17 CFR 240.15c3-4 - Internal risk management control systems for OTC derivatives dealers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

...-Counter Markets § 240.15c3-4 Internal risk management control systems for OTC derivatives dealers. (a) An... derivatives dealer's internal risk management control system shall include the following elements: (1) A risk... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Internal risk management...

The usage of financial derivatives in financial risk management by non- financial companies in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Živanović Branko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the research results on corporate risk management practices, notably in light of the derivatives use in the large Serbian non-financial companies. The principal aim of this paper is to examine whether Serbian companies employ derivatives to manage risk and to what degree, and to explore the main rationale behind the companies' not employing these instruments, as well as to suggest possible enhancements of risk management practices. Furthermore, we have investigated the key reasons why financial derivatives are very useful for Serbian companies for hedging financial risks. Additionally, this paper provides a comparative overview of the use of derivatives between Serbian companies and the companies in Croatia and Slovenia in order to ascertain whether Serbian companies employ derivatives in order to manage risk to the same degree as their Croatian and Slovenian counterparts. This paper will include findings and provide evidence that FX rate and referent interest rates (such as 1w- 2w repo rate, Beonia and Belibor are markedly volatile, which opens vast possibilities for the use of financial derivatives, given that these financial parameters determine the price of a credit arrangement for companies and the quality of import and export cash flows.

Building Footprints, Primarily residential, at risk buildings such as hospitals, nursing homes, etc for use in Emergency Management Hazard Mitigation planning., Published in 2010, 1:4800 (1in=400ft) scale, Carroll County Government.

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Building Footprints dataset current as of 2010. Primarily residential, at risk buildings such as hospitals, nursing homes, etc for use in Emergency Management Hazard...

Weather derivatives or how an energy company can hedge its weather risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tahghighi, A.; Carpentier, Ph.

2000-01-01

This paper gives a detailed overview of weather derivatives and explains where this new class of financial products falls. The emergence of weather derivatives came about as a response to a need in the energy sector to hedge this sector's weather risks. This article focuses on the nature of these financial contracts, what they include and how they are priced. This article concludes by stating that energy companies in Europe can no longer afford to remain exposed to weather risks in an increasingly privatized and competitive market

Derivation of endogenous equivalent values to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for an endogenous carcinogen: Ethylene oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirman, C R; Hays, S M

2017-12-01

An approach is presented for ethylene oxide (EO) to derive endogenous equivalent (EE) values, which are endogenous levels normally found within the body expressed in terms of exogenous exposures. EE values can be used to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for chemicals such as EO that have both endogenous and exogenous exposure pathways. EE values were derived using a meta-analysis of data from the published literature characterizing the distribution for an EO biomarker of exposure, hemoglobin N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-valine (HEV), in unexposed populations. These levels are compared to the those reported in exposed populations (smokers, workers). Correlation between the biomarker of exposure and external exposures of EO were applied to this distribution to determine corresponding EE values, which range from 0.13 to 6.9 ppb for EO in air. These values are orders of magnitude higher than risk-based concentration values derived for EO using default methods, and are provided as a pragmatic, data-driven alternative approach to managing the potential risks from exogenous exposures to EO. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MANAGING THE USE OF DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS FOR PORTFOLIO RISK PURPOSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mădălina Antoaneta RĂDOI

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The priority in portfolio management is a good risk assessment and management. Of great importance is the margin that an asset portfolio guarantor must use with specific expertise in certain areas of market temporal inefficiency in order to improve its management performance. The relevant validity of the financial market and the emphasis laid on risk management carried along the development of financial instruments tailored to risk management. New derivative financial instruments have revolutionized the methods of portfolio management, of corporate treasury management, of banking management and, more generally, all financial strategies.

Human risk relationships derived from epidemiology and laboratory studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuddihy, R.G.; Boecker, B.B.; Hahn, F.F.; McClellan, R.O.

1983-01-01

Proven techniques are needed for incorporating the results of laboratory toxicology studies into human risk assessments. Two sample calculations of lung cancer risk factors for inhaled radioactive particles and diesel engine exhaust are given here to illustrate a toxicology information matrix approach. This approach combines the results of epidemiology and laboratory animal studies of the substance or agent of principal concern, along with similar information on other surrogate substances. Beyond the estimates of lung cancer risk factors derived by using this approach, an additional advantage is gained by having estimates of uncertainty that can be obtained by incorporating all available toxicology information into the analysis. This approach is recommended for both risk assessment and in designing follow-on toxicology studies to improve preliminary assessments for new potentially harmful agents entering our environment

Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (1/3)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

2009-01-01

Abstract: An introduction to the mathematics and practicalities of market trading and risk management for financial derivatives, the course will focus on examples from the short-term and long term Foreign Exchange (FX) and Interest Rate (IR) derivatives markets. Topics: - Government Bonds and IR Curves - Stochastic FX, Black-Scholes Vanilla FX Options and Martingales - Risk Management and Market Trading for Vanilla FX Options, Market Implied Volatility, Valuation and Risk Management, Market Trading Strategies - Stochastic IR Curves and Implied Volatility, IR Derivatives - Long Term FX Options: Interaction of Stochastic FX and Stochastic IR Vanilla Foreign Exchange (FX) Options - $ Government Bonds, Interest Rate (IR) Curves, Continuous IR - Domestic ($) and Foreign (Yen) Government Bonds, IR curves - Stochastic Spot FX, Forward FX: Ito processes for $ and Yen Investors - Black-Scholes Vanilla FX Options, Connection to Heat/Diffusion Equation - Stochastic Differential Equations with Mart...

Social Media Use and its Association with Sexual Risk and Parental Monitoring among a Primarily Hispanic Adolescent Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Romo, Dina L; Garnett, Chelsea; Younger, Alayna P; Stockwell, Melissa S; Soren, Karen; Catallozzi, Marina; Neu, Natalie

2017-08-01

In this study we assessed the association between social media (SM) use with sexual risk, and with parental monitoring among Hispanic adolescents. Self-administered anonymous survey. Urban primary care clinics. Primarily Hispanic adolescents ages 13-21 years old. Chi-square and regression analyses controlling for age and gender were used to assess associations between SM use or sexting and sexual behaviors (kissing, touching genitals, vaginal oral, and anal sex), sexual risk (≥4 lifetime partners, >1 recent partner, inconsistent condom use, and history of sexually transmitted infection diagnosis) and contraceptive use. Similar analyses were used to assess relationships between adolescent-reported parental monitoring and SM use, and sexting. Participants with frequent SM use (social networking sites or apps) had greater odds of all sexual activity. Ever sexters had greater odds of penetrative sex only (oral, vaginal, and anal sex) as well as use of hormonal contraception (except long-acting reversible contraception). Approximately half of the participants reported parental access to profiles on SM. Female participants had higher odds of parental access to online profiles and having a parental discussion of privacy settings. Those having privacy discussions had greater odds of "private" profiles on SM and lower odds of ever sexting. Frequent SM use and sexting was associated with an increase in all types of sexual behaviors; sexting alone was associated with more lifetime and recent sexual partners. Parental discussion of privacy settings was found to be protective. Providers and parents should be aware of the effect of SM use on sexual behaviors. Copyright © 2017 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Štulec

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Non-catastrophic weather risk is gaining importance as climate change becomes more pronounced and economic crisis forces companies to strengthen their cost control. Recent literature proposes weather derivatives as flexible weather risk mitigating tools. Only a handful of studies analysed the feasibility of weather derivatives in industries other than agriculture and energy. The purpose of this paper is to review available weather risk management solutions in retail, present weather derivatives as non-catastrophic weather risk management tools, empirically demonstrate the process of designing weather derivatives and assess their effectiveness as risk mitigating tools in retail. Empirical analysis is performed on beverage sales in 60 large food stores in Croatia, and performance of monthly temperature put options during the summer season is examined. For weather sensitivity analysis of sales, the method of panel regression was used. Results show that weather has a statistically significant effect on beverage sales and that weather derivatives prove to be effective in beverage sales uncertainty reduction. Their effectiveness differs between covered periods and cities.

The Derivatives as Financial Risk Management Instruments: The Case of Croatian and Slovenian Non-financial Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danijela Miloš Sprčić

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses financial risk management practices and derivative usage in large Croatian and Slovenian non-financial companies and explores if the decision to use derivatives as risk management instruments in the analysed companies is a function of several firm’s characteristics that have been proven as relevant in making financial risk management decisions. On the basis of the research results it can be concluded that forwards and swaps are by far the most important derivative instruments in both countries. Futures as representatives of standardised derivatives together with structured derivatives are more important in the Slovenian than in the Croatian companies, while exchange-traded and OTC options are unimportant means of financial risk management in both countries. A comparative analysis conducted to explore differences between risk management practices in Slovenian and Croatian companies has shown evidence that Slovenian companies use all types of derivatives, especially structured derivatives, more intensively than Croatian companies. The survey has revealed that the explored hedging rationales have little predictive power in explaining financial risk management decisions both in Croatian and Slovenian companies. The decision to use derivatives in Croatian non-financial companies is related only to the investment expenditures-to-assets ratio which controls for costly external financing hypothesis, while the decision to use derivatives in Slovenian companies is dependent only on the size of the company. It can be argued that the characteristics of the Croatian and Slovenian firms could be found in other South-eastern European countries and that findings of this research may act as a baseline from which to generalise. Therefore, the survey results analysed in this paper also suggest a broader comparison across countries in the region. The advantage of this work is that it provides an impetus for further research to move beyond the

On a true value of risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozin, Igor

2018-01-01

The paper suggests looking on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It is argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the topic...... intervals, the use of Byes rule, models of complete ignorance, hierarchical models of uncertainty, assignment of probabilities over possibility space and interpretation of derived probabilistic measures. Behavioural implications of favouring the either view are also briefly described....

An Optimization of the Risk Management using Derivatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ovidiu ŞONTEA

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This article aims to provide a process that can be used in financial risk management by resolving problems of minimizing the risk measure (VaR using derivatives products, bonds and options. This optimization problem was formulated in the hedging situation of a portfolio formed by an active and a put option on this active, respectively a bond and an option on this bond. In the first optimization problem we will obtain the coverage ratio of the optimal price for the excertion of the option which is in fact the relative cost of the option’s value. In the second optimization problem we obtained optimal exercise price for a put option which is to support a bond.

Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

Science.gov (United States)

Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

2017-12-15

The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Derivative pricing with liquidity risk: Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.

2008-01-01

We derive a theoretical asset-pricing model for derivative contracts that allows for expected liquidity and liquidity risk, and estimate this model for the market of credit default swaps (CDS). Our model extends the LCAPM of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to a setting with derivative instruments and

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Lamoureux, Christine; Molodecky, Natalie A; Lyons, Hil; Grassly, Nicholas C; Tallis, Graham

2017-05-26

The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that low circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a secretory member of the neurotrophin family that has a protective role in neurodegeneration and stress responses and a regulatory role in metabolism, predicts risk of all-cause mortality in 85-year...

THE EFFECT OF DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS ON BANK RISKS, RELEVANCE AND FAITHFUL REPRESENTATION: EVIDENCE FROM BANKS IN HUNGARY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toth Kornel

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In a continuously changing business environment accounting data have to provide useful information in order to achieve relevant and faithful representation in financial statements. Since global markets have changed radically, growing international trade means the horizons of investors and borrowers have now become global, which has increased the level of their risks. Concerning international trade and investment, one of the most important risks is uncertainty about future foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates. Changes in financial markets have increased the use of derivative instruments (such as forwards, futures, swaps, and options to hedge risk exposure worldwide, while the related accounting standards have not kept pace with those changes. Because of the complexity and variety of these instruments, reporting on derivatives faces many difficulties, since a different framework and different accounting concepts are required to present useful financial information. For these reasons the growing use of derivative financial instruments and the challenges of the global financial system have intensified and sharpened debates about whether derivative instruments increase or decrease the risk of banks, affecting faithful representation based on their financial statements and decision usefulness of the reported information. This study aims to describe the transformation of accounting concepts and its effect on fair value accounting for derivative financial instruments in the information economy. The research question of the paper is whether the advantages of fair value accounting exceed the disadvantages, especially in the case of derivatives, in reducing the uncertainty and risk associated with financial reporting. Based on this question, the purpose of the empirical research is to assess the level of different risks which banks operating in Hungary face when using derivative financial instruments and to investigate how and to what extent

Tychastic measure of viability risk

CERN Document Server

Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Dordan, Olivier

2014-01-01

This book presents a forecasting mechanism of the price intervals for deriving the SCR (solvency capital requirement) eradicating the risk during the exercise period on one hand, and measuring the risk by computing the hedging exit time function associating with smaller investments the date until which the value of the portfolio hedges the liabilities on the other. This information, summarized under the term “tychastic viability measure of risk” is an evolutionary alternative to statistical measures, when dealing with evolutions under uncertainty. The book is written by experts in the field and the target audience primarily comprises research experts and practitioners.

The use of derivatives in Slovenian non-financial firms: is financial risk already well managed?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleš Berk

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Recent research about the financial behaviour of Slovenian firms has documented enterprise risk management as being one of its weakest areas. The goal of this article is to present insights into financial risk management, i.e. into the extent of the use of derivatives in the largest Slovenian firms and the related practices. The resultsare confronted with the same types of characteristics of US and German firms (although being much larger revealed in comparable studies. These firms provide relevant benchmarks for assessing the development gap since they operate in more advanced financial environments and are therefore expected to have much morerefined approaches to the use of derivatives than Slovenian firms. A survey points to the much smaller extent of the use of derivatives by Slovenian firms. There is a substantial gap, especially in the area of risk management policies (e.g. documentation, reporting, counterparty risk, valuation etc..

Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

CERN Document Server

Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2016-01-01

This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

Quantifying Correlation Uncertainty Risk in Credit Derivatives Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin Turfus

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We propose a simple but practical methodology for the quantification of correlation risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and credit valuation adjustment (CVA, where the correlation between rates and credit is often uncertain or unmodelled. We take the rates model to be Hull–White (normal and the credit model to be Black–Karasinski (lognormal. We summarise recent work furnishing highly accurate analytic pricing formulae for credit default swaps (CDS including with defaultable Libor flows, extending this to the situation where they are capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive therefrom explicit expressions showing how the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s can be captured in analytic formulae that are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we crucially take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled parameters.

Global Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul

approaches to dealing in the global business environment." - Sharon Brown-Hruska, Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA. "This comprehensive survey of modern risk management using derivative securities is a fine demonstration of the practical relevance of modern derivatives theory to risk......" provides comprehensive coverage of different types of derivatives, including exchange traded contracts and over-the-counter instruments as well as real options. There is an equal emphasis on the practical application of derivatives and their actual uses in business transactions and corporate risk...... management situations. Its key features include: derivatives are introduced in a global market perspective; describes major derivative pricing models for practical use, extending these principles to valuation of real options; practical applications of derivative instruments are richly illustrated...

Financial risk and derivatives a special issue of the geneva papers on risk and insurance theory

CERN Document Server

Subrahmanyam, Marti

1996-01-01

Financial Risk and Derivatives provides an excellent illustration of the links that have developed in recent years between the theory of finance on one hand and insurance economics and actuarial science on the other. Advances in contingent claims analysis and developments in the academic and practical literature dealing with the management of financial risks reflect the close relationships between insurance and innovations in finance. The book represents an overview of the present state of the art in theoretical research dealing with financial issues of significance for insurance science. It will hopefully provide an impetus to further developments in applied insurance research.

Nitric oxide circulates in mammalian plasma primarily as an S-nitroso adduct of serum albumin.

Science.gov (United States)

Stamler, J S; Jaraki, O; Osborne, J; Simon, D I; Keaney, J; Vita, J; Singel, D; Valeri, C R; Loscalzo, J

1992-01-01

We have recently shown that nitric oxide or authentic endothelium-derived relaxing factor generated in a biologic system reacts in the presence of specific protein thiols to form S-nitrosoprotein derivatives that have endothelium-derived relaxing factor-like properties. The single free cysteine of serum albumin, Cys-34, is particularly reactive toward nitrogen oxides (most likely nitrosonium ion) under physiologic conditions, primarily because of its anomalously low pK; given its abundance in plasma, where it accounts for approximately 0.5 mM thiol, we hypothesized that this plasma protein serves as a reservoir for nitric oxide produced by the endothelial cell. To test this hypothesis, we developed a methodology, which involves UV photolytic cleavage of the S--NO bond before reaction with ozone for chemiluminescence detection, with which to measure free nitric oxide, S-nitrosothiols, and S-nitrosoproteins in biologic systems. We found that human plasma contains approximately 7 microM S-nitrosothiols, of which 96% are S-nitrosoproteins, 82% of which is accounted for by S-nitroso-serum albumin. By contrast, plasma levels of free nitric oxide are only in the 3-nM range. In rabbits, plasma S-nitrosothiols are present at approximately 1 microM; 60 min after administration of NG-monomethyl-L-arginine at 50 mg/ml, a selective and potent inhibitor of nitric oxide synthetases, S-nitrosothiols decreased by approximately 40% (greater than 95% of which were accounted for by S-nitrosoproteins, and approximately 80% of which was S-nitroso-serum albumin); this decrease was accompanied by a concomitant increase in mean arterial blood pressure of 22%. These data suggest that naturally produced nitric oxide circulates in plasma primarily complexed in S-nitrosothiol species, principal among which is S-nitroso-serum albumin. This abundant, relatively long-lived adduct likely serves as a reservoir with which plasma levels of highly reactive, short-lived free nitric oxide can be

Towards a realistic estimation for the risk to the public derived from a nuclear accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carrillo, D; Diaz de la Cruz, F.

1985-01-01

The controversy arised during the last decade around civil uses of nuclear energy has been focalized, principally, in its questionability as energetic resource, basing on the safety aspects and consequently on the risk magnitude associated with a nuclear accident, from which could arise significative releases of radioactivity to the environment. The reactor safety studies developed in the last decade overestimated, in some orders of magnitude, the radiological consequences, and therefore the nuclear risk derived from the operation of such installations. In this moment, after the lessons learned from Three Mile Island accident and the studies and researches, starting afterwards, it is considered suitable to develop a comparison of the above mentioned risk which allows an approach between its real value and that one derived from social perception.

Project Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jr., R. F. Miles

1995-01-01

Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score.

Science.gov (United States)

Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R

2017-06-01

To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

Predators or prey? Spatio-temporal discrimination of human-derived risk by brown bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Ordiz, Andrés; Støen, Ole-Gunnar; Delibes, Miguel; Swenson, Jon E

2011-05-01

Prey usually adjust anti-predator behavior to subtle variations in perceived risk. However, it is not clear whether adult large carnivores that are virtually free of natural predation adjust their behavior to subtle variations in human-derived risk, even when living in human-dominated landscapes. As a model, we studied resting-site selection by a large carnivore, the brown bear (Ursus arctos), under different spatial and temporal levels of human activity. We quantified horizontal and canopy cover at 440 bear beds and 439 random sites at different distances from human settlements, seasons, and times of the day. We hypothesized that beds would be more concealed than random sites and that beds would be more concealed in relation to human-derived risk. Although human densities in Scandinavia are the lowest within bear ranges in Western Europe, we found an effect of human activity; bears chose beds with higher horizontal and canopy cover during the day (0700-1900 hours), especially when resting closer to human settlements, than at night (2200-0600 hours). In summer/fall (the berry season), with more intensive and dispersed human activity, including hunting, bears rested further from human settlements during the day than in spring (pre-berry season). Additionally, day beds in the summer/fall were the most concealed. Large carnivores often avoid humans at a landscape scale, but total avoidance in human-dominated areas is not possible. Apparently, bears adjust their behavior to avoid human encounters, which resembles the way prey avoid their predators. Bears responded to fine-scale variations in human-derived risk, both on a seasonal and a daily basis.

Towards a realistic estimation for the risk to the public derived from a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, D.; Diaz de la Cruz, F.

1985-01-01

The controversy arised during the last decade around civil uses of nuclear energy has been focalized, principally, in its questionability as energetic resource, basing on the safety aspects and consequently on the risk magnitude associated with a nuclear accident, from which could arise significative releases of radioactivity to the environment. The reactor safety studies developed in the last decade overestimated, in some orders of magnitude, the radiological consequences, and therefore the nuclear risk derived from the operation of such installations. In this moment, after the lessons learned from Three Mile Island accident and the studies and researches, starting afterwards, it is considered suitable to develop a comparison of the above mentioned risk which allows an approach between its real value and that one derived from social perception. (author)

Interest rate derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenstrup, Mikkel

This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained essays on valuation of interest rate derivatives. In particular derivatives related to management of interest rate risk care are considered.......This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained essays on valuation of interest rate derivatives. In particular derivatives related to management of interest rate risk care are considered....

A suggested approach for deriving risk criteria in radiation protection and land use planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cameron, R.F.; Corran, E.R.

1994-01-01

In radiation protection, tolerability has been determined by setting a limit on the dose received recognizing that there is an unavoidable background level of radiation to which we are all exposed. This dose is sometimes associated with a cancer fatality coefficient to convert the dose to a probability of fatality, but it is recognised that fatality is not immediate but arises (if at all) many years after the exposure. In other hazardous industry, tolerability is based on satisfying annual fatality risk limits for the number of immediate fatalities. These limits vary with the type of land use proposed. This raises the questions of how such risks should be compared and, in particular, whether there is a basis for common risk measures to be derived. Unless this can be done, inappropriate comparisons will continue to be made. In this paper, a method is suggested for deriving measures of risk to individuals and to communities, both for activities involving radiation exposure and for accidents with other hazardous materials. The method is based on taking account of the difference between continuing releases and accidental transient releases. It is argued that the continuous releases, the lifetime risk is the most appropriate parameter both for radiation and hazardous material exposure. For accident situations both individual and societal risk curves can be drawn which take account of the difference between acute and latent fatalities. Some problems associated with societal risk curves are discussed and suggestions for their use given. 11 refs., 3 figs

The Omitted Factor in Risk Management: Corporate Foreign Debt as an Alternative to Currency Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

Empirical surveys on exchange rate risk management in non-financial companies focus on the use of currency derivatives while omitting the use of corporate debt denominated in foreign currency ("foreign debt") even though the latter in risk management terms is identical to one or a series of forward...

Association of meat intake and meat-derived mutagen exposure with the risk of colorectal polyps by histologic type

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Zhenming; Shrubsole, Martha J.; Smalley, Walter E.; Wu, Huiyun; Chen, Zhi; Shyr, Yu; Ness, Reid M.; Zheng, Wei

2011-01-01

Background The association of meat intake and meat-derived mutagens with colorectal tumor risk remains unclear. We evaluated this hypothesis in a large colonoscopy-based case-control study. Methods Included in the study were 2,543 polyp patients [(1,881 with adenomas, and 622 with hyperplastic polyp (HPP)] and 3,764 polyp-free controls. Surveys obtained information about meat intake by cooking methods and doneness levels plus other suspected or known risk factors for colorectal tumors. Unconditional logistic regression was used to derive odds ratios (ORs) after adjusting for potential confounders. Results High intake of red meat and processed meat (P-trend meat cooked using high-temperature cooking methods (P-trend ≤ 0.01), was associated with an elevated risk for colorectal polyps. A significant positive association between exposures to meat-derived heterocyclic amines and risk of polyps was found for both adenomas and hyperplastic polyps. Furthermore, the positive association with red-meat intake and heterocyclic amine exposure was stronger for multiple adenomas than single adenoma and serrated than non-serrated adenomas. Conclusion This study supports a role for red meat and meat-derived mutagen exposure in the development of colorectal tumor. PMID:21803984

Dietary patterns derived with multiple methods from food diaries and breast cancer risk in the UK Dietary Cohort Consortium

Science.gov (United States)

Pot, Gerda K; Stephen, Alison M; Dahm, Christina C; Key, Timothy J; Cairns, Benjamin J; Burley, Victoria J; Cade, Janet E; Greenwood, Darren C; Keogh, Ruth H; Bhaniani, Amit; McTaggart, Alison; Lentjes, Marleen AH; Mishra, Gita; Brunner, Eric J; Khaw, Kay Tee

2015-01-01

Background/ Objectives In spite of several studies relating dietary patterns to breast cancer risk, evidence so far remains inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate associations of dietary patterns derived with three different methods with breast cancer risk. Subjects/ Methods The Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), principal components analyses (PCA) and reduced rank regression (RRR) were used to derive dietary patterns in a case-control study of 610 breast cancer cases and 1891 matched controls within 4 UK cohort studies. Dietary intakes were collected prospectively using 4-to 7-day food diaries and resulting food consumption data were grouped into 42 food groups. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations between pattern scores and breast cancer risk adjusting for relevant covariates. A separate model was fitted for post-menopausal women only. Results The MDS was not associated with breast cancer risk (OR comparing 1st tertile with 3rd 1.20 (95% CI 0.92; 1.56)), nor the first PCA-derived dietary pattern, explaining 2.7% of variation of diet and characterized by cheese, crisps and savoury snacks, legumes, nuts and seeds (OR 1.18 (95% CI 0.91; 1.53)). The first RRR-derived pattern, a ‘high-alcohol’ pattern, was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.00; 1.62), which was most pronounced in post-menopausal women (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.08; 1.98). Conclusions A ‘high-alcohol’ dietary pattern derived with RRR was associated with an increased breast cancer risk; no evidence of associations of other dietary patterns with breast cancer risk was observed in this study. PMID:25052230

Using financial derivatives to hedge against currency risk : British large and medium-sized firms

OpenAIRE

Nguyen, My

2012-01-01

Nowadays, as a growing number of firms strive to conduct their business at international market place, currency risk has increasingly raised concern among financial mangers due to its substantial impact on companies’ financial results. Financial derivative instruments (Forward, Futures, Options, Swaps) are utilized as efficient hedging mechanisms against such an exchange rate exposure. The main objective of this study is to examine whether derivatives play a primary role in mitigating an adve...

Insurance against weather risk : use of heating degree-days from non-local stations for weather derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

2003-01-01

Weather derivatives enable policy-holders to safeguard themselves against extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the risk transfer is determined by the spatial risk basis, which is the stochastic dependency of the local weather outcome being insured and the outcome of

Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

2017-03-28

To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

Proarrhythmia risk prediction using human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamazaki, Daiju; Kitaguchi, Takashi; Ishimura, Masakazu; Taniguchi, Tomohiko; Yamanishi, Atsuhiro; Saji, Daisuke; Takahashi, Etsushi; Oguchi, Masao; Moriyama, Yuta; Maeda, Sanae; Miyamoto, Kaori; Morimura, Kaoru; Ohnaka, Hiroki; Tashibu, Hiroyuki; Sekino, Yuko; Miyamoto, Norimasa; Kanda, Yasunari

2018-04-01

Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs) are expected to become a useful tool for proarrhythmia risk prediction in the non-clinical drug development phase. Several features including electrophysiological properties, ion channel expression profile and drug responses were investigated using commercially available hiPSC-CMs, such as iCell-CMs and Cor.4U-CMs. Although drug-induced arrhythmia has been extensively examined by microelectrode array (MEA) assays in iCell-CMs, it has not been fully understood an availability of Cor.4U-CMs for proarrhythmia risk. Here, we evaluated the predictivity of proarrhythmia risk using Cor.4U-CMs. MEA assay revealed linear regression between inter-spike interval and field potential duration (FPD). The hERG inhibitor E-4031 induced reverse-use dependent FPD prolongation. We next evaluated the proarrhythmia risk prediction by a two-dimensional map, which we have previously proposed. We determined the relative torsade de pointes risk score, based on the extent of FPD with Fridericia's correction (FPDcF) change and early afterdepolarization occurrence, and calculated the margins normalized to free effective therapeutic plasma concentrations. The drugs were classified into three risk groups using the two-dimensional map. This risk-categorization system showed high concordance with the torsadogenic information obtained by a public database CredibleMeds. Taken together, these results indicate that Cor.4U-CMs can be used for drug-induced proarrhythmia risk prediction. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Derivatives Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stankovska Aleksandra

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Globalization of financial markets led to the enormous growth of volume and diversification of financial transactions. Financial derivatives were the basic elements of this growth. Derivatives play a useful and important role in hedging and risk management, but they also pose several dangers to the stability of financial markets and thereby the overall economy. Derivatives are used to hedge and speculate the risk associated with commerce and finance.

Deriving Biomonitoring Equivalents for selected E- and P-series glycol ethers for public health risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Poet, Torka; Ball, Nicholas; Hays, Sean M

2016-01-01

Glycol ethers are a widely used class of solvents that may lead to both workplace and general population exposures. Biomonitoring studies are available that have quantified glycol ethers or their metabolites in blood and/or urine amongst exposed populations. These biomonitoring levels indicate exposures to the glycol ethers, but do not by themselves indicate a health hazard risk. Biomonitoring Equivalents (BEs) have been created to provide the ability to interpret human biomonitoring data in a public health risk context. The BE is defined as the concentration of a chemical or metabolite in a biological fluid (blood or urine) that is consistent with exposures at a regulatory derived safe exposure limit, such as a tolerable daily intake (TDI). In this exercise, we derived BEs for general population exposures for selected E- and P-series glycol ethers based on their respective derived no effect levels (DNELs). Selected DNELs have been derived as part of respective Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Regulation of Chemicals (REACh) regulation dossiers in the EU. The BEs derived here are unique in the sense that they are the first BEs derived for urinary excretion of compounds following inhalation exposures. The urinary mass excretion fractions (Fue) of the acetic acid metabolites for the E-series GEs range from approximately 0.2 to 0.7. The Fues for the excretion of the parent P-series GEs range from approximately 0.1 to 0.2, with the exception of propylene glycol methyl ether and its acetate (Fue = 0.004). Despite the narrow range of Fues, the BEs exhibit a larger range, resulting from the larger range in DNELs across GEs. The BEs derived here can be used to interpret human biomonitoring data for inhalation exposures to GEs amongst the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Credit derivatives in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Romain Rancière

2002-01-01

Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

Energy-related risk in the U.S.A. in the year 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inhaber, H.; King, S.

1986-01-01

The present risk to health of energy systems has been the subject of much debate in recent years. This paper extrapolates some present results on energy-related risk to the year 2020. It finds that if today's trends continue, the largest sources of risk will be due to the changeover from large to small cars, radon buildup in better-sealed buildings and the entire coal (and synthetic fuel) cycle. Other sources of risk, such as the larger proportion of nuclear and solar energy three or four decades from now, are about an order of magnitude lower than the aforementioned three. Because of the many uncertainties in the calculations, the results should be viewed as primarily qualitative, although derived quantitatively. However, they can be used as a guide by policymakers and research planners to produce the greatest risk reduction per unit effort. (author)

Emergence of Commodity Derivatives as Defensive Instrument in Portfolio Risk Hedging: A Case of Indian Commodity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singhal Shelly

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically examines whether commodity derivatives can be used as an alternative investment asset in India where commodity markets are at emerging state and provides the same diversification benefit as they provide in developed commodity markets. In India only commodity futures are prevalent so various commodity indices representing various sectors has been used in the study. Diversification aspect of commodity derivatives has been tested initially by using correlation analysis. Compounded Daily Growth rate and Relative Standard deviation has been used as a measure of calculating risk and return of daily data of SENSEX, BOND and four Commodity Indices (MCX Comdex, MCX AGRI, MCX Metal, MCX Energy. Markowitz Efficient Frontier theory has been used to calculate portfolio risk return and Sharpe risk adjusted ratio has been used to evaluate the various portfolios. Optimal portfolio has been obtained for the combination of equity, bond and commodity and overall results of the study indicate that an investor who is risk averse will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Energy whereas an investor who gets utility by taking more risk for more returns will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Metal. Investor having inclination towards moderate risk return would tend to invest in MCX AGRI along with SENSEX and BOND.

Decision support for utility environmental risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

29 CFR 780.607 - “Primarily employed” in agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false âPrimarily employedâ in agriculture. 780.607 Section 780... AGRICULTURE, PROCESSING OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AND RELATED SUBJECTS UNDER THE FAIR LABOR STANDARDS ACT Employment in Agriculture and Livestock Auction Operations Under the Section 13(b)(13) Exemption Requirements...

Survey on the Use of Derivatives in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I Wayan Nuka Lantara

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This paper provides survey evidence on the use of derivatives among firms listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The finding shows that the participation rate in the use of derivatives is 28.8 percent, much lower than those found in developed countries. For the derivatives non-users, insignificant risk exposure is reported as the most important rationale for not using derivatives. Consumer goods industry constitutes the largest proportion of firms using derivatives. The majority of respondents utilize derivatives to hedge against financial risks rather than to speculate. Foreign currency risk and interest rate risk are the most important types of risks faced with by respondents. Using the Chi-square and the Fisher’s exact tests, the result corroborates the size effect hypothesis, where the use of derivatives is more popular among large firms than small firms. A SURVEY ON THE USE OF DERIVATIVES IN INDONESIA Keywords: derivatives; hedging; risk management

A novel phthalimide derivative, TC11, has preclinical effects on high-risk myeloma cells and osteoclasts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maiko Matsushita

Full Text Available Despite the recent advances in the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM, MM patients with high-risk cytogenetic changes such as t(4;14 translocation or deletion of chromosome 17 still have extremely poor prognoses. With the goal of helping these high-risk MM patients, we previously developed a novel phthalimide derivative, TC11. Here we report the further characterization of TC11 including anti-myeloma effects in vitro and in vivo, a pharmacokinetic study in mice, and anti-osteoclastogenic activity. Intraperitoneal injections of TC11 significantly delayed the growth of subcutaneous tumors in human myeloma-bearing SCID mice. Immunohistochemical analyses showed that TC11 induced apoptosis of MM cells in vivo. In the pharmacokinetic analyses, the Cmax was 2.1 μM at 1 h after the injection of TC11, with 1.2 h as the half-life. TC11 significantly inhibited the differentiation and function of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP-positive multinucleated osteoclasts in mouse osteoclast cultures using M-CSF and RANKL. We also revealed that TC11 induced the apoptosis of myeloma cells accompanied by α-tubulin fragmentation. In addition, TC11 and lenalidomide, another phthalimide derivative, directly bound to nucleophosmin 1 (NPM1, whose role in MM is unknown. Thus, through multiple molecular interactions, TC11 is a potentially effective drug for high-risk MM patients with bone lesions. The present results suggest the possibility of the further development of novel thalidomide derivatives by drug designing.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

Science.gov (United States)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing

Safety and tolerability of cell culture-derived and egg-derived trivalent influenza vaccines in 3 to children and adolescents at risk of influenza-related complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Diez-Domingo, Javier; de Martino, Maurizio; Lopez, Jose Garcia-Sicilia; Zuccotti, Gian Vincenzo; Icardi, Giancarlo; Villani, Alberto; Moreno-Perez, David; Hernández, María Méndez; Aldeán, Javier Álvarez; Mateen, Ahmed Abdul; Enweonye, Igwebuike; de Rooij, Richard; Chandra, Richa

2016-08-01

This descriptive, non-comparative, phase III study evaluated the safety and tolerability of cell culture-derived (TIVc) and egg-derived (TIV) seasonal influenza vaccines in children at risk of influenza-related complications. Four hundred and thirty subjects were randomized 2:1 to TIVc or TIV. Subjects aged 3 to vaccinated, n=89) or two doses (if not previously vaccinated, n=124) of the study vaccines; the 9 to vaccination; safety was monitored for 6 months. After any vaccination, the most frequently reported solicited local adverse event (AE) was tenderness/pain (TIVc 44%, 66%, 53% and TIV 56%, 51%, 65% in the age groups 3 to vaccine-related serious AEs were noted. New onset of chronic disease was reported in ≤1% of subjects. TIVc and TIV had acceptable tolerability and similar safety profiles in at-risk children (NCT01998477). Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Decision principles derived from risk measures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Kaas, R.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first "level", quantifying the risk in the

Guidance document on the derivation of maximum permissible risk levels for human intake of soil contaminants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen PJCM; Speijers GJA; CSR

1997-01-01

This report contains a basic step-to-step description of the procedure followed in the derivation of the human-toxicological Maximum Permissible Risk (MPR ; in Dutch: Maximum Toelaatbaar Risico, MTR) for soil contaminants. In recent years this method has been applied for a large number of compounds

Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.

1994-01-01

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities

Development of risk-based computer models for deriving criteria on residual radioactivity and recycling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shih-Yew

1995-01-01

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is developing multimedia environmental pathway and health risk computer models to assess radiological risks to human health and to derive cleanup guidelines for environmental restoration, decommissioning, and recycling activities. These models are based on the existing RESRAD code, although each has a separate design and serves different objectives. Two such codes are RESRAD-BUILD and RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC. The RESRAD code was originally developed to implement the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) residual radioactive materials guidelines for contaminated soils. RESRAD has been successfully used by DOE and its contractors to assess health risks and develop cleanup criteria for several sites selected for cleanup or restoration programs. RESRAD-BUILD analyzes human health risks from radioactive releases during decommissioning or rehabilitation of contaminated buildings. Risks to workers are assessed for dismantling activities; risks to the public are assessed for occupancy. RESRAD-BUILD is based on a room compartmental model analyzing the effects on room air quality of contaminant emission and resuspension (as well as radon emanation), the external radiation pathway, and other exposure pathways. RESRAD-PROBABILISTIC, currently under development, is intended to perform uncertainty analysis for RESRAD by using the Monte Carlo approach based on the Latin-Hypercube sampling scheme. The codes being developed at ANL are tailored to meet a specific objective of human health risk assessment and require specific parameter definition and data gathering. The combined capabilities of these codes satisfy various risk assessment requirements in environmental restoration and remediation activities. (author)

Specific cell-derived microvesicles: Linking endothelial function to carotid artery intima-media thickness in low cardiovascular risk menopausal women.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Virginia M; Lahr, Brian D; Bailey, Kent R; Hodis, Howard N; Mulvagh, Sharon L; Jayachandran, Muthuvel

2016-03-01

Decreases in endothelial function measured by reactive hyperemic index (RHI) correlated with increases in carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) in recently menopausal women with a low risk cardiovascular profile. Factors linking this association are unknown. Assess, longitudinally, markers of platelet activation and cell-derived, blood-borne microvesicles (MV) in relationship to RHI and CIMT in asymptomatic, low risk menopausal women. RHI by digital pulse tonometry (n = 93), CIMT by ultrasound (n = 113), measures of platelet activation and specific cell-derived, blood-borne MV were evaluated in women throughout the Kronos Early Estrogen Prevention Study (KEEPS) at Mayo Clinic. CIMT, but not RHI, increased significantly over 4 years. The average change in CIMT correlated significantly with the average follow-up values of MV positive for common leukocyte antigen [CD45; ρ = 0.285 (P = 0.002)] and VCAM-1 [ρ = 0.270 (P = 0.0040)]. Using principal components analysis (PC) on the aggregate set of average follow-up measures, the first derived PC representing numbers of MV positive for markers of vascular endothelium, inflammatory cells (leukocyte and monocytes), pro-coagulant (tissue factor), and cell adhesion molecules (ICAM-1 and VCAM-1) associated with changes in RHI and CIMT. Changes in RHI associated with another PC defined by measures of platelet activation (dense granular ATP secretion, surface expression of P-selectin and fibrinogen receptors). MV derived from activated endothelial and inflammatory cells, and those expressing cell adhesion and pro-coagulant molecules may reflect early vascular dysfunction in low risk menopausal women. Assays of MV as non-conventional measures to assess cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic women remain to be developed. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

78 FR 32191 - Derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-29

... rate risk. This proposed rule applies to federal credit unions and any federally insured, state... risk to the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF). \\1\\ A derivative is an instrument... degrees of risk to a credit union. Accordingly, this risk calls for a more robust asset/ liability...

Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.

Science.gov (United States)

Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W

2011-01-01

Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Risk factors associated with bacterial growth in derivative systems from cerebrospinal liquid in pediatric patients].

Science.gov (United States)

de Jesús Vargas-Lares, José; Andrade-Aguilera, Angélica Rocío; Díaz-Peña, Rafael; Barrera de León, Juan Carlos

2015-01-01

To determine risk factors associated with bacterial growth in systems derived from cerebrospinal fluid in pediatric patients. Case and controls study from January to December 2012, in patients aged <16 years who were carriers of hydrocephalus and who required placement or replacement of derivative system. Cases were considered as children with cultures with bacterial growth and controls with negative bacterial growth. Inferential statistics with Chi-squared and Mann-Whitney U tests. Association of risk with odds ratio. We reviewed 746 registries, cases n=99 (13%) and controls n=647 (87%). Masculine gender 58 (57%) vs. feminine gender 297 (46%) (p=0.530). Age of cases: median, five months and controls, one year (p=0.02). Median weight, 7 vs. 10 kg (p=0.634). Surgical interventions: median n=2 (range, 1-8) vs. n=1 (range, 1-7). Infection rate, 13.2%. Main etiology ductal stenosis, n=29 (29%) vs. n=50 (23%) (p=0.530). Non-communicating, n=50 (51%) vs. 396 (61%) (p=0.456). Predominant microorganisms: enterobacteria, pseudomonas, and enterococcus. Non-use of iodized dressing OR=2.6 (range, 1.8-4.3), use of connector OR=6.8 (range, 1.9-24.0), System replacement OR=2.0 (range, 1.3-3.1), assistant without surgical facemask OR=9.7 (range, 2.3-42.0). Being a breastfeeding infant, of low weight, non-application of iodized dressing, use of connector, previous derivation, and lack of adherence to aseptic technique were all factors associated with ependymitis.

Pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosén, Erik; Sander, Ulrich

2009-05-01

Knowledge of the amount of violence tolerated by the human body is essential when developing and implementing pedestrian safety strategies. When estimating the potential benefits of new countermeasures, the pedestrian fatality risk as a function of impact speed is of particular importance. Although this function has been analysed previously, we state that a proper understanding does not exist. Based on the largest in-depth, pedestrian accident study undertaken to date, we derive an improved risk function for adult pedestrians hit by the front of passenger cars. Our results show far lower fatality risks than generally reported in the traffic safety literature. This discrepancy is primarily explained by sample bias towards severe injury accidents in earlier studies. Nevertheless, a strong dependence on impact speed is found, with the fatality risk at 50 km/h being more than twice as high as the risk at 40 km/h and more than five times higher than the risk at 30 km/h. Our findings should have important implications for the development of pedestrian accident countermeasures worldwide. In particular, the scope of future pedestrian safety policies and research should be broadened to include accidents with impact speeds exceeding 50 km/h.

Reincarceration Risk Among Men with Mental Illnesses Leaving Prison: A Risk Environment Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrenger, Stacey L; Draine, Jeffrey; Angell, Beth; Herman, Daniel

2017-11-01

Reentry interventions for persons with mental illness leaving prison have consisted primarily of linkage to mental health services and have produced mixed results on psychiatric and criminal recidivism. These interventions primarily focus on intra-individual risk factors. However, social and environmental factors may also increase risk of reincarceration by constraining choices and pro-social opportunities for community reintegration upon release from prison. In order to add to the knowledge base on understanding reincarceration risk for men with mental illnesses leaving prison, we examined interpersonal and environmental factors that exposed men to heightened risk for reincarceration. As part of a larger study examining the effectiveness of Critical Time Intervention for men with mental illness leaving prison, in-depth interviews were conducted with 28 men within 6 months of release from prison. Policies and practices at local and state levels, community conditions, and interpersonal obligation and conflict were identified as increasing risk for reincarceration.

17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... charges for market and credit risk pursuant to this Appendix F in lieu of computing securities haircuts...)(2)(vi). Credit Risk (d) The capital charge for credit risk arising from an OTC derivatives dealer's... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional market and credit...

Transmission of viral hepatitis by blood and blood derivatives: current risks, past heritage.

Science.gov (United States)

Prati, D

2002-11-01

For more than 40 years in the history of transfusion medicine, transmission of viral hepatitis from infected donors to recipients has been a frequent and serious adverse effect of the administration of blood components and plasma derivatives. This epidemic is now over, at least in developed and resource-rich countries. Hence, the attention of clinicians and investigators now focuses mainly on the measures to reduce the residual risk, on the possible emergence of novel or undiscovered agents causing post-transfusion hepatitis, and on the long-term outcome of patients who became infected more than ten years ago. The present article reviews these issues.

Disgust sensitivity is primarily associated with purity-based moral judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagemans, Fieke M A; Brandt, Mark J; Zeelenberg, Marcel

2018-03-01

Individual differences in disgust sensitivity are associated with a range of judgments and attitudes related to the moral domain. Some perspectives suggest that the association between disgust sensitivity and moral judgments will be equally strong across all moral domains (i.e., purity, authority, loyalty, care, fairness, and liberty). Other perspectives predict that disgust sensitivity is primarily associated with judgments of specific moral domains (e.g., primarily purity). However, no study has systematically tested if disgust sensitivity is associated with moral judgments of the purity domain specifically, more generally to moral judgments of the binding moral domains, or to moral judgments of all of the moral domains equally. Across 5 studies (total N = 1,104), we find consistent evidence for the notion that disgust sensitivity relates more strongly to moral condemnation of purity-based transgressions (meta-analytic r = .40) than to moral condemnation of transgressions of any of the other domains (range meta-analytic rs: .07-.27). Our findings are in line with predictions from Moral Foundations Theory, which predicts that personality characteristics like disgust sensitivity make people more sensitive to a certain set of moral issues. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

La copertura dei rischi finanziari nelle imprese non finanziarie italiane attraverso gli strumenti derivati (The Hedging of Financial Risks Using Derivatives by Italian Non-financial Firms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gianluca Bison

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the use of derivatives by Italian non-financial firms, in order to analyse existing theories of hedging behaviour, and provides empirical evidence on a potential differentiation of determinants of derivative use over time. Univariate and multivariate analyses show that the determinants of derivative use reveal marked differences when compared in the different years, so they may change over time. In general, we find that the most determinant variable is foreign sales, and analysis therefore suggests the hypothesis that exposure to exchange rate risk is the strongest determinant in derivative use. Interest rate risk exposure seems to be less relevant. Moreover, from 1997, another variable proves determinant, firm size, which suggests that economies of scale could also be a key variable in derivative use. With respect to financial distress cost models, tax and agency cost theories, the results are mixed.           JEL Codes: G11, G31, G32, F31Keywords: Financial Risk, Firm, Hedging        

Derivatives in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Dubravko Mihaljek; Frank Packer

2010-01-01

Turnover of derivatives has grown more rapidly in emerging markets than in developed countries. Foreign exchange derivatives are the most commonly traded of all risk categories, with increasingly frequent turnover in emerging market currencies and a growing share of cross-border transactions. As the global reach of the financial centres in emerging Asia has expanded, the offshore trading of many emerging market currency derivatives has risen as well. Growth in derivatives turnover is positive...

Issues raised in the limitation, control and measurement of radiation risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennis, J.A.

1989-01-01

Over the past few years a consistent set of quantities for ionising radiation measurements in radiological protection have been defined. The efforts being made by those concerned with radiation dosimetry to ensure the universal adoption and use of these quantities are now threatened by further developments in risk concepts. The most serious threats arise from changed perceptions about the quality factors appropriate for different radiations due to improved biological information about relative biological effectiveness, and the increased importance to be given to the cancer risk estimates derived from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors following the revised dose estimates. A change in the basis of quality factor specification will require careful consideration if it is not to produce further problems in obtaining agreement on the conceptual basis for radiological protection metrology. The change is primarily for adoption in the calculation of the risk quantity, effective dose equivalent. Some of the possible options for taking account of the change in regard to the measurement quantities are examined. (author)

Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

2015-01-01

The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

Incidence of diseases primarily affecting the skin by age group: population-based epidemiologic study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and comparison with age-specific incidence rates worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Wessman, Laurel L; Andersen, Louise K; Davis, Mark D P

2018-01-29

Understanding the effects of age on the epidemiology of diseases primarily affecting the skin is important to the practice of dermatology, both for proper allocation of resources and for optimal patient-centered care. To fully appreciate the effect that age may have on the population-based calculations of incidence of diseases primarily affecting the skin in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and worldwide, we performed a review of all relevant Rochester Epidemiology Project-published data and compared them to similar reports in the worldwide English literature. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, population-based epidemiologic studies have been performed to estimate the incidence of specific skin diseases over the past 50 years. In older persons (>65 years), nonmelanoma skin cancer, lentigo maligna, herpes zoster, delusional infestation, venous stasis syndrome, venous ulcer, and burning mouth syndrome were more commonly diagnosed. In those younger than 65 years, atypical nevi, psoriatic arthritis, pityriasis rosea, herpes progenitalis, genital warts, alopecia areata, hidradenitis suppurativa, infantile hemangioma, Behçet's disease, and sarcoidosis (isolated cutaneous, with sarcoidosis-specific cutaneous lesions and with erythema nodosum) had a higher incidence. Many of the incidence rates by age group of diseases primarily affecting the skin derived from the Rochester Epidemiology Project were similar to those reported elsewhere. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

Primarily Experimental Results for a W Wire Array Z Pinch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuai Bin; Aici, Qiu; Wang Liangping; Zeng Zhengzhong; Wang Wensheng; Cong Peitian; Gai Tongyang; Wei Fuli; Guo Ning; Zhang Zhong

2006-01-01

Primarily experimental results are given for a W wire array Z pinch imploded with up to 2 MA in 100 ns on a Qiangguang-I pulsed power generator. The configuration and parameters of the generator, the W wire array load assembly and the diagnostic system for the experiment are described. The total X-ray energy has been obtained with a averaged power of X-ray radiation of 1.28 TW

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Review of radon and lung cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samet, J.M.; Hornung, R.W.

1990-01-01

Radon, a long-established cause of lung cancer in uranium and other underground miners, has recently emerged as a potentially important cause of lung cancer in the general population. The evidence for widespread exposure of the population to radon and the well-documented excess of lung cancer among underground miners exposed to radon decay products have raised concern that exposure to radon progeny might also be a cause of lung cancer in the general population. To date, epidemiological data on the lung cancer risk associated with environmental exposure to radon have been limited. Consequently, the lung cancer hazard posed by radon exposure in indoor air has been addressed primarily through risk estimation procedures. The quantitative risks of lung cancer have been estimated using exposure-response relations derived from the epidemiological investigations of uranium and other underground miners. We review five of the more informative studies of miners and recent risk projection models for excess lung cancer associated with radon. The principal models differ substantially in their underlying assumptions and consequently in the resulting risk projections. The resulting diversity illustrates the substantial uncertainty that remains concerning the most appropriate model of the temporal pattern of radon-related lung cancer. Animal experiments, further follow-up of the miner cohorts, and well-designed epidemiological studies of indoor exposure should reduce this uncertainty. 18 references

Derivatives in energy project finance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spencer, Lloyd

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on risk management of merchant power generation projects and describes project finance as balancing risk and reward over time. The historical background to risk management is traced, and the case for derivatives in energy project finance is put forward with the hedging of forward output, and forwards and power purchase agreements discussed. Current and prospective usage, and the implementation issues of market liquidity, margin calls, letters of credit, derivative counterparty credit risk, and accounting policy are considered. A detailed example of a gas-fired plant in the US is presented with details given of the distribution of project earnings before tax. Oil field operating cashflows are examined, with reserved flow models, leverage effects, and price hedging addressed

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Multi-Province Listeriosis Outbreak Linked to Contaminated Deli Meat Consumed Primarily in Institutional Settings, Canada, 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Andrea; Farber, Jeffrey M; Nadon, Céline; Sharma, Davendra; Whitfield, Yvonne; Gaulin, Colette; Galanis, Eleni; Bekal, Sadjia; Flint, James; Tschetter, Lorelee; Pagotto, Franco; Lee, Brenda; Jamieson, Fred; Badiani, Tina; MacDonald, Diane; Ellis, Andrea; May-Hadford, Jennifer; McCormick, Rachel; Savelli, Carmen; Middleton, Dean; Allen, Vanessa; Tremblay, Francois-William; MacDougall, Laura; Hoang, Linda; Shyng, Sion; Everett, Doug; Chui, Linda; Louie, Marie; Bangura, Helen; Levett, Paul N; Wilkinson, Krista; Wylie, John; Reid, Janet; Major, Brian; Engel, Dave; Douey, Donna; Huszczynski, George; Di Lecci, Joe; Strazds, Judy; Rousseau, Josée; Ma, Kenneth; Isaac, Leah; Sierpinska, Urszula

2015-08-01

A multi-province outbreak of listeriosis occurred in Canada from June to November 2008. Fifty-seven persons were infected with 1 of 3 similar outbreak strains defined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, and 24 (42%) individuals died. Forty-one (72%) of 57 individuals were residents of long-term care facilities or hospital inpatients during their exposure period. Descriptive epidemiology, product traceback, and detection of the outbreak strains of Listeria monocytogenes in food samples and the plant environment confirmed delicatessen meat manufactured by one establishment and purchased primarily by institutions was the source of the outbreak. The food safety investigation identified a plant environment conducive to the introduction and proliferation of L. monocytogenes and persistently contaminated with Listeria spp. This outbreak demonstrated the need for improved listeriosis surveillance, strict control of L. monocytogenes in establishments producing ready-to-eat foods, and advice to vulnerable populations and institutions serving these populations regarding which high-risk foods to avoid.

RISK PERCEPTION AND DIFFUSION OF MERCURY RISK INFORMATION

Science.gov (United States)

The most recent NHANES data reveals that approximately 8% of American women have blood Mercury levels exceeding the EPA reference dose (a dose below which symptoms would be unlikely). The children of these women are at risk of neurological deficits (lower IQ scores) primarily bec...

Predictors of moderated drinking in a primarily alcohol dependent sample of men who have sex with men

Science.gov (United States)

Kuerbis, Alexis; Morgenstern, Jon; Hail, Lisa

2012-01-01

Understanding for whom moderated drinking is a viable, achievable, and sustainable goal among those with a range of alcohol use disorders (AUD) remains an important public health question. Despite common acceptance as severe risk factors, there is little empirical evidence to conclude whether co-occurring mental health disorders or drug dependence contribute to an individual’s inability to successfully moderate his drinking. Utilizing secondary data analysis, the purpose of this study was to identify predictors of moderation among both treatment seeking and non-treatment seeking, primarily alcohol dependent, problem drinking men who have sex with men (MSM), with an emphasis on the high risk factors psychiatric comorbidity and drug dependence. Problem drinkers (N=187) were assessed, provided feedback about their drinking, given the option to receive brief AUD treatment or change their drinking on their own, and then followed for 15 months. Findings revealed that neither psychiatric comorbidity or drug dependence predicted ability to achieve moderation when controlling for alcohol dependence severity. Those who were younger, more highly educated, and had more mild alcohol dependence were more likely to achieve moderated drinking. Impact of treatment on predictors is explored. Limitations of this study and arenas for future research are discussed. PMID:22201219

Hedging Yield with Weather Derivatives: A Role for Options

OpenAIRE

Manfredo, Mark R.; Richards, Timothy J.

2005-01-01

While there are few risk management alternatives available to specialty crop growers, weather derivatives provide an important advancement. As with the use of any derivatives contract, the behavior of the basis will ultimately determine the net-hedged outcome. However, when using weather derivatives to hedge yield risks for specialty crops, growers face a unique form of basis risk because weather (temperature) and yield are nonlinearly related. Using the forecast encompassing principle, this ...

Focus on Chronic Exposure for Deriving Drinking Water Guidance Underestimates Potential Risk to Infants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen Goeden

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In 2007, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH developed new risk assessment methods for deriving human health-based water guidance (HBG that incorporated the assessment of multiple exposure durations and life stages. The methodology is based on US Environmental Protection Agency recommendations for protecting children’s health (US EPA 2002. Over the last 10 years, the MDH has derived multiple duration (e.g., short-term, subchronic, and chronic water guidance for over 60 chemicals. This effort involved derivation of multiple duration reference doses (RfDs and selection of corresponding water intake rates (e.g., infant, child, and lifetime. As expected, RfDs typically decreased with increasing exposure duration. However, the corresponding HBG frequently did not decrease with increasing duration. For more than half of the chemicals, the shorter duration HBG was lower than chronic HBG value. Conventional wisdom has been that chronic-based values will be the most conservative and will therefore be protective of less than chronic exposures. However, the MDH’s experience highlights the importance of evaluating short-term exposures. For many chemicals, elevated intake rates early in life, coupled with short-term RfDs, resulted in the lowest HBG. Drinking water criteria based on chronic assessments may not be protective of short-term exposures in highly exposed populations such as formula-fed infants.

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

OpenAIRE

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

Does radiation risk exist?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Passchier, W.

1996-01-01

Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

Identification of a novel CoA synthase isoform, which is primarily expressed in Brain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemazanyy, Ivan; Panasyuk, Ganna; Breus, Oksana; Zhyvoloup, Alexander; Filonenko, Valeriy; Gout, Ivan T.

2006-01-01

CoA and its derivatives Acetyl-CoA and Acyl-CoA are important players in cellular metabolism and signal transduction. CoA synthase is a bifunctional enzyme which mediates the final stages of CoA biosynthesis. In previous studies, we have reported molecular cloning, biochemical characterization, and subcellular localization of CoA synthase (CoASy). Here, we describe the existence of a novel CoA synthase isoform, which is the product of alternative splicing and possesses a 29aa extension at the N-terminus. We termed it CoASy β and originally identified CoA synthase, CoASy α. The transcript specific for CoASy β was identified by electronic screening and by RT-PCR analysis of various rat tissues. The existence of this novel isoform was further confirmed by immunoblot analysis with antibodies directed to the N-terminal peptide of CoASy β. In contrast to CoASy α, which shows ubiquitous expression, CoASy β is primarily expressed in Brain. Using confocal microscopy, we demonstrated that both isoforms are localized on mitochondria. The N-terminal extension does not affect the activity of CoA synthase, but possesses a proline-rich sequence which can bring the enzyme into complexes with signalling proteins containing SH3 or WW domains. The role of this novel isoform in CoA biosynthesis, especially in Brain, requires further elucidation

Cardiometabolic Syndrome in People With Spinal Cord Injury/Disease: Guideline-Derived and Nonguideline Risk Components in a Pooled Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, Mark S; Tractenberg, Rochelle E; Mendez, Armando J; David, Maya; Ljungberg, Inger H; Tinsley, Emily A; Burns-Drecq, Patricia A; Betancourt, Luisa F; Groah, Suzanne L

2016-10-01

To assess cardiometabolic syndrome (CMS) risk definitions in spinal cord injury/disease (SCI/D). Cross-sectional analysis of a pooled sample. Two SCI/D academic medical and rehabilitation centers. Baseline data from subjects in 7 clinical studies were pooled; not all variables were collected in all studies; therefore, participant numbers varied from 119 to 389. The pooled sample included men (79%) and women (21%) with SCI/D >1 year at spinal cord levels spanning C3-T2 (American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale [AIS] grades A-D). Not applicable. We computed the prevalence of CMS using the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guideline (CMS diagnosis as sum of risks ≥3 method) for the following risk components: overweight/obesity, insulin resistance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. We compared this prevalence with the risk calculated from 2 routinely used nonguideline CMS risk assessments: (1) key cut scores identifying insulin resistance derived from the homeostatic model 2 (HOMA2) method or quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), and (2) a cardioendocrine risk ratio based on an inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP])-adjusted total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, injury level and AIS grade were unrelated to CMS or risk factors. Of the participants, 13% and 32.1% had CMS when using the sum of risks or HOMA2/QUICKI model, respectively. Overweight/obesity and (pre)hypertension were highly prevalent (83% and 62.1%, respectively), with risk for overweight/obesity being significantly associated with CMS diagnosis (sum of risks, χ(2)=10.105; adjusted P=.008). Insulin resistance was significantly associated with CMS when using the HOMA2/QUICKI model (χ(2)2=21.23, adjusted P<.001). Of the subjects, 76.4% were at moderate to high risk from elevated CRP, which was significantly associated with CMS determination (both methods; sum of risks, χ(2

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China).

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Hu, Dongsheng; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Huang, Jianfeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Liu, Fangchao; Cao, Jie; Shen, Chong; Yu, Ling; Lu, Fanghong; Wu, Xianping; Zhao, Liancheng; Wu, Xigui; Gu, Dongfeng

2016-11-08

The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts. Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ 2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ 2 values in men. Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Diet index-based and empirically derived dietary patterns are associated with colorectal cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Paige E; Lazarus, Philip; Lesko, Samuel M; Muscat, Joshua E; Harper, Gregory; Cross, Amanda J; Sinha, Rashmi; Ryczak, Karen; Escobar, Gladys; Mauger, David T; Hartman, Terryl J

2010-07-01

Previous studies have derived patterns by measuring compliance with preestablished dietary guidance or empirical methods, such as principal components analysis (PCA). Our objective was to examine colorectal cancer risk associated with patterns identified by both methods. The study included 431 incident colorectal cancer cases (225 men, 206 women) and 726 healthy controls (330 men, 396 women) participating in a population-based, case-control study. PCA identified sex-specific dietary patterns and the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-05) assessed adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. A fruits and vegetables pattern and a meat, potatoes, and refined grains pattern were identified among men and women; a third pattern (alcohol and sweetened beverages) was identified in men. The fruits and vegetables pattern was inversely associated with risk among men [odds ratio (OR) = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.21-0.69 for the highest compared with the lowest quartile] and women (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.19-0.65). The meat, potatoes, and refined grains pattern was positively associated with risk in women (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.08-4.50) and there was a suggestion of a positive association among men (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 0.84-2.90; P-trend = 0.070). Men and women with greater HEI-05 scores had a significantly reduced risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.31-0.99; OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.24-0.77, respectively). Following the Dietary Guidelines or a dietary pattern lower in meat, potatoes, high fat, and refined foods and higher in fruits and vegetables may reduce colorectal cancer risk.

Unlabelled and radioactive labelled derivatives of butylamino propiophenone and their preparation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Findlay, J.W.A.; Butz, R.F.; Welch, R.M.

1986-01-01

This invention relates to new unlabelled and radioactive labelled derivatives of butylamino propiophenone and their preparation. This invention is primarily directed to a radioimmunoassay for clinical or experimental testing for the presence of and quantitation of bupropion, a pharmacologically active antidepressant compound, in biological fluids

Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Richard Little

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate adaptation requires large capital investments that could be provided not only by traditional sources like governments and banks, but also by derivatives markets. Such markets would allow two parties with different tolerances and expectations about climate risks to transact for their mutual benefit and, in so doing, finance climate adaptation. Here we calculate the price of a derivative called a European put option, based on future sea surface temperature (SST in Tasmania, Australia, with an 18 °C strike threshold. This price represents a quantifiable indicator of climate risk, and forms the basis for aquaculture industries exposed to the risk of higher SST to finance adaptation strategies through the sale of derivative contracts. Such contracts provide a real incentive to parties with different climate outlooks, or risk exposure to take a market assessment of climate change.

Post-traumatic stress disorder risk and brain-derived neurotrophic factor Val66Met

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Xiao-Xia; Hu, Xian-Zhang

2016-01-01

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), which regulates neuronal survival, growth differentiation, and synapse formation, is known to be associated with depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the molecular mechanism for those mental disorders remains unknown. Studies have shown that BDNF is associated with PTSD risk and exaggerated startle reaction (a major arousal manifestation of PTSD) in United States military service members who were deployed during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The frequency of the Met/Met in BDNF gene was greater among those with PTSD than those without PTSD. Among individuals who experienced fewer lifetime stressful events, the Met carriers have significantly higher total and startle scores on the PTSD Checklist than the Val/Val carriers. In addition, subjects with PTSD showed higher levels of BDNF in their peripheral blood plasma than the non-probable-PTSD controls. Increased BDNF levels and startle response were observed in both blood plasma and brain hippocampus by inescapable tail shock in rats. In this paper, we reviewed these data to discuss BDNF as a potential biomarker for PTSD risk and its possible roles in the onset of PTSD. PMID:27014593

Liquidity effects and FFA returns in the international shipping derivatives market

OpenAIRE

Alizadeh, Amir H.; Kappou, K; Tsouknidis, Dimitris; Visvikis, Ilias

2015-01-01

The study examines the impact of liquidity risk on freight derivatives returns. The Amihud liquidity ratio and bid–ask spreads are utilized to assess the existence of liquidity risk in the freight derivatives market. Other macroeconomic variables are used to control for market risk. Results indicate that liquidity risk is priced and both liquidity measures have a significant role in determining freight derivatives returns. Consistent with expectations, both liquidity measures are found to hav...

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk

Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2008-01-01

We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the

Amazonian Amphibian Diversity Is Primarily Derived from Late Miocene Andean Lineages

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Juan C; Coloma, Luis A; Summers, Kyle; Caldwell, Janalee P; Ree, Richard; Cannatella, David C

2009-01-01

The Neotropics contains half of remaining rainforests and Earth's largest reservoir of amphibian biodiversity. However, determinants of Neotropical biodiversity (i.e., vicariance, dispersals, extinctions, and radiations) earlier than the Quaternary are largely unstudied. Using a novel method of ancestral area reconstruction and relaxed Bayesian clock analyses, we reconstructed the biogeography of the poison frog clade (Dendrobatidae). We rejected an Amazonian center-of-origin in favor of a complex connectivity model expanding over the Neotropics. We inferred 14 dispersals into and 18 out of Amazonia to adjacent regions; the Andes were the major source of dispersals into Amazonia. We found three episodes of lineage dispersal with two interleaved periods of vicariant events between South and Central America. During the late Miocene, Amazonian, and Central American-Chocoan lineages significantly increased their diversity compared to the Andean and Guianan-Venezuelan-Brazilian Shield counterparts. Significant percentage of dendrobatid diversity in Amazonia and Chocó resulted from repeated immigrations, with radiations at Venezuelan Highlands, and Guiana Shield have undergone extended in situ diversification at near constant rate since the Oligocene. The effects of Miocene paleogeographic events on Neotropical diversification dynamics provided the framework under which Quaternary patterns of endemism evolved. PMID:19278298

Derivation of Accident-Specific Material-at-Risk Equivalency Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jason P. Andrus; Dr. Chad L. Pope

2012-05-01

A novel method for calculating material at risk (MAR) dose equivalency developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) now allows for increased utilization of dose equivalency for facility MAR control. This method involves near-real time accounting for the use of accident and material specific release and transport. It utilizes all information from the committed effective dose equation and the five factor source term equation to derive dose equivalency factors which can be used to establish an overall facility or process MAR limit. The equivalency factors allow different nuclide spectrums to be compared for their respective dose consequences by relating them to a specific quantity of an identified reference nuclide. The ability to compare spectrums to a reference limit ensures that MAR limits are in fact bounding instead of attempting to establish a representative or bounding spectrum which may lead to unintended or unanalyzed configurations. This methodology is then coupled with a near real time material tracking system which allows for accurate and timely material composition information and corresponding MAR equivalency values. The development of this approach was driven by the complex nature of processing operations in some INL facilities. This type of approach is ideally suited for facilities and processes where the composition of the MAR and possible release mechanisms change frequently but in well defined fashions and in a batch-type nature.

Human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC)-derived neurons respond to convulsant drugs when co-cultured with hiPSC-derived astrocytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishii, Misawa Niki; Yamamoto, Koji; Shoji, Masanobu; Asami, Asano; Kawamata, Yuji

2017-08-15

Accurate risk assessment for drug-induced seizure is expected to be performed before entering clinical studies because of its severity and fatal damage to drug development. Induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) technology has allowed the use of human neurons and glial cells in toxicology studies. Recently, several studies showed the advantage of co-culture system of human iPSC (hiPSC)-derived neurons with rodent/human primary astrocytes regarding neuronal functions. However, the application of hiPSC-derived neurons for seizure risk assessment has not yet been fully addressed, and not at all when co-cultured with hiPSC-derived astrocytes. Here, we characterized hiPSC-derived neurons co-cultured with hiPSC-derived astrocytes to discuss how hiPSC-derived neurons are useful to assess seizure risk of drugs. First, we detected the frequency of spikes and synchronized bursts hiPSC-derived neurons when co-cultured with hiPSC-derived astrocytes for 8 weeks. This synchronized burst was suppressed by the treatment with 6-cyano-7-nitroquinoxaline-2,3-dione, α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionic acid (AMPA) receptor antagonist, and D-(-)-2-amino-5-phosphonopentanoic acid, an N-Methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist. These data suggested that co-cultured hiPSC-derived neurons formed synaptic connections mediated by AMPA and NMDA receptors. We also demonstrated that co-cultured hiPSC-derived neurons showed epileptiform activity upon treatment with gabazine or kaliotoxin. Finally, we performed single-cell transcriptome analysis in hiPSC-derived neurons and found that hiPSC-derived astrocytes activated the pathways involved in the activities of AMPA and NMDA receptor functions, neuronal polarity, and axon guidance in hiPSC-derived neurons. These data suggested that hiPSC-derived astrocytes promoted the development of action potential, synaptic functions, and neuronal networks in hiPSC-derived neurons, and then these functional alterations result in the epileptiform

The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

2013-01-01

There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

Human punishment is not primarily motivated by inequality.

Science.gov (United States)

Marczyk, Jesse

2017-01-01

Previous theorizing about punishment has suggested that humans desire to punish inequality per se. However, the research supporting such an interpretation contains important methodological confounds. The main objective of the current experiment was to remove those confounds in order to test whether generating inequality per se is punished. Participants were recruited from an online market to take part in a wealth-alteration game with an ostensible second player. The participants were given an option to deduct from the other player's payment as punishment for their behavior during the game. The results suggest that human punishment does not appear to be motivated by inequality per se, as inequality that was generated without inflicting costs on others was not reliably punished. Instead, punishment seems to respond primarily to the infliction of costs, with inequality only becoming relevant as a secondary input for punishment decisions. The theoretical significance of this finding is discussed in the context of its possible adaptive value.

Human punishment is not primarily motivated by inequality

Science.gov (United States)

Marczyk, Jesse

2017-01-01

Previous theorizing about punishment has suggested that humans desire to punish inequality per se. However, the research supporting such an interpretation contains important methodological confounds. The main objective of the current experiment was to remove those confounds in order to test whether generating inequality per se is punished. Participants were recruited from an online market to take part in a wealth-alteration game with an ostensible second player. The participants were given an option to deduct from the other player’s payment as punishment for their behavior during the game. The results suggest that human punishment does not appear to be motivated by inequality per se, as inequality that was generated without inflicting costs on others was not reliably punished. Instead, punishment seems to respond primarily to the infliction of costs, with inequality only becoming relevant as a secondary input for punishment decisions. The theoretical significance of this finding is discussed in the context of its possible adaptive value. PMID:28187166

Human punishment is not primarily motivated by inequality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesse Marczyk

Full Text Available Previous theorizing about punishment has suggested that humans desire to punish inequality per se. However, the research supporting such an interpretation contains important methodological confounds. The main objective of the current experiment was to remove those confounds in order to test whether generating inequality per se is punished. Participants were recruited from an online market to take part in a wealth-alteration game with an ostensible second player. The participants were given an option to deduct from the other player's payment as punishment for their behavior during the game. The results suggest that human punishment does not appear to be motivated by inequality per se, as inequality that was generated without inflicting costs on others was not reliably punished. Instead, punishment seems to respond primarily to the infliction of costs, with inequality only becoming relevant as a secondary input for punishment decisions. The theoretical significance of this finding is discussed in the context of its possible adaptive value.

Central Clearing of OTC Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

2014-01-01

netting agreements. When a CCP exists for interest rate derivatives, adding a CCP for credit derivatives is shown to decrease overall exposures. These findings are shown to be robust to the statistical assumptions of the model as well as the choice of risk measure used to quantify exposures....

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

2018-07-01

Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

Derivative financial instruments and nonprofit health care providers.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Louis J; Owhoso, Vincent

2004-01-01

This article examines the extent of derivative financial instrument use among US nonprofit health systems and the impact of these financial instruments on their cash flows, reported operating results, and financial risks. Our examination is conducted through a case study of New Jersey hospitals and health systems. We review the existing literature on interest rate derivative instruments and US hospitals and health systems. This literature describes the design of these derivative financial instruments and the theoretical benefits of their use by large health care provider organizations. Our contribution to the literature is to provide an empirical evaluation of derivative financial instruments usage among a geographically limited sample of US nonprofit health systems. We reviewed the audited financial statements of the 49 community hospitals and multi-hospital health systems operating in the state of New Jersey. We found that 8 percent of New Jersey's nonprofit health providers utilized interest rate derivatives with an aggregate principle value of $229 million. These derivative users combine interest rate swaps and caps to lower the effective interest costs of their long-term debt while limiting their exposure to future interest rate increases. In addition, while derivative assets and liabilities have an immaterial balance sheet impact, derivative related gains and losses are a material component of their reported operating results. We also found that derivative usage among these four health systems was responsible for generating positive cash flows in the range of 1 percent to 2 percent of their total 2001 cash flows from operations. As a result of our admittedly limited samples we conclude that interest rate swaps and caps are effective risk management tools. However, we also found that while these derivative financial instruments are useful hedges against the risks of issuing long-term financing instruments, they also expose derivative users to credit, contract

Mechanism of immune tolerance induced by donor derived immature dendritic cells in rat high-risk corneal transplantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu-Dong Zhao

2013-06-01

Full Text Available AIM: To study the role of immature dendritic cells (imDCs on immune tolerance in rat penetrating keratoplasty (PKP in high-risk eyes and to investigate the mechanism of immune hyporesponsiveness induced by donor-derived imDCs. METHODS: Seventy-five SD rats (recipient and 39 Wistar rats (donor were randomly divided into 3 groups: control, imDC and mature dendritic cell (mDC group respectively. Using a model of orthotopic corneal transplantation in which allografts were placed in neovascularized high-risk eyes of recipient rat. Corneal neovascularization was induced by alkaline burn in the central cornea of recipient rat. Recipients in imDC group or mDC group were injected donor bone marrow-derived imDCs or mDCs of 1×106 respectively 1 week before corneal transplantation via tail vein. Control rat received the same volume of PBS. In each group, 16 recipients were kept for determination of survival time and other 9 recipients were executed on day 3, 7 and 14 after transplantation. Cornea was harvested for hematoxylin-eosin staining and acute rejection evaluation, Western blot was used to detect the expression level of Foxp3. RESULTS: The mean survival time of imDC group was significantly longer than that of control and mDC groups (all P<0.05. The expression level of Foxp3 on CD4+CD25+T cells of imDC group (2.24±0.18 was significantly higher than that in the control (1.68±0.09 and mDC groups (1.46±0.13 (all P<0.05. CONCLUSION: Donor-derived imDC is an effective treatment in inducing immune hyporesponsiveness in rat PKP. The mechanism of immune tolerance induced by imDC might be inhibit T lymphocytes responsiveness by regulatory T cells.

Comprehensive screening for immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus: an essential oral poliovirus vaccine cessation risk management strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Duintjer Tebbens, R J; Thompson, K M

2017-01-01

If the world can successfully control all outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus that may occur soon after global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation, then immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived polioviruses (iVDPVs) from rare and mostly asymptomatic long-term excretors (defined as ⩾6 months of excretion) will become the main source of potential poliovirus outbreaks for as long as iVDPV excretion continues. Using existing models of global iVDPV prevalence and global long-term poliovirus risk management, we explore the implications of uncertainties related to iVDPV risks, including the ability to identify asymptomatic iVDPV excretors to treat with polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) and the transmissibility of iVDPVs. The expected benefits of expanded screening to identify and treat long-term iVDPV excretors with PAVDs range from US$0.7 to 1.5 billion with the identification of 25-90% of asymptomatic long-term iVDPV excretors, respectively. However, these estimates depend strongly on assumptions about the transmissibility of iVDPVs and model inputs affecting the global iVDPV prevalence. For example, the expected benefits may decrease to as low as US$260 million with the identification of 90% of asymptomatic iVDPV excretors if iVDPVs behave and transmit like partially reverted viruses instead of fully reverted viruses. Comprehensive screening for iVDPVs will reduce uncertainties and maximize the expected benefits of PAVD use.

Quantitative risk trends deriving from PSA-based event analyses. Analysis of results from U.S.NRC's accident sequence precursor program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

2004-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) has been carrying out the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique. The ASP Program has identified a lot of risk significant events as precursors that occurred at U.S. nuclear power plants. Although the results from the ASP Program include valuable information that could be useful for obtaining and characterizing risk significant insights and for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry, there are only a few attempts to determine and develop the trends using the ASP results. The present study examines and discusses quantitative risk trends for the industry level, using two indicators, that is, the occurrence frequency of precursors and the annual core damage probability, deriving from the results of the ASP analysis. It is shown that the core damage risk at U.S. nuclear power plants has been lowered and the likelihood of risk significant events has been remarkably decreasing. As well, the present study demonstrates that two risk indicators used here can provide quantitative information useful for examining and monitoring the risk trends and/or risk characteristics in nuclear power industry. (author)

Conference Proceedings: Effectively utilizing energy derivatives in a deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

This conference was devoted to a discussion about the likely impacts of deregulation on electricity markets in North America. Many of the presentations emphasized price risk in a competitive open access energy market. It was noted that deregulation is frequently associated with the creation of larger companies, higher risks and lower costs. Some of the individual topics addressed by the speakers included discussion of : (1) how underlying physical markets will work in Ontario, (2) experiences in derivative trading in the natural gas industry, (3) how to create value through multiple commodity risk management products, (4) trading with energy derivatives in the U.S. (5) how derivatives can add value for municipal electrical utilities, and (6) risk management mechanisms for energy derivative trading. refs., tabs., figs

A study on current risk assessments and guidelines on the use of food animal products derived from cloned animals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hur, Sun Jin

2017-10-01

The author widely surveyed and analyzed the food safety issues, ethical issues, permits, and approval of animal products from animals cloned by somatic cell nuclear transfer worldwide. As a result of a 2-year survey, the author found that there is no evidence that meat and milk derived from cloned animals or their progeny pose a risk to food safety in terms of genotoxicity, adverse reproductive effects, or allergic reactions. Most countries have not approved meat and milk derived from cloned animals, and their progeny are entering the food supply. To establish the guidelines, the author suggests four principles of safety assessment for meat and milk derived from cloned animals. The four main principles for safety assessment are similarities of chemical composition, adverse reproductive effects, genotoxicity, and allergic reactions under the influence of meat and milk from cloned animals and noncloned counterparts. This principle means that meat and milk derived from a cloned animal are safe if there are no differences in the four safety assessments of meat and milk between cloned animal's progeny and noncloned counterparts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Credit securitization and credit derivatives: Financial instruments and the credit risk management of middle market commercial loan portfolios

OpenAIRE

Henke, Sabine; Burghof, Hans-Peter; Rudolph, Bernd

1998-01-01

Banks increasingly recognize the need to measure and manage the credit risk of their loans on a portfolio basis. We address the subportfolio "middle market". Due to their specific lending policy for this market segment it is an important task for banks to systematically identify regional and industrial credit concentrations and reduce the detected concentrations through diversification. In recent years, the development of markets for credit securitization and credit derivatives has provided n...

Psychosis risk screening: Validation of the youth psychosis at-risk questionnaire - brief in a community-derived sample of adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo; Ortuño-Sierra, Javier; Chocarro, Edurne; Inchausti, Felix; Debbané, Martin; Bobes, Julio

2017-12-01

There have been several attempts to identify individuals potentially at high risk for psychotic-spectrum disorders using brief screening measures. However, relatively few studies have tested the psychometric properties of the psychosis screening measures in representative samples of adolescents. The main purpose of the present study was to analyse the prevalence, factorial structure, measurement invariance across gender, and reliability of the Youth Psychosis At-Risk Questionnaire - Brief (YPARQ-B) in a community-derived sample of adolescents. Additionally, the relationship between YPARQ-B, depressive symptoms, psychopathology, stress manifestations, and prosocial skills was analysed. One thousand and twenty students from high schools participated in a cross-sectional survey. The YPARQ-B, the Reynolds Adolescent Depression Scale, the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, and the Student Stress Inventory - Stress Manifestations were used. A total of 85.1% of the total sample self-reported at least one subclinical psychotic experience. We observed a total of 10.9% of adolescents with a cutoff score of ≥11 or 6.8% with a cutoff score of ≥13. The analysis of internal structure of the YPARQ-B yielded an essentially unidimensional structure. The YPARQ-B scores showed measurement invariance across gender. The internal consistency of the YPARQ-B total score was 0.94. Furthermore, self-reported subclinical psychotic experiences were associated with depressive symptoms, emotional and behavioural problems, poor prosocial skills, and stress manifestations. These results would appear to indicate that YPARQ-B is a brief and easy tool to assess self-reported subclinical psychotic experiences in adolescents from the general population. The assessment of these experiences in community settings, and its associations with psychopathology, may help us to enhance the possibility of an early identification of adolescents potentially at risk for psychosis and mental health

Harmful Chemicals in Soil and Risk Assessment of an Abandoned Open Dumpsite in Eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Huang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The concentrations of pollutants in soil samples collected in and around a dumpsite in Heze, Shandong, China, were investigated, and the potential ecological and health risks of these pollutants were assessed. Seventeen soil samples from five different locations were analysed for pollution characteristics, and the target pollutants included inorganic pollutants and heavy metals as well as volatile organic compounds/semivolatile organic compounds (VOCs/SVOCs. Results showed that the mean concentration level of each pollutant from the interior area was relatively higher than that from the boundary area of the dumpsite. Inorganic pollutants and heavy metals were detected in all of the soil samples. According to potential ecological risk assessment with environmental background values of Shandong as screening values, heavy metals in majority of the samples pose low ecological risk to the ecosystem except Hg. Hg poses a considerable or very high risk because of its high levels of accumulation. In consideration of future land use pattern, human health risks derived from environmental exposure to heavy metals were assessed. Carcinogenic risk and noncarcinogenic hazards for adults are acceptable, while noncarcinogenic hazards for children exceed the safety threshold. The health risks are primarily attributed to oral exposure to As and Cr.

Diet Quality and Nutrient Intake of Urban Overweight and Obese Primarily African American Older Adults with Osteoarthritis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sevasti Vergis

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Diet quality may be a unique target for preventing and managing obesity-related osteoarthritis (OA. Using the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010, this study examined the nutrient intake and diet quality of 400 urban overweight and obese primarily African American older adults with self-reported lower extremity OA. Associations between sociodemographic and health-related factors and diet quality were explored. Participants (mean age 67.8 years, SD 5.9 were included. Habitual dietary intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. Nutrient intake and diet quality were calculated from the FFQ. Results indicated that diet quality needs improvement (HEI-2010: 66.3 (SD 10.5. Age, body mass index, employment (multivariable model only, and OA severity (bivariate model only were significant predictors of HEI-2010 total score in linear models. Mean intakes for fiber, calcium, and vitamin D were below recommendations, while percentage of calories as total fat exceeded recommendations. These findings can inform future dietary intervention trials and public health messaging for a sub-population at a high risk for obesity-related OA.

Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

Science.gov (United States)

McCrea, D

2005-04-01

Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

RBCA-based approaches to ecological risk assessment for TPH-contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hummell, R.; Vedagiri, U.

1995-01-01

The RBCA guidelines proposed by ASTM form an evaluation and decision-making framework for sites potentially contaminated by petroleum releases. They present a three-tiered approach of decreasing conservatism and increasing site-specificity that primarily evaluates risks to human health. While RBCA includes consideration of environmental impacts, there are no specific recommendations on how this is to be achieved. A RBCA-based ecological risk assessment approach was developed for TPH-contaminated areas in Alaska. The approach presents a habitat-based selection process for surrogate chemicals and indicator chemicals of ecological relevance, evaluation of ecotoxicity, derivation of matrix-specific Tier 1 RBSLs (including soils) and determination of Tier 2 and 3 SSTLS. Chemicals are considered by class, aquatic (freshwater and saltwater) and terrestrial habitats are evaluated independently, and chemical concentrations are screened in all media of concern (air, soil, water, sediment). Data needs and decision points specific to ecological receptors are identified for each tier of the approach. Other aspects of the approach include consideration of contaminant migration pathways and habitats that are typical of Arctic conditions. Areas where ecological and human risk concerns may overlap are identified

Molecular Targets of Nutraceuticals Derived from Dietary Spices: Potential Role in Suppression of Inflammation and Tumorigenesis

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, Bharat B.; Van Kuiken, Michelle E.; Iyer, Laxmi H.; Harikumar, Kuzhuvelil B.; Sung, Bokyung

2011-01-01

Despite the fact cancer is primarily a preventable disease, recent statistics indicate cancer will become the number one killer worldwide in 2010. Since certain cancers are more prevalent in the people of some countries than others, suggests the role of lifestyle. For instance cancer incidence among people from the Indian subcontinent, where most spices are consumed, is much lower than that in the Western World. Spices have been consumed for centuries for a variety of purposes—as flavoring agents, colorants, and preservatives. However, there is increasing evidence for the importance of plant-based foods in regular diet to lowering the risk of most chronic diseases, so spices are now emerging as more than just flavor aids, but as agents that can not only prevent but may even treat disease. In this article, we discuss the role of 41 common dietary spices with over 182 spice-derived nutraceuticals for their effects against different stages of tumorigenesis. Besides suppressing inflammatory pathways, spice-derived nutraceuticals can suppress survival, proliferation, invasion, and angiogenesis of tumor cells. We discuss how spice-derived nutraceuticals mediate such diverse effects and what their molecular targets are. Overall our review suggests “adding spice to your life” may serve as a healthy and delicious way to ward off cancer and other chronic diseases. PMID:19491364

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Derivation of a No-Significant-Risk-Level (NSRL) for diethanolamine (DEA).

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bingxuan; Amacher, David E; Whittaker, Margaret H

2014-02-01

Diethanolamine (DEA) has been listed on the State of California's Proposition 65 List. This listing is based in part on tumors reported in a National Toxicology Program (NTP) 2-year dermal carcinogenicity study in mice which found clear evidence of carcinogenic activity in B6C3F₁ mice based on increased incidences of liver neoplasms in both sexes, and increased incidences of renal tubule neoplasms in males. Although considerable controversy exists on the relevance of the NTP study to humans, industries are obligated to comply with the Proposition 65 labeling requirement and drinking water discharge prohibition, unless they are able to demonstrate that DEA levels in their products are below a specific No Significant Risk Level (NSRL). The State of California has not published an NSRL for DEA. In this article, a NSRL of 5.6 μg/day and a life-stage-adjusted NSRL(adj) of 1.4 μg/day are derived from the NTP carcinogenicity study using a benchmark dose modeling method based on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinomas in female mice, in accordance with the guidelines of California EPA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Finanční deriváty v České republice a ve světě

OpenAIRE

Petrov, Ondřej

2011-01-01

This thesis deals with the financial derivatives and trading in the world and the Czech Republic. The introductory part defines the basic concepts associated with financial derivatives, describes their types and method of statistical reporting. Briefly outlines the basic types of derivatives and their history. The second part evaluates the derivatives trading on Exchange and OTC markets. It is primarily focused on the latest development during the financial crisis. The third part examines mor...

Elevated levels of plasma brain derived neurotrophic factor in rapid cycling bipolar disorder patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munkholm, Klaus; Pedersen, Bente Klarlund; Kessing, Lars Vedel

2014-01-01

Impaired neuroplasticity may be implicated in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder, involving peripheral alterations of the neurotrophins brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and neurotrophin 3 (NT-3). Evidence is limited by methodological issues and is based primarily on case-control desi......Impaired neuroplasticity may be implicated in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder, involving peripheral alterations of the neurotrophins brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and neurotrophin 3 (NT-3). Evidence is limited by methodological issues and is based primarily on case......-control designs. The aim of this study was to investigate whether BDNF and NT-3 levels differ between patients with rapid cycling bipolar disorder and healthy control subjects and whether BDNF and NT-3 levels alter with affective states in rapid cycling bipolar disorder patients. Plasma levels of BDNF and NT-3......, levels of BDNF were significantly elevated in bipolar disorder patients in euthymic- (pdifference in BDNF levels...

Differential reconstructed gene interaction networks for deriving toxicity threshold in chemical risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yi; Maxwell, Andrew; Zhang, Xiaowei; Wang, Nan; Perkins, Edward J; Zhang, Chaoyang; Gong, Ping

2013-01-01

. Findings from this proof-of-concept study suggest that our approach has a great potential in providing a novel and sensitive tool for threshold setting in chemical risk assessment. In future work, we plan to analyze more time-series datasets with a full spectrum of concentrations and sufficient replications per treatment. The pathway alteration-derived thresholds will also be compared with those derived from apical endpoints such as cell growth rate.

A cost/risk framework for evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.

1992-01-01

This paper reports on a cost/risk framework which is developed to compare waste management alternatives such as partitioning and transmutation (P-T) to the currently open light water reactor fuel cycle in the United States in which spent fuel will be buried in a geologic repository. This framework has utility for developing economic values associated with long-term risk and was originally developed as part of a system study to define and determine the scope of the driving features of a P-T scheme involving nonconventional (pyrochemical) reprocessing and a fast-spectrum reactor fueled primarily with minor actinides. A potentially significant benefit is shown to be obtainable in the form of reduced long-term repository health risks; although the primary risk reduction is derived from the destruction or selective packaging and disposal of 99 Tc and 129 I, the modification of probabilities associated with site-specific repository features or highly uncertain future events could affect these results. The potential benefits are represented as a cost stream and appear as a large annual investment available for the development and implementation of P-T Preliminary results suggest further studies in selected areas; a particularly significant near-term health risk benefit is expected to arise from reduced uranium mining and purification activities associated with the closure of the currently open fuel cycle

Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

OpenAIRE

Ávalos, Eloy

2011-01-01

In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

Digital database architecture and delineation methodology for deriving drainage basins, and a comparison of digitally and non-digitally derived numeric drainage areas

Science.gov (United States)

Dupree, Jean A.; Crowfoot, Richard M.

2012-01-01

The drainage basin is a fundamental hydrologic entity used for studies of surface-water resources and during planning of water-related projects. Numeric drainage areas published by the U.S. Geological Survey water science centers in Annual Water Data Reports and on the National Water Information Systems (NWIS) Web site are still primarily derived from hard-copy sources and by manual delineation of polygonal basin areas on paper topographic map sheets. To expedite numeric drainage area determinations, the Colorado Water Science Center developed a digital database structure and a delineation methodology based on the hydrologic unit boundaries in the National Watershed Boundary Dataset. This report describes the digital database architecture and delineation methodology and also presents the results of a comparison of the numeric drainage areas derived using this digital methodology with those derived using traditional, non-digital methods. (Please see report for full Abstract)

Gastric cancer-derived exosomes promote peritoneal metastasis by destroying the mesothelial barrier.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Guang; Qu, Jinglei; Zhang, Ye; Che, Xiaofang; Cheng, Yu; Fan, Yibo; Zhang, Simeng; Na, Di; Liu, Yunpeng; Qu, Xiujuan

2017-07-01

An intact mesothelium serves as a protective barrier to inhibit peritoneal carcinomatosis. Cancer-derived exosomes can mediate directional tumor metastasis; however, little is known about whether gastric cancer-derived exosomes will destroy the mesothelial barrier and promote peritoneal dissemination. Here, we demonstrate that gastric cancer-derived exosomes facilitate peritoneal metastasis by causing mesothelial barrier disruption and peritoneal fibrosis. Injury of peritoneal mesothelial cells elicited by gastric cancer-derived exosomes is through concurrent apoptosis and mesothelial-to-mesenchymal transition (MMT). Additionally, upregulation of p-ERK in peritoneal mesothelial cells is primarily responsible for the MMT while contributing little to apoptosis. Together, these data support the concept that exosomes play a crucial role in remodeling the premetastatic microenvironment and identify a novel mechanism for peritoneal metastasis of gastric carcinoma. © 2017 Federation of European Biochemical Societies.

Earthworm biomass as additional information for risk assessment of heavy metal biomagnification: a case study for dredged sediment-derived soils and polluted floodplain soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vandecasteele, Bart; Samyn, Jurgen; Quataert, Paul; Muys, Bart; Tack, Filip M.G.

2004-01-01

The important role of earthworms in the biomagnification of heavy metals in terrestrial ecosystems is widely recognised. Differences in earthworm biomass between sites is mostly not accounted for in ecological risk assessment. These differences may be large depending on soil properties and pollution status. A survey of earthworm biomass and colonisation rate was carried out on dredged sediment-derived soils (DSDS). Results were compared with observations for the surrounding alluvial plains. Mainly grain size distribution and time since disposal determined earthworm biomass on DSDS, while soil pollution status of the DSDS was of lesser importance. Highest earthworm biomass was observed on sandy loam DSDS disposed at least 40 years ago. - Polluted clayey dredged sediment-derived soils have a relatively low risk for heavy metal biomagnification due to slow earthworm colonisation

A review on mathematical methods of conventional and Islamic derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Hisham, Azie Farhani Badrol; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2014-12-01

Despite the impressive growth of risk management tools in financial institutions, Islamic finance remains miles away behind the conventional institutions. Islamic finance products need to comply with the syariah law and prohibitions, therefore they can use fewer of the available risk management tools compared to conventional. Derivatives have proven to be the effective hedging technique and instrument that broadly being used in the conventional institutions to manage their risks. However, derivatives are not generally accepted as the legitimate products in Islamic finance and they remain controversial issues among the Islamic scholars. This paper reviews the evolution of derivatives such as forwards, futures and options and then explores the mathematical models that being used to solve derivatives such as random walk model, asset pricing model that follows Brownian motion and Black-Scholes model. Other than that, this paper also critically discuss the perspective of derivatives from Islamic point of view. In conclusion, this paper delivers the traditional Islamic products such as salam, urbun and istijrar that can be used to create building blocks of Islamic derivatives.

German risk study, phase (DRS-B)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, W.

1992-01-01

The first risk investigations were primarily intended to estimate the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants and to compare it with other natural risk and civilization risks. The American reactor safety study WASH 1400 and the German risk study phase A (DRS-A) gave a detailed analyses of the offsite consequences of accidents, especially the magnitude and frequency of health damage for the population. Risk investigations today are primarily used to examine the design of safety systems and to further develop the entire safety concept. Safety investigations have shown that nuclear power plants still possess safety reserves if safety systems do not operate as planned. These safety reserves can be exploited in the sense of a further development of safety by plant internal emergency measures. One purpose of risk analyses is to identify such measures and to evaluate their feasibility and effectiveness. The most important goals of the investigations in DRS-B were: Identification of vulnerabilities and possible safety improvements; determination of safety reserves during accident sequences exceeding the design limits; evaluation of plant internal emergency measures. Thus, goals in phase B compared with phase A have changed from investigations of the magnitude of damage to detailed analysis of the plant systems response under accident conditions. The magnitude of possible fission product releases is also determined in phase B. However, no new accident consequence calculations are performed. Figs and tabs

Quantitative gene expression profiling of CD45+ and CD45- skeletal muscle-derived side population cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditte Caroline Andersen, Ditte Caroline; Kristiansen, Gitte Qvist; Jensen, Line

2012-01-01

The skeletal muscle-derived side population (mSP) which highly excludes Hoechst 33342 is composed of CD45(+) and CD45(-) subpopulations; yet, rareness of mSP cells in general has complicated extensive quantitative analysis of gene expression profiles in primarily isolated mSP cells. Here, we desc...... a satellite cell subpopulation) remain in the mSPCD45(-) fraction, and we show that these cells express high levels of many of the known myogenic precursor/stem cell related markers, including Pax7 and Myf5.......The skeletal muscle-derived side population (mSP) which highly excludes Hoechst 33342 is composed of CD45(+) and CD45(-) subpopulations; yet, rareness of mSP cells in general has complicated extensive quantitative analysis of gene expression profiles in primarily isolated mSP cells. Here, we...... describe the isolation of adult mouse normal skeletal muscle residing SPCD45(+) and SPCD45(-) cells from a parent mononuclear muscle-derived cell (MDC) population. Relative quantitative real time PCR (RT-PCR) of 64 genes revealed that mSPCD45(-) compared with mSPCD45(+) was enriched for cells expressing...

Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

Science.gov (United States)

Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

2015-01-01

Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

2009-01-01

Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather derivatives can play a key role in hedging and diversifying such risk because the uncertainty in a company's profit function can be correlated to weather condition which affects diverse industry sectors differently. Unfortunately the weather derivatives market is a classical example of an incomplete market that is not amenable to standard methodologies used for derivative pricing in complete markets. In this paper, we develop an equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting. The model is constructed in the context of a stylized economy where agents optimize their hedging portfolios which include weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand resulting from hedging activities and the supply by the underwriter are combined in an equilibrium pricing model under the assumption that all agents maximize some risk averse utility function. We analyze the gains due to the inclusion of weather derivatives in hedging portfolios and examine the components of that gain attributable to hedging and to risk sharing. (author)

Chemotherapy and novel therapeutics before radical prostatectomy for high-risk clinically localized prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Cha, Eugene K; Eastham, James A

2015-05-01

Although both surgery and radiation are potential curative options for men with clinically localized prostate cancer, a significant proportion of men with high-risk and locally advanced disease will demonstrate biochemical and potentially clinical progression of their disease. Neoadjuvant systemic therapy before radical prostatectomy (RP) is a logical strategy to improve treatment outcomes for men with clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer. Furthermore, delivery of chemotherapy and other systemic agents before RP affords an opportunity to explore the efficacy of these agents with pathologic end points. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy, primarily with docetaxel (with or without androgen deprivation therapy), has demonstrated feasibility and safety in men undergoing RP, but no study to date has established the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy or neoadjuvant chemohormonal therapies. Other novel agents, such as those targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, epidermal growth factor receptor, platelet-derived growth factor receptor, clusterin, and immunomodulatory therapeutics, are currently under investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Asia Pacific energy derivatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fusaro, P.C.

1997-09-01

Asia Pacific Energy Derivatives, from FT Energy, is the first report of its kind to examine the growth of energy derivatives within Asia Pacific and their increasing importance within this region. It provides a comprehensive overview of the subject, including analysis of: deregulation as a market driver; the impact of privatisation; the future for energy risk management tools; the unique characteristics of the Asia Pacific energy market; the role of futures exchanges in Asia; existing indexes and their performance; the differences between the Asia Pacific markets and their more mature counterparts in London and New York; non-oil derivatives, project finance and cross commodity arbitrage; the thriving Pacific Rim Over the Counter (OTC) markets. (author)

Usefulness Of Derivative Instruments In Emerging Markets: Turkish Experience

OpenAIRE

Cem Saatcioglu; Iskender Karagul; Ara G. Volkan

2011-01-01

This article presents an overview of derivative markets, definitions of derivative investment instruments, development of global derivative markets and the applicability of derivative markets in Turkey, given their economic value added to the Turkish economy. Readers will acquire insight into investing in various investment instruments and hedging against risk. Turkish derivative markets will be described, supportive statistical data will be presented, and readers will be introduced to the de...

FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES - MEANINGS BEYOND SUBPRIME CRISIS STIGMA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

FELICIA RAMONA BIRĂU

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Derivatives are designed as complex financial instruments and their main aim is to manage the risk associated with the underlying asset, in order to ensure against fluctuations in value, or to profit from periods of inactivity, instability or decline. In recent years financial derivatives have experienced a fulminant development and also they have been perceived as an effective lever of the modern economy. The subprime crisis was triggered by a quite significant financial infrastructure glitch, which coalesced around certain factors influence, such as : highly permissive regulation of financial markets, speculative bubbles, underperforming risk management, liquidity injections and structural imbalances. Despite the fact that is a innovative segment and quite difficult affordable as understanding level of the operation mechanisms, financial derivatives were only the tool triggering this global dimension crisis.

Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Keating, Brendan J; Hakonarson, Hakon

2016-01-20

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role. In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects. Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC's of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

76 FR 45724 - Clearing Member Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-01

... proposed rules address risk management for cleared trades by futures commission merchants, swap dealers... Commission has proposed extensive regulations addressing open access and risk management at the derivatives..., 2011) (Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations). These proposed regulations...

Pricing a Collateralized Derivative Trade with a Funding Value Adjustment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chadd B. Hunzinger

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The 2008 credit crisis changed the manner in which derivative trades are conducted. One of these changes is the posting of collateral in a trade to mitigate the counterparty credit risk. Another is the realization that banks are not risk-free and, as a result, cannot borrow at the risk-free rate any longer. The latter led banks to introduced the controversial adjustment to derivative prices, known as a funding value adjustment (FVA, which is interlinked with the posting of collateral. In this paper, we extend the Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (CRR discrete-time model to include collateral and FVA. We prove that this derived model is a discrete analogue of Piterbarg’s partial differential equation (PDE, which describes the price of a collateralized derivative. The fact that the two models coincide is also verified by numerical implementation of the results that we obtain.

Silsesquioxane-derived ceramic fibres

Science.gov (United States)

Hurwitz, F. I.; Farmer, S. C.; Terepka, F. M.; Leonhardt, T. A.

1991-01-01

Fibers formed from blends of silsesquioxane polymers were characterized to study the pyrolytic conversion of these precursors to ceramics. The morphology of fibers pyrolyzed to 1400 C revealed primarily amorphous glasses whose conversion to beta-SiC is a function of both blend composition and pyrolysis conditions. Formation of beta-SiC crystallites within the glassy phase is favored by higher than stoichiometric C/Si ratios, while carbothermal reduction of Si-O bonds to form SiC with loss of SiO and CO occurs at higher methyl/phenylpropyl silsesquioxane (lower C/Si) ratios. As the carbothermal reduction is assumed to be diffusion controlled, the fibers can serve as model systems to gain understanding of the silsesquioxane pyrolysis behavior, and therefore are useful in the development of polysilsesquioxane-derived ceramic matrices and coatings as well.

Spatial distribution, temporal variation and risks of parabens and their chlorinated derivatives in urban surface water in Beijing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Wenhui; Gao, Lihong; Shi, Yali; Wang, Yuan; Liu, Jiemin; Cai, Yaqi

2016-01-01

The occurrence and distribution of 13 target compounds, including eight parabens, four chlorinated parabens and p-hydroxybenzoic acid (PHBA), were detected in surface water samples at 35 sampling sites in the Beijing River system, China. The surface water samples were collected from the main rivers and lakes in the urban area monthly from July 2013 to June 2014 (except the frozen period). Laboratory analyses revealed that parabens were ubiquitous in the surface water of Beijing. PHBA was the predominant compound in the surface water samples, with the average concentration of 239 ng L −1 , followed by the total amount of chlorinated parabens (average 50.1 ng/L) and parabens (average 44.3 ng/L). It is noteworthy that octylparaben with longer chain was firstly detected in the surface water. Significant difference was observed for paraben concentrations from different sampling sites, and the highest level of parabens was found in the Xiaotaihou River, which was mainly due to the untreated sewage discharge. Seasonal variation of target compounds in the urban surface water was also studied, and parabens exhibited a different temporal variation from chlorinated derivatives. A combination of factors including high residual chlorine level and water temperature as well as intense ultraviolet radiation might enhance the persistence of chlorinated parabens in chlorinated water during the wet season. Risk assessment showed that parabens and their chlorinated derivatives are not likely to produce biological effects on aquatic ecosystems at current levels in the surface water of Beijing. - Highlights: • Parabens and chlorinated parabens are ubiquitous in surface water in Beijing. • Octylparaben with longer chain was firstly detected in surface water. • Untreated sewage discharge was the main source of parabens in river. • Parabens exhibited a different seasonal variation from chlorinated derivatives. • The risks of target compounds are negligible at environmentally

Spatial distribution, temporal variation and risks of parabens and their chlorinated derivatives in urban surface water in Beijing, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Wenhui; Gao, Lihong [School of Chemistry and Biological Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083 (China); Shi, Yali; Wang, Yuan [State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085 (China); Liu, Jiemin, E-mail: liujm@ustb.edu.cn [School of Chemistry and Biological Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083 (China); Cai, Yaqi, E-mail: caiyaqi@rcees.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085 (China)

2016-01-01

The occurrence and distribution of 13 target compounds, including eight parabens, four chlorinated parabens and p-hydroxybenzoic acid (PHBA), were detected in surface water samples at 35 sampling sites in the Beijing River system, China. The surface water samples were collected from the main rivers and lakes in the urban area monthly from July 2013 to June 2014 (except the frozen period). Laboratory analyses revealed that parabens were ubiquitous in the surface water of Beijing. PHBA was the predominant compound in the surface water samples, with the average concentration of 239 ng L{sup −1}, followed by the total amount of chlorinated parabens (average 50.1 ng/L) and parabens (average 44.3 ng/L). It is noteworthy that octylparaben with longer chain was firstly detected in the surface water. Significant difference was observed for paraben concentrations from different sampling sites, and the highest level of parabens was found in the Xiaotaihou River, which was mainly due to the untreated sewage discharge. Seasonal variation of target compounds in the urban surface water was also studied, and parabens exhibited a different temporal variation from chlorinated derivatives. A combination of factors including high residual chlorine level and water temperature as well as intense ultraviolet radiation might enhance the persistence of chlorinated parabens in chlorinated water during the wet season. Risk assessment showed that parabens and their chlorinated derivatives are not likely to produce biological effects on aquatic ecosystems at current levels in the surface water of Beijing. - Highlights: • Parabens and chlorinated parabens are ubiquitous in surface water in Beijing. • Octylparaben with longer chain was firstly detected in surface water. • Untreated sewage discharge was the main source of parabens in river. • Parabens exhibited a different seasonal variation from chlorinated derivatives. • The risks of target compounds are negligible at

AN APPROACH TO FINANCIAL RISK IN A PORTFOLIO FOR PLANNING THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OF PRODUCTS DERIVED FROM SUGARCANE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thárcylla R.N. Clemente

2015-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Brazil's location and tropical weather conditions are favourable cultivating sugarcane, which has led to Brazil being one of the world's largest producers of sugarcane. The influence of the sugarcane industry on its economy stands out among the indicators of Brazilian economic growth and because the diversified investment when planning the production of products derived from this sector is encouraged. The decision on which derivative (for example, crystal sugar, anhydrous ethanol, or hydrous ethanol to produce from raw sugarcane can be modelled as an investment decision in a portfolio decision problem whenever a combination of these products is considered. As to the future price of these commodities, raw sugarcane is considered to be capital that should be invested. Thus, this paper puts forward a decision model which uses concepts from Decision Analysis and Bayesian Risk Analysis that may well assist the process of managing assets in the Brazilian sugarcane industry by considering the financial aspect when compiling a portfolio for planning production.

Interest Rate Derivative Pricing with Stochastic Volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, B.

2012-01-01

One purpose of exotic derivative pricing models is to enable financial institutions to quantify and manage their financial risk, arising from large books of portfolios. These portfolios consist of many non-standard exotic financial products. Risk is managed by means of the evaluation of sensitivity

Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

Science.gov (United States)

Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

2015-01-01

Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stahlmann, Ralf

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

DUVAS (derivative uv-absorption spectrometer): instrument description and operating manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawthorne, A.R.; Dougherty, J.M.; Metcalfe, C.E.

1980-11-01

DUVAS is a real-time, field-portable spectrometer capable of monitoring a variety of aromatic organic vapors and inorganic gases at sub-ppM concentrations. The instrument is a prototype, microcomputer-controlled, derivative ultraviolet (UV) absorption spectrometer (DUVAS) developed primarily for area monitoring at coal conversion facilities, although other important occupational and environmental monitoring applications for compounds such as SO 2 , NO/sub x/, NH 3 , and HCHO are also being pursued

Synthetic or Food-Derived Vitamin C?Are They Equally Bioavailable?

OpenAIRE

Carr, Anitra C.; Vissers, Margreet C. M.

2013-01-01

Vitamin C (ascorbate) is an essential water-soluble micronutrient in humans and is obtained through the diet, primarily from fruits and vegetables. In vivo, vitamin C acts as a cofactor for numerous biosynthetic enzymes required for the synthesis of amino acid-derived macromolecules, neurotransmitters, and neuropeptide hormones, and is also a cofactor for various hydroxylases involved in the regulation of gene transcription and epigenetics. Vitamin C was first chemically synthesized in the ea...

Healthy younger and older adults control foot placement to avoid small obstacles during gait primarily by modulating step width

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schulz Brian W

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are a significant problem in the older population. Most falls occur during gait, which is primarily regulated by foot placement. Variability of foot placement has been associated with falls, but these associations are inconsistent and generally for smooth, level flooring. This study investigates the control of foot placement and the associated gait variability in younger and older men and women (N=7/group, total N=28 while walking at three different speeds (slow, preferred, and fast across a control surface with no obstacles and surfaces with multiple (64 small (10cm long ×13mm high visible and hidden obstacles. Results Minimum obstacle distance between the shoe and nearest obstacle during each footfall was greater on the visible obstacles surface for older subjects because some of them chose to actively avoid obstacles. This obstacle avoidance strategy was implemented primarily by modulating step width and to a lesser extent step length as indicated by linear regressions of step width and length variability on minimum obstacle distance. Mean gait speed, step length, step width, and step time did not significantly differ by subject group, flooring surface, or obstacle avoidance strategy. Conclusions Some healthy older subjects choose to actively avoid small obstacles that do not substantially perturb their gait by modulating step width and, to a lesser extent, step length. It is not clear if this obstacle avoidance strategy is appropriate and beneficial or overcautious and maladaptive, as it results in fewer obstacles encountered at a consequence of a less efficient gait pattern that has been shown to indicate increased fall risk. Further research is needed on the appropriateness of strategy selection when the environmental demands and/or task requirements have multiple possible completion strategies with conflicting objectives (i.e. perceived safety vs. efficiency.

PERCEPTION OF MERCURY RISK INFORMATION

Science.gov (United States)

Approximately 8% of American women have blood Mercury levels exceeding the EPA reference dose (a dose below which symptoms would be unlikely). The children of these women are at risk of neurological deficits (lower IQ scores) primarily because of the mother's consumption of conta...

AN OVERVIEW ON STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS FIELDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirela NICHITA

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present a history and an evolution of concepts of risk and risk management in economic, respectively financial fields, highlighting the usefulness (or not and complexity of tools for risk assessment developed over time. The main objective of risk management is to reduce costs and increase the value of company and stakeholders gains; also, a coherent risk management strategy may improve entity capital structure which will derive in a healthy financing policy. The risk and risk management field has been developed merely after the second world war and creates the favourable context of a new C position in business chart – Chief Risk Officer. The paper will explore the etymology of term risk correlated with the uncertainty. Research on risk and risk management is not possible without taking into account the derivatives market.

49 CFR 37.195 - Purchase or lease of OTRBs by private entities not primarily in the business of transporting people.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... primarily in the business of transporting people. 37.195 Section 37.195 Transportation Office of the... transporting people. This section applies to all purchases or leases of new vehicles by private entities which are not primarily engaged in the business of transporting people, with respect to buses delivered to...

Clinical Perspective Youth violence risk assessment: gaps in local ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

International literature on violence risk assessment indicates that although a number of instruments designed to assess youth violence risk exist, many primarily focus on identifying psychopathic tendencies in young people, which has stimulated much debate amongst scholars. In addition to paying careful attention to the ...

Year-end seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives

OpenAIRE

Christopher J. Neely; Drew B. Winters

2005-01-01

We examine the markets for one-month LIBOR futures contracts and options on those futures for a year-end price effect consistent with the previously identified year-end rate increase in one-month LIBOR. The cash market rate increase appears in forward rates and derivative prices, which allows the derivatives to properly hedge year-end interest rate risk. However, while the year-end effect appears in the derivative contract, these derivative contracts provide biased forecasts of both future in...

Regulatory and management requirements for investigation-derived waste generated during environmental investigations and cleanups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clary, M.B.

1994-01-01

Environmental cleanup efforts often result in the generation of waste materials, such as soil samples, drill cuttings, decontamination water, drilling muds, personal protective equipment, and disposable sampling equipment. The management of associated with site characterization and remediation issues is a complicated issue at many CERCLA/RCRA facilities throughout the country, primarily because of the federal hazardous waste regulations. The hazardous waste regulations were intended to apply to the active generation of hazardous waste at industrial facilities and do not often make sense when applied to sites con by poor disposal practices of the past. In order to manage investigation derived waste in a more rational, logical manner, EPA issued guidance on the management of investigation-derived waste (IDW) at Superfund sites in January, 1992. The basic intent of the EPA guidance is to provide Superfund Site Managers with options for handling, managing, and disposing of IDW. The second part of this paper provides a detailed analysis of current IDW practices at various Department of Energy (DOE) facilities and Superfund sites across the nation. Some sites, particularly the DOE facilities, with more complicated on-going cleanup efforts have developed site-specific written procedures for managing IDW, often incorporating risk assessment. In come cases, these site-specific policies are going farther than the current EPA and Colorado policies in terms of conservatively managing IDW

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

76 FR 16587 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-24

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for... other things, would implement DCO Core Principle D (Risk Management) and would establish a related... framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and promote market integrity within the financial system...

Approach and issues toward development of risk-based release standards for radioactive scrap metal recycle and reuse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.Y.; Nieves, L.A.; Nabelssi, B.K.; LePoire, D.J.

1994-01-01

The decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities is expected to generate large amounts of slightly radioactive scrap metal (RSM). It is likely that some of these materials will be suitable for recycling and reuse. The amount of scrap steel from DOE facilities, for instance, is estimated to be more than one million tons (Hertzler 1993). However, under current practice and without the establishment of acceptable recycling standards, the RSM would be disposed of primarily as radioactive low-level waste (LLW). In the United States, no specific standards have been developed for the unrestricted release of bulk contaminated materials. Although standards for unrestricted release of radioactive surface contamination (NRC 1974) have existed for about 20 years, the release of materials is not commonly practiced because of the lack of risk-based justifications. Recent guidance from international bodies (IAEA 1988) has established a basis for deriving risk-based release limits for radioactive materials. It is important, therefore, to evaluate the feasibility of recycling and associated issues necessary for the establishment of risk-based release limits for the radioactive metals

Application of different measures of bioavailability to support the derivation of risk-based remedial benchmarks for PHC-contaminated sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephenson, G. [Stantec Consulting Ltd., Surrey, BC (Canada)

2009-07-01

Risk estimates and exposure scenarios hardly ever take into consideration site-specific bioavailability of contaminants. Risk assessors frequently adopt the assumption that a contaminant in soils is 100 percent bioavailable, resulting in an overestimation of the risks associated with contamination. Remedial targets or benchmarks derived in light of this assumption are needlessly low and might be technically unattainable or prohibitive in terms of cost. This presentation discussed a research project whose goal was to develop a tool kit to measure or determine site-specific bioavailability of contaminants (PHCs) in soils to ecological receptors. Tools that were discussed included: biological measures such as toxicity tests, contaminant residues in tissues, and bioaccumulation tests. Chemical measures such as bioaccessibility tests and other biomimetic devices (SPMDs), biotic ligand modeling, and chemical extractions were also presented. Preliminary investigation results were provided. Other topics that were discussed included: single-species toxicity tests; preliminary comparisons; the site; bioaccumulation; and toxicity to earthworms. It was concluded that total soil and water-extractable concentrations did not correlate well with toxicity. tabs., figs.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

2014-05-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

Science.gov (United States)

Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

2014-01-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

Introduction of Credit Derivatives and Valuation of Credit Default Swap

OpenAIRE

Han, Lu

2006-01-01

The credit derivative market was established at the beginning of the 1990s since the emergence of credit derivatives fits the rapid development of the whole derivatives market. However, compare to other derivative market, this market is still small and incomplete. As with other derivatives, credit derivatives can be used to either take more risk or hedge it, hence various credit derivatives instruments are accepted and widely used by market participants such as banks, insurance companies, etc...

Strategies for risk management using the paper markets [to minimize oil price risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annesley, M.

1993-01-01

The severe price movement experienced within energy markets during the last few years have awakened significant interest in hedging, and other uses of the futures, options, forward and derivative markets, to minimise price risk. There are two basic strands of structure of the markets now available for risk mangement. The first of these is the Exchange markets (IPE, NYMEX, and SIMEX) providing various futures and options alternatives; the second is the forward cargo contracts. The liquidity in these forward cargo markets, is variable but the contracts do provide some hedging and price risk management opportunities, which supplement and complement the Exchange markets, particularly for the professional risk managers and market makers. A range of forward markets is potentially available serving all regions. The more recent development of widely used derivative contracts, notably the swaps and price triggering in physical sale contracts, gives further alternatives from which interested companies may choose. The derivative market, although by definition off-exchange' may use either the Exchanges, forward markets or various oil publications for establishing their prices. Therefore, Exchange futures and options, forward markets and either standard or individually tailored derivatives all provide possible solutions to the risk management needs of coping with today's volatile prices. (author)

The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

2014-01-01

textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Risk Estimate Tool (PREsTo) Predicts Outcomes in PSC: A Derivation & Validation Study Using Machine Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, John E; Vesterhus, Mette; McCauley, Bryan M; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Schlicht, Erik M; Juran, Brian D; Gossard, Andrea A; LaRusso, Nicholas F; Gores, Gregory J; Karlsen, Tom H; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N

2018-05-09

Improved methods are needed to risk stratify and predict outcomes in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Therefore, we sought to derive and validate a new prediction model and compare its performance to existing surrogate markers. The model was derived using 509 subjects from a multicenter North American cohort and validated in an international multicenter cohort (n=278). Gradient boosting, a machine based learning technique, was used to create the model. The endpoint was hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage or encephalopathy). Subjects with advanced PSC or cholangiocarcinoma at baseline were excluded. The PSC risk estimate tool (PREsTo) consists of 9 variables: bilirubin, albumin, serum alkaline phosphatase (SAP) times the upper limit of normal (ULN), platelets, AST, hemoglobin, sodium, patient age and the number of years since PSC was diagnosed. Validation in an independent cohort confirms PREsTo accurately predicts decompensation (C statistic 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.95) and performed well compared to MELD score (C statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.84), Mayo PSC risk score (C statistic 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.92) and SAP statistic 0.65, 95% CI 0.55-0.73). PREsTo continued to be accurate among individuals with a bilirubin statistic 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.96) and when the score was re-applied at a later course in the disease (C statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.64-0.95). PREsTo accurately predicts hepatic decompensation in PSC and exceeds the performance among other widely available, noninvasive prognostic scoring systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Zernike, W; Henderson, A

1999-06-01

This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

Operational risk and e-banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şerbu, R.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Banking involves a variety of risks. Under Basel II, the main risks are the monitored credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Frequently, operational risks are underestimated, considering that they would not affect the optimal activity of a bank. However, past experience of some credit institutions have shown that operational risk is an important cause of financial losses in the banking sector. Operational risk is generated by a complex of factors that manifests primarily as a result of direct customer interaction with the credit institution. In this context, the provision of e-banking services reduces direct contact with bank customers and thus reduces potential losses arising from operational risk. In sum, we consider it necessary to be aware of the link between operational risk and e-banking services promoted by banks and of the importance of this connection especially in a financial environment affected by the financial crisis.

Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, Theo C.M.; Wensem, Joke van; Montforts, Mark; Hart, Andy; Aagaard, Alf; Alix, Anne; Boesten, Jos; Bopp, Stephanie K.; Brown, Colin; Capri, Ettore; Forbes, Valery; Köpp, Herbert; Liess, Matthias; Luttik, Robert; Maltby, Lorraine

2012-01-01

General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching concept for the development of SPGs, which will likely facilitate communication with stakeholders in general and risk managers in particular. It is proposed to develop SPG options for 7 key drivers for ecosystem services (microbes, algae, non target plants (aquatic and terrestrial), aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial non target arthropods including honeybees, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates, and vertebrates), covering the ecosystem services that could potentially be affected by the use of pesticides. These SPGs need to be defined in 6 dimensions: biological entity, attribute, magnitude, temporal and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have a protection status in legislation, protection may be at the individual level. To protect the provisioning and supporting services provided by microbes it may be sufficient to protect them at the functional group level. To protect biodiversity impacts need to be assessed at least at the scale of the watershed/landscape. - Research highlights: ► How to define specific protection goals (SPGs) for environmental risk assessment? ► The process uses the ecosystem services (ES

The carcinogenic risks of low-LET and high-LET ionizing radiations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1991-08-01

This report presents a discussion on risk from ionizing radiations to human populations. Important new information on human beings has come mainly from further follow-up of existing epidemiological studies, notably the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and the ankylosing spondylitis patients; from new epidemiological surveys, such as the patients treated for cancer of the uterine cervix; and from combined surveys, including workers exposed in underground mines. Since the numerous and complex differences among the different study populations introduce factors that influence the risk estimates derived in ways that are not completely understood, it is not clear how to combine the different risk estimates obtained. These factors involve complex biological and physical variables distributed over time. Because such carcinogenic effects occur too infrequently to be demonstrated at low doses, the risks of low-dose radiation can be estimated only by interpolation from observations at high doses on the basis of theoretical concepts, mathematical models and available empirical evidence, primarily the epidemiological surveys of large populations exposed to ionizing radiation. In spite of a considerable amount of research, only recently has there has been efforts to apply the extensive laboratory data in animals to define the dose-incidence relationship in the low dose region. There simply are insufficient data in the epidemiological studies of large human populations to estimate risk coefficients directly from exposure to low doses. The risk estimates for the carcinogenic effects of radiation have been, in the past, somewhat low and reassessment of the numerical values is now necessary

Lamin A/C mutation affecting primarily the right side of the heart

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Ollila

2013-04-01

Full Text Available LMNA mutations are amongst the most important causes of familial dilated cardiomyopathy. The most important cause of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC is desmosomal pathology. The aim of the study was to elucidate the role of LMNA mutations among Finnish cardiomyopathy patients. We screened 135 unrelated cardiomyopathy patients for LMNA mutations. Because of unusual phenotype, two patients were screened for the known Finnish ARVC-related mutations of desmosomal genes, and their Plakophilin-2b gene was sequenced. Myocardial samples from two patients were examined by immunohistochemical plakoglobin staining and in one case by electron microscopy. We found a new LMNA mutation Phe237Ser in a family of five affected members with a cardiomyopathy affecting primarily the right side of the heart. The phenotype resembles ARVC but does not fulfill the Task Force Criteria. The main clinical manifestations of the mutation were severe tricuspid insufficiency, right ventricular enlargement and failure. Three of the affected patients died of the heart disease, and the two living patients received heart transplants at ages 44 and 47. Electron microscopy showed nuclear blebbing compatible with laminopathy. Immunohisto - chemical analysis did not suggest desmosomal pathology. No desmosomal mutations were found. The Phe237Ser LMNA mutation causes a phenotype different from traditional cardiolaminopathy. Our findings suggest that cardiomyopathy affecting primarily the right side of the heart is not always caused by desmosomal pathology. Our observations highlight the challenges in classifying cardiomyopathies, as there often is significant overlap between the traditional categories.

Finansal Risklerin Yönetilmesinde Türev Ürünlerin Kullanımı: Borsa İstanbul (Bist 100 Endeksi’ndeki Şirketler Üzerine Bir Araştırma (Usage Derivatives In Management Financial Risks: A Study On Firms In Borsa Istanbul (Bist 100 Stock Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erdal YILMAZ

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Firms that experience risks as a result of their activities, use various tools to manage these risks and be protected against them. One of the most significant tools used for protection against financial risks is derivatives. Derivatives used by firms to eliminate the financial risks caused by uncertainty, future price changes and other factors, contribute to diminish fluctuations on future prices and market mechanism to operate in a reliable environment. In this study, after informing about primary derivative products, research is focused on the level of usage of derivatives against risks caused by financial tools by firms registered on BIST 100 stock index operating in other than financial sector and which derivative products are being used by mentioned firms. In the result, it is founded that in 2013, 36 % of the firms and in 2014, 45 % of the firms in the context of the study use derivative products against financial risks. It is also founded that firms use swap contracts against interest risks, and futures contracts are preferred by firms against exchange risk. In addition to this, option contracts are mostly used against other price risks.

City-Level Adult Stroke Prevalence in Relation to Remote Sensing Derived PM2.5 Adjusting for Unhealthy Behaviors and Medical Risk Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Z.

2018-04-01

This research explores the use of PM2.5 gird derived from remote sensing for assessing the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (ambient air pollution of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less) on stroke, adjusting for unhealthy behaviors and medical risk factors. Health data was obtained from the newly published CDC "500 Cities Project" which provides city- and census tract-level small area estimates for chronic disease risk factors, and clinical preventive service use for the largest 500 cities in the United States. PM2.5 data was acquired from the "The Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), V1 (1998-2012)" datasets. Average PM2.5 were calculated for each city using a GIS zonal statistics function. Map data visualization and pattern comparison, univariate linear regression, and a multivariate linear regression model fitted using a generalized linear model via penalized maximum likelihood found that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 may increase the risk of stroke. Increasing physical activity, reducing smoking and body weight, enough sleeping, controlling diseases such as blood pressure, coronary heart disease, diabetes, and cholesterol, may mitigate the effect. PM2.5 grids derived from moderate resolution satellite remote sensing imagery may offer a unique opportunity to fill the data gap due to limited ground monitoring at broader scales. The evidence of raised stroke prevalence risk in high PM2.5 areas would support targeting of policy interventions on such areas to reduce pollution levels and protect human health.

CITY-LEVEL ADULT STROKE PREVALENCE IN RELATION TO REMOTE SENSING DERIVED PM2.5 ADJUSTING FOR UNHEALTHY BEHAVIORS AND MEDICAL RISK FACTORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Hu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This research explores the use of PM2.5 gird derived from remote sensing for assessing the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (ambient air pollution of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less on stroke, adjusting for unhealthy behaviors and medical risk factors. Health data was obtained from the newly published CDC “500 Cities Project” which provides city- and census tract-level small area estimates for chronic disease risk factors, and clinical preventive service use for the largest 500 cities in the United States. PM2.5 data was acquired from the “The Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD, V1 (1998–2012” datasets. Average PM2.5 were calculated for each city using a GIS zonal statistics function. Map data visualization and pattern comparison, univariate linear regression, and a multivariate linear regression model fitted using a generalized linear model via penalized maximum likelihood found that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 may increase the risk of stroke. Increasing physical activity, reducing smoking and body weight, enough sleeping, controlling diseases such as blood pressure, coronary heart disease, diabetes, and cholesterol, may mitigate the effect. PM2.5 grids derived from moderate resolution satellite remote sensing imagery may offer a unique opportunity to fill the data gap due to limited ground monitoring at broader scales. The evidence of raised stroke prevalence risk in high PM2.5 areas would support targeting of policy interventions on such areas to reduce pollution levels and protect human health.

Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persson, B.R.R.

1983-01-01

This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

General risks for tunnelling projects: An overview

Science.gov (United States)

Siang, Lee Yong; Ghazali, Farid E. Mohamed; Zainun, Noor Yasmin; Ali, Roslinda

2017-10-01

Tunnels are indispensable when installing new infrastructure as well as when enhancing the quality of existing urban living due to their unique characteristics and potential applications. Over the past few decades, there has been a significant increase in the building of tunnels, world-wide. Tunnelling projects are complex endeavors, and risk assessment for tunnelling projects is likewise a complex process. Risk events are often interrelated. Occurrence of a technical risk usually carries cost and schedule consequences. Schedule risks typically impact cost escalation and project overhead. One must carefully consider the likelihood of a risk's occurrence and its impact in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. A project's goals, organization, and environment impacts in the context of a specific set of project conditions and circumstances. Some projects are primarily schedule driven; other projects are primarily cost or quality driven. Whether a specific risk event is perceived fundamentally as a cost risk or a schedule risk is governed by the project-specific context. Many researchers have pointed out the significance of recognition and control of the complexity, and risks of tunnelling projects. Although all general information on a project such as estimated duration, estimated cost, and stakeholders can be obtained, it is still quite difficult to accurately understand, predict and control the overall situation and development trends of the project, leading to the risks of tunnelling projects. This paper reviews all the key risks for tunnelling projects from several case studies that have been carried out by other researchers. These risks have been identified and reviewed in this paper. As a result, the current risk management plan in tunnelling projects can be enhanced by including all these reviewed risks as key information.

Semi-Competing Risks Data Analysis: Accounting for Death as a Competing Risk When the Outcome of Interest Is Nonterminal.

Science.gov (United States)

Haneuse, Sebastien; Lee, Kyu Ha

2016-05-01

Hospital readmission is a key marker of quality of health care. Notwithstanding its widespread use, however, it remains controversial in part because statistical methods used to analyze readmission, primarily logistic regression and related models, may not appropriately account for patients who die before experiencing a readmission event within the time frame of interest. Toward resolving this, we describe and illustrate the semi-competing risks framework, which refers to the general setting where scientific interest lies with some nonterminal event (eg, readmission), the occurrence of which is subject to a terminal event (eg, death). Although several statistical analysis methods have been proposed for semi-competing risks data, we describe in detail the use of illness-death models primarily because of their relation to well-known methods for survival analysis and the availability of software. We also describe and consider in detail several existing approaches that could, in principle, be used to analyze semi-competing risks data, including composite end point and competing risks analyses. Throughout we illustrate the ideas and methods using data on N=49 763 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized between 2011 and 2013 with a principle discharge diagnosis of heart failure. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

A quantitative risk assessment of exposure to adventitious agents in a cell culture-derived subunit influenza vaccine.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregersen, Jens-Peter

2008-06-19

A risk-assessment model has demonstrated the ability of a new cell culture-based vaccine manufacturing process to reduce the level of any adventitious agent to a million-fold below infectious levels. The cell culture-derived subunit influenza vaccine (OPTAFLU), Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics) is produced using Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells to propagate seasonal viral strains, as an alternative to embryonated chicken-eggs. As only a limited range of mammalian viruses can grow in MDCK cells, similar to embryonated eggs, MDCK cells can act as an effective filter for a wide range of adventitious agents that might be introduced during vaccine production. However, the introduction of an alternative cell substrate (for example, MDCK cells) into a vaccine manufacturing process requires thorough investigations to assess the potential for adventitious agent risk in the final product, in the unlikely event that contamination should occur. The risk assessment takes into account the entire manufacturing process, from initial influenza virus isolation, through to blending of the trivalent subunit vaccine and worst-case residual titres for the final vaccine formulation have been calculated for >20 viruses or virus families. Maximum residual titres for all viruses tested were in the range of 10(-6) to 10(-16) infectious units per vaccine dose. Thus, the new cell culture-based vaccine manufacturing process can reduce any adventitious agent to a level that is unable to cause infection.

Hydrogen peroxide production is not primarily increased in human myotubes established from type 2 diabetic subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Minet, A D; Gaster, M

2011-09-01

Increased oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction have been implicated in the development of insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes. To date, it is unknown whether increased mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) production in skeletal muscle from patients with type 2 diabetes is primarily increased or a secondary adaptation to environmental, lifestyle, and hormonal factors. This study investigates whether ROS production is primarily increased in isolated diabetic myotubes. Mitochondrial membrane potential, hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)), superoxide, and mitochondrial mass were determined in human myotubes precultured under normophysiological conditions. Furthermore, the corresponding ATP synthesis was measured in isolated mitochondria. Muscle biopsies were taken from 10 lean subjects, 10 obese subjects, and 10 subjects with type 2 diabetes; satellite cells were isolated, cultured, and differentiated to myotubes. Mitochondrial mass, membrane potential/mitochondrial mass, and superoxide-production/mitochondrial mass were not different between groups. In contrast, H(2)O(2) production/mitochondrial mass and ATP production were significantly reduced in diabetic myotubes compared to lean controls (P production is not primarily increased in diabetic myotubes but rather is reduced. Moreover, the comparable ATP/H(2)O(2) ratios indicate that the reduced ROS production in diabetic myotubes parallels the reduced ATP production because ROS production in diabetic myotubes must be considered to be in a proportion comparable to lean. Thus, the increased ROS production seen in skeletal muscle of type 2 diabetic patients is an adaptation to the in vivo conditions.

Approaches to acceptable risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whipple, C.

1997-01-01

Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN EUROPE

OpenAIRE

SLOBODAN CEROVIC; MARINA PEPIC

2011-01-01

Financial derivatives (interest rate futures, options and swaps) are a very simple way to minimize interest rate risk and therefore are extremely popular. The value of interest rate derivatives transactions in the world is increasing dramatically. Unfortunately, this is not the case with developing countries in Europe. Although significantly increased in the last decade, interest rate derivatives markets in developing countries are still in nascent stage. In most developing countries still t...

Price models for oil derivates in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemac, F.; Saver, A.

1995-01-01

In Slovenia, a law is currently applied according to which any change in the price of oil derivatives is subject to the Governmental approval. Following the target of getting closer to the European Union, the necessity has arisen of finding ways for the introduction of liberalization or automated approach to price modifications depending on oscillations of oil derivative prices on the world market and the rate of exchange of the American dollar. It is for this reason that at the Agency for Energy Restructuring we made a study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development regarding this issue. We analysed the possible models for the formation of oil derivative prices for Slovenia. Based on the assessment of experiences of primarily the west European countries, we proposed three models for the price formation for Slovenia. In future, it is expected that the Government of the Republic of Slovenia will make a selection of one of the proposed models to be followed by enforcement of price liberalization. The paper presents two representative models for price formation as used in Austria and Portugal. In the continuation the authors analyse the application of three models that they find suitable for the use in Slovenia. (author)

X-ray and CT signs of connective tissue dysplasia in patients with primarily diagnosed infiltrative pulmonary tuberculosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sukhanova, L.A.; Sharmazanova, O.P.

2009-01-01

The x-ray signs of connective tissue systemic dysplasia (CTSD) in patients with primarily diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis was investigated. Fifty-four patients (28 med and 26 women aged 18-70) with primarily diagnosed infiltrative pulmonary tuberculosis underwent x-ray study. In patients with infiltration pulmonary tuberculosis CTSD in the lungs manifests by their diminishing, deformity of the lung pattern, high position of the diaphragm cupola, mediastinum shift to the side of the pathology, which is better seen on CT. The degree of CTSD x-ray signs in the lungs depends on the number of phenotypical signs that is the degree of the disease manifestation. CT allows more accurate determining of the signs of connective tissue dysplasia in which tuberculosis develops

Acceptable level of radiation risk and its perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kusama, Tomoko; Shinozaki, Motoshi; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

1987-01-01

The acceptable level of radiation risk for public members, that is 10 -5 /y, was proposed by ICRP and other international organizations. We studied to survey basic procedures of deriving this value and to derive an acceptable risk value in Japan by using similar procedures. The basic procedures to derive 10 -5 /y were found as follows; (1) 0.1 percent of annual mortality from all diseases, (2) 0.1 percent of life time risk, (3) one percent of mortality from all causes in each age cohort and (4) corresponding value to 1 mSv annual radiation exposure. From these bases we derived the value of 10 -5 /y as acceptable risk level in Japan. The perception to risk level of 10 -5 /y in conventional life was investigated by means of questionnaires for 1,095 college students living in Tokyo. The risks considered in this study were natural background radiation, coffee, skiing, X-ray diagnosis, spontaneous cancer, passive smoking and air pollution. The most acceptable risk was the risk related with natural background radiation. And the risk of natural background radiation was more easily accepted by the students who had knowledges on natural background radiation. On the other hand, the risk from air pollution or passive smoking was the most adverse one. (author)

Nocturnal activity by the primarily diurnal Central American agouti (Dasyprocta punctata) in relation to environmental conditions, resource abundance and predation risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lambert, T.D.; Kays, R.W.; Jansen, P.A.; Aliaga-Rosse, E.; Wikelski, M.

2009-01-01

An animal's fitness is in part based on its ability to manage the inherent risks (foraging costs, predation, exposure to disease) with the benefits (resource gain, access to mates, social interactions) of activity (Abrams 1991, Altizer et al. 2003, Lima & Bednekoff 1999, Rubenstein & Hohmann

Derivation and validation of a simple clinical risk-model in heart failure based on 6 minute walk test performance and NT-proBNP status--do we need specificity for sex and beta-blockers?

Science.gov (United States)

Frankenstein, L; Goode, K; Ingle, L; Remppis, A; Schellberg, D; Nelles, M; Katus, H A; Clark, A L; Cleland, J G F; Zugck, C

2011-02-17

It is unclear whether risk prediction strategies in chronic heart failure (CHF) need to be specific for sex or beta-blockers. We examined this problem and developed and validated the consequent risk models based on 6-minute-walk-test and NT-proBNP. The derivation cohort comprised 636 German patients with systolic dysfunction. They were validated against 676 British patients with similar aetiology. ROC-curves for 1-year mortality identified cut-off values separately for specificity (none, sex, beta-blocker, both). Patients were grouped according to number of cut-offs met (group I/II/III - 0/1/2 cut-offs). Widest separation between groups was achieved with sex- and beta-blocker-specific cut offs. In the derivation population, 1-year mortality was 0%, 8%, 31% for group I, II and III, respectively. In the validation population, 1-year rates in the three risk groups were 2%, 7%, 14%, respectively, after application of the same cut-offs. Risk stratification for CHF should perhaps take sex and beta-blocker usage into account. We derived and independently validated relevant risk models based on 6-minute-walk-tests and NT-proBNP. Specifying sex and use of beta-blockers identified three distinct sub-groups with widely differing prognosis. In clinical practice, it may be appropriate to tailor the intensity of follow-up and/or the treatment strategy according to the risk-group. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 325 - Risk-Based Capital for State Non-Member Banks: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... derivatives, a bank must risk weight (as described in paragraph (c)(2)(iii) of this section) the market value... equity positions (including derivatives) in identical equity issues or equity indices in the same market...: Market Risk C Appendix C to Part 325 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION REGULATIONS...

Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, B; Teng, I L; Muhammad Samudi, Y

2011-11-01

In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysia, and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y(-1) permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77×10(-3) risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19×10(-3) risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

Relative radiological risks derived from different TENORM wastes in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ismail, B.; Teng, I. L.; Muhammad samudi, Y.

2011-01-01

In Malaysia technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) wastes are mainly the product of the oil and gas industry and mineral processing. Among these TENORM wastes are tin tailing, tin slag, gypsum and oil sludge. Mineral processing and oil and gas industries produce large volume of TENORM wastes that has become a radiological concern to the authorities. A study was carried out to assess the radiological risk related to workers working at these disposal sites and landfills as well as to the members of the public should these areas be developed for future land use. Radiological risk was assessed based on the magnitude of radiation hazard, effective dose rates and excess cancer risks. Effective dose rates and excess cancer risks were estimated using RESRAD 6.4 computer code. All data on the activity concentrations of NORM in wastes and sludges used in this study were obtained from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (Malaysia), and they were collected over a period of between 5 and 10 y. Results obtained showed that there was a wide range in the total activity concentrations (TAC) of nuclides in the TENORM wastes. With the exception of tin slag and tin tailing-based TENORM wastes, all other TENORM wastes have TAC values comparable to that of Malaysia's soil. Occupational Effective Dose Rates estimated in all landfill areas were lower than the 20 mSv y -1 permissible dose limit. The average Excess Cancer Risk Coefficient was estimated to be 2.77 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. The effective dose rates for residents living on gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes landfills were estimated to be lower than the permissible dose limit for members of the public, and was also comparable to that of the average Malaysia's ordinary soils. The average excess cancer risk coefficient was estimated to be 3.19 x 10 -3 risk per mSv. Results obtained suggest that gypsum and oil sludge-based TENORM wastes should be exempted from any radiological regulatory

What's the risk? Identifying potential human pathogens within grey-headed flying foxes faeces.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebekah Henry

Full Text Available Pteropus poliocephalus (grey-headed flying foxes are recognised vectors for a range of potentially fatal human pathogens. However, to date research has primarily focused on viral disease carriage, overlooking bacterial pathogens, which also represent a significant human disease risk. The current study applied 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, community analysis and a multi-tiered database OTU picking approach to identify faecal-derived zoonotic bacteria within two colonies of P. poliocephalus from Victoria, Australia. Our data show that sequences associated with Enterobacteriaceae (62.8% ± 24.7%, Pasteurellaceae (19.9% ± 25.7% and Moraxellaceae (9.4% ± 11.8% dominate flying fox faeces. Further colony specific differences in bacterial faecal colonisation patterns were also identified. In total, 34 potential pathogens, representing 15 genera, were identified. However, species level definition was only possible for Clostridium perfringens, which likely represents a low infectious risk due to the low proportion observed within the faeces and high infectious dose required for transmission. In contrast, sequences associated with other pathogenic species clusters such as Haemophilus haemolyticus-H. influenzae and Salmonella bongori-S. enterica, were present at high proportions in the faeces, and due to their relatively low infectious doses and modes of transmissions, represent a greater potential human disease risk. These analyses of the microbial community composition of Pteropus poliocephalus have significantly advanced our understanding of the potential bacterial disease risk associated with flying foxes and should direct future epidemiological and quantitative microbial risk assessments to further define the health risks presented by these animals.

Derivative instruments a guide to theory and practice

CERN Document Server

Eales, Brian

2003-01-01

The authors concentrate on the practicalities of each class of derivative, so that readers can apply the techniques in practice. Product descriptions are supported by detailed spreadsheet models, illustrating the techniques employed, some which are available on the accompanying companion website. This book is ideal reading for derivatives traders, salespersons, financial engineers, risk managers, and other professionals involved to any extent in the application and analysis of OTC derivatives.* Combines theory with valuation to provide overall coverage of the topic area* Pr

Risk premia in energy markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veraart, Almut E.D.; Veraart, Luitgard A.M.

Risk premia between spot and forward prices play a key role in energy markets. This paper derives analytic expressions for such risk premia when spot prices are modelled by Lévy semistationary processes. While the relation between spot and forward prices can be derived using classical no......-arbitrage arguments as long as the underlying commodities are storable, the situation changes in the case of electricity. Hence, in an empirical study based on electricity spot prices and futures from the European Energy Exchange market, we investigate the empirical behaviour of electricity risk premia from...

Stem-cell-derived products: an FDA update.

Science.gov (United States)

Moos, Malcolm

2008-12-01

The therapeutic potential of products derived from stem cells of various types has prompted increasing research and development and public attention. Initiation of human clinical trials in the not-too-distant future is now a realistic possibility. It is, therefore, important to weigh the potential benefits against known, theoretical and totally unsuspected risks in light of current knowledge to ensure that subjects participating in these trials are afforded the most reasonable balance possible between potential risks and potential benefits. There are no apparent differences in fundamental, qualitative biological characteristics between stem-cell-derived products and other cellular therapies regulated by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Existing authorities can, therefore, be applied. Nevertheless, these products do have properties that require careful evaluation.

Nuclear power and investor perceptions of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahal, M.I.; Miller, R.E.

1984-01-01

This paper explores and quantifies the recent Wall Street fears concerning nuclear utilities. An econometric model of investor behavior is presented that quantifies the nuclear risk premium for the period when nuclear fear among investors was at its height, in mid-1984. The principal finding is that the risk premium relates primarily to nuclear construction work in progress (CWIP), rather than to the commercial operation of completed nuclear plants. 7 references, 1 table

Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandre Bona

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

DIFFUSION AND PERCEPTION OF MERCURY RISK INFORMATION

Science.gov (United States)

Approximately 8% of American women have blood Mercury levels exceeding the EPA reference dose (a dose below which symptoms would be unlikely). The children of these women are at risk of neurological deficits (lower IQ scores) primarily because of the mother’s consumption of...

Immunogenicity and safety of a plasma-derived heat-inactivated hepatitis B vaccine (CLB). Studies in volunteers at a low risk of infection with hepatitis B virus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lelie, P. N.; Reesink, H. W.; de Jong-van Manen, S. T.; Dees, P. J.; Reerink-Brongers, E. E.

1984-01-01

The safety and immunogenicity of a plasma-derived heat-inactivated hepatitis B vaccine (CLB) were evaluated in 471 healthy human volunteers, who, both in their occupations and in their private lives, had been at minimal risk of being infected with hepatitis B virus. The first 202 individuals

Dermal bioavailability of benzo[a]pyrene on lampblack: implications for risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Stroo, Hans F; Roy, Timothy A; Liban, Cris B; Kreitinger, Joseph P

2005-06-01

Lampblack is the principal source of contamination in soils at manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites where oil was used as the feedstock. Risks and cleanup criteria at these sites are determined primarily by the total carcinogenic polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) content, particularly the concentration of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Dermal contact with soils at oil-gas MGP sites is a significant component of the overall risks. Seven samples were collected from oil-gas MGP sites and the steady-state dermal fluxes were measured over 96 h in vitro. The standard dermal bioassay technique (in which 3H-BaP is added to the soil matrix) was modified to allow direct measurement of the dermal absorption of the native BaP in the samples. The experimentally derived dermal absorption factors for BaP were 14 to 107 times lower than the default assumption of 15% over 24 h (55-fold lower on average). The dermal fluxes were correlated positively to the total BaP and total carbon concentrations. The measured dermal absorption factors were compared to the default risk-assessment calculations for all seven samples. The calculated excess cancer risk was reduced as a result of using the measured absorption factors by 97% on average (with reductions ranging from 93 to 99%). This work indicates the risks at oil-gas MGP sites currently are overestimated by one to two orders of magnitude, and provides a protocol for the testing and data analysis needed to generate site-specific cleanup levels.

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

2007-02-01

Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

Acceptable level of radiation risk and its perception

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kusama, Tomoko; Shinozaki, Motoshi; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

1987-03-01

The acceptable level of radiation risk for public members, that is 10/sup -5//y, was proposed by ICRP and other international organizations. We studied to survey basic procedures of deriving this value and to derive an acceptable risk value in Japan by using similar procedures. The basic procedures to derive 10/sup -5//y were found as follows; (1) 0.1 percent of annual mortality from all diseases, (2) 0.1 percent of life time risk, (3) one percent of mortality from all causes in each age cohort and (4) corresponding value to 1 mSv annual radiation exposure. From these bases we derived the value of 10/sup -5//y as acceptable risk level in Japan. The perception to risk level of 10/sup -5//y in conventional life was investigated by means of questionnaires for 1,095 college students living in Tokyo. The risks considered in this study were natural background radiation, coffee, skiing, X-ray diagnosis, spontaneous cancer, passive smoking and air pollution. The most acceptable risk was the risk related with natural background radiation. And the risk of natural background radiation was more easily accepted by the students who had knowledges on natural background radiation. On the other hand, the risk from air pollution or passive smoking was the most adverse one.

Ideas concerning the risk problem in technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, K.W.

1975-01-01

Scientific and technical development is primarily meant to improve the quality of life and to reduce mortality. The increased risk thus caused for the individual leads to a longer life expectation of man and to the ethical question of choosing the safety of a technical system. One must critically choose between justifiable effort and risk. Experience in reactor engineering (technical systems with hypothetical extreme risks) leads to considerations of the analysis to determine the risk of large chemical plants for inhabited neighbourhoods and attempts to design a conceptive and computer model for a safety analysis which can be of use in decisions regarding new planning. (HP/LH) [de

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, D. [TD Securities Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada)

1997-08-01

Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management.

Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, D.

1997-01-01

Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a

Radiation risk index for pediatric CT. A patient-derived metric

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samei, Ehsan; Tian, Xiaoyu; Paul Segars, W.; Frush, Donald P.

2017-01-01

There is a benefit in characterizing radiation-induced cancer risk in pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT: a singular metric that represents the whole-body radiation burden while also accounting for age, gender and organ sensitivity. To compute an index of radiation risk for pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT. Using a protocol approved by our institutional review board, 42 pediatric patients (age: 0-16 years, weight: 2-80 kg) were modeled into virtual whole-body anatomical models. Organ doses were estimated for clinical chest and abdominopelvic CT examinations of the patients using validated Monte Carlo simulations of two major scanner models. Using age-, size- and gender-specific organ risk coefficients, the values were converted to normalized effective dose (by dose length product) (denoted as the k factor) and a normalized risk index (denoted as the q factor). An analysis was performed to determine how these factors are correlated with patient age and size for both males and females to provide a strategy to better characterize individualized risk. The k factor was found to be exponentially correlated with the average patient diameter. For both genders, the q factor also exhibited an exponential relationship with both the average patient diameter and with patient age. For both factors, the differences between the scanner models were less than 8%. The study defines a whole-body radiation risk index for chest and abdominopelvic CT imaging, that incorporates individual estimated organ dose values, organ radiation sensitivity, patient size, exposure age and patient gender. This indexing metrology enables the assessment and potential improvement of chest and abdominopelvic CT performance through surveillance of practice dose profiles across patients and may afford improved informed communication. (orig.)

Radiation risk index for pediatric CT. A patient-derived metric

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Samei, Ehsan [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Tian, Xiaoyu [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Durham, NC (United States); Paul Segars, W. [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Frush, Donald P. [Duke University Medical Center, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Division of Pediatric Radiology, Department of Radiology, Durham, NC (United States)

2017-12-15

There is a benefit in characterizing radiation-induced cancer risk in pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT: a singular metric that represents the whole-body radiation burden while also accounting for age, gender and organ sensitivity. To compute an index of radiation risk for pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT. Using a protocol approved by our institutional review board, 42 pediatric patients (age: 0-16 years, weight: 2-80 kg) were modeled into virtual whole-body anatomical models. Organ doses were estimated for clinical chest and abdominopelvic CT examinations of the patients using validated Monte Carlo simulations of two major scanner models. Using age-, size- and gender-specific organ risk coefficients, the values were converted to normalized effective dose (by dose length product) (denoted as the k factor) and a normalized risk index (denoted as the q factor). An analysis was performed to determine how these factors are correlated with patient age and size for both males and females to provide a strategy to better characterize individualized risk. The k factor was found to be exponentially correlated with the average patient diameter. For both genders, the q factor also exhibited an exponential relationship with both the average patient diameter and with patient age. For both factors, the differences between the scanner models were less than 8%. The study defines a whole-body radiation risk index for chest and abdominopelvic CT imaging, that incorporates individual estimated organ dose values, organ radiation sensitivity, patient size, exposure age and patient gender. This indexing metrology enables the assessment and potential improvement of chest and abdominopelvic CT performance through surveillance of practice dose profiles across patients and may afford improved informed communication. (orig.)

RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgeta Soava

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks inherent of the business in digital environments, but they not represent only a particular case of the risks they are exposed, in general, the companies. In the paper we put in evidence the significance in general business, risks in e-business, then we added a description of the types of security risks, an exemplification of these and a series of test scenarios, and finally to make a analysis of operational solutions of risk management

Risk assessment of topically applied products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

2007-01-01

The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

Evaluation of a dental pulp-derived cell sheet cultured on amniotic membrane substrate.

Science.gov (United States)

Honjo, Ken-ichi; Yamamoto, Toshiro; Adachi, Tetsuya; Amemiya, Takeshi; Mazda, Osam; Kanamura, Narisato; Kita, Masakazu

2015-01-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) are transplanted for periodontal tissue regeneration, and the periodontal ligament (PDL) is regenerated using a cultured cell sheet. This cultured cell sheet is prepared using PDL-derived cells, growth factors, and amniotic membrane (AM). Dental pulp (DP)-derived cells can be easily obtained from extracted wisdom teeth, proliferate rapidly, and are less susceptible to bacterial infection than PDL-derived cells. Thus, to prepare a novel cell sheet, DP-derived cells were cultured on AM as a culture substrate for immunohistochemical examination. Wisdom teeth extracted from three adults were cut along the cement-enamel border. DP tissue was collected, minced, and primarily cultured. After three or four passage cultures, DP-derived cells were cultured on AM, followed by hematoxylin-eosin (H-E) and immunofluorescence staining. DP-derived cells cultured on AM formed a layered structure. Cells positive for vimentin, Ki-67, ZO-1, desmoplakin, CD29, 44, 105 or 146, STRO-1, collagen IV or VII or laminin 5 or α5 chain were localized. DP-derived cells proliferated on AM, while retaining the properties of DP, which allowed the cultured cell sheet to be prepared. In addition, the cultured cell sheet contained MSC, which suggests its potential application in periodontal tissue regeneration.

East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul

2018-01-01

To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

An estrogen-associated dietary pattern and breast cancer risk in the Swedish Mammography Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Holly R; Bergkvist, Leif; Wolk, Alicja

2015-11-01

High endogenous hormone levels have been associated with breast cancer and dietary factors have the potential to influence breast cancer risk through effects on hormone levels. Dietary patterns derived from reduced rank regression provide a way to identify food groups correlated with hormones and subsequently examine food patterns that may be associated with breast cancer risk. We investigated whether a dietary pattern previously correlated with estradiol and estrone sulfate was associated with breast cancer in the prospective Swedish Mammography Cohort. Among 37,004 primarily postmenopausal women diet was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). During 15 years of follow-up 1,603 cases of breast cancer were identified. A higher estrogen dietary pattern score was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Women in the highest quartile of estrogen pattern score had a 29% (95% CI = 1.08-1.55) increased risk of breast cancer compared to women in the lowest quartile (p(trend) = 0.006). When the association was examined by estrogen-receptor status, it was only significant for those with estrogen-receptor-positive tumors; however, in the competing risk analysis there were no significant differences in the effect estimates by receptor subtype (p(heterogeneity) = 0.65). Our findings suggest that a dietary pattern associated with higher estrogen levels may increase breast cancer risk. However, whether the influence of this dietary pattern is through a direct effect on estrogen levels deserves further study. © 2015 UICC.

The modern way of trading with options such derivative securities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragosavac Miloš

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Participants in the financial markets today are faced with a number of financial risks. This raises the question, what measures and instruments should be used, to minimize the risks to the lowest extent possible. One form of protection options are. Options are derivative securities, namely financial derivatives, which can be used to protect against the risks associated with trading. The reason for the earnings at risk. It is usually used to hedge price risk, which is the word of possession and the right to sell the right to purchase certain assets at a predetermined fixed price that applies to a specific date in the future. In this way a protection against adverse price changes in the future. As their name implies, is a selection of options, where the owner decides whether the option will be exercised or not. That choice is not free, because in case of insurance premiums paid by commission from potential financial risk. Many of the securities issued by the company include the option.

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Madsen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ); Scientific Opinion on the risk of transmission of classical scrapie via in vivo derived embryo transfer in ovine animals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine; Baggesen, Dorte Lau

. Under natural exposure conditions, animals that are heterozygous or homozygous A136R154R171 display respectively a low or negligible risk of being infected. The genetic control of the susceptibility to classical scrapie is also likely to impact on the risk of transmitting the disease via embryo transfer......The risk of transmission of classical scrapie via the transfer of in vivo derived embryo in ovines was assessed, taking into account the scientific information made available since the last EFSA opinion on this topic (2010) (see http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/1429.htm). The potential...... impact of PrP genotype of the embryo and/or of the ram and donor ewe on this risk was also assessed. The new data made available over the last three years further reinforce the view that classical scrapie could be vertically transmitted in sheep. Since the possibility of such vertical transmission...

Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...

CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk-investigation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.

1981-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for regulating radioactive airborne effluents in the US. A comprehensive, integrated Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System (CRRIS) is being developed to support EPA's radiation standards development. This modular system consists primarily of five computer codes and their supporting data bases for estimating environmental transport and radiation doses and risks. Health effects are estimated on the basis of a life-table methodology developed by EPA. CRRIS is designed to provide EPA with a reasonable and flexible way of assessing the risk to man associated with radionuclide releases to the atmosphere

Undesired Plant-Derived Components in Food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dusemund, Birgit; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.; Abraham, Klaus; Cartus, Alexander; Schrenk, Dieter

2017-01-01

Among the various chemical compounds, the class of natural plant-derived substances in the modern food chain is generating increasing concern. Adverse effects encountered may be various and pose risks of acute, subchronic, or chronic toxicity. The underlying mechanisms of toxicity may be

Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

1998-01-01

Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area

Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

1998-01-01

Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area.

Gender differences in the association between westernization and metabolic risk among Greenland Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Marit Eika; Moustgaard, Helene; Bjerregaard, Peter

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: The Inuit have gone through an accelerated process of modernization especially since 1950. Primarily because of the dietary transition, westernisation is expected to influence the Inuit's metabolic risk in a negative way with respect to cardiovascular risk. The aim was to analyze meta...

Reaction pathways of model compounds of biomass-derived oxygenates on Fe/Ni bimetallic surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Weiting; Chen, Jingguang G.

2015-10-01

Controlling the activity and selectivity of converting biomass-derivatives to fuels and valuable chemicals is critical for the utilization of biomass feedstocks. There are primarily three classes of non-food competing biomass, cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. In the current work, glycolaldehyde, furfural and acetaldehyde are studied as model compounds of the three classes of biomass-derivatives. Monometallic Ni(111) and monolayer (ML) Fe/Ni(111) bimetallic surfaces are studied for the reaction pathways of the three biomass surrogates. The ML Fe/Ni(111) surface is identified as an efficient surface for the conversion of biomass-derivatives from the combined results of density functional theory (DFT) calculations and temperature programmed desorption (TPD) experiments. A correlation is also established between the optimized adsorption geometry and experimental reaction pathways. These results should provide helpful insights in catalyst design for the upgrading and conversion of biomass.

Risk factors of coercion among psychiatric inpatients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Christoffer; Starkopf, Liis; Hastrup, Lene Halling

2017-01-01

PURPOSE: Reducing the use of coercion among patients with mental disorders has long been a political priority. However, risk factors for coercive measures have primarily been investigated in smaller studies. To reduce the use of coercion, it is crucial to identify people at risk which we aim to do...... and having children, reduced the risk of being subjected to coercive measure (all p risk factors associated with coercive measures. Our findings can assist researchers in identifying patients at risk of coercion and thereby help...... measure (21.9%). Clinical characteristics were the foremost predictors of coercion and patients with organic mental disorder had the highest increased risk of being subjected to a coercive measure (OR = 5.56; 95% CI = 5.04, 6.14). The risk of coercion was the highest in the first admission and decreased...

Low-Risk Investing without Industry Bets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asness, Clifford S.; Frazzini, Andrea; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2014-01-01

The strategy of buying safe low-beta stocks while shorting (or underweighting) riskier high-beta stocks (“betting against beta”) has been shown to deliver significant risk-adjusted returns. Some have suggested, however, that such “low-risk investing” delivers high returns primarily because...... of industry bets that favor a slowly changing set of stodgy, stable industries. The authors refute this notion by showing that a strategy of betting against beta has delivered positive returns both as an industry-neutral bet within each industry and as a pure bet across industries....

Impact of risk considerations on dosimetry of radiopharmaceuticals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckerman, K.F.

1981-01-01

Estimates of the absorbed dose from clinical procedures involving the administration of radiopharmaceuticals are used primarily to determine the presumed risk of various procedures so that, in-so-far as possible, the selection of a given procedure can be based on a comparison of risk. Although this has been the basic objective, risk evaluation has generally been separated from the dosimetry considerations. In the recent revision of its radiation protection guidance, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has embodied risk considerations in its recommendations and risk concepts have become an integral part of the dosimetric framework. The impact of these considerations on the dosimetric assessments of radiopharmaceuticals and the resulting need for additional information is discussed

Triacylglycerol Accumulation is not primarily affected in Myotubes established from Type 2 Diabetic Subjects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gaster, Michael; Beck-Nielsen, Henning

2006-01-01

In the present study, we investigated triacylglycerol (TAG) accumulation, glucose and fatty acid (FA) uptake, and glycogen synthesis (GS) in human myotubes from healthy, lean, and obese subjects with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D), exposed to increasing palmitate (PA) and oleate (OA...... uptake (P0.05). These results indicate that (1) TAG accumulation is not primarily affected in skeletal muscle tissue of obese and T2D; (2) induced inhibition of oxidative phosphorylation is followed by TAG accumulation...... in skeletal muscle of obese and T2D subjects is adaptive....

International trade standards for commodities and products derived from animals: the need for a system that integrates food safety and animal disease risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, G R; Penrith, M-L; Atkinson, M W; Thalwitzer, S; Mancuso, A; Atkinson, S J; Osofsky, S A

2013-12-01

A case is made for greater emphasis to be placed on value chain management as an alternative to geographically based disease risk mitigation for trade in commodities and products derived from animals. The geographic approach is dependent upon achievement of freedom in countries or zones from infectious agents that cause so-called transboundary animal diseases, while value chain-based risk management depends upon mitigation of animal disease hazards potentially associated with specific commodities or products irrespective of the locality of production. This commodity-specific approach is founded on the same principles upon which international food safety standards are based, viz. hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP). Broader acceptance of a value chain approach enables animal disease risk management to be combined with food safety management by the integration of commodity-based trade and HACCP methodologies and thereby facilitates 'farm to fork' quality assurance. The latter is increasingly recognized as indispensable to food safety assurance and is therefore a pre-condition to safe trade. The biological principles upon which HACCP and commodity-based trade are based are essentially identical, potentially simplifying sanitary control in contrast to current separate international sanitary standards for food safety and animal disease risks that are difficult to reconcile. A value chain approach would not only enable more effective integration of food safety and animal disease risk management of foodstuffs derived from animals but would also ameliorate adverse environmental and associated socio-economic consequences of current sanitary standards based on the geographic distribution of animal infections. This is especially the case where vast veterinary cordon fencing systems are relied upon to separate livestock and wildlife as is the case in much of southern Africa. A value chain approach would thus be particularly beneficial to under-developed regions of

Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

2009-01-01

Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

Cancer risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils determined using bioassay-derived levels of benzo[a]pyrene equivalents.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemieux, Christine L; Long, Alexandra S; Lambert, Iain B; Lundstedt, Staffan; Tysklind, Mats; White, Paul A

2015-02-03

Here we evaluate the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) posed by 10 PAH-contaminated soils using (i) the currently advocated, targeted chemical-specific approach that assumes dose additivity for carcinogenic PAHs and (ii) a bioassay-based approach that employs the in vitro mutagenic activity of the soil fractions to determine levels of benzo[a]pyrene equivalents and, by extension, ELCR. Mutagenic activity results are presented in our companion paper.1 The results show that ELCR values for the PAH-containing fractions, determined using the chemical-specific approach, are generally (i.e., 8 out of 10) greater than those calculated using the bioassay-based approach; most are less than 5-fold greater. Only two chemical-specific ELCR estimates are less than their corresponding bioassay-derived values; differences are less than 10%. The bioassay-based approach, which permits estimation of ELCR without a priori knowledge of mixture composition, proved to be a useful tool to evaluate the chemical-specific approach. The results suggest that ELCR estimates for complex PAH mixtures determined using a targeted, chemical-specific approach are reasonable, albeit conservative. Calculated risk estimates still depend on contentious PEFs and cancer slope factors. Follow-up in vivo mutagenicity assessments will be required to validate the results and their relevance for human health risk assessment of PAH-contaminated soils.

Public perceptions of the risks of an unfamiliar technology: The case of using nuclear energy sources for space missions

Science.gov (United States)

Maharik, Michael

This thesis addresses the public perception of the risk of a technology not widely known to laypeople. Its aims were (1) to characterize public perceptions of the risk of using nuclear energy in space and decisions related to this risk, and (2) to extend the 'mental model' methodology to studying public perception of unfamiliar, risky technologies. A model of the physical processes capable of creating risks from using nuclear energy sources in space was first constructed. Then, knowledge and beliefs related to this topic were elicited from three different groups of people. The generality of the findings was examined in a constructive replication with environmentally-oriented people. The possibility of involving the public in decision-making processes related to engineering macro-design was then investigated. Finally, a communication regarding these risk processes was developed and evaluated in an experiment comparing it with communications produced by NASA. Although they included large portions of the expert model, people's beliefs also had gaps and misconceptions. Respondents often used scientific terms without a clear understanding of what they meant. Respondents' mental models sometimes contained scattered and inconsistent entries. The impact of pre-existing mental models was clearly seen. Different groups of people had different patterns of knowledge and beliefs. Nevertheless, respondents expressed reasonable and coherent opinions on choices among engineering options. The CMU brochure, derived from the study of readers' existing mental models, provided a better risk communication tool than NASA's material, reflecting primarily experts' perspective. The better performance of subjects reading either brochure generally reflected adding knowledge on issues that they had not previously known, rather than correcting wrong beliefs. The communication study confirmed a hypothesis that improving knowledge on risk processes related to the use of a technology causes a more

Effects of mining-derived metals on riffle-dwelling crayfish in southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Allert, Ann L.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Schmitt, Christopher J.; Fairchild, James F.; Brumbaugh, William G.

2012-01-01

Riffle-dwelling crayfish populations were sampled at 16 sites in 4 tributaries of the Spring River located within the Tri-State Mining District in southwest Missouri. Crayfish density, physical habitat quality, and water quality were examined at each site to assess the ecological effects of mining-derived metals on crayfish. Metals (lead, zinc, and cadmium) were analyzed in samples of surface water, sediment, detritus, and whole crayfish. Sites were classified a posteriori into reference, mining, and downstream sites primarily based on metal concentrations in the materials analyzed. Three species of crayfish (Orconectes neglectus neglectus, O. macrus, and O. virilis) were collected during the study; however, only O. n. neglectus was collected at all sites. Mean crayfish densities were significantly lower at mining sites than at reference sites. Mean concentrations of metals were significantly correlated among the materials analyzed and were significantly greater at mining and downstream sites than at reference sites. Principal component analyses showed a separation of sites due to an inverse relationship among crayfish density, metals concentrations, and physical habitat quality variables. Sediment probable-effects quotients and surface-water toxic unit scores were significantly correlated; both indicated risk of toxicity to aquatic biota at several sites. Metals concentrations in whole crayfish at several sites exceeded concentrations known to be toxic to carnivorous wildlife. Mining-derived metals have the potential to impair ecosystem function through decreased organic matter processing and nutrient cycling in streams due to decreased crayfish densities.

Financial derivatives in power marketing: The basics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramesh, V.C.; Ghosh, K.

1996-01-01

With the ongoing changes in the power industry worldwide, electricity is beginning to be traded like other commodities. The use of financial derivative instruments in power markets is on the rise. The purpose of this paper is to explain the role of these derivatives in risk management which is vital for survival in the increasingly competitive industry. Starting with the familiar cash markets, the paper discusses the basics of futures, options, and swap markets as applied to electric energy trading

The COS Method : An Efficient Fourier Method for Pricing Financial Derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fang, F.

2010-01-01

When valuing and risk-managing financial derivatives, practitioners demand fast and accurate prices and sensitivities. Aside from the pricing of non-standard exotic financial derivatives, so-called plain vanilla European options form the basis for the calibration of financial models. As any pricing

Quantitative gene expression profiling of CD45(+) and CD45(-) skeletal muscle-derived side population cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ditte Caroline; Kristiansen, Gitte Qvistgaard; Jensen, Line

2011-01-01

transcripts associated with endothelial cells, Notch signaling and myogenic precursors. By comparing the mRNA signatures of mSPs with those of adipose tissue-derived SP populations, a common endothelial component seemed to reside in both muscle and fat-derived SPCD45(-) entities. However, each SP subset......The skeletal muscle-derived side population (mSP) which highly excludes Hoechst 33342 is composed of CD45(+) and CD45(-) subpopulations; yet, rareness of mSP cells in general has complicated extensive quantitative analysis of gene expression profiles in primarily isolated mSP cells. Here, we...... describe the isolation of adult mouse normal skeletal muscle residing SPCD45(+) and SPCD45(-) cells from a parent mononuclear muscle-derived cell (MDC) population. Relative quantitative real time PCR (RT-PCR) of 64 genes revealed that mSPCD45(-) compared with mSPCD45(+) was enriched for cells expressing...

Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Examining Change in K-3 Teachers' Mathematical Knowledge, Attitudes, and Beliefs: The Case of Primarily Math

Science.gov (United States)

Kutaka, T. S.; Ren, L.; Smith, W. M.; Beattie, H. L.; Edwards, C. P.; Green, J. L.; Chernyavskiy, P.; Stroup, W.; Heaton, R. M.; Lewis, W. J.

2018-01-01

This study examines the impact of the Primarily Math Elementary Mathematics Specialist program on K-3 teachers' mathematical content knowledge for teaching, attitudes toward learning mathematics, and beliefs about mathematics teaching and learning. Three cohorts of teachers participating in the program were compared to a similar group of…

Sweetened beverages, coffee, and tea and depression risk among older US adults.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuguang Guo

Full Text Available Sweetened beverages, coffee, and tea are the most consumed non-alcoholic beverages and may have important health consequences. We prospectively evaluated the consumption of various types of beverages assessed in 1995-1996 in relation to self-reported depression diagnosis after 2000 among 263,923 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were derived from multivariate logistic regressions. The OR (95% CI comparing ≥4 cans/cups per day with none were 1.30 (95%CI: 1.17-1.44 for soft drinks, 1.38 (1.15-1.65 for fruit drinks, and 0.91 (0.84-0.98 for coffee (all P for trend<0.0001. Null associations were observed for iced-tea and hot tea. In stratified analyses by drinkers of primarily diet versus regular beverages, the ORs were 1.31 (1.16-1.47 for diet versus 1.22 (1.03-1.45 for regular soft drinks, 1.51 (1.18-1.92 for diet versus 1.08 (0.79-1.46 for regular fruit drinks, and 1.25 (1.10-1.41 for diet versus 0.94 (0.83-1.08 for regular sweetened iced-tea. Finally, compared to nondrinkers, drinking coffee or tea without any sweetener was associated with a lower risk for depression, adding artificial sweeteners, but not sugar or honey, was associated with higher risks. Frequent consumption of sweetened beverages, especially diet drinks, may increase depression risk among older adults, whereas coffee consumption may lower the risk.

Association Between Cumulative Psychosocial Risk and Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection Among Female Adolescents in a Free Vaccination Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, Lourdes Oriana; Shankar, Viswanathan; Diaz, Angela; Nucci-Sack, Anne; Strickler, Howard D; Peake, Ken; Weiss, Jocelyn; Burk, Robert D; Schlecht, Nicolas F

2015-10-01

This study investigated the association of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection with cumulative psychosocial risk reflecting family disadvantage, psychological distress, and unhealthy lifestyle. The sample (N = 745) comprised sexually active female adolescent patients (12-19 yr), primarily ethnic minorities, enrolled in a free HPV vaccination program. Subjects completed questionnaires and provided cervical swabs for HPV DNA testing. Unweighted and weighted principal component analyses for categorical data were used to derive multisystemic psychosocial risk indices using 9 indicators: low socioeconomic status, lack of adult involvement, not attending high school/college, history of treatment for depression/anxiety, antisocial/delinquent behavior, number of recent sexual partners, use of alcohol, use of drugs, and dependency risk for alcohol/drugs. The association between cervical HPV (any type, high-risk types, vaccine types) assayed by polymerase chain reaction and self-reported number of psychosocial risk indicators was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Subjects had a median of 3 psychosocial risk indicators. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed associations with unweighted and weighted number of psychosocial indicators for HPV any type (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.2), with the strongest associations between weighted drug/alcohol use, drug/alcohol dependency risk, and antisocial/delinquent behavior and detection of HPV vaccine types (aOR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0) independent of number of recent sexual partners and vaccine dose (0-3). Increased HPV infections including HPV vaccine types were associated with greater number of psychosocial risk indicators even after controlling for demographics, sexual behavior, history of chlamydia, and vaccine dose.

Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C.; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M.; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-01-01

We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193)

Quadratic Hedging of Basis Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hardy Hulley

2015-02-01

Full Text Available This paper examines a simple basis risk model based on correlated geometric Brownian motions. We apply quadratic criteria to minimize basis risk and hedge in an optimal manner. Initially, we derive the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition for a European claim. This allows pricing and hedging under the minimal martingale measure, corresponding to the local risk-minimizing strategy. Furthermore, since the mean-variance tradeoff process is deterministic in our setup, the minimal martingale- and variance-optimal martingale measures coincide. Consequently, the mean-variance optimal strategy is easily constructed. Simple pricing and hedging formulae for put and call options are derived in terms of the Black–Scholes formula. Due to market incompleteness, these formulae depend on the drift parameters of the processes. By making a further equilibrium assumption, we derive an approximate hedging formula, which does not require knowledge of these parameters. The hedging strategies are tested using Monte Carlo experiments, and are compared with results achieved using a utility maximization approach.

Strategic supply risk : Exploring the risks deriving from a buying firm being of low importance for its suppliers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reichenbachs, Mauricio; Schiele, Holger; Hoffmann, Petra

2017-01-01

This paper merges two important concepts: preferred customer and supply risk. As not all customers are of the same strategic importance to a supplier, some customers are treated preferentially. Strategic supply risk describes the risk for buyers of not being a preferred customer. This qualitative

Aggregation of log-linear risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Embrechts, Paul; Hashorva, Enkeleijd; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin

2014-01-01

In this paper we work in the framework of a k-dimensional vector of log-linear risks. Under weak conditions on the marginal tails and the dependence structure of a vector of positive risks, we derive the asymptotic tail behaviour of the aggregated risk {and present} an application concerning log...

Risks derived from the industrial uses of ionizing radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alonso, A

1981-01-01

The industrial uses of ionizing radiation are clasified according to its importance in the surveillance and control of industrial processes, the possibility of modifying properties of materials under irradiation and the liberation and transformation of nuclear and desintegration energy into other useful forms. Within that framework, the industrial uses of radiation in Spain are presented together with an indication of the amount and classification of responsible operating personal. The basic concepts of risk and benefit are analyzed to show that the public perception of nuclear risk is greater that the real one. To bring both together, it is important to show a good operating experience and to develop a complete and precise set of rules and regulations. The situation in Spain on this later concept is presented in some detail.

The structural coherence of clinically derived dynamic indicators of reoffending risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Philipse, Martien W. G.; Koeter, Maarten W. J.; van den Brink, Wim; van der Staak, Cees P. F.

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND: Forensic psychiatrists aim to reduce the risk of reoffending through treatment. With few exceptions, research evidence tends to favour risk assessment aids reliant on fixed historical rather than clinical data, but transparency in the making of clinical judgements is lacking. AIMS: To

76 FR 37030 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-24

..., with certain exceptions, are financial derivatives such as futures, options, interest rate swaps and... to evaluate any hedge transaction using derivatives must include the ability to capture all options... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 703 Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset...

Commodity risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilary Till

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

Preventing the link between SES and high-risk behaviors: "value-added" education, drug use and delinquency in high-risk, urban schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Tobler, Amy L; Komro, Kelli A; Dabroski, Alexis; Aveyard, Paul; Markham, Wolfgang A

2011-06-01

We examined whether schools achieving better than expected educational outcomes for their students influence the risk of drug use and delinquency among urban, racial/ethnic minority youth. Adolescents (n = 2,621), who were primarily African American and Hispanic and enrolled in Chicago public schools (n = 61), completed surveys in 6th (aged 12) and 8th (aged 14) grades. Value-added education was derived from standardized residuals of regression equations predicting school-level academic achievement and attendance from students' sociodemographic profiles and defined as having higher academic achievement and attendance than that expected given the sociodemographic profile of the schools' student composition. Multilevel logistic regression estimated the effects of value-added education on students' drug use and delinquency. After considering initial risk behavior, value-added education was associated with lower incidence of alcohol, cigarette and marijuana use; stealing; and participating in a group-against-group fight. Significant beneficial effects of value-added education remained for cigarette and marijuana use, stealing and participating in a group-against-group fight after adjustment for individual- and school-level covariates. Alcohol use (past month and heavy episodic) showed marginally significant trends in the hypothesized direction after these adjustments. Inner-city schools may break the links between social disadvantage, drug use and delinquency. Identifying the processes related to value-added education in order to improve school environments is warranted given the high costs associated with individual-level interventions.

The Influence of Homebuyer Education on Default and Foreclosure Risk: A Natural Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Scott R.

2016-01-01

The recent housing crisis has generated debate over the benefits and risks of policies and programs promoting homeownership for low and moderate income households. One important facet of this conversation is whether prepurchase homebuyer education (HBE) is effective in reducing default or foreclosure risk. Studies to date have primarily focused on…

Hypertension: New perspective on its definition and clinical management by bedtime therapy substantially reduces cardiovascular disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hermida, Ramón C; Ayala, Diana E; Fernández, José R; Mojón, Artemio; Smolensky, Michael H

2018-05-01

Diagnosis of hypertension-elevated blood pressure (BP) associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk-and its management for decades have been based primarily on single time-of-day office BP measurements (OBPM) assumed representative of systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) during the entire 24-hours span. Around-the-clock ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM), however, reveals BP undergoes 24-hours patterning characterized in normotensives and uncomplicated hypertensives by striking morning-time rise, 2 daytime peaks-one ~2-3 hours after awakening and the other early evening, small midafternoon nadir and 10-20% decline (BP dipping) in the asleep BP mean relative to the wake-time BP mean. A growing number of outcome trials substantiate correlation between BP and target organ damage, vascular and other risks is greater for the ABPM-derived asleep BP mean, independent and stronger predictor of CVD risk, than daytime OBPM or ABPM-derived awake BP. Additionally, bedtime hypertension chronotherapy, that is, ingestion of ≥1 conventional hypertension medications at bedtime to achieve efficient attenuation of asleep BP, better reduces total CVD events by 61% and major events (CVD death, myocardial infarction, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke) by 67%-even in more vulnerable chronic kidney disease, diabetes and resistant hypertension patients-than customary on-awaking therapy that targets wake-time BP. Such findings of around-the-clock ABPM and bedtime hypertension outcome trials, consistently indicating greater importance of asleep BP than daytime OBPM or ambulatory awake BP, call for a new definition of true arterial hypertension plus modern approaches for its diagnosis and management. © 2018 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Intake of ruminant trans fatty acids and risk of coronary heart disease - An overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Marianne Uhre; Bysted, Anette; Andersen, Niels Lyhne

2006-01-01

Epidemiological studies have shown a strong direct (positive) association between the intake of trans fatty acids (TRA) and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), primarily accounted for by industrially produced TFA (IP-TFA). However, comparisons, between ruminant TEA (R-TFA) and IP-TFA and risk...

Using Derivatives to Hedge Interest Rate Risk: A Student Exercise

Science.gov (United States)

Donaldson, Jeff; Flagg, Donald

2014-01-01

In a world of fluctuating asset prices, many firms find the need to hedge in order to avoid or reduce losses. From a gold miner selling gold derivatives to airlines buying oil futures to protect against rising fuel costs, hedging is common practice across many different industries. In this paper, we provide students with a simplified example of a…

Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) levels as a possible predictor of psychopathology in healthy twins at high and low risk for affective disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinberg, Maj; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars Vedel

2014-01-01

and low risk twins, respectively). Participants were followed up longitudinally with questionnaires at 6-month intervals for mean seven years and then reassessed with a personal interview to obtain information about whether they had developed psychiatric illness. At follow-up 36 participants (15.4%) had...... developed psychiatric disorder. Cox regression analysis revealed that BDNF levels at baseline were not associated with onset of illness in this explorative study. Further, two-way interactions between BDNF levels and the Val66Met polymorphism or between familial risk and the Val66Met polymorphism did......Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) is a potential biomarker of affective disorder. However, longitudinal studies evaluating a potential predictive role of BDNF on subsequent psychopathology are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate whether BDNF alone or in interaction...

Cardiovascular risk age: concepts and practicalities.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2012-06-01

A young person with many risk factors may have the same level of risk as an older person with no risk factors. Thus a high-risk 40-year-old may have a risk age of 60 years or more. The aim of the study was to derive a generic equation for risk age, construct risk age charts, and explore the hypothesis that risk age is similar regardless of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) end point used.

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

AN OVERVIEW ON STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS FIELDS

OpenAIRE

Mirela NICHITA

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a history and an evolution of concepts of risk and risk management in economic, respectively financial fields, highlighting the usefulness (or not) and complexity of tools for risk assessment developed over time. The main objective of risk management is to reduce costs and increase the value of company and stakeholders gains; also, a coherent risk management strategy may improve entity capital structure which will derive in a healthy financing policy. T...

Beyond stereotypes of adolescent risk taking: Placing the adolescent brain in developmental context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Romer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Recent neuroscience models of adolescent brain development attribute the morbidity and mortality of this period to structural and functional imbalances between more fully developed limbic regions that subserve reward and emotion as opposed to those that enable cognitive control. We challenge this interpretation of adolescent development by distinguishing risk-taking that peaks during adolescence (sensation seeking and impulsive action from risk taking that declines monotonically from childhood to adulthood (impulsive choice and other decisions under known risk. Sensation seeking is primarily motivated by exploration of the environment under ambiguous risk contexts, while impulsive action, which is likely to be maladaptive, is more characteristic of a subset of youth with weak control over limbic motivation. Risk taking that declines monotonically from childhood to adulthood occurs primarily under conditions of known risks and reflects increases in executive function as well as aversion to risk based on increases in gist-based reasoning. We propose an alternative Life-span Wisdom Model that highlights the importance of experience gained through exploration during adolescence. We propose, therefore, that brain models that recognize the adaptive roles that cognition and experience play during adolescence provide a more complete and helpful picture of this period of development.

Direct healthcare costs of selected diseases primarily or partially transmitted by water.

Science.gov (United States)

Collier, S A; Stockman, L J; Hicks, L A; Garrison, L E; Zhou, F J; Beach, M J

2012-11-01

Despite US sanitation advancements, millions of waterborne disease cases occur annually, although the precise burden of disease is not well quantified. Estimating the direct healthcare cost of specific infections would be useful in prioritizing waterborne disease prevention activities. Hospitalization and outpatient visit costs per case and total US hospitalization costs for ten waterborne diseases were calculated using large healthcare claims and hospital discharge databases. The five primarily waterborne diseases in this analysis (giardiasis, cryptosporidiosis, Legionnaires' disease, otitis externa, and non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection) were responsible for over 40 000 hospitalizations at a cost of $970 million per year, including at least $430 million in hospitalization costs for Medicaid and Medicare patients. An additional 50 000 hospitalizations for campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, shigellosis, haemolytic uraemic syndrome, and toxoplasmosis cost $860 million annually ($390 million in payments for Medicaid and Medicare patients), a portion of which can be assumed to be due to waterborne transmission.

Prospective Analysis of Risk for Hypothyroidism after Hemithyroidectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virgilijus Beisa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. To evaluate risk factors and to develop a simple scoring system to grade the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism (PH. Methods. In a controlled prospective study, 109 patients, who underwent hemithyroidectomy for a benign thyroid disease, were followed up for 12 months. The relation between clinical data and PH was analyzed for significance. A risk scoring system based on significant risk factors and clinical implications was developed. Results. The significant risk factors of PH were higher TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone level and lower ratio of the remaining thyroid weight to the patient’s weight (derived weight index. Based on the log of risk factor, preoperative TSH level greater than 1.4 mU/L was assigned 2 points; 1 point was for 0.8–1.4 mU/L. The derived weight index lower than 0.8 g/kg was assigned 1 point. A risk scoring system was calculated by summing the scores. The incidences of PH were 7.3%, 30.4%, and 69.2% according to the risk scores of 0-1, 2, and 3. Conclusion. Risk factors for PH are higher preoperative TSH level and lower derived weight index. Our developed risk scoring system is a valid and reliable tool to identify patients who are at risk for PH before surgery.

Mexico; Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Technical Note: Derivatives Market: Overview and Potential Vulnerabilities

OpenAIRE

International Monetary Fund

2007-01-01

This technical note provides an overview of Mexico’s derivatives markets, and describes concisely the derivatives regulatory framework and risk management practices in financial institutions active in these markets. The most important derivatives market in Mexico is the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, which is fully integrated with the global derivatives market. The origin of the OTC derivatives market can be traced back to the 1994 Mexican crisis that forced Mexico to abandon its ...

Arbitrage Opportunities and their Implications to Derivative Hedging

OpenAIRE

Panayides, Stephanos

2005-01-01

We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005), 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrage opportunities are present in the market. We restrict ourselves to finding hedging confidence intervals that can be adapted to the amount of arbitrage risk an investor will per...

Accounting for derivative contracts in an energy environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewthwaite, T.; Majid, H.; Swingler, N.

1999-01-01

This chapter reviews the latest developments in the accounting for derivative contracts in the energy environment, covering the US accounting and disclosure requirements and the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) 133 Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities, and the Emerging Issues Task Force Consensus (EITF) 98-10 accounting for energy trading and risk management activities. UK accounting and disclosure requirements and the international point of view are discussed. Three different types of hedges are described

Accounting for derivative contracts in an energy environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewthwaite, T.; Majid, H.; Swingler, N. [Arthur Andersen (United Kingdom)

1999-07-01

This chapter reviews the latest developments in the accounting for derivative contracts in the energy environment, covering the US accounting and disclosure requirements and the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) 133 Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities, and the Emerging Issues Task Force Consensus (EITF) 98-10 accounting for energy trading and risk management activities. UK accounting and disclosure requirements and the international point of view are discussed. Three different types of hedges are described.

Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S

2012-05-01

To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

77 FR 5416 - Financial Derivatives Transactions To Offset Interest Rate Risk; Investment and Deposit Activities

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-03

... manage derivatives. First, an FCU would need to demonstrate relevant IRR exposure. One of the motivations... in ANPR I, the Board is considering whether to limit the types of derivatives instruments that some... considers it appropriate to limit the types of derivatives that an FCU may transact to interest rate...

Analysis of survival for patients with chronic kidney disease primarily related to renal cancer surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jitao; Suk-Ouichai, Chalairat; Dong, Wen; Antonio, Elvis Caraballo; Derweesh, Ithaar H; Lane, Brian R; Demirjian, Sevag; Li, Jianbo; Campbell, Steven C

2018-01-01

To evaluate predictors of long-term survival for patients with chronic kidney disease primarily due to surgery (CKD-S). Patients with CKD-S have generally good survival that approximates patients who do not have CKD even after renal cancer surgery (RCS), yet there may be heterogeneity within this cohort. From 1997 to 2008, 4 246 patients underwent RCS at our centre. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up was 9.4 (7.3-11.0) years. New baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was defined as highest GFR between nadir and 6 weeks after RCS. We retrospectively evaluated three cohorts: no-CKD (new baseline GFR of ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ); CKD-S (new baseline GFR of cancer-related survival (NRCRS) for the CKD-S cohort. Kaplan-Meier analysis assessed the longitudinal impact of new baseline GFR (45-60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 vs <45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) and Cox regression evaluated relative impact of preoperative GFR, new baseline GFR, and relevant demographics/comorbidities. Of the 4 246 patients who underwent RCS, 931 had CKD-S and 1 113 had CKD-M/S, whilst 2 202 had no-CKD even after RCS. Partial/radical nephrectomy (PN/RN) was performed in 54%/46% of the patients, respectively. For CKD-S, 641 patients had a new baseline GFR of 45-60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and 290 had a new baseline GFR of <45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significantly reduced NRCRS for patients with CKD-S with a GFR of <45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 compared to those with no-CKD or CKD-S with a GFR of 45-60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (both P ≤ 0.004), and competing risk analysis confirmed this (P < 0.001). Age, gender, heart disease, and new baseline GFR were all associated independently with NRCRS for patients with CKD-S (all P ≤ 0.02). Our data suggest that CKD-S is heterogeneous, and patients with a reduced new baseline GFR have compromised survival, particularly if <45 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Our findings may have implications regarding choice of PN/RN in patients at risk of developing

The Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Index Return and Realised Variance Series

OpenAIRE

Minxian Yang

2014-01-01

The risk return relationship is analysed in bivariate models for return and realised variance(RV) series. Based on daily time series from 21 international market indices for more than 13 years (January 2000 to February 2013), the empirical findings support the arguments of risk return tradeoff, volatility feedback and statistical balance. It is reasoned that the empirical risk return relationship is primarily shaped by two important data features: the negative contemporaneous correlation betw...

The Conditions of Creation and Prospects of Weather Derivatives Development on the Domestic Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Binkowski

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Analysing the possibility of creations and prospects of weather derivatives development on the domestic market the first of all should be identify the business areas that are strongly exposed for weather risk, which are: energy, agricultural, building and transportation. The specificity of the Polish climate is the high volatility of the major weather factors like temperature or precipitations. Similar to other European countries where weather derivatives markets already exist (e.g.: Germany, France, and United Kingdom. Having in mind dynamic grow of companies with regards to management processes, used technologies and marketing strategies, the exposure for weather risk is getting higher. Therefore, there is a strong pressure for creation of mechanisms and instruments that will allow reducing that kind of risks. Currently in Poland there are no conditions for development of weather derivatives market due to lack of demand. That situation is caused by low level of awareness regarding to possibilities of reducing weather risks. Within a few years the demand for such the instruments will appear ñ together with growing awareness. Once the demand for weather derivative will appear, the existing infrastructure of financial sector is ready for its implementation. Of course it is hard to say what will be the direction of whether derivatives grow on the domestic financial market but taking into consideration its dynamic grow and strong correlations with global markets, there is a small probability that weather derivatives will not appear on the Polish market ñ it is only the matter of time.

The non-alcoholic fraction of beer increases stromal cell derived factor 1 and the number of circulating endothelial progenitor cells in high cardiovascular risk subjects: a randomized clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiva-Blanch, Gemma; Condines, Ximena; Magraner, Emma; Roth, Irene; Valderas-Martínez, Palmira; Arranz, Sara; Casas, Rosa; Martínez-Huélamo, Miriam; Vallverdú-Queralt, Anna; Quifer-Rada, Paola; Lamuela-Raventos, Rosa M; Estruch, Ramon

2014-04-01

Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a decrease in cardiovascular risk, but fermented beverages seem to confer greater cardiovascular protection due to their polyphenolic content. Circulating endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) are bone-marrow-derived stem cells with the ability to repair and maintain endothelial integrity and function and are considered as a surrogate marker of vascular function and cumulative cardiovascular risk. Nevertheless, no study has been carried out on the effects of moderate beer consumption on the number of circulating EPC in high cardiovascular risk patients. To compare the effects of moderate consumption of beer, non-alcoholic beer and gin on the number of circulating EPC and EPC-mobilizing factors. In this crossover trial, 33 men at high cardiovascular risk were randomized to receive beer (30 g alcohol/d), the equivalent amount of polyphenols in the form of non-alcoholic beer, or gin (30 g alcohol/d) for 4 weeks. Diet and physical exercise were carefully monitored. The number of circulating EPC and EPC-mobilizing factors were determined at baseline and after each intervention. After the beer and non-alcoholic beer interventions, the number of circulating EPC significantly increased by 8 and 5 units, respectively, while no significant differences were observed after the gin period. In correlation, stromal cell derived factor 1 increased significantly after the non-alcoholic and the beer interventions. The non-alcoholic fraction of beer increases the number of circulating EPC in peripheral blood from high cardiovascular risk subjects. http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN95345245 ISRCTN95345245. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Ecological Risk of Heavy Metal Contamination in Coastal Municipalities of Montenegro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boban Mugoša

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Assessment of heavy metal concentrations in the soil samples of urban parks and playgrounds is very important for the evaluation of potential risks for residents, especially children. Until recently, there has been very little data about urban parks pollution in Montenegro. To evaluate the sources of potential contamination and concentration of heavy metals, soil samples from coastal urban parks and kindergartens of Montenegro were collected. Based on the heavy metal concentrations, multivariate analysis combined with geochemical approaches showed that soil samples in coastal areas of Montenegro had mean Pb and Cd concentrations that were over two times higher than the background values, respectively. Based on principal component analysis (PCA, soil pollution with Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn is contributed by anthropogenic sources. Results for Cr in the surface soils were primarily derived from natural sources. Calculation of different ecological contamination factors showed that Cd is the primary contribution to ecological risk index (RI origins from anthropogenic, industry, and urbanization sources. This data provides evidence about soil pollution in coastal municipalities of Montenegro. Special attention should be paid to this problem in order to continue further research and to consider possible ways of remediation of the sites where contamination has been observed.

Insights from the analyses of risk-informed extension of diesel generator allowed outage time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, J.C.; He Wei

2005-01-01

In recent years, many U.S. nuclear plants have applied and received approval for the risk-informed extension of the Allowed Outage Time (AOT) for Emergency Diesel Generators (EDGs). These risk-informed applications need to meet the regulatory guidance on the risk criteria. This paper discusses in detail insights derived from the risk-informed analyses performed to support these applications. The risk criteria on ΔCDF/ΔLERF evaluate the increase in average risk by extending the AOT for EDGs, induced primarily by an increase in EDG maintenance unavailability due to the introduction of additional EDG preventive maintenance. By performing this preventive maintenance work on-line, the outage duration can be shortened. With proper refinement of the risk model, most plants can meet the ΔCDF/ΔLERF criteria for extending the EDGAOT from, for example, 3 days to 14 days. The key areas for model enhancements to meet these criteria include offsite/onsite power recovery, LERF modeling, etc. The most important LERF model enhancements consist of refinement of the penetrations included in the containment isolation model for the consideration of a large release, and taking credit for operator vessel depressurization during the time period between core damage and vessel failure. A recent study showed that although the frequency of loss of offsite power (LOSP) has decreased, the duration of offsite power recovery has actually increased. However, many of the events used to derive this conclusion may not be applicable to PRAs. One approach develops the offsite power non-recovery factor by first screening the LOSP events for applicability to the plant being analyzed, power operation, and LOSP initiating event, then using the remaining events data for the derivation based on the fraction of events with recovery duration longer than the time window allowed. The risk criteria on ICCDP/ICLERP examine the increase in risk from the average CDF/LERF, based on the increased maintenance

Circulating cell-derived microparticles in patients with minimally symptomatic obstructive sleep apnoea.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayers, L; Ferry, B; Craig, S; Nicoll, D; Stradling, J R; Kohler, M

2009-03-01

Moderate-severe obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) has been associated with several pro-atherogenic mechanisms and increased cardiovascular risk, but it is not known if minimally symptomatic OSA has similar effects. Circulating cell-derived microparticles have been shown to have pro-inflammatory, pro-coagulant and endothelial function-impairing effects, as well as to predict subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk. In 57 patients with minimally symptomatic OSA, and 15 closely matched control subjects without OSA, AnnexinV-positive, platelet-, leukocyte- and endothelial cell-derived microparticles were measured by flow cytometry. In patients with OSA, median (interquartile range) levels of AnnexinV-positive microparticles were significantly elevated compared with control subjects: 2,586 (1,566-3,964) microL(-1) versus 1,206 (474-2,501) microL(-1), respectively. Levels of platelet-derived and leukocyte-derived microparticles were also significantly higher in patients with OSA (2,267 (1,102-3,592) microL(-1) and 20 (14-31) microL(-1), respectively) compared with control subjects (925 (328-2,068) microL(-1) and 15 (5-23) microL(-1), respectively). Endothelial cell-derived microparticle levels were similar in patients with OSA compared with control subjects (13 (8-25) microL(-1) versus 11 (6-17) microL(-1)). In patients with minimally symptomatic obstructive sleep apnoea, levels of AnnexinV-positive, platelet- and leukocyte-derived microparticles are elevated when compared with closely matched control subjects without obstructive sleep apnoea. These findings suggest that these patients may be at increased cardiovascular risk, despite being minimally symptomatic.

Managing power risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudd, D.C.

1999-01-01

Issues regarding the management of financial risks in the electric power market were discussed. The nature of the risk was defined for electricity producers, local utilities, traders/dealers, and brokers, each of which are exposed to different types of risks with the exception of credit risk, which is common to all. The main features of options, swaps, CFDs, bilateral financial contracts, futures contracts and the terms of the NYMEX electricity contract were outlined. Basic derivative strategies, the role of the broker, the elements of emissions trading, and trading strategies for consumers were also explained. 3 fig

A framework for assessing ecological risks of petroleum-derived materials in soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, G.W. II

1997-05-01

Ecological risk assessment estimates the nature and likelihood of effects of human actions on nonhuman organisms, populations, and ecosystems. It is intended to be clearer and more rigorous in its approach to estimation of effects and uncertainties than previously employed methods of ecological assessment. Ecological risk assessment is characterized by a standard paradigm that includes problem formulation, analysis of exposure and effects, risk characterization, and communication with a risk manager. This report provides a framework that applies the paradigm to the specific problem of assessing the ecological risks of petroleum in soil. This type of approach requires that assessments be performed in phases: (1) a scoping assessment to determine whether there is a potential route of exposure for potentially significant ecological receptors; (2) a screening assessment to determine whether exposures could potentially reach toxic levels; and (3) a definitive assessment to estimate the nature, magnitude, and extent of risks. The principal technical issue addressed is the chemically complex nature of petroleum--a complexity that may be dealt with by assessing risks on the basis of properties of the whole material, properties of individual chemicals that are representative of chemical classes, distributions of properties of the constituents of chemical classes, properties of chemicals detected in the soil, and properties of indicator chemicals. The advantages and feasibility of these alternatives are discussed. The report concludes with research recommendations for improving each stage in the assessment process

Plant derived antioxidants and antifibrotic drugs: past, present and future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devaraj Ezhilarasan

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Hepatic fibrosis occurs as a wound-healing process after several forms of chronic hepatic injury. Activation and proliferation of hepatic stellate cells play pivotal role in the pathogenesis of hepatic fibrosis. Many researchers, from the therapeutic perspective, have focused their attention on searching for novel agents with inhibitory effects on hepatic stellate cells proliferation and activation to prevent hepatic fibrogenesis and a number of plant derived antioxidants have been tested as anti-fibrogenic agents, they generally suppress proliferation and collagen synthesis. Plants remain an imperative source of novel drugs, novel drug leads and new chemical entities. The plant based drug discovery resulted primarily in the development of antioxidant, anti-cancer and other anti-infectious agents and continues to contribute to the new leads in clinical trials. This review summarizes some of those most important plant derived anti-fibrotic drugs and their beneficial effects on experimentally induced hepatic fibrosis in vitro and in vivo. The plant derived antioxidant compounds described herein are curcumin, silymarin, silibinin, baicalein, resveratrol, salvianolic acids, tetrandine, quercetin and berberine. Studies from ours and as demonstrated by pervious workers much information has been accumulated over the past two decades through in vivo and in vitro. In light of those studies, it has been confirmed that plants derived antioxidants, particularly flavanoids, show a significant influence to block hepatic fibrosis regardless of any etiology. This review outlines recent progress in the use of plant derived drugs against experimentally induced liver fibrosis by in vitro and in vivo studies and summarizes the possible mechanisms anti-fibrotic effects of these compounds.

Brand relationships and risk: influence of risk avoidance and gender on brand consumption

OpenAIRE

Lee, Seung-Hee; Workman, Jane E.; Jung, Kwangho

2016-01-01

Recent brand relationship research has paid attention to brand love, brand credibility, and brand loyalty. In market and society, various collaborations and co-creations derived from brand relationships generate various social network markets and open business innovations. Brand relationships and collaborative forms heavily depend on risk taking or risk avoidance. However, few studies have examined how brand relationship is related to risk avoidance. The purpose of this study is to investigat...

Carpal tunnel syndrome. Risk factors and preventive strategies for the dental hygienist.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerwatowski, L J; McFall, D B; Stach, D J

1992-02-01

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is well recognized as an occupational risk for dental hygienists. The contributing risk factors fall primarily into two categories: medical and occupational. The purposes of this paper are to examine the factors that predispose one to CTS in order to increase awareness among dental hygienists, and to offer preventive strategies that can be incorporated into daily practice.

Podocytes degrade endocytosed albumin primarily in lysosomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Carson, John M; Okamura, Kayo; Wakashin, Hidefumi; McFann, Kim; Dobrinskikh, Evgenia; Kopp, Jeffrey B; Blaine, Judith

2014-01-01

Albuminuria is a strong, independent predictor of chronic kidney disease progression. We hypothesize that podocyte processing of albumin via the lysosome may be an important determinant of podocyte injury and loss. A human urine derived podocyte-like epithelial cell (HUPEC) line was used for in vitro experiments. Albumin uptake was quantified by Western blot after loading HUPECs with fluorescein-labeled (FITC) albumin. Co-localization of albumin with lysosomes was determined by confocal microscopy. Albumin degradation was measured by quantifying FITC-albumin abundance in HUPEC lysates by Western blot. Degradation experiments were repeated using HUPECs treated with chloroquine, a lysosome inhibitor, or MG-132, a proteasome inhibitor. Lysosome activity was measured by fluorescence recovery after photo bleaching (FRAP). Cytokine production was measured by ELISA. Cell death was determined by trypan blue staining. In vivo, staining with lysosome-associated membrane protein-1 (LAMP-1) was performed on tissue from a Denys-Drash trangenic mouse model of nephrotic syndrome. HUPECs endocytosed albumin, which co-localized with lysosomes. Choloroquine, but not MG-132, inhibited albumin degradation, indicating that degradation occurs in lysosomes. Cathepsin B activity, measured by FRAP, significantly decreased in HUPECs exposed to albumin (12.5% of activity in controls) and chloroquine (12.8%), and declined further with exposure to albumin plus chloroquine (8.2%, plysosomes are involved in the processing of endocytosed albumin in podocytes, and lysosomal dysfunction may contribute to podocyte injury and glomerulosclerosis in albuminuric diseases. Modifiers of lysosomal activity may have therapeutic potential in slowing the progression of glomerulosclerosis by enhancing the ability of podocytes to process and degrade albumin.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles. Executive Summary

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Synthesis and Cellular Uptake of Radioiodine labeled 2{sup '}-deoxyuridine derivatives with HSV1-TK

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Eun Ah; Lee, Kyo Chul; Hong, Su Hee; Kim, Eun Jung; Lee, Jong Chan; An, Gwang Il; Choi, Tae Hyun; Cheon, Gi Jeong; Chun, Kwon Soo [Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2006-07-01

Several different radiolabeled probes have been developed to image Herpes Simplex Virus Type-1 thyrimidine kinase gene (HSV1-TK) expression. The nucleoside prodrugs under investigation for HSV1-TK imaging generally fall into two main chemical and radioisotope categories: the pyrimidine nucleosides, primarily radioiodinated, and the purin nucleosides, primarily radiofluorinated, and their respective analogues. In non-invasive imaging of the HSV1-TK system, many nucleoside derivatives have been recommended as HSV1-TK substrates. Most of these nucleoside derivatives have been developed as prodrugs for tumor proliferation imaging or as anti-viral drugs. For example, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and IUdR have been used as tumor agents and acyclovir (ACV), ganciclovir (GCV) and (E)-5-(2-bromovinyl)-2{sup '}- deoxyuridine (BVDU) as an anti-viral agents for virus infection several 5-substituted uracil nucleoside derivatives have been identified to have high sensitivity and selective accumulation in HSV1-TK expressing cells. Of those, IVDU was shown to be rapidly accumulated in HSV1- TK expressing cells in vitro. Imaging of the HSV1-TK reporter gene along with various reporter probes is of current interest. In contrast to the mammalian kinase, which phosphorylates thymidine preferentially, HSV1-TK is less discriminative and phosphorylates a wide range of nucleoside analogues such as acycloguanosines and 2{sup '}-fluoro-2{sup '}-deoxyuridine derivatives that are not phosphorylated efficiently by the native enzyme. More specifically, 5-substituted 2{sup '}-fluoro-2{sup '}-deoxyarabinofuranosyluracil nucleosides are efficiently phosphorylated by HSV- TK. This property, together with the presence of fluorine in the 2{sup '}-arabino-position, endows the 2{sup '}-fluoro-2{sup '}-deoxyuridines with antiviral activity against HSV.

Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

Science.gov (United States)

Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

2001-01-01

We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

A functional brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene variant increases the risk of moderate-to-severe allergic rhinitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Peng; Andiappan, Anand Kumar; Quek, Jia Min; Lee, Bernett; Au, Bijin; Sio, Yang Yie; Irwanto, Astrid; Schurmann, Claudia; Grabe, Hans Jörgen; Suri, Bani Kaur; Matta, Sri Anusha; Westra, Harm-Jan; Franke, Lude; Esko, Tonu; Sun, Liangdan; Zhang, Xuejun; Liu, Hong; Zhang, Furen; Larbi, Anis; Xu, Xin; Poidinger, Michael; Liu, Jianjun; Chew, Fook Tim; Rotzschke, Olaf; Shi, Li; Wang, De Yun

2015-06-01

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is a secretory protein that has been implicated in the pathogenesis of allergic rhinitis (AR), atopic asthma, and eczema, but it is currently unknown whether BDNF polymorphisms influence susceptibility to moderate-to-severe AR. We sought to identify disease associations and the functional effect of BDNF genetic variants in patients with moderate-to-severe AR. Tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning the BDNF gene were selected from the human HapMap Han Chinese from Beijing (CHB) data set, and associations with moderate-to-severe AR were assessed in 2 independent cohorts of Chinese patients (2216 from Shandong province and 1239 living in Singapore). The functional effects of the BDNF genetic variants were determined by using both in vitro and ex vivo assays. The tagging SNP rs10767664 was significantly associated with the risk of moderate-to-severe AR in both Singapore Chinese (P = .0017; odds ratio, 1.324) and Shandong Chinese populations (P = .039; odds ratio, 1.180). The coding nonsynonymous SNP rs6265 was in perfect linkage with rs10767664 and conferred increased BDNF protein secretion by a human cell line in vitro. Subjects bearing the AA genotype of rs10767664 exhibited increased risk of moderate-to-severe AR and displayed increased BDNF protein and total IgE levels in plasma. Using a large-scale expression quantitative trait locus study, we demonstrated that BDNF SNPs are significantly associated with altered BDNF concentrations in peripheral blood. A common genetic variant of the BDNF gene is associated with increased risk of moderate-to-severe AR, and the AA genotype is associated with increased BDNF mRNA levels in peripheral blood. Together, these data indicate that functional BDNF gene variants increase the risk of moderate-to-severe AR. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The visual communication of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipkus, I M; Hollands, J G

1999-01-01

This paper 1) provides reasons why graphics should be effective aids to communicate risk; 2) reviews the use of visuals, especially graphical displays, to communicate risk; 3) discusses issues to consider when designing graphs to communicate risk; and 4) provides suggestions for future research. Key articles and materials were obtained from MEDLINE(R) and PsychInfo(R) databases, from reference article citations, and from discussion with experts in risk communication. Research has been devoted primarily to communicating risk magnitudes. Among the various graphical displays, the risk ladder appears to be a promising tool for communicating absolute and relative risks. Preliminary evidence suggests that people understand risk information presented in histograms and pie charts. Areas that need further attention include 1) applying theoretical models to the visual communication of risk, 2) testing which graphical displays can be applied best to different risk communication tasks (e.g., which graphs best convey absolute or relative risks), 3) communicating risk uncertainty, and 4) testing whether the lay public's perceptions and understanding of risk varies by graphical format and whether the addition of graphical displays improves comprehension substantially beyond numerical or narrative translations of risk and, if so, by how much. There is a need to ascertain the extent to which graphics and other visuals enhance the public's understanding of disease risk to facilitate decision-making and behavioral change processes. Nine suggestions are provided to help achieve these ends.

Derivatives in South Africa – an empirical investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Schwegler

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper, which is the second of a two-part series, presents the empirical findings of testing a number of variables influencing investors’ decisions to use derivatives in their portfolios. Five variables were deemed very important by a sample of 21 experts in the financial services industry in South Africa. These were: the level of information available (including the transparency of price determination; investor’s knowledge of different derivative instruments; investor’s level of risk tolerance; the level of liquidity in the market; and investor’s knowledge of and familiarity with financial markets. Education is required to change negative sentiments regarding derivatives and more regulation is called for, especially in over-the-counter markets.

Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

2008-01-01

In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm

The Association between Cumulative Psychosocial Risk and Cervical HPV Infection Among Female Adolescents in a Free Vaccination Program

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, Lourdes Oriana; Shankar, Viswanathan; Diaz, Angela; Nucci-Sack, Anne; Strickler, Howard D.; Peake, Ken; Weiss, Jocelyn; Burk, Robert D.; Schlecht, Nicolas F.

2016-01-01

Objective This study investigated the association of cervical Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection with cumulative psychosocial risk reflecting family disadvantage, psychological distress, and unhealthy life style. Methods The sample (N=745) was comprised of sexually-active female adolescent patients (12-19 years), primarily ethnic minorities, enrolled in a free HPV vaccination program. Subjects completed questionnaires and provided cervical swabs for HPV DNA testing. Unweighted and weighted Principal Component Analyses (PCA) for categorical data were used to derive multi-systemic psychosocial risk indices using nine indicators: low socioeconomic status, lack of adult involvement, not attending high-school/college, history of treatment for depression/anxiety, antisocial/delinquent behavior, number of recent sexual partners, use of alcohol, use of drugs, and dependency risk for alcohol/drugs. The association between cervical HPV (any-type, high risk-types, vaccine-types) assayed by polymerase chain reaction and self-reported number of psychosocial risk indicators was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results Subjects had a median of three psychosocial risk indicators. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed associations with unweighted and weighted number of psychosocial indicators for HPV any-type (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.2 ); with the strongest associations between weighted drug/alcohol use, drug/alcohol dependency risk, and antisocial/delinquent behavior and detection of HPV vaccine-types (aOR=1.5; 95%CI: 1.1-2.0) independent of number of recent sexual partners and vaccine dose (0-3). Conclusion Increased HPV infections including HPV vaccine-types were associated with greater number of psychosocial risk indicators even after controlling for demographics, sexual behavior, history of chlamydia, and vaccine dose. PMID:25985216

Coverage of endangered species in environmental risk assessments at EFSA

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brock, T.C.M.

2016-01-01

The EFSA performs environmental risk assessment (ERA) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives, and for invasive alien species that are harmful to plant health. This ERA focusses primarily on the use or spread of such

Chlorophyll derivatives for pest and disease control: Are they safe?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azizullah, Azizullah; Murad, Waheed

2015-01-01

Chlorophyll derivatives are getting widespread acceptance among the researchers as natural photosensitizers for photodynamic control of pests and disease vectors; however, rare attention has been given to evaluation of their toxicity to non-target organisms in the environment. This perspective article highlights that chlorophyll derivatives may not be as safe as believed and can possibly pose risk to non-target organisms in the environment. We invite the attention of environmental biologists, particularly ecotoxicologists, to contribute their role in making the application of chlorophyll derivatives more environmentally friendly and publicly acceptable

Chlorophyll derivatives for pest and disease control: Are they safe?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Azizullah, Azizullah, E-mail: azizswabi@gmail.com; Murad, Waheed

2015-01-15

Chlorophyll derivatives are getting widespread acceptance among the researchers as natural photosensitizers for photodynamic control of pests and disease vectors; however, rare attention has been given to evaluation of their toxicity to non-target organisms in the environment. This perspective article highlights that chlorophyll derivatives may not be as safe as believed and can possibly pose risk to non-target organisms in the environment. We invite the attention of environmental biologists, particularly ecotoxicologists, to contribute their role in making the application of chlorophyll derivatives more environmentally friendly and publicly acceptable.

RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANIES AND HEDGE ACCOUNTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SABIN ARMĂŞELU

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The increasing use of derivatives for risk management of a company lately has led to the need to report on an actual basis as these instruments and regulate these operations accounting. This paper proposes a presentation of hedging transactions and their accounting evaluating the impact, in terms of accounting, risk management derivatives on a company. Hedges are often ineffective. Overcoming the ineffectiveness of hedging operations can be achieved by proper designation of the hedging relationship and create an appropriate method to demonstrate hedge effectiveness.

The Financial Industry's Challenge of Developing Commodity Derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

1999-01-01

With a constant new stream of financial services coming to the market, each often more exotic and complicated than the last, the financial services industry, which includes commodity derivatives exchanges, brokerage houses and banks providing price risk reduction services (the so-called hedging

Ionospheric and induced field leakage in geomagnetic field models, and derivation of candidate models for DGRF 1995 and DGRF 2000

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Nils; Lowes, F.; Sabaka, T.J.

2005-01-01

the zonal coefficients g(1)(0), g(3)(0),..., by 1-2 nT. We describe the reason for this contamination, and present a method to correct for it. Since not only OSVM but probably all main field models that are derived primarily from data around local midnight suffer from this effect, the presented scheme can...

Syncope and Motor Vehicle Crash Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Numé, Anna-Karin; Gislason, Gunnar; Christiansen, Christine Benn

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE: Syncope may have serious consequences for traffic safety. Current clinical guideline recommendations on driving following syncope are primarily based on expert consensus. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether there is excess risk of motor vehicle crashes among patients with syncope compared...... vehicle crashes throughout the follow-up period. This study suggests that syncope should be considered as one of several factors in a broad assessment of fitness to drive....

Deep Vein Thrombosis: Risk Factors and Prevention in Surgical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

BACKGROUND: Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in hospitalized surgical patients. The occurrence of the disease is related to presence of risk factors, which are related primarily to trauma, venous stasis and hyper-coagulability. DVT seems not to be taken seriously by many ...

Differences in Health Care Costs and Utilization among Adults with Selected Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Larry A.; Clegg, Alan G.

2002-01-01

Examined the relationship between lifestyle-related health risks and health care costs and utilization among young adults. Data collected at a primarily white collar worksite in over 2 years indicated that health risks, particularly obesity, stress, and general lifestyle, were significant predictors of health care costs and utilization among these…

78 FR 49663 - Enhanced Risk Management Standards for Systemically Important Derivatives Clearing Organizations

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-15

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Enhanced Risk Management...'') is adopting final regulations to implement enhanced risk management standards for systemically..., strengthen the risk management practices of DCOs, and increase overall confidence in the financial system by...

The influence of religion on sexual HIV risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Stacey A; El-Bassel, Nabila

2014-08-01

This systematic review examines the relationship between religion and sexual HIV risk behavior. It focuses primarily on how studies have conceptualized and defined religion, methodologies, and sexual risk outcomes. We also describe regions where studies were conducted and mechanisms by which religion may be associated with sexual risk. We included 137 studies in this review, classifying them as measuring: (1) only religious affiliation (n = 57), (2) only religiosity (n = 48), and (3) both religious affiliation and religiosity (n = 32). A number of studies identified lower levels of sexual HIV risk among Muslims, although many of these examined HIV prevalence rather than specific behavioral risk outcomes. Most studies identified increased religiosity to be associated with lower levels of sexual HIV risk. This finding persists but is weaker when the outcome considered is condom use. The paper reviews ways in which religion may contribute to increase and reduction in sexual HIV risk, gaps in research, and implications for future research on religion and HIV.

Biodegradation of Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, and Their Derivatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ming; Qin, Xiaosheng; Zeng, Guangming

2017-09-01

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs), graphene (GRA), and their derivatives are promising materials for a wide range of applications such as pollutant removal, enzyme immobilization, bioimaging, biosensors, and drug delivery and are rapidly increasing in use and increasingly mass produced. The biodegradation of carbon nanomaterials by microbes and enzymes is now of great importance for both reducing their toxicity to living organisms and removing them from the environment. Here we review recent progress in the biodegradation field from the point of view of the primary microbes and enzymes that can degrade these nanomaterials, along with experimental and molecular simulation methods for the exploration of nanomaterial degradation. Further efforts should primarily aim toward expanding the repertoire of microbes and enzymes and exploring optimal conditions for the degradation of nanomaterials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

2011-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Risk Management on the National Compact Stellarator Project (NCSX)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, Robert T.; Heitzenroeder, Philip J.; Reiersen, Wayne T.; Neilson, George H.; Strykowsky, Ronald L.; Rej, Donald; Gruber, Christopher O.

2009-01-01

In its simplest form, risk management is a continuous assessment from project start to completion that identifies what can impact your project (i.e., what the risks are)., which of these risks are important, and identification and implementation of strategies to deal with these risks (both threats and opportunities). The National Compact Stellerator Experiment (NCSX) Project was a 'first-of-a-kind' fusion experiment that was technically very challenging, primarily resulting from the complex component geometries and tight tolerances. Initial risk quantification approaches proved inadequate and contributed to the escalation of costs as the design evolved and construction started. After the Project was well into construction, a new risk management plan was adopted. This plan was based on successful Department of Energy (DOE) and industrial risk management precepts. This paper will address the importance of effective risk management processes and lessons learned. It is of note that a steady reduction of risk was observed in the last six months of the project

Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-09-01

Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

Arbitrage opportunities and their implications to derivative hedging

Science.gov (United States)

Panayides, Stephanos

2006-02-01

We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005) 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrage opportunities are present in the market. We restrict ourselves to finding hedging confidence intervals that can be adapted to the amount of arbitrage risk an investor will permit to be exposed to. The resulting hedging bands are independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage opportunities.

Systemic risk in the energy sector—Is there need for financial regulation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerste, Marco; Gerritsen, Matthijs; Weda, Jarst; Tieben, Bert

2015-01-01

The credit crisis points at serious systemic risks in Over The Counter derivative trading. This has resulted in new financial regulation, covering both the financial sector and non-financial sectors. The actual extent to which non-financial companies trading on OTC markets contribute to systemic risk has hardly been the subject of research. This paper investigates the need for financial regulation in the energy sector, which shows a high use of OTC derivatives, by modeling systemic risk measured by the expected fraction of additional failing firms (EAF). Contagion risk within the energy sector and from the energy sector towards the banking sector is compared with that in other non-financial sectors. This paper adds to existing systemic risk literature by specifically looking at financial interdependence between a non-financial sector showing a high usage of OTC commodity derivatives and the banking sector, while contributing to the discussion on energy sector regulation with technical systemic risk analysis. Results indicate that contagion risk from the energy towards the banking sector is not relatively high compared to other non-financial sectors. Our results provide a first indication to question the need for generalized regulation of OTC derivative transactions, as recently introduced by the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). - Highlights: • We assess the need for regulating OTC energy commodity derivatives under EMIR. • We present a methodology to model systemic risk in non-financial sectors. • We analyse direct and indirect channels for contagion giving rise to systemic risk. • Contagion risk from the energy towards the banking sector is not relatively high. • New EU regulation for energy OTC trading not supported by analysis of systemic risk

Assessment of Vegetation Variation on Primarily Creation Zones of the Dust Storms Around the Euphrates Using Remote Sensing Images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamil Amanollahi

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, period frequency and effect domain of the dust storms that enter Iran from Iraq have increased. In this study, in addition to detecting the creation zones of the dust storms, the effect of vegetation cover variation on their creation was investigated using remote sensing. Moderate resolution image Spectroradiometer (MODIS and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM5 have been utilized to identify the primarily creation zones of the dust storms and to assess the vegetation cover variation, respectively. Vegetation cover variation was studied using Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI obtained from band 3 and band 4 of the Landsate satellite. The results showed that the surrounding area of the Euphrates in Syria, the desert in the vicinity of this river in Iraq, including the deserts of Alanbar Province, and the north deserts of Saudi Arabia are the primarily creation zones of the dust storms entering west and south west of Iran. The results of NDVI showed that excluding the deserts in the border of Syria and Iraq, the area with very weak vegetation cover have increased between 2.44% and 20.65% from 1991 to 2009. In the meanwhile, the retention pound surface areas in the south deserts of Syria as well as the deserts in its border with Iraq have decreased 6320 and 4397 hectares, respectively. As it can be concluded from the findings, one of the main environmental parameters initiating these dust storms is the decrease in the vegetation cover in their primarily creation zones.

Combined Risk Measures: Representation Results and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Göttsche, O.E.

2014-01-01

The analysis and interpretation of risk play a crucial role in different areas of modern finance. This includes pricing of financial products, capital allocation and derivation of economic capital. Key to this analysis is the quantification of the risk via risk measures. A promising approach is to

The association between serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor and a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents: The CHAMPS-study DK.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Natascha Holbæk; Tarp, Jakob; Andersen, Lars Bo; Gejl, Anne Kær; Huang, Tao; Peijs, Lone; Bugge, Anna

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes pose a global health burden. Therefore, clarifying the pathology of these risk factors is essential. Previous studies have found positive and negative associations between one or more cardiovascular risk factors and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) probably due to diverse methodological approaches when analysing peripheral BDNF levels. Moreover, only a few studies have been performed in youth populations. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to examine the association between serum BDNF and a composite z-score consisting of six cardiovascular risk factors. A secondary aim was to examine the associations between serum BDNF and each of the six risk factors. Four hundred and forty-seven apparently healthy adolescents between 11-17 years of age participated in this cross-sectional study. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), anthropometrics, pubertal status, blood pressure (BP), serum BDNF, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride (TG), blood glucose and insulin were measured. Information about alcohol consumption and socio-economic status was collected via questionnaires. Associations were modelled using linear regression analysis. Serum BDNF was positively associated with the composite z-score in the total study sample (standardized beta coefficient (std.β) = 0.10, P = 0.037). In males, serum BDNF was positively associated with the composite z-score (Std. β = 0.14, P = 0.034) and HOMA-IR (Std. β = 0.19, P = 0.004), and negatively associated with CRF (Std. β = -0.15, P = 0.026). In females, BDNF was positively associated with TG (Std. β = 0.14, P = 0.030) and negatively associated with waist circumference (WC) (Std. β = -0.16, P = 0.012). Serum BDNF was positively associated with a composite z-score of cardiovascular risk factors. This association seems to be mainly driven by the association between TG, HOMA-IR and serum BDNF, and particularly for males. Further longitudinal research

The association between serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor and a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents: The CHAMPS-study DK.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natascha Holbæk Pedersen

Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes pose a global health burden. Therefore, clarifying the pathology of these risk factors is essential. Previous studies have found positive and negative associations between one or more cardiovascular risk factors and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF probably due to diverse methodological approaches when analysing peripheral BDNF levels. Moreover, only a few studies have been performed in youth populations. Consequently, the main objective of this study was to examine the association between serum BDNF and a composite z-score consisting of six cardiovascular risk factors. A secondary aim was to examine the associations between serum BDNF and each of the six risk factors.Four hundred and forty-seven apparently healthy adolescents between 11-17 years of age participated in this cross-sectional study. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF, anthropometrics, pubertal status, blood pressure (BP, serum BDNF, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, triglyceride (TG, blood glucose and insulin were measured. Information about alcohol consumption and socio-economic status was collected via questionnaires. Associations were modelled using linear regression analysis.Serum BDNF was positively associated with the composite z-score in the total study sample (standardized beta coefficient (std.β = 0.10, P = 0.037. In males, serum BDNF was positively associated with the composite z-score (Std. β = 0.14, P = 0.034 and HOMA-IR (Std. β = 0.19, P = 0.004, and negatively associated with CRF (Std. β = -0.15, P = 0.026. In females, BDNF was positively associated with TG (Std. β = 0.14, P = 0.030 and negatively associated with waist circumference (WC (Std. β = -0.16, P = 0.012.Serum BDNF was positively associated with a composite z-score of cardiovascular risk factors. This association seems to be mainly driven by the association between TG, HOMA-IR and serum BDNF, and particularly for males. Further longitudinal

Risk Assessments of Minefields in Humanitarian Mine Action - a Bayesian Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vistisen, Jan Bastholm

2006-01-01

thesis, has concentrated on the development of a risk model quantifying to what extent a minefield poses a risk to a society. The risk model is derived in two steps: First, a general model, which requires detailed information about the mined area in question, is derived. Secondly, by the introduction...... risk model seems to be the lack of actual information about the binomial parameter q. A considerable part of the enclosed thesis focuses therefore on ways to provide information about q through statistical modelling. Depending on the level of historical information available to a hypothetical decision....... The possibility of making updates of the entering probability distributions p(m) and p(q) through incoming accident statistics by the use of Bayes' rule makes the suggested risk model dynamic. Moreover, the application of Bayesian data analysis gives the derived risk model a very flexible structure which allows...

Podocytes Degrade Endocytosed Albumin Primarily in Lysosomes

Science.gov (United States)

Carson, John M.; Okamura, Kayo; Wakashin, Hidefumi; McFann, Kim; Dobrinskikh, Evgenia; Kopp, Jeffrey B.; Blaine, Judith

2014-01-01

Albuminuria is a strong, independent predictor of chronic kidney disease progression. We hypothesize that podocyte processing of albumin via the lysosome may be an important determinant of podocyte injury and loss. A human urine derived podocyte-like epithelial cell (HUPEC) line was used for in vitro experiments. Albumin uptake was quantified by Western blot after loading HUPECs with fluorescein-labeled (FITC) albumin. Co-localization of albumin with lysosomes was determined by confocal microscopy. Albumin degradation was measured by quantifying FITC-albumin abundance in HUPEC lysates by Western blot. Degradation experiments were repeated using HUPECs treated with chloroquine, a lysosome inhibitor, or MG-132, a proteasome inhibitor. Lysosome activity was measured by fluorescence recovery after photo bleaching (FRAP). Cytokine production was measured by ELISA. Cell death was determined by trypan blue staining. In vivo, staining with lysosome-associated membrane protein-1 (LAMP-1) was performed on tissue from a Denys-Drash trangenic mouse model of nephrotic syndrome. HUPECs endocytosed albumin, which co-localized with lysosomes. Choloroquine, but not MG-132, inhibited albumin degradation, indicating that degradation occurs in lysosomes. Cathepsin B activity, measured by FRAP, significantly decreased in HUPECs exposed to albumin (12.5% of activity in controls) and chloroquine (12.8%), and declined further with exposure to albumin plus chloroquine (8.2%, palbumin and chloroquine alone, and these effects were potentiated by exposure to albumin plus chloroquine. Compared to wild-type mice, glomerular staining of LAMP-1 was significantly increased in Denys-Drash mice and appeared to be most prominent in podocytes. These data suggest lysosomes are involved in the processing of endocytosed albumin in podocytes, and lysosomal dysfunction may contribute to podocyte injury and glomerulosclerosis in albuminuric diseases. Modifiers of lysosomal activity may have therapeutic

Vitamin B and its derivatives for diabetic kidney disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Raval, Amit D; Thakker, Divyesh; Rangoonwala, Arohi N; Gor, Deval; Walia, Rama

2015-01-12

Diabetes is a leading cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) mainly due to development and progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). In absence of definitive treatments of DKD, small studies showed that vitamin B may help in delaying progression of DKD by inhibiting vascular inflammation and endothelial cell damage. Hence, it could be beneficial as a treatment option for DKD. To assess the benefits and harms of vitamin B and its derivatives in patients with DKD. We searched the Cochrane Renal Group's Specialised Register to 29 October 2012 through contact with the Trials' Search Co-ordinator using search terms relevant to this review. We included randomised controlled trials comparing vitamin B or its derivatives, or both with placebo, no treatment or active treatment in patients with DKD. We excluded studies comparing vitamin B or its derivatives, or both among patients with pre-existing ESKD. Two authors independently assessed study eligibility, risk of bias and extracted data. Results were reported as risk ratio (RR) or risk differences (RD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dichotomous outcomes and mean difference (MD) with 95% CI for continuous outcomes. Statistical analyses were performed using the random-effects model. Nine studies compared 1354 participants randomised to either vitamin B or its derivatives with placebo or active control were identified. A total of 1102 participants were randomised to single vitamin B derivatives, placebo or active control in eight studies, and 252 participants randomised to multiple vitamin B derivatives or placebo. Monotherapy included different dose of pyridoxamine (four studies), benfotiamine (1), folic acid (1), thiamine (1), and vitamin B12 (1) while combination therapy included folic acid, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 in one study. Treatment duration ranged from two to 36 months. Selection bias was unclear in three studies and low in the remaining six studies. Two studies reported blinding of patient

Temporal integration of loudness in listeners with hearing losses of primarily cochlear origin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buus, Søren; Florentine, Mary; Poulsen, Torben

1999-01-01

To investigate how hearing loss of primarily cochlear origin affects the loudness of brief tones, loudness matches between 5- and 200-ms tones were obtained as a function of level for 15 listeners with cochlear impairments and for seven age-matched controls. Three frequencies, usually 0.5, 1, and 4...... of temporal integration—defined as the level difference between equally loud short and long tones—varied nonmonotonically with level and was largest at moderate levels. No consistent effect of frequency was apparent. The impaired listeners varied widely, but most showed a clear effect of level on the amount...... of temporal integration. Overall, their results appear consistent with expectations based on knowledge of the general properties of their loudness-growth functions and the equal-loudness-ratio hypothesis, which states that the loudness ratio between equal-SPL long and brief tones is the same at all SPLs...

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

An Approach to Regulation on Financial Derivatives in the Spanish Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Sanz Bayón

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This review examines the major reforms implemented in the regulations governing the trading of financial derivatives in Spain. This new regulation is intended to harmonize the treatment of derivative products with the legal standards of international markets in the European area as well as improving their competitiveness by enhancing the trading of new products and business lines in the Spanish markets while reducing the systemic risk associated to the clearing and settlement of derivatives contracts. Including measures regarding the conversion of OTC derivatives into assets quoted on organized markets into Spanish law has made an important contribution to a better regulation, security and transparency of the financial system.

Development and introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccines derived from Sabin strains in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimizu, Hiroyuki

2016-04-07

During the endgame of global polio eradication, the universal introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccines is urgently required to reduce the risk of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis and polio outbreaks due to wild and vaccine-derived polioviruses. In particular, the development of inactivated poliovirus vaccines (IPVs) derived from the attenuated Sabin strains is considered to be a highly favorable option for the production of novel IPV that reduce the risk of facility-acquired transmission of poliovirus to the communities. In Japan, Sabin-derived IPVs (sIPVs) have been developed and introduced for routine immunization in November 2012. They are the first licensed sIPVs in the world. Consequently, trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine was used for polio control in Japan for more than half a century but has now been removed from the list of vaccines licensed for routine immunization. This paper reviews the development, introduction, characterization, and global status of IPV derived from attenuated Sabin strains. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

2003-01-01

The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

Occurrence of geogenic contaminants in private wells from a crystalline bedrock aquifer in western Quebec, Canada: Geochemical sources and health risks

Science.gov (United States)

Bondu, Raphaël; Cloutier, Vincent; Rosa, Eric

2018-04-01

Nineteen private wells were investigated in order to evaluate the groundwater quality and the issues associated with well water use in a fractured metasedimentary aquifer of the Canadian Shield, in western Quebec (Canada). Groundwater sampling and analysis reveal that the quality of well water is both a potential aesthetic and health concern for the residents. Aesthetic problems are mainly related to the high levels of hardness and dissolved iron and manganese. Potential health risks are associated with the occurrence of brackish groundwater, high manganese concentrations, and arsenic concentrations exceeding the Canadian guideline value of 10 μg/l. Brackish groundwater is suspected to be derived from the mixing of fresh groundwaters with deep calcium-sodium-chloride brines of the Canadian Shield. The occurrences of iron, manganese and arsenic, primarily derived from the natural weathering of bedrock, are highly dependent on the geochemical conditions in groundwater, particularly the redox potential. Arsenic occurs mainly as arsenite (As(III)) and is thought to be released by the dissolution of iron and manganese oxyhydroxides under reducing conditions. Information obtained from well owners indicates that most households use ion exchange water softeners to minimize aesthetic problems of excessive hardness and dissolved iron and manganese concentrations. Homeowners generally take protective measures to reduce their exposure to arsenic when they are aware of the contamination. The exposure to arsenic and manganese may pose health risks for residents that do not take protective measures. The quality of well water is of paramount importance for human health in rural areas. Information on the contaminant sources and individual mitigation measures is essential to assess the health risks associated with groundwater consumption and to ensure the protection of public health.

Arbitrage-free valuation of energy derivatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amin, K.; Ng, V.; Pirrong, C.

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on techniques available for valuing energy-contingent claims and develops an arbitrage-free framework to value energy derivatives. The relationship between the spot, forward and futures prices is explained. Option valuation with deterministic convenience yields is discussed using an extension of the Black (1976) framework, and details of the risk-neutral valuation of European options, and valuation of American and European-style options are given. Option valuations with stochastic convenience yields, the evolution of the term structure of convenience yield, and a tree approach to valuing American and other options are discussed. Applications and limitations of the models for pricing energy derivative products are considered. The stochastic differential equation for the futures prices when the convenience yields are stochastic is presented in an appendix

Elemental concentration and potential ecological risk assessment of reef associated surface sediments of Appa Island, Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve, Southeast coast of India.

Science.gov (United States)

Saravanan, P; Krishnakumar, S; Silva, Judith D; Pradhap, D; Vidyasakar, A; Radhakrishnan, K; Godson, Prince S; Arumugam, K; Magesh, N S

2018-03-01

Thirty three surface sediments were collected for the present study to assess the elemental concentration and its associated ecological risk in the reef associated surface sediments, Appa Island, Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve, South east coast of India. The distribution of calcium carbonate in the reef sediments is controlled by coral debris and shell fragments whereas the Organic matter (OM) content are chiefly derived from mangroves and sea grasses. The circulation of trace elements and Fe, Mn are controlled by the fluvial process and re-suspended sediments. The concentration of Pb was primarily controlled by migration of pollutants through long shore sediment transport process. The main source of Pb in the study area is from coal incinerating power plants and coal handling operations from harbors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CONTROVERSIES IN USING DERIVATIVES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

2011-04-01

manage risks that derive from its activity and, for this purpose, to take into consideration the use of derivatives. Recent financial collapses have illustrated the consequences generated by the improper application of the basic risk management principles and of the efficient implementation strategies for derivatives.

Corporate derivatives use and firm value: Evidence from Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yusuf Ayturk

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines use of financial derivatives (currency, interest rate and commodity and its effect on firm value of non-financial Turkish firms for period of 2007–2013. Only 36.41% of companies in our sample use derivatives to hedge their currency, interest rate or commodity price risks. We have used Tobin's Q ratio analysis with panel data models, Fama-French three-factor time-series analysis and single sector analysis to investigate whether corporate derivatives use is value relevant or not. Except Tobin's Q ratio analysis with system GMM estimators, we cannot find significant hedging premium or discount for all Turkish non-financial firms. We find a positive relationship between derivatives use and firm value, only when we use Tobin's Q ratio analysis with system GMM estimators. We also test the effects of currency hedging, interest rate hedging and commodity price hedging separately and find similar results as in the case of general derivatives use. Overall, majority of our results imply that use of financial derivatives does not affect firm value in Turkish market.

Tailoring in risk communication by linking risk profiles and communication preferences: The case of speeding of young car drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Geber, Sarah; Baumann, Eva; Klimmt, Christoph

2016-12-01

Speeding is one of the most relevant risk behaviors for serious and fatal accidents, particularly among young drivers. This study presents a tailoring strategy for anti-speeding communication. By referring to their motivational dispositions toward speeding derived from motivational models of health behavior, young car drivers were segmented into different risk groups. In order to ensure that risk communication efforts would actually be capable to target these groups, the linkage between the risk profiles and communication preferences were explored. The study was conducted on the basis of survey data of 1168 German car drivers aged between 17 and 24 years. The data reveal four types of risk drivers significantly differing in their motivational profiles. Moreover, the findings show significant differences in communication habits and media use between these risk groups. By linking the risk profiles and communication preferences, implications for tailoring strategies of road safety communication campaigns are derived. Promising segmentation and targeting strategies are discussed also beyond the current case of anti-speeding campaigns. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The complex interplay of social networks, geography and HIV risk among Malaysian Drug Injectors: Results from respondent-driven sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zelenev, Alexei; Long, Elisa; Bazazi, Alexander R; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Altice, Frederick L

2016-11-01

HIV is primarily concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Malaysia, where currently HIV prevention and treatment coverage is inadequate. To improve the targeting of interventions, we examined HIV clustering and the role that social networks and geographical distance play in influencing HIV transmission among PWID. Data were derived from a respondent-driven survey sample (RDS) collected during 2010 of 460 PWID in greater Kuala Lumpur. Analysis focused on socio-demographic, clinical, behavioural, and network information. Spatial probit models were developed based on a distinction between the influence of peers (individuals nominated through a recruitment network) and neighbours (residing a close distance to the individual). The models were expanded to account for the potential influence of the network formation. Recruitment patterns of HIV-infected PWID clustered both spatially and across the recruitment networks. In addition, HIV-infected PWID were more likely to have peers and neighbours who inject with clean needles were HIV-infected and lived nearby (applied to identify injection network structures, and this provides an important mechanism for improving public health surveillance, accessing high-risk populations, and implementing risk-reduction interventions to slow HIV transmission. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Arbitrage Pricing Model: A Pedagogic Derivation and a Spreadsheet-Based Illustration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clarence C. Y. Kwan

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper derives, from a pedagogic perspective, the Arbitrage Pricing Model, which is an important asset pricing model in modern finance. The derivation is based on the idea that, if a self-financed investment has no risk exposures, the payoff from the investment can only be zero. Microsoft Excel plays an important pedagogic role in this paper. The Excel illustration not only helps students recognize more fully the various nuances in the model derivation, but also serves as a good starting point for students to explore on their own the relevance of the noise issue in the model derivation.

Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Carmen

2011-07-01

Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

National Fire Risk Map for Continental USA: Creation and Validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Q; Wollersheim, M; Griffiths, S; Maddox, I

2014-01-01

A nation-wide fire risk map for the continental USA has been created based on a hybrid fire risk model, incorporating a combination of static risk indicators which change very slowly over time, and dynamic risk indicators that may vary significantly from week-to-week. Static risk indicators include: terrain elevation, terrain slope, terrain aspect, and distance from roads and settlements. Each of the static risk indicators are derived from Intermap's high-accuracy NEXTMap ® USA database. The dynamic risk indicators are derived from satellite-based multi-spectral imagery and provide a snapshot of the fuel-moisture conditions during fire seasons. Each of these risk indicators are combined to produce a map provided at 5m posting and normalized to the range of 0 (very low risk) and 255 (very high risk). The map has been validated in two selected areas using historical fire information

Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neilson, G.H.; Gruber, C.O.; Harris, Jeffrey H.; Rej, D.J.; Simmons, R.T.; Strykowsky, R.L.

2010-01-01

The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and subassemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, which was established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-2008. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks were ultimately unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neilson, G.H.; Gruber, C.O.; Harris, J.H.; Rej, D.J.; Simmons, R.T.; Strykowsky, R.L.

2009-01-01

The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project

Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy in Western Utility Resource Plans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-08-10

Markets for renewable energy have historically been motivated primarily by policy efforts, but a less widely recognized driver is poised to also play a major role in the coming years: utility integrated resource planning (IRP). Resource planning has re-emerged in recent years as an important tool for utilities and regulators, particularly in regions where retail competition has failed to take root. In the western United States, the most recent resource plans contemplate a significant amount of renewable energy additions. These planned additions--primarily coming from wind power--are motivated by the improved economics of wind power, a growing acceptance of wind by electric utilities, and an increasing recognition of the inherent risks (e.g., natural gas price risk, environmental compliance risk) in fossil-based generation portfolios. This report examines how twelve western utilities treat renewable energy in their recent resource plans. In aggregate, these utilities supply approximately half of all electricity demand in the western United States. Our purpose is twofold: (1) to highlight the growing importance of utility IRP as a current and future driver of renewable energy, and (2) to identify methodological/modeling issues, and suggest possible improvements to methods used to evaluate renewable energy as a resource option. Here we summarize the key findings of the report, beginning with a discussion of the planned renewable energy additions called for by the twelve utilities, an overview of how these plans incorporated renewables into candidate portfolios, and a review of the specific technology cost and performance assumptions they made, primarily for wind power. We then turn to the utilities' analysis of natural gas price and environmental compliance risks, and examine how the utilities traded off portfolio cost and risk in selecting a preferred portfolio.

Immunohistochemical localization of host and donor-derived cells in the regenerating thymus of radiation bone marrow chimeras

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceredig, R.; Schreyer, M.

1984-01-01

The anatomical distribution of CBA (Thy-1.2) host and AKR (Thy-1.1) donor-derived cells in the regenerating thymus of AKR → CBA radiation bone marrow chimeras was investigated. Cryostat sections of chimeric thymuses were incubated with biotin-conjugated monoclonal anti-Thy-1 antibodies specific for host and donor-derived cells and the distribution of the corresponding Thy-1 antigen revealed by the immunoperoxidase staining technique. The thymus was initially repopulated by Thy-1.2 + host-derived cells, but by 28 days following bone marrow reconstitution the few remaining host cells were found mostly in the thymus medulla. However, occasional Thy-1.2 + cells were still present in extramedullary, primarily cortical, sites. Donor-derived (Thy-1.1 + ) cells were first seen in the 11-day chimeric thymus as single cells frequently closely associated with blood vessels in medullary areas. By 17 days, the cortex contained many Thy-1.1 + cells, although occasional single positive cells were still present in the medulla. Changes in the anatomical distribution of host and donor-derived cells in the regenerating chimeric thymus appeared to correlate with changes in their Thy-1 fluorescence profile as determined by flow microfluorometry. (Auth.)

Making Meaning of Risk: Exploring Resilient Adolescents’ Interpretations of the Impact of Negative Life Experiences

OpenAIRE

D'Sa, Nikhit

2015-01-01

Our understanding of the relationship between risk factors and resilience has been framed primarily by probability. Resilience has been conceptualized as “beating the odds”: doing better than our statistical predictions would expect given the amount of risk the individual has faced. Undoubtedly, this research has offered a rich picture into trajectories of psychosocial development. However, it has limited our exploration of the mechanisms that explain why risk factors result in resilience. Co...

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

2011-01-01

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

Futures and forward contract as a route of hedging the risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Misbahul Islam

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In the present highly uncertain business scenario, the importance of risk management is much greater than ever before. Variations in the prices of agricultural and non-agricultural commodities are induced, over time, by demand-supply dynamics. The last two decades have witnessed many-fold increase in the volume of international trade and business due to the wave of globalization and liberalization sweeping across the world. This has led to rapid and unpredictable variations in financial assets prices, interest rates and exchange rates, and subsequently, to exposing the corporate world to an unwieldy financial risk. As a result, financial markets have experienced rapid variations in interest and exchange rates, stock market prices thus exposing the corporate world to a state of growing financial risk. The emergence of derivatives market is an ingenious feat of financial engineering that provides an effective and less costly solution to the problem of risk that is embedded in the price unpredictability of the underlying asset. Derivatives provide an effective solution to the problem of risk caused by uncertainty and volatility in underlying assets. These are the financial instruments that are linked to a specific financial instrument or indicator or commodity and through which specific risks can be traded in financial markets in their own right. In actual practice there are various different types of derivatives but this paper emphasizes on the two most important types of derivatives i.e. futures and forward contracts. These two are the most commonly used types of derivatives in financial markets. We can hedge the risk of price variations in stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, market indices etc. This study is about the futures and forward contracts. This paper presents various types of futures and forward contract and what advantages and disadvantages these two important types of derivatives have? It also includes that how

Do measures matter? Comparing surface-density-derived and census-tract-derived measures of racial residential segregation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waller Lance A

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial residential segregation is hypothesized to affect population health by systematically patterning health-relevant exposures and opportunities according to individuals' race or income. Growing interest into the association between residential segregation and health disparities demands more rigorous appraisal of commonly used measures of segregation. Most current studies rely on census tracts as approximations of the local residential environment when calculating segregation indices of either neighborhoods or metropolitan areas. Because census tracts are arbitrary in size and shape, reliance on this geographic scale limits understanding of place-health associations. More flexible, explicitly spatial derivations of traditional segregation indices have been proposed but have not been compared with tract-derived measures in the context of health disparities studies common to social epidemiology, health demography, or medical geography. We compared segregation measured with tract-derived as well as GIS surface-density-derived indices. Measures were compared by region and population size, and segregation measures were linked to birth record to estimate the difference in association between segregation and very preterm birth. Separate analyses focus on metropolitan segregation and on neighborhood segregation. Results Across 231 metropolitan areas, tract-derived and surface-density-derived segregation measures are highly correlated. However overall correlation obscures important differences by region and metropolitan size. In general the discrepancy between measure types is greatest for small metropolitan areas, declining with increasing population size. Discrepancies in measures are greatest in the South, and smallest in Western metropolitan areas. Choice of segregation index changed the magnitude of the measured association between segregation and very preterm birth. For example among black women, the risk ratio for very

Risk and benefit perceptions of mobile phone and base station technology in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

van Kleef, Ellen; Fischer, Arnout R H; Khan, Moin; Frewer, Lynn J

2010-06-01

Research in developed countries showed that many citizens perceive that radio signals transmitted by mobile phones and base stations represent potential health risks. Less research has been conducted in developing countries focused on citizen perceptions of risks and benefits, despite the recent and rapid introduction of mobile communication technologies. This study aims to identify factors that are influential in determining the tradeoffs that Bangladeshi citizens make between risks and benefits in terms of mobile phone technology acceptance and health concerns associated with the technology. Bangladesh was selected as representative of many developing countries inasmuch as terrestrial telephone infrastructure is insubstantial, and mobile phone use has expanded rapidly over the last decade, even among the poor. Issues of importance were identified in a small-scale qualitative study among Bangladeshi citizens (n = 13), followed by a survey within a sample of Bangladeshi citizens (n = 500). The results demonstrate that, in general, the perceived benefits of mobile phone technology outweigh the risks. The perceived benefits are primarily related to the social and personal advantages of mobile phone use, including the ability to receive emergency news about floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters. Base stations were seen as a symbol of societal advance. The results furthermore suggest that overall risk perceptions are relatively low, in particular health risks, and are primarily driven by perceptions that related to crime and social inconvenience. Perceived health risks are relatively small. These findings show that risk communication and management may be particularly effective when contextual factors of the society where the system is implemented are taken into consideration.

Activity risk coefficients for living generations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raicevic, J.; Merkle, M.; Ninkovic, M. M.

1993-01-01

This paper deals with the new concept of the Activity risk coefficients, ARCs, which are in Probabilistic risk assessment PRA computer codes used for the calculation of the stochastic effects due to low dose exposures. As an example, ARC expressions for the Cloudshine is derived. (author)

Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

2005-01-01

Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

Preparation of new boron compounds with potential for application in 10B NCT: Derivatives of monocarbon carboranes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.H.; Khan, S.A.; Mair, F.; Peters, G.

1992-01-01

In order to extend the range and versatility of boron clusters appropriate to NCT the authors have studied routes to derivatives of the anions 1-carba-closo-dodecahydrododecaborate-1, [CB 11 H 12 ] - , (1), and its synthetic precursor, 7-carba-nido-tridecahydroundecaborate-1, [CB 10 H 13 ] - , (2). Substitution chemistry of closo-[CB 11 H 12 ] - and its derivatives had been examined previously primarily with respect to substituents at the C-atom. The different isomeric sites of boron substitution, which have been much less studied, offer potential scope for subtle modification of properties of the substituted species. They have sought to prepare thiol substituted derivatives analogous to the widely studied species [B 12 H 11 SH] 2- . The preliminary experiments to introduce the thiol substituent by routes analogous to those for the preparation of [B 12 H 11 SH] 2- or 1- and 2-[B 10 H 9 SH] 2- were unsuccessful. Therefore they considered routes involving prior substitution of either the precursor nido-[CB 10 H 13 ] - and its derivatives, or the monoboron species used for boron insertion

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, P J

2013-01-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the m otivational density , to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion

The importance of risk-aversion as a measurable psychological parameter governing risk-taking behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2013-09-01

A utility function with risk-aversion as its sole parameter is developed and used to examine the well-known psychological phenomenon, whereby risk averse people adopt behavioural strategies that are extreme and apparently highly risky. The pioneering work of the psychologist, John W. Atkinson, is revisited, and utility theory is used to extend his mathematical model. His explanation of the psychology involved is improved by regarding risk-aversion not as a discrete variable with three possible states: risk averse, risk neutral and risk confident, but as continuous and covering a large range. A probability distribution is derived, the "motivational density", to describe the process of selecting tasks of different degrees of difficulty. An assessment is then made of practicable methods for measuring risk-aversion.

Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Schweri, Juerg; Hartog, Joop; Wolter, Stefan C.

2011-01-01

We use a unique data set about the wage distribution that Swiss students expect for themselves ex ante, deriving parametric and non-parametric measures to capture expected wage risk. These wage risk measures are unfettered by heterogeneity which handicapped the use of actual market wage dispersion as risk measure in earlier studies. Students in…

Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai

2018-01-01

BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

The SAFE FOODS Risk Analysis Framework suitable for GMOs? A case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuiper, H.A.; Davies, H.V.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the current EU regulatory framework for risk analysis of genetically modified (GM) crop cultivation and market introduction of derived food/feed. Furthermore the risk assessment strategies for GM crops and derived food/feed as designed by the European Food Safety Authority

Data banks for risk assessment at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durant, W.S.; Townsend, C.S.; Baughman, D.F.; Hang, P.

1992-01-01

One of the lessons learned from many years of risk assessment experience is that mistakes of the past are soon forgotten if no method is available to retrieve and review these events. Savannah River Site has maintained a computerized data bank system for recording, retrieving and reviewing its incident history. The system is based on a series of compilations developed primarily for risk assessment but has been found to be invaluable for many other uses such as equipment reliability, project justification, and incident investigations

Operational implications of accepting and denying whether a true value of risk exists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozin, Igor

It is suggested to look on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It will be argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the suggested...... one. In general, the values of risks are not known precisely and the analyst has the option to consider that convergence to a precise value of risk is possible in the limit. That is, the true value exists but due to limited time, resources or other limitations in assessing probabilities...

Radiation risks and benefits: politics and morality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxey, M.N.

1983-01-01

The bioethical framework from which moral reasoning concerning nuclear technology has been derived is both seriously flawed and conceptually inadequate. The reasons are examined and are arranged in response to three questions. First, what is the status of alleged scientific evidence from which moral conclusions about the unacceptability of man-made radiation exposures are derived. Secondly, what criticisms of risk assessment reasoning are pertinent to ethical reflection. Finally, what revisions in an ethical framework are necessary if risk estimates of low-dose radiation exposure are to be conducted properly

A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Guasch-Ferré

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

Risk management of power supply in open electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rinta-Runsala, E.; Kiviniemi, J.

1999-12-01

The open electricity market has increased the need of risk management in electric utilities. In this publication the concepts of risk assessment and measures mostly concentrating on market risks for power supply companies are reported. An essential past of the risk management includes the electricity derivates and trade

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

Peptaibols, tetramic acid derivatives, isocoumarins, and sesquiterpenes from a Bionectria sp. (MSX 47401).

Science.gov (United States)

Figueroa, Mario; Raja, Huzefa; Falkinham, Joseph O; Adcock, Audrey F; Kroll, David J; Wani, Mansukh C; Pearce, Cedric J; Oberlies, Nicholas H

2013-06-28

An extract of the filamentous fungus Bionectria sp. (MSX 47401) showed both promising cytotoxic activity (>90% inhibition of H460 cell growth at 20 μg/mL) and antibacterial activity against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). A bioactivity-directed fractionation study yielded one new peptaibol (1) and one new tetramic acid derivative (2), and the fungus biosynthesized diverse secondary metabolites with mannose-derived units. Five known compounds were also isolated: clonostachin (3), virgineone (4), virgineone aglycone (5), AGI-7 (6), and 5,6-dihydroxybisabolol (7). Compounds 5 and 7 have not been described previously from natural sources. Compound 1 represents the second member of the peptaibol structural class that contains an ester-linked sugar alcohol (mannitol) instead of an amide-linked amino alcohol, and peptaibols and tetramic acid derivatives have not been isolated previously from the same fungus. The structures of the new compounds were elucidated primarily by high-field NMR (950 and 700 MHz), HRESIMS/MS, and chemical degradations (Marfey's analysis). All compounds (except 6) were examined for antibacterial and antifungal activities. Compounds 2, 4, and 5 showed antimicrobial activity against S. aureus and several MRSA isolates.

Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, W.L.

1976-01-01

Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Hiesmayr

Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

Discounting and Expropriation Risk

OpenAIRE

Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Risks from radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doll, Richard

1992-01-01

The best estimate of risk to which everyone is exposed from natural radon in buildings is now obtained by extrapolation from observations on men exposed to radon in mines. The relationship between dose and effect derived by the US National Research Council implies that about 6% of the current life-time risk of developing the disease in the UK is attributable to radon, but for residents of some houses it will be much greater. This estimate is dependent on many assumptions, some of which are certainly wrong, and reliable estimates can be obtained only by direct observations on people living in different houses. It is possible that radon may also cause some risk of other cancers, notably leukaemia, but such risks, if real, are certainly small. Studies in progress should provide reliable estimates of all radon induced risks within a few years. (author)

Laboratory identification of donor-derived coxsackievirus b3 transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, I J; Papadakis, G; Kaye, M; Opdam, H; Hutton, H; Angus, P W; Johnson, P D R; Kanellis, J; Westall, G; Druce, J; Catton, M

2015-02-01

Unexpected donor-to-recipient infectious disease transmission is an important, albeit rare, complication of solid organ transplantation. Greater work and understanding about the epidemiology of these donor-derived transmissions is continually required to further mitigate this risk. Herein we present the first reported case of proven donor-derived transmission of coxsackievirus serogroup-3, an enterovirus, following solid organ transplant. Swift and effective communication between the organ donation agency, treating physicians, laboratory testing and notification ensured a coordinated approach. The resulting clinical syndromes in the organ recipients were mild. This case highlights the requirement for ongoing surveillance over a broad range of infecting pathogens that may present as a donor-derived infection. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

OpenAIRE

Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

2011-01-01

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

The possibility of drought risk reduction in corn production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pajić Nemanja

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contemporary instruments for insurance risk of drought in agricultural production. Corn production is particularly sensitive to this risk, and the amount of the yield of this crop is in significant correlation with the July-August rainfall amount. Oscillations of production output, caused by the risk of drought, are reflected directly on the fluctuations of the financial result. The application of weather derivatives may decrease the variability of the mentioned economic parameter in corn production. In the investigated example of corn production, simulating the application of the weather option the coefficient of variation of realized financial results decreased by 9.64% compared to the version without the insured risk. At the same time, using the analysed insurance instrument, the risk of achieving a negative financial result is eliminated.

The risk philosophy of radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindell, B.

1996-01-01

The processes of risk assessment and risk evaluation are described. The assumptions behind current radiation risk assessments, which are focused on the probability of attributable death from radiation-induced cancer, are reviewed. These assessments involve projection models to take account of future cancer death in irradiated populations, the transfer of risk estimates between populations and the assumptions necessary to derive risk assessments for low radiation doses from actual observations at high doses. The paper ends with a presentation of the basic radiation protection recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in the context of a risk philosophy. (author)

Using Financial Instruments to Transfer the Information Security Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pankaj Pandey

2016-05-01

Full Text Available For many individuals and organizations, cyber-insurance is the most practical and only way of handling a major financial impact of an information security event. However, the cyber-insurance market suffers from the problem of information asymmetry, lack of product diversity, illiquidity, high transaction cost, and so on. On the other hand, in theory, capital market-based financial instruments can provide a risk transfer mechanism with the ability to absorb the adverse impact of an information security event. Thus, this article addresses the limitations in the cyber-(reinsurance markets with a set of capital market-based financial instruments. This article presents a set of information security derivatives, namely options, vanilla options, swap, and futures that can be traded at an information security prediction market. Furthermore, this article demonstrates the usefulness of information security derivatives in a given scenario and presents an evaluation of the same in comparison with cyber-insurance. In our analysis, we found that the information security derivatives can at least be a partial solution to the problems in the cyber-insurance markets. The information security derivatives can be used as an effective tool for information elicitation and aggregation, cyber risk pricing, risk hedging, and strategic decision making for information security risk management.

Health Risks due to Exposure to Radon in Homes in Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-09-01

This document summarises the evidence that links exposure to radon in homes with an increase in lung cancer. Using the most recent risk estimates derived from epidemiological studies carried out abroad, the risk associated with radon exposure in homes in Ireland is derived. The relationship between exposure to radon and cigarette smoking is also discussed

The impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.

2017-09-01

The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.

Late Preterm Birth, Maternal Depression, and Risk of Preschool Psychiatric Disorders

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Cynthia E.; Lenze, Shannon N.; Luby, Joan L.

2013-01-01

Objective: Preterm children are at greater risk for psychiatric disorders, including anxiety disorders and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), than their term-born peers. Prior research has focused primarily on children born at early gestational ages. Less is known about the rate of psychiatric disorders among late preterm or early…

Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

2006-01-01

Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku

2010-01-01

This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO 2 -intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO 2 -intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

Chemical compositional, biological, and safety studies of a novel maple syrup derived extract for nutraceutical applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Yuan, Tao; Li, Liya; Nahar, Pragati; Slitt, Angela; Seeram, Navindra P

2014-07-16

Maple syrup has nutraceutical potential given the macronutrients (carbohydrates, primarily sucrose), micronutrients (minerals and vitamins), and phytochemicals (primarily phenolics) found in this natural sweetener. We conducted compositional (ash, fiber, carbohydrates, minerals, amino acids, organic acids, vitamins, phytochemicals), in vitro biological, and in vivo safety (animal toxicity) studies on maple syrup extracts (MSX-1 and MSX-2) derived from two declassified maple syrup samples. Along with macronutrient and micronutrient quantification, thirty-three phytochemicals were identified (by HPLC-DAD), and nine phytochemicals, including two new compounds, were isolated and identified (by NMR) from MSX. At doses of up to 1000 mg/kg/day, MSX was well tolerated with no signs of overt toxicity in rats. MSX showed antioxidant (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) assay) and anti-inflammatory (in RAW 264.7 macrophages) effects and inhibited glucose consumption (by HepG2 cells) in vitro. Thus, MSX should be further investigated for potential nutraceutical applications given its similarity in chemical composition to pure maple syrup.

Chemical Compositional, Biological, and Safety Studies of a Novel Maple Syrup Derived Extract for Nutraceutical Applications

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Maple syrup has nutraceutical potential given the macronutrients (carbohydrates, primarily sucrose), micronutrients (minerals and vitamins), and phytochemicals (primarily phenolics) found in this natural sweetener. We conducted compositional (ash, fiber, carbohydrates, minerals, amino acids, organic acids, vitamins, phytochemicals), in vitro biological, and in vivo safety (animal toxicity) studies on maple syrup extracts (MSX-1 and MSX-2) derived from two declassified maple syrup samples. Along with macronutrient and micronutrient quantification, thirty-three phytochemicals were identified (by HPLC-DAD), and nine phytochemicals, including two new compounds, were isolated and identified (by NMR) from MSX. At doses of up to 1000 mg/kg/day, MSX was well tolerated with no signs of overt toxicity in rats. MSX showed antioxidant (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) assay) and anti-inflammatory (in RAW 264.7 macrophages) effects and inhibited glucose consumption (by HepG2 cells) in vitro. Thus, MSX should be further investigated for potential nutraceutical applications given its similarity in chemical composition to pure maple syrup. PMID:24983789

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

Management of Ciguatoxin Risk in Eastern Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, Hazel; Murray, Shauna A; Zammit, Anthony; Edwards, Alan W

2017-11-14

Between 2014 and 2016, five cases of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP), involving twenty four individuals, were linked to Spanish Mackerel ( Scomberomorus commerson ) caught in the coastal waters of the state of New South Wales (NSW) on the east coast of Australia. Previously, documented cases of CFP in NSW were few, and primarily linked to fish imported from other regions. Since 2015, thirteen individuals were affected across four additional CFP cases in NSW, linked to fish imported from tropical locations. The apparent increase in CFP in NSW from locally sourced catch, combined with the risk of CFP from imported fish, has highlighted several considerations that should be incorporated into risk management strategies to minimize CFP exposure for seafood consumers.

Risk factor: a tool for risk administration; Fator de risco: uma ferramenta para gestao de risco

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferraco Junior, Darcy; Bobsin, Marco Aurelio; Araujo, Mirian Peres de; Cabral, Simone Dias [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The risk management has been processing in an evolutionary form through the years. Derived from military development, nowadays it encircles the industries and constitutes in one of the administration elements of large and medium corporations. At the Centro de Pesquisas Leopoldo Miguez de Mello (CENPES) the matter of risk management has passed through an expressive change with the implementation of the raising of aspects and impacts (LAI) and the utilization of the risk factor as indicator of the risk administration in the managements of the research center. (author)

The formation and economic impact of perceptions of risk surrounding nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allison, T.; Calzonetti, F.; Hunter, S.

1993-01-01

This paper summarizes the results of an investigation of factors determining the nature of risk perceptions associated with eleven nuclear facilities and their impact on local economic development. The paper indicates that the nature of risk perceptions depends primarily on the level of communication by plant officials within the local community, the track record of the facility operator, the process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, and the level of economic links each facility has with the local community. The research indicates that adverse risk perceptions have not affected economic development

Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Todor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

Hedging Life and Pension Company Balance Sheets with Hybrid Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

2009-01-01

Life and Pension companies are facing enhanced risks of market due to dynamic interest rates and unprecedented volatility in equities, jeopardising guarantee of performance to policyholders and shareholders. Evolving statutory requirements and financial reporting standards, add to the challenges...... for these companies. This paper highlights the utility of "Hybrid Derivatives" and the new risk based solvency reporting system, know as "Traffic Light System" adopted by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority, as an answer to the challenges posed....

The development and characterization of a primarily mineral calcium phosphate - poly(epsilon-caprolactone) biocomposite

Science.gov (United States)

Dunkley, Ian Robert

Orthopaedic reconstruction often involves the surgical introduction of structural implants that provide for rigid fixation, skeletal stabilization, and bone integration. The high stresses incurred by these implanted devices have historically limited material choices to metallic and select polymeric formulations. While mechanical requirements are achieved, these non-degradable materials do not participate actively in the remodeling of the skeleton and present the possibility of long-term failure or rejection. This is particularly relevant in cervical fusion, an orthopaedic procedure to treat damaged, degenerative or diseased intervertebral discs. A significant improvement on the available synthetic bone replacement/regeneration options for implants to treat these conditions in the cervical spine may be achieved with the development of primarily mineral biocomposites comprised of a bioactive ceramic matrix reinforced with a biodegradable polymer. Such a biocomposite may be engineered to possess the clinically required mechanical properties of a particular application, while maintaining the ability to be remodeled completely by the body. A biocomposite of Si-doped calcium phosphate (Si-CaP) and poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) was developed for application as such a synthetic bone material for potential use as a fusion device in the cervical spine. In this thesis, a method by which high mineral content Si-CaP/PCL biocomposites with interpenetrating matrices of mineral and polymer phases may be prepared will be demonstrated, in addition to the effects of the various preparation parameters on the biocomposite density, porosity and mechanical properties. This new technique by which dense, primarily ceramic Si-CaP/PCL biocomposites were prepared, allowed for the incorporation of mineral contents ranging between 45-97vol%. Polymer infiltration, accomplished solely by passive capillary uptake over several days, was found to be capable of fully infiltrating the microporosity

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

2017-10-01

Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was LDR data provide direct evidence regarding risk from exposures at low dose rates as an important complement to the LSS risk estimates used

Host genome variations and risk of infections during induction treatment for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Bendik; Wesolowska-Andersen, Agata; Lausen, Birgitte

2014-01-01

Objectives: To investigate association of host genomic variation and risk of infections during treatment for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Methods: We explored association of 34 000 singlenucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related primarily to pharmacogenomics and immune function...

Feedstock specific environmental risk levels related to biomass extraction for energy from boreal and temperate forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamers, Patrick; Thiffault, Evelyne; Paré, David; Junginger, Martin

2013-01-01

Past research on identifying potentially negative impacts of forest management activities has primarily focused on traditional forest operations. The increased use of forest biomass for energy in recent years, spurred predominantly by policy incentives for the reduction of fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, and by efforts from the forestry sector to diversify products and increase value from the forests, has again brought much attention to this issue. The implications of such practices continue to be controversially debated; predominantly the adverse impacts on soil productivity and biodiversity, and the climate change mitigation potential of forest bioenergy. Current decision making processes require comprehensive, differentiated assessments of the known and unknown factors and risk levels of potentially adverse environmental effects. This paper provides such an analysis and differentiates between the feedstock of harvesting residues, roundwood, and salvage wood. It concludes that the risks related to biomass for energy outtake are feedstock specific and vary in terms of scientific certainty. Short-term soil productivity risks are higher for residue removal. There is however little field evidence of negative long-term impacts of biomass removal on productivity in the scale predicted by modeling. Risks regarding an alteration of biodiversity are relatively equally distributed across the feedstocks. The risk of limited or absent short-term carbon benefits is highest for roundwood, but negligible for residues and salvage wood. Salvage operation impacts on soil productivity and biodiversity are a key knowledge gap. Future research should also focus on deriving regionally specific, quantitative thresholds for sustainable biomass removal. -- Highlights: ► Synthesis of the scientific uncertainties regarding biomass for energy outtake. ► With specific focus on soil productivity, biodiversity, and carbon balance. ► Balanced determination of the risk levels

Disentangling the effects of serotonin on risk perception: S-carriers of 5-HTTLPR are primarily concerned with the magnitude of the outcomes, not the uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter; Eriksson, Elias; Agren, Thomas

2017-10-01

Serotonin signaling is vital for reward processing, and hence, also for decision-making. The serotonin transporter gene linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) has been connected to decision making, suggesting that short-allele carriers (s) are more risk averse than long-allele homozygotes (ll). However, previous research has not identified if this occurs because s-carriers (i) are more sensitive to the uncertainty of the outcomes or (ii) are more sensitive to the magnitude of the outcomes. This issue was disentangled using a willingness-to-pay task, where the participants evaluated prospects involving certain gains, uncertain gains, and ambiguous gains. The results clearly favored the hypothesis that s-carriers react more to the magnitude of the outcomes. Self-reported measures of everyday risk-taking behavior also favored this hypothesis. We discuss how these results are in line with recent research on the serotonergic impact on reward processing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price. Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lappi, Pauli; Ollikka, Kimmo; Ollikainen, Markku [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

2010-02-15

This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion. (author)

Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lappi, Pauli, E-mail: pauli.lappi@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikka, Kimmo, E-mail: kimmo.ollikka@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Ollikainen, Markku, E-mail: markku.ollikainen@helsinki.f [Department of Economics and Management, P.O. Box 27, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki (Finland)

2010-02-15

This paper studies the optimal fuel-mix of a CHP producer under emission permit price risk. The producer's multi-fuel plant uses two CO{sub 2}-intensive fuels and one clean fuel. Using a mean-variance framework we develop three models. The models are divided into spot-models (risk neutral and risk averse cases) and a forward-model (risk averse case). We derive the effects of price risk on optimal fuel use. An increase in price risk can in fact increase the use of CO{sub 2}-intensive fuel in the spot-model. In the forward-model, the production and financial decisions are separate. We also evaluate the risk-bearing behavior of seven Finnish CHP producers. We found that risk-neutrality describes behavior better than risk-aversion.

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Risk Sensitive Filtering with Poisson Process Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malcolm, W. P.; James, M. R.; Elliott, R. J.

2000-01-01

In this paper we consider risk sensitive filtering for Poisson process observations. Risk sensitive filtering is a type of robust filtering which offers performance benefits in the presence of uncertainties. We derive a risk sensitive filter for a stochastic system where the signal variable has dynamics described by a diffusion equation and determines the rate function for an observation process. The filtering equations are stochastic integral equations. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance gain for the risk sensitive filter compared with the risk neutral filter

Configuration of risk monitor system by plant defense-in-depth risk monitor and reliability monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Lind Morten; Yang Ming; Hashim Muhammad; Zhang Zhijian

2012-01-01

A new method of risk monitor system of a nuclear power plant has been proposed from the aspect by what degree of safety functions incorporated in the plant system is maintained by multiple barriers of defense-in-depth (DiD). Wherein, the central idea is plant DiD risk monitor and reliability monitor derived from the five aspects of (1) design principle of nuclear safety based on DiD concept, (2) definition of risk and risk to be monitored, (3) severe accident phenomena as major risk, (4) scheme of risk ranking, and (5) dynamic risk display. In this paper, the overall frame of the proposed risk monitor system is summarized and the detailed discussion is made on major items such as definition of risk and risk ranking, anatomy of fault occurrence, two-layer configuration of risk monitor, how to configure individual elements of plant DiD risk monitor, and lastly how to apply for a PWR safety system. (author)

Multivariate analysis of potential risk factors for lymph node metastasis in patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haisma, Marjolijn S.; Plaat, Boudewijn E. C.; Bijl, Hendrik P.; Roodenburg, Jan L. N.; Diercks, Gilles F. H.; Romeijn, Tonnis R.; Terra, Jorrit B.

2016-01-01

Background: The current knowledge about potential risk factors for lymph node (LN) metastasis in patients with head and neck cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (HNcSCC) is primarily based on studies that lack adjustment for confounding variables. Objectives: We sought to identify independent risk

Derivation of inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model using Cluster data set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Matsui

2008-09-01

Full Text Available We derive an inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model at L=2–10 using primarily Cluster electric field data for more than 5 years between February 2001 and October 2006. This electric field data set is divided into several ranges of the interplanetary electric field (IEF values measured by ACE. As ring current simulations which require electric field as an input parameter are often performed at L=2–6.6, we have included statistical results from ground radars and low altitude satellites inside the perigee of Cluster in our data set (L~4. Electric potential patterns are derived from the average electric fields by solving an inverse problem. The electric potential pattern for small IEF values is probably affected by the ionospheric dynamo. The magnitudes of the electric field increase around the evening local time as IEF increases, presumably due to the sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS. Another region with enhanced electric fields during large IEF periods is located around 9 MLT at L>8, which is possibly related to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Our potential patterns are consistent with those derived from self-consistent simulations. As the potential patterns can be interpolated/extrapolated to any discrete IEF value within measured ranges, we thus derive an empirical electric potential model. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the electric field derived from the model with original one measured by Cluster and mapped to the equator. The model is open to the public through our website.

Derivation of inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model using Cluster data set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Matsui

2008-09-01

Full Text Available We derive an inner magnetospheric electric field (UNH-IMEF model at L=2–10 using primarily Cluster electric field data for more than 5 years between February 2001 and October 2006. This electric field data set is divided into several ranges of the interplanetary electric field (IEF values measured by ACE. As ring current simulations which require electric field as an input parameter are often performed at L=2–6.6, we have included statistical results from ground radars and low altitude satellites inside the perigee of Cluster in our data set (L~4. Electric potential patterns are derived from the average electric fields by solving an inverse problem. The electric potential pattern for small IEF values is probably affected by the ionospheric dynamo. The magnitudes of the electric field increase around the evening local time as IEF increases, presumably due to the sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS. Another region with enhanced electric fields during large IEF periods is located around 9 MLT at L>8, which is possibly related to solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Our potential patterns are consistent with those derived from self-consistent simulations. As the potential patterns can be interpolated/extrapolated to any discrete IEF value within measured ranges, we thus derive an empirical electric potential model. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the electric field derived from the model with original one measured by Cluster and mapped to the equator. The model is open to the public through our website.

A Framework for Collateral Risk Control Determination

OpenAIRE

Didier Cossin; Zhijiang Huang; Daniel Aunon-Nerin; Fer nando González

2002-01-01

This paper derives a general framework for collateral risk control determination in repurchase transactions or repos. The objective is to treat consistently heterogeneous collateral so that the collateral taker has a similar risk exposure whatever the collateral pledged. The framework measures the level of risk with the probability of incurring a loss higher than a pre-specified level given two well-known parameters used to manage the intrinsic risk of collateral: marking to market and haircu...

Risk of Falling in Older Women

OpenAIRE

Laura Armas; Joan Lappe; Veronica J. Slavik; Kellan Slattery; Shih-Chuan Cheng; Davender S. Malik; John N. Mordeson

2015-01-01

We propose a weighted average approach to measure the risk of falling in older women. We consider four causal variables of falling, namely serum 25-OHD levels, medication use, fracture, and age. We use five methods to derive linear equations with these four factors as independent variables in the linear equations with risk of falling as the dependent variable.

Low-level radiation risks in people

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goloman, M.; Filjushkin, V. lgor

1993-01-01

Using the limited human data plus the relationships derived from the laboratory, a leukemia risk model has been developed as well as a suggested model for other cancers in people exposed to low levels of radiation. Theoretical experimental and epidemiological evidence will be presented in an integrated stochastic model for projection of radiation-induced cancer risks

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Statistical Analysis of Asian WeatherDerivatives

OpenAIRE

Jiao, Yue

2009-01-01

Since last decade, weather derivatives have been traded by Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) to hedge the weather risk. In addition to HDD,CDD and CAT, which are index written on the temperature in U.S. and Europe, Pacific Rim Index is newly developed and actively traded nowadays. In terms of the great value of research on this new instrument, we study the temperature dynamics of 4 cities in Asia: Tokyo, Osaka, Taipei and Beijing by a continuous-time autoregressive process. We further inferred...

The influence of jumping risk and volatility risk on TAIEX option return

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wei-Long; Hsieh, Ching-Tang; Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung

2017-06-01

Due to the low profits in recent years environmental, as well as the development of financial engineering that promote the derivatives trading Volume increased. Moreover, the fastest-growing of selected right and the lack of research about option risk. This study aim to explore the relationship between the risk and reward of selected right in Taiwan index. This study focus on the pricing the jump risk of selected right in Taiwan index. Using cross-sectional data as a 12-month study period, using the iteration method to research the effects of abnormal returns, the result shows that different risk factors of fluctuations affected the abnormal returns obviously will cause risk premium as well as the jump risk which consistent with the theory of behavioral finance. However, according to traditional finance theory, contrary to the results of this study consider that higher risks should generate higher-paying as well. According this study, the investors in behavioral finance in modern financial theory is not rational, and the trading behavior is non-random, moreover, the financial market is non-efficiency. Instead, the high risk low reward.

Factor Structure of Indices of the Second Derivative of the Finger Photoplethysmogram with Metabolic Components and Other Cardiovascular Risk Indicators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomoyuki Kawada

2013-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe second derivative of the finger photoplethysmogram (SDPTG is an indicator of arterial stiffness. The present study was conducted to clarify the factor structure of indices of the SDPTG in combination with components of the metabolic syndrome (MetS, to elucidate the significance of the SDPTG among various cardiovascular risk factors.MethodsThe SDPTG was determined in the second forefinger of the left hand in 1,055 male workers (mean age, 44.2±6.4 years. Among 4 waves of SDPTG components, the ratios of the height of the "a" wave to that of the "b" and "d" waves were expressed as b/a and d/a, and used as SDPTG indices for the analysis.ResultsPrincipal axis factoring analysis was conducted using age, SDPTG indices, components of MetS, and the serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP and uric acid. Three factors were extracted, and the SDPTG indices were categorized in combination with age as the third factor. Metabolic components and the SDPTG indices were independently categorized. These three factors explained 44.4% of the total variation. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed age, d/a, serum uric acid, serum CRP, and regular exercise as independent determinants of the risk of MetS. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals were 1.08 (1.04 to 1.11, 0.10 (0.01 to 0.73, 1.24 (1.06 to 1.44, 3.59 (2.37 to 5.42, and 0.48 (0.28 to 0.82, respectively.ConclusionThe SDPTG indices were categorized in combination with age, and they differed in characteristics from components of MetS or inflammatory markers. In addition, this cross-sectional study also revealed decrease of the d/a as a risk factor for the development of MetS.

Modeling of the influence of transparency of the derivatives market on financial depth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Burdenko

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The market of derivative tools becomes an integral part of the financial market, the functions which are carrying out in it peculiar only to it: hedging, distribution of risks, ensuring liquidity of basic assets, information support of future movement of the prices, decrease in asymmetry of information in the financial markets. However, the insufficiency or lack of transparent information can lead to emergence of the crisis phenomena, shocks in the financial market and growth of system risk. Emergence of need for strengthening of information function of the market of derivatives changes of requirements to transparency of information had been caused by financial crisis of 2008-2009. In this article the attempt of an assessment of influence was made by means of autoregressive models the change of requirements to standard transparency, such as qualitative characteristic of the derivatives market, on quantitative indices of the financial market, in particular financial depth. The results of research demonstrate that reforming of the legislation concerning strengthening of transparency in the derivatives market positively influences the growth of financial depth. The research of this question will promote the best understanding of importance of reforming of regulation of the derivatives market, in particular strengthening of requirements to transparency. Recommendations of the further researches concern the needs of input of reforms of financial regulation in the derivatives market in Ukraine, and, thus, to provide the corresponding conditions for his development

Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Scolobig

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Multi-risk environments are characterized by domino effects that often amplify the overall risk. Those include chains of hazardous events and increasing vulnerability, among other types of correlations within the risk process. The recently developed methods for multi-hazard and risk assessment integrate interactions between different risks by using harmonized procedures based on common metrics. While the products of these assessments, such as multi-hazard and -risk indexes, maps, cascade scenarios, or warning systems provide innovative and effective information, they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to their novel cross-disciplinary aspects. In this paper we discuss the institutional barriers to the adoption of multi-risk approaches, summarizing the results of the fieldwork conducted in Italy and Guadeloupe and of workshops with disaster risk reduction practitioners from eleven European countries. Results show the need for a clear identification of responsibilities for the implementation of multi-risk approaches, as institutional frameworks for risk reduction remain to this day primarily single-risk centered. Authorities are rarely officially responsible for the management of domino effects between e.g., tsunamis and industrial accidents, earthquake and landslides, floods and electricity network failures. Other barriers for the implementation of multi-risk approaches include the limited measures to reduce exposure at the household level, inadequate financial capacities at the local level and limited public-private partnerships, especially in case of interactions between natural and industrial risks. Adapting the scale of institutions to that of multi-risk environments remains a major challenge to better mainstream multi-risk approaches into policy. To address it, we propose a multi-risk governance framework, which includes the phases of observation, social and institutional context analysis, generation of

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

Environmental risk in the offshore industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, I.T.; Shirley, D.; Bottelberghs, P.H.

1991-01-01

The subject of oil pollution of the sea by the offshore industry is topical as a result of recent incidents both in the U.K. and overseas. While these incidents have primarily involved crude carriers, it has led to pressure to quantify the risk to the environment from the offshore industry in general. In this paper a method for the assessment of the frequency and size of oil spills from offshore installations is presented. It relies on previously reported spills to determine spill size/frequency information for a range of offshore activities, such as transport by pipeline, drilling and processing. Modification factors are used so local conditions, such as the number of wells drilled, throughput and well depth, can be considered in the assessment of the oil spill risk from a particular installation

A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting-Qiang Chen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

Nanoparticles affect PCR primarily via surface interactions with PCR components: using amino-modified silica-coated magnetic nanoparticles as a main model

Science.gov (United States)

Nanomaterials have been widely reported to affect the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). However, many studies in which these effects were observed were not comprehensive, and many of the proposed mechanisms have been primarily speculative. In this work, we used amino-modified silica-coated magnetic n...

A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA can be used within the framework of extreme risk events.

The Surgical Site Infection Risk Score (SSIRS: A Model to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl van Walraven

Full Text Available Surgical site infections (SSI are an important cause of peri-surgical morbidity with risks that vary extensively between patients and surgeries. Quantifying SSI risk would help identify candidates most likely to benefit from interventions to decrease the risk of SSI.We randomly divided all surgeries recorded in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2010 into a derivation and validation population. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine the independent association of patient and surgical covariates with the risk of any SSI (including superficial, deep, and organ space SSI within 30 days of surgery. To capture factors particular to specific surgeries, we developed a surgical risk score specific to all surgeries having a common first 3 numbers of their CPT code.Derivation (n = 181 894 and validation (n = 181 146 patients were similar for all demographics, past medical history, and surgical factors. Overall SSI risk was 3.9%. The SSI Risk Score (SSIRS found that risk increased with patient factors (smoking, increased body mass index, certain comorbidities (peripheral vascular disease, metastatic cancer, chronic steroid use, recent sepsis, and operative characteristics (surgical urgency; increased ASA class; longer operation duration; infected wounds; general anaesthesia; performance of more than one procedure; and CPT score. In the validation population, the SSIRS had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.800, 95% CI 0.795-0.805 and calibration.SSIRS can be calculated using patient and surgery information to estimate individual risk of SSI for a broad range of surgery types.

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improving ecological risk assessment of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals by using an integrated modeling system - An example assessing chloroparaffins in riverine environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Chemical risk assessment (CRA) is primarily carried out at the screening level relying on empirical relationships between chemical properties and tested toxicity effects. Ultimately, risk to aquatic ecosystems is strongly dependent on actual exposure, which depends on chemical pr...

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Rossi, M.; Riccio, G.; Romero, E.; Francisco, D.

2016-01-01

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and

Meat Consumption as a Risk Factor for Type 2 Diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neal Barnard

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Disease risk factors identified in epidemiological studies serve as important public health tools, helping clinicians identify individuals who may benefit from more aggressive screening or risk-modification procedures, allowing policymakers to prioritize intervention programs, and encouraging at-risk individuals to modify behavior and improve their health. These factors have been based primarily on evidence from cross-sectional and prospective studies, as most do not lend themselves to randomized trials. While some risk factors are not modifiable, eating habits are subject to change through both individual action and broader policy initiatives. Meat consumption has been frequently investigated as a variable associated with diabetes risk, but it has not yet been described as a diabetes risk factor. In this article, we evaluate the evidence supporting the use of meat consumption as a clinically useful risk factor for type 2 diabetes, based on studies evaluating the risks associated with meat consumption as a categorical dietary characteristic (i.e., meat consumption versus no meat consumption, as a scalar variable (i.e., gradations of meat consumption, or as part of a broader dietary pattern.

Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (3/3)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

2009-01-01

IR and Long Term FX Derivatives - Stochastic Martingales for IR Curves - Implied Volatility Along the IR Curve - IR Libor Bonds - Vanilla IR Options: Caplets, Floorlets - Long Term FX Options: Interaction of Stochastic FX and Stochastic IR - $-Yen Bermudan Power Reverse Duals

Prospective cohort study of tea consumption and risk of digestive system cancers: results from the Shanghai Women's Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nechuta, Sarah; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Cai, Hui; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei

2012-11-01

Data from in vitro and animal studies support a protective role for tea in the etiology of digestive system cancers; however, results from prospective cohort studies have been inconsistent. In addition, to our knowledge, no study has investigated the association of tea consumption with the incidence of all digestive system cancers in Chinese women. We investigated the association of regular tea intake (≥3 times/wk for >6 mo) with risk of digestive system cancers. We used the Shanghai Women's Health Study, a population-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged and older Chinese women who were recruited in 1996-2000. Adjusted HRs and associated 95% CIs were derived from Cox regression models. After a mean follow-up of 11 y, 1255 digestive system cancers occurred (stomach, esophagus, colorectal, liver, pancreas, and gallbladder/bile duct cancers) in 69,310 nonsmoking and non-alcohol-drinking women. In comparison with women who never drank tea, regular tea intake (mostly green tea) was associated with reduced risk of all digestive system cancers combined (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.98), and the reduction in risk increased as the amount and years of tea consumption increased (P-trend = 0.01 and P-trend digestive system cancers combined (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.63, 0.99). The inverse association was found primarily for colorectal and stomach/esophageal cancers. In this large prospective cohort study, tea consumption was associated with reduced risk of colorectal and stomach/esophageal cancers in Chinese women.

The Serotonin Transporter Undergoes Constitutive Internalization and Is Primarily Sorted to Late Endosomes and Lysosomal Degradation*

Science.gov (United States)

Rahbek-Clemmensen, Troels; Bay, Tina; Eriksen, Jacob; Gether, Ulrik; Jørgensen, Trine Nygaard

2014-01-01

The serotonin transporter (SERT) plays a critical role in regulating serotonin signaling by mediating reuptake of serotonin from the extracellular space. The molecular and cellular mechanisms controlling SERT levels in the membrane remain poorly understood. To study trafficking of the surface resident SERT, two functional epitope-tagged variants were generated. Fusion of a FLAG-tagged one-transmembrane segment protein Tac to the SERT N terminus generated a transporter with an extracellular epitope suited for trafficking studies (TacSERT). Likewise, a construct with an extracellular antibody epitope was generated by introducing an HA (hemagglutinin) tag in the extracellular loop 2 of SERT (HA-SERT). By using TacSERT and HA-SERT in antibody-based internalization assays, we show that SERT undergoes constitutive internalization in a dynamin-dependent manner. Confocal images of constitutively internalized SERT demonstrated that SERT primarily co-localized with the late endosomal/lysosomal marker Rab7, whereas little co-localization was observed with the Rab11, a marker of the “long loop” recycling pathway. This sorting pattern was distinct from that of a prototypical recycling membrane protein, the β2-adrenergic receptor. Furthermore, internalized SERT co-localized with the lysosomal marker LysoTracker and not with transferrin. The sorting pattern was further confirmed by visualizing internalization of SERT using the fluorescent cocaine analog JHC1-64 and by reversible and pulse-chase biotinylation assays showing evidence for lysosomal degradation of the internalized transporter. Finally, we found that SERT internalized in response to stimulation with 12-myristate 13-acetate co-localized primarily with Rab7- and LysoTracker-positive compartments. We conclude that SERT is constitutively internalized and that the internalized transporter is sorted mainly to degradation. PMID:24973209

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bender, Edward T.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

(-)Deprenyl and (-)1-phenyl-2-propylaminopentane, [(-)PPAP], act primarily as potent stimulants of action potential-transmitter release coupling in the catecholaminergic neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoll, J; Miklya, I; Knoll, B; Markó, R; Kelemen, K

1996-01-01

The activity of the catecholaminergic neurons in the rat brain is enhanced significantly 30 min after the subcutaneous injection of very small doses of (-)deprenyl (threshold doses: 0.01 mg/kg for noradrenergic neurons and 0.025 mg/kg for dopaminergic neurons). As a catecholaminergic activity enhancer (CAE) substance (-)deprenyl is about ten times more potent than its parent compound, (-)methamphetamine. While the (+)methamphetamine is 3-5 times more potent than (-)methamphetammine in releasing catecholamines, the (-)methamphetamine is the more potent CAE substance. The mechanism of the CAE effect of (-)deprenyl and (-)PPAP, a deprenyl-derived substance devoid of MAO inhibitory potency, was studied in rats by measuring: a) the release of catecholamines from striatum, substantia nigra, tuberculum olfactorium and locus coeruleus; b) the stimulation induced release of 3H-noradrenaline from the isolated brain stem; and c) the antagonistic effect against tetrabenazine-induced depression of learning in the shuttle box. The CAE effect was found to be unrelated: a) to the inhibition of MAO activity; b) to the inhibition of presynaptic catecholamine receptors; c) to the inhibition of the uptake of catecholamines; and d) to the release of catecholamines. It was concluded that (-)deprenyl and (-)PPAP act primarily as potent stimulants of action potential-transmitter release coupling in the catecholaminergic neurons of the brain. We show that both (-)deprenyl and (-)PPAP enhance the inward Ca2+ current in sino-auricular fibers of the frog heart. (-)PPAP was much more potent than either (+)PPAP or (-)deprenyl in this test.

Efficient transfection of DNA into primarily cultured rat sertoli cells by electroporation.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fuping; Yamaguchi, Kohei; Okada, Keisuke; Matsushita, Kei; Enatsu, Noritoshi; Chiba, Koji; Yue, Huanxun; Fujisawa, Masato

2013-03-01

The expression of exogenous DNA in Sertoli cells is essential for studying its functional genomics, pathway analysis, and medical applications. Electroporation is a valuable tool for nucleic acid delivery, even in primarily cultured cells, which are considered difficult to transfect. In this study, we developed an optimized protocol for electroporation-based transfection of Sertoli cells and compared its efficiency with conventional lipofection. Sertoli cells were transfected with pCMV-GFP plasmid by square-wave electroporation under different conditions. After transfection of plasmid into Sertoli cells, enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) expression could be easily detected by fluorescent microscopy, and cell survival was evaluated by dye exclusion assay using Trypan blue. In terms of both cell survival and the percentage expressing EGFP, 250 V was determined to produce the greatest number of transiently transfected cells. Keeping the voltage constant (250 V), relatively high cell survival (76.5% ± 3.4%) and transfection efficiency (30.6% ± 5.6%) were observed with a pulse length of 20 μm. The number of pulses significantly affected cell survival and EGFP expression (P transfection methods, the transfection efficiency of electroporation (21.5% ± 5.7%) was significantly higher than those of Lipofectamine 2000 (2.9% ± 1.0%) and Effectene (1.9% ± 0.8%) in this experiment (P transfection of Sertoli cells.

Management of Ciguatoxin Risk in Eastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, Hazel; Murray, Shauna A.; Zammit, Anthony; Edwards, Alan W.

2017-01-01

Between 2014 and 2016, five cases of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP), involving twenty four individuals, were linked to Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) caught in the coastal waters of the state of New South Wales (NSW) on the east coast of Australia. Previously, documented cases of CFP in NSW were few, and primarily linked to fish imported from other regions. Since 2015, thirteen individuals were affected across four additional CFP cases in NSW, linked to fish imported from tropical locations. The apparent increase in CFP in NSW from locally sourced catch, combined with the risk of CFP from imported fish, has highlighted several considerations that should be incorporated into risk management strategies to minimize CFP exposure for seafood consumers. PMID:29135913

Management of Ciguatoxin Risk in Eastern Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hazel Farrell

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Between 2014 and 2016, five cases of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP, involving twenty four individuals, were linked to Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson caught in the coastal waters of the state of New South Wales (NSW on the east coast of Australia. Previously, documented cases of CFP in NSW were few, and primarily linked to fish imported from other regions. Since 2015, thirteen individuals were affected across four additional CFP cases in NSW, linked to fish imported from tropical locations. The apparent increase in CFP in NSW from locally sourced catch, combined with the risk of CFP from imported fish, has highlighted several considerations that should be incorporated into risk management strategies to minimize CFP exposure for seafood consumers.

Pricing of Asian temperature risk

OpenAIRE

Benth, Fred; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; López Cabrera, Brenda

2009-01-01

Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...

Managing Risk and Opportunity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...