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Sample records for risk evaluation methods

  1. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  2. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  3. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  4. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  5. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  6. Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

    1992-07-01

    In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as a three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described

  7. Use of the Immunegenetical Methods for Biological Risks Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozdnyakova, L.; Stopchanskaya, A.; Parkhomenko, N.; Pilipenko, N.; Kostyuchenko, L.; Djurtubaeva, G.; Slavina, N.; Pozdnyakov, S.

    2007-01-01

    For the present biological risk evaluation and forecast, information on gene-phenotypic characteristics of circulating regional EDAs, their connatural sources and conditions for epidemic distribution is necessary. We lead a relative gene-phenotypic comparison of vaccine and wild F.tularensis strains isolated from carriers, vectors, environment and patients in the different natural foci. Phenotyping investigations were done on 'in vitro' model with use of the human peripheral blood immune competent cells (ICC) of non-vaccinated and vaccinated with LVS volunteers. Variations of virulence manifestations of F.tularensis strains, isolated from different sources (ticks, waters, patients) are revealed. Principal differences in interactions of ICC with strains of various virulence degree, presence of ICC structural-functional changes in cytokines secretion dynamics at the presence of the wild and vaccine strains are shown. Morphological proofs for toxic materials production by pathogen during reproductive development term, damaging membranes structure, nucleus and cytoplasm are received. Certain interrelations between isolates phenotypic characteristics, source of isolation and types of natural foci is revealed. VNTR-analysis has showed genotypical heterogeneity and specific peculiarities in VNTR locuses combination of F. tularensis strains from different sources. Biological sense of VNTR-locuses combinations variations and their influence upon virulence signs expression are discussed. The complex approach, including agent's gene-phenotypic characteristics, ecological and geographical features of the natural foci, level of the human recruitment into the epidemic process will promote development of measures for counteraction in case of agents and their modified variants deliberate use. (author)

  8. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  9. Evaluation of Investment Risks in CBA with Monte Carlo Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Korytárová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are at the core of any development strategy. Economic growth and welfare depend on productive capital, infrastructure, human capital, knowledge, total factor productivity and the quality of institutions. Decision-making process on the selection of suitable projects in the public sector is in some aspects more difficult than in the private sector. Evaluating projects on the basis of their financial profitability, where the basic parameter is the value of the potential profit, can be misleading in these cases. One of the basic objectives of the allocation of public resources is respecting of the 3E principle (Economy, Effectiveness, Efficiency in their whole life cycle. The life cycle of the investment projects consists of four main phases. The first pre-investment phase is very important for decision-making process whether to accept or reject a public project for its realization. A well-designed feasibility study as well as cost-benefit analysis (CBA in this phase are important assumptions for future success of the project. A future financial and economical CF which represent the fundamental basis for calculation of economic effectiveness indicators are formed and modelled in these documents. This paper deals with the possibility to calculate the financial and economic efficiency of the public investment projects more accurately by simulation methods used.

  10. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  11. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  12. Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

    1997-01-01

    This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes

  13. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  14. Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed

  15. Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukutani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response

  16. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  17. Methods development to evaluate the risk of upgrading to DCS: The human factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrom, L.T.; Wilhelmsen, C.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The NRC recognizes that a more complete technical basis for understanding and regulating advanced digital technologies in commercial nuclear power plants is needed. A concern is that the introduction of digital safety systems may have an impact on risk. There is currently no standard methodology for measuring digital system reliability. A tool currently used to evaluate NPP risk in analog systems is the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The use of this tool to evaluate the digital system risk was considered to be a potential methodology for determining the risk. To test this hypothesis, it was decided to perform a limited PRA on a single dominant accident sequence. However, a review of existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods showed that they were inadequate to analyze systems utilizing digital technology. A four step process was used to adapt existing HRA methodologies to digital environments and to develop new techniques. The HRA methods were then used to analyze an NPP that had undergone a backfit to digital technology in order to determine, as a first step, whether the methods were effective. The very small-break loss of coolant accident sequence was analyzed to determine whether the upgrade to the Eagle-21 process protection system had an effect on risk. The analysis of the very small-break LOCA documented in the Sequoyah PRA was used as the basis of the analysis. The analysis of the results of the HRA showed that the mean human error probabilities for the Eagle-21 PPS were slightly less than those for the analog system it replaced. One important observation from the analysis is that the operators have increased confidence steming from the better level of control provided by the digital system. The analysis of the PRA results, which included the human error component and the Eagle-21 PPS, disclosed that the reactor protection system had a higher failure rate than the analog system, although the difference was not statistically significant.

  18. The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

    2018-03-01

    For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

  19. Safety evaluations by means of the method use of the risk matrix in radiotherapy treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, L.; Diaz, A.; Correa, T.; Gonzalez, Y.

    2014-08-01

    The quality of a radiotherapy treatment is linked to multidisciplinary factors that need to be taken into account in combined form whenever an evaluation of the safety is carried out. Knowing the accidents happened in this area, and to guarantee their prevention, the causes and sequences that could behave to them should be controlled, for what is necessary to make periodic evaluations of the same one. Our objective was to carry out the safety evaluation to the treatment process of a radiotherapy service and to identify the causes and consequences that can cause these accidental exposures, for patients, worker or people, from the equipment installation until the treatment completion. The method of Risk Matrices was used, by means the SEVRRA system carried out by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias of Mexico; this system allows to carry out a combined analysis of the occurrence frequency of the event initiator, the probability of human errors or barrier failures and the graveness of the consequences, facilitating the identification of the associated risk to the radiotherapy procedures. The method establishes priorities for the risk administration and identifies the main causes that could cause accidental exposures; also allows preventing the accidents occurrence using risk criterions that take into account the probability and magnitude of the potential exposures. This method, although does not allow to quantify numerically the risk, makes possible to classify it in levels, what is enough to establish priorities, without carrying out risks analysis but precise but more expensive. As a result we obtained that for the Co 60 77% of the treatments, is realized with low or half risk and 23% with high risk; the work load that is elevated in our case, intervenes directly in 46 initiators, in second and third place, the non realization of a portal image in the first treatment section and in the weekly continuation, as a consequences reducer, but these

  20. Risk Control Through the Use of Procedures - A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    Organizations use procedures to influence or control the behavior of their workers, but often have no basis for determining whether an additional rule, or procedural control will be beneficial. This paper outlines a proposed method for determining if the addition or removal of procedural controls will impact the occurrences of critical consequences. The proposed method focuses on two aspects: how valuable the procedural control is, based on the inevitability of the consequence and the opportunity to intervene; and how likely the control is to fail, based on five procedural design elements that address how well the rule or control has been Defined, Assigned, Trained, Organized and Monitored-referred to as the DATOM elements

  1. Centrality as a Method for the Evaluation of Semantic Resources for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otakar Čerba

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Clear and straightforward communication is a key aspect of all human activities related to crisis management. Since crisis management activities involve professionals from various disciplines using different terminology, clear and straightforward communication is difficult to achieve. Semantics as a broad science can help to overcome communication difficulties. This research focuses on the evaluation of available semantic resources including ontologies, thesauri, and controlled vocabularies for disaster risk reduction as part of crisis management. The main idea of the study is that the most appropriate source of broadly understandable terminology is such a semantic resource, which is accepted by—or at least connected to the majority of other resources. Important is not only the number of interconnected resources, but also the concrete position of the resource in the complex network of Linked Data resources. Although this is usually done by user experience, objective methods of resource semantic centrality can be applied. This can be described by centrality methods used mainly in graph theory. This article describes the calculation of four types of centrality methods (Outdegree, Indegree, Closeness, and Betweenness applied to 160 geographic concepts published as Linked Data and related to disaster risk reduction. Centralities were calculated for graph structures containing particular semantic resources as nodes and identity links as edges. The results show that (with some discussed exceptions the datasets with high values of centrality serve as important information resources, but they also include more concepts from preselected 160 geographic concepts. Therefore, they could be considered as the most suitable resources of terminology to make communication in the domain easier. The main research goal is to automate the semantic resources evaluation and to apply a well-known theoretical method (centrality to the semantic issues of Linked Data. It

  2. RISK EVALUATION OF PIN JIG WORK UNIT IN SHIPBUILDING BY USING FUZZY AHP METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Ozkok

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Shipbuilding industry includes many different industry branches in itself so various kind of work accidents occur. These work accidents often cause serious injuries and also deaths. It is a crucial thing to prevent or minimize these accidents. In order to reduce work accidents in shipyards, the most hazardous activities are needed to be determined and then, shipyard management must work on it in order to remove these hazard sources. In this study, pin jig work unit, where the curved parts are mounted on adjustable pin jigs, was considered. At first, the work activities and operations of pin jig work station were identified and they were classified as main and sub risk criterions. Then, pair comparison scales were built and these risk criterions were evaluated by experts who have been working for a shipyard located in Turkey. As a result of the evaluations of the experts, the risk weights of the activities carried out at pin jig work unit were defined by using fuzzy AHP method. Therefore, it is aimed for the shipyard management to take some precautions at pinjig work unit on the risky operations before failures happen.

  3. Evaluation of a chemical risk assessment method of South Korea for chemicals classified as carcinogenic, mutagenic or reprotoxic (CMR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Uk; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

    2017-12-12

    Chemicals were used in various fields by the development of industry and science and technology. The Chemical Hazard Risk Management (CHARM) was developed to assess the risk of chemicals in South Korea. In this study, we were to evaluate the CHARM model developed for the effective management of workplace chemicals. We used 59 carcinogenic, mutagenic or reprotoxic (CMR) materials, which are both the work environment measurement result and the usage information among the manufacturer data. The CHARM model determines the risk to human health using the exposure level (based on working environment measurements or a combination of the quantity used and chemical physical properties (e.g., fugacity and volatility)), hazard (using occupational exposure limit (OEL) or Risk phrases (R-phrases)/Hazard statements (H-statements) from the Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS)). The risk level was lower when using the results of the work environment measurement than when applying the chemical quantity and physical properties in the exposure level evaluation method. It was evaluated as grade 4 for the CMR material in the hazard class determination. The risk assessment method by R-phrases was evaluated more conservatively than the risk assessment method by OEL. And the risk assessment method by H-statements was evaluated more conservatively than the risk assessment method by R-phrases. The CHARM model was gradually conservatively assessed as it proceeded in the next step without quantitative information for individual workplaces. The CHARM is expected to help identify the risk if the hazards and exposure levels of chemicals were identified in individual workplaces. For CMR substances, although CHARM is highly evaluated for hazards, the risk is assessed to be low if exposure levels are assessed low. When evaluating the risk of highly hazardous chemicals such as CMR substances, we believe the model should be adapted to be more conservative and classify these as higher risk. This work is

  4. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  5. Using Statistical and Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate Health Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjing Wu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The toxic chemical and heavy metals within wastewater can cause serious adverse impacts on human health. Health risk assessment (HRA is an effective tool for supporting decision-making and corrective actions in water quality management. HRA can also help people understand the water quality and quantify the adverse effects of pollutants on human health. Due to the imprecision of data, measurement error and limited available information, uncertainty is inevitable in the HRA process. The purpose of this study is to integrate statistical and probabilistic methods to deal with censored and limited numbers of input data to improve the reliability of the non-cancer HRA of dermal contact exposure to contaminated river water by considering uncertainty. A case study in the Kelligrews River in St. John’s, Canada, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and capacity of the proposed approach. Five heavy metals were selected to evaluate the risk level, including arsenic, molybdenum, zinc, uranium and manganese. The results showed that the probability of the total hazard index of dermal exposure exceeding 1 is very low, and there is no obvious evidence of risk in the study area.

  6. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  7. Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

  8. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  9. Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-09-12

    Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  10. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  11. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  12. Simple probabilistic method for relative risk evaluation of nuclear terrorism events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Songbai; Wu Jun

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the event-tree and probability analysis methods, a probabilistic method of nuclear terrorism risk was built, and the risk of terrorism events was analyzed. With the statistical data for and hypothetical data for relative events, the relative probabilities of the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were obtained, as well as the relative risks of these four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were calculated by using this probabilistic method. The illustrated case show that the descending sequence of damages from the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events for single event is as following: nuclear explosive and improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and 'dirty bomb'. Under the hypothetical condition, the descending sequence of possibilities for the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events is as following: 'dirty bomb', nuclear facility attacked, improvised nuclear explosive and nuclear explosive, but the descending sequence of risks is as following: 'dirty bomb', improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and nuclear explosive . (authors)

  13. Evaluation of a novel risk assessment method for self-harm associated with Borderline Personality Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Sathya; Broadbear, Jillian H; Thompson, Katherine; Correia, Anna; Preston, Martin; Katz, Paul; Trett, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is associated with frequent self-harm and suicidal behaviours. This study compared physician-assessed self-harm risk and intervention choice according to a (i) standard risk assessment and (ii) BPD-specific risk assessment methods. Forty-five junior and senior mental health physicians were assigned to standard or BPD-specific risk training groups. The assessment utilized a BPD case vignette containing four scenarios describing high/low lethality self-harm and chronic/new patterns of self-harm behaviour. Participants chose from among four interventions, each corresponding to a risk category. Standard and BPD-specific groups were alike in their assessment of self-harm risk. Divergence occurred on intervention choice for assessments of low lethality, chronic risk ( pself harm-associated risk, BPD-specific training raised awareness of BPD-appropriate interventions, particularly in the context of chronic patterns of self-harm behaviour. Wider dissemination of BPD-specific risk training may enhance the confidence of mental health clinicians in identifying the nature of self-harm risk as well as the most clinically appropriate interventions for clients with BPD.

  14. A new cyber security risk evaluation method for oil and gas SCADA based on factor state space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Li; Cao, Xiedong; Li, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Based on comprehensive analysis of the structure and the potential safety problem of oil and gas SCADA(Supervisor control and data acquisition) network, aiming at the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods, combining factor state space and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a new network security risk evaluation method of oil and gas SCADA is proposed. First of all, formal description of factor state space and its complete mathematical definition were presented; secondly, factor fuzzy evaluation steps were discussed; then, using analytic hierarchy method, evaluation index system for oil and gas SCADA system was established, the index weights of all factors were determined by two-two comparisons; structure design of three layers in reasoning machine was completed. Experiments and tests show that the proposed method is accurate, reliable and practical. Research results provide the template and the new method for the other industries.

  15. Teleophthalmology for First Nations Clients at Risk of Diabetic Retinopathy: A Mixed Methods Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driver, D Dean

    2015-01-01

    Background Access to health services is a particular challenge for First Nations (aboriginal Canadians) communities living in remote or underserviced areas. Teleophthalmology can provide them with the same level of retinal screening services provided to those in urban centers. This screening can lead to the identification of high-risk individuals who can then be monitored and receive treatment related to their diabetes or other health issues. Objective The intent was to develop, implement, and evaluate a service delivery model for teleophthalmology screening and follow-up for at-risk and diabetic First Nations clients on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Methods A highly consultative, culturally appropriate, and collaborative approach was used to develop and deploy a teleophthalmology service delivery model to First Nations communities. This project was evaluated with regard to utilization and operational costs. Also, clinicians and team members involved in the teleophthalmology project provided assessments of the teleopthalmology quality, productivity, and access. Health providers in First Nations communities provided their perceptions of areas of improvement for the remote retinal screening services, areas where expansion of services could be offered, and opportunities to increase client education and health promotion. Results All 51 First Nations communities on Vancouver Island expressed interest in receiving teleopthalmology services. During the 1-year project, teleopthalmology clinics were held in 43 of 51 communities on Vancouver Island. During these clinics, 524 clients were screened and 140 of those clients were referred to a general ophthalmologist, family doctor, retinal specialist, optometrist, or other provider. Ratings of teleopthalmology system quality, information quality, service quality, and system usage were positive. Satisfaction with the teleopthalmology project was high among clinicians involved with the project. Satisfaction was also

  16. The Application of DEA Method in Evaluating Credit Risk of Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Feruś

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the present article is a new procedure forecasting credit risk of companies in Polish economy environment. What favors the suggested approach is the fact that in Poland, unlike in western countries, DEA method has not yet been implemented in order to assess credit risk that companies face. The research described in the article has been conducted on the basis of comparison of suggested DEA method with currently used procedures, namely point method, discriminative analysis and linear regression. Considering the research, it can be concluded that DEA method facilitates forecasting financial problems, including bankruptcy of companies in Polish economic conditions, and its effectiveness is comparable or even greater than approaches implemented so far.  

  17. Geostatistical methods for radiological evaluation and risk analysis of contaminated premises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desnoyers, Y.; Jeannee, N.; Chiles, J.P.; Dubot, D.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: At the end of process equipment dismantling, the complete decontamination of nuclear facilities requires the radiological assessment of residual activity levels of building structures. As stated by the IAEA, 'Segregation and characterization of contaminated materials are the key elements of waste minimization'. From this point of view, the set up of an appropriate evaluation methodology is of primordial importance. The radiological characterization of contaminated premises can be divided into three steps. First, the most exhaustive facility analysis provides historical, functional and qualitative information. Then, a systematic (exhaustive or not) control of the emergent signal is performed by means of in situ measurement methods such as surface control device combined with in situ gamma spectrometry. Besides, in order to assess the contamination depth, samples can be collected from boreholes at several locations within the premises and analyzed. Combined with historical information and emergent signal maps, such data improve and reinforce the preliminary waste zoning. In order to provide reliable estimates while avoiding supplementary investigation costs, there is therefore a crucial need for sampling optimization methods together with appropriate data processing techniques. The relevance of the geostatistical methodology relies on the presence of a spatial continuity for radiological contamination. In this case, geostatistics provides reliable methods for activity estimation, uncertainty quantification and risk analysis, which are essential decision-making tools for decommissioning and dismantling projects of nuclear installations. Besides, the ability of this geostatistical framework to provide answers to several key issues that generally occur during the clean-up preparation phase is discussed: How to optimise the investigation costs? How to deal with data quality issues? How to consistently take into account auxiliary information such as historical

  18. RFID Privacy Risk Evaluation Based on Synthetic Method of Extended Attack Tree and Information Feature Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Peng; Xu, Chao; Chen, Long; Wang, Ruchuan

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation of security risks in radio frequency identification (RFID) systems is a challenging problem in Internet of Things (IoT). This paper proposes an extended attack tree (EAT) model to identify RFID system’s flaws and vulnerabilities. A corresponding formal description of the model is described which adds a probability SAND node together with the probability attribute of the node attack. In addition, we model the process of an RFID data privacy attack based on EAT, taking a sensitive in...

  19. An evaluation of risk methods for prioritizing fire protection features: a procedure for fire barrier penetration seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, M.K.

    2004-01-01

    This paper generally evaluates risk methods available for prioritizing fire protection features. Risk methods involving both the use of qualitative insights, and quantitative results from a fire probabilistic risk analysis are reviewed. The applicability of these methods to develop a prioritized list of fire barrier penetration seals in a plant based on risk significance is presented as a procedure to illustrate the benefits of the methods. The paper concludes that current fire risk assessment methods can be confidently used to prioritize plant fire protection features, specifically fire barrier penetration seals. Simple prioritization schemes, using qualitative assessments and insights from fire PRA methodology may be implemented without the need for quantitative results. More elaborate prioritization schemes that allow further refinements to the categorization process may be implemented using the quantitative results of the screening processes in good fire PRAs. The use of the quantitative results from good fire PRAs provide several benefits for risk prioritization of fire protection features at plants, mainly from the plant systems analyses conducted for a fire PRA

  20. Current imaging methods for evaluation of metabolic risk in pediatric patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balev, B.; Lateva, M.; Popova, R.; Teneva, Ts.; Iotova, V.

    2013-01-01

    Full text: Introduction: The incidence of cardio - metabolic diseases increase in an increasingly early age is one of the challenges of the 21st century. This phenomenon is attributed largely of the obesity epidemic, it is particularly significant when the obesity occurs in childhood - obese children have a greater probability of developing cardiovascular disease and diabetes earlier. What you will learn: The significance of the obesity epidemic in childhood and metabolic risk increase; The compartment of adipose tissue and their role in maintaining metabolic balance and its breach; The importance of imaging methods in recent studies related to obesity and cardio - metabolic diseases in children; New imaging methods for proofing of pathological fat accumulation in other tissues and organs and their role in the study of metabolic disorders. Discussion: Various studies of pathology at obesity prove that obesity indicators are not sufficient for individualized assessment of cardio - metabolic risk. Only by imaging methods, information about the accumulated fat in metabolically more active visceral and ectopic adipose tissue depots has been obtained. The most common imaging techniques for analysis of body composition and adiposity in children - dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), ultrasound , computed tomography ( CT) scan , magnetic resonance imaging ( MRI), magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) will be presented. Conclusion: The imaging methods are widely used in the obesity and metabolic risk studies, as the trend is to be applied increasingly into practice. The results from Imaging studies affect not only to therapeutic approach, but also to the motivation of parents and patients to comply prescribed measures

  1. Evaluating high risks in large-scale projects using an extended VIKOR method under a fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ebrahimnejad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. This paper presents a new risk evaluation approach in order to rank the high risks in large-scale projects and improve the performance of these projects. It is based on the fuzzy set theory that is an effective tool to handle uncertainty. It is also based on an extended VIKOR method that is one of the well-known multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM methods. The proposed decision-making approach integrates knowledge and experience acquired from professional experts, since they perform the risk identification and also the subjective judgments of the performance rating for high risks in terms of conflicting criteria, including probability, impact, quickness of reaction toward risk, event measure quantity and event capability criteria. The most notable difference of the proposed VIKOR method with its traditional version is just the use of fuzzy decision-matrix data to calculate the ranking index without the need to ask the experts. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated with a real-case study in an Iranian power plant project, and the associated results are compared with two well-known decision-making methods under a fuzzy environment.

  2. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (1) Nuclear safety for accident scenario and measures for fault movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Chiba, Go; Okamoto, Koji; Kameda, Hiroyuki; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Yamazaki, Haruo; Konagai, Kazuo; Kamiya, Masanobu; Nagasawa, Kazuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Japan, as a frequent earthquake country, has a responsibility to resolve efficient measures to enhance nuclear safety, to continue utilizing the nuclear power, based on the risks and importance levels in the scientific and rational manner. In his paper describes how to evaluate the risk of faults movement by engineering approach. An open fruitful discussion by experts in the various area of earthquake, geology, geotechnical, civil, and a seismic design as well as other stakeholders such as academia professors, nuclear reactor engineers, regulators, and licensees. The Atomic Energy Society established an Investigation Committee on Development of Activity and Risk Evaluation Method for Faults by Engineering Approach (IC-DAREFEA) on October 1st, a 2014. The Investigation Committee utilizes the most advanced scientific and rational judgement, and continuous discussions and efforts in the global field, in order to collect and organize these knowledge and reflect the global standards and nuclear regulations, such as risk evaluation method for the faults movements and prevention of severe accidents, based on the accumulated database in the world, including Chuetsuoki Earthquake, North Nagano Earthquake and Kumamoto Earthquake. (author)

  3. Uncertainty Analysis and Overtopping Risk Evaluation of Maroon Dam withMonte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Vali Samani

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The greatest part of constructed dams belongs to embankment dams and there are many examples of their failures throughout history. About one-third of the world’s dam failures have been caused by flood overtopping, which indicates that flood overtopping is an important factor affecting reservoir projects’ safety. Moreover, because of a poor understanding of the randomness of floods, reservoir water levels during flood seasons are often lowered artificially in order to avoid overtopping and protect the lives and property of downstream residents. So, estimation of dam overtopping risk with regard to uncertainties is more important than achieving the dam’s safety. This study presents the procedure for risk evaluation of dam overtopping due to various uncertaintiess in inflows and reservoir initial condition. Materials and Methods: This study aims to present a practical approach and compare the different uncertainty analysis methods in the evaluation of dam overtopping risk due to flood. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation and Latin hypercube sampling methods were used to calculate the overtopping risk, evaluate the uncertainty, and calculate the highest water level during different flood events. To assess these methods from a practical point of view, the Maroon dam was chosen for the case study. Figure. 1 indicates the work procedure, including three parts: 1 Identification and evaluation of effective factors on flood routing and dam overtopping, 2 Data collection and analysis for reservoir routing and uncertainty analysis, 3 Uncertainty and risk analysis. Figure 1- Diagram of dam overtopping risk evaluation Results and Discussion: Figure 2 shows the results of the computed overtopping risks for the Maroon Dam without considering the wind effect, for the initial water level of 504 m as an example. As it is shown in Figure. 2, the trends of the risk curves computed by the different uncertainty analysis methods are similar

  4. The application of risk analysis methods for the evaluation of the KBS-II encapsulation plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olshausen, K.D.

    1981-01-01

    Following a short description of the process of risk analysis and a definition of the objective, the encapsulation plant is described to the extent required. For certain systems, e.g. ventilation, the data was insufficient and some assumptions had to be made. A number of critical events were identified, and one of these, the release of radioactive substances through the ventilation system, was chosen for more detailed analysis. The plant was regarded as a system of barriers to which the substance had to be transported (TO), and through which the substance had to penetrate (THROUGH). The procedure is therefore called the TO/THROUGH method. Detailed fault trees with 'release via ventilation' as the critical event (top event) were drawn. As a numerical example two initiating events from the KBS-II report were treated; 1. degassing of previously damaged pins (2 per year); 2. fall of a fully loaded rack (1 per year). If either of these events coincides with failure of the ventilation system radioactive dust (aerosol) can be released to the atmosphere. The probability for this and the amount of radioactivity released are estimated. (JIW)

  5. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  6. Nano-Evaluris: an inhalation and explosion risk evaluation method for nanoparticle use. Part I: description of the methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillard, Jacques X.; Vignes, Alexis

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, an inhalation health and explosion safety risk assessment methodology for nanopowders is described. Since toxicological threshold limit values are still unknown for nanosized substances, detailed risk assessment on specific plants may not be carried out. A simple approach based on occupational hazard/exposure band expressed in mass concentrations is proposed for nanopowders. This approach is consolidated with an iso surface toxicological scaling method, which has the merit, although incomplete, to provide concentration threshold levels for which new metrological instruments should be developed for proper air monitoring in order to ensure safety. Whenever the processing or use of nanomaterials is introducing a risk to the worker, a specific nano pictogram is proposed to inform the worker. Examples of risk assessment of process equipment (i.e., containment valves) processing various nanomaterials are provided. Explosion risks related to very reactive nanomaterials such as aluminum nanopowders can be assessed using this new analysis methodology adapted to nanopowders. It is nevertheless found that to formalize and extend this approach, it is absolutely necessary to develop new relevant standard apparatuses and to qualify individual and collective safety barriers with respect to health and explosion risks. In spite of these uncertainties, it appears, as shown in the second paper (Part II) that health and explosion risks, evaluated for given MWCNTs and aluminum nanoparticles, remain manageable in their continuous fabrication mode, considering current individual and collective safety barriers that can be put in place. The authors would, however, underline that peculiar attention must be paid to non-continuous modes of operations, such as process equipment cleaning steps, that are often under-analyzed and are too often forgotten critical steps needing vigilance in order to minimize potential toxic and explosion risks.

  7. An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Ching Y. Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

  8. A modified risk evaluation method of slope failure in a heavy rain. For application to slopes in widespread area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suenaga, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Shiro; Kobayakawa, Hiroaki

    2015-01-01

    A risk evaluation method of slope failure has developed to combine gas-liquid two phase flow analysis as a rainfall infiltration analysis and elastic-plastic finite element analysis as a slope stability analysis and has applied to a slope field. This method, however, had a difficulty to apply to many slopes since it needed many parameters to calculate the risk of the slope failure. The method was simplified to lessen input parameters which included an inclination and length of a slope, a depth of bedrock and a rainfall pattern assuming that hydraulic properties and mechanical properties were similar for the same geological unit. The method was also modified to represent a water collection structure, a surface runoff, an existence of a forest road and a water level variation of a downward river / pond which could affect infiltration phenomena. Results of the simplification and the modification made it possible to enhance a prediction precision of the method and create a hazard map of slopes in widespread area. (author)

  9. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Lappa, D.A.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Chuang, T.Y.; Johnson, J.J.; Campbell, R.D.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Maslenikov, O.R.; Tiong, L.W.; Ravindra, M.K.; Kincaid, R.H.; Sues, R.H.; Putcha, C.S.

    1993-11-01

    This report describes the methodology used and the results obtained from the application of a simplified seismic risk methodology to the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2. This study is part of the Level I analysis being performed by the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP). Using the RMIEP developed event and fault trees, the analysis resulted in a seismically induced core damage frequency point estimate of 6.OE-7/yr. This result, combined with the component importance analysis, indicated that system failures were dominated by random events. The dominant components included diesel generator failures (failure to swing, failure to start, failure to run after started), and condensate storage tank

  10. A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

    2012-06-01

    Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. HARAS. A new method for risk evaluation of working with open radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klaver, T.

    1998-01-01

    Thumbs of rule with respect to the characteristics and the handling of, and protection facilities for radioactive materials in laboratories are used by everybody involved in radiation protection activities. However, the thumbs of rule must be based on a thorough risk analysis. The so-called HARAS study provides the results of such an analysis, consisting of recommendations to alter the government policy with respect to radionuclide laboratories. HARAS is a Dutch abbreviation for handling of radioactive materials

  12. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  14. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  15. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

    2018-04-13

    Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  16. Overview of toxicity data and risk assessment methods for evaluating the chemical effects of depleted uranium compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, H.M.; Monette, F.A.; Avci, H.I.

    2000-01-01

    In the United States, depleted uranium is handled or used in several chemical forms by both governmental agencies and private industry (primarily companies producing and machining depleted uranium metal for military applications). Human exposure can occur as a result of handling these compounds, routine low-level effluent releases to the environment from processing facilities, or materials being accidentally released from storage locations or during processing or transportation. Exposure to uranium can result in both chemical and radiological toxicity, but in most instances chemical toxicity is of greater concern. This article discusses the chemical toxic effects from human exposure to depleted uranium compounds that are likely to be handled during the long-term management and use of depleted uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) inventories in the United States. It also reviews representative publications in the toxicological literature to establish appropriate reference values for risk assessments. Methods are described for evaluating chemical toxicity caused by chronic low-level exposure and acute exposure. Example risk evaluations are provided for illustration. Preliminary results indicate that chemical effects of chronic exposure to uranium compounds under normal operating conditions would be negligibly small. Results also show that acute exposures under certain accident conditions could cause adverse chemical effects among the populations exposed.

  17. Risk evaluation method for faults by engineering approach. (2) Application concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, Masanobu; Kanaida, Syuuji; Kamiya, Kouichi; Sato, Kunihiko; Kuroiwa, Katsuya

    2016-01-01

    The influence of the fault displacement on the facility should to be evaluated not only by the activity of the fault but also by obtaining risk information by considering scenarios including such as the frequency and the degree of the hazard, which should be an appropriate approach for nuclear safety. An applicable concept of margin analysis utilizing accident sequences for evaluating the influence of the fault displacement is proposed. By use of this analysis, we can evaluate of the safety functions and margin for core damage, verify the efficiency of equipment of portable type and make a decision to take additional measures to reduce the risk by using obtained risk information. (author)

  18. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  19. Efficient improvement of nuclear power plant safety by reorganization of risk-informed safety importance evaluation methods for piping welded portions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Irie, Takashi; Hanafusa, Hidemitsu; Suyama, Takeshi [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Morota, Hidetsugu; Kojima, Sigeo; Mizuno, Yoshinobu [Computer Software Development Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    In this work, risk information was used to evaluate the safety importance of piping welded portions which were important for plant operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants. There are two types of risk-informed safety importance evaluation methods, namely the ASME method and the EPRI method. Since both methods have advantages and disadvantages, elements of each method were combined and reorganized. Considerations included whether the degradation mechanisms would be objectively evaluated and whether plant safety would be efficiently improved. The most objective and efficient method was as follows. Piping failure potential is quantitatively and objectively evaluated for failure with probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and for other degradation mechanisms with empirical failure rates, and conditional core damage probability (CCDP) is calculated with PSA. This method reduces the inspected segment numbers to 1/4 of the deterministic method and increases the ratio of risk, which is covered by the inspected segments, to total risk from 80% of the deterministic method to 95%. Piping inspection numbers decreased for safety injection systems that were required the inspections by the deterministic method. Piping inspections were required for part of main feed water and main steam systems that were not required the inspections by the deterministic method. (author)

  20. Skin sensitisation: the Colipa strategy for developing and evaluating non-animal test methods for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Gavin; Aeby, Pierre; Ashikaga, Takao; Bessou-Touya, Sandrine; Diembeck, Walter; Gerberick, Frank; Kern, Petra; Marrec-Fairley, Monique; Ovigne, Jean-Marc; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Schroeder, Klaus; Tailhardat, Magali; Teissier, Silvia; Winkler, Petra

    2011-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis is a delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction induced by small reactive chemicals (haptens). Currently, the sensitising potential and potency of new chemicals is usually characterised using data generated via animal studies, such as the local lymph node assay (LLNA). There are, however, increasing public and political concerns regarding the use of animals for the testing of new chemicals. Consequently, the development of in vitro, in chemico or in silico models for predicting the sensitising potential and/or potency of new chemicals is receiving widespread interest. The Colipa Skin Tolerance task force currently collaborates with and/or funds several academic research groups to expand our understanding of the molecular and cellular events occurring during the acquisition of skin sensitisation. Knowledge gained from this research is being used to support the development and evaluation of novel alternative approaches for the identification and characterisation of skin sensitizing chemicals. At present three non-animal test methods (Direct Peptide Reactivity Assay (DPRA), Myeloid U937 Skin Sensitisation Test (MUSST) and human Cell Line Activation Test (hCLAT)) have been evaluated in Colipa interlaboratory ring trials for their potential to predict skin sensitisation potential and were recently submitted to ECVAM for formal pre-validation. Data from all three test methods will now be used to support the study and development of testing strategy approaches for skin sensitiser potency prediction. This publication represents the current viewpoint of the cosmetics industry on the feasibility of replacing the need for animal test data for informing skin sensitisation risk assessment decisions.

  1. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Recovery actions in PRA [probabilistic risk assessment] for the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP): Volume 1, Development of the data-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weston, L.M.; Whitehead, D.W.; Graves, N.L.

    1987-06-01

    In a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for a nuclear power plant, the analyst identifies a set of potential core damage events consisting of equipment failures and human errors and their estimated probabilities of occurrence. If operator recovery from an event within some specified time is considered, then the probability of this recovery can be included in the PRA. This report provides PRA analysts with an improved methodology for including recovery actions in a PRA. A recovery action can be divided into two distinct phases: a Diagnosis Phase (realizing that there is a problem with a critical parameter and deciding upon the correct course of action) and an Action Phase (physically accomplishing the required action). In this methodology, simulator data are used to estimate recovery probabilities for the diagnosis phase. Different time-reliability curves showing the probability of failure of diagnosis as a function of time from the compelling cue for the event are presented. These curves are based on simulator exercises, and the actions are grouped based upon their operational similarities. This is an improvement over existing diagnosis models that rely greatly upon subjective judgment to obtain such estimates. The action phase is modeled using estimates from available sources. The methodology also includes a recommendation on where and when to apply the recovery action in the PRA process

  3. Farm-level risk factors for Fasciola hepatica infection in Danish dairy cattle as evaluated by two diagnostic methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takeuchi-Storm, Nao; Denwood, Matthew; Hansen, Tina Vicky Alstrup

    2017-01-01

    ) as a tool for diagnosis in Danish dairy cattle farms was assessed. This case-control study aimed to identify farm-level risk factors for fasciolosis in Danish dairy farms (> 50 animals slaughtered in 2013) using two diagnostic methods: recordings of liver condemnation at slaughter, and farm-level Fasciola...

  4. Practical Methods for Information Security Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian AMANCEI

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some directions to perform the risk man-agement for information security. The article follows to practical methods through question-naire that asses the internal control, and through evaluation based on existing controls as part of vulnerability assessment. The methods presented contains all the key elements that concurs in risk management, through the elements proposed for evaluation questionnaire, list of threats, resource classification and evaluation, correlation between risks and controls and residual risk computation.

  5. Methodology implementation in order to evaluate the biological risks in the Centre for Research and Rehabilitation of Hereditary Ataxias of Cuba: a biosecurity surveillance method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dailín Cobos Valdes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Center for Research and Rehabilitation of Hereditary Ataxias faces biological risks. Nevertheless a Biosafety system was not yet implemented. Objective: To apply the methodology in order to evaluate these risks Materials and Methods: Interview with the researchers of the center and the use of the methodology for evaluating biological risks designed for Cobos, 2009. Results: Fifty-three biological risks were identified and evaluated, 32 as moderated, 18 as tolerable and 3 as trivial. Such classification are crucial to establish its management priorities and represent a way of surveillance in Biosafety field. Conclusion: The results of this research represent an essential factor for the Biosafety documentation development adapted to the Center and according to the legal basis in terms of biological safety in Cuba.

  6. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  7. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  8. Farm-level risk factors for Fasciola hepatica infection in Danish dairy cattle as evaluated by two diagnostic methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takeuchi-Storm, Nao; Denwood, Matthew; Hansen, Tina Vicky Alstrup

    2017-01-01

    ) as a tool for diagnosis in Danish dairy cattle farms was assessed. This case-control study aimed to identify farm-level risk factors for fasciolosis in Danish dairy farms (> 50 animals slaughtered in 2013) using two diagnostic methods: recordings of liver condemnation at slaughter, and farm-level Fasciola...... on wet pastures, dry cows grazing on wet pastures, herd size, breed and concurrent beef cattle production were identified as risk factors associated with being classified as a case farm. With the categorised BTM ELISA result as the response variable, heifers grazing on wet pastures, dry cows grazing...... on wet pastures, and purchase of cows were identified as risk factors. Within the case and control groups, 74.8 and 12.7% of farms were positive for fasciolosis on BTM ELISA, respectively. The differences are likely to be related to the detection limit of the farm-level prevalence by the BTM ELISA test...

  9. The Application of VaR Method to Risk Evaluation of Bank Loans%VaR方法在银行贷款风险评估中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹新月

    2005-01-01

    Value-at-Risk model developed recently is a mathemetical medol to measure and monitor market risk. The article focuses on discussing calculate procedure and calculate method about applying VaR means for the bank loan risk in evaluation, we make clear differentiate both the Bank for International Settlements draw credit risk reserve and VaR means calculate bank loan risk value, find VaR means in application practicality value and extensity perspective in our bank loan risk for evaluation

  10. Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method The Investment Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises in The Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanyu; Chai, Huaqi; Huang, Yimiao

    2018-01-01

    “Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” held in Beijing in May this year. once again, “The Belt and Road” strategic initiative to the world, causing the world’s enthusiastic response. The core of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy initiative is to promote infrastructure construction and interconnection, dock national policies and development strategies, deepen pragmatic cooperation, promote coordinated and coordinated development and achieve common prosperity. With the “The Belt and Road” strategy in-depth, Chinese enterprises will go abroad, in the countries along the country to invest in more and more examples, accompanied by the increasing risk. Analysis of the failure of investment cases, we can easily find that this is the majority of enterprises overseas investment in the lack of careful assessment of risk and risk of foreign investment risk management has a great relationship. In this paper, the risk factors are used to identify the risk factors table, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the comprehensive risk value of many uncertain factors that cannot be determined by the overseas investment. The risk assessment system is constructed to help Chinese enterprises to follow the " Investment to avoid risks, improve the success rate.

  11. Methods of Financial Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korzh Natalia

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The essence and nature of financial risks are investigated. Their classification is conducted. The features of financial risk management and the main methods of management are considered. The ways of risk compensation are identified. It is proved that the objective external risk basis is such market imperfections as externalities of enterprises and incomplete information about the operation of the business environment and internal objective basis risk – the objective function to maximise profits in a competitive environment. It is revealed that to compensate market imperfections business entities should develop a strategy that combines fill in missing information and neutralise or minimise externalities that tactically implemented in financial risk management programs.

  12. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant, Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrell, W.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.; Daniel, S.L.

    1992-10-01

    This report is a description of the internal flood analysis performed on the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 2. A more detailed integration with the internal events analysis than in prior flood risk assessments was accomplished. The same system fault trees used for the internal events analysis were also used for the flood analysis, which included modeling of components down to the contact pair level. Subsidiary equations were created to map the effects of pipe failures. All component locations were traced and mapped into the fault trees. The effects of floods were then mapped directly onto the internal plant model and their relative importance was evaluated. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that most plant areas had a negligible contribution to the flood-induced core damage frequency. This was influenced strongly by the fact that the LaSalle plant was designed with a high level of concern about the effects of external events such as fire and flood and significant separation was maintained between systems in the original design. Detailed analysis of the remaining flood scenarios identified only two that contributed significantly to risk. The flood analysis resulted in a total (mean) core damage frequency of 3.23E-6 per year

  13. Farm-level risk factors for Fasciola hepatica infection in Danish dairy cattle as evaluated by two diagnostic methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nao Takeuchi-Storm

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of bovine fasciolosis in Denmark is increasing but appropriate guidelines for control are currently lacking. In order to help develop a control strategy for liver fluke, a risk factor study of farm management factors was conducted and the utility of bulk tank milk (BTM ELISA as a tool for diagnosis in Danish dairy cattle farms was assessed. Methods This case-control study aimed to identify farm-level risk factors for fasciolosis in Danish dairy farms (> 50 animals slaughtered in 2013 using two diagnostic methods: recordings of liver condemnation at slaughter, and farm-level Fasciola hepatica antibody levels in BTM. A case farm was defined as having a minimum of 3 incidents of liver condemnation due to liver fluke at slaughter (in any age group during 2013, and control farms were located within 10 km of at least one case farm and had no history of liver condemnation due to liver fluke during 2011–2013. The selected farmers were interviewed over telephone about grazing and control practices, and BTM from these farms was collected and analysed by ELISA in 2014. The final complete dataset consisting of 131 case and 63 control farms was analysed using logistic regression. Results Heifers grazing on wet pastures, dry cows grazing on wet pastures, herd size, breed and concurrent beef cattle production were identified as risk factors associated with being classified as a case farm. With the categorised BTM ELISA result as the response variable, heifers grazing on wet pastures, dry cows grazing on wet pastures, and purchase of cows were identified as risk factors. Within the case and control groups, 74.8 and 12.7% of farms were positive for fasciolosis on BTM ELISA, respectively. The differences are likely to be related to the detection limit of the farm-level prevalence by the BTM ELISA test, time span between slaughter data and BTM, and the relatively low sensitivity of liver inspection at slaughter. Conclusions

  14. TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lah, J [Myongji Hospital, Goyang-si (Korea, Republic of); Manger, R; Kim, G [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinary team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.

  15. TU-FG-201-11: Evaluating the Validity of Prospective Risk Analysis Methods: A Comparison of Traditional FMEA and Modified Healthcare FMEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lah, J; Manger, R; Kim, G

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the ability of traditional Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and a light version of Healthcare FMEA (HFMEA), called Scenario analysis of FMEA (SAFER) by comparing their outputs in terms of the risks identified and their severity rankings. Methods: We applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation are based on risk priority number (RPN). RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity and detectability. The SAFER approach; utilized two indices-frequency and severity-which were defined by a multidisciplinary team. A criticality matrix was divided into 4 categories; very low, low, high and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. Results: Two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks were matching or not. Our results showed an agreement of 67% between FMEA and SAFER approaches for the 15 riskiest SIG-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the failure modes (No.52, 54, 154) that have high SAFER scores do not necessarily have high FMEA RPN scores. In our results, there were additional risks identified by both methods with little correspondence. In the SAFER, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established decision tree or the failure mode should be more investigated. Conclusion: The FMEA method takes into account the probability that an error passes without being detected. SAFER is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allow the prioritization of risks and mitigation measures, and thus is perfectly applicable to clinical parts of radiotherapy.

  16. Method for evaluation of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors based on past reactor experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Cuesta, M.; Okrent, D.

    1985-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for quantification of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors in nuclear power plants, based on information available on errors discovered in the past. For the purposes of this paper, an error is defined as any event that causes the seismic safety margins of a nuclear power plant to be smaller than implied by current regulatory requirements and industry common practice. Also, the actual reduction in the safety margins caused by the error will be called a deficiency. The method is based on a theoretical model of errors, called a deficiency logic diagram. First, an ultimate cause is present. This ultimate cause is consumated as a specific instance, called originating error. As originating errors may occur in actions to be applied a number of times, a deficiency generation system may be involved. Quality assurance activities will hopefully identify most of these deficiencies, requesting their disposition. However, the quality assurance program is not perfect and some operating plant deficiencies may persist, causing different levels of impact to the plant logic. The paper provides a way of extrapolating information about errors discovered in plants under construction in order to assess the risk due to errors that have not been discovered

  17. Farm-level risk factors for Fasciola hepatica infection in Danish dairy cattle as evaluated by two diagnostic methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi-Storm, Nao; Denwood, Matthew; Hansen, Tina Vicky Alstrup; Halasa, Tariq; Rattenborg, Erik; Boes, Jaap; Enemark, Heidi Larsen; Thamsborg, Stig Milan

    2017-11-09

    The prevalence of bovine fasciolosis in Denmark is increasing but appropriate guidelines for control are currently lacking. In order to help develop a control strategy for liver fluke, a risk factor study of farm management factors was conducted and the utility of bulk tank milk (BTM ELISA) as a tool for diagnosis in Danish dairy cattle farms was assessed. This case-control study aimed to identify farm-level risk factors for fasciolosis in Danish dairy farms (> 50 animals slaughtered in 2013) using two diagnostic methods: recordings of liver condemnation at slaughter, and farm-level Fasciola hepatica antibody levels in BTM. A case farm was defined as having a minimum of 3 incidents of liver condemnation due to liver fluke at slaughter (in any age group) during 2013, and control farms were located within 10 km of at least one case farm and had no history of liver condemnation due to liver fluke during 2011-2013. The selected farmers were interviewed over telephone about grazing and control practices, and BTM from these farms was collected and analysed by ELISA in 2014. The final complete dataset consisting of 131 case and 63 control farms was analysed using logistic regression. Heifers grazing on wet pastures, dry cows grazing on wet pastures, herd size, breed and concurrent beef cattle production were identified as risk factors associated with being classified as a case farm. With the categorised BTM ELISA result as the response variable, heifers grazing on wet pastures, dry cows grazing on wet pastures, and purchase of cows were identified as risk factors. Within the case and control groups, 74.8 and 12.7% of farms were positive for fasciolosis on BTM ELISA, respectively. The differences are likely to be related to the detection limit of the farm-level prevalence by the BTM ELISA test, time span between slaughter data and BTM, and the relatively low sensitivity of liver inspection at slaughter. Control of bovine fasciolosis in Denmark should target heifers and

  18. Development of methods for the evaluation and reduction of risk factors for the maintenance of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preuss, W.; Ogurek, K.H.

    1988-01-01

    The maintenance of a nuclear power plant is an essential requirement for its safe operation. Recent experience has however revealed increasingly more deviations and disturbances associated with maintenance work - in particular related to human error. The investigations should contribute to the further improvement of the conditions for safe and optimal maintenance procedures and thus minimize the risk of disturbances arising from them. The first step of the investigation is presented here, in which the methodological preliminary work was carried out and a suitable procedure developed. A basis was provided by means of extensive literature research and analysis. Additional information was obtained through discussions with experts (research workers as well as plant operational management). In particular suitable techniques of investigation and analysis are presented in detail, the problem structure of the field of investigation bas been worked out, and a methodology for the evaluation of data has been developed. Furthermore criteria have been formulated with which nuclear power plants and maintenance processes can be choosen for an economic way of investigation, and a procedure is presented which serves the investigator to check and to improve the methodology. Finally, proposals for further investigations are given. (orig.) [de

  19. Expedited CT-Based Methods for Evaluating Fracture Severity to Assess Risk of Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis After Articular Fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Donald D; Kilburg, Anthony T; Thomas, Thaddeus P; Marsh, J Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) is common after intra-articular fractures of the tibial plafond. An objective CT-based measure of fracture severity was previously found to reliably predict whether PTOA developed following surgical treatment of such fractures. However, the extended time required obtaining the fracture energy metric and its reliance upon an intact contralateral limb CT limited its clinical applicability. The objective of this study was to establish an expedited fracture severity metric that provided comparable PTOA predictive ability without the prior limitations. An expedited fracture severity metric was computed from the CT scans of 30 tibial plafond fractures using textural analysis to quantify disorder in CT images. The expedited method utilized an intact surrogate model to enable severity assessment without requiring a contralateral limb CT. Agreement between the expedited fracture severity metric and the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) radiographic OA score at two-year follow-up was assessed using concordance. The ability of the metric to differentiate between patients that did or did not develop PTOA was assessed using the Wilcoxon Ranked Sum test. The expedited severity metric agreed well (75.2% concordance) with the KL scores. The initial fracture severity of cases that developed PTOA differed significantly (p = 0.004) from those that did not. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the expedited severity metric could accurately predict PTOA outcome in 80% of the cases. The time required to obtain the expedited severity metric averaged 14.9 minutes/ case, and the metric was obtained without using an intact contralateral CT. The expedited CT-based methods for fracture severity assessment present a solution to issues limiting the utility of prior methods. In a relatively short amount of time, the expedited methodology provided a severity score capable of predicting PTOA risk, without needing to have the intact contralateral limb

  20. The risk-benefit task of research ethics committees: An evaluation of current approaches and the need to incorporate decision studies methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernabe Rosemarie D L C

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research ethics committees (RECs are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a trial. Currently, two procedure-level approaches are predominant, the Net Risk Test and the Component Analysis. Discussion By looking at decision studies, we see that both procedure-level approaches conflate the various risk-benefit tasks, i.e., risk-benefit assessment, risk-benefit evaluation, risk treatment, and decision making. This conflation makes the RECs’ risk-benefit task confusing, if not impossible. We further realize that RECs are not meant to do all the risk-benefit tasks; instead, RECs are meant to evaluate risks and benefits, appraise risk treatment suggestions, and make the final decision. Conclusion As such, research ethics would benefit from looking beyond the procedure-level approaches and allowing disciplines like decision studies to be involved in the discourse on RECs’ risk-benefit task.

  1. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Risk management method for small photovoltaic plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirova Milena

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is necessary for achieving the goals of the organization. There are many methods, approaches, and instruments in the literature concerning risk management. However, these are often highly specialized and transferring them to a different field can prove difficult. Therefore, managers often face situations where they have no tools to use for risk management. This is the case with small photovoltaic plants (according to a definition by the Bulgarian State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission small applies to systems with a total installed power of 200 kWp. There are some good practices in the energy field for minimizing risks, but they offer only partial risk prevention and are not sufficient. Therefore a new risk management method needs to be introduced. Small photovoltaic plants offer plenty of advantages in comparison to the other renewable energy sources which makes risk management in their case more important. There is no classification of risks for the exploitation of small photovoltaic systems in the available literature as well as to what degree the damages from those risks could spread. This makes risk analysis and evaluation necessary for obtaining information which could aid taking decisions for improving risk management. The owner of the invested capital takes a decision regarding the degree of acceptable risk for his organization and it must be protected depending on the goals set. Investors in small photovoltaic systems need to decide to what degree the existing risks can influence the goals previously set, the payback of the investment, and what is the acceptable level of damages for the investor. The purpose of this work is to present a risk management method, which currently does not exist in the Bulgaria, so that the risks and the damages that could occur during the exploitation of small photovoltaic plants could be identified and the investment in such technology – justified.

  3. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  4. Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2014-08-15

    Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Rick; Smith, Alex; Connors, Mary; Wojciech, Jack; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in

  6. Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

    2018-06-01

    China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

  7. Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR): evaluation of a novel method to compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, V A; van Smeden, M; Postma, D F; Oosterheert, J J; Bonten, M J M; van Werkhoven, C H

    2017-12-01

    The Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR) statistic was proposed to improve the efficiency of trials comparing antibiotic stewardship strategies to optimize antibiotic use. We studied the behaviour of RADAR in a non-inferiority trial in which a β-lactam monotherapy strategy (n = 656) was non-inferior to fluoroquinolone monotherapy (n = 888) for patients with moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. Patients were ranked according to clinical outcome, using five or eight categories, and antibiotic use. RADAR was calculated as the probability that the β-lactam group had a more favourable ranking than the fluoroquinolone group. To investigate the sensitivity of RADAR to detrimental clinical outcome we simulated increasing rates of 90-day mortality in the β-lactam group and performed the RADAR and non-inferiority analysis. The RADAR of the β-lactam group compared with the fluoroquinolone group was 60.3% (95% CI 57.9%-62.7%) using five and 58.4% (95% CI 56.0%-60.9%) using eight clinical outcome categories, all in favour of β-lactam. Sample sizes for RADAR were 38% (250/653) and 89% (580/653) of the non-inferiority sample size calculation, using five or eight clinical outcome categories, respectively. With simulated mortality rates, loss of non-inferiority of the β-lactam group occurred at a relative risk of 1.125 in the conventional analysis, whereas using RADAR the β-lactam group lost superiority at a relative risk of mortality of 1.25 and 1.5, with eight and five clinical outcome categories, respectively. RADAR favoured β-lactam over fluoroquinolone therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Although RADAR required fewer patients than conventional non-inferiority analysis, the statistic was less sensitive to detrimental outcomes. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Improved method for P and T strategy selection by long-term risk evaluation of nuclear energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csom, G.; Feher, S.; Szieberth, M.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents a detailed introduction of the presently used indicators of long-term risk, namely various concepts of radiotoxicity, analyses their advantages and disadvantages, and proposes further indicators called residual hazard and residual hazard index. In order to illustrate them, the time behavior of the relative radiotoxicity and the residual hazard index is investigated for a few representative cases. In the first one, conventional thermal and fast reactors, while in the second one molten salt reactors are investigated from the viewpoint of transmutation. The results shown indicate the usefulness of the application of the now proposed quantities. (author)

  9. Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, A.C. Jr.; Eide, S.A.; LaChance, J.C.; Whitehead, D.W.

    1992-10-01

    This volume presents the results of the initiating event and accident sequence delineation analyses of the LaSalle Unit II nuclear power plant performed as part of the Level III PRA being performed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The initiating event identification included a thorough review of extant data and a detailed plant specific search for special initiators. For the LaSalle analysis, the following initiating events were defined: eight general transients, ten special initiators, four LOCAs inside containment, one LOCA outside containment, and two interfacing LOCAs. Three accident sequence event trees were constructed: LOCA, transient, and ATWS. These trees were general in nature so that a tree represented all initiators of a particular type (i.e., the LOCA tree was constructed for evaluating small, medium, and large LOCAs simultaneously). The effects of the specific initiators on the systems and the different success criteria were handled by including the initiating events directly in the system fault trees. The accident sequence event trees were extended to include the evaluation of containment vulnerable sequences. These internal event accident sequence event trees were also used for the evaluation of the seismic, fire, and flood analyses

  10. Nuclear data evaluation method and evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tingjin

    1995-01-01

    The evaluation methods and Nuclear Data Evaluation System have been developed in China. A new version of the system has been established on Micro-VAX2 computer, which is supported by IAEA under the technology assistance program. The flow chart of Chinese Nuclear Data Evaluation System is shown out. For last ten years, the main efforts have been put on the double differential cross section, covariance data and evaluated data library validation. The developed evaluation method and Chinese Nuclear Data Evaluation System have been widely used at CNDC and in Chinese Nuclear Data Network for CENDL. (1 tab., 15 figs.)

  11. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  12. Functional remediation components: A conceptual method of evaluating the effects of remediation on risks to ecological receptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Governmental agencies, regulators, health professionals, tribal leaders, and the public are faced with understanding and evaluating the effects of cleanup activities on species, populations, and ecosystems. While engineers and managers understand the processes involved in different remediation types such as capping, pump and treat, and natural attenuation, there is often a disconnect between (1) how ecologists view the influence of different types of remediation, (2) how the public perceives them, and (3) how engineers understand them. The overall goal of the present investigation was to define the components of remediation types (= functional remediation). Objectives were to (1) define and describe functional components of remediation, regardless of the remediation type, (2) provide examples of each functional remediation component, and (3) explore potential effects of functional remediation components in the post-cleanup phase that may involve continued monitoring and assessment. Functional remediation components include types, numbers, and intensity of people, trucks, heavy equipment, pipes, and drill holes, among others. Several components may be involved in each remediation type, and each results in ecological effects, ranging from trampling of plants, to spreading invasive species, to disturbing rare species, and to creating fragmented habitats. In some cases remediation may exert a greater effect on ecological receptors than leaving the limited contamination in place. A goal of this conceptualization is to break down functional components of remediation such that managers, regulators, and the public might assess the effects of timing, extent, and duration of different remediation options on ecological systems.

  13. Studies report: methods for the evaluation and the prevention of accidental risks (DRA 35 - report Ω 11). Knowledge of solid fuels self-heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-02-01

    The aim of this document is to present a synthesis of the knowledge on risks bond to auto-heating phenomena which occur in solid fuels storage. It analyzes the role of some factors on the heating, and more specially the mass, temperature, oxygen content of the atmosphere and humidity. It presents a general methodology of risks evaluation and measures on the risks detection and prevention. (A.L.B.)

  14. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  15. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  16. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

  17. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  18. Voltammetry Method Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoyt, N. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pereira, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Willit, J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Williamson, M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-07-29

    The purpose of the ANL MPACT Voltammetry project is to evaluate the suitability of previously developed cyclic voltammetry techniques to provide electroanalytical measurements of actinide concentrations in realistic used fuel processing scenarios. The molten salts in these scenarios are very challenging as they include high concentrations of multiple electrochemically active species, thereby creating a variety of complications. Some of the problems that arise therein include issues related to uncompensated resistance, cylindrical diffusion, and alloying of the electrodeposited metals. Improvements to the existing voltammetry technique to account for these issues have been implemented, resulting in good measurements of actinide concentrations across a wide range of adverse conditions.

  19. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  20. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  1. Evaluation methods for hospital facilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fronczek-Munter, Aneta

    2013-01-01

    according to focus areas and proposes which evaluation methods to use in different building phases of healthcare facilities. Hospital evaluations with experts and users are also considered; their subjective view on space, function, technology, usability and aesthetics. Results & solutions: This paper...... presents the different methods for evaluating buildings in use in a new model, the Evaluation Focus Flower, and proposes which evaluation methods are suitable for various aims and building phases, i.e. which is giving best input for the initial briefing process of new hospital facilities with ambition...... of creating buildings with enhanced usability. Additionally various evaluation methods used in hospital cases in Denmark and Norway are presented. Involvement of users is proposed, not just in defining requirements but also in co-creation/design and evaluation of solutions. The theories and preliminary...

  2. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  3. Methods to estimate the genetic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehling, U.H.

    1989-01-01

    The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

  4. Evaluation of the Risk of Grade 3 Oral and Pharyngeal Dysphagia Using Atlas-Based Method and Multivariate Analyses of Individual Patient Dose Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otter, Sophie [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); Schick, Ulrike; Gulliford, Sarah [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); The Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Lal, Punita [Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow India (India); Franceschini, Davide [Department of Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery, Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan (Italy); Newbold, Katie; Nutting, Christopher; Harrington, Kevin [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); The Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Bhide, Shreerang, E-mail: shreerang.bhide@icr.ac.uk [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); The Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Department of Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery, Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan (Italy)

    2015-11-01

    Purpose: The study aimed to apply the atlas of complication incidence (ACI) method to patients receiving radical treatment for head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC), to generate constraints based on dose-volume histograms (DVHs), and to identify clinical and dosimetric parameters that predict the risk of grade 3 oral mucositis (g3OM) and pharyngeal dysphagia (g3PD). Methods and Materials: Oral and pharyngeal mucosal DVHs were generated for 253 patients who received radiation (RT) or chemoradiation (CRT). They were used to produce ACI for g3OM and g3PD. Multivariate analysis (MVA) of the effect of dosimetry, clinical, and patient-related variables was performed using logistic regression and bootstrapping. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was also performed, and the Youden index was used to find volume constraints that discriminated between volumes that predicted for toxicity. Results: We derived statistically significant dose-volume constraints for g3OM over the range v28 to v70. Only 3 statistically significant constraints were derived for g3PD v67, v68, and v69. On MVA, mean dose to the oral mucosa predicted for g3OM and concomitant chemotherapy and mean dose to the inferior constrictor (IC) predicted for g3PD. Conclusions: We have used the ACI method to evaluate incidences of g3OM and g3PD and ROC analysis to generate constraints to predict g3OM and g3PD derived from entire individual patient DVHs. On MVA, the strongest predictors were radiation dose (for g3OM) and concomitant chemotherapy (for g3PD).

  5. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  6. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  7. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  8. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  9. The Evaluation of a Risk Degree for the Process of a Brown Coal Spontaneous Ignition on Dumps with Using of Modern Numeric Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klouda, Petr; Moni, Vlastimil; Řehoř, Michal; Blata, Jan; Helebrant, František

    2018-06-01

    The article is a summary of information about evaluation of a risk degree for a brown coal spontaneous ignition which is realized on the base of a database analysis of information about the development of stative quantities and desorbated gases in the stored bodies of the brown coal. The data were gained from the long term complex measurements which were realized at chosen companies during the coal mining in the previous parts of the project. In the last part of the project, we examined results of temperature models from thermographs with results of gasses and coal samples from the mines. Then, the influence of atmospheric conditions (insolation, water downfall, changes of barometric pressure etc.), the influence of coal mass degradation, the influence of physical and chemical factors, and the influence of other defective factors on the process of the coal spontaneous ignition. The gasmetry was assess with gas in-situ samples and laboratory gas models of indicative gasses for the spontaneous ignition, which were taken from the method of the thermic oxidation with the aim of the correlation finding for an epicentre of temperature within the spontaneous ignition.

  10. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  12. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  13. Missing in space: an evaluation of imputation methods for missing data in spatial analysis of risk factors for type II diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jannah; White, Nicole; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2014-11-20

    Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.

  14. Evaluation Methods for Prevention Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blue, Amy V.; Barnette, J. Jackson; Ferguson, Kristi J.; Garr, David R.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the importance of assessing medical students' competence in prevention knowledge, skills, and attitudes. Provides general guidance for programs interested in evaluating their prevention instructional efforts, and gives specific examples of possible methods for evaluating prevention education. Stresses the need to tailor assessment…

  15. Wstępna ocena ryzyka zawodowego fizjoterapeuty za pomocą metody SWP = Preliminary evaluation of occupational risk for physiotherapists using the SWP method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinga Dorota Kulczycka

    2016-09-01

      Wstępna ocena ryzyka zawodowego fizjoterapeuty za pomocą metody SWP Preliminary evaluation of occupational risk for physiotherapists using the SWP method   Kinga Kulczycka, Marcin Domagała, Ewa Stychno   Katedra i Zakład Zarządzania w  Pielęgniarstwie Wydział Nauk o  Zdrowiu Uniwersytet Medyczny w Lublinie Chair and Department of Management in Nursing Faculty Health Sciences Medical University of Lublin   Słowa kluczowe: Narażenie zawodowe, Fizjoterapeuci, Obciążenie pracą Key words: Occupational exposure, Physical therapists, Workload       Dr n. med. Kinga Kulczycka, mgr. Marcin Domagała, dr n.med. Ewa Stychno   Doctor of Medical Sciences Kinga Kulczycka, Holder of University Degree Marcin Domagała, Doctor of Medical Sciences Ewa Stychno     Streszczenie  Sposób wykonywania pracy, w warunkach znacznego obciążenia  ma wielkie znaczenie w profilaktyce zaburzeń układu mięśniowo-szkieletowego. Praca fizjoterapeutów często wiąże się z koniecznością przyjmowania niefizjologicznych  pozycji ciała, w trakcie których może dojść do urazów. Celem badania jest rozpoznanie pozycji ciała przyjmowanych przez fizjoterapeutów podczas pracy, które mogą stanowić  czynniki ryzyka związane ze  sposobem wykonywania pracy fizjoterapeuty. Materiał i metody  Badania przeprowadzono w 2014 r. z udziałem 100 fizjoterapeutów pracujących na oddziałach rehabilitacji, na terenie województwa Świętokrzyskiego. Wyniki Respondenci oceniali jako niewłaściwe przyjmowane  pozycje ciała, które zaobserwowali podczas wykonywania czynności zawodowych związane są z  pochylaniem podczas wykonywania czynności,  zgięcie odcinka lędźwiowego kręgosłupa i częste rotacje. Jako dodatkowe obciążenia w pracy uważali zginanie głowy do przodu lub skręcenie karku. Ruchy ramion stanowią znaczną uciążliwość dla fizjoterapeutów i występują podczas podnoszenia rąk do przodu i przesuwaniu ich w kierunku klatki piersiowej

  16. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  17. Implementation of a consumer-focused eHealth intervention for people with moderate-to-high cardiovascular disease risk: protocol for a mixed-methods process evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coorey, Genevieve M; Neubeck, Lis; Usherwood, Timothy; Peiris, David; Parker, Sharon; Lau, Annie Y S; Chow, Clara; Panaretto, Kathryn; Harris, Mark; Zwar, Nicholas; Redfern, Julie

    2017-01-11

    Technology-mediated strategies have potential to engage patients in modifying unhealthy behaviour and improving medication adherence to reduce morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Furthermore, electronic tools offer a medium by which consumers can more actively navigate personal healthcare information. Understanding how, why and among whom such strategies have an effect can help determine the requirements for implementing them at a scale. This paper aims to detail a process evaluation that will (1) assess implementation fidelity of a multicomponent eHealth intervention; (2) determine its effective features; (3) explore contextual factors influencing and maintaining user engagement; and (4) describe barriers, facilitators, preferences and acceptability of such interventions. Mixed-methods sequential design to derive, examine, triangulate and report data from multiple sources. Quantitative data from 3 sources will help to inform both sampling and content framework for the qualitative data collection: (1) surveys of patients and general practitioners (GPs); (2) software analytics; (3) programme delivery records. Qualitative data from interviews with patients and GPs, focus groups with patients and field notes taken by intervention delivery staff will be thematically analysed. Concurrent interview data collection and analysis will enable a thematic framework to evolve inductively and inform theory building, consistent with a realistic evaluation perspective. Eligible patients are those at moderate-to-high CVD risk who were randomised to the intervention arm of a randomised controlled trial of an eHealth intervention and are contactable at completion of the follow-up period; eligible GPs are the primary healthcare providers of these patients. Ethics approval has been received from the University of Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee and the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council (AH&MRC) of New South Wales. Results will be disseminated

  18. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  19. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  20. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  1. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  2. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  3. LNG Safety Assessment Evaluation Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muna, Alice Baca [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); LaFleur, Angela Christine [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Sandia National Laboratories evaluated published safety assessment methods across a variety of industries including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), hydrogen, land and marine transportation, as well as the US Department of Defense (DOD). All the methods were evaluated for their potential applicability for use in the LNG railroad application. After reviewing the documents included in this report, as well as others not included because of repetition, the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Safety Plan Checklist is most suitable to be adapted to the LNG railroad application. This report was developed to survey industries related to rail transportation for methodologies and tools that can be used by the FRA to review and evaluate safety assessments submitted by the railroad industry as a part of their implementation plans for liquefied or compressed natural gas storage ( on-board or tender) and engine fueling delivery systems. The main sections of this report provide an overview of various methods found during this survey. In most cases, the reference document is quoted directly. The final section provides discussion and a recommendation for the most appropriate methodology that will allow efficient and consistent evaluations to be made. The DOE Hydrogen Safety Plan Checklist was then revised to adapt it as a methodology for the Federal Railroad Administration’s use in evaluating safety plans submitted by the railroad industry.

  4. Evaluation Using Sequential Trials Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Mark E.; Ralls, Stephen A.

    1986-01-01

    Although dental school faculty as well as practitioners are interested in evaluating products and procedures used in clinical practice, research design and statistical analysis can sometimes pose problems. Sequential trials methods provide an analytical structure that is both easy to use and statistically valid. (Author/MLW)

  5. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  6. Evaluation of Kjeldahl digestion method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amin, M.; Flowers, T.H.

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation of the Kjeldahl digestion method was investigated by comparing measured values of total nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium using three salt and catalyst mixture in Standard Kjeldahl digestion method and Salicyclic acid Modification method with certified values of plant material as well as comparison was made for determination of total nitrogen from steam distillation method verses the Technicon Auto-analyzer, and phosphorus Ascorbic acid/Molybdate method verses Molybdate/ Metavanadate method on the Technicon Auto-Analyzer. The 1 g salt/catalyst mixture recovered less nitrogen than the 2.5 g in the standard Kjeldahl method due to the lower temperature and incomplete digestion in both plant and soil samples. The 2.5 g catalyst mixture partially recovered nitrate in the standard Kjeldahl method and the salicylic acid modification fail to recover all over nitrate in plant material. Use of 2.5 g salt catalyst mixture and selenium appears to promote nitrogen losses in salicylic acid modification method but not in the standard Kjeldahl method of digestion for soil samples. No interference of selenium or copper was observed in Nitrogen and Phosphorus on calorimetric determination. The standard Kjeldahl method with 2.5 g of salt/catalyst mixture of sodium sulphate copper sulphate (10:1) in 5 ml sulfuric acid were found suitable for determination of total Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. The steam distillation and the Technicon Auto-Analyzer technique measure similar amounts of ammonium nitrogen. However, the Technicon Auto analyzer technique is easier, rapid, higher degree of reproducibility, precise, accurate, reliable and free from human error. The amount of phosphorus measured by the Ascorbic acid/Molybdate method was more accurate than by the Molybdate/Metavanadate method on Technicon Auto-Analyzer. (author)

  7. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  8. Classes evaluation: Methods and tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grabiński Tadeusz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a method, tools, course and results of foreign language classes evaluation conducted in the summer semester 2012/2013 in the Andrzej Frycz - Modrzewski Krakow University. Because a new evaluation procedure has been implemented at the University, the former method - based on paper forms filled in by the students - was abandoned. On the surveyanyplace.com website, a free account has been registered and the form of the evaluation questionnaire has been inserted. This coverage presents results of a taxometric analysis aimed at checking the degree of mutual correspondence (correlation between certain criteria and instancing a graphic presentation of the evaluation results in a multidimensional perspective. In order to classify the grading criteria, the Ward's agglomerative method, along with Euclidean metric as a measure of criteria similarity, have been used. Calculations have been made with the use of Statistica package. Results of the questionnaire show that foreign language teaching at the Andrzej Frycz Modrzewski Krakow University is conducted professionally and on a high factual level.

  9. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  10. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  11. Methods for evaluating information sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2012-01-01

    The article briefly presents and discusses 12 different approaches to the evaluation of information sources (for example a Wikipedia entry or a journal article): (1) the checklist approach; (2) classical peer review; (3) modified peer review; (4) evaluation based on examining the coverage...... of controversial views; (5) evidence-based evaluation; (6) comparative studies; (7) author credentials; (8) publisher reputation; (9) journal impact factor; (10) sponsoring: tracing the influence of economic, political, and ideological interests; (11) book reviews and book reviewing; and (12) broader criteria....... Reading a text is often not a simple process. All the methods discussed here are steps on the way on learning how to read, understand, and criticize texts. According to hermeneutics it involves the subjectivity of the reader, and that subjectivity is influenced, more or less, by different theoretical...

  12. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  13. DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HIGGINS, J.C.; O'HARA, J.M.; LEWIS, P.M.; PERSENSKY, J.; BONGARRA, J.

    2002-01-01

    DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS. THE U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) REVIEWS THE HUMAN FACTORS ASPECTS OF PROPOSED LICENSE AMENDMENTS THAT IMPACT HUMAN ACTIONS THAT ARE CREDITED IN A PLANTS SAFETY ANALYSIS. THE STAFF IS COMMITTED TO A GRADED APPROACH TO THESE REVIEWS THAT FOCUS RESOURCES ON THE MOST RISK IMPORTANT CHANGES. THEREFORE, A RISK INFORMED SCREENING METHOD WAS DEVELOPED BASED ON AN ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GUIDANCE FOR RISK INFORMED REGULATION AND HUMAN FACTORS. THE METHOD USES BOTH QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION TO DIVIDE THE AMENDMENT REQUESTS INTO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF REVIEW. THE METHOD WAS EVALUATED USING A VARIETY OF TESTS. THIS PAPER WILL SUMMARIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY AND THE EVALUATIONS THAT WERE PERFORMED TO VERIFY ITS USEFULNESS

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  15. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  16. Methods of assessing nuclear power plant risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skvarka, P.; Kovacz, Z.

    1985-01-01

    The concept of safety evalution is based on safety criteria -standards or set qualitative values of parameters and indices used in designing nuclear power plants, incorporating demands on the quality of equipment and operation of the plant, its siting and technical means for achieving nuclear safety. The concepts are presented of basic and optimal risk values. Factors are summed up indispensable for the evaluation of the nuclear power plant risk and the present world trend of evaluation based on probability is discussed. (J.C.)

  17. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  18. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  19. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  20. Safety evaluations by means of the method use of the risk matrix in radiotherapy treatments; Evaluaciones de seguridad mediante la utilizacion del metodo de la matriz de riesgo en tratamientos de radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, L.; Diaz, A.; Correa, T.; Gonzalez, Y., E-mail: lszamora@infomed.sld.cu [Hospital Clinico Quirurgico Hermanos Ameijeiras, San Lazaro No. 701, Centro Habana, 10400 La Habana (Cuba)

    2014-08-15

    The quality of a radiotherapy treatment is linked to multidisciplinary factors that need to be taken into account in combined form whenever an evaluation of the safety is carried out. Knowing the accidents happened in this area, and to guarantee their prevention, the causes and sequences that could behave to them should be controlled, for what is necessary to make periodic evaluations of the same one. Our objective was to carry out the safety evaluation to the treatment process of a radiotherapy service and to identify the causes and consequences that can cause these accidental exposures, for patients, worker or people, from the equipment installation until the treatment completion. The method of Risk Matrices was used, by means the SEVRRA system carried out by the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias of Mexico; this system allows to carry out a combined analysis of the occurrence frequency of the event initiator, the probability of human errors or barrier failures and the graveness of the consequences, facilitating the identification of the associated risk to the radiotherapy procedures. The method establishes priorities for the risk administration and identifies the main causes that could cause accidental exposures; also allows preventing the accidents occurrence using risk criterions that take into account the probability and magnitude of the potential exposures. This method, although does not allow to quantify numerically the risk, makes possible to classify it in levels, what is enough to establish priorities, without carrying out risks analysis but precise but more expensive. As a result we obtained that for the Co{sup 60} 77% of the treatments, is realized with low or half risk and 23% with high risk; the work load that is elevated in our case, intervenes directly in 46 initiators, in second and third place, the non realization of a portal image in the first treatment section and in the weekly continuation, as a consequences reducer, but

  1. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  2. Augmenting the Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susel, Irving; Lasley, Trace; Montezemolo, Mark; Piper, Joel

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) characterized and prioritized the physical cross-border threats and hazards to the nation stemming from terrorism, market-driven illicit flows of people and goods (illegal immigration, narcotics, funds, counterfeits, and weaponry), and other nonmarket concerns (movement of diseases, pests, and invasive species). These threats and hazards pose a wide diversity of consequences with very different combinations of magnitudes and likelihoods, making it very challenging to prioritize them. This article presents the approach that was used at DHS to arrive at a consensus regarding the threats and hazards that stand out from the rest based on the overall risk they pose. Due to time constraints for the decision analysis, it was not feasible to apply multiattribute methodologies like multiattribute utility theory or the analytic hierarchy process. Using a holistic approach was considered, such as the deliberative method for ranking risks first published in this journal. However, an ordinal ranking alone does not indicate relative or absolute magnitude differences among the risks. Therefore, the use of the deliberative method for ranking risks is not sufficient for deciding whether there is a material difference between the top-ranked and bottom-ranked risks, let alone deciding what the stand-out risks are. To address this limitation of ordinal rankings, the deliberative method for ranking risks was augmented by adding an additional step to transform the ordinal ranking into a ratio scale ranking. This additional step enabled the selection of stand-out risks to help prioritize further analysis. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Protocol: mixed-methods study to evaluate implementation, enforcement, and outcomes of U.S. state laws intended to curb high-risk opioid prescribing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinty, Emma E; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Caleb Alexander, G; Barry, Colleen L; Bicket, Mark C; Rutkow, Lainie

    2018-02-26

    The U.S. opioid epidemic has been driven by the high volume of opioids prescribed by healthcare providers. U.S. states have recently enacted four types of laws designed to curb high-risk prescribing practices, such as high-dose and long-term opioid prescribing, associated with opioid-related mortality: (1) mandatory Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) enrollment laws, which require prescribers to enroll in their state's PDMP, an electronic database of patients' controlled substance prescriptions, (2) mandatory PDMP query laws, which require prescribers to query the PDMP prior to prescribing an opioid, (3) opioid prescribing cap laws, which limit the dose and/or duration of opioid prescriptions, and (4) pill mill laws, which strictly regulate pain clinics to prevent nonmedical opioid prescribing. Some pain experts have expressed concern that these laws could negatively affect pain management among patients with chronic non-cancer pain. This paper describes the protocol for a mixed-methods study analyzing the independent effects of these four types of laws on opioid prescribing patterns and chronic non-cancer pain treatment, accounting for variation in implementation and enforcement of laws across states. Many states have enacted multiple opioid prescribing laws at or around the same time. To overcome this issue, our study focuses on 18 treatment states that each enacted a single law of interest, and no other potentially confounding laws, over a 4-year period (2 years pre-/post-law). Qualitative interviews with key leaders in each of the 18 treatment states will characterize the timing, scope, and strength of each state law's implementation and enforcement. This information will inform the design and interpretation of synthetic control models analyzing the effects of each of the two types of laws on two sets of outcomes: measures of (1) high-risk opioid prescribing and (2) non-opioid treatments for chronic non-cancer pain. Study of mandatory PDMP enrollment

  4. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  5. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  6. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  7. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  8. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  9. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  10. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  11. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  12. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  13. A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

    2017-08-01

    Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

  14. Comparison of methods for prioritizing risk in radiation oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biazotto, Bruna; Tokarski, Marcio

    2016-01-01

    Proactive risk management tools, such as Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FEMA), were imported from engineering and have been widely used in Radiation Oncology. An important step in this process is the risk prioritization and there are many methods to do that. This paper compares the risk prioritization of computerized planning phase in interstitial implants with high dose rate brachytherapy performed with Health Care Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and FMEA with guidelines given by the Task Group 100 (TG 100) of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine. Out of the 33 possible failure modes of this process, 21 require more attention when evaluated by HFMEA and 22, when evaluated by FMEA TG 100. Despite the high coincidence between the methods, the execution of HFMEA was simpler. (author)

  15. Pragmatism, Evidence, and Mixed Methods Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Jori N.

    2013-01-01

    Mixed methods evaluation has a long-standing history of enhancing the credibility of evaluation findings. However, using mixed methods in a utilitarian way implicitly emphasizes convenience over engaging with its philosophical underpinnings (Denscombe, 2008). Because of this, some mixed methods evaluators and social science researchers have been…

  16. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  17. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  18. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  19. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  20. Scoring methods and results for qualitative evaluation of public health impacts from the Hanford high-level waste tanks. Integrated Risk Assessment Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, J.W.; Gelston, G.M.; Farris, W.T.

    1995-09-01

    The objective of this analysis is to qualitatively rank the Hanford Site high-level waste (HLW) tanks according to their potential public health impacts through various (groundwater, surface water, and atmospheric) exposure pathways. Data from all 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 23 of the 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs) in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Program were analyzed for chemical and radiological carcinogenic as well as chemical noncarcinogenic health impacts. The preliminary aggregate score (PAS) ranking system was used to generate information from various release scenarios. Results based on the PAS ranking values should be considered relative health impacts rather than absolute risk values

  1. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  2. Method ranks competing projects by priorities, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeckel, D.R.

    1993-01-01

    A practical, objective guide for ranking projects based on risk-based priorities has been developed by Sun Pipe Line Co. The deliberately simple system guides decisions on how to allocate scarce company resources because all managers employ the same criteria in weighing potential risks to the company versus benefits. Managers at all levels are continuously having to comply with an ever growing amount of legislative and regulatory requirements while at the same time trying to run their businesses effectively. The system primarily is designed for use as a compliance oversight and tracking process to document, categorize, and follow-up on work concerning various issues or projects. That is, the system consists of an electronic database which is updated periodically, and is used by various levels of management to monitor progress of health, safety, environmental and compliance-related projects. Criteria used in determining a risk factor and assigning a priority also have been adapted and found useful for evaluating other types of projects. The process enables management to better define potential risks and/or loss of benefits that are being accepted when a project is rejected from an immediate work plan or budget. In times of financial austerity, it is extremely important that the right decisions are made at the right time

  3. Food Seeking in a Risky Environment: A Method for Evaluating Risk and Reward Value in Food Seeking and Consumption in Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockie, Sarah H; McAuley, Clare V; Rawlinson, Sasha; Guiney, Natalie; Andrews, Zane B

    2017-01-01

    Most studies that measure food intake in mice do so in the home cage environment. This necessarily means that mice do not engage in food seeking before consumption, a behavior that is ubiquitous in free-living animals. We modified and validated several commonly used anxiety tests to include a palatable food reward within the anxiogenic zone. This allowed us to assess risk-taking behavior in food seeking in mice in response to different metabolic stimuli. We modified the open field test and the light/dark box by placing palatable peanut butter chips within a designated food zone inside the anxiogenic zone of each apparatus. We then assessed parameters of the interaction with the food reward. Fasted mice or mice treated with ghrelin showed increased consumption and increased time spent in the food zone immediately around the food reward compared to ad libitum fed mice or mice treated with saline. However, fasted mice treated with IP glucose before exposure to the behavioral arena showed reduced time in the food zone compared to fasted controls, indicating that acute metabolic signals can modify the assessment of safety in food seeking in a risky environment. The tests described in this study will be useful in assessing risk processing and incentive salience of food reward, which are intrinsic components of food acquisition outside of the laboratory environment, in a range of genetic and pharmacological models.

  4. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  5. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  6. Methods and Metrics for Evaluating Environmental Dredging ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report documents the objectives, approach, methodologies, results, and interpretation of a collaborative research study conducted by the National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) and the National Exposure Research laboratory (NERL) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA’s) Office of Research and Development (ORD) and the U.S. EPA’s Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO). The objectives of the research study were to: 1) evaluate remedy effectiveness of environmental dredging as applied to contaminated sediments in the Ashtabula River in northeastern Ohio, and 2) monitor the recovery of the surrounding ecosystem. The project was carried out over 6 years from 2006 through 2011 and consisted of the development and evaluation of methods and approaches to assess river and ecosystem conditions prior to dredging (2006), during dredging (2006 and 2007), and following dredging, both short term (2008) and long term (2009-2011). This project report summarizes and interprets the results of this 6-year study to develop and assess methods for monitoring pollutant fate and transport and ecosystem recovery through the use of biological, chemical, and physical lines of evidence (LOEs) such as: 1) comprehensive sampling of and chemical analysis of contaminants in surface, suspended, and historic sediments; 2) extensive grab and multi-level real time water sampling and analysis of contaminants in the water column; 3) sampling, chemi

  7. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  8. Method for evaluating multiple mediators: mediating effects of smoking and COPD on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 variant and lung cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Spitz, Margaret R; Amos, Christopher I; Wu, Xifeng; Wetter, David W; Cinciripini, Paul M; Shete, Sanjay

    2012-01-01

    A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects between an independent variable and a dependent variable by including other variables (or mediators). Mediation analysis has recently been used to dissect the direct and indirect effects of genetic variants on complex diseases using case-control studies. However, bias could arise in the estimations of the genetic variant-mediator association because the presence or absence of the mediator in the study samples is not sampled following the principles of case-control study design. In this case, the mediation analysis using data from case-control studies might lead to biased estimates of coefficients and indirect effects. In this article, we investigated a multiple-mediation model involving a three-path mediating effect through two mediators using case-control study data. We propose an approach to correct bias in coefficients and provide accurate estimates of the specific indirect effects. Our approach can also be used when the original case-control study is frequency matched on one of the mediators. We employed bootstrapping to assess the significance of indirect effects. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach, and showed that it provides more accurate estimates of the indirect effects as well as the percent mediated than standard regressions. We then applied this approach to study the mediating effects of both smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 gene locus and lung cancer risk using data from a lung cancer case-control study. The results showed that the genetic variant influences lung cancer risk indirectly through all three different pathways. The percent of genetic association mediated was 18.3% through smoking alone, 30.2% through COPD alone, and 20.6% through the path including both smoking and COPD, and the total genetic variant-lung cancer association explained by the two mediators was 69.1%.

  9. Method for evaluating multiple mediators: mediating effects of smoking and COPD on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 variant and lung cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Wang

    Full Text Available A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects between an independent variable and a dependent variable by including other variables (or mediators. Mediation analysis has recently been used to dissect the direct and indirect effects of genetic variants on complex diseases using case-control studies. However, bias could arise in the estimations of the genetic variant-mediator association because the presence or absence of the mediator in the study samples is not sampled following the principles of case-control study design. In this case, the mediation analysis using data from case-control studies might lead to biased estimates of coefficients and indirect effects. In this article, we investigated a multiple-mediation model involving a three-path mediating effect through two mediators using case-control study data. We propose an approach to correct bias in coefficients and provide accurate estimates of the specific indirect effects. Our approach can also be used when the original case-control study is frequency matched on one of the mediators. We employed bootstrapping to assess the significance of indirect effects. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach, and showed that it provides more accurate estimates of the indirect effects as well as the percent mediated than standard regressions. We then applied this approach to study the mediating effects of both smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 gene locus and lung cancer risk using data from a lung cancer case-control study. The results showed that the genetic variant influences lung cancer risk indirectly through all three different pathways. The percent of genetic association mediated was 18.3% through smoking alone, 30.2% through COPD alone, and 20.6% through the path including both smoking and COPD, and the total genetic variant-lung cancer association explained by the two

  10. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  11. Discount method for programming language evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurtev, Svetomir; Christensen, Tommy Aagaard; Thomsen, Bent

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents work in progress on developing a Discount Method for Programming Language Evaluation inspired by the Discount Usability Evaluation method (Benyon 2010) and the Instant Data Analysis method (Kjeldskov et al. 2004). The method is intended to bridge the gap between small scale...... internal language design evaluation methods and large scale surveys and quantitative evaluation methods. The method is designed to be applicable even before a compiler or IDE is developed for a new language. To test the method, a usability evaluation experiment was carried out on the Quorum programming...... language (Stefik et al. 2016) using programmers with experience in C and C#. When comparing our results with previous studies of Quorum, most of the data was comparable though not strictly in agreement. However, the discrepancies were mainly related to the programmers pre-existing expectations...

  12. [Risk sharing methods in middle income countries].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inotai, András; Kaló, Zoltán

    2012-01-01

    The pricing strategy of innovative medicines is based on the therapeutic value in the largest pharmaceutical markets. The cost-effectiveness of new medicines with value based ex-factory price is justifiable. Due to the international price referencing and parallel trade the ex-factory price corridor of new medicines has been narrowed in recent years. Middle income countries have less negotiation power to change the narrow drug pricing corridor, although their fair intention is to buy pharmaceuticals at lower price from their scarce public resources compared to higher income countries. Therefore the reimbursement of new medicines at prices of Western-European countries may not be justifiable in Central-Eastern European countries. Confidential pricing agreements (i.e. confidential price discounts, claw-back or rebate) in lower income countries of the European Union can alleviate this problem, as prices of new medicines can be adjusted to local purchasing power without influencing the published ex-factory price and so the accessibility of patients to these drugs in other countries. In order to control the drug budget payers tend to apply financial risk sharing agreements for new medicines in more and more countries to shift the consequences of potential overspending to pharmaceutical manufacturers. The major paradox of financial risk-sharing schemes is that increased mortality, poor persistence of patients, reduced access to healthcare providers, and no treatment reduce pharmaceutical spending. Consequently, payers have started to apply outcome based risk sharing agreements for new medicines recently to improve the quality of health care provision. Our paper aims to review and assess the published financial and outcome based risk sharing methods. Introduction of outcome based risk-sharing schemes can be a major advancement in the drug reimbursement strategy of payers in middle income countries. These schemes can help to reduce the medical uncertainty in coverage

  13. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  14. Studies report: methods for the evaluation and the prevention of accidental risks (DRA 35 - report {omega} 11). Knowledge of solid fuels self-heating; Rapport d'etude: methodes pour l'evaluation et la prevention des risques accidentels (DRA 35 - rapport {omega} 11). Connaissance des phenomenes d'autoechauffement des solides combustibles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-02-15

    The aim of this document is to present a synthesis of the knowledge on risks bond to auto-heating phenomena which occur in solid fuels storage. It analyzes the role of some factors on the heating, and more specially the mass, temperature, oxygen content of the atmosphere and humidity. It presents a general methodology of risks evaluation and measures on the risks detection and prevention. (A.L.B.)

  15. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  17. A comparison of radiological risk assessment methods for environmental restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Peterson, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Evaluation of risks to human health from exposure to ionizing radiation at radioactively contaminated sites is an integral part of the decision-making process for determining the need for remediation and selecting remedial actions that may be required. At sites regulated under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), a target risk range of 10 -4 to 10 -6 incremental cancer incidence over a lifetime is specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as generally acceptable, based on the reasonable maximum exposure to any individual under current and future land use scenarios. Two primary methods currently being used in conducting radiological risk assessments at CERCLA sites are compared in this analysis. Under the first method, the radiation dose equivalent (i.e., Sv or rem) to the receptors of interest over the appropriate period of exposure is estimated and multiplied by a risk factor (cancer risk/Sv). Alternatively, incremental cancer risk can be estimated by combining the EPA's cancer slope factors (previously termed potency factors) for radionuclides with estimates of radionuclide intake by ingestion and inhalation, as well as radionuclide concentrations in soil that contribute to external dose. The comparison of the two methods has demonstrated that resulting estimates of lifetime incremental cancer risk under these different methods may differ significantly, even when all other exposure assumptions are held constant, with the magnitude of the discrepancy depending upon the dominant radionuclides and exposure pathways for the site. The basis for these discrepancies, the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and the significance of the discrepant results for environmental restoration decisions are presented

  18. Computational methods for data evaluation and assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Data evaluation and data combination require the use of a wide range of probability theory concepts and tools, from deductive statistics mainly concerning frequencies and sample tallies to inductive inference for assimilating non-frequency data and a priori knowledge. Computational Methods for Data Evaluation and Assimilation presents interdisciplinary methods for integrating experimental and computational information. This self-contained book shows how the methods can be applied in many scientific and engineering areas. After presenting the fundamentals underlying the evaluation of experiment

  19. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  20. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  1. Evaluation of nitrate destruction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, P.A.; Kurath, D.E.; Guenther, R.

    1993-01-01

    A wide variety of high nitrate-concentration aqueous mixed [radioactive and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) hazardous] wastes are stored at various US Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. These wastes will ultimately be solidified for final disposal, although the waste acceptance criteria for the final waste form is still being determined. Because the nitrates in the wastes will normally increase the volume or reduce the integrity of all of the waste forms under consideration for final disposal, nitrate destruction before solidification of the waste will generally be beneficial. This report describes and evaluates various technologies that could be used to destroy the nitrates in the stored wastes. This work was funded by the Department of Energy's Office of Technology Development, through the Chemical/Physical Technology Support Group of the Mixed Waste Integrated Program. All the nitrate destruction technologies will require further development work before a facility could be designed and built to treat the majority of the stored wastes. Several of the technologies have particularly attractive features: the nitrate to ammonia and ceramic (NAC) process produces an insoluble waste form with a significant volume reduction, electrochemical reduction destroys nitrates without any chemical addition, and the hydrothermal process can simultaneously treat nitrates and organics in both acidic and alkaline wastes. These three technologies have been tested using lab-scale equipment and surrogate solutions. At their current state of development, it is not possible to predict which process will be the most beneficial for a particular waste stream

  2. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  3. A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingtao; Zhang, Ying

    2009-07-01

    Online credit evaluation is the foundation for the establishment of trust and for the management of risk between buyers and sellers in e-commerce. In this paper, a new credit evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the set pair analysis (SPA) is presented to determine the credibility of the electronic commerce participants. It solves some of the drawbacks found in classical credit evaluation methods and broadens the scope of current approaches. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered in the proposed method, then a overall credit score is achieved from the optimal perspective. In the end, a case analysis of China Garment Network is provided for illustrative purposes.

  4. Methods for evaluating imaging methods of limited reproducibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krummenauer, F.

    2005-01-01

    Just like new drugs, new or modified imaging methods must be subjected to objective clinical tests, including tests on humans. In this, it must be ensured that the principle of Good Clinical Practice (GCP) are followed with regard to medical, administrative and methodical quality. Innovative methods fo clinical epidemiology and medical biometry should be applied from the planning stage to the final statistical evaluation. The author presents established and new methods for planning, evaluation and reporting of clinical tests of diagnostic methods, and especially imaging methods, in clinical medicine and illustrates these by means of current research projects in the various medical disciplines. The strategies presented are summarized in a recommendation based on the concept of phases I - IV of clinical drug testing in order to enable standardisation of the clinical evaluation of imaging methods. (orig.)

  5. Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimolong, B.

    1980-01-01

    Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

  6. Optimizing Usability Studies by Complementary Evaluation Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmettow, Martin; Bach, Cedric; Scapin, Dominique

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines combinations of complementary evaluation methods as a strategy for efficient usability problem discovery. A data set from an earlier study is re-analyzed, involving three evaluation methods applied to two virtual environment applications. Results of a mixed-effects logistic

  7. Empirical evaluation methods in computer vision

    CERN Document Server

    Christensen, Henrik I

    2002-01-01

    This book provides comprehensive coverage of methods for the empirical evaluation of computer vision techniques. The practical use of computer vision requires empirical evaluation to ensure that the overall system has a guaranteed performance. The book contains articles that cover the design of experiments for evaluation, range image segmentation, the evaluation of face recognition and diffusion methods, image matching using correlation methods, and the performance of medical image processing algorithms. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (228 KB). Chapter 1: Introduction (505 KB). Contents: Automate

  8. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  9. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  10. Challenges in Using Mix Methods in Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Stefan COJOCARU

    2010-01-01

    This article explores the debates between quantitative and qualitative methods in the evaluation process, analyzes the challenges about methodological mix in terms of credibility and validity of data and tools, and the evaluation findings. Beyond the epistemological contradictions, it seems that, in terms of usefulness, the mixing of methods is a practical solution, along with hybrids theories, able to provide information to improve the sufficiency of the program. Mixing methods is also a wa...

  11. Evaluation methods for neutron cross section standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhat, M.R.

    1980-01-01

    Methods used to evaluate the neutron cross section standards are reviewed and their relative merits, assessed. These include phase-shift analysis, R-matrix fit, and a number of other methods by Poenitz, Bhat, Kon'shin and the Bayesian or generalized least-squares procedures. The problems involved in adopting these methods for future cross section standards evaluations are considered, and the prospects for their use, discussed. 115 references, 5 figures, 3 tables

  12. Promoting physical activity and health literacy: study protocol for a longitudinal, mixed methods evaluation of a cross-provider workplace-related intervention in Germany (The AtRisk study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Schaller

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity and health literacy are topics of utmost importance in the prevention of chronic diseases. The present article describes the study protocol for evaluating a cross-provider workplace-related intervention promoting physical activity and health literacy. Methods The RE-AIM Framework will be the conceptual framework of the AtRisk study. A controlled natural experiment and a qualitative study will be conducted. The cross-provider intervention is based on the cooperation of the German Pension Fund Rhineland and cooperating German Statutory Health Insurances. It combines two components: a behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention and the assignment of a health coach. The single-provider intervention only includes the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention. The quantitative study (natural experiment encompasses three measuring points (T0 = start of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (baseline; T1 = end of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (16 weeks; T2 = 6 month follow-up and will compare the effectiveness of the cross-provider workplace-related intervention compared with the single provider intervention. Participants are employees with health related risk factors. ANCOVA will be used to evaluate the effect of the intervention on the outcome variables leisure time physical (primary outcome activity and health literacy (secondary outcome. The qualitative study comprises semi-structured interviews, systematic field notes of stakeholder meetings and document analyses. Discussion The AtRisk study will contribute towards the claim for cross-provider interventions and workplace-related approaches described in the new Preventive Health Care Act. The results of this study will inform providers, payers and policy makers about the effectiveness of a cross-provider workplace-related lifestyle intervention compared to a single-provider intervention. Beyond, the study will identify challenges

  13. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  14. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  15. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  16. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

    2018-01-22

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

  17. Geophysical methods for evaluation of plutonic rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibb, R.A.; Scott, J.S.

    1986-04-01

    Geophysical methods are systematically described according to the physical principle and operational mode of each method, the type of information produced, limitations of a technical and/or economic nature, and the applicability of the method to rock-mass evaluation at Research Areas of the Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. The geophysical methods fall into three categories: (1) airborne and other reconnaissance surveys, (2) detailed or surface (ground) surveys, and (3) borehole or subsurface surveys. The possible roles of each method in the site-screening and site-evaluation processes of disposal vault site selection are summarized

  18. The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

    2001-03-01

    he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

  19. Safeguards Evaluation Method for evaluating vulnerability to insider threats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Judd, B.R.; Renis, T.A.

    1986-01-01

    As protection of DOE facilities against outsiders increases to acceptable levels, attention is shifting toward achieving comparable protection against insiders. Since threats and protection measures for insiders are substantially different from those for outsiders, new perspectives and approaches are needed. One such approach is the Safeguards Evaluation Method. This method helps in assessing safeguards vulnerabilities to theft or diversion of special nuclear meterial (SNM) by insiders. The Safeguards Evaluation Method-Insider Threat is a simple model that can be used by safeguards and security planners to evaluate safeguards and proposed upgrades at their own facilities. The method is used to evaluate the effectiveness of safeguards in both timely detection (in time to prevent theft) and late detection (after-the-fact). The method considers the various types of potential insider adversaries working alone or in collusion with other insiders. The approach can be used for a wide variety of facilities with various quantities and forms of SNM. An Evaluation Workbook provides documentation of the baseline assessment; this simplifies subsequent on-site appraisals. Quantitative evaluation is facilitated by an accompanying computer program. The method significantly increases an evaluation team's on-site analytical capabilities, thereby producing a more thorough and accurate safeguards evaluation

  20. Nondestructive evaluation ultrasonic methods for construction materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chilibon, I.; Zisu, T.; Raetchi, V.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents some ultrasonic methods for evaluation of physical-mechanical properties of construction materials (bricks, concrete, BCA), such as: pulse method, examination methods, and direct measurement of the propagation velocity and impact-echo method. Utilizing these nondestructive evaluation ultrasonic methods it can be determined the main material parameters and material characteristics (elasticity coefficients, density, propagation velocity, ultrasound attenuation, etc.) of construction materials. These method are suitable for construction materials because the defectoscopy methods for metallic materials cannot be utilized, due to its rugged and non-homogeneous structures and grate attenuation coefficients of ultrasound propagation through materials. Also, the impact-echo method is a technique for flaw detection in concrete based on stress wave propagation. Studies have shown that the impact-echo method is effective for locating voids, honeycombing, delaminating, depth of surface opening cracks, and measuring member thickness

  1. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  2. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  3. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  4. A strategy for evaluating pathway analysis methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chenggang; Woo, Hyung Jun; Yu, Xueping; Oyama, Tatsuya; Wallqvist, Anders; Reifman, Jaques

    2017-10-13

    Researchers have previously developed a multitude of methods designed to identify biological pathways associated with specific clinical or experimental conditions of interest, with the aim of facilitating biological interpretation of high-throughput data. Before practically applying such pathway analysis (PA) methods, we must first evaluate their performance and reliability, using datasets where the pathways perturbed by the conditions of interest have been well characterized in advance. However, such 'ground truths' (or gold standards) are often unavailable. Furthermore, previous evaluation strategies that have focused on defining 'true answers' are unable to systematically and objectively assess PA methods under a wide range of conditions. In this work, we propose a novel strategy for evaluating PA methods independently of any gold standard, either established or assumed. The strategy involves the use of two mutually complementary metrics, recall and discrimination. Recall measures the consistency of the perturbed pathways identified by applying a particular analysis method to an original large dataset and those identified by the same method to a sub-dataset of the original dataset. In contrast, discrimination measures specificity-the degree to which the perturbed pathways identified by a particular method to a dataset from one experiment differ from those identifying by the same method to a dataset from a different experiment. We used these metrics and 24 datasets to evaluate six widely used PA methods. The results highlighted the common challenge in reliably identifying significant pathways from small datasets. Importantly, we confirmed the effectiveness of our proposed dual-metric strategy by showing that previous comparative studies corroborate the performance evaluations of the six methods obtained by our strategy. Unlike any previously proposed strategy for evaluating the performance of PA methods, our dual-metric strategy does not rely on any ground truth

  5. A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

  6. Color image definition evaluation method based on deep learning method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Di; Li, YingChun

    2018-01-01

    In order to evaluate different blurring levels of color image and improve the method of image definition evaluation, this paper proposed a method based on the depth learning framework and BP neural network classification model, and presents a non-reference color image clarity evaluation method. Firstly, using VGG16 net as the feature extractor to extract 4,096 dimensions features of the images, then the extracted features and labeled images are employed in BP neural network to train. And finally achieve the color image definition evaluation. The method in this paper are experimented by using images from the CSIQ database. The images are blurred at different levels. There are 4,000 images after the processing. Dividing the 4,000 images into three categories, each category represents a blur level. 300 out of 400 high-dimensional features are trained in VGG16 net and BP neural network, and the rest of 100 samples are tested. The experimental results show that the method can take full advantage of the learning and characterization capability of deep learning. Referring to the current shortcomings of the major existing image clarity evaluation methods, which manually design and extract features. The method in this paper can extract the images features automatically, and has got excellent image quality classification accuracy for the test data set. The accuracy rate is 96%. Moreover, the predicted quality levels of original color images are similar to the perception of the human visual system.

  7. Credit Institutions Management Evaluation using Quantitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Credit institutions supervising mission by state authorities is mostly assimilated with systemic risk prevention. In present, the mission is orientated on analyzing the risk profile of the credit institutions, the mechanism and existing systems as management tools providing to bank rules the proper instruments to avoid and control specific bank risks. Rating systems are sophisticated measurement instruments which are capable to assure the above objectives, such as success in banking risk management. The management quality is one of the most important elements from the set of variables used in the quoting process in credit operations. Evaluation of this quality is – generally speaking – fundamented on quantitative appreciations which can induce subjectivism and heterogeneity in quotation. The problem can be solved by using, complementary, quantitative technics such us DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis.

  8. Methods of ecological capability evaluation of forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, M.; Makhdoum, M.F.; Akbarnia, M.; Saghebtalebi, Kh.

    2000-01-01

    In this research common methods of ecological capability evaluation of forests were reviewed and limitations for performance were analysed. Ecological capability of forests is an index that show site potential in several role of wood production, soil conservation, flood control, biodiversity, conservation and water supply. This index is related to ecological characteristics of land, such as soil, micro climate, elevation, slope and aspect that affect potential of sites. Suitable method of ecological capability evaluation must be chosen according to the objective of forestry. Common methods for ecological capability evaluation include plant and animal diversity, site index curve, soil and land form, inter branches, index plants, leave analyses, analyses regeneration and ecological mapping

  9. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  10. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  11. A Method of Evaluating Operation of Electric Energy Meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiangqun; Li, Tianyang; Cao, Fei; Chu, Pengfei; Zhao, Xinwang; Huang, Rui; Liu, Liping; Zhang, Chenglin

    2018-05-01

    The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

  12. Creating Alternative Methods for Educational Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nick L.

    1981-01-01

    A project supported by the National Institute of Education is adapting evaluation procedures from such areas as philosophy, geography, operations research, journalism, film criticism, and other areas. The need for such methods is reviewed, as is the context in which they function, and their contributions to evaluation methodology. (Author/GK)

  13. Consumer behavior changing: methods of evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elīna Gaile-Sarkane

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to methods of analyses of consumer buying behavior as well as to evaluation of most important factors what influences consumer behavior. This research aims at investigations about the changes in consumer behavior caused by globalization and development of information technologies; it helps to understand the specific factors what should be taken into account in evaluation of consumer behavior. The authors employ well-established quantitative and qualitative methods of research: grouping, analysis, synthesis, expert method, statistic method, etc. Research findings disclosed that there is possibility to introduce new methods for evaluation of changing consumer behavior.

  14. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  15. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  16. Evaluation of winter pothole patching methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of the tow-behind combination : infrared asphalt heater/reclaimer patching method and compare it to the throw and roll and spray injection methods. To : achieve t...

  17. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  18. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluation of registration methods on thoracic CT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murphy, K.; van Ginneken, B.; Reinhardt, J.

    2011-01-01

    method and the evaluation is independent, using the same criteria for all participants. All results are published on the EMPIRE10 website (http://empire10.isi.uu.nl). The challenge remains ongoing and open to new participants. Full results from 24 algorithms have been published at the time of writing......EMPIRE10 (Evaluation of Methods for Pulmonary Image REgistration 2010) is a public platform for fair and meaningful comparison of registration algorithms which are applied to a database of intra-patient thoracic CT image pairs. Evaluation of non-rigid registration techniques is a non trivial task....... This article details the organisation of the challenge, the data and evaluation methods and the outcome of the initial launch with 20 algorithms. The gain in knowledge and future work are discussed....

  20. Methods for the comparative evaluation of pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Busse, Reinhard

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Political background: As a German novelty, the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen; IGWiG was established in 2004 to, among other tasks, evaluate the benefit of pharmaceuticals. In this context it is of importance that patented pharmaceuticals are only excluded from the reference pricing system if they offer a therapeutic improvement. The institute is commissioned by the Federal Joint Committee (Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss, G-BA or by the Ministry of Health and Social Security. The German policy objective expressed by the latest health care reform (Gesetz zur Modernisierung der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung, GMG is to base decisions on a scientific assessment of pharmaceuticals in comparison to already available treatments. However, procedures and methods are still to be established. Research questions and methods: This health technology assessment (HTA report was commissioned by the German Agency for HTA at the Institute for Medical Documentation and Information (DAHTA@DIMDI. It analysed criteria, procedures, and methods of comparative drug assessment in other EU-/OECD-countries. The research question was the following: How do national public institutions compare medicines in connection with pharmaceutical regulation, i.e. licensing, reimbursement and pricing of drugs? Institutions as well as documents concerning comparative drug evaluation (e.g. regulations, guidelines were identified through internet, systematic literature, and hand searches. Publications were selected according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Documents were analysed in a qualitative matter following an analytic framework that had been developed in advance. Results were summarised narratively and presented in evidence tables. Results and discussion: Currently licensing agencies do not systematically assess a new drug's added value for patients and society. This is why many

  1. Success tree method of resources evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qinglan; Sun Wenpeng

    1994-01-01

    By applying the reliability theory in system engineering, the success tree method is used to transfer the expert's recognition on metallogenetic regularities into the form of the success tree. The aim of resources evaluation is achieved by means of calculating the metallogenetic probability or favorability of the top event of the success tree. This article introduces in detail, the source, principle of the success tree method and three kinds of calculation methods, expounds concretely how to establish the success tree of comprehensive uranium metallogenesis as well as the procedure from which the resources evaluation is performed. Because this method has not restrictions on the number of known deposits and calculated area, it is applicable to resources evaluation for different mineral species, types and scales and possesses good prospects of development

  2. Statistical methods for evaluating the attainment of cleanup standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.

    1992-12-01

    This document is the third volume in a series of volumes sponsored by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Statistical Policy Branch, that provide statistical methods for evaluating the attainment of cleanup Standards at Superfund sites. Volume 1 (USEPA 1989a) provides sampling designs and tests for evaluating attainment of risk-based standards for soils and solid media. Volume 2 (USEPA 1992) provides designs and tests for evaluating attainment of risk-based standards for groundwater. The purpose of this third volume is to provide statistical procedures for designing sampling programs and conducting statistical tests to determine whether pollution parameters in remediated soils and solid media at Superfund sites attain site-specific reference-based standards. This.document is written for individuals who may not have extensive training or experience with statistical methods. The intended audience includes EPA regional remedial project managers, Superfund-site potentially responsible parties, state environmental protection agencies, and contractors for these groups.

  3. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  4. 31 CFR 223.11 - Limitation of risk: Protective methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation of risk: Protective methods. 223.11 Section 223.11 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance... BUSINESS WITH THE UNITED STATES § 223.11 Limitation of risk: Protective methods. The limitation of risk...

  5. Web Applications Vulnerability Management using a Quantitative Stochastic Risk Modeling Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiu SECHEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a quantitative risk modeling method that reduces the guess work and uncertainty from the vulnerability and risk assessment activities of web based applications while providing users the flexibility to assess risk according to their risk appetite and tolerance with a high degree of assurance. The research method is based on the research done by the OWASP Foundation on this subject but their risk rating methodology needed de-bugging and updates in different in key areas that are presented in this paper. The modified risk modeling method uses Monte Carlo simulations to model risk characteristics that can’t be determined without guess work and it was tested in vulnerability assessment activities on real production systems and in theory by assigning discrete uniform assumptions to all risk charac-teristics (risk attributes and evaluate the results after 1.5 million rounds of Monte Carlo simu-lations.

  6. Simplified methods for the evaluation of the risk of forming renal stones and the follow-up of stone-forming propensity during the preventive treatment of stone-formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grases, Fèlix; Costa-Bauzá, Antonia

    2016-02-01

    Renal lithiasis is a complex multifactorial disease in which recurrence is common. Thus, simple and reliable procedures are needed to evaluate patients with previous kidney stones to determine the risk of recurrence. In this paper we review simple biochemical procedures that can be used to determine the risk for renal stone formation when the stone is available or unavailable for analysis. Our present knowledge of renal lithiasis indicates that renal stones form due to several well-defined factors. Analysis of the renal stone itself can provide important information about clinical factors that require further investigation. When the stone is unavailable, it is necessary to perform a general evaluation of main urinary risk factors associated to renal stone formation, but this study should be complemented considering information related to direct familial antecedents, recidivant degree, radiological images, medical history, and life style habits. Finally, tools for patient follow-up of stone-forming propensity during the preventive treatment are discussed .

  7. Methods for the comparative evaluation of pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zentner, Annette; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Busse, Reinhard

    2005-11-15

    POLITICAL BACKGROUND: As a German novelty, the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen; IGWiG) was established in 2004 to, among other tasks, evaluate the benefit of pharmaceuticals. In this context it is of importance that patented pharmaceuticals are only excluded from the reference pricing system if they offer a therapeutic improvement. The institute is commissioned by the Federal Joint Committee (Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss, G-BA) or by the Ministry of Health and Social Security. The German policy objective expressed by the latest health care reform (Gesetz zur Modernisierung der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung, GMG) is to base decisions on a scientific assessment of pharmaceuticals in comparison to already available treatments. However, procedures and methods are still to be established. This health technology assessment (HTA) report was commissioned by the German Agency for HTA at the Institute for Medical Documentation and Information (DAHTA@DIMDI). It analysed criteria, procedures, and methods of comparative drug assessment in other EU-/OECD-countries. The research question was the following: How do national public institutions compare medicines in connection with pharmaceutical regulation, i.e. licensing, reimbursement and pricing of drugs? Institutions as well as documents concerning comparative drug evaluation (e.g. regulations, guidelines) were identified through internet, systematic literature, and hand searches. Publications were selected according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Documents were analysed in a qualitative matter following an analytic framework that had been developed in advance. Results were summarised narratively and presented in evidence tables. Currently licensing agencies do not systematically assess a new drug's added value for patients and society. This is why many countries made post-licensing evaluation of pharmaceuticals a

  8. Methods for evaluation of industry training programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morisseau, D.S.; Roe, M.L.; Persensky, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The NRC Policy Statement on Training and Qualification endorses the INPO-managed Training Accreditation Program in that it encompasses the elements of effective performance-based training. Those elements are: analysis of the job, performance-based learning objectives, training design and implementation, trainee evaluation, and program evaluation. As part of the NRC independent evaluation of utilities implementation of training improvement programs, the staff developed training review criteria and procedures that address all five elements of effective performance-based training. The staff uses these criteria to perform reviews of utility training programs that have already received accreditation. Although no performance-based training program can be said to be complete unless all five elements are in place, the last two, trainee and program evaluation, are perhaps the most important because they determine how well the first three elements have been implemented and ensure the dynamic nature of training. This paper discusses the evaluation elements of the NRC training review criteria. The discussion will detail the elements of evaluation methods and techniques that the staff expects to find as integral parts of performance-based training programs at accredited utilities. Further, the review of the effectiveness of implementation of the evaluation methods is discussed. The paper also addresses some of the qualitative differences between what is minimally acceptable and what is most desirable with respect to trainee and program evaluation mechanisms and their implementation

  9. Evaluating a method for automated rigid registration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Darkner, Sune; Vester-Christensen, Martin; Larsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    to point distance. T-test for common mean are used to determine the performance of the two methods (supported by a Wilcoxon signed rank test). The performance influence of sampling density, sampling quantity, and norms is analyzed using a similar method.......We evaluate a novel method for fully automated rigid registration of 2D manifolds in 3D space based on distance maps, the Gibbs sampler and Iterated Conditional Modes (ICM). The method is tested against the ICP considered as the gold standard for automated rigid registration. Furthermore...

  10. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  11. Quantitative Efficiency Evaluation Method for Transportation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Qin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available An effective evaluation of transportation network efficiency/performance is essential to the establishment of sustainable development in any transportation system. Based on a redefinition of transportation network efficiency, a quantitative efficiency evaluation method for transportation network is proposed, which could reflect the effects of network structure, traffic demands, travel choice, and travel costs on network efficiency. Furthermore, the efficiency-oriented importance measure for network components is presented, which can be used to help engineers identify the critical nodes and links in the network. The numerical examples show that, compared with existing efficiency evaluation methods, the network efficiency value calculated by the method proposed in this paper can portray the real operation situation of the transportation network as well as the effects of main factors on network efficiency. We also find that the network efficiency and the importance values of the network components both are functions of demands and network structure in the transportation network.

  12. "System evaluates system": method for evaluating the efficiency of IS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dita Blazkova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In paper I deal with the possible solution of evaluating the efficiency of information systems in companies. The large number of existing methods used to address the efficiency of information systems is dependent on the subjective responses of the user that may distort output evaluation. Therefore, I propose a method that eliminates the subjective opinion of a user as the primary data source. Applications, which I suggests as part of the method, collects relevant data. In this paper I describe the application in detail. This is a follow-on program on any system that runs parallel with it. The program automatically collects data for evaluation. Data include mainly time data, positions the mouse cursor, printScreens, i-grams of previous, etc. I propose a method of evaluation of the data, which identifies the degree of the friendliness of the information system to the user. Thus, the output of the method is the conclusion whether users, who work with the information system, can handle effectively work with it.

  13. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  14. THE IMPORTANCE OF EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Economies with dominant private ownership and developed market institutions build their prosperity on a firm`s goal function in a form of maximization owner`s wealth. Financial situation of business organization is most important indicate that shows level of financial health. The creation of value for the owners imply two matters simultaneously competitive advantage and the evaluation of economic effects. Among economic activities, establishes the different types of addiction. In this work authors draw attention to two categories: the functional and stochastic. Case studies will be cash flows of investment and the contribution of the stochastic component of the risk of enterprise value. Methodological dominated analytical and descriptive methods. Management in the process of evaluation of investment seen what happens behind the projections of cash flows and estimates of available chances for possible modifications. The purpose of the discussion in this section refers to the warning that the application of the rules of net present values does not mean the completion of the management process at the moment of the decision on the selection of investments. In this study, we analyze the influence of stochastic risk in the creation of enterprise value, especially if the risk is managed improperly. In this connection, the starting hypothesis is that adequately compensate for risk has a positive effect on new investments and reduce the antagonism of shareholders and other creditors of the company.

  15. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  16. Research into real-option evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Wakamatsu, Hitoshi

    2002-03-01

    As an evaluational method for valuation of a corporation, an investment project, a research and development, or the evaluation technique of an enterprise strategy, a real option analysis attracts attention instead of conventional Discount Cash Flow method. The reason is that it can divert the technique for the option valuation in financial engineering to the decision-making process performed according to change in investment environment. Related references, the analysis tools, the application examples, etc. were investigated about the decision-making technique using real option analysis, and this investigation considered the application method to decision-making of the research and development at Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Consequently, since the feature is in real option analysis being the evaluation technique on condition of that business conditions and business itself also change, the real option analysis fits for evaluation of a research and development that business conditions were opaque and it turns out that the businesses are highly flexible. Moreover, it turns out that it fits also for evaluation of a capital concentration type investment issue like power plants. (author)

  17. Veterinary and human vaccine evaluation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight-Jones, T. J. D.; Edmond, K.; Gubbins, S.; Paton, D. J.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the universal importance of vaccines, approaches to human and veterinary vaccine evaluation differ markedly. For human vaccines, vaccine efficacy is the proportion of vaccinated individuals protected by the vaccine against a defined outcome under ideal conditions, whereas for veterinary vaccines the term is used for a range of measures of vaccine protection. The evaluation of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine protection assessed under routine programme conditions, is largely limited to human vaccines. Challenge studies under controlled conditions and sero-conversion studies are widely used when evaluating veterinary vaccines, whereas human vaccines are generally evaluated in terms of protection against natural challenge assessed in trials or post-marketing observational studies. Although challenge studies provide a standardized platform on which to compare different vaccines, they do not capture the variation that occurs under field conditions. Field studies of vaccine effectiveness are needed to assess the performance of a vaccination programme. However, if vaccination is performed without central co-ordination, as is often the case for veterinary vaccines, evaluation will be limited. This paper reviews approaches to veterinary vaccine evaluation in comparison to evaluation methods used for human vaccines. Foot-and-mouth disease has been used to illustrate the veterinary approach. Recommendations are made for standardization of terminology and for rigorous evaluation of veterinary vaccines. PMID:24741009

  18. Evaluation of laboratory diagnostic methods for cryptosporidiosis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The conventional method of modified Ziehl-Neelsen (MZN) is very laborious, and stool ... Objective: This research was set to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of ... 93.1% (MZN to ELISA) with ELISA techniques showing the highest sensitivity at ...

  19. Simplified methods for evaluating road prism stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. Elliot; Mark Ballerini; David Hall

    2003-01-01

    Mass failure is one of the most common failures of low-volume roads in mountainous terrain. Current methods for evaluating stability of these roads require a geotechnical specialist. A stability analysis program, XSTABL, was used to estimate the stability of 3,696 combinations of road geometry, soil, and groundwater conditions. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to...

  20. Método para avaliação do Risco Potencial no âmbito dos Laboratórios Oficiais – Método ARP-LAB / Evaluation Method of Potential Risk under the Official Laboratories: EPR-LAB Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Valverde Macedo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available O homem encontra-se exposto a inúmeros produtos tecnológicos, e dentre eles os medicamentos, que geram riscos cada vez mais próximos do imponderável. Duas áreas, com ampla inclusão em vários campos do conhecimento, permeiam o ambiente dos laboratórios envolvidos no monitoramento da qualidade destes produtos. Estas são a metrologia e o risco. O objetivo deste trabalho foi elaborar um Método para Avaliação do Risco Potencial dos laboratórios onde são realizados ensaios em medicamentos (Método ARP-LAB, minimizando assim os resultados com confiabilidade analítica duvidosa. A metodologia utilizada foi baseada no Modelo de Avaliação de Risco Potencial. A referência técnica foi a RDC 11/12 – ANVISA/MS que, após análise crítica, resultou na elaboração de Indicadores de Controle do Risco (ICR que foram planificados no software Excel®. Como resultado, o Método ARP-LAB apresentou 167 ICR que, apesar do grande número de indicadores, mostrou-se bastante útil, aplicável e de fácil utilização ao ambiente laboratorial. Através dele é possível identificar as categorias das causas associadas ao desvio de cada ICR. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Humans are exposed to numerous technological products, among them are drugs with increasingly varied risks. Two areas of investigation permeate the environment of laboratories involved in monitoring drug quality. These are metrology and risk. The objective of this study was to elaborate an Evaluation Method of Potential Risk (EPR-LAB Method for drug testing laboratories, minimizing analytical results with questionable reliability. The methodology used was based on the Model of Potential Risk Evaluation. The technical reference was the RDC 11/12 - ANVISA / MS. After critical analysis this study resulted in the development of Risk Control Indicators (RCI that were planned in the Excel software. The EPR-LAB Method developed

  1. Methods to Quantify Uncertainty in Human Health Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aurelius, Lea

    1998-01-01

    ...) and other health professionals, such as the Bioenviroumental Engineer, to identify the appropriate use of probabilistic techniques for a site, and the methods by which probabilistic risk assessment...

  2. A Method for Accounting for Risk in Lending

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kobylski, Gerald

    1997-01-01

    ..., or decreased to increase competitiveness? Many lending institutions, specifically furniture retailers, do not use scientific methods for determining their risk of payment defaults on loans to customers...

  3. Evaluation bases for calculation methods in radioecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleck-Neuhaus, J.; Boikat, U.; Franke, B.; Hinrichsen, K.; Hoepfner, U.; Ratka, R.; Steinhilber-Schwab, B.; Teufel, D.; Urbach, M.

    1982-03-01

    The seven contributions in this book deal with the state and problems of radioecology. In particular it analyses: The propagation of radioactive materials in the atmosphere, the transfer of radioactive substances from the soil into plants, respectively from animal feed into meat, the exposure pathways for, and high-risk groups of the population, the uncertainties and the band width of the ingestion factor, as well as the treatment of questions of radioecology in practice. The calculation model is assessed and the difficulty evaluated of laying down data in the general calculation basis. (DG) [de

  4. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  5. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  6. Evaluation of Abiotic Resource LCIA Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo A. F. Alvarenga

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In a life cycle assessment (LCA, the impacts on resources are evaluated at the area of protection (AoP with the same name, through life cycle impact assessment (LCIA methods. There are different LCIA methods available in literature that assesses abiotic resources, and the goal of this study was to propose recommendations for that impact category. We evaluated 19 different LCIA methods, through two criteria (scientific robustness and scope, divided into three assessment levels, i.e., resource accounting methods (RAM, midpoint, and endpoint. In order to support the assessment, we applied some LCIA methods to a case study of ethylene production. For RAM, the most suitable LCIA method was CEENE (Cumulative Exergy Extraction from the Natural Environment (but SED (Solar Energy Demand and ICEC (Industrial Cumulative Exergy Consumption/ECEC (Ecological Cumulative Exergy Consumption may also be recommended, while the midpoint level was ADP (Abiotic Depletion Potential, and the endpoint level was both the Recipe Endpoint and EPS2000 (Environmental Priority Strategies. We could notice that the assessment for the AoP Resources is not yet well established in the LCA community, since new LCIA methods (with different approaches and assessment frameworks are showing up, and this trend may continue in the future.

  7. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  8. Evaluation of Dynamic Methods for Earthwork Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlček Jozef

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of road construction imposes requests on fast and quality methods for earthwork quality evaluation. Dynamic methods are now adopted in numerous civil engineering sections. Especially evaluation of the earthwork quality can be sped up using dynamic equipment. This paper presents the results of the parallel measurements of chosen devices for determining the level of compaction of soils. Measurements were used to develop the correlations between values obtained from various apparatuses. Correlations show that examined apparatuses are suitable for examination of compaction level of fine-grained soils with consideration of boundary conditions of used equipment. Presented methods are quick and results can be obtained immediately after measurement, and they are thus suitable in cases when construction works have to be performed in a short period of time.

  9. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  10. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  11. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-01

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To validate the developed method

  12. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  13. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  14. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  15. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  16. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  17. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  18. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  19. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

  20. Ergonomic lumbar risk analysis of construction workers by NIOSH method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinara Caetano Pereira

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Work in construction has tasks directly connected with manual transport. One of the body segments suffering greater demand in works with these characteristics is the lumbar spine segment. The aim of this study was to analyze the level of risk of lumbar construction workers in the shipment of materials. The sample was composed of 74 construction workers. Were used as a research tool: the NIOSH method for lumbar risk verification expressed by weight limit recommended (WPR and the lifting Index (IL, Visual analogue scale (VAS for the evaluation of pain intensity, the e-1 Corlett.0 for the mapping of the pain and Borg to the subjective perception of the intensity of physical exertion. The present study identified the weight limit (WP of 8.707 for management activity of bags of cement for the load of 8.194 wheelbarrows used. These findings are 6 times under actual weights handled during the activities that revolve around 50 kg with the sacks and averaged 49.72 kg stands with mass. The dimensional settings found in the search are at high risk for ergonomic lumbar region, and measures of reconfiguration of workplaces and operation of auxiliary devices for lifting, transporting and unloading are fundamental, in addition to the need for reflection about the current logistical problems that induce producers to supply the cement sacks with 50 kg.

  1. The concept of attributes and preventions of the variables that influence the pipeline risk in the Muhlbauer Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schafer, Alexandro G. [Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA), Bage, RS (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    There are several methods for the risk assessment and risk management applied to pipelines, among them the Muhlbauer's Method. Muhlbauer is an internationally recognized authority on pipeline risk management. The purpose of this model is to evaluate the public exposure to the risk and identify ways for management that risk in fact. The assessment is made by the attribution of quantitative values to the several items that influences in the pipeline risk. Because the ultimate goal of the risk assessment is to provide a means of risk management, it is sometimes useful to make a distinction between two types of risk variables. The risk evaluator can categorize each index risk variable as either an attribute or a prevention. This paper approaches the subject of the definition of attributes and preventions in the Muhlbauer basic model of risk assessment and also presents a classification of the variables that influence the risk in agreement with those two categories. (author)

  2. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  3. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  4. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc; Bomfim, Joao A S

    2011-01-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  5. Alternative Testing Methods for Predicting Health Risk from Environmental Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Colacci

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Alternative methods to animal testing are considered as promising tools to support the prediction of toxicological risks from environmental exposure. Among the alternative testing methods, the cell transformation assay (CTA appears to be one of the most appropriate approaches to predict the carcinogenic properties of single chemicals, complex mixtures and environmental pollutants. The BALB/c 3T3 CTA shows a good degree of concordance with the in vivo rodent carcinogenesis tests. Whole-genome transcriptomic profiling is performed to identify genes that are transcriptionally regulated by different kinds of exposures. Its use in cell models representative of target organs may help in understanding the mode of action and predicting the risk for human health. Aiming at associating the environmental exposure to health-adverse outcomes, we used an integrated approach including the 3T3 CTA and transcriptomics on target cells, in order to evaluate the effects of airborne particulate matter (PM on toxicological complex endpoints. Organic extracts obtained from PM2.5 and PM1 samples were evaluated in the 3T3 CTA in order to identify effects possibly associated with different aerodynamic diameters or airborne chemical components. The effects of the PM2.5 extracts on human health were assessed by using whole-genome 44 K oligo-microarray slides. Statistical analysis by GeneSpring GX identified genes whose expression was modulated in response to the cell treatment. Then, modulated genes were associated with pathways, biological processes and diseases through an extensive biological analysis. Data derived from in vitro methods and omics techniques could be valuable for monitoring the exposure to toxicants, understanding the modes of action via exposure-associated gene expression patterns and to highlight the role of genes in key events related to adversity.

  6. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  7. The evolution of credit risk: phenomena, methods and management

    OpenAIRE

    George A. Christodoulakis

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes the proceedings of a conference at the Bank of Greece on credit risk. The papers presented focused on innovations in risk management methods which contribute to systemic financial stability, calculation of capital adequacy in financial institutions as well as the validation of credit rating methods in the context of Basel II.

  8. Utilities' nuclear fuel economic evaluation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonz, L.A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents the typical perceptions, methods, considerations, and procedures used by an operating electric utility in the economic evaluation of nuclear fuel preparation and utilization scenarios. The means given are probably not an exclusive review of those available, but are the author's recollection of systems employed to select and recommend preferable courses of action. Economic evaluation of proposed nuclear fuel scenarios is an important, but not exclusive, means of deciding on corporate action. If the economic evaluation is performed and coordinated with the other corporate considerations, such as technical and operational ability, electrical system operations management, tax effects, capital management, rates impact, etc., then the resultant recommendation may be employed to the benefit of the customers and, consequently, to the corporation

  9. Methods of Evaluating Performances for Marketing Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan Cucu

    2005-01-01

    There are specific methods for assessing and improving the effectiveness of a marketing strategy. A marketer should state in the marketing plan what a marketing strategy is supposed to accomplish. These statements should set forth performance standards, which usually are stated in terms of profits, sales, or costs. Actual performance must be measured in similar terms so that comparisons are possible. This paper describes sales analysis and cost analysis, two general ways of evaluating the act...

  10. Assessment methods for the evaluation of vitiligo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alghamdi, K M; Kumar, A; Taïeb, A; Ezzedine, K

    2012-12-01

    There is no standardized method for assessing vitiligo. In this article, we review the literature from 1981 to 2011 on different vitiligo assessment methods. We aim to classify the techniques available for vitiligo assessment as subjective, semi-objective or objective; microscopic or macroscopic; and as based on morphometry or colorimetry. Macroscopic morphological measurements include visual assessment, photography in natural or ultraviolet light, photography with computerized image analysis and tristimulus colorimetry or spectrophotometry. Non-invasive micromorphological methods include confocal laser microscopy (CLM). Subjective methods include clinical evaluation by a dermatologist and a vitiligo disease activity score. Semi-objective methods include the Vitiligo Area Scoring Index (VASI) and point-counting methods. Objective methods include software-based image analysis, tristimulus colorimetry, spectrophotometry and CLM. Morphometry is the measurement of the vitiliginous surface area, whereas colorimetry quantitatively analyses skin colour changes caused by erythema or pigment. Most methods involve morphometry, except for the chromameter method, which assesses colorimetry. Some image analysis software programs can assess both morphometry and colorimetry. The details of these programs (Corel Draw, Image Pro Plus, AutoCad and Photoshop) are discussed in the review. Reflectance confocal microscopy provides real-time images and has great potential for the non-invasive assessment of pigmentary lesions. In conclusion, there is no single best method for assessing vitiligo. This review revealed that VASI, the rule of nine and Wood's lamp are likely to be the best techniques available for assessing the degree of pigmentary lesions and measuring the extent and progression of vitiligo in the clinic and in clinical trials. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

  11. Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1990-02-01

    Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

  12. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  13. A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

    2014-01-01

    Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

  14. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  15. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  16. Usability Evaluation Method for Agile Software Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saad Masood Butt

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Agile methods are the best fit for tremendously growing software industry due to its flexible and dynamic nature. But the software developed using agile methods do meet the usability standards? To answer this question we can see that majority of agile software development projects currently involve interactive user interface designs, which can only be possible by following User Centered Design (UCD in agile methods. The question here is, how to integrate UCD with agile models. Both Agile models and UCD are iterative in nature but agile models focus on coding and development of software; whereas, UCD focuses on user interface of the software. Similarly, both of them have testing features where the agile model involves automated tested code while UCD involves an expert or a user to test the user interface. In this paper, a new agile usability model is proposed and the evaluation is of the proposed model is presented by practically implementing it in three real life projects. . Key results from these projects clearly show: the proposed agile model incorporates usability evaluation methods, improves the relationship between usability experts to work with agile software experts; in addition, allows agile developers to incorporate the result from UCD into subsequent interactions.

  17. A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

    2016-08-01

    Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

  18. Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee

    2018-05-09

    Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.

  19. Development of a transient criticality evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pain, C.C.; Eaton, M.D.; Miles, B.; Ziver, A.K.; Gomes, J.L.M.A.; Umpleby, A.P.; Piggott, M.D.; Goddard, A.J.H.; Oliveira, C.R.E. de

    2005-01-01

    In developing a transient criticality evaluation method we model, in full spatial/temporal detail, the neutron fluxes and consequent power and the evolving material properties - their flows, energies, phase changes etc. These methods are embodied in the generic method FETCH code which is based as far as possible on basic principles and is capable of use in exploring safety-related situations somewhat beyond the range of experiment. FETCH is a general geometry code capable of addressing a range of criticality issues in fissile materials. The code embodies both transient radiation transport and transient fluid dynamics. Work on powders, granular materials, porous media and solutions is reviewed. The capability for modelling transient criticality for chemical plant, waste matrices and advanced reactors is also outlined. (author)

  20. Evaluation of three methods of platelet labelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortelmans, L.; Verbruggen, A.; Roo, M. de; Vermylen, J.

    1986-01-01

    The study of the kinetics of labelled platelets makes sense only when the platelets preserve their viability after separation and labelling. The separation and labelling procedures described in the manual of two producers of 111 In-oxinate (Amersham, Mallinckrodt) have been evaluated by in vitro aggregation tests. The method of Mallinckrodt diminished the aggregation capacities of the thrombocytes. The labelled platelets with normal in vitro aggregation response (Amersham) were tested in vivo in 11 patients who underwent peripheral bypass surgery. The platelet half-life and the platelet accumulation on bypass grafts were checked one week post-operatively. Because of the poor in vivo response of both methods (exponential half-life curve and bad graft visualization), a third method based on that described by W.A. Heaton et al. 1979 was optimized in the authors' laboratory with good in vitro and in vivo results in 12 patients. (author)

  1. Evaluation of three methods of platelet labelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortelmans, L; Verbruggen, A; De Roo, M; Vermylen, J

    1986-07-01

    The study of the kinetics of labelled platelets makes sense only when the platelets preserve their viability after separation and labelling. The separation and labelling procedures described in the manual of two producers of 111In-oxinate (Amersham, Mallinckrodt) have been evaluated by in vitro aggregation tests. The method of Mallinckrodt diminished the aggregation capacities of the thrombocytes. The labelled platelets with normal in vitro aggregation response (Amersham) were tested in vivo in 11 patients who underwent peripheral bypass surgery. The platelet half-life and the platelet accumulation on bypass grafts were checked one week post-operatively. Because of the poor in vivo response of both methods (exponential half-life curve and bad graft visualization), a third method was optimized in our laboratory with good in vitro and in vivo results in 12 patients.

  2. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  3. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vendlinski, Terry P; Munro, Allen; Chung, Gregory K; De la Cruz, Girlie C; Pizzini, Quentin A; Bewley, William L; Stuart, Gale; Baker, Eva L

    2004-01-01

    .... The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used...

  5. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  6. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  7. Noninvasive non Doses Method for Risk Stratification of Breast Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Apollonova

    2014-01-01

    developed technique for the risk stratification.Therefore, the conducted research allows us to conclude that the proposed method to assess the risk group of mammary gland disorders is informative and prospective.The evaluated method of the iridoglyphical research allows us to evaluate the microcirculation dysfunctions in iris’ zones that are neurotrophically linked with vegetative centres of the spinal cord. Thus, the use of iridoglyphical research increases the general sensitivity of the diagnostic process.

  8. Safety evaluations required in the safety regulations for Monju and the validity confirmation of safety evaluation methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The purposes of this study are to perform the safety evaluations of the fast breeder reactor 'Monju' and to confirm the validity of the safety evaluation methods. In JFY 2012, the following results were obtained. As for the development of safety evaluation methods needed in the safety examination achieved for the reactor establishment permission, development of the analysis codes, such as a core damage analysis code, were carried out according to the plan. As for the development of the safety evaluation method needed for the risk informed safety regulation, the quantification technique of the event tree using the Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method (CMMC method) were studied. (author)

  9. LOGISTICS RISK RESEARCH OF PREFABRICATED HOUSE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING BASED ON CREDIBILITY METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Bai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the prefabricated house industry has rapid development,.Because of fewer suppliers, higher demand transport scheme and complex quality test, the risks of construction engineering logistics links are relatively high. Studying how to effectively evaluate the risks of construction engineering logistics links is significant. According to the characteristics of the prefabricated house construction engineering, we analyse the construction engineering logistics risks and use the combined weights method to determine the weight of indexes which contains both subjective and objective factors, to improve the scientific value and the validity of the assessment. Based on credibility measure method, a new logistics risk evaluation model in prefabricated housing is established to estimate the risk during making prefabricated house construction engineering. The presented model can avoid the subjectivity of selecting the membership function and solve the problem of how to comprehensively assess the construction engineering logistics risk in a certain extent.

  10. Development of risk benefit structural design method for innovative reactor plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshio Kamishima; Tai Asayama; Yukio Takahashi; Masanori Tashimo; Hideo Machida; Yomomi Otani; Yasuharu Chuman

    2005-01-01

    The development of innovative nuclear plants where the energy in the future is carried out in Japan. The design method based on a risk benefit of having maintained mitigation of a risk and the improvement in economy is called for, in order to realize the national innovative nuclear plants. Main key technologies of the risk benefit structural design method are crack propagation evaluation technology and structural reliability evaluation technology. This research aims at pulling up these two technologies on an engineering practical use level. In this paper, requirements from the design of typical innovative nuclear plants and research plan are shown.(authors)

  11. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

    2017-09-01

    To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

  12. Development of methods for evaluating active faults

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The report for long-term evaluation of active faults was published by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion on Nov. 2010. After occurrence of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, the safety review guide with regard to geology and ground of site was revised by the Nuclear Safety Commission on Mar. 2012 with scientific knowledges of the earthquake. The Nuclear Regulation Authority established on Sep. 2012 is newly planning the New Safety Design Standard related to Earthquakes and Tsunamis of Light Water Nuclear Power Reactor Facilities. With respect to those guides and standards, our investigations for developing the methods of evaluating active faults are as follows; (1) For better evaluation on activities of offshore fault, we proposed a work flow to date marine terrace (indicator for offshore fault activity) during the last 400,000 years. We also developed the analysis of fault-related fold for evaluating of blind fault. (2) To clarify the activities of active faults without superstratum, we carried out the color analysis of fault gouge and divided the activities into thousand of years and tens of thousands. (3) To reduce uncertainties of fault activities and frequency of earthquakes, we compiled the survey data and possible errors. (4) For improving seismic hazard analysis, we compiled the fault activities of the Yunotake and Itozawa faults, induced by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. (author)

  13. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  14. New method for evaluating liquefaction potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arulmoli, K.; Arulanandan, K.; Seed, H.B.

    1985-01-01

    A new method of indexing the grain and aggregate properties of sand using electrical parameters is described. Correlations are established between these parameters and relative density, D /sub r/ , cyclic stress ratio, /tau//sigma'/sub 0/, and K2 /sub max/ . An electrical probe, used to predict these parameters from in-situ electrical measurements, is described. Evaluations are made of D /sub r/ and /tau//sigma/sub 0/, which are compared with values measured independently from controlled laboratory tests. Reasonable agreement is found between predicted and measured values. The potential applicability of the electrical probe in the field is shown by evaluation of liquefaction and nonliquefaction at sites affected by the 1906 San Francisco, Niigata and Tangshan earthquakes.

  15. Instrumentation and quantitative methods of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.N.; Cooper, M.D.

    1991-01-01

    This report summarizes goals and accomplishments of the research program entitled Instrumentation and Quantitative Methods of Evaluation, during the period January 15, 1989 through July 15, 1991. This program is very closely integrated with the radiopharmaceutical program entitled Quantitative Studies in Radiopharmaceutical Science. Together, they constitute the PROGRAM OF NUCLEAR MEDICINE AND QUANTITATIVE IMAGING RESEARCH within The Franklin McLean Memorial Research Institute (FMI). The program addresses problems involving the basic science and technology that underlie the physical and conceptual tools of radiotracer methodology as they relate to the measurement of structural and functional parameters of physiologic importance in health and disease. The principal tool is quantitative radionuclide imaging. The objective of this program is to further the development and transfer of radiotracer methodology from basic theory to routine clinical practice. The focus of the research is on the development of new instruments and radiopharmaceuticals, and the evaluation of these through the phase of clinical feasibility. 234 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  17. NRC methods for evaluation of industry training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morisseau, D.S.; Koontz, J.L.; Persensky, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    On March 20, 1985, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission published the Policy Statement on Training and Qualification. The Policy Statement endorsed the INPO-managed Training Accreditation Program because it encompasses the five elements of performance-based training. This paper described the multiple methods that the NRC is using to monitor industry efforts to improve training and implement the NRC Policy Statement on Training and Qualification. The results of the evaluation of industry training improvement programs will be reviewed by the Commissioners in April 1987 to determine the nature of continuing NRC policy and programs for ensuring effective training for the US nuclear industry

  18. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  19. Laboratory methods to evaluate therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arteaga de Murphy, C.; Rodriguez-Cortes, J.; Pedraza-Lopez, M.; Ramirez-Iglesias, MT.; Ferro-Flores, G.

    2007-01-01

    The overall aim of this coordinated research project was to develop in vivo and in vitro laboratory methods to evaluate therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals. Towards this end, the laboratory methods used in this study are described in detail. Two peptides - an 8 amino acid minigastrin analogue and octreotate - were labelled with 177 Lu. Bombesin was labelled with 99 mTc, and its diagnostic utility was proven. For comparison, 99 mTc-TOC was used. The cell lines used in this study were AR42J cells, which overexpress somatostatin receptors found in neuroendocrine cancers, and PC3 cells, which overexpress gastric releasing peptide receptors (GRP-r) found in human prostate and breast cancers. The animal model chosen was athymic mice with implanted dorsal tumours of pathologically confirmed cell cancers. The methodology described for labelling, quality control, and in vitro and in vivo assays can be easily used with other radionuclides and other peptides of interest. (author)

  20. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  1. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  2. Systematic evaluation of observational methods assessing biomechanical exposures at work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takala, Esa-Pekka; Irmeli, Pehkonen; Forsman, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    by sorting the methods according to the several items evaluated.   Numerous methods have been developed to assess physical workload (biomechanical exposures) in order to identify hazards leading to musculoskeletal disorders, to monitor the effects of ergonomic changes, and for research. No indvidual method...... between observers Potential users NIOSH Lifting Eq. NA X - O, R Arbouw M - - O ACGIH Lifting TLV M - - O MAC - - M O, W(?) ManTRA - - - O, R(?),W(?) NZ Code for MH - - - O, W(?) Washington state ergonomic rule M X M O, W(?) BackEST ML - M R   Correspondence with valid reference: HM = High to moderate, L......), and Washington state model. MAC (UK), ManTRA (Australia), and New Zealand code are widely used for the assessment of risks in MMH but we did not found formal studies on validity of these methods. The inter-observer repeatability of MAC and the Washington state model has been found to be moderate. Back...

  3. Tsunami risk assessment for facility group over a wide area using inundation assessment method considering energy conservation law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Imamura, Fumihiko; Tokunaga, Takeshi; Sato, Ichiro

    2015-01-01

    We propose a quantitative evaluation method of overall tsunami risk that the entire facility group over a wide area holds. We considerably reduced the calculation cost for tsunami inundation depth by adopting the evaluation method using energy conservation law as compared with the evaluation method using non-linear long wave equation. For financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies with contractors over a wide area and business companies with multiple their assets and facilities in various places, the proposed evaluation method in this study could be a useful approach to implement their risk-based management decisions for tsunami risk. (author)

  4. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  5. Evaluation of Modified Risk Claim Advertising Formats for Camel Snus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fix, Brian V.; Adkison, Sarah E.; O'Connor, Richard J.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Cummings, K. Michael; Rees, Vaughan W.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has regulatory authority for modified risk tobacco product advertising claims. To guide future regulatory efforts, we investigated how variations in modified risk claim advertisements influence consumer perceptions of product risk claims for Camel Snus. Methods: Young people and adults (15-65),…

  6. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  7. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  8. Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potakhin S.N.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

  9. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  10. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Application of the Bow Tie method for evaluation of safety in the procedure of logging wells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfonso Pallares, C; Perez Reyes, Y.; Sarabia Molina, I.I.

    2013-01-01

    This work consists of an assessment of security in the practice of logging of oil wells, using the method of Bow Tie for being a simple method of evaluation of the risk, which makes it possible in a structured way to set priorities to manage risk

  12. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  13. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  14. Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

    2014-01-01

    The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

  15. Development of methods for evaluating active faults

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-08-15

    The HERP report for long-term evaluation of active faults and the NSC safety review guide with regard to geology and ground of site were published on Nov. 2010 and on Dec. 2010, respectively. With respect to those reports, our investigation is as follows; (1) For assessment of seismic hazard, we estimated seismic sources around NPPs based on information of tectonic geomorphology, earthquake distribution and subsurface geology. (2) For evaluation on the activity of blind fault, we calculated the slip rate on the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake fault, using information on late Quaternary fluvial terraces. (3) To evaluate the magnitude of earthquakes whose sources are difficult to identify, we proposed a new method for calculation of the seismogenic layer thickness. (4) To clarify the activities of active faults without superstratum, we carried out the color analysis of fault gouge and divided the activities into thousand of years and tens of thousands. (5) For improving chronology of sediments, we detected new widespread cryptotephras using mineral chemistry and developed late Quaternary cryptotephrostratigraphy around NPPs. (author)

  16. Risk assessment methods for life cycle costing in buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oduyemi Olufolahan

    2016-01-01

    Originality/value. This paper contributes with new outlooks aimed at assessing the current level of awareness, usage and advocated benefits of risk assessment methods in LCC and adds to the limited empirical studies on risk assessment to corporate occupants and decision makers.

  17. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  18. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  19. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  20. OPERATIONAL RISK IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS: TAXONOMY AND ASSESSMENT METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinoiu Ana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at presenting the classifications and the assessment methods for operational risk according to international regulations (ie. Basel 2, in the context of its importance as a managerial tool for international business. Considering the growin

  1. An analytical method of estimating Value-at-Risk on the Belgrade Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obadović Milica D.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents market risk evaluation for a portfolio consisting of shares that are continuously traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, by applying the Value-at-Risk model - the analytical method. It describes the manner of analytical method application and compares the results obtained by implementing this method at different confidence levels. Method verification was carried out on the basis of the failure rate that demonstrated the confidence level for which this method was acceptable in view of the given conditions.

  2. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  3. Promoting physical activity and health literacy: study protocol for a longitudinal, mixed methods evaluation of a cross-provider workplace-related intervention in Germany (The AtRisk study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, Andrea; Dejonghe, Lea; Alayli-Goebbels, Adrienne; Biallas, Bianca; Froboese, Ingo

    2016-07-22

    Physical activity and health literacy are topics of utmost importance in the prevention of chronic diseases. The present article describes the study protocol for evaluating a cross-provider workplace-related intervention promoting physical activity and health literacy. The RE-AIM Framework will be the conceptual framework of the AtRisk study. A controlled natural experiment and a qualitative study will be conducted. The cross-provider intervention is based on the cooperation of the German Pension Fund Rhineland and cooperating German Statutory Health Insurances. It combines two components: a behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention and the assignment of a health coach. The single-provider intervention only includes the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention. The quantitative study (natural experiment) encompasses three measuring points (T0 = start of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (baseline); T1 = end of the behavior-oriented lifestyle intervention (16 weeks); T2 = 6 month follow-up) and will compare the effectiveness of the cross-provider workplace-related intervention compared with the single provider intervention. Participants are employees with health related risk factors. ANCOVA will be used to evaluate the effect of the intervention on the outcome variables leisure time physical (primary outcome) activity and health literacy (secondary outcome). The qualitative study comprises semi-structured interviews, systematic field notes of stakeholder meetings and document analyses. The AtRisk study will contribute towards the claim for cross-provider interventions and workplace-related approaches described in the new Preventive Health Care Act. The results of this study will inform providers, payers and policy makers about the effectiveness of a cross-provider workplace-related lifestyle intervention compared to a single-provider intervention. Beyond, the study will identify challenges for implementing cross-provider preventive

  4. Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, P.K.; Joekes, K.; Elwyn, G.; Mazor, K.M.; Thomson, R.; Sedgwick, P.; Ibison, J.; Wong, J.B.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. METHODS: A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental

  5. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  6. The Comparison of Matching Methods Using Different Measures of Balance: Benefits and Risks Exemplified within a Study to Evaluate the Effects of German Disease Management Programs on Long-Term Outcomes of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Birgit; Pöhlmann, Boris; Krohn, Robert; Adams, John L; Gerlach, Ferdinand M; Erler, Antje

    2016-10-01

    To present a case study on how to compare various matching methods applying different measures of balance and to point out some pitfalls involved in relying on such measures. Administrative claims data from a German statutory health insurance fund covering the years 2004-2008. We applied three different covariance balance diagnostics to a choice of 12 different matching methods used to evaluate the effectiveness of the German disease management program for type 2 diabetes (DMPDM2). We further compared the effect estimates resulting from applying these different matching techniques in the evaluation of the DMPDM2. The choice of balance measure leads to different results on the performance of the applied matching methods. Exact matching methods performed well across all measures of balance, but resulted in the exclusion of many observations, leading to a change of the baseline characteristics of the study sample and also the effect estimate of the DMPDM2. All PS-based methods showed similar effect estimates. Applying a higher matching ratio and using a larger variable set generally resulted in better balance. Using a generalized boosted instead of a logistic regression model showed slightly better performance for balance diagnostics taking into account imbalances at higher moments. Best practice should include the application of several matching methods and thorough balance diagnostics. Applying matching techniques can provide a useful preprocessing step to reveal areas of the data that lack common support. The use of different balance diagnostics can be helpful for the interpretation of different effect estimates found with different matching methods. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  7. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  8. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  9. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  10. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  11. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  12. Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

    2015-01-01

    The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

  13. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  14. A new method to evaluate human-robot system performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, G.; Weisbin, C. R.

    2003-01-01

    One of the key issues in space exploration is that of deciding what space tasks are best done with humans, with robots, or a suitable combination of each. In general, human and robot skills are complementary. Humans provide as yet unmatched capabilities to perceive, think, and act when faced with anomalies and unforeseen events, but there can be huge potential risks to human safety in getting these benefits. Robots provide complementary skills in being able to work in extremely risky environments, but their ability to perceive, think, and act by themselves is currently not error-free, although these capabilities are continually improving with the emergence of new technologies. Substantial past experience validates these generally qualitative notions. However, there is a need for more rigorously systematic evaluation of human and robot roles, in order to optimize the design and performance of human-robot system architectures using well-defined performance evaluation metrics. This article summarizes a new analytical method to conduct such quantitative evaluations. While the article focuses on evaluating human-robot systems, the method is generally applicable to a much broader class of systems whose performance needs to be evaluated.

  15. Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

    1992-10-01

    Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

  16. Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

    2017-07-01

    A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

  18. [Evaluation of risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahas, Eliana Aguiar Petri; Omodei, Michelle Sako; Cangussu, Luciana Mendes; Nahas-Neto, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    It was to evaluate the frequency and the risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 women (age: 45-65 years and amenorrhea >12 months) with time since menopause fall was identified as an unexpected unintentional change in position which causes an individual to remain in a lower level in relation to the initial position. The history of self-reported falls during the previous 24 months, and clinical and anthropometric data (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)) and bone densitometric measures were analyzed. For statistical analysis, c² trend test and the logistic regression method (odds ratio (OR)) were used for the comparison between groups of women with and without falls. Of the 358 women, 48.0% (172/358) had a history of falls and 17.4% (30/172) had fractures. The fall occurred indoors (at home) in 58.7% (101/172). The mean age was 53.7 ± 6.5 years, time since menopause 5.8 ± 3.5 years, BMI 28.3 ± 4.6 kg/m² and WC 89.0 ± 11.4 cm. There were differences as the occurrence of smoking and diabetes, with greater frequency among fallers vs. non-fallers, 25.6 versus 16.1% and 12.8 versus 5.9%, respectively (prisk of falls in the presence of influential variables, it was observed that risk increased with current smoking status (OR 1.93; 95%CI 1.01-3.71), whereas other clinical and anthropometric variables did not influence this risk. In early postmenopausal women there was higher frequency of falls. Current smoking was clinical indicators of risk for falls. With the recognition of factors for falling, preventive measures become important, as the orientation of abolishing smoking.

  19. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  20. A human-machine interface evaluation method: A difficulty evaluation method in information searching (DEMIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2009-01-01

    A human-machine interface (HMI) evaluation method, which is named 'difficulty evaluation method in information searching (DEMIS)', is proposed and demonstrated with an experimental study. The DEMIS is based on a human performance model and two measures of attentional-resource effectiveness in monitoring and detection tasks in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Operator competence and HMI design are modeled to be most significant factors to human performance. One of the two effectiveness measures is fixation-to-importance ratio (FIR) which represents attentional resource (eye fixations) spent on an information source compared to importance of the information source. The other measure is selective attention effectiveness (SAE) which incorporates FIRs for all information sources. The underlying principle of the measures is that the information source should be selectively attended to according to its informational importance. In this study, poor performance in information searching tasks is modeled to be coupled with difficulties caused by poor mental models of operators or/and poor HMI design. Human performance in information searching tasks is evaluated by analyzing the FIR and the SAE. Operator mental models are evaluated by a questionnaire-based method. Then difficulties caused by a poor HMI design are evaluated by a focused interview based on the FIR evaluation and then root causes leading to poor performance are identified in a systematic way.

  1. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  2. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  3. Evaluation of determinative methods for sodium impurities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molinari, Marcelo; Guido, Osvaldo; Botbol, Jose; Ares, Osvaldo

    1988-01-01

    Sodium, universally accepted as heat transfer fluid in fast breeder reactors, requires a special technology for every operation involved in any applicable methodology, due to its well known chemical reactivity. The purpose of this work is: a) to study the sources and effects of chemical species which, as traces, accompany sodium used in the nuclear field; b) to classify, taking into account, the present requirements and resources of the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA), the procedures found in the literature for determination of the most important impurities which exist in experimental liquid sodium systems and c) to describe the principles of the methods and to evaluate them in order to make a selection. It was concluded the convenience to develop, as a first stage, laboratory procedures to determine carbon, oxygen, hydrogen and non-volatile impurities, which besides serving present needs, will be referential for direct methods with undeferred response. The latter are needed in liquid sodium experimental loops and require, primarily, more complex and extended development. Additionally, a description is made of experimental work performed up-to-now in this laboratory, consisting of a transfer device for sodium sampling and a sodium distillation device, adapted from a previous design, with associated vacuum and inert gas systems. It is intended as a separative technique for indirect determination of oxygen and non-volatile impurities. (Author) [es

  4. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  5. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  6. The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

  7. Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, George; Perkins, Casey J.; Lancaster, Mary J.; MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Patrick, Scott W.; Key, Bradley Robert

    2015-07-28

    Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture are described. According to one aspect, a computer-implemented security evaluation method includes accessing information regarding a physical architecture and a cyber architecture of a facility, building a model of the facility comprising a plurality of physical areas of the physical architecture, a plurality of cyber areas of the cyber architecture, and a plurality of pathways between the physical areas and the cyber areas, identifying a target within the facility, executing the model a plurality of times to simulate a plurality of attacks against the target by an adversary traversing at least one of the areas in the physical domain and at least one of the areas in the cyber domain, and using results of the executing, providing information regarding a security risk of the facility with respect to the target.

  8. [Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.

  9. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  10. Evaluation of bullying in persons with different risk for psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasić Jelena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emerging research suggests that being exposed to bullying during childhood can increase the risk of psychotic experiences in adulthood. Aggressive peer relations among adolescents are more frequent in boys, both for being victims or perpetrators. Aim: To evaluate whether bullying was more prevalent among Serbian clinical population of patients with psychosis in comparison to their healthy siblings and controls, and to analyze gender differences regarding bullying. Material and methods: This cross-sectional study evaluated schizophrenia spectrum patients (n = 52, age = 29.3 ± 5.9 yrs, in remission, illness duration <10 yrs, their healthy siblings (n = 55, age = 28.6 ± 6.8 yrs and controls (n=50, age=25.3±1.5 yrs. The subjects fulfilled the bullying questionnaire, five item self-rating scale. Descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney nonparametric test were used to analyze the data. Results: Compared to their healthy siblings, the patients were more likely to report that they were bullied (patients: 7.0 ± 3.5, siblings: 5.2 ± 2.0, p = 0.000, but patients also bullied others more (patients: 1.4 ± 0.8, siblings: 1.1 ± 0.4, p = 0.02. Comparing the group of patients and controls, we did not find statistically significant difference in any category. The male gender brings higher risk of being physically bullied which has been proven for all examined groups (patients- p = 0.03, controls and siblings- p = 0.00. Conclusion: Aggressive peer relations possibly contribute to the evolution of psychosis, as they were more prevalent in patients in comparison to their healthy siblings, particularly in males. Improved prevention of bullying and use of treatments against its psychological consequences might be one of the possible methods to ameliorate the course of psychosis.

  11. Evaluation of methods to assess physical activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leenders, Nicole Y. J. M.

    Epidemiological evidence has accumulated that demonstrates that the amount of physical activity-related energy expenditure during a week reduces the incidence of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, and all-cause mortality. To further understand the amount of daily physical activity and related energy expenditure that are necessary to maintain or improve the functional health status and quality of life, instruments that estimate total (TDEE) and physical activity-related energy expenditure (PAEE) under free-living conditions should be determined to be valid and reliable. Without evaluation of the various methods that estimate TDEE and PAEE with the doubly labeled water (DLW) method in females there will be eventual significant limitations on assessing the efficacy of physical activity interventions on health status in this population. A triaxial accelerometer (Tritrac-R3D, (TT)), an uniaxial (Computer Science and Applications Inc., (CSA)) activity monitor, a Yamax-Digiwalker-500sp°ler , (YX-stepcounter), by measuring heart rate responses (HR method) and a 7-d Physical Activity Recall questionnaire (7-d PAR) were compared with the "criterion method" of DLW during a 7-d period in female adults. The DLW-TDEE was underestimated on average 9, 11 and 15% using 7-d PAR, HR method and TT. The underestimation of DLW-PAEE by 7-d PAR was 21% compared to 47% and 67% for TT and YX-stepcounter. Approximately 56% of the variance in DLW-PAEE*kgsp{-1} is explained by the registration of body movement with accelerometry. A larger proportion of the variance in DLW-PAEE*kgsp{-1} was explained by jointly incorporating information from the vertical and horizontal movement measured with the CSA and Tritrac-R3D (rsp2 = 0.87). Although only a small amount of variance in DLW-PAEE*kgsp{-1} is explained by the number of steps taken per day, because of its low cost and ease of use, the Yamax-stepcounter is useful in studies promoting daily walking. Thus, studies involving the

  12. Digital image envelope: method and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H. K.; Cao, Fei; Zhou, Michael Z.; Mogel, Greg T.; Liu, Brent J.; Zhou, Xiaoqiang

    2003-05-01

    Health data security, characterized in terms of data privacy, authenticity, and integrity, is a vital issue when digital images and other patient information are transmitted through public networks in telehealth applications such as teleradiology. Mandates for ensuring health data security have been extensively discussed (for example The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, HIPAA) and health informatics guidelines (such as the DICOM standard) are beginning to focus on issues of data continue to be published by organizing bodies in healthcare; however, there has not been a systematic method developed to ensure data security in medical imaging Because data privacy and authenticity are often managed primarily with firewall and password protection, we have focused our research and development on data integrity. We have developed a systematic method of ensuring medical image data integrity across public networks using the concept of the digital envelope. When a medical image is generated regardless of the modality, three processes are performed: the image signature is obtained, the DICOM image header is encrypted, and a digital envelope is formed by combining the signature and the encrypted header. The envelope is encrypted and embedded in the original image. This assures the security of both the image and the patient ID. The embedded image is encrypted again and transmitted across the network. The reverse process is performed at the receiving site. The result is two digital signatures, one from the original image before transmission, and second from the image after transmission. If the signatures are identical, there has been no alteration of the image. This paper concentrates in the method and evaluation of the digital image envelope.

  13. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  14. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  15. Risk Assessment Method of UHV AC/DC Power System under Serious Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishang Long

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of risk assessment, the risk assessment method for an ultra-high voltage (UHV AC/DC hybrid power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering the whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed, and the whole process risk assessment model is established considering the loss of both fault stage and recovery stage based on Monte Carlo method and BPA software. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system is proposed from the aspects of power system structure, fault state and economic loss, and the quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out by an entropy weight model. Finally, the risk assessment of two UHV planning schemes are carried out and compared, which proves the effectiveness of the research work.

  16. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  17. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  18. Evaluation of mercury speciation by EPA (Draft) Method 29

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laudal, D.L.; Heidt, M.K. [Energy & Environmental Research Center, Grand Forks, ND (United States); Nott, B. [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments require that the U.S. Environmental protection Agency (EPA) assess the health risks associated with mercury emissions. Also, the law requires a separate assessment of health risks posed by the emission of 189 tract chemicals (including mercury) for electric utility steam-generating units. In order to conduct a meaningful assessment of health and environmental effects, we must have, among other things, a reliable and accurate method to measure mercury emissions. In addition, the rate of mercury deposition and the type of control strategies used may depend upon the type of mercury emitted (i.e., whether it is in the oxidized or elemental form). It has been speculated that EPA (Draft) Method 29 can speciate mercury by selective absorption; however, this claim has yet to be proven. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have contracted with the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) at University of North Dakota to evaluate EPA (Draft) Method 29 at the pilot-scale level. The objective of the work is to determine whether EPA (Draft) Method 29 can reliably quantify and speciate mercury in the flue gas from coal-fired boilers.

  19. Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

    2015-03-01

    A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

  20. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  1. Development of evaluation method for software safety analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, H.; Tu, W.; Shih, C.; Chen, C.; Yang, W.; Yih, S.; Kuo, C.; Chen, M.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Following the massive adoption of digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system for nuclear power plant (NPP), various Software Safety Analysis (SSA) techniques are used to evaluate the NPP safety for adopting appropriate digital I and C system, and then to reduce risk to acceptable level. However, each technique has its specific advantage and disadvantage. If the two or more techniques can be complementarily incorporated, the SSA combination would be more acceptable. As a result, if proper evaluation criteria are available, the analyst can then choose appropriate technique combination to perform analysis on the basis of resources. This research evaluated the applicable software safety analysis techniques nowadays, such as, Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Markov chain modeling, Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM), and simulation-based model analysis; and then determined indexes in view of their characteristics, which include dynamic capability, completeness, achievability, detail, signal/ noise ratio, complexity, and implementation cost. These indexes may help the decision makers and the software safety analysts to choose the best SSA combination arrange their own software safety plan. By this proposed method, the analysts can evaluate various SSA combinations for specific purpose. According to the case study results, the traditional PHA + FMEA + FTA (with failure rate) + Markov chain modeling (without transfer rate) combination is not competitive due to the dilemma for obtaining acceptable software failure rates. However, the systematic architecture of FTA and Markov chain modeling is still valuable for realizing the software fault structure. The system centric techniques, such as DFM and Simulation-based model analysis, show the advantage on dynamic capability, achievability, detail, signal/noise ratio. However, their disadvantage are the completeness complexity

  2. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  3. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  4. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  5. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  6. A method for minimum risk portfolio optimization under hybrid uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egorova, Yu E.; Yazenin, A. V.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we investigate a minimum risk portfolio model under hybrid uncertainty when the profitability of financial assets is described by fuzzy random variables. According to Feng, the variance of a portfolio is defined as a crisp value. To aggregate fuzzy information the weakest (drastic) t-norm is used. We construct an equivalent stochastic problem of the minimum risk portfolio model and specify the stochastic penalty method for solving it.

  7. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  8. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  9. SEAM PUCKERING EVALUATION METHOD FOR SEWING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRAD Raluca

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an automated method for the assessment and classification of puckering defects detected during the preproduction control stage of the sewing machine or product inspection. In this respect, we have presented the possible causes and remedies of the wrinkle nonconformities. Subjective factors related to the control environment and operators during the seams evaluation can be reduced using an automated system whose operation is based on image processing. Our implementation involves spectral image analysis using Fourier transform and an unsupervised neural network, the Kohonen Map, employed to classify material specimens, the input images, into five discrete degrees of quality, from grade 5 (best to grade 1 (the worst. The puckering features presented in the learning and test images have been pre-classified using the seam puckering quality standard. The network training stage will consist in presenting five input vectors (derived from the down-sampled arrays, representing the puckering grades. The puckering classification consists in providing an input vector derived from the image supposed to be classified. A scalar product between the input values vectors and the weighted training images is computed. The result will be assigned to one of the five classes of which the input image belongs. Using the Kohonen network the puckering defects were correctly classified in proportion of 71.42%.

  10. Evaluation method of nuclear nonproliferation credibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Eun-ha; Ko, Won Il

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an integrated multicriteria analysis method for the quantitative evaluation of a state's nuclear nonproliferation credibility level. Underscoring the implications of policy on the sources of political demand for nuclear weapons rather than focusing on efforts to restrict the supply of specific weapons technology from the 'haves' to the 'have-nots', the proposed methodology considers the political, social, and cultural dimensions of nuclear proliferation. This methodology comprises three steps: (1) identifying the factors that influence credibility formation and employing them to construct a criteria tree that will illustrate the relationships among these factors; (2) defining the weight coefficients of each criterion through pairwise comparisons of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); and (3) assigning numerical scores to a state under each criterion and combining them with the weight coefficients in order to provide an overall assessment of the state. The functionality of this methodology is examined by assessing the current level of nuclear nonproliferation credibility of four countries: Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Switzerland.

  11. Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1983-01-01

    Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

  12. [Legal and methodical aspects of occupational risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Legal and methodical aspects of occupational risk management (ORM) are considered with account of new official documents. Introduction of risk and risk management notions into Labor Code reflects the change of forms of occupational health and safety. The role of hygienist and occupational medicine professionals in workplace conditions certification (WCC) and periodical medical examinations (PME) is strengthened. The ORM could be improved by introducing the block of prognosis and causation based on IT-technologies that could match systems of WCC and PME thus improving the effectiveness of prophylactics.

  13. Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

  14. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  15. MONTE CARLO METHOD AND APPLICATION IN @RISK SIMULATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Ižaríková

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is an example of using the software simulation @Risk designed for simulation in Microsoft Excel spread sheet, demonstrated the possibility of its usage in order to show a universal method of solving problems. The simulation is experimenting with computer models based on the real production process in order to optimize the production processes or the system. The simulation model allows performing a number of experiments, analysing them, evaluating, optimizing and afterwards applying the results to the real system. A simulation model in general is presenting modelling system by using mathematical formulations and logical relations. In the model is possible to distinguish controlled inputs (for instance investment costs and random outputs (for instance demand, which are by using a model transformed into outputs (for instance mean value of profit. In case of a simulation experiment at the beginning are chosen controlled inputs and random (stochastic outputs are generated randomly. Simulations belong into quantitative tools, which can be used as a support for a decision making.

  16. Quantitative Methods to Evaluate Timetable Attractiveness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schittenhelm, Bernd; Landex, Alex

    2009-01-01

    The article describes how the attractiveness of timetables can be evaluated quantitatively to ensure a consistent evaluation of timetables. Since the different key stakeholders (infrastructure manager, train operating company, customers, and society) have different opinions on what an attractive...

  17. Multidisciplinary eHealth Survey Evaluation Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karras, Bryant T.; Tufano, James T.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the development process of an evaluation framework for describing and comparing web survey tools. We believe that this approach will help shape the design, development, deployment, and evaluation of population-based health interventions. A conceptual framework for describing and evaluating web survey systems will enable the…

  18. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  19. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  20. Effectiveness evaluation of contingency sum as a risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... manage risks prone projects have adopted several methods, one of which is contingency sum. ... initial project cost, cost overrun and percentage allowed for contingency.

  1. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  2. Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Szpyrka

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

  3. SU-F-T-202: An Evaluation Method of Lifetime Attributable Risk for Comparing Between Proton Beam Therapy and Intensity Modulated X-Ray Therapy for Pediatric Cancer Patients by Averaging Four Dose-Response Models for Carcinoma Induction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamura, M; Shirato, H [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido (Japan); Ito, Y [Department of Biostatistics, Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido (Japan); Sakurai, H; Mizumoto, M; Kamizawa, S [Proton Medical Research Center, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Murayama, S; Yamashita, H [Proton Therapy Division, Shizuoka Cancer Center Hospital, Nagaizumi, Shizuoka (Japan); Takao, S; Suzuki, R [Department of Medical Physics, Hokkaido University Hospital, Sapporo, Hokkaido (Japan)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To examine how much lifetime attributable risk (LAR) as an in silico surrogate marker of radiation-induced secondary cancer would be lowered by using proton beam therapy (PBT) in place of intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT) in pediatric patients. Methods: From 242 pediatric patients with cancers who were treated with PBT, 26 patients were selected by random sampling after stratification into four categories: a) brain, head, and neck, b) thoracic, c) abdominal, and d) whole craniospinal (WCNS) irradiation. IMXT was re-planned using the same computed tomography and region of interest. Using dose volume histogram (DVH) of PBT and IMXT, the LAR of Schneider et al. was calculated for the same patient. The published four dose-response models for carcinoma induction: i) full model, ii) bell-shaped model, iii) plateau model, and ix) linear model were tested for organs at risk. In the case that more than one dose-response model was available, the LAR for this patient was calculated by averaging LAR for each dose-response model. Results: Calculation of the LARs of PBT and IMXT based on DVH was feasible for all patients. The mean±standard deviation of the cumulative LAR difference between PBT and IMXT for the four categories was a) 0.77±0.44% (n=7, p=0.0037), b) 23.1±17.2%,(n=8, p=0.0067), c) 16.4±19.8% (n=8, p=0.0525), and d) 49.9±21.2% (n=3, p=0.0275, one tailed t-test), respectively. The LAR was significantly lower by PBT than IMXT for the the brain, head, and neck region, thoracic region, and whole craniospinal irradiation. Conclusion: In pediatric patients who had undergone PBT, the LAR of PBT was significantly lower than the LAR of IMXT estimated by in silico modeling. This method was suggested to be useful as an in silico surrogate marker of secondary cancer induced by different radiotherapy techniques. This research was supported by the Translational Research Network Program, JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 15H04768 and the Global Institution for

  4. SU-F-T-202: An Evaluation Method of Lifetime Attributable Risk for Comparing Between Proton Beam Therapy and Intensity Modulated X-Ray Therapy for Pediatric Cancer Patients by Averaging Four Dose-Response Models for Carcinoma Induction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, M; Shirato, H; Ito, Y; Sakurai, H; Mizumoto, M; Kamizawa, S; Murayama, S; Yamashita, H; Takao, S; Suzuki, R

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To examine how much lifetime attributable risk (LAR) as an in silico surrogate marker of radiation-induced secondary cancer would be lowered by using proton beam therapy (PBT) in place of intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT) in pediatric patients. Methods: From 242 pediatric patients with cancers who were treated with PBT, 26 patients were selected by random sampling after stratification into four categories: a) brain, head, and neck, b) thoracic, c) abdominal, and d) whole craniospinal (WCNS) irradiation. IMXT was re-planned using the same computed tomography and region of interest. Using dose volume histogram (DVH) of PBT and IMXT, the LAR of Schneider et al. was calculated for the same patient. The published four dose-response models for carcinoma induction: i) full model, ii) bell-shaped model, iii) plateau model, and ix) linear model were tested for organs at risk. In the case that more than one dose-response model was available, the LAR for this patient was calculated by averaging LAR for each dose-response model. Results: Calculation of the LARs of PBT and IMXT based on DVH was feasible for all patients. The mean±standard deviation of the cumulative LAR difference between PBT and IMXT for the four categories was a) 0.77±0.44% (n=7, p=0.0037), b) 23.1±17.2%,(n=8, p=0.0067), c) 16.4±19.8% (n=8, p=0.0525), and d) 49.9±21.2% (n=3, p=0.0275, one tailed t-test), respectively. The LAR was significantly lower by PBT than IMXT for the the brain, head, and neck region, thoracic region, and whole craniospinal irradiation. Conclusion: In pediatric patients who had undergone PBT, the LAR of PBT was significantly lower than the LAR of IMXT estimated by in silico modeling. This method was suggested to be useful as an in silico surrogate marker of secondary cancer induced by different radiotherapy techniques. This research was supported by the Translational Research Network Program, JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 15H04768 and the Global Institution for

  5. Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2004-06-01

    The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model

  6. Methods of marketing and advertising activity evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.I. Yakovlev

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The result of the business entities’ activities is associated with the development of instruments of the economic processes efficiency determination, including marketing activities. It has determined the purpose of the article. The methodological principles in this area are developed. It is proved that the increase in sales of the profit margin is only partly dependent on the implementation of advertising measures. The methodical approaches for estimation of exhibition and advertising activity and promotion of its employees are specified. The results of work involve evaluation of the advertising effect value on the basis of share of the advertising impact on the increase of sales and revenue from the sale of products. The corresponding proportion of such impact is determined based on the consumer inquiry. The index of trade fair works, its calculation based on two components: how many times a specific company participated in such events; and how well the company was presented at relevant trade fairs. The indices of the cost on advertising and promotion of certain products manufacturer are provided. The scientific innovation of the research is as follows. It is proved that the sales increase effect should not be assigned to advertising only. The compositions that influence the consumer preferences and their share in the total value effect are determined. The new is the proposed index of influence of the trade fair work results depending on the selected factors. The practical importance of the research results involve more accurate calculation of the effect of the activities made and, consequently, increase efficiency of the business entities.

  7. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  8. Risk assessment in a foundry unit by energy trace and barrier analysis method (ETBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Ayati

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and aimsAs a Development of Industrial process, human, environment,equipment, material and validity of system has been exposed to hazardous conditions. Regards of32.3 percent of occupations in industries, this study focused on risk assessment of foundry unit byenergy trace and barrier analysis (ETBA method and presented approaches to control of accident.Methodsthe recent study is as a case study one to risk assessment in a foundry unit in Qazvinindustrial city in1387. In this study risks were founded by ETBA method and evaluated by MILSTD-882B. Data were collected by direct observations, interview with workers and supervisorand engineers, walking-talking through method, documents investigation of operationalprocessors, preventive maintenances, equipment technical properties, accidental and medicaldocuments. Finally ETBA worksheets completed.Findingstotally 154 risks has been found. 40 from total are been unacceptable risk, 68unfavorable and also 46 acceptable but with remediation action. Casting workshop had risks morethan other workshops (with 74 identified risks.Potential and heat energies were founded as mosthazardous energies, with respectively 51 and 38 risk cases.ConclusionThis study recommended to be done actions for identification and control risk,such as: safety training, occupation training, preventive maintenance, contract safety, safetycommunication and safety audit group.

  9. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  10. Development of environmental risk assessment framework using index method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.W.; Wu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a newly developed framework for assessing the risk from events which are considered to be major accidents to the environment according to the classifications by the United Kingdom Department of Environment (DoE). The application of an environmental risk assessment framework using the newly developed index method is demonstrated by means of a case study. The framework makes use of Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) method by the United Kingdom AEA Technology for releases to river, but improves it by taking account to toxic dose rather than concentration; taking account of long-term effects including persistence and bio accumulation, not just short term effects; extending the method to all aspects of environment, not just rivers; and allowing account to be taken of design changes to mitigate the risk. The development of the framework has also led to a revision of the tolerability criteria to be used with the framework proposed earlier by weakness and recommend further work to improve this newly proposed environmental risk assessment framework. From the study, it is recommended that the environmental risk assessment framework be applied to a wide range of other case studies in order to further improve it. The framework should be modified to maintain consistency when the DoE revises its definitions of major accidents to the environment. Ease-of-use of the framework (and any other environmental framework) would be aided by the compilation of databases for environmental toxicity, river data and available consequence models. Further work could also be done to suggest methods of mitigating the risk and including them as numerical factors within method. (author)

  11. Cancer risks, risk-cost-benefit analyses, and the scientific method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Two main changes in risk analysis are increasingly beginning to influence the manner in which, in the perception of scientists, low-dose modeling of radiation carcinogenesis is supposed to be done. In the past, efforts to model radiation risks have been carried out under the banner of scientific endeavors. On closer inspection, however, it has become obvious that these efforts were not guided by the scientific method and that a change in approach is needed. We realize increasingly that risk analysis is not done in a vacuum and that any action taken due to the result of the analysis not only has a benefit in the form of a risk reduction but leads inevitably to an increase in cost and an increase in the risks of persons effecting the benefit. Thus, a risk-cost-benefit analysis should be done and show a clear-cut net benefit before a remedial action is taken

  12. Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

    2018-03-01

    Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

  13. Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Cherniavska

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.

  14. INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

    1980-08-01

    This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

  15. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  16. Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

    1975-01-01

    Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

  17. Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2012-08-16

    This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

  18. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  19. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  20. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  1. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  2. A New Method for Spatial Health Risk Assessment of Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Sakizadeh*

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The area of contaminated lands exposed to the health risk of environmental pollutants is a matter of argument. In this study, a new method was developed to estimate the amount of area that is exposed to higher than normal levels of Cr, Mn, and V. Methods: Overall, 170 soil samples were collected from the upper 10 cm of soil in an arid area in central part of Iran in Semnan Province. The values of Cr, Mn, and V were detected by ICP-OES technique. A geostatistical method known as sequential Gaussian co-simulation was applied to consider the spatial risk of these toxic elements. Results: The moderate spatial dependence of Cr indicates the contribution of both intrinsic and extrinsic factor to the levels of this heavy metal in the study area, whereas, Mn and V can be attributed to intrinsic factors (such as lithology. There has not been any significant influence due to agricultural practices on the Cr values in the region. The surface of contaminated area for manganese, produced by risk curve on surface method, was higher than chromium and vanadium. Conclusion: The produced risk curves as rendered in this study can be adopted in similar studies to help managers to estimate the total area that requires cleanup action.

  3. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  4. Research on psychological evaluation method for nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Xiang; He Xuhong; Zhao Bingquan

    2007-01-01

    The qualitative and quantitative psychology evaluation methods to the nuclear power plant operators were analyzed and discussed in the paper. The comparison analysis to the scope and result of application was carried out between method of outline figure fitted and method of fuzzy synthetic evaluation. The research results can be referenced to the evaluation of nuclear power plant operators. (authors)

  5. Risk management for engineering projects procedures, methods and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Munier, Nolberto

    2014-01-01

    Many people see risk in engineering projects as an imprecise and nebulous problem - something that exists, is feared and is impossible to deal with. Nothing could be further from the truth. While risk is certainly ubiquitous, sometimes difficult to detect, and cannot always be completely avoided, it can generally be mitigated, reduced or prevented through timely analysis and action.   This book covers the entire process of risk management by providing methodologies for determining the sources of project risk, and once threats have been identified, managing them through:   ·         identification and assessment (probability, relative importance, variables, risk breakdown structure, etc.) ·         implementation of measures for their prevention, reduction or mitigation ·         evaluation of impacts and quantification of risks ·         establishment of control measures   It also considers sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of uncertain parameters values ...

  6. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  7. A risk assessment method for accidental releases from nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Blaauboer RO; Eggink GJ

    1994-01-01

    At present over 200 nuclear power reactors are operational. The question raised is to what extent possible accidents with nuclear power reactors pose a risk for the European population. In this report a method is described for evaluating the probability of death due to stochastic effects, combining

  8. A risk assessment method for accidental releases from nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Blaauboer RO; Eggink GJ

    1994-01-01

    At present over 200 nuclear power reactors are operational. The question raised is to what extent possible accidents with nuclear power reactors pose a risk for the European population. In this report a method is described for evaluating the probability of death due to stochastic effects,

  9. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  10. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  11. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  12. Evaluating Methods for Evaluating Instruction: The Case of Higher Education

    OpenAIRE

    Bruce A. Weinberg; Belton M. Fleisher; Masanori Hashimoto

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops an original measure of learning in higher education, based on grades in subsequent courses. Using this measure of learning, this paper shows that student evaluations are positively related to current grades but unrelated to learning once current grades are controlled. It offers evidence that the weak relationship between learning and student evaluations arises, in part, because students are unaware of how much they have learned in a course. The paper concludes with a discu...

  13. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  14. Evaluation of Two Methods in Food Hygiene

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Diandra Graciela; Centro Universitário de Votuporanga - UNIFEV; Silva, Nayara Bessa Martins da; Centro Universitário de Votuporanga - UNIFEV; Rezende, Catia; Centro Universitário de Votuporanga - UNIFEV; Jacobucci, Helaine Beatriz; Centro Universitário de Votuporanga - UNIFEV; Fontana, Eloni Aparecida; Centro Universitário de Votuporanga - UNIFEV

    2011-01-01

    Microorganisms in food may be a risk to human health. Pathogenic microorganisms reach food by several routes, always indicating poor hygiene during production, storage, processing, distribution and handling at the household level. Current analysis investigates two techniques (water and soap and sodium hypochlorite) used in washing fruits and vegetables to remove fecal or total coliforms. Samples of grape, pear, apple, guava, tomato and lettuces were obtained from commercial establishments in ...

  15. Metode de evaluare a riscului de apariţie a vătămărilor de zăpadă în pădurile din România [Methods for the evaluation of risk to snowdamages in Romanian forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbu I

    2004-07-01

    development of the methods and mapping criteria for the prognosis of risk to snow damages; (e production of the methods for snow risk analisys and the specific management of stands; (f rationalization of the financial and human efforts with an increase of the forest stability. The results are the based on the autor's experience in the research and evaluation of four catastrophic snow damages in Romania (1977, 1979, 1993, 1996. Some proposals for the evaluation of stands stability to snow and for the snow risk mapping of the Romanian territory have been developed in recent years.

  16. Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

  17. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahnaz Ashrafi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group. Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results: Gravidity [odds ratio (OR: 0.8, confidence interval (CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01, family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, P0.05. Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion: Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many women and is associated with the significant morbidity. In this study, we built a prediction model which can be used to predict the risk of endometriosis in infertile women.

  18. Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimy Fluyau

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundKratom (Mitragyna speciosa is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules. Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug’s effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world.MethodsLiterature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom (M. speciosa.ResultsData analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and

  19. Gamma cameras - a method of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oates, L.; Bibbo, G.

    2000-01-01

    Full text: With the sophistication and longevity of the modern gamma camera it is not often that the need arises to evaluate a gamma camera for purchase. We have recently been placed in the position of retiring our two single headed cameras of some vintage and replacing them with a state of the art dual head variable angle gamma camera. The process used for the evaluation consisted of five parts: (1) Evaluation of the technical specification as expressed in the tender document; (2) A questionnaire adapted from the British Society of Nuclear Medicine; (3) Site visits to assess gantry configuration, movement, patient access and occupational health, welfare and safety considerations; (4) Evaluation of the processing systems offered; (5) Whole of life costing based on equally configured systems. The results of each part of the evaluation were expressed using a weighted matrix analysis with each of the criteria assessed being weighted in accordance with their importance to the provision of an effective nuclear medicine service for our centre and the particular importance to paediatric nuclear medicine. This analysis provided an objective assessment of each gamma camera system from which a purchase recommendation was made. Copyright (2000) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

  20. A method for calculating effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, R.M.; England, A.; McEntee, M.F.; Hogg, P.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To propose a method for evaluating the effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography and to present initial data for the UK National Breast Screening Programme. Material and methods: The imaging was undertaken using a Hologic Selenia full field digital mammographic unit. The proposed method utilises an ATOM phantom containing thermoluminescent dosimeters and a perspex-polyethylene breast phantom to measure organ doses during a standard four view screening mammogram. Effective dose was calculated and effective risk was modelled for a range of client ages. The total lifetime effective risk was then calculated for the UK national screening programme. Calculation of effective risk includes the radiation dose to examined and contralateral breasts in addition to other body organs; this is an advantage over the mean glandular dose. Results: The contralateral breast, thyroid, thymus, brain, lung, salivary glands, and bone marrow all receive more than 1 μGy radiation dose during screening mammography. A major difference exists for total effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer between clients with average and high breast cancer risk. Differences are attributed to the commencement age of screening and time interval between screens. Conclusion: This study proposes a method to evaluate effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography in order to compare different mammography screening programmes. - Highlights: • We proposed a method for the calculation of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography. • We measured the radiation absorbed dose of different organs during screening mammography. • There are major differences between mammography screening programme categories with regard to radiation effective risk.

  1. Evaluation of structural reliability using simulation methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baballëku Markel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Eurocode describes the 'index of reliability' as a measure of structural reliability, related to the 'probability of failure'. This paper is focused on the assessment of this index for a reinforced concrete bridge pier. It is rare to explicitly use reliability concepts for design of structures, but the problems of structural engineering are better known through them. Some of the main methods for the estimation of the probability of failure are the exact analytical integration, numerical integration, approximate analytical methods and simulation methods. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in this paper, because it offers a very good tool for the estimation of probability in multivariate functions. Complicated probability and statistics problems are solved through computer aided simulations of a large number of tests. The procedures of structural reliability assessment for the bridge pier and the comparison with the partial factor method of the Eurocodes have been demonstrated in this paper.

  2. Evaluation of Ponseti method in neglected clubfoot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhinav Sinha

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: Painless, supple, plantigrade, and cosmetically acceptable feet were achieved in neglected clubfeet without any extensive surgery. A fair trial of conservative Ponseti method should be tried before resorting to extensive soft tissue procedure.

  3. Quantitative Methods for Software Selection and Evaluation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bandor, Michael S

    2006-01-01

    ... (the ability of the product to meet the need) and the cost. The method used for the analysis and selection activities can range from the use of basic intuition to counting the number of requirements fulfilled, or something...

  4. Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food related hazards, based on risks for human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, E. D.; Raley, M.

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science......, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered - based on their characteristics - into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years, multi......-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking...

  5. Uncertainty evaluation methods for waste package performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Y.T.; Nair, P.K.; Journel, A.G.; Abramson, L.R.

    1991-01-01

    This report identifies and investigates methodologies to deal with uncertainties in assessing high-level nuclear waste package performance. Four uncertainty evaluation methods (probability-distribution approach, bounding approach, expert judgment, and sensitivity analysis) are suggested as the elements of a methodology that, without either diminishing or enhancing the input uncertainties, can evaluate performance uncertainty. Such a methodology can also help identify critical inputs as a guide to reducing uncertainty so as to provide reasonable assurance that the risk objectives are met. This report examines the current qualitative waste containment regulation and shows how, in conjunction with the identified uncertainty evaluation methodology, a framework for a quantitative probability-based rule can be developed that takes account of the uncertainties. Current US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulation requires that the waste packages provide ''substantially complete containment'' (SCC) during the containment period. The term ''SCC'' is ambiguous and subject to interpretation. This report, together with an accompanying report that describes the technical considerations that must be addressed to satisfy high-level waste containment requirements, provides a basis for a third report to develop recommendations for regulatory uncertainty reduction in the ''containment''requirement of 10 CFR Part 60. 25 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Methods of evaluating market transformation programmes: experience in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neij, L.

    2001-01-01

    The evaluation of market transformation programmes requires the development of new methods, relative to methods used for the evaluation of traditional energy efficiency programmes. In this paper, a model for the evaluation of market transformation programmes is proposed, based in part on evaluation methods discussed in the literature. The proposed model entails an extensive evaluation process, including the evaluation of market transformation effects, the impact of these effects, and the evaluation of the outline of the programme. Furthermore, evaluations of Swedish market transformation programmes have been analysed in relation to the proposed model. The analysis shows that not all of the evaluations have been focused on market transformation, and those that have, are only partly consistent with the evaluation model proposed here. It is concluded that future evaluations of Swedish market transformation programmes should be extended and improved in accordance with the proposed model. (author)

  7. Evaluation of blind signal separation methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schobben, D.W.E.; Torkkola, K.; Smaragdis, P.

    1999-01-01

    Recently many new Blind Signal Separation BSS algorithms have been introduced Authors evaluate the performance of their algorithms in various ways Among these are speech recognition rates plots of separated signals plots of cascaded mixingunmixing impulse responses and signal to noise ratios Clearly

  8. A Ranking Method for Evaluating Constructed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attali, Yigal

    2014-01-01

    This article presents a comparative judgment approach for holistically scored constructed response tasks. In this approach, the grader rank orders (rather than rate) the quality of a small set of responses. A prior automated evaluation of responses guides both set formation and scaling of rankings. Sets are formed to have similar prior scores and…

  9. Improved methods to evaluate realised energy savings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M.

    2005-01-01

    This thesis regards the calculation of realised energy savings at national and sectoral level, and the policy contribution to total savings. It is observed that the results of monitoring and evaluation studies on realised energy savings are hardly applied in energy saving policy. Causes are the lack

  10. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  11. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  12. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  13. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  14. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  15. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  16. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  17. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  18. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  19. Applicability of PRA methods and data to the financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sheik, K.A.

    1985-01-01

    Financial risk assessment, where the probability and severity of financial consequences are estimated, offers a logical framework for organizing and evaluating data pertinent to nuclear power plant accidents. Under the sponsorship of the Electric Power Research Institute, General Electric investigated the feasibility of financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants and of applying PRA methods and data in such an assessment. This paper summarizes the main findings of this investigation. Specifically, the paper discussed the following topics: definition of financial consequences and financial risk; overall approach for financial risk assessment and how it compares with the approach for PRA used in the Reactor Safety Study; and specific financial risk assessment procedures for defining initiating events, plant response sequences, institutional scenarios, and financial consequences and how they compare to analogous procedures for PRA

  20. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  1. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  2. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  3. Methods of currency risk management in foreign trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Ksendzuk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Development of the country’s market national economy is closely connected with international economic relations. Therefore national business entities are actively involved in foreign trade, and their positive results influence not only on the status and income of owners, but form the economic potential of the country. The survey describes the main indicators of foreign trade and the impact of export and import transactions on economic development of Ukraine, particularly on the gross domestic income of the country. Taking into account also the negative trends in foreign currency exchange rates, the article considers the types of currency risks that accompany international transactions and identifies the limits of the usefulness of currency risk management methods. The methods of currency risk management are also systematized, the benefits of their use for the enterprise are considered and the status and readiness of Ukraine’s financial market to ensure appropriate conditions for the functioning of the currency risk management in domestic enterprises are analyzed.

  4. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  5. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P J

    2013-01-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead

  6. Methods for measuring risk-aversion: problems and solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2013-09-01

    Risk-aversion is a fundamental parameter determining how humans act when required to operate in situations of risk. Its general applicability has been discussed in a companion presentation, and this paper examines methods that have been used in the past to measure it and their attendant problems. It needs to be borne in mind that risk-aversion varies with the size of the possible loss, growing strongly as the possible loss becomes comparable with the decision maker's assets. Hence measuring risk-aversion when the potential loss or gain is small will produce values close to the risk-neutral value of zero, irrespective of who the decision maker is. It will also be shown how the generally accepted practice of basing a measurement on the results of a three-term Taylor series will estimate a limiting value, minimum or maximum, rather than the value utilised in the decision. A solution is to match the correct utility function to the results instead.

  7. RESEARCH ON RISK CLASSIFICATION METHOD OF ASSEMBLY OCCUPANCIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the densely population and mobility characteristics of the crowd, generally accidents happened in assembly occupancies will trigger a chain reaction, and then bring heavy casualties and property loss, and result disastrous consequences. In the context of safety regulation resources limited, building risk classification system of assembly occupancies is important for "scientific predicting, and hierarchical controlling” In this paper, a software with a graphical user interface is designed using MATLAB GUI to analyze and calculate risks of stampede accident caused by gathered crowds in the video. A velocity extraction method based on cross-correlation algorithm is adopted, and the risk characteristic parameters such as velocity variance is also applied. In this way, real-time analysis and early-warning for risks of stampede accident in time and space can be achieved. Also, the algorithm is applied to the surveillance video of the stampede in Shanghai and its feasibility is proved. Empirical research shows that, the assembly occupancies risk rating model built in this paper has good effectiveness, simplicity and practicability, applies to the government safety regulation and organization safety management, and can improve the safety situation of assembly occupancies effectively.

  8. Evaluation of local corrosion life by statistical method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Shunji; Kurosawa, Tatsuo; Takaku, Hiroshi; Kusanagi, Hideo; Hirano, Hideo; Kimura, Hideo; Hide, Koichiro; Kawasaki, Masayuki

    1987-01-01

    In this paper, for the purpose of achievement of life extension of light water reactor, we examined the evaluation of local corrosion by satistical method and its application of nuclear power plant components. There are many evaluation examples of maximum cracking depth of local corrosion by dowbly exponential distribution. This evaluation method has been established. But, it has not been established that we evaluate service lifes of construction materials by satistical method. In order to establish of service life evaluation by satistical method, we must strive to collect local corrosion dates and its analytical researchs. (author)

  9. Land management planning: a method of evaluating alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres Weintraub; Richard Adams; Linda Yellin

    1982-01-01

    A method is described for developing and evaluating alternatives in land management planning. A structured set of 15 steps provides a framework for such an evaluation. when multiple objectives and uncertainty must be considered in the planning process. The method is consistent with other processes used in organizational evaluation, and allows for the interaction of...

  10. SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

  11. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  13. Methods for the evaluation and the prevention of accidental risks (DRA-006). The BLEVE, phenomenology and simulation of thermal effects; Methodes pour l'evaluation et la prevention des risques accidentels (DRA-006). Le BLEVE, phenomenologie et modelisation des effets thermiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-09-01

    The aim of this document is to present a synthesis on the BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) risk which could appear in the liquefied gases storage. The objective is to define a typology and a theory of the phenomena, based on passed accidents and instrumented tests, to present a synthesis of available models to describe the thermal effects generated by the BLEVE with a comparison of simulation and passed accidents, to propose some ideas for the BLEVE prevention. (A.L.B.)

  14. Radiation safety assessment of treatment teletherapy linear accelerators using the method of the risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo Gonzalez, Cruz; Vilaragut Llanes, Juan J.; Morales Lopez, Jorge L.

    2009-01-01

    Accidents in the world of radiation, demonstrating the need for deepen security assessments. This study evaluates the safety of the treatment of teletherapy linear accelerator (LINAC) at a hospital in Cuba, based on applying the method Risk Matrix. This method has been used for many years in conventional industry, is simple, easy to apply and is based on the equation General risk R = f * P * C (where: f frequency of occurrence of the initiating event, P probability of failure of all barriers and magnitude of the consequences C expected). We have evaluated 140 accident sequences that were identified during the analysis of the treatment process. It was identified that 5 sequences are associated with the level of risk is very low, 96 low-risk, high risk and 39 with no very high risk. All accident sequences associated with high risk (considered unacceptable), have an impact on patients, and no concerns workers and public, which reaffirms that major security problems are related to radiation protection of patients. 34 sequences accidental high risk are associated with human errors and failures only 5 to equipment (LINAC, TPS, TAC, etc.). demonstrating the importance of human error. It shows that 35 of the 39 high-risk accident sequences leading to serious or very serious consequences for patients, which would mean the death of one or more patients, making specific recommendations to reduce risk in these cases. The findings of this work and regulators allow users to refine their programs quality assurance and inspection and suggest the hospital management, prioritize material resources according to criteria of irrigation management. (author)

  15. A Study on the Estimation Method of Risk Based Area for Jetty Safety Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byeong-Wook Nam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the importance of safety-monitoring systems was highlighted by the unprecedented collision between a ship and a jetty in Yeosu. Accordingly, in this study, we introduce the concept of risk based area and develop a methodology for a jetty safety-monitoring system. By calculating the risk based areas for a ship and a jetty, the risk of collision was evaluated. To calculate the risk based areas, we employed an automatic identification system for the ship, stopping-distance equations, and the regulation velocity near the jetty. In this paper, we suggest a risk calculation method for jetty safety monitoring that can determine the collision probability in real time and predict collisions using the amount of overlap between the two calculated risk based areas. A test was conducted at a jetty control center at GS Caltex, and the effectiveness of the proposed risk calculation method was verified. The method is currently applied to the jetty-monitoring system at GS Caltex in Yeosu for the prevention of collisions.

  16. Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.

    2008-01-01

    Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se

  17. Evaluations of Three Methods for Remote Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolford, B.; Chmielewski, C.; Pandya, A.; Adolf, J.; Whitmore, M.; Berman, A.; Maida, J.

    1999-01-01

    Long duration space missions require a change in training methods and technologies. For Shuttle missions, crew members could train for all the planned procedures, and carry documentation of planned procedures for a variety of contingencies. As International Space Station (ISS) missions of three months or longer are carried out, many more tasks will need to be performed for which little or no training was received prior to launch. Eventually, exploration missions will last several years, and communications with Earth will have long time delays or be impossible at times. This series of three studies was performed to identify the advantages and disadvantages of three types of training for self-instruction: video-conferencing; multimedia; and virtual reality. These studies each compared two types of training methods, on two different types of tasks. In two of the studies, the subject's were in an isolated, confined environment analogous to space flight; the third study was performed in a laboratory.

  18. Systematic evaluation of nondestructive testing methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segal, Y.; Notea, A.; Segal, E.

    1977-01-01

    The main task of an NDT engineer is to select the best method, considering the cost-benefit value of different available systems and taking into account the special existing constraints. The aim of the paper is to suggest a tool that will enable characterization of measuring systems. The derivation of the characterization parameters and functions has to be general, i.e., suitable for all possible measuring methods, independent of their principle of operation. Quite often the properties measured during the NDT procedure are not the wanted ones, but there must be a correlation between the measured property and the performance of the product. One has to bear in mind that the ultimate choice between systems is not, in practice, just based on the mathematical optimization approach that is presented. Factors like cost-benefit, availability of trained manpower, service, real-time information, weight, volume, etc., may be crucial problems, and they may well dictate the final selection

  19. Experience of the use of comparative evaluations of risks in the public discussion about nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borsch, P.

    1983-01-01

    In the nuclear controversy the risks of nuclear facilities play a major role. An evaluation of these risks is possible only by comparison with other risks to which people are exposed. For this purpose the selection of suitable comparative risk sources is important. But even if appropriate risk sources have been chosen, there will always be some rest dimensions which are difficult to encompass into the comparison. Among these problems are: the maximum damage, the time frame, the practical experience with a risk source, the different composition of the risk (death, injuries, cancers etc.), the uncertainty of risk assessment results, especially for chronic and late effects. One has to pay attention to these obstacles of comparing risks in the public discussion. Experience shows that risk comparison will be easier accepted if one explicitly refers to this difficulty. Also the different components of risks have to be presented, at least from its basic concept. An interesting possibility is the comparison of different risks with regard to their shortening of life expectancy. This common delimiter has to be used with care, since some comparisons decrease the probability of public acceptance for this method. Nevertheless this method provides a good illustration, of how small e.g. the risk of low doses of ionizing radiation is in comparison to smoking cigarettes. In any case it has to be pointed out that risk is not the only criterion for decisions about a technology, but that other factors like economics, fuel supply, degree of technical development have to be taken into account

  20. [Corneal transparency: anatomical basis and evaluation methods].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avetisov, S E; Narbut, M N

    Being just a relatively small part of the fibrous tunic of the eyeball, the cornea is, nevertheless, unique in terms of the variety of its functions. Because the cornea differs significantly from other protective frames in its structure, it provides the possibility of light transmission and strong refraction that largely contributes to the total refraction of the eye. The development of ophthalmology is impossible without improving methods of adequate anatomical and functional assessment of the eye not only as a whole, but also as a collection of interacting structures.In this regard, examination methods of the cornea have undergone significant advances in recent years. So far, the level of corneal transparency has been judged by biomicroscopy findings or indirect characteristics (thickness, structure, etc.). Confocal microscopy of the cornea and wave-based examinations involving one of the available laser interferometers (OCT or HRT) are also used. However, the data obtained with these methods resembles that of layer-specific reflectometry, i.e. the magnitude of directed reflection of the light beam from corneal corpuscles, which does not completely agree with the classical idea of transparency.

  1. Evaluation of toothbrush disinfection via different methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil BASMAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of using a dishwasher or different chemical agents, including 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate, 2% sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl, a mouthrinse containing essential oils and alcohol, and 50% white vinegar, for toothbrush disinfection. Sixty volunteers were divided into five experimental groups and one control group (n = 10. Participants brushed their teeth using toothbrushes with standard bristles, and they disinfected the toothbrushes according to instructed methods. Bacterial contamination of the toothbrushes was compared between the experimental groups and the control group. Data were analyzed by Kruskal–Wallis and Duncan's multiple range tests, with 95% confidence intervals for multiple comparisons. Bacterial contamination of toothbrushes from individuals in the experimental groups differed from those in the control group (p < 0.05. The most effective method for elimination of all tested bacterial species was 50% white vinegar, followed in order by 2% NaOCl, mouthrinse containing essential oils and alcohol, 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate, dishwasher use, and tap water (control. The results of this study show that the most effective method for disinfecting toothbrushes was submersion in 50% white vinegar, which is cost-effective, easy to access, and appropriate for household use.

  2. Performance Evaluation Methods for Assistive Robotic Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsui, Katherine M.; Feil-Seifer, David J.; Matarić, Maja J.; Yanco, Holly A.

    Robots have been developed for several assistive technology domains, including intervention for Autism Spectrum Disorders, eldercare, and post-stroke rehabilitation. Assistive robots have also been used to promote independent living through the use of devices such as intelligent wheelchairs, assistive robotic arms, and external limb prostheses. Work in the broad field of assistive robotic technology can be divided into two major research phases: technology development, in which new devices, software, and interfaces are created; and clinical, in which assistive technology is applied to a given end-user population. Moving from technology development towards clinical applications is a significant challenge. Developing performance metrics for assistive robots poses a related set of challenges. In this paper, we survey several areas of assistive robotic technology in order to derive and demonstrate domain-specific means for evaluating the performance of such systems. We also present two case studies of applied performance measures and a discussion regarding the ubiquity of functional performance measures across the sampled domains. Finally, we present guidelines for incorporating human performance metrics into end-user evaluations of assistive robotic technologies.

  3. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  4. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongfang Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  5. Studies of cancer risk among Chernobyl liquidators: materials and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesminiene, A.; Cardis, E.; Tenet, V.; Ivanov, V.K.; Kurtinaitis, J.; Malakhova, I.; Stengrevics, A.; Tekkel, M.

    2002-01-01

    The current paper presents the methods and design of two case-control studies among Chernobyl liquidators - one of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the other of thyroid cancer risk - carried out in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia. The specific objective of these studies is to estimate the radiation induced risk of these diseases among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident, and, in particular, to study the effect of exposure protraction and radiation type on the risk of radiation induced cancer in the low-to-medium- (0-500 mSv) radiation dose range. The study population consists of the approximately 10,000 Baltic, 40,000 Belarus and 51,000 Russian liquidators who worked in the 30 km zone in 1986-1987, and who were registered in the Chernobyl registry of these countries. The studies included cases diagnosed in 1993-1998 for all countries but Belarus, where the study period was extended until 2000. Four controls were selected in each country from the national cohort for each case, matched on age, gender and region of residence. Information on study subjects was obtained through face-to-face interview using a standardised questionnaire with questions on demographic factors, time, place and conditions of work as a liquidator and potential risk and confounding factors for the tumours of interest. Overall, 136 cases and 595 controls after receiving their consent were included in the studies. A method of analytical dose reconstruction has been developed, validated and applied to the estimation of doses and related uncertainties for all the subjects in the study. Dose-response analyses are underway and results are likely to have important implications to assess the adequacy of existing protection standards, which are based on risk estimates derived from analyses of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors and other high dose studies. (author)

  6. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  7. Liver function tests and risk prediction of incident type 2 diabetes : evaluation in two independent cohorts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbasi, Ali; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Corpeleijn, Eva; van der A, Daphne L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O. B.; Peelen, Linda M.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.; Beulens, Joline W. J.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Liver function tests might predict the risk of type 2 diabetes. An independent study evaluating utility of these markers compared with an existing prediction model is yet lacking. Methods and Findings: We performed a case-cohort study, including random subcohort (6.5%) from 38,379

  8. Risk-based analysis methods applied to nuclear power plant technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1989-01-01

    A computer-aided methodology and practical applications of risk-based evaluation of technical specifications are described. The methodology, developed for use by the utility industry, is a part of the overall process of improving nuclear power plant technical specifications. The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a probabilistic risk assessment or a system-level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at the plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns and decreasing labor requirements for test and maintenance activities, with no adverse impacts on risk. The methodology and the SOCRATES computer program have been used extensively toe valuate several actual technical specifications in case studies demonstrating the methods. Summaries of these applications demonstrate the types of results achieved and the usefulness of the risk-based evaluation in improving the technical specifications

  9. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iinuma, T A; Tateno, Y; Hashizume, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-05-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation.

  10. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio; Hashizume, Tadashi

    1980-01-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation. (Tsunoda, M.)

  11. A comparison of two prospective risk analysis methods: Traditional FMEA and a modified healthcare FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya

    2016-12-01

    To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.

  12. [Evaluation of Wits appraisal with superimposition method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, T; Ahn, J; Baumrind, S

    1999-07-01

    To compare the conventional Wits appraisal with superimposed Wits appraisal in evaluation of sagittal jaw relationship change between pre and post orthodontic treatment. The sample consists of 48-case pre and post treatment lateral head films. Computerized digitizing is used to get the cephalometric landmarks and measure conventional Wits value, superimposed Wits value and ANB angle. The correlation analysis among these three measures was done by SAS statistical package. The change of ANB angle has higher correlation with the change of superimposed Wits than that of the conventional Wits. The r-value is as high as 0.849 (P < 0.001). The superimposed Wits appraisal reflects the change of sagittal jaw relationship more objectively than the conventional one.

  13. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  14. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  15. EVALUATION METHODS OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadiia Davydenko

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to reveal scientific approaches to determining investment attractiveness of enterprises. Evaluation methods of investment attractiveness of enterprises, which are based on various expert assessments, on statistical information, and also combined methodologies based on expert and statistical calculations are investigated. Decision-making criteria on the appropriateness of investment are determined. Methodology. To determine investment attractiveness of agrarian enterprise on the basis of rating and analytical assessment, it is necessary to use an integrated approach and take into account certain set of indicators. During developing and organizing rating restrictions, we conducted an analysis of groups of indicators, which combined characterize investment attractiveness in a complex way, taking into account specifics of the industry. Results. Application of this approach allows quickly evaluating perspectives of funds investing and the reliability of the investment object. At the same time, the investment potential of company and investment risk are expressed by one general indicator, which allows applying rating comparisons. In order to approbate research results, seven agrarian enterprises with positive profitability and appropriate level of financial autonomy are selected. Based on financial statements, we determined their investment attractiveness and rating. Practical implications. Proposed calculation methodology covers all major processes occurring in different functional sectors of the internal environment of agrarian enterprise, which ensures a systematic view of the subject of management, which enables to identify all the strengths and weaknesses, as well as to create a strategy for prospective development on this basis. Presented methodology for the evaluation of investment attractiveness of enterprises can be successfully applied in agrarian enterprises as during the choice of priority directions of

  16. Auditing as method of QA programme evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelm, H.

    1980-01-01

    The status and adequacy of a quality assurance programme should be regularly reviewed by the cognizant management. The programme audit is an independent review to determine the compliance with respective quality assurance requirements and to determine the effectiveness of that programme. This lecture gives an introduction of the method to perform audits under the following topics: 1. Definition and purpose of quality audits. 2. Organization of the quality audit function. 3. Unique requirements for auditors. 4. Audit preparation and planning. 5. Conduct of the audit. 6. Reporting the audit results. 7. Follow-up activities. (RW)

  17. CEPIAH, a method for Evaluation and Design of Pedagogical Hypermedia

    OpenAIRE

    Trigano , Philippe; Pacurar Giacomini , Ecaterina

    2004-01-01

    We are working on a method, called CEPIAH. We propose a web based system used to help teachers to design multimedia documents and to evaluate their prototypes. Our tool integrates two modules such as EMPI (Evaluation of Multimedia Pedagogical and Interactive software), and SP/UL/FC, a method for designing pedagogical hypermedia. The EMPI module is used to evaluate multimedia software used in educational context. We structured a knowledge base composed of a list of evaluation criteria, grouped...

  18. Evaluation of risk factors and markers for cardiovascular disease in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: The study was designed to investigate the lipid profile, C- reactive protein and urinary level of micro-albumin as part of routine risk assessment in diabetic patients. Subjects and Methods: Plasma levels of total cholesterol, low density liproprotein cholesterol (LDL – C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol

  19. Occurrence of bovine hydatidosis and evaluation of its risk to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To determine the occurrence, localization and fertility/sterility rates of hydatid cyst in cattle, to determine the prevalence of adult E. granulosus in dogs and asses the risk for human infection in traditional communities. Methods: Postmortem examination, hydatid cyst characterization, questionnaire survey and dog ...

  20. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  1. PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe; Julie L. Marble

    2005-01-01

    An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or ''discount'' methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining human centered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings with HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI

  2. [Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

    2018-05-01

    The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

  3. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  4. Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi

    2012-01-01

    The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.

  5. Dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy: Evaluation of risk factors and assessment of endoscopic intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Nath, Anand; Yewale, Sayali; Tran, Tung; Brebbia, John S; Shope, Timothy R; Koch, Timothy R

    2016-01-01

    AIM To evaluate the risks of medical conditions, evaluate gastric sleeve narrowing, and assess hydrostatic balloon dilatation to treat dysphagia after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG). METHODS VSG is being performed more frequently worldwide as a treatment for medically-complicated obesity, and dysphagia is common post-operatively. We hypothesize that post-operative dysphagia is related to underlying medical conditions or narrowing of the gastric sleeve. This is a retrospective, single insti...

  6. Evaluation of creditability and risk minimisation : The effect of accounting for intangibles

    OpenAIRE

    Lukiyanov, Artem

    2005-01-01

    The recent history knows numerous examples of creditor’s inability to evaluate financial solvency of the client correctly. Creditors’ risks do not only concern individual relations between the two parties but the economy in general. The standard loan-giving procedure considers evaluation based on a number of financial ratios. Using the standard method a company that in reality is creditable may sometimes be counted as insolvent by the bank – due to the structure of the balance sheet, for inst...

  7. Prostate Cancer Predictive Simulation Modelling, Assessing the Risk Technique (PCP-SMART): Introduction and Initial Clinical Efficacy Evaluation Data Presentation of a Simple Novel Mathematical Simulation Modelling Method, Devised to Predict the Outcome of Prostate Biopsy on an Individual Basis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyropoulos, Evangelos; Kotsiris, Dimitrios; Spyropoulos, Katherine; Panagopoulos, Aggelos; Galanakis, Ioannis; Mavrikos, Stamatios

    2017-02-01

    We developed a mathematical "prostate cancer (PCa) conditions simulating" predictive model (PCP-SMART), from which we derived a novel PCa predictor (prostate cancer risk determinator [PCRD] index) and a PCa risk equation. We used these to estimate the probability of finding PCa on prostate biopsy, on an individual basis. A total of 371 men who had undergone transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy were enrolled in the present study. Given that PCa risk relates to the total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) level, age, prostate volume, free PSA (fPSA), fPSA/tPSA ratio, and PSA density and that tPSA ≥ 50 ng/mL has a 98.5% positive predictive value for a PCa diagnosis, we hypothesized that correlating 2 variables composed of 3 ratios (1, tPSA/age; 2, tPSA/prostate volume; and 3, fPSA/tPSA; 1 variable including the patient's tPSA and the other, a tPSA value of 50 ng/mL) could operate as a PCa conditions imitating/simulating model. Linear regression analysis was used to derive the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), termed the PCRD index. To estimate the PCRD index's predictive validity, we used the χ 2 test, multiple logistic regression analysis with PCa risk equation formation, calculation of test performance characteristics, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using SPSS, version 22 (P regression revealed the PCRD index as an independent PCa predictor, and the formulated risk equation was 91% accurate in predicting the probability of finding PCa. On the receiver operating characteristic analysis, the PCRD index (area under the curve, 0.926) significantly (P < .001) outperformed other, established PCa predictors. The PCRD index effectively predicted the prostate biopsy outcome, correctly identifying 9 of 10 men who were eventually diagnosed with PCa and correctly ruling out PCa for 9 of 10 men who did not have PCa. Its predictive power significantly outperformed established PCa predictors, and the formulated risk equation

  8. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  9. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance

  10. A new method used to evaluate organic working fluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xinxin; He, Maogang; Wang, Jingfu

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a method named “Weight Classification-Hasse Dominance” to evaluate organic working fluids. This new method combines the advantages of both the method of weight determination and the Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT). It can be used to evaluate the thermodynamic performance, environmental protection indicator, and safety requirement of organic working fluid simultaneously. This evaluation method can offer good reference for working fluid selection. Using this method, the organic working fluids which have been phased out and will be phased out by the Montreal Protocol including CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) were evaluated. Moreover, HCs (hydrocarbons) can be considered as a completely different kind of organic working fluid from CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs according to the comparison based on this new evaluation method. - Highlights: • We propose a new method used to evaluate organic working fluids. • This evaluation method can offer good reference for working fluid selection. • CFC, HCFC, and HFC working fluids were evaluated using this evaluation method. • HC can be considered as a totally different working fluid from CFC, HCFC, and HFC

  11. Household batteries: Evaluation of collection methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeberger, D.A.

    1992-12-31

    While it is difficult to prove that a specific material is causing contamination in a landfill, tests have been conducted at waste-to-energy facilities that indicate that household batteries contribute significant amounts of heavy metals to both air emissions and ash residue. Hennepin County, MN, used a dual approach for developing and implementing a special household battery collection. Alternative collection methods were examined; test collections were conducted. The second phase examined operating and disposal policy issues. This report describes the results of the grant project, moving from a broad examination of the construction and content of batteries, to a description of the pilot collection programs, and ending with a discussion of variables affecting the cost and operation of a comprehensive battery collection program. Three out-of-state companies (PA, NY) were found that accept spent batteries; difficulties in reclaiming household batteries are discussed.

  12. Household batteries: Evaluation of collection methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeberger, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    While it is difficult to prove that a specific material is causing contamination in a landfill, tests have been conducted at waste-to-energy facilities that indicate that household batteries contribute significant amounts of heavy metals to both air emissions and ash residue. Hennepin County, MN, used a dual approach for developing and implementing a special household battery collection. Alternative collection methods were examined; test collections were conducted. The second phase examined operating and disposal policy issues. This report describes the results of the grant project, moving from a broad examination of the construction and content of batteries, to a description of the pilot collection programs, and ending with a discussion of variables affecting the cost and operation of a comprehensive battery collection program. Three out-of-state companies (PA, NY) were found that accept spent batteries; difficulties in reclaiming household batteries are discussed.

  13. Study on comprehensive evaluation methods for nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arie, Kazuo

    1999-03-01

    This investigation on comprehensive-evaluation-methods for nuclear fuel cycle has been performed through open-literature search. As the results, no proper comprehensive-evaluation-method has been found which integrate several factors to be considered into only one factor. In the evaluation of future advanced nuclear energy systems, it is required to evaluate from both view points of natural resources and natural environment, in addition to the other factors such as safety, economy, and proliferation resistance. It is recommended that clarification of specific items or targets to be evaluated is most important as the first thing to be done. Second, methodology for the evaluation should be discussed. (author)

  14. Evaluation method of offensive odor. Shuki no hyoka hoho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwasaki, Y [The Tokyo Metropolitan Research Institute for Environmental Protection, Tokyo (Japan)

    1991-06-01

    As the evaluation method of offensive odor, two kinds of methods were outlined, a concentration measurement method for compounds emitting offensive odors and a sensory method by human olfactory organ. On the former, the method for measuring separately odors of twelve compounds controlled by the regulation act such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide was outlined as well as the method for measuring odors of compound groups such as total reduced sulfur and total hydrocarbon. On the later, the evaluation scale of essential properties of odor such as quality, intensity, acceptability and pervasiveness was discussed. As typical sensory techniques, a scentometer, syringe method, odorless chamber method and olfactometer were outlined, and a triangle odor bag method widely used for the evaluation at present was described in detail which was developed to reduce demerits of a syringe method such as adsorption of odorants on a syringe surface. 24 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. Usability of the Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA Method for Assessing the Risk Factors of Upper Limb Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd Razak Noor Syafiqa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to design ergonomic methods or assessment with a high usability and good ergonomic features, so the method is easily adaptable to the task and the workplace environment. Usability is a measurement on how well the user can use that functionality. The study converged on testing the usability of the new tools for assessing ULDs namely as Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA. The UPLIRA method was evaluated by 6 students (3 undergraduate students and 3 postgraduates students from University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM who are conducting research in ergonomic. From the feedback survey of UPLIRA method, the observers agree that the prototype of UPLIRA tool was applicable to workplace assessment for the wide range of jobs/task (mean 4.00, SD:0.632 with 83% percentage of agreement . They also indicate that UPLIRA method is quick to use (mean 3.67, SD:1.033 with percentage agreement of 67%. The scoring system and action level was rated as easy to understand (mean 3.67, SD:1.211 and (mean 4.17, SD:0.408. Conclusively, the UPLIRA method was rated as straightforward to use, applicable to wide range of tasks, and time saving as assessment can be completed within 10 minutes. In addition, the UPLIRA assessment covers an extensive range of physical, psychosocial, work organizational, and individual risk factors.

  16. Methodical treatment of dependent failures in risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Mertens, J.

    1987-06-01

    In this report the state-of-the-art regarding dependent failures is compiled and commented on. Among others the following recommendations are infered: The term 'common mode failures' should be restricted to failures of redundant, similar components; the generic term is 'dependent failures' with the subsets 'causal failures' and 'common cause failures'. In risk studies, dependent failures should be covered as far as possible by 'explicit methods'. Nevertheless an uncovered rest remains, which should be accounted for by sensitivity analyses using 'implicit methods'. For this the homogeneous Marshall-Olkin model is recommended. Because the available reports on operating experiences only record 'common mode failures' systematically, it is recommended to additionally apply other methods, e.g. carry out a 'precursor study'. (orig.) [de

  17. Risk-based methods for reliability investments in electric power distribution systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvehag, Karin

    2011-07-01

    Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while under investments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, over investments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socio economically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers. This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socio economically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed riskbased methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk

  18. Evaluation of the risks linked with natural refrigerating fluids; Evaluation des risques lies aux fluides frigorigenes naturels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilpart, J. [Centre National Machiniste Agricole du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets, (Cemagref), 35 - Rennes (France). Div. Genie des Procedes Frigorifiques

    1999-07-01

    Because of their environmental impact, halogenated refrigerants are more and more replaced by `natural` refrigerants in vapor compression cycle refrigerating machineries. However, technological risks exist with these substitution fluids due to their flammability, explosibility or toxicity. Major risks can be encountered at the industrial scale and thanks to experience feedback and to several studies, a rigorous approach was settled and included in the legislative texts relative to classified installations and environment protection. Risks also exist at the scale of refrigerating installations with the use of hydrocarbon and ammonia refrigerants. This paper presents an evaluation of risks both at the industrial and at the installation scale: 1 - definition and approach of industrial risks: scenarios of major industrial accidents (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), toxic gases emission); evaluation of accident effects (thermal, mechanical, noxious); 2 - calculation methods applicable to industrial installations: thermal effects (radiation intensity, exposure duration, mass of flammable product involved in the phenomenon), mechanical effects (TNT equivalent method, rupture of pressurized reservoirs), noxious effects (leaks, atmospheric dispersion); 3 - application to refrigerating installations: case of hydrocarbons (dimensioning scenarios and simplified formulae, admissible scenarios), case of ammonia. (J.S.) 20 refs.

  19. THE APPLICATION OF THE METHOD ENVIRONMENTAL VALUE AT RISK (EVaR IN ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia I. PICIU

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the fact that the methodology Value at Risk or the method VaR, which is omnipresent in investment banking and which has lately become a standard in the procedure of evaluating risks for any category of economic activities, we shall use a technique that is compatible with the VaR-market, called Environmental Value at Risk or EvaR. While the VaR- market uses a level of trust of 95%, the EvaR uses a set of levels up to 99,999%. Thus, we shall try to analyze the variables of the method EVaR, and the way in which this model can be applied as a risk of the lack (rarity of petroleum. This risk is not only analyzed as a unique risk of growing the prices, but also as an uncertainty risk on volatile markets, in which the price and the volatility are the main variables used by the function EVaR.

  20. Investment Portfolio Formation Using Multi-criteria evaluation Method MULTIMOORA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilius Vaišvilas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Information that has to be analyzed by investors is complicated and can be interpreted differently by different people, which is why choosing what should be added to the investment portfolio is complicated task. Complexity grows substantially when there are more alternatives to choose from. Multi – criteria evaluation method can be used to choose the best alternatives. Multi–criteria evaluation method MULTIMOORA is not subjective because there is no need to decide ratio of any given variable that is evaluated. MULTIMOORA consists of: formation of ratio system, application of multi – criteria evaluation method as well as investment evaluation and ranking. Purpose of this article is to apply multi – criteria evaluation method MULTIMOORA for the formation and management of investment portfolio from stocks of the Baltic stock market companies. Methods used in the analysis for the article: analysis of scientific literature, statistical analysis, organization and comparison of data, idealization, calculations of MULTIMOORA.