WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk based limits

  1. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  2. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  3. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Limit lines for risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, D.C.; Baybutt, P.

    1982-01-01

    Approaches to the regulation of risk from technological systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical process plants, in which potential accidents may result in a broad range of adverse consequences must take into account several different aspects of risk. These include overall or average risk, accidents posing high relative risks, the rate at which accident probability decreases with increasing accident consequences, and the impact of high frequency, low consequence accidents. A hypothetical complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF), with appropriately chosen parametric form, meets all these requirements. The Farmer limit line, by contrast, places limits on the risks due to individual accident sequences, and cannot adequately account for overall risk. This reduces its usefulness as a regulatory tool. In practice, the CCDF is used in the Canadian nuclear licensing process, while the Farmer limit line approach, supplemented by separate qualitative limits on overall risk, is employed in the United Kingdom

  5. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naime, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  6. An evaluation of a risk-based environmental regulation in Brazil: Limitations to risk management of hazardous installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naime, Andre, E-mail: andre.naime.ibama@gmail.com

    2017-03-15

    The environmental regulation of hazardous projects with risk-based decision-making processes can lead to a deficient management of human exposure to technological hazards. Such an approach for regulation is criticized for simplifying the complexity of decisions involving the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the installation and operation of hazardous facilities in urban areas. Results of a Brazilian case study indicate that oil and gas transmission pipelines may represent a threat to diverse communities if the relationship between such linear projects and human populations is overlooked by regulatory bodies. Results also corroborate known challenges to the implementation of EIA processes and outline limitations to an effective environmental and risk management. Two preliminary topics are discussed to strengthen similar regulatory practices. Firstly, an effective integration between social impact assessment and risk assessment in EIA processes to have a more comprehensive understanding of the social fabric. Secondly, the advancement of traditional management practices for hazardous installations to pursue a strong transition from assessment and evaluation to management and control and to promote an effective interaction between land-use planning and environmental regulation.

  7. Calculation of risk-based detection limits for radionuclides in the liquid effluents from Korean nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Jae Hak

    2017-01-01

    In order to review if present detection limits of radionuclides in liquid effluent from nuclear power plants are effective enough to warrant compliance with regulatory discharge limits, a risk-based approach is developed to derive a new detection limit for each radionuclide based on radiological criteria. Equations and adjustment factors are also proposed to discriminate the validity of the detection limits for multiple radionuclides in the liquid effluent with or without consideration of the nuclide composition. From case studies to three nuclear power plants in Korea with actual operation data from 2006 to 2015, the present detection limits have turned out to be effective for Hanul Unit 1 but may not be sensitive enough for Kori Unit 1 (8 out of 14 radionuclides) and Wolsong Unit 1 (9 out of 42 radionuclides). However, it is shown that the present detection limits for the latter two nuclear power plants can be justified, if credit is given to the radionuclide composition. Otherwise, consideration should be given to adjustment of the present detection limits. The risk-based approach of this study can be used to determine the validity of established detection limits of a specific nuclear power plant. (author)

  8. Physics-Based Identification, Modeling and Risk Management for Aeroelastic Flutter and Limit-Cycle Oscillations (LCO), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed research program will develop a physics-based identification, modeling and risk management infrastructure for aeroelastic transonic flutter and...

  9. Dose limits cause unacceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, Sylvia.

    1985-01-01

    This paper on radiation dose limits for workers and the public discusses the following: Medical Research Council report; safety standards; risk assessment; deaths from cancers; biological radiation effects; UK legislation; low-level radiation; public concern; UKAEA staff survey; Ionising Radiations Regulations; United Nations Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation; US studies on work force in nuclear establishments; problems of extrapolation; Japanese data from Hiroshima and Nagasaki; International Commission on Radiological Protection recommendations; studies on uranium miners; UK Health and Safety Executive; UK National Radiological Protection Board. (U.K.)

  10. A Risk Based Approach to Limit the Effects of Covert Channels for Internet Sensor Data Aggregators for Sensor Privacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viecco, Camilo H.; Camp, L. Jean

    Effective defense against Internet threats requires data on global real time network status. Internet sensor networks provide such real time network data. However, an organization that participates in a sensor network risks providing a covert channel to attackers if that organization’s sensor can be identified. While there is benefit for every party when any individual participates in such sensor deployments, there are perverse incentives against individual participation. As a result, Internet sensor networks currently provide limited data. Ensuring anonymity of individual sensors can decrease the risk of participating in a sensor network without limiting data provision.

  11. Environmental risk limits for zinc

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodar CWM; SEC

    2007-01-01

    Environmental Riks Limits (ERLs) were derived for zinc. ERLs serve as advisory values to set environmental quality standards in the Netherlands. The ERLs for zinc closely follow the outcomes of earlier discussions on zinc within the Water Framework Directive and EC Regulation 793/93. The ERLs

  12. Environmental risk limits for zinc

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodar CWM; SEC

    2007-01-01

    Environmental Riks Limits (ERLs) were derived for zinc. ERLs serve as advisory values to set environmental quality standards in the Netherlands. The ERLs for zinc closely follow the outcomes of earlier discussions on zinc within the Water Framework Directive and EC Regulation 793/93. The ERLs refer

  13. Environmental risk limits for antifouling substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wezel, Annemarie P. van; Vlaardingen, P. van

    2004-01-01

    In 1989, the EU restricted the use of tributyl-tin (TBT) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) decided for a world-wide ban on TBT in 2003. As a replacement for TBT, new antifouling agents are entering the market. Environmental risk limits (ERLs) are derived for substances that are used as TBT-substitutes, i.e. the compounds Irgarol 1051, dichlofluanid, ziram, chlorothalonil and TCMTB. ERLs represent the potential risk of the substances to the ecosystem and are derived using data on (eco)toxicology and environmental chemistry. Only toxicity studies with endpoints related to population dynamics are taken into account. For Irgarol 1051 especially plants appear to be sensitive; the mode of action is inhibition of photosynthetic electron transport. Despite the higher sensitivity of the plants, the calculated ERL for water based on plants only is higher than the ERL based on all data due to the lower variability in the plant only dataset. Because there is a mechanistic basis to state that plants are the most sensitive species, we propose to base the ERL for water on the plants only dataset. As dichlofluanid is highly unstable in the water phase, it is recommended to base the ERL on the metabolites formed and not on the parent compound. No toxicity data of the studied compounds for organisms living in sediments were found, the ERLs for sediment are derived with help of the equilibrium partitioning method. For dichlofluanid and chlorothalonil the ERL for soil is directly based on terrestrial data, for Irgarol 1051 and ziram the ERL for soil is derived using equilibrium partitioning. Except for Irgarol 1051, no information was encountered in the open literature on the environmental occurrence in The Netherlands of the chemicals studied. The measured concentrations for Irgarol 1051 are close to the derived ERL. For this compound it is concluded that the species composition and thereby ecosystem functioning cannot be considered as protected

  14. Environmental risk limits for antifouling substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wezel, Annemarie P. van; Vlaardingen, P. van

    2004-03-10

    In 1989, the EU restricted the use of tributyl-tin (TBT) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) decided for a world-wide ban on TBT in 2003. As a replacement for TBT, new antifouling agents are entering the market. Environmental risk limits (ERLs) are derived for substances that are used as TBT-substitutes, i.e. the compounds Irgarol 1051, dichlofluanid, ziram, chlorothalonil and TCMTB. ERLs represent the potential risk of the substances to the ecosystem and are derived using data on (eco)toxicology and environmental chemistry. Only toxicity studies with endpoints related to population dynamics are taken into account. For Irgarol 1051 especially plants appear to be sensitive; the mode of action is inhibition of photosynthetic electron transport. Despite the higher sensitivity of the plants, the calculated ERL for water based on plants only is higher than the ERL based on all data due to the lower variability in the plant only dataset. Because there is a mechanistic basis to state that plants are the most sensitive species, we propose to base the ERL for water on the plants only dataset. As dichlofluanid is highly unstable in the water phase, it is recommended to base the ERL on the metabolites formed and not on the parent compound. No toxicity data of the studied compounds for organisms living in sediments were found, the ERLs for sediment are derived with help of the equilibrium partitioning method. For dichlofluanid and chlorothalonil the ERL for soil is directly based on terrestrial data, for Irgarol 1051 and ziram the ERL for soil is derived using equilibrium partitioning. Except for Irgarol 1051, no information was encountered in the open literature on the environmental occurrence in The Netherlands of the chemicals studied. The measured concentrations for Irgarol 1051 are close to the derived ERL. For this compound it is concluded that the species composition and thereby ecosystem functioning cannot be considered as protected.

  15. Environmental radiation standards and risk limitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocher, D.C.

    1987-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency and Nuclear Regulatory Commission have established environmental radiation standards for specific practices which correspond to limits on risk to the public that vary by several orders of magnitude and often are much less than radiation risks that are essentially unregulated, e.g., risks from radon in homes. This paper discusses a proposed framework for environmental radiation standards that would improve the correspondence with limitation of risk. This framework includes the use of limits on annual effective dose equivalent averaged over a lifetime, rather than limits on dose equivalent to whole body or any organ for each year of exposure, and consideration of exposures of younger age groups as well as adults; limits on annual effective dose equivalent averaged over a lifetime no lower than 0.25 mSv (25 mrem) per practice; maintenance of all exposures as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA); and establishment of a generally applicable de minimis dose for public exposures. Implications of the proposed regulatory framework for the current system of standards for limiting public exposures are discussed. 20 refs

  16. Risky Information: Social Limits to Risk Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Mascini (Peter)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractThis article demonstrates that systematic biases occur in (near-)accident reporting. This conclusion is based on a quantitative document analysis of 208 reports recently written by employees of an industrial company. The effectiveness of accident reporting, as an instrument for risk

  17. Reducing risks of Transfusion-transmitted infections in a resource-limited hospital-based blood bank: the case of the Yaoundé University Teaching Hospital, Cameroon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagny, C. T.; Ndoumba, A.; Laperche, S.; Murphy, E.; Mbanya, D.

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although interest in assessing risk of TTIs, very few trends in blood safety epidemiological data from resource-limited blood services are reported in the literature. This analysis aims at reporting trends in seroprevalences of TTIs in blood donations in the Yaoundé University Teaching Hospital (UTH) from 2011 to 2015 and to describe reasons for these changes. Materials and Methods All donations of 2015 were tested for HIV 1&2 antibodies and the P24 antigen, HBsAg, HCV antibody and the Treponema pallidum antibody. Screening for HIV uses a national algorithm based on the systematic use of two assays of different principles: a rapid determination testing assay and an EIA HIV 1 & 2 Ab-Ag. The tests used for HBsAg and HCVAb screening were all based on EIA techniques. Treponema pallidum antibody screening was based on Treponema Pallidum hemagglutination assay (TPHA) and rapid immunochromatographic test (RIT). Screening techniques and results from 2015 were compared to retrospective data from 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Results In 2015, 13·4% (n = 214) of 1,596 blood donations were seropositive for at least one screened TTIs. The most frequent serological marker was HBsAg with 123 (7·7%) blood units contaminated. Nineteen (1·2%) and 18 (1·1%) blood units was positive for HIV and syphilis, respectively. There was a significant decrease in the total number of blood donations (P < 10−4) and HIV, HBsAg and syphilis seroprevalences and an increase in the proportion of voluntary non-remunerated blood donor (P < 0·05). HCVAb seroprevalence was 3·8% in 2015 and has not decreased significantly over the years (P = 0·09). Conclusion Significant progress is noted in reduction in seroprevalences of HIV, HBV, HCV and syphilis since the beginning of a regular registration of data in 1990. PMID:28484511

  18. Quality expectations and tolerance limits of trial master files (TMF) - Developing a risk-based approach for quality assessments of TMFs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Arthur; Busch-Heidger, Barbara; Gertzen, Heiner; Pfister, Heike; Ruhfus, Birgit; Sanden, Per-Holger; Schmidt, Gabriele B

    2015-01-01

    This article addresses the question of when a trial master file (TMF) can be considered sufficiently accurate and complete: What attributes does the TMF need to have so that a clinical trial can be adequately reconstructed from documented data and procedures? Clinical trial sponsors face significant challenges in assembling the TMF, especially when dealing with large, international, multicenter studies; despite all newly introduced archiving techniques it is becoming more and more difficult to ensure that the TMF is complete. This is directly reflected in the number of inspection findings reported and published by the EMA in 2014. Based on quality risk management principles in clinical trials the authors defined the quality expectations for the different document types in a TMF and furthermore defined tolerance limits for missing documents. This publication provides guidance on what type of documents and processes are most important, and in consequence, indicates on which documents and processes trial team staff should focus in order to achieve a high-quality TMF. The members of this working group belong to the CQAG Group (Clinical Quality Assurance Germany) and are QA (quality assurance) experts (auditors or compliance functions) with long-term experience in the practical handling of TMFs.

  19. Quality expectations and tolerance limits of trial master files (TMF) – Developing a risk-based approach for quality assessments of TMFs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Arthur; Busch-Heidger, Barbara; Gertzen, Heiner; Pfister, Heike; Ruhfus, Birgit; Sanden, Per-Holger; Schmidt, Gabriele B.

    2015-01-01

    This article addresses the question of when a trial master file (TMF) can be considered sufficiently accurate and complete: What attributes does the TMF need to have so that a clinical trial can be adequately reconstructed from documented data and procedures? Clinical trial sponsors face significant challenges in assembling the TMF, especially when dealing with large, international, multicenter studies; despite all newly introduced archiving techniques it is becoming more and more difficult to ensure that the TMF is complete. This is directly reflected in the number of inspection findings reported and published by the EMA in 2014. Based on quality risk management principles in clinical trials the authors defined the quality expectations for the different document types in a TMF and furthermore defined tolerance limits for missing documents. This publication provides guidance on what type of documents and processes are most important, and in consequence, indicates on which documents and processes trial team staff should focus in order to achieve a high-quality TMF. The members of this working group belong to the CQAG Group (Clinical Quality Assurance Germany) and are QA (quality assurance) experts (auditors or compliance functions) with long-term experience in the practical handling of TMFs. PMID:26693218

  20. Quality expectations and tolerance limits of trial master files (TMF – Developing a risk-based approach for quality assessments of TMFs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hecht, Arthur

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the question of when a trial master file (TMF can be considered sufficiently accurate and complete: What attributes does the TMF need to have so that a clinical trial can be adequately reconstructed from documented data and procedures? Clinical trial sponsors face significant challenges in assembling the TMF, especially when dealing with large, international, multicenter studies; despite all newly introduced archiving techniques it is becoming more and more difficult to ensure that the TMF is complete. This is directly reflected in the number of inspection findings reported and published by the EMA in 2014. Based on quality risk management principles in clinical trials the authors defined the quality expectations for the different document types in a TMF and furthermore defined tolerance limits for missing documents. This publication provides guidance on what type of documents and processes are most important, and in consequence, indicates on which documents and processes trial team staff should focus in order to achieve a high-quality TMF.The members of this working group belong to the CQAG Group (Clinical Quality Assurance Germany and are QA (quality assurance experts (auditors or compliance functions with long-term experience in the practical handling of TMFs.

  1. Hanford Waste Vitrification Project Building limited scope risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D.J.; Lindberg, S.E.; Reardon, M.F.; Wilson, G.P.

    1992-10-01

    A limited scope risk assessment was performed on the preliminary design of a high-level waste interim storage facility. The Canister Storage Building (CSB) facility will be built to support remediation at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State. The CSB will be part of the support facilities for a high level Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP). The limited scope risk assessment is based on a preliminary design which uses forced air circulation systems to move air through the building vault. The current building design calls for natural circulation to move air through the building vault

  2. Bases for establishing radiation exposure limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1977-01-01

    It is an essential requirement of good radiation protection that all unnecessary exposure of people should be avoided and that any necessary exposure, whether of workers or of members of the general public, should be minimised. It is, however, an additional requirement that such necessary exposures should not exceed certain stated limits. These principles are based on the possibility that even the smallest exposures may involve some risk of harm, that any risk of harm should be justifiable by the circumstances necessitating it, and that risk should always be limited to an appropriately low level. The bases for establishing exposure limits must therefore involve an assessment of the risk involved in any form of radiation exposure, and an opinion as to the degree of safety that should be ensured in circumstances which necessitate any occupational or public exposure to radiation. There is increasing quantitative evidence on the frequency on which harm, and particularly the induction of malignancies, may be caused in people exposed to radiation at high doses; and somewhat clearer bases than previously for inferring the possible frequencies at low doses. It is therefore easier to assess the degree of safety ensured by restricting radiation exposure to particular levels. The degree of safety which should be regarded as appropriate in different circumstances remains a matter for review, but suggestions are made as to levels which would be advocated by informed opinion, and the exposure limits which would correspond to these. It is clear also that a comparable degree of safety should be ensured whether the radiation exposure involves the whole body more of less uniformly, or individual tissues or organs selectively. Increasing epidemiological evidence is available on the relative sensitivity to radiation induction of malignancies in a number of organs, and to the apparently much lower sensitivity of other organs; and experimental evidence in animals allows a comparable

  3. Cost tradeoffs in consequence management at nuclear power plants: A risk based approach to setting optimal long-term interdiction limits for regulatory analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mubayi, V.

    1995-05-01

    The consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants can be limited by various protective actions, including emergency responses and long-term measures, to reduce exposures of affected populations. Each of these protective actions involve costs to society. The costs of the long-term protective actions depend on the criterion adopted for the allowable level of long-term exposure. This criterion, called the ''long term interdiction limit,'' is expressed in terms of the projected dose to an individual over a certain time period from the long-term exposure pathways. The two measures of offsite consequences, latent cancers and costs, are inversely related and the choice of an interdiction limit is, in effect, a trade-off between these two measures. By monetizing the health effects (through ascribing a monetary value to life lost), the costs of the two consequence measures vary with the interdiction limit, the health effect costs increasing as the limit is relaxed and the protective action costs decreasing. The minimum of the total cost curve can be used to calculate an optimal long term interdiction limit. The calculation of such an optimal limit is presented for each of five US nuclear power plants which were analyzed for severe accident risk in the NUREG-1150 program by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  4. Bases for establishing radiation exposure limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1977-01-01

    It is an essential requirement of good radiation protection that all unnecessary exposure of people should be avoided and that any necessary exposure, whether of workers or of members of the general public, should be minimized. It is, however, an additional requirement that such necessary exposures should not exceed certain stated limits. These principles are based on the possibility that even the smallest exposures may involve some risk of harm, that any risk of harm should be justifiable by the circumstances necessitating it, and that risk should always be limited to an appropriately low level. The bases for establishing exposure limits must therefore involve an assessment of the risk involved in any form of radiation exposure, and an opinion as to the degree of safety that should be ensured in circumstances which necessitate any occupational or public exposure to radiation. There is increasing quantitative evidence on the frequency on which harm, and particularly the induction of malignancies, may be caused in people exposed to radiation at high doses; and somewhat clearer bases than previously for inferring the possible frequencies at low doses. It is therefore easier to assess the degree of safety ensured by restricting radiation exposure to particular levels. It is clear also that a comparable degree of safety should be ensured whether the radiation exposure involves the whole body more of less uniformly, or individual tissues or organs selectively. The ''weighting'' factors appropriate to irradiation of particular tissues from internal emitters can thus be defined in terms of their likely individual contributions to the harm of whole-body irradiation. In this way the limits for different modes of exposure by external or internal radiation can be related so as to ensure that protection should be equally effective for different distributions of absorbed dose in the body. In particular, the over-simplified concept of a single critical organ determining the

  5. 31 CFR 223.11 - Limitation of risk: Protective methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation of risk: Protective methods. 223.11 Section 223.11 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance... BUSINESS WITH THE UNITED STATES § 223.11 Limitation of risk: Protective methods. The limitation of risk...

  6. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  7. 46 CFR 249.8 - Limitation on risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Limitation on risk. 249.8 Section 249.8 Shipping... OPERATORS APPROVAL OF UNDERWRITERS FOR MARINE HULL INSURANCE § 249.8 Limitation on risk. (a) Underwriters may take a line on any single risk in excess of five percent of its Policyholders' Surplus only with...

  8. Transcending the limits. The psychology of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.

    1993-01-01

    As long as communication and learning remains a undirectional process, the public will continue to refuse plans for carrying out conflicts and to communicate about risk. Public awareness and common sense cannot replace science and politics but they certainly can enrich them. At the same time, the public will to accept rational concepts for decision-making should increase if the deciders take the criteria and demands of the public seriously. (orig.) [de

  9. Radiation risk factors and dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barendsen, G.W.

    1979-01-01

    The contents of the ICRP publications 9 (1965) and 26 (1977) are outlined and the research conducted during these years considered. Expressions are derived for the frequency for induction of cancer from the most common irradiations - X rays, gamma rays and electrons. The dose limits advised by the ICRP are discussed and the first two fundamental principles are presented - that no one should be subjected to radiation without useful cause and that in those cases where irradiation is thought necessary, the medical, scientific, social and economic advantages need to be carefully considered with respect to the possible disadvantages. (C.F.)

  10. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  11. Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

    2009-01-01

    Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

  12. Limiting Future Proliferation and Security Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.

    2011-01-01

    A major new technical tool for evaluation of proliferation and security risks has emerged over the past decade as part the activities of the Generation IV International Forum. The tool has been developed by a consensus group from participating countries and organizations and is termed the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR and PP) Evaluation Methodology. The methodology defines a set of challenges, analyzes system response to these challenges, and assesses outcomes. The challenges are the threats posed by potential actors (proliferant states or sub-national adversaries). It is of paramount importance in an evaluation to establish the objectives, capabilities, resources, and strategies of the adversary as well as the design and protection contexts. Technical and institutional characteristics are both used to evaluate the response of the system and to determine its resistance against proliferation threats and robustness against sabotage and terrorism threats. The outcomes of the system response are expressed in terms of a set of measures, which thereby define the PR and PP characteristics of the system. This paper summarizes results of applications of the methodology to nuclear energy systems including reprocessing facilities and large and small modular reactors. The use of the methodology in the design phase a facility will be discussed as it applies to future safeguards concepts.

  13. Pill organizers and pill cutters: risks and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borja-Oliveira, Caroline Ribeiro de

    2013-02-01

    In this essay, based on documental analysis, the limitations associated with the use of pill organizers and cutters are discussed and analyzed as a matter of public health. The use of the organizers for storing and carrying tablets and capsules exposes these medications to environmental factors from which their original packaging protected them, compromising their stability and safeness. Cutters also pose the additional risk of causing loss of efficacy, adverse reactions and overdose. On the other hand, the user carrying their own medication reflects the balance between autonomy and self-care, and splitting is sometimes required to comply with certain regimens. It can be concluded that healthcare professionals should observe and guide patients and caregivers in order to avoid risks.

  14. A Risk-Limiting Audit In Denmark: A Pilot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schürmann, Carsten

    2017-01-01

    The theory of risk-limiting audits is well-understood, at least mathematically. Such audits serve to create confidence in the reported election outcome by checking the evidence created during the election. When election officials introduce election technologies into the voting process, it is best...... to do this after the appropriate auditing framework has been implemented. In this paper, we describe our experiences with piloting a risk-limiting audit of a referendum that was held in Denmark on December 3, 2015. At the time of the publication of this paper, Denmark’s election law did not permit...... electronic voting technologies to be used during voting allowing us to study auditing in isolation. Our findings are that (1) risk-limiting audits also apply to paper and pencil elections; (2) election officials usually support risk-limiting audits even if no voting technologies are used because these audits...

  15. Radiofrequency fields: Bases for exposure limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paolo Vecchia [Department of Technologies and Health National Institute of Health, Rome (Italy)

    2006-07-01

    Several biological effects have been reported at exposure levels below the threshold for thermal effects, but most of them require independent confirmation before being accepted as established. However, no seems to have relevant implications for human health. Precautionary measures should be based on a cost/benefit analysis, and be proportionate on one side to the risk they aim at preventing and on the other side to actions taken in other areas to prevent comparable risks. (N.C.)

  16. Radiofrequency fields: Bases for exposure limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Vecchia

    2006-01-01

    Several biological effects have been reported at exposure levels below the threshold for thermal effects, but most of them require independent confirmation before being accepted as established. However, no seems to have relevant implications for human health. Precautionary measures should be based on a cost/benefit analysis, and be proportionate on one side to the risk they aim at preventing and on the other side to actions taken in other areas to prevent comparable risks. (N.C.)

  17. Prevention and risks limitation of the radioactive installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Segundo, T.

    1983-01-01

    Associated risks to the ionizing radiation, in general, and to the radioactive installations, in particular, are exposed; as well as the prevention and limitation techniques applied in order to keep risk into acceptable levels are detatched. Finally, the effect in the human life of the radioactivity use and other activities are compared and man-made occupational and public exposures are explained. (author)

  18. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  19. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  20. Community Alternatives for Love and Limits (CALL: A community-based family strengthening multi-family intervention program to respond to adolescents at risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Wilkerson

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Family strengthening has become a source of growing interest, research, and program design in the fields of prevention and treatment for problems of youth delinquency, school failure, alcohol, tobacco and other drug abuse (ATOD. Despite many studies that illustrate the positive outcomes of family strengthening programs and family-focused interventions, their use in communities has not advanced commensurate with their promise. This article offers a rationale for why programming efforts should continue to be directed towards family strengthening efforts as opposed to youth-focused only interventions. In addition, a community-based, family-strengthening alternative is described that addresses issues of youth delinquency while reducing barriers associated with availability, accessibility, and cost.

  1. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  2. Automatic Margin Computation for Risk-Limiting Audits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beckert, Bernhard; Kirsten, Michael; Klebanov, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    A risk-limiting audit is a statistical method to create confidence in the correctness of an election result by checking samples of paper ballots. In order to perform an audit, one usually needs to know what the election margin is, i.e., the number of votes that would need to be changed in order...

  3. 31 CFR 223.10 - Limitation of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation of risk. 223.10 Section 223.10 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERVICE SURETY COMPANIES DOING BUSINESS WITH THE...

  4. Revision of risk estimates and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    It has been apparent for some time that our estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation must be increased above those values reported by UNSCEAR in 1977 an dused by ICRP to form their present recommendations. NRPB foresaw some of these changes and introduced interim advice within the UK to restrict exposures of wordkers and members of the public to levels below the existing limits. Since that advice was given, UNSCEAR has produced a 1988 report reviewing human data to provide new estimates of risks associated with exposure at high doses and high doserates. These risk figures are up to 4 times higher than when UNSCEAR reported in 1977. In this paper, the reasons for the changes in the estimates of risk will be described and the current NRPB guidelines for risk factors for protection purposes will be presented. The implications of these new risk factors for the setting of dose limits will then be discussed. (Author). 10 refs.; 2 tabs

  5. Efficacy of a virtual assistance-based lifestyle intervention in reducing risk factors for Type 2 diabetes in young employees in the information technology industry in India: LIMIT, a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, T; Kumaran, K; Joglekar, C; Bhat, D; Kulkarni, R; Nanivadekar, A; Yajnik, C

    2017-04-01

    To investigate a virtual assistance-based lifestyle intervention to reduce risk factors for Type 2 diabetes in young employees in the information technology industry in India. LIMIT (Lifestyle Modification in Information Technology) was a parallel-group, partially blinded, randomized controlled trial. Employees in the information technology industry with ≥3 risk factors (family history of cardiometabolic disease, overweight/obesity, high blood pressure, impaired fasting glucose, hypertriglyceridaemia, high LDL cholesterol and low HDL cholesterol) from two industries were randomized to a control or an intervention (1:1) group. After initial lifestyle advice, the intervention group additionally received reinforcement through mobile phone messages (three per week) and e-mails (two per week) for 1 year. The primary outcome was change in prevalence of overweight/obesity, analysed by intention to treat. Of 437 employees screened (mean age 36.2 ± 9.3 years; 74.8% men), 265 (61.0%) were eligible and randomized into control (n=132) or intervention (n=133) group. After 1 year, the prevalence of overweight/obesity reduced by 6.0% in the intervention group and increased by 6.8% in the control group (risk difference 11.2%; 95% CI 1.2-21.1; P=0.042). There were also significant improvements in lifestyle measurements, waist circumference, and total and LDL cholesterol in the intervention group. The number-needed-to-treat to prevent one case of overweight/obesity in 1 year was 9 (95% CI 5-82), with an incremental cost of INR10665 (£112.30) per case treated/prevented. A total of 98% of participants found the intervention acceptable. A virtual assistance-based lifestyle intervention was effective, cost-effective and acceptable in reducing risk factors for diabetes in young employees in the information technology industry, and is potentially scalable. © 2016 Diabetes UK.

  6. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  7. Security breaches: tips for assessing and limiting your risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coons, Leeanne R

    2011-01-01

    As part of their compliance planning, medical practices should undergo a risk assessment to determine any vulnerability within the practice relative to security breaches. Practices should also implement safeguards to limit their risks. Such safeguards include facility access controls, information and electronic media management, use of business associate agreements, and education and enforcement. Implementation of specific policies and procedures to address security incidents is another critical step that medical practices should take as part of their security incident prevention plan. Medical practices should not only develop policies and procedures to prevent, detect, contain, and correct security violations, but should make sure that such policies and procedures are actually implemented in their everyday operations.

  8. Current estimates of radiation risks and implications for dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    The publication of the 1988 report of UNSCEAR represents a major step forward in that there is an international consensus on the estimation of risk from exposure to ionising radiation. The estimates of fatal cancers in the UNSCEAR report are up to 4 times the values in the 1977 review. This paper will describe the reasons for the increase, the remaining uncertainties and the implications for dose limits in occupational and public exposure. (author)

  9. Can Diet and Physical Activity Limit Alzheimer's Disease Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rege, Shraddha D; Geetha, Thangiah; Broderick, Tom L; Babu, Jeganathan Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease affecting elderly individuals at an alarming rate. It has become a global health crisis imposing tremendous social and economic burden on society. Although there is no cure for AD, it is important to identify and implement preventive strategies that may delay or prevent the symptoms, limit the burden, and improve the quality of life of those afflicted. Adequate nutrition and physical activity are the two potential lifestyle modifiable factors that have gained considerable interest for their potential in the prevention or management of this challenging disease. In this review, we discuss the beneficial effects of physical activity and adequate nutrition on minimizing the risk of developing AD. The research question was initially formulated in a structured and explicit way. Relevant studies were identified using a wide range of scientific databases. Their potential relevance was based on the criteria for inclusion and exclusion. The quality of selected studies was subjected to a more precise quality assessment using standard tools. A detailed description of the implemented intervention and how it differed from what the control group received was outlined. The effects of intervention on measurable outcomes for the study sample were applied. One hundred and sixty-four references were included in the review comprising of epidemiological, longitudinal, cross-sectional, intervention and randomized controlled studies. This review highlighted the effect of various nutrient diet supplements on cognitive performance in humans as well as animals with AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Moreover, the effect of physical exercise on the cognitive function in animal models with AD was outlined. The findings of this review highlight the therapeutic potential of combination of nutritionally adequate diet and physical activity in preventing or delaying the symptoms associated with AD pathology.

  10. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  11. Electro smog. Health risks, limiting values, consumer protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karus, M.; Ebert, L.; Schneider, W.; Koehnecke, W.; Loefflad, H.; Plotzke, O.; Niessen, P.

    1994-01-01

    At first, the popular book describes physical facts. All terms and units being necessary for the comprehension of electro smog are presented and referred to practice: Which electric and magnetic fields of natural and technical origin appear in everyday life? The main part of the book occupies physical effects. The current scientific state of the research is presented: Are electric and magnetic fields a physical risk factor? In the chapter 'limiting values', the valid limiting values and their conceptional and political basis are discussed. The last part of the book addresses consumer protection: How can the own load be reduced through electric and magnetic fields of electric devices and installations, computers and mobile telephones without renouncing of electric comfort. (VHE) [de

  12. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  13. Limited probabilistic risk assessment applications in plant backfitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desaedeleer, G.

    1987-01-01

    Plant backfitting programs are defined on the basis of deterministic (e.g. Systematic Evaluation Program) or probabilistic (e.g. Probabilistic Risk Assessment) approaches. Each approach provides valuable assets in defining the program and has its own advantages and disadvantages. Ideally one should combine the strong points of each approach. This chapter summarizes actual experience gained from combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to define and implement PWR backfitting programs. Such combinations relate to limited applications of probabilistic techniques and are illustrated for upgrading fluid systems. These evaluations allow sound and rational optimization systems upgrade. However, the boundaries of the reliability analysis need to be clearly defined and system reliability may have to go beyond classical boundaries (e.g. identification of weak links in support systems). Also the implementation of upgrade on a system per system basis is not necessarily cost-effective. (author)

  14. Risk limitation, safety and environmental compatibility in electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelini, A.M.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the problem of meeting future electricity needs while at the same time reducing to a minimum the risks, the pollution of air and water and the environmental effects of power stations. The first resource to exploit is the ''virtual source'' represented by energy saving pursued to the limit of the possible. The second, in order of priority, is that of renewable resources as yet unused and under development. Unfortunately, in most countries these latter resources are far from sufficient: it is then necessary to choose between the use of conventional fossil fuels and nuclear fuels. In this paper it is shown that, of all the possible fossil fuels, only coal can be considered for electricity production. As a result, in meeting new electricity needs, the choice will have to be made between coal and nuclear power. Attention is directed to factors having a significant influence on this choice, particularly the risks and safety problems in the widest sense, with a view to making a global evaluation comprising not just generating stations but the entire production cycle, from the search for the primary source to the supplying of electricity to the user. The most important problems that arise in this connection are briefly analysed in the paper, which concludes with an appeal for more objectivity in providing information on energy, such information being at present very ''polluted'' and exerting a major influence on the views of experts. (author)

  15. Risk assessment applications for determining cleanup limits for uranium in treated and untreated soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, A.Q.; Layton, D.W.; Rutz, E.E.

    1994-01-01

    Uranium-contaminated soils are present at various locations across the US where uranium was processed for nuclear fuels or atomic weapons. Important issues relative to such contamination include the assessment of potential health risks associated with human exposures to the residual uranium and the determination of safe levels of uranium in soils that have been treated by a given technology. This paper discusses various risk assessment considerations that must be dealt with when developing cleanup limits for uranium in treated and untreated soils. Key issues addressed include alternative land use scenarios, potential exposure pathways, characterization of the bioavailability of uranium compounds in food and water, a brief overview of health risks associated with uranium and its daughter products as well as a summary of considerations for development of risk-based cleanup limits for uranium in soils

  16. Activity Limitation Stages Are Associated With Risk of Hospitalization Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Ling; Pan, Qiang; Xie, Dawei; Kurichi, Jibby E; Streim, Joel E; Bogner, Hillary R; Saliba, Debra; Hennessy, Sean

    2017-05-01

    Activity limitation stages based on activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) are associated with 3-year mortality in elderly Medicare beneficiaries, yet their associations with hospitalization risk in this population have not been studied. To examine the independent association of activity limitation stages with risk of hospitalization within a year among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older. Cohort study. Community. A total of 9447 community-dwelling elderly Medicare beneficiaries from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey for years 2005-2009. Stages were derived for ADLs and IADLs separately. Associations of stages with time to first hospitalization and time to recurrent hospitalizations within a year were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, with which we accounted for baseline sociodemographics, smoking status, comorbidities, and the year of survey entry. Time to first hospitalization and time to recurrent hospitalizations within 1 year. The adjusted risk of first hospitalization increased with greater activity limitation stages (except stage III). The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for ADL stages I-IV compared with stage 0 (no limitations) were 1.49 (1.36-1.63), 1.61 (1.44-1.80), 1.54 (1.35-1.76), and 2.06 (1.61-2.63), respectively. The pattern for IADL stages was similar. For recurrent hospitalizations, activity limitation stages were associated with the risk of the first hospitalization but not with subsequent hospitalizations. Activity limitation stages are associated with the risk of first hospitalization in the subsequent year among elderly Medicare beneficiaries. Stages capture clinically interpretable profiles of ADL and IADL functionality and describe preserved functions and activity limitation in an aggregated measure. Stage can inform interventions to ameliorate disability and thus reduce the risk of a subsequent hospitalization in this population. IV. Copyright © 2017

  17. A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

    2011-05-01

    Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. Limitations of the planning organ at risk volume (PRV) concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroom, Joep C; Heijmen, Ben J M

    2006-09-01

    Previously, we determined a planning target volume (PTV) margin recipe for geometrical errors in radiotherapy equal to M(T) = 2 Sigma + 0.7 sigma, with Sigma and sigma standard deviations describing systematic and random errors, respectively. In this paper, we investigated margins for organs at risk (OAR), yielding the so-called planning organ at risk volume (PRV). For critical organs with a maximum dose (D(max)) constraint, we calculated margins such that D(max) in the PRV is equal to the motion averaged D(max) in the (moving) clinical target volume (CTV). We studied margins for the spinal cord in 10 head-and-neck cases and 10 lung cases, each with two different clinical plans. For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, we also investigated whether a margin recipe was feasible. For the 20 spinal cords considered, the average margin recipe found was: M(R) = 1.6 Sigma + 0.2 sigma with variations for systematic and random errors of 1.2 Sigma to 1.8 Sigma and -0.2 sigma to 0.6 sigma, respectively. The variations were due to differences in shape and position of the dose distributions with respect to the cords. The recipe also depended significantly on the volume definition of D(max). For critical organs with a dose-volume constraint, the PRV concept appears even less useful because a margin around, e.g., the rectum changes the volume in such a manner that dose-volume constraints stop making sense. The concept of PRV for planning of radiotherapy is of limited use. Therefore, alternative ways should be developed to include geometric uncertainties of OARs in radiotherapy planning.

  19. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  20. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  1. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  2. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  3. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  4. Limitations of correlation-based redatuming methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera P, D. F.; Schleicher, J.; van der Neut, J.

    2017-12-01

    Redatuming aims to correct seismic data for the consequences of an acquisition far from the target. That includes the effects of an irregular acquisition surface and of complex geological structures in the overburden such as strong lateral heterogeneities or layers with low or very high velocity. Interferometric techniques can be used to relocate sources to positions where only receivers are available and have been used to move acquisition geometries to the ocean bottom or transform data between surface-seismic and vertical seismic profiles. Even if no receivers are available at the new datum, the acquisition system can be relocated to any datum in the subsurface to which the propagation of waves can be modeled with sufficient accuracy. By correlating the modeled wavefield with seismic surface data, one can carry the seismic acquisition geometry from the surface closer to geologic horizons of interest. Specifically, we show the derivation and approximation of the one-sided seismic interferometry equation for surface-data redatuming, conveniently using Green’s theorem for the Helmholtz equation with density variation. Our numerical examples demonstrate that correlation-based single-boundary redatuming works perfectly in a homogeneous overburden. If the overburden is inhomogeneous, primary reflections from deeper interfaces are still repositioned with satisfactory accuracy. However, in this case artifacts are generated as a consequence of incorrectly redatumed overburden multiples. These artifacts get even worse if the complete wavefield is used instead of the direct wavefield. Therefore, we conclude that correlation-based interferometric redatuming of surface-seismic data should always be applied using direct waves only, which can be approximated with sufficient quality if a smooth velocity model for the overburden is available.

  5. Limitations of high dose carrier based formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Stewart; Traini, Daniela; Tweedie, Alan; Lewis, David; Church, Tanya; Young, Paul M

    2018-06-10

    This study was performed to investigate how increasing the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) content within a formulation affects the dispersion of particles and the aerosol performance efficiency of a carrier based dry powder inhalable (DPI) formulation, using a custom dry powder inhaler (DPI) development rig. Five formulations with varying concentrations of API beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP) between 1% and 30% (w/w) were formulated as a multi-component carrier system containing coarse lactose and fine lactose with magnesium stearate. The morphology of the formulation and each component were investigated using scanning electron micrographs while the particle size was measured by laser diffraction. The aerosol performance, in terms of aerodynamic diameter, was assessed using the British pharmacopeia Apparatus E cascade impactor (Next generation impactor). Chemical analysis of the API was observed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Increasing the concentration of BDP in the blend resulted in increasing numbers and size of individual agglomerates and densely packed BDP multi-layers on the surface of the lactose carrier. BDP present within the multi-layer did not disperse as individual primary particles but as dense agglomerates, which led to a decrease in aerosol performance and increased percentage of BDP deposition within the Apparatus E induction port and pre-separator. As the BDP concentration in the blends increases, aerosol performance of the formulation decreases, in an inversely proportional manner. Concurrently, the percentage of API deposition in the induction port and pre-separator could also be linked to the amount of micronized particles (BDP and Micronized composite carrier) present in the formulation. The effect of such dose increase on the behaviour of aerosol dispersion was investigated to gain greater insight in the development and optimisation of higher dosed carrier-based formulations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  6. The stochastic risks of radioactive radiation - risk assessment, risk proportions, dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1990-01-01

    The latest data on the delayed injury to the a-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveal that the effects of radiation are more severe than was estimated in the past. However, the application of these data to small dose rate radiation exposure over longer periods of time leads to an overestimation of the actual risk. The future supersonic aviation schemes for altitudes within 20,000 m should include early personnel check-ups for assessment of the required protective measures. (orig./DG) [de

  7. Scrape-off layer based modelling of the density limit in beryllated JET limiter discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borrass, K.; Campbell, D.J.; Clement, S.; Vlases, G.C.

    1993-01-01

    The paper gives a scrape-off layer based interpretation of the density limit in beryllated JET limiter discharges. In these discharges, JET edge parameters show a complicated time evolution as the density limit is approached and the limit is manifested as a non-disruptive density maximum which cannot be exceeded by enhanced gas puffing. The occurrence of Marfes, the manner of density control and details of recycling are essential elements of the interpretation. Scalings for the maximum density are given and compared with JET data. The relation to disruptive density limits, previously observed in JET carbon limiter discharges, and to density limits in divertor discharges is discussed. (author). 18 refs, 10 figs, 1 tab

  8. Rhythmic Interlimb Coordination Impairments and the Risk for Developing Mobility Limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Eric G; Leveille, Suzanne G; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M; Travison, Thomas; Kennedy, David N; Tucker, Katherine L; Al Snih, Soham; Markides, Kyriakos S; Bean, Jonathan F

    2017-08-01

    The identification of novel rehabilitative impairments that are risk factors for mobility limitations may improve their prevention and treatment among older adults. We tested the hypothesis that impaired rhythmic interlimb ankle and shoulder coordination are risk factors for subsequent mobility limitations among older adults. We conducted a 1-year prospective cohort study of community-dwelling older adults (N = 99) aged 67 years and older who did not have mobility limitations (Short Physical Performance Battery score > 9) at baseline. Participants performed antiphase coordination of the right and left ankles or shoulders while paced by an auditory metronome. Using multivariable logistic regression, we determined odds ratios (ORs) for mobility limitations at 1-year follow-up as a function of coordination variability and asymmetry. After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, Mini-Mental State Examination score, number of chronic conditions, and baseline Short Physical Performance Battery score, ORs were significant for developing mobility limitations based on a 1 SD difference in the variability of ankle (OR = 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16-3.05) and shoulder (OR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.17-3.29) coordination. ORs were significant for asymmetry of shoulder (OR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.25-3.57), but not ankle (OR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.59-1.55) coordination. Similar results were found in unadjusted analyses. The results support our hypothesis that impaired interlimb ankle and shoulder coordination are risk factors for the development of mobility limitations. Future work is needed to further examine the peripheral and central mechanisms underlying this relationship and to test whether enhancing coordination alters mobility limitations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Feon W; Gao, Xiang; Bao, Le; Mitchell, Diane C; Wood, Craig; Sliwinski, Martin J; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen; Still, Christopher D; Rolston, David D K; Jensen, Gordon L

    2017-07-01

    To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to construct a risk stratification algorithm for developing functional limitation based on BMI and other potential risk factors for disability in 1,951 older adults without functional limitations at baseline (baseline age 73.1 ± 4.2 y). We also analyzed the data with multivariate stepwise logistic regression and compared the two approaches (e.g., cross-validation). Over a mean of 9.2 ± 1.7 years of follow-up, 221 individuals developed functional limitation. Higher BMI, age, and comorbidity were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline using both methods. Based on these factors, individuals were stratified into four risk groups via the conditional inference tree analysis. Compared to the low-risk group, all other groups had a significantly higher risk of developing functional limitation. The odds ratio comparing two extreme categories was 9.09 (95% confidence interval: 4.68, 17.6). Higher BMI, age, and comorbid disease were consistently identified as significant risk factors for functional decline among older individuals across all approaches and analyses. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  10. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  11. The Politics of Co-Production: Risks, Limits and Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flinders, Matthew; Wood, Matthew; Cunningham, Malaika

    2016-01-01

    Co-production is a risky method of social inquiry. It is time-consuming, ethically complex, emotionally demanding, inherently unstable, vulnerable to external shocks, subject to competing demands and it challenges many disciplinary norms. This is what makes it so fresh and innovative. And yet these research-related risks are rarely discussed and,…

  12. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  13. Consumption risk sharing with private information and limited enforcement

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Broer, T.; Kapička, Marek; Klein, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 23, January (2017), s. 170-190 ISSN 1094-2025 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : consumption insurance * private information * limited enforcement Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.053, year: 2016

  14. Consumption risk sharing with private information and limited enforcement

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Broer, T.; Kapička, Marek; Klein, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 23, January (2017), s. 170-190 ISSN 1094-2025 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : consumption insurance * private information * limited enforcement Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.053, year: 2016

  15. Potentials and limitations of hazard indices for the determination of risk potentials of disposed toxic wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, Gerald

    1989-01-01

    Hazard indices are often used for the determination of risk potentials arising from the geological disposal of toxic wastes. They are based on simplified models for the calculation of potential health effects caused by the wastes. The attractiveness of hazard indices lies in their simplicity which nevertheless results in reliable data on necessary isolation times and the most toxic nuclides of a waste. They also make possible comparisons of the potential risks of different wastes. After a discussion of the processes that control the behavior of toxic wastes in the environment after a failure of the geological barriers, a new hazard index is presented. Originally developed for nuclear wastes, it is the first which involves the joint consideration of the composition of a waste, the probability for transport of waste nuclides to man, their toxicity, and the time-dependent changes of the risk potentials which are caused by radioactive buildup and decay processes after the waste has entered the biosphere. The new hazard index makes possible the calculation of risk potentials at a given time of release and time period of concern thereafter. Sample calculations for different nuclear wastes show the importance of the model improvements on resulting time-dependent risk potentials. Applicability of the new hazard index to non-nuclear wastes is described. Potentials and limitations of comparative risk assessments using hazard indices are discussed. (author)

  16. Limits of Risk Predictability in a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Korniss, Gyorgy; Bakdash, Jonathan Z; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

    2017-07-27

    Most risk analysis models systematically underestimate the probability and impact of catastrophic events (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, and terrorism) by not taking into account interconnectivity and interdependence of risks. To address this weakness, we propose the Cascading Alternating Renewal Process (CARP) to forecast interconnected global risks. However, assessments of the model's prediction precision are limited by lack of sufficient ground truth data. Here, we establish prediction precision as a function of input data size by using alternative long ground truth data generated by simulations of the CARP model with known parameters. We illustrate the approach on a model of fires in artificial cities assembled from basic city blocks with diverse housing. The results confirm that parameter recovery variance exhibits power law decay as a function of the length of available ground truth data. Using CARP, we also demonstrate estimation using a disparate dataset that also has dependencies: real-world prediction precision for the global risk model based on the World Economic Forum Global Risk Report. We conclude that the CARP model is an efficient method for predicting catastrophic cascading events with potential applications to emerging local and global interconnected risks.

  17. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  18. Estimating risk using bounding calculations and limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  19. Trichinella and polar bears: a limited risk for humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupouy-Camet, J; Bourée, P; Yera, H

    2017-07-01

    In this review, we identified 63 cases reported since World War II of human trichinellosis linked to the consumption of parasitized polar bear (Ursus maritimus) meat. This low number contrasts to the numerous cases of human trichinellosis related to consumption of the meat of black (U. americanus) or brown bears (U. arctos). The prevalence of Trichinella infection is high in bears, but larval muscular burden is usually lower in polar bears compared to other bear species. Polar bears, therefore, seem to play a limited role in the transmission of trichinellosis to humans, as native residents living in the Arctic traditionally consume well-cooked bear meat, and travellers and foreign hunters have only limited access to this protected species due to the declining polar bear population.

  20. Threshold limit values, permissible exposure limits, and feasibility: The bases for exposure limits in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rappaport, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    The development of exposure limits in the United States has always relied heavily upon the threshold limit values (TLVs) developed by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). In fact, the TLVs were adopted as official exposure limits by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) in 1972 and 1989. Given the continuing importance of the ACGIH limits, this paper compares the basis of the TLVs with that employed by OSHA de novo in its 12 new permissible exposure limits (PELs). Using benzene as an example, it is shown that OSHA's new PELs have been established following a rigorous assessment of the inherent risks and the feasibility of instituting the limit. The TLVs, on the other hand, have been developed by ad hoc procedures and appear to have traditionally reflected levels thought to be achievable at the time. However, this might be changing. Analysis of the historical reductions of TLVs, for 27 substances on the 1991-1992 list of intended changes, indicates smaller reductions in the past (median reduction of 2.0-2.5-fold between 1946 and 1988) compared to those currently being observed (median reduction of 7.5-fold between 1989 and 1991). Further analysis suggests a more aggressive policy of the ACGIH regarding TLVs for carcinogens but not for substances that produce effects other than cancer. Regardless of whether the basis of the TLVs has changed recently, it would take a relatively long time for the impact of any change to be felt, since the median age of the 1991-1992 TLVs is 16.5 years, and 75% of these limits are more than 10 years old. The implications of OSHA's continued reliance on the TLVs as a means of updating its PELs are discussed, and four alternatives are presented to the ACGIH regarding the future of its activities related to exposure limits. It is concluded that new mechanisms are needed for OSHA to update its PELs in a timely fashion so that the TLVs will not be adopted by default in the future

  1. Limited Capital Market Participation and Human Capital Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Berk; Johan Walden

    2010-01-01

    The non-tradability of human capital is often cited for the failure of traditional asset pricing theory to explain agents' portfolio holdings. In this paper we argue that the opposite might be true --- traditional models might not be able to explain agent portfolio holdings because they do not explicitly account for the fact that human capital does trade (in the form of labor contracts). We derive wages endogenously as part of a dynamic equilibrium in a production economy. Risk is shared in l...

  2. Acute Kidney Injury Risk Assessment: Differences and Similarities Between Resource-Limited and Resource-Rich Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kianoush Kashani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI among acutely ill patients is reportedly very high and has vexing consequences on patient outcomes and health care systems. The risks and impact of AKI differ between developed and developing countries. Among developing countries, AKI occurs in young individuals with no or limited comorbidities, and is usually due to environmental causes, including infectious diseases. Although several risk factors have been identified for AKI in different settings, there is limited information on how risk assessment can be used at population and patient levels to improve care in patients with AKI, particularly in developing countries where significant health disparities may exist. The Acute Disease Quality Initiative consensus conference work group addressed the issue of identifying risk factors for AKI and provided recommendations for developing individualized risk stratification strategies to improve care. We proposed a 5-dimension, evidence-based categorization of AKI risk that allows clinicians and investigators to study, define, and implement individualized risk assessment tools for the region or country where they practice. These dimensions include environmental, socioeconomic and cultural factors, processes of care, exposures, and the inherent risks of AKI. We provide examples of these risks and describe approaches for risk assessments in the developing world. We anticipate that these recommendations will be useful for health care providers to plan and execute interventions to limit the impact of AKI on society and each individual patient. Using a modified Delphi process, this group reached consensus regarding several aspects of AKI risk stratification.

  3. Risk newsboy: approach for addressing uncertainty in developing action levels and cleanup limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger; MacDonell, Margaret

    2007-01-01

    Site cleanup decisions involve developing action levels and residual limits for key contaminants, to assure health protection during the cleanup period and into the long term. Uncertainty is inherent in the toxicity information used to define these levels, based on incomplete scientific knowledge regarding dose-response relationships across various hazards and exposures at environmentally relevant levels. This problem can be addressed by applying principles used to manage uncertainty in operations research, as illustrated by the newsboy dilemma. Each day a newsboy must balance the risk of buying more papers than he can sell against the risk of not buying enough. Setting action levels and cleanup limits involves a similar concept of balancing and distributing risks and benefits in the face of uncertainty. The newsboy approach can be applied to develop health-based target concentrations for both radiological and chemical contaminants, with stakeholder input being crucial to assessing 'regret' levels. Associated tools include structured expert judgment elicitation to quantify uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, and mathematical techniques such as probabilistic inversion and iterative proportional fitting. (authors)

  4. Finite element limit analysis based plastic limit pressure solutions for cracked pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, Do Jun; Huh, Nam Su; Kim, Yun Jae; Kim, Young Jin

    2002-01-01

    Based on detailed FE limit analyses, the present paper provides tractable approximations for plastic limit pressure solutions for axial through-wall cracked pipe; axial (inner) surface cracked pipe; circumferential through-wall cracked pipe; and circumferential (inner) surface cracked pipe. Comparisons with existing analytical and empirical solutions show a large discrepancy in circumferential short through-wall cracks and in surface cracks (both axial and circumferential). Being based on detailed 3-D FE limit analysis, the present solutions are believed to be the most accurate, and thus to be valuable information not only for plastic collapse analysis of pressurised piping but also for estimating non-linear fracture mechanics parameters based on the reference stress approach

  5. The global limits and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pullan Rachel L

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the global limits of transmission of soil-transmitted helminth (STH species is essential for quantifying the population at-risk and the burden of disease. This paper aims to define these limits on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and additionally seeks to investigate the effects of urbanisation and economic development on STH transmission, and estimate numbers at-risk of infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in 2010. Methods A total of 4,840 geo-referenced estimates of infection prevalence were abstracted from the Global Atlas of Helminth Infection and related to a range of environmental factors to delineate the biological limits of transmission. The relationship between STH transmission and urbanisation and economic development was investigated using high resolution population surfaces and country-level socioeconomic indicators, respectively. Based on the identified limits, the global population at risk of STH transmission in 2010 was estimated. Results High and low land surface temperature and extremely arid environments were found to limit STH transmission, with differential limits identified for each species. There was evidence that the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and of T. trichiura infection was statistically greater in peri-urban areas compared to urban and rural areas, whilst the prevalence of hookworm was highest in rural areas. At national levels, no clear socioeconomic correlates of transmission were identified, with the exception that little or no infection was observed for countries with a per capita gross domestic product greater than US$ 20,000. Globally in 2010, an estimated 5.3 billion people, including 1.0 billion school-aged children, lived in areas stable for transmission of at least one STH species, with 69% of these individuals living in Asia. A further 143 million (31.1 million school-aged children lived in areas of unstable

  6. 26 CFR 5.1502-45 - Limitation on losses to amount at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 14 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitation on losses to amount at risk. 5.1502... Limitation on losses to amount at risk. (a) In general—(1) Scope. This section applies to a loss of any subsidiary if the common parent's stock meets the stock ownership requirement described in section 465(a)(1...

  7. The assessment of solvency and determination of limits for risk acceptance in insurance companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drljača Dejan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper is the presentation of key requirements for Solvency II project, the methodology for testing of capital adequacy and methods for identification, definition and establishment of risk limits, as a limit for acceptance, bearing and control of exposure to certain risks in insurance companies. The aim of the paper is to show that the capital adequacy is the key factor for insurers' safety, i.e. guarantee of capability of an insurer to settle any future liabilities and leverage for strengthening of insurer's market position. Business operations of insurance companies are exposed to a significant number of risks that differ by their nature, character and influence, due to which adequacy of calculated technical reserves does not provide a satisfactory level of safety in case of more significant impairments of assets and funds of insurers, as well as in case of significant deviations between amounts of settled claims and actuarially expected amounts of liabilities based on claims. Stress testing of capital adequacy will show that losses due to impairment of risky securities, difficult collection of low liquid, i.e. securities that are difficult to market, inability to collect receivables from reinsurers, as well as losses due to inadequately calculated reserved claims, must be covered by a solvent capital. The paper is structured so as to provide a review of rules, elements and principles that are the foundation of solvency requirements in insurance companies, methodologies of calculation of guarantee reserve, technical basis for stress testing which assesses capital adequacy of insurers, as well as methods for establishment of limits of exposure to certain risks.

  8. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  9. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  10. 75 FR 50936 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-18

    ...-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management AGENCY: Farm Credit... sound operation of System institutions by strengthening their risk management practices and abilities to... the establishment of consistent, uniform and prudent concentration risk management policies by System...

  11. Habit-based Asset Pricing with Limited Participation Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Møller, Stig Vinther

    We calibrate and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation using limited participation consumption data. Based on survey data of a representative sample of American households, we distinguish between assetholder and non-assetholder consumption, as well as the standard...

  12. Habit-based asset pricing with limited participation consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Bach, Christian

    2011-01-01

    We calibrate and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation using limited participation consumption data. Based on survey data of a representative sample of American households, we distinguish between assetholder and non-assetholder consumption, as well as the standard...

  13. How to evaluate the risks of exceeding limits: geostatistical models and their application to air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouquet, Ch. de; Deraisme, J.; Bobbia, M.

    2007-01-01

    Geo-statistics is increasingly applied to the study of environmental risks in a variety of sectors, especially in the fields of soil decontamination and the evaluation of the risks due to air pollution. Geo-statistics offers a rigorous stochastic modeling approach that makes it possible to answer questions expressed in terms of uncertainty and risk. This article focusses on nonlinear geo-statistical methods, based on the Gaussian random function model, whose essential properties are summarised. We use two examples to characterize situations where direct and thus rapid methods provide appropriate solutions and cases that inevitably require more laborious simulation techniques. Exposure of the population of the Rouen metropolitan area to the risk of NO 2 pollution is assessed by simulations, but the surface area where the pollution exceeds the threshold limit can be easily estimated with nonlinear conditional expectation techniques. A second example is used to discuss the bias introduced by direct simulation, here of a percentile of daily SO 2 concentration for one year in the city of Le Havre; an operational solution is proposed. (authors)

  14. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  15. Self-organizing maps based on limit cycle attractors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Di-Wei; Gentili, Rodolphe J; Reggia, James A

    2015-03-01

    Recent efforts to develop large-scale brain and neurocognitive architectures have paid relatively little attention to the use of self-organizing maps (SOMs). Part of the reason for this is that most conventional SOMs use a static encoding representation: each input pattern or sequence is effectively represented as a fixed point activation pattern in the map layer, something that is inconsistent with the rhythmic oscillatory activity observed in the brain. Here we develop and study an alternative encoding scheme that instead uses sparsely-coded limit cycles to represent external input patterns/sequences. We establish conditions under which learned limit cycle representations arise reliably and dominate the dynamics in a SOM. These limit cycles tend to be relatively unique for different inputs, robust to perturbations, and fairly insensitive to timing. In spite of the continually changing activity in the map layer when a limit cycle representation is used, map formation continues to occur reliably. In a two-SOM architecture where each SOM represents a different sensory modality, we also show that after learning, limit cycles in one SOM can correctly evoke corresponding limit cycles in the other, and thus there is the potential for multi-SOM systems using limit cycles to work effectively as hetero-associative memories. While the results presented here are only first steps, they establish the viability of SOM models based on limit cycle activity patterns, and suggest that such models merit further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Upper limits for air humidity based on human comfort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toftum, Jørn; Fanger, Povl Ole; Jørgensen, Anette S.

    1998-01-01

    respiratory cooling. Human subjects perceived the condition of their skin to be less acceptable with increasing skin humidity. Inhaled air was rated warmer, more stuffy and less acceptable with increasing air humidity and temperature. Based on the subjects' comfort responses, new upper limits for air humidity......The purpose of this study was to verify the hypothesis that insufficient respiratory cooling and a high level of skin humidity are two reasons for thermal discomfort at high air humidities, and to prescribe upper limits for humidity based on discomfort due to elevated skin humidity and insufficient...

  17. 76 FR 12645 - Ownership Limitations and Governance Requirements for Security-Based Swap Clearing Agencies...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-08

    ... 3235-AK74 Ownership Limitations and Governance Requirements for Security- Based Swap Clearing Agencies... the Dodd-Frank Act, the Commission shall adopt such rules if it determines that they are necessary or appropriate to improve the governance of, or to mitigate systemic risk, promote competition or mitigate...

  18. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  19. Application of the risk-informed methodology for APR1400 P-T limits curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.; Namgung, I. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    A reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a nuclear power plant has operational limits of pressure and temperature to prevent a potential drastic propagation of cracks due to brittle fracture. We call it a pressure-temperature limits curve (P-T limits curve). Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, provides deterministic procedures to develop the P-T limits curve for the reactor pressure vessel. Recently, an alternative risk-informed methodology has been added in the ASME Code. Risk-informed means that we can consider insights from a probabilistic risk assessment by using this methodology. This alternative methodology provides a simple procedure to develop risk-informed P-T limits for heat up, cool down, and hydrostatic test events. The risk-informed P-T limits curve is known to provide more operational flexibility, particularly for reactor pressure vessels with relatively high irradiation levels and radiation sensitive materials. In this paper, we developed both the deterministic and a risk-informed P-T limits curve for an APR1400 reactor using Appendix G of the ASME Code, Section XI and compare the results in terms of additional operational margin. (author)

  20. Risk factors for mobility limitation in community-dwelling older adults: a social ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeom, Hye A; Fleury, Julie; Keller, Colleen

    2008-01-01

    Although a variety of risk factors for mobility limitation in older adults have been examined, a collective review of relevant literature has not been reported. The purposes of this review are to report the intrapersonal, interpersonal, environmental, and organizational risk factors related to mobility limitation using a social ecological perspective and to discuss the direction of future clinical practice consistent with current literature on mobility limitation of community-dwelling older adults. Intrapersonal risk factors related to mobility limitation include advanced age, female gender, low socioeconomic status, comorbidity, lack of motivation (i.e., dependent personality, decreased self-efficacy), lifestyle factors (i.e., sedentary lifestyle, smoking, obesity), and physiological factors (i.e., vitamin D deficiency, inflammation, poor nutritional status). Interpersonal risk factors related to mobility limitation include weak social networks and limited social activities. Geriatric clients may also experience a decline in mobility when they encounter environmental challenges such as an inconvenient home environment and lack of availability of services in their community, as well as lack of organizational resources stemming from social policy. Potential intervention strategies focused on modifiable risk factors may include lifestyle modifications, social networking programs, and enhancing awareness of environmental and organizational resources in the community for older adults at risk for mobility limitation.

  1. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  2. Experiences with strain based limit state design in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gresnigt, A.M.; Foeken, R.J. van

    1996-01-01

    Limit state design differs from conventional design methods in that each failure mode is specifically addressed (e.g. burst, collapse, local buckling, fracture due to insufficient strain capacity of the pipe wall, fatigue). Based on an extensive theoretical and experimental research programme,

  3. Informed choice in direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) websites: a content analysis of benefits, risks, and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singleton, Amanda; Erby, Lori Hamby; Foisie, Kathryn V; Kaphingst, Kimberly A

    2012-06-01

    An informed choice about health-related direct-to-consumer genetic testing (DTCGT) requires knowledge of potential benefits, risks, and limitations. To understand the information that potential consumers of DTCGT services are exposed to on company websites, we conducted a content analysis of 23 health-related DTCGT websites. Results revealed that benefit statements outweighed risk and limitation statements 6 to 1. The most frequently described benefits were: 1) disease prevention, 2) consumer education, 3) personalized medical recommendations, and 4) the ability to make health decisions. Thirty-five percent of websites also presented at least one risk of testing. Seventy-eight percent of websites mentioned at least one limitation of testing. Based on this information, potential consumers might get an inaccurate picture of genetic testing which could impact their ability to make an informed decision. Practices that enhance the presentation of balanced information on DTCGT company websites should be encouraged.

  4. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  5. 76 FR 29992 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-24

    ... FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 614 RIN 3052-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The... (collectively loan) concentration risks. We expect this final rule will increase the safe and sound operation of...

  6. Risk Management Practices in Islamic Bank: A Case Study of Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited

    OpenAIRE

    Uddin, Md Akther

    2015-01-01

    Islamic banking industry has been growing rapidly for last three decades. As risk is inherent in banking business it is necessary to develop a comprehensive risk management framework and process. In this paper, a humble attempt has been made to study and analyze risk management practices of Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited (IBBL), one of the leading Islamic banks in Bangaladesh. Annual reports of IBBL and 7 other full-fledged Islamic banks, Bangladesh Bank, the central bank of Bangladesh, publi...

  7. Risk factors for persistent airflow limitation: Analysis of 306 patients with asthma

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Lingcheng; Gao, Shuncui; Zhu, Wei; Su, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Objectives : To determine the risk factors associated with persistent airflow limitation in patients with asthma. Method s: This study was designed and carried out in the department of respiratory medicine, fourth People?s Hospital of Jinan City, Shandong province, China between Jan 2012 and Dec 2012. Three hundred and six asthma patients participating in the study were divided into persistent airflow limitation group (PAFL) and no persistent airflow limitation group (NPAFL). The patients par...

  8. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  9. NASA Space Radiation Protection Strategies: Risk Assessment and Permissible Exposure Limits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, J. L.; Patel, Z. S.; Simonsen, L. C.

    2017-01-01

    Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.

  10. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  11. Comparative risk-benefit-cost effectiveness in nuclear and alternate power sources: methodology, perspective, limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.; Van Reijen, G.; Maurer, H.; Volta, G.

    1980-01-01

    A critical survey is given of the use of quantitative risk assessment in defining acceptable limits of safety and of its use together with cost-benefit analyses for decision making. The paper indicates uncertainties and even unknowns in risk assessment in particular if the whole fuel cycle for energy production is considered. It is made clear that for decisions on acceptance of risk also the risk perception factor must be considered. A difficult issue here is the potential for low-probability/large consequence accidents. Examples are given, suggestions for improvement are made and perspectives are outlined

  12. Currency risk management of non-financial public limited companies listed on WIG30 index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicja Mikołajewicz-Woźniak

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objects of the study are selected aspects of currency risk management of nonfinancial public limited companies listed on WIG30 index. The estimation of net profit sensitivity to currencies exchange rates was used to determine importance of currency risk management for functioning of analyzed entities. The indication of the methods and tools used in currency risk management process became the basis for evaluation of taken actions. The determination of the relationship between hedging accounting and risk management results enabled the verification to what extent Polish companies exploit existing opportunities.

  13. Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard E. Sleefe

    2010-01-01

    There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

  14. Developing of risk-hedging CO2-emission policy. Part II: risks associated with measures to limit emissions, synthesis and conclusions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is Part II of a two-part series in which the risk associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions, and with measures to limit emissions, are reviewed. The following risks associated with these efforts to limit CO 2 emissions are reviewed here: (1) resources might be diverted from other urgent needs; (2) economic growth might be reduced; (3) reduction measures might cost more than expected; (4) early action might cost more than later action; (5) reduction measures might have undesired side effects; (6) reduction measures might require heavy-handed government intervention; and (7) reduction measures might not work. With gradual implementation of a diversified portfolio of measures, these risks can be greatly reduced. Based on the review of risks associated with measures to limit emissions here, and the review of the risk associated with unrestrained emissions presented in Part I, it is concluded that a reasonable near-term (20-30 year) risk hedging strategy is one which seeks to stabilize global fossil CO 2 emissions at the present (early 1990s) level. This is turn implies an emission reduction of 26% for industrialized countries as a whole and 40-50% for Canada and the USA if developing country emissions are to increase by no more than 60%, which in itself would require major assistance from the industrialized countries. The framework and conclusions presented here are critically compared with so-called optimization frameworks. 82 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old-Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Nowak, Dennis; Herbig, Britta

    2017-12-11

    Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG-based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six-month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time-stable between-person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  17. Attributable risks for childhood overweight: evidence for limited effectiveness of prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plachta-Danielzik, Sandra; Kehden, Britta; Landsberg, Beate; Schaffrath Rosario, Angelika; Kurth, Bärbel-Maria; Arnold, Christiane; Graf, Christine; Hense, Sabrina; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Müller, Manfred James

    2012-10-01

    Calculation of attributable risks (ARs) of childhood overweight to estimate effectiveness of prevention strategies. We used pooled data of 4 population-based German studies including 34240 children and adolescents aged 3 to 18 years to calculate the impact of familial, social, "early life", and lifestyle factors on overweight. ARs (joint for all determinants as well as partial risks) were calculated. The prevalence of childhood overweight was 13.4%. Successfully tackling all determinants can reduce overweight by 77.7% (ie, from 13.4% to 3.0%; = joint AR) with partial effects of treating parental overweight (42.5%); improving social status (14.3%); reducing media time to lifestyle) the effect is 9.2%. Media time has the strongest effect. The determinants identified explained 78% of the prevalence of overweight. Taking into account the partial ARs, the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions to prevent overweight in children is limited. Our data argue in favor of interventions aimed at families and social environments, with a major focus on promoting a lower screen time and computer use in children.

  18. MgB2-based superconductors for fault current limiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolovsky, V.; Prikhna, T.; Meerovich, V.; Eisterer, M.; Goldacker, W.; Kozyrev, A.; Weber, H. W.; Shapovalov, A.; Sverdun, V.; Moshchil, V.

    2017-02-01

    A promising solution of the fault current problem in power systems is the application of fast-operating nonlinear superconducting fault current limiters (SFCLs) with the capability of rapidly increasing their impedance, and thus limiting high fault currents. We report the results of experiments with models of inductive (transformer type) SFCLs based on the ring-shaped bulk MgB2 prepared under high quasihydrostatic pressure (2 GPa) and by hot pressing technique (30 MPa). It was shown that the SFCLs meet the main requirements to fault current limiters: they possess low impedance in the nominal regime of the protected circuit and can fast increase their impedance limiting both the transient and the steady-state fault currents. The study of quenching currents of MgB2 rings (SFCL activation current) and AC losses in the rings shows that the quenching current density and critical current density determined from AC losses can be 10-20 times less than the critical current determined from the magnetization experiments.

  19. A risk modelling approach for setting microbiological limits using enterococci as indicator for growth potential of Salmonella in pork.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollerslev, Anne Mette; Nauta, Maarten; Hansen, Tina Beck; Aabo, Søren

    2017-01-02

    Microbiological limits are widely used in food processing as an aid to reduce the exposure to hazardous microorganisms for the consumers. However, in pork, the prevalence and concentrations of Salmonella are generally low and microbiological limits are not considered an efficient tool to support hygiene interventions. The objective of the present study was to develop an approach which could make it possible to define potential risk-based microbiological limits for an indicator, enterococci, in order to evaluate the risk from potential growth of Salmonella. A positive correlation between the concentration of enterococci and the prevalence and concentration of Salmonella was shown for 6640 pork samples taken at Danish cutting plants and retail butchers. The samples were collected in five different studies in 2001, 2002, 2010, 2011 and 2013. The observations that both Salmonella and enterococci are carried in the intestinal tract, contaminate pork by the same mechanisms and share similar growth characteristics (lag phase and maximum specific growth rate) at temperatures around 5-10°C, suggest a potential of enterococci to be used as an indicator of potential growth of Salmonella in pork. Elevated temperatures during processing will lead to growth of both enterococci and, if present, also Salmonella. By combining the correlation between enterococci and Salmonella with risk modelling, it is possible to predict the risk of salmonellosis based on the level of enterococci. The risk model used for this purpose includes the dose-response relationship for Salmonella and a reduction factor to account for preparation of the fresh pork. By use of the risk model, it was estimated that the majority of salmonellosis cases, caused by the consumption of pork in Denmark, is caused by the small fraction of pork products that has enterococci concentrations above 5logCFU/g. This illustrates that our approach can be used to evaluate the potential effect of different microbiological

  20. COMPETENCY-BASED TRAINING IN NURSING: LIMITS AND POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Franco da Rocha Tonhom

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective To analyze the possibilities and limits of competency-based training in nursing. Method An integrative review of the literature on the subject was carried out, and an analysis was made of the results of a survey evaluating a nursing course based on areas of competency. A dialog was then established between the review and the results of the research. Results On the question of which theoretical type of competency the articles from the literature relate to, there is a predominance of the constructivist perspective, followed by the functionalist approach and the dialog-based approach. In the dialog between the literature and the research, limits and possibilities were observed in the development of a training by areas of competency. Conclusion The dialog-based approach to competency is the proposition that most approximates to the profile defined by the National Curriculum Guidelines for training in nursing, and this was also identified in the evaluation survey that was studied. However, it is found that there are aspects on better work is needed, such as: partnership between school and the workplace, the role of the teacher, the role of the student, and the process of evaluation.

  1. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  2. Agent-Based Modelling for Security Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.M.; Sharpans'kykh, Alexei; Bajo, J.; Vale, Z.; Hallenborg, K.; Rocha, A.P.; Mathieu, P.; Pawlewski, P.; Del Val, E.; Novais, P.; Lopes, F.; Duque Méndez, N.D.; Julián, V.; Holmgren, J.

    2017-01-01

    Security Risk Assessment is commonly performed by using traditional methods based on linear probabilistic tools and informal expert judgements. These methods lack the capability to take the inherent dynamic and intelligent nature of attackers into account. To partially address the limitations,

  3. Project transition to risk based corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, J.M.; Cormier, S.L.

    1996-01-01

    Many states have adopted or are considering the adoption of the America Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Standard E 1739, Standard for Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) Applied to Petroleum Release Sites. This standard is being adopted to regulate leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites. The case studies of two LUST sites in Michigan will be presented to demonstrate the decision making process and limiting factors involved in transitioning sites to the RBCA program. Both of these case studies had been previously investigated and one was actively remediated. The first case study involves a private petroleum facility where soil and ground water have been impacted. Remediation involved a ground water pump and treat system. Subsequent monitoring during system operation indicated that analytical data were still above the Tier 1 RBSLs but below the Tier 2 SSTLs. The closure strategy that was developed was based on the compounds of concern that were below the SSTLs. A deed restriction was also developed for the site as an institutional control. The second LUST site exhibited BTEX concentrations in soil and ground water above the Tier 1 RBSLs. Due to the exceedence of the Tier 1 RBSLs, the second site required a Tier 2 assessment to develop SSTLs as remedial objectives and remove hot spots in the soil and treat the ground water to achieve closure. Again, a deed restriction was instituted along with a performance monitoring plan

  4. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  5. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  6. The impact of high-risk drivers and benefits of limiting their driving degree of freedom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemichael, Filmon G; de Picado-Santos, Luis

    2013-11-01

    The perception of drivers regarding risk-taking behaviour is widely varied. High-risk drivers are the segment of drivers who are disproportionately represented in the majority of crashes. This study examines the typologies of drivers in risk-taking behaviour, the common high-risk driving errors (speeding, close following, abrupt lane-changing and impaired driving), their safety consequences and the technological (ITS) devices for their detection and correction. Limiting the driving degree of freedom of high-risk drivers is proposed and its benefits on safety as well as traffic operations are quantified using VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation at various proportions of high-risk drivers; namely, 4%, 8% and 12%. Assessment of the safety benefits was carried out by using the technique of simulated vehicle conflicts which was validated against historic crashes, and reduction in travel time was used to quantify the operational benefits. The findings imply that limiting the freedom of high-risk drivers resulted in a reduction of crashes by 12%, 21% and 27% in congested traffic conditions; 9%, 13% and 18% in lightly congested traffic conditions as well as 9%, 10% and 17% in non-congested traffic conditions for high-risk drivers in proportions of 4%, 8% and 12% respectively. Moreover, the surrogate safety measures indicated that there was a reduction in crash severity levels. The operational benefits amounted to savings of nearly 1% in travel time for all the proportions of high-risk drivers considered. The study concluded that limiting the freedom of high-risk drivers has safety and operational benefits; though there could be social, legal and institutional concerns for its practical implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A risk modelling approach for setting microbiological limits using enterococci as indicator for growth potential of Salmonella in pork

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Anne Mette; Nauta, Maarten; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2017-01-01

    Microbiological limits are widely used in food processing as an aid to reduce the exposure to hazardous microorganisms for the consumers. However, in pork, the prevalence and concentrations of Salmonella are generally low and microbiological limits are not considered an efficient tool to support...... for this purpose includes the dose-response relationship for Salmonella and a reduction factor to account for preparation of the fresh pork. By use of the risk model, it was estimated that the majority of salmonellosis cases, caused by the consumption of pork in Denmark, is caused by the small fraction of pork...... products that has enterococci concentrations above 5. log. CFU/g. This illustrates that our approach can be used to evaluate the potential effect of different microbiological limits and therefore, the perspective of this novel approach is that it can be used for definition of a risk-based microbiological...

  8. Ecohydrology of agroecosystems: probabilistic description of yield reduction risk under limited water availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, Giulia; Porporato, Amilcare

    2013-04-01

    Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability and stabilize yields. Irrigated agriculture currently provides 40% of food production and its relevance is expected to further increase in the near future, in face of the projected alterations of rainfall patterns and increase in food, fiber, and biofuel demand. Because of the significant investments and water requirements involved in irrigation, strategic choices are needed to preserve productivity and profitability, while maintaining a sustainable water management - a nontrivial task given the unpredictability of the rainfall forcing. To facilitate decision making under uncertainty, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season and yields at harvest. Based on these linkages, the probability density function of yields and corresponding probability density function of required irrigation volumes, as well as the probability density function of yields under the most common case of limited water availability are obtained analytically, as a function of irrigation strategy, climate, soil and crop parameters. The full probabilistic description of the frequency of occurrence of yields and water requirements is a crucial tool for decision making under uncertainty, e.g., via expected utility analysis. Furthermore, the knowledge of the probability density function of yield allows us to quantify the yield reduction hydrologic risk. Two risk indices are defined and quantified: the long-term risk index, suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, and the real-time risk index, providing a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season in an agricultural setting. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and

  9. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  10. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  11. Risk analysis in cattle fattening in North West Ethiopia: Empirical evidence form two limit Tobit model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habtamu Yesigat Ayenew

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Resource allocation is a point of concern in small to large farms and is generally argued that small farmers in developing countries are “poor but efficient”, trying to allocate the limited resources to unlimited desires efficiently in the given production system in the light of their life-long experiences. The issue of market orientation in cattle fattening is basically challenged with the risks and uncertainties in the production and the market. Data were collected from 112 purposively selected fattening operator farmers from 3 districts and 6 peasant associations to see the risks. The data were analyzed through both descriptive and econometric statistical tools using STATA. Only about 13% of the respondents have participated in the farm business with own capital and the vast majority borrowed from Amhara Credit and Saving Association (ACSI through their cooperatives. It is found that production risks are limited while economic and market related risks play vital role in the farm operation. Duration of stay of the cattle, land holding of the household, distance to the development agent’s office and age of the household head increase the risk averse nature of the household and limit their participation in export market. In the other hand, frequency of fattening enhances the risk taking character of the households and their participation in the export of cattle. It is vital to enhance the institutional support from the public to enhance the gain from the fattening activity and market orientation of farming.

  12. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  13. Principles of risk-based decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines

    2001-01-01

    ... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...

  14. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  15. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  16. Risk ratios for use in establishing dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, P.E.; Winkler, B.C.

    1980-01-01

    Dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation may be established by comparing the associated mortality risk with apparently accepted levels of industrial mortality risk due to conventional hazards. Average levels of industrial mortality risk rates are frequently quoted and used in such comparisons. However, within particular occupations or industries certain groups of workers will be exposed to higher levels of risk than the average, again an apparently accepted situation. A study has been made of the ratios of maximum to average industrial mortality risk currently experienced in some South African industries. Such a ratio may be used to assess the acceptability of maximum individual-to-average exposures in particular groups of exposed individuals. (author)

  17. A discussion of the limitations of the psychometric and cultural theory approaches to risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk perception has traditionally been conceived as a cognitive phenomenon, basically a question of information processing. The very term perception suggests that information processing is involved and of crucial importance. Kahneman and Tversky suggested that the use of 'heuristics' in the intuitive estimation of probabilities accounts for biased probability perception, hence claiming to explain risk perception as well. The psychometric approach of Slovic et al, a further step in in the cognitive tradition, conceives of perceived risk as a function of general properties of a hazard. However, the psychometric approach is shown here to explain only about 20% of the variance of perceived risk, even less of risk acceptability. Its claim to explanatory power is based on a statistical illusion: mean values were investigated and accounted for, across hazards. A currently popular alternative to the psychometric tradition, Cultural Theory, is even less successful and explains only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk. The claims of this approach were also based on a statistical illusion: 'significant' results were reported and interpreted as being of substantial importance. The present paper presents a new approach: attitude to the risk generating technology, general sensitivity to risks and specific risk explained well over 60% of the variance of perceived risk of nuclear waste, in a study of extensive data from a representative sample of the Swedish population. The attitude component functioning as an explanatory factor of perceived risk, rather than as a consequence of perceived risk, suggests strongly that perceived risk is something other than cognition. Implications for risk communication are discussed. (author)

  18. Hiding the Source Based on Limited Flooding for Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Juan; Lin, Zhengkui; Hu, Ying; Wang, Bailing

    2015-11-17

    Wireless sensor networks are widely used to monitor valuable objects such as rare animals or armies. Once an object is detected, the source, i.e., the sensor nearest to the object, generates and periodically sends a packet about the object to the base station. Since attackers can capture the object by localizing the source, many protocols have been proposed to protect source location. Instead of transmitting the packet to the base station directly, typical source location protection protocols first transmit packets randomly for a few hops to a phantom location, and then forward the packets to the base station. The problem with these protocols is that the generated phantom locations are usually not only near the true source but also close to each other. As a result, attackers can easily trace a route back to the source from the phantom locations. To address the above problem, we propose a new protocol for source location protection based on limited flooding, named SLP. Compared with existing protocols, SLP can generate phantom locations that are not only far away from the source, but also widely distributed. It improves source location security significantly with low communication cost. We further propose a protocol, namely SLP-E, to protect source location against more powerful attackers with wider fields of vision. The performance of our SLP and SLP-E are validated by both theoretical analysis and simulation results.

  19. Hiding the Source Based on Limited Flooding for Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Chen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks are widely used to monitor valuable objects such as rare animals or armies. Once an object is detected, the source, i.e., the sensor nearest to the object, generates and periodically sends a packet about the object to the base station. Since attackers can capture the object by localizing the source, many protocols have been proposed to protect source location. Instead of transmitting the packet to the base station directly, typical source location protection protocols first transmit packets randomly for a few hops to a phantom location, and then forward the packets to the base station. The problem with these protocols is that the generated phantom locations are usually not only near the true source but also close to each other. As a result, attackers can easily trace a route back to the source from the phantom locations. To address the above problem, we propose a new protocol for source location protection based on limited flooding, named SLP. Compared with existing protocols, SLP can generate phantom locations that are not only far away from the source, but also widely distributed. It improves source location security significantly with low communication cost. We further propose a protocol, namely SLP-E, to protect source location against more powerful attackers with wider fields of vision. The performance of our SLP and SLP-E are validated by both theoretical analysis and simulation results.

  20. Risk-based plant performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Azarm, M.A.; Hall, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Tasked by the 1979 President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, the U.S. nuclear power industry has put into place a performance indicator program as one means for showing a demonstrable record of achievement. Largely through the efforts of the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), plant performance data has, since 1983, been collected and analyzed to aid utility management in measuring their plants' performance progress. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has also developed a set of performance indicators. This program, conducted by NRC's Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), is structured to present information on plant operational performance in a manner that could enhance the staff's ability to recognize changes in the safety performance. Both organizations recognized that performance indicators have limitations and could be subject to misinterpretation and misuse with the potential for an adverse impact on safety. This paper reports on performance indicators presently in use, e.g., unplanned automatic scrams, unplanned safety system actuation, safety system failures, etc., which are logically related to safety. But, a reliability/risk-based method for evaluating either individual indicators or an aggregated set of indicators is not yet available

  1. Work-Related Health Limitations, Education, and the Risk of Marital Disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Jay

    2010-01-01

    Despite progress in identifying the covariates of divorce, there remain substantial gaps in the knowledge. One of these gaps is the relationship between health and risk of marital dissolution. I extend prior research by examining the linkages between work-related health limitations and divorce using 25 years of data (N = 7919) taken from the 1979…

  2. 77 FR 39387 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management; Effective Date

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-03

    ... FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 614 RIN 3052-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management; Effective Date AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION: Notice of effective date. SUMMARY: The Farm Credit Administration (FCA or Agency), through the FCA Board (Board...

  3. Limitations in simulator time-based human reliability analysis methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wreathall, J.

    1989-01-01

    Developments in human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have evolved slowly. Current methods are little changed from those of almost a decade ago, particularly in the use of time-reliability relationships. While these methods were suitable as an interim step, the time (and the need) has come to specify the next evolution of HRA methods. As with any performance-oriented data source, power plant simulator data have no direct connection to HRA models. Errors reported in data are normal deficiencies observed in human performance; failures are events modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Not all errors cause failures; not all failures are caused by errors. Second, the times at which actions are taken provide no measure of the likelihood of failures to act correctly within an accident scenario. Inferences can be made about human reliability, but they must be made with great care. Specific limitations are discussed. Simulator performance data are useful in providing qualitative evidence of the variety of error types and their potential influences on operating systems. More work is required to combine recent developments in the psychology of error with the qualitative data collected at stimulators. Until data become openly available, however, such an advance will not be practical

  4. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon

    2015-10-01

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO 2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  5. Active superconducting DC fault current limiter based on flux compensation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Jing; Tang Yuejin; Wang, Chen; Zhou Yusheng; Li Jingdong; Ren Li; Chen Shijie

    2006-01-01

    With the extensive application of DC power systems, suppression of DC fault current is an important subject that guarantees system security. This paper presents an active superconducting DC fault current limiter (DC-SFCL) based on flux compensation. The DC-SFCL is composed of two superconducting windings wound on a single iron core, the primary winding is in series with DC power system, and the second winding is connected with AC power system through a PWM converter. In normal operating state, the flux in the iron core is compensated to zero, and the SFCL has no influence on DC power system. In the case of DC system accident, through regulating the active power exchange between the SFCL's second winding and the AC power system, the current on the DC side can be limited to different level complying with the system demand. Moreover, the PWM converter that interface the DC system and AC system can be controlled as a reactive power source to supply voltage support for the AC side, which has little influence on the performance of SFCL. Using MATLAB SIMULINK, the mathematic model of the DC-SFCL is created, simulation results validate the dynamics of system, and the performance of DC-SFCL is confirmed

  6. Resolution and systematic limitations in beam based alignment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tenenbaum, P.G.

    2000-03-15

    Beam based alignment of quadrupoles by variation of quadrupole strength is a widely-used technique in accelerators today. The authors describe the dominant systematic limitation of this technique, which arises from the change in the center position of the quadrupole as the strength is varied, and derive expressions for the resulting error. In addition, the authors derive an expression for the statistical resolution of such techniques in a periodic transport line, given knowledge of the line's transport matrices, the resolution of the beam position monitor system, and the details of the strength variation procedure. These results are applied to the Next Linear Collider main linear accelerator, an 11 kilometer accelerator containing 750 quadrupoles and 5,000 accelerator structures. The authors find that in principle a statistical resolution of 1 micron is easily achievable but the systematic error due to variation of the magnetic centers could be several times larger.

  7. Speckle disturbance limit in laser-based cinema projection systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschaffelt, Guy; Roelandt, Stijn; Meuret, Youri; van den Broeck, Wendy; Kilpi, Katriina; Lievens, Bram; Jacobs, An; Janssens, Peter; Thienpont, Hugo

    2015-09-01

    In a multi-disciplinary effort, we investigate the level of speckle that can be tolerated in a laser cinema projector based on a quality of experience experiment with movie clips shown to a test audience in a real-life movie theatre setting. We identify a speckle disturbance threshold by statistically analyzing the observers’ responses for different values of the amount of speckle, which was monitored using a well-defined speckle measurement method. The analysis shows that the speckle perception of a human observer is not only dependent on the objectively measured amount of speckle, but it is also strongly influenced by the image content. The speckle disturbance limit for movies turns out to be substantially larger than that for still images, and hence is easier to attain.

  8. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  9. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  10. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  11. Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

    2005-10-01

    Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

  12. Balancing public health and resource limitations: A role for ethical low-level risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGinn, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    Recognition of the pervasiveness of risk in everyday life in modern industrial society has elicited calls for greater efforts to protect individual and public health. Yet, it is increasingly clear that decisions to do so must often be made in the context of significant limits in the amounts of financial resources available for achieving that protection. Achieving risk-free work, residential, and community environments may be so expensive as to render a private business unit uncompetitive or as to divert resources from or prelude commencing with other governmental projects with equal or greater health benefit potential. Ethical low-level risk communication (LLRC) is something risk-generating entities are morally obligated to do. However, such communication also offers important opportunities for such entities to move toward achieving better balances between health and the costs of protecting it. In this paper, the authors elaborate on several features of an ethically ideal LLRC process, focusing on those with aspects they hope are not obvious or common knowledge. In discussing these features, they provide examples of conflicts between health risks and resource limits at the level of the individual private firm, the local community, or the national government, such that LLRC with the feature in question provides an opportunity for mitigating or at least clarifying the conflict in question

  13. Performance limitations of polymer electrolytes based on ethylene oxide polymers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buriez, Olivier; Han, Yong Bong; Hou, Jun; Kerr, John B.; Qiao, Jun; Sloop, Steven E.; Tian, Minmin; Wang, Shanger

    1999-01-01

    Studies of polymer electrolyte solutions for lithium-polymer batteries are described. Two different salts, lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) and lithium trifluoromethanesulfonate (LiTf), were dissolved in a variety of polymers. The structures were all based upon the ethylene oxide unit for lithium ion solvation and both linear and comb-branch polymer architectures have been examined. Conductivity, salt diffusion coefficient and transference number measurements demonstrate the superior transport properties of the LiTFSI salt over LiTf. Data obtained on all of these polymers combined with LiTFSI salts suggest that there is a limit to the conductivity achievable at room temperature, at least for hosts containing ethylene oxide units. The apparent conductivity limit is 5 x 10-5 S/cm at 25 C. Providing that the polymer chain segment containing the ethylene oxide units is at least 5-6 units long there appears to be little influence of the polymer framework to which the solvating groups are attached. To provide adequate separator function, the mechanical properties may be disconnected from the transport properties by selection of an appropriate architecture combined with an adequately long ethylene oxide chain. For both bulk and interfacial transport of the lithium ions, conductivity data alone is insufficient to understand the processes that occur. Lithium ion transference numbers and salt diffusion coefficients also play a major role in the observed behavior and the transport properties of these polymer electrolyte solutions appear to be quite inadequate for ambient temperature performance. At present, this restricts the use of such systems to high temperature applications. Several suggestions are given to overcome these obstacles

  14. Strengths and Limitations of Evidence-Based Dermatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Hywel C

    2014-01-01

    The need for understanding and reflecting on evidence-based dermatology (EBD) has never been greater given the exponential growth of new external evidence to inform clinical practice. Like any other branch of medicine, dermatologists need to acquire new skills in constructing answerable questions, efficiently searching electronic bibliographic databases, and critically appraising different types of studies. Secondary summaries of evidence in the form of systematic reviews (SR), that is, reviews that are conducted in a systematic, unbiased and explicit manner, reside at the top of the evidence hierarchy, because they are less prone to bias than traditional expert reviews. In addition to providing summaries of the best external evidence, systematic reviews and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are also powerful ways of identifying research gaps and ultimately setting the agenda of future clinical research in dermatology. But like any paradigm, EBD can have its limitations. Wrong application, misuse and overuse of EBD can have serious consequences. For example, mindless pooling together of data from dissimilar studies in a meta-analysis may render it a form of reductionism that does not make any sense. Similarly, even highly protocolised study designs such as SRs and RCTs are still susceptible to some degree of dishonesty and bias. Over-reliance on randomized controlled trials (RCT) may be inappropriate, as RCTs are not a good source for picking up rare but important adverse effects such as lupus syndrome with minocycline. A common criticism leveled against SRs is that these frequently conclude that there is lack of sufficient evidence to inform current clinical practice, but arguably, such a perception is grounded more on the interpretation of the SRs than anything else. The apparent absence of evidence should not paralyze the dermatologist to adopt a state of therapeutic nihilism. Poor primary data and an SR based on evidence that is not up-to-date are also

  15. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  16. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  17. Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarborough, J.C.

    1993-01-01

    In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

  18. Some computer simulations based on the linear relative risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report presents the results of computer simulations designed to evaluate and compare the performance of the likelihood ratio statistic and the score statistic for making inferences about the linear relative risk mode. The work was motivated by data on workers exposed to low doses of radiation, and the report includes illustration of several procedures for obtaining confidence limits for the excess relative risk coefficient based on data from three studies of nuclear workers. The computer simulations indicate that with small sample sizes and highly skewed dose distributions, asymptotic approximations to the score statistic or to the likelihood ratio statistic may not be adequate. For testing the null hypothesis that the excess relative risk is equal to zero, the asymptotic approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic was adequate, but use of the asymptotic approximation to the score statistic rejected the null hypothesis too often. Frequently the likelihood was maximized at the lower constraint, and when this occurred, the asymptotic approximations for the likelihood ratio and score statistics did not perform well in obtaining upper confidence limits. The score statistic and likelihood ratio statistics were found to perform comparably in terms of power and width of the confidence limits. It is recommended that with modest sample sizes, confidence limits be obtained using computer simulations based on the score statistic. Although nuclear worker studies are emphasized in this report, its results are relevant for any study investigating linear dose-response functions with highly skewed exposure distributions. 22 refs., 14 tabs

  19. Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

    2017-11-01

    Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations for greater confinement disposal compared to shallow land burial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Lester, D.H.; Robertson, L.D.; Spaeth, M.E.; Stoddard, J.A.; Dickman, P.T.

    1984-09-01

    A limited risk assessment and some cost/benefit considerations of greater confinement disposal (GCD) compared to shallow land burial (SLB) are presented. This study is limited to an analysis of the postclosure phase of hypothetical GCD and SLB facilities. Selected release scenarios are used which bound the range of risks to a maximally exposed individual and a hypothetical population. Based on the scenario assessments, GCD had a significant risk advantage over SLB for normal exposure pathways at both humid and arid sites, particularly for the human intrusion scenario. Since GCD costs are somewhat higher than SLB, it is necessary to weigh the higher costs of GCD against the higher risks of SLB. In this regard, GCD should be pursued as an alternative to SLB for certain types of low-level waste, and as an alternative to processing for wastes requiring improved stabilization or higher integrity packaging to be compatible with SLB. There are two reasons for this conclusion. First, GCD might diminish public apprehension regarding the disposal of wastes perceived to be too hazardous for SLB. Second, GCD may be a relatively cost-effective alternative to various stabilization and packaging schemes required to meet 10 CFR 61 near-surface requirements as well as being a cost-effective alternative to deep geologic disposal. Radionuclide transport through the biosphere and resultant dose consequences were determined using the RADTRAN radionuclide transport code. 19 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

  1. Impact of selected risk factors on expected lifetime without long-standing, limiting illness in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

    2007-01-01

    long-standing, limiting illness was 8-10 years shorter among sedentary than physically active people. Obesity shortened lifetime without illness by 5 years for men and ten years for women. CONCLUSION: The results of this study could be used in health policy-making, as the potential gains in public......OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impacts of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and overweight on expected lifetime with and without long-standing, limiting illness. METHODS: Life tables for each level of exposure to the risk factors were constructed, mainly on the basis......-olds was 9-10 years shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke, and all the lifetime lost would have been without long-standing, limiting illness. Similarly, all 5 years of expected lifetime lost by men with high alcohol consumption would have been without illness. The expected lifetime without...

  2. A risk-informed basis for establishing non-fixed surface contamination limits for spent fuel transportation casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rawl, R.R.; Eckerman, K.F.; Bogard, J.S.; Cook, J.R.

    2004-01-01

    The current limits for non-fixed contamination on packages used to transport radioactive materials were introduced in the 1961 edition of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) transport regulations and were based on radiation protection guidance and practices in use at that time. The limits were based on exposure scenarios leading to intakes of radionuclides by inhalation and external irradiation of the hands. These considerations are collectively referred to as the Fairbairn model. Although formulated over 40 years ago, the model remains unchanged and is still the basis of current regulatory-derived limits on package non-fixed surface contamination. There can also be doses that while not resulting directly from the contamination, are strongly influenced by and attributable to transport regulatory requirements for contamination control. For example, actions necessary to comply with the current derived limits for light-water-reactor (LWR) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks can result in significant external doses to workers. This is due to the relatively high radiation levels around the loaded casks, where workers must function during the measurement of contamination levels and while decontaminating the cask. In order to optimize the total dose received due to compliance with cask contamination levels, it is necessary to take into account all the doses that vary as a result of the regulatory limit. Limits for non-fixed surface contamination on spent fuel casks should be established by using a model that considers and optimizes the appropriate exposure scenarios both in the workplace and in the public environment. A risk-informed approach is needed to ensure optimal use of personnel and material resources for SNF-based packaging operations. This paper is a summary of a study sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory that examined the dose implications for removable surface contamination limits on spent fuel

  3. 12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

  4. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  5. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  6. Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.

  7. Limit loads for pipe bends under combined pressure and in-plane bending based on finite element limit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Chang Sik; Kim, Yun Jae

    2006-01-01

    In the present paper, approximate plastic limit load solutions for pipe bends under combined internal pressure and bending are obtained from detailed three-dimensional (3-D) FE limit analyses based on elastic-perfectly plastic materials with the small geometry change option. The present FE results show that existing limit load solutions for pipe bends are lower bounds but can be very different from the present FE results in some cases, particularly for bending. Accordingly closed-form approximations are proposed for pipe bends under combined pressure and in-plane bending based on the present FE results. The proposed limit load solutions would be a basis of defective pipe bends and be useful to estimate non-linear fracture mechanics parameters based on the reference stress approach

  8. Usefulness and limits of biological dosimetry based on cytogenetic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonard, A.; Rueff, J.; Gerber, G. B.; Leonard, E. D.

    2005-01-01

    Damage from occupational or accidental exposure to ionising radiation is often assessed by monitoring chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes, and these procedures have, in several cases, assisted physicians in the management of irradiated persons. Thereby, circulating lymphocytes, which are in the G0 stage of the cell cycle are stimulated with a mitogenic agent, usually phytohaemagglutinin, to replicate in vitro their DNA and enter cell division, and are then observed for abnormalities. Comparison with dose response relationships obtained in vitro allows an estimate of exposure based on scoring: - Unstable aberrations by the conventional, well-established analysis of metaphases for chromosome abnormalities or for micronuclei; - So-called stable aberrations by the classical G-banding (Giemsa-Stain-banding) technique or by the more recently developed fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH) method using fluorescent-labelled probes for centromeres and chromosomes. Three factors need to be considered in applying such biological dosimetry: (1) Radiation doses in the body are often inhomogeneous. A comparison of the distribution of the observed aberrations among with that expected from a normal poisson distribution can allow conclusions to be made with regard to the inhomogeneity of exposure by means of the so-called contaminated poisson distribution method; however, its application requires a sufficiently large number of aberrations, i.e. an exposure to a rather large dose at a high dose rate. (2) Exposure can occur at a low dose rate (e.g. from spread or lost radioactive sources) rendering a comparison with in vitro exposure hazardous. Dose-effect relationships of most aberrations that were scored, such as translocations, follow a square law. Repair intervening during exposure reduces the quadratic component with decreasing dose rate as exposure is spread over a longer period of time. No valid solution for this problem has yet been developed, although

  9. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  11. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  12. 13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

  13. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  14. Limitations and problems in deriving risk estimates for low-level radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1981-01-01

    Some of the problems in determining the cancer risk of low-level radiation from studies of exposed groups are reviewed and applied to the study of Hanford workers by Mancuso, Stewart, and Kneale. Problems considered are statistical limitations, variation of cancer rates with geography and race, the ''healthy worker effect,'' calendar year and age variation of cancer mortality, choosing from long lists, use of proportional mortality rates, cigarette smoking-cancer correlations, use of averages to represent data distributions, ignoring other data, and correlations between radiation exposure and other factors that may cause cancer. The current status of studies of the Hanford workers is reviewed

  15. Fundamental limits on quantum dynamics based on entropy change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Siddhartha; Khatri, Sumeet; Siopsis, George; Wilde, Mark M.

    2018-01-01

    It is well known in the realm of quantum mechanics and information theory that the entropy is non-decreasing for the class of unital physical processes. However, in general, the entropy does not exhibit monotonic behavior. This has restricted the use of entropy change in characterizing evolution processes. Recently, a lower bound on the entropy change was provided in the work of Buscemi, Das, and Wilde [Phys. Rev. A 93(6), 062314 (2016)]. We explore the limit that this bound places on the physical evolution of a quantum system and discuss how these limits can be used as witnesses to characterize quantum dynamics. In particular, we derive a lower limit on the rate of entropy change for memoryless quantum dynamics, and we argue that it provides a witness of non-unitality. This limit on the rate of entropy change leads to definitions of several witnesses for testing memory effects in quantum dynamics. Furthermore, from the aforementioned lower bound on entropy change, we obtain a measure of non-unitarity for unital evolutions.

  16. MODELLING OF CONCENTRATION LIMITS BASED ON NEURAL NETWORKS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Osipov

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We study the forecasting model with the concentration limits is-the use of neural network technology. The software for the implementation of these models. It is shown that the efficiency of the system in the experimental material.

  17. ℓ0 Gradient Minimization Based Image Reconstruction for Limited-Angle Computed Tomography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yu

    Full Text Available In medical and industrial applications of computed tomography (CT imaging, limited by the scanning environment and the risk of excessive X-ray radiation exposure imposed to the patients, reconstructing high quality CT images from limited projection data has become a hot topic. X-ray imaging in limited scanning angular range is an effective imaging modality to reduce the radiation dose to the patients. As the projection data available in this modality are incomplete, limited-angle CT image reconstruction is actually an ill-posed inverse problem. To solve the problem, image reconstructed by conventional filtered back projection (FBP algorithm frequently results in conspicuous streak artifacts and gradual changed artifacts nearby edges. Image reconstruction based on total variation minimization (TVM can significantly reduce streak artifacts in few-view CT, but it suffers from the gradual changed artifacts nearby edges in limited-angle CT. To suppress this kind of artifacts, we develop an image reconstruction algorithm based on ℓ0 gradient minimization for limited-angle CT in this paper. The ℓ0-norm of the image gradient is taken as the regularization function in the framework of developed reconstruction model. We transformed the optimization problem into a few optimization sub-problems and then, solved these sub-problems in the manner of alternating iteration. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the efficiency and the feasibility of the developed algorithm. From the statistical analysis results of the performance evaluations peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR and normalized root mean square distance (NRMSD, it shows that there are significant statistical differences between different algorithms from different scanning angular ranges (p<0.0001. From the experimental results, it also indicates that the developed algorithm outperforms classical reconstruction algorithms in suppressing the streak artifacts and the gradual changed

  18. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  19. Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

    2018-04-01

    Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

  20. Vehicle Maximum Weight Limitation Based on Intelligent Weight Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raihan, W.; Tessar, R. M.; Ernest, C. O. S.; E Byan, W. R.; Winda, A.

    2017-03-01

    Vehicle weight is an important factor to be maintained for transportation safety. A weight limitation system is proposed to make sure the vehicle weight is always below its designation prior the vehicle is being used by the driver. The proposed system is divided into two systems, namely vehicle weight confirmation system and weight warning system. In vehicle weight confirmation system, the weight sensor work for the first time after the ignition switch is turned on. When the weight is under the weight limit, the starter engine can be switched on to start the engine system, otherwise it will be locked. The seconds system, will operated after checking all the door at close position, once the door of the car is closed, the weight warning system will check once again the weight during runing engine condition. The results of these two systems, vehicle weight confirmation system and weight warning system have 100 % accuracy, respectively. These show that the proposed vehicle weight limitation system operate well.

  1. The nutritional limitations of plant-based beverages in infancy and childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitoria, Isidro

    2017-10-24

    Breastfeeding, infant formula and cow's milk are basic foods in infant nutrition. However, they are being increasingly replaced either totally or partially by plant-based beverages.The composition of 164 plant-based beverages available in Spain was reviewed based on the nutritional labeling of the package and the manufacturers' webpages. This was compared to the composition of cow's milk and infant formula. In addition, the nutritional disease associated with consumption of plant-based beverages in infants and children was reviewed by means of a literature search in Medline and Embase since 1990 based on the key words "plant-based beverages" or "rice beverages" or "almond beverages" or "soy beverages" and "infant" or "child".The nutritional composition of 54 soy beverages, 24 rice beverages, 22 almond beverages, 31 oat beverages, 6 coconut beverages, 12 miscellaneous beverages and 15 mixed beverages was described. At least 30 cases of nutritional disease in children associated with nearly exclusive consumption of plant-based beverages have been published. A characteristic association has been observed between soy beverage and rickets, rice beverage and kwashiorkor, and almond-based beverage and metabolic alkalosis.The nutritional quality of plant-based beverages is lower than that of cow's milk and infant formula, therefore they are not a nutritional alternative. Predominant or exclusive use of these beverages in infant feeding can lead to serious nutritional risks. In the case of nonexclusive feeding with these beverages, the pediatrician should be aware of the nutritional risks and limitations of these beverages in order to complement their deficiencies with other foods.

  2. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  3. Competence-Based Education and the Limitations of Critique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Drawing upon the work of Foucault and Latour, this article reflects on 25 years of critique of competence-based education and its continuing strength as a way of framing education and training. Using an example from England, it rehearses the argument from Foucault that, despite its student-centred discourse, competence-based education can be…

  4. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  5. Assessing control of postural stability in community-living older adults using performance-based limits of stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jbabdi, Myriam; Boissy, Patrice; Hamel, Mathieu

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Balance disability measurements routinely used to identify fall risks in frail populations have limited value in the early detection of postural stability deficits in community-living older adults. The objectives of the study were to 1) measure performance-based limits of stability (LOS......-session performance variability during multiple trials using the performance-based LOS paradigm. METHODS: Twenty-four healthy community-living older adults (10 men, 14 women) aged between 62 to 85 (mean age +/- sd, 71.5 +/- 6 yrs) participated in the study. Subjects' performance-based LOS were established by asking...

  6. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  7. An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fayaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

  8. IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaoling

    Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

  9. Limits in feature-based attention to multiple colors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Taosheng; Jigo, Michael

    2017-11-01

    Attention to a feature enhances the sensory representation of that feature. Although much has been learned about the properties of attentional modulation when attending to a single feature, the effectiveness of attending to multiple features is not well understood. We investigated this question in a series of experiments using a color-detection task while varying the number of attended colors in a cueing paradigm. Observers were shown either a single cue, two cues, or no cue (baseline) before detecting a coherent color target. We measured detection threshold by varying the coherence level of the target. Compared to the baseline condition, we found consistent facilitation of detection performance in the one-cue and two-cue conditions, but performance in the two-cue condition was lower than that in the one-cue condition. In the final experiment, we presented a 50% valid cue to emulate the situation in which observers were only able to attend a single color in the two-cue condition, and found equivalent detection thresholds with the standard two-cue condition. These results indicate a limit in attending to two colors and further imply that observers could effectively attend a single color at a time. Such a limit is likely due to an inability to maintain multiple active attentional templates for colors.

  10. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  11. Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new

  12. MANDATING DISCLOSURE OF CONSCIENCE-BASED LIMITATIONS ON MEDICAL PRACTICE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicki, Nadia N

    2016-01-01

    Stakeholders in law, medicine, and religion are unable to reach consensus about how best to address conflicts between healthcare providers' conscientious objections to treatment and patients' rights to access medical care. Conscience laws that protect objecting providers and institutions from liability are criticized as too broad by patient advocates and as too narrow by defenders of religious freedom. This Article posits that some of the tension between these stakeholders could be mitigated by statutory recognition of a duty on the part of healthcare institutions or providers to disclose conscientiously motivated limitations on practice. While this solution would not guarantee a patient's access to treatment, referral, or information from any given provider, it would prevent some of the more egregious cases of denial of treatment--those where patients are not made aware that a legal and clinically defensible treatment option is excluded from a provider's or institution's scope of practice and so have no opportunity to seek care elsewhere.

  13. Speckle perception and disturbance limit in laser based projectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschaffelt, Guy; Roelandt, Stijn; Meuret, Youri; Van den Broeck, Wendy; Kilpi, Katriina; Lievens, Bram; Jacobs, An; Janssens, Peter; Thienpont, Hugo

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the level of speckle that can be tolerated in a laser cinema projector. For this purpose, we equipped a movie theatre room with a prototype laser projector. A group of 186 participants was gathered to evaluate the speckle perception of several, short movie trailers in a subjective `Quality of Experience' experiment. This study is important as the introduction of lasers in projection systems has been hampered by the presence of speckle in projected images. We identify a speckle disturbance threshold by statistically analyzing the observers' responses for different values of the amount of speckle, which was monitored using a well-defined speckle measurement method. The analysis shows that the speckle perception of a human observer is not only dependent on the objectively measured amount of speckle, but it is also strongly influenced by the image content. As is also discussed in [Verschaffelt et al., Scientific Reports 5, art. nr. 14105, 2015] we find that, for moving images, the speckle becomes disturbing if the speckle contrast becomes larger than 6.9% for the red, 6.0% for the green, and 4.8% for the blue primary colors of the projector, whereas for still images the speckle detection threshold is about 3%. As we could not independently tune the speckle contrast of each of the primary colors, this speckle disturbance limit seems to be determined by the 6.9% speckle contrast of the red color as this primary color contains the largest amount of speckle. The speckle disturbance limit for movies thus turns out to be substantially larger than that for still images, and hence is easier to attain.

  14. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  15. The risk of PCI damage to 8x8 fuel rods during limit cycle instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrire, D.; Oguma, R.; Malen, K.

    1994-12-31

    A BWR reactor core may experience thermal-hydraulic instability under certain operating conditions. Generally, the instability results in neutron flux (i e generated neutronic power) and coolant flow and pressure oscillations, which reach a maximum `limit cycle` amplitude. The cladding response to power transients has been studied using noise analysis. These results have been compared to results from code calculations using the fuel code TOODEE 2. From these results the risk for fuel rod failure due to pellet-clad mechanical interaction and possible failure due to stress corrosion cracking (PCI) has been estimated. It turns out that for the oscillation frequencies of interest (0,3-0,5 Hz) the fuel response amplitude reduction makes PCI-failure improbable. 17 refs.

  16. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  17. Reliability analysis - systematic approach based on limited data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourne, A.J.

    1975-11-01

    The initial approaches required for reliability analysis are outlined. These approaches highlight the system boundaries, examine the conditions under which the system is required to operate, and define the overall performance requirements. The discussion is illustrated by a simple example of an automatic protective system for a nuclear reactor. It is then shown how the initial approach leads to a method of defining the system, establishing performance parameters of interest and determining the general form of reliability models to be used. The overall system model and the availability of reliability data at the system level are next examined. An iterative process is then described whereby the reliability model and data requirements are systematically refined at progressively lower hierarchic levels of the system. At each stage, the approach is illustrated with examples from the protective system previously described. The main advantages of the approach put forward are the systematic process of analysis, the concentration of assessment effort in the critical areas and the maximum use of limited reliability data. (author)

  18. Evaluation of regulatory variation and theoretical health risk for pesticide maximum residue limits in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zijian

    2018-08-01

    To evaluate whether pesticide maximum residue limits (MRLs) can protect public health, a deterministic dietary risk assessment of maximum pesticide legal exposure was conducted to convert global MRLs to theoretical maximum dose intake (TMDI) values by estimating the average food intake rate and human body weight for each country. A total of 114 nations (58% of the total nations in the world) and two international organizations, including the European Union (EU) and Codex (WHO) have regulated at least one of the most currently used pesticides in at least one of the most consumed agricultural commodities. In this study, 14 of the most commonly used pesticides and 12 of the most commonly consumed agricultural commodities were identified and selected for analysis. A health risk analysis indicated that nearly 30% of the computed pesticide TMDI values were greater than the acceptable daily intake (ADI) values; however, many nations lack common pesticide MRLs in many commonly consumed foods and other human exposure pathways, such as soil, water, and air were not considered. Normality tests of the TMDI values set indicated that all distributions had a right skewness due to large TMDI clusters at the low end of the distribution, which were caused by some strict pesticide MRLs regulated by the EU (normally a default MRL of 0.01 mg/kg when essential data are missing). The Box-Cox transformation and optimal lambda (λ) were applied to these TMDI distributions, and normality tests of the transformed data set indicated that the power transformed TMDI values of at least eight pesticides presented a normal distribution. It was concluded that unifying strict pesticide MRLs by nations worldwide could significantly skew the distribution of TMDI values to the right, lower the legal exposure to pesticide, and effectively control human health risks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessment of drug-induced arrhythmic risk using limit cycle and autocorrelation analysis of human iPSC-cardiomyocyte contractility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirby, R. Jason [Sanford Burnham Prebys Medical Discovery Institute, Conrad Prebys Center for Chemical Genomics, 6400 Sanger Rd, Orlando, FL 32827 (United States); Qi, Feng [Sanford Burnham Prebys Medical Discovery Institute, Applied Bioinformatics Facility, 6400 Sanger Rd, Orlando, FL 32827 (United States); Phatak, Sharangdhar; Smith, Layton H. [Sanford Burnham Prebys Medical Discovery Institute, Conrad Prebys Center for Chemical Genomics, 6400 Sanger Rd, Orlando, FL 32827 (United States); Malany, Siobhan, E-mail: smalany@sbpdiscovery.org [Sanford Burnham Prebys Medical Discovery Institute, Conrad Prebys Center for Chemical Genomics, 6400 Sanger Rd, Orlando, FL 32827 (United States)

    2016-08-15

    Cardiac safety assays incorporating label-free detection of human stem-cell derived cardiomyocyte contractility provide human relevance and medium throughput screening to assess compound-induced cardiotoxicity. In an effort to provide quantitative analysis of the large kinetic datasets resulting from these real-time studies, we applied bioinformatic approaches based on nonlinear dynamical system analysis, including limit cycle analysis and autocorrelation function, to systematically assess beat irregularity. The algorithms were integrated into a software program to seamlessly generate results for 96-well impedance-based data. Our approach was validated by analyzing dose- and time-dependent changes in beat patterns induced by known proarrhythmic compounds and screening a cardiotoxicity library to rank order compounds based on their proarrhythmic potential. We demonstrate a strong correlation for dose-dependent beat irregularity monitored by electrical impedance and quantified by autocorrelation analysis to traditional manual patch clamp potency values for hERG blockers. In addition, our platform identifies non-hERG blockers known to cause clinical arrhythmia. Our method provides a novel suite of medium-throughput quantitative tools for assessing compound effects on cardiac contractility and predicting compounds with potential proarrhythmia and may be applied to in vitro paradigms for pre-clinical cardiac safety evaluation. - Highlights: • Impedance-based monitoring of human iPSC-derived cardiomyocyte contractility • Limit cycle analysis of impedance data identifies aberrant oscillation patterns. • Nonlinear autocorrelation function quantifies beat irregularity. • Identification of hERG and non-hERG inhibitors with known risk of arrhythmia • Automated software processes limit cycle and autocorrelation analyses of 96w data.

  20. Assessment of drug-induced arrhythmic risk using limit cycle and autocorrelation analysis of human iPSC-cardiomyocyte contractility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, R. Jason; Qi, Feng; Phatak, Sharangdhar; Smith, Layton H.; Malany, Siobhan

    2016-01-01

    Cardiac safety assays incorporating label-free detection of human stem-cell derived cardiomyocyte contractility provide human relevance and medium throughput screening to assess compound-induced cardiotoxicity. In an effort to provide quantitative analysis of the large kinetic datasets resulting from these real-time studies, we applied bioinformatic approaches based on nonlinear dynamical system analysis, including limit cycle analysis and autocorrelation function, to systematically assess beat irregularity. The algorithms were integrated into a software program to seamlessly generate results for 96-well impedance-based data. Our approach was validated by analyzing dose- and time-dependent changes in beat patterns induced by known proarrhythmic compounds and screening a cardiotoxicity library to rank order compounds based on their proarrhythmic potential. We demonstrate a strong correlation for dose-dependent beat irregularity monitored by electrical impedance and quantified by autocorrelation analysis to traditional manual patch clamp potency values for hERG blockers. In addition, our platform identifies non-hERG blockers known to cause clinical arrhythmia. Our method provides a novel suite of medium-throughput quantitative tools for assessing compound effects on cardiac contractility and predicting compounds with potential proarrhythmia and may be applied to in vitro paradigms for pre-clinical cardiac safety evaluation. - Highlights: • Impedance-based monitoring of human iPSC-derived cardiomyocyte contractility • Limit cycle analysis of impedance data identifies aberrant oscillation patterns. • Nonlinear autocorrelation function quantifies beat irregularity. • Identification of hERG and non-hERG inhibitors with known risk of arrhythmia • Automated software processes limit cycle and autocorrelation analyses of 96w data

  1. Kinetic memory based on the enzyme-limited competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatakeyama, Tetsuhiro S; Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2014-08-01

    Cellular memory, which allows cells to retain information from their environment, is important for a variety of cellular functions, such as adaptation to external stimuli, cell differentiation, and synaptic plasticity. Although posttranslational modifications have received much attention as a source of cellular memory, the mechanisms directing such alterations have not been fully uncovered. It may be possible to embed memory in multiple stable states in dynamical systems governing modifications. However, several experiments on modifications of proteins suggest long-term relaxation depending on experienced external conditions, without explicit switches over multi-stable states. As an alternative to a multistability memory scheme, we propose "kinetic memory" for epigenetic cellular memory, in which memory is stored as a slow-relaxation process far from a stable fixed state. Information from previous environmental exposure is retained as the long-term maintenance of a cellular state, rather than switches over fixed states. To demonstrate this kinetic memory, we study several models in which multimeric proteins undergo catalytic modifications (e.g., phosphorylation and methylation), and find that a slow relaxation process of the modification state, logarithmic in time, appears when the concentration of a catalyst (enzyme) involved in the modification reactions is lower than that of the substrates. Sharp transitions from a normal fast-relaxation phase into this slow-relaxation phase are revealed, and explained by enzyme-limited competition among modification reactions. The slow-relaxation process is confirmed by simulations of several models of catalytic reactions of protein modifications, and it enables the memorization of external stimuli, as its time course depends crucially on the history of the stimuli. This kinetic memory provides novel insight into a broad class of cellular memory and functions. In particular, applications for long-term potentiation are discussed

  2. Flexible transfer limits in an open power market - Congestion versus risk of interruption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warland, Geir

    1999-07-01

    Traditionally, power systems have been operated by deterministic criteria which tend to provide conservative security limits and will be inflexible and insensitive to changes in outage probabilities or market demands in a deregulated power system. This thesis introduces a new approach to power system operation in which the determination of operating limits for critical transmission lines or corridors is presented as a multiobjective decision problem, including risk assessment. Two objectives are included: (1) minimization of operating cost and (2) obtaining a secure operating level. The operating costs included are congestion costs, interruption costs and the costs of corrective or preventive actions to enhance security. In modelling uncertainties, a fuzzy model for the amount of load lost due to outages is presented. It includes the subjective uncertainty in the assessment of the amount of load lost, considering weather dependency of outage probabilities. There are four main conclusions: (1) The approach is flexible and sensitive to changes in outage probabilities and market demand, (2) A recommended solution will depend on system operator preference and expert opinion, (3) The approach includes the deterministic N-1 criterion as a special case, (4) The regret measure may in some difficult cases lead to indecision between solutions. 84 refs., 71 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Flexible transfer limits in an open power market - Congestion versus risk of interruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warland, Geir

    1999-01-01

    Traditionally, power systems have been operated by deterministic criteria which tend to provide conservative security limits and will be inflexible and insensitive to changes in outage probabilities or market demands in a deregulated power system. This thesis introduces a new approach to power system operation in which the determination of operating limits for critical transmission lines or corridors is presented as a multiobjective decision problem, including risk assessment. Two objectives are included: (1) minimization of operating cost and (2) obtaining a secure operating level. The operating costs included are congestion costs, interruption costs and the costs of corrective or preventive actions to enhance security. In modelling uncertainties, a fuzzy model for the amount of load lost due to outages is presented. It includes the subjective uncertainty in the assessment of the amount of load lost, considering weather dependency of outage probabilities. There are four main conclusions: (1) The approach is flexible and sensitive to changes in outage probabilities and market demand, (2) A recommended solution will depend on system operator preference and expert opinion, (3) The approach includes the deterministic N-1 criterion as a special case, (4) The regret measure may in some difficult cases lead to indecision between solutions. 84 refs., 71 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  5. In service monitoring based on fatigue analyses, possibilities and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dittmar, S.; Binder, F.

    2004-01-01

    German LWR reactors are equipped with monitoring systems which are to enable a comparison of real transients with load case catalogues and fatigue catalogues for fatigue analyses. The information accuracy depends on the accuracy of measurements, on the consideration of parameters influencing fatigue (medium, component surface, component size, etc.), and on the accuracy of the load analyses. The contribution attempts a critical evaluation, also inview of the fact that real fatigue damage often are impossible to quantify on the basis of fatigue analyses at a later stage. The effects of the consideration or non-consideration of various influencing factors are discussed, as well as the consequences of the scatter of material characteristics on which the analyses are based. Possible measures to be taken in operational monitoring are derived. (orig.) [de

  6. Safety assessment of historical masonry churches based on pre-assigned kinematic limit analysis, FE limit and pushover analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milani, Gabriele, E-mail: milani@stru.polimi.it; Valente, Marco, E-mail: milani@stru.polimi.it [Department of Architecture, Built Environment and Construction Engineering (ABC), Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milan (Italy)

    2014-10-06

    This study presents some results of a comprehensive numerical analysis on three masonry churches damaged by the recent Emilia-Romagna (Italy) seismic events occurred in May 2012. The numerical study comprises: (a) pushover analyses conducted with a commercial code, standard nonlinear material models and two different horizontal load distributions; (b) FE kinematic limit analyses performed using a non-commercial software based on a preliminary homogenization of the masonry materials and a subsequent limit analysis with triangular elements and interfaces; (c) kinematic limit analyses conducted in agreement with the Italian code and based on the a-priori assumption of preassigned failure mechanisms, where the masonry material is considered unable to withstand tensile stresses. All models are capable of giving information on the active failure mechanism and the base shear at failure, which, if properly made non-dimensional with the weight of the structure, gives also an indication of the horizontal peak ground acceleration causing the collapse of the church. The results obtained from all three models indicate that the collapse is usually due to the activation of partial mechanisms (apse, façade, lateral walls, etc.). Moreover the horizontal peak ground acceleration associated to the collapse is largely lower than that required in that seismic zone by the Italian code for ordinary buildings. These outcomes highlight that structural upgrading interventions would be extremely beneficial for the considerable reduction of the seismic vulnerability of such kind of historical structures.

  7. Safety assessment of historical masonry churches based on pre-assigned kinematic limit analysis, FE limit and pushover analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, Gabriele; Valente, Marco

    2014-01-01

    This study presents some results of a comprehensive numerical analysis on three masonry churches damaged by the recent Emilia-Romagna (Italy) seismic events occurred in May 2012. The numerical study comprises: (a) pushover analyses conducted with a commercial code, standard nonlinear material models and two different horizontal load distributions; (b) FE kinematic limit analyses performed using a non-commercial software based on a preliminary homogenization of the masonry materials and a subsequent limit analysis with triangular elements and interfaces; (c) kinematic limit analyses conducted in agreement with the Italian code and based on the a-priori assumption of preassigned failure mechanisms, where the masonry material is considered unable to withstand tensile stresses. All models are capable of giving information on the active failure mechanism and the base shear at failure, which, if properly made non-dimensional with the weight of the structure, gives also an indication of the horizontal peak ground acceleration causing the collapse of the church. The results obtained from all three models indicate that the collapse is usually due to the activation of partial mechanisms (apse, façade, lateral walls, etc.). Moreover the horizontal peak ground acceleration associated to the collapse is largely lower than that required in that seismic zone by the Italian code for ordinary buildings. These outcomes highlight that structural upgrading interventions would be extremely beneficial for the considerable reduction of the seismic vulnerability of such kind of historical structures

  8. Risk Based Corrosion Studies at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.

    2010-01-01

    TYPE I and II (ASTM 285-B) - Experienced stress corrosion cracking (SCC), 2 have been closed; 22 scheduled for closure by 2017, and No active leak sites today. TYPE III (ASTM A516-70 and A537 Class I) - Post-fabrication relief of weld residual stresses, Improved resistance to SCC and brittle fracture, No leakage history, and Receives new waste. The objectives are to utilize statistical methods to reduce conservatism in current chemistry control program; and express nitrite inhibitor limits in terms of pitting risk on waste tank steel. Conclusions are: (1) A statistically designed experimental study has been undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting corrosion; (2) Mixture/amount model supports that pitting depends on the ratio of aggressive to inhibitive anions, as well as the concentration of each species; (3) Secondary aggressive species, Cl - and SO 4 2- , significantly effect the corrosion response; and (4) Results support the reduction of the chemistry control nitrite inhibitor concentrations in the regime of 0.8-1.0 M nitrate.

  9. Quality assurance of nuclear analytical techniques based on Bayesian characteristic limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, R.

    2000-01-01

    Based on Bayesian statistics, characteristic limits such as decision threshold, detection limit and confidence limits can be calculated taking into account all sources of experimental uncertainties. This approach separates the complete evaluation of a measurement according to the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement from the determination of the characteristic limits. Using the principle of maximum entropy the characteristic limits are determined from the complete standard uncertainty of the measurand. (author)

  10. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  11. Physically based probability criterion for exceeding radionuclide concentration limits in heterogeneous bedrock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worman, A.; Xu, S.; Dverstorp, B.

    2004-01-01

    A significant problem in a risk analysis of the repository for high-level nuclear waste is to estimate the barrier effect of the geosphere. The significant spatial variability of the rock properties implies that migrating RNs encounter a distribution of bedrock properties and mass-transfer mechanisms in different proportions along the transport paths. For practical reasons, we will never be able to know exactly this distribution of properties by performing a reasonable amount of measurements in a site investigation. On the contrary, recent experimental studies reveal that crystalline bedrock can possess a marked heterogeneity of various physical and geochemical properties that potentially may have a certain impact on the transport of RNs in fractured bedrock. Also current field investigation techniques provide only fragmentary information of the properties of the geosphere. This is a basic motivation for treating flows of water and solute elements in groundwaters by means of stochastic continuum models. The stochastic analysis is based on the idea that we know only certain point values of the property fields and use this information to estimate intermediate values. The probabilistic properties of the stochastic analysis are suitable input variables for risk analyses of the relevant sequence of extreme events for which empirical observations are rare or non-existing. The purpose of this paper is to outline the implications of the stochastic approach for estimating probabilities that certain concentration limits are exceeded at discharge points from. the bedrock in case of a leakage from the waste repository. The analysis is restricted to the water flow and solute transport in the bedrock alone without consideration of the full sequence of events in a full risk analysis and the Bayesian statistics involved in such conditioned (and cross-correlated) event series. The focus is on the implication for the risk analysis of the auto-covariance structure in bedrock

  12. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  13. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  14. Generally applicable limits on intakes of uranium based on its chemical toxicity and the radiological significance of intakes at those limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M C; Wilson, J

    2015-01-01

    Uranium is chemically toxic and radioactive, and both considerations have to be taken into account when limiting intakes of the element, in the context of both occupational and public exposures. Herein, the most recent information available on the chemical toxicity and biokinetics of uranium is used to propose new standards for limiting intakes of the element. The approach adopted allows coherent standards to be set for ingestion and inhalation of different chemical forms of the element by various age groups. It also allows coherent standards to be set for occupational and public exposures (including exposures of different age groups) and for various exposure regimes (including short-term and chronic exposures). The proposed standards are more restrictive than those used previously, but are less restrictive than the Minimal Risk Levels proposed recently by the US Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. Having developed a set of proposed limits based solely on chemical toxicity considerations, the radiological implications of exposure at those proposed limits are investigated for natural, depleted and enriched uranium. (paper)

  15. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  16. Developing safety performance functions incorporating reliability-based risk measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Shewkar El-Bassiouni; Sayed, Tarek

    2011-11-01

    Current geometric design guides provide deterministic standards where the safety margin of the design output is generally unknown and there is little knowledge of the safety implications of deviating from these standards. Several studies have advocated probabilistic geometric design where reliability analysis can be used to account for the uncertainty in the design parameters and to provide a risk measure of the implication of deviation from design standards. However, there is currently no link between measures of design reliability and the quantification of safety using collision frequency. The analysis presented in this paper attempts to bridge this gap by incorporating a reliability-based quantitative risk measure such as the probability of non-compliance (P(nc)) in safety performance functions (SPFs). Establishing this link will allow admitting reliability-based design into traditional benefit-cost analysis and should lead to a wider application of the reliability technique in road design. The present application is concerned with the design of horizontal curves, where the limit state function is defined in terms of the available (supply) and stopping (demand) sight distances. A comprehensive collision and geometric design database of two-lane rural highways is used to investigate the effect of the probability of non-compliance on safety. The reliability analysis was carried out using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Two Negative Binomial (NB) SPFs were developed to compare models with and without the reliability-based risk measures. It was found that models incorporating the P(nc) provided a better fit to the data set than the traditional (without risk) NB SPFs for total, injury and fatality (I+F) and property damage only (PDO) collisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Power MOSFET-diode-based limiter for high-frequency ultrasound systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hojong; Kim, Min Gon; Cummins, Thomas M; Hwang, Jae Youn; Shung, K Kirk

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of the limiter circuits used in the ultrasound imaging systems is to pass low-voltage echo signals generated by ultrasonic transducers while preventing high-voltage short pulses transmitted by pulsers from damaging front-end circuits. Resistor-diode-based limiters (a 50 Ω resistor with a single cross-coupled diode pair) have been widely used in pulse-echo measurement and imaging system applications due to their low cost and simple architecture. However, resistor-diode-based limiters may not be suited for high-frequency ultrasound transducer applications since they produce large signal conduction losses at higher frequencies. Therefore, we propose a new limiter architecture utilizing power MOSFETs, which we call a power MOSFET-diode-based limiter. The performance of a power MOSFET-diode-based limiter was evaluated with respect to insertion loss (IL), total harmonic distortion (THD), and response time (RT). We compared these results with those of three other conventional limiter designs and showed that the power MOSFET-diode-based limiter offers the lowest IL (-1.33 dB) and fastest RT (0.10 µs) with the lowest suppressed output voltage (3.47 Vp-p) among all the limiters at 70 MHz. A pulse-echo test was performed to determine how the new limiter affected the sensitivity and bandwidth of the transducer. We found that the sensitivity and bandwidth of the transducer were 130% and 129% greater, respectively, when combined with the new power MOSFET-diode-based limiter versus the resistor-diode-based limiter. Therefore, these results demonstrate that the power MOSFET-diode-based limiter is capable of producing lower signal attenuation than the three conventional limiter designs at higher frequency operation. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    For offshore wind turbines, maintenance costs are substantial due to a large number of component failures. In addition to the repair costs, equipment costs and lost production costs are large due to limited accessibility to the turbines. In order to reduce the costs, preventive methods can be used......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... maintenance costs, and many studies have also been published for preventive maintenance. However, an important part is the modeling of the relationship between maintenance and reliability, which is typically not modeled in a consistent way. Therefore, the methods cannot be used directly for optimal...

  19. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  20. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

  1. Bipolar-power-transistor-based limiter for high frequency ultrasound imaging systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hojong; Yang, Hao-Chung; Shung, K Kirk

    2014-03-01

    High performance limiters are described in this paper for applications in high frequency ultrasound imaging systems. Limiters protect the ultrasound receiver from the high voltage (HV) spikes produced by the transmitter. We present a new bipolar power transistor (BPT) configuration and compare its design and performance to a diode limiter used in traditional ultrasound research and one commercially available limiter. Limiter performance depends greatly on the insertion loss (IL), total harmonic distortion (THD) and response time (RT), each of which will be evaluated in all the limiters. The results indicated that, compared with commercial limiter, BPT-based limiter had less IL (-7.7 dB), THD (-74.6 dB) and lower RT (43 ns) at 100 MHz. To evaluate the capability of these limiters, they were connected to a 100 MHz single element transducer and a two-way pulse-echo test was performed. It was found that the -6 dB bandwidth and sensitivity of the transducer using BPT-based limiter were better than those of the commercial limiter by 22% and 140%, respectively. Compared to the commercial limiter, BPT-based limiter is shown to be capable of minimizing signal attenuation, RT and THD at high frequencies and is thus suited for high frequency ultrasound applications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. 12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

  3. Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masopust, R.

    1995-01-01

    A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

  4. Effects of Supply Chain Risk Management on Organization Performance: Case of Andy Forwarders Services Limited

    OpenAIRE

    Caroline Wanjiru Munyuko

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of the research was to determine the effects of Supply chain risk management on organization performance. Previous studies have focused on risk management within the general context of an organization but little attention has been focused on how supply chain risk affect organization performance in terms of its bottom line profits and overall organization objectives. Particular attention was paid to the effects of supply chain risk management variables to the performance of the org...

  5. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  6. Lifestyle-based risk model for fall risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sannino, Giovanna; De Falco, Ivanoe; De Pietro, Guiseppe

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the explicit relationship between life-style and the risk of falling under the form of a mathematical model. Starting from some personal and behavioral information of a subject as, e.g., weight, height, age, data about physical activity habits, and concern about falling, the model would estimate the score of her/his Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems (Mini-BES) test. This score ranges within 0 and 28, and the lower its value the more likely the subj...

  7. 75 FR 65881 - Ownership Limitations and Governance Requirements for Security-Based Swap Clearing Agencies...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-26

    ... it determines they are necessary or appropriate to improve the governance of, or to mitigate systemic... Part IV Securities and Exchange Commission 17 CFR Part 242 Ownership Limitations and Governance... Ownership Limitations and Governance Requirements for Security- Based Swap Clearing Agencies, Security-Based...

  8. Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

  9. Sleep Disordered Breathing in Four Resource-Limited Settings in Peru: Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Association with Chronic Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Noah G; Rattner, Adi; Schwartz, Alan R; Mokhlesi, Babak; Gilman, Robert H; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Miranda, J Jaime; Checkley, William

    2015-09-01

    Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) is a highly prevalent condition in high-income countries, with major consequences for cardiopulmonary health, public safety, healthcare utilization, and mortality. However, its prevalence and effect in low- and middle-income countries are less well known. We sought to determine the prevalence, risk factors, and comorbidities of SDB symptoms in four resource-limited settings. Cross-sectional analysis of the CRONICAS Cohort, a population-based age- and sex-stratified sample. Four resource-limited settings in Peru varying in altitude, urbanization, and air pollution. There were 2,682 adults aged 35 to 92 y. Self-reported SDB symptoms (habitual snoring, observed apneas, Epworth Sleepiness Scale), sociodemographics, medical history, anthropometrics, spirometry, blood biomarkers were reported. We found a high prevalence of habitual snoring (30.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 28.5-32.0%), observed apneas (20.9%, 95% CI 19.4-22.5%) and excessive daytime sleepiness (18.6%, 95% CI 17.1-20.1%). SDB symptoms varied across sites; prevalence and adjusted odds for habitual snoring were greatest at sea level, whereas those for observed apneas were greatest at high altitude. In multivariable analysis, habitual snoring was associated with older age, male sex, body mass index (BMI), and higher socioeconomic status; observed apneas were associated with BMI; and excessive daytime sleepiness was associated with older age, female sex, and medium socioeconomic status. Adjusted odds of cardiovascular disease, depression, and hypertension and total chronic disease burden increased progressively with the number of SDB symptoms. A threefold increase in the odds of having an additional chronic comorbid disease (adjusted odds ratio 3.57, 95% CI 2.18-5.84) was observed in those with all three versus no SDB symptoms. Sleep disordered breathing symptoms were highly prevalent, varied widely across four resource-limited settings in Peru, and exhibited strong

  10. Limited clinical efficacy of azacitidine in transfusion-dependent, growth factor-resistant, low- and Int-1-risk MDS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Mette; Dybedahl, I; Holm, Mette

    2014-01-01

    This prospective phase II study evaluated the efficacy of azacitidine (Aza)+erythropoietin (Epo) in transfusion-dependent patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Patients ineligible for or refractory to full-dose Epo+granulocyte colony stimulation factors for >8 weeks and a trans...... patients, but efficacy is limited, toxicity substantial and most responses of short duration. This treatment cannot be generally recommended in lower-risk MDS. Mutational screening revealed a high frequency of mutations....

  11. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  12. Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-09-29

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the biggest causes of death worldwide. In most people, CVD is the product of a number of causal risk factors. Several seemingly modest risk factors may, in combination, result in a much higher risk than an impressively raised single factor. For this reason, risk estimation systems have been developed to assist clinicians to assess the effects of risk factor combinations in planning management strategies. In this article, the performances of the major risk estimation systems are reviewed. Most perform usably well in populations that are similar to the one used to derive the system, and in other populations if calibrated to allow for different CVD mortality rates and different risk factor distributions. The effect of adding "new" risk factors to age, sex, smoking, lipid status, and blood pressure is usually small, but may help to appropriately reclassify some of those patients who are close to a treatment threshold to a more correct "treat\\/do not treat" category. Risk estimation in the young and old needs more research. Quantification of the hoped-for benefits of the multiple risk estimation approach in terms of improved outcomes is still needed. But, it is likely that the widespread use of such an approach will help to address the issues of both undertreatment and overtreatment.

  13. Highway crash rates and age-related driver limitations: Literature review and evaluation of data bases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Young, J.R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States); Lu, An [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States)

    1993-08-01

    American society is undergoing a major demographic transformation that is resulting in a larger proportion of older individuals in the population. Moreover, recent travel surveys show that an increasing number of older individuals are licensed to drive and that they drive more than their same age cohort a decade ago. However, they continue to take shorter trips than younger drivers and they avoid driving during congested hours. This recent demographic transformation in our society, the graying of America, coupled with the increasing mobility of the older population impose a serious highway safety issue that cannot be overlooked. Some of the major concerns are the identification of ``high-risk`` older drivers and the establishment of licensing guidelines and procedures that are based on conclusive scientific evidence. Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL) objectives in this project can be characterized by the following tasks: Review and evaluate the 1980 American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) licensing guidelines. Determine whether the license restriction recommended in the 1980 AAMVA and NHTSA guidelines was based on scientific evidence or on judgement of medical advisors. Identify in the scientific literature any medical conditions which are found to be highly associated with highway crashes, and which are not mentioned in the 1980 guidelines. Summarize States` current licensing practices for drivers with age-related physical and mental limitations. Identify potential data sources to establish conclusive evidence on age-related functional impairments and highway crashes.

  14. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  15. Reliability analysis and risk-based methods for planning of operation & maintenance of offshore wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    for extreme and fatigue limit states are presented. Operation & Maintenance planning often follows corrective and preventive strategies based on information from condition monitoring and structural health monitoring systems. A reliability- and risk-based approach is presented where a life-cycle approach...

  16. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  17. Risk model for suspected acute coronary syndrome is of limited value in an emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Christian Backer; Christiansen, Maja; Jørgensen, Jess Bjerre; Staehr, Peter Bisgaard

    2015-10-01

    Among patients with acute chest pain, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is seen only in a minority of the patients, which raises the question, whether it is possible to separate a group with a high risk of ACS for admission to a cardiac care unit (CCU) from those with a low risk who would be treated at an emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to describe a risk stratification model for a Danish context. This was a historic prospective cohort study of patients with suspicion of ACS. The patient was defined as a low-risk patient and admitted to the ED if: 1) electrocardiogram (ECG) was normal, 2) the patient did not have persisting chest pain and 3) there was no history of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure or cardioverter defibrillator. Otherwise, patients were admitted to the CCU. The primary outcome was whether the ACS diagnosis was confirmed or rejected. We included a total of 488 patients with suspicion of ACS, 50% of whom were low-risk patients. 17% had a verified ACS; 10% of those in the low-risk group and 24% of those in the high-risk group (p = 0.0001). Among the verified ACS cases, 71% went primarily to the CCU. The odds ratio for an ACS if assigned to the high-risk group was 3.0. Allocation to the high-risk group, male gender and age above 60 years was associated with a higher risk of ACS. For patients fulfilling the high-risk definition, sensitivity was 71%, specificity 55%, negative predictive value 90% and positive predictive value 24% for an ACS. The model for stratification separated patients into two equal groups, allocated 71% of all ACS directly to the CCU and could not be improved by any of the additional factors examined. Further development of referral strategies for chest pain patients is required. none. not relevant.

  18. Process-based project proposal risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Kumar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

  19. Air Quality Monitoring: Risk-Based Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.

    2009-01-01

    Air monitoring is secondary to rigid control of risks to air quality. Air quality monitoring requires us to target the credible residual risks. Constraints on monitoring devices are severe. Must transition from archival to real-time, on-board monitoring. Must provide data to crew in a way that they can interpret findings. Dust management and monitoring may be a major concern for exploration class missions.

  20. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  1. Outlier treatment for improving parameter estimation of group contribution based models for upper flammability limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Flammability data is needed to assess the risk of fire and explosions. This study presents a new group contribution (GC) model to predict the upper flammability limit UFL oforganic chemicals. Furthermore, it provides a systematic method for outlier treatment inorder to improve the parameter...

  2. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  3. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  4. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. Sarcopenic obesity: A probable risk factor for dose limiting toxicity during neo-adjuvant chemotherapy in oesophageal cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandavadivelan, Poorna; Brismar, Torkel B; Nilsson, Magnus; Johar, Asif M; Martin, Lena

    2016-06-01

    Profound weight loss and malnutrition subsequent to severe dysphagia and cancer cachexia are cardinal symptoms in oesophageal cancer (OC). Low muscle mass/sarcopenia has been linked to toxicity during neo-adjuvant therapy in other cancers, with worser effects in sarcopenic obesity. In this study the association between sarcopenia and/or sarcopenic obesity and dose limiting toxicity (DLT) during cycle one chemotherapy in resectable OC patients was evaluated. Body composition was assessed from computed tomography scans of 72 consecutively diagnosed OC patients. Lean body mass and body fat mass were estimated. Patients were grouped as sarcopenic or non-sarcopenic based on pre-defined gender-specific cut-offs for sarcopenia, and as underweight/normal (BMI sarcopenia combined with overweight and obesity. DLT was defined as temporary reduction/delay or permanent discontinuation of drugs due to adverse effects. Odds ratios for developing toxicity were ascertained using multiple logistic regression. Of 72 patients, 85% (n = 61) were males. Sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity were present in 31 (43%) and 10 (14%), respectively, prior to chemotherapy. Sarcopenic patients had significantly lower adipose tissue index (p = 0.02) compared to non-sarcopenic patients. Patients with DLT (n = 24) had lower skeletal muscle mass (p = 0.04) than those without DLT. Sarcopenic patients (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 0.88-6.93) showed a trend towards increased DLT risk (p < 0.10). Logistic regression with BMI as an interaction term indicated higher DLT risk in sarcopenic patients with normal BMI (OR = 1.60; 95% CI 0.30-8.40), but was non-significant. In the sarcopenic obese, risk of DLT increased significantly (OR = 5.54; 95% CI 1.12-27.44). Sarcopenic and sarcopenic obese OC patients may be at a higher risk for developing DLT during chemotherapy compared to non-sarcopenic OC patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All

  7. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  8. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  9. Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Objective: To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. Methods: The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to con...

  10. An Evidence Base for Human Spaceflight Risks in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundrot, Craig; Steil, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Pellis, Neal

    2013-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is focused on understanding and mitigating thirty two risks to crew health and performance in exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. The HRP has developed an evidence report for each of the risks. Most evidence reports are a brief review article describing the evidence related to a specified risk, written at a level appropriate for the scientifically educated, non-specialist reader. Each evidence report captured the current state of knowledge from both research and operations. Two limitations of the evidence reports have become apparent: 1) they are updated infrequently and 2) they do not take full advantage of the expertise available in other space agencies and in related fields of terrestrial research. Therefore, the HRP is experimenting with the use of Wikipedia articles as a repository for evidence. Wikipedia's accessibility to the international space flight community and researchers in related terrestrial fields creates the opportunity to generate a more timely and comprehensive evidence base. Initial Wikipedia articles were populated for seven risks using a subset of the information in the HRP-approved evidence reports: Fatigue and Sleep Loss, Treating An Ill or Injured Crew Member, Radiation Carcinogenesis, Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure, Renal Stone Formation, Team Cohesion, and Intervertebral Disc Damage. Since the initial articles were created, there have been additions to these Wikipedia articles, including content from sources outside the HRP, and editorial changes to the pages. We will report on the nature of the contributions made after the initial articles were created, the comprehensiveness of the resulting Wikipedia articles, and the effort required to maintain quality control of the content. The Wikipedia approach will also be compared to wiki efforts that exert more traditional editorial control of content prior to posting.

  11. Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

  12. Records management and risk management at Kenya Commercial Bank Limited, Nairobi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleophas Ambira

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper reported empirical research findings of an MPhil in Information Sciences (Records and Archives Management study conducted at Moi University in Eldoret, Kenya between September 2007 and July 2009.Objectives: The aim of the study was to investigate records management and risk management at Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB Ltd, in the Nairobi area and propose recommendations to enhance the functions of records and risk management at KCB. The specific objectives of the study were to, (1 establish the nature and type of risks to which KCB is exposed, (2 conduct business process analysis and identify the records generated by KCB, (3 establish the extent to which records management is emphasised within KCB as a tool to managing risk, (4 identify which vital records of KCB need protection because of their nature and value to the bank and (5 make recommendations to enhance current records management practices to support the function of risk management in KCB.Method: The study was qualitative. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews. The theoretical framework of the study involved triangulation of the records continuum model by Frank Upward (1980 and the integrated risk management model by the Government of Canada (2000.Results: The key findings of the study were, (1 KCB is exposed to a wide range of risks by virtue of its business, (2 KCB generates a lot of records in the course of its business activities and (3 there are inadequate records management practices and systems, the lack of which undermines the risk management function.Conclusion: The findings of this study have revealed the need to strengthen records management as a critical success factor in risk mitigation within KCB and, by extension, the Kenyan banking industry. A records management model was proposed to guide the management of records within an enterprise-wide risk management framework in the bank.

  13. Probabilistic safety and risk assessments in the field of nuclear technology - Mode of operation, possibilities and limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mertens, J.

    1993-01-01

    In this study probabilistic safety and risk assessments in the field of nuclear energy are explained. Mainly qualitative results and conclusions are presented. Explanations for often discussed aspects of such analysis reveal the procedure and reasonable limits of application. The mentioned literature contains detailed results. (orig./DG) [de

  14. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  15. Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

    2007-01-01

    Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

  16. HIV/AIDS Knowledge, Self-Efficacy for Limiting Sexual Risk Behavior and Parental Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahat, Ganga; Scoloveno, Mary Ann; Scoloveno, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore HIV/AIDS knowledge, self-efficacy for sexual risk behaviors, and parental monitoring in a sample of 140 7th and 9th grade adolescents studying in an urban high school in the United States. Further, the study examined differences in HIV/AIDS knowledge, self-efficacy and parental monitoring by grade and gender. This study also investigated the effectiveness of an HIV/AIDS peer education program, Teens for AIDS Prevention (TAP), on improving adolescents' HIV/AIDS knowledge. A quasi-experimental design was used to examine effects of the peer education program (TAP) on adolescents' HIV/AIDS knowledge. Pearson-product-moment correlation coefficients were calculated to examine the relationships among the variables. Independent t-tests were used to compare adolescents' HIV/AIDS knowledge, self-efficacy, and parental monitoring scores by grade and gender. Paired t-tests were used to determine differences in pre-intervention and post-intervention HIV/AIDS knowledge. The results showed that HIV/AIDS knowledge improved significantly in both 7th and 9th grade students after the intervention. HIV/AIDS knowledge was associated with self-efficacy; however it was not associated with parental monitoring. There were no significant differences in HIV/AIDS knowledge and self-efficacy by gender. However, there was a significant difference in parental monitoring by gender. Pediatric nurses are well-positioned to develop and implement evidence-based programs for adolescents. It is essential that pediatric nurses, in conjunction with other professionals and parent groups, take the initiative in implementing peer education programs in schools and community centers to promote healthy behaviors among adolescents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk model for suspected acute coronary syndrome is of limited value in an emergency department

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, Christian Backer; Christiansen, Maja; Jørgensen, Jess Bjerre

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Among patients with acute chest pain, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is seen only in a minority of the patients, which raises the question, whether it is possible to separate a group with a high risk of ACS for admission to a cardiac care unit (CCU) from those with a low risk who would...... be treated at an emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to describe a risk stratification model for a Danish context. METHODS: This was a historic prospective cohort study of patients with suspicion of ACS. The patient was defined as a low-risk patient and admitted to the ED if: 1....... RESULTS: We included a total of 488 patients with suspicion of ACS, 50% of whom were low-risk patients. 17% had a verified ACS; 10% of those in the low-risk group and 24% of those in the high-risk group (p = 0.0001). Among the verified ACS cases, 71% went primarily to the CCU. The odds ratio for an ACS...

  18. Pre-Sale of Flats as a Method to Limit Market Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Sitek, Marcin

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this study is on the analysis of the developer’s and purchaser’s risks that result from pre-sale of flats in the real estate market. This study attempts to analyze developer’s and purchaser’s risks that result from pre-sale of flats in the real estate market. The study discusses the results concerning the economic indices that stimulate behaviors of participants and analysis of the Developer’s Act in the aspect of benefits and risk for market participants. The p...

  19. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Xuyong; Chen, Qian; Bian, Xiaoya; Fan, Jianping

    2017-01-01

    Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic ...

  20. Risk analyses in nuclear engineerig, their value in terms of information, and their limits in terms of applicability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heuser, F.W.

    1983-01-01

    This contribution first briefly explains the main pillars of the deterministic safety concept as developed in nuclear engineering, and some basic ideas on risk analyses in general. This is followed by an outline of the methodology and main purposes of risk analyses. The German Risk Study is taken as an example to discuss selected aspects with regard to information value and limits of risk analyses. The main conclusions state that risk analyses are a valuable instrument for quantitative safety evaluation, leading to a better understanding of safety problems and their prevention, and allowing a comparative assessment of various safety measures. They furthermore allow a refined evaluation of a variety of accident parameters and other impacts determining the risk emanating from accidents. The current state of the art in this sector still leaves numerous uncertainties so that risk analyses yield information for assessments rather than for definite predictions. However, the urge for quantifying the lack of knowledge leads to a better and more precise determination of the gaps still to be filled up by researchers and engineers. Thus risk analyses are a useful help in defining suitable approaches and setting up standards, showing the tasks to be fulfilled in safety research in general. (orig./HSCH) [de

  1. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  2. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

    2015-01-01

    With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

  3. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  4. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  5. Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

  6. Internet-based screening for dementia risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jason; Sullivan, Campbell; Burrell, Larry E; Rogerson, Mark; Anderson, Allan

    2013-01-01

    The Dementia Risk Assessment (DRA) is an online tool consisting of questions about known risk factors for dementia, a novel verbal memory test, and an informant report of cognitive decline. Its primary goal is to educate the public about dementia risk factors and encourage clinical evaluation where appropriate. In Study 1, more than 3,000 anonymous persons over age 50 completed the DRA about themselves; 1,000 people also completed proxy reports about another person. Advanced age, lower education, male sex, complaints of severe memory impairment, and histories of cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, and brain tumor all contributed significantly to poor memory performance. A high correlation was obtained between proxy-reported decline and actual memory test performance. In Study 2, 52 persons seeking first-time evaluation at dementia clinics completed the DRA prior to their visits. Their responses (and those of their proxy informants) were compared to the results of independent evaluation by geriatric neuropsychiatrists. The 30 patients found to meet criteria for probable Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or frontotemporal dementia differed on the DRA from the 22 patients without dementia (most other neuropsychiatric conditions). Scoring below criterion on the DRA's memory test had moderately high predictive validity for clinically diagnosed dementia. Although additional studies of larger clinical samples are needed, the DRA holds promise for wide-scale screening for dementia risk.

  7. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  8. Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Chemical Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz Mumtaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-exposure risk assessment of chemical and environmental stressors is a public health challenge. Linking exposure to health outcomes is a 4-step process: exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose response assessment, and risk characterization. This process is increasingly adopting “in silico” tools such as physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models to fine-tune exposure assessments and determine internal doses in target organs/tissues. Many excellent PBPK models have been developed. But most, because of their scientific sophistication, have found limited field application—health assessors rarely use them. Over the years, government agencies, stakeholders/partners, and the scientific community have attempted to use these models or their underlying principles in combination with other practical procedures. During the past two decades, through cooperative agreements and contracts at several research and higher education institutions, ATSDR funded translational research has encouraged the use of various types of models. Such collaborative efforts have led to the development and use of transparent and user-friendly models. The “human PBPK model toolkit” is one such project. While not necessarily state of the art, this toolkit is sufficiently accurate for screening purposes. Highlighted in this paper are some selected examples of environmental and occupational exposure assessments of chemicals and their mixtures.

  9. Comparison of Thoracic Injury Risk in Frontal Car Crashes for Occupant Restrained without Belt Load Limiters and Those Restrained with 6 kN and 4 kN Belt Load Limiters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foret-Bruno, J Y; Trosseille, X; Page, Y; Huère, J F; Le Coz, J Y; Bendjellal, F; Diboine, A; Phalempin, T; Villeforceix, D; Baudrit, P; Guillemot, H; Coltat, J C

    2001-11-01

    , and 149 involved cars equipped with the 4 kN load limiter. Based on this accident data, the study compares the thoracic injury risk for two occupant populations: belted occupants involved in accidents in which the vehicle was not equipped with a load limiter (378 cases with pyrotechnic pretensioners), and belted occupants involved in accidents in which the vehicles were equipped with 4 or 6 kN load limiters and pyrotechnic pretensioners (347 cases). One observes that a 4 kN load limitation results in a very important reduction of thoracic injury risk for all AIS levels, compared to others samples. 50 to 60% reduction for AIS 2+ was observed, as well as 75 to 85% for AIS 3+. The complete absence of AIS 4+ with a 4 kN load limiter must be stressed, though it remains more than 8% for the other samples (no limiter and 6 kN limiter).

  10. Recognition of risk situations based on endoscopic instrument tracking and knowledge based situation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speidel, Stefanie; Sudra, Gunther; Senemaud, Julien; Drentschew, Maximilian; Müller-Stich, Beat Peter; Gutt, Carsten; Dillmann, Rüdiger

    2008-03-01

    Minimally invasive surgery has gained significantly in importance over the last decade due to the numerous advantages on patient-side. The surgeon has to adapt special operation-techniques and deal with difficulties like the complex hand-eye coordination, limited field of view and restricted mobility. To alleviate these constraints we propose to enhance the surgeon's capabilities by providing a context-aware assistance using augmented reality (AR) techniques. In order to generate a context-aware assistance it is necessary to recognize the current state of the intervention using intraoperatively gained sensor data and a model of the surgical intervention. In this paper we present the recognition of risk situations, the system warns the surgeon if an instrument gets too close to a risk structure. The context-aware assistance system starts with an image-based analysis to retrieve information from the endoscopic images. This information is classified and a semantic description is generated. The description is used to recognize the current state and launch an appropriate AR visualization. In detail we present an automatic vision-based instrument tracking to obtain the positions of the instruments. Situation recognition is performed using a knowledge representation based on a description logic system. Two augmented reality visualization programs are realized to warn the surgeon if a risk situation occurs.

  11. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Nicholas D; Marquart, Hans; Christopher, Yvette; Laitinen, Juha; VAN Hemmen, Joop J

    2006-07-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of new measurements of dermal exposure together with detailed contextual information. This article describes the development of a set of generic task-based models capable of predicting potential dermal exposure to both solids and liquids in a wide range of situations. To facilitate modelling of the wide variety of dermal exposure situations six separate models were made for groupings of exposure scenarios called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units). These task-based groupings cluster exposure scenarios with regard to the expected routes of dermal exposure and the expected influence of exposure determinants. Within these groupings linear mixed effect models were used to estimate the influence of various exposure determinants and to estimate components of variance. The models predict median potential dermal exposure rates for the hands and the rest of the body from the values of relevant exposure determinants. These rates are expressed as mg or microl product per minute. Using these median potential dermal exposure rates and an accompanying geometric standard deviation allows a range of exposure percentiles to be calculated.

  12. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  13. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hong

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  14. Finite element-based limit load of piping branch junctions under combined loadings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xuan Fuzhen; Li Peining

    2004-01-01

    The limit load is an important input parameter in engineering defect-assessment procedures and strength design. In the present work, a total of 100 different piping branch junction models for the limit load calculation were performed under combined internal pressure and moments in use of non-linear finite element (FE) method. Three different existing accumulation rules for limit load, i.e., linear equation, parabolic equation and quadratic equation were discussed on the basis of FE results. A novel limit load solution was developed based on detailed three-dimensional FE limit analyses which accommodated the geometrical parameter influence, together with analytical solutions based on equilibrium stress fields. Finally, six experimental results were provided to justify the presented equation. According to the FE limit analysis, limit load interaction of the piping tees under combined pressure and moments has a relationship with the geometrical parameters, especially with the diameter ratio d/D. The predicted limit loads from the presented formula are very close to the experimental data. The resulting limit load solution is given in a closed form, and thus can be easily used in practice

  15. Risk based technique for improving technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I. S.; Jae, M. S.; Kim, B. S.; Hwang, S. W.; Kang, K. M.; Park, S. S.; Yu, Y. S.

    2001-03-01

    The objective of this study is to develop the systematic guidance for reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. The work done in this fiscal year is the following : surveys in TS requirements, TS improvements and TS regulations in foreign countries as well as Korea, surveys on the state-of-the-art of RITSs and their use in Korea, development of a decision-making framework for both the licensee and the regulation agency, description of risk measures, assessment methodology on STI/AOT, and adverse effects caused by periodic maintenance, which are explained in appendix. The results of this study might contribute to enhancing the quality of the current technical specifications and contribute to preparing the risk informed regulation program using the decision-making framework developed in this study

  16. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

    1995-01-01

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

  17. Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

  18. Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porse, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

  19. Proposals to overcome limitations in the EU chemical risk assessment scheme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trapp, Stefan; Schwartz, S.

    2000-01-01

    The noti®cation of new chemicals in the European Union requires a risk assessment. A Technical Guidance Document (TGD) was prepared for assistance. The TGD proposes QSARs, regressions and models from various sources. Each method has its own range of applicability and its own restrictions. Regress......The noti®cation of new chemicals in the European Union requires a risk assessment. A Technical Guidance Document (TGD) was prepared for assistance. The TGD proposes QSARs, regressions and models from various sources. Each method has its own range of applicability and its own restrictions...

  20. Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arends, Pauline; Sonneveld, Milan J; Zoutendijk, Roeland; Carey, Ivana; Brown, Ashley; Fasano, Massimo; Mutimer, David; Deterding, Katja; Reijnders, Jurriën G P; Oo, Ye; Petersen, Jörg; van Bömmel, Florian; de Knegt, Robert J; Santantonio, Teresa; Berg, Thomas; Welzel, Tania M; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Buti, Maria; Pradat, Pierre; Zoulim, Fabien; Hansen, Bettina; Janssen, Harry L A

    2015-08-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population. We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network. A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82-212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (peliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. Elderly benzodiazepine users at increased risk of activity limitations: influence of chronicity, indications, and duration of action--the three-city cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrière, Isabelle; Mura, Thibault; Pérès, Karine; Norton, Joanna; Jaussent, Isabelle; Edjolo, Arlette; Rouaud, Olivier; Berr, Claudine; Ritchie, Karen; Ancelin, Marie Laure

    2015-08-01

    To examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between benzodiazepine use and daily activity limitations, according to drug indications and duration of action. Prospective cohort study. Population-based three-city study. 6,600 participants aged 65 years and over included between 1999 and 2001 and followed after 2, 4, and 7 years. Benzodiazepine users were separated into hypnotic, short-acting anxiolytic, and long-acting anxiolytic users and compared with non users. Three outcomes were examined assessing restrictions in mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and social participation. In multivariate simple or mixed logistic models adjusted for sociodemographic variables, impairments and comorbidity, and for anxiety, insomnia, and depression, hypnotic benzodiazepines were moderately associated with mobility limitation prevalence and IADL limitation incidence. Short-acting and long-acting anxiolytics were associated with IADL limitation prevalence and with mobility limitation prevalence and incidence and long-acting anxiolytics were also associated with IADL limitation incidence. Chronic benzodiazepines users were at a marked risk of developing restrictions for the three outcomes; odds ratio: 1.71 (95% CI: 1.23-2.39) for mobility, 1.54 (95% CI: 1.14-2.10) for IADL, and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.23-2.47) for participation limitations. Benzodiazepine users are at increased risk of activity limitations regardless of the duration of action or indication. Chronic use of benzodiazepines should be avoided in order to extend disability-free survival. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

  3. Heat transfer calculations for the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Technical specifications: bases for safety limits and limiting safety system settings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sims, T.M.; Swanks, J.H.

    1977-09-01

    Heat transfer analyses, in support of the preparation of the HFIR technical specifications, were made to establish the bases for the safety limits and limiting safety system settings applicable to the HFIR. The results of these analyses, along with the detailed bases, are presented

  4. Weather based risks and insurances for crop production in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as late frosts, droughts, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The risk of soil moisture deficit increases towards harvesting, such that drought stress occurs in spring and summer. Conversely, waterlogging occurs mostly during early spring and autumn. Risks of temperature stress appear during winter and spring for chilling and during summer for heat. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, the regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims for different crops. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage as demonstrated for cropping systems in Belgium. Extreme weather events have already precipitated contraction of insurance coverage in some markets (e.g. hail insurance), and the process can be expected to continue if the losses or damages from such events increase in the future. Climate

  5. Financial fragility, sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Kwaak, C.G.F.; van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    2014-01-01

    We show that with intertwined weak banks and weak sovereigns, bank recapitalizations become much less effective. We construct a DSGE model with leverage constrained banks lending to firms and holding domestic government bonds. Bond prices reflect endogenously generated sovereign risk. This

  6. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  7. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  9. Functional limitations as potential mediators of the effects of self-reported vision status on fall risk of older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Bernard A; Allen, Susan M; Chen, Jie; Pynoos, Jon

    2015-02-01

    To test whether limitations in mobility and large-muscle functioning mediate self-reported vision status to increase fall risk among respondents age 65 and above. This study used two waves from the Health and Retirement Study. We conducted binary logistic and negative binomial regression analyses to test indirect paths leading from self-reported vision status to falls, via indices of mobility and large-muscle functioning. Limited evidence was found for a mediating effect among women; however, large-muscle groups were implicated as partially mediating risk factors for falls among men with fair self-reported vision status. Implications of these findings are discussed including the need for prioritizing improved muscle strength of older men and women with poor vision as a preventive measure against falls. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Type and intensity of activity and risk of mobility limitation: the mediating role of muscle parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, M.; Simonsick, E.M.; Colbert, L.H.; Brach, J.S.; Rubin, S.M.; Kritchevsky, S.B.; Newman, A.B.; Harris, T.B.

    2005-01-01

    2,719 kcal/wk of total physical activity). The study outcome, incident mobility limitation, was defined as two consecutive, semiannual self-reports of any difficulty walking one quarter of a mile or climbing 10 steps. Thigh muscle area, thigh muscle attenuation (a marker of fat infiltration in

  11. Winter photosynthesis in red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.): limitations, potential benefits, and risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.G. Schaberg

    2000-01-01

    Numerous cold-induced changes in physiology limit the capacity of northern conifers to photosynthesize during winter. Studies of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) have shown that rates of field photosynthesis (Pfield) and laboratory measurements of photosynthetic capacity (Pmax) generally parallel seasonal...

  12. Type and intensity of activity and risk of mobility limitation : the mediating role of muscle parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, M.; Simonsick, E.M.; Rubin, S; Newman, A.B.; Kritchevsky, S.B.; Harris, T.B.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between different types of physical activity behavior and incident mobility limitation in older men and women and to examine whether muscle parameters mediate these associations. DESIGN: Cohort study with 4.5-year follow-up. SETTING: Metropolitan areas

  13. Non-atopic males with adult onset asthma are at risk of persistent airflow limitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelink, M.; de Nijs, S. B.; Berger, M.; Weersink, E. J.; ten Brinke, A.; Sterk, P. J.; Bel, E. H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Patients with asthma have on average a more rapid decline in FEV1 as compared with the general population. Recent cluster analysis has revealed different asthma phenotypes that can be distinguished by age of onset and reversibility of airflow limitation. Objective This study aimed at

  14. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  15. Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

    CERN Document Server

    Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

    2012-01-01

    This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

  16. Exploring Issues Limiting the Use of Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Norton

    2015-10-01

    A final conclusion is that no matter how useful, knowledge itself is not a panacea for DRR. Decision-making is invariably influenced by conflicting priorities, objectives and constraints, and not necessarily in all stakeholders’ interests or even reflecting their objectives. For example in the midst of the Greek economic crisis, disaster risk awareness and acceptability are becoming less a matter of DRR information and knowledge and must rather be addressed with a view to the new hierarchy of risks (socio-economic, health, emerging generated by the crisis. However, acknowledging the complexity of the issue should not stand in the way of much needed efforts towards enabling knowledge for DRR with all the tools available in today’s changing world.

  17. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  18. Issues raised in the limitation, control and measurement of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Over the past few years a consistent set of quantities for ionising radiation measurements in radiological protection have been defined. The efforts being made by those concerned with radiation dosimetry to ensure the universal adoption and use of these quantities are now threatened by further developments in risk concepts. The most serious threats arise from changed perceptions about the quality factors appropriate for different radiations due to improved biological information about relative biological effectiveness, and the increased importance to be given to the cancer risk estimates derived from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors following the revised dose estimates. A change in the basis of quality factor specification will require careful consideration if it is not to produce further problems in obtaining agreement on the conceptual basis for radiological protection metrology. The change is primarily for adoption in the calculation of the risk quantity, effective dose equivalent. Some of the possible options for taking account of the change in regard to the measurement quantities are examined. (author)

  19. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2017-06-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  20. Risk Based Maintenance in Electricity Network Organisations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mehairjan, R.P.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Presently, maintenance management of assets in infrastructure utilities such as electricity, gas and water are widely undergoing changes towards new working environments. These are mainly driven against the background of stringent regulatory regimes, an ageing asset base, increased customer demands

  1. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  3. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  4. An Energy-Based Limit State Function for Estimation of Structural Reliability in Shock Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Guthrie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available limit state function is developed for the estimation of structural reliability in shock environments. This limit state function uses peak modal strain energies to characterize environmental severity and modal strain energies at failure to characterize the structural capacity. The Hasofer-Lind reliability index is briefly reviewed and its computation for the energy-based limit state function is discussed. Applications to two degree of freedom mass-spring systems and to a simple finite element model are considered. For these examples, computation of the reliability index requires little effort beyond a modal analysis, but still accounts for relevant uncertainties in both the structure and environment. For both examples, the reliability index is observed to agree well with the results of Monte Carlo analysis. In situations where fast, qualitative comparison of several candidate designs is required, the reliability index based on the proposed limit state function provides an attractive metric which can be used to compare and control reliability.

  5. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  6. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thadani, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

  7. Risk factors of treatment default and death among tuberculosis patients in a resource-limited setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alobu, Isaac; Oshi, Sarah N; Oshi, Daniel C; Ukwaja, Kingsley N

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate the rates, timing and determinants of default and death among adult tuberculosis patients in Nigeria. Routine surveillance data were used. A retrospective cohort study of adult tuberculosis patients treated during 2011 and 2012 in two large health facilities in Ebonyi State, Nigeria was conducted. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors for treatment default and death. Of 1 668 treated patients, the default rate was 157 (9.4%), whilst 165 (9.9%) died. Also, 35.7% (56) of the treatment defaults and 151 (91.5%) of deaths occurred during the intensive phase of treatment. Risk of default increased with increasing age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.9), smear-negative TB case (aOR 2.3; CI 1.5-3.6), extrapulmonary TB case (aOR 2.7; CI 1.3-5.2), and patients who received the longer treatment regimen (aOR 1.6; 1.1-2.2). Risk of death was highest in extrapulmonary TB (aOR 3.0; CI 1.4-6.1) and smear-negative TB cases (aOR 2.4; CI 1.7-3.5), rural residents (aOR 1.7; CI 1.2-2.6), HIV co-infected (aOR 2.5; CI 1.7-3.6), not receiving antiretroviral therapy (aOR 1.6; CI 1.1-2.9), and not receiving cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (aOR 1.7; CI 1.2-2.6). Targeted interventions to improve treatment adherence for patients with the highest risk of default or death are urgently needed. This needs to be urgently addressed by the National Tuberculosis Programme. Copyright © 2014 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Reconstruction for limited-projection fluorescence molecular tomography based on projected restarted conjugate gradient normal residual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xu; Zhang, Bin; Liu, Fei; Wang, Xin; Bai, Jing

    2011-12-01

    Limited-projection fluorescence molecular tomography (FMT) can greatly reduce the acquisition time, which is suitable for resolving fast biology processes in vivo but suffers from severe ill-posedness because of the reconstruction using only limited projections. To overcome the severe ill-posedness, we report a reconstruction method based on the projected restarted conjugate gradient normal residual. The reconstruction results of two phantom experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is feasible for limited-projection FMT. © 2011 Optical Society of America

  9. The limitations and risks of transarterial Onyx injections in the treatment of grade I and II DAVFs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv Xianli; Jiang Chuhan; Li Youxiang; Liu Lian; Liu Jie; Wu Zhongxue

    2011-01-01

    Background and objective: Embolization of grade III–V intracranial DAVFs using Onyx is feasible with promising results, indicating stability at the time of mid-term follow-up. This article is to evaluate the role of transarterial Onyx embolization in the treatment of grade I and II intracranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs), including its limitations and risks. Methods: We retrospectively studied consecutive 26 patients (8 women and 18 men) treated for an grade I and II intracranial DAVF since 2006 in whom a transarterial approach was attempted with Onyx-18 embolization. There were 18 transverse-sigmoid sinus, 4 cavernous sinus, 2 superior sagittal sinus, 1 inferior petrosal sinus and 1 intradiploic fistulas. Five fistulas were Type I, 8 were Type IIa, and 13 were Type IIa + b, according to the Cognard classification. The mean clinical follow-up period was 15.6 months. Results: Anatomic cure was proven in 13 patients (50%) and clinical cure was obtained in 17 cases (65.4%). These 13 cures were achieved after a single procedure. All these 13 patients underwent a follow-up angiography, which has confirmed the complete cure. Partial occlusion was obtained in 13 patients. Complications were as follows: 2 cardiac Onyx migration, 2 reflexive bradyarrythmia, 1 transient visual hallucination, 2 transient fifth nerve palsies and 1 permanent seventh nerve palsy in inferior petrosal sinus DAVF. Conclusions: Based on this experience, grade I and II intracranial DAVFs may be treated with transarterial Onyx embolization to reduce the shunted blood flow and to facilitate subsequent transvenous embolization or surgery.

  10. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  11. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  12. Event-based historical value-at-risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

    2012-01-01

    Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

  13. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  14. Derived limits for radiological protection against ionizing radiation based on ICRP-60 recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Si Young; Lee, Byung Soo

    2000-01-01

    In Korea the dose limits are reduced and are set at the ICRP-60 limits. However, derived limits tabulated as MPC in air and water are sill specified in Notice Nol 98-12. There are some discrepancies between the primary dose limits and MPCs in air and water. Therefore, in order to accept ICRP-60 recommendations fully, derived limits such as ALI, DAC, ECL for radiological protection against ionizing radiation based on ICRP-60 recommendations were calculated using modified methods of those of 10 CFR part 20, dose limits and committed effective dose coefficients of the Basic Safety Standards of the IAEA. The derived limits in this study were also compared with those prescribed in 10 CFR part 20 as well as MPCs of Notice No.98-12 in order to analyze the impact of implementing derived limits on nuclear facilities. ECLs in air and water for the control of radioactive discharge into the environment in this study are shown to have lower values (i.e. more conservative), for most part, than those in Notice No. 98-12. Especially, for uranium elements, ECLs in water are approximately a magnitude in the order of two lower than those in Notice No. 98-12. (author)

  15. Limitations of the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach for risk assessment of halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safe, S. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Veterinary Physiology and Pharmacology

    1995-12-31

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (HAHs) are present as complex mixtures of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and biphenyls (PCBs) in most environmental matrices. Risk management of these mixtures utilize the toxic equivalency factor (TEF) approach in which the TCDD (dioxin) or toxic equivalents of a mixture is a summation of the congener concentration (Ci) times TEF{sub i} (potency relative to TCDD) where. TEQ{sub mixture} = {Sigma}[Cil] {times} TEF{sub i}. TEQs are determined only for those HAHs which are aryl hydrocarbon (Ah) receptor agonists and this approach assumes that the toxic or biochemical effects of individual compounds in a mixture are additive. Several in vivo and in vitro laboratory and field studies with different HAH mixtures have been utilized to validate the TEF approach. For some responses, the calculated toxicities of PCDD/PCDF and PCB mixtures predict the observed toxic potencies. However, for fetal cleft palate and immunotoxicity in mice, nonadditive (antagonistic) responses are observed using complex PCB mixtures or binary mixtures containing an Ah receptor agonist with 2,2{prime},4,4{prime},5,5{prime}-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB153). The potential interactive effects of PCBs and other dietary Ah receptor antagonist suggest that the TEF approach for risk management of HAHs requires further refinement and should be used selectively.

  16. Preclinical Torsades-de-Pointes screens: advantages and limitations of surrogate and direct approaches in evaluating proarrhythmic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gintant, Gary A

    2008-08-01

    The successful development of novel drugs requires the ability to detect (and avoid) compounds that may provoke Torsades-de-Pointes (TdeP) arrhythmia while endorsing those compounds with minimal torsadogenic risk. As TdeP is a rare arrhythmia not readily observed during clinical or post-marketing studies, numerous preclinical models are employed to assess delayed or altered ventricular repolarization (surrogate markers linked to enhanced proarrhythmic risk). This review evaluates the advantages and limitations of selected preclinical models (ranging from the simplest cellular hERG current assay to the more complex in vitro perfused ventricular wedge and Langendorff heart preparations and in vivo chronic atrio-ventricular (AV)-node block model). Specific attention is paid to the utility of concentration-response relationships and "risk signatures" derived from these studies, with the intention of moving beyond predicting clinical QT prolongation and towards prediction of TdeP risk. While the more complex proarrhythmia models may be suited to addressing questionable or conflicting proarrhythmic signals obtained with simpler preclinical assays, further benchmarking of proarrhythmia models is required for their use in the robust evaluation of safety margins. In the future, these models may be able to reduce unwarranted attrition of evolving compounds while becoming pivotal in the balanced integrated risk assessment of advancing compounds.

  17. Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Septiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

  18. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  19. Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk Management Approach ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Correlation methods were adopted for statistical ...

  20. Bayesian risk-based acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Abramson, L.R.; Johnson, J.W.

    1996-04-01

    Mechanistic (or deterministic) analysis is traditionally performed in the process of designing a new nuclear reactor or reactor core and also as part of the safety analysis of existing reactors or reload cores. Mechanistic accident analysis is characterized by the specification of an initial operating condition, an initiating event, and subsequent system faults. These subsequent faults are often chosen, through such mechanisms as the worst single failure criterion, so as to maximize the consequences of the accident. Thus, the behavior of all reactor system hardware is prescribed before this analysis begins. Mechanistic analysis then attempts to predict the dynamic response of the system and usually involves detailed reactor physics and thermal-hydraulic predictions of the system behavior, including such parameters as power distributions in the reactor core, coolant temperatures and flow rates, and fuel clad temperature distributions. The objective of this analysis has typically been to establish and verify reactor operating limits and technical specifications, so that severe core damage (SCD) is prevented for a wide variety of reactor accidents

  1. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  2. Limits to the use of environmental indices to reduce risk and/or ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental indices that provide short-term predictions of recruitment have the ... Simulations, based on a 'management procedure' (sensu the International ... to be in the top or bottom third of the distribution of possible recruitment values.

  3. Limits on Large Extra Dimensions Based on Observations of Neutron Stars with the Fermi-LAT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajello, M.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Baldini, L.; /INFN, Pisa; Barbiellini, G.; /INFN, Trieste /Trieste U.; Bastieri, D.; /INFN, Padua /Padua U.; Bechtol, K.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Bellazzini, R.; /INFN, Pisa; Berenji, B.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Bloom, E.D.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Bonamente, E.; /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U.; Borgland, A.W.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Bregeon, J.; /INFN, Pisa; Brigida, M.; /Bari Polytechnic /INFN, Bari; Bruel, P.; /Ecole Polytechnique; Buehler, R.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Buson, S.; /INFN, Padua /Padua U.; Caliandro, G.A.; /CSIC, Catalunya; Cameron, R.A.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Caraveo, P.A.; /Brera Observ.; Casandjian, J.M.; /AIM, Saclay; Cecchi, C.; /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U.; Charles, E.; /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /Naval Research Lab, Wash., D.C. /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /ASDC, Frascati /Perugia U. /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /Montpellier U. /Stockholm U. /Stockholm U., OKC /Royal Swedish Acad. Sci. /ASDC, Frascati /Udine U. /INFN, Trieste /Bari Polytechnic /INFN, Bari /Naval Research Lab, Wash., D.C. /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /Bari Polytechnic /INFN, Bari /Ecole Polytechnique /NASA, Goddard /Hiroshima U. /Bari Polytechnic /INFN, Bari /INFN, Bari /ASDC, Frascati /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U. /Bari Polytechnic /INFN, Bari /Bari Polytechnic /INFN, Bari /Bologna Observ. /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC /KIPAC, Menlo Park /AIM, Saclay /Alabama U., Huntsville /INFN, Padua; /more authors..

    2012-08-17

    We present limits for the compactification scale in the theory of Large Extra Dimensions (LED) proposed by Arkani-Hamed, Dimopoulos, and Dvali. We use 11 months of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) to set gamma ray flux limits for 6 gamma-ray faint neutron stars (NS). To set limits on LED we use the model of Hannestad and Raffelt (HR) that calculates the Kaluza-Klein (KK) graviton production in supernova cores and the large fraction subsequently gravitationally bound around the resulting NS. The predicted decay of the bound KK gravitons to {gamma}{gamma} should contribute to the flux from NSs. Considering 2 to 7 extra dimensions of the same size in the context of the HR model, we use Monte Carlo techniques to calculate the expected differential flux of gamma-rays arising from these KK gravitons, including the effects of the age of the NS, graviton orbit, and absorption of gamma-rays in the magnetosphere of the NS. We compare our Monte Carlo-based differential flux to the experimental differential flux using maximum likelihood techniques to obtain our limits on LED. Our limits are more restrictive than past EGRET-based optimistic limits that do not include these important corrections. Additionally, our limits are more stringent than LHC based limits for 3 or fewer LED, and comparable for 4 LED. We conclude that if the effective Planck scale is around a TeV, then for 2 or 3 LED the compactification topology must be more complicated than a torus.

  4. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  5. Proposed Robust Entanglement-Based Magnetic Field Sensor Beyond the Standard Quantum Limit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Tohru; Knott, Paul; Matsuzaki, Yuichiro; Dooley, Shane; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Munro, William J; Saito, Shiro

    2015-10-23

    Recently, there have been significant developments in entanglement-based quantum metrology. However, entanglement is fragile against experimental imperfections, and quantum sensing to beat the standard quantum limit in scaling has not yet been achieved in realistic systems. Here, we show that it is possible to overcome such restrictions so that one can sense a magnetic field with an accuracy beyond the standard quantum limit even under the effect of decoherence, by using a realistic entangled state that can be easily created even with current technology. Our scheme could pave the way for the realizations of practical entanglement-based magnetic field sensors.

  6. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  8. Habitat selection and risk of predation: re-colonization by lynx had limited impact on habitat selection by roe deer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustaf Samelius

    Full Text Available Risk of predation is an evolutionary force that affects behaviors of virtually all animals. In this study, we examined how habitat selection by roe deer was affected by risk of predation by Eurasian lynx - the main predator of roe deer in Scandinavia. Specifically, we compared how habitat selection by roe deer varied (1 before and after lynx re-established in the study area and (2 in relation to habitat-specific risk of predation by lynx. All analyses were conducted at the spatial and temporal scales of home ranges and seasons. We did not find any evidence that roe deer avoided habitats in which the risk of predation by lynx was greatest and information-theoretic model selection showed that re-colonization by lynx had limited impact on habitat selection by roe deer despite lynx predation causing 65% of known mortalities after lynx re-colonized the area. Instead we found that habitat selection decreased when habitat availability increased for 2 of 5 habitat types (a pattern referred to as functional response in habitat selection. Limited impact of re-colonization by lynx on habitat selection by roe deer in this study differs from elk in North America altering both daily and seasonal patterns in habitat selection at the spatial scales of habitat patches and home ranges when wolves were reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park. Our study thus provides further evidence of the complexity by which animals respond to risk of predation and suggest that it may vary between ecosystems and predator-prey constellations.

  9. Habitat selection and risk of predation: re-colonization by lynx had limited impact on habitat selection by roe deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samelius, Gustaf; Andrén, Henrik; Kjellander, Petter; Liberg, Olof

    2013-01-01

    Risk of predation is an evolutionary force that affects behaviors of virtually all animals. In this study, we examined how habitat selection by roe deer was affected by risk of predation by Eurasian lynx - the main predator of roe deer in Scandinavia. Specifically, we compared how habitat selection by roe deer varied (1) before and after lynx re-established in the study area and (2) in relation to habitat-specific risk of predation by lynx. All analyses were conducted at the spatial and temporal scales of home ranges and seasons. We did not find any evidence that roe deer avoided habitats in which the risk of predation by lynx was greatest and information-theoretic model selection showed that re-colonization by lynx had limited impact on habitat selection by roe deer despite lynx predation causing 65% of known mortalities after lynx re-colonized the area. Instead we found that habitat selection decreased when habitat availability increased for 2 of 5 habitat types (a pattern referred to as functional response in habitat selection). Limited impact of re-colonization by lynx on habitat selection by roe deer in this study differs from elk in North America altering both daily and seasonal patterns in habitat selection at the spatial scales of habitat patches and home ranges when wolves were reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park. Our study thus provides further evidence of the complexity by which animals respond to risk of predation and suggest that it may vary between ecosystems and predator-prey constellations.

  10. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.C.; Journe, V.

    1992-01-01

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH 4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  11. Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

  12. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  13. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  14. Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

  15. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  16. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  17. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  18. Research-based design & design-based research: Affordances, limitations and synergies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McKenney, Susan

    2015-01-01

    Research-based design is an orientation to educational development that is explicitly informed by existing research as well as formative evaluation. Design-based research is a genre of inquiry in which the design of innovative solutions to problems in educational practice provides the context for

  19. Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms based on a novel probabilistic rupture risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polzer, Stanislav; Gasser, T Christian

    2015-12-06

    A rupture risk assessment is critical to the clinical treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients. The biomechanical AAA rupture risk assessment quantitatively integrates many known AAA rupture risk factors but the variability of risk predictions due to model input uncertainties remains a challenging limitation. This study derives a probabilistic rupture risk index (PRRI). Specifically, the uncertainties in AAA wall thickness and wall strength were considered, and wall stress was predicted with a state-of-the-art deterministic biomechanical model. The discriminative power of PRRI was tested in a diameter-matched cohort of ruptured (n = 7) and intact (n = 7) AAAs and compared to alternative risk assessment methods. Computed PRRI at 1.5 mean arterial pressure was significantly (p = 0.041) higher in ruptured AAAs (20.21(s.d. 14.15%)) than in intact AAAs (3.71(s.d. 5.77)%). PRRI showed a high sensitivity and specificity (discriminative power of 0.837) to discriminate between ruptured and intact AAA cases. The underlying statistical representation of stochastic data of wall thickness, wall strength and peak wall stress had only negligible effects on PRRI computations. Uncertainties in AAA wall stress predictions, the wide range of reported wall strength and the stochastic nature of failure motivate a probabilistic rupture risk assessment. Advanced AAA biomechanical modelling paired with a probabilistic rupture index definition as known from engineering risk assessment seems to be superior to a purely deterministic approach. © 2015 The Author(s).

  20. Annual limits on intake of radionuclides by workers based on the 1990 recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The Commission's new radiation protection recommendations (ICRP, 1991) were developed to take into account new biological information related to the detriment associated with radiation exposures and supersede earlier recommendations in Publication 26 (ICRP, 1977). Adoption of the recommendations necessitates a revision in the Commission's secondary limits contained in Publication 30, Parts 1-4 (ICRP, 1979a, 1980, 1981b, 1988). In order to permit immediate application of these new recommendations, new values of the Annual Limits on Intake (ALIs) which incorporate the new dose limits, radiation weighting factors, and tissue weighting factors and the metabolic and biokinetic information from Publication 30 have been calculated. Presented here are secondary limits for the 1990 Recommendations based on the dosimetric data assembled during the preparation of Publication 30. (author)

  1. Limitations and possibilities of animal models for human allergenic risk evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Kroghsbo, Stine; Bøgh, Katrine Lindholm

    2012-01-01

    evaluation. One of the pitfalls may be the premise that an animal model needs to mimic the disease. Chemical contact sensitizers may be predicted in an animal test, the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA). This assay is based on detailed mechanistic knowledge of contact sensitization including knowledge on dose...

  2. Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

    2015-06-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

  3. Human Health Risk from Metals in Fish from Saudi Arabia: Consumption Patterns for Some Species Exceed Allowable Limits

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Joanna

    2014-10-06

    ABSTRACT: Fish are a healthful source of protein, but contaminants in some fish pose a risk. While there are multiple risk assessments from Europe and North America, there are far fewer for other parts of the world. We examined the risks from mercury, arsenic, lead, and other metals in fish consumed by people in Jeddah area, Saudi Arabia, using site-specific data on consumption patterns and metal levels in fish. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency\\'s Hazard Quotient (HQ) and cumulative Hazard Index (HI) for non-cancer endpoints and Carcinogenic Index for cancer were used to determine the health risk based on fish consumption rates. Of the 13 fish species examined, HQ was greater than 1 (indicating elevated risk) in two species for arsenic, and seven species for methylmercury. The cumulative HI for all metals was above 1 for all but three species of fish at the mean consumption rates. Generally, fish species with HI above 1 for one sampling location, had HI above 1 for all sampling locations. The implications of these findings are discussed in the light of strategies for reducing risk from fish consumption while encouraging dietary intakes of fish with low mercury and arsenic levels.

  4. Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

    1991-08-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Limitation of radioactive discharges from NPP based on radionuclide specific monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucina, I.; Malatova, I.; Vidlakova, J.

    1998-01-01

    Monitoring of gaseous and liquid discharges from nuclear power plants based on particulate-iodine-gas measurements and gross beta or gamma plus tritium measurements is being improved by performing radionuclide specific measurements using semiconductor gamma and beta spectrometers and radiochemical methods. A new concept of regulatory effluent limits is being developed. The activities of all the relevant radionuclides discharged during a years, multiplied by the appropriate Sv/Bq conversion coefficient based on a standard multi-pathway model, are summed up, and the effective dose is compared with the new limit. Such limits should be laid down as the per capita collective commitment effective dose in the plant surroundings for atmospheric discharges, and as the committed effective dose to a critical group member for the hydrospheric releases

  6. Relationship between limited joint mobility of the hand and diabetic foot risk in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mineoka, Yusuke; Ishii, Michiyo; Tsuji, Akiko; Komatsu, Yoriko; Katayama, Yuko; Yamauchi, Mitsuko; Yamashita, Aki; Hashimoto, Yoshitaka; Nakamura, Naoto; Katsumi, Yasukazu; Isono, Motohide; Fukui, Michiaki

    2017-06-01

    Foot ulceration is a serious problem for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and the early detection of risks for this condition is important to prevent complications. The present cross-sectional study in T2D patients determined the relationship between limited joint mobility (LJM) of the hand and diabetic foot risk classified using the criteria of the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF). Relationships between LJM of the hand and foot risk according to IWGDF category, HbA1c, age, body mass index, blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR), and diabetic complications (including diabetic peripheral neuropathy [DPN] and peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) were evaluated in 528 consecutive T2D patients. Poor glycemic control was defined as HbA1c ≥ 7%. Patients with LJM of the hand were older and had a longer duration of diabetes, a higher prevalence of diabetic complications, including DPN and PAD, and a higher IWDGF category (all P foot risk assessed with IWDGF category was correlated with age (odds ratio [OR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.06; P = 0.001), poor glycemic control (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.00-2.77; P = 0.04), eGFR (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.97-0.99; P = 0.02), and the presence of LJM of the hand (OR 3.86; 95% CI 2.21-6.86; P foot risk. Diagnosis of diabetic hand is simple and non-invasive, and is thus a useful method for assessing the risk of diabetic foot in T2D patients. © 2016 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  7. 12 CFR 614.4351 - Computation of lending and leasing limit base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... adjustments: (1) Where one institution invests in another institution in connection with the sale of a loan... the purchasing institution. (2) Stock protected under section 4.9A of the Act may be included in the lending and leasing limit base until January 1, 1998. (3) Any amounts of preferred stock not eligible to...

  8. Feeling is Believing: a location limited channel based on grip pattern biometrics and cryptanalysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buhan, I.R.; Doumen, J.M.; Hartel, Pieter H.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    We use grip pattern based biometrics as a location limited channel to achieve pre-authentication in a protocol that sets up a secure cannel between two handheld devices. The protocol efficiently calculates a shared secret key from biometric data using quantization and cryptanalysis. The protocol is

  9. Recommendations regarding higher axlemass limits for axles fitted with wide base tyres

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Roux, MP

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of an investigation into possible higher axle mass limits for axles and axle units fitted with wide base tyres, i.e. tyres with nominal section widths of 385 mm, 425 mm and 445 mm, by comparing the road wear caused...

  10. Patient clusters in acute, work-related back pain based on patterns of disability risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, William S; Pransky, Glenn; Patterson, William; Linton, Steven J; Winters, Thomas

    2007-02-01

    To identify subgroups of patients with work-related back pain based on disability risk factors. Patients with work-related back pain (N = 528) completed a 16-item questionnaire of potential disability risk factors before their initial medical evaluation. Outcomes of pain, functional limitation, and work disability were assessed 1 and 3 months later. A K-Means cluster analysis of 5 disability risk factors (pain, depressed mood, fear avoidant beliefs, work inflexibility, and poor expectations for recovery) resulted in 4 sub-groups: low risk (n = 182); emotional distress (n = 103); severe pain/fear avoidant (n = 102); and concerns about job accommodation (n = 141). Pain and disability outcomes at follow-up were superior in the low-risk group and poorest in the severe pain/fear avoidant group. Patients with acute back pain can be discriminated into subgroups depending on whether disability is related to pain beliefs, emotional distress, or workplace concerns.

  11. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  12. Unlocking the talus by eversion limits medial ankle injury risk during external rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Button, Keith D; Wei, Feng; Haut, Roger C

    2015-10-15

    Eversion prior to excessive external foot rotation has been shown to predispose the anterior tibiofibular ligament (ATiFL) to failure, yet protect the anterior deltoid ligament (ADL) from failure despite high levels of foot rotation. The purpose of the current study was to measure the rotations of both the subtalar and talocrural joints during foot external rotation at sub-failure levels in either a neutral or a pre-everted position as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms of injury in previous studies. Fourteen (seven pairs) cadaver lower extremities were externally rotated 20° in either a pre-everted or neutral configuration, without producing injury. Motion capture was performed to track the tibia, talus, and calcaneus motions, and a joint coordinate system was used to analyze motions of the two joints. While talocrural joint rotation was greater in the neutral ankle (13.3±2.0° versus 10.5±2.7°, p=0.006), subtalar joint rotation was greater in the pre-everted ankle (2.4±1.9° versus 1.1±1.0°, p=0.014). Overall, the talocrural joint rotated more than the subtalar joint (11.9±2.8° versus 1.8±1.6°, p<0.001). It was proposed that the calcaneus and talus 'lock' in a neutral position, but 'unlock' when the ankle is everted prior to rotation. This locking/unlocking mechanism could be responsible for an increased subtalar rotation, but decreased talocrural rotation when the ankle is pre-everted, protecting the ADL from failure. This study may provide information valuable to the study of external rotation kinematics and injury risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Tinnitus and other auditory problems - occupational noise exposure below risk limits may cause inner ear dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindblad, Ann-Cathrine; Rosenhall, Ulf; Olofsson, Åke; Hagerman, Björn

    2014-01-01

    below risk levels, had dysfunctions almost identical to those of the more exposed Industry group.

  14. Tinnitus and other auditory problems - occupational noise exposure below risk limits may cause inner ear dysfunction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann-Cathrine Lindblad

    exposed to noise below risk levels, had dysfunctions almost identical to those of the more exposed Industry group.

  15. Gaps, limitations and new insights on endogenous estrogen and follicle stimulating hormone as related to risk of cardiovascular disease in women traversing the menopause: A narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Khoudary, Samar R

    2017-10-01

    While it is known that estrogen protects heart health in women prior to menopause, its role after menopause and during the menopause transition is far less apparent. Previous reviews summarizing the literature on the impact of endogenous estrogen on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have focused on postmenopausal women and have not come to a clear conclusion. No previous review has summarized the associations between follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), a proxy measure of the menopause transition, and CVD risk. The main purpose of this narrative review is to highlight gaps and limitations in the literature on endogenous estrogen and FSH as related to CVD risk. Future directions are addressed in light of recent findings in the field. When studying the relationship of estrogen to cardiovascular risk, it is critical to separate endogenously produced estrogen from exogenously administered estrogen. Moreover, other reproductive hormones such as FSH should be assessed, since growing evidence suggests a potential contribution of this hormone. Evaluation of estrogen changes over time allows a separation of women based on their hormone trajectories. These individual trajectories correlate with subclinical CVD and thus indicate that it is much more important to observe a woman over time rather than ascribe risk to a single determination at a single time point. As women progress through menopause and the ovary stops producing estradiol, the nature of the relationship between estrogens and subclinical CVD markers also appears to undergo a switch. Studies are needed to examine the midlife course of endogenous estradiol, FSH and CVD risk. These studies should also consider other hormones, including androgens, with an eye towards helping women modify their cardiovascular risk in midlife, when prevention is most likely possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A qualitative analysis of peer recruitment pressures in respondent driven sampling: Are risks above the ethical limit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, Heather I; Moorthi, Gayatri; Li, JiangHong; Weeks, Margaret R

    2015-09-01

    This paper examines peer recruitment dynamics through respondent driven sampling (RDS) with a sample of injection drug users in Hartford, CT to understand the strategies participants use to recruit peers into a study and the extent to which these strategies may introduce risks above the ethical limit despite safeguards in RDS. Out of 526 injection drug users who participated in a mixed-method RDS methodology evaluation study, a nested sample of 61 participants completed an in-depth semi-structured interview at a 2-month follow-up to explore their experiences with the recruitment process. Findings revealed that participants used a variety of strategies to recruit peers, ranging from one-time interactions to more persistent strategies to encourage participation (e.g., selecting peers that can easily be found and contacted later, following up with peers to remind them of their appointment, accompanying peers to the study site, etc.). Some participants described the more persistent strategies as helpful, while some others experienced these strategies as minor peer pressure, creating a feeling of obligation to participate. Narratives revealed that overall, the probability of experiencing study-related risks remains relatively low for most participants; however, a disconcerting finding was that higher study-related risks (e.g., relationship conflict, loss of relationship, physical fights, violence) were seen for recruits who participated but switched coupons or for recruits who decided not to participate in the study and did not return the coupon to the recruiter. Findings indicate that peer recruitment practices in RDS generally pose minimal risk, but that peer recruitment may occasionally exceed the ethical limit, and that enhanced safeguards for studies using peer recruitment methods are recommended. Suggestions for possible enhancements are described. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A Comparative Study Between Strain And Stress Based Forming Limit Analysis By Applying Several Phenomenological Yield Criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butuc, Marilena C.; Vincze, Gabriela T.; Gracio, Jose J.; Barata da Rocha, A.

    2005-01-01

    The present work aims at analyzing a comparative study between the strain-based forming limit criterion (FLD) and the stress-based forming limit criterion (FLSD), under linear and complex strain paths. The selected material is an AA5182-0 aluminium alloy. Some relevant remarks about stress-based forming limit criterion concept are presented

  18. Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

  19. Medication incident reporting in residential aged care facilities: Limitations and risks to residents’ safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tariq Amina

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medication incident reporting (MIR is a key safety critical care process in residential aged care facilities (RACFs. Retrospective studies of medication incident reports in aged care have identified the inability of existing MIR processes to generate information that can be used to enhance residents’ safety. However, there is little existing research that investigates the limitations of the existing information exchange process that underpins MIR, despite the considerable resources that RACFs’ devote to the MIR process. The aim of this study was to undertake an in-depth exploration of the information exchange process involved in MIR and identify factors that inhibit the collection of meaningful information in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs (part of a large non-profit organisation in NSW, Australia. A total of 23 semi-structured interviews and 62 hours of observation sessions were conducted between May to July 2011. The qualitative data was iteratively analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results The findings highlight significant gaps in the design of the MIR artefacts as well as information exchange issues in MIR process execution. Study results emphasized the need to: a design MIR artefacts that facilitate identification of the root causes of medication incidents, b integrate the MIR process within existing information systems to overcome key gaps in information exchange execution, and c support exchange of information that can facilitate a multi-disciplinary approach to medication incident management in RACFs. Conclusions This study highlights the advantages of viewing MIR process holistically rather than as segregated tasks, as a means to identify gaps in information exchange that need to be addressed in practice to improve safety critical processes.

  20. Medication incident reporting in residential aged care facilities: Limitations and risks to residents’ safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Medication incident reporting (MIR) is a key safety critical care process in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies of medication incident reports in aged care have identified the inability of existing MIR processes to generate information that can be used to enhance residents’ safety. However, there is little existing research that investigates the limitations of the existing information exchange process that underpins MIR, despite the considerable resources that RACFs’ devote to the MIR process. The aim of this study was to undertake an in-depth exploration of the information exchange process involved in MIR and identify factors that inhibit the collection of meaningful information in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs (part of a large non-profit organisation) in NSW, Australia. A total of 23 semi-structured interviews and 62 hours of observation sessions were conducted between May to July 2011. The qualitative data was iteratively analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results The findings highlight significant gaps in the design of the MIR artefacts as well as information exchange issues in MIR process execution. Study results emphasized the need to: a) design MIR artefacts that facilitate identification of the root causes of medication incidents, b) integrate the MIR process within existing information systems to overcome key gaps in information exchange execution, and c) support exchange of information that can facilitate a multi-disciplinary approach to medication incident management in RACFs. Conclusions This study highlights the advantages of viewing MIR process holistically rather than as segregated tasks, as a means to identify gaps in information exchange that need to be addressed in practice to improve safety critical processes. PMID:23122411

  1. Configuration control based on risk matrix for radiotherapy treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montes de Oca Quinnones, Joe; Torres Valle, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The incorporation of the science and technique breakthroughs in the application of the radiotherapy represents a challenge so that, the appearance of equipment failure or human mistakes that triggers unfavorable consequences for patients, public, or the occupationally exposed workers; it is also diversified forcing to incorporate besides, as part of the efforts, new techniques for the evaluation of risk and the detection of the weak points that can lead to these consequences. In order to evaluate the risks of the radiotherapy practices there is the SEVRRA code, based on the method of Risk Matrix. The system SEVRRA is the most frequently used code in the applications of risk studies in radiotherapy treatment. On the other hand, starting from the development of tools to control the dangerous configurations in nuclear power plants, it has been developed the SECURE code, which in its application variant of Risk Matrix, has gain a comfortable interface man-machine to make risk analyses to the radiotherapy treatment, molding in this way a lot of combinations of scenarios. These capacities outstandingly facilitate the studies and risk optimization applications in these practices. In the system SECURE-Risk Matrix are incorporated graphic and analytical capacities, which make more flexible the analyses and the subsequent documentation of all the results. The paper shows the the application of the proposed system to an integral risk study for the process of radiotherapy treatment with linear accelerator. (Author)

  2. Design of limited-stop service based on the degree of unbalance of passenger demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a limited-stop service for a bus fleet to meet the unbalanced demand of passengers on a bus route and to improve the transit service of the bus route. This strategy includes two parts: a degree assessment of unbalanced passenger demand and an optimization of the limited-stop service. The degree assessment of unbalanced passenger demand, which is based on the different passenger demand between stations and the unbalance of passengers within the station, is used to judge whether implementing the limited-stop service is necessary for a bus route. The optimization of limited-stop service considers the influence of stop skipping action and bus capacity on the left-over passengers to determine the proper skipping stations for the bus fleet serving the entire route by minimizing both the waiting time and in-vehicle time of passengers and the running time of vehicles. A solution algorithm based on genetic algorithm is also presented to evaluate the degree of unbalanced passenger demand and optimize the limited-stop scheme. Then, the proper strategy is tested on a bus route in Changchun city of China. The threshold of degree assessment of unbalanced passenger demand can be calibrated and adapted to different passenger demands. PMID:29505585

  3. Design of limited-stop service based on the degree of unbalance of passenger demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hu; Zhao, Shuzhi; Liu, Huasheng; Liang, Shidong

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a limited-stop service for a bus fleet to meet the unbalanced demand of passengers on a bus route and to improve the transit service of the bus route. This strategy includes two parts: a degree assessment of unbalanced passenger demand and an optimization of the limited-stop service. The degree assessment of unbalanced passenger demand, which is based on the different passenger demand between stations and the unbalance of passengers within the station, is used to judge whether implementing the limited-stop service is necessary for a bus route. The optimization of limited-stop service considers the influence of stop skipping action and bus capacity on the left-over passengers to determine the proper skipping stations for the bus fleet serving the entire route by minimizing both the waiting time and in-vehicle time of passengers and the running time of vehicles. A solution algorithm based on genetic algorithm is also presented to evaluate the degree of unbalanced passenger demand and optimize the limited-stop scheme. Then, the proper strategy is tested on a bus route in Changchun city of China. The threshold of degree assessment of unbalanced passenger demand can be calibrated and adapted to different passenger demands.

  4. A simple sizing optimization technique for an impact limiter based on dynamic material properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Woo-Seok; Seo, Ki-Seog

    2010-01-01

    According to IAEA regulations, a transportation package for radioactive material should perform its intended function of containing the radioactive contents after a drop test, which is one of the hypothetical accident conditions. Impact limiters attached to a transport cask absorb most of the impact energy. So, it is important to determine the shape, size and material of impact limiters properly. The material data needed in this determination is a dynamic one. In this study, several materials considered as those of impact limiters were tested by drop weight equipment to acquire the dynamic material characteristics data. The impact absorbing volume of the impact limiter was derived mathematically for each drop condition. A size optimization of the impact limiter was conducted. The derived impact absorbing volumes were applied as constraints. These volumes should be less than the critical volumes generated based on the dynamic material characteristics. The derived procedure to decide the shape of the impact limiter can be useful at the preliminary design stage when the transportation package's outline is roughly determined and applied as an input value.

  5. The lower limiting values of collector properties based on core data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitrofanov, V P; Tul' bovich, B I

    1982-01-01

    There are numerous methods for determining the lower limiting values of collector properties; which is caused by complexity of studying objects, the utilization of different petrophysical parameters and characteristics of formation productiveness. Based on laboratory studies conducted at PermNIPIneft', two methods of determining the limited values of collector properties were examined with consideration of data from existing literature: 1) from the critical water saturation content K /SUB b/ *; 2) using the phase permeability for kerosene or oil K /SUB prk/. In the first case the value of K /SUB b/ * is determined from the presence of filtering of a two-face flow with the oil fraction not less than 2%. Knowing the value of K /SUB b/ *, the limiting values of collector properties are evaluated by using the petrophysical relationships, which reflect the connection between residual water saturation, permeability for a gas, porosity, the complex parameter ..sqrt.. K /SUB prg/ /K /SUB p/, and also by the effective porosity. In the second case determination of the phase permeability K /SUB prk/ for collectors with low permeability allows one to establish limiting values of collector properties of permeability. Transition to the porosity limit is achieved by the relationship of gas permeability to open or effective porosity. The examining methods for determining lower limiting values of collector properties are used in calculating the reserve of 9 deposits in the Permian region.

  6. Risk-Based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...

  7. Benefits of Risk Based Inspection Planning for Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Straub, D.M.; Goyet, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2006-01-01

    The economical benefits of applying risk-based inspection planning (RBI) for offshore structures subject to fatigue are evaluated based on experiences from past industrial projects. To this end, the factors influencing the cost of inspection, repair and failure of structures are discussed......, the financial benefit of RBI is assessed....

  8. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

  9. Personalized comprehensive molecular profiling of high risk osteosarcoma: Implications and limitations for precision medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subbiah, Vivek; Wagner, Michael J; McGuire, Mary F; Sarwari, Nawid M; Devarajan, Eswaran; Lewis, Valerae O; Westin, Shanon; Kato, Shumei; Brown, Robert E; Anderson, Pete

    2015-12-01

    Despite advances in molecular medicine over recent decades, there has been little advancement in the treatment of osteosarcoma. We performed comprehensive molecular profiling in two cases of metastatic and chemotherapy-refractory osteosarcoma to guide molecularly targeted therapy. Hybridization capture of >300 cancer-related genes plus introns from 28 genes often rearranged or altered in cancer was applied to >50 ng of DNA extracted from tumor samples from two patients with recurrent, metastatic osteosarcoma. The DNA from each sample was sequenced to high, uniform coverage. Immunohistochemical probes and morphoproteomics analysis were performed, in addition to fluorescence in situ hybridization. All analyses were performed in CLIA-certified laboratories. Molecularly targeted therapy based on the resulting profiles was offered to the patients. Biomedical analytics were performed using QIAGEN's Ingenuity® Pathway Analysis. In Patient #1, comprehensive next-generation exome sequencing showed MET amplification, PIK3CA mutation, CCNE1 amplification, and PTPRD mutation. Immunohistochemistry-based morphoproteomic analysis revealed c-Met expression [(p)-c-Met (Tyr1234/1235)] and activation of mTOR/AKT pathway [IGF-1R (Tyr1165/1166), p-mTOR [Ser2448], p-Akt (Ser473)] and expression of SPARC and COX2. Targeted therapy was administered to match the P1K3CA, c-MET, and SPARC and COX2 aberrations with sirolimus+ crizotinib and abraxane+ celecoxib. In Patient #2, aberrations included NF2 loss in exons 2-16, PDGFRα amplification, and TP53 mutation. This patient was enrolled on a clinical trial combining targeted agents temsirolimus, sorafenib and bevacizumab, to match NF2, PDGFRα and TP53 aberrations. Both the patients did not benefit from matched therapy. Relapsed osteosarcoma is characterized by complex signaling and drug resistance pathways. Comprehensive molecular profiling holds great promise for tailoring personalized therapies for cancer. Methods for such profiling are

  10. Limits in point to point resolution of MOS based pixels detector arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourches, N.; Desforge, D.; Kebbiri, M.; Kumar, V.; Serruys, Y.; Gutierrez, G.; Leprêtre, F.; Jomard, F.

    2018-01-01

    In high energy physics point-to-point resolution is a key prerequisite for particle detector pixel arrays. Current and future experiments require the development of inner-detectors able to resolve the tracks of particles down to the micron range. Present-day technologies, although not fully implemented in actual detectors, can reach a 5-μm limit, this limit being based on statistical measurements, with a pixel-pitch in the 10 μm range. This paper is devoted to the evaluation of the building blocks for use in pixel arrays enabling accurate tracking of charged particles. Basing us on simulations we will make here a quantitative evaluation of the physical and technological limits in pixel size. Attempts to design small pixels based on SOI technology will be briefly recalled here. A design based on CMOS compatible technologies that allow a reduction of the pixel size below the micrometer is introduced here. Its physical principle relies on a buried carrier-localizing collecting gate. The fabrication process needed by this pixel design can be based on existing process steps used in silicon microelectronics. The pixel characteristics will be discussed as well as the design of pixel arrays. The existing bottlenecks and how to overcome them will be discussed in the light of recent ion implantation and material characterization experiments.

  11. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  12. Inductive fault current limiter based on multiple superconducting rings of small diameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osorio, M R; Cabo, L; Veira, J A; Vidal, F

    2004-01-01

    We present a fault current limiter prototype based on the use of a secondary comprised of an array of magnetic cores of small sections, each one of them with several superconducting rings. The main advantage of this configuration is that it is easier to make small diameter superconducting rings which, in addition, are more homogeneous and allow better refrigeration. We then present detailed measurements that show that, in addition to these advantages, this prototype offers the same limitation performances than when using a unique core and a superconducting ring with an equivalent area as the array of small section cores

  13. The beam-beam limit in asymmetric colliders: Optimization of the B-factory parameter base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tennyson, J.L.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a general theory of the beam-beam limit in symmetric and asymmetric lepton ring colliders. It shows how the beam-beam limit in these accelerators affects the maximum attainable luminosity and presents a specific algorithm for parameter base optimization. It is shown that the special problems inherent in asymmetric colliders derive not from the asymmetry, but from the fact that the two beams must be in different rings. Computer simulation experiments are used to demonstrate the various phenomena discussed in the theory

  14. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  15. A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

    2008-11-15

    Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and

  16. The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.T.

    1998-01-01

    Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

  17. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  19. Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)

  20. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  1. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  2. Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jidong Chen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

  3. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  4. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  5. Actinide solubility in deep groundwaters - estimates for upper limits based on chemical equilibrium calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweingruber, M.

    1983-12-01

    A chemical equilibrium model is used to estimate maximum upper concentration limits for some actinides (Th, U, Np, Pu, Am) in groundwaters. Eh/pH diagrams for solubility isopleths, dominant dissolved species and limiting solids are constructed for fixed parameter sets including temperature, thermodynamic database, ionic strength and total concentrations of most important inorganic ligands (carbonate, fluoride, phosphate, sulphate, chloride). In order to assess conservative conditions, a reference water is defined with high ligand content and ionic strength, but without competing cations. In addition, actinide oxides and hydroxides are the only solid phases considered. Recommendations for 'safe' upper actinide solubility limits for deep groundwaters are derived from such diagrams, based on the predicted Eh/pH domain. The model results are validated as far as the scarce experimental data permit. (Auth.)

  6. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  7. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

  8. Biomarkers to Stratify Risk Groups among Children with Malnutrition in Resource-Limited Settings and to Monitor Response to Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrath, Christine J; Arndt, Michael B; Walson, Judd L

    2017-01-01

    Despite global efforts to reduce childhood undernutrition, current interventions have had little impact on stunting and wasting, and the mechanisms underlying growth faltering are poorly understood. There is a clear need to distinguish populations of children most likely to benefit from any given intervention and to develop tools to monitor response to therapy prior to the development of morbid sequelae. In resource-limited settings, environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is common among children, contributing to malnutrition and increasing childhood morbidity and mortality risk. In addition to EED, early alterations in the gut microbiota can adversely affect growth through nutrient malabsorption, altered metabolism, gut inflammation, and dysregulation of the growth hormone axis. We examined the evidence linking EED and the gut microbiome to growth faltering and explored novel biomarkers to identify subgroups of children at risk of malnutrition due to underlying pathology. These and other biomarkers could be used to identify specific groups of children at risk of malnutrition and monitor response to targeted interventions. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. The analysis of mathematics teachers' learning on algebra function limit material based on teaching experience difference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma'rufi, Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the analysis of mathematics teachers' learning on algebra function limit material based on teaching experience difference. The purpose of this study is to describe the analysis of mathematics teacher's learning on limit algebraic functions in terms of the differences of teaching experience. Learning analysis focused on Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) of teachers in mathematics on limit algebraic functions related to the knowledge of pedagogy. PCK of teachers on limit algebraic function is a type of specialized knowledge for teachers on how to teach limit algebraic function that can be understood by students. Subjects are two high school mathematics teacher who has difference of teaching experience they are one Novice Teacher (NP) and one Experienced Teacher (ET). Data are collected through observation of learning in the class, videos of learning, and then analyzed using qualitative analysis. Teacher's knowledge of Pedagogic defined as a knowledge and understanding of teacher about planning and organizing of learning, and application of learning strategy. The research results showed that the Knowledge of Pedagogy on subject NT in mathematics learning on the material of limit function algebra showed that the subject NT tended to describe procedurally, without explaining the reasons why such steps were used, asking questions which tended to be monotonous not be guiding and digging deeper, and less varied in the use of learning strategies while subject ET gave limited guidance and opportunities to the students to find their own answers, exploit the potential of students to answer questions, provide an opportunity for students to interact and work in groups, and subject ET tended to combine conceptual and procedural explanation.

  10. Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yuan

    2018-04-01

    GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

  11. Chip-integrated optical power limiter based on an all-passive micro-ring resonator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Siqi; Dong, Jianji; Zheng, Aoling; Zhang, Xinliang

    2014-10-01

    Recent progress in silicon nanophotonics has dramatically advanced the possible realization of large-scale on-chip optical interconnects integration. Adopting photons as information carriers can break the performance bottleneck of electronic integrated circuit such as serious thermal losses and poor process rates. However, in integrated photonics circuits, few reported work can impose an upper limit of optical power therefore prevent the optical device from harm caused by high power. In this study, we experimentally demonstrate a feasible integrated scheme based on a single all-passive micro-ring resonator to realize the optical power limitation which has a similar function of current limiting circuit in electronics. Besides, we analyze the performance of optical power limiter at various signal bit rates. The results show that the proposed device can limit the signal power effectively at a bit rate up to 20 Gbit/s without deteriorating the signal. Meanwhile, this ultra-compact silicon device can be completely compatible with the electronic technology (typically complementary metal-oxide semiconductor technology), which may pave the way of very large scale integrated photonic circuits for all-optical information processors and artificial intelligence systems.

  12. Differences conception prospective students teacher about limit of function based gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usman, Juniati, Dwi; Siswono, Tatag Yuli Eko

    2017-08-01

    Gender is one of the interesting topics and has continuity to be explored in mathematics education research. The purpose of this study to explore difference on conceptions of students teaching program by gender. It specialized on conception of understanding, representating, and mental images about limit function. This research conducting qualitative explorative method approach. The subject consisted of one man and one woman from the group of highly skilled student and has gone through semester V. Based on data that had been analyzed proved that male student has an understanding about limit function shared by explaining this material using illustrations, while female student explained it through verbal explanation. Due to representating aspect, it revealed that both of male and female students have similarity such as using verbal explanation, graphs, symbols, and tables to representating about limit function. Analyzing Mental image aspect, researcher got that male student using word "to converge" to explained about limit function, while female student using word "to approach". So, there are differences conceptions about limit function between male and female student.

  13. Limitation of radioactive discharges from NPP based on radionuclide specific monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucina, I; Malatova, I; Vidlakova, J [National Radaition Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    Monitoring of nuclear power plants (NPP) discharges into atmosphere and hydrosphere based on particulate-iodine-gas (PIG) measurements and gross beta and gamma plus tritium measurements respectively is being improved by nuclide specific measurements employing semiconductor gamma and alpha spectrometry and radiochemical methods. In connection with the progress new concept of authorized effluent limits and the related regulations is being implemented in the Czech Republic. Activities of all principally contributing to the effective dose radionuclides discharges during a year multiplied by a Sv/Bq conversion coefficient based on a standard model are summed up and the effective dose is compared with the new limit. These limits should be authorized for discharges into atmosphere as per caput collective committed effective dose in the NPP surrounding or as its value multiplied by the number of surrounding segment providing thus committed effective dose to member of a vital critical group and into the hydrosphere as committed effective dose to the critical group member. The criteria for obligatory evaluation of the specific radionuclide contribution and the resulting requirements on minimum detectable activities for both the shorter and longer monitoring intervals are included in the new regulations. The PIG and gross activity measurement results will be compared with investigation levels only and no more used for limitation purposes. (authors).

  14. Development of derived limits for radiological protection against ionizing radiation based on ICRP-60 recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, S. Y.; Lee, B. S.

    1999-01-01

    Derived limits such as the Annual Limit on Intake (ALI), Derived Air Concentration (DAC) and Effluent Concentration Limit (ECL) for radiological protection against ionizing radiation based on ICRP-60 recommendations were calculated using dose limits and committed effective dose coefficients of the basic Safety Standards of IAEA (i.e. safety series 115; BSS-96). Derived limits regarding occupational exposure were derived using methodologies of ICRP-61 and dose limit stated in ICRP -60. ECL in air and water for the control of radioactive discharge into the environment were derived using methodologies of 10 CFR part 20 and dose limit stated in ICRP-60. In order to analyze the impact of implementing derived limits on nuclear facilities, the derived values in this study were compared with those prescribed in 10 CFR part 20 as well as the Maximum Permissible Concentrations (MPC) of Notice No. 98-12 of the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). According to the comparison results, ECLs in air and water for the control of radioactive discharge into the environment in this study are shown to have lower values (i.e. more conservative), for most part, than those in Notice No. 98-12. These differences are due to the reduction of dose limit, adoption of a weighting factor for age-dependency in dose coefficients, and application of new respiratory tract model and bio-kinetics model. Especially, for uranium elements (i.e., 235 U, 238 U, etc.), which are governing ones in the nuclear fuel industries, ECLs in water are approximately a magnitude in the order of two lower than those in Notice No. 98-12. These are attributable to the adoption of a weighting factor for age-dependency in dose coefficients, newly recommended dose coefficients for ingestion pathway, and reduction of dose limit. It was found out that the differences in ECLs in water for uranium elements originated mostly from ingestion dose coefficients recommended by BSS-96. (author). 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  15. A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munganahalli, D.

    1996-12-31

    Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

  16. Joint preprocesser-based detector for cooperative networks with limited hardware processing capability

    KAUST Repository

    Abuzaid, Abdulrahman I.

    2015-02-01

    In this letter, a joint detector for cooperative communication networks is proposed when the destination has limited hardware processing capability. The transmitter sends its symbols with the help of L relays. As the destination has limited hardware, only U out of L signals are processed and the energy of the remaining relays is lost. To solve this problem, a joint preprocessing based detector is proposed. This joint preprocessor based detector operate on the principles of minimizing the symbol error rate (SER). For a realistic assessment, pilot symbol aided channel estimation is incorporated for this proposed detector. From our simulations, it can be observed that our proposed detector achieves the same SER performance as that of the maximum likelihood (ML) detector with all participating relays. Additionally, our detector outperforms selection combining (SC), channel shortening (CS) scheme and reduced-rank techniques when using the same U. Our proposed scheme has low computational complexity.

  17. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  18. Promotion of technical harmonisation on risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchsteiger, Christian; Cojazzi, Giacomo

    2000-01-01

    The EC-JRC International Workshop on Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making, held at Stresa and Ispra, Italy, 22-25 May 2000, was an experts meeting to discuss the possible need of developing an internationally accepted generic 'standard' for risk-based decision making.This paper briefly describes the workshop background, its organisation and summarises its main results and conclusions; it reflects the personal opinions of the authors and in no way commits the European Commission. (author)

  19. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  1. Genetic variation in the base excision repair pathway, environmental risk factors, and colorectal adenoma risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Corral

    Full Text Available Cigarette smoking, high alcohol intake, and low dietary folate levels are risk factors for colorectal adenomas. Oxidative damage caused by these three factors can be repaired through the base excision repair pathway (BER. We hypothesized that genetic variation in BER might modify colorectal adenoma risk. In a sigmoidoscopy-based study, we examined associations between 182 haplotype tagging SNPs in 14 BER genes, and colorectal adenoma risk, and examined their potential role as modifiers of the effect cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and dietary folate levels. Among all individuals, no statistically significant associations between BER SNPs and adenoma risk persisted after correction for multiple comparisons. However, among Asian-Pacific Islanders we observed two SNPs in FEN1 and one in NTHL1, and among African-Americans one SNP in APEX1 that were associated with colorectal adenoma risk. Significant associations were also observed between SNPs in the NEIL2 gene and rectal adenoma risk. Three SNPS modified the effect of smoking (MUTYH interaction p = 0.002; OGG1 interaction p = 0.013; FEN1 interaction p = 0.013, one SNP in LIG3 modified the effect of alcohol consumption (interaction p = 0.024 and two SNPs in LIG3 modified the effect of dietary folate (interaction p = 0.001 and p = 0.08 on colorectal adenoma risk. These findings support a role for genetic variants in the BER pathway as potential modifiers of colorectal adenoma risk. Our findings strengthen the role of oxidative damage induced by key lifestyle and dietary risk factors in colorectal adenoma formation.

  2. Assessing control of postural stability in community-living older adults using performance-based limits of stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boissy Patrick

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Balance disability measurements routinely used to identify fall risks in frail populations have limited value in the early detection of postural stability deficits in community-living older adults. The objectives of the study were to 1 measure performance-based limits of stability (LOS in community-living older adults and compare them to theoretical LOS computed from data proposed by the Balance Master® system, 2 explore the feasibility of a new measurement approach based on the assessment of postural stability during weight-shifting tasks at performance-based LOS, 3 quantify intra-session performance variability during multiple trials using the performance-based LOS paradigm. Methods Twenty-four healthy community-living older adults (10 men, 14 women aged between 62 to 85 (mean age ± sd, 71.5 ± 6 yrs participated in the study. Subjects' performance-based LOS were established by asking them to transfer their body weight as far as possible in three directions (forward, right and left without changing their base of support. LOS were computed as the maximal excursion of the COP in each direction among three trials. Participants then performed two experimental tasks that consisted in controlling, with the assistance of visual feedback, their centre of pressure (COP within two predefined targets set at 100% of their performance-based LOS. For each tasks 8 trials were performed. Ground reaction forces and torques during performance-based LOS evaluation and experimental tasks were recorded with a force plate. Sway area and medio-lateral mean COP displacement speed variables were extracted from force plate recordings. Results Significant differences between theoretical LOS computed from maximum leaning angles derived from anthropometric characteristics and performance-based LOS were observed. Results showed that a motor learning effect was present as the participants optimized their weight-shifting strategy through the first three

  3. Advantages and limitations of web-based surveys: evidence from a child mental health survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiervang, Einar; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Web-based surveys may have advantages related to the speed and cost of data collection as well as data quality. However, they may be biased by low and selective participation. We predicted that such biases would distort point-estimates such as average symptom level or prevalence but not patterns of associations with putative risk-factors. A structured psychiatric interview was administered to parents in two successive surveys of child mental health. In 2003, parents were interviewed face-to-face, whereas in 2006 they completed the interview online. In both surveys, interviews were preceded by paper questionnaires covering child and family characteristics. The rate of parents logging onto the web site was comparable to the response rate for face-to-face interviews, but the rate of full response (completing all sections of the interview) was much lower for web-based interviews. Full response was less frequent for non-traditional families, immigrant parents, and less educated parents. Participation bias affected point estimates of psychopathology but had little effect on associations with putative risk factors. The time and cost of full web-based interviews was only a quarter of that for face-to-face interviews. Web-based surveys may be performed faster and at lower cost than more traditional approaches with personal interviews. Selective participation seems a particular threat to point estimates of psychopathology, while patterns of associations are more robust.

  4. Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

    2015-01-01

    Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  5. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  6. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  7. Study of operational risk-based configuration control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1991-08-01

    This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

  8. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  9. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

  10. Limited output transcranial electrical stimulation (LOTES-2017): Engineering principles, regulatory statutes, and industry standards for wellness, over-the-counter, or prescription devices with low risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bikson, Marom; Paneri, Bhaskar; Mourdoukoutas, Andoni; Esmaeilpour, Zeinab; Badran, Bashar W; Azzam, Robin; Adair, Devin; Datta, Abhishek; Fang, Xiao Hui; Wingeier, Brett; Chao, Daniel; Alonso-Alonso, Miguel; Lee, Kiwon; Knotkova, Helena; Woods, Adam J; Hagedorn, David; Jeffery, Doug; Giordano, James; Tyler, William J

    regard to output performance and standing regulation, the availability of tDCS, tACS, or tPCS to the public would not introduce risk, provided such devices are responsibly manufactured and legally marketed. In Part 3, we develop voluntary manufacturer guidance for limited output tES that is aligned with current regulatory standards. Based on established medical engineering and scientific principles, we outline a robust and transparent technical framework for ensuring limited output tES devices are designed to minimize risks, while also supporting access and innovation. Alongside applicable medical and government activities, this voluntary industry standard (LOTES-2017) further serves an important role in supporting informed decisions by the public. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Cool but counterproductive: interactive, Web-based risk communications can backfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

    2011-08-25

    Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of "fill-in-the-blank" pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents' ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P graphic formats.

  12. Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

    2013-02-12

    Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

  13. Dealing with regional hydrologic data-base limitations. Case example: the Columbia River basalts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schalla, R.; Leonhart, L.S.

    1981-01-01

    Limitations are encountered in assembling hydrologic data for a broad geographic region, such as the Columbia Plateau in the northwestern US, into a conceptual model of the hydrologic system. These limitations may become resonant in subsequent numerical simulations of hydrologic system behavior. Included among such data limitations are irregular spatial distributions of data, decreases in information with increasing depth from the land surface, uncertainties about the reliability of reported hydrologic data, disparities in time-dependent parameters, and lack of field verification of data. The preparation of a regional hydrologic system description, therefore, first involves a comprehensive data evaluation, wherein the data are classified and ranked in terms of their utility to the study. The results of this evaluation are essential in planning future data acquisition activities, as well as in selecting and developing models. In turn, iterative use of modeling, data refinement, and data acquisition is considered to be highly effective. The case example of preparing a hydrologic system description for the Columbia Plateau, as required for repository siting, illustrates methods of determining the accuracy of certain data, compensating for data limitations, evaluating the need for acquiring additional data, and refining data through iterative techniques. Emphasis is placed on professional subjectivity, which has proven to be essential in data base evaluation and refinement

  14. A new active portfolio risk management for an electricity retailer based on a drawdown risk preference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charwand, Mansour; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Siano, Pierluigi

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses the deciding under uncertainty of an electricity retailer in order to maximise its total expected rate of return. The developed methodology is based on the modelling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices that seeks to manage a portfolio of different contracts. Retailer's load and the price at each zone are forecasted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and a clustering technique is used for scenario reduction. Supply sources include the pool, self-production facilities, forward and bilateral contracts. The risk of cost fluctuation due to uncertainties is explicitly modelled using the multi-scenario drawdown methodology. This risk function quantifies in aggregated format the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns over planning horizon. In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem. Carried out experimental results on the basis of realistic data, show that imposing risk constraints improve the “real” performance of a portfolio management in out-of-sample runs. - Highlights: • A new drawdown-based method is introduced to retailer deciding under uncertainty. • This tool is used to assess the risk levels regarding retailer midterm strategies. • The methodology is based on the modeling of the stochastic evolution of zonal prices. • The risk function quantifies the frequency and magnitude of the portfolio drawdowns. • In-sample and out-of-sample runs are performed for a portfolio allocation problem.

  15. Low-cost matched sibling bone marrow transplant for standard-risk thalassemia in a limited-resource setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stalin Ramprakash

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Thalassemias are the most common inherited genetic disorder in India and a major public health burden with bone marrow transplant (BMT considered the only established curative therapy. We describe outcomes for patients (n = 71 with standard-risk thalassemia (liver size 80 at the last follow up. 5 patients (7% died, mortality related to transplant. Enough data existed for 2 centers in India (36/71 transplants to analyze overall costs from admission up to one-year post-BMT which revealed a median cost of Rs 7,30,445 ($11519 [Range Rs 4,52,821–10,32,842 ($ 7079–16147]. In conclusion, children with thalassemia in resource limited settings can achieve good outcomes with BMT at a reasonable cost.

  16. Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Alan E.

    Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures

  17. A School-Based Suicide Risk Assessment Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccio, Dana E.

    2015-01-01

    Suicide remains the third leading cause of death among young people in the United States. Considering that youth who contemplate suicide generally exhibit warning signs before engaging in lethal self-harm, school-based mental health professionals can play a vital role in identifying students who are at risk for suicidal behavior. Nevertheless, the…

  18. Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

    2017-05-01

    Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. 6 CFR 27.230 - Risk-based performance standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based performance standards. 27.230 Section 27.230 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY... the facility and that discourages abuse through established disciplinary measures; (4) Deter, Detect...

  20. Develop risk-based procurement management tools for SMEs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staal, Anne; Hagelaar, Geoffrey; Walhof, Gert; Holman, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides guidance for developing risk-based management tools to improve the procurement (purchasing) performance of SMEs. Extant academic literature only offers little support on developing such tools and does not consider the wide variety of SMEs. The paper defines a procurement tool for

  1. Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cloninger, T.H.

    1997-01-01

    This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

  2. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...

  3. Planning of operation & maintenance using risk and reliability based methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Operation and maintenance (OM) of offshore wind turbines contributes with a substantial part of the total levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The objective of this paper is to present an application of risk- and reliability-based methods for planning of OM. The theoretical basis is presented...

  4. Comparison between Canadian probabilistic safety assessment methods formulated by Atomic Energy of Canada limited and probabilistic risk assessment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, H.S.; Smith, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    The procedures used by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) to perform probabilistic safety assessments (PRAs) differ somewhat from conventionally accepted probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedures used elsewhere. In Canada, PSA is used by AECL as an audit tool for an evolving design. The purpose is to assess the safety of the plant in engineering terms. Thus, the PSA procedures are geared toward providing engineering feedback so that necessary changes can be made to the design at an early stage, input can be made to operating procedures, and test and maintenance programs can be optimized in terms of costs. Most PRAs, by contrast, are performed in plants that are already built. Their main purpose is to establish the core melt frequency and the risk to the public due to core melt. Also, any design modification is very expensive. The differences in purpose and timing between PSA and PRA have resulted in differences in methodology and scope. The PSA procedures are used on all plants being designed by AECL

  5. Periodic Forcing of a 555-IC Based Electronic Oscillator in the Strong Coupling Limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillán, Moisés

    We designed and developed a master-slave electronic oscillatory system (based on the 555-timer IC working in the astable mode), and investigated its dynamic behavior regarding synchronization. For that purpose, we measured the rotation numbers corresponding to the phase-locking rhythms achieved in a large set of values of the normalized forcing frequency (NFF) and of the coupling strength between the master and the slave oscillators. In particular, we were interested in the system behavior in the strong-coupling limit, because such problem has not been extensively studied from an experimental perspective. Our results indicate that, in such a limit, a degenerate codimension-2 bifurcation point at NFF = 2 exists, in which all the phase-locking regions converge. These findings were corroborated by means of a mathematical model developed to that end, as well as by ad hoc further experiments.

  6. Transport properties of triarylamine based dendrimers studied by space charge limited current transients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymanski, Marek Z.; Kulszewicz-Bajer, Irena; Faure-Vincent, Jérôme; Djurado, David

    2012-08-01

    We have studied hole transport in triarylamine based dendrimer using space-charge-limited current transient technique. A mobility of 8 × 10-6 cm2/(V s) and a characteristic detrapping time of about 100 ms have been obtained. We found that quasi-ohmic contact is formed with gold. The obtained mobility differs from the apparent one given by the analysis of stationary current-voltage characteristics because of a limited contact efficiency. The comparison between transients obtained from fresh and aged samples reveals no change in mobility with aging. The deterioration of electrical properties is exclusively caused by trap formation and accumulation of ionic conducting impurities. Finally, repeated transient measurements have been applied to analyze the dynamics of charge trapping process.

  7. Capacity Prediction Model Based on Limited Priority Gap-Acceptance Theory at Multilane Roundabouts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaowei Qu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Capacity is an important design parameter for roundabouts, and it is the premise of computing their delay and queue. Roundabout capacity has been studied for decades, and empirical regression model and gap-acceptance model are the two main methods to predict it. Based on gap-acceptance theory, by considering the effect of limited priority, especially the relationship between limited priority factor and critical gap, a modified model was built to predict the roundabout capacity. We then compare the results between Raff’s method and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE method, and the MLE method was used to predict the critical gaps. Finally, the predicted capacities from different models were compared, with the observed capacity by field surveys, which verifies the performance of the proposed model.

  8. Processing considerations with plasma-based ion implantation of polymers: theoretical aspects, limitations, and experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacoste, A.; Pelletier, J.

    2003-01-01

    Processing of polymers using plasma-based ion implantation techniques (PBII) has general implications in terms of plasma specifications and pulse characteristics. In particular, the different aspects of the processing of polymer layers are discussed as functions of plasma density, pulse duration, and layer characteristics (thickness and permittivity). Clearly, severe limitations (true implantation energy, arcing) may appear for high-density plasmas as well as for long pulse durations, when processing polymer layers with thickness in the mm range. A review of the experimental results of ion implantation in polymeric materials via PBII processing is presented. The experimental results demonstrate the possibility of processing polymer layers with the PBII technique, but with severe limitations resulting from the process itself

  9. Upper limit for context-based crop classification in robotic weeding applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Midtiby, Henrik Skov; Åstrand, Björn; Jørgensen, Ole

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of the precise position of crop plants is a prerequisite for effective mechanical weed control in robotic weeding application such as in crops like sugar beets which are sensitive to mechanical stress. Visual detection and recognition of crop plants based on their shapes has been...... described many times in the literature. In this paper the potential of using knowledge about the crop seed pattern is investigated based on simulated output from a perception system. The reliability of position–based crop plant detection is shown to depend on the weed density (ρ, measured in weed plants per...... square metre) and the crop plant pattern position uncertainty (σx and σy, measured in metres along and perpendicular to the crop row, respectively). The recognition reliability can be described with the positive predictive value (PPV), which is limited by the seeding pattern uncertainty and the weed...

  10. Contribution of modifiable risk factors for hypertension and type-2 diabetes in Peruvian resource-limited settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Smeeth, Liam; Miranda, J Jaime

    2016-01-01

    It is important to understand the local burden of non-communicable diseases including within-country heterogeneity. The aim of this study was to characterise hypertension and type-2 diabetes profiles across different Peruvian geographical settings emphasising the assessment of modifiable risk factors. Analysis of the CRONICAS Cohort Study baseline assessment was conducted. Cardiometabolic outcomes were blood pressure categories (hypertension, prehypertension, normal) and glucose metabolism disorder status (diabetes, prediabetes, normal). Exposures were study setting and six modifiable factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, leisure time and transport-related physical activity levels, TV watching, fruit/vegetables intake and obesity). Poisson regression models were used to report prevalence ratios (PR). Population attributable risks (PAR) were also estimated. Data from 3238 participants, 48.3% male, mean age 45.3 years, were analysed. Age-standardised (WHO population) prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension was 24% and 16%, whereas for prediabetes and type-2 diabetes it was 18% and 6%, respectively. Outcomes varied according to study setting (pdiabetes. PAR showed that obesity was an important determinant for hypertension (15.7%) and type-2 diabetes (23.9%). There is an evident heterogeneity in the prevalence of and risk factors for hypertension and diabetes within Peru. Prehypertension and prediabetes are highly prevalent across settings. Our results emphasise the need of understanding the epidemiology of cardiometabolic conditions to appropriately implement interventions to tackle the burden of non-communicable diseases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  11. RiskREP : risk-based security requirements elicitation and prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, A.; Morali, A.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement "good-enough security" but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  12. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

  13. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de

    2015-01-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ"2) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue

  14. Agreement in cardiovascular risk rating based on anthropometric parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dantas, Endilly Maria da Silva; Pinto, Cristiane Jordânia; Freitas, Rodrigo Pegado de Abreu; Medeiros, Anna Cecília Queiroz de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    To investigate the agreement in evaluation of risk of developing cardiovascular diseases based on anthropometric parameters in young adults. The study included 406 students, measuring weight, height, and waist and neck circumferences. Waist-to-height ratio and the conicity index. The kappa coefficient was used to assess agreement in risk classification for cardiovascular diseases. The positive and negative specific agreement values were calculated as well. The Pearson chi-square (χ{sup 2}) test was used to assess associations between categorical variables (p<0.05). The majority of the parameters assessed (44%) showed slight (k=0.21 to 0.40) and/or poor agreement (k<0.20), with low values of negative specific agreement. The best agreement was observed between waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio both for the general population (k=0.88) and between sexes (k=0.93 to 0.86). There was a significant association (p<0.001) between the risk of cardiovascular diseases and females when using waist circumference and conicity index, and with males when using neck circumference. This resulted in a wide variation in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk (5.5%-36.5%), depending on the parameter and the sex that was assessed. The results indicate variability in agreement in assessing risk for cardiovascular diseases, based on anthropometric parameters, and which also seems to be influenced by sex. Further studies in the Brazilian population are required to better understand this issue.

  15. Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowska Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

  16. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  17. Flat punch adhesion: transition from fracture-based to strength-limited pull-off

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Yijie; Turner, Kevin T; Grierson, David S

    2014-01-01

    The adhesion of a cylindrical flat punch to a surface due to interatomic forces is a well-known problem that is important in many applications, including indentation experiments and the adhesion of fibrillar structures. Traditionally, the pull-off force has been related to the work of adhesion and punch geometry via the Kendall solution that uses a Griffith energy balance to assess crack propagation and pull-off. More recently, it has been shown that under certain conditions, notably at small punch diameters, the contact can behave in a ‘strength-limited’ fashion in which the interface separates uniformly rather than via crack propagation. Here, a Maugis-Dugdale-type analysis of power-law-shaped bodies in contact is used to examine the change in behaviour from the fracture-based Kendall solution to strength-limited pull-off for cylindrical flat punches. The transition from fracture-based to strength-limited behaviour is described in terms of a non-dimensional parameter that is similar to previous quantities used to describe the transition and is a function of the punch size, the elasticity of the contact, and the adhesion properties. The results of this relatively simple analysis compare favourably with results from more complex computational simulations. In addition, the results are used to develop a function that quantifies the transition between the Kendall solution and the strength-limited solution in order to facilitate interpretation of adhesion measurements in the transition regime between the two limits. Finally, the power-law analysis is used to assess the sensitivity of the transition to the exact shape of the punch. (paper)

  18. Over 600 mobile base station measurements in Buenos Aires City, how far are general public limits?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguirre, Anibal; Dalmas Di Giovanni, Norberto; Garcia Diaz, Javier; Douthat, Analia; Munoz, Claudio; Saint Nom, Roxana

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The general public worries about non ionizing radiation (NIR), produced by mobile base station aren't new, mainly in big cities like Buenos Aires where the amount of antennas of wide communication services (mobile, data links, FM Broadcasting, TV and others), are so considerable. Buenos Aires City has 3 million inhabitants in a surface of 203 km 2 and has about 700 mobile base stations between macro and micro cells. When public demand arrived to local government authorities, the first logical step was to promote a big measurement campaign to do a radiation map of the city. This measurement campaign has been done for two measurement teams, one with CITEFA NIR specialists and the other with ITBA NIR specialists, during 6 months. Local NRI measurement guidelines established that has to be taken between 12 and 16 points around NRI source in a 50 m or 100 m radius, depending on the neighbourhood buildings features (buildings located in the centre of the city aren't the same as a quiet house district). The obtained measured values had to be compared with Argentinean exposure limits, which are the same that ICNIRP limits. With over 7500 measured points in the entire city with wide band instruments (200 kHz-40 GHz), we have started our analysis. This information has been used by local authorities to upgrade a radiation map that can be consulted on the local government internet site. We have compared the obtained values with some international general public exposure limits. From this comparison we found that over 90% of measured points were under general public ICNIRP cell phone frequency limits, but the surprise was that, about 80% of them were below Russian limits (6 V/m) that are the strictest of the world. According to the obtained results and to provide a conclusion we could say that, if in a big city with a very high NIR sources density, we find a majority of lower limits values, this situation will be better in a little town with few NIR sources. However

  19. Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

  20. Project Scheduling Based on Risk of Gas Transmission Pipe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvianita; Nurbaity, A.; Mulyadi, Y.; Suntoyo; Chamelia, D. M.

    2018-03-01

    The planning of a project has a time limit on which must be completed before or right at a predetermined time. Thus, in a project planning, it is necessary to have scheduling management that is useful for completing a project to achieve maximum results by considering the constraints that will exists. Scheduling management is undertaken to deal with uncertainties and negative impacts of time and cost in project completion. This paper explains about scheduling management in gas transmission pipeline project Gresik-Semarang to find out which scheduling plan is most effectively used in accordance with its risk value. Scheduling management in this paper is assissted by Microsoft Project software to find the critical path of existing project scheduling planning data. Critical path is the longest scheduling path with the fastest completion time. The result is found a critical path on project scheduling with completion time is 152 days. Furthermore, the calculation of risk is done by using House of Risk (HOR) method and it is found that the critical path has a share of 40.98 percent of all causes of the occurence of risk events that will be experienced.

  1. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

  2. Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1987-01-01

    Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

  3. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  4. Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

    2016-10-01

    This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk-based Operation and Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Nielsen, Jannie Jessen

    2011-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines, costs to Operation and Maintenance (OM) are substantial, and can be expected to increase when wind farms are placed at deeper water depths and in more harsh environments. Traditional strategies for OM include corrective and preventive (scheduled and condition...... statistics and costs of the different operations. The different OM strategies are described and compared in an illustrative example with focus on which types of information that are needed. Special focus is on comparison between risk-based maintenance strategies and the conventional maintenance planning...... and are often the driving mechanisms for failures / faults that need maintenance. Observations of the degree of damage can increase the reliability of predictions and decrease the costs of OM if integrated in a risk-based framework theoretically based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. The mathematical...

  6. Automated analysis of security requirements through risk-based argumentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Yijun; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Tun, Thein Tan; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Nuseibeh, Bashar

    2015-01-01

    Computer-based systems are increasingly being exposed to evolving security threats, which often reveal new vulnerabilities. A formal analysis of the evolving threats is difficult due to a number of practical considerations such as incomplete knowledge about the design, limited information about

  7. Computer-based medical education in Benha University, Egypt: knowledge, attitude, limitations, and suggestions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayomy, Hanaa; El Awadi, Mona; El Araby, Eman; Abed, Hala A

    2016-12-01

    Computer-assisted medical education has been developed to enhance learning and enable high-quality medical care. This study aimed to assess computer knowledge and attitude toward the inclusion of computers in medical education among second-year medical students in Benha Faculty of Medicine, Egypt, to identify limitations, and obtain suggestions for successful computer-based learning. This was a one-group pre-post-test study, which was carried out on second-year students in Benha Faculty of Medicine. A structured self-administered questionnaire was used to compare students' knowledge, attitude, limitations, and suggestions toward computer usage in medical education before and after the computer course to evaluate the change in students' responses. The majority of students were familiar with use of the mouse and keyboard, basic word processing, internet and web searching, and e-mail both before and after the computer course. The proportion of students who were familiar with software programs other than the word processing and trouble-shoot software/hardware was significantly higher after the course (Pcomputer (P=0.008), the inclusion of computer skills course in medical education, downloading lecture handouts, and computer-based exams (Pcomputers limited the inclusion of computer in medical education (Pcomputer labs, lack of Information Technology staff mentoring, large number of students, unclear course outline, and lack of internet access were more frequently reported before the course (Pcomputer labs, inviting Information Technology staff to support computer teaching, and the availability of free Wi-Fi internet access covering several areas in the university campus; all would support computer-assisted medical education. Medical students in Benha University are computer literate, which allows for computer-based medical education. Staff training, provision of computer labs, and internet access are essential requirements for enhancing computer usage in medical

  8. Theory-based scaling of the SOL width in circular limited tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halpern, F.D.; Ricci, P.; Labit, B.; Furno, I.; Jolliet, S.; Loizu, J.; Mosetto, A.; Arnoux, G.; Silva, C.; Gunn, J.P.; Horacek, J.; Kočan, M.; LaBombard, B.

    2013-01-01

    A theory-based scaling for the characteristic length of a circular, limited tokamak scrape-off layer (SOL) is obtained by considering the balance between parallel losses and non-linearly saturated resistive ballooning mode turbulence driving anomalous perpendicular transport. The SOL size increases with plasma size, resistivity, and safety factor q. The scaling is verified against flux-driven non-linear turbulence simulations, which reveal good agreement within a wide range of dimensionless parameters, including parameters closely matching the TCV tokamak. An initial comparison of the theory against experimental data from several tokamaks also yields good agreement. (letter)

  9. Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules......In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures......, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can...

  10. Prevalence and risk factors for allergic rhinitis in two resource-limited settings in Peru with disparate degrees of urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, L M; Romero, K M; Robinson, C L; Hansel, N N; Gilman, R H; Hamilton, R G; Lima, J J; Wise, R A; Checkley, W

    2015-01-01

    Allergic rhinitis is a disease with a high global disease burden, but risk factors that contribute to this condition are not well understood. To assess the prevalence and risk factors of allergic rhinitis in two Peruvian populations with disparate degrees of urbanization. We conducted a population-based, cross-sectional study on 1441 children aged 13-15 years at enrollment (mean age 14.9 years, 51% boys) to investigate the prevalence of allergic disease. We used a standardized, Spanish validated questionnaire to determine the prevalence of allergic rhinitis and asked about sociodemographics and family history of allergies. Children also underwent spirometry, exhaled nitric oxide, allergy skin testing to 10 common household allergens and provided a blood sample for measurement of 25OH vitamin D and total serum IgE. Overall prevalence of allergic rhinitis was 18% (95% CI 16% to 20%). When stratified by site, the prevalence of allergic rhinitis was 23% Lima vs. 13% in Tumbes (P overweight (1.5, 1.0-2.3); exhaled nitric oxide ≥ 20 ppb (1.9, 1.3-2.7); and total serum IgE ≥ 95th percentile (2.4, 1.2-4.8). Population attributable risk of important factors for allergic rhinitis were 25% for high exhaled nitric oxide, 22% for allergic sensitization to common household aeroallergens, 22% for paternal rhinitis, 10% for being overweight and 7% for an elevated total serum IgE. Allergic rhinitis was prevalent in both settings, and important risk factors include elevated exhaled nitric oxide, allergic sensitization to common household aeroallergens, parental rhinitis, being overweight and high total serum IgE. When considering subject-specific factors, the difference in prevalence between the urban and rural settings became non-important. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitoussi, L.

    1987-12-01

    The dose limit is defined to be the level of harmfulness which must not be exceeded, so that an activity can be exercised in a regular manner without running a risk unacceptable to man and the society. The paper examines the effects of radiation categorised into stochastic and non-stochastic. Dose limits for workers and the public are discussed

  12. Can a Risk Factor Based Approach Safely Reduce Screening for Retinopathy of Prematurity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Friddle

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Current American retinopathy of prematurity (ROP screening guidelines is imprecise for infants ≥ 30 weeks with birth weights between 1500 and 2000 g. Our objective was to evaluate a risk factor based approach for screening premature infants at low risk for severe ROP. Study Design. We performed a 13-year review from Intermountain Health Care (IHC data. All neonates born at ≤32 weeks were reviewed to determine ROP screening and/or development of severe ROP. Severe ROP was defined by stage ≥ 3 or need for laser therapy. Regression analysis was used to identify significant risk factors for severe ROP. Results. We identified 4607 neonates ≤ 32 weeks gestation. Following exclusion for death, with no retinal exam or incomplete data, 2791 (61% were included in the study. Overall, severe ROP occurred in 260 (9.3%, but only 11/1601 ≥ 29 weeks (0.7%. All infants with severe ROP ≥ 29 weeks had at least 2 identified ROP risk factors. Implementation of this risk based screening strategy to the IHC population over the timeline of this study would have eliminated screening in 21% (343/1601 of the screened population. Conclusions. Limiting ROP screening for infants ≥ 29 and ≤ 32 weeks to only those with clinical risk factors could significantly reduce screening exams while identifying all infants with severe ROP.

  13. Evaluation on the detection limit of blood hemoglobin using photolepthysmography based on path-length optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Di; Guo, Chao; Zhang, Ziyang; Han, Tongshuai; Liu, Jin

    2016-10-01

    The blood hemoglobin concentration's (BHC) measurement using Photoplethysmography (PPG), which gets blood absorption to near infrared light from the instantaneous pulse of transmitted light intensity, has not been applied to the clinical use due to the non-enough precision. The main challenge might be caused of the non-enough stable pulse signal when it's very weak and it often varies in different human bodies or in the same body with different physiological states. We evaluated the detection limit of BHC using PPG as the measurement precision level, which can be considered as a best precision result because we got the relative stable subject's pulse signals recorded by using a spectrometer with high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) level, which is about 30000:1 in short term. Moreover, we optimized the used pathlength using the theory based on optimum pathlength to get a better sensitivity to the absorption variation in blood. The best detection limit was evaluated as about 1 g/L for BHC, and the best SNR of pulse for in vivo measurement was about 2000:1 at 1130 and 1250 nm. Meanwhile, we conclude that the SNR of pulse signal should be better than 400:1 when the required detection limit is set to 5 g/L. Our result would be a good reference to the BHC measurement to get a desired BHC measurement precision of real application.

  14. Lower limit on the achievable temperature in resonator-based sideband cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grajcar, M.; Ashhab, S.; Johansson, J. R.; Nori, F.

    2009-03-01

    A resonator with eigenfrequency φr can be effectively used as a cooler for another linear oscillator with a much smaller frequency φmφr. A huge cooling effect, which could be used to cool a mechanical oscillator below the energy of quantum fluctuations, has been predicted by several authors. However, here we show that there is a lower limit T^* on the achievable temperature, given by T^* = Tm; φm/ φr, that was not considered in previous work and can be higher than the quantum limit in realistic experimental realizations. We also point out that the decay rate of the resonator, which previous studies stress should be small, must be larger than the decay rate of the cooled oscillator for effective cooling. M. Grajcar, S. Ashhab, J.R. Johansson, F. Nori, Lower limit on the achievable temperature in resonator-based sideband cooling, Phys. Rev. B 78, 035406 (2008). URL: http://link.aps.org/abstract/PRB/v78/e035406

  15. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuyong Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic reliability index and to narrow the range of the nonprobabilistic reliability index. If the range of the reliability index reduces to an acceptable accuracy, the solution will be considered convergent, and the nonprobabilistic reliability index will be obtained. The case study indicates that using the proposed method can avoid oscillating iteration process, make iteration process stable and convergent, reduce iteration steps significantly, and improve computational efficiency and precision significantly compared with the traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method. Finally, the nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation process of bridge will be built through evaluating the reliability of one PC continuous rigid frame bridge with three spans using the proposed method, which appears to be more simple and reliable when lack of samples and parameters in the bridge nonprobabilistic reliability evaluation is present.

  16. Cellular aging (the Hayflick limit) and species longevity: a unification model based on clonal succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juckett, D A

    1987-03-01

    A model is presented which proposes a specific cause-and-effect relationship between a limited cell division potential and the maximum lifespan of humans and other mammals. It is based on the clonal succession hypothesis of Kay which states that continually replicating cell beds (e.g. bone marrow, intestinal crypts, epidermis) could be composed of cells with short, well-defined division potentials. In this model, the cells of these beds are proposed to exist in an ordered hierarchy which establishes a specific sequence for cell divisions throughout the organism's lifespan. The depletion of division potential at all hierarchical levels leads to a loss of bed function and sets an intrinsic limit to species longevity. A specific hierarchy for cell proliferation is defined which allows the calculation of time to bed depletion and, ultimately, to organism mortality. The model allows the existence of a small number (n) of critical cell beds within the organism and defines organism death as the inability of any one of these beds to produce cells. The model is consistent with all major observations related to cellular and organismic aging. In particular, it links the PDLs (population doubling limit) observed for various species to their mean lifespan; it explains the slow decline in PDL as a function of age of the donor; it establishes a thermodynamically stable maximum lifespan for a disease-free population; and it can explain why tissue transplants outlive donors or hosts.

  17. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  18. Modifying EPA radiation risk models based on BEIR VII

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pawel, D.; Puskin, J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes a 'draft White Paper' that provides details on proposed changes in EPA's methodology for estimating radiogenic cancer risks. Many of the changes are based on the contents of a recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report (BEIR VII), that addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. The draft White Paper was prepared for a meeting with the EPA's Science Advisory Board's Radiation Advisory Committee (RAC) in September for seeking advice on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions. After receiving the Advisory review, we plan to implement the changes by publishing the new methodology in an EPA report, which we expect to submit to the RAC for final review. The revised methodology could then be applied to update the cancer risk coefficients for over 800 radionuclides that are published in EPA's Federal Guidance Report 13. (author)

  19. Neural Network-Based Receiver in Band-Limited Communication System with MPPSK Modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zixin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As a type of the spectrally efficient modulation, the m-ary phase position shift keying (MPPSK has been considered to meet the increasing spectrum requirement in the future wireless system. To limit the signal bandwidth and cancel the out-band interference the band-pass filters are used, which introduce the waveform distortion and inter-symbol interference (ISI. Therefore, a single hidden-layer neural network (NN-based receiver is proposed to jointly equalize and demodulate the received signal. The impulse response of the system is static and the network parameters can be obtained after off-line training. The number of the hidden nodes is also determined through simulations. Simulation results show that the NN-based receiver works well in the communication system with different allocated bandwidths. By observing the modified confusion matrix, the false symbol decision is relevant to modulation index, waveform distortions and the ISI.

  20. The Limits of Logic-Based Inherent Safety of Social Robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Martin Mose

    2017-01-01

    Social robots can reason and act while taking into accountsocial and cultural structures, for instance by complying withsocial or ethical norms or values. As social robots are likely to becomemore common and advanced and thus likely to interact withhuman beings in increasingly complex situations......-based safety for ethical robots is shown. Afterwards,an empirical study is used to show that there is a clash betweendeontic reasoning and most formal deontic logics. I give anexample as to how this clash can cause problems in human-robot interaction.I conclude that deontic logics closer to natural...... languagereasoning are needed and that logic only should play a limited partin the overall safety architecture of a social robot, which should alsobe based on other principles of safe design....

  1. Methods of Optimisation of the Structure of the Dealing Bank with a Limited Base of Counter-Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novak Sergіy M.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article considers methods of assessment of optimal parameters of the dealing bank service with a limited base of counter-agents. The methods are based on the mathematical model of micro-structure of the inter-bank currency market. The key parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing service within the framework of the model are: number of authorised traders, contingent of counter-agents, quotation policy, main parameters of the currency market – spread and volatility of quotations and the resulting indicators of efficiency of the dealing service – profit and probability of breakeven operation. The methods allow identification of optimal parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing bank service based on indicators of dynamics of currency risks and market environment of the bank. On the basis of the developed mathematical model the article develops methods of planning calculations of parameters of the infrastructure of the dealing bank service, which are required for ensuring a necessary level of efficiency with set parameters of the currency market. Application of the said methods gives a possibility to assess indicators of operation of the bank’s front office depending on its scale.

  2. Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floyd, S.D.

    1996-12-01

    Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

  3. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  4. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  5. Beyond the rhetoric of problem-based learning: emancipatory limits and links with andragogy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milligan, F

    1999-10-01

    Problem-based learning (PBL), sometimes referred to as enquiry-based learning, is an approach to education that has gained increasing usage within health care in recent years. Its origins very much lie within medical education. The bulk of literature on PBL is optimistic about its potential, especially in relation to nurse education. It is argued here that the benefits of PBL are that it moves toward student-centred education and process-oriented methods that have been taking place for at least 16 years. There are clear links with andragogy although this is not always acknowledged, but the potential move away from emancipatory education inherent in PBL if used without reflection, is inconsistent with andragogy. This article takes a more critical view of the concept and argues that there are significant limits which need to be considered carefully. Apart from the possible move away from the emancipatory aims of education, there is commonly an implicit support of the medical model within PBL which is inappropriate at a time when the limits of medicine are becoming increasingly clear. It is concluded that further debate and research on the approach is necessary, but that as a facilitative strategy PBL does hold some promise. However, it would be inappropriate to use it as a curriculum model if only because it lacks the diversity required of a postmodern curriculum and would not respond effectively to differing student learning styles.

  6. Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver J Brady

    Full Text Available Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status.A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence.The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

  7. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  8. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  9. Accounting for failure: risk-based regulation and the problems of ensuring healthcare quality in the NHS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaussier, Anne-Laure; Demeritt, David; Griffiths, Alex; Rothstein, Henry

    2016-05-18

    In this paper, we examine why risk-based policy instruments have failed to improve the proportionality, effectiveness, and legitimacy of healthcare quality regulation in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Rather than trying to prevent all possible harms, risk-based approaches promise to rationalise and manage the inevitable limits of what regulation can hope to achieve by focusing regulatory standard-setting and enforcement activity on the highest priority risks, as determined through formal assessments of their probability and consequences. As such, risk-based approaches have been enthusiastically adopted by healthcare quality regulators over the last decade. However, by drawing on historical policy analysis and in-depth interviews with 15 high-level UK informants in 2013-2015, we identify a series of practical problems in using risk-based policy instruments for defining, assessing, and ensuring compliance with healthcare quality standards. Based on our analysis, we go on to consider why, despite a succession of failures, healthcare regulators remain committed to developing and using risk-based approaches. We conclude by identifying several preconditions for successful risk-based regulation: goals must be clear and trade-offs between them amenable to agreement; regulators must be able to reliably assess the probability and consequences of adverse outcomes; regulators must have a range of enforcement tools that can be deployed in proportion to risk; and there must be political tolerance for adverse outcomes.

  10. Television viewing time as a risk factor for frailty and functional limitations in older adults: results from 2 European prospective cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Esquinas, Esther; Andrade, Elena; Martínez-Gómez, David; Caballero, Francisco Félix; López-García, Esther; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

    2017-04-26

    Sedentariness is an important risk factor for poor health. The main objective of this work was to examine the prospective association between television viewing time and indicators of physical function, mobility, agility, and frailty. Data came from two independent cohorts of community-dwelling older adults: the Seniors-ENRICA (n = 2392, 3.5 year follow-up), and the ELSA (n = 3989, 3.9 year follow-up). At baseline, television viewing and other sedentary behaviors were ascertained using interviewer-administered questionnaires. In the Seniors-ENRICA cohort overall physical function at baseline and follow-up was assessed using the physical component summary (PCS) of the SF-12 Health Survey. Measures for incident mobility and agility limitations in both cohorts were based on standardized questions, and incident frailty was measured with the Fried criteria. Analyses were adjusted for the main confounders, including physical activity at baseline. Results across cohorts were pooled using a random effects model. Lower (worse) scores in the PCS were observed among those in the highest (vs. the lowest) tertile of television viewing time (b-coefficient:-1.66; 95% confidence interval:-2.81,-0.52; p-trend = 0.01). Moreover, the pooled odds ratios (95% CIs) for mobility limitations for the second and third (vs. the lowest) tertile of television viewing were 1.00 (0.84, 1.20) and 1.17 (1.00, 1.38); p-trend = 0.12, respectively. The corresponding results for agility limitations were 1.18 (0.97, 1.44) and 1.25 (1.03, 1.51); p-trend = 0.02. Results for incident frailty were 1.10 (0.80, 1.51) and 1.47 (1.09, 1.97); p-trend = 0.03. No association between other types of sedentary behavior (time seated at the computer, while commuting, lying in the sun, listening to music/reading, internet use) and risk of functional limitations was found. Among older adults, longer television viewing time is prospectively associated with limitations in physical function

  11. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  12. Risk-based prioritization at Hanford Nuclear Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Mosely, M.T.

    1995-11-01

    This paper describes the method used to incorporate risk-based decision making into the Hanford resource allocation process. This method, the Revised Priority Planning Grid, is used as a tool to calculate benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios for comparison of environmental cleanup activities. The tool is based on Hanford Site objectives. Benefits are determined by estimating the impact on those objectives resulting from funding specific environmental management activities. Impacts are also a function of the weights associated with the objectives. These weights in the Revised Priority Planning Grid reflect US Development of Energy management values, which were obtained through a formal value-elicitation process. With modification to the objectives and weights, the Revised Priority Planning Grid could be used in different situations. By factoring in environmental, safety, and health risk and assigning higher scores to those activities that provide the most benefit, the Revised Priority Planning Grid is a reproducible, scientific way of scoring competing activities or interests

  13. Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

    2018-04-01

    Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  14. Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  15. Limited-angle tomography for analyzer-based phase-contrast x-ray imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majidi, Keivan; Wernick, Miles N; Brankov, Jovan G; Li, Jun; Muehleman, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Multiple-image radiography (MIR) is an analyzer-based phase-contrast x-ray imaging method, which is emerging as a potential alternative to conventional radiography. MIR simultaneously generates three planar parametric images containing information about scattering, refraction and attenuation properties of the object. The MIR planar images are linear tomographic projections of the corresponding object properties, which allows reconstruction of volumetric images using computed tomography (CT) methods. However, when acquiring a full range of linear projections around the tissue of interest is not feasible or the scanning time is limited, limited-angle tomography techniques can be used to reconstruct these volumetric images near the central plane, which is the plane that contains the pivot point of the tomographic movement. In this work, we use computer simulations to explore the applicability of limited-angle tomography to MIR. We also investigate the accuracy of reconstructions as a function of number of tomographic angles for a fixed total radiation exposure. We use this function to find an optimal range of angles over which data should be acquired for limited-angle tomography MIR (LAT-MIR). Next, we apply the LAT-MIR technique to experimentally acquired MIR projections obtained in a cadaveric human thumb study. We compare the reconstructed slices near the central plane to the same slices reconstructed by CT-MIR using the full angular view around the object. Finally, we perform a task-based evaluation of LAT-MIR performance for different numbers of angular views, and use template matching to detect cartilage in the refraction image near the central plane. We use the signal-to-noise ratio of this test as the detectability metric to investigate an optimum range of tomographic angles for detecting soft tissues in LAT-MIR. Both results show that there is an optimum range of angular view for data acquisition where LAT-MIR yields the best performance, comparable to CT

  16. Limited-angle tomography for analyzer-based phase-contrast x-ray imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majidi, Keivan; Wernick, Miles N.; Li, Jun; Muehleman, Carol; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2014-07-01

    Multiple-image radiography (MIR) is an analyzer-based phase-contrast x-ray imaging method, which is emerging as a potential alternative to conventional radiography. MIR simultaneously generates three planar parametric images containing information about scattering, refraction and attenuation properties of the object. The MIR planar images are linear tomographic projections of the corresponding object properties, which allows reconstruction of volumetric images using computed tomography (CT) methods. However, when acquiring a full range of linear projections around the tissue of interest is not feasible or the scanning time is limited, limited-angle tomography techniques can be used to reconstruct these volumetric images near the central plane, which is the plane that contains the pivot point of the tomographic movement. In this work, we use computer simulations to explore the applicability of limited-angle tomography to MIR. We also investigate the accuracy of reconstructions as a function of number of tomographic angles for a fixed total radiation exposure. We use this function to find an optimal range of angles over which data should be acquired for limited-angle tomography MIR (LAT-MIR). Next, we apply the LAT-MIR technique to experimentally acquired MIR projections obtained in a cadaveric human thumb study. We compare the reconstructed slices near the central plane to the same slices reconstructed by CT-MIR using the full angular view around the object. Finally, we perform a task-based evaluation of LAT-MIR performance for different numbers of angular views, and use template matching to detect cartilage in the refraction image near the central plane. We use the signal-to-noise ratio of this test as the detectability metric to investigate an optimum range of tomographic angles for detecting soft tissues in LAT-MIR. Both results show that there is an optimum range of angular view for data acquisition where LAT-MIR yields the best performance, comparable to CT

  17. Limits on the Efficiency of Event-Based Algorithms for Monte Carlo Neutron Transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romano, Paul K.; Siegel, Andrew R.

    2017-04-16

    The traditional form of parallelism in Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, wherein each individual particle history is considered a unit of work, does not lend itself well to data-level parallelism. Event-based algorithms, which were originally used for simulations on vector processors, may offer a path toward better utilizing data-level parallelism in modern computer architectures. In this study, a simple model is developed for estimating the efficiency of the event-based particle transport algorithm under two sets of assumptions. Data collected from simulations of four reactor problems using OpenMC was then used in conjunction with the models to calculate the speedup due to vectorization as a function of two parameters: the size of the particle bank and the vector width. When each event type is assumed to have constant execution time, the achievable speedup is directly related to the particle bank size. We observed that the bank size generally needs to be at least 20 times greater than vector size in order to achieve vector efficiency greater than 90%. When the execution times for events are allowed to vary, however, the vector speedup is also limited by differences in execution time for events being carried out in a single event-iteration. For some problems, this implies that vector effciencies over 50% may not be attainable. While there are many factors impacting performance of an event-based algorithm that are not captured by our model, it nevertheless provides insights into factors that may be limiting in a real implementation.

  18. A risk-based auditing process for pharmaceutical manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Susan; Dana, Bob; Rangavajhula, Vijaya; Rönninger, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share ideas on developing a risk-based model for the scheduling of audits (both internal and external). Audits are a key element of a manufacturer's quality system and provide an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's or the supplier/vendor's compliance status. Suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches are discussed in the article. Pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to establish and implement a quality system. The quality system is an organizational structure defining responsibilities, procedures, processes, and resources that the manufacturer has established to ensure quality throughout the manufacturing process. Audits are a component of the manufacturer's quality system and provide a systematic and an independent means of evaluating the manufacturer's overall quality system and compliance status. Audits are performed at defined intervals for a specified duration. The intention of the audit process is to focus on key areas within the quality system and may not cover all relevant areas during each audit. In this article, the authors provide suggestions for risk-based scheduling approaches to aid pharmaceutical manufacturers in identifying the key focus areas for an audit.

  19. 75 FR 70738 - Gulf Oil Limited Partnership; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-18

    ... Limited Partnership; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... proceeding of Gulf Oil Limited Partnership's application for market-based rate authority, with an... CFR Part 34, of future issuances of securities and assumptions of liability. Any person desiring to...

  20. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations

  1. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Vesely, W.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations.

  2. Risk-based fault detection using Self-Organizing Map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Garaniya, Vikram

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of modern systems is increasing rapidly and the dominating relationships among system variables have become highly non-linear. This results in difficulty in the identification of a system's operating states. In turn, this difficulty affects the sensitivity of fault detection and imposes a challenge on ensuring the safety of operation. In recent years, Self-Organizing Maps has gained popularity in system monitoring as a robust non-linear dimensionality reduction tool. Self-Organizing Map is able to capture non-linear variations of the system. Therefore, it is sensitive to the change of a system's states leading to early detection of fault. In this paper, a new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect and assess the risk of fault. In addition, probabilistic analysis is applied to characterize the risk of fault into different levels according to the hazard potential to enable a refined monitoring of the system. The proposed approach is applied on two experimental systems. The results from both systems have shown high sensitivity of the proposed approach in detecting and identifying the root cause of faults. The refined monitoring facilitates the determination of the risk of fault and early deployment of remedial actions and safety measures to minimize the potential impact of fault. - Highlights: • A new approach based on Self-Organizing Map is proposed to detect faults. • Integration of fault detection with risk assessment methodology. • Fault risk characterization into different levels to enable focused system monitoring

  3. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  4. Team based risk assessment in the South African mining industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, J.; Ashworth, G.; Webger, S.; Protheroe, B. [CSIR, Auckland Park (South Africa). MineRisk Africa Division

    1996-12-31

    Improved health and safety for the large mining workforce in South Africa is a priority. Risk Assessments will be mandatory following the promulgation of the new health and safety act, due out in mid 1996. There is also a strong demand for employee organizations for participation in regulating the work process, particularly in the aspects of health and safety. The concept of system safety is that safe production is achieved through four ingredients, being, competent and trained personnel working according to appropriate standard operating practices using fit-for-purpose equipment in a well-controlled environment. A deficiency in any one of these areas will lead to an increased chance of operating problems and consequently accidents. The Mine Risk processes for risk assessment and management provide a mechanism for adopting this concept in practical mining operations; they provide a framework for identifying the root cause of safety problems as a basis for defining changes which will contribute significantly towards improving safety. The Mine Risk processes are applied practively and systematically to identify hazards and evaluate the magnitude of the associated risk in a defined aspect of the mining operation using a participative team based approach. The team, whose membership consists of highly experienced personnel drawn from all relevant departments and from positions ranging from manager to operator, then determines practical controls to reduce priority risks to acceptable levels. Team building is a natural product of this process, and should lead to higher productivity levels which is also a cause for concern. By using this process, a number of objectives of all the stakeholders in the South African Mining industry are addressed. 3 tabs.

  5. Classification of Airflow Limitation Based on z-Score Underestimates Mortality in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Elena; Prats, Eva; Casitas, Raquel; Galera, Raúl; Pardo, Paloma; Gavilán, Adelaida; Martínez-Cerón, Elisabet; Cubillos-Zapata, Carolina; Del Peso, Luis; García-Río, Francisco

    2017-08-01

    Global Lung Function Initiative recommends reporting lung function measures as z-score, and a classification of airflow limitation (AL) based on this parameter has recently been proposed. To evaluate the prognostic capacity of the AL classifications based on z-score or percentage predicted of FEV 1 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A cohort of 2,614 patients with COPD recruited outside the hospital setting was examined after a mean (± SD) of 57 ± 13 months of follow-up, totaling 10,322 person-years. All-cause mortality was analyzed, evaluating the predictive capacity of several AL staging systems. Based on Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines, 461 patients (17.6%) had mild, 1,452 (55.5%) moderate, 590 (22.6%) severe, and 111 (4.2%) very severe AL. According to z-score classification, 66.3% of patients remained with the same severity, whereas 23.7% worsened and 10.0% improved. Unlike other staging systems, patients with severe AL according to z-score had higher mortality than those with very severe AL (increase of risk by 5.2 and 3.9 times compared with mild AL, respectively). The predictive capacity for 5-year survival was slightly higher for FEV 1 expressed as percentage of predicted than as z-score (area under the curve: 0.714-0.760 vs. 0.649-0.708, respectively). A severity-dependent relationship between AL grades by z-score and mortality was only detected in patients younger than age 60 years. In patients with COPD, the AL classification based on z-score predicts worse mortality than those based on percentage of predicted. It is possible that the z-score underestimates AL severity in patients older than 60 years of age with severe functional impairment.

  6. Risk-based waste clearance concept for the D ampersand D program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Bhattacharyya, S.K.

    1996-01-01

    Large amounts of radioactively contaminated wastes are expected to result from decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities at nuclear facilities. Many of the waste materials, such as concrete rubble and scrap metals, are only slightly contaminated and can be recycled to minimize waste streams, resulting in substantial savings from reducing conventional waste disposal costs and recovering the values of the raw materials. For instance, a recent projection indicates that recycling an estimated 30 million tonnes of radioactive scrap metal (RSM) worldwide, having a corresponding recoverable value of about $10 billion to $20 billion, would avoid an estimated $5 billion in disposal costs. As an average heuristic, waste disposition constitutes ∼50% of total D ampersand D costs. There is thus a strong incentive to minimize the waste from D ampersand D activities. In the United States, no specific standards have been developed for the unrestricted release of bulk contaminated materials, although standards for the unrestricted release of radioactive surface contamination have existed for ∼20 yr. Materials are not commonly released because of the lack of risk-based justifications. Recent guidance from international bodies has established a basis for deriving risk-based release limits for radioactive materials. It is important, therefore, to evaluate the feasibility of recycling, because if it is feasible, risk-based release limits for the reusable materials will need to be established

  7. The limits of behaviour change theory: condom use and contexts of HIV risk in the Kolkata sex industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Catrin; Lambert, Helen

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses ethnographic data from a sex workers' HIV project in India to consider the appropriateness of individual, social/group and structural theories of health behaviour when applied to HIV-prevention initiatives. Existing theories are critiqued for their modernist representation of behaviour as determined by individual rational decision-making processes or by external structural forces, with inadequate recognition being given to the roles that human agency, subjective meaning and local context play in everyday actions. Analysis of sex workers' accounts of their sexual practices suggests that existing theories of health behaviour can only partially account for sexual behaviour change retrospectively and that they have limited predictive value with respect to the outcomes of individual sexual encounters. Our data show that these outcomes were, in fact, highly context dependent, while possibilities for action were ultimately strongly constrained by structural forces. Findings suggest that interventions need to adopt an integrated, structurally-oriented approach for promoting safer sexual practices in sex work settings. Recognising that no one model of health behaviour is likely to be adequate in explaining or predicting behaviour change encourages responsiveness to local people's agency, recognises the different (health- and non-health-related) registers of risk with which people operate and encourages flexibility according to local contingencies and contexts.

  8. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

    2015-01-01

    We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

  9. Limited evidence on persistence with anticoagulants, and its effect on the risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism: a systematic review of observational studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vora P

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Pareen Vora, Montse Soriano-Gabarró, Kiliana Suzart, Gunnar Persson Brobert Department of Epidemiology, Bayer Pharma AG, Berlin, Germany Purpose: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE recurrence is high following an initial VTE event, and it persists over time. This recurrence risk decreases rapidly after starting with anticoagulation treatment and reduces by ~80%–90% with prolonged anticoagulation. Nonpersistence with anticoagulants could lead to increased risk of VTE recurrence. This systematic review aimed to estimate persistence at 3, 6, and 12 months with anticoagulants in patients with VTE, and to evaluate the risk of VTE recurrence in nonpersistent patients.Methods: PubMed and Embase® were searched up to May 3, 2014 and the search results updated to May 31, 2015. Studies involving patients with VTE aged ≥18 years, treatment with anticoagulants intended for at least 3 months or more, and reporting data for persistence were included. Proportions were transformed using Freeman–Tukey double arcsine transformation and pooled using the DerSimonian–Laird random-effects approach.Results: In total, 12 observational studies (7/12 conference abstracts were included in the review. All 12 studies either reported or provided data for persistence. The total number of patients meta-analyzed to estimate persistence at 3, 6, and 12 months was 71,969 patients, 58,940 patients, and 68,235 patients, respectively. The estimated persistence for 3, 6, and 12 months of therapy was 83% (95% confidence interval [CI], 78–87; I2=99.3%, 62% (95% CI, 58–66; I2=98.1%, and 31% (95% CI, 22–40; I2=99.8%, respectively. Only two studies reported the risk of VTE recurrence based on nonpersistence – one at 3 months and the other at 12 months.Conclusion: Limited evidence showed that persistence was suboptimal with an estimated 17% patients being nonpersistent with anticoagulants in the crucial first 3 months. Persistence declined over 6 and 12 months

  10. Caveats and limitations of plate reader-based high-throughput kinetic measurements of intracellular calcium levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heusinkveld, Harm J.; Westerink, Remco H.S.

    2011-01-01

    Calcium plays a crucial role in virtually all cellular processes, including neurotransmission. The intracellular Ca 2+ concentration ([Ca 2+ ] i ) is therefore an important readout in neurotoxicological and neuropharmacological studies. Consequently, there is an increasing demand for high-throughput measurements of [Ca 2+ ] i , e.g. using multi-well microplate readers, in hazard characterization, human risk assessment and drug development. However, changes in [Ca 2+ ] i are highly dynamic, thereby creating challenges for high-throughput measurements. Nonetheless, several protocols are now available for real-time kinetic measurement of [Ca 2+ ] i in plate reader systems, though the results of such plate reader-based measurements have been questioned. In view of the increasing use of plate reader systems for measurements of [Ca 2+ ] i a careful evaluation of current technologies is warranted. We therefore performed an extensive set of experiments, using two cell lines (PC12 and B35) and two fluorescent calcium-sensitive dyes (Fluo-4 and Fura-2), for comparison of a linear plate reader system with single cell fluorescence microscopy. Our data demonstrate that the use of plate reader systems for high-throughput real-time kinetic measurements of [Ca 2+ ] i is associated with many pitfalls and limitations, including erroneous sustained increases in fluorescence, limited sensitivity and lack of single cell resolution. Additionally, our data demonstrate that probenecid, which is often used to prevent dye leakage, effectively inhibits the depolarization-evoked increase in [Ca 2+ ] i . Overall, the data indicate that the use of current plate reader-based strategies for high-throughput real-time kinetic measurements of [Ca 2+ ] i is associated with caveats and limitations that require further investigation. - Research highlights: → The use of plate readers for high-throughput screening of intracellular Ca 2+ is associated with many pitfalls and limitations. → Single cell

  11. Biogeochemical provinces in the global ocean based on phytoplankton growth limitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashioka, T.; Hirata, T.; Aita, M. N.; Chiba, S.

    2016-02-01

    The biogeochemical province is one of the useful concepts for the comprehensive understanding of regional differences of the marine ecosystem. Various biogeochemical provinces for lower-trophic level ecosystem have been proposed using a similarity-based classification of seasonal variations of chl-a concentration typified by Longhurst 1995 and 2006. Such categorizations well capture the regional differences of seasonality as "total phytoplankton". However, background biogeochemical mechanism to characterize the province boundary is not clear. Namely, the dominant phytoplankton group is different among regions and seasons, and their physiological characteristics are significantly different among groups. Recently some pieces of new biogeochemical information are available. One is an estimation of phytoplankton community structure from satellite observation, and it makes clear the key phytoplankton type in each region. Another is an estimation of limitation factors for phytoplankton growth (e.g., nutrients, temperature, light) in each region from modeling studies. In this study, we propose new biogeochemical provinces as a combination between the dominance of phytoplankton (i.e., diatoms, nano-, pico-phytoplankton or coexistence of two/three types) and their growth limitation factors (particularly we focused on nutrient limitation; N, P, Si or Fe). In this combination, we classified the global ocean into 23 biogeochemical provinces. The result suggests that even if the same type of phytoplankton dominates, the background mechanism could be different among regions. On the contrary, even if the regions geographically separate, the background mechanism could be similar among regions. This is important to understand that region/boundary does respond to environmental change. This biogeochemical province is useful for identification of key areas for future observation.

  12. Potential Occupational Exposures and Health Risks Associated with Biomass-Based Power Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Annette C.; Campleman, Sharan L.; Long, Christopher M.; Peterson, Michael K.; Weatherstone, Susan; Quick, Will; Lewis, Ari

    2015-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being used for power generation; however, assessment of potential occupational health and safety (OH&S) concerns related to usage of biomass fuels in combustion-based generation remains limited. We reviewed the available literature on known and potential OH&S issues associated with biomass-based fuel usage for electricity generation at the utility scale. We considered three potential exposure scenarios—pre-combustion exposure to material associated with the fuel, exposure to combustion products, and post-combustion exposure to ash and residues. Testing of dust, fungal and bacterial levels at two power stations was also undertaken. Results indicated that dust concentrations within biomass plants can be extremely variable, with peak levels in some areas exceeding occupational exposure limits for wood dust and general inhalable dust. Fungal spore types, identified as common environmental species, were higher than in outdoor air. Our review suggests that pre-combustion risks, including bioaerosols and biogenic organics, should be considered further. Combustion and post-combustion risks appear similar to current fossil-based combustion. In light of limited available information, additional studies at power plants utilizing a variety of technologies and biomass fuels are recommended. PMID:26206568

  13. Potential Occupational Exposures and Health Risks Associated with Biomass-Based Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette C. Rohr

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Biomass is increasingly being used for power generation; however, assessment of potential occupational health and safety (OH&S concerns related to usage of biomass fuels in combustion-based generation remains limited. We reviewed the available literature on known and potential OH&S issues associated with biomass-based fuel usage for electricity generation at the utility scale. We considered three potential exposure scenarios—pre-combustion exposure to material associated with the fuel, exposure to combustion products, and post-combustion exposure to ash and residues. Testing of dust, fungal and bacterial levels at two power stations was also undertaken. Results indicated that dust concentrations within biomass plants can be extremely variable, with peak levels in some areas exceeding occupational exposure limits for wood dust and general inhalable dust. Fungal spore types, identified as common environmental species, were higher than in outdoor air. Our review suggests that pre-combustion risks, including bioaerosols and biogenic organics, should be considered further. Combustion and post-combustion risks appear similar to current fossil-based combustion. In light of limited available information, additional studies at power plants utilizing a variety of technologies and biomass fuels are recommended.

  14. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  15. Electronic white cane with GPS radar-based concept as blind mobility enhancement without distance limitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halim, Suharsono; Handafiah, Finna; Aprilliyani, Ria; Udhiarto, Arief

    2018-02-01

    The Indonesian Ministry of Social Affairs, in July 2012, informed that the number of blind in Indonesia has been the largest among to the people with other disabilities. The most common tools utilized to help the blind was a conventional cane which has limited features and therefore it was difficult to be used as a mobilization tools. Moreover, the conventional cane cannot assist them or their family when the blind gets lost. In this research, we designed and implemented an electronic white cane with the concept of radar and global positioning system (GPS). The purpose of this research was to design and develop an electronic white cane which can enhance the mobility of the blind without distance coverage limitation. Utilizing ultrasonic sensors as a distance measurement and a servo motor as an actuator, the produced radar system is able to map an area with maximum distance and coverage angle of 5 meters and 180° respectively. The blind senses the obstacle around them from the vibration generated by five vibration motors. The vibration becomes more intense when the obstacle is detected closer. In addition, we implemented a GPS to monitor the blind's position and allow their family to find them easily when the blind need a help. Based on the tests performed, we have successfully developed an electronic white cane that can be a solution to improve the blind's mobility.

  16. Promoting physical activity among children and adolescents: the strengths and limitations of school-based approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Michael; Okely, Anthony

    2005-04-01

    Paediatric overweight and obesity is recognised as one of Australia's most significant health problems and effective approaches to increasing physical activity and reducing energy consumption are being sought urgently. Every potential approach and setting should be subjected to critical review in an attempt to maximise the impact of policy and program initiatives. This paper identifies the strengths and limitations of schools as a setting for promoting physical activity. The strengths are: most children and adolescents attend school; most young people are likely to see teachers as credible sources of information; schools provide access to the facilities, infrastructure and support required for physical activity; and schools are the workplace of skilled educators. Potential limitations are: those students who like school the least are the most likely to engage in health-compromising behaviours and the least likely to be influenced by school-based programs; there are about 20 more hours per week available for physical activity outside schools hours than during school hours; enormous demands are already being made on schools; many primary school teachers have low levels of perceived competence in teaching physical education and fundamental movement skills; and opportunities for being active at school may not be consistent with how and when students prefer to be active.

  17. Mitigation of commutation failures in LCC–HVDC systems based on superconducting fault current limiters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jong-Geon; Khan, Umer Amir; Lee, Ho-Yun; Lim, Sung-Woo; Lee, Bang-Wook

    2016-01-01

    Commutation failure in line commutated converter based HVDC systems cause severe damages on the entire power grid system. For LCC–HVDC, thyristor valves are turned on by a firing signal but turn off control is governed by the external applied AC voltage from surrounding network. When the fault occurs in AC system, turn-off control of thyristor valves is unavailable due to the voltage collapse of point of common coupling (PCC), which causes the commutation failure in LCC–HVDC link. Due to the commutation failure, the power transfer interruption, dc voltage drop and severe voltage fluctuation in the AC system could be occurred. In a severe situation, it might cause the protection system to block the valves. In this paper, as a solution to prevent the voltage collapse on PCC and to limit the fault current, the application study of resistive superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) on LCC–HVDC grid system was performed with mathematical and simulation analyses. The simulation model was designed by Matlab/Simulink considering Haenam-Jeju HVDC power grid in Korea which includes conventional AC system and onshore wind farm and resistive SFCL model. From the result, it was observed that the application of SFCL on LCC–HVDC system is an effective solution to mitigate the commutation failure. And then the process to determine optimum quench resistance of SFCL which enables the recovery of commutation failure was deeply investigated.

  18. Are there limits to growth? The need for a transition to a solar-based economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovejoy, D.

    1996-01-01

    The idea of limits to growth has, understandably, achieved notoriety since the days of Malthus and, more recently, the Club of Rome. However, there must be some limits to the ability of the earth to sustain a growing population. Fortunately, population models suggest that the world's population will probably level out at about two to three times the present numbers over the next hundred years. The question is whether the earth's resources are sufficient to sustain that population at a high standard of living for all. In this the key issue is energy. It is clear that present trends in energy consumption, especially oil, cannot be sustained much longer. Regardless of this, however, prudence demands a drastic reduction in fossil fuel consumption, in view of the possibility of global warming. It can be shown that, combined with greatly improved energy efficiency, a transition to a solar (renewable) energy based economy, capable of sustaining the anticipated growth in the world economy, is possible, but the constraints are extremely tight. (author). 10 refs

  19. Remuneration of limited partners with regard to the base for retirement pension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milena Otavová

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The papes deals with possible forms of the remuneration of limited partner. There are defined differences between types of his incomes (remuneration such as dividend, remuneration and wage, in relation to czech tax law. With the aid of calculation was determined their combination, both in light of maximum his after-payment-tax income with the inclusion of payments of social and medical insurence, and with respect to computing base for his future retirement pension. The comparison of the forms of the remuneration of limited partner was performed by using the model situations. Mo­dels were configured to represent the possible ways of the remuneration of the partner and also with regard to the social and health insurance. These models highlight the advantages of the different options in terms of the tax burden, partner’s net income and the pension paid in the future. Evalutes haw the forms and amount of incomes influence the amount of the old-age pension. Those models were the basis for the determining the optimum combination of the payment of the profit sharing and the wage of the Partner.

  20. Mitigation of commutation failures in LCC–HVDC systems based on superconducting fault current limiters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong-Geon; Khan, Umer Amir; Lee, Ho-Yun; Lim, Sung-Woo; Lee, Bang-Wook, E-mail: bangwook@hanyang.ac.kr

    2016-11-15

    Commutation failure in line commutated converter based HVDC systems cause severe damages on the entire power grid system. For LCC–HVDC, thyristor valves are turned on by a firing signal but turn off control is governed by the external applied AC voltage from surrounding network. When the fault occurs in AC system, turn-off control of thyristor valves is unavailable due to the voltage collapse of point of common coupling (PCC), which causes the commutation failure in LCC–HVDC link. Due to the commutation failure, the power transfer interruption, dc voltage drop and severe voltage fluctuation in the AC system could be occurred. In a severe situation, it might cause the protection system to block the valves. In this paper, as a solution to prevent the voltage collapse on PCC and to limit the fault current, the application study of resistive superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) on LCC–HVDC grid system was performed with mathematical and simulation analyses. The simulation model was designed by Matlab/Simulink considering Haenam-Jeju HVDC power grid in Korea which includes conventional AC system and onshore wind farm and resistive SFCL model. From the result, it was observed that the application of SFCL on LCC–HVDC system is an effective solution to mitigate the commutation failure. And then the process to determine optimum quench resistance of SFCL which enables the recovery of commutation failure was deeply investigated.