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Sample records for risk evaluation extreme

  1. Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

    2013-01-01

    A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

  2. Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractAccurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financial applications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaR evaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by

  3. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Falling Down on the Job: Evaluation and Treatment of Fall Risk Among Older Adults With Upper Extremity Fragility Fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Christine M; Colla, Carrie H; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N A; Tosteson, Tor D; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V; Lurie, Jonathan D; Bynum, Julie P W

    2017-03-01

    Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Observational cohort. Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna ("wrist") fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007-2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. © 2017

  5. Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and

  6. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  7. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  8. To evaluate the differences of risk factors in patients with lower extremity venous disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadikoglu, G.; Ozcakir, A.; Ercan, I.; Ozkaya, G.; Sadikoglu, Y.M.

    2007-01-01

    To determine whether there is difference between risk factors in patients diagnosed to have clinically documented lower extremity venous disease after confirming the diagnosis radiologically by ultrasonographic and venographic evaluation. This study was performed from January 2002 to January 2005 in Bursa, the fourth biggest city of Turkey situated in the west of country in the Marmara region. The study center is a private imaging center working in conjunction with the Department of Health, which performs diagnostic and therapeutic vascular protocols in the region. Five hundred and fifty-three cases with clinically and radiologically documented diagnoses were evaluated with Multi-Variate Statistical Package 3.13 for the presence of pre-defined clusters of 14 different variables. Other statistical analyses were performed by the Statistical Package for Social sciences, version 13.0. Three different clusters were defined. The variables used to define the clusters were: age, gender, educational level, presence of smoking, amount of smoking (pack/per year), disease symptoms, presence of heart disease and radiologically documented diagnosis. Chronic venous insufficiency and varicose veins are venous system diseases that are most commonly present in association with more than one concomitant risk factors. (author)

  9. Extremely low-frequency magnetic fields and risk of childhood leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schüz, Joachim; Dasenbrock, Clemens; Ravazzani, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) was evaluated in an International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Monographs as "possibly carcinogenic to humans" in 2001, based on increased childhood leukemia risk observed in epidemiological studies. We conducted a hazard assess...

  10. Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

    1999-01-01

    A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

  11. Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

  12. Upper extremity deep venous thrombosis after port insertion: What are the risk factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaie, Omidreza; Kasumova, Gyulnara G; Kent, Tara S; Eskander, Mariam F; Fadayomi, Ayotunde B; Ng, Sing Chau; Critchlow, Jonathan F; Tawa, Nicholas E; Tseng, Jennifer F

    2017-08-01

    Totally implantable venous access devices (ports) are widely used, especially for cancer chemotherapy. Although their use has been associated with upper extremity deep venous thrombosis, the risk factors of upper extremity deep venous thrombosis in patients with a port are not studied adequately. The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Florida State Ambulatory Surgery and Services Database was queried between 2007 and 2011 for patients who underwent outpatient port insertion, identified by Current Procedural Terminology code. Patients were followed in the State Ambulatory Surgery and Services Database, State Inpatient Database, and State Emergency Department Database for upper extremity deep venous thrombosis occurrence. The cohort was divided into a test cohort and a validation cohort based on the year of port placement. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify risk factors for upper extremity deep venous thrombosis in patients with a port. The model then was tested on the validation cohort. Of the 51,049 patients in the derivation cohort, 926 (1.81%) developed an upper extremity deep venous thrombosis. On multivariate analysis, independently significant predictors of upper extremity deep venous thrombosis included age deep venous thrombosis (odds ratio = 1.77), all-cause 30-day revisit (odds ratio = 2.36), African American race (versus white; odds ratio = 1.86), and other nonwhite races (odds ratio = 1.35). Additionally, compared with genitourinary malignancies, patients with gastrointestinal (odds ratio = 1.55), metastatic (odds ratio = 1.76), and lung cancers (odds ratio = 1.68) had greater risks of developing an upper extremity deep venous thrombosis. This study identified major risk factors of upper extremity deep venous thrombosis. Further studies are needed to evaluate the appropriateness of thromboprophylaxis in patients at greater risk of upper extremity deep venous thrombosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc

  13. Public Perception of Extreme Cold Weather-Related Health Risk in a Cold Area of Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ban, Jie; Lan, Li; Yang, Chao; Wang, Jian; Chen, Chen; Huang, Ganlin; Li, Tiantian

    2017-08-01

    A need exists for public health strategies regarding extreme weather disasters, which in recent years have become more frequent. This study aimed to understand the public's perception of extreme cold and its related health risks, which may provide detailed information for public health preparedness during an extreme cold weather event. To evaluate public perceptions of cold-related health risk and to identify vulnerable groups, we collected responses from 891 participants in a face-to-face survey in Harbin, China. Public perception was measured by calculating the score for each perception question. Locals perceived that extreme cold weather and related health risks were serious, but thought they could not avoid these risks. The significant difference in perceived acceptance level between age groups suggested that the elderly are a "high health risk, low risk perception" group, meaning that they are relatively more vulnerable owing to their high susceptibility and low awareness of the health risks associated with extreme cold weather. The elderly should be a priority in risk communication and health protective interventions. This study demonstrated that introducing risk perception into the public health field can identify vulnerable groups with greater needs, which may improve the decision-making of public health intervention strategies. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:417-421).

  14. Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

    2011-01-01

    When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

  15. Risk Factors for Lower-Extremity Injuries Among Contemporary Dance Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Seters, Christine; van Rijn, Rogier M; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Stubbe, Janine H

    2017-10-10

    To determine whether student characteristics, lower-extremity kinematics, and strength are risk factors for sustaining lower-extremity injuries in preprofessional contemporary dancers. Prospective cohort study. Codarts University of the Arts. Forty-five first-year students of Bachelor Dance and Bachelor Dance Teacher. At the beginning of the academic year, the injury history (only lower-extremity) and student characteristics (age, sex, educational program) were assessed using a questionnaire. Besides, lower-extremity kinematics [single-leg squat (SLS)], strength (countermovement jump) and height and weight (body mass index) were measured during a physical performance test. Substantial lower-extremity injuries during the academic year were defined as any problems leading to moderate or severe reductions in training volume or in performance, or complete inability to participate in dance at least once during follow-up as measured with the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center (OSTRC) Questionnaire on Health Problems. Injuries were recorded on a monthly basis using a questionnaire. Analyses on leg-level were performed using generalized estimating equations to test the associations between substantial lower-extremity injuries and potential risk factors. The 1-year incidence of lower-extremity injuries was 82.2%. Of these, 51.4% was a substantial lower-extremity injury. Multivariate analyses identified that ankle dorsiflexion during the SLS (OR 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.52) was a risk factor for a substantial lower-extremity injury. The findings indicate that contemporary dance students are at high risk for lower-extremity injuries. Therefore, the identified risk factor (ankle dorsiflexion) should be considered for prevention purposes.

  16. Risk factors for breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema: a meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yuhuan; Guo Qi; Liu Fenghua; Zhu Yaqun; Tian Ye

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To systematically evaluate the risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment and the strength of their associations. Methods: PubMed, Ovid, EMbase, and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify clinical trials published up to December 2012. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale;data analysis was performed by Stata 10.0 and RevMan 5.2; the strength of associations between risk factors and breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema was described as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Twenty-two studies involving 10106 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The risk factors for upper extremity lymphedema after breast cancer treatment mainly included axillary lymph node dissection (OR=2.72, 95% CI=1.06-6.99, P=0.038), hypertension (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.38-2.44, P=0.000), body mass index (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.22-2.32, P=0.001), and radiotherapy (OR=1.65, 95% CI=1.20-2.25, P=0.002), while no significant associations were found for such factors as chemotherapy, age, number of positive lymph nodes, and number of dissected lymph nodes. Conclusions: The incidence of upper extremity lymphedema is high among patients with breast cancer after treatment, and axillary lymph node dissection, hypertension,body mass index, and radiotherapy are the main risk factors for lymphedema after breast cancer treatment. (authors)

  17. Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Marsh, Stuart; Campus, Paola

    2013-04-01

    Extreme geohazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Exposure of human assets to geohazards has increased dramatically in recent decades, and the sensitivity of the built environment and the embedded socio-economic fabric have changed. We are putting the urban environment, including megacities, in harm's way. Paradoxically, innovation during recent decades, in particular, urban innovation, has increased the disaster risk and coupled this risk to the sustainability crisis. Only more innovation can reduce disaster risk and lead us out of the sustainability crisis. Extreme geohazards (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis) that occurred regularly throughout the last few millennia mostly did not cause major disasters because population density was low and the built environment was not sprawling into hazardous areas to the same extent as today. Similar extreme events today would cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. The Geohazards Community of Practice of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) with support from the European Science Foundation is preparing a white paper assessing the contemporary disaster risks associated with extreme geohazards and developing a vision for science and society to engage in deliberations addressing this risk (see http://www.geohazcop.org/projects/extgeowp). Risk awareness and monitoring is highly uneven across the world, and this creates two kinds of problems. Firstly, potential hazards are much more closely monitored in wealthy countries than in the developing world. But the largest hazards are global in nature, and it is critical to get as much forewarning as possible to develop an effective response. The disasters and near-misses of the past show that adherence to scientific

  18. Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

  19. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

    2018-05-01

    This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

  20. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Laetitia H. M.; Graham, Hilary M.; White, Piran C. L.

    2016-01-01

    The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events. PMID:27834843

  1. Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia H. M. Schmitt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies or Asia (seven studies, whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies, closely followed by flooding (six studies. No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

  2. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  3. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  4. Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2013-12-01

    Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

  5. Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

    2012-08-01

    In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Perdas extremas em mercados de risco Extreme losses in risk markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronaldo A Arraes

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Neste artigo, infere-se sobre a distribuição de valores extremos de uma variável aleatória representada pelas severas perdas diárias em investimentos financeiros. A Teoria dos Valores Extremos (TVE fundamenta a modelagem de eventos gravosos raros, com expressivas conseqüências econômicas associadas a probabilidades muito pequenas de ocorrerem. Uma das grandes preocupações, na análise de riscos, é desenvolver técnicas para prever essas ocorrências excepcionais. Assim, as caudas das distribuições desses eventos raros são importantes para o estudo do risco, tornando a TVE uma ferramenta de grande valia para a estimação mais acurada do risco dessas perdas elevadas. Investigou-se, neste trabalho, a estimação de perdas máximas esperadas para séries financeiras, empregando-se: i métodos tradicionais, que utilizaram todos os dados amostrais para analisar a variável aleatória em questão e ii a metodologia dos Valores Extremos, particularmente a da Distribuição Generalizada dos Valores Extremos (DGVE, que utilizou apenas um conjunto de máximos amostrais para a estimação das perdas máximas esperadas. Concluiu-se que os métodos tradicionais subestimaram as perdas esperadas, sobretudo nas proximidades dos limites das caudas das distribuições, e que a DGVE mostrou-se bem mais eficiente na previsão dessas perdas extremas nas séries analisadas: Ibovespa, Merval, Dow Jones.This paper aims to infer about the distribution of extremes values of a continuous random variable, represented as the severe daily losses in financial markets investments. The Extreme Value Theory (EVT plays a fundamental role in modeling rare events associated with great losses and very small probabilities of occurrence. One of the great concerns in risk management is to develop analytic techniques to foresee those exceptions. In that way, the tails of the rare losses' probability density function (pdf are of great importance in evaluating that kind of

  7. Risk factors for lower-extremity injuries among contemporary dance students

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Seters, Christine; van Rijn, Rogier M; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Stubbe, Janine H

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine whether student characteristics, lower-extremity kinematics, and strength are risk factors for sustaining lower-extremity injuries in preprofessional contemporary dancers. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Codarts University of the Arts. PATIENTS: Forty-five

  8. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  9. Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth

    2013-01-01

    Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

  10. Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

    2013-11-13

    Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

  11. Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

    2017-10-01

    Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

  13. Cerebral Damage May Be the Primary Risk Factor for Visual Impairment in Preschool Children Born Extremely Premature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slidsborg, Carina; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To investigate the importance of cerebral damage and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) for visual impairment in preschool children born extremely premature and to determine the primary risk factor of the two. METHODS A clinical follow-up study of a Danish national cohort of children born......, 3.0-25.2; P visual impairment in children born extremely premature, and cerebral damage may be the primary risk...... participants were identified through the National Birth Register and invited to participate in a clinical examination. The children were evaluated with regard to visual acuity, foveal sequelae, and maximum ROP stage and the presence of global developmental deficits (an indicator for cerebral damage...

  14. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  15. Concussion May Increase the Risk of Subsequent Lower Extremity Musculoskeletal Injury in Collegiate Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Daniel C; Jones, Debi; Harrison, Ashley; Moser, Michael; Tillman, Susan; Farmer, Kevin; Pass, Anthony; Clugston, James R; Hernandez, Jorge; Chmielewski, Terese L

    2017-05-01

    Laboratory-based studies on neuromuscular control after concussion and epidemiological studies suggest that concussion may increase the risk of subsequent musculoskeletal injury. The purpose of this study was to determine if athletes have an increased risk of lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after return to play from a concussion. Injury data were collected from 2006 to 2013 for men's football and for women's basketball, soccer and lacrosse at a National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I university. Ninety cases of in-season concussion in 73 athletes (52 male, 21 female) with return to play at least 30 days prior to the end of the season were identified. A period of up to 90 days of in-season competition following return to play was reviewed for time-loss injury. The same period was studied in up to two control athletes who had no concussion within the prior year and were matched for sport, starting status and position. Lower extremity musculoskeletal injuries occurred at a higher rate in the concussed athletes (45/90 or 50 %) than in the non-concussed athletes (30/148 or 20 %; P relationship between concussion and an increased risk of lower extremity musculoskeletal injury after return to play, and may have implications for current medical practice standards regarding evaluation and management of concussion injuries.

  16. Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Einmahl, J.H.J.; Li, J.; Liu, R.Y.

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate

  17. Thromboembolic Risk of Endovascular Intervention for Lower Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Philip; Echeverria, Angela; Poi, Mun J; Matos, Jesus; Bechara, Carlos F; Cheung, Mathew; Lin, Peter H

    2018-05-01

    This study evaluated the risk of thromboembolism during endovascular interventions in patients with symptomatic lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) METHODS: Clinical records of all patients who underwent endovascular interventions for symptomatic lower extremity DVT from 2001 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed using a prospectively maintained database. Only patients who received an inferior vena cava (IVC) filter were included in the analysis. Trapped intrafilter thrombus was assessed for procedure-related thromboembolism. Clinical outcomes of thrombus management and thromboembolism risk were analyzed. A total 172 patients (mean age 57.4 years, 98 females) who underwent 174 endovascular DVT interventions were included in the analysis. Treatment strategies included thrombolytic therapy (64%), mechanical thrombectomy (n = 86%), pharmacomechanical thrombolysis (51%), balloon angioplasty (98%), and stent placement (28%). Thrombectomy device used included AngioJet (56%), Trellis (19%), and Aspire (11%). Trapped IVC filter thrombus was identified in 58 patients (38%) based on the IVC venogram. No patient developed clinically evident pulmonary embolism (PE). IVC filter retrieval was performed in 98 patients (56%, mean 11.8 months after implantation). Multivariate analysis showed that iliac vein occlusion (P = 0.04) was predictive for procedure-related thromboembolism. Iliac vein thrombotic occlusion is associated with an increased thromboembolic risk in DVT intervention. Retrievable IVC filter should be considered when performing percutaneous thrombectomy in patients with iliac venous occlusion to prevent PE. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. WHO's health risk assessment of extremely low frequency electric fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repacholi, M.H.

    2003-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), WHOs scientific collaborating centres (including the UKs National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) and over 50 participating Member States are participants of WHOs International EMF Project. As part of WHOs health risk assessment process for extremely low frequency fields (ELFs), this workshop was convened by NRPB to assist WHO in evaluating potential health impacts of electrical currents and fields induced by ELF in molecules, cells, tissues and organs of the body. This paper describes the process by which WHO will conduct its health risk assessment. WHO is also trying to provide information on why exposure to ELF magnetic fields seems to be associated with an increased incidence of childhood leukaemia. Are there mechanisms that could lead to this health outcome or does the epidemiological evidence incorporate biases or other factors that need to be further explored? (author)

  19. Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

    2016-04-01

    The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of

  20. Risk factors for lower extremity injuries among male marathon runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Middelkoop, M; Kolkman, J; Van Ochten, J; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M A; Koes, B W

    2008-12-01

    The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for lower extremity injuries in male marathon runners. A random sample of 1500 recreational male marathon runners was drawn. Possible risk factors were obtained from a baseline questionnaire 1 month before the start of the marathon. Information on injuries sustained shortly before or during the marathon was obtained using a post-race questionnaire. Of the 694 male runners who responded to the baseline and post-race questionnaire, 28% suffered a self-reported running injury on the lower extremities in the month before or during the marathon run. More than six times race participation in the previous 12 months [odds ratio (OR) 1.66; confidence interval (CI) 1.08-2.56], a history of running injuries (OR 2.62; CI 1.82-3.78), high education level (OR 0.73; CI 0.51-1.04) and daily smoking (OR 0.23; CI 0.05-1.01) were associated with the occurrence of lower extremity injuries. Among the modifiable risk factor studies, a training distance training is a strong protective factor for knee injuries. Other training characteristics appear to have little or no effect on future injuries.

  1. Work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors for sick leave in patients with neck or upper extremity complaints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bot, Sandra D M; Terwee, Caroline B; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; van der Beek, Allard J; Bouter, Lex M; Dekker, Joost

    2007-08-01

    To study work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors for sick leave among patients who have visited their general practitioner for neck or upper extremity complaints. Three hundred and forty two patients with neck or upper extremity complaints completed self-report questionnaires at baseline and after 3 months. Cox regression models were used to investigate the association between work-related risk factors and sick leave (i.e., lost days from work due to neck or upper extremity complaints in 3 months). Effect modification by sick leave at baseline, sex, worrying and musculoskeletal co-morbidity was evaluated by adding product terms to the regression models. In the subgroup of patients who scored high on the pain copying scale "worrying" the hazard ratio of sick leave was 1.32 (95% CI 1.07-1.62) per 10% increase in heavy physical work. The subgroup of patients who were sitting for long periods of time had a reduced risk of sick leave as compared to patients who did not spend a lot of time sitting, again only in patients who scored high on the pain coping scale "worrying" (adjusted HR=0.17, 95%-CI 0.04-0.72). Other work-related risk factors were not significantly related to sick leave. Heavy physical work increased the risk of sick leave and prolonged sitting reduced the risk of sick leave in a subgroup of patients who worried much about their pain. Additional large longitudinal studies of sufficiently large size among employees with neck or upper extremity complaints are needed to confirm our results.

  2. A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

  3. A review of the risk factors for lower extremity overuse injuries in young elite female ballet dancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Erin Anne; Whatman, Chris; Harris, Nigel; Bradshaw, Elizabeth

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to review the evidence for selected risk factors of lower extremity overuse injuries in young elite female ballet dancers. An electronic search of key databases from 1969 to July 2013 was conducted using the keywords dancers, ballet dancers, athletes, adolescent, adolescence, young, injury, injuries, risk, overuse, lower limb, lower extremity, lower extremities, growth, maturation, menarche, alignment, and biomechanics. Thirteen published studies were retained for review. Results indicated that there is a high incidence of lower extremity overuse injuries in the target population. Primary risk factors identified included maturation, growth, and poor lower extremity alignment. Strong evidence from well-designed studies indicates that young elite female ballet dancers suffer from delayed onset of growth, maturation, menarche, and menstrual irregularities. However, there is little evidence that this deficit increases the risk of overuse injury, with the exception of stress fractures. Similarly, there is minimal evidence linking poor lower extremity alignment to increased risk of overuse injury. It is concluded that further prospective, longitudinal studies are required to clarify the relationship between growth, maturation, menarche, and lower extremity alignment, and the risk of lower extremity overuse injury in young elite female ballet dancers.

  4. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

  5. A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

    2016-04-01

    Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model

  6. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  7. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  8. Extreme lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamstrup, Pia R; Benn, Marianne; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne

    2008-01-01

    Elevated lipoprotein(a) levels are associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in some but not all studies. Limitations of previous studies include lack of risk estimates for extreme lipoprotein(a) levels, measurements in long-term frozen samples, no correction for regression dilution bias, and lack...... of absolute risk estimates in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that extreme lipoprotein(a) levels predict MI in the general population, measuring levels shortly after sampling, correcting for regression dilution bias, and calculating hazard ratios and absolute risk estimates....

  9. Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Canário

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

  10. Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz

    OpenAIRE

    Mainik, Georg; Mitov, Georgi; Rüschendorf, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Using daily returns of the S&P 500 stocks from 2001 to 2011, we perform a backtesting study of the portfolio optimization strategy based on the extreme risk index (ERI). This method uses multivariate extreme value theory to minimize the probability of large portfolio losses. With more than 400 stocks to choose from, our study seems to be the first application of extreme value techniques in portfolio management on a large scale. The primary aim of our investigation is the potential of ERI in p...

  11. Upper extremity injuries in Danish children aged 6–12, mechanisms, and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, J.; Jespersen, Eva; Verhagen, Evert

    2017-01-01

    was found suggesting that girls are at increased acute upper extremity risk compared to boys (HR: 1.40 95% CI: 0.97–2.04). The findings that most injuries occur after a fall, that injury risk increases over age and that girls seem to be at increased injury risk provides essential information to guide future...... caused by a fall. When corrected for exposure to physical activity, this resulted in an acute upper extremity injury incidence density of 0.18 per 1000 h of physical activity. The odds of sustaining an upper extremity injury was higher in the older children (HR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.10–3.09), a tendency...

  12. Extreme Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes: Risk Factors and Feto Maternal Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nihal Al Riyami

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM is defined as a rupture of the amniotic membranes occurring before 37 weeks of gestation and before the onset of labor. Extreme PPROM occurs prior to 26 weeks gestation and contributes to an increased risk of prematurity, leading to maternal and fetal complications. This study aims to estimate the risk factors associated with various maternal complications and to determine the worst outcomes in Omani females with extreme PPROM.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 44 women with extreme PPROM, who delivered at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH from January 2006 to December 2011. Women with incomplete information, multiple gestations, or a preterm delivery resulting from medical intervention, as well as women who delivered elsewhere were excluded from the study.Results: Forty-four women with extreme PPROM were included in our study. The results revealed the most important risk factor to be history of infection, which was noted in 24 study participants. The mean maternal age was 30 years. The mean gestational age at PPROM and at delivery were 20.7±3.2 (range: 16-26 weeks and 29.7±7.6 weeks (range: 17-40 weeks, respectively. The maternal complications observed in this study included; infection which was seen in 20 (45% patients, antepartum hemorrhage in 11 (25% patients, and cesarean section which was required in 12 (27% patients. There was no significant association between risk factors such as gestational age at delivery, parity, maternal age at PPROM, or maternal Body Mass Index (BMI and cesarean section rate. Infection played a major role, both as a risk factor and in causing extreme PPROM, which in turn increased in 12 patients (27%. In the multivariable model for predicting the need for cesarean section (gestational age at delivery, parity, maternal age at PPROM in years and maternal BMI, none of the factors were statistically significant.Conclusion: Overall

  13. Risk Factors and Indications for Readmission Following Lower Extremity Amputation in the ACS-NSQIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Thomas; Zhang, Jennifer Q.; Lo, Ruby C.; Fokkema, Margriet; McCallum, John C.; Buck, Dominique; Darling, Jeremy; Schermerhorn, Marc L.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Postoperative readmission, recently identified as a marker of hospital quality in the Affordable Care Act, is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs, yet data on readmission following lower extremity amputation is limited. We evaluated risk factors for readmission and post-discharge adverse events following lower extremity amputation in the ACS-NSQIP. STUDY DESIGN All patients undergoing transmetatarsal (TMA), below-knee (BKA) or above-knee amputation (AKA) in the 2011 – 2012 NSQIP were identified. Independent pre-discharge predictors of 30-day readmission were determined using multivariable logistic regression. Readmission indication and re-interventions, available in the 2012 NSQIP only, were also evaluated. RESULTS We identified 5,732 patients undergoing amputation (TMA: 12%; BKA: 51%; AKA: 37%). Readmission rate was 18%. Post-discharge mortality rate was 5% (TMA: 2%; BKA: 3%; AKA: 8%; preadmission included chronic nursing home residence (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.0–1.7), non-elective surgery (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1–1.7), prior revascularization/amputation (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1–1.7), preoperative congestive heart failure (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2–2.4), and preoperative dialysis (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2–1.9). Guillotine amputation (OR: .6; 95%CI: .4–.9) and non-home discharge (OR: .7; 95%CI: .6–1.0) were protective of readmission. Wound related complications accounted for 49% of readmissions. CONCLUSIONS Post discharge morbidity, mortality and readmission are common following lower extremity amputation. Closer follow up of high risk patients, optimization of medical comorbidities and aggressive management of wound infection may play a role in decreasing readmission and post discharge adverse events. PMID:24985536

  14. Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

  15. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Cindy H; Vagi, Sara J; Wolkin, Amy F; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S

    2014-01-01

    Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning.

  17. Shoe and field surface risk factors for acute lower extremity injuries among female youth soccer players

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kane, John W.; Gray, Kristen E.; Levy, Marni R.; Neradilek, Moni; Tencer, Allan F.; Polissar, Nayak L.; Schiff, Melissa A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Describe acute lower extremity injuries and evaluate extrinsic risk factors in female youth soccer Design Nested case-control study Setting Youth soccer clubs in Washington State, USA. Participants Female soccer players (N= 351) ages 11 to 15 years randomly selected from 4 soccer clubs from which 83% of their players were enrolled with complete follow-up for 92% of players. Interventions Injured players were interviewed regarding injury, field surface, shoe type, and position. Uninjured controls, matched on game or practice session, were also interviewed. Main Outcome Measures The association between risk factors and acute lower extremity injury using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results One hundred seventy-three acute lower extremity injuries occurred involving primarily the ankle (39.3%), knee (24.9%), and thigh (11.0%). Over half (52.9%) recovered within 1 week, while 30.2% lasted beyond 2 weeks. During practices, those injured were approximately 3-fold ( OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.49-5.31) more likely to play on grass than artificial turf and 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.03-5.96) more likely to wear cleats on grass than other shoe and surface combinations. During games injured players were 89% (95% CI 1.03-4.17) more likely to play defender compared to forward. Conclusions Half of the acute lower extremity injuries affected the ankle or knee. Grass surface and wearing cleats on grass increased training injuries. PMID:26327288

  18. Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm

    2006-08-01

    Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to

  19. Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

  20. Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change

  1. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  2. Doppler Sonographic Evaluation of Venogenic Extremity Swellings ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-14

    Sep 14, 2017 ... potentially lead to many complications including life-threatening pulmonary arterial thrombosis. Screening and confirmation ... and exclusion of acute lower extremity DVT. Duplex ultrasound is considered as the ... this study evaluates the role of Doppler sonography in the clinical management of suspected.

  3. Exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneja, Sutyajeet; Jiang, Chengsheng; Fisher, Jared; Upperman, Crystal Romeo; Mitchell, Clifford; Sapkota, Amir

    2016-04-27

    Several studies have investigated the association between asthma exacerbations and exposures to ambient temperature and precipitation. However, limited data exists regarding how extreme events, projected to grow in frequency, intensity, and duration in the future in response to our changing climate, will impact the risk of hospitalization for asthma. The objective of our study was to quantify the association between frequency of extreme heat and precipitation events and increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland between 2000 and 2012. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to examine the association between exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of hospitalization for asthma (ICD-9 code 493, n = 115,923). Occurrence of extreme heat events in Maryland increased the risk of same day hospitalization for asthma (lag 0) by 3 % (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.03, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00, 1.07), with a considerably higher risk observed for extreme heat events that occur during summer months (OR: 1.23, 95 % CI: 1.15, 1.33). Likewise, summertime extreme precipitation events increased the risk of hospitalization for asthma by 11 % in Maryland (OR: 1.11, 95 % CI: 1.06, 1.17). Across age groups, increase in risk for asthma hospitalization from exposure to extreme heat event during the summer months was most pronounced among youth and adults, while those related to extreme precipitation event was highest among ≤4 year olds. Exposure to extreme heat and extreme precipitation events, particularly during summertime, is associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland. Our results suggest that projected increases in frequency of extreme heat and precipitation event will have significant impact on public health.

  4. Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

  5. A web-based study of bipolarity and impulsivity in athletes engaging in extreme and high-risk sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudek, Dominika; Siwek, Marcin; Jaeschke, Rafał; Drozdowicz, Katarzyna; Styczeń, Krzysztof; Arciszewska, Aleksandra; Chrobak, Adrian A; Rybakowski, Janusz K

    2016-06-01

    We hypothesised that men and women who engage in extreme or high-risk sports would score higher on standardised measures of bipolarity and impulsivity compared to age and gender matched controls. Four-hundred and eighty extreme or high-risk athletes (255 males and 225 females) and 235 age-matched control persons (107 males and 128 females) were enrolled into the web-based case-control study. The Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ) and Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) were administered to screen for bipolarity and impulsive behaviours, respectively. Results indicated that extreme or high-risk athletes had significantly higher scores of bipolarity and impulsivity, and lower scores on cognitive complexity of the BIS-11, compared to controls. Further, there were positive correlations between the MDQ and BIS-11 scores. These results showed greater rates of bipolarity and impulsivity, in the extreme or high-risk athletes, suggesting these measures are sensitive to high-risk behaviours.

  6. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  7. Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess

  8. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  9. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  10. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  11. Extreme Weight-Control Behaviors and Suicide Risk among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Emily R.; Weiler, Robert M.; Barnett, Tracey E.; Pealer, Lisa N.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Suicide is the third leading cause of death for people ages 15-19. Research has established an association across numerous risk factors and suicide, including depression, substance abuse, bullying victimization, and feelings of alienation. However, the connection between disordered eating as manifested in extreme weight-control…

  12. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

  14. Examining Risk-Taking Behavior and Sensation Seeking Requirement in Extreme Athletes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agilonu, Ali; Bastug, Gulsum; Mutlu, Tonguc Osman; Pala, Adem

    2017-01-01

    Extreme sports are sport branches which include actions, adventures, risks and difficulties more rather than other sports. Special materials are used in sport branches such as surfing, kite surfing, sailing, snowboarding, paragliding, diving, mountaineering, motor sports and adrenaline release is more rather than in other sport branches. On the…

  15. 16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk... TO OTHER ACTS UNDER THE CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT § 1145.3 Extremely flammable contact adhesives... associated with certain extremely flammable contact adhesives under the Consumer Product Safety Act rather...

  16. Back and upper extremity disorders among enlisted U.S. Marines: burden and individual risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, G D; Feuerstein, M; Arroyo, F

    2001-11-01

    Although musculoskeletal disorders of the low back and upper extremities can affect military readiness, little is known about their extent and risk factors in the U.S. Marine Corps. Using the Defense Medical Epidemiology and Defense Medical Surveillance System databases, back and upper extremity diagnostic categories were among the top four sources of outpatient visits and duty limitation among enlisted Marines. Back disorders were also found to be the fifth most common cause for lost time. Subsequently, high-risk occupations were identified, age-related trends for clinic visit rates were determined, and rate ratios were computed for the top 15 low back and upper extremity diagnoses among enlisted Marines from 1997 through 1998. Occupational categories with the highest rates of musculoskeletal-related outpatient visits included image interpretation, auditing and accounting, disturbsing, surveillance/target acquisition, and aircraft launch equipment. Significantly increasing linear trends in rates across age groups were found for most diagnoses. For 1998, age-specific rate ratios indicated significantly higher rates for most low back and upper extremity disorders for females; lower rank (i.e., E1-E4) was also a risk, but for fewer diagnoses. The findings emphasize the need to identify modifiable (e.g., work-related, individual) risk factors and to develop focused primary and secondary prevention programs for musculoskeletal disorders in the Marine Corps. Subsequently, these efforts can assist in reducing associated effects, maximizing resource utilization, and enhancing operational readiness.

  17. Motor Performance as Risk Factor for Lower Extremity Injuries in Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Lisbeth; Kristensen, Peter Lund; Junge, Tina

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Physical activity related injuries in children constitute a costly public health matter. The influence of motor performance on injury risk is unclear. The purpose was to examine if motor performance was a risk factor of traumatic and overuse lower extremity injuries in a normal population...... motor performance (core stability, vertical jump, shuttle run) was positively associated with traumatic and overuse injuries, and negatively (single leg hop) associated with traumatic injuries, indicating different influence on injury risk. Previous injury was a confounder affecting the effect size...... and the significance. More studies are needed to consolidate the findings, to clarify the influence of different performance tests on different types of injuries and to examine the influence of behaviour in relation to injury risk....

  18. Risk Management in the Original Extreme Sporting Event: The Pole Vault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemiller, Jim; Hardin, Robin

    2010-01-01

    The pole vault was considered the ultimate test of physical ability and daring before the advent of modern extreme sports such as skateboarding, snowboarding, and mountain biking. The inherent risks of the pole vault have been well documented. The National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research reported in 2007 that the catastrophic injury…

  19. Evaluation of BICRON NE MCP DXT-RAD passive extremity dosemeter

    CERN Document Server

    Yuen, P S; Frketich, G; Rotunda, J

    1999-01-01

    Passive extremity dosemeters currently used in dosimetry communities worldwide have shortcomings. In general, an extremity dosemeter has too thick a detector element, and the dosemeter response is highly energy dependent for beta rays with energies ranging from 200 keV to 2 MeV. It often does not have dosemeter identification, causing problems in the chain of custody. It is often read manually, rendering reading/packing operations very labour intensive. As a result of collaboration between AECL and BICRON NE, a new extremity dosemeter, incorporating a highly sensitive LiF:Mg,Cu,P TLD and tentatively code named MCP DXT-RAD, was developed. It has been evaluated for radiological performance against an ISO draft standard for extremity dosemeters in twelve categories: homogeneity, detection threshold, beta ray energy response, beta angular response, photon energy response, photon angular response, reproducibility, stability under various climatic conditions, linearity, residue, self irradiation, and effect of ligh...

  20. Violent Extremism, Community-Based Violence Prevention, and Mental Health Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weine, Stevan M; Stone, Andrew; Saeed, Aliya; Shanfield, Stephen; Beahrs, John; Gutman, Alisa; Mihajlovic, Aida

    2017-01-01

    New community-based initiatives being developed to address violent extremism in the United States are utilizing mental health services and leadership. This article reviews current approaches to preventing violent extremism, the contribution that mental illness and psychosocial problems can make to violent extremism, and the rationale for integrating mental health strategies into preventing violent extremism. The authors describe a community-based targeted violence prevention model and the potential roles of mental health professionals. This model consists of a multidisciplinary team that assesses at-risk individuals with comprehensive threat and behavioral evaluations, arranges for ongoing support and treatment, conducts follow-up evaluations, and offers outreach, education, and resources for communities. This model would enable mental health professionals in local communities to play key roles in preventing violent extremism through their practice and leadership.

  1. Mortality associated with extremity injuries compared with other types of trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanches JEA

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available José Eduardo Arantes Sanches1, José Maria Pereira de Godoy3, André Luciano Baitello2, Alceu Gomes Chueire11Departments of Orthopedic and Traumatology, 2Trauma, 3Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, São Jose do Rio Preto, BrazilBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate one-month hospital mortality in victims with injuries of the extremities.Methods: All accident victims admitted to the Hospital de Base in São José do Rio Preto, Brazil, during the period from July 2004 to June 2005, were evaluated in an observational study. Patients were classified using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS. Patients with severe injuries of the extremities (AIS 3–4 were compared with those without injuries or with minor extremity injuries (AIS 0–2.Results: A total of 3489 accident victims were evaluated; 3244 (92.98% did not suffer injuries or had minor injuries of the extremities (AIS 0–2 and 245 (7.02% had severe injuries (AIS 3–4. Of the 245 patients with AIS 3–4 extremity injuries, 13 (5.31% patients died, and of those without severe injuries to the extremities, 34 (1.05% died (Fisher’s Exact test P = 0.0000, relative risk 5.063, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.707–9.467.Conclusion: Patients with injuries of the extremities are at greater risk of death than accident victims with other types of trauma.Keywords: trauma, extremities, mortality, Brazil

  2. Assessment of the risk of falling with the use of timed up and go test in the elderly with lower extremity osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zasadzka, Ewa; Borowicz, Adrianna Maria; Roszak, Magdalena; Pawlaczyk, Mariola

    2015-01-01

    Falling in the elderly results in a significant number of admissions to hospitals and long-term care facilities, especially among patients with lower extremity osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of the study was to assess the risk of falling in adults older than 60 years with OA using timed up and go (TUG) test. A total of 187 patients (aged >60 years) were enrolled in the study. The assessment included: basic activities of daily living (ADLs), lower extremity strength with the use of the 30-second chair stand test (30 CST), and assessment of the risk of falling (TUG test). Pain intensity was evaluated with the numeric rating scale (NRS). The TUG test results were significantly better in younger OA patients (aged 60-69 years), as compared with their older peers (aged 70-79 years; P80 years; Pwomen than men (Pfalls was significantly higher in the group of subjects who scored ≥13.5 when compared to risk of falling, which increases with progressing age, pain, and muscle weakness. It seems prudent to identify individuals at a high risk of falling and to propose an adequate treatment for them.

  3. Evaluation of high resolution spatio-temporal precipitation extremes from a stochastic weather generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, O. B.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    Spatio-temporal rainfall is modelled for the North-Eastern part of Zealand (Denmark) using the Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model as implemented in the RainSim software. Hourly precipitation series for fitting the model are obtained from a dense network of tipping bucket rain...... gauges in the model area. The spatiotemporal performance of the model with respect to precipitation extremes is evaluated in the points of a 2x2 km regular grid covering the full model area. The model satisfactorily reproduces the extreme behaviour of the observed precipitation with respect to event...... intensity levels and unconditional spatial correlation when evaluated using an event based ranking approach at point scale and an advanced spatiotemporal coupling of extreme events. Prospectively the model can be used as a tool to evaluate the impact of climate change without relying on precipitation output...

  4. Evaluation of high resolution spatio-temporal precipitation extremes from a stochastic weather generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, O. B.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    gauges in the model area. The spatio-temporal performance of the model with respect to precipitation extremes is evaluated in the points of a 2x2 km regular grid covering the full model area. The model satisfactorily reproduces the extreme behaviour of the observed precipitation with respect to event...... intensity levels and unconditional spatial correlation when evaluated using an event based ranking approach at point scale and an advanced spatio-temporal coupling of extreme events. Prospectively the model can be used as a tool to evaluate the impact of climate change without relying onprecipitation output......Spatio-temporal rainfall is modelled for the North-Eastern part of Zealand (Denmark) using the Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model as implemented in the RainSim software. Hourly precipitation series for fitting the model are obtained from a dense network of tipping bucket rain...

  5. Mitigating the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency: the case of Jordan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schyns, Joseph Franciscus; Hamaideh, A.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Mekonnen, Mesfin; Schyns, M.

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on

  6. Arm Volumetry Versus Upper Extremity Lymphedema Index: Validity of Upper Extremity Lymphedema Index for Body-Type Corrected Arm Volume Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Nana; Yamamoto, Takumi; Hayashi, Nobuko; Hayashi, Akitatsu; Iida, Takuya; Koshima, Isao

    2016-06-01

    Volumetry, measurement of extremity volume, is a commonly used method for upper extremity lymphedema (UEL) evaluation. However, comparison between different patients with different physiques is difficult with volumetry, because body-type difference greatly affects arm volume. Seventy arms of 35 participants who had no history of arm edema or breast cancer were evaluated. Arm volume was calculated using a summed truncated cone model, and UEL index was calculated using circumferences and body mass index (BMI). Examinees' BMI was classified into 3 groups, namely, low BMI (BMI, 25 kg/m). Arm volume and UEL index were compared with corresponding BMI groups. Mean (SD) arm volume was 1090.9 (205.5) mL, and UEL index 96.9 (5.6). There were significant differences in arm volume between BMI groups [low BMI vs middle BMI vs high BMI, 945.2 (107.4) vs 1045.2 (87.5) vs 1443.1 (244.4) mL, P 0.5]. Arm volume significantly increased with increase of BMI, whereas UEL index stayed constant regardless of BMI. Upper extremity lymphedema index would allow better body-type corrected arm volume evaluation compared with arm volumetry.

  7. A water risk index for portfolio exposure to climatic extremes: conceptualization and an application to the mining industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnafous, Luc; Lall, Upmanu; Siegel, Jason

    2017-04-01

    Corporations, industries and non-governmental organizations have become increasingly concerned with growing water risks in many parts of the world. Most of the focus has been on water scarcity and competition for the resource between agriculture, urban users, ecology and industry. However, water risks are multi-dimensional. Water-related hazards include flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. In other words, for a multi-national corporation, it is possible that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, from an investor's perspective, a need exists for a water risk index that allows for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. This paper represents a first attempt to develop an index for financial exposure of a geographically diversified, global portfolio to the time-varying risk of climatic extremes using long daily global rainfall datasets derived from climate re-analysis models. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how the index can be developed. We discuss how companies can use it to explore their corporate exposure, and what they may need to disclose to investors and

  8. Coronary arterial Disease associated with arteriosclerosis in lower extremity: Angiographic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ji Hye; Chung, Jin Wook; Lee, Seon Kyu; Han, Joon Koo; Park, Jae Hyung; Kim, Jae Seung; Han, Man Chung

    1993-01-01

    We performed both peripheral and coronary angiographies in 52 patients with an arteriosclerosis in lower extremities. The severity of arteriosclerotic narrowing of the coronary and peripheral arteries were compared on angiographies. An angiographic vascular score(AVS, 0-5) reflecting the number and the degree of stenosis in 12 lower extremity arteries and three major coronary arteries was assigned to each angiogram and the sun of scores in the lower extremity arteries was compared with the incidence of significant coronary artery disease (more than grade 3) and coronary score. Relation of incidence and severity of vascular stenosis and risk factors (diabetes metallitus, hypertension, smoking, and hypercholesterolemia) was also analyzed. Thirty-four of 52 patients (65%) had an angiographically significant coronary artery disease. Thirteen of these 34 patients (38%) had no clinical symptom and sign of the ischemic heart disease. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence and severity of coronary artery disease between high (more than 30) and low AVS group in lower extremity (p>0.14). All patients had at least one risk factor and 49 of 52 patients (94%) had multiple risk factors. Coronary angiography was normal in there patients with only one risk factors, and angiographically significant coronary artery disease existed in nine of 16 cases (56.3%) with two risk factors. 13 of 17 case (76.5%) with three risk factors, and 12 of 16 cases (75.0%) with all four risk factors. There were no significant correlations between individual risk factors and incidence, severity of arteriosclerosis in coronary and lower extremity arteries. In conclusion, angiographic evaluation of the coronary artery disease in patients with lower extremity arteriosclerosis is necessary because of the high chance of coronary artery disease and difficulty in the prediction of coronary artery disease with a severity of the peripheral arteriosclerosis, presence of various risk

  9. Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwager, Monika; Johst, Karin; Jeltsch, Florian

    2006-06-01

    Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

  10. [Risk factors for lower extremity amputation in patients with diabetic foot].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, B; Yang, C Z; Wu, S B; Zhang, D; Wang, L N; Xiao, L; Chen, Y; Wang, C R; Tong, A; Zhou, X F; Li, X H; Guan, X H

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To explore the risk factors for lower extremity amputation in patients with diabetic foot. Methods: The clinical data of 1 771 patients with diabetic foot at the Air Force General Hospital of PLA from November 2001 to April 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into the non-amputation and amputation groups. Within the amputation group, subjects were further divided into the minor and major amputation subgroups. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between risk factors and lower extremity amputation. Results: Among 1 771 patients with diabetic foot, 323 of them (18.24%) were in the amputation group (major amputation: 41; minor amputation: 282) and 1 448 (81.76%) in the non-amputation group. Compared with non-amputation patients, those in the amputation group had a longer hospital stay and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)levels. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), C-reaction protein (CRP), ESR, ferritin, fibrinogen and WBC levels of the amputation group were higher, while hemoglobin albumin, transferrin, TC, TG, HDL-C and LDL-C were lower than those of the non-amputation group (all P diabetic foot. Conclusion: Wagner's grade, ischemia of lower limbs and infection are closely associated with amputation of diabetic foot patients.

  11. The extreme risk of personal data breaches and the erosion of privacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Spencer; Maillart, Thomas; Sornette, Didier

    2016-01-01

    Personal data breaches from organisations, enabling mass identity fraud, constitute an extreme risk. This risk worsens daily as an ever-growing amount of personal data are stored by organisations and on-line, and the attack surface surrounding this data becomes larger and harder to secure. Further, breached information is distributed and accumulates in the hands of cyber criminals, thus driving a cumulative erosion of privacy. Statistical modeling of breach data from 2000 through 2015 provides insights into this risk: A current maximum breach size of about 200 million is detected, and is expected to grow by fifty percent over the next five years. The breach sizes are found to be well modeled by an extremely heavy tailed truncated Pareto distribution, with tail exponent parameter decreasing linearly from 0.57 in 2007 to 0.37 in 2015. With this current model, given a breach contains above fifty thousand items, there is a ten percent probability of exceeding ten million. A size effect is unearthed where both the frequency and severity of breaches scale with organisation size like s0.6. Projections indicate that the total amount of breached information is expected to double from two to four billion items within the next five years, eclipsing the population of users of the Internet. This massive and uncontrolled dissemination of personal identities raises fundamental concerns about privacy.

  12. Work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors for sick leave in patients with neck or upper extremity complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bot, S.D.M.; Terwee, C.B.; Windt, D.A.W.M. van der; Beek, A.J. van der; Bouter, L.M.; Dekker, J.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: To study work-related physical and psychosocial risk factors for sick leave among patients who have visited their general practitioner for neck or upper extremity complaints. Methods: Three hundred and forty two patients with neck or upper extremity complaints completed self-report

  13. Intra-seasonal risk of agriculturally-relevant weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boansi, David; Tambo, Justice A.; Müller, Marc

    2018-01-01

    Using household survey data and historical daily climate data for 29 communities across Upper East Ghana and Southwest Burkina Faso, we document climatic conditions deemed major threat to farming in the West African Sudan Savanna and assess risks posed by such conditions over the period 1997-2014. Based on farmers' perception, it is found that drought, low rainfall, intense precipitation, flooding, erratic rainfall pattern, extremely high temperatures, delayed rains, and early cessation of rains are the major threats farmers face. Using first-order Markov chain model and relevant indices for monitoring weather extremes, it is discovered that climatic risk is a general inherent attribute of the rainy season in the study area. Due to recent changes in onset of rains and length of the rainy season, some farmers have either resorted to early planting of drought-hardy crops, late planting of drought-sensitive crops, or spreading of planting across the first 3 months of the season to moderate harm. Each of these planting decisions however has some risk implications. The months of May, June, and October are found to be more susceptible to relatively longer duration of dry and hot spells, while July, August, and September are found to be more susceptible to intense precipitation and flooding. To moderate harm from anticipated weather extremes, farmers need to adjust their cropping calendar, adopt appropriate crop varieties, and implement soil and water management practices. For policy makers and other stakeholders, we recommend the supply of timely and accurate weather forecasts to guide farmers in their seasonal cropping decisions and investment in/installation of low cost irrigation facilities to enhance the practice of supplemental irrigation.

  14. Lower extremity functional tests and risk of injury in division iii collegiate athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumitt, Jason; Heiderscheit, Bryan C; Manske, Robert C; Niemuth, Paul E; Rauh, Mitchell J

    2013-06-01

    Functional tests have been used primarily to assess an athlete's fitness or readiness to return to sport. The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to determine the ability of the standing long jump (SLJ) test, the single-leg hop (SLH) for distance test, and the lower extremity functional test (LEFT) as preseason screening tools to identify collegiate athletes who may be at increased risk for a time-loss sports-related low back or lower extremity injury. A total of 193 Division III athletes from 15 university teams (110 females, age 19.1 ± 1.1 y; 83 males, age 19.5 ± 1.3 y) were tested prior to their sports seasons. Athletes performed the functional tests in the following sequence: SLJ, SLH, LEFT. The athletes were then prospectively followed during their sports season for occurrence of low back or LE injury. Female athletes who completed the LEFT in $118 s were 6 times more likely (OR=6.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 31.7) to sustain a thigh or knee injury. Male athletes who completed the LEFT in #100 s were more likely to experience a time-loss injury to the low back or LE (OR=3.2, 95% CI: 1.1, 9.5) or a foot or ankle injury (OR=6.7, 95% CI: 1.5, 29.7) than male athletes who completed the LEFT in 101 s or more. Female athletes with a greater than 10% side-to-side asymmetry between SLH distances had a 4-fold increase in foot or ankle injury (cut point: >10%; OR=4.4, 95% CI: 1.2, 15.4). Male athletes with SLH distances (either leg) at least 75% of their height had at least a 3-fold increase (OR=3.6, 95% CI: 1.2, 11.2 for the right LE; OR=3.6, 95% CI: 1.2, 11.2 for left LE) in low back or LE injury. The LEFT and the SLH tests appear useful in identifying Division III athletes at risk for a low back or lower extremity sports injury. Thus, these tests warrant further consideration as preparticipatory screening examination tools for sport injury in this population. The single-leg hop for distance and the lower extremity functional test, when administered to Division III

  15. Evaluating the MSG satellite Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate for extreme rainfall monitoring over northern Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saoussen Dhib

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge and evaluation of extreme precipitation is important for water resources and flood risk management, soil and land degradation, and other environmental issues. Due to the high potential threat to local infrastructure, such as buildings, roads and power supplies, heavy precipitation can have an important social and economic impact on society. At present, satellite derived precipitation estimates are becoming more readily available. This paper aims to investigate the potential use of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate (MPE for extreme rainfall assessment in Tunisia. The MSGMPE data combine microwave rain rate estimations with SEVIRI thermal infrared channel data, using an EUMETSAT production chain in near real time mode. The MPE data can therefore be used in a now-casting mode, and are potentially useful for extreme weather early warning and monitoring. Daily precipitation observed across an in situ gauge network in the north of Tunisia were used during the period 2007–2009 for validation of the MPE extreme event data. As a first test of the MSGMPE product's performance, very light to moderate rainfall classes, occurring between January and October 2007, were evaluated. Extreme rainfall events were then selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (>50 mm/day occurring at least at one ground station. Spatial interpolation methods were applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October and the wet winter season (from November to April. Interpolated gauge rainfall maps were then compared to MSGMPE data available from the EUMETSAT UMARF archive or from the GEONETCast direct dissemination system. The summation of the MPE data at 5 and/or 15 min time intervals over a 24 h period, provided a basis for comparison. The MSGMPE product was not very effective in the detection of very light and light rain events. Better results were obtained for the slightly

  16. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

  17. Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity - acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wabitsch, Martin; Moss, Anja; Reinehr, Thomas; Wiegand, Susanna; Kiess, Wieland; Scherag, André; Holl, Reinhard; Holle, Rolf; Hebebrand, Johannes

    2013-08-29

    . Our aim is to evaluate realistic treatment options. Therefore inclusion and exclusion criteria are minimized. We will recruit adolescents (age range 14-21 years) with extreme obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) (extreme group) within 24 months (120 per centre, 5 centres) as well as obese adolescents being at risk for developing extreme obesity (BMI ≥ 30-34.9 kg/m2) (at risk group). Follow-up evalutations will be performed biannually after inclusion for several years depending on additional funding. In sum, we aim at establishing evaluated health care structures for extremely obese adolescents. The results of YES will be of importance for a frequently neglected group of individuals, for whom current medicine has little to offer in terms of structured access to empirically evaluated therapeutic programs. Thus, the results will be both a help for the adolescents within the study and for others in the future given that the trial will lead to a positive finding. Moreover, it will help practitioners and therapists to deal with this neglected group of individuals. Project registration numbers for each subproject: 1.) ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01625325, NCT01703273, NCT01662271, NCT01632098; 2.) Germanctr.de: DRKS00004172, DRKS00004195, DRKS00004198, DRKS00004197.

  18. [Pollution evaluation and health risk assessment of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ping; Xue, Su-Yin; Wang, Sheng-Li; Nan, Zhong-Ren

    2014-03-01

    In order to evaluate the contamination and health risk of heavy metals from atmospheric deposition in Lanzhou, samples of atmospheric deposition were collected from 11 sampling sites respectively and their concentrations of heavy metals were determined. The results showed that the average contents of Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn and Mn were 82.22, 130.31, 4.34, 88.73, 40.64, 369.23 and 501.49 mg x kg(-1), respectively. There was great difference among different functional areas for all elements except Mn. According to the results, the enrichment factor score of Mn was close to 1, while the enrichment of Zn, Ni, Cu and Cr was more serious, and Pb and Cd were extremely enriched. The assessment results of geoaccumulation index of potential ecological risk indicated that the pollution of Cd in the atmospheric deposition of Lanzhou should be classified as extreme degree, and that of Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb as between slight and extreme degrees, and Cr as practically uncontaminated. Contaminations of atmospheric dust by heavy metals in October to the next March were more serious than those from April to August. Health risk assessment indicated that the heavy metals in atmospheric deposition were mainly ingested by human bodies through hand-mouth ingestion. The non-cancer risk was higher for children than for adults. The order of non-cancer hazard indexes of heavy metals was Pb > Cr > Cd > Cu > Ni > Zn. The non-cancer hazard indexes and carcinogen risks of heavy metals were both lower than their threshold values, suggesting that they will not harm the health.

  19. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  20. Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

    2007-12-01

    Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

  1. Risking your life without a second thought: intuitive decision-making and extreme altruism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Rand

    Full Text Available When faced with the chance to help someone in mortal danger, what is our first response? Do we leap into action, only later considering the risks to ourselves? Or must instinctive self-preservation be overcome by will-power in order to act? We investigate this question by examining the testimony of Carnegie Hero Medal Recipients (CHMRs, extreme altruists who risked their lives to save others. We collected published interviews with CHMRs where they described their decisions to help. We then had participants rate the intuitiveness versus deliberativeness of the decision-making process described in each CHMR statement. The statements were judged to be overwhelmingly dominated by intuition; to be significantly more intuitive than a set of control statements describing deliberative decision-making; and to not differ significantly from a set of intuitive control statements. This remained true when restricting to scenarios in which the CHMRs had sufficient time to reflect before acting if they had so chosen. Text-analysis software found similar results. These findings suggest that high-stakes extreme altruism may be largely motivated by automatic, intuitive processes.

  2. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  3. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  4. Stress fractures of the ribs and upper extremities: causation, evaluation, and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy L; Harris, Joshua D; Kaeding, Christopher C

    2013-08-01

    Stress fractures are common troublesome injuries in athletes and non-athletes. Historically, stress fractures have been thought to predominate in the lower extremities secondary to the repetitive stresses of impact loading. Stress injuries of the ribs and upper extremities are much less common and often unrecognized. Consequently, these injuries are often omitted from the differential diagnosis of rib or upper extremity pain. Given the infrequency of this diagnosis, few case reports or case series have reported on their precipitating activities and common locations. Appropriate evaluation for these injuries requires a thorough history and physical examination. Radiographs may be negative early, requiring bone scintigraphy or MRI to confirm the diagnosis. Nonoperative and operative treatment recommendations are made based on location, injury classification, and causative activity. An understanding of the most common locations of upper extremity stress fractures and their associated causative activities is essential for prompt diagnosis and optimal treatment.

  5. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Wiesböck, Laura; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

    2018-01-01

    There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events. PMID:29438345

  6. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filho, Walter Leal; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Nagy, Gustavo J; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Wiesböck, Laura; Ayal, Desalegn Y; Morgan, Edward A; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

    2018-02-13

    There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  7. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Leal Filho

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos, to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  8. Risk Factor, Job Stress and Quality of Life in Workers With Lower Extremity Pain Who Use Video Display Terminals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sehoon; Jang, Seong Ho; Lee, Kyu Hoon; Kim, Mi Jung; Park, Si-Bog; Han, Seung Hoon

    2018-02-01

    To investigate the general characteristics of video display terminal (VDT) workers with lower extremity pain, to identify the risk factors of work-related lower extremity pain, and to examine the relationship between work stress and health-related quality of life. A questionnaire about the general characteristics of the survey group and the musculoskeletal symptom was used. A questionnaire about job stress used the Korean Occupational Stress Scale and medical outcome study 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) to assess health-related quality of life. There were 1,711 subjects in the lower extremity group and 2,208 subjects in the control group. Age, sex, hobbies, and feeling of loading affected lower extremity pain as determined in a crossover analysis of all variables with and without lower extremity pain. There were no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of job stress and SF-36 values of the pain and control groups. Job stress in VDT workers was higher than average, and the quality of life decreased as the stress increased. Factors such as younger age, women, hobbies other than exercise, and feeling of loading influenced lower extremity pain of workers. Further long-term follow-up and supplementary studies are needed to identify risk factors for future lower extremity pain, taking into account ergonomic factors such as worker's posture.

  9. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  10. Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Qunying; Trethowan, Richard; Tan, Daniel K. Y.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as drought, frost risk and heat stress cause significant economic losses in Australia. The risk posed by ECEs in the wheat production systems of Australia could be better managed through the identification of safe flowering (SFW) and optimal time of sowing (TOS) windows. To address this issue, three locations (Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin), three cultivars (Suntop and Gregory for Narrabri, Mace for both Roseworthy and Merredin) and 20 TOS at 1-week intervals between 1 April and 12 August for the period from 1957 to 2007 were evaluated using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model. Simulation results show that (1) the average frequency of frost events decreased with TOS from 8 to 0 days (d) across the four cases (the combination of locations and cultivars), (2) the average frequency of heat stress events increased with TOS across all cases from 0 to 10 d, (3) soil moisture stress (SMS) increased with earlier TOS before reaching a plateau and then slightly decreasing for Suntop and Gregory at Narrabri and Mace at Roseworthy while SMS increased with TOS for Mace at Merredin from 0.1 to 0.8, (4) Mace at Merredin had the earliest and widest SFW (216-260) while Mace at Roseworthy had latest SFW (257-280), (5) frost risk and heat stress determine SFW at wetter sites (i.e. Narrabri and Roseworthy) while frost risk and SMS determine SFW at drier site (i.e. Merredin) and (6) the optimal TOS (window) to maximise wheat yield are 6-20 May, 13-27 May and 15 April at Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin, respectively. These findings provide important and specific information for wheat growers about the management of ECE risk on farm. Furthermore, the coupling of the APSIM crop models with state-of-the-art seasonal and intra-seasonal climate forecast information provides an important tool for improved management of the risk of ECEs in economically important cropping industries in the foreseeable future.

  11. Predicting Sport and Occupational Lower Extremity Injury Risk through Movement Quality Screening: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Jackie L; Booysen, Nadine; de la Motte, Sarah; Dennett, Liz; Lewis, Cara L.; Wilson, Dave; McKay, Carly; Warner, Martin; Padua, Darin; Emery, Carolyn A; Stokes, Maria

    2017-01-01

    Background Identification of risk factors for lower extremity (LE) injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations is required to inform injury prevention strategies. Objective To determine if poor movement quality is associated with LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. Material and methods Five electronic databases were systematically searched. Studies selected included: original data; analytic design; movement quality outcome (qualitative rating of functional compensation, asymmetry, impairment or efficiency of movement control); LE injury sustained with sport or military/first-responder occupation. The PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent authors assessed the quality [Downs and Black (DB) criteria] and level of evidence (Oxford Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine model). Results Of 4361 potential studies, 17 were included. The majority were low quality cohort studies (level 4 evidence). Median DB score was 11/33 (range 3–15). Heterogeneity in methodology and injury definition precluded meta-analyses. The Functional Movement Screen was the most common outcome investigated (15/17 studies). Four studies considered interrelationships between risk factors, seven reported diagnostic accuracy and none tested an intervention program targeting individuals identified as high-risk. There is inconsistent evidence that poor movement quality is associated with increased risk of LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. Conclusions Future research should focus on high quality cohort studies to identify the most relevant movement quality outcomes for predicting injury risk followed by developing and evaluating pre-participation screening and LE injury prevention programs through high quality randomized controlled trials targeting individuals at greater risk of injury based upon screening tests with validated test properties. PMID:27935483

  12. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  13. Risk factors for generally reduced productivity--a prospective cohort study of young adults with neck or upper-extremity musculoskeletal symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boström, Maria; Dellve, Lotta; Thomée, Sara; Hagberg, Mats

    2008-04-01

    This study prospectively assessed the importance of individual conditions and computer use during school or work and leisure time as risk factors for self-reported generally reduced productivity due to musculoskeletal complaints among young adults with musculoskeletal symptoms in the neck or upper extremities. A cohort of 2914 young adults (18-25 years, vocational school and college or university students) responded to an internet-based questionnaire concerning musculoskeletal symptoms related to individual conditions and computer use during school or work and leisure time that possibly affected general productivity. Prevalence ratios (PR) were used to assess prospective risk factors for generally reduced productivity. The selected study sample (N=1051) had reported neck or upper-extremity symptoms. At baseline, 280 of them reported reduced productivity. A follow-up of the 771 who reported no reduced productivity was carried out after 1 year. Risk factors for self-reported generally reduced productivity for those followed-up were symptoms in two or three locations or dimensions for the upper back or neck and the shoulders, arms, wrists, or hands [PR 2.30, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.40-3.78], symptoms persisting longer than 90 days in the shoulders, arms, wrists, or hands (PR 2.50, 95% CI 1.12-5.58), current symptoms in the shoulders, arms, wrists, or hands (PR 1.78, 95% CI 1.10-2.90) and computer use 8-14 hours/week during leisure time (PR 2.32, 95% CI 1.20-4.47). A stronger relationship was found if three or four risk factors were present. For women, a relationship was found between generally reduced productivity and widespread and current symptoms in the upper extremities. The main risk factors for generally reduced productivity due to musculoskeletal symptoms among young adults in this study were chronic symptoms in the upper extremities and widespread symptoms in the neck and upper extremities.

  14. Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, F.

    2009-12-01

    The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

  15. Alcohol Consumption Is a Risk Factor for Lower Extremity Arterial Disease in Chinese Patients with T2DM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To investigate the relationship between alcohol consumption and diabetic lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD in hospitalized patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Methods. We evaluated 138 hospitalized patients with T2DM who consumed alcohol and 833 who did not. We used propensity score matching to reduce the confounding bias between groups. Additionally, a logistic regression analysis was performed with the matched data to evaluate the LEAD risk. Results. In total, 119 pairs of patients who did and did not consume alcohol were matched. According to the logistic regression analysis, patients who consumed >8 U of alcohol/day had a higher risk of LEAD (odds ratio (OR: 6.35, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.78–22.65 than patients who did not consume alcohol. Additionally, after adjusting for age, gender, region, occupation, smoking status, body mass index, weight change, and duration of diabetes, the OR of peripheral artery disease after >20 years of alcohol consumption was 3.48 (95% CI: 1.09–11.15. Furthermore, we observed a significant dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and LEAD. Conclusions. Alcohol consumption may be a risk factor of LEAD in patients with T2DM. Patients with T2DM should be advised to stop drinking, to prevent the onset of LEAD.

  16. Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity – acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    elucidate medical and psychosocial outcomes. Our aim is to evaluate realistic treatment options. Therefore inclusion and exclusion criteria are minimized. We will recruit adolescents (age range 14–21 years) with extreme obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) (extreme group) within 24 months (120 per centre, 5 centres) as well as obese adolescents being at risk for developing extreme obesity (BMI ≥ 30 – 34.9 kg/m2) (at risk group). Follow-up evalutations will be performed biannually after inclusion for several years depending on additional funding. In sum, we aim at establishing evaluated health care structures for extremely obese adolescents. Discussion The results of YES will be of importance for a frequently neglected group of individuals, for whom current medicine has little to offer in terms of structured access to empirically evaluated therapeutic programs. Thus, the results will be both a help for the adolescents within the study and for others in the future given that the trial will lead to a positive finding. Moreover, it will help practitioners and therapists to deal with this neglected group of individuals. Trial registration Project registration numbers for each subproject: 1.) ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01625325, NCT01703273, NCT01662271, NCT01632098; 2.) Germanctr.de: DRKS00004172, DRKS00004195, DRKS00004198, DRKS00004197. PMID:23987123

  17. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  18. [Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

    2016-05-15

    Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

  19. Extreme Conditioning Programs: Potential Benefits and Potential Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapik, Joseph J

    2015-01-01

    CrossFit, Insanity, Gym Jones, and P90X are examples of extreme conditioning programs (ECPs). ECPs typically involve high-volume and high-intensity physical activities with short rest periods between movements and use of multiple joint exercises. Data on changes in fitness with ECPs are limited to CrossFit investigations that demonstrated improvements in muscle strength, muscular endurance, aerobic fitness, and body composition. However, no study has directly compared CrossFit or other ECPs to other more traditional forms of aerobic and resistance training within the same investigation. These direct comparisons are needed to more adequately evaluate the effectiveness of ECPs. Until these studies emerge, the comparisons with available literature suggest that improvements in CrossFit, in terms of muscular endurance (push-ups, sit-ups), strength, and aerobic capacity, appear to be similar to those seen in more traditional training programs. Investigations of injuries in ECPs are limited to two observational studies that suggest that the overall injury rate is similar to that seen in other exercise programs. Several cases of rhabdomyolysis and cervical carotid artery dissections have been reported during CrossFit training. The symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment of these are reviewed here. Until more data on ECPs emerge, physical training should be aligned with US Army doctrine. If ECPs are included in exercise programs, trainers should (1) have appropriate training certifications, (2) inspect exercise equipment regularly to assure safety, (3) introduce ECPs to new participants, (4) ensure medical clearance of Soldiers with special health problems before participation in ECPs, (4) tailor ECPs to the individual Soldier, (5) adjust rest periods to optimize recovery and reduce fatigue, (6) monitor Soldiers for signs of overtraining, rhabdomyolysis, and other problems, and (7) coordinate exercise programs with other unit training activities to eliminate redundant activities

  20. Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

    2009-01-01

    Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

  1. Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

    2009-07-15

    Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

  2. A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

  3. Predicting sport and occupational lower extremity injury risk through movement quality screening: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Jackie L; Booysen, Nadine; de la Motte, Sarah; Dennett, Liz; Lewis, Cara L; Wilson, Dave; McKay, Carly; Warner, Martin; Padua, Darin; Emery, Carolyn A; Stokes, Maria

    2017-04-01

    Identification of risk factors for lower extremity (LE) injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations is required to inform injury prevention strategies. To determine if poor movement quality is associated with LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. 5 electronic databases were systematically searched. Studies selected included original data; analytic design; movement quality outcome (qualitative rating of functional compensation, asymmetry, impairment or efficiency of movement control); LE injury sustained with sport or military/first-responder occupation. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. 2 independent authors assessed the quality (Downs and Black (DB) criteria) and level of evidence (Oxford Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine model). Of 4361 potential studies, 17 were included. The majority were low-quality cohort studies (level 4 evidence). Median DB score was 11/33 (range 3-15). Heterogeneity in methodology and injury definition precluded meta-analyses. The Functional Movement Screen was the most common outcome investigated (15/17 studies). 4 studies considered inter-relationships between risk factors, 7 reported diagnostic accuracy and none tested an intervention programme targeting individuals identified as high risk. There is inconsistent evidence that poor movement quality is associated with increased risk of LE injury in sport and military/first-responder occupations. Future research should focus on high-quality cohort studies to identify the most relevant movement quality outcomes for predicting injury risk followed by developing and evaluating preparticipation screening and LE injury prevention programmes through high-quality randomised controlled trials targeting individuals at greater risk of injury based on screening tests with validated test properties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

  4. Are pushing and pulling work-related risk factors for upper extremity symptoms? A systematic review of observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoozemans, M J M; Knelange, E B; Frings-Dresen, M H W; Veeger, H E J; Kuijer, P P F M

    2014-11-01

    Systematically review observational studies concerning the question whether workers that perform pushing/pulling activities have an increased risk for upper extremity symptoms as compared to workers that perform no pushing/pulling activities. A search in MEDLINE via PubMed and EMBASE was performed with work-related search terms combined with push/pushing/pull/pulling. Studies had to examine exposure to pushing/pulling in relation to upper extremity symptoms. Two authors performed the literature selection and assessment of the risk of bias in the studies independently. A best evidence synthesis was used to draw conclusions in terms of strong, moderate or conflicting/insufficient evidence. The search resulted in 4764 studies. Seven studies were included, with three of them of low risk of bias, in total including 8279 participants. A positive significant relationship with upper extremity symptoms was observed in all four prospective cohort studies with effect sizes varying between 1.5 and 4.9. Two out of the three remaining studies also reported a positive association with upper extremity symptoms. In addition, significant positive associations with neck/shoulder symptoms were found in two prospective cohort studies with effect sizes of 1.5 and 1.6, and with shoulder symptoms in one of two cross-sectional studies with an effect size of 2.1. There is strong evidence that pushing/pulling is related to upper extremity symptoms, specifically for shoulder symptoms. There is insufficient or conflicting evidence that pushing/pulling is related to (combinations of) upper arm, elbow, forearm, wrist or hand symptoms. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Current status and issues of external event PSA for extreme natural hazards after Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In-Kil; Hahm, Daegi; Kim, Min Kyu

    2014-01-01

    Extreme external events is emerged as significant risk contributor to the nuclear power plants after Fukushima Daiichi accident due to the catastrophic earthquake followed by great tsunami greater than a design basis. This accident shows that the extreme external events have the potential to simultaneously affect redundant and diverse safety systems and thereby induce common cause failure or common cause initiators. The probabilistic risk assessment methodology has been used for the risk assessment and safety improvement against the extreme natural hazards. The earthquake and tsunami hazard is an important issue for the nuclear industry in Korea. In this paper, the role and application of probabilistic safety assessment for the post Fukushima action will be introduced. For the evaluation of the extreme natural hazard, probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis is being performed for the safety enhancement. The research activity on the external event PSA and its interim results will be introduced with the issues to be solved in the future for the reliability enhancement of the risk analysis results. (authors)

  6. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  7. Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dron, Jacqueline S; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A; Robinson, John F; McIntyre, Adam D; Ban, Matthew R; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Hegele, Robert A

    2017-11-01

    HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  8. Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol[S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dron, Jacqueline S.; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A.; Robinson, John F.; McIntyre, Adam D.; Ban, Matthew R.; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J.; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude

    2017-01-01

    HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. PMID:28870971

  9. From One Extreme to the Other: Negative Evaluation Anxiety and Disordered Eating as Candidates for the Extreme Female Brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A. Bremser

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Simon Baron-Cohen pioneered the idea that different brain types evolved to process information in gender specific ways. Here we expand this approach to looking at eating disorders as a byproduct of the extreme female brain. The incidence of eating disorders is higher among females, and recent findings show that hormones may play a role in eating disorders. We present new evidence from four studies that both an empathizing bias and hyper-mentalizing (as measures of the extreme female brain; EFB are related to disordered eating and negative evaluation anxiety in women. We also advance the novel hypothesis that concerns about animal welfare (a unique expression of the EFB may account for the relationship between vegetarianism and eating disorders.

  10. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  11. Risk Formulations versus Comprehensive Uncertainty Characterizations for Climate Extremes and their Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parish, E. S.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    Climate extremes—defined inclusively as extreme hydro-metrological events and regional changes in climate patterns at decadal scales—and their impacts on natural, engineered or human systems, represent among the most significant knowledge-gaps in climate prediction and integrated assessments in a post-AR4 world. Risks and uncertainties are related but distinct concepts. However, their relevance to decision-support tools in the context of climate change is indisputable. The opportunities and challenges are presented with case studies developed for stakeholders and policy makers.

  12. Bottom Extreme-Ultraviolet-Sensitive Coating for Evaluation of the Absorption Coefficient of Ultrathin Film

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hijikata, Hayato; Kozawa, Takahiro; Tagawa, Seiichi; Takei, Satoshi

    2009-06-01

    A bottom extreme-ultraviolet-sensitive coating (BESC) for evaluation of the absorption coefficients of ultrathin films such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) resists was developed. This coating consists of a polymer, crosslinker, acid generator, and acid-responsive chromic dye and is formed by a conventional spin-coating method. By heating the film after spin-coating, a crosslinking reaction is induced and the coating becomes insoluble. A typical resist solution can be spin-coated on a substrate covered with the coating film. The evaluation of the linear absorption coefficients of polymer films was demonstrated by measuring the EUV absorption of BESC substrates on which various polymers were spin-coated.

  13. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  14. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  15. [Crossing borders. The motivation of extreme sportsmen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opaschowski, H W

    2005-08-01

    In his article "Crossing borders -- the motivation of extreme sportsmen" the author gets systematically to the bottom of the question of why extreme sportsmen voluntarily take risks and endanger themselves. Within the scope of a representative sampling 217 extreme sportsmen -- from the fields of mountain biking, trekking and free climbing, canoyning, river rafting and deep sea diving, paragliding, parachuting, bungee jumping and survival training -- give information about their personal motives. What fascinates them? The attraction of risk? The search for sensation? Or the drop out of everyday life? And what comes afterwards? Does in the end the whole life become an extreme sport? Fact is: they live extremely, because they want to move beyond well-trodden paths. To escape the boredom of everyday life they are searching for the kick, the thrill, the no-limit experience. It's about calculated risk between altitude flight and deep sea adventure.

  16. Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

  17. Analysis and evaluation of functional status of lower extremity amputee-appliance systems: an integrated approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguli, S

    1976-11-01

    This paper introduces an integrated, objective and biomechanically sound approach for the analysis and evaluation of the functional status of lower extremity amputee-appliance systems. The method is demonstrated here in its application to the unilateral lower extremity amputee-axillary crutches system and the unilateral below-knee amputee-PTB prosthesis system, both of which are commonly encountered in day-to-day rehabilitation practice.

  18. A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Salinas-Rodriguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional design standards for urban drainage systems are not set to deal with extreme rainfall events. As these events are becoming more frequent, there is room for proposing new planning approaches and standards that are flexible enough to cope with a wide range of rainfall events. In this paper, a semi risk-based approach is presented as a simple and practical way for the analysis and management of rainfall flooding at the precinct scale. This approach uses various rainfall events as input parameters for the analysis of the flood hazard and impacts, and categorises the flood risk in different levels, ranging from very low to very high risk. When visualised on a map, the insight into the risk levels across the precinct will enable engineers and spatial planners to identify and prioritise interventions to manage the flood risk. The approach is demonstrated for a sewer district in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using a one-dimensional (1D/two-dimensional (2D flood model. The risk level of this area is classified as being predominantly very low or low, with a couple of locations with high and very high risk. For these locations interventions, such as disconnection and lowering street profiles, have been proposed and analysed with the 1D/2D flood model. The interventions were shown to be effective in reducing the risk levels from very high/high risk to medium/low risk.

  19. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  20. Test-retest and interrater reliability of the functional lower extremity evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haitz, Karyn; Shultz, Rebecca; Hodgins, Melissa; Matheson, Gordon O

    2014-12-01

    Repeated-measures clinical measurement reliability study. To establish the reliability and face validity of the Functional Lower Extremity Evaluation (FLEE). The FLEE is a 45-minute battery of 8 standardized functional performance tests that measures 3 components of lower extremity function: control, power, and endurance. The reliability and normative values for the FLEE in healthy athletes are unknown. A face validity survey for the FLEE was sent to sports medicine personnel to evaluate the level of importance and frequency of clinical usage of each test included in the FLEE. The FLEE was then administered and rated for 40 uninjured athletes. To assess test-retest reliability, each athlete was tested twice, 1 week apart, by the same rater. To assess interrater reliability, 3 raters scored each athlete during 1 of the testing sessions. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to assess the test-retest and interrater reliability of each of the FLEE tests. In the face validity survey, the FLEE tests were rated as highly important by 58% to 71% of respondents but frequently used by only 26% to 45% of respondents. Interrater reliability intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.83 to 1.00, and test-retest reliability ranged from 0.71 to 0.95. The FLEE tests are considered clinically important for assessing lower extremity function by sports medicine personnel but are underused. The FLEE also is a reliable assessment tool. Future studies are required to determine if use of the FLEE to make return-to-play decisions may reduce reinjury rates.

  1. Intra-arterial Ultra-low-Dose CT Angiography of Lower Extremity in Diabetic Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Özgen, Ali, E-mail: draliozgen@hotmail.com [Yeditepe University Hospital, Department of Radiology (Turkey); Sanioğlu, Soner [Yeditepe University Hospital, Department of Cardiovascular Surgery (Turkey); Bingöl, Uğur Anıl [Yeditepe University Hospital, Department of Plastic Surgery (Turkey)

    2016-08-15

    PurposeTo image lower extremity arteries by CT angiography using a very low-dose intra-arterial contrast medium in patients with high risk of developing contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN).Materials and MethodsThree cases with long-standing diabetes mellitus and signs of lower extremity atherosclerotic disease were evaluated by CT angiography using 0.1 ml/kg of the body weight of contrast medium given via 10-cm-long 4F introducer by puncturing the CFA. Images were evaluated by an interventional radiologist and a cardiovascular surgeon. Density values of the lower extremity arteries were also calculated. Findings in two cases were compared with digital subtraction angiography images performed for percutaneous revascularization. Blood creatinine levels were followed for possible CIN.ResultsIntra-arterial CT angiography images were considered diagnostic in all patients and optimal in one patient. No patient developed CIN after intra-arterial CT angiography, while one patient developed CIN after percutaneous intervention.ConclusionIntra-arterial CT angiography of lower extremity might be performed in selected patients with high risk of developing CIN. Our limited experience suggests that as low as of 0.1 ml/kg of the body weight of contrast medium may result in adequate diagnostic imaging.

  2. Erosive rainfall in the Rio do Peixe Valley: Part III - Risk of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro J. Back

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Understanding the risks of extreme events related to soil erosion is important for adequate dimensioning of erosion and runoff control structures. The objective of this study was to determine the rainfall erosivity with different return periods for the Valley of the Rio do Peixe in Santa Catarina state, Brazil. Daily pluviographic data series from 1984 to 2014 from the Campos Novos, and Videira meteorological stations and from 1986 to 2014 from the Caçador station were used. The data series of maximum annual rainfall intensity in 30 min, maximum annual erosive rainfall, and total annual erosivity were analyzed for each station. The Gumbel-Chow distributions were adjusted and their adhesions were evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a significance level of 5%. The Gumbel-Chow distribution was adequate for the estimation of all studied variables. The mean annual erosivity corresponds to the return period of 2.25 years. The data series of the annual maximum individual rainfall erosivity coefficients varied from 47 to 50%.

  3. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  4. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  5. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  6. Extreme temperatures and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in six large Chinese cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Renjie; Li, Tiantian; Cai, Jing; Yan, Meilin; Zhao, Zhuohui; Kan, Haidong

    2014-12-01

    The seasonal trend of out-of-hospital coronary death (OHCD) and sudden cardiac death has been observed, but whether extreme temperature serves as a risk factor is rarely investigated. We therefore aimed to evaluate the impact of extreme temperatures on OHCDs in China. We obtained death records of 126,925 OHCDs from six large Chinese cities (Harbin, Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) during the period 2009-2011. The short-term associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were analysed with time-series methods in each city, using generalised additive Poisson regression models. We specified distributed lag non-linear models in studying the delayed effects of extreme temperature. We then applied Bayesian hierarchical models to combine the city-specific effect estimates. The associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were almost U-shaped or J-shaped. The pooled relative risks (RRs) of extreme cold temperatures over the lags 0-14 days comparing the 1st and 25th centile temperatures were 1.49 (95% posterior interval (PI) 1.26-1.76); the pooled RRs of extreme hot temperatures comparing the 99th and 75th centile temperatures were 1.53 (95% PI 1.27-1.84) for OHCDs. The RRs of extreme temperature on OHCD were higher if the patients with coronary heart disease were old, male and less educated. This multicity epidemiological study suggested that both extreme cold and hot temperatures posed significant risks on OHCDs, and might have important public health implications for the prevention of OHCD or sudden cardiac death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  7. Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the

  8. Sonographically Assessed Intra-Abdominal Fat And Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Adolescents with Extreme Obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Moss

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The metabolic and cardiovascular risk of obesity is predominantly defined through the amount of intra-abdominal fat (IAF. Regarding this risk and the benefits of weight reduction gender-specific differences have been described. The aim of this study was to examine the gender-specific relationship between IAF assessed via ultrasound and the cardiometabolic risk profile in extremely obese adolescents before and after weight loss. Methods: In 107 consecutively admitted adolescents (n = 59 girls, mean age 15.4 ± 2.6 years boys and 15.1 ± 2.1 years girls, mean BMI z-score 3.2 ± 0.6 boys and 3.5 ± 0.6 girls anthropometric and fasting laboratory chemical parameters were measured before and after an in-patient long-term therapy (mean durance 5.6 ± 2.3 months. IAF was determined by measuring the intra-abdominal depth (IAD via ultrasound. Results: IAD was higher in boys as compared to girls (58.0 ± 22.4 mm vs. 51.3 ± 16.0 mm. IAD values were positively associated with BMI-z scores, waist circumferences, HOMA-IR and serum levels of γGT, hs-CRP and IL-6 in both genders. In boys, but not in girls, IAD was significantly correlated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, serum levels of triglycerides, ALT as well as adiponectin and HDL-cholesterol. After a marked mean weight loss of -27.1 ± 16.2 kg (-20.1 ± 7.9% in boys and of -20.5 ± 11.5 kg (-17.3 ± 7.1% in girls, IAD decreased by -20.7 ± 16.2 mm (--32.4 ± 16.9% in boys and by -18.4 ± 12,7 mm (-34.3 ± 18.4% in girls, resulting in more pronounced ameliorations of cardiovascular risk factors in boys than in girls. Conclusions: The present study indicates that IAF assessed by ultrasound is a good indicator for the cardiometabolic risk factor profile in extremely obese adolescents. Associations between IAF and risk factors are more pronounced in boys than in girls.

  9. ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

    2017-04-01

    The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts

  10. Applicability of the tissue stem cell turnover concept on the validity of cumulative dose based radiation risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsuka, Kensuke; Hamada, Nobuyuki; Iwasaki, Toshiyasu; Yoshida, Kazuo

    2011-01-01

    The radiation protection system adopts the linear no-threshold model to achieve proper radiation protection for considering cancer risks resulting from radiation exposure. This model uses cumulative dose to a tissue for risk evaluation in which cumulative dose is related to the amount of DNA damage and consequential induction of gene mutation. In this concept, gene mutation accumulates in tissue stem cells, the putative target of carcinogenesis, with total dose given to the tissue. Unlike high-dose-rate exposure, epidemiological studies in high radiation background areas, such as Kerala in India, revealed that cancer risks is not elevated by the dose to the inhabitants, suggesting that there exists some mechanisms to eliminate the damage/mutation in the exposed tissue under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. In this report, the dynamics of tissue stem cell turnover is evaluated as a possible mechanism under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. To this end, we reviewed recent literatures studying tissue stem cell turnover, and found that great advances in stem cell research have made it possible to trace a fate of stem cells in tissues. Furthermore, turnover of tissue stem cells is found to occur after irradiation, due to competition of stem cells within tissues. This raises a possibility that radiation effects may not accumulate in a tissue depending on the dose-rate and duration of exposure period. (author)

  11. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  12. Moderate and extreme maternal obesity.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Abdelmaboud, M O

    2012-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of moderate and extreme obesity among an Irish obstetric population over a 10-year period, and to evaluate the obstetric features of such pregnancies. Of 31,869 women delivered during the years 2000-2009, there were 306 women in the study group, including 173 in the moderate or Class 2 obese category (BMI 35-39.9) and 133 in the extreme or Class 3 obese category (BMI > or = 40).The prevalence of obese women with BMI > or = 35 was 9.6 per 1000 (0.96%), with an upward trend observed from 2.1 per 1000 in the year 2000, to 11.8 per 1000 in the year 2009 (P = 0.001). There was an increase in emergency caesarean section (EMCS) risk for primigravida versus multigravid women, within both obese categories (P < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in EMCS rates observed between Class 2 and Class 3 obese women, when matched for parity. The prevalence of moderate and extreme obesity reported in this population is high, and appears to be increasing. The increased rates of abdominal delivery, and the levels of associated morbidity observed, have serious implications for such women embarking on pregnancy.

  13. Evaluation of a compound distribution based on weather pattern subsampling for extreme rainfall in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Blanchet

    2015-12-01

    SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation. Regional scores of evaluation are used in a split sample framework to compare the MEWP distribution with more general heavy-tailed distributions, in this case the Multi Generalized Pareto Weather Pattern (MGPWP distribution. The analysis shows the clear benefit obtained from seasonal and weather pattern-based subsampling for extreme value estimation. The MEWP distribution is found to have an overall better performance as compared with the MGPWP, which tends to overfit the data and lacks robustness. Finally, we take advantage of the split sample framework to present evidence for an increase in extreme rainfall in the southwestern part of Norway during the period 1979–2009, relative to 1948–1978.

  14. Evaluation and Comparison of Extremal Hypothesis-Based Regime Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishwar Joshi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Regime channels are important for stable canal design and to determine river response to environmental changes, e.g., due to the construction of a dam, land use change, and climate shifts. A plethora of methods is available describing the hydraulic geometry of alluvial rivers in the regime. However, comparison of these methods using the same set of data seems lacking. In this study, we evaluate and compare four different extremal hypothesis-based regime methods, namely minimization of Froude number (MFN, maximum entropy and minimum energy dissipation rate (ME and MEDR, maximum flow efficiency (MFE, and Millar’s method, by dividing regime channel data into sand and gravel beds. The results show that for sand bed channels MFN gives a very high accuracy of prediction for regime channel width and depth. For gravel bed channels we find that MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ give a very high accuracy of prediction for width and depth. Therefore the notion that extremal hypotheses which do not contain bank stability criteria are inappropriate for use is shown false as both MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ lack bank stability criteria. Also, we find that bank vegetation has significant influence in the prediction of hydraulic geometry by MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’.

  15. A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cerović Julija

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of value at risk gives estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. The motivation for this analysis lies in the desire to devote necessary attention to risks in Montenegro, and to approach to quantifying and managing risk more thoroughly. Objectives: This paper considers adequacy of the most recent approaches for quantifying market risk, especially of methods that are in the basis of extreme value theory, in Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether extreme value theory outperforms econometric and quantile evaluation of VaR in emerging stock markets such as Montenegrin market. Methods/Approach: Daily return of Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January, 2004 - February, 2014. Value at Risk results based on GARCH models, quantile estimation and extreme value theory are compared. Results: Results of the empirical analysis show that the assessments of Value at Risk based on extreme value theory outperform econometric and quantile evaluations. Conclusions: It is obvious that econometric evaluations (ARMA(2,0- GARCH(1,1 and RiskMetrics proved to be on the lower bound of possible Value at Risk movements. Risk estimation on emerging markets can be focused on methodology using extreme value theory that is more sophisticated as it has been proven to be the most cautious model when dealing with turbulent times and financial turmoil.

  16. Risk-based water resources planning: Coupling water allocation and water quality management under extreme droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Bussi, G.; Hall, J. W.; Whitehead, P. G.

    2016-12-01

    The main aim of water companies is to have a reliable and safe water supply system. To fulfil their duty the water companies have to consider both water quality and quantity issues and challenges. Climate change and population growth will have an impact on water resources both in terms of available water and river water quality. Traditionally, a distinct separation between water quality and abstraction has existed. However, water quality can be a bottleneck in a system since water treatment works can only treat water if it meets certain standards. For instance, high turbidity and large phytoplankton content can increase sharply the cost of treatment or even make river water unfit for human consumption purposes. It is vital for water companies to be able to characterise the quantity and quality of water under extreme weather events and to consider the occurrence of eventual periods when water abstraction has to cease due to water quality constraints. This will give them opportunity to decide on water resource planning and potential changes to reduce the system failure risk. We present a risk-based approach for incorporating extreme events, based on future climate change scenarios from a large ensemble of climate model realisations, into integrated water resources model through combined use of water allocation (WATHNET) and water quality (INCA) models. The annual frequency of imposed restrictions on demand is considered as measure of reliability. We tested our approach on Thames region, in the UK, with 100 extreme events. The results show increase in frequency of imposed restrictions when water quality constraints were considered. This indicates importance of considering water quality issues in drought management plans.

  17. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  18. Thiazide use is associated with reduced risk for incident lower extremity fractures in men with spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Laura D; Chin, Amy S; Lee, Todd A; Burns, Stephen P; Svircev, Jelena N; Hoenig, Helen M; Bailey, Lauren; Weaver, Frances M

    2014-06-01

    To determine the association between thiazide use and lower extremity fractures in patients who are men with a spinal cord injury (SCI). Cohort study from fiscal years 2002 to 2007. Medical centers. Men (N=6969) with an SCI from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Spinal Cord Dysfunction (SCD) Registry, including 1433 users of thiazides and 5536 nonusers of thiazides. Thiazide use versus nonuse. Incident lower extremity fractures. Among the men, 21% in the VA SCD Registry (fiscal years 2002-2007) included in these analyses used thiazide diuretics. There were 832 incident lower extremity fractures over the time period of this study: 110 fractures (7.7%) in 1433 thiazide users and 722 fractures (13%) in 5536 nonusers of thiazides. In unadjusted and adjusted models alike, thiazide use was associated with at least a one-quarter risk reduction in lower extremity fracture at any given point in time (unadjusted: hazard ratio (HR)=.75; 95% confidence interval (CI), .59-.94; adjusted: HR=.74; 95% CI, .58-.95). Thiazide use is common in men with SCI and is associated with a decreased likelihood for lower extremity fractures. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Extremity x-ray

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

  20. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pourmahabadian; J.N. Saraji; M. Aghabeighi H. Saddeghi-Naeeni

    2005-01-01

    The strain index (SI) is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE) disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The ai...

  1. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  2. Evaluation of TRMM 3B42V7 product on extreme precipitation measurements over peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paska, Jacquoelyne; Lau, Alvin M. S.; Tan, Mou Leong; Tan, Kok Chooi

    2017-10-01

    Climate variability has become a matter worth our attention as this issue has unveiled to the extreme water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Increments in heavy precipitation have happened over the past century and future climate scenarios show that it may alter the recurrence, timing, force, and length of these occasions. Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) could be used as representation of precipitation over a large region. This could be useful for the monitoring of the precipitation pattern as well as extreme events. Nevertheless, application of these products in monitoring extreme precipitation is still limited because insufficiency of quality assessment. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7 product in capturing the behavior of extreme precipitation events over Peninsular Malaysia from 2000 to 2015. Four extreme precipitation indices, in two general categories of absolute threshold (R10mm, R20mm and R50mm) and maximum (Rx1d) indices that recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used. General evaluation has shown that the TRMM 3B42V7 product performed good on the measurements of monthly and annual precipitation. In the respect of extreme precipitation measurements, weak to moderate positive correlations were found between the TRMM 3B42 product and rain gauges over Peninsular Malaysia. The TRMM 3B42V7 product overestimated the R10mm and R20mm indices, while an underestimation was found for the R50mm and Rx1d indices.

  3. Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

  4. Evaluation of COTS SiGe, SOI, and Mixed Signal Electronic Parts for Extreme Temperature Use in NASA Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program sponsors a task at the NASA Glenn Research Center titled "Reliability of SiGe, SOI, and Advanced Mixed Signal Devices for Cryogenic Space Missions." In this task COTS parts and flight-like are evaluated by determining their performance under extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. The results from the evaluations are published on the NEPP website and at professional conferences in order to disseminate information to mission planners and system designers. This presentation discusses the task and the 2010 highlights and technical results. Topics include extreme temperature operation of SiGe and SOI devices, all-silicon oscillators, a floating gate voltage reference, a MEMS oscillator, extreme temperature resistors and capacitors, and a high temperature silicon operational amplifier.

  5. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  6. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  7. EVALUATION OF DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY (DUE MUSCULOSKELETAL DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX (SI IN AN IRONWORK INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed-Ali Moussavi-Najarkola

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims:Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDS is one of the mostimportant problems in working populations of Iranian industries; so, in order to evaluate theintegrated roles and effects of various ergonomic risk factors inducing such disorders, the StrainIndex (SI methods was used.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 448 male subjects including 63controls working in administrative jobs and 385 cases working in lathing, welding, melting andfoundry jobs using integrated procedure which includes observations, interview, NordicMusculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ methods and SI model. All workers were questioned.Data were analyzed using SPSS software v. 11 and Excel package.Results: The most prevalent MSDs in upper limbs were found in melting lathing, foundry andwelding respectively. There was a significant relationship between age and job groups (c2=7.33;df=16; p<0.001. One-way analysis of variance showed a significant differences among means ofcalculated Strain Indices of administrative (1.06, lathing (6.52, welding (3.68, melting (7.79and foundry (6.33 jobs (F=5.92; df=16; p=0.005. Also it was revealed that melting job wasattributed as "hazardous job" (4 risk level, lathing and foundry jobs were referred to "moderaterisk level" (3 risk level, welding job was allocated as "uncertain risk level" (2 risk level, andadministrative job was attributed as "safe risk level" (1 risk level. Moreover, there was asignificant relationship between DUE and job groups (c2=11.92; df=12; p=0.004.The paired ttestshowed significant difference with direct and relatively complete correlation between meansof Strain Indices in right (6.53 and left (4.29 hands (r=0.69; t=3.15; p<0.001.Conclusion: The Strain Index (SI model can be referred as an efficient and applicable methodfor the assessment of ergonomics risk factors inducing upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders(UEMSDs, classifying jobs, correcting and modifying work situations

  8. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  9. Foot deformities, function in the lower extremities, and plantar pressure in patients with diabetes at high risk to develop foot ulcers

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Ulla Hellstrand; Z?gner, Roland; Lisovskaja, Vera; Karlsson, Jon; Hagberg, Kerstin; Tranberg, Roy

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Foot deformities, neuropathy, and dysfunction in the lower extremities are known risk factors that increase plantar peak pressure (PP) and, as a result, the risk of developing foot ulcers in patients with diabetes. However, knowledge about the prevalence of these factors is still limited. The aim of the present study was to describe the prevalence of risk factors observed in patients with diabetes without foot ulcers and to explore possible connections between the risk factors and ...

  10. Evaluation of Extremal Hypotheses as a Criterion to Resolve Channel Indeterminacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranmer, A.

    2012-12-01

    Design criteria for river restoration and sustainable development have significantly advanced in recent decades, yet complete deterministic formulations to address channel form and sinuosity still prove elusive. Many hypotheses have been presented to ascertain the dynamic-equilibrium of a stream at both the cross sectional and reach level. These efforts to better understand the functioning of alluvial systems include regime theory, stability theory, perturbation analysis, threshold theory, reference reach comparison, downstream hydraulic geometry, and extremal hypotheses. The latter of these theories, the extremal hypothesis, is based on optimizing one variable or criterion in the alluvial system in order to find closure to the channel design problem. Currently, there is no method to directly compare the various hypotheses at the system scale, understanding of their sensitivity to the various formulae employed or consensus regarding which hypothesis is most appropriate. This study analyzed the various extremal hypotheses in as close to a pristine environment as exists (a remote part of Patagonia, Chile), in order to assess which hypothesis (or collective hypotheses) is most appropriate for channel design. Extremal hypotheses were applied in the longitudinal direction, under the assumption of a space-for-time substitution, to evaluate the geomorphic trends of a river evolving during deglaciation. The space-for-time model assumes the watershed reaches stable, dynamic-equilibrium in its lower meandering reaches and the point of equilibrium extends upstream through its braiding reaches as the watershed adapts to new climatic and environmental conditions. Extremal hypotheses applied in a downstream fashion are then expected to predict chaotic and oversized channel characteristics in the upstream reaches and trend towards a point of equilibrium (minimum/maximum of tested hypothesis). Initial findings indicate that many hypotheses predict similar geometry and sinuosity

  11. Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

  12. Selection in reported epidemiological risks: an empirical assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fotini K Kavvoura

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies may be subject to selective reporting, but empirical evidence thereof is limited. We empirically evaluated the extent of selection of significant results and large effect sizes in a large sample of recent articles.We evaluated 389 articles of epidemiological studies that reported, in their respective abstracts, at least one relative risk for a continuous risk factor in contrasts based on median, tertile, quartile, or quintile categorizations. We examined the proportion and correlates of reporting statistically significant and nonsignificant results in the abstract and whether the magnitude of the relative risks presented (coined to be consistently > or =1.00 differs depending on the type of contrast used for the risk factor. In 342 articles (87.9%, > or =1 statistically significant relative risk was reported in the abstract, while only 169 articles (43.4% reported > or =1 statistically nonsignificant relative risk in the abstract. Reporting of statistically significant results was more common with structured abstracts, and was less common in US-based studies and in cancer outcomes. Among 50 randomly selected articles in which the full text was examined, a median of nine (interquartile range 5-16 statistically significant and six (interquartile range 3-16 statistically nonsignificant relative risks were presented (p = 0.25. Paradoxically, the smallest presented relative risks were based on the contrasts of extreme quintiles; on average, the relative risk magnitude was 1.41-, 1.42-, and 1.36-fold larger in contrasts of extreme quartiles, extreme tertiles, and above-versus-below median values, respectively (p < 0.001.Published epidemiological investigations almost universally highlight significant associations between risk factors and outcomes. For continuous risk factors, investigators selectively present contrasts between more extreme groups, when relative risks are inherently lower.

  13. Field-expedient screening and injury risk algorithm categories as predictors of noncontact lower extremity injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehr, M E; Plisky, P J; Butler, R J; Fink, M L; Kiesel, K B; Underwood, F B

    2013-08-01

    In athletics, efficient screening tools are sought to curb the rising number of noncontact injuries and associated health care costs. The authors hypothesized that an injury prediction algorithm that incorporates movement screening performance, demographic information, and injury history can accurately categorize risk of noncontact lower extremity (LE) injury. One hundred eighty-three collegiate athletes were screened during the preseason. The test scores and demographic information were entered into an injury prediction algorithm that weighted the evidence-based risk factors. Athletes were then prospectively followed for noncontact LE injury. Subsequent analysis collapsed the groupings into two risk categories: Low (normal and slight) and High (moderate and substantial). Using these groups and noncontact LE injuries, relative risk (RR), sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Forty-two subjects sustained a noncontact LE injury over the course of the study. Athletes identified as High Risk (n = 63) were at a greater risk of noncontact LE injury (27/63) during the season [RR: 3.4 95% confidence interval 2.0 to 6.0]. These results suggest that an injury prediction algorithm composed of performance on efficient, low-cost, field-ready tests can help identify individuals at elevated risk of noncontact LE injury. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Statistical distributions of extreme dry spell in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2010-11-01

    Statistical distributions of annual extreme (AE) series and partial duration (PD) series for dry-spell event are analyzed for a database of daily rainfall records of 50 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular Malaysia, with recording period extending from 1975 to 2004. The three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are considered to model both series. In both cases, the parameters of these two distributions are fitted by means of the L-moments method, which provides a robust estimation of them. The goodness-of-fit (GOF) between empirical data and theoretical distributions are then evaluated by means of the L-moment ratio diagram and several goodness-of-fit tests for each of the 50 stations. It is found that for the majority of stations, the AE and PD series are well fitted by the GEV and GP models, respectively. Based on the models that have been identified, we can reasonably predict the risks associated with extreme dry spells for various return periods.

  15. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  16. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  17. Risk-Cost Estimation of On-Site Wastewater Treatment System Failures Using Extreme Value Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Laura E; Silverstein, JoAnn; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2017-05-01

      Owner resistance to increasing regulation of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), including obligatory inspections and upgrades, moratoriums and cease-and-desist orders in communities around the U.S. demonstrate the challenges associated with managing risks of inadequate performance of owner-operated wastewater treatment systems. As a result, determining appropriate and enforceable performance measures in an industry with little history of these requirements is challenging. To better support such measures, we develop a statistical method to predict lifetime failure risks, expressed as costs, in order to identify operational factors associated with costly repairs and replacement. A binomial logistic regression is used to fit data from public records of reported OWTS failures, in Boulder County, Colorado, which has 14 300 OWTS to determine the probability that an OWTS will be in a low- or high-risk category for lifetime repair and replacement costs. High-performing or low risk OWTS with repairs and replacements below the threshold of $9000 over a 40-year life are associated with more frequent inspections and upgrades following home additions. OWTS with a high risk of exceeding the repair cost threshold of $18 000 are further analyzed in a variation of extreme value analysis (EVA), Points Over Threshold (POT) where the distribution of risk-cost exceedance values are represented by a generalized Pareto distribution. The resulting threshold cost exceedance estimates for OWTS in the high-risk category over a 40-year expected life ranged from $18 000 to $44 000.

  18. Varicose veins in the lower extremities in relation to occupational mechanical exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeifar, Sorosh; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate if occupational mechanical exposures are associated with an increased risk of surgery for varicose veins (VV) in the lower extremities. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study of persons from the Musculoskeletal Research Database at the Danish Ramazzini Centre who were 18...... and a preventive potential of more than 60% of all cases in exposed occupations....

  19. Evaluation, management and prevention of lower extremity youth ice hockey injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popkin CA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Charles A Popkin,1 Brian M Schulz,2 Caroline N Park,1 Thomas S Bottiglieri,1 T Sean Lynch1 1Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Center for Shoulder, Elbow and Sports Medicine at Columbia University, New York, NY, 2Kerlan‑Jobe Orthopedic Clinic, Los Angeles, CA, USA Abstract: Ice hockey is a fast-paced sport played by increasing numbers of children and adolescents in North America and around the world. Requiring a unique blend of skill, finesse, power and teamwork, ice hockey can become a lifelong recreational activity. Despite the rising popularity of the sport, there is ongoing concern about the high frequency of musculoskeletal injury associated with participation in ice hockey. Injury rates in ice hockey are among the highest in all competitive sports. Numerous research studies have been implemented to better understand the risks of injury. As a result, rule changes were adopted by the USA Hockey and Hockey Canada to raise the minimum age at which body checking is permitted to 13–14 years (Bantam level from 11–12 years (Pee Wee. Continuing the education of coaches, parents and players on rules of safe play, and emphasizing the standards for proper equipment use are other strategies being implemented to make the game safer to play. The objective of this article was to review the evaluation, management and prevention of common lower extremity youth hockey injuries. Keywords: youth hockey, body checking, injury prevention, femoroacetabular impingement, apophyseal avulsions

  20. Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

    2012-04-01

    Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

  1. The Severity of Retinopathy in the Extremely Premature Infants

    OpenAIRE

    Trivli, Alexandra; Polychronaki, Maria; Matalliotaki, Charoula; Papadimas, Michail; Patelarou, Athina E.; Dermitzaki, Niki; Matalliotakis, Michail

    2017-01-01

    Objective. We aimed to investigate the incidence and the severity of retinopathy of extremely premature infants and to evaluate the risk factors and outcome of the cases. Materials and Methods. Out of 200 premature births, we retrospectively reviewed 9 cases that developed ROP. We excluded cases where ROP developed in newborns > 30 weeks of gestational age and cases where medical notes were unavailable or incomplete. Topical drops of cyclopentolate 1% and phenylephrine 5% were instilled and f...

  2. Extremely low frequency magnetic fields and health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I. Buzdugan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In a world abounding in artificially created electromagnetic fields, we consider that a new approach regarding their possible harmful effects on living beings becomes mandatory. The paper reviews briefly the results of some epidemiological studies, the ICNIRP (International Committee on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection Guidelines and the latest document of the SCENIHR (an organism of the European Commission regarding extremely low frequency (ELF magnetic fields. We are convinced that the best conduct that might be adopted on this matter is the policy of the prudential avoidance. Several examples of possible harmful effects determined by extremely low frequency magnetic fields dedicated to building services engineering in residences are presented, along with several methods of mitigating them.

  3. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  4. EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF THE PERIODONTAL DISEASE VERSUS SYSTEMIC AND LOCAL RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia MÂRŢU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The periodontal disease represents a malady characterized by an extremely high incidence. The manifestations and evolution of the periodontal diseases vary for each form in part, being influenced by systemic and local risk factors. Scope of the study: To evaluate the periodontal status on a group of patients, versus the syste‐ mic and local factors. Materials and method: The study was performed on a group of 170 patients, whose odonto‐periodontal status was evaluated by strict clinical and paraclinical examinations, on establishing the inflammation indices and the periodontal diagnosis. Results: The main cause of the analysis was gingival ble‐ eding; an increased number of smokers was registered among the patients. Out of the local factors, especially important were edentations and malocclusions. Also, a higher number of aggressive generalized periodontites has been noticed. Discussion: The forms of the periodontal diseases are obviously influenced by the systemic context, while the forms of localized chronic periodontitis associa‐ ted with generalized chronic gingivitis reflect the role pla‐ yed by the local risk factors. Conclusions: Stress and smoking represent significant risk factors in the installation of periodontal pathology, with a really alarming preva‐ lence. The aggressive forms of periodontitis showed a higher frequency than that recorded in literature.

  5. Quantifying extreme risks in stock markets: A case of former Yugoslavian states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša Žiković

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why investors were not prepared for heavy losses in the stock markets that occurred after the beginning of sub prime mortgage crisis in the US lies in the curious fact that many practitioners were led to believe that there are so many independent agents participating in the stock markets that surely they must act according to Central limit theorem i.e. according to Gaussian distribution. As it turns out the paradigm of normality has let us down once again and reputation of VaR based risk measurement is seriously damaged. An alternative measure that looks very strong at these dire times and quantifi es the losses that might be encountered in the tail is the conditional VaR (CVaR. While VaR represents a loss one expects at a determined confi dence level for a given holding period, CVaR is the loss one expects, provided that the loss is equal to or greater than VaR. In this paper the testing of CVaR models is performed on stock indexes from Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia. Error statistics show that CVaR models are quite successful at capturing extreme losses that occurred in these markets, especially models based on Generalized extreme value distribution and a proposed Hybrid historical simulation CVaR model.

  6. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  7. Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are

  8. Peripherally inserted central catheters and upper extremity deep vein thrombosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ong, B.; Gibbs, H.; Catchpole, I.; Hetherington, R.; Harper, J.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine the incidence and risk factors for venous thrombosis in patients with a peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC). A retrospective study of all upper extremity venous duplex scans was carried out in the Vascular Medicine department from year 2000 to 2002 inclusive. A chart review of positive scans was undertaken to identify possible thrombotic risk factors. Of 317 upper extremity venous duplex scans carried out, 115, or 32%, were positive for upper extremity deep vein thrombosis. Three main risk factors were identified - presence of a central line, malignancy and administration of chemotherapy. PICC were the most common central line present. Symptomatic thrombosis occurred in 7% of PICC inserted for chemotherapy compared with 1% of PICC inserted for other reasons. Ten per cent of the patients receiving chemotherapy through a PICC developed a thrombosis. The post-thrombotic syndrome was infrequent following upper extremity deep vein thrombosis. Patients receiving chemotherapy through a PICC are at increased risk of thrombosis. There may be a role for prophylactic low-dose anticoagulation in these high-risk patients

  9. Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

  10. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  11. Mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score in growth restricted extremely preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamakawa, Takuji; Itabashi, Kazuo; Kusuda, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether the mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score (BWSDS) in growth restricted extremely preterm infants. This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study using the database of the Neonatal Research Network of Japan and including 9149 infants born between 2003 and 2010 at <28 weeks gestation. According to the BWSDSs, the infants were classified as: <-2.0, -2.0 to -1.5, -1.5 to -1.0, -1.0 to -0.5, and ≥-0.5. Infants with BWSDS≥-0.5 were defined as non-growth restricted group. After adjusting for covariates, the risks of mortality and some morbidities were different among the BWSDS groups. Compared with non-growth restricted group, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for mortality [aOR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-2.12] and chronic lung disease (CLD) (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.54) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -1.5 to <-1.0. The aOR for severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71) and sepsis (aOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.32-2.24) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -2.0 to <-1.5. The aOR for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) (aOR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.64-3.55) was increased at a BWSDS<-2.0. Being growth restricted extremely preterm infants confer additional risks for mortality and morbidities such as CLD, ROP, sepsis and NEC, and these risks may vary with BWSDS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Extreme value analysis for evaluating ozone control strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Brian; Cooley, Daniel; Foley, Kristen; Napelenok, Sergey; Shaby, Benjamin

    2013-06-01

    Tropospheric ozone is one of six criteria pollutants regulated by the US EPA, and has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular endpoints and adverse effects on vegetation and ecosystems. Regional photochemical models have been developed to study the impacts of emission reductions on ozone levels. The standard approach is to run the deterministic model under new emission levels and attribute the change in ozone concentration to the emission control strategy. However, running the deterministic model requires substantial computing time, and this approach does not provide a measure of uncertainty for the change in ozone levels. Recently, a reduced form model (RFM) has been proposed to approximate the complex model as a simple function of a few relevant inputs. In this paper, we develop a new statistical approach to make full use of the RFM to study the effects of various control strategies on the probability and magnitude of extreme ozone events. We fuse the model output with monitoring data to calibrate the RFM by modeling the conditional distribution of monitoring data given the RFM using a combination of flexible semiparametric quantile regression for the center of the distribution where data are abundant and a parametric extreme value distribution for the tail where data are sparse. Selected parameters in the conditional distribution are allowed to vary by the RFM value and the spatial location. Also, due to the simplicity of the RFM, we are able to embed the RFM in our Bayesian hierarchical framework to obtain a full posterior for the model input parameters, and propagate this uncertainty to the estimation of the effects of the control strategies. We use the new framework to evaluate three potential control strategies, and find that reducing mobile-source emissions has a larger impact than reducing point-source emissions or a combination of several emission sources.

  13. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  14. Relationship of Lower Extremity Muscle Strength with Balance and Lower Extremity Functions in Elderly Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdi Başkurt

    2018-03-01

    Conclusions: Functional score, mobility and balance are related to lower extremity muscle strength in elderly women. Increasing muscle strength will reduce the risk of falls and increase independence.

  15. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  16. The effect of unilateral arm swing motion on lower extremity running mechanics associated with injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agresta, Cristine; Ward, Christian R; Wright, W Geoffrey; Tucker, Carole A

    2018-06-01

    Many field sports involve equipment that restricts one or both arms from moving while running. Arm swing during running has been examined from a biomechanical and physiologic perspective but not from an injury perspective. Moreover, only bilateral arm swing suppression has been studied with respect to running. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of running with one arm restrained on lower extremity mechanics associated with running or sport-related injury. Fifteen healthy participants ran at a self-selected speed with typical arm swing, with one arm restrained and with both arms restrained. Lower extremity kinematics and spatiotemporal measures were analysed for all arm swing conditions. Running with one arm restrained resulted in increased frontal plane knee and hip angles, decreased foot strike angle, and decreased centre of mass vertical displacement compared to typical arm swing or bilateral arm swing restriction. Stride length was decreased and step frequency increased when running with one or both arms restrained. Unilateral arm swing restriction induces changes in lower extremity kinematics that are not similar to running with bilateral arm swing restriction or typical arm swing motion. Running with one arm restrained increases frontal plane mechanics associated with risk of knee injury.

  17. Statistics of extremes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Beirlant, Jan; Segers, Johan; Teugels, Jozef; De Waal, Daniel; Ferro, Chris

    2006-01-01

    Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including  time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.  

  18. Morbidity in extreme low birth weight newborns hospitalized in a high risk public maternity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derijulie Siqueira Sousa

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives: to determine the prevalence of the most common morbidities in extremely low birth weight (ELBW infants hospitalized in a newborn intensive care unit (NICU and to evaluate the influence of these morbidities through the length of in-hospital stay. Methods: observational, longitudinal, prospective and analytical study in a high risk reference maternity NICU from Sergipe, realized with 158 ELBW infants admitted between March 2014 and April 2015. The analysis of the hospitalization time was realized through the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: the average weight of premature was 785,2g ± 138,2g. The gestational age vary from 22 to 35 weeks and the average was 26,8 weeks. Of those admitted at NICU, sixty three (39,9% were discharged and 95 (60,1% died. The time of hospitalization was influenced for morbidities as: patent ductus arteriosus (PDA, intraventricular hemorrhage and sepsis. Acute respiratory distress syndrome was the most common complication (157 - 99,4%. The incidence of persistent arterial duct, intraventricular hemorrhage, sepsis, hypothermia, hypoglycemia and retinopathy of prematurity was 39,2%, 17,1%, 32,3%,50,3%, 52,3% e 16,6% respectively. Conclusions: the morbidities from respiratory tract, cardiac, neurological and infectious were the most prevalent, whilst PDA, intraventricular hemorrhage and sepsis were the morbidities that significantly influenced the time of hospitalization.

  19. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  20. An "Ensemble Approach" to Modernizing Extreme Precipitation Estimation for Dam Safety Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Mahoney, K. M.; Webb, R. S.; McCormick, B.

    2017-12-01

    To ensure structural and operational safety of dams and other water management infrastructure, water resources managers and engineers require information about the potential for heavy precipitation. The methods and data used to estimate extreme rainfall amounts for managing risk are based on 40-year-old science and in need of improvement. The need to evaluate new approaches based on the best science available has led the states of Colorado and New Mexico to engage a body of scientists and engineers in an innovative "ensemble approach" to updating extreme precipitation estimates. NOAA is at the forefront of one of three technical approaches that make up the "ensemble study"; the three approaches are conducted concurrently and in collaboration with each other. One approach is the conventional deterministic, "storm-based" method, another is a risk-based regional precipitation frequency estimation tool, and the third is an experimental approach utilizing NOAA's state-of-the-art High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) physically-based dynamical weather prediction model. The goal of the overall project is to use the individual strengths of these different methods to define an updated and broadly acceptable state of the practice for evaluation and design of dam spillways. This talk will highlight the NOAA research and NOAA's role in the overarching goal to better understand and characterizing extreme precipitation estimation uncertainty. The research led by NOAA explores a novel high-resolution dataset and post-processing techniques using a super-ensemble of hourly forecasts from the HRRR model. We also investigate how this rich dataset may be combined with statistical methods to optimally cast the data in probabilistic frameworks. NOAA expertise in the physical processes that drive extreme precipitation is also employed to develop careful testing and improved understanding of the limitations of older estimation methods and assumptions. The process of decision making in the

  1. Preliminary Evaluation of a Social Skills Training and Facilitated Play Early Intervention Programme for Extremely Shy Young Children in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Coplan, Robert J.; Wang, Yuemin; Yin, Jingtong; Zhu, Jingjing; Gao, Zhuqing; Li, Linhui

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study was to provide a preliminary evaluation of a social skills and facilitated play early intervention programme to promote social interaction, prosocial behaviours and socio-communicative skills among young extremely shy children in China. Participants were a sample of n = 16 extremely shy young children attending kindergarten…

  2. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  3. Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2012-11-01

    Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  5. Longitudinal Regional Brain Development and Clinical Risk Factors in Extremely Preterm Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersbergen, Karina J; Makropoulos, Antonios; Aljabar, Paul; Groenendaal, Floris; de Vries, Linda S; Counsell, Serena J; Benders, Manon J N L

    2016-11-01

    To investigate third-trimester extrauterine brain growth and correlate this with clinical risk factors in the neonatal period, using serially acquired brain tissue volumes in a large, unselected cohort of extremely preterm born infants. Preterm infants (gestational age regions covering the entire brain. Multivariable regression analysis was used to determine the influence of clinical variables on volumes at both scans, as well as on volumetric growth. MRIs at term equivalent age were available for 210 infants and serial data were available for 131 infants. Growth over these 10 weeks was greatest for the cerebellum, with an increase of 258%. Sex, birth weight z-score, and prolonged mechanical ventilation showed global effects on brain volumes on both scans. The effect of brain injury on ventricular size was already visible at 30 weeks, whereas growth data and volumes at term-equivalent age revealed the effect of brain injury on the cerebellum. This study provides data about third-trimester extrauterine volumetric brain growth in preterm infants. Both global and local effects of several common clinical risk factors were found to influence serial volumetric measurements, highlighting the vulnerability of the human brain, especially in the presence of brain injury, during this period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Singapore Cancer Network (SCAN) Guidelines for the Initial Evaluation, Diagnosis, and Management of Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma and Osteosarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The SCAN sarcoma workgroup aimed to develop Singapore Cancer Network (SCAN) clinical practice guidelines for the initial evaluation, diagnosis, and management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma and osteosarcoma. The workgroup utilised a consensus approach to create high quality evidence-based clinical practice guidelines suited for our local setting. Various international guidelines from the fields of radiology, pathology, orthopaedic surgery, medical, radiation and paediatric oncology were reviewed, including those developed by von Mehren Metal (J Natl Compr Canc Netw 2014), the National Collaborating Centre for Cancer (2006), the European Sarcoma Network Working Group (2012) and Grimer RJ et al (Sarcoma 2008). Our clinical practice guidelines contextualised to the local patient will streamline care and improve clinical outcomes for patients with extremity soft tissue and osteosarcoma. These guidelines form the SCAN Guidelines 2015 for the initial evaluation, diagnosis, and management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma and osteosarcoma.

  7. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  8. Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

  9. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  10. Systemic Inflammation during the First Postnatal Month and the Risk of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Characteristics among 10 year-old Children Born Extremely Preterm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allred, Elizabeth N; Dammann, Olaf; Fichorova, Raina N; Hooper, Stephen R; Hunter, Scott J; Joseph, Robert M; Kuban, Karl; Leviton, Alan; O'Shea, Thomas Michael; Scott, Megan N

    2017-09-01

    Although multiple sources link inflammation with attention difficulties, the only human study that evaluated the relationship between systemic inflammation and attention problems assessed attention at age 2 years. Parent and/or teacher completion of the Childhood Symptom Inventory-4 (CSI-4) provided information about characteristics that screen for attention deficit hyperactive disorder (ADHD) among 793 10-year-old children born before the 28th week of gestation who had an IQ ≥ 70. The concentrations of 27 proteins in blood spots obtained during the first postnatal month were measured. 151 children with ADHD behaviors were identified by parent report, while 128 children were identified by teacher report. Top-quartile concentrations of IL-6R, TNF-α, IL-8, VEGF, VEFG-R1, and VEGF-R2 on multiple days were associated with increased risk of ADHD symptoms as assessed by a teacher. Some of this increased risk was modulated by top-quartile concentrations of IL-6R, RANTES, EPO, NT-4, BDNF, bFGF, IGF-1, PIGF, Ang-1, and Ang-2. Systemic inflammation during the first postnatal month among children born extremely preterm appears to increase the risk of teacher-identified ADHD characteristics, and high concentrations of proteins with neurotrophic properties appear capable of modulating this increased risk.

  11. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  12. The legacy of extreme sea levels for the assessment of future coastal flood risk – A review of methods applied in Denmark, Germany and Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsen, Jan Even; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Dangendore, Sönke

    in the three countries is discussed. Here, national approaches to deal with risk, risk acceptance and uncertainty vary, among other factors, as a result of the different assessments of extreme events. In hazard and vulnerability assessments, for instance, where results are highly dependent on the quality...

  13. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  14. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  15. Relationships among spinal mobility and sagittal alignment of spine and lower extremity to quality of life and risk of falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Yoshinori; Miyakoshi, Naohisa; Hongo, Michio; Kasukawa, Yuji; Kudo, Daisuke; Shimada, Yoichi

    2017-03-01

    Spinal deformities can affect quality of life (QOL) and risk of falling, but no studies have explored the relationships of spinal mobility and sagittal alignment of spine and the lower extremities simultaneously. Purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship of those postural parameters to QOL and risk of falling. The study evaluated 110 subjects (41 men, 69 women; mean age, 73 years). Upright and flexion and extension angles for thoracic kyphosis, lumbar lordosis, and spinal inclination were evaluated with SpinalMouse ® . Total-body inclination and hip and knee flexion angles in upright position were measured from lateral photographs. Subjects were divided into Fallers (n=23, 21%) and Non-fallers (n=87, 79%) based on past history of falls. QOL was assessed using the Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36 ® ). Age, total-body inclination, spinal inclination upright and in extension, thoracic kyphosis in flexion, lumbar lordosis upright and in extension, and knee flexion correlated significantly with the SF-36. Multiple regression analysis revealed total-body inclination and knee flexion to have the most significant relationships with the SF-36. SF-36, total-body inclination, spinal inclination in extension, thoracic kyphosis in flexion, lumbar lordosis upright and in extension, and hip and knee flexion angles differed significantly between Fallers and Non-fallers (Pfalling (P=0.038). Forward-stooped posture and knee-flexion deformity could be important indicator of lower QOL. Moreover, limited extension in the lumbar spine could be a useful screening examination for fall prevention in the elderly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  17. Type 2 diabetes risk alleles demonstrate extreme directional differentiation among human populations, compared to other diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Chen

    Full Text Available Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may

  18. Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, In-Won; Oh, Jaiho; Woo, Sumin; Kripalani, R. H.

    2018-04-01

    In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

  19. Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

    2014-01-01

    Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

  20. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  1. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  2. Early neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Elizabeth E; Hintz, Susan R

    2016-12-01

    Infants born at extreme preterm gestation are at risk for both death and disability. Although rates of survival have improved for this population, and some evidence suggests a trend toward decreased neuromotor impairment over the past decades, a significant improvement in overall early neurodevelopmental outcome has not yet been realized. This review will examine the rates and types of neurodevelopmental impairment seen after extremely preterm birth, including neurosensory, motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes. We focus on early outcomes in the first 18-36 months of life, as the majority of large neonatal studies examining neurodevelopmental outcomes stop at this age. However, this early age is clearly just a first glimpse into lifetime outcomes; the neurodevelopmental effects of extreme prematurity may last through school age, adolescence, and beyond. Importantly, prematurity appears to be an independent risk factor for adverse development, but this population demonstrates considerable variability in the types and severity of impairments. Understanding both the nature and prevalence of neurodevelopmental impairment among extremely preterm infants is important because it can lead to targeted interventions that in turn may lead to improved outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Extremes in nature

    CERN Document Server

    Salvadori, Gianfausto; Kottegoda, Nathabandu T

    2007-01-01

    This book is about the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistics of Extreme Events in Nature. Most importantly, this is the first text in which Copulas are introduced and used in Geophysics. Several topics are fully original, and show how standard models and calculations can be improved by exploiting the opportunities offered by Copulas. In addition, new quantities useful for design and risk assessment are introduced.

  4. Long-duration space exploration and emotional health: Recommendations for conceptualizing and evaluating risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfano, Candice A.; Bower, Joanne L.; Cowie, Jennifer; Lau, Simon; Simpson, Richard J.

    2018-01-01

    Spaceflight to Mars will by far exceed the duration of any previous mission. Although behavioral health risks are routinely highlighted among the most serious threats to crew safety, understanding of specific emotional responses most likely to occur and interfere with mission success has lagged in comparison to other risk domains. Even within the domain of behavioral health, emotional constructs remain to be 'unpacked' to the same extent as other factors such as attention and fatigue. The current paper provides a review of previous studies that have examined emotional responses in isolated, confined, extreme environments (ICE) toward informing a needed research agenda. We include research conducted during space flight, long-duration space simulation analogs, and polar environments and utilize a well-established model of emotion and emotion regulation to conceptualize specific findings. Lastly, we propose four specific directions for future research: (1) use of a guiding theoretical framework for evaluating emotion responses in ICE environments; (2) leveraging multi-method approaches to improve the reliability of subjective reports of emotional health; (3) a priori selection of precise emotional constructs to guide measure selection; and (4) focusing on positive in addition to negative emotion in order to provide a more complete understanding of individual risk and resilience.

  5. Analysis of extreme drinking in patients with alcohol dependence using Pareto regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sourish; Harel, Ofer; Dey, Dipak K; Covault, Jonathan; Kranzler, Henry R

    2010-05-20

    We developed a novel Pareto regression model with an unknown shape parameter to analyze extreme drinking in patients with Alcohol Dependence (AD). We used the generalized linear model (GLM) framework and the log-link to include the covariate information through the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution. We proposed a Bayesian method based on Ridge prior and Zellner's g-prior for the regression coefficients. Simulation study indicated that the proposed Bayesian method performs better than the existing likelihood-based inference for the Pareto regression.We examined two issues of importance in the study of AD. First, we tested whether a single nucleotide polymorphism within GABRA2 gene, which encodes a subunit of the GABA(A) receptor, and that has been associated with AD, influences 'extreme' alcohol intake and second, the efficacy of three psychotherapies for alcoholism in treating extreme drinking behavior. We found an association between extreme drinking behavior and GABRA2. We also found that, at baseline, men with a high-risk GABRA2 allele had a significantly higher probability of extreme drinking than men with no high-risk allele. However, men with a high-risk allele responded to the therapy better than those with two copies of the low-risk allele. Women with high-risk alleles also responded to the therapy better than those with two copies of the low-risk allele, while women who received the cognitive behavioral therapy had better outcomes than those receiving either of the other two therapies. Among men, motivational enhancement therapy was the best for the treatment of the extreme drinking behavior. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

  7. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  8. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  9. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  10. Is thrombophilia a major risk factor for deep vein thrombosis of the lower extremities among Lebanese patients?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Kreidy

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available R Kreidy1, N Irani-Hakime21Department of Vascular Surgery, 2Department of Laboratory Medicine, Saint George Hospital, University Medical Center, University of Balamand, Beirut, LebanonAim: Factor V Leiden (R506Q mutation is the most commonly observed inherited genetic abnormality related to vein thrombosis. Lebanon has one of the highest frequencies of this mutation in the world with a prevalence of 14.4% in the general population. The aim of this study is to define risk factors including inherited genetic abnormalities among Lebanese patients with lower extremity deep vein thrombosis. We report the clinical outcome of patients with thrombophilia.Methods: From January 1998 to January 2008, 162 patients (61 males and 101 females were diagnosed with lower extremity deep vein thrombosis. Mean age was 61 years (range: 21 to 95 years.Results: The most frequent risk factors for vein thrombosis were surgery, advanced age, obesity, and cancer. Twenty-five patients had thrombophilia, 16 patients had factor V Leiden (R506Q mutation, and seven patients had MTHFR C677T mutation. Ninety-two percent of patients screened for thrombophilia were positive. Screening was requested in young patients (16, patients with recurrent (11, spontaneous (8, and extensive (5 venous thrombosis, familial history (5, pregnancy (4, estroprogestative treatment (3, and air travel (1. Nine patients had one, 11 patients had two, and five had three of these conditions. Follow-up (6 to 120 months of these 25 patients treated with antivitamin K did not reveal recurrences or complications related to venous thromboembolism.Conclusion: Factor V Leiden mutation followed by MTHFR mutation are the most commonly observed genetic abnormalities in these series. Defining risk factors and screening for thrombophilia when indicated reduce recurrence rate and complications. Recommendations for thrombophilia screening will be proposed.Keywords: venous thrombosis, risk factors, genetics, factor V

  11. [Ultrasound examination for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyota, Kosaku

    2014-09-01

    Surgery is known to be a major risk factor of vein thrombosis. Progression from lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) to pulmonary embolism can lead to catastrophic outcome, although the incidence ratio is low. The ability to rule in or rule out DVT is becoming essential for anesthesiologists. Non-invasive technique of ultrasonography is a sensitive and specific tool for the assessment of lower extremity DVT. This article introduces the basics and practical methods of ultrasound examination for lower extremity DVT.

  12. Active muscle response contributes to increased injury risk of lower extremity in occupant-knee airbag interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Bingbing; Sathyanarayan, Deepak; Ye, Xin; Crandall, Jeff R; Panzer, Matthew B

    2018-02-28

    Recent field data analysis has demonstrated that knee airbags (KABs) can reduce occupant femur and pelvis injuries but may be insufficient to decrease leg injuries in motor vehicle crashes. An enhanced understanding of the associated injury mechanisms requires accurate assessment of physiological-based occupant parameters, some of which are difficult or impossible to obtain from experiments. This study sought to explore how active muscle response can influence the injury risk of lower extremities during KAB deployment using computational biomechanical analysis. A full-factorial matrix, consisting of 48 finite element simulations of a 50th percentile occupant human model in a simplified vehicle interior, was designed. The matrix included 32 new cases in combination with 16 previously reported cases. The following influencing factors were taken into account: muscle activation, KAB use, KAB design, pre-impact seating position, and crash mode. Responses of 32 lower extremity muscles during emergency braking were replicated using one-dimensional elements of a Hill-type constitutive model, with the activation level determined from inverse dynamics and validated by existing volunteer tests. Dynamics of unfolding and inflating of the KABs were represented using the state-of-the-art corpuscular particle method. Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ injury risks of the knee-thigh-hip (KTH) complex and the tibia were assessed using axial force and resultant bending moments. With all simulation cases being taken together, a general linear model was used to assess factor significance (P systems. Future efforts are recommended on realistic vehicle and restraint environment and advanced modeling strategies toward a full understanding of KAB efficacy.

  13. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  14. Upper extremity golf injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Michael A; Lee, Steven K; Strauss, Eric J

    2013-01-01

    Golf is a global sport enjoyed by an estimated 60 million people around the world. Despite the common misconception that the risk of injury during the play of golf is minimal, golfers are subject to a myriad of potential pathologies. While the majority of injuries in golf are attributable to overuse, acute traumatic injuries can also occur. As the body's direct link to the golf club, the upper extremities are especially prone to injury. A thorough appreciation of the risk factors and patterns of injury will afford accurate diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of further injury.

  15. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

  16. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  17. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  18. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  19. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  20. Scintigraphic method for evaluating reductions in local blood volumes in human extremities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blønd, L; Madsen, Jan Lysgård

    2000-01-01

    in the experiment. Evaluation of one versus two scintigraphic projections, trials for assessment of the reproducibility, a comparison of the scintigraphic method with a water-plethysmographic method and registration of the fractional reduction in blood volume caused by exsanguination as a result of simple elevation......% in the lower limb experiment and 6% in the upper limb experiment. We found a significant relation (r = 0.42, p = 0.018) between the results obtained by the scintigraphic method and the plethysmographic method. In fractions, a mean reduction in blood volume of 0.49+0.14 (2 SD) was found after 1 min of elevation......We introduce a new method for evaluating reductions in local blood volumes in extremities, based on the combined use of autologue injection of 99mTc-radiolabelled erythrocytes and clamping of the limb blood flow by the use of a tourniquet. Twenty-two healthy male volunteers participated...

  1. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  2. Improved Extreme Learning Machine and Its Application in Image Quality Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Mao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme learning machine (ELM is a new class of single-hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN, which is simple in theory and fast in implementation. Zong et al. propose a weighted extreme learning machine for learning data with imbalanced class distribution, which maintains the advantages from original ELM. However, the current reported ELM and its improved version are only based on the empirical risk minimization principle, which may suffer from overfitting. To solve the overfitting troubles, in this paper, we incorporate the structural risk minimization principle into the (weighted ELM, and propose a modified (weighted extreme learning machine (M-ELM and M-WELM. Experimental results show that our proposed M-WELM outperforms the current reported extreme learning machine algorithm in image quality assessment.

  3. The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia

    2017-01-01

    It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1-2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6-7 days and lasting up to 20-28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

  4. Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Ana

    2015-04-01

    Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme

  5. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    with better decision support tools. Some of the developments are risk frameworks that encompass economic and/or ethic evaluation of climate change adaptation options and improved risk management. This line of development is based on a societal-based evaluation of maximizing the outcome for society...... in extreme precipitation has been observed, corresponding to an increase of design levels of at least 30 %. Analysis of climate change model output has given clear evidence, that further increases in extreme precipitation must be expected in the future due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses...... and planned urban drainage solutions are shared between very different stakeholders and that current practices are leading to personal bankruptcy by those bearing the highest costs. Therefore solutions must be developed that are understandable and can be communicated between different stakeholders...

  6. Haplotype Analysis Discriminates Genetic Risk for DR3-Associated Endocrine Autoimmunity and Helps Define Extreme Risk for Addison’s Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Peter R.; Baschal, Erin E.; Fain, Pam R.; Triolo, Taylor M.; Nanduri, Priyaanka; Siebert, Janet C.; Armstrong, Taylor K.; Babu, Sunanda R.; Rewers, Marian J.; Gottlieb, Peter A.; Barker, Jennifer M.; Eisenbarth, George S.

    2010-01-01

    Context: Multiple autoimmune disorders (e.g. Addison’s disease, type 1 diabetes, celiac disease) are associated with HLA-DR3, but it is likely that alleles of additional genes in linkage disequilibrium with HLA-DRB1 contribute to disease. Objective: The objective of the study was to characterize major histocompatability complex (MHC) haplotypes conferring extreme risk for autoimmune Addison’s disease (AD). Design, Setting, and Participants: Eighty-six 21-hydroxylase autoantibody-positive, nonautoimmune polyendocrine syndrome type 1, Caucasian individuals collected from 1992 to 2009 with clinical AD from 68 families (12 multiplex and 56 simplex) were genotyped for HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1, MICA, HLA-B, and HLA-A as well as high density MHC single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis for 34. Main Outcome Measures: AD and genotype were measured. Result: Ninety-seven percent of the multiplex individuals had both HLA-DR3 and HLA-B8 vs. 60% of simplex AD patients (P = 9.72 × 10−4) and 13% of general population controls (P = 3.00 × 10−19). The genotype DR3/DR4 with B8 was present in 85% of AD multiplex patients, 24% of simplex patients, and 1.5% of control individuals (P = 4.92 × 10−191). The DR3-B8 haplotype of AD patients had HLA-A1 less often (47%) than controls (81%, P = 7.00 × 10−5) and type 1 diabetes patients (73%, P = 1.93 × 10−3). Analysis of 1228 SNPs across the MHC for individuals with AD revealed a shorter conserved haplotype (3.8) with the loss of the extended conserved 3.8.1 haplotype approximately halfway between HLA-B and HLA-A. Conclusion: Extreme risk for AD, especially in multiplex families, is associated with haplotypic DR3 variants, in particular a portion (3.8) but not all of the conserved 3.8.1 haplotype. PMID:20631027

  7. Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

    2017-12-01

    Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

  8. A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

    2017-08-01

    Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

  9. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  10. Association Between Concussion and Lower Extremity Injuries in Collegiate Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Frances C; Burdette, G Trey; Joyner, A Barry; Llewellyn, Tracy A; Buckley, Thomas A

    Concussions have been associated with elevated musculoskeletal injury risk; however, the influence of unreported and unrecognized concussions has not been investigated. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between concussion and lower extremity musculoskeletal injury rates across a diverse array of sports among collegiate student-athletes at the conclusion of their athletic career. The hypothesis was that there will be a positive association between athletes who reported a history of concussions and higher rates of lower extremity injuries. Cross-sectional study. Level 3. Student-athletes (N = 335; 62.1% women; mean age, 21.2 ± 1.4 years) from 13 sports completed a reliable injury history questionnaire. Respondents indicated the total number of reported, unreported, and potentially unrecognized concussions as well as lower extremity injuries including ankle sprains, knee injuries, and muscle strains. Chi-square analyses were performed to identify the association between concussion and lower extremity injuries. There were significant associations between concussion and lateral ankle sprain ( P = 0.012), knee injury ( P = 0.002), and lower extremity muscle strain ( P = 0.031). There were also significant associations between reported concussions and knee injury ( P = 0.003), unreported concussions and knee injury ( P = 0.002), and unrecognized concussions and lateral ankle sprain ( P = 0.001) and lower extremity muscle strains ( P = 0.006), with odds ratios ranging from 1.6 to 2.9. There was a positive association between concussion history and lower extremity injuries (odds ratios, 1.6-2.9 elevated risk) among student-athletes at the conclusion of their intercollegiate athletic careers. Clinicians should be aware of these elevated risks when making return-to-participation decisions and should incorporate injury prevention protocols.

  11. Induction of chromosomal aberrations in human primary fibroblasts and immortalized cancer cells exposed to extremely-low-frequency electromagnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seyyedi, S. S.; Mozdarani, H.; Rezaei Tavirani, M.; Heydari, S.

    2010-01-01

    Rapidly increasing possibilities of exposure to environmental extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields have become a topic of worldwide investigation. Epidemiological and laboratory studies suggest that exposure to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields may increase cancer risk therefore assessment of chromosomal damage in various cell lines might be of predictive value for future risk estimation. Materials and Methods: Primary cultures of fibroblasts from human skin biopsy were exposed to continuous extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields (3, 50 and 60 Hz, sinusoidal, 3h, and 4 m T). Also immortalized cell lines, SW480, MCF-7 and 1321N1 were exposed to continuous extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields (50 Hz, sinusoidal, 3 h, 4 m T). Metaphase plates Were prepared according to standard methods and stained in 5% Giemsa solution. Chromosomal aberrations of both chromosome and chromatid types were scored to evaluate the effects of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields on primary or established cell lines. Results: Results indicate that by increasing the frequency of extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields, chromosomal aberrations were increased up to 7-fold above background levels in primary human fibroblast cells. In addition, continuous exposure to a 50 Hz electromagnetic field led to a significant increase in chromosomal aberrations in SW480, MCF-7 and 1321N1 cell lines compared to sham control. Conclusion: Results obtained indicate that extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields has the potential for induction of chromosomal aberrations in all cell types.

  12. Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Hai-Kun; Li, Yan-Feng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Jin, Tongdan

    2017-01-01

    When a group of identical products is operating in field, the aggregation of failures is a catastrophe to engineers and customers who strive to develop reliable and safe products. In order to avoid a swarm of failures in a short time, it is essential to measure the degree of dispersion from different failure times in a group of products to the first failure time. This phenomenon is relevant to the crowding of system conditions near the worst one among a group of products. The group size in this paper represents a finite number of products, instead of infinite number or a single product. We evaluate the reliability of the product fleet from two aspects. First, we define near-extreme system condition and near-extreme failure time for offline solutions, which means no online observations. Second, we apply them to a continuous degradation system that breaks down when it reaches a soft failure threshold. By using particle filtering in the framework of prognostics and health management for a group of products, we aim to estimate near-extreme system condition and further predict the remaining useful life (RUL) using online solutions. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Highlights: • The aggregation of failures is measured for a group of identical products. • The crowding of failures is quantitated by the near-extreme evaluations. • Near-extreme system condition are given for offline solutions. • Near-extreme remaining useful time are provided for online solutions.

  13. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  14. Cognitive Outcomes of Children Born Extremely or Very Preterm Since the 1990s and Associated Risk Factors : A Meta-analysis and Meta-regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Twilhaar, E Sabrina; Wade, Rebecca M; de Kieviet, Jorrit F; van Goudoever, Johannes B; van Elburg, Ruurd M; Oosterlaan, Jaap

    2018-01-01

    Importance: Despite apparent progress in perinatal care, children born extremely or very preterm (EP/VP) remain at high risk for cognitive deficits. Insight into factors contributing to cognitive outcome is key to improve outcomes after EP/VP birth. Objective: To examine the cognitive abilities of

  15. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  16. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  17. The Jules Horowitz reactor: complementary safety evaluation in the light of the Fukushima 1 nuclear power station accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    This report proposes a complementary safety evaluation of the Jules Horowitz reactor in Cadarache (INB 172), one of the French basic nuclear installations (BNI, in French INB) in the light of the Fukushima accident. This evaluation takes the following risks into account: risks of flooding, earthquake, loss of power supply and loss of cooling, in addition to operational management of accident situations. It presents the main characteristics of the installation, identifies the risks of a cliff effect and the main structures and equipment, evaluates the seismic risk (installation sizing, installation conformity, margin evaluation), evaluates the flooding risk (installation sizing, installation conformity, margin evaluation), briefly examines other extreme natural phenomena (extreme meteorological conditions related to flooding, earthquake or flooding with a higher level than that for which the installation is designed). It analyzes the risk of a loss of power supply and of cooling (loss of external and internal electric sources, loss of the ultimate cooling system). It analyzes the management of severe accidents: crisis management organization, available intervention means, robustness of available means. It discusses the conditions of the use of subcontractors

  18. Assessment of the risk of falling with the use of timed up and go test in the elderly with lower extremity osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zasadzka E

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Ewa Zasadzka,1 Adrianna Maria Borowicz,1 Magdalena Roszak,2 Mariola Pawlaczyk1 1Department of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, Karol Marcinkowski University of Medical Sciences, 2Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznan, Poland Background: Falling in the elderly results in a significant number of admissions to hospitals and long-term care facilities, especially among patients with lower extremity osteoarthritis (OA.Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the risk of falling in adults older than 60 years with OA using timed up and go (TUG test.Materials and methods: A total of 187 patients (aged >60 years were enrolled in the study. The assessment included: basic activities of daily living (ADLs, lower extremity strength with the use of the 30-second chair stand test (30 CST, and assessment of the risk of falling (TUG test. Pain intensity was evaluated with the numeric rating scale (NRS.Results: The TUG test results were significantly better in younger OA patients (aged 60–69 years, as compared with their older peers (aged 70–79 years; P<0.01 and the oldest group (aged >80 years; P<0.001. Also, the 30 CST results were significantly higher in younger OA patients (P<0.05. Subjects older than 80 years had a significantly worse ADL score (P<0.05 and P<0.001. Pain complaints were reported significantly more frequently by women than men (P<0.05. A correlation between age and the TUG test score (r=0.412; P<0.0004 as well as between the TUG test and the 30 CST scores (r=0.7368; P=0.000 was detected. In the group with the TUG test score of <13.5 seconds, the 30 CST (P<0.0001 and ADL (P<0.003 results were significantly better. A comparison of fallers vs nonfallers revealed that the number of falls was significantly higher in the group of subjects who scored $13.5 when compared to <13.5 (P=0.003. Fallers significantly more often reported pain (P<0.0001, whereas nonfallers had

  19. Routine evaluation ot arteriopathies of the lower extremities by digital subtraction angiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stacul, F; Pozzi-Mucelli, R; Predonzan, F; Magnaldi, S; Abbona, M; Pozzi-Mucelli, R S; Dalla Palma, L

    1985-11-01

    Intravenous digital subtraction angiography (DSA) was performed in 119 patients with lower extremity ischemia using a 14'' amplifier. Four injections of contrast medium were usually necessary for a complete evaluation of this vascular region. Images of good quality were obtained in most cases; movement artifacts and a faint opacification accounted for any poor results, which occured mainly under the knee. The technique of pixel shifting turned out to be very useful to remove movement artifacts. The 'measuring field' allowed us to minimize the problem of the inhomogeneous saturation of the amplifier. In 8% of the cases an intra-arterial DSA has been performed after an unsatisfactory intravenous examination. Conventional angiography appears to be no longer necessary.

  20. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ Agencies. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR...COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2-20 contingent probabilities given their dependence on non-probabilistic emissions futures, have extended the ranges of...flood risk provides confidence in the associated projection as a true minimum value for risk management purposes. The contemporary rate observed by

  1. Relative incidence of phlebitis associated with peripheral intravenous catheters in the lower versus upper extremities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benaya, A; Schwartz, Y; Kory, R; Yinnon, A M; Ben-Chetrit, E

    2015-05-01

    Peripheral venous access in elderly, hospitalized patients is often challenging. The usual alternative is insertion of a central venous catheter, with associated risk for complications. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the relative incidence of phlebitis secondary to lower as compared to upper extremity intravenous catheters (IVCs) and associated risk factors. A non-randomized, observational, cohort-controlled study was carried out. Consecutive patients receiving a lower extremity IVC were enrolled and compared with patients receiving an upper extremity IVC. Patients were followed from insertion until removal of the IVC. The major endpoint was phlebitis. The incidence of phlebitis secondary to upper extremity IVCs was 3/50 (6 %) compared to 5/53 (9.4 %) in lower extremity IVCs (χ(2) Yates = 0.08, p = 0.776). Age, gender, obesity, diabetes mellitus, site (arm versus leg, left versus right), and size of needle were not found to be risk factors for phlebitis according to univariate analysis. None of the patients developed bloodstream infection. In elderly patients with poor venous access, lower extremity IVCs are a reasonable and low-risk alternative to central venous catheters.

  2. Evaluating extreme flood characteristics of small mountainous basins of the Black Sea coastal area, Northern Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Lebedeva

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The probability of heavy rains and river floods is expected to increase with time in the Northern Caucasus region. Densely populated areas in the valleys of small mountainous watersheds already frequently suffer from catastrophic peak floods caused by intense rains at higher elevations. This study aimed at assessing the flood characteristics of several small basins in the piedmont area of the Caucasus Mountains adjacent to the Black Sea coast including ungauged Cemes River in the Novorossiysk city. The Deterministic-Stochastic Modelling System which consists of hydrological model Hydrograph and stochastic weather generator was applied to evaluate extreme rainfall and runoff characteristics of 1% exceedance probability. Rainfall intensity is shown to play more significant role than its depth in formation of extreme flows within the studied region.

  3. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  4. A Top Pilot Tunnel Preconditioning Method for the Prevention of Extremely Intense Rockbursts in Deep Tunnels Excavated by TBMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chuanqing; Feng, Xiating; Zhou, Hui; Qiu, Shili; Wu, Wenping

    2012-05-01

    The headrace tunnels at the Jinping II Hydropower Station cross the Jinping Mountain with a maximum overburden depth of 2,525 m, where 80% of the strata along the tunnels consist of marble. A number of extremely intense rockbursts occurred during the excavation of the auxiliary tunnels and the drainage tunnel. In particular, a tunnel boring machine (TBM) was destroyed by an extremely intense rockburst in a 7.2-m-diameter drainage tunnel. Two of the four subsequent 12.4-m-diameter headrace tunnels will be excavated with larger size TBMs, where a high risk of extremely intense rockbursts exists. Herein, a top pilot tunnel preconditioning method is proposed to minimize this risk, in which a drilling and blasting method is first recommended for the top pilot tunnel excavation and support, and then the TBM excavation of the main tunnel is conducted. In order to evaluate the mechanical effectiveness of this method, numerical simulation analyses using the failure approaching index, energy release rate, and excess shear stress indices are carried out. Its construction feasibility is discussed as well. Moreover, a microseismic monitoring technique is used in the experimental tunnel section for the real-time monitoring of the microseismic activities of the rock mass in TBM excavation and for assessing the effect of the top pilot tunnel excavation in reducing the risk of rockbursts. This method is applied to two tunnel sections prone to extremely intense rockbursts and leads to a reduction in the risk of rockbursts in TBM excavation.

  5. Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account

  6. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  7. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  8. Social media as a marketing tool for extreme-sport oriented companies

    OpenAIRE

    Korosuo, Saku

    2013-01-01

    Marketing in social media has been studied extensively in recent years, but not specifically for extreme-sport oriented companies. Even though most of the extreme-oriented companies are using social media for marketing, only a few pay special attention to its risks and possibilities. The purpose of this study is to identify extreme-sport oriented companies' practices to use social media as a marketing tool. I interviewed eight extreme- oriented companies and athletes. In addition to interview...

  9. Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Vettori, Sabrina

    2017-01-01

    The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing

  10. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-05-01

    and present-day climate extremes are affected to a lesser extent by the applied constraint, i.e. projected changes are reduced locally by around 0.5 to 1 °C - but this remains a local effect in regions that are highly sensitive to land-atmosphere coupling. In summary, our approach offers a physically consistent, diagnostic-based avenue to evaluate multi-model ensembles and subsequently reduce model biases in simulated and projected extreme temperatures.

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  12. Risk and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radeleff, B.; Rimbach, S.; Kauffmann, G.W.; Richter, G.M.

    2003-01-01

    Our goal was to evaluate risks and complication rate of uterine fibroid embolization (UFE). The most frequent complications reported in the literature are associated with angiography procedure, serious complications are extremely infrequent. The embolization of fibroids is a safe angiographic intervention. Nevertheless, the interventional radiologist must be aware of the common risks and complication and the strategies to avoid them. (orig.) [de

  13. Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; hide

    2016-01-01

    Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

  14. Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge A Chan-Lau

    2010-01-01

    The 2008/9 financial crisis highlighted the importance of evaluating vulnerabilities owing to interconnectedness, or Too-Connected-to-Fail risk, among financial institutions for country monitoring, financial surveillance, investment analysis and risk management purposes. This paper illustrates the use of balance sheet-based network analysis to evaluate interconnectedness risk, under extreme adverse scenarios, in banking systems in mature and emerging market countries, and between individual b...

  15. Evaluation of tsunami risk in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zahibo

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to give the preliminary estimates of the tsunami risks for the Lesser Antilles. We investigated the available data of the tsunamis in the French West Indies using the historical data and catalogue of the tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles. In total, twenty-four (24 tsunamis were recorded in this area for last 400 years; sixteen (16 events of the seismic origin, five (5 events of volcanic origin and three (3 events of unknown source. Most of the tsunamigenic earthquakes (13 occurred in the Caribbean, and three tsunamis were generated during far away earthquakes (near the coasts of Portugal and Costa Rica. The estimates of tsunami risk are based on a preliminary analysis of the seismicity of the Caribbean area and the historical data of tsunamis. In particular, we investigate the occurrence of historical extreme runup tsunami data on Guadeloupe, and these data are revised after a survey in Guadeloupe.

  16. Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

    2018-01-01

    To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

  17. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  18. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  19. Spinal arterial anatomy and risk factors for lower extremity weakness following endovascular thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm repair with branched stent-grafts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Catherine K; Chuter, Timothy A M; Reilly, Linda M; Ota, Maile K; Furtado, Andre; Bucci, Monica; Wintermark, Max; Hiramoto, Jade S

    2008-06-01

    To evaluate spinal arterial anatomy and identify risk factors for lower extremity weakness (LEW) following endovascular thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm (TAAA) repair. A retrospective review was conducted of 37 patients (27 men; mean age 74.8+/-7.1 years, range 58-86) undergoing endovascular TAAA repair with branched stent-grafts at a single academic institution from July 2005 to December 2007. Data were collected on preoperative comorbidities, duration of operation, blood loss, type of anesthesia, extent of aortic coverage, blood pressure, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pressure and drainage, and postoperative development of LEW. Pre- and postoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomographic angiograms (CTA) in a 26-patient subset were analyzed to evaluate the number of patent intercostal and lumbar arteries before and after repair. All patients were neurologically intact at the end of the operation. Seven (19%) patients developed LEW postoperatively: 6 perioperatively and 1 after discharge. LEW was associated with postoperative hypotension, internal iliac artery (IIA) occlusion, and fewer patent segmental arteries on preoperative CTA. Lowest mean systolic blood pressure was segmental arteries in patients with or without LEW. Endovascular TAAA repair inevitably occludes direct inflow to lumbar and intercostal arteries. The distal segments of these arteries to the spine, however, are seen to remain patent through collaterals. Measures to preserve collateral pathways and increase perfusion pressure may help prevent or treat LEW.

  20. Electromyographic evaluation of high-intensity elastic resistance exercises for lower extremity muscles during bed rest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinstrup, Jonas; Skals, Sebastian; Calatayud, Joaquin

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Prolonged hospital bed rest after severe injury or disease leads to rapid muscle atrophy and strength loss. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of lower extremity strengthening exercises using elastic resistance that can be performed while lying in a hospit......, the present study has the potential to provide a reference table of exercises to select from when individualizing and progressing strengthening exercises during the early rehabilitation of bedridden individuals....

  1. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  2. Institut Laue Langevin. Complementary safety evaluation in the light of the Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    This report proposes a complementary safety evaluation of Laue Langevin Institute (ILL) in Grenoble, one of the French basic nuclear installations (BNI, in French INB) in the light of the Fukushima accident. This evaluation takes the following risks into account: risks of flooding, earthquake, loss of power supply and loss of cooling, in addition to operational management of accident situations. It presents some characteristics of the installation (location, operator, industrial environment, installation characteristics), reports a macroscopic safety study focused of installation structures, systems and components, evaluates the seismic risk (installation sizing, margin evaluation, reinforcement propositions, possible ground acceleration levels, reactivity, cooling and confinement control), evaluates the flooding risk (installation sizing, margin evaluation), briefly examines other extreme natural phenomena (extreme meteorological conditions related to flooding, earthquake with flooding). It analyzes the risk of a loss of power supply and of cooling (loss of external and internal electric sources, loss of the ultimate cooling system). It analyzes the management of severe accidents: core cooling management, confinement management after fuel damage, cooling management of irradiated fuel element in pool, cliff effect for these three types of accident. It discusses the conditions of the use of subcontractors. In conclusion, reinforcement and strengthening measures are proposed and discussed

  3. PAI-1 4G/5G and MTHFR C677T polymorphisms increased the accuracy of two prediction scores for the risk of acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pop, Tudor Radu; Vesa, Ştefan Cristian; Trifa, Adrian Pavel; Crişan, Sorin; Buzoianu, Anca Dana

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the accuracy of two scores in predicting the risk of acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis. The study included 170 patients [85 (50%) women and 85 (50%) men] who were diagnosed with acute lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) with duplex ultrasonography. Median age was 62 (52.75; 72) years. The control group consisted of 166 subjects [96 (57.8%) women and 70 (42.2%) men], without DVT, matched for age (± one year) to those in the group with DVT. The patients and controls were selected from those admitted to the internal medicine, cardiology and geriatrics wards within the Municipal Hospital of Cluj-Napoca, Romania, between October 2009 and June 2011. Clinical, demographic and lab data were recorded for each patient. For each patient we calculated the prior risk of DVT using two prediction scores: Caprini and Padua. According to the Padua score only 93 (54.7%) patients with DVT had been at high risk of developing DVT, while 48 (28.9%) of controls were at high risk of developing DVT. When Padua score included PAI-1 4G/5G and MTHFR C677T polymorphisms, the sensitivity increased at 71.7%. Using the Caprini score, we determined that 147 (86.4%) patients with DVT had been at high risk of developing DVT, while 103 (62%) controls were at high risk of developing DVT. A Caprini score higher than 5 was the strongest predictor of acute lower extremity DVT risk. The Caprini prediction score was more sensitive than the Padua score in assessing the high risk of DVT in medical patients. PAI-1 4G/5G and MTHFR C677T polymorphisms increased the sensitivity of Padua score.

  4. Outcomes for Extremely Premature Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Hannah C.; Costarino, Andrew T.; Stayer, Stephen A.; Brett, Claire; Cladis, Franklyn; Davis, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Premature birth is a significant cause of infant and child morbidity and mortality. In the United States, the premature birth rate, which had steadily increased during the 1990s and early 2000s, has decreased annually for four years and is now approximately 11.5%. Human viability, defined as gestational age at which the chance of survival is 50%, is currently approximately 23–24 weeks in developed countries. Infant girls, on average, have better outcomes than infant boys. A relatively uncomplicated course in the intensive care nursery for an extremely premature infant results in a discharge date close to the prenatal EDC. Despite technological advances and efforts of child health experts during the last generation, the extremely premature infant (less than 28 weeks gestation) and extremely low birth weight infant (ELBW) (CPAP, mechanical ventilation, and exogenous surfactant increased survival and spurred the development of neonatal intensive care in the 1970s through the early 1990s. Routine administration of antenatal steroids during premature labor improved neonatal mortality and morbidity in the late 1990s. The recognition that chronic postnatal administration of steroids to infants should be avoided may have improved outcomes in the early 2000s. Evidence from recent trials attempting to define the appropriate target for oxygen saturation in preterm infants suggests arterial oxygen saturation between 91–95% (compared to 85–89%) avoids excess mortality. However, final analyses of data from these trials have not been published, so definitive recommendations are still pending The development of neonatal neurocognitive care visits may improve neurocognitive outcomes in this high-risk group. Long-term follow up to detect and address developmental, learning, behavioral, and social problems is critical for children born at these early gestational ages. The striking similarities in response to extreme prematurity in the lung and brain imply that agents and

  5. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  6. Complementary safety evaluation of the Phenix power station (INB n 71) in the light of the Fukushima power station accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    This report proposes a complementary safety evaluation of the Phenix power station, one of the French basic nuclear installations (BNI, in French INB) in the light of the Fukushima accident. This evaluation takes the following risks into account: risks of flooding, earthquake, loss of power supply and loss of cooling, in addition to operational management of accident situations. It presents some characteristics of the Phenix installation (location, operator, industrial environment, installation characteristics), identifies the risks of cliff effect and the main structures and equipment, evaluates the seismic risk (installation sizing, installation conformity, margin evaluation), evaluates the flooding risk (installation sizing, installation conformity, margin evaluation), briefly examines other extreme natural phenomena (extreme meteorological conditions related to flooding, earthquake or flooding with a higher level than that for which the installation is designed). It analyzes the risk of a loss of power supply and of cooling (loss of external and internal electric sources, loss of the ultimate cooling system). It analyzes the management of severe accidents: crisis management organization, available intervention means, robustness of available means. It discusses the conditions of the use of subcontractors

  7. A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA

  8. Vacuum-assisted closure downgrades reconstructive demands in high-risk patients with severe lower extremity injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakagia, D; Karadimas, E; Drosos, G; Ververidis, A; Kazakos, D; Lazarides, M; Verettas, D

    2009-01-01

    Primary soft tissue reconstruction in complex leg injuries is mandatory in order to protect exposed tissues; however, it may be precluded by the patient's clinical status or by local wound conditions. This retrospective study aims to evaluate the use of negative pressure as an adjunct to delayed soft tissue reconstruction in patients with complex lower limb trauma. Forty-two patients with 49 complex lower limb injuries were treated with Vacuum assisted closure (VAC) 48 hours after bone fixation, vascular repair and surgical debridement. Wound swab cultures were obtained before and after every VAC application. Duration of therapy, wound flora, final reconstructive technique required, outcome and follow-up period were retrieved from medical records. Twenty-four male and eighteen female patients were recruited, with a mean age of 47 years. All were treated with VAC therapy for 15-42 days. Reconstruction was delayed due to the patients' critical condition, advanced age, medical co-morbidities, heavily exuding wounds and questionable viability of soft tissues. Patients were followed up for 90-895 days. Two wounds healed spontaneously, 6 were managed with delayed direct suture, 31 with split thickness skin grafts and 9 required local cutaneous, fasciocutaneous or muscular flaps. One patient died due to fat embolism. Wound bacterial flora progressively decreased in all but one patient. Scar formation was aesthetically acceptable by the patients while function depended on the initial injury. Negative pressure is a safe and effective adjunct to delayed soft tissue reconstruction in high-risk patients with severe lower extremity injuries, minimizing reconstructive requirements and therefore postoperative morbidity.

  9. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  10. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

  11. Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

  12. Non-thrombotic Abnormalities on Lower Extremity Venous Duplex Ultrasound Examinations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adhikari, Srikar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emergency physician-performed compression ultrasonography focuses primarily on the evaluation of the proximal veins of the lower extremity in patients with suspected deep venous thrombosis (DVT. A detailed sonographic evaluation of lower extremity is not performed. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of non-thrombotic findings on comprehensive lower extremity venous duplex ultrasound (US examinations performed on emergency department (ED patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective six-year review of an academic ED’s records of adult patients who underwent a comprehensive lower extremity duplex venous US examination for the evaluation of DVT. The entire US report was thoroughly reviewed for non-thrombotic findings. Results: We detected non-thrombotic findings in 263 (11%, 95% CI [9.5-11.9%] patients. Among the non-thrombotic findings, venous valvular incompetence (81, 30% was the most frequent, followed by cyst/mass (41, 15%, lymphadenopathy (33, 12%, phlebitis (12, 4.5%, hematoma (8, 3%, cellulitis (1, 0.3% and other (6, 2.2%. Conclusion: In our study, we detected a variety of non-thrombotic abnormalities on comprehensive lower extremity venous duplex US examinations performed on ED patients. Some of these abnormalities could be clinically significant and potentially be detected with point-of-care lower extremity US examinations if the symptomatic region is evaluated. In addition to assessment of the proximal veins for DVT, we recommend sonographic evaluation of the symptomatic area in the lower extremity when performing point-of-care ultrasound examinations to identify non-thrombotic abnormalities that may require immediate intervention or close follow up. [West J Emerg Med. 2015;16(2:250–254.

  13. Achieving Conservation and Equity amidst Extreme Poverty and Climate Risk: The Makira REDD+ Project in Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Brimont

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Achieving forest conservation together with poverty alleviation and equity is an unending challenge in the tropics. The Makira REDD+ pilot project located in northeastern Madagascar is a well-suited case to explore this challenge in conditions of extreme poverty and climatic vulnerability. We assessed the potential effect of project siting on the livelihoods of the local population and which households would be the most strongly impacted by conservation measures. Farmers living in hilly areas must resort to slash-and-burn agriculture (tavy since a combination of topographic and climatic constraints, such as cyclones, makes permanent rice cultivation very difficult. These are the people who suffer most from conservation-related restriction measures. For practical reasons the project, unfortunately, did not target these farmers. The main focus was on communities with a lower cyclonic risk that are able to practice permanent rice agriculture in the lowlands. To reduce deforestation without violating the principles of equity, REDD+ projects in Madagascar need to better target populations facing high climatic risks and invest in efforts to improve the farmers’ agricultural systems.

  14. Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

  15. GCMs-based spatiotemporal evolution of climate extremes during the 21st century in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, Vijay P.

    2013-10-01

    Changes in the hydrological cycle being caused by human-induced global warming are triggering variations in observed spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes, and hence in droughts and floods across China. Evaluation of future climate extremes based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs will be of great importance in scientific management of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, five precipitation extreme and five temperature extreme indices are defined. This study analyzes daily precipitation and temperature data for 1960-2005 from 529 stations in China and outputs of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). Downscaling methods, based on QQ-plot and transfer functions, are used to downscale GCMs outputs to the site scale. Performances of GCMs in simulating climate extremes were evaluated using the Taylor diagram. Results showed that: (1) the multimodel CMIP5 ensemble performs the best in simulating observed extreme conditions; (2) precipitation processes are intensifying with increased frequency and intensity across entire China. The southwest China, however, is dominated by lengthening maximum consecutive dry days and also more heavy precipitation extremes; (3) warming processes continue with increasing warm nights, decreasing frost days, and lengthening heat waves during the 21st century; (4) changes in precipitation and temperature extremes exhibit larger changing magnitudes under RCP85 scenario; (5) for the evolution of changes in extremes, in most cases, the spatial pattern keeps the same, even though changing rates vary. In some cases, area with specific changing properties extends or shrinks gradually. The directions of trends may alter during the evolution; and (6) changes under RCP85 become more and more pronounced as time elapses. Under the peak-and-decline RCP26, changes in some cases do not decrease correspondingly during 2070-2099 even though the

  16. Preoperative short hookwire placement for small pulmonary lesions: evaluation of technical success and risk factors for initial placement failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iguchi, Toshihiro; Hiraki, Takao; Matsui, Yusuke; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Tanaka, Takashi; Sato, Takuya; Gobara, Hideo; Toyooka, Shinichi; Kanazawa, Susumu

    2018-05-01

    To retrospectively evaluate the technical success of computed tomography fluoroscopy-guided short hookwire placement before video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery and to identify the risk factors for initial placement failure. In total, 401 short hookwire placements for 401 lesions (mean diameter 9.3 mm) were reviewed. Technical success was defined as correct positioning of the hookwire. Possible risk factors for initial placement failure (i.e., requirement for placement of an additional hookwire or to abort the attempt) were evaluated using logistic regression analysis for all procedures, and for procedures performed via the conventional route separately. Of the 401 initial placements, 383 were successful and 18 failed. Short hookwires were finally placed for 399 of 401 lesions (99.5%). Univariate logistic regression analyses revealed that in all 401 procedures only the transfissural approach was a significant independent predictor of initial placement failure (odds ratio, OR, 15.326; 95% confidence interval, CI, 5.429-43.267; p < 0.001) and for the 374 procedures performed via the conventional route only lesion size was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.793, 95% CI 0.631-0.996; p = 0.046). The technical success of preoperative short hookwire placement was extremely high. The transfissural approach was a predictor initial placement failure for all procedures and small lesion size was a predictor of initial placement failure for procedures performed via the conventional route. • Technical success of preoperative short hookwire placement was extremely high. • The transfissural approach was a significant independent predictor of initial placement failure for all procedures. • Small lesion size was a significant independent predictor of initial placement failure for procedures performed via the conventional route.

  17. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  18. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

  19. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-12-01

    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  20. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...... in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases...

  1. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  2. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sippel

    2017-05-01

    , the differences between projected and present-day climate extremes are affected to a lesser extent by the applied constraint, i.e. projected changes are reduced locally by around 0.5 to 1 °C – but this remains a local effect in regions that are highly sensitive to land–atmosphere coupling. In summary, our approach offers a physically consistent, diagnostic-based avenue to evaluate multi-model ensembles and subsequently reduce model biases in simulated and projected extreme temperatures.

  3. PREDICTION OF THE EXTREMAL SHAPE FACTOR OF SPHEROIDAL PARTICLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Hlubinka

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In the stereological unfolding problem for spheroidal particles the extremal shape factor is predicted. The theory of extreme values has been used to show that extremes of the planar shape factor of particle sections tend to the same limit distribution as extremes of the original shape factor for both the conditional and marginal distribution. Attention is then paid to the extreme shape factor conditioned by the particle size. Normalizing constants are evaluated for a parametric model and the numerical procedure is tested on real data from metallography.

  4. Double blind evaluation of the effects of various contrast media on extremity veins in the dog

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laerum, F.; Dehner, L.P.; Rysavy, J.; Amplatz, K.; Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis

    1987-01-01

    Canine superficial extremity veins were examined grossly and microscopically in a double blind fashion for endothelial damage and phlebitis one hour and four days after the injection of ionic monomeric or dimeric, and non-ionic monomeric, 300 mg I/ml, contrast media. Superficial veins of all four extremities and the tail vein were injected with the same amounts of contrast medium after application of tourniquets for 20 minutes following the injections. Silver staining and prefixation of the veins were done in situ. The specimens were evaluated together with cross-sectioned, hematoxylin-eosin stained biopsies. On the basis of a randomized study of 77 dogs, endothelial damage or thrombosis caused by various contrast media as seen in man was not demonstrated. This may be due to species differences. It is postulated that canine endothelium may have a higher resistance to contrast medium injury than human endothelium. (orig.)

  5. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  6. Anders Breivik: Extreme Beliefs Mistaken for Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Tahir; Resnick, Phillip J; Harry, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    The case of Anders Breivik, who committed mass murder in Norway in 2011, stirred controversy among forensic mental health experts. His bizarrely composed compendium and references to himself as the "Knights Templar" raised concerns that he had a psychotic mental illness. Beliefs such as Mr. Breivik's that precede odd, unusual, or extremely violent behavior present a unique challenge to the forensic evaluator, who sometimes struggles to understand those beliefs. Psychotic disorder frequently is invoked to characterize odd, unusual, or extreme beliefs, with a classification that has evolved over time. However, the important concept of overvalued idea, largely ignored in American psychiatry, may better characterize these beliefs in some cases. We discuss the definitions of delusion and overvalued ideas in the context of Anders Breivik's rigidly held extreme beliefs. We also review the British definition of overvalued idea and discuss McHugh's construct, to introduce the term "extreme overvalued belief" as an aid in sharpening the forensic evaluator's conceptualization of these and similar beliefs. © 2016 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

  7. Primary Care Fall Risk Assessment for Elderly West Virginians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkemeyer, Vivian M; Meriweather, Matt; Shuler, Franklin D; Mehta, Saurabh P; Qazi, Zain N

    2015-01-01

    West Virginia is ranked second nationally for the percent of its population 65 years of age. The elderly are especially susceptible to falls with fall risk increasing as age increases. Because falls are the number one cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in the West Virginia elderly, evaluation of fall risk is a critical component of the patient evaluation in the primary care setting. We therefore highlight fall risk assessments that require no specialized equipment or training and can easily be completed at an established office visit. High quality clinical practice guidelines supported by the American Geriatric Society recommend yearly fall risk evaluation in the elderly. Those seniors at greatest risk of falls will benefit from the standardized therapy protocols outlined and referral to a balance treatment center. Patients with low-to-moderate fall risk attributed to muscle weakness or fatigue should be prescribed lower extremity strengthening exercises, such as kitchen counter exercises, to improve strength and balance.

  8. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  9. Evaluation of COTS Electronic Parts for Extreme Temperature Use in NASA Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

    2008-01-01

    Electronic systems capable of extreme temperature operation are required for many future NASA space exploration missions where it is desirable to have smaller, lighter, and less expensive spacecraft and probes. Presently, spacecraft on-board electronics are maintained at about room temperature by use of thermal control systems. An Extreme Temperature Electronics Program at the NASA Glenn Research Center focuses on development of electronics suitable for space exploration missions. The effects of exposure to extreme temperatures and thermal cycling are being investigated for commercial-off-the-shelf components as well as for components specially developed for harsh environments. An overview of this program along with selected data is presented.

  10. Usefulness of three-dimensional contrast-enhanced MR angiography in the evaluation of pelvic and lower extremity arteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Young Kon; Han, Young Min; Lee, Jeong Min

    2002-01-01

    To evaluate the feasibility and clinical usefulness of three-dimensional contrast-enhanced MR angiography (3D-CE-MRA) as a screening test in the evaluation of pelvic and lower extremity arterial diseases. Forty-four patients who underwent 3D-CE-MRA were included in this study. Coronal 3-dimensional gradient-echo, pre-and post contrast image were acquired with a dedicated peripheral vascular coil and moving-bed technique on a 1.5T MR system. Timing of start of data acquisition was determined by MR fluoroscopy technique, and 0.2 mmol/kg Gd-DTPA was injected into an antecubital vein, at a rate of 1cc/sec with an autoinjector. For quantitative analysis, signal to noise ratio (SNR) and artery to soft tissue contrast to noise ratio (CNR) of lower extremities arterial system including lower abdominal aorta were calculated. For qualitative analysis, arterial systems were divided into six segments, and were evaluated in terms of conspicuity of arterial systems and the degree of venous enhancement by three- and four-point scale respectively. In eight patients who underwent both MR angiography and conventional angiography as standard reference. Imaging analysis was done by means of consensus between two experienced radiologists. The mean time for the examination was about 15 min (± 5 min). The mean SNR of arterial system was 26.5±11.6, and mean artery to soft tissue contrast to noise ratio (CNR) was 24.6±11.2. Among the total 525 arterial segments 498 arterial segments (94.5%) could be demonstrated with good delineation of entire arterial tree. Good arterial imaging without or with minimal venous enhancement were demonstrated in 98.5% (260/264) in above knee and 89% (211/261) in below knee (p<0.01). Ten of 525 segments (1.9%) demonstrated severe venous overlapping and it mostly occurred in the calf region. In comparison with DSA, the sensitivity and the specificity for MR angiography for the detection of occlusions were 96% and 98.8%, respectively, and for the detection of

  11. Neurodevelopmental problems and extremes in BMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nóra Kerekes

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Over the last few decades, an increasing number of studies have suggested a connection between neurodevelopmental problems (NDPs and body mass index (BMI. Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD and autism spectrum disorders (ASD both seem to carry an increased risk for developing extreme BMI. However, the results are inconsistent, and there have been only a few studies of the general population of children.Aims. We had three aims with the present study: (1 to define the prevalence of extreme (low or high BMI in the group of children with ADHD and/or ASDs compared to the group of children without these NDPs; (2 to analyze whether extreme BMI is associated with the subdomains within the diagnostic categories of ADHD or ASD; and (3 to investigate the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to BMI in boys and girls at ages 9 and 12.Method. Parents of 9- or 12-year-old twins (n = 12,496 were interviewed using the Autism—Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities (A-TAC inventory as part of the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS. Univariate and multivariate generalized estimated equation models were used to analyze associations between extremes in BMI and NDPs.Results. ADHD screen-positive cases followed BMI distributions similar to those of children without ADHD or ASD. Significant association was found between ADHD and BMI only among 12-year-old girls, where the inattention subdomain of ADHD was significantly associated with the high extreme BMI. ASD scores were associated with both the low and the high extremes of BMI. Compared to children without ADHD or ASD, the prevalence of ASD screen-positive cases was three times greater in the high extreme BMI group and double as much in the low extreme BMI group. Stereotyped and repetitive behaviors were significantly associated with high extreme BMIs.Conclusion. Children with ASD, with or without coexisting ADHD, are more prone to have low or high extreme BMIs than

  12. Refugee youth, unemployment and extremism: countering the myth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drew Mikhael

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Refugee youth unemployment has been linked to increased risk of extremism and/or exploitation. Research indicates, however, that unemployment is just one of many factors triggering frustration among young refugees.

  13. The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

    2001-03-01

    he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

  14. Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

  15. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbugua, L N; Mwita, P N

    2013-01-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  16. Upper Extremity Motor Learning among Individuals with Parkinson's Disease: A Meta-Analysis Evaluating Movement Time in Simple Tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Felix

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Motor learning has been found to occur in the rehabilitation of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD. Through repetitive structured practice of motor tasks, individuals show improved performance, confirming that motor learning has probably taken place. Although a number of studies have been completed evaluating motor learning in people with PD, the sample sizes were small and the improvements were variable. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the ability of people with PD to learn motor tasks. Studies which measured movement time in upper extremity reaching tasks and met the inclusion criteria were included in the analysis. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that people with PD and neurologically healthy controls both demonstrated motor learning, characterized by a decrease in movement time during upper extremity movements. Movement time improvements were greater in the control group than in individuals with PD. These results support the findings that the practice of upper extremity reaching tasks is beneficial in reducing movement time in persons with PD and has important implications for rehabilitation.

  17. Playground slide-related injuries in preschool children: increased risk of lower extremity injuries when riding on laps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennissen, Charles A; Koos, Maggie; Denning, Gerene

    2018-04-10

    The purpose of this study was to better understand the factors associated with playground slide-related injuries in preschool children and to test the hypothesis that riding on laps increases the likelihood of lower extremity injuries. Playground slide-related injuries (product code 1242) in children ≤5 years of age treated in emergency departments from 2002 to 2015 were identified (N = 12,686) using the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). Descriptive and comparative analyses, including chi-square testing and binary logistic regression, were performed. Based on NEISS stratified national sampling estimates, over 350,000 children ≤5 years of age were injured on slides from 2002 to 2015. Overall, 59% of the children were male, and 65% were white. Almost 60% of injuries occurred in parks or other public areas. The most frequent diagnosis was a fracture (36%); lacerations were 19% of the injuries. A higher proportion of musculoskeletal injuries were seen in toddlers < 3 years old as compared to those 3-5 years of age (p < 0.001). Injuries to the lower extremities increased in frequency as age decreased, whereas injuries to the upper extremities and head/neck/face were more common in older preschoolers. Children < 3 years of age were 12 times more likely to be identified from narratives as being on another person's lap at the time of injury. Children identified as being on a lap had an increased odds of injury to the lower extremity than to other body parts (OR 43.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 32.0-58.0), and of lower leg/ankle fracture than fractures elsewhere (OR 49.5, 95% CI 31.7-77.4). Decreasing age was associated with a higher likelihood of being identified as sliding down on another person's lap and a higher likelihood of lower extremity injuries. Healthcare providers should be mindful of the potential for these slide-related injuries as they can result in a toddler's fracture of

  18. Public health and climate change. The example of extreme weather events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)

  19. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  20. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  1. Epidemiology of extremity fractures in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerekamp, M. S. H.; de Muinck Keizer, R. J. O.; Schep, N. W. L.; Ubbink, D. T.; Panneman, M. J. M.; Goslings, J. C.

    2017-01-01

    Insight in epidemiologic data of extremity fractures is relevant to identify people at risk. By analyzing age- and gender specific fracture incidence and treatment patterns we may adjust future policy, take preventive measures and optimize health care management. Current epidemiologic data on

  2. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events; Interactions d'echelles en economie: application a l'evaluation des dommages economiques du changement climatique et des evenements extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, S

    2005-06-15

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  3. Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

  4. Remembering the best and worst of times: memories for extreme outcomes bias risky decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madan, Christopher R; Ludvig, Elliot A; Spetch, Marcia L

    2014-06-01

    When making decisions on the basis of past experiences, people must rely on their memories. Human memory has many well-known biases, including the tendency to better remember highly salient events. We propose an extreme-outcome rule, whereby this memory bias leads people to overweight the largest gains and largest losses, leading to more risk seeking for relative gains than for relative losses. To test this rule, in two experiments, people repeatedly chose between fixed and risky options, where the risky option led equiprobably to more or less than did the fixed option. As was predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains than for relative losses. In subsequent memory tests, people tended to recall the extreme outcome first and also judged the extreme outcome as having occurred more frequently. Across individuals, risk preferences in the risky-choice task correlated with these memory biases. This extreme-outcome rule presents a novel mechanism through which memory influences decision making.

  5. Evaluation of the Physiological Challenges in Extreme Environments: Implications for Enhanced Training, Operational Performance and Sex-Specific Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Operational Performance and Sex -Specific Responses PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Brent C. Ruby CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: The University of Montana Missoula...Implications for Enhanced Training, Operational Performance and Sex -Specific Responses 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...Evaluation of the physiological challenges in extreme environments: Implications for enhanced training, operational performance and sex -specific

  6. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km 2 (570-mi 2 ) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation

  7. Cardiovascular consequences of extreme prematurity: the EPICure study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEniery, Carmel M; Bolton, Charlotte E; Fawke, Joseph; Hennessy, Enid; Stocks, Janet; Wilkinson, Ian B; Cockcroft, John R; Marlow, Neil

    2011-07-01

    The long-term consequences of extreme prematurity are becoming increasingly important, given recent improvements in neonatal intensive care. The aim of the current study was to examine the cardiovascular consequences of extreme prematurity in 11-year-olds born at or before 25 completed weeks of gestation. Age and sex-matched classmates were recruited as controls. Information concerning perinatal and maternal history was collected, and current anthropometric characteristics were measured in 219 children born extremely preterm and 153 classmates. A subset of the extremely preterm children (n = 68) and classmates (n = 90) then underwent detailed haemodynamic investigations, including measurement of supine blood pressure (BP), aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV, a measure of aortic stiffness) and augmentation index (AIx, a measure of arterial pressure wave reflections). Seated brachial systolic and diastolic BP were not different between extremely preterm children and classmates (P = 0.3 for both), although there was a small, significant elevation in supine mean and diastolic BP in the extremely preterm children (P prematurity is associated with altered arterial haemodynamics in children, not evident from the examination of brachial BP alone. Moreover, the smaller, preresistance and resistance vessels rather than large elastic arteries appear to be most affected. Children born extremely preterm may be at increased future cardiovascular risk.

  8. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  9. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  10. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  11. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-01-01

    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  12. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  13. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  14. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  15. Temporal changes in morality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Whanhee; Choi, Hayon Michelle; Kim, Dahye; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972-2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003-2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972-1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Extreme weather is increasing flood-related damage along ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-06-08

    Jun 8, 2016 ... IDRC-supported researchers have found changes in weather patterns and in the intensity of extreme weather events are resulting in the ... the design of adaptation policies and risk management scenarios. ... Related articles ...

  17. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk... Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. The articles listed in...(b), pending the completion of an evaluation by APHIS of the potential pest risks associated with the...

  18. Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Among Mississippi Adults, 2001?2010 and 2011?2015

    OpenAIRE

    Mendy, Vincent L.; Vargas, Rodolfo; Cannon-Smith, Gerri; Payton, Marinelle

    2017-01-01

    Introduction In 2015, about 1.5 million adults in Mississippi were overweight or obese. Obesity is associated with increased risk for diabetes and cardiovascular problems. We examined trends in the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity from 2001 through 2010 and 2011 through 2015. Methods We used data from the Mississippi Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to analyze trends in the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity among adults from 2001 through 20...

  19. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  20. Surgical timing of treating injured extremities: an evolving concept of urgency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crist, Brett D; Ferguson, Tania; Murtha, Yvonne M; Lee, Mark A

    2013-01-01

    The management of some orthopaedic extremity injuries has changed over the past decade because of changing resource availability and the risks of complications. It is helpful to review the current literature regarding orthopaedic extremity emergencies and urgencies. The effects of the techniques of damage control orthopaedic techniques and the concept of the orthopaedic trauma room have also affected the management of these injuries. The available literature indicates that the remaining true orthopaedic extremity emergencies include compartment syndrome and vascular injuries associated with fractures and dislocations. Orthopaedic urgencies include open fracture management, femoral neck fractures in young patients treated with open reduction and internal fixation, and talus fractures that are open or those with impending skin compromise. Deciding when the definitive management of orthopaedic extremity injuries will occur has evolved as the concept of damage control orthopaedics has become more commonly accepted. Patient survival rates have improved with current resuscitative protocols. Definitive fixation of extremity injuries should be delayed until the patient's physiologic and extremity soft-tissue status allows for appropriate definitive management while minimizing the risks of complications. In patients with semiurgent orthopaedic injuries, the use of an orthopaedic trauma room has led to more efficient care of patients, fewer complications, and better time management for surgeons who perform on-call service for patients with traumatic orthopaedic injuries.

  1. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  2. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  3. Health status evaluation in extremely premature infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yu. Arkhipova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The health status was analyzed in extremely preterm infants at a postconceptual age of 38–40 weeks and in the first year of life. All the infants in the analyzed group were shown to have respiratory disorders, severe perinatal CNS lesions, and the high incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and infectious and inflammatory diseases. In the first year of life, these children belonged to a group of the frequently ill. Dysfunction of the digestive system and intestinal microflora and residual signs of rickets were detected in the majority of the patients; the manifestations of bronchopulmonary dysplasia persisted in 50%. 40% of the infants had disabling complications.

  4. Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2015-04-01

    season. A methodology for identifying agro-ecosystem vulnerability was developed using spatially explicit information and was tested for arable crop production in Belgium. The different components of vulnerability for a region include spatial information on meteorology, soil available water content, soil erosion, the degree of waterlogging, crop share and the diversity of potato varieties. The level of vulnerability and resilience of an agro-ecosystem is also determined by risk management. The types of agricultural risk and their relative importance differ across sectors and farm types. Risk types are further distinguished according to production, market, institutional, financial and liability risks. Strategies are often combined in the risk management strategy of a farmer and include reduction and prevention, mitigation, coping and impact reduction. Based on an extensive literature review, a portfolio of potential strategies was identified at farm, market and policy level. Research hypotheses were tested using an on-line questionnaire on knowledge of agricultural risk, measuring the general risk aversion of the farmer and risk management strategies. The "chain of risk" approach adopted as a research methodology allows for investigating the hypothesis that meteorological risks act as drivers for agricultural innovation. Risks related to extreme weather events in Belgium are mainly caused by heat, frost, excess rainfall, drought and storms, and their impact is predominantly felt by arable, horticultural and extensive dairy farmers. Quantification of the risk is evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence, magnitude, frequency and extent of impact on several agro-ecosystems services. The spatial extent of vulnerability is developed by integrating different layers of geo-information, while risk management is analysed using questionnaires and economic modelling methods. Future work will concentrate on the further development and testing of the currently developed

  5. Debunking vaccination myths: strong risk negations can increase perceived vaccination risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsch, Cornelia; Sachse, Katharina

    2013-02-01

    Information about risks is often contradictory, especially in the health domain. A vast amount of bizarre information on vaccine-adverse events (VAE) can be found on the Internet; most are posted by antivaccination activists. Several actors in the health sector struggle against these statements by negating claimed risks with scientific explanations. The goal of the present work is to find optimal ways of negating risk to decrease risk perceptions. In two online experiments, we varied the extremity of risk negations and their source. Perception of the probability of VAE, their expected severity (both variables serve as indicators of perceived risk), and vaccination intentions. Paradoxically, messages strongly indicating that there is "no risk" led to a higher perceived vaccination risk than weak negations. This finding extends previous work on the negativity bias, which has shown that information stating the presence of risk decreases risk perceptions, while information negating the existence of risk increases such perceptions. Several moderators were also tested; however, the effect occurred independently of the number of negations, recipient involvement, and attitude. Solely the credibility of the information source interacted with the extremity of risk negation: For credible sources (governmental institutions), strong and weak risk negations lead to similar perceived risk, while for less credible sources (pharmaceutical industries) weak negations lead to less perceived risk than strong negations. Optimal risk negation may profit from moderate rather than extreme formulations as a source's trustworthiness can vary.

  6. Value-at-Risk Performances during the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis: a comparison of three Value-at-Risk models in the emerging markets of China, India and Philippines.

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mi

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the world economic outlook was fundamentally changed by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, risk management and reliable risk measurements have been drew much attentions. This thesis selects three Asian emerging markets, that is, China, India, Philippine, as the research targets and evaluates the performances of three different Value-at-Risk (VaR) models (the Historical Simulation, the Monte Carlo Simulation, and the Extreme Value Theory) in these three emerging markets’ stock markets ...

  7. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  8. Hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Mangen; Chen, Xing; Cheng, Chad Shouquan

    2016-01-01

    Precipitation extremes play a key role in flooding risks over the Huaihe River Basin, which is important to understand their hydrological impacts. Based on observed daily precipitation and streamflow data from 1958 to 2009, eight precipitation indices and three streamflow indices were calculated for the study of hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the wet condition intensified in the summer wet season and the drought condition was getting worse in the autumn dry season in the later years of the past 50 years. The river basin had experienced higher heavy rainfall-related flooding risks in summer and more severe drought in autumn in the later of the period. The extreme precipitation events or consecutive heavy rain day events led to the substantial increases in streamflow extremes, which are the main causes of frequent floods in the Huaihe River Basin. The large inter-annual variation of precipitation anomalies in the upper and central Huaihe River Basin are the major contributor for the regional frequent floods and droughts.

  9. Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, van C.S.A.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties

  10. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  11. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  12. Psychological and Physical Impacts of Extreme Events on Older Adults: Implications for Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Erin; Amlôt, Richard; Rogers, M Brooke; Rubin, G James; Tesh, John; Pearce, Julia M

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, a series of large-scale, high-profile natural disasters and terrorist attacks have demonstrated the need for thorough and effective disaster preparedness. While these extreme events affect communities and societies as a whole, they also carry specific risks for particular population groups. Crises such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan have illustrated the risk of significant and disproportionate morbidity and mortality among older adults during disasters. Age does not necessarily equate to vulnerability, but many physical and psychological consequences of the aging process can increase the risk of adverse outcomes. As the older population grows, so too does the need to ensure that adequate, practical, and appropriate measures exist to offset the specific risks from extreme events associated with this subpopulation. Effective risk and crisis communication plays a key role in mitigating the extent to which older adults are differentially affected during extreme events. By identifying the specific issues affecting older adults, this review highlights important areas for action for practitioners and policy-makers, particularly in the realm of crisis communication. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:127-134).

  13. Extreme wind conditions for a Danish offshore site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt S.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of extreme wind speed gust values measured at a shallow water offshore site and at a coastal onshore site in Denmark. An estimate of 50-year extreme values has been evaluated using a new statistical method. In addition a mean gust shape is determined, based on a la...

  14. Performance testing of extremity dosimeters, Study 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harty, R.; Reece, W.D.; Hooker, C.D.

    1990-04-01

    The Health Physics Society Standards Committee (HPSSC) Working Group on Performance Testing of Extremity Dosimeters has issued a draft of a proposed standard for extremity dosimeters. The draft standard proposes methods to be used for testing dosimetry systems that determine occupational radiation dose to the extremities and the performance criterion used to determine compliance with the standard. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted two separate evaluations of the performance of extremity dosimeter processors to determine the appropriateness of the draft standard, as well as to obtain information regarding the performance of extremity dosimeters. Based on the information obtained during the facility visits and the results obtained from the performance testing, it was recommended that changes be made to ensure that the draft standard is appropriate for extremity dosimeters. The changes include: subdividing the mixture category and the beta particle category; eliminating the neutron category until appropriate flux-to-dose equivalent conversion factors are derived; and changing the tolerance level for the performance criterion to provide consistency with the performance criterion for whole body dosimeters, and to avoid making the draft standard overly difficult for processors of extremity dosimeters to pass. 20 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

  15. Evaluation of the Plastic Surgery In-Service Training Exam: Lower Extremity Questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Jason; Basta, Marten N; Serletti, Joseph M; Chang, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    To facilitate the training of plastic surgery residents, we analyzed a knowledge-based curriculum for plastic and reconstructive surgery of the lower extremity. The Plastic Surgery In-Service Training Exam (PSITE) is a commonly used tool to assess medical knowledge in plastic surgery. We reviewed the lower extremity content on 6 consecutive score keys (2008-2013). Questions were classified by taxonomy, anatomy, and subject. Answer references were quantified by source and relative year of publication. Totally, 107 questions related to the lower extremity (9.1% of all questions) and 14 questions had an associated image (13.1%). Questions required decision making (49%) over interpretation (36%) and direct recall (15%) skills (p < 0.001). Conditions of the leg (42.1%) and thigh (24.3%) constituted most of the questions. Subject matter focused on flap reconstruction (38.3%), nerve injury (8.4%), and congenital deformity (6.5%). Analysis of 263 citations to 66 unique journals showed that Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (54.9%) was the highest yield primary source. The median year of publication relative to PSITE administration was 6 (range: 1-58) with a mode of 2 years. Plastic Surgery by Mathes et al. was the most referenced textbook (21.9%). These data establish a benchmark for lower extremity training during plastic surgery residency. Study efforts focused on the most common topics and references will enhance trainee preparation for lower extremity PSITE questions. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  17. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  18. A new concept for evaluating muscle function in the lower extremities in cases of low back pain syndrome in anamnesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Lisiński

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available introduction. There are difficulties in objective evaluation of activity of the muscles in the lower extremities of patients after successful treatment of sciatica and pseudosciatica, when no clear clinical symptoms are detected. However, the existence of some muscle dysfunction can be hypothesised and its detection was the aim of the study. objective. Recordings from chosen lower extremity muscles during standing were performed as supplementary differential diagnosis in evaluation of these patients. EMG in standing positions constitutes a new methodological approach not described in detail. methods. Twenty patients (11 after sciatica and 9 after sciatica-like episodes were enrolled into the study. On the day of examination, clinical and electroneurographical (ENG; M and F waves tests studies showed no pathology. The percentage of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC defined muscle activity during standing. Mean amplitude and number of changes in muscle activity (fluctuations were measured in surface electromyography recordings (sEMG during normal standing and tandem positions. results and conclusions. Activity of proximal lower extremity muscles expressed as percentage of MVC was bilaterally increased in patients after sciatica in normal standing position, compared with results from the group of healthy volunteers (N=9. Patients after sciatica were also characterized with a significant increase of mean sEMG amplitude, recorded especially in distal muscles on the affected side during tandem position. This pathological change was related to decrease in ‘fluctuations’ frequency in patients after sciatica (P<0.001 more than after pseudosciatica (P<0.01 groups in both standing positions, compared to parameters of healthy volunteers. Sciatica and pseudosciatica in anamnesis cause different abnormal patterns of lower extremity muscle activity during standing positions when recorded with surface EMG.

  19. The clinical efficacy evaluation of transcatheter hardening treatment for varicose veins of lower extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Junhui; Ren Yi; He Ping; Xiong Hongli; Wang Li; Zhou Xianbo

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To explore the clinical efficacy and safety of transcatheter absolute ethanol injection treatment on varicose veins of lower extremity. Methods: twenty-there patients with 25 varicose veins of lower extremity were treated by puncture of great saphenous vein above 1-2 cm of complicated inner ankle, perforating catheter to the point below the 3-4 cm of the conjunction of great saphenous vein and Femoral vein and pressing the conjunction of these two veins. Under the monitor of DSA, inject the absolute ethanol slowly while retrieve the catheter little by little (one limb with varicose veins injected total volume 15-20 mi), in the mean time, using contrast agent to monitor the level of embolism until the formation of total embolism in the all great saphenous veins. Results: All the cases were retrospectively followed up with CDFI examination after 3-12 months of the surgery, No blood flow were seen in the 25 embolismic great saphenous vein. Clinical symptom were alleviated obviously after 2-3 weeks of treatment; varicose veins were collapse after 3 to 7 days. Two cases of leg ulceration were healed after 4 to 6 weeks of operation. 20 limbs were found mild swelling in the 2 day after the surgery. However, all the cases were disappeared after 1 to 2 weeks; 4 treated limbs developed delayed paresthesia in the 3 day after the surgery, and recovered totally in the 2 weeks. No complications of deep vein thrombosis, lung thrombosis etc al, were found after operation. Conclusions: Using transcatheter injection of absolute ethanol to treat varicose veins of lower extremity has the advantage of less invasion, more safety and low appearance of complications. The short term efficacy is solid while the long term effect needs further evaluation. (authors)

  20. Risk factors for neck and upper extremity disorders among computers users and the effect of interventions: an overview of systematic reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Johan H; Fallentin, Nils; Thomsen, Jane F; Mikkelsen, Sigurd

    2011-05-12

    To summarize systematic reviews that 1) assessed the evidence for causal relationships between computer work and the occurrence of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) or upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs), or 2) reported on intervention studies among computer users/or office workers. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for reviews published between 1999 and 2010. Additional publications were provided by content area experts. The primary author extracted all data using a purpose-built form, while two of the authors evaluated the quality of the reviews using recommended standard criteria from AMSTAR; disagreements were resolved by discussion. The quality of evidence syntheses in the included reviews was assessed qualitatively for each outcome and for the interventions. Altogether, 1,349 review titles were identified, 47 reviews were retrieved for full text relevance assessment, and 17 reviews were finally included as being relevant and of sufficient quality. The degrees of focus and rigorousness of these 17 reviews were highly variable. Three reviews on risk factors for carpal tunnel syndrome were rated moderate to high quality, 8 reviews on risk factors for UEMSDs ranged from low to moderate/high quality, and 6 reviews on intervention studies were of moderate to high quality. The quality of the evidence for computer use as a risk factor for CTS was insufficient, while the evidence for computer use and UEMSDs was moderate regarding pain complaints and limited for specific musculoskeletal disorders. From the reviews on intervention studies no strong evidence based recommendations could be given. Computer use is associated with pain complaints, but it is still not very clear if this association is causal. The evidence for specific disorders or diseases is limited. No effective interventions have yet been documented.

  1. Risk factors for neck and upper extremity disorders among computers users and the effect of interventions: an overview of systematic reviews.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan H Andersen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To summarize systematic reviews that 1 assessed the evidence for causal relationships between computer work and the occurrence of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS or upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs, or 2 reported on intervention studies among computer users/or office workers. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for reviews published between 1999 and 2010. Additional publications were provided by content area experts. The primary author extracted all data using a purpose-built form, while two of the authors evaluated the quality of the reviews using recommended standard criteria from AMSTAR; disagreements were resolved by discussion. The quality of evidence syntheses in the included reviews was assessed qualitatively for each outcome and for the interventions. Altogether, 1,349 review titles were identified, 47 reviews were retrieved for full text relevance assessment, and 17 reviews were finally included as being relevant and of sufficient quality. The degrees of focus and rigorousness of these 17 reviews were highly variable. Three reviews on risk factors for carpal tunnel syndrome were rated moderate to high quality, 8 reviews on risk factors for UEMSDs ranged from low to moderate/high quality, and 6 reviews on intervention studies were of moderate to high quality. The quality of the evidence for computer use as a risk factor for CTS was insufficient, while the evidence for computer use and UEMSDs was moderate regarding pain complaints and limited for specific musculoskeletal disorders. From the reviews on intervention studies no strong evidence based recommendations could be given. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Computer use is associated with pain complaints, but it is still not very clear if this association is causal. The evidence for specific disorders or diseases is limited. No effective interventions have yet been documented.

  2. Prevention of Lower Extremity Injuries in Basketball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jeffrey B.; Ford, Kevin R.; Nguyen, Anh-Dung; Terry, Lauren N.; Hegedus, Eric J.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Lower extremity injuries are common in basketball, yet it is unclear how prophylactic interventions affect lower extremity injury incidence rates. Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of current lower extremity injury prevention programs in basketball athletes, focusing on injury rates of (1) general lower extremity injuries, (2) ankle sprains, and (3) anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears. Data Sources: PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials were searched in January 2015. Study Selection: Studies were included if they were randomized controlled or prospective cohort trials, contained a population of competitive basketball athletes, and reported lower extremity injury incidence rates specific to basketball players. In total, 426 individual studies were identified. Of these, 9 met the inclusion criteria. One other study was found during a hand search of the literature, resulting in 10 total studies included in this meta-analysis. Study Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Level of Evidence: Level 2. Data Extraction: Details of the intervention (eg, neuromuscular vs external support), size of control and intervention groups, and number of injuries in each group were extracted from each study. Injury data were classified into 3 groups based on the anatomic diagnosis reported (general lower extremity injury, ankle sprain, ACL rupture). Results: Meta-analyses were performed independently for each injury classification. Results indicate that prophylactic programs significantly reduced the incidence of general lower extremity injuries (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.85; P basketball athletes. Conclusion: In basketball players, prophylactic programs may be effective in reducing the risk of general lower extremity injuries and ankle sprains, yet not ACL injuries. PMID:26502412

  3. Radiation and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobi, W.

    1983-01-01

    From the beginnings of the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy, the principles of prevention and optimization have greatly limited the emission of radioactive substances. In this way, the radiation exposure associated with emissions from nuclear power plants during normal operation has been kept low compared with natural radiation exposure and its variance. This also applies to the local public in the vicinities of such plants. The present health hazard to the public arising from ionizing radiation is only a small fraction of the man-made risk to which the public is exposed in this country. This is also due to the fact that radiation protection employs the principle of prevention, which has been laid down in legal regulations. In this respect, the concepts and criteria developed in radiation protection for evaluation, limitation and optimization may be useful examples to other areas of safety at work and environmental protection. The acceptance of nuclear power is decisively influenced by the remaining residual risk of accidents. Extremely careful inspection and supervision of the technical safety of such plants is indispensable to prevent major accidents. The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants has made an important contribution to this end. It is being continued. However, risk research must always be accompanied by risk comparison to allow numerical risk data to be evaluated properly and important features to be distinguished from unimportant ones. (orig.) [de

  4. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  5. Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, H.; Jones, S. E. O.; Fox, H.

    2018-03-01

    Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere-ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer-reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

  6. Performance of Portable Ventilators Following Storage at Temperature Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakeman, Thomas C; Rodriquez, Dario; Britton, Tyler J; Johannigman, Jay A; Petro, Michael C; Branson, Richard D

    2016-05-01

    In the current theater of operation, medical devices are often shipped and stored at ambient conditions. The effect of storage at hot and cold temperature extremes on ventilator performance is unknown. We evaluated three portable ventilators currently in use or being evaluated for use by the Department of Defense (731, Impact Instrumentation; T1, Hamilton Medical; and Revel, CareFusion) at temperature extremes in a laboratory setting. The ventilators were stored at temperatures of 60°C and -35°C for 24 hours and were allowed to acclimate to room temperature for 30 minutes before evaluation. The T1 required an extra 15 to 30 minutes of acclimation to room temperature before the ventilator would deliver breaths. All delivered tidal volumes at room temperature and after storage at temperature extremes were less than the ±10% American Society for Testing and Materials standard with the Revel. Delivered tidal volumes at the pediatric settings were less than the ±10% threshold after storage at both temperatures and at room temperature with the 731. Storage at extreme temperature affected the performance of the portable ventilators tested. This study showed that portable ventilators may need an hour or more of acclimation time at room temperature after storage at temperature extremes to operate as intended. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  7. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  8. Impacts of extreme heat on emergency medical service calls in King County, Washington, 2007-2012: relative risk and time series analyses of basic and advanced life support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calkins, Miriam M; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Stubbs, Benjamin A; Yost, Michael G; Fenske, Richard A

    2016-01-28

    Exposure to excessive heat kills more people than any other weather-related phenomenon, aggravates chronic diseases, and causes direct heat illness. Strong associations between extreme heat and health have been identified through increased mortality and hospitalizations and there is growing evidence demonstrating increased emergency department visits and demand for emergency medical services (EMS). The purpose of this study is to build on an existing regional assessment of mortality and hospitalizations by analyzing EMS demand associated with extreme heat, using calls as a health metric, in King County, Washington (WA), for a 6-year period. Relative-risk and time series analyses were used to characterize the association between heat and EMS calls for May 1 through September 30 of each year for 2007-2012. Two EMS categories, basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS), were analyzed for the effects of heat on health outcomes and transportation volume, stratified by age. Extreme heat was model-derived as the 95th (29.7 °C) and 99th (36.7 °C) percentile of average county-wide maximum daily humidex for BLS and ALS calls respectively. Relative-risk analyses revealed an 8 % (95 % CI: 6-9 %) increase in BLS calls, and a 14 % (95 % CI: 9-20 %) increase in ALS calls, on a heat day (29.7 and 36.7 °C humidex, respectively) versus a non-heat day for all ages, all causes. Time series analyses found a 6.6 % increase in BLS calls, and a 3.8 % increase in ALS calls, per unit-humidex increase above the optimum threshold, 40.7 and 39.7 °C humidex respectively. Increases in "no" and "any" transportation were found in both relative risk and time series analyses. Analysis by age category identified significant results for all age groups, with the 15-44 and 45-64 year old age groups showing some of the highest and most frequent increases across health conditions. Multiple specific health conditions were associated with increased risk of an EMS call including abdominal

  9. Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.

    2015-12-01

    In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

  10. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  11. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  12. A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

    2014-01-01

    Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

  13. [Evaluation of the risk of mediastinal or retroperitoneal injuries caused by dorso-lumbar pedicle screws].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernigou, P; Germany, W

    1998-09-01

    Within an anatomical and a clinical study, the authors employed computerized tomographic scans to evaluate the risks of anterior surrounding tissues injuries during screw insertion. CT scans of 20 patients suffering from cardiac disease were reviewed retrospectively. Scans through the thoracic and lumbar spine were obtained using 6 mm slice thickness. These examinations were performed with intravenous contrast medium. Measurements of vessel diameters and distance of the soft tissues situated directly anterior to the spine were done. A retrospective study of 61 pedicle screws implanted for spine fractures evaluated the penetration of the anterior vertebral cordex with X rays and CT scans. Computerized tomographic scans of the thoracic and lumbar spine of the 20 patients in the control group confirmed proximity of the posterior mediastinal structures to the anterior vertebral cortex. Many structures of the posterior mediastinum were within five millimeters of the anterior vertebral cortex and thus were at risk: aorta, azygos vein, vena cava, parietal pleura and lungs. The theoretical risk of unrecognized screw penetrations evaluated on geometric shape of the anterior vertebral body is as high as 21 per cent when screw position is only seen with an antero posterior and a lateral X Ray. In the other group, computerized tomographic scans showed that 30 per cent of the implanted screws were outside the boundaries of the anterior thoracic spine. Two orthogonal incidences do not enable determination of whether the extremity of the screw is slightly outside the anterior cortex of the vertebral body. However the geometric shape of the anterior vertebral body enables peroperative definition of a safety zone on two orthogonal incidences. Even if a breach of a few millimeters of the anterior cortical boundaries of the vertebral body may not initially damage the adjacent soft-tissue structures, chronic irritation may result in late damages of these structures. The use of

  14. STUDY ON IMPACT OF SALINE WATER INUNDATION ON FRESHWATER AQUACULTURE IN SUNDARBAN USING RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.K Chand

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of saline water inundation on freshwater aquaculture was evaluated through risk assessment tools. Fishponds in low-lying areas of Sagar and Basanti block are prone to saline water flooding. Respondents of Sagar block considered events like cyclone and coastal flooding as extreme risk; erratic monsoon, storm surge and land erosion as high risk; temperature rise, sea level rise, hot & extended summer and precipitation as medium risk. Likewise, in Basanti block the respondents rated cyclone as extreme risk; erratic monsoon, storm surge as high risk; temperature rise, hot & extended summer, land erosion, and precipitation as medium risk; coastal flooding and sea level rise as low risk. Fish farmers of Sagar block classified the consequences of saline water flooding like breach of pond embankment and mass mortality of fishes as extreme risk; escape of existing fish stock and diseases as high risk; entry of unwanted species, retardation of growth and deterioration of water quality as medium risk; and damage of pond environment as low risk. Farmers of Basanti block categorised breach of pond dyke, mass mortality of fishes and entry of unwanted species as extreme risk; escape of fish and diseases as high risk; retardation of growth as medium risk; deterioration of water quality and damage of pond environment as low risk. To reduce the threats against saline water ingression, farmers are taking some coping measures like increase in pond dyke height; repair and strengthening of dyke; plantation on dyke; dewatering and addition of fresh water; application of chemicals/ lime/ dung; addition of tree branches in pond for hide outs etc.

  15. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  16. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  17. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk

  19. Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

    1987-07-01

    A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did not perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program

  20. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  1. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  2. Evaluation of a morphing based method to estimate muscle attachment sites of the lower extremity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellikaan, P; van der Krogt, M M; Carbone, V; Fluit, R; Vigneron, L M; Van Deun, J; Verdonschot, N; Koopman, H F J M

    2014-03-21

    To generate subject-specific musculoskeletal models for clinical use, the location of muscle attachment sites needs to be estimated with accurate, fast and preferably automated tools. For this purpose, an automatic method was used to estimate the muscle attachment sites of the lower extremity, based on the assumption of a relation between the bone geometry and the location of muscle attachment sites. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of this morphing based method. Two cadaver dissections were performed to measure the contours of 72 muscle attachment sites on the pelvis, femur, tibia and calcaneus. The geometry of the bones including the muscle attachment sites was morphed from one cadaver to the other and vice versa. For 69% of the muscle attachment sites, the mean distance between the measured and morphed muscle attachment sites was smaller than 15 mm. Furthermore, the muscle attachment sites that had relatively large distances had shown low sensitivity to these deviations. Therefore, this morphing based method is a promising tool for estimating subject-specific muscle attachment sites in the lower extremity in a fast and automated manner. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Development of an Evaluation Methodology for Loss of Large Area induced from extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sok Chul; Park, Jong Seuk; Kim, Byung Soon; Jang, Dong Ju; Lee, Seung Woo

    2015-01-01

    USNRC announced several regulatory requirements and guidance documents regarding the event of loss of large area including 10CFR 50.54(hh), Regulatory Guide 1.214 and SRP 19.4. In Korea, consideration of loss of large area has been limitedly taken into account for newly constructing NPPs as voluntary based. In general, it is hardly possible to find available information on methodology and key assumptions for the assessment of LOLA due to 'need to know based approach'. Urgent needs exists for developing country specific regulatory requirements, guidance and evaluation methodology by themselves with the consideration of their own geographical and nuclear safety and security environments. Currently, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company (KHNP) has developed an Extended Damage Mitigation Guideline (EDMG) for APR1400 under contract with foreign consulting company. The submittal guidance NEI 06-12 related to B.5.b Phase 2 and 3 focused on unit-wise mitigation strategy instead of site level mitigation or response strategy. Phase 1 mitigating strategy and guideline for LOLA (Loss of Large Area) provides emphasis on site level arrangement including cooperative networking outside organizations and agile command and control system. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety has carried out a pilot in-house research project to develop the methodology and guideline for evaluation of LOLA since 2014. This paper introduces the summary of major results and outcomes of the aforementioned research project. After Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident, the awareness on countering the event of loss of large area induced from extreme man-made hazards or extreme beyond design basis external event. Urgent need exists to develop regulatory guidance for coping with this undesirable situation, which has been out of consideration at existing nuclear safety regulatory framework due to the expectation of rare possibility of occurrence

  4. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events; Interactions d'echelles en economie: application a l'evaluation des dommages economiques du changement climatique et des evenements extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, S

    2005-06-15

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  5. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  6. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviäkangas, P.

    2010-09-01

    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  7. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  8. Identification of Climate Change with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahayu, Anita

    2013-01-01

    Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.

  9. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  10. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  11. Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Risk Taking Interact to Predict Left-Frontal EEG Asymmetry

    OpenAIRE

    Black, Chelsea L.; Goldstein, Kim E.; LaBelle, Denise R.; Brown, Christopher W.; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

    2014-01-01

    The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) hypersensitivity theory of bipolar disorder (BD; Alloy & Abramson, 2010; Depue & Iacono, 1989) suggests that hyperreactivity in the BAS results in the extreme fluctuations of mood characteristic of BD. In addition to risk conferred by BAS hypersensitivity, cognitive and personality variables may play a role in determining risk. We evaluated relationships among BAS sensitivity, risk taking, and an electrophysiological correlate of approach motivation, relat...

  12. Occupational exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields and brain tumour risks in the INTEROCC study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Michelle C; Benke, Geza; Bowman, Joseph D; Figuerola, Jordi; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Kincl, Laurel; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, Dave; Parent, Marie-Elise; Richardson, Lesley; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Schüz, Joachim; Siemiatycki, Jack; van Tongeren, Martie; Cardis, Elisabeth

    2014-01-01

    Background Occupational exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF) is a suspected risk factor for brain tumours, however the literature is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed whether ELF in different time windows of exposure may be associated with specific histologic types of brain tumours. This study examines the association between ELF and brain tumours in the large-scale INTEROCC study. Methods Cases of adult primary glioma and meningioma were recruited in seven countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, United Kingdom) between 2000 and 2004. Estimates of mean workday ELF exposure based on a job exposure matrix assigned. Estimates of cumulative exposure, average exposure, maximum exposure, and exposure duration were calculated for the lifetime, and 1–4, 5–9, and 10+ years prior to the diagnosis/reference date. Results There were 3,761 included brain tumour cases (1,939 glioma, 1,822 meningioma) and 5,404 population controls. There was no association between lifetime cumulative ELF exposure and glioma or meningioma risk. However, there were positive associations between cumulative ELF 1–4 years prior to the diagnosis/reference date and glioma (odds ratio (OR) ≥ 90th percentile vs Occupational ELF exposure may play a role in the later stages (promotion and progression) of brain tumourigenesis. PMID:24935666

  13. Extreme value theory in emerging markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anđelić Goran

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the performance of extreme value theory (EVT with the daily stock index returns of four different emerging markets. The research covers the sample representing the Serbian (BELEXline, Croatian (CROBEX, Slovenian (SBI20, and Hungarian (BUX stock indexes using the data from January 2006 - September 2009. In the paper a performance test was carried out for the success of application of the extreme value theory in estimating and forecasting of the tails of daily return distribution of the analyzed stock indexes. Therefore the main goal is to determine whether EVT adequately estimates and forecasts the tails (2.5% and 5% at the tail of daily stock index return distribution in the emerging markets of Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The applied methodology during the research includes analysis, synthesis and statistical/mathematical methods. Research results according to estimated Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD parameters indicate the necessity of applying market risk estimation methods, i.e. extreme value theory (EVT in the framework of a broader analysis of investment processes in emerging markets.

  14. Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

    1992-07-01

    In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as a three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described

  15. Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarekarizi, Mahkameh; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-06-01

    There has been focus on the influence of climate indices on precipitation extremes in the literature. Current study presents the evaluation of the precipitation-based extremes in Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We first analyzed the precipitation-based extremes using statistically (ten GCMs) and dynamically downscaled (three GCMs) past and future climate projections. Seven precipitation-based indices that help inform about the flood duration/intensity are used. These indices help in attaining first-hand information on spatial and temporal scales for different service sectors including energy, agriculture, forestry etc. Evaluation of these indices is first performed in historical period (1971-2000) followed by analysis of their relation to large scale tele-connections. Further we mapped these indices over the area to evaluate the spatial variation of past and future extremes in downscaled and observational data. The analysis shows that high values of extreme indices are clustered in either western or northern parts of the basin for historical period whereas the northern part is experiencing higher degree of change in the indices for future scenario. The focus is also on evaluating the relation of these extreme indices to climate tele-connections in historical period to understand their relationship with extremes over CRB. Various climate indices are evaluated for their relationship using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results indicated that, out of 13 climate tele-connections used in the study, CRB is being most affected inversely by East Pacific (EP), Western Pacific (WP), East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlaentic Oscillation (NAO).

  16. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  17. Lymphoscintigraphy of the lower extremity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbasi, N.Z.

    1990-01-01

    Fifty one lower extremities of 26 normal healthy volunteers and 26 extremities of 13 patients with oedema have been studied. Dynamic quantitative lymphoscintigraphy using 99Tc-m antimony sulphide colloid during passive exercise as well as before and after active exercise was performed. parameters of lymphatic function including percentage of radioactivity cleared from the injection site, the percentage uptake by the inguinal lymph nodes, the time of arrival of activity at the regional lymph nodes and the lymphatic reserve index have been evaluated. The percentage clearance of activity from the injection site was found technically difficult to standardize and proved to be an unreliable parameter of lymphatic function. However, the quantitation of nodal uptake, the lymphatic transit time and the lymphatic reserve capacity accurately depicted the lymphatic functional status of an individual. The physiologic parameters of lymphatic function of the contralateral lower extremities were compared and a physiologic difference in the lymphatic capacity of the two limbs was scintigraphically documented. (author)

  18. Dynamic performances of the fallout radionuclides in the environment and related health risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morisawa, Shinsuke

    2003-01-01

    The framework was developed for evaluating the cancer induction mortality risk due to the prolonged exposure to the fallout Sr-90 in the environment, which was released by the atmospheric nuclear detonation tests, through dietary intake by considering the effect of foods and feeds import to Japan. The risk evaluation framework presented was composed of three sub-models: the model foe evaluation of the global circulation of Sr-90, the model for evaluation of Sr-90 concentration in foods and dietary intake, and the model for the cancer induction mortality risk. The mortality risk by the radiation-induced leukemia was evaluated based on the NUREG/CR-4214 model. The model was applied on the reference Japanese for past half century to evaluate the historical variation of the health risks. The new framework is presented and discussed on their feasibility to apply on the health risk evaluation due to the low-level and prolonged exposure to radionuclides in the environment. The possibility to use some kind of bio-markers are discussed to evaluate the potential health risk in advance before the risk will be actually detected. (author)

  19. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  20. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  1. Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

    2013-01-01

    The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

  2. Evaluation of air pollution-related risks for Austrian mountain forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smidt, Stefan; Herman, Friedl

    2004-01-01

    The present paper describes air pollution status and evaluation of risks related to effects of phytotoxic pollutants in the Austrian mountain forests. The results are based on Austrian networks (Forest Inventory, Forest Damage Monitoring System, Austrian Bioindicator Grid), the Austrian sample plots of the European networks of the UN-ECE (ICP Forests, Level I and Level II) and interdisciplinary research approaches. Based on the monitoring data and on modelling and mapping of Critical Thresholds, the evaluation of risk factors was possible. Cause-effect relationships between air pollution and tree responses were shown by tree-physiological measurements. Sulfur impact, proton and lead input, concentrations of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen input and ozone were evaluated. The risk was demonstrated at a regional and large-scale national level. Especially the increasing O 3 level and the accumulation of Pb with altitude present most serious risk for mountain forests. - Despite strong reduction of emissions in Europe, pollutants are still a potential stress factor, especially for sensitive mountain forest ecosystems in Austria

  3. Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2013-01-01

    with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas....... The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental...

  4. Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

    1997-01-01

    This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes

  5. Brachial index does not reflect upper extremity functionality following surgery for vascular trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Simsek

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Vascular injuries to the upper extremities requiring surgical repair are common after accidents. However, neither postoperative functionality nor hemodynamic status of the extremity are routinely described. We evaluated the postoperative functional and hemodynamic status of patients with vascular traumas in the upper extremities. METHODS: 26 patients who suffered penetrating vascular traumas in the upper extremities from November 2008 to December 2011 were retrospectively evaluated. Data on first approach, surgical technique employed and early postoperative outcomes were recorded. Further data on the post-discharge period, including clinical functional status of the arm, Doppler ultrasonography and brachial-brachial index were also evaluated. RESULTS: Average follow up was 33.5±10.8 months. Right (1.05±0.09 and left (1.04±0.08 brachial indexes were measured during follow up,. Doppler ultrasonography showed arterial occlusion in 4 patients (15%. Near-normal brachial-brachial indexes was observed in all four of these patients with occlusion of one of the upper extremity arteries, even though they exhibited limited arm function for daily work. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the postoperative outcomes of this small series of patients with penetrating vascular traumas in the upper extremity revealed that 15% of them suffered occlusion of one artery of the upper extremity. Artery occlusion did not correlate with brachial-brachial Doppler index, probably due to rich collateral circulation, but occlusion was associated with an extremity that was dysfunctional for the purposes of daily work. The result of the brachial-brachial index does not therefore correlate with functionality.

  6. Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1990-02-01

    Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

  7. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  8. Extreme value theory in emerging markets: Evidence from the Montenegrin stock exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cerović Julija

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of Value at Risk(VaR estimates the maximum loss of a financial position at a given time for a given probability. This paper considers the adequacy of the methods that are the basis of extreme value theory in the Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether the peaks-over-threshold method outperforms the block maxima method in evaluation of Value at Risk in emerging stock markets such as the Montenegrin market. The daily return of the Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January 2004 - February 2014. Results of the Kupiec test show that the peaks-over-threshold method is significantly better than the block maxima method, but both methods fail to pass the Christoffersen independence test and joint test due to the lack of accuracy in exception clustering when measuring Value at Risk. Although better, the peaks-over-threshold method still cannot be treated as an accurate VaR model for the Montenegrin frontier stock market.

  9. Age-related vessel calcification at distal extremities is a risk factor of osteoporosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Qin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a cohort study to investigate if the vessel calcifications (VCs found in the distal extremities are an index of low bone mass at multiskeletal sites. A total of 332 healthy women aged 41–80 years were recruited for bone mineral content (BMC and bone mineral density measurement using peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA. Seven percent of the women showed VC at both upper and lower distal extremities based on pQCT images. Women who had VC were then compared with their age-matched non-VC counterparts. Results showed that peripheral VC was mainly formed at distal lower extremities, and the prevalence of VC increased with advancing age, with 0%, 5.6%, 9.3%, and up to 34.5% in the age groups of 41–50 years, 51–60 years, 61–70 years, and 71–80 years, respectively. Compared with the control group, the VC group showed a significantly higher body mass index (25.2 vs. 23.2, p < 0.01, lower BMC at the spine (27.4 g vs. 31.3 g, p < 0.05, and lower BMC (1.8 g vs. 2.0 g, p < 0.05 and bone mineral density (0.57 g/cm2 vs. 0.66 g/cm2, p < 0.05 at the hip as measured by DXA. The diagnosis of VC in the distal extremities by pQCT increased the diagnosis sensitivity of osteoporosis by 50%. The significance of our findings imply that in clinical settings using pQCT for bone assessment and identification of patients with VC in the distal extremities, patients should also be referred for central DXA measurement at the femoral neck for diagnosis of osteoporosis as well as further assessment of vascular disorders.

  10. Mortality after lower extremity fractures in men with spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbone, Laura D; Chin, Amy S; Burns, Stephen P; Svircev, Jelena N; Hoenig, Helen; Heggeness, Michael; Bailey, Lauren; Weaver, Frances

    2014-02-01

    In the United States, there are over 200,000 men with spinal cord injuries (SCIs) who are at risk for lower limb fractures. The risk of mortality after fractures in SCI is unknown. This was a population-based, cohort study of all male veterans (mean age 54.1; range, 20.3-100.5 years) with a traumatic SCI of at least 2 years' duration enrolled in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Spinal Cord Dysfunction Registry from FY2002 to FY2010 to determine the association between lower extremity fractures and mortality. Mortality for up to 5 years was determined. The lower extremity fracture rate was 2.14 per 100 patient-years at risk for at least one fracture. In unadjusted models and in models adjusted for demographic, SCI-related factors, healthcare use, and comorbidities, there was a significant association between incident lower extremity fracture and increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-1.63; HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.15-1.61, respectively). In complete SCI, the hazard of death after lower extremity fracture was also increased (unadjusted model: HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.13-1.89; adjusted model: HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.02-1.71). In fully-adjusted models, the association of incident lower extremity fracture with increased mortality was substantially greater in older men (age ≥50 years) for the entire cohort (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 2.75-4.25) and for those with complete SCI (HR, 3.13; 95% CI, 2.19-4.45), compared to younger men (age fracture itself and underlying comorbidities are drivers of death in men with SCI. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  11. Ultrasonography of the lower extremity veins: Anatomy and basic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dong Kyu; Ahn, Kyung Sik; Kang, Chang Ho; Cho, Sung Bum [Dept. of Radiology, Korea University Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    Ultrasonography is an imaging modality widely used to evaluate venous diseases of the lower extremities. It is important to understand the normal venous anatomy of the lower extremities, which has deep, superficial, and perforating venous components, in order to determine the pathophysiology of venous disease. This review provides a basic description of the anatomy of the lower extremity veins and useful techniques for approaching each vein via ultrasonography.

  12. Ultrasonography of the lower extremity veins: Anatomy and basic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Kyu; Ahn, Kyung Sik; Kang, Chang Ho; Cho, Sung Bum

    2017-01-01

    Ultrasonography is an imaging modality widely used to evaluate venous diseases of the lower extremities. It is important to understand the normal venous anatomy of the lower extremities, which has deep, superficial, and perforating venous components, in order to determine the pathophysiology of venous disease. This review provides a basic description of the anatomy of the lower extremity veins and useful techniques for approaching each vein via ultrasonography

  13. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  14. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  15. Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.

    2015-12-01

    Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

  16. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  17. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pourmahabadian

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The strain index (SI is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The aim of this study was to assess and analyze risk of developing DUE disorders in different jobs as well as hazard classification in an assembling electronic industry through SI method. Also, DUE disorders prevalence, work-related absenteeism and turnover extracted from SI results were compared and assessed by those obtained by Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire (NMQ. The findings of this study showed that more than 50% of investigated jobs are categorized as "hazardous" and there is a significant difference between SI mean in hazardous and safe jobs (P < 0.0001. In addition, significant difference was found between prevalence of DUE disorders in "safe" and "hazardous" jobs (P < 0.049. But, no significant difference (P = 0.3 was obtained between mean absenteeism in "safe" and hazardous jobs. Also, no significant difference statistically was found between turnover in "safe" and hazardous jobs (X2 = 0.133, P = 1 and high prevalence of DUE disorders is due to low turnover rate of workers.

  18. Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model Large Ensemble in Comparison with EURO-CORDEX Results of Seasonal Means and Extreme Precipitation Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Brisette, F.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several extreme indicators like R95pTOT, RX5day and others are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.

  19. Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

  20. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  1. Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

  2. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  3. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  4. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  5. Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libanda Brigadier

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease in extremely wet rainfall (R99p. Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase in simple daily intensity (SDII. Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.

  6. Is prescribed lower extremity weight-bearing status after geriatric lower extremity trauma associated with increased mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gitajn, Ida Leah; Connelly, Daniel; Mascarenhas, Daniel; Breazeale, Stephen; Berger, Peter; Schoonover, Carrie; Martin, Brook; O'Toole, Robert V; Pensy, Raymond; Sciadini, Marcus

    2018-02-01

    Evaluate whether mortality after discharge is elevated in geriatric fracture patients whose lower extremity weight-bearing is restricted. Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Urban Level 1 trauma center PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: 1746 patients >65 years of age INTERVENTION: Post-operative lower extremity weight-bearing status MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality, as determined by the Social Security Death Index RESULTS: Univariate analysis demonstrated that patients who were weight-bearing as tolerated on bilateral lower extremities (BLE) had significantly higher 5-year mortality compared to patients with restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity and restricted weight-bearing on BLE (30%, 21% and 22% respectively, p bearing as tolerated on BLE, restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.20, p = 0.76) and restricted weight-bearing in BLE had a HR of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1.36, p = 0.73). In geriatric patients, prescribed weight-bearing status did not have a statistically significant association with mortality after discharge, when controlling for age, sex, body mass index, medical comorbidities, Injury Severity Scale (ISS), mechanism of injury, nonoperative treatment and admission GCS. This remained true in when the analysis was restricted to operative injuries only. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Carlberg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Bradford Hill’s viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.31–2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years’ latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20–2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years’ latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41–2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma.

  8. Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin

    2017-01-01

    The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

  9. Extreme conditioning programs and injury risk in a US Army Brigade Combat Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grier, Tyson; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; McNulty, Vancil; Jones, Bruce H

    2013-01-01

    Brigades and battalions throughout the US Army are currently implementing a variety of exercise and conditioning programs with greater focus on preparation for mission-specific tasks. An Army physical therapy clinic working with a light infantry brigade developed the Advanced Tactical Athlete Conditioning (ATAC) program. The ATAC program is a unique physical training program consisting of high-intensity aquatic exercises, tactical agility circuits, combat core conditioning, and interval speed training. Along with ATAC, battalions have also incorporated components of fitness programs such as the Ranger Athlete Warrior program and CrossFit (Crossfit, Inc, Santa Monica, CA) an extreme conditioning program (ECP). To determine if these new programs (ATAC, ECP) had an effect on injury rates and physical fitness. Surveys were administered to collect personal characteristics, tobacco use, personal physical fitness training, Army physical fitness test results, and self-reported injuries. Medical record injury data were obtained 6 months before and 6 months after the implementation of the new program. Predictors of injury risk were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Injury incidence among Soldiers increased 12% for overall injuries and 16% for overuse injuries after the implementation of the ATAC/ECPs. However, injury incidence among Soldiers not participating in ATAC/ECPs also increased 14% for overall injuries and 10% for overuse injuries. Risk factors associated with higher injury risk for Soldiers participating in ATAC/ECPs included: greater mileage run per week during unit physical training (OR (>16 miles per week÷≤7 miles per week)=2.24, 95% CI, 1.33-3.80); higher body mass index (BMI) (OR (BMI 25-29.9÷BMI<25)=1.77, 95% CI, 1.29-2.44), (OR (BMI =30÷BMI<25)=2.72, 95% CI, 1.67-4.43); cigarette use (OR (smoker÷nonsmoker)=1.80, 95% CI, 1.34-2.42); poor performance on the 2-mile run during

  10. Effects of ergonomic intervention on work-related upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders among computer workers: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeilzadeh, Sina; Ozcan, Emel; Capan, Nalan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine effects of ergonomic intervention on work-related upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (WUEMSDs) among computer workers. Four hundred computer workers answered a questionnaire on work-related upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms (WUEMSS). Ninety-four subjects with WUEMSS using computers at least 3 h a day participated in a prospective, randomized controlled 6-month intervention. Body posture and workstation layouts were assessed by the Ergonomic Questionnaire. We used the Visual Analogue Scale to assess the intensity of WUEMSS. The Upper Extremity Function Scale was used to evaluate functional limitations at the neck and upper extremities. Health-related quality of life was assessed with the Short Form-36. After baseline assessment, those in the intervention group participated in a multicomponent ergonomic intervention program including a comprehensive ergonomic training consisting of two interactive sessions, an ergonomic training brochure, and workplace visits with workstation adjustments. Follow-up assessment was conducted after 6 months. In the intervention group, body posture (p 0.05). Ergonomic intervention programs may be effective in reducing ergonomic risk factors among computer workers and consequently in the secondary prevention of WUEMSDs.

  11. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  12. Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-01-31

    This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i

  13. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  14. Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

  15. The extremity function index (EFI), a disability severity measure for neuromuscular diseases : psychometric evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Isaac; Wynia, Klaske; Drost, Gea; Almansa, Josué; Kuks, Joannes

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To adapt and to combine the self-report Upper Extremity Functional Index and Lower Extremity Function Scale, for the assessment of disability severity in patients with a neuromuscular disease and to examine its psychometric properties in order to make it suitable for indicating disease

  16. Long-Term Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of Extreme Events and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Eichner, Jan F.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Havlin, Shlomo

    2005-01-01

    We study the statistics of the return intervals between extreme events above a certain threshold in long-term persistent records. We find that the long-term memory leads (i)to a stretched exponential distribution of the return intervals, (ii)to a pronounced clustering of extreme events, and (iii)to an anomalous behavior of the mean residual time to the next event that depends on the history and increases with the elapsed time in a counterintuitive way. We present an analytical scaling approach and demonstrate that all these features can be seen in long climate records. The phenomena should also occur in heartbeat records, Internet traffic, and stock market volatility and have to be taken into account for an efficient risk evaluation.

  17. Evaluation of stochastic weather generators for capturing the statistics of extreme precipitation events in the Catskill Mountain watersheds, New York State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, N.; Frei, A.; Owens, E. M.; Chen, J.

    2015-12-01

    Watersheds located in the Catskill Mountains area, part of the eastern plateau climate region of New York, contributes about 90% of New York City's municipal water supply, serving 9 million New Yorkers with about 1.2 billion gallons of clean drinking water each day. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection has an ongoing series of studies to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the availability of high quality water in this water supply system. Recent studies identify increasing trends in total precipitation and in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in this region. The objectives of the present study are: to analyze the proba­bilistic structure of extreme precipitation based on historical observations: and to evaluate the abilities of stochastic weather generators (WG), statistical models that produce synthetic weather time series based on observed statistical properties at a particular location, to simulate the statistical properties of extreme precipitation events over this region. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) has been applied to the annual block maxima of precipitation for 60 years (1950 to 2009) observed data in order to estimate the events with return periods of 50, 75, and 100 years. These results were then used to evaluate a total of 13 WGs were : 12 parametric WGs including all combinations of three different orders of Markov chain (MC) models (1st , 2nd and 3rd) and four different probability distributions (exponential, gamma, skewed normal and mixed exponential); and one semi parametric WG based on k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping. Preliminary results suggest that three-parameter (skewed normal and mixed exponential distribution) and semi-parametric (k-nearest neighbor bootstrapping) WGs are more consistent with observations. It is also found that first order MC models perform as well as second or third order MC models.

  18. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  19. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  20. Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

    1996-02-15

    To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

  1. Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization and Violent Extremism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alpaslan Özerdem

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the complex of motivating variables that define the push and pull factors behind recruitment and participation in civil conflict, "radicalization"—or "violent extremism"—is not conceived as a very strong motive, as is the case with studies on terrorism. As part of disarming youth combatants,the linkages between reintegration outcomes and possible rerecruitment into radical and extremist violence must be better understood to mitigate such risks. In our analysis, the policies guiding reintegration of child soldiers and youth should be better attuned to the relationship between recruitment motivations and reintegration outcomes, and must be approached from a political lens rather than a purely technical one. The risk of radicalization and involvement in violent extremism is ultimately a structural challenge, which needs to address root causes of recruitment rather than trying to find a solution through a band-aid approach of stopgap reintegration assistance.

  2. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  3. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  4. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  5. Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Peter J.; Jian, Jun

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change. PMID:22042897

  6. Improved Extreme Learning Machine and Its Application in Image Quality Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Mao, Li; Zhang, Lidong; Liu, Xingyang; Li, Chaofeng; Yang, Hong

    2014-01-01

    Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a new class of single-hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN), which is simple in theory and fast in implementation. Zong et al. propose a weighted extreme learning machine for learning data with imbalanced class distribution, which maintains the advantages from original ELM. However, the current reported ELM and its improved version are only based on the empirical risk minimization principle, which may suffer from overfitting. To solve the overfitting...

  7. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, S.

    2005-06-01

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  8. Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

    1992-04-21

    The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of

  9. Current concepts in repair of extremity venous injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Timothy K; Clouse, W Darrin

    2016-04-01

    Extremity venous injury management remains controversial. The purpose of this communication is to offer perspective as well as experiential and technical insight into extremity venous injury repair. Available literature is reviewed and discussed. Historical context is provided. Indication, the decision process for repair, including technical conduct, is delineated. In particular, the authors' experiences in both civilian and wartime injury are used for perspective. Extremity venous injury repair was championed within data from the Vietnam Vascular Registry. However, patterns of extremity venous injury differ between combat and civilian settings. Since Vietnam, civilian descriptive series opine the benefits and potential complications associated with both venous injury repair and ligation. These surround extremity edema, chronic venous insufficiency, thromboembolism, and limb loss. Whereas no clear superiority in either approach has been identified to date, there appears to be no increased risk of pulmonary embolism or chronic venous changes with repair. Newer data from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and meta-analysis have reinforced this and also have suggested limb salvage benefit for extremity venous repair in combined arterial and venous injuries in modern settings. The patient's physiologic state and associated injury drive five triage categories suggesting vein injury management. Vein repair thrombosis occurs in a significant proportion, yet many recanalize and possibly have a positive impact on limb venous return. Further, early decompression favors reduced blood loss, acute edema, and inflammation, supporting collateral development. Large soft tissue injury minimizing collateral capacity increases the importance of repair. Constructs of repair are varied with modest differences in patency. Venous shunting is feasible, but specific roles remain nebulous. An aggressive posture toward extremity venous injury repair seems justified today because of the likely

  10. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  11. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  12. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  13. Antenatal magnesium sulfate is beneficial or harmful in very preterm and extremely preterm neonates: a new insight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Bhawan Deep

    2018-01-17

    To evaluate whether antenatal MgSO 4 is beneficial or harmful in very preterm and extremely preterm neonates. We retrieved published literature through searches of PubMed or Medline, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library. Results were restricted to systematic reviews, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and relevant observational studies. Evidence revealed that antenatal MgSO 4 has neuroprotective role in preterm neonates and it decreased the risk of cerebral palsy and gross motor dysfunction. Evidences regarding association of antenatal MgSO 4 with feed intolerance, NEC and SIP were from cohort studies and controversial. We should continue use antenatal MgSO 4 to all eligible patients according to protocol till the more robust evidence will suggest association with gastrointestinal complications. In the meantime, we should have a high index of suspicion of gastrointestinal complications in extremely preterms particularly <26 weeks of gestation.

  14. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  15. CT-Venography for the diagnosis of deep venous thrombosis of the lower extremities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuhashi, Toshio [Iwaki Kyoritsu Hospital, Fukushima (Japan); Ishii, Kiyoshi; Tsuboi, Masahiro; Saito, Haruo; Ishibashi, Tadashi; Takahashi, Shoki

    2000-12-01

    We evaluated imaging of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) of the lower extremities using CT-Venography. CT-Venography was performed in 11 patients with suspected DVT. This method clearly demonstrated thrombus extension of DVT and collateral circulation. We concluded that CT-Venography was useful in the evaluation of DVT of the lower extremities. (author)

  16. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  17. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  18. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Effects of the belt electrode skeletal muscle electrical stimulation system on lower extremity skeletal muscle activity: Evaluation using positron emission tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numata, Hitoaki; Nakase, Junsuke; Inaki, Anri; Mochizuki, Takafumi; Oshima, Takeshi; Takata, Yasushi; Kinuya, Seigo; Tsuchiya, Hiroyuki

    2016-01-01

    Lower-extremity muscle weakness in athletes after lower limb trauma or surgery can hinder their return to sports, and the associated muscle atrophy may lead to deterioration in performance after returning to sports. Recently, belt electrode skeletal muscle electrical stimulation (B-SES) which can contract all the lower limb skeletal muscles simultaneously was developed. However, no study has evaluated skeletal muscle activity with B-SES. Since only superficial muscles as well as a limited number of muscles can be investigated using electromyography, we investigated whether positron emission tomography (PET) can evaluate the activity of all the skeletal muscles in the body simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the B-SES system using PET. Twelve healthy males (mean age, 24.3 years) were divided into two groups. The subjects in the control group remained in a sitting position for 10 min, and [(18)F] fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) was intravenously injected. In the exercise group, subjects exercised using the B-SES system for 20 min daily for three consecutive days as a pre-test exercise. On the measurement day, they exercised for 10 min, received an injection of FDG, and exercised for another 10 min. PET-computed tomography images were obtained in each group 60 min after the FDG injection. Regions of interest were drawn in each lower-extremity muscle. We compared each skeletal muscle metabolism using the standardized uptake value. In the exercise group, FDG accumulation in the gluteus maximus, gluteus medius, gluteus minimus, quadriceps femoris, sartorius, and hamstrings was significantly higher than the muscles in the control (P skeletal muscle activity of the gluteal muscles as well as the most lower-extremity muscles simultaneously. Copyright © 2015 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  1. Risk informed inservice inspection evaluation of the ComEd nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Hutchinson, J.J.

    2000-01-01

    In November, 1999 Commonwealth Edison Company began the largest scope project yet performed to implement risk informed in-service inspection programs for piping systems. A contractor team led by ERIN Engineering and Research was selected to perform full scope risk informed evaluations on ten reactor units at five sites including 3 BWR and 2 PWR stations. This risk informed evaluation has applied a number of advancements to RISI technology in key areas including risk quantification of inspection program changes, element selection, treatment of multiple damage mechanisms at a given location, and in streamlining an approach to RISI initially developed by EPRI. The scope of the evaluation covered more than 18,000 ASME Class 1 and 2 welds not counting those that will continue to be inspected as part of augmented programs for flow accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and service water systems. When the current ASME Section XI based exams are replaced by the risk informed program, while some new inspection locations will be added, substantial cost savings and person-rem exposures are projected from the elimination of most of the current exams. ComEd expects to recover its investment in the RISI evaluation for each of the 10 reactor units in 1 to 2 refueling outages, from the cost savings of reduced inspections. At the same time, the risk of a severe accident due to pipe ruptures is not expected to exhibit significant changes. (author)

  2. Extreme river flow dependence in Northern Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villoria, M. Franco; Scott, M.; Hoey, T.; Fischbacher-Smith, D.

    2012-04-01

    Various methods for the spatial analysis of hydrologic data have been developed recently. Here we present results using the conditional probability approach proposed by Keef et al. [Appl. Stat. (2009): 58,601-18] to investigate spatial interdependence in extreme river flows in Scotland. This approach does not require the specification of a correlation function, being mostly suitable for relatively small geographical areas. The work is motivated by the Flood Risk Management Act (Scotland (2009)) which requires maps of flood risk that take account of spatial dependence in extreme river flow. The method is based on two conditional measures of spatial flood risk: firstly the conditional probability PC(p) that a set of sites Y = (Y 1,...,Y d) within a region C of interest exceed a flow threshold Qp at time t (or any lag of t), given that in the specified conditioning site X > Qp; and, secondly the expected number of sites within C that will exceed a flow Qp on average (given that X > Qp). The conditional probabilities are estimated using the conditional distribution of Y |X = x (for large x), which can be modeled using a semi-parametric approach (Heffernan and Tawn [Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B (2004): 66,497-546]). Once the model is fitted, pseudo-samples can be generated to estimate functionals of the joint tails of the distribution of (Y,X). Conditional return level plots were directly compared to traditional return level plots thus improving our understanding of the dependence structure of extreme river flow events. Confidence intervals were calculated using block bootstrapping methods (100 replicates). We report results from applying this approach to a set of four rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe and Ness) in Northern Scotland. These sites were chosen based on data quality, spatial location and catchment characteristics. The river Ness, being the largest (catchment size 1839.1km2) was chosen as the conditioning river. Both the Ewe (441.1km2) and Ness catchments have

  3. Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

  4. Multifractal Conceptualisation of Hydro-Meteorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources management, technological or operational developments face a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydro-meteorological fields. It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of the observation scale and yield hydro-meteorological hazards. Throughout the world, the development of multifractal theory offers new techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide ranges of time and space scales. The resulting stochastic simulations with a very limited number of parameters well reproduce the long range dependencies and the clustering of rainfall extremes often yielding fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability distributions. The goal of this work was to investigate the ability of using very short or incomplete data records for reliable statistical predictions of the extremes. In particular we discuss how to evaluate the uncertainty in the empirical or semi-analytical multifractal outcomes. We consider three main aspects of the evaluation, such as the scaling adequacy, the multifractal parameter estimation error and the quantile estimation error. We first use the multiplicative cascade model to generate long series of multifractal data. The simulated samples had to cover the range of the universal multifractal parameters widely available in the scientific literature for the rainfall and river discharges. Using these long multifractal series and their sub-samples, we defined a metric for parameter estimation error. Then using the sets of estimated parameters, we obtained the quantile values for a range of excedance probabilities from 5% to 0.01%. Plotting the error bars on a quantile plot enable an approximation of confidence intervals that would be particularly important for the predictions of multifractal extremes. We finally illustrate the efficiency of such concept on its application to a large database (more than 16000 selected stations over USA and

  5. Neurodevelopmental outcomes of triplets or higher-order extremely low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadhawan, Rajan; Oh, William; Vohr, Betty R; Wrage, Lisa; Das, Abhik; Bell, Edward F; Laptook, Abbot R; Shankaran, Seetha; Stoll, Barbara J; Walsh, Michele C; Higgins, Rosemary D

    2011-03-01

    Extremely low birth weight twins have a higher rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment than singletons. Higher-order extremely low birth weight multiple births may have an even higher rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment. Extremely low birth weight (birth weight 401-1000 g) multiple births born in participating centers of the Neonatal Research Network between 1996 and 2005 were assessed for death or neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months' corrected age. Neurodevelopmental impairment was defined by the presence of 1 or more of the following: moderate to severe cerebral palsy; mental developmental index score or psychomotor developmental index score less than 70; severe bilateral deafness; or blindness. Infants who died within 12 hours of birth were excluded. Maternal and infant demographic and clinical variables were compared among singleton, twin, and triplet or higher-order infants. Logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the association between singletons, twins, and triplet or higher-order multiples and death or neurodevelopmental impairment, controlling for confounding variables that may affect death or neurodevelopmental impairment. Our cohort consisted of 8296 singleton, 2164 twin, and 521 triplet or higher-order infants. The risk of death or neurodevelopmental impairment was increased in triplets or higher-order multiples when compared with singletons (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.29-2.24]), and there was a trend toward an increased risk when compared with twins (adjusted odds ratio: 1.27 [95% confidence: 0.95-1.71]). Triplet or higher-order births are associated with an increased risk of death or neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months' corrected age when compared with extremely low birth weight singleton infants, and there was a trend toward an increased risk when compared with twins.

  6. Reduced brachial flow-mediated vasodilation in young adult ex extremely low birth weight preterm: a condition predictive of increased cardiovascular risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassareo, P P; Fanos, V; Puddu, M; Demuru, P; Cadeddu, F; Balzarini, M; Mercuro, G

    2010-10-01

    Sporadic data present in literature report how preterm birth and low birth weight constitute the risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases in later life. To assess the presence of potential alterations to endothelial function in young adults born preterm at extremely low birth weight (Cesarea, Israel). Endothelial function was significantly reduced in ex-ELBW subjects compared to C (1.94 +/- 0.37 vs. 2.68 +/- 0.41, p < 0.0001). Moreover, this function correlated significantly with gestational age (r = 0.56, p < 0.0009) and birth weight (r = 0.63, p < 0.0001). The results obtained reveal a significant decrease in endothelial function of ex-ELBW subjects compared to controls, underlining a probable correlation with preterm birth and low birth weight. Taken together, these results suggest that an ELBW may underlie the onset of early circulatory dysfunction predictive of increased cardiovascular risk.

  7. The photonic device for integrated evaluation of collateral circulation of lower extremities in patients with local hypertensive-ischemic pain syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, Volodymyr S.; Bezsmernyi, Yurii O.; Zlepko, Sergey M.; Bezsmertna, Halyna V.

    2017-08-01

    The given paper analyzes principles of interaction and analysis of the reflected optical radiation from biotissue in the process of assessment of regional hemodynamics state in patients with local hypertensive- ischemic pain syndrome of amputation stumps of lower extremities, applying the method of photoplethysmography. The purpose is the evaluation of Laser photoplethysmography (LPPG) diagnostic value in examination of patients with chronic ischemia of lower extremities. Photonic device is developed to determine the level of the peripheral blood circulation, which determines the basic parameters of peripheral blood circulation and saturation level. Device consists of two sensors: infrared sensor, which contains the infrared laser radiation source and photodetector, and red sensor, which contains the red radiation source and photodetector. LPPG method allows to determined pulsatility of blood flow in different areas of the foot and lower leg, the degree of compensation and conservation perspectives limb. Surgical treatment of local hypertensive -ischemic pain syndrome of amputation stumps of lower extremities by means of semiclosed fasciotomy in combination with revasculating osteotrepanation enabled to improve considerably regional hemodynamics in the tissues of the stump and decrease pain and hypostatic disorders.

  8. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  9. Evaluation of modeled changes in extreme precipitation in Europe and the Rhine basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haren, Ronald van; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Lenderink, Geert; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the change in multi-day precipitation extremes in late winter in Europe using observations and climate models. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models can accurately reproduce observed trends and, if not, to find the causes of the difference in trends. Similarly to an earlier finding for mean precipitation trends, and despite a lower signal to noise ratio, climate models fail to reproduce the increase in extremes in much of northern Europe: the model simulations do not cover the observed trend in large parts of this area. A dipole in the sea-level pressure trend over continental Europe causes positive trends in extremes in northern Europe and negative trends in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate models have a much weaker pressure trend dipole and as a result a much weaker (extreme) precipitation response. The inability of climate models to correctly simulate observed changes in atmospheric circulation is also primarily responsible for the underestimation of trends in the Rhine basin. When it has been adjusted for the circulation trend mismatch, the observed trend is well within the spread of the climate model simulations. Therefore, it is important that we improve our understanding of circulation changes, in particular related to the cause of the apparent mismatch between observed and modeled circulation trends over the past century. (letter)

  10. EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marossy, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  11. Within-summer variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to extremely long sunshine duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2017-03-15

    Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperatures on cardiovascular diseases, no studies have examined whether variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely long sunshine duration changes during the summer. We obtained daily data on all cases of OHCA and weather variations for all 47 prefectures of Japan during the summer (June to September) between 2005 and 2014. A distributed lag non-linear model combined with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate within-summer variation in OHCA due to extremely long sunshine duration for each prefecture. Then, multivariate random-effects meta-analysis was performed to derive overall effect estimates of sunshine duration at the national level. A total of 166,496 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 0th percentile of sunshine duration at the national level. The overall cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.05-1.27) during the summer. The effect of extremely long sunshine duration on OHCA in early summer was acute and did not persist, whereas an identical effect was observed in late summer, but it was delayed and lasted for several days. During summer periods, excessive sunshine duration could increase the risk of OHCA. Timely preventive measures to reduce the OHCA risk due to extremely long sunshine duration are important in early summer, whereas these measures could include a wider time window of several days to reduce the risk in late summer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. Short-Term Anticoagulant Therapy and Thrombus Location Are Independent Risk Factors for Delayed Recanalization of Deep Vein Thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chuanlin; Fu, Qining; Zhao, Yu; Mu, Shaoyu; Liu, Liping

    2016-01-21

    Prompt recanalization of the vein containing the thrombus is an important goal during the initial treatment of DVT, and risk factors for delayed recanalization in patients with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the lower extremities need to be determined. A total of 174 patients with DVT in lower extremities were recruited from June 2014 to March 2015 at our hospital. Duplex ultrasound scanning was conducted for all patients at 1 and 6 months after baseline evaluation. We divided the patients into recanalization and non-recanalization groups and analyzed risk factors for delayed recanalization. The univariate analysis revealed that an oral anticoagulant time of less than 3 months and venous thrombus location were risk factors for delayed recanalization (P0.05). The multivariate analysis showed that patients with an anticoagulant time of less than 3 months had a lower incidence of recanalization than those with an anticoagulant time of more than 3 months (OR=2.358, Pvenous thrombus location are independent risk factors for delayed recanalization of DVT in the lower extremities.

  14. Clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Il Bong; Dong, Kyung Rae [Dept. Radiological Technology, Gwangju Health University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Eun Hoe [Dept. Radiological Science, Cheongju University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-15

    The purpose of this study was to assess clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans. From January to July 2016, 30 patients (mean age, 68) were studied with lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT. 128 channel multi-detector row CT scans were acquired with a CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens medical solution, Germany) of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA. Acquired images were reconstructed with 3D workstation (Leonardo, Siemens, Germany). Site of lower extremity arterial occlusive and stenosis lesions were detected superficial femoral artery 36.6%, popliteal artery 23.4%, external iliac artery 16.7%, common femoral artery 13.3%, peroneal artery 10%. The mean total DLP comparison of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA, 650 mGy-cm and 675 mGy-cm, respectively. Lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA were realized that were never be two examination that were exactly the same legions. Future through the development of lower extremity perfusion CT soft ware programs suggest possible clinical applications.

  15. Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

    2017-02-01

    In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

  16. Identifying and evaluating E-procurement in supply chain risk by Fuzzy MADM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Memarzade

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available E-procurement risks has emerged as an important issue for researchers and practitioners because mitigating supply chain risk helps improve firms’ as well as supply chains’ performance. E-marketplaces have been steadily growing and there have been significant interest in e-business research. There are different risks and uncertainties involved with E-marketplaces, which jeopardizes the sector but we have had a large amount of hype and the business still continue to grow. The primary aim of this study is to identify E-procurement risks and evaluate them using a fuzzy AHP framework. We contribute E-procurement risk by identifying 13 critical criteria and determine four important ones including the extent of acceptable information, interrelationship risk, lack of honesty in relationships and product quality and safety for evaluating suppliers’ risk.

  17. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  18. Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

    2016-09-01

    To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

  19. Analyzing solvency with extreme value theory: an application to the Spanish motor liability insurance market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María José Pérez-Fructuoso

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of extreme claims is fundamental to assess solvency capital requirements (SCR established by Solvency II. Basing on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT, this paper performs a parametric estimation to fit the motor liability insurance historical datasets of two significant and representative companies operating within the Spanish market to a Generalized Pareto Distribution. We illustrate how EVT improves classical adjustments, as it considers outliers apart from mass risks, what leads to optimize the pricing decision-making and fix a risk transfer position.

  20. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  1. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  2. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  3. Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Tsai, Hsien-Tang

    2008-01-01

    Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. (author)

  4. A Non-Stationary Approach for Estimating Future Hydroclimatic Extremes Using Monte-Carlo Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    There is substantial evidence that observed hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, extreme stormwater events, and low flows) are changing and that climate change will continue to alter the probability distributions of hydrologic extremes over time. These non-stationary risks imply that conventional approaches for designing hydrologic infrastructure (or making other climate-sensitive decisions) based on retrospective analysis and stationary statistics will become increasingly problematic through time. To develop a framework for assessing risks in a non-stationary environment our study develops a new approach using a super ensemble of simulated hydrologic extremes based on Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Specifically, using statistically downscaled future GCM projections from the CMIP5 archive (using the Hybrid Delta (HD) method), we extract daily precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at 1/16 degree resolution based on a group of moving 30-yr windows within a given design lifespan (e.g. 10, 25, 50-yr). Using these T and P scenarios we simulate daily streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for each year of the design lifespan and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution to the simulated annual extremes. MC experiments are then used to construct a random series of 10,000 realizations of the design lifespan, estimating annual extremes using the estimated unique GEV parameters for each individual year of the design lifespan. Our preliminary results for two watersheds in Midwest show that there are considerable differences in the extreme values for a given percentile between conventional MC and non-stationary MC approach. Design standards based on our non-stationary approach are also directly dependent on the design lifespan of infrastructure, a sensitivity which is notably absent from conventional approaches based on retrospective analysis. The experimental approach can be applied to a wide range of hydroclimatic variables of interest.

  5. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  6. Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Szpyrka

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.

  7. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  8. ÜNİVERSİTE ÖĞRENCİLERİNİN EXTREM SPORLARA İLİŞKİN RİSK VE ÇEKİCİLİK ALGILARI (İNGİLİZCE).

    OpenAIRE

    DEMİRHAN, Gıyasettin; AŞÇI, F. Hülya; KANGALGİL, Murat; SARAÇBAŞI, Osman

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the perceived risk and attractiveness of extreme sports with regard to gender. The secondary aim of this study was to test the differences in perceived risk and attractiveness of extreme sports between students with experience in these sports and those without experience. “Extreme Sport Risk Perception and Attractiveness Scale”, developed by the researchers, was used to assess university students’ perception of the risk and attractiveness of extreme sp...

  9. Evaluation of anatomy and variations of superficial palmar arch and upper extremity arteries with CT angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplanoglu, Hatice; Beton, Osman

    2017-04-01

    To evaluate the abnormalities and variations of the arterial system of upper extremities and superficial palmar arch with computed tomography angiography and to guide the clinician during this procedure. A total of 156 upper extremities of 78 cases were retrospectively analyzed using computed tomography angiography. The study was approved by the local ethics committee of the hospital. From the analysis of the computed tomography angiography images, the following information was recorded; the diameters and abnormalities of radial, ulnar and brachial arteries in both upper extremities, the presence of atherosclerotic changes or stenosis in these arteries, whether the superficial palmar arch was complete or incomplete, and arterial dominance. Also, the computed tomography angiography classification of superficial palmar arch distribution and anatomic configuration was performed. The mean baseline diameters of the radial, ulnar and brachial arteries of the cases were; 2.8 ± 0.6, 2.5 ± 0.7, and 4.7 ± 0.6 mm, respectively. A complete superficial palmar arch was observed in 69.2 % of the right hands and 70.5 % of the left hands. For the superficial palmar arches on the right side, the radial artery was dominant in two and the ulnar artery was dominant in 47 with the remaining showing codominance. On the left side, the radial artery was dominant in one hand, with the ulnar artery being dominant in 49 cases, and in 28 cases, there was codominance. In the superficial palmar arch classification, four of the arches (A-D) were defined as complete and the remaining three (E-G) as incomplete. The current study clarified different variations in palmar circulation and forearm arteries to aid the surgeon during trans-radial or trans-ulnar catheterization, hemodialysis, or coronary artery bypass grafting.

  10. Risk evaluation and control strategies for indoor radon: a brief discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nero, A.V. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Average risks of death estimated for radon are larger than those for many exposures in the outdoor environment, but similar to some in industrial settings. However, the indoor environment differs in regard to cost, benefit, responsibility, and distribution of risks from the outdoor and occupational settings, where frameworks for setting risk-limiting objectives and strategies have already been developed substantially. This indicates the need to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating risks in the indoor environment, within which the objectives of radon control strategies can be sensibly chosen. Nevertheless, the range of estimated radon risks and of recent radon control strategies suggest near-term elements of any strategy, i.e. accurate and effective public information, as well as reliable monitoring and control capabilities, and a focus on areas where most high residential levels occur. Developing a conceptual framework for evaluating indoor risks will permit the formulation of suitable aims on average indoor exposures and lower exposure situations. (author)

  11. Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Cherniavska

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.

  12. Evaluation of Postural Stability and Fall Risk in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Inanir

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influences of Ankylosing spondylitis on postural balance and the risk of falls. Methods: A total of 73 sobjects were recruited for the study, including 36 with AS (17 men, 19 women and 37 healthy controls (19 men, 18 women. Patients were evaluated in terms of balance and risk of falls. Balance and risk of falls was assessed with the Biodex Stability System. Results: The mean age, gender and body mass index of the participants did not differ significantly between (p=0.308, p=0.724, p=0.766, respectively. When groups were evaluated in terms of postural stability indexes Overall Stability Index (OSI, Antero-Posteior Stability Index (APSI and Medio-Lateral Stability Index (MLSI had no statistically significant difference (p=0.190, p=0.437 ve p=0.144, respectively. Fall Risk Index (FRI evaluations showed that as patients’ test scores were higher than control group (p=0.001. (Table 1. Conclusions: In this study, we present numerical data that suggests that AS are associated with risk of falling. [Cukurova Med J 2013; 38(1.000: 86-91

  13. Are maturation, growth and lower extremity alignment associated with overuse injury in elite adolescent ballet dancers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Erin; Whatman, Chris; Harris, Nigel; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Karin, Janet

    2014-11-01

    To identify growth, maturation and biomechanical risk factors for overuse injury in elite adolescent ballet dancers. Maturation (Tanner scale), growth (foot length change) and age at onset of menarche were recorded in elite adolescent ballet dancers. A modified knee valgus angle and lateral tilt of the pelvis were measured using 2D video during two dance movements (fondu, temps levé) to quantify lower extremity alignment. Overuse dance injuries were recorded by a physiotherapist. The injury rate ratio (RR) associated with each variable was estimated using over-dispersed Poisson regression modelling. Changes in right foot length (RR = 1.41, CI = 0.93-2.13), right knee angles during the fondu (RR = 0.68, CI = 0.45-1.03) and temps levé (RR = 0.72, CI = 0.53-0.98), and pelvic angles during the temps levé on the left (RR = 0.52, CI = 0.30-0.90) and fondu on the right (RR = 1.28, CI = 0.91-1.80) were associated with substantial changes in injury risk. Rate of growth in elite adolescent ballet dancers is likely associated with an increase in risk of lower extremity overuse injury and better right lower extremity alignment is likely associated with a reduction in risk of right lower extremity overuse injury. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  15. Evaluation of a Water-based Bolus Device for Radiotherapy to the Extremities in Kaposi's Sarcoma Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Seung Kwon; Kim, Yong Bae; Lee, Ik Jae

    2008-01-01

    We designed a water-based bolus device for radiation therapy in Kaposi's sarcoma. This study evaluated the usefulness of this new device and compared it with the currently used rice-based bolus. Materials and Methods: We fashioned a polystyrene box and cut a hole in order to insert patient's extremities while the patient was in the supine position. We used a vacuum-vinyl based polymer to reduce water leakage. Next, we eliminated air using a vacuum pump and a vacuum valve to reduce the air gap between the water and extremities in the vacuum-vinyl box. We performed CT scans to evaluate the density difference of the fabricated water-based bolus device when the device in which the rice-based bolus was placed directly, the rice-based bolus with polymer-vinyl packed rice, and the water were all put in. We analyzed the density change with the air gap volume using a planning system. In addition, we measured the homogeneity and dose in the low-extremities phantom, attached to six TLD, and wrapped film exposed in parallel-opposite fields with the LINAC under the same conditions as the set-up of the CT-simulator. Results: The density value of the rice-based bolus with the rice put in directly was 14% lower than that of the water-based bolus. Moreover, the value of the other experiments in the rice-based bolus with the polymer-vinyl packed rice showed an 18% reduction in density. The analysis of the EDR2 film revealed that the water-based bolus shows a more homogeneous dose plan, which was superior by 4.0-4.4% to the rice-base bolus. The mean TLD readings of the rice-based bolus, with the rice put directly into the polystyrene box had a 3.4% higher density value. Moreover, the density value in the case of the rice-based bolus with polymer-vinyl packed rice had a 4.3% higher reading compared to the water-based bolus. Conclusion: Our custom-made water-based bolus device increases the accuracy of the set-up by confirming the treatment field. It also improves the accuracy of the

  16. Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

    2018-03-01

    Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

  17. Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2015-12-21

    Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007-2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0-27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0-14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

  18. A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

  19. Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

  20. The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

    2018-03-01

    For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.