WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk evaluation system

  1. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  2. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  3. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  4. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  5. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  6. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  7. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  8. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  9. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  10. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  11. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  12. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  13. Comprehensive Evaluation of Altered Systemic Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    09/08/15-08/31/19 0.96 cal. mo. NIH/NCI $168,300 A prospective investigation of the oral microbiome and pancreatic cancer 1.To perform a...and BWHS. 2.To evaluate racial differences in the oral microbiome using 165 AA and 165 EA controls (from the SCCS only), and to identify any racial...risk factors for pancreatic cancer (cigarette smoking, obesity, red meat and processed meat consumption, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes) and oral

  14. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  15. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  16. Risk assessments for energy systems and role of preliminary degree-of-hazard evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habegger, L.J.; Fingleton, D.J.

    1985-11-01

    The appropriate approach to risk or hazard assessment can vary considerably, depending on various factors, including the intended application of the results and the time other resources available to conduct the assessment. This paper illustrates three types of interrelated assessments. Although they can be mutually supportive, they have fundamentally different objectives, which require major differences in approach. The example of the overall risk assessment of alternative major energy technologies illustrates the compilation of a wide range of available risk data applicable to these systems. However, major uncertainties exist in the assessments, and public perception of their importance could play an important role in final system evaluations. A more narrowly defined risk assessment, often focusing on an individual component of a larger system, is the most commonly used approach in regulatory applications. The narrow scope allows in-depth analysis of risks and associated uncertainties, but it may also contribute to a loss of perspective on the magnitude of the assessed risk relative to that of the unassessed risks. In some applications, it is useful to conduct semiquantitative degree-of-hazard evaluations as a means of setting priorities for detailed risk assessment. The MAHAS procedure described in this paper provides a means of rapidly ranking relative hazards from various sources using easily accessible data. However, these rankings should not be used as definitive input for selecting technology alternatives or developing regulations. 25 refs., 6 tabs

  17. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soszynska, Joanna

    2010-01-01

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  18. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soszynska, Joanna, E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.p [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2010-02-15

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  19. Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

    2018-01-01

    To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

  20. EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia MÂRŢU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict clinical and paraclinical examinations, on establishing the inflammation indices and the periodontal diagnosis. Results: The main cause of the analysis was gingival ble‐ eding; an increased number of smokers was registered among the patients. Out of the local factors, especially important were edentations and malocclusions. Also, a higher number of aggressive generalized periodontites has been noticed. Discussion: The forms of the periodontal diseases are obviously influenced by the systemic context, while the forms of localized chronic periodontitis associa‐ ted with generalized chronic gingivitis reflect the role pla‐ yed by the local risk factors. Conclusions: Stress and smoking represent significant risk factors in the installation of periodontal pathology, with a really alarming preva‐ lence. The aggressive forms of periodontitis showed a higher frequency than that recorded in literature.

  1. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  2. [Multicriteria evaluation of environmental risk exposure using a geographic information system in Argentina].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietri, Diana De; Dietrich, Patricia; Mayo, Patricia; Carcagno, Alejandro

    2011-10-01

    Develop a spatial model that includes environmental factors posing a health hazard, for application in the Matanza-Riachuelo River Basin (MRB) in Argentina. Multicriteria evaluation procedures were used with geographic information systems to obtain territorial zoning based on the degree of suitability for residence. Variables that characterize the habitability of housing and potential sources of basin pollution were geographically referenced. Health information was taken from the Risk Factor Survey (RFS) to measure the relative risk of living in unsuitable areas (exposed population) compared with suitable areas (unexposed population). Sixty percent of the MRB area is in suitable condition, a situation that affects 40% of residents. The rest of the population lives in unsuitable territory, and 6% live in the basin's most unsuitable conditions. Environmental conditions that are detrimental to health in the unsuitable areas became evident during the interviews through three of the pathologies considered: diarrheal diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancer. A regional analysis that provides valid information to support decisionmaking was obtained. Considering the basin as a unit of analysis allowed the use of a single protocol to undertake comprehensive measurement of the magnitude of risk and, thus, set priorities.

  3. Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-01

    The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

  4. Extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems for policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotte, E.U.

    1984-01-01

    The social compatibility of future energy scenarios is analysed in order to improve the political decision making. Social compatibility analysis is a form of technology assessment focusing on societal and social issues. The value tree analysis method is applied to collect and structure the values and concerns of important societal groups. Nine relevant groups and organizations in the society of the Federal Republic of Germany are included in the study. A combined value tree is formed by integration of the individual value trees. The overall value tree is transformed into an operational and systematic catalogue of criteria. Measurement instructions and scales are introduced as indicators for the extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems. The assessment of specified future energy options is performed by selected scientific experts. The results can improve the political decision-making process with respect to societal needs and desires. (author)

  5. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  6. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  7. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  8. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  9. Evaluation of severe accident safety system value based on averting financial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatch, S.W.; Benjamin, A.S.; Bennett, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to benchmark the risks from nuclear power plants and to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of severe accident safety features. This paper describes the program in general and presents some preliminary results. These results include estimates of the financial risks associated with the operation of six reference plants and the value of severe accident prevention and mitigation safety systems in averting these risks. The results represent initial calculations and will be iterated before being used to support NRC decisions

  10. Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Fu Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Geographic International System (GIS. Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

  11. Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guo-Fu; Lyu, Hai-Min; Shen, Jack Shuilong; Lu, Lin-Hai; Li, Gang; Arulrajah, Arul

    2017-09-25

    Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic International System (GIS). Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

  12. Microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinneraas, B.; Nordin, A. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Biometry and Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, C. [Swedish Inst. for Infectious Disease Control, Dept. of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, Solna (Sweden)

    2007-12-15

    The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas have raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of biogas upgrading systems were sampled and cultured for microbial content. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas correspond to the densities in sampled natural gas. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e. g. cookers and refueling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (orig.)

  13. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  14. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  16. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  17. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  18. Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems. Volume 2 - Technical

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    1996-01-01

    ... for both structural and nonstructural measures. The unifing theme of these results is that the design and evaluation of structural and nonstructural measures for flood mitigation, including flood warning and preparedness systems, is an integrative...

  19. Results of the application of the Risk Evaluation System in Radiotherapy (RESRA) in radiotherapy facilities in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paz G, A.; Godinez S, V.

    2013-10-01

    The present work describes the main results of the risk evaluation for some radiotherapy treatments with lineal accelerators, cobalt 60, brachytherapy of high dose rate and brachytherapy of low dose rate that are realize in Mexico. These evaluations were carried out applying the risk matrices method with the tool computer risk evaluation system in radiotherapy, accessible for the national users through internet, and developed by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias in Mexico, in cooperation with the Forum of Ibero-American regulators. The used methodology is based on the risk matrices method that is a mathematical tool for the risk evaluation, and it was centered in the evaluation from the risk to which are exposed the patients, the occupational exposed personnel and people in general, by the mechanical faults of the treatment equipment s, bad calibrations, human errors, or any other event initiator of accidents. The events initiators of accidents are defined as those undesirable events that can produce and administration of an excessive dose or a sub-dose of the prescribed dose by the doctor, to the planned objective volume, or undesirable dose to the patient's regions or dose to occupational exposed personnel or people in general. The barriers are the actions and systems as mechanical switches, interlocks or alarms, dedicated to avoid that these accidents take place. The evaluation analysis of the risk developed by the members of the Forum for radiotherapy facilities together with the software RESRA has demonstrated to be useful in the prevention of many possible accidents that have happened in the past in other facilities and can avoid many others in the future. (Author)

  20. Evaluation of nodal reliability risk in a deregulated power system with photovoltaic power penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Qian; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    Owing to the intermittent characteristic of solar radiation, power system reliability may be affected with high photovoltaic (PV) power penetration. To reduce large variation of PV power, additional system balancing reserve would be needed. In deregulated power systems, deployment of reserves...... and customer reliability requirements are correlated with energy and reserve prices. Therefore a new method should be developed to evaluate the impacts of PV power on customer reliability and system reserve deployment in the new environment. In this study, a method based on the pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo...... simulation technique has been proposed to evaluate the reserve deployment and customers' nodal reliability with high PV power penetration. The proposed method can effectively model the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of PV power and system operation with high computation efficiency...

  1. Identification of the microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinneraas, Bjoern [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biometry and Engineering, Box 7032, SE-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, Caroline [Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Department of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, SE-171 82 Solna (Sweden); Nordin, Annika [National Veterinary Institute, Department of Wild Life, Fish and Environment, SE-751 89 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-08-31

    The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas has raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of a biogas upgrading system were sampled and cultured for microbial content. On average, 10{sup 5} cfu ml{sup -1} were found in the condensate water throughout the system, while in the gas between 10 and 100 cfu m{sup -3} were found. The microorganisms were subjected to further identification and found to represent a wide variety, e.g. fungi and spore-forming and non-spore-forming bacteria, including species such as Enterobacteriaceae. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas corresponded to the densities in sampled natural gas, which also held 10-100 cfu m{sup -3}. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e.g. cookers and refuelling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (author)

  2. A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2011-06-01

    Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

  3. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  4. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  5. Neck keloids: evaluation of risk factors and recommendation for keloid staging system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirgan, Michael H

    2016-01-01

    Importance : Health care providers have long struggled with recurrent and hard to treat keloids. Advancing our understanding of natural history and risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids can lead to improved treatment outcomes. Clinical staging system for the categorization of keloid lesions, as well as grouping of keloid patients according to the extent of skin involvement is both fundamental for design and delivery of proper plan of care and an absolute necessity for methodical trial design and interpretation of the results thereof. Objective : To review clinical presentation and natural history of neck keloids; to explore risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids; and to propose a clinical staging system that allows for categorization of keloid lesions by their size and grouping of keloid patients by the extent of their skin involvement.  Setting:  This is a retrospective analysis of 82 consecutive patients with neck keloids who were seen by the author in his keloid specialty medical practice.    Intervention : Non-surgical treatment was offered to all patients.  Results : Neck-area keloids were found to have several unique characteristics. All 65 African Americans in this study had keloidal lesions elsewhere on their skin. Very large and massive neck keloids appear to be race-specific and almost exclusively seen among African Americans. Submandibular and submental skin was the most commonly involved area of the neck. Keloid removal surgery was found to be the main risk factor for development of very large and massive neck keloids.  Conclusions and relevance : Surgical removal of neck keloids results in wounding of the skin and triggering a pathological wound-healing response that often leads to formation of a much larger keloid.  Given the potential for greater harm from surgery, the author proposes non-surgical approach for treatment of all primary neck keloids. Author's attempts to

  6. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  7. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  8. RISICO: A decision support system (DSS) for dynamic wildfire risk evaluation in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Gaetani, Francesco; Negro, Dario

    2010-05-01

    The system RISICO provides Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) with daily wildland fire risk forecast maps relevant to the whole national territory since 2003. RISICO support the activities relating to Italian national forest fires warning system and National fires fighting air fleet. The RISICO system has a complex software architecture based on a framework able to manage geospatial data as well as time dependent information (e.g, Numerical Weather Prediction, real time meteorological observations, and satellite data). Within the system semi-physical models, able to simulate in space and time the variability of the fuel moisture content, are implemented. This parameter represents the main variable related with the ignition of a fire. Based on this information and introducing information on topography and wind field the model provides the rate of spread and the linear intensity of a potential fire generated by accidental or deliberate ignition. The model takes into account the vegetation patterns, in terms of fuel load and flammability. It needs territorial and meteorological data. Territorial data used by the system are vegetation cover and topography. Meteorological data are mainly represented by Numerical Weather Prediction (Limited Area model). Meteorological data provided in real time by a meteorological network are also used by the model as well as satellite data (e.g., vegetation index, snow cover). The output information are provided on a web-gis based system according with the OGC-INSPIRE standard. In 2007 the system has been improved introducing some changes both in the model structure and its functionality. Spatial resolution is increased up to 100m in the implementation at regional level. The fine fuel moisture model has been changed, introducing the FFMC of the CFFDRS with some slightly differences. In addition, a different nominal rate of spread (no-wind on flat terrain) has been introduced for each different class of vegetation. The operational

  9. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  10. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

  11. Presenting a Framework for Evaluating and Prioritizing Risk of Information Technology Outsourcing: Perspective of Experts in Information Systems Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    abbas Keramati

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Information technology outsourcing projects have advantages including: reduced costs, improved service quality, creation of competitive advantage, etc. When these projects are being outsourced, lack of attention to their risks causes the lost of anticipated benefits and contributes to failure. As for the growing trend of information technology outsourcing projects in Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the risks of information technology outsourcing projects, evaluate and prioritize them based on the perspective of experts in information systems design. For achieving these goals, key articles were reviewed and comprehensive list of 12 risk factors were identified. For prioritizing, a Fuzzy Analytical Network Process (F-ANP structure has been provided and the risk factors were laid in it. Then, by using a questionnaire, 13 experts' viewpoints were collected. The results show that the factor of "supplier" and the sub-factor of "Lack of skills of supplier in IT operations" are the most important factors for success and failure of information technology outsourcing projects in the perspective of experts in information systems design.

  12. Performance of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation in Veterans General Hospital Kaohsiung cardiac surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-Hung Shih

    2011-03-01

    Conclusion: EuroSCORE is simple and easy to use. In the present study, the model demonstrated excellent accuracy in all and various surgical subgroups in VGHKS cardiovascular surgery populations. Good calibration ability in all and different risk categories was identified except for isolated CABG group. Recalibration factors of 0.55 and 0.85 were suggested for the various operative subgroups and risk categories.

  13. Development of the Connecticut Airway Risk Evaluation (CARE) system to improve handoff communication in pediatric patients with tracheotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrason Hughes, Amy; Murray, Nicole; Valdez, Tulio A; Kelly, Raeanne; Kavanagh, Katherine

    2014-01-01

    National attention has focused on the importance of handoffs in medicine. Our practice during airway patient handoffs is to communicate a patient-specific emergency plan for airway reestablishment; patients who are not intubatable by standard means are at higher risk for failure. There is currently no standard classification system describing airway risk in tracheotomized patients. To introduce and assess the interrater reliability of a simple airway risk classification system, the Connecticut Airway Risk Evaluation (CARE) system. We created a novel classification system, the CARE system, based on ease of intubation and the need for ventilation: group 1, easily intubatable; group 2, intubatable with special equipment and/or maneuvers; group 3, not intubatable. A "v" was appended to any group number to indicate the need for mechanical ventilation. We performed a retrospective medical chart review of patients aged 0 to 18 years who were undergoing tracheotomy at our tertiary care pediatric hospital between January 2000 and April 2011. INTERVENTIONS Each patient's medical history, including airway disease and means of intubation, was reviewed by 4 raters. Patient airways were separately rated as CARE groups 1, 2, or 3, each group with or without a v appended, as appropriate, based on the available information. After the patients were assigned to an airway group by each of the 4 raters, the interrater reliability was calculated to determine the ease of use of the rating system. We identified complete data for 155 of 169 patients (92%), resulting in a total of 620 ratings. Based on the patient's ease of intubation, raters categorized tracheotomized patients into group 1 (70%, 432 of 620); group 2 (25%, 157 of 620); or group 3 (5%, 29 of 620), each with a v appended if appropriate. The interrater reliability was κ = 0.95. We propose an airway risk classification system for tracheotomized patients, CARE, that has high interrater reliability and is easy to use and

  14. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

    2011-11-01

    Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energy devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.

  15. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Evaluation of Diagnostic Systems: The Selection of Students at Risk of Academic Difficulties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolkowski, Keith; Cummings, Kelli D.

    2015-01-01

    Diagnostic tools can help schools more consistently and fairly match instructional resources to the needs of their students. To ensure the best educational outcome for each child, diagnostic decision-making systems seek to balance time, clarity, and accuracy. However, recent research notes that many educational decisions tend to be made using…

  17. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  18. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  19. Local or systemic treatment for New World cutaneous leishmaniasis? Re-evaluating the evidence for the risk of mucosal leishmaniasis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blum, Johannes; Lockwood, Diana N. J.; Visser, Leo; Harms, Gundel; Bailey, Mark S.; Caumes, Eric; Clerinx, Jan; van Thiel, Pieter P. A. M.; Morizot, Gloria; Hatz, Christoph; Buffet, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    This review addresses the question of whether the risk of developing mucosal leishmaniasis (ML) warrants systemic treatment in all patients with New World cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) or whether local treatment might be an acceptable alternative. The risk of patients with New World CL developing ML

  20. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

  1. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  2. Evaluation Use in Evaluation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højlund, Steven

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the European Union’s evaluation system and its conduciveness to evaluation use. Taking the European Commission’s LIFE programme as its case, the article makes an empirical contribution to an emerging focus in the literature on the importance of organization...... and institutions when analyzing evaluation use. By focusing on the European Union’s evaluation system the article finds that evaluation use mainly takes place in the European Commission and less so in the European Parliament and the European Council. The main explanatory factors enabling evaluation use relate...... to the system’s formalization of evaluation implementation and use; these factors ensure evaluation quality, timeliness and capacity in the Commission. At the same time, however, the system’s formalization also impedes evaluation use, reducing the direct influence of evaluations on policy-making and effectively...

  3. ATWS: a reappraisal, part II, evaluation of societal risks due to reactor protection systems failure. Vol. 3. Pwr risk analysis. Phase report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lellouche, G.S.

    1976-08-01

    This document is the third volume of part 2 in a series of studies which will examine the basis for the problem of Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). The purpose of part 2 is an evaluation of societal risks due to RPS failure based on more current data and methodology than used in WASH-1270. This volume examines and documents the potential contribution to societal risk due to ATWS in the PWR. Volumes 1 and 2 described a similar analysis for the BWR

  4. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  5. Risk evaluation of the alternate-3A modification to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR-4, MARK-II power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Karol, R.; Shiu, K.

    1983-01-01

    The authors present a risk evaluation of the ATWS Alternate 3A modification proposed by NRC staff in NUREG-0460 to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR nuclear power plant. The evaluation is done relative to three risk indices: the frequency of core damage, the expected early fatalities, and the expected latent fatalities. The ATWS prevention tree includes: the mechanical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the electrical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the recirculation pump trip and the Alternate Rod Insertion System. The mitigation tree includes: standby liquid control system, opening of the relief valves, reclosing the relief valves, failure of coolant injection, inadvertent actuation of the automatic depressurization system, inadvertent operation of high-pressure injection system and containment heat removal

  6. Models of evaluating efficiency and risks on integration of cloud-base IT-services of the machine-building enterprise: a system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razumnikov, S.; Kurmanbay, A.

    2016-04-01

    The present paper suggests a system approach to evaluation of the effectiveness and risks resulted from the integration of cloud-based services in a machine-building enterprise. This approach makes it possible to estimate a set of enterprise IT applications and choose the applications to be migrated to the cloud with regard to specific business requirements, a technological strategy and willingness to risk.

  7. Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

  8. Identifying and evaluating high risk areas and challenges on marine drilling riser system in relation to deepwater problems

    OpenAIRE

    Iversen, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    Master's thesis in Offshore technology The main concerns during drilling operations are riser integrity and maintaining well control. This thesis has mainly been focusing on the problems and challenges faced with the marine riser system to illuminate high risk areas related to riser integrity. A marine riser system consists generally of four main elements; the upper marine riser package, riser joints, lower marine riser package, and the blowout preventer, each playing an important par...

  9. Evaluating the Risks of School Dropout amongst Children in the Care of the French Child Protection System: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derivois, Daniel; Guillier-Pasut, Nathalie; Karray, Amira; Cénat, Jude-Mary; Brolles, Lisbeth; Matsuhara, Hanae

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this pilot study is to identify the best way of preventing and assessing the livelihood and risk of school dropout amongst children entrusted to the care of the French child protection system in the Département of Rhone. The sample comprised 91 children and adolescents aged 4- to 17-years-old, of whom 45 were girls. The data were…

  10. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  11. Safety leadership and systems thinking: application and evaluation of a Risk Management Framework in the mining industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Horberry, Tim

    2017-10-01

    Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safety in high-risk industries. This article contends that applying systems-thinking methods to examine safety leadership can support improved learning from incidents. A case study analysis was undertaken of a large-scale mining landslide incident in which no injuries or fatalities were incurred. A multi-method approach was adopted, in which the Critical Decision Method, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework and Accimap method were applied to examine the safety leadership decisions and actions which enabled the safe outcome. The approach enabled Rasmussen's predictions regarding safety and performance to be examined in the safety leadership context, with findings demonstrating the distribution of safety leadership across leader and system levels, and the presence of vertical integration as key to supporting the successful safety outcome. In doing so, the findings also demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to examine and learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. The implications, including future research directions, are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a case study analysis, in which systems-thinking methods are applied to the examination of safety leadership decisions and actions during a large-scale mining landslide incident. The findings establish safety leadership as a systems phenomenon, and furthermore, demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. Implications, including future research directions, are discussed.

  12. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it's subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists

  13. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  14. Field efficacy evaluation and post-treatment contamination risk assessment of an ultraviolet disinfection and safe storage system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reygadas, Fermin; Gruber, Joshua S; Ray, Isha; Nelson, Kara L

    2015-11-15

    Inconsistent use of household water treatment and safe storage (HWTS) systems reduces their potential health benefits. Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection is more convenient than some existing HWTS systems, but it does not provide post-treatment residual disinfectant, which could leave drinking water vulnerable to recontamination. In this paper, using as-treated analyses, we report on the field efficacy of a UV disinfection system at improving household drinking water quality in rural Mexico. We further assess the risk of post-treatment contamination from the UV system, and develop a process-based model to better understand household risk factors for recontamination. This study was part of a larger cluster-randomized stepped wedge trial, and the results complement previously published population-level results of the intervention on diarrheal prevalence and water quality. Based on the presence of Escherichia coli (proportion of households with ≥ 1 E. coli/100 mL), we estimated a risk difference of -28.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): -33.9%, -22.1%) when comparing intervention to control households; -38.6% (CI: -48.9%, -28.2%) when comparing post- and pre-intervention results; and -37.1% (CI: -45.2%, -28.9%) when comparing UV disinfected water to alternatives within the household. We found substantial increases in post-treatment E. coli contamination when comparing samples from the UV system effluent (5.0%) to samples taken from the storage container (21.1%) and drinking glasses (26.0%). We found that improved household infrastructure, additional extractions from the storage container, additional time from when the storage container was filled, and increased experience of the UV system operator were associated with reductions in post-treatment contamination. Our results suggest that the UV system is efficacious at improving household water quality when used as intended. Promoting safe storage habits is essential for an effective UV system dissemination. The drinking

  15. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.; Helton, J.C.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

  16. Information systems for risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michael S. Gibson

    1997-01-01

    Risk management information systems are designed to overcome the problem of aggregating data across diverse trading units. The design of an information system depends on the risk measurement methodology that a firm chooses. Inherent in the design of both a risk management information system and a risk measurement methodology is a tradeoff between the accuracy of the resulting measures of risk and the burden of computing them. Technical progress will make this tradeoff more favorable over time...

  17. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  18. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  19. Neck keloids: evaluation of risk factors and recommendation for keloid staging system [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Tirgan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Importance: Health care providers have long struggled with recurrent and hard to treat keloids. Advancing our understanding of natural history and risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids can lead to improved treatment outcomes. Clinical staging system for the categorization of keloid lesions, as well as grouping of keloid patients according to the extent of skin involvement is both fundamental for design and delivery of proper plan of care and an absolute necessity for methodical trial design and interpretation of the results thereof. Objective: To review clinical presentation and natural history of neck keloids; to explore risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids; and to propose a clinical staging system that allows for categorization of keloid lesions by their size and grouping of keloid patients by the extent of their skin involvement.  Setting: This is a retrospective analysis of 82 consecutive patients with neck keloids who were seen by the author in his keloid specialty medical practice.    Intervention: Non-surgical treatment was offered to all patients.  Results: Neck-area keloids were found to have several unique characteristics. All 65 African Americans in this study had keloidal lesions elsewhere on their skin. Very large and massive neck keloids appear to be race-specific and almost exclusively seen among African Americans. Submandibular and submental skin was the most commonly involved area of the neck. Keloid removal surgery was found to be the main risk factor for development of very large and massive neck keloids.  Conclusions and relevance: Surgical removal of neck keloids results in wounding of the skin and triggering a pathological wound-healing response that often leads to formation of a much larger keloid.  Given the potential for greater harm from surgery, the author proposes non-surgical approach for treatment of all primary neck keloids. Author

  20. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  1. Indoor exposure to particles emitted by biomass-burning heating systems and evaluation of dose and lung cancer risk received by population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stabile, L; Buonanno, G; Avino, P; Frattolillo, A; Guerriero, E

    2018-04-01

    Homes represent a critical microenvironment in terms of air quality due to the proximity to main particle sources and the lack of proper ventilation systems. Biomass-fed heating systems are still extensively used worldwide, then likely emitting a significant amount of particles in indoor environments. Nonetheless, research on biomass emissions are limited to their effects on outdoor air quality then not properly investigating the emission in indoor environments. To this purpose, the present paper aims to evaluate the exposure to different airborne particle metrics (including both sub- and super-micron particles) and attached carcinogenic compounds in dwellings where three different heating systems were used: open fireplaces, closed fireplaces and pellet stoves. Measurements in terms of particle number, lung-deposited surface area, and PM fraction concentrations were measured during the biomass combustion activities, moreover, PM 10 samples were collected and chemically analyzed to obtain mass fractions of carcinogenic compounds attached onto particles. Airborne particle doses received by people exposed in such environments were evaluated as well as their excess lung cancer risk. Most probable surface area extra-doses received by people exposed to open fireplaces on hourly basis (56 mm 2  h -1 ) resulted one order of magnitude larger than those experienced for exposure to closed fireplaces and pellet stoves. Lifetime extra risk of Italian people exposed to the heating systems under investigation were larger than the acceptable lifetime risk (10 -5 ): in particular, the risk due to the open fireplace (8.8 × 10 -3 ) was non-negligible when compared to the overall lung cancer risk of typical Italian population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  3. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  4. Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure of financial companies' contribution to systemic risk, given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we define

  5. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  6. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  7. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  8. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among youth and adults, including— Behaviors that contribute ...

  9. Development and Justification of a Risk Evaluation Matrix To Guide Chemical Testing Necessary To Select and Qualify Plastic Components Used in Production Systems for Pharmaceutical Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenke, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    An accelerating trend in the pharmaceutical industry is the use of plastic components in systems used to produce an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. If the active pharmaceutical ingredient, the finished drug product, or any solution used to generate them (for example, a process stream such as media, buffers, eluents, and the like) is contacted by a plastic component at any time during the production process, substances leached from the component may accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product, affecting its safety and/or efficacy. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that is used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is chemically suitable for its intended use. By considering key properties of the component, the contact medium, the contact conditions, and the active pharmaceutical ingredient's or finished drug product's clinical conditions of use, use of the risk evaluation matrix produces a risk score whose magnitude reflects the accumulated risk that the component will interact with the contact solution to such an extent that component-related extractables will accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product as leachables at levels sufficiently high to adversely affect user safety. The magnitude of the risk score establishes the amount and rigor of the testing that is required to select and qualify the component, and such testing is broadly grouped into three categories: baseline assessment, general testing, and full testing (extractables profiling). Production suites used to generate pharmaceuticals can include plastic components. It is possible that substances in the components could leach into manufacturing solutions and accumulate in the pharmaceutical product. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk

  10. Milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia--an evaluation of parameters on incidence risk, diagnosis, risk factors and biological effects as input for a decision support system for disease control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houe, H; Østergaard, S; Thilsing-Hansen, T

    2001-01-01

    The present review analyses the documentation on incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects of milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia. It is hereby evaluated whether the existing documentation seems sufficient for further modelling in a decision support system for selection of a control...... concerning incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects seems sufficient for a systematic inclusion in a decision support system. A model on milk fever should take into consideration the variation in biological data and individual herd characteristics. The inclusion of subclinical hypocalcaemia would...... of risk factors is outlined. The clinical symptoms of milk fever are highly specific and the disease level may thus be determined from recording of treatments. Diagnosis of subclinical hypocalcaemia needs to include laboratory examinations or it may be determined by multiplying the incidence of milk fever...

  11. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  12. Covariance evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawano, Toshihiko; Shibata, Keiichi.

    1997-09-01

    A covariance evaluation system for the evaluated nuclear data library was established. The parameter estimation method and the least squares method with a spline function are used to generate the covariance data. Uncertainties of nuclear reaction model parameters are estimated from experimental data uncertainties, then the covariance of the evaluated cross sections is calculated by means of error propagation. Computer programs ELIESE-3, EGNASH4, ECIS, and CASTHY are used. Covariances of 238 U reaction cross sections were calculated with this system. (author)

  13. Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

    2007-11-01

    Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

  14. Underground risk management information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuyama, S.; Inoue, M.; Sakai, T.

    2006-03-15

    JCOAL has conducted Joint Research on an Underground Communication and Risk Management Information System with CSIRO of Australia under a commissioned study project for the promotion of coal use starting in fiscal 2002. The goal of this research project is the establishment of a new Safety System focusing on the comprehensive risk management information system by the name of Nexsys. The main components of the system are the Ethernet type underground communication system that represents the data communication base, and the risk management information system that permits risk analysis in real-time and provides decision support based on the collected data. The Nexsys is an open system and is a core element of the underground monitoring system. Using a vast amount of underground data, it is capable of accommodating a wide range of functions that were not available in the past. Because of it, it is possible to construct an advanced underground safety system. 14 figs., 4 tabs.

  15. Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2014-08-15

    Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of alternative strategies to MERV 16-based air filtration systems for reduction of the risk of airborne spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, Scott; Pitkin, Andrea; Deen, John

    2009-07-02

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a re-emerging disease of pigs and a growing threat to the global swine industry. For sustainable disease control it is critical to prevent the airborne spread of the etiologic agent, PRRS virus, between pig populations. The application of MERV 16-based air filtration systems to swine facilities in an effort to reduce this risk has been proposed; however, due to the cost and air flow restrictions of such systems the need for alternative strategies has arisen. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate 3 groups of alternative biosecurity strategies for reducing the risk of the airborne spread of PRRSV. Strategies evaluated included mechanical filters, antimicrobial filters and a disinfectant-EVAP (evaporative cooling) system. Results from this study indicate that while alternatives to MERV 16-based biosecurity protocols for protecting farms from the airborne spread of PRRSV are available, further information on their efficacy in the field is needed before conclusions can be drawn.

  17. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  18. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  19. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  20. Analysis of the perception of risk of radiotherapy services in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro using the risk evaluation system in radiotherapy (SEVRRA / FORUM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgos, Adam de Freitas

    2015-01-01

    In this work it was possible to analyze the perception of risks associated with existing processes in the high-dose rate brachytherapy and teletherapy using linear accelerators of radiotherapy services in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, through the combined use of two proposed methods: FMECA and risk matrix, using a general analysis and other more specific ones. The database software (SEVRRA) was used to identify possible existing processes in radiotherapy services (brachytherapy and teletherapy) and to classify the sequence of events in risk levels. The risk levels were analyzed at each stage and sub-stage, present in the treatment of patients undergoing high dose rate gynecological intracavitary brachytherapy and teletherapy treatments with the use of linear accelerators applying electron or photon beams in order to establish recommendations to the risks of highest priority for each case. The results show that although the procedure of high dose rate brachytherapy be automated and less susceptible to errors or failures, daily, one can still find considerable amounts of processes with worrying levels of risk perception. The processes that are more subject to radiological accident risks was associated with procedures, for of which the majority of the failures record and planning step of the treatment. The controls analyzed showed low efficiency, warning of the need to seek and implement new more efficient controls in routine brachytherapy for each participant service. About teletherapy procedure it was found that most of the failures were related to the registration and planning of treatment and equipment stages. The controls analyzed to teletherapy showed a poor result with a first type of analysis performed by suggesting a new type of more appropriate analysis. With a second type of analysis, these controls could be better analyzed and showed an order of importance according to a percentage of efficiency. Controls such as 'Double-check', &apos

  1. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  2. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  3. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  4. Improved method for P and T strategy selection by long-term risk evaluation of nuclear energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csom, G.; Feher, S.; Szieberth, M.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents a detailed introduction of the presently used indicators of long-term risk, namely various concepts of radiotoxicity, analyses their advantages and disadvantages, and proposes further indicators called residual hazard and residual hazard index. In order to illustrate them, the time behavior of the relative radiotoxicity and the residual hazard index is investigated for a few representative cases. In the first one, conventional thermal and fast reactors, while in the second one molten salt reactors are investigated from the viewpoint of transmutation. The results shown indicate the usefulness of the application of the now proposed quantities. (author)

  5. Retrospective Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy and Risk Factors for Pneumothorax in Simultaneous Localizations of Multiple Pulmonary Nodules Using Hook Wire System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yan; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Pan, Xiang-Long; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Hai; Yuan, Mei; Kong, Ling-Yan; Pu, Xue-Hui; Chen, Liang; Yu, Tong-Fu

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate the safety and efficacy of the hook wire system in the simultaneous localizations for multiple pulmonary nodules (PNs) before video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS), and to clarify the risk factors for pneumothorax associated with the localization procedure. Between January 2010 and February 2016, 67 patients (147 nodules, Group A) underwent simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs using a hook wire system. The demographic, localization procedure-related information and the occurrence rate of pneumothorax were assessed and compared with a control group (349 patients, 349 nodules, Group B). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for pneumothorax during the localization procedure. All the 147 nodules were successfully localized. Four (2.7%) hook wires dislodged before VATS procedure, but all these four lesions were successfully resected according to the insertion route of hook wire. Pathological diagnoses were acquired for all 147 nodules. Compared with Group B, Group A demonstrated significantly longer procedure time (p pneumothorax (p = 0.019). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that position change during localization procedure (OR 2.675, p = 0.021) and the nodules located in the ipsilateral lung (OR 9.404, p pneumothorax. Simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs using a hook wire system before VATS procedure were safe and effective. Compared with localization for single PN, simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs were prone to the occurrence of pneumothorax. Position change during localization procedure and the nodules located in the ipsilateral lung were independent risk factors for pneumothorax.

  6. First step to reducing infection risk as a system: evaluation of infection prevention processes for 71 hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakih, Mohamad G; Heavens, Michelle; Ratcliffe, Carol J; Hendrich, Ann

    2013-11-01

    Hospitals can better focus their efforts to prevent health care-associated infections (HAIs) if they identify specific areas for improvement. We administered a 96-question survey to infection preventionists at 71 Ascension Health hospitals to evaluate opportunities for the prevention of catheter-associated urinary tract infection, central line-associated bloodstream infection, ventilator-associated pneumonia, and surgical site infection. Seventy-one (100%) infection preventionists completed the survey. The majority of hospitals had established policies for urinary catheter placement and maintenance (55/70, 78.6%), central venous catheter maintenance (68/71, 95.8%), and care for the mechanically ventilated patient (62/66, 93.9%). However, there was variation in health care worker practice and evaluation of competencies and outcomes. When addressing device need, 55 of 71 (77.5%) hospitals used a nurse-driven evaluation of urinary catheter need, 26 of 71 (36.6%) had a team evaluation for central venous catheters on transfer out of intensive care, and 53 of 57 (93%) assessed daily ventilator support for continued need. Only 19 of 71 (26.8%) hospitals had annual nursing competencies for urinary catheter placement and maintenance, 29 of 71 (40.8%) for nursing venous catheter maintenance, and 38 of 66 (57.6%) for appropriate health care worker surgical scrubbing. We suggest evaluating infection prevention policies and practices as a first step to improvement efforts. The next steps include implementing spread of evidence-based practices, with focus on competencies and feedback on performance. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

  8. A holistic evaluation of risks in coastal regions under changing climatic, environmental and socioeconomic conditions: the Theseus Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losada, I. J.; Garcia Alonso, E.; Mendez, F. J.; Zanuttigh, B.; Nicholls, R. J.; Thompson, R.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Fernandez, F.; Ondiviela, B.; Diaz-Simal, P.; Bagli, S.

    2012-04-01

    There is a general acceptance that global changes associated with natural hazards and socioeconomic processes are occurring at a faster pace than ever, with deep implications in terms of risk exposure and environmental impact. The capacity of coastal areas to adapt and react to these changes will be a key factor in the future preservation of life standards and represents a great challenge for politicians, scientists and professionals at any level. Within the large scope of Theseus Project (EU 7th Framework Program), one of the main objectives is to design a tool to help decision makers in defining optimal strategies to minimize risks within a certain city or coastal area in a three-fold sense: economic losses, human damages and environmental impacts. The resulting software, the Theseus-DSS, links the most relevant physical processes (waves, sea-levels, hard and soft structures, coastal erosion and inland flooding) with the potential impact zones (marine and inland), considering their functions (ecosystems) and uses (economic units), and the dependence of this functions and uses upon the prevailing physical conditions. The new software tries to fill a gap among the existing tools, based on the following pillars: • Seamless integration of disciplines: physics, engineering, ecology, social sciences and economy. • Intermediate spatial scales (1- 10 km) and medium-to- long time spans (1-10 years). • Decision-making based on a balance between deterministic models and expert, discussion-based assumptions. The user of the Theseus-DSS will be able either to check the consequences of predefined scenarios at a particular study site, or to create user-defined scenarios, run them and compare the results with other scenarios. The results are expressed, locally and at an aggregate level, in the three aforementioned dimensions: economic losses (€/year), mean annual expected live losses (persons/year) and impact on habitats (null, low, medium and high).

  9. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  10. Environmental evaluation of the outdoor radiological risk from a sewage sludge irradiation plant using a consultation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, M.J.; Caporale, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    The consultation system presented will be included in the environmental assessment for a sewage sludge irradiation plant working with 7000.000 Ci of cobalt 60. The system shows over suitable plans the effective dose rate at any point selected by the user or it shows the equal dose zones on a color scheme; in both situations the security recommended upper level of the effective dose is showed. The software, developed in the Borland Delphi 5 visual language, is comprehensible without high nuclear knowledge and perusing it will be easy for the environmental authorities as well as for common people. (author)

  11. A step towards risk-based decision support for ships - Evaluation of limit states using parallel system analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate future ship responses within a time scale of the order of 1–3 h taking into account speed and course changes, assuming stationary sea states. In principle, the calculations depen...

  12. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  14. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  15. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  16. Nuclear data evaluation method and evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tingjin

    1995-01-01

    The evaluation methods and Nuclear Data Evaluation System have been developed in China. A new version of the system has been established on Micro-VAX2 computer, which is supported by IAEA under the technology assistance program. The flow chart of Chinese Nuclear Data Evaluation System is shown out. For last ten years, the main efforts have been put on the double differential cross section, covariance data and evaluated data library validation. The developed evaluation method and Chinese Nuclear Data Evaluation System have been widely used at CNDC and in Chinese Nuclear Data Network for CENDL. (1 tab., 15 figs.)

  17. MODULAR CONSTRUCTION SYSTEM EVALUATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillespie, S.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to respond to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Technical Direction Letter (TDL) 02-003 (Waisley 2001), which directs Bechtel SAIC Company, LLC (BSC) to complete a design study to recommend repository design options to support receipt and/or emplacement of any or all of the following: commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF), high-level radioactive waste (HLW), DOE-managed spent nuclear fuel (DSNF) (including naval spent nuclear fuel [SNF]), and immobilized plutonium (if available), as soon as practicable, but no later than 2010. From the possible design options, a recommended approach will be determined for further evaluation to support the preliminary design of the repository. This study integrates the results of the repository Design Evolution Study (Rowe 2002) with supporting studies concerning national transportation options (BSC 2002b) and Nevada transportation options (Gehner 2002). The repository Design Evolution Study documents the processes used to reevaluate the design, construction, operation, and cost of the repository in response to TDL 02-003 (Waisley 2001), and to determine possible repository conceptual design options. The transportation studies evaluate the national and Nevada transportation options that support the repository conceptual design options. An evaluation methodology was established, based on Program-level requirements developed for the study in reference BSC 2001a, to allow the repository and system design options to be evaluated on a consistent basis. The transportation options and the design components were integrated into system design implementation options, which were evaluated using receipt and emplacement scenarios. The scenarios tested the ability of the design concept to adapt to changes in funding, waste receipt rate, and Nevada rail transportation availability. The results of the evaluation (in terms of system throughput, cost, and schedule) were then compared to the Program-level requirements, and

  18. Economic Evaluation of PCSK9 Inhibitors in Reducing Cardiovascular Risk from Health System and Private Payer Perspectives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Arrieta

    Full Text Available The introduction of Proprotein covertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9 inhibitors has been heralded as a major advancement in reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels by nearly 50%. However, concerns have been raised on the added value to the health care system in terms of their costs and benefits. We assess the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors based on a decision-analytic model with existing clinical evidence. The model compares a lipid-lowering therapy based on statin plus PCSK9 inhibitor treatment with statin treatment only (standard therapy. From health system perspective, incremental cost per quality adjusted life years (QALYs gained are presented. From a private payer perspective, return-on-investment and net present values over patient lifespan are presented. At the current annual cost of $14,000 to $15,000, PCSK9 inhibitors are not cost-effective at an incremental cost of about $350,000 per QALY. Moreover, for every dollar invested in PCSK9 inhibitors, the private payer loses $1.98. Our study suggests that the annual treatment price should be set at $4,250 at a societal willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per QALY. However, we estimate the breakeven price for private payer is only $600 per annual treatment. At current prices, our study suggests that PCSK9 inhibitors do not add value to the U.S. health system and their provision is not profitable for private payers. To be the breakthrough drug in the fight against cardiovascular disease, the current price of PCSK9 inhibitors must be reduced by more than 70%.

  19. Hemodialysis without Systemic Anticoagulation: A Prospective Randomized Trial to Evaluate 3 Strategies in Patients at Risk of Bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guéry, Bruno; Alberti, Corinne; Servais, Aude; Harrami, Elarbi; Bererhi, Lynda; Zins, Brigitte; Touam, Malik; Joly, Dominique

    2014-01-01

    Objective In this clinical trial, we aimed to compare three means of performing chronic hemodialysis in patients with contra-indication to systemic heparinization. Methods This open-label monocentric randomized « n-of-one » trial, conducted in a single tertiary care center, recruited chronic hemodialysis patients with a contra-indication to systemic heparinization for at least 3 consecutive sessions. All patients underwent hemodialysis with an AN69ST dialyzer, and were administered three alternative dialysis procedures in a random sequence: intermittent saline flushes, constant saline infusion, or pre-dialysis heparin coating of the membrane. The primary outcome was the need to interrupt the dialysis session because of clotting events due to either (i) a complete coagulation of the circuit; (ii) a partial coagulation of the circuit; (iii) a>50% rise over baseline in the venous pressure. Results At the end of the inclusion period (May, 2007 to December, 2008), the number of patients to include (n = 75) was not reached: only 46 patients were included and underwent randomization. The study was terminated, and statistical analysis took into account 224 hemodialysis sessions performed in 44 patients with analyzable data. Heparin adsorption was associated with a significant reduction of the need to interrupt the dialysis session because of clotting events: odds ratio 0.3 (CI 95% 0.2 to 0.6; p3 h dialysis sessions and for having complete blood restitution. There were no significant effects of the dialysis procedure on weight loss, online ionic dialysance, and adverse events. Conclusion Heparin-coated AN69ST dialysis membrane is a safe and effective method to avoid or delay per-dialytic clotting events in patients with contra-indication to systemic anticoagulation. However, results are not generalizable safely to patients with active bleeding, since weak heparinemia, not assessed in this study, may occur. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00473109. PMID

  20. Process evaluation distributed system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffatt, Christopher L. (Inventor)

    2006-01-01

    The distributed system includes a database server, an administration module, a process evaluation module, and a data display module. The administration module is in communication with the database server for providing observation criteria information to the database server. The process evaluation module is in communication with the database server for obtaining the observation criteria information from the database server and collecting process data based on the observation criteria information. The process evaluation module utilizes a personal digital assistant (PDA). A data display module in communication with the database server, including a website for viewing collected process data in a desired metrics form, the data display module also for providing desired editing and modification of the collected process data. The connectivity established by the database server to the administration module, the process evaluation module, and the data display module, minimizes the requirement for manual input of the collected process data.

  1. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  2. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  3. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  5. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  6. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  7. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  8. Human Performance Evaluation System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardwick, R.J. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    Operating nuclear power plants requires high standards of performance, extensive training and responsive management. Despite our best efforts inappropriate human actions do occur, but they can be managed. An extensive review of License Event Reports (LERs) was conducted which indicated continual inadequacy in human performance and in evaluation of root causes. Of some 31,000 LERs, about 5,000 or 16% were directly attributable to inappropriate actions. A recent analysis of 87 Significant Event Reports (issued by INPO in 1983) identified inappropriate actions as being the most frequent root cause (44% of the total). A more recent analysis of SERs issued in 1983 and 1984 indicate that 52% of the root causes were attributed to human performance. The Human Performance Evaluation System (HPES) is a comprehensive, coordinated utility/industry system for evaluating and reporting human performance situtations. HPES is a result of the realization that current reporting system provide limited treatment of human performance and rarely provide adequate information about root causes of inappropriate actions by individuals. The HPES was implemented to identify and eliminate root causes of inappropriate actions

  9. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  10. Preliminary Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System: Task 2.1.1: Evaluating Effects of Stressors – Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report: Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-15

    Possible environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term effects. An understanding of risk associated with likely interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help reduce the level of uncertainty and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases - a tidal project in Puget Sound using Open Hydro turbines, a wave project off the coast of Oregon using Ocean Power Technologies point attenuator buoys, and a riverine current project in the Mississippi River using Free Flow turbines. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in all three cases were the effects of the dynamic physical presence of the device (e.g., strike), accidents, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the four highest tiers of risk were dominated by marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) and birds (diving and non-diving); only the riverine case (Free Flow) included different receptors in the third tier (fish) and the fourth tier (benthic invertebrates). Although this screening analysis provides a preliminary analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis, especially of risk associated with chemical toxicity and accidents such as oil spills or lost gear, will be necessary to further understand high-priority risks. Subject matter expert review of this process and results is required and is

  11. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  12. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  13. Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Joseph, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated...

  14. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  15. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  16. Safety significance evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lew, B.S.; Yee, D.; Brewer, W.K.; Quattro, P.J.; Kirby, K.D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG and E), in cooperation with ABZ, Incorporated and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), investigated the use of artificial intelligence-based programming techniques to assist utility personnel in regulatory compliance problems. The result of this investigation is that artificial intelligence-based programming techniques can successfully be applied to this problem. To demonstrate this, a general methodology was developed and several prototype systems based on this methodology were developed. The prototypes address U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) event reportability requirements, technical specification compliance based on plant equipment status, and quality assurance assistance. This collection of prototype modules is named the safety significance evaluation system

  17. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  18. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  19. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  20. Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

    2014-12-01

    A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous

  1. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  2. Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

  3. REXS : A financial risk diagnostic expert system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Richter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Artificial intelligence techniques are rapidly emerging as important contributors to more effective management. One of the greatest growth areas probably lies in the use of Expert System methodology for supporting managerial decision processes.
    Existing Decision Support Systems often attempt to apply analytical techniques in combination with traditional data access and retrieval functions. One of the problems usually encountered while developing such decision support systems is the need to transform an unstructured problem environment into a structured analytical model. Using an expert system approach to strategic decision making in such unstructured problem environments may provide significant advantages.
    The financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS concentrates on Financial Risk Analysis. Based on a Forecasting Model the system will, with the support of several expert system knowledge bases, attempt to evaluate the financial risk of a business and provide guidelines for improvement.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnieke gebaseer op Kunsmatige Intelligensie toon tans die belofte om belangrike bydraes te maak tot meerBestaande Besluitsteunstelsels poog dikwels om analitiese tegnieke en lradisionele datatoegang- en onttrekkingsfunksies te kombineer. Een van die probleme wat gewoonlik ondervind word gedurende die ontwikkeling van '0 besluitsteunstelsel bestaan uit die behoefte om 'n ongestruktueerde probleemomgewing te transformeer na 'n gestruktueerde analitiese model. 'n Ekspertstelselbenadering lot strategiese besluitneming in 'n ongeSlruktureerde probleemomgewing mag betekenisvolle voordele inhou.
    Die "financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS" konsentreer op fmansiele risiko-analise. Uitgaande vanaf 'n Vooruitskattingsmode~ en deur gebruik te maak van verskeie ekspertstelselkennisbasisse, poog die stelsel om die fmansiele risiko van 'n onderneming te evalueer en riglyne vir moontlike verbetering

  4. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.; Zdanski, Laura C.; Gill, Gary A.; Ward, Jeffrey A.

    2011-09-01

    Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases. During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening

  5. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  7. A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

    2017-08-01

    Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

  8. Results of the application of the Risk Evaluation System in Radiotherapy (RESRA) in radiotherapy facilities in Mexico; Resultados de la aplicacion del Sistema de Evaluacion del Riesgo en Radioterapia (SEVRRA) en instalaciones de radioterapia en Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paz G, A.; Godinez S, V., E-mail: abpaz@cnsns.gob.mx [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, Dr. Jose Ma. Barragan No. 779, Col. Narvarte, 03020 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2013-10-15

    The present work describes the main results of the risk evaluation for some radiotherapy treatments with lineal accelerators, cobalt 60, brachytherapy of high dose rate and brachytherapy of low dose rate that are realize in Mexico. These evaluations were carried out applying the risk matrices method with the tool computer risk evaluation system in radiotherapy, accessible for the national users through internet, and developed by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias in Mexico, in cooperation with the Forum of Ibero-American regulators. The used methodology is based on the risk matrices method that is a mathematical tool for the risk evaluation, and it was centered in the evaluation from the risk to which are exposed the patients, the occupational exposed personnel and people in general, by the mechanical faults of the treatment equipment s, bad calibrations, human errors, or any other event initiator of accidents. The events initiators of accidents are defined as those undesirable events that can produce and administration of an excessive dose or a sub-dose of the prescribed dose by the doctor, to the planned objective volume, or undesirable dose to the patient's regions or dose to occupational exposed personnel or people in general. The barriers are the actions and systems as mechanical switches, interlocks or alarms, dedicated to avoid that these accidents take place. The evaluation analysis of the risk developed by the members of the Forum for radiotherapy facilities together with the software RESRA has demonstrated to be useful in the prevention of many possible accidents that have happened in the past in other facilities and can avoid many others in the future. (Author)

  9. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  10. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  11. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  12. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  13. Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

    OpenAIRE

    Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

  14. A Study on Structured Simulation Framework for Design and Evaluation of Human-Machine Interface System -Application for On-line Risk Monitoring for PWR Nuclear Power Plant-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhan, J.; Yang, M.; Li, S.C.; Peng, M.J.; Yan, S.Y.; Zhang, Z.J.

    2006-01-01

    The operators in the main control room of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) need to monitor plant condition through operation panels and understand the system problems by their experiences and skills. It is a very hard work because even a single fault will cause a large number of plant parameters abnormal and operators are required to perform trouble-shooting actions in a short time interval. It will bring potential risks if operators misunderstand the system problems or make a commission error to manipulate an irrelevant switch with their current operation. This study aims at developing an on-line risk monitoring technique based on Multilevel Flow Models (MFM) for monitoring and predicting potential risks in current plant condition by calculating plant reliability. The proposed technique can be also used for navigating operators by estimating the influence of their operations on plant condition before they take an action that will be necessary in plant operation, and therefore, can reduce human errors. This paper describes the risk monitoring technique and illustrates its application by a Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident in a 2-loop Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Marine Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP). (authors)

  15. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  16. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Pervious Pavement System Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porous pavement is a low impact development stormwater control. The Urban Watershed Management Branch is evaluating interlocking concrete pavers as a popular implementation. The pavers themselves are impermeable, but the spaces between the pavers are backfilled with washed, grade...

  18. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  19. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  20. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  1. Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and Holm oak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrés, Juan Manuel de; Borge, Rafael; Paz, David de la; Lumbreras, Julio; Rodríguez, Encarnación

    2012-01-01

    A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and POD Y (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m −2 s −1 ). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods. - Highlights: ► A modelling system to estimate the risk of ozone in the Iberian Peninsula is presented. ► Ozone exposure- and flux-based approaches lead to rather different conclusions. ► Available ozone critical levels were exceeded in most locations where wheat is present. ► Soil moisture content has a significant impact on the flux-based results in some areas. - Flux-based indexes are needed to provide an effective protection of the vegetation in the Iberian Peninsula; currently, available critical levels for wheat are widely exceeded.

  2. Evaluation Systems, Ethics, and Development Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Vinod

    2010-01-01

    After some 65 years of international development assistance, it is still difficult to show the effectiveness of aid in ways that are fully convincing. In part, this reflects inadequacies in the evaluation systems of the bilateral, multilateral, and global organizations that provide official development aid. Underlying these weaknesses often are a…

  3. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  4. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  5. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  6. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  7. Evaluation System for Pesticides (ESPE). 1. Agricultural pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emans HJB; Beek MA; Linders JBHJ

    1992-01-01

    In this report a risk assessment or evaluation system for agricultural pesticides is presented, which estimates the hazards for man and environment resulting from the use of these pesticides. The evaluation system has also been placed within the context of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of

  8. Collaborative Management of Risks and Complexity in Banking Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes types of risks encountered in banking systems and ways to prevent and eliminate them. Banking systems are presented in order to have a view on banking activities and processes that generates risks. The risks in banking processes are analyzed and the collaborative character of risk management is highlighted. A way to control the risk in banking systems through information security is described. Risks arise from system complexity, thus evaluation and comparison of different configurations are bases for improvements. The Halstead relative complexity function synthesizes system complexity from the point of view of the size of the variables analyzed and the heterogeneity between the variables. Section four was realized by Catalin SBORA.

  9. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  10. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  11. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors 6 types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among...

  12. AN ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AN ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR EVALUATING FUNCTIONS OF ECOSYSTEM-BASED SOLUTIONS FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (ECO-DRR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Doko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available “Ecological Infrastructure (EI” are defined as naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as healthy mountain catchments, rivers, wetlands, coastal dunes, and nodes and corridors of natural habitat, which together form a network of interconnected structural elements in the landscape. On the other hand, natural disaster occur at the locations where habitat was reduced due to the changes of land use, in which the land was converted to the settlements and agricultural cropland. Hence, habitat loss and natural disaster are linked closely. Ecological infrastructure is the nature-based equivalent of built or hard infrastructure, and is as important for providing services and underpinning socio-economic development. Hence, ecological infrastructure is expected to contribute to functioning as ecological disaster reduction, which is termed Ecosystem-based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR. Although ecological infrastructure already exists in the landscape, it might be degraded, needs to be maintained and managed, and in some cases restored. Maintenance and restoration of ecological infrastructure is important for security of human lives. Therefore, analytical tool and effective visualization tool in spatially explicit way for the past natural disaster and future prediction of natural disaster in relation to ecological infrastructure is considered helpful. Hence, Web-GIS based Ecological Infrastructure Environmental Information System (EI-EIS has been developed. This paper aims to describe the procedure of development and future application of EI-EIS. The purpose of the EI-EIS is to evaluate functions of Eco-DRR. In order to analyse disaster data, collection of past disaster information, and disaster-prone area is effective. First, a number of digital maps and analogue maps in Japan and Europe were collected. In total, 18,572 maps over 100 years were collected. The Japanese data includes Future

  13. An Attempt to Develop AN Environmental Information System of Ecological Infrastructure for Evaluating Functions of Ecosystem-Based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction Eco-Drr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doko, T.; Chen, W.; Sasaki, K.; Furutani, T.

    2016-06-01

    "Ecological Infrastructure (EI)" are defined as naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as healthy mountain catchments, rivers, wetlands, coastal dunes, and nodes and corridors of natural habitat, which together form a network of interconnected structural elements in the landscape. On the other hand, natural disaster occur at the locations where habitat was reduced due to the changes of land use, in which the land was converted to the settlements and agricultural cropland. Hence, habitat loss and natural disaster are linked closely. Ecological infrastructure is the nature-based equivalent of built or hard infrastructure, and is as important for providing services and underpinning socio-economic development. Hence, ecological infrastructure is expected to contribute to functioning as ecological disaster reduction, which is termed Ecosystem-based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). Although ecological infrastructure already exists in the landscape, it might be degraded, needs to be maintained and managed, and in some cases restored. Maintenance and restoration of ecological infrastructure is important for security of human lives. Therefore, analytical tool and effective visualization tool in spatially explicit way for the past natural disaster and future prediction of natural disaster in relation to ecological infrastructure is considered helpful. Hence, Web-GIS based Ecological Infrastructure Environmental Information System (EI-EIS) has been developed. This paper aims to describe the procedure of development and future application of EI-EIS. The purpose of the EI-EIS is to evaluate functions of Eco-DRR. In order to analyse disaster data, collection of past disaster information, and disaster-prone area is effective. First, a number of digital maps and analogue maps in Japan and Europe were collected. In total, 18,572 maps over 100 years were collected. The Japanese data includes Future-Pop Data Series (1,736 maps

  14. Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, B.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

  15. Liquidity policies and systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina

    2013-01-01

    The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries’ leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies’ implications ...

  16. Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2008-01-01

    Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

  17. MTA Computer Based Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Lisa P.; And Others

    The MTA PLATO-based evaluation system, which has been implemented by a consortium of schools of medical technology, is designed to be general-purpose, modular, data-driven, and interactive, and to accommodate other national and local item banks. The system provides a comprehensive interactive item-banking system in conjunction with online student…

  18. Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

  19. Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    RSKM 2004 COSO Enterprise RSKM Framework 2006 ISO/IEC 16085 Risk Management Process 2008 ISO/IEC 12207 Software Lifecycle Processes 2009 ISO/IEC...1 Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management John Walz VP Technical and Conferences Activities, IEEE Computer Society Vice-Chair Planning...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software

  20. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT IN A LARGE-SCALE NEW RAILWAY TRANSPORT SYSTEM PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunduck D. SUH, Ph.D., P.E.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk management experiences of the Korean Seoul-Pusan high-speed railway (KTX project since the planning stage are evaluated. One can clearly see the interplay of engineering and construction risks, financial risks and political risks in the development of the KTX project, which is the peculiarity of large-scale new railway system projects. A brief description on evaluation methodology and overview of the project is followed by detailed evaluations on key differences in risks between conventional railway system and high-speed railway system, social and political risks, engineering and construction risks, and financial risks. Risks involved in system procurement process, such as proposal solicitation, evaluation, selection, and scope of solicitation are separated out and evaluated in depth. Detailed events resulting from these issues are discussed along with their possible impact on system risk. Lessons learned and further possible refinements are also discussed.

  2. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  3. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  5. Evaluating penetration-monitoring systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markin, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    Evaluating the performance of a process monitoring system in detecting improper activities that could be related to material diversion requires a framework for addressing the complexity and statistical uncertainty of such systems. This report proposes a methodology that determines the optimal divertor strategy against a monitoring system and the system probability of detection. This method extends previous work by correctly modeling uncorrelated and correlated measurement errors for radiation monitors

  6. USAF Weapon System Evaluation Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1999-01-01

    During this task period, Schafer Corporation provided engineering services and analysis to the USAF at Eglin AFB, Florida in direct support of the USAF Air-to-Surface Weapon System Evaluation Program (WSEP...

  7. Evaluating safety management system implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preuss, M.

    2009-01-01

    Canada is committed to not only maintaining, but also improving upon our record of having one of the safest aviation systems in the world. The development, implementation and maintenance of safety management systems is a significant step towards improving safety performance. Canada is considered a world leader in this area and we are fully engaged in implementation. By integrating risk management systems and business practices, the aviation industry stands to gain better safety performance with less regulatory intervention. These are important steps towards improving safety and enhancing the public's confidence in the safety of Canada's aviation system. (author)

  8. Evaluating the effect of the new incentive system for high-risk pressure ulcer patients on wound healing and cost-effectiveness: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanada, Hiromi; Nakagami, Gojiro; Mizokami, Yuko; Minami, Yukiko; Yamamoto, Aya; Oe, Makoto; Kaitani, Toshiko; Iizaka, Shinji

    2010-03-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new incentive system for pressure ulcer management, which focused on skilled nurse staffing in terms of rate of healing and medical costs. A prospective cohort study included two types of groups: 39 institutions, which introduced the new incentive system, and 20 non-introduced groups (control). Sixty-seven patients suffering from severe pressure ulcers in the introduced group and 38 patients in the non-introduced group were included. Wound healing and medical costs were monitored weekly for three weeks by their skilled nurses in charge. Healing status and related medical costs. The introduced group showed significantly higher rate of healing compared with the control group at each weekly assessment. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the introduction of the new incentive system was independently associated with the faster healing rate (beta=3.44, Pcost of treating severe pressure ulcers by 1.776 billion yen per year. The new incentive system for the management of pressure ulcers, which focused on staffing with skilled nurses can improve healing rate with reduced medical cost. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  10. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  11. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Control Evaluation Information System Savings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eddy Sutedjo

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to evaluate the control of information system savings in the banking and to identify the weaknesses and problem happened in those saving systems. Research method used are book studies by collecting data and information needed and field studies by interview, observation, questioner, and checklist using COBIT method as a standard to assess the information system control of the company. The expected result about the evaluation result that show in the problem happened and recommendation given as the evaluation report and to give a view about the control done by the company. Conclusion took from this research that this banking company has met standards although some weaknesses still exists in the system.Index Terms - Control Information System, Savings

  13. Evaluation of EIT system performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasin, Mamatjan; Böhm, Stephan; Gaggero, Pascal O; Adler, Andy

    2011-07-01

    An electrical impedance tomography (EIT) system images internal conductivity from surface electrical stimulation and measurement. Such systems necessarily comprise multiple design choices from cables and hardware design to calibration and image reconstruction. In order to compare EIT systems and study the consequences of changes in system performance, this paper describes a systematic approach to evaluate the performance of the EIT systems. The system to be tested is connected to a saline phantom in which calibrated contrasting test objects are systematically positioned using a position controller. A set of evaluation parameters are proposed which characterize (i) data and image noise, (ii) data accuracy, (iii) detectability of single contrasts and distinguishability of multiple contrasts, and (iv) accuracy of reconstructed image (amplitude, resolution, position and ringing). Using this approach, we evaluate three different EIT systems and illustrate the use of these tools to evaluate and compare performance. In order to facilitate the use of this approach, all details of the phantom, test objects and position controller design are made publicly available including the source code of the evaluation and reporting software.

  14. Evaluation of a Computer-Based Recruitment System for Enrolling Men Who Have Sex With Men Into an Observational HIV Behavioral Risk Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosropour, Christine M; Dombrowksi, Julia C; Hughes, James P; Manhart, Lisa E; Golden, Matthew R

    2016-09-15

    Enrolling large numbers of high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) into human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention studies is necessary for research with an HIV outcome, but the resources required for in-person recruitment can be prohibitive. New methods with which to efficiently recruit large samples of MSM are needed. At a sexually transmitted disease clinic in Seattle, Washington, in 2013-2014, we used an existing clinical computer-assisted self-interview that collects patients' medical and sexual history data to recruit, screen, and enroll MSM into an HIV behavioral risk study and compared enrollees with men who declined to enroll. After completing the clinical computer-assisted self-interview, men aged ≥18 years who reported having had sex with men in the prior year were presented with an electronic study description and consent statement. We enrolled men at 2,661 (54%) of 4,944 visits, including 1,748 unique individuals. Enrolled men were younger (mean age = 34 years vs. 37 years; P partners (11 vs. 8; P use (15% vs. 8%; P < 0.001) than men who declined to enroll, but the HIV test positivity of the two groups was similar (1.9% vs. 2.0%; P = 0.80). Adapting an existing computerized clinic intake system, we recruited a large sample of MSM who may be an ideal population for an HIV prevention study. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  16. A catalog of information systems outsourcing risks

    OpenAIRE

    Soares, Filipe de Sá; Soares, Delfina de Sá; Arnaud, José

    2014-01-01

    Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems o...

  17. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  18. Risk concepts and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are introduced and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the societal acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported [fr

  19. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  20. To Evaluate and Compare Periodontal Disease and Smoking as a Parallel Risk Factor for Systemic Health by Gauging the Serum C-Reactive Protein Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raval, Ruchi Dinesh; Sharma, Payal; Chandran, Sarath; Vasavada, Dharmesh; Nadig, Priyadarshini; Bakutra, Gaurav

    2017-03-01

    Physiologic and metabolic changes that occur immediately after a damage or disease are known as Acute Phase Reaction (APR). Acute Phase Proteins (APP) are blood proteins secreted by hepatocytes during APR C-Reactive Protein (CRP) being the important one. Present study was designed to estimate and compare the levels of the serum CRP in current smokers, former smokers and non-smokers, with and without periodontitis. An experimental study was planned on 165 subjects who were divided into four groups. Group 1- nonsmokers with periodontitis. Group 2- smokers without periodontitis. Group 3- smokers with periodontitis. Group 4- former smokers without periodontitis. Healthy controls were not included in the study as the normal range of CRP in health is already established. Periodontal examination was done and serum CRP was measured. After getting the acceptance to be a part of the study, written informed consent was taken from each participant. Data analysis was done by ANOVA and post-hoc tests. Highest level of CRP was found in smokers with periodontitis followed by non-smokers with periodontitis and smokers without periodontitis. Former smokers had minimum CRP compared to the other groups (p-value=0.03). Periodontitis alone and in combination with smoking increases the systemic inflammatory burden and associated cardiovascular risk. This fact should be communicated thoroughly to the general population, general dentist, physicians and cardiovascular specialist to enhance early screening and multidisciplinary treatment.

  1. "System evaluates system": method for evaluating the efficiency of IS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dita Blazkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In paper I deal with the possible solution of evaluating the efficiency of information systems in companies. The large number of existing methods used to address the efficiency of information systems is dependent on the subjective responses of the user that may distort output evaluation. Therefore, I propose a method that eliminates the subjective opinion of a user as the primary data source. Applications, which I suggests as part of the method, collects relevant data. In this paper I describe the application in detail. This is a follow-on program on any system that runs parallel with it. The program automatically collects data for evaluation. Data include mainly time data, positions the mouse cursor, printScreens, i-grams of previous, etc. I propose a method of evaluation of the data, which identifies the degree of the friendliness of the information system to the user. Thus, the output of the method is the conclusion whether users, who work with the information system, can handle effectively work with it.

  2. Cancer risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Labrecque, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS: Across 30 c...

  3. Endogenous network of firms and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qianting; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

    2018-02-01

    We construct an endogenous network characterized by commercial credit relationships connecting the upstream and downstream firms. Simulation results indicate that the endogenous network model displays a scale-free property which exists in real-world firm systems. In terms of the network structure, with the expansion of the scale of network nodes, the systemic risk increases significantly, while the heterogeneities of network nodes have no effect on systemic risk. As for firm micro-behaviors, including the selection range of trading partners, actual output, labor requirement, price of intermediate products and employee salaries, increase of all these parameters will lead to higher systemic risk.

  4. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  5. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  6. Integrated system for seismic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, J.; Philippacopoulos, A.J.; Miller, C.A.; Costantino, C.J.; Graves, H.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the various features of the seismic module of the CARES system (computer analysis for rapid evaluation of structures). This system was developed to perform rapid evaluations of structural behavior and capability of nuclear power plant facilities. The CARES is structural in a modular format. Each module performs a specific type of analysis i.e., static or dynamic, linear or nonlinear, etc. This paper describes the features of the seismic module in particular. The development of the seismic modules of the CARES system is based on an approach which incorporates major aspects of seismic analysis currently employed by the industry into an integrated system that allows for carrying out interactively computations of structural response to seismic motions. The code operates on a PC computer system and has multi-graphics capabilities

  7. Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

  8. The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif ZIMAN

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

  9. Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qiubin; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China. Although these measures show different patterns, our

  10. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  11. A catalog of information systems outsourcing risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Sá-Soares

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems outsourcing risks. This study aims to contribute towards the synthesis of that theory, by proposing a conceptual framework for interpreting the literature and presenting a catalog of information systems outsourcing risks. The conceptual framework articulates together six key risk elements, namely dangers, negative outcomes, undesirable consequences, factors and mitigation actions. The catalog condenses and categorizes the information systems outsourcing risk elements found on the literature reviewed, both from the perspective of the outsourcing customer and from the perspective of the outsourcing provider. Proposals for subsequent work towards the generation of the theory of information systems outsourcing risk are suggested.

  12. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  13. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  14. Risks of disaster in the energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoferson, L.; Kjellstroem, B.; Svenningsson, P.J.

    1986-10-01

    The perception of environmental effects and risks is discussed concerning the difficulties to making objective comparisons between different energy sources. Risks may influence the choice of strategies of the replacement of nuclear electric power in the Swedish energy system. Risks for major accidents and disasters to occur at a small level of probability are presented concerning the existing or future energy sources. The choice of strategies is discussed by means of calculated examples

  15. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  16. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  17. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  18. Exploring Nonlinearities in Financial Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolski, M.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new methodology of assessing the effects of individual institution's risk on the others and on the system as a whole. We build upon the Conditional Value-at-Risk approach, however, we introduce the explicit Granger causal linkages and we account for possible nonlinearities in the

  19. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  20. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  1. Reliability evaluation of power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Billinton, Roy

    1996-01-01

    The Second Edition of this well-received textbook presents over a decade of new research in power system reliability-while maintaining the general concept, structure, and style of the original volume. This edition features new chapters on the growing areas of Monte Carlo simulation and reliability economics. In addition, chapters cover the latest developments in techniques and their application to real problems. The text also explores the progress occurring in the structure, planning, and operation of real power systems due to changing ownership, regulation, and access. This work serves as a companion volume to Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Second Edition (1992).

  2. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  3. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  4. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  5. Mobility Models for Systems Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musolesi, Mirco; Mascolo, Cecilia

    Mobility models are used to simulate and evaluate the performance of mobile wireless systems and the algorithms and protocols at the basis of them. The definition of realistic mobility models is one of the most critical and, at the same time, difficult aspects of the simulation of applications and systems designed for mobile environments. There are essentially two possible types of mobility patterns that can be used to evaluate mobile network protocols and algorithms by means of simulations: traces and synthetic models [130]. Traces are obtained by means of measurements of deployed systems and usually consist of logs of connectivity or location information, whereas synthetic models are mathematical models, such as sets of equations, which try to capture the movement of the devices.

  6. Computed radiography systems performance evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xavier, Clarice C.; Nersissian, Denise Y.; Furquim, Tania A.C.

    2009-01-01

    The performance of a computed radiography system was evaluated, according to the AAPM Report No. 93. Evaluation tests proposed by the publication were performed, and the following nonconformities were found: imaging p/ate (lP) dark noise, which compromises the clinical image acquired using the IP; exposure indicator uncalibrated, which can cause underexposure to the IP; nonlinearity of the system response, which causes overexposure; resolution limit under the declared by the manufacturer and erasure thoroughness uncalibrated, impairing structures visualization; Moire pattern visualized at the grid response, and IP Throughput over the specified by the manufacturer. These non-conformities indicate that digital imaging systems' lack of calibration can cause an increase in dose in order that image prob/ems can be so/ved. (author)

  7. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  8. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  9. A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model a...

  10. Short-Selling, Leverage and Systemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Pais, Amelia; Stork, Philip A.

    2013-01-01

    During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that “bear raids”, driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with high leverage. This study uses Extreme Value Theory to estimate the effect of short-selling on financial institutions’ individual and systemic risks in France, Italy and Spain; it also analyses the rela...

  11. Context-sensitive Information security Risk identification and evaluation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The objective of my research is to improve and support the process of Information security Risk Assessment by designing a scalable Risk argumentation framework for socio-digital-technical Risk. Due to the various types of IT systems, diversity of architectures and dynamic nature of Risk, there is no

  12. Objectives and present status of the German risk evaluation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.; Heuser, F.W.

    1977-01-01

    For the German risk evaluation study, analogous to the Rasmussen report (WASH--1400), embarked upon in June 1976, the Kernkraftwerk Biblis B serves as the plant of reference. The first interim results are available for various sub-headings of the study. The main finding seems to be the decisive importance of the containment in limiting the accident consequences even in those cases where, on account of postulated failure of safety systems, the melt down of the reactor core is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de

  13. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  14. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  15. THRMS: A pilot risk management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue, D.; Xu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    Daya Bay NPP is the first commercial nuclear power plant in China. This plant is interested in and pro-active towards the development and application of PSA and PSA tools. This, together with the support from the IAEA promoted the project 'THRMS: the pilot study of risk management system for NPP'. The objectives in development and implementation of THRMS includes: survey and discuss on the development of the approaches used in constructing plant risk models; design and study on the realization of a real-time risk management system. An overview of the project is presented in this paper. (author)

  16. Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    WSTAT). In the early stages of the V&V for development risk, it was discovered that the original risk rating and methodology did not actually...4932 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT ...WSTA has opened trade space exploration by allowing the tool to evaluate trillions of potential system configurations to then return a handful of

  17. The Evaluation of Computer Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cezar Octavian Mihalcescu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Generally, the evaluation of the computersystems is especially interesting at present from severalpoints of view: computer-related, managerial,sociological etc. The reasons for this extended interest arerepresented by the fact that IT becomes increasinglyimportant for reaching the goals of an organization, ingeneral, and the strategic ones in particular. Evaluationmeans the estimation or determination of value, and issynonymous with measuring the value. Evaluating theeconomic value of Computer Systems should be studiedat three levels: individually, at a group level and at anorganization level.

  18. Plant operator performance evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujita, Hiroshi; Fukuda, Mitsuko; Kubota, Ryuji.

    1989-01-01

    A plant operator performance evaluation system to analyze plant operation records during accident training and to identify and classify operator errors has been developed for the purpose of supporting realization of a training and education system for plant operators. A knowledge engineering technique was applied to evaluation of operator behavior by both even-based and symptom-based procedures, in various situations including event transition due to multiple failures or operational errors. The system classifies the identified errors as to their single and double types based on Swain's error classification and the error levels reflecting Rasmussen's cognitive level, and it also evaluates the effect of errors on plant state and then classifies error influence, using 'knowledge for phenomena and operations', as represented by frames. It has additional functions for analysis of error statistics and knowledge acquisition support of 'knowledge for operations'. The system was applied to a training analysis for a scram event in a BWR plant, and its error analysis function was confirmed to be effective by operational experts. (author)

  19. Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

    1996-01-01

    Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

  20. Risk evaluation in Columbian electricity market using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina, S.; Moreno, J.

    2007-01-01

    This article proposes a model based on Fuzzy Logic to evaluate the market risk that a trading agent faces in the electric power negotiation in Colombia, as part of a general model of negotiation. The proposed model considers single external factors as regulatory changes, social and political issues, and the condition of the national transmission net. Variables of the market associated to these risk factors were selected and some graphic and statistical analyses were made in order to check their relationship with the electricity prices and to determine why the experts consider these factors in their analyses. According to the obtained results a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System which contains the expert knowledge was developed and it is presented in a fuzzy cognitive map. (author)

  1. Control of System with Defined Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavol Tomasov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

  2. Systemic trade risk of critical resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter; Obersteiner, Michael; Thurner, Stefan

    2015-11-01

    In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent, region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by-products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union.

  3. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  4. RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

  5. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  6. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  7. High Pressure Electrolyzer System Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokopius, Kevin; Coloza, Anthony

    2010-01-01

    This report documents the continuing efforts to evaluate the operational state of a high pressure PEM based electrolyzer located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This electrolyzer is a prototype system built by General Electric and refurbished by Hamilton Standard (now named Hamilton Sunstrand). It is capable of producing hydrogen and oxygen at an output pressure of 3000 psi. The electrolyzer has been in storage for a number of years. Evaluation and testing was performed to determine the state of the electrolyzer and provide an estimate of the cost for refurbishment. Pressure testing was performed using nitrogen gas through the oxygen ports to ascertain the status of the internal membranes and seals. It was determined that the integrity of the electrolyzer stack was good as there were no appreciable leaks in the membranes or seals within the stack. In addition to the integrity testing, an itemized list and part cost estimate was produced for the components of the electrolyzer system. An evaluation of the system s present state and an estimate of the cost to bring it back to operational status was also produced.

  8. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  9. Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

    2013-06-01

    The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  10. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  11. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  12. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  13. Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelo, P. L.

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  15. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  16. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  17. Plant risk status information management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, D.J.; Ellison, B.C.; Glynn, J.C.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1985-01-01

    The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIMS) is a PC program that presents information about a nuclear power plant's design, its operation, its technical specifications, and the results of the plant's probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in a logically and easily accessible format. PRISIMS provides its user with unique information for integrating safety concerns into day-to-day operational decisions and/or long-range management planning

  18. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  19. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  20. System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John C.; Sigal, Burton C.; Gindorf, Tom

    2000-01-01

    The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.

  1. Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay

    2017-12-20

    Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of

  2. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

  3. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

    2017-09-01

    To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

  4. A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

  5. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  6. System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Adam David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mohagheghi, Amir H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cohn, Brian [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Osborn, Douglas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Katherine A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); DeMenno, Mercy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Maikael A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Ethan Rutledge [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Mancel Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeantete, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

  7. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  8. Management information systems software evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Tunisi, N.; Ghazzawi, A.; Gruyaert, F.; Clarke, D. [Saudi Aramco, Dhahran (Saudi Arabia). Process and Control Systems Dept.

    1995-11-01

    In November 1993, Saudi Aramco management endorsed a proposal to coordinate the development of the Management Information Systems (MISs) of four concurrent projects for its facilities Controls Modernization Program. The affected projects were the Ras Tanura Refinery Upgrade Project, the Abqaiq Plant Controls Modernization and the Shedgum and Uthmaniyah Gas plants Control Upgrade Projects. All of these projects had a significant requirement of MISs in their scope. Under the leadership of the Process and Control Systems Department, and MIS Coordination Team was formed with representatives of several departments. An MIS Applications Evaluation procedure was developed based on the Kepner Tregoe Decisions Analysis Process and general questionnaires were sent to over a hundred potential Vendors. The applications were divided into several categories, such as: Data Capture and Historization, Human User Interface, Trending, Reporting, Graphic Displays, Data Reconciliation, Statistical Analysis, Expert Systems, Maintenance Applications, Document Management and Operations Planning and Scheduling. For each of the MIS Application areas, detailed follow-up questionnaires were used to short list the candidate products. In May and June 1994, selected Vendors were invited to Saudi Arabia for an Exhibition which was open to all Saudi Aramco employees. In conjunction with this, the Vendors were subjected to a rigorous product testing exercise by independent teams of testers. The paper will describe the methods used and the lessons learned in this extensive software evaluation phase, which was a first for Saudi Aramco.

  9. Management information systems software evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Tunisi, N.; Ghazzawi, A.; Gruyaert, F.; Clarke, D.

    1995-01-01

    In November 1993, Saudi Aramco management endorsed a proposal to coordinate the development of the Management Information Systems (MISs) of four concurrent projects for its facilities Controls Modernization Program. The affected projects were the Ras Tanura Refinery Upgrade Project, the Abqaiq Plant Controls Modernization and the Shedgum and Uthmaniyah Gas plants Control Upgrade Projects. All of these projects had a significant requirement of MISs in their scope. Under the leadership of the Process and Control Systems Department, and MIS Coordination Team was formed with representatives of several departments. An MIS Applications Evaluation procedure was developed based on the Kepner Tregoe Decisions Analysis Process and general questionnaires were sent to over a hundred potential Vendors. The applications were divided into several categories, such as: Data Capture and Historization, Human User Interface, Trending, Reporting, Graphic Displays, Data Reconciliation, Statistical Analysis, Expert Systems, Maintenance Applications, Document Management and Operations Planning and Scheduling. For each of the MIS Application areas, detailed follow-up questionnaires were used to short list the candidate products. In May and June 1994, selected Vendors were invited to Saudi Arabia for an Exhibition which was open to all Saudi Aramco employees. In conjunction with this, the Vendors were subjected to a rigorous product testing exercise by independent teams of testers. The paper will describe the methods used and the lessons learned in this extensive software evaluation phase, which was a first for Saudi Aramco

  10. Integrated system for seismic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, J.; Philippacopoulos, A.J.; Miller, C.A.; Costantino, C.J.; Graves, H.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the various features of the Seismic Module of the CARES system (Computer Analysis for Rapid Evaluation of Structures). This system was developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform rapid evaluations of structural behavior and capability of nuclear power plant facilities. The CARES is structured in a modular format. Each module performs a specific type of analysis i.e., static or dynamic, linear or nonlinear, etc. This paper describes the features of the Seismic Module in particular. The development of the Seismic Module of the CARES system is based on an approach which incorporates all major aspects of seismic analysis currently employed by the industry into an integrated system that allows for carrying out interactively computations of structural response to seismic motions. The code operates on a PC computer system and has multi-graphics capabilities. It has been designed with user friendly features and it allows for interactive manipulation of various analysis phases during the seismic design process. The capabilities of the seismic module include (a) generation of artificial time histories compatible with given design ground response spectra, (b) development of Power Spectral Density (PSD) functions associated with the seismic input, (c) deconvolution analysis using vertically propagating shear waves through a given soil profile, and (d) development of in-structure response spectra or corresponding PSD's. It should be pointed out that these types of analyses can also be performed individually by using available computer codes such as FLUSH, SAP, etc. The uniqueness of the CARES, however, lies on its ability to perform all required phases of the seismic analysis in an integrated manner. 5 refs., 6 figs

  11. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  12. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  13. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  14. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  15. Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

    2018-03-01

    Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

  16. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  17. Evaluation of the COGITO system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, V.; Andersen, H.H.K.

    2002-01-01

    -site and for benefiting efficiently from the functionality of the site. In order to make the report a stand-alone report, it contains an introduction including 'Study of end-user needs and behaviour' exposing problemsconcerning e-commerce in general (taken from the D6.1), and a brief review of the objectives......This report covers the deliverable D7.2 of the COGITO project. It presents the evaluation of an 'intelligent' agent integrated into an e-commerce system. The aim of the agent is to support the user partly through direct communication and partly by guidinghim/her for navigating the web...

  18. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  19. Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Bareikaitė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

  20. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  1. Efficiency Evaluation of Energy Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kanoğlu, Mehmet; Dinçer, İbrahim

    2012-01-01

    Efficiency is one of the most frequently used terms in thermodynamics, and it indicates how well an energy conversion or process is accomplished. Efficiency is also one of the most frequently misused terms in thermodynamics and is often a source of misunderstanding. This is because efficiency is often used without being properly defined first. This book intends to provide a comprehensive evaluation of various efficiencies used for energy transfer and conversion systems including steady-flow energy devices (turbines, compressors, pumps, nozzles, heat exchangers, etc.), various power plants, cogeneration plants, and refrigeration systems. The book will cover first-law (energy based) and second-law (exergy based) efficiencies and provide a comprehensive understanding of their implications. It will help minimize the widespread misuse of efficiencies among students and researchers in energy field by using an intuitive and unified approach for defining efficiencies. The book will be particularly useful for a clear ...

  2. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  3. Systems considerations in seismic margin evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buttermer, D.R.

    1987-01-01

    Increasing knowledge in the geoscience field has led to the understanding that, although highly unlikely, it is possible for a nuclear power plant to be subjected to earthquake ground motion greater than that for which the plant was designed. While it is recognized that there are conservatisms inherent in current design practices, interest has developed in evaluating the seismic risk of operating plants. Several plant-specific seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) have been completed to address questions related to the seismic risk of a plant. The results from such SPRAs are quite informative, but such studies may entail a considerable amount of expensive analysis of large portions of the plant. As an alternative to an SPRA, it may be more practical to select an earthquake level above the design basis for which plant survivability is to be demonstrated. The principal question to be addressed in a seismic margin evaluation is: At what ground motion levels does one have a high confidence that the probability of seismically induced core damage is sufficiently low? In a seismic margin evaluation, an earthquake level is selected (based on site-specific geoscience considerations) for which a stable, long-term safe shutdown condition is to be demonstrated. This prespecified earthquake level is commonly referred to as the seismic margin earthquake (SME). The Electric Power Research Institute is currently supporting a research project to develop procedures for use by the utilities to allow them to perform nuclear plant seismic margin evaluations. This paper describes the systems-related aspects of these procedures

  4. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    The paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper-boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-fuel-based energy technologies in the United States of America. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO 4 , NO 2 , and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analysed. (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) 'Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants. (4) Health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7x10 -9 average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5x10 -4 for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be unrealistic. As a final example of risk analysis, the cost-effectiveness analysis for proposed EPA standards for radionuclides is shown to be deficient by an analysis concluding that the cost per potential cancer avoided could range from US $70 million to US $140 billion

  5. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  6. Implementation of a computational system at the Center for Nuclear Technology Development, for systematization the application of the FMEA - Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, for identification of dangerous and developed risks evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa, Danyel Pontelo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de

    2009-01-01

    The regulatory bodies request risks evaluations for nuclear and radioactive licensing purposes. In Brazil those evaluations are contained by the safety analysis reports requested by the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN), and risk analysis studies requested by the environment organisms. A risk evaluation includes the identification of the risks and the accident sequence which can occur, and the estimation of the frequency and his undesirable effects on the industrial installations, the public, and the environment. The identification and the risk analysis are particularly important for the implementation of a health, environment and safety integrated management according to the regulation instruments ISO 14001, BS 8800 and OHSAS 18001. The utilization of the risk identification techniques and the risk analysis is performed at the non nuclear industry, in a non standard form by the various sectors of an enterprise, diminishing the effectiveness of the recommended actions based on risk indexes. However, for the nuclear licensing, the CNEN request through their regulatory instruments and standard formats, that the risks, the failure mechanisms and detection be identified, which can allow the preventive and mitigate actions. This paper proposes the utilization of the FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) technique in the licensing process. It was implemented a software through the Excel program, using the Visual Basic for Applications program which allows the automation and the standardization of FMEA studies as well

  7. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  8. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  9. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudell, Thomas P. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  10. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  11. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  12. Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.

    2014-06-01

    Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

  13. ENGINEERING STUDIES BASED ON SYSTEM-MORPHOLOGICAL APPROACH AND AIMED AT EVALUATION OF RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH OIL AND GAS FACILITIES IN NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Zhirov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The technique of an engineering and geomorphological assessment of the territory with use of system and morphological approach within design researches in connection with arrangement of oil and gas fields is given. Advantages of preliminary allocation of linear and vulgar elements of a relief to the subsequent engineering and geomorphological mapping are shown. Communication of separate geotopological parameters with an assessment of breakdown rate of pipelines on the example of certain taiga and tundra territories in the Russian North is revealed.

  14. Localized Scleroderma, Systemic Sclerosis and Cardiovascular Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hesselvig, Jeanette Halskou; Kofoed, Kristian; Wu, Jashin J

    2018-01-01

    Recent findings indicate that patients with systemic sclerosis have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To determine whether patients with systemic sclerosis or localized scleroderma are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, a cohort study of the entire Danish population aged ≥ 18...... and ≤ 100 years was conducted, followed from 1997 to 2011 by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for a composite cardiovascular disease endpoint. A total of 697 patients with localized scleroderma and 1......,962 patients with systemic sclerosis were identified and compared with 5,428,380 people in the reference population. In systemic sclerosis, the adjusted HR was 2.22 (95% confidence interval 1.99-2.48). No association was seen between patients with localized scleroderma and cardiovascular disease. In conclusion...

  15. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  16. Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...

  17. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  18. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  19. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  20. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  1. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  2. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  3. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-based energy technologies in the United States. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO 4 , NO 2 , and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analyzed. Example results: domestic wood burning has substantial potential impact, with an upper boundary exceeding that of coal; upper-boundary air pollution impacts of gas can exceed those of oil, because of NO 2 . (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants - Implications for Public Policy. Three scenarios were examined, leading to estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 annual premature deaths, depending on year (1978 vs 2000) and scenario (holding total emissions constant vs 30% reduction). (4) health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7 x 10 -9 average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5 x 10 -4 for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be to be unrealistic. 39 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

  4. Immunological Risk of Injectable Drug Delivery Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiskoot, W.; van Schie, R.M.F.; Carstens, M.G.; Schellekens, H.

    2009-01-01

    Injectable drug delivery systems (DDS) such as particulate carriers and water-soluble polymers are being used and developed for a wide variety of therapeutic applications. However, a number of immunological risks with serious clinical implications are associated with administration of DDS. These

  5. Systems reliability in high risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunns, D.M.

    1974-12-01

    A summary is given of five papers and the discussion of a seminar promoted by the newly-formed National Centre of Systems Reliability. The topics covered include hazard analysis, reliability assessment, and risk assessment in both nuclear and non-nuclear industries. (U.K.)

  6. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  7. Pension systems, intergenerational risk sharing and inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate intergenerational risk sharing in two-pillar pension systems with a pay-as-you-go pillar and a funded pillar. We consider shocks in productivity, depreciation of capital and inflation. The funded pension pillar can be either defined contribution or defined benefit, with benefits

  8. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  9. The enterprise-wide risk management system of CNNC Lanzhou Uranium Enrichment Co., Ltd

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yinliang; Li Xuehong; Zhao Zhifu

    2010-01-01

    This paper targeted at the enterprise-wide risk management system of CNNC Lanzhou uranium enrichment co., Ltd., combining the Central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines document, outlining the main content of the overall risk management system on target, structure, process, strategy, internal control, information and culture. And it provides specific measures in evaluation and monitoring to enhance the total risk management system of CNNC Lanzhou uranium co, ltd on the basis of following the principles of total risk management system. and provides proper insurance for the overall target of risk management. (authors)

  10. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  11. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  12. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  13. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  14. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  15. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  16. A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

    1978-01-01

    Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

  17. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  18. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  19. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-01

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  20. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-04

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  1. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, C.A.; Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.

    1975-06-01

    There has been much discussion and public debate concerning the effectiveness of the national system of safeguards against malevolent acts involving nuclear materials. Useful dialogue on this subject has been hampered by the lack of well-defined objectives, system parameters and boundary conditions as a framework for communication. This study provides such a framework. Expressing the safeguards objective in terms of societal risk represents a change in focus, rather than intent, from the earlier view of safeguards as a system for protecting nuclear material against theft or diversion. The study defines both the safeguards problem and the safeguards system in terms that can be related to the general safeguards objective. It is axiomatic that the first step to an effective solution is a careful definition of the problem. The significant and immediate value of this study lies in the rigorous definition and systematic organization of recognized elements into a coherent and comprehensive pattern. Although the title specifically addresses design and evaluation, the framework provided by the study will be a useful management tool for safeguards implementation and administration as well. (U.S.)

  2. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  3. Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

  4. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  5. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  6. SU-E-T-381: Evaluation of Calculated Dose Accuracy for Organs-At-Risk Located at Out-Of-Field in a Commercial Treatment Planning System for High Energy Photon Beams Produced From TrueBeam Accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L; Ding, G

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Dose calculation accuracy for the out-of-field dose is important for predicting the dose to the organs-at-risk when they are located outside primary beams. The investigations on evaluating the calculation accuracy of treatment planning systems (TPS) on out-of-field dose in existing publications have focused on low energy (6MV) photon. This study evaluates out-of-field dose calculation accuracy of AAA algorithm for 15MV high energy photon beams. Methods: We used the EGSnrc Monte Carlo (MC) codes to evaluate the AAA algorithm in Varian Eclipse TPS (v.11). The incident beams start with validated Varian phase-space sources for a TrueBeam linac equipped with Millennium 120 MLC. Dose comparisons between using AAA and MC for CT based realistic patient treatment plans using VMAT techniques for prostate and lung were performed and uncertainties of organ dose predicted by AAA at out-of-field location were evaluated. Results: The results show that AAA calculations under-estimate doses at the dose level of 1% (or less) of prescribed dose for CT based patient treatment plans using VMAT techniques. In regions where dose is only 1% of prescribed dose, although AAA under-estimates the out-of-field dose by 30% relative to the local dose, it is only about 0.3% of prescribed dose. For example, the uncertainties of calculated organ dose to liver or kidney that is located out-of-field is <0.3% of prescribed dose. Conclusion: For 15MV high energy photon beams, very good agreements (<1%) in calculating dose distributions were obtained between AAA and MC. The uncertainty of out-of-field dose calculations predicted by the AAA algorithm for realistic patient VMAT plans is <0.3% of prescribed dose in regions where the dose relative to the prescribed dose is <1%, although the uncertainties can be much larger relative to local doses. For organs-at-risk located at out-of-field, the error of dose predicted by Eclipse using AAA is negligible. This work was conducted in part using the

  7. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  8. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  9. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  10. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  11. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  12. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  13. Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

    1991-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

  14. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

  15. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  16. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  17. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  18. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  19. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  20. Does Corporate Governance Impact Risk Management System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petre BREZEANU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings forth the contribution of corporate governance to risk management system at the enterprise level. The research is a complex one, integrating both quantitative and qualitative information. The quantitative information consists of balance sheet and profit and loss account data while the qualitative one includes dummy variables reflecting the agency and monitoring costs which govern the relationship between managers and shareholders.

  1. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  2. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  3. [Development and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jing-yi; Chen, Hua; Zhu, Sheng-mei

    2010-09-21

    To study the design, implementation and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system. To record, process and store peri-operative patient data automatically, all kinds of bedside monitoring equipments are connected into the system based on information integrating technology; after a statistical analysis of those patient data by data mining technology, patient status can be evaluated automatically based on risk prediction standard and decision support system, and then anesthetist could perform reasonable and safe clinical processes; with clinical processes electronically recorded, standard record tables could be generated, and clinical workflow is optimized, as well. With the system, kinds of patient data could be collected, stored, analyzed and archived, kinds of anesthesia documents could be generated, and patient status could be evaluated to support clinic decision. The anesthesia information management system is useful for improving anesthesia quality, decreasing risk of patient and clinician, and aiding to provide clinical proof.

  4. Proximity systems: Analysis of health risks; Varchi magneticianalysis of health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbaro, V.; Bartolini, P.; Donato, A. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Ingegneria Biomedica; Militello, C.; Polichetti, A.; Vecchia, P. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Fisica

    1996-03-01

    The results of a study on the magnetic fields generated by proximity systems for the controlled access of personnel are reported. Besides data from experimental measurements, the results are presented of theoretical calculations of induced currents inside the body. Health risks are also evaluated based on a comparison with the most advanced international standards. Finally, possible effects of interference with implanted pacemakers are analyzed in detail.

  5. A genetic fuzzy system for unstable angina risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wei; Huang, Zhengxing; Ji, Lei; Duan, Huilong

    2014-02-18

    Unstable Angina (UA) is widely accepted as a critical phase of coronary heart disease with patients exhibiting widely varying risks. Early risk assessment of UA is at the center of the management program, which allows physicians to categorize patients according to the clinical characteristics and stratification of risk and different prognosis. Although many prognostic models have been widely used for UA risk assessment in clinical practice, a number of studies have highlighted possible shortcomings. One serious drawback is that existing models lack the ability to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty about the variables utilized. In order to help physicians refine knowledge for the stratification of UA risk with respect to vagueness in information, this paper develops an intelligent system combining genetic algorithm and fuzzy association rule mining. In detail, it models the input information's vagueness through fuzzy sets, and then applies a genetic fuzzy system on the acquired fuzzy sets to extract the fuzzy rule set for the problem of UA risk assessment. The proposed system is evaluated using a real data-set collected from the cardiology department of a Chinese hospital, which consists of 54 patient cases. 9 numerical patient features and 17 categorical patient features that appear in the data-set are selected in the experiments. The proposed system made the same decisions as the physician in 46 (out of a total of 54) tested cases (85.2%). By comparing the results that are obtained through the proposed system with those resulting from the physician's decision, it has been found that the developed model is highly reflective of reality. The proposed system could be used for educational purposes, and with further improvements, could assist and guide young physicians in their daily work.

  6. Peculiarities of the risk management system organization in current conditions

    OpenAIRE

    MIKHIN P.O.

    2014-01-01

    Risk-management system organization problem is topical nowadays. The innovation activity is defined as an activity vulnerable to risk and needs more attention. The basic approaches and elements of organization structure development in risk-management system are considered to find out the best structure for business modelling usage. Balance and combination of risk-management system types are required in current conditions.

  7. Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Kuei-Yung; Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Agencies are increasingly following principles and guidelines for the coordination of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication in large-scale programs. In particular, there is a challenge to comply with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis” among other guidelines. This paper demonstrates a systemic approach to achieve compliance of a risk program with administrative and organizational principles and guidelines for risk analysis. The paper suggests three canonical questions as the mission of such a program: (i) what sources of risks are to be managed by the program, (ii) how should multiple risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication activities be administered and coordinated, and what should be the basis for resource allocation to these activities, and (iii) how will the performance of the program be monitored and evaluated. The paper demonstrates a re-prioritization of policy initiatives of the program based on emergent and future conditions. The approach is useful to agencies implementing risk or safety organizational guidelines such as those of the OMB, the US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Department of Defense, and others. This paper will be of interest to risk managers; agencies; and risk and safety analysts engaged in the conception, implementation, and evaluation of risk or safety programs. - Highlights: ► We develop a systemic approach for management of a risk or safety program. ► The approach includes business process models and policy prioritization. ► The results support organizations to implement risk and safety programs.

  8. The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

  9. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  10. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  11. General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

  12. GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

  13. Automated systems to identify relevant documents in product risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Product risk management involves critical assessment of the risks and benefits of health products circulating in the market. One of the important sources of safety information is the primary literature, especially for newer products which regulatory authorities have relatively little experience with. Although the primary literature provides vast and diverse information, only a small proportion of which is useful for product risk assessment work. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the possibility of using text mining to automate the identification of useful articles, which will reduce the time taken for literature search and hence improving work efficiency. In this study, term-frequency inverse document-frequency values were computed for predictors extracted from the titles and abstracts of articles related to three tumour necrosis factors-alpha blockers. A general automated system was developed using only general predictors and was tested for its generalizability using articles related to four other drug classes. Several specific automated systems were developed using both general and specific predictors and training sets of different sizes in order to determine the minimum number of articles required for developing such systems. Results The general automated system had an area under the curve value of 0.731 and was able to rank 34.6% and 46.2% of the total number of 'useful' articles among the first 10% and 20% of the articles presented to the evaluators when tested on the generalizability set. However, its use may be limited by the subjective definition of useful articles. For the specific automated system, it was found that only 20 articles were required to develop a specific automated system with a prediction performance (AUC 0.748) that was better than that of general automated system. Conclusions Specific automated systems can be developed rapidly and avoid problems caused by subjective definition of useful articles. Thus the efficiency of

  14. The third experiment of operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsumura, Soichiro; Kimura, Hiroshi; Furuta, Kazuo; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2006-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for HLW disposal on World Wide Web. We have been evaluating ORCAT system. After two test operations, we carried out the third test operation from Aug. 29 to Dec. 12, 2005. In the third test operation, 100 participants answered the questionnaires about the attitude change and knowledge. We classified the participants into two groups by the analysis on the number of login a week, and analyzed the change of the amount of subjective and objective knowledge. In the result of analysis on knowledge, the increase of amount of subjective knowledge doesn't always carried the increase of amount of objective knowledge. On the whole we found that the ORCAT system is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  15. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  16. TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

    1988-01-01

    TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

  17. Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzu, Simone; Tedeschi, Gabriele

    2012-09-01

    In this paper we develop an interbank market with heterogeneous financial institutions that enter into lending agreements on different network structures. Credit relationships (links) evolve endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents' performance. By changing the agent's trust on its neighbor's performance, interbank linkages self-organize themselves into very different network architectures, ranging from random to scale-free topologies. We study which network architecture can make the financial system more resilient to random attacks and how systemic risk spreads over the network. To perturb the system, we generate a random attack via a liquidity shock. The hit bank is not automatically eliminated, but its failure is endogenously driven by its incapacity to raise liquidity in the interbank network. Our analysis shows that a random financial network can be more resilient than a scale free one in case of agents' heterogeneity.

  18. Risk Factors for Subsequent Central Nervous System Tumors in Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gabriel, Melissa; Shaw, Bronwen E; Brazauskas, Ruta

    2017-01-01

    Survivors of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) are at risk of subsequent solid tumors, including central nervous system (CNS) tumors. The risk of CNS tumors after HCT in pediatric HCT recipients is not known. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for CNS tumors in pediatric recipients...

  19. Fission yield data evaluation system FYDES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tingjin

    1998-01-01

    Taking account of some features of fission yield data, to do the fission yield data evaluation conveniently, a fission yield data evaluation system FYDES has been developed for last two years. Outline of the system, data retrieval and data table standardization, data correction codes, data averaging code, simultaneous evaluation code and data fit programs were introduced

  20. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    reactive mineral surface area. The formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces the amount of surface available to react with fluids. Our results show that negatively charged ion complexes, responsible for U transport, decreases when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower. Carbonate ion pairs however, may increase U mobility when radionuclide concentration is high and rock buffer capacity is low. The present work helps to orient future monitoring of this site in Brazil as well as of other sites where uranium is linked to igneous rock formations, without the presence of sulphides. Monitoring SO4 migration (in acidic leaching uranium sites) seems to be an efficient and simple way to track different hazards, especially in tropical conditions, where the succession of dry and wet periods increases the weathering action of the residual H2SO4. Nevertheless, models of risk evaluation should take into account reactive surface areas and neogenic minerals since they determine the U ion complex formation, which in turn, controls uranium mobility in natural systems. Keywords: uranium mining, reactive mineral surface area, uranium complexes, inverse modelling approach, risk evaluation

  1. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  2. Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2018-01-01

    The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  4. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  5. CRISIS: A System for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica Y. Sanchez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In a situation of an unexpected catastrophe, uncertainty and demand for information are constant. In such a disaster scenario, the CRISIS system arises as a tool to contribute to previous coordination, procedure validation, exercise execution, a good and frequent communication among organizations, and weakness and threat assessment for an appropriate risk management. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. For Argentinean society, it is a necessity to switch from the current handcrafted, bureaucratic emergency management method to a decision-making management model. Previous coordination, exercise execution, a fluid communication among institutions, and threats and weaknesses assessment are required for a proper risk management. With that goal in mind, it is important to reduce confusion, avoid the duplication of efforts to fulfill the same tasks, and have access to a complete vision of the situation, generated from the data of all the organizations taking part. The CRISIS system is a secure web application, accessible to every node in a network formed by the organizations which have complementary responsibilities during prevention and response. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, media (organization and resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. Currently, there are toxicological and epidemiological emergency models available. The present paper analyses, from the perspectives related to risk management for emergencies and disasters, the strengths and weaknesses

  6. Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

  7. Evaluation of mobile systems: an integrative framework.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Högler, T.; Versendaal, J.; Batenburg, R.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents an integrative framework for the evaluation of mobile systems. In comparison to stationary systems, mobile systems have a bundle of specific singularities that should be considered for evaluation. Further analysis of existing approaches clarifies that an integrative approach for

  8. Pervious Pavement System Evaluation- Abstract

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porous pavement is a low impact development stormwater control. The Urban Watershed Management Branch is evaluating interlocking concrete pavers as a popular implementation. The pavers themselves are impermeable, but the spaces between the pavers are backfilled with washed, gra...

  9. Comparative risk assessment of total energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.

    1982-01-01

    The paper discusses a methodology for total impact assessment of energy systems, ideally evaluating all the impacts that a given energy system has on the society in which it is imbedded or into which its introduction is being considered. Impacts from the entire energy conversion chain ('fuel cycle' if the system is fuel-based), including energy storage, transport and transmission, as well as the institutions formed in order to manage the system, should be compared on the basis of the energy service provided. A number of impacts are considered, broadly classified as impacts on satisfaction of biological needs, on health, on environment, on social relations and on the structure of society. Further considerations include impacts related to cost and resilience, and, last but not least, impacts on global relations. The paper discusses a number of published energy studies in the light of the comparative impact assessment methodology outlined above. (author)

  10. Performance Evaluation Of Behavioral Biometric Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Cherifi , Fouad; Hemery , Baptiste; Giot , Romain; Pasquet , Marc; Rosenberger , Christophe

    2009-01-01

    We present in this chapter an overview of techniques for the performance evaluation of behavioral biometric systems. The BioAPI standard that defines the architecture of a biometric system is presented in the first part of the chapter... The general methodology for the evaluation of biometric systems is given including statistical metrics, definition of benchmark databases and subjective evaluation. These considerations rely with the ISO/IEC19795-1 standard describing the biometric performanc...

  11. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  12. Evaluating neural networks and artificial intelligence systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberts, David S.

    1994-02-01

    Systems have no intrinsic value in and of themselves, but rather derive value from the contributions they make to the missions, decisions, and tasks they are intended to support. The estimation of the cost-effectiveness of systems is a prerequisite for rational planning, budgeting, and investment documents. Neural network and expert system applications, although similar in their incorporation of a significant amount of decision-making capability, differ from each other in ways that affect the manner in which they can be evaluated. Both these types of systems are, by definition, evolutionary systems, which also impacts their evaluation. This paper discusses key aspects of neural network and expert system applications and their impact on the evaluation process. A practical approach or methodology for evaluating a certain class of expert systems that are particularly difficult to measure using traditional evaluation approaches is presented.

  13. A SURVEY OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SETHI Narayan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Rising global competition, increasing deregulation, and introduction of innovative products have pushed financial risk management to the forefront of today's financial landscape. Identification of different types of risks and effective management of these risks in the international financial system would help to alleviate crisis, financial losses and also helpful to the long term success of all the financial institutions. The present study aims to analyze different types of risk management strategies and throws some light on challenges and opportunities regarding implementation of Basel-II in international financial system. The present paper also attempts to discuss the different methods and techniques used to measure financial risk management. There are three types of risk faced by all financial institutions: market risk, credit risk and operational risk. In commercial banking, credit risk is the biggest risk; in investment banking, its market risk; and in asset management, it’s operational risk.

  14. Measurement and evaluation systems for NPP commissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elko, Marek

    2006-01-01

    Standard core monitoring and information systems are designed with an emphasis on normal operation of nuclear power plant. Their purpose is to provide necessary support for reactor operators and other operating personnel during the fuel cycle. After each fuel reloading, and to the larger extent during the plant commissioning, a variety of start-up tests need to be carried out and evaluated. Sampling periods, accuracy and communication delays of standard systems are not always suitable for test performance and evaluation. For technical and safety reasons, the access to standard monitoring and information systems is very limited. Non-Standard Measurement and Evaluation Systems are highly specialized devices designed with an emphasis on start-up tests performance and evaluation. They are capable of high frequency sampling, processing and communication of hundreds of technological signals with required accuracy and low communication delay. All technological signals needed for the test performance and evaluation are collected from various systems, concentrated in one system and fully accessible to a test leader, a reactor physicist or other users. In addition, Non-Standard Measurement and Evaluation Systems can perform other tasks like data storing and presentation, data distribution to other systems or external computers via network, reactivity calculations, etc. Structure of such systems can vary, but generally it is a mixture of two basic concepts: a mobile system and a stationary system. A basic description of hardware structure and software equipment of Non-Standard Measurement and Evaluation Systems is given in the paper (Authors)

  15. [Safety evaluation and risk control measures of Cassiae Semen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yi-Meng; Wu, Li; Zhang, Shuo; Zhang, Li; Gao, Xue-Min; Sun, Xiao-Bo; Wang, Chun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the authors reviewed domestic and foreign literatures, conducted the textual research on origin and development of Cassia Semen, studied records in ancient books and ancient and modern literatures, clinical adverse reactions and relevant experimental studies in recent years, and summarized the clinical features and influencing factors related to the safety of Cassiae Semen. According to the findings,Cassia Semen's safety risks are mainly liver and kidney system damages, with the main clinical features of fatigue, anorexia, disgusting of oil, yellow urine and gray stool; digestive system injury, with the main clinical features of diarrhea, abdominal distension, nausea and loose stool; reproductive system damage, with the main clinical features of vaginal bleeding. Allergic reactions and clinical adverse events, with the main clinical features for numb mouth, itching skin, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, wheezing and lip cyanosis were also reported. The toxicological studies on toxic components of Cassiae Semen obtusifolia were carried out through acute toxicity test, subacute toxicity test, subchronic toxicity test and chronic toxicity test. Risk factors might include patients, compatibility and physicians. Physicians should strictly abide by the medication requirements in the Pharmacopoeia, pay attention to rational compatibility, appropriate dosage,correct usage and appropriate processing, control the dosage below 15 g to avoid excessive intake, strictly control the course of treatment to avoid accumulated poisoning caused by long-term administration. At the same time, clinicians should pay attention to the latest research progress, update the knowledge structure, quickly find the latest and useful materials from clinical practice, scientific research and drug information and other literatures, make evaluation and judgment for the materials, establish a traditional Chinese medicine intelligence information library, and strengthen the control over

  16. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  17. Evaluating a Skills Management System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Largier, A.

    2013-01-01

    In order to anticipate the large number of people due to retire in the next few years, and to optimize the workforce contribution, IRSN (Institute for radiation protection and nuclear safety) is setting up skill management. This poster presents the IRSN's skill management system. The skill management system is based on a 4 step approach: -) identifying and listing the necessary skills, -) assessing the skills available, -) defining and setting up solutions: training, recruitment, out-sourcing), and -) feedback about the efficiency of the system. It appears that it is important to take into account the way the organization considers individual ability in order to favour collective proficiency

  18. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  19. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  20. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  1. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  2. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  3. Adversary characterization for security system evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suber, L.A. Jr.

    1976-04-01

    Evaluation of security systems effectiveness requires a definition of adversary capabilities, but an objective basis for such a definition has been lacking. A system of adversary attributes is proposed in which any desired adversary may be synthesized by selection of the appropriate level of capability from each attribute or category. In use, the synthesized adversaries will be pitted against a security system in an evaluation model, thus allowing comparison of other adversary or security system configurations

  4. Modular system design and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, Mark Sh

    2015-01-01

    This book examines seven key combinatorial engineering frameworks (composite schemes consisting of algorithms and/or interactive procedures) for hierarchical modular (composite) systems. These frameworks are based on combinatorial optimization problems (e.g., knapsack problem, multiple choice problem, assignment problem, morphological clique problem), with the author’s version of morphological design approach – Hierarchical Morphological Multicritieria Design (HMMD) – providing a conceptual lens with which to elucidate the examples discussed. This approach is based on ordinal estimates of design alternatives for systems parts/components, however, the book also puts forward an original version of HMMD that is based on new interval multiset estimates for the design alternatives with special attention paid to the aggregation of modular solutions (system versions). The second part of ‘Modular System Design and Evaluation’ provides ten information technology case studies that enriches understanding of th...

  5. Incidental emotions influence risk preference and outcome evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ding; Gu, Ruolei; Tang, Ping; Yang, Qiwei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2016-10-01

    Incidental emotions, which are irrelevant to the current decision, play a significant role in the decision-making process. In this study, to investigate the influence of incidental emotions on behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses in the process of decision making, participants were required to perform a monetary gambling task. During the selection stage, an emotional picture, which was chosen from the Chinese Affective Picture System and fell into one of three categories: negative, neutral, and positive, was presented between two alternatives (small/large amount of bet). The pictures were provided to induce incidental emotions. ERPs and self-rating emotional experiences to outcome feedback were recorded during the task. Behavioral results showed that positive incidental emotions elicited risk preference, but emotional experiences to outcome feedback were not influenced by incidental emotions. The feedback-related negativity amplitudes were larger in the positive emotion condition than in the negative and neutral emotion conditions for small outcomes (including wins and losses), whereas there was no difference between the three conditions for large outcomes. In addition, the amplitudes of P3 were reduced overall in the negative emotion condition. We suggest that incidental emotions have modulated both the option assessment stage (manifested in behavioral choices) and the outcome evaluation stage (manifested in ERP amplitudes) of decision making unconsciously (indicated by unchanged subjective emotional experiences). The current findings have expanded our understanding of the role of incidental emotion in decision making. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  6. Dependability Evaluation of Advanced Diverse Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Yang Gyun; Lee, Yoon Hee; Sohn, Se Do; Baek, Seung Min; Lee, Sang Jeong

    2014-01-01

    For the mitigation of anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) as well as common cause failure (CCF) within the plant protection system (PPS) and the emergency safety feature . component control system (ESF-CCS), the diverse protection system (DPS) has been designed by KEPCO Engineering and Construction Company. Recently KEPCO E and C has developed the advanced diverse protection system (ADPS), which has four redundant channels, in an attempt to enhance a fault-tolerant capability of the system. For the evaluation of overall system improvement effects of the ADPS compared with the DPS, the dependability evaluation results are described herein. For all dependability attributes, this paper suggests a practical dependability evaluation method which uses quantitative dependability scores and indices. An overall dependability evaluation index (DEI) for the ADPS is evaluated with the average value of reliability/ security/maintainability/safety indices (i.e., RID, SID, MID, and SID') for dependability. The evaluation results show that the DEI value of ADPS can be improved by approximately 23% compared with that of the DPS, thanks to its fault-tolerant system architecture, software design changes, and external interface design features. Several suggestions have been made, in this paper, of an overall quantitative dependability evaluation method for the nuclear instrumentation and control (I and C) systems including the DPS and ADPS, and the usefulness of dependability evaluation on nuclear I and C systems has been confirmed

  7. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

  8. Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

    OpenAIRE

    Jinsoo Shin; Hanseong Son; Gyunyoung Heo

    2017-01-01

    Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluatio...

  9. Slip and fall risk on ice and snow:identification, evaluation and prevention

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Chuansi

    2004-01-01

    Slip and fall accidents and associated injuries on ice and snow are prevalent among outdoor workers and the general public in winter in many regions of the world. To understand and tackle this multi-factorial problem, a multidisciplinary approach was used to identify and evaluate slip and fall risks, and to propose recommendations for prevention of slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces. Objectives were to present a systems perspective of slip and fall accidents and related risk factors; t...

  10. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. EMCAS: An evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggers, R.F.; Giese, E.W.; Bichl, F.J.

    1987-01-01

    EMCAS is an evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems. It provides a score card of projected or actual system performance for several areas of system operation. In one area, the performance of material control and accounting and security systems, which jointly defend against the insider threat to divert or steal special nuclear material (SNM) using stealth and deceit, is evaluated. Time-dependent and time-independent risk equations are used for both diversion and theft risk calculations. In the case of loss detection by material accounting, a detailed timeliness model is provided to determine the combined effects of loss detection sensitivity and timeliness on the overall effectiveness of the material accounting detection procedure. Calculated risks take into account the capabilities of process area containment/surveillance, material accounting mass balance tests, and physical protection barriers and procedures. In addition, EMCAS evaluates the Material Control and Accounting (MC and A) System in the following areas: (1) system capability to detect errors in the official book inventory of SNM, using mass balance accounting methods, (2) system capability to prevent errors from entering the nuclear material data base during periods of operation between mass balance tests, (3) time to conduct inventories and resolve alarms, and (4) time lost from production to carry out material control and accounting loss detection activities. 3 figs., 5 tabs

  12. EMCAS, an evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggers, R.F.; Giese, E.W.; Bichl, F.J.

    1987-01-01

    EMCAS is an evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems. It provides a score card of projected or actual system performance for several areas of system operation. In one area, the performance of material control and accounting and security systems, which jointly defend against the insider threat to divert or steal special nuclear material (SNM) using stealth and deceit, is evaluated. Time-dependent and time-independent risk equations are used for both diversion and theft risk calculations. In the case of loss detection by material accounting, a detailed timeliness model is provided to determine the combined effects of loss detection sensitivity and timeliness on the overall effectiveness of the material accounting detection procedure. Calculated risks take into account the capabilities of process area containment/surveillance, material accounting mass balance tests, and physical protection barriers and procedures. In addition, EMCAS evaluates the Material Control and Accounting (MCandA) System in the following areas: (1) system capability to detect errors in the official book inventory of SNM, using mass balance accounting methods, (2) system capability to prevent errors from entering the nuclear material data base during periods of operation between mass balance tests, (3) time to conduct inventories and resolve alarms, and (4) time lost from production to carry out material control and accounting loss detection activities

  13. Road Anomalies Detection System Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Nuno; Shah, Vaibhav; Soares, João; Rodrigues, Helena

    2018-06-21

    Anomalies on road pavement cause discomfort to drivers and passengers, and may cause mechanical failure or even accidents. Governments spend millions of Euros every year on road maintenance, often causing traffic jams and congestion on urban roads on a daily basis. This paper analyses the difference between the deployment of a road anomalies detection and identification system in a “conditioned” and a real world setup, where the system performed worse compared to the “conditioned” setup. It also presents a system performance analysis based on the analysis of the training data sets; on the analysis of the attributes complexity, through the application of PCA techniques; and on the analysis of the attributes in the context of each anomaly type, using acceleration standard deviation attributes to observe how different anomalies classes are distributed in the Cartesian coordinates system. Overall, in this paper, we describe the main insights on road anomalies detection challenges to support the design and deployment of a new iteration of our system towards the deployment of a road anomaly detection service to provide information about roads condition to drivers and government entities.

  14. Place of Risk Analysis in Tax Audit: Some Country Practices and an Evaluation for Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feride BAKAR

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of information technologies and risk analysis have become an important position in tax audit, as in all fields. Systems used in this area, are different in many ways and for this reason, making comparative study, evaluating best practices and its effects to results should be examined. In this study, development of risk analysis systems in Australia, United Kingdom, Austria, the USA and their place ensuring effectiveness of tax audit was investigated. Thus, some findings were made for Turkey with help of examining the current status of tax audits based on risk analysis. In the past, risk analysis was used for providing effectiveness of tax audit, but today the purpose has evolved to focus increasing tax compliance. For realization of this purpose in Turkey, disclosure of risk areas in general, informing taxpayers and establishment of cooperative compliance model with large business is needed.

  15. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  16. Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Szpyrka

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

  17. Risk informed inservice inspection evaluation of the ComEd nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Hutchinson, J.J.

    2000-01-01

    In November, 1999 Commonwealth Edison Company began the largest scope project yet performed to implement risk informed in-service inspection programs for piping systems. A contractor team led by ERIN Engineering and Research was selected to perform full scope risk informed evaluations on ten reactor units at five sites including 3 BWR and 2 PWR stations. This risk informed evaluation has applied a number of advancements to RISI technology in key areas including risk quantification of inspection program changes, element selection, treatment of multiple damage mechanisms at a given location, and in streamlining an approach to RISI initially developed by EPRI. The scope of the evaluation covered more than 18,000 ASME Class 1 and 2 welds not counting those that will continue to be inspected as part of augmented programs for flow accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and service water systems. When the current ASME Section XI based exams are replaced by the risk informed program, while some new inspection locations will be added, substantial cost savings and person-rem exposures are projected from the elimination of most of the current exams. ComEd expects to recover its investment in the RISI evaluation for each of the 10 reactor units in 1 to 2 refueling outages, from the cost savings of reduced inspections. At the same time, the risk of a severe accident due to pipe ruptures is not expected to exhibit significant changes. (author)

  18. UNIX-based operating systems robustness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yu-Ming

    1996-01-01

    Robust operating systems are required for reliable computing. Techniques for robustness evaluation of operating systems not only enhance the understanding of the reliability of computer systems, but also provide valuable feed- back to system designers. This thesis presents results from robustness evaluation experiments on five UNIX-based operating systems, which include Digital Equipment's OSF/l, Hewlett Packard's HP-UX, Sun Microsystems' Solaris and SunOS, and Silicon Graphics' IRIX. Three sets of experiments were performed. The methodology for evaluation tested (1) the exception handling mechanism, (2) system resource management, and (3) system capacity under high workload stress. An exception generator was used to evaluate the exception handling mechanism of the operating systems. Results included exit status of the exception generator and the system state. Resource management techniques used by individual operating systems were tested using programs designed to usurp system resources such as physical memory and process slots. Finally, the workload stress testing evaluated the effect of the workload on system performance by running a synthetic workload and recording the response time of local and remote user requests. Moderate to severe performance degradations were observed on the systems under stress.

  19. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  20. Development of a School Leadership Evaluation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlando, Nik

    2014-01-01

    This action research study examined the effectiveness of the process implemented by Partnerships to Uplift Communities (PUC) Schools Charter Management Organization to develop their school leader evaluation system in collaboration with current PUC school leaders. The development of the leadership evaluation system included the collective voices of…

  1. IDEA: A Unifying Theory for Evaluation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bella, Giampaolo; Giustolisi, Rosario

    2017-01-01

    Secure systems for voting, exams, auctions and conference paper management are theorised to address the same problem, that of secure evaluations. In support of such a unifying theory comes a model for Secure Evaluation Systems (SES), which offers innovative common grounds to understand all four...

  2. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

  3. Solar Thermal System Evaluation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyu Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available More than 581 solar thermal systems (STSs, 98 counties, and 47 renewable application demonstration cites in China need to be inspected by the end of 2015. In this study, the baseline for performance and economic evaluation of STSs are presented based on the site test data and related references. An index used to evaluate STSs was selected, and methods to acquire the parameters used to calculate the related index were set. The requirements for sensors for testing were specified. The evaluation method was applied to three systems and the result shows that the evaluation method is suitable for the evaluation of STSs in China.

  4. Task oriented evaluation system for maintenance robots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asame, Hajime; Endo, Isao; Kotosaka, Shin-ya; Takata, Shozo; Hiraoka, Hiroyuki; Kohda, Takehisa; Matsumoto, Akihiro; Yamagishi, Kiichiro.

    1994-01-01

    The adaptability evaluation of maintenance robots to autonomous plants has been discussed. In this paper, a new concept of autonomous plant with maintenance robots are introduced, and a framework of autonomous maintenance system is proposed. Then, task-oriented evaluation of robot arms is discussed for evaluating their adaptability to maintenance tasks, and a new criterion called operability is proposed for adaptability evaluation. The task-oriented evaluation system is implemented and applied to structural design of robot arms. Using genetic algorithm, an optimal structure adaptable to a pump disassembly task is obtained. (author)

  5. Radiation risks to the developing nervous system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kriegel, H.; Schmahl, W.; Stieve, F.E.; Gerber, G.B.

    1986-01-01

    A symposium dealing with 'Radiation Risks to the Developing Nervous System' held at Neuherberg, June 18-20, 1985 was organised by the Radiation Protection Programme of the Commission of the European Communities and the Gesellschaft fuer Strahlen- und Umweltforschung mbH. The proceedings of this symposium present up-to-date information on the development of the nervous system and the modifications caused by prenatal radiation there upon. A large part of the proceedings is devoted to the consequences of prenatal irradiation in experimental animals with respect to alterations in morphology, biochemistry and behaviour, to the influence of dose, dose rate and radiation quality and to the question whether damage of the brain can arise from a synergistic action of radiation together with other agents. Since animal models for damage to the human central nervous system have inherent short-comings due to the differences in structure, complexity and development it is discussed how experimental studies could be applied to the human situation. The most recent data on persons exposed in utero at Hiroshima and Nagasaki are reviewed. A round table discussion, published in full, analyses all this information with a view to radiation protection, and defines the areas where future studies are needed. Separate abstracts were prepared for papers in these proceedings. (orig./MG)

  6. Urogenital system diseases's radiological evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bianchi, S; Mecozzi, B

    1985-01-01

    Radiological urogenital radiography reliability, can be compromised because of absence of a correct urodynamic diagnosis. It is then required that specialist radiologists know the problems concerning the urogenital system radiographies cannot be made in many cases, because of the scarcity in hospitals of idoneous urodynamic services.

  7. Establishment of nuclear data evaluation system (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Jong Hwa; Lee, Chang Kun; Kim, Jeong Do; Kim, Young Sik; Kim, Young Jin; Kim, Hyung Guk; Kil, Chung Sup; Kim, Kang Suk

    1994-08-01

    Nuclear data is fundamental data for development of new type of nuclear, upgrade of nuclear fuel, treatment of radwaste, research on fusion reactor, radioisotope usage, and nuclear medical therapy. Nuclear data is produced with experiments. However rack of experimental data for thousands of nuclides and various reaction types makes it essential to do statistical evaluation and theoretical interpolation. This study is intended to join international cooperation after establishing domestic basis for nuclear data evaluation work. This project is the first year of five year plan to do followings: 1) Establishment of database system to collect experimental data, 2) Setup of computer assistance system for evaluation work, 3) Verification of established system by test evaluation of selected nuclide reaction. The system has a collection of mass data of nuclides, computer codes for test evaluation of total cross section of 0-16 and collection of EXFOR format data for 0-16. This system will be improved continuously on next years. (Author)

  8. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  9. Economic framework for information system evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, D.W.; Roderer, N.K.

    1979-01-01

    In the evaluation of complex information systems, it is useful to work within a generalized economic framework. This framework is based on consideration of four evaluation levels, including those associated with the overall system, system functions, products and services, and activities. Measures of cost and output can be defined at each level, with output measures related to volume of activity, performance, effectiveness, and benefit. The description of this framework includes definitions of the terminology used. Examples of the application of the framework to specific information system evaluations are also given. 4 figures

  10. Impact Of Exogenous And Endogenous Risks On Systemic Risk In Indonesian Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfiana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Weaknesses of the Banking Pressure Index and Financial Stability Index as an early detection system were not to involve contagion and bank run. This study aimed at determining impacts of endogenous and exogenous risks on systemic risks. It was a descriptive verificatory study using monthly secondary data of 2011-2014 and multiple regressions. Utilizing credit risk liquidity risk market risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run inflation BI rate exchange rate and systemic risk variables of the 2011-2014 period it turned out that only endogenous risks of contagion and bank run variables impacted on systemic risk in Indonesian banking. The result showed that after the test of classical linear regression assumption credit risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run and inflation variables simultaneously impacted on systemic risk and contributed to the movement of systemic risk. However our findings suggested that only contagion CONT bank run BR and inflation INF variables significantly impacted on systemic risk in a positive direction.

  11. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  12. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  13. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  14. Optimized Evaluation System to Athletic Food Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Shanshan Li

    2015-01-01

    This study presented a new method of optimizing evaluation function in athletic food safety information programming by particle swarm optimization. The process of food information evaluation function is to automatically adjust these parameters in the evaluation function by self-optimizing method accomplished through competition, which is a food information system plays against itself with different evaluation functions. The results show that the particle swarm optimization is successfully app...

  15. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  16. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  17. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: Systems science approach to change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo P Janecka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundMedicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases.There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One- it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two- it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Material / MethodPublic domain records of change, during the last fifty years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results / Conclusions Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems’ relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems.From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.

  18. Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

    2016-05-01

    In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.

  19. Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng

    2012-03-15

    Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  1. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  2. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  3. Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

    2013-01-01

    A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

  4. The use of intelligent systems for risk management in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana A. Gushchina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The article identifies the main risks of a software project, examines the use of different types of intelligent systems in the risk management process for software projects, discusses the basic methods used for process estimation and forecasting in the field of software engineering, identifies currently used empty expert systems, software systems for analysis and risk management of software projects. Materials and Methods: The author describes the peculiarities of risk management in the field of software engineering with involvement of intelligent systems. The intelligent techniques allow solving the control task with expert precision without the involvement of human experts. Results: The result of this work: – identification of the key risks of a software project (tax, legal, financial and commercial risks, IT risks, personnel risks, risks related to competitors, suppliers, marketing and demand and market; – investigation of the current, applied to risk management of software system projects, artificial intelligence, particularly expert systems and software tools for evaluation of the process results; – identification of the most popular empty expert systems (Clips, G2 and Leonardo and software products of the analysis of large databases (Orange, Weka, Rattle GUI, Apache Mahout, SCaViS, RapidMiner, Databionic ESOM Tools, ELKI, KNIME, Pandas and UIMA; – consideration of the cluster, correlation, regression, factor and dispersion analysis methods for the estimation and prediction of the processes of software engineering. Discussion and Conclusions: The results show the feasibility of the application of various intelligent systems in the risk management process. The analysis of methods of evaluating risks and the tendency of their application in the modern systems of intellectual analysis can serve as a start point for creating a unified system of risk management for software projects of medium and high complexity with a

  5. Construction Management Risk System (CMRS for Construction Management (CM Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyungmo Park

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available After the global financial crisis of 2008, the need for risk management arose because it was necessary to minimize the losses in construction management (CM firms. This was caused by a decreased amount of orders in the Korean CM market, which intensified order competition between companies. However, research results revealed that risks were not being systematically managed owing to the absence of risk management systems. Thus, it was concluded that it was necessary to develop standard operating systems and implement risk management systems in order to manage risks effectively. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a construction risk management system (CRMS for systematically managing risks. For this purpose, the field operation managers of CM firms were interviewed and surveyed in order to define risk factors. Upon this, a risk assessment priority analysis was performed. Finally, a risk management system that comprised seven modules and 20 sub-modules and was capable of responding systematically to risks was proposed. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this system was verified through on-site inspection. This system allows early response to risks, accountability verification and immediate response to legal disputes with clients by managing risk records.

  6. New evaluation system for antisabotage physical protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itakura, Shuichiro; Nakagome, Yoshihiro

    2008-01-01

    The discussion on an appropriate level of physical protection has not been elaborated so far because of the confidentiality of its nature, thus resulting in a lack of consensus on this issue. In view of this context, a new system for the evaluation of antisabotage physical protection systems is proposed in this paper, in which we introduce openness to a certain extent in the process of the evaluation. The proposed system is composed of the following three elements; (1) establishment of an evaluation basis threat (EBT), which should be less strong but more likely to occur than the design basis threat (DBT); (2) employment of realistic standard scenarios in the process of evaluation; (3) disclosure of results of evaluation implemented based on the above EBT and standard scenarios. It is expected that this considerably open system will foment peace of mind among citizens as well as create a deterrent effect that would minimize the occurrence of sabotage on nuclear facilities. (author)

  7. The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiak, E.

    1984-01-01

    The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

  8. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  9. 75 FR 60749 - Policy on Payment System Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Docket No. OP-1345] Policy on Payment System Risk AGENCY: Board of... of its Policy on Payment System Risk (PSR). The revisions explicitly recognize the role of the... payment flows for the banking system, while also helping to mitigate credit exposures of the Federal...

  10. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    This document provides guidance on the process of risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) at the Hanford Site. Remediation activities at the Hanford Site are being conducted pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Restoration, Compensation, and Liability Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This document identifies points in the remedial alternative selection process where risk assessment input is either required or desirable. For each of these points of application, the document identifies issues to consider and address, and suggests possible approaches, techniques, and appropriate levels of detail. The level of detail of a RERA is driven by the need to use risk as a criterion for selecting a remedial alternative. Such a document is needed to ensure that RERA is conducted in a consistent manner, and to prevent restating or creating guidance within each RERA

  11. How to Evaluate Integrated Library Automation Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, James R.; Slach, June E.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes methodology used in compiling a list of candidate integrated library automation systems at a corporate technical library. Priorities for automation, identification of candidate systems, the filtering process, information for suppliers, software and hardware considerations, on-site evaluations, and final system selection are…

  12. THE IMPORTANCE OF EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Economies with dominant private ownership and developed market institutions build their prosperity on a firm`s goal function in a form of maximization owner`s wealth. Financial situation of business organization is most important indicate that shows level of financial health. The creation of value for the owners imply two matters simultaneously competitive advantage and the evaluation of economic effects. Among economic activities, establishes the different types of addiction. In this work authors draw attention to two categories: the functional and stochastic. Case studies will be cash flows of investment and the contribution of the stochastic component of the risk of enterprise value. Methodological dominated analytical and descriptive methods. Management in the process of evaluation of investment seen what happens behind the projections of cash flows and estimates of available chances for possible modifications. The purpose of the discussion in this section refers to the warning that the application of the rules of net present values does not mean the completion of the management process at the moment of the decision on the selection of investments. In this study, we analyze the influence of stochastic risk in the creation of enterprise value, especially if the risk is managed improperly. In this connection, the starting hypothesis is that adequately compensate for risk has a positive effect on new investments and reduce the antagonism of shareholders and other creditors of the company.

  13. The radon in Corsica: evaluation of exposure and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-02-01

    The average level found in Corsica is superior to that one found in France. On the basis of the results of it campaign I.R.S.N.-D.G.S., the French average is of 90 Bq.m 3 against 197 Bq.m 3 for Corsica. The risk of dying from a lung cancer attributable to the radon was estimated at 13 % in France. The evaluation of risk led on Corsica shows a risk attributable to the radon included between 21.5 and 28 %.This evaluation of risk is only a stage. It is important to arrest better the exposure to the radon of the Corsican population. For a good estimation of the levels of radon and thus the impact of this one, additional measures are necessary. The results of the data analysis of exposure allow to guide the choice of the new measures: a campaign on the season effect in Corsica and a completion of the measures in housing are two main axes.Seen the importance of the interaction between the tobacco and the radon, a good estimation of the tobacco customs in Corsica and its evolution in the time seems essential to estimate indeed the impact of the radon in this region. (N.C.)

  14. The Impact of Bank Restatements on Illiquidity and Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herly, Marie

    contribute more to systemic risk than other banks and thereby have spillover effects on the financial system. Overall, this paper shows firstly, that banks manage capital with loan loss provisions to avoid regulatory costs prior to a restatement. Secondly, it shows that capital providers demand a higher risk...... premium to compensate for the higher uncertainty following a restatement and that this has material effects on the financial system through higher balance sheet illiquidity and higher contribution to systemic risk....

  15. Public perceptions of energy system risks: some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, K.; Otway, H.J.

    1980-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; perceptions, beliefs and attitudes; the survey of public perceptions and attitudes towards energy systems; attitudes towards the five energy systems (nuclear, coal, oil, solar and hydro); perceptions of energy systems - the underlying dimensions of belief (economic benefits; environmental risk; psychological and physical risk; indirect risk; technology development); differential analysis of the perceptions of those pro and con nuclear energy; summary of perceptions of energy systems - relevance to the Austrian dilemma; policy implications. (U.K.)

  16. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Vieira, Daniela Calazans; Krause, Gilson Galvao

    1999-01-01

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  17. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

  18. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

  19. IMPLEMENTATION OF RISK-MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN ENTERPRISE IN CONDITIONS OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vereshchagina Ganna

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Search approaches to assessment and risk management was one of the priority directions of development of modern enterprises. That is why the study of the formation of enterprise risk management in terms of innovation and development of risk management systems in the enterprise is becoming increasingly relevant. Purpose. The aim of this research is to identify the essence of the concept of «risk» and «risk management», to analyze of risk management functions and existing models of risk management, to generalize of risk management process for further minimization of negative consequences and reduce the probability of occurrence of risks in the process of economic activity of enterprises in terms of innovation. Results. In the article the authors analyzed the main approaches to the definition of the concepts «risk» and «risk management». The main functions of risk management, namely forecasting (planning, organization, control, coordination and motivation, are analyzed, and their main characteristics are given. The combination of the performance of all risk management functions in the context of innovation activity allows us to characterize risk management from the viewpoint of a process management approach as a series of consistent management actions characterized by the following stages of the risk management process: analysis and identification, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative risk assessment, risk control, choice of optimization / avoidance or risk prevention methods, development of a management decision, decision-making, impact on risk, evaluation of results and their correcting. Features of existing risk management models and their distinctive features, as well as the main directions and methods of risk management are considered. Conclusions. It is revealed that the process of risk management includes not only the methods for reducing the risk factors of innovation risk, but also the methods for using the

  20. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PENSION FUNDS WITH FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SERDAR KORUKOĞLU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial rating and ranking firms often use linguistic instead of numerical values. When input data are mostly qualitative and are based on subjective knowledge of experts, the Fuzzy Set Theory provides a solid mathematical model to represent and handle these data. The aim of this study is developing a fuzzy expert model to evaluate the performance of the pension funds by using their risk and return values. The method is used for evaluating the performance of the randomly selected of twenty seven Turkish pension funds. The obtained results proved that the fuzzy expert system is appropriate and consistent for performance evaluation.

  1. Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

    1994-11-01

    This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site

  2. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  3. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  4. Risk communication strategy development using the aerospace systems engineering process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, S.; Sklar, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explains the goals and challenges of NASA's risk communication efforts and how the Aerospace Systems Engineering Process (ASEP) was used to map the risk communication strategy used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to achieve these goals.

  5. Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES), version 4.0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linders JBHJ; Rikken MGJ; Bakker J; Poel P van der; CSR

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the fouth version of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances, USES 4.0. USES 4.0 is an integrated risk assessment system for new and existing substances and agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. The risk assessment system for new and existing substances in

  6. Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

  7. Evaluation of risk of atherosclerosis in Indian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Deepa; Chiplonkar, Shashi; Khadilkar, Anuradha; Kinare, Arun; Khadilkar, Vaman; Divate, Uma

    2013-05-01

    To investigate interrelationship of arterial measurements with metabolic syndrome (MS) components and zinc status in apparently healthy Indian adults. Anthropometry and biochemical data were recorded in 110 men and 139 women (25-50 yr). Carotid Intima media thickness (CIMT), stiffness (beta), pulse wave velocity (PWV), elasticity modulus (Ep), and arterial compliance (AC) of the right carotid artery were evaluated ultrasonically. According to definition of MS, subjects were categorized as MS-1, MS-2, MS-3. Further, normal and MS subjects were divided as zinc sufficient and deficient. In all, 12.1% subjects had 3 risk factors for MS. Mean CIMT, beta, Ep and PWV were significantly higher by 6%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 12.4% in subjects with MS than normal (p < 0.05). AC showed significant decline in MS subjects by only 3% than normal (p < 0.05). Serum zinc was inversely correlated with beta, Ep and PWV in both the genders in subjects with MS (p < 0.05). A synergistic effect of serum zinc deficiency with MS further envisages the elevated risk of arterial stiffness. Risk of atherosclerosis is marked by increase in stiffness parameters even in presence of a single MS risk and zinc deficiency may further aggravate the risk indicating need for early diagnosis.

  8. First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

    2017-01-01

    There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  10. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-04-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  11. The influence of risk awareness on attitudes towards energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, F.; Sachs, S.

    1984-01-01

    The implementation of energy systems needs acceptance by people. Acceptance is influenced by various factors, one of which is the attitude towards energy questions. Attitudes and behavioural intentions can be understood from inference and evaluation processes. Ajzen and Fishbein described this by a model which combines in an additive manner attitudes towards acts and norms to predict behavioural intentions and behaviour. The Fishbein model was used as a base for the simulation model REASON which simulates behavioural intentions. The model needs as input knowledge about the part of the world to be evaluated and values and criteria used to judge the conclusions of the inference process. The program provides as output the scores of the various criteria and accumulated evaluations of the options. In addition, if desired, a protocol of the inference process is available. REASON was applied to various energy-related questions. A detailed concept was developed for the selection of a heating system for a new home. The concept was used to simulate the behavioural intentions of home owners towards the installation of a heating system. Competing heating systems were evaluated by cost, safety, comfort, and environmental criteria as well as expectations of other persons or groups. The results of the simulations were partly compared with empirical data. Sensitivity studies were performed which show the influence of risk criteria (for instance safety of supply, influences on the environment, exploitation of resources, time perspective) combined with other criteria. Time dependent studies show the changing of intentions as a result of changing evaluation criteria and changes in knowledge about the environment. (author)

  12. Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

    2014-01-01

    Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

  13. Petroleum tax systems and risk sharing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunnevaag, K.

    1992-12-01

    We have focused on four different measures of risk, well known from the finance literature, namely sensitivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and finally probability of a negative expected net present value (NPV). While the two first measures show that the state carries most of the risk, the latter measures show the opposite result. Whether or not the project is developed on a stand-alone or on-going basis, has a crucial impact on much risk the company carries. We have also looked at the risk development as a consequence of changes in tax regime. While the two first measures of risk (sensitivity and standard deviation) show an increase in risk for the company from the pre 1987 tax regime to the 1987-1991 tax regime, and a decrease in risk as a consequence of the last change, the opposite is the case when we look at the two last measures of risk, namely coefficient of variation and probability of a negative expected NPV. The same is the conclusion for the state, except that the sign of change is the opposite that of the company. This analysis could have been extended to include a risk concept based on the well known Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is relevant risk, or covariance risk. This model concludes that the return on any risky asset is a function of the correlation between the return on this asset and the market portfolio. In this case only the projects contribution to the portfolio risk should be accounted for. For the Norwegian state it is not unreasonable to assume that the risk contribution of a medium sized oil field to a big portfolio of fields and onshore activities only is marginal. For the national or international oil company it is somewhat less marginal, and for a company developing the field on a stand-alone basis it is substantial. 12 refs., 15 figs

  14. Administrative law risks of the governmental and municipal procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyuzhikov Sergey, A.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the administrative law risks of the Russian system of public procurement. The authors analyze the foregoing risks in the view of the correlation of risk situations, risk actions (omission and administrative law prohibitions. The authors are considering problems of the subject and some other characteristics essential to the administrative offenses in terms of the most systemic risk in this sphere – an information risk. The materials on law practice open to general use generated in more than 25 entities of the Russian Federation were used in the paper while preparing.

  15. Space shuttle main propulsion pressurization system probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plastiras, J.K.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that, in post-Challenger discussions with Congressional Committees and the National Research Council Risk Management Oversight Panel, criticism was levied against NASA because of the inability to prioritize the 1300+ single point failures. In the absence of a ranking it was difficult to determine where special effort was needed in failure evaluation, in design improvement, in management review of problems, and in flight readiness reviews. The belief was that the management system was overwhelmed by the quantity of critical hardware items that were on the Critical Items List (CIL) and that insufficient attention was paid to the items that required it. Congressional staff members from Congressman Markey's committee who have oversight responsibilities in the nuclear industry, and specifically over the nuclear power supplies for NASA's Galileo and Ulysses missions, felt very strongly that the addition of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to the existing Failure Mode Effects Analysis/Hazard Analysis (FMEA/HA) methods was exceedingly important. Specifically, the Markey committee recognized that the inductive, qualitative component-oriented FMEA could be supplemented by the deductive, quantitative systems-oriented PRA. Furthermore, they felt that the PRA approach had matured to the extent that it could be used to assess risk, even with limited shuttle-specific failure data. NASA responded with arguments that the FMEA/HA had illuminated all significant failure modes satisfactorily and that no failure rate data base was available to support the PRA approach

  16. Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Urban wastewater systems should be evaluated and analysed from an integrated point of view, taking all parts of the system, that is sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving waters into consideration. Risk and parameter uncertainties are aspects that hardly ever have been addressed...... in the evaluation and design of urban wastewater systems. In this paper we present and discuss a probabilistic approach for evaluation of the performance of urban wastewater systems. Risk analysis together with the traditional cost-benefit analysis is a special variant of multi-criteria analysis that seeks to find...... the most feasible improvement alternative for an urban wastewater system. The most feasible alternative in this context is the alternative that has the best performance, meaning that the alternative has the lowest sum of costs, benefits and risks. The sum is expressed as the Net Present Cost (NPC). To use...

  17. Tank waste remediation system programmatic risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaver, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    This risk management plan defines the approach to be taken to managing risks in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program. It defines the actions to be taken at the overall program level, and the risk management requirements for lower-level projects and other activities. The primary focus of this plan is on ''programmatic'' risks, i.e., risks with respect to the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the program. The plan defines an approach providing managers with the flexibility to manage risks according to their specific needs, yet creates. The consistency needed for effectiveness across the program. The basic risk management approach uses a risk management list for the program, each project, and additional lower-level activities. The risk management list will be regularly reviewed and updated by appropriate level of management. Each list defines key risks, their likelihood and consequences, risk management actions to be taken, responsible individuals, and other management information

  18. A Complex Systems Perspective of Risk Mitigation and Modeling in Development and Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    current methodologies used in risk assessment are heavily subjective and inaccurate in various life cycle phases of complex engineered systems. The...complexity content of the system. Many of the system’s life cycle risks are currently assessed subjectively by imprecise methodologies such as color...evaluated for multiple entities such as galaxies, stars, planets , plants, animals, societies, and technological systems, and also has been mapped

  19. Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

  20. Evaluation methodologies for security testing biometric systems beyond technological evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández Saavedra, María Belén

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this PhD Thesis is the specification of formal evaluation methodologies for testing the security level achieved by biometric systems when these are working under specific contour conditions. This analysis is conducted through the calculation of the basic technical biometric system performance and its possible variations. To that end, the next two relevant contributions have been developed. The first contribution is the definition of two independent biometric performance ...

  1. Evaluation of real time operating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung

    2006-02-01

    An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies

  2. Modeling a support system for the evaluator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lozano Lima, B.; Ilizastegui Perez, F; Barnet Izquierdo, B.

    1998-01-01

    This work gives evaluators a tool they can employ to give more soundness to their review of operational limits and conditions. The system will establish the most adequate method to carry out the evaluation, as well as to evaluate the basis for technical operational specifications. It also includes the attainment of alternative questions to be supplied to the operating entity to support it in decision-making activities

  3. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  4. Evaluation and Selection of International Supplier, Underscoring Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyed Mohammad Ali Khatami Firouzabadi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the decision making process for import complete manufactured pieces versus import of partial pieces to assemble in Iran, taking into account the risk factors for a manufacturing company. Since this sort of decision making confront with several risks, it is necessary to establish a process for finding the risks associated with this kind of problems in order to decrease the effects of these risks in the process. Since the problem is classified as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM problem, Uncertain Analytical Hierarchy Process (UAHP was used to find the most attractive alternative. Because the alternatives were identified from the first point, a bottom-up procedure was used to organize the hierarchy. In initial stage, the attributes which distinct from the alternatives were obtained by literature review and experts' interviews. Then the attributes were grouped to upper level to establish the criteria. Three criteria were found from this stage. The criteria were product, partners, and environment which they encompassed 12 attributes. Forming the hierarchy and doing the uncertain pairwised comparisons, which considers a range of numbers instead of one single number for declaring the preference between two factors, a Linear Programming (LP model with two types of objective functions were formed for each individual alternative. Each single LP model can express the maximum and minimum value of each individual alternative. The research's results indicate the most appropriate alternative is to import the final product from India. The last preferred one was to import the parts of the final product from India. This study can be a suitable framework in supply chain management and purchasing decisions and risk evaluations because the major parts of manufacturing activities is always to decide about the selection of most preferred strategies for companies.

  5. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  6. Evaluation system of minerals reserve at Nuclebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.; Guerra, P.A.G.; Vinha, C.A.G. da.

    1980-01-01

    The paper describes the methodology used for the reserve evaluation of minerals, particularly of uranium, as used world wide, and specially at Nuclebras. The paper discusses a series of procedures envolving basic definitions, reserve evaluation methods (Conventional, Statistical and Geoestatistical), data management, use of computer systems, classification of reserves as well as the results achieved [pt

  7. Environmental and social risk evaluation of overseas investment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruilian; Andam, Francis; Shi, Guoqing

    2017-06-01

    Along with the further implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative and the promotion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the construction of the CPEC will likely face challenges owing to differences between China and Pakistan in politics, economics, culture, religion, language, customs, environmental management systems, environmental protection laws, social management systems, and social management regulations. To address potential environmental and social risks associated with Chinese enterprises as they invest in the CPEC region, this paper examines previous studies addressing topics such as the environmental and social safeguards of international institutions and Pakistan's domestic environmental and social management requirements. We then systematically identify the environmental and social risk factors involved in CPEC construction, which cover risks regarding water, air, soil, noise, biodiversity, politics, economics, culture, technology, and individuals. By establishing and calculating these risks and using a multi-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we found that noise and individual risks belong to a medium risk category, while others belong to a higher risk category. In view of these risks, the Chinese government must create a friendly and peaceful environment for Chinese enterprises to invest in the CPEC region, and Chinese enterprises must adopt a development strategy of strength and capacity building and establish enterprises capable of addressing environmental and social issues during the investment process. All stakeholders must understand that if no determined and diligent steps are taken, CPEC construction might be doomed for failure from the start.

  8. PRISIM - a plant risk status information management system for NRC inspectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, H.J.; Glynn, J.C.; Campbell, D.J.

    1987-01-01

    The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) is a microcomputer program that presents results of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and related informations, for use by USNRC decisionmakers. Plant-specific PRISIMs have been developed for three nuclear plants in the United States. The usefulness of PRISIM for these plants is now under evaluation, and an improved PRISIM is being developed. (orig./HSCH)

  9. Overview and Demonstration of USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System is a data gathering and analysis platform for conducting material disposal and beneficial use assessments. Users can evaluate risks to human and ecological receptors associated with exposures to organic and inorganic chemi...

  10. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  11. Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee

    2018-05-09

    Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.

  12. Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrogeological risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazia Di Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1 extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2 outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels. The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

  13. Risk assessment of electric generation systems with high wind penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salgado Duarte, Yorlandys; Castillo Serpa, Alfredo M. del

    2017-01-01

    The research evaluates the risk function of an Electric Generation System (SGE) with high wind power penetration using the Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) method, which allows calculating indicators that characterize the performance of the SGE with expected average values. The research uses a Markov model of two states or four states according to the characteristics of the generator to simulate the instantaneous capacity. The primary sources of each conventional generator are assumed to be always available; however, wind power depends on the wind behavior in each analyzed region. In this research, the Chronological Series and Weibull models are used to model the wind behavior, and the analyzes are performed in the IEEE-RTS system. The work shows that the behavior of the probabilistic indicators used to analyze the static capacity of the SGE is determined by the model used to simulate the stochastic of the generators and by the primary energy source. (author)

  14. Benefit-risk evaluation of mammographic mass screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Nobuo; Ogura, Toshihiro

    1990-01-01

    This study evaluated the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening by using survival rates from 3000 breast cancer patients at the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research Institute Hospital. Because the number of participants in mammographic mass screening was small, asymptomatic patients with pathologically proven early breast cancer were categorized as the screenee group. Symptomatic patients were categorized as the patient group. Survival rates were compared in both the screenee and the patient groups. Based on the difference in areas of survival curves between screenees and patients, the ratio of person-year gain (PYG) to person-year lost (PYL) was obtained. The ratio of PYG to PYL was multiplied by the detection rate resulting from a particular screening program to obtain the benefit/risk ratio. The detection rate of nonpalpable breast cancer was 15 times higher in the screenee group than the patient group. Breast cancer was detected in 7 (0.85%) of 824 patients in the screenee group. Even when mammographic mass screening was started at the age of 30, the benefit of mammography was far superior to the risk. The number of participants in mass screening stratified by age may be required for the conclusion of the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening. (N.K.)

  15. Automatic system for evaluation of ionizing field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pimenta, N.L.; Calil, S.J.

    1992-01-01

    A three-dimensional cartesian manipulator for evaluating the ionizing field and able to position a ionization chamber in any point of the space is developed. The control system is made using a IBM microcomputer. The system aimed the study of isodose curves from ionizing sources, verifying the performance of radiotherapeutic equipment. (C.G.C.)

  16. Expected energy production evaluation for photovoltaic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Østergaard, Jacob; Peng, Wang

    2011-01-01

    A photovoltaic (PV) system consists of many solar panels, which are connected in series, parallel or a combination of both. Energy production for the PV system with various configurations is different. In this paper, a methodology is developed to evaluate and analyze the expected energy production...

  17. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  18. HUD INFORMATION SYSTEMS: Immature Software Acquisition Capability Increases Project Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... GAO has designated HUD's major program areas as high risk, in part because the department's information and financial management systems were poorly integrated, ineffective, and generally unreliable...

  19. Multidimensional evaluation on FR cycle systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakai, Ryodai; Fujii, Sumio; Takakuma, Katsuyuki; Katoh, Atsushi; Ono, Kiyoshi; Ohtaki, Akira; Shiotani, Hiroki

    2004-01-01

    This report explains some results of the multidimensional evaluation on various fast reactor cycle system concepts from an interim report of the 2nd phase of ''Feasibility Study on Commercialized FR Cycle System''. This method is designed to give more objective and more quantitative evaluations to clarify commercialized system candidate concepts. Here we brief current evaluation method from the five viewpoints of safety, economy, environment, resource and non-proliferation, with some trial evaluation results for some cycles consist of promising technologies in reactor, core and fuel, reprocessing and fuel manufacture. Moreover, we describe FR cycle deployment scenarios which describe advantages and disadvantages of the cycles from the viewpoints of uranium resource and radioactive waste based on long-term nuclear material mass flow analyses and advantages of the deployment of FR cycle itself from the viewpoints of the comparison with alternative power supplies as well as cost and benefit. (author)

  20. Evaluation of pipeline leak detection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glauz, W.D.; Flora, J.D.; Hennon, G.J.

    1993-01-01

    Leaking underground storage tank system presents an environmental concern and a potential health hazard. It is well known that leaks in the piping associated with these systems account for a sizeable fraction of the leaks. EPA has established performance standards for pipeline leak detection systems, and published a document presenting test protocols for evaluating these systems against the standards. This paper discusses a number of facets and important features of evaluating such systems, and presents results from tests of several systems. The importance of temperature differences between the ground and the product in the line is shown both in theory and with test data. The impact of the amount of soil moisture present is addressed, along with the effect of frozen soil. These features are addressed both for line tightness test systems, which must detect leaks of 0.10 gal/h (0.38 L/h) at 150% of normal line pressure, or 0.20 gal/h (0.76 L/h) at normal line pressure, and for automatic line leak detectors that must detect leaks of 3 gal/h (11 L/h) at 10 psi (69 kPa) within an hour of the occurrence of the leak. This paper also addresses some statistical aspects of the evaluation of these systems. Reasons for keeping the evaluation process ''blind'' to the evaluated company are given, along with methods for assuring that the tests are blind. Most importantly, a test procedure is presented for evaluating systems that report a flow rate (not just a pass/fail decision) that is much more efficient than the procedure presented in the EPA protocol, and is just as stringent

  1. Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

    2008-01-01

    The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)

  2. Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

  3. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  4. Patient Doses and Risk Evaluation in Bone Mineral Densitometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelucci, M.; Borio, R.; Chiocchini, S.; Degli Esposti, P.; Dipilato, A.C.; Policani, G.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work was to evaluate the equipment dose to the organs and tissues and the effective dose of patients undergoing the most frequent examinations carried out in bone mineral densitometry (BMD): lumbar spine and femur. Experimental measurements of absorbed doses on a Rando phantom, allow comparison of the performances of three different photon emitter facilities. The comparison of the entrance and exit doses measured on a Rando phantom and on 50 female non-obese patients show that entrance doses on Rando can be used as 'diagnostic reference levels' for patients. A quantitative estimate of the stochastic risk due to BMD procedures was made: the results obtained show that the stochastic risk is very low and that the BMD is, at present, the most confirmed procedure for osteoporosis diagnosis and management. (author)

  5. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  6. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  7. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  8. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc; Bomfim, Joao A S

    2011-01-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  9. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scislewski, Alexandro [Brazilian Nuclear Energy Comission (CNEN), Avenida Santana, 680, Centro, Caetite-Bahia, 46400-000 (Brazil); Zuddas, Pierpaolo [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris-Sorbonne, ISTEP place Jussieu, Tour 56-55, case 116, F75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2013-07-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  10. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scislewski, Alexandro; Zuddas, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  11. Evaluation of radiation risk and work practices during cerebral interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingstone, Roshan S; Raghuram, L; Korah, Ipeson P; Raj, D Victor [Department of Radiodiagnosis, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004 (India)

    2003-09-01

    This study was intended to evaluate radiation risk to patients during cerebral interventions and the contribution to this risk from work practices. Thirty nine patients undergoing cerebral interventions in a digital subtraction angiography suite were included in this study. Patients who underwent cerebral interventions were categorised into two groups according to the number of cerebral interventions performed on them, and their effective doses were calculated. The effective dose for patients undergoing a single cerebral intervention (group A) varied from 1.55 to 15.9 mSv and for multiple cerebral interventions (group B) varied from 16.52 to 43.52 mSv. Two patients who underwent multiple cerebral interventions (group B) had alopecia of the irradiated scalp.

  12. Evaluation of Postural Stability and Fall Risk in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Inanir

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influences of Ankylosing spondylitis on postural balance and the risk of falls. Methods: A total of 73 sobjects were recruited for the study, including 36 with AS (17 men, 19 women and 37 healthy controls (19 men, 18 women. Patients were evaluated in terms of balance and risk of falls. Balance and risk of falls was assessed with the Biodex Stability System. Results: The mean age, gender and body mass index of the participants did not differ significantly between (p=0.308, p=0.724, p=0.766, respectively. When groups were evaluated in terms of postural stability indexes Overall Stability Index (OSI, Antero-Posteior Stability Index (APSI and Medio-Lateral Stability Index (MLSI had no statistically significant difference (p=0.190, p=0.437 ve p=0.144, respectively. Fall Risk Index (FRI evaluations showed that as patients’ test scores were higher than control group (p=0.001. (Table 1. Conclusions: In this study, we present numerical data that suggests that AS are associated with risk of falling. [Cukurova Med J 2013; 38(1.000: 86-91

  13. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  14. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  15. Ensuring system security through formal software evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howell, J A; Fuyat, C [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Elvy, M [Marble Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1992-01-01

    With the increasing use of computer systems and networks to process safeguards information in nuclear facilities, the issue of system and data integrity is receiving worldwide attention. Among the many considerations are validation that the software performs as intended and that the information is adequately protected. Such validations are often requested of the Safeguards Systems Group of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. This paper describes our methodology for performing these software evaluations.

  16. An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M.

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: 210 Po; 226 Ra and 241 Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like 137 Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

  17. Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Risk Taking Interact to Predict Left-Frontal EEG Asymmetry

    OpenAIRE

    Black, Chelsea L.; Goldstein, Kim E.; LaBelle, Denise R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

    2014-01-01

    The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relat...

  18. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

  19. Audit of psychosocial risk management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Anne Helbo; Hasle, Peter; Hohnen, Pernille

    2014-01-01

    organizations on how to manage risks. Internal and external audits of compliance with the standard are key elements. Auditors should be competent to carry out the task and be familiar with risks of the areas they are auditing. The competences and practice of internal auditors have been studied...... in two Danish municipalities. The results show that auditors have a varied background and a limited knowledge about psychosocial risks. They have difficulties in carrying out audits and the results are mainly influenced by personal preferences....

  20. Serious reform starts with a systemic risk tax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2010-01-01

    The recent IMF report to the G20 states that fiscal reforms are essential to recover the costs of the crisis, as well as to contain future risk creation. This column argues that progress on controlling future risk requires a direct tax on systemic risk. This would restore confidence in the ability