WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk behavior estimates

  1. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  2. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  3. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  4. Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2008-09-01

    This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

  5. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  6. Operational Definitions of Sexual Orientation and Estimates of Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Derrick D.; Blosnich, John R.; Farmer, Grant W.; Adams, Brian J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Increasing attention to the health of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) populations comes with requisite circumspection about measuring sexual orientation in surveys. However, operationalizing these variables also requires considerable thought. This research sought to document the consequences of different operational definitions of sexual orientation by examining variation in health risk behaviors. Methods Using Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Survey data, we examined how operational definitions of sexual behavior and sexual identity influenced differences among three health behaviors known to disparately affect LGB populations: smoking, suicide risk, and methamphetamine use. Sexual behavior and sexual identity were also examined together to explore if they captured unique sources of variability in behavior. Results Estimates of health disparities changed as a result of using either sexual behavior or sexual identity. Youth who reported their sexual identity as “not sure” also had increased odds of health risk behavior. Disaggregating bisexual identity and behavior from same-sex identity and behavior frequently resulted in the attenuation or elimination of health disparities that would have otherwise been attributable to exclusively same-sex sexual minorities. Finally, sexual behavior and sexual identity explained unique and significant sources of variability in all three health behaviors. Conclusion Researchers using different operational definitions of sexual orientation could draw different conclusions, even when analyzing the same data, depending upon how they chose to represent sexual orientation in analyses. We discuss implications that these manipulations have on data interpretation and provide specific recommendations for best-practices when analyzing sexual orientation data collected from adolescent populations. PMID:25110718

  7. Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

    2018-01-01

    Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

    2014-12-01

    This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

    2015-07-01

    Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

  10. Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

  11. The Meth Project and Teen Meth Use: New Estimates from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D Mark; Elsea, David

    2015-12-01

    In this note, we use data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveys for the period 1999 through 2011 to estimate the relationship between the Meth Project, an anti-methamphetamine advertising campaign, and meth use among high school students. During this period, a total of eight states adopted anti-meth advertising campaigns. After accounting for pre-existing downward trends in meth use, we find little evidence that the campaign curbed meth use in the full sample. We do find, however, some evidence that the Meth Project may have decreased meth use among White high school students. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  13. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  14. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  15. Estimating Risk Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Aswath Damodaran

    1999-01-01

    Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

  16. Analytical estimates of structural behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Dym, Clive L

    2012-01-01

    Explicitly reintroducing the idea of modeling to the analysis of structures, Analytical Estimates of Structural Behavior presents an integrated approach to modeling and estimating the behavior of structures. With the increasing reliance on computer-based approaches in structural analysis, it is becoming even more important for structural engineers to recognize that they are dealing with models of structures, not with the actual structures. As tempting as it is to run innumerable simulations, closed-form estimates can be effectively used to guide and check numerical results, and to confirm phys

  17. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  18. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  19. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among youth and adults, including— Behaviors that contribute ...

  20. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  1. Aggregate versus Individual-Level Sexual Behavior Assessment: How Much Detail Is Needed to Accurately Estimate HIV/STI Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkerton, Steven D.; Galletly, Carol L.; McAuliffe, Timothy L.; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Raymond, H. Fisher; Chesson, Harrell W.

    2010-01-01

    The sexual behaviors of HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention intervention participants can be assessed on a partner-by-partner basis: in aggregate (i.e., total numbers of sex acts, collapsed across partners) or using a combination of these two methods (e.g., assessing five partners in detail and any remaining partners in aggregate).…

  2. The need to estimate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1980-01-01

    In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

  3. Radiation in space: risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

  4. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  5. Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, W.L.

    1976-01-01

    Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

  6. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  7. [The concept of risk and its estimation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

    1996-01-01

    following formal definition of risk is proposed: the probability of occurrence, in a given period of time, of an adverse health effect as a consequence of the existence of an hazard. In formula: R(d[symbol: see text]p) = Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) x Pr(d[symbol: see text]e). While Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) (exposure given hazard) must be evaluated in the situation under study, two alternatives exist for the estimation of the occurrence of adverse health effects (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)): a "direct" estimation of the damage (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) through formal epidemiologic studies conducted in the situation under observation; and an "indirect" estimation of Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) using information taken from the scientific literature (epidemiologic evaluations, dose-response relationships, extrapolations, ...). Both conditions are presented along with their respective advantages, disadvantages, and uncertainties. The usefulness of the proposed algorithm is discussed with respect to commonly used applications of risk assessment in occupational medicine; the relevance of time for risk estimation (both in the term of duration of observation, duration of exposure, and latency of effect) is briefly explained; and how the proposed algorithm takes into account (in terms of prevention and public health) both the etiologic relevance of the exposure and the consequences of exposure removal is highlighted. As a last comment, it is suggested that the diffuse application of good work practices (technical, behavioral, organizational, ...), or the exhaustive use of check lists, can be relevant in terms of improvement of prevention efficacy, but does not represent any quantitative procedure of risk assessment which, in any circumstance, must be considered the elective approach to adverse health effect prevention.

  8. Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimolong, B.

    1980-01-01

    Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

  9. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  10. Risk Behavior and Personal Resiliency in Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the relationship between self-reported risk behaviors and personal resiliency in adolescents; specifically whether youth with higher personal resiliency report less frequent risk behaviors than those with lower personal resiliency. Self-reported risk behavior is surveyed by the "Adolescent Risk Behavior Inventory"…

  11. Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-07-01

    The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

  12. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  13. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors 6 types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among...

  14. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  15. Health Risk Behavior in Foster Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramkowski, Bridget; Kools, Susan; Paul, Steven; Boyer, Cherrie; Monasterio, Erica; Robbins, Nancy

    2010-01-01

    Problem Adolescent health problems are predominantly caused by risk behavior. Foster adolescents have disproportionately poor health; therefore identification of risk behavior is critical. Method A secondary analysis of data from a larger study investigated the health risk behavior of 56 foster youth using the CHIP-AE. Findings Foster youth had some increased risk behavior. Younger adolescents and those in kinship care had less risky behavior. Youth had more risk behavior when: in group homes, parental death, histories of physical or emotional abuse, or history of attempted suicide. Conclusions These results point to areas of strength and vulnerability in foster youth. PMID:19490278

  16. Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.

    1984-04-01

    Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references

  17. Risk perception and intended behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mushkatel, A.; Nigg, J.; Pijawka, D.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reviews the approach taken to assess the social impacts of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada on residents in the closest metropolitan area, Las Vegas. The purpose of this portion of the assessment is to investigate the effects of the repository on the future well-being and behavior of Las Vegas residents under different operational futures of the repository. To investigate these effects, a research design and conceptual framework were developed to collect data from a random sample of Las Vegas metropolitan area residents. The design allows for the collection of both baseline data (to determine current risk perceptions and behaviors) and projected effects of the repository under four different operational futures

  18. A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

    2012-06-01

    To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, B.R.R.

    1983-01-01

    This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

  20. Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

    2016-01-01

    .73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...

  1. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  2. Negative Affect, Risk Perception, and Adolescent Risk Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, Laura A.; Youngblade, Lise M.

    2006-01-01

    The prevalence, etiology, and consequences of adolescent risk behavior have stimulated much research. The current study examined relationships among anger and depressive symptomatology (DS), risk perception, self-restraint, and adolescent risk behavior. Telephone surveys were conducted with 290 14- to 20-year-olds (173 females; M = 15.98 years).…

  3. Common Genetic Risk for Melanoma Encourages Preventive Behavior Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori Diseati

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available There is currently great interest in using genetic risk estimates for common disease in personalized healthcare. Here we assess melanoma risk-related preventive behavioral change in the context of the Coriell Personalized Medicine Collaborative (CPMC. As part of on-going reporting activities within the project, participants received a personalized risk assessment including information related to their own self-reported family history of melanoma and a genetic risk variant showing a moderate effect size (1.7, 3.0 respectively for heterozygous and homozygous individuals. Participants who opted to view their report were sent an optional outcome survey assessing risk perception and behavioral change in the months that followed. Participants that report family history risk, genetic risk, or both risk factors for melanoma were significantly more likely to increase skin cancer preventive behaviors when compared to participants with neither risk factor (ORs = 2.04, 2.79, 4.06 and p-values = 0.02, 2.86 × 10−5, 4.67 × 10−5, respectively, and we found the relationship between risk information and behavior to be partially mediated by anxiety. Genomic risk assessments appear to encourage positive behavioral change in a manner that is complementary to family history risk information and therefore may represent a useful addition to standard of care for melanoma prevention.

  4. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

  5. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  6. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  7. New risk estimates at low doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, R.J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology

  8. Risk Factors for Smoking Behaviors among Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Sung Suk; Joung, Kyoung Hwa

    2014-01-01

    Many students in Korea begin to use tobacco and develop a regular smoking habit before they reach adulthood. Yet, little is known about various signs contributing to the transition of the student smoking behaviors. This study used a national sample to explore and compare risk factors for smoking behaviors. Three types of smoking behaviors were…

  9. MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radik B. Begov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

  10. Methods to estimate the genetic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehling, U.H.

    1989-01-01

    The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

  11. A review of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-06-01

    Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

  12. Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

    2013-11-01

    To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

  13. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...

  14. Behavioral control and reward sensitivity in adolescents’ risk taking behavior : A longitudinal TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

  15. Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior : A Longitudinal TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

  16. Delegated Portfolio Management and Risk Taking Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    José Luiz Barros Fernandes; Juan Ignacio Peña; Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2009-01-01

    Standard models of moral hazard predict a negative relationship between risk and incentives; however empirical studies on mutual funds present mixed results. In this paper, we propose a behavioral principal-agent model in the context of professional managers, focusing on active and passive investment strategies. Using this general framework, we evaluate how incentives affect the risk taking behavior of managers, using the standard moral hazard model as a special case; and solve the previous c...

  17. Parental knowledge and adolescents' risk behaviors

    OpenAIRE

    Albertos, A. (Aranzazu); Osorio, A. (Alfonso); Lopez-del-Burgo, C. (Cristina); Carlos, S. (Silvia); Beltramo, C. (Carlos); Trullols, F. (Fernando)

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we study whether parental knowledge of adolescents’ activities varies according to socio-demographic variables, and we analyze the possible association between parental knowledge patterns and certain risk behaviors among adolescents. A cross-sectional study was performed with representative samples of high-school students in Peru and El Salvador. A questionnaire assessed risk behaviors, as well as possible determinants, including parental knowledge. The questionnaire was answere...

  18. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

  19. Risk behavior in petroleum exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, P.R.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, the author uses the term risk aversion, which weighs the magnitude of investment against four factors: size of available budget, potential gain, potential loss, and probabilities of each outcome. Modern petroleum exploration consists of a series of investment decisions on whether to acquire additional technical data (geological, geophysical, engineering, drilling, or economic) and/or additional mineral interests. Each decision should allow a progressively clearer perception of project risk versus reward and should support timely management action concerning the inferred accumulation. Companies searching for oil and natural gas make hundreds of such exploration decisions each year. So the problem in serial exploration decision making is twofold: to be consistent in the way we deal with risk and uncertainty and to perceive risk and uncertainty accurately and reduce them where possible. Risk aversion is not just a hypothetical nuisance. It causes explorationists to make inconsistent investment decisions, and it costs exploration companies millions of dollars annually in lost opportunities, bad choices, and wasted investment dollars

  20. Coexistence of risk behaviors for being overweight among Brazilian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Nathália Luíza; Claro, Rafael Moreira; Mingoti, Sueli Aparecida; Lopes, Aline Cristine Souza

    2017-07-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the magnitude of and the factors associated with the coexistence of risk behaviors for being overweight among Brazilian adolescents. This is a cross-sectional study with a representative sample of adolescents (mostly aged 13-15years) enrolled from public and private schools of Brazil in 2012. The co-occurring sedentary behavior and inadequate food consumption (regular intake of sugary and fried foods, and irregular consumption of fruits and vegetables-FV) was estimated using a Venn diagram. Sociodemographic, familial, and behavioral factors associated with the number of risk behaviors for being overweight were identified using an ordinal logistic regression analysis. Sedentary behavior was observed in 62.0% of adolescents. Regular intake of sugary or fried food was observed in 55.3% and 23.5% of adolescents, respectively, with 51.9% having an inadequate intake of FV. At least one risk behavior was reported in >90.0% of adolescents; 6.1% reported all 4. Being female, having a higher maternal education level, attending private school, not having breakfast or meals with parents regularly, eat watching television, and not practicing weekly leisure time physical activity were associated with an increased chance of having multiple risk behaviors. This study observed a high prevalence of coexisting of risk behaviors, which was associated with sociodemographic, familial, and behavioral factors. These findings may contribute to a clearer understanding of the associations between different behaviors among adolescents, and may be used to improve public health surveillance and to develop strategies that address multiple behaviors, in order to prevent overweight among adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimate of Hanford Waste Rheology and Settling Behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poloski, Adam P.; Wells, Beric E.; Tingey, Joel M.; Mahoney, Lenna A.; Hall, Mark N.; Thomson, Scott L.; Smith, Gary Lynn; Johnson, Michael E.; Meacham, Joseph E.; Knight, Mark A.; Thien, Michael G.; Davis, Jim J.; Onishi, Yasuo

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of River Protection's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will process and treat radioactive waste that is stored in tanks at the Hanford Site. Piping, pumps, and mixing vessels have been selected to transport, store, and mix the high-level waste slurries in the WTP. This report addresses the analyses performed by the Rheology Working Group (RWG) and Risk Assessment Working Group composed of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PNNL, Bechtel National Inc. (BNI), CH2M HILL, DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) and Yasuo Onishi Consulting, LLC staff on data obtained from documented Hanford waste analyses to determine a best-estimate of the rheology of the Hanford tank wastes and their settling behavior. The actual testing activities were performed and reported separately in referenced documentation. Because of this, many of the required topics below do not apply and are so noted

  2. Protective response to technological emergency: risk perception and behavioral intention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindell, M.K.; Barnes, V.E.

    1986-01-01

    This article examines why, as suggested by the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station (TMI) event, the public is more inclined to evacuate in response to a radiation release than to a natural hazard. During the TMI incident, for example, did authorities present confusing or conflicting information or did the public have an exaggerated perception of radiation risk. Behavioral intention studies are combined with risk perception analyses to ascertain (1) the extent to which intentions to evacuate can be generalized from one sample to another and from one hazard to another, (2) the degree to which behavioral intentions are related to specific dimensions of risk perception, and (3) how public perceptions of risk compare with estimates of risk produced by reactor accident consequence analyses

  3. Pediatric unintentional injury: behavioral risk factors and implications for prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwebel, David C; Gaines, Joanna

    2007-06-01

    Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death for children and adolescents between the ages of 1 and 18 in the United States, accounting for more deaths than the next 20 causes of mortality combined. It is estimated that pediatric injury accounts for more than $50 billion in annual losses from medical care costs, future wages, and quality of life. Despite these numbers, much remains to be learned about the behavioral risks for pediatric unintentional injury. This article reviews behavioral risk factors for pediatric unintentional injury risk, with a particular focus on four broad areas. First, we discuss the effects of demographic risk factors, including gender, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity. Second, we present information about child-specific risk factors, including temperament, personality, psychopathology, and cognitive development. Third, we discuss the influence of parents and other primary caregivers on childhood injury risk, with a particular focus on the effects of supervision and parenting quality and style. Finally, we discuss the role of peers on child injury risk. We conclude with a discussion of the ways in which the material reviewed has been translated into injury prevention techniques, with a focus on how pediatricians might use knowledge about etiological risk to prioritize safety counseling topics. We also present thoughts on four priorities for future research: injury risk in diverse nations and cultures; developmental effects of injury; the influence of multiple risk factors together on injury risk; and translation of knowledge about risk for injury into intervention and prevention techniques.

  4. Work stress and health risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Johannes; Rödel, Andreas

    2006-12-01

    This contribution discusses current knowledge of associations between psychosocial stress at work and health risk behavior, in particular cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight, by reviewing findings from major studies in the field published between 1989 and 2006. Psychosocial stress at work is measured by the demand-control model and the effort-reward imbalance model. Health risk behavior was analyzed in the broader context of a health-related Western lifestyle with socially and economically patterned practices of consumption. Overall, the review, based on 46 studies, only modestly supports the hypothesis of a consistent association between work stress and health risk behavior. The relatively strongest relationships have been found with regard to heavy alcohol consumption among men, overweight, and the co-manifestation of several risks. Suggestions for further research are given, and the need to reduce stressful experience in the framework of worksite health promotion programs is emphasized.

  5. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  6. Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

    2011-07-01

    We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

  7. A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Giger, Maryellen Lissak

    2001-01-01

    ... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

  8. Sadness, suicide, and sexual behavior in Arkansas: results from the youth risk behavior survey 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindrick, Clint; Gathright, Molly; Cisler, Josh M; Messias, Erick

    2013-12-01

    We used the 2011 Arkansas Youth Risk Behavior Survey to estimate the prevalence of risky sexual behavior and sexual assault and to measure its association with teen suicidality. In Arkansas, 50.3% of students reported ever having sexual intercourse, 26% onset at 14 or younger, 36 % having had more than one partner, and 10.2% having been physically forced to have sex. "Being forced to have sex" was a risk factor for depression and all components of the suicide continuum. Additionally, early onset of sexual activity and having more than one partner increased the risk for depression, suicidal ideation, plan, and attempt. Suicide is a grievous and preventable tragedy, sadly standing among the leading causes of death for teens.' In this series, we examine risk factors for suicidality among Arkansas high school students; in this installment, we examine sexual behavior. A previous study utilizing the Rhode Island Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) found an association between having forced sexual intercourse and suicide. Furthermore, an association between psychiatric disorders and risky sexual behaviors, including both early onset and number of partners was found in a birth cohort study revealed. We hypothesize that Arkansas' teens reporting risky sexual behavior and sexual assault are at higher risk of depression and suicidality as well.

  9. Social class & risk preferences and behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kish-Gephart, Jennifer J

    2017-12-01

    This paper reviews recent work regarding the link between one's societal ranking (or social class), and risk preferences and behavior. While the topic of social class and its relationship to risk has been studied only tentatively in psychology, preliminary evidence suggests that experiences with rank, access to resources, and movement between classes have a meaningful impact on people's risk preferences and behaviors. Yet, a clear pattern of results remains elusive. Some studies suggest that lower social class standing is related to risk aversion, while others suggest it is related to risk taking. These mixed results highlight the need for future research that examines when and why lower social class standing is related to more or less risky decisions. By shedding light on this important phenomenon, the hope is to offer intervention opportunities that influence policies and mitigate inequality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  11. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.

  12. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks

  13. Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

    1988-10-01

    This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

  14. An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Benito Muela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

  15. Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

    OpenAIRE

    Pei Pei

    2010-01-01

    This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

  16. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  17. Parental knowledge and adolescents' risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albertos, Aranzazu; Osorio, Alfonso; Lopez-Del Burgo, Cristina; Carlos, Silvia; Beltramo, Carlos; Trullols, Fernando

    2016-12-01

    In this paper we study whether parental knowledge of adolescents' activities varies according to socio-demographic variables, and we analyze the possible association between parental knowledge patterns and certain risk behaviors among adolescents. A cross-sectional study was performed with representative samples of high-school students in Peru and El Salvador. A questionnaire assessed risk behaviors, as well as possible determinants, including parental knowledge. The questionnaire was answered by 6208 adolescents. We observed that the greater the degree of knowledge, the lower the frequency of risk behaviors among youth. The degree of knowledge was inversely associated with children's age, and we observed that being female was associated with a greater degree of parental knowledge. The study shows that parents' supervision criteria might be influenced by gender stereotypes, which would have a harmful effect on young males, as the lower degree of knowledge puts them at higher odds of risk behaviors. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Family structure and risk behaviors: the role of the family meal in assessing likelihood of adolescent risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb, Samantha; Tarver, Will L; Sen, Bisakha

    2014-01-01

    Previous literature has asserted that family meals are a key protective factor for certain adolescent risk behaviors. It is suggested that the frequency of eating with the family is associated with better psychological well-being and a lower risk of substance use and delinquency. However, it is unclear whether there is evidence of causal links between family meals and adolescent health-risk behaviors. The purpose of this article is to review the empirical literature on family meals and adolescent health behaviors and outcomes in the US. A SEARCH WAS CONDUCTED IN FOUR ACADEMIC DATABASES: Social Sciences Full Text, Sociological Abstracts, PsycINFO®, and PubMed/MEDLINE. We included studies that quantitatively estimated the relationship between family meals and health-risk behaviors. Data were extracted on study sample, study design, family meal measurement, outcomes, empirical methods, findings, and major issues. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria for the review that measured the relationship between frequent family meals and various risk-behavior outcomes. The outcomes considered by most studies were alcohol use (n=10), tobacco use (n=9), and marijuana use (n=6). Other outcomes included sexual activity (n=2); depression, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempts (n=4); violence and delinquency (n=4); school-related issues (n=2); and well-being (n=5). The associations between family meals and the outcomes of interest were most likely to be statistically significant in unadjusted models or models controlling for basic family characteristics. Associations were less likely to be statistically significant when other measures of family connectedness were included. Relatively few analyses used sophisticated empirical techniques available to control for confounders in secondary data. More research is required to establish whether or not the relationship between family dinners and risky adolescent behaviors is an artifact of underlying confounders. We recommend that

  19. Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...

  20. Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

  1. A Framework for Estimating Long Term Driver Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Gadepally

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a framework for estimation of long term driver behavior for autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. The Hybrid State System and Hidden Markov Model (HSS+HMM system discussed in this article is capable of describing the hybrid characteristics of driver and vehicle coupling. In our model, driving observations follow a continuous trajectory that can be measured to create continuous state estimates. These continuous state estimates can then be used to estimate the most likely driver state using decision-behavior coupling inherent to the HSS+HMM system. The HSS+HMM system is encompassed in a HSS structure and intersystem connectivity is determined by using signal processing and pattern recognition techniques. The proposed method is suitable for a number of autonomous and vehicle safety scenarios such as estimating intent of other vehicles near intersections or avoiding hazardous driving events such as unexpected lane changes. The long term driver behavior estimation system involves an extended HSS+HMM structure that is capable of including external information in the estimation process. Through the grafting and pruning of metastates, the HSS+HMM system can be dynamically updated to best represent driver choices given external information. Three application examples are also provided to elucidate the theoretical system.

  2. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  3. Collective animal behavior from Bayesian estimation and probability matching.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso Pérez-Escudero

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is mainly based on empirical fits to observations, with less emphasis in obtaining first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching. In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability equal to the Bayesian-estimated probability that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior.

  4. An estimation method for basemat uplift behavior of NPP buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, N.; Ino, S.; Kurimoto, O.; Miake, M.

    2005-01-01

    It is important to accurately estimate the effects of strong earthquake motions on the basemat uplift behavior and structural responses for the seismic design of nuclear power plant buildings. In this paper, an analysis model which describes the soil part using the 3 dimensional FEM was proposed to be used when the ground contact ratio is low, and the validity of this model was confirmed. Furthermore, investigations using the model were carried out where the attaching force under the basemat was taken into account, in order to more realistically estimate the basemat uplift behavior. The effects in the case of the building being embedded were also investigated. (authors)

  5. Depression and HIV risk behavior practices among at risk women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Hugh; Elifson, Kirk W; Sterk, Claire E

    2008-01-01

    In this study, we examined the relationship between depression and HIV-related risk behavior practices in a sample of 250 at risk, predominantly African American women living in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. Interviews were conducted between August 1997 and August 2000. Street outreach efforts were used to identify potential study participants, with further expansion of the sample via targeted sampling and ethnographic mapping procedures. Our conceptual model hypothesized a relationship between depression and HIV risk in which depression and condom-related attitudes were construed as intervening (or mediating) variables. A multivariate analysis was used to determine the relationship between depression and women's risk behaviors. The results showed that depression was a key-mediating variable, having its primary influence on women's risky practices through its impact upon their attitudes toward using condoms. Factors associated with depression, included religiosity, closeness of family relationships, financial problems, childhood maltreatment experiences, and drug-related problems. The implications of these findings for prevention and intervention efforts are: (1) heightening faith community involvement and religious participation to decrease depression; (2) working with women whose familial bonds are in need of strengthening to combat depression; (3) providing mental health and counseling services to women who were emotionally and/or sexually abused during their formative years seems to help these women to recover from unresolved issues that may be fueling depression; (4) assisting at risk women who need training in money management issues to minimize their risk for depression; and (5) helping women drug abusers to receive treatment for their drug problems to combat their depression and lower their HIV risk.

  6. Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, F.W.

    1979-01-01

    The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)

  7. Political risk in fair market value estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruy, H.J.; Hartsock, J.H.

    1996-01-01

    Political risk arises from unstable governments, commercial establishments and infrastructure as well as labor unrest. All these factors vary from country to country and from time to time. Banks and insurance companies quantify these risks, but they are reluctant to divulge their opinions for fear of alienating possible customers that have been assigned a high risk. An investment in a fixed property such as an oil and gas lease, concession or other mineral interest is subject to political risk. No one will deny that money to be received several years in the future has a greater value today in a country with a stable government, stable tax regime, a sound economy and reliable labor force than in a Third World country where a revolution is brewing. Even in stable countries, the risk of tax law changes, exorbitant environmental production regulations and cleanup costs may vary. How do these factors affect fair market value and how are these calculations made? An important consideration discussed in this paper is the treatment of capital investments

  8. The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

  9. IMF sector behavior estimated from geomagnetic data at South Pole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsushita, S.; Xu, W.h.

    1981-01-01

    IMF sector behavior which has previously been estimated from the geomagnetic data at Godhavn is confirmed by study of the data at South Pole for 1959--1970 with the same estimation technique, taking the difference between northern and southern hemispheres into consideration. A method to improve (about 18%) the agreement between assigned and actual sector structures by study of the data at the two stations is suggested. Geomagnetic disturbance effects on sector estimation are discussed, and reversed sector effects in winter are given special emphasis

  10. Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

    2011-01-01

    When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

  11. Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

    2009-01-01

    Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

  12. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  13. Application of activity sensors for estimating behavioral patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Caleb P.; Cain, James W.; Cox, Robert D.

    2016-01-01

    The increasing use of Global Positioning System (GPS) collars in habitat selection studies provides large numbers of precise location data points with reduced field effort. However, inclusion of activity sensors in many GPS collars also grants the potential to remotely estimate behavioral state. Thus, only using GPS collars to collect location data belies their full capabilities. Coupling behavioral state with location data would allow researchers and managers to refine habitat selection models by using diel behavioral state changes to partition fine-scale temporal shifts in habitat selection. We tested the capability of relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors to estimate behavior throughout diel periods using free-ranging female elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, USA, 2013–2014. Collars recorded cumulative number of movements (hits) per 15-min recording period immediately preceding GPS fixes at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 hr. We measured diel behavioral patterns of focal elk, categorizing active (i.e., foraging, traveling, vigilant, grooming) and inactive (i.e., resting) states. Active behaviors (foraging, traveling) produced more average hits (0.87 ± 0.69 hits/min, 4.0 ± 2.2 hits/min, respectively; 95% CI) and inactive (resting) behavior fewer hits (−1.1 ± 0.61 95% CI). We differentiated active and inactive behavioral states with a bootstrapped threshold of 5.9 ± 3.9 hits/15-min recording period. Mean cumulative activity-sensor hits corresponded with observed diel behavioral patterns: hits increased during crepuscular (0600, 1800 hr) observations when elk were most active (0000–0600 hr: d = 0.19; 1200–1800 hr: d = 0.64) and decreased during midday and night (0000 hr, 1200 hr) when elk were least active (1800–0000 hr: d = −0.39; 0600–1200 hr: d = −0.43). Even using relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors, managers can

  14. Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed

  15. Risk estimation for LCF crack initiation

    OpenAIRE

    Schmitz, Sebastian; Rollmann, Georg; Gottschalk, Hanno; Krause, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    An accurate risk assessment for fatigue damage is of vital importance for the design and service of today's turbomachinery components. We present an approach for quantifying the probability of crack initiation due to surface driven low-cycle fatigue (LCF). This approach is based on the theory of failure-time processes and takes inhomogeneous stress fields and size effects into account. The method has been implemented as a finite-element postprocessor which uses quadrature formulae of higher o...

  16. Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardis, E.

    2002-01-01

    The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21. century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. (author)

  17. Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

    1996-01-01

    Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

  18. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System: 2011 National Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) monitors six priority health-risk behaviors that contribute markedly to the leading causes of death, disability, and social problems among youth and adults in the United States. These behaviors, often established during childhood and early adolescence, include: (1) Behaviors that contribute to…

  19. Family structure and risk behaviors: the role of the family meal in assessing likelihood of adolescent risk behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldfarb S

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Samantha Goldfarb, Will L Tarver, Bisakha Sen Department of Health Care Organization and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA Background: Previous literature has asserted that family meals are a key protective factor for certain adolescent risk behaviors. It is suggested that the frequency of eating with the family is associated with better psychological well-being and a lower risk of substance use and delinquency. However, it is unclear whether there is evidence of causal links between family meals and adolescent health-risk behaviors. Purpose: The purpose of this article is to review the empirical literature on family meals and adolescent health behaviors and outcomes in the US. Data sources: A search was conducted in four academic databases: Social Sciences Full Text, Sociological Abstracts, PsycINFO®, and PubMed/MEDLINE. Study selection: We included studies that quantitatively estimated the relationship between family meals and health-risk behaviors. Data extraction: Data were extracted on study sample, study design, family meal measurement, outcomes, empirical methods, findings, and major issues. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria for the review that measured the relationship between frequent family meals and various risk-behavior outcomes. The outcomes considered by most studies were alcohol use (n=10, tobacco use (n=9, and marijuana use (n=6. Other outcomes included sexual activity (n=2; depression, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempts (n=4; violence and delinquency (n=4; school-related issues (n=2; and well-being (n=5. The associations between family meals and the outcomes of interest were most likely to be statistically significant in unadjusted models or models controlling for basic family characteristics. Associations were less likely to be statistically significant when other measures of family connectedness were included. Relatively few analyses used

  20. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  1. Improving measurement of injection drug risk behavior using item response theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janulis, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Recent research highlights the multiple steps to preparing and injecting drugs and the resultant viral threats faced by drug users. This research suggests that more sensitive measurement of injection drug HIV risk behavior is required. In addition, growing evidence suggests there are gender differences in injection risk behavior. However, the potential for differential item functioning between genders has not been explored. To explore item response theory as an improved measurement modeling technique that provides empirically justified scaling of injection risk behavior and to examine for potential gender-based differential item functioning. Data is used from three studies in the National Institute on Drug Abuse's Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. A two-parameter item response theory model was used to scale injection risk behavior and logistic regression was used to examine for differential item functioning. Item fit statistics suggest that item response theory can be used to scale injection risk behavior and these models can provide more sensitive estimates of risk behavior. Additionally, gender-based differential item functioning is present in the current data. Improved measurement of injection risk behavior using item response theory should be encouraged as these models provide increased congruence between construct measurement and the complexity of injection-related HIV risk. Suggestions are made to further improve injection risk behavior measurement. Furthermore, results suggest direct comparisons of composite scores between males and females may be misleading and future work should account for differential item functioning before comparing levels of injection risk behavior.

  2. Behavior Risk Factors Among Russian Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anischenko, Aleksander; Arhangelskaya, Anna; Klenov, Michael; Burdukova, Ekaterina; Ogarev, Valrii; Ignatov, Nikolay; Osadchenko, Irina; Gurevich, Konstantin

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To analyze the prevalence of risk factors among Russian students. Methods In this study, 834 students were included from five Federal universities which were localized in four Federal regions of Russian Federation. Future doctors, school teachers, and wellness trainers were included in this study. Students were specifically asked about smoking, physical activity International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and food preference. Waist, hip, weight, and height were measured. Results The region of study and ethnic group were not influenced with respect to age and body mass index ( p > .1), while all other factors had a significant influence ( p students in comparison with those in future teachers and wellness instructors ( p obesity (due to levels of body mass index and waist-hip ratio) were found in medical students. Perspective Special programs to prevent the most common behavior risk factors in future medical doctors have to be designed.

  3. Latina Adolescents Health Risk Behaviors and Suicidal Ideation and Suicide Attempts: Results from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2001-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, James H; Khubchandani, Jagdish

    2017-06-01

    Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts are more common in Latina adolescents than White or African-American adolescents. Several health risk behaviors have been identified as being associated with Latina adolescent suicides. However, to date, no study has identified the consistency and stability of these risk behaviors over time. This study utilized the national Youth Risk Behaviors Survey from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the prevalence of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and health risk behaviors associated with suicidal behaviors in Latina adolescents. Our analysis found the prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts varied significantly over the 13-year study span, decreasing from 2001 to 2009 and increased from 2011 to 2013. The analyses found 11 health risk behaviors that were significantly associated with both suicidal ideation and suicide attempts that did not vary over time. The stability of these 11 health risk behaviors associated with suicidal behaviors could be useful to school personnel to identify early at risk Latina adolescents who may benefit from school and community mental health resources.

  4. Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

    2018-04-01

    The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

  5. Estimating and comparing risks in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llewellyn, Gareth

    1998-01-01

    The current position of power generation in UK is balanced. Recently 16 advanced gas cooled reactors are in operation. Privatisation of most power generation plants is done. Some trialing of environmental premia is performed. Environmental management is very strong. Nuclear power status in the UK is as follows: 16 Advanced gas cooled reactors, 1 Pressurised water reactor, Nuclear Electric/Scottish Nuclear in commercial operation; out of 18 Magnox reactors in operation 3 are decommissioned, 8 are due to stop operating before 2000. Non-nuclear fuel used are coal, oil, gas, hydropower. Besides carbon dioxide emissions emerging issue is rad waste disposal. This presentation deals with the strategic risk assessment in power generation sector

  6. An interim UK response to revised risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)

  7. ICRP risk estimates - an alternative view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, K.Z.

    1987-01-01

    This criticism of the worth of the ICRP Main Commission spans 60 years, reviewed by a member of the Commission. Beginning in 1960 two serious radiation exposure problems (occupational exposure in uranium mines and population exposure from testing of nuclear weapons) came to their attention. One might have expected ICRP to be the first to try to reduce these exposures but it was conspicuous by its silence. In 1958 ICRP set limits of exposure for radiation workers and member of the public. Nineteen years later (1977) when it was realized that the risk of radiation induced cancer was ten to thirty times what it was perceived to be in 1958, ICRP might have been expected to recommend a major reduction in permissible exposure levels, but to the dismay of some it increased them. It was also a great disappointment when in 1977, levels of MPC of radionuclides in air, water and food were increased for a large fraction of the more dangerous radionuclides. The reactor accident at Chernobyl calls for a number of new ICRP recommendations. When can we expect them? (author)

  8. Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

  9. Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Culture's influence on consumers : exploratory behavior and risk taking

    OpenAIRE

    Soares, Ana Maria; Farhangmehr, Minoo; Shoham, Aviv

    2003-01-01

    This theoretical paper addresses the influence of culture on risk taking and exploratory behavior. The cultural dimensions of long-term orientation, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, collectivism, and masculinity (Hofstede, 1984, 2001) are hypothesized to influence risk-taking behavior in general, and, through it, exploratory consumption behavior, risk taking, and risk attitudes and perception towards specific products. We also propose an empirical study to test the emergent model. Fu...

  11. Validity of Suicidality Items from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey in a High School Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Alexis; Klonsky, E. David

    2011-01-01

    The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) is used by the United States Centers for Disease Control to estimate rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors in adolescents. This study investigated the validity of the YRBS suicidality items by examining their relationship to criterion variables including loneliness, anxiety, depression, substance use, and…

  12. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dankar Fida

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

  13. Differential Effects for Sexual Risk Behavior: An Application of Finite Mixture Regression

    OpenAIRE

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Kugler, Kari C.; Mathur, Charu

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the multiple factors that place individuals at risk for sexual risk behavior is critical for developing effective intervention programs. Regression-based methods are commonly used to estimate the average effects of risk factors, however such results can be difficult to translate to prevention implications at the individual level. Although differential effects can be examined to some extent by including interaction terms, as risk factors and moderators are added to the model inte...

  14. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

  16. Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S.

    2016-01-01

    We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation. PMID:27047418

  17. Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María de la O eGonzález

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

  18. Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S

    2016-01-01

    We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

  19. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  20. Comparison of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schommer, J C; Sullivan, D L; Wiederholt, J B

    1994-01-01

    To compare the rates reported for provision of types of information conveyed by pharmacists among studies for which different methods of estimation were used and different dispensing situations were studied. Empiric studies conducted in the US, reported from 1982 through 1992, were selected from International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, and noncomputerized sources. Empiric studies were selected for review if they reported the provision of at least three types of counseling information. Four components of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors were extracted and summarized in a table: (1) sample type and area, (2) sampling unit, (3) sample size, and (4) data collection method. In addition, situations that were investigated in each study were compiled. Twelve studies met our inclusion criteria. Patients were interviewed via telephone in four studies and were surveyed via mail in two studies. Pharmacists were interviewed via telephone in one study and surveyed via mail in two studies. For three studies, researchers visited pharmacy sites for data collection using the shopper method or observation method. Studies with similar methods and situations provided similar results. Data collected by using patient surveys, pharmacist surveys, and observation methods can provide useful estimations of pharmacist counseling behaviors if researchers measure counseling for specific, well-defined dispensing situations.

  1. Cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia : The effect of communicating risk factors on intended healthy behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokslag, Anouk; Kroeze, Willemieke; de Groot, Christianne J.M.; Teunissen, Pim W.

    Objective: We studied the effect of communicating cardiovascular risk factors on intended healthy behavior in women with a history of preeclampsia or uncomplicated pregnancy. Methods: Intention for healthy behavior was assessed before and after cardiovascular risk assessment. Changes were calculated

  2. Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huda, W.; He, W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)

  3. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  4. [Risk behavior among farmers from Podkarpacie Provinece].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binkowska-Bury, Monika; Penar-Zadarko, Beata; Marć, Małgorzata; Sobolewski, Marek

    2010-01-01

    Increasing awareness of science and medical environments and the society in the scope of behavioral conditioning of many diseases (e.g. cardiovascular diseases, tumors and injuries motivates to shape pro-health behaviors and eliminate harmful habit also in rural areas. There is a need for constant monitoring of behaviors related to health among rural areas inhabitants. The results enriches present state of knowledge in that scope, as well as might be use to increase the effectiveness of health promotion and health education activities and shape pro-health lifestyle among rural areas inhabitants, and particularly among farmers. The aim of the study was to acquaint socio-demographic features related to risk behaviors (tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking) among farmers from Podkarpacie Provinece. The study was carried out between January and December 2009 among 755 farmers with national health insurance KRUS for minimum last year, living in Podkarpacie Provinece, whom had their own farm business, owned a farm either spouse or household member works on the farm. The study population was purposefully chosen. The study was conducted using a diagnostics survey method with questionnaire including above all questions considering tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and demographic issues. Results from questionnaires were analyzed using the statistical package STATISTICA 9.0 (Statsoft). The gathered data was statistically prepared using chi-square test, logistic regression model with stepwise and progressive regression. Based on results it was assumed that frequency of tobacco smoking in the studied group values 31.5%. More frequent smoke: men than women, people with high economic status and those evaluating their Heath state as a good one. Gender and material status are strong predictors of tobacco smoking among farmers. Age and level of education do not influence on tobacco smoking among studied farmers. Frequency of alcohol drinking in the studied group values 82.0%. More

  5. Health risk behavior of rural secondary school students in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwede, C K; McDermott, R J; Westhoff, W W; Mushore, M; Mushore, T; Chitsika, E; Majange, C S; Chauke, P

    2001-10-01

    A socioculturally appropriate health risk behavior instrument, modeled after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), was administered to 717 secondary school students in a rural area of Zimbabwe. Comparisons of risk behaviors by gender and school grade were made using univariate procedures and multiple logistic regression. Males were significantly more likely than females to have had sexual intercourse (odds ratio = 5.02, p < .0001) and to report drug use behaviors. Males also were significantly more likely to report early initiation (by age 13 years) of alcohol use, cigarette smoking, and marijuana use. School site violence and drug use behaviors also were prevalent in this sample. An interaction between gender and grade was evident for some behaviors. Additional research may further the understanding of these risk behaviors and facilitate development of effective, culturally relevant risk reduction programs.

  6. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): High School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. High School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  7. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): Middle School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. Middle School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  8. Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

    2006-01-01

    Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

  9. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  10. Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    assessing behavioral and cognitive markers of risk for suicide among U.S. Army National Guard personnel. Journal of Environmental Research and Public Policy...effective ways to prevent injury and death from suicide • No reliable method for predicting suicide risk in military personnel • Behavioral (e.g...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0632 TITLE: Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Brian

  11. Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

    1981-09-01

    This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

  12. Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

    2013-01-01

    Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

  13. Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

  14. Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, G.W.

    1979-01-01

    The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

  15. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  16. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  17. Assessing university students' sexual risk behaviors as predictors of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohde, Rebecca L; Adjei Boakye, Eric; Christopher, Kara M; Geneus, Christian J; Walker, Ronald J; Varvares, Mark A; Osazuwa-Peters, Nosayaba

    2018-05-09

    There exists a significant gap in vaccine coverage of the human papillomavirus (HPV) among college-aged students. This study assessed sexual risk-taking behavior among university students and analyzed predictors of HPV vaccine initiation and completion in this population. Data (n = 746) were from an anonymous online, cross-sectional survey distributed to university students, between the ages of 19-26 years, at a private Midwestern university. Both chi-square and multivariable logistics regression models estimated the association between sociodemographic characteristics and sexual risk factors (including number of vaginal sexual partners, number of oral sexual partners, initiation of oral sex, and initiation of vaginal sex), with HPV vaccine initiation and completion. A significant number of participants (40%) had not received a single dose of the HPV vaccine series. Of those who initiated the series, more than half (51%) did not achieve completion. Additionally, a greater number of participants have had multiple (4 or more) oral sexual partners than vaginal sexual partners (25.7% vs. 20.3%). After adjusting for covariates, it was found that sexual risk factors were not significantly associated with HPV vaccine initiation or completion. HPV vaccine initiation and completion rates are suboptimal among university students. High levels of sexual-risk taking behaviors associated with HPV infection persist, yet are not significant predictors of HPV vaccine behaviors in this age group. To increase uptake among 18-26-year-old students, future public health interventions should focus on HPV vaccine education and uptake across the entire population, irrespective of sexual risk profile. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  19. Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grahn, D.

    1990-01-01

    The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

  20. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  1. Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

  2. Health risk behavior of youth in foster care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramkowski, Bridget; Kools, Susan; Paul, Steven; Boyer, Cherrie B; Monasterio, Erica; Robbins, Nancy

    2009-05-01

    Many adolescent health problems are predominantly caused by risk behavior. Foster adolescents have disproportionately poor health; therefore, identification of risk behavior is critical. Data from a larger study were analyzed to investigate the health risk behavior of 56 youth in foster care using the Child Health and Illness Profile-Adolescent Edition. Data indicated that youth in foster care had some increased risk behavior when compared with a normative adolescent population. Younger adolescents and those in relative placement had less risky behavior. Risk behavior was increased for youth in foster care when they were in group homes, had experienced a parental death, or had a history of physical or emotional abuse or attempted suicide. These results point to areas of strength and vulnerability for youth in foster care and suggest areas for clinicians and caregivers of these adolescents to focus interventions towards harm reduction and enhancement of resiliency.

  3. Sexual Orientation and Behavior of Adult Jews in Israel and the Association With Risk Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mor, Zohar; Davidovich, Udi

    2016-08-01

    Estimating the size of key risk groups susceptible to HIV/sexually transmitted diseases (STI) is necessary for establishment of interventions and budget allocation. This study aimed to identify various dimensions of sexual orientation and practices in Israel, and correlate the findings with sexual risk behavior (SRB). It used a random representative sample of the Jewish population aged 18-44 years who completed online questionnaires regarding their self-identified sexual orientation, attraction and practices, and SRB. Concordant heterosexuals were those who self-reported heterosexual identity, were attracted and had sex only with the opposite gender. National estimates regarding prevalence of gay, lesbian, and bisexual men and women were based on the civil census. The sample included 997 men and 1005 women, of whom 11.3 and 15.2 % were attracted to the same-gender, 10.2 and 8.7 % reported lifetime same-gender encounters, while 8.2 and 4.8 % self-identified as gay or bisexual men and lesbian or bisexual women, respectively. The estimated population of self-identified Jewish gay or bisexual men and lesbian or bisexual women aged 18-44 in Israel was 94,176, and 57,671, respectively. SRB was more common among self-identified gays or bisexual men and among discordant heterosexual men and women. Those who reported same-gender sexual practices reported greater SRB than those who only had opposite-gender encounters. Interestingly, SRB among discordant heterosexuals was associated with same-sex behavior rather than attraction. Health practitioners should increase their awareness of sexual diversity among their clientele, and should recognize that risk for HIV/STI may exist among self-identified heterosexuals, who may not disclose their actual sexual attraction or practices.

  4. Estimated prevalence of compulsive buying behavior in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koran, Lorrin M; Faber, Ronald J; Aboujaoude, Elias; Large, Michael D; Serpe, Richard T

    2006-10-01

    Compulsive buying (uncontrolled urges to buy, with resulting significant adverse consequences) has been estimated to affect from 1.8% to 16% of the adult U.S. population. To the authors' knowledge, no study has used a large general population sample to estimate its prevalence. The authors conducted a random sample, national household telephone survey in the spring and summer of 2004 and interviewed 2,513 adults. The interviews addressed buying attitudes and behaviors, their consequences, and the respondents' financial and demographic data. The authors used a clinically validated screening instrument, the Compulsive Buying Scale, to classify respondents as either compulsive buyers or not. The rate of response was 56.3%, which compares favorably with rates in federal national health surveys. The cooperation rate was 97.6%. Respondents included a higher percentage of women and people ages 55 and older than the U.S. adult population. The estimated point prevalence of compulsive buying among respondents was 5.8% (by gender: 6.0% for women, 5.5% for men). The gender-adjusted prevalence rate was 5.8%. Compared with other respondents, compulsive buyers were younger, and a greater proportion reported incomes under 50,000 US dollars. They exhibited more maladaptive responses on most consumer behavior measures and were more than four times less likely to pay off credit card balances in full. A study using clinically valid interviews is needed to evaluate these results. The emotional and functional toll of compulsive buying and the frequency of comorbid psychiatric disorders suggests that studies of treatments and social interventions are warranted.

  5. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-10-15

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.

  6. Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2008-01-01

    Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks

  7. Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.

  8. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks

  9. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  10. Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leemans, Eva L.; Willems, Tineke P.; van der Laan, Maarten J.; Slump, Cornelis H.; Zeebregts, Clark J.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. Methods: A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles

  11. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  12. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  13. Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  14. Adolescent suicide and health risk behaviors: Rhode Island's 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yongwen; Perry, Donald K; Hesser, Jana E

    2010-05-01

    Suicide is the third-leading cause of death among high school students in the U.S. This study examined the relationships among indicators of depressed mood, suicidal thoughts, suicide attempts, and demographics and risk behaviors in Rhode Island high school students. Data from Rhode Island's 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were utilized for this study. The statewide sample contained 2210 randomly selected public high school students. Data were analyzed in 2008 to model for each of five depressed mood/suicide indicators using multivariable logistic regression. By examining depressed mood and suicide indicators through a multivariable approach, the strongest predictors were identified, for multiple as well as specific suicide indicators. These predictors included being female, having low grades, speaking a language other than English at home, being lesbian/gay/bisexual/unsure of sexual orientation, not going to school as a result of feeling unsafe, having been a victim of forced sexual intercourse, being a current cigarette smoker, and having a self-perception of being overweight. The strength of associations between three factors (immigrant status, feeling unsafe, and having forced sex) and suicide indicators adds new information about potential predictors of suicidal behavior in adolescents. 2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

    2012-07-01

    Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-01-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports

  17. Unwanted online sexual solicitation and online sexual risk behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baumgartner, S.E.; Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.; Yan, Z.

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, there have been growing concerns about online sexual solicitations and online sexual risk behaviors. Recent studies suggest that only a minority of adolescents is confronted with online sexual solicitations or engages in online sexual risk behavior. Whereas more girls encounter

  18. Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2015-01-01

    Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

  19. Environmental risk factors for REM sleep behavior disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postuma, R B; Montplaisir, J Y; Pelletier, A

    2012-01-01

    Idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder is a parasomnia characterized by dream enactment and is commonly a prediagnostic sign of parkinsonism and dementia. Since risk factors have not been defined, we initiated a multicenter case-control study to assess environmental and lifestyle risk factors...... for REM sleep behavior disorder....

  20. Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne MacKay

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

  1. Developmental pathways from maltreatment to risk behavior: Sexual behavior as a catalyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negriff, Sonya

    2018-05-01

    Although delinquency, substance use, and sexual activity are established to be highly intercorrelated, the extant research provides minimal evidence in support of one particular sequence of risk behavior or on the cascade effects from maltreatment. The present study tested a longitudinal model incorporating maltreatment, deviant peers, sexual behavior, delinquency, and substance use to elucidate the sequential pathway(s) from maltreatment to each specific risk behavior throughout adolescence. Data came from a longitudinal study on the effects of maltreatment on adolescent development (N = 454) with four study assessments from early (Time 1 M age = 10.98) to late adolescence (Time 4 M age = 18.22). Results from the cross-lagged model showed a sequence from maltreatment to sexual behavior (Time 1), to delinquency (Time 2), to sexual behavior (Time 3), to substance use and delinquency (Time 4). These findings support sexual behavior as the initial risk behavior that is the catalyst for engagement in more advanced risk behaviors across adolescence.

  2. Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badar Nadeem Ashraf

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, risk-based capital requirements have been reinforced in the new Basel III Accord to counter excessive bank risk-taking behavior. However, prior theoretical as well as empirical literature that studies the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior is inconclusive. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior, using a panel dataset of 21 listed commercial banks of Pakistan over the period 2005–2012. Purely regulatory measures of bank capital, capital adequacy ratio, and bank assets portfolio risk, risk-weighted assets to total assets ratio, are used for the main analysis. Recently developed small N panel methods (bias corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC method and system GMM method with instruments collapse option are used to control for panel fixed effects, dynamic dependent variables, and endogenous independent variables. Overall, the results suggest that commercial banks have reduced assets portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. Results also confirm that all banks having risk-based capital ratios either lower or higher than the regulatory required limits, have decreased portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. The results are robust to alternative proxies of bank risk-taking, alternative estimation methods, and alternative samples.

  3. Relationships between bullying, school climate, and student risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Jennifer; Cornell, Dewey; Konold, Timothy

    2012-09-01

    This study examined whether characteristics of a positive school climate were associated with lower student risk behavior in a sample of 3,687 high school students who completed the School Climate Bullying Survey and questions about risk behavior from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS). Confirmatory factor analyses established fit for 20 items with three hypothesized school climate scales measuring (1) prevalence of bullying and teasing; (2) aggressive attitudes; and (3) student willingness to seek help. Structural equation modeling established the relationship of these measures with student reports of risk behavior. Multigroup analyses identified differential effects across gender and race. A positive school climate could be an important protective factor in preventing student risk behavior.

  4. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  5. Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2017-01-01

    Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

  6. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

  7. Model dependencies of risk aversion and working interest estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    Working interest, W, and risk adjusted value, RAV, are evaluated using both Cozzolino's formula for exponential dependence of risk aversion and also for a hyperbolic tangent dependence. In addition, the general method is given of constructing an RAV formula for any functional choice of risk aversion dependence. Two examples are given to illustrate how the model dependencies influence choices of working interest and risk adjusted value depending on whether the expected value of the project is positive or negative. In general the Cozzolino formula provides a more conservative position for risk than does the hyperbolic tangent formula, reflecting the difference in corporate attitudes to risk aversion. The commonly used Cozzolino formula is shown to have simple exact arithmetic expressions for maximum working interest and maximum RAV; the hyperbolic tangent formula has approximate analytic expressions. Both formulae also yield approximate analytical expressions for the working interest yielding a risk neutral RAV of zero. These arithmetic results are useful for making quick estimates of working interest ranges and risk adjusted values. (Author)

  8. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

  9. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  10. Methods for estimating risks to nuclear power plants from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, D.H.; Hartman, M.G.; Robbins, T.R.

    1975-01-01

    Nuclear power plants sited on land near shipping lanes or offshore can be exposed to potential risks if there is nearby ship or barge traffic which involves the transport of hazardous cargo. Methods that have been developed for estimating the degree of risk are summarized. Of concern are any accidents which could lead to a release or spill of the hazardous cargo, or to an explosion. A probability of occurrence of the order of 10 -7 per year is a general guideline which has been used to judge whether or not the risk from hazards created by accidents is acceptable. This guideline has been followed in the risk assessment discussed in this paper. 19 references

  11. Maternal medical risks during pregnancy and childhood externalizing behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dylan B; Vaughn, Michael G

    2018-04-25

    Research has indicated that maternal health during the prenatal period and at delivery carries far reaching significance for the development of offspring. Even so, the role of the accumulation of maternal medical risks during pregnancy in the development of externalizing behavior during childhood has generally been overlooked. The present study investigates whether the accumulation of maternal medical risks during the prenatal period is positively associated with childhood externalizing behavior, and whether this association is stronger among male offspring. We examined a large, nationally representative sample of children who participated in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). Information concerning maternal medical history, including the presence of a number of medical risks during pregnancy, was obtained through hospital records. A subsample of children with both parent and teacher reports of externalizing behavior during kindergarten was employed in the present study. A greater number of maternal medical risks during pregnancy increased the odds of childhood externalizing behavior across settings, but only among male offspring. The predicted probability of persistent externalizing behavior among males increased from .084 in the absence of maternal medical risks during pregnancy to .241 in the presence of three or more maternal medical risks during pregnancy. Our findings suggest that maternal medical risks during the prenatal period can have far-reaching consequences for the behavioral development of male offspring. Treatment of medical risks among expectant mothers may have the added benefit of reducing the likelihood of childhood externalizing behavior among male progeny. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Behavior is a major determinant of predation risk in zooplankton

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almeda, Rodrigo; van Someren Gréve, Hans; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    as prey for different predatory copepods. Copepods with “active” feeding behaviors (feeding-current and cruising feeders) showed significantly higher mortality from predation (~2–8 times) than similarly sized copepods with low motility feeding behavior (ambush feeders). Copepod males, which have a more...... active motile behavior than females (mate-seeking behavior), suffered a higher predation mortality than females in most of the experiments. However, the predation risk for mate-searching behavior in copepods varied depending on feeding behavior with ambush feeders consistently having the greatest......Zooplankton exhibit different small-scale motile behaviors related to feeding and mating activities. These different motile behaviors may result in different levels of predation risk, which may partially determine the structure of planktonic communities. Here, we experimentally determined predation...

  13. Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kin Keung Lai

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the increasingly globalized economy these days, the major crude oil markets worldwide are seeing higher level of integration, which results in higher level of dependency and transmission of risks among different markets. Thus the risk of the typical multi-asset crude oil portfolio is influenced by dynamic correlation among different assets, which has both normal and transient behaviors. This paper proposes a novel multivariate wavelet denoising based approach for estimating Portfolio Value at Risk (PVaR. The multivariate wavelet analysis is introduced to analyze the multi-scale behaviors of the correlation among different markets and the portfolio volatility behavior in the higher dimensional time scale domain. The heterogeneous data and noise behavior are addressed in the proposed multi-scale denoising based PVaR estimation algorithm, which also incorporatesthe mainstream time series to address other well known data features such as autocorrelation and volatility clustering. Empirical studies suggest that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark ExponentialWeighted Moving Average (EWMA and DCC-GARCH model, in terms of conventional performance evaluation criteria for the model reliability.

  14. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  15. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

  16. Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail

    2017-09-01

    The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.

  17. First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

    2017-01-01

    There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. [Parental practices and pedestrian risk behaviors in Chilean adolescents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Andrea C; Repetto, Paula B

    2014-08-01

    Traffic accidents are the second leading cause of death among adolescents and young adults in Chile. However, few studies have examined this behavior among this age group. Parental practices have a great influence on risk behaviors in adolescents, such as substance use, sexuality and violence, among others. Specifically, we propose that these practices will influence pedestrian risk behaviors among adolescents. To study the role of parental practices such as mother and father support, and behavioral control (monitoring and presence of rules) in pedestrian risk behaviors of teenagers. A sample of 470 adolescents attending schools in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile were studied. They answered a self-administered questionnaire in which they were asked about parental practices and pedestrian risk behaviors. Analyses were performed using descriptive and inferential statistics, using multiple regression. Paternal support and the presence of rules were protective factors for pedestrian risky behaviors. However, maternal support or monitoring did not influence these behaviors. Parental practices influence pedestrian behaviors of teenagers. The study provides further evidence for the importance of these practices in the development of behavioral self-regulation.

  20. Physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns are associated with selected adolescent health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Melissa C; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2006-04-01

    Little is known about how physical activity (PA), sedentary behavior, and various adolescent health risk behaviors are associated. The objective of this study was to examine relationships between PA and sedentary behavior patterns and an array of risk behaviors, including leading causes of adolescent morbidity/mortality. Nationally representative self-reported data were collected (National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health; wave I: 1994-1995; II: 1996; N = 11957). Previously developed and validated cluster analyses identified 7 homogeneous groups of adolescents sharing PA and sedentary behaviors. Poisson regression predicted the relative risk of health risk behaviors, other weekly activities, and self-esteem across the 7 PA/sedentary behavior clusters controlling for demographics and socioeconomic status. Main outcome measures were adolescent risk behaviors (eg, truancy, cigarette smoking, sexual intercourse, delinquency), other weekly activities (eg, work, academic performance, sleep), self-esteem. Relative to high television (TV) and video viewers, adolescents in clusters characterized by skating and video gaming, high overall sports and sports participation with parents, using neighborhood recreation center, strict parental control of TV, reporting few activities overall, and being active in school were less likely to participate in a range of risky behaviors, ranging from an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.42 (outcome: illegal drug use, cluster: strict parental control of TV) to 0.88 (outcome: violence, cluster: sports with parents). Active teens were less likely to have low self-esteem (eg, adolescents engaging in sports with parents, ARR: 0.73) and more likely to have higher grades (eg, active in school, ARR: 1.20). Participation in a range of PA-related behaviors, particularly those characterized by high parental sports/exercise involvement, was associated with favorable adolescent risk profiles. Adolescents with high TV/video viewership were less

  1. Health risk behavior among Thai youth: national survey 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirirassamee, Tawima; Sirirassamee, Buppha

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to establish the prevalence of risky health behaviors among Thai youth and to characterize the prevalence of these behaviors by gender, age group, educational status, and region. We analyzed data from a population-based, nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of 938 youth aged between 13 and 24 years, sampled from Bangkok and 4 regions of Thailand. The 2011 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System questionnaire was used to measure youth risk behaviors. This study finds that 15.9% of respondents had engaged in physical fights, and 8.1% had been cyber bullied. The prevalence of current cigarette smoking, alcohol, and marijuana use were 22.3%, 27.9%, and 2.3%, respectively. The prevalence of risky behaviors among Thai youth were found to be high, including behaviors that contribute to unintentional injuries and violence, unsafe sexual behaviors, and cigarette and alcohol consumption. © 2014 APJPH.

  2. Obesity-related behaviors among poor adolescents and young adults: Is social position associated with risk behaviors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranda Lucia Ritterman Weintraub

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This cross-sectional study examines multiple dimensions of social position in relation to obesity-related behaviors in an adolescent and young adult population. In addition to using conventional measures of social position, including parental education and household expenditures, we explore the usefulness of three youth-specific measures of social position—community and society subjective social status and school dropout status. Data is taken from a 2004 house-to-house survey of urban households within the bottom 20th percentile of income distribution within seven states in Mexico. A total of 5,321 Mexican adolescents, aged 12-22 years, provided information on obesity-related behaviors (e.g. diet, physical activity, sedentary behavior and indicators of subjective and objective social position. A parent in each household provided information on socioeconomic status of the parent and household. Ordinal logistic regressions are used to estimate the associations of parental, household and adolescent indicators of social position and obesity-related risk behaviors. Those adolescents with the highest odds of adopting obesity risk behaviors were the ones who perceived themselves as lower in social status in reference to their peer community and those who had dropped out of school. We found no significant associations between parental education or household expenditures and obesity-related risk behaviors. Immediate social factors in adolescents' lives may have a strong influence on their health-related behaviors. This study provides evidence for the usefulness of two particular measures, both of which are youth-specific. Adolescents and young adults who have dropped out of school and those with lower perceived relative social position within their community are more likely to be at-risk for obesity-related behaviors than those with higher relative social position. We conclude that youth-specific measures may be important in identifying the most at-risk

  3. Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bona

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

  4. Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    1999-01-01

    Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)

  5. Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

    1989-10-01

    Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)

  6. Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T

    2018-05-02

    Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged 3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Estimating the risk of cardio vascular diseases among pakistani diabetics using uk pds risk engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moazzam, A.; Amer, J.

    2015-01-01

    The concept of risk estimation of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is helpful for clinician to identifying high risk populations for their effective treatment. Latest studies recommended only initiating cardio-protective treatment in diabetic patients based on personalized CHD risk estimates so as to reduce undue harm from overly aggressive risk factor modification. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UK PDS) Risk Engine is a widely used tool to assess the risk of Cardio Vascular diseases (CVD) in diabetics. The literature search so far did not reveal any study of risk assessment among Pakistani Diabetics. Methods: This descriptive study is based on the data of 470 type-2 diabetics seen in Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore during 2011. The data of these 470 patients was analyzed through UKPDS Risk Engine. CHD risk was calculated. Results: The 10 years risk of CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 9.4%, 4.4%, 1.7% and 0.2% respectively. Conclusions: The present study show a lower risk of CVD occurring among Pakistani diabetics as compared to studies from western countries. (author)

  8. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. te Linde

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

  9. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2010 and Prior)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

  10. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2010 and prior)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

  11. Concurrent multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents in Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomsen Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple health risk behaviors (HRBs among adolescents pose a threat to their health, including HIV/AIDS. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol use, smoking, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors among youth have been shown to co-occur with each others. The objectives of this study was to estimate the prevalence of single and concurrent health risk behaviors and to explore how health risk behavior is associated with socio-demographic factors and peers' behaviors. Methods A cross sectional design was used to examine health risk behaviors of adolescents between the age 14 and 19 years living in the Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR. The study was conducted between June and August, 2008. An ordinal logistic regression model that simultaneously explored demographic factors and the influence of the behavior of peers on three categories of multiple HRBs (no risk, one risk, and two or more health risk behaviors was performed. Results A total of 1360 respondents, 669 (49.1% boys with mean age 16.7 ± 1.6 and 699 (50.9% girls aged 16.1 ± 1.5 were recruited into the study. The majority reported two or fewer risk behaviors. However, multiple risk behaviors increased with age for both sexes. About 46.8% (n = 637 reported no risk, 39.3 percent (n = 535 reported one risk, 8.1 percent (n = 110 reported two risks, and 5.8 percent reported more than two health risk behaviors. The protective factors among boys were school attendance (OR = .53, CI = .33-.86, being Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = .48, CI-.26-.90, while being above the age of 15 (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.33-3.60, Akha ethnicity (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.04-4.61, peer's smoking (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6, and peer's drinking alcohol (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.1-3.21 were significantly associated with the presence of multiple risk behaviors among boys. Having some education (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.06-0.45, and being of Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.80 were factors that

  12. Teacher Behavioral Practices: Relations to Student Risk Behaviors, Learning Barriers, and School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Andrew; Mcmahon, Susan D.; Coker, Crystal; Keys, Christopher B.

    2016-01-01

    Student behavioral problems pose a myriad of challenges for schools. In this study, we examine the relations among teacher and school-level constructs (i.e., teacher collaboration, supervision/discipline, instructional management), and student-related outcomes (i.e., high-risk behaviors, barriers to learning, student social-behavioral climate).…

  13. Adverse childhood experiences, gender, and HIV risk behaviors: Results from a population-based sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Fang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent HIV research suggested assessing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs as contributing factors of HIV risk behaviors. However, studies often focused on a single type of adverse experience and very few utilized population-based data. This population study examined the associations between ACE (individual and cumulative ACE score and HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS from 5 states. The sample consisted of 39,434 adults. Eight types of ACEs that included different types of child abuse and household dysfunctions before the age of 18 were measured. A cumulative score of ACEs was also computed. Logistic regression estimated of the association between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors using odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs for males and females separately. We found that ACEs were positively associated with HIV risk behaviors overall, but the associations differed between males and females in a few instances. While the cumulative ACE score was associated with HIV risk behaviors in a stepwise manner, the pattern varied by gender. For males, the odds of HIV risk increased at a significant level as long as they experienced one ACE, whereas for females, the odds did not increase until they experienced three or more ACEs. Future research should further investigate the gender-specific associations between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors. As childhood adversities are prevalent among general population, and such experiences are associated with increased risk behaviors for HIV transmission, service providers can benefit from the principles of trauma-informed practice.

  14. Pathological Internet Use and Risk-Behaviors among European Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony Durkee

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Risk-behaviors are a major contributor to the leading causes of morbidity among adolescents and young people; however, their association with pathological Internet use (PIU is relatively unexplored, particularly within the European context. The main objective of this study is to investigate the association between risk-behaviors and PIU in European adolescents. This cross-sectional study was conducted within the framework of the FP7 European Union project: Saving and Empowering Young Lives in Europe (SEYLE. Data on adolescents were collected from randomized schools within study sites across eleven European countries. PIU was measured using Young’s Diagnostic Questionnaire (YDQ. Risk-behaviors were assessed using questions procured from the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS. A total of 11,931 adolescents were included in the analyses: 43.4% male and 56.6% female (M/F: 5179/6752, with a mean age of 14.89 ± 0.87 years. Adolescents reporting poor sleeping habits and risk-taking actions showed the strongest associations with PIU, followed by tobacco use, poor nutrition and physical inactivity. Among adolescents in the PIU group, 89.9% were characterized as having multiple risk-behaviors. The significant association observed between PIU and risk-behaviors, combined with a high rate of co-occurrence, underlines the importance of considering PIU when screening, treating or preventing high-risk behaviors among adolescents.

  15. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  16. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  17. Do Family Structure and Poverty Affect Sexual Risk Behaviors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    Family Structure, Poverty and Sexual Risk Behaviors ... Johannesburg, South Africa; 2Demography and Social Statistics Department, .... to high rate of adolescent sexual promiscuity as a ..... birth control and consequences of premarital sex.

  18. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes data on adult's diet, physical activity, and weight status from Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. This data is used for DNPAO's Data,...

  19. Sexual risk behavior among HIV-positive persons in Jamaica ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    positive status potentially place their partners at risk for HIV transmission and other sexually transmitted infections. The study findings highlight the need to promote safe sexual behaviors and a positive social environment for people living with ...

  20. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes data on adolescent's diet, physical activity, and weight status from Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS). This data is used for...

  1. Trade Openness and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Emerging Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badar Nadeem Ashraf

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the impact of trade openness on bank risk-taking behavior. Using a panel dataset of 291 banks from 37 emerging countries over the period from 1998 to 2012, we find that higher trade openness decreases bank risk-taking. The results are robust when we use alternative bank risk-taking proxies and alternative estimation methods. We argue that trade openness provides diversification opportunities to banks in lending activities, which decrease overall bank risk. Further to this end, we observe that higher trade openness helps domestic banks to smooth out income volatility and decreases the impact of a financial crisis on banks.

  2. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Holst, Klaus K.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

    2014-01-01

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experience...... events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component...... the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence...... over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer...

  3. Technical bases for estimating fission product behavior during LWR accidents. Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-06-01

    The objective of this report is to provide the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public with a description of the best technical information currently available for estimating the release of radioactive material during postulated reactor accidents, and to identify where gaps exist in our knowledge. This report focuses on those low probability-high consequence accidents involving severe damage to the reactor core and core meltdown that dominate the risk to the public. Furthermore, in this report particular emphasis is placed on the accident behavior of radioactive iodine, as (1) radioiodine is predicted to be a major contributor to public exposure, (2) current regulatory accident analysis procedures focus on iodine, and (3) several technical issues have been raised recently about the magnitude of iodine release. The generation, transport, and attenuation of aerosols were also investigated in some detail to assess their effect on fission product release estimates and to determine the performance of engineered safety features under accident conditions exceeding their design bases

  4. Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.

    1998-01-01

    In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4

  5. Estimation of foetus risk from x-ray pelvimetric examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iba, Shozo; Sato, Kazuichi

    1983-01-01

    X-ray pelvimetric examinations are carried out for the purpose of diagnosing the cephalo pelvic disproportion at terminal pregnancy and they are still an excellent method, being performed more often than other examinations. However the invitable fetal exposure is considered to be a significant dose and makes an estimation of stochastic fetal risk related to x-ray exposure and to investigate the methods of dose reduction. As the methods judging the exposure dose actually made in the hospitals, a questionnarie regarding the main technical factors of an x-ray examination was given to 26 hospitals, including 5 university hospitals, in Kantou district, and the answeres were analyzed. The estimated risks involving genetics, leukemia and malignant diseases were dependent on the exposure dose which could be calculated on the basis of the technical factors obtained. Total risks on the foetus ranged widely from 1.27 x 10 rad -1 to 1.19 x 10 rad -1 . So for as we have investigated, if all the hospitals used a grid ratio of 5:1, a tube voltage of 120 kV, intensitying screens with rare earth phosphors and green-sensitive orthomatic medical x-ray films for the x-ray pelvimetric examinations, it would be possible to reduce the present exposure dose by one-fourth. The ratio of the x-ray pelvimetry taken on pregnant patients ranged from 2 % to 33 %, having a mean value of 15 %. (author)

  6. Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

    2015-06-01

    Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13-17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths' sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior.

  7. A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Iravani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

  8. Examining Subtypes of Behavioral/Emotional Risk Using Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dever, Bridget V.; Gallagher, Emily K.; Hochbein, Craig D.; Loukas, Austin; Dai, Chenchen

    2017-01-01

    Behavioral and emotional problems among children and adolescents can lead to numerous negative outcomes without intervention. From a prevention standpoint, screening for behavioral and emotional risk is an important step toward identifying such problems before the point of diagnosis or referral. The present study conducted a k-means cluster…

  9. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Shanklin, Shari; Lim, Connie; Grunbaum, Jo Anne; Wechsler, Howell

    2006-01-01

    In the United States, 71% of all deaths among persons aged 10-24 years result from 4 causes: motor vehicle crashes, other unintentional injuries, homicide, and suicide. Results from the 2005 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) indicated that during the 30 days preceding the survey, many high school students engaged in behaviors that…

  10. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1982-01-01

    Presents photographs of wildland vegetation appropriate for the 13 fuel models used in mathematical models of fire behavior. Fuel model descriptions include fire behavior associated with each fuel and its physical characteristics. A similarity chart cross-references the 13 fire behavior fuel models to the 20 fuel models used in the National Fire Danger Rating System....

  11. Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

    2016-01-01

    Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Perceived risk and risk-taking behavior during the festival firework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Soheil; Naseripour, Masoud; Karbakhsh, Mojgan; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between perceived risk and risk-taking behaviors during the Iranian Last Wednesday Eve Fireworks (ILWEF). A random sample of 2475 Tehranian households were asked on perceived risk of injury, risk-taking behaviors, experience of injuries, and their perception of ability to manage the harmful events during the ILWEF. Lower perceived injury risk and higher perceived ability of managing an injured household member were associated with participation in fireworks practice and incidence of injury. These findings can be of practical importance to increase safety during festivals by improving risk perception in the community.

  14. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  15. Planned versus Unplanned Risks: Neurocognitive Predictors of Subtypes of Adolescents' Risk Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslowsky, Julie; Keating, Daniel P.; Monk, Christopher S.; Schulenberg, John

    2011-01-01

    Risk behavior contributes to substantial morbidity and mortality during adolescence. This study examined neurocognitive predictors of proposed subtypes of adolescent risk behavior: planned (premeditated) versus unplanned (spontaneous). Adolescents (N = 69, 49% male, M = 15.1 [1.0] years) completed neurocognitive tasks (Iowa Gambling Task [IGT],…

  16. Extracting objective estimates of sedentary behavior from accelerometer data: measurement considerations for surveillance and research applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngdeok Kim

    Full Text Available Accelerometer-based activity monitors are widely used in research and surveillance applications for quantifying sedentary behavior (SB and physical activity (PA. Considerable research has been done to refine methods for assessing PA, but relatively little attention has been given to operationalizing SB parameters (i.e., sedentary time and breaks from accelerometer data - particularly in relation to health outcomes. This study investigated: (a the accrued patterns of sedentary time and breaks; and (b the associations of sedentary time and breaks in different bout durations with cardiovascular risk factors.Accelerometer data on 5,917 adults from the National Health Examination and Nutrition Survey (NHANES 2003-2006 were used. Sedentary time and breaks at different bout durations (i.e., 1, 2-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and ≥ 30-min were obtained using a threshold of < 100 counts per minute. Sedentary time and breaks were regressed on cardiovascular risk factors (waist circumference, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and body mass index across bout durations.The results revealed that the majority of sedentary time occurred within relatively short bout durations (≈ 70% and ≈ 85% for < 5-min and < 10-min, respectively. The associations of sedentary time and breaks with health outcomes varied depending on how bout time was defined. Estimates of SB parameters based on bout durations of 5 min or shorter were associated with reduced cardiovascular risk factors while durations longer than 10-min were generally associated with increased risk factors.The present study demonstrates that the duration of sedentary bouts should be further considered when operationalizing the SB parameters from accelerometer data. The threshold of 5 minutes to define a bout is defensible, but a 10 minute threshold would provide a more conservative estimate to clearly capture the prolonged nature of sedentary behavior. Additional research is

  17. Sexting and sexual behavior in at-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck, Christopher D; Barker, David; Rizzo, Christie; Hancock, Evan; Norton, Alicia; Brown, Larry K

    2014-02-01

    This study aimed to examine the prevalence of sexting behaviors (sexually explicit messages and/or pictures) among an at-risk sample of early adolescents as well as the associations between sexting behaviors and sexual behaviors, risk-related cognitions, and emotional regulation skills. It also aimed to determine whether differences in risk were associated with text-based versus photo-based sexts. Seventh-grade adolescents participating in a sexual risk prevention trial for at-risk early adolescents completed a computer-based survey at baseline regarding sexting behavior (having sent sexually explicit messages and/or pictures), sexual activities, intentions to have sex, perceived approval of sexual activity, and emotional regulation skills. Twenty-two percent of the sample reported having sexted in the past 6 months; sexual messages were endorsed by 17% (n = 71), sexual messages and photos by 5% (n = 21). Pictures were endorsed significantly more often by females (χ(2)[2] = 7.33, P = .03) and Latinos (χ(2)[2] = 7.27, P = .03). Sexting of any kind was associated with higher rates of engaging in a variety of sexual behaviors, and sending photos was associated with higher rates of sexual activity than sending text messages only. This was true for a range of behaviors from touching genitals over clothes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.98, P = .03) to oral sex (OR = 2.66, P Sexting behavior (both photo and text messages) was not uncommon among middle school youth and co-occurred with sexual behavior. These data suggest that phone behaviors, even flirtatious messages, may be an indicator of risk. Clinicians, parents, and health programs should discuss sexting with early adolescents.

  18. Sexting and Sexual Behavior in At-Risk Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, David; Rizzo, Christie; Hancock, Evan; Norton, Alicia; Brown, Larry K.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the prevalence of sexting behaviors (sexually explicit messages and/or pictures) among an at-risk sample of early adolescents as well as the associations between sexting behaviors and sexual behaviors, risk-related cognitions, and emotional regulation skills. It also aimed to determine whether differences in risk were associated with text-based versus photo-based sexts. METHODS: Seventh-grade adolescents participating in a sexual risk prevention trial for at-risk early adolescents completed a computer-based survey at baseline regarding sexting behavior (having sent sexually explicit messages and/or pictures), sexual activities, intentions to have sex, perceived approval of sexual activity, and emotional regulation skills. RESULTS: Twenty-two percent of the sample reported having sexted in the past 6 months; sexual messages were endorsed by 17% (n = 71), sexual messages and photos by 5% (n = 21). Pictures were endorsed significantly more often by females (χ2[2] = 7.33, P = .03) and Latinos (χ2[2] = 7.27, P = .03). Sexting of any kind was associated with higher rates of engaging in a variety of sexual behaviors, and sending photos was associated with higher rates of sexual activity than sending text messages only. This was true for a range of behaviors from touching genitals over clothes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.98, P = .03) to oral sex (OR = 2.66, P Sexting behavior (both photo and text messages) was not uncommon among middle school youth and co-occurred with sexual behavior. These data suggest that phone behaviors, even flirtatious messages, may be an indicator of risk. Clinicians, parents, and health programs should discuss sexting with early adolescents. PMID:24394678

  19. Sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benotsch, Eric G; Snipes, Daniel J; Martin, Aaron M; Bull, Sheana S

    2013-03-01

    Cell phone use has become more widespread over the past decade. Young adults are frequently early adopters of new technologies, including cell phones. Most previous research examining sexting, the act of sending sexually explicit or suggestive images via text message, has focused on the legal or social consequences of this behavior. The current study focused on the public health implications of sexting by examining associations between sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in youth. Young adults (N = 763) completed online questionnaires assessing demographics, cell phone use (e.g., texting, sexting), substance use, and sexual risk behaviors. Sexting was reported by a substantial minority of participants (44%). Compared with their nonsexting counterparts, participants who engaged in sexting were more likely to report recent substance use and high-risk sexual behaviors, including unprotected sex and sex with multiple partners. Of those who engaged in sexting, a considerable percentage (31.8%) reported having sex with a new partner for the first time after sexting with that person. In multivariate analyses, sexting was associated with high-risk sexual behavior, after accounting for demographic factors, total texting behaviors, and substance use. Results suggest that sexting is robustly associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Many individuals exchange explicit or provocative photos with long-term sexual partners, but at least some participants in this study were incurring new sexual risks after sexting. Additional research is needed to understand the contexts in which sexting occurs, motivations for sexting, and relationship of sexting to risk behavior. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benotsch, Eric G.; Snipes, Daniel J.; Martin, Aaron M.; Bull, Sheana S.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Cell phone use has become more widespread over the past decade. Young adults are frequently early adopters of new technologies, including cell phones. Most prior research examining sexting, the act of sending sexually explicit or suggestive images via text message, has focused on the legal or social consequences of this behavior. The current study focused on the public health implications of sexting by examining associations between sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in youth. Methods Young adults (N=763) completed online questionnaires assessing demographics, cell phone use (e.g., texting, sexting), substance use, and sexual risk behaviors. Results Sexting was reported by a substantial minority of participants (44%). Compared to their non-sexting counterparts, participants who engaged in sexting were more likely to report recent substance use and high-risk sexual behaviors, including unprotected sex and sex with multiple partners. Of those who engaged in sexting, a considerable percentage (31.8%) reported having sex with a new partner for the first time after sexting with that person. In multivariate analyses, sexting was associated with high-risk sexual behavior after accounting for demographic factors, total texting behaviors, and substance use. Conclusions Results suggest that sexting is robustly associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Many individuals exchange explicit or provocative photos with long-term sexual partners, but at least some participants in this study were incurring new sexual risks subsequent to sexting. Additional research is needed to understand the contexts in which sexting occurs, motivations for sexting, and relationship of sexting to risk behavior. PMID:23299017

  1. [Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigor'ev, Iu G

    2012-01-01

    The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

  2. Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

    2018-05-16

    Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. HIV Risk Perception, HIV Knowledge, and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Transgender Women in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Santis, Joseph P; Hauglum, Shayne D; Deleon, Diego A; Provencio-Vasquez, Elias; Rodriguez, Allan E

    2017-05-01

    Transgender women experience a variety of factors that may contribute to HIV risk. The purpose of this study was to explore links among HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors of transgender women. A descriptive, correlational study design was used. Fifty transgender women from the South Florida area were enrolled in the study. Transgender women completed a demographic questionnaire and standardized instruments measuring HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors. Transgender women reported low levels of HIV risk perception, and had knowledge deficits regarding HIV risk/transmission. Some participants engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Predictors of sexual risk behaviors among transgender women were identified. More research is needed with a larger sample size to continue studying factors that contribute to sexual risk behaviors in the understudied population of transgender women. Evidence-based guidelines are available to assist public health nurses in providing care for transgender women. Nurses must assess HIV perception risk and HIV knowledge and provide relevant education to transgender women on ways to minimize sexual risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  5. Behavioral Risk Assessment of the Guarded Suicidal Patient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are trained to assess patients by direct observation and examination. Short inpatient length of stay, brief outpatient visits, emergency room evaluations, and other time-limited clinical settings require rapid assessment of suicide risk. Recognition of behavioral suicide risk factors can assist…

  6. The Risk of Divorce and Household Saving Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Libertad; Ozcan, Berkay

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the causal impact of an increase in the risk of marital dissolution on the saving behavior of married couples. We use the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996 as an exogenous shock to the risk of divorce. We propose several comparison groups (unaffected by the law change) that allow us to use a difference-in-differences approach.…

  7. Sun Protection Motivational Stages and Behavior: Skin Cancer Risk Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagoto, Sherry L.; McChargue, Dennis E.; Schneider, Kristin; Cook, Jessica Werth

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To create skin cancer risk profiles that could be used to predict sun protection among Midwest beachgoers. Method: Cluster analysis was used with study participants (N=239), who provided information about sun protection motivation and behavior, perceived risk, burn potential, and tan importance. Participants were clustered according to…

  8. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus and the associated behavioral risks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The prevalence of type 2 Diabetes is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, hence the need for early identification of risk factors. This study, therefore, aimed to determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and the associated behavioral risks among secondary school staff in Owo, Ondo State, Nigeria.

  9. Risk & Hedging Behavior: The Role and Determinants of Latent Heterogeneity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of heterogeneous behavior is well grounded in economic theory. Recently it has been shown in a hedging context that the influence of risk attitudes and risk perceptions varies for different segments using a generalized mixture regression model. Here, using recently developed individual

  10. Sexual Risk Behavior: HIV, STD, & Teen Pregnancy Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A-Glance Project Connect Sexual Health STD Teen Pregnancy Sexual Risk Behaviors: HIV, STD, & Teen Pregnancy Prevention Recommend on Facebook Tweet ... their risk for HIV , other STDs , and unintended pregnancy . The National HIV/AIDS Strategy calls for all Americans to be ...

  11. Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.

    2017-08-01

    The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.

  12. Sexting behaviors among young Hispanic women: incidence and association with other high-risk sexual behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J

    2011-09-01

    Several legal cases in the United States in which adolescents were charged with child pornography distribution after sharing nude photographs of themselves with romantic partners or others have highlighted the issue of sexting behaviors among youth. Although policy makers, mental health workers, educators and parents have all expressed concern regarding the potential harm of sexting behaviors, little to no research has examined this phenomenon empirically. The current study presents some preliminary data on the incidence of sexting behavior and associated high risk sexual behaviors in a sample of 207 predominantly Hispanic young women age 16-25. Approximately 20% of young women reported engaging in sexting behavior. Sexting behaviors were not associated with most other high-risk sexual behaviors, but were slightly more common in women who found sex to be highly pleasurable or who displayed histrionic personality traits.

  13. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  14. Sexting, Risk Behavior, and Mental Health in Adolescents: An Examination of 2015 Pennsylvania Youth Risk Behavior Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Anne S.; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Patterson, Freda; Dai, Ting; Brown, Deanna

    2018-01-01

    Background: Sexting, the sharing of sexually suggestive photos, may be a gateway behavior to early sexual activity and increase the likelihood of social ostracism. Methods: Youth Risk Behavior Survey (N = 6021) data from 2015 among Pennsylvania 9th-12th grade students were used to examine associations between consensual and nonconsensual sexting…

  15. INSTRUMENTS OF HIGH RISK SEXUAL BEHAVIOR ASSESSMENT: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaei, Mojtaba; Ahmadi, Khodabakhsh; Saadat, Seyed-Hassan; Ramezani, Mohammad Arash

    2016-02-01

    Sexual behavior is a complex activity affecting all aspects of human's life. Risky sexual behaviors impose negative outcomes on family, relationships and health. Unsafe sex is the second most leading cause of disability adjusted life years worldwide. Valid and reliable tools for assessment of risky sexual behaviors are necessary for implementing preventive measures. we searched Medline and the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews, with the keywords of "risky sexual behavior assessment", "sexual risk assessment", "high risk sexual behavior", "sexual risk taking". By reviewing references of the articles, some complementary studies were added. Assessment can be performed by questionnaire or non-questionnaire instruments. Questionnaires vary depending on their target population, evaluation of risky sexual behavior as a whole or focusing on an associated risk factor. In order to avoid usual biases in self reports, objective biomarker assessment of unprotected sex are employed. These markers include prostate specific antigen, chromosome Y DNA and Seminogelin. Risky sexual behavior can be assessed by various subjective and objective methods. While self-reports are more feasible, objective methods offer a higher degree of reliability. Further studies for finding more feasible methods of using biomarkers are recommended.

  16. Predicting risk behaviors: development and validation of a diagnostic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, K; Cameron, K A; McKeon, J K; Berkowitz, J M

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this study was to develop and validate the Risk Behavior Diagnosis (RBD) Scale for use by health care providers and practitioners interested in promoting healthy behaviors. Theoretically guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM; a fear appeal theory), the RBD scale was designed to work in conjunction with an easy-to-use formula to determine which types of health risk messages would be most appropriate for a given individual or audience. Because some health risk messages promote behavior change and others backfire, this type of scale offers guidance to practitioners on how to develop the best persuasive message possible to motivate healthy behaviors. The results of the study demonstrate the RBD scale to have a high degree of content, construct, and predictive validity. Specific examples and practical suggestions are offered to facilitate use of the scale for health practitioners.

  17. Sexual risk behaviors among women with bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, Eliana; Martino, Diego J; Igoa, Ana; Fassi, Guillermo; Scápola, María; Urtueta Baamonde, Mariana; Strejilevich, Sergio A

    2015-12-30

    The aim of this study was to investigate sexual health and sexual risk behaviors for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among women with bipolar disorder (BDW). Sixty-three euthymic women diagnosed with bipolar disorder type I, II or not otherwise specified were included and matched with a control group of 63 healthy women. Demographic and clinical data, structured sexual health measures and extensive assessment of sexual risk behavior were obtained and compared between groups. BDW had casual partners, were in non-monogamous sexual partnerships and had sex with partners with unknown HIV condition more frequently than healthy control women. History of two or more STI was more frequent among BDW. Inclusion of sexual behavior risk assessment among BDW in treatment is necessary to better identify those women with higher risk for STI and to take measures to improve their sexual health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Physical inactivity and sedentary behavior: Overlooked risk factors in autoimmune rheumatic diseases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Ana Jéssica; Roschel, Hamilton; de Sá Pinto, Ana Lúcia; Lima, Fernanda Rodrigues; Pereira, Rosa Maria Rodrigues; Silva, Clovis Artur; Bonfá, Eloisa; Gualano, Bruno

    2017-07-01

    This review aims to (1) summarize the estimates of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior in autoimmune rheumatic diseases; (2) describe the relationship between physical (in)activity levels and disease-related outcomes; (3) contextualize the estimates and impact of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior in autoimmune diseases compared to other rheumatic diseases and chronic conditions; and (4) discuss scientific perspectives around this theme and potential clinical interventions to attenuate these preventable risk factors. We compiled evidence to show that estimates of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior in autoimmune rheumatic diseases are generally comparable to other rheumatic diseases as well as to other chronic conditions (e.g., type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and obesity), in which a lack of physical activity and excess of sedentary behavior are well-known predictors of morbimortality. In addition, we also showed evidence that both physical inactivity and sedentary behavior may be associated with poor health-related outcomes (e.g., worse disease symptoms and low functionality) in autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Thus, putting into practice interventions to make the patients "sit less and move more", particularly light-intensity activities and/or breaking-up sedentary time, is a simple and prudent therapeutic approach to minimize physical inactivity and sedentary behavior, which are overlooked yet modifiable risk factors in the field of autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Risky music-listening behaviors and associated health-risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ineke; van de Looij-Jansen, Petra M; Mieloo, Cathelijne L; Burdorf, Alex; de Waart, Frouwkje

    2012-06-01

    To examine, among adolescents and emerging adults attending inner-city lower education, associations between risky music-listening behaviors (from MP3 players and in discotheques and at pop concerts) and more traditional health-risk behaviors: substance use (cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, and hard drugs) and unsafe sexual intercourse. A total of 944 students in Dutch inner-city senior-secondary vocational schools completed questionnaires about their music-listening and traditional health-risk behaviors. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to examine associations between music-listening and traditional health-risk behaviors. Risky MP3-player listeners used cannabis more often during the past 4 weeks. Students exposed to risky sound levels during discotheque and pop concert attendance used cannabis less often during the past 4 weeks, were more often binge drinkers, and reported inconsistent condom use during sexual intercourse. The coexistence of risky music-listening behaviors with other health-risk behaviors provides evidence in support of the integration of risky music-listening behaviors within research on and programs aimed at reducing more traditional health-risk behaviors, such as substance abuse and unsafe sexual intercourse.

  20. Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1981-11-01

    A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US popula six times larger than the first reservoir.onunding. Analytical work cthe Department of Energy

  1. Sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors of tobacco, alcohol, sexual behaviors, and diet and physical activity: pooled Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosario, Margaret; Corliss, Heather L; Everett, Bethany G; Reisner, Sari L; Austin, S Bryn; Buchting, Francisco O; Birkett, Michelle

    2014-02-01

    We examined sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors among adolescents. We pooled data from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. We classified youths with any same-sex orientation as sexual minority and the remainder as heterosexual. We compared the groups on risk behaviors and stratified by gender, age ( 14 years), and race/ethnicity. Sexual minorities (7.6% of the sample) reported more risk behaviors than heterosexuals for all 12 behaviors (mean = 5.3 vs 3.8; P sexual orientation disparities in analyses by gender, followed by age, and then race/ethnicity; they persisted in analyses by gender, age, and race/ethnicity, although findings were nuanced. Data on cancer risk, morbidity, and mortality by sexual orientation are needed to track the potential but unknown burden of cancer among sexual minorities.

  2. Uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garaud, Damien

    2011-01-01

    This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we build a multi-model ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically generated. Then, these ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or shows good resolution and reliability for probabilistic forecasting. This work shows that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve the reliability of threshold exceedance predictions. The approach is compared with Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated or not. The Monte Carlo approach appears to be less representative of the uncertainties than the multi-model approach. Finally, we quantify the observational error, the representativeness error and the modeling errors. The work is applied to the impact of thermal power plants, in order to quantify the uncertainty on the impact estimates. (author) [fr

  3. Studies on risk estimation to public from medical radiation (III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hai Yong; Kim, Jong Hyung; Kim, Hyeog Ju; Kim, Ji Soon; Oh, Hyeon Joo; Kim, Cheol Hyeon; Yang, Hyun Kyu [Korea Food and Drug Administraion, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chan Il [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-06-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to give representative levels of effective doses to patient for 17 types of CT examination and also representative level of MGD (mean glandular dose) to standard breast for mammography X-ray equipment. The effective doses to patient from 16 CT scanners were estimated from measurement of CTDI (Computed Tomography Dose Index) in air by multiplying conversion coefficients which are specified by National Radiological Protection Board in United Kingdom. The lowest and hightest mean values of effective dose measured to patient from CT scanner were 0.05 mSv for IAM examination and 17.75 mSv for routine abdomen examination, respectively. The average values of 17 effective doses were lower than other results of foreign countrys' surveys. The mean glandular doses to a standard breast for 26 mammography units were estimated from measurement of the air kerma at the surface of a 40 mm plain Perspex phantom by applying conversion factors described in Report 59 of the Institute of Physical Sciences in Medicine of United Kingdom. The exposure factors for this measurement were those used clinically at each hospital. The average MGD to standard breast was 1.06 mGy in units with grid and 0.49 mGy in units without grid. These results are lower than guidance levels by IPSM and AAPM. These results will be used for risk estimation to the Korean public from the medical radiation.

  4. Covariance among multiple health risk behaviors in adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayla de la Haye

    Full Text Available In a diverse group of early adolescents, this study explores the co-occurrence of a broad range of health risk behaviors: alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use; physical inactivity; sedentary computing/gaming; and the consumption of low-nutrient energy-dense food. We tested differences in the associations of unhealthy behaviors over time, and by gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.Participants were 8360 students from 16 middle schools in California (50% female; 52% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 16% White, and 15% Black/multiethnic/other. Behaviors were measured with surveys in Spring 2010 and Spring 2011. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess if an underlying factor accounted for the covariance of multiple behaviors, and composite reliability methods were used to determine the degree to which behaviors were related.The measured behaviors were explained by two moderately correlated factors: a 'substance use risk factor' and an 'unhealthy eating and sedentary factor'. Physical inactivity did not reflect the latent factors as expected. There were few differences in the associations among these behaviors over time or by demographic characteristics.Two distinct, yet related groups of health compromising behaviors were identified that could be jointly targeted in multiple health behavior change interventions among early adolescents of diverse backgrounds.

  5. Model-Based Estimation of Collision Risks of Predatory Birds with Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Eichhorn

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of renewable energies, such as wind power, is a promising way of mitigating climate change. Because of the risk of collision with rotor blades, wind turbines have negative effects on local bird populations, particularly on raptors such as the Red Kite (Milvus milvus. Appropriate assessment tools for these effects have been lacking. To close this gap, we have developed an agent-based, spatially explicit model that simulates the foraging behavior of the Red Kite around its aerie in a landscape consisting of different land-use types. We determined the collision risk of the Red Kite with the turbine as a function of the distance between the wind turbine and the aerie and other parameters. The impact function comprises the synergistic effects of species-specific foraging behavior and landscape structure. The collision risk declines exponentially with increasing distance. The strength of this decline depends on the raptor's foraging behavior, its ability to avoid wind turbines, and the mean wind speed in the region. The collision risks, which are estimated by the simulation model, are in the range of values observed in the field. The derived impact function shows that the collision risk can be described as an aggregated function of distance between the wind turbine and the raptor's aerie. This allows an easy and rapid assessment of the ecological impacts of (existing or planned wind turbines in relation to their spatial location. Furthermore, it implies that minimum buffer zones for different landscapes can be determined in a defensible way. This modeling approach can be extended to other bird species with central-place foraging behavior. It provides a helpful tool for landscape planning aimed at minimizing the impacts of wind power on biodiversity.

  6. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts.

  7. Estimating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  8. Malware Function Estimation Using API in Initial Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    KAWAGUCHI, Naoto; OMOTE, Kazumasa

    2017-01-01

    Malware proliferation has become a serious threat to the Internet in recent years. Most current malware are subspecies of existing malware that have been automatically generated by illegal tools. To conduct an efficient analysis of malware, estimating their functions in advance is effective when we give priority to analyze malware. However, estimating the malware functions has been difficult due to the increasing sophistication of malware. Actually, the previous researches do not estimate the...

  9. Risk and Protective Factors for Difficulty Controlling Violent Behavior in National Guard and Reserve Service Members.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worthen, Miranda; Rathod, Sujit D; Cohen, Gregory; Sampson, Laura; Ursano, Robert; Gifford, Robert; Fullerton, Carol; Galea, Sandro; Ahern, Jennifer

    2017-11-01

    Violent behavior is an important problem for military service members and veterans. A representative cohort of U.S. Reserve and National Guard personnel ( N = 1,293) were interviewed to assess self-reported problems controlling violent behavior, deployment traumas, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), alcohol abuse, and social support. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the associations of violent behavior with risk and protective factors. Problems controlling violent behavior were uncommon among male (3.3%) and female (1.7%) service members. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) showed associations between violent behavior and deployment traumas (aPR = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [1.34, 2.08]), PTSD (aPR = 9.95, 95% CI = [5.09, 19.48]), and PTSD symptom severity (aPR for each additional PTSD symptom = 1.07, 95% CI = [1.06, 1.09]). Social support was associated with lower prevalence of violent behavior (aPR = 0.62, 95% CI = [0.52, 0.76]). The association between violent behavior and alcohol abuse was not statistically significant (aPR = 1.94, 95% CI = [0.92, 4.09]). Results were consistent when the population was restricted to personnel who had deployed to a war zone. Problems controlling violent behavior were less common in this cohort than has been documented in other studies. Associations of violent behavior with risk and protective factors are consistent with prior research.

  10. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  11. Pre-migration trauma and HIV-risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, Jennifer; Herlitz, Claes; Matthews, Jesse; Snyder, Wendy; Mazzaferro, Kathryn; Baum, Andy; Theorell, Töres

    2003-03-01

    This study examined the relationship between pre-migration trauma and HIV-risk behavior in refugees from sub-Saharan Africa. The sample comprised 122 persons who had emigrated from sub-Saharan Africa and were currently residing in Sweden. Qualitative methods including individual interviews, focus groups, and interviews with key informants addressed questions regarding trauma experience and HIV-risk behavior. A history of pre-migration trauma was found to be associated with HIV-risk behavior. According to the participants, symptoms associated with post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, adjustment disorder, and substance use mediated the relationship between pre-migration trauma and sexual risk behavior. In contrast, a minority of the participants who reported pre-migration trauma but not psychological sequelae, or experienced post-traumatic growth, reported safer sexual practices. It appears that for some individuals, pre-migration trauma resulted in psychiatric sequelae, which may increase an individual's risk to be infected with HIV. Interventions targeted at individuals at increased risk (i.e. pre-migration trauma with unresolved psychiatric symptomatology) may facilitate the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases in this population. Integration of multiple psychosocial and health issues is recommended for comprehensive treatment and prevention programs.

  12. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents : familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buschgens, Cathelijne J. M.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.; Swinkels, Sophie H. N.; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C.; Buitelaar, Jan K.

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

  13. Risky music-listening behaviors and associated health-risk behaviors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Vogel (Ineke); P.M. van de Looij-Jansen (Petra); C.L. Mieloo (Cathelijne); A. Burdorf (Alex); F. de Waart (Frouwkje)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVE: To examine, among adolescents and emerging adults attending inner-city lower education, associations between risky music-listening behaviors (from MP3 players and in discotheques and at pop concerts) and more traditional health-risk behaviors: substance use (cigarettes,

  14. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buschgens, C.J.M.; Aken, M.A.G. van; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

  15. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buschgens, C.J.M.; van Aken, M.A.G.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

  16. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: Familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.J.M. Buschgens (Cathelijne); M.A.G. van Aken (Marcel); S.H.N. Swinkels (Sophie); J. Ormel (Johan Hans); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in

  17. High Risk Behaviors in Marine Mammals: Linking Behavioral Responses to Anthropogenic Disturbance to Biological Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. High Risk Behaviors in Marine Mammals : Linking...comprehensive evaluation of biological safety zones for diving marine mammals . In this way we intend to identify those marine mammal species or specific...improving the protection of marine mammals during naval operations. OBJECTIVES We are testing the hypothesis that extreme behaviors requiring

  18. Risk and culture: variations in dioxin risk perceptions, behavioral preferences among social groups in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seohyun Park

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study examined variations in the perceptions of dioxin risk among social groups defined by geographical living location, environmental education, and occupation. Dioxin risk perceptions were analyzed according to values, risk awareness, knowledge, and behavioral preferences. Methods A quasi-experimental survey was designed and conducted on individuals from seven experimental groups in Jeonju city, South Korea, including: people living near incineration facilities; people living far from incineration facilities; governmental experts; nongovernmental organization members; office workers in developmental institutes or banks; students who were enrolled in environmental-related classes; and students who were enrolled in business-related classes. Results The results show variations among groups in values, awareness and behavioral preferences. Particular attention should be given to the result that groups with higher connectedness- to-nature values show higher willingness-to-act (WTA for risk reduction. Result s can be summarized as follows. First, awareness is associated with one’s geographical setting. Second, values and WTA behaviors are related to one’s environmental-related education and occupation. Third, values are significantly related to WTA behaviors. Conclusions Different cultures, in terms of values or worldview, among groups influence their perceptions of dioxin risk and choices of risk reduction behaviors. It is important to consider values in communicating complicated long-term risk management involving public participation. Further research should be continuously conducted on the effects of multiple dimensions of values on one’s WTA for risk reduction behaviors.

  19. Estimating active transportation behaviors to support health impact assessment in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore J Mansfield

    2016-05-01

    avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 minutes per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods. The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas.

  20. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Theodore J; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas.

  1. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Theodore J.; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    be avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas. PMID:27200327

  2. Red Color and Risk-Taking Behavior in Online Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnambs, Timo; Appel, Markus; Oeberst, Aileen

    2015-01-01

    In many situations red is associated with hazard and danger. As a consequence, it was expected that task-irrelevant color cues in online environments would affect risk-taking behaviors. This assumption was tested in two web-based experiments. The first study (N = 383) demonstrated that in risky choice dilemmas respondents preferred the less risky option when the displayed university logo was in red (versus gray); but only when both choice alternatives were at least moderately risky. The second study (N = 144) replicated these results with a behavioral outcome: Respondents showed more cautious behavior in a web-based game when the focal stimuli were colored red (versus blue). Together, these findings demonstrate that variations in the color design of a computerized environment affect risk taking: Red color leads to more conservative choices and behaviors. PMID:26207983

  3. Red Color and Risk-Taking Behavior in Online Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo Gnambs

    Full Text Available In many situations red is associated with hazard and danger. As a consequence, it was expected that task-irrelevant color cues in online environments would affect risk-taking behaviors. This assumption was tested in two web-based experiments. The first study (N = 383 demonstrated that in risky choice dilemmas respondents preferred the less risky option when the displayed university logo was in red (versus gray; but only when both choice alternatives were at least moderately risky. The second study (N = 144 replicated these results with a behavioral outcome: Respondents showed more cautious behavior in a web-based game when the focal stimuli were colored red (versus blue. Together, these findings demonstrate that variations in the color design of a computerized environment affect risk taking: Red color leads to more conservative choices and behaviors.

  4. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  5. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  6. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

    2016-01-01

    Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

  7. Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

  8. The gap between behavioral risk status and willingness to change behavior among healthcare professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasila, K; Hallman, M; Kautiainen, H; Vanhala, M; Kettunen, T

    2018-01-01

    This study explored behavioral health risk factors among healthcare professionals and investigated the at-risk persons' satisfaction with their health habits and ongoing change attempts. The study was based on a cross-sectional web-based survey directed at the nurses and physicians ( N = 1233) in Finnish healthcare. Obesity, low physical activity, smoking, and risky alcohol drinking were used as behavioral health risk factors. In all, 70% of the participants had at least one behavioral risk factor, and a significant number of at-risk persons were satisfied with their health habits and had no ongoing change process. Good self-rated health and good self-rated work ability were significantly associated with whether a participant had a behavioral health risk factor. Overall, unhealthy behaviors and a lack of ongoing change attempts were commonly observed among healthcare professionals. Work in healthcare is demanding, and healthy lifestyles can support coping. Thus, healthy lifestyle programs should also be targeted to healthcare professionals.

  9. Partner dependence and sexual risk behavior among STI clinic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senn, Theresa E; Carey, Michael P; Vanable, Peter A; Coury-Doniger, Patricia

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the relation between partner dependence and sexual risk behavior in the context of the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model. STI clinic patients (n = 1432) completed a computerized interview assessing partner dependence, condom use, and IMB variables. Men had higher partner-dependence scores than women did. Patients reporting greater dependence reported less condom use. Gender did not moderate the partner dependence-condom-use relationship. Partner dependence did not moderate the relation between IMB constructs and condom use. Further research is needed to determine how partner dependence can be incorporated into conceptual models of safer sex behaviors.

  10. Home Environmental and Behavioral Risk Indices for Reading Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jeanette; Ennis, Chelsea R; Hart, Sara A; Mikolajewski, Amy J; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2017-07-01

    The goal of this study was to identify home environmental and temperament/behavior variables that best predict standardized reading comprehension scores among school-aged children. Data from 269 children aged 9-16 ( M = 12.08; SD = 1.62) were used in discriminant function analyses to create the Home and Behavior indices. Family income was controlled in each index. The final Home and Behavior models each classified around 75% of cases correctly (reading comprehension at grade level vs. not). Each index was then used to predict other outcomes related to reading. Results showed that Home and/or Behavior accounted for 4-7% of the variance in reading fluency and spelling and 20-35% of the variance in parent-rated problems in math, social anxiety, and other dimensions. These metrics show promise as environmental and temperament/behavior risk scores that could be used to predict and potentially screen for further assessment of reading related problems.

  11. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral...

  12. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2011 to 2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to 2012. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral...

  13. Influence of Permissive Parenting on Youth Farm Risk Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinnah, Hamida A; Stoneman, Zolinda

    2016-01-01

    Farm youth continue to experience high rates of injuries and premature deaths as a result of agricultural activities. Increased parental permissiveness is positively associated with many different types of high-risk behaviors in youth. This study explored whether permissive parenting (fathering and mothering) predicts youth unsafe behaviors on the farm. Data were analyzed for 67 youth and their parents. Families were recruited from a statewide farm publication, through youth organizations (i.e., FFA [Future Farmers of America]), local newspapers, farmer referrals, and through the Cooperative Extension Network. Hierarchical multiple regression was completed. Results revealed that fathers and mothers who practiced lax-inconsistent disciplining were more likely to have youth who indulged in unsafe farm behaviors. Key hypotheses confirmed that permissive parenting (lax-inconsistent disciplining) by parents continued to predict youth unsafe farm behaviors, even after youth age, youth gender, youth personality factor of risk-taking, and father's unsafe behaviors (a measure associated with modeling) were all taken into account. A key implication is that parents may play an important role in influencing youth farm safety behaviors. Parents (especially fathers) need to devote time to discuss farm safety with their youth. Farm safety interventions need to involve parents as well as address and respect the culture and values of families. Interventions need to focus not only on safe farm practices, but also promote positive parenting practices, including increased parent-youth communication about safety, consistent disciplining strategies, and increased monitoring and modeling of safe farm behaviors by parents.

  14. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  15. Health Risk Behaviors With Synthetic Cannabinoids Versus Marijuana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Heather B; Lowry, Richard; Ashley, Carmen; Wolkin, Amy; Grant, Althea M

    2017-04-01

    Data are limited on the behavioral risk correlates of synthetic cannabinoid use. The purpose of this study was to compare the behavioral risk correlates of synthetic cannabinoid use with those among marijuana users. Data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, a cross-sectional survey conducted in a nationally representative sample of students in grades 9 through 12 ( N = 15 624), were used to examine the association between self-reported type of marijuana use (ie, never use of marijuana and synthetic cannabinoids, ever use of marijuana only, and ever use of synthetic cannabinoids) and self-report of 36 risk behaviors across 4 domains: substance use, injury/violence, mental health, and sexual health. Multivariable models were used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios. Students who ever used synthetic cannabinoids had a significantly greater likelihood of engaging in each of the behaviors in the substance use and sexual risk domains compared with students who ever used marijuana only. Students who ever used synthetic cannabinoids were more likely than students who ever used marijuana only to have used marijuana before age 13 years, to have used marijuana ≥1 times during the past 30 days, and to have used marijuana ≥20 times during the past 30 days. Several injury/violence behaviors were more prevalent among students who ever used synthetic cannabinoids compared with students who ever used marijuana only. Health professionals and school-based substance use prevention programs should include strategies focused on the prevention of both synthetic cannabinoids and marijuana. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  16. Relationships of Pubertal Development among Early Adolescents to Sexual and Nonsexual Risk Behaviors and Caregivers' Parenting Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Helen P.; Rose, Allison; Bhaskar, Brinda; Walker, Leslie R.

    2012-01-01

    Using a school-based sample of fifth graders (mean age = 10.38, SD = 0.66) and their parents (N = 408) from Washington, D.C., the authors examine associations of pubertal development with early adolescents' sexual and nonsexual risk behaviors and their caregivers' parenting behaviors and of these risk behaviors with parenting behaviors. Results…

  17. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    1997-03-01

    One must consider micro-structures of rock and rock mass in order to predict the long-term behavior for more than ten thousand years. First we observe the micro-crack distribution of granite which is commonly distributed in Japan, and is widely used for several structures. The creep under constant load and the relaxation under constant displacement are typical time dependent phenomena, and we performed a series of relaxation tests under microscope observation in laboratory. The specimen that is preserved in water is granite as mentioned above. The aim of this experiment is to observe the sequential propagation of micro-cracks and its affect to the macroscopic response of the rock material under relaxation state. Next, a viscoelastic homogenization method is applied for analyzing the behavior of granite that is composed of several kinds of minerals (i.e., a polycrystalline material). The homogenization method developed for analyzing mechanics of composite materials is a mathematical theory that can describe the macroscopic behavior accounting for the microscopic characteristics with periodic microstructures. In this study, it is applied to a polycrystalline rock which involves a few minerals and micro-cracks. Furthermore, it is required to apply the homogenization analysis for rock materials which show a nonlinear time dependent behavior, so we develop a new elasto-visco-plastic homogenization theory, and its validity is checked for some ground structures made by clay. (author)

  18. Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

    2013-01-01

    We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in

  19. Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Leenke; de Winter, Andrea F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Vollebergh, Wilma A.M.; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    BACKGROUND: Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. PURPOSE: To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among

  20. Integrating travel behavior with land use regression to estimate dynamic air pollution exposure in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Robert; Tian, Linwei; Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Tsui, Tsz Him; Brauer, Michael; Lee, Martha; Allen, Ryan; Yuchi, Weiran; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina; Barratt, Benjamin

    2018-04-01

    Epidemiological studies typically use subjects' residential address to estimate individuals' air pollution exposure. However, in reality this exposure is rarely static as people move from home to work/study locations and commute during the day. Integrating mobility and time-activity data may reduce errors and biases, thereby improving estimates of health risks. To incorporate land use regression with movement and building infiltration data to estimate time-weighted air pollution exposures stratified by age, sex, and employment status for population subgroups in Hong Kong. A large population-representative survey (N = 89,385) was used to characterize travel behavior, and derive time-activity pattern for each subject. Infiltration factors calculated from indoor/outdoor monitoring campaigns were used to estimate micro-environmental concentrations. We evaluated dynamic and static (residential location-only) exposures in a staged modeling approach to quantify effects of each component. Higher levels of exposures were found for working adults and students due to increased mobility. Compared to subjects aged 65 or older, exposures to PM 2.5 , BC, and NO 2 were 13%, 39% and 14% higher, respectively for subjects aged below 18, and 3%, 18% and 11% higher, respectively for working adults. Exposures of females were approximately 4% lower than those of males. Dynamic exposures were around 20% lower than ambient exposures at residential addresses. The incorporation of infiltration and mobility increased heterogeneity in population exposure and allowed identification of highly exposed groups. The use of ambient concentrations may lead to exposure misclassification which introduces bias, resulting in lower effect estimates than 'true' exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2002-03-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays a essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of joint surfaces of granite and Fourier analysis, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a viscoelastic homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. But the complexity of rock surface discontinuities seems beyond the manual image processing method. In Chapter 2 a Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the rock roughness of a discontinuity. Then, scanning three-dimensional images are changed its data form in order to adapt various image analysis programs, and granitic rock roughness of discontinuities are displayed by graphic images. For example, these datas are analyzed by Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT) program and Inverse Discrete Fourier Transformation (IDFT) program. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under triaxial compression condition and by using LSM under uniaxial compression condition. With a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method, we can calculate macro behavior of medium influenced by its micro structure by analyse the long-term time-dependent behavior of granite under the same condition to the relaxation experiment. (author)

  2. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  3. The dynamics of injection drug users' personal networks and HIV risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costenbader, Elizabeth C; Astone, Nan M; Latkin, Carl A

    2006-07-01

    While studies of the social networks of injection drug users (IDUs) have provided insight into how the structures of interpersonal relationships among IDUs affect HIV risk behaviors, the majority of these studies have been cross-sectional. The present study examined the dynamics of IDUs' social networks and HIV risk behaviors over time. Using data from a longitudinal HIV-intervention study conducted in Baltimore, MD, this study assessed changes in the composition of the personal networks of 409 IDUs. We used a multi-nomial logistic regression analysis to assess the association between changes in network composition and simultaneous changes in levels of injection HIV risk behaviors. Using the regression parameters generated by the multi-nomial model, we estimated the predicted probability of being in each of four HIV risk behavior change groups. Compared to the base case, individuals who reported an entirely new set of drug-using network contacts at follow-up were more than three times as likely to be in the increasing risk group. In contrast, reporting all new non-drug-using contacts at follow-up increased the likelihood of being in the stable low-risk group by almost 50% and decreased the probability of being in the consistently high-risk group by more than 70%. The findings from this study show that, over and above IDUs' baseline characteristics, changes in their personal networks are associated with changes in individuals' risky injection behaviors. They also suggest that interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk among IDUs might benefit from increasing IDUs' social contacts with individuals who are not drug users.

  4. Contextual Stress and Health Risk Behaviors among African American Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland-Linder, Nikeea; Lambert, Sharon F.; Chen, Yi-Fu; Ialongo, Nicholas S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the longitudinal association between contextual stress and health risk behaviors and the role of protective factors in a community epidemiologically-defined sample of urban African American adolescents (N = 500; 46.4% female). Structural equation modeling was used to create a latent variable measuring contextual stress…

  5. Sexuality Education among Latinas: Experiences, Preferences, Attitudes and Risk Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas-Guyler, Liliana; King, Keith A.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated sexuality topics discussed by parents, sources of sexuality education, sexual risk behaviors, and attitudes about who should educate children about sexuality among a sample of 204 adult Latinas. Nearly half of sexually active women (having ever had sex) reported condom use and 36.7% reported discussing sexual history with…

  6. HIV knowledge and sexual risk behavior among street adolescents ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV knowledge and sexual risk behavior among street adolescents in rehabilitation centres in Kinshasa; DRC: gender differences. ... Background: Street children, common in Africa, are increasingly vulnerable to alcohol and drugs of abuse and lack access to both healthcare and knowledge about HIV and AIDS. Hence, this ...

  7. Sexual Behavior, Risk Beliefs, and Assertiveness among Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Michelle A.

    HIV risk behaviors were examined with 457 adolescents, ages 12 to 19, from four environments (community, high school, and two youth conferences). Over half reported being sexually experienced, with an average age of 13.6 for willingly engaging in first sexual intercourse. Boys reported engaging in intercourse at a significantly younger age than…

  8. Perceptions of Social Support, Empowerment and Youth Risk Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininger, Belinda M.; Perez, Adriana; Flores, Maria I. Aguirre; Chen, Zhongxue; Rahbar, Mohammad H.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the association of perceived social support and community empowerment among urban middle-school students living in Matamoros, Mexico and the risk behaviors of fighting, alcohol and tobacco use, and sexual activity. Middle school students (n = 1,181) from 32 public and private Mexican schools were surveyed. Weighted multiple…

  9. Comorbidity and Risk Behaviors among Drug Users Not in Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mark E.; Brems, Christiane; Wells, Rebecca S.; Theno, Shelley A.; Fisher, Dennis G.

    2003-01-01

    In a sample of 700 drug users, 64% evidenced comorbidity (i.e., coexisting substance use and psychiatric disorders). Robust relationships between the presence of comorbidity and increased levels of risk behavior, such as needle sharing and trading sex for money, were revealed. (Contains 44 references and 2 tables.) (Author)

  10. Developmental Trajectories of Childhood Obesity and Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, David Y. C.; Lanza, H. Isabella; Wright-Volel, Kynna; Anglin, M. Douglas

    2013-01-01

    Using group-based trajectory modeling, this study examined 5156 adolescents from the child sample of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to identify developmental trajectories of obesity from ages 6-18 and evaluate associations of such trajectories with risk behaviors and psychosocial health in adolescence. Four distinctive obesity…

  11. Decrease Risk Behavior HIV Infected on Construction Laborers with Behavior Change Communication (BCC Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purwaningsih Purwaningsih

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of BCC approach to the reduction of contracting HIV risk behavior in the construction laborers. Method: This study used operational research design. In this study measures the effectiveness of behavior change of construction workers on the prevention of HIV transmission by comparing the behavior of the construction workers before and after the intervention. The subjects of this study were 150 people risk group of construction workers who work and are spread throughout the city of Surabaya. This research was carried out into three phases, namely, phase preintervention research, intervention research, and post-intervention phase of the study. Implemented in the first year and second year praintervensi stage implemented intervention and post-intervention phases. Result: The results of this study showed that 72% of construction workers is productive (18–35 years and visit his family more than once a month (38%. There is 20% of construction workers had sex with commercial sex workers and no one was using drugs. By 50% of construction workers never get information about HIV/AIDS and as many as 48% never use the services of HIV/AIDS. Discussion: External motivation construction workers associated with the utilization of behavioral HIV/AIDS services with sufficient correlation. Strong external motivation is influenced by risk behaviors of HIV/AIDS were conducted and the desire to get help. Weak external motivation is influenced by a lack of exposure to information related to HIV/AIDS services. The results of the FGD stakeholders have the perception is the same if a construction worker is a high risk group of contracting HIV. Most of the construction workers not have enough knowledge for the prevention of HIV transmission because they do not have access to HIV care and behavior are at risk of contracting HIV by construction workers. Keywords: construction workers, behavior change communication, behavior

  12. Doubly Sparse Relevance Vector Machine for Continuous Facial Behavior Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaltwang, Sebastian; Todorovic, Sinisa; Pantic, Maja

    Certain inner feelings and physiological states like pain are subjective states that cannot be directly measured, but can be estimated from spontaneous facial expressions. Since they are typically characterized by subtle movements of facial parts, analysis of the facial details is required. To this

  13. Family structure and risk behaviors: the role of the family meal in assessing likelihood of adolescent risk behaviors

    OpenAIRE

    Sen, Bisakha; Goldfarb,Samantha; Tarver,Will

    2014-01-01

    Samantha Goldfarb, Will L Tarver, Bisakha Sen Department of Health Care Organization and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA Background: Previous literature has asserted that family meals are a key protective factor for certain adolescent risk behaviors. It is suggested that the frequency of eating with the family is associated with better psychological well-being and a lower risk of substance use and delinquency. However, it is unclear w...

  14. Female methamphetamine users: social characteristics and sexual risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semple, Shirley J; Grant, Igor; Patterson, Thomas L

    2004-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to expand our knowledge regarding the personal and social characteristics of female methamphetamine (meth) users, their motivations for using meth, patterns of meth use, medical and social problems associated with meth use, and the relationship between meth use and sexual risk behaviors. The sample consisted of 98 HIV-negative, heterosexually-identified, meth-using females residing in San Diego, California. Female meth users were characterized by personal and social disadvantage, high rates of psychiatric symptomatology, and high levels of sexual risk behavior, including multiple partners, risky partner types (e.g., anonymous sex partners), and high rates of unprotected vaginal and oral sex. Meth use was also associated with the subjective positive experience of sex. These finding suggest that behavioral interventions should be tailored to the social characteristics of female meth users, and program content should reflect the intertwining of women's sexual experience and meth use.

  15. Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng

    2016-09-01

    Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

  16. Novice drivers' risky driving behavior, risk perception, and crash risk: findings from the DRIVE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Boufous, Soufiane; Stevenson, Mark; Chen, Huei-Yang; Woodward, Mark; Norton, Robyn

    2009-09-01

    We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.

  17. Pesticide Risk Communication, Risk Perception, and Self-Protective Behaviors among Farmworkers in California's Salinas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera, Nolan L.; Leckie, James O.

    2009-01-01

    Agricultural pesticide use is the highest of any industry, yet there is little research evaluating farmworkers' understandings of the health risks chemical exposure poses. This study examines pesticide education, risk perception, and self-protective behaviors among farmworkers in California's Salinas Valley. Fifty current and former farmworkers…

  18. Bounded rationality and risk perception in human behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Kenichi; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Nagashima, Miyuki; Oda, Junichiro; Tokushige, Kohko

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of risk perception associated with nuclear power plants in the framework of the behavioral economics, such as prospect theory. Due to the bounded rationality of the people, the public tends to overestimate the risk of nuclear power, especially after the disaster of Fukushima Daiichi in Japan. Social acceptance is an essential element for the nuclear power plants, but nuclear option is getting regarded as a risky choice. On the other hand, experts define and measure risk by the calculation of the probability of damage to the core as a result of sequences of accidents identified by the study. However, this approach also involves limitations to some extent. We explore a possible way to close the gap under in the by wider social context with consideration of risk trade-off among various risk factors, rather than focusing only on nuclear issue. (author)

  19. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-06-01

    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  20. High-Risk Driving Behaviors among Adolescent Binge-Drinkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcotte, Thomas D.; Bekman, Nicole M.; Meyer, Rachel A.; Brown, Sandra A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Binge drinking is common among adolescents. Alcohol use, and binge-drinking in particular, has been associated with neurocognitive deficits as well as risk-taking behaviors, which may contribute to negative driving outcomes among adolescents even while sober. Objectives To examine differences in self-reported driving behaviors between adolescent binge-drinkers and a matched sample of controls, including (a) compliance with graduated licensing laws, (b) high risk driving behaviors, and (c) driving outcomes (crashes, traffic tickets). Methods The present study examined driving behaviors and outcomes in adolescent recent binge drinkers (n=21) and demographically and driving history matched controls (n=17), ages 16-18. Results Binge drinkers more frequently violated graduated licensing laws (e.g., driving late at night), and engaged in more “high risk” driving behaviors, such as speeding and using a cell-phone while driving. Binge drinkers had more traffic tickets, crashes and “near crashes” than the control group. In a multivariate analysis, binge drinker status and speeding were the most robust predictors of a crash. Conclusion Binge drinking teens consistently engage in more dangerous driving behaviors and experience more frequent crashes and traffic tickets. They are also less compliant with preventative restrictions placed on youth while they are learning critical safe driving skills. Scientific Significance These findings highlight a need to examine the contribution of underlying traits (such as sensation seeking) and binge-related cognitive changes to these high-risk driving behaviors, which may assist researchers in establishing alternative prevention and policy efforts targeting this population. PMID:22324748

  1. Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Nematollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

  2. Risk estimation of radiation exposure in early pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumeister, K.; Waesser, S.

    1977-01-01

    The biomedical effects of radiation exposure (occupational, by X-ray diagnosis or examinations in nuclear medicine) to low doses on early pregnancy have been subject of a research work dealing with the dose level which, in case of exceeding, may lead to somatic damage (1.5 to 10 rem), and with the type of radiation injuries (malformations, functional disorder, cancer induction, increase in morbidity rate, genetic damage). A pilot study was the basis for the programme which will record such cases from all over the GDR. Within the scope of the health centre at the National Board of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection of the GDR, medical opinion on the interruption or preservation of pregnancy at its early stage, after exposure, was delivered in more than 50 cases. Exposure of the foetus was exactly determined. These children were re-investigated at the age of 1 to 3 years by applying pediatric and genetic examinations. The latter were based on clinical and biochemical methods as well as chromosome analyses. From these results, the risk of exposure in early pregnancy is estimated and adequate dose limits are suggested. In case these limits are exceeded, an interruption should be advised

  3. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2004-02-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For understanding long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (CLSM) under uniaxial compression (before loading and at each loading stage), 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, and 3) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. First, CLSM was used to acquire clearly focused three-dimensional images of granite specimens, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under applying uniaxial compression stress. Then though microcracks have ever thought to be initiated and propagated on intergranular boundaries, we understand through the CLSM observation that new microcracks are generated from the ends of pre-existing cracks which are distributed in quartz and biotite. Second, we showed the results of stress-relaxation test of granite specimens observed by an optical microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Since microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock, we managed the experiments with careful attention of 1) keeping constant edge-displacement and constant strain in the whole specimen accurately, and 2) measuring the relaxed stress exactly. Next, in order to simulate the experimental results which indicate that initiation and propagation of microcracks control the stress-relaxation phenomenon, we introduce a homogenization analysis procedure together with the strong discontinuity analysis which has recently established the mechanical implication and mathematical foundation. The numerical results show that we can

  4. Risk-perception and dangerous driving among adolescents: Outcome- and behavior-focused questions yield opposite results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Fearghal; Gormley, Michael

    2016-10-01

    While some studies have found that those who perceive a behavior to be more risky are less likely to engage in it, others have found that those who engage in more risky behaviors see themselves as being more at-risk. Using an online questionnaire we investigated whether such conflicting findings may be due to the types of risk-questions employed in past studies. We assessed risk-perception using outcome-focused questions (e.g. the likelihood of being in an accident) and a behavior-focused question (the riskiness of speeding). Participants who reported engaging in more risky driving gave higher estimates of their chances of experiencing a negative outcome. However, those same participants gave lower estimates of the general riskiness of risky driving. Drivers may think about the risks of risky driving in different ways depending on the focus of the questions. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10?12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands (N = 2,230). Regression analyses were used to determine the relative contribution of FR-EXT and perceived parenting s...

  6. Prevention messages and AIDS risk behavior in Kampala, Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearst, Norman; Kajubi, Phoebe; Hudes, Esther Sid; Maganda, Albert K; Green, Edward C

    2012-01-01

    Uganda was one of the first countries to substantially reduce HIV rates through behavior change, but these gains have not continued in recent years. Little is known about what messages Ugandans are currently hearing about AIDS prevention, what they themselves believe to be important prevention strategies, and how these beliefs are associated with behavior. We interviewed men and women aged between 20 and 39 in two poor peri-urban areas of Kampala, using a random sample, cross-sectional household survey design. Respondents provided detailed reports of sexual behavior over the past six months, the main prevention message they are currently hearing about AIDS, and their own ranking of the importance of prevention strategies. Condom use was the main AIDS prevention message that respondents reported hearing, followed by getting tested. These were also what respondents themselves considered most important, followed closely by faithfulness. Abstinence was the lowest ranked strategy, but a higher ranking for this prevention strategy was the only one consistently associated with less risky behavior. A higher ranking for condoms was associated with higher levels of risk behavior, while the ranking of testing made no difference in any behavior. These results present challenges for AIDS prevention strategies that rely primarily on promoting condoms and testing. HIV prevention programs need to assess their impact on behavior.

  7. Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2018-04-01

    Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Conditional economic incentives for reducing HIV risk behaviors: integration of psychology and behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Gálarraga, Omar

    2013-09-01

    This article reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories and behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

    2014-01-01

    Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

  10. [Adolescence, sexual behavior and risk factors to health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Simone Gonçalves de; Gomes, Romeu; Pires, Thiago de Oliveira

    2014-02-01

    To analyze the relationships between sexual behavior and risk factors to physical and mental health in adolescents. Study of 3,195 pupils aged 15 to 19 in secondary education, in public and private schools in 10 state capitals in Brazil between 2007 and 2008. Multi-stage (schools and pupils) cluster sampling was used in each city and public and private educational network. All of the students selected completed a questionnaire on the following items: socioeconomic and demographic data; sexual behavior; having sex with those of the same sex, the opposite sex, or both; alcohol and cannabis use; using condoms; traumatic sexual experiences as a child or adolescent; suicidal thoughts. The analysis included describing frequencies, Chi-square test, analysis of multiple and cluster correspondence. Responses to an open ended question in which the adolescent expressed general comments about themselves and their lives were qualitatively analyzed using content analysis. Around 3.0% of adolescents reported homosexual or bisexual behavior, with no difference according to sex, age, skin color, social status family structure or educational network. Adolescents with homosexual/bisexual sexual behavior, compared to their heterosexual peers, reported: (p sexual violence (11.7% and 1.5%; respectively). Adolescents with homosexual/bisexual sexual behavior reported that they used condoms less frequently (74.2%) than their heterosexual peers (48.6%, p sexual violence, never using a condom, suicidal thoughts, frequent cannabis use; another composed of occasional cannabis and condom users, who got drunk frequently, and adolescents with heterosexual behavior and none of the risk factors investigated. More of the risk factors were found in adolescents with homosexual/bisexual behavior compared with those with heterosexual behavior. Adolescents with homosexual/bisexual sexual behavior were more likely to talk about their positive personal experiences and negative relationship experiences that

  11. Sadness, suicide, and drug misuse in Arkansas: results from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaley, Sean; Mancino, Michael J; Messias, Erick

    2014-02-01

    Exposure to drugs is unfortunately common among high school students and its use has been linked to depression and suicide risk. We used the 2011 Arkansas Youth Risk Behavior Survey to estimate the prevalence of drug abuse and to measure its association with teen suicidality. Three types of substance misuse were reported by more than 10% of Arkansas high school students: cannabis (33.3% ever use). inhalants (18.7% ever use). and prescription drugs without a prescription (13.2% ever use). We found in all suicide outcomes a stronger association with prescription drug abuse, followed by inhalant abuse, then cannabis abuse.

  12. Estimating the actual subject-specific genetic correlations in behavior genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2012-10-01

    Generalization of the standard behavior longitudinal genetic factor model for the analysis of interindividual phenotypic variation to a genetic state space model for the analysis of intraindividual variation enables the possibility to estimate subject-specific heritabilities.

  13. The impact of adolescent risk behavior on partner relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornberry, Terence P; Krohn, Marvin D; Augustyn, Megan Bears; Buchanan, Molly; Greenman, Sarah J

    2016-06-01

    Prior literature suggests that involvement in adolescent risk behaviors will have short- and long-term consequences that disrupt the orderly flow of later development, including impacts on patterns of partner relationships. In this study, we explore how adolescent involvement in delinquency, drug use, and sexual behavior at an early age affects the likelihood and timing of both marriage and cohabitation using a sample from the Rochester Youth Development Study. We also examine the direct effects of dropping out of high school, teenage parenthood, and financial stress during emerging adulthood as well as their potential role as mediators of the relationships between adolescent risk behaviors and partnering for both males and females. Overall, there is not very strong support for a direct relationship between adolescent delinquency, drug use, or early sexual behavior and patterns of partner formation. In contrast, the more proximal relationships, indicated by precocious transitions to adulthood and financial instability, are more consistently related to partner formation. These findings support models of cumulative disadvantage: early adolescent problem behaviors are weakly related to partner formation, but appear to set in motion cascading consequences that influence the transition to adulthood and, in turn, these more proximal variables are more consistently related to partner formation.

  14. The impact of adolescent risk behavior on partner relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornberry, Terence P.; Krohn, Marvin D.; Augustyn, Megan Bears; Buchanan, Molly; Greenman, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Prior literature suggests that involvement in adolescent risk behaviors will have short- and long-term consequences that disrupt the orderly flow of later development, including impacts on patterns of partner relationships. In this study, we explore how adolescent involvement in delinquency, drug use, and sexual behavior at an early age affects the likelihood and timing of both marriage and cohabitation using a sample from the Rochester Youth Development Study. We also examine the direct effects of dropping out of high school, teenage parenthood, and financial stress during emerging adulthood as well as their potential role as mediators of the relationships between adolescent risk behaviors and partnering for both males and females. Overall, there is not very strong support for a direct relationship between adolescent delinquency, drug use, or early sexual behavior and patterns of partner formation. In contrast, the more proximal relationships, indicated by precocious transitions to adulthood and financial instability, are more consistently related to partner formation. These findings support models of cumulative disadvantage: early adolescent problem behaviors are weakly related to partner formation, but appear to set in motion cascading consequences that influence the transition to adulthood and, in turn, these more proximal variables are more consistently related to partner formation. PMID:27429604

  15. Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model with Strategic Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tie Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The classic newsvendor problem focuses on maximizing the expected profit or minimizing the expected cost when the newsvendor faces myopic customers. However, it ignores the customer’s bargain-hunting behavior and risk preference measure of the newsvendor. As a result, we carry out the rational expectation (RE equilibrium analysis for risk-averse newsvendor facing forward-looking customers who anticipate future sales and choose purchasing timing to maximize their expected surplus. We propose the equations satisfied by the RE equilibrium price and quantity for the risk-averse retailer in general setting and the explicit equilibrium decisions for the case where demand follows the uniform distribution and utility is a general power function. We identify the impacts of the system parameters on the RE equilibrium for this specific situation. In particular, we show that the RE equilibrium price for some risk-averse newsvendors is lower than for a risk-neutral retailer and the RE equilibrium stocking quantity for some risk-averse newsvendors is higher than for a risk-neutral retailer. We also find that the RE equilibrium sale price for a risk-averse newsvendor is decreasing in salvage price in some situations.

  16. Brand priming effect on consumers’ financial risk taking behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Mantovani

    Full Text Available Abstract Taking the perspective of brand priming theory, this study proposes that brands associated with an audacious personality trait may influence consumers to be take more risks in making subsequent decisions. Two experiments, run in sport brands contexts, showed that individuals exposed to brands with high (vs. low audacity traits demonstrated a higher rate of risk taking in financial decisions. The studies also showed that this effect is moderated by individuals’ experience with the financial market. This moderation suggests that there was an activation of a goal not just semantic activation, but through the brand priming. This research provides insights into how today's consumers deal with brand priming effects in risky choice settings. From a managerial perspective, it can help managers to understand the likely effects of brand priming on behavior and better predict the probability of risk aversion or risk seeking outcomes.

  17. Estimation of thermochemical behavior of spallation products in mercury target

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Kaoru; Kaminaga, Masanori; Haga, Katsuhiro; Kinoshita, Hidetaka; Aso, Tomokazu; Teshigawara, Makoto; Hino, Ryutaro [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2002-02-01

    In order to examine the radiation safety of a spallation mercury target system, especially source term evaluation, it is necessary to clarify the chemical forms of spallation products generated by spallation reaction with proton beam. As for the chemical forms of spallation products in mercury that involves large amounts of spallation products, these forms were estimated by using the binary phase diagrams and the thermochemical equilibrium calculation based on the amounts of spallation product. Calculation results showed that the mercury would dissolve Al, As, B, Be, Bi, C, Co, Cr, Fe, Ga, Ge, Ir, Mo, Nb, Os, Re, Ru, Sb, Si, Ta, Tc, V and W in the element state, and Ag, Au, Ba, Br, Ca, Cd, Ce, Cl, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, F, Gd, Hf, Ho, I, In, K, La, Li, Lu, Mg, Mn, Na, Nd, Ni, O, Pb, Pd, Pr, Pt, Rb, Rh, S, Sc, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tb, Te, Ti, Tl, Tm, Y, Yb, Zn and Zr in the form of inorganic mercury compounds. As for As, Be, Co, Cr, Fe, Ge, Ir, Mo, Nb, Os, Pt, Re, Ru, Se, Ta, V, W and Zr, precipitation could be occurred when increasing the amounts of spallation products with operation time of the spallation target system. On the other hand, beryllium-7 (Be-7), which is produced by spallation reaction of oxygen in the cooling water of a safety hull, becomes the main factor of the external exposure to maintain the cooling loop. Based on the thermochemical equilibrium calculation to Be-H{sub 2}O binary system, the chemical forms of Be in the cooling water were estimated. Then the Be could exist in the form of cations such as BeOH{sup +}, BeO{sup +} and Be{sup 2+} under the condition of less than 10{sup -8} of the Be mole fraction in the cooling water. (author)

  18. Estimation of thermochemical behavior of spallation products in mercury target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Kaoru; Kaminaga, Masanori; Haga, Katsuhiro; Kinoshita, Hidetaka; Aso, Tomokazu; Teshigawara, Makoto; Hino, Ryutaro

    2002-02-01

    In order to examine the radiation safety of a spallation mercury target system, especially source term evaluation, it is necessary to clarify the chemical forms of spallation products generated by spallation reaction with proton beam. As for the chemical forms of spallation products in mercury that involves large amounts of spallation products, these forms were estimated by using the binary phase diagrams and the thermochemical equilibrium calculation based on the amounts of spallation product. Calculation results showed that the mercury would dissolve Al, As, B, Be, Bi, C, Co, Cr, Fe, Ga, Ge, Ir, Mo, Nb, Os, Re, Ru, Sb, Si, Ta, Tc, V and W in the element state, and Ag, Au, Ba, Br, Ca, Cd, Ce, Cl, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, F, Gd, Hf, Ho, I, In, K, La, Li, Lu, Mg, Mn, Na, Nd, Ni, O, Pb, Pd, Pr, Pt, Rb, Rh, S, Sc, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tb, Te, Ti, Tl, Tm, Y, Yb, Zn and Zr in the form of inorganic mercury compounds. As for As, Be, Co, Cr, Fe, Ge, Ir, Mo, Nb, Os, Pt, Re, Ru, Se, Ta, V, W and Zr, precipitation could be occurred when increasing the amounts of spallation products with operation time of the spallation target system. On the other hand, beryllium-7 (Be-7), which is produced by spallation reaction of oxygen in the cooling water of a safety hull, becomes the main factor of the external exposure to maintain the cooling loop. Based on the thermochemical equilibrium calculation to Be-H 2 O binary system, the chemical forms of Be in the cooling water were estimated. Then the Be could exist in the form of cations such as BeOH + , BeO + and Be 2+ under the condition of less than 10 -8 of the Be mole fraction in the cooling water. (author)

  19. Do schools influence student risk-taking behaviors and emotional health symptoms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Simon J; Robinson, Elizabeth M; Utter, Jennifer; Fleming, Theresa M; Grant, Sue; Milfont, Taciano L; Crengle, Sue; Ameratunga, Shanthi N; Clark, Terryann

    2011-03-01

    Many schools engage in health promotion, health interventions, and services aimed at improving the health and well-being outcomes for students. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of schools on student health risk-taking behaviors and depressive symptoms. A nationally representative sample (n = 9,056) of students from 96 secondary schools completed a health and well-being survey using Internet Tablets that included questions on school climate, health risk-taking behaviors, and mental health. Teachers (n = 2,901) and school administrators (n = 91) completed questionnaires on aspects of the school climate which included teacher well-being and burnout, the staff work environment, health and welfare services for students, and school organizational support for student health and well-being. Multilevel models were used to estimate school effects on the health risk-taking behaviors and depression symptoms among students. Schools where students reported a more positive school climate had fewer students with alcohol use problems, and fewer students engaging in violence and risky motor vehicle behaviors. Schools where teachers reported better health and welfare services for students had fewer students engaging in unsafe sexual health behaviors. Schools where teachers reported higher levels of well-being had fewer students reporting significant levels of depressive symptoms. More positive school climates and better school health and welfare services are associated with fewer health risk-taking behaviors among students. However, the overall school effects were modest, especially for cigarette use and suicidal behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models with application to ion channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gunst, M.C.M.; Shcherbakova, O.V.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of Bayes estimators for hidden Markov models as the number of observations goes to infinity. The theorem that we prove is similar to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem on the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution for the case of independent

  1. How investor perceptions drive actual trading and risk-taking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, A.O.I.; Post, T.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent work in behavioral finance showed how investors' perceptions (i.e., return expectations, risk tolerance, and risk perception) affect hypothetical trading and risk-taking behavior. However, are such perceptions also capable of explaining actual trading and risk-taking behavior? To answer this

  2. Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

    2017-11-01

    Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

  3. Sexual Risk Behavior Among Youth With Bipolar Disorder: Identifying Demographic and Clinical Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krantz, Megan; Goldstein, Tina; Rooks, Brian; Merranko, John; Liao, Fangzi; Gill, Mary Kay; Diler, Rasim; Hafeman, Danella; Ryan, Neal; Goldstein, Benjamin; Yen, Shirley; Hower, Heather; Hunt, Jeffrey; Keller, Martin; Strober, Michael; Axelson, David; Birmaher, Boris

    2018-02-01

    This study aims to document rates of sexual activity among youth with bipolar spectrum disorder (BD) and to examine demographic and clinical factors associated with first sexual activity and sexual risk behavior during follow-up. The sample was drawn from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study of 413 youth 7 to 17 years at baseline who met criteria for bipolar spectrum disorder according to the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children. Psychiatric symptoms during follow-up were assessed using the Adolescent Longitudinal Interview Follow-Up Evaluation (ALIFE). Sexual behavior and level of sexual risk (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, and/or partners with known sexually transmitted infections) were assessed by trained evaluators using the ALIFE Psychosocial Functioning Scale. Analyses were conducted in relation to first sexual behavior during follow-up and then to subsequent sexual behaviors (mean 9.7 years, standard deviation 3.2). Sexually active COBY youth (n = 292 of 413; 71%) were more likely females, using substances, and not living with both parents. Consistent with findings among healthy youth, earlier first sexual activity in the sample was significantly associated with low socioeconomic status, female sex, comorbid disruptive behavior disorder, and substance use. As with healthy youth, sexual risk behavior during follow-up was significantly associated with non-Caucasian race, low socioeconomic status, substance use, and history of sexual abuse. Of those COBY youth who were sexually active, 11% reported sexual assault or abuse, 36% reported becoming pregnant (or the significant other becoming pregnant), and 15% reported having at least 1 abortion (or the significant other having an abortion) during follow-up. Hypomanic symptoms during follow-up were temporally associated with the greatest risk for sexual risk behavior. Demographic and clinical factors could help identify youth with bipolar spectrum

  4. HIV risk sexual behaviors among teachers in Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lillian Ayebale

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies reveal that teachers are more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behavior compared to the rest of the adult population. Yet the education sector could be a major vehicle for imparting knowledge and skills of avoiding and/or coping with the pandemic. This study set out to establish HIV risk behaviors among teachers in Uganda, to inform the design of a behavior change communication strategy for HIV prevention among teachers. It was a cross sectional rapid assessment conducted among primary and secondary school teachers in Kampala and Kalangala districts, in Uganda. A total of 183 teachers were interviewed. HIV risk behavior, in this study was measured as having multiple sexual partners and/or sex with a partner of unknown status without using a condom. We also considered transactional/sex for favors and alcohol use as exposures to HIV risk behavior. Odds ratios (OR and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. All data analysis was performed using SPSS version 17.0 and EPI Info Version 3.5.1. Forty five per cent of teachers reported having multiple concurrent sexual partners in the last three months, of these, only 24% acknowledged having used a condom at their last sexual encounter yet only 9.8% knew their partners’ HIV status. Teachers below 30years of age were more likely to have two or more concurrent sexual partners (OR 2.6, CI 1.31-5.34 compared to those above 30 years. Primary school teachers were less likely to involve with partners of unknown HIV status compared to secondary school teachers (OR 0.43, CI 0.19-0.97. Teachers aged below 30 years were also more likely to engage with partners of unknown HIV status compared to those above 30 years (OR 2.47, CI 1.10-5.59. Primary teachers were also less likely to have given or received gifts, money or other favors in exchange for sex (OR 0.24, CI 0.09-0.58. Teachers engage in risky sexual behaviors, which lead to HIV infection. There is need to promote

  5. Value-at-risk estimation with fuzzy histograms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

    2008-01-01

    Value at risk (VaR) is a measure for senior management that summarises the financial risk a company faces into one single number. In this paper, we consider the use of fuzzy histograms for quantifying the value-at-risk of a portfolio. It is shown that the use of fuzzy histograms provides a good

  6. Risk for Researchers Studying Social Deviance or Criminal Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia L. Brougham

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Researchers often encounter dangerous situations while conducting social research. The concept of risk to researchers refers to the possible harm that may occur to researchers while in the field or after leaving a research project. This study explores issues experienced by social scientists engaged in research on social deviance or criminal behavior. The goal of this research was to discover the types of risk experienced by social scientists and any mediating factors affecting the experience of risk. An online survey was conducted to gather data on issues experienced by social scientists. This study found that researchers experienced a variety of risks within the categories of physical/health, emotional, legal, and personal/professional. Each of the survey options for risk were reported by at least one respondent; however, the greatest number of risks reported were of an emotional or personal/professional nature. There were no mediating factors found to be significant in relation to the experience of risk. This was a surprising finding especially for the variable of gender as it is suggested that gender plays a role in the experience of difficulties.

  7. High-risk sexual behavior among drug-using men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidman, S N; Sterk-Elifson, C; Aral, S O

    1994-01-01

    Drug-using men are at high risk for acquisition and transmission of STD, presumably due to the risky behaviors practiced in environments of drug use. To study behaviors associated with STD transmission among drug-using men. Drug outreach workers distributed vouchers to self-identified drug-using men in urban Atlanta. Vouchers could be redeemed for cash at a storefront clinic where subjects provided urine for a urethritis screening test (leukocyte esterase test) and a drug screen, and were interviewed. Of 382 voucher recipients, 252 (66%) came to the clinic. Subjects were predominantly black (92%), homeless (70%), and aged 20 to 40 (88%). All used illicit drugs; none were currently receiving drug abuse treatment. Urine drug screen confirmed recent cocaine use in 63%, and recent opiate use in 4%. Three-fourths reported a history of STD, mostly gonorrhea. In the preceding 3 months, 14% had not had sex, 80% had sex exclusively with women, 4% had sex with both men and women, and 2% had sex exclusively with men. Of the heterosexually active men, 29% had 5 or more recent partners. Compared to other heterosexually active men, these men were more likely to always use alcohol or crack before having sex (prevalence ratio [PR] = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.3-2.5) and to drink alcohol every day (PR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.2-3.3). Daily crack use was associated with choosing partners at elevated STD risk; daily alcohol use with having more partners. Positive drug screen for cocaine was associated with self-reported crack use. Urethritis, detected in 16%, was not correlated with behavior. A substantial number of drug-using men practice high-risk sexual behavior and should be targeted for intervention. Monetary and other incentives should be considered for recruitment. Further study is needed to clarify the relationship between sexual behavior, cocaine use, and STD.

  8. Risk Perception and sexual risk behaviors among HIV-positive men on antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remien, Robert H; Halkitis, Perry N; O'Leary, Ann; Wolitski, Richard J; Gómez, Cynthia A

    2005-06-01

    There are reports of increased sexual risk behavior among people on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) due to beliefs about risk of HIV transmission when on HAART. In a cross-sectional study (Seropositive Urban Men's Study), we examined the relationship between risk perception and sexual risk behavior among sexually active, culturally diverse HIV positive men who have sex with men (N = 456). Less than twenty-five percent engaged in unprotected anal sex (either with an HIV negative, or unknown-status partner, or an HIV positive partner) within the past 3 months. Most men believed there was significant health risk (to partner or self) associated with unprotected sex when on HAART. There was no increased risk behavior associated with being on HAART, although the perception of negative health consequences, including HIV transmission, when on HAART was significantly lower for the relatively small subset of men who reported unprotected sex. Prevention strategies need to be tailored to address risk perception associated with HAART.

  9. Sex differences in behavioral impulsivity in at-risk and non-risk drinkers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica eWeafer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Mounting evidence from both animal and human studies suggests that females are more vulnerable to drug and alcohol abuse than males. Some of this increased risk may be related to behavioral traits, such as impulsivity. Here we examined sex differences in two forms of behavioral impulsivity (inhibitory control and impulsive choice in young men and women, in relation to their level of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems (at-risk or non-risk. Methods: Participants performed a go/no-go task to assess inhibitory control and a measure of delay discounting to assess impulsive choice. Results: On the measure of inhibitory control, at-risk women committed significantly more inhibitory errors than at-risk men, indicating poorer behavioral control among the women. By contrast, no sex differences were observed between at-risk men and women in delay discounting, or between the male and female non-risk drinkers on any measure. Conclusion: Heavy drinking women displayed poorer inhibitory control than heavy drinking men. It remains to be determined whether the sex differences in inhibitory control are the result of drinking, or whether they pre-dated the problematic drinking in these individuals.

  10. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  11. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

  12. A behavioral typology of opioid overdose risk behaviors among recent veterans in New York City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex S Bennett

    Full Text Available To identify meaningful classes of opioid-using military veterans in terms of self-reported opioid overdose risk behaviors.The study recruited a sample of 218 military veterans in the NYC area who were discharged from active duty service after September 11, 2001 and reported past-month opioid use. Survey data including measures of mental health, social stressors, substance use, and opioid-related overdose risk behaviors were analyzed using Latent Class Analysis (LCA.A five group solution had excellent fit scores and interpretability. Factor analysis confirmed the existence of two major dimensions of variation: non-adherence and heroin use. The five groups included lower-risk prescription opioid users, non-adherent prescription opioid users and heroin users. The non-adherent prescription opioid users and heroin user classes were both further subdivided into "occasional" and "regular" use categories. In addition to endorsing a greater number of overdose risk behaviors, users in the regular use classes were more likely to screen positive for alcohol and substance use disorders, reported greater self-medicating opioid use to relieve anxiety, reported greater problems with physical pain, were more likely to have had mental health, alcohol and drug treatment, and were less likely to be employed or in school. Heroin users also were less likely to report stable housing.Findings indicate that opioid overdose risk classes are grounded in contextual factors related to experiences of psychological, physiological, and social adjustment pain and distress which should be addressed in tailored interventions targeting opioid users' unique constellations of risk behaviors and comorbid conditions.

  13. Comparative estimates of risks arising from storage of intermediate level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, D.

    1986-04-01

    Estimates are presented of risks arising from accidents occuring during storage of nine types of conditioned intermediate level waste. Additional data are introduced relating to the risks from accidents affecting raw waste, and to risks associated with the occupational doses received during normal operation of a waste store. Risks in all three categories are shown to be extremely small. (author)

  14. AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahin Tafazoli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

  15. Applying the reasoned action approach to understanding health protection and health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Mark; McEachan, Rosemary; Lawton, Rebecca; Gardner, Peter

    2017-12-01

    The Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) developed out of the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior but has not yet been widely applied to understanding health behaviors. The present research employed the RAA in a prospective design to test predictions of intention and action for groups of protection and risk behaviors separately in the same sample. To test the RAA for health protection and risk behaviors. Measures of RAA components plus past behavior were taken in relation to eight protection and six risk behaviors in 385 adults. Self-reported behavior was assessed one month later. Multi-level modelling showed instrumental attitude, experiential attitude, descriptive norms, capacity and past behavior were significant positive predictors of intentions to engage in protection or risk behaviors. Injunctive norms were only significant predictors of intention in protection behaviors. Autonomy was a significant positive predictor of intentions in protection behaviors and a negative predictor in risk behaviors (the latter relationship became non-significant when controlling for past behavior). Multi-level modelling showed that intention, capacity, and past behavior were significant positive predictors of action for both protection and risk behaviors. Experiential attitude and descriptive norm were additional significant positive predictors of risk behaviors. The RAA has utility in predicting both protection and risk health behaviors although the power of predictors may vary across these types of health behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Social and behavioral research on risk: uses in risk management decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1984-01-01

    The overall objective of this paper is to describe the principal uses of social and behavioral research in risk management decision-making. Five such uses are identified and discussed, including uses in (1) identifying the nature and extent of public concern; (2) structuring public debate and resolving conflicts; (3) anticipating public responses to new technologies; (4) conducting and informing the public; and (5) designing and implementing risk management policies and systems. (author)

  17. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  18. HIV Prevalence and Risk Behaviors in Male to Female (MTF) Transgender Persons in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-Espinoza, Kristian Jesús; Menchaca-Diaz, Rufino; Patterson, Thomas L; Urada, Lianne A; Smith, Davey; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Pitpitan, Eileen V

    2017-12-01

    Compared to HIV research on men who have sex with men, less is known about the risks and vulnerabilities for HIV among Male to Female (MTF) transgender persons, particularly in different geographic regions like Mexico. In Tijuana, Mexico, a border city experiencing a dynamic HIV epidemic, no precedent data exists on the MTF transgender population. Our aims were to estimate HIV prevalence and examine the behaviors and characteristics of the population. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 100 MTF transgender persons recruited through time location sampling in 2012. Participants underwent interviewer-administered (paper and pen) surveys and rapid tests for HIV. Descriptive univariate analyses were conducted on various factors, including sociodemographics, substance use, accessing social services (requested vs. received), stigma, and sex behaviors. A total of 22% tested positive for HIV, a prevalence higher than other key populations at risk for HIV in Tijuana.

  19. Chaos, Hubbub, and Order Scale and Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescents in Los Angeles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Avik; Gillman, Matthew W; Wong, Mitchell D

    2015-12-01

    To determine the relationship between household chaos and substance use, sexual activity, and violence-related risk behaviors in adolescents. We analyzed cross-sectional data among 929 high-school students in Los Angeles who completed a 90-minute interview that assessed health behaviors and household chaos with the 14-question Chaos, Hubbub, and Order Scale (CHAOS). Using the generalized estimating equation and adjusting for personal, parental, and family covariates, we examined associations of CHAOS score with substance use, sexual activity, and violent behavior outcome variables. We also examined the role of depression and school engagement as mediators. Mean (SD) age of the 929 students was 16.4 (1.3) years, 516 (55%) were female, and 780 (84%) were Latino. After adjustment, compared with students with CHAOS score 0, those students with the greatest scores (5-14) had ORs of 3.1 (95% CI 1.1-8.7) for smoking, 2.6 (95% CI 1.6-4.4) for drinking, 6.1 (95% CI 1.8-21) for substance use at school, and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.3) for fighting in the past 12 months. Associations between CHAOS score and sexual risk and other violent behaviors were not significant. Depression and school engagement attenuated the associations. In this group of adolescents, greatest CHAOS score was associated with increased odds of risky health behaviors, with depression and school engagement as potential mediators. In the future, CHAOS score could be measured to assess risk for such behaviors or be a target for intervention to reduce chances of engaging in these behaviors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2018-06-01

    Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Social network analysis and high risk behavior characteristics of recreational drug users: a qualitative study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Di; Wang, Zhenhong; Jiang, Zhenxia; Fu, Xiaojing; Li, Hui; Zhang, Dapeng; Liu, Hui; Hu, Yifei

    2014-11-01

    To understand the characteristics of recreational drug users' behaviors and social network, as well as their potential impact to the transmission of sexual transmitted infections (STI). Qualitative interview was used to collect information on rough estimation of population size and behavior change before and after recreational drug use. A total of 120 participants were recruited by convenient sampling from April to October, 2013 in a community of Qingdao city. Blood specimens were taken for HIV/syphilis serological testing and social network analysis was performed to understand the characteristics of their behavior and social network. All participants used methamphetamine and 103 of them showed social connection. The prevalence of syphilis and HIV were 24.2% (29/120) and 2.5% (3/120) respectively. The estimated size of recreational drug users was big with a wide diversity of occupations and age range, and males were more frequent than females. Drug use may affect condom use and frequent drug users showed symptom of psychosis and neuro-toxicities. The size of social network was 2.45 ± 1.63 in the past 6 months, which indicated an increasing trend of the sexual partner number and risky behaviors. Recreational drug use could increase the size of social network among sex partners, the frequency of risky sexual behaviors and syphilis prevalence, which indicate a high risk of HIV/STI among this population as well as a huge burden of disease prevention and control in the future.

  2. Executive functioning and risk-taking behavior in Parkinson's disease patients with impulse control disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, Fanny; Roze, Emmanuel; Lacomblez, Lucette; Bonnet, Anne-Marie; Vidailhet, Marie; Czernecki, Virginie; Corvol, Jean-Christophe

    2016-06-01

    Impulse control disorders (ICD) are common in Parkinson's disease (PD) and are associated with dopaminergic medication. The purpose of this study was to investigate executive function and risk-taking behavior in PD patients with ICD. 17 PD patients with ICD (ICD-PD) were compared to 20 PD patients without ICD (CTRL-PD) using neuropsychological and experimental tasks. Executive functions were assessed using standard executive testing (Conner's Performance Test, Modified Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Trail Making Test and phonological verbal fluency). Subjects were also submitted to an experimental gambling task consisted of three decks of money cards: neutral deck (equal opportunity for gains as losses), winning deck (small amount of money with a positive balance) and loser deck (high amount of money with a negative balance), evaluating risk-taking behavior (number of cards picked in each deck) and valuation of the reward (subjective appreciation of the value of each deck). There was no significant difference in executive functioning between groups. Both groups selected more cards in the losing deck (high amount of money) as compared to the neutral deck (Mann-Whitney test, ICD-PD, p = 0.02; CTRL-PD, p = 0.003) and to the winning deck (Mann-Whitney test, ICD-PD p = 0.0001; CTRL-PD p = 0.003), suggesting an increased risk-taking behavior. Interestingly, we found that ICD-PD patients estimated the value of decks differently from CTRL-PD patients, taking into account mainly the positive reinforced value of the decks (Mann-Whitney test, p = 0.04). This study showed that executive pattern and risk-taking behavior are similar between ICD-PD and CTRL-PD patients. However, ICD-PD patients showed a specific deficit of the subjective estimation of the reward. Links between this deficit and metacognitive skills are discussed.

  3. Theory of planned behavior interventions for reducing heterosexual risk behaviors: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyson, Mandy; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E S

    2014-12-01

    The meta-analysis reported here examined interventions informed by the theory of planned behavior (TPB) or theory of reasoned action (TRA) aimed at reducing heterosexual risk behaviors (prevention of STDs and unwanted pregnancy). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were either randomized control trials or quasi-experimental studies that compared the TPB-based intervention against a control group. Search strategy consisted of articles identified in previous reviews, keyword search through search engines, examination of key journals, and contacting key experts. Forty-seven intervention studies were included in the meta-analysis. Random effects models revealed that pooled effect sizes for TPB-based interventions had small but significant effects on behavior and other secondary outcomes (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, and intentions). Significant heterogeneity found between effect sizes was explored using metaregression. Larger effects were found for interventions that provided opportunities for social comparison. The TPB provides a valuable framework for designing interventions to change heterosexual risk behaviors. However, effect sizes varied quite substantially between studies, and further research is needed to explore the reasons why.

  4. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Linde, A.H.; Bubeck, P.; Dekkers, J.E.C.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2011-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine

  5. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism

  6. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  7. Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

  8. Prevalence of bovine brucellosis and related risk behavior in the suburban area of Dakar, Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tialla

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and the frequency of risk behaviors in the zoonotic transmission of bovine brucellosis in suburban Dakar. The individual serological status of 300 cattle distributed in thirty farms in this area was determined by the rose Bengal and complement fixation tests. The frequency of risk behaviors toward this zoonosis was determined using two epidemiological surveys that inventoried the known risk factors of brucellosis transmission between animals and humans. Taking into account the sensitivity and specificity of rose Bengal and complement fixation tests used in series, i.e. 85% and 98.75 %, respectively, the true prevalence was estimated to be 36.36%. At least one animal was infected in 96.6% of the herds. Positivity to the complement fixation test was significantly associated with age, breed, abortion and the presence of bursitis in cattle. The risk behaviors the most frequently observed in humans in this area were: assisting during calving and abortion, handling of aborted fetuses without gloves, and consuming unpasteurized raw or curd milk and fresh cheese. These results show that brucellosis is present in dairy cattle farms in suburban Dakar. Since the milk produced in these farms is used to supply the city of Dakar, measures must be developed to promote brucellosis prevention methods aimed at Dakar’s population.

  9. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.; Wernette, D.R.; Hemphill, R.C.; Mohiudden, S.; Corso, J.

    1990-02-01

    In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to initiate the process of choosing a location to permanently store high-level nuclear waste from the designated Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a candidate site for such a repository. The original acts and its amendments had established the grant mechanism by which the state of Nevada could finance an investigation of the potential socioeconomic impacts that could result from the installation and operation of this facility. Over the past three years, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM or RW) in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved grant requests by Nevada to perform this investigation. This report is intended to update and enhance a literature review conducted by the Human Affairs Research Center (HARC) for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project that dealt with the psychological and sociological processes underlying risk perception. It provides addition information on the HARC work, covers a subsequent step in the impact-estimation process, and translates risk perception into decisions and behaviors with economic consequences. It also covers recently developed techniques for assessing the nature and magnitude of impacts caused by environmental changes focusing on those impacts caused by changes in perceived risks

  11. Identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images; An annotated bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Wernette, D.R.; Hemphill, R.C.; Mohiudden, S.; Corso, J.

    1990-02-01

    In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to initiate the process of choosing a location to permanently store high-level nuclear waste from the designated Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a candidate site for such a repository. The original acts and its amendments had established the grant mechanism by which the state of Nevada could finance an investigation of the potential socioeconomic impacts that could result from the installation and operation of this facility. Over the past three years, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM or RW) in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved grant requests by Nevada to perform this investigation. This report is intended to update and enhance a literature review conducted by the Human Affairs Research Center (HARC) for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project that dealt with the psychological and sociological processes underlying risk perception. It provides addition information on the HARC work, covers a subsequent step in the impact-estimation process, and translates risk perception into decisions and behaviors with economic consequences. It also covers recently developed techniques for assessing the nature and magnitude of impacts caused by environmental changes focusing on those impacts caused by changes in perceived risks.

  12. [Association between tattoos, piercings and risk behaviors in adolescents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossio, María Laura T; Giesen, Laura F; Araya, Gabriela; Pérez-Cotapos, María Luisa S

    2012-02-01

    The use of tattoos and piercings has increased, especially among adolescents in the last decades. To evaluate the prevalence of these behaviors in adolescents and their association with risk behaviors such as alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use and sexual promiscuity. An anonymous and confidential survey about tattooing and piercings was applied to randomly selected high school teenagers, attending municipal, private-subsidized and private schools, in four sectors of Santiago (north-east, south-east, north-west, south-west). The surveys were answered by 1329 participants with a mean age of 15 years (62% women) from 9 schools in Santiago. The prevalence of tattoos was 1.7% (confidence intervals (CI) 1.1% to 2.5%). The figure for piercings was 30.6% (CI 28.2 to 33.1%). A higher prevalence of tattooing and piercings was observed in groups with a history of psychiatric disorders, criminal records, alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug consumption and initiation of sexual activity (p < 0,001). This study confirms that tattoos and piercings are indicators of adolescent risk behaviors.

  13. Examining Residence Status as a Risk Factor for Health Risk Behaviors among College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiBello, Angelo M.; Benz, Madeline B.; Miller, Mary Beth; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Carey, Kate B.

    2018-01-01

    Objective: The current study is aimed to evaluate college student residence as a unique risk factor for a range of negative health behaviors. Participants: We examined data from 63,555 students (66% females) from 157 campuses who completed the National College Health Assessment Survey in Spring 2011. Methods: Participants answered questions about…

  14. Estimated risk contribution for dry spent fuel storage cask

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, C.; Kirk, M.T.; Abramson, L.; Guttmann, J.; Hackett, E.; Simonen, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is pursuing means to risk-inform its regulations and programs for dry storage of spent nuclear fuel. In pursuit of this objective, the NRC will develop safety goals and probabilistic risk assessments for implementing risk-informed programs. This paper provides one example method for calculating the risk of a dry spent fuel storage cask under normal and accident conditions. The example is on the HI-STORM 100 cask at a proposed site containing four thousand such casks. The paper evaluates the risk to the public by determining the likelihood a welded stainless steel container will leak. In addition, the study addresses the risk at a site where 4,000 casks may be stored until the U.S. Department of Energy accepts the casks for placement in a repository. The methods used employ the PRODIGAL computer code to assess the probability of a faulty weld on a stainless steel-welded canister. These analyses are only the initial stages of a comprehensive risk study that the NRC is performing in support of its regulatory initiatives. (author)

  15. Cardiometabolic risk factors and health behaviors in family caregivers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alyson Ross

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to compare components of cardiometabolic risk and health behaviors of 20 family caregivers of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients to those of age, gender, and race/ethnicity-matched controls. A prospective, repeated measures design was used to compare cardiometabolic risk and health behaviors in caregivers and controls at three time-points: pre-transplantation, discharge, and six weeks post-discharge. Measures included components of metabolic syndrome, Reynolds Risk Score, NMR serum lipoprotein particle analyses, and the Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II (HPLP-II. Mixed-model repeated measure analyses were used. There were no between or within group differences in LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides. There was a significant interaction effect between time and role in large VLDL concentration (VLDL-P (F (2, 76 = 4.36, p = .016, with the trajectory of large VLDL-P increasing over time in caregivers while remaining stable in controls. Within caregivers, VLDL particle size (VLDL-Z was significantly larger at time-point three compared to time-points one (p = .015 and two (p = .048, and VLDL-Z was significantly larger in caregivers than in controls at time point three (p = .012. HPLP-II scores were lower in caregivers than controls at all time-points (p < .01. These findings suggest that caregiving may have a bigger impact on triglycerides than on other lipids, and it is through this pathway that caregivers may be at increased cardiometabolic risk. More sensitive measurement methods, such as NMR lipoprotein particle analyses, may be able to detect early changes in cardiometabolic risk.

  16. Ruminative subtypes and impulsivity in risk for suicidal behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valderrama, Jorge; Miranda, Regina; Jeglic, Elizabeth

    2016-02-28

    Rumination has been previously linked to negative psychological outcomes, including depression and suicidal behavior. However, there has been conflicting research on whether or not two different subtypes of rumination - brooding and reflection - are more or less maladaptive. The present research sought to (1) examine whether individuals high in brooding but lower in reflection would show higher trait and behavioral impulsivity, relative to individuals low in brooding and low in reflection; and (2) examine impulsivity as a mediator of the relation between ruminative subtypes and suicidal ideation. In Study 1, participants (N=78) were recruited based on high, average, and low scores on a measure of brooding and reflective rumination. Individuals who scored high in brooding and average in reflection scored significantly higher in negative urgency, that is, in the tendency to act rashly in an attempt to reduce negative affect, than did those who scored low in brooding and low in reflection. Study 2 (N=1638) examined the relationship between ruminative subtypes, impulsivity, and suicide risk. We found an indirect relationship between brooding and suicide risk through lack of premeditation and lack of perseverance, independently of reflection. These findings are discussed in relation to cognitive risk for suicide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. THE MAIN SOCIAL RISK FACTORS IN THE FEMININ DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Cristiana NILĂ STRATONE

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The feminine criminality is a social phenomenon of defining importance in trying to draw the portrait of contemporary human society. What is the basic mechanism of this dimension of human behavior remains a continuing challenge for criminology researchers and beyond. The feminine offenses segment dresses a form of atypical aggressivity. This is the main reason who determine the identification, analization and explanation of the factors that influence and shapes the behavior of the woman, bringing it to the form of criminal behavior. The contradiction between femininity and criminality is outlined as an intrigue of gender stereotypes, which the researcher can not bypass. That is why patterns, items, everything on the background of social change are considered. The social change comes, in turn, with challenges both from the domestic area and from the outside of the family. In this paper we will review the main social nature factors that trigger the deviant behavior leading this to delinquency and even determining its identification with forms of delinquency. Women's evolution in time, in terms of age and social modernization, results in changes in the feminine attitude, the typical female actions, woman's personality as a mother, married couple, daughter, girlfriend, etc. The purpose of this study is to present risk factors with criminogen potential on women's behavior in society. Behavioral deviance, as a result of the multitude of bio-psychological, econ- omic, socio-cultural, political, natural factors, turns into violence, and violence tends to become an increasingly strong component of female temper. Last but not least, it is observed that the femininity itself, under the pressure of social factors, takes on new forms, dominated by aggressiveness.

  18. Methodology development for estimating support behavior of spacer grid spring in core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Kyung Ho; Kang, Heung Seok; Kim, Hyung Kyu; Song, Kee Nam

    1998-04-01

    The fuel rod (FR) support behavior is changed during operation resulting from effects such as clad creep-down, spring force relaxation due to irradiation, and irradiation growth of spacer straps in accordance with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with FR damage due to fretting, therefore the analysis on the FR support behavior is normally required to minimize the damage. The characteristics of the parameters, which affect the FR support behavior, and the methodology developed for estimating the FR support behavior in the reactor core are described in this work. The FR support condition for the KOFA (KOrean Fuel Assembly) fuel has been analyzed by this method, and the results of the analysis show that the fuel failure due to the fuel rod fretting wear is closely related to the support behavior of FR in the core. Therefore, the present methodology for estimating the FR support condition seems to be useful for estimating the actual FR support condition. In addition, the optimization seems to be a reliable tool for establishing the optimal support condition on the basis of these results. (author). 15 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

  19. Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

    2000-03-01

    A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

  20. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  1. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2013-01-01

    This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on

  2. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  3. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  4. Comparing Growth Trajectories of Risk Behaviors from Late Adolescence through Young Adulthood: An Accelerated Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S.; Croudace, Tim J.; Brown, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of…

  5. How Investor Perceptions Drive Actual Trading and Risk-Taking Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, A.O.I.; Post, T.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent work in behavioral finance showed how investors’ perceptions (i.e., return expectations, risk tolerance, and risk perception) affect hypothetical trading and risk-taking behavior. However, are such perceptions also capable of explaining actual trading and risktaking behavior? To answer this

  6. Emotional Intelligence and Health Risk Behaviors in Nursing Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, Alberto; Baizán, Eva María; Faya-Ornia, Goretti; López, María Luisa

    2015-08-01

    To explore the association between emotional intelligence (EI) and risky health behaviors in nursing students at the University of Oviedo (Spain). This cross-sectional study of 275 students used a validated questionnaire to measure EI level, nine risky behaviors (smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, illicit drug use, unhealthy diet, being overweight, sedentarism, risky sun exposure, occupational risk, and unsafe sex), and other factors that may influence EI. Students with the highest EI score had a lower probability of drinking too much alcohol (odds ratio [OR], 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.19, 0.67]), eating too few fruits and vegetables (OR, 0.60; 95% CI [0.34, 0.99]), and having unsafe sex (OR, 0.10; 95% CI [0.01, 0.74]). A dose-response effect was found for those three behaviors (p for trend excessive alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet, and unsafe sex. Training nursing students about EI could improve health behaviors, and thus the role of nurses as health promoters. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  7. Risk factors that influence suicidal behavior in affective disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanojević Albina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known in the literature that the incidence and prevalence of suicide and attempted suicide in psychiatric patients is significantly higher than in the general population. The paper examined risk factors for suicidal behavior in the category of admitted patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of sleep disorders and affective (Unipolar resp. Bipolar depression. Study activated by 80 patients, 40 in both diagnostic groups received treatment at the Special Psychiatric Hospital in Gornja Toponica near Nis. The work methodology used are: psychiatric interview, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD, and the C-SSRS (Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale- assessment tool that assesses suicidal ideation and behavior. The study results show that there is a relationship between suicidal behavior (suicide attempts and suicidal ideation and the diagnosis of bipolar affective disorder, positive history of previous suicide attempts, so that these factors are stronger, to the degree of suicidality higher. On this sample, clearly suicidal behavior, with the same purpose, intensity of suicidal thoughts and medical impairment after suicide attempts were significantly more frequent in patients with Bipolar Affective Disorder in the depressive phase of the illness. Patients with a previous suicide attempt, and poor personal and social circumstances had a higher rate of attempted suicide.

  8. Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-07-15

    Jul 15, 2016 ... density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), triglycerides (TG), high‑density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), urinary albumin‑to‑creatinine ratio ... the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  9. The Program Module of Information Risk Numerical Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Stepanova

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The algorithm of information risks analysis realized in the program module on the basis of threats matrixes and fuzzy cognitive maps describing potential threats on resources is offered in this paper.

  10. Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

    The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

  11. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  12. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  13. BEHAVIOR RISK FACTORS IN INDONESIA: NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD HEALTH SURVEY 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ch. M. Kristanti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A series of National Household Health Surveys (NHHS reported the occurrence of epidemiological transition caused by demographic transition and prolonged economical diversity, Communicable diseases are still prevalent, followed by the emergence of Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs, which are due to an increasing level of behavior risk factors in the population. In the NHHS 2001, a morbidity survey collected information about behavioral risk indicators, whereas the WHO'S STEPwise approach was one of the study instruments. The 'WHO Step 1 questionnaire' was adapted with some modifications. Samples of NHHS, morbidity survey was sub-sample of module sample of National Social Economic Survey (NSES 2001. A sample of 15,148 people aged 10 years+ were analyzed to identify their behavior regarding smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity. These findings are a representation of the national figures, which were presented by characteristics of the population such as: sex, age, residence, region and economic status. Economic status was divided into 5 strata, which were calculated from a quintile of household expenditure. The results showed that 29.7% of the population aged 10 years+ are daily smokers. This is more prevalent in males than females (58.9% vs. 3.7%. This behavior increases by age group, except for the oldest; there are slightly more smokers in rural areas than urban areas (31% vs. 28%, and no difference among regions (30-31%. Those with better economic status are less likely to smoke than poorer ones. Alcohol consumption is reportedly very low (2.7%, more prevalent in males than females (4.9% vs. 0.8%, and higher in rural areas than urban areas (3.1% vs. 2.1%. Eastern Indonesia, was higher than Sumatra, Java and Bali (6.3%, 4.7%, and 1.2% respectively. There were no differences in alcohol consumption according to economic status'.' Physical inactivity is very high (68%, more prevalent in females than males (73% vs. 63%, and higher in

  14. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single...... control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction...

  15. Co-occurrence of risk behaviors among Spanish adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meneses, Carmen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This work examines the co-occurrence of risk behaviors among Spanish adolescents. The analyzed behaviors were sexual activity, the use of alcohol and other drugs, violent conduct and behaviors related to driving mopeds or scooters. The sample consisted of 4,091 adolescents between the ages of 13 to 18, all of them enrolled in one of the four compulsory years of secondary education, the approximate equivalents of the 7th to 10th grades in the US educational system. Cluster analysis indicates that there are four risk profiles, one of which is the profile with the greatest risk and the highest co-occurrence of risk behaviors. This group represents 13% of the sample and is noteworthy for using illegal drugs, driving under the influence of drugs and other activities carried out under the influence of alcohol. Differences have been found among the various profiles according to sociodemographic characteristics such as sex, grade, perception of the family’s economic situation and ethnicity. The findings are discussed and some suggestions are given for prevention intervention.

    Este trabajo examina la concurrencia de comportamientos de riesgo en adolescentes españoles. Los comportamientos analizados fueron la actividad sexual, el consumo de alcohol y otras drogas, conductas violentas y comportamientos en la conducción de ciclomotores o motocicletas. La muestra incluye 4.091 adolescentes de 13 a 18 años, perteneciente a educación secundaria obligatoria. Los resultados obtenidos muestran cuatro perfiles de riesgo, siendo uno de ellos el perfil de más alto riesgo y concurrencia de comportamientos arriesgados. Este grupo supone el 13% en el que destacan las conductas de consumo de drogas lícitas, conducir bajo los efectos de droga y otras conductas realizadas bajo los efectos del alcohol. Se encuentran diferencias entre estos perfiles y las características sociodemográficas como el sexo, el curso, la percepción sobre la economía familiar y

  16. Associations between Modifiable Health-Risk Behaviors and Personality Types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon C. Schommer

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The first objective for this study was to explore if characteristics of personality type (using the Preferred Communication Style Questionnaire are associated with the following modifiable health-risk behaviors: smoking, exercise, alcohol consumption, nutrition, sleep, depression-related stress, anxiety-related stress, healthcare professional usage, and self-discipline. The second objective for this study was to explore if characteristics of personality type are associated with (1 the quality of patient-physician relationships, (2 patient-physician communication, and (3 preferred method for receiving information. Methods: Data were collected from 10,500 adult individuals residing in the United States via an on-line, self-administered survey coordinated by Qualtrics Panels from March 14-30, 2016. Chi-square analysis was used for making comparisons between categories of personality types and items related to health-risk behaviors. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. However, chi-square analysis with large sample sizes (e.g. 10,500 in this study readily yields statistical significance. Practical significance was set at four or more percentage points above or below the overall mean. Results: Regarding objective 1, personality type was associated with all nine health-risk behaviors studied. Personality types within the Experiencer temperament (17% of the U.S. population accounted for 46% of the undesirable scores we computed for health-risk behaviors. The Idealist temperament (17% of population accounted for 32% of the undesirable scores. Conceptualizers (10% of population accounted for 17% of the undesirable scores and Traditionalists (46% of population accounted for 5% of the undesirable scores. Regarding objective 2, the findings showed that personality type was associated with (1 the importance people place on the patient-physician relationship, (2 which characteristics of that relationship are most desirable, (3 desire for

  17. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  18. Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok

    2016-01-01

    Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

  19. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  20. Estimating lung cancer risks of indoor radon: applications for prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klotz, J.B.

    1986-01-01

    The epidemiologic evidence for a serious lung cancer hazard from radon exposure is very strong, and cumulative exposures accrued in residences may frequently overlap those accrued in underground miners. However, many uncertainties exist in extrapolating from mining to indoor risks because of differences in the populations, in radon exposure variables, and in other exposures. Risks are also considered for indoor radon exposures outside the home. There is already suggestive evidence of an association of lung cancer with radon levels in community settings, and several large-scale investigations are in progress. Some important questions regarding quantifying risk may not be approached, however; some further research needs are outlined including development of techniques for preventing or postponing lung cancer in individuals previously exposed to high radon levels. 31 references, 2 tables

  1. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario

  2. Latino Solo Grandparents Raising Grandchildren: Health Risks and Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Deborah M; Fuller-Thomson, Esme

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this descriptive report is to provide the first representative information on the sociodemographic profile and the prevalence of mental and physical health conditions of two "at-risk" groups of Latino caregivers: solo grandparent caregivers and single parents. The 2012 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System was used to compare five dimensions of health on a sample of Latino solo grandparents and Latino single parents, raising their grandchildren/children alone. Bivariate and logistic regression comparative analyses were conducted on study measures. Latino solo grandparents have a high prevalence of chronic health conditions, including arthritis (51%), depression (40%), diabetes (34%), and asthma (34%). Latino single parents have lower but troubling health risks, including depression (22%), diabetes (14%), and asthma (14%). Differences between the two groups were largely due to the grandparents older age. Latino solo grandparents have a high prevalence of several chronic medical conditions. The prevalence of disorders is much lower for Latino single parents, although they too have disturbing health risks. Latino solo grandparents perform their parenting role under intense physical and emotional strain. Health professionals can be instrumental in facilitating interventions that affect the well-being of this expanding family group.

  3. Driving behaviors and accident risk under lifetime license revocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh; Tseng, Chien-Ming; Tseng, I-Yen

    2011-07-01

    This study explored the driving behaviors and crash risk of 768 drivers who were under administrative lifetime driver's license revocation (ALLR). It was found that most of the ALLR offenders (83.2%) were still driving and only a few (16.8%) of them gave up driving completely. Of the offenders still driving, 67.6% experienced encountering a police roadside check, but were not detained or ticketed by the police. Within this group, 50.6% continued driving while encountering a police check, 18.0% of them made an immediate U-turn and 9.5% of them parked and exited their car. As to crash risk, 15.2% of the ALLR offenders had at least one crash experience after the ALLR had been imposed. The results of the logistic regression models showed that the offenders' crash risk while under the ALLR was significantly correlated with their personal characteristics (personal income), penalty status (incarceration, civil compensation and the time elapsed since license revocation), annual distance driven, and needs for driving (working, commuting and driving kids). Low-income offenders were more inclined to have a crash while driving under the ALLR. Offenders penalized by being incarcerated or by paying a high civil compensation drove more carefully and were less of a crash risk under the ALLR. The results also showed there were no differences in crash risk under the ALLR between hit-and-run offences and drunk driving offences or for offenders with a professional license or an ordinary license. Generally, ALLR offenders drove somewhat more carefully and were less of a crash risk (4.3 crashes per million km driven) than legal licensed drivers (23.1 crashes per million km driven). Moreover, they seemed to drive more carefully than drivers who were under short-term license suspension/revocation which previous studies have found. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Intelligent method of plant dynamics behavior estimation by effectively applying similar cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gofuku, Akio; Numoto, Atsushi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu

    1994-01-01

    In order to accomplish efficient execution of a dynamic simulation of engineering systems, it is important to construct suitable mathematical models for the simulation. In the construction of the mathematical models, it is necessary to estimate the system's behavior to suppose the phenomena which are needed to be modeled. The case-based reasoning is considered to be a powerful tool to estimate the outline of system's behavior because we often estimate it from the similar cases which are stored as our experience or in literature. In this study, the technique based on similar cases is investigated to estimate the outline of time-responses of several important variables of pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants at a small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA). The registered cases in case base are gathered from various reports and the authors' numerical simulations related with SBLOCA of PWR plants. The functions to use in the case retrieval are formed from the characteristic features of SBLOCA of PWR plants. On the other hand, the rules to use in the case refinement are obtained from the qualitative and quantitative consideration of plants' behaviors of the cases in the case base. The applicability of the technique is discussed by two simple estimation trials of plant behavior. (author)

  5. Emotional Intelligence as a Predictor of Adolescent Risk Behavior Participation and Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaar, Nicole R.; Williams, John E.

    2012-01-01

    The current study aimed to investigate emotional intelligence as a predictor of adolescent risk participation and risk perception. While research has suggested that certain personality traits relate to adolescent risk behavior and perception, the extent to which emotional intelligence relates to risk behavior participation and perception is…

  6. Relationships between Sports Team Participation and Health-Risk Behaviors among Alternative High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Karen E.; Eisenberg, Marla E.; Bearinger, Linda H.; Fulkerson, Jayne A.; Sieving, Renee E.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Evidence suggests that sports team participation differentially relates to health-risk behaviors. Few studies have explored relationships among high-risk youth. Purpose: To examine associations between weekly sports team participation and health-risk behaviors (substance use, sexual risk-taking, violence involvement) among alternative…

  7. Impact of a financial risk-sharing scheme on budget-impact estimations: a game-theoretic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavious, Arieh; Greenberg, Dan; Hammerman, Ariel; Segev, Ella

    2014-06-01

    As part of the process of updating the National List of Health Services in Israel, health plans (the 'payers') and manufacturers each provide estimates on the expected number of patients that will utilize a new drug. Currently, payers face major financial consequences when actual utilization is higher than the allocated budget. We suggest a risk-sharing model between the two stakeholders; if the actual number of patients exceeds the manufacturer's prediction, the manufacturer will reimburse the payers by a rebate rate of α from the deficit. In case of under-utilization, payers will refund the government at a rate of γ from the surplus budget. Our study objective was to identify the optimal early estimations of both 'players' prior to and after implementation of the risk-sharing scheme. Using a game-theoretic approach, in which both players' statements are considered simultaneously, we examined the impact of risk-sharing within a given range of rebate proportions, on players' early budget estimations. When increasing manufacturer's rebate α to be over 50 %, then manufacturers will announce a larger number, and health plans will announce a lower number of patients than they would without risk sharing, thus substantially decreasing the gap between their estimates. Increasing γ changes players' estimates only slightly. In reaction to applying a substantial risk-sharing rebate α on the manufacturer, both players are expected to adjust their budget estimates toward an optimal equilibrium. Increasing α is a better vehicle for reaching the desired equilibrium rather than increasing γ, as the manufacturer's rebate α substantially influences both players, whereas γ has little effect on the players behavior.

  8. Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-10

    ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

  9. Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

    2018-04-30

    The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houmb, S.H.; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.

    2009-01-01

    Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and

  11. Transfusion complications:Estimate of the residual risk of transfusion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pan- demic. However, there is a lack of multicenter data on the risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV from blood centers in sub-Saharan Africa. Study design and methods: The incidence of HIV infections in the blood donations ...

  12. Estimation of risks associated to land transport of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pages, P.; Tomachevsky, E.

    1987-01-01

    The system analysed concerns the packaging 48Y containing about 12 tons of hexafluoride, 1000 tons/year are forecasted for 1990 on the 900 km road Pierrelatte-Le Havre (France). Probabilities are given by the accident file, container failure by impact or fire and sanitary consequences are analysed. Risk is evaluated and discussed [fr

  13. Reducing Youth Risk Behaviors Through Interactive Theater Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J. Watson

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of risk behaviors in secondary schools is a key concern for parents, teachers, and school administrators. School is one of the primary contexts of socialization for young people; thus, the investment in school-based programs to reduce risk behaviors is essential. In this study, we report on youth who participated in an intervention designed to improve decision-making skills based on positive youth development approaches. We examine changes in decision-making skills before and after involvement in the Teen Interactive Theater Education (TITE program and retrospective self-assessment of change in knowledge, abilities, and beliefs as a result of participating in TITE (n = 127. Youth that reported increases in knowledge, abilities, and beliefs due to the intervention (n = 89 were more likely to think about the consequences of their decisions and list options before making a decision compared to their counterparts that reported less overall learning (n = 38. Implications for intervention research and stakeholders are discussed.

  14. Workplace victimization risk and protective factors for suicidal behavior among active duty military personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourani, Laurel L; Williams, Jason; Lattimore, Pamela K; Morgan, Jessica K; Hopkinson, Susan G; Jenkins, Linda; Cartwright, Joel

    2018-04-22

    Workplace victimization is a potential risk factor for suicidal behaviors (SB) among military personnel that has been largely overlooked. This paper examines both the impact of workplace victimization on reported SB and several potential protective factors associated with such suicidal behaviors in a large sample of active duty soldiers. A case-control study was conducted with 71 soldiers who reported SB in the past 12 months, each matched on sociodemographic characteristics to two others without reported suicidal behaviors. A multiple regression model was estimated to assess the effects of risk and protective factors while controlling for other variables. SB was associated with several aspects of victimization, mental health and substance abuse conditions, pain, impulsivity, stressors, negative life events, work-family conflict, active coping behaviors and positive military-related factors. Controlling for other variables, those with SB were more likely to have sought mental health or substance abuse services, to be depressed, anxious, impulsive, and less resilient than non-SB personnel. Study limitations included the use of retrospective self-report data, absence of some known SB predictors, and a population restricted to active duty Army personnel. SB among active duty personnel is associated with victimization since joining the military and is protected by resiliency. These findings suggest that in addition to the usual mental health factors, these additional predictors should be accounted for in SB intervention and prevention planning for active duty personnel. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Ewe maternal behavior score to estimate lamb survival and performance during lactation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreia Barros de Moraes

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mortality of perinatal lambs and low weight at weaning cause huge liabilities to farmers. Current study describes maternal-filial behavior and evaluates the use of maternal behavior score (MBS to estimate the behavior of ewes and lambs soon after birth, and correlate it with lamb mortality and performance during lactation. Thirty-seven Corriedale ewes were used in a completely randomized design. MBS was assessed up to 24 hours after birth, taking into consideration the distance of the ewe from the lamb at the approach of a person. Maternal behavior, placental weight, weight gain of the lambs until weaning and their survival rate were also evaluated until two hours after lambing. More than 90% of the ewes had adequate maternal behavior, with parental care, even though ewes were very sensitive to the presence of people. There was no significant correlation between MBS and maternal behavior, lamb mortality rate and live weight gain. Under these conditions, MBS was not a useful tool to estimate maternal behavior and performance of lambs.

  16. Estimating direction in brain-behavior interactions: Proactive and reactive brain states in driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Javier O; Brooks, Justin; Kerick, Scott; Johnson, Tony; Mullen, Tim R; Vettel, Jean M

    2017-04-15

    Conventional neuroimaging analyses have ascribed function to particular brain regions, exploiting the power of the subtraction technique in fMRI and event-related potential analyses in EEG. Moving beyond this convention, many researchers have begun exploring network-based neurodynamics and coordination between brain regions as a function of behavioral parameters or environmental statistics; however, most approaches average evoked activity across the experimental session to study task-dependent networks. Here, we examined on-going oscillatory activity as measured with EEG and use a methodology to estimate directionality in brain-behavior interactions. After source reconstruction, activity within specific frequency bands (delta: 2-3Hz; theta: 4-7Hz; alpha: 8-12Hz; beta: 13-25Hz) in a priori regions of interest was linked to continuous behavioral measurements, and we used a predictive filtering scheme to estimate the asymmetry between brain-to-behavior and behavior-to-brain prediction using a variant of Granger causality. We applied this approach to a simulated driving task and examined directed relationships between brain activity and continuous driving performance (steering behavior or vehicle heading error). Our results indicated that two neuro-behavioral states may be explored with this methodology: a Proactive brain state that actively plans the response to the sensory information and is characterized by delta-beta activity, and a Reactive brain state that processes incoming information and reacts to environmental statistics primarily within the alpha band. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

    2017-03-01

    The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for

  18. A new estimation technique of sovereign default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet Ali Soytaş

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Using the fixed-point theorem, sovereign default models are solved by numerical value function iteration and calibration methods, which due to their computational constraints, greatly limits the models' quantitative performance and foregoes its country-specific quantitative projection ability. By applying the Hotz-Miller estimation technique (Hotz and Miller, 1993- often used in applied microeconometrics literature- to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default, one can estimate the ex-ante default probability of economies, given the structural parameter values obtained from country-specific business-cycle statistics and relevant literature. Thus, with this technique we offer an alternative solution method to dynamic general equilibrium models of sovereign default to improve upon their quantitative inference ability.

  19. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ineke; Verschuure, Hans; van der Ploeg, Catharina P B; Brug, Johannes; Raat, Hein

    2010-06-01

    We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. In 2007, 1512 adolescents (aged 12-19 years) in Dutch secondary schools completed questionnaires about their music-listening behavior and whether they experienced hearing-related symptoms after listening to high-volume music. We used their self-reported data in conjunction with published average sound levels of music players, discotheques, and pop concerts to estimate their noise exposure, and we compared that exposure to our own "loosened" (i.e., less strict) version of current European safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About half of the adolescents exceeded safety standards for occupational noise exposure. About one third of the respondents exceeded safety standards solely as a result of listening to MP3 players. Hearing symptoms that occurred after using an MP3 player or going to a discotheque were associated with exposure to high-volume music. Adolescents often exceeded current occupational safety standards for noise exposure, highlighting the need for specific safety standards for leisure-time noise exposure.

  20. Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations the ...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management.......Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... the permitting authorities request qualitative and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) to show the safety and acceptability in terms of failure frequencies and respective consequences. For new technologies not all statistical data might be established or are available in good quality causing assumptions...

  1. Estimation of Employee Turnover with Competing Risks Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzenda Wioletta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Employee turnover accompanies every business organization, regardless of the industry and size. Nowadays, many companies struggle with problems related to the lack of sufficient information about the nature of employee turnover processes. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of these processes is necessary. This article aims to examine the turnover of employees from a big manufacturing company using competing risks models with covariates and without covariates. This technique allows to incorporate the information about the type of employment contract termination. Moreover, Cox proportional hazard model enables the researcher to analyse simultaneously multiple factors that affect employment duration. One of the major observations is that employee remuneration level differentiates most strongly the risk of job resignation.

  2. Dose dependence on stochastic radiobiological effect in radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komochkov, M.M.

    1999-01-01

    The analysis of the results in dose -- effect relationship observation has been carried out on the cell and organism levels, with the aim to obtain more precise data on the risk coefficients at low doses. The results are represented by two contrasting groups of dose dependence on effect: a downwards concave and a J-shaped curve. Both types of dependence are described by the equation solutions of an assumed unified protective mechanism, which comprises two components: constitutive and adaptive or inducible ones. The latest data analysis of the downwards concave dependence curves shows a considerable underestimation of radiation risk in all types of cancer, except leukemia, for a number of critical groups in a population, at low doses comparing to the ICRP recommendations. With the dose increase, the decrease of the effect value per dose unit is observed. It may be possibly related to the switching of the activity of the adaptive protective mechanism, with some threshold dose values being exceeded

  3. Identification and risk estimation of movement strategies during cutting maneuvers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sina; Komnik, Igor; Peters, Markus; Funken, Johannes; Potthast, Wolfgang

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 70% of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur in non-contact situations during cutting and landing maneuvers. Parameters such as footstrike patterns and trunk orientation were found to influence ACL relevant knee loading, however, the relationship between the whole body movement and injury risk is debated. This study identifies whole body movement strategies that increase injury risk, and provides training recommendations to reduce this risk or enable a save return to sports after injury. Experimental cross-sectional study design. Three dimensional movement analysis was carried out to investigate 50 participants performing anticipated 90° cutting maneuvers. To identify and characterize movement strategies, footstrike pattern, knee valgus moment, knee internal rotation moment, angle of attack, shoulder and pelvis axis were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. Three different movement strategies were identified. One strategy included rearfoot striking in combination with a relatively upright body position which generated higher knee joint loads than the second strategy, forefoot striking in combination with more backwards leaning and pre-rotation of the trunk towards the new movement direction. A third strategy combined forefoot striking with less preorientation which increased the ACL relevant knee joint load compared to the second strategy. The identified movement strategies clearly pre-determine the injury risk during non-contact situations with the third strategy as the most unfavorable one. Compared to the study of isolated parameters, the analysis of the whole body movement allowed for detailed separation of more risky from less risky cutting strategies. These results give practical recommendations for the prevention of ACL injury. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  5. Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Masao [Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6 T 1Z2 (Canada)]. E-mail: masao.nakamura@sauder.ubc.ca; Nakashima, Tomoaki [Powerex Corp., Vancouver, BC, V6C 2X8 (Canada); Niimura, Takahide [TNC Systems Technologies, Burnaby, BC, V5 H 2W4 (Canada)

    2006-09-15

    The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power.

  6. Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Masao; Nakashima, Tomoaki; Niimura, Takahide

    2006-01-01

    The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power

  7. Risk-averse purchasing behavior of female dentists and innovation in dental practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J McGrath

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study was to see if there was any correlation between the variables of age, gender, practice location and longevity, and type of practice on the risk-taking behavior of dentists in Connecticut. Risk-taking behavior was defined as the willingness to adopt new technologies. A questionnaire was used to gather data, and a series of questions were then posed to estimate the degree to which the responding dentists would be willing to implement the technology into their practices. Materials and Methods: Three hundred Connecticut dentists were randomly selected from a list of dentists that was provided by Benco Dental Supply Company. A questionnaire was written and mailed to all 300 dentists with a return envelope inside. One hundred twenty-nine dentists responded. The questionnaire contained questions to gather demographic information about the respondents. It posed a hypothetical situation that described a new imaging technology that was recently brought into the market. The only differences between this technology and current imaging machines were that it did not emit any radiation, and it was twice as expensive as comparable imaging technologies. A risk score was calculated based on the responses to the three main questions. Those who would adopt the technology quickly or immediately received higher risk scores, and those who would wait or would not buy the technology at all received low risk scores. The data were then analyzed with SPSS software to detect if there were statistically significant differences between different groups of dentists. Results: Male dentists were found to have higher risk scores than their female counterparts. Men in the 30-39-years age range had the highest risk scores, while women in this age range had the lowest. As age increased, the difference between the sexes decreased. Specialists were found to have higher risk scores compared to general dentists of the same gender; however, male

  8. All-cause mortality risk as a function of sedentary behavior, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Meghan K; Loprinzi, Paul D

    2016-09-01

    Emerging work demonstrates individual associations of sedentary behavior, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) on mortality risk. Limited research has evaluated all three of these parameters in a model when considering mortality risk, and their potential additive association on mortality risk has not been fully evaluated, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used (N = 2,295 adults 20-85 yrs), with follow-up through 2011. Sedentary behavior and MVPA were objectively assessed (accelerometry) with cardiorespiratory estimated from a prediction equation taking into consideration participant demographic, anthropometric and behavioral characteristics. Using the median values, a PACS (Physical Activity Cardiorespiratory Sedentary) score was created that ranged from 0-3, indicating the number of these three positive characteristics. Those with below median sedentary behavior did not have a reduced all-cause mortality risk (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.34-1.04; P = 0.07), but those with above median MVPA (HR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.15-0.82; P = 0.02) and above median CRF did (HR = 0.20; 95% CI: 0.09-0.43; P sedentary behavior, were independently associated with reduced mortality risk. Adults with all three characteristics (below median sedentary and above median MVPA and CRF), however, had the lowest mortality risk.

  9. ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinisa Bogdan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.

  10. Associations of Drug Use, Violence, and Depressive Symptoms with Sexual Risk Behaviors Among Women with Alcohol Misuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kristen; Hutton, Heidi E; Lesko, Catherine R; Monroe, Anne K; Alvanzo, Anika; McCaul, Mary E; Chander, Geetanjali

    2018-05-18

    Alcohol misuse is associated with increased human immunodeficiency virus sexual risk behaviors by women. Drug use, intimate partner violence (IPV), and depressive symptoms frequently co-occur, are well-recognized alcohol misuse comorbidities, and may interact to increase risk behaviors. Using a syndemic framework we examined associations between drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms and sexual risk behaviors by 400 women with alcohol misuse attending an urban sexually transmitted infections clinic. Participants completed computer-assisted interviews querying drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms and sexual risk behavior outcomes-unprotected sex under the influence of alcohol, sex for drugs/money, and number of lifetime sexual partners. We used multivariable analysis to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) for independent and joint associations between drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms and our outcomes. To investigate synergy between risk factors we calculated the relative excess prevalence owing to interaction for all variable combinations. In multivariable analysis, drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms alone and in combination were associated with higher prevalence/count of risk behaviors compared with women with alcohol misuse alone. The greatest prevalence/count occurred when all three were present (unprotected sex under the influence of alcohol [PR, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-4.9]), sex for money or drugs [PR, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-4.2], and number of lifetime partners [PR, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-5.2]). Drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms did not interact synergistically to increase sexual risk behavior prevalence. A higher prevalence of sexual risk behaviors by women with alcohol misuse combined with drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms supports the need for alcohol interventions addressing these additional comorbidities. Copyright © 2018 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation of apparent kinetic parameters of polymer pyrolysis with complex thermal degradation behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srimachai, Taranee; Anantawaraskul, Siripon

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Thermal degradation behavior during polymer pyrolysis can typically be described using three apparent kinetic parameters (i.e., pre-exponential factor, activation energy, and reaction order). Several efficient techniques have been developed to estimate these apparent kinetic parameters for simple thermal degradation behavior (i.e., single apparent pyrolysis reaction). Unfortunately, these techniques cannot be directly extended to the case of polymer pyrolysis with complex thermal degradation behavior (i.e., multiple concurrent reactions forming single or multiple DTG peaks). In this work, we proposed a deconvolution method to determine the number of apparent reactions and estimate three apparent kinetic parameters and contribution of each reaction for polymer pyrolysis with complex thermal degradation behavior. The proposed technique was validated with the model and experimental pyrolysis data of several polymer blends with known compositions. The results showed that (1) the number of reaction and (2) three apparent kinetic parameters and contribution of each reaction can be estimated reasonably. The simulated DTG curves with estimated parameters also agree well with experimental DTG curves. (author)

  12. An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

    2014-03-01

    Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Jung, Wondea

    2017-01-01

    Because it has been indicated that empirical data supporting the estimates used in human reliability analysis (HRA) is insufficient, several databases have been constructed recently. To generate quantitative estimates from human reliability data, it is important to appropriately sort the erroneous behaviors found in the reliability data. Therefore, this paper proposes a scheme to classify the erroneous behaviors identified by the HuREX (Human Reliability data Extraction) framework through a review of the relevant literature. A case study of the human error probability (HEP) calculations is conducted to verify that the proposed scheme can be successfully implemented for the categorization of the erroneous behaviors and to assess whether the scheme is useful for the HEP quantification purposes. Although continuously accumulating and analyzing simulator data is desirable to secure more reliable HEPs, the resulting HEPs were insightful in several important ways with regard to human reliability in off-normal conditions. From the findings of the literature review and the case study, the potential and limitations of the proposed method are discussed. - Highlights: • A taxonomy of erroneous behaviors is proposed to estimate HEPs from a database. • The cognitive models, procedures, HRA methods, and HRA databases were reviewed. • HEPs for several types of erroneous behaviors are calculated as a case study.

  14. Reducing sexual risk behavior among high-risk couples in Northern India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Deborah; Bagga, Rashmi; Nehra, Ritu; Deepika; Sethi, Sunil; Walia, Kamini; Kumar, Mahendra; Villar-Loubet, Olga; Lopez, Maria; Weiss, Stephen M

    2013-09-01

    With a population of 1.1 billion, India is considered to be a country in which effective prevention interventions could contain the development of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 85 % of the extant HIV infections. This study sought to assess the feasibility of conducting a group, culturally tailored behavioral intervention and its impact on sexual barrier use, self-efficacy, knowledge, conflict resolution, and coping among high-risk heterosexual couples in Northern India. This pilot study was conducted at the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh, India from February 2008 to January 2009. Thirty sexually active high-risk couples were drawn from a convenience sample of PGIMER patients attending infectious disease and family planning clinics. Couples participated in 1 month of three weekly gender-concordant behavioral intervention groups and were individually administered assessments preintervention and post-intervention. The intervention was tailored to the Northern Indian context and addressed sexual barrier use, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/sexually transmitted infection transmission, and cognitive behavioral skill building focusing on sexual negotiation and communication. The participants had a mean age of 32 years (men) and 29 years (women), and the majority had at least 10 years of education. At baseline, the majority reported inconsistent condom use (knowledge, and women increased their use of positive coping tactics. The results highlight the potential to successfully utilize a group intervention to discuss sensitive issues such as sexual risk behavior among both men and women. Strategies to improve condom use and communication without increasing intimate partner violence in high-risk couples may be an important adjunct to preventing the development of a generalized epidemic in India.

  15. Macroeconomic environment during infancy as a possible risk factor for adolescent behavioral problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, Seethalakshmi; Balasubramanian, Natarajan; Krishnadas, Rajeev

    2013-02-01

    CONTEXT Economic difficulties at the individual level can lead to a number of behavioral problems, including substance abuse and delinquent behaviors. OBJECTIVE To examine the influence of a nationwide adverse economic environment during infancy, specifically, the high unemployment rates during and after the 1980 and 1981-1982 recessions, on rates of subsequent adolescent substance use and delinquent behaviors. DESIGN We used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and estimated logit regressions to examine the effect of changes in unemployment rates during infancy on the incidence of adolescent behavioral problems, controlling for known youth, family, and environmental risk factors. SETTING Adolescents living in the United States in 1997. PARTICIPANTS Nationally representative sample of 8984 adolescents born from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 1984. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Probability of engaging in substance use (marijuana, smoking, alcohol, and hard [ie, illegal] drugs) and delinquent behaviors (arrest, handgun use, gang affiliation, petty and major theft, property destruction, and assaultive behavior). RESULTS Exposure to a 1% deviation from mean regional unemployment rates at the age of 1 year was associated with an increase in the odds ratios of engaging in marijuana use (1.09 [95% CI, 1.04-1.14]), smoking (1.07 [1.03-1.11]), alcohol use (1.06 [1.02-1.10]), arrest (1.17 [1.09-1.25]), gang affiliation (1.09 [1.00-1.19]), and petty (1.06 [1.01-1.10]) and major theft (1.11 [1.05-1.18]). No significant associations were noted with use of hard drugs, property destruction, and assaultive behavior. CONCLUSIONS The macroeconomic environment during infancy can have serious long-term effects on substance use and delinquent behavior. These potential long-term effects can play an important role in policy making for adolescent mental health care.

  16. Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim

    market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions.......We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...

  17. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Paudel

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

  18. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2013-03-01

    This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

  19. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  20. Virtual driving and risk taking: do racing games increase risk-taking cognitions, affect, and behaviors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Kubitzki, Jörg; Guter, Stephanie; Frey, Dieter

    2007-03-01

    Research has consistently shown that aggressive video console and PC games elicit aggressive cognitions, affect, and behaviors. Despite the increasing popularity of racing (driving) games, nothing is known about the psychological impact of this genre. This study investigated whether playing racing games affects cognitions, affect, and behaviors that can promote risk taking in actual road traffic situations. In Study 1, the authors found that the frequency of playing racing games was positively associated with competitive driving, obtrusive driving, and car accidents; a negative association with cautious driving was observed. To determine cause and effect, in Study 2, the authors manipulated whether participants played 1 of 3 racing games or 1 of 3 neutral games. Participants who played a racing game subsequently reported a higher accessibility of cognitions and affect positively associated with risk taking than did participants who played a neutral game. Finally, on a more behavioral level, in Study 3, the authors found that men who played a racing game subsequently took higher risks in computer-simulated critical road traffic situations than did men who played a neutral game. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. ((c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Estimates o the risks associated with dam failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayyaswamy, P.; Hauss, B.; Hseih, T.; Moscati, A.; Hicks, T.E.; Okrent, D.

    1974-03-01

    The probabilities and potential consequences of dam failure in California, primarily due to large earthquakes, was estimated, taking as examples eleven dams having a relatively large population downstream. Mortalities in the event of dam failure range from 11,000 to 260,000, while damage to property may be as high as $720 million. It was assumed that an intensity IX or X earthquake (on the Modified Mercalli Scale) would be sufficient to completely fail earthen dams. Predictions of dam failure were based on the recurrence times of such earthquakes. For the dams studied, the recurrence intervals for an intensity IX earthquake varied between 20 and 800 years; for an intensity X between 50 and 30,000 years. For the Lake Chabot and San Pablo dams (respectively 20, 30 years recurrent earthquake times for a intensity X) the associated consequences are: 34,000 (Lake Chabot) and 30,000 (San Pablo) people killed; damage $140 million and $77 million. Evaculation was found to ameliorate the consequences slightly in most cases because of the short time available. Calculations are based on demography, and assume 10 foot floodwaters will drown all in their path and destroy all one-unit homes in the flood area. Damage estimates reflect losses incurred by structural damage to buildings and do not include loss of income. Hence the economic impact is probably understated.

  2. Estimates of health risks associated with uranium transportation by air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.; Skagius, K.; Ericsson, A.M.; Karlsson, L.G.; Markstroem, A.

    1989-01-01

    There is today an increased interest for air transport of large quantities of uranium compounds. In this report the health risks from an aircrash where uraniumhexafluoride, uraniumdioxide powder, low enriched unirradiated fuel used in Swedish power reactors and unirradiated MTR-fuel used in the research reactor in Studsvik, is analysed. The radiation doses to personnel and the general public is calculated as well as the ground contamination from the spreaded material. Also air concentration of hydrogenflouride, from uraniumhexaflouride reacting with moisture in the air, is calculated. A number of intermediate results are presented. (authors) (69 refs.)

  3. Multifactorial diseases and risk estimations: special reference of mutation component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuda, Norikazu

    1995-01-01

    Genetic effects of radiation in man have been tractable such aspects as genes, chromosomes, genomes, individuals and populations. In spite of enormous interest from an academic view point on the mechanism studies, it is rather a little study on incidence or prevalence of genetic diseases as hereditary effects when human population in general have been exposed by radiation. Such studies are valuable for radiation protection as well as radiation public health. In this review, I have attempted to reconcile some fragments evidences to derive an important conclusion: the hereditary effects of radiation could not be detected from examination of disease incidence (or prevalence) for the genetic risk. (J.P.N.)

  4. Estimating the risk-return tradeoff in MENA Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M methodology to investigate the return generating process of Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, Kuwait, and Morocco stock market indices. The tradeoff between returns and the conditional variance is found to be positive in all markets. In other words, the empirical findings show that investors are rewarded for their exposure to more risk in these financial markets. This result is consistent with both financial theory and empirical finance.

  5. Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

    2014-02-01

    Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Substance-related traffic-risk behaviors among college students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

    2011-01-01

    Aims Drunk driving is a major public health concern, but drugged driving has received little attention. This study examines drugged driving and riding with a drugged driver in a college student sample, in terms of prevalence, age-related trends, race/sex differences, overlap with drunk driving, and risk for alcohol and marijuana dependence. Methods Students (N=1194) ages 19 to 22 were interviewed annually for three years about past-year frequency of drugged driving, riding with a drugged/drunk driver, drunk driving, access to a car, and alcohol/drug dependence. Annual follow-up rates were excellent (88% to 91%). Repeated measures analyses were conducted using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results One in six (17%wt) 19-year-olds with access to a car drove drugged in the past year; prevalence remained stable through age 22. Drugged driving was more prevalent among males (pdrunk (ranges between 47% and 60%). Both drugged and drunk driving were independently associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence, holding constant age, sex, and race. Drunk driving did not add to the risk for marijuana dependence in the context of drugged driving. Conclusions The prevalence of drugged driving is similar to drunk driving among college students. Both are strongly associated with underlying alcohol and drug dependence. Prevention and treatment implications are discussed. PMID:21601379

  7. Risk factors for disordered weight control behaviors among Korean adolescents: Multilevel analysis of the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongjoo; Austin, S Bryn; Subramanian, S V; Thomas, Jennifer J; Eddy, Kamryn T; Franko, Debra L; Rodgers, Rachel F; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2018-02-01

    To investigate the prevalence and risk factors for disordered weight control behaviors (DWCB) in South Korean adolescents at multiple levels, including individual, family, school, and geographic area. We drew participants from the 11th Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey, conducted in 2015, with 65,529 adolescents (31,687 girls, 33,842 boys) aged 12-18 years. DWCB was defined as engaging in any of the following behaviors for weight control over the past month: fasting, one-food diet (eating only one food over an extended period of time for weight control), vomiting, and taking laxatives/diuretics/unprescribed diet pills. Sex-stratified four-level multilevel logistic models examined potential predictors of DWCB, including age, body-mass index, puberty, perceived household economic status, parental education, living structure, school type and sex-composition, percentage of students participating in school nutrition programs, and urbanicity. Overall, 6.2% of Korean adolescents (8.9% of girls, 3.7% of boys) exhibited any DWCB. We found significant between-school variation among girls and boys and between-classroom variation among girls. Older age, overweight/obesity, pubertal maturity, high household economic status (vs. mid-range economic status), and vocational schooling (vs. general) were positively associated with DWCB among girls and boys. Low household economic status (vs. mid-range economic status), higher parental education, and coeducational schooling (vs. single-sex) were positively associated with DWCB among girls only. The findings suggest that DWCB are prevalent among Korean adolescents across age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Social contextual factors including school and familial environmental factors, as well as individual characteristics, should be considered when developing effective prevention strategies. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Averting Behavior Framework for Perceived Risk of Yersinia enterocolitica Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Sonia N; Aziz, Khwaja M S

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this research is to present a theoretical model of averting actions that households take to avoid exposure to Yersinia enterocolitica in contaminated food. The cost of illness approach only takes into account the value of a cure, while the averting behavior approach can estimate the value of preventing the illness. The household, rather than the individual, is the unit of analysis in this model, where one household member is primarily responsible for procuring uncontaminated food for their family. Since children are particularly susceptible and live with parents who are primary decision makers for sustenance, the designated household head makes the choices that are investigated in this paper. This model uses constrained optimization to characterize activities that may offer protection from exposure to Yersinia enterocolitica contaminated food. A representative household decision maker is assumed to allocate family resources to maximize utility of an altruistic parent, an assumption used in most research involving economics of the family.

  9. Averting Behavior Framework for Perceived Risk of Yersinia enterocolitica Infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia N. Aziz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research is to present a theoretical model of averting actions that households take to avoid exposure to Yersinia enterocolitica in contaminated food. The cost of illness approach only takes into account the value of a cure, while the averting behavior approach can estimate the value of preventing the illness. The household, rather than the individual, is the unit of analysis in this model, where one household member is primarily responsible for procuring uncontaminated food for their family. Since children are particularly susceptible and live with parents who are primary decision makers for sustenance, the designated household head makes the choices that are investigated in this paper. This model uses constrained optimization to characterize activities that may offer protection from exposure to Yersinia enterocolitica contaminated food. A representative household decision maker is assumed to allocate family resources to maximize utility of an altruistic parent, an assumption used in most research involving economics of the family.

  10. Predicting Young Adults Binge Drinking in Nightlife Scenes: An Evaluation of the D-ARIANNA Risk Estimation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocamo, Cristina; Bartoli, Francesco; Montomoli, Cristina; Carrà, Giuseppe

    2018-05-25

    Binge drinking (BD) among young people has significant public health implications. Thus, there is the need to target users most at risk. We estimated the discriminative accuracy of an innovative model nested in a recently developed e-Health app (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults [D-ARIANNA]) for BD in young people, examining its performance to predict short-term BD episodes. We consecutively recruited young adults in pubs, discos, or live music events. Participants self-administered the app D-ARIANNA, which incorporates an evidence-based risk estimation model for the dependent variable BD. They were re-evaluated after 2 weeks using a single-item BD behavior as reference. We estimated D-ARIANNA discriminative ability through measures of sensitivity and specificity, and also likelihood ratios. ROC curve analyses were carried out, exploring variability of discriminative ability across subgroups. The analyses included 507 subjects, of whom 18% reported at least 1 BD episode at follow-up. The majority of these had been identified as at high/moderate or high risk (65%) at induction. Higher scores from the D-ARIANNA risk estimation model reflected an increase in the likelihood of BD. Additional risk factors such as high pocket money availability and alcohol expectancies influence the predictive ability of the model. The D-ARIANNA model showed an appreciable, though modest, predictive ability for subsequent BD episodes. Post-hoc model showed slightly better predictive properties. Using up-to-date technology, D-ARIANNA appears an innovative and promising screening tool for BD among young people. Long-term impact remains to be established, and also the role of additional social and environmental factors.

  11. Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.

    2017-01-01

    "Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

  12. An Estimation of Risk Impact of Anticipated Transients without Scram for a KSNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok Jung; Yang Joon Eon

    2006-07-15

    Anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) event is an accident sequence with large risk impact, while it is a beyond design basis accident (BDBA). We have estimated a risk due to an ATWS accident sequence for the KSNP in consideration of the recent accident analysis results. The SECY-83-293's model for the CE type plants has been used in a risk estimation of ATWS. A risk estimation due to an ATWS for the KSNP has been performed in consideration of the recent ATWS accident analysis results and plant information. We reviewed influence factors in the SECY-83-293's model, these factors have been re-estimated by using current information and PSA results for a KSNP. A risk due to an ATWS has been estimated as 3.6E-6/yr of CDF by using domestic aspect and recent KSNP information. A sensitivity study for the UET variation has been performed. As the results of the sensitivity analysis, the overall risk spectrum by the UET variation is bounded between 7.80E-7/yr to 8.00E-6/yr of CDF. As the result of the current study, the risk due to an ATWS accident sequence has been identified as a considerable impact on the entire risk of a KSNP, so the risk estimation of that plant should be upgraded by considering the recent information like the ATWS accident analysis results. Finally, we expect that this study can become a basis for the entire risk estimation of the referred plant.

  13. Social network composition of vascular patients and its associations with health behavior and clinical risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi Heijmans

    Full Text Available This study aimed to explore linkages of patients' social network composition with health behaviors and clinical risk factors.This observational study was embedded in a project aimed at improving cardiovascular risk management (CRVM in primary care. 657 vascular patients (227 with cardiovascular disease, 380 at high vascular risk, mean age 72.4 (SD 9.4 years, were recruited as were individuals patients considered important for dealing with their disease, so called alters (n = 487. Network composition was measured with structured patient questionnaires. Both patients and alters completed questionnaires to measure health behavior (habits for physical activity, diet, and smoking. Clinical risk factors (systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol level, and body mass index were extracted from patients' medical records. Six logistic regression analyses, using generalized estimating equations, were used to test three hypothesized effects of network composition (having alters with healthful behaviors, without depression, and with specialized knowledge on six outcomes, adjusted for demographic, personal and psychological characteristics.Having alters with overall healthful behavior was related to healthful patient diet (OR 2.14, 95%CI: 1.52-3.02. Having non-smoking alters in networks was related to reduced odds for patient smoking (OR 0.17, 95%CI: 0.05-0.60. No effects of presence of non-depressed alters were found. Presence of alters with specialized knowledge on CVRM was inversely related to healthful diet habits of patients (OR 0.47, 95%CI 0.24-0.89. No significant associations between social network composition and clinical risk factors were found.Diet and smoking, but not physical exercise and clinical risk factors, were associated with social network composition of patients with vascular conditions. In this study of vascular patients, controlling for both personal and psychological factors, fewer network influences were found compared to previous

  14. Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

    2016-01-01

    To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The role of acculturation and family functioning in predicting HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic delinquent youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrelly, Colleen; Cordova, David; Huang, Shi; Estrada, Yannine; Prado, Guillermo

    2013-06-01

    The present study examined the relationship between Berry's acculturation typology and HIV risk behaviors and whether family functioning mediated any such effects. A total of 235 high risk Hispanic adolescents were categorized into one of Berry's four acculturation typologies through the use of cut-off scores on measures of Hispanicism and Americanism. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the effects of acculturation typology on HIV risk behaviors and the indirect effects of acculturation typology on HIV risk behaviors through family functioning. Acculturation typology was related to HIV risk behaviors. Family functioning partially mediated the effects of acculturation typology on the HIV risk behavior outcomes. These findings suggest that both Americanism and Hispanicism play an important role in the etiology of HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic youth and that both, along with family functioning, are important to consider when designing preventive interventions for this population.

  16. Supportive relationships and sexual risk behavior in adolescence: an ecological-transactional approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrich, Christopher C; Brookmeyer, Kathryn A; Shrier, Lydia A; Shahar, Golan

    2006-04-01

    To examine the longitudinal associations between supportive relationships with friends and parents and sexual risk behavior in adolescence based on an ecological-transactional perspective. Analyses were conducted on 2,652 sexually active adolescents from the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). African-American adolescents had lower risk for sexual risk behavior. Supportive friendships and parent connectedness interacted in predicting decreased likelihood of sexual risk behavior. Mother-child communication about sex contributed to decreased likelihood of sexual risk only for girls. There were also small reciprocal effects of sexual risk behavior on decreased relationship quality over time. To better understand the parents' role in adolescent sexual risk behavior, multiple facets of parenting, the social contexts of parenting and adolescents' peers, and the effects of adolescents' behavior on these relationships should be taken into consideration.

  17. High-Risk Health and Credit Behavior among 18- to 25-Year-Old College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Troy; Moore, Monique

    2007-01-01

    The number of students accumulating credit card debt--and the amount of debt itself--on college campuses is increasing. If high-risk credit and health behavior are associated, health behavior interventions might apply to high-risk credit behavior. Objective: The authors' purpose was to examine these possible associations. Participants and Methods:…

  18. [Television viewing and cardiovascular risk behaviors in the adult population of the French West Indies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrère, P; Atallah, A; Kelly-Irving, M; Lang, T; Inamo, J

    2013-06-01

    Recent studies have shown a link between prolonged television viewing and cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. We aimed to estimate the relationship between television viewing and CV risk behaviors and in the adult population of the French West Indies. We used data from Consant, a cross-sectional study carried out in 2007 on a representative sample of the adult Guadeloupean population (1005 subjects aged 25-74 years selected by stratified random sampling and interviewed at home by trained investigators working in pairs). Among respondents who reported watching television for 2 hours or more per day, 46.5% stated practicing no leisure time physical activity, compared with 35.6% among those who reported watching television for less than 2 hours per day. Adjusting for age, sex, education, income, family status, and perceived CV benefits of physical activity, the odds ratio of physical inactivity was estimated at 1.75 (Ptelevision for 2 hours or more per day, compared with other subjects. A similar relationship was observed when considering dieting to prevent weight gain. In this representative sample of a French Caribbean population, a strong and very significant relationship was observed between prolonged television viewing and CV risk behaviors. Prolonged television viewing seems common to a lifestyle that is characterized by little physical activity and unhealthy eating habits. This may play a role in social inequalities observed in CV diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  19. Parent-child communication processes: preventing children's health-risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riesch, Susan K; Anderson, Lori S; Krueger, Heather A

    2006-01-01

    Review individual, family, and environmental factors that predict health-risk behavior among children and to propose parent-child communication processes as a mechanism to mediate them. Improving parent-child communication processes may: reduce individual risk factors, such as poor academic achievement or self-esteem; modify parenting practices such as providing regulation and structure and acting as models of health behavior; and facilitate discussion about factors that lead to involvement in health-risk behaviors. Assessment strategies to identify youth at risk for health-risk behavior are recommended and community-based strategies to improve communication among parents and children need development.

  20. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of...

  1. National weighting of data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronaldo Iachan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS is a network of health-related telephone surveys--conducted by all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and participating US territories—that receive technical assistance from CDC. Data users often aggregate BRFSS state samples for national estimates without accounting for state-level sampling, a practice that could introduce bias because the weighted distributions of the state samples do not always adhere to national demographic distributions. Methods This article examines six methods of reweighting, which are then compared with key health indicator estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS based on 2013 data. Results Compared to the usual stacking approach, all of the six new methods reduce the variance of weights and design effect at the national level, and some also reduce the estimated bias. This article also provides a comparison of the methods based on the variances induced by unequal weighting as well as the bias reduction induced by raking at the national level, and recommends a preferred method. Conclusions The new method leads to weighted distributions that more accurately reproduce national demographic characteristics. While the empirical results for key estimates were limited to a few health indicators, they also suggest reduction in potential bias and mean squared error. To the extent that survey outcomes are associated with these demographic characteristics, matching the national distributions will reduce bias in estimates of these outcomes at the national level.

  2. Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

    2018-01-01

    To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buschgens, Cathelijne J M; van Aken, Marcel A G; Swinkels, Sophie H N; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C; Buitelaar, Jan K

    2010-07-01

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands (N = 2,230). Regression analyses were used to determine the relative contribution of FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles to parent and teacher ratings of externalizing behaviors. FR-EXT was based on lifetime parental externalizing psychopathology and the different parenting styles (emotional warmth, rejection, and overprotection) were based on the child's perspective. We also investigated whether different dimensions of perceived parenting styles had different effects on subdomains of externalizing behavior. We found main effects for FR-EXT (vs. no FR-EXT), emotional warmth, rejection, and overprotection that were fairly consistent across rater and outcome measures. More specific, emotional warmth was the most consistent predictor of all outcome measures, and rejection was a stronger predictor of aggression and delinquency than of inattention. Interaction effects were found for FR-EXT and perceived parental rejection and overprotection; other interactions between FR-EXT and parenting styles were not significant. Correlations between FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles were absent or very low and were without clinical significance. Predominantly main effects of FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles independently contribute to externalizing behaviors in preadolescents, suggesting FR-EXT and parenting styles to be two separate areas of causality. The relative lack of gene-environment interactions may be due to the epidemiological nature of the study, the preadolescent age of the subjects, the measurement level of parenting and the measurement level of FR-EXT, which might be a consequence of both genetic and

  4. Use of doubling doses for the estimation of genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, A.G.

    1977-01-01

    Doubling dose estimates derived from radiation experiments in mice are proving of great value for the assessment of genetic hazards to man from extra radiation exposure because they allow the latest information on mutation frequencies and the incidence of genetic disease in man to be used in the assessment process. The similarity in spectra of 'spontaneous' and induced mutations increases coincidence in the validity of this approach. Data on rates of induction of dominant and recessive mutations, translocations and X-chromosome loss are used to derive doubling doses for chronic exposures to both low and high-LET radiations. Values for γ and X-rays, derived from both male and female germ-cells, fall inside a fairly small range and it is felt that the use of an overall figure of 100 rads is justifiable for protection purposes. Values for neutrons and α-particles, obtained from male germ-cells, varied according to neutron energy etc. but clustered around a value of 5 rads for fission neutrons

  5. Teen Dating Violence (Physical and Sexual) Among US High School Students: Findings From the 2013 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vagi, Kevin J; O'Malley Olsen, Emily; Basile, Kathleen C; Vivolo-Kantor, Alana M

    2015-05-01

    National estimates of teen dating violence (TDV) reveal high rates of victimization among high school populations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national Youth Risk Behavior Survey has provided often-cited estimates of physical TDV since 1999. In 2013, revisions were made to the physical TDV question to capture more serious forms of physical TDV and to screen out students who did not date. An additional question was added to assess sexual TDV. To describe the content of new physical and sexual TDV victimization questions first administered in the 2013 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey, to share data on the prevalence and frequency of TDV (including the first-ever published overall "both physical and sexual TDV" and "any TDV" national estimates using these new questions), and to assess associations of TDV experience with health-risk behaviors. Secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional survey of 9900 students who dated, from a nationally representative sample of US high school students, using the 2013 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Two survey questions separately assessed physical and sexual TDV; this analysis combined them to create a 4-level TDV measure and a 2-level TDV measure. The 4-level TDV measure includes "physical TDV only," "sexual TDV only," "both physical and sexual TDV," and "none." The 2-level TDV measure includes "any TDV" (either or both physical and sexual TDV) and "none." Sex-stratified bivariate and multivariable analyses assessed associations between TDV and health-risk behaviors. In 2013, among students who dated, 20.9% of female students (95% CI, 19.0%-23.0%) and 10.4% of male students (95% CI, 9.0%-11.7%) experienced some form of TDV during the 12 months before the survey. Female students had a higher prevalence than male students of physical TDV only, sexual TDV only, both physical and sexual TDV, and any TDV. All health-risk behaviors were most prevalent among students who experienced both forms of TDV and were

  6. The TGT Estimation of the Social Behavior Characteristics for Permanent Resident around NPPs in KOREA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Sun-Young; Lee, Gab-Bock; Chung, Yang-Geun

    2006-01-01

    The most strong protection method of radiation emergency preparedness is the evacuation when a great deal of radionuclide materials is released to environment. NRC(Nuclear Regulation Committee) made the evacuation time estimation to be necessary condition of emergency plan as the basis technology through the NUREG-0654 and has performed the research of the evacuation using traffic analysis continuously. In KOREA, The Notice 2004-11 of Ministry of Science and Technology nuclear enterprise must estimate evacuation time through the consultation with local autonomous entities and the result of the consultation must be appended in emergency plan. But evacuation estimation method in KOREA was based on simple assumption which did not consider evacuation characteristics and traffic analysis; therefore it could not reflect actual accident adequately. Besides technical aspect, the characteristics of personal and social behavior must be considered in evaluation of the evacuation time. These characteristics of behavior emerged in the research of natural and human disaster rather than nuclear accident which has little experience. So, the characteristics of personal and social behavior must be considered in evacuation time estimation

  7. Relationships Between Future Orientation, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and Risk Behavior Among Adjudicated Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Reuben N.; Bryan, Angela

    2004-01-01

    Because of high levels of risk behavior, adjudicated adolescents are at high risk for negative health outcomes such as nicotine and drug addiction and sexually transmitted diseases. The goal of this article is to examine relationships between future orientation and impulsive-sensation-seeking personality constructs to risk behaviors among 300…

  8. Brief Intervention for Truant Youth Sexual Risk Behavior and Marijuana Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembo, Richard; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Barrett, Kimberly; Ungaro, Rocio; Winters, Ken C.; Belenko, Steven; Karas, Lora M.; Gulledge, Laura; Wareham, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Substance use and sexual risk behaviors are common among adolescents, but research has focused attention on alcohol use. Much less is known about the relationship of marijuana use and sexual risk behavior among high-risk, especially truant, youths. We report interim findings from a NIDA-funded experimental, brief intervention (BI) study involving…

  9. Risk behaviors for eating disorder: factors associated in adolescent students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo de Sousa Fortes

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Evidence shows that the prevalence of risk behaviors for eating disorders (RBED among young people has increased in recent years. Body dissatisfaction, excessive exercise, body composition, economic status, and ethnicity may be risk factors for RBED. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of body dissatisfaction, psychological commitment to exercise, body fat, nutritional status, economic class, and ethnicity with RBED in adolescents. METHOD: This study included 562 boys and girls aged 10 to 15 years. We used the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26 to assess RBED. The Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ and the Commitment to Exercise Scale (CES were used to measure body dissatisfaction and commitment to exercise, respectively. Skin fold thickness was measured to classify body fat according to sex. Weight and height were measured to calculate the body mass index (BMI and classify participants according to nutritional status. The economic class was recorded according to the Brazilian Economic Classification Criterion. A questionnaire was used to record ethnicity, age and sex. Binary logistic regression was used to determine associations between variables. RESULTS: The results showed an association of RBED with body dissatisfaction, CES scores, and economic class among girls (p < 0.05. Among boys, body dissatisfaction, body fat, and nutritional status were associated with RBED (p < 0.05. CONCLUSION: Even though body dissatisfaction had the highest odds ratio, other variables were also associated with RBED.

  10. Risk behaviors for sexually transmitted diseases among crack users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Alves Guimarães

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available AbstractObjectives: to investigate the prevalence and risk behaviors by means of reporting of sexually transmitted diseases among crack users.Method: cross-sectional study carried out with 588 crack users in a referral care unit for the treatment of chemical dependency. Data were collected by means of face-to-face interview and analyzed using Stata statistical software, version 8.0.Results: of the total participants, 154 (26.2%; 95% CI: 22.8-29.9 reported antecedents of sexually transmitted diseases. Ages between 25 and 30 years (RP: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.0-4.0 and over 30 years (RP: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.1-6.8, alcohol consumption (RP: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.1-3.3, antecedents of prostitution (RP: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.3-2.9 and sexual intercourse with person living with human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS (RP: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.8-4.2 were independently associated with reporting of sexually transmitted diseases.Conclusion: the results of this study suggest high risk and vulnerability of crack users for sexually transmitted diseases.

  11. False consensus and adolescent peer contagion: examining discrepancies between perceptions and actual reported levels of friends' deviant and health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinstein, Mitchell J; Wang, Shirley S

    2005-06-01

    Adolescents' perceptions of their friends' behavior strongly predict adolescents' own behavior, however, these perceptions often are erroneous. This study examined correlates of discrepancies between adolescents' perceptions and friends' reports of behavior. A total of 120 11th-grade adolescents provided data regarding their engagement in deviant and health risk behaviors, as well as their perceptions of the behavior of their best friend, as identified through sociometric assessment. Data from friends' own report were used to calculate discrepancy measures of adolescents' overestimations and estimation errors (absolute value of discrepancies) of friends' behavior. Adolescents also completed a measure of friendship quality, and a sociometric assessment yielding measures of peer acceptance/rejection and aggression. Findings revealed that adolescents' peer rejection and aggression were associated with greater overestimations of friends' behavior. This effect was partially mediated by adolescents' own behavior, consistent with a false consensus effect. Low levels of positive friendship quality were significantly associated with estimation errors, but not overestimations specifically.

  12. Estimation of lung cancer risk from environmental exposure to airborne plutonium from the Rocky Flats Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutherland, J.V.

    1983-01-01

    A three-phase study was undertaken to (1) determine the nature of disagreement among scientists concerning risk of environmental release of plutonium, (2) develop an analytic procedure for determining risk based on clearly stated principles defensible by reference to the literature, and (3) develop estimates of radiation dose to the lung from exposure to plutonium in ambient air for the purpose of evaluating risk to an individual with a specified age and smoking history. Eleven epidemiologists, biostatisticians and radiation scientists participated in Phase I of the study. It was shown that no clearly stated analytical principles for risk estimation were in common use, resulting in widely divergent risk estimates. Five of these disagreeing scientists in Phase I (including all cancer epidemiologists in the Denver metropolitan area) were chosen for Phase II of the study. A single analytic procedure was developed which was unanimously agreed upon. This procedure was dependent on the estimate of dose to the lung from ambient air levels of Rocky Flats plutonium. In Phase III of the study, a panel of four radiation scientists developed a procedure for estimation of dose to the lung from chronic exposure to plutonium ambient air levels. Results from all phases of the study were used to develop a method for estimation of relative risk of lung cancer for an individual, given plutonium dose to the lung, age, smoking history and other radiation exposure

  13. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  14. Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh C Nguyen

    Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.

  15. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  16. Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

  17. Crossover effect of spouse weekly working hours on estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo-Yeol Kang

    Full Text Available To investigate the association between spouse weekly working hours (SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD.This cross-sectional study was based on the data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. Data of 16,917 participants (8,330 husbands, 8,587 wives were used for this analysis. The participants' clinical data were collected to estimate the 10-years risk of CVD, as well as weekly working hours. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD. We also performed a stratified analysis according to each participant's and their spouse's employment status.Compared to those whose spouses worked 30 hours per week, estimated 10-years risk of CVD was significantly higher as SWWH increase among those whose spouses worked >30 hours per week. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for high CVD risk was found to increase as SWWH increased, up to 2.52 among husbands and 2.43 among wives. We also found that the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD varied according to the employment status. Analysis of each component included in the CVD appraisal model showed that SWWH had close relationship with diabetes in men, and smoking habits in women.Spouse's long working hours are associated with individual's risk of CVD in future, especially among husbands.

  18. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  19. An update on standards for radiation in the environment and associated estimates of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocher, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    This presentation reviews current and proposed standards, recommendations, and guidances for limiting routine radiation exposures of the public, and estimates the risk corresponding to standards, recommendations, and guidances. These estimates provide a common basis for comparing different criteria for limiting public exposures to radiation, as well as hazardous chemicals

  20. REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

  1. Comparison of the risks of shopping behavior and opioid abuse between tapentadol and oxycodone and association of shopping behavior and opioid abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, M Soledad; Fife, Daniel; Kihm, Mary A; Mastrogiovanni, Greg; Yuan, Yingli

    2014-12-01

    This study compared the risks of opioid shopping behavior and opioid abuse between tapentadol immediate release and oxycodone immediate release and, to validate the definition of shopping, examined the association between opioid shopping and opioid abuse further. This retrospective cohort study using linked dispensing and diagnosis databases followed opioid-naive patients for development of shopping behavior and/or opioid abuse during 1 year after initial exposure to tapentadol or oxycodone. Shopping was defined by having overlapping opioid prescriptions from >1 prescriber filled at ≥3 pharmacies; abuse by having International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision diagnoses reflecting opioid abuse, addiction, or dependence. To determine their association, we cross-tabulated shopping and opioid abuse and calculated odds ratios. Risks of developing each outcome were estimated using logistic regression. Among 277,401 participants initiating opioid use with tapentadol (39,524) or oxycodone (237,877), 0.6% developed shopping behavior, 0.75% developed abuse. Higher proportions of patients in the oxycodone group developed shopping behavior and abuse than in the tapentadol group (shopping: adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.45 [0.36-0.55]; abuse: 0.44 [0.37-0.54]). Shopping behavior and abuse were associated; of those with shopping behavior, 6.5% had abuse. Age (18 to 64 y), sex (male), prior benzodiazepine use, paying cash, and history (mood disorders, abuse of nonopioid medications, and back pain) were risk factors for developing either outcome. Shopping behavior and abuse measure complementary, but associated, constructs, which further validates the current definition of shopping. The risk of developing either is lower among patients who initiate opioid use with tapentadol than those who initiate opioid use with oxycodone.

  2. Identifying the Correlation between Water Quality Data and LOADEST Model Behavior in Annual Sediment Load Estimations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youn Shik Park

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Water quality samples are typically collected less frequently than flow since water quality sampling is costly. Load Estimator (LOADEST, provided by the United States Geological Survey, is used to predict water quality concentration (or load on days when flow data are measured so that the water quality data are sufficient for annual pollutant load estimation. However, there is a need to identify water quality data requirements for accurate pollutant load estimation. Measured daily sediment data were collected from 211 streams. Estimated annual sediment loads from LOADEST and subsampled data were compared to the measured annual sediment loads (true load. The means of flow for calibration data were correlated to model behavior. A regression equation was developed to compute the required mean of flow in calibration data to best calibrate the LOADEST regression model coefficients. LOADEST runs were performed to investigate the correlation between the mean flow in calibration data and model behaviors as daily water quality data were subsampled. LOADEST calibration data used sediment concentration data for flows suggested by the regression equation. Using the mean flow calibrated by the regression equation reduced errors in annual sediment load estimation from −39.7% to −10.8% compared to using all available data.

  3. Personality differences predict health-risk behaviors in young adulthood: evidence from a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caspi, A; Begg, D; Dickson, N; Harrington, H; Langley, J; Moffitt, T E; Silva, P A

    1997-11-01

    In a longitudinal study of a birth cohort, the authors identified youth involved in each of 4 different health-risk behaviors at age 21: alcohol dependence, violent crime, unsafe sex, and dangerous driving habits. At age 18, the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ) was used to assess 10 distinct personality traits. At age 3, observational measures were used to classify children into distinct temperament groups. Results showed that a similar constellation of adolescent personality traits, with developmental origins in childhood, is linked to different health-risk behaviors at 21. Associations between the same personality traits and different health-risk behaviors were not an artifact of the same people engaging in different health-risk behaviors; rather, these associations implicated the same personality type in different but related behaviors. In planning campaigns, health professionals may need to design programs that appeal to the unique psychological makeup of persons most at risk for health-risk behaviors.

  4. Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

    2018-05-08

    The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

  5. Cancer risks in BRCA2 families: estimates for sites other than breast and ovary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asperen, C. J.; Brohet, R. M.; Meijers-Heijboer, E. J.; Hoogerbrugge, N.; Verhoef, S.; Vasen, H. F. A.; Ausems, M. G. E. M.; Menko, F. H.; Gomez Garcia, E. B.; Klijn, J. G. M.; Hogervorst, F. B. L.; van Houwelingen, J. C.; van't Veer, L. J.; Rookus, M. A.; van Leeuwen, F. E.

    2005-01-01

    In BRCA2 mutation carriers, increased risks have been reported for several cancer sites besides breast and ovary. As most of the families included in earlier reports were selected on the basis of multiple breast/ovarian cancer cases, it is possible that risk estimates may differ in mutation carriers

  6. Validating diagnoses from hospital discharge registers change risk estimates for acute coronary syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Albert Marni; Schmidt, E.B.; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2007-01-01

    of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) diagnoses identified in a hospital discharge register changed the relative risk estimates of well-established risk factors for ACS. Methods All first-time ACS diagnoses (n=1138) in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified among male participants in the Danish...

  7. Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Kuulasmaa, Kari

    2010-01-01

    Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe....

  8. Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  9. A study of the HIV/AIDS-related conditions and risk behaviors of sex

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-09-11

    Sep 11, 2016 ... reported problems, knowledge, attitudes, behaviors, self-efficacy, and barriers regarding HIV, ..... measured using the Risk Behaviors Assessment Questionnaire ... hitting or harming one another in their family while growing.

  10. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): High School - Excluding Sexual Identity

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. High School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  11. The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

  12. Estimating radiation-induced cancer risk using MVK two-stage model for carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Aoki, Y.

    1993-01-01

    Based on the carcinogenesis model as proposed by Moolgavkar et al., time-dependent relative risk models were derived for projecting the time variation in excess relative risk. If it is assumed that each process is described by time-independent linear dose-response relationship, the time variation in excess relative risk is influenced by the parameter related with the promotion process. The risk model based carcinogenesis theory would play a marked role in estimating radiation-induced cancer risk in constructing a projection model or transfer model

  13. Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

    2018-03-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

  14. Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

    1996-01-01

    For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

  15. Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

    2013-02-01

    Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

    2016-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

  18. Risk perception, self-efficacy, trust for physician, depression, and behavior modification in diabetic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Hissei; Furukawa, Toshiaki A; Hayashi, Shin-U; Goto, Atsushi; Izumi, Kazuo; Hayashino, Yasuaki; Noda, Mitsuhiko

    2018-03-01

    We evaluated the associations of risk perception, self-efficacy, and trust with two health promotion behaviors (food habits and exercise) and depressive mood. Diabetic patients aged between 40 and 64 ( n = 1195) were included in the analyses. Risk perception worsened behavioral changes in terms of food habits and depression, whereas self-efficacy and trust improved food habits, exercise, and depression; trust improved exercise and depression. In conclusion, self-efficacy and trust appear to be more beneficial than risk perception for positive behavioral changes and for improving depression in diabetic patients. However, their influence on behavioral changes may be different according to the types of behaviors.

  19. Sedentary behavior and prostate cancer risk in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Brigid M; Friedenreich, Christine M; Kopciuk, Karen A; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Moore, Steven C; Matthews, Charles E

    2014-05-01

    Sedentary behavior (sitting time) has been proposed as an independent risk factor for some cancers; however, its role in the development of prostate cancer has not been determined. We examined the prospective associations of self-reported daily sitting time and daily television/video viewing time with the risk of developing or dying from prostate cancer among 170,481 men in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. We estimated HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards regression. Between 1996 and 2006, there were 13,751 incident (including 1,365 advanced) prostate cancer cases identified; prostate cancer mortality (through 2008) was 669. No strong or significant association with prostate cancer risk was seen in fully adjusted models for either daily sitting or television/video time. There were some suggestions of effect modification by body mass index (BMI; interaction for television/video time and BMI, P = 0.02). For total prostate cancer risk, television/video time was associated with a slightly elevated, but nonsignificant, increase amongst obese men (HR = 1.28; 95% CI, 0.98-1.69); a null association was observed amongst overweight men (HR = 1.04; 0.89-1.22); and, for men with a normal BMI, television/video time was associated with a nonsignificant risk decrease (HR = 0.82; 95% CI, 0.66-1.01). Similar patterns were observed for total daily sitting and television/video time in advanced prostate cancer and prostate cancer mortality. Sedentary behavior seems to play a limited role in the development of prostate cancer; however, we cannot rule out potential effect modification by BMI or the impact of measurement error on results. ©2014 AACR.

  20. HIV seroprevalence and high-risk sexual behavior among female sex workers in Central Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Fernanda R P; Mousquer, Gina J; Castro, Lisie S; Puga, Marco A; Tanaka, Tayana S O; Rezende, Grazielli R; Pinto, Clarice S; Bandeira, Larissa M; Martins, Regina M B; Francisco, Roberta B L; Teles, Sheila A; Motta-Castro, Ana R C

    2014-01-01

    Female sex workers (FSWs) are considered a high-risk group for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection due to their social vulnerability and factors associated with their work. We estimated the prevalence of HIV, and identified viral subtypes and risk factors among FSWs. A cross-sectional study using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) method was conducted among 402 FSWs in Campo Grande city, Brazil, from 2009 to 2011. Participants were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire about sociodemograpic characteristics and risk behavior. Blood samples were collected for serological testing of HIV. Of the 402 FSWs, median age and age of initiating sex work were 25 years (Interquartile range [IQR]: 9) and 20 years (IQR: 6), respectively. The majority reported use of alcohol (88.5%), had 5-9 years (median: 9; IQR: 3) of schooling (54.5%), 68.6% had tattoos/body piercings, and 45.1% had more than seven clients per week (median: 7; IQR: 10). Only 32.9% of FSW reported using a condom with nonpaying partners in the last sexual contact. Prevalence of HIV infection was 1.0% (95% CI: 0.1-2.6%). Genotyping for HIV-1 performed on three samples detected subtypes B, C, and F1. Sex work in the Midwestern region of Brazil is characterized by reduced education, large numbers of clients per week, and inconsistent condom use, mainly with nonpaying partners. Although prevalence of HIV infection is currently low, elevated levels of high-risk sexual behavior confirm a need to implement prevention measures. Specific interventions targeting FSWs must emphasize the risk associated with both clients and nonpaying partners while providing knowledge about HIV prevention.

  1. A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

    2018-01-01

    Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The use of chemical and radionuclide risk estimates in site performance evaluation of mixed waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1988-01-01

    Many radioactive waste sites contain not only radioactive material but also varying amounts of chemical waste. The use of such procedures implies some risk at any exposure level, and thus requires that an exposure level be determined that corresponds to an acceptable risk to an individual or a population. Although the uncertainties and limitations of these methods are of concern, the assumption has been generally adopted that the human dose response for all carcinogens is linear, with no threshold occurring at low levels of exposure. With the move toward decontamination programs and clean-up of various mixed waste sites throughout the US, there is interest in the possibility that risk estimates calculated individually for radionuclides and for chemicals may be combined to reflect the total risk for each site. The purpose of this paper is to examine the feasibility of combining risk estimates during risk/benefit analyses. For a variety of reasons, the state of radiation risk assessment is more advanced than that of chemical risk assessment. The reasons for this disparity are summarized in this paper. Quantitative radiation risk assessment is currently being performed, but involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment in general does not allow quantitative results bracketed by uncertainty analysis. Therefore, it is concluded that it is currently not possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for a mixed waste site, but that it may be possible to develop such a capability in the future

  3. Method of risk estimates for genetic, leukemogenic and carcinogenic effects from medical and occupational exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-12-01

    For the risk estimate of fatal malignancies, an effective dose was proposed on the basis of the assumption that the risk should be equal whether the whole body irradiated uniformly or whether there is non-uniform irradiation. The effective dose was defined by the product of organ or tissue doses and a weighting factor representing the proportion of risk factor for a fatal malignancy resulting from organ or tissue irradiation to the total malignant factor. The risk of malignancies can be derived by multiplying the malignant significant factor by the product of the risk factor and the effective dose. For the genetic risk, a significant factor was a relative child expectancy and organ or tissue doses were gonad doses. And, for the leukemogenic risk, a significant factor was the leukemia significant factor and organ or tissue dose was mean bone marrow dose. The present method makes it easy to estimate the risk for individuals and population from medical and occupational exposures. The variation with age and sex of risk rates for stochastic effects was discussed, and the present data on risk rates were compared with the variation of risk rates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

  4. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  5. Risk Factors Influencing Smoking Behavior: A Turkish Twin Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öncel, Sevgi Yurt; Dick, Danielle M.; Maes, Hermine H.; Alıev, Fazil

    2015-01-01

    Aim In this study, we introduce the first twin study in Turkey, focusing on smoking behavior, and laying the foundation to register all twins born in Turkey for research purposes. Using Turkish twins will contribute to our understanding of health problems in the context of cultural differences. Materials and methods We assessed 309 twin pairs (339 males and 279 females) aged between 15 and 45 years living in the Kırıkkale and Ankara regions of Turkey, and administered a health and lifestyle interview that included questions about smoking status and smoking history. We analyzed the data using descriptive statistics, t-tests, chi-square tests, and bivariate and multivariate clustered logistic regression. In addition, we fit bivariate Structural Equation Models (SEM) to determine contributions of latent genetic and environmental factors to smoking outcomes in this sample. Results One hundred seventy-eight participants (28.8%) were identified as smokers, smoking every day for a month or longer, of whom 79.2% were males and 20.8% were females. Mean values for number of cigarettes per day and the Fagerstrom Test of Nicotine Dependence (FTND; Fagerstrom, 1978) score were higher in males than in females, and age of onset was earlier in males. There was a significant positive correlation between the FTND score and number of cigarettes smoked per day, and a significant negative correlation between both variables and age at onset of smoking. Our study showed that gender, presence of a smoking twin in the family, age, alcohol use, marital status, daily sports activities, and feeling moody all played a significant role in smoking behavior among twins. The twin analysis suggested that 79.5% of the liability to FTND was influenced by genetic factors and 20.5% by unique environment, while familial resemblance for smoking initiation was best explained by common environmental factors. Conclusions Marked differences in the prevalence of smoking behavior in men versus women were

  6. The impact of advances in human molecular biology on radiation genetic risk estimation in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankaranarayanan, K.

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the conceptual framework, the data base, methods and assumptions used thus far to assess the genetic risks of exposure of human populations to ionising radiation. These are then re-examined in the contemporary context of the rapidly expanding knowledge of the molecular biology of human mendelian diseases. This re-examination reveals that (i) many of the assumptions used thus far in radiation genetic risk estimation may not be fully valid and (ii) the current genetic risk estimates are probably conservative, but provide an adequate margin of safety for radiological protection. The view is expressed that further advances in the field of genetic risk estimation will be largely driven by advances in the molecular biology of human genetic diseases. (author). 37 refs., 5 tabs

  7. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

  8. Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haenninen, Otto; Brueske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles ( -1 ; particle number 1.1-3.1 x 10 9 d -1 ) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 x 10 -6 , but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

  9. Discrete features of sedentary behavior impact cardiometabolic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyden, Kate; Keadle, Sarah Kozey; Staudenmayer, John; Braun, Barry; Freedson, Patty S

    2015-05-01

    Sedentary behavior is linked to numerous poor health outcomes. This study aims to determine the effects of 7 d of increased sitting on markers of cardiometabolic risk among free-living individuals. Ten recreationally active participants (>150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week; mean ± SD age, 25.2 ± 5.7 yr; mean ± SD body mass index, 24.9 ± 4.3 kg·m(-2)) completed a 7-d baseline period and a 7-d sedentary condition in their free-living environment. At baseline, participants maintained normal activity. After baseline, participants completed a 7-d sedentary condition. Participants were instructed to sit as much as possible, to limit standing and walking, and to refrain from structured exercise and leisure time physical activity. ActivPAL monitor was used to assess sedentary behavior and physical activity. Fasting lipids, glucose, and insulin were measured, and oral glucose tolerance test was performed after baseline and sedentary condition. In comparison to baseline, total sedentary time (mean Δ, 14.9%; 95% CI, 10.2-19.6) and time in prolonged/uninterrupted sedentary bouts significantly increased, whereas the rate of breaks from sedentary time was significantly reduced (mean Δ, 21.4%; 95% CI, 6.9-35.9). For oral glucose tolerance test, 2-h plasma insulin (mean Δ, 38.8 μU·mL(-1); 95% CI, 10.9-66.8) and area under the insulin curve (mean Δ, 3074.1 μU·mL(-1) per 120 min; 95% CI, 526.0-5622.3) were significantly elevated after the sedentary condition. Lipid concentrations did not change. Change in 2-h insulin was negatively associated with change in light-intensity activity (r = -0.62) and positively associated with change in time in sitting bouts longer than 30 min (r = 0.82) and 60 min (r = 0.83). Increased free-living sitting negatively impacts markers of cardiometabolic health, and specific features of sedentary behavior (e.g., time in prolonged sitting bouts) may be particularly important.

  10. The Relationship between Self-Reported Executive Functioning and Risk-Taking Behavior in Urban Homeless Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piche, Joshua; Kaylegian, Jaeson; Smith, Dale; Hunter, Scott J

    2018-01-03

    Introduction: Almost 2 million U.S. youth are estimated to live on the streets, in shelters, or in other types of temporary housing at some point each year. Both their age and living situations make them more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, particularly during adolescence, a time of increased risk taking. Much of self-control appears related to the development of the prefrontal cortex, which is at a particularly crucial period of elaboration and refinement during adolescence and emerging adulthood. Executive processes like decision-making, inhibition, planning, and reasoning may be vulnerable to adversity experienced as a result of homelessness and related impoverishment during childhood and adolescence. No study to date, to our knowledge, has directly investigated differences in risk-taking by homeless youth as it relates to their developing executive control. Objective: Examine the relationship between the level of self-reported executive function (EF) and engagement in risk taking behaviors among a sample of shelter-living urban homeless youth. We predicted that homeless youth who have lower levels of self-reported EF would more readily engage in risky behaviors that could lead to negative outcomes. Participants: One hundred and forty-nine youths between 18 and 22 years of age were recruited from homeless agencies in Chicago. Of this study sample, 53% were female and 76% African American. Measures: All participants completed, as part of a broader neuropsychological assessment, the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning-Adult Version (BRIEF-A), the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). Analyses: Groups were separated based on level of self-reported EF, with two groups identified: High self-reported EF fell >1 SD above the normative average, and low self-reported EF fell >1 SD below the normative average. All analyses utilized Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests. Results and

  11. Effects of risk estimation tendency on risk perception at the Tohoku Disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Yuri; Tsuchida, Shoji; Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Shiotani, Takamasa

    2012-01-01

    The Tohoku Disaster showed the underlying risks of earthquake, tsunami, nuclear power plant accidents and debris removal. The ability to understand the risk and act appropriately has been widely discussed among the professionals as well within the community. In Oct 2011, an Online survey. Using the correspondence analysis approach, the data collected the free-answer question 'What do you remember most regarding news on the Tohoku Disaster' was analyzed. The relationship between the cognitive trade-off factors, zero-risk factors and elaboration tendency factors, and risk perception among the people following the Tohoku Disaster were discussed. (author)

  12. High-Risk Sexual Behavior at Social Venues in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    KHAN, MARIA R.; RASOLOFOMANANA, JUSTIN R.; McCLAMROCH, KRISTI J.; RALISIMALALA, ANDRIAMAMPIANINA; ZAFIMANJAKA, MAURICE G.; BEHETS, FRIEDA; WEIR, SHARON S.

    2018-01-01

    Background Persistent high levels of sexually transmitted infection (STI) in Madagascar indicate current prevention strategies are inadequate. STI/HIV prevention based in social venues may play an important role in reaching individuals at risk of infection. We identified venues where people meet sexual partners and measured the need and potential for venue-based prevention. Methods Interviews were conducted in 7 Madagascar towns with 1) community informants to identify social venues, 2) individuals socializing at a sample of venues to assess sexual behavior among venue patrons, and 3) venue representatives to assess the potential for venue-based intervention. Results Community informants identified numerous venues (range: 67–211 venues, depending on the town); streets, bars, and hotels were most commonly reported. Among 2982 individuals socializing at venues, 78% of men and 74% of women reported new sexual partnership or sex trade for money, goods, or services in the past 4 weeks and 19% of men and 18% of women reported symptoms suggestive of STI in the past 4 weeks. STI symptom levels were disproportionately high among respondents reporting either sex trade or new sexual partnership in the past 4 weeks. Twenty-eight percent of men and 41% of women reported condom use during the last sex act with a new partner. Although 24% to 45% of venues had hosted STI/HIV interventions, interventions were deemed possible at 73% to 90% venues according to 644 interviews with venue representatives. Conclusions Venue-based intervention is possible and would reach a spectrum of populations vulnerable to STI/HIV including sex workers, their clients, and other high-risk populations. PMID:18496471

  13. Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

    2017-09-25

    Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed

  14. Sexual Health Risk Behavior Disparities Among Male and Female Adolescents Using Identity and Behavior Indicators of Sexual Orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul Poteat, V; Russell, Stephen T; Dewaele, Alexis

    2017-12-04

    Sexual minority adolescent sexual risk behavior studies often overlook young women, do not consider behavior- and identity-based sexual orientation indicators in combination, and focus mainly on condomless sex. We examined multiple risk behaviors in a large sample of adolescent young men and women using combined behavior- and identity-based indices. The 2015 Dane County Youth Assessment data included 4734 students in 22 high schools who had ever voluntarily engaged in sexual contact (51.7% male; 76.0% White, non-Hispanic). Items assessed having sex with unfamiliar partners, sex while using substances, using protection, and STI testing. Logistic regressions tested for disparities based on combined identity- and behavior-based sexual orientation indicators. For both young men and women, youth who reported heterosexual or questioning identities-but who had sex with same-sex partners-were at consistently greater risk than heterosexual youth with only different-sex partners. Also, for both young men and women, bisexuals with partners of both sexes more consistently reported higher risk than heterosexual youth than did bisexuals with only different-sex partners. Risk behavior for gay young men who had sex only with men mirrored those in extant literature. Risk levels differed for specific groups of sexual minority young women, thus deserving further attention. Findings underscore the need for sexual health research to consider sexual orientation in a more multidimensional manner.

  15. School Bullying, Cyberbullying, or both: Correlates of Teen Suicidality in the 2011 CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Messias, Erick; Kindrick, Kristi; Castro, Juan

    2014-01-01

    While school bullying has been shown to be associated with depression and suicidality among teens, the relationship between these outcomes and cyberbullying has not been studied in nationally representative samples. Data came from the 2011 CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), a nationally representative sample of high-school students (N=15,425). We calculated weighted estimates representative of all students in grades 9-12 attending school in the US. Logistic regression was used to calculat...

  16. Gender Disparity in Structured Physical Activity and Overall Activity Level in Adolescence: Evaluation of Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Data

    OpenAIRE

    Lenhart, Clare M.; Hanlon, Alexandra; Kang, Youjeong; Daly, Brian P.; Brown, Michael D.; Patterson, Freda

    2012-01-01

    Background. Adolescent girls are less likely to meet physical activity recommendations than boys. This study examined the relative contribution of structured physical activity opportunities including physical education (PE) class and sports teams to overall activity levels for girls and boys. Methods. Data from 591 9th–12th grade students who completed the 2009 Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey were examined. Logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between PE and sport...

  17. Predicting Academics via Behavior within an Elementary Sample: An Evaluation of the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilgus, Stephen P.; Bowman, Nicollette A.; Christ, Theodore J.; Taylor, Crystal N.

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the extent to which teacher ratings of student behavior via the "Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener" (SAEBRS) predicted academic achievement in math and reading. A secondary purpose was to compare the predictive capacity of three SAEBRS subscales corresponding to social, academic, or emotional…

  18. Sexual behavior, risk perception, and HIV transmission can respond to HIV antiviral drugs and vaccines through multiple pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Stephen; Cojocaru, Monica; Bauch, Chris T.

    2015-01-01

    There has been growing use of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) for HIV and significant progress in developing prophylactic HIV vaccines. The simplest theories of counterproductive behavioral responses to such interventions tend to focus on single feedback mechanisms: for instance, HAART optimism makes infection less scary and thus promotes risky sexual behavior. Here, we develop an agent based, age-structured model of HIV transmission, risk perception, and partner selection in a core group to explore behavioral responses to interventions. We find that interventions can activate not one, but several feedback mechanisms that could potentially influence decision-making and HIV prevalence. In the model, HAART increases the attractiveness of unprotected sex, but it also increases perceived risk of infection and, on longer timescales, causes demographic impacts that partially counteract HAART optimism. Both HAART and vaccination usually lead to lower rates of unprotected sex on the whole, but intervention effectiveness depends strongly on whether individuals over- or under-estimate intervention coverage. Age-specific effects cause sexual behavior and HIV prevalence to change in opposite ways in old and young age groups. For complex infections like HIV—where interventions influence transmission, demography, sexual behavior and risk perception—we conclude that evaluations of behavioral responses should consider multiple feedback mechanisms. PMID:26507957

  19. Estimates of fruit and vegetable intake in childhood and adult dietary behaviors of African American women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haire-Joshu, Debra; Kreuter, Matthew K; Holt, Cheryl; Steger-May, Karen

    2004-01-01

    This exploratory study examined how estimates of one's fruit and vegetable intake in childhood are related to 3 current dietary behaviors among African American women: intake of fruits and vegetables, exposure to and preference for fruits and vegetables, and preference for trying new foods. Baseline data from a randomized dietary intervention trial. Ten urban public health centers in St. Louis, Missouri. 1227 African American women. A 33-item fruit and vegetable food frequency questionnaire, items measuring estimates of childhood fruit and vegetable intake, adult fruit and vegetable intake, exposure to and preference for fruit and vegetable, and preference for trying new foods. Linear regression evaluated the association between predictors and continuous measures; logistic regression determined the association between predictors and categorical measures. Estimates of one's vegetable intake as a child were significantly related to exposure and preference for both fruits and vegetables, trying of new foods, and intake of both fruits and vegetables in adulthood. Estimates of eating fruit as a child were not significantly associated with these adult dietary behaviors. Developmental influences on adult dietary patterns may be stronger for vegetables than fruits among African American women. Additional emphasis is needed regarding exposure to and preference for vegetable intake in childhood.

  20. Influence of Social Stress on Risk-Taking Behavior in Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Reynolds, Elizabeth K.; Schreiber, Whitney M.; Geisel, Kathy; MacPherson, Laura; Ernst, Monique; Lejuez, C. W.

    2013-01-01

    Risk-taking behavior involves making choices with uncertain positive or negative outcomes. Evidence suggests that risk-taking behavior is influenced by emotional state. One such emotional experience is social anxiety, which has been related to both risk-avoidant and risk-seeking decision making. The present study examined a community sample of 34 adolescents grouped into low (Low SA Group) and high (High SA Group) social anxiety (SA). Both groups were compared on changes in performance on a r...