WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk evaluation system

  1. Computerized ultrasound risk evaluation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duric, Nebojsa; Littrup, Peter J.; Holsapple, III, Earle; Barter, Robert Henry; Moore, Thomas L.; Azevedo, Stephen G.; Ferguson, Sidney W.

    2007-10-23

    A method and system for examining tissue are provided in which the tissue is maintained in a position so that it may be insonified with a plurality of pulsed spherical or cylindrical acoustic waves. The insonifying acoustic waves are scattered by the tissue so that scattered acoustic radiation including a mix of reflected and transmitted acoustic waves is received. A representation of a portion of the tissue is then derived from the received scattered acoustic radiation.

  2. Operational Mechanism and Evaluation System for Emergency Logistics Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Cheng

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Lots of risks existed in the operating process of emergency logistics especially when natural disasters happened. Both operating mechanism and evaluation system research on Emergency Logistics Risks (ELR are the basis of effective recognizing, preventing and responding to risks, so it’s of great theoretical and practical significance to study the formation and influence mechanism and to establish an evaluating index system for ELR. Firstly, some foundation research about ELR was carried out, including definition, characteristics and classification of ELR. The formation and influence mechanism of ELR were discussed. The research of questionnaire survey offered an objective support for theoretical mechanism and index system establishment. Then, the evaluating index system for ELR was established. This system was a multi-level index system, and mainly evaluated by the decision-making risk, dispatching and commanding risk, organizing and coordinating risk, executing and controlling risk, resources supporting risk and their sub index. The establishment principles and significance of the index system were discussed. Then, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Delphi method were used to confirm the index weight and value. Finally, a case analysis on ELR of Yushu earthquake was conducted to demonstrate the evaluating index system and to evaluate the actual risk level.

  3. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...... the estimates for confounding from other risk factors. We describe some potential unintentional effects when using adjusted risk estimates in evaluating the efficacy and sensitivity of risk-based surveillance systems (SSe). In two examples, we quantify and compare the efficacy and SSe using adjusted and crude...

  4. Software outsourcing risk management: establishing outsourcee evaluation item systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Mei-yuan; LU Yao-bin; ZHANG Jin-long

    2006-01-01

    Outsourcing software development has many advantages as well as inevitable risks. Of these risks, outsourcee selection is one of the most important. A wrong outsourcee selection may have severe adverse influence on the expected outcome of the project. We analyzed the risks involved in outsourcee selection and also provided methods to identify these risks. Using the principles of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Cluster Analysis based on Group Decision Making, we established an index evaluation system to evaluate and select outsourcees. Real world applications of this system demonstrated its effectiveness in evaluating and selecting qualified outsourcees.

  5. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... are: A: to detect an emerging disease or infection, if it becomes introduced into a population; or B: to substantiate freedom from a condition in a population; or C: to detect cases and estimate the prevalence of an endemic condition in a population. In risk-based surveillance these aims should be met...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  6. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

  7. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  8. DESIGNING A HYBRID INTELLIGENT MINING SYSTEM FOR CREDIT RISK EVALUATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this study,a novel hybrid intelligent mining system integrating rough sets theory and support vector machines is developed to extract efficiently association rules from original information table for credit risk evaluation and analysis.In the proposed hybrid intelligent system,support vector machines are used as a tool to extract typical features and filter its noise,which are different from the previous studies where rough sets were only used as a preprocessor for support vector machines.Such an approach could reduce the information table and generate the final knowledge from the reduced information table by rough sets.Therefore,the proposed hybrid intelligent system overcomes the diffi-culty of extracting rules from a trained support vector machine classifier and possesses the robustness which is lacking for rough-set-based approaches.In addition,the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid intelligent system is illustrated with two real-world credit datasets.

  9. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  10. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    OpenAIRE

    Stefano Elia; Alessio Santantonio

    2016-01-01

    The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply) system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between F...

  11. Combining risk-management and computational approaches for trustworthiness evaluation of socio-technical systems

    OpenAIRE

    Gol Mohammadi, N.; Bandyszak, T.; Goldsteen, A.; Kalogiros, C.; Weyer, T.; Moffie, M.; Nasser, B.; Surridge, M

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of existing software evaluation techniques reveals the need for evidence-based evaluation of systems’ trustworthiness. This paper aims at evaluating trustworthiness of socio-technical systems during design-time. Our approach combines two existing evaluation techniques: a computa-tional approach and a risk management approach. The risk-based approach identifies threats to trustworthiness on an abstract level. Computational ap-proaches are applied to evaluate the expected end-to-en...

  12. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  13. Corrosion risk assessment and comprehensive evaluation of ship sea water pipe systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Guangfu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to propose a comprehensive corrosion risk evaluation model based on an analysis of the corrosion risk of sea water pipe systems of ships in service,the modes of potential corrosion and their causes were first analyzed by identifying the origins of the inner and outer corrosion of the sea water pipe systems. In accordance with the matrixes of corrosion occurrence possibility and corrosion risk consequence,a corrosion risk matrix was established for a sea water pipe system. The method for the quantitative evaluation value of each mode of corrosion possibly occurring in a sea water pipe system was then presented. The comprehensive evaluation model of the corrosion was first built using the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP,which can be used for the comprehensive corrosion evaluation. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation value will be expressed as the corrosion risk level and corrosion-induced consequence of the sea water pipe system. This will be very useful for accurately protecting the sea water pipe systems of ships in service from corrosion,thereby attaining the goals of economy,rationality and timeliness.

  14. EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia MÂRŢU; Sorina SOLOMON; Oana POTÂRNICHIE; Liliana PĂSĂRIN; Alexandra MÂRŢU; O. NICOLAICIUC; Irina URSARESCU

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict c...

  15. Physical evaluation system to determine medical risk and indicated dental therapy modifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, F M; Malamed, S F

    1979-08-01

    The physical evaluation system allows the practitioner to rapidly classify each patient according to medical risk and thus to provide dental treatment comfortably and safely. The evaluation system serves as a guide to the level of dental therapy, deisions of management, and modification of treatment for the medically compromised patient. Extensive use of the ADA physical status classification system in dentistry would allow meaningful studies of morbidity and mortality that are related to various management protocols and could conceivably have an impact on insurance schedules associated with psychosedation modalities and general anethesia on an out patient basis. A physical evaluation system cannot substitute for knowledge and good judgment. Recommended categories of physical status and modification of treatment should not be considered as absolutes, but as guides. Wheras the guidelines may appear to be inflexible, they should not be considered as such. Deviation from recommendations is often justified and is expected.

  16. EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia MÂRŢU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict clinical and paraclinical examinations, on establishing the inflammation indices and the periodontal diagnosis. Results: The main cause of the analysis was gingival ble‐ eding; an increased number of smokers was registered among the patients. Out of the local factors, especially important were edentations and malocclusions. Also, a higher number of aggressive generalized periodontites has been noticed. Discussion: The forms of the periodontal diseases are obviously influenced by the systemic context, while the forms of localized chronic periodontitis associa‐ ted with generalized chronic gingivitis reflect the role pla‐ yed by the local risk factors. Conclusions: Stress and smoking represent significant risk factors in the installation of periodontal pathology, with a really alarming preva‐ lence. The aggressive forms of periodontitis showed a higher frequency than that recorded in literature.

  17. Reliability and risk analysis and evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soszynska, Joanna [Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia (Poland)

    2009-07-01

    In the paper the semi-Markov model is applied to describe the port oil pipeline transportation system operation processes and its selected parameters are determined. Multi-state systems are considered and their reliability and risk are found. Next, the joint model of the systems' operation process and the systems' multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. (author)

  18. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert M. Clark; Robert C. Thurnau

    2011-01-01

    Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure.This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie,Wyoming,USA).Using the risk model a cost/benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM),is used to assist in making improved repair,replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes.A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP).Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

  19. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  20. Toward a comprehensive and realistic risk evaluation of engineered nanomaterials in the urban water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duester, Lars; Burkhardt, Michael; Gutleb, Arno C; Kaegi, Ralf; Macken, Ailbhe; Meermann, Björn; von der Kammer, Frank

    2014-01-01

    The European COoperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1205 on the transfer of Engineered Nano materials from wastewater Treatment and stormwatEr to Rivers (ENTER) aims to create and to maintain a trans European network among scientists. This perspective article delivers a brief overview on the status quo at the beginning of the project by addressing the following aspects on engineered nano materials (ENMs) in the urban systems: (1) ENMs that need to be considered on a European level; (2) uncertainties on production-volume estimations; (3) fate of selected ENMs during waste water transport and treatment; (4) analytical strategies for ENM analysis; (5) ecotoxicity of ENMs, and (6) future needs. These six step stones deliver the derivation of the position of the ES1205 network at the beginning of the projects runtime, by defining six fundamental aspects that should be considered in future discussions on risk evaluation of ENMs in urban water systems.

  1. Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) for Offshore Wind - Mock-Up of ERES, Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-01

    The Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES) has been created to set priorities among the environmental risks from offshore wind development. This report follows the conceptual design for ERES and shows what the system would look like, using a web interface created as part of a Knowledge Management System (KMS) for offshore wind. The KMS, called Zephyrus, and ERES for offshore wind, will be populated and made operational in a later phase of the project.

  2. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Evaluation FAQs Additional Evaluation Resources Health & Academics Anti-Bullying Policies and Enumeration: An Infobrief for Local Education ... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the ...

  3. Investigations regarding the evaluation of specific intellectual property production risks within Quality Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakocs, R.; Lupulescu, N. B.

    2016-11-01

    This paper is a theoretical research concerning methods for risk assessment of specific intellectual property production risks that are identified in the product achievement stage within the Quality Management System. In order to realize this, we will start by identifying the specific intellectual property production risks and by proposing some new calculating formulas for minimalizing their negative effects. The theoretical model proposed assessment of specific intellectual property production risks, will be realized based on 3 hypothetical situations. This study intends to reduce the intellectual property risks identified in the production process of commercial societies that have an industrial profile.

  4. Performance of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation in Veterans General Hospital Kaohsiung cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Hsin-Hung; Kang, Pei-Luen; Pan, Jun-Yen; Wu, Tung-Ho; Wu, Chieh-Ten; Lin, Chun-Yao; Lin, Yu-Hsin; Chou, Wan-Ting

    2011-03-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model is a widely-used risk prediction algorithm for in-hospital or 30-day mortality in adult cardiac surgery patients. Recent studies indicated that EuroSCORE tends to overpredict mortality. The aim of our study is to evaluate the validity of EuroSCORE in Veterans General Hospital Kaohsiung (VGHKS) cardiac surgery including a number of different surgical and risk subgroups. From January 2006 to December 2009, 1,240 adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery in VGHKS were included in this study. The study was followed the guidelines of the Ethics Committee of Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan. Both additive and logistic score of all patients were calculated depending on the formula in the official EuroSCORE website. The entire cohort, different surgical type and risk stratification subgroups were analyzed. Model discrimination was tested by determining the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Model calibration was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test. Clinical performance of model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted mortality rates. There were significant differences between the VGHKS and European cardiac surgical populations. The additive score and logistic score for the overall group were 7.16% and 12.88%, respectively. Observed mortality was 10.72% overall, 5.68% for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 4.67% for the mitral valve only and 4.25% for the aortic valve only group. The discriminative ability EuroSCORE was very good in all and various surgical subgroups, with area under the ROC curve from 0.75 to 0.87. The addictive and logistic models of EuroSCORE showed excellent accuracy, 0.839 and 0.845, respectively. Good calibration power was recognized by p value higher than 0.05 for the entire cohort and all subgroups of patients except for isolated CABG. The logistic EuroSCORE model overestimated mortality to different

  5. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  6. Development of multidimensional sequence operation theory with applications to risk evaluation in power system generation scheduling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Sequence operation theory (SOT) is a powerful tool for solving complex probabil-istic problems in power system. However, the basic single dimension SOT cannot satisfy the requirement of multi-state and multi-attribute analysis, which is often the case in actual power system practice. To address this problem, multidimensional sequence operation theory (MSOT) is developed. On the basis of previous research, this paper first categorizes the situations by the number of state variables and the number of attribute values, and defines the multidimensional sequence for single state variable and multiple attribute values, as well as the multidimensional se-quence for multiple state variables and multiple attribute values. Corresponding to those definitions, four types of operations between two discrete multidimensional sequences are derived respectively. Therefore, the sequence is extended from sin-gle dimensional to multidimensional, establishing an integrated theory of multidi-mensional sequence operation. In particular, the basic single dimension SOT can be viewed as a special case of MSOT with only one state variable and one attribute value. Finally, the paper demonstrates the effectiveness of MSOT through an ex-ample of risk evaluation in power system generation scheduling.

  7. Microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinneraas, B.; Nordin, A. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Biometry and Engineering, Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, C. [Swedish Inst. for Infectious Disease Control, Dept. of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, Solna (Sweden)

    2007-12-15

    The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas have raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of biogas upgrading systems were sampled and cultured for microbial content. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas correspond to the densities in sampled natural gas. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e. g. cookers and refueling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (orig.)

  8. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.

  9. Reliability, risk and availability analysis and evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in constant operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolowrocki, Krzysztof [Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia (Poland)

    2009-07-01

    In the paper the multi-state approach to the analysis and evaluation of systems' reliability, risk and availability is practically applied. Theoretical definitions and results are illustrated by the example of their application in the reliability, risk and availability evaluation of an oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline transportation system is considered in the constant in time operation conditions. The system reliability structure and its components reliability functions are not changing in constant operation conditions. The system reliability structure is fixed with a high accuracy. Whereas, the input reliability characteristics of the pipeline components are not sufficiently exact because of the lack of statistical data necessary for their estimation. The results may be considered as an illustration of the proposed methods possibilities of applications in pipeline systems reliability analysis. (author)

  10. PURE: a web-based decision support system to evaluate pesticide environmental risk for sustainable pest management practices in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yu; Zhang, Minghua

    2012-08-01

    Farmers, policy makers, and other stakeholders seek tools to quantitatively assess pesticide risks for mitigating pesticide impacts on ecosystem and human health. This paper presents the Pesticide Use Risk Evaluation (PURE) decision support system (DSS) for evaluating site-specific pesticide risks to surface water, groundwater, soil, and air across pesticide active ingredient (AI), pesticide product, and field levels. The risk score is determined by the ratio of the predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) to the toxicity value for selected endpoint organism(s); except that the risk score for the air is calculated using the emission potential (EP), which is a pesticide product property for estimating potential volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by California Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA). The risk scores range from 0 to 100, where 0 represents negligible risk while 100 means the highest risk. The procedure for calculating PEC in surface water was evaluated against monitoring data for 41 pesticide AIs, with a statistically significant correlation coefficient of r=0.82 (penvironmental protection organizations in mitigating pesticide use impacts on the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Application of a score system to evaluate the risk of malnutrition in a multiple hospital setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709

  12. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Bladon, Kevin D; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-André; Mathieu, Jérôme; Flannigan, Mike D

    2018-01-01

    The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Software design for professional risk evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, V.; Calea, G.; Amza, G.; Iacobescu, G.; Nitoi, D.; Dimitrescu, A.

    2016-08-01

    Professional risk evaluation represents a complex activity involving each economic operator, with important repercussion upon health and security in work. Article represents an innovative study method, regarding professional risk analyze in which cumulative working posts are evaluated. Work presents a new software that helps in putting together all the working positions from a complex organizational system and analyzing them in order to evaluate the possible risks. Using this software, a multiple analysis can be done like: risk estimation, risk evaluation, estimation of residual risks and finally searching of risk reduction measures.

  14. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manbeck, Harvey B; Hofstetter, Daniel W; Murphy, Dennis J; Puri, Virendra M

    2016-01-01

    On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics-based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess (1) how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2) from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3) whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated.

  15. Online Design Aid for Evaluating Manure Pit Ventilation Systems to Reduce Entry Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey B. Manbeck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available On-farm manure storage pits contain both toxic and asphyxiating gases such as hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane and ammonia. Farmers and service personnel occasionally need to enter these pits to conduct repair and maintenance tasks. One intervention to reduce the toxic and asphyxiating gas exposure risk to farm workers when entering manure pits is manure pit ventilation. This article describes an online computational fluid dynamics based design aid for evaluating the effectiveness of manure pit ventilation systems to reduce the concentrations of toxic and asphyxiating gases in the manure pits. This design aid, developed by a team of agricultural engineering and agricultural safety specialists at Pennsylvania State University, represents the culmination of more than a decade of research and technology development effort. The article includes a summary of the research efforts leading to the online design aid development and describes protocols for using the online design aid, including procedures for data input and for accessing design aid results. Design aid results include gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment curves inside the manure pit and inside the barns above the manure pits, as well as animated motion pictures of individual gas concentration decay and oxygen replenishment in selected horizontal and vertical cut plots in the manure pits and barns. These results allow the user to assess: (1 how long one needs to ventilate the pits to remove toxic and asphyxiating gases from the pit and barn, (2 from which portions of the barn and pit these gases are most and least readily evacuated, and (3 whether or not animals and personnel need to be removed from portions of the barn above the manure pit being ventilated.

  16. Evaluation of nodal reliability risk in a deregulated power system with photovoltaic power penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Qian; Wang, Peng; Goel, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    and customer reliability requirements are correlated with energy and reserve prices. Therefore a new method should be developed to evaluate the impacts of PV power on customer reliability and system reserve deployment in the new environment. In this study, a method based on the pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo......Owing to the intermittent characteristic of solar radiation, power system reliability may be affected with high photovoltaic (PV) power penetration. To reduce large variation of PV power, additional system balancing reserve would be needed. In deregulated power systems, deployment of reserves...... simulation technique has been proposed to evaluate the reserve deployment and customers' nodal reliability with high PV power penetration. The proposed method can effectively model the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of PV power and system operation with high computation efficiency...

  17. Identification of the microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnerås, Björn; Schönning, Caroline; Nordin, Annika

    2006-08-31

    The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas has raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of a biogas upgrading system were sampled and cultured for microbial content. On average, 10(5) cfu ml-1 were found in the condensate water throughout the system, while in the gas between 10 and 100 cfu m-3 were found. The microorganisms were subjected to further identification and found to represent a wide variety, e.g. fungi and spore-forming and non-spore-forming bacteria, including species such as Enterobacteriaceae. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas corresponded to the densities in sampled natural gas, which also held 10-100 cfu m-3. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e.g. cookers and refuelling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low.

  18. Identification of the microbiological community in biogas systems and evaluation of microbial risks from gas usage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinneraas, Bjoern [Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biometry and Engineering, Box 7032, SE-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Schoenning, Caroline [Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Department of Parasitology, Mycology, Environmental Mirobiology and Water, SE-171 82 Solna (Sweden); Nordin, Annika [National Veterinary Institute, Department of Wild Life, Fish and Environment, SE-751 89 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2006-08-31

    The plans for introducing biogas produced from organic waste to the pipe system for natural gas has raised concerns about the risk of transmitting disease via the gas. To assess this risk, condensate water from gas pipes and gas from different parts of a biogas upgrading system were sampled and cultured for microbial content. On average, 10{sup 5} cfu ml{sup -1} were found in the condensate water throughout the system, while in the gas between 10 and 100 cfu m{sup -3} were found. The microorganisms were subjected to further identification and found to represent a wide variety, e.g. fungi and spore-forming and non-spore-forming bacteria, including species such as Enterobacteriaceae. The number of microorganisms found in the biogas corresponded to the densities in sampled natural gas, which also held 10-100 cfu m{sup -3}. Since no pathogens were identified and since the exposure to gas from e.g. cookers and refuelling of cars may only result in the inhalation of small volumes of gas, the risk of spreading disease via biogas was judged to be very low. (author)

  19. A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2011-06-01

    Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

  20. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  1. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  2. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  3. Design and prospective evaluation of a risk-based surveillance system for shrimp grow-out farms in northeast Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Ana Rita; Pereira, Marcelo; Ferreira Neto, Jose Soares; Ferreira, Fernando

    2015-12-01

    The farming of Pacific white shrimp Litopennaeus vannamei in northeast Brazil, has proven to be a promising sector. However, the farming of Pacific white shrimp in Brazil has been affected negatively by the occurrence of viral diseases, threatening this sector's expansion and sustainability. For this reason, the drafting of a surveillance system for early detection and definition of freedom from viral diseases, whose occurrence could result in high economic loses, is of the utmost importance. The stochastic model AquaVigil was implemented to prospectively evaluate different surveillance strategies to determine freedom from disease and identify the strategy with the lowest sampling efforts, making the best use of available resources through risk-based surveillance. The worked example presented was designed for regional application for the state of Ceará and can easily be applied to other Brazilian states. The AquaVigil model can analyse any risk-based surveillance system that considers a similar outline to the strategy here presented.

  4. Risk Quantification and Evaluation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manmohan Singh

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper authors have discussed risk quantification methods and evaluation of risks and decision parameter to be used for deciding on ranking of the critical items, for prioritization of condition monitoring based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM. As time passes any equipment or any product degrades into lower effectiveness and the rate of failure or malfunctioning increases, thereby lowering the reliability. Thus with the passage of time or a number of active tests or periods of work, the reliability of the product or the system, may fall down to a low value known as a threshold value, below which the reliability should not be allowed to dip. Hence, it is necessary to fix up the normal basis for determining the appropriate points in the product life cycle where predictive preventive maintenance may be applied in the programme so that the reliability (the probability of successful functioning can be enhanced, preferably to its original value, by reducing the failure rate and increasing the mean time between failure. It is very important for defence application where reliability is a prime work. An attempt is made to develop mathematical model for risk assessment and ranking them. Based on likeliness coefficient β1 and risk coefficient β2 ranking of the sub-systems can be modelled and used for CBRRCM.Defence Science Journal, Vol. 64, No. 4, July 2014, pp. 378-384, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.6366 

  5. Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of

  6. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...

  7. The application of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for risk stratification in Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Borde

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for predicting mortality and STS risk-score for predicting morbidity in Indian patients after cardiac surgery. Materials and Methods: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores were obtained pre-operatively for 498 consecutive patients. The patients were followed for mortality and various morbidities. The calibration of the scoring systems was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discriminative capacity was estimated by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: The mortality was 1.6%. For EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score C-statics of 5.43 and 6.11 were obtained indicating satisfactory model fit for both the scores. Area under ROC was 0.69 and 0.65 for EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score with P values of 0.068 and 0.15, respectively, indicating poor discriminatory power. Good fit and discrimination was obtained for renal failure, long-stay in hospital, prolonged ventilator support and deep sternal wound infection but the scores failed in predicting risk of reoperation and stroke. Mortality risk was correctly estimated in low ( 5% patients by both scoring systems. Conclusions: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores have satisfactory calibration power in Indian patients but their discriminatory power is poor. Mortality risk was over-estimated by both the scoring systems in high-risk patients. The present study highlights the need for forming a national database and formulating risk stratification tools to provide better quality care to cardiac surgical patients in India.

  8. Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach[S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A.; Ramanujan, Saroja

    2016-01-01

    The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate. PMID:26522778

  9. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

    2011-11-01

    Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energy devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.

  10. Systemic risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Solange Maria; Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés; de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

  11. Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing...

  12. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...

  13. Risk Management Programs for Defense Acquisition Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    The audit objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management programs for Defense acquisition systems. Specifically, we determined whether DoD risk management policies and procedures for Defense acquisition systems were effectively implemented and what impact risk management programs bad on reducing program risks and costs. We also reviewed management controls as they applied to the audit objectives.

  14. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  16. Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

  17. Evaluation Use in Evaluation Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højlund, Steven

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the European Union’s evaluation system and its conduciveness to evaluation use. Taking the European Commission’s LIFE programme as its case, the article makes an empirical contribution to an emerging focus in the literature on the importance of organization...... and institutions when analyzing evaluation use. By focusing on the European Union’s evaluation system the article finds that evaluation use mainly takes place in the European Commission and less so in the European Parliament and the European Council. The main explanatory factors enabling evaluation use relate...... to the system’s formalization of evaluation implementation and use; these factors ensure evaluation quality, timeliness and capacity in the Commission. At the same time, however, the system’s formalization also impedes evaluation use, reducing the direct influence of evaluations on policy-making and effectively...

  18. Computerized Ultrasound Risk Evaluation (CURE) System: Development of Combined Transmission and Reflection Ultrasound with New Reconstruction Algorithms for Breast Imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Littrup, P J; Duric, N; Azevedo, S; Chambers, D; Candy, J V; Johnson, S; Auner, G; Rather, J; Holsapple, E T

    2001-09-07

    Our Computerized Ultrasound Risk Evaluation (CURE) system has been developed to the engineering prototype stage and generated unique data sets of both transmission and reflection ultrasound (US). This paper will help define the clinical underpinnings of the developmental process and interpret the imaging results from a similar perspective. The CURE project was designed to incorporate numerous diagnostic parameters to improve upon two major areas of early breast cancer detection. CURE may provide improved tissue characterization of breast masses and reliable detection of abnormal microcalcifications found in some breast cancers and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Current breast US is limited to mass evaluation, whereas mammography also detects and guides biopsy of malignant calcifications. Screening with CURE remains a distant goal, but improved follow-up of mammographic abnormalities may represent a feasible breakthrough. Improved tissue characterization could result in reduction of the estimated one million benign biopsies each year in the United States, costing up to several billion dollars. Most breast calcifications are benign and comprise-80% of stereotactic biopsies guided by mammography. Ultrasound has the capability of finding some groups of calcifications, but further improvements in resolution should also address tissue characterization to define the soft tissue filling of ducts by DCIS. In this manner, CURE may be able to more accurately identify the malignant calcifications associated with progression of DCIS or early cancers. Currently, high-resolution US images of the breast are performed in the reflection mode at higher frequencies, which also limits depth of penetration. Reconstruction of reflection ultrasound images relies upon acoustic impedance differences in the tissue and includes only direct backscatter of the ultrasound signal. Resolution and tissue contrast of current US continues to improve with denser transducer arrays and image

  19. Application of biomarkers in cancer risk management: evaluation from stochastic clonal evolutionary and dynamic system optimization points of view.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Li

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Aside from primary prevention, early detection remains the most effective way to decrease mortality associated with the majority of solid cancers. Previous cancer screening models are largely based on classification of at-risk populations into three conceptually defined groups (normal, cancer without symptoms, and cancer with symptoms. Unfortunately, this approach has achieved limited successes in reducing cancer mortality. With advances in molecular biology and genomic technologies, many candidate somatic genetic and epigenetic "biomarkers" have been identified as potential predictors of cancer risk. However, none have yet been validated as robust predictors of progression to cancer or shown to reduce cancer mortality. In this Perspective, we first define the necessary and sufficient conditions for precise prediction of future cancer development and early cancer detection within a simple physical model framework. We then evaluate cancer risk prediction and early detection from a dynamic clonal evolution point of view, examining the implications of dynamic clonal evolution of biomarkers and the application of clonal evolution for cancer risk management in clinical practice. Finally, we propose a framework to guide future collaborative research between mathematical modelers and biomarker researchers to design studies to investigate and model dynamic clonal evolution. This approach will allow optimization of available resources for cancer control and intervention timing based on molecular biomarkers in predicting cancer among various risk subsets that dynamically evolve over time.

  20. Safety leadership and systems thinking: application and evaluation of a Risk Management Framework in the mining industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Horberry, Tim

    2017-10-01

    Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safety in high-risk industries. This article contends that applying systems-thinking methods to examine safety leadership can support improved learning from incidents. A case study analysis was undertaken of a large-scale mining landslide incident in which no injuries or fatalities were incurred. A multi-method approach was adopted, in which the Critical Decision Method, Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework and Accimap method were applied to examine the safety leadership decisions and actions which enabled the safe outcome. The approach enabled Rasmussen's predictions regarding safety and performance to be examined in the safety leadership context, with findings demonstrating the distribution of safety leadership across leader and system levels, and the presence of vertical integration as key to supporting the successful safety outcome. In doing so, the findings also demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to examine and learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. The implications, including future research directions, are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a case study analysis, in which systems-thinking methods are applied to the examination of safety leadership decisions and actions during a large-scale mining landslide incident. The findings establish safety leadership as a systems phenomenon, and furthermore, demonstrate the usefulness of applying systems-thinking methods to learn from incidents in terms of what 'went right'. Implications, including future research directions, are discussed.

  1. Evaluation of the contribution of renin angiotensin system polymorphisms to the risk of coronary artery disease among Tunisians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abboud, Nesrine; Ghazouani, Lakhder; Kaabi, Belhassen; Ben-Hadj-Khalifa, Sonia; Addad, Fawzi; Marwen, Mahjoub; Almawi, Wassim Y; Mahjoub, Touhami

    2010-10-01

    Recent studies have identified genetic markers that may directly influence the risk of the coronary artery disease (CAD), in particular the renin angiotensin system genes. Since there are no existing data for the Tunisian population, we investigated the association between these polymorphisms (angiotensin-converting enzyme [ACE] insertion/deletion [Ins/Del]; the angiotensinogen T174M and M235T; and the angiotensin II type 1 receptor A1166C polymorphisms) and CAD in Tunisians. Study subjects comprised 341 cases and 316 age- and sex-matched healthy individuals. Clinical characteristics and other biochemical and environmental risk factors were collected for both. The distribution of the Ins/Del genotypes was significantly different between cases and controls (p = 0.049) with the genotype Ins/Ins identified as a risk, p = 0.02. Similarly, the distributions of the T174M and M235T genotypes were significantly different between cases and controls (p = 0.037 and 0.047, respectively) with 174 M/M and 235 T/T as the risky genotypes (p = 0.001 and 0.026, respectively). However, A1166C genotype frequencies were not significantly different between patients and controls. In conclusion, our results suggest that a significantly higher risk of CAD was associated with the Ins/Del, the M235T, and T174M polymorphisms; other environmental variables such as body mass index; and biochemical variables such as cholesterol.

  2. Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张伟伟; 宋晓琳; 张桂香

    2014-01-01

    A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.

  3. Field efficacy evaluation and post-treatment contamination risk assessment of an ultraviolet disinfection and safe storage system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reygadas, Fermin; Gruber, Joshua S; Ray, Isha; Nelson, Kara L

    2015-11-15

    Inconsistent use of household water treatment and safe storage (HWTS) systems reduces their potential health benefits. Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection is more convenient than some existing HWTS systems, but it does not provide post-treatment residual disinfectant, which could leave drinking water vulnerable to recontamination. In this paper, using as-treated analyses, we report on the field efficacy of a UV disinfection system at improving household drinking water quality in rural Mexico. We further assess the risk of post-treatment contamination from the UV system, and develop a process-based model to better understand household risk factors for recontamination. This study was part of a larger cluster-randomized stepped wedge trial, and the results complement previously published population-level results of the intervention on diarrheal prevalence and water quality. Based on the presence of Escherichia coli (proportion of households with ≥ 1 E. coli/100 mL), we estimated a risk difference of -28.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): -33.9%, -22.1%) when comparing intervention to control households; -38.6% (CI: -48.9%, -28.2%) when comparing post- and pre-intervention results; and -37.1% (CI: -45.2%, -28.9%) when comparing UV disinfected water to alternatives within the household. We found substantial increases in post-treatment E. coli contamination when comparing samples from the UV system effluent (5.0%) to samples taken from the storage container (21.1%) and drinking glasses (26.0%). We found that improved household infrastructure, additional extractions from the storage container, additional time from when the storage container was filled, and increased experience of the UV system operator were associated with reductions in post-treatment contamination. Our results suggest that the UV system is efficacious at improving household water quality when used as intended. Promoting safe storage habits is essential for an effective UV system dissemination. The drinking

  4. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA))

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  5. Space capsule recovery—Evaluation of risk factors, safety plans and procedures and design of experiments for systems qualification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasaiah, N.; Varaprasad, R.; Seshagiri Rao, V.; Krishnamurty, V.; Sanyal, M. K.

    2009-11-01

    The Indian Space capsule (SRE-1) launched aboard PSLV-C7 rocket, was recovered successfully in the Bay of Bengal on January 22, 2007 after its orbital sojourn of 12 days. Apart from serving as a platform for micro-gravity experiments, SRE-1 demonstrated ISRO's capability in the field of orbital reentry and recovery technologies. Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC SHAR), the Spaceport of India was given the prime responsibility of assessment of mission risk, formulation and execution of safety plans and procedures, design and conduct of trials for validating the mission-critical sub-systems as well as the physical recovery of the capsule. To achieve these objectives, a number of drop tests were designed and conducted by SDSC SHAR involving real time computer network, ground-based tracking and telemetry stations, communication systems, safety and material handling systems, target identification and recovery systems. Dissemination of relevant information and coordination with multiple external organizations such as Indian Coast Guard, Indian Air Force and Indian Navy is an important aspect of these experiments. This paper delineates the methodologies designed and implemented at SDSC SHAR for validating those critical systems whose functionality finally culminated in the success of the mission, enabling India to join the elite group of nations with reentry module recovery capability.

  6. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  7. Cholera outbreak in a southwest community of Nigeria: investigation of risk factors and evaluation of a district surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatiregun, A A; Ajayi, I O; Isere, E E

    2013-01-01

    Following confirmation of cholera outbreak in a southwest community of Nigeria, we set to identify possible risk factors for contracting the disease and to evaluate the completeness as well as the representativeness of the cases reported to a district health authority. Cholera cases were identified through an active case search that involved the review of records in health facilities and a house-to-house search using the standard case definition in the Nigeria integrated disease surveillance and response technical guidelines. Two neighborhood controls appropriately matched on age and sex for each case, were also identified. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on the demographic characteristics and potential risk factors. Completeness of reporting of cases notified to the district health authority was evaluated using a two source capture-recapture method. In addition, the representativeness of the reported cases was determined by comparing the age and sex distributions of notified cases to those identified through the active case search. Thirty-nine cases were identified, of which 22 consented to participate. Contact with a diarrhoea case at home or in the neighborhood within the last 7 days prior to illness onset in cases was significantly associated with having cholera (Matched triplets Odds Ratio 8.5, 95% CI: 1.36-52.9). The completeness of the district surveillance report was estimated to be 54%. In the district notification data compared with the active case search data, males cholera were increased in those who had contact with a case of diarrhea. Reporting of cases to the district health authority was not complete and the surveillance data on gender and age grouping were not representative of the cases that occurred in the population. There is a need for efficient reporting of cases to the health authority during outbreaks in order to improve decision-making and public health interventions.

  8. Media Specialists Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Carol; Marsen, Louise

    Intended to provide a comprehensive system for the evaluation of a media specialist's total job performance, this three-part evaluation form is based on the St. Louis Community College's Faculty Evaluation System: Instructional Resources Faculty, August 1981. Designed for peer evaluation of media specialists, the first form includes a rating scale…

  9. 供应链风险的系统识别与评价模型研究%Study on Supply Chain Risk System Identification and Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    耿殿明; 刘佳翔

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we systematically identify and classify supply chain risks, as well as its controllability and harmfnl influence. A supply chain risk evaluation index system is formulated for the identification and classification of supply chain risks, and then through improved set-valued statistical accelerated iteration method, the weight of each index is determined. On the basis of expert risk probability interval estimation, a comprehensive evaluation model for supply chain risk is constructed and an empirical analysis is carried out at the last.%对供应链风险进行了系统识别和分类,分析了供应链风险的可控性和危害性.构建了供应链风险评估指标体系,利用改进的集值统计加速迭代法确定各指标权重,建立了基于专家风险概率区间估计的供应链风险综合评价模型,并进行了实证分析.

  10. Neck keloids: evaluation of risk factors and recommendation for keloid staging system [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Tirgan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Importance: Health care providers have long struggled with recurrent and hard to treat keloids. Advancing our understanding of natural history and risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids can lead to improved treatment outcomes. Clinical staging system for the categorization of keloid lesions, as well as grouping of keloid patients according to the extent of skin involvement is both fundamental for design and delivery of proper plan of care and an absolute necessity for methodical trial design and interpretation of the results thereof. Objective: To review clinical presentation and natural history of neck keloids; to explore risk factors for development of large, very large and massive neck keloids; and to propose a clinical staging system that allows for categorization of keloid lesions by their size and grouping of keloid patients by the extent of their skin involvement.  Setting: This is a retrospective analysis of 82 consecutive patients with neck keloids who were seen by the author in his keloid specialty medical practice.    Intervention: Non-surgical treatment was offered to all patients.  Results: Neck-area keloids were found to have several unique characteristics. All 65 African Americans in this study had keloidal lesions elsewhere on their skin. Very large and massive neck keloids appear to be race-specific and almost exclusively seen among African Americans. Submandibular and submental skin was the most commonly involved area of the neck. Keloid removal surgery was found to be the main risk factor for development of very large and massive neck keloids.  Conclusions and relevance: Surgical removal of neck keloids results in wounding of the skin and triggering a pathological wound-healing response that often leads to formation of a much larger keloid.  Given the potential for greater harm from surgery, the author proposes non-surgical approach for treatment of all primary neck keloids. Author

  11. [Evaluating individual occupational risk in teachers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanov, E G; Ishmukhametov, I B

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyzed work conditions of comprehensive school teachers according to workplace assessment. Additional studies covered opportunistic pathogens content of air in classrooms. Auxiliary medical examination evaluated health state of the teachers. Individual occupational risk was calculated with consideration of actual work conditions and health state. Comprehensive school teacher's work is characterized by constant or transitory influence by complex of occupational and work hazards that are mostly (according to to workplace assessment) increased work intensity, noise and inadequate illumination parameters. Ambient air of classrooms constantly contains high number of opportunistic pathogens, that could decrease immune system parameters and cause more droplet infections. Individual occupational risk of teachers, calculated with consideration of work conditions and health state parameters, appears to be high and proves high possibility of teachers' health damage at work. Recommendations cover evaluation of biologic factors within the workplace assessment, obligatory preliminary (before employment) and periodic medical examinations for comprehensive school teachers as for workers exposed to occupational hazards.

  12. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  13. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  14. Evaluation of the "medication fall risk score".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Cyrus; Hall, Scott

    2017-01-01

    Results of a study evaluating the predictive validity of a fall screening tool in hospitalized patients are reported. Administrative claims data from two hospitals were analyzed to determine the discriminatory ability of the "medication fall risk score" (RxFS), a medication review fall-risk screening tool that is designed for use in conjunction with nurse-administered tools such as the Morse Fall Scale (MFS). Through analysis of data on administered medications and documented falls in a population of adults who underwent fall-risk screening at hospital admission over a 15-month period (n = 33,058), the predictive value of admission MFS scores, alone or in combination with retrospectively calculated RxFS-based risk scores, was assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were used to evaluate improvements in risk prediction with the addition of RxFS data to the prediction model. The area under the ROC curve for the predictive model for falls compromising both MFS and RxFS scores was computed as 0.8014, which was greater than the area under the ROC curve associated with use of the MFS alone (0.7823, p = 0.0030). Screening based on MFS scores alone had 81.25% sensitivity and 61.37% specificity. Combined use of RxFS and MFS scores resulted in 82.42% sensitivity and 66.65% specificity (NRI = 0.0587, p = 0.0003). Reclassification of fall risk based on coadministration of the MFS and the RxFS tools resulted in a modest improvement in specificity without compromising sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2014-08-15

    Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods.

  16. 浙商企业经营风险评价体系研究%The index system of risk evaluation for Zheshang Enterprise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    施放; 沈惠芬

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty not only can bring the opportunity to enterprise, but also cause crisis, early warning management mainly emphasizes on the predictors of risk before they occurred in case of the bud, minimizing the loss of risk. This paper designs a set of overall and effective enterprise early warning evaluation index system for Zheshang Enterprise after reaserches, which reflects the comprehensive business risks, provides a method of business risk assessment of Zheshang Enterprise.%不确定性既给企业带来契机,也会引发企业危机,预警管理主要强调在风险未发生时的预测行为,以便防患于未然,把风险可能带来的损失降低到最小。本文针对浙商企业研究并设计出一套全面有效的企业经营风险评价指标体系,综合反映浙商的经营风险,以求为浙商企业的经营风险评价提供科学方法。

  17. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  18. A geographical information system-based multicriteria evaluation to map areas at risk for Rift Valley fever vector-borne transmission in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, A; Ippoliti, C; Balenghien, T; Conte, A; Gely, M; Calistri, P; Goffredo, M; Baldet, T; Chevalier, V

    2013-11-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe mosquito-borne disease that is caused by a Phlebovirus (Bunyaviridae) and affects domestic ruminants and humans. Recently, its distribution widened, threatening Europe. The probability of the introduction and large-scale spread of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in Europe is low, but localized RVF outbreaks may occur in areas where populations of ruminants and potential vectors are present. In this study, we assumed the introduction of the virus into Italy and focused on the risk of vector-borne transmission of RVFV to three main European potential hosts (cattle, sheep and goats). Five main potential mosquito vectors belonging to the Culex and Aedes genera that are present in Italy were identified in a literature review. We first modelled the geographical distribution of these five species based on expert knowledge and using land cover as a proxy of mosquito presence. The mosquito distribution maps were compared with field mosquito collections from Italy to validate the model. Next, the risk of RVFV transmission was modelled using a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) approach, integrating expert knowledge and the results of a literature review on host sensitivity and vector competence, feeding behaviour and abundance. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results with respect to expert choices. The resulting maps include (i) five maps of the vector distribution, (ii) a map of suitable areas for vector-borne transmission of RVFV and (iii) a map of the risk of RVFV vector-borne transmission to sensitive hosts given a viral introduction. Good agreement was found between the modelled presence probability and the observed presence or absence of each vector species. The resulting RVF risk map highlighted strong spatial heterogeneity and could be used to target surveillance. In conclusion, the geographical information system (GIS)-based MCE served as a valuable framework and a flexible tool for mapping the

  19. Managing risk in software systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fletcher, S.K.; Jansma, R.M.; Murphy, M.D. [and others

    1995-07-01

    A methodology for risk management in the design of software systems is presented. It spans security, safety, and correct operation of software within the context of its environment, and produces a risk analysis and documented risk management strategy. It is designed to be iteratively applied, to attain appropriate levels of detail throughout the analysis. The methodology and supporting tools are discussed. The methodology is critiqued relative to other research in the field. Some sample applications of the methodology are presented.

  20. Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

  1. Evaluating intensified camera systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. A. Baker

    2000-07-01

    This paper describes image evaluation techniques used to standardize camera system characterizations. Key areas of performance include resolution, noise, and sensitivity. This team has developed a set of analysis tools, in the form of image processing software used to evaluate camera calibration data, to aid an experimenter in measuring a set of camera performance metrics. These performance metrics identify capabilities and limitations of the camera system, while establishing a means for comparing camera systems. Analysis software is used to evaluate digital camera images recorded with charge-coupled device (CCD) cameras. Several types of intensified camera systems are used in the high-speed imaging field. Electro-optical components are used to provide precise shuttering or optical gain for a camera system. These components including microchannel plate or proximity focused diode image intensifiers, electro-static image tubes, or electron-bombarded CCDs affect system performance. It is important to quantify camera system performance in order to qualify a system as meeting experimental requirements. The camera evaluation tool is designed to provide side-by-side camera comparison and system modeling information.

  2. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  3. Disaster Risk Management of Urban Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Diana Ancaş

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the risk of natural disasters is an intensely debated issue, both on national and international level. In the present paper, after a brief review of the international research in this field and an introduction in risk management, we insisted on risk analysis of an urban area, called urban system. More precisely, we investigated the evaluation of risk and the behavior of the pipelines infrastructure characteristic in an urban area during an earthquake.By taking into account a certain region in Jassy city area, we present a methodology of evaluating seismic risk of the utilities network of the region. The method consists in establishing the necessary steps to be taken in such an evaluation. These steps are also graphically displayed for the gas pipelines of the area, and emphasizing the critical points existent in that sector e.g. gas stations. Using the cellular automata technique, inspired from the artificial intelligence and complex system fields, based on the GIS map of the analysed region, we obtained a map with the risk areas in case of an earthquake, taking into account the gas pipelines network and the existing critical points.

  4. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  5. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  6. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE is not appropriate for withholding surgery in high-risk patients with aortic stenosis: a retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Légaré Jean-Francois

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE is a widely used risk assessment tool in patients with severe aortic stenosis to determine operability and to select patients for alternative therapies such as transcatheter aortic valve implantation. The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of the EuroSCORE in predicting mortality following aortic valve replacement (AVR. Methods The logistic EuroSCORE was determined for all consecutive patients that underwent conventional AVR between 1995 and 2005 at our institution. Provincial Vital Statistics were used to determine all-cause mortality. The accuracy of the prognostic risk prediction provided by logistic EuroSCORE was assessed by comparing observed and expected operative mortality. Results During the study period, a total of 1,421 patients underwent AVR including 237 patients (16.7% that had a logistic EuroSCORE > 20. Among these patients, the mean predicted operative mortality was 38.7% (SD = 18.1. The actual mortality of these patients was significantly lower than that predicted by EuroSCORE (11.4% vs. 38.7%, observed/expected ratio 0.29, 95% CI 0.15–0.52, P 20 (log rank P = 0.0001, approximately 60% are alive at five years. Conclusion Actual operative mortality in patients undergoing AVR is significantly lower than that predicted by the logistic EuroSCORE. Additionally, medium-term survival following AVR is acceptable in high-risk patients with EuroSCORE > 20. More accurate risk prediction models are needed for risk-stratifying patients with severe aortic stenosis.

  7. A holistic evaluation of risks in coastal regions under changing climatic, environmental and socioeconomic conditions: the Theseus Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losada, I. J.; Garcia Alonso, E.; Mendez, F. J.; Zanuttigh, B.; Nicholls, R. J.; Thompson, R.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Fernandez, F.; Ondiviela, B.; Diaz-Simal, P.; Bagli, S.

    2012-04-01

    There is a general acceptance that global changes associated with natural hazards and socioeconomic processes are occurring at a faster pace than ever, with deep implications in terms of risk exposure and environmental impact. The capacity of coastal areas to adapt and react to these changes will be a key factor in the future preservation of life standards and represents a great challenge for politicians, scientists and professionals at any level. Within the large scope of Theseus Project (EU 7th Framework Program), one of the main objectives is to design a tool to help decision makers in defining optimal strategies to minimize risks within a certain city or coastal area in a three-fold sense: economic losses, human damages and environmental impacts. The resulting software, the Theseus-DSS, links the most relevant physical processes (waves, sea-levels, hard and soft structures, coastal erosion and inland flooding) with the potential impact zones (marine and inland), considering their functions (ecosystems) and uses (economic units), and the dependence of this functions and uses upon the prevailing physical conditions. The new software tries to fill a gap among the existing tools, based on the following pillars: • Seamless integration of disciplines: physics, engineering, ecology, social sciences and economy. • Intermediate spatial scales (1- 10 km) and medium-to- long time spans (1-10 years). • Decision-making based on a balance between deterministic models and expert, discussion-based assumptions. The user of the Theseus-DSS will be able either to check the consequences of predefined scenarios at a particular study site, or to create user-defined scenarios, run them and compare the results with other scenarios. The results are expressed, locally and at an aggregate level, in the three aforementioned dimensions: economic losses (€/year), mean annual expected live losses (persons/year) and impact on habitats (null, low, medium and high).

  8. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  9. Deterministic evaluation of collapse risk for a decomissioned flooded mine system: 3D numerical modelling of subsidence, roof collapse and impulse water flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanza, Riccardo; Fernandez Merodo, Josè Antonio; di Prisco, Claudio; Frigerio, Gabriele; Crosta, Giovanni B.; Orlandi, Gianmarco

    2013-04-01

    Aim of the study is the assessment of stability conditions for an abandoned gypsum mine (Bologna , Italy). Mining was carried out til the end of the 70s by the room and pillar method. During mining a karst cave was crossed karstic waters flowed into the mine. As a consequence, the lower level of the mining is completely flooded and portions of the mining levels show critical conditions and are structurally prone to instability. Buildings and infrastructures are located above the first and second level and a large portion of the area below the mine area, and just above of the Savena river, is urbanised. Gypsum geomechanical properties change over time; water, or even air humidity, dissolves or weaken gypsum pillars, leading progressively to collapse. The mine is located in macro-crystalline gypsum beds belonging to the Messinian Gessoso Solfifera Formation. Selenitic gypsum beds are interlayered with by centimetre to meter thick shales layers. In order to evaluate the risk related to the collapse of the flooded level (level 3) a deterministic approach based on 3D numerical analyses has been considered. The entire abandoned mine system up to the ground surface has been generated in 3D. The considered critical scenario implies the collapse of the pillars and roof of the flooded level 3. In a first step, a sequential collapse starting from the most critical pillar has been simulated by means of a 3D Finite Element code. This allowed the definition of the subsidence basin at the ground surface and the interaction with the buildings in terms of ground displacements. 3D numerical analyses have been performed with an elasto-perfectly plastic constitutive model. In a second step, the effect of a simultaneous collapse of the entire level 3 has been considered in order to evaluate the risk of a flooding due to the water outflow from the mine system. Using a 3D CFD (Continuum Fluid Dynamics) finite element code the collapse of the level 3 has been simulated and the volume of

  10. A step towards risk-based decision support for ships - Evaluation of limit states using parallel system analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate future ship responses within a time scale of the order of 1–3 h taking into account speed and course changes, assuming stationary sea states. In principle, the calculations depend...... on a large amount of operational and environmental parameters, which will be known only in the statistical sense. The present paper suggests a procedure to incorporate random variables and associated uncertainties in the calculations of the outcrossing rates that are the basis for riskbased DSS....... The procedure is based on parallel system analysis, and the paper derives and describes the main ideas. The concept is illustrated by an example, where the limit state of a non-linear ship response is considered. The results from the parallel system analysis are in agreement with corresponding Monte Carlo...

  11. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R. [Bremen Univ. (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: (a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or (b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  12. Evaluation of edge detectors using avarage risk

    OpenAIRE

    Spreeuwers, L.J.; Heijden, van der, RW Rob

    1992-01-01

    A new method for evaluation of edge detectors, based on the average risk of a decision, is discussed. The average risk is a performance measure well-known in Bayesian decision theory. Since edge detection can be regarded as a compound decision making process, the performance of an edge detector is context dependent. Therefore, the application of average risk to edge detection is non-trivial. The paper describes a method to estimate the probabilities on a number of different types of (context ...

  13. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.

  14. Milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia--an evaluation of parameters on incidence risk, diagnosis, risk factors and biological effects as input for a decision support system for disease control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houe, H; Østergaard, S; Thilsing-Hansen, T; Jørgensen, R J; Larsen, T; Sørensen, J T; Agger, J F; Blom, J Y

    2001-01-01

    The present review analyses the documentation on incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects of milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia. It is hereby evaluated whether the existing documentation seems sufficient for further modelling in a decision support system for selection of a control strategy. Several studies have been carried out revealing an incidence of milk fever most often in the level of 5-10%. Few studies indicate that the incidence of subclinical hypocalcaemia is several times higher than milk fever. The diagnosis based on clinical or laboratory methods or based on presence of risk factors is outlined. The clinical symptoms of milk fever are highly specific and the disease level may thus be determined from recording of treatments. Diagnosis of subclinical hypocalcaemia needs to include laboratory examinations or it may be determined by multiplying the incidence of milk fever by a certain factor. From the documentation on risk factors, it is very complex to predict the incidence from the exposure level of the risk factors. Due to uncertainty, sensitivity analyses over a wide range of values for each parameter are needed. The documentation of cow characteristics, nutrition, environment and management as risk factors are described. Among cow characteristics, parity or age, body condition and production level were found to be important. Risk factors associated with nutrition included most importantly dietary cation-anion difference and calcium level whereas the importance of general feeding related factors like type of feed stuff and feeding level were less clear. Environment and management included season, climate, housing, pasturing, exercise, length of dry period and prepartum milking. Several of the parameters on environment and management were confounded among each other and therefore firm conclusions on the importance were difficult. The documentation of the effect of milk fever includes the downer cows, reproductive disorders, occurrence of

  15. Physical Protection System Effectiveness Evaluation Project

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Whether the performance meets regulation requirements is a key point to physical protection system (PPS) of nuclear material and nuclear facility. To develop PPS effectiveness evaluation methodology and to use risk analysis based on Design Basis

  16. Economic Evaluation of PCSK9 Inhibitors in Reducing Cardiovascular Risk from Health System and Private Payer Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Timothy F.; Veledar, Emir; Nasir, Khurram

    2017-01-01

    The introduction of Proprotein covertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors has been heralded as a major advancement in reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels by nearly 50%. However, concerns have been raised on the added value to the health care system in terms of their costs and benefits. We assess the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors based on a decision-analytic model with existing clinical evidence. The model compares a lipid-lowering therapy based on statin plus PCSK9 inhibitor treatment with statin treatment only (standard therapy). From health system perspective, incremental cost per quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained are presented. From a private payer perspective, return-on-investment and net present values over patient lifespan are presented. At the current annual cost of $14,000 to $15,000, PCSK9 inhibitors are not cost-effective at an incremental cost of about $350,000 per QALY. Moreover, for every dollar invested in PCSK9 inhibitors, the private payer loses $1.98. Our study suggests that the annual treatment price should be set at $4,250 at a societal willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per QALY. However, we estimate the breakeven price for private payer is only $600 per annual treatment. At current prices, our study suggests that PCSK9 inhibitors do not add value to the U.S. health system and their provision is not profitable for private payers. To be the breakthrough drug in the fight against cardiovascular disease, the current price of PCSK9 inhibitors must be reduced by more than 70%. PMID:28081164

  17. Hemodialysis without systemic anticoagulation: a prospective randomized trial to evaluate 3 strategies in patients at risk of bleeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Guéry

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: In this clinical trial, we aimed to compare three means of performing chronic hemodialysis in patients with contra-indication to systemic heparinization. METHODS: This open-label monocentric randomized « n-of-one » trial, conducted in a single tertiary care center, recruited chronic hemodialysis patients with a contra-indication to systemic heparinization for at least 3 consecutive sessions. All patients underwent hemodialysis with an AN69ST dialyzer, and were administered three alternative dialysis procedures in a random sequence: intermittent saline flushes, constant saline infusion, or pre-dialysis heparin coating of the membrane. The primary outcome was the need to interrupt the dialysis session because of clotting events due to either (i a complete coagulation of the circuit; (ii a partial coagulation of the circuit; (iii a>50% rise over baseline in the venous pressure. RESULTS: At the end of the inclusion period (May, 2007 to December, 2008, the number of patients to include (n=75 was not reached: only 46 patients were included and underwent randomization. The study was terminated, and statistical analysis took into account 224 hemodialysis sessions performed in 44 patients with analyzable data. Heparin adsorption was associated with a significant reduction of the need to interrupt the dialysis session because of clotting events: odds ratio 0.3 (CI 95% 0.2 to 0.6; p3 h dialysis sessions and for having complete blood restitution. There were no significant effects of the dialysis procedure on weight loss, online ionic dialysance, and adverse events. CONCLUSION: Heparin-coated AN69ST dialysis membrane is a safe and effective method to avoid or delay per-dialytic clotting events in patients with contra-indication to systemic anticoagulation. However, results are not generalizable safely to patients with active bleeding, since weak heparinemia, not assessed in this study, may occur. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT

  18. Evaluation of selected oral cavity microbiota--risk factors of management complications in patients with masticatory system disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzki, Paweł J; Perkowski, Konrad; Starościak, Bohdan; Dybicz, Monika; Baltaza, Wanda; Pionkowski, Krzysztof; Chomicz, Lidia

    2016-01-01

    The retrospective analysis of data on oral cavity clinical status in relation to microbiota species composition is presented. The research regards patients of different age, with and without congenital malformation, pretreatment assessed for occurrence of pathological changes in the masticatory system. Samples of the swabs collected from each patient (from dental plaque, periodontium and dental pockets) were used for identification of oral protozoans in wet slides and stained preparations; additionally, transmission electron microscope examination was performed. The material was used for in vitro cultures to identify bacteria strains. Clinically, intensity of tissue deteriorations was higher in patients with a congenital disease. Alive Trichomonas tenax and Entamoeba gingivalis, species with confirmed pathogenic impact on oral cavity and neighboring structures, were detected with higher prevalence in older patients. Enterococci, Staphylococcus aureus, various Enterobacteriaceae were more frequently detected in patients with somatic and mental retardations; in mouths of those patients, Klebsiella pneumonia and Pseudomonas aeruginosa opportunistic strains occurred. Masticatory system abnormalities favor colonization of oral cavity by exogenous species and dissemination of infections, especially dangerous for patients with congenital diseases. Oral microbiota assessment and preventive measures may be helpful to avoid subsequent peri-surgery complications.

  19. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-08-17

    BACKGROUND We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative 'additive EuroSCORE' (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative 'additive CASUS' (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the 'modified CASUS'. MATERIAL AND METHODS We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the 'modified CASUS' were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong's method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. RESULTS The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2 ± 10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6 ± 7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of 'modified CASUS': ≥ 0.929; 'additive CASUS': ≥ 0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended.

  20. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  1. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  2. Insider Risk Evaluation and Audit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    friends” within the IT department of an American media company abroad. However, his friendship network was actively involved in supporting the...its job candidates and incumbents for personality disorders. They include the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2), the Millon ...using a government system and downloaded files to official storage media (Shaw & Fischer, 2005). The audit trails suggested that the trainee was

  3. Preliminary Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System: Task 2.1.1: Evaluating Effects of Stressors – Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report: Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-11-15

    Possible environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term effects. An understanding of risk associated with likely interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help reduce the level of uncertainty and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases - a tidal project in Puget Sound using Open Hydro turbines, a wave project off the coast of Oregon using Ocean Power Technologies point attenuator buoys, and a riverine current project in the Mississippi River using Free Flow turbines. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in all three cases were the effects of the dynamic physical presence of the device (e.g., strike), accidents, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the four highest tiers of risk were dominated by marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) and birds (diving and non-diving); only the riverine case (Free Flow) included different receptors in the third tier (fish) and the fourth tier (benthic invertebrates). Although this screening analysis provides a preliminary analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis, especially of risk associated with chemical toxicity and accidents such as oil spills or lost gear, will be necessary to further understand high-priority risks. Subject matter expert review of this process and results is required and is

  4. Part Machinability Evaluation System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    In the early design period, estimation of the part or the whole product machinability is useful to consider the function and process request of the product at the same time so as to globally optimize the design decision. This paper presents a part machinability evaluation system, discusses the general restrictions of part machinability, and realizes the inspection of these restrictions with the relation between tool scan space and part model. During the system development, the expansibility and understandability were considered, and an independent restriction algorithm library and a general function library were set up. Additionally, the system has an interpreter and a knowledge manager.

  5. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Danielsson; C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  6. evaluation index system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Jiankun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flexible AC transmission system (FACTS has the control characteristics of efficiency, flexibility and reliability. The introduction of FACTS in power system is superior to any other control methods, and different FACTS devices have different features. In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation index system is developed to study a variety of comparisons on different FACTS devices. The proposed index takes power flow controllability as its main indicator, and loss reduction, static voltage stability improvement and load shedding reduction as complementary indicators. Finally, the peak load case in 2016 of a province is adopted for case studies. The results not only show that the proposed comprehensive evaluation index is systematic, scientific, practical, but also show the superiority of unified power flow controller (UPFC.

  7. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  8. Modelling of Systemic Risk of Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Gudelytė

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – to evaluate the general networking and simulation approaches of modelling of systemic risk and the financial contagion and their ability to assess the banking sector resilience in the case of external economic shocks and collapse of idiosyncratic financial institutions.Design/methodology/approach – a general overview of research papers presenting concepts and methodologies of assessment of systemic risk of the banking sector.Findings – limitations of the networking approach and possible ways to improve modelling of systemic risk. The network approach cannot explain the causes of initial default of bank. On the other hand, assumptions made on LGD and interbank exposures are very strong. These features are important limitations of network and simulation approaches.Research limitations/implications – the application of reviewed methods in the case of Lithuanian banking sector falls, however, due to the lack of exhaustive data. On the other hand, until now, applied methods for systemic risk due to the lack of data have been limited. Also, because of this reason, there are difficulties to create adequate dynamic assessment for systemic risk models. Therefore, in assessing systemic risk of the banking sector, the same problem remains: is it possible to parameterize the financial crisis, its spread and speed and other characteristics according to quantitative methods. Knowing the liquidity, credit risk and other standards set in Basel Accords, it is also not enough to properly manage the systemic risk of the whole banking sector because for the proper activity of the banking sector not only characteristics related to capital requirements have influence on it, but also external (mostly the macroeconomic, political factors.Practical implications – determination of the explicit connection based on quantitative methods determining the systemic risk of the banking sector would be exact and objective assessment and useful not only for the

  9. Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Joseph, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated...

  10. Multicriteria Decision Analysis for banks risks evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Rakotoarivelo, Jean-Baptiste; ZARATÉ, Pascale; Razafimandimby, Josvah Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This poster aims to observe a better choice for risks evaluation Financial organisms. Our aim is to support banks during operations of customers with respect to funding opportunities, investment or credits reaching. First of all, we identify different types of risks associated with this activity and we secondly analysed them thanks to a method of multicriteria analysis AHP (Analytic hierachy Process) with different means adopted to identify them. It should be noted tha...

  11. Abandoned metal mine stability risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bétournay, Marc C

    2009-10-01

    The abandoned mine legacy is critical in many countries around the world, where mine cave-ins and surface subsidence disruptions are perpetual risks that can affect the population, infrastructure, historical legacies, land use, and the environment. This article establishes abandoned metal mine failure risk evaluation approaches and quantification techniques based on the Canadian mining experience. These utilize clear geomechanics considerations such as failure mechanisms, which are dependent on well-defined rock mass parameters. Quantified risk is computed using probability of failure (probabilistics using limit-equilibrium factors of safety or applicable numerical modeling factor of safety quantifications) times a consequence impact value. Semi-quantified risk can be based on failure-case-study-based empirical data used in calculating probability of failure, and personal experience can provide qualified hazard and impact consequence assessments. The article provides outlines for land use and selection of remediation measures based on risk.

  12. Small Orbital Launcher - Risk Zone Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Viorel CHELARU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some aspects regarding two calculus models to evaluate the risk zone of the multistage launcher. Regarding the risk zone, unlike the classic model used for the launcher, we will use a calculus model build on non-inertial frames /taking part to the diurnal rotation (Earth spin. This is necessary to link the risk zone of the launch position, and place it on the map. For the risk zone we will use actually two models: first build in start frame which is more suitable for ascensional guidance phase, and second, built in quasi – velocity frame used for unguided motion especially in descending phase. The discussions will focus around the possibility to find a launching area to be satisfactory in terms of risk conditions arising from the SOL launching.

  13. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  14. Nephrogenic Systemic Fibrosis Risk and Liver Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert F. Hanna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Evaluate the incidence of nephrogenic systemic fibrosis (NSF in patients with liver disease in the peritransplant period. Materials and Methods. This IRB approved study retrospectively reviewed patients requiring transplantation for cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, or both from 2003 to 2013. Records were reviewed identifying those having gadolinium enhanced MRI within 1 year of posttransplantation to document degree of liver disease, renal disease, and evidence for NSF. Results. Gadolinium-enhanced MRI was performed on 312 of 837 patients, including 23 with severe renal failure (GFR 30. Two of 23 patients with renal failure developed NSF compared to zero NSF cases in 289 patients with GFR > 30 (0/289; P<0.003. High dose gadodiamide was used in the two NSF cases. There was no increased incidence of NSF with severe liver disease (1/71 compared to nonsevere liver disease (1/241; P=0.412. Conclusion. Renal disease is a risk factor for NSF, but in our small sample our evidence suggests liver disease is not an additional risk factor, especially if a low-risk gadolinium agent is used. Noting that not all patients received high-risk gadolinium, a larger study focusing on patients receiving high-risk gadolinium is needed to further evaluate NSF risk in liver disease in the peritransplant period.

  15. Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

    2014-12-01

    A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous

  16. Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

  17. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  18. REXS : A financial risk diagnostic expert system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Richter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Artificial intelligence techniques are rapidly emerging as important contributors to more effective management. One of the greatest growth areas probably lies in the use of Expert System methodology for supporting managerial decision processes.
    Existing Decision Support Systems often attempt to apply analytical techniques in combination with traditional data access and retrieval functions. One of the problems usually encountered while developing such decision support systems is the need to transform an unstructured problem environment into a structured analytical model. Using an expert system approach to strategic decision making in such unstructured problem environments may provide significant advantages.
    The financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS concentrates on Financial Risk Analysis. Based on a Forecasting Model the system will, with the support of several expert system knowledge bases, attempt to evaluate the financial risk of a business and provide guidelines for improvement.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnieke gebaseer op Kunsmatige Intelligensie toon tans die belofte om belangrike bydraes te maak tot meerBestaande Besluitsteunstelsels poog dikwels om analitiese tegnieke en lradisionele datatoegang- en onttrekkingsfunksies te kombineer. Een van die probleme wat gewoonlik ondervind word gedurende die ontwikkeling van '0 besluitsteunstelsel bestaan uit die behoefte om 'n ongestruktueerde probleemomgewing te transformeer na 'n gestruktueerde analitiese model. 'n Ekspertstelselbenadering lot strategiese besluitneming in 'n ongeSlruktureerde probleemomgewing mag betekenisvolle voordele inhou.
    Die "financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS" konsentreer op fmansiele risiko-analise. Uitgaande vanaf 'n Vooruitskattingsmode~ en deur gebruik te maak van verskeie ekspertstelselkennisbasisse, poog die stelsel om die fmansiele risiko van 'n onderneming te evalueer en riglyne vir moontlike verbetering

  19. Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.; Zdanski, Laura C.; Gill, Gary A.; Ward, Jeffrey A.

    2011-09-01

    Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases. During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening

  20. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H

    2011-09-01

    We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF (q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF (p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF (q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF (p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  1. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  2. Results of the application of the Risk Evaluation System in Radiotherapy (RESRA) in radiotherapy facilities in Mexico; Resultados de la aplicacion del Sistema de Evaluacion del Riesgo en Radioterapia (SEVRRA) en instalaciones de radioterapia en Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paz G, A.; Godinez S, V., E-mail: abpaz@cnsns.gob.mx [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, Dr. Jose Ma. Barragan No. 779, Col. Narvarte, 03020 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2013-10-15

    The present work describes the main results of the risk evaluation for some radiotherapy treatments with lineal accelerators, cobalt 60, brachytherapy of high dose rate and brachytherapy of low dose rate that are realize in Mexico. These evaluations were carried out applying the risk matrices method with the tool computer risk evaluation system in radiotherapy, accessible for the national users through internet, and developed by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias in Mexico, in cooperation with the Forum of Ibero-American regulators. The used methodology is based on the risk matrices method that is a mathematical tool for the risk evaluation, and it was centered in the evaluation from the risk to which are exposed the patients, the occupational exposed personnel and people in general, by the mechanical faults of the treatment equipment s, bad calibrations, human errors, or any other event initiator of accidents. The events initiators of accidents are defined as those undesirable events that can produce and administration of an excessive dose or a sub-dose of the prescribed dose by the doctor, to the planned objective volume, or undesirable dose to the patient's regions or dose to occupational exposed personnel or people in general. The barriers are the actions and systems as mechanical switches, interlocks or alarms, dedicated to avoid that these accidents take place. The evaluation analysis of the risk developed by the members of the Forum for radiotherapy facilities together with the software RESRA has demonstrated to be useful in the prevention of many possible accidents that have happened in the past in other facilities and can avoid many others in the future. (Author)

  3. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  4. Preoperative Evaluation: Estimation of Pulmonary Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakshminarasimhachar, Anand; Smetana, Gerald W

    2016-03-01

    Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are common after major non-thoracic surgery and associated with significant morbidity and high cost of care. A number of risk factors are strong predictors of PPCs. The overall goal of the preoperative pulmonary evaluation is to identify these potential, patient and procedure-related risks and optimize the health of the patients before surgery. A thorough clinical examination supported by appropriate laboratory tests will help guide the clinician to provide optimal perioperative care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. 项目业主行为风险评价指标体系的建立%Establishment of theBehavior Risk Evaluation Index System of the Project Owner

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李春波

    2011-01-01

    本文对工程项目全寿命周期内项目业主的行为风险进行了系统地识别,在此基础上建立了项目业主行为风险的评价指标体系,可作为具体工程项目项目业主行为风险指标体系构建的参考。%In this paper, the author systematically identifies the behavior risk of the project owner in the project' s full life-cycle, builds the project owner' s behavior risk evaluation index system, it can provide reference for the establishment of the behavior risk evaluation index system of the project owner in specific project.

  6. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction.

  7. E-Voting Risk and Risk Management Evaluation using Analytical Hierarchy Process: The Case of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amry, F. A.

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is twofold; to investigate the risks involving with e-voting and to evaluate the risk management of policy of e-voting. In the country of Oman, the Ministry of Interior (MOI has already implemented an e-voting system making use of the e-Authentication technique, which uses the existing National ID Card to authenticate citizens for voting. This new e-voting system will give solutions that shall allow all citizens to come to election points and get authenticated through their National ID Card before proceeding to the vote. The solution shall be hosted within the current National ID System, taking advantage of the electronic authentication of the cards while enhancing these capabilities with functions specific to the election process, ensuring election rights and introducing vote timestamp storage in the cards. However; review and observation within Ministry of Interior (MOI of Oman concluded that there is no documented Risk Management Plan that can foresee risks, estimate impacts, and define responses to issues relating with risks involving voting process in the country of Oman. In the context of e-voting systems, risk management is regarded as the characterization of the e- Voting System in Oman; this consists of defining the system for the risk assessment. This is the assessment of system elements, such as hardware, software, system interfaces, data and information, personnel actions, and the mission of the e- Voting system. This is followed by the Identification Threat Sources, Vulnerability Identification, Controls Analysis, Threat Likelihood, performance of impact Analysis and risk level. It is then followed by the Development of Risk Mitigation Strategies and finally the documentation of Results.

  8. Risk evaluation with enhaced covariance matrix

    CERN Document Server

    Urbanowicz, K; Richmond, P; Holyst, Janusz A.; Richmond, Peter; Urbanowicz, Krzysztof

    2006-01-01

    We propose a route for the evaluation of risk based on a transformation of the covariance matrix. The approach uses a `potential' or `objective' function. This allows us to rescale data from diferent assets (or sources) such that each set then has similar statistical properties in terms of their probability distributions. The method is tested using historical data from both the New York and Warsaw Stock Exchanges.

  9. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  10. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  11. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  12. Application of composite scoring system in evaluating the early stroke risk after transient ischemic attack risk%联合评分评估 TIA 后早期卒中风险的应用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高双苓; 王建桥; 王学仕; 李战永

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the application of composite scoring system in evaluating the early stroke risk after transient ischemic attack risk(TIA). Methods 120 patients with TIA were evaluated by the ABCD2 score ,and then the hyper-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and fibrinogen (FIB) in serum were measured. The ABCD2 score combined with the re-sults of hs-CRP and FIB formed the composite scoring system ,and then the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were compared between the ABCD2 score and the composite scoring system. Results The area under the ROC curve of composite scoring system was significantly larger than that of ABCD 2.Conclusion The composite scoring system cri-teria can effectively predict the early occurrence of cerebral infarction after TIA ,and guide the aggressive diagnostic protocols and therapy of T IA.%目的:探讨联合评分方法对短暂性脑缺血发作(transient is chemic attack ,TIA)后早期卒中风险进行评估的效能。方法收集120例TIA患者,通过头DWI明确有无新鲜梗死。入院后对患者进行ABCD2评分,检测患者血清超敏C反应蛋白(hypersensitive C-reactive protein ,hs-CRP)、血浆纤维蛋白原(fibrinogen ,FIB)的含量。在ABCD2评分基础上,结合血清hs-CRP、FIB结果形成联合评分,对比分析 TIA后1周内ABCD2评分与联合评分两种方法的评估效能。结果120例T IA患者中,39例(32.5%)在发病1周内发生脑梗死。ABCD2评分与联合评分两种方法结果一致,脑梗死发病率由高到低顺序为:高危>中危>低危。联合评分低、中危组人数减少,高危组人数增加。与ABCD2评分比较,联合评分低、中危组脑梗死发病率降低,高危组脑梗死发病率升高。联合评分的ROC曲线下面积显著大于ABCD2评分(P<0.001)。结论结合临床生化检验结果的联合评分效能高于单纯的ABCD2评分,联合评

  13. 舰船设计方案技术风险评估指标体系研究%Research on index system for evaluating technical risk in warship design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟小军; 刘刚; 狄鹏

    2012-01-01

    It is important to evaluate and manage technology risk in developing weapon equipment. In order to evaluate the technical risk of warship design in reason, warship equipment design project and its characteristic were analyzed, on this basis, technology readiness assessment method was applied for setting up index system of evaluating technical risk for warship design. The index system, borrows the ideology of technology readiness level (TRL) , congregates the characteristic of warship equipment design, can make measuring technical risk to be practical and flexible. So the problem on how to measuring technical risk of project is solved. This index system has some reference for evaluating other equipment's technical risk.%对于新研装备,技术风险的度量和管理十分重要.为了合理度量舰船装备研制中所隐藏的技术风险,分析了舰船装备设计方案及其特点,在此基础上,运用技术成熟度评价方法,构建了舰船研制方案技术风险评估的指标体系.该指标体系借鉴技术成熟度评价的思想,结合舰船武器装备设计方案的特点,使设计方案技术风险评估具有实用性和可操作性,有效地解决了设计方案所隐含的技术风险量化问题.该指标体系对其它装备的技术风险评估也具有一定的借鉴作用.

  14. Dam risk assistant analysis system design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis,it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system.The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed,and a procedural framework with "three-tier and multi-database" structure and "level structure" is established.The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved.Finally,the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

  15. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ultra high voltage (UHV power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method in this paper. After the risk evaluation index system was built, the AHP was used to determine the weights of risk indicators, and the FCE method was to perform the risk evaluation. The evaluation result shows that (1 “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project has moderate risk, which indicates the occurrence probability of project risk is medium and the risk occurrence will cause general loss for project, (2 “society risk” has the highest level, and the next is “policy and law risk,” “technique risk,” “natural environmental risk,” and “Management risk,” respectively, and it should keep main eye on the social risk, policy and law risk, and technique risk. Finally, according to the risk evaluation result, the specific risk control recommendations were proposed for the smooth construction of this project.

  16. Technical and systems evaluations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skolnik, E.G.; DiPietro, J.P. [Energetics, Inc., Washington, DC (United States)

    1998-08-01

    During FY 1998 Energetics performed a variety of technology-based evaluations for the Hydrogen Program. Three evaluations are summarized below: hydrogen bromine-based electricity storage, carbon-based hydrogen storage, and hydrogen-fueled buses.

  17. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  18. Febrile seizures: risks, evaluation, and prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Reese C; Oehler, Karen; Tingle, Leslie E

    2012-01-15

    Febrile seizures are common in the first five years of life, and many factors that increase seizure risk have been identified. Initial evaluation should determine whether features of a complex seizure are present and identify the source of fever. Routine blood tests, neuroimaging, and electroencephalography are not recommended, and lumbar puncture is no longer recommended in patients with uncomplicated febrile seizures. In the unusual case of febrile status epilepticus, intravenous lorazepam and buccal midazolam are first-line agents. After an initial febrile seizure, physicians should reassure parents about the low risk of long-term effects, including neurologic sequelae, epilepsy, and death. However, there is a 15 to 70 percent risk of recurrence in the first two years after an initial febrile seizure. This risk is increased in patients younger than 18 months and those with a lower fever, short duration of fever before seizure onset, or a family history of febrile seizures. Continuous or intermittent antiepileptic or antipyretic medication is not recommended for the prevention of recurrent febrile seizures.

  19. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  20. Collaborative Management of Risks and Complexity in Banking Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes types of risks encountered in banking systems and ways to prevent and eliminate them. Banking systems are presented in order to have a view on banking activities and processes that generates risks. The risks in banking processes are analyzed and the collaborative character of risk management is highlighted. A way to control the risk in banking systems through information security is described. Risks arise from system complexity, thus evaluation and comparison of different configurations are bases for improvements. The Halstead relative complexity function synthesizes system complexity from the point of view of the size of the variables analyzed and the heterogeneity between the variables. Section four was realized by Catalin SBORA.

  1. Dynamic risk factors: the Kia Marama evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Stephen M; Wales, David S; Bakker, Leon; Ward, Tony

    2002-04-01

    Risk assessment is an essential part of clinical practice. Each of the three aspects of risk (static, stable, and acute dynamic) are important at various points of contact between the man and the systems that are responsible for providing service. Dynamic factors, the typical treatment and supervision targets, have received less research attention than static factors. This paper examined the extent to which pretreatment, posttreatment and change scores were associated with reoffending among men incarcerated for sexually molesting. The results were generally supportive of change in prooffending attitudes as the key to not reoffending and suggested that the perspective-taking component of empathy and the use of fantasy may be important mechanisms. Affect scales generally failed to show any relationship with reoffending, outside decreases in trait and suppressed anger. Moreover, these data suggest that we could improve our assessments and treatment through increased sensitivity to offense pathways.

  2. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors 6 types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among...

  3. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  4. Research on the Evaluation System of Municipal Engineering Trenchless Construction Risk Based on Fuzzy Ontology%基于模糊本体的市政工程非开挖施工风险评价系统研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨洪镅

    2012-01-01

    针对当前市政工程非开挖施工风险评价中存在的问题,提出利用模糊本体来提高风险评价的可理解性和共享性,建立了基于模糊本体的市政工程非开挖施工风险评价系统,并探讨了该系统的具体实现,包括模糊领域本体的生成、模糊评价规则库的建立、模糊本体推理规则的建立、知识库的更新和完善.将该方法用于某顶管施工风险评价,对工程管理起到了很好的指导作用.该方法可对类似工程的风险评估提供参考.%Aiming at the current shortcomings of the risk evaluation of municipal engineering trenchless construction, this study put forward the use of fuzzy ontology to improve the compre-hensiblility and sharing of risk evaluation. After building the risk evaluation system of municipal engineering trenchless construction, it discussed how to achieve the system, including creating fuzzy domain ontology, constructing fuzzy evaluation rules, establishing the fuzzy ontology reasoning rules, renewing and perfecting knowledge base. This method was used for the risk assessment of a pipe jacking engineering, playing an important role in project management. The method offers reference value for the risk assessment of the similar projects in the future.

  5. RISK MANAGEMENT IN A LARGE-SCALE NEW RAILWAY TRANSPORT SYSTEM PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunduck D. SUH, Ph.D., P.E.

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk management experiences of the Korean Seoul-Pusan high-speed railway (KTX project since the planning stage are evaluated. One can clearly see the interplay of engineering and construction risks, financial risks and political risks in the development of the KTX project, which is the peculiarity of large-scale new railway system projects. A brief description on evaluation methodology and overview of the project is followed by detailed evaluations on key differences in risks between conventional railway system and high-speed railway system, social and political risks, engineering and construction risks, and financial risks. Risks involved in system procurement process, such as proposal solicitation, evaluation, selection, and scope of solicitation are separated out and evaluated in depth. Detailed events resulting from these issues are discussed along with their possible impact on system risk. Lessons learned and further possible refinements are also discussed.

  6. Evaluation System for Pesticides (ESPE). 1. Agricultural pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emans HJB; Beek MA; Linders JBHJ

    1992-01-01

    In this report a risk assessment or evaluation system for agricultural pesticides is presented, which estimates the hazards for man and environment resulting from the use of these pesticides. The evaluation system has also been placed within the context of the Uniform System for the Evaluation

  7. Evaluation System for Pesticides (ESPE). 1. Agricultural pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emans HJB; Beek MA; Linders JBHJ

    1992-01-01

    In this report a risk assessment or evaluation system for agricultural pesticides is presented, which estimates the hazards for man and environment resulting from the use of these pesticides. The evaluation system has also been placed within the context of the Uniform System for the Evaluation of

  8. Distributed System Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-07-01

    computers. If a distributed operating system is designed with aschrony in mind efficient usage of overall system resources can be employed through the...the complex problem of efficiently balancing CPU, disk, and communications resource usage in the distributed environment mast be solved by the...throughput (concuirent processing capability), survivability and availabilty , and finally interprocess communication. In measuning the concurrent

  9. AN ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AN ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR EVALUATING FUNCTIONS OF ECOSYSTEM-BASED SOLUTIONS FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (ECO-DRR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Doko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available “Ecological Infrastructure (EI” are defined as naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as healthy mountain catchments, rivers, wetlands, coastal dunes, and nodes and corridors of natural habitat, which together form a network of interconnected structural elements in the landscape. On the other hand, natural disaster occur at the locations where habitat was reduced due to the changes of land use, in which the land was converted to the settlements and agricultural cropland. Hence, habitat loss and natural disaster are linked closely. Ecological infrastructure is the nature-based equivalent of built or hard infrastructure, and is as important for providing services and underpinning socio-economic development. Hence, ecological infrastructure is expected to contribute to functioning as ecological disaster reduction, which is termed Ecosystem-based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR. Although ecological infrastructure already exists in the landscape, it might be degraded, needs to be maintained and managed, and in some cases restored. Maintenance and restoration of ecological infrastructure is important for security of human lives. Therefore, analytical tool and effective visualization tool in spatially explicit way for the past natural disaster and future prediction of natural disaster in relation to ecological infrastructure is considered helpful. Hence, Web-GIS based Ecological Infrastructure Environmental Information System (EI-EIS has been developed. This paper aims to describe the procedure of development and future application of EI-EIS. The purpose of the EI-EIS is to evaluate functions of Eco-DRR. In order to analyse disaster data, collection of past disaster information, and disaster-prone area is effective. First, a number of digital maps and analogue maps in Japan and Europe were collected. In total, 18,572 maps over 100 years were collected. The Japanese data includes Future

  10. An Attempt to Develop AN Environmental Information System of Ecological Infrastructure for Evaluating Functions of Ecosystem-Based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction Eco-Drr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doko, T.; Chen, W.; Sasaki, K.; Furutani, T.

    2016-06-01

    "Ecological Infrastructure (EI)" are defined as naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as healthy mountain catchments, rivers, wetlands, coastal dunes, and nodes and corridors of natural habitat, which together form a network of interconnected structural elements in the landscape. On the other hand, natural disaster occur at the locations where habitat was reduced due to the changes of land use, in which the land was converted to the settlements and agricultural cropland. Hence, habitat loss and natural disaster are linked closely. Ecological infrastructure is the nature-based equivalent of built or hard infrastructure, and is as important for providing services and underpinning socio-economic development. Hence, ecological infrastructure is expected to contribute to functioning as ecological disaster reduction, which is termed Ecosystem-based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). Although ecological infrastructure already exists in the landscape, it might be degraded, needs to be maintained and managed, and in some cases restored. Maintenance and restoration of ecological infrastructure is important for security of human lives. Therefore, analytical tool and effective visualization tool in spatially explicit way for the past natural disaster and future prediction of natural disaster in relation to ecological infrastructure is considered helpful. Hence, Web-GIS based Ecological Infrastructure Environmental Information System (EI-EIS) has been developed. This paper aims to describe the procedure of development and future application of EI-EIS. The purpose of the EI-EIS is to evaluate functions of Eco-DRR. In order to analyse disaster data, collection of past disaster information, and disaster-prone area is effective. First, a number of digital maps and analogue maps in Japan and Europe were collected. In total, 18,572 maps over 100 years were collected. The Japanese data includes Future-Pop Data Series (1,736 maps

  11. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  12. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  13. 基于风险导向的供电公司内部控制评价系统模式%Risk-oriented Internal Control Evaluation System Model of Power Supply Company

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭术

    2012-01-01

    To reasonably construct and correctly implement internal control evaluation system is the precondition of promoting the realization of internal control value. Based on the essence of risk control of internal control, this paper reviews value chain and function model of risk-oriented internal control, and makes risk control performance inset internal control evaluation model of power supply company through the basic train of thought of "risk identification-risk considerations-internal control efficiency", taking "risk control target" as the logical starting point, so as to make internal control evaluation index be more practical, and then providing practical operational guidelines for effective implementation and continuous improvement of power supply company's internal control.%合理构建并正确落实内部控制评价系统是促成内部控制价值实现的前提保障.本文基于内部控制的风险管控实质,梳理风险导向型内部控制的价值链与功能模式,并以“风险管控目标”为逻辑起点,通过“风险识别-风险考量-内控效率”的基本思路,将风险管控绩效镶嵌到供电公司的内部控制评价模型中,使内部控制评价指标更具有操作性,进而为供电公司内部控制的有效实施和持续改进提供切实可行的操作指南.

  14. A rapid screening system evaluates novel inhibitors of DNA methylation and suggests F-box proteins as potential therapeutic targets for high-risk neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penter, Livius; Maier, Bert; Frede, Ute; Hackner, Benjamin; Carell, Thomas; Hagemeier, Christian; Truss, Matthias

    2015-12-01

    After extensive research on radiochemotherapy, 5-year survival rates of children with high risk neuroblastoma still do not exceed 50%, owing to adverse side-effects exemplified by doxorubicin-induced cardiomyopathy. A promising new approach is the combination of conventional therapies with specific modulation of cell signaling pathways promoting therapeutic resistance, such as inhibition of aberrant kinase activity or re-expression of silenced tumor suppressor genes by means of chromatin remodeling. In this regard, we established a system that allows to identify potential drug targets as well as to validate respective candidate inhibitors in high-risk neuroblastoma model cell lines. Cell culture, drug exposure, shRNA-mediated knockdown and phenotype analysis are integrated into an efficient and versatile single well-based protocol. By utilizing this system, we assessed RG108, SGI-1027 and nanaomycin A, three novel DNA methyltransferase inhibitors that have not been tested in neuroblastoma cell lines so far, for their potential of synergistic anti-tumor activity in combination with doxorubicin. We found that, similarly to azacytidine, SGI-1027 and nanaomycin A mediate synergistic growth inhibition with doxorubicin independently of N-Myc status. However, they display high cytotoxicity but lack global DNA demethylation activity. Secondly, we conducted a lentiviral shRNA screen of F-box proteins, key regulators of protein stability, and identified Fbxw11/β-TrCP2 as well as Fbxo5/Emi1 as potential therapeutic targets in neuroblastoma. These results complement existing studies and underline the reliability and versatility of our single well-based protocol.

  15. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  16. Research on Risk Assessment Index System and Evaluation Model for Equipment Quality Management%装备质量管理风险评估指标体系及评估模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢剑锋; 宋华文; 李元左

    2011-01-01

    The construction of index system for risk assessment of equipment quality management is the basis of risk assessment. In accordance with the characteristics of equipment quality management, risk factors have been analyzed. According to the design principles of indexes system, the index system structure of risk assessment is constructed. And then, the evaluation model which based on ANP and blind number theory is constructed.%装备质量管理风险评估指标体系的构建,是风险评估的基础性工作.本文根据装备质量管理的特点,分析了装备质量管理的风险因素,并依据指标体系的设计原则,建立了装备质量管理风险评估的指标体系结构,并给出了基于网络层次分析法和盲数理论的装备质量管理风险评估模型.

  17. Milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia--an evaluation of parameters on incidence risk, diagnosis, risk factors and biological effects as input for a decision support system for disease control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houe, H; Østergaard, S; Thilsing-Hansen, T

    2001-01-01

    of risk factors is outlined. The clinical symptoms of milk fever are highly specific and the disease level may thus be determined from recording of treatments. Diagnosis of subclinical hypocalcaemia needs to include laboratory examinations or it may be determined by multiplying the incidence of milk fever...... strategy. Several studies have been carried out revealing an incidence of milk fever most often in the level of 5-10%. Few studies indicate that the incidence of subclinical hypocalcaemia is several times higher than milk fever. The diagnosis based on clinical or laboratory methods or based on presence...... concerning incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects seems sufficient for a systematic inclusion in a decision support system. A model on milk fever should take into consideration the variation in biological data and individual herd characteristics. The inclusion of subclinical hypocalcaemia would...

  18. Flexible manufacturing system (FMS) evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Setter, D.L.

    1993-02-01

    The applicability of the flexible manufacturing system (FMS) concept to automate machining and inspecting a family of stainless steel and aluminum hardware for electrical components has been evaluated. FMS was found to be appropriate and justifiable and a project was initiated to purchase and implement an FMS system. System specifications and procurement methodologies were developed that resulted in a conventional competitive bid procurement A proposal evaluation technique was developed consisting of 40% price, 40% technical compliance, and 20% supplier management capabilities.

  19. Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noland, R B

    1995-08-01

    A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).

  20. Issue Management Risk Ranking Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novack, Steven David; Marshall, Frances Mc Clellan; Stromberg, Howard Merion; Grant, Gary Michael

    1999-06-01

    Thousands of safety issues have been collected on-line at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) as part of the Issue Management Plan. However, there has been no established approach to prioritize collected and future issues. The authors developed a methodology, based on hazards assessment, to identify and risk rank over 5000 safety issues collected at INEEL. This approach required that it was easily applied and understandable for site adaptation and commensurate with the Integrated Safety Plan. High-risk issues were investigated and mitigative/preventive measures were suggested and ranked based on a cost-benefit scheme to provide risk-informed safety measures. This methodology was consistent with other integrated safety management goals and tasks providing a site-wide risk informed decision tool to reduce hazardous conditions and focus resources on high-risk safety issues. As part of the issue management plan, this methodology was incorporated at the issue collection level and training was provided to management to better familiarize decision-makers with concepts of safety and risk. This prioritization methodology and issue dissemination procedure will be discussed. Results of issue prioritization and training efforts will be summarized. Difficulties and advantages of the process will be reported. Development and incorporation of this process into INEELs lessons learned reporting and the site-wide integrated safety management program will be shown with an emphasis on establishing self reliance and ownership of safety issues.

  1. Issue Management Risk Ranking Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F. M. Marshall; G. M. Grant; H. M. Stromberg; S. D. Novack

    1999-06-01

    Thousands of safety issues have been collected on-line at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) as part of the Issue Management Plan. However, there has been no established approach to prioritize collected and future issues. The authors developed a methodology, based on hazards assessment, to identify and risk rank over 5000 safety issues collected at INEEL. This approach required that it was easily applied and understandable for site adaptation and commensurate with the Integrated Safety Plan. High-risk issues were investigated and mitigative/preventive measures were suggested and ranked based on a cost-benefit scheme to provide risk-informed safety measures. This methodology was consistent with other integrated safety management goals and tasks providing a site-wide risk-informed decision tool to reduce hazardous conditions and focus resources on high-risk safety issues. As part of the issue management plan, this methodology was incorporated at the issue collection level and training was provided to management to better familiarize decision-makers with concepts of safety and risk. This prioritization methodology and issue dissemination procedure will be discussed. Results of issue prioritization and training efforts will be summarized. Difficulties and advantages of the process will be reported. Development and incorporation of this process into INEEL's lessons learned reporting and the site-wide integrated safety management program will be shown with an emphasis on establishing self reliance and ownership of safety issues.

  2. Drought risk and vulnerability in water supply systems.

    OpenAIRE

    Garrote de Marcos, Luis; Cubillo, Francisco

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the challenges presented to the managers of water supply systems by drought and water scarcity. Risk assessment is an essential tool for the diagnostic of water scarcity in this type of systems. The evaluation of the risk of water shortage is performed with the use of complex mathematical models. Different alternatives to address the problem are presented, covering a range of methodological approaches. The actions adopted to prevent or mitigate the effects o...

  3. Evaluating Electoral Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary W Cox

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Scholars have suggested that electoral systems should be designed to promote (1 fair representation of parties, (2 good governmental performance and/or (3 adequate local representation. These three criteria pertain to three different kinds of accountability-the accountability of parties to their supporters; the accountability of governments to their citizens; and the accountability of MPs to their supporters-which cannot be simultaneously maximized. In this essay, I discuss each criterion in the abstract and with specific reference to the current Chilean electoral system and proposals to reform itLa academia especializada ha sugerido que los sistemas electorales tienen como propósito promover (1 la representación justa de los partidos, (2 la ejecución adecuada de las políticas gubernamentales, y/o (3 la representación correspondiente a los intereses de los votantes de cada circunscripción electoral. Estos tres criterios pertenecen a tres diversas clases de rendición de cuentas _la que existe de los partidos con sus seguidores; la del gobierno con la ciudadanía, y la de los legisladores con su circunscripción electoral_ que no puede ser maximizadas simultáneamente. Este ensayo discute cada uno de estos criterios en abstracto para luego hacer referencia específica a las implicaciones del sistema electoral chileno en estos y a las propuestas para reformarlo

  4. MTA Computer Based Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Lisa P.; And Others

    The MTA PLATO-based evaluation system, which has been implemented by a consortium of schools of medical technology, is designed to be general-purpose, modular, data-driven, and interactive, and to accommodate other national and local item banks. The system provides a comprehensive interactive item-banking system in conjunction with online student…

  5. MTA Computer Based Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Lisa P.; And Others

    The MTA PLATO-based evaluation system, which has been implemented by a consortium of schools of medical technology, is designed to be general-purpose, modular, data-driven, and interactive, and to accommodate other national and local item banks. The system provides a comprehensive interactive item-banking system in conjunction with online student…

  6. Emergy evaluation of polygeneration systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Lingmei; LI Zheng; NI Weidou

    2007-01-01

    To expand the application range of the emergy evaluation method, an emergy evaluation index, which can reflect the particular feature of polygeneration systems, has been elaborated on the basis of energy and emergy conservation, guided by the fundamental principle of emergy analysis. With this index, the cost structure, emission effect and energy saved were all considered on the same level of importance. To exemplify, some power polygeneration systems (methanol-power generation, hydrogen-power generation) are considered using coal as the basic fuel. The results showed that emergy evaluation indices are practical for comprehensively evaluating polygeneration systems and their sustainability, which is influenced by such factors as the joining mode of polygeneration and the technologies used. The sustainability ofpolygeneration systems, which work on an appropriate ratio of fuel-to-electric power basis, is higher than that of singular production systems.

  7. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk managem

  8. Research of commercial banks operating risk early warning evaluation system based on F-AHP%基于F-AHP商业银行操作风险预警评价系统

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何泽恒; 王彬彬

    2012-01-01

    Based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,this paper established a operation risk early warning evaluation index model of multi-level, many indexes and comprehensive analysis, and designed a operation risk early warning fuzzy evaluation system of B/S structure, and case study and validate the model by use of Matlab. This model could refine the score, and objectively understand the actual situation of operating risk, and found a lot of potential operating risk so as to realize effective supervision and prevention.%基于模糊层次分析法建立了一个多层次、多指标、综合分析操作风险的预警评价指标模型,并设计了一个B/S结构的操作风险预警模糊评价系统,运用Matlab对模型进行了实例研究和验证.该模型可将评分细化、客观全面地了解操作风险的实际情况、发现大量潜在的操作风险,从而实现有针对性的监管和防范.

  9. Risk evaluation methods at individual ship and company level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractSafety management and risk profiling to identify substandard ships are of importance to the shipping industry. Whereas current methods rely heavily on detention risk and flag state performance, we extend the risk assessment by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide

  10. Quantitative basin evaluation, a tool for reducing exploration risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Over the last decade, the evaluation of the petroleum potential of sedimentary basins has shifted from a qualitative to a quantitative approach. This new perspective has led to the elaboration of basin simulators and a new discipline emerged: the basin modeling which is nowadays massively used by the oil industry. This methodology is an integration platform including geology, geochemistry and physics. Combined with uncertainty assessments, it is a powerful tool for reducing exploration risks. In this respect, IFP dedicates one of its IFP Sessions to 'Quantitative Basin Evaluation, a Tool for Reducing Exploration Risks'. This session was held on 18 June, 2001. The purpose of this workshop is to review the most modern advances used by professionals in the oil industry to improve the rate of hydrocarbon discovery and to lower exploration costs in frontier areas. IFP Sessions are conferences held for decision-makers and technical leaders to promote exchanges among involved parties: oil and gas companies, petroleum services and supply industries, engineering firms and research centers. Program: quantitative basin evaluation: the Berkine basin and its results; application of 2-D and 3-D basin modelling in the Gulf of Mexico; 2-D modelling in Brazilian sedimentary basins: lessons from recent case histories; quantitative modelling in the North Sea: towards a more confident assessment of the critical risks (*); uncertainties evaluation in petroleum system modelling (*); prediction of hydrocarbon type in the deep-water, Gulf of Mexico (*); constraining source and charge risk in deep-water areas - the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Angola (*); an overview of basin modelling and geochemistry activities in PDO; quantitative basin evaluation: how does it affect decision in exploration (*); panel discussion: evolution of the modelling tools. Abstracts are available only for 5 presentations (marked with (*)). (J.S.)

  11. Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

  12. Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

  13. Researches on Risk Evaluation of Green Agro-product Closed Supply Chain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Closed supply chain is a superior form of management model of chain supply and an effective means of improving the modernization of agro-product circulation. Based on the research results of the current literatures on supply chain risk and agro-product supply chain, related subjects of the agro-product closed supply chain involving production, management and consumption are studied and analyzed and the primary risking factors in the supply chain system are classified as environmental risk, system risk, information risk, management risk and quality risk. Risk of agro-product closed supply chain is evaluated by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the values are acquired. The result shows that risk of agro-product closed supply chain is moderate with relatively high risk, which basically accords with the present actual situations. It can be seen from the index weights of various levels that the key first-level indices influencing the risks are system risk, information risk, quality and safety risk and the key second-level are the coordinating and controlling ability of core enterprises, the implementation of information traceability and the construction of quality safety system. Therefore, risk of agro-product closed supply chain should be reduced by taking prevention and controlling measures mainly from these aspects.

  14. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  15. Risk factors evaluation for urolithiasis among children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Velásquez-Forero

    2016-07-01

    Conclusions: Hypocitraturia and hypomagnesuria were the most frequent risk factors associated with urolithiasis, followed by hypercalciuria. High PTH values were excluded. Children presented two or more risk factors for urolithiasis.

  16. Evaluation of Information Retrieval Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keneilwe Zuva

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the challenges of modern information retrieval is to adequately evaluate Information RetrievalSystem (IRS in order to estimate future performance in a specified application domain. Since there aremany algorithms in literature the decision to select one for usage depends mostly on the evaluation of thesystems’ performance in the domain. This paper presents how visual and scalar evaluation methodscomplement one another to adequately evaluate information retrieval systems. The visual evaluationmethods are capable of indicating whether one IRS performs better than another IRS fully or partially. Anoverall performance of IRS is revealed using scalar evaluation methods. The use of both types of evaluationmethods will give a clear picture of the performance of the IRSs. The Receiver Operator Characteristic(ROC curve and Precision-Recall (P-R curve were used to illustrate the visual evaluation methods. Scalarmethods notably precision, recall, Area Under Curve (AUC and F measure were used.

  17. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, ... In addition, the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) calculated for indoor exposure ranges ...

  18. Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manzalini, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

  19. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  20. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  1. Financial Connections and Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allen, F.; Babus, A.; Carletti, E.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a model where institutions form connections through swaps of projects in order to diversify their individual risk. These connections lead to two different network structures. In a clustered network groups of financial institutions hold identical portfolios and default together. In an

  2. Financial Connections and Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allen, F.; Babus, A.; Carletti, E.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a model where institutions form connections through swaps of projects in order to diversify their individual risk. These connections lead to two different network structures. In a clustered network groups of financial institutions hold identical portfolios and default together. In an uncl

  3. The Risk Evaluation of the Implement for Enterprise E-Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Lin; ZHANG Jin-long; YANG Lan-rong

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, risk evaluation index system of electronic business is put forward for core manufactures. At the same time, risk evaluation method is established on the basis of fuzzy mathematics and grey theory, and its effectiveness and feasibility are tested in the practical example.

  4. Risk Evaluation of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Gioiosa

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We review here our studies on early exposure to low doses of the estrogenic endocrine-disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA on behavior and metabolism in CD-1 mice. Mice were exposed in utero from gestation day (GD 11 to delivery (prenatal exposure or via maternal milk from birth to postnatal day 7 (postnatal exposure to 10 µg/kg body weight/d of BPA or no BPA (controls. Bisphenol A exposure resulted in long-term disruption of sexually dimorphic behaviors. Females exposed to BPA pre- and postnatally showed increased anxiety and behavioral profiles similar to control males. We also evaluated metabolic effects in prenatally exposed adult male offspring of dams fed (from GD 9 to 18 with BPA at doses ranging from 5 to 50 000 µg/kg/d. The males showed an age-related significant change in a number of metabolic indexes ranging from food intake to glucose regulation at BPA doses below the no observed adverse effect level (5000 µg/kg/d. Consistent with prior findings, low but not high BPA doses produced significant effects for many outcomes. These findings provide further evidence of the potential risks that developmental exposure to low doses of the endocrine disrupter BPA may pose to human health, with fetuses and infants being highly vulnerable.

  5. Risk Evaluation of RFID Logistic System of Metro Repairs Based on Fuzzy FMEA%基于模糊 FMEA的地铁备件 RFID物流系统风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘顺; 潘尔顺

    2014-01-01

    文中针对引进RFID系统后的物流监控系统的风险进行了研究。首先使用问卷对专家意见进行调研,通过模糊语义对系统风险进行评估,并使用中位数符号检验以及最大最小集合方法求得模糊解对应的精确值,从而对系统风险进行排序,得到应重点注意的系统风险和失效模式。最后,根据模糊FMEA分析结果,提出了物流监控系统改善的参考方案,以期降低风险发生率,提高风险处理能力,从而提高质量跟踪管理的信息正确率、作业效率和管理水平。%This paper researched the risk of logistic monitoring system with RFID system .Firstly,the expert opinions is investigated by questionnaire .A fuzzy semantics method is adapted to evaluate the system risk , and the median sign test and Maximum-minimum method is used to get the corresponding exact value of fuzzy solution .Then the key system risks and failure modes can be adapted according to the rank of FMEA results .Lastly,an improvement plan is improved in the light of the fuzzy FMEA analysis results .The research result can help the logistic monitoring system improve the risk -based processing power and management level .

  6. The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif ZIMAN

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

  7. Control Evaluation Information System Savings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eddy Sutedjo

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to evaluate the control of information system savings in the banking and to identify the weaknesses and problem happened in those saving systems. Research method used are book studies by collecting data and information needed and field studies by interview, observation, questioner, and checklist using COBIT method as a standard to assess the information system control of the company. The expected result about the evaluation result that show in the problem happened and recommendation given as the evaluation report and to give a view about the control done by the company. Conclusion took from this research that this banking company has met standards although some weaknesses still exists in the system.Index Terms - Control Information System, Savings

  8. Evaluation of Risk Factors for Hepatosteatosis in Gall Stone Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman Anıl Savaş

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: It has been reported that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD was associated with cholecystectomy and cholecystectomy that may be a risk factor for the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. In this sense, we studied the other risk factors for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with cholelythiasis. Methods: In this study, we included 204 consecutive patients who underwent elective cholecystectomy between June 2011 and January 2014 due to cholelythiasis. We retrospectively evaluated the files of the patients, including operative findings, history, laboratory and radiological imaging findings obtained from the hospital information system and the archived contents of the files. Results: There was no significant relationship between the number and size of the stones and hepatic steatosis (p=0.83 and p=0.96, respectively. Besides, there was no statistically significant relationship between gender and hepatosteatosis. In multivariate regression, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM and cholelithiasis were identified as an independent risk factor for NAFLD. Conclusion: NAFLD and cholelithiasis are common in the general population and have common risk factors. Obesity, female gender, age, type 2 DM, hypertriglyceridemia, insulin resistance, metobolic syndrome, fast weight loss, and bile stasis are risk factors for cholelithiasis. (The Medical Bulletin of Haseki 2015; 53: 237-40

  9. Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qiubin; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2015-01-01

    We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China. Although these measures show different patterns, our resul

  10. The evaluation of the internal audit risk regarding public procurements

    OpenAIRE

    Iulian Bogdan DOBRA

    2009-01-01

    The paper wants to highlight the risk evaluation only for The public procurements carried out through demands of supply. Internal auditors must report the results of their work to the general management and any significant weakness discovered during the audit mission. But, on the other hand, we must not forget that auditors also face a risk, such as the detection risk, called the audit risk. Therefore, the internal auditor must consider the audit risk at the level of each operation as being a...

  11. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  12. Cancer risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Labrecque, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS: Across 30...... centres, 16,409 patients were observed for 121,283 (average 7.4) person-years. In total, 644 cancers occurred. Some cancers, notably hematologic malignancies, were substantially increased (SIR 3.02, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.48, 3.63), particularly non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, NHL (SIR 4.39, 95% CI 3.......46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0...

  13. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  14. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  15. Evaluating Appraisers’ Research: uncertainties and risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saverio Miccoli

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This work was inspired by some of the ideas introduced during the CESET Meeting “Appraisal – University Education and Professional Practice”, that took place in Rome on November 19, 2010. This meeting aimed at drawing a balance of the status of appraisal discipline. In addition to that, the paper faces all the perspectives of research for this discipline following the reform of the University system in Italy. We will therefore offer some critical reflections developed in the light of the new measures adopted: regrouping of scientific-disciplinary sectors, introduction of national-scale qualification processes, definition of innovative criteria to evaluate research activities and their results.

  16. Critical Success Factors for Risk Management Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Yaraghi, Niam

    2009-01-01

    Despite the existence of extensive literature regarding risk management, there still seems to be lack of knowledge in identification of Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in this area. In this research Grounded Theory is implemented to identify CSFs in Risk Management Systems (RMS). Factor analysis and one-sample t-test are then used to refine and rank the CSFs based on the results of a survey which has been performed among Risk Management practitioners in various types of Swedish corporations. ...

  17. Risk Evaluation of Complex Information System Based on Threat Propagation Sampling%基于威胁传播采样的复杂信息系统风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马刚; 杜宇鸽; 安波; 张博; 王伟; 史忠植

    2015-01-01

    互联网时代的信息安全已成为全社会关注的问题之一。信息系统是信息的载体,为有效评估大规模分布式复杂信息系统的风险,构建了一种基于威胁传播采样的复杂信息系统风险评估方法。该方法考虑到威胁在复杂信息系统中传播时,对资产结点的转移状态以及资产结点发出的威胁传播边进行采样来生成威胁传播树(threat propagation trees ,TPT ),然后通过计算威胁传播树中各资产结点的期望损失以及威胁传播树的概率来对整个复杂信息系统进行风险评估。实验分析表明,基于威胁传播采样的复杂信息系统风险评估方法,在生成威胁传播树时具有高效的时间效率,能够对复杂信息系统进行客观准确的风险评估,且在对复杂信息系统资产结点制定安全防护策略时,能够为安全风险管理者提供较为合理的安全指导建议。%Information security has been one of the focuses of social concern in the age of Internet . There is no doubt that accurately assessing the security of information medium is becoming the focus of the present information security work .For evaluating the risk of the large‐scale distributed complex information system ,we propose a risk evaluation method of the complex information system based on threat propagation sampling .Firstly ,when the threats propagate in the complex information system , the number of threat propagation trees (TPT ) is reduced by sampling the transition states of the asset nodes and the threat propagation edges emitted by the asset nodes ,then computing the expected value loss of each node in the threat propagation tree and the probability of each threat propagation tree to evaluate the risk of the complex information system .The experimental analysis not only shows the risk evaluation proposed in this paper has higher time‐efficient compared with the traditional combined strategy when producing the

  18. Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2016-01-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of human health and performance success during exploration missions as well as to maintain the subsequent long-term health of the crew. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  19. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  20. "System evaluates system": method for evaluating the efficiency of IS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dita Blazkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In paper I deal with the possible solution of evaluating the efficiency of information systems in companies. The large number of existing methods used to address the efficiency of information systems is dependent on the subjective responses of the user that may distort output evaluation. Therefore, I propose a method that eliminates the subjective opinion of a user as the primary data source. Applications, which I suggests as part of the method, collects relevant data. In this paper I describe the application in detail. This is a follow-on program on any system that runs parallel with it. The program automatically collects data for evaluation. Data include mainly time data, positions the mouse cursor, printScreens, i-grams of previous, etc. I propose a method of evaluation of the data, which identifies the degree of the friendliness of the information system to the user. Thus, the output of the method is the conclusion whether users, who work with the information system, can handle effectively work with it.

  1. Exploring Nonlinearities in Financial Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolski, M.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new methodology of assessing the effects of individual institution's risk on the others and on the system as a whole. We build upon the Conditional Value-at-Risk approach, however, we introduce the explicit Granger causal linkages and we account for possible nonlinearities in the

  2. RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

  3. Expert System for Data Security Risk Management for SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justinas Janulevičius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility of expertise and expert inferences is one of the key factors for appropriate expert evaluation. Appropriate and timely expert information allows a smooth process of expertise. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs have limited possibilities to acquire professional expertise for data security risk analysis due to limited finances. A risk management expert system is developed for SMEs with the ability to adapt to various subject domains using ontologies of the field.Article in Lithuanian

  4. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  5. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criteria...

  6. Analysis on Index System of Farmer's Credit Evaluation Based on the BBC and Value Chain Risk%基于BBC与价值链风险分析的农户信用评价指标体系探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨宏玲; 郭高玲

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the credit status which financial institutions provide loans to farmers who go back home for work. Based on the research of farmer credit evaluation analysis, the paper finds out that the farmer's credit evaluation index system mainly uses the “5C” or “4C” analysis method, which is thought less diversity. Therefore, the paper puts forward a new farmer's credit evaluation index system based on the value chain risk analysis method with balanced score card. With the personal balanced score card, based on value chain risk analysis, it finds the potential factors of farm households to repay the loan, and then constructs the farmer' s credit evaluation index system according to these factors. The new farmer's credit evaluation index system is more comprehensive and reasonable compared to the traditional.%主要针对"农民工返乡创业"这一社会现象,金融机构对其提供资金支持时,对农户信用进行评价为研究目的.通过对现有农户信用评价的研究分析,发现在构建农户信用评价指标体系时,所采用的方法主要以"5C"或"4C"分析法为模型,方法比较单一,所以,提出了基于价值链风险分析与平衡积分卡方法的农户信用评价指标体系.以个人平衡积分卡为框架,通过对农产品价值链风险分析,找出影响农户偿还贷款的潜在因素,根据这些因素来选取评价指标,构建农户信用评价指标体系.新的农户信用评价指标体系与传统的评价体系相比,更为全面、合理.

  7. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Risk calculation method for complex engineering system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-ping WANG

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method (SMEM, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.

  9. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  10. Control of System with Defined Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavol Tomasov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

  11. Evaluation Indicator System for China’s Agricultural Industrial Safety

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qingpeng; GAO; Bin; CHEN; Qinyang; LI

    2013-01-01

    On the basis of new characteristics and trend of China’s agricultural development in the post-WTO period,combining analysis of factors influencing agricultural industrial safety,this paper builds an evaluation indicator system for China’s agricultural industrial safety by scientific indicator system design method.This indicator system includes risk factor indicators(showing risk degree)and capacity factor indicators(showing guaranteeing ability),and consists of 7 subsystems:consumption safety,production safety,industrial controlling capacity,industrial development capacity,industrial development environment,government functions and industrial foundation condition.Risk factor is divided into 5 levels:higher risk,high risk,medium risk,low risk and lower risk;guarantee risk is also divided into five levels:strong,healthy,normal,weak and disabled.According to the overall evaluation score obtained from weighting sum,the agricultural industrial safety includes 5 types:very safe,safe,basically safe,not safe and hazardous.This evaluation indicator system is expected to providing theoretical reference for evaluating China’s agricultural industrial safety.

  12. Risk evaluation indicator system for exotic plant invasion in Hainan Island, South China%海南岛外来植物入侵风险评价指标体系

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭宗波; 蒋英; 蒋菊生

    2013-01-01

    基于海南岛生物入侵防控及外来物种管理的需求,对海南外来入侵植物的种类、分布情况和危害现状进行了调查.调查发现,目前海南受外来植物入侵影响较重,外来入侵植物共约160种,隶属于38个科.构建了适应于海南当地生态环境特点与经济社会发展的外来植物风险评估指标体系,该指标体系共分3级,包括5个一级指标,和相应的12个二级指标,42个三级指标,采用层次分析法确定了体系各级指标的权重.对海南50种常见的主要外来入侵植物进行了风险评估,并按照评估结果将外来入侵植物划分为不同风险等级,提出相应的管理策略.外来入侵生物风险评估体系可被作为管理部门制定早期预警和决策措施的重要工具,通过风险评估与风险管理,建立一套应对海南外来生物入侵的快速反应体系,为外来生物入侵的防范和生态安全提供保障.%Based on the demands of prevention,control,and management of biological invasion of exotic species in Hainan Island,an investigation was made on the species,distribution,and harm of invasive plants in the Island.According to our investigation,the invasion of exotic species in the Island was very serious.A total of about 160 exotic plants belonging to 38 families were found.A risk evaluation indicator system was established,which could be adapted to the local characteristics of ecological,economic,and social development.The indicator system comprised 5 first-class indices,12 second-class indices,and 42 third-class indices,and the weight of each index was determined by applying analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.The risk of 50 exotic invasive plants was evaluated by using this indicator system,the levels of the invasion risks were determined,and the corresponding risk management strategies were put forward.The risk evaluation indicator system could be used as an important tool in early warning and decision management of

  13. Evaluation of the COGITO system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, V.; Andersen, H.H.K.

    2002-01-01

    This report covers the deliverable D7.2 of the COGITO project. It presents the evaluation of an 'intelligent' agent integrated into an e-commerce system. The aim of the agent is to support the user partly through direct communication and partly by guidinghim/her for navigating the web-site...

  14. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  15. Evaluating MT systems with BEER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanojević Miloš

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We present BEER, an open source implementation of a machine translation evaluation metric. BEER is a metric trained for high correlation with human ranking by using learning-to-rank training methods. For evaluation of lexical accuracy it uses sub-word units (character n-grams while for measuring word order it uses hierarchical representations based on PETs (permutation trees. During the last WMT metrics tasks, BEER has shown high correlation with human judgments both on the sentence and the corpus levels. In this paper we will show how BEER can be used for (i full evaluation of MT output, (ii isolated evaluation of word order and (iii tuning MT systems.

  16. Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Alex; Feinstein, Zachary; Nehorai, Arye

    2016-11-01

    We present a novel framework for evaluating the risk of failures in power transmission systems. We use the concept of systemic risk measures from the financial mathematics literature with models of power system failures in order to quantify the risk of the entire power system for design and comparative purposes. The proposed risk measures provide the collection of capacity vectors for the components in the system that lead to acceptable outcomes. Keys to the formulation of our measures of risk are two elements: a model of system behavior that provides the (distribution of) outcomes based on component capacities and an acceptability criterion that determines whether a (random) outcome is acceptable from an aggregated point of view. We examine the effects of altering the line capacities on energy not served under a variety of networks, flow manipulation methods, load shedding schemes, and load profiles using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of these schemes, measured by the required line capacity. These results provide more complete descriptions of the risks of power failures than the previous, one-dimensional metrics.

  17. Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Alex; Feinstein, Zachary; Nehorai, Arye

    2016-11-01

    We present a novel framework for evaluating the risk of failures in power transmission systems. We use the concept of systemic risk measures from the financial mathematics literature with models of power system failures in order to quantify the risk of the entire power system for design and comparative purposes. The proposed risk measures provide the collection of capacity vectors for the components in the system that lead to acceptable outcomes. Keys to the formulation of our measures of risk are two elements: a model of system behavior that provides the (distribution of) outcomes based on component capacities and an acceptability criterion that determines whether a (random) outcome is acceptable from an aggregated point of view. We examine the effects of altering the line capacities on energy not served under a variety of networks, flow manipulation methods, load shedding schemes, and load profiles using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of these schemes, measured by the required line capacity. These results provide more complete descriptions of the risks of power failures than the previous, one-dimensional metrics.

  18. Power system cascading risk assessment based on complex network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhuoyang; Hill, David J.; Chen, Guo; Dong, Zhao Yang

    2017-09-01

    When a single failure occurs in a vulnerable part of a power system, this may cause a large area cascading event. Therefore, an advanced method that can assess the risks during cascading events is needed. In this paper, an improved complex network model for power system risk assessment is proposed. Risk is defined by consequence and probability of the failures in this model, which are affected by both power factors and network structure. Compared with existing risk assessment models, the proposed one can evaluate the risk of the system comprehensively during a cascading event by combining the topological and electrical information. A new cascading event simulation module is adopted to identify the power grid cascading chain from a system-level view. In addition, simulations are investigated on the IEEE 14 bus system and IEEE 39 bus system respectively to illustrate the performance of the proposed module. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in a power grid risk assessment during cascading event.

  19. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  20. 基于数据挖掘的商户风险评分方法和系统%Merchant Risk Evaluation Method and System Based On Data Mining Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙权; 赵金涛

    2016-01-01

    本文提供了一种商户风险评分系统和方法,可根据商户的历史交易行为有效地对商户欺诈风险进行风险评分.针对发生过一类欺诈交易的商户进行特征行为分析,提取风险指标变量;对风险指标变量进行相关性分析,剔除相关性高的冗余变量;之后根据分析结果定义正常商户与高风险商户规则;按规则重新提取高风险商户及正常商户样本;接着采用决策树模型进行训练,通过训练好的决策树模型计算所有样本变量的输出,作为一个新的风险指标变量;随后,对新的样本数据采用逻辑回归算法训练模型.使用上述的方法针对各类欺诈交易商户分别进行训练建模.最后将商户样本数据分别输入各个模型,进行加权平均,得到商户的风险评分结果.%This paper presents a merchant risk evaluation method and system based on data mining technology. We analyze merchant behavior characteristics by comparing the transaction differences between normal merchants and fraud merchants, therefor define merchant risk characteristic variables and fraud rules, and then preprocess transaction data with decision tree model, score merchant risk of each type with logistic regression model, and finally evaluate merchant total risk by calculating weighted average of merchant risk scores with different risk types.

  1. System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Adam David; Osborn, Douglas; Jones, Katherine A; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Cohn, Brian; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; DeMenno, Mercy; Thomas, Maikael A.; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Parks, Ethan Rutledge; Jeantete, Brian A

    2017-09-01

    In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

  2. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  3. A scalable distribution network risk evaluation framework via symbolic dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Yuan

    Full Text Available Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk.This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors - device, structure, load and special operation - a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic.

  4. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  5. Research on Flight Fatigue Risk Evaluation Index System Based on AHP Method%基于AHP的飞行疲劳风险评价指标体系研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    牟海鹰; 吴锋广

    2015-01-01

    飞行员疲劳是现代航空运输中必须关注的问题。建立科学有效的评价指标体系,是准确评定飞行疲劳的基础。层次分析法可有效用于飞行疲劳的评定,运用层次分析法建立的飞行疲劳风险评价指标体系可以划分为社会因素、个人因素和组织因素3个二级指标及相关的21个三级指标,同时可以运用层次分析法计算各指标的权重并进行层次总排序。对中国民航18名飞行员的调查验证了模型的可行性,该模型可以用于飞行疲劳风险量化管理。%The pilot fatigue is must be concerned in modern air transport. It is the basis of accurate evaluation of flight fatigue to establish a scientific and effective evaluation index system. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can be effectively used in flight fatigue assessment. The flight fatigue risk evaluation index system, which was established by using the AHP, can be divided into 3 secondary indicators and related 21 tertiary indicators. The secondary indicators consist of social factors, personal factors and organizational factors. As the same time, the AHP can be used to calculate the weight of each index and hierarchy total taxis. The survey of 18 CAAC pilots verifies the feasibility of the model. The model can be used for fatigue risk quantification management.

  6. Digital Identifier Systems: Comparative Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Khedmatgozar

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Identifier is one of the main elements in identifying an object in digital environment. Digital identifier systems were developed followed by a lot of problems such as violation of persistency and uniqueness of physical identifiers and URL in digital environment. These identifiers try to guarantee uniqueness and persistency of hostnames by using indirect names for Domain Name System (DNS. The main objective of this research is to identify qualified digital identifier system among other systems. To achieve the research objective, researchers have considered two major steps: first, identifying main criteria for distinguishing digital identifier based on literature review and focus group interview; and second, performing a comparative evaluation on common identifier systems in the world. Findings of first step demonstrated seven main criteria in three domains for distinguishing digital identifier systems: identifier uniqueness and persistency in the identifier features domain, digital identification, digital uniqueness, digital persistency and digital actionability in the digital coverage domain, and globality in the comprehensiveness of scope domain. In the second step, results of the comparative evaluation on common identifier systems indicated that six identifier systems, included, DOI, Handle, UCI, URN, ARK and PURL, are appropriate choices for using as a digital identifier system. Also, according to these results, three identification systems Including NBN, MARIAM and ISNI were identified as suitable choices for digital identification in certain specialized fields. According to many benefits of using these identifiers in important applied fields, such as, digital content chains and networks integration, digital right management, cross referencing, digital libraries and citation analysis, results of this study can help digital environment experts to diagnose digital identifier and their effective use in applied fields.

  7. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  8. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from preo

  9. Research on ice disaster risk evaluation model of power system considering multi-factors%计及多因素的电网冰灾风险评估模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张勇军; 许亮; 吴成文

    2012-01-01

    For comprehensively evaluating the ice disaster risk of power system, the analytic method with the inclusion of the effect of multi-factors is proposed. The climate of ice disaster is modeled at first. Pearson-III distribution is adopted to describe the probability distribution of year's ice extreme value. The relationship between the grid's designed ice thickness and the year's ice extreme value is presented. Then the elements' influences on the line outage model are studied, including ice thickness, the use of de-icing machine and the rate of resource guarantee. The line outage model is created by using fuzzy inference system. On that basis, the ice disaster risk evaluation model of power system is created. The simulation results show that the proposed model can comprehensively and reasonably assess the ice disaster risk including multi-factors. It is concluded that the use of de-icing machine and other measures can effectively reduce the risk. So it can provide beneficial reference and advice for power department.%为综合评价电网遭受的冰灾风险,提出了一种计及多因素的电网冰灾风险评估模型.首先对冰灾气候建模,采用皮尔森Ⅲ分布描述年极值冰厚概率分布,并给出电网设计冰厚与年极值冰厚的关系;接着分析了覆冰厚度、融冰机配置和资源保障率等因素对元件停运模型的影响,并通过模糊推理系统建立线路的停运模型.在此基础上建立电网的冰灾风险评估模型,对算例的仿真结果表明,该方法可以准确、合理地考虑多种因素对电网冰灾风险的影响,并指出采用融冰机等措施能够有效地减小电网的运行风险,从而为电力部门的运行和管理提供有益的参考和意见.

  10. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  11. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment system

    OpenAIRE

    Marfo, Sariyu; Ehler, Shane; Fields, Ryan; Negron, Jamaries Benitez; Skopak, Shane; Junek, John; Zarzaca, Justin; Perrotta, Robert; Team CQ Alpha; Cohort 311-141A

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence. Human-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept con...

  12. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  13. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    that information and knowledge on new technology and innovation should be made available to the farmers. And also those farmers with less experience and more female should be encouraged and integrated into the agricultural production and innovation systems. Supply of inputs of the innovative facilities should...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...

  14. Predicting mortality after congenital heart surgeries: Evaluation of the Aristotle and Risk Adjustement in Congenital Heart surgery-1 risk prediction scoring systems: A retrospective single center analysis of 1150 patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shreedhar S Joshi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate Aristotle basic complexity and Aristotle comprehensive complexity (ABC and ACC and risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery-1 (RACHS-1 prediction models for in hospital mortality after surgery for congenital heart disease in a single surgical unit. Materials and Methods: Patients younger than 18 years, who had undergone surgery for congenital heart diseases from July 2007 to July 2013 were enrolled. Scoring for ABC and ACC scoring and assigning to RACHS-1 categories were done retrospectively from retrieved case files. Discriminative power of scoring systems was assessed with area under curve (AUC of receiver operating curves (ROC. Calibration (test for goodness of fit of the model was measured with Hosmer-Lemeshow modification of χ2 test. Net reclassification improvement (NRI and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI were applied to assess reclassification. Results: A total of 1150 cases were assessed with an all-cause in-hospital mortality rate of 7.91%. When modeled for multivariate regression analysis, the ABC (χ2 = 8.24, P = 0.08, ACC (χ2 = 4.17 , P = 0.57 and RACHS-1 (χ2 = 2.13 , P = 0.14 scores showed good overall performance. The AUC was 0.677 with 95% confidence interval (CI of 0.61-0.73 for ABC score, 0.704 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76 for ACC score and for RACHS-1 it was 0.607 (95%CI: 0.55-0.66. ACC had an improved predictability in comparison to RACHS-1 and ABC on analysis with NRI and IDI. Conclusions: ACC predicted mortality better than ABC and RCAHS-1 models. A national database will help in developing predictive models unique to our populations, till then, ACC scoring model can be used to analyze individual performances and compare with other institutes.

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  16. Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Bareikaitė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

  17. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  18. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  19. 装备质量管理风险评估指标体系与评估模型%Research on Risk Assessment Index System and Evaluation Model for Equipment Quality Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李元左; 姚宏林; 郭瑞平

    2013-01-01

    In accordance with the characteristics of equipment quality management ,risk factors have been analyzed .According to the design principles of indexes system ,the index system structure of risk assessment is constructed .And then ,the evaluation model is constructed which based on ana-lytic network process (ANP) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) .The practical case demon-strates satisfactory practicality and effectiveness .%根据装备质量管理的特点,分析了装备质量管理的风险因素,依据指标体系的设计原则,建立了装备质量管理风险评估的指标体系结构,给出了基于网络层次分析法和粒子群优化算法的的装备质量管理风险评估模型,最后给出了实例分析。

  20. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  1. Evaluating microcystin exposure risk through fish consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Poste, Amanda E.; Hecky, Robert E.; Guildford, Stephanie J.

    2011-01-01

    Microcystin is a cyanobacterial hepatotoxin that is found worldwide, and poses a serious threat to the ecological communities in which it is found as well as to those who rely on these waters for drinking, sanitation, or as a food source. Microcystin is known to accumulate in fish and other aquatic biota, however the prevalence of microcystin in fish tissue and the human health risks posed by microcystin exposure through fish consumption remain poorly resolved. Here we show that microcystin i...

  2. Delivery Service Evaluation System Based on Online Consumers Risk%基于网上消费者风险的快递服务满意度分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏斐翡

    2011-01-01

    Aiming at the risk aroused by online shopping in recent years, the relationship of delivery service quality and risk perceptions of network consumers was discussed. It was of great significance to increase customer satisfaction and the success rate of electronic commerce services. The delivery service evaluation system was set up based on online consumers risk perception model. Then the importance degree of delivery service risk elements of online consumer and the difference between importance degree and satisfaction degree of delivery service were both tested and estimated with the Kano model and structured questionnaires. Finally the two kinds of testing results above were contrastively analyzed to bring up some problems that are worth our attention and focus on delivery service of our country.%针对近年来我国网购流程中引发的消费者网购带来的风险问题,研究了服务质量与网购消费者风险感知的关系,对提高顾客满意度和电子商务服务的成功率有较为重要的意义.根据我国网上消费者风险感知模型建立快递服务质量评价指标体系,利用卡诺模型采用问卷调查法,对网上消费者快递服务风险重要度评价与各快递服务指标的满意度、重要性评价及其差值进行了测评和对比分析,在数据分析的基础上提出了我国快递服务质量值得引起重视的几个问题.

  3. Study on Evaluation System of Universtiy Students' Perceieved Risks of Online Shopping%大学生网络购物感知风险评价体系研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏永林; 吴婷艳

    2011-01-01

    本文根据大学生网络购物的特点,提出了大学生在网络购物过程中的各感知风险因素,通过问卷调查对西安市几所高校的大学生进行网络购物各个风险因素的实证研究,利用SPSS工具从有效问卷中提炼出了大学生网络购物过程中的五大感知风险维度,建立了大学生网络购物感知风险评价体系,并为网络企业针对大学生进行网络营销提出了具体对策。%According to the characteristics of the universtiy student's shopping behavior on the intemet, we propose the perceived risks in the process of university student's shopping online.Carrying out an empirical research on the perceived risks of university student's shopping online through the questionnaire survey of university students in several universities,and using the Spss software statistical tools to extract five great perceived risk factors of university student's shopping online from 166 effective questionnaires ,we establish the percieved risks evaluation system of university students shopping online and provide specific eotmterplans for online enterprises to marketing.

  4. Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the desertification risk in threatened areas. The procedure is based on an eight-equation dynamic model of a generic human–resource system that can be applied to different desertification syndromes. For each application, interest focuses on finding all the possible long-term final states of the system and on defining the conditions that mark out sustainability and long-term desertification by means of unambiguous specific parameter relations. Th...

  5. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudell, Thomas P. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  6. STARS: The Space Transportation Architecture Risk System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1997-01-01

    Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization, an approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. The approach considers the uncertainty associated with the achievement of technology goals, the effect that the achieved level of technology will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between transportation system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of expected values and associated standard deviations of nonrecurring, recurring and the present value of transportation system life cycle cost. Typical results are presented to illustrate the application of the methodology.

  7. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  8. Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.

    2014-06-01

    Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

  9. How Damage Diversification Can Reduce Systemic Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Burkholz, Rebekka; Schweitzer, Frank

    2015-01-01

    We consider the problem of risk diversification in complex networks. Nodes represent e.g. financial actors, whereas weighted links represent e.g. financial obligations (credits/debts). Each node has a risk to fail because of losses resulting from defaulting neighbors, which may lead to large failure cascades. Classical risk diversification strategies usually neglect network effects and therefore suggest that risk can be reduced if possible losses (i.e., exposures) are split among many neighbors (exposure diversification, ED). But from a complex networks perspective diversification implies higher connectivity of the system as a whole which can also lead to increasing failure risk of a node. To cope with this, we propose a different strategy (damage diversification, DD), i.e. the diversification of losses that are imposed on neighboring nodes as opposed to losses incurred by the node itself. Here, we quantify the potential of DD to reduce systemic risk in comparison to ED. For this, we develop a branching proce...

  10. A framework for risk-benefit evaluations in biomedical research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Wendler, David

    2011-06-01

    Essentially all guidelines and regulations require that biomedical research studies have an acceptable risk-benefit profile. However, these documents offer little concrete guidance for implementing this requirement and determining when it is satisfied. As a result, those charged with risk-benefit evaluations currently assess the risk-benefit profile of biomedical research studies in unsystematic ways, raising concern that some research participants are not being protected from excessive risks and that some valuable studies involving acceptable risk are being rejected. The present paper aims to address this situation by delineating the first comprehensive framework, which is based on existing guidelines and regulations as well as the relevant literature, for risk-benefit evaluations in biomedical research.

  11. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  12. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  13. The endocannabinoid system and cardiometabolic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szmitko, Paul E; Verma, Subodh

    2008-08-01

    Worldwide, the rates of obesity are rapidly rising. Abdominal obesity in particular is associated with increased cardiovascular risk factors, namely increased triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, elevated blood pressure and increased plasma glucose. The cluster of these obesity-related metabolic disorders identifies individuals with the cardiometabolic syndrome, who are at particular risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. The accumulation of intra-abdominal fat and the subsequent development of visceral obesity rely on the body's mechanisms to store energy and to stimulate appetite. The endocannabinoid system has been implicated in the regulation of energy balance and has emerged as a critical target for the modulation of visceral obesity and insulin resistance. Its overactivity appears to be associated with the development of obesity. The current review examines the role of the endocannabinoid system in cardiometabolic disease and its basis as a target for modulating cardiovascular risk.

  14. Holistic evaluation of seismic risk in Barcelona

    OpenAIRE

    Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario; Marulanda Fraume, Mabel Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards covers the vulnerability of human and environmental systems to climate change and eight natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, drought, coastal erosion, and heat waves

  15. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-based energy technologies in the United States. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO/sub 4/, NO/sub 2/, and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analyzed. Example results: domestic wood burning has substantial potential impact, with an upper boundary exceeding that of coal; upper-boundary air pollution impacts of gas can exceed those of oil, because of NO/sub 2/. (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants - Implications for Public Policy. Three scenarios were examined, leading to estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 annual premature deaths, depending on year (1978 vs 2000) and scenario (holding total emissions constant vs 30% reduction). (4) health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7 x 10/sup -9/ average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5 x 10/sup -4/ for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be to be unrealistic. 39 references, 7 figures, 15 tables.

  16. A VV&A evaluation system based on hierarchical evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG Ke; YANG Ming; WANG Zi-cai

    2005-01-01

    Evaluation is the major activity of performing Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) of a simulation system. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reasonable and operable evaluation methods. Moreover,there are other problems to address in VV&A evaluation, such as index definition, conclusion analysis, etc. In this paper, a VV&A evaluation system is introduced to try to resolve these problems. The system is based on a method called hierarchical evaluation, and it uses a good combination of evaluation processes and indexes.First, a thorough analysis of the VV&A evaluation' s essentials and principles are given, then the uncertainty of the evaluation results caused by various analysis of the evaluators is pointed out, then a hierarchical evaluation mechanism based on evaluator weight and evaluation hierarchy is brought forward, and finally a comprehensive VV&A evaluation system with evaluation flow processing, index management and hierarchical evaluation fulfillment is established. The system gives good consideration to ease of operation, reasonableness of evaluation conclusion, and the ability to comprehensively resolve VV&A problems. Since VV&A is attracting more and more recognition, it is meaningful to provide a good system for implementing credible simulation systems. It is hoped that this VV&A evaluation will provide a good way.

  17. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  18. Risk factors for retained surgical items: a meta-analysis and proposed risk stratification system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffatt-Bruce, Susan D; Cook, Charles H; Steinberg, Steven M; Stawicki, Stanislaw P

    2014-08-01

    Retained surgical items (RSI) are designated as completely preventable "never events". Despite numerous case reports, clinical series, and expert opinions few studies provide quantitative insight into RSI risk factors and their relative contributions to the overall RSI risk profile. Existing case-control studies lack the ability to reliably detect clinically important differences within the long list of proposed risks. This meta-analysis examines the best available data for RSI risk factors, seeking to provide a clinically relevant risk stratification system. Nineteen candidate studies were considered for this meta-analysis. Three retrospective, case-control studies of RSI-related risk factors contained suitable group comparisons between patients with and without RSI, thus qualifying for further analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis 2.0 (BioStat, Inc, Englewood, NJ) software was used to analyze the following "common factor" variables compiled from the above studies: body-mass index, emergency procedure, estimated operative blood loss >500 mL, incorrect surgical count, lack of surgical count, >1 subprocedure, >1 surgical team, nursing staff shift change, operation "afterhours" (i.e., between 5 PM and 7 AM), operative time, trainee presence, and unexpected intraoperative factors. We further stratified resulting RSI risk factors into low, intermediate, and high risk. Despite the fact that only between three and six risk factors were associated with increased RSI risk across the three studies, our analysis of pooled data demonstrates that seven risk factors are significantly associated with increased RSI risk. Variables found to elevate the RSI risk include intraoperative blood loss >500 mL (odds ratio [OR] 1.6); duration of operation (OR 1.7); >1 subprocedure (OR 2.1); lack of surgical counts (OR 2.5); >1 surgical team (OR 3.0); unexpected intraoperative factors (OR 3.4); and incorrect surgical count (OR 6.1). Changes in nursing staff, emergency surgery, body

  19. Pension systems, intergenerational risk sharing and inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate intergenerational risk sharing in two-pillar pension systems with a pay-as-you-go pillar and a funded pillar. We consider shocks in productivity, depreciation of capital and inflation. The funded pension pillar can be either defined contribution or defined benefit, with benefits defin

  20. Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Engineering Life Cycle Processes IS 15288 Systems Engineering Life Cycle Processes IS 16085 Risk Management Process Quality ISO TC 176 ISO 9001 Quality...carefully define their “Context” as there is little guidance • integrate RSKM into their ISO 9001 clause 8.5.3 Preventive action • avoid offers

  1. Pension systems, intergenerational risk sharing and inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate intergenerational risk sharing in two-pillar pension systems with a pay-as-you-go pillar and a funded pillar. We consider shocks in productivity, depreciation of capital and inflation. The funded pension pillar can be either defined contribution or defined benefit, with benefits defin

  2. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  3. The risk evaluation of mine coal-dust explosion based on BP neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Lian-jun; CHENG Wei-min

    2007-01-01

    Introduced the theory of three types of hazardous sources, and it recognized and analysed such three types of hazardous sources as the factor of inherent hazardous source, factor of inducing hazardous source and factor of men, which affect the safety and reliability of coal-dust explosion risk system and then builds up the risk factor indices of coal-dust explosion according to analysis of conditions inducing the coal-dust explosion. It fixes the risk degree of coal-dust explosion risk system by analyzing loss probability and loss scope of risk system and by means of the probabilistic hazard evaluation method and risk matrix method, etc.. According to the feature of strong capability of nonlinear approximation of BP neural network, the paper designed the structure of BP neural network for the risk evaluation of the mine coal-dust explosion with BP neural network. And the weight of the network was finally determined by training the given samples so that the risk degree of samples to be measured could be exactly evaluated and the risk of mine coal-dust explosion could be alarmed in good time.

  4. Integrated system for seismic evaluations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, J.; Philippacopoulos, A.J.; Miller, C.A.; Costantino, C.J.; Graves, H.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the various features of the Seismic Module of the CARES system (Computer Analysis for Rapid Evaluation of Structures). This system was developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform rapid evaluations of structural behavior and capability of nuclear power plant facilities. The CARES is structured in a modular format. Each module performs a specific type of analysis i.e., static or dynamic, linear or nonlinear, etc. This paper describes the features of the Seismic Module in particular. The development of the Seismic Module of the CARES system is based on an approach which incorporates all major aspects of seismic analysis currently employed by the industry into an integrated system that allows for carrying out interactively computations of structural response to seismic motions. The code operates on a PC computer system and has multi-graphics capabilities. It has been designed with user friendly features and it allows for interactive manipulation of various analysis phases during the seismic design process. The capabilities of the seismic module include (a) generation of artificial time histories compatible with given design ground response spectra, (b) development of Power Spectral Density (PSD) functions associated with the seismic input, (c) deconvolution analysis using vertically propagating shear waves through a given soil profile, and (d) development of in-structure response spectra or corresponding PSD's. It should be pointed out that these types of analyses can also be performed individually by using available computer codes such as FLUSH, SAP, etc. The uniqueness of the CARES, however, lies on its ability to perform all required phases of the seismic analysis in an integrated manner. 5 refs., 6 figs.

  5. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  6. AHP-FCE Based Physical Exercise Risk Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Yi-zhi; DING Yong-sheng; XU Hong-an

    2007-01-01

    Exercise is a highly proven and beneficial health promotion modality. But it is very difficult to determine whether the person during exercise is safe. A unique and comprehensive approach is proposed to perform physical exercise risk evaluation (PERE), in which personalized factors are determined basing on grey correlation analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to structure the large numbers of risk factors, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to fuzzify the factors and compute the exercise risk level. Finally, an actual calculation example is used to verify the feasibility of the method.

  7. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  8. Evaluating Storage Systems for Lustre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oral, H. Sarp [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-08-20

    Storage systems are complex, including multiple subsystems and components. Sustained operations with top performance require all these subsystems and components working as expected. Having a detailed performance profile helps establishing a baseline. This baseline can be used for easier identification of possible future problems. A systematic bottom-to-top approach, starting with a detailed performance analysis of disks and moving up across layers and subsystems, provides a quantitative breakdown of each component's capabilities and bottlenecks. Coupling these low-level tests with Lustre-level evaluations will present a better understanding of performance expectations under different I/O workloads.

  9. Risk Evaluation of Qinghai–Tibet Power Grid Interconnection Project for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunbin Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project is the first power transmission project with the highest altitude, longest transmission lines, longest distance running across the plateau frozen ground, and highest iron tower in the world. The risk evaluation on it can identify the overall risk level and key risk factors, which can reduce risk-induced loss and promote sustainable construction. In this paper, the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project was evaluated by employing a matter-element extension model under a fuzzy environment. After building the risk evaluation index system, the performances and weights of criteria were qualitatively judged by three groups of experts in different fields, and then the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project was rated by employing matter-element extension model. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key risk criteria. The empirical results indicate the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project belongs to the “stronger” grade, tending to the “strongest” grade. “Social stability risk”, “altitude sickness seizure risk”, “permafrost-induced risk”, “severe weather-induced risk”, and “ecological destruction risk” are key sub-criteria, which should be paid more attention to when taking risk management measures. Finally, some countermeasures for key risks of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project were given. The findings in this paper can provide references for engineering managers and related stakeholders.

  10. Efficiency Evaluation of Energy Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kanoğlu, Mehmet; Dinçer, İbrahim

    2012-01-01

    Efficiency is one of the most frequently used terms in thermodynamics, and it indicates how well an energy conversion or process is accomplished. Efficiency is also one of the most frequently misused terms in thermodynamics and is often a source of misunderstanding. This is because efficiency is often used without being properly defined first. This book intends to provide a comprehensive evaluation of various efficiencies used for energy transfer and conversion systems including steady-flow energy devices (turbines, compressors, pumps, nozzles, heat exchangers, etc.), various power plants, cogeneration plants, and refrigeration systems. The book will cover first-law (energy based) and second-law (exergy based) efficiencies and provide a comprehensive understanding of their implications. It will help minimize the widespread misuse of efficiencies among students and researchers in energy field by using an intuitive and unified approach for defining efficiencies. The book will be particularly useful for a clear ...

  11. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-04

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  12. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-01

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  13. Advanced Risk Management and Monitoring System, ARMMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kil Yoo; Han, Sang Hoon; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    Many risk informed regulation and applications (RIR and A) are approved and used for the nuclear power plants(NPPs), and more RIR and A will be actively applied in Korea. Also, since Korean NPPs are recently exported to other country such as UAE, RIR and A would be applied to the exported NPPs. Thus, a tool which will help the user apply RIR and A is required. KAERI is being developing a tool, called ARMMS (Advanced Risk Management and Monitoring System), for this purpose. The design plan of ARMMS was introduced in the Ref, and in this paper, the actual implementation of ARMMS is introduced, and the performance monitoring module is introduced

  14. Understanding and managing risk in software systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fletcher, S.K.; Jansma, R.; Lim, J.; Murphy, M.; Wyss, G.

    1995-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems. This paper describes the concepts of the methodology, with emphasis on the experience of designing a toolset to support the methodology. Also presented are results of applying the methodology to two real software-based products: the software toolset itself, and a network firewall.

  15. Space Debris - Evaluation of risk perception and countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belviso, L.

    The problem of Space Debris not only belongs to purely technical domain Although the main effort is to establish legal background to handle with possible accident caused by space debris as well as finding countermeasures another relevant problem is the perception of risk by both general public and space operators The main objective of this paper concerns the analysis and comparison of real and perceived risk related to space debris in order to gives useful outputs for decision makers in both public and private sector of space operators A correct evaluation of the real risk deriving from space debris will be particularly useful in the next years to correctly evaluate launch and operational phases of commercial satellites as well as possible countermeasures to avoid or limitate damages In the public sector a correct evaluation of risk will represents an extremely useful tool to handle crisis management and promote correct information on space

  16. Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miglioretti Diana L

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building. Methods We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR of colorectal cancer (CRC incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms. Results Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms. Conclusions Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models.

  17. Risk-informed Maintenance for Non-coherent Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Ye

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with a complex engineered technological entity. The information provided by PSA has been increasingly implemented for regulatory purposes but rarely used in providing information for operation and maintenance activities. As one of the key parts in PSA, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) attempts to model and analyze failure processes of engineering and biological systems. The fault trees are composed of logic diagrams that display the state of the system and are constructed using graphical design techniques. Risk Importance Measures (RIMs) are information that can be obtained from both qualitative and quantitative aspects of FTA. Components within a system can be ranked with respect to each specific criterion defined by each RIM. Through a RIM, a ranking of the components or basic events can be obtained and provide valuable information for risk-informed decision making. Various RIMs have been applied in various applications. In order to provide a thorough understanding of RIMs and interpret the results, they are categorized with respect to risk significance (RS) and safety significance (SS) in this thesis. This has also tied them into different maintenance activities. When RIMs are used for maintenance purposes, it is called risk-informed maintenance. On the other hand, the majority of work produced on the FTA method has been concentrated on failure logic diagrams restricted to the direct or implied use of AND and OR operators. Such systems are considered as coherent systems. However, the NOT logic can also contribute to the information produced by PSA. The importance analysis of non-coherent systems is rather limited, even though the field has received more and more attention over the years. The non-coherent systems introduce difficulties in both qualitative and quantitative assessment of the fault tree compared with the coherent systems. In this thesis, a set

  18. Evaluation of malnutrition in patients with nervous system disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Liu, Yao-wen; Wang, Xue-feng; Liu, Guang-wei

    2014-10-01

    Nutritional deficiencies are independent risk factors for adverse outcomes in patients with nervous system disease. Patients with nervous system disease can often become malnourished due to swallowing difficulties or unconsciousness. This malnourishment increases hospitalization duration; average total hospital cost; occurrence of infection, pressure ulcers, and other complications. These problems need to be addressed in the clinic. In this paper, we review the relevant literature, including studies on influencing factors, evaluations, indexes, and methods: Our aim is to understand the current status of malnutrition in patients with nervous system disease and reasons associated with nutritional deficiencies by using malnutrition evaluation methods to assess the risk of nutritional deficiencies in the early stages.

  19. Seismic risk evaluation aided by IR thermography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinzato, E.; Cadelano, G.; Bison, P.; Petracca, A.

    2009-05-01

    Conservation of buildings in areas at seismic risk must take prevention into account. The safeguard architectonic heritage is an ambitious objective, but a priority for planning programmes at varying levels of decision making. Preservation and restoration activities must be optimized to cover a vast and widespread historical and architectonic heritage present in many countries. Masonry buildings requires an adequate level of knowledge based on the importance of structural geometry, which may include the damage, details of construction and properties of materials. For identification and classification of masonry is necessary to find shape, type and size of the elements, texture, size of mortar joints, assemblage. The recognition can be done through a visual inspection of the surface of walls, which can be examined, where is not visible, removing a layer of plaster. Thermography is an excellent tool for a fast survey and collection of vital information for this purpose, but it is extremely important define a precise procedure in the development of more efficient monitoring tools. Thermography is a non-destructive method that allows recognizing the structural damage below plaster, detecting the presence of discontinuity in masonry, for added storeys, cavity, filled openings, and repairs. Furthermore, the fast identification of subsurface state allows to select areas where other methods either more penetrating or partially destructive have to be applied. The paper reports experimental results achieved in the mainframe of the European project RECES Modiquus. The main aim of the project is to improve methods, techniques and instruments for facing antiseismic options. Both passive and active thermographic techniques have been applied in different weather conditions and time schemes. A dedicated algorithm has been developed to enhance the visibility of wall bonding.

  20. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  1. Risk-sharing versus risk-transfer in Islamic finance: An evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    HASAN, Zubair

    2015-01-01

    Some recent writings on Islamic finance have resuscitated the old‘no risk, no gain’ precept from the earlier literature in the wake of current financial crisis. They argue that the basic reason for the recurrence of such crisesis the conventional interest-based financial system that rests purelyon transfer of risks. In contrast, Islam shuns interest and promotes sharing of risks, not their transfer.The distinction is used to make a case for replacing the conventional system with the Islamic; ...

  2. A Case-Based System for Construction Project Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Lan-rong; ZHANG Jin-long

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a Case-Based system for assisting construction project managers in identifying risk factors and the corresponding construction project risk. The construction project risk identification model captures the case, acquired from previous completed construction projects and experience. A prototype is developed based on the proposed Case-Based system to determine risk factors along with their risk effects.

  3. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk...

  4. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  5. Abdominal obesity, cardiometabolic risk and endocannabinoid system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bittolo Bon

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Abdominal obesity is the most prevalent manifestation of metabolic syndrome and is of central importance in the definition of global cardiometabolic risk. Visceral adipose tissue releases a large number of bioactive mediators, which influence body weight homeostasis, insulin resistance, alterations in lipids, blood pressure, coagulation, fibrinolysis and inflammation, leading to increased risk of cardiovascular events and of type 2 diabetes. Lifestyle modification is the first-line approach to the management of abdominal obesity and metabolic syndrome. However for patients at higher risk, who cannot achieve an appreciable reduction in weight and in global cardiometabolic risk with lifestyle modification alone, an adjunctive long term pharmacotherapy should be considered. The endocannabinoid system activity regulates food intake and metabolic factors through cannabinoid-1 (CB1 receptor located in multiple sites, including hypothalamus and limbic forebrain, adipose tissue, skeletal muscle, liver and the gastrointestinal tract. Evidence suggests that CB1 receptor blockade offers a novel therapeutic strategy. Data from four phase III trials suggest that rimonabant, the first cannabinoid receptor inhibitor, modulates cardiometabolic risk factors, both through its impact on body weight and metabolic parameters such as HDL-cholesterol, tryglicerides, Hb1Ac, through direct pathways that are not related to weight loss.

  6. Vulnerability Analysis and Evaluation of Urban Road System in Tianjin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y. Q.; Wu, X.

    In recent years, with the development of economy, the road construction of our country has entered into a period of rapid growth. The road transportation network has been expanding and the risk of disasters is increasing. In this paper we study the vulnerability of urban road system in Tianjin. After analyzed many risk factors of the urban road system security, including road construction, road traffic and the natural environment, we proposed an evaluation index of vulnerability of urban road system and established the corresponding evaluation index system. Based on the results of analysis and comprehensive evaluation, appropriate improvement measures and suggestions which may reduce the vulnerability of the road system and improve the safety and reliability of the road system are proposed.

  7. The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

  8. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  9. Proximity systems: Analysis of health risks; Varchi magneticianalysis of health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbaro, V.; Bartolini, P.; Donato, A. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Ingegneria Biomedica; Militello, C.; Polichetti, A.; Vecchia, P. [Istituto Superiore di Sanita`, Rome (Italy). Lab. di Fisica

    1996-03-01

    The results of a study on the magnetic fields generated by proximity systems for the controlled access of personnel are reported. Besides data from experimental measurements, the results are presented of theoretical calculations of induced currents inside the body. Health risks are also evaluated based on a comparison with the most advanced international standards. Finally, possible effects of interference with implanted pacemakers are analyzed in detail.

  10. Evaluating invasion risk for freshwater fishes in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Marr

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Africa, as a signatory of the Convention on Biological Diversity, has an obligation to identify, prioritise and manage invasive species and their introduction pathways. However, this requires knowledge of the introduction pathways, factors influencing establishment success, invasive potential, current distributions and ecological impacts. Objectives: To evaluate the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK to predict the invasion risk posed by fish species proposed for introduction into South Africa. Method: FISK assessments were compiled for species whose invasion status in South Africa was known. A Receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis was conducted to calibrate the FISK for South Africa. The calibrated FISK was used to evaluate the risk that three species recently proposed for importation for aquaculture could become invasive in South Africa. Results: A FISK score of 14 was identified as the threshold to delineate between species that could become invasive in South Africa and those that are unlikely to become invasive. Of the three species evaluated, Silurus glanis had a high risk of becoming invasive in South Africa, Lates calcarifer was likely to be invasive and Oncorhynchus tshawytscha was unlikely to be invasive in South Africa. Conclusion: FISK was demonstrated to be a useful risk assessment tool to evaluate the invasion risk posed by species proposed for use in aquaculture. For the large number of fish imported for the pet trade, a rapid screening assessment to flag potentially high risk species was recommended prior to a full FISK assessment for flagged species.

  11. Physical activity benefits and risks on the gastrointestinal system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Donald

    2011-12-01

    This review evaluates the current understanding of the benefits and risks of physical activity and exercise on the gastrointestinal system. A significant portion of endurance athletes are affected by gastrointestinal symptoms, but most symptoms are transient and do not have long-term consequences. Conversely, physical activity may have a protective effect on the gastrointestinal system. There is convincing evidence that physical activity reduces the risk of colon cancer. The evidence is less convincing for gastric and pancreatic cancers, gastroesophageal reflux disease, peptic ulcer disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, cholelithiasis, diverticular disease, irritable bowel syndrome, and constipation. Physical activity may reduce the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease, although this has not been proven unequivocally. This article provides a critical review of the evidence-based literature concerning exercise and physical activity effects on the gastrointestinal system and provides physicians with a better understanding of the evidence behind exercise prescriptions for patients with gastrointestinal disorders. Well-designed prospective randomized trials evaluating the risks and benefits of exercise and physical activity on gastrointestinal disorders are recommended for future research.

  12. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  13. Evaluating fractionated space systems - Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, S.; Jenkins, S.; Wall, S.; Cole, B.; Bairstow, B.; Rouquette, N.; Dubos, G.; Ryan, T.; Zarifian, P.; Boutwell, J.

    DARPA has funded a number of teams to further refine its Fractionated Spacecraft vision. Several teams, including this team led by JPL, have been tasked to develop a tool for the evaluation of the Business case for a fractionated system architecture. This evaluation is to understand under what conditions and constraints the fractionated architecture make more sense (in a cost/benefit sense) than the traditional monolithic paradigm. Our approach to this evaluation is to generate and evaluate a variety of trade space options. These options include various sets of stimuli, various degrees of fractionation and various subsystem element properties. The stimuli include many not normally modeled such as technology obsolescence, funding profile changes and changes in mission objectives during the mission itself. The degrees of fractionation enable various traditional subsystem elements to be distributed across different free flyers which then act in concert as needed. This will enable key technologies to be updated as need dictates and availability allows. We have described our approach in a previous IEEE Aerospace conference paper but will briefly summarize here. Our approach to generate the Business Case evaluation is to explicitly model both the implementation and operation phases for the life cycle of a fractionated constellation. A variety of models are integrated into the Phoenix ModelCenter framework and are used to generate various intermediate data which is aggregated into the Present Strategic Value (PSV). The PSV is essentially the value (including the value of the embedded real options) minus the cost. These PSVs are calculated for a variety of configurations and scenarios including variations of various stimuli or uncertainties (e.g. supply chain delays, launch vehicle failures and orbital debris events). There are various decision options (e.g. delay, accelerate, cancel) which can now be exercised for each stimulus. We can compute the PSV for the various comb

  14. Fuzzy Evaluation of the Risk of Investment in Securities in the Portfolio Optimization Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Siniavskaya, O. A.; Zhelezko, B. A.

    2007-01-01

    Investment in securities always associates with the risk, but in practice it is enough difficult to evaluate the risk quantitatively. There is no united opinion about quantitative evaluation of the risk in the theory of finance. Two models of the risk evaluation are the most popularized: Value-at-Risk (VaR) model and risk interpretation as standard deviation of the security return.

  15. Does Corporate Governance Impact Risk Management System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petre BREZEANU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings forth the contribution of corporate governance to risk management system at the enterprise level. The research is a complex one, integrating both quantitative and qualitative information. The quantitative information consists of balance sheet and profit and loss account data while the qualitative one includes dummy variables reflecting the agency and monitoring costs which govern the relationship between managers and shareholders.

  16. Java Mission Evaluation Workstation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettinger, Ross; Watlington, Tim; Ryley, Richard; Harbour, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    The Java Mission Evaluation Workstation System (JMEWS) is a collection of applications designed to retrieve, display, and analyze both real-time and recorded telemetry data. This software is currently being used by both the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and the International Space Station (ISS) program. JMEWS was written in the Java programming language to satisfy the requirement of platform independence. An object-oriented design was used to satisfy additional requirements and to make the software easily extendable. By virtue of its platform independence, JMEWS can be used on the UNIX workstations in the Mission Control Center (MCC) and on office computers. JMEWS includes an interactive editor that allows users to easily develop displays that meet their specific needs. The displays can be developed and modified while viewing data. By simply selecting a data source, the user can view real-time, recorded, or test data.

  17. How damage diversification can reduce systemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkholz, Rebekka; Garas, Antonios; Schweitzer, Frank

    2016-04-01

    We study the influence of risk diversification on cascading failures in weighted complex networks, where weighted directed links represent exposures between nodes. These weights result from different diversification strategies and their adjustment allows us to reduce systemic risk significantly by topological means. As an example, we contrast a classical exposure diversification (ED) approach with a damage diversification (DD) variant. The latter reduces the loss that the failure of high degree nodes generally inflict to their network neighbors and thus hampers the cascade amplification. To quantify the final cascade size and obtain our results, we develop a branching process approximation taking into account that inflicted losses cannot only depend on properties of the exposed, but also of the failing node. This analytic extension is a natural consequence of the paradigm shift from individual to system safety. To deepen our understanding of the cascade process, we complement this systemic perspective by a mesoscopic one: an analysis of the failure risk of nodes dependent on their degree. Additionally, we ask for the role of these failures in the cascade amplification.

  18. Evaluating Damage Potential in Security Risk Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Weintraub

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A Continuous Monitoring System (CMS model is presented, having new improved capabilities. The system is based on the actual real-time configuration of the system. Existing risk scoring models assume damage potential is estimated by systems' owner, thus rejecting the information relying in the technological configuration. The assumption underlying this research is based on users' ability to estimate business impacts relating to systems' external interfaces which they use regularly in their business activities, but are unable to assess business impacts relating to internal technological components. According to the proposed model systems' damage potential is calculated using technical information on systems' components using a directed graph. The graph is incorporated into the Common Vulnerability Scoring Systems' (CVSS algorithm to produce risk scoring measures. Framework presentation includes system design, damage potential scoring algorithm design and an illustration of scoring computations.

  19. 后危机时代养老金制度的收益与风险评估%Efficiency and Risk Evaluation of Pension System in the Post - Crisis Era

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵青; 李珍

    2014-01-01

    Under the background of economic stagnation and population ageing in 1970s,many countries, represented by Chile,UK,Australia and Sweden,have reformed their traditional Pay - As - You - Go pension system. The post - crisis era is the right window time to evaluate the effect of those reformed pension system in various countries. This paper makes an evaluation of the real effect of the current pension system of the four countries. From the perspective of profit,the real rate of return of funding is often higher than the internal rate of return of PAYG. But if we take the total operating cost & transforming fees into consideration,the advantage of the Financial Defined Contribution( FDC)may not be that outstanding. The market risk of funding system is much higher than the PAYG as we use the coefficient of variation and VAR model to test. The NDC system in Sweden doesn’t perform as well as the old PAYG in terms of profit and risk aversion. Based on the essence of pension, which aims at poverty alleviation and providing a secure and stable income expectations for the elderly,this paper has proposed that we establish a pension system with PAYG as the main body,and other kinds of pension schemes as supplements to the basic part. That can be a rational choice for construction of pension system in the post - crisis era.%20世纪70年代以来,在经济滞涨与人口老龄化的背景下,以智利、英国、澳大利亚、瑞典为代表的各国纷纷对传统养老保险制度进行了改革。经济危机过后的时代,恰是检验改革国家养老金制度运行效果的时间窗口。从收益性角度来看,基金积累制的投资收益率一般要高于现收现付制的内含回报率,但若考虑个人账户基金管理的运营成本和转换费用,则这种优势将大打折扣。从风险的角度看,基金积累制的市场波动风险(用变异系数与 VaR 衡量)明显高于现收现付制。名义账户制在收益性与抵御风险

  20. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  1. Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Coles, Garill A.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2016-09-26

    This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalized cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.

  2. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    reactive mineral surface area. The formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces the amount of surface available to react with fluids. Our results show that negatively charged ion complexes, responsible for U transport, decreases when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower. Carbonate ion pairs however, may increase U mobility when radionuclide concentration is high and rock buffer capacity is low. The present work helps to orient future monitoring of this site in Brazil as well as of other sites where uranium is linked to igneous rock formations, without the presence of sulphides. Monitoring SO4 migration (in acidic leaching uranium sites) seems to be an efficient and simple way to track different hazards, especially in tropical conditions, where the succession of dry and wet periods increases the weathering action of the residual H2SO4. Nevertheless, models of risk evaluation should take into account reactive surface areas and neogenic minerals since they determine the U ion complex formation, which in turn, controls uranium mobility in natural systems. Keywords: uranium mining, reactive mineral surface area, uranium complexes, inverse modelling approach, risk evaluation

  3. Hyperspectral range imaging for transportation systems evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgelall, Raj; Rafert, J. B.; Atwood, Don; Tolliver, Denver D.

    2016-04-01

    Transportation agencies expend significant resources to inspect critical infrastructure such as roadways, railways, and pipelines. Regular inspections identify important defects and generate data to forecast maintenance needs. However, cost and practical limitations prevent the scaling of current inspection methods beyond relatively small portions of the network. Consequently, existing approaches fail to discover many high-risk defect formations. Remote sensing techniques offer the potential for more rapid and extensive non-destructive evaluations of the multimodal transportation infrastructure. However, optical occlusions and limitations in the spatial resolution of typical airborne and space-borne platforms limit their applicability. This research proposes hyperspectral image classification to isolate transportation infrastructure targets for high-resolution photogrammetric analysis. A plenoptic swarm of unmanned aircraft systems will capture images with centimeter-scale spatial resolution, large swaths, and polarization diversity. The light field solution will incorporate structure-from-motion techniques to reconstruct three-dimensional details of the isolated targets from sequences of two-dimensional images. A comparative analysis of existing low-power wireless communications standards suggests an application dependent tradeoff in selecting the best-suited link to coordinate swarming operations. This study further produced a taxonomy of specific roadway and railway defects, distress symptoms, and other anomalies that the proposed plenoptic swarm sensing system would identify and characterize to estimate risk levels.

  4. Surface Mine System Simulation and Safety Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rui-xin; YU Dong-fang; LI Xin-wang; YAO Xin-gang; LIU Yu

    2006-01-01

    Modern surface mines, either mono-system or multi-systems, need a large fleet of equipment consisting of excavators, loaders, haulers and auxiliary machines. Presently, the complexity of the system, the interference between sub-systems and the lag in management skills has been a bottle neck for improving productivity of the system. Based on the fact that the traditional tools for safety analysis have been insufficient to evaluate systematically and dynamically the safety risks, this paper tries to create a virtual reality tool consisting of human, machine and mines, using Pro/E and the 3D MAX software in order to evaluate visually the operations of typical mining equipment, such as the bucket wheel excavator (BWE), the shovel, the truck and the dragline. Within this virtual world, the behavior of the system, such as interaction, interference and potential risk can be replayed and reviewed visually. The objective of the study is to identify the critical safety issues of the system and to provide a convenient and powerful tool for safety training and safety management.

  5. [Development and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jing-yi; Chen, Hua; Zhu, Sheng-mei

    2010-09-21

    To study the design, implementation and clinical evaluation of an anesthesia information management system. To record, process and store peri-operative patient data automatically, all kinds of bedside monitoring equipments are connected into the system based on information integrating technology; after a statistical analysis of those patient data by data mining technology, patient status can be evaluated automatically based on risk prediction standard and decision support system, and then anesthetist could perform reasonable and safe clinical processes; with clinical processes electronically recorded, standard record tables could be generated, and clinical workflow is optimized, as well. With the system, kinds of patient data could be collected, stored, analyzed and archived, kinds of anesthesia documents could be generated, and patient status could be evaluated to support clinic decision. The anesthesia information management system is useful for improving anesthesia quality, decreasing risk of patient and clinician, and aiding to provide clinical proof.

  6. General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

  7. Evaluation of nosocomial infection risk using APACHE II scores in the neurological intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-Ying; Li, Shu-Juan; Yang, Nan; Hu, Wen-Li

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of using the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system for predicting the risk of nosocomial infection in the neurological intensive care unit (NICU), 216 patients transferred to NICU within 24hours of admission were retrospectively evaluated. Based on admission APACHE II scores, they were classified into three groups, with higher APACHE II scores representing higher infectious risk. The device utilization ratios and device-associated infection ratios of NICU patients were analyzed and compared with published reports on patient outcome. Statistical analysis of nosocomial infection ratios showed obvious differences between the high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups (pAPACHE II model in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection was 0.81, which proved to be reliable and consistent with the expectation. In addition, we found statistical differences in the duration of hospital stay (patient-days) and device utilization (device-days) between different risk groups (pAPACHE II scoring system was validated in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection, duration of patient-days and device-days, and providing accurate assessment of patients' condition, so that appropriate prevention strategies can be implemented based on admission APACHE II scores.

  8. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Bryan Hooper, Director, Office of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business... of Credit Risk Management. BILLING CODE 8025-01-P ... ADMINISTRATION SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY: Small Business Administration. ACTION: Notice; extension of...

  9. Empirical likelihood-based evaluations of Value at Risk models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is a basic and very useful tool in measuring market risks. Numerous VaR models have been proposed in literature. Therefore, it is of great interest to evaluate the efficiency of these models, and to select the most appropriate one. In this paper, we shall propose to use the empirical likelihood approach to evaluate these models. Simulation results and real life examples show that the empirical likelihood method is more powerful and more robust than some of the asymptotic method available in literature.

  10. Automated systems to identify relevant documents in product risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, Xue Ting; Koh, Yvonne; Yap, Chun Wei

    2012-03-02

    Product risk management involves critical assessment of the risks and benefits of health products circulating in the market. One of the important sources of safety information is the primary literature, especially for newer products which regulatory authorities have relatively little experience with. Although the primary literature provides vast and diverse information, only a small proportion of which is useful for product risk assessment work. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the possibility of using text mining to automate the identification of useful articles, which will reduce the time taken for literature search and hence improving work efficiency. In this study, term-frequency inverse document-frequency values were computed for predictors extracted from the titles and abstracts of articles related to three tumour necrosis factors-alpha blockers. A general automated system was developed using only general predictors and was tested for its generalizability using articles related to four other drug classes. Several specific automated systems were developed using both general and specific predictors and training sets of different sizes in order to determine the minimum number of articles required for developing such systems. The general automated system had an area under the curve value of 0.731 and was able to rank 34.6% and 46.2% of the total number of 'useful' articles among the first 10% and 20% of the articles presented to the evaluators when tested on the generalizability set. However, its use may be limited by the subjective definition of useful articles. For the specific automated system, it was found that only 20 articles were required to develop a specific automated system with a prediction performance (AUC 0.748) that was better than that of general automated system. Specific automated systems can be developed rapidly and avoid problems caused by subjective definition of useful articles. Thus the efficiency of product risk management can be

  11. Automated systems to identify relevant documents in product risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wee Xue

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Product risk management involves critical assessment of the risks and benefits of health products circulating in the market. One of the important sources of safety information is the primary literature, especially for newer products which regulatory authorities have relatively little experience with. Although the primary literature provides vast and diverse information, only a small proportion of which is useful for product risk assessment work. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the possibility of using text mining to automate the identification of useful articles, which will reduce the time taken for literature search and hence improving work efficiency. In this study, term-frequency inverse document-frequency values were computed for predictors extracted from the titles and abstracts of articles related to three tumour necrosis factors-alpha blockers. A general automated system was developed using only general predictors and was tested for its generalizability using articles related to four other drug classes. Several specific automated systems were developed using both general and specific predictors and training sets of different sizes in order to determine the minimum number of articles required for developing such systems. Results The general automated system had an area under the curve value of 0.731 and was able to rank 34.6% and 46.2% of the total number of 'useful' articles among the first 10% and 20% of the articles presented to the evaluators when tested on the generalizability set. However, its use may be limited by the subjective definition of useful articles. For the specific automated system, it was found that only 20 articles were required to develop a specific automated system with a prediction performance (AUC 0.748 that was better than that of general automated system. Conclusions Specific automated systems can be developed rapidly and avoid problems caused by subjective definition of useful

  12. Automated systems to identify relevant documents in product risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Product risk management involves critical assessment of the risks and benefits of health products circulating in the market. One of the important sources of safety information is the primary literature, especially for newer products which regulatory authorities have relatively little experience with. Although the primary literature provides vast and diverse information, only a small proportion of which is useful for product risk assessment work. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the possibility of using text mining to automate the identification of useful articles, which will reduce the time taken for literature search and hence improving work efficiency. In this study, term-frequency inverse document-frequency values were computed for predictors extracted from the titles and abstracts of articles related to three tumour necrosis factors-alpha blockers. A general automated system was developed using only general predictors and was tested for its generalizability using articles related to four other drug classes. Several specific automated systems were developed using both general and specific predictors and training sets of different sizes in order to determine the minimum number of articles required for developing such systems. Results The general automated system had an area under the curve value of 0.731 and was able to rank 34.6% and 46.2% of the total number of 'useful' articles among the first 10% and 20% of the articles presented to the evaluators when tested on the generalizability set. However, its use may be limited by the subjective definition of useful articles. For the specific automated system, it was found that only 20 articles were required to develop a specific automated system with a prediction performance (AUC 0.748) that was better than that of general automated system. Conclusions Specific automated systems can be developed rapidly and avoid problems caused by subjective definition of useful articles. Thus the efficiency of

  13. 基于AHP的信息系统风险处理评估研究%Research on the Evaluation of Risk Treatment on Information Systems Based on AHP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁旭

    2012-01-01

    In view of the information system security risk management problems in situation assessment, presents information security risk assessment processing model based on the AHP analysis method, and applies administrative levels to undertake the risk factors for weight calculation. Research results show that, this model could effectively provide a scientific basis for the infor- mation system risk management.%针对信息系统安全态势评估中风险处理的问题.提出基于AHP分析法的信息安全风险处理评估模型,并运用层次分析法进行风险处理因素权重的计算。研究结果表明.该模型能有效地对信息系统的风险处理提供科学依据。

  14. Sex differences in self-reported risk-taking propensity on the Evaluation of Risks scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killgore, William D S; Grugle, Nancy L; Killgore, Desiree B; Balkin, Thomas J

    2010-06-01

    The Evaluation of Risks scale was recently developed as a self-report inventory for assessing risk-taking propensity, but further validation is necessary because most studies have predominantly included male subjects. Because males commonly exhibit greater risk-taking propensity than females, evidence of such a sex difference on the scale would further support its construct validity. 29 men and 25 women equated for age (range: 18 to 36 years) completed the scale. Internal consistency of the scale was generally modest, particularly among women. Men scored significantly higher than women on four of nine indices of risk-taking propensity, including Danger Seeking, Energy, Invincibility, and Total Risk-Propensity. Factors measuring thrill seeking and danger seeking correlated positively with a concurrent measure of sensation seeking. Although the higher scores exhibited by men are consistent with prior research on other measures of risk-taking, further research on this scale with samples including women is warranted.

  15. Evaluation of Security of Mine Ventilation Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何书建; 彭担任; 翟成

    2002-01-01

    A mine ventilation system has a deterministic function for the safety of coal production and for the control of mine accidents. So, it has an importa nt meaning to evaluate the security of a mine ventilation system. This paper studied the evaluation index system of the security of a mine ventilation system, and the security of a mine ventilation system was described quantitatively in the saf ety degree. Finally, an example of the security evaluation was given .

  16. Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2017-04-24

    The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. A Decision Support System for Evaluatingquality Safety Risk Contaminated By Water Pollution in Aquaculture Pond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dong; Li, Nan; Huang, Honghui; Fu, Zetian; Zhang, Xiaoshuan

    Water pollution is becoming the major factor damaging the sustainable development of aquaculture and the quality security of aquatic product in China. This paper introduces a decision support system for evaluating and managing quality risk contaminated by water pollution. The architecture, main components and their functions, especially a series of risk evaluation methods and models are described. At present, the system is in pilot in the city of Beijing in China. The stage achievements in developing the system are summarized.

  18. Systems Evaluation Methods, Models, and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Siefeng; Xie, Naiming; Yuan, Chaoqing

    2011-01-01

    A book in the Systems Evaluation, Prediction, and Decision-Making Series, Systems Evaluation: Methods, Models, and Applications covers the evolutionary course of systems evaluation methods, clearly and concisely. Outlining a wide range of methods and models, it begins by examining the method of qualitative assessment. Next, it describes the process and methods for building an index system of evaluation and considers the compared evaluation and the logical framework approach, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the data envelopment analysis (DEA) relative efficiency evaluation method. Unique

  19. Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzu, Simone; Tedeschi, Gabriele

    2012-09-01

    In this paper we develop an interbank market with heterogeneous financial institutions that enter into lending agreements on different network structures. Credit relationships (links) evolve endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents' performance. By changing the agent's trust on its neighbor's performance, interbank linkages self-organize themselves into very different network architectures, ranging from random to scale-free topologies. We study which network architecture can make the financial system more resilient to random attacks and how systemic risk spreads over the network. To perturb the system, we generate a random attack via a liquidity shock. The hit bank is not automatically eliminated, but its failure is endogenously driven by its incapacity to raise liquidity in the interbank network. Our analysis shows that a random financial network can be more resilient than a scale free one in case of agents' heterogeneity.

  20. Risk Evaluation on Logistics Finance of Agricultural Products Based on Fuzzy-AHP Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan; PANG; Yangkun; XIA

    2015-01-01

    The development of logistics finance business for agricultural products is the best way to realize the common interests of logistics enterprises,small and medium-sized agricultural product enterprises and financial institutions,which will contribute to the development of China’s new socialist rural economy and the construction of " two-oriented society". As the agricultural products have some special attributes,it’s easy to create the risk in carrying out the logistics finance business. The paper constructs a risk evaluation indicator system for logistics finance of agricultural product,and uses the Fuzzy-AHP model to evaluate. The results show that the comprehensive risk level is normal risk,which shows that third-party logistics enterprises can carry out the logistics financial business of agricultural products,but the risks from logistics enterprises and agricultural collateral need to be prevented.

  1. Evaluation Model of System Survivability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yuling; PAN Shiying; TIAN Junfeng

    2006-01-01

    This paper puts forward a survivability evaluation model, SQEM(Survivability Quantitative Evaluation Model), based on lucubrating the main method existed. Then it defines the measurement factors and parses the survivability mathematically, introduces state change probability and the idea of setting the weights of survivability factors dynamically into the evaluating process of SQEM, which improved the accuracy of evaluation. An example is presented to illustrate the way SQEM works, which demonstrated the validity and feasibility of the method.

  2. Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Jianxing; TAN Zhendong

    2005-01-01

    Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10-6 to 10-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

  3. Study on risk measurement about ammunition-rocket system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gu Xiaohui; Zhao Youshou

    2005-01-01

    Modern ammunition-rocket system is a complicated multidisciplinary system. During its development,undetermined factors will bring many risks. This paper elaborates the importance of risk analysis approach to ammunition-rocket system development and analyses various methods of risk analysis and estimation. Combined with practical situation of weapon system development, the risk measurement function with characteristics of risk preference is given provided that the risk preference characteristic of behavior maker is risk neutral of fixed constant. The development risk analysis based on risk measurement function enables effective risk decision to be made on the basis of quantified risk.Taking anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example, the paper verifies the efficiency of the method and shows that it has a scientific and practical value.

  4. CRISIS: A System for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica Y. Sanchez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In a situation of an unexpected catastrophe, uncertainty and demand for information are constant. In such a disaster scenario, the CRISIS system arises as a tool to contribute to previous coordination, procedure validation, exercise execution, a good and frequent communication among organizations, and weakness and threat assessment for an appropriate risk management. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. For Argentinean society, it is a necessity to switch from the current handcrafted, bureaucratic emergency management method to a decision-making management model. Previous coordination, exercise execution, a fluid communication among institutions, and threats and weaknesses assessment are required for a proper risk management. With that goal in mind, it is important to reduce confusion, avoid the duplication of efforts to fulfill the same tasks, and have access to a complete vision of the situation, generated from the data of all the organizations taking part. The CRISIS system is a secure web application, accessible to every node in a network formed by the organizations which have complementary responsibilities during prevention and response. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, media (organization and resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. Currently, there are toxicological and epidemiological emergency models available. The present paper analyses, from the perspectives related to risk management for emergencies and disasters, the strengths and weaknesses

  5. Development and application of risk management system for consumer products in compliance with global harmonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jae Bin; Ahn, Il Young; Cho, Keun Tae; Kim, Yeon Joo; Kim, Hyung Sik; Lee, Byung-Mu

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to the wide variety of chemicals used for manufacturing consumer products commonly occurs daily and the consequences to health are beneficial. However, some of these products are hazardous and exert deleterious effects on humans and the ecosystem. To protect consumers from exposure to hazardous chemicals, appropriate risk management systems are needed. Developed countries such as the United States and Canada have developed their own risk management systems for regulating hazardous agents. However, the risk management systems prepared by developed countries may not be readily applicable to developing or underdeveloped countries because of certain economic, political, cultural, or social factors in each country. In general, a risk management framework includes evaluation components of risk assessment, risk confrontation, risk intervention, risk communication, and risk management, but these may differ in specifics. The European Commission (EC) requires a socioeconomic analysis for formulating restrictions suggested by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). The EC has an early warning system for safety management termed the Rapid Alert System (RAPEX). Korea, Australia, and Japan also developed integrated network systems for risk management of consumer products. Monitoring entails the collection of information and evaluation. The risk assessment process includes scientific evaluation of potential adverse health effects. Risk communication tasks are to (1) identify stakeholders, (2) develop stakeholder analysis, (3) assess stakeholder acceptability, (4) consult with stakeholders, (5) inform stakeholders about their options, (6) evaluate control options, and (7) monitor changing issues. The risk management process involves weighing policy options and selecting regulatory options. The decision-making step is related to the determination of governmental or voluntary actions. This review examines the critical points of risk management system in Korea to effectively

  6. [Evaluating occupational health risk in titanium alloys production workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarova, E L

    2007-01-01

    The authors present data on evaluation of personified and non-personified occupational risk of health disorders in titanium alloys production workers, concerning hygienic, medical and biologic, social and psychologic criteria. One-digit assessment of the work conditions is suggested.

  7. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package Micr

  8. Risk of nosocomial bacteria transmissions: evaluation of cleaning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk of nosocomial bacteria transmissions: evaluation of cleaning methods of ... after which swabs were taken from the surface of the unclean probe and after probe disinfection by single and double paper wipe cleaning method. The swabs were cultured on Blood agar to determine the characteristics of the ... Article Metrics.

  9. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  10. Slip and fall risk on ice and snow:identification, evaluation and prevention

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Chuansi

    2004-01-01

    Slip and fall accidents and associated injuries on ice and snow are prevalent among outdoor workers and the general public in winter in many regions of the world. To understand and tackle this multi-factorial problem, a multidisciplinary approach was used to identify and evaluate slip and fall risks, and to propose recommendations for prevention of slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces. Objectives were to present a systems perspective of slip and fall accidents and related risk factors; t...

  11. Culturally Responsive Evaluation Meets Systems-Oriented Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Veronica G.; Parsons, Beverly A.

    2017-01-01

    The authors of this article each bring a different theoretical background to their evaluation practice. The first author has a background of attention to culturally responsive evaluation (CRE), while the second author has a background of attention to systems theories and their application to evaluation. Both have had their own evolution of…

  12. Evaluating the risk of coal bursts in underground coal mines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mark Christopher⇑; Gauna Michael

    2016-01-01

    Coal bursts involve the sudden, violent ejection of coal or rock into the mine workings. They are almost always accompanied by a loud noise, like an explosion, and ground vibration. Bursts are a particular haz-ard for miners because they typically occur without warning. Despite decades of research, the sources and mechanics of these events are not well understood, and therefore they are difficult to predict and control. Experience has shown, however, that certain geologic and mining factors are associated with an increased likelihood of a coal burst. A coal burst risk assessment consists of evaluating the degree to which these risk factors are present, and then identifying appropriate control measures to mitigate the hazard. This paper summarizes the U.S. and international experience with coal bursts, and describes the known risk factors in detail. It includes a framework that can be used to guide the risk assessment process.

  13. Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Szpyrka

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

  14. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  15. BREAST CANCER RISK EVALUATION - A CORRELATION BETWEEN MAMMOGRAPHIC DENSITY AND THE GAIL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Baytchev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The Gail model is a statistical tool, which assesses breast cancer probability, based on nonmodifiable risk factors. In contrast, the evaluation of mammographic breast density is an independent and dynamic risk factor influenced by interventions modifying breast cancer risk incidence. The aim of the present study is to compare the possibilities for risk factor integration and analysis and to search for a correlation between mammographic density and the Gail model for breast cancer risk evaluation. The subject of this prospective study is a cohort of 107 women at ages from 37 to 71 years, who have had benign breast diseases, digital mammograms, and Gail model risk evaluation. Mammographic density is evaluated in craniocaudal projection subjectively visually and objectively using the computer imaging software. (Image J software The Gail risk evaluation is completed using the standardized NCI questionnaire (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. In concordance with the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RAD by ACR, mammographic density is evaluated using a four-grade scale. Low density D1 (less than 25% was determined in 24 cases, D2 (25-50% in 36 cases, D3 (51-75% in 31 cases and high density D4 (greater than 75% in 16 cases. According to the Gail model, 80 (74,8% of the examined patients did not have an increased risk (less than 1,67% for a five-year period, whereas the remaining 27 (25,2% had a statistically significant increase in risk (greater than 1,67% for a five-year period. Women with increased risk more often present with denser breast (34% with D3, D4 versus 18,3% for D1, D2. The Gail model does not adequately explain the correlation between breast density and statistically calculated risk. The development of more detailed tools, which take into consideration breast density, as well as other risk factors, may be helpful for a more accurate evaluation of the individual risk for breast cancer.

  16. Observing System Evaluations Using GODAE Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    Journal of Marine Systems 35...dimensional temperature fields: A first approach based on simulated observations. Journal of Marine Systems 46:85-98. Langland, R.H., and N.L. Baker...capabilities of multisatellite altimeter missions: First results with real data in the Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 65:190-211.

  17. Functional Risk Modeling for Lunar Surface Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Fraser; Mathias, Donovan; Go, Susie; Nejad, Hamed

    2010-01-01

    We introduce an approach to risk modeling that we call functional modeling , which we have developed to estimate the capabilities of a lunar base. The functional model tracks the availability of functions provided by systems, in addition to the operational state of those systems constituent strings. By tracking functions, we are able to identify cases where identical functions are provided by elements (rovers, habitats, etc.) that are connected together on the lunar surface. We credit functional diversity in those cases, and in doing so compute more realistic estimates of operational mode availabilities. The functional modeling approach yields more realistic estimates of the availability of the various operational modes provided to astronauts by the ensemble of surface elements included in a lunar base architecture. By tracking functional availability the effects of diverse backup, which often exists when two or more independent elements are connected together, is properly accounted for.

  18. Feedback Improvement in Automatic Program Evaluation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skupas, Bronius

    2010-01-01

    Automatic program evaluation is a way to assess source program files. These techniques are used in learning management environments, programming exams and contest systems. However, use of automated program evaluation encounters problems: some evaluations are not clear for the students and the system messages do not show reasons for lost points.…

  19. Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2016-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

  20. Failure Effects Evaluation for ATC Automation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available ATC (air traffic control automation system is a complex system, which helps maintain the air traffic order, guarantee the flight interval, and prevent aircraft collision. It is essential to ensure the safety of air traffic. Failure effects evaluation is an important part of ATC automation system reliability engineering. The failure effects evaluation of ATC automation system is aimed at the effects of modules or components which affect the performance and functionality of the system. By analyzing and evaluating the failure modes and their causes and effects, some reasonable improvement measures and preventive maintenance plans can be established. In this paper, the failure effects evaluation framework considering performance and functionality of the system is established on the basis of reliability theory. Some algorithms for the quantitative evaluation of failure effects on performance of ATC automation system are proposed. According to the algorithms, the quantitative evaluation of reliability, availability, maintainability, and other assessment indicators can be calculated.

  1. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence comp

  2. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

  3. Reducing Risk in DoD Software-Intensive Systems Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    appropriate. The purpose of this research is to analyze why DoD risk management processes have not been more effective in reducing software...every software-intensive weapon system development. • Given that the software technical risk cannot be effectively managed , risk reduction is...Test and Evaluations and Logistics fields. He earned a Master of Science degree in Systems Acquisition Management (with Distinction) from the Naval

  4. Uninhabited Traffic Management System Evaluator (UTME) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The key innovation of this effort is the development of an Uninhabited Aerial System (UAS) Traffic Manager Evaluator (UTME) specifically targeted at evaluating...

  5. A dynamic human health risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Umesh; Singh, Gurmit; Pant, A B

    2012-05-01

    An online human health risk assessment system (OHHRAS) has been designed and developed in the form of a prototype database-driven system and made available for the population of India through a website - www.healthriskindia.in. OHHRAS provide the three utilities, that is, health survey, health status, and bio-calculators. The first utility health survey is functional on the basis of database being developed dynamically and gives the desired output to the user on the basis of input criteria entered into the system; the second utility health status is providing the output on the basis of dynamic questionnaire and ticked (selected) answers and generates the health status reports based on multiple matches set as per advise of medical experts and the third utility bio-calculators are very useful for the scientists/researchers as online statistical analysis tool that gives more accuracy and save the time of user. The whole system and database-driven website has been designed and developed by using the software (mainly are PHP, My-SQL, Deamweaver, C++ etc.) and made available publically through a database-driven website (www.healthriskindia.in), which are very useful for researchers, academia, students, and general masses of all sectors.

  6. Evaluating and mitigating fracture risk in established rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Matthew B; Saag, Kenneth G

    2015-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis are predisposed to systemic bone loss, and they are at an increased risk of fractures. Although there are similarities in the patient demographics between rheumatoid arthritis patients and the general population of osteoporosis patients, there are factors, particularly the use of glucocorticoids, which are specific to rheumatoid arthritis. These factors can lead to an increased risk of bone loss and fracture. Given that fractures are often very debilitating, especially in elderly patients, it is of paramount importance for the practicing rheumatologist to be aware of ways to reduce the risk of fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review discusses currently available modalities for fracture risk assessment as well as pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions available to treat and prevent bone loss in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  7. Satellite power system (SPS) initial insurance evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-09-01

    The beginning of a process to educate the insurance industry about the Satellite Power System is reported. The report is divided into three sections. In the first section a general history describes how space risks are being insured today. This is followed by an attempt to identify the major risks inherent to the SPS. The final section presents a general projection of insurance market reactions to the Satellite Power System.

  8. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example.

  9. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  10. Impact Of Exogenous And Endogenous Risks On Systemic Risk In Indonesian Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfiana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Weaknesses of the Banking Pressure Index and Financial Stability Index as an early detection system were not to involve contagion and bank run. This study aimed at determining impacts of endogenous and exogenous risks on systemic risks. It was a descriptive verificatory study using monthly secondary data of 2011-2014 and multiple regressions. Utilizing credit risk liquidity risk market risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run inflation BI rate exchange rate and systemic risk variables of the 2011-2014 period it turned out that only endogenous risks of contagion and bank run variables impacted on systemic risk in Indonesian banking. The result showed that after the test of classical linear regression assumption credit risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run and inflation variables simultaneously impacted on systemic risk and contributed to the movement of systemic risk. However our findings suggested that only contagion CONT bank run BR and inflation INF variables significantly impacted on systemic risk in a positive direction.

  11. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  12. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  13. PERIODONTAL INFECTION AS A POTENTIAL RISK FACTOR FOR SYSTEMIC DISEASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumintarti Sumintarti

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Oral infection can have an adverse effect on other organs of the body. Oral infections, especially periodontitis, may affect the course and pathogenesis of a number of systemic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, pre-term low birth weight infant and respiratory disease. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the current status of oral infection especially periodontitis as a potential risk factor of systemic diseases. Three main pathways linking oral infection to secondary systemic effects have been proposed: metastatic infection, metastatic injury and metastatic inflammation. Periodontitis can cause bacteria to enter the blood stream and activate immune cells. These activated cells produce inflammatory cytokines that have a destructive effect throughout the entire body. Therefore, periodontitis as a major oral infection may affect the host’s susceptibility to systemic disease.

  14. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  15. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  16. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  17. Research on the Model of Household Credit Risk Evaluation of Rural Microfinance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Since rural microfinance is a credit which grants loans without collateral and guarantees to farmers,it is considerably important to evaluate and control the household credit risk.Through establishing the evaluation index system and then using catastrophe progression theory,three common types of catastrophe system and the normalization formula,we get the comprehensive evaluation.Finally,we take the empirical test and the result shows that this method is simpler and more objective which can be used by the credit cooperatives to decide whether to authorize the loans.

  18. Evaluation of Video Teleconference Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-02-01

    Utility Analysis ( MAUA ). MAUA techniques are designed for the evaluation of fixed options that can be characterized as having values on each of a number...uncertainty or disagreement about weights. 6. Draw conclusions--decision implications. 56 4.3 Model and Results A MAUA model was developed to evaluate four...Discussion - The results of the MAUA model indicate that video teleconferencing can offer a cost- effective solution to problems of scheduling meetings

  19. The use of intelligent systems for risk management in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana A. Gushchina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The article identifies the main risks of a software project, examines the use of different types of intelligent systems in the risk management process for software projects, discusses the basic methods used for process estimation and forecasting in the field of software engineering, identifies currently used empty expert systems, software systems for analysis and risk management of software projects. Materials and Methods: The author describes the peculiarities of risk management in the field of software engineering with involvement of intelligent systems. The intelligent techniques allow solving the control task with expert precision without the involvement of human experts. Results: The result of this work: – identification of the key risks of a software project (tax, legal, financial and commercial risks, IT risks, personnel risks, risks related to competitors, suppliers, marketing and demand and market; – investigation of the current, applied to risk management of software system projects, artificial intelligence, particularly expert systems and software tools for evaluation of the process results; – identification of the most popular empty expert systems (Clips, G2 and Leonardo and software products of the analysis of large databases (Orange, Weka, Rattle GUI, Apache Mahout, SCaViS, RapidMiner, Databionic ESOM Tools, ELKI, KNIME, Pandas and UIMA; – consideration of the cluster, correlation, regression, factor and dispersion analysis methods for the estimation and prediction of the processes of software engineering. Discussion and Conclusions: The results show the feasibility of the application of various intelligent systems in the risk management process. The analysis of methods of evaluating risks and the tendency of their application in the modern systems of intellectual analysis can serve as a start point for creating a unified system of risk management for software projects of medium and high complexity with a

  20. A Knowledge-based Stampability Evaluation System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The aim, characteristics and requirements of stampability evaluation are identified.As sam-pability evaluation is highly skill-intensive and requires a wide variety of design expertise and knowledge, a knowledge based system is proposed for implementing the stampability evaluation.The stampability eval uation knowledge representation,and processing phases are illustrated. A case study demonstrates the feasibility of the knowledge based approach to stampability evalu-ation.

  1. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan S. Bleeker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera.

  2. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  3. [Integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters affecting longyan yield in Fujian Province, East China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jia-Jin; Wang, Jia-Yi; Li, Li-Chun; Lin, Jing; Yang, Kai; Ma, Zhi-Guo; Xu, Zong-Huan

    2012-03-01

    In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters on the Longyan production in Fujian Province was constructed, based on the analysis of the major environmental factors affecting the Longyan growth and yield, and from the viewpoints of potential hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Longyan growth regions in the Province. In addition, an integrated evaluation model of multiple disasters was established to evaluate the risks of the major agro-meteorological disasters affecting the Longyan yield, based on the yearly meteorological data, Longyan planting area and yield, and other socio-economic data in Longyan growth region in Fujian, and by using the integral weight of risk indices determined by AHP and entropy weight coefficient methods. In the Province, the Longyan growth regions with light integrated risk of multiple disasters were distributed in the coastal counties (except Dongshan County) with low elevation south of Changle, the regions with severe and more severe integrated risk were mainly in Zhangping of Longyan, Dongshan, Pinghe, Nanjin, and Hua' an of Zhangzhou, Yongchun and Anxi of Quanzhou, north mountainous areas of Putian and Xianyou, Minqing, Minhou, Luoyuan, and mountainous areas of Fuzhou, and Fuan, Xiapu, and mountainous areas of Ninde, among which, the regions with severe integrated risk were in Dongshan, Zhangping, and other mountainous areas with high altitudes, and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the Province.

  4. [Microscopic hematuria : Reasonable and risk-adapted diagnostic evaluation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löbig, N; Wezel, F; Martini, T; Schröppel, B; Bolenz, C

    2017-06-22

    Microscopic hematuria that is not explained by an obvious underlying condition is a frequent and often an incidental finding that commonly triggers urological or nephrological evaluation. Potential underlying conditions range from benign to severe malignant diseases of the kidneys and urinary tract. A nonsystematic literature search was performed, focusing on potential urological and nephrological causes of hematuria. National and international guidelines were considered and diagnostic as well as follow-up strategies are discussed. We provide a recommendation for practices in the clinical evaluation of hematuria. The overall prevalence for microscopic hematuria is estimated at approximately 2%, whereas risk populations show an increase to around 30%. In 13-35% of patients presenting with microscopic hematuria, a medical or surgical intervention is required. Malignant tumors of the kidneys or urinary tract can be diagnosed in 2.6-4% of all patients and in up to 25.8% of at-risk populations. "Idiopathic microscopic hematuria" without an obvious underlying medical condition accounts for approximately 80% of patients with asymptomatic hematuria. After exclusion of nephrological diseases, standard diagnostic procedures by means of medical history, physical and laboratory examination as well as ultrasound of the kidneys and the urinary tract should be performed. In the presence of risk factors, an extended diagnostic work-up using cystoscopy, urinary cytology, and cross-sectional imaging of the upper urinary tract is indicated. Evidence-based strategies of a risk-adapted diagnostic evaluation for microscopic hematuria are not available. The development of reliable clinical and molecular markers offers great potential for the identification of patients at higher risk for harboring severe diseases.

  5. Kennedy space center cardiovascular disease risk reduction program evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine S Calderon

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Kristine S Calderon1, Charles Smallwood1, David A Tipton21Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health Services, Comprehensive Health Services, Inc., Kennedy Space Center, Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA; 2Aerospace Medicine and Occupational Health Branch, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Kennedy Space Center, FL, USAAbstract: This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC Cardiovascular Disease (CVD Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL and low density lipoprotein (LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03; diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002; total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001 as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04. Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05; and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001. These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information

  6. Evaluation of high-risk living kidney donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangdhanakanond, Kawin; Mandelbrot, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Careful evaluation of potential living kidney donors is crucial to assure the well being of the donors, especially because they do not gain any direct medical benefit from donation. This process also helps assess the quality and safety of the organs donated to the recipients. While all programs share these goals, donor selection criteria vary significantly among U.S. transplant centers. In part, this is due to the limited data that exists as to long-term outcomes among donors who are medically complex, or at higher risk for complications, such as those with hypertension, obesity, or lower kidney function. This article reviews available evidence regarding outcomes after living donation and current trends in U.S. practices, and seeks to provide practical guidance in evaluating high-risk potential living kidney donors.

  7. Web-based Projects Evaluation Management System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Al-Zoubi

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This project designs a Web-based evaluation management system for the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS. Problem statement: The Msc students in College of Arts and Sciences (CAS in applied sciences had to take their final project as a project paper in order to fulfill the requirements of their programs and be able to graduate. The final project was evaluated in two parts; first part is representing 40% of the total mark and evaluated by evaluators. Second part was representing 60% of the total mark and evaluated by the student's supervisor. These evaluation were done manually. Both the evaluators and supervisors had to fill in the evaluation forms manually and submit them to the office. Approach: The design research methodology or sometimes called "improvement research" contained the major steps: Awareness the problem, suggestion, development, evaluation and conclusion. Results: Both evaluators and supervisors can fill in the evaluation forms through the Internet. Bring the advantage of saving time and resources over traditional paper and pencil scan sheet method. For enhancing the performance of current final project evaluation process in College of Arts and Sciences (CAS this study proposed a web based evaluation management system to replace the current paper forms used by the evaluators and supervisors. Conclusion: Implementing this system will enable the evaluation results to be entered, presume and retrieved anytime anywhere.

  8. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: Systems science approach to change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo P Janecka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundMedicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases.There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One- it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two- it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Material / MethodPublic domain records of change, during the last fifty years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results / Conclusions Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems’ relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems.From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.

  9. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  10. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-04-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  11. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with First Episode Febrile Seizure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharawat, Indar Kumar; Singh, Jitender; Dawman, Lesa; Singh, Amitabh

    2016-05-01

    Febrile seizure (FS) is the single most common type of seizure seen in children between 6 months to 5 years of age. The purpose of our study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures, which would help in the better management and preventive measures in children at risk for FS episodes. To evaluate the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures in Indian children. This was a hospital based, case control study. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first FS episode in children. Seventy (70) children between age 6 months to 5 years with their first episode of FS were compared with 70 children with fever but without seizures based on various risk factors. The mean age was 24.90±16.11 months in cases and 26.34±16.93 months in controls. Male: female ratio was 2:1. A positive family history was found in 31.4% of first degree and 11.4% in second degree relatives. Mean maximum temperature was 102.06±1.1°F and URI (upper respiratory infection) was most common cause of fever. Antenatal complication was significantly higher in the case group. RBC (Red Blood Cells) indices like lower mean haemoglobin, MCV (Mean Corpuscular Volume), MCH (Mean Corpuscular Haemoglobin concentration) and higher RDW (Red Cell Distribution Width) values were seen in patients. Serum sodium, Serum calcium and random blood sugar values of the cases were significantly lower than those of controls (pfebrile seizures, peak body temperature, underlying cause of fever, antenatal complications, low serum calcium, sodium, blood sugar and microcytic hypochromic anaemia are the risk factors associated with the occurrence of first episode of febrile seizure and, thus, preventive measures in removing these risk factors could lead to a decrease in incidence of FS.

  12. Modelling and Prioritization of System Risks in Early Project Phases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza

    2016-01-01

    The rising complexity of product and systems demands further attention to potential Risks. While researchers explore tools and methods to identify system risk, its prioritization remains a challenging task in a multistakeholder environment. Hazard is the source of risk and causes harm. Harm may have

  13. Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gang, Chen

    IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

  14. Modular system design and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, Mark Sh

    2015-01-01

    This book examines seven key combinatorial engineering frameworks (composite schemes consisting of algorithms and/or interactive procedures) for hierarchical modular (composite) systems. These frameworks are based on combinatorial optimization problems (e.g., knapsack problem, multiple choice problem, assignment problem, morphological clique problem), with the author’s version of morphological design approach – Hierarchical Morphological Multicritieria Design (HMMD) – providing a conceptual lens with which to elucidate the examples discussed. This approach is based on ordinal estimates of design alternatives for systems parts/components, however, the book also puts forward an original version of HMMD that is based on new interval multiset estimates for the design alternatives with special attention paid to the aggregation of modular solutions (system versions). The second part of ‘Modular System Design and Evaluation’ provides ten information technology case studies that enriches understanding of th...

  15. Discussions on the Construction of Financial Risk Evaluation Index System at Vocational Colleges%高职院校财务风险评价指标体系构建的探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    耿学斌

    2012-01-01

    随着高等教育逐年扩招,我国的高等职业教育得到了迅猛的发展,高职院校财务管理工作由无风险管理转变为风险管理,因此如何客观的评价和科学的控制财务风险成为当下高职院校讨论的焦点问题。本文通过阐述财务风险评价指标体系构建的目的与原则,侧重于选取并分析包括负债比率、预算执行比率在内的四类13个指标,反映高职院校的偿债能力、运行能力、盈利能力、发展能力。%With the rapid development of China's higher vocational education, financial management at vocational colleges is verifying from non-risk to risk management. Therefore, how to objectively evaluate and scientifically control the financial risk has been the focus matter at the colleges. This paper discusses the construction aims and rules of the evaluation index to reflect these colleges' management at solvency, operation, profitability and development capacity, focusing on selecting and analyzing the 4 classes of 13 indicators such as gearing ratio and budget execution ratio.

  16. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  17. Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

    2016-05-01

    In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.

  18. Life insurance risk assessment using a fuzzy logic expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreno, Luis A.; Steel, Roy A.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, we present a knowledge based system that combines fuzzy processing with rule-based processing to form an improved decision aid for evaluating risk for life insurance. This application illustrates the use of FuzzyCLIPS to build a knowledge based decision support system possessing fuzzy components to improve user interactions and KBS performance. The results employing FuzzyCLIPS are compared with the results obtained from the solution of the problem using traditional numerical equations. The design of the fuzzy solution consists of a CLIPS rule-based system for some factors combined with fuzzy logic rules for others. This paper describes the problem, proposes a solution, presents the results, and provides a sample output of the software product.

  19. Environmental and social risk evaluation of overseas investment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruilian; Andam, Francis; Shi, Guoqing

    2017-06-01

    Along with the further implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative and the promotion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the construction of the CPEC will likely face challenges owing to differences between China and Pakistan in politics, economics, culture, religion, language, customs, environmental management systems, environmental protection laws, social management systems, and social management regulations. To address potential environmental and social risks associated with Chinese enterprises as they invest in the CPEC region, this paper examines previous studies addressing topics such as the environmental and social safeguards of international institutions and Pakistan's domestic environmental and social management requirements. We then systematically identify the environmental and social risk factors involved in CPEC construction, which cover risks regarding water, air, soil, noise, biodiversity, politics, economics, culture, technology, and individuals. By establishing and calculating these risks and using a multi-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we found that noise and individual risks belong to a medium risk category, while others belong to a higher risk category. In view of these risks, the Chinese government must create a friendly and peaceful environment for Chinese enterprises to invest in the CPEC region, and Chinese enterprises must adopt a development strategy of strength and capacity building and establish enterprises capable of addressing environmental and social issues during the investment process. All stakeholders must understand that if no determined and diligent steps are taken, CPEC construction might be doomed for failure from the start.

  20. Evaluation Methods for Intelligent Tutoring Systems Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greer, Jim; Mark, Mary

    2016-01-01

    The 1993 paper in "IJAIED" on evaluation methods for Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) still holds up well today. Basic evaluation techniques described in that paper remain in use. Approaches such as kappa scores, simulated learners and learning curves are refinements on past evaluation techniques. New approaches have also arisen, in…

  1. Complex Evaluation of Hierarchically-Network Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Polishchuk, Dmytro; Yadzhak, Mykhailo

    2016-01-01

    Methods of complex evaluation based on local, forecasting, aggregated, and interactive evaluation of the state, function quality, and interaction of complex system's objects on the all hierarchical levels is proposed. Examples of analysis of the structural elements of railway transport system are used for illustration of efficiency of proposed approach.

  2. Solar Thermal System Evaluation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyu Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available More than 581 solar thermal systems (STSs, 98 counties, and 47 renewable application demonstration cites in China need to be inspected by the end of 2015. In this study, the baseline for performance and economic evaluation of STSs are presented based on the site test data and related references. An index used to evaluate STSs was selected, and methods to acquire the parameters used to calculate the related index were set. The requirements for sensors for testing were specified. The evaluation method was applied to three systems and the result shows that the evaluation method is suitable for the evaluation of STSs in China.

  3. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  4. UNIX-based operating systems robustness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yu-Ming

    1996-01-01

    Robust operating systems are required for reliable computing. Techniques for robustness evaluation of operating systems not only enhance the understanding of the reliability of computer systems, but also provide valuable feed- back to system designers. This thesis presents results from robustness evaluation experiments on five UNIX-based operating systems, which include Digital Equipment's OSF/l, Hewlett Packard's HP-UX, Sun Microsystems' Solaris and SunOS, and Silicon Graphics' IRIX. Three sets of experiments were performed. The methodology for evaluation tested (1) the exception handling mechanism, (2) system resource management, and (3) system capacity under high workload stress. An exception generator was used to evaluate the exception handling mechanism of the operating systems. Results included exit status of the exception generator and the system state. Resource management techniques used by individual operating systems were tested using programs designed to usurp system resources such as physical memory and process slots. Finally, the workload stress testing evaluated the effect of the workload on system performance by running a synthetic workload and recording the response time of local and remote user requests. Moderate to severe performance degradations were observed on the systems under stress.

  5. Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

  6. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  7. Risk communication strategy development using the aerospace systems engineering process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, S.; Sklar, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explains the goals and challenges of NASA's risk communication efforts and how the Aerospace Systems Engineering Process (ASEP) was used to map the risk communication strategy used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to achieve these goals.

  8. Geographical information systems (GIS) and risk maps of urinary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Geographical information systems (GIS) and risk maps of urinary schistosomiasis in Ogun State, Nigeria. ... Nigerian Journal of Parasitology ... occurrence of urinary schistosomiasis and population at risk in Ogun State, Nigeria ... Article Metrics.

  9. Miniature-Autopilot Evaluation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamal Ali

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This research describes a Hardware in the Loop Simulator (HILS that was developed to enhance the quality of attitude data received from autopilots. The described system aided in adjusting the contribution of individual IMU sensors and thereby improved the accuracy of IMU data. The HILS system outlined in this research is a gimbaled platform equipped with four stepper motors and two optical shaft encoders. The stepper motors simulated flight, while the shaft encoders reported the platform's exact angular position. Having exact attitude information to compare with IMU data allowed for the filtering of IMU errors. The HILS system was also used as an inertial frame of reference to which IMU data was synchronized.

  10. Preliminary establishment and application of turfgrass disease risk evaluation system%草坪草病害风险性评估体系的初步建立及应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王跃栋; 刘自学; 苏爱莲

    2012-01-01

    In order to find an uniform solution for evaluating the risk of turf diseases, pest risk analysis sys- tem to turf disease was introduced and a model for analyzing the risk level of the pest was developed. Based on the rule of standards for pest measurements (ISPM), fuzzy mathematics theory and characteristics of the turf grass ecosystem, we discussed the criterion of evaluation and calculation measures of the model on the method of AHP and Delphi. In this study, an assessment model, including seventeen evaluation indexes, was established. The estimative equation was R==(P1×P2×P3×P4×P5),Using this model, fivekinds of turfgrass diseases were evaluated. The results showed that the high risk level with the value from 0.6 ~o 0.8 involved three kinds of diseases, such as Rhizoctonia solani,Phythium ultimum and Fusarium spp. The middle risk level with the value from 0.4 to 0.6 involved two kinds of diseases, Puccinia spp. and Drechslera spp. In factual tasks, we should set up strategies of the risk management and make con- crete analysis for concrete problems according to different disease risk levels.%为探索建立统一的草坪草病害风险性评价尺度,本研究引入有害生物风险分析(Pest Risk Analysis)理论。基于有害生物风险分析的规定程序,结合草坪绿地生态系统特点及模糊数学理论,利用德尔菲法及层次分析法,探讨了草坪绿地病害风险分析体系的建立、评价指标和评价值的计算方法。初步建立了三层次17个评价指标的综合评价模型R=(P1×P2×P3×P4×P5)~(1/5),并运用此模型评价了草坪草5种主要病害的风险性危害值。结果表明,草坪草褐斑病(Rhizoctonia solani)、腐霉病(Phythium ultimum)和镰刀菌枯萎病(Fusariumspp.)3种病害的风险性危害值在0.6~0.8,风险级别为高风险;草坪草锈病(Pucciniaspp.)和德氏霉叶枯病(Drechsleraspp.)2种病害的风险性危害值在0.4~0.6,

  11. Development of a Sound Quality Evaluation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Preben; Thomsen, Carsten; Lee, Sanjil

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the development of the first version of the Sound Quality Evaluation System. The purpose of the system is to predict the subjective sound quality of home theater systems from objective measurements. 16 home theater systems were measured in an anechoic room. Several metrics...... expected to correlate w ith the subjective quality were proposed and tested. A model for the sound quality was created by mapping the subjective evaluations of the Home Theater System s with the metrics calculated for each system. Correlation between subjective listening test and the prediction is presente...

  12. Administrative law risks of the governmental and municipal procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyuzhikov Sergey, A.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the administrative law risks of the Russian system of public procurement. The authors analyze the foregoing risks in the view of the correlation of risk situations, risk actions (omission and administrative law prohibitions. The authors are considering problems of the subject and some other characteristics essential to the administrative offenses in terms of the most systemic risk in this sphere – an information risk. The materials on law practice open to general use generated in more than 25 entities of the Russian Federation were used in the paper while preparing.

  13. 国际总承包电力工程的风险识别与评价指标体系%Risk Identification and Evaluation Index System of International Contracting Power Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王若竹; 周子毓; 饶金涛

    2012-01-01

    Compare with the domestic construction projects, the risk of international contracting electric power construction projects have more uncertain factors and risk. There is an important significance for investors, en- gineering owner and the contractor to understand the risks of projects risks and make the right decisions. Based on the full analysis to the domestic and overseas electric power construction projects and the characteristics of the projects of general contracting mode, we establish the risk assessment index system. We analyze the risks from political, economic, natural, social, contract, construction, technology, management, information and other aspects, and combine with the actual cases.%国际总承包电力建设项目的风险与国内建设项目相比不确定因素多,风险大。这类研究对于投资商、工程业主和承包商等了解项目存在的风险,做出正确决策具有重要意义。在充分分析了境内境外电力建设项目和总承包模式项目的特点的基础上,建立了风险评价指标体系,从政治、经济、自然、社会、合同、施工、技术、管理、信息等多方面的风险进行了分析,并结合实际案例分析了存在的风险。

  14. One approach for evaluating the Distributed Computing Design System (DCDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, J. T.

    1985-01-01

    The Distributed Computer Design System (DCDS) provides an integrated environment to support the life cycle of developing real-time distributed computing systems. The primary focus of DCDS is to significantly increase system reliability and software development productivity, and to minimize schedule and cost risk. DCDS consists of integrated methodologies, languages, and tools to support the life cycle of developing distributed software and systems. Smooth and well-defined transistions from phase to phase, language to language, and tool to tool provide a unique and unified environment. An approach to evaluating DCDS highlights its benefits.

  15. Comparative Evaluation of Three Commercial Systems for Detection of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus in Cervical and Vaginal ThinPrep PreservCyt Samples and Correlation with Biopsy Results

    OpenAIRE

    Binnicker, M. J.; Pritt, B. S.; Duresko, B. J.; Espy, M J; Grys, T. E.; Zarka, M. A.; Kerr, S. E.; Henry, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) is the etiologic agent of more than 99% of all cervical cancers worldwide, with 14 genotypes being considered oncogenic or “high risk” because of their association with severe dysplasia and cervical carcinoma. Among these 14 high-risk types, HPV-16 and -18 account for approximately 70% of cervical cancers. The aim of this study was to evaluate three FDA-approved HPV nucleic acid-based tests for the ability to predict high-grade cervical intraepithelial neopl...

  16. Flexible manufacturing system (FMS) evaluation. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Setter, D.L.

    1993-02-01

    The applicability of the flexible manufacturing system (FMS) concept to automate machining and inspecting a family of stainless steel and aluminum hardware for electrical components has been evaluated. FMS was found to be appropriate and justifiable and a project was initiated to purchase and implement an FMS system. System specifications and procurement methodologies were developed that resulted in a conventional competitive bid procurement A proposal evaluation technique was developed consisting of 40% price, 40% technical compliance, and 20% supplier management capabilities.

  17. Ergonomic evaluation of winegrape trellis systems pruning operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, A E; Fathallah, F A; Miles, J A; Meyers, J M; Faucett, J; Janowitz, I; Garcia, E G

    2006-02-01

    The winegrape industry suffers from high incidence rates of work-related musculoskeletal disorders. Pruning of dormant vines is a significant task, requiring long periods of highly repetitive and physically demanding work. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively evaluate five commonly used winegrape trellis systems with regard to the risk of developing musculoskeletal injuries to the wrist and lower back while pruning. Eleven subjects participated in this study. Subjects performed a simulated pruning task as wrist and trunk postures were gathered using electrogoniometers. The results showed significant postural differences among the trellis systems. Compared to the other systems, the VSP was determined to be the optimal system in terms of decreasing relative MSD risk. These results will assist vineyards in the selection process of suitable trellis systems that will include the worker health aspect in conjunction with other trellis-related parameters such as grape quality and productivity.

  18. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PENSION FUNDS WITH FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SERDAR KORUKOĞLU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial rating and ranking firms often use linguistic instead of numerical values. When input data are mostly qualitative and are based on subjective knowledge of experts, the Fuzzy Set Theory provides a solid mathematical model to represent and handle these data. The aim of this study is developing a fuzzy expert model to evaluate the performance of the pension funds by using their risk and return values. The method is used for evaluating the performance of the randomly selected of twenty seven Turkish pension funds. The obtained results proved that the fuzzy expert system is appropriate and consistent for performance evaluation.

  19. The Evaluation of Automated Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    enable mission focused planning. This technology package was named, Distributed Analysis and Visualization Infrastructure for C4I, Da Vinci . Viecore...commanders and staffs to focus on the higher-level concepts.29 Originally, Viecore developed the Da Vinci technology as a self-contained application...the Division Capstone Exercise (DCX). The Da Vinci technology using the new operating system was called CAPES. The CAPES Reference Manual

  20. Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrogeological risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazia Di Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1 extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2 outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels. The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

  1. Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

  2. Flood risk assessment of fresh water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

    2017-04-01

    Flooding is a common hazard causing damages to people, buildings and infrastructures. Often located in low-lying areas or nearby rivers, water utilities are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Water and debris can inundate the facility, thereby damaging equipment and causing power outages. Such impacts can lead to costly repairs, disruptions of service, hazardous situations for personnel and public health advisories. While flood damage evaluation to buildings and their contents is becoming increasingly available, the quantification of impact on critical infrastructures is less common. In this work, we present the flood risk assessment of a fresh water supply system considering the hazard of a riverine flooding and exposure and vulnerability of the system components (i.e. pipes, junctions, lifting stations etc.). The evaluation of flood impact on the aqueduct network is carried out for flood scenarios with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to determine their residual functionality. Above a selected threshold, the affected elements are considered as failed. The water distribution piping system is modelled through a model based on EPANET designed so as to implement Pressure-Driven Demand (PDD), which is more appropriate when modelling water distribution networks with a high number of offline nodes. Results of piping system model affected by the flood are then compared in a QGIS environment with flood depth to identify the location of service outages and potential risk of contamination. The application to the water supply system of the city of Florence (Italy), serving approximately 385000 inhabitants through 900 km of piping is presented and discussed.

  3. Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Urban wastewater systems should be evaluated and analysed from an integrated point of view, taking all parts of the system, that is sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving waters into consideration. Risk and parameter uncertainties are aspects that hardly ever have been addressed i...

  4. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  5. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  6. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc [INERIS, Parc Technologique Alata BP2 - 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Bomfim, Joao A S, E-mail: dominique.fleury@ineris.fr [Centro Ricerche Plast-optica (CRP), Via Jacopo Linussio 1 - 33020 Amaro (Italy)

    2011-07-06

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  7. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  8. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  9. Evaluation of radiation risk and work practices during cerebral interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingstone, Roshan S; Raghuram, L; Korah, Ipeson P; Raj, D Victor [Department of Radiodiagnosis, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004 (India)

    2003-09-01

    This study was intended to evaluate radiation risk to patients during cerebral interventions and the contribution to this risk from work practices. Thirty nine patients undergoing cerebral interventions in a digital subtraction angiography suite were included in this study. Patients who underwent cerebral interventions were categorised into two groups according to the number of cerebral interventions performed on them, and their effective doses were calculated. The effective dose for patients undergoing a single cerebral intervention (group A) varied from 1.55 to 15.9 mSv and for multiple cerebral interventions (group B) varied from 16.52 to 43.52 mSv. Two patients who underwent multiple cerebral interventions (group B) had alopecia of the irradiated scalp.

  10. Determining Risk - How to Evaluate the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.

    2011-12-01

    As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high

  11. Crack Risk Evaluation of Early Age Concrete Based on the Distributed Optical Fiber Temperature Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nannan Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cracks often appear in concrete arch dams, due to the thermal stress and low tensile strength of early age concrete. There are three commonly used temperature controlling measures: controlling the casting temperature, burying cooling pipe, and protecting the surface. However, because of the difficulty to obtain accurate temperature and thermal stress field of the concrete, the rationality and economy of these measures are not assessed validly before and after construction. In this paper, a crack risk evaluation system for early age concrete is established, including distributed optical fiber temperature sensing (DTS, prediction of temperature and stress fields, and crack risk evaluation. Based on the DTS temperature data, the back-analysis method is applied to retrieve the thermal parameters of concrete. Then, the temperature and thermal stress of early age concrete are predicted using the reversed thermal parameters, as well as the laboratory test parameters. Finally, under the proposed cracking risk evaluation principle, the cracking risk level of each concrete block is given; the preliminary and later temperature controlling measures were recommended, respectively. The application of the proposed system in Xiluodu super high arch dam shows that this system works effectively for preventing cracks of early age concrete.

  12. Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

  13. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  14. Assessment of Performance and Risk in the Banking System in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica IOAN

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The banking system is characterized by multiple dimensions of financial risks that affect performance. Both credit institutions and financial institutions need to improve their risk management understanding and practice in order to successfully manage their entire business. Changes in the financial and institutional sphere have contributed to an increase in financial instability, generating consequences at two different levels: firstly, it has led to a rise in credit risk, and secondly it has raised concerns in the area of banking risk management through the emergence and expansion of performing techniques of risk management, evaluation and protection.

  15. 75 FR 60749 - Policy on Payment System Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... its PSR policy designed to improve intraday liquidity management and payment flows for the banking... Policy on Payment System Risk AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ACTION: Notice... date of March 24, 2011, for revisions to part II of its Policy on Payment System Risk (PSR)....

  16. Evaluation of Systematic Risk in the Insurance System:An International Perspective%保险体系的系统风险相关性评价:一个国际视角

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵桂芹; 吴洪

    2012-01-01

    Does insurance system pose systemic risk? Based on the present situation and the future development trends of international insurance industry, this paper analyzed the systematical importance of the insurance industry and systematical relativity of mainstream insurance business, and assessed the possibility of insurance system posing systematic risks from macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. We found out that, though the possibility that insurance system caused systematic risk was slim currently, the possibility was increasing gradually with further business innovation of insurers. The insurers' non-core business, such as short-term funding and off- balance sheet derivative transactions had considerable possibility to pose systematic risks. Finally, we proposed some suggestions about the macro-prudent supervision on systematic risks in the Chinese insurance industry.%保险体系会引发系统性风险吗?本文从国际保险业发展的现实状况和未来发展趋势出发,通过分析保险行业的系统重要性和保险公司主要业务活动的系统风险相关性,从宏观层面和微观层面两个角度,判断保险体系引发系统性风险的可能性。我们发现,总体上当前保险业引发系统性风险的可能性不大;但随着保险公司业务创新的进一步推进,保险业引发系统性风险的可能性在逐渐增加,其中保险公司的短期融资和表外衍生品交易业务,是引发系统性风险可能性较大的业务。我们还对中国保险业系统性风险的宏观审慎监管提出了政策建议。

  17. An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M., E-mail: bmdantas@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: {sup 210}Po; {sup 226}Ra and {sup 241}Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like {sup 137}Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

  18. How to Evaluate Integrated Library Automation Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, James R.; Slach, June E.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes methodology used in compiling a list of candidate integrated library automation systems at a corporate technical library. Priorities for automation, identification of candidate systems, the filtering process, information for suppliers, software and hardware considerations, on-site evaluations, and final system selection are…

  19. Earth orbital teleoperator visual system evaluation program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, N. L., Jr.; Kirkpatrick, M., III; Frederick, P. N.; Malone, T. B.

    1975-01-01

    Empirical tests of range estimation accuracy and resolution, via television, under monoptic and steroptic viewing conditions are discussed. Test data are used to derive man machine interface requirements and make design decisions for an orbital remote manipulator system. Remote manipulator system visual tasks are given and the effects of system parameters of these tasks are evaluated.

  20. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  1. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  2. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites. The report provides an overview of an approach for assessing risk to ...

  3. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites. The report provides an overview of an approach for assessing risk to ...

  4. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and

  5. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and b

  6. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  7. Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.

  8. Computer simulation of microgravity long-term effects and risk evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate possible long-term effects of microgravity on the human pulmonary function. It is also studied the efficacy of long-term regular exercise on relevant cardiovascular parameters when the human body is also exposed to microgravity. Little is known today about what long-term effects microgravity may cause on pulmonary function. It does not exist a complete explanation of the possible risks involved, although some experiments are under way on the ISS in order to evaluate them. Computer simulations are an important tool which may be used to predict and analyse these possible effects, and compare them with in-flight experiments. We based our study on a previous computer model (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects) which was developed in our laboratory and validated with the available data, focusing on the cardiovascular parameters affected by changes in gravity exposure. In this previous work we simulated part of the cardiovascular systems and we applied it to evaluate risks of blood-forming organs malfunction. NELME is based on an electrical-like control system model of the physiological changes, that may occur when gravity changes are applied. The computer implementation has a modular architecture. Hence, different output parameters, potential effects, organs and countermeasures can be easily implemented and evaluated. In this work we added a module to the system to analyse the pulmonary function with a gravity input parameter, as well as exposure time. We then conducted a battery of simulations when different values of g are applied for long-term exposures. We found no significant evidence of changes and no risks were foreseen. We also carried out an EVA simulation as a perturbation in the system (intense exercise, changes in breathed air) and studied the acute response. This is of great importance as current mission requirements do not allow data collection immediately following real EVAs

  9. Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the importance of Risk Informed Design (RID) as an important feature of the systems engineering process. RID is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity such as mass, volume, cost or power. It also reviews Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as it is used in the product life cycle in the development of NASA's Constellation Program.

  10. Application of Risk Index to Risk-Based Decision-Making in Vessel Traffic Service System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Guo-ping; FAN Yao-tian

    2007-01-01

    The applications of risk index to risk estimation, risk acceptability, and cost-benefit analysis for planning vessel traffic service (VTS) system were analyzed. An example of Wuhan Port shows that its application is easily implemented and can be helpful in a comprehensive and scientific decision-making. Especially aiming to the difficult problems with respect to risk prediction, risk acceptability and cost-benefit assessment, this article put forward some new solutions based on risk-index, such as the trendline estimation, ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) matrix and weighted cost-benefit analysis, with a fairly good operability and comparability.

  11. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  12. Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Computer and Game Science, Joongbu University, Geumsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

  13. Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinsoo Shin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

  14. Local-Rapid Evaluation of Atmospheric Conditions (L-REAC (trademark)) System, Volume 4 (System Evaluation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    first responder s operational decision aid called the Local-Rapid Evaluation of Atmospheric Conditions (L-REAC ) System . As part of the technology transfer process, a detailed evaluation of the L-REAC System was conducted by volunteer and professional emergency first responders. This report documents the evaluation process, results and recommendations. In short, all evaluators independently stated that they would recommend the L-REAC System for

  15. Managing the Taiwan kindergarten evaluation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin, Hsiu Fen

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to explore the content of Taiwan’s kindergarten accreditation system and its current status, and set forth conclusions and recommendations for future references by policy-making authorities in kindergarten education. Using the documentary analysis method, results show that current evaluation system should practice more transparency in its administration. Furthermore, managers of such system should be encouraged to consider other countries’ kindergarten accreditation systems for references.

  16. Evaluation of Risk Factors Related to Recidivism Among Sentenced Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinem Yıldız

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is taking the place of dangerousness in recent criminal research. Detection of static and dynamic risk factors related and/or interacting to recidivism in accordance with personality characteristics and crime types may help crime prevention strategies to improve. Out of all participants 35% (n=41 are sentenced for manslaughter/physical injury, 35% (n=41 sexual crime and 30% (n=35 theft. The mean age of the participants is 33.81 (sd=9-12 years. During the interview, a questionnaire which is prepared by the researcher by reviewing the literature, Symptom Checklist Short Form, aggression inventory was used. Interviews are conducted face to face by the researcher at the relevant correctional facilities with the permissions of Ministry of Justice and ethical committee. Recidivism is found related to having a period far away from nuclear family before age 18, criminal and drag-alcohol abusing friends, anti-social behaviors; abusing illegal drags, displaying disciplinary problems in prison and during military service. Discussion: Results are evaluated under demographics, relationships in family and close friends, childhood abuse by leaning on current literature. Key words: prevention and control, crime, risk assessment

  17. Audit of psychosocial risk management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    organizations on how to manage risks. Internal and external audits of compliance with the standard are key elements. Auditors should be competent to carry out the task and be familiar with risks of the areas they are auditing. The competences and practice of internal auditors have been studied...... in two Danish municipalities. The results show that auditors have a varied background and a limited knowledge about psychosocial risks. They have difficulties in carrying out audits and the results are mainly influenced by personal preferences....

  18. A Clinical Evaluation System for Anesthesiology Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viets, J. L.; Foster, Scot D.

    1988-01-01

    Baylor College of Medicine's system for evaluating the clinical progress of anesthesiology residents, developed in response to problems of standards, staff cooperation, and student dissatisfaction with evaluation, assesses resident progress in terms of performance levels based on case complexity and degree of staff intervention. (Author/MSE)

  19. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  20. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve.

  1. Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2012-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

  2. Conditions of Agricultural Catastrophe Risks in China and Establishment of Agricultural Risks Protection Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Agricultural risks in our country have been introduced:firstly,disasters are multiple and frequently happened;secondly,widely affected and seriously suffered.Features of risks also are introduced:the first is the agricultural risk unit is large;the second is the agricultural risk is strongly regional;the third is the agricultural risk is universally half revival.The paper discusses the limits of the agricultural risks management,pointing out that in the management systems of agricultural risks,government finance is strongly burdened,compensations on the catastrophe is small in region,low in level.Based on the above analysis,the protection systems of agricultural risks have been constructed:the first is to establish the reassurance systems of agricultural risks;the second is to establish the risk funds of single agricultural item;the third is to transfer the catastrophe risks through stocks;the fourth is to construct multi leveled countermeasures of agricultural risks.

  3. Expanding pedestrian injury risk to the body region level: how to model passive safety systems in pedestrian injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) plays a crucial role in accident research. A common way to evaluate the effectiveness of new systems is to determine the potentials for injury severity reduction. Because injury risk functions describe the probability of an injury of a given severity conditional on a technical accident severity (closing speed, delta V, barrier equivalent speed, etc.), they are predestined for such evaluations. Recent work has stated an approach on how to model the pedestrian injury risk in pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents as a family of functions. This approach gave explicit and easily interpretable formulae for the injury risk conditional on the closing speed of the car. These results are extended to injury risk functions for pedestrian body regions. Starting with a double-checked German In-depth Accident Study (GIDAS) pedestrian-to-car accident data set (N = 444) and a functional-anatomical definition of the body regions, investigations on the influence of specific body regions on the overall injury severity will be presented. As the measure of injury severity, the ISSx, a rescaled version of the well-known Injury Severity Score (ISS), was used. Though traditional ISS is computed by summation of the squares of the 3 most severe injured body regions, ISSx is computed by the summation of the exponentials of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severities of the 3 most severely injured body regions. The exponentials used are scaled to fit the ISS range of values between 0 and 75. Three body regions (head/face/neck, thorax, hip/legs) clearly dominated abdominal and upper extremity injuries; that is, the latter 2 body regions had no influence at all on the overall injury risk over the range of technical accident severities. Thus, the ISSx is well described by use of the injury codes from the same body regions for any pedestrian injury severity. As a mathematical consequence, the ISSx becomes explicitly

  4. Software Supportability Risk Assessment in OT&E (Operational Test and Evaluation): An Evaluation of Risk Methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-08-31

    DISTRIBUTION: UNIMITED) ELC 0 AUUST 31, M94 Wd/A 8 4 496-TR wwvw WW CORPORATION 1801 RANDOLPH ROAD. S.E * ALSUQUERQUE. NEW MEXICO 87106 *(505) 848-5=0...Road, S.E., Albuquerque, New Mexico , 87106, to the Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center, Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico , 87117. This...metrics described in section 3.4 should be reported in a storyboard fashion. This technique would act as a summary of the ri.sk assessment process

  5. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  6. Fuzzy Evaluation of Failure Risk for Filling System of Longshou Mine in Jinchuan Based on FMEA%基于FMEA的金川龙首矿充填系统失效风险模糊评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张钦礼; 王石; 谢盛青

    2012-01-01

    Based on principles of the FMEA (failure modes and effect analysis), the failure risk assessment model of the filling system of Longshou Mine in Jinchuan was established. This thesis employed the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive judgement method. The interaction of subsystems was comprehensively considered, which was analysed qualitatively and quantitatively. Finally, the weak links in the filling system was found. Major findings are as follows: among the three systems of the filling system of Longshou Mine in Jinchuan, the pulping system and the transportation system have a higher failure probability; among the subsystems, the mixing system, the vertical sand tank, the pipeline transportation system (vertical pipe and horizontal pipe) and the filling retaining wall are more likely to fail.%运用FMEA的原理,建立金川龙首矿充填系统失效风险评价模型.引入层次分析法与模糊综合评判方法,综合考虑子系统间的相互作用,并对其对进行定性和定量地分析,最终找到充填系统的薄弱环节.结果表明:在金川龙首矿充填系统的三大系统中,制浆系统与管道输送系统的失效概率较大;在子系统中,搅拌系统、立式砂仓、管道输送系统(竖直管道、水平管道)和充填挡墙更容易失效.

  7. USING STRESS TESTING METHODOLOGY IN EVALUATING BANKING INSTITUTION’S EXPOSURE TO RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan TRENCA; Simona MUTU; Maria-Miruna POCHEA

    2010-01-01

    In order to correctly estimate the unpredictable effects on their transaction portfolios, the banks developed stress testing methods which turned out to be a very important tool in the bank supervision process. Moreover, the supervision authorities started using stress-testing methods for evaluating systemic risk and for determining the adequacy degree of capital in the banking sector. Taking into account the importance of these simulations, the present paper presents methodologies with which...

  8. Technology evaluation for a mobile fall-injury risk assessment instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Leanne M; Chen, Elizabeth S

    2007-10-11

    Falls and associated injuries in the inpatient environment continue to be an unsolved patient safety problem. At New York-Presbyterian Hospital (NYP), an automated fall-injury risk assessment (FIRA) instrument was developed and integrated into the desktop-based clinical information system. The following study focuses on the evaluation criteria for hardware, software, and wireless communication options to study the use of a mobile version of the instrument.

  9. Optimization Alternatives of Information Systems for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia APOSTOL-MAURER

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this article lies on synthesizing the requirements a risk management information system should meet in order to ensure an efficient risk management within a company, but also on presenting the architecture of the information system proposed by the author, from a structural point of view as well as from the background of the data integration alternatives.

  10. Optimization Alternatives of Information Systems for Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Iulia APOSTOL-MAURER

    2008-01-01

    The focus of this article lies on synthesizing the requirements a risk management information system should meet in order to ensure an efficient risk management within a company, but also on presenting the architecture of the information system proposed by the author, from a structural point of view as well as from the background of the data integration alternatives.

  11. Potential enhancements to addressing programmatic risk in the tank waste remediation system (TWRS) program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, A.; Fassbender, L.; Bilyard, G.; Levine, L.

    1996-04-01

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted a Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management methodology development task. The objective of this task was to develop risk management methodology focused on (1) the use of programmatic risk information in making TWRS architecture selection decisions and (2) the identification/evaluation/selection of TWRS risk-handling actions. Methods for incorporating programmatic risk/uncertainty estimates into trade studies are provided for engineers/analysts. Methods for identifying, evaluating, and selecting risk-handling actions are provided for managers. The guidance provided in this report is designed to help decision-makers make difficult judgments. Current approaches to architecture selection decisions and identification/evaluation/selection of risk-handling actions are summarized. Three categories of sources of programmatic risk (parametric, external, and organizational) are examined. Multiple analytical approaches are presented to enhance the current alternative generation and analysis (AGA) and risk-handling procedures. Appendix A describes some commercially available risk management software tools and Appendix B provides a brief introduction to quantification of risk attitudes. The report provides three levels of analysis for enhancing the AGA Procedure: (1) qualitative discussion coupled with estimated uncertainty ranges for scores in the alternatives-by-criteria matrix; (2) formal elicitation of probability distributions for the alternative scores; and (3) a formal, more structured, comprehensive risk analysis. A framework is also presented for using the AGA programmatic risk analysis results in making better decisions. The report also presents two levels of analysis for evaluation and selection of risk-handling actions: (1) qualitative analysis and judgmental rankings of alternative actions, and (2) Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART).

  12. Expected energy production evaluation for photovoltaic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Østergaard, Jacob; Peng, Wang

    2011-01-01

    A photovoltaic (PV) system consists of many solar panels, which are connected in series, parallel or a combination of both. Energy production for the PV system with various configurations is different. In this paper, a methodology is developed to evaluate and analyze the expected energy production...

  13. Practitioner evaluation of a novel online integrated oral health and risk assessment tool: a practice pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, M; Chapple, E; Matthews, R; Chapple, I L C

    2013-08-01

    To report the development and evaluation of an evidence-based, online, patient assessment tool, capable of measuring oral health status, future disease risk and capitation fee guidance. An online integrated oral health and risk assessment tool called DEPPA was developed, incorporating 1) PreViser(™) risk scores for periodontal disease, caries, non-carious tooth surface loss and oral cancer, 2) revised versions of Denplan Excel's Oral Health Score and 3) capitation fee guidance score. DEPPA was piloted by 25 dentists who provided quantitative and qualitative feedback. Six hundred and forty assessments were performed. There was strong agreement on the need for such a tool, that it constituted a comprehensive assessment and supported good patient communication. The validity of the system was perceived as sound and the revised capitation fee guidance broadly welcomed. While some deemed the caries risk scoring algorithm to be too sensitive, the 30% high/very high risk rating is consistent with current rates of active caries in UK adults. A viable online oral health and risk-assessment tool has been developed (DEPPA) that will allow dental teams to measure oral health status, future disease risk and receive ongoing guidance on capitation fee setting. The indications are that DEPPA could be a valuable audit, care planning and patient communication tool.

  14. Dose and risk evaluation in digital mammography using computer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de, E-mail: scorrea@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: emonteiro@nuclear.ufrj.b [Centro Universitario Estadual da Zona Oeste (CCMAT/UEZO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Humberto de Oliveira, E-mail: hbetorj@gmail.co [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro IF/UFRJ, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Magalhaes, Sarah Braga, E-mail: ademir@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.b, E-mail: smagalhaes@nuclear.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

    2010-07-01

    Digital mammography has been introduced in several countries in the last years. The new technology requires new optimising methods considering for instance the increased possibility of changing the absorbed dose, mainly in modern mammographic systems that allow the operator to choose the beam quality by varying the tube voltage, and filter and target materials. In this work, the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used in order to investigate how the average glandular dose vary with tube voltage (23-32 kV) and anode-filter combination (Mo-Mo,Mo-Rh and Rh-Rh) in digital mammographic examinations. Furthermore, the risk of breast cancer incidence attributable to mammography exams was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR) VII Committee Report. The results show that the risk of breast cancer incidence in women younger than 30 years of age tends to decrease significantly using Rh-Rh anode-filter combination and higher tube voltage. For women older than 50 years of age the variation of tube voltage, and anode-filter combination did not influence the risk values considerably. (author)

  15. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  16. Evaluating Pension System Reform in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Garmendia

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article evaluates the reform to the system of pensions in Uruguay through these variables: coverage, fiscal impact, accumulation of funds, yield, and costs associated to the operation of the Administradoras de Fondos de Ahorro Previsional (AFAPS. The reform is evaluated positively, even though elements are identified, that must be considered in the future: to extend the reform to the rest of the system that was not included before, generate the correct structure to regulate and supervise the system, fit the age of retirement to accede to benefits, and offer alternatives for investments of the AFAPS.

  17. Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-09-12

    Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  18. Risk Management of Large RC Structures within Spatial Information System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Jianjun; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2012-01-01

    subject to corrosion and geographical information system based risk modeling concerning large‐scale risk management. The term “risk management” here refers in particular to the process of condition assessment and optimization of the inspection and repair activities. The SIS facilitates the storage......Abstract: The present article addresses the development of a spatial information system (SIS), which aims to facilitate risk management of large‐scale concrete structures. The formulation of the SIS is based on ideas developed in the context of indicator‐based risk modeling for concrete structures...... and handling of all relevant information to the risk management. The probabilistic modeling utilized in the condition assessment takes basis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling philosophy. It facilitates the updating of risks as well as optimizing inspection plans whenever new information about the condition...

  19. Ensuring system security through formal software evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howell, J A; Fuyat, C [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Elvy, M [Marble Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1992-01-01

    With the increasing use of computer systems and networks to process safeguards information in nuclear facilities, the issue of system and data integrity is receiving worldwide attention. Among the many considerations are validation that the software performs as intended and that the information is adequately protected. Such validations are often requested of the Safeguards Systems Group of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. This paper describes our methodology for performing these software evaluations.

  20. Automated Laser Seeker Performance Evaluation System (ALSPES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Randal G.; Robinson, Elisa L.

    1988-01-01

    The Automated Laser Seeker Performance Evaluation System (ALSPES), which supports the Hellfire missile and Copperhead projectile laser seekers, is discussed. The ALSPES capabilities in manual and automatic operation are described, and the ALSPES test hardware is examined, including the computer system, the laser/attenuator, optics systems, seeker test fixture, and the measurement and test equipment. The calibration of laser energy and test signals in ALSPES is considered.

  1. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  2. M/OD Risk Assessment System and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-fu; YU Qing-bo; LIU You-ying; WANG Hui

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment system named meteoroid & orbital debris risk assessment system (MODRAS) developed for assessing risks of the spacecraft under the meteoroid and debris environment (M/OD EM) is presented.The computing resolution of MODRAS has been verified by both the three generic spacecraft geometries of inter agency debris committee (IADC) and similar foreign software such as BUMPER,ESABASE,and MDPANTO.The results show that the system is fit well with the computing results of the foreign software.Typical applications of the system are also presented,including a manned spacecraft and a space shuttle.

  3. Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    in the evaluation and design of urban wastewater systems. In this paper we present and discuss a probabilistic approach for evaluation of the performance of urban wastewater systems. Risk analysis together with the traditional cost-benefit analysis is a special variant of multi-criteria analysis that seeks to find...... the most feasible improvement alternative for an urban wastewater system. The most feasible alternative in this context is the alternative that has the best performance, meaning that the alternative has the lowest sum of costs, benefits and risks. The sum is expressed as the Net Present Cost (NPC). To use...... NPC as a decision variable has the problematic effect, that two alternatives performing completely differently when focusing on environmental cost can have the same NPC. The extreme example is one alternative with high risk and low cost and another with low risk and high cost. In this example it is up...

  4. a Reliability Evaluation System of Association Rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiangping; Feng, Wanshu; Luo, Minghai

    2016-06-01

    In mining association rules, the evaluation of the rules is a highly important work because it directly affects the usability and applicability of the output results of mining. In this paper, the concept of reliability was imported into the association rule evaluation. The reliability of association rules was defined as the accordance degree that reflects the rules of the mining data set. Such degree contains three levels of measurement, namely, accuracy, completeness, and consistency of rules. To show its effectiveness, the "accuracy-completeness-consistency" reliability evaluation system was applied to two extremely different data sets, namely, a basket simulation data set and a multi-source lightning data fusion. Results show that the reliability evaluation system works well in both simulation data set and the actual problem. The three-dimensional reliability evaluation can effectively detect the useless rules to be screened out and add the missing rules thereby improving the reliability of mining results. Furthermore, the proposed reliability evaluation system is applicable to many research fields; using the system in the analysis can facilitate obtainment of more accurate, complete, and consistent association rules.

  5. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors among veterinary ultrasonographers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Elissa; Hansen, Chad; Gilkey, David; Patil, Anuja; Bachand, Annette; Rosecrance, John; Douphrate, David

    2012-01-01

    Between 65% and 91% of human-patient sonographers report musculoskeletal symptoms related to their work activities. Ergonomic risk factors associated with musculoskeletal symptoms and musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) include force, repetition, and awkward postures of the upper extremities. We hypothesized that veterinary sonographers experience similar risk factor exposures as their colleagues in human-patient sonography, and that work-related exposures may lead to similar prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms and disorders. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration and Society of Diagnostic Medical Sonography published MSD prevention guidelines in 2003. Similar guidance for sonographers examining animal patients does not exist. This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms among veterinary sonographers and identify reported risk factors. A 59-item survey questionnaire was administered via email to veterinary specialists likely to perform ultrasound. Musculoskeletal pain related to performing ultrasound exams was reported by 62% of the respondents. Musculoskeletal symptoms were significantly associated with female gender (odds ratio [OR], 4.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.04-10.19), age (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.10), previous work-related trauma (OR, 6.86; 95% CI, 1.71, 27.40), not consistently using a normal height chair (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.19, 5.80), and 15°-45° abduction of shoulder (OR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.11, 4.92) . It was concluded that the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms among veterinary sonographers was similar to that occurring in human-patient sonographers. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

  6. Evaluation of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Golmirzaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD is one of the most common psychiatric disorders among children. The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors for ADHD in children. Method. In this case-control study, 404 children between 4 and 11 years old were selected by cluster sampling method from preschool children (208 patients as cases and 196 controls. All the participants were interviewed by a child and adolescent psychiatrist to survey risk factors of ADHD. Results. Among cases, 59.3% of children were boys and 38.4% were girls, which is different to that in control group with 40.7% boys and 61.6% girls. The chi-square showed statistically significance (P value < 0.0001. The other significant factors by chi-square were fathers' somatic or psychiatric disease (P value < 0.0001, history of trauma and accident during pregnancy (P value = 0.039, abortion proceeds (P value < 0.0001, unintended pregnancy (P value < 0.0001, and history of head trauma (P value < 0.0001. Conclusions. Findings of our study suggest that maternal and paternal adverse events were associated with ADHD symptoms, but breast feeding is a protective factor.

  7. Feature Selection for Bayesian Evaluation of Trauma Death Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Jakaite, L

    2008-01-01

    In the last year more than 70,000 people have been brought to the UK hospitals with serious injuries. Each time a clinician has to urgently take a patient through a screening procedure to make a reliable decision on the trauma treatment. Typically, such procedure comprises around 20 tests; however the condition of a trauma patient remains very difficult to be tested properly. What happens if these tests are ambiguously interpreted, and information about the severity of the injury will come misleading? The mistake in a decision can be fatal: using a mild treatment can put a patient at risk of dying from posttraumatic shock, while using an overtreatment can also cause death. How can we reduce the risk of the death caused by unreliable decisions? It has been shown that probabilistic reasoning, based on the Bayesian methodology of averaging over decision models, allows clinicians to evaluate the uncertainty in decision making. Based on this methodology, in this paper we aim at selecting the most important screeni...

  8. Social risk assessment of large technical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2003-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to engineering advances. Since risk adhering to a technical structure can be determined quantitatively easier and more accurately than before, criteria for decision making are becoming more important. If the structure is in the public domain, and benefits are not felt, the v

  9. Systemic liquidity risk: a European approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    How should financial regulators address problems stemming from liquidity risk? This column argues that the liquidity coverage and net funding ratios proposed for Basel III are economically and politically impractical. It recommends using those ratios as long-term targets while imposing ‘prudential r

  10. Systemic Interbank Network Risks in Russia

    CERN Document Server

    Leonidov, A V

    2014-01-01

    Modelling of contagion in interbank networks is discussed. A model taking into account bow-tie structure and dissasortativity of interbank networks is developed. The model is shown to provide a good quantitative description of the Russian interbank market. Detailed arguments favoring the non-percolative nature of contagion-related risks in the Russian interbank market are given.

  11. Evaluation of bullying in persons with different risk for psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasić Jelena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emerging research suggests that being exposed to bullying during childhood can increase the risk of psychotic experiences in adulthood. Aggressive peer relations among adolescents are more frequent in boys, both for being victims or perpetrators. Aim: To evaluate whether bullying was more prevalent among Serbian clinical population of patients with psychosis in comparison to their healthy siblings and controls, and to analyze gender differences regarding bullying. Material and methods: This cross-sectional study evaluated schizophrenia spectrum patients (n = 52, age = 29.3 ± 5.9 yrs, in remission, illness duration <10 yrs, their healthy siblings (n = 55, age = 28.6 ± 6.8 yrs and controls (n=50, age=25.3±1.5 yrs. The subjects fulfilled the bullying questionnaire, five item self-rating scale. Descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney nonparametric test were used to analyze the data. Results: Compared to their healthy siblings, the patients were more likely to report that they were bullied (patients: 7.0 ± 3.5, siblings: 5.2 ± 2.0, p = 0.000, but patients also bullied others more (patients: 1.4 ± 0.8, siblings: 1.1 ± 0.4, p = 0.02. Comparing the group of patients and controls, we did not find statistically significant difference in any category. The male gender brings higher risk of being physically bullied which has been proven for all examined groups (patients- p = 0.03, controls and siblings- p = 0.00. Conclusion: Aggressive peer relations possibly contribute to the evolution of psychosis, as they were more prevalent in patients in comparison to their healthy siblings, particularly in males. Improved prevention of bullying and use of treatments against its psychological consequences might be one of the possible methods to ameliorate the course of psychosis.

  12. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  13. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  14. Concept Evaluation for Hydraulic Yaw System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stubkier, Søren; Pedersen, Henrik C.; Andersen, Torben Ole

    2013-01-01

    a suspension system on a car, leading the loads away from the turbine structure. However, to realize a soft hydraulic yaw system a new design concept must be found. As a part of the development of the new concept a preliminary concept evaluation has been conducted, evaluating seven different hydraulic yaw......The yaw system is the subsystem on a wind turbine which ensures that the rotor plane of the turbine always is facing the wind direction. Studies from [1] show that a soft yaw system may be utilized to dampen the loads in the wind turbine structure. The soft yaw system operates much like...... investigation. Loads and yaw demands are based on the IEC 61400-1 standard for wind turbine design, and the loads for this examination are extrapolated from the HAWC2 aeroelastic design code. The concepts are based on a 5 MW off-shore turbine....

  15. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  16. A Multicriteria Risk Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forest Management Alternatives on Forest Health in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervé Jactel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA has been developed to help decision makers choose between actions that require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range of management intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs (i.e., close to nature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomass production on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental, Atlantic and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies relevant to wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow and biotic (insect pests, pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by corresponding likelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, risk was lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the most damaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk, due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespective of tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative

  17. Risk Evaluation Approach and Application Research on Fuzzy-FMECA Method Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengjie Xu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to safeguard the safety of passengers and reducemaintenance costs, it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the security risk ofthe Railway Signal System. However, the conventional Fuzzy Analytical HierarchyProcess (FAHP can not describe the fuzziness and randomness of the judgment,accurately, and once the fuzzy sets are described using subjection degreefunction, the concept of fuzziness will be no longer fuzzy. Thus Fuzzy-FMECAmethod based on cloud model is put forward. Failure Modes Effects andCriticality Analysis (FMECA method is used to identify the risk and FAHP basedon cloud model is used for determining the subjection degree function in fuzzymethod, finally the group decision can be gained with the syntheticallyaggregated cloud model, the method’s feasibility and effectiveness are shown inthe practical examples. Finally Fuzzy-FMECA based on cloud model and theconventional FAHP are used to assess the risk respectively, evaluation resultsshow that the cloud model which is introduced into the risk assessment ofRailway Signal System can realize the transition between precise value andquality value by combining the fuzziness and randomness and provide moreabundant information than subjection degree function of the conventional FAHP.

  18. [From risk charts to guidelines: tools for evaluation and management of cardiovascular risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castello, Cristina; Colivicchi, Furio; Sclavo, Mariagrazia; Uguccioni, Massimo; Ebert, Alberto Genovesi; Abrignani, Maurizio G; Faggiano, Pompilio; Riccio, Carmine

    2006-03-01

    Despite the wide improvement of diagnostic techniques and the introduction of effective pharmacological and instrumental therapeutic strategies aimed to the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, their incidence and lethality are still elevated, with economic implications increasingly less sustainable by the public medical systems. The modern practice of cardiovascular prevention requires, thus, that diagnostic and therapeutic interventions, both at population level and on the single patient, should be more and more precise, effective, and appropriate. From this point of view, a correct global cardiovascular risk stratification assumes a preponderant relevance, in order to allow an adequate therapeutical response. For this purpose several work instruments, as risk charts and guidelines, namely dedicated to arterial hypertension and dyslipidemias, were developed and offered to clinicians interested in cardiovascular prevention. The aim of this review is to illustrate, in synthesis, those instruments, aiming to facilitate their implementation, thus reducing the actual gap between theoretical indications and the real world.

  19. Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double ....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....

  20. Evaluating Human Factors in Augmented Reality Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-12-01

    user’s location and then per- forming the (cognitive) task of Mark A. Livingston Naval Research Laboratory Evaluating Human Factors in Augmented Reality ...00-00-2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluating Human Factors in Augmented Reality Systems 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...the basis for situation awareness or—in combina- tion with visual cues—a navigation task. Tactile tasks. Via haptic devices, we can apply vir- tual

  1. Preparing and evaluating delivery systems for proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, L; Moeller, E H; van de Weert, M

    2006-01-01

    From a formulation perspective proteins are complex and therefore challenging molecules to develop drug delivery systems for. The success of a formulation depends on the ability of the protein to maintain the native structure and activity during preparation and delivery as well as during shipping...... and long-term storage of the formulation. Therefore, the development and evaluation of successful and promising drug delivery systems is essential. In the present review, some of the particulate drug delivery systems for parenteral delivery of protein are presented and discussed. The challenge...... for incorporation of protein in particulate delivery systems is exemplified by water-in-oil emulsions....

  2. Comparative evaluation of three commercial systems for detection of high-risk human papillomavirus in cervical and vaginal ThinPrep PreservCyt samples and correlation with biopsy results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binnicker, M J; Pritt, B S; Duresko, B J; Espy, M J; Grys, T E; Zarka, M A; Kerr, S E; Henry, M R

    2014-10-01

    Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) is the etiologic agent of more than 99% of all cervical cancers worldwide, with 14 genotypes being considered oncogenic or "high risk" because of their association with severe dysplasia and cervical carcinoma. Among these 14 high-risk types, HPV-16 and -18 account for approximately 70% of cervical cancers. The aim of this study was to evaluate three FDA-approved HPV nucleic acid-based tests for the ability to predict high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasias (CIN2 or worse) in corresponding tissue biopsy specimens. Residual specimens (total n = 793, cervical n = 743, vaginal n = 50) collected in ThinPrep PreservCyt medium with a cytologic result of ≥ atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance were tested by the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) assay (Qiagen, Gaithersburg, MD), the cobas HPV test (Roche Diagnostics, Indianapolis, IN), and the APTIMA HPV assay (Hologic, San Diego, CA). Genotyping for HPV-16 and HPV-18 was simultaneously performed by the cobas HPV test. Results were compared to cervical or vaginal biopsy findings, when they were available (n = 350). Among the 350 patients with corresponding biopsy results, 81 (23.1%) showed ≥ CIN2 by histopathology. The ≥ CIN2 detection sensitivity was 91.4% by the cobas and APTIMA assays and 97.5% by HC2 assay. The specificities of the cobas, APTIMA, and HC2 assays were 31.2, 42.0, and 27.1%, respectively. When considering only positive HPV-16 and/or HPV-18 genotype results, the cobas test showed a sensitivity and a specificity of 51.9 and 86.6%, respectively. While the HC2, cobas, and APTIMA assays showed similar sensitivities for the detection of ≥ CIN2 lesions, the specificities of the three tests varied, with the greatest specificity (86.6%) observed when the HPV-16 and/or HPV-18 genotypes were detected.

  3. Mobile based optical form evaluation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asım Sinan YÜKSEL

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Optical forms that contain multiple-choice answers are widely used both for electing students and evaluating student achievements in education systems in our country and worldwide. Optical forms are evaluated by employing optical mark recognition techniques through optical readers. High cost of these machines, limited access to them, long waiting time for evaluation results make the process hard for educationists working in cities or countries. In this study, a mobile application was developed for the educationists who own mobile phones or tablets for the purpose of evaluating students' answer sheets quickly and independent of location and optical readers. Optical form recognition, reading and evaluation processes are done on the image of student's answer sheet that is taken with the mobile phone or tablet of educationist. The Android based mobile application that we developed has a user-friendly interface, high success rate and is the first of our knowledge application that operates on mobile platforms in this field.

  4. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  5. Health environmental risks surveillance systems: toxicological surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Ferrer Dufol; Santiago Nogué Xarau; Francisco Vargas Marcos; Olivia Castillo Soria; Pilar Gascó Alberich; Ana de la Torre Reoyo; Eduardo de la Peña de Torres

    2004-01-01

    A study of the Clinical Toxicological Section, about the Epidemiological Surveillance in Emergency Services, in relation to chemical products intoxications during the 1999-2003 period, is presented. This work is a result of an agreement between the Spanish Toxicological Association (AETOX) and the Spanish Ministry of Health and Consumption, and was presented in the National Congress of Environment (CONAMA) within the “Health Environmental Risks Surveillance Systems” working group.

  6. Basin Scale Water Infrastructure Investment Evaluation Considering Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaheil, Y. H.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    Water storage infrastructure has historically been a primary means of addressing vulnerability to climate risk. Rainfall, and streamflow fluctuate at many time scales, rendering supply unreliable unless a mechanism for surface or subsurface storage is provided. Irrigated agriculture typically provides dramatically higher yields relative to rain fed agriculture, by ensuring a regular, when needed water supply. Irrigation is also typically the dominant water user in most parts of the world. Addressing storage-irrigation infrastructure needs is thus a critical piece in developing a strategy for regional water and food security in the face of a changing climate. In the 20th century, large reservoir and canal system projects were funded and developed in many regions. It is argued that these played a significant role in facilitating the Green Revolution in India, Pakistan and elsewhere. However, this notion has been challenged, and many negative environmental and socio-economic impacts of such projects have been highlighted. Governance and maintenance of such hydraulic infrastructure has also been a challenge, and a paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and participatory processes has been argued for. In the last decade or so, considerable interest has been directed towards local or on-farm decentralized storage development, i.e., towards small scale reservoir and use systems where governance may be less of an issue. There has been government support of such activities in countries such as India, leading to a rapid proliferation of such systems in some areas. Questions about the effect of such development on the regional hydrologic balance and as to their resilience in a changing climate arise. Further, in the spirit of IWRM, one needs to consider the potential use of water as well as the development and management of supply. In the current context, a central question that can be posed is the identification of the best mix of centralized and

  7. Evaluation vademecum for visual information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Simone

    1999-12-01

    This paper presents some methodological observations on the measurement of performance in Visual Information Retrieval systems. The paper identifies three different types of measures tow of which can be determined with methods inherited from physical and social sciences respectively. The third model is more typical of the design and construction of complicated systems, since it allows us to measure the performance of individual modules before their insertion in a particular application. This paper present some methodologies for the decontextualized evaluation, anchoring them to a case study of evaluation of several subsystems of an image database.

  8. Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, William B.

    1995-01-01

    An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

  9. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  10. Caries risk and prevention: Evaluation of a preventive program in a clinic for children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Correia Sampaio

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to verify the use of the Nexø caries risk assessment system together with the Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden, in a preventive program for children at the cariology clinic at Federal University of Paraíba. Methods: A sample of 107 children (2- to 14-year-old was attended on two occasions. The patients’ clinical data (DMF-T, dmf-t, Bleeding index, OHI-S and those from the preventive procedures performed (professional cleaning, fluoride application, Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden, Nexø caries risk were collected twice: first from the clinical record cards and on the second occasion by exams. Parents and guardians evaluated the clinical attendance in an interview and the children, by means of a VAS scale. According to the Nexø caries risk assessment system, 53 children (49.5% were classified at low risk (6. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS (11.0. Results: A positive correlation was observed between the two risk systems: Nexø and Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden of chances of avoiding new caries lesions. The possibility of avoiding new caries lesions increased 5% in both groups and a discrete increase was observed in the other parameters. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the Nexø system associated with the Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden, contributed to the assessment of the patients’ caries risk profile and to the success of the preventive program for children at the cariology clinic at Universidade Federal da Paraíba.

  11. Systemic Immunomodulatory Strategies in High-risk Corneal Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abud, Tulio B.; Di Zazzo, Antonio; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Dana, Reza

    2017-01-01

    The cornea is the most commonly transplanted tissue in the body. Although corneal grafts generally have high success rates, transplantation onto inflamed and vascularized host beds, or so-called high-risk corneal transplantation, has a high rate of graft rejection. The management of this high-risk corneal transplantation is challenging and involves numerous measures. One of the key measures to prevent graft rejection in these cases is the use of systemic immunosuppressive agents. In this article, we will review the systemic immunosuppressive agents most commonly used for high-risk corneal transplantation, which include corticosteroids, cysclosporine A, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and rapamycin. Benefits, risks, and published data on the use of these medications for high-risk corneal transplantation will be detailed. We will also summarize novel immunoregulatory approaches that may be used to prevent graft rejection in high-risk corneal transplantation.

  12. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  13. Risk factors for systemic inflammatory response after congenital cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güvener, Murat; Korun, Oktay; Demirtürk, Orhan Saim

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to assess the frequency of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) following congenital heart surgery and risk factors associated with this clinical syndrome. Charts of all patients undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease in a single institution over a five-year period were analyzed retrospectively. The presence of SIRS was evaluated based on the criteria of the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference. Of the 246 patients included in the study 22 (8.9%) had clinical parameters indicating SIRS. The patients in the SIRS group had significantly longer cardiopulmonary bypass time (105.14 ± 27.27 vs. 66.86 ± 26.64 min; p SIRS group. Binary logistic regression revealed cardiopulmonary bypass time (OR: 1.05, p SIRS. SIRS was also found to be a strong independent predictor of mortality (OR: 10.13, p SIRS after congenital heart surgery is associated with increased mortality. Independent risk factors for SIRS in the patient population of the study were cardiopulmonary bypass time, body weight below 10 kg and preoperative diagnosis of right to left shunt congenital heart disease. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Concept Evaluation for Hydraulic Yaw System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stubkier, Søren; Pedersen, Henrik C.; Andersen, Torben Ole

    2013-01-01

    a suspension system on a car, leading the loads away from the turbine structure. However, to realize a soft hydraulic yaw system a new design concept must be found. As a part of the development of the new concept a preliminary concept evaluation has been conducted, evaluating seven different hydraulic yaw...... concepts, ranging from a one-to-one copy of the electrical drive (electrical drives replaced by hydraulic dittos), to floating suspension systems mounted on hydraulic cylinders. Rough calculations of size and consequences of the different systems are presented ending up with the final concept for further...... investigation. Loads and yaw demands are based on the IEC 61400-1 standard for wind turbine design, and the loads for this examination are extrapolated from the HAWC2 aeroelastic design code. The concepts are based on a 5 MW off-shore turbine....

  15. Impact of dependencies in risk assessments of power distribution systems

    OpenAIRE

    Alvehag, Karin

    2008-01-01

     Society has become increasingly dependent on electricity, so power system reliability is of crucial importance. However, while underinvestment leads to an unacceptable number of power outages, overinvestment will result in costs that are too high for society. The challenge is to find a socioeconomically adequate level of risk. In this risk assessment, not only the probability of power outages, but also the severity of their consequences should be included.   A risk assessment can be performe...

  16. Evaluating Evaluation Systems: Policy Levers and Strategies for Studying Implementation of Educator Evaluation. Policy Snapshot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlach, Lauren

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation studies can provide feedback on implementation, support continuous improvement, and increase understanding of evaluation systems' impact on teaching and learning. Despite the importance of educator evaluation studies, states often need support to prioritize and fund them. Successful studies require expertise, time, and a shared…

  17. [Systemic cardiovascular risk assessment. Conventional or eye fundus-based?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, A; Kernt, M; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

    2010-09-01

    Several systemic cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment algorithms exist, of which the ESC HeartScore, Framingham and PROCAM are the most frequently applied in Germany. The risk estimates generated differ and take a number of different risk factors into consideration. Due to existing homology of retinal vessels and brain vessels, eye fundus examination is a promising approach to improving risk prediction. Large cohort studies investigated retinal vascular changes, including arteriovenous ratio, as well as signs of retinopathy such as cotton-wool spots, microaneurysms, or retinal hemorrhages for their ability to predict systemic cardiovascular events. While signs of retinopathy proved to have high predictive power (but are rarely diagnosed,) the retinal vascular changes investigated could contribute little to enhancing systemic CV risk prediction. A number of new and promising approaches based on static and dynamic retinal analysis exist, but still need to be validated prospectively.

  18. Evaluating Ventilation Systems for Existing Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldrich, Robb [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), Norwalk, CT (United States); Arena, Lois [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), Norwalk, CT (United States)

    2013-02-01

    In an effort to improve housing options near Las Vegas, Nevada, the Clark County Community Resources Division (CCCRD) performs substantial renovations to foreclosed homes. After dramatic energy, aesthetic, and health and safety improvements are made, homes are rented or sold to qualified residents. This report describes the evaluation and selection of ventilation systems for these homes, including key considerations when selecting an ideal system. The report then describes CCCRD’s decision process with respect to ventilation.

  19. Evaluation of EU Risk assessments Existing Chemicals (EC Regulation 793/93)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodar CWM; Berthault F; Bruijn JHM de; Leeuwen CJ van; Pronk MEJ; Vermeire TG; CSR

    2002-01-01

    An evaluation was performed on the first group (41) of completed risk assessments for chemicals of the EU priority lists (Existing Chemicals; EC Regulation 793/93). The evaluation focussed on the conclusions of the risk assessments. The EU risk assessment process detected a high number of substance

  20. Evaluation on the Risks of Agricultural Industrial Chain Based on FAHP——A Case of Regions Inhabited by Ethnic Groups in Wuling Mountain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Through recognizing the risking factors of industrial chain and selecting appropriate evaluation method, the index system on evaluating risking factors including market risk, natural risk, contact risk and efficiency risk in industrial chain is constructed,26 weighting indicators under the four layers are set up. Taking regions inhabited by ethnic groups in Wuling Mountain as an example, the risking factors of agricultural industrial chain in the area are analyzed by adopting the FAHP. The influencing degree of each risking factor on credit risks is analyzed. The results assume that with the market risk, contract risk, natural risk and efficiency risk. The natural risks become the principal risks of agricultural industrial chain and it should be paid much attention to. The low credit risk is a major factor that causes the contract between enterprise and rural households. The flood, pests, diseases and disasters also should be paid high attention to that is regarded as risking factors. The risking factors that come from the efficiency risk layer, for example, the unequal profit distribution among enterprises has little effect on enterprises in industrial chain. The research results provide evidence for stipulating risk prevention measures.