Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kin Keung Lai

2012-04-01

Full Text Available In the increasingly globalized economy these days, the major crude oil markets worldwide are seeing higher level of integration, which results in higher level of dependency and transmission of risks among different markets. Thus the risk of the typical multi-asset crude oil portfolio is influenced by dynamic correlation among different assets, which has both normal and transient behaviors. This paper proposes a novel multivariate wavelet denoising based approach for estimating Portfolio Value at Risk (PVaR. The multivariate wavelet analysis is introduced to analyze the multi-scale behaviors of the correlation among different markets and the portfolio volatility behavior in the higher dimensional time scale domain. The heterogeneous data and noise behavior are addressed in the proposed multi-scale denoising based PVaR estimation algorithm, which also incorporatesthe mainstream time series to address other well known data features such as autocorrelation and volatility clustering. Empirical studies suggest that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark ExponentialWeighted Moving Average (EWMA and DCC-GARCH model, in terms of conventional performance evaluation criteria for the model reliability.

The Meth Project and Teen Meth Use: New Estimates from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D Mark; Elsea, David

2015-12-01

In this note, we use data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveys for the period 1999 through 2011 to estimate the relationship between the Meth Project, an anti-methamphetamine advertising campaign, and meth use among high school students. During this period, a total of eight states adopted anti-meth advertising campaigns. After accounting for pre-existing downward trends in meth use, we find little evidence that the campaign curbed meth use in the full sample. We do find, however, some evidence that the Meth Project may have decreased meth use among White high school students. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coexistence of risk behaviors for being overweight among Brazilian adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Nathália Luíza; Claro, Rafael Moreira; Mingoti, Sueli Aparecida; Lopes, Aline Cristine Souza

2017-07-01

This study aimed to evaluate the magnitude of and the factors associated with the coexistence of risk behaviors for being overweight among Brazilian adolescents. This is a cross-sectional study with a representative sample of adolescents (mostly aged 13-15years) enrolled from public and private schools of Brazil in 2012. The co-occurring sedentary behavior and inadequate food consumption (regular intake of sugary and fried foods, and irregular consumption of fruits and vegetables-FV) was estimated using a Venn diagram. Sociodemographic, familial, and behavioral factors associated with the number of risk behaviors for being overweight were identified using an ordinal logistic regression analysis. Sedentary behavior was observed in 62.0% of adolescents. Regular intake of sugary or fried food was observed in 55.3% and 23.5% of adolescents, respectively, with 51.9% having an inadequate intake of FV. At least one risk behavior was reported in >90.0% of adolescents; 6.1% reported all 4. Being female, having a higher maternal education level, attending private school, not having breakfast or meals with parents regularly, eat watching television, and not practicing weekly leisure time physical activity were associated with an increased chance of having multiple risk behaviors. This study observed a high prevalence of coexisting of risk behaviors, which was associated with sociodemographic, familial, and behavioral factors. These findings may contribute to a clearer understanding of the associations between different behaviors among adolescents, and may be used to improve public health surveillance and to develop strategies that address multiple behaviors, in order to prevent overweight among adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychological methods of subjective risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zimolong, B.

1980-01-01

Reactions to situations involving risks can be divided into the following parts/ perception of danger, subjective estimates of the risk and risk taking with respect to action. Several investigations have compared subjective estimates of the risk with an objective measure of that risk. In general there was a mis-match between subjective and objective measures of risk, especially, objective risk involved in routine activities is most commonly underestimated. This implies, for accident prevention, that attempts must be made to induce accurate subjective risk estimates by technical and behavioural measures. (orig.) [de

Risky music-listening behaviors and associated health-risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Ineke; van de Looij-Jansen, Petra M; Mieloo, Cathelijne L; Burdorf, Alex; de Waart, Frouwkje

2012-06-01

To examine, among adolescents and emerging adults attending inner-city lower education, associations between risky music-listening behaviors (from MP3 players and in discotheques and at pop concerts) and more traditional health-risk behaviors: substance use (cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, and hard drugs) and unsafe sexual intercourse. A total of 944 students in Dutch inner-city senior-secondary vocational schools completed questionnaires about their music-listening and traditional health-risk behaviors. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to examine associations between music-listening and traditional health-risk behaviors. Risky MP3-player listeners used cannabis more often during the past 4 weeks. Students exposed to risky sound levels during discotheque and pop concert attendance used cannabis less often during the past 4 weeks, were more often binge drinkers, and reported inconsistent condom use during sexual intercourse. The coexistence of risky music-listening behaviors with other health-risk behaviors provides evidence in support of the integration of risky music-listening behaviors within research on and programs aimed at reducing more traditional health-risk behaviors, such as substance abuse and unsafe sexual intercourse.

Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Pakistan

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Badar Nadeem Ashraf

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, risk-based capital requirements have been reinforced in the new Basel III Accord to counter excessive bank risk-taking behavior. However, prior theoretical as well as empirical literature that studies the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior is inconclusive. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of risk-based capital requirements on bank risk-taking behavior, using a panel dataset of 21 listed commercial banks of Pakistan over the period 2005–2012. Purely regulatory measures of bank capital, capital adequacy ratio, and bank assets portfolio risk, risk-weighted assets to total assets ratio, are used for the main analysis. Recently developed small N panel methods (bias corrected least squares dummy variable (LSDVC method and system GMM method with instruments collapse option are used to control for panel fixed effects, dynamic dependent variables, and endogenous independent variables. Overall, the results suggest that commercial banks have reduced assets portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. Results also confirm that all banks having risk-based capital ratios either lower or higher than the regulatory required limits, have decreased portfolio risk in response to stringent risk-based capital requirements. The results are robust to alternative proxies of bank risk-taking, alternative estimation methods, and alternative samples.

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

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... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among youth and adults, including— Behaviors that contribute ...

Physical inactivity and sedentary behavior: Overlooked risk factors in autoimmune rheumatic diseases?

Science.gov (United States)

Pinto, Ana Jéssica; Roschel, Hamilton; de Sá Pinto, Ana Lúcia; Lima, Fernanda Rodrigues; Pereira, Rosa Maria Rodrigues; Silva, Clovis Artur; Bonfá, Eloisa; Gualano, Bruno

2017-07-01

This review aims to (1) summarize the estimates of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior in autoimmune rheumatic diseases; (2) describe the relationship between physical (in)activity levels and disease-related outcomes; (3) contextualize the estimates and impact of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior in autoimmune diseases compared to other rheumatic diseases and chronic conditions; and (4) discuss scientific perspectives around this theme and potential clinical interventions to attenuate these preventable risk factors. We compiled evidence to show that estimates of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior in autoimmune rheumatic diseases are generally comparable to other rheumatic diseases as well as to other chronic conditions (e.g., type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and obesity), in which a lack of physical activity and excess of sedentary behavior are well-known predictors of morbimortality. In addition, we also showed evidence that both physical inactivity and sedentary behavior may be associated with poor health-related outcomes (e.g., worse disease symptoms and low functionality) in autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Thus, putting into practice interventions to make the patients "sit less and move more", particularly light-intensity activities and/or breaking-up sedentary time, is a simple and prudent therapeutic approach to minimize physical inactivity and sedentary behavior, which are overlooked yet modifiable risk factors in the field of autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health Risk Behavior in Foster Youth

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Gramkowski, Bridget; Kools, Susan; Paul, Steven; Boyer, Cherrie; Monasterio, Erica; Robbins, Nancy

2010-01-01

Problem Adolescent health problems are predominantly caused by risk behavior. Foster adolescents have disproportionately poor health; therefore identification of risk behavior is critical. Method A secondary analysis of data from a larger study investigated the health risk behavior of 56 foster youth using the CHIP-AE. Findings Foster youth had some increased risk behavior. Younger adolescents and those in kinship care had less risky behavior. Youth had more risk behavior when: in group homes, parental death, histories of physical or emotional abuse, or history of attempted suicide. Conclusions These results point to areas of strength and vulnerability in foster youth. PMID:19490278

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

Science.gov (United States)

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

following formal definition of risk is proposed: the probability of occurrence, in a given period of time, of an adverse health effect as a consequence of the existence of an hazard. In formula: R(d[symbol: see text]p) = Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) x Pr(d[symbol: see text]e). While Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) (exposure given hazard) must be evaluated in the situation under study, two alternatives exist for the estimation of the occurrence of adverse health effects (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)): a "direct" estimation of the damage (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) through formal epidemiologic studies conducted in the situation under observation; and an "indirect" estimation of Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) using information taken from the scientific literature (epidemiologic evaluations, dose-response relationships, extrapolations, ...). Both conditions are presented along with their respective advantages, disadvantages, and uncertainties. The usefulness of the proposed algorithm is discussed with respect to commonly used applications of risk assessment in occupational medicine; the relevance of time for risk estimation (both in the term of duration of observation, duration of exposure, and latency of effect) is briefly explained; and how the proposed algorithm takes into account (in terms of prevention and public health) both the etiologic relevance of the exposure and the consequences of exposure removal is highlighted. As a last comment, it is suggested that the diffuse application of good work practices (technical, behavioral, organizational, ...), or the exhaustive use of check lists, can be relevant in terms of improvement of prevention efficacy, but does not represent any quantitative procedure of risk assessment which, in any circumstance, must be considered the elective approach to adverse health effect prevention.

Risk-perception and dangerous driving among adolescents: Outcome- and behavior-focused questions yield opposite results.

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O'Brien, Fearghal; Gormley, Michael

2016-10-01

While some studies have found that those who perceive a behavior to be more risky are less likely to engage in it, others have found that those who engage in more risky behaviors see themselves as being more at-risk. Using an online questionnaire we investigated whether such conflicting findings may be due to the types of risk-questions employed in past studies. We assessed risk-perception using outcome-focused questions (e.g. the likelihood of being in an accident) and a behavior-focused question (the riskiness of speeding). Participants who reported engaging in more risky driving gave higher estimates of their chances of experiencing a negative outcome. However, those same participants gave lower estimates of the general riskiness of risky driving. Drivers may think about the risks of risky driving in different ways depending on the focus of the questions. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Negative Affect, Risk Perception, and Adolescent Risk Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Laura A.; Youngblade, Lise M.

2006-01-01

The prevalence, etiology, and consequences of adolescent risk behavior have stimulated much research. The current study examined relationships among anger and depressive symptomatology (DS), risk perception, self-restraint, and adolescent risk behavior. Telephone surveys were conducted with 290 14- to 20-year-olds (173 females; M = 15.98 years).…

Obesity-related behaviors among poor adolescents and young adults: Is social position associated with risk behaviors?

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Miranda Lucia Ritterman Weintraub

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This cross-sectional study examines multiple dimensions of social position in relation to obesity-related behaviors in an adolescent and young adult population. In addition to using conventional measures of social position, including parental education and household expenditures, we explore the usefulness of three youth-specific measures of social position—community and society subjective social status and school dropout status. Data is taken from a 2004 house-to-house survey of urban households within the bottom 20th percentile of income distribution within seven states in Mexico. A total of 5,321 Mexican adolescents, aged 12-22 years, provided information on obesity-related behaviors (e.g. diet, physical activity, sedentary behavior and indicators of subjective and objective social position. A parent in each household provided information on socioeconomic status of the parent and household. Ordinal logistic regressions are used to estimate the associations of parental, household and adolescent indicators of social position and obesity-related risk behaviors. Those adolescents with the highest odds of adopting obesity risk behaviors were the ones who perceived themselves as lower in social status in reference to their peer community and those who had dropped out of school. We found no significant associations between parental education or household expenditures and obesity-related risk behaviors. Immediate social factors in adolescents' lives may have a strong influence on their health-related behaviors. This study provides evidence for the usefulness of two particular measures, both of which are youth-specific. Adolescents and young adults who have dropped out of school and those with lower perceived relative social position within their community are more likely to be at-risk for obesity-related behaviors than those with higher relative social position. We conclude that youth-specific measures may be important in identifying the most at-risk

Differential Effects for Sexual Risk Behavior: An Application of Finite Mixture Regression

OpenAIRE

Lanza, Stephanie T.; Kugler, Kari C.; Mathur, Charu

2011-01-01

Understanding the multiple factors that place individuals at risk for sexual risk behavior is critical for developing effective intervention programs. Regression-based methods are commonly used to estimate the average effects of risk factors, however such results can be difficult to translate to prevention implications at the individual level. Although differential effects can be examined to some extent by including interaction terms, as risk factors and moderators are added to the model inte...

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Behavior and Personal Resiliency in Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Prince-Embury, Sandra

2015-01-01

This study explores the relationship between self-reported risk behaviors and personal resiliency in adolescents; specifically whether youth with higher personal resiliency report less frequent risk behaviors than those with lower personal resiliency. Self-reported risk behavior is surveyed by the "Adolescent Risk Behavior Inventory"…

Concurrent multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents in Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR

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Thomsen Sarah

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple health risk behaviors (HRBs among adolescents pose a threat to their health, including HIV/AIDS. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol use, smoking, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors among youth have been shown to co-occur with each others. The objectives of this study was to estimate the prevalence of single and concurrent health risk behaviors and to explore how health risk behavior is associated with socio-demographic factors and peers' behaviors. Methods A cross sectional design was used to examine health risk behaviors of adolescents between the age 14 and 19 years living in the Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR. The study was conducted between June and August, 2008. An ordinal logistic regression model that simultaneously explored demographic factors and the influence of the behavior of peers on three categories of multiple HRBs (no risk, one risk, and two or more health risk behaviors was performed. Results A total of 1360 respondents, 669 (49.1% boys with mean age 16.7 ± 1.6 and 699 (50.9% girls aged 16.1 ± 1.5 were recruited into the study. The majority reported two or fewer risk behaviors. However, multiple risk behaviors increased with age for both sexes. About 46.8% (n = 637 reported no risk, 39.3 percent (n = 535 reported one risk, 8.1 percent (n = 110 reported two risks, and 5.8 percent reported more than two health risk behaviors. The protective factors among boys were school attendance (OR = .53, CI = .33-.86, being Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = .48, CI-.26-.90, while being above the age of 15 (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.33-3.60, Akha ethnicity (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.04-4.61, peer's smoking (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6, and peer's drinking alcohol (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.1-3.21 were significantly associated with the presence of multiple risk behaviors among boys. Having some education (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.06-0.45, and being of Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.80 were factors that

Adverse childhood experiences, gender, and HIV risk behaviors: Results from a population-based sample

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Lin Fang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Recent HIV research suggested assessing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs as contributing factors of HIV risk behaviors. However, studies often focused on a single type of adverse experience and very few utilized population-based data. This population study examined the associations between ACE (individual and cumulative ACE score and HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS from 5 states. The sample consisted of 39,434 adults. Eight types of ACEs that included different types of child abuse and household dysfunctions before the age of 18 were measured. A cumulative score of ACEs was also computed. Logistic regression estimated of the association between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors using odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs for males and females separately. We found that ACEs were positively associated with HIV risk behaviors overall, but the associations differed between males and females in a few instances. While the cumulative ACE score was associated with HIV risk behaviors in a stepwise manner, the pattern varied by gender. For males, the odds of HIV risk increased at a significant level as long as they experienced one ACE, whereas for females, the odds did not increase until they experienced three or more ACEs. Future research should further investigate the gender-specific associations between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors. As childhood adversities are prevalent among general population, and such experiences are associated with increased risk behaviors for HIV transmission, service providers can benefit from the principles of trauma-informed practice.

Quantifying IT estimation risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

2009-01-01

A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

Radiation in space: risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fry, R.J.M.

2002-01-01

The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial population. In deep space the duration of the mission, position of the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainties in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons; (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts; and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. (author)

The dynamics of injection drug users' personal networks and HIV risk behaviors.

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Costenbader, Elizabeth C; Astone, Nan M; Latkin, Carl A

2006-07-01

While studies of the social networks of injection drug users (IDUs) have provided insight into how the structures of interpersonal relationships among IDUs affect HIV risk behaviors, the majority of these studies have been cross-sectional. The present study examined the dynamics of IDUs' social networks and HIV risk behaviors over time. Using data from a longitudinal HIV-intervention study conducted in Baltimore, MD, this study assessed changes in the composition of the personal networks of 409 IDUs. We used a multi-nomial logistic regression analysis to assess the association between changes in network composition and simultaneous changes in levels of injection HIV risk behaviors. Using the regression parameters generated by the multi-nomial model, we estimated the predicted probability of being in each of four HIV risk behavior change groups. Compared to the base case, individuals who reported an entirely new set of drug-using network contacts at follow-up were more than three times as likely to be in the increasing risk group. In contrast, reporting all new non-drug-using contacts at follow-up increased the likelihood of being in the stable low-risk group by almost 50% and decreased the probability of being in the consistently high-risk group by more than 70%. The findings from this study show that, over and above IDUs' baseline characteristics, changes in their personal networks are associated with changes in individuals' risky injection behaviors. They also suggest that interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk among IDUs might benefit from increasing IDUs' social contacts with individuals who are not drug users.

Sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors of tobacco, alcohol, sexual behaviors, and diet and physical activity: pooled Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

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Rosario, Margaret; Corliss, Heather L; Everett, Bethany G; Reisner, Sari L; Austin, S Bryn; Buchting, Francisco O; Birkett, Michelle

2014-02-01

We examined sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors among adolescents. We pooled data from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. We classified youths with any same-sex orientation as sexual minority and the remainder as heterosexual. We compared the groups on risk behaviors and stratified by gender, age ( 14 years), and race/ethnicity. Sexual minorities (7.6% of the sample) reported more risk behaviors than heterosexuals for all 12 behaviors (mean = 5.3 vs 3.8; P sexual orientation disparities in analyses by gender, followed by age, and then race/ethnicity; they persisted in analyses by gender, age, and race/ethnicity, although findings were nuanced. Data on cancer risk, morbidity, and mortality by sexual orientation are needed to track the potential but unknown burden of cancer among sexual minorities.

Do schools influence student risk-taking behaviors and emotional health symptoms?

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Denny, Simon J; Robinson, Elizabeth M; Utter, Jennifer; Fleming, Theresa M; Grant, Sue; Milfont, Taciano L; Crengle, Sue; Ameratunga, Shanthi N; Clark, Terryann

2011-03-01

Many schools engage in health promotion, health interventions, and services aimed at improving the health and well-being outcomes for students. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of schools on student health risk-taking behaviors and depressive symptoms. A nationally representative sample (n = 9,056) of students from 96 secondary schools completed a health and well-being survey using Internet Tablets that included questions on school climate, health risk-taking behaviors, and mental health. Teachers (n = 2,901) and school administrators (n = 91) completed questionnaires on aspects of the school climate which included teacher well-being and burnout, the staff work environment, health and welfare services for students, and school organizational support for student health and well-being. Multilevel models were used to estimate school effects on the health risk-taking behaviors and depression symptoms among students. Schools where students reported a more positive school climate had fewer students with alcohol use problems, and fewer students engaging in violence and risky motor vehicle behaviors. Schools where teachers reported better health and welfare services for students had fewer students engaging in unsafe sexual health behaviors. Schools where teachers reported higher levels of well-being had fewer students reporting significant levels of depressive symptoms. More positive school climates and better school health and welfare services are associated with fewer health risk-taking behaviors among students. However, the overall school effects were modest, especially for cigarette use and suicidal behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual Orientation and Behavior of Adult Jews in Israel and the Association With Risk Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Mor, Zohar; Davidovich, Udi

2016-08-01

Estimating the size of key risk groups susceptible to HIV/sexually transmitted diseases (STI) is necessary for establishment of interventions and budget allocation. This study aimed to identify various dimensions of sexual orientation and practices in Israel, and correlate the findings with sexual risk behavior (SRB). It used a random representative sample of the Jewish population aged 18-44 years who completed online questionnaires regarding their self-identified sexual orientation, attraction and practices, and SRB. Concordant heterosexuals were those who self-reported heterosexual identity, were attracted and had sex only with the opposite gender. National estimates regarding prevalence of gay, lesbian, and bisexual men and women were based on the civil census. The sample included 997 men and 1005 women, of whom 11.3 and 15.2 % were attracted to the same-gender, 10.2 and 8.7 % reported lifetime same-gender encounters, while 8.2 and 4.8 % self-identified as gay or bisexual men and lesbian or bisexual women, respectively. The estimated population of self-identified Jewish gay or bisexual men and lesbian or bisexual women aged 18-44 in Israel was 94,176, and 57,671, respectively. SRB was more common among self-identified gays or bisexual men and among discordant heterosexual men and women. Those who reported same-gender sexual practices reported greater SRB than those who only had opposite-gender encounters. Interestingly, SRB among discordant heterosexuals was associated with same-sex behavior rather than attraction. Health practitioners should increase their awareness of sexual diversity among their clientele, and should recognize that risk for HIV/STI may exist among self-identified heterosexuals, who may not disclose their actual sexual attraction or practices.

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

2018-04-01

Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

2012-07-01

Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

Science.gov (United States)

Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

2016-01-01

To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors 6 types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among...

Trade Openness and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence from Emerging Economies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Badar Nadeem Ashraf

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the impact of trade openness on bank risk-taking behavior. Using a panel dataset of 291 banks from 37 emerging countries over the period from 1998 to 2012, we find that higher trade openness decreases bank risk-taking. The results are robust when we use alternative bank risk-taking proxies and alternative estimation methods. We argue that trade openness provides diversification opportunities to banks in lending activities, which decrease overall bank risk. Further to this end, we observe that higher trade openness helps domestic banks to smooth out income volatility and decreases the impact of a financial crisis on banks.

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

Validity of Suicidality Items from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey in a High School Sample

Science.gov (United States)

May, Alexis; Klonsky, E. David

2011-01-01

The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) is used by the United States Centers for Disease Control to estimate rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors in adolescents. This study investigated the validity of the YRBS suicidality items by examining their relationship to criterion variables including loneliness, anxiety, depression, substance use, and…

Assessing university students' sexual risk behaviors as predictors of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohde, Rebecca L; Adjei Boakye, Eric; Christopher, Kara M; Geneus, Christian J; Walker, Ronald J; Varvares, Mark A; Osazuwa-Peters, Nosayaba

2018-05-09

There exists a significant gap in vaccine coverage of the human papillomavirus (HPV) among college-aged students. This study assessed sexual risk-taking behavior among university students and analyzed predictors of HPV vaccine initiation and completion in this population. Data (n = 746) were from an anonymous online, cross-sectional survey distributed to university students, between the ages of 19-26 years, at a private Midwestern university. Both chi-square and multivariable logistics regression models estimated the association between sociodemographic characteristics and sexual risk factors (including number of vaginal sexual partners, number of oral sexual partners, initiation of oral sex, and initiation of vaginal sex), with HPV vaccine initiation and completion. A significant number of participants (40%) had not received a single dose of the HPV vaccine series. Of those who initiated the series, more than half (51%) did not achieve completion. Additionally, a greater number of participants have had multiple (4 or more) oral sexual partners than vaginal sexual partners (25.7% vs. 20.3%). After adjusting for covariates, it was found that sexual risk factors were not significantly associated with HPV vaccine initiation or completion. HPV vaccine initiation and completion rates are suboptimal among university students. High levels of sexual-risk taking behaviors associated with HPV infection persist, yet are not significant predictors of HPV vaccine behaviors in this age group. To increase uptake among 18-26-year-old students, future public health interventions should focus on HPV vaccine education and uptake across the entire population, irrespective of sexual risk profile. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pediatric unintentional injury: behavioral risk factors and implications for prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwebel, David C; Gaines, Joanna

2007-06-01

Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death for children and adolescents between the ages of 1 and 18 in the United States, accounting for more deaths than the next 20 causes of mortality combined. It is estimated that pediatric injury accounts for more than $50 billion in annual losses from medical care costs, future wages, and quality of life. Despite these numbers, much remains to be learned about the behavioral risks for pediatric unintentional injury. This article reviews behavioral risk factors for pediatric unintentional injury risk, with a particular focus on four broad areas. First, we discuss the effects of demographic risk factors, including gender, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity. Second, we present information about child-specific risk factors, including temperament, personality, psychopathology, and cognitive development. Third, we discuss the influence of parents and other primary caregivers on childhood injury risk, with a particular focus on the effects of supervision and parenting quality and style. Finally, we discuss the role of peers on child injury risk. We conclude with a discussion of the ways in which the material reviewed has been translated into injury prevention techniques, with a focus on how pediatricians might use knowledge about etiological risk to prioritize safety counseling topics. We also present thoughts on four priorities for future research: injury risk in diverse nations and cultures; developmental effects of injury; the influence of multiple risk factors together on injury risk; and translation of knowledge about risk for injury into intervention and prevention techniques.

Disclosure of Personalized Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk Using Genetics, Biomarkers, and Lifestyle Factors to Motivate Health Behavior Improvements: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Yu, Zhi; Triedman, Nellie A; Prado, Maria G; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Mody, Elinor A; Helfgott, Simon M; Todd, Derrick J; Dellaripa, Paul F; Bermas, Bonnie L; Costenbader, Karen H; Deane, Kevin D; Lu, Bing; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

2017-10-12

To determine the effect of disclosure of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk personalized with genetics, biomarkers, and lifestyle factors on health behavior intentions. We performed a randomized controlled trial among first-degree relatives without RA. Subjects assigned to the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) group received the web-based PRE-RA tool for RA risk factor education and disclosure of personalized RA risk estimates, including genotype/autoantibody results and behaviors (n = 158). Subjects assigned to the comparison arm received standard RA education (n = 80). The primary outcome was readiness for change based on the trans-theoretical model, using validated contemplation ladder scales. Increased motivation to improve RA risk-related behaviors (smoking, diet, exercise, or dental hygiene) was defined as an increase in any ladder score compared to baseline, assessed immediately, 6 weeks, and 6 months post-intervention. Subjects reported behavior change at each visit. We performed intent-to-treat analyses using generalized estimating equations for the binary outcome. Subjects randomized to PRE-RA were more likely to increase ladder scores over post-intervention assessments (relative risk 1.23, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.01, 1.51) than those randomized to nonpersonalized education. At 6 months, 63.9% of PRE-RA subjects and 50.0% of comparison subjects increased motivation to improve behaviors (age-adjusted difference 15.8%; 95% CI 2.8%, 28.8%). Compared to nonpersonalized education, more PRE-RA subjects increased fish intake (45.0% versus 22.1%; P = 0.005), brushed more frequently (40.7% versus 22.9%; P = 0.01), flossed more frequently (55.7% versus 34.8%; P = 0.004), and quit smoking (62.5% versus 0.0% among 11 smokers; P = 0.18). Disclosure of RA risk personalized with genotype/biomarker results and behaviors increased motivation to improve RA risk-related behaviors. Personalized medicine approaches may motivate health

Developmental pathways from maltreatment to risk behavior: Sexual behavior as a catalyst.

Science.gov (United States)

Negriff, Sonya

2018-05-01

Although delinquency, substance use, and sexual activity are established to be highly intercorrelated, the extant research provides minimal evidence in support of one particular sequence of risk behavior or on the cascade effects from maltreatment. The present study tested a longitudinal model incorporating maltreatment, deviant peers, sexual behavior, delinquency, and substance use to elucidate the sequential pathway(s) from maltreatment to each specific risk behavior throughout adolescence. Data came from a longitudinal study on the effects of maltreatment on adolescent development (N = 454) with four study assessments from early (Time 1 M age = 10.98) to late adolescence (Time 4 M age = 18.22). Results from the cross-lagged model showed a sequence from maltreatment to sexual behavior (Time 1), to delinquency (Time 2), to sexual behavior (Time 3), to substance use and delinquency (Time 4). These findings support sexual behavior as the initial risk behavior that is the catalyst for engagement in more advanced risk behaviors across adolescence.

Behavioral control and reward sensitivity in adolescents’ risk taking behavior : A longitudinal TRAILS study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, M.; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior : A Longitudinal TRAILS Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this

Perceived risk and risk-taking behavior during the festival firework.

Science.gov (United States)

Saadat, Soheil; Naseripour, Masoud; Karbakhsh, Mojgan; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

2010-01-01

To investigate the relationship between perceived risk and risk-taking behaviors during the Iranian Last Wednesday Eve Fireworks (ILWEF). A random sample of 2475 Tehranian households were asked on perceived risk of injury, risk-taking behaviors, experience of injuries, and their perception of ability to manage the harmful events during the ILWEF. Lower perceived injury risk and higher perceived ability of managing an injured household member were associated with participation in fireworks practice and incidence of injury. These findings can be of practical importance to increase safety during festivals by improving risk perception in the community.

A Framework for Estimating Long Term Driver Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijay Gadepally

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We present a framework for estimation of long term driver behavior for autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. The Hybrid State System and Hidden Markov Model (HSS+HMM system discussed in this article is capable of describing the hybrid characteristics of driver and vehicle coupling. In our model, driving observations follow a continuous trajectory that can be measured to create continuous state estimates. These continuous state estimates can then be used to estimate the most likely driver state using decision-behavior coupling inherent to the HSS+HMM system. The HSS+HMM system is encompassed in a HSS structure and intersystem connectivity is determined by using signal processing and pattern recognition techniques. The proposed method is suitable for a number of autonomous and vehicle safety scenarios such as estimating intent of other vehicles near intersections or avoiding hazardous driving events such as unexpected lane changes. The long term driver behavior estimation system involves an extended HSS+HMM structure that is capable of including external information in the estimation process. Through the grafting and pruning of metastates, the HSS+HMM system can be dynamically updated to best represent driver choices given external information. Three application examples are also provided to elucidate the theoretical system.

Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

2018-04-01

The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlett, Christopher P

2015-06-01

The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

2018-05-16

Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Collective animal behavior from Bayesian estimation and probability matching.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfonso Pérez-Escudero

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is mainly based on empirical fits to observations, with less emphasis in obtaining first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching. In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability equal to the Bayesian-estimated probability that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior.

Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-09-01

Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

Science.gov (United States)

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-06-01

Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13-17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths' sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

Science.gov (United States)

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of risks from medical irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persson, B.R.R.

1983-01-01

This paper discuss various concepts of quantifying risks from medical irradiation. The expected individual risk from specific medical examination can be derived by estimation the dose-equivalent in different organs and tissues and apply the risk factors recommended for these tissues. A more practical way is to estimate or measure the energy imparted which has been found to correlate quite well with the total risk derived by summing up the risks for the involved tissues. The effective dose-equivalent concept can be used to derive the collective effective dose-equivalent in a population in order to compare the contribution from medical exposure with the contribution from other sources of irradiation in the society. In many countries it is thus shown that medical exposures gives the largest man-made contribution to the population dose

Physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns are associated with selected adolescent health risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Melissa C; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2006-04-01

Little is known about how physical activity (PA), sedentary behavior, and various adolescent health risk behaviors are associated. The objective of this study was to examine relationships between PA and sedentary behavior patterns and an array of risk behaviors, including leading causes of adolescent morbidity/mortality. Nationally representative self-reported data were collected (National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health; wave I: 1994-1995; II: 1996; N = 11957). Previously developed and validated cluster analyses identified 7 homogeneous groups of adolescents sharing PA and sedentary behaviors. Poisson regression predicted the relative risk of health risk behaviors, other weekly activities, and self-esteem across the 7 PA/sedentary behavior clusters controlling for demographics and socioeconomic status. Main outcome measures were adolescent risk behaviors (eg, truancy, cigarette smoking, sexual intercourse, delinquency), other weekly activities (eg, work, academic performance, sleep), self-esteem. Relative to high television (TV) and video viewers, adolescents in clusters characterized by skating and video gaming, high overall sports and sports participation with parents, using neighborhood recreation center, strict parental control of TV, reporting few activities overall, and being active in school were less likely to participate in a range of risky behaviors, ranging from an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.42 (outcome: illegal drug use, cluster: strict parental control of TV) to 0.88 (outcome: violence, cluster: sports with parents). Active teens were less likely to have low self-esteem (eg, adolescents engaging in sports with parents, ARR: 0.73) and more likely to have higher grades (eg, active in school, ARR: 1.20). Participation in a range of PA-related behaviors, particularly those characterized by high parental sports/exercise involvement, was associated with favorable adolescent risk profiles. Adolescents with high TV/video viewership were less

The need to estimate risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pochin, E.E.

1980-01-01

In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

Health risk behavior of youth in foster care.

Science.gov (United States)

Gramkowski, Bridget; Kools, Susan; Paul, Steven; Boyer, Cherrie B; Monasterio, Erica; Robbins, Nancy

2009-05-01

Many adolescent health problems are predominantly caused by risk behavior. Foster adolescents have disproportionately poor health; therefore, identification of risk behavior is critical. Data from a larger study were analyzed to investigate the health risk behavior of 56 youth in foster care using the Child Health and Illness Profile-Adolescent Edition. Data indicated that youth in foster care had some increased risk behavior when compared with a normative adolescent population. Younger adolescents and those in relative placement had less risky behavior. Risk behavior was increased for youth in foster care when they were in group homes, had experienced a parental death, or had a history of physical or emotional abuse or attempted suicide. These results point to areas of strength and vulnerability for youth in foster care and suggest areas for clinicians and caregivers of these adolescents to focus interventions towards harm reduction and enhancement of resiliency.

Model-Based Estimation of Collision Risks of Predatory Birds with Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcus Eichhorn

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of renewable energies, such as wind power, is a promising way of mitigating climate change. Because of the risk of collision with rotor blades, wind turbines have negative effects on local bird populations, particularly on raptors such as the Red Kite (Milvus milvus. Appropriate assessment tools for these effects have been lacking. To close this gap, we have developed an agent-based, spatially explicit model that simulates the foraging behavior of the Red Kite around its aerie in a landscape consisting of different land-use types. We determined the collision risk of the Red Kite with the turbine as a function of the distance between the wind turbine and the aerie and other parameters. The impact function comprises the synergistic effects of species-specific foraging behavior and landscape structure. The collision risk declines exponentially with increasing distance. The strength of this decline depends on the raptor's foraging behavior, its ability to avoid wind turbines, and the mean wind speed in the region. The collision risks, which are estimated by the simulation model, are in the range of values observed in the field. The derived impact function shows that the collision risk can be described as an aggregated function of distance between the wind turbine and the raptor's aerie. This allows an easy and rapid assessment of the ecological impacts of (existing or planned wind turbines in relation to their spatial location. Furthermore, it implies that minimum buffer zones for different landscapes can be determined in a defensible way. This modeling approach can be extended to other bird species with central-place foraging behavior. It provides a helpful tool for landscape planning aimed at minimizing the impacts of wind power on biodiversity.

Radiation risk and its estimation for nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krueger, F.W.

1979-01-01

The level of knowledge achieved in estimating risks due to the operation of nuclear facilities is discussed. In this connection it is analyzed to what extent risk estimates may be used for establishing requirements for facilities and measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. At present, estimates of risks are subject to great uncertainties. However, the results attainable already permit to discern the causes of possible accidents and to develop effective measures for preventing such accidents. For the time being (and maybe in principle) risk estimation is possible only with more or less arbitrary premises. Within the foreseeable future, cost-benefit comparisons cannot compensate for discretionary decisions in establishing requirements for measures of radiation protection and accident prevention. In preparing such decisions based on experience, expert opinions, political and socio-economic reflections and views, comparison of the risk of novel technologies with existing ones or accepted risks may be a useful means. (author)

Risk estimates for exposure to alpha emitters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-07-01

The primary scope of this report is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer from occupational exposure to short-lived daughters of radon and thoron. The Subcommittee on Risk Estimates considers that inhalation of radon and thoron daughters is the major radiation hazard from alpha radiation in uranium mining. The secondary scope of this report is the consideration of the applicability of the risk estimates derived from miners to the general public. The risk to members of the public from radium-226 in drinking water is also considered. Some research requirments are suggested

Parental knowledge and adolescents' risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Albertos, Aranzazu; Osorio, Alfonso; Lopez-Del Burgo, Cristina; Carlos, Silvia; Beltramo, Carlos; Trullols, Fernando

2016-12-01

In this paper we study whether parental knowledge of adolescents' activities varies according to socio-demographic variables, and we analyze the possible association between parental knowledge patterns and certain risk behaviors among adolescents. A cross-sectional study was performed with representative samples of high-school students in Peru and El Salvador. A questionnaire assessed risk behaviors, as well as possible determinants, including parental knowledge. The questionnaire was answered by 6208 adolescents. We observed that the greater the degree of knowledge, the lower the frequency of risk behaviors among youth. The degree of knowledge was inversely associated with children's age, and we observed that being female was associated with a greater degree of parental knowledge. The study shows that parents' supervision criteria might be influenced by gender stereotypes, which would have a harmful effect on young males, as the lower degree of knowledge puts them at higher odds of risk behaviors. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of the current status of radiation risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, M.W.; Little, M.P.

1988-10-01

This report reviews the current status of radiation risk estimation for low linear energy transfer radiation. Recent statements by various national and international organisations regarding risk estimates are critically discussed. The recently published revised population risk estimates from the study of Japanese bomb survivors are also reviewed and used with some unpublished data from Japan to calculate risk figures for a general work force. (author)

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System: 2011 National Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

2011-01-01

The national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) monitors six priority health-risk behaviors that contribute markedly to the leading causes of death, disability, and social problems among youth and adults in the United States. These behaviors, often established during childhood and early adolescence, include: (1) Behaviors that contribute to…

Risk estimation using probability machines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risky music-listening behaviors and associated health-risk behaviors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I. Vogel (Ineke); P.M. van de Looij-Jansen (Petra); C.L. Mieloo (Cathelijne); A. Burdorf (Alex); F. de Waart (Frouwkje)

2012-01-01

textabstractOBJECTIVE: To examine, among adolescents and emerging adults attending inner-city lower education, associations between risky music-listening behaviors (from MP3 players and in discotheques and at pop concerts) and more traditional health-risk behaviors: substance use (cigarettes,

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

Science.gov (United States)

Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

2016-01-01

Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

2017-08-01

To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Work stress and health risk behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegrist, Johannes; Rödel, Andreas

2006-12-01

This contribution discusses current knowledge of associations between psychosocial stress at work and health risk behavior, in particular cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight, by reviewing findings from major studies in the field published between 1989 and 2006. Psychosocial stress at work is measured by the demand-control model and the effort-reward imbalance model. Health risk behavior was analyzed in the broader context of a health-related Western lifestyle with socially and economically patterned practices of consumption. Overall, the review, based on 46 studies, only modestly supports the hypothesis of a consistent association between work stress and health risk behavior. The relatively strongest relationships have been found with regard to heavy alcohol consumption among men, overweight, and the co-manifestation of several risks. Suggestions for further research are given, and the need to reduce stressful experience in the framework of worksite health promotion programs is emphasized.

Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josip Arnerić

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

An application of extreme value theory in estimating liquidity risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonia Benito Muela

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The last global financial crisis (2007–2008 has highlighted the weaknesses of value at risk (VaR as a measure of market risk, as this metric by itself does not take liquidity risk into account. To address this problem, the academic literature has proposed incorporating liquidity risk into estimations of market risk by adding the VaR of the spread to the risk price. The parametric model is the standard approach used to estimate liquidity risk. As this approach does not generate reliable VaR estimates, we propose estimating liquidity risk using more sophisticated models based on extreme value theory (EVT. We find that the approach based on conditional extreme value theory outperforms the standard approach in terms of accurate VaR estimates and the market risk capital requirements of the Basel Capital Accord.

Teen Dating Violence (Physical and Sexual) Among US High School Students: Findings From the 2013 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Vagi, Kevin J; O'Malley Olsen, Emily; Basile, Kathleen C; Vivolo-Kantor, Alana M

2015-05-01

National estimates of teen dating violence (TDV) reveal high rates of victimization among high school populations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national Youth Risk Behavior Survey has provided often-cited estimates of physical TDV since 1999. In 2013, revisions were made to the physical TDV question to capture more serious forms of physical TDV and to screen out students who did not date. An additional question was added to assess sexual TDV. To describe the content of new physical and sexual TDV victimization questions first administered in the 2013 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey, to share data on the prevalence and frequency of TDV (including the first-ever published overall "both physical and sexual TDV" and "any TDV" national estimates using these new questions), and to assess associations of TDV experience with health-risk behaviors. Secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional survey of 9900 students who dated, from a nationally representative sample of US high school students, using the 2013 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Two survey questions separately assessed physical and sexual TDV; this analysis combined them to create a 4-level TDV measure and a 2-level TDV measure. The 4-level TDV measure includes "physical TDV only," "sexual TDV only," "both physical and sexual TDV," and "none." The 2-level TDV measure includes "any TDV" (either or both physical and sexual TDV) and "none." Sex-stratified bivariate and multivariable analyses assessed associations between TDV and health-risk behaviors. In 2013, among students who dated, 20.9% of female students (95% CI, 19.0%-23.0%) and 10.4% of male students (95% CI, 9.0%-11.7%) experienced some form of TDV during the 12 months before the survey. Female students had a higher prevalence than male students of physical TDV only, sexual TDV only, both physical and sexual TDV, and any TDV. All health-risk behaviors were most prevalent among students who experienced both forms of TDV and were

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Gender-specific differences in high-risk sexual behaviors among methamphetamine users in Myanmar-China border city, Muse, Myanmar: who is at risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Saw, Yu Mon; Saw, Thu Nandar; Chan, Nyein; Cho, Su Myat; Jimba, Masamine

2018-02-01

Methamphetamine (MA) use is a significant public health concern due to its negative effects on health. However, to date, no epidemiological research has examined high-risk sexual behaviors (inconsistent condom use, having multiple sexual partners and having a history of sexually transmitted infections) among MA users. This topic is particularly important in Myanmar, which is recognized as one of the key MA production countries in the Southeast Asia region. Therefore, this study examined factors associated with high-risk sexual behaviors among MA users in Muse city, Myanmar. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from January to March 2013 in Muse city, Northern Shan State, Myanmar. In total, 1183 MA users (772 male; 411 female) were recruited using respondent-driven sampling and a computer assisted self-interviewing method. Generalized estimating equation models were used to examine factors associated with high-risk sexual behaviors. A large proportion of MA users engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors (inconsistent condom use: males, 90.7%, females, 85.2%; multiple sexual partners: males, 94.2%, females, 47.2%; and history of STIs: males, 55.7%, females, 56.0%). Among males, being a multiple stimulants drug user (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] =1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.30-2.41) and being a client of sex workers (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.08-1.83) were risk factors for engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Among females, being a migrant worker (AOR = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.86-3.93) and being employed (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.13-2.18) were risk factors for engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors as well. High-risk sexual behaviors were particularly pronounced among both male and female MA users. MA prevention programs that reflect gender considerations should be developed to pay more attention to vulnerable populations such as migrants, clients of sex workers, and less educated female MA users.

Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webster, E.W.

1983-01-01

Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

Pre-migration trauma and HIV-risk behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Steel, Jennifer; Herlitz, Claes; Matthews, Jesse; Snyder, Wendy; Mazzaferro, Kathryn; Baum, Andy; Theorell, Töres

2003-03-01

This study examined the relationship between pre-migration trauma and HIV-risk behavior in refugees from sub-Saharan Africa. The sample comprised 122 persons who had emigrated from sub-Saharan Africa and were currently residing in Sweden. Qualitative methods including individual interviews, focus groups, and interviews with key informants addressed questions regarding trauma experience and HIV-risk behavior. A history of pre-migration trauma was found to be associated with HIV-risk behavior. According to the participants, symptoms associated with post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, adjustment disorder, and substance use mediated the relationship between pre-migration trauma and sexual risk behavior. In contrast, a minority of the participants who reported pre-migration trauma but not psychological sequelae, or experienced post-traumatic growth, reported safer sexual practices. It appears that for some individuals, pre-migration trauma resulted in psychiatric sequelae, which may increase an individual's risk to be infected with HIV. Interventions targeted at individuals at increased risk (i.e. pre-migration trauma with unresolved psychiatric symptomatology) may facilitate the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases in this population. Integration of multiple psychosocial and health issues is recommended for comprehensive treatment and prevention programs.

Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

CERN Document Server

Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

2017-01-01

This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

Relationships between bullying, school climate, and student risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Jennifer; Cornell, Dewey; Konold, Timothy

2012-09-01

This study examined whether characteristics of a positive school climate were associated with lower student risk behavior in a sample of 3,687 high school students who completed the School Climate Bullying Survey and questions about risk behavior from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS). Confirmatory factor analyses established fit for 20 items with three hypothesized school climate scales measuring (1) prevalence of bullying and teasing; (2) aggressive attitudes; and (3) student willingness to seek help. Structural equation modeling established the relationship of these measures with student reports of risk behavior. Multigroup analyses identified differential effects across gender and race. A positive school climate could be an important protective factor in preventing student risk behavior.

The gap between behavioral risk status and willingness to change behavior among healthcare professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Kasila, K; Hallman, M; Kautiainen, H; Vanhala, M; Kettunen, T

2018-01-01

This study explored behavioral health risk factors among healthcare professionals and investigated the at-risk persons' satisfaction with their health habits and ongoing change attempts. The study was based on a cross-sectional web-based survey directed at the nurses and physicians ( N = 1233) in Finnish healthcare. Obesity, low physical activity, smoking, and risky alcohol drinking were used as behavioral health risk factors. In all, 70% of the participants had at least one behavioral risk factor, and a significant number of at-risk persons were satisfied with their health habits and had no ongoing change process. Good self-rated health and good self-rated work ability were significantly associated with whether a participant had a behavioral health risk factor. Overall, unhealthy behaviors and a lack of ongoing change attempts were commonly observed among healthcare professionals. Work in healthcare is demanding, and healthy lifestyles can support coping. Thus, healthy lifestyle programs should also be targeted to healthcare professionals.

Parent-child communication processes: preventing children's health-risk behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Riesch, Susan K; Anderson, Lori S; Krueger, Heather A

2006-01-01

Review individual, family, and environmental factors that predict health-risk behavior among children and to propose parent-child communication processes as a mechanism to mediate them. Improving parent-child communication processes may: reduce individual risk factors, such as poor academic achievement or self-esteem; modify parenting practices such as providing regulation and structure and acting as models of health behavior; and facilitate discussion about factors that lead to involvement in health-risk behaviors. Assessment strategies to identify youth at risk for health-risk behavior are recommended and community-based strategies to improve communication among parents and children need development.

Executive functioning and risk-taking behavior in Parkinson's disease patients with impulse control disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Pineau, Fanny; Roze, Emmanuel; Lacomblez, Lucette; Bonnet, Anne-Marie; Vidailhet, Marie; Czernecki, Virginie; Corvol, Jean-Christophe

2016-06-01

Impulse control disorders (ICD) are common in Parkinson's disease (PD) and are associated with dopaminergic medication. The purpose of this study was to investigate executive function and risk-taking behavior in PD patients with ICD. 17 PD patients with ICD (ICD-PD) were compared to 20 PD patients without ICD (CTRL-PD) using neuropsychological and experimental tasks. Executive functions were assessed using standard executive testing (Conner's Performance Test, Modified Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Trail Making Test and phonological verbal fluency). Subjects were also submitted to an experimental gambling task consisted of three decks of money cards: neutral deck (equal opportunity for gains as losses), winning deck (small amount of money with a positive balance) and loser deck (high amount of money with a negative balance), evaluating risk-taking behavior (number of cards picked in each deck) and valuation of the reward (subjective appreciation of the value of each deck). There was no significant difference in executive functioning between groups. Both groups selected more cards in the losing deck (high amount of money) as compared to the neutral deck (Mann-Whitney test, ICD-PD, p = 0.02; CTRL-PD, p = 0.003) and to the winning deck (Mann-Whitney test, ICD-PD p = 0.0001; CTRL-PD p = 0.003), suggesting an increased risk-taking behavior. Interestingly, we found that ICD-PD patients estimated the value of decks differently from CTRL-PD patients, taking into account mainly the positive reinforced value of the decks (Mann-Whitney test, p = 0.04). This study showed that executive pattern and risk-taking behavior are similar between ICD-PD and CTRL-PD patients. However, ICD-PD patients showed a specific deficit of the subjective estimation of the reward. Links between this deficit and metacognitive skills are discussed.

Parental knowledge and adolescents' risk behaviors

OpenAIRE

Albertos, A. (Aranzazu); Osorio, A. (Alfonso); Lopez-del-Burgo, C. (Cristina); Carlos, S. (Silvia); Beltramo, C. (Carlos); Trullols, F. (Fernando)

2016-01-01

In this paper we study whether parental knowledge of adolescents’ activities varies according to socio-demographic variables, and we analyze the possible association between parental knowledge patterns and certain risk behaviors among adolescents. A cross-sectional study was performed with representative samples of high-school students in Peru and El Salvador. A questionnaire assessed risk behaviors, as well as possible determinants, including parental knowledge. The questionnaire was answere...

HIV Risk Perception, HIV Knowledge, and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Transgender Women in South Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

De Santis, Joseph P; Hauglum, Shayne D; Deleon, Diego A; Provencio-Vasquez, Elias; Rodriguez, Allan E

2017-05-01

Transgender women experience a variety of factors that may contribute to HIV risk. The purpose of this study was to explore links among HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors of transgender women. A descriptive, correlational study design was used. Fifty transgender women from the South Florida area were enrolled in the study. Transgender women completed a demographic questionnaire and standardized instruments measuring HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors. Transgender women reported low levels of HIV risk perception, and had knowledge deficits regarding HIV risk/transmission. Some participants engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Predictors of sexual risk behaviors among transgender women were identified. More research is needed with a larger sample size to continue studying factors that contribute to sexual risk behaviors in the understudied population of transgender women. Evidence-based guidelines are available to assist public health nurses in providing care for transgender women. Nurses must assess HIV perception risk and HIV knowledge and provide relevant education to transgender women on ways to minimize sexual risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

2016-01-01

.73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p women). Simple risk charts were constructed. On simulated...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre...... model and were included in the SCORE O.P. model were: age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and diabetes. SCORE O.P. showed good discrimination; area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0...

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Impact of a financial risk-sharing scheme on budget-impact estimations: a game-theoretic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gavious, Arieh; Greenberg, Dan; Hammerman, Ariel; Segev, Ella

2014-06-01

As part of the process of updating the National List of Health Services in Israel, health plans (the 'payers') and manufacturers each provide estimates on the expected number of patients that will utilize a new drug. Currently, payers face major financial consequences when actual utilization is higher than the allocated budget. We suggest a risk-sharing model between the two stakeholders; if the actual number of patients exceeds the manufacturer's prediction, the manufacturer will reimburse the payers by a rebate rate of α from the deficit. In case of under-utilization, payers will refund the government at a rate of γ from the surplus budget. Our study objective was to identify the optimal early estimations of both 'players' prior to and after implementation of the risk-sharing scheme. Using a game-theoretic approach, in which both players' statements are considered simultaneously, we examined the impact of risk-sharing within a given range of rebate proportions, on players' early budget estimations. When increasing manufacturer's rebate α to be over 50 %, then manufacturers will announce a larger number, and health plans will announce a lower number of patients than they would without risk sharing, thus substantially decreasing the gap between their estimates. Increasing γ changes players' estimates only slightly. In reaction to applying a substantial risk-sharing rebate α on the manufacturer, both players are expected to adjust their budget estimates toward an optimal equilibrium. Increasing α is a better vehicle for reaching the desired equilibrium rather than increasing γ, as the manufacturer's rebate α substantially influences both players, whereas γ has little effect on the players behavior.

Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

1979-01-01

The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

Sexting and sexual behavior in at-risk adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Houck, Christopher D; Barker, David; Rizzo, Christie; Hancock, Evan; Norton, Alicia; Brown, Larry K

2014-02-01

This study aimed to examine the prevalence of sexting behaviors (sexually explicit messages and/or pictures) among an at-risk sample of early adolescents as well as the associations between sexting behaviors and sexual behaviors, risk-related cognitions, and emotional regulation skills. It also aimed to determine whether differences in risk were associated with text-based versus photo-based sexts. Seventh-grade adolescents participating in a sexual risk prevention trial for at-risk early adolescents completed a computer-based survey at baseline regarding sexting behavior (having sent sexually explicit messages and/or pictures), sexual activities, intentions to have sex, perceived approval of sexual activity, and emotional regulation skills. Twenty-two percent of the sample reported having sexted in the past 6 months; sexual messages were endorsed by 17% (n = 71), sexual messages and photos by 5% (n = 21). Pictures were endorsed significantly more often by females (χ(2)[2] = 7.33, P = .03) and Latinos (χ(2)[2] = 7.27, P = .03). Sexting of any kind was associated with higher rates of engaging in a variety of sexual behaviors, and sending photos was associated with higher rates of sexual activity than sending text messages only. This was true for a range of behaviors from touching genitals over clothes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.98, P = .03) to oral sex (OR = 2.66, P Sexting behavior (both photo and text messages) was not uncommon among middle school youth and co-occurred with sexual behavior. These data suggest that phone behaviors, even flirtatious messages, may be an indicator of risk. Clinicians, parents, and health programs should discuss sexting with early adolescents.

Sexting and Sexual Behavior in At-Risk Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, David; Rizzo, Christie; Hancock, Evan; Norton, Alicia; Brown, Larry K.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the prevalence of sexting behaviors (sexually explicit messages and/or pictures) among an at-risk sample of early adolescents as well as the associations between sexting behaviors and sexual behaviors, risk-related cognitions, and emotional regulation skills. It also aimed to determine whether differences in risk were associated with text-based versus photo-based sexts. METHODS: Seventh-grade adolescents participating in a sexual risk prevention trial for at-risk early adolescents completed a computer-based survey at baseline regarding sexting behavior (having sent sexually explicit messages and/or pictures), sexual activities, intentions to have sex, perceived approval of sexual activity, and emotional regulation skills. RESULTS: Twenty-two percent of the sample reported having sexted in the past 6 months; sexual messages were endorsed by 17% (n = 71), sexual messages and photos by 5% (n = 21). Pictures were endorsed significantly more often by females (χ2[2] = 7.33, P = .03) and Latinos (χ2[2] = 7.27, P = .03). Sexting of any kind was associated with higher rates of engaging in a variety of sexual behaviors, and sending photos was associated with higher rates of sexual activity than sending text messages only. This was true for a range of behaviors from touching genitals over clothes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.98, P = .03) to oral sex (OR = 2.66, P Sexting behavior (both photo and text messages) was not uncommon among middle school youth and co-occurred with sexual behavior. These data suggest that phone behaviors, even flirtatious messages, may be an indicator of risk. Clinicians, parents, and health programs should discuss sexting with early adolescents. PMID:24394678

Application of activity sensors for estimating behavioral patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Caleb P.; Cain, James W.; Cox, Robert D.

2016-01-01

The increasing use of Global Positioning System (GPS) collars in habitat selection studies provides large numbers of precise location data points with reduced field effort. However, inclusion of activity sensors in many GPS collars also grants the potential to remotely estimate behavioral state. Thus, only using GPS collars to collect location data belies their full capabilities. Coupling behavioral state with location data would allow researchers and managers to refine habitat selection models by using diel behavioral state changes to partition fine-scale temporal shifts in habitat selection. We tested the capability of relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors to estimate behavior throughout diel periods using free-ranging female elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, USA, 2013–2014. Collars recorded cumulative number of movements (hits) per 15-min recording period immediately preceding GPS fixes at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 hr. We measured diel behavioral patterns of focal elk, categorizing active (i.e., foraging, traveling, vigilant, grooming) and inactive (i.e., resting) states. Active behaviors (foraging, traveling) produced more average hits (0.87 ± 0.69 hits/min, 4.0 ± 2.2 hits/min, respectively; 95% CI) and inactive (resting) behavior fewer hits (−1.1 ± 0.61 95% CI). We differentiated active and inactive behavioral states with a bootstrapped threshold of 5.9 ± 3.9 hits/15-min recording period. Mean cumulative activity-sensor hits corresponded with observed diel behavioral patterns: hits increased during crepuscular (0600, 1800 hr) observations when elk were most active (0000–0600 hr: d = 0.19; 1200–1800 hr: d = 0.64) and decreased during midday and night (0000 hr, 1200 hr) when elk were least active (1800–0000 hr: d = −0.39; 0600–1200 hr: d = −0.43). Even using relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors, managers can

Estimate of Hanford Waste Rheology and Settling Behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poloski, Adam P.; Wells, Beric E.; Tingey, Joel M.; Mahoney, Lenna A.; Hall, Mark N.; Thomson, Scott L.; Smith, Gary Lynn; Johnson, Michael E.; Meacham, Joseph E.; Knight, Mark A.; Thien, Michael G.; Davis, Jim J.; Onishi, Yasuo

2007-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of River Protection's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will process and treat radioactive waste that is stored in tanks at the Hanford Site. Piping, pumps, and mixing vessels have been selected to transport, store, and mix the high-level waste slurries in the WTP. This report addresses the analyses performed by the Rheology Working Group (RWG) and Risk Assessment Working Group composed of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PNNL, Bechtel National Inc. (BNI), CH2M HILL, DOE Office of River Protection (ORP) and Yasuo Onishi Consulting, LLC staff on data obtained from documented Hanford waste analyses to determine a best-estimate of the rheology of the Hanford tank wastes and their settling behavior. The actual testing activities were performed and reported separately in referenced documentation. Because of this, many of the required topics below do not apply and are so noted

How investor perceptions drive actual trading and risk-taking behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoffmann, A.O.I.; Post, T.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2015-01-01

Recent work in behavioral finance showed how investors' perceptions (i.e., return expectations, risk tolerance, and risk perception) affect hypothetical trading and risk-taking behavior. However, are such perceptions also capable of explaining actual trading and risk-taking behavior? To answer this

Prevalence of health-risk behaviors among Asian American and Pacific Islander high school students in the U.S., 2001-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, Richard; Eaton, Danice K; Brener, Nancy D; Kann, Laura

2011-01-01

We provided national prevalence estimates for selected health-risk behaviors for Asian American and Pacific Islander high school students separately, and compared those prevalence estimates with those of white, black, and Hispanic students. We analyzed data from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. To generate a sufficient sample of Asian American and Pacific Islander students, we combined data from four nationally representative surveys of U.S. high school students conducted in 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2007 (total n = 56,773). Asian American students were significantly less likely than Pacific Islander, white, black, or Hispanic students to have drunk alcohol or used marijuana. Asian American students also were the least likely to have carried a weapon, to have been in a physical fight, to have ever had sexual intercourse, or to be currently sexually active. Once sexually active, Asian American students were as likely as most other racial/ethnic groups to have used alcohol or drugs at last sexual intercourse or to have used a condom at last sexual intercourse. Pacific Islander students were significantly more likely than Asian American, white, black, or Hispanic students to have seriously considered or attempted suicide. The prevalence estimates of health-risk behaviors exhibited by Asian American students and Pacific Islander students are very different and should be reported separately whenever feasible. To address the different health-risk behaviors exhibited by Asian American and Pacific Islander students, prevention programs should use culturally sensitive strategies and materials.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Culture's influence on consumers : exploratory behavior and risk taking

OpenAIRE

Soares, Ana Maria; Farhangmehr, Minoo; Shoham, Aviv

2003-01-01

This theoretical paper addresses the influence of culture on risk taking and exploratory behavior. The cultural dimensions of long-term orientation, power distance, uncertainty avoidance, collectivism, and masculinity (Hofstede, 1984, 2001) are hypothesized to influence risk-taking behavior in general, and, through it, exploratory consumption behavior, risk taking, and risk attitudes and perception towards specific products. We also propose an empirical study to test the emergent model. Fu...

[Parental practices and pedestrian risk behaviors in Chilean adolescents].

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Andrea C; Repetto, Paula B

2014-08-01

Traffic accidents are the second leading cause of death among adolescents and young adults in Chile. However, few studies have examined this behavior among this age group. Parental practices have a great influence on risk behaviors in adolescents, such as substance use, sexuality and violence, among others. Specifically, we propose that these practices will influence pedestrian risk behaviors among adolescents. To study the role of parental practices such as mother and father support, and behavioral control (monitoring and presence of rules) in pedestrian risk behaviors of teenagers. A sample of 470 adolescents attending schools in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile were studied. They answered a self-administered questionnaire in which they were asked about parental practices and pedestrian risk behaviors. Analyses were performed using descriptive and inferential statistics, using multiple regression. Paternal support and the presence of rules were protective factors for pedestrian risky behaviors. However, maternal support or monitoring did not influence these behaviors. Parental practices influence pedestrian behaviors of teenagers. The study provides further evidence for the importance of these practices in the development of behavioral self-regulation.

Comments on mutagenesis risk estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, W.L.

1976-01-01

Several hypotheses and concepts have tended to oversimplify the problem of mutagenesis and can be misleading when used for genetic risk estimation. These include: the hypothesis that radiation-induced mutation frequency depends primarily on the DNA content per haploid genome, the extension of this concept to chemical mutagenesis, the view that, since DNA is DNA, mutational effects can be expected to be qualitatively similar in all organisms, the REC unit, and the view that mutation rates from chronic irradiation can be theoretically and accurately predicted from acute irradiation data. Therefore, direct determination of frequencies of transmitted mutations in mammals continues to be important for risk estimation, and the specific-locus method in mice is shown to be not as expensive as is commonly supposed for many of the chemical testing requirements

Planned versus Unplanned Risks: Neurocognitive Predictors of Subtypes of Adolescents' Risk Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Maslowsky, Julie; Keating, Daniel P.; Monk, Christopher S.; Schulenberg, John

2011-01-01

Risk behavior contributes to substantial morbidity and mortality during adolescence. This study examined neurocognitive predictors of proposed subtypes of adolescent risk behavior: planned (premeditated) versus unplanned (spontaneous). Adolescents (N = 69, 49% male, M = 15.1 [1.0] years) completed neurocognitive tasks (Iowa Gambling Task [IGT],…

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Comparison of the risks of shopping behavior and opioid abuse between tapentadol and oxycodone and association of shopping behavior and opioid abuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Cepeda, M Soledad; Fife, Daniel; Kihm, Mary A; Mastrogiovanni, Greg; Yuan, Yingli

2014-12-01

This study compared the risks of opioid shopping behavior and opioid abuse between tapentadol immediate release and oxycodone immediate release and, to validate the definition of shopping, examined the association between opioid shopping and opioid abuse further. This retrospective cohort study using linked dispensing and diagnosis databases followed opioid-naive patients for development of shopping behavior and/or opioid abuse during 1 year after initial exposure to tapentadol or oxycodone. Shopping was defined by having overlapping opioid prescriptions from >1 prescriber filled at ≥3 pharmacies; abuse by having International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision diagnoses reflecting opioid abuse, addiction, or dependence. To determine their association, we cross-tabulated shopping and opioid abuse and calculated odds ratios. Risks of developing each outcome were estimated using logistic regression. Among 277,401 participants initiating opioid use with tapentadol (39,524) or oxycodone (237,877), 0.6% developed shopping behavior, 0.75% developed abuse. Higher proportions of patients in the oxycodone group developed shopping behavior and abuse than in the tapentadol group (shopping: adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.45 [0.36-0.55]; abuse: 0.44 [0.37-0.54]). Shopping behavior and abuse were associated; of those with shopping behavior, 6.5% had abuse. Age (18 to 64 y), sex (male), prior benzodiazepine use, paying cash, and history (mood disorders, abuse of nonopioid medications, and back pain) were risk factors for developing either outcome. Shopping behavior and abuse measure complementary, but associated, constructs, which further validates the current definition of shopping. The risk of developing either is lower among patients who initiate opioid use with tapentadol than those who initiate opioid use with oxycodone.

Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

OpenAIRE

Pei Pei

2010-01-01

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framew...

Estimating Risk Parameters

OpenAIRE

Aswath Damodaran

1999-01-01

Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...

Social class & risk preferences and behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Kish-Gephart, Jennifer J

2017-12-01

This paper reviews recent work regarding the link between one's societal ranking (or social class), and risk preferences and behavior. While the topic of social class and its relationship to risk has been studied only tentatively in psychology, preliminary evidence suggests that experiences with rank, access to resources, and movement between classes have a meaningful impact on people's risk preferences and behaviors. Yet, a clear pattern of results remains elusive. Some studies suggest that lower social class standing is related to risk aversion, while others suggest it is related to risk taking. These mixed results highlight the need for future research that examines when and why lower social class standing is related to more or less risky decisions. By shedding light on this important phenomenon, the hope is to offer intervention opportunities that influence policies and mitigate inequality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marks, S.

1984-04-01

Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references

How Investor Perceptions Drive Actual Trading and Risk-Taking Behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoffmann, A.O.I.; Post, T.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2015-01-01

Recent work in behavioral finance showed how investors’ perceptions (i.e., return expectations, risk tolerance, and risk perception) affect hypothetical trading and risk-taking behavior. However, are such perceptions also capable of explaining actual trading and risktaking behavior? To answer this

Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

2015-01-01

The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

Maternal medical risks during pregnancy and childhood externalizing behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Dylan B; Vaughn, Michael G

2018-04-25

Research has indicated that maternal health during the prenatal period and at delivery carries far reaching significance for the development of offspring. Even so, the role of the accumulation of maternal medical risks during pregnancy in the development of externalizing behavior during childhood has generally been overlooked. The present study investigates whether the accumulation of maternal medical risks during the prenatal period is positively associated with childhood externalizing behavior, and whether this association is stronger among male offspring. We examined a large, nationally representative sample of children who participated in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). Information concerning maternal medical history, including the presence of a number of medical risks during pregnancy, was obtained through hospital records. A subsample of children with both parent and teacher reports of externalizing behavior during kindergarten was employed in the present study. A greater number of maternal medical risks during pregnancy increased the odds of childhood externalizing behavior across settings, but only among male offspring. The predicted probability of persistent externalizing behavior among males increased from .084 in the absence of maternal medical risks during pregnancy to .241 in the presence of three or more maternal medical risks during pregnancy. Our findings suggest that maternal medical risks during the prenatal period can have far-reaching consequences for the behavioral development of male offspring. Treatment of medical risks among expectant mothers may have the added benefit of reducing the likelihood of childhood externalizing behavior among male progeny. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Perception and sexual risk behaviors among HIV-positive men on antiretroviral therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Remien, Robert H; Halkitis, Perry N; O'Leary, Ann; Wolitski, Richard J; Gómez, Cynthia A

2005-06-01

There are reports of increased sexual risk behavior among people on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) due to beliefs about risk of HIV transmission when on HAART. In a cross-sectional study (Seropositive Urban Men's Study), we examined the relationship between risk perception and sexual risk behavior among sexually active, culturally diverse HIV positive men who have sex with men (N = 456). Less than twenty-five percent engaged in unprotected anal sex (either with an HIV negative, or unknown-status partner, or an HIV positive partner) within the past 3 months. Most men believed there was significant health risk (to partner or self) associated with unprotected sex when on HAART. There was no increased risk behavior associated with being on HAART, although the perception of negative health consequences, including HIV transmission, when on HAART was significantly lower for the relatively small subset of men who reported unprotected sex. Prevention strategies need to be tailored to address risk perception associated with HAART.

Sexual Risk Behavior Among Youth With Bipolar Disorder: Identifying Demographic and Clinical Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Krantz, Megan; Goldstein, Tina; Rooks, Brian; Merranko, John; Liao, Fangzi; Gill, Mary Kay; Diler, Rasim; Hafeman, Danella; Ryan, Neal; Goldstein, Benjamin; Yen, Shirley; Hower, Heather; Hunt, Jeffrey; Keller, Martin; Strober, Michael; Axelson, David; Birmaher, Boris

2018-02-01

This study aims to document rates of sexual activity among youth with bipolar spectrum disorder (BD) and to examine demographic and clinical factors associated with first sexual activity and sexual risk behavior during follow-up. The sample was drawn from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study of 413 youth 7 to 17 years at baseline who met criteria for bipolar spectrum disorder according to the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children. Psychiatric symptoms during follow-up were assessed using the Adolescent Longitudinal Interview Follow-Up Evaluation (ALIFE). Sexual behavior and level of sexual risk (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, and/or partners with known sexually transmitted infections) were assessed by trained evaluators using the ALIFE Psychosocial Functioning Scale. Analyses were conducted in relation to first sexual behavior during follow-up and then to subsequent sexual behaviors (mean 9.7 years, standard deviation 3.2). Sexually active COBY youth (n = 292 of 413; 71%) were more likely females, using substances, and not living with both parents. Consistent with findings among healthy youth, earlier first sexual activity in the sample was significantly associated with low socioeconomic status, female sex, comorbid disruptive behavior disorder, and substance use. As with healthy youth, sexual risk behavior during follow-up was significantly associated with non-Caucasian race, low socioeconomic status, substance use, and history of sexual abuse. Of those COBY youth who were sexually active, 11% reported sexual assault or abuse, 36% reported becoming pregnant (or the significant other becoming pregnant), and 15% reported having at least 1 abortion (or the significant other having an abortion) during follow-up. Hypomanic symptoms during follow-up were temporally associated with the greatest risk for sexual risk behavior. Demographic and clinical factors could help identify youth with bipolar spectrum

A review of radiation risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-06-01

Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

Health risk behavior of rural secondary school students in Zimbabwe.

Science.gov (United States)

Gwede, C K; McDermott, R J; Westhoff, W W; Mushore, M; Mushore, T; Chitsika, E; Majange, C S; Chauke, P

2001-10-01

A socioculturally appropriate health risk behavior instrument, modeled after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), was administered to 717 secondary school students in a rural area of Zimbabwe. Comparisons of risk behaviors by gender and school grade were made using univariate procedures and multiple logistic regression. Males were significantly more likely than females to have had sexual intercourse (odds ratio = 5.02, p < .0001) and to report drug use behaviors. Males also were significantly more likely to report early initiation (by age 13 years) of alcohol use, cigarette smoking, and marijuana use. School site violence and drug use behaviors also were prevalent in this sample. An interaction between gender and grade was evident for some behaviors. Additional research may further the understanding of these risk behaviors and facilitate development of effective, culturally relevant risk reduction programs.

Sex differences in behavioral impulsivity in at-risk and non-risk drinkers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica eWeafer

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Mounting evidence from both animal and human studies suggests that females are more vulnerable to drug and alcohol abuse than males. Some of this increased risk may be related to behavioral traits, such as impulsivity. Here we examined sex differences in two forms of behavioral impulsivity (inhibitory control and impulsive choice in young men and women, in relation to their level of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems (at-risk or non-risk. Methods: Participants performed a go/no-go task to assess inhibitory control and a measure of delay discounting to assess impulsive choice. Results: On the measure of inhibitory control, at-risk women committed significantly more inhibitory errors than at-risk men, indicating poorer behavioral control among the women. By contrast, no sex differences were observed between at-risk men and women in delay discounting, or between the male and female non-risk drinkers on any measure. Conclusion: Heavy drinking women displayed poorer inhibitory control than heavy drinking men. It remains to be determined whether the sex differences in inhibitory control are the result of drinking, or whether they pre-dated the problematic drinking in these individuals.

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

Science.gov (United States)

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

Estimation of cancer risks from radiotherapy of benign diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trott, K.R.; Kamprad, F.

2006-01-01

Background: The effective-dose method which was proposed by the ICRP (International Commission of Radiation Protection) for the estimation of risk to the general population from occupational or environmental, low-dose radiation exposure is not adequate for estimating the risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of malignant or nonmalignant diseases. Methods:The risk of cancer induction by radiotherapy of benign diseases should be based on epidemiologic data directly derived from follow-up studies of patients who had been given radiotherapy for nonmalignant diseases in the past. Results: Risk factors were derived from epidemiologic studies of patients treated with irradiation for nonmalignant diseases to be used for selecting treatment options and optimizing treatment procedures. Conclusion: In most cases, cancer risks estimated by the effective-dose method may overestimate the true risks by one order of magnitude, yet in other cases even may underestimate it. The proposed method using organ-specific risk factors may be more suitable for treatment planning. (orig.)

Pathological Internet Use and Risk-Behaviors among European Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tony Durkee

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Risk-behaviors are a major contributor to the leading causes of morbidity among adolescents and young people; however, their association with pathological Internet use (PIU is relatively unexplored, particularly within the European context. The main objective of this study is to investigate the association between risk-behaviors and PIU in European adolescents. This cross-sectional study was conducted within the framework of the FP7 European Union project: Saving and Empowering Young Lives in Europe (SEYLE. Data on adolescents were collected from randomized schools within study sites across eleven European countries. PIU was measured using Young’s Diagnostic Questionnaire (YDQ. Risk-behaviors were assessed using questions procured from the Global School-Based Student Health Survey (GSHS. A total of 11,931 adolescents were included in the analyses: 43.4% male and 56.6% female (M/F: 5179/6752, with a mean age of 14.89 ± 0.87 years. Adolescents reporting poor sleeping habits and risk-taking actions showed the strongest associations with PIU, followed by tobacco use, poor nutrition and physical inactivity. Among adolescents in the PIU group, 89.9% were characterized as having multiple risk-behaviors. The significant association observed between PIU and risk-behaviors, combined with a high rate of co-occurrence, underlines the importance of considering PIU when screening, treating or preventing high-risk behaviors among adolescents.

An association rule mining-based framework for understanding lifestyle risk behaviors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

So Hyun Park

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the prevalence and patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors in Korean adults. METHODS: We utilized data from the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 14,833 adults (>20 years of age. We used association rule mining to analyze patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors by characterizing non-adherence to public health recommendations related to the Alameda 7 health behaviors. The study variables were current smoking, heavy drinking, physical inactivity, obesity, inadequate sleep, breakfast skipping, and frequent snacking. RESULTS: Approximately 72% of Korean adults exhibited two or more lifestyle risk behaviors. Among women, current smoking, obesity, and breakfast skipping were associated with inadequate sleep. Among men, breakfast skipping with additional risk behaviors such as physical inactivity, obesity, and inadequate sleep was associated with current smoking. Current smoking with additional risk behaviors such as inadequate sleep or breakfast skipping was associated with physical inactivity. CONCLUSION: Lifestyle risk behaviors are intercorrelated in Korea. Information on patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors could assist in planning interventions targeted at multiple behaviors simultaneously.

Predicting risk-taking behavior from prefrontal resting-state activity and personality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bettina Studer

Full Text Available Risk-taking is subject to considerable individual differences. In the current study, we tested whether resting-state activity in the prefrontal cortex and trait sensitivity to reward and punishment can help predict risk-taking behavior. Prefrontal activity at rest was assessed in seventy healthy volunteers using electroencephalography, and compared to their choice behavior on an economic risk-taking task. The Behavioral Inhibition System/Behavioral Activation System scale was used to measure participants' trait sensitivity to reward and punishment. Our results confirmed both prefrontal resting-state activity and personality traits as sources of individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Right-left asymmetry in prefrontal activity and scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale, reflecting trait sensitivity to punishment, were correlated with the level of risk-taking on the task. We further discovered that scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale modulated the relationship between asymmetry in prefrontal resting-state activity and risk-taking. The results of this study demonstrate that heterogeneity in risk-taking behavior can be traced back to differences in the basic physiology of decision-makers' brains, and suggest that baseline prefrontal activity and personality traits might interplay in guiding risk-taking behavior.

Predicting Risk-Taking Behavior from Prefrontal Resting-State Activity and Personality

Science.gov (United States)

Studer, Bettina; Pedroni, Andreas; Rieskamp, Jörg

2013-01-01

Risk-taking is subject to considerable individual differences. In the current study, we tested whether resting-state activity in the prefrontal cortex and trait sensitivity to reward and punishment can help predict risk-taking behavior. Prefrontal activity at rest was assessed in seventy healthy volunteers using electroencephalography, and compared to their choice behavior on an economic risk-taking task. The Behavioral Inhibition System/Behavioral Activation System scale was used to measure participants’ trait sensitivity to reward and punishment. Our results confirmed both prefrontal resting-state activity and personality traits as sources of individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Right-left asymmetry in prefrontal activity and scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale, reflecting trait sensitivity to punishment, were correlated with the level of risk-taking on the task. We further discovered that scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale modulated the relationship between asymmetry in prefrontal resting-state activity and risk-taking. The results of this study demonstrate that heterogeneity in risk-taking behavior can be traced back to differences in the basic physiology of decision-makers’ brains, and suggest that baseline prefrontal activity and personality traits might interplay in guiding risk-taking behavior. PMID:24116176

Associations of Drug Use, Violence, and Depressive Symptoms with Sexual Risk Behaviors Among Women with Alcohol Misuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kristen; Hutton, Heidi E; Lesko, Catherine R; Monroe, Anne K; Alvanzo, Anika; McCaul, Mary E; Chander, Geetanjali

2018-05-18

Alcohol misuse is associated with increased human immunodeficiency virus sexual risk behaviors by women. Drug use, intimate partner violence (IPV), and depressive symptoms frequently co-occur, are well-recognized alcohol misuse comorbidities, and may interact to increase risk behaviors. Using a syndemic framework we examined associations between drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms and sexual risk behaviors by 400 women with alcohol misuse attending an urban sexually transmitted infections clinic. Participants completed computer-assisted interviews querying drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms and sexual risk behavior outcomes-unprotected sex under the influence of alcohol, sex for drugs/money, and number of lifetime sexual partners. We used multivariable analysis to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) for independent and joint associations between drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms and our outcomes. To investigate synergy between risk factors we calculated the relative excess prevalence owing to interaction for all variable combinations. In multivariable analysis, drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms alone and in combination were associated with higher prevalence/count of risk behaviors compared with women with alcohol misuse alone. The greatest prevalence/count occurred when all three were present (unprotected sex under the influence of alcohol [PR, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-4.9]), sex for money or drugs [PR, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-4.2], and number of lifetime partners [PR, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-5.2]). Drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms did not interact synergistically to increase sexual risk behavior prevalence. A higher prevalence of sexual risk behaviors by women with alcohol misuse combined with drug use, IPV, and depressive symptoms supports the need for alcohol interventions addressing these additional comorbidities. Copyright © 2018 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Self-Reported Executive Functioning and Risk-Taking Behavior in Urban Homeless Youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Piche, Joshua; Kaylegian, Jaeson; Smith, Dale; Hunter, Scott J

2018-01-03

Introduction: Almost 2 million U.S. youth are estimated to live on the streets, in shelters, or in other types of temporary housing at some point each year. Both their age and living situations make them more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, particularly during adolescence, a time of increased risk taking. Much of self-control appears related to the development of the prefrontal cortex, which is at a particularly crucial period of elaboration and refinement during adolescence and emerging adulthood. Executive processes like decision-making, inhibition, planning, and reasoning may be vulnerable to adversity experienced as a result of homelessness and related impoverishment during childhood and adolescence. No study to date, to our knowledge, has directly investigated differences in risk-taking by homeless youth as it relates to their developing executive control. Objective: Examine the relationship between the level of self-reported executive function (EF) and engagement in risk taking behaviors among a sample of shelter-living urban homeless youth. We predicted that homeless youth who have lower levels of self-reported EF would more readily engage in risky behaviors that could lead to negative outcomes. Participants: One hundred and forty-nine youths between 18 and 22 years of age were recruited from homeless agencies in Chicago. Of this study sample, 53% were female and 76% African American. Measures: All participants completed, as part of a broader neuropsychological assessment, the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning-Adult Version (BRIEF-A), the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). Analyses: Groups were separated based on level of self-reported EF, with two groups identified: High self-reported EF fell >1 SD above the normative average, and low self-reported EF fell >1 SD below the normative average. All analyses utilized Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests. Results and

A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Reza Iravani

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

Estimation, assessment and management of risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

2005-01-01

After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section...

The association between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and high-risk injection behavior among people who inject drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

DeCuir, Jennifer; Lovasi, Gina S; El-Sayed, Abdulrahman; Lewis, Crystal Fuller

2018-02-01

Although much research has been conducted on the determinants of HIV risk behavior among people who inject drugs (PWID), the influence of the neighborhood context on high-risk injection behavior remains understudied. To address this gap in the literature, we measured associations between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and high-risk injection behavior, and determined whether these associations were modified by drug-related police activity and syringe exchange program (SEP) accessibility. Our sample was comprised of 484 pharmacy-recruited PWID in New York City. Measures of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage were created using data from the 2006-2010 American Community Survey. Associations with high-risk injection behavior were estimated using multivariable Poisson regression. Effect modification by drug-related police activity and SEP accessibility was assessed by entering cross-product terms into adjusted models of high-risk injection behavior. Neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with decreased receptive syringe sharing and unsterile syringe use. In neighborhoods with high drug-related police activity, associations between neighborhood disadvantage and unsterile syringe use were attenuated to the null. In neighborhoods with high SEP accessibility, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with decreased acquisition of syringes from an unsafe source. PWID in disadvantaged neighborhoods reported safer injection behaviors than their counterparts in neighborhoods that were relatively better off. The contrasting patterns of effect modification by SEP accessibility and drug-related police activity support the use of harm reduction approaches over law enforcement-based strategies for the control of blood borne virus transmission among PWID in disadvantaged urban areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental risk factors for REM sleep behavior disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Postuma, R B; Montplaisir, J Y; Pelletier, A

2012-01-01

Idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder is a parasomnia characterized by dream enactment and is commonly a prediagnostic sign of parkinsonism and dementia. Since risk factors have not been defined, we initiated a multicenter case-control study to assess environmental and lifestyle risk factors...... for REM sleep behavior disorder....

Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.

1989-01-01

It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

1982-01-01

The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

All-cause mortality risk as a function of sedentary behavior, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Meghan K; Loprinzi, Paul D

2016-09-01

Emerging work demonstrates individual associations of sedentary behavior, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) on mortality risk. Limited research has evaluated all three of these parameters in a model when considering mortality risk, and their potential additive association on mortality risk has not been fully evaluated, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used (N = 2,295 adults 20-85 yrs), with follow-up through 2011. Sedentary behavior and MVPA were objectively assessed (accelerometry) with cardiorespiratory estimated from a prediction equation taking into consideration participant demographic, anthropometric and behavioral characteristics. Using the median values, a PACS (Physical Activity Cardiorespiratory Sedentary) score was created that ranged from 0-3, indicating the number of these three positive characteristics. Those with below median sedentary behavior did not have a reduced all-cause mortality risk (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.34-1.04; P = 0.07), but those with above median MVPA (HR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.15-0.82; P = 0.02) and above median CRF did (HR = 0.20; 95% CI: 0.09-0.43; P sedentary behavior, were independently associated with reduced mortality risk. Adults with all three characteristics (below median sedentary and above median MVPA and CRF), however, had the lowest mortality risk.

Adolescent suicide and health risk behaviors: Rhode Island's 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Yongwen; Perry, Donald K; Hesser, Jana E

2010-05-01

Suicide is the third-leading cause of death among high school students in the U.S. This study examined the relationships among indicators of depressed mood, suicidal thoughts, suicide attempts, and demographics and risk behaviors in Rhode Island high school students. Data from Rhode Island's 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were utilized for this study. The statewide sample contained 2210 randomly selected public high school students. Data were analyzed in 2008 to model for each of five depressed mood/suicide indicators using multivariable logistic regression. By examining depressed mood and suicide indicators through a multivariable approach, the strongest predictors were identified, for multiple as well as specific suicide indicators. These predictors included being female, having low grades, speaking a language other than English at home, being lesbian/gay/bisexual/unsure of sexual orientation, not going to school as a result of feeling unsafe, having been a victim of forced sexual intercourse, being a current cigarette smoker, and having a self-perception of being overweight. The strength of associations between three factors (immigrant status, feeling unsafe, and having forced sex) and suicide indicators adds new information about potential predictors of suicidal behavior in adolescents. 2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Delegated Portfolio Management and Risk Taking Behavior

OpenAIRE

José Luiz Barros Fernandes; Juan Ignacio Peña; Benjamin Miranda Tabak

2009-01-01

Standard models of moral hazard predict a negative relationship between risk and incentives; however empirical studies on mutual funds present mixed results. In this paper, we propose a behavioral principal-agent model in the context of professional managers, focusing on active and passive investment strategies. Using this general framework, we evaluate how incentives affect the risk taking behavior of managers, using the standard moral hazard model as a special case; and solve the previous c...

Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

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Z. Nematollahi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2018-01-01

To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Health Risk Behaviors With Synthetic Cannabinoids Versus Marijuana.

Science.gov (United States)

Clayton, Heather B; Lowry, Richard; Ashley, Carmen; Wolkin, Amy; Grant, Althea M

2017-04-01

Data are limited on the behavioral risk correlates of synthetic cannabinoid use. The purpose of this study was to compare the behavioral risk correlates of synthetic cannabinoid use with those among marijuana users. Data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, a cross-sectional survey conducted in a nationally representative sample of students in grades 9 through 12 ( N = 15 624), were used to examine the association between self-reported type of marijuana use (ie, never use of marijuana and synthetic cannabinoids, ever use of marijuana only, and ever use of synthetic cannabinoids) and self-report of 36 risk behaviors across 4 domains: substance use, injury/violence, mental health, and sexual health. Multivariable models were used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios. Students who ever used synthetic cannabinoids had a significantly greater likelihood of engaging in each of the behaviors in the substance use and sexual risk domains compared with students who ever used marijuana only. Students who ever used synthetic cannabinoids were more likely than students who ever used marijuana only to have used marijuana before age 13 years, to have used marijuana ≥1 times during the past 30 days, and to have used marijuana ≥20 times during the past 30 days. Several injury/violence behaviors were more prevalent among students who ever used synthetic cannabinoids compared with students who ever used marijuana only. Health professionals and school-based substance use prevention programs should include strategies focused on the prevention of both synthetic cannabinoids and marijuana. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia : The effect of communicating risk factors on intended healthy behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bokslag, Anouk; Kroeze, Willemieke; de Groot, Christianne J.M.; Teunissen, Pim W.

Objective: We studied the effect of communicating cardiovascular risk factors on intended healthy behavior in women with a history of preeclampsia or uncomplicated pregnancy. Methods: Intention for healthy behavior was assessed before and after cardiovascular risk assessment. Changes were calculated

Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

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Anne MacKay

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

Estimating the Effectiveness of Health-Risk Communications with Propensity-Score Matching: Application to Arsenic Groundwater Contamination in Four US Locations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J. Leidner

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household’s decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research.

Estimating the Effectiveness of Health-Risk Communications with Propensity-Score Matching: Application to Arsenic Groundwater Contamination in Four US Locations

Science.gov (United States)

Leidner, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household's decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research. PMID:25349622

Chaos, Hubbub, and Order Scale and Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescents in Los Angeles.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Avik; Gillman, Matthew W; Wong, Mitchell D

2015-12-01

To determine the relationship between household chaos and substance use, sexual activity, and violence-related risk behaviors in adolescents. We analyzed cross-sectional data among 929 high-school students in Los Angeles who completed a 90-minute interview that assessed health behaviors and household chaos with the 14-question Chaos, Hubbub, and Order Scale (CHAOS). Using the generalized estimating equation and adjusting for personal, parental, and family covariates, we examined associations of CHAOS score with substance use, sexual activity, and violent behavior outcome variables. We also examined the role of depression and school engagement as mediators. Mean (SD) age of the 929 students was 16.4 (1.3) years, 516 (55%) were female, and 780 (84%) were Latino. After adjustment, compared with students with CHAOS score 0, those students with the greatest scores (5-14) had ORs of 3.1 (95% CI 1.1-8.7) for smoking, 2.6 (95% CI 1.6-4.4) for drinking, 6.1 (95% CI 1.8-21) for substance use at school, and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.3) for fighting in the past 12 months. Associations between CHAOS score and sexual risk and other violent behaviors were not significant. Depression and school engagement attenuated the associations. In this group of adolescents, greatest CHAOS score was associated with increased odds of risky health behaviors, with depression and school engagement as potential mediators. In the future, CHAOS score could be measured to assess risk for such behaviors or be a target for intervention to reduce chances of engaging in these behaviors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Smoking Behaviors among Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Sung Suk; Joung, Kyoung Hwa

2014-01-01

Many students in Korea begin to use tobacco and develop a regular smoking habit before they reach adulthood. Yet, little is known about various signs contributing to the transition of the student smoking behaviors. This study used a national sample to explore and compare risk factors for smoking behaviors. Three types of smoking behaviors were…

Decrease Risk Behavior HIV Infected on Construction Laborers with Behavior Change Communication (BCC Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Purwaningsih Purwaningsih

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of BCC approach to the reduction of contracting HIV risk behavior in the construction laborers. Method: This study used operational research design. In this study measures the effectiveness of behavior change of construction workers on the prevention of HIV transmission by comparing the behavior of the construction workers before and after the intervention. The subjects of this study were 150 people risk group of construction workers who work and are spread throughout the city of Surabaya. This research was carried out into three phases, namely, phase preintervention research, intervention research, and post-intervention phase of the study. Implemented in the first year and second year praintervensi stage implemented intervention and post-intervention phases. Result: The results of this study showed that 72% of construction workers is productive (18–35 years and visit his family more than once a month (38%. There is 20% of construction workers had sex with commercial sex workers and no one was using drugs. By 50% of construction workers never get information about HIV/AIDS and as many as 48% never use the services of HIV/AIDS. Discussion: External motivation construction workers associated with the utilization of behavioral HIV/AIDS services with sufficient correlation. Strong external motivation is influenced by risk behaviors of HIV/AIDS were conducted and the desire to get help. Weak external motivation is influenced by a lack of exposure to information related to HIV/AIDS services. The results of the FGD stakeholders have the perception is the same if a construction worker is a high risk group of contracting HIV. Most of the construction workers not have enough knowledge for the prevention of HIV transmission because they do not have access to HIV care and behavior are at risk of contracting HIV by construction workers. Keywords: construction workers, behavior change communication, behavior

New risk estimates at low doses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fry, R.J.M.

1992-01-01

The age of molecular radiation epidemiology may be at hand. The techniques are available to establish with the degree of precision required to determine whether agent-specific mutations can be identified consistently. A concerted effort to examine radiation-induced changes in as many relevant genes as possible appears to be justified. Cancers in those exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation should be chosen for the investigation. Parallel studies of radiation-induced cancers in experimental animals would not only complement the human studies, but perhaps reveal approaches to extrapolation of risk estimates across species. A caveat should be added to this optimistic view of what molecular studies might contribute to the knotty problem of risk estimates at low doses. The suggestions are made by one with no expertise in the field of molecular biology

Mediation by peer violence victimization of sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related tobacco, alcohol, and sexual risk behaviors: pooled youth risk behavior surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosario, Margaret; Corliss, Heather L; Everett, Bethany G; Russell, Stephen T; Buchting, Francisco O; Birkett, Michelle A

2014-06-01

We examined the role of adolescent peer violence victimization (PVV) in sexual orientation disparities in cancer-related tobacco, alcohol, and sexual risk behaviors. We pooled data from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. We classified youths with any same-sex sexual attraction, partners, or identity as sexual minority and the remainder as heterosexual. We had 4 indicators of tobacco and alcohol use and 4 of sexual risk and 2 PVV factors: victimization at school and carrying weapons. We stratified associations by gender and race/ethnicity. PVV was related to disparities in cancer-related risk behaviors of substance use and sexual risk, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.6) to 11.3 (95% CI = 6.2, 20.8), and to being a sexual minority, with ORs of 1.4 (95% CI = 1.1, 1.9) to 5.6 (95% CI = 3.5, 8.9). PVV mediated sexual orientation disparities in substance use and sexual risk behaviors. Findings were pronounced for adolescent girls and Asian/Pacific Islanders. Interventions are needed to reduce PVV in schools as a way to reduce sexual orientation disparities in cancer risk across the life span.

Sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in young adults

Science.gov (United States)

Benotsch, Eric G.; Snipes, Daniel J.; Martin, Aaron M.; Bull, Sheana S.

2012-01-01

Purpose Cell phone use has become more widespread over the past decade. Young adults are frequently early adopters of new technologies, including cell phones. Most prior research examining sexting, the act of sending sexually explicit or suggestive images via text message, has focused on the legal or social consequences of this behavior. The current study focused on the public health implications of sexting by examining associations between sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in youth. Methods Young adults (N=763) completed online questionnaires assessing demographics, cell phone use (e.g., texting, sexting), substance use, and sexual risk behaviors. Results Sexting was reported by a substantial minority of participants (44%). Compared to their non-sexting counterparts, participants who engaged in sexting were more likely to report recent substance use and high-risk sexual behaviors, including unprotected sex and sex with multiple partners. Of those who engaged in sexting, a considerable percentage (31.8%) reported having sex with a new partner for the first time after sexting with that person. In multivariate analyses, sexting was associated with high-risk sexual behavior after accounting for demographic factors, total texting behaviors, and substance use. Conclusions Results suggest that sexting is robustly associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Many individuals exchange explicit or provocative photos with long-term sexual partners, but at least some participants in this study were incurring new sexual risks subsequent to sexting. Additional research is needed to understand the contexts in which sexting occurs, motivations for sexting, and relationship of sexting to risk behavior. PMID:23299017

Methods to estimate the genetic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehling, U.H.

1989-01-01

The estimation of the radiation-induced genetic risk to human populations is based on the extrapolation of results from animal experiments. Radiation-induced mutations are stochastic events. The probability of the event depends on the dose; the degree of the damage dose not. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of expected frequencies of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The advantage of the indirect method is that not only can Mendelian mutations be quantified, but also other types of genetic disorders. The disadvantages of the method are the uncertainties in determining the current incidence of genetic disorders in human and, in addition, the estimasion of the genetic component of congenital anomalies, anomalies expressed later and constitutional and degenerative diseases. Using the direct method we estimated that 20-50 dominant radiation-induced mutations would be expected in 19 000 offspring born to parents exposed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but only a small proportion of these mutants would have been detected with the techniques used for the population study. These methods were used to predict the genetic damage from the fallout of the reactor accident at Chernobyl in the vicinity of Southern Germany. The lack of knowledge for the interaction of chemicals with ionizing radiation and the discrepancy between the high safety standards for radiation protection and the low level of knowledge for the toxicological evaluation of chemical mutagens will be emphasized. (author)

Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

2000-03-01

A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Probabilistic fuzzy systems in value-at-risk estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2009-01-01

Value-at-risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Owing to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio varies over time. Consequently, advanced methods of VaR estimation use parametric

An interim UK response to revised risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beaver, P.F.; Bines, W.P.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the legal framework in place when the revised risk estimates were announced by the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1987 and how an addition to that framework enabled the revised risk estimates to be taken into account when making decisions about radiation protection practice both at plant and individual worker level. It is suggested that this a may be an early example of the use of a constraint applied generically. (author)

Technical bases for estimating fission product behavior during LWR accidents. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-06-01

The objective of this report is to provide the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public with a description of the best technical information currently available for estimating the release of radioactive material during postulated reactor accidents, and to identify where gaps exist in our knowledge. This report focuses on those low probability-high consequence accidents involving severe damage to the reactor core and core meltdown that dominate the risk to the public. Furthermore, in this report particular emphasis is placed on the accident behavior of radioactive iodine, as (1) radioiodine is predicted to be a major contributor to public exposure, (2) current regulatory accident analysis procedures focus on iodine, and (3) several technical issues have been raised recently about the magnitude of iodine release. The generation, transport, and attenuation of aerosols were also investigated in some detail to assess their effect on fission product release estimates and to determine the performance of engineered safety features under accident conditions exceeding their design bases

Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

1981-09-01

This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

Residual risk over-estimated

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

Sexual risk behaviors among women with bipolar disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, Eliana; Martino, Diego J; Igoa, Ana; Fassi, Guillermo; Scápola, María; Urtueta Baamonde, Mariana; Strejilevich, Sergio A

2015-12-30

The aim of this study was to investigate sexual health and sexual risk behaviors for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among women with bipolar disorder (BDW). Sixty-three euthymic women diagnosed with bipolar disorder type I, II or not otherwise specified were included and matched with a control group of 63 healthy women. Demographic and clinical data, structured sexual health measures and extensive assessment of sexual risk behavior were obtained and compared between groups. BDW had casual partners, were in non-monogamous sexual partnerships and had sex with partners with unknown HIV condition more frequently than healthy control women. History of two or more STI was more frequent among BDW. Inclusion of sexual behavior risk assessment among BDW in treatment is necessary to better identify those women with higher risk for STI and to take measures to improve their sexual health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2017-10-01

assessing behavioral and cognitive markers of risk for suicide among U.S. Army National Guard personnel. Journal of Environmental Research and Public Policy...effective ways to prevent injury and death from suicide • No reliable method for predicting suicide risk in military personnel • Behavioral (e.g...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0632 TITLE: Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Brian

Unwanted online sexual solicitation and online sexual risk behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baumgartner, S.E.; Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.; Yan, Z.

2012-01-01

In recent years, there have been growing concerns about online sexual solicitations and online sexual risk behaviors. Recent studies suggest that only a minority of adolescents is confronted with online sexual solicitations or engages in online sexual risk behavior. Whereas more girls encounter

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during......People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors...

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time...... trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during...... is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

Sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Benotsch, Eric G; Snipes, Daniel J; Martin, Aaron M; Bull, Sheana S

2013-03-01

Cell phone use has become more widespread over the past decade. Young adults are frequently early adopters of new technologies, including cell phones. Most previous research examining sexting, the act of sending sexually explicit or suggestive images via text message, has focused on the legal or social consequences of this behavior. The current study focused on the public health implications of sexting by examining associations between sexting, substance use, and sexual risk behavior in youth. Young adults (N = 763) completed online questionnaires assessing demographics, cell phone use (e.g., texting, sexting), substance use, and sexual risk behaviors. Sexting was reported by a substantial minority of participants (44%). Compared with their nonsexting counterparts, participants who engaged in sexting were more likely to report recent substance use and high-risk sexual behaviors, including unprotected sex and sex with multiple partners. Of those who engaged in sexting, a considerable percentage (31.8%) reported having sex with a new partner for the first time after sexting with that person. In multivariate analyses, sexting was associated with high-risk sexual behavior, after accounting for demographic factors, total texting behaviors, and substance use. Results suggest that sexting is robustly associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Many individuals exchange explicit or provocative photos with long-term sexual partners, but at least some participants in this study were incurring new sexual risks after sexting. Additional research is needed to understand the contexts in which sexting occurs, motivations for sexting, and relationship of sexting to risk behavior. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novice drivers' risky driving behavior, risk perception, and crash risk: findings from the DRIVE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Boufous, Soufiane; Stevenson, Mark; Chen, Huei-Yang; Woodward, Mark; Norton, Robyn

2009-09-01

We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.

Relationships of Pubertal Development among Early Adolescents to Sexual and Nonsexual Risk Behaviors and Caregivers' Parenting Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Helen P.; Rose, Allison; Bhaskar, Brinda; Walker, Leslie R.

2012-01-01

Using a school-based sample of fifth graders (mean age = 10.38, SD = 0.66) and their parents (N = 408) from Washington, D.C., the authors examine associations of pubertal development with early adolescents' sexual and nonsexual risk behaviors and their caregivers' parenting behaviors and of these risk behaviors with parenting behaviors. Results…

Risk and culture: variations in dioxin risk perceptions, behavioral preferences among social groups in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seohyun Park

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study examined variations in the perceptions of dioxin risk among social groups defined by geographical living location, environmental education, and occupation. Dioxin risk perceptions were analyzed according to values, risk awareness, knowledge, and behavioral preferences. Methods A quasi-experimental survey was designed and conducted on individuals from seven experimental groups in Jeonju city, South Korea, including: people living near incineration facilities; people living far from incineration facilities; governmental experts; nongovernmental organization members; office workers in developmental institutes or banks; students who were enrolled in environmental-related classes; and students who were enrolled in business-related classes. Results The results show variations among groups in values, awareness and behavioral preferences. Particular attention should be given to the result that groups with higher connectedness- to-nature values show higher willingness-to-act (WTA for risk reduction. Result s can be summarized as follows. First, awareness is associated with one’s geographical setting. Second, values and WTA behaviors are related to one’s environmental-related education and occupation. Third, values are significantly related to WTA behaviors. Conclusions Different cultures, in terms of values or worldview, among groups influence their perceptions of dioxin risk and choices of risk reduction behaviors. It is important to consider values in communicating complicated long-term risk management involving public participation. Further research should be continuously conducted on the effects of multiple dimensions of values on one’s WTA for risk reduction behaviors.

Supportive relationships and sexual risk behavior in adolescence: an ecological-transactional approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Henrich, Christopher C; Brookmeyer, Kathryn A; Shrier, Lydia A; Shahar, Golan

2006-04-01

To examine the longitudinal associations between supportive relationships with friends and parents and sexual risk behavior in adolescence based on an ecological-transactional perspective. Analyses were conducted on 2,652 sexually active adolescents from the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). African-American adolescents had lower risk for sexual risk behavior. Supportive friendships and parent connectedness interacted in predicting decreased likelihood of sexual risk behavior. Mother-child communication about sex contributed to decreased likelihood of sexual risk only for girls. There were also small reciprocal effects of sexual risk behavior on decreased relationship quality over time. To better understand the parents' role in adolescent sexual risk behavior, multiple facets of parenting, the social contexts of parenting and adolescents' peers, and the effects of adolescents' behavior on these relationships should be taken into consideration.

Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

1984-01-01

No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports

Applying the reasoned action approach to understanding health protection and health risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Conner, Mark; McEachan, Rosemary; Lawton, Rebecca; Gardner, Peter

2017-12-01

The Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) developed out of the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior but has not yet been widely applied to understanding health behaviors. The present research employed the RAA in a prospective design to test predictions of intention and action for groups of protection and risk behaviors separately in the same sample. To test the RAA for health protection and risk behaviors. Measures of RAA components plus past behavior were taken in relation to eight protection and six risk behaviors in 385 adults. Self-reported behavior was assessed one month later. Multi-level modelling showed instrumental attitude, experiential attitude, descriptive norms, capacity and past behavior were significant positive predictors of intentions to engage in protection or risk behaviors. Injunctive norms were only significant predictors of intention in protection behaviors. Autonomy was a significant positive predictor of intentions in protection behaviors and a negative predictor in risk behaviors (the latter relationship became non-significant when controlling for past behavior). Multi-level modelling showed that intention, capacity, and past behavior were significant positive predictors of action for both protection and risk behaviors. Experiential attitude and descriptive norm were additional significant positive predictors of risk behaviors. The RAA has utility in predicting both protection and risk health behaviors although the power of predictors may vary across these types of health behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teacher Behavioral Practices: Relations to Student Risk Behaviors, Learning Barriers, and School Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Andrew; Mcmahon, Susan D.; Coker, Crystal; Keys, Christopher B.

2016-01-01

Student behavioral problems pose a myriad of challenges for schools. In this study, we examine the relations among teacher and school-level constructs (i.e., teacher collaboration, supervision/discipline, instructional management), and student-related outcomes (i.e., high-risk behaviors, barriers to learning, student social-behavioral climate).…

Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

Science.gov (United States)

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

2014-01-01

Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

Conditional economic incentives for reducing HIV risk behaviors: integration of psychology and behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Gálarraga, Omar

2013-09-01

This article reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories and behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Examining relationships between multiple health risk behaviors, well-being, and productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Evers, Kerry E; Castle, Patricia H; Prochaska, James O; Prochaska, Janice M

2014-06-01

Traditionally, the concept of health promotion has emphasized the reduction of health risk behaviors to reduce disease and impairment. Well-being research expands this focus to include positive constructs such as thriving, productivity, life-evaluation, and emotional and physical health. The objective of the present study was to examine the relationships between health risk behaviors and specific measures of individual well-being. Participants (N = 790) from 49 states completed a one-time online assessment that included the Life-Evaluation Index, Emotional and Physical Health Ladders, the Health Risk Intervention Assessment, and the Work Productivity and Activity Improvement Questionnaire for General Health. Life Evaluation and physical and emotional health were all inversely related to the number of health risk behaviors, with higher well-being scores associated with lower number of risk behaviors. Across the three Life Evaluation categories (Suffering, Struggling, and Thriving) the number of health risk behaviors decreased, productivity loss decreased, and emotional and physical health increased. The results add to previous research on how reducing multiple health risk behaviors can be combined with well-being, i.e., an emphasis on increasing life-evaluation, emotional and physical health, better functioning, and productivity.

Predicting Young Adults Binge Drinking in Nightlife Scenes: An Evaluation of the D-ARIANNA Risk Estimation Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Crocamo, Cristina; Bartoli, Francesco; Montomoli, Cristina; Carrà, Giuseppe

2018-05-25

Binge drinking (BD) among young people has significant public health implications. Thus, there is the need to target users most at risk. We estimated the discriminative accuracy of an innovative model nested in a recently developed e-Health app (Digital-Alcohol RIsk Alertness Notifying Network for Adolescents and young adults [D-ARIANNA]) for BD in young people, examining its performance to predict short-term BD episodes. We consecutively recruited young adults in pubs, discos, or live music events. Participants self-administered the app D-ARIANNA, which incorporates an evidence-based risk estimation model for the dependent variable BD. They were re-evaluated after 2 weeks using a single-item BD behavior as reference. We estimated D-ARIANNA discriminative ability through measures of sensitivity and specificity, and also likelihood ratios. ROC curve analyses were carried out, exploring variability of discriminative ability across subgroups. The analyses included 507 subjects, of whom 18% reported at least 1 BD episode at follow-up. The majority of these had been identified as at high/moderate or high risk (65%) at induction. Higher scores from the D-ARIANNA risk estimation model reflected an increase in the likelihood of BD. Additional risk factors such as high pocket money availability and alcohol expectancies influence the predictive ability of the model. The D-ARIANNA model showed an appreciable, though modest, predictive ability for subsequent BD episodes. Post-hoc model showed slightly better predictive properties. Using up-to-date technology, D-ARIANNA appears an innovative and promising screening tool for BD among young people. Long-term impact remains to be established, and also the role of additional social and environmental factors.

Risk and Protective Factors for Difficulty Controlling Violent Behavior in National Guard and Reserve Service Members.

Science.gov (United States)

Worthen, Miranda; Rathod, Sujit D; Cohen, Gregory; Sampson, Laura; Ursano, Robert; Gifford, Robert; Fullerton, Carol; Galea, Sandro; Ahern, Jennifer

2017-11-01

Violent behavior is an important problem for military service members and veterans. A representative cohort of U.S. Reserve and National Guard personnel ( N = 1,293) were interviewed to assess self-reported problems controlling violent behavior, deployment traumas, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), alcohol abuse, and social support. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the associations of violent behavior with risk and protective factors. Problems controlling violent behavior were uncommon among male (3.3%) and female (1.7%) service members. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) showed associations between violent behavior and deployment traumas (aPR = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [1.34, 2.08]), PTSD (aPR = 9.95, 95% CI = [5.09, 19.48]), and PTSD symptom severity (aPR for each additional PTSD symptom = 1.07, 95% CI = [1.06, 1.09]). Social support was associated with lower prevalence of violent behavior (aPR = 0.62, 95% CI = [0.52, 0.76]). The association between violent behavior and alcohol abuse was not statistically significant (aPR = 1.94, 95% CI = [0.92, 4.09]). Results were consistent when the population was restricted to personnel who had deployed to a war zone. Problems controlling violent behavior were less common in this cohort than has been documented in other studies. Associations of violent behavior with risk and protective factors are consistent with prior research.

Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

1990-01-01

Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dankar Fida

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

Sexual behavior, risk perception, and HIV transmission can respond to HIV antiviral drugs and vaccines through multiple pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Tully, Stephen; Cojocaru, Monica; Bauch, Chris T.

2015-01-01

There has been growing use of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) for HIV and significant progress in developing prophylactic HIV vaccines. The simplest theories of counterproductive behavioral responses to such interventions tend to focus on single feedback mechanisms: for instance, HAART optimism makes infection less scary and thus promotes risky sexual behavior. Here, we develop an agent based, age-structured model of HIV transmission, risk perception, and partner selection in a core group to explore behavioral responses to interventions. We find that interventions can activate not one, but several feedback mechanisms that could potentially influence decision-making and HIV prevalence. In the model, HAART increases the attractiveness of unprotected sex, but it also increases perceived risk of infection and, on longer timescales, causes demographic impacts that partially counteract HAART optimism. Both HAART and vaccination usually lead to lower rates of unprotected sex on the whole, but intervention effectiveness depends strongly on whether individuals over- or under-estimate intervention coverage. Age-specific effects cause sexual behavior and HIV prevalence to change in opposite ways in old and young age groups. For complex infections like HIV—where interventions influence transmission, demography, sexual behavior and risk perception—we conclude that evaluations of behavioral responses should consider multiple feedback mechanisms. PMID:26507957

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pere P Simarro

Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Estimation of second primary cancers risk based on the treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Chufeng; Sun Guangyao; Liu Hui; Zheng Huaqing; Cheng Mengyun; Li Gui; Wu Yican; FDS Team

2011-01-01

Estimates of second primary cancers risk after radiotherapy has become increasingly important for comparative treatment planning. A new method based on the treatment planning system to estimate the risk of second primary cancers was introduced in this paper. Using the Advanced/Accurate Radiotherapy Treatment System(ARTS), a treatment planning system developed by the FDS team,the risk of second primary cancer was estimated over two treatment plans for a patient with pancreatic cancer. Based on the second primary cancer risk, the two plans were compared. It was found that,kidney and gall-bladder had higher risk to develop second primary cancer. A better plan was chosen by the analysis of second primary cancer risk. The results showed that this risk estimation method we developed could be used to evaluate treatment plans. (authors)

Sexting, Risk Behavior, and Mental Health in Adolescents: An Examination of 2015 Pennsylvania Youth Risk Behavior Survey Data

Science.gov (United States)

Frankel, Anne S.; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Patterson, Freda; Dai, Ting; Brown, Deanna

2018-01-01

Background: Sexting, the sharing of sexually suggestive photos, may be a gateway behavior to early sexual activity and increase the likelihood of social ostracism. Methods: Youth Risk Behavior Survey (N = 6021) data from 2015 among Pennsylvania 9th-12th grade students were used to examine associations between consensual and nonconsensual sexting…

Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huda, W.; He, W.

2012-01-01

The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics. (authors)

Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haenninen, Otto; Brueske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

2010-01-01

Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles ( -1 ; particle number 1.1-3.1 x 10 9 d -1 ) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 x 10 -6 , but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

INSTRUMENTS OF HIGH RISK SEXUAL BEHAVIOR ASSESSMENT: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzaei, Mojtaba; Ahmadi, Khodabakhsh; Saadat, Seyed-Hassan; Ramezani, Mohammad Arash

2016-02-01

Sexual behavior is a complex activity affecting all aspects of human's life. Risky sexual behaviors impose negative outcomes on family, relationships and health. Unsafe sex is the second most leading cause of disability adjusted life years worldwide. Valid and reliable tools for assessment of risky sexual behaviors are necessary for implementing preventive measures. we searched Medline and the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews, with the keywords of "risky sexual behavior assessment", "sexual risk assessment", "high risk sexual behavior", "sexual risk taking". By reviewing references of the articles, some complementary studies were added. Assessment can be performed by questionnaire or non-questionnaire instruments. Questionnaires vary depending on their target population, evaluation of risky sexual behavior as a whole or focusing on an associated risk factor. In order to avoid usual biases in self reports, objective biomarker assessment of unprotected sex are employed. These markers include prostate specific antigen, chromosome Y DNA and Seminogelin. Risky sexual behavior can be assessed by various subjective and objective methods. While self-reports are more feasible, objective methods offer a higher degree of reliability. Further studies for finding more feasible methods of using biomarkers are recommended.

Intelligent method of plant dynamics behavior estimation by effectively applying similar cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gofuku, Akio; Numoto, Atsushi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu

1994-01-01

In order to accomplish efficient execution of a dynamic simulation of engineering systems, it is important to construct suitable mathematical models for the simulation. In the construction of the mathematical models, it is necessary to estimate the system's behavior to suppose the phenomena which are needed to be modeled. The case-based reasoning is considered to be a powerful tool to estimate the outline of system's behavior because we often estimate it from the similar cases which are stored as our experience or in literature. In this study, the technique based on similar cases is investigated to estimate the outline of time-responses of several important variables of pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants at a small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA). The registered cases in case base are gathered from various reports and the authors' numerical simulations related with SBLOCA of PWR plants. The functions to use in the case retrieval are formed from the characteristic features of SBLOCA of PWR plants. On the other hand, the rules to use in the case refinement are obtained from the qualitative and quantitative consideration of plants' behaviors of the cases in the case base. The applicability of the technique is discussed by two simple estimation trials of plant behavior. (author)

Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

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Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-11-01

To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

False consensus and adolescent peer contagion: examining discrepancies between perceptions and actual reported levels of friends' deviant and health risk behaviors.

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Prinstein, Mitchell J; Wang, Shirley S

2005-06-01

Adolescents' perceptions of their friends' behavior strongly predict adolescents' own behavior, however, these perceptions often are erroneous. This study examined correlates of discrepancies between adolescents' perceptions and friends' reports of behavior. A total of 120 11th-grade adolescents provided data regarding their engagement in deviant and health risk behaviors, as well as their perceptions of the behavior of their best friend, as identified through sociometric assessment. Data from friends' own report were used to calculate discrepancy measures of adolescents' overestimations and estimation errors (absolute value of discrepancies) of friends' behavior. Adolescents also completed a measure of friendship quality, and a sociometric assessment yielding measures of peer acceptance/rejection and aggression. Findings revealed that adolescents' peer rejection and aggression were associated with greater overestimations of friends' behavior. This effect was partially mediated by adolescents' own behavior, consistent with a false consensus effect. Low levels of positive friendship quality were significantly associated with estimation errors, but not overestimations specifically.

Methodology development for estimating support behavior of spacer grid spring in core

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Kyung Ho; Kang, Heung Seok; Kim, Hyung Kyu; Song, Kee Nam

1998-04-01

The fuel rod (FR) support behavior is changed during operation resulting from effects such as clad creep-down, spring force relaxation due to irradiation, and irradiation growth of spacer straps in accordance with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with FR damage due to fretting, therefore the analysis on the FR support behavior is normally required to minimize the damage. The characteristics of the parameters, which affect the FR support behavior, and the methodology developed for estimating the FR support behavior in the reactor core are described in this work. The FR support condition for the KOFA (KOrean Fuel Assembly) fuel has been analyzed by this method, and the results of the analysis show that the fuel failure due to the fuel rod fretting wear is closely related to the support behavior of FR in the core. Therefore, the present methodology for estimating the FR support condition seems to be useful for estimating the actual FR support condition. In addition, the optimization seems to be a reliable tool for establishing the optimal support condition on the basis of these results. (author). 15 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

Prevalence of bovine brucellosis and related risk behavior in the suburban area of Dakar, Senegal

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D. Tialla

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and the frequency of risk behaviors in the zoonotic transmission of bovine brucellosis in suburban Dakar. The individual serological status of 300 cattle distributed in thirty farms in this area was determined by the rose Bengal and complement fixation tests. The frequency of risk behaviors toward this zoonosis was determined using two epidemiological surveys that inventoried the known risk factors of brucellosis transmission between animals and humans. Taking into account the sensitivity and specificity of rose Bengal and complement fixation tests used in series, i.e. 85% and 98.75 %, respectively, the true prevalence was estimated to be 36.36%. At least one animal was infected in 96.6% of the herds. Positivity to the complement fixation test was significantly associated with age, breed, abortion and the presence of bursitis in cattle. The risk behaviors the most frequently observed in humans in this area were: assisting during calving and abortion, handling of aborted fetuses without gloves, and consuming unpasteurized raw or curd milk and fresh cheese. These results show that brucellosis is present in dairy cattle farms in suburban Dakar. Since the milk produced in these farms is used to supply the city of Dakar, measures must be developed to promote brucellosis prevention methods aimed at Dakar’s population.

Reducing sexual risk behavior among high-risk couples in Northern India.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Deborah; Bagga, Rashmi; Nehra, Ritu; Deepika; Sethi, Sunil; Walia, Kamini; Kumar, Mahendra; Villar-Loubet, Olga; Lopez, Maria; Weiss, Stephen M

2013-09-01

With a population of 1.1 billion, India is considered to be a country in which effective prevention interventions could contain the development of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 85 % of the extant HIV infections. This study sought to assess the feasibility of conducting a group, culturally tailored behavioral intervention and its impact on sexual barrier use, self-efficacy, knowledge, conflict resolution, and coping among high-risk heterosexual couples in Northern India. This pilot study was conducted at the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh, India from February 2008 to January 2009. Thirty sexually active high-risk couples were drawn from a convenience sample of PGIMER patients attending infectious disease and family planning clinics. Couples participated in 1 month of three weekly gender-concordant behavioral intervention groups and were individually administered assessments preintervention and post-intervention. The intervention was tailored to the Northern Indian context and addressed sexual barrier use, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/sexually transmitted infection transmission, and cognitive behavioral skill building focusing on sexual negotiation and communication. The participants had a mean age of 32 years (men) and 29 years (women), and the majority had at least 10 years of education. At baseline, the majority reported inconsistent condom use (knowledge, and women increased their use of positive coping tactics. The results highlight the potential to successfully utilize a group intervention to discuss sensitive issues such as sexual risk behavior among both men and women. Strategies to improve condom use and communication without increasing intimate partner violence in high-risk couples may be an important adjunct to preventing the development of a generalized epidemic in India.

HIV-Risk Behaviors and Social Support Among Men and Women Attending Alcohol-Serving Venues in South Africa: Implications for HIV Prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Velloza, Jennifer; Watt, Melissa H; Abler, Laurie; Skinner, Donald; Kalichman, Seth C; Dennis, Alexis C; Sikkema, Kathleen J

2017-11-01

Alcohol use is associated with increased HIV-risk behaviors, including unprotected sex and number of sex partners. Alcohol-serving venues can be places to engage in HIV-related sexual risk behaviors, but are also important sites of social support for patrons, which may mitigate risks. We sought to examine the relationship between alcohol-serving venue attendance, social support, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior, by gender, in South Africa. Adult patrons (n = 496) were recruited from six alcohol-serving venues and completed surveys assessing frequency of venue attendance, venue-based social support, and recent sexual behaviors. Generalized estimating equations tested associations between daily venue attendance, social support, and sexual behaviors, separately by gender. Interaction effects between daily attendance and social support were assessed. Models were adjusted for venue, age, education, and ethnicity. Daily attendance at venues was similar across genders and was associated with HIV-related risk behaviors, but the strength and direction of associations differed by gender. Among women, daily attendance was associated with greater number of partners and higher proportion of unprotected sex. Social support was a significant moderator, with more support decreasing the strength of the relationship between attendance and risk. Among men, daily attendance was associated with a lower proportion of unprotected sex; no interaction effects were found for attendance and social support. Frequent venue attendance is associated with additional HIV-related risks for women, but this risk is mitigated by social support in venues. These results were not seen for men. Successful HIV interventions in alcohol-serving venues should address the gendered context of social support and sexual risk behavior.

Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro

1981-01-01

The genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemia significant dose (LSD) and malignancy significant dose (MSD) from medical diagnostic X-ray examinations in Japan were estimated based on a 1979 nationwide survey of randomly sampled hospitals and clinics. The population risk estimates were carried out using the resultant values of GSD, LSD and MSD. In the risk estimates, the significant factors, namely, the relative child expectancy, the leukemia significant factor and the malignancy significant factor, for patients were assumed to be same as those of general population. The risk factors used were 185 x 10 -6 rad -1 for genetic risk of all generations, 20 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal leukemia and 165 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal malignant diseases, respectively. The resultant annual population doses per person were 15 mrad (0.15 mGy) for GSD, 107 mrad (1.07 mGy) for CMD, 86 mrad (0.86 mGy) for LSD and 43 mrad (0.43 mGy) for MSD, respectively. The present data other than the MSD were compared with the data in 1960, 1969 and 1974. For example, the GSD of 1979 was approximately same as that of 1974, although the annual number of examinations in 1979 increased by about 30 percent as compared with those of 1974. The population risks from X-ray diagnosis were estimated to be 260 persons per year for genetic risk of all generations, 192 person per year for fatal leukemic risk and 825 person per year for malignant risk, respectively, for the whole population in Japan, assuming that the X-ray diagnosis in 1979 will be performed continuously in the future. The average risks per one exposure for X-ray radiography were estimated using the weighted average of the significant factor and the organ or tissue dose with the number of radiographic exposures by age and by type of examination. The average risks per radiographic exposure were 176 x 10 -9 for genetic risk, 285 x 10 -9 for leukemic risk and 1.75 x 10 -6 for malignant risk respectively. (author)

Association of maltreatment with high-risk internet behaviors and offline encounters.

Science.gov (United States)

Noll, Jennie G; Shenk, Chad E; Barnes, Jaclyn E; Haralson, Katherine J

2013-02-01

High-risk Internet behaviors, including viewing sexually explicit content, provocative social networking profiles, and entertaining online sexual solicitations, were examined in a sample of maltreated and nonmaltreated adolescent girls aged 14 to 17 years. The impact of Internet behaviors on subsequent offline meetings was observed over 12 to 16 months. This study tested 2 main hypotheses: (1) maltreatment would be a unique contributor to high-risk Internet behaviors and (2) high-quality parenting would dampen adolescents' propensity to engage in high-risk Internet behaviors and to participate in offline meetings. Online and offline behaviors and parenting quality were gleaned from 251 adolescent girls, 130 of whom experienced substantiated maltreatment and 121 of whom were demographically matched comparison girls. Parents reported on adolescent behaviors and on the level of Internet monitoring in the home. Social networking profiles were objectively coded for provocative self-presentations. Offline meetings with persons first met online were assessed 12 to 16 months later. Thirty percent of adolescents reported having offline meetings. Maltreatment, adolescent behavioral problems, and low cognitive ability were uniquely associated with high-risk Internet behaviors. Exposure to sexual content, creating high-risk social networking profiles, and receiving online sexual solicitations were independent predictors of subsequent offline meetings. High-quality parenting and parental monitoring moderated the associations between adolescent risk factors and Internet behaviors, whereas use of parental control software did not. Treatment modalities for maltreated adolescents should be enhanced to include Internet safety literacy. Adolescents and parents should be aware of how online self-presentations and other Internet behaviors can increase vulnerability for Internet-initiated victimization.

MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radik B. Begov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Depression and HIV risk behavior practices among at risk women.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Hugh; Elifson, Kirk W; Sterk, Claire E

2008-01-01

In this study, we examined the relationship between depression and HIV-related risk behavior practices in a sample of 250 at risk, predominantly African American women living in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area. Interviews were conducted between August 1997 and August 2000. Street outreach efforts were used to identify potential study participants, with further expansion of the sample via targeted sampling and ethnographic mapping procedures. Our conceptual model hypothesized a relationship between depression and HIV risk in which depression and condom-related attitudes were construed as intervening (or mediating) variables. A multivariate analysis was used to determine the relationship between depression and women's risk behaviors. The results showed that depression was a key-mediating variable, having its primary influence on women's risky practices through its impact upon their attitudes toward using condoms. Factors associated with depression, included religiosity, closeness of family relationships, financial problems, childhood maltreatment experiences, and drug-related problems. The implications of these findings for prevention and intervention efforts are: (1) heightening faith community involvement and religious participation to decrease depression; (2) working with women whose familial bonds are in need of strengthening to combat depression; (3) providing mental health and counseling services to women who were emotionally and/or sexually abused during their formative years seems to help these women to recover from unresolved issues that may be fueling depression; (4) assisting at risk women who need training in money management issues to minimize their risk for depression; and (5) helping women drug abusers to receive treatment for their drug problems to combat their depression and lower their HIV risk.

A TWO-WAY ROAD: RATES OF HIV INFECTION AND BEHAVIORAL RISK FACTORS AMONG DEPORTED MEXICAN LABOR MIGRANTS

Science.gov (United States)

Rangel, M. Gudelia; Martinez-Donate, Ana P.; Hovell, Melbourne; Sipan, Carol L.; Zellner, Jennifer A.; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, Eduardo; Kelley, Norma J.; Asadi-Gonzalez, Ahmed; Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

2012-01-01

A large number of Mexican migrants are deported to Mexico and released in the North Mexican border region every year. Despite their volume and high vulnerability, little is known about the level of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among this hard-to-reach population. We conducted a cross-sectional, probability survey with deported Mexican migrants in Tijuana, Mexico (N=693) and estimated levels of HIV infection and behavioral risk factors among this migrant flow. The sample and population estimated rates of HIV for deported males were 1.23% and 0.80%, respectively. No positive cases were found among the female sample. We found high lifetime rates of reported sexually transmitted infections (22.3%) and last 12-months rates of unprotected sex (63.0%), sex with multiple sexual partners (18.1%), casual partners (25.7%), and sex workers (8.6%), compared to U.S. and Mexico adults. HIV prevention, testing, and treatment programs for this large, vulnerable, and transnational population need to be implemented in both the U.S. and Mexico. PMID:22562390

Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

2013-01-01

Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolphin, G.W.

1979-01-01

The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

Sexting behaviors among young Hispanic women: incidence and association with other high-risk sexual behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, Christopher J

2011-09-01

Several legal cases in the United States in which adolescents were charged with child pornography distribution after sharing nude photographs of themselves with romantic partners or others have highlighted the issue of sexting behaviors among youth. Although policy makers, mental health workers, educators and parents have all expressed concern regarding the potential harm of sexting behaviors, little to no research has examined this phenomenon empirically. The current study presents some preliminary data on the incidence of sexting behavior and associated high risk sexual behaviors in a sample of 207 predominantly Hispanic young women age 16-25. Approximately 20% of young women reported engaging in sexting behavior. Sexting behaviors were not associated with most other high-risk sexual behaviors, but were slightly more common in women who found sex to be highly pleasurable or who displayed histrionic personality traits.

Sadness, suicide, and drug misuse in Arkansas: results from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaley, Sean; Mancino, Michael J; Messias, Erick

2014-02-01

Exposure to drugs is unfortunately common among high school students and its use has been linked to depression and suicide risk. We used the 2011 Arkansas Youth Risk Behavior Survey to estimate the prevalence of drug abuse and to measure its association with teen suicidality. Three types of substance misuse were reported by more than 10% of Arkansas high school students: cannabis (33.3% ever use). inhalants (18.7% ever use). and prescription drugs without a prescription (13.2% ever use). We found in all suicide outcomes a stronger association with prescription drug abuse, followed by inhalant abuse, then cannabis abuse.

Covariance among multiple health risk behaviors in adolescents.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kayla de la Haye

Full Text Available In a diverse group of early adolescents, this study explores the co-occurrence of a broad range of health risk behaviors: alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use; physical inactivity; sedentary computing/gaming; and the consumption of low-nutrient energy-dense food. We tested differences in the associations of unhealthy behaviors over time, and by gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.Participants were 8360 students from 16 middle schools in California (50% female; 52% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 16% White, and 15% Black/multiethnic/other. Behaviors were measured with surveys in Spring 2010 and Spring 2011. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess if an underlying factor accounted for the covariance of multiple behaviors, and composite reliability methods were used to determine the degree to which behaviors were related.The measured behaviors were explained by two moderately correlated factors: a 'substance use risk factor' and an 'unhealthy eating and sedentary factor'. Physical inactivity did not reflect the latent factors as expected. There were few differences in the associations among these behaviors over time or by demographic characteristics.Two distinct, yet related groups of health compromising behaviors were identified that could be jointly targeted in multiple health behavior change interventions among early adolescents of diverse backgrounds.

Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

Science.gov (United States)

Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

2014-02-01

Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cancer risk estimation from the A-bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierce, D.A.; Vaeth, M.

1989-10-01

Generalizations regarding radiogenic cancer risks from the A-bomb survivor data of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation involve a large number of well-identified uncertainties and approximations. These include extrapolation to low doses and dose rates, projections in time, sampling variation, the quality of the data, extrapolation to other populations, and the use of simplifying conventions. This paper discusses some of these issues, with emphasis on the first three. Results are given regarding the maximum 'linear-quadratic' curvature consistent with these data, taking into account uncertainties in individual exposure estimates. Discussion is given regarding use of relative risk models and projection of lifetime risks, emphasizing results for those who were old enough at exposure to have been followed up for a major part of their lives by now, and stressing the speculative aspects of conclusions about those exposed as children. Combining these results, and brief discussion of other uncertainties itemized above, comment is made on the evolution of risk estimates over the past 15 years. (author)

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: Familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.J.M. Buschgens (Cathelijne); M.A.G. van Aken (Marcel); S.H.N. Swinkels (Sophie); J. Ormel (Johan Hans); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

2015-01-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

Behavior is a major determinant of predation risk in zooplankton

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Almeda, Rodrigo; van Someren Gréve, Hans; Kiørboe, Thomas

2017-01-01

as prey for different predatory copepods. Copepods with “active” feeding behaviors (feeding-current and cruising feeders) showed significantly higher mortality from predation (~2–8 times) than similarly sized copepods with low motility feeding behavior (ambush feeders). Copepod males, which have a more...... active motile behavior than females (mate-seeking behavior), suffered a higher predation mortality than females in most of the experiments. However, the predation risk for mate-searching behavior in copepods varied depending on feeding behavior with ambush feeders consistently having the greatest......Zooplankton exhibit different small-scale motile behaviors related to feeding and mating activities. These different motile behaviors may result in different levels of predation risk, which may partially determine the structure of planktonic communities. Here, we experimentally determined predation...

Health risk behavior among Thai youth: national survey 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Sirirassamee, Tawima; Sirirassamee, Buppha

2015-01-01

This study aims to establish the prevalence of risky health behaviors among Thai youth and to characterize the prevalence of these behaviors by gender, age group, educational status, and region. We analyzed data from a population-based, nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of 938 youth aged between 13 and 24 years, sampled from Bangkok and 4 regions of Thailand. The 2011 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System questionnaire was used to measure youth risk behaviors. This study finds that 15.9% of respondents had engaged in physical fights, and 8.1% had been cyber bullied. The prevalence of current cigarette smoking, alcohol, and marijuana use were 22.3%, 27.9%, and 2.3%, respectively. The prevalence of risky behaviors among Thai youth were found to be high, including behaviors that contribute to unintentional injuries and violence, unsafe sexual behaviors, and cigarette and alcohol consumption. © 2014 APJPH.

Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

2015-01-01

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

Estimating active transportation behaviors to support health impact assessment in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theodore J Mansfield

2016-05-01

avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 minutes per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods. The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas.

Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Mansfield, Theodore J; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2016-01-01

population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas.

High-Risk Driving Behaviors among Adolescent Binge-Drinkers

Science.gov (United States)

Marcotte, Thomas D.; Bekman, Nicole M.; Meyer, Rachel A.; Brown, Sandra A.

2013-01-01

Background Binge drinking is common among adolescents. Alcohol use, and binge-drinking in particular, has been associated with neurocognitive deficits as well as risk-taking behaviors, which may contribute to negative driving outcomes among adolescents even while sober. Objectives To examine differences in self-reported driving behaviors between adolescent binge-drinkers and a matched sample of controls, including (a) compliance with graduated licensing laws, (b) high risk driving behaviors, and (c) driving outcomes (crashes, traffic tickets). Methods The present study examined driving behaviors and outcomes in adolescent recent binge drinkers (n=21) and demographically and driving history matched controls (n=17), ages 16-18. Results Binge drinkers more frequently violated graduated licensing laws (e.g., driving late at night), and engaged in more “high risk” driving behaviors, such as speeding and using a cell-phone while driving. Binge drinkers had more traffic tickets, crashes and “near crashes” than the control group. In a multivariate analysis, binge drinker status and speeding were the most robust predictors of a crash. Conclusion Binge drinking teens consistently engage in more dangerous driving behaviors and experience more frequent crashes and traffic tickets. They are also less compliant with preventative restrictions placed on youth while they are learning critical safe driving skills. Scientific Significance These findings highlight a need to examine the contribution of underlying traits (such as sensation seeking) and binge-related cognitive changes to these high-risk driving behaviors, which may assist researchers in establishing alternative prevention and policy efforts targeting this population. PMID:22324748

Child Sexual Abuse and Negative Affect as Shared Risk Factors for Sexual Aggression and Sexual HIV Risk Behavior in Heterosexual Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Zoё D; Janssen, Erick; Goodrich, David; Fortenberry, J Dennis; Hensel, Devon J; Heiman, Julia R

2018-02-01

Previous research has suggested that sexually aggressive behavior and sexual HIV risk behavior are associated. Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) is a well-established risk factor for both types of problematic sexual behavior. Negative affect (i.e., anxiety, depression, and anger) is a less well-studied risk factor, but it has been theorized to relate to both sexual aggression and HIV risk behavior. Thus, this study sought to (1) confirm the relationship between sexual aggression and HIV risk behavior, (2) establish CSA and negative affect as shared risk factors for sexual aggression and HIV risk behavior, and (3) evaluate whether negative affect mediates the relationship between CSA and sexual aggression and between CSA and HIV sexual risk in a sample of heterosexual men. We recruited 18- to 30-year-old heterosexual men (N = 377) from urban sexually transmitted infection clinics. Men completed measures of sexual HIV risk history (number of partners and condom use), sexual aggression history, CSA history, and trait negative affect (anger, anxiety, and depression). Structural equation modeling was used to examine hypothesized direct and indirect relationships. In the final SEM model, sexual aggression history and sexual HIV risk behavior were correlated. CSA was associated with both types of problematic sexual behavior. Anxiety significantly mediated the relationship between CSA and sexual aggression and between CSA and sexual HIV risk behavior (χ 2 [1300] = 2121.79, p Sexual aggression appears to be part of a constellation of sexual risk behaviors; thus, it may be possible to develop prevention programs that target both sexual HIV risk and sexual aggression. CSA is a shared risk factor for sexual aggression and HIV risk behavior through the pathway of anxiety. Thus, anxiety might be one promising target for intervention.

Influence of Social Stress on Risk-Taking Behavior in Adolescents

OpenAIRE

Reynolds, Elizabeth K.; Schreiber, Whitney M.; Geisel, Kathy; MacPherson, Laura; Ernst, Monique; Lejuez, C. W.

2013-01-01

Risk-taking behavior involves making choices with uncertain positive or negative outcomes. Evidence suggests that risk-taking behavior is influenced by emotional state. One such emotional experience is social anxiety, which has been related to both risk-avoidant and risk-seeking decision making. The present study examined a community sample of 34 adolescents grouped into low (Low SA Group) and high (High SA Group) social anxiety (SA). Both groups were compared on changes in performance on a r...

Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Shanklin, Shari; Lim, Connie; Grunbaum, Jo Anne; Wechsler, Howell

2006-01-01

In the United States, 71% of all deaths among persons aged 10-24 years result from 4 causes: motor vehicle crashes, other unintentional injuries, homicide, and suicide. Results from the 2005 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) indicated that during the 30 days preceding the survey, many high school students engaged in behaviors that…

Actual versus perceived peer sexual risk behavior in online youth social networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Sandra R; Schmiege, Sarah; Bull, Sheana

2013-09-01

Perception of peer behaviors is an important predictor of actual risk behaviors among youth. However, we lack understanding of peer influence through social media and of actual and perceived peer behavior concordance. The purpose of this research is to document the relationship between individual perception of and actual peer sexual risk behavior using online social networks. The data are a result of a secondary analysis of baseline self-reported and peer-reported sexual risk behavior from a cluster randomized trial including 1,029 persons from 162 virtual networks. Individuals (seeds) recruited up to three friends who then recruited additional friends, extending three waves from the seed. ANOVA models compared network means of actual participant behavior across categories of perceived behavior. Concordance varied between reported and perceived behavior, with higher concordance between perceived and reported condom use, multiple partners, concurrent partners, sexual pressure, and drug and alcohol use during sex. Individuals significantly over-reported risk and under-reported protective peer behaviors related to sex.

An estimation method for basemat uplift behavior of NPP buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, N.; Ino, S.; Kurimoto, O.; Miake, M.

2005-01-01

It is important to accurately estimate the effects of strong earthquake motions on the basemat uplift behavior and structural responses for the seismic design of nuclear power plant buildings. In this paper, an analysis model which describes the soil part using the 3 dimensional FEM was proposed to be used when the ground contact ratio is low, and the validity of this model was confirmed. Furthermore, investigations using the model were carried out where the attaching force under the basemat was taken into account, in order to more realistically estimate the basemat uplift behavior. The effects in the case of the building being embedded were also investigated. (authors)

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents : familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buschgens, Cathelijne J. M.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.; Swinkels, Sophie H. N.; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C.; Buitelaar, Jan K.

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buschgens, C.J.M.; Aken, M.A.G. van; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

2010-01-01

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buschgens, C.J.M.; van Aken, M.A.G.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

2010-01-01

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

2016-01-01

Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-01-01

Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

HIV Prevalence and Risk Behaviors in Male to Female (MTF) Transgender Persons in Tijuana, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Salas-Espinoza, Kristian Jesús; Menchaca-Diaz, Rufino; Patterson, Thomas L; Urada, Lianne A; Smith, Davey; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Pitpitan, Eileen V

2017-12-01

Compared to HIV research on men who have sex with men, less is known about the risks and vulnerabilities for HIV among Male to Female (MTF) transgender persons, particularly in different geographic regions like Mexico. In Tijuana, Mexico, a border city experiencing a dynamic HIV epidemic, no precedent data exists on the MTF transgender population. Our aims were to estimate HIV prevalence and examine the behaviors and characteristics of the population. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 100 MTF transgender persons recruited through time location sampling in 2012. Participants underwent interviewer-administered (paper and pen) surveys and rapid tests for HIV. Descriptive univariate analyses were conducted on various factors, including sociodemographics, substance use, accessing social services (requested vs. received), stigma, and sex behaviors. A total of 22% tested positive for HIV, a prevalence higher than other key populations at risk for HIV in Tijuana.

Cardiometabolic risks, lifestyle health behaviors and heart disease in Filipino Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayog, Maria Lg; Waters, Catherine M

2017-08-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among all racial and ethnic populations in the USA. Cardiovascular risks and cardioprotective factors have been disparately estimated among Asian American subpopulations. The study's purpose was to describe the cardiometabolic risks and lifestyle health behaviors associated with cardiovascular disease, considering age and gender, in Filipinos, the second largest Asian American population. Secondary analysis was conducted of behavioral (smoking, walking, body mass index and soda, fast food and fruit/vegetable consumption), cardiometabolic (hypertension and diabetes) and heart disease variables in the 2011-2012 California Health Interview Survey. The metropolitan sample of Filipino American adults included 57.3% women and had a mean age of 47.9 ± 18.3 years ( n = 555). Among the sample, 7.4% had heart disease, 38.9% had hypertension, 16.6% had diabetes, 12.4% smoked cigarettes, 83.2% were insufficiently active, 54.2% were overweight/obese, 21.8% routinely ate fast food, 13.2% routinely drank soda and 90.3% did not meet the fruit/vegetable consumption recommendation. Age (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.0, p Filipino American population. A multidisciplinary, chronic care model that is population-specific, emphasizes integrated, comprehensive care and provides linkages between primary healthcare and community resources is recommended for practice.

Theory of planned behavior interventions for reducing heterosexual risk behaviors: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tyson, Mandy; Covey, Judith; Rosenthal, Harriet E S

2014-12-01

The meta-analysis reported here examined interventions informed by the theory of planned behavior (TPB) or theory of reasoned action (TRA) aimed at reducing heterosexual risk behaviors (prevention of STDs and unwanted pregnancy). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were either randomized control trials or quasi-experimental studies that compared the TPB-based intervention against a control group. Search strategy consisted of articles identified in previous reviews, keyword search through search engines, examination of key journals, and contacting key experts. Forty-seven intervention studies were included in the meta-analysis. Random effects models revealed that pooled effect sizes for TPB-based interventions had small but significant effects on behavior and other secondary outcomes (i.e., knowledge, attitudes, normative beliefs, perceived behavioral control, and intentions). Significant heterogeneity found between effect sizes was explored using metaregression. Larger effects were found for interventions that provided opportunities for social comparison. The TPB provides a valuable framework for designing interventions to change heterosexual risk behaviors. However, effect sizes varied quite substantially between studies, and further research is needed to explore the reasons why.

A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Giger, Maryellen Lissak

2001-01-01

... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

Estimation of apparent kinetic parameters of polymer pyrolysis with complex thermal degradation behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srimachai, Taranee; Anantawaraskul, Siripon

2010-01-01

Full text: Thermal degradation behavior during polymer pyrolysis can typically be described using three apparent kinetic parameters (i.e., pre-exponential factor, activation energy, and reaction order). Several efficient techniques have been developed to estimate these apparent kinetic parameters for simple thermal degradation behavior (i.e., single apparent pyrolysis reaction). Unfortunately, these techniques cannot be directly extended to the case of polymer pyrolysis with complex thermal degradation behavior (i.e., multiple concurrent reactions forming single or multiple DTG peaks). In this work, we proposed a deconvolution method to determine the number of apparent reactions and estimate three apparent kinetic parameters and contribution of each reaction for polymer pyrolysis with complex thermal degradation behavior. The proposed technique was validated with the model and experimental pyrolysis data of several polymer blends with known compositions. The results showed that (1) the number of reaction and (2) three apparent kinetic parameters and contribution of each reaction can be estimated reasonably. The simulated DTG curves with estimated parameters also agree well with experimental DTG curves. (author)

[Adolescence, sexual behavior and risk factors to health].

Science.gov (United States)

Assis, Simone Gonçalves de; Gomes, Romeu; Pires, Thiago de Oliveira

2014-02-01

To analyze the relationships between sexual behavior and risk factors to physical and mental health in adolescents. Study of 3,195 pupils aged 15 to 19 in secondary education, in public and private schools in 10 state capitals in Brazil between 2007 and 2008. Multi-stage (schools and pupils) cluster sampling was used in each city and public and private educational network. All of the students selected completed a questionnaire on the following items: socioeconomic and demographic data; sexual behavior; having sex with those of the same sex, the opposite sex, or both; alcohol and cannabis use; using condoms; traumatic sexual experiences as a child or adolescent; suicidal thoughts. The analysis included describing frequencies, Chi-square test, analysis of multiple and cluster correspondence. Responses to an open ended question in which the adolescent expressed general comments about themselves and their lives were qualitatively analyzed using content analysis. Around 3.0% of adolescents reported homosexual or bisexual behavior, with no difference according to sex, age, skin color, social status family structure or educational network. Adolescents with homosexual/bisexual sexual behavior, compared to their heterosexual peers, reported: (p sexual violence (11.7% and 1.5%; respectively). Adolescents with homosexual/bisexual sexual behavior reported that they used condoms less frequently (74.2%) than their heterosexual peers (48.6%, p sexual violence, never using a condom, suicidal thoughts, frequent cannabis use; another composed of occasional cannabis and condom users, who got drunk frequently, and adolescents with heterosexual behavior and none of the risk factors investigated. More of the risk factors were found in adolescents with homosexual/bisexual behavior compared with those with heterosexual behavior. Adolescents with homosexual/bisexual sexual behavior were more likely to talk about their positive personal experiences and negative relationship experiences that

Estimation of enhanced cancer risk with 18FDG PET/CT investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaushik, Aruna; Mishra, Anil K.; Sharma, Rajnish; Mondal, Anupam; Dwarakanath, B.S.

2014-01-01

18 F-Fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 FDG) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) investigation involves internal administration of 18 FDG and use of CT X-rays for the purpose of obtaining functional and anatomical information of a patient. However, the radiation exposure from undergoing PET/CT investigation may enhance the risk of cancer incidence as per the Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) model. The objective of the present study was to quantify the risk of cancer incidence associated with radiation exposure from 18 FDG PET/CT investigations. The organ doses from internally administered 18 FDG were estimated using OLINDA/EXM Code by performing dynamic PET scans in different regions of the body in a total of forty-nine patients. Organ doses from the CT component were calculated using the software CT-Expo. The associated cancer risk was calculated in terms of life time risk of cancer incidence resulting from a specified dose of ionizing radiation and was expressed in terms of Lifetime Attributable Risk (LAR). LAR values and the organ doses estimated for males and females were used to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer incidence from whole body 18 FDG PET/CT scan. Since from 18 FDG whole body PET/CT investigations, various tissues of the body receive substantially different doses, the site specific risk of cancer incidence was estimated and summed to obtain the total risk. This was compared with the baseline lifetime risk of cancer incidence in Indian population. LAR of cancer incidence was observed to be relatively higher in females as compared to males. The risk estimates ranged from 0.36% to 0.49% for a 20 year old male and 0.58% to 0.79% for a 20 year old female and were observed to be higher in younger ages and decreased with age. 18 FDG whole body PET/CT investigation was observed to be associated with non-negligible radiation risk as compared to the risks associated with other diagnostic modalities. (author)

Associations between multiple health risk behaviors and mental health among Chinese college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Yong-ling; Wang, Pei-gang; Qu, Geng-cong; Yuan, Shuai; Phongsavan, Philayrath; He, Qi-qiang

2016-01-01

Although there is substantial evidence that health risk behaviors increase risks of premature morbidity and mortality, little is known about the multiple health risk behaviors in Chinese college students. Here, we investigated the prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors and its relation to mental health among Chinese college students. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Wuhan, China from May to June 2012. The students reported their health risk behaviors using self-administered questionnaires. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the self-rating depression scale and self-rating anxiety scale, respectively. A total of 2422 college students (1433 males) aged 19.7 ± 1.2 years were participated in the study. The prevalence of physical inactivity, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior, Internet addiction disorder (IAD), frequent alcohol use and current smoking was 62.0, 42.6, 29.8, 22.3, 11.6 and 9.3%, respectively. Significantly increased risks for depression and anxiety were found among students with frequent alcohol use, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior and IAD. Two-step cluster analysis identified two different clusters. Participants in the cluster with more unhealthy behaviors showed significantly increased risk for depression (odds ratio (OR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83, 2.67) and anxiety (OR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.92). This study indicates that a relatively high prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors was found among Chinese college students. Furthermore, the clustering of health risk behaviors was significantly associated with increased risks for depression and anxiety.

Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases in adolescents: Prevalence and associated factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Silva Dias de OLIVEIRA

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To examine the prevalence of the behavioral risk factors – both isolated and clustered – for chronic diseases, among adolescents. Additionally, its association with various social and demographic variables was estimated. Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 1,039 high school students, from public and private schools, elected for convenience, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, as well as crude and adjusted ordinal logistic regression were used to assess the association between the variables. Results The most frequently observed risk factors were sedentary behavior (68.8%, alcohol consumption (36.8%, and overweight (26.8%. The clustering of risk factors was observed in 67.5% of the students. Being a girl (OR=1.28; 95%CI=1.01–1.63, Caucasian (OR=1.35; 95%CI=1.06–1.72 or private school student (OR=1.46; 95%CI=1.12–1.88 increased the chance of the clustering of risk factors. The co-occurrence of risk factors was predominantly observed in the case of smoking (OR=4.94; 95%CI=1.46–16.75, alcohol consumption (OR=1.43; 95%CI=1.09–1.88, high consumption of ultra-processed foods (OR=1.57; 95%CI=1.19–2.07, and sedentary behavior (OR=1.40; 95%CI=1.07–1.82. Conclusion The co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors was observed to be higher among girls, Caucasian adolescents, and private school students, as well as, among smokers, alcohol users and adolescents with sedentary habits and a high consumption of ultra-processed foods.

Estimating the risk of cardio vascular diseases among pakistani diabetics using uk pds risk engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moazzam, A.; Amer, J.

2015-01-01

The concept of risk estimation of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is helpful for clinician to identifying high risk populations for their effective treatment. Latest studies recommended only initiating cardio-protective treatment in diabetic patients based on personalized CHD risk estimates so as to reduce undue harm from overly aggressive risk factor modification. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UK PDS) Risk Engine is a widely used tool to assess the risk of Cardio Vascular diseases (CVD) in diabetics. The literature search so far did not reveal any study of risk assessment among Pakistani Diabetics. Methods: This descriptive study is based on the data of 470 type-2 diabetics seen in Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Services Institute of Medical Sciences, Lahore during 2011. The data of these 470 patients was analyzed through UKPDS Risk Engine. CHD risk was calculated. Results: The 10 years risk of CHD, fatal CHD, stroke and fatal stroke was 9.4%, 4.4%, 1.7% and 0.2% respectively. Conclusions: The present study show a lower risk of CVD occurring among Pakistani diabetics as compared to studies from western countries. (author)

Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

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Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

2012-03-01

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

2012-01-01

In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks

Core Competencies and the Prevention of High-Risk Sexual Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, Vignetta Eugenia; Blum, Robert Wm.

2008-01-01

Adolescent sexual risk-taking behavior has numerous individual, family, community, and societal consequences. In an effort to contribute to the research and propose new directions, this chapter applies the core competencies framework to the prevention of high-risk sexual behavior. It describes the magnitude of the problem, summarizes explanatory…

Ewe maternal behavior score to estimate lamb survival and performance during lactation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreia Barros de Moraes

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Mortality of perinatal lambs and low weight at weaning cause huge liabilities to farmers. Current study describes maternal-filial behavior and evaluates the use of maternal behavior score (MBS to estimate the behavior of ewes and lambs soon after birth, and correlate it with lamb mortality and performance during lactation. Thirty-seven Corriedale ewes were used in a completely randomized design. MBS was assessed up to 24 hours after birth, taking into consideration the distance of the ewe from the lamb at the approach of a person. Maternal behavior, placental weight, weight gain of the lambs until weaning and their survival rate were also evaluated until two hours after lambing. More than 90% of the ewes had adequate maternal behavior, with parental care, even though ewes were very sensitive to the presence of people. There was no significant correlation between MBS and maternal behavior, lamb mortality rate and live weight gain. Under these conditions, MBS was not a useful tool to estimate maternal behavior and performance of lambs.

An Estimation of Risk Impact of Anticipated Transients without Scram for a KSNP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Seok Jung; Yang Joon Eon

2006-07-15

Anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) event is an accident sequence with large risk impact, while it is a beyond design basis accident (BDBA). We have estimated a risk due to an ATWS accident sequence for the KSNP in consideration of the recent accident analysis results. The SECY-83-293's model for the CE type plants has been used in a risk estimation of ATWS. A risk estimation due to an ATWS for the KSNP has been performed in consideration of the recent ATWS accident analysis results and plant information. We reviewed influence factors in the SECY-83-293's model, these factors have been re-estimated by using current information and PSA results for a KSNP. A risk due to an ATWS has been estimated as 3.6E-6/yr of CDF by using domestic aspect and recent KSNP information. A sensitivity study for the UET variation has been performed. As the results of the sensitivity analysis, the overall risk spectrum by the UET variation is bounded between 7.80E-7/yr to 8.00E-6/yr of CDF. As the result of the current study, the risk due to an ATWS accident sequence has been identified as a considerable impact on the entire risk of a KSNP, so the risk estimation of that plant should be upgraded by considering the recent information like the ATWS accident analysis results. Finally, we expect that this study can become a basis for the entire risk estimation of the referred plant.

Estimation of extreme risk regions under multivariate regular variation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; de Haan, L.F.M.

2011-01-01

When considering d possibly dependent random variables, one is often interested in extreme risk regions, with very small probability p. We consider risk regions of the form {z ∈ Rd : f (z) ≤ β}, where f is the joint density and β a small number. Estimation of such an extreme risk region is difficult

ESTIMATING RISK ON THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH VaR METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinisa Bogdan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The two basic questions that every investor tries to answer before investment are questions about predicting return and risk. Risk and return are generally considered two positively correlated sizes, during the growth of risk it is expected increase of return to compensate the higher risk. The quantification of risk in the capital market represents the current topic since occurrence of securities. Together with estimated future returns it represents starting point of any investment. In this study it is described the history of the emergence of VaR methods, usefulness in assessing the risks of financial assets. Three main Value at Risk (VaR methodologies are decribed and explained in detail: historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. After the theoretical review of VaR methods it is estimated risk of liquid stocks and portfolio from the Croatian capital market with historical and parametric VaR method, after which the results were compared and explained.

Social network composition of vascular patients and its associations with health behavior and clinical risk factors.

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Naomi Heijmans

Full Text Available This study aimed to explore linkages of patients' social network composition with health behaviors and clinical risk factors.This observational study was embedded in a project aimed at improving cardiovascular risk management (CRVM in primary care. 657 vascular patients (227 with cardiovascular disease, 380 at high vascular risk, mean age 72.4 (SD 9.4 years, were recruited as were individuals patients considered important for dealing with their disease, so called alters (n = 487. Network composition was measured with structured patient questionnaires. Both patients and alters completed questionnaires to measure health behavior (habits for physical activity, diet, and smoking. Clinical risk factors (systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol level, and body mass index were extracted from patients' medical records. Six logistic regression analyses, using generalized estimating equations, were used to test three hypothesized effects of network composition (having alters with healthful behaviors, without depression, and with specialized knowledge on six outcomes, adjusted for demographic, personal and psychological characteristics.Having alters with overall healthful behavior was related to healthful patient diet (OR 2.14, 95%CI: 1.52-3.02. Having non-smoking alters in networks was related to reduced odds for patient smoking (OR 0.17, 95%CI: 0.05-0.60. No effects of presence of non-depressed alters were found. Presence of alters with specialized knowledge on CVRM was inversely related to healthful diet habits of patients (OR 0.47, 95%CI 0.24-0.89. No significant associations between social network composition and clinical risk factors were found.Diet and smoking, but not physical exercise and clinical risk factors, were associated with social network composition of patients with vascular conditions. In this study of vascular patients, controlling for both personal and psychological factors, fewer network influences were found compared to previous

Tattoos and body piercings as indicators of adolescent risk-taking behaviors.

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Carroll, Sean T; Riffenburgh, Robert H; Roberts, Timothy A; Myhre, Elizabeth B

2002-06-01

This study assessed tattoos and body piercings as markers of risk-taking behaviors in adolescents. A 58-question survey, based on the 1997 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Youth Risk Behavior Survey, was offered to all adolescent beneficiaries that came to the Adolescent Clinic. The survey contained standard Youth Risk Behavior Survey questions that inquire about eating behavior, violence, drug abuse, sexual behavior, and suicide. Questions about tattoos and body piercings were added for the purposes of this study. Participants with tattoos and/or body piercings were more likely to have engaged in risk-taking behaviors and at greater degrees of involvement than those without either. These included disordered eating behavior, gateway drug use, hard drug use, sexual activity, and suicide. Violence was associated with males having tattoos and with females having body piercings. Gateway drug use was associated with younger age of both tattooing and body piercing. Hard drug use was associated with number of body piercings. Suicide was associated with females having tattoos and younger age of both tattooing and body piercing. Tattoos and body piercings were found to be more common in females than males. Tattoos and/or body piercings can alert practitioners to the possibility of other risk-taking behaviors in adolescents, leading to preventive measures, including counseling. Tattoo and body piercing discovery should be an important part of a health maintenance visit to best direct adolescent medical care.

Emotional Intelligence as a Predictor of Adolescent Risk Behavior Participation and Perception

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Skaar, Nicole R.; Williams, John E.

2012-01-01

The current study aimed to investigate emotional intelligence as a predictor of adolescent risk participation and risk perception. While research has suggested that certain personality traits relate to adolescent risk behavior and perception, the extent to which emotional intelligence relates to risk behavior participation and perception is…

Latent Class Analysis of HIV Risk Behaviors Among Russian Women at Risk for Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bohora, Som; Chaffin, Mark; Shaboltas, Alla; Bonner, Barbara; Isurina, Galina; Batluk, Julia; Bard, David; Tsvetkova, Larissa; Skitnevskaya, Larissa; Volkova, Elena; Balachova, Tatiana

2017-11-01

The number of HIV cases attributed to heterosexual contact and the proportion of women among HIV positive individuals has increased worldwide. Russia is a country with the highest rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections in the region, and the infection spreads beyond traditional risk groups. While young women are affected disproportionately, knowledge of HIV risk behaviors in women in the general population remains limited. The objectives of this study were to identify patterns of behaviors that place women of childbearing age at high risk for HIV transmission and determine whether socio-demographic characteristics and alcohol use are predictive of the risk pattern. A total of 708 non-pregnant women, aged between 18 and 44 years, who were at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy were enrolled in two regions in Russia. Participants completed a structured interview focused on HIV risk behaviors, including risky sexual behavior and alcohol and drug use. Latent class analysis was utilized to examine associations between HIV risk and other demographic and alcohol use characteristics and to identify patterns of risk among women. Three classes were identified. 34.93% of participants were at high risk, combining their risk behaviors, e.g., having multiple sexual partners, with high partner's risk associated with partner's drug use (class I). Despite reporting self-perceived risk for HIV/STI, this class of participants was unlikely to utilize adequate protection (i.e., condom use). The second high risk class included 13.19% of participants who combined their risky sexual behaviors, i.e., multiple sexual partners and having STDs, with partner's risk that included partner's imprisonment and partner's sex with other women (class II). Participants in this class were likely to utilize protection/condoms. Finally, 51.88% of participants were at lower risk, which was associated primarily with their partners' risk, and these participants utilized protection (class III). The odds

Brief Intervention for Truant Youth Sexual Risk Behavior and Marijuana Use

Science.gov (United States)

Dembo, Richard; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Barrett, Kimberly; Ungaro, Rocio; Winters, Ken C.; Belenko, Steven; Karas, Lora M.; Gulledge, Laura; Wareham, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Substance use and sexual risk behaviors are common among adolescents, but research has focused attention on alcohol use. Much less is known about the relationship of marijuana use and sexual risk behavior among high-risk, especially truant, youths. We report interim findings from a NIDA-funded experimental, brief intervention (BI) study involving…

Sexual Risk Behavior: HIV, STD, & Teen Pregnancy Prevention

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... A-Glance Project Connect Sexual Health STD Teen Pregnancy Sexual Risk Behaviors: HIV, STD, & Teen Pregnancy Prevention Recommend on Facebook Tweet ... their risk for HIV , other STDs , and unintended pregnancy . The National HIV/AIDS Strategy calls for all Americans to be ...

Staying on track: behavioral engagement of at-risk and non-at-risk students in post-secondary vocational education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elffers, L.

2013-01-01

Behavioral disengagement from school is a proximal predictor of dropout. Therefore, the enhancement of behavioral engagement is a useful point of entry for dropout prevention. In this study, we examine the behavioral engagement of at-risk and non-at-risk students in Dutch senior vocational education

Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

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Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

Sexual Health Risk Behavior Disparities Among Male and Female Adolescents Using Identity and Behavior Indicators of Sexual Orientation.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul Poteat, V; Russell, Stephen T; Dewaele, Alexis

2017-12-04

Sexual minority adolescent sexual risk behavior studies often overlook young women, do not consider behavior- and identity-based sexual orientation indicators in combination, and focus mainly on condomless sex. We examined multiple risk behaviors in a large sample of adolescent young men and women using combined behavior- and identity-based indices. The 2015 Dane County Youth Assessment data included 4734 students in 22 high schools who had ever voluntarily engaged in sexual contact (51.7% male; 76.0% White, non-Hispanic). Items assessed having sex with unfamiliar partners, sex while using substances, using protection, and STI testing. Logistic regressions tested for disparities based on combined identity- and behavior-based sexual orientation indicators. For both young men and women, youth who reported heterosexual or questioning identities-but who had sex with same-sex partners-were at consistently greater risk than heterosexual youth with only different-sex partners. Also, for both young men and women, bisexuals with partners of both sexes more consistently reported higher risk than heterosexual youth than did bisexuals with only different-sex partners. Risk behavior for gay young men who had sex only with men mirrored those in extant literature. Risk levels differed for specific groups of sexual minority young women, thus deserving further attention. Findings underscore the need for sexual health research to consider sexual orientation in a more multidimensional manner.

Risk-assessment and risk-taking behavior predict potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in the dorsal striatum of rats

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Sara ePalm

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Certain personality types and behavioral traits display high correlations to drug use and an increased level of dopamine in the reward system is a common denominator of all drugs of abuse. Dopamine response to drugs has been suggested to correlate with some of these personality types and to be a key factor influencing the predisposition to addiction. This study investigated if behavioral traits can be related to potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in the dorsal striatum, an area hypothesized to be involved in the shift from drug use to addiction. The open field and multivariate concentric square field™ tests were used to assess individual behavior in male Wistar rats. Chronoamperometric recordings were then made to study the potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine response in vivo. A classification based on risk-taking behavior in the open field was used for further comparisons. Risk-taking behavior was correlated between the behavioral tests and high risk takers displayed a more pronounced response to the dopamine uptake blocking effects of amphetamine. Behavioral parameters from both tests could also predict potassium- and amphetamine-induced dopamine responses showing a correlation between neurochemistry and behavior in risk-assessment and risk-taking parameters. In conclusion, the high risk-taking rats showed a more pronounced reduction of dopamine uptake in the dorsal striatum after amphetamine indicating that this area may contribute to the sensitivity of these animals to psychostimulants and proneness to addiction. Further, inherent dopamine activity was related to risk-assessment behavior, which may be of importance for decision-making and inhibitory control, key components in addiction.

Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

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Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grahn, D.

1990-01-01

The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

Estimating and explaining the effect of education and income on head and neck cancer risk: INHANCE consortium pooled analysis of 31 case-control studies from 27 countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, David I; Brenner, Darren R; McMahon, Alex D; Macpherson, Lorna M D; Agudo, Antonio; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Bosetti, Cristina; Brenner, Hermann; Castellsague, Xavier; Chen, Chu; Curado, Maria Paula; Curioni, Otávio A; Dal Maso, Luigino; Daudt, Alexander W; de Gois Filho, José F; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Edefonti, Valeria; Fabianova, Eleonora; Fernandez, Leticia; Franceschi, Silvia; Gillison, Maura; Hayes, Richard B; Healy, Claire M; Herrero, Rolando; Holcatova, Ivana; Jayaprakash, Vijayvel; Kelsey, Karl; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Koifman, Sergio; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lagiou, Pagona; Lazarus, Philip; Levi, Fabio; Lissowska, Jolanta; Luce, Daniele; Macfarlane, Tatiana V; Mates, Dana; Matos, Elena; McClean, Michael; Menezes, Ana M; Menvielle, Gwenn; Merletti, Franco; Morgenstern, Hal; Moysich, Kirsten; Müller, Heiko; Muscat, Joshua; Olshan, Andrew F; Purdue, Mark P; Ramroth, Heribert; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Rudnai, Peter; Schantz, Stimson; Schwartz, Stephen M; Shangina, Oxana; Simonato, Lorenzo; Smith, Elaine; Stucker, Isabelle; Sturgis, Erich M; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Talamini, Renato; Thomson, Peter; Vaughan, Thomas L; Wei, Qingyi; Winn, Deborah M; Wunsch-Filho, Victor; Yu, Guo-Pei; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Zheng, Tongzhang; Znaor, Ariana; Boffetta, Paolo; Chuang, Shu-Chun; Ghodrat, Marianoosh; Amy Lee, Yuan-Chin; Hashibe, Mia; Brennan, Paul

2015-03-01

Low socioeconomic status has been reported to be associated with head and neck cancer risk. However, previous studies have been too small to examine the associations by cancer subsite, age, sex, global region and calendar time and to explain the association in terms of behavioral risk factors. Individual participant data of 23,964 cases with head and neck cancer and 31,954 controls from 31 studies in 27 countries pooled with random effects models. Overall, low education was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR = 2.50; 95% CI = 2.02 - 3.09). Overall one-third of the increased risk was not explained by differences in the distribution of cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors; and it remained elevated among never users of tobacco and nondrinkers (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.13 - 2.31). More of the estimated education effect was not explained by cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors: in women than in men, in older than younger groups, in the oropharynx than in other sites, in South/Central America than in Europe/North America and was strongest in countries with greater income inequality. Similar findings were observed for the estimated effect of low versus high household income. The lowest levels of income and educational attainment were associated with more than 2-fold increased risk of head and neck cancer, which is not entirely explained by differences in the distributions of behavioral risk factors for these cancers and which varies across cancer sites, sexes, countries and country income inequality levels. © 2014 UICC.

DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): Middle School

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. Middle School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): High School

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. High School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

Extracting objective estimates of sedentary behavior from accelerometer data: measurement considerations for surveillance and research applications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youngdeok Kim

Full Text Available Accelerometer-based activity monitors are widely used in research and surveillance applications for quantifying sedentary behavior (SB and physical activity (PA. Considerable research has been done to refine methods for assessing PA, but relatively little attention has been given to operationalizing SB parameters (i.e., sedentary time and breaks from accelerometer data - particularly in relation to health outcomes. This study investigated: (a the accrued patterns of sedentary time and breaks; and (b the associations of sedentary time and breaks in different bout durations with cardiovascular risk factors.Accelerometer data on 5,917 adults from the National Health Examination and Nutrition Survey (NHANES 2003-2006 were used. Sedentary time and breaks at different bout durations (i.e., 1, 2-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and ≥ 30-min were obtained using a threshold of < 100 counts per minute. Sedentary time and breaks were regressed on cardiovascular risk factors (waist circumference, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and body mass index across bout durations.The results revealed that the majority of sedentary time occurred within relatively short bout durations (≈ 70% and ≈ 85% for < 5-min and < 10-min, respectively. The associations of sedentary time and breaks with health outcomes varied depending on how bout time was defined. Estimates of SB parameters based on bout durations of 5 min or shorter were associated with reduced cardiovascular risk factors while durations longer than 10-min were generally associated with increased risk factors.The present study demonstrates that the duration of sedentary bouts should be further considered when operationalizing the SB parameters from accelerometer data. The threshold of 5 minutes to define a bout is defensible, but a 10 minute threshold would provide a more conservative estimate to clearly capture the prolonged nature of sedentary behavior. Additional research is

Longitudinal study of family factors associated with risk behaviors in Mexican youth

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Alejandro González-González

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: according to literature, adolescence is a period where the young are more likely to engage in behaviors that could endanger their health. In addition, there is evidence suggesting the impact of some factors of family environment on the presence of risk behaviors. Objetive: the aim of this study was to determine changes in risk behavior and analyze the differences in family factors on these behaviors. Method: we used a longitudinal study on a group of 6,089 students (37.5% men and 62.5% women. Risk behaviors were assessed with 10 indicators. Family factors were evaluated by three scales: support, relationship and substance abuse within the family context. The information was obtained in a previous session prior to the beginning of the scholar semester for each of the three analyzed events. Results: an increase in risk behaviors was observed over time. Further, we also found significant differences in family factors on risk behaviors in the three measurements. Discussion: this evidence will allow the development of prevention and early detection programs to treat several problems related to teenagers during their school career.

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

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Christoph Heesen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

2013-01-01

Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

A behavioral typology of opioid overdose risk behaviors among recent veterans in New York City.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex S Bennett

Full Text Available To identify meaningful classes of opioid-using military veterans in terms of self-reported opioid overdose risk behaviors.The study recruited a sample of 218 military veterans in the NYC area who were discharged from active duty service after September 11, 2001 and reported past-month opioid use. Survey data including measures of mental health, social stressors, substance use, and opioid-related overdose risk behaviors were analyzed using Latent Class Analysis (LCA.A five group solution had excellent fit scores and interpretability. Factor analysis confirmed the existence of two major dimensions of variation: non-adherence and heroin use. The five groups included lower-risk prescription opioid users, non-adherent prescription opioid users and heroin users. The non-adherent prescription opioid users and heroin user classes were both further subdivided into "occasional" and "regular" use categories. In addition to endorsing a greater number of overdose risk behaviors, users in the regular use classes were more likely to screen positive for alcohol and substance use disorders, reported greater self-medicating opioid use to relieve anxiety, reported greater problems with physical pain, were more likely to have had mental health, alcohol and drug treatment, and were less likely to be employed or in school. Heroin users also were less likely to report stable housing.Findings indicate that opioid overdose risk classes are grounded in contextual factors related to experiences of psychological, physiological, and social adjustment pain and distress which should be addressed in tailored interventions targeting opioid users' unique constellations of risk behaviors and comorbid conditions.

Violent video games and delinquent behavior in adolescents: A risk factor perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Exelmans, Liese; Custers, Kathleen; Van den Bulck, Jan

2015-05-01

Over the years, criminological research has identified a number of risk factors that contribute to the development of aggressive and delinquent behavior. Although studies have identified media violence in general and violent video gaming in particular as significant predictors of aggressive behavior, exposure to violent video games has been largely omitted from the risk factor literature on delinquent behavior. This cross-sectional study therefore investigates the relationship between violent video game play and adolescents' delinquent behavior using a risk factor approach. An online survey was completed by 3,372 Flemish adolescents, aged 12-18 years old. Data were analyzed by means of negative binomial regression modelling. Results indicated a significant contribution of violent video games in delinquent behavior over and beyond multiple known risk variables (peer delinquency, sensation seeking, prior victimization, and alienation). Moreover, the final model that incorporated the gaming genres proved to be significantly better than the model without the gaming genres. Results provided support for a cumulative and multiplicative risk model for delinquent behavior. Aggr. Behav. 41:267-279, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting risk behaviors: development and validation of a diagnostic scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Witte, K; Cameron, K A; McKeon, J K; Berkowitz, J M

1996-01-01

The goal of this study was to develop and validate the Risk Behavior Diagnosis (RBD) Scale for use by health care providers and practitioners interested in promoting healthy behaviors. Theoretically guided by the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM; a fear appeal theory), the RBD scale was designed to work in conjunction with an easy-to-use formula to determine which types of health risk messages would be most appropriate for a given individual or audience. Because some health risk messages promote behavior change and others backfire, this type of scale offers guidance to practitioners on how to develop the best persuasive message possible to motivate healthy behaviors. The results of the study demonstrate the RBD scale to have a high degree of content, construct, and predictive validity. Specific examples and practical suggestions are offered to facilitate use of the scale for health practitioners.

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

Sexual Risk Behavior, Sexual Violence, and HIV in Persons With Severe Mental Illness in Uganda: Hospital-Based Cross-Sectional Study and National Comparison Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundberg, Patric; Nakasujja, Noeline; Musisi, Seggane; Thorson, Anna Ekéus; Cantor-Graae, Elizabeth; Allebeck, Peter

2015-06-01

We investigated prevalence of past-year sexual risk behavior and sexual violence exposure in persons with severe mental illness (SMI) in Uganda, and compared results to general population estimates. We also investigated whether persons with SMI reporting sexual risk behavior and sexual violence exposure were more likely to be HIV-infected. We included 602 persons consecutively discharged from Butabika Hospital, Kampala, Uganda, February to April 2010. We asked about past-year number of sexual partners and condom use. We assessed sexual violence with the World Health Organization Violence Against Women Instrument. We performed HIV testing. We used data from 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey for comparison. Women with SMI had more sexual risk behavior and more sexual violence exposure than women in the general population. We found no difference in sexual risk behavior in men. Sexual risk behavior was associated with HIV infection in men, but not women. Sexual violence exposure was not associated with HIV infection in women. Findings suggest that SMI exacerbates Ugandan women's sexual vulnerability. Public health practitioners, policymakers, and legislators should act to protect health and rights of women with SMI in resource-poor settings.

IMF sector behavior estimated from geomagnetic data at South Pole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsushita, S.; Xu, W.h.

1981-01-01

IMF sector behavior which has previously been estimated from the geomagnetic data at Godhavn is confirmed by study of the data at South Pole for 1959--1970 with the same estimation technique, taking the difference between northern and southern hemispheres into consideration. A method to improve (about 18%) the agreement between assigned and actual sector structures by study of the data at the two stations is suggested. Geomagnetic disturbance effects on sector estimation are discussed, and reversed sector effects in winter are given special emphasis

Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

Science.gov (United States)

Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

2018-03-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

Risk perception and intended behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mushkatel, A.; Nigg, J.; Pijawka, D.

1988-01-01

This paper reviews the approach taken to assess the social impacts of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada on residents in the closest metropolitan area, Las Vegas. The purpose of this portion of the assessment is to investigate the effects of the repository on the future well-being and behavior of Las Vegas residents under different operational futures of the repository. To investigate these effects, a research design and conceptual framework were developed to collect data from a random sample of Las Vegas metropolitan area residents. The design allows for the collection of both baseline data (to determine current risk perceptions and behaviors) and projected effects of the repository under four different operational futures

Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim

market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions.......We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...

Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mansfield, Theodore J.; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2016-01-01

be avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas. PMID:27200327

Substance use and sexual risk behaviors among Peruvian MSM social media users.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Sean D; Nianogo, Roch A; Chiu, ChingChe J; Menacho, Lucho; Galea, Jerome

2016-01-01

Peru is experiencing a concentrated HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM). Substance use (alcohol and drug use) has been found to be associated with HIV-related sexual risk behaviors. A recent surge in the number of social media users in Peru has enabled these technologies to be potential tools for reaching HIV at-risk individuals. This study sought to assess the relationship between substance use and sexual risk behaviors among Peruvian MSM who use social media. A total of 556 Peruvian MSM Facebook users (ages 18-59) were recruited to complete a 92-item survey on demographics, sexual risk behaviors, and substance use. We performed a logistic regression of various sexual risk behaviors (e.g., unprotected sex, casual sex) on substance abuse, including alcohol, adjusting for potential covariates. Drinking more than five alcoholic drinks a day in the past three months was associated with an increased odds of having unprotected sex (vaginal and anal) (aOR: 1.52; 95% CL: 1.01, 2.28), casual sex (1.75; 1.17, 2.62), and sex with unknown persons (1.82; 1.23, 2.71). Drug use was not significantly associated with sexual risk behaviors. Among Peruvian MSM social media users, findings suggest that alcohol use was associated with increased HIV-related sexual risk behaviors.

Red Color and Risk-Taking Behavior in Online Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Gnambs, Timo; Appel, Markus; Oeberst, Aileen

2015-01-01

In many situations red is associated with hazard and danger. As a consequence, it was expected that task-irrelevant color cues in online environments would affect risk-taking behaviors. This assumption was tested in two web-based experiments. The first study (N = 383) demonstrated that in risky choice dilemmas respondents preferred the less risky option when the displayed university logo was in red (versus gray); but only when both choice alternatives were at least moderately risky. The second study (N = 144) replicated these results with a behavioral outcome: Respondents showed more cautious behavior in a web-based game when the focal stimuli were colored red (versus blue). Together, these findings demonstrate that variations in the color design of a computerized environment affect risk taking: Red color leads to more conservative choices and behaviors. PMID:26207983

The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luis, J.B.

2001-01-01

The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

Injunctive safety norms, young worker risk-taking behaviors, and workplace injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Pek, Simon; Turner, Nick; Tucker, Sean; Kelloway, E Kevin; Morrish, Jayne

2017-09-01

Injunctive safety norms (ISNs) refer to perceptions of others' expectations of one's safety-related conduct. Drawing on a sample of Canadian young workers (n=11,986;M age=17.90years; 55% males), we study the relationships among four sources of non-work-related (i.e., parents, siblings, friends, teachers), two sources of work-related (i.e., supervisors, co-workers) ISNs, young workers' self-reported work-related risk-taking behaviors, and workplace injuries. Structural equation modeling suggests that ISNs from parents, supervisors, and co-workers were related to less frequent work-related risk-taking behaviors, and with fewer workplace injuries via less frequent work-related risk-taking behaviors. In addition, ISNs from supervisors were directly associated with fewer workplace injuries. In contrast, ISNs from teachers and siblings were not associated with work-related risk-taking behaviors, but ISNs from siblings were associated with fewer work injuries. Finally, ISNs from friends were associated with more frequent work-related risk-taking and more frequent work injuries via more frequent work-related risk-taking. This study draws attention to the relative roles of non-work sources of social influence and provides some evidence of how ISNs might be related to young workers' work-related risk-taking behaviors and their workplace injuries. It also contributes to practice by suggesting specific interventions that parents, supervisors, and co-workers could undertake to reduce young workers' work-related risk-taking and workplace injuries, namely encouraging youth to be safe at work. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV and risk behaviors of persons of low socio-economic status, Popayan-Colombia (2008-2009)

Science.gov (United States)

Pinzón, María Virgínia; Tello, Ines Constanza; Rincón-Hoyos, Hernan Gilberto; Galindo, Jaime

2013-01-01

Abstract Objetive: To determine HIV presence and risk behaviors of persons of low socio-economic status in the city of Popayan-Colombia. Methods: Cross-sectional study; between 2008 and 2009, 363 participants of Popayan signed informed consent and received pre and post HIV test counseling. Socio-demographic characteristics and history of STDs, risk behaviors and previous HIV testing were assessed. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multivariate logistic regression were calculated. Results: Mean age 33.5±10,2; 66 %women. Frequency of HIV-positive patients was 3.86 % (95% CI:1.87-5.85), greater in men (7.38%; p= 0.013). Greater frequency of HIV-positive patients was observed in people age 29-37, those without a stable partner, and those with history of risky alcohol consumption (more than five drinks in 2 h). Conclusions: HIV-positive patients frequency in this population was greater than national estimate for general population, aged 15-49 in Colombia, with even greater frequency in men. This study suggests that characteristics associated with low socioeconomic status, in economically active population, without a stable partner and with risky alcohol use, can potentially increase risk of HIV infection. PMID:24892315

Beyond recreational physical activity: examining occupational and household activity, transportation activity, and sedentary behavior in relation to postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

George, Stephanie M; Irwin, Melinda L; Matthews, Charles E; Mayne, Susan T; Gail, Mitchell H; Moore, Steven C; Albanes, Demetrius; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Schatzkin, Arthur; Leitzmann, Michael F

2010-11-01

We prospectively examined nonrecreational physical activity and sedentary behavior in relation to breast cancer risk among 97 039 postmenopausal women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. We identified 2866 invasive and 570 in situ breast cancer cases recorded between 1996 and 2003 and used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate multivariate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Routine activity during the day at work or at home that included heavy lifting or carrying versus mostly sitting was associated with reduced risk of invasive breast cancer (RR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.42, 0.91; P(trend) = .024). Routine activity during the day at work or home may be related to reduced invasive breast cancer risk. Domains outside of recreation time may be attractive targets for increasing physical activity and reducing sedentary behavior among postmenopausal women.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Parenting behaviors, perceptions, and psychosocial risk: impacts on young children's development.

Science.gov (United States)

Glascoe, Frances Page; Leew, Shirley

2010-02-01

The goal of this study was to assess which parenting behaviors, perceptions, and risk factors were associated with optimal versus delayed development. A total of 382 families from the national Brigance Infant and Toddler Screens standardization and validation study participated. Data sources included parent questionnaires, child testing, and examiner observations of parent-child interactions. Parenting styles research was operationalized with the Brigance Parent-Child Interactions Scale, a brief measure of parenting behaviors and perceptions. Six positive parenting behaviors and perceptions predicted average to above-average development on the Brigance screens. Conversely, parenting behaviors and negative perceptions of children indicated child performance nearly 2 SDs below the mean on Brigance screens. Psychosocial risk factors associated with fewer positive parenting behaviors and with negative perceptions included >3 children in the home, multiple moves, limited English, and parental depression. A dearth of positive parenting behaviors plus negative perceptions of children, with or without psychosocial risk factors, negatively affect child development, which is apparent as early as 6 months of age. The older the child is, the greater the performance gaps are. Language development is particularly at risk when parenting is problematic. Findings underscore the importance of early development promotion with parents, focusing on their talking, playing, and reading with children, and the need for interventions regarding psychosocial risk factors.

Behavioral Risk Assessment of the Guarded Suicidal Patient

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Robert I.

2008-01-01

Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are trained to assess patients by direct observation and examination. Short inpatient length of stay, brief outpatient visits, emergency room evaluations, and other time-limited clinical settings require rapid assessment of suicide risk. Recognition of behavioral suicide risk factors can assist…

[Social network analysis and high risk behavior characteristics of recreational drug users: a qualitative study].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Di; Wang, Zhenhong; Jiang, Zhenxia; Fu, Xiaojing; Li, Hui; Zhang, Dapeng; Liu, Hui; Hu, Yifei

2014-11-01

To understand the characteristics of recreational drug users' behaviors and social network, as well as their potential impact to the transmission of sexual transmitted infections (STI). Qualitative interview was used to collect information on rough estimation of population size and behavior change before and after recreational drug use. A total of 120 participants were recruited by convenient sampling from April to October, 2013 in a community of Qingdao city. Blood specimens were taken for HIV/syphilis serological testing and social network analysis was performed to understand the characteristics of their behavior and social network. All participants used methamphetamine and 103 of them showed social connection. The prevalence of syphilis and HIV were 24.2% (29/120) and 2.5% (3/120) respectively. The estimated size of recreational drug users was big with a wide diversity of occupations and age range, and males were more frequent than females. Drug use may affect condom use and frequent drug users showed symptom of psychosis and neuro-toxicities. The size of social network was 2.45 ± 1.63 in the past 6 months, which indicated an increasing trend of the sexual partner number and risky behaviors. Recreational drug use could increase the size of social network among sex partners, the frequency of risky sexual behaviors and syphilis prevalence, which indicate a high risk of HIV/STI among this population as well as a huge burden of disease prevention and control in the future.

HIV-related sexual risk behavior among African American adolescent girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Carla Kmett; Walsh, Kate; McCauley, Jenna; Ruggiero, Kenneth J; Brown, Jennifer L; Sales, Jessica M; Rose, Eve; Wingood, Gina M; Diclemente, Ralph J

2014-05-01

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a useful statistical tool that can be used to enhance understanding of how various patterns of combined sexual behavior risk factors may confer differential levels of HIV infection risk and to identify subtypes among African American adolescent girls. Data for this analysis is derived from baseline assessments completed prior to randomization in an HIV prevention trial. Participants were African American girls (n=701) aged 14-20 years presenting to sexual health clinics. Girls completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview, which assessed a range of variables regarding sexual history and current and past sexual behavior. Two latent classes were identified with the probability statistics for the two groups in this model being 0.89 and 0.88, respectively. In the final multivariate model, class 1 (the "higher risk" group; n=331) was distinguished by a higher likelihood of >5 lifetime sexual partners, having sex while high on alcohol/drugs, less frequent condom use, and history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), when compared with class 2 (the "lower risk" group; n=370). The derived model correctly classified 85.3% of participants into the two groups and accounted for 71% of the variance in the latent HIV-related sexual behavior risk variable. The higher risk class also had worse scores on all hypothesized correlates (e.g., self-esteem, history of sexual assault or physical abuse) relative to the lower risk class. Sexual health clinics represent a unique point of access for HIV-related sexual risk behavior intervention delivery by capitalizing on contact with adolescent girls when they present for services. Four empirically supported risk factors differentiated higher versus lower HIV risk. Replication of these findings is warranted and may offer an empirical basis for parsimonious screening recommendations for girls presenting for sexual healthcare services.

Maternal intraguild predation risk affects offspring anti-predator behavior and learning in mites

Science.gov (United States)

Seiter, Michael; Schausberger, Peter

2015-01-01

Predation risk is a strong selective force shaping prey morphology, life history and behavior. Anti-predator behaviors may be innate, learned or both but little is known about the transgenerational behavioral effects of maternally experienced predation risk. We examined intraguild predation (IGP) risk-induced maternal effects on offspring anti-predator behavior, including learning, in the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. We exposed predatory mite mothers during egg production to presence or absence of the IG predator Amblyseius andersoni and assessed whether maternal stress affects the anti-predator behavior, including larval learning ability, of their offspring as protonymphs. Protonymphs emerging from stressed or unstressed mothers, and having experienced IGP risk as larvae or not, were subjected to choice situations with and without IG predator traces. Predator-experienced protonymphs from stressed mothers were the least active and acted the boldest in site choice towards predator cues. We argue that the attenuated response of the protonymphs to predator traces alone represents optimized risk management because no immediate risk existed. Such behavioral adjustment could reduce the inherent fitness costs of anti-predator behaviors. Overall, our study suggests that P. persimilis mothers experiencing IGP risk may prime their offspring to behave more optimally in IGP environments. PMID:26449645

Physical activity in different periods of life, sedentary behavior, and the risk of ovarian cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Qian; Yang, Hannah P; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Hollenbeck, Albert; Matthews, Charles E

2013-11-01

Physical activity and sedentary behavior may influence ovarian cancer risk, but clear evidence is lacking. We prospectively investigated the relations of self-reported physical activity and sedentary behavior to ovarian cancer incidence in a cohort of 148,892 U.S. women ages 50-71 years at baseline (1995-1996), who were followed through 2006. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We also conducted analysis by hormone use, body mass index (BMI), and cancer subtype. We identified 753 incident epithelial ovarian cancers. Overall, neither physical activity nor sedentary behavior at baseline was associated with ovarian cancer risk. Compared with women who never or rarely engaged in vigorous physical activity in the past year, women who reported more than 5 times/week of vigorous physical activity had an RR of 1.05 (95% CI, 0.84-1.32). Women who sat 7+ hours/day had an RR of 1.05 (95% CI, 0.80-1.37) compared with those reporting sedentary behavior in middle and older ages were not associated with ovarian cancer risk. We found no clear support for a role of physical activity and sedentary behavior in ovarian cancer risk. ©2013 AACR.

Understanding HIV Transmission Risk Behavior Among HIV-Infected South Africans Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy: An Information—Motivation—Behavioral Skills Model Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kiene, Susan M.; Fisher, William A.; Shuper, Paul A.; Cornman, Deborah H.; Christie, Sarah; MacDonald, Susan; Pillay, Sandy; Mahlase, Gethwana; Fisher, Jeffrey D.

2014-01-01

The current study applied the Information—Motivation—Behavioral Skills (IMB) model (J. D. Fisher & Fisher, 1992; W. A. Fisher & Fisher, 1993) to identify factors associated with HIV transmission risk behavior among HIV-infected South Africans receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), a population of considerable significance for curtailing, or maintaining, South Africa’s generalized HIV epidemic. HIV prevention information, HIV prevention motivation, HIV prevention behavioral skills, and HIV transmission risk behavior were assessed in a sample of 1,388 South Africans infected with HIV and receiving ART in 16 clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Results confirmed the assumptions of the IMB model and demonstrated that HIV prevention information and HIV prevention motivation work through HIV prevention behavioral skills to affect HIV transmission risk behavior in this population. Subanalyses confirmed these relationships for HIV transmission risk behavior overall and for HIV transmission risk behavior with partners perceived to be HIV-negative or HIV-status unknown. A consistent pattern of gender differences showed that for men, HIV prevention information and HIV prevention motivation may have direct links with HIV preventive behavior, while for women, the effects of HIV prevention information and HIV prevention motivation work through HIV prevention behavioral skills to affect HIV preventive behavior. These IMB model-based findings suggest directions for HIV prevention interventions with South African men and women living with HIV and on ART as an important component of overall strategies to contain South Africa’s generalized HIV epidemic. PMID:23477576

Understanding HIV transmission risk behavior among HIV-infected South Africans receiving antiretroviral therapy: an information--motivation--behavioral skills model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiene, Susan M; Fisher, William A; Shuper, Paul A; Cornman, Deborah H; Christie, Sarah; Macdonald, Susan; Pillay, Sandy; Mahlase, Gethwana; Fisher, Jeffrey D

2013-08-01

The current study applied the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model (Fisher & Fisher, 1992; Fisher & Fisher, 1993) to identify factors associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission risk behavior among HIV-infected South Africans receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), a population of considerable significance for curtailing, or maintaining, South Africa's generalized HIV epidemic. HIV prevention information, HIV prevention motivation, HIV prevention behavioral skills, and HIV transmission risk behavior were assessed in a sample of 1,388 South Africans infected with HIV and receiving ART in 16 clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Findings confirmed the assumptions of the IMB model and demonstrated that HIV prevention information and HIV prevention motivation work through HIV prevention behavioral skills to affect HIV transmission risk behavior in this population. Subanalyses confirmed these relationships for HIV transmission risk behavior overall and for HIV transmission risk behavior with partners perceived to be HIV-negative or HIV-status unknown. A consistent pattern of gender differences showed that for men, HIV prevention information and HIV prevention motivation may have direct links with HIV preventive behavior, whereas for women, the effect of HIV prevention motivation works through HIV prevention behavioral skills to affect HIV preventive behavior. These IMB model-based findings suggest directions for HIV prevention interventions with South African men and women living with HIV and on ART as an important component of overall strategies to contain South Africa's generalized HIV epidemic. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Factors associated with health risk behaviors among Brazilian adolescents: an integrative review.

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, Luciana Ramos de; Torres, Lilian Machado; Cadete, Matilde Meire Miranda; Cunha, Cristiane de Freitas

2018-01-01

Identifying knowledge about factors associated with health risk behaviors among Brazilian adolescents. An integrative review of the literature conducted in the Cochrane, IBECS, LILACS, MEDLINE and SciELO databases in relation to risk behaviors recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Thirty-seven (37) studies were analyzed, with a predominance of risky sexual behavior, tobacco use and violent behavior. Advancing age favored unprotected sex, alcohol and tobacco use. Family and friends influence was related to smoking and alcoholism. Males were more involved in situations of violence and the female gender was associated with physical inactivity. Belonging to a lower economic class was related to unprotected sex, physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary behaviors and violence. Studying in private school was related to unhealthy dietary behavior. Risk behaviors were related to social, economic and family factors and they tend to agglomerate.

HIV risk sexual behaviors among teachers in Uganda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lillian Ayebale

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Recent studies reveal that teachers are more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behavior compared to the rest of the adult population. Yet the education sector could be a major vehicle for imparting knowledge and skills of avoiding and/or coping with the pandemic. This study set out to establish HIV risk behaviors among teachers in Uganda, to inform the design of a behavior change communication strategy for HIV prevention among teachers. It was a cross sectional rapid assessment conducted among primary and secondary school teachers in Kampala and Kalangala districts, in Uganda. A total of 183 teachers were interviewed. HIV risk behavior, in this study was measured as having multiple sexual partners and/or sex with a partner of unknown status without using a condom. We also considered transactional/sex for favors and alcohol use as exposures to HIV risk behavior. Odds ratios (OR and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. All data analysis was performed using SPSS version 17.0 and EPI Info Version 3.5.1. Forty five per cent of teachers reported having multiple concurrent sexual partners in the last three months, of these, only 24% acknowledged having used a condom at their last sexual encounter yet only 9.8% knew their partners’ HIV status. Teachers below 30years of age were more likely to have two or more concurrent sexual partners (OR 2.6, CI 1.31-5.34 compared to those above 30 years. Primary school teachers were less likely to involve with partners of unknown HIV status compared to secondary school teachers (OR 0.43, CI 0.19-0.97. Teachers aged below 30 years were also more likely to engage with partners of unknown HIV status compared to those above 30 years (OR 2.47, CI 1.10-5.59. Primary teachers were also less likely to have given or received gifts, money or other favors in exchange for sex (OR 0.24, CI 0.09-0.58. Teachers engage in risky sexual behaviors, which lead to HIV infection. There is need to promote

Liaisons dangereuses: HIV risk behavior and prevention in steady gay relationships

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Davidovich, E.

2006-01-01

This dissertation studied sexual risk-taking behavior among gay men in steady relationships. The main targets of this study were to establish: (a) whether steady relationships form a risk environment for HIV-infection; (b) some of the determinants of risky and protective behavior between steady

HIV Risk Behavior in Persons with Severe Mental Disorders in a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HIV risk behavior was significantly related to alcohol use (P = 0.03). Conclusion: Mental health services provide an important context for HIV/AIDS interventions in resource‑constrained countries like Nigeria. Keywords: Human immuno virus, Mental health, Psychiatric patients, Risk behavior, Severe mental disorders ...

Social media and college student risk behaviors: A mini-review.

Science.gov (United States)

Groth, Gabrielle G; Longo, Laura M; Martin, Jessica L

2017-02-01

Use of social media use is widespread and frequent among college students. Posting photos and text related to risk behaviors (e.g., problematic alcohol use, illicit drug use) on social media websites is common and has been linked to personal substance use and negative outcomes. This mini-review summarizes current findings related to associations between college students' social media use and engagement in risk behaviors. Conducting research on social media poses unique challenges for researchers; these challenges are reviewed and their impact on the state of the current literature discussed. Finally, implications for prevention and intervention efforts are discussed as well as recommendations regarding future research in the area of social media and college student risk behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

2010-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoo, Ho Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2008-10-15

Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks.

Estimation of Radiological Terrorism Risk by Administrative Districts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Suk Hoon; Kim, Ju Youl; Yoo, Ho Sik

2008-01-01

Since the 9/11 attack in USA, the threat of terrorism across the world has dramatically increased. Accordingly, estimating terrorism risk has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies throughout the world. There are many forms of terrorism. Recently, the prospect of the radiological terrorist attack using the radioactive material is considered as one of the most serious threats. The aim of this paper is to assess the radiological terrorism risk by administrative districts based on the parameters that imply threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks

Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

Science.gov (United States)

van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

2016-01-01

Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Workplace victimization risk and protective factors for suicidal behavior among active duty military personnel.

Science.gov (United States)

Hourani, Laurel L; Williams, Jason; Lattimore, Pamela K; Morgan, Jessica K; Hopkinson, Susan G; Jenkins, Linda; Cartwright, Joel

2018-04-22

Workplace victimization is a potential risk factor for suicidal behaviors (SB) among military personnel that has been largely overlooked. This paper examines both the impact of workplace victimization on reported SB and several potential protective factors associated with such suicidal behaviors in a large sample of active duty soldiers. A case-control study was conducted with 71 soldiers who reported SB in the past 12 months, each matched on sociodemographic characteristics to two others without reported suicidal behaviors. A multiple regression model was estimated to assess the effects of risk and protective factors while controlling for other variables. SB was associated with several aspects of victimization, mental health and substance abuse conditions, pain, impulsivity, stressors, negative life events, work-family conflict, active coping behaviors and positive military-related factors. Controlling for other variables, those with SB were more likely to have sought mental health or substance abuse services, to be depressed, anxious, impulsive, and less resilient than non-SB personnel. Study limitations included the use of retrospective self-report data, absence of some known SB predictors, and a population restricted to active duty Army personnel. SB among active duty personnel is associated with victimization since joining the military and is protected by resiliency. These findings suggest that in addition to the usual mental health factors, these additional predictors should be accounted for in SB intervention and prevention planning for active duty personnel. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-Reported Risk and Delinquent Behavior and Problem Behavioral Intention in Hong Kong Adolescents: The Role of Moral Competence and Spirituality.

Science.gov (United States)

Shek, Daniel T L; Zhu, Xiaoqin

2018-01-01

Based on the six-wave data collected from Grade 7 to Grade 12 students ( N = 3,328 at Wave 1), this pioneer study examined the development of problem behaviors (risk and delinquent behavior and problem behavioral intention) and the predictors (moral competence and spirituality) among adolescents in Hong Kong. Individual growth curve models revealed that while risk and delinquent behavior accelerated and then slowed down in the high school years, adolescent problem behavioral intention slightly accelerated over time. After controlling the background socio-demographic factors, moral competence and spirituality were negatively associated with risk and delinquent behavior as well as problem behavioral intention across all waves as predicted. Regarding the rate of change in the outcome measures, while the initial level of spirituality was positively linked to the growth rate of risk and delinquent behavior, the initial level of moral competence was negatively associated with the growth rate of problem behavioral intention. The theoretical and practical implications of the present findings are discussed with reference to the role of moral competence and spirituality in the development of adolescent problem behavior.

Self-Reported Risk and Delinquent Behavior and Problem Behavioral Intention in Hong Kong Adolescents: The Role of Moral Competence and Spirituality

Science.gov (United States)

Shek, Daniel T. L.; Zhu, Xiaoqin

2018-01-01

Based on the six-wave data collected from Grade 7 to Grade 12 students (N = 3,328 at Wave 1), this pioneer study examined the development of problem behaviors (risk and delinquent behavior and problem behavioral intention) and the predictors (moral competence and spirituality) among adolescents in Hong Kong. Individual growth curve models revealed that while risk and delinquent behavior accelerated and then slowed down in the high school years, adolescent problem behavioral intention slightly accelerated over time. After controlling the background socio-demographic factors, moral competence and spirituality were negatively associated with risk and delinquent behavior as well as problem behavioral intention across all waves as predicted. Regarding the rate of change in the outcome measures, while the initial level of spirituality was positively linked to the growth rate of risk and delinquent behavior, the initial level of moral competence was negatively associated with the growth rate of problem behavioral intention. The theoretical and practical implications of the present findings are discussed with reference to the role of moral competence and spirituality in the development of adolescent problem behavior. PMID:29651269

A latent class analysis of cancer risk behaviors among U.S. college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Joseph; Ciecierski, Christina Czart; Malin, Emily L; Carroll, Allison J; Gidea, Marian; Craft, Lynette L; Spring, Bonnie; Hitsman, Brian

2014-07-01

The purpose of this study is to understand how cancer risk behaviors cluster in U.S. college students and vary by race and ethnicity. Using the fall 2010 wave of the National College Health Assessment (NCHA), we conducted a latent class analysis (LCA) to evaluate the clustering of cancer risk behaviors/conditions: tobacco use, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, alcohol binge drinking, and overweight/obesity. The identified clusters were then examined separately by students' self-reported race and ethnicity. Among 30,093 college students surveyed, results show a high prevalence of unhealthy diet as defined by insufficient fruit and vegetable intake (>95%) and physical inactivity (>60%). The LCA identified behavioral clustering for the entire sample and distinct clustering among Black and American Indian students. Cancer risk behaviors/conditions appear to cluster among college students differentially by race. Understanding how risk behaviors cluster in young adults can lend insight to racial disparities in cancer through adulthood. Health behavior interventions focused on modifying multiple risk behaviors and tailored to students' racial group could potentially have a much larger effect on cancer prevention than those targeting any single behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Red Color and Risk-Taking Behavior in Online Environments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timo Gnambs

Full Text Available In many situations red is associated with hazard and danger. As a consequence, it was expected that task-irrelevant color cues in online environments would affect risk-taking behaviors. This assumption was tested in two web-based experiments. The first study (N = 383 demonstrated that in risky choice dilemmas respondents preferred the less risky option when the displayed university logo was in red (versus gray; but only when both choice alternatives were at least moderately risky. The second study (N = 144 replicated these results with a behavioral outcome: Respondents showed more cautious behavior in a web-based game when the focal stimuli were colored red (versus blue. Together, these findings demonstrate that variations in the color design of a computerized environment affect risk taking: Red color leads to more conservative choices and behaviors.

Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

2014-01-01

We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

Identifying Adolescents at Highly Elevated Risk for Suicidal Behavior in the Emergency Department

Science.gov (United States)

Berona, Johnny; Czyz, Ewa; Horwitz, Adam G.; Gipson, Polly Y.

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective: The feasibility and concurrent validity of adolescent suicide risk screening in medical emergency departments (EDs) has been documented. The objectives of this short-term prospective study of adolescents who screened positive for suicide risk in the ED were: 1) to examine adolescents' rate of suicidal behavior during the 2 months following their ED visits and compare it with reported rates for psychiatric samples; and 2) to identify possible predictors of acute risk for suicidal behavior in this at-risk sample. Method: Participants were 81 adolescents, ages 14–19 years, seeking services for psychiatric and nonpsychiatric chief complaints, who screened positive for suicide risk because of recent suicidal ideation, a suicide attempt, and/or depression plus alcohol or substance misuse. A comprehensive assessment of suicidal behavior, using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, was conducted at baseline and 2 month follow-up. Results: Six adolescents (7.4%) reported a suicide attempt and 15 (18.5%) engaged in some type of suicidal behavior (actual, aborted, or interrupted suicide attempt; preparatory behavior) during the 2 months following their ED visit. These rates suggest that this screen identified a high-risk sample. Furthermore, adolescents who screened positive for suicidal ideation and/or attempt plus depression and alcohol/substance misuse were most likely to engage in future suicidal behavior (38.9%). Conclusions: In this study, use of a higher screen threshold (multiple suicide risk factors) showed promise for identifying highly elevated acute risk for suicidal behavior. PMID:25746114

Modeling Crossing Behavior of Drivers at Unsignalized Intersections with Consideration of Risk Perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Miaomiao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Drivers’ risk perception is vital to driving behavior and traffic safety. In the dynamic interaction of a driver-vehicle-environment system, drivers’ risk perception changes dynamically. This study focused on drivers’ risk perception at unsignalized intersections in China and analyzed drivers’ crossing behavior. Based on cognitive psychology theory and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, quantitative models of drivers’ risk perception were established for the crossing processes between two straight-moving vehicles from the orthogonal direction. The acceptable risk perception levels of drivers were identified using a self-developed data analysis method. Based on game theory, the relationship among the quantitative value of drivers’ risk perception, acceptable risk perception level, and vehicle motion state was analyzed. The models of drivers’ crossing behavior were then established. Finally, the behavior models were validated using data collected from real-world vehicle movements and driver decisions. The results showed that the developed behavior models had both high accuracy and good applicability. This study would provide theoretical and algorithmic references for the microscopic simulation and active safety control system of vehicles.

Comparison of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schommer, J C; Sullivan, D L; Wiederholt, J B

1994-01-01

To compare the rates reported for provision of types of information conveyed by pharmacists among studies for which different methods of estimation were used and different dispensing situations were studied. Empiric studies conducted in the US, reported from 1982 through 1992, were selected from International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, and noncomputerized sources. Empiric studies were selected for review if they reported the provision of at least three types of counseling information. Four components of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors were extracted and summarized in a table: (1) sample type and area, (2) sampling unit, (3) sample size, and (4) data collection method. In addition, situations that were investigated in each study were compiled. Twelve studies met our inclusion criteria. Patients were interviewed via telephone in four studies and were surveyed via mail in two studies. Pharmacists were interviewed via telephone in one study and surveyed via mail in two studies. For three studies, researchers visited pharmacy sites for data collection using the shopper method or observation method. Studies with similar methods and situations provided similar results. Data collected by using patient surveys, pharmacist surveys, and observation methods can provide useful estimations of pharmacist counseling behaviors if researchers measure counseling for specific, well-defined dispensing situations.

A measure of fall risk behaviors and perceptions among community-dwelling older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuen, Hon Keung; Carter, Rickey E

2006-01-01

Relatively little is known about the interaction between behavioral and environmental circumstances associated with falls among community-dwelling older adults. This study is designed to develop an instrument that measures community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Eighty-seven community-dwelling older adults aged 60 or above (mean +/- SD = 76 +/- 7.9), who had experienced at least one fall in the past 12 months, completed a questionnaire dealing with frequency of their participation in fall risk behaviors, their perceptions of these behaviors, and their fall history. Data were subjected to exploratory factor analysis. A 20-item instrument consisting of three constructs was presented as the Fall Risk Behaviors and Perceptions Scale (FRB&PS). Two of the three constructs of the instrument were de-stabilizers and non-supports, both of which measure participation in fall risk behaviors; the third was perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Internal consistency coefficient of the FRB&PS is 0.733 with a root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) score of 0.075, which indicates an adequate model fit. Results from the stepwise regression analyses indicated that adults aged 75 and above (the old-old) participated less frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.025), and had more knowledge about fall risks as measured by a higher perception score (p = 0.025) than those aged 60 to 75 (the young-old). Older men tended to participate more frequently in fall risk activities (p = 0.020) than older women; in addition, those older adults who are more mobile (p = 0.002) also participated more frequently in fall risk behaviors than those who are less mobile. Preliminary findings indicate that the pilot FRB&PS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure community-dwelling older adults' participation in and perceptions of fall risk behaviors. Additional psychometric validation of the FRB&PS on predicting the likelihood of falls is

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-30

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Family structure and risk behaviors: the role of the family meal in assessing likelihood of adolescent risk behaviors

OpenAIRE

Sen, Bisakha; Goldfarb,Samantha; Tarver,Will

2014-01-01

Samantha Goldfarb, Will L Tarver, Bisakha Sen Department of Health Care Organization and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA Background: Previous literature has asserted that family meals are a key protective factor for certain adolescent risk behaviors. It is suggested that the frequency of eating with the family is associated with better psychological well-being and a lower risk of substance use and delinquency. However, it is unclear w...

Estimating the actual subject-specific genetic correlations in behavior genetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Peter C M

2012-10-01

Generalization of the standard behavior longitudinal genetic factor model for the analysis of interindividual phenotypic variation to a genetic state space model for the analysis of intraindividual variation enables the possibility to estimate subject-specific heritabilities.

Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

1981-01-01

The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

School attendance, health-risk behaviors, and self-esteem in adolescents applying for working papers.

Science.gov (United States)

Suss, A L; Tinkelman, B K; Freeman, K; Friedman, S B

1996-01-01

Since health-risk behaviors are often encountered in clusters among adolescents, it was hypothesized that adolescents with poor school attendance would be associated with more health-risk behaviors (e.g., substance use, violence) than those who attend school regularly. This study assessed the relationship between poor school attendance and health-risk behaviors, and described health-risk behaviors and self-esteem among adolescents seeking employment. In this cross-sectional study, school attendance (poor vs. regular attendance) was related to health-risk behaviors by asking 122 subjects seen at a New York City Working Papers Clinic to complete both a 72-item questionnaire about their health-risk behaviors and the 58-item Coopersmith Self-Esteem School Form Inventory. Chi-square and Fisher's Exact Tests were performed. The poor and regular attenders of school differed significantly in only 5 out of 44 items pertaining to health-risk behaviors. Self-esteem measures for the two groups did not differ from one another or from national norms. In this sample, depression "in general" (global) and "at home," but not "at school," were associated significantly with suicidal thoughts/attempts and serious past life events (e.g. family conflict, sexual abuse). There were no significant associations between depression or self-esteem and illicit substance or alcohol use. We found few associations between poor school attendance and health-risk behaviors in this sample of employment-seeking adolescents. The poor and regular attenders of school were similar in most aspects of their health-risk behaviors and self-esteem.

The Effect of Subjective Risk Attitudes and Overconfidence on Risk Taking Behaviors: A Experimental Study Based on Traders of the Chinese Stock Market

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qi-An; Xiao, Yinghong; Chen, Hui; Chen, Liang

Our research analyzes the effect of the traders’ subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence on their risk taking behaviors on the Chinese Stock Market by experimental study method. We find that investors’ risk taking behavior is significantly affected by their subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence. Our results also argue that the objective return and volatility of stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence and optimism have an significant impact on risk taking behavior In line with theoretical models.

Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.

1998-01-01

In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2010 and prior)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2010 and Prior)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

fMRI investigation of response inhibition, emotion, impulsivity, and clinical high-risk behavior in adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Matthew R G; Benoit, James R A; Juhás, Michal; Dametto, Ericson; Tse, Tiffanie T; MacKay, Marnie; Sen, Bhaskar; Carroll, Alan M; Hodlevskyy, Oleksandr; Silverstone, Peter H; Dolcos, Florin; Dursun, Serdar M; Greenshaw, Andrew J

2015-01-01

High-risk behavior in adolescents is associated with injury, mental health problems, and poor outcomes in later life. Improved understanding of the neurobiology of high-risk behavior and impulsivity shows promise for informing clinical treatment and prevention as well as policy to better address high-risk behavior. We recruited 21 adolescents (age 14-17) with a wide range of high-risk behavior tendencies, including medically high-risk participants recruited from psychiatric clinics. Risk tendencies were assessed using the Adolescent Risk Behavior Screen (ARBS). ARBS risk scores correlated highly (0.78) with impulsivity scores from the Barratt Impulsivity scale (BIS). Participants underwent 4.7 Tesla functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing an emotional Go/NoGo task. This task presented an aversive or neutral distractor image simultaneously with each Go or NoGo stimulus. Risk behavior and impulsivity tendencies exhibited similar but not identical associations with fMRI activation patterns in prefrontal brain regions. We interpret these results as reflecting differences in response inhibition, emotional stimulus processing, and emotion regulation in relation to participant risk behavior tendencies and impulsivity levels. The results are consistent with high impulsivity playing an important role in determining high risk tendencies in this sample containing clinically high-risk adolescents.

The Prevalence of HIV Risk Behaviors among Felony Drug Court Participants.

Science.gov (United States)

Festinger, David S; Dugosh, Karen L; Metzger, David S; Marlowe, Douglas B

2012-01-01

A small percentage of participants in a large metropolitan felony Drug Court engaged in high-risk injection drug use, but a large percentage engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. HIV risk behaviors were associated with being male, African-American, and younger. A large proportion of Drug Court participants resided in areas of the city with a high prevalence of persons living with HIV/AIDS, thus heightening the probability of exposure to the virus.

Personality differences predict health-risk behaviors in young adulthood: evidence from a longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Caspi, A; Begg, D; Dickson, N; Harrington, H; Langley, J; Moffitt, T E; Silva, P A

1997-11-01

In a longitudinal study of a birth cohort, the authors identified youth involved in each of 4 different health-risk behaviors at age 21: alcohol dependence, violent crime, unsafe sex, and dangerous driving habits. At age 18, the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ) was used to assess 10 distinct personality traits. At age 3, observational measures were used to classify children into distinct temperament groups. Results showed that a similar constellation of adolescent personality traits, with developmental origins in childhood, is linked to different health-risk behaviors at 21. Associations between the same personality traits and different health-risk behaviors were not an artifact of the same people engaging in different health-risk behaviors; rather, these associations implicated the same personality type in different but related behaviors. In planning campaigns, health professionals may need to design programs that appeal to the unique psychological makeup of persons most at risk for health-risk behaviors.

Behavioral Monitoring of Sexual Offenders Against Children in Virtual Risk Situations: A Feasibility Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Fromberger

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The decision about unsupervised privileges for sexual offenders against children (SOC is one of the most difficult decisions for practitioners in forensic high-security hospitals. Facing the possible consequences of the decision for the society, a valid and reliable risk management of SOCs is essential. Some risk management approaches provide frameworks for the construction of relevant future risk situations. Due to ethical reasons, it is not possible to evaluate the validity of constructed risk situations in reality. The aim of the study was to test if behavioral monitoring of SOCs in high-immersive virtual risk situations provides additional information for risk management. Six SOCs and seven non-offender controls (NOC walked through three virtual risk situations, confronting the participant with a virtual child character. The participant had to choose between predefined answers representing approach or avoidance behavior. Frequency of chosen answers were analyzed in regards to knowledge of the participants about coping skills and coping skills focused during therapy. SOCs and NOCs behavior differed only in one risk scenario. Furthermore, SOCs showed in 89% of all cases a behavior not corresponding to their own belief about adequate behavior in comparable risk situations. In 62% of all cases, SOCs behaved not corresponding to coping skills they stated that therapists focused on during therapy. In 50% of all cases, SOCs behaved in correspondence to coping skills therapists stated that they focused on during therapy. Therapists predicted the behavior of SOCs in virtual risk situations incorrect in 25% of all cases. Thus, virtual risk scenarios provide the possibility for practitioners to monitor the behavior of SOCs and to test their decisions on unsupervised privileges without endangering the community. This may provide additional information for therapy progress. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the predictive and ecological validity

Behavioral Monitoring of Sexual Offenders Against Children in Virtual Risk Situations: A Feasibility Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fromberger, Peter; Meyer, Sabrina; Jordan, Kirsten; Müller, Jürgen L

2018-01-01

The decision about unsupervised privileges for sexual offenders against children (SOC) is one of the most difficult decisions for practitioners in forensic high-security hospitals. Facing the possible consequences of the decision for the society, a valid and reliable risk management of SOCs is essential. Some risk management approaches provide frameworks for the construction of relevant future risk situations. Due to ethical reasons, it is not possible to evaluate the validity of constructed risk situations in reality. The aim of the study was to test if behavioral monitoring of SOCs in high-immersive virtual risk situations provides additional information for risk management. Six SOCs and seven non-offender controls (NOC) walked through three virtual risk situations, confronting the participant with a virtual child character. The participant had to choose between predefined answers representing approach or avoidance behavior. Frequency of chosen answers were analyzed in regards to knowledge of the participants about coping skills and coping skills focused during therapy. SOCs and NOCs behavior differed only in one risk scenario. Furthermore, SOCs showed in 89% of all cases a behavior not corresponding to their own belief about adequate behavior in comparable risk situations. In 62% of all cases, SOCs behaved not corresponding to coping skills they stated that therapists focused on during therapy. In 50% of all cases, SOCs behaved in correspondence to coping skills therapists stated that they focused on during therapy. Therapists predicted the behavior of SOCs in virtual risk situations incorrect in 25% of all cases. Thus, virtual risk scenarios provide the possibility for practitioners to monitor the behavior of SOCs and to test their decisions on unsupervised privileges without endangering the community. This may provide additional information for therapy progress. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the predictive and ecological validity of behavioral

Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors: Parental Concern and Concordance Between Parent and Adolescent Reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Gersh, Elon; Richardson, Laura P; Katzman, Katherine; Spielvogle, Heather; Arghira, Adriana Cristina; Zhou, Chuan; McCarty, Carolyn A

We investigated which adolescent health risk behaviors are of concern to parents generally, according to adolescent age, gender, and in the context of perceived risk. We compared adolescent and parent reports of the presence of health-risk behaviors and factors predicting agreement. Three hundred adolescents aged 13 to 18 years (mean, 14.5 years; 52% female) who presenting for well care completed an electronic screening tool used to assess health-risk behaviors. Parents completed parallel measures of their child's behavior and parental concern. Adolescent and parent reports were compared using McNemar test. Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine predictors of agreement. High parental concern was most commonly reported for screen time and diet. When parents identified their adolescent as at-risk, high parental concern was near universal for mental health but less commonly reported for substance use. There were no differences in parental concern according to adolescent gender. Parents of older adolescents expressed more concern regarding physical activity and alcohol. Compared with adolescents, parents were more likely to report risk regarding anxiety, fruit and vegetable consumption, and physical activity, and less likely to report risk regarding screen time, sleep, and marijuana use. Younger adolescent age and higher family relationship quality were predictive of stronger parent-adolescent agreement. Parents in well-care visits commonly have concerns about adolescent lifestyle behaviors. Although parents are more likely to report concern when they know about a behavior, parental concern is not always aligned with parental awareness of risk, particularly for substance use. Parent report of higher prevalence of some risk behaviors suggests their input might assist in risk identification. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk function for behavioral disruption of Blainville's beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris from mid-frequency active sonar.

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David Moretti

Full Text Available There is increasing concern about the potential effects of noise pollution on marine life in the world's oceans. For marine mammals, anthropogenic sounds may cause behavioral disruption, and this can be quantified using a risk function that relates sound exposure to a measured behavioral response. Beaked whales are a taxon of deep diving whales that may be particularly susceptible to naval sonar as the species has been associated with sonar-related mass stranding events. Here we derive the first empirical risk function for Blainville's beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris by combining in situ data from passive acoustic monitoring of animal vocalizations and navy sonar operations with precise ship tracks and sound field modeling. The hydrophone array at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center, Bahamas, was used to locate vocalizing groups of Blainville's beaked whales and identify sonar transmissions before, during, and after Mid-Frequency Active (MFA sonar operations. Sonar transmission times and source levels were combined with ship tracks using a sound propagation model to estimate the received level (RL at each hydrophone. A generalized additive model was fitted to data to model the presence or absence of the start of foraging dives in 30-minute periods as a function of the corresponding sonar RL at the hydrophone closest to the center of each group. This model was then used to construct a risk function that can be used to estimate the probability of a behavioral change (cessation of foraging the individual members of a Blainville's beaked whale population might experience as a function of sonar RL. The function predicts a 0.5 probability of disturbance at a RL of 150 dBrms re µPa (CI: 144 to 155 This is 15dB lower than the level used historically by the US Navy in their risk assessments but 10 dB higher than the current 140 dB step-function.

AIDS Risk Perception and its related factors in Women with High-Risk Behaviors in Iran

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Mahin Tafazoli

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background & aim: AIDS is one of the major public health challenges all over the world. Perceived risk is a significant predictor of high-risk behaviors related to AIDS. Women constitute more than half of the HIV patients, and the rate of female sex workers with AIDS is more than the rest of female population. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate AIDS risk perception and its related factors in females with high-risk behaviors in Mashhad, Iran. Methods:This descriptive study was performed on 58 women who were arrested on prostitution charges and imprisoned in Mashhad Vakil Abad Prison in 2013. The data were collected using self-designed questionnaires assessing knowledge regarding AIDS as well as sexual activities and also perceived risk of HIV questionnaire. One-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test, linear regression, and Chi-square tests were run, using SPSS version 16. Results: The mean score of HIV risk perception was 18.43±5.92, which was average. There was a significant relationship between the mean score of perceived risk of HIV and knowledge regarding AIDS (P=0.005, alcohol consumption (P=0.04, history of addiction (P=0.008, using contraceptive methods (P=0.01, condom use during intercourse (P=0.02, voluntary HIV testing (P=0.001, and follow-up of HIV test (P=0.009. Conclusion:The findings of the present study revealed that knowledge, alcohol consumption, history of addiction, contraceptive methods, the rate of condom use during intercourse, as well as voluntary HIV testing and follow-up were associated with perceived risk of HIV infection. Therefore, taking the necessary steps towards health promotion through appropriate training and interventional approaches seems to be mandatory for reducing high-risk behaviors in populations with low risk perception.

Protective effects of self-esteem and family support on suicide risk behaviors among at-risk adolescents.

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Sharaf, Amira Y; Thompson, Elaine A; Walsh, Elaine

2009-08-01

If and how family support and self-esteem might interact to protect against adolescent suicide risk is not well understood. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the moderating effect of family support on the relationship between self-esteem and suicide risk behaviors among potential high school dropouts (N = 849), using questionnaires and in-depth assessment interviews. Family support moderated the impact of self-esteem on suicide risk; the ameliorating effect of self-esteem was stronger among adolescents with low versus high family support. Self-esteem influences adolescent suicide risk behaviors for youth with low as well as high family support. Interventions designed to strengthen both self-esteem and support resources are appropriate.

Homeless youths' HIV risk behaviors with strangers: Investigating the importance of social networks.

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Tyler, Kimberly A

2013-11-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between homeless youths' HIV risk behaviors with strangers and risk and protective characteristics of their social networks. Data were from the Social Network and Homeless Youth Project. A total of 249 youth aged 14-21 years were interviewed over 15 months in three Midwestern cities in the United States using a systematic sampling strategy. Multivariate results revealed that homeless youth with a greater average number of network members who engaged in more drug risk behaviors and who pressured them into precarious behaviors at least once were more likely to have participated in a greater number of HIV risk behaviors with strangers compared to homeless youth without such network characteristics. Additionally, 19-21 year olds, gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered youth, and those who have run away from home more frequently, participated in more HIV risk behaviors with strangers than 14-18 year olds, heterosexual youth, and those who have run away less often. The final model explained 43 % of the variance in homeless youths' HIV risk behaviors with strangers. It is important to identify network characteristics that are harmful to homeless youth because continued exposure to such networks and participation in dangerous behaviors may result in detrimental outcomes, including contraction of sexually transmitted infections and potentially HIV.

School Bullying, Cyberbullying, or both: Correlates of Teen Suicidality in the 2011 CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey

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Messias, Erick; Kindrick, Kristi; Castro, Juan

2014-01-01

While school bullying has been shown to be associated with depression and suicidality among teens, the relationship between these outcomes and cyberbullying has not been studied in nationally representative samples. Data came from the 2011 CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), a nationally representative sample of high-school students (N=15,425). We calculated weighted estimates representative of all students in grades 9-12 attending school in the US. Logistic regression was used to calculat...

Objective identification of sexual risk behavior among blood donors in Croatia: is it reality?

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Miskulin, Maja; Puntaric, Dinko; Bozikov, Jadranka; Miskulin, Ivan; Ruzman, Natasa

2012-01-01

The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of blood donors positive for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), to identify the patterns of sexual risk behavior responsible for HSV-2 positivity and to assess the reliability of HSV-2 positivity as a marker of sexual risk behavior in the study population. This cross-sectional study included 423 blood donors of both sexes from eastern Croatia. Their blood samples were tested by ELISA IgG test kit for HSV-2 IgG and Western blot. Data on sexual risk behavior were collected by use of an anonymous questionnaire. Western blot testing showed HSV-2 IgG antibodies in 14 of 423 (3.3%) donor blood samples. The most common patterns of sexual risk behavior potentially associated with test positivity were irregular condom use during sexual intercourse with new partners (294/423; 69.5%) and > or = 5 sexual partners during lifetime (213/423; 50.4%). The population of blood donors from eastern Croatia included subgroups of subjects characterized by sexual risk behavior. Study results pointed to a relationship between various forms of sexual risk behavior and HSV-2 positivity, which could therefore serve as a reliable marker of sexual risk behavior in the study population.

[Television viewing and cardiovascular risk behaviors in the adult population of the French West Indies].

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Carrère, P; Atallah, A; Kelly-Irving, M; Lang, T; Inamo, J

2013-06-01

Recent studies have shown a link between prolonged television viewing and cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. We aimed to estimate the relationship between television viewing and CV risk behaviors and in the adult population of the French West Indies. We used data from Consant, a cross-sectional study carried out in 2007 on a representative sample of the adult Guadeloupean population (1005 subjects aged 25-74 years selected by stratified random sampling and interviewed at home by trained investigators working in pairs). Among respondents who reported watching television for 2 hours or more per day, 46.5% stated practicing no leisure time physical activity, compared with 35.6% among those who reported watching television for less than 2 hours per day. Adjusting for age, sex, education, income, family status, and perceived CV benefits of physical activity, the odds ratio of physical inactivity was estimated at 1.75 (Ptelevision for 2 hours or more per day, compared with other subjects. A similar relationship was observed when considering dieting to prevent weight gain. In this representative sample of a French Caribbean population, a strong and very significant relationship was observed between prolonged television viewing and CV risk behaviors. Prolonged television viewing seems common to a lifestyle that is characterized by little physical activity and unhealthy eating habits. This may play a role in social inequalities observed in CV diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.