WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk factor estimation

  1. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  2. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  3. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  4. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  5. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  6. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  7. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  8. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  9. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  10. Estimates of cancer deaths attributable to behavioural risk factors in Italy, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, Francesca; Carreras, Giulia; Grassi, Tommaso; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    "Non-communicable diseases cause more than 80% of deaths in europe and, among these, 20% are caused by cancer. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered in the italian national programme "Guadagnare salute" (Gaining health), such as tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use, are amongst the major causes of cancer deaths. The aims of this study was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to lifestyle factors for italy and for italian regions in 2013 and to describe its variation in relation to the regional prevalence of risk factors exposure. For Italy and for each italian region, deaths attributable to lifestyle factors were estimated using the methodology of the Global Burden of disease (GBd) study. italian mortality data of 2013 and risks attributable to these lifestyle factors for each cancer site for italy from the GBd study were used. Prevalence of exposure to lifestyles in Italy and in each Italian Region was collected for the period 2008-2013. In 2013, at least 66,605 cancer deaths in italy were attributable to lifestyle factors, accounting for 37.9% of all cancer deaths: 34.1% of cancer deaths in men and 9.0% in women were attributable to smoking; in men and women, respectively, 3.3% and 2.8% were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption; 5.3 % and 6.7% to overweight; 10.1% and 7.1% to dietary risk factors; 1.9% and 4.2% to physical inactivity. A moderate variability of percentage of deaths attributable to modifi able lifestyle factors by region was also detected due to different prevalence values of exposure to lifestyles occurred in last decades. At least 45,000 cancer deaths in men and 21,000 in women occurred in 2013 were attributable to modifi able risk factors, whose prevalence varied by region and which could be averted through the implementation of primary prevention interventions."

  11. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  12. The current contribution of molecular factors to risk estimation in neuroblastoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthold, F; Sahin, K; Hero, B; Christiansen, H; Gehring, M; Harms, D; Horz, S; Lampert, F; Schwab, M; Terpe, J

    1997-10-01

    The association of molecular characteristics with prognosis has been reported, but not their relationship with each other and their impact in the context of known clinical risk factors. In this study, data of 1249 consecutive intent-to-treat-neuroblastoma patients with more than 1 year follow-up were examined by multivariate analysis using loglinear and Cox proportional hazard regression models on a stage-related basis (stages 1-3: 600, 4S: 116, 4: 533). In a first step, risk factors were identified from 18 selected clinical variables, and risk groups defined. The second step investigated whether molecular characteristics (MYCN, LOH 1p, del 1p, CD44, N-ras, NGF-R, bcl-2, APO-1 (CD95)) contributed additional prognostic information to the model. The loglinear model demonstrated several interactions between clinical factors. By the Cox regression model, seven independent clinical risk factors were found for stages 1-3, seven for stage 4 and two for stage 4S. By subsequent introduction of all molecular variables, MYCN amplification only added significant prognostic information to the clinical factors in localised and stage 4 neuroblastoma. The models allowed the definition of risk groups for stages 1-3 patients by age (e beta = 5.09) and MYCN (e beta = 4.26), for stage 4 by MYCN (e beta = 2.78) and number of symptoms (e beta = 2.44) and for stage 4S by platelet count (e beta = 3.91) and general condition (e beta = 2.99). Molecular factors and in particular MYCN contribute significantly to risk estimation. In conjunction with clinical factors, they are powerful tools to define risk groups in neuroblastoma.

  13. Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

    2018-01-01

    Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  15. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

    2016-07-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  16. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  17. Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP, capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

  18. Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuoyuan Zheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies.

  19. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  20. Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

    2015-07-01

    Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

  1. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  2. Pattern of Road Traffic Injuries in Rural Bangladesh: Burden Estimates and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ul Baset, Md Kamran; Rahman, Aminur; Alonge, Olakunle; Agrawal, Priyanka; Wadhwaniya, Shirin; Rahman, Fazlur

    2017-11-07

    Globally, road traffic injury (RTI) causes 1.3 million deaths annually. Almost 90% of all RTI deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. RTI is one of the leading causes of death in Bangladesh; the World Health Organization estimated that it kills over 21,000 people in the country annually. This study describes the current magnitude and risk factors of RTI for different age groups in rural Bangladesh. A household census was carried out in 51 unions of seven sub-districts situated in the north and central part of Bangladesh between June and November 2013, covering 1.2 million individuals. Trained data collectors collected information on fatal and nonfatal RTI events through face-to-face interviews using a set of structured pre-tested questionnaires. The recall periods for fatal and non-fatal RTI were one year and six months, respectively. The mortality and morbidity rates due to RTI were 6.8/100,000 population/year and 889/100,000 populations/six months, respectively. RTI mortality and morbidity rates were significantly higher among males compared to females. Deaths and morbidities due to RTI were highest among those in the 25-64 years age group. A higher proportion of morbidity occurred among vehicle passengers (34%) and pedestrians (18%), and more than one-third of the RTI mortality occurred among pedestrians. Twenty percent of all nonfatal RTIs were classified as severe injuries. RTI is a major public health issue in rural Bangladesh. Immediate attention is needed to reduce preventable deaths and morbidities in rural Bangladesh.

  3. Social and economic factors of the natural risk growth: estimation of the Russian regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2003-04-01

    Òhe vulnerability of the population and economy territorial complexes (PETC) to the influence of unfavorable and dangerous natural processes and events is determined not only by the physical parameters of natural hazards in the given region, but also by economic and social peculiarities of the PETC by itself. It depends on economy type, on PETC’s age, structure and dimensions as well as on degree of its participation in the territorial division of labor. PETC would be more vulnerable to the natural hazards impact if its population density, concentration of the industrial capacities (especially of the objects that additionally create the potential danger of the man-caused catastrophes such as nuclear-power stations, chemical enterprises, oil refineries and so on), concentration of transport and other means of communication, the technological complexity, the originality of the objects included in it as well as the originality of PETC by itself would be higher. The PETC with the unfavorable socio-political and ecological situation and underdeveloped management structures are more vulnerable. The estimation of regions by PETC vulnerability degree to the natural hazards were marked out on a base of data about the actual distribution of the natural hazards in Russia and analysis of the economic indices of the Russian Federation subjects. Among the economic indexes the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), population density, road density, the degree of appraisal depreciation of the fixed assets, the land cultivation degree of the territory, forest share and so on were taken into account. As the analysis showed, the economic and social factors of the natural risk growth are active in the majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. Such a situation demands the increased attention of state and local authorities to this problem for lowering the economic and social constituents of the growth of natural hazards.

  4. Drawbacks of the use of indirect estimates of renal function to evaluate the effect of risk factors on renal function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhave, JC; Gansevoort, RT; Hillege, HL; De Zeeuw, D; Curhan, GC; De Jong, PE

    Many epidemiologic studies presently aim to evaluate the effect of risk factors on renal function. As direct measurement of renal function is cumbersome to perform, epidentiologic studies generally use an indirect estimate of renal function. The consequences of using different methods of renal

  5. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Anne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". Methods Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25–64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as US$ per capita per year. Results 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%. Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg or treatment of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (≥6.2 mmol/l; 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (2 and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to US $45.6, i.e. $11.2 for high blood pressure, $3.8 for diabetes, and $30.6 for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia. Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to $22.6. Conclusion High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

  6. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  7. [Estimation of relation between homocysteine concentration and selected lipid parameters and adhesion molecules concentration in children with atherosclerosis risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierakowska-Fijałek, Anna; Baj, Zbigniew; Kaczmarek, Piotr; Stepień, Mariusz; Rysz, Jacek

    2008-10-01

    Atherosclerosis begins in childhood. At present among numerous risk factors of atherosclerosis the role of hiperhomocysteinemia in development of cardiovascular heart disease is taken under consideration. Atherogenic effect of homocystein is related to its cytotoxin action, conducting to endothelial dysfunction and damage. It is correlated with increase of the lipid levels in the blood serum and change of expression of the soluble forms of adhesion molecules. The aim of this study was to estimate relations between the homocystein serum concentration, expression of the selected adhesion molecules and the lipid levels in the blood serum in children with atherosclerosis risk factors. The group consisted of 670 children, 76 of them had atherosclerosis risk factors. In further examination 48 children have taken a part, whose parents were agreed for theirs participation in the program. The comparative group composed of 25 children without the risk factors. We determined total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL cholesterol fraction (LDL-C), HDL cholesterol fraction (HDL-C), serum homocysteine concentration (Hcy), the expression of the soluble forms of adhesion molecules (sCAM): sP-selectin and sVCAM-1 (vascular cell adhesion molecule-1). Obesity, hypertension and lipid disorders in the shape of higher concentration of TC, LDL-C, TG and lower HDL-C were the most frequent risk factors in the investigated children. No significant differences in serum homocysteine concentration were observed between the investigated groups. However, its concentration was significantly higher in children with two atherosclerosis risk factors. No significant differences in expression of s-VCAM-1 were observed in the investigated groups, concentration of sP-selectin was significantly higher in children with atherosclerosis risk factors (phomocysteine and chosen adhesion molecules in children with atherosclerosis risk factors might potentially constitute the marker of early

  8. Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Nematollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

  9. Are risk estimates biased in follow-up studies of psychosocial factors with low base-line participation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersen Johan

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low participation in population-based follow-up studies addressing psychosocial risk factors may cause biased estimation of health risk but the issue has seldom been examined. We compared risk estimates for selected health outcomes among respondents and the entire source population. Methods In a Danish cohort study of associations between psychosocial characteristics of the work environment and mental health, the source population of public service workers comprised 10,036 employees in 502 work units of which 4,489 participated (participation rate 45%. Data on the psychosocial work environment were obtained for each work unit by calculating the average of the employee self-reports. The average values were assigned all employees and non-respondent at the work unit. Outcome data on sick leave and prescription of antidepressant medication during the follow-up period (1.4.2007-31.12.2008 was obtained by linkage to national registries. Results Respondents differed at baseline from non-respondents by gender, age, employment status, sick leave and hospitalization for affective disorders. However, risk estimates for sick leave and prescription of antidepressant medication, during follow-up, based on the subset of participants, did only differ marginally from risk estimates based upon the entire population. Conclusions We found no indications that low participation at baseline distorts the estimates of associations between the work unit level of psychosocial work environment and mental health outcomes during follow-up. These results may not be valid for other exposures or outcomes.

  10. Metabolic risk-factor clustering estimation in children: to draw a line across pediatric metabolic syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brambilla, P; Lissau, I; Flodmark, C-E

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The diagnostic criteria of the metabolic syndrome (MS) have been applied in studies of obese adults to estimate the metabolic risk-associated with obesity, even though no general consensus exists concerning its definition and clinical value. We reviewed the current literature on the MS......, focusing on those studies that used the MS diagnostic criteria to analyze children, and we observed extreme heterogeneity for the sets of variables and cutoff values chosen. OBJECTIVES: To discuss concerns regarding the use of the existing definition of the MS (as defined in adults) in children...... derived from a child's family and personal history; the lack of consensus on insulin levels, lipid parameters, markers of inflammation or steato-hepatitis; the lack of an additive relevant effect of the MS definition to obesity per se. We propose the adoption of 10 evidence-based items from which...

  11. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  12. Risk factors for chronic undernutrition among children in India: Estimating relative importance, population attributable risk and fractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsi, Daniel J; Mejía-Guevara, Iván; Subramanian, S V

    2016-05-01

    Nearly 40% of the world's stunted children live in India and the prevalence of undernutrition has been persistently high in recent decades. Given numerous available interventions for reducing undernutrition in children, it is not clear of the relative importance of each within a multifactorial framework. We assess the simultaneous contribution of 15 known risk factors for child chronic undernutrition in India. Data are from the 3rd Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey undertaken in 2005-2006. The study population consisted of children aged 6-59 months [n = 26,842 (stunting/low height-for-age), n = 27,483 (underweight/low weight-for-age)]. Risk factors examined for their association with undernutrition were: vitamin A supplementation, vaccination, use of iodized salt, household air quality, improved sanitary facilities, safe disposal of stools, improved drinking water, prevalence of infectious disease, initiation of breastfeeding, dietary diversity, age at marriage, maternal BMI, height, education, and household wealth. Age/sex-adjusted and multivariable adjusted effect sizes (odds ratios) were calculated for risk factors along with Population Attributable Risks (PAR) and Fractions (PAF) using logistic regression. In the mutually adjusted models, the five most important predictors of childhood stunting/underweight were short maternal stature, mother having no education, households in lowest wealth quintile, poor dietary diversity, and maternal underweight. These five factors had a combined PAR of 67.2% (95% CI: 63.3-70.7) and 69.7% (95% CI: 66.3-72.8) for stunting and underweight, respectively. The remaining factors were associated with a combined PAR of 11.7% (95% CI: 6.0-17.4) and 15.1% (95% CI: 8.9-21.3) for stunting and underweight, respectively. Implementing strategies focused on broader progress on social circumstances and infrastructural domains as well as investments in nutrition specific

  13. Local Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Segmental Transarterial Chemoembolization: Risk Estimates Based on Multiple Prognostic Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Seung Hyun; Cho, Yun Ku; Ahn, Yong Sik; Park, Yoon Ok; Kim, Jae Kyun; Chung, Jin Wook

    2007-01-01

    To determine the prognostic factors for local recurrence of nodular hepatocellular carcinoma after segmental transarterial chemoembolization. Seventy-four nodular hepatocellular carcinoma tumors ≤5 cm were retrospectively analyzed for local recurrence after segmental transarterial chemoembolization using follow-up CT images (median follow-up of 17 months, 4 77 months in range). The tumors were divided into four groups (IA, IB, IIA, and IIB) according to whether the one-month follow-up CT imaging, after segmental transarterial chemoembolization, showed homogeneous (Group I) or inhomogeneous (Group II) iodized oil accumulation, or whether the tumors were located within the liver segment (Group A) or in a segmental border zone (Group B). Comparison of tumor characteristics between Group IA and the other three groups was performed using the chi-square test. Local recurrence rates were compared among the groups using the Kaplan-Meier estimation and log rank test. Local tumor recurrence occurred in 19 hepatocellular carcinoma tumors (25.7%). There were: 28, 18, 17, and 11 tumors in Group IA, IB, IIA, and IIB, respectively. One of 28 (3.6%) tumors in Group IA, and 18 of 46 (39.1%) tumors in the other three groups showed local recurrence. Comparisons between Group IA and the other three groups showed that the tumor characteristics were similar. One-, two-, and three-year estimated local recurrence rates in Group IA were 0%, 11.1%, and 11.1%, respectively. The difference between Group IA and the other three groups was statistically significant (p 0.000). An acceptably low rate of local recurrence was observed for small or intermediate nodular tumors located within the liver segment with homogeneous iodized oil accumulation

  14. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  15. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  16. Estimating Risk Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Aswath Damodaran

    1999-01-01

    Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

  17. Radiation in space: risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

  18. The need to estimate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1980-01-01

    In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

  19. Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tice, Jeffrey A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Ichikawa, Laura; Barlow, William E.; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2009-01-01

    Background Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography. Objective To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density. Design Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort. Setting Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Patients 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Measurements Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories. Results During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years. Limitation The model has only modest ability to discriminate between women who will develop breast cancer and those who will not. Conclusion A breast cancer prediction model that incorporates routinely reported measures of breast density can estimate 5-year risk for invasive breast cancer. Its accuracy needs to be further evaluated in independent populations before it can be recommended for clinical use. PMID:18316752

  20. Toxoplasma gondii infection in Kyrgyzstan: seroprevalence, risk factor analysis, and estimate of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulnara Minbaeva

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8-7.8 (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9-6.5, and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5-21.7 (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1-19.3, respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked

  1. Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busch Michael P

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is prevalent and often causes hepatic fibrosis, which can progress to cirrhosis and cause liver cancer or liver failure. Study of fibrosis progression often relies on imputing the time of infection, often as the reported age of first injection drug use. We sought to examine the accuracy of such imputation and implications for modeling factors that influence progression rates. Methods We analyzed cross-sectional data on hepatitis C antibody status and reported risk factor histories from two large studies, the Women's Interagency HIV Study and the Urban Health Study, using modern survival analysis methods for current status data to model past infection risk year by year. We compared fitted distributions of past infection risk to reported age of first injection drug use. Results Although injection drug use appeared to be a very strong risk factor, models for both studies showed that many subjects had considerable probability of having been infected substantially before or after their reported age of first injection drug use. Persons reporting younger age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected after, and persons reporting older age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected before. Conclusion In cross-sectional studies of fibrosis progression where date of HCV infection is estimated from risk factor histories, modern methods such as multiple imputation should be used to account for the substantial uncertainty about when infection occurred. The models presented here can provide the inputs needed by such methods. Using reported age of first injection drug use as the time of infection in studies of fibrosis progression is likely to produce a spuriously strong association of younger age of infection with slower rate of progression.

  2. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  3. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  4. Estimation of the prevalence and distribution of HPV genotypes and identification of related risk factors among Turkish women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Kulhan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study : The present study aims to estimate the prevalence and distribution of HPV genotypes and identify related risk factors among Turkish women. Material and methods : 11 624 Turkish women attending our gynaecological clinic and expressing a desire for access to cervical cancer screening were assessed during the years 2014–2016. Cervical specimens were collected and transported using the HC2 HPV DNA Collection Device (consisting of a cervical brush and digene Specimen Transport Medium. Results : Among these 11 624 individuals, positive HPV test results were obtained for 325 (2.79%, and negative results were observed for 11 299 (97.2%. The vast majority of patients were between the 3rd and 5th decades and the mean age of the patients was 44 ±9.12 (range 27–66. Among the HPV-positive women, 205 were positive for a single HPV type (205/325 = 63.1% of HPV infections; 205/11624 = 1.76% of all samples and 120 were positive for multiple types (120/325 = 36.9% of HPV infections; 120/11624 = 1.03% of all samples. The four most prevalent high-risk types were HPV 16, 31, 51 and 52, with frequencies of 11.25%, 7.83%, 6.06% and 3.16%, respectively. Conclusions : There appears to be geographic variation in the distribution of HPV genotypes. In this study, the four most prevalent high-risk types were HPV 16, 31, 51 and 52, with frequencies of 11.25%, 7.83%, 6.06% and 3.16%, respectively.

  5. Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S

    2012-05-01

    To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

  6. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  7. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  8. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pletcher Mark J

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  9. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  10. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  11. Renal failure deaths and their risk factors in India 2001-13: nationally representative estimates from the Million Death Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dare, Anna J; Fu, Sze Hang; Patra, Jayadeep; Rodriguez, Peter S; Thakur, J S; Jha, Prabhat

    2017-01-01

    Renal failure represents a growing but mostly undocumented cause of premature mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. We investigated changes in adult renal failure mortality and its key risk factors in India using the nationally representative Million Death Study. In this cross-sectional analysis of population-based data, two trained physicians independently assigned underlying causes to 150 018 deaths at ages 15-69 years from a nationally-representative mortality survey in India for 2001-03 and 2010-13, using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th version (ICD-10). We applied the age-specific proportion of renal failure deaths for the 2010-13 period to the 2015 UN estimates of total deaths in India and calculated age-standardised death rates for renal failure by rural or urban residence, state, and age group. We used proportional mortality of renal deaths (cases) to injuries (controls) to calculate the odds of renal death in the presence of different comorbidities and stratified risks by decade of birth. In 2001-03, 2·1% of total deaths among 15-69 year olds were from renal failure (1266 [2·2%] of 58 871; unweighted). By 2010-13, the proportion of deaths from renal failure had risen to 2·9% (2943 [3·2%] of 91 147; unweighted) of total deaths and corresponding to 136 000 renal failure deaths (range 108 000-150 000) of 4 688 000 total deaths nationally in 2015. Age-standardised renal death rates were highest in the southern and eastern states, particularly among adults aged 45-69 years in 2010-13. Diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease were all significantly associated with increased renal failure deaths, with diabetes the strongest predictor-odds ratio (OR) vs control 9·2 (95% CI 6·7-12·7) in 2001-03, rising to 15·1 (12·6-18·1) in 2010-13. In the 2010-13 study population, the diabetes to non-diabetes OR was twice as large in adults born in the 1970s (25·5, 95% CI 17·6-37·1) as in those individuals

  12. Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Fouchet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

  13. An Estimate of Attributable Cases of Alzheimer Disease and Vascular Dementia due to Modifiable Risk Factors: The Impact of Primary Prevention in Europe and in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Mayer

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Up to 53.7% of all cases of dementia are assumed to be due to Alzheimer disease (AD, while 15.8% are considered to be due to vascular dementia (VaD. In Europe, about 3 million cases of AD could be due to 7 potentially modifiable risk factors: diabetes, midlife hypertension and/or obesity, physical inactivity, depression, smoking, and low educational level. Aims: To estimate the number of VaD cases in Europe and the number of AD and VaD cases in Italy attributable to these 7 potentially modifiable risk factors. Methods: Assuming the nonindependence of the 7 risk factors, the adjusted combined population attributable risk (PAR was estimated for AD and VaD. Results: In Europe, adjusted combined PAR was 31.4% for AD and 37.8% for VaD. The total number of attributable cases was 3,033,000 for AD and 873,000 for VaD. In Italy, assuming a 20% reduction of the prevalence of each risk factor, adjusted combined PAR decreased from 45.2 to 38.9% for AD and from 53.1 to 46.6% for VaD, implying a 6.4 and 6.5% reduction in the prevalence of AD and VaD, respectively. Conclusion: A relevant reduction of AD and VaD cases in Europe and Italy could be obtained through primary prevention.

  14. An Estimate of Attributable Cases of Alzheimer Disease and Vascular Dementia due to Modifiable Risk Factors: The Impact of Primary Prevention in Europe and in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Flavia; Di Pucchio, Alessandra; Lacorte, Eleonora; Bacigalupo, Ilaria; Marzolini, Fabrizio; Ferrante, Gianluigi; Minardi, Valentina; Masocco, Maria; Canevelli, Marco; Di Fiandra, Teresa; Vanacore, Nicola

    2018-01-01

    Up to 53.7% of all cases of dementia are assumed to be due to Alzheimer disease (AD), while 15.8% are considered to be due to vascular dementia (VaD). In Europe, about 3 million cases of AD could be due to 7 potentially modifiable risk factors: diabetes, midlife hypertension and/or obesity, physical inactivity, depression, smoking, and low educational level. To estimate the number of VaD cases in Europe and the number of AD and VaD cases in Italy attributable to these 7 potentially modifiable risk factors. Assuming the nonindependence of the 7 risk factors, the adjusted combined population attributable risk (PAR) was estimated for AD and VaD. In Europe, adjusted combined PAR was 31.4% for AD and 37.8% for VaD. The total number of attributable cases was 3,033,000 for AD and 873,000 for VaD. In Italy, assuming a 20% reduction of the prevalence of each risk factor, adjusted combined PAR decreased from 45.2 to 38.9% for AD and from 53.1 to 46.6% for VaD, implying a 6.4 and 6.5% reduction in the prevalence of AD and VaD, respectively. A relevant reduction of AD and VaD cases in Europe and Italy could be obtained through primary prevention.

  15. Impact of helminth diagnostic test performance on estimation of risk factors and outcomes in HIV-positive adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael B Arndt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Traditional methods using microscopy for the detection of helminth infections have limited sensitivity. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR assays enhance detection of helminths, particularly low burden infections. However, differences in test performance may modify the ability to detect associations between helminth infection, risk factors, and sequelae. We compared these associations using microscopy and PCR. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was nested within a randomized clinical trial conducted at 3 sites in Kenya. We performed microscopy and real-time multiplex PCR for the stool detection and quantification of Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus, Ancylostoma duodenale, Strongyloides stercoralis, and Schistosoma species. We utilized regression to evaluate associations between potential risk factors or outcomes and infection as detected by either method. RESULTS: Of 153 HIV-positive adults surveyed, 55(36.0% and 20(13.1% were positive for one or more helminth species by PCR and microscopy, respectively (p<0.001. PCR-detected infections were associated with farming (Prevalence Ratio 1.57, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.40, communal water source (PR 3.80, 95% CI: 1.01, 14.27, and no primary education (PR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.33, whereas microscopy-detected infections were not associated with any risk factors under investigation. Microscopy-detected infections were associated with significantly lower hematocrit and hemoglobin (means of -3.56% and -0.77 g/dl and a 48% higher risk of anemia (PR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.88 compared to uninfected. Such associations were absent for PCR-detected infections unless infection intensity was considered, Infections diagnosed with either method were associated with increased risk of eosinophilia (PCR PR 2.42, 95% CI: 1.02, 5.76; microscopy PR 2.92, 95% CI: 1.29, 6.60. CONCLUSION: Newer diagnostic methods, including PCR, improve the detection of helminth infections. This heightened sensitivity may improve the

  16. Why factors rooted in the family may solely explain the urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2006-01-01

    Many studies have identified urban-rural differences in schizophrenia risk. The underlying cause(s) may hypothetically include toxic exposures, diet, infections, and selective migration. In a recent study, we concluded that some of the cause(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences...... explain the urban-rural differences. Although other potential explanations for these differences exist, we focus on this hypothesis as it has not previously been discussed in detail. To determine the cause(s) responsible for the urban-rural differences, we need direct measurements of genetic and....../or environmental factors related to urban life...

  17. Impact of varying the definition of myopia on estimates of prevalence and associations with risk factors: time for an approach that serves research, practice and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberland, Phillippa M; Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Rahi, Jugnoo S

    2018-02-03

    Refractive error is an increasing global public health concern that requires robust and reliable research to identify modifiable risk factors and provide accurate estimates of population burden. We investigated the impact of reclassification of individuals when using different threshold values of spherical equivalent (SE) to define myopia, on estimates of frequency, distribution and associations with risk factors, to inform current international initiatives to standardise definitions. A random sample of 1985 individuals from the 1958 British birth cohort, at age 44, had autorefraction and self-reported on educational attainment and social class.Refraction status assigned in three different models using SE: (A) moderate to high myopia -3 diopters (D) or more extreme (≤-3.00D), (B) hypermetropia +1.00D or more extreme (≥+1.00D) and (C) mild myopia using three different thresholds: -1.00D, -0.75D or -0.50D, hence reciprocal changes in definition of emmetropia. Frequency estimates and associations with risk factors altered significantly as the threshold value for myopia moved towards SE 0.0D: prevalence of mild myopia increased from 28% to 47%, the association with highest educational attainment attenuated and with higher social class strengthened, with changes in risk ratios of approximately 20%. Even small changes in the threshold definition of myopia (±0.25D) can significantly affect the conclusions of epidemiological studies, creating both false-positive and false-negative associations for specific risk factors. An international classification for refractive error, empirically evidenced and cognisant of the question(s) being addressed and the population(s) being studied, is needed to serve better translational research, practice and policy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Translation of risk factor estimates into on-farm interventions and their effect on Campylobacter broiler flock prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Helle Mølgaard; Nauta, Maarten; Rosenquist, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    population estimations using logistic regression. To obtain population estimates per country, the predicted prevalence values were multiplied by the frequencies (no. of farms) in a reference population based on data from the risk factor study and a large questionnaire. The latter was included to improve...... improve further when the results are integrated with costs of interventions in a cost effectiveness study. The approach was developed for Campylobacter in broiler flocks, but it can also be applied to other pathogens and other farm animals, given that the required data are available....

  19. Estimating the association between metabolic risk factors and marijuana use in U.S. adults using data from the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Christin Ann; Hay, Joel W

    2015-07-01

    More research is needed on the health effects of marijuana use. Results of previous studies indicate that marijuana could alleviate certain factors of metabolic syndrome, such as obesity. Data on 6281 persons from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005 to 2012 were used to estimate the effect of marijuana use on cardiometabolic risk factors. The reliability of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models was tested by replacing marijuana use as the risk factor of interest with alcohol and carbohydrate consumption. Instrumental variable methods were used to account for the potential endogeneity of marijuana use. OLS models show lower fasting insulin, insulin resistance, body mass index, and waist circumference in users compared with nonusers. However, when alcohol and carbohydrate intake substitute for marijuana use in OLS models, similar metabolic benefits are estimated. The Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests provide evidence of endogeneity of marijuana use in OLS models, but instrumental variables models do not yield significant estimates for marijuana use. These findings challenge the robustness of OLS estimates of a positive relationship between marijuana use and fasting insulin, insulin resistance, body mass index, and waist circumference. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

    2015-05-25

    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  1. Advantages of video questionnaire in estimating asthma prevalence and risk factors for school children: findings from an asthma survey in American Indian youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Fawn; Rhoades, Everett R; Tarpay, Martha; Eichner, June E

    2010-09-01

    The aims of the present study were to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of asthma among a sample of American Indian youth and to evaluate survey instruments used in determining asthma prevalence and risk factors. Three hundred and fifty-two adolescents aged 9 to 21 years enrolled in an Indian boarding school completed an asthma screening. The survey instruments were a written questionnaire and a video-illustrated questionnaire prepared from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), school health records, and a health questionnaire. Participants also underwent spirometry testing. The prevalence of self-reported asthma varied from 12.7% to 13.4% depending upon the instrument used and the questions asked. A history of hay fever, respiratory infections, and family history of asthma were found to be risk factors for asthma by all instruments. Female gender and living on a reservation were significantly associated with asthma by some, but not all, instruments. Airway obstruction was highly associated with one asthma symptom (wheeze) shown in the video questionnaire. Associations for most risk factors with asthma were strongest for the video questionnaire. The prevalence of self-reported asthma among these American Indian youth was similar to rates reported for other ethnic groups. The video-based questionnaire may be the most sensitive tool for identifying individuals at risk for asthma.

  2. Estimation of the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to modifiable risk factors and cost-effectiveness analysis of preventative interventions to reduce this burden in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martí Sebastián

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the primary cause of mortality and morbidity in Argentina representing 34.2% of deaths and 12.6% of potential years of life lost (PYLL. The aim of the study was to estimate the burden of acute coronary heart disease (CHD and stroke and the cost-effectiveness of preventative population-based and clinical interventions. Methods An epidemiological model was built incorporating prevalence and distribution of high blood pressure, high cholesterol, hyperglycemia, overweight and obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, obtained from the Argentine Survey of Risk Factors dataset. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF of each risk factor was estimated using relative risks from international sources. Total fatal and non-fatal events, PYLL and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY were estimated. Costs of event were calculated from local utilization databases and expressed in international dollars (I$. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER were estimated for six interventions: reducing salt in bread, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation, pharmacological therapy of high blood pressure, pharmacological therapy of high cholesterol, tobacco cessation therapy with bupropion, and a multidrug strategy for people with an estimated absolute risk > 20% in 10 years. Results An estimated total of 611,635 DALY was lost due to acute CHD and stroke for 2005. Modifiable risk factors explained 71.1% of DALY and more than 80% of events. Two interventions were cost-saving: lowering salt intake in the population through reducing salt in bread and multidrug therapy targeted to persons with an absolute risk above 20% in 10 years; three interventions had very acceptable ICERs: drug therapy for high blood pressure in hypertensive patients not yet undergoing treatment (I$ 2,908 per DALY saved, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation amongst smokers (I$ 3,186 per DALY saved, and lowering cholesterol with

  3. [Risk factors of schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  4. Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter; Lloyd, Patsy

    2011-02-01

    To estimate Toxocara infection rates by age, gender and ethnicity for US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). After initial analysis to account for missing data, a binary regression model is applied to obtain relative risks of Toxocara infection for 20,396 survey subjects. The regression incorporates interplay between demographic attributes (age, ethnicity and gender), family poverty and geographic context (region, metropolitan status). Prevalence estimates for counties are then made, distinguishing between subpopulations in poverty and not in poverty. Even after allowing for elevated infection risk associated with poverty, seropositivity is elevated among Black non-Hispanics and other ethnic groups. There are also distinct effects of region. When regression results are translated into county prevalence estimates, the main influences on variation in county rates are percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks and county poverty. For targeting prevention it is important to assess implications of national survey data for small area prevalence. Using data from NHANES, the study confirms that both individual level risk factors and geographic contextual factors affect chances of Toxocara infection.

  5. Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

    2011-07-01

    We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

  6. [Estimation of the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases mortality, life expectancy and the labor force lost in China in 2030].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X Y; Li, Y C; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Liu, S W; Qi, J L; Zhou, M G

    2017-12-06

    Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary

  7. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  8. Albuminuria and neck circumference are determinate factors of successful accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate in high cardiovascular risk patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Jen Hsiao

    Full Text Available Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR is used for diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD. The eGFR models based on serum creatinine or cystatin C are used more in clinical practice. Albuminuria and neck circumference are associated with CKD and may have correlations with eGFR.We explored the correlations and modelling formulates among various indicators such as serum creatinine, cystatin C, albuminuria, and neck circumference for eGFR.Cross-sectional study.We reviewed the records of patients with high cardiovascular risk from 2010 to 2011 in Taiwan. 24-hour urine creatinine clearance was used as the standard. We utilized a decision tree to select for variables and adopted a stepwise regression method to generate five models. Model 1 was based on only serum creatinine and was adjusted for age and gender. Model 2 added serum cystatin C, models 3 and 4 added albuminuria and neck circumference, respectively. Model 5 simultaneously added both albuminuria and neck circumference.Total 177 patients were recruited in this study. In model 1, the bias was 2.01 and its precision was 14.04. In model 2, the bias was reduced to 1.86 with a precision of 13.48. The bias of model 3 was 1.49 with a precision of 12.89, and the bias for model 4 was 1.74 with a precision of 12.97. In model 5, the bias could be lower to 1.40 with a precision of 12.53.In this study, the predicting ability of eGFR was improved after the addition of serum cystatin C compared to serum creatinine alone. The bias was more significantly reduced by the calculation of albuminuria. Furthermore, the model generated by combined albuminuria and neck circumference could provide the best eGFR predictions among these five eGFR models. Neck circumference can be investigated potentially in the further studies.

  9. A population-based national estimate of the prevalence and risk factors associated with hypertension in Rwanda: implications for prevention and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahimana, Marie-Rosette; Nyandwi, Alypio; Muhimpundu, Marie Aimee; Olu, Olushayo; Condo, Jeanine Umutesi; Rusanganwa, Andre; Koama, Jean Baptiste; Ngoc, Candide Tran; Gasherebuka, Jean Bosco; Ota, Martin O; Okeibunor, Joseph C

    2017-07-10

    Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular diseases and a growing public health problem in many developed and developing countries. However, population-based data to inform policy development are scarce in Rwanda. This nationally representative study aimed to determine population-based estimates of the prevalence and risk factors associated with hypertension in Rwanda. We conducted secondary epidemiological analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional population-based study to assess the risk factors for NCDs using the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance of non-communicable diseases (STEPS). Adjusted odds ratios at 95% confidence interval were used to establish association between hypertension, socio-demographic characteristics and health risk behaviors. Of the 7116 study participants, 62.8% were females and 38.2% were males. The mean age of study participants was 35.3 years (SD 12.5). The overall prevalence of hypertension was 15.3% (16.4% for males and 14.4% for females). Twenty two percent of hypertensive participants were previously diagnosed. A logistic regression model revealed that age (AOR: 8.02, 95% CI: 5.63-11.42, p Rwanda, suggesting the need for prevention and control interventions aimed at decreasing the incidence taking into consideration the risk factors documented in this and other similar studies.

  10. Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

    2018-07-01

    Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

  11. Risk factors for neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-06-01

    A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

  12. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  13. Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, B.R.R.

    1983-01-01

    This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

  14. National and subnational hypertension prevalence estimates for the Republic of Ireland: better outcome and risk factor data are needed to produce better prevalence estimates.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barron, Steve

    2014-01-10

    Hypertension is a global public health challenge. National prevalence estimates can conceal important differences in prevalence in subnational areas. This paper aims to develop a consistent set of national and subnational estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a country with limited data for subnational areas.

  15. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  16. Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, W.L.

    1976-01-01

    Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

  17. Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

    2016-01-01

    .73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...

  18. The risk factor of thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko

    1979-01-01

    For the purposes of radiation protection, the noteworthy risk of thyroid is carcinogenesis. The risk factor which ICRP presented in the publication-26 is 5 x 10 - 6 rem - 1 . This numerical value is based upon the estimated likelihood of inducing fatal thyroid cancer. On the other hand, the risk factor presented by the BEIR report is 4 x 10 - 6 yr - 1 . This value was decided after consideration of the risks of both fatal and non-fatal cancer of thyroid. The following features distinguished thyroid cancer from malignancy of other tissue from medical point of view. 1) A large difference between incidence and mortality in case of thyroid cancer is recognized, because the thyroid cancer could be successfully treated by surgical or radiological treatment. 2) The high prevalence of clinically silent tumor in thyroid gland has been reported. The incidence of thyroid cancer, therefore, is very dependent on methods of medical inspection. The prevalence of radiation induced thyroid cancer is modified by various factors such as age, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is very important factors such as ave, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is a very important factor in the estimation of accumulated total risk of thyroid malignancy. What is included in the risk caused by thyroid irradiation must be investigated. The risk of non-fatal cancer should be considered in the same way as that of fatal cancer. The dose-equivalent limit of thyroid in non-uniform irradiation caused by radioactive iodine is decided by the limit for non-stochastic effects. Therefore the further consideration of non-stochastic effects of thyroid is necessary. (author)

  19. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  20. Estimating the risk of cyanobacterial occurrence using an index integrating meteorological factors: application to drinking water production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndong, Mouhamed; Bird, David; Nguyen-Quang, Tri; de Boutray, Marie-Laure; Zamyadi, Arash; Vinçon-Leite, Brigitte; Lemaire, Bruno J; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

    2014-06-01

    The sudden appearance of toxic cyanobacteria (CB) blooms is still largely unpredictable in waters worldwide. Many post-hoc explanations for CB bloom occurrence relating to physical and biochemical conditions in lakes have been developed. As potentially toxic CB can accumulate in drinking water treatment plants and disrupt water treatment, there is a need for water treatment operators to determine whether conditions are favourable for the proliferation and accumulation of CB in source waters in order to adjust drinking water treatment accordingly. Thus, a new methodology with locally adaptable variables is proposed in order to have a single index, f(p), related to various environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed and direction. The index is used in conjunction with real time monitoring data to determine the probability of CB occurrence in relation to meteorological factors, and was tested at a drinking water intake in Missisquoi Bay, a shallow transboundary bay in Lake Champlain, Québec, Canada. These environmental factors alone were able to explain a maximum probability of 68% that a CB bloom would occur at the drinking water treatment plant. Nutrient limitation also influences CB blooms and intense blooms only occurred when the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to total phosphorus (TP) mass ratio was below 3. Additional monitoring of DIN and TP could be considered for these source waters prone to cyanobacterial blooms to determine periods of favourable growth. Real time monitoring and the use of the index could permit an adequate and timely response to CB blooms in drinking water sources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. [Pathological gambling: risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouju, G; Grall-Bronnec, M; Landreat-Guillou, M; Venisse, J-L

    2011-09-01

    In France, consumption of gambling games increased by 148% between 1960 and 2005. In 2004, gamblers lost approximately 0.9% of household income, compared to 0.4% in 1960. This represents approximately 134 Euros per year and per head. In spite of this important increase, the level remains lower than the European average (1%). However, gambling practices may continue to escalate in France in the next few years, particularly with the recent announce of the legalisation of online games and sports betting. With the spread of legalised gambling, pathological gambling rates may increase in France in the next years, in response to more widely available and more attractive gambling opportunities. In this context, there is a need for better understanding of the risk factors that are implicated in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. This paper briefly describes the major risk factors for pathological gambling by examining the recent published literature available during the first quarter of 2008. This documentary basis was collected by Inserm for the collective expert report procedure on Gambling (contexts and addictions). Seventy-two articles focusing on risk factors for pathological gambling were considered in this review. Only 47 of them were taken into account for analysis. The selection of these 47 publications was based on the guide on literature analysis established by the French National Agency for Accreditation and Assessment in Health (ANAES, 2000). Some publications from more recent literature have also been added, mostly about Internet gambling. We identify three major types of risk factors implicated in gambling problems: some of them are related to the subject (individual factors), others are related to the object of the addiction, here the gambling activity by itself (structural factors), and the last are related to environment (contextual or situational factors). Thus, the development and maintenance of pathological gambling seems to be

  2. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R

    2008-01-01

    To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.......To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality....

  3. Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimolong, B.

    1980-01-01

    Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

  4. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  5. Risk factors for cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyman, G.H.

    1992-01-01

    It is no longer reasonable to divide cancers into those that are genetic in origin and those that are environmental in origin. With rare exception, carcinogenesis involves environmental factors that directly or indirectly exert a change in the cell's genome. Virtually all causes of cancer are multifactorial, sometimes involving an inherited predisposition to the carcinogenic effects of environmental factors, which include chemicals, ionizing radiation, and oncogenic virus. Carcinogenesis is a multistep process including induction, promotion, and progression. Initiation requires an irreversible change in the cellular genome, whereas promotion is commonly associated with prolonged and reversible exposure. Tumor progression results in genotypic and phenotypic changes associated with tumor growth, invasion, and metastasis. Most information on human cancer risk is based on epidemiologic studies involving both exposed and unexposed individuals. The quality of such studies depends on their ability to assess the strength of any association of exposure and disease and careful attention to any potential bias. Few cancers are inherited in a Mendelian fashion. Several preneoplastic conditions, however, are clearly inherited and several malignancies demonstrate weak familial patterns. Environmental factors may exert their effect on DNA in a random fashion, but certain consistent changes, including specific translocations of genetic information, are often found. Currently, there is great interest in the close proximity of certain oncogenes governing growth control to the consistent chromosomal changes observed. Such changes may represent a final common pathway of action for environmental carcinogens. Sufficient laboratory and epidemiologic evidence exists to establish a causal association of several chemical agents with cancer

  6. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  7. Estimación de la carga de las enfermedades cardiovasculares atribuible a factores de riesgo modificables en Argentina Estimate of the cardiovascular disease burden attributable to modifiable risk factors in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adolfo Rubinstein

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar la carga de la enfermedad, su proporción atribuible a los principales factores de riesgo cardiovascular modificables y los costos médicos directos por hospitalización, asociados con las enfermedades coronarias y los accidentes cerebrovasculares en Argentina. MÉTODOS: Se elaboró un modelo analítico a partir de los datos de mortalidad en Argentina en 2005 y la prevalencia de los principales factores de riesgo cardiovascular (hipertensión arterial, hipercolesterolemia, sobrepeso, obesidad, hiperglucemia, tabaquismo actual y pasado, sedentarismo y consumo inadecuado de frutas y verduras. Se estimaron la carga de la enfermedad -años potenciales de vida perdidos (APVP y años de vida saludable (AVISA perdidos- y los costos de hospitalización por las enfermedades cardiovasculares analizadas. RESULTADOS: En 2005 se perdieron en Argentina más de 600 000 AVISA y se contabilizaron casi 400 000 APVP por enfermedades coronarias y accidentes cerebrovasculares; 71,1% de los AVISA perdidos, 73,9% de APVP y 76,0% de los costos asociados son atribuibles a facto-res de riesgo modificables. La hipertensión arterial fue el factor de riesgo de mayor impacto, tanto en hombres como en mujeres: 37,3% del costo total, 37,5% de los APVP y 36,6% de los AVISA perdidos. CONCLUSIONES: La mayor parte de la carga de la enfermedad en Argentina por enfermedades cardiovasculares está relacionada con factores de riesgo modificables -por lo tanto evitables- y podría reducirse mediante intervenciones poblacionales y clínicas basadas en un enfoque de riesgo, que ya han demostrado ser efectivas en función del costo, asequibles y factibles en países como Argentina.OBJETIVE: Estimate the burden of disease, the proportion attributable to the principal modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, and the direct medical cost of hospitalization associated with coronary heart disease and stroke in Argentina. METHODOLOGY: An analitical model was prepared using

  8. Risk Factors in Pemphigus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülşen Tükenmez Demirc

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Design: There have been reports suggesting the involvement of environmental factors in the disease process of pemphigus. In this study, we aimed to find out the risk factors which could play role in the etiopathogenesis in our pemphigus patients.Material and method: A total of 42 patients (15 male and 27 female who were diagnosed as pemphigus with histopathological and direct immunoflurosence examinations in our clinic between the years 1998-2004, were interviewed for assessment of regarding with the subjects of the demographic properties, occupational groups, educational level, the number of pregnancies, stressfull life events, diet habits, smoking and alcohol consumption before the onset of the disease and the results were compared to 42 age and gender-matched controls with similar socioeconomic circumstances. Results: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were found to be statistically significant in pemphigus patients than in controls. Conclusion: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were assumed to play role in the etiopathogenesis and course of pemphigus.

  9. Perinatal risk factors for strabismus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torp-Pedersen, Tobias; Boyd, Heather A; Poulsen, Gry

    2010-01-01

    Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype.......Little is known about the aetiological factors underlying strabismus. We undertook a large cohort study to investigate perinatal risk factors for strabismus, overall and by subtype....

  10. Risk factors in school shootings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlinden, S; Hersen, M; Thomas, J

    2000-01-01

    Nine incidents of multiple-victim homicide in American secondary schools are examined and common risk factors are identified. The literature dealing with individual, family, social, societal, and situational risk factors for youth violence and aggression is reviewed along with existing risk assessment methods. Checklists of risk factors for serious youth violence and school violence are used in reviewing each school shooting case. Commonalties among the cases and implications for psychologists practicing in clinical and school settings are discussed.

  11. Risks factoring business: accounting measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.V. Gutsaylyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper carried out the identification of risk factors for the development of possible accounting software management. Studied theoretical and methodological aspects of the risk classification of factoring operations in the part of the risk assessment factors. It is proposed to consider the risks factors as the risk that is acceptable controlled by accounting instruments and the risks that can not be taken into account in the accounting records. To minimize the risk factor, accounting-driven tools, a method of self-insurance, which is a factor in the creation of provision for factoring transactions designed to cover unexpected expenses and losses. Provision for factoring factor will establish more stable conditions of financial activity and avoid the fluctuations of profit factor in relation to the writing off of losses on factoring operatsіyam.Developed proposals allow for further research to improve the organizational and methodological basis of accounting and analysis of information as a basis for providing risk management factor, particularly in terms of improving the evaluation questions such risks and their qualitative and quantitative analysis.

  12. Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... » [ pdf, 433 kb ] Order Materials » Stroke Risk Factors and Symptoms Risk Factors for a Stroke Stroke prevention is still ... it. Treatment can delay complications that increase the risk of stroke. Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). Seek help. ...

  13. Risk factor management: antiatherogenic therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gielen, Stephan; Sandri, Marcus; Schuler, Gerhard; Teupser, Daniel

    2009-08-01

    Despite the advances in interventional techniques, the management of stable atherosclerosis remains the domain of optimal guideline-oriented therapy. Recent studies on the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on atheroma volume changes using intravascular ultrasound indicate that it is possible to achieve atherosclerosis regression by reaching low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels less than 75 mg/dl. The pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects of statins contribute to the reduction of cardiovascular (CV) event observed with aggressive lipid lowering. As a second important strategy to prevent disease progression, lifestyle changes with regular physical exercise are capable of halting the atherosclerotic process and reducing angina symptoms and CV events. Optimal medical therapy, a healthy lifestyle with regular physical exercise, and coronary interventions are not mutually exclusive treatment strategies. Over the last few decades, both have proved to be effective in significantly reducing the CV mortality in the Western world. However, risk factor modification contributed to at least half the effect in the reduction of CV mortality. This figure provides an estimate of what could be achieved if we were to take risk factor modification more seriously - especially in the acute care setting. The knowledge is there: today we have a better understanding on how to stop progression and even induce regression of atherosclerosis. Much research still needs to be done and will be done. In the meantime, however, our primary focus should lie in implementing what is already known. In addition, it is essential not just to treat CV risk factors, but also to treat them to achieve the target values as set by the guidelines of European Society of Cardiology.

  14. Risk factors for stress fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennell, K; Matheson, G; Meeuwisse, W; Brukner, P

    1999-08-01

    Preventing stress fractures requires knowledge of the risk factors that predispose to this injury. The aetiology of stress fractures is multifactorial, but methodological limitations and expediency often lead to research study designs that evaluate individual risk factors. Intrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as bone density, skeletal alignment and body size and composition, physiological factors such as bone turnover rate, flexibility, and muscular strength and endurance, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors. Extrinsic risk factors include mechanical factors such as surface, footwear and external loading as well as physical training parameters. Psychological traits may also play a role in increasing stress fracture risk. Equally important to these types of analyses of individual risk factors is the integration of information to produce a composite picture of risk. The purpose of this paper is to critically appraise the existing literature by evaluating study design and quality, in order to provide a current synopsis of the known scientific information related to stress fracture risk factors. The literature is not fully complete with well conducted studies on this topic, but a great deal of information has accumulated over the past 20 years. Although stress fractures result from repeated loading, the exact contribution of training factors (volume, intensity, surface) has not been clearly established. From what we do know, menstrual disturbances, caloric restriction, lower bone density, muscle weakness and leg length differences are risk factors for stress fracture. Other time-honoured risk factors such as lower extremity alignment have not been shown to be causative even though anecdotal evidence indicates they are likely to play an important role in stress fracture pathogenesis.

  15. Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

    1996-01-01

    Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

  16. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  17. Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-07-01

    The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

  18. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  19. Hidden Risk Factors for Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A.S.T. Quiz Hidden Stroke Risk Factors for Women Updated:Nov 22,2016 Excerpted from "What Women Need To Know About The Hidden Risk Factors ... 2012) This year, more than 100,000 U.S. women under 65 will have a stroke. Stroke is ...

  20. Environmental risk factors and pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinda, J.; Lieskovska, Z.

    1998-01-01

    In this chapter the physical risk factors (as radiation [air contamination, contamination of the environment components and food contamination], radon and its radioactive decay products, radioactive wastes, noise), chemical risk factors [chemical substances, xenobiotics in the food chain the ozone depletion], wastes (waste generation, waste management, municipal waste management, import, export and transit of waste) and natural an technological hazards (water quality deterioration as a result of various accidents and fire risk) in the Slovak Republic in 1997 are reviewed

  1. Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.

    1984-04-01

    Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references

  2. Cardiovascular risk factors and dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillit, Howard; Nash, David T; Rundek, Tatjana; Zuckerman, Andrea

    2008-06-01

    Dementias, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia, are disorders of aging populations and represent a significant economic burden. Evidence is accumulating to suggest that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be instrumental in the development of dementia. The goal of this review was to discuss the relationship between specific CVD risk factors and dementia and how current treatment strategies for dementia should focus on reducing CVD risks. We conducted a review of the literature for the simultaneous presence of 2 major topics, cardiovascular risk factors and dementia (eg, AD). Special emphasis was placed on clinical outcome studies examining the effects of treatments of pharmacologically modifiable CVD risk factors on dementia and cognitive impairment. Lifestyle risk factors for CVD, such as obesity, lack of exercise, smoking, and certain psychosocial factors, have been associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Some evidence suggests that effectively managing these factors may prevent cognitive decline/dementia. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials of antihypertensive medications have found that such therapy may reduce the risk of cognitive decline, and limited data suggest a benefit for patients with AD. Some small open-label and randomized clinical trials of statins have observed positive effects on cognitive function; larger studies of statins in patients with AD are ongoing. Although more research is needed, current evidence indicates an association between CVD risk factors--such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus--and cognitive decline/dementia. From a clinical perspective, these data further support the rationale for physicians to provide effective management of CVD risk factors and for patients to be compliant with such recommendations to possibly prevent cognitive decline/dementia.

  3. Cardiovascular risk factors in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyllenborg, J; Rasmussen, S L; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2001-01-01

    Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross-sectional de......Males have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) than premenopausal females. Gonadal steroids are probably involved in the gender difference in CVD, but previous results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between CVD risk factors and sex hormones in a cross...

  4. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

  5. The influence of dexamethasone and ketolgan on postoperative nausea and vomiting and estimation of risk factors in women undergoing gynecologic laparoscopic surgeries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimaitis, Kestutis; Svitojūte, Asta; Macas, Andrius

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the effect of dexamethasone and ketolgan on postoperative nausea and vomiting and to evaluate risk factors for postoperative nausea and vomiting. A prospective, double-blind, randomized clinical study was carried out. One hundred fifty-three ASA I-II women undergoing laparoscopic gynecologic operations were randomized into three groups: dexamethasone group (n=51), ketolgan group (n=51), and control group (n=51). Patients in the dexamethasone group were given 4 mg of dexamethasone intravenously before the induction of general anesthesia, the ketolgan group received 30-mg ketolgan intravenously, and control group did not receive any medication. The incidence and severity of postoperative nausea and vomiting were registered 24 hours after the surgery. The incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting in the dexamethasone group was 13.8%; in the ketolgan group, 37.3%, and in the control group, 58.9% (P=0.026). Patients with a history of migraine suffered from postoperative nausea and vomiting in 70.3% of cases and migraine-free patients in 25.8% of cases (P=0.015). Opioids for postoperative analgesia increased the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting as compared with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (P=0.00002). Preoperative medication with dexamethasone significantly reduces the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting. Avoidance of opioids for postoperative analgesia reduces the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting. Migraine and motion sickness are independent risk factors for postoperative nausea and vomiting.

  6. Estimating risk factors for farm-level transmission of disease: Foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R. Bessell

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Controlling an epidemic would be aided by establishing whether particular individuals in infected populations are more likely to transmit infection. However, few analyses have characterised such individuals. Such analyses require both data on who infected whom and on the likely determinants of transmission; data that are available at the farm level for the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease epidemic in Great Britain. Using these data a putative number of daughter infected premises (IPs resulting from each IP was calculated where these daughters were within 3 km of the IP. A set of possible epidemiological, demographic, spatial and temporal risk factors were analysed, with the final multivariate generalised linear model (Poisson error term having 6 statistically significant (p<0.05 main effects including geographic area, local cattle and sheep densities, and the number of non-IP culls. This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori. Such information could be used to help prioritise the response to an epidemic. Keywords: Foot and mouth disease, Epidemiology, Risk modelling, Livestock, Disease control

  7. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  8. EAMJ Risk Factors 10.indd

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-02-02

    Feb 2, 2010 ... Several factors have been suggested as independent risk factors for their development. Identification of these ... with age, gender or haematological test. ... A meta-analysis of prospective studies on ..... The marked difference may be because monthly .... and dyslipidemia among patients taking first-line,.

  9. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  10. Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

    1981-09-01

    This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

  11. Non-communicable disease risk factor patterns among mining industry workers in Papua, Indonesia: longitudinal findings from the Cardiovascular Outcomes in a Papuan Population and Estimation of Risk (COPPER) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Fernandez, Rodrigo; Rahajeng, Ekowati; Viliani, Francesca; Kushadiwijaya, Haripurnomo; Amiya, Rachel M; Bangs, Michael J

    2015-10-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) constitute an increasing slice of the global burden of disease, with the South-East Asia region projected to see the highest increase in NCD-related deaths over the next decade. Mining industry employees may be exposed to various factors potentially elevating their NCD risk. This study aimed to assess the distribution and 5-year longitudinal trends of key metabolic NCD risk factors in a cohort of copper-gold mining company workers in Papua, Indonesia. Metabolic indicators of NCD risk were assessed among employees (15 580 at baseline, 6496 prospectively) of a large copper-gold mining operation in Papua, Indonesia, using routinely collected 5-year medical surveillance data. The study cohort comprised individuals aged 18-68 years employed for ≥1 year during 2008-2013. Assessed risk factors were based on repeat measures of cholesterol, blood glucose, blood pressure and body weight, using WHO criteria. Metabolic risk indicator rates were markedly high and increased significantly from baseline through 5-year follow-up (pmining operations setting in Papua, Indonesia, may face elevated NCD risk through various routes. Workplace health promotion interventions and policies targeting modifiable lifestyle patterns and environmental exposures present an important opportunity to reduce such susceptibilities and mitigate associated health risks. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. [Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Rombo, C A; Velasco-Lavín, M R; Nieto-Caldelas, A

    1993-09-01

    The purpose of the present study is to compare risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) between two group: group A, newborns with the disease and group B, newborns with other diseases different from NEC, in order to know if these risk factors are more frequent or not in the first group. We assessed the clinical records of all the patients hospitalized in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Neonatology Service of the La Raza General Hospital between 1987 and 1991 with the diagnosis of NEC. They were compared with 65 clinical records chosen at random of patients hospitalized in the same Unit with other diagnosis at the same time, and who were discharged by improvement or deceased. In all of them were look for known risk factors for NEC generally accepted such as: prematurity, neonatal asphyxia, poliglobulia, cyanotic congenital heart disease, patent ductus arteriosus, respiratory distress syndrome, catheterization of umbilical vessels, early feeding of elevated formula increases, exchange exchange transfusion, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, infection, etc. Just 25 records of the possible 50 with the diagnosis of NEC full filled inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant difference in weight, sex, mortality and known risk factors of NEC between both groups. Were concluded that NEC is a disease of unknown etiology that should be studied more thoroughly. The known risk factors must be avoided because the patient susceptibility probably play an important role.

  13. Risk factor for febrile seizures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odalović Dragica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Febrile seizures are the most frequent neurological disorder in the childhood. According to American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP, they have been defined as seizures provoked by high temperature in children aged between 6 months and 5 years, without previous history of afebrile seizures, intracranial infections and other possible causes of seizures. Seizures can be typical and atypical, according to the characteristics. Pathogenesis of this disorder has not been clarified yet, and it is believed to be a combination of genetic factors, high body temperature and brain maturation. The risk factors for recurrence of febrile seizures are: age in which seizures appeared for the first time, epilepsy in the first degree relative, febrile seizures in the first degree relative, frequent diseases with fever and low body temperature on the beginning of seizures. The frequency of recurrent seizures The risk for occurrence of epilepsy in children with simple seizures is about 1-1.5%, which is slightly higher compared to general population, while it increases to 4-15% in patients with complex seizures. However, there is no evidence that therapy prevents occurrence of epilepsy. When the prevention of recurrent seizures is considered, it is necessary to separate simple from complex seizures. The aim of this paper was to analyze the most important risk factors for febrile seizures, and to evaluate their impact on occurrence of recurrent seizures. Our study included 125 children with febrile seizures, aged from 6 months to 5 years. The presence of febrile seizures and epilepsy in the first degree relative has been noted in 22% of children. Typical febrile seizures were observed in 76% of cases, and atypical in 24%. Most patients had only one seizure (73.6%. Children, who had seizure earlier in life, had more frequent recurrences. Both risk factors were present in 25% of patients, while 68% of patients had only one risk factor. For the children with febrile disease

  14. [The concept of risk and its estimation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

    1996-01-01

    The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

  15. Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Psychosocial risk factors for the metabolic syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jolene Masters; Lund, Rikke; Andersen, Ingelise

    2016-01-01

    Background/Objectives: Metabolic deregulations and development of metabolic syndrome may be an important pathway underlying the relationship between stress and cardiovascular disease. We aim to estimate the effect of a comprehensive range of psychosocial factors on the risk of developing metabolic.......11) to be risk factors for developing the metabolic syndrome in women, while vital exhaustion (OR 2.09, 95% CI 0.95 to 4.59) and intake of sleep medications (OR 2.54, 95% CI 0.92 to 5.96) may play a more important role in men. Conclusions: Experiencing major life events in work and adult life and....../or dysfunctional social networks is a risk factor for metabolic syndrome in women, and stress reactions such as vital exhaustion and intake of sleep medications may play a more important role in the development of metabolic syndrome men....

  17. Human Leptospirosis and risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanelis Emilia Tabío Henry

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The human leptospirosis is a zoonosis of world distribution, were risk factors exist that have favored the wild and domestic animal propagation and so man. A descpitive investigation was made with the objective of determining the behavior of risk factors in outpatients by human leptospirosis in “Camilo Cienfuegos“ University General Hospital from Sncti Spíritus In the comprised time period betwen december 1 st and 3 st , 2008.The sample of this study was conformed by 54 risk persons that keep inclusion criteria. Some variables were used:age, sex, risk factors and number of ill persons, according to the month. Some patients of masculine sex prevailed (61,9%, group of ages between 15-29 and 45-59 years (27,7%, patients treated since october to december (53,7%, the direct and indirect contact with animals (46,2 %. The risk factors cassually associated to human leptospirosis turned to be: the masculine sex, the contac with animals, the occupational exposition and the inmersion on sources of sweet water.

  18. Estimation of Fano factor in inorganic scintillators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bora, Vaibhav, E-mail: bora.vaibhav@gmail.com [Center for Gamma-Ray Imaging, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Arizona and College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85724 (United States); Barrett, Harrison H., E-mail: barrett@radiology.arizona.edu [Center for Gamma-Ray Imaging, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Arizona and College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85724 (United States); Fastje, David, E-mail: dfastje@gmail.com [Center for Gamma-Ray Imaging, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Arizona and College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85724 (United States); Clarkson, Eric, E-mail: clarkson@radiology.arizona.edu [Center for Gamma-Ray Imaging, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Arizona and College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85724 (United States); Furenlid, Lars, E-mail: furen@radiology.arizona.edu [Center for Gamma-Ray Imaging, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Arizona and College of Optical Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85724 (United States); Bousselham, Abdelkader, E-mail: abousselham@qf.org.qa [Qatar Foundation, QEERI, P.O. Box 5825, Doha (Qatar); Shah, Kanai S., E-mail: kanaishah@yahoo.com [Radiation Monitoring Devices, Inc., Watertown, MA 02472 (United States); Glodo, Jarek, E-mail: jglodo@rmdinc.com [Radiation Monitoring Devices, Inc., Watertown, MA 02472 (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Fano factor of an integer-valued random variable is defined as the ratio of its variance to its mean. Correlation between the outputs of two photomultiplier tubes on opposite faces of a scintillation crystal was used to estimate the Fano factor of photoelectrons and scintillation photons. Correlations between the integrals of the detector outputs were used to estimate the photoelectron and photon Fano factor for YAP:Ce, SrI{sub 2}:Eu and CsI:Na scintillator crystals. At 662 keV, SrI{sub 2}:Eu was found to be sub-Poisson, while CsI:Na and YAP:Ce were found to be super-Poisson. An experiment setup inspired from the Hanbury Brown and Twiss experiment was used to measure the correlations as a function of time between the outputs of two photomultiplier tubes looking at the same scintillation event. A model of the scintillation and the detection processes was used to generate simulated detector outputs as a function of time for different values of Fano factor. The simulated outputs from the model for different Fano factors was compared to the experimentally measured detector outputs to estimate the Fano factor of the scintillation photons for YAP:Ce, LaBr{sub 3}:Ce scintillator crystals. At 662 keV, LaBr{sub 3}:Ce was found to be sub-Poisson, while YAP:Ce was found to be close to Poisson.

  19. Risk factor meta-analysis and Bayesian estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values for hypersensibility to cutaneous habronematidosis in donkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navas González, Francisco Javier; Jordana Vidal, Jordi; Camacho Vallejo, María Esperanza; León Jurado, Jose Manuel; de la Haba Giraldo, Manuel Rafael; Barba Capote, Cecilio; Delgado Bermejo, Juan Vicente

    2018-03-15

    Cutaneous habronematidosis (CH) is a highly prevalent seasonally recurrent skin disease that affects donkeys as a result from the action of spirurid stomach worm larvae. Carrier flies mistakenly deposit these larvae on previous skin lesions or on the moisture of natural orifices, causing distress and inflicting relapsing wounds to the animals. First, we carried out a meta-analysis of the predisposing factors that could condition the development of CH in Andalusian donkeys. Second, basing on the empirical existence of an inter and intrafamilial variation previously addressed by owners, we isolated the genetic background behind the hypersensibility to this parasitological disease. To this aim, we designed a Bayesian linear model (BLM) to estimate the breeding values and genetic parameters for the hypersensibility to CH as a way to infer the potential selection suitability of this trait, seeking the improvement of donkey conservation programs. We studied the historical record of the cases of CH of 765 donkeys from 1984 to 2017. Fixed effects included birth year, birth season, sex, farm/owner, and husbandry system. Age was included as a linear and quadratic covariate. Although the effects of birth season and birth year were statistically non-significant (P > 0.05), their respective interactions with sex and farm/owner were statistically significant (P < 0.01), what translated into an increase of 40.5% in the specificity and of 0.6% of the sensibility of the model designed, when such interactions were included. Our BLM reported highly accurate genetic parameters as suggested by the low error of around 0.005, and the 95% credible interval for the heritability of ±0.0012. The CH hypersensibility heritability was 0.0346. The value of 0.1232 for additive genetic variance addresses a relatively low genetic variation in the Andalusian donkey breed. Our results suggest that farms managed under extensive husbandry conditions are the most protective ones against

  20. Estimating the number of secondary Ebola cases resulting from an unsafe burial and risk factors for transmission during the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Tiffany

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Safely burying Ebola infected individuals is acknowledged to be important for controlling Ebola epidemics and was a major component of the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola response. Yet, in order to understand the impact of safe burial programs it is necessary to elucidate the role of unsafe burials in sustaining chains of Ebola transmission and how the risk posed by activities surrounding unsafe burials, including care provided at home prior to death, vary with human behavior and geography.Interviews with next of kin and community members were carried out for unsafe burials in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, in six districts where the Red Cross was responsible for safe and dignified burials (SDB. Districts were randomly selected from a district-specific sampling frame comprised of villages and neighborhoods that had experienced cases of Ebola. An average of 2.58 secondary cases were potentially generated per unsafe burial and varied by district (range: 0-20. Contact before and after death was reported for 142 (46% contacts. Caregivers of a primary case were 2.63 to 5.92 times more likely to become EVD infected compared to those with post-mortem contact only. Using these estimates, the Red Cross SDB program potentially averted between 1,411 and 10,452 secondary EVD cases, reducing the epidemic by 4.9% to 36.5%.SDB is a fundamental control measure that limits community transmission of Ebola; however, for those individuals having contact before and after death, it was impossible to ascertain the exposure that caused their infection. The number of infections prevented through SDB is significant, yet greater impact would be achieved by early hospitalization of the primary case during acute illness.

  1. Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.; He, W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)

  2. Bulk milk-estimated seroprevalence of Fasciola hepatica in dairy herds and collecting of risk factor data in East Frisia, northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuerpick, Birte; Fiedor, Christiane; von Samson-Himmelstjerna, Georg; Schnieder, Thomas; Strube, Christina

    2012-01-01

    The liver fluke Fasciola (F) hepatica is one of the most important trematodes in cattle farming worldwide. Fasciolosis in dairy cows is leading to production losses due to decreased milk yield, liver condemnation and impaired reproduction. The treatment of dairy cows is unsatisfactory, because available drugs are either effective against adult flukes only or have long withdrawal times or in some countries may not be used at all. In the present study the prevalence of F. hepatica in dairy farms located in East Frisia, which is part of the federal state Lower Saxony, was investigated. East Frisia is considered a high risk area for Fasciola hepatica infections, because of its coastal location, high precipitation and moist pastures. About 750 bulk milk samples were collected in January and November 2006 and analysed for F. hepatica antibodies using the Pourquier ELISA. In addition, questionnaires, which were answered by 260 of the participating farmers, were evaluated to analyse management-related factors associated with fasciolosis. In January and November, 52.1% and 53.6% of the bulk milk samples, respectively, showed positive results. Thereby, 88.1% of the examined farms showed an unchanged infection status, whereas 6.2% of the farms became seropositive during the grazing season and 5.8% of the dairy herds turned seronegative. Statistical analysis revealed a significant negative association between average annual milk production and the frequency of infections with F. hepatica.

  3. Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

    2006-01-01

    Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

  4. Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

    1998-12-01

    A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

  5. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  6. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  7. Risk factors for undescended testis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwers, M.M.; Bruijne, L.M. de; Gier, R.P.E. de; Zielhuis, G.A.; Feitz, W.F.J.; Roeleveld, N.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To contribute to the understanding of the etiology of undescended testis (UDT), by exploring a wide range of potential risk factors in a case-referent study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cases and referents were recruited at five hospitals and included 200 boys with surgically corrected UDT and

  8. Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti-Soler, Helena; Gubelmann, Cédric; Aeschbacher, Stefanie

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist...

  9. New risk estimates at low doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology

  10. [Estimating minimum period of time to perform prostate MRI after prostate biopsy: Clinical and histological bleeding risk factors; from a prospective study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarradin, M; Lepiney, C; Celhay, O; Delpech, P O; Charles, T; Pillot, P; Bernardeau, S; Tasu, J P; Irani, J

    2018-02-01

    A minimum delay of 4 to 6 weeks between biopsy and multiparametric prostatic MRI (mpMRI) is admitted due to post-biopsy hemorrhage that can impact MRI reading without strong scientific evidence. The objective of the study was to evaluate the best period between prostate biopsy and 3Tesla mpMRI and searching for predictive factors of intraprostatic blood. A prostate biopsy followed by a 4-week prostate MRI (MRIp M1) was performed. In case of hemorrhage, MRI was rescheduled at 8 and 12 weeks (M2/M3). We analyzed the persistant bleeding to identify risk factors: anticoagulant/antiaggregant, post-biopsy side effects, histological criteria. In this prospective, single-center study, we included 40 patients followed for suspected prostate cancer between December 2014 and March 2016. At the MRIpM1, blood was found for 97.5 % of the patients. The rates were 90.9 % and 88.9 % respectively at the M2 and M3 mpMRI. Compared to initial blood volume on MRIpM1, a significant decrease in blood volume was observed between M1 and M2 (55 %; P=0.0091). We showed a 75 % decrease between M1 and M3 (P=0.0003). Low urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) suggesting urinary infection at 4 weeks were significantly correlated with blood volume on MRIpM1 (P=0.0063). The blood volume was higher in case of unconformity between biopsy and mpMRI results for detection of significant tumors (11.3 vs. 2.3; P=0.0051). A minimum of 8-week biopsy and mpMRI period would limit post-biopsy hemorrhage, predicted by LUTS suggesting urinary infection. A delay of 12 weeks would be optimal without delaying the management of the patient. 4. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

  12. Risk factors for congenital hydrocephalus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Tina Noergaard; Rasmussen, Marie-Louise Hee; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2014-01-01

    . Furthermore, to identify the risk factors unique for isolated CHC as compared to syndromic CHC. METHODS: We established a cohort of all children born in Denmark between 1978 and 2008. Information on CHC and maternal medical diseases were obtained from the National Patient Discharge Register, maternal intake...... increased risk of isolated CHC compared to unexposed children (RR 2.52, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.29) (1.5/1000 born children). Risk factors also found for syndromic CHC were: Male gender, multiples and maternal diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The higher risk for isolated CHC in first-born children as well as behavioural......-born children, we observed 1193 cases of isolated CHC (0.062/1000) born children. First-borns had an increased risk of isolated CHC compared to later-borns (1.32 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49) (0.72/1000 born children). First trimester exposure to maternal use of antidepressants was associated with a significantly...

  13. MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radik B. Begov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

  14. [Risk factors associated to preclampsia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carbajal, Mario Joaquín; Manríquez-Moreno, María Esther; Gálvez-Camargo, Daniela; Ramírez-Jiménez, Evelia

    2012-01-01

    preeclampsia constitutes one of the main causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated to the developmental of preeclampsia mild-moderate and severe, as well as the force of association of these factors in a hospital of second-level medical care. study of cases and controls, a relation 1:1, in women withdrawn of the Service of Gynecology and Obstetrics during 2004 to 2007. Pregnant women with more than 20 weeks gestation were included. In the cases group we included patients with diagnosis of preeclampsia mild-moderate or severe (corroborated clinical and laboratory). In the controls group that had a normal childbirth without pathology during the pregnancy. 42 cases and 42 controls. The average age was of 27 years. The associated risk factors were overweight, obesity, irregular prenatal control, short or long intergenesic period, history of caesarean or preeclampsia in previous pregnancies. the knowledge of the risk factors will allow the accomplishment of preventive measures and decrease the fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality due to preeclampsia.

  15. A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

    2012-06-01

    To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Methods to estimate the genetic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehling, U.H.

    1989-01-01

    The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

  17. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  18. Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    1999-01-01

    Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)

  19. Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.

  20. Disability as a risk factor?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Louise; Dammeyer, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research has established that children with disabilities are more likely to develop psychopathology than children without disabilities. But too little is known about the association between disability and psychopathology. The aim of this article is to discuss developmental...... psychopathological models that conceptualize the connection between childhood disability and psychopathology. Empirical studies of psychopathology among children with a congenital hearing impairment and children with cerebral palsy will be reviewed, representing in-depth examples of association between disability...... and psychopathology. Both a congenital hearing impairment and cerebral palsy were found to be dominating risk factors for all types of psychopathology, but no relationship was identified between degree of disability and risk of psychopathology. The higher risk cannot be explained by biological impairments alone...

  1. Neurodevelopmental risk factors in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lobato M.I.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors review environmental and neurodevelopmental risk factors for schizophrenic disorders, with emphasis on minor physical anomalies, particularly craniofacial anomalies and dermatoglyphic variations. The high prevalence of these anomalies among schizophrenic subjects supports the neurodevelopmental theory of the etiology of schizophrenia, since they suggest either genetically or epigenetically controlled faulty embryonic development of structures of ectodermal origin like brain and skin. This may disturb neurodevelopment that in turn may cause these subjects to be at increased risk for the development of schizophrenia and related disorders. The precise confirmation of this theory, at least in some cases, will provide further understanding of these illnesses, allowing easy and inexpensive identification of subjects at risk and providing guidelines for the development of new pharmacological interventions for early treatment and even for primary prevention of the illness.

  2. A review of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-06-01

    Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

  3. Risk factors and effective management of preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    English FA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fred A English,1 Louise C Kenny,1 Fergus P McCarthy1,2 1Irish Centre for Fetal and Neonatal Translational Research (INFANT, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; 2Women’s Health Academic Centre, King's Health Partners, St Thomas' Hospital, London, UK Abstract: Preeclampsia, a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy is estimated to complicate 2%–8% of pregnancies and remains a principal cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Preeclampsia may present at any gestation but is more commonly encountered in the third trimester. Multiple risk factors have been documented, including: family history, nulliparity, egg donation, diabetes, and obesity. Significant progress has been made in developing tests to predict risk of preeclampsia in pregnancy, but these remain confined to clinical trial settings and center around measuring angiogenic profiles, including placental growth factor or newer tests involving metabolomics. Less progress has been made in developing new treatments and therapeutic targets, and aspirin remains one of the few agents shown to consistently reduce the risk of developing preeclampsia. This review serves to discuss recent advances in risk factor identification, prediction techniques, and management of preeclampsia in antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal patients. Keywords: pregnancy, treatment, risk reduction, prediction

  4. Epidemiology and etiology of childhood pneumonia in 2010: estimates of incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, underlying risk factors and causative pathogens for 192 countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Rudan

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The recent series of reviews conducted within the Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD addressed epidemiology of the two deadly diseases at the global and regional level; it also estimated the effectiveness of interventions, barriers to achieving high coverage and the main implications for health policy. The aim of this paper is to provide the estimates of childhood pneumonia at the country level. This should allow national policy–makers and stakeholders to implement proposed policies in the World Health Organization (WHO and UNICEF member countries.

  5. Association of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors with Venous Thromboembolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K; Cushman, Mary; Næss, Inger Anne

    2017-01-01

    Background: Much controversy surrounds the association of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods: We performed an individual level random-effect meta-analysis including 9 prospective studies with measured baseline cardiovascular disease risk...... factors and validated VTE events. Definitions were harmonized across studies. Traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were modeled categorically and continuously using restricted cubic splines. Estimates were obtained for overall VTE, provoked VTE (ie, VTE occurring in the presence of 1 or more...

  6. Risk factors for hearing loss in neonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni Luh Putu Maharani

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background An estimated 6 of 1,000 children with live births suffer from permanent hearing loss at birth or the neonatal period. At least 90% of cases occur in developing countries. Hearing loss should be diagnosed as early as possible so that intervention can be done before the age of 6 months. Objective To determine risk factors for hearing loss in neonates. Methods We performed a case-control study involving 100 neonates with and without hearing loss who were born at Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar from November 2012 to February 2013. Subjects were consisted of 2 groups, those with hearing loss (case group of 50 subjects and without hearing loss (control group of 50 subjects. The groups were matched for gender and birth weight. We assessed the following risk factors for hearing loss: severe neonatal asphyxia, hyperbilirubinemia, meningitis, history of aminoglycoside therapy, and mechanical ventilation by Chi-square analysis. The results were presented as odds ratio and its corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Results Seventy percent of neonates with hearing loss had history of aminoglycoside therapy. Multivariable analysis revealed that aminoglycoside therapy of 14 days or more was a significant risk factor for hearing loss (OR 2.7; 95%CI 1.1 to 6.8; P=0.040. There were no statistically significant associations between hearing loss and severe asphyxia, hyperbilirubinemia, meningitis, or mechanical ventilation. Conclusion Aminoglycoside therapy for >=14 days was identified as a risk factor for hearing loss in neonates.

  7. Perinatal risk factors including malformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-10-01

    The study gives a survey of the factors most frequently mentioned in the literature as factors likely to adversely affect a pregnancy. One essential aspect is the discussion of those factors that can be counted among the causes of malformations, as among others, prenatal radiation exposure. The study prepared within the framework of the research project 'Radiobiological environmental monitoring in Bavaria' is intended to serve as a basis for a retrospective and prospective evaluation of infant mortality, perinatal conditions and occurrence of malformations in Bavaria, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment - related health survey. The study therefore, in addition to ionizing radiation also takes into account other detectable risks within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or urbanity. (orig./MG) [de

  8. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...

  9. Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

    2013-11-01

    To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

  10. Risk factors for tornado injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidson, M; Lybarger, J A; Parsons, J E; MacCormack, J N; Freeman, J I

    1990-12-01

    Tornadoes in North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984 caused 252 people to be injured seriously enough to require hospitalization and 59 to be killed. To evaluate risk factors, we gathered information on 238 (94%) of those hospitalized and 46 (78%) of those killed. Those hospitalized or deceased had statistically significantly more deep cuts, concussions, unconsciousness and broken bones than those with them at the time of the tornado who were not hospitalized or killed. People living in mobile homes were more likely to be hospitalized or die than people occupying conventional houses. Other risk factors for hospitalization or death included advanced age (60+ years), no physical protection (not having been covered with a blanket or other object), having been struck by broken window glass or other falling objects, home lifted off its foundation, collapsed ceiling or floor, or walls blown away. More awareness of the tornado risk before it strikes and better adherence to tornado protection guidelines could reduce injuries and deaths in the future.

  11. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

  12. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

  13. Risk factors of teenage pregnancy

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Siettou; Maria Saridi

    2011-01-01

    Teenage pregnancy is a worldwide medical and social issue, associated with many physical, psychological and social consequences and can result in birth, miscarriage or abortion. Aim: The aim of the present study is to find those risk factors that contribute to teenage pregnancy. Results: In U.S.A., according to data from Unicef, the birth rate among teenagers touches the 52.1% and it is four times higher, than the corresponding rate recorded in the countries of Western Europe. The United King...

  14. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  15. New risk factors for atherosclerosis and patient risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fruchart, Jean-Charles; Nierman, Melchior C.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Duriez, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    Advances in our understanding of the ways in which the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including standard lipid (eg, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nonlipid (eg, hypertension) risk factors, interact to initiate

  16. Do the risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus vary by location? A spatial analysis of health insurance claims in Northeastern Germany using kernel density estimation and geographically weighted regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Kauhl

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The provision of general practitioners (GPs in Germany still relies mainly on the ratio of inhabitants to GPs at relatively large scales and barely accounts for an increased prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly and socially underprivileged populations. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM is one of the major cost-intensive diseases with high rates of potentially preventable complications. Provision of healthcare and access to preventive measures is necessary to reduce the burden of T2DM. However, current studies on the spatial variation of T2DM in Germany are mostly based on survey data, which do not only underestimate the true prevalence of T2DM, but are also only available on large spatial scales. The aim of this study is therefore to analyse the spatial distribution of T2DM at fine geographic scales and to assess location-specific risk factors based on data of the AOK health insurance. Methods To display the spatial heterogeneity of T2DM, a bivariate, adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE was applied. The spatial scan statistic (SaTScan was used to detect areas of high risk. Global and local spatial regression models were then constructed to analyze socio-demographic risk factors of T2DM. Results T2DM is especially concentrated in rural areas surrounding Berlin. The risk factors for T2DM consist of proportions of 65–79 year olds, 80 + year olds, unemployment rate among the 55–65 year olds, proportion of employees covered by mandatory social security insurance, mean income tax, and proportion of non-married couples. However, the strength of the association between T2DM and the examined socio-demographic variables displayed strong regional variations. Conclusion The prevalence of T2DM varies at the very local level. Analyzing point data on T2DM of northeastern Germany’s largest health insurance provider thus allows very detailed, location-specific knowledge about increased medical needs. Risk factors

  17. Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardis, E.

    2002-01-01

    The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21. century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. (author)

  18. Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment Past Issues / Summer 2013 Table ... Articles Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone / Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment / Timely Healthcare Checkup Catches Melanoma ...

  19. 459 Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    2011-01-18

    Jan 18, 2011 ... injury. Risk factors may be considered as characteristic indicators ... by examining the cardiovascular risk factors that are related to various forms .... Cross country race, Handball, Jogging, Rope jumping, Running Soccer,.

  20. Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

  1. Estimating the risk of cardio vascular diseases among pakistani diabetics using uk pds risk engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moazzam, A.; Amer, J.

    2015-01-01

    The concept of risk estimation of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is helpful for clinician to identifying high risk populations for their effective treatment. Latest studies recommended only initiating cardio-protective treatment in diabetic patients based on personalized CHD risk estimates so as to reduce undue harm from overly aggressive risk factor modification. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UK PDS) Risk Engine is a widely used tool to assess the risk of Cardio Vascular diseases (CVD) in diabetics. The literature search so far did not reveal any study of risk assessment among Pakistani Diabetics. Methods: This descriptive study is based on the data of 470 type-2 diabetics seen in Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore during 2011. The data of these 470 patients was analyzed through UKPDS Risk Engine. CHD risk was calculated. Results: The 10 years risk of CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 9.4%, 4.4%, 1.7% and 0.2% respectively. Conclusions: The present study show a lower risk of CVD occurring among Pakistani diabetics as compared to studies from western countries. (author)

  2. Women's Heart Disease: Heart Disease Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page please turn JavaScript on. Feature: Women's Heart Disease Heart Disease Risk Factors Past Issues / Winter 2014 Table ... or habits may raise your risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). These conditions are known as risk ...

  3. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

  4. Risk factors for venous thromboembolism during pregnancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Bo; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Grøn, Randi

    2013-01-01

    Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated.......Pregnant women are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Risk factors for VTE among pregnant women are not sufficiently investigated....

  5. A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Giger, Maryellen Lissak

    2001-01-01

    ... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

  6. Molecular Risk Factors for Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modai, Shira; Shomron, Noam

    2016-03-01

    Schizophrenia (SZ) is a complex and strongly heritable mental disorder, which is also associated with developmental-environmental triggers. As opposed to most diagnosable diseases (yet similar to other mental disorders), SZ diagnosis is commonly based on psychiatric evaluations. Recently, large-scale genetic and epigenetic approaches have been applied to SZ research with the goal of potentially improving diagnosis. Increased computational analyses and applied statistical algorithms may shed some light on the complex genetic and epigenetic pathways contributing to SZ pathogenesis. This review discusses the latest advances in molecular risk factors and diagnostics for SZ. Approaches such as these may lead to a more accurate definition of SZ and assist in creating extended and reliable clinical diagnoses with the potential for personalized treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk Factors for Hemorrhoids on Screening Colonoscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne F Peery

    Full Text Available Constipation, a low fiber diet, sedentary lifestyle and gravidity are commonly assumed to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. However, evidence regarding these factors is limited. We examined the association between commonly cited risk factors and the prevalence of hemorrhoids.We performed a cross sectional study of participants who underwent a colonoscopy in a colorectal adenoma prevention trial and who had a detailed assessment of bowel habits, diet and activity. The presence of hemorrhoids was extracted from the subjects' colonoscopy reports. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals while adjusting for age and sex.The study included 2,813 participants. Of these, 1,074 had hemorrhoids recorded. Constipation was associated with an increased prevalence of hemorrhoids (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.86. Of the fiber subtypes, high grain fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1 = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62, 0.98. We found no association when comparing gravid and nulligravida women (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.62-1.40. Sedentary behavior was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, but not physical activity (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66-1.03. Neither being overweight nor obese was associated with the presence of hemorrhoids (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09 and OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.06.Constipation is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhoids. Gravidity and physical activity do not appear to be associated. High grain fiber intake and sedentary behavior are associated with a decreased risk of hemorrhoids.

  8. Risk Factors for Hemorrhoids on Screening Colonoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peery, Anne F; Sandler, Robert S; Galanko, Joseph A; Bresalier, Robert S; Figueiredo, Jane C; Ahnen, Dennis J; Barry, Elizabeth L; Baron, John A

    2015-01-01

    Constipation, a low fiber diet, sedentary lifestyle and gravidity are commonly assumed to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. However, evidence regarding these factors is limited. We examined the association between commonly cited risk factors and the prevalence of hemorrhoids. We performed a cross sectional study of participants who underwent a colonoscopy in a colorectal adenoma prevention trial and who had a detailed assessment of bowel habits, diet and activity. The presence of hemorrhoids was extracted from the subjects' colonoscopy reports. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals while adjusting for age and sex. The study included 2,813 participants. Of these, 1,074 had hemorrhoids recorded. Constipation was associated with an increased prevalence of hemorrhoids (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.86). Of the fiber subtypes, high grain fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1 = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62, 0.98). We found no association when comparing gravid and nulligravida women (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.62-1.40). Sedentary behavior was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98), but not physical activity (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66-1.03). Neither being overweight nor obese was associated with the presence of hemorrhoids (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09 and OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.06). Constipation is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhoids. Gravidity and physical activity do not appear to be associated. High grain fiber intake and sedentary behavior are associated with a decreased risk of hemorrhoids.

  9. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.

  10. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks

  11. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

    1988-10-01

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  12. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  13. Gravity Field Parameter Estimation Using QR Factorization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klokocnik, J.; Wagner, C. A.; McAdoo, D.; Kostelecky, J.; Bezdek, A.; Novak, P.; Gruber, C.; Marty, J.; Bruinsma, S. L.; Gratton, S.; Balmino, G.; Baboulin, M.

    2007-12-01

    This study compares the accuracy of the estimated geopotential coefficients when QR factorization is used instead of the classical method applied at our institute, namely the generation of normal equations that are solved by means of Cholesky decomposition. The objective is to evaluate the gain in numerical precision, which is obtained at considerable extra cost in terms of computer resources. Therefore, a significant increase in precision must be realized in order to justify the additional cost. Numerical simulations were done in order to examine the performance of both solution methods. Reference gravity gradients were simulated, using the EIGEN-GL04C gravity field model to degree and order 300, every 3 seconds along a near-circular, polar orbit at 250 km altitude. The simulation spanned a total of 60 days. A polar orbit was selected in this simulation in order to avoid the 'polar gap' problem, which causes inaccurate estimation of the low-order spherical harmonic coefficients. Regularization is required in that case (e.g., the GOCE mission), which is not the subject of the present study. The simulated gravity gradients, to which white noise was added, were then processed with the GINS software package, applying EIGEN-CG03 as the background gravity field model, followed either by the usual normal equation computation or using the QR approach for incremental linear least squares. The accuracy assessment of the gravity field recovery consists in computing the median error degree-variance spectra, accumulated geoid errors, geoid errors due to individual coefficients, and geoid errors calculated on a global grid. The performance, in terms of memory usage, required disk space, and CPU time, of the QR versus the normal equation approach is also evaluated.

  14. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

    OpenAIRE

    A Dehghani; M zahedi; M moezzi; M dafei; H Falahzadeh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective ...

  15. Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

    OpenAIRE

    Pei Pei

    2010-01-01

    This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

  16. Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  18. Prevalence and risk factors of latent Tuberculosis among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    termine the risk factors of prevalent LTBI. We used a mixed effects binomial model with a logarithmic link function to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) for risk fac- tors of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Ethical consideration. The study was approved by the Makerere University. School of Public Health–Higher Degrees and ...

  19. Obstetric spinal hypotension: Preoperative risk factors and the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obstetric spinal hypotension: Preoperative risk factors and the development of a preliminary risk score – the PRAM score. ... We used empirical cut-point estimations in a logistic regression model to develop a scoring system for prediction of hypotension. Results. From 504 eligible patients, preoperative heart rate (odds ratio ...

  20. Longitudinal Factor Score Estimation Using the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Johan H.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    How longitudinal factor score estimation--the estimation of the evolution of factor scores for individual examinees over time--can profit from the Kalman filter technique is described. The Kalman estimates change more cautiously over time, have lower estimation error variances, and reproduce the LISREL program latent state correlations more…

  1. Estimation of foetus risk from x-ray pelvimetric examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iba, Shozo; Sato, Kazuichi

    1983-01-01

    X-ray pelvimetric examinations are carried out for the purpose of diagnosing the cephalo pelvic disproportion at terminal pregnancy and they are still an excellent method, being performed more often than other examinations. However the invitable fetal exposure is considered to be a significant dose and makes an estimation of stochastic fetal risk related to x-ray exposure and to investigate the methods of dose reduction. As the methods judging the exposure dose actually made in the hospitals, a questionnarie regarding the main technical factors of an x-ray examination was given to 26 hospitals, including 5 university hospitals, in Kantou district, and the answeres were analyzed. The estimated risks involving genetics, leukemia and malignant diseases were dependent on the exposure dose which could be calculated on the basis of the technical factors obtained. Total risks on the foetus ranged widely from 1.27 x 10 rad -1 to 1.19 x 10 rad -1 . So for as we have investigated, if all the hospitals used a grid ratio of 5:1, a tube voltage of 120 kV, intensitying screens with rare earth phosphors and green-sensitive orthomatic medical x-ray films for the x-ray pelvimetric examinations, it would be possible to reduce the present exposure dose by one-fourth. The ratio of the x-ray pelvimetry taken on pregnant patients ranged from 2 % to 33 %, having a mean value of 15 %. (author)

  2. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  3. Lower Bounds to the Reliabilities of Factor Score Estimators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessen, David J

    2016-10-06

    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators, Bartlett's factor score estimators, and McDonald's factor score estimators are derived and conditions are given under which these lower bounds are equal. The relative performance of the derived lower bounds is studied using classic example data sets. The results show that estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone's factor score estimators are greater than or equal to the estimates of the lower bounds to the reliabilities of Bartlett's and McDonald's factor score estimators.

  4. Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection among medical students and healthcare workers in Johannesburg, South Africa. A van Rie, K McCarthy, L Scott, A Dow, WDF Venter, WS Stevens ...

  5. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  6. Risk Factors of Entry in Out-of-Home Care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejrnæs, Mette; Ejrnæs, Niels Morten; Frederiksen, Signe

    2011-01-01

    . The mother’s characteristics are more important risk factors than the corresponding risk factors of the father. The results, the applied method and the epidemiological inspired analysis make an opportunity to discuss the central concepts and methods of calculation of statistical association, risk, prediction......This paper presents the results of research on children’s risk of being placed in out-of-home care. The purpose is: firstly, to compare children placed in out-of-home care with non-placed children, secondly, to estimate the children’s risk of entry into care and finally, to compare the results...... of this study with the results from similar studies. The study is based on register data from the Statistics Denmark. The sample includes all children with Danish citizenship who were born 1981–2003. In order to estimate the risk of being placed in out-of-home care, we use information about the child...

  7. Cardiovascular risk factors in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraporti, Marisete Inês; Scherer Adami, Fernanda; Dutra Rosolen, Michele

    2017-10-01

    Systemic hypertension is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Early diagnosis and treatment of hypertension in childhood can potentially have a significant impact on future adverse outcomes. To investigate the relationship of diastolic (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) with anthropometric data and area of residence of children in municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study of 709 children between six and nine years of age. Blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were measured. Statistical tests had a maximum significance level of 5% (p≤0.05) and the software used was SPSS version 13.0. Obesity was significantly associated with pre-hypertension, and stage 1 and 2 hypertension as assessed by DBP and SBP (≤0.05); high WC was significantly associated with a classification of pre-hypertension and stage 1 hypertension based on DBP and a classification of stage 1 and 2 hypertension based on SBP (≤0.01). Children living in urban areas had significantly higher mean SBP than those living in rural areas. Those with high WC presented higher SBP and DBP compared to children with normal WC. Obese children showed higher mean SBP and DBP compared to those who were overweight or normal weight and mean SBP and DBP also increased with older age and higher mean body mass index and WC. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  9. Lower bounds to the reliabilities of factor score estimators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hessen, D.J.

    2017-01-01

    Under the general common factor model, the reliabilities of factor score estimators might be of more interest than the reliability of the total score (the unweighted sum of item scores). In this paper, lower bounds to the reliabilities of Thurstone’s factor score estimators, Bartlett’s factor score

  10. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  11. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  12. Stroke Prevention: Managing Modifiable Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Di Legge

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Prevention plays a crucial role in counteracting morbidity and mortality related to ischemic stroke. It has been estimated that 50% of stroke are preventable through control of modifiable risk factors and lifestyle changes. Antihypertensive treatment is recommended for both prevention of recurrent stroke and other vascular events. The use of antiplatelets and statins has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke and other vascular events. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs are indicated in stroke prevention because they also promote vascular health. Effective secondary-prevention strategies for selected patients include carotid revascularization for high-grade carotid stenosis and vitamin K antagonist treatment for atrial fibrillation. The results of recent clinical trials investigating new anticoagulants (factor Xa inhibitors and direct thrombin inhibitors clearly indicate alternative strategies in stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation. This paper describes the current landscape and developments in stroke prevention with special reference to medical treatment in secondary prevention of ischemic stroke.

  13. Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

  14. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  15. Risk factors for trachoma in Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schémann, J-F; Sacko, D; Malvy, D; Momo, G; Traore, L; Bore, O; Coulibaly, S; Banou, A

    2002-02-01

    Prior to commencing a campaign to eliminate blinding trachoma in Mali, a national disease prevalence survey was conducted from March 1996 to June 1997. The prevalence of trachoma was estimated and potential risk factors were studied. In each of Mali's seven regions (excluding the capital Bamako), a sample of 30 clusters was taken from the general population, in accordance with the principle of probability proportional to the size of the community. All children under 10 years of age were examined. The simplified clinical coding system proposed by the World Health Organization was used. The position of each village was established and subsequently related to the nearest meteorological station. Socioeconomic and environmental information was collected at both village and household level. The mother or caretaker of each child was questioned about availability and use of water for washing the child. At the time of examination, facial cleanliness and the presence of flies on the face were noted. A total of 15,187 children under 10 years of age were examined. The prevalence of active trachoma (follicular [TF] or intense trachoma [TI]) was 34.9% (95% CI : 32.3-37.6) and the prevalence of TI was 4.2% (95% CI : 3.5-5.0). Aridity/environmental dryness appears to be a risk factor influencing the current geographical distribution of trachoma. Small villages had considerably higher trachoma prevalence than their larger neighbours. The proximity of a medical centre and the existence of social organizations such as a women's association were associated with lower levels of trachoma. Crowded living conditions increased the risk. Using a monetary marker of wealth, we observed a linear inverse relation between wealth and trachoma prevalence. The presence of a dirty face was strongly associated with trachoma (odds ratio [OR] = 3.67) as was the presence of flies on the child's face (OR = 3.62). Trachoma prevalence increased with distance to a water source. Disease prevalence decreased

  16. Cardiovascular risk-factor knowledge and risk perception among HIV-infected adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioe, Patricia A; Crawford, Sybil L; Stein, Michael D

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected adults. Research in noninfected populations has suggested that knowledge of CVD risk factors significantly influences perceptions of risk. This cross-sectional study describes CVD risk factor knowledge and risk perception in HIV-infected adults. We recruited 130 HIV-infected adults (mean age = 48 years, 62% male, 56% current smokers, mean years since HIV diagnosis, 14.7). The mean CVD risk factor knowledge score was fairly high. However, controlling for age, CVD risk factor knowledge was not predictive of perceived risk [F(1, 117) = 0.13, p > .05]. Estimated risk and perceived risk were weakly but significantly correlated; r (126) = .24, p = .01. HIV-infected adults are at increased risk for CVD. Despite having adequate risk-factor knowledge, CVD risk perception was inaccurate. Improving risk perception and developing CVD risk reduction interventions for this population are imperative. Copyright © 2014 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Method of risk estimates for genetic, leukemogenic and carcinogenic effects from medical and occupational exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-12-01

    For the risk estimate of fatal malignancies, an effective dose was proposed on the basis of the assumption that the risk should be equal whether the whole body irradiated uniformly or whether there is non-uniform irradiation. The effective dose was defined by the product of organ or tissue doses and a weighting factor representing the proportion of risk factor for a fatal malignancy resulting from organ or tissue irradiation to the total malignant factor. The risk of malignancies can be derived by multiplying the malignant significant factor by the product of the risk factor and the effective dose. For the genetic risk, a significant factor was a relative child expectancy and organ or tissue doses were gonad doses. And, for the leukemogenic risk, a significant factor was the leukemia significant factor and organ or tissue dose was mean bone marrow dose. The present method makes it easy to estimate the risk for individuals and population from medical and occupational exposures. The variation with age and sex of risk rates for stochastic effects was discussed, and the present data on risk rates were compared with the variation of risk rates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

  18. Pediatric unintentional injury: behavioral risk factors and implications for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwebel, David C; Gaines, Joanna

    2007-06-01

    Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death for children and adolescents between the ages of 1 and 18 in the United States, accounting for more deaths than the next 20 causes of mortality combined. It is estimated that pediatric injury accounts for more than $50 billion in annual losses from medical care costs, future wages, and quality of life. Despite these numbers, much remains to be learned about the behavioral risks for pediatric unintentional injury. This article reviews behavioral risk factors for pediatric unintentional injury risk, with a particular focus on four broad areas. First, we discuss the effects of demographic risk factors, including gender, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity. Second, we present information about child-specific risk factors, including temperament, personality, psychopathology, and cognitive development. Third, we discuss the influence of parents and other primary caregivers on childhood injury risk, with a particular focus on the effects of supervision and parenting quality and style. Finally, we discuss the role of peers on child injury risk. We conclude with a discussion of the ways in which the material reviewed has been translated into injury prevention techniques, with a focus on how pediatricians might use knowledge about etiological risk to prioritize safety counseling topics. We also present thoughts on four priorities for future research: injury risk in diverse nations and cultures; developmental effects of injury; the influence of multiple risk factors together on injury risk; and translation of knowledge about risk for injury into intervention and prevention techniques.

  19. Risk factors for cataract: A case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ughade Suresh

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed as a hospital-based, group-matched, case-control investigation into the risk factors associated with age-related cataract in central India. The study included 262 cases of age-related cataract and an equal number of controls. A total of 21 risk factors were evaluated: namely, low socioeconomic status (SES, illiteracy, marital status, history of diarrhoea, history of diabetes, glaucoma, use of cholinesterase inhibitors, steroids, spironolactone, nifedipine, analgesics, myopia early in life, renal failure, heavy smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, hypertension, low body mass index (BMI, use of cheaper cooking fuel, working in direct sunlight, family history of cataract, and occupational exposure. In univariate analysis, except marital status, low BMI, renal failure, use of steroids, spironolactone, analgesics, and occupational exposure, all 14 other risk factors were found significantly associated with age-related cataract. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed the significance of low SES, illiteracy, history of diarrhoea, diabetes, glaucoma, myopia, smoking, hypertension and cheap cooking fuel. The etiological role of these risk factors in the outcome of cataract is confirmed by the estimates of attributable risk proportion. The estimates of population attributable risk proportion for these factors highlight the impact of elimination of these risk factors on the reduction of cataract in this population.

  20. Studies on risk estimation to public from medical radiation (III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hai Yong; Kim, Jong Hyung; Kim, Hyeog Ju; Kim, Ji Soon; Oh, Hyeon Joo; Kim, Cheol Hyeon; Yang, Hyun Kyu [Korea Food and Drug Administraion, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chan Il [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to give representative levels of effective doses to patient for 17 types of CT examination and also representative level of MGD (mean glandular dose) to standard breast for mammography X-ray equipment. The effective doses to patient from 16 CT scanners were estimated from measurement of CTDI (Computed Tomography Dose Index) in air by multiplying conversion coefficients which are specified by National Radiological Protection Board in United Kingdom. The lowest and hightest mean values of effective dose measured to patient from CT scanner were 0.05 mSv for IAM examination and 17.75 mSv for routine abdomen examination, respectively. The average values of 17 effective doses were lower than other results of foreign countrys' surveys. The mean glandular doses to a standard breast for 26 mammography units were estimated from measurement of the air kerma at the surface of a 40 mm plain Perspex phantom by applying conversion factors described in Report 59 of the Institute of Physical Sciences in Medicine of United Kingdom. The exposure factors for this measurement were those used clinically at each hospital. The average MGD to standard breast was 1.06 mGy in units with grid and 0.49 mGy in units without grid. These results are lower than guidance levels by IPSM and AAPM. These results will be used for risk estimation to the Korean public from the medical radiation.

  1. Risk Factors for Depression : Differential Across Age?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaakxs, Roxanne; Comijs, Hannie C; van der Mast, Roos C; Schoevers, Robert A; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of well-established risk factors for depression differs across the lifespan. Risk factors may be more strongly associated with depression at ages when occurrence, and therefore expectance, is relatively low ("on-time off-time" hypothesis). This large-scale study examined

  2. Physical risk factors for neck pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariëns, Geertje A M; Van Mechelen, Willem; Bongers, Paulien M.; Bouter, Lex M.; Van Der Wal, Gerrit

    2000-01-01

    To identify physical risk factors for neck pain, a systematic review of the literature was carried out. Based on methodological quality and study design, 4 levels of evidence were defined to establish the strength of evidence for the relationship between risk factors and neck pain. Altogether, 22

  3. Data collection on risk factors in pregnancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zetstra-van der Woude, Alethea Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    This thesis aims to investigate the different methods of data collection of risk factors in pregnancy. Several observational epidemiologic study designs were used to assess associations between risk factors and negative birth outcomes. We especially looked at the use of folic acid around pregnancy

  4. Transient risk factors of acute occupational injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerlund, Anna H; Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of this study were to (i) identify transient risk factors of occupational injuries and (ii) determine if the risk varies with age, injury severity, job task, and industry risk level. Method A case-crossover design was used to examine the effect of seven specific transient...... risk factors (time pressure, disagreement with someone, feeling sick, being distracted by someone, non-routine task, altered surroundings, and broken machinery and materials) for occupational injuries. In the study, 1693 patients with occupational injuries were recruited from a total of 4002...... in relation to sex, age, job task, industry risk level, or injury severity. Conclusion Use of a case-crossover design identified several worker-related transient risk factors (time pressure, feeling sick, being distracted by someone) that led to significantly increased risks for occupational injuries...

  5. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jangö, Hanna; Langhoff-Roos, J; Rosthøj, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Jangö H, Langhoff-Roos J, Rosthøj S, Sakse A. Risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter ruptures: a population-based cohort study. BJOG 2012;00:000-000 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2012.03486.x. Objective  To determine the incidence and risk factors of recurrent anal sphincter...... were used to determine risk factors of recurrent ASR. Main outcome measures  The incidence of recurrent ASR and odds ratios for possible risk factors of recurrent ASR: age, body mass index, grade of ASR, birthweight, head circumference, gestational age, presentation, induction of labour, oxytocin...... augmentation, epidural, episiotomy, vacuum extraction, forceps, shoulder dystocia, delivery interval and year of second delivery. Results  Out of 159 446 women, 7336 (4.6%) experienced an ASR at first delivery, and 521 (7.1%) had a recurrent ASR (OR 5.91). The risk factors of recurrent ASR in the multivariate...

  6. Contextual factors in liquidity risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonner, C.; van Lelyveld, I.P.P.; Zymek, R.

    2015-01-01

    We assess the determinants of banks’ liquidity holdings using data for nearly 7000 banks from 25 OECD countries. We highlight the role of several bank-specific, institutional and policy variables in shaping banks’ liquidity risk management. Our main question is whether liquidity regulation

  7. Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, F.W.

    1979-01-01

    The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)

  8. Intrinsic Risk Factors of Falls in Elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmin Amatullah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Falls are common geriatric problems. The risk factors of falls are the intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors. Studies on falls are scarcely conducted in Indonesia, especially in Bandung. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the intrinsic risk factors of falls among elderly. Methods: A descriptive study was carried out from August to October 2013 at the Geriatric Clinic of Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung. Fifty three participants were selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria using consecutive sampling. The determined variables in this study were classification of the risk of falls, demographic profile, history of falls, disease, and medications. After the selection, the participants were tested by Timed up-and-go test (TUGT. Moreover, an interview and analysis of medical records were carried out to discover the risk factors of falls. The collected data were analyzed and presented in the form of percentages shown in tables. Results: From 53 patients, women (35.66% were considered to have higher risk of fall than men (18.34%. The majority of patients (66% with the risk of fall were from the age group 60–74 years. The major diseases suffered by patients were hypertension, osteoarthritis and diabetes mellitus. Drugs that were widely used were antihypertensive drugs; analgesic and antipyretic drugs and antidiabetic drugs. Conclusions: There are various intrinsic risk factors of falls in elderly and each of the elderly has more than one intrinsic risk factor of falls.

  9. The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

  10. Quick test for durability factor estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    The Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT) is considering the use of the AASHTO T 161 Durability Factor (DF) as an endresult : performance specification criterion for evaluation of paving concrete. However, the test method duration can exceed ...

  11. Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.

    2017-08-01

    The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.

  12. Risk factors for recurrent nerve palsy after thyroid surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godballe, Christian; Madsen, Anders Rørbæk; Sørensen, Christian Hjort

    2014-01-01

    Recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) injury is a well-known and serious complication to thyroid surgery. The objective was to estimate the frequency of post-thyroidectomy RLN palsy and to identify possible risk factors. Based on the Danish national thyroid surgery database, 6,859 patients treated...... predominant risk factors with a relative risk (RR) of 5.4 and 5.8, respectively. In benign cases previous performed thyroid surgery had a RR of 10.4. High volume departments with more than 150 thyroid procedures per year seem to perform significantly better. Malignant histology, neck dissection and previous...

  13. Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

    2011-01-01

    When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

  14. Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

    2009-01-01

    Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

  15. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  16. Integrated traffic conflict model for estimating crash modification factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdah, Usama; Saccomanno, Frank; Persaud, Bhagwant

    2014-10-01

    Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are usually obtained through observational models based on reported crashes. Observational Bayesian before-and-after methods have been applied to obtain more precise estimates of CMFs by accounting for the regression-to-the-mean bias inherent in naive methods. However, sufficient crash data reported over an extended period of time are needed to provide reliable estimates of treatment effects, a requirement that can be a challenge for certain types of treatment. In addition, these studies require that sites analyzed actually receive the treatment to which the CMF pertains. Another key issue with observational approaches is that they are not causal in nature, and as such, cannot provide a sound "behavioral" rationale for the treatment effect. Surrogate safety measures based on high risk vehicle interactions and traffic conflicts have been proposed to address this issue by providing a more "causal perspective" on lack of safety for different road and traffic conditions. The traffic conflict approach has been criticized, however, for lacking a formal link to observed and verified crashes, a difficulty that this paper attempts to resolve by presenting and investigating an alternative approach for estimating CMFs using simulated conflicts that are linked formally to observed crashes. The integrated CMF estimates are compared to estimates from an empirical Bayes (EB) crash-based before-and-after analysis for the same sample of treatment sites. The treatment considered involves changing left turn signal priority at Toronto signalized intersections from permissive to protected-permissive. The results are promising in that the proposed integrated method yields CMFs that closely match those obtained from the crash-based EB before-and-after analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Smoldering multiple myeloma risk factors for progression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørrig, Rasmus; Klausen, Tobias W; Salomo, Morten

    2016-01-01

    Several risk scores for disease progression in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma (SMM) patients have been proposed, however, all have been developed using single center registries. To examine risk factors for time to progression (TTP) to Multiple Myeloma (MM) for SMM we analyzed a nationwide population......-based cohort of 321 newly diagnosed SMM patients registered within the Danish Multiple Myeloma Registry between 2005 and 2014. Significant univariable risk factors for TTP were selected for multivariable Cox regression analyses. We found that both an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis significantly influenced......-high risk of transformation to MM. Using only immunoparesis and M-protein ≥ 30g/l, we created a scoring system to identify low, intermediate and high risk SMM. This first population-based study of SMM patients confirms that an M-protein ≥ 30g/l and immunoparesis remain important risk factors for progression...

  18. Musculoskeletal Risk Factors in the Young Athlete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskwa, C A; Nicholas, J A; Goldberg, B

    1989-11-01

    In brief: Many children and adolescents participate in sports that put them at risk for musculoskeletal injuries. Underlying physical conditions, or risk factors, may predispose them to particular types of sports injuries. Research shows that these risk factors fall into five categories: body type, flexibility, muscle strength, inadequate rehabilitation of a previous injury, and skeletal malalignment and anomalies. Some findings show, for example, that youthful football players who are also heavy have an increased rate of injury, sprains and strains are less common in flexible athletes, and patellar pain or subluxation may be related to a variety of malalignment factors. The authors recommend using a systematic, integrated approach to risk assessment of the athlete, both for detecting risk factors and determining their potential for con tribu ting to a sports injury.

  19. ESTIMATION OF AMPLIFICATION FACTOR IN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazarov Yuriy Pavlovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors are the developers of Odyssey Software (Eurosoft Co. for the analysis of seismological data and computing of seismic loads and their parameters. While communicating with the users of the software, the authors have revealed some uncertainty about both understanding of the term "amplification factor (AF" and calculation of the amplification factor using various methods. In this article, a simple example shows that the determination of the amplification factor as the ratio of the acceleration’s spectrum to the maximal acceleration is derived from the classical definition of AF in the form of the ratio of maximal dynamic displacement to the displacement by the action of static load. Deterministic and probabilistic ap-proaches for the calculating of the AF were discussed. There was an example of AFs calculation and their envelopes for translational and rotational components of seismic impact by using Odyssey Software.

  20. HUMAN PROSTATE CANCER RISK FACTORS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostate cancer has the highest prevalence of any non-skin cancer in the human body, with similar likelihood of neoplastic foci found within the prostates of men around the world regardless of diet, occupation, lifestyle, or other factors. Essentially all men with circulating an...

  1. Psychological Risk Factors in Headache

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Robert A.; Houle, Timothy T.; Rhudy, Jamie L.; Norton, Peter J.

    2008-01-01

    Headache is a chronic disease that occurs with varying frequency and results in varying levels of disability. To date, the majority of research and clinical focus has been on the role of biological factors in headache and headache-related disability. However, reliance on a purely biomedical model of headache does not account for all aspects of headache and associated disability. Using a biopsychosocial framework, the current manuscript expands the view of what factors influence headache by considering the role psychological (i.e., cognitive and affective) factors have in the development, course, and consequences of headache. The manuscript initially reviews evidence showing that neural circuits responsible for cognitive–affective phenomena are highly interconnected with the circuitry responsible for headache pain. The manuscript then reviews the influence cognitions (locus of control and self-efficacy) and negative affect (depression, anxiety, and anger) have on the development of headache attacks, perception of headache pain, adherence to prescribed treatment, headache treatment outcome, and headache-related disability. The manuscript concludes with a discussion of the clinical implications of considering psychological factors when treating headache. PMID:17371358

  2. Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

  3. Risk factors for skin cancer among Finnish airline cabin crew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojo, Katja; Helminen, Mika; Pukkala, Eero; Auvinen, Anssi

    2013-07-01

    Increased incidence of skin cancers among airline cabin crew has been reported in several studies. We evaluated whether the difference in risk factor prevalence between Finnish airline cabin crew and the general population could explain the increased incidence of skin cancers among cabin crew, and the possible contribution of estimated occupational cosmic radiation exposure. A self-administered questionnaire survey on occupational, host, and ultraviolet radiation exposure factors was conducted among female cabin crew members and females presenting the general population. The impact of occupational cosmic radiation dose was estimated in a separate nested case-control analysis among the participating cabin crew (with 9 melanoma and 35 basal cell carcinoma cases). No considerable difference in the prevalence of risk factors of skin cancer was found between the cabin crew (N = 702) and the general population subjects (N = 1007) participating the study. The mean risk score based on all the conventional skin cancer risk factors was 1.43 for cabin crew and 1.44 for general population (P = 0.24). Among the cabin crew, the estimated cumulative cosmic radiation dose was not related to the increased skin cancer risk [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57-1.00]. The highest plausible risk of skin cancer for estimated cosmic radiation dose was estimated as 9% per 10 mSv. The skin cancer cases had higher host characteristics scores than the non-cases among cabin crew (adjusted OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01-2.04). Our results indicate no difference between the female cabin crew and the general female population in the prevalence of factors generally associated with incidence of skin cancer. Exposure to cosmic radiation did not explain the excess of skin cancer among the studied cabin crew in this study.

  4. Risk factors of coercion among psychiatric inpatients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Christoffer; Starkopf, Liis; Hastrup, Lene Halling

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Reducing the use of coercion among patients with mental disorders has long been a political priority. However, risk factors for coercive measures have primarily been investigated in smaller studies. To reduce the use of coercion, it is crucial to identify people at risk which we aim to do...... and having children, reduced the risk of being subjected to coercive measure (all p risk factors associated with coercive measures. Our findings can assist researchers in identifying patients at risk of coercion and thereby help...... measure (21.9%). Clinical characteristics were the foremost predictors of coercion and patients with organic mental disorder had the highest increased risk of being subjected to a coercive measure (OR = 5.56; 95% CI = 5.04, 6.14). The risk of coercion was the highest in the first admission and decreased...

  5. Risk factors for miscarriage from a prevention perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, Sandra Feodor; Andersen, Per Kragh; Strandberg-Larsen, K

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify modifiable risk factors for miscarriage and to estimate the preventable proportion of miscarriages that could be attributed to these. DESIGN: Nationwide observational follow-up study. SETTING: Denmark. POPULATION: Ninety-one thousand four hundred and twenty seven pregnancies...... included in the Danish National Birth Cohort between 1996 and 2002. METHODS: Information on potentially modifiable risk factors before and during pregnancy was collected by means of computer-assisted telephone interviews and linkage with Danish registers, ensuring almost complete follow-up of pregnancy...... outcome. Modifiable risk factors for miscarriage were identified by multiple Cox regression analysis, which provided the background for our estimations of population attributable fractions. In all, 88 373 pregnancies had full information on all covariates and were included in this analysis. MAIN OUTCOME...

  6. Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed

  7. Risk estimation for LCF crack initiation

    OpenAIRE

    Schmitz, Sebastian; Rollmann, Georg; Gottschalk, Hanno; Krause, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    An accurate risk assessment for fatigue damage is of vital importance for the design and service of today's turbomachinery components. We present an approach for quantifying the probability of crack initiation due to surface driven low-cycle fatigue (LCF). This approach is based on the theory of failure-time processes and takes inhomogeneous stress fields and size effects into account. The method has been implemented as a finite-element postprocessor which uses quadrature formulae of higher o...

  8. Prevalence and risk factors for Ascaris and Cryptosporidium ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diseases in particular parasitic infestation is among the drawbacks to profitable pig production since parasites compromise the production and reproduction performance of infested pigs. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for Ascaris and Cryptosporidium infestations in pigs ...

  9. Prevalence and risk factors for Active Convulsive Epilepsy in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: epilepsy is common in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is little data in West Africa, to develop public health measures for epilepsy in this region. Methods: we conducted a three-stage cross-sectional survey to determine the prevalence and risk factors for active convulsive epilepsy (ACE), and estimated the ...

  10. Risk factors for discordant immune response among HIV-infected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors for discordant immune response among HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy: A retrospective cohort study. ... Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) to determine associations between discordant immune response and clinical and demographic ...

  11. Factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1988-11-01

    The collective influence of biologic and physical factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer introduces uncertainties sufficient to deny precision of estimates of human cancer risk that can be calculated for low-dose radiation in exposed populations. The important biologic characteristics include the tissue sites and cell types, baseline cancer incidence, minimum latent period, time-to-tumor recognition, and the influence of individual host (age and sex) and competing etiologic influences. Physical factors include radiation dose, dose rate, and radiation quality. Statistical factors include time-response projection models, risk coefficients, and dose-response relationships. Other modifying factors include other carcinogens, and other biological sources (hormonal status, immune status, hereditary factors)

  12. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  13. Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

  14. Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Diabetic ketoacidosis: risk factors, mechanisms and management strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a review. ... ketoacidosis is the most common hyperglycaemic emergency in patients with diabetes mellitus, especially type 1 diabetes.

  15. risk factors for abnormal tubal hysterosalpingographic findings

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    So many presumed risk factors for female tubal infertility are seen among. Nigerian women. ... strategies such as health awareness campaigns against unwanted pregnancy, promotion of responsible ..... of CT findings in acute pyogenic pelvic.

  16. Shoulder Dystocia: Incidence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounian, Joseph G

    2016-12-01

    Shoulder dystocia complicates ∼1% of vaginal births. Although fetal macrosomia and maternal diabetes are risk factors for shoulder dystocia, for the most part its occurrence remains largely unpredictable and unpreventable.

  17. Risk Factors for Developing Atopic Dermatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    G. Carson, Charlotte

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this thesis was to investigate possible risk factors affecting the development of AD. AD is a frequent disease among children and has a substantial impact on the lives of both the child and its family. A better understanding of the disease would enable better treatment, prevention...... and information to the families involved. Previous risk factor studies have been hampered by an unsuitable study design and/or difficulties in standardization when diagnosing AD, which limit their conclusions. In paper I, we conducted a traditional cross-sectional analysis testing 40 possible risk factors...... exposure to dog was the only environmental exposure that significantly reduced the disease manifestation, suggesting other, yet unknown environmental factors affecting the increasing prevalence of AD in children. Length at birth was shown to be inversely associated with the risk of later developing AD...

  18. Awareness of risk factors for cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada

    2015-01-01

    Background: Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare...... awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Methods: Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults...... in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors...

  19. THE RISK FACTORS FOR INITIAL REPRODUCTIVE LOSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Екатерина Игоревна Лебедева

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion. Mixed somatic and gynecological pathology, abnormalities in hemostasis, combination of inherited and acquired thrombogenic risk factors dominates in women with initial reproductive loss, though only 37,3 % such pregnancies have favorable outcome.

  20. Human factors estimation methods using physiological informations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takano, Ken-ichi; Yoshino, Kenji; Nakasa, Hiroyasu

    1984-01-01

    To enhance the operational safety in the nuclear power plant, it is necessary to decrease abnormal phenomena due to human errors. Especially, it is essential to basically understand human behaviors under the work environment for plant maintenance workers, inspectors, and operators. On the above stand point, this paper presents the results of literature survey on the present status of human factors engineering technology applicable to the nuclear power plant and also discussed the following items: (1) Application fields where the ergonomical evaluation is needed for workers safety. (2) Basic methodology for investigating the human performance. (3) Features of the physiological information analysis among various types of ergonomical techniques. (4) Necessary conditions for the application of in-situ physiological measurement to the nuclear power plant. (5) Availability of the physiological information analysis. (6) Effectiveness of the human factors engineering methodology, especially physiological information analysis in the case of application to the nuclear power plant. The above discussions lead to the demonstration of high applicability of the physiological information analysis to nuclear power plant, in order to improve the work performance. (author)

  1. Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

    2018-04-01

    The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

  2. Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim

    market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions.......We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...

  3. Validating diagnoses from hospital discharge registers change risk estimates for acute coronary syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Albert Marni; Schmidt, E.B.; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2007-01-01

    of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) diagnoses identified in a hospital discharge register changed the relative risk estimates of well-established risk factors for ACS. Methods All first-time ACS diagnoses (n=1138) in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified among male participants in the Danish...

  4. Estimating and comparing risks in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llewellyn, Gareth

    1998-01-01

    The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector

  5. Preventing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors through Aerobic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper focused on the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk factors, through aerobic exercises. The central argument here is that through exercise there is the tendency for increased strength of the heart muscles. When this is the case, what follows is a reduction in body weight and ultimately less risk on the ...

  6. Risk factors in prevention of drug dependences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orosova, Ol'ga; Gajdosova, Beata; Madarasova-Geckova, Andrea; Van Dijk, Jitse P.

    2007-01-01

    The study presents the state-of-art of knowledge of risk factors of drug use as a form of risk behaviour in adolescents in individual, interpersonal, and environmental domain (family, school, society). The attention is paid to general deviation syndrome and to the construct of general tendency to

  7. Risk factors for QTc interval prolongation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemskerk, Charlotte P.M.; Pereboom, Marieke; van Stralen, Karlijn; Berger, Florine A.; van den Bemt, Patricia M.L.A.; Kuijper, Aaf F.M.; van der Hoeven, Ruud T M; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K.; Becker, Matthijs L

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: Prolongation of the QTc interval may result in Torsade de Pointes, a ventricular arrhythmia. Numerous risk factors for QTc interval prolongation have been described, including the use of certain drugs. In clinical practice, there is much debate about the management of the risks involved. In

  8. Osteoporosis Risk Factors in Eighth Grade Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lysen, Victoria C.; Walker, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Presents findings from food frequency questionnaires and surveys of 138 Midwestern eighth-grade student-parent pairs. The study examined the incidence of modifiable and nonmodifiable osteoporosis risk factors and compared gender differences. Data analysis indicated that many adolescents possessed several modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors…

  9. Risk Factors for Homelessness Among US Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Jack; Rosenheck, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    Homelessness among US veterans has been a focus of research for over 3 decades. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, this is the first systematic review to summarize research on risk factors for homelessness among US veterans and to evaluate the evidence for these risk factors. Thirty-one studies published from 1987 to 2014 were divided into 3 categories: more rigorous studies, less rigorous studies, and studies comparing homeless veterans with homeless nonveterans. The strongest and most consistent risk factors were substance use disorders and mental illness, followed by low income and other income-related factors. There was some evidence that social isolation, adverse childhood experiences, and past incarceration were also important risk factors. Veterans, especially those who served since the advent of the all-volunteer force, were at greater risk for homelessness than other adults. Homeless veterans were generally older, better educated, and more likely to be male, married/have been married, and to have health insurance coverage than other homeless adults. More studies simultaneously addressing premilitary, military, and postmilitary risk factors for veteran homelessness are needed. This review identifies substance use disorders, mental illness, and low income as targets for policies and programs in efforts to end homelessness among veterans. PMID:25595171

  10. Risk factors predisposing to congenital heart defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ul Haq, Faheem; Jalil, Fatima; Hashmi, Saman; Jumani, Maliha Iqbal; Imdad, Aamer; Jabeen, Mehnaz; Hashmi, Javad Tauseef; Irfan, Furqan Bin; Imran, Muhammad; Atiq, Mehnaz

    2011-01-01

    Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with multiple risk factors, consanguinity may be one such significant factor. The role of consanguinity in the etiology of CHD is supported by inbreeding studies, which demonstrate an autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance of some congenital heart defects. This study was done to find out the risk factors for CHD. A case-control study was done on pediatric patients at a tertiary care hospital, Aga Khan University Hospital, located in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 500 patients, 250 cases and 250 controls were included in the study. Amongst the 250 cases (i.e. those diagnosed with CHD), 122 patients (48.8%) were born of consanguineous marriages while in the controls (i.e. non-CHD) only 72 patients (28.9%) showed a consanguinity amongst parents. On multivariate analysis, consanguinity emerged as an independent risk factor for CHD; adjusted odds ratio 2.59 (95% C. I. 1.73 - 3.87). Other risk factors included low birth weight, maternal co-morbidities, family history of CHD and first born child. On the other hand, medications used by the mother during the index pregnancy, maternal age and gender of the child did not significantly increase the risk of developing CHD. Analyses of our results show that parental consanguinity, family history of CHD, maternal co-morbidities, first born child and low birth weight are independent risk factors for CHD

  11. Atrial fibrillation and bleeding complication - risk factors and risk marker

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breithardt, G.; Ravens, U.; Kirchhof, P.; van Gelder, I. C.

    2012-01-01

    The development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is closely linked to risk factors like hypertension and heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction and valvular heart disease. These factors partly overlap with those which determine the progression of atrial fibrillation and the incidence of

  12. Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng

    2016-09-01

    Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

  13. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. An interim UK response to revised risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)

  15. ICRP risk estimates - an alternative view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, K.Z.

    1987-01-01

    This criticism of the worth of the ICRP Main Commission spans 60 years, reviewed by a member of the Commission. Beginning in 1960 two serious radiation exposure problems (occupational exposure in uranium mines and population exposure from testing of nuclear weapons) came to their attention. One might have expected ICRP to be the first to try to reduce these exposures but it was conspicuous by its silence. In 1958 ICRP set limits of exposure for radiation workers and member of the public. Nineteen years later (1977) when it was realized that the risk of radiation induced cancer was ten to thirty times what it was perceived to be in 1958, ICRP might have been expected to recommend a major reduction in permissible exposure levels, but to the dismay of some it increased them. It was also a great disappointment when in 1977, levels of MPC of radionuclides in air, water and food were increased for a large fraction of the more dangerous radionuclides. The reactor accident at Chernobyl calls for a number of new ICRP recommendations. When can we expect them? (author)

  16. Modifiable risk factors for schizophrenia and autism--shared risk factors impacting on brain development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlyn, Jess; Duhig, Michael; McGrath, John; Scott, James

    2013-05-01

    Schizophrenia and autism are two poorly understood clinical syndromes that differ in age of onset and clinical profile. However, recent genetic and epidemiological research suggests that these two neurodevelopmental disorders share certain risk factors. The aims of this review are to describe modifiable risk factors that have been identified in both disorders, and, where available, collate salient systematic reviews and meta-analyses that have examined shared risk factors. Based on searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO, inspection of review articles and expert opinion, we first compiled a set of candidate modifiable risk factors associated with autism. Where available, we next collated systematic-reviews (with or without meta-analyses) related to modifiable risk factors associated with both autism and schizophrenia. We identified three modifiable risk factors that have been examined in systematic reviews for both autism and schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age was reported as a risk factor for schizophrenia in a single meta-analysis and as a risk factor in two meta-analyses for autism. With respect to pregnancy and birth complications, for autism one meta-analysis identified maternal diabetes and bleeding during pregnancy as risks factors for autism whilst a meta-analysis of eight studies identified obstetric complications as a risk factor for schizophrenia. Migrant status was identified as a risk factor for both autism and schizophrenia. Two separate meta-analyses were identified for each disorder. Despite distinct clinical phenotypes, the evidence suggests that at least some non-genetic risk factors are shared between these two syndromes. In particular, exposure to drugs, nutritional excesses or deficiencies and infectious agents lend themselves to public health interventions. Studies are now needed to quantify any increase in risk of either autism or schizophrenia that is associated with these modifiable environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc

  17. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  18. Risk factors in neuroleptic malignant syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vinay; Magon, Rakesh; Mishra, B P; Sidhu, G B S; Mahajan, Ranjiv

    2003-01-01

    Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is an uncommon but potentially serious idiosyncratic response to neuroleptic antipsychotics. It usually affects young males, but the risk has been seen to increase with certain factors including the administration practices of antipsychotic neuroleptics in these individuals. Even though no predictors for NMS are yet known, this article highlights the findings on certain risk factors as seen from a series of fifteen patients who developed NMS. Cautious use of neuroleptics in those at risk, early recognition and institution of immediate management is important.

  19. Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janoutová, J.; Janáčková, P.; Šerý, Omar; Zeman, T.; Ambrož, P.; Kovalová, M.; Vařechová, K.; Hosák, L.; Jiřík, V.; Janout, V.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 1 (2016), s. 1-8 ISSN 0172-780X R&D Projects: GA MZd NT14504 Institutional support: RVO:67985904 Keywords : schizophrenia * risk factors * epidemiology Subject RIV: FQ - Public Health Care, Social Medicine Impact factor: 0.918, year: 2016

  20. Osteonecrosis. Part 1. Risk factors and pathogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Valeriyevna Ilyinykh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers different risk factors for osteonecrosis (ON and some aspects of its pathogenesis: impairments in the differentiation of stromal cells, the vascular provision of intraand extravasal genesis, the quality of proper bone tissue due to generalized or local osteoporosis, intravascular coagulation factors contributing to microthrombogenesis. The basic types of ON are identified.

  1. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  2. Cardiovascular risk factors and collateral artery formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, D; Pasterkamp, G; Hoefer, I E

    2009-12-01

    Arterial lumen narrowing and vascular occlusion is the actual cause of morbidity and mortality in atherosclerotic disease. Collateral artery formation (arteriogenesis) refers to an active remodelling of non-functional vascular anastomoses to functional collateral arteries, capable to bypass the site of obstruction and preserve the tissue that is jeopardized by ischaemia. Hemodynamic forces such as shear stress and wall stress play a pivotal role in collateral artery formation, accompanied by the expression of various cytokines and invasion of circulating leucocytes. Arteriogenesis hence represents an important compensatory mechanism for atherosclerotic vessel occlusion. As arteriogenesis mostly occurs when lumen narrowing by atherosclerotic plaques takes place, presence of cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes) is highly likely. Risk factors for atherosclerotic disease affect collateral artery growth directly and indirectly by altering hemodynamic forces or influencing cellular function and proliferation. Adequate collateralization varies significantly among atherosclerotic patients, some profit from the presence of extensive collateral networks, whereas others do not. Cardiovascular risk factors could increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in certain patients because of the reduced protection through an alternative vascular network. Likewise, drugs primarily thought to control cardiovascular risk factors might contribute or counteract collateral artery growth. This review summarizes current knowledge on the influence of cardiovascular risk factors and the effects of cardiovascular medication on the development of collateral vessels in experimental and clinical studies.

  3. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  4. Prevalence of health risk factors among fishermen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frantzeskou, Elpida; Jensen, Olaf; Linos, Athena

    2014-01-01

    Background Studies have shown that fishermen have a higher mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer and accidents. The majority of cardiovascular disease is caused by external risk factors such as the diet, tobacco, alcohol and lack of physical activity. The purpose of this paper...... was to review the available information on the prevalence of these preventable risk factors in order to strengthen the preventive strategies. Methods A search for the last decade was done via Medline, Google and Google Scholar with the keywords "diet, tobacco, alcohol, physical exercise, overweight....... Of the Danish fishermen 25%-, 34% and 37% were obese in the 18-24, 25-44 and 45-64 years age groups. Conclusion Health risk factors among fishermen need to be highlighted and further investigated as they represent occupational risks of major impact to chronic diseases prevalence with projections to quality...

  5. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  6. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, David T; Fillit, Howard

    2006-04-15

    The role of cardiovascular disease risk factors in the occurrence and progression of cognitive impairment has been the subject of a significant number of publications but has not achieved widespread recognition among many physicians and educated laymen. It is apparent that the active treatment of certain of these cardiovascular disease risk factors is accompanied by a reduced risk for cognitive impairment. Patients with hypertension who are treated experience fewer cardiovascular disease events as well as less cognitive impairment than similar untreated patients. Patients who exercise may present with less cognitive impairment, and obesity may increase the risk for cognitive impairment. Lipid abnormalities and genetic markers are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cognitive impairment. Autopsy studies have demonstrated a correlation between elevated levels of cholesterol and amyloid deposition in the brain. Research has demonstrated a relation between atherosclerotic obstruction lesions in the circle of Willis and dementia. Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cognitive impairment. A number of nonpharmacologic factors have a role in reducing the risk for cognitive impairment. Antioxidants, fatty acids, and micronutrients may have a role, and diets rich in fruits and vegetables and other dietary approaches may improve the outlook for patients considered at risk for cognitive impairment.

  7. [Environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilain, J; Galliot, A-M; Durand-Roger, J; Leboyer, M; Llorca, P-M; Schürhoff, F; Szöke, A

    2013-02-01

    Evidence of variations in schizophrenia incidence rates has been found in genetically homogenous populations, depending on changes within time or space of certain environmental characteristics. The consideration of the impact of environmental risk factors in etiopathogenic studies has put the environment in the forefront of research regarding psychotic illnesses. Various environmental factors such as urbanicity, migration, cannabis, childhood traumas, infectious agents, obstetrical complications and psychosocial factors have been associated with the risk of developing schizophrenia. These risk factors can be biological, physical, psychological as well as social and may operate at different times in an individual's life (fetal period, childhood, adolescence and early adulthood). Whilst some of these factors act on an individual level, others act on a populational level, modulating the individual risk. These factors can have a direct action on the development of schizophrenia, or on the other hand act as markers for directly implicated factors that have not yet been identified. This article summarizes the current knowledge on this subject. An extensive literature search was conducted via the search engine Pubmed. Eight risk factors were selected and developed in the following paper: urbanicity (or living in an urban area), cannabis, migration (and ethnic density), obstetrical complications, seasonality of birth, infectious agents (and inflammatory responses), socio-demographic factors and childhood traumas. For each of these factors, we provide information on the importance of the risk, the vulnerability period, hypotheses made on the possible mechanisms behind the factors and the level of proof the current research offers (good, medium, or insufficient) according to the amount, type, quality and concordance of the studies at hand. Some factors, such as cannabis, are "unique" in their influence on the development of schizophrenia since it labels only one risk factor

  8. Cardiovascular risk factors and disease in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sharon K

    2015-05-01

    Coronary artery disease and stroke predominantly affect older women as opposed to younger women, but the risk factors that contribute to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk often start in young women. Young women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), with migraine, and who use oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) have short-term increases in thrombotic complications that can result in coronary events or stroke. Attention should be focused on risk reduction in women of all ages. Screening for and discussing diabetes, hypertension, obesity, smoking, migraine, PCOS, and pregnancy complication history and discussing the pros and cons of hormone and statin medications are part of reducing cardiovascular risk for women. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  10. Risk factors for recurrent spontaneous epistaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrich, Victor; Brozek, Annabelle; Boyle, Timothy R; Chyou, Po-Huang; Yale, Steven H

    2014-12-01

    To identify risk factors associated with spontaneous recurrent epistaxis. This was a retrospective cohort study assessing patients in the Marshfield Clinic system diagnosed as having epistaxis between January 1, 1991, and January 1, 2011. There were 461 cases with at least 2 episodes of spontaneous epistaxis within 3 years and 912 controls with only 1 episode in the same time frame. More than 50 potential risk factors were investigated, including demographic features, substance use, nasal anatomical abnormalities, nasal infectious and inflammatory processes, medical comorbidities, medications, and laboratory values. A Cox proportional hazards regression modeling approach was used to calculate hazard ratios of epistaxis recurrence. Traditional risk factors for epistaxis, including nasal perforation, nasal septum deviation, rhinitis, sinusitis, and upper respiratory tract infection, did not increase the risk of recurrence. Significant risk factors for recurrent epistaxis included congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and a history of anemia. Warfarin use increased the risk of recurrence, independent of international normalized ratio. Aspirin and clopidogrel were not found to increase the risk of recurrence. Few major adverse cardiovascular events were observed within 30 days of the first epistaxis event. Congestive heart failure is an underappreciated risk factor for recurrent epistaxis. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus may induce atherosclerotic changes in the nasal vessels, making them friable and more at risk for bleeding. Patients with recurrent epistaxis may also be more susceptible to developing anemia. Physicians should promote antiplatelet and antithrombotic medication adherence despite an increased propensity for recurrent epistaxis to prevent major adverse cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. External risk factors affecting construction costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubarak, Husin, Saiful; Oktaviati, Mutia

    2017-11-01

    Some risk factors can have impacts on the cost, time, and performance. Results of previous studies indicated that the external conditions are among the factors which give effect to the contractor in the completion of the project. The analysis in the study carried out by considering the conditions of the project in the last 15 years in Aceh province, divided into military conflict phase (2000-2004), post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2005-2009), and post-rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2010-present). This study intended to analyze the impact of external risk factors, primarily related to the impact on project costs and to investigate the influence of the risk factors and construction phases impacted the project cost. Data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed in 15 large companies qualification contractors in Aceh province. Factors analyzed consisted of socio-political, government policies, natural disasters, and monetary conditions. Data were analyzed using statistical application of severity index to measure the level of risk impact. The analysis results presented the tendency of impact on cost can generally be classified as low. There is only one variable classified as high-impact, variable `fuel price increases', which appear on the military conflict and post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction periods. The risk impact on costs from the factors and variables classified with high intensity needs a serious attention, especially when the high level impact is followed by the high frequency of occurrences.

  12. [Identification of risk factors for congenital malformations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canals C, Andrea; Cavada C, Gabriel; Nazer H, Julio

    2014-11-01

    The relative importance of congenital malformations as a cause of death in the first year of life is increasing along with the control of preventable causes of perinatal mortality. To identify risk factors for congenital malformations. Retrospective case-control study of births registered in the database of The Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC), in the period 2001-2010. Birth weight and gestational age were significantly lower in cases than controls, behaving as risk factors and associated with a greater severity of congenital malformations. The risk and severity of congenital malformations increased along with mother's age. Fetal growth retardation, a history of congenital malformations in the family, physical factors and acute illnesses of the mother in the first trimester of pregnancy were also significant risk factors for congenital malformations and their severity. The educational level of the mother was a protective factor for congenital malformations and their severity. Variables previously identified as risk factors for congenital malformations, were significantly related with the occurrence of congenital malformations and their severity.

  13. Biological risk factors for deep vein trombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vayá, Amparo; Mira, Yolanda; Martínez, Marcial; Villa, Piedad; Ferrando, Fernando; Estellés, Amparo; Corella, Dolores; Aznar, Justo

    2002-01-01

    Hypercoagulable states due either to inherited or acquired thrombotic risk factors are only present in approximately half of cases of DVT, but the causes in the other half, remain unknown. The importance of biological risk factors such as hyperlipidemia, hypofibrinolysis and hemorheological alterations in the pathogenesis of DVT has not been well established. In order to ascertain whether the above mentioned biological factors are associated with DVT and could constitute independent risk factors, we carried out a case-control study in 109 first DVT patients in whom inherited or acquired thrombophilic risk factors had been ruled out and 121 healthy controls age (42+/-15 years) and sex matched. From all the biological variables analyzed (cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, fibrinogen, erythrocyte aggregation, hematocrit, plasma viscosity and PAI-1) only fibrinogen concentration reached a statistically significant difference on the comparison of means (290+/-73 mg/dl in cases vs 268+/-58 mg/dl in controls, p220 mg/dl, hematocrit >45% and fibrinogen >300 mg/dl was higher in cases than in controls: 38% vs 22%; p30 ng/ml, 37% vs 25% was borderline significant; p=0.055. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that cholesterolemia >220 mg/dl and fibrinogen >300 mg/dl constitute independent predictors of venous thrombotic risk. The adjusted OR's were 2.03 (95% CI; 1.12-3.70) for cholesterolemia and 1.94 (95% CI; 1.07-3.55) for fibrinogen. When these two variables combined DVT risk rose about fourfold (3.96; p<0.05). Our results suggest that hypercholesterolemia and hyperfibrinogenemia should be added to the list of known DVT risk factors and we recommend adopting measures to decrease these variables in the population with a high risk of DVT.

  14. Smoking among American adolescents: a risk and protective factor analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scal, Peter; Ireland, Marjorie; Borowsky, Iris Wagman

    2003-04-01

    Cigarette smoking remains a substantial threat to the current and future health of America's youth. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk and protective factors for cigarette smoking among US adolescents. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health was used, comparing the responses of all non-smokers at Time 1 for their ability to predict the likelihood of smoking at Time 2, one year later. Data was stratified into four gender by grade group cohorts. Cross-cutting risk factors for smoking among all four cohorts were: using alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs; violence involvement; having had sex; having friends who smoke and learning problems. Having a higher grade point average and family connectedness were protective across all cohorts. Other gender and grade group specific risk and protective factors were identified. The estimated probability of initiating smoking decreased by 19.2% to 54.1% both in situations of high and low risk as the number of protective factors present increased. Of the factors that predict or protect against smoking some are influential across all gender and grade group cohorts studied, while others are specific to gender and developmental stage. Prevention efforts that target both the reduction of risk factors and enhancement of protective factors at the individual, family, peer group and community are likely to reduce the likelihood of smoking initiation.

  15. Risk factors for first time incidence sciatica: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Chad E; Taylor, Jeffrey; Wright, Alexis; Milosavljevic, Steven; Goode, Adam; Whitford, Maureen

    2014-06-01

    Characteristically, sciatica involves radiating leg pain that follows a dermatomal pattern along the distribution of the sciatic nerve. To our knowledge, there are no studies that have investigated risk factors associated with first time incidence sciatica. The purpose of the systematic review was to identify the longitudinal risk factors associated with first time incidence sciatica and to report incidence rates for the condition. For the purposes of this review, first time incidence sciatica was defined as either of the following: 1) no prior history of sciatica or 2) transition from a pain-free state to sciatica. Studies included subjects of any age from longitudinal, observational, cohort designs. The study was a systematic review. Eight of the 239 articles identified by electronic search strategies met the inclusion criteria. Risk factors and their respective effect estimates were reported using descriptive analysis and the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines. Modifiable risk factors included smoking, obesity, occupational factors and health status. Non-modifiable factors included age, gender and social class. Incidence rates varied among the included studies, in part reflecting the variability in the operationalized definition of sciatica but ranged from sciatica are modifiable, suggesting the potential benefits of primary prevention. In addition, those risk factors are also associated with unhealthy lifestyles, which may function concomitantly toward the development of sciatica. Sciatica as a diagnosis is inconsistently defined among studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dankar Fida

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

  17. Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amer, Tahani R.

    2011-01-01

    NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

  18. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  19. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  20. Industrial risk factors for colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashner, B.A.; Epstein, S.S.

    1990-01-01

    Colorectal cancer is the second most common malignancy in the United States, and its incidence rates have sharply increased recently, especially in males. Industrial exposures, both occupational and environmental, are important colorectal cancer risk factors that are generally unrecognized by clinicians. Migration studies have documented that colorectal cancer is strongly associated with environmental risk factors. The causal role of occupational exposures is evidenced by a substantial literature associating specific work practices with increased colorectal cancer risks. Industrially related environmental exposures, including polluted drinking water and ionizing radiation, have also been associated with excess risks. Currently, there is a tendency to attribute colorectal cancer, largely or exclusively, to dietary and other lifestyle factors, thus neglecting these industrially related effects. Concerted efforts are needed to recognize the causal role of industrial risk factors and to encourage government and industry to reduce carcinogenic exposures. Furthermore, cost-effective screening programs for high-risk population groups are critically needed to further reduce deaths from colorectal cancer. 143 references

  1. An Estimation of Risk Impact of Anticipated Transients without Scram for a KSNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok Jung; Yang Joon Eon

    2006-07-15

    Anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) event is an accident sequence with large risk impact, while it is a beyond design basis accident (BDBA). We have estimated a risk due to an ATWS accident sequence for the KSNP in consideration of the recent accident analysis results. The SECY-83-293's model for the CE type plants has been used in a risk estimation of ATWS. A risk estimation due to an ATWS for the KSNP has been performed in consideration of the recent ATWS accident analysis results and plant information. We reviewed influence factors in the SECY-83-293's model, these factors have been re-estimated by using current information and PSA results for a KSNP. A risk due to an ATWS has been estimated as 3.6E-6/yr of CDF by using domestic aspect and recent KSNP information. A sensitivity study for the UET variation has been performed. As the results of the sensitivity analysis, the overall risk spectrum by the UET variation is bounded between 7.80E-7/yr to 8.00E-6/yr of CDF. As the result of the current study, the risk due to an ATWS accident sequence has been identified as a considerable impact on the entire risk of a KSNP, so the risk estimation of that plant should be upgraded by considering the recent information like the ATWS accident analysis results. Finally, we expect that this study can become a basis for the entire risk estimation of the referred plant.

  2. Schizophrenia--A High-Risk Factor for Suicides: Clues to Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Constance B.; Gottesman, Irving I.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that suicide is chief cause of premature death among schizophrenic persons, with lifetime incidence of suicide for patients with schizophrenia at 10-13% compared to general population estimate of 1%. Discusses salient risk factors for suicide in schizophrenics and types of especially vulnerable patients identified by research. Notes that…

  3. Positive semidefinite integrated covariance estimation, factorizations and asynchronicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudt, Kris; Laurent, Sébastien; Lunde, Asger

    2017-01-01

    An estimator of the ex-post covariation of log-prices under asynchronicity and microstructure noise is proposed. It uses the Cholesky factorization of the covariance matrix in order to exploit the heterogeneity in trading intensities to estimate the different parameters sequentially with as many...

  4. Positive Semidefinite Integrated Covariance Estimation, Factorizations and Asynchronicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudt, Kris; Laurent, Sébastien; Lunde, Asger

    An estimator of the ex-post covariation of log-prices under asynchronicity and microstructure noise is proposed. It uses the Cholesky factorization on the correlation matrix in order to exploit the heterogeneity in trading intensity to estimate the different parameters sequentially with as many...

  5. Association of Type D personality with unhealthy lifestyle, and estimated risk of coronary events in the general Icelandic population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Svansdóttir, E.; Denollet, J.; Thorsson, B.; Gudnason, T.; Halldorsdottir, S.; Gudnason, V.; van den Broek, K.C.; Karlsson, D.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Type D personality is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality risk in cardiovascular disease patients, but the mechanisms explaining this risk are unclear. We examined whether Type D was associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors, estimated risk of developing

  6. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  7. Psychosocial risk factors and heart failure hospitalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Andersen, Ingelise; Prescott, Eva

    2011-01-01

    Prospective studies on the role of psychosocial factors in heart failure development are virtually nonexistent. The authors aimed to address the effect of psychosocial factors on the risk of heart failure hospitalization in men and women free of cardiovascular disease. In 1991-1993, the 8......-fourth of the population reported some degree of vital exhaustion. The vital exhaustion score was associated with a higher risk of heart failure in a dose-response manner (P risk of heart failure in both men (hazard ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence...... in the population, even a modestly higher risk of heart failure associated with vital exhaustion may be of importance in the planning of future preventive strategies for heart failure....

  8. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  9. Vitamin D, cardiovascular disease and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, Tea; Thuesen, Betina H.; Linneberg, Allan

    2017-01-01

    of vitamin D effects from a cardiovascular health perspective. It focuses on vitamin D in relation to cardiovascular disease, i.e. ischemic heart disease, and stroke; the traditional cardiovascular risk factors hypertension, abnormal blood lipids, obesity; and the emerging risk factors hyperparathyroidism......, microalbuminuria, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Meta-analyses of observational studies have largely found vitamin D levels to be inversely associated with cardiovascular risk and disease. However, Mendelian randomization studies and randomized, controlled trials...... (RCTs) have not been able to consistently replicate the observational findings. Several RCTs are ongoing, and the results from these are needed to clarify whether vitamin D deficiency is a causal and reversible factor to prevent cardiovascular disease....

  10. Preoperative modifiable risk factors in colorectal surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Rooijen, Stefanus; Carli, Francesco; Dalton, Susanne O

    2017-01-01

    in higher mortality rates and greater hospital costs. The number and severity of complications is closely related to patients' preoperative performance status. The aim of this study was to identify the most important preoperative modifiable risk factors that could be part of a multimodal prehabilitation...... program. METHODS: Prospectively collected data of a consecutive series of Dutch CRC patients undergoing colorectal surgery were analyzed. Modifiable risk factors were correlated to the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and compared within two groups: none or mild complications (CCI ... complications (CCI ≥20). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to explore the combined effect of individual risk factors. RESULTS: In this 139 patient cohort, smoking, malnutrition, alcohol consumption, neoadjuvant therapy, higher age, and male sex, were seen more frequently in the severe...

  11. Cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Peter; Thyssen, Jacob P; Zachariae, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Background Epidemiological data have established an association between cardiovascular disease and psoriasis. Only one general population study has so far compared prevalences of cardiovascular risk factors among subjects with psoriasis and control subjects. We aimed to determine the prevalence...... of cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with and without psoriasis in the general population. Methods During 2006-2008, a cross-sectional study was performed in the general population in Copenhagen, Denmark. A total of 3471 subjects participated in a general health examination that included assessment of current...... between subjects with and without psoriasis with regard to traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Our results contrast with the hitherto-reported increased prevalence of metabolic syndrome in subjects with psoriasis in the general US population. However, our results agree with those of other...

  12. Early life risk factors for testicular cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piltoft, Johanne Spanggaard; Larsen, Signe Benzon; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg

    2017-01-01

    of this study is to utilize data from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register (CSHRR) to evaluate cryptorchidism, birth weight and birth order as risk factors for testicular cancer. METHODS: The study population consisted of 408 cases of testicular cancer identified by a government issued identification...... in crude analyses [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.60, 95% CI 2.79-4.65]. Birth weight was inversely associated with testicular cancer and no clear association with birth order was observed. The positive association between cryptorchidism and testicular cancer was only slightly attenuated controlling for birth......PURPOSE: One established risk factors for testicular cancer is cryptorchidism. However, it remains unclear whether cryptorchidism is a risk factor in itself or whether the two conditions share common causes in early life (estrogen hypothesis), such as birth weight and birth order. The objective...

  13. Cardiovascular disease risk factors: a childhood perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praveen, Pradeep A; Roy, Ambuj; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-03-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide including in developing countries like India. Indians are known to be predisposed to CVD, which occur almost a decade earlier in them. Though these diseases manifest in the middle age and beyond, it is now clear that the roots of CVD lie in childhood and adolescence. Many of the conventional risk factors of CVD such as high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, unhealthy diet and obesity have their beginnings in childhood and then track overtime. It is thus important to screen and identify these risk factors early and treat them to prevent onset of CVD. Similarly community based strategies to prevent onset of these risk factors is imperative to tackle this burgeoning public health crisis especially in countries like ours with limited resources.

  14. Sociobehavioural risk factors in dental caries - international perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2005-01-01

    Diseases probably have their roots in a complex chain of environmental and behavioural events which are shaped by broader socioeconomic determinants. Most studies of sociobehavioural risk factors in dental caries have been carried out in industrialized countries, but such reports from low......- and middle-income countries have been published in recent years. World Health Organization international collaborative studies and other international studies of social factors in dental caries using the same methodology provide empirical evidence of social inequality in oral health across countries...... and across oral health care systems. The paper highlights the challenges to dental public health practice, particularly the importance of risk assessment in estimating the potential for prevention. In future public health programmes, systematic risk factor assessment may therefore be instrumental...

  15. Lung cancer in never smokers: disease characteristics and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallis, Athanasios G; Syrigos, Konstantinos N

    2013-12-01

    It is estimated that approximately 25% of all lung cancer cases are observed in never-smokers and its incidence is expected to increase due to smoking prevention programs. Risk factors for the development of lung cancer described include second-hand smoking, radon exposure, occupational exposure to carcinogens and to cooking oil fumes and indoor coal burning. Other factors reported are infections (HPV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis), hormonal and diatery factors and diabetes mellitus. Having an affected relative also increases the risk for lung cancer while recent studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with increased risk for lung cancer development in never smokers. Distinct clinical, pathology and molecular characteristics are observed in lung cancer in never smokers; more frequently is observed in females and adenocarcinoma is the predominant histology while it has a different pattern of molecular alterations. The purpose of this review is to summarize our current knowledge of this disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  17. Persistent postsurgical pain: risk factors and prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehlet, Henrik; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Woolf, Clifford J.

    2006-01-01

    therapy for postoperative pain should be investigated, since the intensity of acute postoperative pain correlates with the risk of developing a persistent pain state. Finally, the role of genetic factors should be studied, since only a proportion of patients with intraoperative nerve damage develop...... chronic pain. Based on information about the molecular mechanisms that affect changes to the peripheral and central nervous system in neuropathic pain, several opportunities exist for multimodal pharmacological intervention. Here, we outline strategies for identification of patients at risk...

  18. Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

  19. Immediately modifiable risk factors attributable to colorectal cancer in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naing, Cho; Lai, Pei Kuan; Mak, Joon Wah

    2017-08-04

    This study aimed to estimate potential reductions in case incidence of colorectal cancer attributable to the modifiable risk factors such as alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity amongst the Malaysian population. Gender specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for colorectal cancer in Malaysia were estimated for the three selected risk factors (physical inactivity, overweight, and alcohol consumptions). Exposure prevalence were sourced from a large-scale national representative survey. Risk estimates of the relationship between the exposure of interest and colorectal cancer were obtained from published meta-analyses. The overall PAF was then estimated, using the 2013 national cancer incidence data from the Malaysian Cancer Registry. Overall, the mean incidence rate for colorectal cancer in Malaysia from 2008 to 2013 was 21.3 per 100,000 population, with the mean age of 61.6 years (±12.7) and the majority were men (56.6%). Amongst 369 colorectal cancer cases in 2013, 40 cases (20 men, 20 women), 10 cases (9 men, 1 woman) or 20 cases (16 men,4 women) would be prevented, if they had done physical exercises, could reduce their body weight to normal level or avoided alcohol consumption, assuming that these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. It was estimated that 66 (17.8%;66/369) colorectal cancer cases (42 men, 24 women) who had all these three risk factors for the last 10 years would have been prevented, if they could control these three risk factors through effective preventive measures. Findings suggest that approximately 18% of colorectal cancer cases in Malaysia would be prevented through appropriate preventive measures such as doing regular physical exercises, reducing their body weight to normal level and avoiding alcohol consumption, if these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. Scaling-up nationwide public health campaigns tailored to increase physical activity, controlling body weight within normal

  20. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Dehghani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective analysis was carried on in the winter of which 310 pregnant women participated in 11 health centers in Shahrekord. Of these 155 cases (patients and 155 controls (healthy that were matched for age Information required from the health records of pregnant women and complete Czech list of researcher whose validity was confirmed by experts were gathered. Information needed by pregnant women health records and complete list researcher was collected. Czech list contains a number of possible risk factors for illness and demographic characteristics of the study participants was Statistical analysis software spss version 16 by using chi square tests and logistic regression and t analysis was performed. Results: Among the variables vomiting (p = 0/00 a history of urinary tract infection in a previous pregnancy (P =.001, CI = 1.508-4.408, OR = 2.578 abortion own history (P =.014, CI = 1.165 -3.847, OR = 2.117, respectively, the most important risk factors for urinary tract infection in pregnant women were determined. Conclusion: Prevention and treatment of vomiting in pregnancy prevention of urinary tract infections during pregnancy. Prevention of abortion can play an important role in the prevention of urinary tract infection and its complications in pregnancy. The study also revealed a number of factors can have an impact on urinary tract infection in pregnancy that has not been enough attention and it is necessary that more attention be placed on health programs and

  1. Metabolite Signatures of Metabolic Risk Factors and their Longitudinal Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Subramanian, S.; Willinger, C.M.; Chen, G.; Juhasz, P.; Courchesne, P.; Chen, B.H.; Li, X.; Hwang, S.J.; Fox, C.S.; O'Donnell, C.J.; Muntendam, P.; Fuster, V.; Bobeldijk-Pastorova, I.; Sookoian, S.C.; Pirola, C.J.; Gordon, N.; Adourian, A.; Larson, M.G.; Levy, D.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Metabolic dysregulation underlies key metabolic risk factors—obesity, dyslipidemia, and dysglycemia. Objective: To uncover mechanistic links between metabolomic dysregulation and metabolic risk by testing metabolite associations with risk factors cross-sectionally and with risk factor

  2. Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Freire da Silva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A major cause of morbidity and mortality in the context of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS is the occurrence of thrombotic events. Besides the pathogenic roles of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL, other risk factors and medical conditions, which are conditions for traditional risk of an individual without the APS, can coexist in this patient, raising their risk of developing thrombosis. Therefore, the clinical and laboratory investigation of comorbidities known to increase cardiovascular risk in patients with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome is crucial for the adoption of a more complete and effective treatment. Experimental models and clinical studies show evidence of association between APS and premature formation of atherosclerotic plaques. Atherosclerosis has major traditional risk factors: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, dyslipidemia, smoking, and sedentary lifestyle that may be implicated in vascular involvement in patients with APS. The influence of nontraditional risk factors as hyperhomocysteinemia, increased lipoprotein a, and anti-oxLDL in the development of thromboembolic events in APS patients has been studied in scientific literature. Metabolic syndrome with all its components also has been recently studied in antiphospholipid syndrome and is associated with arterial events.

  3. Risk factors for post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikoma, Ryo; Sakane, Sayaka; Niwa, Kazutomo; Kanetaka, Sayaka; Kawano, Toshiro; Oridate, Nobuhiko

    2014-08-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the rate of post-tonsillectomy hemorrhage (PTH) in a single institution and to evaluate the clinical risk factors for PTH. We reviewed the records of 692 patients who underwent tonsillectomy (TE) at Yokohama Minami Kyosai Hospital in Japan. PTH grades were grouped into three categories according to the severity of the hemorrhagic episode: (I) minimal hemorrhage that stopped after noninvasive treatment, (II) hemorrhage requiring treatment with local anesthesia, and (III) hemorrhage requiring reoperation under general anesthesia in the operating room. Clinical risk factors such as sex, age (adults vs. children), TE indication, surgeon's skill level, operative time, ligature type, and duration of antibiotic administration for PTH were investigated. Among the 692 patients, 80 (11.6%) showed PTH, with primary and secondary hemorrhage accounting for 1.6% and 10.0%, respectively. A category III PTH was observed in 18 patients; thus, the overall risk of reoperation was 2.6%. The PTH episode most frequently occurred on postoperative days 5 and 6. The frequency of PTH was significantly higher in male patients and in adults (Pdefinition of PTH. Clinical risk factors for PTH were adult age and male gender. The surgeon's skill level was an additional risk factor for category III PTH. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Lung cancer incidence and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bairakova, A.

    1993-01-01

    The possibility of developing lung cancer (lc) as a consequence of inhaling hot particles from the Chernobyl accident is discussed. The risk from various factors is reviewed in order to assess the rate of contribution for any of them to carcinogenic process. The conclusions are based on data reported by National Centre of Oncology, Sofia (BG). A total of 2873 new cases have been recorded in 1990. The data for the period 1970-1990 show a crude increase for males and tend to stabilization for females. The similar pattern is obtained in other countries and geographic areas with steady rise of lc cases with about 0.5% per year. The contribution of particular risk factor and its interaction with other factors is assessed on the basis of large number of epidemiologic and experimental studies. The risk of cigarette smoking, as the principal cause for lc, is discussed in various aspects - age, duration, possible dropping the habit. The assessment of another risk factor - exposure to relatively high doses of natural radon daughter products - is more complicated. As an occupational hazard in uranium mines radon and its progeny reveals an increase in excess lc incidence. Regarding radon and its daughters as an environmental risk factor in dwellings, no clear positive relationship between exposure and lc incidence has been observed. In this case the assessment for population living in areas with higher concentration of radon products have to rely on data from uranium mines. Non radiation factors as asbestos, ethers, chromates, metallic iron, nickel, beryllium and arsenic, are also considered. The combined effect of all these factors, as well as of pathological cell processes, viruses, malfunctions of immune system, is mentioned as well. The possibility of interpreting the findings from epidemiological studies within the framework of theoretical multistage models of carcinogenic process is pointed out. (author)

  5. Risk factors for osteoarthritis of the hip

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Karmela

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Osteoarthritis of the hip is a degenerative disease of hip unknown origin, with pain, stiffness and diminished joint function. AIM: determine the influence of the load of the hip joint during professional activity and BMI as risk factors for the hip osteoarthritis. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We analysed 148 patients. Patients were divided into two groups ( I group with osteoarthritis of the hip, II group without osteoarthritis of the hip. In all, performed diagnostic procedure: anamnesis, physical examination (estimate of walking and hip joint movement, laboratory blood test and urine test radiological examination and taking data on the height and weight to calculated BMI. We assessed the data that is related to the load of the hip joint during professional activities (mostly sitting work and mostly standing job with carrying load. Statistical analysis was done using the software package SPSS 14.0, Microsoft Office Word 2003. RESULTS: In the first group, average age was 67.76 years, with females prevailing (67.6%. In this group the larger body mass was noted (81.82 ± 12.18, with statistically significant difference (T-test 2.923, p<0.01; the average BMI was higher the average BMI was higher (30.18 ± 4.6, with statistically significant difference (T-test 3.832, p<0.01. This group had more overweight patients (87.7%,with statistically significant difference (Fisher test, p<0.01. In I group 62,2% of patients were doing hard physical work (standing job with repeated carrying load and we found statistically significant difference between groups (Fisher test p<0,01. CONCLUSION: Patients with osteoarthritis of the hip had a higher body weight, higher BMI. Also we found the influence of hard physical labor at work, and they were performed mostly standing job with carrying load.

  6. Risk factors for acute renal failure: inherent and modifiable risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Martine; Kellum, John A; Gibney, R T Noel; Lieberthal, Wilfred; Tumlin, James; Mehta, Ravindra

    2005-12-01

    Our purpose is to discuss established risk factors in the development of acute renal failure and briefly overview clinical markers and preventive measures. Findings from the literature support the role of older age, diabetes, underlying renal insufficiency, and heart failure as predisposing factors for acute renal failure. Diabetics with baseline renal insufficiency represent the highest risk subgroup. An association between sepsis, hypovolemia, and acute renal failure is clear. Liver failure, rhabdomyolysis, and open-heart surgery (especially valve replacement) are clinical conditions potentially leading to acute renal failure. Increasing evidence shows that intraabdominal hypertension may contribute to the development of acute renal failure. Radiocontrast and antimicrobial agents are the most common causes of nephrotoxic acute renal failure. In terms of prevention, avoiding nephrotoxins when possible is certainly desirable; fluid therapy is an effective prevention measure in certain clinical circumstances. Supporting cardiac output, mean arterial pressure, and renal perfusion pressure are indicated to reduce the risk for acute renal failure. Nonionic, isoosmolar intravenous contrast should be used in high-risk patients. Although urine output and serum creatinine lack sensitivity and specificity in acute renal failure, they remain the most used parameters in clinical practice. There are identified risk factors of acute renal failure. Because acute renal failure is associated with a worsening outcome, particularly if occurring in critical illness and if severe enough to require renal replacement therapy, preventive measures should be part of appropriate management.

  7. Sociomedical risk factors for male infecundity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Epanchintseva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Subjects and methods. A total of 917 men from infertile couples with abnormal ejaculate indicators were examined. Their age was 34.1 ± 6.3 years; the infertility period was 4.6 ± 3.9 years. A retrospective analysis of their case histories, clinical examination, questioning to identify risk factors for infertility, and anthropometric measurements of weight and height were made. Weight was rated normal at a body mass index (BMI of ≤ 24.9 kg/m2 ; overweight at 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 , and obesity at ≥ 30 kg/m2 . When identifying infertility risk factors, the investigators kept in mind 24 risk factors at the moment of examination or in the patient histories, which were grouped into 3 clusters: 1 – environmental factors and occupational hazards; 2 – evidence of congenital and acquired abnormalities; 3 – social and quality-of-life factors; this cluster also includes history and examination evidence of tuberculosis, sexually transmitted diseases, and other social diseases, such as hepatitis B and C, or human immunodeficiency infection. Then the men who did not show an exacerbation of somatic diseases, genetic anomalies associated with reproductive disorders, or an exacerbation of social diseases at the moment of examination were selected from the total sample. These were divided into 2 groups: normal weight and obese patients. The frequency of the above mentioned infertility risk factors and additionally the proportion of persons engaged in intellectual or manual labor were calculated in each group.Results and discussion. In the total sample, the frequency of infertility risk factors including occupational hazards and environmental factors was < 20 %; the incidence of congenital and acquired abnormalities was 1–39 %. The highest frequency of risk factors was noted in cluster 3. Among them, alcohol consumption (75 % occupied the first place; next were the rate of sexually transmitted infections (59 %, emotional stress (44 %, and smoking (42

  8. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  9. Prevalence and Risk Factors of High Risk Human Papillomavirus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cervical cancer is the most common female cancer in northern Nigeria, yet the pattern of infection with human papillomavirus, the principal aetiologic agent is unknown. This was a preliminary study conducted in two referral hospitals in order to establish base-line data on the prevalence and risk factors for the infection in ...

  10. Changes in risk factors during adolescence: implications for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Deković, M.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Hoeve, M.; van Amelsfort, L.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined to what extent the significance of both static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism changes in the course of adolescence. For this purpose, file and interview data of 1,396 juveniles charged with a criminal offense were analyzed. This study showed that the impact of almost all

  11. Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

    2013-01-01

    Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

  12. Factoring estimates for a 1024-bit RSA modulus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Tromer, E.; Shamir, A.; Kortsmit, W.J.P.M.; Dodson, B.; Hughes, J.; Leyland, P.; Laih, Chi Sung

    2003-01-01

    We estimate the yield of the number field sieve factoring algorithm when applied to the 1024-bit composite integer RSA-1024 and the parameters as proposed in the draft version [17] of the TWIRL hardware factoring device [18]. We present the details behind the resulting improved parameter choices

  13. Risk factors for goiter and thyroid nodules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, N.; Laurberg, P.; Perrild, H.

    2002-01-01

    is probably dependent on iodine status, because it seems that the zenith of goiter prevalence appears earlier in life the more severe iodine deficiency the population is exposed to. The association with individual risk factors has been investigated in some studies, especially the association with tobacco......The occurrence of thyroid diseases is determined by interplay between genetic and environmental factors. The major environmental factor that determines goiter prevalence is iodine status, but other environmental factors influencing entire populations have been identified such as goitrogens in food...... and drinking water. Less focus has been on individual environmental factors and the interplay between factors. The goiter prevalence is higher in certain groups in the population. The variation in goiter prevalence between the genders is well known with a higher occurrence among women. The association with age...

  14. Psychosocial risk factors and personality disorders in outpatient cardiology setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Suárez-Bagnasco

    2015-01-01

    Psychological risk factors and personality disorders comorbidities are more frequent than psychological risk factors only or personality disorders only in outpatient cardiology setting without cardiovascular diseases.

  15. Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

  16. Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, G.W.

    1979-01-01

    The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

  17. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  18. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  19. Exploring Risk Factors for Follicular Lymphoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander J. Ambinder

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Follicular lymphoma (FL is an indolent malignancy of germinal center B cells with varied incidence across racial groups and geographic regions. Improvements in the classification of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes provide an opportunity to explore associations between environmental exposures and FL incidence. Our paper found that aspects of Western lifestyle including sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and diets high in meat and milk are associated with an increased risk of FL. Diets rich in fruits and vegetables, polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamin D, and certain antioxidants are inversely associated with FL risk. A medical history of Sjogren's syndrome, influenza vaccination, and heart disease may be associated with FL incidence. Associations between FL and exposure to pesticides, industrial solvents, hair dyes, and alcohol/tobacco were inconsistent. Genetic risk factors include variants at the 6p21.32 region of the MHC II locus, polymorphisms of the DNA repair gene XRCC3, and UV exposure in individuals with certain polymorphisms of the vitamin D receptor. Increasing our understanding of risk factors for FL must involve integrating epidemiological studies of genetics and exposures to allow for the examination of risk factors and interactions between genes and environment.

  20. HIGH DIMENSIONAL COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Mincheva, Martina

    2011-01-01

    The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By assuming sparse error covariance matrix, we allow the presence of the cross-sectional correlation even after taking out common factors, and it enables us to combine the merits of both methods. We estimate the sparse covariance using the adaptive thresholding technique as in Cai and Liu (2011), taking into account the fact that direct observations of the idiosyncratic components are unavailable. The impact of high dimensionality on the covariance matrix estimation based on the factor structure is then studied.

  1. Risk Factors for Smoking Behaviors among Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Sung Suk; Joung, Kyoung Hwa

    2014-01-01

    Many students in Korea begin to use tobacco and develop a regular smoking habit before they reach adulthood. Yet, little is known about various signs contributing to the transition of the student smoking behaviors. This study used a national sample to explore and compare risk factors for smoking behaviors. Three types of smoking behaviors were…

  2. Risk factors for meningitis after transsphenoidal surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aken, M. O.; de Marie, S.; van der Lely, A. J.; Singh, R.; van den Berge, J. H.; Poublon, R. M.; Fokkens, W. J.; Lamberts, S. W.; de Herder, W. W.

    1997-01-01

    To evaluate possible risk factors for meningitis, we retrospectively reviewed 228 transsphenoidal operations (in which a standard regimen of amoxicillin prophylaxis was used) for sellar pathology. The incidence of meningitis was 3.1% (seven of 228 cases). Cultures of preoperative specimens from the

  3. Risk factors in oil and gas lending

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.; Kipp, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that with the increasing internationalization of the petroleum industry, lenders to the industry must understand and overcome several new credit risk factors. As a result, new financial products are now available to reserve-based borrowers. Traditional project financing now also may include futures hedging, swaps, and collar elements

  4. Risk factors associated with oesophageal malignancy among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors associated with oesophageal malignancy among Ethiopian patients: a case control study. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about how to print, save, ...

  5. Risk factors for feline diabetes mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slingerland, L.I.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304830917

    2008-01-01

    The chapters of Part I of the thesis describe the development of techniques that can be used in the assessment of risk factors for the development of diabetes mellitus (DM) in cats. The hyperglycemic glucose clamp (HGC) was developed for use in conscious cats, equipped with arterial catheters for

  6. Risk Factors for Depression in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, Angela R.; Andrews, Jac J. W.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify salient risk factors for depression in early adolescence from a group of common predictors. The following nine predictors were examined: (1) perceived quality of peer relationships, (2) perceived parental nurturance, (3) perceived parental rejection, (4) self-esteem, (5) body image, (6) pubertal status,…

  7. [Risk factors found in suicide attempters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa-Manzano, Alberto Iram; Robles-Romero, Miguel Angel; Gutiérrez-Román, Elsa Armida; Martínez-Arriaga, María Guadalupe; Valadez-Toscano, Francisco Javier; Cabrera-Pivaral, Carlos E

    2009-01-01

    A better understanding of risk factors for suicide in general population is crucial for the design of suicide prevention programs. Our objective was to identify personal and family risk factors in suicide attempters. Case-control design. We searched in patients with an acute intoxication, those subjects with and intoxication attributable to suicide attempt. These patients were matched with controls by gender and the date of intoxication. We use a structured questionnaire to identify personal characteristics, family features and network support. Odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence interval were obtained. 25 cases and 25 controls were evaluated. The risk factors associated with suicide attempt adjusted by age, were being a student and smoking habits. Family violence background showed OR = 3.8 (IC 95 % = 1.1-13), family disintegration a OR = 8.5 (IC 95 % = 2.1-35), critical events background OR = 8.8 (IC 95 % = 2.1-36), poor self-esteem OR = 8.2 (IC 95 % 2-35), depression OR = 22 (IC 95 % = 3-190), anxiety OR = 9 (IC 95 % = 2-47), family dysfunction OR = 25 (IC 95 % = 4-151). The principal risk factor for suicide attempt was family dysfunction and psychological traits.

  8. [Hepatitis caused by virus C. Risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garassini, M E; Pulgar, Y; Alvarado, M; Garassini, M A

    1995-01-01

    To establish the risk factors to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we studied 120 patients divided in 2 groups: A first group of 40 patients with HCV infection, 24 (60%) with past medical history of blood transfusion, 14 (35%) of them also had hemodialysis and 3 Kidney transplant. 10 patients (25%) had mayor surgery without transfusion, 3 had frequent visits to the dentist and 3 month baby whose mother was HCV positive. In 4 patients we found no risk factors. A second group of 80 patients who visit our clinic for the first time, 2 were found positive for HCV (1.6%). 13 of them had blood transfusion, one was HCV+ (OR: 5.5, P = 0.73). 41 had history of mayor surgery, one HCV+ (OR: 0.95, P = 1.000). The risk factors related to HCV infection in our population were blood transfusion, hemodialysis and mayor surgery. The use of EV drugs, tatoos, sexual behavior, interfamiliar or vertical transmission were not risk factor in our population.

  9. Risk Factors for Domestic Violence in Curacao

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wijk, N. Ph. L.; de Bruijn, J. G. M.

    2012-01-01

    One out of three people (25% of men, 38% of women) in Curacao have experienced some form of domestic violence at some point in their adult lives. The most significant risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao are the female gender, a young age, low education, and experiencing domestic violence victimization in childhood. Divorce, single…

  10. Nutritional risk factors for postmenopausal osteoporosis | Berriche ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Osteoporosis is a bone disease that combines both a decrease in bone density and its internal architecture changes. Nutrition is one of the major determinants of osteoporosis. Aim: The purpose of our study was to identify nutritional risk factors of osteoporosis of two groups of osteoporotic women and ...

  11. Risk factors for falls of older citizens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boelens, C.; Hekman, E. E. G.; Verkerke, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fall prevention is a major issue in the ageing society. This study provides an overview of all risk factors for falls of older citizens. METHOD: A literature search was conducted to retrieve studies of the past 25 years. All participants from the studies lived in the community or

  12. Risk Factors and Prodromal Eating Pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Ng, Janet; Shaw, Heather

    2010-01-01

    Prospective studies have identified factors that increase risk for eating pathology onset, including perceived pressure for thinness, thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dietary restraint, and negative affect. Research also suggests that body dissatisfaction and dietary restraint may constitute prodromal stages of the development of…

  13. Risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijk, N.Ph.L.; de Bruijn, J.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    One out of three people (25% of men, 38% of women) in Curacao have experienced some form of domestic violence at some point in their adult lives. The most significant risk factors for domestic violence in Curacao are the female gender, a young age, low education, and experiencing domestic violence

  14. Psychosocial risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuvel, S. van den

    2014-01-01

    It has been known for some time that risk factors in the workplace can have a negative effect on health. Ramazzini was one of the first scientists to identify occupational health hazards. He wrote about diseases of the musculoskeletal system caused by sudden and irregular movements and the adoption

  15. Self-management of vascular risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sol-de Rijk, B.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary The aim of this thesis was to provide insight into the potential of a self-management approach in treatment of vascular risk factors and to develop a self-management intervention. Furthermore to examine if this intervention, based on self-efficacy promoting theory, is effective in reducing

  16. Depression: risk factor for cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuehl, L.K.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Otte, C.

    2012-01-01

    Major depression is an independent risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. In patients with existing cardiovascular disease, major depression has a large impact on the quality of life and is associated with a poor course and prognosis. Potential mechanisms responsible for this

  17. Lifestyle factors and risk of cardiovascular diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoevenaar-Blom, M.P.

    2013-01-01

    Background

    Evidence is accumulating that lifestyle factors influence the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases (CVD). A healthy diet, being physically active, moderate alcohol consumption and not smoking are associated with a lower CVD risk. In

  18. Atherogenic Risk Factors and Hearing Thresholds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Thomas Winther; Ramlau-Hansen, Cecilia Høst; Stokholm, Zara Ann

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of atherogenic risk factors on hearing thresholds. In a cross-sectional study we analyzed data from a Danish survey in 2009-2010 on physical and psychological working conditions. The study included 576 white- and blue-collar workers from c...

  19. Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grahn, D.

    1990-01-01

    The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

  20. [Risk factors for post partum depression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dois, Angelina; Uribe, Claudia; Villarroel, Luis; Contreras, Aixa

    2012-06-01

    Postpartum depression (PPD) is a public health problem with high prevalence in Chile. Many factors are associated with PPD. To analyze the factors associated with the incidence of depressive symptoms (SD) in women with low obstetric risk. Cross-sectional analytical study on a sample of 105 postpartum women with low obstetric risk assessed by the Edinburgh Depression Scale at the eighth week postpartum. A 37% prevalence of depressive symptoms was found. Univariate analysis showed that the perception of family functioning, overcrowding and number of siblings, were significantly associated with postpartum depressive symptoms. A multiple regression model only accepted family functioning as a predictor of depression. Perception of family functioning was the only variable that explained in part the presence of depressive symptoms in women with low obstetric risk.

  1. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  2. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  3. Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Aims: Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. Materials and Methods: The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. Statistical analysis used: The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as ‘outcome’ variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. Results: The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 – 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 – 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Conclusions: Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks PMID:27390474

  4. Chronic disease risk factors among hotel workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawde, Nilesh Chandrakant; Kurlikar, Prashika R

    2016-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases have emerged as a global health issue. Role of occupation in pathogenesis of non-communicable diseases has not been explored much especially in the hospitality industry. Objectives of this study include finding risk factor prevalence among hotel workers and studying relationship between occupational group and chronic disease risk factors chiefly high body mass index. A cross-sectional study was conducted among non-managerial employees from classified hotels in India. The study participants self-administered pre-designed pilot-tested questionnaires. The risk factor prevalence rates were expressed as percentages. Chi-square test was used for bi-variate analysis. Overweight was chosen as 'outcome' variable of interest and binary multi-logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants. The prevalence rates of tobacco use, alcohol use, inadequate physical activity and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 32%, 49%, 24% and 92% respectively among hotel employees. Tobacco use was significantly common among those in food preparation and service, alcohol use among those in food service and security and leisure time physical activity among front office workers. More than two-fifths (42.7%) were overweight. Among the hotel workers, those employed in food preparation and security had higher odds of 1.650 (CI: 1.025 - 2.655) and 3.245 (CI: 1.296 - 8.129) respectively of being overweight. Prevalence of chronic disease risk factors is high among hotel workers. Risk of overweight is significantly high in food preparation and security departments and workplace interventions are necessary to address these risks.

  5. [Injuries in France: trends and risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, J-B; Thélot, B; Beck, F

    2013-06-01

    Whatever the type of injury considered, prevention requires an improvement in health services' awareness of risk factors. The Health Barometer is a general population survey conducted in France since 1992 to contribute to surveillance in this field. The survey's statistical power and the numerous health topics included in the questionnaire provide accurate information for healthcare professionals and decision-makers. The Health Barometer 2010 was a nationwide telephone survey of 9110 persons representative of the 15-85-year-old population. One part of the questionnaire detailed injuries which had occurred during the past year. The numerous variables recorded enabled application of logistic regression models to explore risk factors related to different types of injury by age group. The findings were compared with the Health Barometer 2005 data to search for temporal trends of injury prevalence. The data analysis showed that 10.3% of the 15-85-year-olds reported an injury during the past year. This rate was higher than recorded in 2005; the increase was mainly due to domestic accidents and injuries occurring during recreational activities. Both type of injury and risk factors exhibited age-related variability. Domestic accidents and injuries occurring during recreational activities predominated in the older population and were associated with physical or mental health problems (chronic disease, diability, sleep disorders). For younger people, injuries were related to cannabis use, drunkedness, and insufficient sleep. Risk factors were also depended on type of injury: occupational accident-related injuries were linked with social disadvantage (manual worker population) whereas sports injuries were more common in the socially advantaged population. This survey confirms established knowledge and highlights, at different stages of life, new risk factors that contribute to injuries in France. These findings should be helpful for the development of adapted injury

  6. Behavior Risk Factors Among Russian Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anischenko, Aleksander; Arhangelskaya, Anna; Klenov, Michael; Burdukova, Ekaterina; Ogarev, Valrii; Ignatov, Nikolay; Osadchenko, Irina; Gurevich, Konstantin

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To analyze the prevalence of risk factors among Russian students. Methods In this study, 834 students were included from five Federal universities which were localized in four Federal regions of Russian Federation. Future doctors, school teachers, and wellness trainers were included in this study. Students were specifically asked about smoking, physical activity International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and food preference. Waist, hip, weight, and height were measured. Results The region of study and ethnic group were not influenced with respect to age and body mass index ( p > .1), while all other factors had a significant influence ( p students in comparison with those in future teachers and wellness instructors ( p obesity (due to levels of body mass index and waist-hip ratio) were found in medical students. Perspective Special programs to prevent the most common behavior risk factors in future medical doctors have to be designed.

  7. Modifiable Lifestyle Risk Factors and Incident Diabetes in African Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Joshua J; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B; Talegawkar, Sameera A; Effoe, Valery S; Okhomina, Victoria; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Hsueh, Willa A; Golden, Sherita H

    2017-11-01

    The associations of modifiable lifestyle risk factors with incident diabetes are not well investigated in African Americans (AAs). This study investigated the association of modifiable lifestyle risk factors (exercise, diet, smoking, TV watching, and sleep-disordered breathing burden) with incident diabetes among AAs. Modifiable lifestyle risk factors were characterized among 3,252 AAs in the Jackson Heart Study who were free of diabetes at baseline (2000-2004) using baseline questionnaires and combined into risk factor categories: poor (0-3 points), average (4-7 points), and optimal (8-11 points). Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, physician diagnosis, use of diabetes drugs, or glycosylated hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%) were estimated using Poisson regression modeling adjusting for age, sex, education, occupation, systolic blood pressure, and BMI. Outcomes were collected 2005-2012 and data analyzed in 2016. Over 7.6 years, there were 560 incident diabetes cases (mean age=53.3 years, 64% female). An average or optimal compared to poor risk factor categorization was associated with a 21% (IRR=0.79, 95% CI=0.62, 0.99) and 31% (IRR=0.69, 95% CI=0.48, 1.01) lower risk of diabetes. Among participants with BMI <30, IRRs for average or optimal compared to poor categorization were 0.60 (95% CI=0.40, 0.91) and 0.53 (95% CI=0.29, 0.97) versus 0.90 (95% CI=0.67, 1.21) and 0.83 (95% CI=0.51, 1.34) among participants with BMI ≥30. A combination of modifiable lifestyle factors are associated with a lower risk of diabetes among AAs, particularly among those without obesity. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Crash risk factors for interstate large trucks in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Eric R; Carter, Daniel L; Smith, Sarah; McCartt, Anne T

    2017-09-01

    Provide an updated examination of risk factors for large truck involvements in crashes resulting in injury or death. A matched case-control study was conducted in North Carolina of large trucks operated by interstate carriers. Cases were defined as trucks involved in crashes resulting in fatal or non-fatal injury, and one control truck was matched on the basis of location, weekday, time of day, and truck type. The matched-pair odds ratio provided an estimate of the effect of various driver, vehicle, or carrier factors. Out-of-service (OOS) brake violations tripled the risk of crashing; any OOS vehicle defect increased crash risk by 362%. Higher historical crash rates (fatal, injury, or all crashes) of the carrier were associated with increased risk of crashing. Operating on a short-haul exemption increased crash risk by 383%. Antilock braking systems reduced crash risk by 65%. All of these results were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Other safety technologies also showed estimated benefits, although not statistically significant. With the exception of the finding that short-haul exemption is associated with increased crash risk, results largely bolster what is currently known about large truck crash risk and reinforce current enforcement practices. Results also suggest vehicle safety technologies can be important in lowering crash risk. This means that as safety technology continues to penetrate the fleet, whether from voluntary usage or government mandates, reductions in large truck crashes may be achieved. Practical application: Results imply that increased enforcement and use of crash avoidance technologies can improve the large truck crash problem. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-10-15

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.

  10. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2008-01-01

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks

  11. Risk factors associated with sensitization to hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uter, Wolfgang; Geier, Johannes; Schnuch, Axel; Gefeller, Olaf

    2013-08-01

    Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) is a synthetic fragrance chemical and an important contact allergen, at least in Europe. Despite this importance, little is known about risk factors associated with this allergen. To examine factors from the history and clinical presentation of patch tested patients associated with HICC sensitization. Contact allergy surveillance data of 95 637 patients collected by the Information Network of Departments of Dermatology (IVDK, www.ivkd.org) in 2002-2011 were analysed. Point and interval estimates of the relative risk were derived from multifactorial logistic regression modelling. The overall prevalence of HICC sensitization was 2.24%. The strongest risk factors were polysensitization and dermatitis of the axillae, followed by dermatitis at other sites. No consistent and significant time trend was observed in this analysis. As compared with the youngest patients, the odds of HICC sensitization increased approximately three-fold in the 52-67-year age group, and strongly declined with further increasing age. The risk pattern with regard to age and affected anatomical site differed from that observed with other fragrance screening allergens. Cosmetic exposure, as broadly defined here, was a stronger and more prevalent individual risk factor than occupational exposure. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louden, Emily; Marcotte, Michael; Mehlman, Charles; Lippert, William; Huang, Bin; Paulson, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI) has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation) were present in any combination. PMID:29596309

  13. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Paul P; Keane, Pearse A; O'Neill, Evelyn C; Altaie, Rasha W; Loane, Edward; Neelam, Kumari; Nolan, John M; Beatty, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  14. Risk Factors for Age-Related Maculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul P. Connell

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Age-related maculopathy (ARM is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  15. Risk factors for age-related maculopathy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Connell, Paul P

    2012-02-01

    Age-related maculopathy (ARM) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly. Although beneficial therapeutic strategies have recently begun to emerge, much remains unclear regarding the etiopathogenesis of this disorder. Epidemiologic studies have enhanced our understanding of ARM, but the data, often conflicting, has led to difficulties with drawing firm conclusions with respect to risk for this condition. As a consequence, we saw a need to assimilate the published findings with respect to risk factors for ARM, through a review of the literature appraising results from published cross-sectional studies, prospective cohort studies, case series, and case control studies investigating risk for this condition. Our review shows that, to date, and across a spectrum of epidemiologic study designs, only age, cigarette smoking, and family history of ARM have been consistently demonstrated to represent risk for this condition. In addition, genetic studies have recently implicated many genes in the pathogenesis of age-related maculopathy, including Complement Factor H, PLEKHA 1, and LOC387715\\/HTRA1, demonstrating that environmental and genetic factors are important for the development of ARM suggesting that gene-environment interaction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of this condition.

  16. Risk Factors for Brachial Plexus Birth Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Louden

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the course of decades, the incidence of brachial plexus birth injury (BPBI has increased despite advances in healthcare which would seem to assist in decreasing the rate. The aim of this study is to identify previously unknown risk factors for BPBI and the risk factors with potential to guide preventative measures. A case control study of 52 mothers who had delivered a child with a BPBI injury and 132 mothers who had delivered without BPBI injury was conducted. Univariate, multivariable and logistic regressions identified risk factors and their combinations. The odds of BPBI were 2.5 times higher when oxytocin was used and 3.7 times higher when tachysystole occurred. The odds of BPBI injury are increased when tachysystole and oxytocin occur during the mother’s labor. Logistic regression identified a higher risk for BPBI when more than three of the following variables (>30 lbs gained during the pregnancy, stage 2 labor >61.5 min, mother’s age >26.4 years, tachysystole, or fetal malpresentation were present in any combination.

  17. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks

  18. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  19. Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, Eva L.; Willems, Tineke P.; van der Laan, Maarten J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Zeebregts, Clark J.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. Methods: A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles

  20. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro

    1981-01-01

    The genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemia significant dose (LSD) and malignancy significant dose (MSD) from medical diagnostic X-ray examinations in Japan were estimated based on a 1979 nationwide survey of randomly sampled hospitals and clinics. The population risk estimates were carried out using the resultant values of GSD, LSD and MSD. In the risk estimates, the significant factors, namely, the relative child expectancy, the leukemia significant factor and the malignancy significant factor, for patients were assumed to be same as those of general population. The risk factors used were 185 x 10 -6 rad -1 for genetic risk of all generations, 20 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal leukemia and 165 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal malignant diseases, respectively. The resultant annual population doses per person were 15 mrad (0.15 mGy) for GSD, 107 mrad (1.07 mGy) for CMD, 86 mrad (0.86 mGy) for LSD and 43 mrad (0.43 mGy) for MSD, respectively. The present data other than the MSD were compared with the data in 1960, 1969 and 1974. For example, the GSD of 1979 was approximately same as that of 1974, although the annual number of examinations in 1979 increased by about 30 percent as compared with those of 1974. The population risks from X-ray diagnosis were estimated to be 260 persons per year for genetic risk of all generations, 192 person per year for fatal leukemic risk and 825 person per year for malignant risk, respectively, for the whole population in Japan, assuming that the X-ray diagnosis in 1979 will be performed continuously in the future. The average risks per one exposure for X-ray radiography were estimated using the weighted average of the significant factor and the organ or tissue dose with the number of radiographic exposures by age and by type of examination. The average risks per radiographic exposure were 176 x 10 -9 for genetic risk, 285 x 10 -9 for leukemic risk and 1.75 x 10 -6 for malignant risk respectively. (author)

  1. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  2. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  3. Multiple Illuminant Colour Estimation via Statistical Inference on Factor Graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutimbu, Lawrence; Robles-Kelly, Antonio

    2016-08-31

    This paper presents a method to recover a spatially varying illuminant colour estimate from scenes lit by multiple light sources. Starting with the image formation process, we formulate the illuminant recovery problem in a statistically datadriven setting. To do this, we use a factor graph defined across the scale space of the input image. In the graph, we utilise a set of illuminant prototypes computed using a data driven approach. As a result, our method delivers a pixelwise illuminant colour estimate being devoid of libraries or user input. The use of a factor graph also allows for the illuminant estimates to be recovered making use of a maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference process. Moreover, we compute the probability marginals by performing a Delaunay triangulation on our factor graph. We illustrate the utility of our method for pixelwise illuminant colour recovery on widely available datasets and compare against a number of alternatives. We also show sample colour correction results on real-world images.

  4. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Risk factors for interpersonal conflicts at work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Raeve, Lore; Jansen, Nicole Wh; van den Brandt, Piet A; Vasse, Rineke M; Kant, Ijmert

    2008-04-01

    The main goal of this study was to identify work-related risk factors for the onset of interpersonal conflicts at work. Longitudinal data from the Maastricht Cohort Study on "fatigue at work" (N=9241) were used. After the respondents who reported an interpersonal conflict at baseline were excluded, logistic regression analyses were used to determine the role of several work-related risk factors at baseline in the onset of a conflict with coworkers or supervisors after 1 year of follow-up. Higher psychological job demands, higher levels of role ambiguity, the presence of physical demands, higher musculoskeletal demands, a poorer physical work environment, shift work, overtime, and higher levels of job insecurity significantly predicted the onset of both a coworker conflict and a supervisor conflict. Higher levels of coworker and supervisor social support, more autonomy concerning the terms of employment, good overall job satisfaction, monetary gratification, and esteem reward significantly protected against the onset of both a coworker conflict and a supervisor conflict. Higher levels of decision latitude and more career opportunities also significantly protected against the onset of a supervisor conflict. Several factors in the work environment were related to the onset of interpersonal conflicts at work. Given the rather serious consequences of interpersonal conflicts at work with respect to health and well-being, the observed risk factors can serve as a starting point for effective prevention and intervention strategies in the workplace.

  6. Breast cancer epidemiology and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeders, M. J. M.; Verbeek, A. L. M.

    1997-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women in the Western society. Over the past decades it has become apparent that breast cancer incidence rates are increasing steadily, whereas the mortality rates for breast cancer have remained relatively constant. Information through the media on this rising number of cases has increased breast health awareness but has also introduced anxiety in the female population. This combination of factors has made the need for prevention of breast cancer an urgent matter. Breast cancer does not seem to be a single disease entity. A specific etiologic factor may therefore have more influence on one form may therefore have more influence on one form of breast cancer than another. So far though, as shown in their summary of current knowledge on established and dubious risk factors, no risk factors have been identified that can explain a major part of the incidence. Efforts to identify other ways for primary prevention have also been discouraging, even though breast cancer is one of the most investigated tumours world-wide. Thus, at this point i time, the most important strategy to reduce breast cancer mortality is early detection through individual counselling and organised breast screening programs. The recent isolation of breast cancer susceptibility genes may introduce new ways to reduce the risk of breast cancer in a small subset of women

  7. Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

    2017-07-01

    Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  8. Recurrent Shoulder Dystocia: Risk Factors and Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurewitsch Allen, Edith D

    2016-12-01

    A prior history of delivery complicated by shoulder dystocia confers a 6-fold to nearly 30-fold increased risk of shoulder dystocia recurrence in a subsequent vaginal delivery, with most reported rates between 12% and 17%. Whereas prevention of shoulder dystocia in the general population is neither feasible nor cost-effective, directing intervention efforts at the particular subgroup of women with a prior history of shoulder dystocia has merit. Potentially modifiable risk factors and individualized management strategies that may reduce shoulder dystocia recurrence and its associated significant morbidities are reviewed.

  9. Risk factors for adolescents' attempted suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Mogens; Poulsen, Henrik Day; Nielsen, Anne

    was also found among adolescents who had psychiatric disorder or a physical handicap, those who had been sentenced, were addicted to drugs, or had unstable education and unemployment records. A common feature of these significant risk factors seemed to be stigmatisation or social exclusion......This paper has been submitted to a journal for consideration, so please do not quote without permission. Adolescents' first-time suicide attempt tends to be characterized by parental psychiatric disorder or suicidal behaviour, family violence, especially child abuse and neglect. An increased risk...

  10. Risk factors for antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milgrom Jeannette

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that the prevalence of antenatal and postnatal depression is high, with estimates around 13%, and the consequences serious, efforts have been made to identify risk factors to assist in prevention, identification and treatment. Most risk factors associated with postnatal depression have been well researched, whereas predictors of antenatal depression have been less researched. Risk factors associated with early parenting stress have not been widely researched, despite the strong link with depression. The aim of this study was to further elucidate which of some previously identified risk factors are most predictive of three outcome measures: antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress and to examine the relationship between them. Methods Primipara and multiparae women were recruited antenatally from two major hoitals as part of the beyondblue National Postnatal Depression Program 1. In this subsidiary study, 367 women completed an additional large battery of validated questionnaires to identify risk factors in the antenatal period at 26–32 weeks gestation. A subsample of these women (N = 161 also completed questionnaires at 10–12 weeks postnatally. Depression level was measured by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI. Results Regression analyses identified significant risk factors for the three outcome measures. (1. Significant predictors for antenatal depression: low self-esteem, antenatal anxiety, low social support, negative cognitive style, major life events, low income and history of abuse. (2. Significant predictors for postnatal depression: antenatal depression and a history of depression while also controlling for concurrent parenting stress, which was a significant variable. Antenatal depression was identified as a mediator between seven of the risk factors and postnatal depression. (3. Postnatal depression was the only significant predictor for parenting stress and also acted as a mediator

  11. Risk factors for antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, Bronwyn; Milgrom, Jeannette

    2008-04-16

    Given that the prevalence of antenatal and postnatal depression is high, with estimates around 13%, and the consequences serious, efforts have been made to identify risk factors to assist in prevention, identification and treatment. Most risk factors associated with postnatal depression have been well researched, whereas predictors of antenatal depression have been less researched. Risk factors associated with early parenting stress have not been widely researched, despite the strong link with depression. The aim of this study was to further elucidate which of some previously identified risk factors are most predictive of three outcome measures: antenatal depression, postnatal depression and parenting stress and to examine the relationship between them. Primipara and multiparae women were recruited antenatally from two major hoitals as part of the beyondblue National Postnatal Depression Program 1. In this subsidiary study, 367 women completed an additional large battery of validated questionnaires to identify risk factors in the antenatal period at 26-32 weeks gestation. A subsample of these women (N = 161) also completed questionnaires at 10-12 weeks postnatally. Depression level was measured by the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Regression analyses identified significant risk factors for the three outcome measures. (1). Significant predictors for antenatal depression: low self-esteem, antenatal anxiety, low social support, negative cognitive style, major life events, low income and history of abuse. (2). Significant predictors for postnatal depression: antenatal depression and a history of depression while also controlling for concurrent parenting stress, which was a significant variable. Antenatal depression was identified as a mediator between seven of the risk factors and postnatal depression. (3). Postnatal depression was the only significant predictor for parenting stress and also acted as a mediator for other risk factors. Risk factor profiles for

  12. Assessment of risk factors for noncommunicable disease risk factors among men of working age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yu. Vasilyev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: the investigation of some modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and poor explored as well of non-convectional diseases among men of working age.Subjects and methods. Seven thousand thirty five men in age of 18 to 60 years were examined. History data included age, gender, nationality,high blood pressure (BP episodes, antihypertensive drugs taking in case of arterial hypertension, smoking. Instrumental examination included BP measurement when seated after 5 minutes of the rest with mean BP calculation. Total cholesterol and creatinine in blood, clearance of creatinine calculation by Cockcroft–Gault formula, microalbuminuria were assayed; depression level was estimated by Beck score. With purpose to analyze the risk factors structure all examined subjects were divided into three groups according to SCORE scale.Results. Cholesterol level analysis revealed the increasing of parameter in 41.7 % of examined patients (n = 307. Microalbuminuria was revealed in 13.8 % (n = 102 of men, and 19.3 % of them (n = 80 had increased blood pressure. Some levels of depression were revealed in 42.5 % (n = 312, among them the arterial hypertension was observed in 62,5 % (n = 195. The group with low and moderate cardiovascular risk consisted of 594 persons (80.8 %. High cardiovascular risk was determined in 15.2 % men of working age (n = 112. Very high cardiovascular risk was revealed in 3.9 % (n = 29 of responders.Conclusion. Increasing of traditional risk factors rate is associated with increasing of additional risk factors. Received data are widening the perception about risk factors structure in population. Particularly the question about renal filtration function role, depressive syndrome, trophologic insufficiency is raised. Consideration of those in prophylaxis system consideration requires a specific education of general practitioners.

  13. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-01-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports

  14. Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne MacKay

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

  15. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  16. Risk factors for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingre, Caroline; Roos, Per M; Piehl, Fredrik; Kamel, Freya; Fang, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the most common motor neuron disease. It is typically fatal within 2–5 years of symptom onset. The incidence of ALS is largely uniform across most parts of the world, but an increasing ALS incidence during the last decades has been suggested. Although recent genetic studies have substantially improved our understanding of the causes of ALS, especially familial ALS, an important role of non-genetic factors in ALS is recognized and needs further study. In this review, we briefly discuss several major genetic contributors to ALS identified to date, followed by a more focused discussion on the most commonly examined non-genetic risk factors for ALS. We first review factors related to lifestyle choices, including smoking, intake of antioxidants, physical fitness, body mass index, and physical exercise, followed by factors related to occupational and environmental exposures, including electromagnetic fields, metals, pesticides, β-methylamino-L-alanine, and viral infection. Potential links between ALS and other medical conditions, including head trauma, metabolic diseases, cancer, and inflammatory diseases, are also discussed. Finally, we outline several future directions aiming to more efficiently examine the role of non-genetic risk factors in ALS. PMID:25709501

  17. Time trends in osteoporosis risk factor profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jakob Præst; Hyldstrup, Lars; Jensen, Jens-Erik Beck

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article was to identify prevalent osteoporosis risk factors, medications and comorbidities associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Furthermore to evaluate changes in risk factor profiles over 12 years. 6285 women consecutively referred to an osteoporosis specialist clinic were...... was established in a real-life setting. The prevalence of osteoporosis and proportion of patient's having comorbidity's associated with osteoporosis were increasing during the inclusion period (start 23.8 %, end 29.7 %). Increasing age (OR = 1.05), current smoking (OR = 1.18), estrogen deficiency (OR = 1.......7), hyperthyroidism (OR = 1.5), previous major osteoporotic fracture (OR = 1.7), former osteoporosis treatment (OR = 3.5), higher BMI (OR = 0.87), use of calcium supplementation (OR = 1.2), high exercise level (OR = 0.7), and use of thiazide diuretics (OR = 0.7) were identified as predictors of osteoporosis by DXA...

  18. Skin carcinoma and occupational risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linares Fernandez, Tomasa Maria; Correa Lozano, Zoila; Ibarra Fernandez de la Vega, Enrique Jose; Bonet Gorbea Mariano

    2014-01-01

    To identify the relative contribution of different occupational risk factors associated with the occurrence of skin cancer in the provinces of Havana City and Havana, Cuba , in 2006-2007. It was designed a case-control study of hospital base that included 112 cases of non-melanoma skin cancer and 448 witnesses, following the inclusion-exclusion criteria preset. We considered the totality of patients diagnosed with basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell histological study of skin biopsy or surgical excision. Risk factors with possible association with the disease were studied, such as sun exposure, ionizing and non-ionizing radiations and a wide range of chemical and biological substances potentially carcinogenic

  19. Nutritional risk factors for postmenopausal osteoporosis

    OpenAIRE

    Olfa Berriche; Amrouche Chiraz; Rym Ben Othman; Hamdi Souheila; Ines Lahmer; Chaabani Wafa; Imen Sebai; Haifa Sfar; Feten Mahjoub; Henda Jamoussi

    2017-01-01

    Background: Osteoporosis is a bone disease that combines both a decrease in bone density and its internal architecture changes. Nutrition is one of the major determinants of osteoporosis. Aim: The purpose of our study was to identify nutritional risk factors of osteoporosis of two groups of osteoporotic women and witnesses. Methods: We conducted a comparative cross-sectional study including 60 postmenopausal women and screening for osteoporosis by a bone densitometry, recruited the outp...

  20. Risk factors for postpartum urinary incontinence

    OpenAIRE

    Lígia da Silva Leroy; Adélia Lúcio; Maria Helena Baena de Moraes Lopes

    2016-01-01

    Abstract OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk factors for postpartum urinary incontinence (UI) and its characteristics. METHOD: This was a case-control study with 344 puerperal women (77 cases and 267 controls) with up to 90 days postpartum. In a single session, participants were given a questionnaire with sociodemographic and clinical data and two others that assessed urine leakage, leakage situations, and type of UI. RESULTS: Stress UI was present in 45.5% of the women, incidents of urine...

  1. Longitudinal Risk Factors for Cyberbullying in Adolescence

    OpenAIRE

    Sticca, Fabio; Ruggieri, Sabrina; Alsaker, Françoise; Perren, Sonja

    2013-01-01

    Cyberbullying has emerged as a new form of antisocial behaviour in the context of online communication over the last decade. The present study investigates potential longitudinal risk factors for cyberbullying. A total of 835 Swiss seventh graders participated in a short-term longitudinal study (two assessments 6 months apart). Students reported on the frequency of cyberbullying, traditional bullying, rule-breaking behaviour, cybervictimisation, traditional victimisation, and frequency of onl...

  2. Epidemiology and risk factors for drug allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thong, Bernard Y-H; Tan, Teck-Choon

    2011-05-01

    The aim of this review was to describe the current evidence-based knowledge of the epidemiology, prevalence, incidence, risk factors and genetic associations of drug allergy. Articles published between 1966 and 2010 were identified in MEDLINE using the key words adult, adverse drug reaction reporting systems, age factors, anaphylactoid, anaphylaxis, anaesthetics, antibiotics, child, drug allergy, drug eruptions, ethnic groups, hypersensitivity, neuromuscular depolarizing agents, neuromuscular nondepolarizing agents, sex factors, Stevens Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis. Additional studies were identified from article reference lists. Relevant, peer-reviewed original research articles, case series and reviews were considered for review. Current epidemiological studies on adverse drug reactions (ADRs) have used different definitions for ADR-related terminology, often do not differentiate immunologically and non-immunologically mediated drug hypersensitivity, study different study populations (different ethnicities, inpatients or outpatients, adults or children), utilize different methodologies (spontaneous vs. non-spontaneous reporting, cohort vs. case-control studies), different methods of assessing drug imputability and different methods of data analyses. Potentially life-threatening severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) are associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality. HLA associations for SCAR associated with allopurinol, carbamazepine and abacavir have been reported with the potential for clinical use in screening prior to prescription. Identification of risk factors for drug allergy and appropriate genetic screening of at-risk ethnic groups may improve the outcomes of drug-specific SCAR. Research and collaboration are necessary for the generation of clinically-relevant, translational pharmacoepidemiological and pharmacogenomic knowledge, and success of health outcomes research and policies on drug allergies. © 2011 The Authors

  3. Studying risk factors associated with Human Leptospirosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramachandra Kamath

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Leptospirosis is one of the most under diagnosed and underreported disease in both developed and developing countries including India. It is established that environmental conditions and occupational habit of the individuals put them at risk of acquiring disease, which varies from community to community. Various seroprevalence studies across the world have documented emerging situation of this neglected tropical disease, but limited have probed to identify the risk factors, especially in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify the environmental and occupational risk factors associated with the disease in Udupi District. Materials and Methods: This population-based case-control study was carried out in Udupi, a District in Southern India from April 2012 until August 2012. Udupi is considered to be endemic for Leptospirosis and reported 116 confirmed cases in the year 2011. Seventy of 116 laboratory confirmed cases and 140 sex matched neighborhood healthy controls participated in the study. A predesigned, semi-structured and validated questionnaire was used for data collection through house to house visit and observations were noted about environmental conditions. Univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis (back ward conditional logistic regression was performed by using STATA version 9.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA to identify potential risk factors. Results: Occupational factors such as outdoor activities (matched odds ratio [OR] of 3.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-13.0, presence of cut or wound at body parts during work (matched OR: 4.88, CI: 1.83-13.02 and environmental factors such as contact with rodents through using the food materials ate by rat (matched OR: 4.29, CI: 1.45-12.73 and contact with soil or water contaminated with urine of rat (matched OR: 4.58, CI: 1.43-14.67 were the risk factors identified to be associated with disease. Conclusion: Leptospirosis is still

  4. Risk factors for fractures in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacqmin-Gadda, H; Fourrier, A; Commenges, D; Dartigues, J F

    1998-07-01

    We report the results of a 5-year prospective cohort study of risk factors for fractures, including drinking fluoridated water, in a cohort of 3,216 men and women aged 65 years and older. We studied risk factors for hip fracture and fractures at other locations separately. We found a higher risk of hip fractures for subjects exposed to fluorine concentrations over 0.11 mg per liter but without a dose-effect relation (odds ratio (OR) = 3.25 for a concentration of 0.11-0.25 mg per liter; OR = 2.43 for > or = 0.25 mg per liter]. For higher thresholds (0.7 and 1 mg per liter), however, the OR was less than 1. We found no association between fluorine and non-hip fractures. Non-hip fractures were associated with polymedication rather than with specific drug use, whereas fracture was associated with polymedication and use of anxiolytic and antidepressive drugs. Subjects drinking spirits every day were more likely to have hip fractures. Tobacco consumption increased the risk for non-hip fractures.

  5. Maternal Risk Factors for Neonatal Necrotizing Enterocolitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    March, Melissa I.; Gupta, Munish; Modest, Anna M.; Wu, Lily; Hacker, Michele R.; Martin, Camilia R.; Rana, Sarosh

    2015-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to investigate the relationship between maternal hypertensive disease and other risk factors and the neonatal development of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Methods This was a retrospective case control study of infants with NEC from 2008 to 2012. The primary exposure of interest was maternal hypertensive disease, which has been hypothesized to put infants at risk for NEC. Other variables collected included demographics, pregnancy complications, medications, and neonatal hospital course. Data was abstracted from medical records. Results 28 cases of singleton neonates with NEC and 81 matched controls were identified and analyzed. There was no significant difference in the primary outcome. Fetuses with an antenatal diagnosis of growth restriction were more likely to develop NEC (p=0.008). Infants with NEC had lower median birth weight than infants without NEC (p=0.009). Infants with NEC had more late-onset sepsis (p=0.01) and mortality before discharge (p=0.001). Conclusions The factors identified by this case-control study that increased the risk of neonatal NEC included intrauterine growth restriction and lower neonatal birth weight. The primary exposure, hypertensive disease, did not show a significantly increased risk of neonatal NEC, however there was a nearly two-fold difference observed. Our study was underpowered to detect the observed difference. PMID:25162307

  6. Fall risk factors in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, P; Hildebrand, K

    2000-08-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by tremor, rigidity, bradykinesia, gait disturbance, and postural instability. Patients with PD suffer frequent falls, yet little research has been done to identify risks specific to PD patients. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with falls for PD patients through the collection of demographic, environmental, and medical information as well as fall diaries completed during a 3-month period. Patients with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, with and without falls, were included in the study provided they could stand and walk and had no other condition that could predispose them to falls. Of the 118 participants, 59% reported one or more falls. A total of 237 falls were reported. Duration and severity of PD symptoms, particularly freezing, involuntary movements, and walking and postural difficulties, were significantly associated with an increased risk of falls. Other factors associated with falls were postural hypotension and daily intake of alcohol. Forty percent of falls resulted in injury, but serious injury was rare. The findings have implications for reducing the risk of falls through patient education.

  7. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  8. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

  9. Risk factors for developing diabetic foot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Estela Willrich Boell

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the present study is to identify the risk factors for developing diabetic foot. A cross-sectional study, with a convenience sample, developed with 70 individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM, registered in three basic health units in the municipality of Florianópolis/SC, Brazil, in the period from November 2010 to May 2011. Biometric data was collected regarding their sociodemographic, health and illness conditions. An assessment of the feet was also carried out. The average participant age was 66.17 years and time with diagnosed disease was under ten years (61.42%. The following risk factors were identified: advanced age; time of DM diagnosis; few years of schooling; overweight/obesity; inadequate diet; physical inactivity; inadequate metabolic control; lack of proper and specific foot care; and arterial hypertension. We conclude that the majority of the population presented one or more risk factors that favor the appearance of foot-related complications. doi: 10.5216/ree.v16i2.20460.

  10. Risk Factor and Comorbidity of Migraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woro Riyadina

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Migraine is a chronic daily headache which interfere a quality of life. The purpose of this research is to obtain the prevalence, risk factors, and comorbidity of migraine. Methods: A cross sectional study involving 4771 subjects in 5 villages in the district of Central Bogor, Bogor City 2011–2012. Data collection was performed using WHO STEPS (interview, measurement, physical examination, and laboratory test. Results: In this study, the migraine prevalence was 22.43%, with significant risk factors were sex, age, and stress (p < 0.05. Comorbidity of migraine was coronary heart diseases (p < 0.05. There was no significant correlation between migraine with marital status, level of education, smoking, hypertension, obesity, total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, trigliseride level, and diabetes mellitus (p > 0.05. Conclusions: Risk factors which have significant association with migraine are sex, age, and stress, whereas coronary heart disease existed as a comorbidity with migraine.

  11. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  12. Corneal Graft Rejection: Incidence and Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Baradaran-Rafii

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available

    PURPOSE: To determine the incidence and risk factors of late corneal graft rejection after penetrating keratoplasty (PKP. METHODS: Records of all patients who had undergone PKP from 2002 to 2004 without immunosuppressive therapy other than systemic steroids and with at least one year of follow up were reviewed. The role of possible risk factors such as demographic factors, other host factors, donor factors, indications for PKP as well as type of rejection were evaluated. RESULTS: During the study period, 295 PKPs were performed on 286 patients (176 male, 110 female. Mean age at the time of keratoplasty was 38±20 (range, 40 days to 90 years and mean follow up period was 20±10 (range 12-43 months. Graft rejection occurred in 94 eyes (31.8% at an average of 7.3±6 months (range, 20 days to 39 months after PKP. The most common type of rejection was endothelial (20.7%. Corneal vascularization, regrafting, anterior synechiae, irritating sutures, active inflammation, additional anterior segment procedures, history of trauma, uncontrolled glaucoma, prior graft rejection, recurrence of herpetic infection and eccentric grafting increased the rate of rejection. Patient age, donor size and bilateral transplantation had no significant influence on graft rejection. CONCLUSION: Significant risk factors for corneal graft rejection include

  13. Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

    1975-01-01

    Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

  14. [Cardiovascular risk factors in users with severe mental disorder].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paños-Martínez, Montserrat; Patró-Moncunill, Ester; Santiago-Barragán, Ángel-María; Marti-Mestre, Marc; Torralbas-Ortega, Jordi; Escayola-Maranges, Anna; Granero-Lázaro, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    To identify the prevalence of the cardiovascular risk (RCV) in users with a Severe Mental Disorder (SMD) attended in mental health service in ParcTaulí (Sabadell - Barcelona). This is an observational, descriptive and transversal study of the factors of cardiovascular risk in 789 users with SMD. The instrument used was the scale of assessment of the Registre Gironí del Cor, which estimates the risk of cardiovascular disease. 26.6% of the sample has RCV (22.5% moderate, 3.8% high and 0.3% very high). The analysis of the modifiable risk factors shows that 16.5% of the patients are hypertensive, 55.2% are smokers, 19.77% have hyperglycaemia (8.2% of whom are diagnosed of diabetes mellitus), 40.2% have obesity, 36.2% overweight and 47.27% hypercholesterolemia. The study confirms that the prevalence of the RVC in SMD users is greater than the RCV in general population and it's associated to the presence of modifiable risk factors. Health education carried out by nurses is the best to prevent the RCV in SMD users. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Introduction of risk size in the determination of uncertainty factor UFL in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Jinling; Lu Yun; Velasquez, Natalia; Hu Hongying; Yu Ruozhen; Liu Zhengtao; Meng Wei

    2012-01-01

    The methodology for using uncertainty factors in health risk assessment has been developed for several decades. A default value is usually applied for the uncertainty factor UF L , which is used to extrapolate from LOAEL (lowest observed adverse effect level) to NAEL (no adverse effect level). Here, we have developed a new method that establishes a linear relationship between UF L and the additional risk level at LOAEL based on the dose–response information, which represents a very important factor that should be carefully considered. This linear formula makes it possible to select UF L properly in the additional risk range from 5.3% to 16.2%. Also the results remind us that the default value 10 may not be conservative enough when the additional risk level at LOAEL exceeds 16.2%. Furthermore, this novel method not only provides a flexible UF L instead of the traditional default value, but also can ensure a conservative estimation of the UF L with fewer errors, and avoid the benchmark response selection involved in the benchmark dose method. These advantages can improve the estimation of the extrapolation starting point in the risk assessment. (letter)

  16. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  17. Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haenninen, Otto; Brueske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles ( -1 ; particle number 1.1-3.1 x 10 9 d -1 ) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 x 10 -6 , but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

  18. The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

    2013-07-01

    We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

  19. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  20. Postmolar gestational trophoblastic neoplasia: beyond the traditional risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtiyari, Mahmood; Mirzamoradi, Masoumeh; Kimyaiee, Parichehr; Aghaie, Abbas; Mansournia, Mohammd Ali; Ashrafi-Vand, Sepideh; Sarfjoo, Fatemeh Sadat

    2015-09-01

    To investigate the slope of linear regression of postevacuation serum hCG as an independent risk factor for postmolar gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). Multicenter retrospective cohort study. Academic referral health care centers. All subjects with confirmed hydatidiform mole and at least four measurements of β-hCG titer. None. Type and magnitude of the relationship between the slope of linear regression of β-hCG as a new risk factor and GTN using Bayesian logistic regression with penalized log-likelihood estimation. Among the high-risk and low-risk molar pregnancy cases, 11 (18.6%) and 19 cases (13.3%) had GTN, respectively. No significant relationship was found between the components of a high-risk pregnancy and GTN. The β-hCG return slope was higher in the spontaneous cure group. However, the initial level of this hormone in the first measurement was higher in the GTN group compared with in the spontaneous recovery group. The average time for diagnosing GTN in the high-risk molar pregnancy group was 2 weeks less than that of the low-risk molar pregnancy group. In addition to slope of linear regression of β-hCG (odds ratio [OR], 12.74, confidence interval [CI], 5.42-29.2), abortion history (OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.27-5.04) and large uterine height for gestational age (OR, 1.26; CI, 1.04-1.54) had the maximum effects on GTN outcome, respectively. The slope of linear regression of β-hCG was introduced as an independent risk factor, which could be used for clinical decision making based on records of β-hCG titer and subsequent prevention program. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Effects of risk estimation tendency on risk perception at the Tohoku Disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Yuri; Tsuchida, Shoji; Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Shiotani, Takamasa

    2012-01-01

    The Tohoku Disaster showed the underlying risks of earthquake, tsunami, nuclear power plant accidents and debris removal. The ability to understand the risk and act appropriately has been widely discussed among the professionals as well within the community. In Oct 2011, an Online survey. Using the correspondence analysis approach, the data collected the free-answer question 'What do you remember most regarding news on the Tohoku Disaster' was analyzed. The relationship between the cognitive trade-off factors, zero-risk factors and elaboration tendency factors, and risk perception among the people following the Tohoku Disaster were discussed. (author)

  2. Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail

    2017-09-01

    The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.

  3. Prevalence and risk factors of dry eye disease in a British female cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vehof, Jelle; Kozareva, Diana; Hysi, Pirro G.; Hammond, Christopher J.

    2014-01-01

    Background/aims To estimate the prevalence and risk factors of dry eye disease (DED) in a female cohort in the UK. Methods Population-based cross-sectional association study of 3824 women from the TwinsUK cohort aged 20-87 years. A questionnaire was used to evaluate DED and several risk factors.

  4. Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Moons, Philip; De Geest, Sabina; Fridlund, Bengt; Heikkilä, Johanna; Jaarsma, Tiny; Lenzen, Mattie; Martensson, Jan; Norekvål, Tone M; Smith, Karen; Stewart, Simon; Strömberg, Anna; Thompson, David R

    2006-12-01

    Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (kappa(w)). Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (> or =5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of or =5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was or =5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (kappa(w)=0.27). Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

  5. Risk factors for fatigue among airline pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Drongelen, Alwin; Boot, Cécile R L; Hlobil, Hynek; Smid, Tjabe; van der Beek, Allard J

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study is to determine risk factors for fatigue among airline pilots, taking into account person-, work-, health-, sleep-, and lifestyle-related characteristics. The study population consisted of 502 pilots who participated in the MORE Energy study. Included risk factors were either measured through an online questionnaire or provided by the company. The outcome of this study, fatigue, was assessed using the Checklist Individual Strength (CIS), and was defined as scoring more than 76 points on this questionnaire. The association of the risk factors with fatigue was determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of the participating pilots, 29.5 % scored more than 76 points on the CIS and were classified as being fatigued. The fully adjusted regression model showed that person-, work-, health-, and lifestyle-related characteristics were associated with fatigue. Pilots who were aged 31 to 40 (OR 3.36, 95 % CI 1.32-8.53) or 41 to 50 (OR 4.19, 95 % CI 1.40-12.47), an evening type (OR 2.40, 95 % CI 1.38-4.16), scored higher on work-life balance disturbance (OR 1.22, 95 % CI 1.10-1.36), scored higher on need for recovery (OR 1.02, 95 % CI 1.01-1.04), scored lower on general health perception (OR 0.31, 95 % CI 0.20-0.47), were less physically active (OR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.66-0.89), and had a moderate alcohol consumption (OR 3.88, 95 % CI 1.21-12.43), were at higher risk for fatigue. Higher age, being an evening type, disturbance of the work-life balance, more need for recovery, a lower perceived health, less physical activity, and moderate alcohol consumption were shown to be risk factors for fatigue. Further longitudinal research is needed to elucidate the direction of the associations found and to evaluate the effects of possible countermeasures in airline pilots.

  6. The use of importance sampling in a trial assessment to obtain converged estimates of radiological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, K.; Lucas, R.

    1986-12-01

    In developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of radioactive wastes, the Department of the Environment has conducted a series of trial assessment exercises. In order to produce converged estimates of radiological risk using the SYVAC A/C simulation system an efficient sampling procedure is required. Previous work has demonstrated that importance sampling can substantially increase sampling efficiency. This study used importance sampling to produce converged estimates of risk for the first DoE trial assessment. Four major nuclide chains were analysed. In each case importance sampling produced converged risk estimates with between 10 and 170 times fewer runs of the SYVAC A/C model. This increase in sampling efficiency can reduce the total elapsed time required to obtain a converged estimate of risk from one nuclide chain by a factor of 20. The results of this study suggests that the use of importance sampling could reduce the elapsed time required to perform a risk assessment of a potential site by a factor of ten. (author)

  7. Maternal depression as a risk factor for family homelessness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Marah A; Corman, Hope; Noonan, Kelly; Reichman, Nancy E

    2014-09-01

    We estimated the effects of maternal depression during the postpartum year, which is often an unexpected event, on subsequent homelessness and risk of homelessness in a national sample of urban, mostly low-income mothers. We used logistic regression models to estimate associations between maternal depression during the postpartum year and both homelessness and risk of homelessness 2 to 3 years later, controlling for maternal and family history of depression, prenatal housing problems, and other covariates. Risk factors for homelessness included experiencing evictions or frequent moves and moving in with family or friends and not paying rent. We found robust associations between maternal depression during the postpartum year and subsequent homelessness and risk of homelessness, even among mothers who had no history of mental illness, whose own mothers did not have a history of depressive symptoms, and who had no previous housing problems. This study provides robust evidence that maternal mental illness places families with young children at risk for homelessness, contributes to the scant literature elucidating directional and causal links between mental illness and homelessness, and contributes to a stagnant but important literature on family homelessness.

  8. Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

    2017-02-01

    Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  10. on the determination of risk factors associated with the recovery of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    binary logistic regression models is used to identify some risk factors associated with the recovery process. Result ... Consider the stochastic process { Xn, n = 1,2, } with countable finite values. ... are unknown parameters to be estimated.

  11. Dental Students' Perceptions of Risk Factors for Musculoskeletal Disorders: Adapting the Job Factors Questionnaire for Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presoto, Cristina D; Wajngarten, Danielle; Domingos, Patrícia A S; Campos, Juliana A D B; Garcia, Patrícia P N S

    2018-01-01

    The aims of this study were to adapt the Job Factors Questionnaire to the field of dentistry, evaluate its psychometric properties, evaluate dental students' perceptions of work/study risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders, and determine the influence of gender and academic level on those perceptions. All 580 students enrolled in two Brazilian dental schools in 2015 were invited to participate in the study. A three-factor structure (Repetitiveness, Work Posture, and External Factors) was tested through confirmatory factor analysis. Convergent validity was estimated using the average variance extracted (AVE), discriminant validity was based on the correlational analysis of the factors, and reliability was assessed. A causal model was created using structural equation modeling to evaluate the influence of gender and academic level on students' perceptions. A total of 480 students completed the questionnaire for an 83% response rate. The responding students' average age was 21.6 years (SD=2.98), and 74.8% were women. Higher scores were observed on the Work Posture factor items. The refined model presented proper fit to the studied sample. Convergent validity was compromised only for External Factors (AVE=0.47), and discriminant validity was compromised for Work Posture and External Factors (r 2 =0.69). Reliability was adequate. Academic level did not have a significant impact on the factors, but the women students exhibited greater perception. Overall, the adaptation resulted in a useful instrument for assessing perceptions of risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders. Gender was found to significantly influence all three factors, with women showing greater perception of the risk factors.

  12. Perinatal risk factors and social withdrawal behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guedeney, Antoine; Marchand-Martin, Laetitia; Cote, Sylvana J; Larroque, Béatrice

    2012-04-01

    The objectives of the study were (1) to assess prevalence of social withdrawal behaviour in infants aged 12 months included in the French Perinatal Risk Factor Study Eden; (2) To study the correlation between relational withdrawal and several perinatal and parental factors assessed in the EDEN study. A longitudinal study using the ADBB scale was conducted within the Eden Cohort in the year 2008. 1,586 infants were included in the study. Fourteen percent of the children who had an ADBB assessment had a score at 5 and over on the ADBB, a scale designed to assess social withdrawal behaviour at age 0-24 months. Social withdrawal at 12 months was associated with low birth weight, low gestational age and with intra uterine growth retardation. Social withdrawal was independently associated with several maternal and paternal risk factors. The level of social withdrawal behaviour increased with a score of maternal difficulties. This study on a large longitudinally followed volunteer sample demonstrate a clear association of social withdrawal behaviour at age one with low birth weight and preterm birth, possibly mediated by parental vulnerabilities. Social withdrawal behaviour seems to be an important alarm signal to detect early on particularly in premature and small for date babies. © Springer-Verlag 2012

  13. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  14. [Risk factors for anorexia in children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei-Xiao; Lang, Jun-Feng; Zhang, Qin-Feng

    2016-11-01

    To investigate the risk factors for anorexia in children, and to reduce the prevalence of anorexia in children. A questionnaire survey and a case-control study were used to collect the general information of 150 children with anorexia (case group) and 150 normal children (control group). Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis were performed to identify the risk factors for anorexia in children. The results of the univariate analysis showed significant differences between the case and control groups in the age in months when supplementary food were added, feeding pattern, whether they liked meat, vegetables and salty food, whether they often took snacks and beverages, whether they liked to play while eating, and whether their parents asked them to eat food on time (Panorexia in children. Liking of meat (OR=0.093) and vegetables (OR=0.272) and eating on time required by parents (OR=0.079) were protective factors against anorexia in children. Timely addition of supplementary food, a proper diet, and development of children's proper eating and living habits can reduce the incidence of anorexia in children.

  15. Risk factors for asthma exacerbation in patients presenting to an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Asthma exacerbations are caused by a variety of risk factors. Reducing exposure to these risk factors improves the control of asthma and reduces medication needs. Knowledge of the particular risk factors is essential in formulating controlling and treatment protocols. This study set out to determine the risk ...

  16. OCCUPATIONAL RISK FACTORS IN KNEE OSTEOARTHRITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muralidhara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Osteoarthritis (OA, also often called “osteoarthrosis” or “degenerative joint disease” is the most common form of arthritis. MATERIALS AND METHODS Present retrospective statistical study was conducted at the Department of orthopaedics in a tertiary care hospital (Catering to a largely agricultural population over a period of 2 years from January 2012 to December 2014. RESULTS Prevalence of osteoarthritis common in farmers accounting to 70%. Other occupations at risk of OA of knee were, Teachers 12%, Housewives 08%, Athletes 04%, Policemen 04% and Drivers 02%. It is in conformity with most previous studies reviewed. CONCLUSION Osteoarthritis of Knee is a major health issue and important cause of disability in elderly population. Occupational risk factors are important in development of osteoarthritis.

  17. Age as a risk factor for suicide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kocić Sanja S.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. World Health Organization (WHO in its plan for health policy until the year 2010, has taken reduction of risk factors of suicide as its 12th aim. Because of the fact that the problem of suicide is also significant health problem in our society, the aim of this study was to examine the influence of life period as a risk factor for suicide in the area of the town of Kragujevac. Methods. In total 211 persons, both sexes, aged between 17 and 91 years, from the area of the town of Kragujevac, who had been committed a suicide during the period from 1996 to 2005, were included in a retrospective study. This study included the analysis of: conditions prior to suicide, locations of suicide, motives for suicide, the ways of committing suicide. For statistical analysis χ2 test and univariante regression model were used. Results. Average rate of suicide, in analyzed period, moved from 8.7 to 27 with a mean value of 14.6± 6.9. Suicide rates were the lowest in the age group from 15 to 24 years and the highest in the age group above 65 years (p < 0.05. Among the presuicidal conditions, within any age groups the presence of mental disease dominated as a factor for suicide, but within the oldest one in which organic diseases prevailed as a factor for suicide (p < 0.05. Statistically significant fact is that a house (flat was the main location for committing suicide in any age groups. Motives for suicide were significantly different within the groups and they were mostly unknown. Committing suicide by hanging was the most frequent way of suicide among any age groups. Univariant regression analysis failed to show any impact of age on the analyzed factors. Conclusion. Because of the fact that an average rate of suicide in elderly increases it is obligatory to primarily determine risk factors for suicide among people more than 65 years of age. Physicians should play the most important role in that.

  18. Identifying perinatal risk factors for infant maltreatment: an ecological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallisey Elaine J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Child maltreatment and its consequences are a persistent problem throughout the world. Public health workers, human services officials, and others are interested in new and efficient ways to determine which geographic areas to target for intervention programs and resources. To improve assessment efforts, selected perinatal factors were examined, both individually and in various combinations, to determine if they are associated with increased risk of infant maltreatment. State of Georgia birth records and abuse and neglect data were analyzed using an area-based, ecological approach with the census tract as a surrogate for the community. Cartographic visualization suggested some correlation exists between risk factors and child maltreatment, so bivariate and multivariate regression were performed. The presence of spatial autocorrelation precluded the use of traditional ordinary least squares regression, therefore a spatial regression model coupled with maximum likelihood estimation was employed. Results Results indicate that all individual factors or their combinations are significantly associated with increased risk of infant maltreatment. The set of perinatal risk factors that best predicts infant maltreatment rates are: mother smoked during pregnancy, families with three or more siblings, maternal age less than 20 years, births to unmarried mothers, Medicaid beneficiaries, and inadequate prenatal care. Conclusion This model enables public health to take a proactive stance, to reasonably predict areas where poor outcomes are likely to occur, and to therefore more efficiently allocate resources. U.S. states that routinely collect the variables the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS defines for birth certificates can easily identify areas that are at high risk for infant maltreatment. The authors recommend that agencies charged with reducing child maltreatment target communities that demonstrate the perinatal risks

  19. Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bona

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

  20. Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

    1989-10-01

    Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)

  1. Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T

    2018-05-02

    Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged 3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Perceptions of risk factors for road traffic accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Andrew; Smith, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Research has identified a number of risk factors for road traffic accidents. Some of these require education of drivers and a first step in this process is to assess perceptions of these risk factors to determine the current level of awareness. An online survey examined risk perception with the focus being on driver behavior, risk taking and fatigue. The results showed that drivers’ perceptions of the risk from being fatigued was lower than the perceived risk from the other factors.

  3. Risk management with regard to the effect of human factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important components in today's market is a party decision-making under risk and uncertainty. The first step in making such decisions - to adequately process the information for estimating the future value of assets and the interests of investors probabilities of each particular scenario. The next step is to choose the alternative that has the greatest utility for the investor. Each of these steps is associated with numerous difficulties, the roots of which stem from the specificity of human psychology. The article notes that an integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is being formed-tion, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of “risk” becomes now particularly relevant-ness. The article deals with along with economic forecasts of the risks and the human factor in decision-tions solutions. Along with economic forecasts, the report focuses on psychological problems and attempts to take into account the human factor in decision-making at the forecast of risks arising in the company. The important parameters are the status and position of the person in the society, as well as its social well-being. Analysis Meto-ing risk assessment concluded that the need to develop new models and methods of risk management, taking into account the four-lovecheskogo factor. Economic psychology and its applications have developed into a special branch of economic knowledge - the so-called behavioral economics, which surely develops a wide range of economic issues - from the actual theory of individual behavior to the problems of public choice and the financial economy. The most interesting item is the fact that the concept of “risk” is considered from different points of view - as the economist-mathematician with the position, and a psychologist.

  4. Adolescent self-harm and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jixiang; Song, Jianwei; Wang, Jing

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to define the characteristics of adolescents who have engaged in self-harm behavior and ascertain the risk factors. From January 2013 to January 2014, 4,176 adolescents from senior middle schools in Linyi, China, were administered four questionnaire surveys to ascertain the following: incidence of self-harm behavior regarding the frequency of different self-harm behaviors by group (never/one to five times/greater than five times in the last 6 months) and then comparing the self-harm behavior of the different subgroups; symptom self-check, comparing the differences between the adolescents with self-harm behavior and without in nine subscales (somatization, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anxiety, hostility, fear, paranoid, and psychosis); Adolescent Self-Rating Life Events Check List scores; and Egna Minnenav Barndoms Uppfostran (EMBU) scores. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors of self-harm in adolescents. The incidence of adolescent self-harm was 27.60%; the occurrence of adolescent self-harm was closely related to their mental health status, stressful life events, and EMBU. Being female, an urban student, or an only child; having poor school performance or experiences of stressful life events, harsh parenting styles, or excessive interference; and poor mental health were the risk factors for adolescent self-harm. The incidence of adolescent self-harm was high, and their mental health status, stressful life events, and EMBU affected the occurrence of adolescent self-harm, which is an issue that needs greater attention. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  5. Are low wages risk factors for hypertension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, J Paul; Du, Juan

    2012-12-01

    Socio-economic status (SES) is strongly correlated with hypertension. But SES has several components, including income and correlations in cross-sectional data need not imply SES is a risk factor. This study investigates whether wages-the largest category within income-are risk factors. We analysed longitudinal, nationally representative US data from four waves (1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The overall sample was restricted to employed persons age 25-65 years, n = 17 295. Separate subsamples were constructed of persons within two age groups (25-44 and 45-65 years) and genders. Hypertension incidence was self-reported based on physician diagnosis. Our study was prospective since data from three base years (1999, 2001, 2003) were used to predict newly diagnosed hypertension for three subsequent years (2001, 2003, 2005). In separate analyses, data from the first base year were used to predict time-to-reporting hypertension. Logistic regressions with random effects and Cox proportional hazards regressions were run. Negative and strongly statistically significant correlations between wages and hypertension were found both in logistic and Cox regressions, especially for subsamples containing the younger age group (25-44 years) and women. Correlations were stronger when three health variables-obesity, subjective measures of health and number of co-morbidities-were excluded from regressions. Doubling the wage was associated with 25-30% lower chances of hypertension for persons aged 25-44 years. The strongest evidence for low wages being risk factors for hypertension among working people were for women and persons aged 25-44 years.

  6. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  7. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  8. Postoperative mortality after inpatient surgery: Incidence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karamarie Fecho

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Karamarie Fecho1, Anne T Lunney1, Philip G Boysen1, Peter Rock2, Edward A Norfleet11Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 2Department of Anesthesiology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USAPurpose: This study determined the incidence of and identified risk factors for 48 hour (h and 30 day (d postoperative mortality after inpatient operations.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Anesthesiology’s Quality Indicator database as the main data source. The database was queried for data related to the surgical procedure, anesthetic care, perioperative adverse events, and birth/death/operation dates. The 48 h and 30 d cumulative incidence of postoperative mortality was calculated and data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test and generalized estimating equations.Results: The 48 h and 30 d incidence of postoperative mortality was 0.57% and 2.1%, respectively. Higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status scores, extremes of age, emergencies, perioperative adverse events and postoperative Intensive Care Unit admission were identified as risk factors. The use of monitored anesthesia care or general anesthesia versus regional or combined anesthesia was a risk factor for 30 d postoperative mortality only. Time under anesthesia care, perioperative hypothermia, trauma, deliberate hypotension and invasive monitoring via arterial, pulmonary artery or cardiovascular catheters were not identified as risk factors.Conclusions: Our findings can be used to track postoperative mortality rates and to test preventative interventions at our institution and elsewhere.Keywords: postoperative mortality, risk factors, operations, anesthesia, inpatient surgery

  9. Risk Factors for Cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand: A Systematic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamsa-ard, Siriporn; Kamsa-ard, Supot; Luvira, Vor; Suwanrungruang, Krittika; Vatanasapt, Patravoot; Wiangnon, Surapon

    2018-03-27

    Background and objective: Cholangiocarcinoma remains a serious public health concern in Thailand. While many of the risk factors for cholangiocarcinoma in western countries are well-recognized, it remains unclear whether they are the same in Thailand. We set out to investigate the risk factors for cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand. Methods: Starting March 4, 2016, we reviewed studies found using pre-specified keywords on SCOPUS, Pro Quest Science Direct, PubMed, and online public access catalog of Khon Kaen University. Two review authors independently screened studies for inclusion criteria, extracted data, and assessed the studied Risk of Bias. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tools were used to assess the quality of included studies. The risk effects of factors were estimated as a pooled adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval. The heterogeneity of results was considered using the I-square, Tau-square and Chi-square statistics. Results: A strong association was found between cholangiocarcinoma and age, Opisthorchis viverrini infection, eating raw cyprinoid fish, family history of cancer, liquor consumption, and taking praziquantel. There was only a mild association found between eating nitrite-containing foods, fresh vegetables, education, smoking behavior, and sex. No association was found between cholangiocarcinoma and eating fermented fish (Pla-ra), northeastern Thai or Chinese sausage, sticky rice, meat, chewing betel nut, or eating fruit. There were two protective factors including fresh vegetables consumption and education attainment. Conclusion: There are unique risk factors of cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand, including age, Opisthorchis viverrini infection, eating raw cyprinoid fish, family history of cancer, liquor consumption, and taking praziquantel. Creative Commons Attribution License

  10. Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2006-07-01

    An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

  11. Testicular cancer - epidemiology, etiology and risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ondrusova, M.; Ondrus, D.

    2012-01-01

    Testicular cancer is a rare malignancy, that affects 1-2 % of male population. Trends of testicular cancer mortality are stable for a long period of time, even that incidence shows a rapid growth. This paper deals with national trends in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in Slovakia from 1968 to 2007 by using the join-point regression analysis to propose potential changes in health care. The authors noted a statistically significant increase in the values of incidence and improvement in mortality after 1975. Paper also deals with the etiology and risk factors of this malignancy. (author)

  12. Subconjunctival hemorrhage: risk factors and potential indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarlan B

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Bercin Tarlan,1 Hayyam Kiratli21Department of Ophthalmology, Kozluk State Hospital, Batman, Turkey; 2Ocular Oncology Service, Hacettepe University Schoolof Medicine, Ankara, TurkeyAbstract: Subconjunctival hemorrhage is a benign disorder that is a common cause of acute ocular redness. The major risk factors include trauma and contact lens usage in younger patients, whereas among the elderly, systemic vascular diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, and arteriosclerosis are more common. In patients in whom subconjunctival hemorrhage is recurrent or persistent, further evaluation, including workup for systemic hypertension, bleeding disorders, systemic and ocular malignancies, and drug side effects, is warranted.Keywords: subconjunctival hemorrhage, contact lens, hypertension, red eye

  13. [Risk factors in post partum depression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Monica; Battaglia, Eliana; Massimino, Marta; Aguglia, Eugenio

    2012-01-01

    It is commonly believed that pregnancy is a time of good mental health. However it has been observed, until recently, that many pregnant women, above all in post partum period, manifest depressive symptoms like sadness, social withdrawal and lack of motivation. The consequences are enormous, for mother mental health and for the psychical development of the baby. It becomes therefore necessary to screening and to precociously intervene on these pathological conditions and thanks also to the suitable knowledge of the risk factors for the potential development of depression post partum.

  14. Risk Factors in Euro Adoption by Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Maria BĂDÎRCEA

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The costs and benefits of adopting a unique currency have been studied and outlined by the optimum currency areas theory. This theory of Mundell has suffered modifications, a series of economists identifying and introducing a series of subsequent or additional criteria in the analysis. Starting from the costs indicated by the optimum currency areas theory and its further developments, I have identified a series of factors that I believe to represent future risks for the Romanian economy within the process of adopting the unique euro currency.

  15. Risk factors & screening modalities for oral cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chau, Steven

    2008-01-01

    Dentists are at the forefront for screening oral cancer. In addition to the well known carcinogenic potential of tobacco and alcohol, betel nut chewing and human papilloma virus are important risk factors in the development of oral cancer. To aid in screening and decreasing morbidity and mortality from oral cancer, a variety of techniques have been developed. These techniques show promise but they require additional investigations to determine their usefulness in oral cancer detection. Dentists need to be well educated and vigilant when dealing with all patients they encounter. Early detection, diagnosis and treatment are critical for the effective management of oral cancers.

  16. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. te Linde

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

  17. Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury in Severe Rhabdomyolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Eva; Soler, María J.; Rap, Oana; Barrios, Clara; Orfila, María A.; Pascual, Julio

    2013-01-01

    Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a life-threatening complication of severe rhabdomyolysis. This study was conducted to assess risk factors for AKI and to develop a risk score for early prediction. Methods Retrospective observational cohort study with a 9-year follow-up, carried out in an acute-care teaching-affiliated hospital. A total of 126 patients with severe rhabdomyolysis defined as serum creatine kinase (CK) > 5,000 IU/L fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for AKI. Based on the values obtained for each variable, a risk score and prognostic probabilities were estimated to establish the risk for developing AKI. Results The incidence of AKI was 58%. Death during hospitalization was significantly higher among patients with AKI, compared to patients without AKI (19.2% vs 3.6%, p = 0.008). The following variables were independently associated with AKI: peak CK (odds ratio [OR] 4.9, 95%CI 1.4-16.8), hypoalbuminemia (rhabdomyolysis may be useful in clinical practice, particularly to implement early preventive measures. PMID:24367578

  18. Risk factors for opioid overdose and awareness of overdose risk among veterans prescribed chronic opioids for addiction or pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, Christine M; Miller, Shannon C; Tiffany, Elizabeth; Winhusen, Theresa; Winstanley, Erin L; Stein, Michael D

    2016-01-01

    Rising overdose fatalities among U.S. veterans suggest veterans taking prescription opioids may be at risk for overdose. However, it is unclear whether veterans prescribed chronic opioids are aware of this risk. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors and determine awareness of risk for opioid overdose in veterans treated with opioids for chronic pain, using veterans treated with methadone or buprenorphine for opioid use disorder as a high-risk comparator group. In the current study, 90 veterans on chronic opioid medication, for either opioid use disorder or pain management, completed a questionnaire assessing risk factors, knowledge, and self-estimate of risk for overdose. Nearly all veterans in both groups had multiple overdose risk factors, although individuals in the pain management group had on average a significantly lower total number of risk factors than did individuals in the opioid use disorder group (5.9 versus 8.5, p opioid overdose risk factors (12.1 versus 13.5, p opioid overdose risk factors. Our results suggest that veterans in both groups underestimated their risk for opioid overdose. Expansion of overdose education to include individuals on chronic opioids for pain management and a shift in educational approaches to overdose prevention may be indicated.

  19. Distribution of risk factors among children with febrile convulsions in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The proximal risk factors are male gender, age < 2 years, 2nd birth order and positive family nd history. The social status of families is a distal risk factor. The second year of life and 2 birth order are the strongest predisposing factors to the development of FC. Key words: Febrile convulsions, Risk factors, Benin City, Nigeria ...

  20. Risk factors for corneal ectasia after LASIK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabbara, Khalid F; Kotb, Amgad A

    2006-09-01

    To establish a grading system that helps identify high-risk individuals who may experience corneal ectasia after LASIK. Retrospective, comparative, interventional case series. One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients (148 eyes) were included in this study. Thirty-seven patients who underwent LASIK at other refractive centers experienced corneal ectasia in 1 eye after LASIK. One hundred eleven eyes of 111 patients who underwent successful LASIK during the same period were age and gender matched and served as controls. All patients underwent preoperative and postoperative topographic analysis of the cornea. The follow-up period in both groups of patients ranged from 2 to 5 years, with a mean follow-up of 3.6 years. All patients underwent LASIK for myopia (spherical equivalent, -4.00 to -8.00 diopters). Corneal keratometry, oblique cylinder, pachymetry, posterior surface elevation, difference between the inferior and superior corneal diopteric power, and posterior best sphere fit (BSF) over anterior BSF were given a grade of 1 to 3 each. An ectasia grading system was established, and the cumulative risk score was assessed. Patients who had a grade of 7 or less showed no evidence of corneal ectasia, whereas 16 (59%) of 27 patients who had a grade of 8 to 12 had corneal ectasia. Twenty-one (100%) of 21 patients with a grade of more than 12 had corneal ectasia after LASIK (P<0.0001). A risk score may help in the prediction of patients who are at risk of experiencing corneal ectasia after LASIK. A prospective clinical study is needed to assess the validity of these risk factors.

  1. Musculoskeletal Injuries and Their Associated Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Jahangiri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims :Prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs is high among office workers. Long time seated posture, working with computer, repetitive movements and inappropriate environmental conditions may have causal effects in these disorders. High prevalence rate of MSDs makes ergonomics assessment and working conditions improvement necessary. Designing an assessment checklist and calculating ergonomics indices can be useful in this evaluation. This study was conducted with the objectives of determination of prevalence rate, ergonomics assessment of working conditions and determination of factors associated with MSDs among office workers. Methods:In this study 400 randomly selected office workers participated. Nordic musculoskeletal disorders questionnaire was applied to determine prevalence rate of MSDs. Working conditions were assessed by the designed ergonomics checklist and ergonomic risk factors were identified. Data were analyzed using statistical tests including t-test, Chi-square and test of proportion by SPSS software (Version 12.0. Results:The highest prevalence rates of MSDs were reported in lower back and neck regions (49% and 47%, respectively. Statistical analysis revealed that there were significant association between occurrence of MSDs and calculated ergonomics indices (P<0.05. The mean of ergonomics index among those suffered from MSDs were less than other healthy workers indicating inappropriate ergonomics conditions. Calculation of OR also revealed that ergonomics conditions was associated with MSDs occurrence among workers (P<0.05. Totally, 53.3% of the office workers studied had poor working conditions. Awkward working posture and inappropriate workstation design were recognized as the main risk factors in the office workplace.  Conclusion:Most ergonomics problems were originated from bad postures and inappropriate design of workstation. Any interventional program for working conditions improvement should

  2. We can do better than effective dose for estimating or comparing low-dose radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    The effective dose concept was designed to compare the generic risks of exposure to different radiation fields. More commonly these days, it is used to estimate or compare radiation-induced cancer risks. For various reasons, effective dose represents flawed science: for instance, the tissue-specific weighting factors used to calculate effective dose are a subjective mix of different endpoints; and the marked and differing age and gender dependencies for different health detriment endpoints are not taken into account. This paper suggests that effective dose could be replaced with a new quantity, ‘effective risk’, which, like effective dose, is a weighted sum of equivalent doses to different tissues. Unlike effective dose, where the tissue-dependent weighting factors are a set of generic, subjective committee-defined numbers, the weighting factors for effective risk are simply evaluated tissue-specific lifetime cancer risks per unit equivalent dose. Effective risk, which has the potential to be age and gender specific if desired, would perform the same comparative role as effective dose, be just as easy to estimate, be less prone to misuse, be more directly understandable, and would be based on solid science. An added major advantage is that it gives the users some feel for the actual numerical values of the radiation risks they are trying to control.

  3. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  4. Estimating risk at a Superfund site contaminated with radiological and chemical wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temeshy, A.; Liedle, J.M.; Sims, L.M.; Efird, C.R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the method and results for estimating carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic effects at a Superfund site that is radiologically and chemically contaminated. Risk to receptors from disposal of waste in soil and resulting contamination of groundwater, air, surface water, and sediment is quantified. Specific risk assessment components which are addressed are the exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and the resulting risk characterization. In the exposure assessment, potential exposure pathways are identified using waste disposal inventory information for soil and modeled information for other media. Models are used to calculate future radionuclide concentrations in groundwater, soil, surface water and air. Chemical exposure concentrations are quantified using site characterization data. Models are used to determine concentrations of chemicals in surface water and in air. Toxicity parameters used to quantify the dose-response relationship associated with the carcinogenic contaminants are slope factors and with noncarcinogenic contaminants are reference doses. In the risk characterization step, results from the exposure assessment and toxicity assessment are summarized and integrated into quantitative risk estimates for carcinogens and hazard induces for noncarcinogens. Calculated risks for carcinogenic contaminants are compared with EPA's target risk range. At WAG 6, the risk from radionuclides and chemicals for an on-WAG homesteader exceeds EPA's target risk range. Hazard indices are compared to unity for noncarcinogenic contaminants. At WAG 6, the total pathway hazard index for the on-WAG homesteader exceeds unity

  5. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  6. Risk information in support of cost estimates for the Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Section 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelston, G.M.; Jarvis, M.F.; Warren, B.R.; Von Berg, R.

    1995-06-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)(1) effort on the overall Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) project consists of four installation-specific work components performed in succession. These components include (1) development of source terms, 92) collection of data and preparation of environmental settings reports, (3) calculation of unit risk factors, and (4) utilization of the unit risk factors in Automated Remedial Action Methodology (ARAM) for computation of target concentrations and cost estimates. This report documents work completed for the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for components 2 and 3. The product of this phase of the BEMR project is the development of unit factors (i.e., unit transport factors, unit exposure factors, and unit risk factors). Thousands of these unit factors are gene rated and fill approximately one megabyte of computer information per installation. The final unit risk factors (URF) are transmitted electronically to BEMR-Cost task personnel as input to a computer program (ARAM). Abstracted files and exhibits of the URF information are included in this report. These visual formats are intended to provide a sample of the final task deliverable (the URF files) which can be easily read without a computer

  7. Factorized Estimation of Partially Shared Parameters in Diffusion Networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 19 (2017), s. 5153-5163 ISSN 1053-587X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-06678P; GA ČR GA16-09848S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Diffusion network * Diffusion estimation * Heterogeneous parameters * Multitask networks Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information OBOR OECD: Applied mathematics Impact factor: 4.300, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/AS/dedecius-0477044.pdf

  8. Vascular risk factors, cognitve decline, and dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Duron

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available E Duron, Olivier HanonBroca Hospital, Paris, FranceAbstract: Dementia is one of the most important neurological disorders in the elderly. Aging is associated with a large increase in the prevalence and incidence of degenerative (Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia, leading to a devastating loss of autonomy. In view of the increasing longevity of populations worldwide, prevention of dementia has turned into a major public health challenge. In the past decade, several vascular risk factors have been found to be associated with vascular dementia but also Alzheimer’s disease. Some longitudinal studies, have found significant associations between hypertension, diabetus mellitus, and metabolic syndrome, assessed at middle age, and dementia. Studies assessing the link between hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, smoking, and dementia have given more conflicting results. Furthermore, some studies have highlighted the possible protective effect of antihypertensive therapy on cognition and some trials are evaluating the effects of statins and treatments for insulin resistance. Vascular risk factors and their treatments are a promising avenue of research for prevention of dementia, and further long-term, placebo-controlled, randomized studies, need to be performed.Keywords: dementia, hypertension, diabetus mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, metabolic syndrome

  9. Cephalometric risk factors of obstructive sleep apnea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayat, Mohamad; Shariati, Mahsa; Rakhshan, Vahid; Abbasi, Mohsen; Fateh, Ali; Sobouti, Farhad; Davoudmanesh, Zeinab

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies on risk factors of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are highly controversial and mostly identifying a few cephalometric risk factors. OSA diagnosis was made according to the patients' apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Included were 74 OSA patients (AHI > 10) and 52 control subjects (AHI ≤ 10 + free of other OSA symptoms). In both groups, 18 cephalometric parameters were traced (SNA, SNB, ANB, the soft palate's length (PNS-P), inferior airway space, the distance from the mandibular plane to the hyoid (MP-H), lengths of mandible (Go-Gn) and maxilla (PNS-ANS), vertical height of airway (VAL), vertical height of the posterior maxilla (S-PNS), superior posterior airway space (SPAS), middle airway space, distances from hyoid to third cervical vertebra and retrognathion (HH1), C3 (C3H), and RGN (HRGN), the maximum thickness of soft palate (MPT), tongue length (TGL), and the maximum height of tongue). These parameters were compared using t-test. Significant variables were SPAS (p = 0.027), MPT, TGL, HH1, C3H, HRGN, PNS-P, S-PNS, MP-H, VAL, and Go-Gn (all p values ≤ 0.006). OSA patients exhibited thicker and longer soft palates, hyoid bones more distant from the vertebrae, retrognathion, and mandibular plane, higher posterior maxillae, longer mandibles, and smaller superior-posterior airways.

  10. Risk factors for hearing loss in elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Vasconcelos Chaves Martins

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To identify risk factors related to sensorineural hearing loss in elderly. Methods: The sample consisted of 60 selected elderly, divided into two groups: the Case Group, composed by 30 individuals, 21 females and 9 males, aged at least 60 years, presenting sensorineural hearing loss, and the Control Group, composed by 30 individuals matched on gender and age, with normal hearing. The patients were submitted to audiological anamnesis and tonal audiometry. The hearing impairment was defined according to average threshold greater than 35dBNA, in the frequencies of 1,000; 2,000 and 4,000 Hz, in the best ear. Results: Statistically significant odds ratios were: a to audiological history: noise exposure and family history of deafness; b to situations involving hearing difficulty: television, church, telephone, silent environment, spatial location of sound, difficulty with voices and noisy environment; c to otologic history: tinnitus, otorrhea and nausea; and d to medical history: visual problems, smoke, alcohol, thyroid problems and kidney disease. Conclusion: The findings of this study highlighted, for sensorineural hearing loss, risk factors related to audiologic, otologic and medical history, and to situations involving hearing difficulty.

  11. Post biopsy pneumothorax: Risk factors and course

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, J.A.; Retamar, J.A.; Blazquez, J.; Castano, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    The was to study the natural course of pneumothorax produced after aspiration biopsy in the attempt to differentiate those cases that will resolve spontaneously from those that will require drainage, and to assess the possible risk factors associated with the development of this entity. Eighty-nine CT-guided aspiration biopsies were performed in 80 patients. Control CT was done immediately after the procedure and 24 hours later. When pneumothorax persisted, CT was repeated at 48 h, 72 h, day 5 and day 7 or until a drainage tube was introduced. The cases of pneumothorax were classified as minimal, anterior or anterolateral. Seven variables were assessed as possible risk factors for its occurrence. Pneumothorax developed on 29 occasions (32.5%), requiring drainage in 12 cases (13.5%). In 20 patients (22%), pneumothorax occurred immediately, while in the remaining 9 (10%) it was detected in the 24 h CT scan. When studied according to type, drainage was required in 3 of the 19 cases of minimal or anterior pneumothorax (15%) and in 9 or the 10 cases of anterolateral location (90%) (p<0.0005). The mean thickness of the parenchyma punctured was 3.4 cm +- 2.2. cm when pneumothorax developed and 1.3 cm+- 2 cm when it did not (p<0.0001). There is a statistically significant association between the development of anterolateral pneumothorax and the need for chest drainage. The thickness of the punctured parenchyma is associated with the production of pneumothorax. 16 refs

  12. Risk Factors for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estrella de la Caridad Armenteros Espino

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: cervix cancer constitutes the second cause of death worldwide, with new diagnosis each year. Objective: to determine the risk factors of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in the municipality of Cruces. Methods: it was developed an analytical research with case and control design from November 2013 to November 2014. The group of cases was formed of the 34 women with this diagnosis. There were selected 64 females from the same environment with the same age for the control group. The data obtained by surveys and clinical records reviews were presented in absolute numbers and percentages. It was used Chi-squared test and odd ratio. Results: 52 % of women with neoplasia were less than 25 years old. Significant differences were found which associate neoplasia with early sexual intercourse, sexually transmitted infections by Papilloma virus, Plane genital condyloma, and the use of oral contraceptive pills. Multiple sex partner was a frequent antecedent. Conclusion: risk factors associated to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in the group of women studied in the Cruces municipality were early sexual intercourse, mainly before 15 years old, multiple sex partner, sexually communicated diseases and the use of oral contraceptive pills for more than 5 years.

  13. Sexting; your definition, risk factors and consecuences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinthia Tomasa Mercado Contreras

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The advance of the technology in communications has led to social networking sites fulfill an important role in society. Among the most used and known is Facebook, that social network allows to make public certain information and provides the opportunity to hold private conversations. This new trend of talks, and the natural desire to explore sexuality has led young people interested at phenomenon known as sexting. This phenomenon, from some of the negative consequences became public, has attracted the interest from parents, teachers, researchers and health workers, however, have not been universally well defined. This lack of unanimous conceptualization has led to confusion within the psychological, social and legal area. That is why in the present article presents results of a systematic review of articles that speak about sexting. The select articles were those that were published from 2009 to 2014, in which work was focused to adolescents and speak about risk factors and consequences of the phenomenon. The articles were analyzed by looking at the similarities and differences in their definition of sexting and their results, identifying risk factors and consequences related considered. With the analysis was possible to categorize their limitations and finally offer a possible definition of sexting.

  14. Adolescent fatherhood: Risk factor or resilience?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Benatuil

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of the adolescent pregnancy has been historically centered in the mother, the preponderant focus has been considers the maternity in this stage of the vital cycle as a factor of risk. Nowadays, have begun some studies that focus the problem of the adolescent pregnancy being centered in the father’s figure to appear and proposing a healthy focus, starting from the introduction of such concepts like Resilience. The present article, is a theoretical work, it is carried out to leave of secondary data. The objective is the compilation of studies and information on the subject of adolescent fatherhood from a less explored focus, considering the factors of risk and resilience. Different studies are raised with Latin American youths. Also are analyzed the access possibilities to the sanitary system from the youths, the knowledge of birth-control methods and the participation in programs of reproductive health. It outlines the importance of including the males in the whole process of procreation and the boy’s upbringing. 

  15. Risk Factors of Erythrocytosis Post Renal Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razeghi Effat

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-transplant erythrocytosis (PTE is characterized by persistently ele-vated hematocrit level 0 51%. This complication is reported to develop in 10-20% of renal allografts recipients, mostly 2 years after kidney transplantation. PTE is self-limited in 25% of the patients; however it may persist in patients with an increased susceptibility for thrombosis and potential fatal outcome. To evaluate the prevalence and risk factors of PTE in our center, we reviewed the records of 235 patients who received renal allografts from 1999 to 2004. Polycythemia was found in 45 (19% patients. There was no significant correlation of polycythemia and age, history of hypertension, diabetes, pre-transplant hematocrit level, pre-transplant history of transfusion, graft′s function, and source of kidney. A significantly higher proportion of PTE patients were males, patients with history of polycystic kidney disease, and patients with glomerulonephritis. We conclude that PTE is an important complication of kidney transplantation. There are several risk factors that should be addressed to prevent this complication.

  16. Lifestyle Decreases Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavíček, Jaroslav; Kittnar, Otomar; Fraser, Gary E.; Medová, Eva; Konečná, Jana; Žižka, Robert; Dohnalová, Alena; Novák, Vladimír

    2009-01-01

    Summary The morbidity and mortality of the cardiovascular diseases is high in the developed countries. The lifestyle changes are capable to decrease it by 50%. The aim of the present study was to measure the parameters of some risk factors before and after a one-week NEW START rehabilitative retreat. 1,349 volunteers, 320 men, 1,029 woman, mean age 51±14.5 (SD) years participated in 30 rehabilitative retreats from 1999–2006 in the Czech Republic, using a low-fat, low-energy, lacto-ovo-vegetarian diet and exercise, in a stress-free environment. Body weight, height, BMI, blood pressure, heart rate, serum cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. Body weight decreased in 1,223 measured persons from 71.2±14.38 (SD) to 70.6±14.02 kg (pSeventh-day Adventists than in controls who never observed the diet and avail the lifestyle programs. The parameters were nonsignificantly changed one year after finishing the retreat in the sample of 68 persons showing the positive effect of retreats. Our results showed, that the intake of a low-fat, low-energy diet, over the course of one week in a stress-free environment, had positive impact on the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases. PMID:19256282

  17. Low Birth Weight And Maternal Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Secma Nigam

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives : To study tile socio-economic and maternal risk factors associated with low birth weight babies and to measure the strength of association. Study Design : Hospital based case-control study. Setting : Shri Sayajirao General Hospital, Vadodara. Sample size : 312 cases and 312 controls. Participants : Cases Mothers who delivered single, live baby less than 2500 gms i.e. low birth weight. Controls:- Mothers who delivered single live baby more than 2500 gms. Study Variable : Maternal age, literacy, anaemia, outcome of last pregnancy. Statistical Analysis : Chi-square test and odd’s ratio. Result : Among cases, 14.5% mothers had age less titan 20 yrs as compared to 7.3% mothers in control group. 68.6% mothers amongst cases were illiterate against 46.5% mothers in control group. 53.8% mothers had haemoglobin level 10gm% or less amongst cases and no statistically significant difference was found between low birth weight and outcome of last pregnancy Conclusion : The maternal risk factors associated with low birth weight in mothers attending S.S.G. hospital age maternal anaemia (OR 2.66, illiteracy (OR 2.51, maternal age less than 20 yrs. (OR 2.OS. No association was found between low birth rate and outcome of last pregnancy

  18. Injury risk factors among telemark skiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuggy, M L; Ong, R

    2000-01-01

    We performed a population survey of telemark skiers over two ski seasons to determine specific risk factors for injury. The survey inquired about the skier's sex, experience, equipment used, injuries, and number of days skied in each season. The respondents completed the surveys whether or not they were injured while skiing. We received 677 responses from telemark skiing clubs, with 19,962 skier-days of data. The number of self-reported injuries was 178, for an overall self-reported injury rate of 8.9 per 1000 skier-days. Knee injuries (N = 48) were the most common injury (27%), followed by thumb (N = 32, 18%) and shoulder (N = 21, 12%) injuries. Specific risk factors for injury were identified with multivariate regression and survival analysis. The skill level of the skier had a significant injury-sparing effect, as did the use of plastic telemark boots. The protective effect of the plastic boots was likely due to the increased stability they provided compared with traditional leather boots. There were fewer knee injuries with the recently available releasable bindings for telemark skis. Sex and age had no significant impact on injury rates in this study population. As all reported deaths associated with telemark sking were due to environmental hazards, skiers must continue to pay close attention to these hazards in the backcountry.

  19. CLIMATE AS A RISK FACTOR FOR TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ÁKOS NÉMETH

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate risk factors for tourism are surveyed and illustrated with regard to the expected climate changes in Hungary. These changes are not at all advantageous and which affect the business in question both directly and indirectly. These are the summer resort tourism (characterised by bioclimatic indices. Green tourism is the next one to characterise, including skiing, mountain climbing and eco-tourism, as well. Here both day-to-day weather extremes and long-lasting effects on the biota (e.g. drought, or inundation for plain-area eco-tourism. Last, but not least the urban (cultural- and shopping- tourism is presented, since the large towns exhibit their special climate and different risks. The paper intends to specify these meteorological factors and effects also in terms of the different types of touristic activities. The general statements on the effect of weather and climate on tourism are illustrated by a few individual parameters and also by the so called Physiologically Equivalent Temperature. Annual and diurnal course of this parameter are presented, together with various trends in this variable at different sites and in different (hot and cold extremities of the occurring values. Other examples, helping the tourism industry are presented in various climate conditions of the country. They include high precipitation and high relative humidity information. The paper also lists the possible adaptation measures to extreme events and also their likely changes in time.

  20. Risk Factors in Development of Postoperative Empyema

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdar Ozkan

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Many etiological factors play a role in the occurrence of postoperative empyema. We aimed to define the effects of these factors on the development of empyema. Material and Method: Two hundred and eighty-eight cases from our clinic who underwent tube thoracostomy and/or were operated due to any cause out of the primary empyema  between August 2009 and May 2010 were prospectively studied in terms of empyema development. Data comprised gender, age, chemoradiotherapy, surgical procedure, intraoperative thoracic lavage with povidone-iodine, emergency surgery status, sharing the same room with other cases with empyema, primary disease, additional comorbidity, operation duration, drain number, complication, number of patients in the room, and drain discontinuation and hospitalization duration. Blood leukocyte-neutrophil count was ordered in all cases at 3-day intervals, and fluid culture specimens were simultaneously collected from cases with drains. Drainage fluid culture specimens were evaluated with “Automated Identification and Antibiotic Susceptibility Testing” using standard procedures. Empyema cases who developed clinical manifestation and/or with bacterial growth in culture specimens were studied in terms of risk factors. The findings were analyzed using SPSS (version 16. Results: The results showed that gender, age, chemoradiotherapy, surgical procedure, intraoperative thoracic lavage with povidone-iodine, emergency surgery status, and sharing a same room with other empyema cases were not significantly correlated with the risk of empyema development. Contribution of the primary disease (p<0.05, additional comorbidity (p<0.05, operation duration (p<0.05, drain number (p<0.05, complication (p<0.05, number of people in the room (p<0.05, drain discontinuation time (p<0.05 and hospitalization duration (p<0.05 were found to be significant in the development of postoperative empyema. Discussion: Postoperative development of empyema is one

  1. Risk factors associated with childhood asthma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majeed, R.; Rajar, U.D.M.

    2008-01-01

    To identify the risk factors associated with childhood asthma, in children attending Isra University Hospital, Hyderabad. The study included 398 age-matched children (200 asthmatic and 198 non-asthmatic). Information was collected concerning their familial history of atopy, birth weight, environment, breastfeeding, disease and treatment history. Odds ratio was calculated for determining the risk. The children were aged between 12 months and 8 years and 60% were male. The asthmatic children were hospitalized more frequently than the non-asthmatic children (p < 0.0001). Most of the asthmatic children lived in the urban areas of Hyderabad (odd ratio (OR) 16.7, 95% CI = 3.1-14.6, p < 0.0001), had a parental history of asthma (OR 26.8, 95% CI = 10.8-68.2, p < 0.0001) or allergic rhinitis (OR 4, 95% CI 1.2-13.4, p= 0.01), 38.5% had at least one person who smoked, and were weaned earlier than the non-asthmatic children (OR =12.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.4, p < 0.01). Childhood asthma was strongly associated with a family history of asthma and allergic rhinitis, the urban place of residence, having smokers as parents and early weaning from maternal breast milk. The results highlight the need to educate the parents about the risk of smoking and early weaning in the development of asthma. (author)

  2. Epigenetic Risk Factors in PTSD and Depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Joachim Raabe

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological and clinical studies have shown that children exposed to adverse experiences are at increased risk for the development of depression, anxiety disorders and PTSD. A history of child abuse and maltreatment increases the likelihood of being subsequently exposed to traumatic events or of developing PTSD as an adult. The brain is highly plastic during early life and encodes acquired information into lasting memories that normally subserve adaptation. Translational studies in rodents showed that enduring sensitization of neuronal and neuroendocrine circuits in response to early life adversity are likely risk factors of life time vulnerability to stress. Hereby, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis integrates cognitive, behavioural and emotional responses to early-life stress and can be epigenetically programmed during sensitive windows of development. Epigenetic mechanisms, comprising reciprocal regulation of chromatin structure and DNA methylation, are important to establish and maintain sustained, yet potentially reversible, changes in gene transcription. The relevance of these findings for the development of PTSD requires further studies in humans where experience-dependent epigenetic programming can additionally depend on genetic variation in the underlying substrates which may protect from or advance disease development. Overall, identification of early-life stress associated epigenetic risk markers informing on previous stress history can help to advance early diagnosis, personalized prevention and timely therapeutic interventions, thus reducing long-term social and health costs.

  3. Systematic review of reviews of risk factors for intracranial aneurysms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, Mike

    2008-01-01

    Systematic reviews of systematic reviews identify good quality reviews of earlier studies of medical conditions. This article describes a systematic review of systematic reviews performed to investigate factors that might influence the risk of rupture of an intracranial aneurysm. It exemplifies the technique of this type of research and reports the finding of a specific study. The annual incidence of subarachnoid haemorrhage resulting from the rupture of intracranial aneurysms is estimated to be nine per 100,000. A large proportion of people who have this bleed, will die or remain dependent on the care of others for some time. Reliable knowledge about the risks of subarachnoid haemorrhage in different populations will help in planning, screening and prevention strategies and in predicting the prognosis of individual patients. If the necessary data were available in the identified reviews, an estimate for the numerical relationship between a particular characteristic and the risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage was included in this report. The identification of eligible systematic reviews relied mainly on the two major bibliographic databases of the biomedical literature: PubMed and EMBASE. These were searched in 2006, using specially designed search strategies. Approximately 2,000 records were retrieved and each of these was checked carefully against the eligibility criteria for this systematic review. These criteria required that the report be a systematic review of studies assessing the risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage in patients known to have an unruptured intracranial aneurysm or of studies that had investigated the characteristics of people who experienced a subarachnoid haemorrhage without previously being known to have an unruptured aneurysm. Reports which included more than one systematic review were eligible and each of these reviews was potentially eligible. The quality of each systematic review was assessed. In this review, 16 separate reports were

  4. Risk factors of fall in elderly people

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dijana Avdić

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Falls are the leading accidental cause of death among elderly people in their homes. Falls and their consequences are the primary reason in 40% of admissions to hospitals for people older than 65 years. The study population consisted of 77 randomly selected patients of both genders older then 65 years. Each patient was tested in his/her home and was completely informed about the methodology and the goals of investigation. Based on the exclusion criteria, three patients were excluded from the study, which means the investigation was conducted on 27 males (35.06% and 50 females (64.94% with the average age being 71.23 ± 5.63 years.For each patient, a specially prepared questionnaire about risk factors was filled in. The sum of affirmative answers represented a relative index of fall risk. All patients were evaluated through Folstein’s Mini-Mental State Examination Test that is suitable for on-sight use in patient’s home. The score value over 20 excludes dementias, delirium, schizophrenia and affective disorders.Considering the values of the risk factor, scores obtained by the questionnaire and MMSE test scores, statistically significant differences were found between males and females (p < 0.005, respectively p < 0.01, “fallers” and “non-fallers” (p < 0.001, respectively p < 0.01, while considering the relation to the way of living (alone or with family, there were no statistically significant differences (p > 0.05.

  5. Job Strain as a Risk Factor for Type 2 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nyberg, Solja T; Fransson, Eleonor I; Heikkilä, Katriina

    2014-01-01

    with baseline questionnaires. Incident type 2 diabetes at follow-up was ascertained using national health registers, clinical screening, and self-reports. We analyzed data for each study using Cox regression and pooled the study-specific estimates in fixed-effect meta-analyses. RESULTS: There were 3,703 cases......OBJECTIVE: The status of psychosocial stress at work as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes is unclear because existing evidence is based on small studies and is subject to confounding by lifestyle factors, such as obesity and physical inactivity. This collaborative study examined whether stress...... at work, defined as "job strain," is associated with incident type 2 diabetes independent of lifestyle factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We extracted individual-level data for 124,808 diabetes-free adults from 13 European cohort studies participating in the IPD-Work Consortium. We measured job strain...

  6. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Holst, Klaus K.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

    2014-01-01

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experience...... events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component...... the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence...... over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer...

  7. Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.

    1998-01-01

    In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4

  8. Lactation and changes in maternal metabolic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Erica P; Lewis, Cora E; Wei, Gina S; Whitmer, Rachel A; Quesenberry, Charles P; Sidney, Steve

    2007-03-01

    To examine the relationship between duration of lactation and changes in maternal metabolic risk factors. This 3-year prospective study examined changes in metabolic risk factors among lactating women from preconception to postweaning and among nonlactating women from preconception to postdelivery, in comparison with nongravid women. Of 1,051 (490 black, 561 white) women who attended two consecutive study visits in years 7 (1992-1993) and 10 (1995-1996), 942 were nongravid and 109 had one interim birth. Of parous women, 48 (45%) did not lactate, and 61 (55%) lactated and weaned before year 10. The lactated and weaned women were subdivided by duration of lactation into less than 3 months and 3 months or more. Multiple linear regression models estimated mean 3-year changes in metabolic risk factors adjusted for age, race, parity, education, and behavioral covariates. Both parous women who did not lactate and parous women who lactated and weaned gained more weight (+5.6, +4.4 kg) and waist girth (+5.3, +4.9 cm) than nongravid women over the 3-year interval; Pdecrements for both parous women who did not lactate and parous women who lactated and weaned were 4.0 mg/dL greater than for nongravid women (Pdecrement in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-1.3 mg/dL versus -7.3 mg/dL for less than 3 months; P<.01). Lactation may attenuate unfavorable metabolic risk factor changes that occur with pregnancy, with effects apparent after weaning. As a modifiable behavior, lactation may affect women's future risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. II.

  9. Risk factors for postpartum urinary incontinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lígia da Silva Leroy

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk factors for postpartum urinary incontinence (UI and its characteristics. METHOD: This was a case-control study with 344 puerperal women (77 cases and 267 controls with up to 90 days postpartum. In a single session, participants were given a questionnaire with sociodemographic and clinical data and two others that assessed urine leakage, leakage situations, and type of UI. RESULTS: Stress UI was present in 45.5% of the women, incidents of urine leakage several times a day in 44.2%, of which 71.4% were in small amounts and 57.1% when coughing or sneezing. In 70.1% of cases, UI began during pregnancy and remained through the postpartum period. After running a binary logistic regression model, the following factors remained in the final model: UI during pregnancy (OR 12.82, CI 95% 6.94 - 23.81, p<0.0001, multiparity (OR 2.26, CI 95% 1.22 - 4.19, p=0.009, gestational age at birth greater or equal to 37 weeks (OR 2.52, CI 95% 1.16 - 5.46, p=0.02 and constipation (OR 1.94, CI 95% 1.05 - 5.46, p=0.035. CONCLUSION: Most often, UI first appeared during pregnancy and remained through the postpartum period. Urinary incontinence during pregnancy, multiparity, gestational age at birth greater or equal to 37 weeks, and constipation were presented as risk factors. In the studied group, stress UI was more frequent.

  10. Hepatotoxicity with antituberculosis drugs: the risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmood, K.; Samo, A.H.; Jairamani, K.L.; Talib, A.

    2007-01-01

    To assess the severity and frequency of hepatotoxicity caused by different antituberculosis (ATT) drugs and to evaluate whether concurrence of risk factors influence the antituberculosis drug induced hepatotoxicity. This prospective cohort study was conducted in Medical Unit-V and OPD department of Civil Hospital Karachi from July 2004 to July 2005. A total of 339 patients diagnosed of active tuberculosis infection with normal pretreatment liver function were monitored clinically as well as biochemically. Their data were collected on proforma and patients were treated with Isoniazid, Rifampicin and Pyrazinamide. Duration after which derangement in function, if any, occurred and time taken for normalization was noted. Treatment was altered as needed, with exclusion of culprit drug. Finally data was analyzed by SPSS version 10.0. ATT induced hepatotoxicity was seen in 67 (19.76%) out of 339 patients. Females were more affected as compared to males (26.3% vs. 19.7%). BMI (kg/m2) of 91% of diseased group were less than 18.5 (p<0.01) most of them were anemic having low albumin level suggestive of lean body mass. Hepatotoxicity was more severe in AFB smear positive patients. Concomitant use of alcohol, paracetamol and low serum cholesterol were proved as predisposing factors. Isoniazid (37 patients (55.21%), p<0.01) was the main culprit followed by Rifampicin (23 patients, 34.21%) and Pyrazinamide (7 patients, 10.5%). Most of the patients (61%) developed the hepatotoxicity within two weeks of starting antituberculosis therapy with mild to moderate alteration in ALT and AST. ATT-induced hepatitis is significantly more frequent and more severe in patients with hepatotoxicity risk factors. (author)

  11. Risk factors for recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis is relatively frequent condition, and may have serious health consequences, like chronic vulvovaginal pain syndrome. The aim of our study was to determine possible risk factors for recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis in non-pregnant females within the reproductive age. Methods. The design of our study was of a case-control type. Case and control patients were selected from the gynecological patients at six primary care facilities in Serbia and in Montenegro. The data on the patients' health condition, concomitant therapy and diseases were taken from their records, and the data on habits were obtained by unstructured interview. For potential risk factors crude odds ratios were calculated, and then adjusted by logistic regression. Results. A total of fifty-one patients had four or more episodes of vulvovaginal candidiasis during the last year (cases, and 132 patients with one to three episodes of vulvovaginal candidiasis were sampled as controls, matched by age. The only two significant associations were found between recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis and continual wearing of panty liners during the last year (Odds ratio - ORadjusted: 3.97; confidence interval - CI: 1.57-10.02; p = 0.004, and between recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis and predominant use of vaginal tampons during menstruation in the last year (ORadjusted: 4.25; CI: 1.11-16.27; p = 0.035. The synergistic effect was observed for the concurrent continual wearing of panty liners during the last year and selfmedication with antimycotics. Conclusions. Local factors, like wearing of panty liners or use of tampons during menstruation, may promote recurrence of vulvovaginal candidiasis, especially in patients who practice selfmedication with antimycotics.

  12. Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

    2016-01-01

    Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Development and prospective validation of a model estimating risk of readmission in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Carl R; Hefner, Jennifer; McAlearney, Ann S; Graham, Lisa; Johnson, Kristen; Moffatt-Bruce, Susan; Huerta, Timothy; Pawlik, Timothy M; White, Susan

    2018-02-26

    Hospital readmissions among cancer patients are common. While several models estimating readmission risk exist, models specific for cancer patients are lacking. A logistic regression model estimating risk of unplanned 30-day readmission was developed using inpatient admission data from a 2-year period (n = 18 782) at a tertiary cancer hospital. Readmission risk estimates derived from the model were then calculated prospectively over a 10-month period (n = 8616 admissions) and compared with actual incidence of readmission. There were 2478 (13.2%) unplanned readmissions. Model factors associated with readmission included: emergency department visit within 30 days, >1 admission within 60 days, non-surgical admission, solid malignancy, gastrointestinal cancer, emergency admission, length of stay >5 days, abnormal sodium, hemoglobin, or white blood cell count. The c-statistic for the model was 0.70. During the 10-month prospective evaluation, estimates of readmission from the model were associated with higher actual readmission incidence from 20.7% for the highest risk category to 9.6% for the lowest. An unplanned readmission risk model developed specifically for cancer patients performs well when validated prospectively. The specificity of the model for cancer patients, EMR incorporation, and prospective validation justify use of the model in future studies designed to reduce and prevent readmissions. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Genetic factors affecting dental caries risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opal, S; Garg, S; Jain, J; Walia, I

    2015-03-01

    This article reviews the literature on genetic aspects of dental caries and provides a framework for the rapidly changing disease model of caries. The scope is genetic aspects of various dental factors affecting dental caries. The PubMed database was searched for articles with keywords 'caries', 'genetics', 'taste', 'diet' and 'twins'. This was followed by extensive handsearching using reference lists from relevant articles. The post-genomic era will present many opportunities for improvement in oral health care but will also present a multitude of challenges. We can conclude from the literature that genes have a role to play in dental caries; however, both environmental and genetic factors have been implicated in the aetiology of caries. Additional studies will have to be conducted to replicate the findings in a different population. Identification of genetic risk factors will help screen and identify susceptible patients to better understand the contribution of genes in caries aetiopathogenesis. Information derived from these diverse studies will provide new tools to target individuals and/or populations for a more efficient and effective implementation of newer preventive measures and diagnostic and novel therapeutic approaches in the management of this disease. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

  15. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Tateno, Y.; Nishizawa, Kanae.

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10 -6 . In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10 -6 for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination. (author)

  16. Risk factors for multidrug resistant tuberculosis patients in Amhara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors for multidrug resistant tuberculosis patients in Amhara National ... risk factors of MDR-TB patients in Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia. ... strict adherence to directly observed therapy, appropriate management of TB ...

  17. Association of breakfast intake with cardiometabolic risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gita Shafiee

    2013-11-01

    Conclusions: skipping breakfast is associated with increased risk of MetS and other cardiometabooic factors in children and adolescents. Promoting the benefit of eating breakfast could be a simple and important implication to prevent these risk factors.

  18. Bicycling to school improves the cardiometabolic risk factor profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostergaard, Lars; Børrestad, Line A B; Tarp, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether bicycling to school improves cardiometabolic risk factor profile and cardiorespiratory fitness among children.......To investigate whether bicycling to school improves cardiometabolic risk factor profile and cardiorespiratory fitness among children....

  19. From Risk factors to health resources in medical practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollnagel, Hanne; Malterud, Kirsti

    2000-01-01

    autonomy, communication, empowerment, epidemiology, general practice, healing, health resources, informed consent, preventive medicine, risk factors, salutogenesis......autonomy, communication, empowerment, epidemiology, general practice, healing, health resources, informed consent, preventive medicine, risk factors, salutogenesis...

  20. Prevalence and risk factors for brucellosis in prolonged fever ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ifiable risk factors for the infection in humans in post conflict Northern Uganda. Methods: The .... models. Goodness of fit for the final model was assessed using Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Results .... Quantifying risk factors.

  1. Clinical Symptoms and Risk Factors in Cerebral Microangiopathy Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okroglic, S.; Widmann, C.N.; Urbach, H.; Scheltens, P.; Heneka, M.T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Although the clinical manifestation and risk factors of cerebral microangiopathy (CM) remain unclear, the number of diagnoses is increasing. Hence, patterns of association among lesion topography and severity, clinical symptoms and demographic and disease risk factors were investigated

  2. Risk factors for surgical site infections following clean orthopaedic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk factors for surgical site infections following clean orthopaedic operations. ... the host and environmental risk factors for surgical site infections following clean ... Materials and Methods: Consecutive patients who satisfied the inclusion ...

  3. Bed Rest and Immobilization: Risk Factors for Bone Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Factors for Bone Loss Bed Rest and Immobilization: Risk Factors for Bone Loss Like muscle, bone ... complications of pregnancy; and those who are experiencing immobilization of some part of the body because of ...

  4. Erectile dysfunction: prevalence, risk factors and involvement of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ISSN: 1596-5996 (print); 1596-9827 (electronic) ... Abstract. Purpose: To explore the literature regarding prevalance, risk factors and the involvement of ..... Cigarette smoking and other vascular risk factors in vasculogenic impotence. Urology.

  5. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  6. Risk factor management in a contemporary Australian population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, D J; Coller, J M; Gong, F F; McGrady, M; Prior, D L; Boffa, U; Shiel, L; Liew, D; Wolfe, R; Owen, A J; Krum, H; Reid, C M

    2017-11-14

    Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in health care. We examined risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and HbA1c) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3202 participants. Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/l, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had estimated glomerular filtration rate management of modifiable risk factors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  7. A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

  8. Risk Factors in ERP Implementation Projects for Process Oriented

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Partyka

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper present review and analysis of risk factors, which could affect successful implementation of ERP system, for project performed in project oriented organizations. Presented risk breakdown structure and the list of common risk factors, are well-suited for ERP implementation projects. Considered risk categories allow for complex risk analysis. Additionally, mapping of risk importance for particular implementation phases is presented. Making presented model an important input for project risk management process, especially for the beginning phases which require identification of risk factors.

  9. RISK FACTORS FOR VERY PRETERM DELIVERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталья Витальевна Батырева

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research – assess risk factors for very preterm delivery in the Omsk region. Materials and methods. The main group comprised women with very preterm delivery (n = 64; сomparison group – pregnant women with a threat of interruption in terms of 22-27 weeks and successful preserving therapy (n = 63; control group – pregnant women in whom this pregnancy was taking place without the threat of interruption (n = 62. Results. Risk factors for very preterm delivery were bacterial vaginosis, specific vaginitis, kidney disease and the threat of interruption. There was a significant lead in streptococci (32.3 ± 5.8 %, especially group B (19.0 ± 4.9 % in the main group. The risk factor for very preterm delivery was infectious viral diseases transferred during pregnancy, observed in 12.7 ± 4.2 % of women in the main group, in 7.8 ± 3.3 % in the comparison group (p < 0.01 and in 4.8 ± 2,7 % – control (p < 0,001. In the main group, placental insufficiency was 2 times more common than in the comparison group and 13 times than in the control group. Every sixth pregnant of the main group had manifestations of gestosis. Such complications of gestation as the premature detachment of the normally inserted placenta (7.8 ± 3.3 % and inborn malformations of a fruit (1.6 ± 1.6 % were observed only in the main group. Conclusion. The results of the research and literature data showed that the significant influence on the level of very early premature births is due to: the age of the parents, the abuse of nicotine, alcohol, drugs, abortion, preterm birth, urinary tract and genital tract infections, severe somatic diseases, multiple pregnancies. In the structure of complications of gestation during miscarriages, placental insufficiency predominates, the threat of abortion, fetal growth retardation, and polyhydramnios.

  10. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  11. Daytime Sleepiness and Sleep Inadequacy as Risk Factors for Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeliki Tsapanou

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: To examine the association between self-reported sleep problems and incidence of dementia in community-dwelling elderly people. Methods: 1,041 nondemented participants over 65 years old were examined longitudinally. Sleep problems were estimated using the RAND Medical Outcomes Study Sleep Scale examining sleep disturbance, snoring, sleep short of breath or with a headache, sleep adequacy, and sleep somnolence. Cox regression analysis was used to examine the association between sleep problems and risk for incident dementia. Age, gender, education, ethnicity, APOE-ε4, stroke, heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and depression were included as covariates. Results: Over 3 years of follow-up, 966 (92.8% participants remained nondemented, while 78 (7.2% developed dementia. In unadjusted models, sleep inadequacy (‘Get the amount of sleep you need' at the initial visit was associated with increased risk of incident dementia (HR = 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.42; p = 0.027. Adjusting for all the covariates, increased risk of incident dementia was still associated with sleep inadequacy (HR = 1.20; 95% CI 1.01-1.42; p = 0.040, as well as with increased daytime sleepiness (‘Have trouble staying awake during the day' (HR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.00-1.54; p = 0.047. Conclusion: Our results suggest that sleep inadequacy and increased daytime sleepiness are risk factors for dementia in older adults, independent of demographic and clinical factors.

  12. Risk factors for sudden cardiac death among patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ping-Yi; Hung, Galen Chin-Lun; Jhong, Jia-Rong; Tsai, Shang-Ying; Chen, Chiao-Chicy; Kuo, Chian-Jue

    2015-10-01

    Patients with schizophrenia suffer from excessive premature mortality, and sudden cardiac death (SCD) is receiving growing attention as a potential cause. The present study investigated the incidence of SCD and its risk factors in a large schizophrenia cohort. We enrolled a consecutive series of 8264 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (according to DSM-III-R and DSM-IV criteria) who were admitted to a psychiatric center in northern Taiwan from January 1, 1985 through December 31, 2008. By linking with national mortality database, 64 cases of SCD were identified. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for SCD was estimated. The cases were matched with controls randomly selected using risk-set sampling in a 1:2 ratio. A standardized chart review process was used to collect socio-demographic and clinical characteristics and the prescribed drugs for each study subject. Multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis was used to identify correlates of SCD at the index admission and the latest admission. The SMR for SCD was 4.5. For the clinical profiles at the index admission, physical disease (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]=2.91, Prisk of SCD. Regarding the latest admission, electrocardiographic abnormalities (aRR=5.46, Prisk for SCD. Consistently, aggressive behaviors (aRR=3.26, Prisk as well. Apart from cardiovascular profiles and antipsychotics, physical aggression is a crucial risk factor that deserves ongoing work for clarifying the mechanisms mediating SCD in schizophrenia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. [Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigor'ev, Iu G

    2012-01-01

    The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

  14. Consolidating Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Complications in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prior, Phillip; Devisetty, Kiran; Tarima, Sergey S.; Lawton, Colleen A.F.; Semenenko, Vladimir A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To test the feasibility of a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data using late rectal toxicity in prostate cancer as an example. Methods and Materials: A data survey was performed to identify the published reports on the dose–response relationships for late rectal toxicity. The risk estimates for Grade 1 or greater, Grade 2 or greater, and Grade 3 or greater toxicity were obtained for a test cohort of patients treated at our institution. The influence of the potential factors that might have affected the reported toxicity levels was investigated. The studies that did not conform to the general data trends were excluded, and single, combined risk estimates were derived for each patient and toxicity level. Results: A total of 21 studies of nonoverlapping patient populations were identified. Three studies provided dose–response models for more than one level of toxicity. Of these 21 studies, 6, 14, and 5 were used to derive the initial risk estimates for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. A comparison of risk estimates between the studies reporting rectal bleeding and rectal toxicity (bleeding plus other symptoms) or between studies with follow-up <36 months and ≥36 months did not reveal significant differences (p ≥ .29 for all comparisons). After excluding three reports that did not conform to the general data trends, the combined risk estimates were derived from 5 reports (647 patients), 11 reports (3,369 patients), and 5 reports (1,330 patients) for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed approach is feasible and allows for more systematic use of published dose–response data to estimate the complication risks for the individual patient.

  15. Consolidating Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Complications in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prior, Phillip; Devisetty, Kiran [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Tarima, Sergey S. [Division of Biostatistics, Institute for Health and Society, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Lawton, Colleen A.F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States); Semenenko, Vladimir A., E-mail: vsemenenko@mcw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Purpose: To test the feasibility of a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data using late rectal toxicity in prostate cancer as an example. Methods and Materials: A data survey was performed to identify the published reports on the dose-response relationships for late rectal toxicity. The risk estimates for Grade 1 or greater, Grade 2 or greater, and Grade 3 or greater toxicity were obtained for a test cohort of patients treated at our institution. The influence of the potential factors that might have affected the reported toxicity levels was investigated. The studies that did not conform to the general data trends were excluded, and single, combined risk estimates were derived for each patient and toxicity level. Results: A total of 21 studies of nonoverlapping patient populations were identified. Three studies provided dose-response models for more than one level of toxicity. Of these 21 studies, 6, 14, and 5 were used to derive the initial risk estimates for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. A comparison of risk estimates between the studies reporting rectal bleeding and rectal toxicity (bleeding plus other symptoms) or between studies with follow-up <36 months and {>=}36 months did not reveal significant differences (p {>=} .29 for all comparisons). After excluding three reports that did not conform to the general data trends, the combined risk estimates were derived from 5 reports (647 patients), 11 reports (3,369 patients), and 5 reports (1,330 patients) for Grade 1, 2, and 3 or greater toxicity, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed approach is feasible and allows for more systematic use of published dose-response data to estimate the complication risks for the individual patient.

  16. Clinical presentation and risk factors of osteoradionecrosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chronopoulos, Aristeidis

    2015-03-26

    Introduction: Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the jaws is defined as exposed irradiated bone that fails to heal over a period of 3 months without the evidence of a persisting or recurrent tumor. In the previous decades, numerous factors were associated with the risk of ORN development and severity. Aims: The purposes of this study were to present the data of the patients that were treated for ORN in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery in Munich (LMU), to detect factors that contributed to the onset of ORN, to identify risk factors associated with the severity of ORN and finally, to delineate and correlate these factors with the personal, health and treatment characteristics of the patients. Material and Methods: A retrospective study was conducted during the period from January 2003 until December 2012 that included all ORN cases having been treated in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery in Munich (LMU). The total sample was categorized in three groups according to stage and several variables were evaluated in an attempt to identify possible correlations between them and the necrosis severity. Results: One hundred and fifty three cases of ORN were documented. Among them, 23 (15.1%) cases were stage I, 31 (20.2%) were stage II and 99 (64.7%) were stage III and all localised in the mandible. There was a predominance of the disease in the posterior region when compared to the anterior region. The majority of cases was addicted to alcohol and tobacco abuse and was suffering from Diabetes Mellitus (DM). All cases were treated with RT and 80.4% of them with concomitant chemotherapy. The initial tumor was predominantly located in the floor of the mouth, the tongue and the pharynx. Approximately two thirds of the cases occured either after dental treatment or due to a local pathological condition. Logistic regression analysis identified Diabetes Mellitus (OR: 4.955, 95% Cl: 1.965-12.495), active smoking (OR: 13.542, 95% Cl: 2.085-87.947), excessive

  17. Clinical presentation and risk factors of osteoradionecrosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chronopoulos, Aristeidis

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the jaws is defined as exposed irradiated bone that fails to heal over a period of 3 months without the evidence of a persisting or recurrent tumor. In the previous decades, numerous factors were associated with the risk of ORN development and severity. Aims: The purposes of this study were to present the data of the patients that were treated for ORN in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery in Munich (LMU), to detect factors that contributed to the onset of ORN, to identify risk factors associated with the severity of ORN and finally, to delineate and correlate these factors with the personal, health and treatment characteristics of the patients. Material and Methods: A retrospective study was conducted during the period from January 2003 until December 2012 that included all ORN cases having been treated in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery in Munich (LMU). The total sample was categorized in three groups according to stage and several variables were evaluated in an attempt to identify possible correlations between them and the necrosis severity. Results: One hundred and fifty three cases of ORN were documented. Among them, 23 (15.1%) cases were stage I, 31 (20.2%) were stage II and 99 (64.7%) were stage III and all localised in the mandible. There was a predominance of the disease in the posterior region when compared to the anterior region. The majority of cases was addicted to alcohol and tobacco abuse and was suffering from Diabetes Mellitus (DM). All cases were treated with RT and 80.4% of them with concomitant chemotherapy. The initial tumor was predominantly located in the floor of the mouth, the tongue and the pharynx. Approximately two thirds of the cases occured either after dental treatment or due to a local pathological condition. Logistic regression analysis identified Diabetes Mellitus (OR: 4.955, 95% Cl: 1.965-12.495), active smoking (OR: 13.542, 95% Cl: 2.085-87.947), excessive

  18. The relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and knowledge ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele Burger

    CV risk profile of the group according to the risk score system developed by the ... an individual has about CVD, and the possible risk factors contributing to the .... levels in the lowest tertile of CVD knowledge versus the highest tertile of CVD ..... CV risk factors and health behavior counseling, much can be done to prevent ...

  19. Risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among children in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Bolette; Andersen, Aase Bengaard; Melbye, Mads

    2011-01-01

    To examine the risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTI) among Greenlandic children for the purpose of identifying those at highest risk of infection.......To examine the risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTI) among Greenlandic children for the purpose of identifying those at highest risk of infection....

  20. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables