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Sample records for risk evaluation risk

  1. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  2. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  3. Risk Quantification and Evaluation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manmohan Singh

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper authors have discussed risk quantification methods and evaluation of risks and decision parameter to be used for deciding on ranking of the critical items, for prioritization of condition monitoring based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM. As time passes any equipment or any product degrades into lower effectiveness and the rate of failure or malfunctioning increases, thereby lowering the reliability. Thus with the passage of time or a number of active tests or periods of work, the reliability of the product or the system, may fall down to a low value known as a threshold value, below which the reliability should not be allowed to dip. Hence, it is necessary to fix up the normal basis for determining the appropriate points in the product life cycle where predictive preventive maintenance may be applied in the programme so that the reliability (the probability of successful functioning can be enhanced, preferably to its original value, by reducing the failure rate and increasing the mean time between failure. It is very important for defence application where reliability is a prime work. An attempt is made to develop mathematical model for risk assessment and ranking them. Based on likeliness coefficient β1 and risk coefficient β2 ranking of the sub-systems can be modelled and used for CBRRCM.Defence Science Journal, Vol. 64, No. 4, July 2014, pp. 378-384, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.64.6366 

  4. Software design for professional risk evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, V.; Calea, G.; Amza, G.; Iacobescu, G.; Nitoi, D.; Dimitrescu, A.

    2016-08-01

    Professional risk evaluation represents a complex activity involving each economic operator, with important repercussion upon health and security in work. Article represents an innovative study method, regarding professional risk analyze in which cumulative working posts are evaluated. Work presents a new software that helps in putting together all the working positions from a complex organizational system and analyzing them in order to evaluate the possible risks. Using this software, a multiple analysis can be done like: risk estimation, risk evaluation, estimation of residual risks and finally searching of risk reduction measures.

  5. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  6. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  7. Evaluation of edge detectors using avarage risk

    OpenAIRE

    Spreeuwers, L.J.; Heijden, van der, RW Rob

    1992-01-01

    A new method for evaluation of edge detectors, based on the average risk of a decision, is discussed. The average risk is a performance measure well-known in Bayesian decision theory. Since edge detection can be regarded as a compound decision making process, the performance of an edge detector is context dependent. Therefore, the application of average risk to edge detection is non-trivial. The paper describes a method to estimate the probabilities on a number of different types of (context ...

  8. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  9. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R. [Bremen Univ. (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: (a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or (b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  10. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Danielsson; C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  11. Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing...

  12. Abandoned metal mine stability risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bétournay, Marc C

    2009-10-01

    The abandoned mine legacy is critical in many countries around the world, where mine cave-ins and surface subsidence disruptions are perpetual risks that can affect the population, infrastructure, historical legacies, land use, and the environment. This article establishes abandoned metal mine failure risk evaluation approaches and quantification techniques based on the Canadian mining experience. These utilize clear geomechanics considerations such as failure mechanisms, which are dependent on well-defined rock mass parameters. Quantified risk is computed using probability of failure (probabilistics using limit-equilibrium factors of safety or applicable numerical modeling factor of safety quantifications) times a consequence impact value. Semi-quantified risk can be based on failure-case-study-based empirical data used in calculating probability of failure, and personal experience can provide qualified hazard and impact consequence assessments. The article provides outlines for land use and selection of remediation measures based on risk.

  13. Small Orbital Launcher - Risk Zone Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Viorel CHELARU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some aspects regarding two calculus models to evaluate the risk zone of the multistage launcher. Regarding the risk zone, unlike the classic model used for the launcher, we will use a calculus model build on non-inertial frames /taking part to the diurnal rotation (Earth spin. This is necessary to link the risk zone of the launch position, and place it on the map. For the risk zone we will use actually two models: first build in start frame which is more suitable for ascensional guidance phase, and second, built in quasi – velocity frame used for unguided motion especially in descending phase. The discussions will focus around the possibility to find a launching area to be satisfactory in terms of risk conditions arising from the SOL launching.

  14. Multicriteria Decision Analysis for banks risks evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Rakotoarivelo, Jean-Baptiste; ZARATÉ, Pascale; Razafimandimby, Josvah Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This poster aims to observe a better choice for risks evaluation Financial organisms. Our aim is to support banks during operations of customers with respect to funding opportunities, investment or credits reaching. First of all, we identify different types of risks associated with this activity and we secondly analysed them thanks to a method of multicriteria analysis AHP (Analytic hierachy Process) with different means adopted to identify them. It should be noted tha...

  15. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H

    2011-09-01

    We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF (q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF (p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF (q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF (p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  16. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  17. Preoperative Evaluation: Estimation of Pulmonary Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakshminarasimhachar, Anand; Smetana, Gerald W

    2016-03-01

    Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are common after major non-thoracic surgery and associated with significant morbidity and high cost of care. A number of risk factors are strong predictors of PPCs. The overall goal of the preoperative pulmonary evaluation is to identify these potential, patient and procedure-related risks and optimize the health of the patients before surgery. A thorough clinical examination supported by appropriate laboratory tests will help guide the clinician to provide optimal perioperative care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction.

  19. Evaluation of the "medication fall risk score".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Cyrus; Hall, Scott

    2017-01-01

    Results of a study evaluating the predictive validity of a fall screening tool in hospitalized patients are reported. Administrative claims data from two hospitals were analyzed to determine the discriminatory ability of the "medication fall risk score" (RxFS), a medication review fall-risk screening tool that is designed for use in conjunction with nurse-administered tools such as the Morse Fall Scale (MFS). Through analysis of data on administered medications and documented falls in a population of adults who underwent fall-risk screening at hospital admission over a 15-month period (n = 33,058), the predictive value of admission MFS scores, alone or in combination with retrospectively calculated RxFS-based risk scores, was assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were used to evaluate improvements in risk prediction with the addition of RxFS data to the prediction model. The area under the ROC curve for the predictive model for falls compromising both MFS and RxFS scores was computed as 0.8014, which was greater than the area under the ROC curve associated with use of the MFS alone (0.7823, p = 0.0030). Screening based on MFS scores alone had 81.25% sensitivity and 61.37% specificity. Combined use of RxFS and MFS scores resulted in 82.42% sensitivity and 66.65% specificity (NRI = 0.0587, p = 0.0003). Reclassification of fall risk based on coadministration of the MFS and the RxFS tools resulted in a modest improvement in specificity without compromising sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  1. [Evaluating individual occupational risk in teachers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanov, E G; Ishmukhametov, I B

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyzed work conditions of comprehensive school teachers according to workplace assessment. Additional studies covered opportunistic pathogens content of air in classrooms. Auxiliary medical examination evaluated health state of the teachers. Individual occupational risk was calculated with consideration of actual work conditions and health state. Comprehensive school teacher's work is characterized by constant or transitory influence by complex of occupational and work hazards that are mostly (according to to workplace assessment) increased work intensity, noise and inadequate illumination parameters. Ambient air of classrooms constantly contains high number of opportunistic pathogens, that could decrease immune system parameters and cause more droplet infections. Individual occupational risk of teachers, calculated with consideration of work conditions and health state parameters, appears to be high and proves high possibility of teachers' health damage at work. Recommendations cover evaluation of biologic factors within the workplace assessment, obligatory preliminary (before employment) and periodic medical examinations for comprehensive school teachers as for workers exposed to occupational hazards.

  2. Risk evaluation with enhaced covariance matrix

    CERN Document Server

    Urbanowicz, K; Richmond, P; Holyst, Janusz A.; Richmond, Peter; Urbanowicz, Krzysztof

    2006-01-01

    We propose a route for the evaluation of risk based on a transformation of the covariance matrix. The approach uses a `potential' or `objective' function. This allows us to rescale data from diferent assets (or sources) such that each set then has similar statistical properties in terms of their probability distributions. The method is tested using historical data from both the New York and Warsaw Stock Exchanges.

  3. Risk factors evaluation for urolithiasis among children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Velásquez-Forero

    2016-07-01

    Conclusions: Hypocitraturia and hypomagnesuria were the most frequent risk factors associated with urolithiasis, followed by hypercalciuria. High PTH values were excluded. Children presented two or more risk factors for urolithiasis.

  4. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  5. Febrile seizures: risks, evaluation, and prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Reese C; Oehler, Karen; Tingle, Leslie E

    2012-01-15

    Febrile seizures are common in the first five years of life, and many factors that increase seizure risk have been identified. Initial evaluation should determine whether features of a complex seizure are present and identify the source of fever. Routine blood tests, neuroimaging, and electroencephalography are not recommended, and lumbar puncture is no longer recommended in patients with uncomplicated febrile seizures. In the unusual case of febrile status epilepticus, intravenous lorazepam and buccal midazolam are first-line agents. After an initial febrile seizure, physicians should reassure parents about the low risk of long-term effects, including neurologic sequelae, epilepsy, and death. However, there is a 15 to 70 percent risk of recurrence in the first two years after an initial febrile seizure. This risk is increased in patients younger than 18 months and those with a lower fever, short duration of fever before seizure onset, or a family history of febrile seizures. Continuous or intermittent antiepileptic or antipyretic medication is not recommended for the prevention of recurrent febrile seizures.

  6. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  7. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  8. Risk evaluation methods at individual ship and company level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractSafety management and risk profiling to identify substandard ships are of importance to the shipping industry. Whereas current methods rely heavily on detention risk and flag state performance, we extend the risk assessment by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide

  9. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  10. The evaluation of the internal audit risk regarding public procurements

    OpenAIRE

    Iulian Bogdan DOBRA

    2009-01-01

    The paper wants to highlight the risk evaluation only for The public procurements carried out through demands of supply. Internal auditors must report the results of their work to the general management and any significant weakness discovered during the audit mission. But, on the other hand, we must not forget that auditors also face a risk, such as the detection risk, called the audit risk. Therefore, the internal auditor must consider the audit risk at the level of each operation as being a...

  11. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk managem

  12. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, ... In addition, the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) calculated for indoor exposure ranges ...

  13. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...... the estimates for confounding from other risk factors. We describe some potential unintentional effects when using adjusted risk estimates in evaluating the efficacy and sensitivity of risk-based surveillance systems (SSe). In two examples, we quantify and compare the efficacy and SSe using adjusted and crude...

  14. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  15. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criteria...

  16. Risk Evaluation of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Gioiosa

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We review here our studies on early exposure to low doses of the estrogenic endocrine-disrupting chemical bisphenol A (BPA on behavior and metabolism in CD-1 mice. Mice were exposed in utero from gestation day (GD 11 to delivery (prenatal exposure or via maternal milk from birth to postnatal day 7 (postnatal exposure to 10 µg/kg body weight/d of BPA or no BPA (controls. Bisphenol A exposure resulted in long-term disruption of sexually dimorphic behaviors. Females exposed to BPA pre- and postnatally showed increased anxiety and behavioral profiles similar to control males. We also evaluated metabolic effects in prenatally exposed adult male offspring of dams fed (from GD 9 to 18 with BPA at doses ranging from 5 to 50 000 µg/kg/d. The males showed an age-related significant change in a number of metabolic indexes ranging from food intake to glucose regulation at BPA doses below the no observed adverse effect level (5000 µg/kg/d. Consistent with prior findings, low but not high BPA doses produced significant effects for many outcomes. These findings provide further evidence of the potential risks that developmental exposure to low doses of the endocrine disrupter BPA may pose to human health, with fetuses and infants being highly vulnerable.

  17. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  18. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from preo

  19. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  20. Sex differences in self-reported risk-taking propensity on the Evaluation of Risks scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killgore, William D S; Grugle, Nancy L; Killgore, Desiree B; Balkin, Thomas J

    2010-06-01

    The Evaluation of Risks scale was recently developed as a self-report inventory for assessing risk-taking propensity, but further validation is necessary because most studies have predominantly included male subjects. Because males commonly exhibit greater risk-taking propensity than females, evidence of such a sex difference on the scale would further support its construct validity. 29 men and 25 women equated for age (range: 18 to 36 years) completed the scale. Internal consistency of the scale was generally modest, particularly among women. Men scored significantly higher than women on four of nine indices of risk-taking propensity, including Danger Seeking, Energy, Invincibility, and Total Risk-Propensity. Factors measuring thrill seeking and danger seeking correlated positively with a concurrent measure of sensation seeking. Although the higher scores exhibited by men are consistent with prior research on other measures of risk-taking, further research on this scale with samples including women is warranted.

  1. Operational Mechanism and Evaluation System for Emergency Logistics Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Cheng

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Lots of risks existed in the operating process of emergency logistics especially when natural disasters happened. Both operating mechanism and evaluation system research on Emergency Logistics Risks (ELR are the basis of effective recognizing, preventing and responding to risks, so it’s of great theoretical and practical significance to study the formation and influence mechanism and to establish an evaluating index system for ELR. Firstly, some foundation research about ELR was carried out, including definition, characteristics and classification of ELR. The formation and influence mechanism of ELR were discussed. The research of questionnaire survey offered an objective support for theoretical mechanism and index system establishment. Then, the evaluating index system for ELR was established. This system was a multi-level index system, and mainly evaluated by the decision-making risk, dispatching and commanding risk, organizing and coordinating risk, executing and controlling risk, resources supporting risk and their sub index. The establishment principles and significance of the index system were discussed. Then, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Delphi method were used to confirm the index weight and value. Finally, a case analysis on ELR of Yushu earthquake was conducted to demonstrate the evaluating index system and to evaluate the actual risk level.

  2. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  3. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  4. Software outsourcing risk management: establishing outsourcee evaluation item systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Mei-yuan; LU Yao-bin; ZHANG Jin-long

    2006-01-01

    Outsourcing software development has many advantages as well as inevitable risks. Of these risks, outsourcee selection is one of the most important. A wrong outsourcee selection may have severe adverse influence on the expected outcome of the project. We analyzed the risks involved in outsourcee selection and also provided methods to identify these risks. Using the principles of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Cluster Analysis based on Group Decision Making, we established an index evaluation system to evaluate and select outsourcees. Real world applications of this system demonstrated its effectiveness in evaluating and selecting qualified outsourcees.

  5. Dynamic risk factors: the Kia Marama evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Stephen M; Wales, David S; Bakker, Leon; Ward, Tony

    2002-04-01

    Risk assessment is an essential part of clinical practice. Each of the three aspects of risk (static, stable, and acute dynamic) are important at various points of contact between the man and the systems that are responsible for providing service. Dynamic factors, the typical treatment and supervision targets, have received less research attention than static factors. This paper examined the extent to which pretreatment, posttreatment and change scores were associated with reoffending among men incarcerated for sexually molesting. The results were generally supportive of change in prooffending attitudes as the key to not reoffending and suggested that the perspective-taking component of empathy and the use of fantasy may be important mechanisms. Affect scales generally failed to show any relationship with reoffending, outside decreases in trait and suppressed anger. Moreover, these data suggest that we could improve our assessments and treatment through increased sensitivity to offense pathways.

  6. Evaluating microcystin exposure risk through fish consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Poste, Amanda E.; Hecky, Robert E.; Guildford, Stephanie J.

    2011-01-01

    Microcystin is a cyanobacterial hepatotoxin that is found worldwide, and poses a serious threat to the ecological communities in which it is found as well as to those who rely on these waters for drinking, sanitation, or as a food source. Microcystin is known to accumulate in fish and other aquatic biota, however the prevalence of microcystin in fish tissue and the human health risks posed by microcystin exposure through fish consumption remain poorly resolved. Here we show that microcystin i...

  7. A scalable distribution network risk evaluation framework via symbolic dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Yuan

    Full Text Available Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk.This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors - device, structure, load and special operation - a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic.

  8. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  9. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... are: A: to detect an emerging disease or infection, if it becomes introduced into a population; or B: to substantiate freedom from a condition in a population; or C: to detect cases and estimate the prevalence of an endemic condition in a population. In risk-based surveillance these aims should be met...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  10. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  11. Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miglioretti Diana L

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building. Methods We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR of colorectal cancer (CRC incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms. Results Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms. Conclusions Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models.

  12. A framework for risk-benefit evaluations in biomedical research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Wendler, David

    2011-06-01

    Essentially all guidelines and regulations require that biomedical research studies have an acceptable risk-benefit profile. However, these documents offer little concrete guidance for implementing this requirement and determining when it is satisfied. As a result, those charged with risk-benefit evaluations currently assess the risk-benefit profile of biomedical research studies in unsystematic ways, raising concern that some research participants are not being protected from excessive risks and that some valuable studies involving acceptable risk are being rejected. The present paper aims to address this situation by delineating the first comprehensive framework, which is based on existing guidelines and regulations as well as the relevant literature, for risk-benefit evaluations in biomedical research.

  13. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  15. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  16. Fuzzy Evaluation of the Risk of Investment in Securities in the Portfolio Optimization Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Siniavskaya, O. A.; Zhelezko, B. A.

    2007-01-01

    Investment in securities always associates with the risk, but in practice it is enough difficult to evaluate the risk quantitatively. There is no united opinion about quantitative evaluation of the risk in the theory of finance. Two models of the risk evaluation are the most popularized: Value-at-Risk (VaR) model and risk interpretation as standard deviation of the security return.

  17. E-Voting Risk and Risk Management Evaluation using Analytical Hierarchy Process: The Case of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amry, F. A.

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is twofold; to investigate the risks involving with e-voting and to evaluate the risk management of policy of e-voting. In the country of Oman, the Ministry of Interior (MOI has already implemented an e-voting system making use of the e-Authentication technique, which uses the existing National ID Card to authenticate citizens for voting. This new e-voting system will give solutions that shall allow all citizens to come to election points and get authenticated through their National ID Card before proceeding to the vote. The solution shall be hosted within the current National ID System, taking advantage of the electronic authentication of the cards while enhancing these capabilities with functions specific to the election process, ensuring election rights and introducing vote timestamp storage in the cards. However; review and observation within Ministry of Interior (MOI of Oman concluded that there is no documented Risk Management Plan that can foresee risks, estimate impacts, and define responses to issues relating with risks involving voting process in the country of Oman. In the context of e-voting systems, risk management is regarded as the characterization of the e- Voting System in Oman; this consists of defining the system for the risk assessment. This is the assessment of system elements, such as hardware, software, system interfaces, data and information, personnel actions, and the mission of the e- Voting system. This is followed by the Identification Threat Sources, Vulnerability Identification, Controls Analysis, Threat Likelihood, performance of impact Analysis and risk level. It is then followed by the Development of Risk Mitigation Strategies and finally the documentation of Results.

  18. Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Veeramany, Arun; Bonebrake, Christopher A.; Ivans, William J.; Coles, Garill A.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2016-09-26

    This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalized cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.

  19. AHP-FCE Based Physical Exercise Risk Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Yi-zhi; DING Yong-sheng; XU Hong-an

    2007-01-01

    Exercise is a highly proven and beneficial health promotion modality. But it is very difficult to determine whether the person during exercise is safe. A unique and comprehensive approach is proposed to perform physical exercise risk evaluation (PERE), in which personalized factors are determined basing on grey correlation analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to structure the large numbers of risk factors, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is applied to fuzzify the factors and compute the exercise risk level. Finally, an actual calculation example is used to verify the feasibility of the method.

  20. Seismic risk evaluation aided by IR thermography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinzato, E.; Cadelano, G.; Bison, P.; Petracca, A.

    2009-05-01

    Conservation of buildings in areas at seismic risk must take prevention into account. The safeguard architectonic heritage is an ambitious objective, but a priority for planning programmes at varying levels of decision making. Preservation and restoration activities must be optimized to cover a vast and widespread historical and architectonic heritage present in many countries. Masonry buildings requires an adequate level of knowledge based on the importance of structural geometry, which may include the damage, details of construction and properties of materials. For identification and classification of masonry is necessary to find shape, type and size of the elements, texture, size of mortar joints, assemblage. The recognition can be done through a visual inspection of the surface of walls, which can be examined, where is not visible, removing a layer of plaster. Thermography is an excellent tool for a fast survey and collection of vital information for this purpose, but it is extremely important define a precise procedure in the development of more efficient monitoring tools. Thermography is a non-destructive method that allows recognizing the structural damage below plaster, detecting the presence of discontinuity in masonry, for added storeys, cavity, filled openings, and repairs. Furthermore, the fast identification of subsurface state allows to select areas where other methods either more penetrating or partially destructive have to be applied. The paper reports experimental results achieved in the mainframe of the European project RECES Modiquus. The main aim of the project is to improve methods, techniques and instruments for facing antiseismic options. Both passive and active thermographic techniques have been applied in different weather conditions and time schemes. A dedicated algorithm has been developed to enhance the visibility of wall bonding.

  1. Space Debris - Evaluation of risk perception and countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belviso, L.

    The problem of Space Debris not only belongs to purely technical domain Although the main effort is to establish legal background to handle with possible accident caused by space debris as well as finding countermeasures another relevant problem is the perception of risk by both general public and space operators The main objective of this paper concerns the analysis and comparison of real and perceived risk related to space debris in order to gives useful outputs for decision makers in both public and private sector of space operators A correct evaluation of the real risk deriving from space debris will be particularly useful in the next years to correctly evaluate launch and operational phases of commercial satellites as well as possible countermeasures to avoid or limitate damages In the public sector a correct evaluation of risk will represents an extremely useful tool to handle crisis management and promote correct information on space

  2. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan S. Bleeker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera.

  3. Thrombocytosis: Diagnostic Evaluation, Thrombotic Risk Stratification, and Risk-Based Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleeker, Jonathan S.; Hogan, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Thrombocytosis is a commonly encountered clinical scenario, with a large proportion of cases discovered incidentally. The differential diagnosis for thrombocytosis is broad and the diagnostic process can be challenging. Thrombocytosis can be spurious, attributed to a reactive process or due to clonal disorder. This distinction is important as it carries implications for evaluation, prognosis, and treatment. Clonal thrombocytosis associated with the myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera, carries a unique prognostic profile, with a markedly increased risk of thrombosis. This risk is the driving factor behind treatment strategies in these disorders. Clinical trials utilizing targeted therapies in thrombocytosis are ongoing with new therapeutic targets waiting to be explored. This paper will outline the mechanisms underlying thrombocytosis, the diagnostic evaluation of thrombocytosis, complications of thrombocytosis with a special focus on thrombotic risk as well as treatment options for clonal processes leading to thrombocytosis, including essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera. PMID:22084665

  4. Evaluating invasion risk for freshwater fishes in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Marr

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Africa, as a signatory of the Convention on Biological Diversity, has an obligation to identify, prioritise and manage invasive species and their introduction pathways. However, this requires knowledge of the introduction pathways, factors influencing establishment success, invasive potential, current distributions and ecological impacts. Objectives: To evaluate the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK to predict the invasion risk posed by fish species proposed for introduction into South Africa. Method: FISK assessments were compiled for species whose invasion status in South Africa was known. A Receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis was conducted to calibrate the FISK for South Africa. The calibrated FISK was used to evaluate the risk that three species recently proposed for importation for aquaculture could become invasive in South Africa. Results: A FISK score of 14 was identified as the threshold to delineate between species that could become invasive in South Africa and those that are unlikely to become invasive. Of the three species evaluated, Silurus glanis had a high risk of becoming invasive in South Africa, Lates calcarifer was likely to be invasive and Oncorhynchus tshawytscha was unlikely to be invasive in South Africa. Conclusion: FISK was demonstrated to be a useful risk assessment tool to evaluate the invasion risk posed by species proposed for use in aquaculture. For the large number of fish imported for the pet trade, a rapid screening assessment to flag potentially high risk species was recommended prior to a full FISK assessment for flagged species.

  5. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  6. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  7. Approach for evaluating inundation risks in urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhihua; Chen, Zhihe; Chen, Xiaohong; He, Peiying

    2016-05-15

    Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers. Hence, inundation evaluation is becoming increasingly important around the world. This comprehensive assessment involves numerous indices in urban catchments, but the high-dimensional and non-linear relationship between the indices and the risk presents an enormous challenge for accurate evaluation. Therefore, an approach is hereby proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate inundation risks in urban drainage systems based on a storm water management model, the projection pursuit method, the ordinary kriging method and the K-means clustering method. This approach is tested using a residential district in Guangzhou, China. Seven evaluation indices were selected and twenty rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate and validate the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. The inundation risks in the study area drainage system were evaluated under different rainfall scenarios. The following conclusions are reached. (1) The proposed approach, without subjective factors, can identify the main driving factors, i.e., inundation duration, largest water flow and total flood amount in this study area. (2) The inundation risk of each manhole can be qualitatively analyzed and quantitatively calculated. There are 1, 8, 11, 14, 21, and 21 manholes at risk under the return periods of 1-year, 5-years, 10-years, 20-years, 50-years and 100-years, respectively. (3) The areas of levels III, IV and V increase with increasing rainfall return period based on analyzing the inundation risks for a variety of characteristics. (4) The relationships between rainfall intensity and inundation-affected areas are revealed by a logarithmic model. This study proposes a novel and successful approach to assessing risk in urban drainage systems and provides guidance for improving urban drainage systems and inundation preparedness.

  8. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  9. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  10. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  11. Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Jianxing; TAN Zhendong

    2005-01-01

    Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10-6 to 10-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

  12. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  13. Evaluating the risk of coal bursts in underground coal mines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mark Christopher⇑; Gauna Michael

    2016-01-01

    Coal bursts involve the sudden, violent ejection of coal or rock into the mine workings. They are almost always accompanied by a loud noise, like an explosion, and ground vibration. Bursts are a particular haz-ard for miners because they typically occur without warning. Despite decades of research, the sources and mechanics of these events are not well understood, and therefore they are difficult to predict and control. Experience has shown, however, that certain geologic and mining factors are associated with an increased likelihood of a coal burst. A coal burst risk assessment consists of evaluating the degree to which these risk factors are present, and then identifying appropriate control measures to mitigate the hazard. This paper summarizes the U.S. and international experience with coal bursts, and describes the known risk factors in detail. It includes a framework that can be used to guide the risk assessment process.

  14. RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

  15. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  16. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  17. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  18. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  19. Evaluating Appraisers’ Research: uncertainties and risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saverio Miccoli

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This work was inspired by some of the ideas introduced during the CESET Meeting “Appraisal – University Education and Professional Practice”, that took place in Rome on November 19, 2010. This meeting aimed at drawing a balance of the status of appraisal discipline. In addition to that, the paper faces all the perspectives of research for this discipline following the reform of the University system in Italy. We will therefore offer some critical reflections developed in the light of the new measures adopted: regrouping of scientific-disciplinary sectors, introduction of national-scale qualification processes, definition of innovative criteria to evaluate research activities and their results.

  20. Empirical likelihood-based evaluations of Value at Risk models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is a basic and very useful tool in measuring market risks. Numerous VaR models have been proposed in literature. Therefore, it is of great interest to evaluate the efficiency of these models, and to select the most appropriate one. In this paper, we shall propose to use the empirical likelihood approach to evaluate these models. Simulation results and real life examples show that the empirical likelihood method is more powerful and more robust than some of the asymptotic method available in literature.

  1. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    McManus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  2. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example.

  3. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  4. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  5. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  6. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  7. [Evaluating occupational health risk in titanium alloys production workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarova, E L

    2007-01-01

    The authors present data on evaluation of personified and non-personified occupational risk of health disorders in titanium alloys production workers, concerning hygienic, medical and biologic, social and psychologic criteria. One-digit assessment of the work conditions is suggested.

  8. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package Micr

  9. Risk of nosocomial bacteria transmissions: evaluation of cleaning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk of nosocomial bacteria transmissions: evaluation of cleaning methods of ... after which swabs were taken from the surface of the unclean probe and after probe disinfection by single and double paper wipe cleaning method. The swabs were cultured on Blood agar to determine the characteristics of the ... Article Metrics.

  10. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  11. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  12. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with First Episode Febrile Seizure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharawat, Indar Kumar; Singh, Jitender; Dawman, Lesa; Singh, Amitabh

    2016-05-01

    Febrile seizure (FS) is the single most common type of seizure seen in children between 6 months to 5 years of age. The purpose of our study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures, which would help in the better management and preventive measures in children at risk for FS episodes. To evaluate the risk factors associated with the first episode of febrile seizures in Indian children. This was a hospital based, case control study. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with the first FS episode in children. Seventy (70) children between age 6 months to 5 years with their first episode of FS were compared with 70 children with fever but without seizures based on various risk factors. The mean age was 24.90±16.11 months in cases and 26.34±16.93 months in controls. Male: female ratio was 2:1. A positive family history was found in 31.4% of first degree and 11.4% in second degree relatives. Mean maximum temperature was 102.06±1.1°F and URI (upper respiratory infection) was most common cause of fever. Antenatal complication was significantly higher in the case group. RBC (Red Blood Cells) indices like lower mean haemoglobin, MCV (Mean Corpuscular Volume), MCH (Mean Corpuscular Haemoglobin concentration) and higher RDW (Red Cell Distribution Width) values were seen in patients. Serum sodium, Serum calcium and random blood sugar values of the cases were significantly lower than those of controls (pfebrile seizures, peak body temperature, underlying cause of fever, antenatal complications, low serum calcium, sodium, blood sugar and microcytic hypochromic anaemia are the risk factors associated with the occurrence of first episode of febrile seizure and, thus, preventive measures in removing these risk factors could lead to a decrease in incidence of FS.

  13. Evaluation of Risk Factors for Hepatosteatosis in Gall Stone Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman Anıl Savaş

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: It has been reported that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD was associated with cholecystectomy and cholecystectomy that may be a risk factor for the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. In this sense, we studied the other risk factors for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with cholelythiasis. Methods: In this study, we included 204 consecutive patients who underwent elective cholecystectomy between June 2011 and January 2014 due to cholelythiasis. We retrospectively evaluated the files of the patients, including operative findings, history, laboratory and radiological imaging findings obtained from the hospital information system and the archived contents of the files. Results: There was no significant relationship between the number and size of the stones and hepatic steatosis (p=0.83 and p=0.96, respectively. Besides, there was no statistically significant relationship between gender and hepatosteatosis. In multivariate regression, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM and cholelithiasis were identified as an independent risk factor for NAFLD. Conclusion: NAFLD and cholelithiasis are common in the general population and have common risk factors. Obesity, female gender, age, type 2 DM, hypertriglyceridemia, insulin resistance, metobolic syndrome, fast weight loss, and bile stasis are risk factors for cholelithiasis. (The Medical Bulletin of Haseki 2015; 53: 237-40

  14. Kennedy space center cardiovascular disease risk reduction program evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine S Calderon

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Kristine S Calderon1, Charles Smallwood1, David A Tipton21Occupational Medicine and Environmental Health Services, Comprehensive Health Services, Inc., Kennedy Space Center, Kennedy Space Center, FL, USA; 2Aerospace Medicine and Occupational Health Branch, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Kennedy Space Center, FL, USAAbstract: This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC Cardiovascular Disease (CVD Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL and low density lipoprotein (LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03; diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002; total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001 as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04. Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05; and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001. These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information

  15. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  16. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ultra high voltage (UHV power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method in this paper. After the risk evaluation index system was built, the AHP was used to determine the weights of risk indicators, and the FCE method was to perform the risk evaluation. The evaluation result shows that (1 “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project has moderate risk, which indicates the occurrence probability of project risk is medium and the risk occurrence will cause general loss for project, (2 “society risk” has the highest level, and the next is “policy and law risk,” “technique risk,” “natural environmental risk,” and “Management risk,” respectively, and it should keep main eye on the social risk, policy and law risk, and technique risk. Finally, according to the risk evaluation result, the specific risk control recommendations were proposed for the smooth construction of this project.

  17. [Microscopic hematuria : Reasonable and risk-adapted diagnostic evaluation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löbig, N; Wezel, F; Martini, T; Schröppel, B; Bolenz, C

    2017-06-22

    Microscopic hematuria that is not explained by an obvious underlying condition is a frequent and often an incidental finding that commonly triggers urological or nephrological evaluation. Potential underlying conditions range from benign to severe malignant diseases of the kidneys and urinary tract. A nonsystematic literature search was performed, focusing on potential urological and nephrological causes of hematuria. National and international guidelines were considered and diagnostic as well as follow-up strategies are discussed. We provide a recommendation for practices in the clinical evaluation of hematuria. The overall prevalence for microscopic hematuria is estimated at approximately 2%, whereas risk populations show an increase to around 30%. In 13-35% of patients presenting with microscopic hematuria, a medical or surgical intervention is required. Malignant tumors of the kidneys or urinary tract can be diagnosed in 2.6-4% of all patients and in up to 25.8% of at-risk populations. "Idiopathic microscopic hematuria" without an obvious underlying medical condition accounts for approximately 80% of patients with asymptomatic hematuria. After exclusion of nephrological diseases, standard diagnostic procedures by means of medical history, physical and laboratory examination as well as ultrasound of the kidneys and the urinary tract should be performed. In the presence of risk factors, an extended diagnostic work-up using cystoscopy, urinary cytology, and cross-sectional imaging of the upper urinary tract is indicated. Evidence-based strategies of a risk-adapted diagnostic evaluation for microscopic hematuria are not available. The development of reliable clinical and molecular markers offers great potential for the identification of patients at higher risk for harboring severe diseases.

  18. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites. The report provides an overview of an approach for assessing risk to ...

  19. Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Ecological Risk to Invertebrate Receptors from PAHs in Sediments at Hazardous Waste Sites. The report provides an overview of an approach for assessing risk to ...

  20. Quantitative Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-24

    program risk evaluation frameworks and criteria set out, in formal documentation, for proposal and contact execution evaluation as determined by the PMO ...phase until late December 2015. During this time there was turnover in the PMO . We decided that we needed to reaffirm the collaboration agreement...pertinent to developing RLI. We reviewed prior analyses of root causes of adverse program outcome. We identified Program Management Office ( PMO ) risk

  1. Risk-sharing versus risk-transfer in Islamic finance: An evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    HASAN, Zubair

    2015-01-01

    Some recent writings on Islamic finance have resuscitated the old‘no risk, no gain’ precept from the earlier literature in the wake of current financial crisis. They argue that the basic reason for the recurrence of such crisesis the conventional interest-based financial system that rests purelyon transfer of risks. In contrast, Islam shuns interest and promotes sharing of risks, not their transfer.The distinction is used to make a case for replacing the conventional system with the Islamic; ...

  2. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  3. Quantitative basin evaluation, a tool for reducing exploration risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Over the last decade, the evaluation of the petroleum potential of sedimentary basins has shifted from a qualitative to a quantitative approach. This new perspective has led to the elaboration of basin simulators and a new discipline emerged: the basin modeling which is nowadays massively used by the oil industry. This methodology is an integration platform including geology, geochemistry and physics. Combined with uncertainty assessments, it is a powerful tool for reducing exploration risks. In this respect, IFP dedicates one of its IFP Sessions to 'Quantitative Basin Evaluation, a Tool for Reducing Exploration Risks'. This session was held on 18 June, 2001. The purpose of this workshop is to review the most modern advances used by professionals in the oil industry to improve the rate of hydrocarbon discovery and to lower exploration costs in frontier areas. IFP Sessions are conferences held for decision-makers and technical leaders to promote exchanges among involved parties: oil and gas companies, petroleum services and supply industries, engineering firms and research centers. Program: quantitative basin evaluation: the Berkine basin and its results; application of 2-D and 3-D basin modelling in the Gulf of Mexico; 2-D modelling in Brazilian sedimentary basins: lessons from recent case histories; quantitative modelling in the North Sea: towards a more confident assessment of the critical risks (*); uncertainties evaluation in petroleum system modelling (*); prediction of hydrocarbon type in the deep-water, Gulf of Mexico (*); constraining source and charge risk in deep-water areas - the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Angola (*); an overview of basin modelling and geochemistry activities in PDO; quantitative basin evaluation: how does it affect decision in exploration (*); panel discussion: evolution of the modelling tools. Abstracts are available only for 5 presentations (marked with (*)). (J.S.)

  4. Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

  5. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  6. Evaluation of high-risk living kidney donors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangdhanakanond, Kawin; Mandelbrot, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Careful evaluation of potential living kidney donors is crucial to assure the well being of the donors, especially because they do not gain any direct medical benefit from donation. This process also helps assess the quality and safety of the organs donated to the recipients. While all programs share these goals, donor selection criteria vary significantly among U.S. transplant centers. In part, this is due to the limited data that exists as to long-term outcomes among donors who are medically complex, or at higher risk for complications, such as those with hypertension, obesity, or lower kidney function. This article reviews available evidence regarding outcomes after living donation and current trends in U.S. practices, and seeks to provide practical guidance in evaluating high-risk potential living kidney donors.

  7. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Single particle effects, Biostack, and risk evaluation - Studies on the radiation risk from Galactic cosmic rays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    The possible health risks posed by Galactic cosmic rays, especially the possible heightened cancer risk, are examined. The results of the Biostack studies of the biological effects of high-energy cosmic rays are discussed. The biological mechanisms involved in possible harm due to cosmic rays are considered.

  9. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  10. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  11. Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2007-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

  12. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  13. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  14. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc [INERIS, Parc Technologique Alata BP2 - 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Bomfim, Joao A S, E-mail: dominique.fleury@ineris.fr [Centro Ricerche Plast-optica (CRP), Via Jacopo Linussio 1 - 33020 Amaro (Italy)

    2011-07-06

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  15. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  16. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  17. Evaluation of radiation risk and work practices during cerebral interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingstone, Roshan S; Raghuram, L; Korah, Ipeson P; Raj, D Victor [Department of Radiodiagnosis, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004 (India)

    2003-09-01

    This study was intended to evaluate radiation risk to patients during cerebral interventions and the contribution to this risk from work practices. Thirty nine patients undergoing cerebral interventions in a digital subtraction angiography suite were included in this study. Patients who underwent cerebral interventions were categorised into two groups according to the number of cerebral interventions performed on them, and their effective doses were calculated. The effective dose for patients undergoing a single cerebral intervention (group A) varied from 1.55 to 15.9 mSv and for multiple cerebral interventions (group B) varied from 16.52 to 43.52 mSv. Two patients who underwent multiple cerebral interventions (group B) had alopecia of the irradiated scalp.

  18. Evaluation of risk management status for Croatian logistic operators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana BOŽIĆ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding organisational risks makes possible to control them and to change them into organisational strengths. Being known as “measure of uncertainty” in the business process, the risk is the uncertainty of achieving the organizational objectives. It may involve positive or negative consequences. There is a level of uncertainty in every supply chain while operating transportation and warehousing, positioning on the market, developing customer support, reducing cycle times or cutting costs. Therefore, the risk assessment should be one of the main tasks for any supply chain management team. It is required to develop formal risk assessment procedures, to identify the potential impacts to the supply chain operations and to develop a set of contingency plans to mitigate risks. This paper deals with supply chain risk assessment methodology, outlining the present risk management status of Croatian logistic operators.

  19. An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M., E-mail: bmdantas@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2014-07-01

    The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: {sup 210}Po; {sup 226}Ra and {sup 241}Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like {sup 137}Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

  20. Evaluation of Risk Factors Related to Recidivism Among Sentenced Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinem Yıldız

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is taking the place of dangerousness in recent criminal research. Detection of static and dynamic risk factors related and/or interacting to recidivism in accordance with personality characteristics and crime types may help crime prevention strategies to improve. Out of all participants 35% (n=41 are sentenced for manslaughter/physical injury, 35% (n=41 sexual crime and 30% (n=35 theft. The mean age of the participants is 33.81 (sd=9-12 years. During the interview, a questionnaire which is prepared by the researcher by reviewing the literature, Symptom Checklist Short Form, aggression inventory was used. Interviews are conducted face to face by the researcher at the relevant correctional facilities with the permissions of Ministry of Justice and ethical committee. Recidivism is found related to having a period far away from nuclear family before age 18, criminal and drag-alcohol abusing friends, anti-social behaviors; abusing illegal drags, displaying disciplinary problems in prison and during military service. Discussion: Results are evaluated under demographics, relationships in family and close friends, childhood abuse by leaning on current literature. Key words: prevention and control, crime, risk assessment

  1. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  2. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  3. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  4. Obesity, physical activity and cancer risks: Results from the Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, Carlos; Bauman, Adrian; Egger, Sam; Sitas, Freddy; Nair-Shalliker, Visalini

    2017-04-01

    Physical activity (PA) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the evidence linking PA with lower cancer risk is inconclusive. We examined the independent and interactive effects of PA and obesity using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy for obesity, on the risk of developing prostate (PC), postmenopausal breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), ovarian (OC) and uterine (UC) cancers. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for cancer specific confounders, in 6831 self-reported cancer cases and 1992 self-reported cancer-free controls from the Cancer Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study, using unconditional logistic regression. For women, BMI was positively associated with UC risk; specifically, obese women (BMI≥30kg/m(2)) had nearly twice the risk of developing UC compared to women with healthy-BMI-range (cancer type, CRC and PC. In particular, obese men had 37% (OR=1.37;CI:1.11-1.70), 113% (OR=2.13;CI:1.55-2.91) and 51% (OR=1.51;CI:1.17-1.94) higher risks of developing any cancer, CRC and PC respectively, when compared to men with healthy-BMI-range (BMIcancer risks for men. We found no evidence of an interaction between BMI and PA in the CLEAR study. These findings suggest that PA and obesity are independent cancer risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  6. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area.

  7. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  8. Pest risk assessment of Monilinia fructicola for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    of the risk assessment area. Cultural practices and control measures currently applied and competition with other Monilinia species cannot prevent the establishment of M. fructicola. The probability of spread is very likely because of the multiple ways of dispersal of the pest. The overall impact......The EFSA Panel on Plant Health has delivered a pest risk assessment on the risk posed by Monilinia fructicola to the EU territory and has identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism. The Panel has also analysed...... in the endangered area is estimated to be moderate. Neither additional cultural measures nor increased fungicide treatments would be needed to control of brown rot in the orchard after the introduction of M. fructicola....

  9. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  10. Software Supportability Risk Assessment in OT&E (Operational Test and Evaluation): An Evaluation of Risk Methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-08-31

    DISTRIBUTION: UNIMITED) ELC 0 AUUST 31, M94 Wd/A 8 4 496-TR wwvw WW CORPORATION 1801 RANDOLPH ROAD. S.E * ALSUQUERQUE. NEW MEXICO 87106 *(505) 848-5=0...Road, S.E., Albuquerque, New Mexico , 87106, to the Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center, Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico , 87117. This...metrics described in section 3.4 should be reported in a storyboard fashion. This technique would act as a summary of the ri.sk assessment process

  11. Comparative Analysis and Evaluation of Existing Risk Management Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this article lies on the specific features of the existing software packages for risk management differentiating three categories. Representative for these categories we consider the Crystal Ball, Haufe Risikomanager and MIS - Risk Management solutions, outlining the strenghts and weaknesses in a comparative analysis.

  12. SUMMARY OF A COMPANY RISK INDICATORS NECESSARY FOR ITS EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashkatov V. V.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the concept and essence of entre-preneurial risk; we have also given the views of vari-ous scientists and economists to determine the essential content of the category of “business risk”. The order of business risk assessment on the example of Urupskiy company has been shown

  13. Clinical fracture risk evaluated by hierarchical agglomerative clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Christian; Eiken, P; Vestergaard, P

    2017-01-01

    profiles. INTRODUCTION: The purposes of this study were to establish and quantify patient clusters of high, average and low fracture risk using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm. METHODS: Regional and national Danish patient data on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, medication...... containing less than 250 subjects. Clusters were identified as high, average or low fracture risk based on bone mineral density (BMD) characteristics. Cluster-based descriptive statistics and relative Z-scores for variable means were computed. RESULTS: Ten thousand seven hundred seventy-five women were...... as low fracture risk with high to very high BMD. A mean age of 60 years was the earliest that allowed for separation of high-risk clusters. DXA scan results could identify high-risk subjects with different antiresorptive treatment compliance levels based on similarities and differences in lumbar spine...

  14. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTs) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W.E. (Science Applications International Corp., Columbus, OH (USA))

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks which are associated with allowed outage times (AOTs), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. The report furthermore describes criteria considerations in determining the acceptability of calculated AOT risks, and discusses the merits of relative risk criteria versus absolute risk criteria. The detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including uncertainty considerations are also discussed. The report also describes the proper ways that risks from multiple AOTs should be considered so that risks are properly accumulated from proposed multiple AOT changes, but are not double-counted. Generally, average AOT risks which include the frequency of occurrence of the AOT need to be accumulated but single downtime risks don't since they apply to individual AOTs. 8 refs., 22 tabs.

  15. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors among veterinary ultrasonographers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Elissa; Hansen, Chad; Gilkey, David; Patil, Anuja; Bachand, Annette; Rosecrance, John; Douphrate, David

    2012-01-01

    Between 65% and 91% of human-patient sonographers report musculoskeletal symptoms related to their work activities. Ergonomic risk factors associated with musculoskeletal symptoms and musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) include force, repetition, and awkward postures of the upper extremities. We hypothesized that veterinary sonographers experience similar risk factor exposures as their colleagues in human-patient sonography, and that work-related exposures may lead to similar prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms and disorders. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration and Society of Diagnostic Medical Sonography published MSD prevention guidelines in 2003. Similar guidance for sonographers examining animal patients does not exist. This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms among veterinary sonographers and identify reported risk factors. A 59-item survey questionnaire was administered via email to veterinary specialists likely to perform ultrasound. Musculoskeletal pain related to performing ultrasound exams was reported by 62% of the respondents. Musculoskeletal symptoms were significantly associated with female gender (odds ratio [OR], 4.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.04-10.19), age (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.10), previous work-related trauma (OR, 6.86; 95% CI, 1.71, 27.40), not consistently using a normal height chair (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.19, 5.80), and 15°-45° abduction of shoulder (OR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.11, 4.92) . It was concluded that the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms among veterinary sonographers was similar to that occurring in human-patient sonographers. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  17. Evaluation of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Golmirzaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD is one of the most common psychiatric disorders among children. The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors for ADHD in children. Method. In this case-control study, 404 children between 4 and 11 years old were selected by cluster sampling method from preschool children (208 patients as cases and 196 controls. All the participants were interviewed by a child and adolescent psychiatrist to survey risk factors of ADHD. Results. Among cases, 59.3% of children were boys and 38.4% were girls, which is different to that in control group with 40.7% boys and 61.6% girls. The chi-square showed statistically significance (P value < 0.0001. The other significant factors by chi-square were fathers' somatic or psychiatric disease (P value < 0.0001, history of trauma and accident during pregnancy (P value = 0.039, abortion proceeds (P value < 0.0001, unintended pregnancy (P value < 0.0001, and history of head trauma (P value < 0.0001. Conclusions. Findings of our study suggest that maternal and paternal adverse events were associated with ADHD symptoms, but breast feeding is a protective factor.

  18. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  19. Feature Selection for Bayesian Evaluation of Trauma Death Risk

    CERN Document Server

    Jakaite, L

    2008-01-01

    In the last year more than 70,000 people have been brought to the UK hospitals with serious injuries. Each time a clinician has to urgently take a patient through a screening procedure to make a reliable decision on the trauma treatment. Typically, such procedure comprises around 20 tests; however the condition of a trauma patient remains very difficult to be tested properly. What happens if these tests are ambiguously interpreted, and information about the severity of the injury will come misleading? The mistake in a decision can be fatal: using a mild treatment can put a patient at risk of dying from posttraumatic shock, while using an overtreatment can also cause death. How can we reduce the risk of the death caused by unreliable decisions? It has been shown that probabilistic reasoning, based on the Bayesian methodology of averaging over decision models, allows clinicians to evaluate the uncertainty in decision making. Based on this methodology, in this paper we aim at selecting the most important screeni...

  20. Evaluation of risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus in medical students using Indian diabetes risk score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pranita Ashok

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to World Health Organisation, type 2 diabetes mellitus [type 2 D. M] has recently escalated in all age groups and is now being identified in younger age groups. This underscores the need for mass awareness and screening programs to detect diabetes at an early stage. For this purpose we have used a simplified Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS for prediction of diabetes in undergraduate medical students. Objectives: To screen and to identify 1st MBBS students at risk for developing type 2 D. M using IDRS. Materials and Methods : 261 undergraduates (1st MBBS students were scored using IDRS which includes age, family history of diabetes, exercise status, and waist circumference. After scoring them, we assessed random capillary blood glucose (RCBG in students with high IDRS score. Students with RCBG ≥ 113 mg/dl are followed for definitive tests for diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes. Results and Conclusion: We have assessed 261 students till now. It was observed that 5%, 55%, and 38% students in High, Moderate, and Low risk group, respectively, for developing type 2 D. M. The mean abdominal obesity in high risk students was 101.95 ± 5.76 as compared to 79.17 ± 11.08 in moderate and low risk students (P 113 mg/dl in which one student found to have prediabetic. Conclusion: This underscores the need for further investigations to detect diabetes at an early stage and to overcome the disease burden of diabetes in future. Prevention of obesity and promotion of physical activity have to be the future plan of action which can be suggested in the form of regular exercise and diet planning for the students as part of an integrated approach.

  1. Volatility Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Zhiguang Wang

    2009-01-01

    Classical capital asset pricing theory tells us that riskaverse investors would require higher returns to compensate for higher risk on an investment. One type of risk is price (return) risk, which reflects uncertainty in the price level and is measured by the volatility (standard deviation) of asset returns. Volatility itself is also known to be random and hence is perceived as another type of risk. Investors can bear price risk in exchange for a higher return. But are investors willing to p...

  2. Evaluation of EU Risk assessments Existing Chemicals (EC Regulation 793/93)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodar CWM; Berthault F; Bruijn JHM de; Leeuwen CJ van; Pronk MEJ; Vermeire TG; CSR

    2002-01-01

    An evaluation was performed on the first group (41) of completed risk assessments for chemicals of the EU priority lists (Existing Chemicals; EC Regulation 793/93). The evaluation focussed on the conclusions of the risk assessments. The EU risk assessment process detected a high number of substance

  3. DESIGNING A HYBRID INTELLIGENT MINING SYSTEM FOR CREDIT RISK EVALUATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this study,a novel hybrid intelligent mining system integrating rough sets theory and support vector machines is developed to extract efficiently association rules from original information table for credit risk evaluation and analysis.In the proposed hybrid intelligent system,support vector machines are used as a tool to extract typical features and filter its noise,which are different from the previous studies where rough sets were only used as a preprocessor for support vector machines.Such an approach could reduce the information table and generate the final knowledge from the reduced information table by rough sets.Therefore,the proposed hybrid intelligent system overcomes the diffi-culty of extracting rules from a trained support vector machine classifier and possesses the robustness which is lacking for rough-set-based approaches.In addition,the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid intelligent system is illustrated with two real-world credit datasets.

  4. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  5. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  6. Evaluation of bullying in persons with different risk for psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasić Jelena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emerging research suggests that being exposed to bullying during childhood can increase the risk of psychotic experiences in adulthood. Aggressive peer relations among adolescents are more frequent in boys, both for being victims or perpetrators. Aim: To evaluate whether bullying was more prevalent among Serbian clinical population of patients with psychosis in comparison to their healthy siblings and controls, and to analyze gender differences regarding bullying. Material and methods: This cross-sectional study evaluated schizophrenia spectrum patients (n = 52, age = 29.3 ± 5.9 yrs, in remission, illness duration <10 yrs, their healthy siblings (n = 55, age = 28.6 ± 6.8 yrs and controls (n=50, age=25.3±1.5 yrs. The subjects fulfilled the bullying questionnaire, five item self-rating scale. Descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney nonparametric test were used to analyze the data. Results: Compared to their healthy siblings, the patients were more likely to report that they were bullied (patients: 7.0 ± 3.5, siblings: 5.2 ± 2.0, p = 0.000, but patients also bullied others more (patients: 1.4 ± 0.8, siblings: 1.1 ± 0.4, p = 0.02. Comparing the group of patients and controls, we did not find statistically significant difference in any category. The male gender brings higher risk of being physically bullied which has been proven for all examined groups (patients- p = 0.03, controls and siblings- p = 0.00. Conclusion: Aggressive peer relations possibly contribute to the evolution of psychosis, as they were more prevalent in patients in comparison to their healthy siblings, particularly in males. Improved prevention of bullying and use of treatments against its psychological consequences might be one of the possible methods to ameliorate the course of psychosis.

  7. Evaluating and mitigating fracture risk in established rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Matthew B; Saag, Kenneth G

    2015-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis are predisposed to systemic bone loss, and they are at an increased risk of fractures. Although there are similarities in the patient demographics between rheumatoid arthritis patients and the general population of osteoporosis patients, there are factors, particularly the use of glucocorticoids, which are specific to rheumatoid arthritis. These factors can lead to an increased risk of bone loss and fracture. Given that fractures are often very debilitating, especially in elderly patients, it is of paramount importance for the practicing rheumatologist to be aware of ways to reduce the risk of fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review discusses currently available modalities for fracture risk assessment as well as pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions available to treat and prevent bone loss in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  8. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  9. Evaluating Credit Risk Management at Agribank Tu Liem

    OpenAIRE

    Pham, Tien

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, bad debts have started to become a huge threat for Vietnamese economic growth. As a result of global economic crisis and unfavorable conditions in Vietnam, the bad debt ratio of the commissioning bank has also become alarming, and the bank has struggled in controlling the credit risk. The aim of this research is to assess the effectiveness of the commissioning bank’s credit risk management based on a comprehensive theoretical framework. Moreover, the readers will learn mo...

  10. Evaluation of the quality of life and risk of suicide

    OpenAIRE

    Verônica de Medeiros Alves; Leilane Camila Ferreira de Lima Francisco; Flaviane Maria Pereira Belo; Valfrido Leão de-Melo-Neto; Vinicius Gomes Barros; Antonio E Nardi

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic profiles, suicidal ideation, the presence of mental disorders and the quality of life of patients using mental health services in Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in family health units and the Psychosocial Attention Center. The sample included 202 mental disorder patients with a risk of suicide attempts, 207 mental disorder patients without a risk of suicide attempts and 196 controls. This study used an identification...

  11. Evaluation of risk management status for Croatian logistic operators

    OpenAIRE

    Božić, Diana; Rogić, Kristijan; Stanković, Ratko

    2010-01-01

    Understanding organisational risks makes possible to control them and to change them into organisational strengths. Being known as “measure of uncertainty” in the business process, the risk is the uncertainty of achieving the organizational objectives. It may involve positive or negative consequences. There is a level of uncertainty in every supply chain while operating transportation and warehousing, positioning on the market, developing customer support, reducing cycle times or cutting cost...

  12. Evaluation of Risk Factors for Hepatosteatosis in Gall Stone Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Osman Anıl Savaş; Muhammed Zübeyr Üçüncü; Özer Bahri

    2015-01-01

    Aim: It has been reported that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was associated with cholecystectomy and cholecystectomy that may be a risk factor for the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. In this sense, we studied the other risk factors for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with cholelythiasis. Methods: In this study, we included 204 consecutive patients who underwent elective cholecystectomy between June 2011 and January 2014 due to ch...

  13. Researches on Risk Evaluation of Green Agro-product Closed Supply Chain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Closed supply chain is a superior form of management model of chain supply and an effective means of improving the modernization of agro-product circulation. Based on the research results of the current literatures on supply chain risk and agro-product supply chain, related subjects of the agro-product closed supply chain involving production, management and consumption are studied and analyzed and the primary risking factors in the supply chain system are classified as environmental risk, system risk, information risk, management risk and quality risk. Risk of agro-product closed supply chain is evaluated by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the values are acquired. The result shows that risk of agro-product closed supply chain is moderate with relatively high risk, which basically accords with the present actual situations. It can be seen from the index weights of various levels that the key first-level indices influencing the risks are system risk, information risk, quality and safety risk and the key second-level are the coordinating and controlling ability of core enterprises, the implementation of information traceability and the construction of quality safety system. Therefore, risk of agro-product closed supply chain should be reduced by taking prevention and controlling measures mainly from these aspects.

  14. Evaluation of the quality of life and risk of suicide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verônica de Medeiros Alves

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic profiles, suicidal ideation, the presence of mental disorders and the quality of life of patients using mental health services in Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in family health units and the Psychosocial Attention Center. The sample included 202 mental disorder patients with a risk of suicide attempts, 207 mental disorder patients without a risk of suicide attempts and 196 controls. This study used an identification questionnaire, the abbreviated World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire, Beck‘s Suicidal Ideation Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: Patients who had a mental disorder and a risk of suicide attempts tended to be single, had less education and lower family income, were not working and showed lower scores in quality of life domains; 73 of these patients had suicidal ideation in the previous week. Depressive disorders, manic episodes, hypomanic episodes, social phobias, obsessive compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychotic syndromes and generalized anxiety disorder were more frequent and statistically significant for patients at risk for suicide attempts. CONCLUSION: The management of patients with a risk of suicide attempts must focus on individual patients because this risk is directly linked to changes in quality of life and the improvement of these patients’ prognosis.

  15. [From risk charts to guidelines: tools for evaluation and management of cardiovascular risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castello, Cristina; Colivicchi, Furio; Sclavo, Mariagrazia; Uguccioni, Massimo; Ebert, Alberto Genovesi; Abrignani, Maurizio G; Faggiano, Pompilio; Riccio, Carmine

    2006-03-01

    Despite the wide improvement of diagnostic techniques and the introduction of effective pharmacological and instrumental therapeutic strategies aimed to the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, their incidence and lethality are still elevated, with economic implications increasingly less sustainable by the public medical systems. The modern practice of cardiovascular prevention requires, thus, that diagnostic and therapeutic interventions, both at population level and on the single patient, should be more and more precise, effective, and appropriate. From this point of view, a correct global cardiovascular risk stratification assumes a preponderant relevance, in order to allow an adequate therapeutical response. For this purpose several work instruments, as risk charts and guidelines, namely dedicated to arterial hypertension and dyslipidemias, were developed and offered to clinicians interested in cardiovascular prevention. The aim of this review is to illustrate, in synthesis, those instruments, aiming to facilitate their implementation, thus reducing the actual gap between theoretical indications and the real world.

  16. Pest risk assessment of Monilinia fructicola for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The EFSA Panel on Plant Health has delivered a pest risk assessment on the risk posed by Monilinia fructicola to the EU territory and has identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism. The Panel has also analysed t...

  17. Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Černák, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The Master's Thesis deals with the topic of risk management in a non-financial company. The goal of this Thesis is to create a framework for review of risk management process and to practically apply it in a case study. Objectives of the theoretical parts are: stating the reasons for risk management in non-financial companies, addressing the main parts of risk management and providing guidance for review of risk management process. A special attention is paid to financial risks. The practical...

  18. Evaluation of Parkinson disease risk variants as expression-QTLs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne C Latourelle

    Full Text Available The recent Parkinson Disease GWAS Consortium meta-analysis and replication study reports association at several previously confirmed risk loci SNCA, MAPT, GAK/DGKQ, and HLA and identified a novel risk locus at RIT2. To further explore functional consequences of these associations, we investigated modification of gene expression in prefrontal cortex brain samples of pathologically confirmed PD cases (N = 26 and controls (N = 24 by 67 associated SNPs in these 5 loci. Association between the eSNPs and expression was evaluated using a 2-degrees of freedom test of both association and difference in association between cases and controls, adjusted for relevant covariates. SNPs at each of the 5 loci were tested for cis-acting effects on all probes within 250 kb of each locus. Trans-effects of the SNPs on the 39,122 probes passing all QC on the microarray were also examined. From the analysis of cis-acting SNP effects, several SNPs in the MAPT region show significant association to multiple nearby probes, including two strongly correlated probes targeting the gene LOC644246 and the duplicated genes LRRC37A and LRRC37A2, and a third uncorrelated probe targeting the gene DCAKD. Significant cis-associations were also observed between SNPs and two probes targeting genes in the HLA region on chromosome 6. Expanding the association study to examine trans effects revealed an additional 23 SNP-probe associations reaching statistical significance (p<2.8 × 10(-8 including SNPs from the SNCA, MAPT and RIT2 regions. These findings provide additional context for the interpretation of PD associated SNPs identified in recent GWAS as well as potential insight into the mechanisms underlying the observed SNP associations.

  19. Evaluation of Iranian College Students’ Awareness about Infertility Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaee

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background With technological developments, creation of new industries, and changing human behavior and lifestyles, several new infertility risk factors (IRFs are discovered annually. Although many studies have been conducted on IRFs, no research has yet been carried out on the awareness of Iranian college students about the many IRFs. Objectives Since prevention of infertility in a society is directly related to awareness about infertility, in the present study the awareness of male and female college students about IRFs was evaluated and compared at Jami institute of technology. Patients and Methods For this purpose, a survey questionnaire containing 24 factors related to IRFs was developed and 123 college students from Jami institute of technology completed it. All data was extracted from these questionnaires and was statistically analyzed. Results The results showed that both male and female participants had moderate awareness (55.86% about IRFs. Female participants had significantly more awareness about the effects of cell phone radiation, fast food, and stress in comparison with their male counterparts. However, significantly higher numbers of male participants knew that smoking has negative effects on fertility. Generally, the awareness of females about IRFs was greater than that of males (59.46% vs. 52.27%. Conclusions College students have a considerable knowledge gap relating to infertility risk factors, which could be due to the lack of a suitable module on IRFs in the curricula of Iranian universities. Generally, females have more awareness than males. The greatest awareness about IRFs concerned smoking, which may result from widespread media coverage.

  20. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Sadatmahalleh, Shahideh Jahanian; Akhoond, Mohammad Reza; Talebi, Mehrak

    2016-01-01

    Background Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases) and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group). Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results Gravidity [odds ratio (OR): 0.8, confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01), family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, Pgalactorrhea (OR: 2.3, CI: 1.5-3.5, P=0.01), history of pelvic surgery (OR: 1.9, CI: 1.3-2.7, P0.05). Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many women and is associated with the significant morbidity. In this study, we built a prediction model which can be used to predict the risk of endometriosis in infertile women. PMID:27123195

  1. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahnaz Ashrafi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group. Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results: Gravidity [odds ratio (OR: 0.8, confidence interval (CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01, family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, P0.05. Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion: Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many women and is associated with the significant morbidity. In this study, we built a prediction model which can be used to predict the risk of endometriosis in infertile women.

  2. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C; Chien, Tsair-Wei

    2016-01-22

    Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk.

  3. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  4. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment...

  5. Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimy Fluyau

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundKratom (Mitragyna speciosa is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules. Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug’s effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world.MethodsLiterature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom (M. speciosa.ResultsData analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and

  6. Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluyau, Dimy; Revadigar, Neelambika

    2017-01-01

    Kratom (Mitragyna speciosa) is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules). Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug's effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world. Literature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom (M. speciosa). Data analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and anorectic. However, kratom can cause

  7. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  8. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  9. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  10. Risk Love.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asch, Peter; Quandt, Richard E.

    1990-01-01

    Notes that attitudes toward risk comprise an important topic in economics courses, whereas risk love receives limited attention, perhaps because of the lack of clear and appealing examples for teaching. Provides a definition for the term risk love and includes illustrations drawn from empirical studies of racetrack betting for teaching this…

  11. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  12. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  13. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Applied in the Real Estate Investment Risks Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    ML(Zhang Minli), Zhang; Wp(Yang Wenpo), Yang

    Real estate investment is a high-risk and high returned of economic activity, the key of real estate analysis is the identification of their types of investment risk and the risk of different types of effective prevention. But, as the financial crisis sweeping the world, the real estate industry also faces enormous risks, how effective and correct evaluation of real estate investment risks becomes the multitudinous scholar concern[1]. In this paper, real estate investment risks were summarized and analyzed, and comparative analysis method is discussed and finally presented fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, not only in theory has the advantages of science, in the application also has the reliability, for real estate investment risk assessment provides an effective means for investors in real estate investing guidance on risk factors and forecasts.

  14. Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱淑珍; 朱静怡

    2003-01-01

    Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

  15. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making for Evaluating Aggregate Risk in Green Manufacturing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hua; CHEN Weiping; KANG Zhixin; NGAI Tungwai; LI Yuanyuan

    2005-01-01

    Industrial risk and the diversification of risk types both increase with industrial development. Many uncertain factors and high risk are inherent in the implementation of new green manufacturing methods. Because of the shortage of successful examples and complete and certain knowledge, decision-making methods using probabilities to represent risk, which need many examples, cannot be used to evaluate risk in the implementation of green manufacturing projects. Therefore, a fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making (FMADM) method was developed with a three-level hierarchical decision-making model to evaluate the aggregate risk for green manufacturing projects. A case study shows that the hierarchical decision-making model of the aggregate risk and the FMADM method effectively reflect the characteristics of the risk in green manufacturing projects.

  16. Assessing risk propensity in American soldiers: preliminary reliability and validity of the Evaluation of Risks (EVAR) scale--English version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killgore, William D S; Vo, Alexander H; Castro, Carl A; Hoge, Charles W

    2006-03-01

    Risk-taking propensity is a critical component of judgment and decision-making in military operations. The Evaluation of Risks scale (EVAR) was recently developed to measure state and trait aspects of risk proneness. The scale, however, was psychometrically normed in French and no data are available for the English translation. We administered the English version of the EVAR to 165 U.S. soldiers to obtain reliability, validity, and normative data for English-speaking respondents. Confirmatory factor analysis suggested that the factor structure of the English EVAR differs from that obtained in the French studies. Instead, a three-factor solution, including recklessness/impulsivity, self-confidence, and need for control, emerged. Internal consistency was comparable to the French version. EVAR scores correlated with age, military rank, and years of service, and discriminated soldiers with histories of high-risk behavior. The data support the reliability and validity of the English version of the EVAR for evaluating risk propensity in U.S. soldiers.

  17. Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gang, Chen

    IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

  18. Qualitative risk evaluation of environmental restoration programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, S.C.

    1996-05-01

    This report documents the evaluation of risks associated with environmental restoration activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory using two tools supplied by DOE to provide a consistent set of risk estimates across the DOE complex: Risk Data Sheets (RDS) and Relative Risk Ranking. The tools are described, the process taken characterized, results provided and discussed. The two approaches are compared and recommendations provided for continuing improvement of the process.

  19. R & D project's investment evaluation based on real option and its value at risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Yu-zhi(沈玉志); ZHOU Xiao-fei(周效飞)

    2003-01-01

    The authors looked upon it as real options and applied the VaR(Value at Risk) method to the evaluation of its risk value based on the analysis of R & D project investment characteristics,and advanced the evaluation model of the project's return and risk according to financial theories.This paper expounded the two-dimension evaluation model of project,and divided it into five decision-making regions.

  20. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  1. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  2. Relative risk site evaluations for Yakima Training Center

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, R.M.; Whelan, G.

    1996-11-01

    All 20 U.S. Army Yakima Training Center (YTC) sites evaluated were given a `low` relative risk. At Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 22, a `minimum` soils contaminant hazard factor was assigned even though 6,700 mg/kg TPH-diesel was found in surface soil. SWMU 22 is physically located on top of and with the fence surrounding Area of Concern (AOC) 4. Because the diesel is most likely associated with AOC 4, and plans are to clean up AOC 4, any further actions regarding these contaminated soils should be addressed as part of the planned actions for AOC 4. Contaminant hazard factors of `moderate` were assigned to the soil pathway for SWMUs 4 and 7 because dieldrin and arsenic, respectively, were found in surface soil samples at concentrations exceeding standards. A `moderate` contaminant hazard factor was also assigned to the sediment pathway for AOC 1 because arsenic detected in sediments in `Larry`s Swimming Pool` exceeded the standard. All other contaminant hazard factors were rated as minimal. The receptor factor for all sites and pathways was rated `limited,` except for SWMU 54 in which the groundwater receptor factor was rated `potential.` A `potential` rating was assigned to the groundwater pathway at this site to be conservative. The site is located on the south side of the syncline axis where the unconfined aquifer may be present and there are no monitoring wells at the site to confirm or deny the presence of groundwater contamination.

  3. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  4. Economic evaluation studies of obstetric interventions in high risk pregnancies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vijgen, S.M.C.

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis we performed comparative costs and cost-effectiveness analyses for several clinical dilemmas in high risk pregnancies or deliveries, and explored practical and methodological issues in such research and to discuss the context of evidence-based policy making in relation to complex dile

  5. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  6. Risk in Enterprise Cloud Computing: Re-Evaluated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funmilayo, Bolonduro, R.

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative study was conducted to get the perspectives of IT experts about risks in enterprise cloud computing. In businesses, these IT experts are often not in positions to prioritize business needs. The business experts commonly known as business managers mostly determine an organization's business needs. Even if an IT expert classified a…

  7. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  8. A risk evaluation for the fuel retrieval sub-project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlisle, B.S.

    1996-10-11

    This study reviews the technical, schedule and budget baselines of the sub-project to assure all significant issues have been identified on the sub-project issues management list. The issue resolution dates are identified and resolution plans established. Those issues that could adversely impact procurement activities have been uniquely identified on the list and a risk assessment completed.

  9. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  10. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  11. Evaluation of occupational genotoxic risk in a Brazilian hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharbel Weidner Maluf

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Many therapeutic, diagnostic and prophylactic procedures used in hospitals are of potential genetic risk. An evaluation was made of genotoxic occupational risk in 42 workers from the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, who had been occupationally exposed to lead (solder, ethylene oxide (sterilization area, antineoplastic drugs (nurses and pharmacists or ionizing radiation. They were compared with 42 unexposed individuals. There was an increase in the frequency of binucleated cytochalasin-blocked lymphocytes with micronuclei, though it was not significant (P = 0.058. The groups exposed to antineoplastic drugs and radiation had a significant increase in micronuclei frequency (P = 0.038 and P = 0.022, respectively. The high frequencies of dicentric bridges suggest the action of clastogenics in these two groups. These results suggest that the safety procedures adopted were very important to protect workers from exposure to mutagenic agents and should be improved in the radiological and chemotherapeutical areas.Vários procedimentos terapêuticos, diagnósticos e profiláticos usados em hospitais apresentam um risco genético. Para avaliar o risco genotóxico ocupacional, 42 trabalhadores do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil, ocupacionalmente expostos a chumbo (uso de soldas, óxido de etileno (área de esterilização, drogas antineoplásicas (enfermeiros e farmacêuticos e radiação ionizante foram comparados com 42 indivíduos não expostos. A análise de linfócitos binucleados apresentou um aumento estatisticamente não significativo (P = 0.058 na freqüência de micronúcleos. Quando analisados separadamente, os grupos expostos a drogas antineoplásicas e radiação ionizante apresentaram um aumento estatisticamente significativo (P = 0.038 e P = 0.0217, respectivamente na freqüência de micronúcleos. As freqüências de pontes dicêntricas e anomalias de fuso sugerem a ação de clastogênicos nestes dois

  12. User Perceptions and Reactions to an Online Cancer Risk Assessment Tool: a Process Evaluation of Cancer Risk Check.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovick, Shelly R; Bevers, Therese B; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Kim, Stephanie; Dailey, Phokeng M; Jones, Lovell A; Peterson, Susan K

    2017-03-01

    Online cancer risk assessment tools, which provide personalized cancer information and recommendations based on personal data input by users, are a promising cancer education approach; however, few tools have been evaluated. A randomized controlled study was conducted to compare user impressions of one tool, Cancer Risk Check (CRC), to non-personalized educational information delivered online as series of self-advancing slides (the control). CRC users (N = 1452) rated the tool to be as interesting as the control (p > .05), but users were more likely to report that the information was difficult to understand and not applicable to them (p visual and graphical elements; therefore, CRC was compared to a text-based control (online PDF file) post hoc. CRC users rated the information to be more interesting, less difficult to understand, and better able to hold their attention (p visual presentation of risk is critical to tool success.

  13. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana [Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Jednak, Sandra, E-mail: sjednak@fon.bg.ac.rs [Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Benkovic, Sladana [Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Jove Ilica 154, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Poznanic, Vladimir [Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Kamenicka 6, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia)

    2011-10-15

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: > Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. > Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. > Risk analysis was done using FMEA. > Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. > The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  14. Development and Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) represent a potential resource for etiological and treatment research. GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes have been especially successful. To translate this success into a research tool, we developed and tested a “genetic risk score” (GRS) that summarizes an individual’s genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods Different GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes report different sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as the best genomic markers of obesity risk. Therefore, we applied a 3-stage approach that pooled results from multiple GWAS to select SNPs to include in our GRS: The 3 stages are (1) Extraction. SNPs with evidence of association are compiled from published GWAS; (2) Clustering. SNPs are grouped according to patterns of linkage disequilibrium; (3) Selection. Tag SNPs are selected from clusters that meet specific criteria. We applied this 3-stage approach to results from 16 GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes in European-descent samples to create a GRS. We then tested the GRS in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities (ARIC) Study cohort (N=10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Results Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites (for BMI, r=0.13, p<1×10−30; for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.57 [95% CI 0.55–0.58]). The GRS improved prediction of obesity (as measured by delta-AUC and integrated discrimination index) when added to models that included demographic and geographic information. FTO- and MC4R-linked SNPs, and a non-genetic risk assessment consisting of a socioeconomic index (p<0.01 for all comparisons). The GRS also predicted increased mortality risk over 17 years of follow-up. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. Conclusions The obesity GRS derived using our 3-stage approach is not useful for clinical risk prediction, but

  15. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  16. [Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.

  17. Identifying and evaluating E-procurement in supply chain risk by Fuzzy MADM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Memarzade

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available E-procurement risks has emerged as an important issue for researchers and practitioners because mitigating supply chain risk helps improve firms’ as well as supply chains’ performance. E-marketplaces have been steadily growing and there have been significant interest in e-business research. There are different risks and uncertainties involved with E-marketplaces, which jeopardizes the sector but we have had a large amount of hype and the business still continue to grow. The primary aim of this study is to identify E-procurement risks and evaluate them using a fuzzy AHP framework. We contribute E-procurement risk by identifying 13 critical criteria and determine four important ones including the extent of acceptable information, interrelationship risk, lack of honesty in relationships and product quality and safety for evaluating suppliers’ risk.

  18. Risk Evaluation of Qinghai–Tibet Power Grid Interconnection Project for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunbin Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project is the first power transmission project with the highest altitude, longest transmission lines, longest distance running across the plateau frozen ground, and highest iron tower in the world. The risk evaluation on it can identify the overall risk level and key risk factors, which can reduce risk-induced loss and promote sustainable construction. In this paper, the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project was evaluated by employing a matter-element extension model under a fuzzy environment. After building the risk evaluation index system, the performances and weights of criteria were qualitatively judged by three groups of experts in different fields, and then the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project was rated by employing matter-element extension model. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key risk criteria. The empirical results indicate the risk of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project belongs to the “stronger” grade, tending to the “strongest” grade. “Social stability risk”, “altitude sickness seizure risk”, “permafrost-induced risk”, “severe weather-induced risk”, and “ecological destruction risk” are key sub-criteria, which should be paid more attention to when taking risk management measures. Finally, some countermeasures for key risks of the Qinghai–Tibet power grid interconnection project were given. The findings in this paper can provide references for engineering managers and related stakeholders.

  19. Evaluation of tsunami risk in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zahibo

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to give the preliminary estimates of the tsunami risks for the Lesser Antilles. We investigated the available data of the tsunamis in the French West Indies using the historical data and catalogue of the tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles. In total, twenty-four (24 tsunamis were recorded in this area for last 400 years; sixteen (16 events of the seismic origin, five (5 events of volcanic origin and three (3 events of unknown source. Most of the tsunamigenic earthquakes (13 occurred in the Caribbean, and three tsunamis were generated during far away earthquakes (near the coasts of Portugal and Costa Rica. The estimates of tsunami risk are based on a preliminary analysis of the seismicity of the Caribbean area and the historical data of tsunamis. In particular, we investigate the occurrence of historical extreme runup tsunami data on Guadeloupe, and these data are revised after a survey in Guadeloupe.

  20. Evaluating Damage Potential in Security Risk Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Weintraub

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A Continuous Monitoring System (CMS model is presented, having new improved capabilities. The system is based on the actual real-time configuration of the system. Existing risk scoring models assume damage potential is estimated by systems' owner, thus rejecting the information relying in the technological configuration. The assumption underlying this research is based on users' ability to estimate business impacts relating to systems' external interfaces which they use regularly in their business activities, but are unable to assess business impacts relating to internal technological components. According to the proposed model systems' damage potential is calculated using technical information on systems' components using a directed graph. The graph is incorporated into the Common Vulnerability Scoring Systems' (CVSS algorithm to produce risk scoring measures. Framework presentation includes system design, damage potential scoring algorithm design and an illustration of scoring computations.

  1. First-passage and risk evaluation under stochastic volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masoliver, Jaume; Perelló, Josep

    2009-07-01

    We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and the hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting properties, the nonexistence of a mean-first-passage time. One significant result is the evidence of extreme deviations—which implies a high risk of default—when certain dimensionless parameter, related to the strength of the volatility fluctuations, increases. We confront the model with empirical daily data and we observe that it is able to capture a very broad domain of the hitting probability. We believe that this may provide an effective tool for risk control which can be readily applicable to real markets both for portfolio management and trading strategies.

  2. Waivered Recruits: An Evaluation of Their Performance and Attrition Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    school degree graduate (HSDG) Nontraditional HSDGa Tier II Tier III a. Nontraditional HSDGs have a homeschool or adult education diploma, or have...characteristics that affect their attrition risk. We also 11. While a reduction in force may not be considered a "good" thing, it is certainly legitimate...race/ethnicity, marital status, number of children , AFQT score, months spent in DEP, education, gender, and FY of accession. We also control for

  3. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    OpenAIRE

    Stefano Elia; Alessio Santantonio

    2016-01-01

    The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply) system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between F...

  4. Dose and risk evaluation in digital mammography using computer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de, E-mail: scorrea@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: emonteiro@nuclear.ufrj.b [Centro Universitario Estadual da Zona Oeste (CCMAT/UEZO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Humberto de Oliveira, E-mail: hbetorj@gmail.co [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro IF/UFRJ, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Magalhaes, Sarah Braga, E-mail: ademir@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.b, E-mail: smagalhaes@nuclear.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

    2010-07-01

    Digital mammography has been introduced in several countries in the last years. The new technology requires new optimising methods considering for instance the increased possibility of changing the absorbed dose, mainly in modern mammographic systems that allow the operator to choose the beam quality by varying the tube voltage, and filter and target materials. In this work, the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used in order to investigate how the average glandular dose vary with tube voltage (23-32 kV) and anode-filter combination (Mo-Mo,Mo-Rh and Rh-Rh) in digital mammographic examinations. Furthermore, the risk of breast cancer incidence attributable to mammography exams was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR) VII Committee Report. The results show that the risk of breast cancer incidence in women younger than 30 years of age tends to decrease significantly using Rh-Rh anode-filter combination and higher tube voltage. For women older than 50 years of age the variation of tube voltage, and anode-filter combination did not influence the risk values considerably. (author)

  5. Evaluating changes in driver behaviour: a risk profiling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Adrian B; Bliemer, Michiel C J; Greaves, Stephen P

    2015-02-01

    New road safety strategies continue to be devised by researchers and policy makers with pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) schemes gaining increasing attention. However, empirically measuring the effectiveness of these strategies is challenging due to the influence of the road environment and other factors external to the driver. The analysis presented here applies Temporal and Spatial Identifiers to control for the road environment and Driver Behaviour Profiles to provide a common measure of driving behaviour based on the risk of a casualty crash for assessing the effectiveness of a PAYD scheme on reducing driving risks. The results show that in many cases personalised feedback alone is sufficient to induce significant changes, but the largest reductions in risk are observed when drivers are also awarded a financial incentive to change behaviour. Importantly, the more frequent the exposure to the speeding information, the greater the magnitude of the change. However, the changes are disproportionately associated with those that were already safer drivers in the baseline period suggesting that some drivers may be predisposed to changing their behaviour. These results suggest that it would be beneficial to provide real-time or daily feedback on speeding behaviour in conjunction with a financial reward scheme, potentially as a component of insurance premiums. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Abrasive blasting agents: designing studies to evaluate relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbs, Ann; Greskevitch, Mark; Kuempel, Eileen; Suarez, Fernando; Toraason, Mark

    Workers exposed to respirable crystalline silica used in abrasive blasting are at increased risk of developing a debilitating and often fatal fibrotic lung disease called silicosis. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) recommends that silica sand be prohibited as abrasive blasting material and that less hazardous materials be used in blasting operations. However, data are needed on the relative risks associated with exposure to abrasive blasting materials other than silica. NIOSH has completed acute studies in rats (Hubbs et al., 2001; Porter et al., 2002). To provide dose-response data applicable to making recommendation for occupational exposure limits, NIOSH has collaborated with the National Toxicology Program (NTP) to design longer term studies with silica substitutes. For risk assessment purposes, selected doses will include concentrations that are relevant to human exposures. Rat lung burdens achieved should be comparable to those estimated in humans with working lifetime exposures, even if this results in "overloading" doses in rats. To quantify both dose and response, retained particle burdens in the lungs and lung-associated lymph nodes will be measured, as well as biochemical and pathological indices of pulmonary response. This design will facilitate assessment of the pulmonary fibrogenic potential of inhaled abrasive blasting agents at occupationally relevant concentrations.

  7. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Risk Management; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Scofield, P.A. [Office of Environmental Compliance and Documentation (United States)

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  8. Combining risk-management and computational approaches for trustworthiness evaluation of socio-technical systems

    OpenAIRE

    Gol Mohammadi, N.; Bandyszak, T.; Goldsteen, A.; Kalogiros, C.; Weyer, T.; Moffie, M.; Nasser, B.; Surridge, M

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of existing software evaluation techniques reveals the need for evidence-based evaluation of systems’ trustworthiness. This paper aims at evaluating trustworthiness of socio-technical systems during design-time. Our approach combines two existing evaluation techniques: a computa-tional approach and a risk management approach. The risk-based approach identifies threats to trustworthiness on an abstract level. Computational ap-proaches are applied to evaluate the expected end-to-en...

  9. Evaluation of polygenic risks for narcolepsy and essential hypersomnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamasaki, Maria; Miyagawa, Taku; Toyoda, Hiromi; Khor, Seik-Soon; Liu, Xiaoxi; Kuwabara, Hitoshi; Kano, Yukiko; Shimada, Takafumi; Sugiyama, Toshiro; Nishida, Hisami; Sugaya, Nagisa; Tochigi, Mamoru; Otowa, Takeshi; Okazaki, Yuji; Kaiya, Hisanobu; Kawamura, Yoshiya; Miyashita, Akinori; Kuwano, Ryozo; Kasai, Kiyoto; Tanii, Hisashi; Sasaki, Tsukasa; Honda, Yutaka; Honda, Makoto; Tokunaga, Katsushi

    2016-10-01

    In humans, narcolepsy is a sleep disorder that is characterized by sleepiness, cataplexy and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep abnormalities. Essential hypersomnia (EHS) is another type of sleep disorder that is characterized by excessive daytime sleepiness without cataplexy. A human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II allele, HLA-DQB1*06:02, is a major genetic factor for narcolepsy. Almost all narcoleptic patients are carriers of this HLA allele, while 30-50% of EHS patients and 12% of all healthy individuals in Japan carry this allele. The pathogenesis of narcolepsy and EHS is thought to be partially shared. To evaluate the contribution of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to narcolepsy onset and to assess the common genetic background of narcolepsy and EHS, we conducted a polygenic analysis that included 393 narcoleptic patients, 38 EHS patients with HLA-DQB1*06:02, 119 EHS patients without HLA-DQB1*06:02 and 1582 healthy individuals. We also included 376 individuals with panic disorder and 213 individuals with autism to confirm whether the results were biased. Polygenic risks in narcolepsy were estimated to explain 58.1% (PHLA-DQB1*06:02=2.30 × 10(-48), Pwhole genome without HLA-DQB1*06:02=6.73 × 10(-2)) including HLA-DQB1*06:02 effects and 1.3% (Pwhole genome without HLA-DQB1*06:02=2.43 × 10(-2)) excluding HLA-DQB1*06:02 effects. The results also indicated that small-effect SNPs contributed to the development of narcolepsy. Reported susceptibility SNPs for narcolepsy in the Japanese population, CPT1B (carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1B), TRA@ (T-cell receptor alpha) and P2RY11 (purinergic receptor P2Y, G-protein coupled, 11), were found to explain 0.8% of narcolepsy onset (Pwhole genome without HLA-DQB1*06:02=9.74 × 10(-2)). EHS patients with HLA-DQB1*06:02 were estimated to have higher shared genetic background to narcoleptic patients than EHS patients without HLA-DQB1*06:02 even when the effects of HLA-DQB1*06:02 were excluded (EHS with HLA-DQB1

  10. The Risk Evaluation of the Implement for Enterprise E-Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Lin; ZHANG Jin-long; YANG Lan-rong

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, risk evaluation index system of electronic business is put forward for core manufactures. At the same time, risk evaluation method is established on the basis of fuzzy mathematics and grey theory, and its effectiveness and feasibility are tested in the practical example.

  11. 75 FR 76995 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-10

    ... established the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) in 1998 (63 FR 68782) to... HUMAN SERVICES National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR); NTP Workshop: Role of Environmental Chemicals in the Development of Diabetes and...

  12. 77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-09

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors... comment on NUREG-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power..., ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' DATES: Submit comments...

  13. 77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-06

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors... the Commission), issued a NUREG-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports...), Section 19.0 ``Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors.'' The NRC...

  14. Risk assessment of Gibberella circinata for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Panel on Plant Health was asked to provide a risk assessment for Gibberella circinata Nirenberg and O’Donnell, for the EU territory, and to identify and evaluate effectiveness of risk management options in reducing the risk posed by the organism. G. circinata is presently not listed in Counci...

  15. Credit Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica IOAN

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The bank is exposed to credit risk, the risk of not being able to recuperate the debtor claims as a result of the activity of granting loans to the clientele. Also, credit risk may manifest due to investments in other local and foreign credit institutions. Credit risk may be minimized through the careful evaluation of credit solicitors, through their monitoring along the duration of the loan and through the establishing of risk exposure limits, of significant risk margins as well as the acceptable balance between risk and profit.

  16. Evaluating the Framingham hypertension risk prediction model in young adults: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, April P; Lewis, Cora E; Jacobs, David R; Peralta, Carmen A; Steffen, Lyn M; Bower, Julie K; Person, Sharina D; Muntner, Paul

    2013-12-01

    A prediction model was developed in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to evaluate the short-term risk of hypertension. Our goal was to determine the predictive ability of the FHS hypertension model in a cohort of young adults advancing into middle age and compare it with the predictive ability of prehypertension and individual components of the FHS model. We studied 4388 participants, aged 18 to 30 years without hypertension at baseline, enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, who participated in 2 consecutive examinations occurring 5 years apart between the baseline (1985-1986) and year 25 examination (2010-2011). Weibull regression was used to assess the association of the FHS model overall, individual components of the FHS model, and prehypertension with incident hypertension. During the 25-year follow-up period, 1179 participants developed incident hypertension. The FHS hypertension model (c-index=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.85) performed well in discriminating those who did and did not develop hypertension and was better than prehypertension alone (c-index=0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73). The predicted risk from the FHS hypertension model was systematically lower than the observed hypertension incidence initially (χ(2)=249.4; Padults with a high risk for developing hypertension.

  17. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  18. Using Machine Learning Algorithms in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Sitar-Taut

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Even if Medicine and Computer Science seemapparently intangible domains, they collaborate each otherfor few decades. One of the faces of this cooperation is DataMining, a relative new and multidisciplinary field capable toextract valuable information from large sets of data. Despitethis fact, in cardiology related studies it was rarely used. Weassume that some data mining tools can be used as asubstitute for some complex, expensive, uncomfortable, timeconsuming, and sometimes dangerous medical examinations.This paper aims to show that cardiovascular diseases may bepredicted by classical risk factors analyzed and processed ina “non-invasive” way.

  19. Evaluation of Cases with Rabies Risk Presenting to Emergency Department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fevzi Yilmaz

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: All around the world 10-12 million people/year receive rabies prophylaxis. Rabies is an acute fatal central nervous system viral enfection. The virus can infect all warm-blooded animals and almost in all cases the enfection results with fatal encephalitis. The aim of this study is to determine the demographic characteristics of cases with rabies risk exposures and behind this to emphasise the significance of cooperation between the institutions to perform effective and accurate treatment. Material and Method: This study was performed with retrospective analysis of 1429 cases who attended to Emergency Department of Diyarbakir Goverment Hospital between January 2007-2010 for animal bites and exposures with the risk of rabies. Statistical analysis of data was performed SPSS V16 pocket programme. Data were defined as frequency and %. For statistical analysis Chi-Square and Fischer exact test was used. A value of P<0.05 was accepted statistically significant. Results: A total of 1055 (73.8% were male, 374 (26.2% were female and the mean age was 21.75 ± 16.9 (6 months-87 years. The major group in children was 6-11 years old and 651 (% 45.5 of the cases attended to hospital were under 18 years old. The vast majority (39.3% in adults were between 19-49 years. In our study 808 (56.5% of the cases  were bitten, 597 (41.8% of the cases  were scrabbled by the animal and 24 (1.7%of them  had indirect contact with the animal Both of them were taken into prophylactic vaccination programme (p<0.05. The vast majority of animal bites were dog (67%  and cat (28%. 3 doses of Human diploid cell vaccine-HDCV were administered to 1001 (70% of the patients and 5 doses to 428 (30% of patients. Human rabies immune globulin-HRIG were administered to 475 (33,3% of the patients in addition to vaccine. Discussion:  In our region rabies risk exposure is an important public health problem. Public oriented education should be given about attending to health care

  20. Embracing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Cagan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?

  1. Fuzzy Set-Based Risk Evaluation Model for Real Estate Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Yijian; HUANG Rufu; CHEN Dailin; LI Hongnan

    2008-01-01

    With the rapid development of residential real estate market, risk evaluation has been an important task in the process of project. This paper describes a risk evaluation method for residential real estate pro- jects based on fuzzy set theory which uses linguistic variables and respective fuzzy numbers to evaluate the factors. The primary weights of factors and evaluation of alternatives are determined by applying linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. The notion of Shapley value is used to determine the global value of each fac- tor in accomplishing the overall objective of the risk evaluation process, so the primary weights are revised, thus the importance of factors can be reflected more precisely. A major advantage of the method is that it al- lows experts and engineers to express their opinions on project risk evaluation in linguistic variables rather than cdsp values. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the application of the method in risk evaluation. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional risk evaluation method. The research demonstrates that the method is objective and accurate, and is of an application value in the risk evaluation for residential real estate project.

  2. Risk factors and stuttering: evaluating the evidence for clinicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, David

    2013-06-01

    This paper summarizes and discusses some of the key issues raised in the other four manuscripts in this special edition of Journal of Fluency Disorders. All the four pieces examine risk factors in developmental stuttering from different perspectives and all provide stand-alone contributions to knowledge on the subject. Thus, rather than review, the focus of the present paper is to highlight those matters, which, from a clinical perspective might be seen as either (a) of the greatest contention, (b) of particular relevance to clinicians, or (c) requiring greater emphasis in future research, on the basis of the conclusions from the authors involved. This paper provides an overview of points of particular clinical interest arising from the four contributions to this special edition. Readers will be able to (a) understand arguments for and against whole word repetitions being included as moments of stuttering in the SSI-3 assessment, (b) understand arguments relating to psychological components in early onset stuttering, (c) understand some of the complexities in interpreting data pertaining to recovery from stuttering, (d) understand where future efforts in research into risk of stuttering should be placed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  4. Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Risk Capital Requirement Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo S. Maia Clemente

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines capital requirement for financial institutions in order to cover market risk stemming from exposure to foreign currencies. The models examined belong to two groups according to the approach involved: standardized and internal models. In the first group, we study the Basel model and the model adopted by the Brazilian legislation. In the second group, we consider the models based on the concept of value at risk (VaR. We analyze the single and the double-window historical model, the exponential smoothing model (EWMA and a hybrid approach that combines features of both models. The results suggest that the Basel model is inadequate to the Brazilian market, exhibiting a large number of exceptions. The model of the Brazilian legislation has no exceptions, though generating higher capital requirements than other internal models based on VaR. In general, VaR-based models perform better and result in less capital allocation than the standardized approach model applied in Brazil.

  5. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  6. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  7. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongfang Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  8. Evaluation of awareness of risk factors for kidney cancer among patients presenting to a urology clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Alexander S; Arnold, Michelle L; Diehl, Nancy D; Hassan, Lauren; Thiel, David D

    2014-06-01

    This study aimed to evaluate awareness of risk factors for kidney cancer among patients presenting to a urology clinic. Smoking, obesity and hypertension are widely accepted as risk factors for kidney cancer; however, there are limited data regarding awareness of these risk factors. The researchers prospectively identified 172 patients presenting to a urology clinic between 1 May 2009 and 31 August 2009. Each patient completed a questionnaire that requested responses to whether certain lifestyle factors increased the risk of a variety of cancers. Information on demographics and other covariates was collected via questionnaires and medical chart abstraction. To estimate and compare risk factor awareness levels for different cancers, 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were constructed and Fisher's exact tests performed. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate covariates associated with risk factor awareness. The percentage reporting that smoking increases the risk of kidney cancer (36%, 95% CI 29-44%) was lower than for lung cancer (96%, 95% CI 92-99%). Similarly, the percentage reporting that obesity increases the risk of kidney cancer (32%, 95% CI 25-40%) was lower than for colon cancer (45%, 95% CI 37-53% CI). Only 18% (95% CI 13-25%) identified hypertension as a risk factor for kidney cancer. Female gender and younger age were associated with increased levels of awareness of the association with smoking and obesity, respectively. The data support a low level of awareness of kidney cancer risk factors and underscore an opportunity for urologists to engage in education efforts.

  9. Use of risk assessment to evaluate effects and plan remediation of abandoned mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, T.P.

    2000-01-01

    A framework of risk assessment is elaborated for the evaluation of the effects of abandoned mines and mills. Steps in this process include environmental description, identification and characterization of sources, assessment of exposure, assessment of effects, risk characterization, and risk management of remediation. The development and use of ecological end-points for remediation is discussed in terms of the chemical constituents, toxicity tests and the biological community.

  10. Evaluating uncertainties in an integrated approach for chemical risk assessment under REACH: more certain decisions?

    OpenAIRE

    Vermeire, T.G.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis concentrates on uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment methodology for industrial chemicals as applied within the current regulatory framework for industrial chemicals in Europe, REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). The methodological approaches discussed address the risk assessment for both humans and the environment. The aim of this thesis is to investigate in what way the scientific process of risk assessment can improve deci...

  11. Pediatricians’ assessments of caries risk and need for a dental evaluation in preschool aged children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long C

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Risk-based prioritization of dental referrals during well-child visits might improve dental access for infants and toddlers. This study identifies pediatrician-assessed risk factors for early childhood caries (ECC and their association with the need for a dentist’s evaluation. Methods A priority oral health risk assessment and referral tool (PORRT for children Results In total 1,288 PORRT forms were completed; 6.8% of children were identified as needing a dentist evaluation. Behavioral risk factors were prevalent but not strong predictors of the need for an evaluation. The child’s overall caries risk was the strongest predictor of the need for an evaluation. Cavitated (OR = 17.5; 95% CI = 8.08, 37.97 and non-cavitated (OR = 6.9; 95% CI = 4.47, 10.82 lesions were the strongest predictors when the caries risk scale was excluded from the analysis. Few patients (6.3% were classified as high risk, but their probability of needing an evaluation was only 0.36. Conclusions Low referral rates for children with disease and prior to disease onset but at elevated risk, indicate interventions are needed to help improve the dental referral rates of physicians.

  12. A skin sensitization risk assessment approach for evaluation of new ingredients and products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerberick, G F; Robinson, M K

    2000-06-01

    Skin sensitization risk assessment of new ingredients or products is critical before their introduction into the marketplace. The risk assessment process described in this article involves evaluation of skin sensitization hazard, consideration of all potential human exposures, comparative ingredient/product benchmarking, and, when appropriate, the management of the risk. In this article, a risk assessment process is reviewed along with a description of the risk assessment tools that are employed for evaluating a new ingredient or product. The basic process we use for evaluating the skin sensitization risk of a new product or ingredient is considered a no effect/safety factor approach. The tools used for conducting a risk assessment include structure activity relationship analysis, exposure assessment, preclinical testing (e.g., local lymph node assay [LNNA]) and clinical testing (e.g., human repeat insult patch testing [HRIPT]). The skin sensitization risk assessment process described in this paper has been used successfully for many years for the safe introduction of new products into the marketplace. This process is dynamic--it can be applied to a diversity of product categories (e.g., shampoo, transdermal drug). In summary, the skin sensitization risk assessment process described in this article allows one to carefully assess the skin sensitization potential of a new ingredient or product so that it can be safely introduced into the marketplace.

  13. The risk evaluation of mine coal-dust explosion based on BP neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Lian-jun; CHENG Wei-min

    2007-01-01

    Introduced the theory of three types of hazardous sources, and it recognized and analysed such three types of hazardous sources as the factor of inherent hazardous source, factor of inducing hazardous source and factor of men, which affect the safety and reliability of coal-dust explosion risk system and then builds up the risk factor indices of coal-dust explosion according to analysis of conditions inducing the coal-dust explosion. It fixes the risk degree of coal-dust explosion risk system by analyzing loss probability and loss scope of risk system and by means of the probabilistic hazard evaluation method and risk matrix method, etc.. According to the feature of strong capability of nonlinear approximation of BP neural network, the paper designed the structure of BP neural network for the risk evaluation of the mine coal-dust explosion with BP neural network. And the weight of the network was finally determined by training the given samples so that the risk degree of samples to be measured could be exactly evaluated and the risk of mine coal-dust explosion could be alarmed in good time.

  14. Basin Scale Water Infrastructure Investment Evaluation Considering Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaheil, Y. H.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    Water storage infrastructure has historically been a primary means of addressing vulnerability to climate risk. Rainfall, and streamflow fluctuate at many time scales, rendering supply unreliable unless a mechanism for surface or subsurface storage is provided. Irrigated agriculture typically provides dramatically higher yields relative to rain fed agriculture, by ensuring a regular, when needed water supply. Irrigation is also typically the dominant water user in most parts of the world. Addressing storage-irrigation infrastructure needs is thus a critical piece in developing a strategy for regional water and food security in the face of a changing climate. In the 20th century, large reservoir and canal system projects were funded and developed in many regions. It is argued that these played a significant role in facilitating the Green Revolution in India, Pakistan and elsewhere. However, this notion has been challenged, and many negative environmental and socio-economic impacts of such projects have been highlighted. Governance and maintenance of such hydraulic infrastructure has also been a challenge, and a paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and participatory processes has been argued for. In the last decade or so, considerable interest has been directed towards local or on-farm decentralized storage development, i.e., towards small scale reservoir and use systems where governance may be less of an issue. There has been government support of such activities in countries such as India, leading to a rapid proliferation of such systems in some areas. Questions about the effect of such development on the regional hydrologic balance and as to their resilience in a changing climate arise. Further, in the spirit of IWRM, one needs to consider the potential use of water as well as the development and management of supply. In the current context, a central question that can be posed is the identification of the best mix of centralized and

  15. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......) are obtained. Recent research has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the CBA, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to address these inaccuracies in a so-called Reference...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  16. Methods to evaluate the nutrition risk in hospitalized patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erkan, Tülay

    2014-01-01

    The rate of malnutrition is substantially high both in the population and in chronic patients hospitalized because of different reasons. The rate of patients with no marked malnutrition at the time of hospitalization who develop malnutrition during hospitalization is also substantially high. Therefore, there are currently different screening methods with different targets to prevent malnutrition and its overlook. These methods should be simple and reliable and should not be time-consuming in order to be used in daily practice. Seven nutrition risk screening methods used in children have been established until the present time. However, no consensus has been made on any method as in adults. It should be accepted that interrogation of nutrition is a part of normal examination to increase awareness on this issue and to draw attention to this issue. PMID:26078678

  17. "Neonatal septic arthritis and osteomyelitis. Evaluation of risk factors "

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nili F

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Neonatal septic arthritis and osteomyelitis is not prevalent in first month of the life in new borne children. According to anatomic specifications of bones in this period, the manifestation of disease is different from other periods of life and the disability induced, will be serious and permanent. In this investigation, 31 infants with the diagnosis of septic arthritis and osteomyelitis were studied during 10 years. Hyperbilirubinemia (58.1 percent, emergency cesarean (25.8 percent, umbilical vessel catheterization (26.6 percent, permaturity (12.9 percent, perinatal asphyxia (9.7 percent, scalp laceration (6.5 percent, omphalitis & previous bone fracture (6.5 percent were the most common findings among predisposing factors. Previous hospital admission was detected in 19 patients (67.3 percent and multiple bone involvements demonstrated in 12 (38.7 percent. From those who had risk factors, 42.3 percent had multiple bone lesions. Only 5 patients (16.12 percent had no predisposing factors. The mean age for diagnosis and seeking admission were 23 and 30 days respectively and the mean age of diagnosis at surgery was over 72 hours in 15 (48.38 percent cases. All with delaying in requesting admission had destructive changes in their joints. Knee and hip were most involved (77.3 percent. The most common microorganisms found in this study were staphylococcus aureus and klebsiella. Of all, 47 percent were gram negative & 53 percent gram positive microorganisms. Existence of risk factors and previous hospital admission in the majority of cases accompanied by microorganisms such as methiciline resistant S.aureus and klebsiella as a causative agents who were also resistant to empirical antibiotics demonstrated the role of nosocomial infections as an important cause of infection.

  18. Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

    2015-01-01

    The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

  19. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    and transparency of risk assessments carried out by EFSA. The document discusses the main issues of the pest risk assessment process: terminology, data requirements and data-related uncertainties. Furthermore, the document provides a framework for pest risk assessment and evaluation of pest risk management options....... For the assessment of entry, establishment and spread of pests; both qualitative and quantitative approaches are recommended. An EFSA-adapted EPPO scheme is proposed should a qualitative approach be followed. The assessment of potential consequences of pest introduction and spread considers direct and indirect...... in the assessment. Principal requirements for the documentation of the pest risk assessment process are also discussed....

  20. A risk evaluation model of cervical cancer based on etiology and human leukocyte antigen allele susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bicheng Hu

    2014-11-01

    Conclusions: This model, based on etiology and HLA allele susceptibility, can estimate the risk of cervical cancer in chronic cervicitis patients after HPV infection. It combines genetic and environmental factors and significantly enhances the accuracy of risk evaluation for cervical cancer. This model could be used to select patients for intervention therapy and to guide patient classification management.

  1. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-05-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

  2. [Using the evaluation of carcinogenic risk in the mining and metallurgical enterprises of the Arctic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebriakov, P V

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study--hygienic assessment of the contribution of factors of working environment) in the formation of carcinogenic risk to the mining and metallurgical enterprises of the Far North, the establishment of the structural features of cancer pathology among workers of these enterprises, quantitative evaluation of individual professional cancer risk in different nosological forms and morphological variants of malignant neoplasms.

  3. Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, P.K.; Joekes, K.; Elwyn, G.; Mazor, K.M.; Thomson, R.; Sedgwick, P.; Ibison, J.; Wong, J.B.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. METHODS: A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental

  4. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  5. BREAST CANCER RISK EVALUATION - A CORRELATION BETWEEN MAMMOGRAPHIC DENSITY AND THE GAIL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Baytchev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The Gail model is a statistical tool, which assesses breast cancer probability, based on nonmodifiable risk factors. In contrast, the evaluation of mammographic breast density is an independent and dynamic risk factor influenced by interventions modifying breast cancer risk incidence. The aim of the present study is to compare the possibilities for risk factor integration and analysis and to search for a correlation between mammographic density and the Gail model for breast cancer risk evaluation. The subject of this prospective study is a cohort of 107 women at ages from 37 to 71 years, who have had benign breast diseases, digital mammograms, and Gail model risk evaluation. Mammographic density is evaluated in craniocaudal projection subjectively visually and objectively using the computer imaging software. (Image J software The Gail risk evaluation is completed using the standardized NCI questionnaire (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. In concordance with the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RAD by ACR, mammographic density is evaluated using a four-grade scale. Low density D1 (less than 25% was determined in 24 cases, D2 (25-50% in 36 cases, D3 (51-75% in 31 cases and high density D4 (greater than 75% in 16 cases. According to the Gail model, 80 (74,8% of the examined patients did not have an increased risk (less than 1,67% for a five-year period, whereas the remaining 27 (25,2% had a statistically significant increase in risk (greater than 1,67% for a five-year period. Women with increased risk more often present with denser breast (34% with D3, D4 versus 18,3% for D1, D2. The Gail model does not adequately explain the correlation between breast density and statistically calculated risk. The development of more detailed tools, which take into consideration breast density, as well as other risk factors, may be helpful for a more accurate evaluation of the individual risk for breast cancer.

  6. Social stability and HIV risk behavior: evaluating the role of accumulated vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention.

  7. Scientific Opinion on the risk of Dickeya dianthicola for the EU territory with identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Dickeya dianthicola for the EU territory under the scenario of current EU plant health legislation and identified and evaluated risk reduction options. The probability of entry was considered low for carnation cuttings and mother plants because association of D. dianthicola with carnation is rare nowadays. Probability of entry was considered higher for other host plants for planting that are not subject to statutory control. However, this pathogen already occurs in these crops in the EU, and its transfer from them to carnation is unlikely. The probability of establishment is high in the open field but low in protected crops. The probability of spread is moderate in the open field but low in protected crops. Under current phytosanitary measures, but with voluntary certification and sanitation practices in place, consequences for carnation are minimal since no carnation crop losses have been reported in the last 25 years. The risk reduction options with best effectiveness and feasibility are those addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material. However, although the prevalence of D. dianthicola on carnation is low at present, current EU measures appear to have some potential weaknesses, particularly because of lack of details on the testing of mother plants. If the current regulation were to be removed, no major consequences or changes in the potential impact of D. dianthicola are expected provided the current general hygiene practices applied in the European voluntary certification schemes are maintained. If, on the other hand, the current legislation were removed and a voluntary certification scheme was not maintained, contamination of carnation crops by D. dianthicola is expected, with ensuing detrimental effects. Additional risk reduction options to reduce the probability of entry, establishment, spread and impact were identified. Uncertainties on the

  8. Evaluation of rear-end crash risk at work zone using work zone traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2011-07-01

    This paper aims to evaluate the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area and merging area, as well as analyze the impacts of contributing factors by using work zone traffic data. Here, the rear-end crash risk is referred to as the probability that a vehicle is involved in a rear-end crash accident. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is used in measuring rear-end crash risk. Based on work zone traffic data in Singapore, three rear-end crash risk models are developed to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk at activity area and its contributing factors. The fourth rear-end crash risk model is developed to examine the effects of merging behavior on crash risk at merging area. The ANOVA results show that the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area is statistically different from lane positions. Model results indicate that rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area increases with heavy vehicle percentage and lane traffic flow rate. An interesting finding is that the lane closer to work zone is strongly associated with higher rear-end crash risk. A truck has much higher probability involving in a rear-end accident than a car. Further, the expressway work zone activity area is found to have much larger crash risk than arterial work zone activity area. The merging choice has the dominated effect on risk reduction, suggesting that encouraging vehicles to merge early may be the most effective method to reduce rear-end crash risk at work zone merging area.

  9. Progress in the evaluation of transgenic fish for possible ecological risk and its containment strategies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU; Wei; WANG; YaPing; ZHU; ZuoYan

    2007-01-01

    Genetically improved transgenic fish possess many beneficial economic traits; however, the commercial aquaculture of transgenic fish has not been performed till date. One of the major reasons for this is the possible ecological risk associated with the escape or release of the transgenic fish. Using a growth hormone transgenic fish with rapid growth characteristics as a subject, this paper analyzes the following: the essence of the potential ecological risks posed by transgenic fish; ecological risk in the current situation due to transgenic fish via one-factor phenotypic and fitness analysis, and mathematical model deduction. Then, it expounds new ideas and the latest findings using an artificially simulated ecosystem for the evaluation of the ecological risks posed by transgenic fish. Further, the study comments on the strategies and principles of controlling these ecological risks by using a triploid approach. Based on these results, we propose that ecological risk evaluation and prevention strategies are indispensable important components and should be accompanied with breeding research in order to provide enlightments for transgenic fish breeding, evaluation of the ecological risks posed by transgenic fish, and development of containment strategies against the risks.

  10. Evaluation of nosocomial infection risk using APACHE II scores in the neurological intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-Ying; Li, Shu-Juan; Yang, Nan; Hu, Wen-Li

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of using the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system for predicting the risk of nosocomial infection in the neurological intensive care unit (NICU), 216 patients transferred to NICU within 24hours of admission were retrospectively evaluated. Based on admission APACHE II scores, they were classified into three groups, with higher APACHE II scores representing higher infectious risk. The device utilization ratios and device-associated infection ratios of NICU patients were analyzed and compared with published reports on patient outcome. Statistical analysis of nosocomial infection ratios showed obvious differences between the high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups (pAPACHE II model in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection was 0.81, which proved to be reliable and consistent with the expectation. In addition, we found statistical differences in the duration of hospital stay (patient-days) and device utilization (device-days) between different risk groups (pAPACHE II scoring system was validated in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection, duration of patient-days and device-days, and providing accurate assessment of patients' condition, so that appropriate prevention strategies can be implemented based on admission APACHE II scores.

  11. Identification by ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries of high-risk subjects missed by three validated cardiovascular disease risk algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postley, John E; Luo, Yanting; Wong, Nathan D; Gardin, Julius M

    2015-11-15

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events are the leading cause of death in the United States and globally. Traditional global risk algorithms may miss 50% of patients who experience ASCVD events. Noninvasive ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at high risk for ASCVD events. We examined the ability of different global risk algorithms to identify subjects with femoral and/or carotid plaques found by ultrasound. The study population consisted of 1,464 asymptomatic adults (39.8% women) aged 23 to 87 years without previous evidence of ASCVD who had ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries. Three ASCVD risk algorithms (10-year Framingham Risk Score [FRS], 30-year FRS, and lifetime risk) were compared for the 939 subjects who met the algorithm age criteria. The frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque was 18.3% in the total group and 14.8% in the risk algorithm groups (n = 939) without a significant difference between genders in frequency of femoral plaque as the only plaque. Those identified as high risk by the lifetime risk algorithm included the most men and women who had plaques either femoral or carotid (59% and 55%) but had lower specificity because the proportion of subjects who actually had plaques in the high-risk group was lower (50% and 35%) than in those at high risk defined by the FRS algorithms. In conclusion, ultrasound evaluation of the carotid and femoral arteries can identify subjects at risk of ASCVD events missed by traditional risk-predicting algorithms. The large proportion of subjects with femoral plaque only supports the use of including both femoral and carotid arteries in ultrasound evaluation.

  12. Risk Evaluation on Logistics Finance of Agricultural Products Based on Fuzzy-AHP Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan; PANG; Yangkun; XIA

    2015-01-01

    The development of logistics finance business for agricultural products is the best way to realize the common interests of logistics enterprises,small and medium-sized agricultural product enterprises and financial institutions,which will contribute to the development of China’s new socialist rural economy and the construction of " two-oriented society". As the agricultural products have some special attributes,it’s easy to create the risk in carrying out the logistics finance business. The paper constructs a risk evaluation indicator system for logistics finance of agricultural product,and uses the Fuzzy-AHP model to evaluate. The results show that the comprehensive risk level is normal risk,which shows that third-party logistics enterprises can carry out the logistics financial business of agricultural products,but the risks from logistics enterprises and agricultural collateral need to be prevented.

  13. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HWAN; YANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).……

  14. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).

  15. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HAWNYANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful too for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data.contaminant residue levels,statistical tools,exposure values and relevant variants,Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates,along with statutory,engineering,economic,social,and political factors,in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options(NRC,1983).

  16. LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES RISK EVALUATION IN READY TO EAT DELI PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Civera

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has become one of the major concerns for food safety. Its ability to survive and replicate at low temperature, pH and high salt concentration, makes the bacterium a threat, mostly for RTE products. For these reasons, the present research was aimed at detecting the ability of growth of L. monocytogenes in RTE products retrieved from one deli store. Samples were analysed for L. monocytogenes detection, then inoculated with the pathogen (105cell/ml and stored at refrigeration temperature for the duration of their shelf-life (15-60 days. In all the products L. monocytogenes was not detected before experimental contamination. The challenge test evidenced that experimentally inoculated L. monocytogenes was not able to multiply for the duration of the entire shelf-life. These results indicated that the tested products could be considered as foods which are not able to support the growth of L. monocytogenes, as indicated by E.C. Regulation 2073/05. However, in order to guarantee consumer’s safety, it needs to be emphasized the need of a correct application of the GMPs, required for lowering the risk of initial contamination.

  17. RISK MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caruntu Andreea Laura

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the last years the financial economic crisis has seriously affected the worldwide economies and what we know is that the risk is a phenomenon that appears daily in each company’s activity. It is seen as the probability of an event and its consequences. Each company needs to take into consideration that a good risk management is necessary if they want to survive in the economic environment. The purpose of this article is to bring into notice of the readers already known notions relating to risk and risk management so that it is understood how important it is to take immediate measures in cases of risky situations. Unfortunately, many companies do not take into consideration such a serious aspect and this only leads to serious financial problems.

  18. Risk evaluation of rock burst through theory of static and dynamic stresses superposition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李振雷; 蔡武; 窦林名; 何江; 王桂峰; 丁言露

    2015-01-01

    Rock burst is one of the most catastrophic dynamic hazards in coal mining. A static and dynamic stresses superposition-based (SDSS-based) risk evaluation method of rock burst was proposed to pre-evaluate rock burst risk. Theoretical basis of this method is the stress criterion incurring rock burst and rock burst risk is evaluated according to the closeness degree of the total stress (due to the superposition of static stress in the coal and dynamic stress induced by tremors) with the critical stress. In addition, risk evaluation criterion of rock burst was established by defining the “Satisfaction Degree” of static stress. Furthermore, the method was used to pre-evaluate rock burst risk degree and prejudge endangered area of an insular longwall face in Nanshan Coal Mine in China. Results show that rock burst risk is moderate at advance extent of 97 m, strong at advance extent of 97−131 m, and extremely strong (i.e. inevitable to occur) when advance extent exceeds 131 m (mining is prohibited in this case). The section of two gateways whose floor abuts 15−3 coal seam is a susceptible area prone to rock burst. Evaluation results were further compared with rock bursts and tremors detected by microseismic monitoring. Comparison results indicate that evaluation results are consistent with microseismic monitoring, which proves the method’s feasibility.

  19. 76 FR 54507 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    ... COMMISSION Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for... the effects of natural phenomena, including earthquakes, without losing the capability to perform... Electric Power Research Institute models to estimate earthquake ground motion and updated models...

  20. Interpretation and evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment guidelines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murray, K

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to facilitate a common understanding, on-going debate and increasing application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in South Africa, the ERA process of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been summarised and evaluated...

  1. Comparative evaluation by lifecycle and risk assessment of agrobiological and technological routes of production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    1997-01-01

    The application of lifecycle and risk assessment methodologies for environmental assessment of agricultural products is growing and produces interesting results. This allows comparisons between agricultural and technological routes of production. An evaluation of such assessments provides increased

  2. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  3. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  4. Methodological Approaches to Evaluate Teratogenic Risk Using Birth Defect Registries: Advantages and Disadvantages

    OpenAIRE

    Poletta, Fernando A.; López Camelo, Jorge S.; Gili, Juan A.; Emmanuele Leoncini; CASTILLA, EDUARDO E.; Pierpaolo Mastroiacovo

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Different approaches have been used in case-control studies to estimate maternal exposure to medications and the risk of birth defects. However, the performance of these approaches and how they affect the odds ratio (OR) estimates have not been evaluated using birth-defect surveillance programmes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the scope and limitations of three case-control approaches to assess the teratogenic risk of birth defects in mothers exposed to antiepileptic medic...

  5. The value-at-risk evaluation of Brent's crude oil market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen; Isa, Zaidi; Ying, Khor Chia; Lai, Ng Sew

    2014-06-01

    This study investigates the market risk of the Brent's crude oil market. First the long memory time-varying volatility is modelled under the Chung's specification. Second, for model adequacy evaluations on the heavy-tailed, long memory and endogenously estimated power transformation models indicated superior performance in out-of-sample forecasts. Lastly, these findings are further applied in the long and short trading positions of market risk evaluations of the Brent's market.

  6. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  7. RISK EVALUATION ON RAILWAY PUBLIC EMERGENCIES DURING 2008 BEIJING OLYMPIC GAMES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Risk evaluation is fundamental to eliminate and prenent any kind of public emergencies ,while that for railway public emergencies is the foundation to guarantee railway sicurity.With the researches on the flow and methods of risk evaluation and the evaltation on railway public evtergencies during 2008 Beijing Olympic Games,the article puts forward measures and suggestions for risk control,providing reference for decision making by government departments,the Organizing Committee of Beijing Olympic Games,and the Security Coorduating Tean of Beijing Olympics as well as jproviding basis for solutions by the Security Control Center of Beijing Olympics and the relevant dipartments of railway sector.

  8. Risk Assessment of Physical Hazards in Greek Hospitals Combining Staff’s Perception, Experts’ Evaluation and Objective Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Styliani Gewrgios Tziaferi

    2011-09-01

    Conclusion: This study confirmed the usefulness of staff participation in the risk assessment process, despite the tendency for staff to overestimate the risk level of physical hazards. The combination of combining staff perception, experts’ evaluation and objective measures in the risk assessment process increases the efficiency of risk management in the hospital environment and the enforcement of relevant legislation.

  9. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    For many dam projects in China, the 50-year designed life time is coming to an end. It is urgent to study the theory and method to evaluate the dam service life. In this paper, firstly, the probability theory of fuzzy event and time-varying effect theory are used to analyze the time-variety of various risk factors in the process of dam operations. A method is proposed to quantify the above time-variety and a model to describe the fuzzy time-varying risk probability for the dam structure is also built. Secondly, the information entropy theory is used to analyze the uncertain degree relationship between the characteristic value of membership function and fuzzy risk probability, and a mathematical method is presented to calculate the time-varying risk probability accordingly. Thirdly, the relation mode between time-varying risk probability and service life is discussed. Based on this relation mode and the acceptable risk probability of dams in China, a method is put forward to evaluate and forecast the dam service life. Finally, the proposed theory and method are used to analyze one concrete dam. The dynamic variability and mutation feature of the dam risk probability are analyzed. The remaining service life of this dam is forecasted. The obtained results can provide technology support for the project management department to make treatment measures of engineering and reasonably arrange reinforce cost. The principles in this paper have wide applicability and can be used in risk analysis for slope instability and other fields.

  10. Cardiovascular risk factors in women 10 years post early preeclampsia: the Preeclampsia Risk EValuation in FEMales study (PREVFEM).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drost, J.T.; Arpaci, G.; Ottervanger, J.P.; Boer, M.J. de; Eyck, J. van; Schouw, Y.T. van der; Maas, A.H.E.M.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Preeclampsia is a complication of pregnancy and a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in a women's life. The best approach for prevention of CVD in affected young women is yet unclear. We sought to investigate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in women

  11. Managing Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alaranta, Maria Eliisa; Mathiassen, Lars

    2014-01-01

    , analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting......Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...

  12. Raising risk preparedness through flood risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidl, E.; Buchecker, M.

    2014-01-01

    During the last decade, most European countries have produced risk maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most effectively to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard area about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake appropriate actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to a better understanding the factors influencing flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard areas in Zurich. The questionnaire comprised items measuring respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, kind of property owned, attachment to the property, trust in local authorities, and socio-demographic variables. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but our results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main factors influencing the respondents' intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which they evaluated the information material positively and their risk awareness. Those who had never taken any interest in floods previously were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication of relevant information tailored to the needs of the target population.

  13. [Integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters affecting longyan yield in Fujian Province, East China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jia-Jin; Wang, Jia-Yi; Li, Li-Chun; Lin, Jing; Yang, Kai; Ma, Zhi-Guo; Xu, Zong-Huan

    2012-03-01

    In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters on the Longyan production in Fujian Province was constructed, based on the analysis of the major environmental factors affecting the Longyan growth and yield, and from the viewpoints of potential hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Longyan growth regions in the Province. In addition, an integrated evaluation model of multiple disasters was established to evaluate the risks of the major agro-meteorological disasters affecting the Longyan yield, based on the yearly meteorological data, Longyan planting area and yield, and other socio-economic data in Longyan growth region in Fujian, and by using the integral weight of risk indices determined by AHP and entropy weight coefficient methods. In the Province, the Longyan growth regions with light integrated risk of multiple disasters were distributed in the coastal counties (except Dongshan County) with low elevation south of Changle, the regions with severe and more severe integrated risk were mainly in Zhangping of Longyan, Dongshan, Pinghe, Nanjin, and Hua' an of Zhangzhou, Yongchun and Anxi of Quanzhou, north mountainous areas of Putian and Xianyou, Minqing, Minhou, Luoyuan, and mountainous areas of Fuzhou, and Fuan, Xiapu, and mountainous areas of Ninde, among which, the regions with severe integrated risk were in Dongshan, Zhangping, and other mountainous areas with high altitudes, and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the Province.

  14. Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Szpyrka

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

  15. Using the Bayesian network relative risk model risk assessment process to evaluate management alternatives for the South River and upper Shenandoah River, Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johns, Annie F; Graham, Scarlett E; Harris, Meagan J; Markiewicz, April J; Stinson, Jonah M; Landis, Wayne G

    2017-01-01

    We have conducted a series of regional scale risk assessments using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to evaluate the efficacy of 2 remediation options in the reduction of risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. The 2 remediation options were 1) bank stabilization (BST) and 2) the implementation of best management practices for agriculture (AgBMPs) to reduce Hg input in to the river. Eight endpoints were chosen to be part of the risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although Hg contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, multiple chemical and physical stressors were evaluated in this analysis. Specific models were built that incorporated the changes expected from AgBMP and BST and were based on our previous research. Changes in risk were calculated, and sensitivity and influence analyses were conducted on the models. The assessments indicated that AgBMP would only slightly change risk in the study area but that negative impacts were also unlikely. Bank stabilization would reduce risk to Hg for the smallmouth bass and belted kingfisher and increase risk to abiotic water quality endpoints. However, if care were not taken to prevent loss of nesting habitat to belted kingfisher, an increase in risk to that species would occur. Because Hg was only one of several stressors contributing to risk, the change in risk depended on the specific endpoint. Sensitivity analysis provided a list of variables to be measured as part of a monitoring program. Influence analysis provided the range of maximum and minimum risk values for each endpoint and remediation option. This research demonstrates the applicability of ecological risk assessment and specifically the BN-RRM as part of a long-term adaptive management scheme for managing contaminated sites. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:100-114. © 2016 SETAC.

  16. Committee to evaluate Sandia`s risk expertise: Final report. Volume 1: Presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, E.C.

    1998-05-01

    On July 1--2, 1997, Sandia National Laboratories hosted the External Committee to Evaluate Sandia`s Risk Expertise. Under the auspices of SIISRS (Sandia`s International Institute for Systematic Risk Studies), Sandia assembled a blue-ribbon panel of experts in the field of risk management to assess their risk programs labs-wide. Panelists were chosen not only for their own expertise, but also for their ability to add balance to the panel as a whole. Presentations were made to the committee on the risk activities at Sandia. In addition, a tour of Sandia`s research and development programs in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission was arranged. The panel attended a poster session featuring eight presentations and demonstrations for selected projects. Overviews and viewgraphs from the presentations are included in Volume 1 of this report. Presentations are related to weapons, nuclear power plants, transportation systems, architectural surety, environmental programs, and information systems.

  17. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-04-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  18. Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

    2012-12-01

    Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2016-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

  20. Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakich, Ronald

    1982-01-01

    Beginning on the front page, this article explains ways of establishing a sound risk management insurance program that can improve a school district's financial position. Organizations that can help are listed. Available from the American Association of School Administrators, 1801 North Moore Street, Arlington, VA 22209. (MLF)

  1. Biofilm Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wirtanen, Gun Linnea; Salo, Satu

    2016-01-01

    This chapter on biofilm risks deals with biofilm formation of pathogenic microbes, sampling and detection methods, biofilm removal, and prevention of biofilm formation. Several common pathogens produce sticky and/or slimy structures in which the cells are embedded, that is, biofilms, on various s...

  2. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...

  3. Risk assessment of the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Panel on Plant Health was requested by the European Commission to deliver a scientific opinion on the risk posed by the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus to the EU territory and to identify and evaluate risk management options. Additional analyses were conducted by the Panel ...

  4. Scientific Opinion on the assessment of the risk of solanaceous pospiviroids for the EU territory and the identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    in ornamentals. Main risk assessment uncertainties derive from limited knowledge on pospiviroids other than PSTVd, although all pospiviroids are expected to have similar biological properties. Management options to reduce risk of entry, spread and consequences were identified and evaluated. No management options...

  5. Environmental and social risk evaluation of overseas investment under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruilian; Andam, Francis; Shi, Guoqing

    2017-06-01

    Along with the further implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative and the promotion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the construction of the CPEC will likely face challenges owing to differences between China and Pakistan in politics, economics, culture, religion, language, customs, environmental management systems, environmental protection laws, social management systems, and social management regulations. To address potential environmental and social risks associated with Chinese enterprises as they invest in the CPEC region, this paper examines previous studies addressing topics such as the environmental and social safeguards of international institutions and Pakistan's domestic environmental and social management requirements. We then systematically identify the environmental and social risk factors involved in CPEC construction, which cover risks regarding water, air, soil, noise, biodiversity, politics, economics, culture, technology, and individuals. By establishing and calculating these risks and using a multi-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we found that noise and individual risks belong to a medium risk category, while others belong to a higher risk category. In view of these risks, the Chinese government must create a friendly and peaceful environment for Chinese enterprises to invest in the CPEC region, and Chinese enterprises must adopt a development strategy of strength and capacity building and establish enterprises capable of addressing environmental and social issues during the investment process. All stakeholders must understand that if no determined and diligent steps are taken, CPEC construction might be doomed for failure from the start.

  6. The usefulness of myocardial SPECT for the preoperative cardiac risk evaluation in noncardiac surgery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Seok Tae; Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Won Jon; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul [College of Medicine, Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-02-01

    We investigated whether myocardial SPECT had additional usefulness to clinical, functional or surgical indices for the preoperative evaluation of cardiac risks in noncardiac surgery. 118 patients ( M: F=66: 52, 62.7{+-}10.5 years) were studied retrospectively. Eighteen underwent vascular surgeries and 100 nonvascular surgeries. Rest Tl-201/ stress Tc-99m-MIBI SPECT was performed before operation and cardiac events (hard event: cardiac death and myocardial infarction; soft event: ischemic ECG change, congestive heat failure and unstable angina) were surveyed through perioperative periods (14.6{+-}5.6 days). Clinical risk indices, functional capacity, surgery procedures and SPECT findings were tested for their predictive values of perioperative cardiac events. Peri-operative cardiac events occurred in 25 patients (3 hard events and 22 soft events). Clinical risk indices, surgical procedure risks and SPECT findings but functional capacity were predictive of cardiac events. Reversible perfusion decrease was a better predictor than persistent decrease. Multivariate analysis sorted out surgical procedure risk (p=0.0018) and SPECT findings (p=0.0001) as significant risk factors. SPECT could re-stratify perioperative cardiac risks in patients ranked with surgical procedures. We conclude that myocardial SPECT provides additional predictive value to surgical type risks as well as clinical indexes or functional capacity for the prediction of preoperative cardiac events in noncardiac surgery.

  7. Evaluation of legal liability for technological risks in view of requirements for peaceful coexistence and progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandvoort, Henk

    2011-06-01

    Legal liability for risk-generating technological activities is evaluated in view of requirements that are necessary for peaceful human coexistence and progress in order to show possibilities for improvement. The requirements imply, given that political decision making about the activities proceeds on the basis of majority rule, that legal liability should be unconditional (absolute, strict) and unlimited (full). We analyze actual liability in international law for various risk-generating technological activities, to conclude that nowhere is the standard of unconditional and unlimited liability fully met. Apart from that there are enormous differences. Although significant international liability legislation is in place for some risk-generating technological activities, legislation is virtually absent for others. We discuss fundamental possibilities and limitations of liability and private insurance to secure credible and ethically sound risk assessment and risk management practices. The limitations stem from problems of establishing a causal link between an activity and a harm; compensating irreparable harm; financial warranty; moral hazard in insurance and in organizations; and discounting future damage to present value. As our requirements call for prior agreement among all who are subjected to the risks of an activity about the settlement of these difficult problems, precautionary ex ante regulation of risk-generating activities may be a more attractive option, either combined with liability stipulations or not. However, if ex ante regulation is not based on the consent of all subjected to the risks, it remains that the basis of liability in the law should be unconditional and unlimited liability.

  8. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  9. Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-01-31

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i

  10. Instruments for the assessment of suicide risk: A systematic review evaluating the certainty of the evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runeson, Bo; Odeberg, Jenny; Pettersson, Agneta; Edbom, Tobias; Jildevik Adamsson, Ingalill; Waern, Margda

    2017-01-01

    Instruments have been developed to facilitate suicide risk assessment. We aimed to evaluate the evidence for these instruments including assessment of risk of bias and diagnostic accuracy for suicide and suicide attempt. PubMed (NLM), PsycInfo, Embase, Cinahl and the Cochrane Library databases were searched until December 2014. We assessed risk of bias with QUADAS-2. The average sensitivity and specificity of each instrument was estimated and the certainty of the evidence was assessed with GRADE. We considered instruments with a sensitivity > 80% and a specificity > 50% to have sufficient diagnostic accuracy. Thirty-five relevant studies were identified but 14 were considered to have high risk of bias, leaving 21 studies evaluating altogether 15 risk assessment instruments. We could carry out meta-analyses for five instruments. For the outcome suicide attempt SAD PERSONS Scale had a sensitivity of 15% (95% CI 8-24) and specificity of 97% (96-98), and the Manchester Self-Harm Rule (MSHR) a sensitivity of 97% (97-97) and a specificity of 20% (20-21). ReACT, which is a modification of MSHR, had a similar low specificity, as did the Sodersjukhuset Self Harm Rule. For the outcome suicide, the Beck Hopelessness Scale had a sensitivity of 89% (78-95) and specificity of 42% (40-43). Most suicide risk assessment instruments were supported by too few studies to allow for evaluation of accuracy. Among those that could be evaluated, none fulfilled requirements for sufficient diagnostic accuracy.

  11. Uncertainties in evaluation of hazard and seismic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen; Manea, Elena-Florinela

    2015-04-01

    Two methods are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment: probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic(DSHA) seismic hazard analysis.Selection of a ground motion for engineering design requires a clear understanding of seismic hazard and risk among stakeholders, seismologists and engineers. What is wrong with traditional PSHA or DSHA ? PSHA common used in engineering is using four assumptions developed by Cornell in 1968:(1)-Constant-in-time average occurrence rate of earthquakes; (2)-Single point source; (3).Variability of ground motion at a site is independent;(4)-Poisson(or "memory - less") behavior of earthquake occurrences. It is a probabilistic method and "when the causality dies, its place is taken by probability, prestigious term meant to define the inability of us to predict the course of nature"(Nils Bohr). DSHA method was used for the original design of Fukushima Daichii, but Japanese authorities moved to probabilistic assessment methods and the probability of exceeding of the design basis acceleration was expected to be 10-4-10-6 . It was exceeded and it was a violation of the principles of deterministic hazard analysis (ignoring historical events)(Klügel,J,U, EGU,2014, ISSO). PSHA was developed from mathematical statistics and is not based on earthquake science(invalid physical models- point source and Poisson distribution; invalid mathematics; misinterpretation of annual probability of exceeding or return period etc.) and become a pure numerical "creation" (Wang, PAGEOPH.168(2011),11-25). An uncertainty which is a key component for seismic hazard assessment including both PSHA and DSHA is the ground motion attenuation relationship or the so-called ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) which describes a relationship between a ground motion parameter (i.e., PGA,MMI etc.), earthquake magnitude M, source to site distance R, and an uncertainty. So far, no one is taking into consideration strong nonlinear behavior of soils during of strong earthquakes. But

  12. Non-invasive evaluation of arrhythmic risk in dilated cardiomyopathy:From imaging to electrocardiographic measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Massimo; Iacoviello; Francesco; Monitillo

    2014-01-01

    Malignant ventricular arrhythmias are a major adverse event and worsen the prognosis of patients affected by ischemic and non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy.The main parameter currently used to stratify arrhythmic risk and guide decision making towards the implantation of a cardioverter defibrillator is the evaluation of the left ventricular ejection fraction.However,this strategy is characterized by several limitations and consequently additional parameters have been suggested in order to improve arrhythmic risk stratification.The aim of this review is to critically revise the prognostic significance of non-invasive diagnostic tools in order to better stratify the arrhythmic risk prognosis of dilated cardiomyopathy patients.

  13. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  14. Raising risk preparedness by flood risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidl, E.; Buchecker, M.

    2015-07-01

    During the last decade, most European countries have produced hazard maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most efficiently to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard zone about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to better understand the factors that influence flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard zones in Zurich (response rate main survey: 34 %). The questionnaire included items to measure respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information-seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, attachment to the property and trust in local authorities. Data about the type of property and socio-demographic variables were also collected. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but the results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main influencing factors on the intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which respondents evaluated the information material positively as well as their risk awareness. Respondents who had never taken any previous interest in floods were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication that is tailored to the information needs of the target population.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Slip and fall risk on ice and snow:identification, evaluation and prevention

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Chuansi

    2004-01-01

    Slip and fall accidents and associated injuries on ice and snow are prevalent among outdoor workers and the general public in winter in many regions of the world. To understand and tackle this multi-factorial problem, a multidisciplinary approach was used to identify and evaluate slip and fall risks, and to propose recommendations for prevention of slips and falls on icy and snowy surfaces. Objectives were to present a systems perspective of slip and fall accidents and related risk factors; t...

  17. Evaluation of the predictability of real-time crash risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei

    2016-09-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the predictability of crash risk models that were developed using high-resolution real-time traffic data. More specifically the present study sought answers to the following questions: (a) how to evaluate the predictability of a real-time crash risk model; and (b) how to improve the predictability of a real-time crash risk model. The predictability is defined as the crash probability given the crash precursor identified by the crash risk model. An equation was derived based on the Bayes' theorem for estimating approximately the predictability of crash risk models. The estimated predictability was then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the threshold of crash precursors, the matched and unmatched case-control design, and the control-to-case ratio on the predictability of crash risk models. It was found that: (a) the predictability of a crash risk model can be measured as the product of prior crash probability and the ratio between sensitivity and false alarm rate; (b) there is a trade-off between the predictability and sensitivity of a real-time crash risk model; (c) for a given level of sensitivity, the predictability of the crash risk model that is developed using the unmatched case-controlled sample is always better than that of the model developed using the matched case-controlled sample; and (d) when the control-to-case ratio is beyond 4:1, the increase in control-to-case ratio does not lead to clear improvements in predictability.

  18. Money laundering regulatory risk evaluation using Bitmap Index-based Decision Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vikas Jayasree

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes to evaluate the adaptability risk in money laundering using Bitmap Index-based Decision Tree (BIDT technique. Initially, the Bitmap Index-based Decision Tree learning is used to induce the knowledge tree which helps to determine a company’s money laundering risk and improve scalability. A bitmap index in BIDT is used to effectively access large banking databases. In a BIDT bitmap index, account in a table is numbered in sequence with each key value, account number and a bitmap (array of bytes used instead of a list of row ids. Subsequently, BIDT algorithm uses the “select” query performance to apply count and bit-wise logical operations on AND. Query result coincides exactly to build a decision tree and more precisely to evaluate the adaptability risk in the money laundering operation. For the root node, the main account of the decision tree, the population frequencies are obtained by simply counting the total number of “1” in the bitmaps constructed on the attribute to predict money laundering and evaluate the risk factor rate. The experiment is conducted on factors such as regulatory risk rate, false positive rate, and risk identification time.

  19. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  20. Clinical Evaluation of a New Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary or Secondary Evaluation Tool (PURPOSE T).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Susanne; Smith, Isabelle L; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Keen, Justin; Muir, Delia; Wilson, Lyn; Stubbs, Nikki; Dealey, Carol; Brown, Sarah; Nelson, E Andrea; Nixon, Jane

    2017-08-23

    To test the psychometric properties and clinical usability of a new Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instrument including inter-rater and test-retest reliability, convergent validity and data completeness. Methodological and practical limitations associated with traditional Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments, prompted a programme to work to develop a new instrument, as part of the National Institute for Health Research funded, Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056). Observational field test. For this clinical evaluation 230 patients were purposefully sampled across four broad levels of pressure ulcer risk with representation from 4 secondary care and 4 community NHS Trusts in England. Blinded and simultaneous paired (ward/community nurse and expert nurse) PURPOSE-T assessments were undertaken. Follow-up retest was undertaken by the expert nurse. Field notes of PURPOSE-T use were collected. Data were collected October 2012-Jan 2013. The clinical evaluation demonstrated 'very good' (kappa) inter-rater and test-retest agreement for PURPOSE-T assessment decision overall. The percentage agreement for 'problem/no problem' was over 75% for the main risk factors. Convergent validity demonstrated moderate to high associations with other measures of similar constructs. The PURPOSE-T evaluation facilitated the initial validation and clinical usability of the instrument and demonstrated that PURPOSE-T is suitable of use in clinical practice. Further study is needed to evaluate the impact of using the instrument on care processes and outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Balance Problems Diabetes Fainting (Syncope) Foot Problems Fractures Osteoporosis Physical Activity Prevention Sleep Problems Stroke Join our e- ... medications reveals possible toxic levels Detailed memory testing Physical therapy assessment A home safety evaluation. Updated: March 2012 ...

  2. Corrosion risk assessment and comprehensive evaluation of ship sea water pipe systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Guangfu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to propose a comprehensive corrosion risk evaluation model based on an analysis of the corrosion risk of sea water pipe systems of ships in service,the modes of potential corrosion and their causes were first analyzed by identifying the origins of the inner and outer corrosion of the sea water pipe systems. In accordance with the matrixes of corrosion occurrence possibility and corrosion risk consequence,a corrosion risk matrix was established for a sea water pipe system. The method for the quantitative evaluation value of each mode of corrosion possibly occurring in a sea water pipe system was then presented. The comprehensive evaluation model of the corrosion was first built using the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP,which can be used for the comprehensive corrosion evaluation. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation value will be expressed as the corrosion risk level and corrosion-induced consequence of the sea water pipe system. This will be very useful for accurately protecting the sea water pipe systems of ships in service from corrosion,thereby attaining the goals of economy,rationality and timeliness.

  3. Evaluation of Head and Brain Injury Risk Functions Using Sub-Injurious Human Volunteer Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Erin J; Gabler, Lee F; McGhee, James S; Olszko, Ardyn V; Chancey, V Carol; Crandall, Jeff R; Panzer, Matthew B

    2017-08-15

    Risk assessment models are developed to estimate the probability of brain injury during head impact using mechanical response variables such as head kinematics and brain tissue deformation. Existing injury risk functions have been developed using different datasets based on human volunteer and scaled animal injury responses to impact. However, many of these functions have not been independently evaluated with respect to laboratory-controlled human response data. In this study, the specificity of 14 existing brain injury risk functions was assessed by evaluating their ability to correctly predict non-injurious response using previously conducted sled tests with well-instrumented human research volunteers. Six degrees-of-freedom head kinematics data were obtained for 335 sled tests involving subjects in frontal, lateral, and oblique sled conditions up to 16 Gs peak sled acceleration. A review of the medical reports associated with each individual test indicated no clinical diagnosis of mild or moderate brain injury in any of the cases evaluated. Kinematic-based head and brain injury risk probabilities were calculated directly from the kinematic data, while strain-based risks were determined through finite element model simulation of the 335 tests. Several injury risk functions substantially over predict the likelihood of concussion and diffuse axonal injury; proposed maximum principal strain-based injury risk functions predicted nearly 80 concussions and 14 cases of severe diffuse axonal injury out of the 335 non-injurious cases. This work is an important first step in assessing the efficacy of existing brain risk functions and highlights the need for more predictive injury assessment models.

  4. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for \\uppercaseCampylobacter in broiler meat

    OpenAIRE

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid; Tuominen, Pirkko; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and con...

  5. Practitioner evaluation of a novel online integrated oral health and risk assessment tool: a practice pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, M; Chapple, E; Matthews, R; Chapple, I L C

    2013-08-01

    To report the development and evaluation of an evidence-based, online, patient assessment tool, capable of measuring oral health status, future disease risk and capitation fee guidance. An online integrated oral health and risk assessment tool called DEPPA was developed, incorporating 1) PreViser(™) risk scores for periodontal disease, caries, non-carious tooth surface loss and oral cancer, 2) revised versions of Denplan Excel's Oral Health Score and 3) capitation fee guidance score. DEPPA was piloted by 25 dentists who provided quantitative and qualitative feedback. Six hundred and forty assessments were performed. There was strong agreement on the need for such a tool, that it constituted a comprehensive assessment and supported good patient communication. The validity of the system was perceived as sound and the revised capitation fee guidance broadly welcomed. While some deemed the caries risk scoring algorithm to be too sensitive, the 30% high/very high risk rating is consistent with current rates of active caries in UK adults. A viable online oral health and risk-assessment tool has been developed (DEPPA) that will allow dental teams to measure oral health status, future disease risk and receive ongoing guidance on capitation fee setting. The indications are that DEPPA could be a valuable audit, care planning and patient communication tool.

  6. Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

    2017-06-01

    The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  7. Development and evaluation of the "BRISK Scale," a brief observational measure of risk communication competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Paul K J; Joekes, Katherine; Mills, Greg; Gutheil, Caitlin; Smith, Kahsi; Cochran, Nancy E; Elwyn, Glyn

    2016-12-01

    To develop and evaluate a brief observational measure of clinical risk communication competence. A 4-item checklist-type measure, the BRISK (Brief Risk Information Skill) Scale, was developed by selecting and refining items from a more comprehensive measure of clinical risk communication competence. Six volunteer raters received brief training on the measure and then used the BRISK Scale to evaluate 52 video-recorded encounters between 2nd-year medical students and standardized patients conducted as part of an Observed Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) involving a risk communication task. Internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and criterion validity were assessed. Raters reported no difficulties using the BRISK Scale; scores across all raters and subjects ranged from 0 to 16 with a mean score of 6.49 (SD=3.17). The BRISK Scale showed good internal consistency reliability (α=0.64), and inter-rater reliability at the scale level (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC)=0.79 for consistency, and 0.75 for absolute agreement) and individual-item level (ICC range: 0.62-.91). Novice raters' BRISK Scale scores were highly correlated (r=0.84, pCommunication Content measure, a more comprehensive measure of risk communication competence. The BRISK Scale is a promising new brief observational measure of clinical risk communication competence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2012-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

  9. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    (ECG) abnormalities, heart rate, family history (of ischaemic heart disease), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio, walking duration and pace, leisure time physical activity, forced expiratory volume (FEV)1%pred, household income, education, vital exhaustion, high-density lipoprotein (HDL......AIM: European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed...

  10. Multivariate market risk evaluation between Malaysian Islamic stock index and sectoral indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sew Lai Ng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Without an efficient financial risk management, it may cause massive consequences to a financial institution as well as individual. Therefore, developing a methodology which gives precise estimates to reduce the exposure of risk to a minimum is of great importance. This paper uses an asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model to examine the return and volatility linkages between the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah (FBMS index and the sectoral indices under a normal market. The findings suggest that the FBMS plays a leading role in the mean return spillover effect. There is a strong evidence of significant transmission of past shocks, volatilities and leverage effects are observed on the current conditional variance-covariance in all the pair-wise models. These empirical results are helpful in quantifying the cross-market risk evaluation, risk minimizing weight and cross-market hedge ratio for strategizing appropriate portfolio selection.

  11. Application of a score system to evaluate the risk of malnutrition in a multiple hospital setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709

  12. Ethnic background and genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijun Jing

    Full Text Available The clinical use of genetic variation in the evaluation of cancer risk is expanding, and thus understanding how determinants of cancer susceptibility identified in one population can be applied to another is of growing importance. However there is considerable debate on the relevance of ethnic background in clinical genetics, reflecting both the significance and complexity of genetic heritage. We address this via a systematic review of reported associations with cancer risk for 82 markers in 68 studies across six different cancer types, comparing association results between ethnic groups and examining linkage disequilibrium between risk alleles and nearby genetic loci. We find that the relevance of ethnic background depends on the question. If asked whether the association of variants with disease risk is conserved across ethnic boundaries, we find that the answer is yes, the majority of markers show insignificant variability in association with cancer risk across ethnic groups. However if the question is whether a significant association between a variant and cancer risk is likely to reproduce, the answer is no, most markers do not validate in an ethnic group other than the discovery cohort's ancestry. This lack of reproducibility is not attributable to studies being inadequately populated due to low allele frequency in other ethnic groups. Instead, differences in local genomic structure between ethnic groups are associated with the strength of association with cancer risk and therefore confound interpretation of the implied physiologic association tracked by the disease allele. This suggest that a biological association for cancer risk alleles may be broadly consistent across ethnic boundaries, but reproduction of a clinical study in another ethnic group is uncommon, in part due to confounding genomic architecture. As clinical studies are increasingly performed globally this has important implications for how cancer risk stratifiers should be

  13. EVALUATION OF CORONARY RISK FACTORS IN PATIENTS WITH ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION : Cardiovascular disease is the commonest cause of death globally. Acute myocardial infarction generally occurs when coronary blood flow decreases abruptly after thrombotic occlusion of a coronary artery causing focal or massive necrosis of cardiac muscle. The risk factor concept implies that a person with one risk factor is more likely to develop clinical atherosclerotic event and is more likely to do so earlier than a person with no risk factors. The presence of multiple risk factors further accelerates th e atherosclerosis. Hence it is important to identify the major risk factors of coronary atherosclerosis in an individual with acute myocardial infarction so that further preventive measures can be taken in the form of lifestyle modification and pharmacothe rapy. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY: T his is a hospital based study. This study comprises of 100 cases of acute myocardial infarction admitted in ICCU under the department of medicine and 100 normal healthy controls in the age group of 29 - 85 years. Patients wi th the evidence of acute MI were diagnosed according to WHO criteria. Blood samples collected in vacutainers were analyzed for different biochemical parameters in the clinical biochemistry laboratory. RESULTS: Common risk factors have been evaluated in our study and we found that maximum MI patients were recorded in the age group of 51 - 60 years, with respect to other risk factors history like sex, majority of patients were males (82%, Sedentary life style (44%, Mixed dietary habits (84%, Family history o f IHD (6%, Dyslipidemia and Smoking (46%, Hypertension (31%, Diabetes (37%, Obesity (18%. In our study we found that 81% of the patients of acute MI had multiple risk factors. CONCLUSION: Thus from the study we can conclude that risk factors play a ma jor role in the genesis of coronary heart disease. Modification of these factors by pharmacotherapy, diet, physical exercises and behavioral therapy can improve the

  14. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU HuaiZhi; WEN ZhiPing; HU Jiang; WU ZhongRu

    2009-01-01

    For many dam projects in China, the 50-year designed life time is coming to an end. It is urgent to study the theory and method to evaluate the dam service life. In this paper, firstly, the probability theory of fuzzy event and time-varying effect theory are used to analyze the time-variety of various risk factors in the process of dam operations. A method is proposed to quantify the above time-variety and a model to describe the fuzzy time-varying risk probability for the dam structure is also built. Secondly, the information entropy theory is used to analyze the uncertain degree relationship between the characteristic value of membership function and fuzzy risk probability, and a mathematical method is presented to calculate the time-varying risk probability accordingly. Thirdly, the relation mode between time-varying risk probability and service life is discussed. Based on this relation mode and the acceptable risk probability of dams in China, a method is put forward to evaluate and forecast the dam service life.Finally, the proposed theory and method are used to analyze one concrete dam. The dynamic variability and mutation feature of the dam risk probability are analyzed. The remaining service life of this dam is forecasted. The obtained results can provide technology support for the project management department to make treatment measures of engineering and reasonably arrange reinforce cost. The principles in this paper have wide applicability and can be used in risk analysis for slope instability and other fields.

  15. Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

  16. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change.

  17. [Characteristics of speciation and evaluation of ecological risk of heavy metals in sewage sludge of Guangzhou].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Peng-Ran; Lei, Yong-Qian; Cai, Da-Chuan; Zhang, Tao; Wu, Rui; Pan, Jia-Chuan

    2014-02-01

    Contents of heavy metals in different sewage sludges were analyzed and the speciation distribution and bioavailability of heavy metals were investigated, and the risk assessment code (RAC) and toxicity characteristic leaching procedure for solid waste were used to evaluate the potential ecological risk and leaching toxicity risk of heavy metals in sludge samples, respectively. The results showed that contents of Cu, Cr, Pb and Zn were high and presented a great difference by different sources in sewage sludges. Most of heavy metals existed in non-residual fractions and percentages of the mobile fraction (acid soluble fraction) of heavy metals in acidic sludge were higher. According to the results of single extraction, 1 mol x L(-1) NaOAc solution (pH 5.0) and 0.02 mol x L(-1) EDTA + 0.5 mol x L(-1) NH4OAc solution (pH 4.6) were suitable for evaluating bioavailable heavy metals in acidic and alkaline sludge, respectively. Percentages of bioavailable heavy metals were higher with the stronger of sludge acidity. The mobile ability of heavy metals resulted in the high ecological risk of sludge samples, and the bioavailability of heavy metals caused acidic sludges with a very high ecological risk but alkaline sludges with the middle ecological risk. Leaching toxicity risk was very high in sludge samples except domestic sewage sludge. After the removal of bioavailable heavy metals, leaching toxicity risk of sludge samples was still high in spite of its decrease; however, part type of sludges could be implemented landfill disposal.

  18. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  19. New Metrics for Evaluating Technical Benefits and Risks of DGs Increasing Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akbari, Mohammad Amin; Aghaei, Jamshid; Barani, Mostafa

    2017-01-01

    and risks should be qualified and quantified. This paper introduces several probabilistic indices to evaluate the potential operational effects of increasing penetration of renewable DG units such as wind power and photovoltaic on rural distribution network with the aid of evaluating technical benefits...... and risks trade-offs. A probabilistic generation-load model is suggested to calculate these indices which combine a large number of possible operating conditions of renewable DG units with their probabilities. Temporal and annual indices of voltage profile and line flow related attributes such as Interest...

  20. Credit risk evaluation using adaptive Lq penalty SVM with Gauss kernel

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to improve the performance of support vector machine (SVM) applications in the field of credit risk evaluation, an adaptive Lq SVM model with Gauss kernel (ALqG-SVM) is proposed to evaluate credit risks. The non-adaptive penalty of the object function is extended to (0, 2] to increase classification accuracy. To further improve the generalization performance of the proposed model, the Gauss kernel is introduced, thus the non-linear classification problem can be linearly separated in higher dimensio...

  1. Evaluation of the risk of venous thromboembolism after quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among US females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yih, W Katherine; Greene, Sharon K; Zichittella, Lauren; Kulldorff, Martin; Baker, Meghan A; de Jong, Jill L O; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Griffin, Marie R; Jin, Robert; Lin, Nancy D; McMahill-Walraven, Cheryl N; Reidy, Megan; Selvam, Nandini; Selvan, Mano S; Nguyen, Michael D

    2016-01-02

    After the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV4) in 2006, reports suggesting a possible association with venous thromboembolism (VTE) emerged from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Our objective was to determine whether HPV4 increased VTE risk. The subjects were 9-26-year-old female members of five data partners in the FDA's Mini-Sentinel pilot project receiving HPV4 during 2006-2013. The outcome was radiologically confirmed first-ever VTE among potential cases identified by diagnosis codes in administrative data during Days 1-77 after HPV4 vaccination. With a self-controlled risk interval design, we compared counts of first-ever VTE in risk intervals (Days 1-28 and Days 1-7 post-vaccination) and control intervals (Days 36-56 for Dose 1 and Days 36-63 for Doses 2 and 3). Combined hormonal contraceptive use was treated as a potential confounder. The main analyses were: (1) unadjusted for time-varying VTE risk from contraceptive use, (2) unadjusted but restricted to cases without such time-varying risk, and (3) adjusted by incorporating the modeled risk of VTE by week of contraceptive use in the analysis. Of 279 potential VTE cases identified following 1,423,399 HPV4 doses administered, 225 had obtainable charts, and 53 were confirmed first-ever VTE. All 30 with onsets in risk or control intervals had known risk factors for VTE. VTE risk was not elevated in the first 7 or 28 days following any dose of HPV in any analysis (e.g. relative risk estimate (95% CI) from both unrestricted analyses, for all-doses, 28-day risk interval: 0.7 (0.3-1.4)). Temporal scan statistics found no clustering of VTE onsets after any dose. Thus, we found no evidence of an increased risk of VTE associated with HPV4 among 9-26-year-old females. A particular strength of this evaluation was its control for both time-invariant and contraceptive-related time-varying potential confounding.

  2. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...

  3. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  4. The Modular Assessment of Risk for Imminent Suicide (MARIS): A proof of concept for a multi-informant tool for evaluation of short-term suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawes, Mariah; Yaseen, Zimri; Briggs, Jessica; Galynker, Igor

    2017-01-01

    To date, no diagnostic tool has demonstrated clinical value for the assessment of short-term suicide risk among high-risk individuals. To this end we have developed the Modular Assessment of Risk for Imminent Suicide (MARIS), a modular patient and clinician informed risk evaluation instrument. Here we assess its predictive validity for suicidal behavior (SB) in psychiatric patients following discharge from an inpatient unit. The MARIS and a psychological test battery were administered to 136 adult psychiatric patients hospitalized for high risk of suicide. Eighty-six participants had complete data at discharge and 59 (69.8%) were reached for follow-up. Logistic regressions were used to assess the predictive validity of the MARIS for SB over the 4-8weeks following hospital discharge and its incremental predictive validity over standard risk factors. Patients who exhibited SB in the period between initial assessment and follow-up had significantly higher MARIS scores. ROC analysis indicated good sensitivity and specificity of MARIS in identifying risk (OR=19). Further, MARIS total score significantly improved predictive validity by the standard risk factors when added to a model comprising global depression severity, hopelessness, and lifetime number of suicide attempts, and was the only factor that approached independent significance. The MARIS appears to be a practical and effective tool for detecting short-term suicide risk following hospital discharge, supporting the validity of modular multi-informant approach to suicide risk evaluation. Replication of these findings and further investigation of the applications of such an approach are warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluation of Investment Risks in CBA with Monte Carlo Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Korytárová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are at the core of any development strategy. Economic growth and welfare depend on productive capital, infrastructure, human capital, knowledge, total factor productivity and the quality of institutions. Decision-making process on the selection of suitable projects in the public sector is in some aspects more difficult than in the private sector. Evaluating projects on the basis of their financial profitability, where the basic parameter is the value of the potential profit, can be misleading in these cases. One of the basic objectives of the allocation of public resources is respecting of the 3E principle (Economy, Effectiveness, Efficiency in their whole life cycle. The life cycle of the investment projects consists of four main phases. The first pre-investment phase is very important for decision-making process whether to accept or reject a public project for its realization. A well-designed feasibility study as well as cost-benefit analysis (CBA in this phase are important assumptions for future success of the project. A future financial and economical CF which represent the fundamental basis for calculation of economic effectiveness indicators are formed and modelled in these documents. This paper deals with the possibility to calculate the financial and economic efficiency of the public investment projects more accurately by simulation methods used.

  6. Risk and information evaluation of prioritized genes for complex traits: application to bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Chung-Feng; Chuang, Li-Chung; Kuo, Po-Hsiu

    2014-10-01

    Many susceptibility genes for complex traits were identified without conclusive findings. There is a strong need to integrate rapidly accumulated genomic data from multi-dimensional platforms, and to conduct risk evaluation for potential therapeutic and diagnostic usages. We set up an algorithm to computationally search for optimal weight-vector for various data sources, while minimized potential noises. Through gene-prioritization framework, combined scores for the resulting prioritized gene-set were calculated using a genome-wide association (GWA) dataset, following with evaluation using weighted genetic risk score and risk-attributed information using an independent GWA dataset. The significance of association of GWA data was corrected for gene length. Enriched functional pathways were identified for the prioritized gene-set using the Gene Ontology analysis. We illustrated our framework with bipolar disorder. 233 prioritized genes were identified from 10,830 candidates that curated from six platforms. The prioritized genes were significantly enriched (P(adjusted) evaluation demonstrated higher weighted genetic risk score in bipolar patients than controls (P-values ranged from 0.002 to 3.8 × 10(-6)). Substantial risk-information (71%) was extracted from prioritized genes for bipolar illness than other candidate-gene sets. Our evidence-based prioritized gene-set provides opportunity to explore the complex network and to conduct follow-up basic and clinical studies for complex traits.

  7. Risk-based evaluation of total petroleum hydrocarbons in vapor intrusion studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

    2013-06-13

    This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum.

  8. Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Brewer

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum.

  9. 考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估方法%Supply Risk Evaluation Method Considering Risk Propagation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张川; 杨文雯; 于超

    2015-01-01

    针对考虑风险传导情形的供应风险评估问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的供应风险评估方法。该方法中,通过识别引起供应链中各节点企业供应风险的关键风险因素,构建一个贝叶斯网络,并依据贝叶斯公式计算考虑风险传导情形下供应风险的发生概率,在此基础上,对考虑风险传导的供应风险进行评估。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。%In this paper, a method for supply risk evaluation based on Bayesian network is proposed to solve the supply risk evaluation problem considering the risk propagation.In this method, firstly, a Bayesian network is constructed via identifying key risk factors which may cause the supply risk of each node enterprise.According to Bayes formula, the probability of supply risk considering the risk propagation is calculated.On this basis, supply risk is evaluated considering the risk propagation.Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

  10. Evaluation of high-risk smoking practices used by the homeless.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloot, C B; Vredevoe, D L; Brecht, M L

    1993-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of high-risk smoking practices in a homeless population. High-risk cigarette smoking practices include misuse of tobacco products or alternative methods of cigarette smoking that increase the likelihood of ingestion of toxic substances and infectious agents that can potentiate the hazards associated with cigarette smoking. An 84-item questionnaire was developed by the researcher to measure these practices. Fifty-six male and three female homeless people were interviewed in downtown Los Angeles. The most common high-risk smoking practices were cigarette sharing (86%); smoking cigarettes remade from discarded cigarette butts and filters (71%); smoking cigarettes remade by others (63%); smoking discarded cigarette butts (63%); blocking filter vents (24%); using things other than tobacco, such as discarded cigarette filters and drugs, in remaking cigarettes (22%); and smoking discarded cigarette filters (19%). These high-risk smoking practices pose a greater risk of exposure to toxins trapped in filters and tobacco remains and increase the threat of infectious disease transmission. The long-term effects of high-risk smoking practices among the homeless have potential economic implications for society.

  11. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Bladon, Kevin D; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-André; Mathieu, Jérôme; Flannigan, Mike D

    2018-01-01

    The large mediatic coverage of recent massive wildfires across the world has emphasized the vulnerability of freshwater resources. The extensive hydrogeomorphic effects from a wildfire can impair the ability of watersheds to provide safe drinking water to downstream communities and high-quality water to maintain riverine ecosystem health. Safeguarding water use for human activities and ecosystems is required for sustainable development; however, no global assessment of wildfire impacts on water supply is currently available. Here, we provide the first global evaluation of wildfire risks to water security, in the form of a spatially explicit index. We adapted the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response risk analysis framework to select a comprehensive set of indicators of fire activity and water availability, which we then aggregated to a single index of wildfire-water risk using a simple additive weighted model. Our results show that water security in many regions of the world is potentially vulnerable, regardless of socio-economic status. However, in developing countries, a critical component of the risk is the lack of socio-economic capability to respond to disasters. Our work highlights the importance of addressing wildfire-induced risks in the development of water security policies; the geographic differences in the components of the overall risk could help adapting those policies to different regional contexts. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Evaluation of dysphagia risk, nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly patients with Alzheimer's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goes, Vanessa Fernanda; Mello-Carpes, Pâmela Billig; de Oliveira, Lilian Oliveira; Hack, Jaqueline; Magro, Marcela; Bonini, Juliana Sartori

    2014-01-01

    Objective to evaluate the risk of dysphagia and its relationship with the stage of Alzheimer's Disease, as well as the relationship between the risk of dysphagia and nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly people with Alzheimer's disease. Methods the sample consisted of 30 subjects of both genders with probable Alzheimer's disease. The stage of the disease, nutritional status, energy intake, and risk of dysphagia were assessed. Results it was found that increased risk of dysphagia is associated with the advance in the stages of Alzheimer's disease and that even patients in the early stages of disease have a slight risk of developing dysphagia. No association was found between nutritional status and the risk of dysphagia. High levels of inadequate intake of micronutrients were also verified in the patients. Conclusion an association between dysphagia and the development of Alzheimer's disease was found. The results indicate the need to monitor the presence of dysphagia and the micronutrient intake in patients with Alzheimer's disease. PMID:26107841

  13. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  14. Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongtang Xie

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.

  15. Evaluation of dysphagia risk, nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly patients with Alzheimer's

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Fernanda Goes

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the risk of dysphagia and its relationship with the stage of Alzheimer's Disease, as well as the relationship between the risk of dysphagia and nutritional status and caloric intake in elderly people with Alzheimer's disease.METHODS: the sample consisted of 30 subjects of both genders with probable Alzheimer's disease. The stage of the disease, nutritional status, energy intake, and risk of dysphagia were assessed.RESULTS: it was found that increased risk of dysphagia is associated with the advance in the stages of Alzheimer's disease and that even patients in the early stages of disease have a slight risk of developing dysphagia. No association was found between nutritional status and the risk of dysphagia. High levels of inadequate intake of micronutrients were also verified in the patients.CONCLUSION: an association between dysphagia and the development of Alzheimer's disease was found. The results indicate the need to monitor the presence of dysphagia and the micronutrient intake in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

  16. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  17. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  18. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Evaluation FAQs Additional Evaluation Resources Health & Academics Anti-Bullying Policies and Enumeration: An Infobrief for Local Education ... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the ...

  19. A Multicriteria Risk Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forest Management Alternatives on Forest Health in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervé Jactel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA has been developed to help decision makers choose between actions that require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range of management intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs (i.e., close to nature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomass production on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental, Atlantic and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies relevant to wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow and biotic (insect pests, pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by corresponding likelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, risk was lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the most damaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk, due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespective of tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative

  20. Lymphedema Risk Reduction Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... now! Position Paper: Lymphedema Risk Reduction Practices Category: Position Papers Tags: Risks Archives Treatment risk reduction garments surgery obesity infection blood pressure trauma morbid obesity body weight ...

  1. The application of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for risk stratification in Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Borde

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for predicting mortality and STS risk-score for predicting morbidity in Indian patients after cardiac surgery. Materials and Methods: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores were obtained pre-operatively for 498 consecutive patients. The patients were followed for mortality and various morbidities. The calibration of the scoring systems was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discriminative capacity was estimated by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: The mortality was 1.6%. For EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score C-statics of 5.43 and 6.11 were obtained indicating satisfactory model fit for both the scores. Area under ROC was 0.69 and 0.65 for EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score with P values of 0.068 and 0.15, respectively, indicating poor discriminatory power. Good fit and discrimination was obtained for renal failure, long-stay in hospital, prolonged ventilator support and deep sternal wound infection but the scores failed in predicting risk of reoperation and stroke. Mortality risk was correctly estimated in low ( 5% patients by both scoring systems. Conclusions: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores have satisfactory calibration power in Indian patients but their discriminatory power is poor. Mortality risk was over-estimated by both the scoring systems in high-risk patients. The present study highlights the need for forming a national database and formulating risk stratification tools to provide better quality care to cardiac surgical patients in India.

  2. [Evaluation of risk factors for neurosensory deafness in workers engaged into gas transport enterprise in Far North].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikonnikova, N V; Boiko, I V; Klitsenko, O A

    2015-01-01

    Complex study of health state covered 666 workers of gas transport enterprise situated in Far North of Russian Federation, revealed risk factors of neurosensory deafness. Neurosensory deafness risk depends on intensity of occupational noise and length of service under exposure to noise, on worker's age, presence of arterial hypertension and type of lipid metabolism disorders. The study found no correlation between neurosensory deafness risk and duration of residence in Far North. The authors suggested a mathematic model to evaluate risk of neurosensory deafness.

  3. Dutch dikes, and risk hikes; a thematic policy evaluation of risks of flooding in the Netherlands. Extended summary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MNP; MNP

    2005-01-01

    Dams in the Netherlands have never been stronger so the probability of encountering floods from rivers or on the coast similar to the great flood in the south-western part of the Netherlands in 1953 has declined. However, the risks of casualties and economic damage from flooding have become much gr

  4. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  5. Benefit-risk Evaluation for Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Scott R; Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Jiang, Hongyu; Hujer, Andrea M; Hujer, Kristine M; Manca, Claudia; Hill, Carol; Jacobs, Michael R; Chen, Liang; Patel, Robin; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Bonomo, Robert A

    2016-09-15

    The medical community needs systematic and pragmatic approaches for evaluating the benefit-risk trade-offs of diagnostics that assist in medical decision making. Benefit-Risk Evaluation of Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME) is a strategy for pragmatic evaluation of diagnostics designed to supplement traditional approaches. BED-FRAME evaluates diagnostic yield and addresses 2 key issues: (1) that diagnostic yield depends on prevalence, and (2) that different diagnostic errors carry different clinical consequences. As such, evaluating and comparing diagnostics depends on prevalence and the relative importance of potential errors. BED-FRAME provides a tool for communicating the expected clinical impact of diagnostic application and the expected trade-offs of diagnostic alternatives. BED-FRAME is a useful fundamental supplement to the standard analysis of diagnostic studies that will aid in clinical decision making.

  6. Cancer risk evaluation of brick kiln workers exposed to dust bound PAHs in Punjab province (Pakistan).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal, Atif; Malik, Riffat Naseem; Martellini, Tania; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2014-09-15

    Principal objective of this study was to evaluate the health risks of brick kiln workers to dust bound PAHs exposure in Punjab province (Pakistan). To this aim, surface dust samples were collected from brick kiln units located in Chung Khurd (Lahore city), Gujranwala city and Sohra village (in the vicinity of Gujranwala). The highest ΣPAH levels were measured in the dust samples collected in Sohdra village (mean 2578 ng g(-1) d.w., range 302-6757 ng g(-1) d.w.) followed by Gujranwala city (mean 957, range 16.1-1963 ng g(-1) d.w.) and Chung Khurd (mean 882, range 692-1007 ng g(-1) d.w.). Source identification using diagnostic ratios and principal component analysis identified coal and wood combustion as the major PAHs sources. The cancer risk model (CR-Model 1) and the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk model (ILCR-Model 2) were used to evaluate the cancer risk assessment via ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways. Both models suggested that brick kiln workers (including adults and children) were exposed to high-potential carcinogenic risk via both ingestion and dermal contact pathways during the brick making process. This study also emphasizes the need for pollution control in the brick kiln industry of Pakistan.

  7. Epidemiological geomatics in evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan: introducing population weighted raster maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersson Neil

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Evaluation of mine risk education in Afghanistan used population weighted raster maps as an evaluation tool to assess mine education performance, coverage and costs. A stratified last-stage random cluster sample produced representative data on mine risk and exposure to education. Clusters were weighted by the population they represented, rather than the land area. A "friction surface" hooked the population weight into interpolation of cluster-specific indicators. The resulting population weighted raster contours offer a model of the population effects of landmine risks and risk education. Five indicator levels ordered the evidence from simple description of the population-weighted indicators (level 0, through risk analysis (levels 1–3 to modelling programme investment and local variations (level 4. Using graphic overlay techniques, it was possible to metamorphose the map, portraying the prediction of what might happen over time, based on the causality models developed in the epidemiological analysis. Based on a lattice of local site-specific predictions, each cluster being a small universe, the "average" prediction was immediately interpretable without losing the spatial complexity.

  8. Application of systematic coronary risk evaluation chart to identify chronic myeloid leukemia patients at risk of cardiovascular diseases during nilotinib treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breccia, Massimo; Molica, Matteo; Zacheo, Irene; Serrao, Alessandra; Alimena, Giuliana

    2015-03-01

    Nilotinib is currently approved for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in chronic (CP) and accelerated phase (AP) after failure of imatinib and in newly diagnosed patients. Atherosclerotic events were retrospectively reported in patients with baseline cardiovascular risk factors during nilotinib treatment. We estimated the risk of developing atherosclerotic events in patients treated with second or first-line nilotinib, with a median follow-up of 48 months, by retrospectively applying the SCORE chart proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and evaluating risk factors at baseline (diabetes, obesity, smoking, and hypertension). Overall, we enrolled in the study 82 CP patients treated frontline (42 CP patients at the dose of 600 mg BID) or after failure of other tyrosine kinase inhibitors (40 CP patients treated with 400 mg BID). The SCORE chart is based on the stratification of sex (male vs female), age (from 40 to 65 years), smoker vs non-smoker, systolic pressure (from 120 to 180 mm Hg), and cholesterol (measured in mmol/l, from 150 to 300 mg/dl). For statistical purposes, we considered patients subdivided in low, moderate, high (with a score >5), and very high risk. There were 48 males and 34 females, median age 51 years (range 22-84). According to WHO classification, 42 patients were classified as normal weight (BMI 30). Retrospective classification according to the SCORE chart revealed that 27 patients (33 %) were in the low-risk category, 30 patients (36 %) in the moderate risk category, and 24 patients (29 %) in the high risk. As regards risk factors, we revealed that 17 patients (20.7 %) had a concomitant type II controlled diabetes (without organ damage), 23 patients (28 %) were smokers, 29 patients (35 %) were receiving concomitant drugs for hypertension, and 15 patients (18 %) had concomitant dyslipidemia. Overall, the cumulative incidence of atherosclerotic events at 48 months was 8.5 % (95 % CI, 4.55-14.07): None of the low-risk

  9. 76 FR 36544 - Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications; Public Workshop; Request for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-22

    ... produced by the consumption of that tobacco product, that may affect a disease or health-related condition... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Scientific Evaluation of Modified Risk Tobacco Product... of public workshop; request for comments. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Center for...

  10. Evaluation of the Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized clinical trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Lars; Paludan-Müller, Asger Sand; Laursen, David R. T.;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Cochrane risk of bias tool for randomized clinical trials was introduced in 2008 and has frequently been commented on and used in systematic reviews. We wanted to evaluate the tool by reviewing published comments on its strengths and challenges and by describing and analysing how ...

  11. Digital Risk Inventory and Evaluation (RIE) : a Dutch approach offering valuable support for small business owners

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeuwsen, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch Working Conditions Act requires employers to perform a Risk Inventory and Evaluation (RIE). Until recently, small business owners (SMEs) in particular were unhappy about this rather time-consuming obligation. However, the introduction of digital RIE instruments disseminated through the web

  12. 75 FR 2545 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-15

    ... HUMAN SERVICES National Institutes of Health National Toxicology Program (NTP); Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR); Availability of the Final Expert Panel Report on Soy... whether exposure to soy infant formula is a hazard to human development. The expert panel also...

  13. Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilioli, G.; Schrader, G.; Baker, R.H.A.;

    2014-01-01

    . By including both the structural and functional components of the environment threatened by invasive alien species (IAS), in particular plant pests, we propose an environmental risk assessment scheme that addresses this complexity. Structural components are investigated by evaluating the impacts of the plant...

  14. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  15. Evaluation of the Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized clinical trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L; Paludan-Müller, A. S.; Laursen, David

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Cochrane risk of bias tool for randomized clinical trials was introduced in 2008 and has frequently been commented on and used in systematic reviews. We wanted to evaluate the tool by reviewing published comments on its strengths and challenges and by describing and analysing how ...

  16. Combining crop modelling with economic risk analysis for the evaluation of crop management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lansigan, F.P.; Pandey, S.; Bouman, B.A.M.

    1997-01-01

    An agro-ecological approach is presented for the evaluation of alternative management options for rice production in the light of farmers attitudes towards risk. The approach combined eco-physiological crop growth modelling with stochastic dominance theory and is illustrated for a case study of rain

  17. Process evaluation of a tailored intervention programme of cardiovascular risk management in general practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntink, E.; Wensing, M.; Timmers, I.M.; Lieshout, J. van

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A tailored implementation programme to improve cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) in general practice had little impact on outcomes. The questions in this process evaluation concerned (1) impact on counselling skills and CVRM knowledge of practice nurses, (2) their use of the various

  18. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  19. Evaluation of an Alcohol Risk Reduction Program (PRIME for Life) in Young Swedish Military Conscripts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgren, Mats A.; Kallmen, Hakan; Leifman, Hakan; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Andreasson, Sven

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the PRIME for Life risk reduction program in reducing alcohol consumption and improving knowledge and attitudes towards alcohol use in male Swedish military conscripts, aged 18 to 22 years. Design/methodology/approach: A quasi-experimental design was used in which 1,371…

  20. A Formative Evaluation of the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk Coaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Jonathan R.; Smith, Burgess; Hawkey, Kyle R.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Borden, Lynne M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we describe the results of a formative evaluation of a coaching model designed to support recipients of funding through the Children, Youth, and Families at Risk (CYFAR) initiative. Results indicate that CYFAR coaches draw from a variety of types of coaching and that CYFAR principle investigators (PIs) are generally satisfied with…

  1. Digital Risk Inventory and Evaluation (RIE) : a Dutch approach offering valuable support for small business owners

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeuwsen, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch Working Conditions Act requires employers to perform a Risk Inventory and Evaluation (RIE). Until recently, small business owners (SMEs) in particular were unhappy about this rather time-consuming obligation. However, the introduction of digital RIE instruments disseminated through the web

  2. Some Methodological Problems, Solutions and Findings from Evaluating Risk Reduction Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Harris K.; Di Nitto, Diana

    1982-01-01

    Reports three methodological problems found in evaluating five risk reduction projects in Florida. Found that activities aimed at producing positive self-awareness and exposure to rewarding nondrug activities taught with a mixture of didactic and discussion methods and exercises are best. (Author/JAC)

  3. Developing a multi-component immune model for evaluating the risk of respiratory illness in athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleeson, Maree; Pyne, David B; Elkington, Lisa J; Hall, Sharron T; Attia, John R; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Wood, Lisa G; Callister, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Clinical and laboratory identification of the underlying risk of respiratory illness in athletes has proved problematic. The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical data, combined with immune responses to standardised exercise protocols and genetic cytokine polymorphism status, could identify the risk of respiratory illness (symptoms) in a cohort of highly-trained athletes. Male endurance athletes (n=16; VO2max 66.5 ± 5.1 mL.kg-1.min-1) underwent a clinical evaluation of known risk factors by a physician and comprehensive laboratory analysis of immune responses both at rest and after two cycling ergometer tests: 60 min at 65% VO2max (LONG); and 6 x 3 min intervals at 90% VO2max (INTENSE). Blood tests were performed to determine Epstein Barr virus (EBV) status and DNA was genotyped for a panel of cytokine gene polymorphisms. Saliva was collected for measurement of IgA and detection of EBV DNA. Athletes were then followed for 9 months for self-reported episodes of respiratory illness, with confirmation of the underlying cause by a sports physician. There were no associations with risk of respiratory illness identified for any parameter assessed in the clinical evaluations. The laboratory parameters associated with an increased risk of respiratory illnesses in highly-trained athletes were cytokine gene polymorphisms for the high expression of IL-6 and IFN-ɣ; expression of EBV-DNA in saliva; and low levels of salivary IgA concentration. A genetic risk score was developed for the cumulative number of minor alleles for the cytokines evaluated. Athletes prone to recurrent respiratory illness were more likely to have immune disturbances that allow viral reactivation, and a genetic predisposition to pro-inflammatory cytokine responses to intense exercise.

  4. Evaluation of the relative risk of stroke in patients with hypertension using cerebrovascular hemodynamic accumulative score

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jiuyi; WANG Guiqing; GUO Jiping; CAO Yifeng; WANG Yan; YANG Yongju; YU Xuehai

    2007-01-01

    The relative risk(RR)of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by using synthetic index of cerebrovascular hemodynamics.A total of 7,371 patients with hypertension with ages≥40 years were selected from a population-based cohort study of the risk factors for stroke.The data on the baseline investigation of risk factors,the determination of cerebrovascular hemodynamic parameters (CVHP),and stroke follow-up were analyzed.The RR of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by CVHP scores.Univariate analysis indicated that hypertension,complicated by other risk factors,had significant statistical association with the onset of stroke.RRS for stroke when hypertension complicated with decrease of hemodynamic scores,heart disease,cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption were 4.93(95%CI,3.26-7.45),1.90(95%CI,1.36-2.66),1.99(95%CI,1.42-2.79)and 1.73(95%CI,1.19-2.53)respectively.In multivariate analysis,hemodynamic score,age,sex,cigarette smoking,family history of stroke and systolic blood pressure were selected by the Cox regression for inclusion in the final analysis.Among them,the RR of hemodynamic score was highest.The analysis of doseresponse relationships indicated that when the hemodynamic scores in patients with hypertension were lower than 75 points,the RR of stroke at 75,60,45,30 and 15 points were 2.85,4.43,4.54,5.40 and 9.88,respectively.The risk of stroke in patients with hypertension is closely associated with hemodynamic impairment and the hemodynamic score may be used for quantitative evaluation of relative risks of stroke.

  5. Determining Risk - How to Evaluate the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.

    2011-12-01

    As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high

  6. Approaches to acceptable risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-04-30

    Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.

  7. Risks: diagnosing and eliminating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy A. Tikhomirov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp

  8. Does flood risk information held within at risk population always have a positive impact? An evaluation of the effects of French regulatory tools in Orleans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jadot Julien

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available French law on major risk preventive information for population setup the objective to make the citizen able to act for his own safety and to participate through his behaviour to the civil security. To reach this objective, the policymakers developed 4 regulatory tools that have to be implemented by the local authorities. These 4 tools do not meet the success factors of risk communication measures aiming at inducing behavioural adaptation to face risks. This, added to the fact that people who die in the last floods events in France lost their lives due to either a lack of knowledge of the risk or to a risk taking behaviour, led us to question the impact of the preventive information regulatory tools. For the needs of our study we developed a risk perception and behaviour scale, helping us to classify the people of our sample. Our evaluation in Orléans shows that very few people know the regulatory tools and that their impact is quite low, far from the policymakers’ expectations. This highlight the real necessity to innovate in the field of flood risk communication.

  9. Risk-evaluation of Hi-tech Enterprise in the Process of Approaching Global Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiang Laisheng; Guo Yajun; Li Zhanfang

    2007-01-01

    In the high technology industry, small and medium sized technology enterprises (SMSTEs) play a pivotal role in advancing the whole industry. To achieve sustainable development, they need to extend their scope of business activities beyond a national view and exploit international market actively to meet international competitions that increase quickly in the form of allocating resources within the scope of the world. However, the SMSTEs are also facing risks associated with themselves during the process of exploiting international market owing to their own restrictions, so what they should do is to consider risk evaluations in exploiting the international market.

  10. Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

    2015-01-01

    Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of

  11. Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    covariance shape, reaction parameters pertaining to aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes respectively as well as the dose response parameters. Even though the final result assumes a relatively simple form, few numerical quadratures are required in order to evaluate the trajectory moments of the solute plume. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis we apply the methodology to a hypothetical case study. The scenario investigated is made by an aquifer which constitutes a water supply for a population where a continuous source of NAPL contaminant feeds a steady plume. The risk analysis is limited to carcinogenic compounds for which the well-known linear relation for human risk is assumed. Analysis performed shows few interesting findings: the risk distribution is strictly dependent on the pore scale dynamics that trigger dilution and mixing; biodegradation may involve a significant reduction of the risk.

  12. Thyroid Cancer Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Prevented? Thyroid Cancer Causes, Risk Factors, and Prevention Thyroid Cancer Risk Factors A risk factor is anything that ... Cancer? Can Thyroid Cancer Be Prevented? More In Thyroid Cancer About Thyroid Cancer Causes, Risk Factors, and Prevention ...

  13. Pulmonary complications of liver transplantation: radiological appearance and statistical evaluation of risk factors in 300 cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Golfieri, R.; Giampalma, E.; d' Arienzo, P.; Maffei, M.; Muzzi, C.; Tancioni, S.; Gavelli, G. [Dipartimento Clinico di Scienze Radiologiche ed Istocitopatologiche, Policlinico S.Orsola, Universita di Bologna, Via Massarenti 9, I-40138 Bologna (Italy); Morselli Labate, A.M.; Sama, C. [Dipartimento di Medicina Interna e Gastroenterologia, Policlinico S.Orsola, Universita di Bologna, Via Massarenti 9, I-40138 Bologna (Italy); Jovine, E.; Grazi, G.L.; Mazziotti, A.; Cavallari, A. [Dipartimento di Discipline Chirurgiche, Rianimatorie e dei Trapianti, Policlinico S.Orsola, Universita di Bologna, Via Massarenti 9, I-40138 Bologna (Italy)

    2000-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence, radiographic appearance, time of onset, outcome and risk factors of non-infectious and infectious pulmonary complications following liver transplantation. Chest X-ray features of 300 consecutive patients who had undergone 333 liver transplants over an 11-year period were analysed: the type of pulmonary complication, the infecting pathogens and the mean time of their occurrence are described. The main risk factors for lung infections were quantified through univariate and multivariate statistical analysis. Non-infectious pulmonary abnormalities (atelectasis and/or pleural effusion: 86.7%) and pulmonary oedema (44.7%) appeared during the first postoperative week. Infectious pneumonia was observed in 13.7%, with a mortality of 36.6%. Bacterial and viral pneumonia made up the bulk of infections (63.4 and 29.3%, respectively) followed by fungal infiltrates (24.4%). A fairly good correlation between radiological chest X-ray pattern, time of onset and the cultured microorganisms has been observed in all cases. In multivariate analysis, persistent non-infectious abnormalities and pulmonary oedema were identified as the major independent predictors of posttransplant pneumonia, followed by prolonged assisted mechanical ventilation and traditional caval anastomosis. A ''pneumonia-risk score'' was calculated: low-risk score (<2.25) predicts 2.7% of probability of the onset of infections compared with 28.7% of high-risk (>3.30) population. The ''pneumonia-risk score'' identifies a specific group of patients in whom closer radiographic monitoring is recommended. In addition, a highly significant correlation (p<0.001) was observed between pneumonia-risk score and the expected survival, thus confirming pulmonary infections as a major cause of death in OLT recipients. (orig.)

  14. Evaluating the Risk of Re-identification of Patients from Hospital Prescription Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emam, Khaled El; Dankar, Fida K; Vaillancourt, Régis; Roffey, Tyson; Lysyk, Mary

    2009-07-01

    Pharmacies often provide prescription records to private research firms, on the assumption that these records are de-identified (i.e., identifying information has been removed). However, concerns have been expressed about the potential that patients can be re-identified from such records. Recently, a large private research firm requested prescription records from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO), as part of a larger effort to develop a database of hospital prescription records across Canada. To evaluate the ability to re-identify patients from CHEO'S prescription records and to determine ways to appropriately de-identify the data if the risk was too high. The risk of re-identification was assessed for 18 months' worth of prescription data. De-identification algorithms were developed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level while maintaining the quality of the data. The probability of patients being re-identified from the original variables and data set requested by the private research firm was deemed quite high. A new de-identified record layout was developed, which had an acceptable level of re-identification risk. The new approach involved replacing the admission and discharge dates with the quarter and year of admission and the length of stay in days, reporting the patient's age in weeks, and including only the first character of the patient's postal code. Additional requirements were included in the data-sharing agreement with the private research firm (e.g., audit requirements and a protocol for notification of a breach of privacy). Without a formal analysis of the risk of re-identification, assurances of data anonymity may not be accurate. A formal risk analysis at one hospital produced a clinically relevant data set that also protects patient privacy and allows the hospital pharmacy to explicitly manage the risks of breach of patient privacy.

  15. Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

  16. Evaluation of population-level ecological risks of fish-eating birds to dioxinlike PCBs exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naito, Wataru; Yoshida, Kikuo [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Research Center for Chemical Risk Management, Tsukuba (Japan); Murata, Mariko [National Institute of Technology and Evaluation, Tokyo (Japan)

    2004-09-15

    Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/DFs) and some non- and monoortho- polychlorinated biphenyl congeners that can attain planar configuration (dioxinlike PCBs), which are chemically stable and persistent, are thought to be biomagnified via foodchain. Many studies have revealed that higher levels of these compounds have been observed in fish-eating birds, a top consumer in aquatic biota. Among these compounds, Dioxinlike PCBs has contributed more than 80% of the total TEQs found in eggs of fish-eating birds. In order to evaluate the effects of these compounds on fish-eating birds, therefore, it is important to elucidate exposure pathways and characteristics of dioxinlike PCBs. The conventional ecological risk assessment method of chemicals entails comparing the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) determined from laboratory toxicity tests with the predicted or observed concentration in a target organism or a surrounding environmental media. Utilizing such a result of simplistic individual-level effect to draw conclusions regarding chemical effects on population is, however, questionable. Since risk management decisions should be based on protecting populations, the methods for population-level ecological risk assessment of chemicals have been of increasing interest for risk assessors and managers. In this study, a population-level ecological risk assessment of dioxinlike PCBs on fish-eating birds was performed to judge the need for risk management measures to protect aquatic wildlife from dioxinlike PCBs contamination in Japan. Egg mortality risk and the changes in population growth rate, {lambda}, in relation to the contamination levels of dioxinlike PCBs in eggs of four different types of fish-eating birds were determined by integrating the results from both bioaccumulation and life-history models.

  17. Ethylene oxide: evaluation of genotoxicity data and an exploratory assessment of genetic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natarajan, A T; Preston, R J; Dellarco, V; Ehrenberg, L; Generoso, W; Lewis, S; Tates, A D

    1995-08-01

    A risk estimate of the heritable effects of ethylene oxide exposure, using the parallelogram approach, as suggested by Frits Sobels, is described. The approach is based on available data on the ethylene oxide-induced responses for the same genetic endpoint in somatic cells of both laboratory animals and humans, and for germ cell mutations in the same laboratory animal. Human germ cell effects are estimated. The available data sets for this approach were evaluated. We consider this as complementary to the genetic risk assessment carried out by U.S. EPA scientists, in which the risk from heritable (reciprocal) translocations induced by ethylene oxide was estimated. In the present study we restricted our assessment to dominant mutations. The sensitivity factor relating mouse to man was based on ethylene oxide-induced HPRT mutant frequencies in lymphocytes in vivo. From this comparison, it could be concluded that occupational exposure for 1 year to 1 ppm ethylene oxide would lead to a risk of a dominantly inherited disease in the offspring of 4 x 10(-4) above the background level. The uncertainty interval of this figure is quite large (0.6-28) x 10(-4). The values are compatible with the existing estimates of the corresponding risk from exposure to low LET radiation when the genotoxic potency ratio of ethylene oxide and radiation is considered. This risk estimation approach has allowed us to identify additional data that are required for a more complete risk estimation of the heritable effects of ethylene oxide, or indeed any mutagenic chemical.

  18. Comprehensive evaluation of one-carbon metabolism pathway gene variants and renal cell cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd M Gibson

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Folate and one-carbon metabolism are linked to cancer risk through their integral role in DNA synthesis and methylation. Variation in one-carbon metabolism genes, particularly MTHFR, has been associated with risk of a number of cancers in epidemiologic studies, but little is known regarding renal cancer. METHODS: Tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs selected to produce high genomic coverage of 13 gene regions of one-carbon metabolism (ALDH1L1, BHMT, CBS, FOLR1, MTHFR, MTR, MTRR, SHMT1, SLC19A1, TYMS and the closely associated glutathione synthesis pathway (CTH, GGH, GSS were genotyped for 777 renal cell carcinoma (RCC cases and 1,035 controls in the Central and Eastern European Renal Cancer case-control study. Associations of individual SNPs (n = 163 with RCC risk were calculated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, sex and study center. Minimum p-value permutation (Min-P tests were used to identify gene regions associated with risk, and haplotypes were evaluated within these genes. RESULTS: The strongest associations with RCC risk were observed for SLC19A1 (P(min-P = 0.03 and MTHFR (P(min-P = 0.13. A haplotype consisting of four SNPs in SLC19A1 (rs12483553, rs2838950, rs2838951, and rs17004785 was associated with a 37% increased risk (p = 0.02, and exploratory stratified analysis suggested the association was only significant among those in the lowest tertile of vegetable intake. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively examine variation in one-carbon metabolism genes in relation to RCC risk. We identified a novel association with SLC19A1, which is important for transport of folate into cells. Replication in other populations is required to confirm these findings.

  19. Evaluación de percepción de riesgo ocupacional // Occupational risk perception evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Teresa Carbonell - Siam

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available En el artículo se realiza un análisis de la percepción del riesgo como fenómeno comprometedor deldesarrollo tecnológico, así como generador de errores humanos, principales contribuyentes a laocurrencia de accidentes industriales y laborales. En base a una revisión detallada de varias de lasmetodologías de análisis de percepción de riesgo, el documento presenta el diseño de lametodología de Evaluación de Percepción de Riesgo Ocupacional (EPRO, que puede sergeneralizada para otros objetivos de estudio. Finalmente se ofrecen los resultados de una aplicaciónen una planta de producción de un laboratorio farmacéutico.Palabras claves: riesgo, percepción de riesgo, errores humanos, variables de percepción de riesgo,evaluación de percepción de riesgo.___________________________________________________________________________AbstractThe paper presents the analysis of risk perception as a compromising phenomenon of thetechnological development, and as an important source of human errors, the main contributors to theindustrial and occupational accidents. Based on a detailed review of several risk perceptionmethodologies, it is presented the design of the Occupational Risk Perception Analysis (EPRO inspanish, which can be generalized to others objectives of study. Finally, it is presented the results ofthe application of EPRO to the Production Plant of a pharmaceutical laboratory.Key words: risk, risk perception, human errors, risk perception variables, risk perception evaluation.

  20. Evaluation of skeletal status by quantitative ultrasonometry in postmenopausal women without known risk factors for osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandato, Vincenzo Dario; Sammartino, Annalidia; Di Carlo, Costantino; Tommaselli, Giovanni A; Tauchmanovà, Libuse; D'Elia, Antonio; Nappi, Carmine

    2005-09-01

    The objective of our study was to evaluate bone density in Italian postmenopausal women without clinical risk factors for osteoporosis resident in the Naples area using quantitative ultrasonometry of bone (QUS). Subjects were 1149 Italian postmenopausal women (age: 54.9 +/- 5.0 years (mean +/- standard deviation); range: 45-74 years) resident in the Naples area. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis resulting in exclusion from the study were family history of osteoporosis, dietary, smoking and alcohol habits, personal history of fractures and/or metabolic diseases. The following QUS parameters were calculated: amplitude-dependent speed of sound (AD-SoS), T-score and Z-score. We found significant inverse correlations between AD-SoS and age (r = - 0.23), time since menopause (r = - 0.25) and body mass index (BMI) (r = - 0.16). The same was observed for T-score. In contrast, Z-score showed a significant positive correlation with age and time since menopause, and a negative correlation with BMI. A T-score suggestive of high risk for osteoporosis (less than -3.2) was found in 1.6% of subjects, while a T-score suggestive of moderate risk for osteoporosis (between -3.2 and -2) was found in 19.3% of patients. In this group of women without clinical risk factors for osteoporosis we found a very low prevalence of QUS results suggesting a high risk for osteoporosis. However, a condition of 'moderate' risk for osteoporosis was present in a remarkable percentage of these women.

  1. EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia MÂRŢU; Sorina SOLOMON; Oana POTÂRNICHIE; Liliana PĂSĂRIN; Alexandra MÂRŢU; O. NICOLAICIUC; Irina URSARESCU

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict c...

  2. Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation and Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Design Using Value at Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhongqiuZhao

    2004-01-01

    Traditional evaluation techniques for mutual funds are based on CAPM or APT. Propose a new measure benefiting from Value at Risk is proposed in this paper.We show how to apply the VAR dynamics to the evaluation of mutual funds. Meanwhile,we applied the idea to the design of dynamic portfolio construction strategies. As for the portfolio weight adjusting, this paper is focused on the optimal adjusting strategies with cost happens and those on concrete time points.

  3. Supply Chain Collaboration Risk Evaluation Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers Similarity

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Wen; Wei Zhao; Rui Wang

    2013-01-01

    Supply chains are confronted with more complicated risks on the current financial crisis, as makes risk control in supply chain management more exigent. Supply chain collaboration, as the important part of supply chain management, is the key method of improving supply chains profits. This study introduces risk management into the mechanism of supply chain collaboration. In supply chain risk management, supply chain collaboration risk is recognized as an important section which can help SCM mo...

  4. Crack Risk Evaluation of Early Age Concrete Based on the Distributed Optical Fiber Temperature Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nannan Shi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cracks often appear in concrete arch dams, due to the thermal stress and low tensile strength of early age concrete. There are three commonly used temperature controlling measures: controlling the casting temperature, burying cooling pipe, and protecting the surface. However, because of the difficulty to obtain accurate temperature and thermal stress field of the concrete, the rationality and economy of these measures are not assessed validly before and after construction. In this paper, a crack risk evaluation system for early age concrete is established, including distributed optical fiber temperature sensing (DTS, prediction of temperature and stress fields, and crack risk evaluation. Based on the DTS temperature data, the back-analysis method is applied to retrieve the thermal parameters of concrete. Then, the temperature and thermal stress of early age concrete are predicted using the reversed thermal parameters, as well as the laboratory test parameters. Finally, under the proposed cracking risk evaluation principle, the cracking risk level of each concrete block is given; the preliminary and later temperature controlling measures were recommended, respectively. The application of the proposed system in Xiluodu super high arch dam shows that this system works effectively for preventing cracks of early age concrete.

  5. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve.

  6. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Scott M; Suski, Jamie G; Salice, Christopher J

    2010-12-01

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation.

  7. Screening and risk evaluation for sudden cardiac death in ischaemic and non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proclemer, Alessandro; Lewalter, Thorsten; Bongiorni, Maria Grazia;

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this EHRA survey was to examine the current clinical practice of screening and risk evaluation for sudden cardiac death in ischaemic and non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy with a focus on selection of candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, timing of ICD...... centres (32.2%), and in patients with permanent dialysis in 8 centres (33.3%). Signal-averaged electrocardiography and heart rate variability were never considered as risk stratification tools in 23 centres (74.2%). Implantation of a loop recorder was performed in patients with borderline indications...... on the clinical risk stratification and not on non-invasive and invasive diagnostic tests or implantable loop recorder use....

  8. Distribution and risk evaluation of heavy metal in the soil of typical grassed swale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Binghui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The concentration and distribution of Pb, Zn, Cu and Cr in the surface soil of three grassed swales located in the city of Beijing, Jiaxing and Shenzhen were studied in this paper. Evaluations on the risk of heavy metals were conducted based on the second level limit of soil environmental quality standard, using different indexes (i.e., single item, comprehensive items and potential ecological risk indexes. Results show that the concentration of Pb, Zn, Cu and Cr in all the soil samples is within the limit of second level of soil environmental quality standard of China, except the soil samples of the grassed swale from Shenzhen city. The result also shows that the concentration of the four kinds of heavy metals in the surface soil of grassed swales is linearly correlated with the depth of soil sampling points. In summary, ecological risk of heavy metals in the three grassed swales is slight.

  9. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  10. Atomic force microscopy as a tool to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases in patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guedes, Ana Filipa; Carvalho, Filomena A.; Malho, Inês; Lousada, Nuno; Sargento, Luís; Santos, Nuno C.

    2016-08-01

    The availability of biomarkers to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular diseases is limited. High fibrinogen levels have been identified as a relevant cardiovascular risk factor, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Increased aggregation of erythrocytes (red blood cells) has been linked to high plasma fibrinogen concentration. Here, we show, using atomic force microscopy, that the interaction between fibrinogen and erythrocytes is modified in chronic heart failure patients. Ischaemic patients showed increased fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces compared with non-ischaemic patients. Cell stiffness in both patient groups was also altered. A 12-month follow-up shows that patients with higher fibrinogen-erythrocyte binding forces initially were subsequently hospitalized more frequently. Our results show that atomic force microscopy can be a promising tool to identify patients with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases.

  11. Project Risk Management Phases

    OpenAIRE

    Claudiu-George BOCEAN

    2008-01-01

    Risk management is the human activity which integrates recognition of risk, risk assessment, developing strategies to manage it, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources. Notwithstanding the domain of activities where they are conducted, projects often entail risks, and risk management has been widely recognized as a success factor in project management. Following a concept clarification on project risk management, this paper presents a generic list steps in the risk management proce...

  12. Risk assessment of the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    at risk; g) management options to reduce likelihood of introduction and spread consist of certifying Castanea planting material from pest free areas/places of production; h) classical biological control and plant varietal resistance are identified as management options to reduce the magnitude of impact.......The Panel on Plant Health was requested by the European Commission to deliver a scientific opinion on the risk posed by the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus to the EU territory and to identify and evaluate risk management options. Additional analyses were conducted by the Panel...... to a) determine the distribution of the endangered area within the EU territory; b) investigate the pattern and rate of pest diffusion and c) consider the environmental risk of introduction of the biological control agent Torymus sinensis identified as a potential management option. The Panel concluded...

  13. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  14. Evaluation of the Use of QSARS for Priority Setting and Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feijtel, T C

    1995-09-01

    Abstract Impending changes in EEC legislation have accelerated the need to define the principles and practical considerations of the use of QSARs in priority setting and risk assessment. It is important to delineate the limitations of this approach and to review whether and how this information should be used in the risk assessment. The value and limitations of QSARs for use in priority setting and risk assessment will not be discussed in detail since the European Chemical Industry Ecology and Toxicology Centre (ECETOC) has only recently established a Task Force to tackle this issue. The terms of reference of the Task Force are: (1) compare the predictions obtained with QSARs to measured data using ECETOC databases and other sources of data and comment on the validity and applicability of such QSARs; (2) identify and review software packages which are available for accessing and using appropriate QSARs; (3) identify those aspects of environmental distribution, fate and effects where the further development of QSARs is desirable and feasible; and (4) provide a scientific basis for ECETOC's contribution to the activities of the European Chemicals Bureau (ECB) in this area. In this short paper, only an initial and personal evaluation is made of when and where to use QSARs in the priority setting and risk assessment process within the regulatory framework. Some critical remarks and suggestions are provided to guide future developments and integration of QSARs in the risk assessment process.

  15. Evaluating variability and uncertainty separately in microbial quantitative risk assessment using two R packages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

    2010-09-01

    Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org).

  16. Field sampling of soil pore water to evaluate trace element mobility and associated environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno-Jimenez, Eduardo, E-mail: eduardo.moreno@uam.es [Departamento de Quimica Agricola, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Beesley, Luke [James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH (United Kingdom); Lepp, Nicholas W. [35, Victoria Road, Formby, Liverpool L37 7DH (United Kingdom); Dickinson, Nicholas M. [Department of Ecology, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, PO Box 84 (New Zealand); Hartley, William [School of Computing, Science and Engineering, University of Salford, Cockcroft Building, Salford, M5 4WT (United Kingdom); Clemente, Rafael [Dep. of Soil and Water Conservation and Organic Waste Management, CEBAS-CSIC, Campus Universitario de Espinardo, PO Box 164, 30100 Espinardo, Murcia (Spain)

    2011-10-15

    Monitoring soil pollution is a key aspect in sustainable management of contaminated land but there is often debate over what should be monitored to assess ecological risk. Soil pore water, containing the most labile pollutant fraction in soils, can be easily collected in situ offering a routine way to monitor this risk. We present a compilation of data on concentration of trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) in soil pore water collected in field conditions from a range of polluted and non-polluted soils in Spain and the UK during single and repeated monitoring, and propose a simple eco-toxicity test using this media. Sufficient pore water could be extracted for analysis both under semi-arid and temperate conditions, and eco-toxicity comparisons could be effectively made between polluted and non-polluted soils. We propose that in-situ pore water extraction could enhance the realism of risk assessment at some contaminated sites. - Highlights: > In situ pore water sampling successfully evaluates trace elements mobility in soils. > Field sampling proved robust for different soils, sites and climatic regimes. > Measurements may be directly related to ecotoxicological assays. > Both short and long-term monitoring of polluted lands may be achieved. > This method complements other widely used assays for environmental risk assessment. - In situ pore water sampling from a wide variety of soils proves to be a beneficial application to monitor the stability of pollutants in soils and subsequent risk through mobility.

  17. Evaluating the Mental Models Approach to Developing a Risk Communication: A Scoping Review of the Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boase, Nick; White, Mathew; Gaze, William; Redshaw, Clare

    2017-03-17

    Risk communication is fundamental in ensuring people are equipped with the knowledge needed to navigate varied risks. One generally well-regarded framework for the development of such communications is the mental models approach to risk communication (MMARC). Developed during the 1990s, the MMARC has been applied to a range of health, technological, and environmental risks. However, as yet, we know of no attempt to collate and review articles that evaluated communications developed using the MMARC. This article took a first step at addressing this gap by conducting a scoping review that aimed to begin to explore the fidelity with which the approach has been applied, explore whether there appeared to be sufficient studies to warrant a future systematic review, and identify future research questions. Although the initial search found over 100 articles explicitly applying the MMARC, only 12 of these developed a risk-related communication that was tested against a control (and thus included in the current review). All studies reported a positive effect of the MMARC versus control communication for at least some of the outcome measures (knowledge being the most prevalent). However, there was wide variation between studies including type of control, outcomes assessed, and only five studies reported adopting a randomized design. The review highlights both the need for greater fidelity in the way future studies operationalize the MMARC approach, and suggests that a full-scale systematic review of the MMARC literature appears justified, especially given the possibility of a large gray literature in this area.

  18. Childhood Obesity Risk Evaluation based on perinatal factors and family sociodemographic characteristics: CORE index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manios, Yannis; Birbilis, Manolis; Moschonis, George; Birbilis, George; Mougios, Vassilis; Lionis, Christos; Chrousos, George P

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to develop an index that estimates late childhood obesity risk based on certain perinatal and family sociodemographic characteristics. The study was cross-sectional with retrospectively collected data from a representative sample of 2,294 primary schoolchildren, aged 9-13 years, in four counties from north, west, central, and south Greece. Mother's prepregnancy weight status, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal educational level, and infant weight gain in the first 6 months of life were combined with children's gender for the development of the Childhood Obesity Risk Evaluation (CORE) index. The score of the CORE index ranged from 0 to 11 units and each unit was associated with an obesity risk probability (range, 4-40 %). Cutoff point analysis revealed that a score ≤ 5 units best discriminated obese from non-obese children. On the basis of this cutoff point, the sensitivity of the CORE index was 54 % and the corresponding specificity 65 %. The proposed CORE index and the relevant percent risk probability chart could be used by pediatricians and other health professionals to identify children at high risk for obesity from early life. This simple and inexpensive tool could be useful in assisting early childhood obesity preventing initiatives.

  19. Evaluation of the environmental impact of apple pest control strategies using pesticide risk indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph

    2011-10-01

    Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  20. Decisions under risk in Parkinson's disease: preserved evaluation of probability and magnitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; McKeown, Martin J; Appel-Cresswell, Silke; Stoessl, A Jon; Barton, Jason J S

    2013-11-01

    Unmedicated Parkinson's disease patients tend to be risk-averse while dopaminergic treatment causes a tendency to take risks. While dopamine agonists may result in clinically apparent impulse control disorders, treatment with levodopa also causes shift in behaviour associated with an enhanced response to rewards. Two important determinants in decision-making are how subjects perceive the magnitude and probability of outcomes. Our objective was to determine if patients with Parkinson's disease on or off levodopa showed differences in their perception of value when making decisions under risk. The Vancouver Gambling task presents subjects with a choice between one prospect with larger outcome and a second with higher probability. Eighteen age-matched controls and eighteen patients with Parkinson's disease before and after levodopa were tested. In the Gain Phase subjects chose between one prospect with higher probability and another with larger reward to maximize their gains. In the Loss Phase, subjects played to minimize their losses. Patients with Parkinson's disease, on or off levodopa, were similar to controls when evaluating gains. However, in the Loss Phase before levodopa, they were more likely to avoid the prospect with lower probability but larger loss, as indicated by the steeper slope of their group psychometric function (t(24) = 2.21, p = 0.04). Modelling with prospect theory suggested that this was attributable to a 28% overestimation of the magnitude of loss, rather than an altered perception of its probability. While pre-medicated patients with Parkinson's disease show risk-aversion for large losses, patients on levodopa have normal perception of magnitude and probability for both loss and gain. The finding of accurate and normally biased decisions under risk in medicated patients with PD is important because it indicates that, if there is indeed anomalous risk-seeking behaviour in such a cohort, it may derive from abnormalities in components of

  1. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  2. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing in the evaluation of high risk patients with lung cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MAO You-sheng; WANG Yong-gang; HUANG Jin-feng; HE Jie; YAN Shao-ping; Dong Jing-si; CHENG Gui-yu; SUN Ke-lin; LIU Xiang-yang; FANG De-kang; LI Jian

    2010-01-01

    Background It is still unclear whether pulmonary function tests (PFTs) are sufficient for predicting perioperative risk,and whether all patients or only a subset of them need a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) for further assessment.Thus, this study was designed to evaluate the CPET and compare the results of CPET and conventional PFTs to identify which parameters are more reliable and valuable in predicting perioperative risks for high risk patients with lung cancer.Methods From January 2005 to August 2008, 297 consecutive lung cancer patients underwent conventional PFTs (spirometry + single-breath carbon monoxide diffusing capacity of the lungs (DLCOsb) for diffusion capacity) and CPET preoperatively. The correlation of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications with the parameters of PFT and CPET was retrospectively analyzed using the chi-square test, independent sample t test and binary Logistic regression analysis.Results Of the 297 patients, 78 did not receive operation due to advanced disease stage or poor cardiopulmonary function. The remaining 219 underwent different modes of operations. Twenty-one cases were excluded from this study due to exploration alone (15 cases) and operation-related complications (6 cases). Thus, 198 cases were eligible for evaluation. Fifty of the 198 patients (25.2%) had postoperative cardiopulmonary complications. Three patients (1.5%)died of complications within 30 postoperative days. The patients were stratified into groups based on VO2max/pred respectively. The rate of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications was significantly higher in the group with cardiopulmonary complications were significantly correlated with age, comorbidities, and poor PFT and CPET results.used to stratify the patients' cardiopulmonary function status and to predict the risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary predicting perioperative risk. If available, cardiopulmonary exercise testing is strongly suggested for high-risk lung cancer patients in

  3. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in stages of gout by a complex multimodal ultrasonography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gancheva, Rada; Kundurdjiev, Atanas; Ivanova, Mariana; Kundurzhiev, Todor; Kolarov, Zlatimir

    2017-01-01

    The aim of our work was to assess ultrasound features of cardiovascular (CV) risk in stages of gout. Cross-sectional complex multimodal ultrasound study of 169 age-matched patients, with similar distribution of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity and chronic renal failure, was divided into four groups: 41 with asymptomatic hyperuricemia, 52 gout without tophi, 42 gouty tophi and 34 controls with osteoarthritis. Parameters independently associated with CV risk were measured: renal resistive index (RRI), left ventricular mass index (LVMi), mitral annulus early diastolic velocity (e'), intima-media thickness (IMT) and common carotid artery resistive index (CCARI). Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of gout stages and CV risk factors on ultrasound alterations. Gouty tophi increased the risk of having IMT >0.90 mm with an OR 11.51 (95 % CI 2.32-57.21, p = 0.003), gout without tophi raised the risk with an OR 6.25 (95 % CI 1.37-28.44, p = 0.018), while asymptomatic hyperuricemia had no effect on IMT. The category of CCARI >0.70 was influenced by tophi with an OR 11.18 (95 % CI 2.61-47.83, p = 0.001) and by arterial hypertension with an OR 3.22 (95 % CI 1.11-9.36, p = 0.032). Neither asymptomatic hyperuricemia nor gout without tophi modified the development of abnormally high CCARI. Gout stages had no impact on LVMi, e' and RRI. Tophi are related to worsened ultrasonographic parameters evaluating target organs in gout, relative to earlier stages of the disease. They create a strong risk of carotid arteries' changes even beyond arterial hypertension.

  4. Managing risk and uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Coulson-Thomas, Colin

    2015-01-01

    Examines risk management and contemporary issues concerning risk governance from a board perspective, including risk tolerance, innovation, insurance, balancing risks and other factors, risk and strategies of diversification or focus, increasing flexibility to cope with uncertainty, periodic planning versus intelligent steering, and limiting downside risks and adverse consequences.

  5. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  6. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  7. Research on risk evaluation of mine gas outburst fatalness in Xiangshui Mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUI Xiang-you; YU Zhong-ming

    2008-01-01

    The danger degree evaluation of coal and gas outburst is mainly evaluating spot risk using the safety examination table and the evaluation value can be found. According to factors influence coal and gas outburst majorth were qualitative or fuzzy similar factors, used fuzzy gathering classification method for the coal and the gas outburst analysis, established fuzzy model, according to the model adopted the fuzzy similar selective principle proceeding evaluated. Two kinds methods join together analysis can raise on the accuracy rate of the prediction.

  8. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  9. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Omar D. Cardona

    2005-01-01

    This document is the summary report of the IDB-sponsored system of disaster risk and risk management indicators presented at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, 2005. The indices estimate disaster risk loss, distribution, vulnerability and management for 12 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The objective of this program is to facilitate access to relevant information on disaster risk and risk management by national decision-makers, thus making possible the i...

  10. Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

    2017-01-12

    This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other.

  11. A fuzzy pert approach to evaluate plant construction project scheduling risk under uncertain resources capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsian Jong Hsiau

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available A plant construction project always involves lots of activities. Precise information about the activities duration is unfortunately unavailable due to the uncertain resources capacity. The fuzzy program evaluation and review technique (PERT has been widely applied to solve the fuzzy project scheduling problem. This paper presents an extended fuzzy PERT approach with four major improvement aspects to support the construction project scheduling management: 1 Evaluate operation fuzzy times based on available working volumes, resources quantity and fuzzy capacity of resources, 2 Adopting a maximal alpha_i-level cut method to compare the fuzzy precedent activities times to determine the reasonable earliest starting times of each activity, 3 Using fuzzy algebra method instead of fuzzy subtraction method to compute the fuzzy latest starting times and 4 Developing a project scheduling risk index (PSRI to assist the decision maker to evaluate the project scheduling risk. Simulations experiments are conducted and demonstrated satisfactory results.

  12. Evaluation of the Families SHARE workbook: an educational tool outlining disease risk and healthy guidelines to reduce risk of heart disease, diabetes, breast cancer and colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehly, Laura M; Morris, Bronwyn A; Skapinsky, Kaley; Goergen, Andrea; Ludden, Amanda

    2015-11-13

    Common diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer are etiologically complex with multiple risk factors (e.g., environment, genetic, lifestyle). These risk factors tend to cluster in families, making families an important social context for intervention and lifestyle-focused disease prevention. The Families Sharing Health Assessment and Risk Evaluation (SHARE) workbook was designed as an educational tool outlining family health history based risk of heart disease, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The current paper describes the steps taken to develop and evaluate the workbook employing a user-centered design approach. The workbook was developed in four steps, culminating in an evaluation focusing on understanding and usability of the tool. The evaluation was based on two Phases of data collected from a sample of mothers of young children in the Washington, D.C., area. A baseline assessment and follow-up approximately two weeks after receipt of the workbook were conducted, as well as focus groups with participants. The design of the workbook was refined in response to participant feedback from the first evaluation Phase and subsequently re-evaluated with a new sample. After incorporating user-based feedback and revising the workbook, Phase 2 evaluation results indicated that understanding of the workbook components improved for all sections (from 6.26 to 6.81 on a 7-point scale). In addition, 100% of users were able to use the algorithm to assess their disease risk and over 60% used the algorithm to assess family members' disease risk. At follow-up, confidence to increase fruit, vegetable and fiber intake improved significantly, as well. The Families SHARE workbook was developed and evaluated resulting in a family health history tool that is both understandable and usable by key stakeholders. This educational tool will be used in intervention studies assessing the effectiveness of family genomics health educators who use the Families

  13. Evaluation of the Johne's disease risk assessment and management plan on dairy farms in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieper, Laura; Sorge, Ulrike S; DeVries, Trevor J; Godkin, Ann; Lissemore, Kerry; Kelton, David F

    2015-10-01

    Johne's disease (JD) is a production-limiting gastrointestinal disease in cattle. To minimize the effects of JD, the Ontario dairy industry launched the Ontario Johne's Education and Management Assistance Program in 2010. As part of the program, trained veterinarians conducted a risk assessment and management plan (RAMP), an on-farm questionnaire where high RAMP scores are associated with high risk of JD transmission. Subsequently, veterinarians recommended farm-specific management practices for JD prevention. Milk or serum ELISA results from the milking herd were used to determine the herd ELISA status (HES) and within-herd prevalence. After 3.5 yr of implementation of the program, the aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among RAMP scores, HES, and recommendations. Data from 2,103 herds were available for the analyses. A zero-inflated negative binomial model for the prediction of the number of ELISA-positive animals per farm was built. The model included individual RAMP questions about purchasing animals in the logistic portion, indicating risks for between-herd transmission, and purchasing bulls, birth of calves outside the designated calving area, colostrum and milk feeding management, and adult cow environmental hygiene in the negative binomial portion, indicating risk factors for within-herd transmission. However, farms which fed low-risk milk compared with milk replacer had fewer seropositive animals. The model additionally included the JD herd history in the negative binomial and the logistic portion, indicating that herds with a JD herd history were more likely to have at least 1 positive animal and to have a higher number of positive animals. Generally, a positive association was noted between RAMP scores and the odds of receiving a recommendation for the respective risk area; however, the relationship was not always linear. For general JD risk and calving area risk, seropositive herds had higher odds of receiving recommendations compared

  14. Evaluating the impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus on cardiovascular risk in persons with metabolic syndrome using the UKPDS risk engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ogedengbe OS

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available O Stephen Ogedengbe,1 Ignatius U Ezeani,2 Ijezie I Chukwuonye,3 Ndukaife Anyabolu,4,5 Ikemefuna I Ozor,6 Aihanuwa Eregie1 1Department of Internal Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, 2Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Medical Center, Umuahia, 3Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Medical Center, Umuahia, 4Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Imo State University Teaching Hospital, Orlu, 5Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Medical Centre, Owerri, 6Division of Neurosurgery, Department of Surgery, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu, NigeriaBackground: The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of coexistence of metabolic syndrome (MS and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM on the estimated cardiovascular risk as calculated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetic Study risk engine (UKPDS-RE and also to determine the impact of the coexistence of MS and T2DM on the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke.Methodology: This is a cross-sectional study in which convenience sampling technique was used to recruit 124 consecutive persons with T2DM and 96 controls using a questionnaire administered technique. The World Health Organization (WHO criterion was used to define MS and the UKPDS-RE was used to identify persons with increased risk for stroke and those with increased risk for coronary heart disease. The data obtained were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Statistical comparisons were made with chi-square for comparison of proportions. A P-value of less than 0.05 was taken as statistically significant.Results: Fifteen subjects were identified as having an increased 10-year risk for stroke and ten as having an increased risk for a coronary event. The odds of a T2DM subject with MS having an increased risk for stroke compared with a T2DM subject without MS

  15. Effects and Risk Evaluation of Oil Spillage in the Sea Areas of Changxing Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanxi Wang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluated the oil spillage risk in the waters near the island of Changxing in Dalian (China based on the established risk assessment index. Four wind regimes (windless, northerly wind, westerly wind and southerly wind were selected as weather conditions for the dynamic prediction of oil drift. If an oil spill occurs near the Koumen (a place near the island of Changxing, the forecast and evaluation are conducted based on a three-dimensional mathematical model of oil spillage, and the results obtained show the scope of the affected area when winds from various directions are applied. The oil spillage would, under various conditions, flow into the northern and western sea area of Changxing Island Bay, namely the Dalian harbor seal National Nature Reserve, and create adverse effects on the marine ecological environment. The rationality of combining the established oil spillage risk comprehensive index system with model prediction is further confirmed. Finally, preventive measures and quick fixes are presented in the case of accidental oil spillages. The most effective method to reduce environment risk is to adopt reasonable preventive measures and quick fixes.

  16. Risk Evaluation Approach and Application Research on Fuzzy-FMECA Method Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengjie Xu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to safeguard the safety of passengers and reducemaintenance costs, it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the security risk ofthe Railway Signal System. However, the conventional Fuzzy Analytical HierarchyProcess (FAHP can not describe the fuzziness and randomness of the judgment,accurately, and once the fuzzy sets are described using subjection degreefunction, the concept of fuzziness will be no longer fuzzy. Thus Fuzzy-FMECAmethod based on cloud model is put forward. Failure Modes Effects andCriticality Analysis (FMECA method is used to identify the risk and FAHP basedon cloud model is used for determining the subjection degree function in fuzzymethod, finally the group decision can be gained with the syntheticallyaggregated cloud model, the method’s feasibility and effectiveness are shown inthe practical examples. Finally Fuzzy-FMECA based on cloud model and theconventional FAHP are used to assess the risk respectively, evaluation resultsshow that the cloud model which is introduced into the risk assessment ofRailway Signal System can realize the transition between precise value andquality value by combining the fuzziness and randomness and provide moreabundant information than subjection degree function of the conventional FAHP.

  17. Relative potency as a means of evaluating ELF (Extremely Low Frequency) health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Easterly, C.E.; Glass, L.R.

    1990-09-01

    In the 1970's, a variety of developments took place to heightened public and scientific interest in electromagnetic fields. During this time, biological studies of nonionizing electromagnetic fields were taking place, but no clear evidence of risks to public health was identified. Then came the surprising epidemiological finding suggesting that 60 Hz magnetic fields may be related to some childhood leukemias. Our particular interest at ORNL was how to interpret the available data with respect to human exposures to the nearly ubiquitous fields. A review of the available data showed that consistent biological effects were difficult to identify. Classical toxicological tests used in chemical risk assessment had not been performed with Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) fields but rather a wide range of mechanistic studies had been pursued. To evaluate the level of anticipated hazard or risk there was neither a mechanistic understanding nor a consistent phenomenological outcome. A risk evaluation normally requires one or the other of these two types of information. Two quite different approaches were pursued: meta-analysis and relative potency. The first of these is a method to combine data from similar experiments to enhance the relative statistical power of a collection of small sample size studies, and will not be discussed further. The second, relative potency, will be the focus of this paper. 20 refs., 2 figs.

  18. Evaluation of Psoriasis Genetic Risk Based on Five Susceptibility Markers in a Population from Northern Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stawczyk-Macieja, Marta; Rębała, Krzysztof; Szczerkowska-Dobosz, Aneta; Wysocka, Joanna; Cybulska, Lidia; Kapińska, Ewa; Haraś, Agnieszka; Miniszewska, Paulina; Nowicki, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Psoriasis genetic background depends on polygenic and multifactorial mode of inheritance. As in other complex disorders, the estimation of the disease risk based on individual genetic variants is impossible. For this reason, recent investigations have been focused on combinations of known psoriasis susceptibility markers in order to improve the disease risk evaluation. Our aim was to compare psoriasis genetic risk score (GRS) for five susceptibility loci involved in the immunological response (HLA-C, ERAP1, ZAP70) and in the skin barrier function (LCE3, CSTA) between patients with chronic plaque psoriasis (n = 148) and the control group (n = 146). A significantly higher number of predisposing alleles was observed in patients with psoriasis in comparison to healthy individuals (6.1 vs. 5.2, respectively; P = 8.8×10−7). The statistical significance was even more profound when GRS weighted by logarithm odds ratios was evaluated (P = 9.9×10−14). Our results demonstrate the developed panel of five susceptibility loci to be more efficient in predicting psoriasis risk in the Polish population and to possess higher sensitivity and specificity for the disease than any of the markers analyzed separately, including the most informative HLA-C*06 allele. PMID:27658291

  19. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  20. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

  1. Evaluating Sources of Risks in Large Engineering Projects: The Roles of Equivocality and Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leena Pekkinen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary project risk management literature introduces uncertainty, i.e., the lack of information, as a fundamental basis of project risks. In this study the authors assert that equivocality, i.e., the existence of multiple and conflicting interpretations, can also serve as a basis of risks. With an in-depth empirical investigation of a large complex engineering project the authors identified risk sources having their bases in the situations where uncertainty or equivocality was the predominant attribute. The information processing theory proposes different managerial practices for risk management based on the sources of risks in uncertainty or equivocality.

  2. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the settled dust of automobile workshops, health and carcinogenic risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Nadeem; Ismail, Iqbal Mohammad Ibrahim; Khoder, Mamdouh; Shamy, Magdy; Alghamdi, Mansour; Al Khalaf, Abdulrahman; Costa, Max

    2017-12-01

    There are studies available on the occurrence of PAHs in indoor settled dust from residential and different occupational settings in literature but limited data is available on their occurrence and potential health risk assessment in automobile workshops. In recent decades Saudi Arabia has experienced tremendous growth in the petroleum industry and as a result, the automobile industry is booming. People working in automobile workshops are at a greater risk of exposure to chemicals releasing from the petroleum products. The main objective of this study was to report PAHs in settled dust from different automobile workshops of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and evaluate health risk for workers through dust exposure. Pyrene (1585-13500ng/g), Benz[a]anthracene (risk assessment was calculated based on benzo[a]pyrene equivalent carcinogenic power (BaPE), incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), and daily exposure to PAHs via dust ingestion. The median concentration of BaPE was 285ng/g, ILCR was up to 6.78×10(-3) (exceeded reference values of USEPA (range between 1×10(-6) and 1×10(-4))), and worker's exposure via dust ingestion on daily bases reached up to 33ng/kgbw/day for ∑12PAHs. This study showed people working in automobile workshops in the studied area are getting expose to high levels of PAHs via dust ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. This is the first study reporting PAHs in automobile workshops settings from Middle East. The incremental lifetime cancer risk to workers via dust exposure exceeded set limits of USEPA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of a risk factor scoring model in screening for undiagnosed diabetes in China population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian-jun DONG; Neng-jun LOU; Jia-jun ZHAO; Zhong-wen ZHANG; Lu-lu QIU; Ying ZHOU; Lin LIAO

    2011-01-01

    Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city.Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTr) were completed by all subjects.Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A,variables were selected to establish the risk scoring model.The validity and effectiveness of this model were evaluated in Group B.Results:Based on stepwise logistic regression analysis performed with data of Group A,variables including age,body mass index (BMI),waist-to-hip ratio (WHR),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,heart rate,family history of diabetes,and history of high glucose were accepted into the risk scoring model.The risk for having diabetes increased along with aggregate scores.When Youden index was closest to 1,the optimal cutoff value was set up at 51.At this point,the diabetes risk scoring model could identify diabetes patients with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 66.5%,making the positive predictive value 12.83%and negative predictive value 98.53%.We compared our model with the Finnish and Danish model and concluded that our model has superior validity in Chinese population.Conclusions:Our diabetes risk scoring model has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes in our population,which might be a simple and practical tool suitable for massive diabetes screening.

  4. Caries risk and prevention: Evaluation of a preventive program in a clinic for children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Correia Sampaio

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to verify the use of the Nexø caries risk assessment system together with the Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden, in a preventive program for children at the cariology clinic at Federal University of Paraíba. Methods: A sample of 107 children (2- to 14-year-old was attended on two occasions. The patients’ clinical data (DMF-T, dmf-t, Bleeding index, OHI-S and those from the preventive procedures performed (professional cleaning, fluoride application, Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden, Nexø caries risk were collected twice: first from the clinical record cards and on the second occasion by exams. Parents and guardians evaluated the clinical attendance in an interview and the children, by means of a VAS scale. According to the Nexø caries risk assessment system, 53 children (49.5% were classified at low risk (6. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS (11.0. Results: A positive correlation was observed between the two risk systems: Nexø and Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden of chances of avoiding new caries lesions. The possibility of avoiding new caries lesions increased 5% in both groups and a discrete increase was observed in the other parameters. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the Nexø system associated with the Cariogram® (School of Dentistry, Malmö, Sweden, contributed to the assessment of the patients’ caries risk profile and to the success of the preventive program for children at the cariology clinic at Universidade Federal da Paraíba.

  5. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  6. Evaluation of Species Distribution Model Algorithms For Fine-Scale Container Breeding Mosquito Risk Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatchikian, C.; Sangermano, F.; Kendell, D.; Livdahl, T.

    2010-01-01

    The present work evaluates the use of species distribution model (SDM) algorithms to classify high density of small container Aedes mosquitoes at a fine scale, in the Bermuda islands. Weekly ovitrap data collected by the Health Department of Bermuda (UK) for the years 2006 and 2007 were used for the models. The models evaluated included the following algorithms: Bioclim, Domain, GARP, logistic regression, and MaxEnt. Models were evaluated according to performance and robustness. The area Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate each model’s performance, and robustness was assessed considering the spatial correlation between classification risks for the two datasets. Relative to the other algorithms, logistic regression was the best model for classifying high risk areas, and the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) presented the second best performance. We report the importance of covariables for these two models, and discuss the utility of SDMs for vector control efforts and the potential for the development of scripts that automate the task of creating risk assessment maps. PMID:21198711

  7. Screening Models for Cardiac Risk Evaluation in Emergency Abdominal Surgery. I. Evaluation of the Intraoperative Period Risk based on Data from the Preoperative Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Matveev

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A classification of intraoperative cardio-vascular complications (CVC was performed, based on data from 466 patients subjected to emergency surgery, due to severe abdominal surgical diseases or traumas, in accordance with the severe criteria of ACC/AHA for CVC in noncardiac surgery. There were 370 intraoperative CVC registered, distributed as follows: groups with low risk (148, moderate risk (200, and high risk (22. Patient groups were formed, according to the CVC risk level, during the intraoperative period, for which the determinant factor for the group distribution of patients was the complication with the highest risk. Individual data was collected for each patient, based on 65 indices: age, physical status, diseases, surgical interventions, anaesthesiological information, intra and postoperative cardio-vascular complications, disease outcome, causes of death, cardiovascular disease anamnesis, anamnesis of all other nonsurgical diseases present, laboratory results, results from all imaging and instrumental examinations, etc. On the basis of these indices, a new distribution of the risk factors was implemented, into groups with different levels of risk of CVC during intraoperative period. This result is a solid argument, substantiating the proposal to introduce these adjustments for determining the severity of CVC in the specific conditions of emergency abdominal surgery.

  8. Evaluation of exposure-specific risks from two independent samples: A simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gagnon David

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have proposed a simple product-based estimator for calculating exposure-specific risks (ESR, but the methodology has not been rigorously evaluated. The goal of our study was to evaluate the existing methodology for calculating the ESR, propose an improved point estimator, and propose variance estimates that will allow the calculation of confidence intervals (CIs. Methods We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of two estimators and their associated confidence intervals: 1 current (simple product-based estimator and 2 proposed revision (revised product-based estimator. The first method for ESR estimation was based on multiplying a relative risk (RR of disease given a certain exposure by an overall risk of disease. The second method, which is proposed in this paper, was based on estimates of the risk of disease in the unexposed. We then multiply the updated risk by the RR to get the revised product-based estimator. A log-based variance was calculated for both estimators. Also, a binomial-based variance was calculated for the revised product-based estimator. 95% CIs were calculated based on these variance estimates. Accuracy of point estimators was evaluated by comparing observed relative bias (percent deviation from the true estimate. Interval estimators were evaluated by coverage probabilities and expected length of the 95% CI, given coverage. We evaluated these estimators across a wide range of exposure probabilities, disease probabilities, relative risks, and sample sizes. Results We observed more bias and lower coverage probability when using the existing methodology. The revised product-based point estimator exhibited little observed relative bias (max: 4.0% compared to the simple product-based estimator (max: 93.9%. Because the simple product-based estimator was biased, 95% CIs around this estimate exhibited small coverage probabilities. The 95% CI around the revised product

  9. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  10. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  11. Research on the Model of Household Credit Risk Evaluation of Rural Microfinance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Since rural microfinance is a credit which grants loans without collateral and guarantees to farmers,it is considerably important to evaluate and control the household credit risk.Through establishing the evaluation index system and then using catastrophe progression theory,three common types of catastrophe system and the normalization formula,we get the comprehensive evaluation.Finally,we take the empirical test and the result shows that this method is simpler and more objective which can be used by the credit cooperatives to decide whether to authorize the loans.

  12. Visual avoidance in phobia: particularities in neural activity, autonomic responding, and cognitive risk evaluations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana eAue

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the neural mechanisms and the autonomic and cognitive responses associated with visual avoidance behavior in spider phobia. Spider phobic and control participants imagined visiting different forest locations with the possibility of encountering spiders, snakes, or birds (neutral reference category. In each experimental trial, participants saw a picture of a forest location followed by a picture of a spider, snake, or bird, and then rated their personal risk of encountering these animals in this context, as well as their fear. The greater the visual avoidance of spiders that a phobic participant demonstrated (as measured by eye tracking, the higher were her autonomic arousal and neural activity in the amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, and precuneus at picture onset. Visual avoidance of spiders in phobics also went hand in hand with subsequently reduced cognitive risk of encounters. Control participants, in contrast, displayed a positive relationship between gaze duration toward spiders, on the one hand, and autonomic responding, as well as OFC, ACC, and precuneus activity, on the other hand. In addition, they showed reduced encounter risk estimates when they looked longer at the animal pictures. Our data are consistent with the idea that one reason for phobics to avoid phobic information may be grounded in heightened activity in the fear circuit, which signals potential threat. Because of the absence of alternative efficient regulation strategies, visual avoidance may then function to down-regulate cognitive risk evaluations for threatening information about the phobic stimuli. Control participants, in contrast, may be characterized by a different coping style, whereby paying visual attention to potentially threatening information may help them to actively down-regulate cognitive evaluations of risk.

  13. Net reclassification indices for evaluating risk prediction instruments: a critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Kathleen F; Wang, Zheyu; Janes, Holly; McClelland, Robyn L; Psaty, Bruce M; Pepe, Margaret S

    2014-01-01

    Net reclassification indices have recently become popular statistics for measuring the prediction increment of new biomarkers. We review the various types of net reclassification indices and their correct interpretations. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of quantifying the prediction increment with these indices. For predefined risk categories, we relate net reclassification indices to existing measures of the prediction increment. We also consider statistical methodology for constructing confidence intervals for net reclassification indices and evaluate the merits of hypothesis testing based on such indices. We recommend that investigators using net reclassification indices should report them separately for events (cases) and nonevents (controls). When there are two risk categories, the components of net reclassification indices are the same as the changes in the true- and false-positive rates. We advocate the use of true- and false-positive rates and suggest it is more useful for investigators to retain the existing, descriptive terms. When there are three or more risk categories, we recommend against net reclassification indices because they do not adequately account for clinically important differences in shifts among risk categories. The category-free net reclassification index is a new descriptive device designed to avoid predefined risk categories. However, it experiences many of the same problems as other measures such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, the category-free index can mislead investigators by overstating the incremental value of a biomarker, even in independent validation data. When investigators want to test a null hypothesis of no prediction increment, the well-established tests for coefficients in the regression model are superior to the net reclassification index. If investigators want to use net reclassification indices, confidence intervals should be calculated using bootstrap methods

  14. Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2014-06-01

    Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural

  15. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...... and have decreasing relative risk premium. We finally introduce the notion of partial risk neutral preferences on binary lotteries and show that partial risk neutrality is equivalent to preferences with decreasing relative risk premium...

  16. Downside Variance Risk Premium

    OpenAIRE

    Feunou, Bruno; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.; Okou, Cédric

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new decomposition of the variance risk premium in terms of upside and downside variance risk premia. The difference between upside and downside variance risk premia is a measure of skewness risk premium. We establish that the downside variance risk premium is the main component of the variance risk premium, and that the skewness risk premium is a priced factor with significant prediction power for aggregate excess returns. Our empirical investigation highlights the positive and s...

  17. Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

    2016-03-08

    The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

  18. Use of relative risk test to evaluate the influence of the brand on beer acceptability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Maria Della Lucia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The acceptance of the product is very complex and it involves not only its sensory attributes but also non-sensory characteristics, often presented in the packaging or related to concepts regarding the consumer. The relative risk test was applied in order to investigate the effect of the brand, a non-sensory characteristic, on consumers’ acceptance of beer. Eight commercial brands of Pilsen beer were evaluated by 101 consumers in two sessions of acceptance tests: the blind test and the test with brand information. As a general view, it could be concluded that three brands of beer showed a positive impact over the sensory acceptance of the product and four brands negatively impacted on consumers’ evaluation. One of the brands did not show any influence over the consumers’ response. The relative risk method was practical and useful as it was easily calculated and reproduced, and its application permitted easy interpretation of the results.

  19. Meeting the Needs of USGS's Science Application for Risk Reduction Group through Evaluation Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, L.; Campbell, N. M.; Vickery, J.; Madera, A.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) group aims to support innovative collaborations in hazard science by uniting a broad range of stakeholders to produce and disseminate knowledge in ways that are useful for decision-making in hazard mitigation, planning, and preparedness. Since 2013, an evaluation team at the Natural Hazards Center (NHC) has worked closely with the SAFRR group to assess these collaborations and communication efforts. In contributing to the nexus between academia and practice, or "pracademia," we use evaluation research to provide the USGS with useful feedback for crafting relevant information for practitioners and decision-makers. This presentation will highlight how the NHC team has varied our methodological and information design approaches according to the needs of each project, which in turn assist the SAFRR group in meeting the needs of practitioners and decision-makers. As the foci of our evaluation activities with SAFRR have evolved, so have our efforts to ensure that our work appropriately matches the information needs of each scenario project. We draw upon multiple projects, including evaluation work on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, "The First Sue Nami" tsunami awareness messaging, and their most recent project concerning a hypothetical M7 earthquake on the Hayward fault in the Bay Area (HayWired scenario). We have utilized various qualitative and quantitative methodologies—including telephone interviews, focus groups, online surveys, nonparticipant observation, and in-person survey distribution. The findings generated from these series of evaluations highlight the ways in which evaluation research can be used by researchers and academics to more appropriately address the needs of practitioners. Moreover, they contribute to knowledge enhancement surrounding disaster preparedness and risk communication, and, more generally, the limited body of knowledge about evaluation-focused disaster

  20. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

  1. Computer simulation of microgravity long-term effects and risk evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate possible long-term effects of microgravity on the human pulmonary function. It is also studied the efficacy of long-term regular exercise on relevant cardiovascular parameters when the human body is also exposed to microgravity. Little is known today about what long-term effects microgravity may cause on pulmonary function. It does not exist a complete explanation of the possible risks involved, although some experiments are under way on the ISS in order to evaluate them. Computer simulations are an important tool which may be used to predict and analyse these possible effects, and compare them with in-flight experiments. We based our study on a previous computer model (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects) which was developed in our laboratory and validated with the available data, focusing on the cardiovascular parameters affected by changes in gravity exposure. In this previous work we simulated part of the cardiovascular systems and we applied it to evaluate risks of blood-forming organs malfunction. NELME is based on an electrical-like control system model of the physiological changes, that may occur when gravity changes are applied. The computer implementation has a modular architecture. Hence, different output parameters, potential effects, organs and countermeasures can be easily implemented and evaluated. In this work we added a module to the system to analyse the pulmonary function with a gravity input parameter, as well as exposure time. We then conducted a battery of simulations when different values of g are applied for long-term exposures. We found no significant evidence of changes and no risks were foreseen. We also carried out an EVA simulation as a perturbation in the system (intense exercise, changes in breathed air) and studied the acute response. This is of great importance as current mission requirements do not allow data collection immediately following real EVAs

  2. Risks of advanced technology - Nuclear: risk comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latarjet, R. (Institut du Radium, Orsay (France))

    The author presents a general definition of the concept of risk and makes a distinction between the various types of risk - the absolute and the relative; the risk for oneself and for others. The quantitative comparison of risks presupposes their ''interchangeability''. In the case of major risks in the long term - or genotoxic risks - there is a certain degree of interchangeability which makes this quantitative comparison possible. It is expressed by the concept of rad-equivalence which the author defines and explains giving as a concrete example the work conducted on ethylene and ethylene oxide.

  3. Selective fusion in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a radiographic evaluation of risk factors for imbalance

    OpenAIRE

    Studer, D; Awais, A.; N. Williams; Antoniou, G.; Eardley-Harris, N.; Cundy, P.

    2015-01-01

    Study design Retrospective database, chart and medical imaging review. Objectives To report on the outcome and evaluate possible risk factors for postoperative complications following selective spinal fusion in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Materials and methods All patients with AIS who underwent either a selective thoracic or selective thoracolumbar/lumbar spinal fusion at our institution from January 2001 to December 2011 inclusive were included in this study. The mi...

  4. USING STRESS TESTING METHODOLOGY IN EVALUATING BANKING INSTITUTION’S EXPOSURE TO RISK

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan TRENCA; Simona MUTU; Maria-Miruna POCHEA

    2010-01-01

    In order to correctly estimate the unpredictable effects on their transaction portfolios, the banks developed stress testing methods which turned out to be a very important tool in the bank supervision process. Moreover, the supervision authorities started using stress-testing methods for evaluating systemic risk and for determining the adequacy degree of capital in the banking sector. Taking into account the importance of these simulations, the present paper presents methodologies with which...

  5. Evaluation of Inflammatory Markers in Pregnant Women at Risk, for the Prediction of Preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oancea Mihaela Daniela

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: A low degree of inflammation has been associated with complications in pregnancies, including preeclampsia (PE. The aim of our study was to determine the serum values of high sensitivity C Reactive Protein (hs-CRP and Interleukin-6 (IL-6 in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy in pregnant women with risk factors for the development of PE, and to evaluate their relevance for the prediction of this disorder.

  6. Clinical pathological evaluation and risk factors of oral cancer cases of east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Farini, M. S.; Azlina, A; Rushdan, I.; Manoharan, M; Zain, R. B.; Samsudin, A. R.

    2005-01-01

    Introduction: Oral cancer is one of the common cancers m Malaysia. Tile population of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has a different hfestyle and Malay is the predominant race. Oral cancer research in this area started since the Malaysian National Oral Cancer group was established. The am: of this study is to evaluate the clinical pathological findings and to investigate the role of tobacco smoking, alcohol consurnption and betel quid chewing as tile risk factors among oral cancer cases m ...

  7. Technology evaluation for a mobile fall-injury risk assessment instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Leanne M; Chen, Elizabeth S

    2007-10-11

    Falls and associated injuries in the inpatient environment continue to be an unsolved patient safety problem. At New York-Presbyterian Hospital (NYP), an automated fall-injury risk assessment (FIRA) instrument was developed and integrated into the desktop-based clinical information system. The following study focuses on the evaluation criteria for hardware, software, and wireless communication options to study the use of a mobile version of the instrument.

  8. Evaluation of socio-spatial vulnerability of citydwellers and analysis of risk perception: industrial and seismic risks in Mulhouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glatron, S.; Beck, E.

    2008-10-01

    Social vulnerability has been studied for years with sociological, psychological and economical approaches. Our proposition focuses on perception and cognitive representations of risks by city dwellers living in a medium size urban area, namely Mulhouse (France). Perception, being part of the social vulnerability and resilience of the society to disasters, influences the potential damage; for example it leads to adequate or inadequate behaviour in the case of an emergency. As geographers, we assume that the spatial relationship to danger or hazard can be an important factor of vulnerability and we feel that the spatial dimension is a challenging question either for better knowledge or for operational reasons (e.g. management of preventive information). We interviewed 491 people, inhabitants and workers, regularly distributed within the urban area to get to know their opinion on hazards and security measures better. We designed and mapped a vulnerability index on the basis of their answers. The results show that the social vulnerability depends on the type of hazard, and that the distance to the source of danger influences the vulnerability, especially for hazards with a precise location (industrial for example). Moreover, the effectiveness of the information campaigns is doubtful, as the people living close to hazardous industries (target of specific preventive information) are surprisingly more vulnerable and less aware of industrial risk.

  9. Evaluation of socio-spatial vulnerability of citydwellers and analysis of risk perception: industrial and seismic risks in Mulhouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Glatron

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Social vulnerability has been studied for years with sociological, psychological and economical approaches. Our proposition focuses on perception and cognitive representations of risks by city dwellers living in a medium size urban area, namely Mulhouse (France. Perception, being part of the social vulnerability and resilience of the society to disasters, influences the potential damage; for example it leads to adequate or inadequate behaviour in the case of an emergency. As geographers, we assume that the spatial relationship to danger or hazard can be an important factor of vulnerability and we feel that the spatial dimension is a challenging question either for better knowledge or for operational reasons (e.g. management of preventive information. We interviewed 491 people, inhabitants and workers, regularly distributed within the urban area to get to know their opinion on hazards and security measures better. We designed and mapped a vulnerability index on the basis of their answers. The results show that the social vulnerability depends on the type of hazard, and that the distance to the source of danger influences the vulnerability, especially for hazards with a precise location (industrial for example. Moreover, the effectiveness of the information campaigns is doubtful, as the people living close to hazardous industries (target of specific preventive information are surprisingly more vulnerable and less aware of industrial risk.

  10. Evaluation and financial risk management of urban renewal projects in partnership with public and private

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Hassani

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Financing plays an important role for renewal of old city building is find suitable financing plan. A proper financial management in one hand has a direct relationship with project main factors such as: time, cost and quality of the project, and on the other hand, achieving project goals requires a comprehensive insight of project, stockholders as well as other relative situation in regard with the project. Considering the complication of execution such projects and the number of shareholders, one of the best attitudes towards the project management is risk management. This research is a qualitative and practical, which reviews the effects of project management factors on financial return of urban renewal sachem. The required information gained through a survey and via questionnaire and interviews with specialists. This article first describes the public private financial partnership and then, based on the results gained from a case study done on one of the renewal schemes in Mashhad metropolitan areas. Next, it identifies and evaluates of positive and negative risks, which lead to threats and opportunities will be performed and will attempt to respond the existent risks. Finally, we provide a framework for the risk assessment of the housing units.

  11. Evaluation of triclosan in Minnesota lakes and rivers: Part II - human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yost, Lisa J; Barber, Timothy R; Gentry, P Robinan; Bock, Michael J; Lyndall, Jennifer L; Capdevielle, Marie C; Slezak, Brian P

    2017-08-01

    Triclosan, an antimicrobial compound found in consumer products, has been detected in low concentrations in Minnesota municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. This assessment evaluates potential health risks for exposure of adults and children to triclosan in Minnesota surface water, sediments, and fish. Potential exposures via fish consumption are considered for recreational or subsistence-level consumers. This assessment uses two chronic oral toxicity benchmarks, which bracket other available toxicity values. The first benchmark is a lower bound on a benchmark dose associated with a 10% risk (BMDL10) of 47mg per kilogram per day (mg/kg-day) for kidney effects in hamsters. This value was identified as the most sensitive endpoint and species in a review by Rodricks et al. (2010) and is used herein to derive an estimated reference dose (RfD(Rodricks)) of 0.47mg/kg-day. The second benchmark is a reference dose (RfD) of 0.047mg/kg-day derived from a no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) of 10mg/kg-day for hepatic and hematopoietic effects in mice (Minnesota Department of Health [MDH] 2014). Based on conservative assumptions regarding human exposures to triclosan, calculated risk estimates are far below levels of concern. These estimates are likely to overestimate risks for potential receptors, particularly because sample locations were generally biased towards known discharges (i.e., WWTP effluent). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, Scott M., E-mail: scott.weir@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States); Suski, Jamie G., E-mail: jamie.suski@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 43131, Lubbock, TX (United States); Salice, Christopher J., E-mail: chris.salice@ttu.ed [Texas Tech University, Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Department of Environmental Toxicology, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2010-12-15

    A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation. - Avian receptors are not universally appropriate surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment.

  13. The ABC's of Suicide Risk Assessment: Applying a Tripartite Approach to Individual Evaluations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith M Harris

    Full Text Available There is considerable need for accurate suicide risk assessment for clinical, screening, and research purposes. This study applied the tripartite affect-behavior-cognition theory, the suicidal barometer model, classical test theory, and item response theory (IRT, to develop a brief self-report measure of suicide risk that is theoretically-grounded, reliable and valid. An initial survey (n = 359 employed an iterative process to an item pool, resulting in the six-item Suicidal Affect-Behavior-Cognition Scale (SABCS. Three additional studies tested the SABCS and a highly endorsed comparison measure. Studies included two online surveys (Ns = 1007, and 713, and one prospective clinical survey (n = 72; Time 2, n = 54. Factor analyses demonstrated SABCS construct validity through unidimensionality. Internal reliability was high (α = .86-.93, split-half = .90-.94. The scale was predictive of future suicidal behaviors and suicidality (r = .68, .73, respectively, showed convergent validity, and the SABCS-4 demonstrated clinically relevant sensitivity to change. IRT analyses revealed the SABCS captured more information than the comparison measure, and better defined participants at low, moderate, and high risk. The SABCS is the first suicide risk measure to demonstrate no differential item functioning by sex, age, or ethnicity. In all comparisons, the SABCS showed incremental improvements over a highly endorsed scale through stronger predictive ability, reliability, and other properties. The SABCS is in the public domain, with this publication, and is suitable for clinical evaluations, public screening, and research.

  14. Evaluation of the potential health risks of substances migrating from polycarbonate replacement baby bottles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Birgit; Van Hoeck, Els; Blaude, Marie-Noëlle; Simon, Coraline; Onghena, Matthias; Vandermarken, Tara; Van Langenhove, Kersten; Demaegdt, Heidi; Vandermeiren, Karin; Covaci, Adrian; Scippo, Marie-Louise; Elskens, Marc; Van Loco, Joris

    2016-11-01

    Since the European Commission prohibited the use of bisphenol A in the production of polycarbonate (PC) baby bottles, many other materials have replaced PC for the manufacture of this type of food contact materials. In the present study, the potential migration risks associated with these alternative materials were investigated. First, all substances were evaluated for endocrine disruptive (ED) activity by using different existing lists of (suspected) ED chemicals. Next, the potential non-ED risks were assessed. A distinction was made between migrants listed in Annex I of European Regulation 10/2011 and the unlisted substances (e.g. non-intentionally added substances). For the listed substances, concentrations in the migration solutions were compared to their respective specific migration limits (SML) (when applicable). Migration of all substances was shown to be below their SML. The unlisted substances were evaluated using toxicological information from previous evaluations, or if not available, by applying the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) approach. In case the estimated exposure to the unlisted substance exceeded the human exposure TTC value, a more indepth risk assessment was performed. Based on the results of both parts of the study, four baby bottles were considered of high concern because of the potential toxicity of migrating compounds.

  15. Cyber security risk evaluation of a nuclear I and C using BN and ET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Jin Soo; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Computer and Game Science, Joongbu University, Geumsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

  16. Cyber Security Risk Evaluation of a Nuclear I&C Using BN and ET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinsoo Shin

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Cyber security is an important issue in the field of nuclear engineering because nuclear facilities use digital equipment and digital systems that can lead to serious hazards in the event of an accident. Regulatory agencies worldwide have announced guidelines for cyber security related to nuclear issues, including U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 5.71. It is important to evaluate cyber security risk in accordance with these regulatory guides. In this study, we propose a cyber security risk evaluation model for nuclear instrumentation and control systems using a Bayesian network and event trees. As it is difficult to perform penetration tests on the systems, the evaluation model can inform research on cyber threats to cyber security systems for nuclear facilities through the use of prior and posterior information and backpropagation calculations. Furthermore, we suggest a methodology for the application of analytical results from the Bayesian network model to an event tree model, which is a probabilistic safety assessment method. The proposed method will provide insight into safety and cyber security risks.

  17. Risk Evaluation and Capital Allocation Based on TVaR and EVaR with Copula

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jinghai FENG; Lixin SONG; Zhineng FU

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,the expressions of tail value of risk (TVaR) and exponential tail value of risk (EVaR) for the total risk portfolio are given,which are splitted into two cases:the bivariate case and the multivariate case according to the number of the insurances.Then the risk contributions of the insurances portfolio and the credit portfolio are also obtained.Further more,for clarifying the above results,a numerical example is given.

  18. Implications of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) programs for managed care pharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Gaurang; Chon, Ashley; Johnson, Nik; Kidder, Phyllis A; Lee, Peter; Leung, Kevin; Ma, Ingrid; Ness, Stacey; Sampsel, Elizabeth; Schlaifer, Marissa; Seifert, Randall; Sternaman, Debora B

    2012-04-01

    In the last 2 decades, health care management has been challenged by more aggressive therapy, the increased number of specialty medications, and more stringent guidelines to monitor adverse events or health risk. To promote patient safety, various communication requirements are mandated to increase the risk awareness of patients and physicians. These include black-box warnings, "Dear Health Care Provider" letters, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Talk Papers, MedGuides, and Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs).

  19. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M Cooley; Chrsitopher S Galik; Thomas P Holmes; Carolyn Kousky; Roger M Cooke

    2011-01-01

    Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect...

  20. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

  1. Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

  2. Evaluation of Relationship of Spatial Planning-Georisks and Urban Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Bartin

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    While Turkey is located on a geography having the natural hazards which cause disasters such as earthquake, flood, landslide and the like, a lot of settlement areas are exposed to the risks on various levels caused by these hazards. The spatial planning approach including urban risk evaluation studies for the identification of previously the hazard occurring risks and the detection of the damage levels will help to reduce the losses which will be occurred by the negative social and economical...

  3. Scientific Opinion on the risk to plant health posed by Puccinia horiana Hennings for the EU territory, with the identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Puccinia horiana Hennings (the causal agent of chrysanthemum white rust for the EU territory, identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness. The assessment was conducted taking into account current EU legislation. The Panel also provided an opinion on the effectiveness of the present EU requirements against this organism, listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Two major pathways for entry were identified: plant material of susceptible hosts for propagation purposes and cut flowers of Chrysanthemum × morifolium. The probability of further entry of the pest was considered unlikely, as the existing certification schemes for propagation material should reduce the risk of importing infected cuttings. For cut flowers, pest transfer to susceptible hosts is associated with the potentially incorrect disposal of cut flower waste within the vicinity of places of production, which is considered a rare event. The probability of establishment and further spread were both considered very likely. The current overall impact in the risk assessment area was considered minor, with medium uncertainty, mainly because standard protective actions are taken in most EU production areas. Risk reduction options to reduce the probability of entry and spread and mitigate the impact were analysed. Council Directive 2000/29/EC addresses mainly the sanitary status of the propagation material. The Directive cannot prevent the entry, establishment and spread, or mitigate the impact, of the pathogen. Were the current regulation to be removed, the frequency of introduction would probably increase. This poses a risk because, although the pest is widespread in the risk assessment area, not all Member States are infested and not all pest pathotypes are present. If a statutory certification system, with associated import requirements for propagation material of host plants, were introduced, this

  4. Evaluation of testicular dose and associated risk from common pelvis radiation therapy in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanei, Ahmad; Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi, Milad

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) was also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that, the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10,000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P pelvis size (r = 0.275, P < 0.001). Using the student's t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

  5. Chemical Risk Evaluation: A Case Study in an Automotive Air Conditioner Production Facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengku Hanidza T.I.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available There has been limited knowledge on worker’s exposure to chemicals used in the automotive industries. The purpose of this study is to assess chemical risk and to determine the adequacy of the existing control measures to reduce chemical exposure. A cross sectional survey was conducted in a factory involving installation and servicing of automotive air conditioner units. Qualitative exposure assessment was carried out following the Malaysian Chemical Health Risk Assessment Manual (CHRA. There were 180 employees, 156 workers worked in the production line, which constitutes six work units Tube fin pressed, Brazing, Welding, Final assembly, Piping and Kit II. From the chemical risk evaluation for each work unit, 26 chemical compounds were used. Most of the chemicals were irritants (eye and skin and some were asphyxiants and sensitizers. Based on the work assignment, 93 out of 180 (51.67% of the workers were exposed to chemicals. The highest numbers of workers exposed to chemicals were from the Brazing section (22.22% while the Final Assembly section was the lowest (1.67%. Health survey among the workers showed occurrence of eye irritation, skin irritation, and respiratory irritation, symptoms usually associated with chemical exposure. Using a risk rating matrix, several work process were identified as having ‘significant risk’. For these areas, the workers are at risk of adverse health effects since chemical exposure is not adequately controlled. This study recommends corrective actions be taken in order to control the level of exposure and to provide a safe work environment for workers.

  6. [Pollution evaluation and health risk assessment of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ping; Xue, Su-Yin; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

    2014-03-01

    In order to evaluate the contamination and health risk of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou, samples of atmospheric deposition were collected from 11 sampling sites respectively and their concentrations of heavy metals were determined. The results showed that the average contents of Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn and Mn were 82.22, 130.31, 4.34, 88.73, 40.64, 369.23 and 501.49 mg x kg(-1), respectively. There was great difference among different functional areas for all elements except Mn. According to the results, the enrichment factor score of Mn was close to 1, while the enrichment of Zn, Ni, Cu and Cr was more serious, and Pb and Cd were extremely enriched. The assessment results of geoaccumulation index of potential ecological risk indicated that the pollution of Cd in the atmospheric deposition of Lanzhou should be classified as extreme degree, and that of Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb as between slight and extreme degrees, and Cr as practically uncontaminated. Contaminations of atmospheric dust by heavy metals in October to the next March were more serious than those from April to August. Health risk assessment indicated that the heavy metals in atmospheric deposition were mainly ingested by human bodies through hand-mouth ingestion. The non-cancer risk was higher for children than for adults. The order of non-cancer hazard indexes of heavy metals was Pb > Cr > Cd > Cu > Ni > Zn. The non-cancer hazard indexes and carcinogen risks of heavy metals were both lower than their threshold values, suggesting that they will not harm the health.

  7. Evaluation of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculators for Shared Decision Making Across Diverse Urology Practices in Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auffenberg, Gregory B; Merdan, Selin; Miller, David C; Singh, Karandeep; Stockton, Benjamin R; Ghani, Khurshid R; Denton, Brian T

    2017-06-01

    To compare the predictive performance of a logistic regression model developed with contemporary data from a diverse group of urology practices to that of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) Risk Calculator version 2.0. With data from all first-time prostate biopsies performed between January 2012 and March 2015 across the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC), we developed a multinomial logistic regression model to predict the likelihood of finding high-grade cancer (Gleason score ≥7), low-grade cancer (Gleason score ≤6), or no cancer on prostate biopsy. The performance of the MUSIC model was evaluated in out-of-sample data using 10-fold cross-validation. Discrimination and calibration statistics were used to compare the performance of the MUSIC model to that of the PCPT risk calculator in the MUSIC cohort. Of the 11,809 biopsies included, 4289 (36.3%) revealed high-grade cancer; 2027 (17.2%) revealed low-grade cancer; and the remaining 5493 (46.5%) were negative. In the MUSIC model, prostate-specific antigen level, rectal examination findings, age, race, and family history of prostate cancer were significant predictors of finding high-grade cancer on biopsy. The 2 models, based on similar predictors, had comparable discrimination (multiclass area under the curve = 0.63 for the MUSIC model and 0.62 for the PCPT calculator). Calibration analyses demonstrated that the MUSIC model more accurately predicted observed outcomes, whereas the PCPT risk calculator substantively overestimated the likelihood of finding no cancer while underestimating the risk of high-grade cancer in this population. The PCPT risk calculator may not be a good predictor of individual biopsy outcomes for patients seen in contemporary urology practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Evaluation of otoacoustic emissions and auditory brainstem responses for hearing screening of high risk infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Nazir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The objective of the present study is the assessment of otoacoustic emissions (OAEs and auditory brainstem responses (ABRs for hearing screening of high risk infants. Study Design: Prospective, hospital-based. Materials and Methods: Distortion product OAEs (DPOAEs and brainstem evoked response audiometry (BERA recordings were obtained for 30 controls and 100 infants with one or more high risk factors, in a sound treated room and the results were interpreted. ABR peak latencies, amplitudes, and waveform morphology in high risk infants were compared with those in control group. DPOAE as screening test was evaluated in terms of various parameters with BERA/ABR taken as gold standard. Results: Absolute latencies of Wave I and Wave V and interpeak latency of I-V were significantly prolonged in high risk group as compared to control group. The most common causes to contribute significantly for hearing impairment were found to be hyperbilirubinemia, birth asphyxia, meningitis/septicemia. DPOAE when compared with ABR taken as gold standard showed that sensitivity of the test was 87.7% (74.5%-94.9% and specificity was 74.5% (60.0%-85.2%. Positive predictive value was 76.7% (63.2%-86.6% and negative predictive value of the test was 86% (71.9%-94.3%. Positive likelihood ratio was 0.29 (0.18-0.46 and negative likelihood ratio was 6.08 (2.82-13.09. Conclusion : ABR/BERA, though highly reliable, is a tedious and time consuming test. DPOAE is a simple and rapid test with relatively higher acceptability but low sensitivity and specificity; therefore, limits its role as independent screening test. DPOAE-ABR test series is an effective way to screen all the high risk infants at the earliest.

  9. Evaluation of snow-glide risk by modelling and on-site assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitinger, Georg; Meusburger, Katrin; Rüdisser, Johannes; Tasser, Erich; Höller, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Abandonment of agricultural practices on alpine grasslands lead to increasing snow-glide intensities due to lower surface roughness of the vegetation. Beneath the danger of snow-glide avalanches snow gliding leads to soil erosion and damaging of young trees at afforested sites. Especially in high altitudes afforestation is important to protect settlements and infrastructure against snow-gliding and glide avalanches. Snow-glide damages are therefore of particular danger for these afforestation sites. In the light of future climate change and warmer winter periods, studies already state increasing snow-glide risk and the occurrence of glide avalanches. This study presents an approach to evaluate snow-glide risk by combining the refined Spatial Snow Glide Model (SSGM) first published by Leitinger et al. (2008) and the Guidelines to Identify Snow-Glide Areas (GISGA) proposed by Höller (2012), an on-site risk analyses approach. First, GISGA was validated on the basis of corresponding snow-glide measurements. Second, a potential snow-glide map for an area in the Eastern Alps covering 20000 km² was modelled. The results revealed considerable areas of high snow-glide risk. Using the average amount of winter precipitation between 1990 and 2010 in the SSGM shows higher vulnerability for the northern part of the study area (Tyrol, Austria) than in the southern part (South Tyrol, Italy) because of lower winter precipitation. However, running the SSGM based on the highest winter precipitation registered in the study area between 1801 and 2003 exhibits the possibility of very high snow-glide risk for most parts of the study area with significant increasing risk in the southern part. Given the very probable future climate during winter periods with increasing temperatures but uncertain development of precipitation patterns, snow-glide activity and linked glide avalanches might further increase at least in areas and altitudes with solid precipitation. In combination with the

  10. Evaluation of Lay Support in Pregnant women with Social risk (ELSIPS: a randomised controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenyon Sara

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes are worse in families from black and ethnic minority groups and disadvantaged backgrounds. There is little evidence on whether lay support improves maternal and infant outcomes among women with complex social needs within a disadvantaged multi-ethnic population in the United Kingdom (UK. Method/Design The aim of this study is to evaluate a lay Pregnancy Outreach Worker (POW service for nulliparous women identified as having social risk within a maternity service that is systematically assessing social risks alongside the usual obstetric and medical risks. The study design is a randomised controlled trial (RCT in nulliparous women assessed as having social risk comparing standard maternity care with the addition of referral to the POW support service. The POWs work alongside community midwifery teams and offer individualised support to women to encourage engagement with services (health and social care from randomisation (before 28 weeks gestation until 6 weeks after birth. The primary outcomes have been chosen on the basis that they are linked to maternal and infant health. The two primary outcomes are engagement with antenatal care, assessed by the number of antenatal visits; and maternal depression, assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8-12 weeks after birth. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, routine child health assessments, including immunisation uptake and breastfeeding at 6 weeks. Other psychological outcomes (self efficacy and mother-to-infant bonding will also be collected using validated tools. A sample size of 1316 will provide 90% power (at the 5% significance level to detect increased engagement with antenatal services of 1.5 visits and a reduction of 1.5 in the average EPDS score for women with two or more social risk factors, with power in excess of this for women with any social risk factor. Analysis will

  11. Evaluation on the Risks of Agricultural Industrial Chain Based on FAHP——A Case of Regions Inhabited by Ethnic Groups in Wuling Mountain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Through recognizing the risking factors of industrial chain and selecting appropriate evaluation method, the index system on evaluating risking factors including market risk, natural risk, contact risk and efficiency risk in industrial chain is constructed,26 weighting indicators under the four layers are set up. Taking regions inhabited by ethnic groups in Wuling Mountain as an example, the risking factors of agricultural industrial chain in the area are analyzed by adopting the FAHP. The influencing degree of each risking factor on credit risks is analyzed. The results assume that with the market risk, contract risk, natural risk and efficiency risk. The natural risks become the principal risks of agricultural industrial chain and it should be paid much attention to. The low credit risk is a major factor that causes the contract between enterprise and rural households. The flood, pests, diseases and disasters also should be paid high attention to that is regarded as risking factors. The risking factors that come from the efficiency risk layer, for example, the unequal profit distribution among enterprises has little effect on enterprises in industrial chain. The research results provide evidence for stipulating risk prevention measures.

  12. Investigations regarding the evaluation of specific intellectual property production risks within Quality Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakocs, R.; Lupulescu, N. B.

    2016-11-01

    This paper is a theoretical research concerning methods for risk assessment of specific intellectual property production risks that are identified in the product achievement stage within the Quality Management System. In order to realize this, we will start by identifying the specific intellectual property production risks and by proposing some new calculating formulas for minimalizing their negative effects. The theoretical model proposed assessment of specific intellectual property production risks, will be realized based on 3 hypothetical situations. This study intends to reduce the intellectual property risks identified in the production process of commercial societies that have an industrial profile.

  13. Evaluation of the pressure ulcers risk scales with critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa Tomazini Borghardt

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available AIMS: to evaluate the accuracy of the Braden and Waterlow risk assessment scales in critically ill inpatients.METHOD: this prospective cohort study, with 55 patients in intensive care units, was performed through evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical variables, through the application of the scales (Braden and Waterlow upon admission and every 48 hours; and through the evaluation and classification of the ulcers into categories.RESULTS: the pressure ulcer incidence was 30.9%, with the Braden and Waterlow scales presenting high sensitivity (41% and 71% and low specificity (21% and 47% respectively in the three evaluations. The cut off scores found in the first, second and third evaluations were 12, 12 and 11 in the Braden scale, and 16, 15 and 14 in the Waterlow scale.CONCLUSION: the Braden scale was shown to be a good screening instrument, and the Waterlow scale proved to have better predictive power.

  14. EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia MÂRŢU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict clinical and paraclinical examinations, on establishing the inflammation indices and the periodontal diagnosis. Results: The main cause of the analysis was gingival ble‐ eding; an increased number of smokers was registered among the patients. Out of the local factors, especially important were edentations and malocclusions. Also, a higher number of aggressive generalized periodontites has been noticed. Discussion: The forms of the periodontal diseases are obviously influenced by the systemic context, while the forms of localized chronic periodontitis associa‐ ted with generalized chronic gingivitis reflect the role pla‐ yed by the local risk factors. Conclusions: Stress and smoking represent significant risk factors in the installation of periodontal pathology, with a really alarming preva‐ lence. The aggressive forms of periodontitis showed a higher frequency than that recorded in literature.

  15. Evaluation on Potential Ecological Risk of Heavy Metals in Soil from Penglai Fairyland Park

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhen YANG; Di WU; Zhun XIANG; Chao KANG; Fang WANG; Zhu HUANG; Lin ZHANG

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at evaluating the heavy metals pollution in soil collected from Penglai Fairyland Park in Guiyang,and predicting the harm of heavy metals to human health. Based on the background value of soil in Guizhou and Soil Environment Quality Standard( GB15618-1995),by using the geoaccumulation index method and Hakanson potential ecological risk assessment method,we research pollution characteristics and ecological risk of heavy metals in soil from the study area. The results show that from the index of geoaccumulation,the pollution level of heavy metals in agricultural soil from Penglai Fairyland Park is in the order of Ni > Cu > Hg > Cd > As > Zn > Cr > Pb. From the potential ecological harm index evaluation,soil is at slight ecological risk level in the park and the potential ecological hazard degree is in the order of Hg > Cd > Ni > As > Cu > Cr > Pb > Zn. The soil ecological environment in research area is only mildly damaged. Thus,the soil in research area is at the level of security,and it is suitable for cultivation of crops and less harmful to human health.

  16. Large-scale evaluation of candidate genes identifies associations between VEGF polymorphisms and bladder cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat García-Closas

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Common genetic variation could alter the risk for developing bladder cancer. We conducted a large-scale evaluation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in candidate genes for cancer to identify common variants that influence bladder cancer risk. An Illumina GoldenGate assay was used to genotype 1,433 SNPs within or near 386 genes in 1,086 cases and 1,033 controls in Spain. The most significant finding was in the 5' UTR of VEGF (rs25648, p for likelihood ratio test, 2 degrees of freedom = 1 x 10(-5. To further investigate the region, we analyzed 29 additional SNPs in VEGF, selected to saturate the promoter and 5' UTR and to tag common genetic variation in this gene. Three additional SNPs in the promoter region (rs833052, rs1109324, and rs1547651 were associated with increased risk for bladder cancer: odds ratio (95% confidence interval: 2.52 (1.06-5.97, 2.74 (1.26-5.98, and 3.02 (1.36-6.63, respectively; and a polymorphism in intron 2 (rs3024994 was associated with reduced risk: 0.65 (0.46-0.91. Two of the promoter SNPs and the intron 2 SNP showed linkage disequilibrium with rs25648. Haplotype analyses revealed three blocks of linkage disequilibrium with significant associations for two blocks including the promoter and 5' UTR (global p = 0.02 and 0.009, respectively. These findings are biologically plausible since VEGF is critical in angiogenesis, which is important for tumor growth, its elevated expression in bladder tumors correlates with tumor progression, and specific 5' UTR haplotypes have been shown to influence promoter activity. Associations between bladder cancer risk and other genes in this report were not robust based on false discovery rate calculations. In conclusion, this large-scale evaluation of candidate cancer genes has identified common genetic variants in the regulatory regions of VEGF that could be associated with bladder cancer risk.

  17. Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-09-12

    Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  18. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert M. Clark; Robert C. Thurnau

    2011-01-01

    Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure.This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie,Wyoming,USA).Using the risk model a cost/benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM),is used to assist in making improved repair,replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes.A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP).Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

  19. COUNTRY RISK EVALUATION IMPACT ON FDI FLOW. MEDIUM RUN EVIDENCE FROM ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMILIA UNGUREANU

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available During the last two decades, Romanian economy suffered numerous changes, with direct impact in the socio-economic and political life. This affected also the investment environment, the degree of attractiveness for investors and the flow of FDIs. As the economic system has a global dimension, the need of evaluating different countries from a risk perspective (that will serve as starting point for investor’s decision has increased the role of rating agencies, especially in the economic crisis context. Therefore, by applying two econometric models, we will determine in which degree the risk rating (using the Euromoney index is influencing the FDI flow in Romania, having as evidence the period 1996-2012.

  20. Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadiq, R. [National Research Council, Ottawa. Ont. (Canada). Institute for Research in Construction; Husain, T.; Veitch, B.; Bose, N. [Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John' s, (Canada). Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

    2004-11-01

    Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario). (author)0.

  1. Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sadiq, R. [National Research Council, Ottawa. Ont. (Canada). Institute for Research in Construction; Husain, T.; Veitch, B.; Bose, N. [Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John' s, (Canada). Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

    2004-11-01

    Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario). (author)

  2. Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

    2017-04-01

    In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

  3. [Diagnosis "risk of pneumonia" evidence-based evaluation and comparison of nursing interventions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslinger-Baumann, Elisabeth; Burns, Evelin

    2007-12-01

    In home nursing care, professionally qualified nurses make decisions on their own which must be based on the latest scientific research. The goal of this systematic literature review was to examine if the interventions of the diagnosis "Risk of Pneumonia" as used by a home care service provider in Austria are based on scientific evidence. Based on the research question "Can the interventions of the diagnosis 'risk of pneumonia' be found in the scientific nursing literature?", four evidence-based guidelines from various databases and institutes were identified and evaluated using a standardized checklist. The result of the analysis is that the majority of the Nursing diagnosis interventions can be found in the guidelines. It is also recommended in the guidelines to advise and support clients to stop smoking and inoculate against influenza/pneumonia. Similarly, assessment tools should be used to estimate the severity of pneumonia. The intervention of oral hygiene as a prophylactic intervention against pneumonia should get particular attention.

  4. Evaluation and improvement of methods to quantify the exploration risk of geothermal projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganz, Britta; Schellschmidt, Rüdiger; Schulz, Rüdiger; Thomas, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    The quantification of exploration risks is of major importance for geothermal project planning. The exploration risk is defined as the risk of not successfully achieving a geothermal reservoir with minimum levels of thermal water production and reservoir temperatures (UNEP 2004). A simple method to quantify the probability of success (POS) for geothermal wells is to determine the single risks for temperature and flow rate and calculate the overall probability by multiplying the individual probabilities (SCHULZ et al. 2010). Since 2002, over 50 expert studies to evaluate the exploration risk of geothermal projects in Germany were carried out based on this method. The studies are requested as a basis for insurance contracts covering the risk of not achieving the necessary parameters. The estimated probabilities for temperature and flow rate in the expert reports were now compared with the parameters actually reached in meanwhile realised projects. The results are used for an improvement of the method. The probability of success for a given temperature was calculated using local temperature information in the vicinity of the planned well location. The greater significance of nearby temperature data was considered by inverse distance weighting. In highly productive deep aquifers, which are of major interest for geothermal projects, temperature gradients often strongly decrease due to an intense vertical mixing of the thermal water. Thus, the top of the considered aquifer was used as the reference point of the temperature assessment. As still some positive gradient can be expected within the aquifer, this is a conservative estimation. The evaluation of the reports should therefore especially answer the question, whether this approach has led to a systematic underestimation of the temperature. To calculate the probability of success for hydraulic parameters, the theoretical drawdown at a given flow rate was calculated for existing wells from hydraulic test data. The

  5. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  6. Supply Chain Collaboration Risk Evaluation Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers Similarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Supply chains are confronted with more complicated risks on the current financial crisis, as makes risk control in supply chain management more exigent. Supply chain collaboration, as the important part of supply chain management, is the key method of improving supply chains profits. This study introduces risk management into the mechanism of supply chain collaboration. In supply chain risk management, supply chain collaboration risk is recognized as an important section which can help SCM more efficiently. This study is aimed to present a collaboration risk analysis methods based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers similarity to solve this problem. By using two linguist terms probability of failure and severity of loss, supply chain collaboration risk can be calculated and expressed with linguistic term. At last, an example is used to identify the efficiency of this method.

  7. Evaluating total operational value and associated risks of financial holding companies in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Li-Hui

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study comprises several different parts. The first part applies a normal benchmark valuation model established by Penman to assess the potential whole operational values of FHCs. The second part applies the concept of measuring financial risk as earnings variance to establish a financial risk measurement model. This model can be used to examine the degrees of financial risk before and after FHC’s establishment, and to distinguish different combinations of FHC based on risk diversion efficiency. The final part of this research constructs a new value-risk relation model that can be applied to cross-analysis for measuring total operation value of FHCs with different degrees of financial risk. Through completion of the above steps this study will demonstrate what combination of FHC offers the co-benefits of risk diversion and high whole operational value.

  8. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, A.C.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Shiver, A.W. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA)); Smith, L.N. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs.

  9. Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

  10. Risk Characterization Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Handbook has two parts. The first is the Risk Characterization guidance itself. The second part comprises the Appendices which contain the Risk Characterization Policy, the risk characterization case studies and references.

  11. Cardiovascular risk calculation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James A. Ker

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... combined effects of several risk factors. Risk prediction ... but they have high intrinsic variance for the prediction of risk when applied to a given ... motivating patients to improve their vascular age by better adhering to therapy.6.

  12. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  13. Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard a...

  14. Evaluating Anthropogenic Risk of Grassland and Forest Habitat Degradation using Land-Cover Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Riitters

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The effects of landscape context on habitat quality are receiving increased attention in conservation biology. The objective of this research is to demonstrate a landscape-level approach to mapping and evaluating the anthropogenic risks of grassland and forest habitat degradation by examining habitat context as defined by intensive anthropogenic land uses at multiple spatial scales. A landscape mosaic model classifies a given location according to the amounts of intensive agriculture and intensive development in its surrounding landscape, providing measures of anthropogenic risks attributable to habitat isolation and edge effects at that location. The model is implemented using a land-cover map (0.09 ha/pixel of the conterminous United States and six landscape sizes (4.4, 15.2, 65.6, 591, 5300, and 47800 ha to evaluate the spatial scales of anthropogenic risk. Statistics for grassland and forest habitat are extracted by geographic overlays of the maps of land-cover and landscape mosaics. Depending on landscape size, 81 to 94 percent of all grassland and forest habitat occurs in landscapes that are dominated by natural land-cover including habitat itself. Within those natural-dominated landscapes, 50 percent of grassland and 59 percent of forest is within 590 m of intensive agriculture and/or intensive developed land which is typically a minor component of total landscape area. The conclusion is that anthropogenic risk attributable to habitat patch isolation affects a small proportion of the total grassland or forest habitat area, while the majority of habitat area is exposed to edge effects.

  15. Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

    1998-01-01

    Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

  16. Relative risk site evaluation for buildings 7740 and 7741 Fort Campbell, Kentucky

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, G.V.; Gilmore, T.J.; Bronson, F.J.

    1998-01-01

    Buildings 7740 and 7741 are a part of a former nuclear weapon`s storage and maintenance facility located in the southeastern portion of Fort Campbell, Kentucky. This underground tunnel complex was originally used as a classified storage area beginning in 1949 and continuing until 1969. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory recently completed a detailed Relative Risk Site Evaluation of the facility. This evaluation included (1) obtaining engineering drawings of the facility and associated structures, (2) conducting detailed radiological surveys, (3) air sampling, (4) sampling drainage systems, and (5) sampling the underground wastewater storage tank. Ten samples were submitted for laboratory analysis of radionuclides and priority pollutant metals, and two samples submitted for analysis of volatile organic compounds. No volatile organic contaminants were detected using field instruments or laboratory analyses. However, several radionuclides and metals were detected in water and/or soil/sediment samples collected from this facility. Of the radionuclides detected, only {sup 226}Ra may have come from facility operations; however, its concentration is at least one order of magnitude below the relative-risk comparison value. Several metals (arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, copper, mercury, lead, and antimony) were found to exceed the relative-risk comparison values for water, while only arsenic, cadmium, and lead were found to exceed the relative risk comparison values for soil. Of these constituents, it is believed that only arsenic, beryllium, mercury, and lead may have come from facility operations. Other significant hazards posed by the tunnel complex include radon exposure and potentially low oxygen concentrations (<19.5% in atmosphere) if the tunnel complex is not allowed to vent to the outside air. Asbestos-wrapped pipes, lead-based paint, rat poison, and possibly a selenium rectifier are also present within the tunnel complex.

  17. Proceedings of Conference XIII, evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charonnat, Barbara B.

    1981-01-01

    The participants in the conference concluded that a great deal of useful research has been performed in the national Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers and that the state-of-knowledge concerning the evaluation of seismic hazards and risk has been advanced substantially. Many of the technical issues raised during the conference are less controversial now because of new information and insights gained during the first three years of the expanded research program conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act. Utilization of research results by many groups of users has also improved during this period and further improvement in utilization appears likely. Additional research is still required to resolve more completely the many complex technical issues summarized above and described in the papers contained in the proceedings. Improved certainty of research results on the evaluation of regional seismic hazards and risk is required before full utilization can be made by state and local governments who deal. with people frequently having a different perception of the hazard and its risk to them than that perceived by scientists or engineers. Each of the papers contained in the proceedings contain throughtful recommendations for improving the state-of-knowledge. Two papers, in particular, focussed on this particular theme. The first was presented by Lynn Sykes in the Geologic Keynote Address. He identified geographic areas throughout the world which may be considered as counterparts or analogues of seismic zones in the United States. He concluded that much can be learned about prediction, tectonic settings, earthquake hazards, and earthquake risk for sites in the United States by studying their tectonic analogues in other countries. The second paper was presented by John Blume in the Engineering Keynote Address. He suggested 20 specific research topics that, in his opinion, will significantly advance the state

  18. A tiered assessment framework to evaluate human health risk of contaminated sediment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Bay, Steven M

    2015-07-01

    For sediment contaminated with bioaccumulative pollutants (e.g., PCBs and organochorine pesticides), human consumption of seafood that contain bioaccumulated sediment-derived contaminants is a well-established exposure pathway. Historically, regulation and management of this bioaccumulation pathway has focused on site-specific risk assessment. The state of California (United States) is supporting the development of a consistent and quantitative sediment assessment framework to aid in interpreting a narrative objective to protect human health. The conceptual basis of this framework focuses on 2 key questions: 1) do observed pollutant concentrations in seafood from a given site pose unacceptable health risks to human consumers? and 2) is sediment contamination at a site a significant contributor to seafood contamination? The first question is evaluated by interpreting seafood tissue concentrations at the site, based on health risk calculations. The second question is evaluated by interpreting site-specific sediment chemistry data using a food web bioaccumulation model. The assessment framework includes 3 tiers (screening assessment, site assessment, and refined site assessment), which enables the assessment to match variations in data availability, site complexity, and study objectives. The second and third tiers use a stochastic simulation approach, incorporating information on variability and uncertainty of key parameters, such as seafood contaminant concentration and consumption rate by humans. The framework incorporates site-specific values for sensitive parameters and statewide values for difficult to obtain or less sensitive parameters. The proposed approach advances risk assessment policy by incorporating local data into a consistent region-wide problem formulation, applying best available science in a streamlined fashion.

  19. The Struggle to Prevent and Evaluate: Application of Population Attributable Risk and Preventive Fraction to Suicide Prevention Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysinska, Karolina; Martin, Graham

    2009-01-01

    Population attributable risk (PAR) estimates have been used in suicide research to evaluate the impact of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors, including affective disorders, traumatic life events, and unemployment. A parallel concept of preventive fraction (PF), allowing for estimation of the impact of protective factors and effectiveness…

  20. Characterizing uncertainty when evaluating risk management metrics: risk assessment modeling of Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ready-to-eat deli meats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Ebel, Eric D; Gallagher, Owen; Labarre, David; Williams, Michael S; Golden, Neal J; Pouillot, Régis; Dearfield, Kerry L; Kause, Janell

    2013-04-01

    This report illustrates how the uncertainty about food safety metrics may influence the selection of a performance objective (PO). To accomplish this goal, we developed a model concerning Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) deli meats. This application used a second order Monte Carlo model that simulates L. monocytogenes concentrations through a series of steps: the food-processing establishment, transport, retail, the consumer's home and consumption. The model accounted for growth inhibitor use, retail cross contamination, and applied an FAO/WHO dose response model for evaluating the probability of illness. An appropriate level of protection (ALOP) risk metric was selected as the average risk of illness per serving across all consumed servings-per-annum and the model was used to solve for the corresponding performance objective (PO) risk metric as the maximum allowable L. monocytogenes concentration (cfu/g) at the processing establishment where regulatory monitoring would occur. Given uncertainty about model inputs, an uncertainty distribution of the PO was estimated. Additionally, we considered how RTE deli meats contaminated at levels above the PO would be handled by the industry using three alternative approaches. Points on the PO distribution represent the probability that - if the industry complies with a particular PO - the resulting risk-per-serving is less than or equal to the target ALOP. For example, assuming (1) a target ALOP of -6.41 log10 risk of illness per serving, (2) industry concentrations above the PO that are re-distributed throughout the remaining concentration distribution and (3) no dose response uncertainty, establishment PO's of -4.98 and -4.39 log10 cfu/g would be required for 90% and 75% confidence that the target ALOP is met, respectively. The PO concentrations from this example scenario are more stringent than the current typical monitoring level of an absence in 25 g (i.e., -1.40 log10 cfu/g) or a stricter criteria of absence