Sample records for risk factor scoring

  1. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  2. Risk factors affecting injury severity determined by the MAIS score. (United States)

    Ferreira, Sara; Amorim, Marco; Couto, Antonio


    . This study showed the impact of variables, such as the presence of blood alcohol, the use of protection devices, the type of crash, and the site characteristics, on the injury severity classified according to the MAIS score. Additionally, the sex and age of the victims were analyzed as risk factors, showing that elderly and male road users are highly associated with MAIS 3+ injuries. The comparison between the marginal effects of the variables estimated by the MAIS and LHS models showed significant differences. In addition to the differences in the magnitude of impact of each variable, we found that the impact of the road environment variable was dependent on the injury severity classification. The differences in the effects of risk factors between the classifications highlight the importance of using a reliable classification of injury severity. Additionally, the relationship between LHS and MAIS levels is quite different among countries, supporting the previous conclusion that bias is expected in the assessment of risk factors if an injury severity classification other than MAIS is used.

  3. Modified Framingham Risk Factor Score for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. (United States)

    Urowitz, Murray B; Ibañez, Dominique; Su, Jiandong; Gladman, Dafna D


    The traditional Framingham Risk Factor Score (FRS) underestimates the risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to determine whether an adjustment to the FRS would more accurately reflect the higher prevalence of CAD among patients with SLE. Patients with SLE without a previous history of CAD or diabetes followed regularly at the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic were included. A modified FRS (mFRS) was calculated by multiplying the items by 1.5, 2, 3, or 4. In the first part of the study, using one-third of all eligible patients, we evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the FRS and the different multipliers for the mFRS. In the second part of the study, using the remaining 2/3 of the eligible patients, we compared the predictive ability of the FRS to the mFRS. In the third part of the study, we assessed the prediction for CAD in a time-dependent analysis of the FRS and mFRS. There were 905 women (89.3%) with a total of 95 CAD events included. In part 1, we determined that a multiplier of 2 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity. In part 2, 2.4% of the patients were classified as moderate/high risk based on the classic FRS and 17.3% using the 2FRS (the FRS with a multiplier of 2). In part 3, a time-dependent covariate analysis for the prediction of the first CAD event revealed an HR of 3.22 (p = 0.07) for the classic FRS and 4.37 (p mFRS in which each item is multiplied by 2 more accurately predicts CAD in patients with SLE.

  4. The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk. (United States)

    Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A


    We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

  5. Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

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    Abdo Karim Tourkmani


    Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

  6. Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai


    BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

  7. The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects. (United States)

    Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S


    Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

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    Andrew Dalton


    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  9. Association of mallampatti score as a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naqvi, S.U.; Shahab, A.; Zia, S.; Adil, S.O.; Tariq, S.


    Objectives: To determine the association of Mallampatti Score as a risk factor for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). Methodology: This is a prospective questionnaire based survey included 103 individuals Results: Mean BMI of patients was 23.83+-6.03 kg/m2. There were 28 (27.2%) overweight and 22 (21.4%) obese patients. High risk on Berlin questionnaire was found in 12 (11.7%) patients. Both Berlin Questionnaire and Epworth questioner showed a negative association with Mallampati; the low risk group of these variables in our study with a p-value of 0.034 and 0.016 respectively i.e they are good for exclusion of OSA if found negative. Comparison of general characteristics with Mallampatti score and snoring showed significant association among patients with >25 years of age (p=0.02), low risk of Berlin score (p=0.034) and normal Epworth Sleep Score (p=0.016). Fifteen (14.5%) of overweight and obese individuals had higher Mallampatti score III and lV but the P-values were not significant (0.283 and 0.386). Conclusion: There is strong association between high Mallampatti score and O.S.A. Therefore we suggest that high mallampatti can be taken as a risk factor / screening tool limitation for O.S.A. (author)

  10. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality. (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro


    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Histological scoring and associated risk factors of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. (United States)

    Majid, N; Ali, Z; Rahman, M R; Akhter, A; Rajib, R C; Ahmad, F; Sharmin, S; Akond, A K; Huq, N


    Non alcoholic steatohepatitis is a hepatic disorder with histological features of alcohol induced liver disease that occurs in individual who do not consume significant alcohol. Liver biopsy is an important part of the evaluation in term of both grade & stage. A cross sectional study was carried out in the department of Pathology, Dhaka Medical College, Dhaka & department of Hepatology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) from July 2007 to June 2009. Total 55 adult subjects of both sex were included on the basis of predefined inclusion & exclusion criteria in this study to evaluate the histological pattern of non alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its correlation with risk factors. Liver biopsy was done and H & E and Masson's Trichrome stain slides were examined to evaluate the grade and stage of NAFLD. Scoring and semiquantitative assessment of steatosis and NAFLD severity was done according to Kleiner scale known as NAFLD activity score (NAS). The results of Pearson correlation showed only BMI and triglyceride level significantly correlated with NAS score. The results of Spearman's rank correlation showed that BMI, central obesity, triglyceridaemia and age significantly correlated with staging of fibrosis. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that variation of NAS depend on BMI and triglyceride level. The study also revealed that risk factors contributed about 29% risk for the occurrence of non alcoholic steatohepatitis.

  12. Modelo predictivo de "score" de calcio alto en pacientes con factores de riesgo cardiovascular Predictive model of high calcium score in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

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    Gloria Franco


    prueba del score de calcio coronario a un paciente con factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Se puede observar que muchos de los factores de riesgo que se correlacionan con un valor elevado de "score" de calcio coronario pueden ser modificables: cesar el hábito de fumar o realizar ejercicio.Introduction: it has been found through multiple studies that coronary calcium score is a good predictor of coronary disease in asymptomatic individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors; therefore it would be ideal to perform this test in order to stratify its risk, but due to economic factors this is not possible in most cases. The model presented allows predicting the probability that a patient may have a high coronary calcium score by means of his cardiovascular risk factors. The originality of the model is that it also comprises "protector" factors that diminish such probability. Methods: study of cases and controls in asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors to whom a PCC had been performed. The cases are patients with coronary calcium score greater than percentile 75 for his age and gender; the control case relationship is 2:1. Results: ages ranged between 35 and 75 years; 14.4% were female; 44.4% had family history of CHD; 34.4% were hypertensive; 38.9% had high total cholesterol; 24.4% had HDL cholesterol under 40 mg/dl; 33.3% had LDL cholesterol greater than 160 mg/dl; 25.6% were cigarette smokers; 23.3% were sedentary; 13.3% were periodical alcohol consumers; 15.6% were obese (BMI > 30; 18.9% exercised periodically and 34.4% received statins. Cardiovascular risk factors correlated with high coronary calcium score are recorded in table 1. In the logistic regression model, factors having a p table 2 are obtained. Expression for the model would be: The values of ci values are 1, if the factor is present and 0 if it is not. Conclusions: this model does not pretend to replace stratification through Framinghan model; on the contrary, it is a complement that

  13. Could symptoms and risk factors diagnose COPD? Development of a Diagnosis Score for COPD

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    Salameh P


    Full Text Available Pascale Salameh,1 Georges Khayat,2 Mirna Waked31Faculties of Pharmacy and of Public Health, Lebanese University, Beirut, 2Faculty of Medicine, Hôtel Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut and Saint Joseph University, Beirut, 3Faculty of Medicine, Saint George Hospital, Beirut and Balamand University, Beirut, LebanonBackground: Diagnosing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD without spirometry is still a challenge. Our objective in this study was to develop a scale for diagnosis of COPD.Methods: Data were taken from a cross-sectional epidemiological study. After reducing chronic respiratory symptoms, a logistic regression was used to select risk factors for and symptoms of COPD. The rounded coefficients generated a Diagnosis Score for COPD (DS-COPD, which was dichotomized and differentiated between COPD and other individuals with respiratory symptoms.Results: We constructed a tool for COPD diagnosis with good properties, comprising 12 items. The area under the curve was 0.849; the positive predictive value was 76% if the DS-COPD was >20 and the negative predictive value was 97% if the DS-COPD was <10. A DS-COPD of 10–19 represented a zone mostly suggestive of no COPD (77%. The score was also inversely correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity.Conclusion: In this study, a tool for diagnosis of COPD was constructed with good properties for use in the epidemiological setting, mainly in cases of low or high scoring. It would be of particular interest in the primary care setting, where spirometry may not be available. Prospective studies and application in clinical settings would be necessary to validate this scale further.Keywords: diagnosis, scale, development, spirometry

  14. A Healthy Lifestyle Score Is Associated with Cardiometabolic and Neuroendocrine Risk Factors among Puerto Rican Adults. (United States)

    Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Falcón, Luis M; Gao, Xiang; Tucker, Katherine L; Mattei, Josiemer


    Although individual healthy lifestyle behaviors may reduce cardiovascular disease risk, few studies have analyzed the combined effect of multiple lifestyle components as one all-inclusive measure on such outcomes, much less in minority populations. We aimed to develop a Healthy Lifestyle Score (HLS) that included several lifestyle recommendations and to test its association with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and allostatic load (AL) and their cardiometabolic and neuroendocrine factors in Puerto Ricans. In a cross-sectional study in 787 Puerto Ricans living in Boston (aged 45-75 y), we developed an HLS that ranged from 0 to 190 (higher score indicative of healthier lifestyle) and included 5 components (diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviors, smoking, social support and network, and sleep). Multivariable-adjusted models were used to test associations between the HLS and biomarkers of dysregulation and odds of MetS and high AL (≥4 out of 10 components). The HLS showed adequate internal consistency (ρ = 0.31-0.69) and was inversely associated with urinary cortisol (β ± SE = -0.22 ± 0.11; P = 0.042), epinephrine (-0.20 ± 0.09; P = 0.017), and norepinephrine (-0.26 ± 0.11; P = 0.016); waist circumference (-0.014 ± 0.004; P = 0.003); and serum insulin (-0.30 ± 0.13; P = 0.028) and positively associated with plasma HDL cholesterol (0.007 ± 0.003; P = 0.021) after adjustment for potential confounders. For each 20-unit increase in HLS, participants had 19% (95% CI: 2%, 33%) and 25% (11%, 36%) lower odds of MetS or AL, respectively. Healthier scores for social support and network and smoking components were associated with lower odds of high AL (P lifestyle components. Following an overall healthy lifestyle that comprises a combination of multiple behaviors may provide stronger protection against MetS and AL in Puerto Rican adults than individual components. The HLS may be a useful tool for examining health-related outcomes. This trial was registered at

  15. Seasonal prevalence, body condition score and risk factors of bovine fasciolosis in South Africa

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    Ishmael Festus Jaja


    Full Text Available Fasciolosis is an important zoonotic disease that is responsible for a significant loss in food resource and animal productivity. The objectives of this study were to determine the seasonal prevalence and risk factors associated with Fasciola infection in cattle. The results were obtained by coprology, antemortem and post-mortem survey of three abattoirs (HTPA1, n = 500, HTPA2, n = 400, and LTPA, n = 220. The seasonal prevalence of Fasciola infection was 10.4%, 12.8% and 10.9%, during summer, 11.2%, 10.8% and 8.6%, during autumn, 9.8%, 6.5% and 5.9% during winter and 8.2%, 7.8% and 5.9%, during spring in the three abattoirs HTPA1, HTPA and LTPA respectively. There was a significant association (p < 0.05 between the intensity of infection and body condition score (BCS of cattle at each abattoir. Factors such as age [HTPA1 (OR = 3.6, CI = 1.2, 10.2, and LTPA (OR = 3.8, CI= 2.4, 6.1], sex [LTPA (OR = 4.2, CI= 2.5, 7.0], breed [HTPA2 (OR = 2.3, CI = 1.3, 4.1 and LTPA (OR = 2.5, CI= 1.3, 5.0] and BCS had significant (p < 0.01–0.001 influence on the prevalence of fasciolosis. In conclusion, the infection with Fasciola spp was higher in the summer than in the winter; a positive association was established between the prevalence of fasciolosis and poor body condition in study animals. This study, therefore, suggests that fasciolosis could be causing substantial production losses, mainly due to cattle weight loss and liver condemnation.

  16. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

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    Pletcher Mark J


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  17. The International Bleeding Risk Score

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    Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.


    The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

  18. Association of malnutrition-inflammation score, dialysis-malnutrition score and serum albumin with novel risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in hemodialysis patients. (United States)

    As'habi, Atefeh; Tabibi, Hadi; Hedayati, Mehdi; Mahdavi-Mazdeh, Mitra; Nozary-Heshmati, Behnaz


    This study was designed to investigate the associations between malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS), dialysis-malnutrition score (DMS) and serum albumin with novel risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in hemodialysis (HD) patients. In this cross-sectional study, 291 HD patients were randomly selected from among 2302 adult HD patients in Tehran HD centers. The MIS and DMS were determined during one of the dialysis sessions in these patients. In addition, 4 mL blood was obtained before dialysis and analyzed for serum albumin and novel risk factors for CVD, including C-reactive protein (CRP), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule type 1 (sICAM-1), soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule type 1 (sVCAM-1), sE-selectin, malondialdehyde (MDA), nitric oxide (NO), endothelin-1 and lipoprotein (a) [Lp (a)]. MIS and DMS were significantly positively correlated with serum CRP (p protein-energy wasting indicators in HD patients are associated with serum CRP and sICAM-1, as two CVD risk factors.

  19. Risk factors and a prognostic score for survival after autologous stem-cell transplantation for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma

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    Bröckelmann, P J; Müller, H; Casasnovas, O


    study (n = 1045), precise and valid risk prognostication in HL patients undergoing ASCT can be achieved with five easily available clinical RFs. The proposed prognostic score hence allows reliable stratification of patients for innovative therapeutic approaches in clinical practice and future trials...... therapeutic approaches, we investigated a comprehensive set of risk factors (RFs) for survival after ASCT. Methods: In this multinational prognostic multivariable modeling study, 23 potential RFs were retrospectively evaluated in HL patients from nine prospective trials with multivariable Cox proportional...... of potential RFs had significant impact on progression-free survival (PFS) with hazard ratios (HR) ranging from 1.39 to 2.22. The multivariable analysis identified stage IV disease, time to relapse ≤3 months, ECOG performance status ≥1, bulk ≥5 cm and inadequate response to salvage chemotherapy [

  20. Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome (United States)

    Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali


    Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

  1. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T


    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  2. Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study. (United States)

    Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann


    While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeşim Coşkun


    Full Text Available AIM: To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1 and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels. METHODS: The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants. IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th week of life was analyzed. The score was established after logistic regression analysis, considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP. A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated. RESULTS: Birth weights (BW, gestational weeks (GW and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC were more frequent, the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP (P<0.05. Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP. Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW (<1250 g, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP. Afterwards, the scoring system was validated on 107 infants. The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%, 74.7% and 79.8% while positive predictive values were 76.3%, 65.5% and 71.6% respectively. CONCLUSION: In addition to BW <1250 g and IVH, formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP. Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

  4. Dietary diversity score is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and serum adiponectin concentrations in patients with metabolic syndrome. (United States)

    Farhangi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad; Jahangiry, Leila


    Metabolic syndrome is associated with cardio-metabolic risk factors and lipid abnormalities. Previous studies evaluated the dietary habits and nutrient intakes among patients with metabolic syndrome; however the association between metabolic risk factors and adiponectin with dietary diversity score (DDS) in patients with metabolic syndrome has not been evaluated yet. Therefore the aim of the current study was to evaluate these relationships among patients with metabolic syndrome. One hundred sixty patients with metabolic syndrome were recruited in the study. The anthropometric parameters including weight, height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured. Serum adiponectin concentration was measured by enzyme- linked immunosorbent assay method (ELISA). Lipid profile and fasting serum glucose concentrations (FSG) were also measured with enzymatic colorimetric methods. Blood pressure was also measured and DDS was calculated using the data obtained from food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Subjects in lower DDS categorizes had significantly lower energy and fiber intake; whereas mean protein intake of subjects in the highest quartile was significantly higher than second quartile. Higher prevalence of obesity was also observed in the top quartiles (P metabolic syndrome components among patients in lower DDS quartiles was significantly higher (P metabolic syndrome. However, for further confirming the findings, more studies are warranted.

  5. Cardiovascular risk and bipolar disorder: factors associated with a positive coronary calcium score in patients with bipolar disorder type 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline R. Wageck


    Full Text Available Objective: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in patients with bipolar disorder. The aim of this study was to evaluate the factors associated with positive coronary calcium score (CCS in individuals with bipolar disorder type 1. Methods: Patients from the Bipolar Disorder Program at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Brazil, underwent computed tomography scanning for calcium score measurement. Clinical and sociodemographic variables were compared between patients according to their CCS status: negative (CCS = 0 or positive (CCS > 0. Poisson regression analysis was used to examine the association of CCS with number of psychiatric hospitalizations. Results: Out of 41 patients evaluated, only 10 had a positive CCS. Individuals in the CCS-positive group were older (55.2±4.2 vs. 43.1±10.0 years; p = 0.001 and had more psychiatric hospitalizations (4.7±3.0 vs. 2.6±2.5; p = 0.04 when compared with CCS- negative subjects. The number of previous psychiatric hospitalizations correlated positively with CCS (p < 0.001. Conclusion: Age and number of psychiatric hospitalizations were significantly associated with higher CCS, which might be a potential method for diagnosis and stratification of cardiovascular disease in bipolar patients. There is a need for increased awareness of risk assessment in this population.

  6. Risk factors for mortality in fournier's gangrene in a general hospital: use of simplified founier gangrene severe index score (SFGSI

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    Carlos Eugênio Lira Tenório

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To evaluate risk factors for mortality in patients with Fournier's gangrene (FG, with emphasis in the Simplified Fournier Gangrene Severe Index Score (SFGSI. Materials and Methods This was a cross-sectional study that was carried out from January 2010 to December 2014, with 124 patients treated for FG in a General Hospital. Several clinical and laboratory variables, including SFGSI, were evaluated and correlated with mortality through univariate analysis and logistic regression. Results Of the 124 patients, 99 were men (79.8%, the mean age was 50.8±19.5 years and the main comorbidity was diabetes mellitus (51.6%. The mortality rate was 25.8%. Variables that presented independent correlation with mortality were the extension of the lesion to the abdomen (OR=4.0, CI=1.10-14.68, p=0.03, hematocrit (OR=0.81, CI=0.73-0.90, p2 result was the largest of the independent predictors of mortality (OR=50.2; CI=13.18-191.47; p2 presented a higher correlation with mortality than any variable tested alone. It seems to be a promising alternative to evaluate predictors of mortality in Fournier's gangrene. The main advantage is easy applicability because it contains only three parameters and can be used immediately after patient's admission.

  7. Risk factors for mortality in fournier's gangrene in a general hospital: use of simplified founier gangrene severe index score (SFGSI). (United States)

    Tenório, Carlos Eugênio Lira; Lima, Salvador Vilar Correia; Albuquerque, Amanda Vasconcelos de; Cavalcanti, Mariana Pauferro; Teles, Flávio


    To evaluate risk factors for mortality in patients with Fournier's gangrene (FG), with emphasis in the Simplified Fournier Gangrene Severe Index Score (SFGSI). This was a cross-sectional study that was carried out from January 2010 to December 2014, with 124 patients treated for FG in a General Hospital. Several clinical and laboratory variables, including SFGSI, were evaluated and correlated with mortality through univariate analysis and logistic regression. Of the 124 patients, 99 were men (79.8%), the mean age was 50.8±19.5 years and the main comorbidity was diabetes mellitus (51.6%). The mortality rate was 25.8%. Variables that presented independent correlation with mortality were the extension of the lesion to the abdomen (OR=4.0, CI=1.10-14.68, p=0.03), hematocrit (OR=0.81, CI=0.73-0.90, p2 result was the largest of the independent predictors of mortality (OR=50.2; CI=13.18-191.47; p2 presented a higher correlation with mortality than any variable tested alone. It seems to be a promising alternative to evaluate predictors of mortality in Fournier's gangrene. The main advantage is easy applicability because it contains only three parameters and can be used immediately after patient's admission. Copyright® by the International Brazilian Journal of Urology.

  8. Bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia: serotype distribution, antimicrobial susceptibility, severity scores, risk factors, and mortality in a single center in Chile

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    Alberto Fica


    Conclusions: BPP had a high case-fatality rate in this group of adult patients with no association to resistant isolates, and a low immunization record. Three independent factors were related to death and the prognostic yield of different severity scores was low.

  9. Risk Factors (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  10. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  11. Risk Factors for the Failure of Spinal Burst Fractures Treated Conservatively According to the Thoracolumbar Injury Classification and Severity Score (TLICS: A Retrospective Cohort Trial.

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    Jieliang Shen

    Full Text Available The management of thoracolumbar (TL burst fractures is still controversial. The thoracolumbar injury classification and severity score (TLICS algorithm is now widely used to guide clinical decision making, however, in clinical practice, we come to realize that TLICS also has its limitations for treating patients with total scores less than 4, for which conservative treatment may not be optimal in all cases.The aim of this study is to identify several risk factors for the failure of conservative treatment of TL burst fractures according to TLICS algorithm.From June 2008 to December 2013, a cohort of 129 patients with T10-l2 TL burst fractures with a TLISC score ≤3 treated non-operatively were identified and included into this retrospective study. Age, sex, pain intensity, interpedicular distance (IPD, canal compromise, loss of vertebral body height and kyphotic angle (KA were selected as potential risk factors and compared between the non-operative success group and the non-operative failure group.One hundred and four patients successfully completed non-operative treatment, the other 25 patients were converted to surgical treatment because of persistent local back pain or progressive neurological deficits during follow-up. Our results showed that age, visual analogue scale (VAS score and IPD, KA were significantly different between the two groups. Furthermore, regression analysis indicated that VAS score and IPD could be considered as significant predictors for the failure of conservative treatment.The recommendation of non-operative treatment for TLICS score ≤3 has limitations in some patients, and VAS score and IPD could be considered as risk factors for the failure of conservative treatment. Thus, conservative treatment should be decided with caution in patients with greater VAS scores or IPD. If non-operative management is decided, a close follow-up is necessary.

  12. Clinical study on HAT and SEDAN score scales and related risk factors for predicting hemorrhagic transformation following thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng WEI


    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the value of HAT and SEDAN score scales in predicting hemorrhagic transformation (HT following the recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke patients and risk factors affecting HT.  Methods A total of 143 patients with acute ischemic stroke underwent rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis within 4.50 h of onset and their clinical data were collected. According to head CT after thrombolysis, patients were divided into HT group (18 cases and non-HT group (125 cases. Single factor analysis was used to assess differences in HAT and SEDAN score scales and related risk factors of ischemic stroke in 2 groups, and further Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of HT. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of HAT and SEDAN score scales in predicting HT.  Results Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of atrial fibrillation (AF, admission systolic blood pressure (SBP, admission blood glucose level, early low density of head CT, thrombolytic time window, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, HAT and SEDAN scores were all risk factors for HT after thrombolysis (P < 0.05, for all. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of AF (OR = 1.677, 95% CI: 1.332-2.111; P = 0.000, admission SBP (OR = 1.102, 95% CI: 1.009-1.204; P = 0.031, admission blood glucose level (OR = 1.870, 95% CI: 1.119-3.125; P = 0.017, thrombolysis time window (OR = 1.030, 95%CI: 1.009-1.052; P = 0.005, NIHSS score (OR = 1.574, 95%CI: 1.186-2.090; P = 0.002, HAT score (OR = 2.515, 95%CI: 1.273-4.970;P = 0.008 and SEDAN score (OR = 2.413, 95%CI: 1.123-5.185; P = 0.024 were risk factors for HT after thrombolysis. ROC curve analysis showed that HAT score could predict HT with 94.40% sensitivity and 41.60% specificity, and area under curve (AUC was 0.70. SEDAN

  13. Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis. (United States)

    Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki


    The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

  14. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.


    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  15. The Mediterranean Diet Score Is More Strongly Associated with Favorable Cardiometabolic Risk Factors over 2 Years Than Other Diet Quality Indexes in Puerto Rican Adults. (United States)

    Mattei, Josiemer; Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Bigornia, Sherman J; Noel, Sabrina E; Tucker, Katherine L


    Background: Multiple diet quality scores have been used to evaluate adherence to specific dietary recommendations or to consumption of healthful foods and nutrients. It remains unknown which score can more strongly predict longitudinal changes in cardiometabolic risk factors. Objective: We aimed to determine associations of 5 diet quality scores [AHA diet score (AHA-DS), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2005, Mediterranean diet score (MeDS), and Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI)] with 2-y changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in adults 45-75 y old. Methods: Data from the Boston Puerto Rican Health Study were analyzed ( n = 1194). Diet quality scores were calculated from a baseline-validated food-frequency questionnaire. Multivariable-adjusted, repeated-subjects, mixed-effects models, adjusted for baseline measures, estimated associations between each z score and 14 individual cardiometabolic factors measured at 2 y. Results: MeDS was significantly associated with lower 2-y waist circumference (β coefficient ± SE: -0.52 ± 0.26, P = 0.048); body mass index (BMI; -0.23 ± 0.08, P = 0.005); log-insulin (-0.06 ± 0.02, P = 0.005); log-homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; -0.05 ± 0.02, P = 0.030), and log-C-reactive protein (-0.13 ± 0.03, P = 0.0002). Similar but weaker associations were observed for the AHEI with BMI, insulin, and HOMA-IR. The AHA-DS was inversely associated with BMI (-0.17 ± 0.08, P = 0.033). Neither the HEI-2005 nor DASH was significantly associated with any variable. Traditional Puerto Rican foods consumed by individuals with high MeDSs included vegetables and meats in homemade soups, orange juice, oatmeal, beans and legumes, fish, whole milk, corn oil, and beer. Conclusions: The MeDS comprises food components and scores associated with a favorable cardiometabolic profile over 2 y in Puerto Rican adults. An overall healthy diet may be particularly beneficial for

  16. Risk of Recurrence and Chemotherapy Benefit for Patients With Node-Negative, Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer: Recurrence Score Alone and Integrated With Pathologic and Clinical Factors (United States)

    Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P.; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F.; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P.; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman


    Purpose The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) –positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. Patients and Methods From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. Results RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). Conclusion RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit. PMID:22010013

  17. Risk of recurrence and chemotherapy benefit for patients with node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: recurrence score alone and integrated with pathologic and clinical factors. (United States)

    Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman


    The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit.

  18. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital. (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E


    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

  19. A web-based survey of erection hardness score and its relationship to aging, sexual behavior, confidence, and risk factors in Japan. (United States)

    Kimura, Masaki; Shimura, Satoru; Tai, Toshihiro; Kobayashi, Hideyuki; Baba, Shiro; Kano, Munehide; Nagao, Koichi


    Erection hardness is an elemental component of men's sexual quality of life that can be easily measured by the Erection Hardness Score (EHS). However, there are few published data regarding EHS, and there is little understanding of its relationships to aging, men's sexual behavior, sexual confidence, and risk factors in Japan. To assess EHS and how it correlates to aging, sexual behaviors, sexual self-confidence, and risk factors in a Japanese population database. A web-based cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted between March and May 2009 in Japan. EHS, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, general health, sexual confidence, frequency of sexual behaviors, and attitudes toward treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED). A total of 7,710 men with a mean age of 39.3 ± 13.0 years participated in this survey. In 6,528 participants who were not using phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors, 3,540 (54.2%) had EHS ≤ 3 and 1,196 (18.3%) had EHS ≤ 2. We found a significant age-dependent decrease in EHS, sexual confidence, and frequency of sexual activities. Sexual confidence was strongly associated with higher EHS but was also associated with older age groups, presence of offspring, awareness of better general health, and greater frequency of sexual activity. In age-adjusted multivariate logistic regression, risk factors for a lower EHS (defined as EHS ≤ 2) were heavy smoking, which was defined as more than two packs per day (odds ratio [OR], 1.7) or a history of metabolic syndrome (OR, 1.4), hypertension (OR, 1.2), and diabetes mellitus (OR, 1.4). EHS correlates to various elements, such as aging, sexual behaviors, sexual confidence, and ED-related risk factors, and can be a valuable tool in clinical practice for monitoring and treating ED and thereby improving the quality of life for men and their sexual partners. Kimura M, Shimura S, Tai T, Kobayashi H, Baba S, Kano M, and Nagao K. A web-based survey of Erection Hardness Score and its relationship to aging, sexual

  20. Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS). (United States)

    Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L


    Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions:

  1. The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery. (United States)

    Haga, Yoshio; Ikejiri, Koji; Wada, Yasuo; Ikenaga, Masakazu; Koike, Shoichiro; Nakamura, Seiji; Koseki, Masato


    Surgical audit is an essential task for the estimation of postoperative outcome and comparison of quality of care. Previous studies on surgical audits focused on short-term outcomes, such as postoperative mortality. We propose a surgical audit evaluating long-term outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. The predictive model for this audit is designated as 'Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Colorectal Cancer (EPOS-CC)'. Thirty-one tumor-related and physiological variables were prospectively collected in 889 patients undergoing elective resection for colorectal cancer between April 2005 and April 2007 in 16 Japanese hospitals. Postoperative overall survival was assessed over a 5-years period. The EPOS-CC score was established by selecting significant variables in a uni- and multivariate analysis and allocating a risk-adjusted multiplication factor to each variable using Cox regression analysis. For validation, the EPOS-CC score was compared to the predictive power of UICC stage. Inter-hospital variability of the observed-to-estimated 5-years survival was assessed to estimate quality of care. Among the 889 patients, 804 (90%) completed the 5-years follow-up. Univariate analysis displayed a significant correlation with 5-years survival for 14 physiological and nine tumor-related variables (p model for the prediction of survival. Risk-adjusted multiplication factors between 1.5 (distant metastasis) and 0.16 (serum sodium level) were accorded to the different variables. The predictive power of EPOS-CC was superior to the one of UICC stage; area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90 for EPOS-CC, and 0.80, 0.76-0.83 for UICC stage, p < 0.001. Quality of care did not differ between hospitals. The EPOS-CC score including the independent variables age, performance status, serum sodium level, TNM stage, and lymphatic invasion is superior to the UICC stage in the prediction of 5-years overall survival. This higher accuracy might be explained by the

  2. Comparison of cardiovascular risk factors and biochemical profile in patients with cardiac syndrome X and obstructive coronary artery disease: A propensity score-matched study

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    Ali Vasheghani-Farahani


    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 BACKGROUND: This study was designed to compare the frequency of conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors and clinical biochemistry profile in patients with cardiac syndrome X (CSX and obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on patients with typical angina and positive exercise tolerance test undergoing coronary angiography in our center. 342 consecutive patients with CSX were enrolled into this study and were matched regarding age and sex with 342 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and also 342 patients with chronic stable angina (SA. Cardiovascular risk factors as well as biochemistry profile of the patients were recorded. RESULTS: Mean age of the studied patients was 53.0 years and 41.5% were male. There was no significant difference between the CSX patients and CAD patients regarding body mass index (BMI. Frequency of diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of premature CAD and hypertension was significantly lower in patients with CSX than ACS and SA patients. Patients with CSX had significantly higher levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-cholesterol than comparators while the levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglyceride and fasting blood sugar (FBS were significantly lower in patients with CSX than CAD patients. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that CSX patients had substantially lower frequency of all conventional CVD risk factors than patients with obstructive CAD. This might aid in developing novel scoring systems or appropriateness criteria for angiographic evaluation of patients with typical angina and positive exercise test in order to reduce the rate of negative results.   Keywords: Cardiac Syndrome X, Microvascular Dysfunction

  3. The Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and the Framingham Risk Score in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Intervention Over the Last 17 Years by Gender: Time-trend Analysis From the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry

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    Moo-Sik Lee


    Full Text Available Objectives: This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI patients at the Mayo Clinic. Methods: We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Results: Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Conclusions: Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.



    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI


    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  5. Noncoronary Measures Enhance the Predictive Value of Cardiac CT Above Traditional Risk Factors and CAC Score in the General Population. (United States)

    Mahabadi, Amir A; Lehmann, Nils; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Pundt, Noreen; Dykun, Iryna; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Moebus, Susanne; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund; Kälsch, Hagen


    The aim of this study was to determine whether noncoronary measures from cardiac computed tomography (CT) may enhance the prognostic value of this imaging technology. When cardiac CT is performed for quantification of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, information on other cardiac and thoracic structures is available. Participants without known cardiovascular disease from the prospective population based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study underwent noncontrast cardiac CT for CAC score quantification. From CT, epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume, left ventricular and left atrial (LA) axial area index, ascending and descending aortic diameters, as well as aortic valve, mitral ring, and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) were assessed. Incident cardiovascular events included myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. The prognostic value of CT-derived parameters was assessed by Cox regression analysis, receiver operating characteristics, and net reclassification improvement. From 3,630 subjects (59 ± 8 years of age, 46% male), 241 (6.6%) developed a cardiovascular event during 9.9 ± 2.6 years of follow-up. In multivariable Cox regression analysis including Framingham Risk Score, CAC (as log[CAC + 1]), and CT parameters, LA index (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.22 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 1.41] per SD; p = 0.010) and EAT volume (HR: 1.15 [95% CI: 1.01 to 1.30] per SD; p = 0.031) were significantly associated with incident events. In addition, presence of TAC showed an elevated event rate (HR: 1.33 [95% CI: 0.97 to 1.81]; p = 0.08), whereas all other CT-derived parameters showed no relevant association. The LA index, EAT volume, and presence of TAC together improved the prediction of events over Framingham Risk Score and CAC in receiver operating characteristics analysis (area under the curve: 0.749 to 0.764; p = 0.011), and let to a significant net reclassification improvement (HR: 38.0%; 95% CI: 25.1% to 50.8%). Assessment of LA index, EAT

  6. Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation. (United States)

    Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro


    No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

  7. Risk score for contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghani, Amal Abdel; Tohamy, Khalid Y.


    Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is an important cause of acute renal failure. Identification of risk factors of CIN and creating a simple risk scoring for CIN after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important. A prospective single center study was conducted in Kuwait chest disease hospital. All patients admitted to chest disease hospital for PCI from March to May 2005 were included in the study. Total of 247 patients were randomly assigned for the development dataset and 100 for the validation set using the simple random method. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 5.52%. Using multivariate analysis; basal Serum creatinine, shock, female gender, multivessel PCI, and diabetes mellitus were identified as risk factors. Scores assigned to different variables yielded basal creatinine > 115 micron mol/L with the highest score(7), followed by shock (3), female gender, multivessel PCI and diabetes mellitus had the same score (2). Patients were further risk stratified into low risk score ( 1 2). The developed CIN model demonstrated good discriminative power in the validation population. In conclusion, use of a simple risk score for CIN can predict the probability of CIN after PCI; this however needs further validation in larger multicenter trials. (author)

  8. Hemorrhage recurrence risk factors in cerebral amyloid angiopathy: Comparative analysis of the overall small vessel disease severity score versus individual neuroimaging markers. (United States)

    Boulouis, Gregoire; Charidimou, Andreas; Pasi, Marco; Roongpiboonsopit, Duangnapa; Xiong, Li; Auriel, Eitan; van Etten, Ellis S; Martinez-Ramirez, Sergi; Ayres, Alison; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin M; Rosand, Jonathan; Goldstein, Joshua N; Gurol, M Edip; Greenberg, Steven M; Viswanathan, Anand


    An MRI-based score of total small vessel disease burden (CAA-SVD-Score) in cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) has been demonstrated to correlate with severity of pathologic changes. Evidence suggests that CAA-related intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) recurrence risk is associated with specific disease imaging manifestations rather than overall severity. We compared the correlation between the CAA-SVD-Score with the risk of recurrent CAA-related lobar ICH versus the predictive role of each of its components. Consecutive patients with CAA-related ICH from a single-center prospective cohort were analyzed. Radiological markers of CAA related SVD damage were quantified and categorized according to the CAA-SVD-Score (0-6 points). Subjects were followed prospectively for recurrent symptomatic ICH. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between the CAA-SVD-Score as well as each of the individual MRI signatures of CAA and the risk of recurrent ICH. In 229 CAA patients with ICH, a total of 56 recurrent ICH events occurred during a median follow-up of 2.8years [IQR 0.9-5.4years, 781 person-years). Higher CAA-SVD-Score (HR=1.26 per additional point, 95%CI [1.04-1.52], p=0.015) and older age were independently associated with higher ICH recurrence risk. Analysis of individual markers of CAA showed that CAA-SVD-Score findings were due to the independent effect of disseminated superficial siderosis (HR for disseminated cSS vs none: 2.89, 95%CI [1.47-5.5], p=0.002) and high degree of perivascular spaces enlargement (RR=3.50-95%CI [1.04-21], p=0.042). In lobar CAA-ICH patients, higher CAA-SVD-Score does predict recurrent ICH. Amongst individual elements of the score, superficial siderosis and dilated perivascular spaces are the only markers independently associated with ICH recurrence, contributing to the evidence for distinct CAA phenotypes singled out by neuro-imaging manifestations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Heart disease - risk factors (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  10. The prediction of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients by electrocardiogram (ECG) dispersion mapping compared with established risk factors and predictive scores--a pilot study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, John


    ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that analyzes low amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). This study compared the ability of ECG-DM to predict in-hospital mortality with traditional risk factors such as age, vital signs and co-morbid diagnoses, as well as three predictive scores: the Simple Clinical Score (SCS)--based on clinical and ECG findings, and two Medical Admission Risk System scores--one based on vital signs and laboratory data (MARS), and one only on laboratory data (LD).

  11. Risk factors. (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S


    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  12. Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score. (United States)

    Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Gilman, Robert H; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio A; Muñoz-Retamozo, Paola V; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio


    Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.

  13. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise


    . AIM: To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical...... restraint. METHODS: The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. RESULTS: The three sub-scales (Confounders......, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. CONCLUSIONS: MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items...

  14. High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Yosaputra


    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

  15. Lower bounds to the reliabilities of factor score estimators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hessen, D.J.


    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone’s factor score estimators, Bartlett’s factor score

  16. Understanding factors that influence the use of risk scoring instruments in the management of patients with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the Netherlands: a qualitative study of health care practitioners' perceptions. (United States)

    Engel, Josien; Heeren, Marie-Julie; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine C; Wagner, Cordula


    Cardiac risk scores estimate a patient's risk of future cardiac events or death. They are developed to inform treatment decisions of patients diagnosed with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Despite recommending their use in guidelines and evidence of their prognostic value, they seem underused in practice. The purpose of the study was to gain insight in the motivation for implementing cardiac risk scores, and perceptions of health care practitioners towards the use of these instruments in clinical practice. This qualitative study involved semi-structured interviews with 31 health care practitioners at 11 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. Participants were approached through purposive sampling to represent a broad range of participant- and hospital characteristics, and included cardiologists, medical residents, medical interns, nurse practitioners and an emergency physician. The Pettigrew and Whipp Framework for strategic change was used as a theoretical basis. Data were initially analysed through open coding to avoid forcing data into categories predetermined by the framework. Cardiac risk score use was dependent on several factors, including IT support, clinical relevance for daily practice, rotation of staff and workload. Both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers for implementation were identified. Reminders, feedback and IT solutions were strategies used to improve and sustain the use of these instruments. The scores were seen as valuable support systems in improving uniformity in treatment practices, educating interns, conducting research and quantifying a practitioner's own risk assessment. However, health care practitioners varied in their perceptions regarding the influence of cardiac risk scores on treatment decisions. Health care practitioners disagree on the value of cardiac risk scores for clinical practice. Practitioners driven by intrinsic motivations predominantly experienced benefits in policy-making, education and research

  17. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys. (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta


    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. External validation of the NOBLADS score, a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomonori Aoki

    Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of NOBLADS, a severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB prediction model which we had previously derived when working at a different institution, using an external validation cohort. NOBLADS comprises the following factors: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, antiplatelet drug use, albumin < 3.0 g/dL, disease score ≥ 2, and syncope.We retrospectively analyzed 511 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the University of Tokyo Hospital, from January 2009 to August 2016. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs-AUCs for severe bleeding (continuous and/or recurrent bleeding were compared between the original derivation cohort and the external validation cohort.Severe LGIB occurred in 44% of patients. Several clinical factors were significantly different between the external and derivation cohorts (p < 0.05, including background, laboratory data, NOBLADS scores, and diagnosis. The NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.74 in the external validation cohort and one of 0.77 in the derivation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score predicted the risk for blood transfusion need (AUC, 0.71, but was not adequate for predicting intervention need (AUC, 0.54. The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in patients with a score ≥ 5 than in those with a score < 5 (AUC, 0.83.Although the external validation cohort clinically differed from the derivation cohort in many ways, we confirmed the moderately high generalizability of NOBLADS, a clinical risk score for severe LGIB. Appropriate triage using this score may support early decision-making in various hospitals.

  19. Well-being and employee health-how employees' well-being scores interact with demographic factors to influence risk of hospitalization or an emergency room visit. (United States)

    Gandy, William M; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Rula, Elizabeth Y


    The goal of this study was to determine the relationship between individual well-being and risk of a hospital event in the subsequent year. The authors hypothesized an inverse relationship in which low well-being predicts higher likelihood of hospital use. The study specifically sought to understand how well-being segments and demographic variables interact in defining risk of a hospital event (inpatient admission or emergency room visit) in an employed population. A retrospective study design was conducted with data from 8835 employees who completed a Well-Being Assessment questionnaire based on the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the impact of Individual Well-Being Score (IWBS) segments and member demographics on hazard ratios (HRs) for a hospital event during the 12 months following assessment completion. Significant main effects were found for the influence of IWBS segments, sex, education, and relationship status on HRs of a hospital event, but not for age. However, further analysis revealed significant interactions between age and IWBS segments (P=0.005) and between age and sex (Pwell-being and higher risk of an event in employees ages 44 years and older is mitigated in younger age groups. These results suggest that youth attenuates the risk engendered in poor well-being; therefore, methods to maintain or improve well-being as individuals age presents a strong opportunity for reducing hospital events.

  20. Well-Being and Employee Health—How Employees' Well-Being Scores Interact with Demographic Factors to Influence Risk of Hospitalization or an Emergency Room Visit (United States)

    Gandy, William M.; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E.


    Abstract The goal of this study was to determine the relationship between individual well-being and risk of a hospital event in the subsequent year. The authors hypothesized an inverse relationship in which low well-being predicts higher likelihood of hospital use. The study specifically sought to understand how well-being segments and demographic variables interact in defining risk of a hospital event (inpatient admission or emergency room visit) in an employed population. A retrospective study design was conducted with data from 8835 employees who completed a Well-Being Assessment questionnaire based on the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the impact of Individual Well-Being Score (IWBS) segments and member demographics on hazard ratios (HRs) for a hospital event during the 12 months following assessment completion. Significant main effects were found for the influence of IWBS segments, sex, education, and relationship status on HRs of a hospital event, but not for age. However, further analysis revealed significant interactions between age and IWBS segments (P=0.005) and between age and sex (Pwell-being and higher risk of an event in employees ages 44 years and older is mitigated in younger age groups. These results suggest that youth attenuates the risk engendered in poor well-being; therefore, methods to maintain or improve well-being as individuals age presents a strong opportunity for reducing hospital events. (Population Health Management 2014;17:13–20) PMID:23560493

  1. Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. (United States)

    Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D


    The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase ( (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity

  2. Risk Factors for Scleroderma (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  3. Risk Factors and Prevention (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  4. A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons. (United States)

    Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A


    To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

  5. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.


    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  6. Prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy: validation of Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score and impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus. (United States)

    Hu, Meng-Bo; Yang, Tian; Hu, Ji-Meng; Zhu, Wen-Hui; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Ding, Qiang


    Our aim was to determine the prognostic factors in Chinese patients with prostate cancer receiving primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT), validate the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score, and investigate the impacts of pre-existing obesity and diabetes mellitus (DM). The study enrolled Chinese patients diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma and treated with bilateral orchiectomy as PADT at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China), from January 2003 to December 2015. The overall survival (OS) and prognostic value of J-CAPRA score, pre-existing obesity, DM, and various clinicopathological variables were analyzed. Of the 435 patients enrolled, 174 (40.0%) deaths occurred during follow-up; 3- and 5-year OS were 74.0 and 58.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified that higher Gleason score and metastasis were both correlated with worse OS and that higher J-CAPRA score was correlated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.110, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.035-1.190, P = 0.003). Different risk categories based on J-CAPRA score showed good stratification in OS (log-rank P = 0.015). In subgroup analysis, pre-existing obesity as a protective factor in younger patients (age ≤ 65, HR 0.271, 95% CI 0.075-0.980, P = 0.046) and pre-existing DM as a risk factor in older patients (> 75, HR 1.854, 95% CI 1.026-3.351, P = 0.041) for OS were recognized, and the prediction accuracy of J-CAPRA was elevated after incorporating pre-existing obesity and DM. The J-CAPRA score presented with good OS differentiation among Chinese patients under PADT. Younger patients (age ≤ 65) had better OS with pre-existing obesity, while older patients (age > 75) had worse OS with pre-existing DM.

  7. Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke. (United States)

    Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Singhal, Aneesh B; Wang, Yongjun


    Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts

  8. The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain. (United States)

    Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier


    In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok


    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk

  10. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Seonam University College of Medicine, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)


    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk.

  11. Lower Bounds to the Reliabilities of Factor Score Estimators. (United States)

    Hessen, David J


    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators, Bartlett's factor score estimators, and McDonald's factor score estimators are derived and conditions are given under which these lower bounds are equal. The relative performance of the derived lower bounds is studied using classic example data sets. The results show that estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators are greater than or equal to the estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Bartlett's and McDonald's factor score estimators.

  12. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks. (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P


    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constangioara Alexandru


    Full Text Available Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  14. Stroke - risk factors (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  15. Delirium risk stratification in consecutive unselected admissions to acute medicine: validation of a susceptibility score based on factors identified externally in pooled data for use at entry to the acute care pathway. (United States)

    Pendlebury, Sarah T; Lovett, Nicola G; Smith, Sarah C; Wharton, Rose; Rothwell, Peter M


    recognition of prevalent delirium and prediction of incident delirium may be difficult at first assessment. We therefore aimed to validate a pragmatic delirium susceptibility (for any, prevalent and incident delirium) score for use in front-line clinical practice in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. consecutive patients aged ≥65 years over two 8-week periods (2010-12) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The delirium susceptibility score was the sum of weighted risk factors derived using pooled data from UK-NICE guidelines: age >80 = 2, cognitive impairment (cognitive score below cut-off/dementia) = 2, severe illness (systemic inflammatory response syndrome) = 1, infection = 1, visual impairment = 1. Score reliability was determined by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 years (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), AUC was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) for any delirium; 0.71 (0.64-0.79), for prevalent delirium; 0.81 (0.70-0.92), for incident delirium; odds ratios (ORs) for risk score 5-7 versus delirium, 8.1 (2.2-29.7), P = 0.002 for prevalent delirium, and 25.0 (3.0-208.9) P = 0.003 for incident delirium, with corresponding relative risks of 5.4, 4.7 and 13. Higher risk scores were associated with frailty markers, increased care needs and poor outcomes. the externally derived delirium susceptibility score reliably identified prevalent and incident delirium using clinical data routinely available at initial patient assessment and might therefore aid recognition of vulnerability in acute medical admissions early in the acute care pathway. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.

  16. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.


    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  17. Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences. (United States)

    Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip


    To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

  18. Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia. (United States)

    Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K


    Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  19. Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, J.M.; de Geus, E.J.C.; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.


    Background and Aims: A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods: Summary-level

  20. The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use. (United States)

    Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A


    Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

  1. Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score. (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David


    In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock


    associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated......DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared......North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual...

  3. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores (United States)

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond


    “Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

  4. Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi? (United States)

    Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P


    Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Longitudinal Factor Score Estimation Using the Kalman Filter. (United States)

    Oud, Johan H.; And Others


    How longitudinal factor score estimation--the estimation of the evolution of factor scores for individual examinees over time--can profit from the Kalman filter technique is described. The Kalman estimates change more cautiously over time, have lower estimation error variances, and reproduce the LISREL program latent state correlations more…

  6. A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Stanzani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

  7. A Clinical Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation in a Biracial Prospective Cohort (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study)


    Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Chambless, Lloyd E.; Crow, Richard; Ambrose, Marietta; Alonso, Alvaro


    A risk score for AF has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study; however the applicability of this risk score, derived from whites, to predict new-onset AF in non-whites is uncertain. Therefore, we developed a 10-year risk score for new-onset AF using risk factors commonly measured in clinical practice using 14,546 individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective community-based cohort of blacks and whites in the United States. During 10 years of follow-up, 5...

  8. A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Guasch-Ferré

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

  9. Application of the FOUR Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Analysis. (United States)

    Braksick, Sherri A; Hemphill, J Claude; Mandrekar, Jay; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Fugate, Jennifer E


    The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a validated scale describing the essentials of a coma examination, including motor response, eye opening and eye movements, brainstem reflexes, and respiratory pattern. We incorporated the FOUR Score into the existing ICH Score and evaluated its accuracy of risk assessment in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Consecutive patients admitted to our institution from 2009 to 2012 with spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The ICH Score was calculated using patient age, hemorrhage location, hemorrhage volume, evidence of intraventricular extension, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The FOUR Score was then incorporated into the ICH Score as a substitute for the GCS (ICH Score FS ). The ability of the 2 scores to predict mortality at 1 month was then compared. In total, 274 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years (interquartile range 60-82) and 138 (50.4%) were male. Overall mortality at 1 month was 28.8% (n = 79). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .91 for the ICH Score and .89 for the ICH Score FS . For ICH Scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, 1-month mortality was 4.2%, 29.9%, 62.5%, 95.0%, and 100%. In the ICH Score FS model, mortality was 10.7%, 26.5%, 64.5%, 88.9%, and 100% for scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The ICH Score and the ICH Score FS predict 1-month mortality with comparable accuracy. As the FOUR Score provides additional clinical information regarding patient status, it may be a reasonable substitute for the GCS into the ICH Score. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. [Risk factors of schizophrenia]. (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana


    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  11. Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk. (United States)

    Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H


    The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (pmovements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. A modified risk assessment scoring system for post laser in situ keratomileusis ectasia in topographically normal patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Miraftab


    Conclusion: Our modified ectasia risk scoring system for patients with normal corneal topography can predict post LASIK ectasia risk with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. However, there are still unidentified risk factors for which further studies are required.

  13. Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score. (United States)

    Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A


    Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and 13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita


    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  15. Risk factors for neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.


    A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

  16. Understanding factors that influence the use of risk scoring instruments in the management of patients with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the Netherlands: a qualitative study of health care practitioners’ perceptions.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engel, J.; Heeren, M.J.; Wulp, I. van der; Bruijne, M.C. de; Wagner, C.


    Background Cardiac risk scores estimate a patient’s risk of future cardiac events or death. They are developed to inform treatment decisions of patients diagnosed with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Despite recommending their use in guidelines and

  17. The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery. (United States)

    Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T


    A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  18. Relationship between Cardiovascular Risk Score and Traditional and Nontraditional Cardiometabolic Parameters in Obese Adolescent Girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klisic Aleksandra


    Full Text Available Background: Since the cardiovascular (CV risk score in the young population, children and adolescents, is underestimated, especially in developing countries such as Montenegro, where a strong interaction exists between the genetically conditioned CV risk and environmental factors, the purpose of this study was to estimate CV risk in apparently healthy adolescent girls. Moreover, we aimed to test some new, emerging CV risk factors and their interaction with the traditional ones, such as obesity. Precisely, we aimed to assess the impact of low bilirubin levels, as a routine biochemical parameter, as an additional risk factor for atherosclerotic disease in the adult phase.

  19. Some Results on Mean Square Error for Factor Score Prediction (United States)

    Krijnen, Wim P.


    For the confirmatory factor model a series of inequalities is given with respect to the mean square error (MSE) of three main factor score predictors. The eigenvalues of these MSE matrices are a monotonic function of the eigenvalues of the matrix gamma[subscript rho] = theta[superscript 1/2] lambda[subscript rho] 'psi[subscript rho] [superscript…

  20. A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc). (United States)

    Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B


    The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

  1. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei


    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  2. Prospects for using risk scores in polygenic medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn M. Lewis


    Full Text Available Editorial summary Genome-wide association studies have made strides in identifying common variation associated with disease. The modest effect sizes preclude risk prediction based on single genetic variants, but polygenic risk scores that combine thousands of variants show some predictive ability across a range of complex traits and diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, we consider the potential for translation to clinical use.

  3. Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies. (United States)

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim


    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

  4. Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding. (United States)

    Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C


    Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  5. Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test. (United States)

    Curtis, David


    Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

  6. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

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    Polovina Snežana


    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  7. Spinal appearance questionnaire: factor analysis, scoring, reliability, and validity testing. (United States)

    Carreon, Leah Y; Sanders, James O; Polly, David W; Sucato, Daniel J; Parent, Stefan; Roy-Beaudry, Marjolaine; Hopkins, Jeffrey; McClung, Anna; Bratcher, Kelly R; Diamond, Beverly E


    Cross sectional. This study presents the factor analysis of the Spinal Appearance Questionnaire (SAQ) and its psychometric properties. Although the SAQ has been administered to a large sample of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) treated surgically, its psychometric properties have not been fully evaluated. This study presents the factor analysis and scoring of the SAQ and evaluates its psychometric properties. The SAQ and the Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) were administered to AIS patients who were being observed, braced or scheduled for surgery. Standard demographic data and radiographic measures including Lenke type and curve magnitude were also collected. Of the 1802 patients, 83% were female; with a mean age of 14.8 years and mean initial Cobb angle of 55.8° (range, 0°-123°). From the 32 items of the SAQ, 15 loaded on two factors with consistent and significant correlations across all Lenke types. There is an Appearance (items 1-10) and an Expectations factor (items 12-15). Responses are summed giving a range of 5 to 50 for the Appearance domain and 5 to 20 for the Expectations domain. The Cronbach's α was 0.88 for both domains and Total score with a test-retest reliability of 0.81 for Appearance and 0.91 for Expectations. Correlations with major curve magnitude were higher for the SAQ Appearance and SAQ Total scores compared to correlations between the SRS Appearance and SRS Total scores. The SAQ and SRS-22 Scores were statistically significantly different in patients who were scheduled for surgery compared to those who were observed or braced. The SAQ is a valid measure of self-image in patients with AIS with greater correlation to curve magnitude than SRS Appearance and Total score. It also discriminates between patients who require surgery from those who do not.

  8. Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten


    Several risk scores for disease progression in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma (SMM) patients have been proposed, however, all have been developed using single center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to Multiple Myeloma (MM) for SMM we analyzed a nationwide population......-based cohort of 321 newly diagnosed SMM patients registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis significantly influenced......-high risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥ 30g/l, we created a scoring system to identify low, intermediate and high risk SMM. This first population-based study of SMM patients confirms that an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression...

  9. Two acute kidney injury risk scores for critically ill cancer patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. (United States)

    Xing, Xue-Zhong; Wang, Hai-Jun; Huang, Chu-Lin; Yang, Quan-Hui; Qu, Shi-Ning; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Hao; Gao, Yong; Xiao, Qing-Ling; Sun, Ke-Lin


    Several risk scoures have been used in predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) of patients undergoing general or specific operations such as cardiac surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the use of two AKI risk scores in patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery but required intensive care. The clinical data of patients who had been admitted to ICU during the first 24 hours of ICU stay between September 2009 and August 2010 at the Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College were retrospectively collected and analyzed. AKI was diagnosed based on the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) criteria. Two AKI risk scores were calculated: Kheterpal and Abelha factors. The incidence of AKI was 10.3%. Patients who developed AKI had a increased ICU mortality of 10.9% vs. 1.0% and an in-hospital mortality of 13.0 vs. 1.5%, compared with those without AKI. There was a significant difference between the classification of Kheterpal's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (PAbelha's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (P=0.499). Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.655±0.043 (P=0.001, 95% confidence interval: 0.571-0.739) for Kheterpal's AKI risk score and 0.507±0.044 (P=0.879, 95% confidence interval: 0.422-0.592) for Abelha's AKI risk score. Kheterpal's AKI risk scores are more accurate than Abelha's AKI risk scores in predicting the occurrence of AKI in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery with moderate predictive capability.

  10. [Pathological gambling: risk factors]. (United States)

    Bouju, G; Grall-Bronnec, M; Landreat-Guillou, M; Venisse, J-L


    In France, consumption of gambling games increased by 148% between 1960 and 2005. In 2004, gamblers lost approximately 0.9% of household income, compared to 0.4% in 1960. This represents approximately 134 Euros per year and per head. In spite of this important increase, the level remains lower than the European average (1%). However, gambling practices may continue to escalate in France in the next few years, particularly with the recent announce of the legalisation of online games and sports betting. With the spread of legalised gambling, pathological gambling rates may increase in France in the next years, in response to more widely available and more attractive gambling opportunities. In this context, there is a need for better understanding of the risk factors that are implicated in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. This paper briefly describes the major risk factors for pathological gambling by examining the recent published literature available during the first quarter of 2008. This documentary basis was collected by Inserm for the collective expert report procedure on Gambling (contexts and addictions). Seventy-two articles focusing on risk factors for pathological gambling were considered in this review. Only 47 of them were taken into account for analysis. The selection of these 47 publications was based on the guide on literature analysis established by the French National Agency for Accreditation and Assessment in Health (ANAES, 2000). Some publications from more recent literature have also been added, mostly about Internet gambling. We identify three major types of risk factors implicated in gambling problems: some of them are related to the subject (individual factors), others are related to the object of the addiction, here the gambling activity by itself (structural factors), and the last are related to environment (contextual or situational factors). Thus, the development and maintenance of pathological gambling seems to be

  11. Continuous equilibrium scores: factoring in the time before a fall. (United States)

    Wood, Scott J; Reschke, Millard F; Owen Black, F


    The equilibrium (EQ) score commonly used in computerized dynamic posturography is normalized between 0 and 100, with falls assigned a score of 0. The resulting mixed discrete-continuous distribution limits certain statistical analyses and treats all trials with falls equally. We propose a simple modification of the formula in which peak-to-peak sway data from trials with falls is scaled according the percent of the trial completed to derive a continuous equilibrium (cEQ) score. The cEQ scores for trials without falls remain unchanged from the original methodology. The cEQ factors in the time before a fall and results in a continuous variable retaining the central tendencies of the original EQ distribution. A random set of 5315 Sensory Organization Test trials were pooled that included 81 falls. A comparison of the original and cEQ distributions and their rank ordering demonstrated that trials with falls continue to constitute the lower range of scores with the cEQ methodology. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.997) demonstrates that the cEQ retained near-perfect discrimination between trials with and without falls. We conclude that the cEQ score provides the ability to discriminate between ballistic falls from falls that occur later in the trial. This approach of incorporating time and sway magnitude can be easily extended to enhance other balance tests that include fall data or incomplete trials. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. A Posterior Circulation Ischemia Risk Score System to Assist the Diagnosis of Dizziness. (United States)

    Chen, Ru; Su, Rui; Deng, Mingzhu; Liu, Jia; Hu, Qing; Song, Zhi


    We aimed to establish a risk score system without radio-image examination, which could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and posterior circulation ischemia (PCI) rapidly from the other dizzy patients. We analyzed 304 patients with vertigo (50% PCI). The attributes with more significant contributions were selected as the risk factors for the PCI risk score system, and every one of them was assigned a value according to their respective odds ratio values. We also compared the respective receiver operating characteristic curves of the 3 diagnostic methods (PCI score system, ABCD 2 , and Essen score systems) to evaluate their prediction effectiveness. Nine risk factors were ultimately selected for PCI score system, including high blood pressure (1'), diabetes mellitus (1'), ischemic stroke (1'), rotating and rocking (-1'), difficulty in speech (5'), tinnitus (-5'), limb and sensory deficit (5'), gait ataxia (1'), and limb ataxia (5'). According to their respective PCI risk scores, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups: low risk (≤0', risk 95.0%). When 0' was selected as a cutoff point for differentiating the patients with PCI from patients without PCI, the sensitivity was 94.1%, with a specificity of 41.4%. The areas under the receiver operator curve value of PCI score system was .82 (P = .000), much higher than the areas under the receiver operator curve value of ABCD 2 (.69, P = .000) and that of the Essen system (.67, P = .000) CONCLUSION: The PCI score system could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and PCI rapidly from the other dizzy patients. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang


    Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

  14. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goh LGH


    Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

  15. Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years. (United States)

    Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J


    Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (phistory of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

  16. Development of an interstitial cystitis risk score for bladder permeability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E Lamb

    Full Text Available Interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC is a multifactorial syndrome of severe pelvic and genitalia pain and compromised urinary function; a subset of IC patients present with Hunner's lesions or ulcers on their bladder walls (UIC. UIC is diagnosed by cystoscopy, which may be quite painful. The objective of this study was to determine if a calculated Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score (BP-RS based on non-invasive urinary cytokines could discriminate UIC patients from controls and IC patients without Hunner's ulcers.A national crowdsourcing effort targeted IC patients and age-matched controls to provide urine samples. Urinary cytokine levels for GRO, IL-6, and IL-8 were determined using a Luminex assay.We collected 448 urine samples from 46 states consisting of 153 IC patients (147 female, 6 male, of which 54 UIC patients (50 females, 4 male, 159 female controls, and 136 male controls. A defined BP-RS was calculated to classify UIC, or a bladder permeability defect etiology, with 89% validity.The BP-RS Score quantifies UIC risk, indicative of a bladder permeability defect etiology in a subset of IC patients. The Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score is the first validated urine biomarker assay for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome.

  17. Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women. (United States)

    Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng


    Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

  18. Assessment of Diabetes Risk in an Adult Population Using Indian Diabetes Risk Score in an Urban Resettlement Colony of Delhi. (United States)

    Acharya, Anita Shankar; Singh, Anshu; Dhiman, Balraj


    Diabetes mellitus is one of the non-communicable diseases which has become a major global health problem whose prevalence is increasing worldwide and is expected to reach 4.4% by 2030. The risk of diabetes escalates with increase in the number of risk factors and their duration as well. The Indian Diabetic Risk Score (IDRS) is a simple, low cost, feasible tool for mass screening programme at the community level. To assess the risk score of diabetes among the study subjects using IDRS. A cross sectional survey was conducted on adults >30 years (n=580) on both gender in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi during December 2013 to March 2015. A Semi-structured interview schedule consisting of Socio-demographic characteristics, risk factor profile and Indian Diabetes Risk Score was used. Data was entered and analyzed in SPSS. Out of 580 subjects, 31 (5.3%) study subjects were not at risk of having diabetes, rest 94.5% were at moderate or high risk of diabetes.A statistically significant association of diabetes risk with marital status(p=0.0001), education(0.005),body mass index(0.049) and systolic blood pressure was seen.(p=0.006). More than 90% of the study subjects were at risk of having diabetes, hence screening is of utmost importance so that interventions can be initiated at an early stage.

  19. Obstetric spinal hypotension: Preoperative risk factors and the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obstetric spinal hypotension: Preoperative risk factors and the development of a preliminary risk score – the PRAM score. ... We used empirical cut-point estimations in a logistic regression model to develop a scoring system for prediction of hypotension. Results. From 504 eligible patients, preoperative heart rate (odds ratio ...

  20. The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery. (United States)

    Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R


    Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W


    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.

Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  2. The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscila Costa


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

  3. Clinical audit in gynecological cancer surgery: development of a risk scoring system to predict adverse events. (United States)

    Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas; Bouman, Chantal; De Jong, Suzanne; Sanday, Karen; Nicklin, Jim; Land, Russell; Obermair, Andreas


    Advanced gynecological surgery undertaken in a specialized gynecologic oncology unit may be associated with significant perioperative morbidity. Validated risk prediction models are available for general surgical specialties but currently not for gynecological cancer surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for adverse events (AEs) of patients treated for suspected or proven gynecological cancer and to develop a clinical risk score (RS) to predict such AEs. AEs were prospectively recorded and matched with demographical, clinical and histopathological data on 369 patients who had an abdominal or laparoscopic procedure for proven or suspected gynecological cancer at a tertiary gynecological cancer center. Stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors of AEs. For the risk score (RS), the coefficients from the model were scaled using a factor of 2 and rounded to the nearest integer to derive the risk points. Sum of all the risk points form the RS. Ninety-five patients (25.8%) had at least one AE. Twenty-nine (7.9%) and 77 (20.9%) patients experienced intra- and postoperative AEs respectively with 11 patients (3.0%) experiencing both. The independent predictors for any AE were complexity of the surgical procedure, elevated SGOT (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, > or /=35 U/L), higher ASA scores and overweight. The risk score can vary from 0 to 14. The risk for developing any AE is described by the formula 100 / (1 + e((3.697 - (RS /2)))). RS allows for quantification of the risk for AEs. Risk factors are generally not modifiable with the possible exception of obesity.

  4. Dietary score and the risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in southeast China. (United States)

    Chen, Fa; Yan, Lingjun; Lin, Lisong; Liu, Fengqiong; Qiu, Yu; Wang, Jing; Wu, Junfeng; Liu, Fangping; Huang, Jiangfeng; Cai, Lin; He, Baochang


    This study aims to develop a simple dietary score to comprehensively evaluate the role of diet in the risk of oral cancer. A case-control study including 930 oral cancer cases and 2667 frequency-matched controls was performed in Fujian, China. Unconditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the effects of dietary factors on oral cancer. After adjustment for potential confounders, less intake of domestic meat (oral cancer. Then these variables were incorporated to establish dietary risk score. Assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve, the score showed a satisfactory discriminatory capacity, with an area under the curve of 0.682 (95% CI: 0.662-0.702). Moreover, the score was positively associated with the risk of oral cancer as quartiles, and the association was apparently stronger in tobacco smokers or alcohol drinkers. Additionally, there were significant multiplicative interactions between the score and tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking for oral cancer. In the present study, a convenient dietary score with satisfactory discriminatory capacity was developed to assess the collected effect of dietary factors on oral cancer, which could provide a new strategy for the prevention of oral cancer through changing in dietary habits.

  5. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B


    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  6. Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families


    Muranen, Taru A.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Khan, Sofia; Fagerholm, Rainer; Pelttari, Liisa; Lee, Andrew; Aittom?ki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli


    The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breas...

  7. Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair. (United States)

    Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott


    Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p variance in costs (p optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost variation for VHR. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Homocysteine is the confounding factor of metabolic syndrome-confirmed by siMS score. (United States)

    Srećković, Branko; Soldatovic, Ivan; Colak, Emina; Mrdovic, Igor; Sumarac-Dumanovic, Mirjana; Janeski, Hristina; Janeski, Nenad; Gacic, Jasna; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna


    Abdominal adiposity has a central role in developing insulin resistance (IR) by releasing pro-inflammatory cytokines. Patients with metabolic syndrome (MS) have higher values of homocysteine. Hyperhomocysteinemia correlates with IR, increasing the oxidative stress. Oxidative stress causes endothelial dysfunction, hypertension and atherosclerosis. The objective of the study was to examine the correlation of homocysteine with siMS score and siMS risk score and with other MS co-founding factors. The study included 69 obese individuals (age over 30, body mass index [BMI] >25 kg/m2), classified into two groups: I-with MS (33 patients); II-without MS (36 patients). Measurements included: anthropometric parameters, lipids, glucose regulation parameters and inflammation parameters. IR was determined by homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). ATP III classification was applied for diagnosing MS. SiMS score was used as continuous measure of metabolic syndrome. A significant difference between groups was found for C-reactive protein (CRP) (psiMS risk score showed a positive correlation with homocysteine (p=0.023), while siMS score correlated positively with fibrinogen (p=0.013), CRP and acidum uricum (p=0.000) and homocysteine (p=0.08). Homocysteine correlated positively with ApoB (p=0.036), HbA1c (p=0.047), HOMA-IR (p=0.008) and negatively with ApoE (p=0.042). Correlation of siMS score with homocysteine, fibrinogen, CRP and acidum uricum indicates that they are co-founding factors of MS. siMS risk score correlation with homocysteine indicates that hyperhomocysteinemia increases with age. Hyperhomocysteinemia is linked with genetic factors and family nutritional scheme, increasing the risk for atherosclerosis.

  9. Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery. (United States)

    Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S


    Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

  10. Risk factors for cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyman, G.H.


    It is no longer reasonable to divide cancers into those that are genetic in origin and those that are environmental in origin. With rare exception, carcinogenesis involves environmental factors that directly or indirectly exert a change in the cell's genome. Virtually all causes of cancer are multifactorial, sometimes involving an inherited predisposition to the carcinogenic effects of environmental factors, which include chemicals, ionizing radiation, and oncogenic virus. Carcinogenesis is a multistep process including induction, promotion, and progression. Initiation requires an irreversible change in the cellular genome, whereas promotion is commonly associated with prolonged and reversible exposure. Tumor progression results in genotypic and phenotypic changes associated with tumor growth, invasion, and metastasis. Most information on human cancer risk is based on epidemiologic studies involving both exposed and unexposed individuals. The quality of such studies depends on their ability to assess the strength of any association of exposure and disease and careful attention to any potential bias. Few cancers are inherited in a Mendelian fashion. Several preneoplastic conditions, however, are clearly inherited and several malignancies demonstrate weak familial patterns. Environmental factors may exert their effect on DNA in a random fashion, but certain consistent changes, including specific translocations of genetic information, are often found. Currently, there is great interest in the close proximity of certain oncogenes governing growth control to the consistent chromosomal changes observed. Such changes may represent a final common pathway of action for environmental carcinogens. Sufficient laboratory and epidemiologic evidence exists to establish a causal association of several chemical agents with cancer

  11. Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score. (United States)

    Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R


    To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

  12. [The scoring system for the risk-stratification in patients with the antiphospholipid syndrome]. (United States)

    Oku, Kenji


      Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterized by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of the pathogenic autoantibodies, the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Recurernt thrombosis is often observed in patients with APS which requires persistent prophylaxis. However, an uniform prophylactic treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in other various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positivity or high titre of aPL correlate to the thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of the thrombotic risks and to quantitatively analyze them, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-Phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined as the scoring-systems. Both of these scoring-systems were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) were put into scoring system. They have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT).

  13. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  14. The relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and knowledge ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele Burger

    CV risk profile of the group according to the risk score system developed by the ... an individual has about CVD, and the possible risk factors contributing to the .... levels in the lowest tertile of CVD knowledge versus the highest tertile of CVD ..... CV risk factors and health behavior counseling, much can be done to prevent ...

  15. Risk Factors in Pemphigus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülşen Tükenmez Demirc


    Full Text Available Background and Design: There have been reports suggesting the involvement of environmental factors in the disease process of pemphigus. In this study, we aimed to find out the risk factors which could play role in the etiopathogenesis in our pemphigus patients.Material and method: A total of 42 patients (15 male and 27 female who were diagnosed as pemphigus with histopathological and direct immunoflurosence examinations in our clinic between the years 1998-2004, were interviewed for assessment of regarding with the subjects of the demographic properties, occupational groups, educational level, the number of pregnancies, stressfull life events, diet habits, smoking and alcohol consumption before the onset of the disease and the results were compared to 42 age and gender-matched controls with similar socioeconomic circumstances. Results: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were found to be statistically significant in pemphigus patients than in controls. Conclusion: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were assumed to play role in the etiopathogenesis and course of pemphigus.

  16. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Maryam Rondina


    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  17. The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention. (United States)

    Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B


    This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Severe Spontaneous Echo Contrast/Auricolar Thrombosis in "Nonvalvular" AF: Value of Thromboembolic Risk Scores. (United States)

    Mascioli, Giosuè; Lucca, Elena; Michelotti, Federica; Alioto, Giusy; Santoro, Franco; Belli, Guido; Rota, Cristina; Ornago, Ombretta; Sirianni, Giovanni; Pulcini, Emanuela; Pennesi, Matteo; Savasta, Carlo; Russo, Rosario; Pitì, Antonino


    Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased thromboembolic risk that can be estimated with risk scores and sometimes require oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). Despite correct anticoagulation, some patients still develop left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) or thrombosis. The value of traditional risk scores (R 2 CHADS 2 , CHADS 2 , and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) in predicting such events remains controversial. The aim of our study was to explore variables linked to severe SEC or atrial thrombosis and evaluate the performance of traditional risk scores in identifying these patients. In order to do this, we retrospectively analyzed 568 patients with nonvalvular nonparoxysmal AF who underwent electrical cardioversion from January 2011 to December 2016 after OAT for a minimum of 4 weeks. A transesophageal echocardiogram was performed in 265 patients for various indications, and 24 exhibited left atrial SEC or thrombosis. Female gender, history of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction 1 mg/dL) of C-reactive protein (CRP) were independently associated with left atrial SEC/thrombosis. A score composed by these factors (denominated HIS [Heart Failure, Inflammation, and female Sex]) showed a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 60% (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.695, P = 0.002) in identifying patients with a positive transesophageal echo; traditional risk scores did not perform as well. In patients with persistent AF and suboptimal anticoagulation, a risk score composed by history of heart failure, high CRP, and female gender identifies patients at high risk of left atrial SEC/thrombosis when its value is >1. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Perinatal risk factors for strabismus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torp-Pedersen, Tobias; Boyd, Heather A; Poulsen, Gry


    Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype.......Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype....

  20. Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. (United States)

    Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y


    Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk factors in school shootings. (United States)

    Verlinden, S; Hersen, M; Thomas, J


    Nine incidents of multiple-victim homicide in American secondary schools are examined and common risk factors are identified. The literature dealing with individual, family, social, societal, and situational risk factors for youth violence and aggression is reviewed along with existing risk assessment methods. Checklists of risk factors for serious youth violence and school violence are used in reviewing each school shooting case. Commonalties among the cases and implications for psychologists practicing in clinical and school settings are discussed.

  2. Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation. (United States)

    Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary


    We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk


    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  4. Metabolic syndrome and Framingham risk score in obese young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix F. Widjaja


    Full Text Available Background: The increase number of the metabolic syndrome (MetS among young adults was mostly caused by obesity. MetS increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD which can be estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS. The study was aimed to know the prevalence of MetS and FRS in obese young adults and to associate them with the components of MetS. Methods: A total of 70 male and female students aged 18 to 25 years with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia were selected consecutively. The blood samples used to test fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride were examined in Department of Clinical Pathology, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital after fasting for 14 to 16 hours. International Diabetes Federation (IDF definition was used to diagnose MetS. Univariate and bivariate analysis were done. Results: The prevalence of MetS based on IDF definition was 18.6% among obese young adults. The most associated MetS components was hypertriglyceridemia (OR 12.13; 95% CI 2.92-50.46; p = 0.001, followed with high blood pressure (OR 9.33; 95% CI 2.26-38.56; p = 0.001, low-HDL (OR 8.33; 95% CI 2.17-32.05; p = 0.003, and impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.03. Four subjects had FRS ≥ 1% and 66 subjects had risk < 1%. Increased FRS was not associated with MetS (p = 0.154. There was no component of MetS associated with increased FRS. Conclusion: Prevalence of MetS in obese young adults was similar with obese children and adolescents. Although no association of MetS and FRS was found, they are significant predictors for CHD which should not be used separately. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:100-6Keywords: Abdominal obesity, Framingham risk score, metabolic syndrome, young adults

  5. Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms (United States)

    ... » [ pdf, 433 kb ] Order Materials » Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms Risk Factors for a Stroke Stroke prevention is still ... it. Treatment can delay complications that increase the risk of stroke. Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Seek help. ...

  6. The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation. (United States)

    Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael


    The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The Surgical Site Infection Risk Score (SSIRS: A Model to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl van Walraven

    Full Text Available Surgical site infections (SSI are an important cause of peri-surgical morbidity with risks that vary extensively between patients and surgeries. Quantifying SSI risk would help identify candidates most likely to benefit from interventions to decrease the risk of SSI.We randomly divided all surgeries recorded in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2010 into a derivation and validation population. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine the independent association of patient and surgical covariates with the risk of any SSI (including superficial, deep, and organ space SSI within 30 days of surgery. To capture factors particular to specific surgeries, we developed a surgical risk score specific to all surgeries having a common first 3 numbers of their CPT code.Derivation (n = 181 894 and validation (n = 181 146 patients were similar for all demographics, past medical history, and surgical factors. Overall SSI risk was 3.9%. The SSI Risk Score (SSIRS found that risk increased with patient factors (smoking, increased body mass index, certain comorbidities (peripheral vascular disease, metastatic cancer, chronic steroid use, recent sepsis, and operative characteristics (surgical urgency; increased ASA class; longer operation duration; infected wounds; general anaesthesia; performance of more than one procedure; and CPT score. In the validation population, the SSIRS had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.800, 95% CI 0.795-0.805 and calibration.SSIRS can be calculated using patient and surgery information to estimate individual risk of SSI for a broad range of surgery types.

  8. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Nagano


    Full Text Available Surgical site infection (SSI has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P=0.0002 and intraoperative blood loss (P=0.0005 was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials. The MOSI index (0–4 points score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points. The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI.

  9. Fall risk assessment: retrospective analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores in Portuguese hospitalized adult patients. (United States)

    Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Simões, Cláudia Sofia Oliveira; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Simões, João Filipe Fernandes Lindo; Melo, Elsa Maria de Oliveira Pinheiro de


    The Morse Fall Scale is used in several care settings for fall risk assessment and supports the implementation of preventive nursing interventions. Our work aims to analyze the Morse Fall Scale scores of Portuguese hospitalized adult patients in association with their characteristics, diagnoses and length of stay. Retrospective cohort analysis of Morse Fall Scale scores of 8356 patients hospitalized during 2012. Data were associated to age, gender, type of admission, specialty units, length of stay, patient discharge, and ICD-9 diagnosis. Elderly patients, female, with emergency service admission, at medical units and/or with longer length of stays were more frequently included in the risk group for falls. ICD-9 diagnosis may also be an important risk factor. More than a half of hospitalized patients had "medium" to "high" risk of falling during the length of stay, which determines the implementation and maintenance of protocoled preventive nursing interventions throughout hospitalization. There are several fall risk factors not assessed by Morse Fall Scale. There were no statistical differences in Morse Fall Scale score between the first and the last assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ngu, JH; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Chin, YK


    Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study.......Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study....

  11. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis. (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke


    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  12. Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura


    The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

  13. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W


    cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR......) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.......07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  14. Risk score prediction model for dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes. (United States)

    Li, Chia-Ing; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Liao, Li-Na; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Chih-Hsueh; Yang, Sing-Yu; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Lin, Cheng-Chieh


    No study established a prediction dementia model in the Asian populations. This study aims to develop a prediction model for dementia in Chinese type 2 diabetes patients. This retrospective cohort study included 27,540 Chinese type 2 diabetes patients (aged 50-94 years) enrolled in Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program. Participants were randomly allocated into derivation and validation sets at 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors for dementia in the derivation set. Steps proposed by Framingham Heart Study were used to establish a prediction model with a scoring system. The average follow-up was 8.09 years, with a total of 853 incident dementia cases in derivation set. Dementia risk score summed up the individual scores (from 0 to 20). The areas under curve of 3-, 5-, and 10-year dementia risks were 0.82, 0.79, and 0.76 in derivation set and 0.84, 0.80, and 0.75 in validation set, respectively. The proposed score system is the first dementia risk prediction model for Chinese type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan


    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  16. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Corcoran


    Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom, in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  17. Risk Factors of Endocarditis in Patients with Enterococcus faecalis Bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Anders; Lauridsen, Trine K; Arpi, Magnus


    BACKGROUND:  The NOVA score is a recently developed diagnostic tool to identify patients with increased risk of infective endocarditis (IE) among patients with Enterococcus faecalis (EF) bacteremia. We aim to validate an adapted version of the NOVA score and to identify risk factors for IE...

  18. Risk factors for stress fractures. (United States)

    Bennell, K; Matheson, G; Meeuwisse, W; Brukner, P


    Preventing stress fractures requires knowledge of the risk factors that predispose to this injury. The aetiology of stress fractures is multifactorial, but methodological limitations and expediency often lead to research study designs that evaluate individual risk factors. Intrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as bone density, skeletal alignment and body size and composition, physiological factors such as bone turnover rate, flexibility, and muscular strength and endurance, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors. Extrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as surface, footwear and external loading as well as physical training parameters. Psychological traits may also play a role in increasing stress fracture risk. Equally important to these types of analyses of individual risk factors is the integration of information to produce a composite picture of risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically appraise the existing literature by evaluating study design and quality, in order to provide a current synopsis of the known scientific information related to stress fracture risk factors. The literature is not fully complete with well conducted studies on this topic, but a great deal of information has accumulated over the past 20 years. Although stress fractures result from repeated loading, the exact contribution of training factors (volume, intensity, surface) has not been clearly established. From what we do know, menstrual disturbances, caloric restriction, lower bone density, muscle weakness and leg length differences are risk factors for stress fracture. Other time-honoured risk factors such as lower extremity alignment have not been shown to be causative even though anecdotal evidence indicates they are likely to play an important role in stress fracture pathogenesis.

  19. The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool (United States)

    Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza


    AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

  20. A simple score for estimating the long-term risk of fracture in patients with multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bazelier, M. T.; van Staa, T. P.; Uitdehaag, B. M. J.


    was converted into integer risk scores. Results: In comparison with the FRAX calculator, our risk score contains several new risk factors that have been linked with fracture, which include MS, use of antidepressants, use of anticonvulsants, history of falling, and history of fatigue. We estimated the 5- and 10......Objective: To derive a simple score for estimating the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in individual patients with MS. Methods: Using the UK General Practice Research Database linked to the National Hospital Registry (1997-2008), we identified patients with incident MS (n = 5......,494). They were matched 1:6 by year of birth, sex, and practice with patients without MS (control subjects). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture. We fitted the regression model with general and specific risk factors, and the final Cox model...

  1. Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts. (United States)

    Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume


    To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie


    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  3. A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease. (United States)

    Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S


    It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

  4. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)


    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  5. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo


    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

  6. Development and validation of a postpartum depression risk score in delivered women, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad R Maracy


    Full Text Available Background: Investigators describe a dramatic increase in the incidence of mood disorder after childbirth, with the largest risk in the 90 days after delivery. This study is designed to develop a relatively simple screening tool and validate it from the significant variables associated with postpartum depression (PPD to detect delivered women at high risk of having PPD. Materials and Methods: In the cross-sectional study, 6,627 from a total of 7,300 delivered women, 2-12 months after delivery were recruited and screened for PPD. Split-half validation was used to develop the risk score. The training data set was used to develop the model, and the validation data set was used to validate the developed the risk factors of postpartum depression risk score using multiple logistic regression analysis to compute the β coefficients and odds ratio (OR for the dependent variables associated with possible PPD in this study. Calibration was checked using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. A score for independent variables contributing to PPD was calculated. Cutoff points using a trade-off between the sensitivity and specificity of risk scores derived from PPD model using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. Results: The predicted and observed PPD were not different (P value = 0.885. The aROC with area under the curve (S.E. of 0.611 (0.008 for predicting PPD using the suggested cut-off point of -0.702, the proportion of participants screening positive for PPD was 70.9% (sensitivity (CI 95%; 69.5, 72.3 while the proportion screening negative was 60.1% (specificity (CI 95%; 58.2, 62.1. Conclusion: Despite of the relatively low sensitivity and specificity in this study, it could be a simple, practical and useful screening tool to identify individual at high risk for PPD in the target population.

  7. How to Identify High-Risk APS Patients: Clinical Utility and Predictive Values of Validated Scores. (United States)

    Oku, Kenji; Amengual, Olga; Yasuda, Shinsuke; Atsumi, Tatsuya


    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterised by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies that are pathogenic and have pro-coagulant activities. Thrombosis in APS tends to recur and require prophylaxis; however, the stereotypical treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positive aPL or high titre aPL correlate to thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of thrombotic risks in APS patients and to quantitatively analyse those risks, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined. These scores were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) was put into a scoring system. Both the aPL-S and GAPSS have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine-dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT). Additionally, clinicians may need to be aware of the patient's medical history, particularly with respect to the incidence of SLE, which influences the cutoff value for identifying high-risk patients.

  8. A Danish diabetes risk score for targeted screening: the Inter99 study. (United States)

    Glümer, Charlotte; Carstensen, Bendix; Sandbaek, Annelli; Lauritzen, Torsten; Jørgensen, Torben; Borch-Johnsen, Knut


    To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing. A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression. The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (Pscreening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.

  9. Hidden Risk Factors for Women (United States)

    ... A.S.T. Quiz Hidden Stroke Risk Factors for Women Updated:Nov 22,2016 Excerpted from "What Women Need To Know About The Hidden Risk Factors ... 2012) This year, more than 100,000 U.S. women under 65 will have a stroke. Stroke is ...

  10. Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bates Tom


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

  11. Environmental risk factors and pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinda, J.; Lieskovska, Z.


    In this chapter the physical risk factors (as radiation [air contamination, contamination of the environment components and food contamination], radon and its radioactive decay products, radioactive wastes, noise), chemical risk factors [chemical substances, xenobiotics in the food chain the ozone depletion], wastes (waste generation, waste management, municipal waste management, import, export and transit of waste) and natural an technological hazards (water quality deterioration as a result of various accidents and fire risk) in the Slovak Republic in 1997 are reviewed

  12. The association of reproductive and lifestyle factors with a score of multiple endogenous hormones. (United States)

    Shafrir, Amy L; Zhang, Xuehong; Poole, Elizabeth M; Hankinson, Susan E; Tworoger, Shelley S


    We recently reported that high levels of multiple sex and growth hormones were associated with increased postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Limited research has explored the relationship between reproductive, anthropometric, and lifestyle factors and levels of multiple hormones simultaneously. This cross-sectional analysis included 738 postmenopausal Nurses' Health Study participants who were controls in a breast cancer nested case-control study and had measured levels of estrone, estradiol, estrone sulfate, testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, prolactin, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). A score was created by summing the number of hormones a woman had above (below for SHBG) each hormone's age-adjusted geometric mean. The association between lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive exposures and the score was assessed using generalized linear models. The hormone score ranged from 0 to 8 with a mean of 4.0 (standard deviation = 2.2). Body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption at blood draw were positively associated with the hormone score: a 5 unit increase in BMI was associated with a 0.79 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.95) unit increase in the score (p hormones, whereas anthropometric and lifestyle factors, particularly BMI and alcohol consumption, tended to be associated with higher levels of multiple hormones.

  13. A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patumanond J


    Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

  14. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population. (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul


    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  15. Factor Structure of Child Behavior Scale Scores in Peruvian Preschoolers (United States)

    Meyer, Erin L.; Schaefer, Barbara A.; Soto, Cesar Merino; Simmons, Crystal S.; Anguiano, Rebecca; Brett, Jeremy; Holman, Alea; Martin, Justin F.; Hata, Heidi K.; Roberts, Kimberly J.; Mello, Zena R.; Worrell, Frank C.


    Behavior rating scales aid in the identification of problem behaviors, as well as the development of interventions to reduce such behavior. Although scores on many behavior rating scales have been validated in the United States, there have been few such studies in other cultural contexts. In this study, the structural validity of scores on a…

  16. Cardiovascular risk factors and dementia. (United States)

    Fillit, Howard; Nash, David T; Rundek, Tatjana; Zuckerman, Andrea


    Dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia, are disorders of aging populations and represent a significant economic burden. Evidence is accumulating to suggest that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be instrumental in the development of dementia. The goal of this review was to discuss the relationship between specific CVD risk factors and dementia and how current treatment strategies for dementia should focus on reducing CVD risks. We conducted a review of the literature for the simultaneous presence of 2 major topics, cardiovascular risk factors and dementia (eg, AD). Special emphasis was placed on clinical outcome studies examining the effects of treatments of pharmacologically modifiable CVD risk factors on dementia and cognitive impairment. Lifestyle risk factors for CVD, such as obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, and certain psychosocial factors, have been associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Some evidence suggests that effectively managing these factors may prevent cognitive decline/dementia. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials of antihypertensive medications have found that such therapy may reduce the risk of cognitive decline, and limited data suggest a benefit for patients with AD. Some small open-label and randomized clinical trials of statins have observed positive effects on cognitive function; larger studies of statins in patients with AD are ongoing. Although more research is needed, current evidence indicates an association between CVD risk factors--such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus--and cognitive decline/dementia. From a clinical perspective, these data further support the rationale for physicians to provide effective management of CVD risk factors and for patients to be compliant with such recommendations to possibly prevent cognitive decline/dementia.

  17. Psychosocial risk factors and heart failure hospitalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Andersen, Ingelise; Prescott, Eva


    Prospective studies on the role of psychosocial factors in heart failure development are virtually nonexistent. The authors aimed to address the effect of psychosocial factors on the risk of heart failure hospitalization in men and women free of cardiovascular disease. In 1991-1993, the 8......-fourth of the population reported some degree of vital exhaustion. The vital exhaustion score was associated with a higher risk of heart failure in a dose-response manner (P risk of heart failure in both men (hazard ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence...... in the population, even a modestly higher risk of heart failure associated with vital exhaustion may be of importance in the planning of future preventive strategies for heart failure....

  18. Cardiovascular risk factors in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyllenborg, J; Rasmussen, S L; Borch-Johnsen, Knut


    Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross-sectional de......Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross...

  19. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H


    Background—There are several well-established lifestyle factors influencing dyslipidemia and currently; 157 genetic susceptibility loci have been reported to be associated with serum lipid levels at genome-wide statistical significance. However, the interplay between lifestyle risk factors...... and these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested whether genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with fasting serum lipid traits and whether the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. Methods and Results—The single......-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, or triglyceride, 4 weighted GRS were constructed. In a cross-sectional design, we investigated whether the effect of these weighted GRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and smoking or the individual metabolic health...

  20. Does simplicity compromise accuracy in ACS risk prediction? A retrospective analysis of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna G Aragam

    studies with moderate sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The GRACE scores provided superior discrimination as compared with the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score in predicting in-hospital and 6-month mortality in UA/NSTEMI patients, although the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores performed equally well in STEMI patients. The observed discriminative deficit of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score likely results from the omission of key risk factors rather than from the relative simplicity of the scoring system.

  1. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer. (United States)

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K


    Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

  2. Pneumonia Risk Stratification Scores for Children in Low-Resource Settings: A Systematic Literature Review. (United States)

    Deardorff, Katrina V; McCollum, Eric D; Ginsburg, Amy Sarah


    Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of death among children less than five years of age. Predictive tools, commonly referred to as risk scores, can be employed to identify high-risk children early for targeted management to prevent adverse outcomes. This systematic review was conducted to identify pediatric pneumonia risk scores developed, validated, and implemented in low-resource settings. We searched CAB Direct, Cochrane Reviews, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies that developed formal risk scores to predict treatment failure or mortality among children less than five years of age diagnosed with a respiratory infection or pneumonia in low-resource settings. Data abstracted from articles included location and study design, sample size, age, diagnosis, score features and model discrimination. Three pediatric pneumonia risk scores predicted mortality specifically, and two treatment failure. Scores developed using World Health Organization recommended variables for pneumonia assessment demonstrated better predictive fit than scores developed using alternative features. Scores developed using routinely collected healthcare data performed similarly well as those developed using clinical trial data. No score has been implemented in low-resource settings. While pediatric pneumonia-specific risk scores have been developed and validated, it is yet unclear if implementation is feasible, what impact, if any, implemented scores may have on child outcomes, or how broadly scores may be generalized. To increase the feasibility of implementation, future research should focus on developing scores based on routinely collected data.

  3. B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention. (United States)

    Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja


    RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

  4. Risk behavior score: a practical approach for assessing risk among men who have sex with men in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Machado Rocha


    Full Text Available HIV/AIDS epidemic is not well controlled, and multiple sexual behavior factors help explain high rates of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM. This article proposes to exam the use of a potential risk behavior score for HIV infection, based on the type and number of sexual partners, and condom use, and their associated factors in a sample of MSM in Brazil. A cross sectional RDS (Respondent Driven Sampling study was performed among 3738 MSM aged 18+ years old from ten Brazilian cities. The risk behavior score was composed by the number of male partners and anal condom use in the last year with steady, casual, and commercial partners. Most participants were 25+ years old (58.1%, non-white (83.1%, and single (84.9%. Final weighted ordinal logistic model showed that age ≤ 25 years old (p = 0.037, homosexual or bisexual identity (p < 0.001, sexual initiation before 15-year-old (p < 0.001, having sex with men only in the last 12 months (p < 0.001, frequent alcohol and illicit drug use (p < 0.001, and use of local sites to meet sexual partners in the last month were independently associated with higher scores of risky behavior. Specific strategies should be developed aimed at the MSM population. Additionally, pre-exposed prophylaxis (Prep should be considered for those at higher score as a strategy for reducing risk for HIV infection in this population. Keywords: Homosexuals, High-risk sex, Unsafe sex, HIV, AIDS

  5. Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) (United States)

    Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.


    The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

  6. Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts. (United States)

    de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang


    The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

  7. Factors associated with IQ scores in long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, L.L.; Nesbit, M.E. Jr.; Sather, H.N.; Meadows, A.T.; Ortega, J.A.; Hammond, G.D.


    To identify factors which might be associated with intellectual function following treatment for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 50 long-term survivors were studied using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised. All patients were diagnosed between 1972 and 1974 and were treated on a single clinical trial protocol with identical induction and maintenance chemotherapy plus central nervous system prophylaxis that included cranial radiation. The mean full scale IQ score for the group was 95 (SEM 2.0), with mean verbal IQ of 94.4 and mean performance IQ of 96.9. Factors which were found to be closely associated with a lower IQ score included female sex (in both verbal IQ and full-scale IQ), longer duration of chemotherapy (in performance IQ), and younger age at the time of radiation (in both verbal IQ and full-scale IQ). The age at the time of radiation was found to be significantly correlated with discrepancy between verbal and performance IQ, with younger age being associated with verbal IQ scores higher than performance IQ scores. When analyses were performed within specific subgroups of patients defined by sex and age at the time of radiation, dose of cranial radiation, concomitant intrathecal methotrexate therapy, and duration of therapy were all found to be correlated with a lower level of intellectual function. These preliminary findings provide direction for future studies to help identify high-risk patients

  8. A Score for Risk of Thrombolysis-Associated Hemorrhage Including Pretreatment with Statins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hebun Erdur


    Full Text Available BackgroundSymptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH after intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-plasminogen activator (rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke is associated with a poor functional outcome. We aimed to develop a score assessing risk of sICH including novel putative predictors—namely, pretreatment with statins and severe renal impairment.MethodsWe analyzed our local cohort (Berlin of patients receiving rt-PA for acute ischemic stroke between 2006 and 2016. Outcome was sICH according to ECASS-III criteria. A multiple regression model identified variables associated with sICH and receiver operating characteristics were calculated for the best discriminatory model for sICH. The model was validated in an independent thrombolysis cohort (Basel.ResultssICH occurred in 53 (4.0% of 1,336 patients in the derivation cohort. Age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, systolic blood pressure on admission, blood glucose on admission, and prior medication with medium- or high-dose statins were associated with sICH and included into the risk of intracranial hemorrhage score. The validation cohort included 983 patients of whom 33 (3.4% had a sICH. c-Statistics for sICH was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.79 in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI 0.60–0.77 in the independent validation cohort. Inclusion of severe renal impairment did not improve the score.ConclusionWe developed a simple score with fair discriminating capability to predict rt-PA-related sICH by adding prior statin use to known prognostic factors of sICH. This score may help clinicians to identify patients with higher risk of sICH requiring intensive monitoring.

  9. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter


    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

  10. The emerging molecular architecture of schizophrenia, polygenic risk scores and the clinical implications for GxE research. (United States)

    Iyegbe, Conrad; Campbell, Desmond; Butler, Amy; Ajnakina, Olesya; Sham, Pak


    Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disorder. The level of risk in the general population is sustained by the persistence of social, environmental and biological factors, as well as their interactions. Socio-environmental risk factors for schizophrenia are well established and robust. The same can belatedly be said of genetic risk factors for the disorder. Recent progress in schizophrenia genetics is primarily fuelled by genome-wide association, which is able to leverage substantial proportions of additional explained variance previously classified as 'missing'. Here, we provide an outline of the emerging genetic landscape of schizophrenia and demonstrate how this knowledge can be turned into a simple empirical measure of genetic risk, known as a polygenic risk score. We highlight the statistical framework used to assess the clinical potential of the new score and finally, draw relevance to and discuss the clinical implications for the study of gene-environment interaction.

  11. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L


    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  12. Population-based metabolic syndrome risk score and its determinants: The Isfahan Healthy Heart Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Hosseini


    Full Text Available Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetSy, an important predisposing factor for the most of noncommunicable diseases, has become a global pandemic. Given different definitions used for the MetSy, recently using a score termed "continuous MetSy risk score (CMetSyS" is recommended. The aim of this study was to provide a CMetSyS in a population-based sample of Iranian adults and to assess its determinants. Materials and Methods: We used the data of the baseline survey of a community trial entitled "the Isfahan health heart program." The MetSy was defined according to the Revised National Cholesterol Education Program Third Adult Treatment Panel. All probable predictive models and their predictive performance were provided using leave-one-out cross-validated logistic regression and the receiver operation characteristic curve methods. Multiple linear regression was performed to assess factors associated with the CMetSyS. Results: The study population consisted of 8313 persons (49.9% male, mean age 38.54 ± 15.86 years. The MetSy was documented in 1539 persons (21.86%. Triglycerides and waist circumference were the best predictive components, and fasting plasma glucose had the lowest area under curve (AUC. The AUC for our best model was 95.36 (94.83-95.83%. The best predictive cutoff for this risk score was −1.151 with 89% sensitivity and 87.93% specificity. Conclusion: We provided four population-based leave-one-out cross-validated risk score models, with moderate to perfect predictive performance to identify the MetSy in Iranian adults. The CMetSyS had significant associations with high sensitive C-reactive protein, body mass index, leisure time, and workplace physical activity as well as age and gender.

  13. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Zannad, Faiez


    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  14. Predicting PTSD using the New York Risk Score with genotype data: potential clinical and research opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boscarino JA


    Full Text Available Joseph A Boscarino,1,2 H Lester Kirchner,3,4 Stuart N Hoffman,5 Porat M Erlich1,4 1Center for Health Research, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 2Department of Psychiatry, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 3Division of Medicine, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 4Department of Medicine, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 5Department of Neurology, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, PA, USA Background: We previously developed a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD screening instrument, ie, the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS, that was effective in predicting PTSD. In the present study, we assessed a version of this risk score that also included genetic information. Methods: Utilizing diagnostic testing methods, we hierarchically examined different prediction variables identified in previous NYPRS research, including genetic risk-allele information, to assess lifetime and current PTSD status among a population of trauma-exposed adults. Results: We found that, in predicting lifetime PTSD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone was 0.865. When we added psychosocial predictors from the original NYPRS to the model, including depression, sleep disturbance, and a measure of health care access, the AUC increased to 0.902, which was a significant improvement (P = 0.0021. When genetic information was added in the form of a count of PTSD risk alleles located within FKBP, COMT, CHRNA5, and CRHR1 genetic loci (coded 0–6, the AUC increased to 0.920, which was also a significant improvement (P = 0.0178. The results for current PTSD were similar. In the final model for current PTSD with the psychosocial risk factors included, genotype resulted in a prediction weight of 17 for each risk allele present, indicating that a person with six risk alleles or more would receive a PTSD risk score of 17 × 6 = 102, the highest risk score for any of the predictors studied. Conclusion: Genetic

  15. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert


    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D’Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  16. Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koontz, Bridget F., E-mail: [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Tsivian, Matvey [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Mouraviev, Vladimir [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Sun, Leon [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Vujaskovic, Zeljko [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Moul, Judd [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Lee, W. Robert [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)


    Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

  17. Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W


    to higher-risk categories than SCORE (P smokers. However, ESH risk chart agreed with ESC guidelines for antihypertensive treatment using SCORE in 89% (634/713) of the patients recommended treatment and produced...... similar sensitivities (79 vs. 79%), specificities (46 vs. 50%), positive (14 vs. 15%) and negative (95 vs. 96%) predictive values for CEP. CONCLUSION: Although SCORE did not use subclinical organ damage, the guidelines by ESH and ESC using SCORE recommended antihypertensive treatment in almost the same...

  18. Risk factors for fatigue among airline pilots. (United States)

    van Drongelen, Alwin; Boot, Cécile R L; Hlobil, Hynek; Smid, Tjabe; van der Beek, Allard J


    The objective of this study is to determine risk factors for fatigue among airline pilots, taking into account person-, work-, health-, sleep-, and lifestyle-related characteristics. The study population consisted of 502 pilots who participated in the MORE Energy study. Included risk factors were either measured through an online questionnaire or provided by the company. The outcome of this study, fatigue, was assessed using the Checklist Individual Strength (CIS), and was defined as scoring more than 76 points on this questionnaire. The association of the risk factors with fatigue was determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of the participating pilots, 29.5 % scored more than 76 points on the CIS and were classified as being fatigued. The fully adjusted regression model showed that person-, work-, health-, and lifestyle-related characteristics were associated with fatigue. Pilots who were aged 31 to 40 (OR 3.36, 95 % CI 1.32-8.53) or 41 to 50 (OR 4.19, 95 % CI 1.40-12.47), an evening type (OR 2.40, 95 % CI 1.38-4.16), scored higher on work-life balance disturbance (OR 1.22, 95 % CI 1.10-1.36), scored higher on need for recovery (OR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.01-1.04), scored lower on general health perception (OR 0.31, 95 % CI 0.20-0.47), were less physically active (OR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.66-0.89), and had a moderate alcohol consumption (OR 3.88, 95 % CI 1.21-12.43), were at higher risk for fatigue. Higher age, being an evening type, disturbance of the work-life balance, more need for recovery, a lower perceived health, less physical activity, and moderate alcohol consumption were shown to be risk factors for fatigue. Further longitudinal research is needed to elucidate the direction of the associations found and to evaluate the effects of possible countermeasures in airline pilots.

  19. EAMJ Risk Factors 10.indd

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Feb 2, 2010 ... Several factors have been suggested as independent risk factors for their development. Identification of these ... with age, gender or haematological test. ... A meta-analysis of prospective studies on ..... The marked difference may be because monthly .... and dyslipidemia among patients taking first-line,.

  20. Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador. (United States)

    Sisa, Ivan


    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. [Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis]. (United States)

    Tapia-Rombo, C A; Velasco-Lavín, M R; Nieto-Caldelas, A


    The purpose of the present study is to compare risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) between two group: group A, newborns with the disease and group B, newborns with other diseases different from NEC, in order to know if these risk factors are more frequent or not in the first group. We assessed the clinical records of all the patients hospitalized in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Neonatology Service of the La Raza General Hospital between 1987 and 1991 with the diagnosis of NEC. They were compared with 65 clinical records chosen at random of patients hospitalized in the same Unit with other diagnosis at the same time, and who were discharged by improvement or deceased. In all of them were look for known risk factors for NEC generally accepted such as: prematurity, neonatal asphyxia, poliglobulia, cyanotic congenital heart disease, patent ductus arteriosus, respiratory distress syndrome, catheterization of umbilical vessels, early feeding of elevated formula increases, exchange exchange transfusion, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, infection, etc. Just 25 records of the possible 50 with the diagnosis of NEC full filled inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant difference in weight, sex, mortality and known risk factors of NEC between both groups. Were concluded that NEC is a disease of unknown etiology that should be studied more thoroughly. The known risk factors must be avoided because the patient susceptibility probably play an important role.

  2. Risk factor for febrile seizures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odalović Dragica


    Full Text Available Febrile seizures are the most frequent neurological disorder in the childhood. According to American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP, they have been defined as seizures provoked by high temperature in children aged between 6 months and 5 years, without previous history of afebrile seizures, intracranial infections and other possible causes of seizures. Seizures can be typical and atypical, according to the characteristics. Pathogenesis of this disorder has not been clarified yet, and it is believed to be a combination of genetic factors, high body temperature and brain maturation. The risk factors for recurrence of febrile seizures are: age in which seizures appeared for the first time, epilepsy in the first degree relative, febrile seizures in the first degree relative, frequent diseases with fever and low body temperature on the beginning of seizures. The frequency of recurrent seizures The risk for occurrence of epilepsy in children with simple seizures is about 1-1.5%, which is slightly higher compared to general population, while it increases to 4-15% in patients with complex seizures. However, there is no evidence that therapy prevents occurrence of epilepsy. When the prevention of recurrent seizures is considered, it is necessary to separate simple from complex seizures. The aim of this paper was to analyze the most important risk factors for febrile seizures, and to evaluate their impact on occurrence of recurrent seizures. Our study included 125 children with febrile seizures, aged from 6 months to 5 years. The presence of febrile seizures and epilepsy in the first degree relative has been noted in 22% of children. Typical febrile seizures were observed in 76% of cases, and atypical in 24%. Most patients had only one seizure (73.6%. Children, who had seizure earlier in life, had more frequent recurrences. Both risk factors were present in 25% of patients, while 68% of patients had only one risk factor. For the children with febrile disease

  3. A model including sarcopenia surpasses the MELD score in predicting waiting list mortality in cirrhotic liver transplant candidates : A competing risk analysis in a national cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vugt, Jeroen Laurens Ad; Alferink, Louise Johanna Maria; Buettner, Stefan; Gaspersz, Marcia Patricia; Bot, Daphne; Murad, Sarwa Darwish; Feshtali, Shirin; van Ooijen, Peter Martinus Adranius; Polak, Wojciech Grzegorz; Porte, Robert Jan; van Hoek, Bart; van den Berg, Aad Pieter; Metselaar, Herold Johnny; IJzermans, Jan Nicolaas Maria

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Frail patients with low MELD scores may be underprioritised. Low skeletal muscle mass (i.e. sarcopenia) has been identified as risk factor for waiting list mortality and a recent study proposed to incorporate sarcopenia in the MELD score (i.e. MELD-Sarcopenia score). We aimed to

  4. The risk factor of thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko


    For the purposes of radiation protection, the noteworthy risk of thyroid is carcinogenesis. The risk factor which ICRP presented in the publication-26 is 5 x 10 - 6 rem - 1 . This numerical value is based upon the estimated likelihood of inducing fatal thyroid cancer. On the other hand, the risk factor presented by the BEIR report is 4 x 10 - 6 yr - 1 . This value was decided after consideration of the risks of both fatal and non-fatal cancer of thyroid. The following features distinguished thyroid cancer from malignancy of other tissue from medical point of view. 1) A large difference between incidence and mortality in case of thyroid cancer is recognized, because the thyroid cancer could be successfully treated by surgical or radiological treatment. 2) The high prevalence of clinically silent tumor in thyroid gland has been reported. The incidence of thyroid cancer, therefore, is very dependent on methods of medical inspection. The prevalence of radiation induced thyroid cancer is modified by various factors such as age, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is very important factors such as ave, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is a very important factor in the estimation of accumulated total risk of thyroid malignancy. What is included in the risk caused by thyroid irradiation must be investigated. The risk of non-fatal cancer should be considered in the same way as that of fatal cancer. The dose-equivalent limit of thyroid in non-uniform irradiation caused by radioactive iodine is decided by the limit for non-stochastic effects. Therefore the further consideration of non-stochastic effects of thyroid is necessary. (author)

  5. Influence of bone mineral density measurement on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in postmenopausal Indian women. (United States)

    Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram


    Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score': testing the clinical validity of a new risk assessment instrument. (United States)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise; Alkier Gildberg, Frederik


    Unstructured risk assessment, as well as confounders (underlying reasons for the patient's risk behaviour and alliance), risk behaviour, and parameters of alliance, have been identified as factors that prolong the duration of mechanical restraint among forensic mental health inpatients. To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical restraint. The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. The three sub-scales (Confounders, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items, and the instrument can be used to support the clinical decision-making regarding the possibility of releasing the patient from mechanical restraint. The present three studies have clinically validated a short MR-CRAS scale that is currently being psychometrically tested in a larger study.

  7. Human Leptospirosis and risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanelis Emilia Tabío Henry


    Full Text Available The human leptospirosis is a zoonosis of world distribution, were risk factors exist that have favored the wild and domestic animal propagation and so man. A descpitive investigation was made with the objective of determining the behavior of risk factors in outpatients by human leptospirosis in “Camilo Cienfuegos“ University General Hospital from Sncti Spíritus In the comprised time period betwen december 1 st and 3 st , 2008.The sample of this study was conformed by 54 risk persons that keep inclusion criteria. Some variables were used:age, sex, risk factors and number of ill persons, according to the month. Some patients of masculine sex prevailed (61,9%, group of ages between 15-29 and 45-59 years (27,7%, patients treated since october to december (53,7%, the direct and indirect contact with animals (46,2 %. The risk factors cassually associated to human leptospirosis turned to be: the masculine sex, the contac with animals, the occupational exposition and the inmersion on sources of sweet water.

  8. Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Birnie; E.A.P. Steegers; Drs. H.W. Torij; M.J. Veen; J. Poeran; G.J. Bonsel


    A population-based cross-sectional study (feasibility) and a cohort study (inter-rater reliability) to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal

  9. [Risk scores for community acquired pneumonia in elderly and geriatric patients]. (United States)

    Pflug, M A; Wesemann, T; Heppner, H J; Thiem, U


    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is still an important and serious disease for elderly and geriatric patients. For epidemiological and clinical reasons it is important to collate the frequencies of the various degrees of severity of CAP and to obtain information on the spread and degree of the threat to the various risk groups by CAP. In outpatient treatment a simple to execute prognosis score can be used to objectify the assessment of the clinical status of a patient and to support therapeutic decision-making. For this purpose knowledge of the appropriate instruments should be available to potential users. Since the 1990s a variety of risk scores for stratification of CAP have been developed and evaluated. This article presents the content and value of the available risk scores whereby the advantages and disadvantages of the individual scores are critically compared. Special emphasis is placed on the importance of the risk scores for geriatric patients. At present the decision about outpatient or inpatient treatment is primarily based on the risk score CRB-65. Criteria for intensive care unit admissions are provided by the modified American Thoracic Society (ATS) set of criteria. Overall, risk scores are less reliable for elderly patients than for younger adults. For treatment decisions for the elderly, functional aspects should also be considered in addition to the aspects of risk scores discussed here. In particular, the decision about inpatient admission for elderly, geriatric CAP patients should be made on an individual basis taking the benefit-risk relationship into consideration.

  10. Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.


    To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

  11. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt


    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...

  12. Validation of the Rockall risk scoring system in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeburg, E. M.; Terwee, C. B.; Snel, P.; Rauws, E. A.; Bartelsman, J. F.; Meulen, J. H.; Tytgat, G. N.


    Several scoring systems have been developed to predict the risk of rebleeding or death in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). These risk scoring systems have not been validated in a new patient population outside the clinical context of the original study. To assess internal and

  13. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A


    BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P heart failure, this simple...

  14. Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors. (United States)

    O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W


    A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

  15. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke


    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty-seven patients with clinically....../87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction...... technique for preoperative prostate cancer staging • ECE risk scoring predicts extracapsular tumour extension at final pathology • ECE risk scoring shows an AUC of 0.86 on the ROC-curve • ECE risk scoring shows a moderate inter-reader agreement (K = 0.45) • Multiparametric MRI provides essential knowledge...

  16. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyan Chen


    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  17. Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk


    Jacobson, Tor; Roszbach, Kasper


    In this paper we apply a bivariate probit model to investigate the implications of bank lending policy. In the first equation we model the bank´s decision to grant a loan, in the second the probability of default. We confirm that banks provide loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization. The lending policy must thus either be inefficient or be the result of some other type of optimizing behavior than expected profit maximization. Value at Risk, being a value weighted ...

  18. Antithrombotic drugs and non-variceal bleeding outcomes and risk scoring systems: comparison of Glasgow Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores (United States)

    Taha, Ali S; McCloskey, Caroline; Craigen, Theresa; Angerson, Wilson J


    Objectives Antithrombotic drugs (ATDs) cause non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). Risk scoring systems have not been validated in ATD users. We compared Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores in predicting outcomes of NVUGIB in ATD users and controls. Methods A total of 2071 patients with NVUGIB were grouped into ATD users (n=851) and controls (n=1220) in a single-centre retrospective analysis. Outcomes included duration of hospital admission, the need for blood transfusion, rebleeding requiring surgery and 30-day mortality. Results Duration of admission correlated with all scores in controls, but correlations were significantly weaker in ATD users. Rank correlation coefficients in control versus ATD: 0.45 vs 0.20 for Blatchford; 0.48 vs 0.32 for Rockall and 0.42 vs 0.26 for Charlson (all p<0.001). The need for transfusion was best predicted by Blatchford (p<0.001 vs Rockall and Charlson in both ATD users and controls), but all scores performed less well in ATD users. Area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) in control versus ATD: 0.90 vs 0.85 for Blatchford; 0.77 vs 0.61 for Rockall and 0.69 vs 0.56 for Charlson (all p<0.005). In predicting surgery, Rockall performed best; while mortality was best predicted by Charlson with lower AUCs in ATD patients than controls (p<0.05). Stratification showed the scores' performance to be age-dependent. Conclusions Blatchford score was the strongest predictor of transfusion, Rockall's had the strongest correlation with duration of admission and with rebleeding requiring surgery and Charlson was best in predicting 30-day mortality. Modifications of these systems should be explored to improve their efficiency in ATD users. PMID:28839866

  19. Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score. (United States)

    Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su


    There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.

  20. Risk factors for undescended testis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwers, M.M.; Bruijne, L.M. de; Gier, R.P.E. de; Zielhuis, G.A.; Feitz, W.F.J.; Roeleveld, N.


    OBJECTIVE: To contribute to the understanding of the etiology of undescended testis (UDT), by exploring a wide range of potential risk factors in a case-referent study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cases and referents were recruited at five hospitals and included 200 boys with surgically corrected UDT and

  1. Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti-Soler, Helena; Gubelmann, Cédric; Aeschbacher, Stefanie


    OBJECTIVE: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist...

  2. A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steen, J.T.; Albers, G.; Strunk, E.; Muller, M.T.; Ribbe, M.W.


    Background: The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in

  3. Internal Structure of Mini-CEX Scores for Internal Medicine Residents: Factor Analysis and Generalizability (United States)

    Cook, David A.; Beckman, Thomas J.; Mandrekar, Jayawant N.; Pankratz, V. Shane


    The mini-CEX is widely used to rate directly observed resident-patient encounters. Although several studies have explored the reliability of mini-CEX scores, the dimensionality of mini-CEX scores is incompletely understood. Objective: Explore the dimensionality of mini-CEX scores through factor analysis and generalizability analysis. Design:…

  4. Strongly enhanced colorectal cancer risk stratification by combining family history and genetic risk score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weigl K


    Full Text Available Korbinian Weigl,1,2 Jenny Chang-Claude,3,4 Phillip Knebel,5 Li Hsu,6 Michael Hoffmeister,1 Hermann Brenner1,2,7 1Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 2German Cancer Consortium (DKTK, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 3Unit of Genetic Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ, Heidelberg, 4University Cancer Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, 5Department for General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; 6Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA; 7Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT, Heidelberg, Germany Background and aim: Family history (FH and genetic risk scores (GRSs are increasingly used for risk stratification for colorectal cancer (CRC screening. However, they were mostly considered alternatively rather than jointly. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of individual and joint risk stratification for CRC by FH and GRS.Patients and methods: A GRS was built based on the number of risk alleles in 53 previously identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms among 2,363 patients with a first diagnosis of CRC and 2,198 controls in DACHS [colorectal cancer: chances for prevention through screening], a population-based case-control study in Germany. Associations between GRS and FH with CRC risk were quantified by multiple logistic regression.Results: A total of 316 cases (13.4% and 214 controls (9.7% had a first-degree relative (FDR with CRC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.86, 95% CI 1.52–2.29. A GRS in the highest decile was associated with a 3.0-fold increased risk of CRC (aOR 3.00, 95% CI 2.24–4.02 compared with the lowest decile. This association was tentatively more pronounced in older age groups. FH and GRS were essentially unrelated, and their

  5. Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome. (United States)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo


    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  6. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.


    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  7. Perinatal risk factors and social withdrawal behaviour. (United States)

    Guedeney, Antoine; Marchand-Martin, Laetitia; Cote, Sylvana J; Larroque, Béatrice


    The objectives of the study were (1) to assess prevalence of social withdrawal behaviour in infants aged 12 months included in the French Perinatal Risk Factor Study Eden; (2) To study the correlation between relational withdrawal and several perinatal and parental factors assessed in the EDEN study. A longitudinal study using the ADBB scale was conducted within the Eden Cohort in the year 2008. 1,586 infants were included in the study. Fourteen percent of the children who had an ADBB assessment had a score at 5 and over on the ADBB, a scale designed to assess social withdrawal behaviour at age 0-24 months. Social withdrawal at 12 months was associated with low birth weight, low gestational age and with intra uterine growth retardation. Social withdrawal was independently associated with several maternal and paternal risk factors. The level of social withdrawal behaviour increased with a score of maternal difficulties. This study on a large longitudinally followed volunteer sample demonstrate a clear association of social withdrawal behaviour at age one with low birth weight and preterm birth, possibly mediated by parental vulnerabilities. Social withdrawal behaviour seems to be an important alarm signal to detect early on particularly in premature and small for date babies. © Springer-Verlag 2012

  8. Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones. (United States)

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R


    Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

  9. Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units. (United States)

    Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph


    Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

  10. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia J Dominguez

    Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

  11. CRISP: Catheterization RISk score for Pediatrics: A Report from the Congenital Cardiac Interventional Study Consortium (CCISC). (United States)

    Nykanen, David G; Forbes, Thomas J; Du, Wei; Divekar, Abhay A; Reeves, Jaxk H; Hagler, Donald J; Fagan, Thomas E; Pedra, Carlos A C; Fleming, Gregory A; Khan, Danyal M; Javois, Alexander J; Gruenstein, Daniel H; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Moore, Phillip M; Wax, David H


    We sought to develop a scoring system that predicts the risk of serious adverse events (SAE's) for individual pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization procedures. Systematic assessment of risk of SAE in pediatric catheterization can be challenging in view of a wide variation in procedure and patient complexity as well as rapidly evolving technology. A 10 component scoring system was originally developed based on expert consensus and review of the existing literature. Data from an international multi-institutional catheterization registry (CCISC) between 2008 and 2013 were used to validate this scoring system. In addition we used multivariate methods to further refine the original risk score to improve its predictive power of SAE's. Univariate analysis confirmed the strong correlation of each of the 10 components of the original risk score with SAE attributed to a pediatric cardiac catheterization (P pediatric cardiac catheterization procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G


    .8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

  13. Risk factors for congenital hydrocephalus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Tina Noergaard; Rasmussen, Marie-Louise Hee; Wohlfahrt, Jan


    . Furthermore, to identify the risk factors unique for isolated CHC as compared to syndromic CHC. METHODS: We established a cohort of all children born in Denmark between 1978 and 2008. Information on CHC and maternal medical diseases were obtained from the National Patient Discharge Register, maternal intake...... increased risk of isolated CHC compared to unexposed children (RR 2.52, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.29) (1.5/1000 born children). Risk factors also found for syndromic CHC were: Male gender, multiples and maternal diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The higher risk for isolated CHC in first-born children as well as behavioural......-born children, we observed 1193 cases of isolated CHC (0.062/1000) born children. First-borns had an increased risk of isolated CHC compared to later-borns (1.32 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49) (0.72/1000 born children). First trimester exposure to maternal use of antidepressants was associated with a significantly...

  14. Usefulness of the Trabecular Bone Score for assessing the risk of osteoporotic fracture. (United States)

    Redondo, L; Puigoriol, E; Rodríguez, J R; Peris, P; Kanterewicz, E


    The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an imaging technique that assesses the condition of the trabecular microarchitecture. Preliminary results suggest that TBS, along with the bone mineral density assessment, could improve the calculation of the osteoporotic fracture risk. The aim of this study was to analyse TBS values and their relationship with the clinical characteristics, bone mineral density and history of fractures of a cohort of posmenopausal women. We analysed 2,257 posmenopausal women from the FRODOS cohort, which was created to determine the risk factors for osteoporotic fracture through a clinical survey and bone densitometry with vertebral morphometry. TBS was applied to the densitometry images. TBS values ≤1230 were considered indicative of degraded microarchitecture. We performed a simple and multiple linear regression to determine the factors associated with this index. The mean TBS value in L1-L4 was 1.203±0.121. Some 55.3% of the women showed values indicating degraded microarchitecture. In the multiple linear regression analysis, the factors associated with low TBS values were age, weight, height, spinal T-score, glucocorticoid treatment, presence of type 2 diabetes and a history of fractures due to frailty. TBS showed microarchitecture degradation values in the participants of the FRODOS cohort and was associated with anthropometric factors, low bone mineral density values, the presence of fractures, a history of type 2 diabetes mellitus and the use of glucocorticoids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  15. The Relationship Between Osteoporotic Risk Factors and Bone Mineral Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şule Şahin Onat


    Full Text Available Objective: Since osteoporosis is a preventable disease to some extent, risk factor determination and if possible modification is very important. The aim of this study is to identify the relationship between ostoporotic risk factors and bone mineral density results and emphasize the importance of risk factors. Materials and Methods: The study comprised 103 postmenopausal osteoporotic women. Demographic characteristics, osteoporortic risk factors, lumbar vertebrae and femur neck T scores were recorded. Relationships between lumbar vertebra and femur neck T scores and risk factors were statistically studied. Results: Advanced age, low physical activity status, inadequte dietary calcium intake and vertebral compression fractures were found to be associated with low bone mineral density results in postmenopausal osteoporotic women whereas marital status, occupation, education level and familial fracture history were not. Furthermore early menopause was found to be associated with low femoral T scores and smoking with low lumbar T scores. Tendency to fall and number of chronic diseases were irrelevant to bone mineral density. Conclusions: Risk factor assesment is still important for osteoporosis prevention. (Turkish Journal of Osteoporosis 2013;19:74-80

  16. Risk factors of fall in elderly people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dijana Avdić


    Full Text Available Falls are the leading accidental cause of death among elderly people in their homes. Falls and their consequences are the primary reason in 40% of admissions to hospitals for people older than 65 years. The study population consisted of 77 randomly selected patients of both genders older then 65 years. Each patient was tested in his/her home and was completely informed about the methodology and the goals of investigation. Based on the exclusion criteria, three patients were excluded from the study, which means the investigation was conducted on 27 males (35.06% and 50 females (64.94% with the average age being 71.23 ± 5.63 years.For each patient, a specially prepared questionnaire about risk factors was filled in. The sum of affirmative answers represented a relative index of fall risk. All patients were evaluated through Folstein’s Mini-Mental State Examination Test that is suitable for on-sight use in patient’s home. The score value over 20 excludes dementias, delirium, schizophrenia and affective disorders.Considering the values of the risk factor, scores obtained by the questionnaire and MMSE test scores, statistically significant differences were found between males and females (p < 0.005, respectively p < 0.01, “fallers” and “non-fallers” (p < 0.001, respectively p < 0.01, while considering the relation to the way of living (alone or with family, there were no statistically significant differences (p > 0.05.

  17. [Risk factors associated to preclampsia]. (United States)

    López-Carbajal, Mario Joaquín; Manríquez-Moreno, María Esther; Gálvez-Camargo, Daniela; Ramírez-Jiménez, Evelia


    preeclampsia constitutes one of the main causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated to the developmental of preeclampsia mild-moderate and severe, as well as the force of association of these factors in a hospital of second-level medical care. study of cases and controls, a relation 1:1, in women withdrawn of the Service of Gynecology and Obstetrics during 2004 to 2007. Pregnant women with more than 20 weeks gestation were included. In the cases group we included patients with diagnosis of preeclampsia mild-moderate or severe (corroborated clinical and laboratory). In the controls group that had a normal childbirth without pathology during the pregnancy. 42 cases and 42 controls. The average age was of 27 years. The associated risk factors were overweight, obesity, irregular prenatal control, short or long intergenesic period, history of caesarean or preeclampsia in previous pregnancies. the knowledge of the risk factors will allow the accomplishment of preventive measures and decrease the fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality due to preeclampsia.

  18. Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis. (United States)

    Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B


    Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history

  19. Genetic risk score predicting risk of rheumatoid arthritis phenotypes and age of symptom onset.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori B Chibnik

    Full Text Available Cumulative genetic profiles can help identify individuals at high-risk for developing RA. We examined the impact of 39 validated genetic risk alleles on the risk of RA phenotypes characterized by serologic and erosive status.We evaluated single nucleotide polymorphisms at 31 validated RA risk loci and 8 Human Leukocyte Antigen alleles among 542 Caucasian RA cases and 551 Caucasian controls from Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II. We created a weighted genetic risk score (GRS and evaluated it as 7 ordinal groups using logistic regression (adjusting for age and smoking to assess the relationship between GRS group and odds of developing seronegative (RF- and CCP-, seropositive (RF+ or CCP+, erosive, and seropositive, erosive RA phenotypes. In separate case only analyses, we assessed the relationships between GRS and age of symptom onset. In 542 RA cases, 317 (58% were seropositive, 163 (30% had erosions and 105 (19% were seropositive with erosions. Comparing the highest GRS risk group to the median group, we found an OR of 1.2 (95% CI = 0.8-2.1 for seronegative RA, 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9-4.7 for seropositive RA, 3.2 (95% CI = 1.8-5.6 for erosive RA, and 7.6 (95% CI = 3.6-16.3 for seropositive, erosive RA. No significant relationship was seen between GRS and age of onset.Results suggest that seronegative and seropositive/erosive RA have different genetic architecture and support the importance of considering RA phenotypes in RA genetic studies.

  20. Risk factors for sternal wound infections and application of the STS score in coronary artery bypass graft surgery Fatores de risco para infecção de ferida esternal e aplicação do escore da STS em pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Silvio Farsky


    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sternal wound infection (SWI after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG surgery is a major complication. Identifying patients at risk of SWI is essential for the application of preventive measures. OBJECTIVE: To identify the pre- and intra-operative risk factors, apply the STS risk score and determine the correlation between the risk score and microorganisms isolated from surgical wounds in a Brazilian hospital. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of a database of all CABG surgeries performed in a single institution from 2006 to 2008. Chi-square analysis was used for categorical variables and Student's t-test was used for quantitative variables. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify independent risk factors for SWI. P 40 kg/m² (OR 6.27, 95%CI 2.53-15.48; P40 kg/m², number of affected coronary arteries and use of bilateral internal thoracic artery were associated with a higher risk of infection. The STS risk score can be successfully used and there was no correlation between microorganisms, the score and risk factors at our institution.FUNDAMENTO: A infecção de ferida operatória esternal após cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica (CRM é uma grave complicação. Identificar pacientes com risco elevado é fundamental para introdução de medidas de preventivas. OBJETIVO: Identificar os fatores de risco pré e intra-operatórios, avaliar o escore de risco da STS e correlação entre o escore e os microorganismos isolados em ferida operatória em hospital brasileiro. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva de um banco de dados prospectivamente coletado de todas as CRM realizadas em centro único, no período de 2006 a 2008. Teste do qui-quadrado foi utilizado para variáveis categóricas e teste t-Student, para variáveis quantitativas. Modelo multivariado por regressão logística foi utilizado para identificação de fatores de risco independente para infecção de ferida esternal. P40 kg/m² (OR 5,38; IC

  1. Constrained Fisher Scoring for a Mixture of Factor Analyzers (United States)


    where ω ∈ [0, 4π). Each observation of the spiral is corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise with unit variance. This model was used in previous works...that notwithstanding any other provision of  law, no person shall be subject to any penalty  for  failing  to comply with a collection of  information...from different aspects and then learn a joint statistical model for the object manifold. We employ a mixture of factor analyzers model and derive a

  2. Development of a risk score for geographic atrophy in complications of the age-related macular degeneration prevention trial. (United States)

    Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G


    To develop a risk score for developing geographic atrophy (GA) involving easily obtainable information among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter randomized clinical trial. We included 1052 participants with ≥ 10 large (>125 μm) drusen and visual acuity ≥ 20/40 in each eye. In the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Prevention Trial (CAPT), 1 eye of each participant was randomly assigned to laser treatment and the contralateral eye was assigned to observation to evaluate whether laser treatment of drusen could prevent vision loss. Gradings by a reading center were used to identify: CAPT end point GA (total area of GA [>250 μm] > 1 disc area), GA (>175 μm) involving the foveal center (CGA), and GA of any size and location (any GA). Established risk factors (age, smoking status, hypertension, Age-related Eye Disease Study simple severity scale score), both with and without a novel risk factor (night vision score), were used in assigning risk points. The risk scores were evaluated for the ability to discriminate and calibrate GA risk. Development of end point GA, CGA, and any GA. Among 942 CAPT participants who completed 5 years of follow-up and did not have any GA at baseline, 6.8% participants developed CAPT end point GA, 9.6% developed CGA, and 34.4% developed any GA. The 5-year incidence of end point GA in 1 or both eyes of a participant increased with the 15-point GA risk score, from 0.6% for prevention of GA and for clinical assessment of GA risk in early AMD patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of a Genetic Risk Score for Coronary Artery Disease on Reducing Cardiovascular Risk: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Study

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    Joshua W. Knowles


    Full Text Available PurposeWe tested whether providing a genetic risk score (GRS for coronary artery disease (CAD would serve as a motivator to improve adherence to risk-reducing strategies.MethodsWe randomized 94 participants with at least moderate risk of CAD to receive standard-of-care with (N = 49 or without (N = 45 their GRS at a subsequent 3-month follow-up visit. Our primary outcome was change in low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C between the 3- and 6-month follow-up visits (ΔLDL-C. Secondary outcomes included other CAD risk factors, weight loss, diet, physical activity, risk perceptions, and psychological outcomes. In pre-specified analyses, we examined whether there was a greater motivational effect in participants with a higher GRS.ResultsSixty-five participants completed the protocol including 30 participants in the GRS arm. We found no change in the primary outcome between participants receiving their GRS and standard-of-care participants (ΔLDL-C: −13 vs. −9 mg/dl. Among participants with a higher GRS, we observed modest effects on weight loss and physical activity. All other secondary outcomes were not significantly different, including anxiety and worry.ConclusionAdding GRS to standard-of-care did not change lipids, adherence, or psychological outcomes. Potential modest benefits in weight loss and physical activity for participants with high GRS need to be validated in larger trials.

  4. Data on coronary artery calcium score performance and cardiovascular risk reclassification across gender and ethnicities

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    Marat Fudim


    Full Text Available The current guidelines recommend the new risk score, Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease score (ASCVD, to assess an individual׳s risk of future cardiovascular disease (CVD events. No data exist on the predictive utility of ASCVD score with the incremental value of coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS across ethnicities and gender. Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA is a population based study (n=6814 of White (38%, Black (28%, Chinese (22% and Hispanic (12% subjects, aged 45–84 years, free from clinical cardiovascular disease. We performed a post-hoc analysis of 6742 participants (mean age 62, 53% female from the MESA cohort. We evaluated the predictive accuracy for the ASCVD score for each participant in accord with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines using pooled cohort equations. Similar to the publication by Fudim et al. “The Metabolic Syndrome, Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk Reclassification” [1] the analytic properties of models incorporating the ASCVD score with and without CACS were compared for cardiovascular disease CVD prediction. Here the analysis focused on ASCVD score (with and without CACS performance across gender and ethnicities. Keywords: Risk stratification, Coronary calcium scoring, Gender, Ethnicity, MESA, {C}{C}

  5. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study. (United States)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B


     To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length

  6. Disability as a risk factor?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Louise; Dammeyer, Jesper


    Empirical research has established that children with disabilities are more likely to develop psychopathology than children without disabilities. But too little is known about the association between disability and psychopathology. The aim of this article is to discuss developmental...... psychopathological models that conceptualize the connection between childhood disability and psychopathology. Empirical studies of psychopathology among children with a congenital hearing impairment and children with cerebral palsy will be reviewed, representing in-depth examples of association between disability...... and psychopathology. Both a congenital hearing impairment and cerebral palsy were found to be dominating risk factors for all types of psychopathology, but no relationship was identified between degree of disability and risk of psychopathology. The higher risk cannot be explained by biological impairments alone...

  7. Neurodevelopmental risk factors in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lobato M.I.


    Full Text Available The authors review environmental and neurodevelopmental risk factors for schizophrenic disorders, with emphasis on minor physical anomalies, particularly craniofacial anomalies and dermatoglyphic variations. The high prevalence of these anomalies among schizophrenic subjects supports the neurodevelopmental theory of the etiology of schizophrenia, since they suggest either genetically or epigenetically controlled faulty embryonic development of structures of ectodermal origin like brain and skin. This may disturb neurodevelopment that in turn may cause these subjects to be at increased risk for the development of schizophrenia and related disorders. The precise confirmation of this theory, at least in some cases, will provide further understanding of these illnesses, allowing easy and inexpensive identification of subjects at risk and providing guidelines for the development of new pharmacological interventions for early treatment and even for primary prevention of the illness.

  8. Adolescent self-harm and risk factors. (United States)

    Zhang, Jixiang; Song, Jianwei; Wang, Jing


    This study aims to define the characteristics of adolescents who have engaged in self-harm behavior and ascertain the risk factors. From January 2013 to January 2014, 4,176 adolescents from senior middle schools in Linyi, China, were administered four questionnaire surveys to ascertain the following: incidence of self-harm behavior regarding the frequency of different self-harm behaviors by group (never/one to five times/greater than five times in the last 6 months) and then comparing the self-harm behavior of the different subgroups; symptom self-check, comparing the differences between the adolescents with self-harm behavior and without in nine subscales (somatization, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anxiety, hostility, fear, paranoid, and psychosis); Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List scores; and Egna Minnenav Barndoms Uppfostran (EMBU) scores. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors of self-harm in adolescents. The incidence of adolescent self-harm was 27.60%; the occurrence of adolescent self-harm was closely related to their mental health status, stressful life events, and EMBU. Being female, an urban student, or an only child; having poor school performance or experiences of stressful life events, harsh parenting styles, or excessive interference; and poor mental health were the risk factors for adolescent self-harm. The incidence of adolescent self-harm was high, and their mental health status, stressful life events, and EMBU affected the occurrence of adolescent self-harm, which is an issue that needs greater attention. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  9. Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population. (United States)

    Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R


    A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Almanac 2012: Cardiovascular risk scores. The national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill P. Pell


    Full Text Available Global risk scores use individual level information on non-modifiable risk factors (such as age, sex, ethnicity and family history and modifiable risk factors (such as smoking status and blood pressure to predict an individual’s absolute risk of an adverse event over a specified period of time in the future. Cardiovascular risk scores have two major uses in practice. First, they can be used to dichotomise people into a group whose baseline risk, and therefore potential absolute benefit, is sufficiently high to justify the costs and risks associated with an intervention (whether treatment or prevention and a group with a lower absolute risk to whom the intervention is usually denied. Second, they can be used to assess the effectiveness of an intervention (such as smoking cessation or antihypertensive treatment at reducing an individual’s risk of future adverse events. In this context, they can be helpful in informing patients, motivating them to change their lifestyle, and reinforcing the importance of continued compliance.

  11. Perinatal risk factors including malformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.


    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project 'Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria' is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG) [de

  12. Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community. (United States)

    Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L


    Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

  13. Myocardium at risk assessed by electrocardiographic scores and cardiovascular magnetic resonance - a MITOCARE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejersten, Maria; Fakhri, Yama; Pape, Marianne


    Introduction The myocardium at risk (MaR) represents the quantitative ischemic area destined to myocardial infarction (MI) if no reperfusion therapy is initiated. Different ECG scores for MaR have been developed, but there is no consensus as to which should be preferred. Objective Comparisons...... of ECG scores and Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) for determining MaR. Methods MaR was determined by 3 different ECG scores, and by CMR in ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI) patients from the MITOCARE cardioprotection trial. The Aldrich score (AL) is based on the number of leads with ST-elevation...... for anterior MI and the sum of ST-segment elevation for inferior MI on the admission ECG. The van Hellemond score (VH) considers both the ischemic and infarcted component of the MaR by adding the AL and the QRS score, which is an estimate of final infarct size. The Hasche score is based on the maximal possible...

  14. Risk factors for corneal ectasia after LASIK. (United States)

    Tabbara, Khalid F; Kotb, Amgad A


    To establish a grading system that helps identify high-risk individuals who may experience corneal ectasia after LASIK. Retrospective, comparative, interventional case series. One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients (148 eyes) were included in this study. Thirty-seven patients who underwent LASIK at other refractive centers experienced corneal ectasia in 1 eye after LASIK. One hundred eleven eyes of 111 patients who underwent successful LASIK during the same period were age and gender matched and served as controls. All patients underwent preoperative and postoperative topographic analysis of the cornea. The follow-up period in both groups of patients ranged from 2 to 5 years, with a mean follow-up of 3.6 years. All patients underwent LASIK for myopia (spherical equivalent, -4.00 to -8.00 diopters). Corneal keratometry, oblique cylinder, pachymetry, posterior surface elevation, difference between the inferior and superior corneal diopteric power, and posterior best sphere fit (BSF) over anterior BSF were given a grade of 1 to 3 each. An ectasia grading system was established, and the cumulative risk score was assessed. Patients who had a grade of 7 or less showed no evidence of corneal ectasia, whereas 16 (59%) of 27 patients who had a grade of 8 to 12 had corneal ectasia. Twenty-one (100%) of 21 patients with a grade of more than 12 had corneal ectasia after LASIK (P<0.0001). A risk score may help in the prediction of patients who are at risk of experiencing corneal ectasia after LASIK. A prospective clinical study is needed to assess the validity of these risk factors.

  15. Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes. (United States)

    Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela


    In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allahyar Golabchi


    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In most studies, the agreeable risk scores for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI consist of thrombolytic in myocardial infarction (TIMI risk score and modified Gensini risk score. Researchers showed significant relations between TIMI with angiography scores in patients with UA/NSTEMI. We studied this relation in patients with STEMI.    METHODS: We studied CCU patients with STEMI hospitalized in several hospitals of Isfahan, Iran from September 2007 to June 2008. Sampling method of 240 patients was random and simple. Exclusion criteria were incomplete history, nonspecific electrocardiogram changes, left bundle branch block and not accomplished angiography or accomplished angiography after 2 months of STEMI. Questionnaire indices collected on the basis of TIMI (0-14 points. Echocardiography and angiography were done and then, we used Gensini (0-400 points to review films of angiography. Spearman`s rank test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to study the relation between these scores.    RESULTS: One hundred and sixty one patients were male and their average age was 60.02 years. Averages of TIMI and Gensini scores were 6.30 ± 2.5 and 120.77 ± 50.4, respectively. Study showed significant relation between TIMI, age and LVEF (P <0.001, r=-0.46. Also, between Gensini and age, gender and LVEF significant relation was found (P <0.001. But, a meaningful correlation didn’t exist between TIMI and the gender (P =0.08. Our study proved direct relation between TIMI risk scores and modified Gensini scores (P <0.001, r=0.55.     CONCLUSION: We may decide quickly and correctly in emergency room to distinguish which patients with STEMI could derive a benefit from invasive strategies using TIMI score. Also, TIMI risk score can be a good predictor to determine the extension of coronary artery disease in patients with STEMI. As a result, we suggest determination of TIMI score for any patient entered emergency room. Also

  17. A characterization of factors determining postoperative ileus after laparoscopic colectomy enables the generation of a novel predictive score. (United States)

    Kronberg, Udo; Kiran, Ravi P; Soliman, Mohamed S M; Hammel, Jeff P; Galway, Ursula; Coffey, John Calvin; Fazio, Victor W


    Postoperative ileus (POI) after colorectal surgery is associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased costs. The aim of this study is to investigate pre-, intra-, and postoperative risk factors associated with the development of POI in patients undergoing laparoscopic partial colectomy. Patients operated between 2004 and 2008 were retrospectively identified from a prospectively maintained database, and clinical, metabolic, and pharmacologic data were obtained. Postoperative ileus was defined as the absence of bowel function for 5 or more days or the need for reinsertion of a nasogastric tube after starting oral diet in the absence of mechanical obstruction. Associations between likelihood of POI and study variables were assessed univariably by using χ tests, Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression models. A scoring system for prediction of POI was constructed by using a multivariable logistic regression model based on forward stepwise selection of preoperative factors. A total of 413 patients (mean age, 58 years; 53.5% women) were included, and 42 (10.2%) of them developed POI. Preoperative albumin, postoperative deep-vein thrombosis, and electrolyte levels were associated with POI. Age, previous abdominal surgery, and chronic preoperative use of narcotics were independently correlated with POI on multivariate analysis, which allowed the creation of a predictive score. Patients with a score of 2 or higher had an 18.3% risk of POI (P POI can be predicted by using a preoperative scoring system. Addressing the postoperative factors may be expected to reduce the incidence of this common complication in high-risk patients.

  18. Risk factors for tornado injuries. (United States)

    Eidson, M; Lybarger, J A; Parsons, J E; MacCormack, J N; Freeman, J I


    Tornadoes in North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984 caused 252 people to be injured seriously enough to require hospitalization and 59 to be killed. To evaluate risk factors, we gathered information on 238 (94%) of those hospitalized and 46 (78%) of those killed. Those hospitalized or deceased had statistically significantly more deep cuts, concussions, unconsciousness and broken bones than those with them at the time of the tornado who were not hospitalized or killed. People living in mobile homes were more likely to be hospitalized or die than people occupying conventional houses. Other risk factors for hospitalization or death included advanced age (60+ years), no physical protection (not having been covered with a blanket or other object), having been struck by broken window glass or other falling objects, home lifted off its foundation, collapsed ceiling or floor, or walls blown away. More awareness of the tornado risk before it strikes and better adherence to tornado protection guidelines could reduce injuries and deaths in the future.

  19. Residency factors that influence pediatric in-training examination score improvement. (United States)

    Chase, Lindsay H; Highbaugh-Battle, Angela P; Buchter, Susie


    The goal of this study was to determine which measurable factors of resident training experience contribute to improvement of in-training examination (ITE) and certifying examination (CE) scores. This is a descriptive retrospective study analyzing data from July 2003 through June 2006 at a large academic pediatric training program. Pediatric categorical residents beginning residency in July 2003 were included. Regression analyses were used to determine if the number of admissions performed, core lectures attended, acute care topics heard, grand rounds attended, continuity clinic patients encountered, or procedures performed correlated with improvement of ITE scores. These factors were then analyzed in relation to CE scores. Seventeen residents were included in this study. The number of general pediatric admissions was the only factor found to correlate with an increase in ITE score (P = .04). Scores for the ITE at pediatric levels 1 and 3 were predictive of CE scores. No other factors measured were found to influence CE scores. Although all experiences of pediatric residents likely contribute to professional competence, some experiences may have more effect on ITE and CE scores. In this study, only general pediatric admissions correlated significantly with an improvement in ITE scores from year 1 to year 3. Further study is needed to identify which elements of the residency experience contribute most to CE success. This would be helpful in optimizing residency program structure and curriculum within the limitations of duty hour regulations.

  20. Tracking of clustered cardiovascular disease risk factors from childhood to adolescence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bugge, Anna; El-Naaman, Bianca; McMurray, Robert G


    samples were analyzed for CVD risk factors. A clustered risk-score (z-score) was constructed by adding sex-specific z-scores for blood pressure, homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR), triglyceride, skinfolds and negative values of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc) and VO(2peak...

  1. The SAFARI Score to Assess the Risk of Convulsive Seizure During Admission for Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage. (United States)

    Jaja, Blessing N R; Schweizer, Tom A; Claassen, Jan; Le Roux, Peter; Mayer, Stephan A; Macdonald, R Loch


    Seizure is a significant complication in patients under acute admission for aneurysmal SAH and could result in poor outcomes. Treatment strategies to optimize management will benefit from methods to better identify at-risk patients. To develop and validate a risk score for convulsive seizure during acute admission for SAH. A risk score was developed in 1500 patients from a single tertiary hospital and externally validated in 852 patients. Candidate predictors were identified by systematic review of the literature and were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression model with in-hospital seizure as a dependent variable. The risk score was assessed for discrimination using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) and for calibration using a goodness-of-fit test. The SAFARI score, based on 4 items (age ≥ 60 yr, seizure occurrence before hospitalization, ruptured aneurysm in the anterior circulation, and hydrocephalus requiring cerebrospinal fluid diversion), had AUC = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.82 in the development cohort. The validation cohort had AUC = 0.65, 95% CI 0.56-0.73. A calibrated increase in the risk of seizure was noted with increasing SAFARI score points. The SAFARI score is a simple tool that adequately stratified SAH patients according to their risk for seizure using a few readily derived predictor items. It may contribute to a more individualized management of seizure following SAH.

  2. Diabetes risk score in the United Arab Emirates: a screening tool for the early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus (United States)

    Sulaiman, Nabil; Hussein, Amal; Elbadawi, Salah; Abusnana, Salah; Zimmet, Paul


    Objective The objective of this study was to develop a simple non-invasive risk score, specific to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) citizens, to identify individuals at increased risk of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods A retrospective analysis of the UAE National Diabetes and Lifestyle data was conducted. The data included demographic and anthropometric measurements, and fasting blood glucose. Univariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for diabetes. The risk score was developed for UAE citizens using a stepwise forward regression model. Results A total of 872 UAE citizens were studied. The overall prevalence of diabetes in the UAE adult citizens in the Northern Emirates was 25.1%. The significant risk factors identified for diabetes were age (≥35 years), a family history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index ≥30.0 and waist-to-hip ratio ≥0.90 for males and ≥0.85 for females. The performance of the model was moderate in terms of sensitivity (75.4%, 95% CI 68.3 to 81.7) and specificity (70%, 95% CI 65.8 to 73.9). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86). Conclusions A simple, non-invasive risk score model was developed to help to identify those at high risk of having diabetes among UAE citizens. This score could contribute to the efficient and less expensive earlier detection of diabetes in this high-risk population. PMID:29629178

  3. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese


    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  4. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva


    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  5. Risk factor management: antiatherogenic therapies. (United States)

    Gielen, Stephan; Sandri, Marcus; Schuler, Gerhard; Teupser, Daniel


    Despite the advances in interventional techniques, the management of stable atherosclerosis remains the domain of optimal guideline-oriented therapy. Recent studies on the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on atheroma volume changes using intravascular ultrasound indicate that it is possible to achieve atherosclerosis regression by reaching low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels less than 75 mg/dl. The pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects of statins contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular (CV) event observed with aggressive lipid lowering. As a second important strategy to prevent disease progression, lifestyle changes with regular physical exercise are capable of halting the atherosclerotic process and reducing angina symptoms and CV events. Optimal medical therapy, a healthy lifestyle with regular physical exercise, and coronary interventions are not mutually exclusive treatment strategies. Over the last few decades, both have proved to be effective in significantly reducing the CV mortality in the Western world. However, risk factor modification contributed to at least half the effect in the reduction of CV mortality. This figure provides an estimate of what could be achieved if we were to take risk factor modification more seriously - especially in the acute care setting. The knowledge is there: today we have a better understanding on how to stop progression and even induce regression of atherosclerosis. Much research still needs to be done and will be done. In the meantime, however, our primary focus should lie in implementing what is already known. In addition, it is essential not just to treat CV risk factors, but also to treat them to achieve the target values as set by the guidelines of European Society of Cardiology.

  6. Risk factors of teenage pregnancy


    Maria Siettou; Maria Saridi


    Teenage pregnancy is a worldwide medical and social issue, associated with many physical, psychological and social consequences and can result in birth, miscarriage or abortion. Aim: The aim of the present study is to find those risk factors that contribute to teenage pregnancy. Results: In U.S.A., according to data from Unicef, the birth rate among teenagers touches the 52.1% and it is four times higher, than the corresponding rate recorded in the countries of Western Europe. The United King...

  7. [Clinical scores for the risk of bleeding with or without anticoagulation]. (United States)

    Junod, Alain


    The assessment of hemorragic risk related to therapeutic anticoagulation is made difficult because of the variety of existing drugs, the heterogeneity of treatment strategies and their duration. Six prognostic scores have been analyzed. For three of them, external validations have revealed a marked decrease in the discrimination power. One British study, Qbleed, based on the data of more than 1 million of ambulatory patients, has repeatedly satisfied quality criteria. Two scores have also studied the bleeding risk during hospital admission for acute medical disease. The development of new and effective anticoagulants with fewer side-effects is more likely to solve this problem than the production of new clinical scores.

  8. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė


    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  9. Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk. (United States)

    Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin


    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (Pgout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

  10. [Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old]. (United States)

    González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M


    The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

  11. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R


    OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN: International multicentre prospective study. SETTING: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania...... clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined...... accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited...

  12. Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings. (United States)

    Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney


    Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Factor Analysis of Temperament Category Scores in a Sample of Nursery School Children. (United States)

    Simonds, John F.; Simonds, M. Patricia


    Mothers of children attending nursery schools completed the Behavior Style Questionnaire (BSQ) from which scores for nine temperament categories were derived. Found membership in groups based on factor scores independent of sex, socioeconomic class, age but not ordinal birth position. (Author)

  14. Genetic risk analysis of coronary artery disease in Pakistani subjects using a genetic risk score of 21 variants. (United States)

    Shahid, Saleem Ullah; Shabana; Cooper, Jackie A; Beaney, Katherine E; Li, Kawah; Rehman, Abdul; Humphries, Steve E


    Conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors like age, gender, blood lipids, hypertension and smoking have been the basis of CAD risk prediction algorithms, but provide only modest discrimination. Genetic risk score (GRS) may provide improved discrimination over and above conventional risk factors. Here we analyzed the genetic risk of CAD in subjects from Pakistan, using a GRS of 21 variants in 18 genes and examined whether the GRS is associated with blood lipid levels. 625 (405 cases and 220 controls) subjects were genotyped for variants, NOS3 rs1799983, SMAD3 rs17228212, APOB rs1042031, LPA rs3798220, LPA rs10455872, SORT1 rs646776, APOE rs429358, GLUL rs10911021, FTO rs9939609, MIA3 rs17465637, CDKN2Ars10757274, DAB2IP rs7025486, CXCL12 rs1746048, ACE rs4341, APOA5 rs662799, CETP rs708272, MRAS rs9818870, LPL rs328, LPL rs1801177, PCSK9 rs11591147 and APOE rs7412 by TaqMan and KASPar allele discrimination techniques. Individually, the single SNPs were not associated with CAD except APOB rs1042031 and FTO rs993969 (p = 0.01 and 0.009 respectively). However, the combined GRS of 21 SNPs was significantly higher in cases than controls (19.37 ± 2.56 vs. 18.47 ± 2.45, p = 2.9 × 10 -5 ), and compared to the bottom quintile, CAD risk in the top quintile of the GRS was 2.96 (95% CI 1.71-5.13). Atherogenic blood lipids showed significant positive association with GRS. The GRS was quantitatively associated with CAD risk and showed association with blood lipid levels, suggesting that the mechanism of these variants is likely to be, in part at least, through creating an atherogenic lipid profile in subjects carrying high numbers of risk alleles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score. (United States)

    Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza


    Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

  16. External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar


    Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

  17. New risk factors for atherosclerosis and patient risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fruchart, Jean-Charles; Nierman, Melchior C.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Duriez, Patrick


    Advances in our understanding of the ways in which the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including standard lipid (eg, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nonlipid (eg, hypertension) risk factors, interact to initiate

  18. Coronary artery calcification scores improve contrast-induced nephropathy risk assessment in chronic kidney disease patients. (United States)

    Osugi, Naohiro; Suzuki, Susumu; Shibata, Yohei; Tatami, Yosuke; Harata, Shingo; Ota, Tomoyuki; Hayashi, Mutsuharu; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Ishii, Hideki; Shimizu, Atsuya; Murohara, Toyoaki


    Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of CAC scores for the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after cardiac catheterization in non-dialyzed CKD patients. The present study evaluated a total of 140 CKD patients who underwent cardiac catheterization. Patients were stratified into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of the CAC score, which was graded by a non-triggered, routine diagnostic chest computed tomography scan: CAC score ≥8 (high CAC group); and CAC score 10 % in the baseline serum cystatin C level at 24 h after contrast administration. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate levels were 41.1 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , and the mean contrast dose administered was 37.5 mL. Patients with high CAC scores exhibited a higher incidence of CIN than patients with low CAC scores (25.5 vs. 3.2 %, p < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment for confounders, the CAC score predicted CIN (odds ratio 1.68, 95 % confidence interval 1.28-2.21, p < 0.001). Moreover, the C-index for CIN prediction significantly increased when the CAC scores were added to the Mehran risk score (0.855 vs. 0.760, p = 0.023). CAC scores, as evaluated using semi-quantitative methods, are a simple and powerful predictor of CIN. Incorporating the CAC score in the Mehran risk score significantly improved the predictive ability to predict CIN incidence.

  19. Recurrent Stroke: The Value of the CHA2DS2VASc Score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score in a Nationwide Stroke Cohort. (United States)

    Andersen, Søren Due; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard


    The CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score are respectively used for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation and in patients with cerebrovascular incidents. We aimed to test the ability of the 2 scores to predict stroke recurrence, death, and cardiovascular events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or arterial thromboembolism) in a nationwide Danish cohort study, among patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. We conducted a registry-based study in patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. Patients were stratified according to the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score and were followed up until stroke recurrence or death. We estimated stratified incidence rates and hazard ratios and calculated the cumulative risks. 42 182 patients with incident ischemic stroke with median age 70.1 years were included. The overall 1-year incidence rates of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events were 3.6%, 10.5%, and 6.7%, respectively. The incidence rates, the hazard ratios, and the cumulative risk of all outcomes increased with increasing risk scores. C-statistics for both risk scores were around 0.55 for 1-year stroke recurrence and cardiovascular events and correspondingly for death around 0.67 for both scores. In this cohort of non-atrial fibrillation patients with incident ischemic stroke, increasing CHA2DS2VASc score and Essen Stroke Risk Score was associated with increasing risk of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events. Their discriminatory performance was modest and further refinements are required for clinical application. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults. (United States)

    Elledge, Julie


    As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

  1. Is there a role for coronary artery calcium scoring for management of asymptomatic patients at risk for coronary artery disease?: Clinical risk scores are not sufficient to define primary prevention treatment strategies among asymptomatic patients. (United States)

    Blaha, Michael J; Silverman, Michael G; Budoff, Matthew J


    Although risk factors have proven to be useful therapeutic targets, they are poor predictors of risk. Traditional risk scores are moderately successful in predicting future CHD events and can be a starting place for general risk categorization. However, there is substantial heterogeneity between traditional risk and actual atherosclerosis burden, with event rates predominantly driven by burden of atherosclerosis. Serum biomarkers have yet to show any clinically significant incremental value to the FRS and even when combined cannot match the predictive value of atherosclerosis imaging. As clinicians, are we willing to base therapy decisions on risk models that lack optimum-achievable accuracy and limit personalization? The decision to treat a patient in primary prevention must be a careful one because the benefit of therapy in an asymptomatic patient must clearly outweigh the potential risk. CAC, in particular, provides a personalized assessment of risk and may identify patients who will be expected to derive the most, and the least, net absolute benefit from treatment. Emerging evidence hints that CAC may also promote long-term adherence to aspirin, exercise, diet, and statin therapy. When potentially lifelong treatment decisions are on the line, clinicians must arm their patients with the most accurate risk prediction tools, and subclinical atherosclerosis testing with CAC is, at the present time, superior to any combination of risk factors and serum biomarkers.

  2. Interaction of a genetic risk score with physical activity, physical inactivity, and body mass index in relation to venous thromboembolism risk. (United States)

    Kim, Jihye; Kraft, Peter; Hagan, Kaitlin A; Harrington, Laura B; Lindstroem, Sara; Kabrhel, Christopher


    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is highly heritable. Physical activity, physical inactivity and body mass index (BMI) are also risk factors, but evidence of interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors is limited. Data on 2,134 VTE cases and 3,890 matched controls were obtained from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), Nurses' Health Study II (NHS II), and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). We calculated a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) using 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with VTE risk in published genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Data on three risk factors, physical activity (metabolic equivalent [MET] hours per week), physical inactivity (sitting hours per week) and BMI, were obtained from biennial questionnaires. VTE cases were incident since cohort inception; controls were matched to cases on age, cohort, and genotype array. Using conditional logistic regression, we assessed joint effects and interaction effects on both additive and multiplicative scales. We also ran models using continuous wGRS stratified by risk-factor categories. We observed a supra-additive interaction between wGRS and BMI. Having both high wGRS and high BMI was associated with a 3.4-fold greater risk of VTE (relative excess risk due to interaction = 0.69, p = 0.046). However, we did not find evidence for a multiplicative interaction with BMI. No interactions were observed for physical activity or inactivity. We found a synergetic effect between a genetic risk score and high BMI on the risk of VTE. Intervention efforts lowering BMI to decrease VTE risk may have particularly large beneficial effects among individuals with high genetic risk. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  3. Low amniotic fluid index in high risk pregnancy and poor apgar score at birth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultana, S.; Akhtar, K.A.K.


    To determine the accuracy of antepartum Amniotic Fluid Index (AFI) of 5 cm was labeled as predictor of good outcome at birth. The subjects in both the groups were demographically matched and fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Apgar score was calculated at 5 minutes of birth. The newborns, with Apgar score 6 were labeled as healthy. AFI was compared with Apgar score, using Chi-square and a p-value was calculated to determine the statistical significance. Sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and the predictive values of AFI at a cut off point of < 5 cm as a predictor of adverse outcome at birth (Apgar score of < 6 at 5 minutes of birth) in high-risk pregnancy were calculated. Only 8 neonates of 50 women with low AFI had low Apgar score. Similarly, 6 neonates of 50 women with normal AFI had poor Apgar score. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and efficiency of AFI as test were 57.1%, 51.3%, 16%, 88% and 52% respectively. Low AFI is a poor predictor of adverse outcome for high-risk term patients. AFI is not a good screening test for high-risk pregnant women at term for birth of an infant with low Apgar score. (author)

  4. Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment (United States)

    ... turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment Past Issues / Summer 2013 Table ... Articles Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone / Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment / Timely Healthcare Checkup Catches Melanoma ...

  5. 459 Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Jan 18, 2011 ... injury. Risk factors may be considered as characteristic indicators ... by examining the cardiovascular risk factors that are related to various forms .... Cross country race, Handball, Jogging, Rope jumping, Running Soccer,.

  6. Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes (United States)

    In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

  7. [Risk scores for the development of venous thromboembolism in ambulatory patients and in patients hospitalized for acute medical disease]. (United States)

    Junod, A


    The recognition of an increased risk of VTE following surgery has initiated a similar investigation in: 1) Ambulatory subjects. In this group, the Qthrombosis score has identified 8 to 11 risk factors. The incidence of VTE is of the order of 0,15%/year. 2) The patients admitted to hospital for an acute medical disease. Nine scores are available for analysis. Results are difficult to interpret because of confusing factors: the inclusion of symptomatic VTE only or both symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE; the uncontrolled prescription of thromboprophylaxis. VTE incidence over 3 months varies between 15 and 0,5%, but is around 1% in the most recent studies. New studies, with a more rigorous methodological approach, are needed.

  8. Women's Heart Disease: Heart Disease Risk Factors (United States)

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Women's Heart Disease Heart Disease Risk Factors Past Issues / Winter 2014 Table ... or habits may raise your risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). These conditions are known as risk ...

  9. East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance. (United States)

    Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul


    To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

  10. Seed Implant Retention Score Predicts the Risk of Prolonged Urinary Retention After Prostate Brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hoon K.; Adams, Marc T.; Shi, Qiuhu; Basillote, Jay; LaMonica, Joanne; Miranda, Luis; Motta, Joseph


    Purpose: To risk-stratify patients for urinary retention after prostate brachytherapy according to a novel seed implant retention score (SIRS). Patients and Methods: A total of 835 patients underwent transperineal prostate seed implant from March 1993 to January 2007; 197 patients had 125 I and 638 patients had 103 Pd brachytherapy. Four hundred ninety-four patients had supplemental external-beam radiation. The final downsized prostate volume was used for the 424 patients who had neoadjuvant hormone therapy. Retention was defined as reinsertion of a Foley catheter after the implant. Results: Retention developed in 7.4% of patients, with an average duration of 6.7 weeks. On univariate analysis, implant without supplemental external-beam radiation (10% vs. 5.6%; p = 0.02), neoadjuvant hormone therapy (9.4% vs. 5.4%; p = 0.02), baseline α-blocker use (12.5% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.008), and increased prostate volume (13.4% vs. 6.9% vs. 2.9%, >45 cm 3 , 25-45 cm 3 , 3 ; p = 0.0008) were significantly correlated with increased rates of retention. On multivariate analysis, implant without supplemental external-beam radiation, neoadjuvant hormone therapy, baseline α-blocker use, and increased prostate volume were correlated with retention. A novel SIRS was modeled as the combined score of these factors, ranging from 0 to 5. There was a significant correlation between the SIRS and retention (p < 0.0001). The rates of retention were 0, 4%, 5.6%, 9%, 20.9%, and 36.4% for SIRS of 0 to 5, respectively. Conclusions: The SIRS may identify patients who are at high risk for prolonged retention after prostate brachytherapy. A prospective validation study of the SIRS is planned.

  11. Risk factors for venous thromboembolism during pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Bo; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Grøn, Randi


    Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated.......Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated....

  12. Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data. (United States)

    Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J


    Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  13. Molecular Risk Factors for Schizophrenia. (United States)

    Modai, Shira; Shomron, Noam


    Schizophrenia (SZ) is a complex and strongly heritable mental disorder, which is also associated with developmental-environmental triggers. As opposed to most diagnosable diseases (yet similar to other mental disorders), SZ diagnosis is commonly based on psychiatric evaluations. Recently, large-scale genetic and epigenetic approaches have been applied to SZ research with the goal of potentially improving diagnosis. Increased computational analyses and applied statistical algorithms may shed some light on the complex genetic and epigenetic pathways contributing to SZ pathogenesis. This review discusses the latest advances in molecular risk factors and diagnostics for SZ. Approaches such as these may lead to a more accurate definition of SZ and assist in creating extended and reliable clinical diagnoses with the potential for personalized treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Ramírez-Prado


    Full Text Available As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]. Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049. After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department.

  15. Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads


    Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

  16. Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Straand Jørund


    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK, 4.4% (SCORE and 14.5% (Framingham had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females.

  17. Vascular Risk Factors and Clinical Progression in Spinocerebellar Ataxias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond Y. Lo


    Full Text Available Background: The contributions of vascular risk factors to spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA are not known.Methods: We studied 319 participants with SCA 1, 2, 3, and 6 and repeatedly measured clinical severity using the Scale for Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA for 2 years. Vascular risk factors were summarized by CHA2DS2-VASc scores as the vascular risk factor index. We employed regression models to study the effects of vascular risk factors on ataxia onset and progression after adjusting for age, sex, and pathological CAG repeats. Our secondary analyses took hyperlipidemia into account.Results: Nearly 60% of SCA participants were at low vascular risks with CHA2DS2-VASc = 0, and 31% scored 2 or greater. Higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores were not associated with either earlier onset or faster progression of ataxia. These findings were not altered after accounting for hyperlipidemia. Discussion: Vascular risks are not common in SCAs and are not associated with earlier onset or faster ataxia progression.

  18. Polygenic risk score and heritability estimates reveals a genetic relationship between ASD and OCD. (United States)

    Guo, W; Samuels, J F; Wang, Y; Cao, H; Ritter, M; Nestadt, P S; Krasnow, J; Greenberg, B D; Fyer, A J; McCracken, J T; Geller, D A; Murphy, D L; Knowles, J A; Grados, M A; Riddle, M A; Rasmussen, S A; McLaughlin, N C; Nurmi, E L; Askland, K D; Cullen, B A; Piacentini, J; Pauls, D L; Bienvenu, O J; Stewart, S E; Goes, F S; Maher, B; Pulver, A E; Valle, D; Mattheisen, M; Qian, J; Nestadt, G; Shugart, Y Y


    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are both highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders that conceivably share genetic risk factors. However, the underlying genetic determinants remain largely unknown. In this work, the authors describe a combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ASD and OCD. The OCD dataset includes 2998 individuals in nuclear families. The ASD dataset includes 6898 individuals in case-parents trios. GWAS summary statistics were examined for potential enrichment of functional variants associated with gene expression levels in brain regions. The top ranked SNP is rs4785741 (chromosome 16) with P value=6.9×10 -7 in our re-analysis. Polygenic risk score analyses were conducted to investigate the genetic relationship within and across the two disorders. These analyses identified a significant polygenic component of ASD, predicting 0.11% of the phenotypic variance in an independent OCD data set. In addition, we examined the genomic architecture of ASD and OCD by estimating heritability on different chromosomes and different allele frequencies, analyzing genome-wide common variant data by using the Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) program. The estimated global heritability of OCD is 0.427 (se=0.093) and 0.174 (se=0.053) for ASD in these imputed data. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Aerobic fitness related to cardiovascular risk factors in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K


    Low aerobic fitness (maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK))) is predictive for poor health in adults. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed if VO(2PEAK) is related to a composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 243 children (136 boys and 107 girls) aged 8 to 11 years. VO(2PEAK...

  20. Improvement of Risk Prediction After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement by Combining Frailty With Conventional Risk Scores. (United States)

    Schoenenberger, Andreas W; Moser, André; Bertschi, Dominic; Wenaweser, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Carrel, Thierry; Stuck, Andreas E; Stortecky, Stefan


    This study sought to evaluate whether frailty improves mortality prediction in combination with the conventional scores. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) or Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score have not been evaluated in combined models with frailty for mortality prediction after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This prospective cohort comprised 330 consecutive TAVR patients ≥70 years of age. Conventional scores and a frailty index (based on assessment of cognition, mobility, nutrition, and activities of daily living) were evaluated to predict 1-year all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression (providing hazard ratios [HRs] with confidence intervals [CIs]) and measures of test performance (providing likelihood ratio [LR] chi-square test statistic and C-statistic [CS]). All risk scores were predictive of the outcome (EuroSCORE, HR: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.45 to 2.48], LR chi-square test statistic 19.29, C-statistic 0.67; STS score, HR: 1.51 [95% CI: 1.21 to 1.88], LR chi-square test statistic 11.05, C-statistic 0.64; frailty index, HR: 3.29 [95% CI: 1.98 to 5.47], LR chi-square test statistic 22.28, C-statistic 0.66). A combination of the frailty index with either EuroSCORE (LR chi-square test statistic 38.27, C-statistic 0.72) or STS score (LR chi-square test statistic 28.71, C-statistic 0.68) improved mortality prediction. The frailty index accounted for 58.2% and 77.6% of the predictive information in the combined model with EuroSCORE and STS score, respectively. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement confirmed that the added frailty index improved risk prediction. This is the first study showing that the assessment of frailty significantly enhances prediction of 1-year mortality after TAVR in combined risk models with conventional risk scores and relevantly contributes to this improvement. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation

  1. Genetic Risk Score Modelling for Disease Progression in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brorsson, Caroline A; Nielsen, Lotte B; Andersen, Marie-Louise


    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 40 type 1 diabetes risk loci. The clinical impact of these loci on β-cell function during disease progression is unknown. We aimed at testing whether a genetic risk score could predict glycemic control and residual β-cell function in type...... 1 diabetes (T1D). As gene expression may represent an intermediate phenotype between genetic variation and disease, we hypothesized that genes within T1D loci which are expressed in islets and transcriptionally regulated by proinflammatory cytokines would be the best predictors of disease...... constructed a genetic risk score based on the cumulative number of risk alleles carried in children with newly diagnosed T1D. With each additional risk allele carried, HbA1c levels increased significantly within first year after diagnosis. Network and gene ontology (GO) analyses revealed that several...

  2. The clinical performance of an office-based risk scoring system for fatal cardiovascular diseases in North-East of Iran.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadaf G Sepanlou

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases (CVD are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran.The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed.A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787 in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791 in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779 in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815. The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed.The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD.

  3. Comparison of Risk Scores for Prediction of Complications following Aortic Valve Replacement. (United States)

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David Hyun-Min; Haydock, David; Gamble, Greg; Stewart, Ralph; Ruygrok, Peter


    Risk models play an important role in stratification of patients for cardiac surgery, but their prognostic utilities for post-operative complications are rarely studied. We compared the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Score and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR Score) for predicting morbidities after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and also evaluated seven STS complications models in this context. We retrospectively calculated risk scores for 620 consecutive patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital during 2005-2012, assessing their discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Amongst mortality scores, the EuroSCORE was the best at discriminating stroke (c-statistic 0.845); the EuroSCORE II at deep sternal wound infection (c=0.748); and the STS Score at composite morbidity or mortality (c=0.666), renal failure (c=0.634), ventilation>24 hours (c=0.732), return to theatre (c=0.577) and prolonged hospital stay >14 days post-operatively (c=0.707). The individual STS complications models had a marginally higher c-statistic (c=0.634-0.846) for all complications except mediastinitis, and had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value 0.123-0.915) for all complications. The STS Score was best overall at discriminating post-operative complications and their composite for AVR. All STS complications models except for deep sternal wound infection had good discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Validation of the EBMT risk score in chronic myeloid leukemia in Brazil and allogeneic transplant outcome. (United States)

    De Souza, Carmino Antonio; Vigorito, Afonso Celso; Ruiz, Milton Artur; Nucci, Márcio; Dulley, Frederico Luiz; Funcke, Vaneusa; Tabak, Daniel; Azevedo, Alexandre Mello; Byington, Rita; Macedo, Maria Cristina; Saboya, Rosaura; Penteado Aranha, Francisco José; Oliveira, Gislaine Barbosa; Zulli, Roberto; Martins Miranda, Eliana Cristina; Azevedo, Wellington Moraes; Lodi, Fernanda Maria; Voltarelli, Júlio Cesar; Simões, Belinda Pinto; Colturato, Vergílio; De Souza, Mair Pedro; Silla, Lúcia; Bittencourt, Henrique; Piron-Ruiz, Lilian; Maiolino, Angelo; Gratwohl, Alois; Pasquini, Ricardo


    The management of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has changed radically since the introduction of imatinib therapy. The decision of whether to offer a patient a hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) must be based on the probability of success of the procedure. The aim of this retrospective analysis of 1,084 CML patients who received an allogeneic HSCT in 10 Brazilian Centers between February 1983 and March 2003 was to validate the EBMT risk score. The study population comprised 647 (60%) males and 437 (40%) females, with a median age of 32 years old (range 1 - 59); 898 (83%) were in chronic phase, 146 (13%) were in accelerated phase and 40 (4%) were in blast crisis; 151 (14%) were younger than 20 years old, 620 (57%) were between 20 and 40 and 313 (29%) were older than 40; 1,025 (94%) received an HLA fully matched sibling transplant and only 59 (6%) received an unrelated transplant. In 283 cases (26%) a male recipient received a graft from a female donor. The interval from diagnosis to transplantation was less than 12 months in 223 (21%) cases and greater in 861 (79%). The overall survival, disease-free survival, transplant-related mortality and relapse incidence were 49%, 50%, 45% and 25%, respectively. Of the 1084 patients, 179 (17%) had a risk score of 0 or 1, 397 (37%) had a score of 2, 345 (32%) had a score of 3, 135 (12%) had a score of 4 and 28 (2%) a score of 5 or 6. The overall survival (OS) rate in patients with risk scores 0-1 and 2 was similar (58% and 55%, respectively) but significantly better than that in patients with scores 3 or more (score 3 - 44%, 4 - 36 % and 5-6 - 27%, respectively) pp<0.001). Disease-free survival (DFS) and transplant related mortality (TRM) in a patients with a score of 3 or more were 46% and 49%, respectively and the relapse rate beyond score 5-6 was 77%. Disease status had a negative impact on all outcomes (OS, DFS, TRM, and relapse). The OS rate for male recipients of a graft from a female donor was 40% compared to 52

  5. External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (United States)

    Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram


    The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; pbleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

  6. Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes. (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin


    Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

  7. Where to Sit? Type of Sitting Matters for the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katja Borodulin


    Full Text Available Background: Current evidence on associations of type-specific sedentary behavior with cardiovascular disease (CVD is limited to mainly screen-time sedentary behavior (SB. We aimed to study the associations of type-specific and total time spent sitting with the Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease risk score (Framingham score in Finnish adults. Methods: Data comprise the National FINRISK 2007 and 2012 health examination surveys with 10,185 participants aged 25-74 years, apparently free of CVD. Participants reported average daily time spent sitting in different locations: work-related sitting, at home in front of television (TV, at home in front of computer, in a vehicle, and elsewhere. Total SB time was calculated from these context-specific self-reports. Accelerometer-based sedentary time was assessed in 988 FINRISK 2012 participants. Framingham score was calculated using information on blood pressure and its medication, cholesterol levels, age, diabetes status, and smoking. Analyses were adjusted for age, study year, education, employment status, leisure time physical activity, and body mass index. Results: Out of several type-specific sitting behaviors, only TV sitting showed systematic associations with the Framingham score in both genders. The lowest Framingham risk was found for TV sitting from 6 minutes to less than 1 hour daily. Of other types of sitting, computer sitting was inversely associated with the Framingham risk in men only. Total self-reported sitting time did not show significant associations with the Framingham score, but instead higher objectively assessed sedentary time showed higher Framingham risk in men. Conclusions: TV sitting showed most systematic associations with CVD risk score. This suggests that of all types of SB, reducing TV sitting should be targeted for reducing CVD risk.

  8. Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults. (United States)

    Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D


    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Physical activity, stress, and metabolic risk score in 8- to 18-year-old boys. (United States)

    Holmes, Megan E; Eisenmann, Joey C; Ekkekakis, Panteleimon; Gentile, Douglas


    We examined whether physical activity modifies the relationship between stress and the metabolic risk score in 8- to 18-year-old males (n = 37). Physical activity (PA) and television (TV)/videogame (VG) use were assessed via accelerometer and questionnaire, respectively. Stress was determined from self-report measures. A metabolic risk score (MRS) was created by summing age-standardized residuals for waist circumference, mean arterial pressure, glycosylated hemoglobin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Correlations between PA and MRS were low (r adolescents.

  10. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection


    A Dehghani; M zahedi; M moezzi; M dafei; H Falahzadeh


    Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective ...

  11. Some new results on correlation-preserving factor scores prediction methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Berge, J.M.F.; Krijnen, W.P.; Wansbeek, T.J.; Shapiro, A.


    Anderson and Rubin and McDonald have proposed a correlation-preserving method of factor scores prediction which minimizes the trace of a residual covariance matrix for variables. Green has proposed a correlation-preserving method which minimizes the trace of a residual covariance matrix for factors.

  12. 75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score... (United States)


    ... Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score Requirements AGENCY... acceptable risks of financial loss, not unacceptable risks.\\2\\ \\2\\ While the Federal Credit Reform Act of..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

  13. Prognostic factors and a survival score for patients with metastatic spinal cord compression from colorectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rades, D.; Douglas, S.; Huttenlocher, S. [Luebeck Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Veninga, T. [Dr. Bernard Verbeeten Institute, Tilburg (Netherlands). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Bajrovic, A. [University Medical Center Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Rudat, V. [Saad Specialist Hospital Al-Khobar (Saudi Arabia). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Schild, S.E. [Mayo Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ (United States). Dept. of Radiation Oncology


    Background: This study aimed to identify independent prognostic factors and to create a survival score for patients with metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) from colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients and methods: Data from 121 patients irradiated for MSCC from CRC were retrospectively analyzed. Eleven potential prognostic factors were investigated including tumor type, age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score (ECOG-PS), number of involved vertebrae, ambulatory status prior to radiotherapy (RT), other bone metastases, visceral metastases, interval from cancer diagnosis to RT of MSCC, time of developing motor deficits prior to RT, and the RT schedule. Results: On multivariate analysis, improved motor function was significantly associated with an ECOG-PS of 1-2 (p = 0.011) and a slower development of motor deficits (p < 0.001). Improved local control was significantly associated with absence of visceral metastases (p = 0.043) and longer-course RT (p = 0.008). Improved survival was significantly associated with an ECOG-PS of 1-2 (p < 0.001), ambulatory status (p < 0.001), absence of visceral metastases (p < 0.001), and a slower development of motor deficits (p = 0.047). These four prognostic factors were included in a survival score. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month survival rate by 10. The prognostic score represented the sum of the factor scores. Four prognostic groups were designed; the 6-month survival rates were 0% for 8-12 points, 26% for 13-18 points, 62% for 20-23 points, and 100% for 24-27 points (p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study identified several independent prognostic factors for treatment outcomes in patients irradiated for MSCC from CRC. The survival prognosis of these patients can be estimated with a new score. (orig.)

  14. Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease: Implications for Memory Performance and Hippocampal Volumes in Early Life. (United States)

    Axelrud, Luiza K; Santoro, Marcos L; Pine, Daniel S; Talarico, Fernanda; Gadelha, Ary; Manfro, Gisele G; Pan, Pedro M; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Brietzke, Elisa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Rohde, Luis A; Hakonarson, Hakon; Pausova, Zdenka; Belangero, Sintia; Paus, Tomas; Salum, Giovanni A


    Alzheimer's disease is a heritable neurodegenerative disorder in which early-life precursors may manifest in cognition and brain structure. The authors evaluate this possibility by examining, in youths, associations among polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease, cognitive abilities, and hippocampal volume. Participants were children 6-14 years of age in two Brazilian cities, constituting the discovery (N=364) and replication samples (N=352). As an additional replication, data from a Canadian sample (N=1,029), with distinct tasks, MRI protocol, and genetic risk, were included. Cognitive tests quantified memory and executive function. Reading and writing abilities were assessed by standardized tests. Hippocampal volumes were derived from the Multiple Automatically Generated Templates (MAGeT) multi-atlas segmentation brain algorithm. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease was quantified using summary statistics from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project. Analyses showed that for the Brazilian discovery sample, each one-unit increase in z-score for Alzheimer's polygenic risk score significantly predicted a 0.185 decrement in z-score for immediate recall and a 0.282 decrement for delayed recall. Findings were similar for the Brazilian replication sample (immediate and delayed recall, β=-0.259 and β=-0.232, both significant). Quantile regressions showed lower hippocampal volumes bilaterally for individuals with high polygenic risk scores. Associations fell short of significance for the Canadian sample. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease may affect early-life cognition and hippocampal volumes, as shown in two independent samples. These data support previous evidence that some forms of late-life dementia may represent developmental conditions with roots in childhood. This result may vary depending on a sample's genetic risk and may be specific to some types of memory tasks.

  15. Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population. (United States)

    Chan, Mark Y; Shah, Bimal R; Gao, Fei; Sim, Ling Ling; Chua, Terrance; Tan, Huay Cheem; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Ong, Hean Yee; Foo, David; Goh, Ping Ping; Surrun, Soondal K; Pieper, Karen S; Granger, Christopher B; Koh, Tian Hai; Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong


    Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty. (United States)

    Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D


    Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P 3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafizadeh, Tracy B; Moler, Edward J; Kolberg, Janice A


    developed diabetes risk score, PreDxH Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged......Background: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously...... 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity...

  18. [Clinical scores for the risk of recurrent VTED and for the relationship cancer-VTED]. (United States)

    Junod, Alain


    Clinical scores related to the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolic disease (VTED), to the relationship between cancer and VTED (risk of development of VTED, risk of recurrent VTED, prognosis of pulmonary embolism) and to the risk of cancer following VTED are analysed and commented upon. Although they most often rely on appropriate methodology and are often based on a large number of subjects, they unfortunately provide information that is not necessarily useful for the care of patients. Their use should be considered only when positive impact studies are published.

  19. Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart S Ferket

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

  20. Predictive Value of Updating Framingham Risk Scores with Novel Risk Markers in the U.S. General Population (United States)

    Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Agarwal, Isha; Kavousi, Maryam; Franco, Oscar H.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Max, Wendy; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.


    Background According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02–0.19). The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01–0.03) with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38%) moved to low and 22% (30%) to high CVD (CHD) risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. Conclusions Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies. PMID:24558385

  1. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael


    baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1). The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6-1.0), 5.6 (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 37.4 (95% CI 34.......0-40.7) (Figure 1). The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The number needed to harm (NNTH) in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium...

  2. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG


    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  3. Quantifying Cardiometabolic Risk Using Modifiable Non–Self-Reported Risk Factors (United States)

    Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Buxton, Orfeu M.


    Background Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. Purpose To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non–self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut off points for risk categories. Methods We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14–year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender–specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non–self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high–density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10–year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012–2013. Results HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit χ2=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). Conclusions This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk based on modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual’s commitment to prevention and intervention. PMID:24951039

  4. Quantifying cardiometabolic risk using modifiable non-self-reported risk factors. (United States)

    Marino, Miguel; Li, Yi; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Berkman, Lisa F; Buxton, Orfeu M


    Sensitive general cardiometabolic risk assessment tools of modifiable risk factors would be helpful and practical in a range of primary prevention interventions or for preventive health maintenance. To develop and validate a cumulative general cardiometabolic risk score that focuses on non-self-reported modifiable risk factors such as glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and BMI so as to be sensitive to small changes across a span of major modifiable risk factors, which may not individually cross clinical cut-off points for risk categories. We prospectively followed 2,359 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free subjects from the Framingham offspring cohort over a 14-year follow-up. Baseline (fifth offspring examination cycle) included HbA1c and cholesterol measurements. Gender-specific Cox proportional hazards models were considered to evaluate the effects of non-self-reported modifiable risk factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, BMI, and HbA1c) on general CVD risk. We constructed 10-year general cardiometabolic risk score functions and evaluated its predictive performance in 2012-2013. HbA1c was significantly related to general CVD risk. The proposed cardiometabolic general CVD risk model showed good predictive performance as determined by cross-validated discrimination (male C-index=0.703, 95% CI=0.668, 0.734; female C-index=0.762, 95% CI=0.726, 0.801) and calibration (lack-of-fit chi-square=9.05 [p=0.338] and 12.54 [p=0.128] for men and women, respectively). This study presents a risk factor algorithm that provides a convenient and informative way to quantify cardiometabolic risk on the basis of modifiable risk factors that can motivate an individual's commitment to prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort. (United States)

    Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A


    To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

  6. Comparison of accuracy of diabetes risk score and components of the metabolic syndrome in assessing risk of incident type 2 diabetes in Inter99 cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy B Shafizadeh

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS. DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30-60 for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0-2, 3 or 4-5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI. Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008 demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention.

  7. Dementia knowledge assessment scale (DKAS): confirmatory factor analysis and comparative subscale scores among an international cohort. (United States)

    Annear, Michael J; Toye, Chris; Elliott, Kate-Ellen J; McInerney, Frances; Eccleston, Claire; Robinson, Andrew


    Dementia is a life-limiting condition that is increasing in global prevalence in line with population ageing. In this context, it is necessary to accurately measure dementia knowledge across a spectrum of health professional and lay populations with the aim of informing targeted educational interventions and improving literacy, care, and support. Building on prior exploratory analysis, which informed the development of the preliminarily valid and reliable version of the Dementia Knowledge Assessment Scale (DKAS), a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was performed to affirm construct validity and proposed subscales to further increase the measure's utility for academics and educators. A large, de novo sample of 3649 volunteer respondents to a dementia-related online course was recruited to evaluate the performance of the DKAS and its proposed subscales. Respondents represented diverse cohorts, including health professionals, students, and members of the general public. Analyses included CFA (using structural equation modelling), measures of internal consistency (α), and non-parametric tests of subscale correlation (Spearman Correlation) and score differences between cohorts (Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance). Findings of the CFA supported a 25-item, four-factor model for the DKAS with two items removed due to poor performance and one item moved between factors. The resultant model exhibited good reliability (α = .85; ω h  = .87; overall scale), with acceptable subscale internal consistency (α ≥ .65; subscales). Subscales showed acceptable correlation without any indication of redundancy. Finally, total and DKAS subscale scores showed good discrimination between cohorts of respondents who would be anticipated to hold different levels of knowledge on the basis of education or experience related to dementia. The DKAS has been confirmed as a reliable and valid measure of dementia knowledge for diverse populations that is capable of elucidating

  8. Risk factors for renal dysfunction after total hip joint replacement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hassan, Basim Kamil; Sahlström, Arne; Dessau, Ram Benny Christian


    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Renal injury and dysfunction are serious complications after major surgery, which may lead to increased morbidity and mortality. The objective of our study was to identify the possible risk factors for renal dysfunction after total hip joint replacement surger...... creatinine. Smoking, diabetes mellitus, high BMI, gender, and duration of surgery were not identified as significant risk factors........ METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among 599 consecutive primary hip joint replacements performed between January 2011 and December 2013. According to the RIFLE criteria, increased postoperative serum creatinine was considered indicative of postoperative renal injury. The Welch two-sample test......, hypertension, general anesthesia, high ASA scores, low intra-operative systolic BP, and prophylactic dicloxacillin as significant risk factors. Low baseline systolic BP, low baseline diastolic blood pressure, and hip fracture diagnosis were independent risk factors for postoperative increase in serum...

  9. Risk Factors of Dystocia in Nulliparous Women (United States)

    Alijahan, Rahele; Kordi, Masoumeh


    Background: Detection of women at risk for dystocia will allow physicians to make preparations and treatment decisions that can minimize maternal and neonatal morbidity. We aimed to determine the risk factors for dystocia in nulliparous women. Methods: This case series enrolled 447 nulliparous women who presented with a single pregnancy in the vertex presentation and gestational age of 38-42 weeks. Maternal anthropometric measurements were obtained upon admission. We defined dystocia as a cesarean section or vacuum delivery for abnormal progression of labor as evidenced by the presence of effective uterine contractions, cervical dilation of less than 1 cm/h in the active phase for 2 h, duration of the second stage beyond 2 h, or fetal head descent less than 1 cm/h. Data were analyzed by SPSS software version 11.5. Kruskal-Wallis, logistic regression, chi-square, Student’s t test and the Mann-Whitney tests were used as appropriated. Results: The state anxiety score (OR=10.58, CI: 1.97-56.0), posterior head position (OR=9.53, CI: 4.68-19.36), fetal head swelling in the second stage of labor (OR=6.85, CI: 2.60-18.01), transverse diagonal of Michaelis sacral ≤9.6 cm (OR=6.19, CI: 2.49-15.40), and height to fundal ratio dystocia. Conclusion: Critical care during labor and delivery in women who have a height to fundal height ratio of dystocia. PMID:24850982

  10. Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection among medical students and healthcare workers in Johannesburg, South Africa. A van Rie, K McCarthy, L Scott, A Dow, WDF Venter, WS Stevens ...

  11. Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function. (United States)

    Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S


    We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

  12. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  13. Menopause as risk factor for oxidative stress. (United States)

    Sánchez-Rodríguez, Martha A; Zacarías-Flores, Mariano; Arronte-Rosales, Alicia; Correa-Muñoz, Elsa; Mendoza-Núñez, Víctor Manuel


    The aim of this study was to determine the influence of menopause (hypoestrogenism) as a risk factor for oxidative stress. We carried out a cross-sectional study with 187 perimenopausal women from Mexico City, including 94 premenopausal (mean ± SD age, 44.9 ± 4.0 y; estrogen, 95.8 ± 65.7 pg/mL; follicle-stimulating hormone, 13.6 ± 16.9 mIU/mL) and 93 postmenopausal (mean ± SD age, 52.5 ± 3.3 y; estrogen, 12.8 ± 6.8 pg/mL; follicle-stimulating hormone, 51.4 ± 26.9 mIU/mL) women. We measured lipoperoxides using a thiobarbituric acid-reacting substance assay, erythrocyte superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase activities, and the total antioxidant status with the Randox kit. An alternative cutoff value for lipoperoxide level of 0.320 μmol/L or higher was defined on the basis of the 90th percentile of young healthy participants. All women answered the Menopause Rating Scale, the Athens Insomnia Scale, and a structured questionnaire about pro-oxidant factors, that is, smoking, consumption of caffeinated and alcoholic beverages, and physical activity. Finally, we measured weight and height and calculated body mass index. The lipoperoxide levels were significantly higher in the postmenopausal group than in the premenopausal group (0.357 ± 0.05 vs 0.331 ± 0.05 μmol/L, P = 0.001). Using logistic regression to control pro-oxidant variables, we found that menopause was the main risk factor for oxidative stress (odds ratio, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.35-5.11; P menopause rating score, insomnia score, and lipoperoxides, and this relationship was most evident in the postmenopausal group (menopause scale, r = 0.327 [P = 0.001]; insomnia scale, r = 0.209 [P < 0.05]). Our findings suggest that the depletion of estrogen in postmenopause could cause oxidative stress in addition to the known symptoms.

  14. Genetic risk scores and number of autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maehlen, Marthe T.; Olsen, Inge C.; Andreassen, Bettina K.; Viken, Marte K.; Jiang, Xia; Alfredsson, Lars; Kallberg, Henrik; Brynedal, Boel; Kurreeman, Fina; Daha, Nina; Toes, Rene; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; de Bakker, Paul I. W.; Martin, Javier; Teruel, Maria; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A.; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; Uhlig, Till; Kvien, Tore K.; Lie, Benedicte A.

    Objective Certain HLA-DRB1 alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to examine the combined effect of these associated variants, calculated as a cumulative genetic risk score (GRS) on RA predisposition, as well as the number

  15. Genetic risk scores and number of autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maehlen, Marthe T; Olsen, Inge C; Andreassen, Bettina K; Viken, Marte K; Jiang, Xia; Alfredsson, Lars; Källberg, Henrik; Brynedal, Boel; Kurreeman, Fina; Daha, Nina; Toes, Rene; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; de Bakker, Paul I W; Martin, Javier; Teruel, María; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; Uhlig, Till; Kvien, Tore K; Lie, Benedicte A

    OBJECTIVE: Certain HLA-DRB1 alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to examine the combined effect of these associated variants, calculated as a cumulative genetic risk score (GRS) on RA predisposition, as well as the number

  16. Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin


    BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate ca...

  17. Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers. (United States)

    Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M


    A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:6585139

  18. The Impact of SIM on FCAT Reading Scores of Special Education and At-Risk Students (United States)

    Matyo-Cepero, Jude


    The purpose of this study was to determine if special education and at-risk students educated exclusively in a school-within-a-school setting showed improved high-stakes standardized reading test scores after learning the strategic instruction model (SIM) inference strategy. This study was focused on four groups of eighth-grade students attending…

  19. Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Zhang, X.


    We present a simple methodology for modeling the time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme that is similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. The parameters are updated using the score of the forecasting distribution, which allows the

  20. Arterial lactate does not predict outcome better than existing risk scores in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stokbro, Line Aabel; Schaffalitzky de Muckadell, Ove B; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg


    OBJECTIVE: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a frequent medical emergency and several scoring systems are developed to help risk-stratify patients. We aimed to investigate if elevated arterial lactate (AL) was associated with 30-day mortality, need for hospital-based intervention...

  1. The role of self-esteem and gender in pen scores and risk-taking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The role of self-esteem and gender in pen scores and risk-taking behaviour of learners in a South African school. ... RTB to some extent but not on the moderation effects of self-esteem (SE) and gender on RTB ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  2. Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ha Young Kim

    Full Text Available Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model.A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50-90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS.During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk.We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at

  3. Change in Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revised (LSI-OR) Risk Scores Over Time: An Examination of Overall Growth Curves and Subscale-Dependent Growth Curves. (United States)

    Day, David M; Wilson, Holly A; Bodwin, Kelly; Monson, Candice M


    The dynamic nature of risk to re-offend is an important issue in the management of offenders and has stimulated extensive research into dynamic risk factors that can alter an individual's overall risk to re-offend if addressed. However, few studies have examined the relative importance of these dynamic risk factors, complicating the task of developing case management and treatment plans that will effect the most change. Using a large, high-risk sample and multi-wave data of a common risk assessment tool, the Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revised (LSI-OR), the current study investigated the relationship among criminogenic risk factors and their role in influencing the overall risk score. Results indicated a diverse pattern of effects on the eight subscale scores, specifically suggesting that changes on Procriminal Attitude/Orientation, Criminal History, and Leisure/Recreation subscales resulted in a quicker rate of change to the overall risk score over time. These results suggest that some factors may be driving the change in overall risk and could potentially effect the most change if prioritized for intervention. Practical implications and implications for further research are discussed.

  4. Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese


    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the biggest causes of death worldwide. In most people, CVD is the product of a number of causal risk factors. Several seemingly modest risk factors may, in combination, result in a much higher risk than an impressively raised single factor. For this reason, risk estimation systems have been developed to assist clinicians to assess the effects of risk factor combinations in planning management strategies. In this article, the performances of the major risk estimation systems are reviewed. Most perform usably well in populations that are similar to the one used to derive the system, and in other populations if calibrated to allow for different CVD mortality rates and different risk factor distributions. The effect of adding "new" risk factors to age, sex, smoking, lipid status, and blood pressure is usually small, but may help to appropriately reclassify some of those patients who are close to a treatment threshold to a more correct "treat\\/do not treat" category. Risk estimation in the young and old needs more research. Quantification of the hoped-for benefits of the multiple risk estimation approach in terms of improved outcomes is still needed. But, it is likely that the widespread use of such an approach will help to address the issues of both undertreatment and overtreatment.

  5. Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors. (United States)

    Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J


    Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

  6. Cardiovascular risk factors in children. (United States)

    Fraporti, Marisete Inês; Scherer Adami, Fernanda; Dutra Rosolen, Michele


    Systemic hypertension is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Early diagnosis and treatment of hypertension in childhood can potentially have a significant impact on future adverse outcomes. To investigate the relationship of diastolic (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) with anthropometric data and area of residence of children in municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study of 709 children between six and nine years of age. Blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were measured. Statistical tests had a maximum significance level of 5% (p≤0.05) and the software used was SPSS version 13.0. Obesity was significantly associated with pre-hypertension, and stage 1 and 2 hypertension as assessed by DBP and SBP (≤0.05); high WC was significantly associated with a classification of pre-hypertension and stage 1 hypertension based on DBP and a classification of stage 1 and 2 hypertension based on SBP (≤0.01). Children living in urban areas had significantly higher mean SBP than those living in rural areas. Those with high WC presented higher SBP and DBP compared to children with normal WC. Obese children showed higher mean SBP and DBP compared to those who were overweight or normal weight and mean SBP and DBP also increased with older age and higher mean body mass index and WC. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Calcium scores in the risk assessment of an asymptomatic population: implications for airline pilots. (United States)

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D


    This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.

  8. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  9. Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians. (United States)

    Arends, Pauline; Sonneveld, Milan J; Zoutendijk, Roeland; Carey, Ivana; Brown, Ashley; Fasano, Massimo; Mutimer, David; Deterding, Katja; Reijnders, Jurriën G P; Oo, Ye; Petersen, Jörg; van Bömmel, Florian; de Knegt, Robert J; Santantonio, Teresa; Berg, Thomas; Welzel, Tania M; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Buti, Maria; Pradat, Pierre; Zoulim, Fabien; Hansen, Bettina; Janssen, Harry L A


    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population. We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network. A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82-212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (peliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  10. Factors affecting the student evaluation of teaching scores: evidence from panel data estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo de Carvalho Andrade


    Full Text Available We use a random-effects model to find the factors that affect the student evaluation of teaching (SET scores. Dataset covers 6 semesters, 496 undergraduate courses related to 101 instructors and 89 disciplines. Our empirical findings are: (i the class size affects negatively the SET score; (ii instructors with more experience are better evaluated, but these gains reduce over time; (iii participating in training programs, designed to improve the quality of teaching, did not increase the SET scores; (iv instructors seem to be able to marginally 'buy' a better evaluation by inflating students' grade. Finally, there are significant changes in the rankings when we adjust the SET score to eliminate the effects of variables beyond instructors' control. Despite these changes, they are not statistically significant.

  11. Post-bronchoscopy pneumonia in patients suffering from lung cancer: Development and validation of a risk prediction score. (United States)

    Takiguchi, Hiroto; Hayama, Naoki; Oguma, Tsuyoshi; Harada, Kazuki; Sato, Masako; Horio, Yukihiro; Tanaka, Jun; Tomomatsu, Hiromi; Tomomatsu, Katsuyoshi; Takihara, Takahisa; Niimi, Kyoko; Nakagawa, Tomoki; Masuda, Ryota; Aoki, Takuya; Urano, Tetsuya; Iwazaki, Masayuki; Asano, Koichiro


    The incidence, risk factors, and consequences of pneumonia after flexible bronchoscopy in patients with lung cancer have not been studied in detail. We retrospectively analyzed the data from 237 patients with lung cancer who underwent diagnostic bronchoscopy between April 2012 and July 2013 (derivation sample) and 241 patients diagnosed between August 2013 and July 2014 (validation sample) in a tertiary referral hospital in Japan. A score predictive of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia was developed in the derivation sample and tested in the validation sample. Pneumonia developed after bronchoscopy in 6.3% and 4.1% of patients in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Patients who developed post-bronchoscopy pneumonia needed to change or cancel their planned cancer therapy more frequently than those without pneumonia (56% vs. 6%, ppneumonia, which we added to develop our predictive score. The incidence of pneumonia associated with scores=0, 1, and ≥2 was 0, 3.7, and 13.4% respectively in the derivation sample (p=0.003), and 0, 2.9, and 9.7% respectively in the validation sample (p=0.016). The incidence of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia in patients with lung cancer was not rare and associated with adverse effects on the clinical course. A simple 3-point predictive score identified patients with lung cancer at high risk of post-bronchoscopy pneumonia prior to the procedure. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Respiratory Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Development and validation of a bedside risk score for MRSA among patients hospitalized with complicated skin and skin structure infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zilberberg Marya D


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a frequent cause of complicated skin and skin structure infections (cSSSI. Patients with MRSA require different empiric treatment than those with non-MRSA infections, yet no accurate tools exist to aid in stratifying the risk for a MRSA cSSSI. We sought to develop a simple bedside decision rule to tailor empiric coverage more accurately. Methods We conducted a large multicenter (N=62 hospitals retrospective cohort study in a US-based database between April 2005 and March 2009. All adult initial admissions with ICD-9-CM codes specific to cSSSI were included. Patients admitted with MRSA vs. non-MRSA were compared with regard to baseline demographic, clinical and hospital characteristics. We developed and validated a model to predict the risk of MRSA, and compared its performance via sensitivity, specificity and other classification statistics to the healthcare-associated (HCA infection risk factors. Results Of the 7,183 patients with cSSSI, 2,387 (33.2% had MRSA. Factors discriminating MRSA from non-MRSA were age, African-American race, no evidence of diabetes mellitus, cancer or renal dysfunction, and prior history of cardiac dysrhythmia. The score ranging from 0 to 8 points exhibited a consistent dose–response relationship. A MRSA score of 5 or higher was superior to the HCA classification in all characteristics, while that of 4 or higher was superior on all metrics except specificity. Conclusions MRSA is present in 1/3 of all hospitalized cSSSI. A simple bedside risk score can help discriminate the risk for MRSA vs. other pathogens with improved accuracy compared to the HCA definition.

  13. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score predicts hospital charges and resource use after aortic valve replacement. (United States)

    Arnaoutakis, George J; George, Timothy J; Alejo, Diane E; Merlo, Christian A; Baumgartner, William A; Cameron, Duke E; Shah, Ashish S


    The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted mortality risk score on resource use has not been previously studied. We hypothesize that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk scores in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement are associated with greater hospital charges. Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing aortic valve replacement at The Johns Hopkins Hospital over a 10-year period (January 2000 to December 2009) were reviewed. The current Society of Thoracic Surgeons formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles, index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with rank-sum and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Linear regression and Spearman's coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. A total of 553 patients underwent aortic valve replacement during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for aortic valve replacement. Median charges were greater in the upper quartile of patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (quartiles 1-3, $39,949 [interquartile range, 32,708-51,323] vs quartile 4, $62,301 [interquartile range, 45,952-97,103], P < .01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient, 0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.07; P < .01). Spearman's correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score was associated with an added $3000 in hospital charges. This is the first study to show that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score predicts greater charges after aortic valve replacement. As competing therapies, such as percutaneous valve replacement, emerge to

  14. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score Predicts Hospital Charges and Resource Utilization After Aortic Valve Replacement (United States)

    Arnaoutakis, George J.; George, Timothy J.; Alejo, Diane E.; Merlo, Christian A.; Baumgartner, William A.; Cameron, Duke E.; Shah, Ashish S.


    Context The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted mortality risk score on resource utilization after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has not been previously studied. Objective We hypothesize that increasing STS risk scores in patients having AVR are associated with greater hospital charges. Design, Setting, and Patients Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing AVR at a tertiary care, university hospital over a ten-year period (1/2000–12/2009) were retrospectively reviewed. The current STS formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles (Q), index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with Rank-Sum tests. Linear regression and Spearman’s coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. Main Outcome Measures Inflation-adjusted index hospitalization total charges Results 553 patients had AVR during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for AVR. Median charges were greater in the upper Q of AVR patients [Q1–3,$39,949 (IQR32,708–51,323) vs Q4,$62,301 (IQR45,952–97,103), p=<0.01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between STS risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient: 0.06, 95%CI 0.05–0.07, p<0.01). Spearman’s correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in STS risk score was associated with an added $3,000 in hospital charges. Conclusions This study showed increasing STS risk score predicts greater charges after AVR. As competing therapies such as percutaneous valve replacement emerge to treat high risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource utilization. PMID:21497834

  15. Independent risk factors of morbidity in penetrating colon injuries. (United States)

    Girgin, Sadullah; Gedik, Ercan; Uysal, Ersin; Taçyildiz, Ibrahim Halil


    The present study explored the factors effective on colon-related morbidity in patients with penetrating injury of the colon. The medical records of 196 patients were reviewed for variables including age, gender, factor of trauma, time between injury and operation, shock, duration of operation, Penetrating Abdominal Trauma Index (PATI), Injury Severity Score (ISS), site of colon injury, Colon Injury Score, fecal contamination, number of associated intra- and extraabdominal organ injuries, units of transfused blood within the first 24 hours, and type of surgery. In order to determine the independent risk factors, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Gunshot wounds, interval between injury and operation > or =6 hours, shock, duration of the operation > or =6 hours, PATI > or =25, ISS > or =20, Colon Injury Score > or = grade 3, major fecal contamination, number of associated intraabdominal organ injuries >2, number of associated extraabdominal organ injuries >2, multiple blood transfusions, and diversion were significantly associated with morbidity. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed diversion and transfusion of > or =4 units in the first 24 hours as independent risk factors affecting colon-related morbidity. Diversion and transfusion of > or =4 units in the first 24 hours were determined to be independent risk factors for colon-related morbidity.

  16. The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain. (United States)

    Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun


    The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

  17. Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy De Backer


    Full Text Available Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%. Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk.

  18. Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey (United States)

    De Backer, Guy; Petrella, Robert J.; Goudev, Assen R.; Radaideh, Ghazi Ahmad; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej; Pathak, Atul


    Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER) survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT) for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men) and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD) systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%). Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a) effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b) the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk. PMID:23997946

  19. Prospective comparison of three risk scoring systems in non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (United States)

    Thanapirom, Kessarin; Ridtitid, Wiriyaporn; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Thungsuk, Rattikorn; Noophun, Phadet; Wongjitrat, Chatchawan; Luangjaru, Somchai; Vedkijkul, Padet; Lertkupinit, Comson; Poonsab, Swangphong; Ratanachu-ek, Thawee; Hansomburana, Piyathida; Pornthisarn, Bubpha; Thongbai, Thirada; Mahachai, Varocha; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat


    Data regarding the efficacy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (FRS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores (PRS) in comparing non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) are limited. Our aim was to determine the performance of these three risk scores in predicting the need for treatment, mortality, and re-bleeding among patients with non-variceal and variceal UGIB. During January, 2010 and September, 2011, patients with UGIB from 11 hospitals were prospectively enrolled. The GBS, FRS, and PRS were calculated. Discriminative ability for each score was assessed using the receiver operated characteristics curve (ROC) analysis. A total of 981 patients presented with acute UGIB, 225 patients (22.9%) had variceal UGIB. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of the GBS, FRS, and PRS for predicting the need for treatment were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61 in non-variceal versus 0.66, 0.66, and 0.59 in variceal UGIB. The AUC for predicting mortality and re-bleeding during admission were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76 in non-variceal versus 0.63, 0.57, and 0.63 in variceal UGIB. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting need for therapy and clinical outcome in variceal UGIB. The GBS ≤ 2 and FRS ≤ 1 identified low-risk non-variceal UGIB patients for death and re-bleeding during hospitalization. In contrast to non-variceal UGIB, the GBS, FRS, and PRS were not precise scores for assessing the need for therapy, mortality, and re-bleeding during admission in variceal UGIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  20. Risk factors for peptic ulcer in patients with acute pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIAO Juan


    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical characteristics of acute pancreatitis (AP associated with peptic ulcer (PU and to analyze the risk factors for PU in AP patients. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 156 AP patients who were admitted to our hospital from January 2008 to January 2012. All patients underwent gastroscopy within 48 h after admission to detect PU and Helicobacter pylori (Hp infection. The severity of AP was assessed by Ranson score, APACHE Ⅱ score, and CT severity index. The clinical characteristics of AP patients with or without PU were statistically analyzed using independent samples t-test and chi-square test. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for PU in AP patients. ResultsAmong the 156 AP patients, 88 (56.4% had PU, but only 28 (31.8% of the 88 cases were infected with Hp. Of the 28 patients, 22 had gastric ulcer, and 6 had both gastric ulcer and duodenal ulcer. Of the 60 PU patients not infected with Hp, 25 had gastric ulcer, 26 had duodenal ulcer, and 9 had both gastric ulcer and duodenal ulcer. The univariate logistic regression analysis showed that male gender, alcohol-induced pancreatitis, smoking, alcohol consumption, high triglyceride level, high C-reactive protein level, and APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 were significantly associated with PU in AP patients. However, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 was the independent risk factor for PU in AP patients (OR=8.54, 95% CI: 4.52-16.15, P<0.01. ConclusionAP patients are susceptible to PU, but the infection rate of Hp is low. APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 is the independent risk factor for PU in AP patients.

  1. A urinary biomarker-based risk score correlates with multiparametric MRI for prostate cancer detection. (United States)

    Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M


    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P < 0.01). The median SelectMDx score was significantly higher in patients with a suspicious significant lesion on mpMRI compared to no suspicion of significant PCa (P < 0.01). For the prediction of mpMRI outcome, the area-under-the-curve of SelectMDx was 0.83 compared to 0.66 for PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P < 0.01) and between PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk

  2. Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort. (United States)

    Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie


    Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis. (United States)

    Katagiri, Hirohisa; Okada, Rieko; Takagi, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Mitsuru; Murata, Hideki; Harada, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Asakura, Hirofumi; Ogawa, Hirofumi


    The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score. (United States)

    Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo


    The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

  5. New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K


    subjects with estimated risk below 5%. During the following 9.5 years the composite end point of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke (CEP) occurred in 204 subjects. CEP was predicted in all three groups by UACR (HRs: 2.1, 2.1 and 2.3 per 10-fold increase, all P...CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population....

  6. A Polygenic Risk Score of glutamatergic SNPs associated with schizophrenia predicts attentional behavior and related brain activity in healthy humans. (United States)

    Rampino, Antonio; Taurisano, Paolo; Fanelli, Giuseppe; Attrotto, Mariateresa; Torretta, Silvia; Antonucci, Linda Antonella; Miccolis, Grazia; Pergola, Giulio; Ursini, Gianluca; Maddalena, Giancarlo; Romano, Raffaella; Masellis, Rita; Di Carlo, Pasquale; Pignataro, Patrizia; Blasi, Giuseppe; Bertolino, Alessandro


    Multiple genetic variations impact on risk for schizophrenia. Recent analyses by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2) identified 128 SNPs genome-wide associated with the disorder. Furthermore, attention and working memory deficits are core features of schizophrenia, are heritable and have been associated with variation in glutamatergic neurotransmission. Based on this evidence, in a sample of healthy volunteers, we used SNPs associated with schizophrenia in PGC2 to construct a Polygenic-Risk-Score (PRS) reflecting the cumulative risk for schizophrenia, along with a Polygenic-Risk-Score including only SNPs related to genes implicated in glutamatergic signaling (Glu-PRS). We performed Factor Analysis for dimension reduction of indices of cognitive performance. Furthermore, both PRS and Glu-PRS were used as predictors of cognitive functioning in the domains of Attention, Speed of Processing and Working Memory. The association of the Glu-PRS on brain activity during the Variable Attention Control (VAC) task was also explored. Finally, in a second independent sample of healthy volunteers we sought to confirm the association between the Glu-PRS and both performance in the domain of Attention and brain activity during the VAC.We found that performance in Speed of Processing and Working Memory was not associated with any of the Polygenic-Risk-Scores. The Glu-PRS, but not the PRS was associated with Attention and brain activity during the VAC. The specific effects of Glu-PRS on Attention and brain activity during the VAC were also confirmed in the replication sample.Our results suggest a pathway specificity in the relationship between genetic risk for schizophrenia, the associated cognitive dysfunction and related brain processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  7. The Analysis of the Impact of Individual Weighting Factor on Individual Scores (United States)

    Kilic, Gulsen Bagci; Cakan, Mehtap


    In this study, category-based self and peer assessment were applied twice in a semester in an Elementary Science Teaching Methods course in order to assess individual contributions of group members to group projects as well as to analyze the impact of Individual Weighting Factors (IWF) on individual scores and individual grades. IWF were…

  8. Clinical Risk Scoring Models for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Hye Park

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a frequent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with increased mortality. We identified the incidence and modifiable risk factors for AKI after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT and constructed risk scoring models for AKI prediction. We retrospectively reviewed 538 cases of LDLT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for the prediction of AKI as defined by the RIFLE criteria (RIFLE = risk, injury, failure, loss, end stage. Three risk scoring models were developed in the retrospective cohort by including all variables that were significant in univariate analysis, or variables that were significant in multivariate analysis by backward or forward stepwise variable selection. The risk models were validated by way of cross-validation. The incidence of AKI was 27.3% (147/538 and 6.3% (34/538 required postoperative renal replacement therapy. Independent risk factors for AKI by multivariate analysis of forward stepwise variable selection included: body-mass index >27.5 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.32-4.55], serum albumin 20 (OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.17-3.44, operation time >600 min (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.07-3.06, warm ischemic time >40 min (OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, postreperfusion syndrome (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, mean blood glucose during the day of surgery >150 mg/dl (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.01-2.70, cryoprecipitate > 6 units (OR 4.96, 95%CI 2.84-8.64, blood loss/body weight >60 ml/kg (OR 4.05, 95%CI 2.28-7.21, and calcineurin inhibitor use without combined mycophenolate mofetil (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.06. Our risk models performed better than did a previously reported score by Utsumi et al. in our study cohort. Doses of calcineurin inhibitor should be reduced by combined use of mycophenolate mofetil to decrease postoperative AKI. Prospective randomized trials are required to address whether artificial modification of hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia

  9. Aggregate risk score based on markers of inflammation, cell stress, and coagulation is an independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. (United States)

    Eapen, Danny J; Manocha, Pankaj; Patel, Riyaz S; Hammadah, Muhammad; Veledar, Emir; Wassel, Christina; Nanjundappa, Ravi A; Sikora, Sergey; Malayter, Dylan; Wilson, Peter W F; Sperling, Laurence; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Epstein, Stephen E


    This study sought to determine an aggregate, pathway-specific risk score for enhanced prediction of death and myocardial infarction (MI). Activation of inflammatory, coagulation, and cellular stress pathways contribute to atherosclerotic plaque rupture. We hypothesized that an aggregate risk score comprised of biomarkers involved in these different pathways-high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrin degradation products (FDP), and heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) levels-would be a powerful predictor of death and MI. Serum levels of CRP, FDP, and HSP70 were measured in 3,415 consecutive patients with suspected or confirmed coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac catheterization. Survival analyses were performed with models adjusted for established risk factors. Median follow-up was 2.3 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause death and MI based on cutpoints were as follows: CRP ≥3.0 mg/l, HR: 1.61; HSP70 >0.625 ng/ml, HR; 2.26; and FDP ≥1.0 μg/ml, HR: 1.62 (p statistic and net reclassification improved (p < 0.0001) with the addition of the biomarker score. An aggregate score based on serum levels of CRP, FDP, and HSP70 is a predictor of future risk of death and MI in patients with suspected or known CAD. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Ergonomic, psychosocial factors and risks at work in informal mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milena Nunes Alves de Sousa


    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to identify ergonomic and psychosocial factors, and risks at informal work in the mining sector of the State of Paraíba, Brazil, from miners' perspective. A cross-sectional and descriptive study was conducted with 371 informal mining workers. They responded two questionnaires for assessing work performed in three dimensions: ergonomic factors; psychosocial factors; and occupational risks. The scores of the items of each dimension were added so that, the higher the score, the lower workers' satisfaction related to the area investigated. The results indicated that noise was common in the working environment (66%. Most workers (54.7% pointed out that the work was too hard and that it required attention and reasoning (85.7%. The workers emphasized the lack of training for working in mining (59.3% and few of them regarded the maintenance of the workplace as a component to prevent lumbago (32.3%. Risk of accidents was pointed out as the factor that needed increased attention in daily work (56.6%. All occupational risks were mentioned, including physical and chemical risks. There was significant correlation between age and occupational risks, indicating that the greater the age, the greater the perception of harmful agents (ρ = -0.23; p < 0.01. In the end, it was observed that, to a greater or lesser degree, all workers perceived ergonomic and psychosocial factors, and risks in informal mining. Length of service and age were the features that interfered significantly with the understanding of those factors and occupational risks.

  11. Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales. (United States)

    Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H


    Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Development and validation of a risk score to assist screening for acute HIV-1 infection among men who have sex with men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maartje Dijkstra


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early treatment of acute HIV-1 infection (AHI is beneficial for patients and could reduce onward transmission. However, guidelines on whom to test for AHI with HIV-1 RNA testing are lacking. Methods A risk score for possible AHI based on literature and expert opinion – including symptoms associated with AHI and early HIV-1 – was evaluated using data from the Amsterdam Cohort Studies among men who have sex with men (MSM. Subsequently, we optimized the risk score by constructing two multivariable logistic regression models: one including only symptoms and one combining symptoms with known risk factors for HIV-1 seroconversion, using generalized estimating equations. Several risk scores were generated from these models and the optimal risk score was validated using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Results Using data from 1562 MSM with 175 HIV-1 seroconversion visits and 17,271 seronegative visits in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies, the optimal risk score included four symptoms (oral thrush, fever, lymphadenopathy, weight loss and three risk factors (self-reported gonorrhea, receptive condomless anal intercourse, more than five sexual partners, all in the preceding six months and yielded an AUC of 0.82. Sensitivity was 76.3% and specificity 76.3%. Validation in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study resulted in an AUC of 0.78, sensitivity of 56.2% and specificity of 88.8%. Conclusions The optimal risk score had good overall performance in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies and performed comparable (but showed lower sensitivity in the validation study. Screening for AHI with four symptoms and three risk factors would increase the efficiency of AHI testing and potentially enhance early diagnosis and immediate treatment.

  13. Polygenic Scores for Major Depressive Disorder and Risk of Alcohol Dependence. (United States)

    Andersen, Allan M; Pietrzak, Robert H; Kranzler, Henry R; Ma, Li; Zhou, Hang; Liu, Xiaoming; Kramer, John; Kuperman, Samuel; Edenberg, Howard J; Nurnberger, John I; Rice, John P; Tischfield, Jay A; Goate, Alison; Foroud, Tatiana M; Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Porjesz, Bernice; Dick, Danielle M; Hesselbrock, Victor; Boerwinkle, Eric; Southwick, Steven M; Krystal, John H; Weissman, Myrna M; Levinson, Douglas F; Potash, James B; Gelernter, Joel; Han, Shizhong


    Major depressive disorder (MDD) and alcohol dependence (AD) are heritable disorders with significant public health burdens, and they are frequently comorbid. Common genetic factors that influence the co-occurrence of MDD and AD have been sought in family, twin, and adoption studies, and results to date have been promising but inconclusive. To examine whether AD and MDD overlap genetically, using a polygenic score approach. Association analyses were conducted between MDD polygenic risk score (PRS) and AD case-control status in European ancestry samples from 4 independent genome-wide association study (GWAS) data sets: the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA); the Study of Addiction, Genetics, and Environment (SAGE); the Yale-Penn genetic study of substance dependence; and the National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study (NHRVS). Results from a meta-analysis of MDD (9240 patients with MDD and 9519 controls) from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium were applied to calculate PRS at thresholds from P men; mean [SD] age, 38.2 [10.8] years) and 522 controls (151 [28.9.%] men; age [SD], 43.9 [11.6] years) from COGA; 631 cases (333 [52.8%] men; age [SD], 35.0 [7.7] years) and 756 controls (260 [34.4%] male; age [SD] 36.1 [7.7] years) from SAGE; 2135 cases (1375 [64.4%] men; age [SD], 39.4 [11.5] years) and 350 controls (126 [36.0%] men; age [SD], 43.5 [13.9] years) from Yale-Penn; and 317 cases (295 [93.1%] men; age [SD], 59.1 [13.1] years) and 1719 controls (1545 [89.9%] men; age [SD], 64.5 [13.3] years) from NHRVS. Higher MDD PRS was associated with a significantly increased risk of AD in all samples (COGA: best P = 1.7 × 10-6, R2 = 0.026; SAGE: best P = .001, R2 = 0.01; Yale-Penn: best P = .035, R2 = 0.0018; and NHRVS: best P = .004, R2 = 0.0074), with stronger evidence for association after meta-analysis of the 4 samples (best P = 3.3 × 10-9). In analyses adjusted for MDD status in 3 AD GWAS data

  14. Psychosocial and demographic factors influencing pain scores of patients with knee osteoarthritis. (United States)

    Eberly, Lauren; Richter, Dustin; Comerci, George; Ocksrider, Justin; Mercer, Deana; Mlady, Gary; Wascher, Daniel; Schenck, Robert


    Pain levels in patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee are commonly assessed by using a numeric scoring system, but results may be influenced by factors other than the patient's actual physical discomfort or disease severity, including psychosocial and demographic variables. We examined the possible relation between knee-pain scores and several psychosocial, sociodemographic, disease, and treatment variables in 355 patients with knee OA. The pain-evaluation instrument was a 0- to 10-point rating scale. Data obtained retrospectively from the patients' medical records were demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), concomitant disorders, illicit and prescription drug use, alcohol use, smoking, knee OA treatment, and severity of knee OA indicated by Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) radiographic grade. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine whether these variables correlated with reported pain scores. On univariate analysis, higher pain scores were significantly associated with Native American or Hispanic ethnicity; a higher BMI; current prescription for an opioid, antidepressant, or gabapentinoid medication; depression; diabetes mellitus; fibromyalgia; illicit drug use; lack of health insurance; smoking; previous knee injection; and recommendation by the clinician that the patient undergo knee surgery. Neither the patient's sex nor the KL grade showed a correlation. On multivariate analysis, depression, current opioid prescription, and Native American or Hispanic ethnicity retained a significant association with higher pain scores. Our results in a large, ethnically diverse group of patients with knee OA suggest that psychosocial and sociodemographic factors may be important determinants of pain levels reported by patients with knee OA.

  15. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  16. Body fat, abdominal fat and body fat distribution related to cardiovascular risk factors in prepubertal children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Wollmer, Per; Karlsson, Magnus K


    Aim:  We analysed whether total body fat (TBF), abdominal fat and body fat distribution are associated with higher composite risk factor scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in young children. Methods:  Cross-sectional study of 238 children aged 8-11 years. TBF and abdominal fat mass (AFM) wer......, separately, and used as composite risk factor score. Results:  Pearson correlations between ln BF%, ln AFM and AFM/TBF versus composite risk factor score for boys were r = 0.56, r = 0.59 and r = 0.48, all p ...

  17. Screening applicants for risk of poor academic performance: a novel scoring system using preadmission grade point averages and graduate record examination scores. (United States)

    Luce, David


    The purpose of this study was to develop an effective screening tool for identifying physician assistant (PA) program applicants at highest risk for poor academic performance. Prior to reviewing applications for the class of 2009, a retrospective analysis of preadmission data took place for the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. A single composite score was calculated for each student who matriculated (number of subjects, N=228) incorporating the total undergraduate grade point average (UGPA), the science GPA (SGPA), and the three component Graduate Record Examination (GRE) scores: verbal (GRE-V), quantitative (GRE-Q), analytical (GRE-A). Individual applicant scores for each of the five parameters were ranked in descending quintiles. Each applicant's five quintile scores were then added, yielding a total quintile score ranging from 25, which indicated an excellent performance, to 5, which indicated poorer performance. Thirteen of the 228 students had academic difficulty (dismissal, suspension, or one-quarter on academic warning or probation). Twelve of the 13 students having academic difficulty had a preadmission total quintile score 12 (range, 6-14). In response to this descriptive analysis, when selecting applicants for the class of 2009, the admissions committee used the total quintile score for screening applicants for interviews. Analysis of correlations in preadmission, graduate, and postgraduate performance data for the classes of 2009-2013 will continue and may help identify those applicants at risk for academic difficulty. Establishing a threshold total quintile score of applicant GPA and GRE scores may significantly decrease the number of entering PA students at risk for poor academic performance.

  18. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan


    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

  19. Factors associated with dietary diversity score among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. (United States)

    Tiew, Kee Fong; Chan, Yoke Mun; Lye, Munn Sann; Loke, Seng Cheong


    Studies on diet quality among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are scarce. This crosssectional study aimed to assess the diet quality and to determine its associated factors among individuals with T2DM at the Medical Outpatients Department, Serdang Hospital, Selangor, Malaysia, from July 2010 to March 2011. Subjects were interviewed for sociodemographic data. Diabetes history was retrieved from the hospital's e-database. Usual dietary intake was measured using a food frequency questionnaire, from which a dietary diversity score was obtained with two measures: Food Group Score and Serving Score were constructed based on the Malaysian Dietary Guidelines. Food Group Score was computed from the number of food groups consumed from five major food groups (grains, vegetables, fruits, meat, and dairy products) whereas Serving Score was computed from the number of servings consumed from the various food groups. Anthropometric measures, including weight, height, waist- and hip-circumference were examined. For data analyses, descriptive statistics, simple and multiple linear regression were conducted using IBM SPSS Statis- tics 20.0. A total of 113 subjects (50.4% female), with mean?SD age of 54.05 +/- 10.30 years and duration of diabetes of 11.25?9.05 years were studied. The mean Food Group Score and Serving Score were 4.12 +/- 0.79 and 12.75+3.50 respectively. Slightly more than one-third of the subjects achieved five food groups a day while less than 2% consumed a desirable number of servings from all food groups. Among the five food groups, dairy, and fruits were the least-frequently consumed foods. Lower education, lower personal income, working, non-insulin, overweight and obese subjects had significantly lower Food Group Score than their counterparts [F (6,106)=4.924, pdiet in accordance with the guidelines should be emphasized, especially among those with lower educational level through a simple and easy-to-understand approach.

  20. Relation of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors between Parents and Children. (United States)

    Halvorsen, Tanya; Moran, Antoinette; Jacobs, David R; Steffen, Lyn M; Sinaiko, Alan R; Zhou, Xia; Steinberger, Julia


    To explore the relations of parent-child cardiometabolic risk factors and assess the influence of adiposity on these associations. Associations of adiposity, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting insulin and glucose, and a risk factor cluster score (CS) were evaluated in a cross-sectional study of 179 parents and their children (6-18 years, N = 255). Insulin resistance was assessed by euglycemic clamp in parents and children aged 10 years or older. Metabolic syndrome in parents was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. CSs of the risk factors were created based on age-specific z-scores. Analyses included Pearson correlation and linear regression, adjusted for parent and child age, sex, race, and body mass index (BMI), accounting for within-family correlation. We found positive parent-child correlations for measures of adiposity (BMI, BMI percentile, waist, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat; r = 0.22-0.34, all P ≤ .003), systolic BP (r = 0.20, P = .002), total cholesterol (r = 0.39, P parent-child correlations, except systolic BP, remained significant. Although adiposity is strongly correlated between parents and children, many cardiometabolic risk factors correlate independent of parent and child BMI. Adverse parental cardiometabolic profiles may identify at-risk children independent of the child's adiposity status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk Factors for Depression : Differential Across Age?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaakxs, Roxanne; Comijs, Hannie C; van der Mast, Roos C; Schoevers, Robert A; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of well-established risk factors for depression differs across the lifespan. Risk factors may be more strongly associated with depression at ages when occurrence, and therefore expectance, is relatively low ("on-time off-time" hypothesis). This large-scale study examined

  2. Physical risk factors for neck pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariëns, Geertje A M; Van Mechelen, Willem; Bongers, Paulien M.; Bouter, Lex M.; Van Der Wal, Gerrit


    To identify physical risk factors for neck pain, a systematic review of the literature was carried out. Based on methodological quality and study design, 4 levels of evidence were defined to establish the strength of evidence for the relationship between risk factors and neck pain. Altogether, 22

  3. Data collection on risk factors in pregnancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zetstra-van der Woude, Alethea Priscilla


    This thesis aims to investigate the different methods of data collection of risk factors in pregnancy. Several observational epidemiologic study designs were used to assess associations between risk factors and negative birth outcomes. We especially looked at the use of folic acid around pregnancy

  4. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality? (United States)

    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej


    Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  5. Transient risk factors of acute occupational injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerlund, Anna H; Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent


    Objectives The objectives of this study were to (i) identify transient risk factors of occupational injuries and (ii) determine if the risk varies with age, injury severity, job task, and industry risk level. Method A case-crossover design was used to examine the effect of seven specific transient...... risk factors (time pressure, disagreement with someone, feeling sick, being distracted by someone, non-routine task, altered surroundings, and broken machinery and materials) for occupational injuries. In the study, 1693 patients with occupational injuries were recruited from a total of 4002...... in relation to sex, age, job task, industry risk level, or injury severity. Conclusion Use of a case-crossover design identified several worker-related transient risk factors (time pressure, feeling sick, being distracted by someone) that led to significantly increased risks for occupational injuries...

  6. Risk of low Apgar score and socioeconomic position: a study of Swedish male births. (United States)

    Odd, David E; Doyle, Pat; Gunnell, David; Lewis, Glyn; Whitelaw, Andrew; Rasmussen, Finn


    The aim of this study was to investigate the association between maternal socioeconomic position and a persistent low Apgar score (a score of manual (Odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (0.72-0.97)) and self-employed (OR 0.64 (0.44-0.93)) occupations were less likely to have an infant with a low Apgar score, compared to manual workers. There was evidence that the risk of a low Apgar score decreased as the mother's level of education increased, if the infant was born by instrumental (OR 0.86 (0.74-0.99)) or caesarean section (OR 0.80 (0.68-0.93)) delivery, but not by unassisted vaginal delivery (OR 1.01 (0.92-1.10)). There was a lower risk of poor birth condition in male infants born to more educated and non-manual/self-employed mothers. These differences may contribute to our understanding of socioeconomic differences in infant health and development although the results may not be applicable due to changes over the last 30 years.

  7. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, J; Rosthøj, Steen


    Please cite this paper as: Jangö H, Langhoff-Roos J, Rosthøj S, Sakse A. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures: a population-based cohort study. BJOG 2012;00:000-000 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2012.03486.x. Objective  To determine the incidence and risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter...... were used to determine risk factors of recurrent ASR. Main outcome measures  The incidence of recurrent ASR and odds ratios for possible risk factors of recurrent ASR: age, body mass index, grade of ASR, birthweight, head circumference, gestational age, presentation, induction of labour, oxytocin...... augmentation, epidural, episiotomy, vacuum extraction, forceps, shoulder dystocia, delivery interval and year of second delivery. Results  Out of 159 446 women, 7336 (4.6%) experienced an ASR at first delivery, and 521 (7.1%) had a recurrent ASR (OR 5.91). The risk factors of recurrent ASR in the multivariate...

  8. The association between risk factors and hypertension in perak, malaysia. (United States)

    Loh, K W; Rani, F; Chan, T C; Loh, H Y; Ng, C W; Moy, F M


    Hypertension is a major public health problem in Malaysia. A survey was initiated to examine the association of modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for hypertension in Perak, Malaysia. A total of 2025 respondents aged 30 years and above were recruited using a multi-stage sampling method. Hypertension was defined as self-reported hypertension and/or average of two blood pressure readings at single occasion with SBP ≥ 140mmHg or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg. Body mass index (BMI) was defined using the Asian criteria and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was used to evaluate physical activity. Body weight, height and blood pressure were obtained using standard procedures. Univariate analyses were conducted to examine the associations between risk factors and hypertension. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine each significant risk factor on hypertension after adjusted for confounders. In total, 1076 (54.9%) respondents were found to be hypertensive. Significant associations (p diet, respondents who were obese and had positive family history had higher odds for hypertension (OR:2.34; 95% CI:1.84-3.17 and 1.96 (1.59-2.42) respectively. A significant increase (p diet score and smoking were not significantly associated with increased risk for hypertension. In conclusion, modifiable risk factors such as BMI and physical activity are important risk factors to target in reducing the risk for hypertension.

  9. [Muscle and bone health as a risk factor of fall among the elderly. An approach to identify high-risk fallers by risk assessment]. (United States)

    Kikuchi, Reiko; Kozaki, Koichi; Nakamura, Tetsuro; Toba, Kenji


    Fall-induced hip fracture is one of the major causes rendering the elderly to be in a low ADL or bed-ridden status. Fall is not only the cause for fractures, but it lowers elderly peoples'ADL. History of fall, age, decline of motor function, orthostatic hypotension, balance deficit, dementia, drug and environmental factors were raised as possible risk factor for falls. We created a fall predicting score which consist of 21 risk factors and a history of falls. We found that the score is useful to identify high-risk fallers. It would be necessary to identify high-risk fallers early and give an appropriate individual approach.

  10. Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score. (United States)

    Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S


    Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

  11. Peptic ulcer bleeding patients with Rockall scores ≥6 are at risk of long-term ulcer rebleeding: A 3.5-year prospective longitudinal study. (United States)

    Yang, Er-Hsiang; Cheng, Hsiu-Chi; Wu, Chung-Tai; Chen, Wei-Ying; Lin, Meng-Ying; Sheu, Bor-Shyang


    Patients with high Rockall scores have increased risk of rebleeding and mortality within 30 days after peptic ulcer bleeding, but long-term outcomes deserve follow-up after cessation of proton pump inhibitors. The paper aimed to validate whether patients with high Rockall scores have more recurrent ulcer bleeding in a 3.5-year longitudinal cohort. Between August 2011 and July 2014, 368 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were prospectively enrolled after endoscopic hemostasis to receive proton pump inhibitors for at least 8 to 16 weeks. These subjects were categorized into either a Rockall scores ≥6 group (n = 257) or a Rockall scores ulcer bleeding. The proportion of patients with rebleeding during the 3.5-year follow-up was higher in patients with Rockall scores ≥6 than in those with scores ulcer (P = 0.04) were three additional independent factors found to increase rebleeding risk. The cumulative rebleeding rate was higher in patients with Rockall scores ≥6 with more than or equal to any two additional factors than in those with fewer than two additional factors (15.69 vs. 7.63 per 100 person-year, P = 0.012, log-rank test). Patients with Rockall scores ≥6 are at risk of long-term recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding. The risk can be independently increased by the presence of activated partial thromboplastin time prolonged ≥1.5-fold, American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥III, and gastric ulcer in patients with Rockall scores ≥6. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  12. Contextual factors in liquidity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonner, C.; van Lelyveld, I.P.P.; Zymek, R.


    We assess the determinants of banks’ liquidity holdings using data for nearly 7000 banks from 25 OECD countries. We highlight the role of several bank-specific, institutional and policy variables in shaping banks’ liquidity risk management. Our main question is whether liquidity regulation

  13. Prediction of acute pancreatitis risk based on PIP score in children with cystic fibrosis. (United States)

    Terlizzi, V; Tosco, A; Tomaiuolo, R; Sepe, A; Amato, N; Casale, A; Mercogliano, C; De Gregorio, F; Improta, F; Elce, A; Castaldo, G; Raia, V


    Currently no tools to predict risk of acute (AP) and recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) are available. We assessed the prevalence of AP/ARP and tested the potential role of Pancreatic Insufficiency Prevalence (PIP) score in a cohort of children with CF. We identified two groups of children, on the basis of presence/absence of AP/ARP, who were compared for age at diagnosis, clinical features, genotypes and sweat chloride level. PIP score was calculated for each patient. 10/167 (5.9%) experienced at least one episode of AP during follow up; 10/10 were pancreatic sufficient (PS). Patients with AP/ARP showed a PIP score ≤0.25 more frequently (6/10) than patients without AP/ARP. The odds ratio (95% CI) of developing pancreatitis was 4.54 (1.22-16.92) for patients with PIP 0.25 (p 0.0151). PIP score was correlated with sweat chloride test (p < 0.01). PIP score, PS status and normal/borderline sweat chloride levels could be applied to predict pancreatitis development in children with CF. ARP could lead to pancreatic insufficiency. Copyright © 2014 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Associations of genetic risk scores based on adult adiposity pathways with childhood growth and adiposity measures


    Monnereau, Claire; Vogelezang, Suzanne; Kruithof, Claudia J.; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Felix, Janine F.


    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified many loci and biological pathways that influence adult body mass index (BMI). We aimed to identify if biological pathways related to adult BMI also affect infant growth and childhood adiposity measures. Methods We used data from a population-based prospective cohort study among 3,975 children with a mean age of 6?years. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on the 97 SNPs associated with adult BMI previously identi...

  15. Intrinsic Risk Factors of Falls in Elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmin Amatullah


    Full Text Available Background: Falls are common geriatric problems. The risk factors of falls are the intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors. Studies on falls are scarcely conducted in Indonesia, especially in Bandung. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the intrinsic risk factors of falls among elderly. Methods: A descriptive study was carried out from August to October 2013 at the Geriatric Clinic of Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung. Fifty three participants were selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria using consecutive sampling. The determined variables in this study were classification of the risk of falls, demographic profile, history of falls, disease, and medications. After the selection, the participants were tested by Timed up-and-go test (TUGT. Moreover, an interview and analysis of medical records were carried out to discover the risk factors of falls. The collected data were analyzed and presented in the form of percentages shown in tables. Results: From 53 patients, women (35.66% were considered to have higher risk of fall than men (18.34%. The majority of patients (66% with the risk of fall were from the age group 60–74 years. The major diseases suffered by patients were hypertension, osteoarthritis and diabetes mellitus. Drugs that were widely used were antihypertensive drugs; analgesic and antipyretic drugs and antidiabetic drugs. Conclusions: There are various intrinsic risk factors of falls in elderly and each of the elderly has more than one intrinsic risk factor of falls.

  16. A risk score for in-hospital death in patients admitted with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. (United States)

    Smith, Eric E; Shobha, Nandavar; Dai, David; Olson, DaiWai M; Reeves, Mathew J; Saver, Jeffrey L; Hernandez, Adrian F; Peterson, Eric D; Fonarow, Gregg C; Schwamm, Lee H


    We aimed to derive and validate a single risk score for predicting death from ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Data from 333 865 stroke patients (IS, 82.4%; ICH, 11.2%; SAH, 2.6%; uncertain type, 3.8%) in the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke database were used. In-hospital mortality varied greatly according to stroke type (IS, 5.5%; ICH, 27.2%; SAH, 25.1%; unknown type, 6.0%; Pmortality and to assign point scores for a prediction model in the overall population and in the subset with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) recorded (37.1%). The c statistic, a measure of how well the models discriminate the risk of death, was 0.78 in the overall validation sample and 0.86 in the model including NIHSS. The model with NIHSS performed nearly as well in each stroke type as in the overall model including all types (c statistics for IS alone, 0.85; for ICH alone, 0.83; for SAH alone, 0.83; uncertain type alone, 0.86). The calibration of the model was excellent, as demonstrated by plots of observed versus predicted mortality. A single prediction score for all stroke types can be used to predict risk of in-hospital death following stroke admission. Incorporation of NIHSS information substantially improves this predictive accuracy.

  17. Exploratory study of factors related to educational scores of first preclinical year medical students. (United States)

    Sitticharoon, Chantacha; Srisuma, Sorachai; Kanavitoon, Sawita; Summachiwakij, Sarayut


    The relationships among the scores of major subjects taught in the first preclinical year of a Thai medical school, previous academic achievements, and daily life activities are rarely explored. We therefore performed an exploratory study identifying various factors possibly related to the educational scores of these medical students. Questionnaires were sent out to all first preclinical year medical students, with 79.8% being returned (245/307 questionnaires). Positive correlations were revealed between the premedical year grade point average (pre-MD GPA) and anatomy, physiology, and biochemistry scores (R = 0.664, 0.521, and 0.653, respectively, P student satisfaction with anatomy, the percentage of expected reading, monthly earnings, reading after class and near exam time, and duration of sleeping periods near exam time (R = 0.773, R(2) = 0.598, P student satisfaction with biochemistry, and exam performance expectations (R = 0.794, R(2) = 0.630, P satisfaction.

  18. In-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction in correlation with 'thrombolysis in myocardial infarction' risk score

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masood, A.; Naqvi, M.A.; Jafar, S.S.


    Effective risk stratification is integral to management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a simple integer score based on 8 high-risk parameters that can be used at the bedside for risk stratification of patients at presentation with STEMI. To evaluate the prognostic significance of TIMI risk score in a local population group of acute STEMI. The study included 160 cases of STEMI eligible for thrombolysis. TIMI risk score was calculated for each case at the time of presentation and were then followed during their hospital stay for the occurrence of electrical and mechanical complications as well as mortality. The patients were divided into three risk groups, namely 'low risk', 'moderate-risk' and 'high-risk' based on their TIMI scores (0-4 low-risk, 5-8 moderate-risk, 9-14 high risk). The frequencies of complications and deaths were compared among the three risk groups. Post MI arrhythmias were noted in 2.2%, 16% and 50%; cardiogenic shock in 6.7%, 16% and 60%; pulmonary edema in 6.7%, 20% and 80%; mechanical complications of MI in 0%, 8% and 30%; death in 4.4%, 8%, and 60% of patients belonging to low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Frequency of complications and death correlated well with TIMI risk score (p=0.001). TIMI risk score correlates well with the frequency of electrical or mechanical complications and death after STEMI. (author)

  19. Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data. (United States)

    Walters, K; Hardoon, S; Petersen, I; Iliffe, S; Omar, R Z; Nazareth, I; Rait, G


    Existing dementia risk scores require collection of additional data from patients, limiting their use in practice. Routinely collected healthcare data have the potential to assess dementia risk without the need to collect further information. Our objective was to develop and validate a 5-year dementia risk score derived from primary healthcare data. We used data from general practices in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database from across the UK, randomly selecting 377 practices for a development cohort and identifying 930,395 patients aged 60-95 years without a recording of dementia, cognitive impairment or memory symptoms at baseline. We developed risk algorithm models for two age groups (60-79 and 80-95 years). An external validation was conducted by validating the model on a separate cohort of 264,224 patients from 95 randomly chosen THIN practices that did not contribute to the development cohort. Our main outcome was 5-year risk of first recorded dementia diagnosis. Potential predictors included sociodemographic, cardiovascular, lifestyle and mental health variables. Dementia incidence was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.83-1.93) and 16.53 (95% CI, 16.15-16.92) per 1000 PYAR for those aged 60-79 (n = 6017) and 80-95 years (n = 7104), respectively. Predictors for those aged 60-79 included age, sex, social deprivation, smoking, BMI, heavy alcohol use, anti-hypertensive drugs, diabetes, stroke/TIA, atrial fibrillation, aspirin, depression. The discrimination and calibration of the risk algorithm were good for the 60-79 years model; D statistic 2.03 (95% CI, 1.95-2.11), C index 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.87), and calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.02). The algorithm had a high negative predictive value, but lower positive predictive value at most risk thresholds. Discrimination and calibration were poor for the 80-95 years model. Routinely collected data predicts 5-year risk of recorded diagnosis of dementia for those aged 60-79, but not those aged 80+. This

  20. Significant relationships between a simple marker of redox balance and lifestyle behaviours; Relevance to the Framingham risk score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neda Seyedsadjadi

    Full Text Available Oxidative stress has been closely linked to the progressive cell damage associated with emerging non-communicable disease (NCDs. Early detection of these biochemical abnormalities before irreversible cell damage occurs may therefore be useful in identifying disease risk at an individual level. In order to test this hypothesis, this study assessed the relationship between a simple measure of redox status and lifestyle risk factors for NCDs, and the population-based risk score of Framingham. In a cross-sectional study design, 100 apparently healthy middle-aged males (n = 48 and females (n = 52 were asked to complete a comprehensive lifestyle assessment questionnaire, followed by body fat percentage and blood pressure measurements, and blood collection. The ratio of plasma total antioxidant capacity to hydroperoxide (TAC/HPX was used as an index of redox balance. One-way ANOVA and multiple linear regression analysis were performed to analyse the association between TAC/HPX, lifestyle components and other plasma biomarkers. The TAC/HPX ratio was higher in males compared to females (t96 = 2.34, P = 0.021. TAC/HPX was also lower in participants with poor sleep quality (t93 = 2.39, P = 0.019, with high sleep apnoea risk (t62.2 = 3.32, P = 0.002, with high caffeine (F(2, 93 = 3.97, P = 0.022 and red meat intake (F(2, 93 = 5.55, P = 0.005. These associations were independent of gender. Furthermore, the TAC/HPX ratio decreased with increasing body fat percentage (F(2, 95 = 4.74, P = 0.011 and depression score (t94 = 2.38, P = 0.019, though these associations were dependent on gender. Importantly, a negative association was observed between TAC/HPX levels and the Framingham risk score in both males (r(45 = -0.39, P = 0.008 and females (r(50 = -0.33, P = 0.019 that was independent of other Framingham risk score components. Findings from this study suggests that a relatively simple measure of redox balance such as the TAC/HPX ratio may be a sensitive

  1. Development of a novel scoring system for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain. (United States)

    Oltmanns, J; Licht, O; Bitsch, A; Bohlen, M-L; Escher, S E; Silano, V; MacLeod, M; Serafimova, R; Kass, G E N; Merten, C


    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for risk assessment of all aspects of food safety, including the establishment of procedures aimed at the identification of emerging risks to food safety. Here, a scoring system was developed for identifying chemicals registered under the European REACH Regulation that could be of potential concern in the food chain using the following parameters: (i) environmental release based on maximum aggregated tonnages and environmental release categories; (ii) biodegradation in the environment; (iii) bioaccumulation and in vivo and in vitro toxicity. The screening approach was tested on 100 data-rich chemicals registered under the REACH Regulation at aggregated volumes of at least 1000 tonnes per annum. The results show that substance-specific data generated under the REACH Regulation can be used to identify potential emerging risks in the food chain. After application of the screening procedure, priority chemicals can be identified as potentially emerging risk chemicals through the integration of exposure, environmental fate and toxicity. The default approach is to generate a single total score for each substance using a predefined weighting scenario. However, it is also possible to use a pivot table approach to combine the individual scores in different ways that reflect user-defined priorities, which enables a very flexible, iterative definition of screening criteria. Possible applications of the approaches are discussed using illustrative examples. Either approach can then be followed by in-depth evaluation of priority substances to ensure the identification of substances that present a real emerging chemical risk in the food chain.

  2. Improvements on Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Factors in Obese Adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gomes Silva, Humberto José; Andersen, Lars Bo; Lofrano-Prado, Mara Cristina


    BACKGROUND: It is unclear how different exercise intensities affect cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in obese adolescents. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of high intensity (HIT) vs. low intensity (LIT) aerobic training on CVD risk factors in obese adolescents. METHODS......: Forty-three obese adolescents (age: 15.7±1.3y, BMI: 34.3±4.1kg/m2) participated this study either HIT (corresponding to ventilatory threshold-I, VT1; N=20) or LIT (20% below VT1; N=23) for 12 weeks (12W). All sessions were isocaloric (350 kcal). All participants received the same nutritional......, psychological and clinical counseling. Subjects were assessed in fatness, fitness, lipid profile and glucose at baseline and after 12W. The CVD risk factors assessed were waist circumference (WC), total cholesterol (TC), HDL, glucose and fitness, which were single and clustered analyzed (Z-scores sum). RESULTS...

  3. Musculoskeletal Risk Factors in the Young Athlete. (United States)

    Moskwa, C A; Nicholas, J A; Goldberg, B


    In brief: Many children and adolescents participate in sports that put them at risk for musculoskeletal injuries. Underlying physical conditions, or risk factors, may predispose them to particular types of sports injuries. Research shows that these risk factors fall into five categories: body type, flexibility, muscle strength, inadequate rehabilitation of a previous injury, and skeletal malalignment and anomalies. Some findings show, for example, that youthful football players who are also heavy have an increased rate of injury, sprains and strains are less common in flexible athletes, and patellar pain or subluxation may be related to a variety of malalignment factors. The authors recommend using a systematic, integrated approach to risk assessment of the athlete, both for detecting risk factors and determining their potential for con tribu ting to a sports injury.

  4. Assessment of risk factors for noncommunicable disease risk factors among men of working age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yu. Vasilyev


    Full Text Available Objective: the investigation of some modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and poor explored as well of non-convectional diseases among men of working age.Subjects and methods. Seven thousand thirty five men in age of 18 to 60 years were examined. History data included age, gender, nationality,high blood pressure (BP episodes, antihypertensive drugs taking in case of arterial hypertension, smoking. Instrumental examination included BP measurement when seated after 5 minutes of the rest with mean BP calculation. Total cholesterol and creatinine in blood, clearance of creatinine calculation by Cockcroft–Gault formula, microalbuminuria were assayed; depression level was estimated by Beck score. With purpose to analyze the risk factors structure all examined subjects were divided into three groups according to SCORE scale.Results. Cholesterol level analysis revealed the increasing of parameter in 41.7 % of examined patients (n = 307. Microalbuminuria was revealed in 13.8 % (n = 102 of men, and 19.3 % of them (n = 80 had increased blood pressure. Some levels of depression were revealed in 42.5 % (n = 312, among them the arterial hypertension was observed in 62,5 % (n = 195. The group with low and moderate cardiovascular risk consisted of 594 persons (80.8 %. High cardiovascular risk was determined in 15.2 % men of working age (n = 112. Very high cardiovascular risk was revealed in 3.9 % (n = 29 of responders.Conclusion. Increasing of traditional risk factors rate is associated with increasing of additional risk factors. Received data are widening the perception about risk factors structure in population. Particularly the question about renal filtration function role, depressive syndrome, trophologic insufficiency is raised. Consideration of those in prophylaxis system consideration requires a specific education of general practitioners.


    Prostate cancer has the highest prevalence of any non-skin cancer in the human body, with similar likelihood of neoplastic foci found within the prostates of men around the world regardless of diet, occupation, lifestyle, or other factors. Essentially all men with circulating an...

  6. Psychological Risk Factors in Headache (United States)

    Nicholson, Robert A.; Houle, Timothy T.; Rhudy, Jamie L.; Norton, Peter J.


    Headache is a chronic disease that occurs with varying frequency and results in varying levels of disability. To date, the majority of research and clinical focus has been on the role of biological factors in headache and headache-related disability. However, reliance on a purely biomedical model of headache does not account for all aspects of headache and associated disability. Using a biopsychosocial framework, the current manuscript expands the view of what factors influence headache by considering the role psychological (i.e., cognitive and affective) factors have in the development, course, and consequences of headache. The manuscript initially reviews evidence showing that neural circuits responsible for cognitive–affective phenomena are highly interconnected with the circuitry responsible for headache pain. The manuscript then reviews the influence cognitions (locus of control and self-efficacy) and negative affect (depression, anxiety, and anger) have on the development of headache attacks, perception of headache pain, adherence to prescribed treatment, headache treatment outcome, and headache-related disability. The manuscript concludes with a discussion of the clinical implications of considering psychological factors when treating headache. PMID:17371358

  7. Risk factors and characteristics of prostate cancer bone metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-ming LIN


    Full Text Available Objective To analyze the risk factors and characteristics of bone metastases in patients with prostate cancer. Methods Patients who were diagnosed as prostate cancer by biopsy and histopathologic analysis between June 2006 and June 2016 were included in this study. The clinical data of the patients were reviewed, and the demographic data, laboratory examination results and Gleason score were recorded. The correlations between clinical factors and bone metastasis were analyzed, and the risk factors of bone metastasis were identified. Results A total of 585 patients were recruited in this study, including 228 with bone metastasis and 357 without bone metastasis. Of the patients with bone metastasis, the incidence of pelvic metastasis was the highest, accounting for 81.58%, followed by spin (63.16% and rib (58.33%, and the incidence of clavicle metastasis was the lowest (14.47%. Logistic regression analysis showed that age 85.5U/L, prostate-specific antigen >79.88μg/L and Gleason score >7.5 were the risk factors of bone metastasis in prostate cancer. ROC curve analysis showed that the sensitivity of diagnosing bone metastasis was 56.1%, 66.7%, 68.4% and 56.1%, and the specificity was 56.6%, 81.8%, 70.0% and 65.3%, respectively for above 4 factors. Conclusions The most common site of bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer is pelvis. Patients' age, concentrations of plasma ALP and PSA, and Gleason score are the risk factors for bone metastasis in patients with prostate cancer. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2017.08.09

  8. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia, E-mail: [Post-Graduation Program in Health Sciences: Cardiology, Instituto de Cardiologia/Fundação Universitária de Cardiologia, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)


    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

  9. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia


    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery

  10. The Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment: a scoring system to predict the risk of relapse to any alcohol use after liver transplant. (United States)

    Rodrigue, James R; Hanto, Douglas W; Curry, Michael P


    Alcohol relapse after liver transplant heightens concern about recurrent disease, nonadherence to the immunosuppression regimen, and death. To develop a scoring system to stratify risk of alcohol relapse after liver transplant. Retrospective medical record review. All adult liver transplants performed from May 2002 to February 2011 at a single center in the United States. The incidence of return to any alcohol consumption after liver transplant. Thirty-four percent (40/118) of patients with a history of alcohol abuse/dependency relapsed to use of any alcohol after liver transplant. Nine of 25 hypothesized risk factors were predictive of alcohol relapse after liver transplant: absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, tobacco dependence, continued alcohol use after liver disease diagnosis, low motivation for alcohol treatment, poor stress management skills, no rehabilitation relationship, limited social support, lack of nonmedical behavioral consequences, and continued engagement in social activities with alcohol present. Each independent predictor was assigned an Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA) risk value of 1 point, and patients were classified into 1 of 4 groups by ARRA score: ARRA I = 0, ARRA II = 1 to 3, ARRA III = 4 to 6, and ARRA IV = 7 to 9. Patients in the 2 higher ARRA classifications had significantly higher rates of alcohol relapse and were more likely to return to pretransplant levels of drinking. Alcohol relapse rates are moderately high after liver transplant. The ARRA is a valid and practical tool for identifying pretransplant patients with alcohol abuse or dependency at elevated risk of any alcohol use after liver transplant.

  11. Risk factors of coercion among psychiatric inpatients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Christoffer; Starkopf, Liis; Hastrup, Lene Halling


    PURPOSE: Reducing the use of coercion among patients with mental disorders has long been a political priority. However, risk factors for coercive measures have primarily been investigated in smaller studies. To reduce the use of coercion, it is crucial to identify people at risk which we aim to do...... and having children, reduced the risk of being subjected to coercive measure (all p risk factors associated with coercive measures. Our findings can assist researchers in identifying patients at risk of coercion and thereby help...... measure (21.9%). Clinical characteristics were the foremost predictors of coercion and patients with organic mental disorder had the highest increased risk of being subjected to a coercive measure (OR = 5.56; 95% CI = 5.04, 6.14). The risk of coercion was the highest in the first admission and decreased...

  12. Applicability of the heart failure Readmission Risk score: A first European study. (United States)

    Formiga, Francesc; Masip, Joan; Chivite, David; Corbella, Xavier


    The Readmission Risk score (RR score) has been considered useful to predict Medicare/Medicaid patients' likelihood of 30-day hospital readmission for heart failure (HF). To our knowledge, the accuracy of this prediction model has not been independently validated in other clinical circumstances in Europe. From July 2013 to December 2014, all patients who survived to a first admission due to decompensated HF at our tertiary care teaching hospital were retrospectively included in the study. The RR score was calculated in all patients to predict future 30 and 90-day unplanned all-cause readmissions. A total of 679 patients were included, of them, 52 patients (7.6%) were readmitted by any cause within 30days after discharge, and 98 (14.4%) within 90days. When compared, the average RR scores for patients readmitted was significantly higher to those who did not, either within 30days (22.7 vs. 20.1) or 90days (22.7 vs. 20.1) of discharge. The 30-day C-statistic was 0.649 (95% CI 0.574-0.723) and the 90-day 0.621 (95% CI 0.560-0.681). There was a significant increase in readmission percentages at 30 and 90days with respect to increasing quartiles of RR score. Our results only support a modest applicability of this predictive model in patients at 30 and 90days, after a first hospitalization for decompensated HF. Probably, the fact that our readmission rate in patients firstly admitted due to HF was very low, generated a bias in the study, discouraging the use of this score in the de novo HF patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma-like symptoms : Validating and updating the PIAMA risk score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hafkamp-de Groen, Esther; Lingsma, Hester F.; Caudri, Daan; Levie, Deborah; Wijga, Alet; Koppelman, Gerard H.; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Smit, Henriette A.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Moll, Henriette A.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Jongste, Johan C.; Raat, Hein


    Background: The Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) risk score predicts the probability of having asthma at school age among preschool children with suggestive symptoms. Objective: We sought to externally validate the PIAMA risk score at different ages and in ethnic and

  14. The development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS). (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Palmer, Jerry P


    This report details the development, validation, and utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score (DPTRS) for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Proportional hazards regression was used to develop the DPTRS model which includes the glucose and C-peptide sums from oral glucose tolerance tests at 30, 60, 90, and 120 min, the log fasting C-peptide, age, and the log BMI. The DPTRS was externally validated in the TrialNet Natural History Study cohort (TNNHS). In a study of the application of the DPTRS, the findings showed that it could be used to identify normoglycemic individuals who were at a similar risk for T1D as those with dysglycemia. The DPTRS could also be used to identify lower risk dysglycemic individuals. Risk estimates of individuals deemed to be at higher risk according to DPTRS values did not differ significantly between the DPT-1 and the TNNHS; whereas, the risk estimates for those with dysglycemia were significantly higher in DPT-1. Individuals with very high DPTRS values were found to be at such marked risk for T1D that they could reasonably be considered to be in a pre-diabetic state. The findings indicate that the DPTRS has utility in T1D prevention trials and for identifying pre-diabetic individuals.

  15. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos


    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  16. Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts. (United States)

    Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L


    The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

  17. Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system. (United States)

    Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang


    To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

  18. A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (United States)

    Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro


    Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Demographic determinants of risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease. (United States)

    Golder, Mark; Ster, Irina Chis; Babu, Pratusha; Sharma, Amita; Bayat, Muhammad; Farah, Abdulkadir


    To investigate associations between ethnicity, age and sex and the risk, colon distribution and density scores of diverticular disease (DD). Barium enemas were examined in 1000 patients: 410 male, 590 female; 760 whites, 62 Asians, 44 black africans (BAs), and 134 other blacks (OBs). Risks and diverticula density of left-sided DD (LSDD) and right-sided-component DD (RSCDD = right-sided DD + right and left DD + Pan-DD) were compared using logistic regression. Four hundred and forty-seven patients had DD (322 LSDD and 125 RSCDD). Adjusted risks: (1) LSDD: each year increase in age increased the odds by 6% (95% CI: 5-8, SE: 0.8%, P colonic DD might be more common and has higher diverticula density in the west than previously reported. BAs appear predisposed to DD, whereas other ethnic differences appear conserved following migration.

  20. Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia. (United States)

    Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír


    Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

  1. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.


    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  2. Risk Factors Influencing Construction Procurement Performance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhassan Dahiru


    Full Text Available One of the challenges facing construction procurement performance is the failure to determine the risk related factors limiting its success. These risk factors can cause a significant increase in the procurement cost leading to an increase in the overall project cost. The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the risk factors influencing construction procurement performance with a view to achieve the overall project performance. The objectives are to establish a relative significance index score for the most important risk factors limiting the procurement performance of the projects. A self administered questionnaire was employed to the construction industry professionals for responses. A total of 78 questionnaires were distributed to these professionals (architects, quantity surveyors, engineers, and contractors but 62 were returned and analyzed using influential index and later ranked in order of importance. Results of the analysis indicate a disparity in terms of ranking of the factors influencing construction procurement performance. Corruption related risk, conflict of interest, ineffective project technical feasibility, and lack of commitment to transparency were found to be the most significant factors limiting construction procurement performance. Communication barriers and unconfidential tender evaluation process were found to be the low weighted risk factors. The findings can serve as a supportive mechanism for risks management in public construction procurement management. Therefore, construction procurement personnel at all levels of government may find this study relevant, while improving construction procurement performance in the country. It is recommended that construction procurement system should be focused on risks related to corruption, conflict of interest, and effective technical feasibility for improving the overall project performance.

  3. The relationship between SF-6D utility scores and lifestyle factors across three life stages: evidence from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. (United States)

    Kanesarajah, Jeeva; Waller, Michael; Whitty, Jennifer A; Mishra, Gita D


    To investigate how SF-6D utility scores change with age between generations of women and to quantify the relationship of SF-6D with lifestyle factors across life stages. Up to seven waves of self-reported, longitudinal data were drawn for the 1973-1978 (young, N = 13772), 1946-1951 (mid-age, N = 12792), 1921-1926 (older, N = 9972) cohorts from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Mixed effects models were employed for analysis. Young and mid-age women had similar average SF-6D scores at baseline (0.63-0.64), which remained consistent over the 16-year period. However, older women had lower scores at baseline at 0.57 which steadily declined over 15 years. Across cohorts, low education attainment, greater difficulty in managing income, obesity, physical inactivity, heavy smoking, no alcohol consumption, and increasing stress levels were associated with lower SF-6D scores. The magnitude of effect varied between cohorts. SF-6D scores were lower amongst young women with high-risk drinking behaviours than low-risk drinkers. Mid-age women, who were underweight, never married, or underwent surgical menopause also reported lower SF-6D scores. Older women who lived in remote areas, who were ex-smokers, or were underweight, reported lower SF-6D scores. The SF-6D utility score is sensitive to differences in lifestyle factors across adult life stages. Gradual loss of physical functioning may explain the steady decline in health for older women. Key factors associated with SF-6D include physical activity, body mass index, menopause status, smoking, alcohol use, and stress. Factors associated with poorer SF-6D scores vary in type and magnitude at different life stages.

  4. Screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with mental illness: application of a self-assessment score for diabetes mellitus risk. (United States)

    Shin, Jinah K; Shortridge-Baggett, Lillie M; Sachmechi, Issac; Barron, Charles; Chiu, Ya-Lin; Bajracharya, Bhavana; Bang, Heejung


    Various methods for diabetes risk assessment have been developed over a decade, but they were not evaluated in patients with mental illness. This study examined the feasibility and utility of a self-assessment score for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) risk among patients with mental illness. DM2 risk was assessed by patients with mental illness as well as clinicians via a self-assessment questionnaire, and the resulting scores were compared to each other as well as with actual diagnosis. Of 100 patients, nine patients were newly revealed to have DM2 and 34 patients have pre-DM2. Patients tended to underreport risk factors - obesity and physical activity - so perceived to have lower risk. Sensitivity of the self-assessment score was different when used by patients and by clinicians despite correlation coefficient of 0.82. Based on positive predictive values, we may expect one out of two patients who have high scores actually have DM2 or pre-DM2. Also, the discrimination capability was reasonably high (AUC=0.79), comparable to its performance observed in general populations. The self-assessment score has potential as a simple and adjunct tool to identify a high risk group of DM2/pre-DM2 among persons with mental illness, especially, when used together with health care providers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Validation of a 5-year risk score of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. The Danish Nurse Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundrup, Y A; Jacobsen, R K; Andreasen, A H


    We evaluated the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hip fracture risk score in 15,648 postmenopausal Danish nurses. The algorithm was well calibrated for Denmark. However, the sensitivity was poor at common decision making thresholds. Obtaining sensitivity better than 80% led to a low specificity...... was to test the clinical performance of the algorithm in a large Danish cohort of postmenopausal Caucasian women against hip fracture. METHODS: The Danish Nurse Cohort is a prospective risk factor and hormone therapy (HT) study established in 1993. Participants in the present analysis were 15......,648 postmenopausal nurses. The calibration and diagnostic performance of the WHI algorithm was evaluated using fracture events captured in the Danish National Hospital Registry. RESULTS: During 5 years of follow-up, 122 participants suffered a hip fracture (1.8/1,000 person years). The WHI algorithm predicted...

  6. Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a review. ... ketoacidosis is the most common hyperglycaemic emergency in patients with diabetes mellitus, especially type 1 diabetes.

  7. risk factors for abnormal tubal hysterosalpingographic findings

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    So many presumed risk factors for female tubal infertility are seen among. Nigerian women. ... strategies such as health awareness campaigns against unwanted pregnancy, promotion of responsible ..... of CT findings in acute pyogenic pelvic.

  8. Shoulder Dystocia: Incidence and Risk Factors. (United States)

    Ouzounian, Joseph G


    Shoulder dystocia complicates ∼1% of vaginal births. Although fetal macrosomia and maternal diabetes are risk factors for shoulder dystocia, for the most part its occurrence remains largely unpredictable and unpreventable.

  9. Risk Factors for Developing Atopic Dermatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    G. Carson, Charlotte


    The aim of this thesis was to investigate possible risk factors affecting the development of AD. AD is a frequent disease among children and has a substantial impact on the lives of both the child and its family. A better understanding of the disease would enable better treatment, prevention...... and information to the families involved. Previous risk factor studies have been hampered by an unsuitable study design and/or difficulties in standardization when diagnosing AD, which limit their conclusions. In paper I, we conducted a traditional cross-sectional analysis testing 40 possible risk factors...... exposure to dog was the only environmental exposure that significantly reduced the disease manifestation, suggesting other, yet unknown environmental factors affecting the increasing prevalence of AD in children. Length at birth was shown to be inversely associated with the risk of later developing AD...

  10. Awareness of risk factors for cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada


    Background: Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare...... awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Methods: Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults...... in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Екатерина Игоревна Лебедева


    Conclusion. Mixed somatic and gynecological pathology, abnormalities in hemostasis, combination of inherited and acquired thrombogenic risk factors dominates in women with initial reproductive loss, though only 37,3 % such pregnancies have favorable outcome.

  12. Risk factors for skin cancer among Finnish airline cabin crew. (United States)

    Kojo, Katja; Helminen, Mika; Pukkala, Eero; Auvinen, Anssi


    Increased incidence of skin cancers among airline cabin crew has been reported in several studies. We evaluated whether the difference in risk factor prevalence between Finnish airline cabin crew and the general population could explain the increased incidence of skin cancers among cabin crew, and the possible contribution of estimated occupational cosmic radiation exposure. A self-administered questionnaire survey on occupational, host, and ultraviolet radiation exposure factors was conducted among female cabin crew members and females presenting the general population. The impact of occupational cosmic radiation dose was estimated in a separate nested case-control analysis among the participating cabin crew (with 9 melanoma and 35 basal cell carcinoma cases). No considerable difference in the prevalence of risk factors of skin cancer was found between the cabin crew (N = 702) and the general population subjects (N = 1007) participating the study. The mean risk score based on all the conventional skin cancer risk factors was 1.43 for cabin crew and 1.44 for general population (P = 0.24). Among the cabin crew, the estimated cumulative cosmic radiation dose was not related to the increased skin cancer risk [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57-1.00]. The highest plausible risk of skin cancer for estimated cosmic radiation dose was estimated as 9% per 10 mSv. The skin cancer cases had higher host characteristics scores than the non-cases among cabin crew (adjusted OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01-2.04). Our results indicate no difference between the female cabin crew and the general female population in the prevalence of factors generally associated with incidence of skin cancer. Exposure to cosmic radiation did not explain the excess of skin cancer among the studied cabin crew in this study.

  13. Prognostic Value of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction (from the EPHESUS Trial). (United States)

    Popovic, Batric; Girerd, Nicolas; Rossignol, Patrick; Agrinier, Nelly; Camenzind, Edoardo; Fay, Renaud; Pitt, Bertram; Zannad, Faiez


    The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score remains a robust prediction tool for short-term and midterm outcome in the patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the validity of this risk score in patients with STEMI with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear. A total of 2,854 patients with STEMI with early coronary revascularization participating in the randomized EPHESUS (Epleronone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study) trial were analyzed. TIMI risk score was calculated at baseline, and its predictive value was evaluated using C-indexes from Cox models. The increase in reclassification of other variables in addition to TIMI score was assessed using the net reclassification index. TIMI risk score had a poor predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality (C-index values at 30 days and 1 year ≤0.67) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI; C-index values ≤0.60). Among TIMI score items, diabetes/hypertension/angina, heart rate >100 beats/min, and systolic blood pressure model, lower LVEF, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and previous MI were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The predictive accuracy of this model, which included LVEF and eGFR, was fair for both 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (C-index values ranging from 0.71 to 0.75). In conclusion, TIMI risk score demonstrates poor discrimination in predicting mortality or recurrent MI in patients with STEMI with reduced LVEF. LVEF and eGFR are major factors that should not be ignored by predictive risk scores in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluating Transcription Factor Activity Changes by Scoring Unexplained Target Genes in Expression Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Berchtold

    Full Text Available Several methods predict activity changes of transcription factors (TFs from a given regulatory network and measured expression data. But available gene regulatory networks are incomplete and contain many condition-dependent regulations that are not relevant for the specific expression measurement. It is not known which combination of active TFs is needed to cause a change in the expression of a target gene. A method to systematically evaluate the inferred activity changes is missing. We present such an evaluation strategy that indicates for how many target genes the observed expression changes can be explained by a given set of active TFs. To overcome the problem that the exact combination of active TFs needed to activate a gene is typically not known, we assume a gene to be explained if there exists any combination for which the predicted active TFs can possibly explain the observed change of the gene. We introduce the i-score (inconsistency score, which quantifies how many genes could not be explained by the set of activity changes of TFs. We observe that, even for these minimal requirements, published methods yield many unexplained target genes, i.e. large i-scores. This holds for all methods and all expression datasets we evaluated. We provide new optimization methods to calculate the best possible (minimal i-score given the network and measured expression data. The evaluation of this optimized i-score on a large data compendium yields many unexplained target genes for almost every case. This indicates that currently available regulatory networks are still far from being complete. Both the presented Act-SAT and Act-A* methods produce optimal sets of TF activity changes, which can be used to investigate the difficult interplay of expression and network data. A web server and a command line tool to calculate our i-score and to find the active TFs associated with the minimal i-score is available from

  15. Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. (United States)

    Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N


    A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright

  16. Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through Aerobic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper focused on the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk factors, through aerobic exercises. The central argument here is that through exercise there is the tendency for increased strength of the heart muscles. When this is the case, what follows is a reduction in body weight and ultimately less risk on the ...

  17. Risk factors in prevention of drug dependences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orosova, Ol'ga; Gajdosova, Beata; Madarasova-Geckova, Andrea; Van Dijk, Jitse P.


    The study presents the state-of-art of knowledge of risk factors of drug use as a form of risk behaviour in adolescents in individual, interpersonal, and environmental domain (family, school, society). The attention is paid to general deviation syndrome and to the construct of general tendency to

  18. Risk factors for QTc interval prolongation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemskerk, Charlotte P.M.; Pereboom, Marieke; van Stralen, Karlijn; Berger, Florine A.; van den Bemt, Patricia M.L.A.; Kuijper, Aaf F.M.; van der Hoeven, Ruud T M; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K.; Becker, Matthijs L


    Purpose: Prolongation of the QTc interval may result in Torsade de Pointes, a ventricular arrhythmia. Numerous risk factors for QTc interval prolongation have been described, including the use of certain drugs. In clinical practice, there is much debate about the management of the risks involved. In

  19. Osteoporosis Risk Factors in Eighth Grade Students. (United States)

    Lysen, Victoria C.; Walker, Robert


    Presents findings from food frequency questionnaires and surveys of 138 Midwestern eighth-grade student-parent pairs. The study examined the incidence of modifiable and nonmodifiable osteoporosis risk factors and compared gender differences. Data analysis indicated that many adolescents possessed several modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors…

  20. Genetic risk scores link body fat distribution with specific cardiometabolic profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, Mathilde; Sandholt, Camilla H; Andersson Galijatovic, Ehm Astrid


    , including fasting serum triglyceride (β = 0.98% mmol/L, P = 3.33 × 10(-) (8) ) and Matsuda index (β = -0.74%, P = 1.29 × 10(-) (4) ). No similar associations for Clusters 2 and 3 were found. The three clusters showed different patterns of association with waist circumference, hip circumference, and height......OBJECTIVE: Forty-nine known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associating with body mass index (BMI)-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHR) (WHRadjBMI) were recently suggested to cluster into three groups with different associations to cardiometabolic traits. Genetic risk scores of the clusters...... risk scores and anthropometry and blood samples at fasting and during an oral glucose tolerance test were tested. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS: Cluster 1 associated with an increased risk of diabetes (HR = 1.05, P = 2.74 × 10(-) (4) ) and with a poor metabolic profile...

  1. [Association between risk factors of cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis in postmenopausal Chinese women]. (United States)

    Xue, Wen-qiong; Deng, Juan; Li, Jing-jing; Liu, Jing; He, Li-ping; Chen, Zong-qiu; Chen, Yu-ming


    To assess the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and osteoporosis. 2202 women aged 50 - 73 years were included in this cross-sectional study from the communities in Guangzhou, from July 2008 to January 2010. Cardiovascular risk factors including age, years since menopause, physical activity, anthropometrics, body composition, blood pressure, fasting serum lipids, glucose and uric acid, intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid artery were assessed. Ultrasonic bone density (speed of sound) at the radius and tibia were determined. Osteoporosis was defined as T-score ≤ -2.5. Common factors for the cardiovascular risk factors were extracted using the factor analysis method. Eight common factors representing obesity, lean mass, blood triglycerides and uric acid, cholesterol, age, blood pressure, IMT and physical activity were extracted. Data from the Multivariate logistic regression showed a dose-dependent association of greater scores of age and IMT factors and lower score of lean mass factor with the increased risk of osteoporosis at the radius and tibia. As compared with the bottom quartile, the OR (95%CI) of radius and tibia osteoporosis were 0.62 (0.44 - 0.88) and 0.62 (0.48 - 0.80) for lean mass factor, 4.02 (2.72 - 5.94) and 3.68 (2.81 - 4.82) for age factor, 1.41 (1.00 - 2.00) and 1.54 (1.19 - 2.00) for IMT factors, respectively. Moreover, greater blood pressure score was associated with higher risk of radius osteoporosis while the higher obese score, was correlated with the increased risk of tibia osteoporosis. The cardiovascular-related risk factors of greater IMT, obesity, blood pressure and lower lean mass scores were associated with increased osteoporosis risks while called for more concern among the Chinese women.

  2. Risk Factors for Homelessness Among US Veterans (United States)

    Tsai, Jack; Rosenheck, Robert A.


    Homelessness among US veterans has been a focus of research for over 3 decades. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, this is the first systematic review to summarize research on risk factors for homelessness among US veterans and to evaluate the evidence for these risk factors. Thirty-one studies published from 1987 to 2014 were divided into 3 categories: more rigorous studies, less rigorous studies, and studies comparing homeless veterans with homeless nonveterans. The strongest and most consistent risk factors were substance use disorders and mental illness, followed by low income and other income-related factors. There was some evidence that social isolation, adverse childhood experiences, and past incarceration were also important risk factors. Veterans, especially those who served since the advent of the all-volunteer force, were at greater risk for homelessness than other adults. Homeless veterans were generally older, better educated, and more likely to be male, married/have been married, and to have health insurance coverage than other homeless adults. More studies simultaneously addressing premilitary, military, and postmilitary risk factors for veteran homelessness are needed. This review identifies substance use disorders, mental illness, and low income as targets for policies and programs in efforts to end homelessness among veterans. PMID:25595171

  3. Risk factors predisposing to congenital heart defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ul Haq, Faheem; Jalil, Fatima; Hashmi, Saman; Jumani, Maliha Iqbal; Imdad, Aamer; Jabeen, Mehnaz; Hashmi, Javad Tauseef; Irfan, Furqan Bin; Imran, Muhammad; Atiq, Mehnaz


    Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with multiple risk factors, consanguinity may be one such significant factor. The role of consanguinity in the etiology of CHD is supported by inbreeding studies, which demonstrate an autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance of some congenital heart defects. This study was done to find out the risk factors for CHD. A case-control study was done on pediatric patients at a tertiary care hospital, Aga Khan University Hospital, located in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 500 patients, 250 cases and 250 controls were included in the study. Amongst the 250 cases (i.e. those diagnosed with CHD), 122 patients (48.8%) were born of consanguineous marriages while in the controls (i.e. non-CHD) only 72 patients (28.9%) showed a consanguinity amongst parents. On multivariate analysis, consanguinity emerged as an independent risk factor for CHD; adjusted odds ratio 2.59 (95% C. I. 1.73 - 3.87). Other risk factors included low birth weight, maternal co-morbidities, family history of CHD and first born child. On the other hand, medications used by the mother during the index pregnancy, maternal age and gender of the child did not significantly increase the risk of developing CHD. Analyses of our results show that parental consanguinity, family history of CHD, maternal co-morbidities, first born child and low birth weight are independent risk factors for CHD

  4. Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study. (United States)

    Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J


    To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score score score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score score matching, the risk of an Apgar score Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. External Validity of a Risk Stratification Score Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiation Therapy After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases. (United States)

    Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Symanowski, James T; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Burri, Stuart H; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Crocker, Ian R; Prabhu, Roshan S


    A scoring system using pretreatment factors was recently published for predicting the risk of early (≤6 months) distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. Four risk factors were identified: (1) lack of prior WBRT; (2) melanoma or breast histologic features; (3) multiple brain metastases; and (4) total volume of brain metastases external patient population. We reviewed the records of 247 patients with 388 brain metastases treated with SRS between 2010 at 2013 at Levine Cancer Institute. The Press (Emory) risk score was calculated and applied to the validation cohort population, and subsequent risk groups were analyzed using cumulative incidence. The low-risk (LR) group had a significantly lower risk of early DBF than did the high-risk (HR) group (22.6% vs 44%, P=.004), but there was no difference between the HR and intermediate-risk (IR) groups (41.2% vs 44%, P=.79). Total lesion volume externally valid, but the model was able to stratify between 2 levels (LR and not-LR [combined IR and HR]) for early (≤6 months) DBF. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent cohorts. Further refinement of this scoring system with molecular information and in additional contemporary patient populations is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Cerebral Palsy in Children as a Risk Factor for Malnutrition. (United States)

    Perenc, Lidia; Przysada, Grzegorz; Trzeciak, Jadwiga


    The main aim of this study was to determine some malnutrition risk factors among children with cerebral palsy (CP). Children with CP often require the assistance of physical therapy centers. Experience suggests that, apart from physical disabilities, this group often suffers from malnutrition. Data were gathered in the hospital among 128 childr