WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk decision making

  1. Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backus, G.B.C.; Eidman, V.R.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1997-01-01

    Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective

  2. Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, Pedro Nuno Rino Carreira

    2016-01-01

    Doutoramento em Gestão Risk and attitudes towards risk play a central role in several areas such as economics and psychology. Interestingly, in economics risk attitudes are addressed under the umbrella of the Utility Theory, while in psychology they are measured by psychometric scales. Risk attitudes in financial decision making are here studied under both approaches with the concern of understanding how they are related. So, I propose a conceptual model that explains risk attitudes, I ...

  3. Rational group decision making in risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, M.H.

    1987-01-01

    Risk management has received increasing attention recently as methods of quantifying risk have been evolving. This is considered a legitimate tendency in the context of the entirety of risk evaluation which connotes both risk quantification and decisions making thereon. A risk-free society does not appear possible; neither could one have zero competing risks or cost versus benefit resulting out of a risk-abatement effort. What further complicates the risk-decision problem is that there exists more than a single decision maker, who claim their own interests associated with risk decision. Furthermore, their risk perceptions are not at all same that the threshold risk levels for a particular actions are varying. In this dissertation, a brief survey on existing action levels for various sort of risk situations including carcinogens, toxic chemicals, etc., is reported on, with emphasis on nuclear risk situation. A decision theoretic approach is then adopted in both individual and group-level risk management. For the purpose of exemplification, multiplicative utility theory is applied for nuclear power risk; attributes derived for this specific purpose are discussed

  4. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  5. Risk - Informed decision making at Loviisa NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, J.K. [Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Loviisa (Finland)

    1999-09-01

    PSA has been used in many ways for risk-informed decision making at Loviisa power station. The most fruitful areas so far include: 1) Identification of dominating risk contributors and possible means for reducing risk by plant modification and improved procedures. 2) Providing risk perspective and economic criteria for assessing backfitting proposals. 3) Assessing the significance of ageing and needs for renewals. 4) Limiting, prioritising and optimising plant modifications. 5) Reducing testing requirements. 6) Justification of temporary aswell as permanent configurations and extended outage times. 7) Planning and prioritisation of training programs. (au)

  6. Risk - Informed decision making at Loviisa NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, J.K.

    1999-01-01

    PSA has been used in many ways for risk-informed decision making at Loviisa power station. The most fruitful areas so far include: 1) Identification of dominating risk contributors and possible means for reducing risk by plant modification and improved procedures. 2) Providing risk perspective and economic criteria for assessing backfitting proposals. 3) Assessing the significance of ageing and needs for renewals. 4) Limiting, prioritising and optimising plant modifications. 5) Reducing testing requirements. 6) Justification of temporary as well as permanent configurations and extended outage times. 7) Planning and prioritisation of training programs. (au)

  7. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  8. Risks, values, and decision making surrounding pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, Anne Drapkin; Mitchell, Lisa M; Armstrong, Elizabeth M; Harris, Lisa H; Kukla, Rebecca; Kuppermann, Miriam; Little, Margaret Olivia

    2007-04-01

    Assessing, communicating, and managing risk are among the most challenging tasks in the practice of medicine and are particularly difficult in the context of pregnancy. We analyze common scenarios in medical decision making around pregnancy, from reproductive health policy and clinical care to research protections. We describe three tendencies in these scenarios: 1) to consider the probabilities of undesirable outcomes alone, in isolation from women's values and social contexts, as determinative of individual clinical decisions and health policy; 2) to regard any risk to the fetus, including incremental risks that would in other contexts be regarded as acceptable, as trumping considerations that may be substantially more important to the wellbeing of the pregnant woman; and 3) to focus on the risks associated with undertaking medical interventions during pregnancy to the exclusion of demonstrable risks to both woman and fetus of failing to intervene. These tendencies in the perception, communication, and management of risk can lead to care that is neither evidence-based nor patient-centered, often to the detriment of both women and infants.

  9. The treatment of uncertainties in risk for regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baybutt, P.; Cox, D.C.; Denning, R.S.; Kurth, R.E.; Fraley, D.W.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted in an ongoing program at Battelle to develop and adapt decision analysis methods for regulatory decision making. A general approach to risk-based decision making is discussed. The nature of uncertainties in risk assessment is described and methods for their inclusion in decision making are proposed. The use of decision analysis methods in regulatory decision making and the consideration of uncertainties is illustrated in a realistic case study

  10. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk......Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models...

  11. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  12. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    confidence interval under different assumptions regarding the data structure. The results stress the importance to invoke statistical methods and also illustrate how the choice of a wrong methodology may affect the quality of risk assessment and foundations for decision making. The uncertainty in assessing the volume of contaminated soil was shown to be dependant only to a low extent on the interpolation technique used for the specific case study analyzed. It is, however, expected that the uncertainty may increase significantly, if more restrictive risk criteria (lower guideline value) are applied. Despite a possible low uncertainty in assessing the contaminated soil volume, the uncertainty in its localization can be substantial. Based on the demo example presented, it comes out that the risk-based input for decision on soil treatment may vary depending on what assumptions were adopted during interpolation process. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation till spatial distribution of contaminant has been demonstrated by studies on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). The results from numerical simulations show that a lack in knowledge on the receptor moving routes may bring about substantial uncertainty in exposure assessment. The presented concept is mainly applicable for 'mobile' receptors on relatively large areas. A number of statistical definitions/methods/concepts are presented in the report of which some are not elaborated on in detail, while readers are referred to proper literature. The mail goal with the study has been rather to shed more light on aspects related to uncertainty in risk assessment and to demonstrate potential consequences of wrong approach than to provide readers with formal guideline and recommendations. However, the outcome from the study will hopefully contribute to the further work on novel approaches towards more reliable risk assessments

  13. Perceptions of LWR risk for decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, J.; Asselin, S.

    1984-01-01

    The Industry Degraded Core (IDCOR) Program was designed to develop a comprehensive, technically sound position on the issues related to potential accidents in light water reactors. One of the goals is to acquire knowledge and data so that a more realistic approach to the problem is possible. Some of the IDCOR tasks develop information in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) framework. The PRA approach is structured upon reliability characteristics for individual components, such as pumps, valves and relays, which can be used to predict the frequency of system failures. System failure combinations can then be used to predict the probability of undesirable plant response to given initiating events. The IDCOR PRA tasks provide a significant amount of information related to the response of the plant to severe accidents. This information has been derived in a logical and consistent manner and so provides a coherent and rational basis for decision-making

  14. Goal Setting and Decision Making by At-Risk Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galotti, Kathleen M.; Kozberg, Steven F.; Gustafon, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Typically, adolescence is a time when individuals begin to make consequential, life-framing decisions. However, much of the decision-making literature focuses on high-risk decisions, such as the use of drugs and alcohol, while much less is known about how adolescents make positive decisions, for example, regarding their educational or career…

  15. Epistemic risks: challenges in assessment and decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor

    . There are calls to revisions ranging from the definition of risk and stretching to the use of risk analysis results in decision making. The talk will centre in answering the following questions: Why conventional approach to risk analysis is challenged? What are alternatives? How to operationalise the inclusion...... of epistemic uncertainty in risk analysis? How to make decisions based on risk analysis results?...

  16. Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.

  17. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  18. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  19. Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

    2014-04-01

    Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

  20. Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

  1. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  2. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  3. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  4. Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

    2012-02-01

    Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Decision-making Under Risk in Children, Adolescents, and Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ePaulsen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children’s preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  6. Perceptions of corporate cyber risks and insurance decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Smidt, Guido; Botzen, Wouter

    This study provides an analysis of individual perceptions of cyber risks amongst professional decision makers. Data are collected using a survey of corporate professionals who are engaged in risk and insurance decision-making in various functional roles mainly in large companies. The study focuses

  7. INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

    1980-08-01

    This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

  8. Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

    2018-01-22

    Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

  9. Hierarchical decision making for flood risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2013-01-01

    . In current practice, structures are often optimized individually without considering benefits of having a hierarchy of protection structures. It is here argued, that the joint consideration of hierarchically integrated protection structures is beneficial. A hierarchical decision model is utilized to analyze...... and compare the benefit of large upstream protection structures and local downstream protection structures in regard to epistemic uncertainty parameters. Results suggest that epistemic uncertainty influences the outcome of the decision model and that, depending on the magnitude of epistemic uncertainty...

  10. Making the decision to mitigate risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

    2007-01-01

    Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

  11. The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milićević Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

  12. Risk perception and clinical decision making in primary care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfoed, Benedicte Marie Lind

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We aim to present new knowledge about different perspectives of health care professionals’ risk perceptions and clinical decision making. Furthermore, we intend to discuss differences between professional and personal risk perceptions and the impact on decisions in terms of both short...... and long-term outcomes. Background Insight into healthcare professionals’ perception of risk is a cornerstone for understanding their strategies for practising preventive care. The way people perceive risk can be seen as part of a general personality trait influenced by a mixture of individual...... considerations and the specific context. Most research has been focused on understanding of the concepts of risk. However healthcare professionals’ risk perception and personal attitudes also affect their clinical decision-making and risk communication. The differences between health care professionals’ personal...

  13. Altered Decision-Making under Risk in Obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan F Navas

    Full Text Available The negative consequences of energy dense foods are well known, yet people increasingly make unhealthy food choices leading to obesity (i.e., risky decisions. The aims of this study were: [1] to compare performance in decision-making tasks under risk and under ambiguity between individuals with obesity, overweight and normal weight; [2] to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI and decision-making, and the degree to which these associations are modulated by reward sensitivity.Seventy-nine adults were recruited and classified in three groups according to their BMI: obesity, overweight and normal-weight. Groups were similar in terms of age, education and socio-economic status, and were screened for comorbid medical and mental health conditions. Decision-making under risk was measured via the Wheel of Fortune Task (WoFT and decision-making under ambiguity via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT. Reward sensitivity was indicated by the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire (SPSRQ.Individuals with obesity made riskier choices in the WoFT, specifically in choices with an expected value close to zero and in the propensity to risk index. No differences were found in IGT performance or SPSRQ scores. BMI was associated with risk-taking (WoFT performance, independently of reward sensitivity.Obesity is linked to a propensity to make risky decisions in experimental conditions analogous to everyday food choices.

  14. Risk perception, safety goals and regulatory decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoegberg, Lars

    1998-01-01

    Deciding on 'how safe is safe enough?' includes value judgements with implications of an ethical and political nature. As regulators are accountable to governments, parliaments and the general public, regulatory decision-making should be characterized by transparency with respect to how such value judgements are reflected in risk assessments and regulatory decisions. Some approaches in this respect are discussed in the paper, based on more than fifteen years of experience in nuclear regulatory decision-making. Issues discussed include: (1) risk profiles and safety goals associated with severe reactor accidents--individual health risks, societal risks and risk of losing investments; (2) risk profile-based licensing of the Swedish SFR final disposal facility for low and intermediate level radioactive waste

  15. Risk informed decision making - a pre-study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Pulkkinen, U.

    2004-04-01

    Examples of risk-informed decisions are establishing maintenance programmes, optimising inspection policies and justifying plant modifications, and revising technical specifications. Applications in daily situations can be such as accepting or rejecting exemptions from technical specifications. The aim of this pre-study was to identify the status of risk-informed decision making at Swedish and Finnish nuclear power plants and nuclear safety authorities. Responses to a questionnaire were obtained either by interviews or by e-mail from two Swedish and two Finnish NPPs, SKI and STUK. The development of a risk-informed decision procedure based on decision analytic ideas is worth recommending. A clear documentation format is a part of such procedure. In order to serve as a basis for final decision, the documentation should include clearly defined decision criteria, qualification of PSA model for the issue under analysis, description of most important uncertainties and assumptions. (au)

  16. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Application of PSA in risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) models have been successfully employed during design evaluation to assess weak links and carry out design modifications to improve system reliability and safety. Recently, studies are directed towards applying PSA in various decision making issues concerned with plant operations and safety regulations. This necessitates development of software tools like Living PSA, Risk Monitor etc. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool developed to assess the risk, based on the actual status of systems and components. Such tools find wide application with plant personnel and regulatory authorities since they can provide solutions to various plant issues and regulatory decision making issues respectively. (author)

  18. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  19. Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Enrico Rubaltelli; Sergio Agnoli; Michela Rancan; Tiziana Pozzoli

    2015-01-01

    Previous work on investment decision-making suggested that emotions prevent investors from taking risks and from investing in a rational way, whereas other work found that there is great variability in people’s ability to manage and use emotional feedbacks. We hypothesized that people with high trait emotional intelligence should be more willing, than people with low trait emotional intelligence, to accept risks when making an investment. Data supported a model in which trait emotional intell...

  20. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

  1. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  2. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  3. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  4. Decision-Making Competence Predicts Domain-Specific Risk Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua eWeller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision Making Competence (DMC reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804 completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery (A-DMC; Bruine de Bruin, Parker, & Fischhoff, 2007. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC  expected benefits  risk-taking than the DMC  perceived riskrisk-taking path, especially for risk behaviors that may be considered more antisocial in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of the given behavior.

  5. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  6. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  7. Selection of tolerable risk criteria for dam safety decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, N.M.; Hartford, D.N.D.; MacDonald, T.F.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment has received increasing attention in recent years as a means of aiding decision making on dams by providing systematic and rational methods for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Risk assessment is controversial and decisions affecting risk to life are the most controversial. Tolerable criteria, based on the risks that society is prepared to accept in order to avoid excessive costs, set bounds within which risk-based decisions may be made. The components of risk associated with dam safety are addressed on an individual basis and criteria established for each component, thereby permitting flexibility in the balance between component risk and avoiding the problems of placing a monetary value on life. The guiding principle of individual risk is that dams do not impose intolerable risks on any individual. A risk to life of 1 in 10 4 per annum is generally considered the maximum tolerable risk. When considering societal risk, the safety of a dam should be proportional to the consequences of its failure. Risks of financial losses beyond the corporation's ability to finance should be so low as to be considered negligible. 17 refs., 3 figs

  8. Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    John Garrick, B.; Hall, James E.; Kilger, Max; McDonald, John C.; O'Toole, Tara; Probst, Peter S.; Rindskopf Parker, Elizabeth; Rosenthal, Robert; Trivelpiece, Alvin W.; Van Arsdale, Lee A.; Zebroski, Edwin L.

    2004-01-01

    This report offers a methodology for assessing, quantitatively, the risks of terrorism. The purpose of the methodology is to support effective decision making to combat terrorism. The emphasis is on terrorist attacks that could have catastrophic consequences. The perspective taken is that in order to make the right decisions about combating terrorism, their needs to be a systematic means of assessing the likelihood of such attacks. A process of implementation of the decisions resulting from risk assessment is essential. That process includes (1) an understanding of the nature of the threat, (2) an information system linked directly to 'intelligence' on terrorism, and (3) organizational structures that can take timely, coordinated, and effective actions. There must also be sound evidence that the methodology can be successfully applied. A description of the nature of terrorism, a terrorism risk assessment methodology, information requirements to fight terrorism, and recommendations for successful implementation is what this report is about

  9. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  10. A different approach to quantifying fire risks when decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, Adrian

    1991-01-01

    This article outlines an alternative approach to fire safety design which involves decision making on the basis of risk considerations. The methodology is being developed in conjunction with the nuclear industry but is considered equally applicable to other industrial facilities. (author)

  11. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  12. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  13. Decision making in young people at familial risk of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannie, Z N; Williams, C; Browning, M; Cowen, P J

    2015-01-01

    Major depression is associated with abnormalities in reward processing at neural and behavioural levels. Neural abnormalities in reward have been described in young people at familial risk of depression but behavioural changes in reward-based decision making have been less studied in this group. We studied 63 young people (mean age 18.9 years) with a parent with a diagnosis of major depression but who had never been depressed themselves, that is with a positive family history of depression (the FH+ group). Participants performed the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT), which provides several measures of decision making including deliberation time, quality of decision making, risk taking, risk adjustment and delay aversion. A control group of 49 age- and gender-matched young people with no history of mood disorder in a first-degree relative undertook the same task. Both FH+ participants and controls had low and equivalent scores on anxiety and depression self-rating scales. Compared to controls, the FH+ participants showed overall lower risk taking, although like controls they made more risky choices as the odds of a favourable outcome increased. No other measures of decision making differed between the two groups. Young people at increased familial risk of depression have altered risk taking that is not accounted for by current affective symptomatology. Lowered risk taking might represent an impairment in reward seeking, which is one of several changes in reward-based behaviours seen in acutely depressed patients; however, our findings suggest that decreased reward seeking could be part of a risk endophenotype for depression.

  14. Regulatory approach to risk informed decision making in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chande, S.K.; Koley, J.

    2001-01-01

    Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), the authority for licensing and monitoring safety in Indian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), makes use of insights gained from PSA together with the results of the other deterministic analyses in taking decisions regarding the acceptability of the safety of the NPPs. PSA provides an estimation of risks; it also gives information on a balanced design by revealing interaction between engineered features and weak areas in a design. For regulatory use, PSA needs to be carried out using standardized methodology and state of the art technology. PSA helps regulators in taking faster and consistent decisions. Keeping in mind the limitations associated with PSA study, AERB has decided to adopt risk-informed decision making in regulatory licensing process. This paper describes the AERB policy regarding PSA and gives an overview of the experience in this area. (author)

  15. Risk-informed decision making during Bohunice NPP safety upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipar, M.; Muzikova, E.; Kubanyi, J.

    2001-01-01

    The paper summarizes some facts of risk-informed regulation developments within UJD regulatory environment. Based on national as well as international operating experience and indications resulted from PSA, Nuclear Regulatory Authority of the Slovak Republic (UJD) since its constituting in 1993 has devoted an effort to use PSA technology to support the regulatory policy in Slovakia. The PSA is considered a complement, not a substitute, to the deterministic approach. Suchlike integrated approach is used in decision making processes and the final decision on scope and priorities is based on it. The paper outlines risk insights used in the decision making process concerning Bohunice NPP safety upgrading and focuses on the role of PSA results in Gradual Reconstruction of Bohunice VI NPP. Besides, two other examples of the PSA results application to the decision making process are provided: the assessment of proposal of modifications to the main power supply diagram (incorporation of generator switches) and the assessment of licensee request for motor generator AOT (Allowable Outage Time) extension. As an example of improving support of Bohunice V-2 risk-informed operations, concept of AOT calculations and Bohunice V-2 Risk Monitor Project are briefly described. (author)

  16. Emotion regulation and decision making under risk and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, Renata M; Crişan, Liviu G; Houser, Daniel; Miclea, Mircea; Miu, Andrei C

    2010-04-01

    It is well established that emotion plays a key role in human social and economic decision making. The recent literature on emotion regulation (ER), however, highlights that humans typically make efforts to control emotion experiences. This leaves open the possibility that decision effects previously attributed to acute emotion may be a consequence of acute ER strategies such as cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression. In Study 1, we manipulated ER of laboratory-induced fear and disgust, and found that the cognitive reappraisal of these negative emotions promotes risky decisions (reduces risk aversion) in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and is associated with increased performance in the prehunch/hunch period of the Iowa Gambling Task. In Study 2, we found that naturally occurring negative emotions also increase risk aversion in Balloon Analogue Risk Task, but the incidental use of cognitive reappraisal of emotions impedes this effect. We offer evidence that the increased effectiveness of cognitive reappraisal in reducing the experience of emotions underlies its beneficial effects on decision making. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  18. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  19. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  20. Got risk? risk-centric perspective for spacecraft technology decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2004-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making methodology conceived and developed at JPL and NASA has been used to aid in decision making for spacecraft technology assessment, adoption, development and operation. It takes a risk-centric perspective, through which risks are used as a reasoning step to interpose between mission objectives and risk mitigation measures.

  1. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  2. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in

  3. Needs for Risk Informing Environmental Cleanup Decision Making - 13613

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Ming; Moorer, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the needs for risk informing decision making by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM). The mission of the DOE EM is to complete the safe cleanup of the environmental legacy brought about from the nation's five decades of nuclear weapons development and production and nuclear energy research. This work represents some of the most technically challenging and complex cleanup efforts in the world and is projected to require the investment of billions of dollars and several decades to complete. Quantitative assessments of health and environmental risks play an important role in work prioritization and cleanup decisions of these challenging environmental cleanup and closure projects. The risk assessments often involve evaluation of performance of integrated engineered barriers and natural systems over a period of hundreds to thousands of years, when subject to complex geo-environmental transformation processes resulting from remediation and disposal actions. The requirement of resource investments for the cleanup efforts and the associated technical challenges have subjected the EM program to continuous scrutiny by oversight entities. Recent DOE reviews recommended application of a risk-informed approach throughout the EM complex for improved targeting of resources. The idea behind this recommendation is that by using risk-informed approaches to prioritize work scope, the available resources can be best utilized to reduce environmental and health risks across the EM complex, while maintaining the momentum of the overall EM cleanup program at a sustainable level. In response to these recommendations, EM is re-examining its work portfolio and key decision making with risk insights for the major sites. This paper summarizes the review findings and recommendations from the DOE internal reviews, discusses the needs for risk informing the EM portfolio and makes an attempt to identify topics for R and D in integrated

  4. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  5. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ersdal, Gerhard; Aven, Terje

    2008-01-01

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle

  6. Risk informed decision-making and its ethical basis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ersdal, Gerhard [University of Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: gerhard.ersdal@ptil.no; Aven, Terje [University of Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-02-15

    In decision-making under uncertainty there are two main questions that need to be evaluated: (i) What are the future consequences and associated uncertainties of an action, and (ii) what is a good (or right) decision or action. Philosophically these issues are categorized as epistemic questions (i.e. questions of knowledge) and ethical questions (i.e. questions of moral and norms). This paper discusses the second issue, and evaluates different risk management approaches for establishing good decisions, using different ethical theories as a basis. These theories include the utilitarian ethics of Bentley and Mills, and deontological ethics of Kant, Rawls and Habermas. The risk management approaches include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), minimum safety criterion, the ALARP principle and the precautionary principle.

  7. Quantified risk assessment: its input to decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The conclusions are that QRA cannot be ignored in decision making, that human behaviour can significantly influence the standard of safety achieved in practice, that QRA can assist judgement, that it is not legitimate to 'read across' risk figures from one type of hazard to another to infer a uniform numerical level or limit and finally that major disasters can and do happen but the chance of any one happening must be kept very low. (author)

  8. The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

    1989-01-01

    This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

  9. On the treatment of dependence in making decisions about risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bier, V.M.

    1989-01-01

    Much attention has been paid to the treatment of dependence in performing probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). For instance, causal dependencies (e.g., common cause failures, cascade failures, and intersystem dependencies) have been taken into account in PRAs beginning with the Reactor Safety Study (USNRC, 1975). In addition, beginning in the early 1980s, attention began to be paid to the issue of probabilistic dependence between the failure rates (Apostolakis and Kaplan, 1981) or seismic fragilities (Kaplan, 1985) of similar components, and the impact of such dependence on risk estimates. By now, it has been clearly demonstrated that failure to take either casual or probabilistic dependence into account in PRAs can lead to misleading results, typically underestimates of the true risk. However, there has been little attention to date on the effects of dependence in the area of decision making. The objectives of this paper are to illustrate the potential importance of dependence in making decisions about risks, and to present some ideas on how to communicate the effects of dependence to decision makers in a clear and easily comprehensible manner

  10. Risk concepts in UK nuclear safety decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brighton, P.W.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the concept of risk as understood in the UK, with particular reference to the use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in nuclear safety decision making. The way 'risk' appears in UK fundamental legislation means that the concept cannot be limited to evaluation of numerical probabilities of physical harm. Rather the focus is on doing all that is reasonably practicable to reduce risks: this entails applying relevant good practice and then seeking further safety measures until the money, time and trouble required are grossly disproportionate to the residual risk. PSA is used to inform rather than dictate such decisions. This approach is reinforced by considering how far any practical PSA can be said to measure risk. The behaviour of complex socio-technical systems such as nuclear power stations does not meet the conditions under which probability theory can be applied in an absolutely objective statistical sense. Risk is not an intrinsic real property of such systems. Rather PSA is a synthesis of data and subjective expert judgements, dependent on the extent of detailed knowledge of the plant. There are many other aspects of engineering judgement involved in safety decisions which cannot be so captured. (author)

  11. Risk perception as a factor in policy and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    2004-01-01

    Risk perception is often believed to be an important factor in policy decision making, when it comes to the management of hazardous technology. Research on risk perception by the public since the 1970's has purportedly shown that such perception is emotional and based on ignorance. Experts, on the other hand, have been claimed to be objective and correct in their risk assessments. The present paper reviews a large body of research which has led to a quite different conclusions, viz. that emotions play only a marginal role in risk perception, which is mainly driven by ideological concerns and attitudes. The methodological shortcomings of the prevailing view of risk perception as emotional and simply misinformed are described. (author)

  12. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    , provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

  13. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  14. Exploiting risk-reward structures in decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuker, Christina; Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Pleskac, Timothy J

    2018-06-01

    People often have to make decisions under uncertainty-that is, in situations where the probabilities of obtaining a payoff are unknown or at least difficult to ascertain. One solution to this problem is to infer the probability from the magnitude of the potential payoff and thus exploit the inverse relationship between payoffs and probabilities that occurs in many domains in the environment. Here, we investigated how the mind may implement such a solution: (1) Do people learn about risk-reward relationships from the environment-and if so, how? (2) How do learned risk-reward relationships impact preferences in decision-making under uncertainty? Across three experiments (N = 352), we found that participants can learn risk-reward relationships from being exposed to choice environments with a negative, positive, or uncorrelated risk-reward relationship. They were able to learn the associations both from gambles with explicitly stated payoffs and probabilities (Experiments 1 & 2) and from gambles about epistemic events (Experiment 3). In subsequent decisions under uncertainty, participants often exploited the learned association by inferring probabilities from the magnitudes of the payoffs. This inference systematically influenced their preferences under uncertainty: Participants who had been exposed to a negative risk-reward relationship tended to prefer the uncertain option over a smaller sure option for low payoffs, but not for high payoffs. This pattern reversed in the positive condition and disappeared in the uncorrelated condition. This adaptive change in preferences is consistent with the use of the risk-reward heuristic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2009-10-07

    Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

  16. Background risk information to assist in risk management decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammonds, J.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; White, R.K.; Miller, D.B.

    1992-10-01

    The evaluation of the need for remedial activities at hazardous waste sites requires quantification of risks of adverse health effects to humans and the ecosystem resulting from the presence of chemical and radioactive substances at these sites. The health risks from exposure to these substances are in addition to risks encountered because of the virtually unavoidable exposure to naturally occurring chemicals and radioactive materials that are present in air, water, soil, building materials, and food products. To provide a frame of reference for interpreting risks quantified for hazardous waste sites, it is useful to identify the relative magnitude of risks of both a voluntary and involuntary nature that are ubiquitous throughout east Tennessee. In addition to discussing risks from the ubiquitous presence of background carcinogens in the east Tennessee environment, this report also presents risks resulting from common, everyday activities. Such information should, not be used to discount or trivialize risks from hazardous waste contamination, but rather, to create a sensitivity to general risk issues, thus providing a context for better interpretation of risk information

  17. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  18. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks. PMID:26106311

  19. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O'Brien

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching and whole-body leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory. Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the whole-body task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the whole-body movements than in arm-reaching at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects’ inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  20. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  1. Neural Correlates of Feedback Processing in Decision Making under Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beate eSchuermann

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Event-related brain potentials (ERP provide important information about the sensitivity of the brain to process varying risks. The aim of the present study was to determine how different risk levels are reflected in decision-related ERPs, namely the feedback-related negativity (FRN and the P300. Material and Methods. 20 participants conducted a probabilistic two-choice gambling task while an electroencephalogram was recorded. Choices were provided between a low-risk option yielding low rewards and low losses and a high-risk option yielding high rewards and high losses. While options differed in expected risks, they were equal in expected values and in feedback probabilities. Results. At the behavioral level, participants were generally risk-averse but modulated their risk-taking behavior according to reward history. An early positivity (P200 was enhanced on negative feedbacks in high-risk compared to low-risk options. With regard to the FRN, there were significant amplitude differences between positive and negative feedbacks in high-risk options, but not in low-risk options. While the FRN on negative feedbacks did not vary with decision riskiness, reduced amplitudes were found for positive feedbacks in high-risk relative to low-risk choices. P300 amplitudes were larger in high-risk decisions, and in an additive way, after negative compared to positive feedback. Discussion. The present study revealed significant influences of risk and valence processing on ERPs. FRN findings suggest that the reward prediction error signal is increased after high-risk decisions. The increased P200 on negative feedback in risky decisions suggests that large negative prediction errors are processed as early as in the P200 time range. The later P300 amplitude is sensitive to feedback valence as well as to the risk of a decision. Thus, the P300 carries additional information for reward processing, mainly the enhanced motivational significance of risky

  2. Risk informed decision making. Topical issues paper no. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Szikszai, T.

    2001-01-01

    To date, probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) have been performed for more than 200 nuclear power plants (NPPs) worldwide and are under various stages of development for most of the remaining NPPs. The state-of-the-art is to have a full scope Level 2 PSA (including external events and low power and shutdown) which is maintained as a 'living PSA' with regular updating. Modern computer technology allows frequent recalculations of the PSA to evaluate the impact of changes in operation or design and allows use of the PSA in the form of safety or risk monitors. There is a general agreement, as documented in various IAEA Safety Standards, that the deterministic approach to nuclear safety should be complemented by a probabilistic approach. Though PSAs have been used extensively in the past, it was usually limited to a variety of applications on a case by case basis as deemed necessary or useful. There is now a recent development led by the USA, and followed by several other countries, to move to a much expanded use of PSA in what is termed 'risk informed decision making'. The main driving force behind this movement is the expectation that the use of risk insights can result in both improved safety and a reduction in unnecessary regulatory requirements, hence leading to a more efficient use of resources for NPP operators and the regulatory authority. One of the key challenges in truly risk informed decision making is the reconciliation of PSA results and insights with traditional deterministic analysis. This is particularly true when it comes to defence in depth and safety margins. PSA results often conflict with deterministic insights. If a method of reconciling these conflicts is not defined, then risk informed can become deterministic plus PSA. This results in PSA being an additional layer of requirements rather than a tool for optimized decision making. Alternatively, if PSA information is always used to override deterministic considerations, then that is a 'risk

  3. Anticipatory stress influences decision making under explicit risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starcke, Katrin; Wolf, Oliver T; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

    2008-12-01

    Recent research has suggested that stress may affect memory, executive functioning, and decision making on the basis of emotional feedback processing. The current study examined whether anticipatory stress affects decision making measured with the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps both executive functioning and feedback learning. The authors induced stress in 20 participants by having them anticipate giving a public speech and also examined 20 comparison subjects. The authors assessed the level of stress with questionnaires and endocrine markers (salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase), both revealing that speech anticipation led to increased stress. Results of the GDT showed that participants under stress scored significantly lower than the comparison group and that GDT performance was negatively correlated with the increase of cortisol. Our results indicate that stress can lead to disadvantageous decision making even when explicit and stable information about outcome contingencies is provided.

  4. Technological risk: The limits of science in decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.; Elliott, P.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between science and decision making yb reference to a series of debates in South Wales centring around a high-temperature icineration plant operated by Rechem

  5. A decision making framework for risk-informed technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, B. S.; Kim, I. S.; Seo, M. S.; Sung, G. Y.

    2001-01-01

    The RITS literature survey on regulatory requirements and current TS research status in Korea as well as in foreign countries has been performed. Based on this survey, the RITS decision-making framework for the licensee and regulator point-of-view, respectively, is introduced in this paper. The required documents for the licensee to prepare are suggested in a systematic approach; the decision-making process of regulators for evaluating the documents is recommended

  6. Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

    2013-01-01

    In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

  7. Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie Steelandt

    Full Text Available In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie. We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

  8. Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

    2013-01-01

    In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

  9. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  10. A new importance measure for risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, several authors pointed out that the traditional importance measures had limitations. In this study, the problem through an analysis at the parameter level was investigated and a new measure was introduced. The measure was based on small parameter variations and is capable of accounting for the importance of a group of components/parameters. The definition, computational steps, and an application of a new importance measure for risk-informed decision making were presented here. Unlike traditional importance measures, differential importance measure (DIM) deals with changes in the various parameters that determine the unavailability/unreliability of a component, e.g., failure rates, common-cause failure rates, individual human errors. The importance of the component unavailability/unreliability can be calculated from the importance of the parameters. DIM can be calculated for the frequency of initiating events, while risk achievement worth (RAW) is limited to binary events, e.g., component unavailability. The changes in parameters are 'small'. This is more realistic than the drastic assumption in RAW that the component is always down. DIM is additive. This allows the evaluation of the impact of changes, such as the relaxation of quality assurance requirements, which affect groups of parameters, e.g., the failure rates of a group of pumps. (M.N.)

  11. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  12. Female Adolescent Contraceptive Decision Making and Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Sharon A.; Green, Vicki

    1993-01-01

    Findings from 60 sexually active, unmarried females, ages 14 through 18, revealed that cognitive capacity and cognitive egocentrism variables as well as age, grade, and ethnic status significantly predicted 6 of 7 decision-making variables in contraceptive use model. One cognitive capacity variable and one sexual contraceptive behavior variable…

  13. Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this document is to describe a Framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of decision‐making processes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  14. Making Risk Models Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, P.R.; Coles, G.; Shoemaker, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present CARIM, a decision support tool to aid in the evaluation of plans for converting control systems to digital instruments. The model provides the capability to optimize planning and resource allocation to reduce risk from multiple safety and economic perspectives. (author)

  15. Decision making under ambiguity but not under risk is related to problem gambling severity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Bechara, Antoine; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between problem gambling severity and decision-making situations that vary in two degrees of uncertainty (probability of outcome is known: decision-making under risk; probability of outcome is unknown: decision-making under ambiguity). For

  16. Cognitive abilities and superior decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward T. Cokely

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Individual differences in cognitive abilities and skills can predict normatively superior and logically consistent judgments and decisions. The current experiment investigates the processes that mediate individual differences in risky choices. We assessed working memory span, numeracy, and cognitive impulsivity and conducted a protocol analysis to trace variations in conscious deliberative processes. People higher in cognitive abilities made more choices consistent with expected values; however, expected-value choices rarely resulted from expected-value calculations. Instead, the cognitive ability and choice relationship was mediated by the number of simple considerations made during decision making --- e.g., transforming probabilities and considering the relative size of gains. Results imply that, even in simple lotteries, superior risky decisions associated with cognitive abilities and controlled cognition can reflect metacognitive dynamics and elaborative heuristic search processes, rather than normative calculations. Modes of cognitive control (e.g., dual process dynamics and implications for process models of risky decision-making (e.g., priority heuristic are discussed.

  17. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  18. Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.

    2006-01-01

    Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study

  19. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  20. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  1. Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    2009-01-01

    Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

  2. Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P. [QuantiSci Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-01

    The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument.

  3. Assessing the value of risk: Perspectives on the role of risk information in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.; Smith, Graham; Maul, P.

    1999-01-01

    The authors of this paper profess no formal ethical or philosophical training from which to develop their position on Values in Decisions on Risk. However, as scientists with practical experience in carrying out a range of quantitative studies, we consider that we have some understanding of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in environmental risk assessment. Moreover, in attempting to use the results of such assessments, we have observed some of the ways in which quantitative risk information is used and abused. In this paper, therefore, we offer a practitioner's perspective that underlines the essential role of risk as a tool to inform and guide decisions, while at the same time emphasising the need for its proportionate use in a complex arena. We draw on experience that includes assessments for radioactive waste management and disposal, but also incorporates a range of assignments where assessment of the scale of potential environmental liabilities was a critical factor in decision making. We do not pretend to offer a resolution to the challenges laid before this Symposium, but seek to explore common themes and lessons learned regarding the role of risk information in goal-setting, performance monitoring and the overall decision process. Policy makers and regulators must act responsibly to protect confidence, not just the health of people and the environment. In doing this, to ignore risk information as a key component of strategic thinking is equally as disproportionate as making it the sole basis for decision making. There is a clear need to explain better the basis of, and motives behind, decisions - not only in terms of transparency in risk assessment but also to distinguish between the scientific and the socio-political component of the argument

  4. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  5. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka

    2001-01-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards

  6. Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

  7. Risk Aversion is Associated with Decision Making among Community-Based Older Persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2012-01-01

    Risk aversion is associated with many important decisions among younger and middle aged persons, but the association of risk aversion with decision making has not been well studied among older persons who face some of the most significant decisions of their lives. Using data from 606 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the association of risk aversion with decision making. Risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $20 to $300 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. Decision making was measured using a 12 item version of the Decision Making Competence Assessment Tool. In a linear regression model adjusted for age, sex, education, and income, greater risk aversion was associated with poorer decision making [estimate = -1.03, standard error (SE) = 0.35, p = 0.003]. Subsequent analyses showed that the association of risk aversion with decision making persisted after adjustment for global cognitive function as well as executive and non-executive cognitive abilities. Similar to findings from studies of younger persons, risk aversion is associated with poorer decision making among older persons who face a myriad of complex and influential decisions.

  8. Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description

  9. Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

    2014-01-01

    Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

  10. Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

  11. Social and behavioral research on risk: uses in risk management decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1984-01-01

    The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principal uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decision-making. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems. (author)

  12. Development of a decision analytic model to support decision making and risk communication about thrombolytic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMeekin, Peter; Flynn, Darren; Ford, Gary A; Rodgers, Helen; Gray, Jo; Thomson, Richard G

    2015-11-11

    Individualised prediction of outcomes can support clinical and shared decision making. This paper describes the building of such a model to predict outcomes with and without intravenous thrombolysis treatment following ischaemic stroke. A decision analytic model (DAM) was constructed to establish the likely balance of benefits and risks of treating acute ischaemic stroke with thrombolysis. Probability of independence, (modified Rankin score mRS ≤ 2), dependence (mRS 3 to 5) and death at three months post-stroke was based on a calibrated version of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument using data from routinely treated stroke patients in the Safe Implementation of Treatments in Stroke (SITS-UK) registry. Predictions in untreated patients were validated using data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). The probability of symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage in treated patients was incorporated using a scoring model from Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-Monitoring Study (SITS-MOST) data. The model predicts probabilities of haemorrhage, death, independence and dependence at 3-months, with and without thrombolysis, as a function of 13 patient characteristics. Calibration (and inclusion of additional predictors) of the Stroke-Thrombolytic Predictive Instrument (S-TPI) addressed issues of under and over prediction. Validation with VISTA data confirmed that assumptions about treatment effect were just. The C-statistics for independence and death in treated patients in the DAM were 0.793 and 0.771 respectively, and 0.776 for independence in untreated patients from VISTA. We have produced a DAM that provides an estimation of the likely benefits and risks of thrombolysis for individual patients, which has subsequently been embedded in a computerised decision aid to support better decision-making and informed consent.

  13. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  14. Perception and communication of risk in decision making by persons with dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Mabel; Savage, Beverley; Taylor, Brian J

    2017-01-01

    Communication of risks must involve people with dementia meaningfully to ensure informed and inclusive decision-making processes. This qualitative study explored concepts of risk from the perspective of persons with dementia and their experiences of communicating risk with family members and professionals. Data was analysed using grounded theory. Seventeen people in Northern Ireland with mild-moderate dementia who had recently made a decision about their daily life or care involving consideration of risks were interviewed between November 2015 and November 2016. A wide range of actual or feared risks were identified relating to: daily activities; hobbies and socialising; mental health and medicines; and risks to and from others. 'Risk' often held emotional rather than probability connotations. Constructive communications to address issues were presented. Problem-solving models of both active and passive decision-making about risks were evident. Effective risk communication in informed decision-making processes about health and social care is discussed.

  15. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  16. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-08-01

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  17. Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendure, A.O.

    1995-03-01

    Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

  18. Sex and HIV serostatus differences in decision making under risk among substance-dependent individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Eileen; Gonzalez, Raul; Vassileva, Jasmin; Maki, Pauline M; Bechara, Antoine; Brand, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    HIV+ individuals with and without substance use disorders make significantly poorer decisions when information about the probability and magnitude of wins and losses is not available. We administered the Game of Dice Task, a measure of decision making under risk that provides this information explicitly, to 92 HIV+ and 134 HIV- substance-dependent men and women. HIV+ participants made significantly poorer decisions than HIV- participants, but this deficit appeared more prominent among HIV+ women. These data indicate that decision making under risk is impaired among HIV+ substance-dependent individuals (SDIs). Potential factors for the HIV+ women's relatively greater impairment are discussed.

  19. On the perceived usefulness of risk descriptions for decision-making in disaster risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Lexin; Nilsson, Anders; Sjölin, Johan; Abrahamsson, Marcus; Tehler, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Managing risk using an “all-hazards” and “whole of society”-approach involves extensive communication of risk descriptions among many stakeholders. In the present study we investigate how professionals working with disaster risk management in such contexts perceive the usefulness of different descriptions of risk. Empirical data from the Swedish disaster risk management system were used in an attempt to investigate the aspects of a risk description that affect its usefulness (as perceived by professionals). Thirty-three local municipal risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA documents) produced in the region of Scania in 2012 were analyzed in terms of six variables. The documents were then ranked by professionals based on their perceived usefulness for decision-making. Statistical analysis was conducted to identify any possible correlations between the overall ranking of the usefulness of the municipal RVA:s and each of the variables. We conclude that the way the likelihood and consequences of scenarios are described influence the perceived usefulness of a risk description. Furthermore, whether descriptions of scenarios are included in a risk description or not, and whether background information concerning the likelihood of scenarios are included also influence perceived usefulness of risk descriptions. - Highlights: • Written communication of risk between professionals is investigated. • The way likelihood is described influences a risk description's usefulness. • The way consequences are described influence a risk description's usefulness. • Whether background information is included in a risk description influences its usefulness

  20. Risk communication and decision-making in the prevention of invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Ann H

    2017-08-01

    Risk communication surrounding the prevention of invasive breast cancer entails not only understanding of the disease, risks and opportunities for intervention. But it also requires understanding and implementation of optimal strategies for communication with patients who are making these decisions. In this article, available evidence for the issues surrounding risk communication and decision making in the prevention of invasive breast cancer are reviewed and strategies for improvement are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

    Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

  2. Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

  3. The relationship between burnout and risk-taking in workplace decision-making and decision-making style

    OpenAIRE

    Michailidis, E; Banks, AP

    2016-01-01

    The study aimed to investigate what type of decision styles are exhibited by employees who experience burnout. Using a Work Risk Inventory (WRI), developed for this study, which included generic workplace scenarios, it was also explored whether employees experiencing burnout take more risky decisions. Risk was conceptualised as the adoption of threatening decisions towards one’s reputation at work, job performance and job security. The mediating effect of the likelihood and seriousness of the...

  4. Whose Values? Whose Risk? Exploring Decision Making About Trial of Labor After Cesarean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B

    2018-06-01

    In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.

  5. Risk Analysis: Its Application to Argumentation and Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follert, Vincent

    1981-01-01

    Notes that utility theory has enjoyed renewed interest among debate critics and other decision makers. Some of the problems with its application are identified and guidelines for debaters are suggested. (PD)

  6. Introduction to the special issue: Intuition and affect in risk perception and decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Gisela Boehm; Wibecke Brun

    2008-01-01

    (from the introduction) Intuition and affect have been neglected topics in the literature on human judgment and decision making for a long time. Judgmental processes involved in risk perception and decision making have traditionally been conceptualized as cognitive in nature, being based upon a rational and deliberate evaluation of the alternatives at hand. This picture started to change in the early 1980s when decision researchers looked beyond rational, deliberate, and cognitive processes a...

  7. Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

    2016-05-01

    Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. Performing a secondary executive task with affective stimuli interferes with decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathmann, Bettina; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Schöler, Tobias; Brand, Matthias

    2014-05-01

    Previous studies demonstrated that executive functions are crucial for advantageous decision making under risk and that therefore decision making is disrupted when working memory capacity is demanded while working on a decision task. While some studies also showed that emotions can affect decision making under risk, it is unclear how affective processing and executive functions predict decision-making performance in interaction. The current experimental study used a between-subjects design to examine whether affective pictures (positive and negative pictures compared to neutral pictures), included in a parallel executive task (working memory 2-back task), have an impact on decision making under risk as assessed by the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Moreover, the performance GDT plus 2-back task was compared to the performance in the GDT without any additional task (GDT solely). The results show that the performance in the GDT differed between groups (positive, negative, neutral, and GDT solely). The groups with affective pictures, especially those with positive pictures in the 2-back task, showed more disadvantageous decisions in the GDT than the groups with neutral pictures and the group performing the GDT without any additional task. However, executive functions moderated the effect of the affective pictures. Regardless of affective influence, subjects with good executive functions performed advantageously in the GDT. These findings support the assumption that executive functions and emotional processing interact in predicting decision making under risk.

  9. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.

  10. Impaired decision-making under risk in individuals with alcohol dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine; Cleeremans, Axel; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision making to alcohol dependence. Methods Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals, and thirty healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task), and decision-making under-risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (Digit-span Forward), and dual-tasking (Operation-span Task). Results Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the Iowa Gambling Task, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes sub-serving working memory and risky decisions. Conclusion These results suggest that alcohol dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity), and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes. PMID:24948198

  11. Restructuring of Values and Probabilities: Psychological Processes in Human Decision Making under Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svenson, Ola; Salo, Ilkka [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

    2001-07-01

    According to Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con), the decision maker's representations of values and probabilities are interdependent and changing over time in risky decision making. This is a clear violation of most normative theories of decision making. The present contribution will present Diff Con and provide empirical illustrations of how mental representations of values and probabilities change over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings concerning expert and lay people decision making about risks and hazards.

  12. Durable decision-making is central to the control of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebroski, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    In several capacities the author has promoted the importance of risk analysis techniques as a rational path to the improved assurance of safety. The interest in decisions arose from the persistent observation of only moderate or minor impacts or benefits to practical operations from the availability of wall documented risk analysis studies for many nuclear units. The complexity and number of variables in decisions on matters of safety of large scale operations defies ordinary intuitive decision making. The structured decision process is not a panacea, but is often the practical tool of choise for managing complexity in an orderly way. Typical basic sources for decision techniques are listed in references. (orig.)

  13. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  14. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  15. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  16. Managing cancer risk and decision making after kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, A C; Wong, G; Craig, J C; Chapman, J R

    2008-11-01

    Kidney transplant recipients are at higher risk of cancer at most sites, and cancer after transplantation causes considerable morbidity and mortality. To optimize long-term patient outcomes, clinicians balance the prospect of graft failure and dialysis, with competing risks of diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and the risk of malignancy. In this paper we critically examine the assumptions underpinning primary prevention, immunization, chemoprevention and screening programs, and highlight considerations when applying evidence to the kidney transplant population, and suggest a clinical research agenda that aims to define a rational approach to managing posttransplant cancer risk.

  17. Making decisions about liability and insurance a special issue of the journal of risk and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Kunreuther, Howard

    1993-01-01

    Two related trends have created novel challenges for managing risk in the United States. The first trend is a series of dramatic changes in liability law as tort law has expanded to assign liability to defendants for reasons other than negligence. The unpredictability of future costs induced by changes in tort law may be partly responsible for the second major trend known as the `liability crisis' - the disappearance of liability protection in markets for particularly unpredictable risks. This book examines decisions people make about insurance and liability. An understanding of such decision making may help explain why the insurance crisis resulted from the new interpretations of tort law and what to do about it. The articles cover three kinds of decisions: consumer decisions to purchase insurance; insurer decisions about coverage they offer; and the decisions of the public about the liability rules they prefer, which are reflected in legislation and regulation. For each of these three kinds of decisions, no...

  18. Decision making under ambiguity and under risk in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delazer, Margarete; Zamarian, Laura; Bonatti, Elisabeth; Kuchukhidze, Giorgi; Koppelstätter, Florian; Bodner, Thomas; Benke, Thomas; Trinka, Eugen

    2010-01-01

    Decision making is essential in everyday life. Though the importance of the mesial temporal lobe in emotional processing and feedback learning is generally recognized, decision making in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE) is almost unexplored so far. Twenty-eight consecutive epilepsy patients with drug resistant mTLE and fifty healthy controls performed decision tasks under initial ambiguity (participants have to learn by feedback to make advantageous decisions) and under risk (advantageous choices may be made by estimating risks and by rational strategies). A subgroup analysis compared the performance of patients affected by MRI-verified abnormalities of the hippocampus or amygdala. The effect of lesion side was also assessed. In decision under ambiguity, mTLE patients showed marked deficits and did not improve over the task. Patients with hippocampus abnormality and patients with amygdala abnormality showed comparable deficits. No difference was found between right and left TLE groups. In decision under risk, mTLE patients performed at the same level as controls. Results suggest that mTLE patients have difficulties in learning from feedback and in making decisions in uncertain, ambiguous situations. By contrast, they are able to make advantageous decisions when full information is given and risks, possible gains and losses are exactly defined.

  19. Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Linda D.; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.

    2017-01-01

    Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory. PMID:29225669

  20. Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Linda D; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P

    2017-05-01

    Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory.

  1. Risk Assessment and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Tunnel and Underground Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanpu Xia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of uncertainty on risk assessment and decision-making is increasingly being prioritized, especially for large geotechnical projects such as tunnels, where uncertainty is often the main source of risk. Epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced, is the focus of attention. In this study, the existing entropy-risk decision model is first discussed and analyzed, and its deficiencies are improved upon and overcome. Then, this study addresses the fact that existing studies only consider parameter uncertainty and ignore the influence of the model uncertainty. Here, focus is on the issue of model uncertainty and differences in risk consciousness with different decision-makers. The utility theory is introduced in the model. Finally, a risk decision model is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis and the tolerance cost, which can improve decision-making efficiency. This research can provide guidance or reference for the evaluation and decision-making of complex systems engineering problems, and indicate a direction for further research of risk assessment and decision-making issues.

  2. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials — The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-01

    and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a “holy grail” for informing risk management...

  3. How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Enrique Fatás; Tibor Neugebauer; Pilar Tamborero

    2004-01-01

    We report on an experimental study with real-world politicians. These political experts face political choice problems under risk and probability. Thus, we test the frequently observed violations of rational choice theory -the reference point effect, loss aversion, framing effects, and the common ratio effect- with experts from the field. Their choices violate expected utility theory. Nevertheless, they appear to be more rational and less risk averse (loving) in the domain of gains (losses) t...

  4. Risk management in facility transition and management decision making: Needs and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.; Seaver, D.; Keller, J.; Smith, D.; Weaver, D.; Sanders, T.; Thullen, P.

    1993-02-01

    An overall approach to risk management is described in this paper. Many of these concepts have been developed and applied as part of Hanford Mission Planning (HMP) (Hanford Mission Plan, 1992). At Hanford, HMP provides a mechanism for integrating planning across all the missions and programs of the site. This paper discusses the decision context within which EM must make and defend decisions, the types of decisions that are being and will need to be made in order to progress with the cleanup of the DOE complex, and the resulting need for risk management. Risk management, in turn, requires quality health and ecological risk information to make these decisions. Other types of information are also needed, but the risk information is typically the most important and the most difficult to obtain. The paper then describes a general technical approach to risk management, including particular methods for developing the high quality of human health and ecological risk information that will be needed to support risk management. We next turn to several special issues that make risk management more complex than many other decisions. We discuss these issues and offer some practical suggestions with respect to addressing them in the risk management framework. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of other opportunities for applying risk management

  5. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  6. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  7. The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas eFooken

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Different methods to elicit risk attitudes of individuals often provide differing results despite a common theory. Reasons for such inconsistencies may be the different influence of underlying factors in risk-taking decisions. In order to evaluate this conjecture, a better understanding of underlying factors across methods and decision contexts is desirable. In this paper we study the difference in result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age and personality traits, which have been shown to be related. We also investigate the role of these factors during decision-making in a dilemma situation. For these two decision contexts we also investigate the decision-maker's physiological state during the decision, measured by heart rate variability (HRV, which we use as an indicator of emotional involvement. We found that the two elicitation methods provide different individual risk attitude measures which is partly reflected in a different gender effect between the methods. Personality traits explain only relatively little in terms of driving risk attitudes and the difference between methods. We also found that risk taking and the physiological state are related for one of the methods, suggesting that more emotionally involved individuals are more risk averse in the experiment. Finally, we found evidence that personality traits are connected to whether individuals made a decision in the dilemma situation, but risk attitudes and the physiological state were not indicative for the ability to decide in this decision context.

  8. Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holmes-Rovner Margaret

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Methods Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. Results When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes. The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% – 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. Conclusions In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the

  9. Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Zio, Enrico

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the challenges involved in the representation and treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment, taking the point of view of its use in support to decision making. Two main issues are addressed: (1) how to faithfully represent and express the knowledge available to best support the decision making and (2) how to best inform the decision maker. A general risk-uncertainty framework is presented which provides definitions and interpretations of the key concepts introduced. The framework covers probability theory as well as alternative representations of uncertainty, including interval probability, possibility and evidence theory.

  10. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  11. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  12. Decision making under explicit risk is impaired in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Esther; Tomlinson, Sara E; Purdon, Scot E; Gill, M John; Power, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can affect the frontal-striatal brain regions, which are known to subserve decision-making functions. Previous studies have reported impaired decision making among HIV+ individuals using the Iowa Gambling Task, a task that assesses decision making under ambiguity. Previous study populations often had significant comorbidities such as past or present substance use disorders and/or hepatitis C virus coinfection, complicating conclusions about the unique contributions of HIV-infection to decision making. Decision making under explicit risk has very rarely been examined in HIV+ individuals and was tested here using the Game of Dice Task (GDT). We examined decision making under explicit risk in the GDT in 20 HIV+ individuals without substance use disorder or HCV coinfection, including a demographically matched healthy control group (n = 20). Groups were characterized on a standard neuropsychological test battery. For the HIV+ group, several disease-related parameters (viral load, current and nadir CD4 T-cell count) were included. Analyses focused on the GDT and spanned between-group (t-tests; analysis of covariance, ANCOVA) as well as within-group comparisons (Pearson/Spearman correlations). HIV+ individuals were impaired in the GDT, compared to healthy controls (p = .02). Their decision-making impairments were characterized by less advantageous choices and more random choice strategies, especially towards the end of the task. Deficits in the GDT in the HIV+ group were related to executive dysfunctions, slowed processing/motor speed, and current immune system status (CD4+ T-cell levels, ps Decision making under explicit risk in the GDT can occur in HIV-infected individuals without comorbidities. The correlational patterns may point to underlying fronto-subcortical dysfunctions in HIV+ individuals. The GDT provides a useful measure to assess risky decision making in this population and should be tested in larger studies.

  13. From science to decision-making: taking the risk to communicate on risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroi, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Geoscientists and decision-makers have the same responsibility toward the society: reducing the damaging consequences induced by natural phenomena. They have to work together, geoscientists to improve the knowledge and decision-makers to take the "best" decision, both to design and implement balanced solutions, both to communicate. Feedback shows that if the collaboration between them has already improved, a lot has still to be done, especially in terms of communication; endless litany, geoscientists don't communicate in the right way! In a hyperspecialized technological and segmented society with sophisticated methods of communication, geoscientists don't use appropriate tools and terminology. It's true, and a lot of examples can be shown that highlight this! Risks is based on complex concepts, on notions that are poorly understood, even by scientists themselves, especially the concepts of probability and occurrence of phenomena. But the problem rest as well on the role and on the responsibility of the geoscientists. Risk management experts address geosciences and technology to identify problems and define protection, including prohibitive measures (such as not allowing building in hazardous areas). Policy makers and local planners want to know where to develop territories. On one hand the identification of problems, on the other hand the needs of solutions. Dialectic is not the same. When responsibility, money and image are the three main pillars of decision-making, long-term modeling and uncertainty, are the basic ones for geosciences. In our participative democracies people want to be actor of the development of their own territories; they want more freedom, more protection and less tax. Face to unrealistic political answers geoscientists have to explain and convince. It's not possible to gain on everything and some are going to loose. Shall geoscientists let decision-makers communicate on topics they hardly understand? No. Shall geoscientists communicate on

  14. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    OpenAIRE

    Mkael Symmonds; Julian J Emmanuel; Megan E Drew; Rachel L Batterham; Raymond J Dolan

    2010-01-01

    Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regio...

  15. Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

    2011-06-01

    Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

  16. Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

  17. The Influence of Emotion Regulation on Decision-making under Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura N.; Delgado, Mauricio R.

    2011-01-01

    Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison to trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum), and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse). PMID:21254801

  18. Neural mechanisms regulating different forms of risk-related decision-making: Insights from animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Moorman, David E; Young, Jared W; Setlow, Barry; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-11-01

    Over the past 20 years there has been a growing interest in the neural underpinnings of cost/benefit decision-making. Recent studies with animal models have made considerable advances in our understanding of how different prefrontal, striatal, limbic and monoaminergic circuits interact to promote efficient risk/reward decision-making, and how dysfunction in these circuits underlies aberrant decision-making observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. This review will highlight recent findings from studies exploring these questions using a variety of behavioral assays, as well as molecular, pharmacological, neurophysiological, and translational approaches. We begin with a discussion of how neural systems related to decision subcomponents may interact to generate more complex decisions involving risk and uncertainty. This is followed by an overview of interactions between prefrontal-amygdala-dopamine and habenular circuits in regulating choice between certain and uncertain rewards and how different modes of dopamine transmission may contribute to these processes. These data will be compared with results from other studies investigating the contribution of some of these systems to guiding decision-making related to rewards vs. punishment. Lastly, we provide a brief summary of impairments in risk-related decision-making associated with psychiatric disorders, highlighting recent translational studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The influence of emotion regulation on decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura N; Delgado, Mauricio R

    2011-09-01

    Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison with trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, BOLD responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum) and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse).

  20. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed

    2016-05-01

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi

  1. Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Mavis F.

    2001-01-01

    This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

  2. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception

    OpenAIRE

    Bond Lyndal; Nolan Terry

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding o...

  3. Perceived risks around choice and decision making at end-of-life: a literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, F; Gott, M; Ingleton, C

    2013-01-01

    the World Health Organization identifies meeting patient choice for care as central to effective palliative care delivery. Little is known about how choice, which implies an objective balancing of options and risks, is understood and enacted through decision making at end-of-life. to explore how perceptions of 'risk' may inform decision-making processes at end-of-life. an integrative literature review was conducted between January and February 2010. Papers were reviewed using Hawker et al.'s criteria and evaluated according to clarity of methods, analysis and evidence of ethical consideration. All literature was retained as background data, but given the significant international heterogeneity the final analysis specifically focused on the UK context. the databases Medline, PsycINFO, Assia, British Nursing Index, High Wire Press and CINAHL were explored using the search terms decision*, risk, anxiety, hospice and palliative care, end-of-life care and publication date of 1998-2010. thematic analysis of 25 papers suggests that decision making at end-of-life is multifactorial, involving a balancing of risks related to caregiver support; service provider resources; health inequalities and access; challenges to information giving; and perceptions of self-identity. Overall there is a dissonance in understandings of choice and decision making between service providers and service users. the concept of risk acknowledges the factors that shape and constrain end-of-life choices. Recognition of perceived risks as a central factor in decision making would be of value in acknowledging and supporting meaningful decision making processes for patients with palliative care needs and their families.

  4. The relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetmore, Michael J.

    The purpose of this applied dissertation was to investigate the relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment using a quantitative, non-experimental, ex post facto research design. All 75 of the flight training accidents that involved a fatality from the years 2001-2003 were selected for study from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database. Objective evidence from the Factual Reports was used to construct accident chains and to code and quantify total risk factors and total poor aeronautical decisions. The data were processed using correlational statistical tests at the 1% significance level. There was a statistically significant relationship between total risk factors per flight and poor decisions per flight. Liveware risks were the most prevalent risk factor category. More poor decisions were made during preflight than any other phase of flight. Pilots who made multiple poor decisions per flight had significantly higher risk factors per flight. A risk factor threat to decision making chart is presented for use by flight instructors and/or flight training organizations. The main threat to validity of this study was the NTSB accident investigation team investigative equality assumption.

  5. An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2000-01-01

    The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

  6. [Correlation of resistance to peer pressure and risky decision-making with adolescent health risk behaviors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Jing; Sun, Ying; Wang, Xi; Zu, Ping; Mai, Jin-cheng; Liang, Jian-ping; Xu, Zhi-yong; Man, Xue-jun; Mao, Yan; Tao, Fang-biao

    2013-03-01

    To explore possible interrelationships among resistance to peer pressure, risky decision-making and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. Based on the cluster sampling method, the participants who were recruited from 5 junior middle schools in Guangzhou and 3 junior middle schools in Shenyang city on October, 2010, were administered to complete the questionnaire concerned with their experiences with drinking and smoking during the past 30 days preceding the survey, and the hours using computer daily both in weekdays and in weekend. The level of resistance to peer influence and risky decision-making were assessed by Resistance to peer influence scale (RPIS) and Youth decision-making questionnaire (YDMQ). Logistic regression was used to explore possible interrelationships among resistance to peer influence, risky decision-making and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. A total of 1985 questionnaires were valid, including 1001(50.4%) boys and 984 (49.6%) girls. About 27.1% (537/1985) junior middle school students reported having health risk behaviors, boys' (30.7%, 307/1001) was higher than girls' (23.4%, 230/984) with significant gender difference (P peer influence (low and middle level vs high level, had odds ratios of 2.97 (1.96 - 4.50) and 1.51 (1.05 - 2.16)), and also the middle and high level of risky decision-making (middle and high level vs low level, had odds ratios of 1.62 (1.19 - 2.22) and 3.43 (2.39 - 4.90)) were all the risk factors of adolescent health risk behaviors. Adolescents with poor ability of resistance to peer pressure and high risky decision-making were both the risk factors of adolescent health risk behaviors.

  7. A study on decision-making framework for developing risk-informed technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Beom Seock

    2002-02-01

    The utility and the nuclear research institutes in Korea have conduct research for improving inefficient requirements in technical specifications using the results of probability risk assessments and information associated with risk. However, the guidance for reviewing the improved technical specifications has not been developed. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a decision-making framework for investigating and reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. This work has been done for helping the regulation agency to review the improved technical specifications as well as to make decisions whether the remedy is accepted or not. The contents of this study include: 1. Surveys on Technical Specification regulations in foreign countries as well as those in Korea 2. Surveys on the state- of- the- art methodology for Risk Informed Technical Specifications and their uses in Korea 3. Development of a decision-making framework in both the licensee and the regulation agency position 4. Development and applications of a decision-making framework using Influence Diagrams. The decision-making framework for RITS using Influence Diagrams are developed and applied to an example problem in this study. This work might contribute to developing the risk informed regulation guidance for improving the quality of the current technical specifications

  8. The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2017-01-01

    One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this article, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks.

  9. The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

    2012-01-01

    To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

  10. Risk communication: Translating technically complex information to facilitate informed decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprecher, W.M.; Turner, E.

    1991-01-01

    Based on a review of risk communication and related literature, including policy material, this paper describes the newly revamped risk management program of the DOE's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), and some of the risk-related issues being confronted as the high-level waste management program moves forward. It also describes preliminary activities underway in which the OCRWM is developing strategies for risk communication. The authors offer a definition of risk management as comprised by the components of risk assessment and risk communication. The paper explores the discrepant views that experts and nonexperts have with respect to what constitutes a valid risk assessment model. By illustrating differences in the assessment of risk by experts and lay people, the paper demonstrates how these differences can create challenges in communicating risk and making decisions about risk. Finally, the paper discusses ways in which risk communication could be enhance, and elaborates on the OCRWM's commitment to improve its overall risk management efforts

  11. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

    2004-12-01

    Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the

  12. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  13. A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Susan; Goebel, Kai Frank; Galvan, Jose Ramon

    2012-01-01

    Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

  14. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  15. Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

    2014-07-01

    To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  16. Ergonomics and risk management in high risk organizations: nuclear power plant operator decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de

    2003-08-01

    Nuclear power plants are high hazard environments where emergency situations can have devastating effects. The operator crew has the ultimate responsibility to control the energy production process with safety. The outcome of a crisis is consequently dependent on the crew's judgement, decision making and situation awareness. In such way we should know how operators make their decisions in order to develop safety strategies. The aim of this thesis is to examine the cognitive processes through which operators make decisions when dealing with micro incidents during their actual work, and to determine whether they use a naturalistic or normative decision making strategy. That is, do they try to recognize the micro incident as familiar and base decisions on condition-action rules (naturalistic), or do they need to concurrently compare and contrast options before selecting the best possible (normative). The method employed for data collection was the Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) and Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA). The main findings of this thesis were that decision making is primarily based on naturalistic strategies, such as condition-action rules and recognition. In new situations rules are created ad hoc. These rules appear derived from experience and training rather than from Standard Operating Procedures and contrast normative competence standards used by nuclear industry. (author)

  17. Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

  18. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  19. Proposal for an integrated risk informed decision making process for German regulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Einarsson, Svante; Wielenberg, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory decisions for German nuclear power plants (NPP) have traditionally been based on deterministic safety analyses. However, the IRRS-Mission of IAEA in 2008 proposed, among others, in 'Suggestion 25' to develop a national policy 'on the use of risk insights in the regulatory framework and decision making'. Consequently, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) launched a project with the goal of developing a proposal for a uniform federal approach on using risk information in decision making. To this end, the state of the application of probabilistic and risk informed methods has been investigated both on an international and a national level. On the international level, the concept of Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making (IRIDM) has been defined in INSAG-25. It is a structured process, in which all knowledge and requirements relevant to the issue in question are to be considered in a decision. Such knowledge and other requirements are e.g. deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses, regulatory requirements and other applicable findings (including cost-benefit analyses). The IRIDM concept according to INSAG-25 is the cornerstone of the proposal for a uniform federal German approach for IRIDM in the regulatory framework for nuclear installations in Germany. (orig.)

  20. Decision Making and Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  1. Moral and Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

  2. Managers' implicit and explicit risk-attitudes in managerial decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bittner, Jenny; Landwehr, Julia; Hertel, Guido; Binnewies, Carmen; Krumm, Stefan; Holling, Heinz; Kleinmar, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We examined the contribution of implicit and explicit risk-attitudes to the prediction of risky management decisions. Indirect methods allow for the measurement of implicit attitudes, while self-report is typically used to measure explicit, reflective attitudes. Indirect methods make it

  3. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  4. Balancing risk and reward: a rat model of risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Nicholas W; Gilbert, Ryan J; Mayse, Jeffrey D; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2009-09-01

    We developed a behavioral task in rats to assess the influence of risk of punishment on decision making. Male Long-Evans rats were given choices between pressing a lever to obtain a small, 'safe' food reward and a large food reward associated with risk of punishment (footshock). Each test session consisted of 5 blocks of 10 choice trials, with punishment risk increasing with each consecutive block (0, 25, 50, 75, 100%). Preference for the large, 'risky' reward declined with both increased probability and increased magnitude of punishment, and reward choice was not affected by the level of satiation or the order of risk presentation. Performance in this risky decision-making task was correlated with the degree to which the rats discounted the value of probabilistic rewards, but not delayed rewards. Finally, the acute effects of different doses of amphetamine and cocaine on risky decision making were assessed. Systemic amphetamine administration caused a dose-dependent decrease in choice of the large risky reward (ie, it made rats more risk averse). Cocaine did not cause a shift in reward choice, but instead impaired the rats' sensitivity to changes in punishment risk. These results should prove useful for investigating neuropsychiatric disorders in which risk taking is a prominent feature, such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and addiction.

  5. Importance of risk comparison for individual and societal decision-making after the Fukushima disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2018-01-30

    Risk comparison is essential for effective societal and individual decision-making. After the Fukushima disaster, studies compared radiation and other disaster-related risks to determine the effective prioritizing of measures for response. Evaluating the value of risk comparison information can enable effective risk communication. In this review, the value of risk comparison after the Fukushima disaster for societal and individual decision-making is discussed while clarifying the concept of radiation risk assessment at low doses. The objectives of radiation risk assessment are explained within a regulatory science framework, including the historical adoption of the linear non-threshold theory. An example of risk comparison (i.e. radiation risk versus evacuation-related risk in nursing homes) is used to discuss the prioritization of pre-disaster measures. The effective communication of risk information by authorities is discussed with respect to group-based and face-to-face approaches. Furthermore, future perspectives regarding radiation risk comparisons are discussed. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

  6. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

  7. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-15

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Pandey

    2018-01-01

    A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several ``new paradoxes'' that refuted c...

  9. Decision Making about Risk of Infection by Young Adults with CF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Reynolds

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Young people with cystic fibrosis (CF are asked to avoid a number of environments associated with increased infection risk, but in practice they need to balance this with competing priorities such as building and sustaining relationships with friends and family. This study explored the process by which young people make these decisions. Mixed methods were used: a vignette study presenting choices around engaging in activities involving a degree of infection risk and a thematic analysis of participant's accounts of their decision making. The eight participants chose to engage in high risk behaviours in 59% of the choices. All participants chose to engage in at least one risky behavior, though this was less likely when the risk was significant. Thematic analysis revealed large areas of misunderstanding and lack of knowledge, leading to some potentially worrying misconceptions about the nature of infections and risk. Young people with CF are not currently making informed decisions around activities that involve increased risk of infection, and there is an urgent need for CF teams to address this in information provision.

  10. Risky decision-making under risk in schizophrenia: A deliberate choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Anya; Göder, Robert; Tomczyk, Samuel; Ohrmann, Patricia

    2017-09-01

    Patients with schizophrenia reveal impaired decision-making strategies causing social, financial and health care problems. The extent to which deficits in decision-making reflect intentional risky choices in schizophrenia is still under debate. Based on previous studies we expected patients with schizophrenia to reveal a riskier performance on the GDT and to make more disadvantageous decisions on the IGT. In the present study, we investigated 38 patients with schizophrenia and 38 matched healthy control subjects with two competing paradigms regarding feedback: (1) The Game of Dice Task (GDT), in which the probabilities of winning or losing are stable and explicitly disclosed to the subject, to assess decision-making under risk and (2) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which requires subjects to infer the probabilities of winning or losing from feedback, to investigate decision-making under ambiguity. Patients with schizophrenia revealed an overall riskier performance on the GDT; although they adjusted their strategy over the course of the GDT, they still made significantly more disadvantageous choices than controls. More positive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia indicated by higher PANSS positive scores were associated with riskier choices and less use of negative feedback. Compared to healthy controls, they were not impaired in net score but chose more disadvantageous cards than controls on the first block of the IGT. Effects of medication at the time of testing cannot be ruled out. Our findings suggest that patients with schizophrenia make riskier decisions and are less able to regulate their decision-making to implement advantageous strategies, even when the probabilities of winning or losing are explicitly disclosed. The dissociation between performance on the GDT and IGT suggests a pronounced impairment of executive functions related to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Development and aging of decision-making rationality under risk framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-hui LIU

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Humans often display irrational choice and decision-making due to the frame effect. However, it is unclear whether this irrational choice and decision-making will increase during the aging process. Methods The present research explored development and aging of risky-seeking and rational decision-making with 232 younger adults and 120 older adults. The experiment was a 2 (Age:younger adult and old adult × 2 (Frame: positive and negative × 2 (Relevance: lower level and higher level, with the risky probability as a control variable and the decision-making scores as dependent variables. Results The results revealed that older adults demonstrated much more irrational decision-making (framing effect. In the detail, the risky decision-making score of the older adults in the positive framing was 5.13 ± 2.12, and 6.55 ± 1.05 in the negative framing [F (1, 118 = 21.470, P = 0.000; η2 = 0.156], while the risky decision-making score of the younger adults in the positive framing was 3.18 ± 2.49, and 5.00 ± 2.41 in the negative framing [F (1, 230 = 31.260, P = 0.000; η 2 = 0.121]. Meanwhile, the older adults showed risk seeking for the life-death scenario [F (1, 350 = 4.820, P = 0.029]. Conclusions These results suggested that the hypofunction in orbital and medial prefrontal cortex and amygdale in older adults might be the underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, the susceptibility to expected value (EV of the older adults might decrease although their scores in risky probability understanding were not significantly different from the younger adults. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2014.03.008

  12. Decision making support of the management of technogenically contaminated territories basing on risk analysis with use of geographic information technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Overall questions of decision making support of the contaminated territories management on a basis of risk assessment were considered. Characteristics and possibilities of the applied geoinformation system of decision making support PRANA developed for the risk control and rehabilitation of contaminated territories are demonstrated. The PRANA system involves estimations of all fundamental characteristics of risk during analysis of results and contaminated territories management [ru

  13. Risk perception, trust and public engagement in nuclear decision-making in Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mah, Daphne Ngar-yin; Hills, Peter; Tao, Julia

    2014-01-01

    The extent to which nuclear energy can be a feasible energy option has re-emerged as a subject of widespread debate following the Fukushima accident in Japan. However, relatively little is known about how public inputs can improve nuclear decision-making. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of public opinions regarding nuclear energy by examining its risk perception, trust and public engagement dimensions. Based on a survey of Hong Kong residents (n=509), we make some observations. Firstly, we offer empirical evidence that affirms the theoretical connections between risk perception, trust, and public engagement in the context of nuclear energy. Secondly, our logistic regression analysis indicates that demographics, trust, and perceptions of the efficacy of public engagement are factors explaining perceptions of greater risks and nuclear opposition. Thirdly, our conceptual model sheds light on the complexity of the trust concept, and specifies aspects of trust that are influential in the contexts of risk perception and nuclear choices. Our findings suggest that the Hong Kong government must ensure trust building receives prominent attention in nuclear decision-making, and that it should avoid excessive reliance on the business sector and should assume a key role for itself in enhancing trust in nuclear decision-making. - Highlights: • Risk perception, trust and public engagement matter to nuclear decision-making. • Our logistic regression analysis found that demographics, trust and perception of public engagement are the factors that explain risk perception and nuclear choice in Hong Kong. • Our conceptual model specifics aspects of trust that are influential

  14. Decision making under risk in the case of nuclear power system development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavelescu, M.; Szakats, A.; Ursu, I.

    1981-01-01

    The theory of risk preference as applied to decision making in the case of a nuclear power system consisting of PHWRs and PWRs integrated with LMFBRs, is examined. An econometric model of the system offers the cost price of annual energy generated by the system at the end of a given time interval for every possible state of any of nine development alternatives. Optimal development alternatives of the nuclear system in three cases: risk-preference, risk-indifference and risk-aversion are obtained and the solution in the last case is discussed in detail. (U.K.)

  15. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, E.B. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)], E-mail: eirik.abrahamsen@uis.no; Aven, T. [University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger (Norway)

    2008-12-15

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory.

  16. On the consistency of risk acceptance criteria with normative theories for decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamsen, E.B.; Aven, T.

    2008-01-01

    In evaluation of safety in projects it is common to use risk acceptance criteria to support decision-making. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the risk acceptance criteria is in accordance with the normative theoretical framework of the expected utility theory and the rank-dependent utility theory. We show that the use of risk acceptance criteria may violate the independence axiom of the expected utility theory and the comonotonic independence axiom of the rank-dependent utility theory. Hence the use of risk acceptance criteria is not in general consistent with these theories. The level of inconsistency is highest for the expected utility theory

  17. Modulation of risk/reward decision making by dopaminergic transmission within the basolateral amygdala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Joshua D; Jenni, Nicole L; Floresco, Stan B

    2016-01-01

    Dopamine (DA) transmission within cortico-limbic-striatal circuitry is integral in modulating decisions involving reward uncertainty. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) also plays a role in these processes, yet how DA transmission within this nucleus regulates cost/benefit decision making is unknown. We investigated the contribution of DA transmission within the BLA to risk/reward decision making assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. Rats were well-trained to choose between a small/certain reward and a large/risky reward, with the probability of obtaining the larger reward decreasing (100-12.5 %) or increasing (12.5-100 %) over a session. We examined the effects of antagonizing BLA D1 (SCH 23390, 0.1-1 μg) or D2 (eticlopride, 0.1-1 μg) receptors, as well as intra-BLA infusions of agonists for D1 (SKF 81297, 0.1-1 μg) and D2 (quinpirole, 1-10 μg) receptors. We also assessed how DA receptor stimulation may induce differential effects related to baseline levels of risky choice. BLA D1 receptor antagonism reduced risky choice by decreasing reward sensitivity, whereas D2 antagonism did not affect overall choice patterns. Stimulation of BLA D1 receptors optimized decision making in a baseline-dependent manner: in risk-averse rats, infusions of a lower dose of SKF81297 increased risky choice when reward probabilities were high (50 %), whereas in risk-prone rats, this drug reduced risky choice when probabilities were low (12.5 %). Quinpirole reduced risky choice in risk-prone rats, enhancing lose-shift behavior. These data highlight previously uncharacterized roles for BLA DA D1 and D2 receptors in biasing choice during risk/reward decision making through mediation of reward/negative feedback sensitivity.

  18. Decision-making under risk and ambiguity in low-birth-weight pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Eimear; Kraak, Lynn; van den Broek, Jan; Nordquist, Rebecca E; van der Staay, Franz Josef

    2015-03-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) in humans is a risk factor for later cognitive, behavioural and emotional problems. In pigs, LBW is associated with higher mortality, but little is known about consequences for surviving piglets. Alteration in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function in LBW pigs suggests altered emotionality, but no behavioural indicators have been studied. Decision-making under uncertain conditions, e.g., risk or ambiguity, is susceptible to emotional influences and may provide a means of assessing long-term effects of LBW in piglets. We tested LBW (N = 8) and normal-birth-weight (NBW; N = 8) male pigs in two decision-making tasks. For decision-making under risk, we developed a simple two-choice probabilistic task, the Pig Gambling Task (PGT), where an 'advantageous' option offered small but frequent rewards and a 'disadvantageous' option offered large but infrequent rewards. The advantageous option offered greater overall gain. For decision-making under ambiguity, we used a Judgement Bias Task (JBT) where pigs were trained to make an active response to 'positive' and 'negative' tone cues (signalling large and small rewards, respectively). Responses to ambiguous tone cues were rated as more or less optimistic. LBW pigs chose the advantageous option more often in later blocks of the PGT, and were scored as less optimistic in the JBT, than NBW pigs. Our findings demonstrate that LBW pigs have developed different behavioural strategies with respect to decision-making. We propose that this is guided by changes in emotionality in LBW piglets, and we provide behavioural evidence of increased negative affect in LBW piglets.

  19. Impediments for the application of risk-informed decision making in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahn, L.

    2001-01-01

    A broad application of risk-informed decision making in the regulation of safety of nuclear power plants is hindered by the lack of quantitative risk and safety standards as well as of precise instruments to demonstrate an appropriate safety. An additional severe problem is associated with the difficulty to harmonize deterministic design requirements and probabilistic safety assessment. The problem is strengthened by the vulnerability of PSA for subjective influences and the potential of misuse. Beside this scepticism the nuclear community is encouraged to intensify the efforts to improve the quality standards for probabilistic safety assessments and their quality assurance. A prerequisite for reliable risk-informed decision making processes is also a well-defined and transparent relationship between deterministic and probabilistic safety approaches. (author)

  20. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1999-12-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not beenall that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed

  1. The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    As a physicist, I prefer the R = P x C, with the inclusion of a risk magnifier when appropriate. However, I also accept this is inadequate. For risk-based decisions to be acceptable in a democratic society, there must be widespread agreement on the criteria to be used, the process by which the decision is reached, and the linkage between the criteria and the decision. These demand a transparent process. Armour wrote: 'To date, efforts directed toward facility siting conflicts have focused almost exclusively on the 'public acceptance' factor (and neglected the legitimacy of the process] - the sad reality is that these strategies have not been all that effective. Moreover, given that the underlying motivation is to 'gain public acceptance' such strategies have often worsened the facility siting problems when used by proponents who were unable, in appearance or in fact, to tread the fine line between manipulating public opinion and liberating it ... the issue of the legitimacy of the decision making process had tended to be taken for granted. Generally speaking, policy makers have failed to seriously question and have not responded well to others who have dared to question the established roles and principles of our conventional processes of decision making.' Finally, acceptance also requires agreement that the issues to be decided are the appropriate issues. Often the decision-makers concentrate on issues that are not the ones the public views as the most important. Sometimes it is because the public wants other alternatives examined. Sometimes it is because the public does not accept the necessity to decide now. And sometimes it is because the public does not trust those who have assumed responsibility for making the decision. The analytic community has grown in size and skill over the last 20 years. The science community has produced a better understanding of health effects and exposure pathways. The engineering community has designed safer systems. However, the

  2. The angular gyrus and visuospatial attention in decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Bettina; Cen, Danlu; Walsh, Vincent

    2014-12-01

    Recent neuroimaging studies on decision-making under risk indicate that the angular gyrus (AG) is sensitive to the probability and variance of outcomes during choice. A separate body of research has established the AG as a key area in visual attention. The current study used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in healthy volunteers to test whether the causal contribution of the AG to decision-making is independent of or linked to the guidance of visuospatial attention. A within-subject design compared decision making on a laboratory gambling task under three conditions: following rTMS to the AG, following rTMS to the premotor cortex (PMC, as an active control condition) and without TMS. The task presented two different trial types, 'visual' and 'auditory' trials, which entailed a high versus minimal demand for visuospatial attention, respectively. Our results showed a systematic effect of rTMS to the AG upon decision-making behavior in visual trials. Without TMS and following rTMS to the control region, decision latencies reflected the odds of winning; this relationship was disrupted by rTMS to the AG. In contrast, no significant effects of rTMS to the AG (or to the PMC) upon choice behavior in auditory trials were found. Thus, rTMS to the AG affected decision-making only in the task condition requiring visuospatial attention. The current findings suggest that the AG contributes to decision-making by guiding attention to relevant information about reward and punishment in the visual environment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  4. Risk and Rationality in Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Theory, Practice, and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Farley, Frank

    2006-09-01

    Crime, smoking, drug use, alcoholism, reckless driving, and many other unhealthy patterns of behavior that play out over a lifetime often debut during adolescence. Avoiding risks or buying time can set a different lifetime pattern. Changing unhealthy behaviors in adolescence would have a broad impact on society, reducing the burdens of disease, injury, human suffering, and associated economic costs. Any program designed to prevent or change such risky behaviors should be founded on a clear idea of what is normative (what behaviors, ideally, should the program foster?), descriptive (how are adolescents making decisions in the absence of the program?), and prescriptive (which practices can realistically move adolescent decisions closer to the normative ideal?). Normatively, decision processes should be evaluated for coherence (is the thinking process nonsensical, illogical, or self-contradictory?) and correspondence (are the outcomes of the decisions positive?). Behaviors that promote positive physical and mental health outcomes in modern society can be at odds with those selected for by evolution (e.g., early procreation). Healthy behaviors may also conflict with a decision maker's goals. Adolescents' goals are more likely to maximize immediate pleasure, and strict decision analysis implies that many kinds of unhealthy behavior, such as drinking and drug use, could be deemed rational. However, based on data showing developmental changes in goals, it is important for policy to promote positive long-term outcomes rather than adolescents' short-term goals. Developmental data also suggest that greater risk aversion is generally adaptive, and that decision processes that support this aversion are more advanced than those that support risk taking. A key question is whether adolescents are developmentally competent to make decisions about risks. In principle, barring temptations with high rewards and individual differences that reduce self-control (i.e., under ideal

  5. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  6. Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically. PMID:29444107

  7. Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonavia, Tomas; Brox-Ponce, Josué

    2018-01-01

    The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

  8. Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Bonavia

    Full Text Available The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

  9. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT......-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. Results: As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being...... correlated. Conclusions: Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively....

  10. Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

    2013-12-01

    Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

  11. Emotions in Risk Assessment and Decision Making Processes During Craft Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Groth

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally subjective experiences and emotions have been overlooked in the practice of scientific research. In the field of design and craft research too, feelings and emotions have been considered as interfering with the rigour of research. However, as a result of findings in neuroscience, a new understanding has emerged, providing emotions a central role in risk assessment and decision making processes. This has implications also for how we understand craft practice. In this practice-led research, a craft practitioner analysed five video-recordings of herself while throwing clay blindfolded. The researcher-practitioner specifically studied critical incidents in the throwing process and made a detailed analysis of how sensory experiences and emotions guided her in risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving during the clay-throwing sessions. She found that her tactile experience gave her important clues on the condition of the material and its consequent possibilities at different stages. These experiences in turn affected her emotions in either positive or negative ways, affecting her risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving activities. This research has shown that sensory experiences and emotions influence the craft making process and are thus important elements in the expertise of the craftsperson. The role of such emotions remains to be studied further in the expertise of researchers in general.

  12. Executive function, approach sensitivity, and emotional decision making as influences on risk behaviors in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Megan E; Blair, Clancy; Maggs, Jennifer L

    2008-05-01

    Relations among executive function, behavioral approach sensitivity, emotional decision making, and risk behaviors (alcohol use, drug use, and delinquent behavior) were examined in single female college students (N = 72). Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated a significant Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction in which higher levels of alcohol use were associated with the combination of greater approach tendency and better working memory. This Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction was also marginally significant for drug use and delinquency. Poor emotional decision making, as measured by a gambling task, was also associated with higher levels of alcohol use, but only for individuals low in inhibitory control. Findings point to the complexity of relations among aspects of self-regulation and personality and provide much needed data on neuropsychological correlates of risk behaviors in a nonclinical population.

  13. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...

  14. Decision making for breast cancer prevention among women at elevated risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padamsee, Tasleem J; Wills, Celia E; Yee, Lisa D; Paskett, Electra D

    2017-03-24

    Several medical management approaches have been shown to be effective in preventing breast cancer and detecting it early among women at elevated risk: 1) prophylactic mastectomy; 2) prophylactic oophorectomy; 3) chemoprevention; and 4) enhanced screening routines. To varying extents, however, these approaches are substantially underused relative to clinical practice recommendations. This article reviews the existing research on the uptake of these prevention approaches, the characteristics of women who are likely to use various methods, and the decision-making processes that underlie the differing choices of women. It also highlights important areas for future research, detailing the types of studies that are particularly needed in four key areas: documenting women's perspectives on their own perceptions of risk and prevention decisions; explicit comparisons of available prevention pathways and their likely health effects; the psychological, interpersonal, and social processes of prevention decision making; and the dynamics of subgroup variation. Ultimately, this research could support the development of interventions that more fully empower women to make informed and values-consistent decisions, and to move towards favorable health outcomes.

  15. Health risk from radioactive and chemical environmental contamination: common basis for assessment and safety decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.

    2004-01-01

    To meet the growing practical need in risk analysis in Russia health risk assessment tools and regulations have been developed in the frame of few federal research programs. RRC Kurchatov Institute is involved in R and D on risk analysis activity in these programs. One of the objectives of this development is to produce a common, unified basis of health risk analysis for different sources of risk. Current specific and different approaches in risk assessment and establishing safety standards developed for chemicals and ionising radiation are analysed. Some recommendations are given to produce the common approach. A specific risk index R has been proposed for safety decision-making (establishing safety standards and other levels of protective actions, comparison of various sources of risk, etc.). The index R is defined as the partial mathematical expectation of lost years of healthy life (LLE) due to exposure during a year to a risk source considered. The more concrete determinations of this index for different risk sources derived from the common definition of R are given. Generic safety standards (GSS) for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index. Secondary specific safety standards have been derived from GSS for ionizing radiation and a number of other risk sources including environmental chemical pollutants. Other general and derived levels for decision-making have also been proposed including the e-minimum level. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data is shortly considered. Recommendations are given on methods and criteria for comparison of various sources of risk. Some examples of risk comparison are demonstrated in the frame of different comparison tasks. The paper has been prepared on the basis of the research work supported by International Science and Technology Centre, Moscow (project no. 2558). (author)

  16. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Rozental, J.J.; Tranjan Filho, A.

    2001-01-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of 137 CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10 3 m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10 3 m 3 of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10 5 m 2 . The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The problem of a fixed, or near

  17. Decision-Making Risks Concerning the Construction of the Goiania Waste Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschoa, A.S. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Rozental, J.J. [Ministry of Environment (Israel); Tranjan Filho, A. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN) (Brazil)

    2001-07-01

    As it is well known, an accident with a teletherapy source made of {sup 137}CsCl with an initial activity of 59 TBq occurred in Goiania, in September of 1987. This paper will discuss the decision-making process, and the struggle that followed the decision to build the final repository for the remnants of the Goiania accident. The Goiania final repository was built as planned. The two subsurface structures under the grassy artificial hills hold the overall volume of the remnants of the Goiania accident. The near hill holds 5x10{sup 3} m3 of stabilized wastes without radioactivity, or with very low radioactivity. The far hill holds the remaining 6.5x10{sup 3} m{sup 3} of stabilized wastes with low and medium radioactivity. The central part of each subsurface hill has been shielded by wastes with less and less radioactivity. The overall fenced area occupies 1.85x10{sup 5} m{sup 2}. The external radiation levels are similar to the surrounding background, and much lower than those found in the Brazilian areas of high natural radioactivity. The site is permanently monitored by independent institutions, including Brazilian universities, and national and international organizations. As it was mentioned earlier, the final repository was build to last for at least 400 years. Although the initial decision to adopt a too conservative decontamination criterion in the case of the Goiania accident was bound to produce excessive amount of waste; such decision proved, retrospectively, not to be bad because the excess low radioactive waste produced was used as extra shielding material in final repository. The technical decision-maker should not abandon risk estimates, but should be aware that credibility is the main basis to achieve acceptability of a decision by the general public. Risk perception should be regarded as only a first step towards what may be called knowledge, or comprehension of risk estimates, but risk perception by the general public is still an open issue. The

  18. Assessment of Level of Risk in Decision-Making in Terms of Career Exploitation

    OpenAIRE

    Semenov, Aleksandr Sergeevich; Kuznetcov, Vladimir Sergeevich

    2015-01-01

    When designing career plots the raw data are stochastic in nature. From the results of the determination of these initial data depends not only the final result of the design or evaluation, but also the feasibility of the development of the field. While there are significant errors associated with the probabilistic nature of the source data and measurement errors and errors of calculations. Risk assessment is an integral part of project documentation. The project decision-making occurs under ...

  19. Risky Decision Making in a Laboratory Driving Task Is Associated with Health Risk Behaviors during Late Adolescence but Not Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Kahn, Rachel; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Chiu, Pearl; Steinberg, Laurence; King-Casas, Brooks

    2016-01-01

    Adolescence is characterized by increasing incidence of health risk behaviors, including experimentation with drugs and alcohol. To fill the gap in our understanding of the associations between risky decision-making and health risk behaviors, we investigated associations between laboratory-based risky decision-making using the Stoplight task and…

  20. Disclosure and rationality: comparative risk information and decision-making about prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Peter H

    2009-01-01

    With the growing focus on prevention in medicine, studies of how to describe risk have become increasing important. Recently, some researchers have argued against giving patients "comparative risk information," such as data about whether their baseline risk of developing a particular disease is above or below average. The concern is that giving patients this information will interfere with their consideration of more relevant data, such as the specific chance of getting the disease (the "personal risk"), the risk reduction the treatment provides, and any possible side effects. I explore this view and the theories of rationality that ground it, and I argue instead that comparative risk information can play a positive role in decision-making. The criticism of disclosing this sort of information to patients, I conclude, rests on a mistakenly narrow account of the goals of prevention and the nature of rational choice in medicine.

  1. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age - A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors - responsible for age-related differences in decision making - are additionally pointed out.

  2. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Liebherr

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out.

  3. Decision Making under Ambiguity and Objective Risk in Higher Age – A Review on Cognitive and Emotional Contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebherr, Magnus; Schiebener, Johannes; Averbeck, Heike; Brand, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    The ability of decision making plays a highly relevant role in our survival, but is adversely affected during the process of aging. The present review aims to provide a better understanding of age-related differences in decision making and the role of cognitive and emotional factors in this context. We reviewed the literature about age-effects on decision-making performance, focusing on decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In decisions under ambiguous risks, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, decisions are based on the experiences with consequences. In this case, many articles have attributed age-related impairments in decision making to changes in emotional and somatic reward- and punishment processing. In decisions under objective risks, as measured for example by the Game of Dice Task, decisions can be based on explicit information about risks and consequences. In this case, age-related changes have been attributed mainly to a cognitive decline, particularly impaired executive functions. However, recent findings challenge these conclusions. The present review summarizes neuropsychological and neurophysiological findings of age-related differences in decision making under ambiguous and objective risk. In this context, the relevance of learning, but also of cognitive and emotional contributors – responsible for age-related differences in decision making – are additionally pointed out. PMID:29270145

  4. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mansour, Fouad; Kozuh, Mitja

    2007-01-01

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  5. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  6. Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

  7. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  8. [Evidence-based Risk and Benefit Communication for Shared Decision Making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Takeo

    2018-01-01

     Evidence-based medicine (EBM) can be defined as "the integration of the best research evidence with clinical expertise and a patient's unique values and circumstances". However, even with the best research evidence, many uncertainties can make clinical decisions difficult. As the social requirement of respecting patient values and preferences has been increasingly recognized, shared decision making (SDM) and consensus development between patients and clinicians have attracted attention. SDM is a process by which patients and clinicians make decisions and arrive at a consensus through interactive conversations and communications. During the process of SDM, patients and clinicians share information with each other on the goals they hope to achieve and responsibilities in meeting those goals. From the clinician's standpoint, information regarding the benefits and risks of potential treatment options based on current evidence and professional experience is provided to patients. From the patient's standpoint, information on personal values, preferences, and social roles is provided to clinicians. SDM is a sort of "wisdom" in the context of making autonomous decisions in uncertain, difficult situations through interactions and cooperation between patients and clinicians. Joint development of EBM and SDM will help facilitate patient-clinician relationships and improve the quality of healthcare.

  9. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

    2017-01-01

    Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  10. Emotion regulation and risk taking: predicting risky choice in deliberative decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panno, Angelo; Lauriola, Marco; Figner, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    Only very recently has research demonstrated that experimentally induced emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression) affect risky choice (e.g., Heilman et al., 2010). However, it is unknown whether this effect also operates via habitual use of emotion regulation strategies in risky choice involving deliberative decision making. We investigated the role of habitual use of emotion regulation strategies in risky choice using the "cold" deliberative version of the Columbia Card Task (CCT; Figner et al., 2009). Fifty-three participants completed the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ; Gross & John, 2003) and--one month later--the CCT and the PANAS. Greater habitual cognitive reappraisal use was related to increased risk taking, accompanied by decreased sensitivity to changes in probability and loss amount. Greater habitual expressive suppression use was related to decreased risk taking. The results show that habitual use of reappraisal and suppression strategies predict risk taking when decisions involve predominantly cognitive-deliberative processes.

  11. Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key problems in the field of decision-making have been considered. The authors' aim was to indicate the extremely important for management role of logic and risk in relation to decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. In the course of the research, the following hypothesis was tested: the complexity of risk is determined by the diversity of reality. The result of this is that in science there is no current study developing a uniform methodology for the assessment of risk. It might even be doubtful whether it can be created. In a certain sense, this is indicated in the article by the discussion about the dimensions of logic and risk apparent in any decisions taken by a man. The paper presents the complexity and diversity of risk assessment on the basis of selected, but essential to the discussed issue, fields of knowledge. This is valid when the numerical or qualitative level of risk is substantial in the context of the analyzed problem. (original abstract

  12. Policy issues arising from the judgmental nature of risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcquaid, J.

    1998-01-01

    The regulation of risks is pervaded by the need to exercise judgement. The scientific basis for characterising risk problems and judging the effectiveness of possible controls is often uncertain, lacking information and understanding of the processes involved. However, the risk management measures adopted will not be determined by science alone, but must reflect sociological, economic, ethical and political considerations. These in turn are in themselves judgmental, informed to a greater or lesser extent by empirical evidence and influenced by the prevailing climate of public opinion. The overall process provides a rich source of confusion for the public as to the status of the eventual policy decision, with important implications for the manner in which the process of communication is managed. The important role of judgement, as distinct from formal analysis, at every stage needs to be reflected in risk communication. The engagement of those who bear the risks, and of other interested parties in the exercise of judgement must be tailored to nature of the judgement and to the decision to be made. Appropriate procedures need to be adopted to enable that engagement. Although the issue has come into particular prominence in recent years, it is not a new phenomenon. The presentation will describe the arrangements that have been developed in the UK over the past 25 years, and will be illustrated by some specific examples of risk decision making on issues of high public concern. (author)

  13. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  14. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  15. Risk Taking and Decision Making in Kidney Paired Donation: A Qualitative Study by Semistructured Interviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baines, L S; Dulku, H; Jindal, R M; Papalois, V

    2018-06-01

    Despite excellent outcomes of kidney paired donation (KPD), little is known about how a patient's frame (apply cognitive bias) or weight (attribute value) and concerns relating to risk, justice, and equity affect his or her decision-making process. A pilot study consisting of 3 KPD transplant recipients and 3 KPD kidney donors in the last year was conducted to identify and explore themes in decision making and risk taking. The pilot study was followed by the main study comprised of 20 recipients who had already undergone KPD transplantation and 20 donors who had undergone donor nephrectomy. We conducted semistructured interviews in this cohort and analyzed the data thematically. Each donor-recipient pair was interviewed together to facilitate dyadic conversation and provide deeper insight into the decision-making process leading to transplant and donation. Common themes to both recipient and donor decision making included quality of life; characteristics of the unknown donor and post-transplant expectations. Recipient-specific themes included failure to reach life span milestones, experiences of fellow patients, and altruistic desire to expand the donor pool. Donor-specific themes included balancing existing life commitments with the recipient's need for a kidney, equity and mental accounting in kidney exchange (comparable quality of the kidney received versus the kidney donated), and logistical justice for the recipient. Donors and recipients frame and weight the concepts of risk, justice, and equity differently. This may have direct implications to facilitating patient-centered communication and engagement in KPD pairs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Differentiating the influence of incidental anger and fear on risk decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiwei; Zhao, Ding; Wu, Yan; Tang, Ping; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2018-02-01

    Previous research has revealed that incidental emotions of different valence (positive/negative/neutral) produce distinct impacts on risk decision-making. This study went on to compare the effects of different emotions of which the valence are identical. We focused on anger and fear, both of which are negative emotions but differ in motivational and appraisal dimensions. Participants finished a forced-choice gambling task, during which incidental emotions (anger/fear/happy) were elicited by facial stimuli selected from the Chinese Facial Affective Picture System. Behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were recorded in the experiment, which showed that anger and fear were different in their influence on behavioral risk preference and the relationship between outcome processing and subsequent risk decisions. Regarding the behavioral results, risk preference in the anger condition was higher than the fear condition, but lower than the happy condition. Regarding the ERP results elicited by outcome feedback (gain/loss), in the fear condition, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) was positively correlated with risk preference; in the anger condition, the gain-related P3 component was positively correlated with risk preference; in the happy condition, both the FRN and the loss-related P3 was negatively correlated with risk preference. The current findings provide novel insight into distinguishing the effect of different incidental emotions on risk preference. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk-based decision-making: A reality at the INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halford, V.E.; Nitschke, R.L.; Hula, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    Risk Analysis and Risk Management are major components of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's (INEL's) environmental restoration and waste management program. These tools help define responsible and cost-effective approaches to address potential human health and environmental risks from past operational practices. These techniques along with stake holder involvement, play a key role in the decision-making process which involves the US Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE), the US Environmental Protection Agency Region 10 (EPA), and the State of Idaho Department of Health and Welfare (IDHW), hereafter referred to as the agencies. An example of how this process works is Pad A, an above-ground mixed waste disposal site composed mainly of transuranic-contaminated evaporation pond salts. The site was constructed in 1972 for the disposal of solid radioactive wastes. A Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) baseline risk assessment was conducted to determine the incremental cancer risk and potential for adverse health effects to the public and the impacts to the environment if no action was performed. The risk characterization indicated that the carcinogenic risk for current and future hypothetical scenarios was below or within the NCP acceptable risk range. There was a potential 10 year window for an adverse health effect to an infant from nitrate contamination of the groundwater in about 250 years. Based on these results, a responsible and sound decision was reached to maintain and recontour the existing soil cover and to perform monitoring to confirm modeling assumptions

  18. The hole picture: risks, decision making, purpose, regulations, and the future of body piercing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Myrna L; Koch, Jerome R; Saunders, Jana C; Roberts, Alden E; Owen, Donna C

    2007-01-01

    Can it be said that body piercing is ubiquitous, found across all socioeconomic groups? The major concentration is among adolescents and young adults 15 to 30 years old, in some studies, 50% of the population. Commonly identified physical risks are bleeding, tissue trauma, and bacterial infections; psychosocial risks are unhappiness, low self-esteem, and disappointment. The Health Belief Model is used to explain decision making; purposes for body piercing consistently center on personal expression (self-identity) and uniqueness. The international and US body piercing regulations are discussed, leading to the need for tracking complications globally and standardization of regulations. Proactive health education for clients and health providers remains a priority.

  19. Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan eZhang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

  20. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  1. Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

    2013-01-01

    We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

  2. Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

  3. Under pressure: response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Catherine L; Minati, Ludovico; Harrison, Neil A; Ward, Jamie; Critchley, Hugo D

    2011-01-01

    When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency.

  4. Under pressure: response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine L Jones

    Full Text Available When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles, a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency.

  5. Risk perception and strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate the wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system

  6. Decision-Making Under Risk, but Not Under Ambiguity, Predicts Pathological Gambling in Discrete Types of Abstinent Substance Users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Michael J; Vassileva, Jasmin

    2018-01-01

    This study explored how different forms of reward-based decision-making are associated with pathological gambling (PG) among abstinent individuals with prior dependence on different classes of drugs. Participants had lifetime histories of either "pure" heroin dependence ( n = 64), "pure" amphetamine dependence ( n = 51), or polysubstance dependence ( n = 89), or had no history of substance dependence ( n = 133). Decision-making was assessed via two neurocognitive tasks: (1) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a measure of decision-making under ambiguity (i.e., uncertain risk contingencies); and (2) the Cambridge Gambling task (CGT), a measure of decision-making under risk (i.e., explicit risk contingencies). The main effects of neurocognitive performance and drug class on PG (defined as ≥3 DSM-IV PG symptoms) as well as their interactional effects were assessed via multiple linear regression. Two CGT indices of decision-making under risk demonstrated positive main effects on PG. Interaction effects indicated that the effects of decision-making under risk on PG were largely consistent across participant groups. Notably, a linear relationship between greater CGT Risk-Taking and PG symptoms was not observed among amphetamine users, whereas IGT performance was selectively and positively associated with PG in polysubstance users. Overall, results indicate that reward-based decision-making under risk may represent a risk factor for PG across substance users, with some variations in these relationships influenced by specific class of substance of abuse.

  7. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tungju Wu; Yenchun Jim Wu; Hsientang Tsai; Yibin Li

    2017-01-01

    Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT) of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires o...

  8. Rational Risk-Benefit Decision-Making in the Setting of Military Mefloquine Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevin, Remington L

    2015-01-01

    Mefloquine is an antimalarial drug that has been commonly used in military settings since its development by the US military in the late 1980s. Owing to the drug's neuropsychiatric contraindications and its high rate of inducing neuropsychiatric symptoms, which are contraindications to the drug's continued use, the routine prescribing of mefloquine in military settings may be problematic. Due to these considerations and to recent concerns of chronic and potentially permanent psychiatric and neurological sequelae arising from drug toxicity, military prescribing of mefloquine has recently decreased. In settings where mefloquine remains available, policies governing prescribing should reflect risk-benefit decision-making informed by the drug's perceived benefits and by consideration both of the risks identified in the drug's labeling and of specific military risks associated with its use. In this review, these risks are identified and recommendations are made for the rational prescribing of the drug in light of current evidence.

  9. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality among community-dwelling older persons without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2013-01-01

    Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD = 2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean = 1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.07-1.32, p = 0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score = 3, 10th percentile) was about 4 times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score = 11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Software Package (1997 Version) User Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, F.T.H.

    1999-02-11

    This manual provides instructions for using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) risk analysis and decision making software (1997 version) developed at BDM Petroleum Technologies by BDM-Oklahoma, Inc. for DOE, under contract No. DE-AC22-94PC91OO8. This software provides petroleum producers with a simple, handy tool for exploration and production risk analysis and decision-making. It collects useful risk analysis tools in one package so that users do not have to use several programs separately. The software is simple to use, but still provides many functions. The 1997 version of the software package includes the following tools: (1) Investment risk (Gambler's ruin) analysis; (2) Monte Carlo simulation; (3) Best fit for distribution functions; (4) Sample and rank correlation; (5) Enhanced oil recovery method screening; and (6) artificial neural network. This software package is subject to change. Suggestions and comments from users are welcome and will be considered for future modifications and enhancements of the software. Please check the opening screen of the software for the current contact information. In the future, more tools will be added to this software package. This manual includes instructions on how to use the software but does not attempt to fully explain the theory and algorithms used to create it.

  11. A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X T; Johnson, Joseph G

    2012-11-01

    The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x ≥ G), gain (SQ G > SQ. We present TRP assumptions and value functions and a mathematical formalization of the theory. We conducted empirical tests of crucial TRP predictions using both explicit and implicit reference points. We show that decision makers consider both G and MR and give greater weight to MR than G, indicating failure aversion (i.e., the disutility of a failure is greater than the utility of a success in the same task) in addition to loss aversion (i.e., the disutility of a loss is greater than the utility of the same amount of gain). Captured by a double-S shaped value function with 3 inflection points, risk preferences switched between risk seeking and risk aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddled a different reference point. The existence of MR (not G) significantly shifted choice preference toward risk aversion even when the outcome distribution of a gamble was well above the MR. Single reference point based models such as prospect theory cannot consistently account for these findings. The TRP theory provides simple guidelines for evaluating risky choices for individuals and organizational management. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Decision making in neonatologia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  13. Risks identification and ranking using AHP and group decision making technique: Presenting “R index”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safar Fazli

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary concerns in project development is to detect all sorts of risks associated with a particular project. The main objective of this article is to identify the risks in the construction project and to grade them based on their importance on the project. The designed indicator in this paper is the combinational model of the Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP method and the group decisionmaking applied for risks measurement and ranking. This indicator is called "R" which includes three main steps: creating the risks broken structure (RBS, obtaining each risk weight and efficacy, and finally performing the model to rank the risks. A questionnaire is used for gathering data. Based on the results of this survey, there are important risks associated with construction projects. There we need to use some guidelines to reduce the inherent risks including recognition of the common risks beside the political risks; suggestion of a simple, understandable, and practical model; and using plenty of the experts and specialists' opinions through applying step. After analyzing data, the final result from applying R index showed that the risk “economic changes / currency rate and inflation change" has the most importance for the analysis. In the other words, if these risks occur, the project may face with the more threats and it is suggested that an organization should centralize its equipment, personnel, cost, and time on the risk more than ever. The most obvious issue in this paper is a tremendous difference between an importance of the financial risks and the other risks.

  14. Risking your life without a second thought: intuitive decision-making and extreme altruism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Rand

    Full Text Available When faced with the chance to help someone in mortal danger, what is our first response? Do we leap into action, only later considering the risks to ourselves? Or must instinctive self-preservation be overcome by will-power in order to act? We investigate this question by examining the testimony of Carnegie Hero Medal Recipients (CHMRs, extreme altruists who risked their lives to save others. We collected published interviews with CHMRs where they described their decisions to help. We then had participants rate the intuitiveness versus deliberativeness of the decision-making process described in each CHMR statement. The statements were judged to be overwhelmingly dominated by intuition; to be significantly more intuitive than a set of control statements describing deliberative decision-making; and to not differ significantly from a set of intuitive control statements. This remained true when restricting to scenarios in which the CHMRs had sufficient time to reflect before acting if they had so chosen. Text-analysis software found similar results. These findings suggest that high-stakes extreme altruism may be largely motivated by automatic, intuitive processes.

  15. Risk-based decision making: The East Fork Poplar Creek case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, D.R.J.; Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W.; Parkhurst, B.R.; Teed, R.S.

    1999-12-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment revealed that methylmercury released from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 weapons facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, poses moderate risks to mink and kingfishers residing near the receiving waters of East Fork Poplar Creek. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) released from this facility pose severe risks to mink but little risk to kingfishers. The objective of this study was to use a risk-based decision-making approach to select remedial cleanup levels for each of these contaminants. The authors conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate total daily intakes of each contaminant by mink (mercury and PCBs) and kingfishers (PCBs only) for a range of exposure-reduction scenarios. The resulting exposure distributions were then integrated with their respective dose-response curves to estimate postremediation risks. The results indicated that total mercury levels in surface water would need to be reduced from current levels (mean = 0.225 {micro}g/L) to 0.03 to 0.05 {micro}g/L to reduce risks to very low levels (<5% probability of {ge}20% mortality) for both mink and kingfishers. If interested parties define acceptable risk as, for example, a 20% probability of {gt} 10% mortality, then mercury levels would need to be reduced to 0.14 {micro}g/L. The PCBs analysis indicated that reducing water-borne exposures would produce only a modest reduction in risk to mink because much of the current exposure is through terrestrial exposure pathways.

  16. Risk-based decision making to manage water quality failures caused by combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriwastava, A. K.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Tait, S.; Schellart, A.

    2017-12-01

    Regulatory authorities set certain environmental permit for water utilities such that the combined sewer overflows (CSO) managed by these companies conform to the regulations. These utility companies face the risk of paying penalty or negative publicity in case they breach the environmental permit. These risks can be addressed by designing appropriate solutions such as investing in additional infrastructure which improve the system capacity and reduce the impact of CSO spills. The performance of these solutions is often estimated using urban drainage models. Hence, any uncertainty in these models can have a significant effect on the decision making process. This study outlines a risk-based decision making approach to address water quality failure caused by CSO spills. A calibrated lumped urban drainage model is used to simulate CSO spill quality in Haute-Sûre catchment in Luxembourg. Uncertainty in rainfall and model parameters is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty in the concentration of ammonia in the CSO spill. A combination of decision alternatives such as the construction of a storage tank at the CSO and the reduction in the flow contribution of catchment surfaces are selected as planning measures to avoid the water quality failure. Failure is defined as exceedance of a concentration-duration based threshold based on Austrian emission standards for ammonia (De Toffol, 2006) with a certain frequency. For each decision alternative, uncertainty quantification results into a probability distribution of the number of annual CSO spill events which exceed the threshold. For each alternative, a buffered failure probability as defined in Rockafellar & Royset (2010), is estimated. Buffered failure probability (pbf) is a conservative estimate of failure probability (pf), however, unlike failure probability, it includes information about the upper tail of the distribution. A pareto-optimal set of solutions is obtained by performing mean

  17. Relationship Power, Sexual Decision Making, and HIV Risk Among Midlife and Older Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altschuler, Joanne; Rhee, Siyon

    2015-01-01

    The number of midlife and older women with HIV/AIDS is high and increasing, especially among women of color. This article addresses these demographic realities by reporting on findings about self-esteem, relationship power, and HIV risk from a pilot study of midlife and older women. A purposive sample (N = 110) of ethnically, economically, and educationally diverse women 40 years and older from the Greater Los Angeles Area was surveyed to determine their levels of self-esteem, general relationship power, sexual decision-making power, safer sex behaviors, and HIV knowledge. Women with higher levels of self-esteem exercised greater power in their relationships with their partner. Women with higher levels of general relationship power and self-esteem tend to exercise greater power in sexual decision making, such as having sex and choosing sexual acts. Income and sexual decision-making power were statistically significant in predicting the use of condoms. Implications and recommendations for future HIV/AIDS research and intervention targeting midlife and older women are presented.

  18. Plant specific risk informed decision making -a vision for Indian PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guptan, Rajee; Mohan, Nalini; Ghadge, S.G.; Bajaj, S.S.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) safety is to ensure and demonstrate that the risk from NPP to public and plant personnel is acceptably low. As a supplement to the deterministic approach, use of probabilistic techniques has been gaining grounds. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is a popular international practice to calculate plant risk to the public, environment and plant personnel, in the event of an accident taking place in the plant. The risk posed by Nuclear Reactors to the Public at large is a very important issue in the public acceptance of a Nuclear Power Programme in any country. Risk Definition, generally accepted at present as the measure of possibility for an accidental event and severity of its effects to occur, simultaneously comprises both the probability (frequency) of potential damage occurrence and extent of this damage. NPCIL' s vision is to provide safe, reliable and cost effective energy to the nation by ensuring safe operation of the plants, limiting radiation exposure to plant personnel and public within prescribed limits. To achieve this vision our mission is to enhance the technical competency, resources and the awareness towards improved safety culture specific to Probabilistic Safety Assessment for applying PSA Studies to Risk Informed Decision making. This mission translates into the goal of completion of full scope PSA, with the co-operation and synergetic efforts of the Head quarters and Operating Station experts. NPCIL will then be self sufficient in applying Probabilistic Studies in Risk Informed Decision making to minimize risk and back fitting design changes to optimize the existing design and operating practices, thus providing for safe, reliable and cost effective energy to the nation. (author)

  19. Dopaminergic circuitry and risk/reward decision making: implications for schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stopper, Colin M; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-01-01

    Abnormal reinforcement learning and representations of reward value are present in schizophrenia, and these impairments can manifest as deficits in risk/reward decision making. These abnormalities may be due in part to dopaminergic dysfunction within cortico-limbic-striatal circuitry. Evidence from studies with laboratory animal have revealed that normal DA activity within different nodes of these circuits is critical for mediating dissociable processes that can refine decision biases. Moreover, both phasic and tonic dopamine transmission appear to play separate yet complementary roles in these processes. Tonic dopamine release within the prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens, serves as a "running rate-meter" of reward and reflects contextual information such as reward uncertainty and overt choice behavior. On the other hand, manipulations of outcome-related phasic dopamine bursts and dips suggest these signals provide rapid feedback to allow for quick adjustments in choice as reward contingencies change. The lateral habenula is a key input to the DA system that phasic signals is necessary for expressing subjective decision biases; as suppression of activity within this nucleus leads to catastrophic impairments in decision making and random patterns of choice behavior. As schizophrenia is characterized by impairments in using positive and negative feedback to appropriately guide decision making, these findings suggest that these deficits in these processes may be mediated, at least in part, by abnormalities in both tonic and phasic dopamine transmission. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simioni, Samanta; Schluep, Myriam; Bault, Nadège; Coricelli, Giorgio; Kleeberg, Joerg; Du Pasquier, Renaud A; Gschwind, Markus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Annoni, Jean-Marie

    2012-01-01

    Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (paffect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  1. A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk

  2. Risk-informed decision making a keystone in advanced safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinhart, M.

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has provided extremely valuable complementary insight, perspective, comprehension, and balance to deterministic nuclear reactor safety assessment. This integrated approach of risk-informed management and decision making has been called Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM). RIDM provides enhanced safety, reliability, operational flexibility, reduced radiological exposure, and improved fiscal economy. Applications of RIDM continuously increase. Current applications are in the areas of design, construction, licensing, operations, and security. Operational phase safety applications include the following: technical specifications improvement, risk-monitors and configuration control, maintenance planning, outage planning and management, in-service inspection, inservice testing, graded quality assurance, reactor oversight and inspection, inspection finding significance determination, operational events assessment, and rulemaking. Interestingly there is a significant spectrum of approaches, methods, programs, controls, data bases, and standards. The quest of many is to assimilate the full compliment of PSA and RIDM information and to achieve a balanced international harmony. The goal is to focus the best of the best, so to speak, for the benefit of all. Accordingly, this presentation will address the principles, benefits, and applications of RIDM. It will also address some of the challenges and areas to improve. Finally it will highlight efforts by the IAEA and others to capture the international thinking, experience, successes, challenges, and lessons in RIDM. (authors)

  3. Balancing risk in regulatory decision making: the Port Granby Project case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benitez, L.; Kleb, H.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review the trade-offs that are routinely considered in regulatory decision making, and the policy basis and methods for making those trade-offs. Regulatory decisions under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) and the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA) normally consider potential risks to the environment, human health and safety, if a project were to proceed. There is only limited consideration, under such circumstances, of the risks to the environment, human health and safety if the project were not to proceed. The focus is on the potential adverse effects of the project, except in the event of an emergency, where the focus shifts to the economic and other beneficial effects. The Port Granby long-term low-level radioactive waste management project is a project to clean up and provide appropriate local, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the Port Granby, Ontario area. Approximately 0.4 M m 3 of LLRW, presently located at the Port Granby Waste Management Facility, is to be transported to a newly constructed long-term waste management facility ~700 m north of the bluff face where the facility is located. Accordingly, the project is subject to environmental assessment and licensing processes under the CEAA and the NSCA, respectively. While the Port Granby Project does not represent an emergency situation, it does represent a situation that could result in a significant degree of environmental risk if the project were not to proceed. Over the course of the various studies that have been undertaken at the Waste Management Facility, it has become apparent that the facility is subject to erosion and gullying along the bluff face. The potential for the leaching of contaminants from the existing facility and the erosion of the Lake Ontario bluffs are recognized as ongoing risks that will continue and potentially worsen if the project does not proceed. The economic and other considerations that

  4. Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

    2015-01-01

    For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

  5. An intelligent system for helping petroleum industry risk management decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, Mara M.G.; Ebecken, Nelson F.F. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    1998-07-01

    The objective of this paper is to present an intelligent system for helping in decision making about risk analysis in petroleum industry management. Such a system supports explicit inconsistencies in its knowledge bases, and is able to solve it by means of a decision's procedure, in which Fuzzy Logic is used. Expert Systems which knowledge bases carry out explicitly inconsistencies are called paraconsistent systems and were initially proposed by Da Costa and Subrahmanian. The defuzzyfication process of a paraconsistent model was already suggested by Barreto, Ebecken and Clement, and established by Barreto and Ebecken. In Barreto, Ebecken and Clemente show an application of this model for helping in decision making in a business situation. The system that will be presented here is a simulation of many possible applications of this model, and helps the analyses of risk business petroleum project's investment, and, it is desirable, can point out some possibilities of getting out difficulties when the risk is increased. In the introduction, we define some risk result's indicators to be considered, such as, petroleum business project duration, staffing, priority; and we define the system's logical structure. In the Overriding Part, firstly, we show the implemented system's , simulation, how it works, how to get outputs from the given and how to analyze the final results, and explicit the methods used in situations where the inconsistencies appear giving comments about the critical situations. Finally, in the conclusion, we comment the coherence of results, and give comments about some others applications of this kind of systems. (author)

  6. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  7. Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Ma

    Full Text Available Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

  8. Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

    2015-01-01

    In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

  9. NRG Oncology/National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Decision-Making Project-1 Results: Decision Making in Breast Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Christine; Bandos, Hanna; Fagerlin, Angela; Bevers, Therese B; Battaglia, Tracy A; Wickerham, D Lawrence; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta J

    2017-11-01

    Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) reduce breast cancer risk. Adoption of SERMs as prevention medication remains low. This is the first study to quantify social, cultural, and psychologic factors driving decision making regarding SERM use in women counseled on breast cancer prevention options. A survey study was conducted with women counseled by a health care provider (HCP) about SERMs. A statistical comparison of responses was performed between those who decided to use and those who decided not to use SERMs. Independent factors associated with the decision were determined using logistic regression. Of 1,023 participants, 726 made a decision: 324 (44.6%) decided to take a SERM and 402 (55.4%) decided not to. The most important factor for deciding on SERM use was the HCP recommendation. Other characteristics associated with the decision included attitudes and perceptions regarding medication intake, breast cancer worry, trust in HCP, family members with blood clots, and others' experiences with SERMs. The odds of SERM intake when HCP recommended were higher for participants with a positive attitude toward taking medications than for those with a negative attitude ( P interaction = 0.01). This study highlights the importance of social and cultural aspects for SERM decision making, most importantly personal beliefs and experiences. HCPs' recommendations play a statistically significant role in decision making and are more likely to be followed if in line with patients' attitudes. Results indicate the need for developing interventions for HCPs that not only focus on the presentation of medical information but, equally as important, on addressing patients' beliefs and experiences. Cancer Prev Res; 10(11); 625-34. ©2017 AACR See related editorial by Crew, p. 609 . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  10. Risk-sensitivity and the mean-variance trade-off: decision making in sensorimotor control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Arne J; Braun, Daniel A; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2011-08-07

    Numerous psychophysical studies suggest that the sensorimotor system chooses actions that optimize the average cost associated with a movement. Recently, however, violations of this hypothesis have been reported in line with economic theories of decision-making that not only consider the mean payoff, but are also sensitive to risk, that is the variability of the payoff. Here, we examine the hypothesis that risk-sensitivity in sensorimotor control arises as a mean-variance trade-off in movement costs. We designed a motor task in which participants could choose between a sure motor action that resulted in a fixed amount of effort and a risky motor action that resulted in a variable amount of effort that could be either lower or higher than the fixed effort. By changing the mean effort of the risky action while experimentally fixing its variance, we determined indifference points at which participants chose equiprobably between the sure, fixed amount of effort option and the risky, variable effort option. Depending on whether participants accepted a variable effort with a mean that was higher, lower or equal to the fixed effort, they could be classified as risk-seeking, risk-averse or risk-neutral. Most subjects were risk-sensitive in our task consistent with a mean-variance trade-off in effort, thereby, underlining the importance of risk-sensitivity in computational models of sensorimotor control.

  11. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  12. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tungju Wu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires on TMTs completed by representatives from enterprises in China and found risk perceptions and mental models that serve as a mediating factor and are affected by the TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. We also found that psychological ownership exerts moderating effects between TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. This paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications for enterprise owners.

  13. Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2016-12-01

    When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Perspectives on benefit-risk decision-making in vaccinology: Conference report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, M; Simondon, F; Saadatian-Elahi, M

    2016-01-01

    Benefit/risk (B/R) assessment methods are increasingly being used by regulators and companies as an important decision-making tool and their outputs as the basis of communication. B/R appraisal of vaccines, as compared with drugs, is different due to their attributes and their use. For example, vaccines are typically given to healthy people, and, for some vaccines, benefits exist both at the population and individual level. For vaccines in particular, factors such as the benefit afforded through herd effects as a function of vaccine coverage and consequently impact the B/R ratio, should also be taken into consideration and parameterized in B/R assessment models. Currently, there is no single agreed methodology for vaccine B/R assessment that can fully capture all these aspects. The conference "Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision-making in Vaccinology," held in Annecy (France), addressed these issues and provided recommendations on how to advance the science and practice of B/R assessment of vaccines and vaccination programs.

  15. Preference Reversals in Decision Making Under Risk are Accompanied by Changes in Attention to Different Attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Betty E; Seligman, Darryl; Kable, Joseph W

    2012-01-01

    Recent work has shown that visual fixations reflect and influence trial-to-trial variability in people's preferences between goods. Here we extend this principle to attribute weights during decision making under risk. We measured eye movements while people chose between two risky gambles or bid on a single gamble. Consistent with previous work, we found that people exhibited systematic preference reversals between choices and bids. For two gambles matched in expected value, people systematically chose the higher probability option but provided a higher bid for the option that offered the greater amount to win. This effect was accompanied by a shift in fixations of the two attributes, with people fixating on probabilities more during choices and on amounts more during bids. Our results suggest that the construction of value during decision making under risk depends on task context partly because the task differentially directs attention at probabilities vs. amounts. Since recent work demonstrates that neural correlates of value vary with visual fixations, our results also suggest testable hypotheses regarding how task context modulates the neural computation of value to generate preference reversals.

  16. Trait mindfulness helps shield decision-making from translating into health-risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, David S; Sussman, Steve; Johnson, C Anderson; Milam, Joel

    2012-12-01

    The cognitive tendency toward mindfulness may influence the enactment of health and risk behaviors by its bringing increased attention to and awareness of decision-making processes underlying behavior. The present study examined the moderating effect of trait mindfulness on associations between intentions to smoke (ITS)/smoking refusal self-efficacy (SRSE) and smoking frequency. Self-reports from Chinese adolescents (N = 5,287; mean age = 16.2 years, standard deviation = .7; 48.8% female) were collected in 24 schools. Smoking frequency was regressed on latent factor interactions Mindful Attention Awareness Scale*ITS and Mindful Attention Awareness Scale*SRSE, adjusting for school clustering effects and covariates. Both interaction terms were significant in cross-sectional analyses and showed that high ITS predicted higher smoking frequency among those low, relative to high, in trait mindfulness, whereas low SRSE predicted higher smoking frequency among those low, relative to high, in trait mindfulness. Findings suggest trait mindfulness possibly shields against decision-making processes that place adolescents at risk for smoking. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

  18. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bond Lyndal

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding of the differences between immunisers' and non-immunisers' health beliefs and behaviours. Methods In a qualitative study we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with 45 Australian parents exploring their experiences and perceptions of disease severity and susceptibility. Using scenarios about 'a new strain of flu' we explored how risk information was interpreted. Results We found that concepts of dread, unfamiliarity, and uncontrollability from the subjective perception of risk and ambiguity, optimistic control and omission bias from explanatory theories of decision-making under uncertainty were useful in understanding why immunisers, incomplete immunisers and non-immunisers interpreted severity and susceptibility to diseases and vaccine risk differently. Immunisers dreaded unfamiliar diseases whilst non-immunisers dreaded unknown, long term side effects of vaccines. Participants believed that the risks of diseases and complications from diseases are not equally spread throughout the community, therefore, when listening to reports of epidemics, it is not the number of people who are affected but the familiarity or unfamiliarity of the disease and the characteristics of those who have had the disease that prompts them to take preventive action. Almost all believed they themselves would not be at serious risk of the 'new strain of flu' but were less willing to take risks with their children's health. Conclusion This study has found that health messages

  19. Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Lyndal; Nolan, Terry

    2011-12-20

    Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding of the differences between immunisers' and non-immunisers' health beliefs and behaviours. In a qualitative study we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with 45 Australian parents exploring their experiences and perceptions of disease severity and susceptibility. Using scenarios about 'a new strain of flu' we explored how risk information was interpreted. We found that concepts of dread, unfamiliarity, and uncontrollability from the subjective perception of risk and ambiguity, optimistic control and omission bias from explanatory theories of decision-making under uncertainty were useful in understanding why immunisers, incomplete immunisers and non-immunisers interpreted severity and susceptibility to diseases and vaccine risk differently. Immunisers dreaded unfamiliar diseases whilst non-immunisers dreaded unknown, long term side effects of vaccines. Participants believed that the risks of diseases and complications from diseases are not equally spread throughout the community, therefore, when listening to reports of epidemics, it is not the number of people who are affected but the familiarity or unfamiliarity of the disease and the characteristics of those who have had the disease that prompts them to take preventive action. Almost all believed they themselves would not be at serious risk of the 'new strain of flu' but were less willing to take risks with their children's health. This study has found that health messages about the risks of disease which are communicated as though there

  20. Problems of making decisions with account of risk and safety factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larichev, O I

    1987-01-01

    New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis.

  1. Problems of making decisions with account of risk and safety factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larichev, O.I.

    1987-01-01

    New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis

  2. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  3. Culinary Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  4. Decision-making, financial risk aversion, and behavioral biases: The role of testosterone and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofsinger, John R; Patterson, Fernando M; Shank, Corey A

    2018-05-01

    We examine the relation between testosterone, cortisol, and financial decisions in a sample of naïve investors. We find that testosterone level is positively related to excess risk-taking, whereas cortisol level is negatively related to excess risk-taking (correlation coefficient [r]: 0.75 and -0.21, respectively). Additionally, we find support for the dual-hormone hypothesis in a financial context. Specifically, the testosterone-to-cortisol ratio is significantly related to loss aversion. Individuals with a higher ratio are 3.4 times more likely to sell losing stocks (standard error [SE]: 1.63). Furthermore, we find a positive feedback loop between financial success, testosterone, and cortisol. Specifically, financial success is significantly related to higher post-trial testosterone and cortisol by a factor of 0.53 (SE: 0.14). Finally, we find that in a competitive environment, testosterone level increases significantly, leading to greater risk-taking than in noncompetitive environment. Overall, this study underscores the importance of the endocrine system on financial decision-making. The results of this study are relevant to a broad audience, including investors looking to optimize financial performance, industry human resources, market regulators, and researchers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2014-10-15

    The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samanta Simioni

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS. There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1 The Wheel of Fortune (WOF, which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2 The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005 and greater risk aversion (p<0.001. They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01, although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01 and deliberation time (p = 0.0002, the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

  7. Organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

  8. Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling

    OpenAIRE

    Quartz, Steven R.

    2009-01-01

    Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parame...

  9. Nuclear power plant personnel errors in decision-making as an object of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reer, B.

    1993-09-01

    The integration of human error - also called man-machine system analysis (MMSA) - is an essential part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). A new method is presented which allows for a systematic and comprehensive PRA inclusions of decision-based errors due to conflicts or similarities. For the error identification procedure, new question techniques are developed. These errors are shown to be identified by looking at retroactions caused by subordinate goals as components of the overall safety relevant goal. New quantification methods for estimating situation-specific probabilities are developed. The factors conflict and similarity are operationalized in a way that allows their quantification based on informations which are usually available in PRA. The quantification procedure uses extrapolations and interpolations based on a poor set of data related to decision-based errors. Moreover, for passive errors in decision-making a completely new approach is presented where errors are quantified via a delay initiating the required action rather than via error probabilities. The practicability of this dynamic approach is demonstrated by a probabilistic analysis of the actions required during the total loss of feedwater event at the Davis-Besse plant 1985. The extensions of the ''classical'' PRA method developed in this work are applied to a MMSA of the decay heat removal (DHR) of the ''HTR-500''. Errors in decision-making - as potential roots of extraneous acts - are taken into account in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Five additional errors are identified. However, the probabilistic quantification results a nonsignificant increase of the DHR failure probability. (orig.) [de

  10. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  11. Decision making and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

  13. Decision-making deficits in pathological gambling: the role of executive functions, explicit knowledge and impulsivity in relation to decisions made under ambiguity and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Cristian; Alvarez-Moya, Eva M; Penelo, Eva; Aymami, M Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Granero, Roser; Vallejo-Ruiloba, Julio; Menchón, José Manuel; Lawrence, Natalia S; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

    2013-01-01

    A variety of cognitive and emotional processes influence the decision-making deficits observed in pathological gambling (PG). This study investigated the role of immediate/delayed sensitivity to reward and punishment, executive functions, impulsivity and explicit knowledge in relation to decision-making performance on the original Iowa Gambling Task (IGT-ABCD) and a variant (IGT-EFGH). We assessed 131 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of PG by using executive functioning and decision-making tasks, self-report measures of impulsivity and explicit knowledge. The majority of pathological gamblers (PGs) showed deficits in decision-making, characterized mainly by myopia for the future. Decisions made under risk showed different predictors. Performance on the IGT-ABCD for decisions made under risk was predicted by medium and high levels of explicit knowledge of the task, as well as by scores on the Disorderliness subscale and the degree of Stroop interference. By contrast, IGT-EFGH results were only associated with self-report impulsivity measures. Decision making in PG involves distinct patterns of deficits, and the predictors differ depending on the reinforcement schedule. Decisions made under risk on the IGT-ABCD are associated with explicit knowledge, executive functions and impulsivity traits related to conscious awareness and control processes. On the IGT-EFGH, however, only impulsivity traits predict decision making. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  14. An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, Mieczysław; Kowal, Karol; Potempski, Sławomir

    2015-01-01

    A new framework of integrated risk informed decision making (IRIDM) has been recently developed in order to improve the risk management of the nuclear facilities. IRIDM is a process in which qualitatively different inputs, corresponding to different types of risk, are jointly taken into account. However, the relative importance of the IRIDM inputs and their influence on the decision to be made is difficult to be determined quantitatively. An improvement of this situation can be achieved by application of the Value Tree Analysis (VTA) methods. The aim of this article is to present the VTA methodology in the context of its potential usage in the decision making on nuclear facilities. The benefits of the VTA application within the IRIDM process were identified while making the decision on fuel conversion of the research reactor MARIA. - Highlights: • New approach to risk informed decision making on nuclear facilities was postulated. • Value tree diagram was developed for decision processes on nuclear installations. • An experiment was performed to compare the new approach with the standard one. • Benefits of the new approach were reached in fuel conversion of a research reactor. • The new approach makes the decision making process more transparent and auditable

  15. Beyond informed choice: Prenatal risk assessment, decision-making and trust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nete Schwennesen

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2004 prenatal risk assessment (PRA was implemented as a routine offer to all pregnant women in Denmark. It was argued that primarily the new programme would give all pregnant women an informed choice about whether to undergo prenatal testing. On the basis of ethnographic fieldwork in an ultrasound clinic in Denmark and interviews with pregnant women and their partners, we call into question the assumption underlying the new guidelines that more choice and more objective information is a source of empowerment and control. We focus on one couple's experience of PRA. This case makes it evident how supposed choices in the context of PRA may not be experienced as such. Rather, they are experienced as complicated processes of meaning-making in the relational space between the clinical setting, professional authority and the social life of the couples. PRA users are reluctant to make choices and abandon health professionals as authoritative experts in the face of complex risk knowledge. When assumptions about autonomy and self-determination are inscribed into the social practice of PRA, authority is transferred to the couple undergoing PRA and a new configuration of responsibility evolves between the couple and their relationship to the foetus. It is argued that al-though the new programme of prenatal testing in Denmark presents itself in opposition to quasi-eugenic and paternalistic forms of governing couples' decisions it represents another form of government that works through the notion of choice. An ethics of a shared responsibility of PRA and its outcome would be more in agreement with how decisions are actually made.http://dx.doi.org/10.5324/eip.v2i1.1687

  16. Decision making and risk analysis during the development of wind energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanhaesebroeck, M.

    2004-11-01

    This study aims at determining a methodology or criteria which can be used as decision making tools for the development of wind power projects and for the objective profitability comparison between several projects. In the first part, the different steps of the development of a wind power project in France are described. For each step, the cost of the studies, the related approaches and the main risks of abandonment are precised. The potential time drifts in the planning of the project are identified on the basis of the experience feedback of the first years of wind power development in France. In the second part, the possibilities of using classical investment choice techniques are analyzed. The characteristics having more impact on the project profitability are identified. In the third part, the sequential models with increasing information are used to evaluate a project, whatever its level of development. Finally, a concrete case is considered to see how these models can be used as decision making tools during key steps of wind farms development. (J.S.)

  17. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

  18. Dissociation of decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk in breast cancer patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy: a neuropsychological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xingui; Zhu, Chunyan; Li, Jingjing; Qiu, Linlin; Zhang, Long; Yu, Fengqiong; Ye, Rong; Zhang, Jingjie; Wang, Kai

    2013-10-02

    There is evidence that women with breast cancer show a cognitive impairment after having undergone chemotherapy treatment; this cognitive impairment may result in behavioral deficits. However, the neural mechanism of this cognitive impairment remains unclear. The present study investigated the neural basis of the cognitive impairment caused by chemotherapy treatment by exploring the decision-making function of the executive subcomponents under ambiguity and risk in breast cancer survivors. Participants included breast cancer patients who had undergone chemotherapy (CT, N=63) or patients who did not undergo chemotherapy (non-CT, N=62), as well as matched healthy controls (HC, N=61). All participants were examined using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to assess their decision-making under ambiguity, the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to assess their decision-making under risk and neuropsychological background tests. Our results indicated that during the IGT test, the chemotherapy-treated breast cancer patients selected from the disadvantageous decks with a higher frequency than the non-treated breast cancer patients or healthy controls, whereas all three groups performed at the same level when performing the GDT. The CT group demonstrated significantly lower scores in several cognitive tasks, including attention, memory, executive functions and cognitive processing, when compared with the other two groups. In addition, within the CT group, significant correlations were found between the IGT performance and information processing, as well as with working memory. This study demonstrated that breast cancer survivors treated with chemotherapy may have selective reductions in IGT performance but unimpaired GDT performance and that these deficits may result from dysfunctions in the limbic loop rather than in the dorsolateral prefrontal loop. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Infrastructure Systems Interdependencies and Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM: Impact Scenario Analysis of Infrastructure Risks Induced by Natural, Technological and Intentional Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolph Frederick Stapelberg

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews current research into infrastructure systems interdependencies with regard to safesty risks induced by natural, technological and intentional hazards. The paper further considers risk informed decision-making.

  20. Risk perception & strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2005-11-01

    The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate the wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system.

  1. Risk and uncertainty: shifting decision making for aneuploidy screening to the first trimester of pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Ruth M; Dolgin, Natasha; Flocke, Susan A; Winbush, Victoria; Mercer, Mary Beth; Simon, Christian

    2011-05-01

    The clinical introduction of first trimester aneuploidy screening uniquely challenges the informed consent process for both patients and providers. This study investigated key aspects of the decision-making process for this new form of prenatal genetic screening. Qualitative data were collected by nine focus groups that comprised women of different reproductive histories (N = 46 participants). Discussions explored themes regarding patient decision making for first trimester aneuploidy screening. Sessions were audio recorded, transcribed, coded, and analyzed to identify themes. Multiple levels of uncertainty characterize the decision-making process for first trimester aneuploidy screening. Baseline levels of uncertainty existed for participants in the context of an early pregnancy and the debate about the benefit of fetal genetic testing in general. Additional sources of uncertainty during the decision-making process were generated from weighing the advantages and disadvantages of initiating screening in the first trimester as opposed to waiting until the second. Questions of the quality and quantity of information and the perceived benefit of earlier access to fetal information were leading themes. Barriers to access prenatal care in early pregnancy presented participants with additional concerns about the ability to make informed decisions about prenatal genetic testing. The option of the first trimester aneuploidy screening test in early pregnancy generates decision-making uncertainty that can interfere with the informed consent process. Mechanisms must be developed to facilitate informed decision making for this new form of prenatal genetic screening.

  2. Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and

  3. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  4. Factors associated with confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication among patients with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedberg, Berith; Malm, Dan; Karlsson, Jan-Erik; Årestedt, Kristofer; Broström, Anders

    2018-06-01

    Atrial fibrillation is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia. Effective communication of risks (e.g. stroke risk) and benefits of treatment (e.g. oral anticoagulants) is crucial for the process of shared decision making. The aim of this study was to explore factors associated with confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication after a follow-up visit among patients who three months earlier had visited an emergency room for atrial fibrillation related symptoms. A cross-sectional design was used and 322 patients (34% women), mean age 66.1 years (SD 10.5 years) with atrial fibrillation were included in the south of Sweden. Clinical examinations were done post an atrial fibrillation episode. Self-rating scales for communication (Combined Outcome Measure for Risk Communication and Treatment Decision Making Effectiveness), uncertainty in illness (Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale-Community), mastery of daily life (Mastery Scale), depressive symptoms (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and vitality, physical health and mental health (36-item Short Form Health Survey) were used to collect data. Decreased vitality and mastery of daily life, as well as increased uncertainty in illness, were independently associated with lower confidence in decision making. Absence of hypertension and increased uncertainty in illness were independently associated with lower satisfaction with risk communication. Clinical atrial fibrillation variables or depressive symptoms were not associated with satisfaction with confidence in decision making or satisfaction with risk communication. The final models explained 29.1% and 29.5% of the variance in confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication. Confidence in decision making is associated with decreased vitality and mastery of daily life, as well as increased uncertainty in illness, while absence of hypertension and increased uncertainty in illness are associated with risk communication satisfaction.

  5. Pulmonary embolism in old age: usefulness of risk stratification in clinical decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Bova

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism (PE is a common disease with a not negligible short-term risk of death, in particular in the elderly. An adequate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with PE may guide decision-making in terms of the intensity of the initial treatment during the acute phase. Patients with shock or persistent hypotension are at high risk of early mortality and may benefit from immediate reperfusion. Several tools are available to define the short-term prognosis of hemodynamically stable patients. The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI score, and the simplified PESI score are particularly useful for identifying patients at low risk of early complications who might be safely treated at home. The identification of patients who are hemodynamically stable at diagnosis but are at a high risk of early complications is more challenging. Current guidelines recommend a multi-parametric prognostic algorithm based on the clinical status, biomarkers and imaging tests. However an aggressive treatment in hemodynamically stable patients is still controversial.

  6. The availability of public information for insurance risk decision-making in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nigel; Gibbs, Mark; Chadwick, Ben; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    At present, there is a wealth of hazard and exposure data which cannot or is not being full used by risk modelling community. The reasons for this under-utilisation of data are many: restrictive and complex data policies and pricing, risks involved in information sharing, technological shortcomings, and variable resolution of data, particularly with catastrophe models only recently having been adjusted to consume high-resolution exposure data. There is therefore an urgent need for the development of common modelling practices and applications for climate and geo-hazard risk assessment, all of which would be highly relevant to public policy, disaster risk management and financial risk transfer communities. This paper will present a methodology to overcome these obstacles and to review the availability of hazard data at research institutions in a consistent format. Such a methodology would facilitate the collation of hazard and other auxiliary data, as well as present data within a geo-spatial framework suitable for public and commercial use. The methodology would also review the suitability of datasets and how these could be made more freely available in conjunction with other research institutions in order to present a consistent data standard. It is clear that an understanding of these different issues of data and data standards have significant ramifications when used in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment. Scrutinising the issue of data standards also allows the data to be evaluated and re-evaluated for its gaps, omissions, fitness, purpose, availability and precision. Not only would there be a quality check on data, but it would also help develop and fine-tune the tools used for decision-making and assessment of risk.

  7. Unrealistic optimism and decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Bojana

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.

  8. Development and aging of decision-making rationality under risk framework

    OpenAIRE

    Han-hui LIU; Yan-yan AN; Hui-min LI; Zhen WEI; Xing-ting ZHU; Hui-jie LI

    2014-01-01

    Background Humans often display irrational choice and decision-making due to the frame effect. However, it is unclear whether this irrational choice and decision-making will increase during the aging process. Methods The present research explored development and aging of risky-seeking and rational decision-making with 232 younger adults and 120 older adults. The experiment was a 2 (Age:younger adult and old adult) × 2 (Frame: positive and negative) × 2 (Relevance: lower level and higher level...

  9. Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions-a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

    2015-06-01

    While making decisions under objective risk conditions, the probabilities of the consequences of the available options are either provided or calculable. Brand et al. (Neural Networks 19:1266-1276, 2006) introduced a model describing the neuro-cognitive processes involved in such decisions. In this model, executive functions associated with activity in the fronto-striatal loop are important for developing and applying decision-making strategies, and for verifying, adapting, or revising strategies according to feedback. Emotional rewards and punishments learned from such feedback accompany these processes. In this literature review, we found support for the role of executive functions, but also found evidence for the importance of further cognitive abilities in decision making. Moreover, in addition to reflective processing (driven by cognition), decisions can be guided by impulsive processing (driven by anticipation of emotional reward and punishment). Reflective and impulsive processing may interact during decision making, affecting the evaluation of available options, as both processes are affected by feedback. Decision-making processes are furthermore modulated by individual attributes (e.g., age), and external influences (e.g., stressors). Accordingly, we suggest a revised model of decision making under objective risk conditions.

  10. Cognitive judgment bias interacts with risk based decision making and sensitivity to dopaminergic challenge in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Drozd

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Although cognitive theory has implicated judgement bias in various psychopathologies, its role in decision making under risk remains relatively unexplored. In the present study we assessed the effects of cognitive judgment bias on risky choices in rats. First, we trained and tested the animals on the rat version of the probability-discounting task. During discrete trials, the rats chose between two levers; a press on the ‘small/certain’ lever always resulted in the delivery of one reward pellet, whereas a press on the ‘large/risky’ lever resulted in the delivery of four pellets. However, the probability of receiving a reward from the ‘large/risky’ lever gradually decreased over the four trial blocks. Subsequently, the rats were re-trained and evaluated on a series of ambiguous-cue interpretation tests, which permitted their classification according to the display of ‘optimistic’ or ‘pessimistic’ traits. Because dopamine has been implicated in both: risky choices and optimism, in the last experiment, we compared the reactivity of the dopaminergic system in the ‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ animals using the apomorphine (2mg/kg s.c. sensitivity test. We demonstrated that as risk increased, the proportion of risky lever choices decreased significantly slower in ‘optimists’ compared with ‘pessimists’ and that these differences between the two groups of rats were associated with different levels of dopaminergic system reactivity. Our findings suggest that cognitive judgement bias, risky decision-making and dopamine are linked, and they provide a foundation for further investigation of the behavioural traits and cognitive processes that influence risky choices in animal models.

  11. Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartz, Steven R

    2009-05-01

    Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parameters correspond to various decision-making frameworks, and their correspondence to emotional and rational processes. Here, I review research suggesting that emotional processes encode in a precise quantitative manner the basic parameters of financial decision theory, indicating a reorientation of emotional and cognitive contributions to risky choice.

  12. Ethical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zsolnai, László

    2011-01-01

    The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

  13. Handbook on Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi C

    2010-01-01

    The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

  14. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaurio, Jussi K., E-mail: jussi.vaurio@pp1.inet.fi [Prometh Solutions, Hiihtaejaenkuja 3K, 06100 Porvoo (Finland)

    2011-11-15

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: > Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  15. Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaurio, Jussi K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes roles, extensions and applications of importance measures of components and configurations for making risk-informed decisions relevant to system operations, maintenance and safety. Basic importance measures and their relationships are described for independent and mutually exclusive events and for groups of events associated with common cause failures. The roles of importances are described mainly in two groups of activities: (a) ranking safety significance of systems, structures, components and human actions for preventive safety assurance activities, and (b) making decisions about permissible permanent and temporary configurations and allowed configuration times for regulation, technical specifications and for on-line risk monitoring. Criticality importance and sums of criticalities turn out to be appropriate measures for ranking and optimization. Several advantages are pointed out and consistent ranking of pipe segments for in-service inspection is provided as an example. Risk increase factor and its generalization risk gain are most appropriately used to assess corrective priorities and acceptability of a situation when components are already failed or when planning to take one or more components out of service for maintenance. Precise definitions are introduced for multi-failure configurations and it is shown how they can be assessed under uncertainties, in particular when common cause failures or success states may be involved. A general weighted average method is compared to other candidate methods in benchmark cases. It is the preferable method for prediction when a momentary configuration is known or only partially known. Potential applications and optimization of allowed outage times are described. The results show how to generalize and apply various importance measures to ranking and optimization and how to manage configurations in uncertain multi-failure situations. - Highlights: → Rigorous methods developed for using importances

  16. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  17. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  18. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  19. Managerial Decision Making in Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Perić

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.

  20. Exploration of Risks in Autonomous Decision-Making Applied to Aeronautics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prior research into metrics and design for autonomy were presented. At this time, the prospect of adding significant autonomous decision-making on a piloted aircraft...

  1. Decision-making under risk conditions is susceptible to interference by a secondary executive task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starcke, Katrin; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Wolf, Oliver T; Altstötter-Gleich, Christine; Brand, Matthias

    2011-05-01

    Recent research suggests two ways of making decisions: an intuitive and an analytical one. The current study examines whether a secondary executive task interferes with advantageous decision-making in the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps executive functioning. One group of participants performed the original GDT solely, two groups performed either the GDT and a 1-back or a 2-back working memory task as a secondary task simultaneously. Results show that the group which performed the GDT and the secondary task with high executive load (2-back) decided less advantageously than the group which did not perform a secondary executive task. These findings give further evidence for the view that decision-making under risky conditions taps into the rational-analytical system which acts in a serial and not parallel way as performance on the GDT is disturbed by a parallel task that also requires executive resources.

  2. Modelling financial risk in open pit mine projects: Implications for strategic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Sabour, S.A.; Wood, G.

    2009-01-01

    Strategic decisions in the mining industry are made under multiple technical and market uncertainties. Therefore, to reach the best possible decision, based on information available, it is necessary to integrate uncertainty about the input variables and model financial risk of the project's merit measures. However, this rovides few useful insights to decision-makers unless accompanied by modeling management responses to uncertainty resolutions. It is widely acknowledged that conventional deci...

  3. Decision making concept of risk control: integration of decision criteria, top level risk indices and plant performance indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Mavko, B.; Kozuh, M.

    1993-01-01

    A support system for risk monitoring and control is suggested. The following concepts of system elements are briefly discussed: risk curve partitioning, the reliability cost function, the multi-objective optimization model, preference assessment, safety/risk indicators, and knowledge based systems. (Z.S.) 2 figs

  4. Emotion and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-03

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  5. A Method on the Item Investment Risk Interval Decision-making of Processing Ranking Style

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Li-wen

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, on the bases of the defeot of riskful type and indefinite type decisions, the concept of the type of item investment probability scheduling decision is given, and a linear programming model and its solution are made out. The feasibility of probability scheduling type item investment plan is studied by applying the quality of interval arithmetic.

  6. The effect of decentralized behavioral decision making on system-level risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaivanto, Kim

    2014-12-01

    Certain classes of system-level risk depend partly on decentralized lay decision making. For instance, an organization's network security risk depends partly on its employees' responses to phishing attacks. On a larger scale, the risk within a financial system depends partly on households' responses to mortgage sales pitches. Behavioral economics shows that lay decisionmakers typically depart in systematic ways from the normative rationality of expected utility (EU), and instead display heuristics and biases as captured in the more descriptively accurate prospect theory (PT). In turn, psychological studies show that successful deception ploys eschew direct logical argumentation and instead employ peripheral-route persuasion, manipulation of visceral emotions, urgency, and familiar contextual cues. The detection of phishing emails and inappropriate mortgage contracts may be framed as a binary classification task. Signal detection theory (SDT) offers the standard normative solution, formulated as an optimal cutoff threshold, for distinguishing between good/bad emails or mortgages. In this article, we extend SDT behaviorally by rederiving the optimal cutoff threshold under PT. Furthermore, we incorporate the psychology of deception into determination of SDT's discriminability parameter. With the neo-additive probability weighting function, the optimal cutoff threshold under PT is rendered unique under well-behaved sampling distributions, tractable in computation, and transparent in interpretation. The PT-based cutoff threshold is (i) independent of loss aversion and (ii) more conservative than the classical SDT cutoff threshold. Independently of any possible misalignment between individual-level and system-level misclassification costs, decentralized behavioral decisionmakers are biased toward underdetection, and system-level risk is consequently greater than in analyses predicated upon normative rationality. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

    1998-01-01

    For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

  8. Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira

    2014-07-01

    A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  9. Decision making under risk : a study of models and measurement procedures with special reference to the farmer's marketing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smidts, A.

    1990-01-01

    The objectives of the study were: a) to review, discuss and test a number of theories on individual decision making under risk; much attention is specifically given to the definition and empirical testing of the concept of relative risk attitude, b) to investigate in a large scale survey

  10. Decision making under risk. A study of models and measurement procedures with special reference to the farmers' marketing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Smidts (Ale)

    1990-01-01

    textabstractThe objectives of the study were: a) to review, discuss and test a number of theories on individual decision making under risk; much attention is specifically given to the definition and empirical testing of the concept of relative risk attitude, b) to investigate in a large scale survey

  11. The Effect of Knowledge of Online Security Risks on Consumer Decision Making in B2C e-Commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ping An

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation research studied how different degrees of knowledge of online security risks affect B2C (business-to-consumer) e-commerce consumer decision making. Online information security risks, such as identity theft, have increasingly become a major factor inhibiting the potential growth of e-commerce. On the other hand, e-commerce…

  12. Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

    2017-01-01

    Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

  13. Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

    2017-09-17

    Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

  14. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2010-09-01

    The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

    2018-01-01

    Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. The Pink Underside: The Commercialization of Medical Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Tools for Hereditary Breast Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; Flynn, Bailey; Farrelly, Keeva

    2018-04-01

    The growth of the Internet since the millennium has opened up a myriad of opportunities for education, particularly in medicine. Although those looking for health care information used to have to turn to a face-to-face doctor's visit, an immense library of medical advice is now available at their fingertips. The BRCA genetic predispositions (mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 breast cancer genes) which expose men and women to greater risk of breast, ovarian, and other cancers can be researched extensively online. Several nonprofit organizations now offer online risk assessment and decision-making tools meant to supplement conversation with medical professionals, which in actuality are quickly replacing it. We argue here through a critical qualitative template analysis of several such tools that the discursive frameworks utilized are prone to fearmongering, commercialization, and questionable validity. Left unchecked, these assessment tools could do more harm than good in driving young women especially to take unnecessary extreme surgical action.

  17. Clinical Decision-Making Following Disasters: Efficient Identification of PTSD Risk in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Carla Kmett; Cohen, Joseph R; Adams, Zachary W; Youngstrom, Eric A; Soltis, Kathryn; Amstadter, Ananda B; Ruggiero, Kenneth J

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to utilize a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach in order to improve clinical decision-making for adolescents at risk for the development of psychopathology in the aftermath of a natural disaster. Specifically we assessed theoretically-driven individual, interpersonal, and event-related vulnerability factors to determine which indices were most accurate in forecasting PTSD. Furthermore, we aimed to translate these etiological findings by identifying clinical cut-off recommendations for relevant vulnerability factors. Our study consisted of structured phone-based clinical interviews with 2000 adolescent-parent dyads living within a 5-mile radius of tornados that devastated Joplin, MO, and northern Alabama in Spring 2011. Demographics, tornado incident characteristics, prior trauma, mental health, and family support and conflict were assessed. A subset of youth completed two behavioral assessment tasks online to assess distress tolerance and risk-taking behavior. ROC analyses indicated four variables that significantly improved PTSD diagnostic efficiency: Lifetime depression (AUC = .90), trauma history (AUC = .76), social support (AUC = .70), and family conflict (AUC = .72). Youth were 2-3 times more likely to have PTSD if they had elevated scores on any of these variables. Of note, event-related characteristics (e.g., property damage) were not related to PTSD diagnostic status. The present study adds to the literature by making specific recommendations for empirically-based, efficient disaster-related PTSD assessment for adolescents following a natural disaster. Implications for practice and future trauma-related developmental psychopathology research are discussed.

  18. Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Donald J. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Affective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes -- the "rational" and the "emotional" process. Observed choice is the result of equilibrium in this intrapersonal game. As an example, we present applications of affective decision-making in insurance markets, where the risk perceptions of consumers are endogenous. We derive the axiomatic foundation of affective decision making, and show that affective decision making is ...

  19. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...

  1. Crisis decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holsti, O.R.

    1989-01-01

    This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war

  2. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

  3. Impaired decision making under ambiguity but not under risk in individuals with pathological buying-behavioral and psychophysiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotzke, Patrick; Starcke, Katrin; Pedersen, Anya; Müller, Astrid; Brand, Matthias

    2015-09-30

    Pathological buying (PB) is described as dysfunctional buying behavior, associated with harmful consequences. It is discussed whether decision-making deficits are related to PB, because affected individuals often choose the short-term rewarding option of buying despite persistent negative long-term consequences. We investigated 30 patients suffering from PB and 30 matched control participants with two different decision-making tasks: the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures decisions under ambiguity and involves emotional feedback processing, whereas the Game of Dice Task (GDT) measures decisions under risk and can be solved strategically. Potential emotional and cognitive correlates of decision making were investigated by assessing skin conductance response (SCR) and executive functioning. In comparison to the control participants, the patients showed more disadvantageous decisions under ambiguity in the IGT. These data were supported by the SCR results: patients failed to generate SCRs that usually occur before disadvantageous decisions. The physiological and behavioral performance on decisions under risk and executive functioning did not differ between groups. Thus, deficits in emotional feedback processing might be one potential factor in etiology and pathogenesis of PB and should be considered in theory and treatment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  4. Resource effects of training general practitioners in risk communication skills and shared decision making competences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, David; Longo, M F; Hood, Kerenza; Edwards, Adrian; Elwyn, Glyn

    2004-08-01

    Involving patients more in decisions about their own care requires doctors to be trained in effective ways of communicating information and in developing competences to negotiate levels of patient involvement which are most appropriate for each case. The aim of this study was to determine the cost of such training and identify which service resource variables are subsequently affected. An explanatory cluster randomized crossover trial was carried out which involved training general practitioners (GPs) in the use of risk communication (RC) tools, shared decision making (SDM) competences or both. Continuing care by GPs of patients with one of four chronic conditions (menopausal symptoms, menorrhagia, atrial fibrillation, prostatism) was reviewed before and after training. Cost of training was assessed by prospective monitoring of resources used. Data on prescribing, referrals and investigations were collected via questionnaires to participating practitioners. Data on follow-up GP consultations were extracted from medical records. Three two-level logistic models were performed to investigate the probability of training having an effect on prescribing, referrals and investigations ordered at the review consultation. Training cost pound 1218 per practitioner which increased the cost of a consultation by pound 2.89. Training in SDM or combined with RC significantly affected the probability of a prescription being issued to women with menopausal symptoms and menorrhagia (although RC on its own had no effect) but did not significantly affect prescribing for patients with prostatism or atrial fibrillation. It did not significantly affect the probability of investigations, referrals or follow-up GP visits for any of the conditions. Unless training has a major influence on consultation length, it is unlikely to have any major impacts on cost.

  5. Reasoning and mathematical skills contribute to normatively superior decision making under risk: evidence from the game of dice task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertl, Marie-Theres; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

    2017-08-01

    In this study, we assessed to what extent reasoning improves performance in decision making under risk in a laboratory gambling task (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D). We also investigated to what degree individuals with above average mathematical competence decide better than those with average mathematical competence. Eighty-five participants performed the GDT-D and several numerical tasks. Forty-two individuals were asked to calculate the probabilities and the outcomes associated with the different options of the GDT-D before performing it. The other 43 individuals performed the GDT-D at the beginning of the test session. Both reasoning and mathematical competence had a positive effect on decision making. Different measures of mathematical competence correlated with advantageous performance in decision making. Results suggest that decision making under explicit risk conditions improves when individuals are encouraged to reflect about the contingencies of a decision situation. Interventions based on numerical reasoning may also be useful for patients with difficulties in decision making.

  6. Decision making and imperfection

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2013-01-01

    Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

  7. Horses for courses: risk information and decision making in the regulation of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaudrie, Christian E. H.; Kandlikar, Milind

    2011-01-01

    Despite the widespread commercial use of nanomaterials, regulators currently have a limited ability to characterize and manage risks. There is a paucity of data available on the current production and use of nanomaterials and extreme scientific uncertainty on most aspects of the risk assessment “causal chain.” Regulatory decisions will need to be made in the near-term in the absence formal quantitative risk assessments. The article draws on examples from three different regulatory contexts—baseline data monitoring efforts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Department of Toxic Substances Control, prioritization of risk information in the context of environmental releases, and mitigation of occupational risks—to argue for the use of decision-analytic tools in lieu of formal risk assessment to help regulatory bodies. We advocate a “horses for courses” approach whereby existing analytical tools (such as risk ranking, multi-criteria decision analysis, and “control banding” approaches) might be adapted to regulators’ goals in particular decision contexts. While efforts to build new and modify existing tools are underway, they need greater support from funding and regulatory agencies because innovative approaches are needed for the “extreme” uncertainty problems that nanomaterials pose.

  8. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  9. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  10. Decision Making under Risk Condition in Patients with Parkinson’s Disease: A Behavioural and fMRI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Labudda

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to study whether previously described impairment in decision making under risky conditions in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD is affected by deficits in using information about potential incentives or by processing feedback (in terms of fictitious gains and losses following each decision. Additionally, we studied whether the neural correlates of using explicit information in decision making under risk differ between PD patients and healthy subjects. We investigated ten cognitively intact PD patients and twelve healthy subjects with the Game of Dice Task (GDT to assess risky decision making, and with an fMRI paradigm to analyse the neural correlates of information integration in the deliberative decision phase. Behaviourally, PD patients showed selective impairment in the GDT but not on the fMRI task that did not include a feedback component. Healthy subjects exhibited lateral prefrontal, anterior cingulate and parietal activations when integrating decision-relevant information. Despite similar behavioural patterns on the fMRI task, patients exhibited reduced parietal activation. Behavioural results suggest that PD patients’ deficits in risky decision making are dominated by impaired feedback utilization not compensable by intact cognitive functions. Our fMRI results suggest similarities but also differences in neural correlates when using explicit information for the decision process, potentially indicating different strategy application even if the interfering feedback component is excluded.

  11. The RISAP-study: a complex intervention in risk communication and shared decision-making in general practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Pia; Edwards, Adrian G K; Hansen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    decision satisfaction (Provider Decision Process Assessment Instrument). The patients will receive a questionnaire at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. It includes questions about adherence to chosen treatment (Morisky Compliance Scale), self-rated health (SF-12), enablement (Patient Enablement Instrument...... training are needed. Aim:1) to systematically develop, describe and evaluate a complex intervention comprising a training programme for GPs in risk communication and shared decision-making, 2) to evaluate the effect of the training programme on real-life consultations between GPs and patients with high......), and risk communication and decision-making effectiveness (COMRADE Scale). Prescriptions, contacts to the health services, and cholesterol level will be drawn from the registers.In each group, 12 consultations will be observed and tape-recorded. The patients from these 24 consultations will be interviewed...

  12. MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HENDRIKS, MMWB; DEBOER, JH; SMILDE, AK; DOORNBOS, DA

    1992-01-01

    Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities

  13. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J.; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behav...

  14. Dissociable roles for the basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex in decision-making under risk of punishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Caitlin A; Trotta, Rose T; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

    2015-01-28

    Several neuropsychiatric disorders are associated with abnormal decision-making involving risk of punishment, but the neural basis of this association remains poorly understood. Altered activity in brain systems including the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) can accompany these same disorders, and these structures are implicated in some forms of decision-making. The current study investigated the role of the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Rats were trained in the risky decision-making task (RDT), in which they chose between two levers, one that delivered a small safe reward, and the other that delivered a large reward accompanied by varying risks of footshock punishment. Following training, they received sham or neurotoxic lesions of BLA or OFC, followed by RDT retesting. BLA lesions increased choice of the large risky reward (greater risk-taking) compared to both prelesion performance and sham controls. When reward magnitudes were equated, both BLA lesion and control groups shifted their choice to the safe (no shock) reward lever, indicating that the lesions did not impair punishment sensitivity. In contrast to BLA lesions, OFC lesions significantly decreased risk-taking compared with sham controls, but did not impair discrimination between different reward magnitudes or alter baseline levels of anxiety. Finally, neither lesion significantly affected food-motivated lever pressing under various fixed ratio schedules, indicating that lesion-induced alterations in risk-taking were not secondary to changes in appetitive motivation. Together, these findings indicate distinct roles for the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351368-12$15.00/0.

  15. An Introduction to Decision Making When Uncertainty Is Not Just Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1992-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to events, that is, to sets of possible outcomes. In this paper we give an introduction to this concept and a first contribution to modeling decision making when...... there is uncertainty. We extend the von Neumann- Morgenstern expected utility theory to belief functions....

  16. Decision making regarding multifetal reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe

    2003-01-01

    To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.

  17. Differential Contributions of Nucleus Accumbens Subregions to Cue-Guided Risk/Reward Decision Making and Implementation of Conditional Rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floresco, Stan B; Montes, David R; Tse, Maric M T; van Holstein, Mieke

    2018-02-21

    The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is a key node within corticolimbic circuitry for guiding action selection and cost/benefit decision making in situations involving reward uncertainty. Preclinical studies have typically assessed risk/reward decision making using assays where decisions are guided by internally generated representations of choice-outcome contingencies. Yet, real-life decisions are often influenced by external stimuli that inform about likelihoods of obtaining rewards. How different subregions of the NAc mediate decision making in such situations is unclear. Here, we used a novel assay colloquially termed the "Blackjack" task that models these types of situations. Male Long-Evans rats were trained to choose between one lever that always delivered a one-pellet reward and another that delivered four pellets with different probabilities [either 50% (good-odds) or 12.5% (poor-odds)], which were signaled by one of two auditory cues. Under control conditions, rats selected the large/risky option more often on good-odds versus poor-odds trials. Inactivation of the NAc core caused indiscriminate choice patterns. In contrast, NAc shell inactivation increased risky choice, more prominently on poor-odds trials. Additional experiments revealed that both subregions contribute to auditory conditional discrimination. NAc core or shell inactivation reduced Pavlovian approach elicited by an auditory CS+, yet shell inactivation also increased responding during presentation of a CS-. These data highlight distinct contributions for NAc subregions in decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. The core is crucial for implementation of conditional rules, whereas the shell refines reward seeking by mitigating the allure of larger, unlikely rewards and reducing expression of inappropriate or non-rewarded actions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using external cues to guide decision making is crucial for adaptive behavior. Deficits in cue-guided behavior have been

  18. Trait Emotional Intelligence Is Related to Risk Taking when Adolescents Make Deliberative Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Panno

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Most forms of risky behavior reach their peak during adolescence. A prominent line of research is exploring the relationship between people’s emotional self-efficacy and risk taking, but little is known about this relationship in the cognitive-deliberative domain among adolescents. The main aim of the present study consists in investigating whether trait EI (Emotional Intelligence is positively related to risk taking under predominantly cognitive-deliberative conditions among adolescents. Ninety-four adolescents played the cold version of the Columbia Card Task one month following an assessment of their trait EI. Results showed that trait EI is associated with risk taking under cognitive-deliberative conditions among adolescents. Moreover, the present research showed that trait EI is related to risk taking through the decision makers’ self-motivation. These results provide novel insights into research investigating the connections between emotional intelligence, decision science and adolescence research.

  19. Emotion and decision-making under uncertainty: Physiological arousal predicts increased gambling during ambiguity but not risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FeldmanHall, Oriel; Glimcher, Paul; Baker, Augustus L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2016-10-01

    Uncertainty, which is ubiquitous in decision-making, can be fractionated into known probabilities (risk) and unknown probabilities (ambiguity). Although research has illustrated that individuals more often avoid decisions associated with ambiguity compared to risk, it remains unclear why ambiguity is perceived as more aversive. Here we examine the role of arousal in shaping the representation of value and subsequent choice under risky and ambiguous decisions. To investigate the relationship between arousal and decisions of uncertainty, we measure skin conductance response-a quantifiable measure reflecting sympathetic nervous system arousal-during choices to gamble under risk and ambiguity. To quantify the discrete influences of risk and ambiguity sensitivity and the subjective value of each option under consideration, we model fluctuating uncertainty, as well as the amount of money that can be gained by taking the gamble. Results reveal that although arousal tracks the subjective value of a lottery regardless of uncertainty type, arousal differentially contributes to the computation of value-that is, choice-depending on whether the uncertainty is risky or ambiguous: Enhanced arousal adaptively decreases risk-taking only when the lottery is highly risky but increases risk-taking when the probability of winning is ambiguous (even after controlling for subjective value). Together, this suggests that the role of arousal during decisions of uncertainty is modulatory and highly dependent on the context in which the decision is framed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Management of the geriatric trauma patient at risk of death: therapy withdrawal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trunkey, D D; Cahn, R M; Lenfesty, B; Mullins, R

    2000-01-01

    The management of geriatric injured patients admitted to a trauma center includes the selective decision to provide comfort care only, including withdrawal of therapy, and a choice to not use full application of standard therapies. The decision makers in this process include multiple individuals in addition to the patient. Retrospective review of documentation by 2 blinded reviewers of the cohort of patients over a recent 5-year period (1993-1997). Trauma service of a level I trauma center. A convenience sample of patients aged 65 years and older who died, and whose medical record was available for review. Patients were categorized as having withdrawal of therapy, and documentation in the medical record of who made the assessment decisions and recommendations, and to what extent the processes of care were documented. Among 87 geriatric trauma patients who died, 47 had documentation interpreted as indicating a decision was made to withdraw therapy. In only a few circumstances was the patient capable of actively participating in these decisions. The other individuals involved in recommendations for withdrawal of therapy were, in order of prevalence, the treating trauma surgeon, family members (as proxy reporting the patient's preferences), or a second physician. Documentation regarding the end-of-life decisions was often fragmentary, and in some cases ambiguous. Copies of legal advance directives were rarely available in the medical record, and ethics committee participation was used only once. Withdrawal of therapy is a common event in the terminal care of geriatric injured patients. The process for reaching a decision regarding withdrawal of therapy is complex because in most circumstances patients' injuries preclude their full participation. Standards for documentation of essential information, including patients' preferences and decision-making ability, should be developed to improve the process and assist with recording these complicated decisions that often

  1. Decision making in urological surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

    2012-06-01

    Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

  2. Involving patients in decision making and communicating risk: a longitudinal evaluation of doctors' attitudes and confidence during a randomized trial.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Important barriers to the wider implementation of shared decision making (SDM) and risk communication in practice remain. The attitudes of professionals undergoing training in these approaches may inform how to overcome these barriers, but there are few such data yet available. AIM: To

  3. Oil industry decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, T.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil and gas business is undergoing a significant restructuring. In order to maintain control of our own destiny and succeed in an increasingly competitive business environment, the industry must set goals which are consistent with its continued success and focus on those goals in every aspect of its strategic management. By applying an approach to decision making which focuses on the achievement of the key goals required for success at every decision point and systematic follow-up, a firm can greatly increase its ability to succeed in the business environment of the future

  4. Responsive Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    , the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence...

  5. Shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godolphin, William

    2009-01-01

    Shared decision-making has been called the crux of patient-centred care and identified as a key part of change for improved quality and safety in healthcare. However, it rarely happens, is hard to do and is not taught - for many reasons. Talking with patients about options is not embedded in the attitudes or communication skills training of most healthcare professionals. Information tools such as patient decision aids, personal health records and the Internet will help to shift this state, as will policy that drives patient and public involvement in healthcare delivery and training.

  6. To admit or not to admit? The effect of framing on risk assessment decision making in psychiatrists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferies-Sewell, Kiri; Sharma, Shivani; Gale, Tim M; Hawley, Chris J; Georgiou, George J; Laws, Keith R

    2015-02-01

    The way that information is presented is well known to induce a range of biases in human decision tasks. Little research exists on framing effects in psychiatric decision making, but it is reasonable to assume that psychiatrists are not immune and, if so, there may be implications for the welfare of patients, staff and the general public. To investigate whether presentation of risk information in different formats (frequency, percentage and semantic) influences inpatient admission decisions by psychiatrists. Six-hundred seventy-eight general adult psychiatrists read a short clinical vignette presenting a case scenario of a patient presenting for inpatient admission. One of four condition questions followed the vignette, incorporating either numerical or percentage probabilities and the semantic labels "high" and "low" risk. In each condition, the actual risk was identical, but the way it was presented varied. The decision to admit the patient or not was recorded and compared across conditions. More individuals chose to admit the patient when risk information was presented in numerical form (X2 = 7.43, p = 0.006) and with the semantic label "high" (X2 = 7.27, p = 0.007). Presentation of risk information may influence decision making in psychiatrists. This has important implications for mental health clinical practice where clinicians are required to interpret probabilistic information within their daily work.

  7. Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madeleine E Sharp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. OBJECTIVE: We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. DESIGN/METHODS: Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. RESULTS: Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. CONCLUSIONS: This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

  8. Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

    2012-01-01

    Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

  9. Risk-based decision-making regarding mixed waste disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberds, W.J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on an efficient approach that has been developed for making rational and defensible decisions among a variety of options (e.g., remedial actions, engineered barriers designs/operational controls, inventory limitations, site investigations and research) for mixed-waste disposal systems, which consist of multiple interacting sites (active, inactive and/or future) with multiple pathways. Such decisions are based on maximizing the satisfaction of identified objectives (including the reliability vis a vis specified criteria), explicitly considering tradeoffs among objectives as well as uncertainties in the consequences of any option

  10. Decreased modulation by the risk level on the brain activation during decision making in adolescents with internet gaming disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin eQi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Greater impulse and risk-taking and reduced decision-making ability were reported as the main behavioral impairments in individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD, which has become a serious mental health issue worldwide. However, it is not clear to date how the risk level modulates brain activity during the decision-making process in IGD individuals. In this study, 23 adolescents with IGD and 24 healthy controls (HCs without IGD were recruited, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART was used in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI experiment to evaluate the modulation of the risk level (the probability of balloon explosion on brain activity during risky decisionmaking in IGD adolescents. Reduced modulation of the risk level on the activation of the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC during the active BART was found in IGD group compared to the HCs. In the IGD group, there was a significant negative correlation between the risk-related DLPFC activation during the active BART and the Barratt impulsivity scale (BIS-11 scores, which were significantly higher in IGD group compared with the HCs. Our study demonstrated that, as a critical decision-making-related brain region, the right DLPFC is less sensitive to risk in IGD adolescents compared with the HCs, which may contribute to the higher impulsivity level in IGD adolescents.

  11. Human Factors Influencing Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-07-01

    and Einhom (1991); Zeelenberg et al. (1997). This environmental context also makes it difficult to associate measured personality traits with specific... Zeelenberg and Beattie5 (1997): People are motivated to minimize post-decision regret. As a result people can become risk averse or risk seeking...188-201), Ablex, Norwood NJ, 1993. 5 Zeelenberg M. and J. Beattie. "Consequences of regret aversion 2: additional evidence for effects of feedback on

  12. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  13. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

    2016-12-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  14. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  15. "It was an Emotional Baby": Previvors' Family Planning Decision-Making Styles about Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah; Rauscher, Emily A

    2017-12-01

    Women who test positive for a BRCA genetic mutation are at an increased risk for developing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer and have a 50% chance of passing on their genetic mutation to their children. The purpose of this study was to investigate how women who test positive for a BRCA mutation but have not been diagnosed with cancer make decisions regarding family planning. Analysis of interviews with 20 women revealed they engage in logical and emotional decision-making styles. Although women want to be logical to reduce their hereditary cancer risk, emotions often complicate their decision-making. Women experience fear and worry about a future cancer diagnosis, yet also desire to create a family, particularly having children through natural conception. That is, women negotiate having preventative surgeries in a logical doctor-recommended timeframe but also organize those decisions around emotional desires of motherhood. Overall, this study demonstrates the complex decisions women who test positive for a BRCA mutation must make in regards to genetic testing timing, family planning, and overall quality of life.

  16. Robust Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq

    2010-07-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.

  17. Depression and Anxiety During Pregnancy: Evaluating the Literature in Support of Clinical Risk-Benefit Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalke, Katharine Baratz; Wenzel, Amy; Kim, Deborah R

    2016-06-01

    Depression and anxiety during pregnancy are common, and patients and providers are faced with complex decisions regarding various treatment modalities. A structured discussion of the risks and benefits of options with the patient and her support team is recommended to facilitate the decision-making process. This clinically focused review, with emphasis on the last 3 years of published study data, evaluates the major risk categories of medication treatments, namely pregnancy loss, physical malformations, growth impairment, behavioral teratogenicity, and neonatal toxicity. Nonpharmacological treatment options, including neuromodulation and psychotherapy, are also briefly reviewed. Specific recommendations, drawn from the literature and the authors' clinical experience, are also offered to help guide the clinician in decision-making.

  18. Evaluating the impact of HIA on urban reconstruction decision-making. Who manages whose risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekker, Marleen P.M.; Putters, Kim; Grinten, Tom E.D. van der

    2005-01-01

    Practitioners and academic researchers increasingly look to evaluation of health impact assessment (HIA) to improve its practice, its efficiency and its legitimacy. Evaluation is also used to account to policy-makers, who express doubts that the benefits of HIA justify its costs. Until recently evaluation of HIA focused on instrument design and procedures but now the focus needs to shift to analysis of the interaction of HIA and decision-making. Multiple case studies have been applied to identify the conditions in which HIA produces the desired benefits. These studies used analytical concepts derived from the literature on evaluation, knowledge utilization, science of sociology and knowledge management. This paper describes a case study in which the strategic motives of the decision-makers affected the impact of an HIA. This HIA comprised of a quantitative environmental model 'City and Environment' that was used to assess environmental health impacts of an urban reconstruction plan in a Dutch city. The evaluation of the HIA shows that the decision to follow the recommendations of the HIA was part of a damage control strategy. The more HIA goals deviate from the policy problem and the less HIA is embedded in institutional procedures, then the more HIA impact will be subject to strategic decision-making behaviour. Appropriate cognitive and social strategies are needed to avoid 'negative learning' in those the HIA seeks to influence

  19. Abnormal decision-making in generalized anxiety disorder: Aversion of risk or stimulus-reinforcement impairment?

    OpenAIRE

    Teng, Cindy; Otero, Marcela; Geraci, Marilla; Blair, R.J.R.; Pine, Daniel S.; Grillon, Christian; Blair, Karina S.

    2016-01-01

    There is preliminary data indicating that patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) show impairment on decision-making tasks requiring the appropriate representation of reinforcement value. The current study aimed to extend this literature using the passive avoidance (PA) learning task, where the participant has to learn to respond to stimuli that engender reward and avoid responding to stimuli that engender punishment. Six stimuli engendering reward and six engendering punishment are ...

  20. Assigning a volcano alert level: negotiating uncertainty, risk, and complexity in decision-making processes

    OpenAIRE

    Carina J Fearnley

    2013-01-01

    A volcano alert level system (VALS) is used to communicate warning information from scientists to civil authorities managing volcanic hazards. This paper provides the first evaluation of how the decision-making process behind the assignation of an alert level, using forecasts of volcanic behaviour, operates in practice . Using interviews conducted from 2007 to 2009 at five USGS-managed (US Geological Survey) volcano observatories (Alaska, Cascades, Hawaii, Long Valley, and Yellowstone), two k...

  1. Balancing Caution and Greed: Neurometric Responses to Decision-Making under Escalating Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meder, David; Haagensen, Brian Numelin; Morville, Tobias

    Introduction: Across a diversity of environments from foraging to financial investment, agents face escalating potential reward and risk (the first being the motivation for accepting the second) and need to retrieve relevant information from the environment in order to update which action to take......-probability reflects a context of increasing decision-conflict given the current sum, the prediction error signal the current gain given the stake put at risk at the previous trial. A high prediction error reflects a salient event, namely a better-than-expected outcome on top of a high stake, requiring a deliberate...

  2. Developmental changes in decision making under risk: The role of executive functions and reasoning abilities in 8- to 19-year-old decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; García-Arias, María; García-Villamisar, Domingo; Cabanyes-Truffino, Javier; Brand, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents often tend toward risky decisions despite explicit knowledge about the potential negative consequences. This phenomenon has been suggested to be associated with the immaturity of brain areas involved in cognitive control functions. Particularly, "frontal lobe functions," such as executive functions and reasoning, mature until young adulthood and are thought to be involved in age-related changes in decision making under explicit risk conditions. We investigated 112 participants, aged 8-19 years, with a frequently used task assessing decisions under risk, the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Additionally, we administered the Modified Card Sorting Test assessing executive functioning (categorization, cognitive flexibility, and strategy maintenance) as well as the Ravens Progressive Matrices assessing reasoning. The results showed that risk taking in the GDT decreased with increasing age and this effect was not moderated by reasoning but by executive functions: Particularly, young persons with weak executive functioning showed very risky decision making. Thus, the individual maturation of executive functions, associated with areas in the prefrontal cortex, seems to be an important factor in young peoples' behavior in risky decision-making situations.

  3. Making training decisions proactively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, R.F.

    1988-01-01

    The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities

  4. Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2008-07-01

    The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

  5. Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning — the “jumping to conclusion” bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). Methods We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. Results We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Limitations Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not pre-psychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. Conclusion As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk. PMID:25622039

  6. Decision Support and Shared Decision Making About Active Surveillance Versus Active Treatment Among Men Diagnosed with Low-Risk Prostate Cancer: a Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Ronald E; Leader, Amy E; Censits, Jean Hoffman; Trabulsi, Edouard J; Keith, Scott W; Petrich, Anett M; Quinn, Anna M; Den, Robert B; Hurwitz, Mark D; Lallas, Costas D; Hegarty, Sarah E; Dicker, Adam P; Zeigler-Johnson, Charnita M; Giri, Veda N; Ayaz, Hasan; Gomella, Leonard G

    2018-02-01

    This study aimed to explore the effects of a decision support intervention (DSI) and shared decision making (SDM) on knowledge, perceptions about treatment, and treatment choice among men diagnosed with localized low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). At a multidisciplinary clinic visit, 30 consenting men with localized low-risk PCa completed a baseline survey, had a nurse-mediated online DS session to clarify preference for active surveillance (AS) or active treatment (AT), and met with clinicians for SDM. Participants also completed a follow-up survey at 30 days. We assessed change in treatment knowledge, decisional conflict, and perceptions and identified predictors of AS. At follow-up, participants exhibited increased knowledge (p decision. Perceived support of the decision facilitated patient choice of AS.

  7. Consumer Product Data for Exposure Screening, Modeling and Prioritization, and Risk-based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will provide an overview of the research efforts underway in EPA ORD's Chemicals for Safety and Sustainability research program which relate to providing information to prioritize chemicals in consumer products based on risk. It also describes effort to make dat...

  8. Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

    2016-01-01

    To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  10. Making a good group decision (low risk) in Singapore under an environment that has time and cost constraints

    OpenAIRE

    Loo, Sok Hiang Candy

    2014-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Organizations in Singapore operate in a highly competitive and fast-paced work environment that presents decision-making challenges at the individual, group, and organization levels. A key problem is achieving good decision fitness within time and cost constraints. While many decision-making theories and processes address the fundamental decision-making process, there is limited research on improving the group decision-making framework...

  11. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Gilbert

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, quality of healthcare that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 mo. and aged (23-25 mo. male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (1 food pellet and a large but uncertain reward (2 food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100% to 0%. Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the smaller but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for costs (i.e., delay, probability. These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct neural mechanisms that can impact cost

  12. Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Ryan J; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L

    2011-01-01

    Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 months) and aged (23-25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost-benefit decision-making.

  13. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. A risk based model supporting long term maintenance and reinvestment strategy decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sand, Kjell; Montard, Julien; Tremoen, Tord H.

    2010-02-15

    This Technical Report is a product from the project Risk-Based Distribution System Asset Management (short: RISK DSAM) - Work Package 3 Risk exposure on company/strategic level. In the report a concept for portfolio distribution system asset management is presented. The approach comprises four main steps: 1. Decide the asset base. 2. Divide the asset base into relevant archetypes. 3. Develop or select relevant maintenance and reinvestment strategies for the different archetypes. 4. Estimate risks and costs for each archetype for the relevant strategies. For the different steps guidelines are given and a proposal for implementation of the concept is given in terms of a proposed IT system architecture.To evaluate the feasibility of such a concept, a prototype was developed in by using Visual Basic macros in Excel using real technical data from a small DSO. The experience from using the prototype shows that the concept is realistic. All assets are included and depending of the ambition of the risk analysis both simple simulation models and more advanced might be embedded. Presentations of the concept for a utility engineers have receive positive feedback indicating that the concept is regarded as a practical way to develop risk based asset management strategies for the asset fleet. It should be noted that the concept should be applied on a company strategic level and is thus not designed to be applied for a specific project or asset decisions. For this, more detailed models with area specific information, topology etc. are needed. (Author)

  15. Hurricane risk assessment to rollback or ride out a cost versus loss decision making approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlman, Richard A.

    1992-01-01

    The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

  16. The neural basis of loss aversion in decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, Sabrina M; Fox, Craig R; Trepel, Christopher; Poldrack, Russell A

    2007-01-26

    People typically exhibit greater sensitivity to losses than to equivalent gains when making decisions. We investigated neural correlates of loss aversion while individuals decided whether to accept or reject gambles that offered a 50/50 chance of gaining or losing money. A broad set of areas (including midbrain dopaminergic regions and their targets) showed increasing activity as potential gains increased. Potential losses were represented by decreasing activity in several of these same gain-sensitive areas. Finally, individual differences in behavioral loss aversion were predicted by a measure of neural loss aversion in several regions, including the ventral striatum and prefrontal cortex.

  17. Maternal bodies and medicines: a commentary on risk and decision-making of pregnant and breastfeeding women and health professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDonald Karalyn

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The perceived risk/benefit balance of prescribed and over-the-counter (OTC medicine, as well as complementary therapies, will significantly impact on an individual’s decision-making to use medicine. For women who are pregnant or breastfeeding, this weighing of risks and benefits becomes immensely more complex because they are considering the effect on two bodies rather than one. Indeed the balance may lie in opposite directions for the mother and baby/fetus. The aim of this paper is to generate a discussion that focuses on the complexity around risk, responsibility and decision-making of medicine use by pregnant and breastfeeding women. We will also consider the competing discourses that pregnant and breastfeeding women encounter when making decisions about medicine. Discussion Women rely not only on biomedical information and the expert knowledge of their health care professionals but on their own experiences and cultural understandings as well. When making decisions about medicines, pregnant and breastfeeding women are influenced by their families, partners and their cultural societal norms and expectations. Pregnant and breastfeeding women are influenced by a number of competing discourses. “Good” mothers should manage and avoid any risks, thereby protecting their babies from harm and put their children’s needs before their own – they should not allow toxins to enter the body. On the other hand, “responsible” women take and act on medical advice – they should take the medicine as directed by their health professional. This is the inherent conflict in medicine use for maternal bodies. Summary The increased complexity involved when one body’s actions impact the body of another – as in the pregnant and lactating body – has received little acknowledgment. We consider possibilities for future research and methodologies. We argue that considering the complexity of issues for maternal bodies can improve our

  18. The characteristics of decision making, potential to take risks, and personality of college students with Internet addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chih-Hung; Hsiao, Sigmund; Liu, Gin-Chung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Yang, Ming-Jen; Yen, Cheng-Fang

    2010-01-30

    This study aimed to identify risk factors involved in Internet addiction. A total of 216 college students (132 males and 84 females) were given the following: (a) the diagnostic interview for Internet addiction, (b) the Iowa gambling test for decision-making deficits, (c) the Balloon Analog Risk Test (BART) to assess risk-taking tendencies, and (d) the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire (TPQ) for personality characteristics. The results revealed the following: (a) 49% of males and 17% of females were addicted, (b) the addicted students tended to select more advantageous cards in the last 40 cards of the Iowa test, indicating better decision making, (c) no difference was found for the BART, indicating that addicted subjects were not more likely to engage in risk-taking behaviors and (d) TPQ scores showed lower reward dependence (RD) and higher novelty seeking (NS) for the addicts. Their higher performance on the Iowa gambling test differentiates the Internet addiction group from the substance use and pathologic gambling groups that have been shown to be deficient in decision making on the Iowa test. Thus, students that fit these characteristics should be closely monitored to prevent Internet addiction.

  19. Proposing a model for safety risk assessment in the construction industry using gray multi-criterion decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Abootorabi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Statistical Report of the Social Security Organization indicate that among the various industries, the construction industry has the highest number of work-related accidents so that in addition to frequency, it has high intensity, as well. On the other hand, a large number of human resources are working in this whish shows they necessity for paying special attention to these workers. Therefore, risk assessment of the safety in the construction industry is an effective step in this regard. In this study, a method for ranking safety risks in conditions of low number of samples and uncertainty is presented, using gray multi-criterion decision-making. .Material and Method: In this study, we first identified the factors affecting the occurrence of hazards in the construction industry. Then, appropriate for ranking the risks were determined and the problem was defined as a multi-criterion decision-making. In order to weight the criteria and to evaluate alternatives based on each criterion, gray numbers were used. In the last stage, the problem was solved using the gray possibility degree. .Results: The results show that the method of gray multi-criterion decision-making is an effective method for ranking risks in situations of low samples compared with other methods of MCDM. .Conclusion: The proposed method is preferred to fuzzy methods and statistics in uncertain and low sample size, due to simple calculations and no need to define the membership function.

  20. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior.

  1. Critical thinking about adverse drug effects: lessons from the psychology of risk and medical decision-making for clinical psychopharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nierenberg, Andrew A; Smoller, Jordan W; Eidelman, Polina; Wu, Yelena P; Tilley, Claire A

    2008-01-01

    Systematic biases in decision-making have been well characterized in medical and nonmedical fields but mostly ignored in clinical psychopharmacology. The purpose of this paper is to sensitize clinicians who prescribe psychiatric drugs to the issues of the psychology of risk, especially as they pertain to the risk of side effects. Specifically, the present analysis focuses on heuristic organization and framing effects that create cognitive biases in medical practice. Our purpose is to increase the awareness of how pharmaceutical companies may influence physicians by framing the risk of medication side effects to favor their products. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Risk estimation and decision making: the health effects on populations of exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1982-01-01

    Presented is a background for an understanding of the potential health effects in populations exposed to low-level radiation. Discussed is the knowledge about the health effects of low-level radiation. Comments on how the risks of radiation-induced cancer and genetically-related ill-health in man may be estimated, the sources of the scientific and epidemiological data, the dose-response models used, and the uncertainties which limit precise estimates of excess risks from radiation. Also discussed are the implications of numerical risk estimation for radiation protection and decision-making for public health policy

  3. The Impact of Sexual Arousal on Sexual Risk-Taking and Decision-Making in Men and Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakoon-Sparling, Shayna; Cramer, Kenneth M; Shuper, Paul A

    2016-01-01

    Sexual arousal has emerged as an important contextual feature in sexual encounters that can impact safer-sex decision-making. We conducted two experiments that investigated the effects of sexual arousal among male and female participants. Experiment 1 (N = 144) examined the impact of sexual around on sexual health decision-making. Sexually explicit and neutral video clips as well as hypothetical romantic scenarios were used to evaluate the effects of sexual arousal on sexual risk-taking intentions. Men and women who reported higher levels of sexual arousal also displayed greater intentions to participate in risky sexual behavior (e.g., unprotected sex with a new sex partner). Experiment 2 (N = 122) examined the impact of sexual arousal on general risk-taking, using the same videos clips as in Experiment 1 and a modified version of a computerized Blackjack card game. Participants were offered a chance to make either a risky play or a safe play during ambiguous conditions. Increased sexual arousal in Experiment 2 was associated with impulsivity and a greater willingness to make risky plays in the Blackjack game. These findings suggest that, in situations where there are strong sexually visceral cues, both men and women experiencing strong sexual arousal may have lower inhibitions and may experience impaired decision-making. This phenomenon may have an impact during sexual encounters and may contribute to a failure to use appropriate prophylactic protection.

  4. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  5. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J.; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behavior and its underlying psychological factors, as well as to critically examine current regulations on financial behavior. PMID:28203215

  7. Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behavior and its underlying psychological factors, as well as to critically examine current regulations on financial behavior.

  8. Abnormal decision-making in generalized anxiety disorder: Aversion of risk or stimulus-reinforcement impairment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Cindy; Otero, Marcela; Geraci, Marilla; Blair, R J R; Pine, Daniel S; Grillon, Christian; Blair, Karina S

    2016-03-30

    There is preliminary data indicating that patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) show impairment on decision-making tasks requiring the appropriate representation of reinforcement value. The current study aimed to extend this literature using the passive avoidance (PA) learning task, where the participant has to learn to respond to stimuli that engender reward and avoid responding to stimuli that engender punishment. Six stimuli engendering reward and six engendering punishment are presented once per block for 10 blocks of trials. Thirty-nine medication-free patients with GAD and 29 age-, IQ and gender matched healthy comparison individuals performed the task. In addition, indexes of social functioning as assessed by the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale were obtained to allow for correlational analyzes of potential relations between cognitive and social impairments. The results revealed a Group-by-Error Type-by-Block interaction; patients with GAD committed significantly more commission (passive avoidance) errors than comparison individuals in the later blocks (blocks 7,8, and 9). In addition, the extent of impairment on these blocks was associated with their functional impairment as measured by the GAF scale. These results link GAD with anomalous decision-making and indicate that a potential problem in reinforcement representation may contribute to the severity of expression of their disorder. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  9. Perceived social risk in medical decision-making for physical child abuse: a mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Heather T; Campbell, Kristine A; Page, Kent; Cook, Lawrence J; Bardsley, Tyler; Olson, Lenora M

    2017-12-22

    The medical literature reports differential decision-making for children with suspected physical abuse based on race and socioeconomic status. Differential evaluation may be related to differences of risk indicators in these populations or differences in physicians' perceptions of abuse risk. Our objective was to understand the contribution of the child's social ecology to child abuse pediatricians' perception of abuse risk and to test whether risk perception influences diagnostic decision-making. Thirty-two child abuse pediatrician participants prospectively contributed 746 consultations from for children referred for physical abuse evaluation (2009-2013). Participants entered consultations to a web-based interface. Participants noted their perception of child race, family SES, abuse diagnosis. Participants rated their perception of social risk for abuse and diagnostic certainty on a 1-100 scale. Consultations (n = 730) meeting inclusion criteria were qualitatively analyzed for social risk indicators, social and non-social cues. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we examined the associations of social risk indicators with participant social risk perception. We reversed social risk indicators in 102 cases whilst leaving all injury mechanism and medical information unchanged. Participants reviewed these reversed cases and recorded their social risk perception, diagnosis and diagnostic certainty. After adjustment for physician characteristics and social risk indicators, social risk perception was highest in the poorest non-minority families (24.9 points, 95%CI: 19.2, 30.6) and minority families (17.9 points, 95%CI, 12.8, 23.0). Diagnostic certainty and perceived social risk were associated: certainty increased as social risk perception increased (Spearman correlation 0.21, p < 0.001) in probable abuse cases; certainty decreased as risk perception increased (Spearman correlation (-)0.19, p = 0.003) in probable not abuse cases. Diagnostic decisions changed

  10. Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

    2016-04-01

    This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

  11. Using cost/risk uncertainty spheres to make better environmental restoration decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shangraw, R.F.; Cheney, C.S.; Shangraw, W.R.

    1994-01-01

    The process of balancing cost expenditures and risk reductions during environmental restoration (ER) activities (and as part of other environmental programs such as waste management and facility transition) is the critical policy decision facing DOE site decisionmakers and associated stakeholders (including regulators). The ground rules for this process are specified formally in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, as amended, the subsequent regulations (e.g., National Contingency Plan) and policies that EPA and State agencies have issued to implement these programs, and (increasingly) interagency agreements and orders. Clearly, as Federal resources to meet environmental commitments become more constrained, cost and risk management tradeoffs will become even more needed and their results pronounced

  12. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

    2013-06-01

    Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Levels of uncertainty, decision making and risk communication: the siting of nuclear waste in France and the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poumadere, M.

    1999-01-01

    The social demand for increased risk control is considered here as it applies to nuclear waste management. Britain's Sellafield Repository Project and France's Mediation Mission to site underground research laboratories are compared. While both management approaches show evolution away from an authoritarian model of decision making and towards implementation of a more socially responsive model, distinct methods of dealing with scientific and social uncertainty appear as well. (author)

  14. Levels of uncertainty, decision making and risk communication: the siting of nuclear waste in France and the United Kingdom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poumadere, M

    1999-11-01

    The social demand for increased risk control is considered here as it applies to nuclear waste management. Britain`s Sellafield Repository Project and France`s Mediation Mission to site underground research laboratories are compared. While both management approaches show evolution away from an authoritarian model of decision making and towards implementation of a more socially responsive model, distinct methods of dealing with scientific and social uncertainty appear as well. (author)

  15. Strategic Assessment of Risk and Risk Tolerance (StARRT) framework for return-to-play decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrier, Ian

    2015-10-01

    The sport medicine clinician is faced with return-to-play (RTP) decisions for every patient who wants to return to activity. The complex interaction of factors related to history, physical examination, testing, activity and baseline characteristics can make RTP decision-making challenging. Further, when reasoning is not explicit, unnecessary conflict can arise among clinicians themselves, or among clinicians and patients. This conflict can have negative health consequences for the patient. In 2010, a transparent framework for RTP decisions was proposed. However, some have identified limitations to the framework and found difficulties in its implementation. This paper presents a revised framework that addresses the limitations, and provides concrete examples of how to apply it in simple and complex cases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Why teens take risks ... : a neurocognitive analysis of developmental changes and individual differences in decision-making under risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leijenhorst, Linda van

    2010-01-01

    The research described in this thesis aimed to gain insight in risky behavior in adolescence, by examining the development of decision-making in relation to brain development. Chapter 1 describes two existing possible explanations for adolescent risky behavior, the first explanation focuses on the

  17. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  18. Risk-informed decision-making analysis for the electrical raceway fire barrier systems on a BWR-4 plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ching-Hui; Lin, Tsu-Jen; Kao, Tsu-Mu; Chen, Chyn-Rong

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a risk-informed decision-making approach used to resolve the fire barrier issue in a BWR-4 nuclear plant where Appendix R separation requirements cannot be met without installing additional fire protection features such as electrical raceway fire barrier system. The related risk measures in CDF (core damage frequency) and LERF (large early release frequency) of the fire barrier issue can be determined by calculating the difference in plant risks between various alternative cases and that met the requirement of the Appendix R. In some alternative cases, additional early-detection and fast-response fire suppression systems are suggested. In some other cases, cable re-routing of some improper layout of non-safety related cables are required. Sets of fire scenarios are re-evaluated more detailed by reviewing the cable damage impact for the BWR-4 plant. The fire hazard model, COMPBRM III-e, is used in this study and the dominant results in risk measures are benchmarked with the CFD code, FDS 2.0, to ensure that the risk impact of fire barrier is estimated accurately in the risk-informed decision making. The traditional deterministic qualitative methods, such as defense-in-depth, safety margin and post-fire safety shutdown capability are also proceeded. The value-impact analysis for proposed alternatives of fire wrapping required by Appendix R has been completed for technical basis of the exemption on Appendix R application. The outcome of the above analysis should be in compliance with the regulatory guidelines (RG) 1.174 and 1.189 for the applications in the risk-informed decision-making of the fire wrapping issues. (author)

  19. ZNF804A variants confer risk for heroin addiction and affect decision making and gray matter volume in heroin abusers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yan; Zhao, Li-Yan; Wang, Gui-Bin; Yue, Wei-Hua; He, Yong; Shu, Ni; Lin, Qi-Xiang; Wang, Fan; Li, Jia-Li; Chen, Na; Wang, Hui-Min; Kosten, Thomas R; Feng, Jia-Jia; Wang, Jun; Tang, Yu-De; Liu, Shu-Xue; Deng, Gui-Fa; Diao, Gan-Huan; Tan, Yun-Long; Han, Hong-Bin; Lin, Lu; Shi, Jie

    2016-05-01

    Drug addiction shares common neurobiological pathways and risk genes with other psychiatric diseases, including psychosis. One of the commonly identified risk genes associated with broad psychosis has been ZNF804A. We sought to test whether psychosis risk variants in ZNF804A increase the risk of heroin addiction by modulating neurocognitive performance and gray matter volume (GMV) in heroin addiction. Using case-control genetic analysis, we compared the distribution of ZNF804A variants (genotype and haplotype) in 1035 heroin abusers and 2887 healthy subjects. We also compared neurocognitive performance (impulsivity, global cognitive ability and decision-making ability) in 224 subjects and GMV in 154 subjects based on the ZNF804A variants. We found significant differences in the distribution of ZNF804A intronic variants (rs1344706 and rs7597593) allele and haplotype frequencies between the heroin and control groups. Decision-making impairment was worse in heroin abusers who carried the ZNF804A risk allele and haplotype. Subjects who carried more risk alleles and haplotypes of ZNF804A had greater GMV in the bilateral insular cortex, right temporal cortex and superior parietal cortex. The interaction between heroin addiction and ZNF804A variants affected GMV in the left sensorimotor cortex. Our findings revealed several ZNF804A variants that were significantly associated with the risk of heroin addiction, and these variants affected decision making and GMV in heroin abusers compared with controls. The precise neural mechanisms that underlie these associations are unknown, which requires future investigations of the effects of ZNF804A on both dopamine neurotransmission and the relative increases in the volume of various brain areas. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Decision-making by a soaring bird: time, energy and risk considerations at different spatio-temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluhr, Julie; Horvitz, Nir; Sarrazin, François; Hatzofe, Ohad

    2016-01-01

    Natural selection theory suggests that mobile animals trade off time, energy and risk costs with food, safety and other pay-offs obtained by movement. We examined how birds make movement decisions by integrating aspects of flight biomechanics, movement ecology and behaviour in a hierarchical framework investigating flight track variation across several spatio-temporal scales. Using extensive global positioning system and accelerometer data from Eurasian griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) in Israel and France, we examined soaring–gliding decision-making by comparing inbound versus outbound flights (to or from a central roost, respectively), and these (and other) home-range foraging movements (up to 300 km) versus long-range movements (longer than 300 km). We found that long-range movements and inbound flights have similar features compared with their counterparts: individuals reduced journey time by performing more efficient soaring–gliding flight, reduced energy expenditure by flapping less and were more risk-prone by gliding more steeply between thermals. Age, breeding status, wind conditions and flight altitude (but not sex) affected time and energy prioritization during flights. We therefore suggest that individuals facing time, energy and risk trade-offs during movements make similar decisions across a broad range of ecological contexts and spatial scales, presumably owing to similarity in the uncertainty about movement outcomes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Moving in a moving medium: new perspectives on flight’. PMID:27528787

  1. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.

  2. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

  3. Acceptability, acceptance and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerschott, H.

    2002-01-01

    There is a fundamental difference between the acceptability of a civilizatory or societal risk and the acceptability of the decision-making process that leads to a civilizatory or societal risk. The analysis of individual risk decisions - regarding who, executes when which indisputably hazardous, unhealthy or dangerous behaviour under which circumstances - is not helpful in finding solutions for the political decisions at hand in Germany concerning nuclear energy in particular or energy in general. The debt for implementation of any technology, in the sense of making the technology a success in terms of broad acceptance and general utilisation, lies with the particular industry involved. Regardless of the technology, innovation research identifies the implementation phase as most critical to the success of any innovation. In this sense, nuclear technology is at best still an innovation, because the implementation has not yet been completed. Fear and opposition to innovation are ubiquitous. Even the economy - which is often described as 'rational' - is full of this resistance. Innovation has an impact on the pivotal point between stability, the presupposition for the successful execution of decisions already taken and instability, which includes insecurity, but is also necessary for the success of further development. By definition, innovations are beyond our sphere of experience; not at the level of reliability and trust yet to come. Yet they are evaluated via the simplifying heuristics for making decisions proven not only to be necessary and useful, but also accurate in the familiar. The 'settlement of the debt of implementation', the accompanying communication, the decision-making procedures concerning the regulation of averse effects of the technology, but also the tailoring of the new technology or service itself must be directed to appropriate target groups. But the group often aimed at in the nuclear debate, the group, which largely determines political

  4. Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-12-07

    Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age

  5. Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

    2017-06-01

    Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

  6. Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

    2014-01-01

    Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

  7. Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas C Drichoutis

    Full Text Available Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

  8. Common basis of establishing safety standards and other safety decision-making levels for different sources of health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.

    2002-01-01

    Current approaches in establishing safety standards and other decision-making levels for different sources of health risk are critically analysed. To have a common basis for this decision-making a specific risk index R is recommended. In the common sense R is quantitatively defined as LLE caused by the annual exposure to the risk source considered: R = annual exposure, damage (LLE) from the exposure unit. This common definition is also rewritten in specific forms for a set of different risk sources (ionising radiation, chemical pollutants, etc): for different risk sources the exposure can be measured with different quantities (the probability of death, the exposure dose, etc.). R is relative LLE: LLE in years referred to 1 year under the risk. The dimension of this value is [year/year]. In the statistical sense R is conditionally the share of the year, which is lost due to exposure to a risk source during this year. In this sense R can be called as the relative damage. Really lifetime years are lost after the exposure. R can be in some conditional sense considered as a dimensionless quantity. General safety standards R n for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index: R n = 0.0007 and 0.01 accordingly. Secondary safety standards are derived for a number of risk sources (ionising radiation, environmental chemical pollutants, etc). Values of R n are chosen in such a way that to have the secondary radiation BSS being equivalent to the current one's. Other general and derived levels for safety decision-making are also proposed including the de-minimus levels. Their possible dependence on the national or regional health-demographic data (HDD) is considered. Such issues as the ways of the integration and averaging of risk indices considered through the national or regional HDD for different risk sources and the use of non-threshold linear exposure - response relationships for ionising radiation and chemical pollutants are analysed

  9. Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

    2015-01-01

    We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble) and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices) within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk, and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning. We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61-80 years old) were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic decision-making for

  10. Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoanna Arlina Kurnianingsih

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated how adult aging specifically alters economic decision-making, focusing on examining alterations in uncertainty preferences (willingness to gamble and choice strategies (what gamble information influences choices within both the gains and losses domains. Within each domain, participants chose between certain monetary outcomes and gambles with uncertain outcomes. We examined preferences by quantifying how uncertainty modulates choice behavior as if altering the subjective valuation of gambles. We explored age-related preferences for two types of uncertainty, risk and ambiguity. Additionally, we explored how aging may alter what information participants utilize to make their choices by comparing the relative utilization of maximizing and satisficing information types through a choice strategy metric. Maximizing information was the ratio of the expected value of the two options, while satisficing information was the probability of winning.We found age-related alterations of economic preferences within the losses domain, but no alterations within the gains domain. Older adults (OA; 61 to 80 years old were significantly more uncertainty averse for both risky and ambiguous choices. OA also exhibited choice strategies with decreased use of maximizing information. Within OA, we found a significant correlation between risk preferences and choice strategy. This linkage between preferences and strategy appears to derive from a convergence to risk neutrality driven by greater use of the effortful maximizing strategy. As utility maximization and value maximization intersect at risk neutrality, this result suggests that OA are exhibiting a relationship between enhanced rationality and enhanced value maximization. While there was variability in economic decision-making measures within OA, these individual differences were unrelated to variability within examined measures of cognitive ability. Our results demonstrate that aging alters economic

  11. Test-retest assessment of functional near-infrared spectroscopy to measure risk decision making in young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Lin, Zijing; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

    2013-03-01

    Investigation of the reliability and reproducibility of the hemodynamic response is important for interpretation and understanding of the results of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). It measures optical signals absorbed by the brain tissue and reflects the neuronal activities indirectly. Here we described an fNIRS study measured in the prefrontal region (Brodman area 9, 10, part of 46)to examine the risk decision-making behavior in nine young adults. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is widely used to test the level of risk taking ability in the field of psychology. BART was a protocol utilized in this study to evoke a risk-taking environment with a gambling-like balloon game in each subject. Specifically, we recorded the brain oxygenated-hemoglobin (HbO) and deoxygenated-hemoglobin (HHb) changes during the two repeated measurements within a time interval of 3 weeks. The results demonstrate that the changes in HbO2 amplitudes have high reliability at the group level, and that the spatial patterns of the tomographic images have high reproducibility in size and a moderate degree of overlap. Overall, this study confirms that the hemodynamic response to risk decision-making (i.e., BART) seen by fNIRS is highly reliable and reproducible.

  12. Clinical decision making in a high-risk primary care environment: a qualitative study in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balla, John; Heneghan, Carl; Thompson, Matthew; Balla, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    Examine clinical reasoning and decision making in an out of hours (OOH) primary care setting to gain insights into how general practitioners (GPs) make clinical decisions and manage risk in this environment. Semi-structured interviews using open-ended questions. A 2-month qualitative interview study conducted in Oxfordshire, UK. 21 GPs working in OOH primary care. The most powerful themes to emerge related to dealing with urgent potentially high-risk cases, keeping patients safe and responding to their needs, while trying to keep patients out of hospital and the concept of 'fire fighting'. There were a number of well-defined characteristics that GPs reported making presentations easy or difficult to deal with. Severely ill patients were straightforward, while the older people, with complex multisystem diseases, were often difficult. GPs stopped collecting clinical information and came to clinical decisions when high-risk disease and severe illness requiring hospital attention has been excluded; they had responded directly to the patient's needs and there was a reliable safety net in place. Learning points that GPs identified as important for trainees in the OOH setting included the importance of developing rapport in spite of time pressures, learning to deal with uncertainty and learning about common presentations with a focus on critical cues to exclude severe illness. The findings support suggestions that improvements in primary care OOH could be achieved by including automated and regular timely feedback system for GPs and individual peer and expert clinician support for GPs with regular meetings to discuss recent cases. In addition, trainee support and mentoring to focus on clinical skills, knowledge and risk management issues specific to OOH is currently required. Investigating the stopping rules used for diagnostic closure may provide new insights into the root causes of clinical error in such a high-risk setting.

  13. Inertia and Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  14. Affective Decision Making in Insurance Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha

    2004-01-01

    This paper suggests incorporating affective considerations into decision making theory and insurance decision in particular. I describe a decision maker with two internal accounts - the rational account and the mental account. The rational account decides on insurance to maximize expected (perceived) utility, while the mental account chooses risk perceptions which then affect the perceived expected utility. The two accounts interact to reach a decision which is composed of both risk perceptio...

  15. Plant lifetime reliability and risk: Addressing today's strategies for making tomorrow's decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of some of the research projects, conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that deal with the question: How can an acceptable level of risk of a nuclear power plant be maintained throughout its design life? With a viewpoint that life extension planning for a plant can be viewed as a long-range, strategic maintenance program, the products of this research are discussed from the perspective of being elements that can tie day-to-day, plant operational tactical decisions on component/system reliability with long-range strategic maintenance goals. A common factor in addressing issues associated with design life and life extension is the issue of component aging and the reliability implications of aging. A time-dependent reliability model is described which contains some of the requisite ingredients and is built on a framework from which the component aging/component reliability issue can be addressed. By way of select examples, the additional work needed to further address plant lifetime reliability and risk is indicated

  16. Foraging Value, Risk Avoidance, and Multiple Control Signals: How the Anterior Cingulate Cortex Controls Value-based Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Joshua W; Alexander, William H

    2017-10-01

    Recent work on the role of the ACC in cognition has focused on choice difficulty, action value, risk avoidance, conflict resolution, and the value of exerting control among other factors. A main underlying question is what are the output signals of ACC, and relatedly, what is their effect on downstream cognitive processes? Here we propose a model of how ACC influences cognitive processing in other brain regions that choose actions. The model builds on the earlier Predicted Response Outcome model and suggests that ACC learns to represent specifically the states in which the potential costs or risks of an action are high, on both short and long timescales. It then uses those cost signals as a basis to bias decisions to minimize losses while maximizing gains. The model simulates both proactive and reactive control signals and accounts for a variety of empirical findings regarding value-based decision-making.

  17. "And I think that we can fix it": mental models used in high-risk surgical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruser, Jacqueline M; Pecanac, Kristen E; Brasel, Karen J; Cooper, Zara; Steffens, Nicole M; McKneally, Martin F; Schwarze, Margaret L

    2015-04-01

    To examine how surgeons use the "fix-it" model to communicate with patients before high-risk operations. The "fix-it" model characterizes disease as an isolated abnormality that can be restored to normal form and function through medical intervention. This mental model is familiar to patients and physicians, but it is ineffective for chronic conditions and treatments that cannot achieve normalcy. Overuse may lead to permissive decision making favoring intervention. Efforts to improve surgical decision making will need to consider how mental models function in clinical practice, including "fix-it." We observed surgeons who routinely perform high-risk surgery during preoperative discussions with patients. We used qualitative content analysis to explore the use of "fix-it" in 48 audio-recorded conversations. Surgeons used the "fix-it" model for 2 separate purposes during preoperative conversations: (1) as an explanatory tool to facilitate patient understanding of disease and surgery, and (2) as a deliberation framework to assist in decision making. Although surgeons commonly used "fix-it" as an explanatory model, surgeons explicitly discussed limitations of the "fix-it" model as an independent rationale for operating as they deliberated about the value of surgery. Although the use of "fix-it" is familiar for explaining medical information to patients, surgeons recognize that the model can be problematic for determining the value of an operation. Whether patients can transition between understanding how their disease is fixed with surgery to a subsequent deliberation about whether they should have surgery is unclear and may have broader implications for surgical decision making.

  18. Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

    1998-09-01

    Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

  19. A model-based analysis of decision making under risk in obsessive-compulsive and hoarding disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranovich, Gabriel J; Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Pitt, Mark A; Myung, Jay I; Mathews, Carol A

    2017-07-01

    Attitudes towards risk are highly consequential in clinical disorders thought to be prone to "risky behavior", such as substance dependence, as well as those commonly associated with excessive risk aversion, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and hoarding disorder (HD). Moreover, it has recently been suggested that attitudes towards risk may serve as a behavioral biomarker for OCD. We investigated the risk preferences of participants with OCD and HD using a novel adaptive task and a quantitative model from behavioral economics that decomposes risk preferences into outcome sensitivity and probability sensitivity. Contrary to expectation, compared to healthy controls, participants with OCD and HD exhibited less outcome sensitivity, implying less risk aversion in the standard economic framework. In addition, risk attitudes were strongly correlated with depression, hoarding, and compulsion scores, while compulsion (hoarding) scores were associated with more (less) "rational" risk preferences. These results demonstrate how fundamental attitudes towards risk relate to specific psychopathology and thereby contribute to our understanding of the cognitive manifestations of mental disorders. In addition, our findings indicate that the conclusion made in recent work that decision making under risk is unaltered in OCD is premature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Group Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Bridges, John; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria.

  1. Decision-Making for Risk Management in Sustainable Renewable Energy Facilities: A Case Study in the Dominican Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido C. Guerrero-Liquet

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Today, Renewable Energy Sources (RES are a key pillar to achieving sustainable development, which is the main reason why energy projects are being carried out not only in developed countries but also in many emerging countries. Since the technical and financial risk remains a major barrier to financing renewable energy projects, several mechanisms are available to reduce risks on investment into clean energy projects. This paper discusses risk management tools in solar photovoltaic facilities based on the guide to the Project Management (PMBOK Guide. To do this, a combination of different decision-making methodologies will be carried out. These methodologies enable to not only extract the knowledge by experts but also to know the causes and effects that help to make the best decision. In order to do so, techniques to seek information (Delphi and Checklist as well as diagram techniques such as cause and effect diagrams or Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT are applied. The categorization and prioritization of risks will be carried out through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Finally, a sensitivity analysis will allow for providing consistency to the obtained results. A real case in the Dominican Republic will also be presented as case study.

  2. The effect of a new lifetime-cardiovascular-risk display on patients' motivation to participate in shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jegan, Nikita Roman A; Kürwitz, Sarah Anna; Kramer, Lena Kathrin; Heinzel-Gutenbrunner, Monika; Adarkwah, Charles Christian; Popert, Uwe; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

    2018-06-09

    This study investigated the effects of three different risk displays used in a cardiovascular risk calculator on patients' motivation for shared decision-making (SDM). We compared a newly developed time-to-event (TTE) display with two established absolute risk displays (i.e. emoticons and bar charts). The accessibility, that is, how understandable, helpful, and trustworthy patients found each display, was also investigated. We analysed a sample of 353 patients recruited in general practices. After giving consent, patients were introduced to one of three fictional vignettes with low, medium or high cardiovascular risk. All three risk displays were shown in a randomized order. Patients were asked to rate each display with regard to motivation for SDM and accessibility. Two-factorial repeated measures analyses of variance were conducted to compare the displays and investigate possible interactions with age. Regarding motivation for SDM, the TTE elicited the highest motivation, followed by the emoticons and bar chart (p motivation for SDM and accessibility when compared to established displays using emoticons and a bar chart. If future research can replicate these results in real-life consultations, the TTE display will be a valuable addition to current risk calculators and decision aids by improving patients' participation.

  3. Neural substrates underlying effort, time, and risk-based decision making in motivated behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Matthew R; Simpson, Eleanor H; Balsam, Peter D

    2016-09-01

    All mobile organisms rely on adaptive motivated behavior to overcome the challenges of living in an environment in which essential resources may be limited. A variety of influences ranging from an organism's environment, experiential history, and physiological state all influence a cost-benefit analysis which allows motivation to energize behavior and direct it toward specific goals. Here we review the substantial amount of research aimed at discovering the interconnected neural circuits which allow organisms to carry-out the cost-benefit computations which allow them to behave in adaptive ways. We specifically focus on how the brain deals with different types of costs, including effort requirements, delays to reward and payoff riskiness. An examination of this broad literature highlights the importance of the extended neural circuits which enable organisms to make decisions about these different types of costs. This involves Cortical Structures, including the Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC), the Orbital Frontal Cortex (OFC), the Infralimbic Cortex (IL), and prelimbic Cortex (PL), as well as the Baso-Lateral Amygdala (BLA), the Nucleus Accumbens (NAcc), the Ventral Pallidal (VP), the Sub Thalamic Nucleus (STN) among others. Some regions are involved in multiple aspects of cost-benefit computations while the involvement of other regions is restricted to information relating to specific types of costs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  5. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  6. Decision making with environmental indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoag, Dana L.; Ascough, James C.; Keske-Handley, C.; Koontz, Lynne; Burk, A.R.

    2005-01-01

    Since Ott's seminal book on environmental indices (1978), the use of indices has expanded into several natural resource disciplines, including ecological studies, environmental policymaking, and agricultural economics. However, despite their increasing use in natural resource disciplines, researchers and public decision makers continue to express concern about validity of these instruments to capture and communicate multidimensional, and sometimes disparate, characteristics of research data and stakeholder interests. Our purpose is to demonstrate how useful indices can be for communicating environmental information to decision makers. We discuss how environmental indices have evolved over four stages: 1) simple; 2) compound multicriteria; 3) the impact matrix and 4) disparate stakeholder management. We provide examples of simple and compound indices that were used by policy decision makers. We then build a framework, called an Impact Matrix (IM), that comprehensively accounts for multiple indices but lets the user decide how to integrate them. The IM was shaped from the concept of a financial risk payoff matrix and applied to ecosystem risk. While the IM offers flexibility, it does not address stakeholder preferences about which index to use. Therefore, the last phase in our evolutionary ladder includes stakeholder indices to specifically address disparate stakeholder preferences. Finally, we assert that an environmental index has the potential to increase resource efficiency, since the number of decision making resources may be reduced, and hence improve upon resource productivity

  7. Chronic alcohol intake during adolescence, but not adulthood, promotes persistent deficits in risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Abigail G; Tsutsui, Kimberly T; Clark, Jeremy J

    2014-06-01

    Adolescent alcohol use is a major public health concern and is strongly correlated with the development of alcohol abuse problems in adulthood. Adolescence is characterized by maturation and remodeling of brain regions implicated in decision making and therefore may be uniquely vulnerable to environmental insults such as alcohol exposure. We have previously demonstrated that voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescence results in maladaptive risk-based decision making in adulthood. However, it is unclear whether this effect on risk-based decision making can be attributed to chronic alcohol use in general or to a selective effect of alcohol use during the adolescent period. Ethanol (EtOH) was presented to adolescent (postnatal day [PND] 30 to 49) and adult rats (PND 80 to 99) for 20 days, either 24 hours or 1 h/d, in a gel matrix consisting of distilled water, gelatin, polycose (10%), and EtOH (10%). The 24-hour time course of EtOH intake was measured and compared between adolescent and adult animals. Following 20 days of withdrawal from EtOH, we assessed risk-based decision making with a concurrent instrumental probability-discounting task. Blood EtOH concentrations (BECs) were taken from trunk blood and assessed using the Analox micro-stat GM7 in separate groups of animals at different time points. Unlike animals exposed to EtOH during adolescence, animals exposed to alcohol during adulthood did not display differences in risk preference compared to controls. Adolescent and adult rats displayed similar EtOH intake levels and patterns when given either 24- or 1-hour access per day. In addition, while both groups reached significant BEC levels, we failed to find a difference between adult and adolescent animals. Here, we show that adolescent, but not adult, EtOH intake leads to a persistent increase in risk preference which cannot be attributed to differences in intake levels or BECs attained. Our findings support previous work implicating adolescence as a time

  8. My Lived Experiences Are More Important Than Your Probabilities: The Role of Individualized Risk Estimates for Decision Making about Participation in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Christine; Waters, Erika A; Whitehouse, Katie; Daly, Mary; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta

    2015-11-01

    Decision-making experts emphasize that understanding and using probabilistic information are important for making informed decisions about medical treatments involving complex risk-benefit tradeoffs. Yet empirical research demonstrates that individuals may not use probabilities when making decisions. To explore decision making and the use of probabilities for decision making from the perspective of women who were risk-eligible to enroll in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR). We conducted narrative interviews with 20 women who agreed to participate in STAR and 20 women who declined. The project was based on a narrative approach. Analysis included the development of summaries of each narrative, and thematic analysis with developing a coding scheme inductively to code all transcripts to identify emerging themes. Interviewees explained and embedded their STAR decisions within experiences encountered throughout their lives. Such lived experiences included but were not limited to breast cancer family history, a personal history of breast biopsies, and experiences or assumptions about taking tamoxifen or medicines more generally. Women's explanations of their decisions about participating in a breast cancer chemoprevention trial were more complex than decision strategies that rely solely on a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of probabilities derived from populations In addition to precise risk information, clinicians and risk communicators should recognize the importance and legitimacy of lived experience in individual decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. From Thoughts To Action - Linking Practice, Science, Policy And Decision Making: Dissemination Activities Of The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stal, Marc; Sutter, Corina; Ammann, Walter

    2010-05-01

    The world's growing population in combination with expanding urbanisation, globalisation and climate change has greatly aggravated the risk potential to all communities and nations. These increasing risks imply the intensification of worldwide disasters, hence collaborations and worldwide knowledge exchange to mitigate these negative impacts is mandatory. How can these exchange and collaboration activities take place? The Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos addresses the variety of risks that face communities with a special focus on climate change, natural hazards, environmental degradation as well as technical, biological risks, pandemics and terrorism - all across different political institutions, national and international organisations, countries and business sectors. One of GRF's main goals is to bridge the gap between science and practice and to promote and accelerate the worldwide exchange of know-how and experience. GRF Davos aims at targeting solutions and promoting good practice in integral risk management and climate change adaptation.. The Forum also provides and manages a network for decision-makers, practitioners and experts from politics, government, IGOs, business, science, NGOs, media and the public and works on maintaining and expanding these networks constantly to enable the dissemination of disaster and risk reduction techniques. In order to link practice, science, policy and decision making, GRF Davos has three pillars, the Risk Academy, the International Disaster and Risk Conferences and Workshops (IDRC) as well as the online Platform for Networks. With its pillars, the GRFs aims at reducing vulnerability for all types of risks and disasters to protect life, property, environment, critical infrastructure and all means of business for the worldwide community on a sustainable basis.

  10. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Serotonin shapes risky decision making in monkeys

    OpenAIRE

    Long, Arwen B.; Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Platt, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in ...

  12. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  13. A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25. A Report by the International Nuclear Safety Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    There is general international agreement, as reflected in various IAEA Safety Standards on nuclear reactor design and operation, that both deterministic and probabilistic analyses contribute to reactor safety by providing insights, perspective, comprehension and balance. Accordingly, the integration of deterministic and probabilistic analyses is increasing to support design, safety evaluation and operations. Additionally, application of these approaches to physical security is now being considered by several Member States. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses yield outputs that are complementary to each other. There is thus a need to use a structured framework for consideration of deterministic and probabilistic techniques and findings. In this process, it is appropriate to encourage a balance between deterministic approaches, probabilistic analyses and other factors (see Section 3) in order to achieve an integrated decision making process that serves in an optimal fashion to ensure nuclear reactor safety. This report presents such a framework - a framework that is termed 'integrated risk informed decision making' (IRIDM). While the details of IRIDM methods may change with better understanding of the subject, the framework presented in this report is expected to apply for the foreseeable future. IRIDM depends on the integration of a wide variety of information, insights and perspectives, as well as the commitment of designers, operators and regulatory authorities ers, operators and regulatory authorities to use risk information in their decisions. This report thus focuses on key IRIDM aspects, as well considerations that bear on their application which should be taken into account in order to arrive at sound risk informed decisions. This report is intended to be in harmony with the IAEA Safety Standards and various INSAG reports relating to safety assessment and verification, and seeks to convey an appropriate approach to enhance nuclear reactor safety

  14. Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

    2012-10-01

    This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

  15. Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

  16. The Evaluation of the Adequacy of PRA Results for Risk-informed Decision Makings With Respect to Incompleteness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyungmin; Jae, Moosung

    2007-01-01

    PRA(Probabilistic Risk Assessment), as a quantitative tool, has many strengths as well as weaknesses. There are several limitations on the use of PRA techniques for risk modeling and analysis. First, the true values of most model inputs are unknown. Ideally, probability distribution models are well developed and assigned to the unknown input parameters to reflect the analyst's state of knowledge of the values of this input parameter. The problem of overconfidence and lack of confidence in the values of certain model input parameters can lead to inaccurate PRA results. Secondly, the analyst's lack of knowledge of a system's practical application as opposed to its theoretical operation can lead to modeling errors. The quality of PRAs has been addressed by a number of regulatory and industry organizations Some have argued that a good PRA should be a complete, full scope, three level PRA, while others have claimed that the quality of a PRA should be measured with respect to the application and decision supported. we show by way of an example that the adequacy of a PRA results is important to risk-informed decision making process and should be measured with respect to the application and decision supported

  17. Emotions, Mood and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Agnes Virlics

    2014-01-01

    Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...

  18. Prospect Theory and the Risks Involved in Decision-Making: Content Analysis in ProQuest Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sady Darcy da Silva-Junior

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the objective is to perform content analysis on articles of a reliable database, dealing with the prospect theory and the risks involved in the decision making process, evaluating some criteria for the theoretical and methodological approaches that allow a joint analysis and comparative. Therefore, a search in ProQuest database was performed which resulted in 15 articles that were submitted to content analysis process, based on the evaluation of nine factors identified by researchers. Among the results highlight the critical attitude to the prospect theory, in contrast to the assertion of his representative capacity of real situations and application in various situations.

  19. Decision-making on an explicit risk-taking task in preadolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drechsler, R; Rizzo, P; Steinhausen, H-C

    2008-01-01

    Inappropriate risk-taking and disadvantageous decision-making have been described as major behavioural characteristics of patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However these behaviours are difficult to measure in laboratory contexts and recent studies have yielded inconsistent results which might be related to task characteristics. The present study adopted the Game of Dice Task, a test procedure in which risks are made explicit and the load on working memory is minimal. As a result, preadolescents with ADHD (N = 23) made significantly more risky choices and suffered major losses of money compared to normal controls (N = 24) but only when they played the game a second time. Differences in risk-taking correlated significantly with hyperactivity as rated by parents and with inhibitory control, but not with working memory performance. The results are discussed in the context of current theories of ADHD.

  20. Regret in Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Connolly, T.; Zeelenberg, M.

    2002-01-01

    Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities

  1. [Interoception and decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Hideki

    2015-02-01

    We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

  2. Risky Decision Making in Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Unterberger

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years. Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.

  3. Risky Decision Making in Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unterberger, Iris; Zamarian, Laura; Prieschl, Manuela; Bergmann, Melanie; Walser, Gerald; Luef, Gerhard; Javor, Andrija; Ransmayr, Gerhard; Delazer, Margarete

    2018-01-01

    It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years) and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years). Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.

  4. Collaborative Decision Making in METOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706

  5. Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

    2015-04-01

    Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

  6. Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

    After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

  7. The impact of multiple show-ups on eyewitness decision-making and innocence risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew M; Bertrand, Michelle; Lindsay, R C L; Kalmet, Natalie; Grossman, Deborah; Provenzano, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    If an eyewitness rejects a show-up, police may respond by finding a new suspect and conducting a second show-up with the same eyewitness. Police may continue finding suspects and conducting show-ups until the eyewitness makes an identification (Study 1). Relatively low criterion-setting eyewitnesses filter themselves out of the multiple show-ups procedure by choosing the first suspect with whom they are presented (Studies 2 and 3). Accordingly, response bias was more stringent on the second show-up when compared with the first, but became no more stringent with additional show-ups. Despite this stringent shift in response bias, innocence risk increased with additional show-ups, as false alarms cumulate (Studies 2 and 3). Although unbiased show-up instructions decreased innocent suspect identifications, the numbers were still discouraging (Study 4). Given the high number of innocent suspects who would be mistakenly identified through the use of multiple show-up procedures, using such identifications as evidence of guilt is questionable. Although evidence of guilt is limited to identifications from a single show-up, practical constraints might sometimes require police to use additional show-ups. Accordingly, we propose a stronger partition between evidentiary and investigative procedures. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  9. Evidence informed decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep

    2015-01-01

    from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....

  10. Constraint programming and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    2014-01-01

    In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

  11. Risk assessment in the European Community (EC); perspective as partial contributor in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.

    1981-01-01

    This paper is oriented towards the use of nuclear power for electricity production. The subject is discussed under the following headings: preamble; survey of practice and trends in reliability analyses and risk assessment:general (the risk concept; the types of reliability and risk analysis; the present state and trends of a probabilistic approach in safety analysis); risk analysis, partial contributor in the acceptability-problem (the political scene; technological society; cost effectiveness of risk reduction, cost-risk-benefit balancing; risk perception and acceptance; comparison of energy systems); need for and limitations of quantified safety objectives. (U.K.)

  12. Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaighobadi, Farnaz; Stevens, Jeffrey R

    2013-07-18

    Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males), become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted--i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  13. Does Fertility Status Influence Impulsivity and Risk Taking in Human Females? Adaptive Influences on Intertemporal Choice and Risky Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnaz Kaighobadi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted—i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  14. Under Pressure: Response Urgency Modulates Striatal and Insula Activity during Decision-Making under Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Catherine L.; Minati, Ludovico; Harrison, Neil A.; Ward, Jamie; Critchley, Hugo D.

    2011-01-01

    When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Usin...

  15. GSNL 2.0: leveraging on Open Science to promote science-based decision making in Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Stefano; Rubbia, Giuliana; Abruzzese, Luigi

    2017-04-01

    In 2010 the GEO Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories initiative (GSNL) launched the concept of a global partnership among the geophysical scientific community and the satellite and in situ data providers, aiming to promote scientific advancements in the knowledge of seismic and volcanic phenomena. The initial goal was successfully achieved, and many more new scientific results were obtained than it could have been possible if the Supersites had not existed (http://www.earthobservations.org/gsnl.php). At the same time the Supersites have demonstrated to be able to effectively support the rapid transfer of useful scientific information to the risk managers, exploiting the existing institutional relationships between the Supersite coordinators and the local decision makers. However, a more demanding call for action is given by the Sendai Framework 2015-2030 (outcome of the 2015 UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction), where for the first time the knowledge of the risk components and the science based decision-making process are defined as top priorities for an effective DRR. There are evident possible synergies between the Sendai framework, GEO, the CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites), and GSNL, but for maximum benefit and effectiveness the latter needs to progress at a faster pace towards a full implementation of the Open Science approach to geohazard science. In the above global framework the Supersites can represent local test beds where to experiment coordination, collaboration and communication approaches and technological solutions tailored to the local situation, to ensure that the scientific community can contribute the information needed for the best possible decision making. This vision and the new developments of GSNL 2.0 have been approved by the GEO Program Board, and a clear roadmap has been set for the period 2017-2019. We will present the approach and the implementation plan at the conference.

  16. The pros and cons of funnel plots as an aid to risk communication and patient decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakow, Tim; Wright, Rebecca J; Spiegelhalter, David J; Bull, Catherine

    2015-05-01

    Funnel plots, which simultaneously display a sample statistic and the corresponding sample size for multiple cases, have a range of applications. In medicine, they are used to display treatment outcome rates and caseload volume by institution, which can inform strategic decisions about health care delivery. We investigated lay people's understanding of such plots and explored their suitability as an aid to individual treatment decisions. In two studies, 172 participants answered objective questions about funnel plots representing the surgical outcomes (survival or mortality rates) of institutions varying in caseload, and indicated their preferred institutions. Accuracy for extracting objective information was high, unless question phrasing was inconsistent with the plot's survival/mortality framing, or participants had low numeracy levels. Participants integrated caseload-volume and outcome-rate data when forming preferences, but were influenced by reference lines on the plot to make inappropriate discriminations between institutions with similar outcome rates. With careful choice of accompanying language, funnel plots can be readily understood and are therefore a useful tool for communicating risk. However, they are less effective as a decision aid for individual patient's treatment decisions, and we recommend refinements to the standard presentation of the plots if they are to be used for that purpose. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  17. How can health care organisations make and justify decisions about risk reduction? Lessons from a cross-industry review and a health care stakeholder consensus development process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sujan, Mark A.; Habli, Ibrahim; Kelly, Tim P.; Gühnemann, Astrid; Pozzi, Simone; Johnson, Christopher W.

    2017-01-01

    Interventions to reduce risk often have an associated cost. In UK industries decisions about risk reduction are made and justified within a shared regulatory framework that requires that risk be reduced as low as reasonably practicable. In health care no such regulatory framework exists, and the practice of making decisions about risk reduction is varied and lacks transparency. Can health care organisations learn from relevant industry experiences about making and justifying risk reduction decisions? This paper presents lessons from a qualitative study undertaken with 21 participants from five industries about how such decisions are made and justified in UK industry. Recommendations were developed based on a consensus development exercise undertaken with 20 health care stakeholders. The paper argues that there is a need in health care to develop a regulatory framework and an agreed process for managing explicitly the trade-off between risk reduction and cost. The framework should include guidance about a health care specific notion of acceptable levels of risk, guidance about standardised risk reduction interventions, it should include regulatory incentives for health care organisations to reduce risk, and it should encourage the adoption of an approach for documenting explicitly an organisation's risk position. - Highlights: • Empirical description of industry perceptions on making risk reduction decisions. • Health care consensus development identified five recommendations. • Risk concept should be better integrated into safety management. • Education and awareness about risk concept are required. • Health systems need to start a dialogue about acceptable levels of risk.

  18. A Flood Risk Assessment Model for Companies and Criteria for Governmental Decision-Making to Minimize Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieun Ryu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risks in the industrial sector and economic damages are increasing because of climate change. In addition to changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change; factors that increase flood damage include infrastructure deterioration and lack of storage facilities. Therefore; it is necessary for companies and the government to actively establish flood management policies. However; no evaluation method is currently available to determine which items should be invested in first by small and medium-sized enterprises that have limited finances. Because the government should make comprehensive and fair decisions; the purpose of this study is to propose priority investment risk items and an assessment method to decide which companies should be invested in first in flood risk management due to climate change. The multispatial scale of the method takes both the location and characteristics of the company into account. Future climate change scenarios were used to evaluate the changing patterns of flood risks. We developed the relative Flood Risk Assessment for Company (FRAC model methodology to support the government’s policymaking. This method was applied to four companies belonging to four different industries and three risk items were derived that are likely to harm the company owing to flooding.

  19. IDENTIFYING HIGH-RISK POPULATIONS OF TUBERCULOSIS USING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND GIS BASED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Abdul Rasam

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development of an innovative method to enhance the detection of tuberculosis (TB in Malaysia is the latest agenda of the Ministry of Health. Therefore, a geographical information system (GIS based index model is proposed as an alternative method for defining potential high-risk areas of local TB cases at Section U19, Shah Alam. It is adopted a spatial multi-criteria decision making (MCDM method for ranking environmental risk factors of the disease in a standardised five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 illustrate the lowest and the highest risk of the TB spread respectively, while scale from 3 to 5 is included as a potential risk level. These standardised scale values are then combined with expert normalised weights (0 to 1 to calculate the overall index values and produce a TB ranked map using a GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination. It is discovered that 71.43% of the Section is potential as TB high risk areas particularly at urban and densely populated settings. This predictive result is also reliable with the current real cases in 2015 by 76.00% accuracy. A GIS based MCDM method has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and TB surveillance monitoring system of the country, but the result could be strengthened by applying other uncertainty assessment method.

  20. Decision making on fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

    2017-04-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

  1. Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

  2. Decision Making: The Underdeveloped Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Robert

    1974-01-01

    Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)

  3. Emotional Intelligence and Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A M Kustubayeva

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of the experimental research of the connection between the efficiency of decision making and emotional intelligence are presented in the article. The empirical data indicate that the ability to regulate emotion is an important indicator of the efficiency of decision making in the conditions of psychological experiment.

  4. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  5. Disgust as a Mechanism for Decision Making Under Risk: Illuminating Sex Differences and Individual Risk-Taking Correlates of Disgust Propensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Adam Maxwell; Fessler, Daniel M T; Chan, Kai Qin; Ashokkumar, Ashwini; Holbrook, Colin

    2018-02-01

    The emotion disgust motivates costly behavioral strategies that mitigate against potentially larger costs associated with pathogens, sexual behavior, and moral transgressions. Because disgust thereby regulates exposure to harm, it is by definition a mechanism for calibrating decision making under risk. Understanding this illuminates two features of the demographic distribution of this emotion. First, this approach predicts and explains sex differences in disgust. Greater female disgust propensity is often reported and discussed in the literature, but, to date, conclusions have been based on informal comparisons across a small number of studies, while existing functionalist explanations are at best incomplete. We report the results of an extensive meta-analysis documenting this sex difference, arguing that key features of this pattern are best explained as one manifestation of a broad principle of the evolutionary biology of risk-taking: for a given potential benefit, males in an effectively polygynous mating system accept the risk of harm more willingly than do females. Second, viewing disgust as a mechanism for decision making under risk likewise predicts that individual differences in disgust propensity should correlate with individual differences in various forms of risky behavior, because situational and dispositional factors that influence valuation of opportunity and hazard are often correlated across multiple decision contexts. In two l