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Sample records for risk evaluation based

  1. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  2. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  4. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  5. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  6. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  7. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  8. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  9. Evaluating Risk Perception based on Gender Differences for Mountaineering Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanto Novie

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In average 26 death events in mountaineering per year for the time span from 2003 to 2012 is reported. The number of women dying during the mountaineering is significantly smaller than males (3.5 deaths male for one female death. This study aims to analyze the differences of risk perception based on gender and provide recommendations as education basic to prevent accidents in mountaineering. This study utilizes the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Delphi Method. A total of 200 mountaineer respondents (100 males and 100 females participated in this study. The independent variable in this study was gender. The dependent variable was risk perception including perception toward the serious accident, perception toward the probability of accident event as well as anxiety level and perception of efficacy and self-efficacy. The study result showed that the risk perception of women is higher than men with significant difference (p-value = 0.019. The recommendations from Delphi method result are by developing a positive mental attitude, showing about the risks that exist in nature, implementing Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT to raise awareness of the safety of ownself, following the climbing or mountaineer school, and using instructors to give lessons about safety in outdoor activities.

  10. Evaluating Risk Perception based on Gender Differences for Mountaineering Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susanto, Novie; Susatyo, Nugroho W. P.; Rizkiyah, Ega

    2018-02-01

    In average 26 death events in mountaineering per year for the time span from 2003 to 2012 is reported. The number of women dying during the mountaineering is significantly smaller than males (3.5 deaths male for one female death). This study aims to analyze the differences of risk perception based on gender and provide recommendations as education basic to prevent accidents in mountaineering. This study utilizes the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Delphi Method. A total of 200 mountaineer respondents (100 males and 100 females) participated in this study. The independent variable in this study was gender. The dependent variable was risk perception including perception toward the serious accident, perception toward the probability of accident event as well as anxiety level and perception of efficacy and self-efficacy. The study result showed that the risk perception of women is higher than men with significant difference (p-value = 0.019). The recommendations from Delphi method result are by developing a positive mental attitude, showing about the risks that exist in nature, implementing Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) to raise awareness of the safety of ownself, following the climbing or mountaineer school, and using instructors to give lessons about safety in outdoor activities.

  11. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  12. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  13. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  14. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  15. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  16. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  17. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  18. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  20. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  1. Evaluating Computer-Based Assessment in a Risk-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakrzewski, Stan; Steven, Christine; Ricketts, Chris

    2009-01-01

    There are three purposes for evaluation: evaluation for action to aid the decision making process, evaluation for understanding to further enhance enlightenment and evaluation for control to ensure compliance to standards. This article argues that the primary function of evaluation in the "Catherine Wheel" computer-based assessment (CBA)…

  2. Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

    2015-01-01

    The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

  3. A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

    1978-01-01

    Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

  4. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  5. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  6. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  7. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongfang Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  8. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  9. A risk assessment approach to evaluating food safety based on product surveillance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notermans, S.; Nauta, M.J.; Jansen, J.; Jouve, J.L.; Mead, G.C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk assessment approach to food safety evaluation, which is based on testing a particular type of food, or group of similar foods, for relevant microbial pathogens. The results obtained are related to possible adverse effects on the health of consumers. The paper also gives an

  10. Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Som, Pradip; Doorn, Bas A. van; Bakker, G.J.

    2016-01-01

    Current safety management of aerodrome operations uses judgements of severity categories to evaluate runway incursions. Incident data show a small minority of severe incursions and a large majority of less severe incursions. We show that these severity judgements are mainly based upon the outcomes of runway incursions, in particular on the closest distances attained. As such, the severity-based evaluation leads to coincidental safety management feedback, wherein causes and risk implications of runway incursions are not well considered. In this paper we present a new framework for the evaluation of runway incursions, which effectively uses all runway incursions, which judges same types of causes similarly, and which structures causes and risk implications. The framework is based on risks of scenarios associated with the initiation of runway incursions. As a basis an inventory of scenarios is provided, which can represent almost all runway incursions involving a conflict with an aircraft. A main step in the framework is the assessment of the conditional probability of a collision given a runway incursion scenario. This can be effectively achieved for large sets of scenarios by agent-based dynamic risk modelling. The results provide detailed feedback on risks of runway incursion scenarios, thus enabling effective safety management. - Highlights: • Current evaluation of runway incursions is primarily based on their outcomes. • A new framework assesses collision risk given initiation of runway incursions. • Agent-based dynamic risk modelling can evaluate the risks of many scenarios. • A developed scenario inventory can represent almost all runway incursions. • The framework provides detailed feedback to safety management.

  11. Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

  12. RFID Privacy Risk Evaluation Based on Synthetic Method of Extended Attack Tree and Information Feature Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Peng; Xu, Chao; Chen, Long; Wang, Ruchuan

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation of security risks in radio frequency identification (RFID) systems is a challenging problem in Internet of Things (IoT). This paper proposes an extended attack tree (EAT) model to identify RFID system’s flaws and vulnerabilities. A corresponding formal description of the model is described which adds a probability SAND node together with the probability attribute of the node attack. In addition, we model the process of an RFID data privacy attack based on EAT, taking a sensitive in...

  13. The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

    2018-03-01

    For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

  14. Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

    2017-04-01

    In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

  15. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

  16. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

  17. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naime, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  18. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

    2017-03-15

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  19. A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

  20. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  1. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  2. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  3. Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuan; Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T. Shane; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2015-01-01

    The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

  4. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  5. Evaluation of three physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling tools for emergency risk assessment after acute dichloromethane exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boerleider, R. Z.; Olie, J. D N; van Eijkeren, J. C H; Bos, P. M J; Hof, B. G H; de Vries, I.; Bessems, J. G M; Meulenbelt, J.; Hunault, C. C.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models may be useful in emergency risk assessment, after acute exposure to chemicals, such as dichloromethane (DCM). We evaluated the applicability of three PBPK models for human risk assessment following a single exposure to DCM: one model

  6. Application of TRiMiCri for the evaluation of risk based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter on broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seliwiorstow, Tomasz; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Zutter, Lieven

    2016-01-01

    A potential solution for the reduction of consumer exposure to Campylobacter is establishing a microbiological criterion (MC) for Campylobacter on broiler meat. In the present study the freely available software tool TRiMiCri was applied to evaluate risk-based microbiological criteria by two appr...... of microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in the EU is discussed. TRiMiCri provides user friendly software to evaluate the available data and can help risk managers in establishing risk based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat.......A potential solution for the reduction of consumer exposure to Campylobacter is establishing a microbiological criterion (MC) for Campylobacter on broiler meat. In the present study the freely available software tool TRiMiCri was applied to evaluate risk-based microbiological criteria by two...

  7. Tryon Trekkers: An Evaluation of a STEM Based Afterschool Program for At-Risk Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckels Anderson, Chessa

    This study contributed to the body of research that supports a holistic model of afterschool learning through the design of an afterschool intervention that benefits elementary school students of low socioeconomic status. This qualitative study evaluated a science focused afterschool curriculum that was designed using principles from Risk and Resiliency Theory, academic motivation theories, science core ideas from the Next Generation Science Standards, and used environmental education philosophy. The research question of this study is: how does an outdoor and STEM based afterschool program impact at-risk students' self-efficacy, belonging and engagement and ability to apply conceptual knowledge of environmental science topics? The study collected information about the participants' affective experiences during the intervention using structured and ethnographic observations and semi-structured interviews. Observations and interviews were coded and analyzed to find patterns in participants' responses. Three participant profiles were developed using the structured observations and ethnographic observations to provide an in depth understanding of the participant experience. The study also assessed the participants' abilities to apply conceptual understanding of the program's science topics by integrating an application of conceptual knowledge task into the curriculum. This task in the form of a participant project was assessed using an adapted version of the Portland Metro STEM Partnership's Application of Conceptual Knowledge Rubric. Results in the study showed that participants demonstrated self-efficacy, a sense of belonging and engagement during the program. Over half of the participants in the study demonstrated a proficient understanding of program concepts. Overall, this holistic afterschool program demonstrated that specific instructional practices and a multi-modal science curriculum helped to support the social and emotional needs of at-risk children.

  8. Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

    2017-09-12

    Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  9. Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.

  10. Risk assessment of sleeping disorder breathing based on upper airway centerline evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsufyani, Noura; Shen, Rui; Cheng, Irene; Major, Paul

    2013-02-01

    One of the most important breathing disorders in childhood is obstructive sleep apnea syndrome which affects 2-3% of children, and the reported failure rate of surgical treatment was as high as 54%. A possible reason in respiratory complications is having reduced dimensions of the upper airway which are further compressed when muscle tone is decreased during sleep. In this study, we use Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to assess the location or cause of the airway obstruction. To date, all studies analyzing the upper airway in subjects with Sleeping Disorder Breathing were based on linear, area, or volumetric measurements, which are global computations and can easily ignore local significance. Skeletonization was initially introduced as a 3D modeling technique by which representative medial points of a model are extracted to generate centerlines for evaluations. Although centerlines have been commonly used in guiding surgical procedures, our novelty lies in comparing its geometric properties before and after surgeries. We apply 3D data refinement, registration and projection steps to quantify and localize the geometric deviation in target airway regions. Through cross validation with corresponding subjects' therapy data, we expect to quantify the tolerance threshold beyond which reduced dimensions of the upper airway are not clinically significant. The ultimate goal is to utilize this threshold to identify patients at risk of complications. Outcome from this research will also help establish a predictive model for training and to estimate treatment success based on airway measurements prior to intervention. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of our approach.

  11. Research on Liquidity Risk Evaluation of Chinese A-Shares Market Based on Extension Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai-Qing, Sun; Peng-Xiang, Liu; Lin, Zhang; Yan-Ge, Li

    This research defines the liquidity risk of stock market in matter-element theory and affair-element theory, establishes the indicator system of the forewarning for liquidity risks,designs the model and the process of early warning using the extension set method, extension dependent function and the comprehensive evaluation model. And the paper studies empirically A-shares market through the data of 1A0001, which prove that the model can better describe liquidity risk of China’s A-share market. At last, it gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

  12. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Single nucleotide polymorphism barcoding to evaluate oral cancer risk using odds ratio-based genetic algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hong Yang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Cancers often involve the synergistic effects of gene–gene interactions, but identifying these interactions remains challenging. Here, we present an odds ratio-based genetic algorithm (OR-GA that is able to solve the problems associated with the simultaneous analysis of multiple independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that are associated with oral cancer. The SNP interactions between four SNPs—namely rs1799782, rs2040639, rs861539, rs2075685, and belonging to four genes (XRCC1, XRCC2, XRCC3, and XRCC4—were tested in this study, respectively. The GA decomposes the SNPs sets into different SNP combinations with their corresponding genotypes (called SNP barcodes. The GA can effectively identify a specific SNP barcode that has an optimized fitness value and uses this to calculate the difference between the case and control groups. The SNP barcodes with a low fitness value are naturally removed from the population. Using two to four SNPs, the best SNP barcodes with maximum differences in occurrence between the case and control groups were generated by GA algorithm. Subsequently, the OR provides a quantitative measure of the multiple SNP synergies between the oral cancer and control groups by calculating the risk related to the best SNP barcodes and others. When these were compared to their corresponding non-SNP barcodes, the estimated ORs for oral cancer were found to be great than 1 [approx. 1.72–2.23; confidence intervals (CIs: 0.94–5.30, p < 0.03–0.07] for various specific SNP barcodes with two to four SNPs. In conclusion, the proposed OR-GA method successfully generates SNP barcodes, which allow oral cancer risk to be evaluated and in the process the OR-GA method identifies possible SNP–SNP interactions.

  14. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  15. Application of the risk based inspection in chemical and nuclear installations: a critical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Anna Leticia Barbosa de

    2004-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) has arisen as an opportunity for the industry to give a specific treatment to items as equipment integrity, failures consequences and the level of risk of each piece of equipment in the inspection programs definitions. Risk-based inspection programs are replacing the traditional ones based on prescriptive requirements, for both the oil and nuclear industries. The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate how the nuclear industry has gotten over several difficulties in implementing risk-based programs considering that its safety design and regulations have traditionally been based on deterministic and prescriptive criteria and requirements. During the development of the work, the study has shown how the absence of a rigid regulation favored the dissemination of RBI diffusion in the oil industry, mainly in the USA, where such industries do not face those difficulties found by the European plants, as long as it is well known that in Europe there are complex interrelations among documents from different countries with diversity of regulation procedures. (author)

  16. Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2018-01-01

    The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

  17. Outcome evaluation of a community center-based program for mothers at high psychosocial risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo, María José; Máiquez, María Luisa; Correa, Ana Delia; Martín, Juan Carlos; Rodríguez, Guacimara

    2006-09-01

    This study reported the outcome evaluation of the "Apoyo Personal y Familiar" (APF) program for poorly-educated mothers from multi-problem families, showing inadequate behavior with their children. APF is a community-based multi-site program delivered through weekly group meetings in municipal resource centers. A total of 340 mothers referred by the municipal social services of Tenerife, Spain were assessed; 185 mothers participated in the APF program that lasted 8 months, and 155 mothers were in the control group. Pre-post test comparisons for the intervention group and post-test comparisons with the control group on self-rating measures of maternal beliefs, personal agency and child-rearing practices were performed. Multivariate tests, t tests and effect sizes (ES) were calculated to determine the program effectiveness on the outcome measures. Mothers' support of nurturist and nativist beliefs and the reported use of Neglect-permissive and Coercive practices significantly decreased after program completion whereas the reported use of Inductive practices significantly increased. Increases in self-efficacy, internal control and role difficulty were also significant in relation to those of the control group. The program was especially effective for older mothers, with fewer children, living in a two-parent family, in urban areas and with either low or medium educational levels. The program was very effective in changing the mothers' perceived competences and modestly effective in changing their beliefs about child development and education and reported child-rearing practices. Changes in personal agency are very important for at-risk parents who feel helpless and with no control over their lives.

  18. Screening Models for Cardiac Risk Evaluation in Emergency Abdominal Surgery. I. Evaluation of the Intraoperative Period Risk based on Data from the Preoperative Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail Matveev

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A classification of intraoperative cardio-vascular complications (CVC was performed, based on data from 466 patients subjected to emergency surgery, due to severe abdominal surgical diseases or traumas, in accordance with the severe criteria of ACC/AHA for CVC in noncardiac surgery. There were 370 intraoperative CVC registered, distributed as follows: groups with low risk (148, moderate risk (200, and high risk (22. Patient groups were formed, according to the CVC risk level, during the intraoperative period, for which the determinant factor for the group distribution of patients was the complication with the highest risk. Individual data was collected for each patient, based on 65 indices: age, physical status, diseases, surgical interventions, anaesthesiological information, intra and postoperative cardio-vascular complications, disease outcome, causes of death, cardiovascular disease anamnesis, anamnesis of all other nonsurgical diseases present, laboratory results, results from all imaging and instrumental examinations, etc. On the basis of these indices, a new distribution of the risk factors was implemented, into groups with different levels of risk of CVC during intraoperative period. This result is a solid argument, substantiating the proposal to introduce these adjustments for determining the severity of CVC in the specific conditions of emergency abdominal surgery.

  19. Evaluating the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Based on an Artificial Intelligence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome is worldwide public health problem and is a serious threat to people's health and lives. Understanding the relationship between metabolic syndrome and the physical symptoms is a difficult and challenging task, and few studies have been performed in this field. It is important to classify adults who are at high risk of metabolic syndrome without having to use a biochemical index and, likewise, it is important to develop technology that has a high economic rate of return to simplify the complexity of this detection. In this paper, an artificial intelligence model was developed to identify adults at risk of metabolic syndrome based on physical signs; this artificial intelligence model achieved more powerful capacity for classification compared to the PCLR (principal component logistic regression model. A case study was performed based on the physical signs data, without using a biochemical index, that was collected from the staff of Lanzhou Grid Company in Gansu province of China. The results show that the developed artificial intelligence model is an effective classification system for identifying individuals at high risk of metabolic syndrome.

  20. Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

    2017-11-06

    The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

  1. Risk-based evaluation tool for safety-related maintenance involving scaffolding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, C.; Azizi, M.; Massman, M.

    1988-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has expressed a general concern that transient materials in and around safety systems at nuclear power plants represent a seismic safety hazard to the plant, in particular, the uncontrolled use of scaffolding during maintenance activities. Currently, most plants perform a seismic safety analysis for all uses of scaffolding near safety-related equipment to determine appropriate tie-down locations, scaffolding reinforcements, etc. This is both time-consuming and, for the most part, unnecessary. A workable engineering solution based on risk analysis techniques has been developed and is being used at the Palo Verde nuclear generating station (PVNGS)

  2. Risk Management and Simulation Based Live Fire Test and Evaluation in the Performance Based Defense Business Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, R

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this analysis is to reduce the policy and management process costs of Congressionally mandated Live Fire Test and Evaluation procedures in the new Performance Based Defense Acquisition environment...

  3. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O., E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

  5. Evaluation of piping reliability and failure data for use in risk-based inspections of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de; Soares, W.A.; Costa, A.C.L. da; Rabello, E.G.; Marques, R.O.

    2016-01-01

    During operation of industrial facilities, components and systems can deteriorate over time, thus increasing the possibility of accidents. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) involves inspection planning based on information about risks, through assessing of probability and consequence of failures. In-service inspections are used in nuclear power plants, in order to ensure reliable and safe operation. Traditional deterministic inspection approaches investigate generic degradation mechanisms on all systems. However, operating experience indicates that degradation occurs where there are favorable conditions for developing a specific mechanism. Inspections should be prioritized at these places. Risk-Informed In-service Inspections (RI-ISI) are types of RBI that use Probabilistic Safety Assessment results, increasing reliability and plant safety, and reducing radiation exposure. These assessments use both available generic reliability and failure data, as well as plant specific information. This paper proposes a method for evaluating piping reliability and failure data important for RI-ISI programs, as well as the techniques involved. (author)

  6. EVALUATION OF MILITARY ACTIVITY IMPACT ON HUMANS THROUGH A PROBABILISTIC ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT. EXAMPLE OF A FORMER MISSILE BASE.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiy ОREL

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The current article provides a methodology focused on the assessment of environmental factors after termination of military activity and uses a former missile base as an example. The assessment of environmental conditions is performed through an evaluation of the risks posed by the hazardous chemicals contained by underground and surface water sources and soil to human health . Moreover, by conducting deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments, the article determines that the probabilistic assessment provides more accurate and qualitative information for decision-making on the use of environmental protection measures, which often saves financial and material resources needed for their implementation.

  7. An evaluation of the exemption level for the radiation protection regulation based on the social risk acceptance in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Ki Don

    1998-02-01

    Radiation protection is based not only on the science but also on the political, social, economical and emotional factors, so a policy decision for a factor like the exemption level in this field must be considered social expectation and valuation as well as scientific evaluation. In this paper, an attempt was made to get a rationale on the exemption level, which has a significant meaning in radiation protection, by means of surveying the social risk acceptance in Korea. Risk perception data were collected by mail surveys to the respondents randomly selected in the city of Seoul. A poor response rate, 156 out of 400, was observed. The result showed that the majority of the respondents agreed upon setting a de mini mis level of risk and the favoured de mini mis level appeared to be in the range of 10 -6 yr -1 to 10 -7 yr -1 , which is consistent with the level suggested by other organizations: ICRP, EPA and NRPB. Approximately the same risk level, unfortunately, was obtained for the risk limits against a harmful agent, which makes no sense. It can be attributed to mis-communication due to the questionnaires inadequately designed. The acceptable risk level for a single practice was selected to be 1/100 or less of the risk limits, which seemed overly conservative, but could be understood in the light of the public attitude of outrage. There seems to be tendency that the public recognize the risk significant if it is not de mini mis. This study should not be regarded as one giving a satisfactory conclusion but a preliminary attempt to evaluate the acceptable risk level. More endeavors in design of questionnaires are needed to communicate successfully with the members of the public

  8. A new cyber security risk evaluation method for oil and gas SCADA based on factor state space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Li; Cao, Xiedong; Li, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Based on comprehensive analysis of the structure and the potential safety problem of oil and gas SCADA(Supervisor control and data acquisition) network, aiming at the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods, combining factor state space and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a new network security risk evaluation method of oil and gas SCADA is proposed. First of all, formal description of factor state space and its complete mathematical definition were presented; secondly, factor fuzzy evaluation steps were discussed; then, using analytic hierarchy method, evaluation index system for oil and gas SCADA system was established, the index weights of all factors were determined by two-two comparisons; structure design of three layers in reasoning machine was completed. Experiments and tests show that the proposed method is accurate, reliable and practical. Research results provide the template and the new method for the other industries.

  9. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  10. Supply Chain Collaboration Risk Evaluation Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers Similarity

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Wen; Wei Zhao; Rui Wang

    2013-01-01

    Supply chains are confronted with more complicated risks on the current financial crisis, as makes risk control in supply chain management more exigent. Supply chain collaboration, as the important part of supply chain management, is the key method of improving supply chains profits. This study introduces risk management into the mechanism of supply chain collaboration. In supply chain risk management, supply chain collaboration risk is recognized as an important section which can help SCM mo...

  11. Evaluation of caries risk in a young adult population using a computer-based risk assessment model (Cariogram

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilkay Peker

    2012-06-01

    Conclusions: According to the results of this study, the most important factors for caries risk were the past caries experience, fluoride programs, and S. mutans and Lactobacillus counts in saliva. Cariogram is a helpful method for dentists in clinical practice to assess caries risk, and it can be used as a didactic tool for patient education and motivation.

  12. New exposure-based metric approach for evaluating O3 risk to North American aspen forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Percy, K.E.; Nosal, M.; Heilman, W.; Dann, T.; Sober, J.; Legge, A.H.; Karnosky, D.F.

    2007-01-01

    The United States and Canada currently use exposure-based metrics to protect vegetation from O 3 . Using 5 years (1999-2003) of co-measured O 3 , meteorology and growth response, we have developed exposure-based regression models that predict Populus tremuloides growth change within the North American ambient air quality context. The models comprised growing season fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average O 3 concentration, growing degree days, and wind speed. They had high statistical significance, high goodness of fit, include 95% confidence intervals for tree growth change, and are simple to use. Averaged across a wide range of clonal sensitivity, historical 2001-2003 growth change over most of the 26 M ha P. tremuloides distribution was estimated to have ranged from no impact (0%) to strong negative impacts (-31%). With four aspen clones responding negatively (one responded positively) to O 3 , the growing season fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average O 3 concentration performed much better than growing season SUM06, AOT40 or maximum 1 h average O 3 concentration metrics as a single indicator of aspen stem cross-sectional area growth. - A new exposure-based metric approach to predict O 3 risk to North American aspen forests has been developed

  13. An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Ching Y. Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

  14. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  15. A nomogram based on mammary ductoscopic indicators for evaluating the risk of breast cancer in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Zhen-Qiang; Wang, Qi; Zhang, An-Qin; Zhang, Jiang-Yu; Han, Xiao-Rong; Yu, Hai-Yun; Xie, Si-Mei

    2015-04-01

    Mammary ductoscopy (MD) is commonly used to detect intraductal lesions associated with nipple discharge. This study investigated the relationships between ductoscopic image-based indicators and breast cancer risk, and developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge. A total of 879 consecutive inpatients (916 breasts) with nipple discharge who underwent selective duct excision for intraductal neoplasms detected by MD from June 2008 to April 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. A nomogram was developed using a multivariate logistic regression model based on data from a training set (687 cases) and validated in an independent validation set (229 cases). A Youden-derived cut-off value was assigned to the nomogram for the diagnosis of breast cancer. Color of discharge, location, appearance, and surface of neoplasm, and morphology of ductal wall were independent predictors for breast cancer in multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram based on these predictors performed well. The P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the prediction model was 0.36. Area under the curve values of 0.812 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.763-0.860) and 0.738 (95 % CI 0.635-0.841) was obtained in the training and validation sets, respectively. The accuracies of the nomogram for breast cancer diagnosis were 71.2 % in the training set and 75.5 % in the validation set. We developed a nomogram for evaluating breast cancer risk in intraductal neoplasms with nipple discharge based on MD image findings. This model may aid individual risk assessment and guide treatment in clinical practice.

  16. Evaluation of severe accident safety system value based on averting financial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatch, S.W.; Benjamin, A.S.; Bennett, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program is being performed to benchmark the risks from nuclear power plants and to assess the benefits and impacts of a set of severe accident safety features. This paper describes the program in general and presents some preliminary results. These results include estimates of the financial risks associated with the operation of six reference plants and the value of severe accident prevention and mitigation safety systems in averting these risks. The results represent initial calculations and will be iterated before being used to support NRC decisions

  17. Evaluation of end-user satisfaction among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Laan, Eva K; Colkesen, Ersen B; Niessen, Maurice A J; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

    2012-10-30

    Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Most people

  18. A School-Based Evaluation Model for Accelerating the Education of Students At-Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetterman, David M.; Haertel, Edward H.

    This paper presents ideas for the development and utilization of a comprehensive evaluation plan for an accelerated school. It contains information about the purposes of a comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation design, and the kinds of data that might be gathered and used. The first section, "An Approach to Evaluation: Multiple Purposes and…

  19. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B. [and others

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach.

  20. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach

  1. Development and Evaluation of a Simple, Multifactorial Model Based on Landing Performance to Indicate Injury Risk in Surfing Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Lina E; Tran, Tai T; Nimphius, Sophia; Raymond, Ellen; Secomb, Josh L; Farley, Oliver R L; Newton, Robert U; Steele, Julie R; Sheppard, Jeremy M

    2015-11-01

    To develop and evaluate a multifactorial model based on landing performance to estimate injury risk for surfing athletes. Five measures were collected from 78 competitive surfing athletes and used to create a model to serve as a screening tool for landing tasks and potential injury risk. In the second part of the study, the model was evaluated using junior surfing athletes (n = 32) with a longitudinal follow-up of their injuries over 26 wk. Two models were compared based on the collected data, and magnitude-based inferences were applied to determine the likelihood of differences between injured and noninjured groups. The study resulted in a model based on 5 measures--ankle-dorsiflexion range of motion, isometric midthigh-pull lower-body strength, time to stabilization during a drop-and-stick (DS) landing, relative peak force during a DS landing, and frontal-plane DS-landing video analysis--for male and female professional surfers and male and female junior surfers. Evaluation of the model showed that a scaled probability score was more likely to detect injuries in junior surfing athletes and reported a correlation of r = .66, P = .001, with a model of equal variable importance. The injured (n = 7) surfers had a lower probability score (0.18 ± 0.16) than the noninjured group (n = 25, 0.36 ± 0.15), with 98% likelihood, Cohen d = 1.04. The proposed model seems sensitive and easy to implement and interpret. Further research is recommended to show full validity for potential adaptations for other sports.

  2. Evaluating the Agreement of Risk Categorization for Fetal Down Syndrome Screening between Ultrasound-Based Gestational Age and Menstrual-Based Gestational Age by Maternal Serum Markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaksuwat, Pakorn; Sirichotiyakul, Supatra; Luewan, Suchaya; Tongsong, Theera

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the agreement of risk categorization for Down syndrome screening between ultrasound scan-based gestational age (GA) and last menstrual period-based gestational age in both first and second trimesters by maternal serum markers. Data comprising 4,055 and 4,016 cases of first and second trimester screening were used. The maternal serum markers were analyzed using the ultrasound-based GA and menstrual age. The subjects whose menstrual age and ultrasound-based GA fell in different trimesters were excluded because the risk could not be calculated due to the different serum markers used in each trimester. The agreement of risk categorization for fetal Down syndrome was evaluated. The agreement of Down syndrome screening in the first and the second trimesters were 92.7% and 89%, respectively. The study found a good agreement of risk categorization by Kappa index, which was 0.615 for the overall screening. The menstrual age had a slight decrease in the detection rate and a lower false-positive rate. Menstrual age is acceptable in cases of accurate last menstrual period. However, in places where ultrasonography is not readily available, gestational age estimation by menstrual age along with clinical examination that corresponds to the gestational age can be reliable.

  3. Evaluation of a community-based participatory physical activity promotion project: effect on cardiovascular disease risk profiles of school employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kobza Cee E

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The efficacy of physical activity in improving cardiovascular disease (CVD risk profiles has been well established. However, the effectiveness of health promotion programs implemented at the community level remains controversial. This study evaluated a school-based work-site physical activity program. Methods Using a community-based participatory research model, a work-site wellness intervention was implemented in a rural public school system in Southwestern Oklahoma. During the 2005-2006 school year, 187 participants (mean age 45 years completed a pre intervention screening for CVD risk factors followed by a physical activity promotion program. Post intervention screening was conducted after a 6 month period. During both screening sessions, body composition, blood pressure, lipids, glucose and self-reported physical activity levels were assessed. The focus of the intervention was on promoting physical activity. Opportunities for in school physical activity were created by marking hallways, adding a treadmill in each school, and allowing teachers to use planning periods for physical activity. Results During the post intervention screening, compared to pre intervention levels, participants had lower total, low, and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (t = 5.9, p Conclusions A successful participatory program was associated with improvements in several CVD risk factors among school employees. Limitations of this study such as seasonal variation in the outcome variables and lack of a control group limit our ability to draw solid conclusions about the effectiveness of the intervention.

  4. GIS-based flood risk model evaluated by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukcharoen, Tharapong; Weng, Jingnong; Teetat, Charoenkalunyuta

    2016-10-01

    Over the last 2-3 decades, the economy of many countries around the world has been developed rapidly but it was unbalanced development because of expecting on economic growth only. Meanwhile it lacked of effective planning in the use of natural resources. This can significantly induce climate change which is major cause of natural disaster. Hereby, Thailand has also suffered from natural disaster for ages. Especially, the flood which is most hazardous disaster in Thailand can annually result in the great loss of life and property, environment and economy. Since the flood management of country is inadequate efficiency. It is unable to support the flood analysis comprehensively. This paper applied Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Making to create flood risk model at regional scale. Angthong province in Thailand was used as the study area. In practical process, Fuzzy logic technique has been used to improve specialist's assessment by implementing with Fuzzy membership because human decision is flawed under uncertainty then AHP technique was processed orderly. The hierarchy structure in this paper was categorized the spatial flood factors into two levels as following: 6 criteria (Meteorology, Geology, Topography, Hydrology, Human and Flood history) and 8 factors (Average Rainfall, Distance from Stream, Soil drainage capability, Slope, Elevation, Land use, Distance from road and Flooded area in the past). The validity of the pair-wise comparison in AHP was shown as C.R. value which indicated that the specialist judgment was reasonably consistent. FAHP computation result has shown that the first priority of criteria was Meteorology. In addition, the Rainfall was the most influencing factor for flooding. Finally, the output was displayed in thematic map of Angthong province with flood risk level processed by GIS tools. The map was classified into: High Risk, Moderate Risk and Low Risk (13.20%, 75.58%, and 11.22% of total area).

  5. A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. III: Evaluation using a panel of reference foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory evaluation of four functional components of a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) for crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods in a concordance study. Two independent raters assigned concern levels to 20 reference GM foods using a rating form based on the proposed RBCS. The four components of evaluation were: (1) degree of concordance, (2) distribution across concern levels, (3) discriminating ability of the scheme, and (4) ease of use. At least one of the 20 reference foods was assigned to each of the possible concern levels, demonstrating the ability of the scheme to identify GM foods of different concern with respect to potential health risk. There was reasonably good concordance between the two raters for the three separate parts of the RBCS. The raters agreed that the criteria in the scheme were sufficiently clear in discriminating reference foods into different concern levels, and that with some experience, the scheme was reasonably easy to use. Specific issues and suggestions for improvements identified in the concordance study are discussed.

  6. Evaluation of the cranial base in amnion rupture sequence involving the anterior neural tube: implications regarding recurrence risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Robinson, Luther K; Benirschke, Kurt

    2006-09-01

    Amniotic bands can cause disruption of the cranial end of the developing fetus, leading in some cases to a neural tube closure defect. Although recurrence for unaffected parents of an affected child with a defect in which the neural tube closed normally but was subsequently disrupted by amniotic bands is negligible; for a primary defect in closure of the neural tube to which amnion has subsequently adhered, recurrence risk is 1.7%. In that primary defects of neural tube closure are characterized by typical abnormalities of the base of the skull, evaluation of the cranial base in such fetuses provides an approach for making a distinction between these 2 mechanisms. This distinction has implications regarding recurrence risk. The skull base of 2 fetuses with amnion rupture sequence involving the cranial end of the neural tube were compared to that of 1 fetus with anencephaly as well as that of a structurally normal fetus. The skulls were cleaned, fixed in 10% formalin, recleaned, and then exposed to 10% KOH solution. After washing and recleaning, the skulls were exposed to hydrogen peroxide for bleaching and photography. Despite involvement of the anterior neural tube in both fetuses with amnion rupture sequence, in Case 3 the cranial base was normal while in Case 4 the cranial base was similar to that seen in anencephaly. This technique provides a method for determining the developmental pathogenesis of anterior neural tube defects in cases of amnion rupture sequence. As such, it provides information that can be used to counsel parents of affected children with respect to recurrence risk.

  7. Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems. Volume 2 - Technical

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    1996-01-01

    ... for both structural and nonstructural measures. The unifing theme of these results is that the design and evaluation of structural and nonstructural measures for flood mitigation, including flood warning and preparedness systems, is an integrative...

  8. A risk-based approach for evaluation of hygiene performance at pig slaughter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Anne Mette; Nauta, Maarten; Hald, Tine

    2016-01-01

    and Salmonella was used as basis for developing a quantitative risk assessment model for Salmonella, using the level E. coli as model input. The model output associated the hygiene performance with a relative risk estimate of human salmonellosis. The overall objective was to develop a decision support tool....... The samples were analysed quantitatively for E. coli and semi-quantitatively for Salmonella. A positive association between the number of E. coli on carcasses and the prevalence of Salmonella positive carcasses was shown. For carcasses positive for Salmonella, a positive association was also shown between...... the number of E. coli and the number of Salmonella on the carcass. As no biological association has been reported between faecal shedding of E. coli and presence of Salmonella, the relationship was considered to be associated with the level of faecal contamination. The positive association between E. coli...

  9. Evaluating the Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Based on an Artificial Intelligence Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Hui; Xiong, Shenghua; Ren, Xuan

    2014-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome is worldwide public health problem and is a serious threat to people's health and lives. Understanding the relationship between metabolic syndrome and the physical symptoms is a difficult and challenging task, and few studies have been performed in this field. It is important to classify adults who are at high risk of metabolic syndrome without having to use a biochemical index and, likewise, it is important to develop technology that has a high economic rate of return to s...

  10. Using Tai Chi to Reduce Fall Risk Factors Among Older Adults: An Evaluation of a Community-Based Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallant, Mary P; Tartaglia, Meaghan; Hardman, Susan; Burke, Kara

    2017-04-01

    This study aimed to evaluate a community-based implementation of an evidence-based fall prevention program, in which 131 individuals participated in Tai Chi: Moving for Better Balance. Self-report and functional performance assessments included demographics, health and fall history, the Activities-Specific Balance Scale, the Timed Up and Go test, and the Functional Reach test. Pre-post scores were compared with the Wilcoxon signed rank test. The mostly female participants were 73 years old, on average. At baseline, 18% reported being afraid or very afraid of falling, and 18% had fallen in the past 6 months. At follow-up, there was significant improvement in Timed Up and Go ( p older adults, and can effectively reduce fall risk when implemented in community settings.

  11. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  12. Evaluating Effects of Marine Energy Devices on the Marine Environment - A Risk-Based and In-Water Testing Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harker-Klimes, G.; Copping, A. E.

    2016-02-01

    The portfolio of emerging renewables includes generating power from offshore winds, tides, waves, and ocean currents, as well as seawater temperature and salinity differentials. These new systems are collectively known as marine renewable energy (MRE). MRE development worldwide is in the early stages of design, deployment, and commercialization. A major barrier to bringing these systems into commercial use is the need to overcome uncertainties in environmental effects that slow siting and permitting of devices. Using a risk-based approach, this paper will discuss pathways for evaluating potential effects of tidal turbines and wave energy converters (WECs) on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes. Using basic biological principles and knowledge of specific MRE technologies, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System has been used to narrow pertinent risks from devices, enabling laboratory and field studies to focus on the most important interactions. These interactions, include: potential collisions and behavioral disturbances of marine mammals, fish and other organisms; effects of underwater sound on animal communication and navigation; changes in sediment transport, benthic habitats, and water quality constituents; and effects of electromagnetic fields on animals. It is then necessary to apply these findings to the projects themselves. Another uncertainty is how to measure these key interactions in high-energy locations where MRE deployment is desirable. Consequently, new systems are being developed: instrumentation, innovative platforms for deployment, and new management strategies for collecting and analyzing very large data streams. Inherent in this development pathway is the need to test, deploy, and calibrate these monitoring systems. The Triton initiative is designed to enable this development, and has initiated testing of devices in Washington State to move the MRE industry forward while protecting marine animals, habitats and processes.

  13. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  14. Risk Management and Simulation Based Live Fire Test and Evaluation in the Performance Based Defense Business Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, R

    1999-01-01

    .... The service and acquisition program independent Live Fire Test and Evaluation Community has not fully recognized the changing defense acquisition business environment and modified policy and business...

  15. Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinying Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In project management, risk assessment is crucial for stakeholders to identify the risk factors during the whole life cycle of the project. A risk evaluation index system of a transnational networking project, which provides an effective way for the grid integration of clean electricity and the sustainable development of the power industry, is constructed in this paper. Meanwhile, a combination of granular computing and order relation analysis (G1 method is applied to determine the weight of each indicator and the matter-element extension evaluation model is also employed to seek the global optimal decision during the risk assessment. Finally, a case study is given to validate the index system and evaluation model established in this paper by assessing two different investment schemes of a transnational high voltage direct current (HVDC transmission project. The result shows that the comprehensive risk level of Scheme 1 is “Low” and the level of Scheme 2 is “General”, which means Scheme 1 is better for the stakeholders from the angle of risk control. The main practical significance of this paper lies in that it can provide a reference and decision support for the government’s power sectors, investment companies and other stakeholders when carrying out related activities.

  16. A Web-Based Respondent Driven Sampling Pilot Targeting Young People at Risk for Chlamydia Trachomatis in Social and Sexual Networks with Testing: A Use Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theunissen, Kevin; Hoebe, Christian; Kok, Gerjo; Crutzen, Rik; Kara-Zaïtri, Chakib; de Vries, Nanne; van Bergen, Jan; Hamilton, Robert; van der Sande, Marianne; Dukers-Muijrers, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    With the aim of targeting high-risk hidden heterosexual young people for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) testing, an innovative web-based screening strategy using Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) and home-based CT testing, was developed, piloted and evaluated. Two STI clinic nurses encouraged 37 CT

  17. A Web-Based Respondent Driven Sampling Pilot Targeting Young People at Risk for Chlamydia Trachomatis in Social and Sexual Networks with Testing : A Use Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theunissen, Kevin; Hoebe, Christian; Kok, Gerjo; Crutzen, Rik; Kara-Zaïtri, Chakib; de Vries, Nanne; van Bergen, Jan; Hamilton, Robert; van der Sande, Marianne; Dukers-Muijrers, Nicole

    BACKGROUND: With the aim of targeting high-risk hidden heterosexual young people for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) testing, an innovative web-based screening strategy using Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) and home-based CT testing, was developed, piloted and evaluated. METHODS: Two STI clinic nurses

  18. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  19. Evaluating the effects of community-based organization engagement on HIV and AIDS-related risk behavior in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riehman, Kara S; Kakietek, Jakub; Manteuffel, Brigitte A; Rodriguez-García, Rosalía; Bonnel, Rene; N'Jie, N'Della; Godoy-Garraza, Lucas; Orago, Alloys; Murithi, Patrick; Fruh, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    International donors have increasingly shifted AIDS funding directly to community-based organizations (CBOs) with the assumption that responding to the epidemic is best achieved at the community level. The World Bank, ICF Macro, and the National Council for Population and Development in Kenya, conducted a study to evaluate the community response in Kenya. The study used a quasi-experimental design comparing seven study communities and seven comparison communities in Nyanza Province and Western Province. We examined the impact of CBO activity on individual and community-level outcomes, including HIV knowledge, awareness and perceptions, sexual risk behavior, and social transformation (gender ideology and social capital). The study consisted of two components: a household survey conducted in all 14 communities, and qualitative data collected in a subset of communities. Individuals in communities with higher CBO engagement were significantly more likely to have reported consistent condom use. Higher CBO engagement was associated with some measures of social capital, including participation in local and national elections, and participation in electoral campaigns. CBOs provide added value in addressing the HIV and AIDS epidemic in very targeted and specific ways that are closely tied to the services they provide (e.g., prevention education); thus, increasing CBO engagement can be an effective measure in scaling up prevention efforts in those areas.

  20. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  1. Models of evaluating efficiency and risks on integration of cloud-base IT-services of the machine-building enterprise: a system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razumnikov, S.; Kurmanbay, A.

    2016-04-01

    The present paper suggests a system approach to evaluation of the effectiveness and risks resulted from the integration of cloud-based services in a machine-building enterprise. This approach makes it possible to estimate a set of enterprise IT applications and choose the applications to be migrated to the cloud with regard to specific business requirements, a technological strategy and willingness to risk.

  2. The use of community-based social services by elderly people at risk of institutionalization: An evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bilsen, P.M.A.; Hamers, J.P.H.; Groot, W.; Spreeuwenberg, C.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To examine the use of community-based social services by elderly people at risk of institutionalization, who prefer to remain at home. Methods: A study with a longitudinal design (measurements at two points in time) was conducted. Results: One hundred and thirty-four elderly people (mean

  3. Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

    2009-04-30

    The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

  4. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  5. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  6. A GIS-Based Procedure for Landslide Intensity Evaluation and Specific risk Analysis Supported by Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bianchini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of landslide specific risk, defined as the expected degree of loss due to landslides, requires the parameterization and the combination of a number of socio-economic and geological factors, which often needs the interaction of different skills and expertise (geologists, engineers, planners, administrators, etc.. The specific risk sub-components, i.e., hazard and vulnerability of elements at risk, can be determined with different levels of detail depending on the available auxiliary data and knowledge of the territory. These risk factors are subject to short-term variations and nowadays turn out to be easily mappable and evaluable through remotely sensed data and GIS (Geographic Information System tools. In this work, we propose a qualitative approach at municipal scale for producing a “specific risk” map, supported by recent satellite PSI (Persistent Scatterer Interferometry data derived from SENTINEL-1 C-band images in the spanning time 2014–2017, implemented in a GIS environment. In particular, PSI measurements are useful for the updating of a landslide inventory map of the area of interest and are exploited for the zonation map of the intensity of ground movements, needed for evaluating the vulnerability over the study area. Our procedure is presented throughout the application to the Volterra basin and the output map could be useful to support the local authorities with updated basic information required for environmental knowledge and planning at municipal level. Moreover, the proposed procedure is easily managed and repeatable in other case studies, as well as exploiting different SAR sensors in L- or X-band.

  7. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk-lowering health benefits accruing from laboratory-based, community-based and exercise-referral exercise programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R; Thompson, J E S; Ruffino, J-S; Davies, N A; Watkeys, L; Hooper, S; Jones, P M; Walters, G; Clayton, D; Thomas, A W; Morris, K; Llewellyn, D H; Ward, M; Wyatt-Williams, J; McDonnell, B J

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the ability of community-based exercise programmes to facilitate public participation in exercise and hence improved cardiovascular health, we assessed the respective impacts of: a continuously monitored exercise programme based within our university (study 1); a Valleys Regional Park-facilitated community-based outdoor exercise programme (study 2); a Wales National Exercise Referral Scheme-delivered exercise-referral programme (study 3). Biomolecular (monocytic PPARγ target gene expression), vascular haemodynamic (central/peripheral blood pressure, arterial stiffness), clinical (insulin sensitivity, blood lipids) and anthropometric (body mass index, waist circumference, heart rate) parameters were investigated using RT-PCR, applanation tonometry, chemical analysis and standard anthropometric techniques. In studies 1-3, 22/28, 32/65 and 11/14 participants adhered to their respective exercise programmes, and underwent significant increases in physical activity levels. Importantly, beneficial effects similar to those seen in our previous studies (eg, modulations in expression of monocytic PPARγ target genes, decreases in blood pressure/arterial stiffness, improvements in blood lipids/insulin sensitivity) were observed (albeit to slightly differing extents) only in participants who adhered to their respective exercise programmes. While study 1 achieved more intense exercise and more pronounced beneficial effects, significant cardiovascular risk-lowering health benefits related to biomolecular markers, blood pressure, arterial stiffness and blood lipids were achieved via community/referral-based delivery modes in studies 2 and 3. Because cardiovascular health benefits were observed in all 3 studies, we conclude that the majority of benefits previously reported in laboratory-based studies can also be achieved in community-based/exercise-referral settings. These findings may be of use in guiding policymakers with regard to introduction and/or continued

  8. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  9. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  10. Obesity and liver cancer risk. An evaluation based on a systematic review of epidemiologic evidence among the Japanese population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Keitaro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2012-01-01

    With increased interest in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, its common co-morbid condition, obesity, has recently attracted much attention as a risk factor for liver cancer. Recent studies also suggest that obesity may play a role in the development of liver cancer in alcoholic cirrhosis or viral hepatitis and in the general population. We systematically reviewed epidemiologic studies on overweight/obesity and liver cancer among Japanese populations. Original data were obtained by searching the MEDLINE (PubMed) and Ichushi databases, complemented by manual searches. The evaluation was performed in terms of the magnitude of association in each study and the strength of evidence ('convincing', 'probable', 'possible' or 'insufficient'), together with biologic plausibility. Among nine cohort studies identified, five (four on patients with chronic liver disease and one on local residents) reported a weak to strong positive association, while four (one on patients with hepatitis B and three on local residents) found no association [summary relative risk for one unit increase in body mass index (kg/m 2 ) 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.10]. All three case-control studies identified (two on cirrhotic patients and one on atomic bomb survivors) reported a strong positive association (summary relative risk 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.53). Overall, the summary relative risk was estimated at 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.20), and overweight/obese individuals had a relative risk of 1.74 (95% confidence interval 1.33-2.28) compared with those who had normal/low weight. We conclude that overweight or obesity 'probably' increases the risk of primary liver cancer, to a moderate degree, among the Japanese population. (author)

  11. Groundwater-based water wells characterization from Guinea Bissau (Western Africa): A risk evaluation for the local population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Margherita; Signorelli, Salvatore Santo; Ferlito, Santina Letizia; Grasso, Alfina; Dimartino, Angela; Copat, Chiara

    2018-04-01

    The study conducted in two regions of Guinea Bissau, Oio and Cacheu, focusing on the characterization of the groundwater supplies sampled during the dry season and their associated risks for human health. Twenty samples were collected in wells located nearby pit latrines. In situ analyses were conducted with Semi-quantitative test strips for the determination of turbidity, pH, chloride, carbonate, sulfites, ammonium, nitrite and nitrate. The analysis of metals was performed by an ICP-MS Elan DRC-e and an ICP-OES Optima 8000. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was applied to evaluate the risk of developing chronic systemic effects derived from exposure to metals. Values of concern of turbidity ammonium, and pH values were lower than the normal range for drinking water in most samples. From both regions, Fe and Al were occasionally found with values higher than the international thresholds fixed by the World Health Organization and by the European Commission for drinking water, while, only in one sample from Cacheu region Pb was found significantly above these limits. THQs resulted next to the level of risk (1) for the highest values found of Al, As, Fe and Mn. Of great concern is the resident risk obtained from a well water of Cacheu for the highest value of Pb (96.8μg/L), because the values of the resident risk found of 1 and 0.7 for child and adults respectively. The results obtained highlighted a close correlation between the chemistry of water and sediment and a correlation with the proximity of the water supplies with the latrines. This study evidenced the potential toxicity of the water supplies for the local populations and the risk of developing chronic systemic effects due to some physico-chemical parameters, the importance of functioning water pipeline system, the importance of maintaining adequate distance between latrines and drinking water access. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Applicability of the tissue stem cell turnover concept on the validity of cumulative dose based radiation risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsuka, Kensuke; Hamada, Nobuyuki; Iwasaki, Toshiyasu; Yoshida, Kazuo

    2011-01-01

    The radiation protection system adopts the linear no-threshold model to achieve proper radiation protection for considering cancer risks resulting from radiation exposure. This model uses cumulative dose to a tissue for risk evaluation in which cumulative dose is related to the amount of DNA damage and consequential induction of gene mutation. In this concept, gene mutation accumulates in tissue stem cells, the putative target of carcinogenesis, with total dose given to the tissue. Unlike high-dose-rate exposure, epidemiological studies in high radiation background areas, such as Kerala in India, revealed that cancer risks is not elevated by the dose to the inhabitants, suggesting that there exists some mechanisms to eliminate the damage/mutation in the exposed tissue under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. In this report, the dynamics of tissue stem cell turnover is evaluated as a possible mechanism under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. To this end, we reviewed recent literatures studying tissue stem cell turnover, and found that great advances in stem cell research have made it possible to trace a fate of stem cells in tissues. Furthermore, turnover of tissue stem cells is found to occur after irradiation, due to competition of stem cells within tissues. This raises a possibility that radiation effects may not accumulate in a tissue depending on the dose-rate and duration of exposure period. (author)

  13. Risk-based evaluation of technical specification problems at the La Salle County Nuclear Station: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bizzak, D.J.; Trainer, J.E.; McClymont, A.S.

    1987-06-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods are used to evaluate alternatives to existing requirements for three operationally burdensome technical specifications at La Salle Nuclear Station. The study employs a decision logic to minimize the detailed analysis necessary to show compliance with given acceptance criteria; in this case, no risk increase resulting from a proposed change. The analyses provide insights to choose from among alternative options. The SOCRATES computer code was used for the probabilistic analysis. Results support a change to less frequent diesel generator testing, eliminations of one reactor scram setpoint, and establishing an allowed out-of-service time for valves in a reactor scram system. In each case, the change would result in a safety improvement

  14. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  15. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts’ knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts’ preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n − 1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  16. Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

    2018-04-13

    Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

  17. Soils Project Risk-Based Corrective Action Evaluation Process with ROTC 1 and ROTC 2, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, Patrick; Sloop, Christina

    2012-04-01

    This document formally defines and clarifies the NDEP-approved process the NNSA/NSO Soils Activity uses to fulfill the requirements of the FFACO and state regulations. This process is used to establish FALs in accordance with the risk-based corrective action (RBCA) process stipulated in Chapter 445 of the Nevada Administrative Code (NAC) as described in the ASTM International (ASTM) Method E1739-95 (NAC, 2008; ASTM, 1995). It is designed to provide a set of consistent standards for chemical and radiological corrective actions.

  18. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  19. Presenting risk information to people with diabetes: evaluating effects and preferences for different formats by a web-based randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Adrian; Thomas, Richard; Williams, Rhys; Ellner, Andrew L; Brown, Polly; Elwyn, Glyn

    2006-11-01

    Web-based patient information is widespread and information on the benefits and risks of treatments is often difficult to understand. We therefore evaluated different risk presentation formats - numerical, graphical and others - addressing the pros and cons of tight control versus usual treatment approaches for diabetes. Randomised controlled trial. Online. Publicity disseminated via Diabetes UK. People with diabetes or their carers. Control group information based on British Medical Journal 'Best Treatments'. Four intervention groups received enhanced information resources: (1) detailed numerical information (absolute/relative risk, numbers-needed-to-treat); (2) 'anchoring' to familiar risks or descriptions; (3) graphical (bar charts, thermometer scales, crowd figure formats); (4) combination of 1-3. Decision conflict scale (DCS, a measure of uncertainty); satisfaction with information; further free text responses for qualitative content analysis. Seven hundred and ten people visited the website and were randomised. Five hundred and eight completed the questionnaire for quantitative data. Mean DCS scores ranged from 2.12 to 2.24 for the five randomisation groups, indicating neither clear delay or vacillation about decisions (usually DCS>2.5) nor tending to make decisions (usually DCSOnline evaluation of different risk representation formats was feasible. There was a lack of intervention effects on quantitative outcomes, perhaps reflecting already well-informed participants from the Diabetes UK patient organisation. The large qualitative dataset included many comments about what participants found helpful as formats for communicating risk information. These findings assist the design of online decision aids and the representation of risk information. The challenge is to provide more information, in appropriate and clear formats, but without risking information overload. Interactive web designs hold much promise to achieve this.

  20. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  1. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2018-06-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  2. Method for evaluation of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors based on past reactor experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Cuesta, M.; Okrent, D.

    1985-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for quantification of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors in nuclear power plants, based on information available on errors discovered in the past. For the purposes of this paper, an error is defined as any event that causes the seismic safety margins of a nuclear power plant to be smaller than implied by current regulatory requirements and industry common practice. Also, the actual reduction in the safety margins caused by the error will be called a deficiency. The method is based on a theoretical model of errors, called a deficiency logic diagram. First, an ultimate cause is present. This ultimate cause is consumated as a specific instance, called originating error. As originating errors may occur in actions to be applied a number of times, a deficiency generation system may be involved. Quality assurance activities will hopefully identify most of these deficiencies, requesting their disposition. However, the quality assurance program is not perfect and some operating plant deficiencies may persist, causing different levels of impact to the plant logic. The paper provides a way of extrapolating information about errors discovered in plants under construction in order to assess the risk due to errors that have not been discovered

  3. Risk-based evaluation of allowed outage time and surveillance test interval extensions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibelli, Sonia Maria Orlando

    2008-03-01

    The main goal of this work is, through the use of Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA), to evaluate Technical Specification (TS) Allowed Outage Times (AOT) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STI) extensions for Angra 1 nuclear power plant. PSA has been incorporated as an additional tool, required as part of NPP licensing process. The risk measure used in this work is the Core Damage Frequency (CDF), obtained from the Angra 1 PSA Level 1. AOT and STI extensions are calculated for the Safety Injection System (SIS), Service water System (SAS) and Auxiliary Feedwater System (AFS) through the use of SAPHIRE code. In order to compensate for the risk increase caused by the extensions, compensatory measures as test of redundant train prior to entering maintenance and staggered test strategy are proposed. Results have shown that the proposed AOT extensions are acceptable for the SIS and SAS with the implementation of compensatory measures. The proposed AOT extension is not acceptable for the AFS. The STI extensions are acceptable for all three systems. (author)

  4. Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrion, A S; Beilage, E grosse; Nathues, H; Dürr, S; Doherr, M G

    2014-06-01

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the

  5. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  6. [Spatiotemporal dynamic fuzzy evaluation of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary of Liaoning Province, Northeast China based on remote sensing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yong-Guang; Zhao, Dong-Zhi; Zhang, Feng-Shou; Wei, Bao-Quan; Chu, Jia-Lan; Su, Xiu

    2012-11-01

    Based on the aerial image data of Dayang estuary in 2008, and by virtue of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) , remote sensing technology, and GIS spatial analysis, a spatiotemporal evaluation was made on the comprehensive level of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary, with the impacts of typical human activities on the dynamic variation of this comprehensive level discussed. From 1958 to 2008, the comprehensive level of the environmental pollution risk in study area presented an increasing trend. Spatially, this comprehensive level declined from land to ocean, and showed a zonal distribution. Tourism development activities unlikely led to the increase of the comprehensive level, while human inhabitation, transportation, and aquaculture would exacerbate the risk of environmental pollution. This study could provide reference for the sea area use planning, ecological function planning, and pollutants control of estuary region.

  7. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  8. A risk-based evaluation of the impact of key uncertainties on the prediction of severe accident source terms - STU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M.L.; Grindon, E.; Dutton, L.M.C.; Garcia-Sedano, P.; Santamaria, C.S.; Centner, B.; Auglaire, M.; Routamo, T.; Outa, S.; Jokiniemi, J.; Gustavsson, V.; Wennerstrom, H.; Spanier, L.; Gren, M.; Boschiero, M-H; Droulas, J-L; Friederichs, H-G; Sonnenkalb, M.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this project is to address the key uncertainties associated with a number of fission product release and transport phenomena in a wider context and to assess their relevance to key severe accident sequences. This project is a wide-based analysis involving eight reactor designs that are representative of the reactors currently operating in the European Union (EU). In total, 20 accident sequences covering a wide range of conditions have been chosen to provide the basis for sensitivity studies. The appraisal is achieved through a systematic risk-based framework developed within this project. Specifically, this is a quantitative interpretation of the sensitivity calculations on the basis of 'significance indicators', applied above defined threshold values. These threshold values represent a good surrogate for 'large release', which is defined in a number of EU countries. In addition, the results are placed in the context of in-containment source term limits, for advanced light water reactor designs, as defined by international guidelines. Overall, despite the phenomenological uncertainties, the predicted source terms (both into the containment, and subsequently, into the environment) do not display a high degree of sensitivity to the individual fission product issues addressed in this project. This is due, mainly, to the substantial capacity for the attenuation of airborne fission products by the designed safety provisions and the natural fission product retention mechanisms within the containment

  9. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

    2010-06-01

    A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

  10. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Zobin

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

  11. Recovery actions in PRA [probabilistic risk assessment] for the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP): Volume 1, Development of the data-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weston, L.M.; Whitehead, D.W.; Graves, N.L.

    1987-06-01

    In a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for a nuclear power plant, the analyst identifies a set of potential core damage events consisting of equipment failures and human errors and their estimated probabilities of occurrence. If operator recovery from an event within some specified time is considered, then the probability of this recovery can be included in the PRA. This report provides PRA analysts with an improved methodology for including recovery actions in a PRA. A recovery action can be divided into two distinct phases: a Diagnosis Phase (realizing that there is a problem with a critical parameter and deciding upon the correct course of action) and an Action Phase (physically accomplishing the required action). In this methodology, simulator data are used to estimate recovery probabilities for the diagnosis phase. Different time-reliability curves showing the probability of failure of diagnosis as a function of time from the compelling cue for the event are presented. These curves are based on simulator exercises, and the actions are grouped based upon their operational similarities. This is an improvement over existing diagnosis models that rely greatly upon subjective judgment to obtain such estimates. The action phase is modeled using estimates from available sources. The methodology also includes a recommendation on where and when to apply the recovery action in the PRA process

  12. Combining web-based tools for transparent evaluation of data for risk assessment: developmental effects of bisphenol A on the mammary gland as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molander, Linda; Hanberg, Annika; Rudén, Christina; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Beronius, Anna

    2017-03-01

    Different tools have been developed that facilitate systematic and transparent evaluation and handling of toxicity data in the risk assessment process. The present paper sets out to explore the combined use of two web-based tools for study evaluation and identification of reliable data relevant to health risk assessment. For this purpose, a case study was performed using in vivo toxicity studies investigating low-dose effects of bisphenol A on mammary gland development. The reliability of the mammary gland studies was evaluated using the Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) criteria for toxicity studies. The Health Assessment Workspace Collaborative (HAWC) was used for characterizing and visualizing the mammary gland data in terms of type of effects investigated and reported, and the distribution of these effects within the dose interval. It was then investigated whether there was any relationship between study reliability and the type of effects reported and/or their distribution in the dose interval. The combination of the SciRAP and HAWC tools allowed for transparent evaluation and visualization of the studies investigating developmental effects of BPA on the mammary gland. The use of these tools showed that there were no apparent differences in the type of effects and their distribution in the dose interval between the five studies assessed as most reliable and the whole data set. Combining the SciRAP and HAWC tools was found to be a useful approach for evaluating in vivo toxicity studies and identifying reliable and sensitive information relevant to regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  14. A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  15. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  16. How to provide risk information. Based on citizen's evaluation of messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Kosugi, Motoko; Nakamura, Yasushi; Takahashi, Shigeaki; Harayama, Satoko

    2009-01-01

    The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy in Japan, decided in 2005, requests implementation of risk communication to regain social trust on nuclear industry. Electric power companies, however, have few experiences of providing risk information as the first step of risk communication. This report analyzes which message is understandable, useful and trustworthy, by comparing two sets of different messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant, respectively, based on interview survey for 30 people live in Tokyo metropolitan area. Participants in our survey evaluate the message about radiation protection including risk information is more reliable than one without risk information, but the former is less understandable and more anxious than the latter. In the case of messages regarding seismic measures of nuclear power plant, people are not satisfied with the argument which anti-earthquake measures are implemented, but want to know adequate grounds on which to admit that those measures are thorough. Another message of seismic measures we drafted contains basic knowledge about scales of earthquake, and shows that nuclear industry will consider bigger earthquake than ones in the past records, learn from past experience and improve their measures. 70% of participants assess this message more understandable, useful and trustworthy than the other to explain only seismic measures implemented. (author)

  17. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  18. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  19. Evaluation of a consumer-oriented internet health care report card: the risk of quality ratings based on mortality data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumholz, Harlan M; Rathore, Saif S; Chen, Jersey; Wang, Yongfei; Radford, Martha J

    2002-03-13

    Health care "report cards" have attracted significant consumer interest, particularly publicly available Internet health care quality rating systems. However, the ability of these ratings to discriminate between hospitals is not known. To determine whether hospital ratings for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality from a prominent Internet hospital rating system accurately discriminate between hospitals' performance based on process of care and outcomes. Data from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project, a retrospective systematic medical record review of 141 914 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 65 years or older hospitalized with AMI at 3363 US acute care hospitals during a 4- to 8-month period between January 1994 and February 1996 were compared with ratings obtained from HealthGrades.com (1-star: worse outcomes than predicted, 5-star: better outcomes than predicted) based on 1994-1997 Medicare data. Quality indicators of AMI care, including use of acute reperfusion therapy, aspirin, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors; 30-day mortality. Patients treated at higher-rated hospitals were significantly more likely to receive aspirin (admission: 75.4% 5-star vs 66.4% 1-star, P for trend =.001; discharge: 79.7% 5-star vs 68.0% 1-star, P =.001) and beta-blockers (admission: 54.8% 5-star vs 35.7% 1-star, P =.001; discharge: 63.3% 5-star vs 52.1% 1-star, P =.001), but not angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (59.6% 5-star vs 57.4% 1-star, P =.40). Acute reperfusion therapy rates were highest for patients treated at 2-star hospitals (60.6%) and lowest for 5-star hospitals (53.6% 5-star, P =.008). Risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates were lower for patients treated at higher-rated than lower-rated hospitals (21.9% 1-star vs 15.9% 5-star, P =.001). However, there was marked heterogeneity within rating groups and substantial overlap of individual hospitals across rating strata for mortality and process of care; only 3.1% of comparisons

  20. Expedited CT-Based Methods for Evaluating Fracture Severity to Assess Risk of Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis After Articular Fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Donald D; Kilburg, Anthony T; Thomas, Thaddeus P; Marsh, J Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) is common after intra-articular fractures of the tibial plafond. An objective CT-based measure of fracture severity was previously found to reliably predict whether PTOA developed following surgical treatment of such fractures. However, the extended time required obtaining the fracture energy metric and its reliance upon an intact contralateral limb CT limited its clinical applicability. The objective of this study was to establish an expedited fracture severity metric that provided comparable PTOA predictive ability without the prior limitations. An expedited fracture severity metric was computed from the CT scans of 30 tibial plafond fractures using textural analysis to quantify disorder in CT images. The expedited method utilized an intact surrogate model to enable severity assessment without requiring a contralateral limb CT. Agreement between the expedited fracture severity metric and the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) radiographic OA score at two-year follow-up was assessed using concordance. The ability of the metric to differentiate between patients that did or did not develop PTOA was assessed using the Wilcoxon Ranked Sum test. The expedited severity metric agreed well (75.2% concordance) with the KL scores. The initial fracture severity of cases that developed PTOA differed significantly (p = 0.004) from those that did not. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the expedited severity metric could accurately predict PTOA outcome in 80% of the cases. The time required to obtain the expedited severity metric averaged 14.9 minutes/ case, and the metric was obtained without using an intact contralateral CT. The expedited CT-based methods for fracture severity assessment present a solution to issues limiting the utility of prior methods. In a relatively short amount of time, the expedited methodology provided a severity score capable of predicting PTOA risk, without needing to have the intact contralateral limb

  1. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  2. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R.; Laan, Eva K.; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A.; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-01

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their

  3. Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

    2014-08-15

    Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Performance-based risk-sharing arrangements-good practices for design, implementation, and evaluation: report of the ISPOR good practices for performance-based risk-sharing arrangements task force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, Louis P; Towse, Adrian; Briggs, Andrew; de Pouvourville, Gerard; Grueger, Jens; Mohr, Penny E; Severens, J L Hans; Siviero, Paolo; Sleeper, Miguel

    2013-01-01

    There is a significant and growing interest among both payers and producers of medical products for agreements that involve a "pay-for-performance" or "risk-sharing" element. These payment schemes-called "performance-based risk-sharing arrangements" (PBRSAs)-involve a plan by which the performance of the product is tracked in a defined patient population over a specified period of time and the amount or level of reimbursement is based on the health and cost outcomes achieved. There has always been considerable uncertainty at product launch about the ultimate real-world clinical and economic performance of new products, but this appears to have increased in recent years. PBRSAs represent one mechanism for reducing this uncertainty through greater investment in evidence collection while a technology is used within a health care system. The objective of this Task Force report was to set out the standards that should be applied to "good practices"-both research and operational-in the use of a PBRSA, encompassing questions around the desirability, design, implementation, and evaluation of such an arrangement. This report provides practical recommendations for the development and application of state-of-the-art methods to be used when considering, using, or reviewing PBRSAs. Key findings and recommendations include the following. Additional evidence collection is costly, and there are numerous barriers to establishing viable and cost-effective PBRSAs: negotiation, monitoring, and evaluation costs can be substantial. For good research practice in PBRSAs, it is critical to match the appropriate study and research design to the uncertainties being addressed. Good governance processes are also essential. The information generated as part of PBRSAs has public good aspects, bringing ethical and professional obligations, which need to be considered from a policy perspective. The societal desirability of a particular PBRSA is fundamentally an issue as to whether the cost of

  5. Process evaluation of the implementation of scorecard-based antenatal risk assessment, care pathways and interdisciplinary consultation: the Healthy Pregnancy 4 All study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, A A; van Voorst, S F; Posthumus, A G; Waelput, A J M; Denktaş, S; Steegers, E A P

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate the implementation of a complex intervention in the antenatal healthcare field in 14 Dutch municipalities. The intervention consisted of the implementation of a systematic scorecard-based risk assessment in pregnancy, subsequent patient-tailored care pathways, and consultations of professionals from different medical and social disciplines. Saunders's seven-step method was used for the development of a programme implementation monitoring plan, with specific attention to the setting and context of the programme. Data were triangulated from multiple sources, and prespecified criteria were applied to examine the evidence for implementation. Six out of 11 municipalities (54%) met the implementation criteria for the entire risk assessment programme, whereas three municipalities (27%) met the criteria if the three components of implementation were analysed separately. A process evaluation of implementation of a complex intervention is possible. The results can be used to improve understanding of the associations between specific programme elements and programme outcomes on effectiveness of the intervention. Additionally, the results are important for formative purposes to assess how future implementation of antenatal risk assessment can be improved in comparable contexts. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Evaluation of FOCUS surface water pesticide concentration predictions and risk assessment of field-measured pesticide mixtures-a crop-based approach under Mediterranean conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Ana Santos; Daam, Michiel A; Cerejeira, Maria José

    2017-07-01

    FOCUS models are used in the European regulatory risk assessment (RA) to predict individual pesticide concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters. The scenarios used in higher tier FOCUS simulations were mainly based on Central/North European, and work is needed to underpin the validity of simulated exposure profiles for Mediterranean agroecosystems. In addition, the RA of chemicals are traditionally evaluated on the basis of single substances although freshwater life is generally exposed to a multitude of pesticides. In the present study, we monitored 19 pesticides in surface waters of five locations in the Portuguese 'Lezíria do Tejo' agricultural area. FOCUS step 3 simulations were performed for the South European scenarios to estimate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). We verified that 44% of the PECs underestimated the measured environmental concentrations (MEC) of the pesticides, showing a non-compliance with the field data. Risk was assessed by comparing the environmental quality standards (EQS) and regulatory acceptable concentrations with their respective MECs. Risk of mixtures was demonstrated in 100% of the samples with insecticides accounting for 60% of the total risk identified. The overall link between the RA and the actual situation in the field must be considerably strengthened, and field studies on pesticide exposure and effects should be carried out to assist the improvement of predictive approaches used for regulatory purposes.

  7. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  8. A Computer-Based Network for Writing Process Instruction of At-Risk Community College Students: A Second Year Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balajthy, Ernest

    In its second year of operation (1988-1989 academic year), the Electronic Writing Center (EWC) of the Union County College in Cranford, New Jersey has expanded its capabilities and the amount of service it provides to at-risk students through the Computers in the Curricula Project. Major changes include: (1) increased numbers of classes and…

  9. Evaluation of End-User Satisfaction Among Employees Participating in a Web-based Health Risk Assessment With Tailored Feedback

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Laan, Eva K.; Colkesen, Ersen B.; Niessen, Maurice A. J.; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A.; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

    2012-01-01

    Background: Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice.

  10. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  11. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  12. Evaluation of alternative strategies to MERV 16-based air filtration systems for reduction of the risk of airborne spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, Scott; Pitkin, Andrea; Deen, John

    2009-07-02

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a re-emerging disease of pigs and a growing threat to the global swine industry. For sustainable disease control it is critical to prevent the airborne spread of the etiologic agent, PRRS virus, between pig populations. The application of MERV 16-based air filtration systems to swine facilities in an effort to reduce this risk has been proposed; however, due to the cost and air flow restrictions of such systems the need for alternative strategies has arisen. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate 3 groups of alternative biosecurity strategies for reducing the risk of the airborne spread of PRRSV. Strategies evaluated included mechanical filters, antimicrobial filters and a disinfectant-EVAP (evaporative cooling) system. Results from this study indicate that while alternatives to MERV 16-based biosecurity protocols for protecting farms from the airborne spread of PRRSV are available, further information on their efficacy in the field is needed before conclusions can be drawn.

  13. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  14. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  15. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  16. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  17. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  18. Risk-adjusted capitation based on the Diagnostic Cost Group Model: an empirical evaluation with health survey information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.M. Lamers (Leida)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Diagnostic Cost Group (DCG) model using health survey information. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Longitudinal data collected for a sample of members of a Dutch sickness fund. In the Netherlands the sickness

  19. Modeling approaches for characterizing and evaluating environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials in support of risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Michael; Grieger, Khara D; Money, Eric S; Johnston, John M; Wiesner, Mark R; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2013-02-05

    As the use of engineered nanomaterials becomes more prevalent, the likelihood of unintended exposure to these materials also increases. Given the current scarcity of experimental data regarding fate, transport, and bioavailability, determining potential environmental exposure to these materials requires an in depth analysis of modeling techniques that can be used in both the near- and long-term. Here, we provide a critical review of traditional and emerging exposure modeling approaches to highlight the challenges that scientists and decision-makers face when developing environmental exposure and risk assessments for nanomaterials. We find that accounting for nanospecific properties, overcoming data gaps, realizing model limitations, and handling uncertainty are key to developing informative and reliable environmental exposure and risk assessments for engineered nanomaterials. We find methods suited to recognizing and addressing significant uncertainty to be most appropriate for near-term environmental exposure modeling, given the current state of information and the current insufficiency of established deterministic models to address environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials.

  20. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  1. Effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporosis screening program using FRAX: the randomized Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, K H; Rothmann, M J; Holmberg, T; Høiberg, M; Möller, S; Barkmann, R; Glüer, C C; Hermann, A P; Bech, M; Gram, J; Brixen, K

    2018-03-01

    The Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) study investigated the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. We found no overall reduction in fractures from systematic screening compared to the current case-finding strategy. The group of moderate- to high-risk women, who accepted the invitation to DXA, seemed to benefit from the program. The purpose of the ROSE study was to investigate the effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporosis screening program using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) derived from a self-administered questionnaire to select women for DXA scan. After the scanning, standard osteoporosis management according to Danish national guidelines was followed. Participants were randomized to either screening or control group, and randomization was stratified according to age and area of residence. Inclusion took place from February 2010 to November 2011. Participants received a self-administered questionnaire, and women in the screening group with a FRAX score ≥ 15% (major osteoporotic fractures) were invited to a DXA scan. Primary outcome was incident clinical fractures. Intention-to-treat analysis and two per-protocol analyses were performed. A total of 3416 fractures were observed during a median follow-up of 5 years. No significant differences were found in the intention-to-treat analyses with 34,229 women included aged 65-80 years. The per-protocol analyses showed a risk reduction in the group that underwent DXA scanning compared to women in the control group with a FRAX ≥ 15%, in regard to major osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, and all fractures. The risk reduction was most pronounced for hip fractures (adjusted SHR 0.741, p = 0.007). Compared to an office-based case-finding strategy, the two-step systematic screening strategy had no overall effect on fracture incidence. The two-step strategy seemed, however, to be beneficial in the group of women who were

  2. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  3. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  4. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  5. Evaluation of a developmental hierarchy for breast cancer cells to assess risk-based patient selection for targeted treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliss, Sarah A; Paul, Sunirmal; Pobiarzyn, Piotr W; Ayer, Seda; Sinha, Garima; Pant, Saumya; Hilton, Holly; Sharma, Neha; Cunha, Maria F; Engelberth, Daniel J; Greco, Steven J; Bryan, Margarette; Kucia, Magdalena J; Kakar, Sham S; Ratajczak, Mariusz Z; Rameshwar, Pranela

    2018-01-10

    This study proposes that a novel developmental hierarchy of breast cancer (BC) cells (BCCs) could predict treatment response and outcome. The continued challenge to treat BC requires stratification of BCCs into distinct subsets. This would provide insights on how BCCs evade treatment and adapt dormancy for decades. We selected three subsets, based on the relative expression of octamer-binding transcription factor 4 A (Oct4A) and then analysed each with Affymetrix gene chip. Oct4A is a stem cell gene and would separate subsets based on maturation. Data analyses and gene validation identified three membrane proteins, TMEM98, GPR64 and FAT4. BCCs from cell lines and blood from BC patients were analysed for these three membrane proteins by flow cytometry, along with known markers of cancer stem cells (CSCs), CD44, CD24 and Oct4, aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) activity and telomere length. A novel working hierarchy of BCCs was established with the most immature subset as CSCs. This group was further subdivided into long- and short-term CSCs. Analyses of 20 post-treatment blood indicated that circulating CSCs and early BC progenitors may be associated with recurrence or early death. These results suggest that the novel hierarchy may predict treatment response and prognosis.

  6. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  7. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  8. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  9. Ecological risk assessment on a cadmium contaminated soil landfill-a preliminary evaluation based on toxicity tests on local species and site-specific information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, C.-M.; Liu, M.-C.

    2006-01-01

    In recent years, methodology of ecological risk assessment has been developed and applied frequently for addressing various circumstances where ecological impacts are suspected or have occurred due to environmental contamination; however, its practice is very limited in Taiwan. In 1982, brown rice from rice paddy fields in Da-Tan, Tau-Yuan, was found to be contaminated with Cd and Pb due to illegal discharges of wastewater, known as the 'Cd rice' incidence. Cadmium laden soil was transferred to a constructed landfill in an industrial park 15 years after the incident. Possible leakage of the landfill was suspected by committee members of a supervising board for the remediation process, and a preliminary ecological risk evaluation was requested. A possible risk scenario was that groundwater contamination due to the leachate containing Cd and Pb from the landfill could result in pollution of coastal water, and subsequently produce toxic effects to aquatic organisms. Chemical dissipation in groundwater systems was simulated and short-term chronic toxicity tests on larvae of three local aquatic species were also performed to determine the no-observed adverse-effect concentrations (NOAECs), as well as the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs), of the two metals in the organisms tested. The hazard quotient (HQ), the ratio of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) to PNECs, was used for risk characterization. A worst-case-scenario calculation showed that the maximum Cd concentration at 60 m and farther downstream from the site in the groundwater system would be 0.0028 mg l -1 with a maximum initial concentration of 0.65 mg l -1 in the leachate, while for Pb, the highest concentration of 0.044 mg l -1 would be reached at a distance of 40 m and farther, which was based on an initial concentration of 4.4 mg l -1 in the leachate; however, both cases would only occur 80 years after the initiation of leakage. A presumed dilution factor of 100 was used to calculate

  10. Cardiovascular risk outcome and program evaluation of a cluster randomised controlled trial of a community-based, lay peer led program for people with diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Riddell

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study demonstrated the increasing burden of diabetes and the challenge it poses to the health systems of all countries. The chronic and complex nature of diabetes requires active self-management by patients in addition to clinical management in order to achieve optimal glycaemic control and appropriate use of available clinical services. This study is an evaluation of a “real world” peer support program aimed at improving the control and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM in Australia. Methods The trial used a randomised cluster design with a peer support intervention and routine care control arms and 12-month follow up. Participants in both arms received a standardised session of self-management education at baseline. The intervention program comprised monthly community-based group meetings over 12 months led by trained peer supporters and active encouragement to use primary health care and other community resources and supports related to diabetes. Clinical, behavioural and other measures were collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome was the predicted 5 year cardiovascular disease risk using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS Risk Equation at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included clinical measures, quality of life, measures of support, psychosocial functioning and lifestyle measures. Results Eleven of 12 planned groups were successfully implemented in the intervention arm. Both the usual care and the intervention arms demonstrated a small reduction in 5 year UKPDS risk and the mean values for biochemical and anthropometric outcomes were close to target at 12 months. There were some small positive changes in self-management behaviours. Conclusions The positive changes in self-management behaviours among intervention participants were not sufficient to reduce cardiovascular risk, possibly because approximately half of the study participants

  11. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    OpenAIRE

    Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

    2010-01-01

    A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure...

  12. Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method The Investment Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises in The Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanyu; Chai, Huaqi; Huang, Yimiao

    2018-01-01

    “Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” held in Beijing in May this year. once again, “The Belt and Road” strategic initiative to the world, causing the world’s enthusiastic response. The core of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy initiative is to promote infrastructure construction and interconnection, dock national policies and development strategies, deepen pragmatic cooperation, promote coordinated and coordinated development and achieve common prosperity. With the “The Belt and Road” strategy in-depth, Chinese enterprises will go abroad, in the countries along the country to invest in more and more examples, accompanied by the increasing risk. Analysis of the failure of investment cases, we can easily find that this is the majority of enterprises overseas investment in the lack of careful assessment of risk and risk of foreign investment risk management has a great relationship. In this paper, the risk factors are used to identify the risk factors table, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the comprehensive risk value of many uncertain factors that cannot be determined by the overseas investment. The risk assessment system is constructed to help Chinese enterprises to follow the " Investment to avoid risks, improve the success rate.

  13. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  14. Risk evaluation of the Arctic environmental POP exposure based on critical body residue and critical daily dose using captive Greenland sledge dogs (Canis familiaris) as surrogate species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Christian; Gustavson, Kim; Eulaers, Igor

    2016-01-01

    The risk from POP (persistent organic pollutant) exposure and subsequent reproductive, immunotoxic and liver histopathological effects was evaluated in a classical parallel trial on Greenland sledge dogs (Canis familiaris) fed contaminated minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) blubber. First...... quotients (RQDD: DD/CDD; RQBR: BR/CBR; ≥1 indicates risk). The results showed that risk quotients for reproductive, immunotoxic and liver histopathological effects were significantly lowest in the control group (p... on body residues (RQBR) (all preproductive and immunotoxic effects while those for liver histopathological effects ranged from 0.7-3.0. PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) and chlordanes were the dominant driver behind high immune and reproductive RQs...

  15. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  16. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  17. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  18. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  19. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  20. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  1. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  2. Evaluation of an atlas-based automatic segmentation software for the delineation of brain organs at risk in a radiation therapy clinical context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isambert, Aurelie; Dhermain, Frederic; Bidault, Francois; Commowick, Olivier; Bondiau, Pierre-Yves; Malandain, Gregoire; Lefkopoulos, Dimitri

    2008-01-01

    Background and purpose: Conformal radiation therapy techniques require the delineation of volumes of interest, a time-consuming and operator-dependent task. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the potential interest of an atlas-based automatic segmentation software (ABAS) of brain organs at risk (OAR), when used under our clinical conditions. Materials and methods: Automatic and manual segmentations of the eyes, optic nerves, optic chiasm, pituitary gland, brain stem and cerebellum of 11 patients on T1-weighted magnetic resonance, 3-mm thick slice images were compared using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). The sensitivity and specificity of the ABAS were also computed and analysed from a radiotherapy point of view by splitting the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) space into four sub-regions. Results: Automatic segmentation of OAR was achieved in 7-8 min. Excellent agreement was obtained between automatic and manual delineations for organs exceeding 7 cm 3 : the DSC was greater than 0.8. For smaller structures, the DSC was lower than 0.41. Conclusions: These tests demonstrated that this ABAS is a robust and reliable tool for automatic delineation of large structures under clinical conditions in our daily practice, even though the small structures must continue to be delineated manually by an expert

  3. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  4. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  5. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  6. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  7. A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon

    2012-01-01

    Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...

  8. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  9. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  10. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in

  11. Evaluation of the Risk of Grade 3 Oral and Pharyngeal Dysphagia Using Atlas-Based Method and Multivariate Analyses of Individual Patient Dose Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otter, Sophie [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); Schick, Ulrike; Gulliford, Sarah [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); The Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Lal, Punita [Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow India (India); Franceschini, Davide [Department of Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery, Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan (Italy); Newbold, Katie; Nutting, Christopher; Harrington, Kevin [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); The Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Bhide, Shreerang, E-mail: shreerang.bhide@icr.ac.uk [Department of Clinical Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital, Sutton and London (United Kingdom); The Institute of Cancer Research, London (United Kingdom); Department of Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery, Humanitas Research Hospital, Milan (Italy)

    2015-11-01

    Purpose: The study aimed to apply the atlas of complication incidence (ACI) method to patients receiving radical treatment for head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC), to generate constraints based on dose-volume histograms (DVHs), and to identify clinical and dosimetric parameters that predict the risk of grade 3 oral mucositis (g3OM) and pharyngeal dysphagia (g3PD). Methods and Materials: Oral and pharyngeal mucosal DVHs were generated for 253 patients who received radiation (RT) or chemoradiation (CRT). They were used to produce ACI for g3OM and g3PD. Multivariate analysis (MVA) of the effect of dosimetry, clinical, and patient-related variables was performed using logistic regression and bootstrapping. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was also performed, and the Youden index was used to find volume constraints that discriminated between volumes that predicted for toxicity. Results: We derived statistically significant dose-volume constraints for g3OM over the range v28 to v70. Only 3 statistically significant constraints were derived for g3PD v67, v68, and v69. On MVA, mean dose to the oral mucosa predicted for g3OM and concomitant chemotherapy and mean dose to the inferior constrictor (IC) predicted for g3PD. Conclusions: We have used the ACI method to evaluate incidences of g3OM and g3PD and ROC analysis to generate constraints to predict g3OM and g3PD derived from entire individual patient DVHs. On MVA, the strongest predictors were radiation dose (for g3OM) and concomitant chemotherapy (for g3PD).

  12. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  13. Addressing adolescents’ risk and protective factors related to risky behaviours: Findings from a school-based peer-education evaluation in the Western Cape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Furzana Timol

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Peer-education programmes aim to bring about attitudinal and behavioural changes in their target audience. In the South African educational context, peer education is a favoured approach in dealing with issues such as HIV and AIDS, sexual decision-making and substance misuse. Given the reliance on peer-education programmes in the educational system, it is important to establish how well they are working. This study aims to assess the effect of an extensive, structured, time-limited, curriculum-based, peer-led educational programme on first-year high school learners in public schools in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Method: The curriculum called ‘Listen Up’ addresses issues such as supporting peers, sexual decision-making, healthy relationships, HIV risk, alcohol misuse and unwanted pregnancy in seven structured sessions. The programme targeted adolescents in Grade 8 growing up in what are considered to be risky environments in public schools in the Western Cape during 2012 and 2013. The intervention was evaluated based on 10 scales sourced from published literature related to the outcome indicators of future orientation, sensation-seeking, self-efficacy in sexual relations, HIV transmission knowledge, HIV prevention knowledge, HIV attitudes, sexual attitudes, decision-making, healthy relationships and social support. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse demographic and community characteristics and analyses of variance were used to detect differences between groups. The surveys were administered to a total of 7709 learners across three waves of the study in 27 peer intervention schools and eight control schools. Results: Immediately post intervention, statistically significant differences were noted for the intervention schools when compared to their baseline levels on measures of future orientation, self-efficacy in sexual relations, knowledge regarding HIV transmission, knowledge regarding HIV prevention and

  14. Addressing adolescents' risk and protective factors related to risky behaviours: Findings from a school-based peer-education evaluation in the Western Cape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timol, Furzana; Vawda, Mohammed Yacoob; Bhana, Arvin; Moolman, Benita; Makoae, Mokhantso; Swartz, Sharlene

    2016-12-01

    Peer-education programmes aim to bring about attitudinal and behavioural changes in their target audience. In the South African educational context, peer education is a favoured approach in dealing with issues such as HIV and AIDS, sexual decision-making and substance misuse. Given the reliance on peer-education programmes in the educational system, it is important to establish how well they are working. This study aims to assess the effect of an extensive, structured, time-limited, curriculum-based, peer-led educational programme on first-year high school learners in public schools in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The curriculum called 'Listen Up' addresses issues such as supporting peers, sexual decision-making, healthy relationships, HIV risk, alcohol misuse and unwanted pregnancy in seven structured sessions. The programme targeted adolescents in Grade 8 growing up in what are considered to be risky environments in public schools in the Western Cape during 2012 and 2013. The intervention was evaluated based on 10 scales sourced from published literature related to the outcome indicators of future orientation, sensation-seeking, self-efficacy in sexual relations, HIV transmission knowledge, HIV prevention knowledge, HIV attitudes, sexual attitudes, decision-making, healthy relationships and social support. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse demographic and community characteristics and analyses of variance were used to detect differences between groups. The surveys were administered to a total of 7709 learners across three waves of the study in 27 peer intervention schools and eight control schools. Immediately post intervention, statistically significant differences were noted for the intervention schools when compared to their baseline levels on measures of future orientation, self-efficacy in sexual relations, knowledge regarding HIV transmission, knowledge regarding HIV prevention and knowledge in terms of healthy relationships

  15. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  16. 99mTc MDP SPECT-CT-Based Modified Mirels Classification for Evaluation of Risk of Fracture in Skeletal Metastasis: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riaz, Saima; Bashir, Humayun; Niazi, Imran Khalid; Butt, Sumera; Qamar, Faisal

    2018-06-01

    Mirels' scoring system quantifies the risk of sustaining a pathologic fracture in osseous metastases of weight bearing long bones. Conventional Mirels' scoring is based on radiographs. Our pilot study proposes Tc MDP bone SPECT-CT based modified Mirels' scoring system and its comparison with conventional Mirels' scoring. Cortical lysis was noted in 8(24%) by SPECT-CT versus 2 (6.3%) on X-rays. Additional SPECT-CT parameters were; circumferential involvement [1/4 (31%), 1/2 (3%), 3/4 (37.5%), 4/4 (28%)] and extra-osseous soft tissue [3%]. Our pilot study suggests the potential role of SPECT-CT in predicting risk of fracture in osseous metastases.

  17. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  18. AN ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AN ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM OF ECOLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR EVALUATING FUNCTIONS OF ECOSYSTEM-BASED SOLUTIONS FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (ECO-DRR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Doko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available “Ecological Infrastructure (EI” are defined as naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as healthy mountain catchments, rivers, wetlands, coastal dunes, and nodes and corridors of natural habitat, which together form a network of interconnected structural elements in the landscape. On the other hand, natural disaster occur at the locations where habitat was reduced due to the changes of land use, in which the land was converted to the settlements and agricultural cropland. Hence, habitat loss and natural disaster are linked closely. Ecological infrastructure is the nature-based equivalent of built or hard infrastructure, and is as important for providing services and underpinning socio-economic development. Hence, ecological infrastructure is expected to contribute to functioning as ecological disaster reduction, which is termed Ecosystem-based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR. Although ecological infrastructure already exists in the landscape, it might be degraded, needs to be maintained and managed, and in some cases restored. Maintenance and restoration of ecological infrastructure is important for security of human lives. Therefore, analytical tool and effective visualization tool in spatially explicit way for the past natural disaster and future prediction of natural disaster in relation to ecological infrastructure is considered helpful. Hence, Web-GIS based Ecological Infrastructure Environmental Information System (EI-EIS has been developed. This paper aims to describe the procedure of development and future application of EI-EIS. The purpose of the EI-EIS is to evaluate functions of Eco-DRR. In order to analyse disaster data, collection of past disaster information, and disaster-prone area is effective. First, a number of digital maps and analogue maps in Japan and Europe were collected. In total, 18,572 maps over 100 years were collected. The Japanese data includes Future

  19. An Attempt to Develop AN Environmental Information System of Ecological Infrastructure for Evaluating Functions of Ecosystem-Based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction Eco-Drr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doko, T.; Chen, W.; Sasaki, K.; Furutani, T.

    2016-06-01

    "Ecological Infrastructure (EI)" are defined as naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as healthy mountain catchments, rivers, wetlands, coastal dunes, and nodes and corridors of natural habitat, which together form a network of interconnected structural elements in the landscape. On the other hand, natural disaster occur at the locations where habitat was reduced due to the changes of land use, in which the land was converted to the settlements and agricultural cropland. Hence, habitat loss and natural disaster are linked closely. Ecological infrastructure is the nature-based equivalent of built or hard infrastructure, and is as important for providing services and underpinning socio-economic development. Hence, ecological infrastructure is expected to contribute to functioning as ecological disaster reduction, which is termed Ecosystem-based Solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). Although ecological infrastructure already exists in the landscape, it might be degraded, needs to be maintained and managed, and in some cases restored. Maintenance and restoration of ecological infrastructure is important for security of human lives. Therefore, analytical tool and effective visualization tool in spatially explicit way for the past natural disaster and future prediction of natural disaster in relation to ecological infrastructure is considered helpful. Hence, Web-GIS based Ecological Infrastructure Environmental Information System (EI-EIS) has been developed. This paper aims to describe the procedure of development and future application of EI-EIS. The purpose of the EI-EIS is to evaluate functions of Eco-DRR. In order to analyse disaster data, collection of past disaster information, and disaster-prone area is effective. First, a number of digital maps and analogue maps in Japan and Europe were collected. In total, 18,572 maps over 100 years were collected. The Japanese data includes Future-Pop Data Series (1,736 maps

  20. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  1. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  3. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  4. Evaluation of Refuge Life Risk using Geographical and Social Grid-Models with Satellite-Based House Ratio and Flood Depth by Tsunami Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.; Hosoyamada, T.

    2017-12-01

    The authors have developed social and geographical models for evaluating and applying life risk to the Kamakura coast near the south-western part of the metropolitan areas of Tokyo. The coastline close to the seismic center of the South Kanto earthquake is in the riskiest belt in the metropolitan area with a high possibility of house collapse and tsunami run-up. Kamakura is an important historical city, visited by many tourists who are not familiar with seismic dangers. There is a high probability of loss of human life during an evacuation of the city during tsunami waves. To evaluate the distribution of life risk characteristics in the area, models for citizens and sightseers are developed that includes social data such as population density, wooden-house ratio, and geographical evacuation distance and tsunami-flooding depth. The population of Kamakura City is 174,050 and the risk of tsunami evacuation is high in the area from the southern part of Kamakura Station to Zaimokuza block, where the population is approximately 15,310 people. There are about 26,000 tourists visiting this area on weekdays and about 100,000 sightseers visiting the area on Saturdays and Sundays. On weekdays the population per mesh will increase by half of the 2,000 inhabitants. On Saturdays and Sundays the population density will be 4 thousand who will double those of the inhabitants. A disaster prevention hill is proposed as a tsunami countermeasure on the coast of Kamakura City. The hill is covered by pine forest with a high-standard road, evacuation center, and sightseeing parking lots embedded in the hilly bank. In normal times, tourists and citizens use this area as a seaside pine park. Long concrete box structures strengthen the hill inside the mound, which has two levels, the lower equipped with high-standard-width roads on the ground level. The parking areas will resolve daily traffic congestion issues along the Kamakura main streets. The evaluation of over-flooding tsunamis and

  5. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  6. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  7. Concentration and health risk evaluation of heavy metals in market-sold vegetables and fishes based on questionnaires in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yanyan; Nie, Zhiqiang; Liu, Feng; Die, Qingqi; He, Jie; Huang, Qifei

    2014-10-01

    Concentrations of heavy metals (As, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Fe, Mn, and Zn) in market vegetables and fishes in Beijing, China, are investigated, and their health risk to local consumers is evaluated by calculating the target hazard quotient (THQ). The heavy metal concentrations in vegetables and fishes ranged from not detectable (ND) to 0.21 mg/kg fresh weight (f.w.) (As), ND to 0.10 mg/kg f.w. (Cd), and n.d to 0.57 mg/kg f.w. (Pb), with average concentrations of 0.17, 0.04, and 0.24 mg/kg f.w., respectively. The measured concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Fe, Mn, and Zn are generally lower than the safety limits given by the Chinese regulation safety and quality standards of agriculture products (GB2762-2012). As, Cd, and Pb contaminations are found in vegetables and fishes. The exceeding standard rates are 19 % for As, 3 % for Cd, and 25 % for Pb. Pb contaminations are found quite focused on the fish samples from traditional agri-product markets. The paper further analyzed the health risk of heavy metals in vegetables and fishes respectively from supermarkets and traditional agri-product markets; the results showed that the fishes of traditional agri-product markets have higher health risk, while the supermarkets have vegetables of higher heavy metal risk, and the supervision should be strengthened in the fish supply channels in traditional agri-product markets.

  8. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  9. Theory-Based Stakeholder Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Morten Balle; Vedung, Evert

    2010-01-01

    This article introduces a new approach to program theory evaluation called theory-based stakeholder evaluation or the TSE model for short. Most theory-based approaches are program theory driven and some are stakeholder oriented as well. Practically, all of the latter fuse the program perceptions of the various stakeholder groups into one unitary…

  10. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  11. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

  12. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Restless Legs Syndrome in Women and Men: A Preliminary Population-Based Study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Liu, Gangqiong; Li, Ling; Yang, Jing; Ma, Shengli

    2018-03-15

    Many studies have investigated the association between restless legs syndrome (RLS) and cardiovascular risk factors, leading to conflicting results. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to determine whether RLS is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. This cross-sectional study included 5,324 consecutive subjects who visited the Physical Examination Center of The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University for their yearly routine physical examination. Participants underwent a face-to-face interview with a neurologist for the assessment of RLS, based on the International Restless Legs Study Group criteria. They also completed a questionnaire related to cardiovascular risk factors and other health-related and demographic information. Logistic regression was used to assess which of the demographic and cardiovascular risk factors increased the odds of RLS. Then, unadjusted and adjusted models were designed to determine whether RLS was associated with increased odds of cardiovascular disease, coronary artery disease, or hypertension. RLS was observed in 9.2% of the participants. Multivariable logistic regression models, which included the covariates age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, hypercholesterolemia, and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score (dichotomized at 5), demonstrated that female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 2.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.99-2.95), smoking (OR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.31-2.92), high cholesterol (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.03-1.64), and PSQI score > 5 (OR: 5.61, 95% CI: 2.14-14.69) are significantly associated with RLS. Additionally, RLS was associated with hypertension, after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score > 5, diabetes, anemia, and decreased renal function. RLS is associated with the prevalence of hypertension but not with that of cardiovascular disease or coronary artery disease. © 2018 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

  13. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  14. Revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Updating requirements based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Accidents (3). Fragility evaluation and outline of the updated points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Akira; Nakamura, Susumu; Mihara, Yoshinori

    2014-01-01

    Lessons learned from Great East Japan earthquake and other new findings had been accumulated on the fragility evaluation of buildings and components. And also new analysis and evaluation method had been proposed with the advancement of recent analysis and evaluation technology. These were reflected in revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Scope of the fragility evaluation were extended to all equipment on the site, severe accident management equipment including portable equipment and earthquake concomitant incident (such as tsunami) countermeasure equipment. This article described outlines of updating points of the fragility evaluation of the AESJ Standard for Seismic PRA; (1) requirements for seismic induced other risk evaluations such as fire, inundation and tsunami, (2) simulation technology based on recent findings such as three dimensional responses of buildings / structures and its effect on equipment, (3) requirements of the fragility evaluation for various failure mode of several equipment such as severe accident management equipment, fine failure mode of buildings / structures, failures of equipment related with earthquake concomitant incidents (embankment and seawall) and spent fuel pool, and (4) requirements for the fragility evaluation of aftershocks and soil deformation due to fault displacement. (T. Tanaka)

  15. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Nutritional Education based on Health Belief Model on Self-Esteem and BMI of Overweight and at Risk of Overweight Adolescent Girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leili Rabiei

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Due to significant increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adolescents in developed countries, much attention has been focused on this issue. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of nutritional education based on Health Belief Model (HBM on self-esteem and body mass index (BMI of overweight and at risk of overweight adolescent girls. Materials and Methods: The study subjects consist of 140 female students recruited from two high schools, who were randomly allocated to the intervention (n=70 and control (n=70 groups. The data collection instrument included sections on socio-demographic status, transportation method, physical status, and knowledge and attitudes of the students towards nutrition, which was designed according to HBM. As the intervention, model-based educational program was implemented through six 60-minute sessions, focusing on the overweight and at-risk students. Results were compared in the beginning, and three months after the intervention to find the possible impacts. Results: Average score of model structures and self-esteem of students in both groups had no significant difference at baseline, but immediately after the intervention and 3 months after treatment, the mean component scores were significantly higher in intervention group than controls (P

  16. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  17. Energy-Based Seismic Risk Evaluation of Tall Reinforced Concrete Building in Vancouver, BC, Canada, under Mw9 Megathrust Subduction Earthquakes and Aftershocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon Tesfamariam

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a seismic performance evaluation framework for reinforced concrete (RC buildings, comprising shear walls and gravity frames. The evaluation is undertaken within a performance-based earthquake engineering framework by considering regional seismicity and site-specific ground motion selection. Different engineering demand parameters (EDPs, i.e., maximum interstory drift ratio (MaxISDR and energy-based damage index, are considered as performance indicators. Various prediction models of EDPs are developed by considering four ground motion intensity measures (IMs, i.e., spectral acceleration at the fundamental period, Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity (CAV, and significant duration of ground motion. For this study, a 15-story RC building, located in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is considered as a case study. By using 50 mainshock and 50 mainshock–aftershock (MS-AS earthquake records (2 horizontal components per record and bidirectional loading, non-linear dynamic analyses are performed. Subsequently, the calculated MaxISDRs and damage indices are correlated with suitable IMs using cloud analysis, and the most efficient IM-EDP prediction models are selected by comparing standard deviations (SDs of the regression errors. The MaxISDR of the shear walls is less than 1% for the mainshock and MS-AS records. The energy-based damage index shows sensitivity to delineate impact of earthquake types and aftershocks. The CAV is showed to be the most efficient IM for the energy-based damage index.

  18. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  19. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  20. Evaluation of different radon guideline values based on characterization of ecological risk and visualization of lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branion-Calles, Michael C; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Henderson, Sarah B

    2015-11-19

    There is no safe concentration of radon gas, but guideline values provide threshold concentrations that are used to map areas at higher risk. These values vary between different regions, countries, and organizations, which can lead to differential classification of risk. For example the World Health Organization suggests a 100 Bq m(-3)value, while Health Canada recommends 200 Bq m(-3). Our objective was to describe how different thresholds characterized ecological radon risk and their visual association with lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada. Eight threshold values between 50 and 600 Bq m(-3) were identified, and classes of radon vulnerability were defined based on whether the observed 95(th) percentile radon concentration was above or below each value. A balanced random forest algorithm was used to model vulnerability, and the results were mapped. We compared high vulnerability areas, their estimated populations, and differences in lung cancer mortality trends stratified by smoking prevalence and sex. Classification accuracy improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. Majority of the population lived within areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m(-3) were associated with higher lung cancer mortality, even in areas with low smoking prevalence. Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality were increasing for women, while decreasing for men. Radon contributes to lung cancer in British Columbia. The results of the study contribute evidence supporting the use of a reference level lower than the current guideline of 200 Bq m(-3) for the province.

  1. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  2. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  3. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  4. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  5. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  6. Postoperative Chemoradiation Therapy in High-Risk Cervical Cancer: Re-evaluating the Findings of Gynecologic Oncology Group Study 109 in a Large, Population-Based Cohort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trifiletti, Daniel M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia (United States); Swisher-McClure, Samuel [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Showalter, Timothy N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia (United States); Hegarty, Sarah E. [Division of Biostatistics, Department of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Grover, Surbhi, E-mail: Surbhi.grover@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Purpose: To review the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to evaluate postoperative high-risk cervical cancer patients for factors associated with a benefit from chemoradiation therapy (CRT) over external beam radiation therapy alone (EBRT). Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Database was queried for women with cervical cancer treated with hysterectomy and adjuvant EBRT from 2002 to 2012. Only patients with pathologic lymph node involvement (LN+), positive surgical margins, and/or parametrial invasion were included in our analysis (on the basis of Peter's criteria). Univariable and multivariable analyses (MVA) were performed, and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to investigate for factors associated with of CRT utilization and overall survival (OS). Results: A total of 3053 patients met inclusion criteria, and 2479 received adjuvant CRT (81%), whereas 574 (19%) received EBRT alone. Factors associated with increased CRT utilization on MVA included age <69 years, year of diagnosis ≥2008, non-adenocarcinoma histology, and LN+. Use of CRT improved OS among the entire cohort on MVA (HR 0.76, CI 0.601-0.962; P=.022). On MVA, CRT improved OS in patients with LN+ as their sole Peter's criteria (HR 0.58, CI 0.413-0.814; P=.002). Chemoradiation therapy did not improve OS in patients with only positive margins (P=.73), only parametrial invasion (P=.95), or any combination of these 2 factors without LN+ (P=.63). Conclusions: The use of adjuvant CRT after hysterectomy improves OS in patients with high-risk cervical cancer compared with EBRT alone, but this benefit seems to be restricted to patients with LN+. The benefits of adjuvant CRT over EBRT alone in patients with parametrial invasion and/or positive margins (without nodal involvement) are unknown.

  7. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  8. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  9. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

  10. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

  11. Risk assessment using Analytical Hierarchy Process - Development and evaluation of a new computer-based tool; Riskvaerdering med Analytical Hierarchy Process - Utveckling och utprovning av ett nytt datorbaserat verktyg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritchey, Tom (Swedish Defence Research Agency, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-11-15

    Risk analysis concerning the management of contaminated areas involves comparing and evaluating the relationship between ecological, technical, economic and other factors, in order to determine a reasonable level of remediation. Risk analysis of this kind is a relatively new phenomenon. In order to develop methodology in this area, the Sustainable Remediation program contributes both to comprehensive risk analysis projects and to projects concentrating on specific aspects of remediation risk analysis. In the project described in this report, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) was given a grant by the Sustainable Remediation program to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to develop a computer-aided instrument to support remediation risk analysis. AHP is one of several so-called multi-criteria decision support methods. These methods are applied in order to systematically compare and evaluate different solutions or measures, when there are many different goal criteria involved. Such criteria can be both quantitative and qualitative. The project has resulted in the development of a computer-aided instrument which can be employed to give a better structure, consistency and traceability to risk analyses for the remediation of contaminated areas. Project was carried out in two phases with two different working groups. The first phase involved the development of a generic base-model for remediation risk analysis. This was performed by a 'development group'. The second phase entailed the testing of the generic model in a specific, on-going remediation project. This was performed by a 'test group'. The remediation project in question concerned the decontamination of a closed-down sawmill in Vaeckelsaang, in the Swedish municipality of Tingsryd

  12. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  13. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  14. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  15. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  16. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  17. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  18. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  19. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  20. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  2. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  3. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  5. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  6. Evaluation of a School-Based Train-the-Trainer Intervention Program to Teach First Aid and Risk Reduction among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carruth, Ann K.; Pryor, Susan; Cormier, Cathy; Bateman, Aaron; Matzke, Brenda; Gilmore, Karen

    2010-01-01

    Background: Farming is a hazardous occupation posing health risks from agricultural exposures for the farm owner and family members. First Aid for Rural Medical Emergencies (F.A.R.M.E.) was developed to support a train-the-trainer (TTT) program to prepare high school students to teach first aid skills and risk reduction through peer interaction.…

  7. Benefits of Risk Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Straub, D.M.; Goyet, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2006-01-01

    The economical benefits of applying risk-based inspection planning (RBI) for offshore structures subject to fatigue are evaluated based on experiences from past industrial projects. To this end, the factors influencing the cost of inspection, repair and failure of structures are discussed......, the financial benefit of RBI is assessed....

  8. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  9. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  10. MTA Computer Based Evaluation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Lisa P.; And Others

    The MTA PLATO-based evaluation system, which has been implemented by a consortium of schools of medical technology, is designed to be general-purpose, modular, data-driven, and interactive, and to accommodate other national and local item banks. The system provides a comprehensive interactive item-banking system in conjunction with online student…

  11. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  12. Evaluation of risk factors associated with congenital malformations in the surveillance program of birth defects based on the methodology ECLAMC in Bogotá during the period 2001 to 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Zarate, Ana María; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana; García, Gloria; Secretaría Distrital de Salud; Zarante, Ignacio; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Birth defects are a cause of morbidity and mortality in our country, so the Institute of Human Genetics and the Health Secretary of Bogotá developed a surveillance program based on the methodology of the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC).Methods: We collected data on births monitored in the case-control and monitor modes. Maternal and newborn risk factors were evaluated.Results: 121,674 births were monitored, 1,81% had congenital malformatio...

  13. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  14. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  15. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  16. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doi, M [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Lagarde, F [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine; Falk, R; Swedjemark, G A [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m{sup 3}, an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs.

  17. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, M.; Lagarde, F.

    1996-12-01

    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m 3 , an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs

  18. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  19. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  20. Risk-based plant performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Tasked by the 1979 President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, the U.S. nuclear power industry has put into place a performance indicator program as one means for showing a demonstrable record of achievement. Largely through the efforts of the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), plant performance data has, since 1983, been collected and analyzed to aid utility management in measuring their plants' performance progress. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has also developed a set of performance indicators. This program, conducted by NRC's Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), is structured to present information on plant operational performance in a manner that could enhance the staff's ability to recognize changes in the safety performance. Both organizations recognized that performance indicators have limitations and could be subject to misinterpretation and misuse with the potential for an adverse impact on safety. This paper reports on performance indicators presently in use, e.g., unplanned automatic scrams, unplanned safety system actuation, safety system failures, etc., which are logically related to safety. But, a reliability/risk-based method for evaluating either individual indicators or an aggregated set of indicators is not yet available

  1. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  2. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  3. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  4. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  6. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  7. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  8. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  9. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  10. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  11. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  12. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  13. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  14. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  15. Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

  16. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  17. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  18. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  19. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  20. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  1. Configuration control based on risk matrix for radiotherapy treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montes de Oca Quinnones, Joe; Torres Valle, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The incorporation of the science and technique breakthroughs in the application of the radiotherapy represents a challenge so that, the appearance of equipment failure or human mistakes that triggers unfavorable consequences for patients, public, or the occupationally exposed workers; it is also diversified forcing to incorporate besides, as part of the efforts, new techniques for the evaluation of risk and the detection of the weak points that can lead to these consequences. In order to evaluate the risks of the radiotherapy practices there is the SEVRRA code, based on the method of Risk Matrix. The system SEVRRA is the most frequently used code in the applications of risk studies in radiotherapy treatment. On the other hand, starting from the development of tools to control the dangerous configurations in nuclear power plants, it has been developed the SECURE code, which in its application variant of Risk Matrix, has gain a comfortable interface man-machine to make risk analyses to the radiotherapy treatment, molding in this way a lot of combinations of scenarios. These capacities outstandingly facilitate the studies and risk optimization applications in these practices. In the system SECURE-Risk Matrix are incorporated graphic and analytical capacities, which make more flexible the analyses and the subsequent documentation of all the results. The paper shows the the application of the proposed system to an integral risk study for the process of radiotherapy treatment with linear accelerator. (Author)

  2. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  3. The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

    2001-03-01

    he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

  4. A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

  5. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  6. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scislewski, Alexandro [Brazilian Nuclear Energy Comission (CNEN), Avenida Santana, 680, Centro, Caetite-Bahia, 46400-000 (Brazil); Zuddas, Pierpaolo [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris-Sorbonne, ISTEP place Jussieu, Tour 56-55, case 116, F75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2013-07-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  7. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scislewski, Alexandro; Zuddas, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  8. Risk evaluation in Columbian electricity market using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina, S.; Moreno, J.

    2007-01-01

    This article proposes a model based on Fuzzy Logic to evaluate the market risk that a trading agent faces in the electric power negotiation in Colombia, as part of a general model of negotiation. The proposed model considers single external factors as regulatory changes, social and political issues, and the condition of the national transmission net. Variables of the market associated to these risk factors were selected and some graphic and statistical analyses were made in order to check their relationship with the electricity prices and to determine why the experts consider these factors in their analyses. According to the obtained results a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System which contains the expert knowledge was developed and it is presented in a fuzzy cognitive map. (author)

  9. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  10. Lifestyle-based risk model for fall risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sannino, Giovanna; De Falco, Ivanoe; De Pietro, Guiseppe

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the explicit relationship between life-style and the risk of falling under the form of a mathematical model. Starting from some personal and behavioral information of a subject as, e.g., weight, height, age, data about physical activity habits, and concern about falling, the model would estimate the score of her/his Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems (Mini-BES) test. This score ranges within 0 and 28, and the lower its value the more likely the subj...

  11. An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M.

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: 210 Po; 226 Ra and 241 Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like 137 Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

  12. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  13. Evaluation of a Computer-Based Recruitment System for Enrolling Men Who Have Sex With Men Into an Observational HIV Behavioral Risk Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosropour, Christine M; Dombrowksi, Julia C; Hughes, James P; Manhart, Lisa E; Golden, Matthew R

    2016-09-15

    Enrolling large numbers of high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) into human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention studies is necessary for research with an HIV outcome, but the resources required for in-person recruitment can be prohibitive. New methods with which to efficiently recruit large samples of MSM are needed. At a sexually transmitted disease clinic in Seattle, Washington, in 2013-2014, we used an existing clinical computer-assisted self-interview that collects patients' medical and sexual history data to recruit, screen, and enroll MSM into an HIV behavioral risk study and compared enrollees with men who declined to enroll. After completing the clinical computer-assisted self-interview, men aged ≥18 years who reported having had sex with men in the prior year were presented with an electronic study description and consent statement. We enrolled men at 2,661 (54%) of 4,944 visits, including 1,748 unique individuals. Enrolled men were younger (mean age = 34 years vs. 37 years; P partners (11 vs. 8; P use (15% vs. 8%; P < 0.001) than men who declined to enroll, but the HIV test positivity of the two groups was similar (1.9% vs. 2.0%; P = 0.80). Adapting an existing computerized clinic intake system, we recruited a large sample of MSM who may be an ideal population for an HIV prevention study. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  15. Internet-based screening for dementia risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Sullivan, Campbell; Burrell, Larry E; Rogerson, Mark; Anderson, Allan

    2013-01-01

    The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) is an online tool consisting of questions about known risk factors for dementia, a novel verbal memory test, and an informant report of cognitive decline. Its primary goal is to educate the public about dementia risk factors and encourage clinical evaluation where appropriate. In Study 1, more than 3,000 anonymous persons over age 50 completed the DRA about themselves; 1,000 people also completed proxy reports about another person. Advanced age, lower education, male sex, complaints of severe memory impairment, and histories of cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, and brain tumor all contributed significantly to poor memory performance. A high correlation was obtained between proxy-reported decline and actual memory test performance. In Study 2, 52 persons seeking first-time evaluation at dementia clinics completed the DRA prior to their visits. Their responses (and those of their proxy informants) were compared to the results of independent evaluation by geriatric neuropsychiatrists. The 30 patients found to meet criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or frontotemporal dementia differed on the DRA from the 22 patients without dementia (most other neuropsychiatric conditions). Scoring below criterion on the DRA's memory test had moderately high predictive validity for clinically diagnosed dementia. Although additional studies of larger clinical samples are needed, the DRA holds promise for wide-scale screening for dementia risk.

  16. Benefit-risk evaluation of mammographic mass screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Nobuo; Ogura, Toshihiro

    1990-01-01

    This study evaluated the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening by using survival rates from 3000 breast cancer patients at the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research Institute Hospital. Because the number of participants in mammographic mass screening was small, asymptomatic patients with pathologically proven early breast cancer were categorized as the screenee group. Symptomatic patients were categorized as the patient group. Survival rates were compared in both the screenee and the patient groups. Based on the difference in areas of survival curves between screenees and patients, the ratio of person-year gain (PYG) to person-year lost (PYL) was obtained. The ratio of PYG to PYL was multiplied by the detection rate resulting from a particular screening program to obtain the benefit/risk ratio. The detection rate of nonpalpable breast cancer was 15 times higher in the screenee group than the patient group. Breast cancer was detected in 7 (0.85%) of 824 patients in the screenee group. Even when mammographic mass screening was started at the age of 30, the benefit of mammography was far superior to the risk. The number of participants in mass screening stratified by age may be required for the conclusion of the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening. (N.K.)

  17. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  18. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  19. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  20. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  1. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  2. Evaluation of gestational diabetes mellitus risk in South Indian women based on MTHFR (C677T and FVL (G1691A mutations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imran Ali Khan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to scrutinize the extent to which single amino acid substitutions in the MTHFR and FVL genes affect the risk of GDM in pregnant women of South Indian descendant. This case-control study was implemented once the ethical approval has been obtained. Overall 237 women were recruited in this study: 137 had been diagnosed with GDM and the remaining 100 women were used as normal controls or non-GDM. The diagnosis of GDM was confirmed with biochemical analysis i.e., GCT and OGTT tests. Five milliliters of peripheral blood was collected and used for biochemical and molecular analyses. DNA was isolated and genotyping for MTHFR (C677T and FVL (G1691A mutations was performed using PCR-RFLP. FVL (G1691A locus was not polymorphic in the investigated sample. There was no significant difference in the allele and genotype frequencies of C677T polymorphism between GDM and non-GDM women (p=0.8892

  3. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  4. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  5. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  6. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  7. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  8. DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOLS TO GENERATE RISK INDICATORS REGARDING DEGRADATION PROCESSES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kioussi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state.Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such

  9. Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay

    2017-12-20

    Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of

  10. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  11. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  12. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

  13. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

    2017-09-01

    To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

  14. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  15. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  16. A new perspective on Renn and Klinke's approach to risk evaluation and management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristensen, V.; Aven, T.; Ford, D.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we discuss Renn and Klinke's approach for risk evaluation and selection of risk management strategies. The main focus in the discussion is the foundational basis and the understanding of what risk is, and how a different foundational basis may simplify and improve the characterization of risk. We will present and discuss an alternative set of characteristics, and give some recommendations with respect to selection of risk management strategies based on different values or magnitudes of these characteristics. We believe that the main focus when describing and managing risk should be the potential consequences, represented by observable quantities, and the uncertainty related to their future values

  17. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  18. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  19. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  20. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  1. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  2. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  3. Health risk evaluation of certain compounds found in contaminated soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dock, L.; Victorin, K.; Vahter, M.; Ahlborg, U.G.

    1991-01-01

    As part of a redevelopment plan for an old gas works site in Stockholm, the Institute of Environmental Medicine (IEM) at the Karolinska Institute was asked to evaluate the health risks associated with exposure to coal tar, containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), phenols, cyanides, sulfur compounds, arsenic, lead, cadmium and mercury in soil and to suggest guide line values for these compounds in residential areas. Our health risk evaluation was limited to possible effects following direct exposure to contaminated soil. Indirect exposure, i.e. through contaminated ground water or home-grown vegetables, was not considered, nor were effects on building material. The routes of exposure considered were ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation of soil dust. Small children were considered the primary risk group. The critical health effect associated with dermal exposure to PAH in soil is skin cancer. Ingestion of phenols, cyanides and sulphur compounds may cause acute health effects. Recommended guide line values for these contaminants were generally obtained by dividing the lowest observed effect levels with appropriate safety factors. The metals considered may cause both acute and chronic health effects. The guide line values for cadmium and mercury in soil were set based on a maximum intake through ingestion of soil corresponding to 10% of the provisional tolerable weekly intake levels (PTWI) set by FAO/WHO. For arsenic, the guide line value corresponds to 5% of the PTWI-value for a child. The suggested guide line level for lead was based on studied on the association between soil lead concentration and blood lead levels in children. The suggested guide line level for lead in soil may increase the blood-lead in a child by less than 10%. (31 refs.) (au)

  4. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  5. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  6. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  7. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  8. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  9. Rituals in risk evaluation for land-use planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xanten, van N.H.W.; Pietersen, C.M.; Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, H.K.; Kerstens, J.G.M.

    2013-01-01

    In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the

  10. Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xanten, van N.H.W.; Pietersen, C.M.; Pasman, H.J.; Torn, van der P.; Vrijling, H.K.; Wal, van der A.J.; Kerstens, J.G.M.

    2014-01-01

    In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the

  11. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  12. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  13. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  14. Evaluating the effectiveness of a schools-based programme to promote exercise self-efficacy in children and young people with risk factors for obesity: Steps to active kids (STAK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Min

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low levels of physical activity in children have been linked to an increased risk of obesity, but many children lack confidence in relation to exercise (exercise self-efficacy. Factors which can impact on confidence include a chronic health condition such as asthma, poor motor skills and being overweight. Increasing levels of physical activity have obvious benefits for children with asthma and children who are overweight, but few activity interventions with children specifically target children with low exercise self-efficacy (ESE. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of a schools-based activity programme suitable for children with risk factors for adult obesity, including asthma, overweight and low exercise self-efficacy. Methods/Design A clustered (at the level of school RCT will be used to compare a targeted, 10 week, stepped activity programme (activity diary, dance DVD, circuit-training and motivational interviewing designed to promote ESE. We will recruit 20 primary schools to participate in the intervention and 9-11 year old children will be screened for low levels of ESE, asthma and overweight. In order to provide sufficient power to detect a difference in primary outcomes (Body Mass Index-BMI & ESE at 12 month follow-up between children in the intervention schools and control schools, the target sample size is 396. Assessments of BMI, ESE, waist circumference, peak flow, activity levels and emotional and behavioural difficulties will be made at baseline, 4 months and 12 month follow-up. Discussion We aim to increase ESE and levels of physical activity in children with risk factors for adult obesity. The outcomes of this study will inform policy makers about the feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness of delivering targeted health interventions within a school setting. Trial Registration ISRCTN Register no. ISRCTN12650001

  15. Dynamic performances of the fallout radionuclides in the environment and related health risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morisawa, Shinsuke

    2003-01-01

    The framework was developed for evaluating the cancer induction mortality risk due to the prolonged exposure to the fallout Sr-90 in the environment, which was released by the atmospheric nuclear detonation tests, through dietary intake by considering the effect of foods and feeds import to Japan. The risk evaluation framework presented was composed of three sub-models: the model foe evaluation of the global circulation of Sr-90, the model for evaluation of Sr-90 concentration in foods and dietary intake, and the model for the cancer induction mortality risk. The mortality risk by the radiation-induced leukemia was evaluated based on the NUREG/CR-4214 model. The model was applied on the reference Japanese for past half century to evaluate the historical variation of the health risks. The new framework is presented and discussed on their feasibility to apply on the health risk evaluation due to the low-level and prolonged exposure to radionuclides in the environment. The possibility to use some kind of bio-markers are discussed to evaluate the potential health risk in advance before the risk will be actually detected. (author)

  16. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  17. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  18. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  19. Evaluating diffraction-based overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jie; Tan, Asher; Jung, JinWoo; Goelzer, Gary; Smith, Nigel; Hu, Jiangtao; Ham, Boo-Hyun; Kwak, Min-Cheol; Kim, Cheol-Hong; Nam, Suk-Woo

    2012-03-01

    We evaluate diffraction-based overlay (DBO) metrology using two test wafers. The test wafers have different film stacks designed to test the quality of DBO data under a range of film conditions. We present DBO results using traditional empirical approach (eDBO). eDBO relies on linear response of the reflectance with respect to the overlay displacement within a small range. It requires specially designed targets that consist of multiple pads with programmed shifts. It offers convenience of quick recipe setup since there is no need to establish a model. We measure five DBO targets designed with different pitches and programmed shifts. The correlations of five eDBO targets and the correlation of eDBO to image-based overlay are excellent. The targets of 800nm and 600nm pitches have better dynamic precision than targets of 400nm pitch, which agrees with simulated results on signal/noise ratio. 3σ of less than 0.1nm is achieved for both wafers using the best configured targets. We further investigate the linearity assumption of eDBO algorithm. Simulation results indicate that as the pitch of DBO targets gets smaller, the nonlinearity error, i.e., the error in the overlay measurement results caused by deviation from ideal linear response, becomes bigger. We propose a nonlinearity correction (NLC) by including higher order terms in the optical response. The new algorithm with NLC improves measurement consistency for DBO targets of same pitch but different programmed shift, due to improved accuracy. The results from targets with different pitches, however, are improved marginally, indicating the presence of other error sources.

  20. Design of a trial-based economic evaluation on the cost-effectiveness of employability interventions among work disabled employees or employees at risk of work disability: The CASE-study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noben Cindy YG

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the Netherlands, absenteeism and reduced productivity due to work disability lead to high yearly costs reaching almost 5% of the gross national product. To reduce the economic burden of sick leave and reduced productivity, different employability interventions for work-disabled employees or employees at risk of work disability have been developed. Within this study, called 'CASE-study' (Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Sustainable Employability, five different employability interventions directed at work disabled employees with divergent health complaints will be analysed on their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This paper describes a consistent and transparent methodological design to do so. Methods/design Per employability intervention 142 participants are needed whereof approximately 66 participants receiving the intervention will be compared with 66 participants receiving usual care. Based on the intervention-specific characteristics, a randomized control trial or a quasi-experiment with match-criteria will be conducted. Notwithstanding the study design, eligible participants will be employees aged 18 to 63, working at least 12 h per week, and at risk of work disability, or already work-disabled due to medical restrictions. The primary outcome will be the duration of sick leave. Secondary outcomes are health status and quality of life. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline and then 6, 12 and 18 months later. Economic costs will consist of healthcare costs and cost of lost production due to work disability, and will be evaluated from a societal perspective. Discussion The CASE-study is the first to conduct economic evaluations of multiple different employability interventions based on a similar methodological framework. The cost-effectiveness results for every employability intervention will be published in 2014, but the methods, strengths and weaknesses of the study protocol are discussed in this paper. To

  1. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  2. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  3. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  4. Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, P.K.; Joekes, K.; Elwyn, G.; Mazor, K.M.; Thomson, R.; Sedgwick, P.; Ibison, J.; Wong, J.B.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. METHODS: A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental

  5. Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

  6. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  7. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  8. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  9. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  10. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  11. Mammary radiotherapy and patients-risks management with continue evaluation of clinical indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Untereiner, M.; Frederick, B.; Burie, D.; Cavuto, C.; Rob, L.; Coiffier, N.; Colet, M.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The breast irradiation represents 25% of radiotherapy indication in the radiotherapy centers. The modeling of the management of complications risks and recurrences in relation with mammary irradiation constitutes a methodological base allowing to develop a general concept for any other indication of radiotherapy. The objective of the study was a continuous evaluation of clinical risks to get indicators of the therapy results: for the institution, to get an auto-evaluation tool of the functioning (continuous evaluation of clinical results, identification of sentinel events); for the patients to get precise and detailed information on the risks linked to their treatment (communication of clinical results, comparison with the literature, benchmarking). (N.C.)

  12. Risk evaluation of impurities in topical excipients: The acetol case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jente Boonen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pharmaceutical excipients for topical use may contain impurities, which are often neglected from a toxicity qualification viewpoint. The possible impurities in the most frequently used topical excipients were evaluated in-silico for their toxicity hazard. Acetol, an impurity likely present in different topical pharmaceutical excipients such as propylene glycol and glycerol, was withheld for the evaluation of its health risk after dermal exposure.An ex-vivo in-vitro permeation study using human skin in a Franz Diffusion Cell set-up and GC as quantification methodology showed a significant skin penetration with an overall Kp value of 1.82×10−3 cm/h. Using these data, limit specifications after application of a dermal pharmaceutical product were estimated. Based on the TTC approach of Cramer class I substances, i.e. 1800 µg/(day∙person, the toxicity-qualified specification limits of acetol in topical excipients were calculated to be 90 µg/mL and 180 µg/mL for propylene glycol and glycerol, respectively.It is concluded that setting specification limits for impurities within a quality-by-design approach requires a case-by-case evaluation as demonstrated here with acetol. Keywords: Acetol, Impurity, Excipients, Transdermal penetration, Specification limits

  13. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  14. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  15. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  16. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  17. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  18. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  19. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  20. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  1. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  2. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  3. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  4. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  5. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  6. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  7. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  8. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  9. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  10. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  11. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  12. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  13. Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

    1997-01-01

    This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes

  14. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  15. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  16. Risk assessment of logistics outsourcing based on BP neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng; Tian, Zi-you

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the risk of the enterprises logistics outsourcing. To get this goal, the paper first analysed he main risks existing in the logistics outsourcing, and then set up a risk evaluation index system of the logistics outsourcing; second applied BP neural network into the logistics outsourcing risk evaluation and used MATLAB to the simulation. It proved that the network error is small and has strong practicability. And this method can be used by enterprises to evaluate the risks of logistics outsourcing.

  17. A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

  18. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  19. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  20. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  1. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  2. Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

  3. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  4. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  5. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  6. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  7. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  8. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  9. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana; Jednak, Sandra; Benkovic, Sladana; Poznanic, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: → Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. → Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. → Risk analysis was done using FMEA. → Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. → The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  10. Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Kuei-Yung; Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Agencies are increasingly following principles and guidelines for the coordination of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication in large-scale programs. In particular, there is a challenge to comply with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis” among other guidelines. This paper demonstrates a systemic approach to achieve compliance of a risk program with administrative and organizational principles and guidelines for risk analysis. The paper suggests three canonical questions as the mission of such a program: (i) what sources of risks are to be managed by the program, (ii) how should multiple risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication activities be administered and coordinated, and what should be the basis for resource allocation to these activities, and (iii) how will the performance of the program be monitored and evaluated. The paper demonstrates a re-prioritization of policy initiatives of the program based on emergent and future conditions. The approach is useful to agencies implementing risk or safety organizational guidelines such as those of the OMB, the US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Department of Defense, and others. This paper will be of interest to risk managers; agencies; and risk and safety analysts engaged in the conception, implementation, and evaluation of risk or safety programs. - Highlights: ► We develop a systemic approach for management of a risk or safety program. ► The approach includes business process models and policy prioritization. ► The results support organizations to implement risk and safety programs.

  11. Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

    2013-01-01

    A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

  12. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  13. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  14. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

  15. Assaying the effect of levodopa on the evaluation of risk in healthy humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    Full Text Available In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20 employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes--skewness, dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback.

  16. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  17. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  18. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  19. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  20. Fuzzy Evaluation of Highway Project Financing Risks Based on Entropy%基于熵权的高速公路项目融资风险模糊评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄琼; 杨玉宝

    2015-01-01

    This paper combines fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)with entropy weight method to evaluate the highway project financing risks.The combination is objective and reasonable,which enables a comprehensive evaluation of the level of project financing risks for rational investment decisions in advance.Firstly,the risks are divided into two levels which are of 7 first -class indexes and 31 second -class indexes through the practical ex-perience of highway project financing risks both in domestic and foreign countries,then the risk level is divided into five levels.FAHP is used to assess highway project financing risks,and entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index.This combination of subjective and objective methods enhances the reasonableness of the evaluation.Western Yunnan Roads Development Project is then selected as a case to elaborate the using of FAHP and entropy weight method in expressway project financing risk assessment.%本文选取模糊层次分析法和熵权法结合来评价高速公路项目融资风险,该评价方法既客观又合理,能够在事前对项目融资的风险高低做出综合评价以进行合理的投资决策。我们首先通过综合国内外高速公路项目融资实践中遇到的普遍风险,将风险划分为两个层次共7个一级指标和31个二级指标,并将风险等级划分为五个级别,选取模糊层次分析法对高速公路项目融资风险做出评价,中间采用熵权法来确定各级指标权重,将主观与客观相结合,增强评价的合理性。同时选择云南西部道路发展项目作为案例进行分析,更加清晰地阐述了模糊层次分析法和熵权法在高速公路项目融资风险评价中的运用。

  1. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  2. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  3. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  4. Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)

  5. Packaging and transportation risk management and evaluation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhyne, W.R.

    1993-09-01

    Shipments of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are governed by a variety of Federal and state regulations, industrial standards, and LANL processes and procedures. Good judgement is exercised in situations that are not covered by regulations. As a result, the safety record for transporting hazardous materials at LANL has been excellent. However, future decisions should be made such that the decision-making process produces a defensible record of the safety of onsite shipments. This report proposes the development of a risk management tool to meet this need. First, the application of quantitative risk analysis methodology to transportation is presented to provide a framework of understanding. Risk analysis definitions, the basic quantitative risk analysis procedure, quantitative methodologies, transportation data bases, and risk presentation techniques are described. Quantitative risk analysis is frequently complex; but simplified approaches can be used as a management tool to make good decisions. Second, a plan to apply the use of risk management principles to the selection of routes, special administrative controls, and containers for hazardous material transportation at LANL is provided. A risk management tool is proposed that can be used by MAT-2 without substantial support from specialized safety and risk analysis personnel, e.g., HS-3. A workbook approach is proposed that can be automated at a later date. The safety of some types of onsite shipments at LANL is not well documented. Documenting that shipments are safe, i.e., present acceptable risks, will likely require elaborate analyses that should be thoroughly reviewed by safety and risk professionals. These detailed analyses are used as benchmarks and as examples for the use of the proposed tool by MAT-2. Once the benchmarks are established, the workbook can be used by MAT-2 to quantify that safety goals are met by similar shipments

  6. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  7. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  8. Software for occupational health and safety risk analysis based on a fuzzy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanovic, Miladin; Tadic, Danijela; Djapan, Marko; Macuzic, Ivan

    2012-01-01

    Risk and safety management are very important issues in healthcare systems. Those are complex systems with many entities, hazards and uncertainties. In such an environment, it is very hard to introduce a system for evaluating and simulating significant hazards. In this paper, we analyzed different types of hazards in healthcare systems and we introduced a new fuzzy model for evaluating and ranking hazards. Finally, we presented a developed software solution, based on the suggested fuzzy model for evaluating and monitoring risk.

  9. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  10. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  11. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  12. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  13. Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Yuan WANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

  14. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  15. A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingtao; Zhang, Ying

    2009-07-01

    Online credit evaluation is the foundation for the establishment of trust and for the management of risk between buyers and sellers in e-commerce. In this paper, a new credit evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the set pair analysis (SPA) is presented to determine the credibility of the electronic commerce participants. It solves some of the drawbacks found in classical credit evaluation methods and broadens the scope of current approaches. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered in the proposed method, then a overall credit score is achieved from the optimal perspective. In the end, a case analysis of China Garment Network is provided for illustrative purposes.

  16. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  17. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  18. Team based risk assessment in the South African mining industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, J.; Ashworth, G.; Webger, S.; Protheroe, B. [CSIR, Auckland Park (South Africa). MineRisk Africa Division

    1996-12-31

    Improved health and safety for the large mining workforce in South Africa is a priority. Risk Assessments will be mandatory following the promulgation of the new health and safety act, due out in mid 1996. There is also a strong demand for employee organizations for participation in regulating the work process, particularly in the aspects of health and safety. The concept of system safety is that safe production is achieved through four ingredients, being, competent and trained personnel working according to appropriate standard operating practices using fit-for-purpose equipment in a well-controlled environment. A deficiency in any one of these areas will lead to an increased chance of operating problems and consequently accidents. The Mine Risk processes for risk assessment and management provide a mechanism for adopting this concept in practical mining operations; they provide a framework for identifying the root cause of safety problems as a basis for defining changes which will contribute significantly towards improving safety. The Mine Risk processes are applied practively and systematically to identify hazards and evaluate the magnitude of the associated risk in a defined aspect of the mining operation using a participative team based approach. The team, whose membership consists of highly experienced personnel drawn from all relevant departments and from positions ranging from manager to operator, then determines practical controls to reduce priority risks to acceptable levels. Team building is a natural product of this process, and should lead to higher productivity levels which is also a cause for concern. By using this process, a number of objectives of all the stakeholders in the South African Mining industry are addressed. 3 tabs.

  19. Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  20. Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation Data (BASE)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) study was a five year study to characterize determinants of indoor air quality and occupant perceptions in...

  1. Performance-Based Evaluation and School Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Church, Audrey P.

    2015-01-01

    Evaluation of instructional personnel is standard procedure in our Pre-K-12 public schools, and its purpose is to document educator effectiveness. With Race to the Top and No Child Left Behind waivers, states are required to implement performance-based evaluations that demonstrate student academic progress. This three-year study describes the…

  2. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  3. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  4. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    This document provides guidance on the process of risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) at the Hanford Site. Remediation activities at the Hanford Site are being conducted pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Restoration, Compensation, and Liability Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This document identifies points in the remedial alternative selection process where risk assessment input is either required or desirable. For each of these points of application, the document identifies issues to consider and address, and suggests possible approaches, techniques, and appropriate levels of detail. The level of detail of a RERA is driven by the need to use risk as a criterion for selecting a remedial alternative. Such a document is needed to ensure that RERA is conducted in a consistent manner, and to prevent restating or creating guidance within each RERA

  5. Evaluation of the upset risk in CMOS SRAM through full three dimensional simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, Y.; Gasiot, J.; Duzellier, S.

    1995-01-01

    Upsets caused by incident heavy ion on CMOS static RAM are studied here. Three dimensional device simulations, based on a description of a full epitaxial CMOS inverter, and experimental results are reported for evaluation of single and multiple bit error risk. The particular influences of hit location and incidence angle are examined

  6. Evaluation of a risk index for advanced proximal neoplasia of the colon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruco, Arlinda; Stock, David; Hilsden, Robert J; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Paszat, Lawrence F; Saskin, Refik; Rabeneck, Linda

    2015-01-01

    A clinical risk index that uses distal colorectal findings at flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) in conjunction with easily determined risk factors for advanced proximal neoplasia (APN) may be useful for tailoring or prioritizing screening with colonoscopy. To conduct an external evaluation of a previously published risk index in a large, well-characterized cohort. Cross-sectional. Teaching hospital and colorectal cancer screening center. A total of 5139 asymptomatic persons aged 50 to 74 (54.9% women) with a mean age (±SD) of 58.3 (±6.2) years. Between 2003 and 2011, all participants underwent a complete screening colonoscopy and removal of all polyps. Participants were classified as low, intermediate, or high risk for APN, based on their composite risk index scores. The concordance or c-statistic was used to measure discriminating ability of the risk index. A total of 167 persons (3.2%) had APN. The prevalence of those with APN among low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories was 2.1%, 2.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. High-risk individuals were 3.2 times more likely to have APN compared with those in the low-risk category. The index did not discriminate well between those in the low- and intermediate-risk categories. The c-statistic for the overall index was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.66). Distal colorectal findings were derived from colonoscopies and not FS itself. The risk index discriminated between those at low risk and those at high risk, but it had limited ability to discriminate between low- and intermediate-risk categories for prevalent APN. Information on other risk factors may be needed to tailor, or prioritize, access to screening colonoscopy. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF A NONSTEROIDAL ANTI-INFLAMMATORY DRUG (NSAID SELECTION ALGORITHM BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS FOR DRUG-INDUCED COMPLICATIONS IN REAL CLINICAL PRACTICE: THE RESULTS OF THE ALL-RUSSIAN PRINCIPLE PROJECT (APPLICAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Karateev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To enhance the efficacy and safety of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs, a class of essential medications used to treat acute and chronic pain, is an important and urgent task. For its solution, in 2015 Russian experts provided an NSAID selection algorithm based on the assessment of risk factors (RFs for drug-induced complications and on the prescription of drugs with the least negative effect on the gastrointestinal tract and cardiovascular system. The PRINCIPLE project was implemented to test the effectiveness of this algorithm.Subjects and methods. A study group consisted of 439 patients (65% were women and 35% – men; their mean age was 51.3±14.4 years with severe musculoskeletal pain, who were prescribed NSAIDs by using the above algorithm. The majority of patients were noted to have RFs: gastrointestinal and cardiovascular ones in 62 and 88% of the patients, respectively. Given the RF, eight NSAIDs were used; these were aceclofenac, diclofenac, ibuprofen, ketoprofen, meloxicam, naproxen, nimesulide, and celecoxib, the latter being prescribed most commonly (in 57.4% of cases. NSAID was used in combination with proton pump inhibitors in 30.2% of the patients. The follow-up period was 28 days. The investigators evaluated the efficacy of therapy (pain changes on a 10-point numeric rating scale (NRS and the development of adverse events (AE. Results and discussion. Pain was completely relieved in the overwhelming majority (94.9% of patients. There were no significant differences in the efficacy of different NSAIDs according to NRS scores. The number of AE was minimal and did not differ between different NSAIDs, with the exception of a higher frequency of dyspepsia caused by diclofenac (15.7%. There were no serious complications or therapy discontinuation because of AE.Conclusion. The use of the NSAID selection algorithm allows for effective and relatively safe therapy with these drugs in real clinical practice.

  8. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  9. Iterative Evaluation in a Mobile Counseling and Testing Program to Reach People of Color at Risk for HIV--New Strategies Improve Program Acceptability, Effectiveness, and Evaluation Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

    2011-01-01

    This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program's…

  10. THE IMPORTANCE OF EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Economies with dominant private ownership and developed market institutions build their prosperity on a firm`s goal function in a form of maximization owner`s wealth. Financial situation of business organization is most important indicate that shows level of financial health. The creation of value for the owners imply two matters simultaneously competitive advantage and the evaluation of economic effects. Among economic activities, establishes the different types of addiction. In this work authors draw attention to two categories: the functional and stochastic. Case studies will be cash flows of investment and the contribution of the stochastic component of the risk of enterprise value. Methodological dominated analytical and descriptive methods. Management in the process of evaluation of investment seen what happens behind the projections of cash flows and estimates of available chances for possible modifications. The purpose of the discussion in this section refers to the warning that the application of the rules of net present values does not mean the completion of the management process at the moment of the decision on the selection of investments. In this study, we analyze the influence of stochastic risk in the creation of enterprise value, especially if the risk is managed improperly. In this connection, the starting hypothesis is that adequately compensate for risk has a positive effect on new investments and reduce the antagonism of shareholders and other creditors of the company.

  11. The radon in Corsica: evaluation of exposure and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-02-01

    The average level found in Corsica is superior to that one found in France. On the basis of the results of it campaign I.R.S.N.-D.G.S., the French average is of 90 Bq.m 3 against 197 Bq.m 3 for Corsica. The risk of dying from a lung cancer attributable to the radon was estimated at 13 % in France. The evaluation of risk led on Corsica shows a risk attributable to the radon included between 21.5 and 28 %.This evaluation of risk is only a stage. It is important to arrest better the exposure to the radon of the Corsican population. For a good estimation of the levels of radon and thus the impact of this one, additional measures are necessary. The results of the data analysis of exposure allow to guide the choice of the new measures: a campaign on the season effect in Corsica and a completion of the measures in housing are two main axes.Seen the importance of the interaction between the tobacco and the radon, a good estimation of the tobacco customs in Corsica and its evolution in the time seems essential to estimate indeed the impact of the radon in this region. (N.C.)

  12. Comprehensive Evaluation of Altered Systemic Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    09/08/15-08/31/19 0.96 cal. mo. NIH/NCI $168,300 A prospective investigation of the oral microbiome and pancreatic cancer 1.To perform a...and BWHS. 2.To evaluate racial differences in the oral microbiome using 165 AA and 165 EA controls (from the SCCS only), and to identify any racial...risk factors for pancreatic cancer (cigarette smoking, obesity, red meat and processed meat consumption, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes) and oral

  13. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Vieira, Daniela Calazans; Krause, Gilson Galvao

    1999-01-01

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  14. Evaluation of creditability and risk minimisation : The effect of accounting for intangibles

    OpenAIRE

    Lukiyanov, Artem

    2005-01-01

    The recent history knows numerous examples of creditor’s inability to evaluate financial solvency of the client correctly. Creditors’ risks do not only concern individual relations between the two parties but the economy in general. The standard loan-giving procedure considers evaluation based on a number of financial ratios. Using the standard method a company that in reality is creditable may sometimes be counted as insolvent by the bank – due to the structure of the balance sheet, for inst...

  15. Fundamentals of defining and evaluating technical risks and hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, G.

    1982-01-01

    This contribution is concerned with discussions of undefined judicial concepts in the area of Safety engineering from the point of view of science and technology. Concepts like risk assessments, including accident probibility predictions are discussed and condensed in the demand: ''Risk must be acceptably low.'' Acceptability of risk is and remains a question of judgement. This judgement must be based on the specific plant involved, and in the final analysis; should be made on the basis of value judgements of all concerned. Measures and criteria for the acceptability of risk have been developed over the years. They will be determined by safety-related of security maximum acceptable values as stated in the appropriate regulations, as well as through licensing, permits, etc. Experience shows that a continuous expansion, based on safety-related research that would include extensive accident analysis, is needed. Should the status of science and technology change, it could become necessary that the measures or criteria for risk assessment would have to change also. (orig./HSCH) [de

  16. Synthesis of novel 1,2,3-triazole based benzoxazolinones: their TNF-α based molecular docking with in-vivo anti-inflammatory, antinociceptive activities and ulcerogenic risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haider, Saqlain; Alam, M Sarwar; Hamid, Hinna; Shafi, Syed; Nargotra, Amit; Mahajan, Priya; Nazreen, Syed; Kalle, Arunasree M; Kharbanda, Chetna; Ali, Yakub; Alam, Aftab; Panda, Amulya K

    2013-01-01

    A library of novel bis-heterocycles containing benzoxazolinone based 1,2,3-triazoles has been synthesized using click chemistry approach. The compound 3f exhibited potent selective COX-2 inhibition of 59.48% in comparison to standard drug celecoxib (66.36% inhibition). The compound 3i showed significant (p < 0.001, 50.95%), TNF-α inhibitory activity as compared to indomethacin (p < 0.001, 64.01%). The results of the carrageenan induced hind paw oedema showed that compounds 3a, 3f, 3i, 3o, and 3e exhibited potent anti-inflammatory activity in comparison to Indomethacin. The molecular docking studies revealed that 3i exhibits strong inhibitory effect due to the extra stability of the complex because of an extra π-π bond. The histopathology report showed that none of the compounds caused gastric ulceration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

  18. Evaluation of risk of atherosclerosis in Indian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Deepa; Chiplonkar, Shashi; Khadilkar, Anuradha; Kinare, Arun; Khadilkar, Vaman; Divate, Uma

    2013-05-01

    To investigate interrelationship of arterial measurements with metabolic syndrome (MS) components and zinc status in apparently healthy Indian adults. Anthropometry and biochemical data were recorded in 110 men and 139 women (25-50 yr). Carotid Intima media thickness (CIMT), stiffness (beta), pulse wave velocity (PWV), elasticity modulus (Ep), and arterial compliance (AC) of the right carotid artery were evaluated ultrasonically. According to definition of MS, subjects were categorized as MS-1, MS-2, MS-3. Further, normal and MS subjects were divided as zinc sufficient and deficient. In all, 12.1% subjects had 3 risk factors for MS. Mean CIMT, beta, Ep and PWV were significantly higher by 6%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 12.4% in subjects with MS than normal (p < 0.05). AC showed significant decline in MS subjects by only 3% than normal (p < 0.05). Serum zinc was inversely correlated with beta, Ep and PWV in both the genders in subjects with MS (p < 0.05). A synergistic effect of serum zinc deficiency with MS further envisages the elevated risk of arterial stiffness. Risk of atherosclerosis is marked by increase in stiffness parameters even in presence of a single MS risk and zinc deficiency may further aggravate the risk indicating need for early diagnosis.

  19. Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

  20. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  1. Risk informed inservice inspection evaluation of the ComEd nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Hutchinson, J.J.

    2000-01-01

    In November, 1999 Commonwealth Edison Company began the largest scope project yet performed to implement risk informed in-service inspection programs for piping systems. A contractor team led by ERIN Engineering and Research was selected to perform full scope risk informed evaluations on ten reactor units at five sites including 3 BWR and 2 PWR stations. This risk informed evaluation has applied a number of advancements to RISI technology in key areas including risk quantification of inspection program changes, element selection, treatment of multiple damage mechanisms at a given location, and in streamlining an approach to RISI initially developed by EPRI. The scope of the evaluation covered more than 18,000 ASME Class 1 and 2 welds not counting those that will continue to be inspected as part of augmented programs for flow accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and service water systems. When the current ASME Section XI based exams are replaced by the risk informed program, while some new inspection locations will be added, substantial cost savings and person-rem exposures are projected from the elimination of most of the current exams. ComEd expects to recover its investment in the RISI evaluation for each of the 10 reactor units in 1 to 2 refueling outages, from the cost savings of reduced inspections. At the same time, the risk of a severe accident due to pipe ruptures is not expected to exhibit significant changes. (author)

  2. Financial Derivatives (Based on Two Supports Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiberiu Socaciu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we build a PDE like Black-Scholes equation in hypothesis of a financial derivative that is dependent on two supports (usual is dependent only on one support, like amoption based on gold, when national currency has a great float.Keywords: Financial derivatives, derivatives evaluation, derivatives based on two supports, extended Itō like lemma.

  3. Evaluation of unit risk factors in support of the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strenge, D.L.; Chamberlain, P.J. II.

    1994-11-01

    This report describes the generation of unit risk factors for use with the Graphical Information System (GIS) being developed by Advanced Sciences, Inc. for the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. The GIS couples information on source inventory and environmental transport with unit risk factors to estimate the potential risk from contamination at all locations on the Hanford Site. The major components of the effort to generate the unit risk factors were: determination of pollutants to include in the study, definition of media of concern, and definition of exposure assessment scenarios, methods, and parameters. The selection of pollutants was based on inventory lists which indicated the pollutants likely to be encountered at the known waste sites. The final pollutants selected included 47 chemical pollutants and 101 radionuclides. Unit risk factors have been generated for all 148 pollutants per unit initial concentration in five media: soil (per unit mass), soil (per unit area), air, groundwater, and surface water. The exposure scenarios were selected as the basis for the unit risk factor generation. The endpoint in the exposure assessment analysis is expressed as risk of developing cancer for radionuclides and carcinogenic chemicals. For noncarcinogenic chemicals, the risk endpoint is the hazard quotient. The cancer incidence and hazard quotient values are evaluated for all exposure pathways, pollutants, and scenarios. The hazard index values and unit risk values are used by the GIS to produce maps of risk for the Hanford Site

  4. 75 FR 2723 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-15

    ...-based pricing notice to a consumer when the creditor uses a consumer report to grant or extend credit to... consumers to combat identity theft, increase the accuracy of consumer reports, and allow consumers to... consumer report is often used in evaluating the risk posed by the consumer. Creditors that engage in risk...

  5. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  6. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  7. Quality Risk Evaluation of the Food Supply Chain Using a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain can reduce quality information asymmetry and food quality incidents and promote nationally integrated regulations for food quality. In order to evaluate it, a quality risk evaluation indicator system for the food supply chain is constructed based on an extensive literature review in this paper. Furthermore, a mathematical model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain is developed. A computational experiment aimed at verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model is conducted on the basis of a questionnaire survey. The results suggest that this model can be used as a general guideline to assess the quality risk level in the food supply chain and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on food quality management.

  8. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  9. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

  10. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  11. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  12. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  13. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  14. A risk-based approach to prioritize underground storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs) for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were pumped out at the time the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include, the radionuclides, 9O Sr, 137 Cs and 233 U and the chemicals, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank; (2) location of the tanks; and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents

  15. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  16. EVALUATING KEY ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTORS FOR POLLUTION AT INTERNATIONAL PORTS IN TAIWAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuan-Hao Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP approach to evaluate the key environmental risk factors for pollution at international ports in Taiwan. Relying on the literature and experts’ opinions, a hierarchical structure with three risk aspects and thirteen risk factors is first constructed, and a FAHP model then proposed. Based on data from the AHP experts’ questionnaires, we use the FAHP approach to determine key environmental risk factors. Finally, the results show that: (1 Air pollution is the most important aspect of environmental pollution at international ports in Taiwan. (2 In order of relative importance, the top five key environmental risk factors for pollution at international ports in Taiwan are the oil leaks from ships, volatile organic compounds (VOCs, exhaust emissions from ships at berth, harmful coatings on ships' hulls, and ships' failure to use low-pollution fuel. Furthermore, some discussions are provided for port authority in Taiwan.

  17. Place of Risk Analysis in Tax Audit: Some Country Practices and an Evaluation for Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feride BAKAR

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of information technologies and risk analysis have become an important position in tax audit, as in all fields. Systems used in this area, are different in many ways and for this reason, making comparative study, evaluating best practices and its effects to results should be examined. In this study, development of risk analysis systems in Australia, United Kingdom, Austria, the USA and their place ensuring effectiveness of tax audit was investigated. Thus, some findings were made for Turkey with help of examining the current status of tax audits based on risk analysis. In the past, risk analysis was used for providing effectiveness of tax audit, but today the purpose has evolved to focus increasing tax compliance. For realization of this purpose in Turkey, disclosure of risk areas in general, informing taxpayers and establishment of cooperative compliance model with large business is needed.

  18. Evaluation of sustainable supply chain risk management using an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS- CRITIC approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostamzadeh, Reza; Ghorabaee, Mehdi Keshavarz; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    Supply chain risk management research has mainly mistreated the important of sustainability issues. Moreover, there is little knowledge about sustainable management of risk and supply chain and the way they impose losses for firms. Risk management's duty in the supply chain is to identify, analyze......, and provide solutions for accountability, control and monitor the risks in the economic and production cycle. This study aims to develop a framework for the sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) evaluation. To this end, an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed...... based on the technique in order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. The literature was reviewed and the potential criteria were identified. Through an expert panel the criteria were filtered. Seven main...

  19. Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

    2016-04-01

    As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

  20. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  1. Evaluation and Selection of International Supplier, Underscoring Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyed Mohammad Ali Khatami Firouzabadi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the decision making process for import complete manufactured pieces versus import of partial pieces to assemble in Iran, taking into account the risk factors for a manufacturing company. Since this sort of decision making confront with several risks, it is necessary to establish a process for finding the risks associated with this kind of problems in order to decrease the effects of these risks in the process. Since the problem is classified as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM problem, Uncertain Analytical Hierarchy Process (UAHP was used to find the most attractive alternative. Because the alternatives were identified from the first point, a bottom-up procedure was used to organize the hierarchy. In initial stage, the attributes which distinct from the alternatives were obtained by literature review and experts' interviews. Then the attributes were grouped to upper level to establish the criteria. Three criteria were found from this stage. The criteria were product, partners, and environment which they encompassed 12 attributes. Forming the hierarchy and doing the uncertain pairwised comparisons, which considers a range of numbers instead of one single number for declaring the preference between two factors, a Linear Programming (LP model with two types of objective functions were formed for each individual alternative. Each single LP model can express the maximum and minimum value of each individual alternative. The research's results indicate the most appropriate alternative is to import the final product from India. The last preferred one was to import the parts of the final product from India. This study can be a suitable framework in supply chain management and purchasing decisions and risk evaluations because the major parts of manufacturing activities is always to decide about the selection of most preferred strategies for companies.

  2. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  3. [Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo

    2014-04-01

    Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

  4. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  5. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee

    2018-05-09

    Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.

  7. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

    2013-06-01

    The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  9. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  10. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  11. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  12. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

  13. The Risks and Rewards of Value-Based Reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Robert J; Maryland, Patricia A

    2015-01-01

    As healthcare systems across the country shift to value-based care, they face an enormous challenge. Not only must they reimagine how they identify, engage, and manage the care of patients, they also need to determine new ways of engaging and aligning physicians and other caregivers in creating better-coordinated care across the continuum. This article explores how healthcare systems making the transition from volume to value can maximize their reward while managing their risk. As the largest not-for-profit healthcare system in the United States and the largest Catholic healthcare system in the world, Ascension is committed to making its own transition, marked by broad-based innovation. We call this goal the Quadruple Aim: improving health outcomes, patient experiences, and provider experiences while lowering the overall cost of care. Healthcare systems and providers have many value-based models to choose from, including pay for performance (P4P), shared savings, bundled payments, shared risk, global capitation, and provider-sponsored health plans. Analysis of these options should include an evaluation of market readiness (i.e., the ability of a health system to align with the needs of employers or commercial insurers in a given market). Healthcare systems also must be prepared to invest in resources that facilitate effective transitions and continuity of care--for example, care management. In addition, they need to recognize that as they focus on wellness, inpatient volumes will decline, requiring cost-structure adjustments and added ancillary services to compensate for this decline. Some healthcare systems are even exploring the possibility of becoming their own payer, taking on more risk and responsibility for the health of patients and populations.

  14. State-of-the-art risk-based approach to spill contingency planning and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, Dagmar; Reilly, Timothy; French McCay, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes incorporating a comprehensive examination of spill risk into risk management and contingency planning, and applying state-of-the-art modeling tools to evaluate various alternatives for appropriate spill response measures and optimize protective responses. The approach allows spill contingency planners and decision-makers to determine the types of spill scenarios that may occur in a particular location or from a particular source and calculate the probability distribution of the various scenarios. The spill probability information is useful in assessing and putting into perspective the various costs options for spill control systems that will be recommended ultimately. Using advanced modeling tools helps in estimating the potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of each spill scenario based on location-specific factors over a range of stochastic possibilities, simulating spill scenarios and determining optimal responses and protection strategies. The benefits and costs of various response alternatives and variations in response time can be calculated and modeling tools for training and risk allocation/transfer purposes used.

  15. Mobile based optical form evaluation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asım Sinan YÜKSEL

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Optical forms that contain multiple-choice answers are widely used both for electing students and evaluating student achievements in education systems in our country and worldwide. Optical forms are evaluated by employing optical mark recognition techniques through optical readers. High cost of these machines, limited access to them, long waiting time for evaluation results make the process hard for educationists working in cities or countries. In this study, a mobile application was developed for the educationists who own mobile phones or tablets for the purpose of evaluating students' answer sheets quickly and independent of location and optical readers. Optical form recognition, reading and evaluation processes are done on the image of student's answer sheet that is taken with the mobile phone or tablet of educationist. The Android based mobile application that we developed has a user-friendly interface, high success rate and is the first of our knowledge application that operates on mobile platforms in this field.

  16. Patient Doses and Risk Evaluation in Bone Mineral Densitometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelucci, M.; Borio, R.; Chiocchini, S.; Degli Esposti, P.; Dipilato, A.C.; Policani, G.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work was to evaluate the equipment dose to the organs and tissues and the effective dose of patients undergoing the most frequent examinations carried out in bone mineral densitometry (BMD): lumbar spine and femur. Experimental measurements of absorbed doses on a Rando phantom, allow comparison of the performances of three different photon emitter facilities. The comparison of the entrance and exit doses measured on a Rando phantom and on 50 female non-obese patients show that entrance doses on Rando can be used as 'diagnostic reference levels' for patients. A quantitative estimate of the stochastic risk due to BMD procedures was made: the results obtained show that the stochastic risk is very low and that the BMD is, at present, the most confirmed procedure for osteoporosis diagnosis and management. (author)

  17. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  18. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  19. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc; Bomfim, Joao A S

    2011-01-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  20. Evaluation of radiation risk and work practices during cerebral interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingstone, Roshan S; Raghuram, L; Korah, Ipeson P; Raj, D Victor [Department of Radiodiagnosis, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004 (India)

    2003-09-01

    This study was intended to evaluate radiation risk to patients during cerebral interventions and the contribution to this risk from work practices. Thirty nine patients undergoing cerebral interventions in a digital subtraction angiography suite were included in this study. Patients who underwent cerebral interventions were categorised into two groups according to the number of cerebral interventions performed on them, and their effective doses were calculated. The effective dose for patients undergoing a single cerebral intervention (group A) varied from 1.55 to 15.9 mSv and for multiple cerebral interventions (group B) varied from 16.52 to 43.52 mSv. Two patients who underwent multiple cerebral interventions (group B) had alopecia of the irradiated scalp.

  1. Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

  2. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  3. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  4. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  5. Evaluation bases for calculation methods in radioecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleck-Neuhaus, J.; Boikat, U.; Franke, B.; Hinrichsen, K.; Hoepfner, U.; Ratka, R.; Steinhilber-Schwab, B.; Teufel, D.; Urbach, M.

    1982-03-01

    The seven contributions in this book deal with the state and problems of radioecology. In particular it analyses: The propagation of radioactive materials in the atmosphere, the transfer of radioactive substances from the soil into plants, respectively from animal feed into meat, the exposure pathways for, and high-risk groups of the population, the uncertainties and the band width of the ingestion factor, as well as the treatment of questions of radioecology in practice. The calculation model is assessed and the difficulty evaluated of laying down data in the general calculation basis. (DG) [de

  6. Dynamic portfolio managment based on complex quantile risk measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Tulupova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on effectiveness evaluation combined measures of financial risks, which are convex combinations of measures VaR, CVaR and their analogues for the right distribution tail functions of a portfolio returns.

  7. Destructiveness criteria for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    Two criteria of destructiveness for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant are presented. The first one is a simple linear criterion that allows to compute average response spectra in terms of earthquake accelerogram characteristics. The second defines the destructiveness potential factor P D which measures the capacity of earthquake to produce nonlinear damage. This second criterion that shows large differences of destructiveness capacity for earthquake accelerograms of different seismic environment, specially between subductive and transcursive, is strongly recommended. (author). 8 refs., 1 fig. 1 tab

  8. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  9. Objectives and present status of the German risk evaluation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.; Heuser, F.W.

    1977-01-01

    For the German risk evaluation study, analogous to the Rasmussen report (WASH--1400), embarked upon in June 1976, the Kernkraftwerk Biblis B serves as the plant of reference. The first interim results are available for various sub-headings of the study. The main finding seems to be the decisive importance of the containment in limiting the accident consequences even in those cases where, on account of postulated failure of safety systems, the melt down of the reactor core is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de

  10. A Knowledge-Base for a Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinarti, Retno; Hederman, Lucy

    2018-01-01

    We present a knowledge-base to represent collated infectious disease risk (IDR) knowledge. The knowledge is about personal and contextual risk of contracting an infectious disease obtained from declarative sources (e.g. Atlas of Human Infectious Diseases). Automated prediction requires encoding this knowledge in a form that can produce risk probabilities (e.g. Bayesian Network - BN). The knowledge-base presented in this paper feeds an algorithm that can auto-generate the BN. The knowledge from 234 infectious diseases was compiled. From this compilation, we designed an ontology and five rule types for modelling IDR knowledge in general. The evaluation aims to assess whether the knowledge-base structure, and its application to three disease-country contexts, meets the needs of personalized IDR prediction system. From the evaluation results, the knowledge-base conforms to the system's purpose: personalization of infectious disease risk.

  11. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

    1999-11-14

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

  12. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

  13. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to th