A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

2017-08-01

Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

African Journals Online (AJOL)

On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

2010-11-01

The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

RISK MANAGEMENT IN A LARGE-SCALE NEW RAILWAY TRANSPORT SYSTEM PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunduck D. SUH, Ph.D., P.E.

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Risk management experiences of the Korean Seoul-Pusan high-speed railway (KTX project since the planning stage are evaluated. One can clearly see the interplay of engineering and construction risks, financial risks and political risks in the development of the KTX project, which is the peculiarity of large-scale new railway system projects. A brief description on evaluation methodology and overview of the project is followed by detailed evaluations on key differences in risks between conventional railway system and high-speed railway system, social and political risks, engineering and construction risks, and financial risks. Risks involved in system procurement process, such as proposal solicitation, evaluation, selection, and scope of solicitation are separated out and evaluated in depth. Detailed events resulting from these issues are discussed along with their possible impact on system risk. Lessons learned and further possible refinements are also discussed.

Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

2004-01-01

In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia MÂRŢU

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict clinical and paraclinical examinations, on establishing the inflammation indices and the periodontal diagnosis. Results: The main cause of the analysis was gingival ble‐ eding; an increased number of smokers was registered among the patients. Out of the local factors, especially important were edentations and malocclusions. Also, a higher number of aggressive generalized periodontites has been noticed. Discussion: The forms of the periodontal diseases are obviously influenced by the systemic context, while the forms of localized chronic periodontitis associa‐ ted with generalized chronic gingivitis reflect the role pla‐ yed by the local risk factors. Conclusions: Stress and smoking represent significant risk factors in the installation of periodontal pathology, with a really alarming preva‐ lence. The aggressive forms of periodontitis showed a higher frequency than that recorded in literature.

Coastal risk forecast system

Science.gov (United States)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-04-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Coastal risk forecast system

Science.gov (United States)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-03-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

2008-10-01

Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

1975-01-01

A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

Modified risk evaluation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

1993-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0. Volume 5, Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) tutorial manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) primarily for nuclear power plants. This volume is the tutorial manual for the Systems Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 5.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a open-quotes familyclose quotes [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons is provided that guides the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis capabilities

A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Khashman, Adnan

2009-08-01

Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-01-01

The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol

2008-01-01

Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

1992-01-01

The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

Science.gov (United States)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerman, J.

2005-01-01

The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirin Snežana

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

1985-03-01

The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

Risk evaluation of the alternate-3A modification to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR-4, MARK-II power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Karol, R.; Shiu, K.

1983-01-01

The authors present a risk evaluation of the ATWS Alternate 3A modification proposed by NRC staff in NUREG-0460 to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR nuclear power plant. The evaluation is done relative to three risk indices: the frequency of core damage, the expected early fatalities, and the expected latent fatalities. The ATWS prevention tree includes: the mechanical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the electrical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the recirculation pump trip and the Alternate Rod Insertion System. The mitigation tree includes: standby liquid control system, opening of the relief valves, reclosing the relief valves, failure of coolant injection, inadvertent actuation of the automatic depressurization system, inadvertent operation of high-pressure injection system and containment heat removal

Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

Science.gov (United States)

Ott, C. Mark

2009-01-01

The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres Valle, A.

1996-01-01

The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, Adam David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mohagheghi, Amir H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cohn, Brian [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Osborn, Douglas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Katherine A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); DeMenno, Mercy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Maikael A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Ethan Rutledge [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Mancel Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeantete, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-09-01

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

Evaluation System for Pesticides (ESPE). 1. Agricultural pesticides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Emans HJB; Beek MA; Linders JBHJ

1992-01-01

In this report a risk assessment or evaluation system for agricultural pesticides is presented, which estimates the hazards for man and environment resulting from the use of these pesticides. The evaluation system has also been placed within the context of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of

Collaborative Management of Risks and Complexity in Banking Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion IVAN

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes types of risks encountered in banking systems and ways to prevent and eliminate them. Banking systems are presented in order to have a view on banking activities and processes that generates risks. The risks in banking processes are analyzed and the collaborative character of risk management is highlighted. A way to control the risk in banking systems through information security is described. Risks arise from system complexity, thus evaluation and comparison of different configurations are bases for improvements. The Halstead relative complexity function synthesizes system complexity from the point of view of the size of the variables analyzed and the heterogeneity between the variables. Section four was realized by Catalin SBORA.

[Multicriteria evaluation of environmental risk exposure using a geographic information system in Argentina].

Science.gov (United States)

Pietri, Diana De; Dietrich, Patricia; Mayo, Patricia; Carcagno, Alejandro

2011-10-01

Develop a spatial model that includes environmental factors posing a health hazard, for application in the Matanza-Riachuelo River Basin (MRB) in Argentina. Multicriteria evaluation procedures were used with geographic information systems to obtain territorial zoning based on the degree of suitability for residence. Variables that characterize the habitability of housing and potential sources of basin pollution were geographically referenced. Health information was taken from the Risk Factor Survey (RFS) to measure the relative risk of living in unsuitable areas (exposed population) compared with suitable areas (unexposed population). Sixty percent of the MRB area is in suitable condition, a situation that affects 40% of residents. The rest of the population lives in unsuitable territory, and 6% live in the basin's most unsuitable conditions. Environmental conditions that are detrimental to health in the unsuitable areas became evident during the interviews through three of the pathologies considered: diarrheal diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancer. A regional analysis that provides valid information to support decisionmaking was obtained. Considering the basin as a unit of analysis allowed the use of a single protocol to undertake comprehensive measurement of the magnitude of risk and, thus, set priorities.

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, B.H.

1998-01-01

This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abas Nor Haslinda

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo-Fu Wang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Geographic International System (GIS. Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

Evaluation of Environmental Risk Due to Metro System Construction in Jinan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guo-Fu; Lyu, Hai-Min; Shen, Jack Shuilong; Lu, Lin-Hai; Li, Gang; Arulrajah, Arul

2017-09-25

Jinan is a famous spring city in China. Construction of underground metro system may block groundwater seepage, inducing the depletion risk of springs. This paper presents an assessment of the risk due to metro line construction to groundwater in Jinan City using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic International System (GIS). Based on the characteristics of hydrogeology and engineering geology, the assessment model is established from the perspectives of surface index and underground index. The assessment results show that the high and very high risk levels of surface index exceed 98% in the north region; and high and very high risk levels of underground index exceed 56% in urban center and southern region. The assessment result also shows that about 14% of the urban area belongs to very high risk level; regions of high risk are 20% in urban area, 9% in Changqing County and 43% in Pingyin County. In the high risk region, metro lines R1 to R3, which are under construction, and metro lines L1 to L5, which are planned, have very high and high risk. Therefore, risk control measures are proposed to protect the groundwater seepage path to spring.

Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Li, Wenyuan

2014-01-01

Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

2005-01-01

Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

2015-05-01

Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

1985-08-01

This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C.S.

1979-01-01

A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems for policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotte, E.U.

1984-01-01

The social compatibility of future energy scenarios is analysed in order to improve the political decision making. Social compatibility analysis is a form of technology assessment focusing on societal and social issues. The value tree analysis method is applied to collect and structure the values and concerns of important societal groups. Nine relevant groups and organizations in the society of the Federal Republic of Germany are included in the study. A combined value tree is formed by integration of the individual value trees. The overall value tree is transformed into an operational and systematic catalogue of criteria. Measurement instructions and scales are introduced as indicators for the extended risk and benefit evaluation of energy systems. The assessment of specified future energy options is performed by selected scientific experts. The results can improve the political decision-making process with respect to societal needs and desires. (author)

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

2017-01-01

We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengxin Fan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

1994-03-01

In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiyao Tang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia-Zhong Zheng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Axel C. Mühlbacher

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hayama Imazu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

REXS : A financial risk diagnostic expert system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Richter

2012-01-01

Full Text Available

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Artificial intelligence techniques are rapidly emerging as important contributors to more effective management. One of the greatest growth areas probably lies in the use of Expert System methodology for supporting managerial decision processes.
Existing Decision Support Systems often attempt to apply analytical techniques in combination with traditional data access and retrieval functions. One of the problems usually encountered while developing such decision support systems is the need to transform an unstructured problem environment into a structured analytical model. Using an expert system approach to strategic decision making in such unstructured problem environments may provide significant advantages.
The financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS concentrates on Financial Risk Analysis. Based on a Forecasting Model the system will, with the support of several expert system knowledge bases, attempt to evaluate the financial risk of a business and provide guidelines for improvement.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnieke gebaseer op Kunsmatige Intelligensie toon tans die belofte om belangrike bydraes te maak tot meerBestaande Besluitsteunstelsels poog dikwels om analitiese tegnieke en lradisionele datatoegang- en onttrekkingsfunksies te kombineer. Een van die probleme wat gewoonlik ondervind word gedurende die ontwikkeling van '0 besluitsteunstelsel bestaan uit die behoefte om 'n ongestruktueerde probleemomgewing te transformeer na 'n gestruktueerde analitiese model. 'n Ekspertstelselbenadering lot strategiese besluitneming in 'n ongeSlruktureerde probleemomgewing mag betekenisvolle voordele inhou.
Die "financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS" konsentreer op fmansiele risiko-analise. Uitgaande vanaf 'n Vooruitskattingsmode~ en deur gebruik te maak van verskeie ekspertstelselkennisbasisse, poog die stelsel om die fmansiele risiko van 'n onderneming te evalueer en riglyne vir moontlike verbetering

Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

1993-01-01

Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcin Szpyrka

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

Construction of a risk assessment system for chemical residues in agricultural products.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Shinai; Hong, Jiyeon; Lee, Dayeon; Paik, Minkyoung

2014-01-01

Continuous monitoring of chemical residues in agricultural and food products has been performed by various government bodies in South Korea. These bodies have made attempts to systematically manage this information by creating a monitoring database system as well as a system based on these data with which to assess the health risk of chemical residues in agricultural products. Meanwhile, a database system is being constructed consisting of information about monitoring and, following this, a demand for convenience has led to the need for an evaluation tool to be constructed with the data processing system. Also, in order to create a systematic and effective tool for the risk assessment of chemical residues in foods and agricultural products, various evaluation models are being developed, both domestically and abroad. Overseas, systems such as Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model: Food Commodity Intake Database and Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System are being used; these use the US Environmental Protection Agency as a focus, while the EU has developed Pesticide Residue Intake Model for assessments of pesticide exposure through food intake. Following this, the National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS) created the Agricultural Products Risk Assessment System (APRAS) which supports the use and storage of monitoring information and risk assessments. APRAS efficiently manages the monitoring data produced by NAAS and creates an extraction feature included in the database system. Also, the database system in APRAS consists of a monitoring database system held by the NAAS and food consumption database system. Food consumption data is based on Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This system is aimed at exposure and risk assessments for chemical residues in agricultural products with regards to different exposure scenarios.

Models of evaluating efficiency and risks on integration of cloud-base IT-services of the machine-building enterprise: a system approach

Science.gov (United States)

Razumnikov, S.; Kurmanbay, A.

2016-04-01

The present paper suggests a system approach to evaluation of the effectiveness and risks resulted from the integration of cloud-based services in a machine-building enterprise. This approach makes it possible to estimate a set of enterprise IT applications and choose the applications to be migrated to the cloud with regard to specific business requirements, a technological strategy and willingness to risk.

Tank waste remediation system risk management list

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collard, L.B.

1995-01-01

The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it's subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists

Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

2018-03-01

Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risk informed inservice inspection evaluation of the ComEd nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Hutchinson, J.J.

2000-01-01

In November, 1999 Commonwealth Edison Company began the largest scope project yet performed to implement risk informed in-service inspection programs for piping systems. A contractor team led by ERIN Engineering and Research was selected to perform full scope risk informed evaluations on ten reactor units at five sites including 3 BWR and 2 PWR stations. This risk informed evaluation has applied a number of advancements to RISI technology in key areas including risk quantification of inspection program changes, element selection, treatment of multiple damage mechanisms at a given location, and in streamlining an approach to RISI initially developed by EPRI. The scope of the evaluation covered more than 18,000 ASME Class 1 and 2 welds not counting those that will continue to be inspected as part of augmented programs for flow accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and service water systems. When the current ASME Section XI based exams are replaced by the risk informed program, while some new inspection locations will be added, substantial cost savings and person-rem exposures are projected from the elimination of most of the current exams. ComEd expects to recover its investment in the RISI evaluation for each of the 10 reactor units in 1 to 2 refueling outages, from the cost savings of reduced inspections. At the same time, the risk of a severe accident due to pipe ruptures is not expected to exhibit significant changes. (author)

The use of intelligent systems for risk management in software projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana A. Gushchina

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The article identifies the main risks of a software project, examines the use of different types of intelligent systems in the risk management process for software projects, discusses the basic methods used for process estimation and forecasting in the field of software engineering, identifies currently used empty expert systems, software systems for analysis and risk management of software projects. Materials and Methods: The author describes the peculiarities of risk management in the field of software engineering with involvement of intelligent systems. The intelligent techniques allow solving the control task with expert precision without the involvement of human experts. Results: The result of this work: – identification of the key risks of a software project (tax, legal, financial and commercial risks, IT risks, personnel risks, risks related to competitors, suppliers, marketing and demand and market; – investigation of the current, applied to risk management of software system projects, artificial intelligence, particularly expert systems and software tools for evaluation of the process results; – identification of the most popular empty expert systems (Clips, G2 and Leonardo and software products of the analysis of large databases (Orange, Weka, Rattle GUI, Apache Mahout, SCaViS, RapidMiner, Databionic ESOM Tools, ELKI, KNIME, Pandas and UIMA; – consideration of the cluster, correlation, regression, factor and dispersion analysis methods for the estimation and prediction of the processes of software engineering. Discussion and Conclusions: The results show the feasibility of the application of various intelligent systems in the risk management process. The analysis of methods of evaluating risks and the tendency of their application in the modern systems of intellectual analysis can serve as a start point for creating a unified system of risk management for software projects of medium and high complexity with a

Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

2002-01-01

Urban wastewater systems should be evaluated and analysed from an integrated point of view, taking all parts of the system, that is sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving waters into consideration. Risk and parameter uncertainties are aspects that hardly ever have been addressed...... in the evaluation and design of urban wastewater systems. In this paper we present and discuss a probabilistic approach for evaluation of the performance of urban wastewater systems. Risk analysis together with the traditional cost-benefit analysis is a special variant of multi-criteria analysis that seeks to find...... the most feasible improvement alternative for an urban wastewater system. The most feasible alternative in this context is the alternative that has the best performance, meaning that the alternative has the lowest sum of costs, benefits and risks. The sum is expressed as the Net Present Cost (NPC). To use...

Evaluation of severe accident safety system value based on averting financial risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatch, S.W.; Benjamin, A.S.; Bennett, P.R.

1983-01-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to benchmark the risks from nuclear power plants and to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of severe accident safety features. This paper describes the program in general and presents some preliminary results. These results include estimates of the financial risks associated with the operation of six reference plants and the value of severe accident prevention and mitigation safety systems in averting these risks. The results represent initial calculations and will be iterated before being used to support NRC decisions

Indoor exposure to particles emitted by biomass-burning heating systems and evaluation of dose and lung cancer risk received by population.

Science.gov (United States)

Stabile, L; Buonanno, G; Avino, P; Frattolillo, A; Guerriero, E

2018-04-01

Homes represent a critical microenvironment in terms of air quality due to the proximity to main particle sources and the lack of proper ventilation systems. Biomass-fed heating systems are still extensively used worldwide, then likely emitting a significant amount of particles in indoor environments. Nonetheless, research on biomass emissions are limited to their effects on outdoor air quality then not properly investigating the emission in indoor environments. To this purpose, the present paper aims to evaluate the exposure to different airborne particle metrics (including both sub- and super-micron particles) and attached carcinogenic compounds in dwellings where three different heating systems were used: open fireplaces, closed fireplaces and pellet stoves. Measurements in terms of particle number, lung-deposited surface area, and PM fraction concentrations were measured during the biomass combustion activities, moreover, PM 10 samples were collected and chemically analyzed to obtain mass fractions of carcinogenic compounds attached onto particles. Airborne particle doses received by people exposed in such environments were evaluated as well as their excess lung cancer risk. Most probable surface area extra-doses received by people exposed to open fireplaces on hourly basis (56 mm 2  h -1 ) resulted one order of magnitude larger than those experienced for exposure to closed fireplaces and pellet stoves. Lifetime extra risk of Italian people exposed to the heating systems under investigation were larger than the acceptable lifetime risk (10 -5 ): in particular, the risk due to the open fireplace (8.8 × 10 -3 ) was non-negligible when compared to the overall lung cancer risk of typical Italian population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2011-06-01

Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

Evaluation of air pollution-related risks for Austrian mountain forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smidt, Stefan; Herman, Friedl

2004-01-01

The present paper describes air pollution status and evaluation of risks related to effects of phytotoxic pollutants in the Austrian mountain forests. The results are based on Austrian networks (Forest Inventory, Forest Damage Monitoring System, Austrian Bioindicator Grid), the Austrian sample plots of the European networks of the UN-ECE (ICP Forests, Level I and Level II) and interdisciplinary research approaches. Based on the monitoring data and on modelling and mapping of Critical Thresholds, the evaluation of risk factors was possible. Cause-effect relationships between air pollution and tree responses were shown by tree-physiological measurements. Sulfur impact, proton and lead input, concentrations of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen input and ozone were evaluated. The risk was demonstrated at a regional and large-scale national level. Especially the increasing O 3 level and the accumulation of Pb with altitude present most serious risk for mountain forests. - Despite strong reduction of emissions in Europe, pollutants are still a potential stress factor, especially for sensitive mountain forest ecosystems in Austria

Presenting a Framework for Evaluating and Prioritizing Risk of Information Technology Outsourcing: Perspective of Experts in Information Systems Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

abbas Keramati

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Information technology outsourcing projects have advantages including: reduced costs, improved service quality, creation of competitive advantage, etc. When these projects are being outsourced, lack of attention to their risks causes the lost of anticipated benefits and contributes to failure. As for the growing trend of information technology outsourcing projects in Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the risks of information technology outsourcing projects, evaluate and prioritize them based on the perspective of experts in information systems design. For achieving these goals, key articles were reviewed and comprehensive list of 12 risk factors were identified. For prioritizing, a Fuzzy Analytical Network Process (F-ANP structure has been provided and the risk factors were laid in it. Then, by using a questionnaire, 13 experts' viewpoints were collected. The results show that the factor of "supplier" and the sub-factor of "Lack of skills of supplier in IT operations" are the most important factors for success and failure of information technology outsourcing projects in the perspective of experts in information systems design.

Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

OpenAIRE

Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

Milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia--an evaluation of parameters on incidence risk, diagnosis, risk factors and biological effects as input for a decision support system for disease control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Houe, H; Østergaard, S; Thilsing-Hansen, T

2001-01-01

The present review analyses the documentation on incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects of milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia. It is hereby evaluated whether the existing documentation seems sufficient for further modelling in a decision support system for selection of a control...... concerning incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects seems sufficient for a systematic inclusion in a decision support system. A model on milk fever should take into consideration the variation in biological data and individual herd characteristics. The inclusion of subclinical hypocalcaemia would...... of risk factors is outlined. The clinical symptoms of milk fever are highly specific and the disease level may thus be determined from recording of treatments. Diagnosis of subclinical hypocalcaemia needs to include laboratory examinations or it may be determined by multiplying the incidence of milk fever...

FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

2013-03-01

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, J.M.

1982-03-01

Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

Comprehensive Evaluation of Altered Systemic Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-01

09/08/15-08/31/19 0.96 cal. mo. NIH/NCI $168,300 A prospective investigation of the oral microbiome and pancreatic cancer 1.To perform a...and BWHS. 2.To evaluate racial differences in the oral microbiome using 165 AA and 165 EA controls (from the SCCS only), and to identify any racial...risk factors for pancreatic cancer (cigarette smoking, obesity, red meat and processed meat consumption, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes) and oral

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA), Version 4.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Stewart, H.D.; Wood, S.T.

1992-02-01

This NUREG is the reference manual for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. The SARA data base contains PRA data for the dominant accident sequences of a family and descriptive information about the family including event trees, fault trees, and system model diagrams. The number of facility data bases that can be accessed is limited only by the amount of disk storage available. To simulate changes to family systems, SARA users change the failure rates of initiating and basic events and/or modify the structure of the cut sets that make up the event trees, fault trees, and systems. The user then evaluates the effects of these changes through the recalculation of the resultant accident sequence probabilities and importance measures. The results are displayed in tables and graphs

A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

1978-01-01

Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES), version 4.0

OpenAIRE

Linders JBHJ; Rikken MGJ; Bakker J; van der Poel P; CSR

2002-01-01

This report describes the fouth version of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances, USES 4.0. USES 4.0 is an integrated risk assessment system for new and existing substances and agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. The risk assessment system for new and existing substances in USES 4.0 is fully equivalent to EUSES 1.00, the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances. USES is a decision-support system to be used by central governments, research institutes and t...

Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinsoo Shin

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

Microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vinneraas, B.; Nordin, A. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Biometry and Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, C. [Swedish Inst. for Infectious Disease Control, Dept. of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, Solna (Sweden)

2007-12-15

The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas have raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of biogas upgrading systems were sampled and cultured for microbial content. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas correspond to the densities in sampled natural gas. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e. g. cookers and refueling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (orig.)

EMCAS, an evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eggers, R.F.; Giese, E.W.; Bichl, F.J.

1987-01-01

EMCAS is an evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems. It provides a score card of projected or actual system performance for several areas of system operation. In one area, the performance of material control and accounting and security systems, which jointly defend against the insider threat to divert or steal special nuclear material (SNM) using stealth and deceit, is evaluated. Time-dependent and time-independent risk equations are used for both diversion and theft risk calculations. In the case of loss detection by material accounting, a detailed timeliness model is provided to determine the combined effects of loss detection sensitivity and timeliness on the overall effectiveness of the material accounting detection procedure. Calculated risks take into account the capabilities of process area containment/surveillance, material accounting mass balance tests, and physical protection barriers and procedures. In addition, EMCAS evaluates the Material Control and Accounting (MCandA) System in the following areas: (1) system capability to detect errors in the official book inventory of SNM, using mass balance accounting methods, (2) system capability to prevent errors from entering the nuclear material data base during periods of operation between mass balance tests, (3) time to conduct inventories and resolve alarms, and (4) time lost from production to carry out material control and accounting loss detection activities

The enterprise-wide risk management system of CNNC Lanzhou Uranium Enrichment Co., Ltd

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Yinliang; Li Xuehong; Zhao Zhifu

2010-01-01

This paper targeted at the enterprise-wide risk management system of CNNC Lanzhou uranium enrichment co., Ltd., combining the Central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines document, outlining the main content of the overall risk management system on target, structure, process, strategy, internal control, information and culture. And it provides specific measures in evaluation and monitoring to enhance the total risk management system of CNNC Lanzhou uranium co, ltd on the basis of following the principles of total risk management system. and provides proper insurance for the overall target of risk management. (authors)

Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

1998-01-01

textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

Development of the Connecticut Airway Risk Evaluation (CARE) system to improve handoff communication in pediatric patients with tracheotomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrason Hughes, Amy; Murray, Nicole; Valdez, Tulio A; Kelly, Raeanne; Kavanagh, Katherine

2014-01-01

National attention has focused on the importance of handoffs in medicine. Our practice during airway patient handoffs is to communicate a patient-specific emergency plan for airway reestablishment; patients who are not intubatable by standard means are at higher risk for failure. There is currently no standard classification system describing airway risk in tracheotomized patients. To introduce and assess the interrater reliability of a simple airway risk classification system, the Connecticut Airway Risk Evaluation (CARE) system. We created a novel classification system, the CARE system, based on ease of intubation and the need for ventilation: group 1, easily intubatable; group 2, intubatable with special equipment and/or maneuvers; group 3, not intubatable. A "v" was appended to any group number to indicate the need for mechanical ventilation. We performed a retrospective medical chart review of patients aged 0 to 18 years who were undergoing tracheotomy at our tertiary care pediatric hospital between January 2000 and April 2011. INTERVENTIONS Each patient's medical history, including airway disease and means of intubation, was reviewed by 4 raters. Patient airways were separately rated as CARE groups 1, 2, or 3, each group with or without a v appended, as appropriate, based on the available information. After the patients were assigned to an airway group by each of the 4 raters, the interrater reliability was calculated to determine the ease of use of the rating system. We identified complete data for 155 of 169 patients (92%), resulting in a total of 620 ratings. Based on the patient's ease of intubation, raters categorized tracheotomized patients into group 1 (70%, 432 of 620); group 2 (25%, 157 of 620); or group 3 (5%, 29 of 620), each with a v appended if appropriate. The interrater reliability was κ = 0.95. We propose an airway risk classification system for tracheotomized patients, CARE, that has high interrater reliability and is easy to use and

Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher L Cummings

Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-01

WSTAT). In the early stages of the V&V for development risk, it was discovered that the original risk rating and methodology did not actually...4932 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT ...WSTA has opened trade space exploration by allowing the tool to evaluate trillions of potential system configurations to then return a handful of

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

EMCAS: An evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eggers, R.F.; Giese, E.W.; Bichl, F.J.

1987-01-01

EMCAS is an evaluation methodology for safeguards and security systems. It provides a score card of projected or actual system performance for several areas of system operation. In one area, the performance of material control and accounting and security systems, which jointly defend against the insider threat to divert or steal special nuclear material (SNM) using stealth and deceit, is evaluated. Time-dependent and time-independent risk equations are used for both diversion and theft risk calculations. In the case of loss detection by material accounting, a detailed timeliness model is provided to determine the combined effects of loss detection sensitivity and timeliness on the overall effectiveness of the material accounting detection procedure. Calculated risks take into account the capabilities of process area containment/surveillance, material accounting mass balance tests, and physical protection barriers and procedures. In addition, EMCAS evaluates the Material Control and Accounting (MC and A) System in the following areas: (1) system capability to detect errors in the official book inventory of SNM, using mass balance accounting methods, (2) system capability to prevent errors from entering the nuclear material data base during periods of operation between mass balance tests, (3) time to conduct inventories and resolve alarms, and (4) time lost from production to carry out material control and accounting loss detection activities. 3 figs., 5 tabs

Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES), version 4.0

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linders JBHJ; Rikken MGJ; Bakker J; Poel P van der; CSR

2002-01-01

This report describes the fouth version of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances, USES 4.0. USES 4.0 is an integrated risk assessment system for new and existing substances and agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. The risk assessment system for new and existing substances in

Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Computer and Game Science, Joongbu University, Geumsan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-04-15

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young; Son, Han Seong

2017-01-01

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Risk management and energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

1992-01-01

In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

Science.gov (United States)

Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

2018-01-01

We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

The third experiment of operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katsumura, Soichiro; Kimura, Hiroshi; Furuta, Kazuo; Tanaka, Hiroshi

2006-01-01

Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for HLW disposal on World Wide Web. We have been evaluating ORCAT system. After two test operations, we carried out the third test operation from Aug. 29 to Dec. 12, 2005. In the third test operation, 100 participants answered the questionnaires about the attitude change and knowledge. We classified the participants into two groups by the analysis on the number of login a week, and analyzed the change of the amount of subjective and objective knowledge. In the result of analysis on knowledge, the increase of amount of subjective knowledge doesn't always carried the increase of amount of objective knowledge. On the whole we found that the ORCAT system is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

[Development and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system].

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Jing-yi; Chen, Hua; Zhu, Sheng-mei

2010-09-21

To study the design, implementation and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system. To record, process and store peri-operative patient data automatically, all kinds of bedside monitoring equipments are connected into the system based on information integrating technology; after a statistical analysis of those patient data by data mining technology, patient status can be evaluated automatically based on risk prediction standard and decision support system, and then anesthetist could perform reasonable and safe clinical processes; with clinical processes electronically recorded, standard record tables could be generated, and clinical workflow is optimized, as well. With the system, kinds of patient data could be collected, stored, analyzed and archived, kinds of anesthesia documents could be generated, and patient status could be evaluated to support clinic decision. The anesthesia information management system is useful for improving anesthesia quality, decreasing risk of patient and clinician, and aiding to provide clinical proof.

Evaluation of Postural Stability and Fall Risk in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmet Inanir

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influences of Ankylosing spondylitis on postural balance and the risk of falls. Methods: A total of 73 sobjects were recruited for the study, including 36 with AS (17 men, 19 women and 37 healthy controls (19 men, 18 women. Patients were evaluated in terms of balance and risk of falls. Balance and risk of falls was assessed with the Biodex Stability System. Results: The mean age, gender and body mass index of the participants did not differ significantly between (p=0.308, p=0.724, p=0.766, respectively. When groups were evaluated in terms of postural stability indexes Overall Stability Index (OSI, Antero-Posteior Stability Index (APSI and Medio-Lateral Stability Index (MLSI had no statistically significant difference (p=0.190, p=0.437 ve p=0.144, respectively. Fall Risk Index (FRI evaluations showed that as patients’ test scores were higher than control group (p=0.001. (Table 1. Conclusions: In this study, we present numerical data that suggests that AS are associated with risk of falling. [Cukurova Med J 2013; 38(1.000: 86-91

Proximity systems: Analysis of health risks; Varchi magneticianalysis of health risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbaro, V.; Bartolini, P.; Donato, A. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Ingegneria Biomedica; Militello, C.; Polichetti, A.; Vecchia, P. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Fisica

1996-03-01

The results of a study on the magnetic fields generated by proximity systems for the controlled access of personnel are reported. Besides data from experimental measurements, the results are presented of theoretical calculations of induced currents inside the body. Health risks are also evaluated based on a comparison with the most advanced international standards. Finally, possible effects of interference with implanted pacemakers are analyzed in detail.

Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

1996-01-01

Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.

2014-06-01

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning

A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caudell, Thomas P. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

2008-12-01

Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

Strategy of Risk-Informed Inspection for Secondary Systems in NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, So Young; Heo, Gyun Young

2012-01-01

Recently, unexpected accidents such as large-scale blackout have been occurred due to increasing demand of electricity. The unplanned trips have great influence over the economics although they rarely affect the safety of system. Because the cost for inspection and maintenance is limited, it is beneficial not only economically to take follow-up action in a timely manner to prevent plant trip but also in safety by protecting against the risk which is occurred from trip. In nuclear power plants (NPPs), the importance about risk-informed service such as inspection, maintenance and replacement is becoming on the rise. Risk-informed techniques such as in-service test, in-service inspection, design guide change and etc. are already used in nuclear field but these techniques are applied focusing on primary system for safety-related regulatory issues. It is needed to consider the optimization of inspection informed risk for entire plant including secondary system which is not applied enough. The study about risk-based inspection for boilers in thermal power field is in progress actively, but not for turbine cycle, which is similar with nuclear industry. Today, the most of inspections or tests for turbine cycle are time-based maintenance, being performed on time. It is required to perform condition-based maintenance by evaluating risk analyzing both of probability and consequence simultaneously about damage mechanisms that can be predicted by equipment or devices configuring the secondary system. Probability of failure (POF) is analyzed in terms of materials' ageing mechanisms, but consequence of failure (COF) should be evaluated in terms of thermohydraulic condition then it is needed to check power loss and period of maintenance. This paper is going to propose the idea to quantify the consequence of failure using the fault tree and simulation for secondary system, and propose quantitative risk-informed inspection by these approaches

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

Science.gov (United States)

Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

Measuring Systemic Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heje Pedersen, Lasse

We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

1991-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

2013-01-01

A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

Quality Risk Evaluation of the Food Supply Chain Using a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain can reduce quality information asymmetry and food quality incidents and promote nationally integrated regulations for food quality. In order to evaluate it, a quality risk evaluation indicator system for the food supply chain is constructed based on an extensive literature review in this paper. Furthermore, a mathematical model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain is developed. A computational experiment aimed at verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model is conducted on the basis of a questionnaire survey. The results suggest that this model can be used as a general guideline to assess the quality risk level in the food supply chain and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on food quality management.

Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

OpenAIRE

Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

2016-01-01

The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

Science.gov (United States)

Dickinson, William B.

1995-01-01

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

Framework for generating expert systems to perform computer security risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

1985-01-01

At Los Alamos we are developing a framework to generate knowledge-based expert systems for performing automated risk analyses upon a subject system. The expert system is a computer program that models experts' knowledge about a topic, including facts, assumptions, insights, and decision rationale. The subject system, defined as the collection of information, procedures, devices, and real property upon which the risk analysis is to be performed, is a member of the class of systems that have three identifying characteristics: a set of desirable assets (or targets), a set of adversaries (or threats) desiring to obtain or to do harm to the assets, and a set of protective mechanisms to safeguard the assets from the adversaries. Risk analysis evaluates both vulnerability to and the impact of successful threats against the targets by determining the overall effectiveness of the subject system safeguards, identifying vulnerabilities in that set of safeguards, and determining cost-effective improvements to the safeguards. As a testbed, we evaluate the inherent vulnerabilities and risks in a system of computer security safeguards. The method considers safeguards protecting four generic targets (physical plant of the computer installation, its hardware, its software, and its documents and displays) against three generic threats (natural hazards, direct human actions requiring the presence of the adversary, and indirect human actions wherein the adversary is not on the premises-perhaps using such access tools as wiretaps, dialup lines, and so forth). Our automated procedure to assess the effectiveness of computer security safeguards differs from traditional risk analysis methods

Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

2011-01-01

Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1995-04-01

The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soszynska, Joanna

2006-01-01

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k n ' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k n ' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system

Information systems for risk management

OpenAIRE

Michael S. Gibson

1997-01-01

Risk management information systems are designed to overcome the problem of aggregating data across diverse trading units. The design of an information system depends on the risk measurement methodology that a firm chooses. Inherent in the design of both a risk management information system and a risk measurement methodology is a tradeoff between the accuracy of the resulting measures of risk and the burden of computing them. Technical progress will make this tradeoff more favorable over time...

Risk Assessment Method of UHV AC/DC Power System under Serious Disasters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rishang Long

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Based on the theory of risk assessment, the risk assessment method for an ultra-high voltage (UHV AC/DC hybrid power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering the whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed, and the whole process risk assessment model is established considering the loss of both fault stage and recovery stage based on Monte Carlo method and BPA software. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system is proposed from the aspects of power system structure, fault state and economic loss, and the quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out by an entropy weight model. Finally, the risk assessment of two UHV planning schemes are carried out and compared, which proves the effectiveness of the research work.

Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartman, Luiz Carlos

2009-01-01

The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2017-01-01

Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

Reliability evaluation of a port oil transportation system in variable operation conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soszynska, Joanna [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)]. E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.pl

2006-04-15

The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected parameters are determined. The series 'm out of k {sub n}' multi-state system is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability and risk is constructed. Moreover, reliability and risk evaluation of the multi-state series 'm out of k {sub n}' system in its operation process is applied to the port oil transportation system.

Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, K.M.

1994-01-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

Impact Of Exogenous And Endogenous Risks On Systemic Risk In Indonesian Banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfiana

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Weaknesses of the Banking Pressure Index and Financial Stability Index as an early detection system were not to involve contagion and bank run. This study aimed at determining impacts of endogenous and exogenous risks on systemic risks. It was a descriptive verificatory study using monthly secondary data of 2011-2014 and multiple regressions. Utilizing credit risk liquidity risk market risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run inflation BI rate exchange rate and systemic risk variables of the 2011-2014 period it turned out that only endogenous risks of contagion and bank run variables impacted on systemic risk in Indonesian banking. The result showed that after the test of classical linear regression assumption credit risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run and inflation variables simultaneously impacted on systemic risk and contributed to the movement of systemic risk. However our findings suggested that only contagion CONT bank run BR and inflation INF variables significantly impacted on systemic risk in a positive direction.

At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

2008-01-01

The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P. [CEPN, Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France); Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C. [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom); Janssens, A. [European Commission, DG XI (Luxembourg)

2000-05-01

through the successive use of a dosimetric model (NRPB, 1998) and a somatic effects model (BEIR V, 1990) based on the follow-up of lung cancers in Hiroshima and Nagasaki population. In both cases, the modifying effect of tobacco consumption on the risk is adjusted for. The principal risk indicators calculated by the software are the whole life mortality risk and loss of life expectancy. Additionally, all the intermediate results are available. A system of monetary value of human life allows also to identify the most cost-effective countermeasure. This software could play a role in general training, the provision of information to the public and in investigating the effect on risk of different dose reduction strategies. Finally, its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its database system together with its user friendly configuration capabilities should make it an easy to use tool for the risk evaluation experts of various countries to perform useful calculations, appropriate to their situations with regard to local radon and smoking patterns. (author)

A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P.; Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C.; Janssens, A.

2000-01-01

through the successive use of a dosimetric model (NRPB, 1998) and a somatic effects model (BEIR V, 1990) based on the follow-up of lung cancers in Hiroshima and Nagasaki population. In both cases, the modifying effect of tobacco consumption on the risk is adjusted for. The principal risk indicators calculated by the software are the whole life mortality risk and loss of life expectancy. Additionally, all the intermediate results are available. A system of monetary value of human life allows also to identify the most cost-effective countermeasure. This software could play a role in general training, the provision of information to the public and in investigating the effect on risk of different dose reduction strategies. Finally, its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its database system together with its user friendly configuration capabilities should make it an easy to use tool for the risk evaluation experts of various countries to perform useful calculations, appropriate to their situations with regard to local radon and smoking patterns. (author)

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

2015-01-01

We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure of financial companies' contribution to systemic risk, given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we define

Underground risk management information systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matsuyama, S.; Inoue, M.; Sakai, T.

2006-03-15

JCOAL has conducted Joint Research on an Underground Communication and Risk Management Information System with CSIRO of Australia under a commissioned study project for the promotion of coal use starting in fiscal 2002. The goal of this research project is the establishment of a new Safety System focusing on the comprehensive risk management information system by the name of Nexsys. The main components of the system are the Ethernet type underground communication system that represents the data communication base, and the risk management information system that permits risk analysis in real-time and provides decision support based on the collected data. The Nexsys is an open system and is a core element of the underground monitoring system. Using a vast amount of underground data, it is capable of accommodating a wide range of functions that were not available in the past. Because of it, it is possible to construct an advanced underground safety system. 14 figs., 4 tabs.

Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudley, E.C.

1998-05-01

On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

2007-01-01

In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, Christena C.

2017-01-01

security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-03-01

This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

1994-01-01

Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

Design evaluation of the 40-cm (16-inch) primary burner system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rode, J.S.

1977-06-01

An evaluation is given of the design of the existing 40-cm (16-in.) engineering-scale primary burner system in the HTGR reprocessing cold pilot plant at General Atomic Co. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the suitability of the existing design as a prototype of the HTGR Recycle Demonstration Facility (HRDF) primary burner system and to recommend alternatives where the existing design is thought to be unsuitable as a prototype. This evaluation has led to recommendations for the parallel development of two integrated design concepts for a prototype primary burner system. One concept utilizes the existing burner heating and cooling sub-systems in order to minimize development risk, but simplifies a number of other features associated with remote maintenance and burner operation. The other concept, which offers maximum cost reduction, utilizes direct contact hot gas heating and internal gas cooling of the burner, but requires considerable development to reduce the risk to acceptable limits. These concepts, as well as other design alternatives, are described and evaluated

Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrews, C.J.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

Evaluation of alternative strategies to MERV 16-based air filtration systems for reduction of the risk of airborne spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Dee, Scott; Pitkin, Andrea; Deen, John

2009-07-02

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a re-emerging disease of pigs and a growing threat to the global swine industry. For sustainable disease control it is critical to prevent the airborne spread of the etiologic agent, PRRS virus, between pig populations. The application of MERV 16-based air filtration systems to swine facilities in an effort to reduce this risk has been proposed; however, due to the cost and air flow restrictions of such systems the need for alternative strategies has arisen. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate 3 groups of alternative biosecurity strategies for reducing the risk of the airborne spread of PRRSV. Strategies evaluated included mechanical filters, antimicrobial filters and a disinfectant-EVAP (evaporative cooling) system. Results from this study indicate that while alternatives to MERV 16-based biosecurity protocols for protecting farms from the airborne spread of PRRSV are available, further information on their efficacy in the field is needed before conclusions can be drawn.

Using the EPRI Risk-Informed ISI Methodology on Piping Systems in Forsmark 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Regan, Patrick; Moody, Jim; Loetman, Jan; Sandstedt, Johan

2010-12-01

The objective of this project was a pilot plant demonstration of the EPRI RI-ISI Methodology to selected systems at Forsmark, Unit 3 (F3). This scope of this study encompasses five systems and is based upon F3 implementation of SKIFs guidance as well as other consideration as documented in the PMT program. As described in section 2, five systems were selected for evaluation. These systems were selected because they allow this project to focus on a number of issues of interest in developing a RI-ISI methodology and RI-ISI program. This includes the following: - Several different types of degradation may be identified, - Several different types of 'consequence of failure' may be identified, - Different types of safety systems are evaluated - Non-safety systems are evaluated Using the results of this application, insights and comparisons between SKIFS and the EPRI methodologies' are provided including the following: - Consequence of pressure boundary failure (PBF) as described in Section 3.14. - Degradation mechanism evaluation as described in Section 4.8. - Risk ranking as described in Section 5. - Element selection for inspection as described in Section 6. - Risk impact as described in Section 7

Using the EPRI Risk-Informed ISI Methodology on Piping Systems in Forsmark 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Regan, Patrick (Electric Power Research Inst., Knoxville, TN (United States)); Moody, Jim (JHM Consulting, Strafford (United States)); Loetman, Jan (Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB (Sweden)); Sandstedt, Johan (Risk Pilot AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

2010-12-15

The objective of this project was a pilot plant demonstration of the EPRI RI-ISI Methodology to selected systems at Forsmark, Unit 3 (F3). This scope of this study encompasses five systems and is based upon F3 implementation of SKIFs guidance as well as other consideration as documented in the PMT program. As described in section 2, five systems were selected for evaluation. These systems were selected because they allow this project to focus on a number of issues of interest in developing a RI-ISI methodology and RI-ISI program. This includes the following: - Several different types of degradation may be identified, - Several different types of 'consequence of failure' may be identified, - Different types of safety systems are evaluated - Non-safety systems are evaluated Using the results of this application, insights and comparisons between SKIFS and the EPRI methodologies' are provided including the following: - Consequence of pressure boundary failure (PBF) as described in Section 3.14. - Degradation mechanism evaluation as described in Section 4.8. - Risk ranking as described in Section 5. - Element selection for inspection as described in Section 6. - Risk impact as described in Section 7

Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huang, Qiubin; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China. Although these measures show different patterns, our

Risk-based Inspection Guide for the Susquehanna Station HPCI system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, R.; Higgins, J.; Gunther, W.; Shier, W.

1992-11-01

The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A system Risk-based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station (SSES) which is operated by Pennsylvania Power ampersand Light (PP ampersand L). Included in this S-RIG is a discussion of the role of HPCI in mitigating accidents and a presentation of PRA-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG uses industry operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples, to augment the basic PRA failure modes. It is designed to be used as a reference for both routine inspections and the evaluation of the significance of component failures

Overview and Demonstration of USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System is a data gathering and analysis platform for conducting material disposal and beneficial use assessments. Users can evaluate risks to human and ecological receptors associated with exposures to organic and inorganic chemi...

Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

2016-12-01

This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

Probabilistic Modeling of Seismic Risk Based Design for a Dual System Structure

OpenAIRE

Sidi, Indra Djati

2017-01-01

The dual system structure concept has gained popularity in the construction of high-rise buildings over the last decades. Meanwhile, earthquake engineering design provisions for buildings have moved from the uniform hazard concept to the uniform risk concept upon recognizing the uncertainties involved in the earthquake resistance of concrete structures. In this study, a probabilistic model for the evaluation of such risk is proposed for a dual system structure consisting of shear walls or cor...

Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

2014-08-15

Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Subsequent Central Nervous System Tumors in Pediatric Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gabriel, Melissa; Shaw, Bronwen E; Brazauskas, Ruta

2017-01-01

Survivors of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) are at risk of subsequent solid tumors, including central nervous system (CNS) tumors. The risk of CNS tumors after HCT in pediatric HCT recipients is not known. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for CNS tumors in pediatric recipients...

A Complex Systems Perspective of Risk Mitigation and Modeling in Development and Acquisition Programs

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

current methodologies used in risk assessment are heavily subjective and inaccurate in various life cycle phases of complex engineered systems. The...complexity content of the system. Many of the system’s life cycle risks are currently assessed subjectively by imprecise methodologies such as color...evaluated for multiple entities such as galaxies, stars, planets , plants, animals, societies, and technological systems, and also has been mapped

A genetic fuzzy system for unstable angina risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Wei; Huang, Zhengxing; Ji, Lei; Duan, Huilong

2014-02-18

Unstable Angina (UA) is widely accepted as a critical phase of coronary heart disease with patients exhibiting widely varying risks. Early risk assessment of UA is at the center of the management program, which allows physicians to categorize patients according to the clinical characteristics and stratification of risk and different prognosis. Although many prognostic models have been widely used for UA risk assessment in clinical practice, a number of studies have highlighted possible shortcomings. One serious drawback is that existing models lack the ability to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty about the variables utilized. In order to help physicians refine knowledge for the stratification of UA risk with respect to vagueness in information, this paper develops an intelligent system combining genetic algorithm and fuzzy association rule mining. In detail, it models the input information's vagueness through fuzzy sets, and then applies a genetic fuzzy system on the acquired fuzzy sets to extract the fuzzy rule set for the problem of UA risk assessment. The proposed system is evaluated using a real data-set collected from the cardiology department of a Chinese hospital, which consists of 54 patient cases. 9 numerical patient features and 17 categorical patient features that appear in the data-set are selected in the experiments. The proposed system made the same decisions as the physician in 46 (out of a total of 54) tested cases (85.2%). By comparing the results that are obtained through the proposed system with those resulting from the physician's decision, it has been found that the developed model is highly reflective of reality. The proposed system could be used for educational purposes, and with further improvements, could assist and guide young physicians in their daily work.

Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

PRISIM - a plant risk status information management system for NRC inspectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reilly, H.J.; Glynn, J.C.; Campbell, D.J.

1987-01-01

The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) is a microcomputer program that presents results of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and related informations, for use by USNRC decisionmakers. Plant-specific PRISIMs have been developed for three nuclear plants in the United States. The usefulness of PRISIM for these plants is now under evaluation, and an improved PRISIM is being developed. (orig./HSCH)

Evaluatiopn of Strategies for Modifying Urban Storm Water Drainage System Using Risk-based Criteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

mahsa soleimani

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Appropriate modification of existing urban storm water drainage networks may help reduce network inundation and flood-borne pollution risks. It will, therefore, be necessary to analyze the risks associated with water quantity and quality during urban flooding before any reconstruction strategies can be identified that are adaptable to, or compatible with, urban sustainable development strategies. In this paper, three network modification strategies are evaluated against the three criteria of network inundation at different sections, flood pollution risks, and modification plan costs. The modification strategies evaluated include the conventional approach of increasing conduit dimensions as well as the two novels swale and bio-retention systems. The strategies are then prioritised using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA method. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated in the case study of urban storm water drainage systems in the Golestan City in Tehran Province for which a hydrological and hydraulic simulation model has been developed using the SWMM software. The results show that the swale system is the best strategy with an approximate cost of 20 billion Rials (almost US$ 6 million. Compared to the existing system in operation, the proposed system will be capable of reducing 59% of the quantitative risk of flooding (inundation and 26% of the water quality risk (pollution loads.

Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teng, Kuei-Yung; Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

2012-01-01

Agencies are increasingly following principles and guidelines for the coordination of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication in large-scale programs. In particular, there is a challenge to comply with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis” among other guidelines. This paper demonstrates a systemic approach to achieve compliance of a risk program with administrative and organizational principles and guidelines for risk analysis. The paper suggests three canonical questions as the mission of such a program: (i) what sources of risks are to be managed by the program, (ii) how should multiple risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication activities be administered and coordinated, and what should be the basis for resource allocation to these activities, and (iii) how will the performance of the program be monitored and evaluated. The paper demonstrates a re-prioritization of policy initiatives of the program based on emergent and future conditions. The approach is useful to agencies implementing risk or safety organizational guidelines such as those of the OMB, the US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Department of Defense, and others. This paper will be of interest to risk managers; agencies; and risk and safety analysts engaged in the conception, implementation, and evaluation of risk or safety programs. - Highlights: ► We develop a systemic approach for management of a risk or safety program. ► The approach includes business process models and policy prioritization. ► The results support organizations to implement risk and safety programs.

A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

Systems considerations in seismic margin evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buttermer, D.R.

1987-01-01

Increasing knowledge in the geoscience field has led to the understanding that, although highly unlikely, it is possible for a nuclear power plant to be subjected to earthquake ground motion greater than that for which the plant was designed. While it is recognized that there are conservatisms inherent in current design practices, interest has developed in evaluating the seismic risk of operating plants. Several plant-specific seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) have been completed to address questions related to the seismic risk of a plant. The results from such SPRAs are quite informative, but such studies may entail a considerable amount of expensive analysis of large portions of the plant. As an alternative to an SPRA, it may be more practical to select an earthquake level above the design basis for which plant survivability is to be demonstrated. The principal question to be addressed in a seismic margin evaluation is: At what ground motion levels does one have a high confidence that the probability of seismically induced core damage is sufficiently low? In a seismic margin evaluation, an earthquake level is selected (based on site-specific geoscience considerations) for which a stable, long-term safe shutdown condition is to be demonstrated. This prespecified earthquake level is commonly referred to as the seismic margin earthquake (SME). The Electric Power Research Institute is currently supporting a research project to develop procedures for use by the utilities to allow them to perform nuclear plant seismic margin evaluations. This paper describes the systems-related aspects of these procedures

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silverman, Eugene B.

2004-01-01

Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

2016-01-01

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment of a fusion-reactor fuel-processing system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruske, S.Z.; Holland, D.F.

1983-07-01

The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology provides a means to systematically examine the potential for accidents that may result in a release of hazardous materials. This report presents the PRA for a typical fusion reactor fuel processing system. The system used in the analysis is based on the Tritium Systems Test Assembly, which is being operated at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The results of the evaluation are presented in a probability-consequence plot that describes the probability of various accidental tritium release magnitudes

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Risk evaluation in Columbian electricity market using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina, S.; Moreno, J.

2007-01-01

This article proposes a model based on Fuzzy Logic to evaluate the market risk that a trading agent faces in the electric power negotiation in Colombia, as part of a general model of negotiation. The proposed model considers single external factors as regulatory changes, social and political issues, and the condition of the national transmission net. Variables of the market associated to these risk factors were selected and some graphic and statistical analyses were made in order to check their relationship with the electricity prices and to determine why the experts consider these factors in their analyses. According to the obtained results a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System which contains the expert knowledge was developed and it is presented in a fuzzy cognitive map. (author)

Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

1992-01-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

2014-01-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

Design evaluation of the 20-cm (8-inch) secondary burner system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rode, J.S.

1977-08-01

This report describes an evaluation of the design of the existing 20-cm (8-inch) engineering-scale secondary burner system in the HTGR reprocessing cold pilot plant at General Atomic Co. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the suitability of the existing design as a prototype of the HTGR Recycle Demonstration Facility (HRDF) secondary burner system and to recommend alternatives where the existing design is thought to be unsuitable as a prototype. This evaluation has led to recommendations for the parallel development of two integrated design concepts for a prototype secondary burner system. One concept utilizes the existing burner heating and cooling subsystems in order to minimize development risk, but simplifies a number of other features associated with remote maintenance and burner operation. The other concept, which offers maximum cost reduction, utilizes internal gas cooling of the burner, retains the existing heating subsystem for design compatibility, but requires considerable development to reduce the risk to acceptable limits. These concepts, as well as other design alternatives, are described and evaluated

PRISIM: A plant risk status information management system for NRC inspectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reilly, H.J.; Glynn, J.C.; Campbell, D.J.

1987-01-01

The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIM) is a microcomputer program that presents results of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and related information, for use by United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) decisionmakers. Plant-specific PRISIMs have been developed for three nuclear plants in the United States. The usefulness of PRISIM for these plants is now under evaluation, and an improved PRISIM is being developed

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

2017-09-12

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Slip and fall risk on ice and snow:identification, evaluation and prevention

OpenAIRE

Gao, Chuansi

2004-01-01

Slip and fall accidents and associated injuries on ice and snow are prevalent among outdoor workers and the general public in winter in many regions of the world. To understand and tackle this multi-factorial problem, a multidisciplinary approach was used to identify and evaluate slip and fall risks, and to propose recommendations for prevention of slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces. Objectives were to present a systems perspective of slip and fall accidents and related risk factors; t...

Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

1994-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

NASA's Risk Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Information Assurance for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Risk Considerations in Public Sector Organizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naeem, S.; Islam, M.H.

2016-01-01

ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems reveal and pose non-typical risks due to its dependencies of interlinked business operations and process reengineering. Understanding of such type of risks is significant conducting and planning assurance involvement of the reliability of these complicated computer systems. Specially, in case of distributed environment where data reside at multiple sites and risks are of unique nature. Until now, there are brief pragmatic grounds on this public sector ERP issue. To analyze this subject, a partially organized consultation study was carried out with 15 skilled information systems auditors who are specialists in evaluating ERP systems risks. This methodology permitted to get more elaborated information about stakeholder's opinions and customer experiences. In addition, interviewees mentioned a numerous basic execution troubles (e.g. inadequately skilled human resource and insufficient process reengineering attempts) that lead into enhanced hazards. It was also reported by the interviewees that currently risks vary across vendors and across applications. Eventually, in offering assurance with ERP systems participants irresistibly stresses examining the process instead of system end product. (author)

Information Assurance for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: Risk Considerations in Public Sector Organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SHAHZAD NAEEM

2016-10-01

Full Text Available ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning systems reveal and pose non-typical risks due to its dependencies of interlinked business operations and process reengineering. Understanding of such type of risks is significant conducting and planning assurance involvement of the reliability of these complicated computer systems. Specially, in case of distributed environment where data reside at multiple sites and risks are of unique nature. Until now, there are brief pragmatic grounds on this public sector ERP issue. To analyze this subject, a partially organized consultation study was carried out with 15 skilled information systems auditors who are specialists in evaluating ERP systems risks. This methodology permitted to get more elaborated information about stakeholder?s opinions and customer experiences. In addition, interviewees mentioned a numerous basic execution troubles (e.g. inadequately skilled human resource and insufficient process reengineering attempts that lead into enhanced hazards. It was also reported by the interviewees that currently risks vary across vendors and across applications. Eventually, in offering assurance with ERP systems participants irresistibly stresses examining the process instead of system end product.

Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems

OpenAIRE

Jorge A Chan-Lau

2010-01-01

The 2008/9 financial crisis highlighted the importance of evaluating vulnerabilities owing to interconnectedness, or Too-Connected-to-Fail risk, among financial institutions for country monitoring, financial surveillance, investment analysis and risk management purposes. This paper illustrates the use of balance sheet-based network analysis to evaluate interconnectedness risk, under extreme adverse scenarios, in banking systems in mature and emerging market countries, and between individual b...

Technical specifications review of nuclear power plants: a risk-informed evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saldanha, Pedro Luiz da Cruz; Sousa, Anna Leticia; Frutuoso e Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira; Duarte, Juliana Pacheco

2012-01-01

The use of risk information by a regulatory body as part of an integrated decision making process addresses the way in which risk information is being used as part of an integrated process in making decisions about safety issues at nuclear plants – commonly referred to as risk-informed decision making. The risk-informed approach aims to integrate in a systematic manner quantitative and qualitative, deterministic and probabilistic safety considerations to obtain a balanced decision. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a methodology that can be applied to provide a structured analysis process to evaluate the frequency and consequences of accidents scenarios in nuclear power plants. Technical Specifications (TS) are specifications regarding the characteristics of nuclear power plants (variables, systems or components) of overriding importance to nuclear safety and radiation protection, which is an integral part of plant operation authorization. Limiting Conditions of Operation (LCO) are the minimum levels of performance or capacity or operating system components required for the safe operation of nuclear plants, as defined in technical specifications. The Maintenance Rule (MR) is a requirement established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to check the effectiveness of maintenance carried out in nuclear plants, and plant configuration control. The control of plant configuration is necessary to verify the impact of the maintenance of a safety device out of service on plant safety. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has assessed the role of probabilistic safety analysis in the regulation of nuclear power plants with the following objectives: a) to provide utilities with an approach for developing and implementing nuclear power station risk-managed technical specification programs; and b) to complement and supplement existing successful configuration risk management applications such as MR. This paper focuses on the evaluation of EPRI

Probabilistic pattern of risks in company’s Quality management system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mager Vladimir

2017-01-01

Full Text Available One possible approach for calculation of probabilistic rate of risks in Quality management system (QMS, which is prescribed by requirements of International Standard ISO 9001:2015, is proposed in this article. Aspects of the theory of dependability and Markov techniques are used, which are applied for evaluation of probability of failures in complicated technical systems. Representation of QMS processes as a graph with controlled discrete Markov chains is suggested, which allows to evaluate a probability of customer requirements non-fulfillment as a function of an intensity of mistakes that bring to non-conformities in QMS.

Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

Science.gov (United States)

Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

2011-11-01

Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energy devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.

FLIGHT SAFETY CONTROL OF THE BASIS OF UNCERTAIN RISK EVALUATION WITH NON-ROUTINE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INVOLVED

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with methods of forecasting the level of aviation safety operation of aircraft systems on the basis of methods of evaluation the risks of negative situations as a consequence of a functional loss of initial properties of the system with critical violations of standard modes of the aircraft. Mathematical Models of Risks as a Danger Measure of Discrete Random Events in Aviation Systems are presented. Technological Schemes and Structure of Risk Control Proce- dures without the Probability are illustrated as Methods of Risk Management System in Civil Aviation. The assessment of the level of safety and quality and management of aircraft, made not only from the standpoint of reliability (quality and consumer properties, but also from the position of ICAO on the basis of a risk-based approach. According to ICAO, the security assessment is performed by comparing the calculated risk with an acceptable level. The approach justifies the use of qualitative evaluation techniques safety in the forms of proactive forecasted and predictive risk management adverse impacts to aviation operations of various kinds, including the space sector and nuclear energy. However, for the events such as accidents and disasters, accidents with the aircraft, fighters in a training flight, during the preparation of the pilots on the training aircraft, etc. there is no required statistics. Density of probability distribution (p. d. f. of these events are only hypothetical, unknown with "hard tails" that completely eliminates the application of methods of confidence intervals in the traditional approaches to the assessment of safety in the form of the probability analysis.

ATWS: a reappraisal, part II, evaluation of societal risks due to reactor protection systems failure. Vol. 3. Pwr risk analysis. Phase report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lellouche, G.S.

1976-08-01

This document is the third volume of part 2 in a series of studies which will examine the basis for the problem of Anticipated Transients Without Scram (ATWS). The purpose of part 2 is an evaluation of societal risks due to RPS failure based on more current data and methodology than used in WASH-1270. This volume examines and documents the potential contribution to societal risk due to ATWS in the PWR. Volumes 1 and 2 described a similar analysis for the BWR

Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Zhang

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheetham Mark

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

RSKM 2004 COSO Enterprise RSKM Framework 2006 ISO/IEC 16085 Risk Management Process 2008 ISO/IEC 12207 Software Lifecycle Processes 2009 ISO/IEC...1 Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management John Walz VP Technical and Conferences Activities, IEEE Computer Society Vice-Chair Planning...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software

Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erika Bareikaitė

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yan

2017-05-25

The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

Technical Specification action statements requiring shutdown. A risk perspective with application to the RHR/SSW systems of a BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1993-11-01

When safety systems fail during power operation, the limiting conditions for operation (LCOs) and associated action statements of technical specifications typically require that the plant be shut down within the limits of allowed outage time (AOT). However, when a system needed to remove decay heat, such as the residual heat removal (RHR) system, is inoperable or degraded, shutting down the plant may not necessarily be preferable, from a risk perspective, to continuing power operation over a usual repair time, giving priority to the repairs. The risk impact of the basic operational alternatives, i.e., continued operation or shutdown, was evaluated for failures in the RHR and standby service water (SSW) systems of a boiling-water reactor (BWR) nuclear power plant. A complete or partial failure of the SSW system fails or degrades not only the RHR system but other front-line safety systems supported by the SSW system. This report presents the methodology to evaluate the risk impact of LCOs and associated AOT; the results of risk evaluation from its application to the RHR and SSW systems of a BWR; the findings from the risk-sensitivity analyses to identify alternative operational policies; and the major insights and recommendations to improve the technical specifications action statements.

Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

1989-10-01

This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Neck keloids: evaluation of risk factors and recommendation for keloid staging system.

Science.gov (United States)

Tirgan, Michael H

2016-01-01

Importance : Health care providers have long struggled with recurrent and hard to treat keloids. Advancing our understanding of natural history and risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids can lead to improved treatment outcomes. Clinical staging system for the categorization of keloid lesions, as well as grouping of keloid patients according to the extent of skin involvement is both fundamental for design and delivery of proper plan of care and an absolute necessity for methodical trial design and interpretation of the results thereof. Objective : To review clinical presentation and natural history of neck keloids; to explore risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids; and to propose a clinical staging system that allows for categorization of keloid lesions by their size and grouping of keloid patients by the extent of their skin involvement.  Setting:  This is a retrospective analysis of 82 consecutive patients with neck keloids who were seen by the author in his keloid specialty medical practice.    Intervention : Non-surgical treatment was offered to all patients.  Results : Neck-area keloids were found to have several unique characteristics. All 65 African Americans in this study had keloidal lesions elsewhere on their skin. Very large and massive neck keloids appear to be race-specific and almost exclusively seen among African Americans. Submandibular and submental skin was the most commonly involved area of the neck. Keloid removal surgery was found to be the main risk factor for development of very large and massive neck keloids.  Conclusions and relevance : Surgical removal of neck keloids results in wounding of the skin and triggering a pathological wound-healing response that often leads to formation of a much larger keloid.  Given the potential for greater harm from surgery, the author proposes non-surgical approach for treatment of all primary neck keloids. Author's attempts to

Systemic trade risk of critical resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Klimek, Peter; Obersteiner, Michael; Thurner, Stefan

2015-11-01

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent, region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by-products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union.

Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

Proposed risk evaluation guidelines for use by the DOE-AL Nuclear Explosive Safety Division in evaluating proposed shipments of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Just, R.A.; Love, A.F.

1997-10-01

The licensing requirements of 10 CFR 71 (US Code of Federal Regulations) are the primary criteria used to license proposed US Department of Energy (DOE) shipments of nuclear components. However, if a shipment cannot meet 10 CFR 71 requirements, a Transportation System Risk Assessment (TSRA) is prepared to document: (1) the degree of compliance of proposed DOE shipments of nuclear components with applicable federal regulations, and (2) the risk associated with the proposed shipments. The Nuclear Explosive Safety Division (NESD) of the Department of Energy, Albuquerque Area Office (DOE-AL) is responsible for evaluating TSRAs and for preparing Safety Evaluation Reports (SERs) to authorize the off-site transport. Hazards associated with the transport may include the presence of fissile material, chemically and radiologically toxic uranium, and ionizing radiation. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has historically considered only radiological hazards in licensing the transport of radiological material because the US Department of Transportation considers licensing requirements of nonradiological (i.e., chemically toxic) hazards. The requirements of 10 CFR 71 are based primarily on consideration of radiological hazards. For completeness, this report provides information for assessing the effects of chemical toxicity. Evaluating the degree of compliance with the requirements of 10 CFR 71 is relatively straightforward. However, there are few precedents associated with developing TSRA risk assessments for packages that do not comply with all of the requirements of 10 CFR 71. The objective of the task is to develop Risk Evaluation Guidelines for DOE-AL to use when evaluating a TSRA. If the TSRA shows that the Risk Evaluation Guidelines are not exceeded, then from a risk perspective the TSRA should be approved if there is evidence that the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle has been applied

Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1989-08-01

This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

OpenAIRE

Jinsoo Shin; Hanseong Son; Gyunyoung Heo

2017-01-01

Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluatio...

Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems. Volume 2 - Technical

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Haimes, Yacov Y

1996-01-01

... for both structural and nonstructural measures. The unifing theme of these results is that the design and evaluation of structural and nonstructural measures for flood mitigation, including flood warning and preparedness systems, is an integrative...

Design and evaluation of warning systems: application to nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pe Benito-Claudio, C.

1986-01-01

This study starts by defining and explaining key concepts about warning, both as a process and a system. Thereafter, it presents a quantitative, probabilistic, and decision-oriented methodology for designing and evaluating a warning system. It illustrates the methodology for the case of rare, controllable, and potentially disastrous technological events, such as accidents in nuclear power plants. The methodology covers and links the three principal components of a warning system - signal (which is mainly technical), warning dissemination, and warning response (which are mainly social) - thereby allowing the relative evaluation of technological and social measures for reducing risks. Analytical principles and techniques of risk and decision analyses are applied. It defines a probabilistic performance measure to characterize each component of a warning system, and a value measure to assess the overall effectiveness of the system. An important aspect of this work is the integration, into one analytical model, of the results of engineering studies, such as probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants, and of empirical findings on human response to warning in sociological research. The models, calculations, and sensitivity analyses are done with influence diagrams that are both intuitive and mathematical. This work puts particular emphasis on the study of behavioral response of individuals to warning

Evaluation of Roadmap to Achieve Energy Delivery Systems Cybersecurity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chavez, Adrian R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-10-01

The Department of Energy/Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE/OE) Cybersecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CEDS) program is currently evaluating the Roadmap to Achieve Energy Delivery Systems Cybersecurity document that sets a vision and outlines a set of milestones. The milestones are divided into five strategic focus areas that include: 1. Build a Culture of Security; 2. Assess and Monitor Risk; 3. Develop and Implement New Protective Measures to Reduce Risk; 4. Manage Incidents; and 5. Sustain Security Improvements. The most current version of the roadmap was last updated in September of 2016. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been tasked with revisiting the roadmap to update the current state of energy delivery systems cybersecurity protections. SNL is currently working with previous and current partners to provide feedback on which of the roadmap milestones have been met and to identify any preexisting or new gaps that are not addressed by the roadmap. The specific focus areas SNL was asked to evaluate are: 1. Develop and Implement New Protective Measures to Reduce Risk and 2. Sustain Security Improvements. SNL has formed an Industry Advisory Board (IAB) to assist in answering these questions. The IAB consists of previous partners on past CEDS funded efforts as well as new collaborators that have unique insights into the current state of cybersecurity within energy delivery systems. The IAB includes asset owners, utilities and vendors of control systems. SNL will continue to maintain regular communications with the IAB to provide various perspectives on potential future updates to further improve the breadth of cybersecurity coverage of the roadmap.

Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2014-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

2018-01-01

Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

Guidance to Risk-Informed Evaluation of Technical Specifications using PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baeckstroem, Ola; Haeggstroem, Anna; Maennistoe, Ilkka

2010-04-01

This report presents guidance for evaluation of Technical Specification conditions with PSA. It covers quality in PSA, how to verify that the PSA model is sufficiently robust and sufficiently complete and general requirements on methods. Acceptance criteria for evaluation of changes in the TS conditions are presented. As the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has developed over the years, it has demonstrated to constitute a useful tool for evaluating many aspects of the TS from a risk point of view. and in that way making the PSAs as well as the decision tools better. This also means that it will be possible to take credit for safety system overcapacity as well as inherent safety features and strength of non-safety classed systems. However, PSA is only one of the tools that shall be used in an evaluation process of TS changes (strengthening/relaxation). PSA is an excellent tool to be used to verify the importance, and thereby possibly relaxation, of TS requirements. But, since PSA is only one tool in the evaluation, it is not sufficient in itself for defining which equipment that shall or shall not have TS requirements. The purpose of this guidance document is to provide general requirements, requirements on methods and acceptance criteria on risk-informed evaluation of TS changes based on PSA. The purpose is not to provide a single solution. As part of the review of the TS conditions this guidance specify requirements on: - Quality verification of the PSA model; - Verification that the PSA model is sufficiently robust with regard to SSCs for which requirements both are and are not defined by the TS; - Verification that the SSCs, for which TS demands are to be evaluated, are modelled in a sufficient manner; - Methods for performing the evaluation; - Which evaluation criteria that shall be used (and how that is verified to be correct); - Acceptance criteria: This guidance also briefly discusses the documentation of the analysis of the TS changes. This guidance

Guidance to risk-informed evaluation of technical specifications using PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baeckstroem, O.; Haeggstroem, A.; Maennistoe, I.

2010-10-01

This report presents guidance for evaluation of Technical Specification conditions with PSA. It covers quality in PSA, how to verify that the PSA model is sufficiently robust and sufficiently complete and general requirements on methods. Acceptance criteria for evaluation of changes in the TS conditions are presented. As the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has developed over the years, it has demonstrated to constitute a useful tool for evaluating many aspects of the TS from a risk point of view. and in that way making the PSAs as well as the decision tools better. This also means that it will be possible to take credit for safety system overcapacity as well as inherent safety features and strength of non-safety classed systems. However, PSA is only one of the tools that shall be used in an evaluation process of TS changes (strengthening/relaxation). PSA is an excellent tool to be used to verify the importance, and thereby possibly relaxation, of TS requirements. But, since PSA is only one tool in the evaluation, it is not sufficient in itself for defining which equipment that shall or shall not have TS requirements. The purpose of this guidance document is to provide general requirements, requirements on methods and acceptance criteria on risk-informed evaluation of TS changes based on PSA. The purpose is not to provide a single solution. As part of the review of the TS conditions this guidance specify requirements on: - Quality verification of the PSA model; - Verification that the PSA model is sufficiently robust with regard to SSCs for which requirements both are and are not defined by the TS; - Verification that the SSCs, for which TS demands are to be evaluated, are modelled in a sufficient manner; - Methods for performing the evaluation; - Which evaluation criteria that shall be used (and how that is verified to be correct); - Acceptance criteria: This guidance also briefly discusses the documentation of the analysis of the TS changes. This guidance

Guidance to risk-informed evaluation of technical specifications using PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baeckstroem, O.; Haeggstroem, A. (Scandpower AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Maennistoe, I. (VTT, Helsingfors (Finland))

2010-04-15

This report presents guidance for evaluation of Technical Specification conditions with PSA. It covers quality in PSA, how to verify that the PSA model is sufficiently robust and sufficiently complete and general requirements on methods. Acceptance criteria for evaluation of changes in the TS conditions are presented. As the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has developed over the years, it has demonstrated to constitute a useful tool for evaluating many aspects of the TS from a risk point of view. and in that way making the PSAs as well as the decision tools better. This also means that it will be possible to take credit for safety system overcapacity as well as inherent safety features and strength of non-safety classed systems. However, PSA is only one of the tools that shall be used in an evaluation process of TS changes (strengthening/relaxation). PSA is an excellent tool to be used to verify the importance, and thereby possibly relaxation, of TS requirements. But, since PSA is only one tool in the evaluation, it is not sufficient in itself for defining which equipment that shall or shall not have TS requirements. The purpose of this guidance document is to provide general requirements, requirements on methods and acceptance criteria on risk-informed evaluation of TS changes based on PSA. The purpose is not to provide a single solution. As part of the review of the TS conditions this guidance specify requirements on: - Quality verification of the PSA model; - Verification that the PSA model is sufficiently robust with regard to SSCs for which requirements both are and are not defined by the TS; - Verification that the SSCs, for which TS demands are to be evaluated, are modelled in a sufficient manner; - Methods for performing the evaluation; - Which evaluation criteria that shall be used (and how that is verified to be correct); - Acceptance criteria: This guidance also briefly discusses the documentation of the analysis of the TS changes. This guidance

Guidance to Risk-Informed Evaluation of Technical Specifications using PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baeckstroem, Ola; Haeggstroem, Anna (Scandpower AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Maennistoe, Ilkka (VTT, Helsingfors (Finland))

2010-04-15

This report presents guidance for evaluation of Technical Specification conditions with PSA. It covers quality in PSA, how to verify that the PSA model is sufficiently robust and sufficiently complete and general requirements on methods. Acceptance criteria for evaluation of changes in the TS conditions are presented. As the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has developed over the years, it has demonstrated to constitute a useful tool for evaluating many aspects of the TS from a risk point of view. and in that way making the PSAs as well as the decision tools better. This also means that it will be possible to take credit for safety system overcapacity as well as inherent safety features and strength of non-safety classed systems. However, PSA is only one of the tools that shall be used in an evaluation process of TS changes (strengthening/relaxation). PSA is an excellent tool to be used to verify the importance, and thereby possibly relaxation, of TS requirements. But, since PSA is only one tool in the evaluation, it is not sufficient in itself for defining which equipment that shall or shall not have TS requirements. The purpose of this guidance document is to provide general requirements, requirements on methods and acceptance criteria on risk-informed evaluation of TS changes based on PSA. The purpose is not to provide a single solution. As part of the review of the TS conditions this guidance specify requirements on: - Quality verification of the PSA model; - Verification that the PSA model is sufficiently robust with regard to SSCs for which requirements both are and are not defined by the TS; - Verification that the SSCs, for which TS demands are to be evaluated, are modelled in a sufficient manner; - Methods for performing the evaluation; - Which evaluation criteria that shall be used (and how that is verified to be correct); - Acceptance criteria: This guidance also briefly discusses the documentation of the analysis of the TS changes. This guidance

A catalog of information systems outsourcing risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipe Sá-Soares

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems outsourcing risks. This study aims to contribute towards the synthesis of that theory, by proposing a conceptual framework for interpreting the literature and presenting a catalog of information systems outsourcing risks. The conceptual framework articulates together six key risk elements, namely dangers, negative outcomes, undesirable consequences, factors and mitigation actions. The catalog condenses and categorizes the information systems outsourcing risk elements found on the literature reviewed, both from the perspective of the outsourcing customer and from the perspective of the outsourcing provider. Proposals for subsequent work towards the generation of the theory of information systems outsourcing risk are suggested.

Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Barsotti

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin

2016-03-01

The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.

A route-specific system for risk assessment of radioactive materials transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, J.E.; Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.

1995-01-01

A low-cost, powerful geographic information system (GIS) that operates on a personal computer was integrated into a software system to provide route specific assessment of the risks associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive and hazardous materials in transportation accidents. The highway transportation risk assessment (HITRA) software system described here combines a commercially available GIS (TransCAD) with appropriate models and data files for route- and accident-specific factors, such as meteorology, dispersion, demography, and health effects to permit detailed analysis of transportation risk assessment. The HITRA system allows a user to interactively select a highway or railroad route from a GIS database of major US transportation routes. A route-specific risk assessment is then performed to estimate downwind release concentrations and the resulting potential health effects imposed on the exposed population under local environmental and temporal conditions. The integration of GIS technology with current risk assessment methodology permits detailed analysis coupled with enhanced user interaction. Furthermore, HITRA provides flexibility and documentation for route planning, updating and improving the databases required for evaluating specific transportation routes, changing meteorological and environmental conditions, and local demographics

Evaluation of nodal reliability risk in a deregulated power system with photovoltaic power penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Qian; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit

2014-01-01

Owing to the intermittent characteristic of solar radiation, power system reliability may be affected with high photovoltaic (PV) power penetration. To reduce large variation of PV power, additional system balancing reserve would be needed. In deregulated power systems, deployment of reserves...... and customer reliability requirements are correlated with energy and reserve prices. Therefore a new method should be developed to evaluate the impacts of PV power on customer reliability and system reserve deployment in the new environment. In this study, a method based on the pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo...... simulation technique has been proposed to evaluate the reserve deployment and customers' nodal reliability with high PV power penetration. The proposed method can effectively model the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of PV power and system operation with high computation efficiency...

13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

OpenAIRE

Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

2011-01-01

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

Evaluation Use in Evaluation Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Højlund, Steven

2014-01-01

This article investigates the European Union’s evaluation system and its conduciveness to evaluation use. Taking the European Commission’s LIFE programme as its case, the article makes an empirical contribution to an emerging focus in the literature on the importance of organization...... and institutions when analyzing evaluation use. By focusing on the European Union’s evaluation system the article finds that evaluation use mainly takes place in the European Commission and less so in the European Parliament and the European Council. The main explanatory factors enabling evaluation use relate...... to the system’s formalization of evaluation implementation and use; these factors ensure evaluation quality, timeliness and capacity in the Commission. At the same time, however, the system’s formalization also impedes evaluation use, reducing the direct influence of evaluations on policy-making and effectively...

Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk of infective endocarditis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus in Taiwan: a nationwide population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Y S; Chang, C C; Chen, Y H; Chen, W S; Chen, J H

2017-10-01

Objectives Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus are considered vulnerable to infective endocarditis and prophylactic antibiotics are recommended before an invasive dental procedure. However, the evidence is insufficient. This nationwide population-based study evaluated the risk and related factors of infective endocarditis in systemic lupus erythematosus. Methods We identified 12,102 systemic lupus erythematosus patients from the National Health Insurance research-oriented database, and compared the incidence rate of infective endocarditis with that among 48,408 non-systemic lupus erythematosus controls. A Cox multivariable proportional hazards model was employed to evaluate the risk of infective endocarditis in the systemic lupus erythematosus cohort. Results After a mean follow-up of more than six years, the systemic lupus erythematosus cohort had a significantly higher incidence rate of infective endocarditis (42.58 vs 4.32 per 100,000 person-years, incidence rate ratio = 9.86, p endocarditis in systemic lupus erythematosus patients. Conclusions A higher risk of infective endocarditis was observed in systemic lupus erythematosus patients. Risk factors for infective endocarditis in the systemic lupus erythematosus cohort included heart disease, chronic kidney disease, steroid pulse therapy within 30 days, and a recent invasive dental procedure within 30 days.

Systemic conditions and treatments as risk for therapy with dental implants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arguedas Vega, Natalia; Alfaro Mayorga, Erika

2013-01-01

The possible risks for osseointegration are described in patients with specific systemic conditions, medical treatment such as radiation, cardiovascular diseases, HIV and smoking habit. The principal complications for osseointegration of diseases and systemic treatments are exposed. The review and search of the available literature are realized in databases. The scientific literature obtained from human studies has reported the survival of patients with dental implants. The implants are placed in patients with at least one of the conditions studied. The risks of the surgical procedures required for the placement of implants are analyzed in systemically compromised patients. Comparisons of patients with and without systemic conditions in controlled form have remained without analyzing. The level of evidence of absolute and relative contraindications has been low for the therapy with implants in patients with systemic diseases. The revised information is detailed according the systemic conditions, and each of them are evaluated separately [es

Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, C.A.; Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.

1975-06-01

There has been much discussion and public debate concerning the effectiveness of the national system of safeguards against malevolent acts involving nuclear materials. Useful dialogue on this subject has been hampered by the lack of well-defined objectives, system parameters and boundary conditions as a framework for communication. This study provides such a framework. Expressing the safeguards objective in terms of societal risk represents a change in focus, rather than intent, from the earlier view of safeguards as a system for protecting nuclear material against theft or diversion. The study defines both the safeguards problem and the safeguards system in terms that can be related to the general safeguards objective. It is axiomatic that the first step to an effective solution is a careful definition of the problem. The significant and immediate value of this study lies in the rigorous definition and systematic organization of recognized elements into a coherent and comprehensive pattern. Although the title specifically addresses design and evaluation, the framework provided by the study will be a useful management tool for safeguards implementation and administration as well. (U.S.)

Potential enhancements to addressing programmatic risk in the tank waste remediation system (TWRS) program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brothers, A.; Fassbender, L.; Bilyard, G.; Levine, L.

1996-04-01

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted a Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management methodology development task. The objective of this task was to develop risk management methodology focused on (1) the use of programmatic risk information in making TWRS architecture selection decisions and (2) the identification/evaluation/selection of TWRS risk-handling actions. Methods for incorporating programmatic risk/uncertainty estimates into trade studies are provided for engineers/analysts. Methods for identifying, evaluating, and selecting risk-handling actions are provided for managers. The guidance provided in this report is designed to help decision-makers make difficult judgments. Current approaches to architecture selection decisions and identification/evaluation/selection of risk-handling actions are summarized. Three categories of sources of programmatic risk (parametric, external, and organizational) are examined. Multiple analytical approaches are presented to enhance the current alternative generation and analysis (AGA) and risk-handling procedures. Appendix A describes some commercially available risk management software tools and Appendix B provides a brief introduction to quantification of risk attitudes. The report provides three levels of analysis for enhancing the AGA Procedure: (1) qualitative discussion coupled with estimated uncertainty ranges for scores in the alternatives-by-criteria matrix; (2) formal elicitation of probability distributions for the alternative scores; and (3) a formal, more structured, comprehensive risk analysis. A framework is also presented for using the AGA programmatic risk analysis results in making better decisions. The report also presents two levels of analysis for evaluation and selection of risk-handling actions: (1) qualitative analysis and judgmental rankings of alternative actions, and (2) Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART)

Retrospective Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy and Risk Factors for Pneumothorax in Simultaneous Localizations of Multiple Pulmonary Nodules Using Hook Wire System.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Yan; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Pan, Xiang-Long; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Hai; Yuan, Mei; Kong, Ling-Yan; Pu, Xue-Hui; Chen, Liang; Yu, Tong-Fu

2017-09-01

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of the hook wire system in the simultaneous localizations for multiple pulmonary nodules (PNs) before video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS), and to clarify the risk factors for pneumothorax associated with the localization procedure. Between January 2010 and February 2016, 67 patients (147 nodules, Group A) underwent simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs using a hook wire system. The demographic, localization procedure-related information and the occurrence rate of pneumothorax were assessed and compared with a control group (349 patients, 349 nodules, Group B). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for pneumothorax during the localization procedure. All the 147 nodules were successfully localized. Four (2.7%) hook wires dislodged before VATS procedure, but all these four lesions were successfully resected according to the insertion route of hook wire. Pathological diagnoses were acquired for all 147 nodules. Compared with Group B, Group A demonstrated significantly longer procedure time (p pneumothorax (p = 0.019). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that position change during localization procedure (OR 2.675, p = 0.021) and the nodules located in the ipsilateral lung (OR 9.404, p pneumothorax. Simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs using a hook wire system before VATS procedure were safe and effective. Compared with localization for single PN, simultaneous localizations for multiple PNs were prone to the occurrence of pneumothorax. Position change during localization procedure and the nodules located in the ipsilateral lung were independent risk factors for pneumothorax.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

2001-03-01

he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

The construction of power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jihong; Wang, Canlin; Jiang, Xinfan; Ye, Jianhui; Pan, Feilai

2018-02-01

In recent years, large-scale blackout occurred at home and abroad caused widespread concern about the operation of the grid in the world, and the maintenance risk is an important indicator of grid safety. The barrier operation of the circuit breaker exists in the process of overhaul of the power grid. The operation of the different barrier is of great significance to the change of the power flow, thus affecting the safe operation of the system. Most of the grid operating status evaluation index system did not consider the risk of maintenance, to this end, this paper from the security, economy, quality and cleanliness of the four angles, build the power grid operation index system considering the risk of maintenance.

Expanding pedestrian injury risk to the body region level: how to model passive safety systems in pedestrian injury risk functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

2015-01-01

Assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) plays a crucial role in accident research. A common way to evaluate the effectiveness of new systems is to determine the potentials for injury severity reduction. Because injury risk functions describe the probability of an injury of a given severity conditional on a technical accident severity (closing speed, delta V, barrier equivalent speed, etc.), they are predestined for such evaluations. Recent work has stated an approach on how to model the pedestrian injury risk in pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents as a family of functions. This approach gave explicit and easily interpretable formulae for the injury risk conditional on the closing speed of the car. These results are extended to injury risk functions for pedestrian body regions. Starting with a double-checked German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) pedestrian-to-car accident data set (N = 444) and a functional-anatomical definition of the body regions, investigations on the influence of specific body regions on the overall injury severity will be presented. As the measure of injury severity, the ISSx, a rescaled version of the well-known Injury Severity Score (ISS), was used. Though traditional ISS is computed by summation of the squares of the 3 most severe injured body regions, ISSx is computed by the summation of the exponentials of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severities of the 3 most severely injured body regions. The exponentials used are scaled to fit the ISS range of values between 0 and 75. Three body regions (head/face/neck, thorax, hip/legs) clearly dominated abdominal and upper extremity injuries; that is, the latter 2 body regions had no influence at all on the overall injury risk over the range of technical accident severities. Thus, the ISSx is well described by use of the injury codes from the same body regions for any pedestrian injury severity. As a mathematical consequence, the ISSx becomes explicitly

Flexibility-Based Evaluation of Variable Generation Acceptability in Korean Power System

OpenAIRE

Chang-Gi Min; Mun-Kyeom Kim

2017-01-01

This study proposes an evaluation method for variable generation (VG) acceptability with an adequate level of power system flexibility. In this method, a risk index referred to as the ramping capability shortage expectation (RSE) is used to quantify flexibility. The RSE value of the current power system is selected as the adequate level of flexibility (i.e., RSE criterion). VG acceptability is represented by the VG penetration level for the RSE criterion. The proposed evaluation method was ap...

An approach to evaluating system well-being in engineering reliability applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billinton, Roy; Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mahmud; Aboreshaid, Saleh

1995-01-01

This paper presents an approach to evaluating the degree of system well-being of an engineering system. The functionality of the system is identified by healthy, marginal and risk states. The state definitions permit the inclusion of deterministic considerations in the probabilistic indices used to monitor the system well-being. A technique is developed to determine the three operating state probabilities based on minimal path concepts. The identified indices provide system engineers with additional information on the degree of system well-being in the form of system health and margin state probabilities. A basic planning objective should be to design a system such that the probabilities of the health and risk states are acceptable. The application of the technique is illustrated in this paper using a relatively simple network

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sascha Düerkop

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

2006-01-01

This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

Identification of the microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vinneraas, Bjoern [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biometry and Engineering, Box 7032, SE-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, Caroline [Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Department of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, SE-171 82 Solna (Sweden); Nordin, Annika [National Veterinary Institute, Department of Wild Life, Fish and Environment, SE-751 89 Uppsala (Sweden)

2006-08-31

The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas has raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of a biogas upgrading system were sampled and cultured for microbial content. On average, 10{sup 5} cfu ml{sup -1} were found in the condensate water throughout the system, while in the gas between 10 and 100 cfu m{sup -3} were found. The microorganisms were subjected to further identification and found to represent a wide variety, e.g. fungi and spore-forming and non-spore-forming bacteria, including species such as Enterobacteriaceae. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas corresponded to the densities in sampled natural gas, which also held 10-100 cfu m{sup -3}. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e.g. cookers and refuelling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (author)

Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paulsen, Samuel S.

2009-08-25

Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km 2 (570-mi 2 ) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation

Place of Risk Analysis in Tax Audit: Some Country Practices and an Evaluation for Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feride BAKAR

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The use of information technologies and risk analysis have become an important position in tax audit, as in all fields. Systems used in this area, are different in many ways and for this reason, making comparative study, evaluating best practices and its effects to results should be examined. In this study, development of risk analysis systems in Australia, United Kingdom, Austria, the USA and their place ensuring effectiveness of tax audit was investigated. Thus, some findings were made for Turkey with help of examining the current status of tax audits based on risk analysis. In the past, risk analysis was used for providing effectiveness of tax audit, but today the purpose has evolved to focus increasing tax compliance. For realization of this purpose in Turkey, disclosure of risk areas in general, informing taxpayers and establishment of cooperative compliance model with large business is needed.

Systems approach to project risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

2002-01-01

This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

Development and validation of an automated delirium risk assessment system (Auto-DelRAS) implemented in the electronic health record system.

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Kyoung-Ja; Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

2018-01-01

A key component of the delirium management is prevention and early detection. To develop an automated delirium risk assessment system (Auto-DelRAS) that automatically alerts health care providers of an intensive care unit (ICU) patient's delirium risk based only on data collected in an electronic health record (EHR) system, and to evaluate the clinical validity of this system. Cohort and system development designs were used. Medical and surgical ICUs in two university hospitals in Seoul, Korea. A total of 3284 patients for the development of Auto-DelRAS, 325 for external validation, 694 for validation after clinical applications. The 4211 data items were extracted from the EHR system and delirium was measured using CAM-ICU (Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit). The potential predictors were selected and a logistic regression model was established to create a delirium risk scoring algorithm to construct the Auto-DelRAS. The Auto-DelRAS was evaluated at three months and one year after its application to clinical practice to establish the predictive validity of the system. Eleven predictors were finally included in the logistic regression model. The results of the Auto-DelRAS risk assessment were shown as high/moderate/low risk on a Kardex screen. The predictive validity, analyzed after the clinical application of Auto-DelRAS after one year, showed a sensitivity of 0.88, specificity of 0.72, positive predictive value of 0.53, negative predictive value of 0.94, and a Youden index of 0.59. A relatively high level of predictive validity was maintained with the Auto-DelRAS system, even one year after it was applied to clinical practice. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluation of biologic occupational risk control practices: quality indicators development and validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Renata Ferreira; Gryschek, Anna Luíza F P L; Izumi Nichiata, Lúcia Yasuko; Lacerda, Rúbia Aparecida; Ciosak, Suely Itsuko; Gir, Elucir; Padoveze, Maria Clara

2010-05-01

There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists' assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective. Copyright (c) 2010 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

[Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

2011-10-01

The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

1986-01-01

Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

Opinions of Nurses About the Evaluation of Risk of Falling Among Inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Atay, Selma; Vurur, Sevda; Erdugan, Necla

Patient falls and fall-related injuries are an important problem for patients, relatives, caregivers, and the health system at large. This study aims to identify opinions of nurses about the risk of falling among patients staying in hospitals. This study uses a qualitative descriptive design and employs a semistructured interview method to identify the opinions and experiences of nurses about patient falls. This study evaluated the opinions of a total of 12 staff nurses. It was found that nurses consider patients in the postoperative period to be most prone to falls. They think that most falls take place during transfers and that the medical diagnosis of the patient plays a crucial role in fall incidents. The most important problem associated with patient falls was symptoms of traumatic brain injury. According to the participating nurses, the risk of fall for every patient should be evaluated upon admission. Measures that the nurses take against patient falls include raising the bed's side rails and securing the bed brakes. The findings of this research suggest that in-service training programs about the evaluation of the risk of falling should be organized for nurses. Guidelines should be developed for patients with different levels of risk of falling. It is suggested that nurses should be in charge of training patients who are conscious, their relatives, and caregiver personnel. The training of nurses and caregivers helps to prevent the falls of inpatients.

A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Chenarani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Zernike, W; Henderson, A

1999-06-01

This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

2013-06-01

The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimmerman, B.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

Science.gov (United States)

... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among youth and adults, including— Behaviors that contribute ...

Nuclear data evaluation method and evaluation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Tingjin

1995-01-01

The evaluation methods and Nuclear Data Evaluation System have been developed in China. A new version of the system has been established on Micro-VAX2 computer, which is supported by IAEA under the technology assistance program. The flow chart of Chinese Nuclear Data Evaluation System is shown out. For last ten years, the main efforts have been put on the double differential cross section, covariance data and evaluated data library validation. The developed evaluation method and Chinese Nuclear Data Evaluation System have been widely used at CNDC and in Chinese Nuclear Data Network for CENDL. (1 tab., 15 figs.)

7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk... Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. The articles listed in...(b), pending the completion of an evaluation by APHIS of the potential pest risks associated with the...

Health risk assessment linked with purified biogas injection in a natural gas distribution system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Evanno, Sebastien

2009-06-01

This document provides for the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Afsset) expressed after the collective expertise carried out for the evaluation of the health risk linked with biogas injection in the natural gas distribution system. Following the recommendations issued by the Afsset, works have been started in order to collect the sludge-derived biogas and to analyse its composition. These data will be used to assess accidental risks (resulting from biogas valorisation, pipeline transport, industrial and domestic energy valorisation) as well as health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas distribution system)

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay

2017-12-20

Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of

Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Risk Taking Interact to Predict Left-Frontal EEG Asymmetry

OpenAIRE

Black, Chelsea L.; Goldstein, Kim E.; LaBelle, Denise R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relat...

A unified framework for evaluating the risk of re-identification of text de-identification tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Scaiano, Martin; Middleton, Grant; Arbuckle, Luk; Kolhatkar, Varada; Peyton, Liam; Dowling, Moira; Gipson, Debbie S; El Emam, Khaled

2016-10-01

It has become regular practice to de-identify unstructured medical text for use in research using automatic methods, the goal of which is to remove patient identifying information to minimize re-identification risk. The metrics commonly used to determine if these systems are performing well do not accurately reflect the risk of a patient being re-identified. We therefore developed a framework for measuring the risk of re-identification associated with textual data releases. We apply the proposed evaluation framework to a data set from the University of Michigan Medical School. Our risk assessment results are then compared with those that would be obtained using a typical contemporary micro-average evaluation of recall in order to illustrate the difference between the proposed evaluation framework and the current baseline method. We demonstrate how this framework compares against common measures of the re-identification risk associated with an automated text de-identification process. For the probability of re-identification using our evaluation framework we obtained a mean value for direct identifiers of 0.0074 and a mean value for quasi-identifiers of 0.0022. The 95% confidence interval for these estimates were below the relevant thresholds. The threshold for direct identifier risk was based on previously used approaches in the literature. The threshold for quasi-identifiers was determined based on the context of the data release following commonly used de-identification criteria for structured data. Our framework attempts to correct for poorly distributed evaluation corpora, accounts for the data release context, and avoids the often optimistic assumptions that are made using the more traditional evaluation approach. It therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the true probability of re-identification. This framework should be used as a basis for computing re-identification risk in order to more realistically evaluate future text de-identification tools

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

Development of an effective risk management system in a teaching hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Adibi, Hossein; Khalesi, Nader; Ravaghi, Hamid; Jafari, Mahdi; Jeddian, Ali Reza

2012-09-21

Unsafe health care provision is a main cause of increased mortality rate amongst hospitalized patients all over the world. A system approach to medical error and its reduction is crucial that is defined by clinical and administrative activities undertaken to identify, evaluate, and reduce the risk of injury. The aim of this study was to develop and implement a risk management system in a large teaching hospital in Iran, especially of the basis of WHO guidelines and patient safety context. WHO draft guideline and patient safety reports from different countries were reviewed for defining acceptable framework of risk management system. Also current situation of mentioned hospital in safety matter and dimensions of patient safety culture was evaluated using HSOPSC questionnaire of AHRQ. With adjustment of guidelines and hospital status, the conceptual framework was developed and next it was validated in expert panel. The members of expert panel were selected according to their role and functions and also their experiences in risk management and patient safety issues. The validated framework consisted of designating a leader and coordinator core, defining communications, and preparing the infrastructure for patient safety education and culture-building. That was developed on the basis of some values and commitments and included reactive and proactive approaches. The findings of reporting activities demonstrated that at least 3.6 percent of hospitalized patients have experienced adverse events and 5.3 percent of all deaths in the hospital related with patient safety problems. Beside the average score of 12 dimensions of patient safety culture was 46.2 percent that was considerably low. The "non-punitive responses to error" had lowest positive score with 21.2 percent. It is of paramount importance for all health organizations to lay necessary foundations in order to identify safety risks and improve the quality of care. Inadequate participation of staff in education

Reliability evaluation of deregulated electric power systems for planning applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehsani, A.; Ranjbar, A.M.; Jafari, A.; Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M.

2008-01-01

In a deregulated electric power utility industry in which a competitive electricity market can influence system reliability, market risks cannot be ignored. This paper (1) proposes an analytical probabilistic model for reliability evaluation of competitive electricity markets and (2) develops a methodology for incorporating the market reliability problem into HLII reliability studies. A Markov state space diagram is employed to evaluate the market reliability. Since the market is a continuously operated system, the concept of absorbing states is applied to it in order to evaluate the reliability. The market states are identified by using market performance indices and the transition rates are calculated by using historical data. The key point in the proposed method is the concept that the reliability level of a restructured electric power system can be calculated using the availability of the composite power system (HLII) and the reliability of the electricity market. Two case studies are carried out over Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) to illustrate interesting features of the proposed methodology

Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, V. de.

1984-01-01

This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

Managing health and safety risks: Implications for tailoring health and safety management system practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Willmer, D R; Haas, E J

2016-01-01

As national and international health and safety management system (HSMS) standards are voluntarily accepted or regulated into practice, organizations are making an effort to modify and integrate strategic elements of a connected management system into their daily risk management practices. In high-risk industries such as mining, that effort takes on added importance. The mining industry has long recognized the importance of a more integrated approach to recognizing and responding to site-specific risks, encouraging the adoption of a risk-based management framework. Recently, the U.S. National Mining Association led the development of an industry-specific HSMS built on the strategic frameworks of ANSI: Z10, OHSAS 18001, The American Chemistry Council's Responsible Care, and ILO-OSH 2001. All of these standards provide strategic guidance and focus on how to incorporate a plan-do-check-act cycle into the identification, management and evaluation of worksite risks. This paper details an exploratory study into whether practices associated with executing a risk-based management framework are visible through the actions of an organization's site-level management of health and safety risks. The results of this study show ways that site-level leaders manage day-to-day risk at their operations that can be characterized according to practices associated with a risk-based management framework. Having tangible operational examples of day-to-day risk management can serve as a starting point for evaluating field-level risk assessment efforts and their alignment to overall company efforts at effective risk mitigation through a HSMS or other processes.

Results of the application of the Risk Evaluation System in Radiotherapy (RESRA) in radiotherapy facilities in Mexico; Resultados de la aplicacion del Sistema de Evaluacion del Riesgo en Radioterapia (SEVRRA) en instalaciones de radioterapia en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paz G, A.; Godinez S, V., E-mail: abpaz@cnsns.gob.mx [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, Dr. Jose Ma. Barragan No. 779, Col. Narvarte, 03020 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

2013-10-15

The present work describes the main results of the risk evaluation for some radiotherapy treatments with lineal accelerators, cobalt 60, brachytherapy of high dose rate and brachytherapy of low dose rate that are realize in Mexico. These evaluations were carried out applying the risk matrices method with the tool computer risk evaluation system in radiotherapy, accessible for the national users through internet, and developed by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias in Mexico, in cooperation with the Forum of Ibero-American regulators. The used methodology is based on the risk matrices method that is a mathematical tool for the risk evaluation, and it was centered in the evaluation from the risk to which are exposed the patients, the occupational exposed personnel and people in general, by the mechanical faults of the treatment equipment s, bad calibrations, human errors, or any other event initiator of accidents. The events initiators of accidents are defined as those undesirable events that can produce and administration of an excessive dose or a sub-dose of the prescribed dose by the doctor, to the planned objective volume, or undesirable dose to the patient's regions or dose to occupational exposed personnel or people in general. The barriers are the actions and systems as mechanical switches, interlocks or alarms, dedicated to avoid that these accidents take place. The evaluation analysis of the risk developed by the members of the Forum for radiotherapy facilities together with the software RESRA has demonstrated to be useful in the prevention of many possible accidents that have happened in the past in other facilities and can avoid many others in the future. (Author)

Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

Science.gov (United States)

Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

2017-09-01

Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

The reliability-quality relationship for quality systems and quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg; Rahaman, Faiad; Urban, Jason M

2012-01-01

Engineering reliability typically refers to the probability that a system, or any of its components, will perform a required function for a stated period of time and under specified operating conditions. As such, reliability is inextricably linked with time-dependent quality concepts, such as maintaining a state of control and predicting the chances of losses from failures for quality risk management. Two popular current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) and quality risk management tools, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and root cause analysis (RCA) are examples of engineering reliability evaluations that link reliability with quality and risk. Current concepts in pharmaceutical quality and quality management systems call for more predictive systems for maintaining quality; yet, the current pharmaceutical manufacturing literature and guidelines are curiously silent on engineering quality. This commentary discusses the meaning of engineering reliability while linking the concept to quality systems and quality risk management. The essay also discusses the difference between engineering reliability and statistical (assay) reliability. The assurance of quality in a pharmaceutical product is no longer measured only "after the fact" of manufacturing. Rather, concepts of quality systems and quality risk management call for designing quality assurance into all stages of the pharmaceutical product life cycle. Interestingly, most assays for quality are essentially static and inform product quality over the life cycle only by being repeated over time. Engineering process reliability is the fundamental concept that is meant to anticipate quality failures over the life cycle of the product. Reliability is a well-developed theory and practice for other types of manufactured products and manufacturing processes. Thus, it is well known to be an appropriate index of manufactured product quality. This essay discusses the meaning of reliability and its linkages with quality

Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Henan

2017-12-01

Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

Objectives and present status of the German risk evaluation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.; Heuser, F.W.

1977-01-01

For the German risk evaluation study, analogous to the Rasmussen report (WASH--1400), embarked upon in June 1976, the Kernkraftwerk Biblis B serves as the plant of reference. The first interim results are available for various sub-headings of the study. The main finding seems to be the decisive importance of the containment in limiting the accident consequences even in those cases where, on account of postulated failure of safety systems, the melt down of the reactor core is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de

Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinying Li

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

1995-09-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project%农业高新技术投资项目风险评价

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

陆迁; 苗姗姗

2005-01-01

The agricultural high-tech investment project (AHIP) is characterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agricultural projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity analysis and probability are defective. Therefore, this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.

A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

OpenAIRE

Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

2015-01-01

As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

2017-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathiak, E.

1984-01-01

The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

2012-02-01

The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

Science.gov (United States)

Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

2017-09-01

To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

A Posterior Circulation Ischemia Risk Score System to Assist the Diagnosis of Dizziness.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ru; Su, Rui; Deng, Mingzhu; Liu, Jia; Hu, Qing; Song, Zhi

2018-02-01

We aimed to establish a risk score system without radio-image examination, which could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and posterior circulation ischemia (PCI) rapidly from the other dizzy patients. We analyzed 304 patients with vertigo (50% PCI). The attributes with more significant contributions were selected as the risk factors for the PCI risk score system, and every one of them was assigned a value according to their respective odds ratio values. We also compared the respective receiver operating characteristic curves of the 3 diagnostic methods (PCI score system, ABCD 2 , and Essen score systems) to evaluate their prediction effectiveness. Nine risk factors were ultimately selected for PCI score system, including high blood pressure (1'), diabetes mellitus (1'), ischemic stroke (1'), rotating and rocking (-1'), difficulty in speech (5'), tinnitus (-5'), limb and sensory deficit (5'), gait ataxia (1'), and limb ataxia (5'). According to their respective PCI risk scores, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups: low risk (≤0', risk 95.0%). When 0' was selected as a cutoff point for differentiating the patients with PCI from patients without PCI, the sensitivity was 94.1%, with a specificity of 41.4%. The areas under the receiver operator curve value of PCI score system was .82 (P = .000), much higher than the areas under the receiver operator curve value of ABCD 2 (.69, P = .000) and that of the Essen system (.67, P = .000) CONCLUSION: The PCI score system could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and PCI rapidly from the other dizzy patients. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new method to evaluate human-robot system performance

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, G.; Weisbin, C. R.

2003-01-01

One of the key issues in space exploration is that of deciding what space tasks are best done with humans, with robots, or a suitable combination of each. In general, human and robot skills are complementary. Humans provide as yet unmatched capabilities to perceive, think, and act when faced with anomalies and unforeseen events, but there can be huge potential risks to human safety in getting these benefits. Robots provide complementary skills in being able to work in extremely risky environments, but their ability to perceive, think, and act by themselves is currently not error-free, although these capabilities are continually improving with the emergence of new technologies. Substantial past experience validates these generally qualitative notions. However, there is a need for more rigorously systematic evaluation of human and robot roles, in order to optimize the design and performance of human-robot system architectures using well-defined performance evaluation metrics. This article summarizes a new analytical method to conduct such quantitative evaluations. While the article focuses on evaluating human-robot systems, the method is generally applicable to a much broader class of systems whose performance needs to be evaluated.

High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W.

1993-09-01

The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failure modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant

High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1993-09-01

The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failure modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant.

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2013-04-01

Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from

A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

2014-01-01

Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

1999-11-01

For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cuiping Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiru Zhao

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

OpenAIRE

Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

1992-01-01

Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-01

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

Using proliferation risk as a design metric in the development of nuclear systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beard, C.; Lebouf, R.

2001-01-01

The necessity has arisen for newly proposed nuclear systems to be evaluated with regard to their potential aid to any proliferation. Thus, a mechanism is needed to introduce nonproliferation as a measure in the design phase of a new nuclear system. To accomplish this, a methodology for quantifying and measuring the proliferation risk of proposed system options is required. Such quantification has its difficulties due to inherent uncertainty, e.g. what is the probability that a quantity of material will be stolen in a given situation? Also, the lack of data on such occurrences makes the task of quantification nearly insurmountable. A systematic approach is necessary to estimate the proliferation risk. Currently, an advanced nuclear power system, the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW) program has been initiated to develop a system that will concurrently generate electricity while destroying long-lived radioactive isotopes. Therefore, because of the issues noted above, an effort to introduce proliferation risk into the design phase has been started. The purpose of this paper is to review previous work in quantification of proliferation risk in an effort to develop the proper basis for the current work. It should be noted that while proliferation on a national level has been studied extensively, efforts to quantify proliferation risk of individual nuclear systems or processes have been limited. Consequently, the available literature base is relatively sparse. (author)

Using proliferation risk as a design metric in the development of nuclear systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beard, C.; Lebouf, R. [Texas Univ., Austin, TX (United States). Nuclear Engineering Teaching Lab.

2001-07-01

The necessity has arisen for newly proposed nuclear systems to be evaluated with regard to their potential aid to any proliferation. Thus, a mechanism is needed to introduce nonproliferation as a measure in the design phase of a new nuclear system. To accomplish this, a methodology for quantifying and measuring the proliferation risk of proposed system options is required. Such quantification has its difficulties due to inherent uncertainty, e.g. what is the probability that a quantity of material will be stolen in a given situation? Also, the lack of data on such occurrences makes the task of quantification nearly insurmountable. A systematic approach is necessary to estimate the proliferation risk. Currently, an advanced nuclear power system, the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW) program has been initiated to develop a system that will concurrently generate electricity while destroying long-lived radioactive isotopes. Therefore, because of the issues noted above, an effort to introduce proliferation risk into the design phase has been started. The purpose of this paper is to review previous work in quantification of proliferation risk in an effort to develop the proper basis for the current work. It should be noted that while proliferation on a national level has been studied extensively, efforts to quantify proliferation risk of individual nuclear systems or processes have been limited. Consequently, the available literature base is relatively sparse. (author)

Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants. Risk-screening of environmental stressors and a comparison of hardware unavailability with an existing analog system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, M.; Vesely, W.E.

1998-01-01

In this report, we present a screening study to identify environmental stressors for digital instrumentation and control (I ampersand C) systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP) which can be potentially risk-significant, and compare the hardware unavailability of such a system with that of its existing analog counterpart. The stressors evaluated are temperature, humidity, vibration, radiation, electro-magnetic interference (EMI), and smoke. The results of risk-screening for an example plant, subject to some bounding assumptions and based on relative changes in plant risk (core damage frequency impacts of the stressors), indicate that humidity, EMI from lightning, and smoke can be potentially risk-significant. Risk from other sources of EMI could not be evaluated for a lack of data. Risk from temperature appears to be insignificant as that from the assumed levels of vibrations. A comparison of the hardware unavailability of the existing analog Safety Injection Actuation System (SIAS) in the example plant with that of an assumed digital upgrade of the system indicates that system unavailability may be more sensitive to the level of redundancy in elements of the digital system than to the environmental and operational variations involved. The findings of this study can be used to focus activities relating to the regulatory basis for digital I ampersand C upgrades in NPPs, including identification of dominant stressors, data-gathering, equipment qualification, and requirements to limit the effects of environmental stressors. 30 refs., 8 figs., 26 tabs

Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

1987-07-01

A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did not perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program

Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

2011-03-01

The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture

Science.gov (United States)

Muller, George; Perkins, Casey J.; Lancaster, Mary J.; MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Patrick, Scott W.; Key, Bradley Robert

2015-07-28

Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture are described. According to one aspect, a computer-implemented security evaluation method includes accessing information regarding a physical architecture and a cyber architecture of a facility, building a model of the facility comprising a plurality of physical areas of the physical architecture, a plurality of cyber areas of the cyber architecture, and a plurality of pathways between the physical areas and the cyber areas, identifying a target within the facility, executing the model a plurality of times to simulate a plurality of attacks against the target by an adversary traversing at least one of the areas in the physical domain and at least one of the areas in the cyber domain, and using results of the executing, providing information regarding a security risk of the facility with respect to the target.

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

USES 2.0, The Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances, version 2.0 ; supplement to EUSES

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linders JBHJ; Jager DT; CSR; ECO

1997-01-01

This interim report describes the updated risk assessment system for agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. It will be integrated with the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, EUSES 1.0, into USES 2.0, the second version of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of

Safety evaluations by means of the method use of the risk matrix in radiotherapy treatments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, L.; Diaz, A.; Correa, T.; Gonzalez, Y.

2014-08-01

The quality of a radiotherapy treatment is linked to multidisciplinary factors that need to be taken into account in combined form whenever an evaluation of the safety is carried out. Knowing the accidents happened in this area, and to guarantee their prevention, the causes and sequences that could behave to them should be controlled, for what is necessary to make periodic evaluations of the same one. Our objective was to carry out the safety evaluation to the treatment process of a radiotherapy service and to identify the causes and consequences that can cause these accidental exposures, for patients, worker or people, from the equipment installation until the treatment completion. The method of Risk Matrices was used, by means the SEVRRA system carried out by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias of Mexico; this system allows to carry out a combined analysis of the occurrence frequency of the event initiator, the probability of human errors or barrier failures and the graveness of the consequences, facilitating the identification of the associated risk to the radiotherapy procedures. The method establishes priorities for the risk administration and identifies the main causes that could cause accidental exposures; also allows preventing the accidents occurrence using risk criterions that take into account the probability and magnitude of the potential exposures. This method, although does not allow to quantify numerically the risk, makes possible to classify it in levels, what is enough to establish priorities, without carrying out risks analysis but precise but more expensive. As a result we obtained that for the Co 60 77% of the treatments, is realized with low or half risk and 23% with high risk; the work load that is elevated in our case, intervenes directly in 46 initiators, in second and third place, the non realization of a portal image in the first treatment section and in the weekly continuation, as a consequences reducer, but these

Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

1991-09-01

A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

"System evaluates system": method for evaluating the efficiency of IS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dita Blazkova

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In paper I deal with the possible solution of evaluating the efficiency of information systems in companies. The large number of existing methods used to address the efficiency of information systems is dependent on the subjective responses of the user that may distort output evaluation. Therefore, I propose a method that eliminates the subjective opinion of a user as the primary data source. Applications, which I suggests as part of the method, collects relevant data. In this paper I describe the application in detail. This is a follow-on program on any system that runs parallel with it. The program automatically collects data for evaluation. Data include mainly time data, positions the mouse cursor, printScreens, i-grams of previous, etc. I propose a method of evaluation of the data, which identifies the degree of the friendliness of the information system to the user. Thus, the output of the method is the conclusion whether users, who work with the information system, can handle effectively work with it.

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

Hazard evaluation and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritzsche, A.F.

1986-01-01

The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PENSION FUNDS WITH FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SERDAR KORUKOĞLU

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Financial rating and ranking firms often use linguistic instead of numerical values. When input data are mostly qualitative and are based on subjective knowledge of experts, the Fuzzy Set Theory provides a solid mathematical model to represent and handle these data. The aim of this study is developing a fuzzy expert model to evaluate the performance of the pension funds by using their risk and return values. The method is used for evaluating the performance of the randomly selected of twenty seven Turkish pension funds. The obtained results proved that the fuzzy expert system is appropriate and consistent for performance evaluation.

Configuration of risk monitor system by plant defense-in-depth risk monitor and reliability monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Lind Morten; Yang Ming; Hashim Muhammad; Zhang Zhijian

2012-01-01

A new method of risk monitor system of a nuclear power plant has been proposed from the aspect by what degree of safety functions incorporated in the plant system is maintained by multiple barriers of defense-in-depth (DiD). Wherein, the central idea is plant DiD risk monitor and reliability monitor derived from the five aspects of (1) design principle of nuclear safety based on DiD concept, (2) definition of risk and risk to be monitored, (3) severe accident phenomena as major risk, (4) scheme of risk ranking, and (5) dynamic risk display. In this paper, the overall frame of the proposed risk monitor system is summarized and the detailed discussion is made on major items such as definition of risk and risk ranking, anatomy of fault occurrence, two-layer configuration of risk monitor, how to configure individual elements of plant DiD risk monitor, and lastly how to apply for a PWR safety system. (author)

Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castellanos Abella, E.A.

2007-01-01

his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: Systems science approach to change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivo P Janecka

2014-03-01

Full Text Available BackgroundMedicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases.There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One- it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two- it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Material / MethodPublic domain records of change, during the last fifty years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results / Conclusions Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems’ relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems.From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.

Evaluating the Cost, Safety, and Proliferation Risks of Small Floating Nuclear Reactors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Michael J; Abdulla, Ahmed; Morgan, M Granger

2017-11-01

It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid-century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks. One such deployment paradigm is the build-own-operate-return model. Because returning small land-based reactors containing spent fuel is infeasible, we evaluate the cost, safety, and proliferation risks of a system in which small modular reactors are manufactured in a factory, and then deployed to a customer nation on a floating platform. This floating small modular reactor would be owned and operated by a single entity and returned unopened to the developed state for refueling. We developed a decision model that allows for a comparison of floating and land-based alternatives considering key International Atomic Energy Agency plant-siting criteria. Abandoning onsite refueling is beneficial, and floating reactors built in a central facility can potentially reduce the risk of cost overruns and the consequences of accidents. However, if the floating platform must be built to military-grade specifications, then the cost would be much higher than a land-based system. The analysis tool presented is flexible, and can assist planners in determining the scope of risks and uncertainty associated with different deployment options. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Automated systems to identify relevant documents in product risk management

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Product risk management involves critical assessment of the risks and benefits of health products circulating in the market. One of the important sources of safety information is the primary literature, especially for newer products which regulatory authorities have relatively little experience with. Although the primary literature provides vast and diverse information, only a small proportion of which is useful for product risk assessment work. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the possibility of using text mining to automate the identification of useful articles, which will reduce the time taken for literature search and hence improving work efficiency. In this study, term-frequency inverse document-frequency values were computed for predictors extracted from the titles and abstracts of articles related to three tumour necrosis factors-alpha blockers. A general automated system was developed using only general predictors and was tested for its generalizability using articles related to four other drug classes. Several specific automated systems were developed using both general and specific predictors and training sets of different sizes in order to determine the minimum number of articles required for developing such systems. Results The general automated system had an area under the curve value of 0.731 and was able to rank 34.6% and 46.2% of the total number of 'useful' articles among the first 10% and 20% of the articles presented to the evaluators when tested on the generalizability set. However, its use may be limited by the subjective definition of useful articles. For the specific automated system, it was found that only 20 articles were required to develop a specific automated system with a prediction performance (AUC 0.748) that was better than that of general automated system. Conclusions Specific automated systems can be developed rapidly and avoid problems caused by subjective definition of useful articles. Thus the efficiency of

The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iosif ZIMAN

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

Evaluation of Additively Manufactured Metals for Use in Oxygen Systems Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tylka, Jonathan; Cooper, Ken; Peralta, Stephen; Wilcutt, Terrence; Hughitt, Brian; Generazio, Edward

2016-01-01

Space Launch System, Commercial Resupply, and Commercial Crew programs have published intent to use additively manufactured (AM) components in propulsion systems and are likely to include various life support systems in the future. Parts produced by these types of additive manufacturing techniques have not been fully evaluated for use in oxygen systems and the inherent risks have not been fully identified. Some areas of primary concern in the SLS process with respect to oxygen compatibility may be the porosity of the printed parts, fundamental differences in microstructure of an AM part as compared to traditional materials, or increased risk of shed metal particulate into an oxygen system. If an ignition were to occur the printed material could be more flammable than components manufactured from a traditional billet of raw material and/or present a significant hazards if not identified and rigorously studied in advance of implementation into an oxygen system.

Endogenous network of firms and systemic risk