WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk based approach

  1. Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

    1995-01-01

    The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

  2. Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1987-01-01

    Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

  3. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  4. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  5. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowska Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk assessment and response to the hazards of road crashes involving pedestrians. Key to the method are tools supporting pedestrian safety management. According to the risk management approach, the tools can be divided into two groups: tools supporting risk assessment and tools supporting risk response. In the paper attention is paid to selected tools supporting risk assessment, with particular emphasis on the methods for estimating forecasted pedestrian safety measures (at strategic, national and regional level and identification of particularly dangerous locations in terms of pedestrian safety at tactical (regional and local and operational level. The proposed pedestrian safety management methods and tools can support road administration in making rational decisions in terms of road safety, safety of road infrastructure, crash elimination measures or reducing the consequences suffered by road users (particularly pedestrians as a result of road crashes.

  7. Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

    2018-04-01

    Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  8. Demonstration of risk-based approaches to nuclear plant regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Darling, S.S.; Oddo, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes generic technical support EPRI is providing to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of risk-based regulations (RBR). A risk-based regulatory approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate safety resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. This approach will reduce O ampersand M costs, and also improve nuclear plant safety. In order to enhance industry, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and public confidence in RBR, three things need to be shown: (1) manpower/resource savings are significant for both NRC and industry; (2) the process is doable in a reasonable amount of time; and (3) the process, if uniformly applied, results in demonstrably cheaper power and safer plants. In 1992, EPRI performed a qualitative study of the key RBR issues contributing to high O ampersand M costs. The results are given on Table 1. This study is being followed up by an in-depth quantitative cost/benefit study to focus technical work on producing guidelines/procedures for licensing submittals to NRC. The guidelines/procedures necessarily will be developed from successful demonstration projects such as the Fitzpatrick pilot plant study proposed by the New York Power Authority and other generic applications. This paper presents three examples: two motor operated valve projects performed by QUADREX Energy Services Corporation working with utilities in responding to NRC Generic Letter 89-10, and a third project working with Yankee Atomic Electric Company on service water systems at a plant in its service system. These demonstration projects aim to show the following: (1) the relative ease of putting together a technical case based on RBR concepts; (2) clarity in differentiating the various risk trade-offs, and in communicating overall reductions in risk with NRC; and (3) improved prioritization of NRC directives

  9. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  10. A risk-based approach to prioritize underground storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chidambariah, V.; Travis, C.C.; Trabalka, J.R.; Thomas, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a risk-based approach for rapid prioritization of low level liquid radioactive waste underground storage tanks (LLLW USTs) for possible interim corrective measures and/or ultimate closure. The ranking of LLLW USTs is needed to ensure that tanks with the greatest potential for adverse impact on the environment and human health receive top priority for further evaluation and remediation. Wastes from the LLLW USTs at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were pumped out at the time the tanks were removed from service. The residual liquids and sludge contain a mixture of radionuclides and chemicals. Contaminants of concern that were identified in the liquid phase of the inactive LLLW USTs include, the radionuclides, 9O Sr, 137 Cs and 233 U and the chemicals, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, methyl ethyl ketone, mercury, lead and chromium. The risk-based approach for prioritization of the LLLW USTs is based upon three major criteria: (1) leaking characteristics of the tank; (2) location of the tanks; and (3) toxic potential of the tank contents

  11. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

  12. New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

  13. A risk-based approach to scheduling audits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rönninger, Stephan; Holmes, Malcolm

    2009-01-01

    The manufacture and supply of pharmaceutical products can be a very complex operation. Companies may purchase a wide variety of materials, from active pharmaceutical ingredients to packaging materials, from "in company" suppliers or from third parties. They may also purchase or contract a number of services such as analysis, data management, audit, among others. It is very important that these materials and services are of the requisite quality in order that patient safety and company reputation are adequately protected. Such quality requirements are ongoing throughout the product life cycle. In recent years, assurance of quality has been derived via audit of the supplier or service provider and by using periodic audits, for example, annually or at least once every 5 years. In the past, companies may have used an audit only for what they considered to be "key" materials or services and used testing on receipt, for example, as their quality assurance measure for "less important" supplies. Such approaches changed as a result of pressure from both internal sources and regulators to the time-driven audit for all suppliers and service providers. Companies recognised that eventually they would be responsible for the quality of the supplied product or service and audit, although providing only a "snapshot in time" seemed a convenient way of demonstrating that they were meeting their obligations. Problems, however, still occur with the supplied product or service and will usually be more frequent from certain suppliers. Additionally, some third-party suppliers will no longer accept routine audits from individual companies, as the overall audit load can exceed one external audit per working day. Consequently a different model is needed for assessing supplier quality. This paper presents a risk-based approach to creating an audit plan and for scheduling the frequency and depth of such audits. The approach is based on the principles and process of the Quality Risk Management

  14. Application of probabilistic risk based optimization approaches in environmental restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldammer, W.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents a general approach to site-specific risk assessments and optimization procedures. In order to account for uncertainties in the assessment of the current situation and future developments, optimization parameters are treated as probabilistic distributions. The assessments are performed within the framework of a cost-benefit analysis. Radiation hazards and conventional risks are treated within an integrated approach. Special consideration is given to consequences of low probability events such as, earthquakes or major floods. Risks and financial costs are combined to an overall figure of detriment allowing one to distinguish between benefits of available reclamation options. The probabilistic analysis uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The paper demonstrates the applicability of this approach in aiding the reclamation planning using an example from the German reclamation program for uranium mining and milling sites

  15. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim

    2015-01-01

    action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health. Scope and approach The advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring the safety of food chemicals, allergens, ingredients and microorganisms were...

  16. A risk based approach for SSTO/TSTO comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1996-03-01

    An approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. Risk considerations are necessary since the transportation systems are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization. The approach considers the uncertainty of achievement of technology goals, effect that the achieved technology level will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of nonrecurring, recurring, and the present value of transportation system life cycle costs.

  17. A risk-based approach to flammable gas detector spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defriend, Stephen; Dejmek, Mark; Porter, Leisa; Deshotels, Bob; Natvig, Bernt

    2008-11-15

    Flammable gas detectors allow an operating company to address leaks before they become serious, by automatically alarming and by initiating isolation and safe venting. Without effective gas detection, there is very limited defense against a flammable gas leak developing into a fire or explosion that could cause loss of life or escalate to cascading failures of nearby vessels, piping, and equipment. While it is commonly recognized that some gas detectors are needed in a process plant containing flammable gas or volatile liquids, there is usually a question of how many are needed. The areas that need protection can be determined by dispersion modeling from potential leak sites. Within the areas that must be protected, the spacing of detectors (or alternatively, number of detectors) should be based on risk. Detector design can be characterized by spacing criteria, which is convenient for design - or alternatively by number of detectors, which is convenient for cost reporting. The factors that influence the risk are site-specific, including process conditions, chemical composition, number of potential leak sites, piping design standards, arrangement of plant equipment and structures, design of isolation and depressurization systems, and frequency of detector testing. Site-specific factors such as those just mentioned affect the size of flammable gas cloud that must be detected (within a specified probability) by the gas detection system. A probability of detection must be specified that gives a design with a tolerable risk of fires and explosions. To determine the optimum spacing of detectors, it is important to consider the probability that a detector will fail at some time and be inoperative until replaced or repaired. A cost-effective approach is based on the combined risk from a representative selection of leakage scenarios, rather than a worst-case evaluation. This means that probability and severity of leak consequences must be evaluated together. In marine and

  18. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  19. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    OpenAIRE

    Barlow, Susan M.; Boobis, Alan R.; Bridges, Jim; Cockburn, Andrew; Dekant, Wolfgang; Hepburn, Paul; Houben, Geert F.; König, Jürgen; Nauta, Maarten; Schuermans, Jeroen; Bánáti, Diána

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundFood legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management action. Risk-based approaches allow consideration of exposure in assessing whether there may be unacceptable risks to health.Scope and approachThe advantages and disadvantages of hazard- and risk-ba...

  20. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements.

  1. Menopause management: a cardiovascular risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, C J; Farrell, E

    2010-08-01

    Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) remains the gold standard for the management of menopausal symptoms; however, HRT use has declined due to concerns over possible adverse side-effects. Approaches to menopause management are continually being revised and these extend beyond the control of recognized menopausal symptoms to encompass wider aspects of menopausal women's health. Hypertension and associated cardiovascular risk are particularly important unmet needs in postmenopausal women, especially in the Asia-Pacific region which has a rapidly aging population and bears around half of the global burden of cardiovascular disease, two-thirds of which has been attributed to elevated blood pressure. As first point of contact for women with menopausal symptoms, gynecologists play a gatekeeper role in assessing women's health, providing appropriate lifestyle counseling, and, where appropriate, implementing treatment or referral to relevant specialists. This paper, with contributions by gynecologists and cardiologists from Asia Pacific and beyond, summarizes available evidence and provides a treatment algorithm that employs a flexible blood pressure classification strategy to assist physicians in their decision-making for the individualized management of menopausal symptoms in women with low, moderate and high cardiovascular risk, and also for women with diabetes. Individualized HRT according to cardiovascular risk may yield improvements in cardiovascular health, as well as managing menopausal symptoms.

  2. A risk-based approach to liquid effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, L.C.

    1995-10-01

    DOE Order 5400.1 identifies six objectives of a liquid effluent monitoring program. A strategy is proposed that meets these objective in one of two ways: (1) by showing that effluent concentrations are below concentration limits set by permits or are below concentrations that could cause environmental problems or (2) by showing that concentrations in effluent have not changed from a period when treatment processes were in control and there were no unplanned releases. The intensity of liquid effluent monitoring should be graded to the importance of the source being monitored. This can be accomplished by determining the risk posed by the source. A definition of risk is presented that defines risk in terms of the statistical probability of exceeding a release limit and the time available to recover from an exceedance of a release limit. Three examples are presented that show this approach to grading an effluent monitoring program can be implemented at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and will reduce monitoring requirements

  3. Use of traits-based bioassessment approaches in biomonitoring and ecological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den P.J.; Alexander, A.; Desrosiers, M.; Goedkoop, W.; Goethals, P.L.M.; Liess, M.; Dyer, S.

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the application of traits-based bioassessment approaches in retrospective bioassessment as well as in prospective ecological risk assessments in regulatory frameworks. Both approaches address the interaction between species and stressors and their consequences at different levels of

  4. Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

    2012-08-01

    Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

  5. The role of hazard- and risk-based approaches in ensuring food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barlow, S.M.; Boobis, A.R.; Bridges, J.; Cockburn, A.; Dekant, W.; Hepburn, P.; Houben, G.F.; König, J.; Nauta, M.J.; Schuermans, J.; Bánáti, D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Food legislation in the European Union and elsewhere includes both hazard- and risk-based approaches for ensuring safety. In hazard-based approaches, simply the presence of a potentially harmful agent at a detectable level in food is used as a basis for legislation and/or risk management

  6. Risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat: A comparison of two approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Jens Kirk; Tuominen, Pirkko

    2015-01-01

    Risk-based microbiological criteria can offer a tool to control Campylobacter in the broiler meat production chain. Recently two approaches have been applied to derive such criteria and to analyse their potential impact in terms of human health risk reduction: the risk-based version...

  7. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonova, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

  8. State-of-the-art risk-based approach to spill contingency planning and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt Etkin, Dagmar; Reilly, Timothy; French McCay, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes incorporating a comprehensive examination of spill risk into risk management and contingency planning, and applying state-of-the-art modeling tools to evaluate various alternatives for appropriate spill response measures and optimize protective responses. The approach allows spill contingency planners and decision-makers to determine the types of spill scenarios that may occur in a particular location or from a particular source and calculate the probability distribution of the various scenarios. The spill probability information is useful in assessing and putting into perspective the various costs options for spill control systems that will be recommended ultimately. Using advanced modeling tools helps in estimating the potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of each spill scenario based on location-specific factors over a range of stochastic possibilities, simulating spill scenarios and determining optimal responses and protection strategies. The benefits and costs of various response alternatives and variations in response time can be calculated and modeling tools for training and risk allocation/transfer purposes used.

  9. A risk-based approach to cleanup: Problems and pitfalls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anspaugh, L.

    1995-10-01

    This paper details information dealing with the meetings of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Topics discussed include: Radtest program to summarize all data on radiation doses resulting from nuclear weapons testing; current status of US cleanup strategies; development of new milestones for the project due to reduced budgets; health hazards; and risk reduction

  10. A Nonparametric Operational Risk Modeling Approach Based on Cornish-Fisher Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that the choice of severity distribution in loss distribution approach has a significant effect on the operational risk capital estimation. However, the usually used parametric approaches with predefined distribution assumption might be not able to fit the severity distribution accurately. The objective of this paper is to propose a nonparametric operational risk modeling approach based on Cornish-Fisher expansion. In this approach, the samples of severity are generated by Cornish-Fisher expansion and then used in the Monte Carlo simulation to sketch the annual operational loss distribution. In the experiment, the proposed approach is employed to calculate the operational risk capital charge for the overall Chinese banking. The experiment dataset is the most comprehensive operational risk dataset in China as far as we know. The results show that the proposed approach is able to use the information of high order moments and might be more effective and stable than the usually used parametric approach.

  11. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    The first phase of the assessment concentrates on (1) identification of selected risk-based approaches for improving current technical specifications, (2) appraisal of characteristics of each approach, including advantages and disadvantages, and (3) recommendation of one or more approaches that might result in improving current technical specification requirements. The second phase of the work concentrates on assessment of the feasibility of implementation of a pilot program to study detailed characteristics of the preferred approach. The real time risk-based approach was identified as the preferred approach to technical specifications for controlling plant operational risk. There do not appear to be any technical or institutional obstacles to prevent initiation of a pilot program to assess the characteristics and effectiveness of such an approach. 2 tabs

  12. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

    2013-01-01

    There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process.

  14. A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Salinas-Rodriguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional design standards for urban drainage systems are not set to deal with extreme rainfall events. As these events are becoming more frequent, there is room for proposing new planning approaches and standards that are flexible enough to cope with a wide range of rainfall events. In this paper, a semi risk-based approach is presented as a simple and practical way for the analysis and management of rainfall flooding at the precinct scale. This approach uses various rainfall events as input parameters for the analysis of the flood hazard and impacts, and categorises the flood risk in different levels, ranging from very low to very high risk. When visualised on a map, the insight into the risk levels across the precinct will enable engineers and spatial planners to identify and prioritise interventions to manage the flood risk. The approach is demonstrated for a sewer district in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using a one-dimensional (1D/two-dimensional (2D flood model. The risk level of this area is classified as being predominantly very low or low, with a couple of locations with high and very high risk. For these locations interventions, such as disconnection and lowering street profiles, have been proposed and analysed with the 1D/2D flood model. The interventions were shown to be effective in reducing the risk levels from very high/high risk to medium/low risk.

  15. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  16. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

  17. The Two C”s of the Risk-Based Approach to Goal based Standards: Challenges and Caveats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Zachariadis, Panos

    2007-01-01

    industry has begun to move from a reactive to a proactive approach to safety through “Formal Safety Assessment” (FSA) and “Goal Based Standards” (GBS). FSA was introduced by the IMO as “a rational and systematic process for accessing the risk related to maritime safety and the protection of the marine...... environment and for evaluating the costs and benefits of IMO’s options for reducing these risks”. The recent GBS approach aims to be another proactive instrument, and there has been recent discussion in the IMO on the possible links between FSA and GBS. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used......, but confusing to many, notions such as Risk Based Rulemaking vs. Risk Based Design, and IMO's GBS Traditional Approach vs. Safety Level Approach, and the implications of their use, or misuse, to future ship rulemaking, design and safety. The paper elaborates on some identified weaknesses of the risk based...

  18. Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

    2015-06-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

  19. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Generating evidence on a risk-based monitoring approach in the academic setting – lessons learned

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda von Niederhäusern

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In spite of efforts to employ risk-based strategies to increase monitoring efficiency in the academic setting, empirical evidence on their effectiveness remains sparse. This mixed-methods study aimed to evaluate the risk-based on-site monitoring approach currently followed at our academic institution. Methods We selected all studies monitored by the Clinical Trial Unit (CTU according to Risk ADApted MONitoring (ADAMON at the University Hospital Basel, Switzerland, between 01.01.2012 and 31.12.2014. We extracted study characteristics and monitoring information from the CTU Enterprise Resource Management system and from monitoring reports of all selected studies. We summarized the data descriptively. Additionally, we conducted semi-structured interviews with the three current CTU monitors. Results During the observation period, a total of 214 monitoring visits were conducted in 43 studies resulting in 2961 documented monitoring findings. Our risk-based approach predominantly identified administrative (46.2% and patient right findings (49.1%. We identified observational study design, high ADAMON risk category, industry sponsorship, the presence of an electronic database, experienced site staff, and inclusion of vulnerable study population to be factors associated with lower numbers of findings. The monitors understand the positive aspects of a risk-based approach but fear missing systematic errors due to the low frequency of visits. Conclusions We show that the factors mostly increasing the risk for on-site monitoring findings are underrepresented in the current risk analysis scheme. Our risk-based on-site approach should further be complemented by centralized data checks, allowing monitors to transform their role towards partners for overall trial quality, and success.

  1. Approaches to acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-01-01

    Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

  2. A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

  3. A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

    2011-01-01

    Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

  4. THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

  5. A risk-based approach to health criteria for radon indoors -report on a WHO initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhaeusler, F.

    1994-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO), Regional Office for Europe, organised a meeting of a working group on indoor air quality in Eilat, Israel, from 28 March to 4 April 1993. The aim was to develop a risk-based approach to health criteria for radon indoors. The Group reviewed the latest epidemiological data from occupational and non-occupational radon exposure, animal experiments and dosimetry. The Group issued 14 conclusions and 23 recommendations on radon related risk to health, on risk management and risk communication. In summary, radon was confirmed as a human carcinogen. Indoor radon exposures resulting in individual risks exceeding 10 -3 per year are to be considered as severe and risk reduction programmes implemented. Guidance on risk management and communication is offered to national authorities. (author)

  6. Novel two-tiered approach of ecological risk assessment for pesticide mixtures based on joint effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dayong; Mao, Haichen; Lv, Huichao; Zheng, Yong; Peng, Conghu; Hou, Shaogang

    2018-02-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mixtures have attracted considerable attention. In this study, 38 pesticides in the real environment were taken as objects and their toxicities to different organisms from three trophic levels were employed to assess the ecological risk of the mixture. The first tier assessment was based on the CA effect and the obtained sum of risk quotients (SRQ species-CA ) were 3.06-9.22. The second tier assessment was based on non-CA effects and the calculated SRQ species-TU are 5.37-9.29 using joint effects (TU sum ) as modified coefficients, which is higher than SRQ species-CA and indicates that ignoring joint effects might run the risk of underestimating the actual impact of pesticide mixtures. Due to the influences of synergistic and antagonistic effects, risk contribution of components to mixture risks based on non-CA effects are different from those based on the CA effect. Moreover, it was found that the top 8 dominating components explained 95.5%-99.8% of mixture risks in this study. The dominating components are similar in the two tiers for a given species. Accordingly, a novel two-tiered approach was proposed to assess the ecological risks of mixtures based on joint effects. This study provides new insights for ecological risk assessments with the consideration of joint effects of components in the pesticide mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Waste management project’s alternatives: A risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Sotirchos, Anastasios; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives. ► We present a novel risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) approach. ► In the RBMCA the evaluation criteria are based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project’s alternatives. ► Correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is examined. ► Preference to the multi-criteria against the one-criterion evaluation process is discussed. - Abstract: This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project’s alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives’ B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project’s alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers’ risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.

  8. A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

    2013-09-01

    Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  9. A Risk-Based Approach for Asset Allocation with A Defaultable Share

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Shen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel risk-based approach for an optimal asset allocation problem with default risk, where a money market account, an ordinary share and a defaultable security are investment opportunities in a general non-Markovian economy incorporating random market parameters. The objective of an investor is to select an optimal mix of these securities such that a risk metric of an investment portfolio is minimized. By adopting a sub-additive convex risk measure, which takes into account interest rate risk, as a measure for risk, the investment problem is discussed mathematically in a form of a two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the investor and the market. A backward stochastic differential equation approach is used to provide a flexible and theoretically sound way to solve the game problem. Closed-form expressions for the optimal strategies of the investor and the market are obtained when the penalty function is a quadratic function and when the risk measure is a sub-additive coherent risk measure. An important case of the general non-Markovian model, namely the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with time delay, is considered. Numerical examples based on simulations for the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with and without time delay are provided to illustrate how the proposed model can be applied in this important case. The proposed model can be implemented using Excel spreadsheets.

  10. A Risk and Standards Based Approach to Quality Assurance in Australia's Diverse Higher Education Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency, 2015

    2015-01-01

    The Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency's (TEQSA's) role is to assure that quality standards are being met by all registered higher education providers. This paper explains how TEQSA's risk-based approach to assuring higher education standards is applied in broad terms to a diverse sector. This explanation is…

  11. A risk assessment approach to evaluating food safety based on product surveillance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notermans, S.; Nauta, M.J.; Jansen, J.; Jouve, J.L.; Mead, G.C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk assessment approach to food safety evaluation, which is based on testing a particular type of food, or group of similar foods, for relevant microbial pathogens. The results obtained are related to possible adverse effects on the health of consumers. The paper also gives an

  12. Risk-based approach in valuation of workplace injury rate for transportation and construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykhtin, Kirill; Simankina, Tatiana; Sharmanov, Vladimir; Kopytova, Anna

    2017-10-01

    The danger of injuries and accidents in various industries such as transportation and construction urges the government to control the occupational health and safety more strictly. However, in order to do so with the minimal costs modern risk management tools, have to be implemented. Risk-based approach is an essential tool for competent risk- assessment and used in a great variety of other countries, demonstrating great results in providing of safe working environment. The article describes the problems that the implementation of the method faces in Russia and suggests certain ways to resolve them.

  13. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford Site cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Daling, P.M.; Baynes, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a conceptual set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within an expected annual funding profile of 1.05 billion dollars. These strategies were developed because (1) the US Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the US Congress and the US Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and riskreduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars annually. The risk-based strategies described herein were developed through a systems analysis approach that (1) analyzed the cleanup mission; (2) identified cleanup objectives, including risk reduction, land use, and mortgage reduction; (3) analyzed the existing baseline cleanup strategy from a cost and risk perspective; (4) developed alternatives for accomplishing the cleanup mission; (5) compared those alternatives against cleanup objectives; and (6) produced conclusions and recommendations regarding the current strategy and potential risk-based strategies

  14. Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.

    1995-03-01

    Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.

  15. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

  16. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

    2007-11-15

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

  17. RBCA-based approaches to ecological risk assessment for TPH-contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hummell, R.; Vedagiri, U.

    1995-01-01

    The RBCA guidelines proposed by ASTM form an evaluation and decision-making framework for sites potentially contaminated by petroleum releases. They present a three-tiered approach of decreasing conservatism and increasing site-specificity that primarily evaluates risks to human health. While RBCA includes consideration of environmental impacts, there are no specific recommendations on how this is to be achieved. A RBCA-based ecological risk assessment approach was developed for TPH-contaminated areas in Alaska. The approach presents a habitat-based selection process for surrogate chemicals and indicator chemicals of ecological relevance, evaluation of ecotoxicity, derivation of matrix-specific Tier 1 RBSLs (including soils) and determination of Tier 2 and 3 SSTLS. Chemicals are considered by class, aquatic (freshwater and saltwater) and terrestrial habitats are evaluated independently, and chemical concentrations are screened in all media of concern (air, soil, water, sediment). Data needs and decision points specific to ecological receptors are identified for each tier of the approach. Other aspects of the approach include consideration of contaminant migration pathways and habitats that are typical of Arctic conditions. Areas where ecological and human risk concerns may overlap are identified

  18. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  19. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  20. A Grey Theory Based Approach to Big Data Risk Management Using FMEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maisa Mendonça Silva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Big data is the term used to denote enormous sets of data that differ from other classic databases in four main ways: (huge volume, (high velocity, (much greater variety, and (big value. In general, data are stored in a distributed fashion and on computing nodes as a result of which big data may be more susceptible to attacks by hackers. This paper presents a risk model for big data, which comprises Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA and Grey Theory, more precisely grey relational analysis. This approach has several advantages: it provides a structured approach in order to incorporate the impact of big data risk factors; it facilitates the assessment of risk by breaking down the overall risk to big data; and finally its efficient evaluation criteria can help enterprises reduce the risks associated with big data. In order to illustrate the applicability of our proposal in practice, a numerical example, with realistic data based on expert knowledge, was developed. The numerical example analyzes four dimensions, that is, managing identification and access, registering the device and application, managing the infrastructure, and data governance, and 20 failure modes concerning the vulnerabilities of big data. The results show that the most important aspect of risk to big data relates to data governance.

  1. Contemporary approaches to reducing the risks of central counterparties based on the use of marginal contributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utkin Viktor Sergeyevich

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To protect their own interests central counterparties has developed a number of procedures, including payment of guarantee margin by trading members as a means to ensure their positions. This article discusses a number of approaches, which attempt to simulate the risks of the Central Committee, as well as calculating the amount of margin and other resources in the event of insolvency. These approaches are based on the simulation of the three main types: (a statistical modeling; (b optimization modeling, and (c model of option pricing. The author incorporates the basic provisions of models.

  2. Can a Risk Factor Based Approach Safely Reduce Screening for Retinopathy of Prematurity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Friddle

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Current American retinopathy of prematurity (ROP screening guidelines is imprecise for infants ≥ 30 weeks with birth weights between 1500 and 2000 g. Our objective was to evaluate a risk factor based approach for screening premature infants at low risk for severe ROP. Study Design. We performed a 13-year review from Intermountain Health Care (IHC data. All neonates born at ≤32 weeks were reviewed to determine ROP screening and/or development of severe ROP. Severe ROP was defined by stage ≥ 3 or need for laser therapy. Regression analysis was used to identify significant risk factors for severe ROP. Results. We identified 4607 neonates ≤ 32 weeks gestation. Following exclusion for death, with no retinal exam or incomplete data, 2791 (61% were included in the study. Overall, severe ROP occurred in 260 (9.3%, but only 11/1601 ≥ 29 weeks (0.7%. All infants with severe ROP ≥ 29 weeks had at least 2 identified ROP risk factors. Implementation of this risk based screening strategy to the IHC population over the timeline of this study would have eliminated screening in 21% (343/1601 of the screened population. Conclusions. Limiting ROP screening for infants ≥ 29 and ≤ 32 weeks to only those with clinical risk factors could significantly reduce screening exams while identifying all infants with severe ROP.

  3. Identifying and Mitigating the Impact of the Budget Control Act on High Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Ü~åÖÉ= - 351 - products, similar to those found in a bill of material. Figure 3 provides an example of the relationship between sectors , sub- sectors ...defense aircraft. Defense aircraft are divided in three main sub- sectors : fixed-wing, rotary wing, and unmanned systems. The fixed-wing sub- sector ...Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks Lirio Avilés, Engineer, MIBP, OUSD(AT&L) Sally

  4. A Probabilistic Alternative Approach to Optimal Project Profitability Based on the Value-at-Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggu Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on an investment decision-making process for sustainable development based on the profitability impact factors for overseas projects. Investors prefer to use the discounted cash-flow method. Although this method is simple and straightforward, its critical weakness is its inability to reflect the factor volatility associated with the project evaluation. To overcome this weakness, the Value-at-Risk method is used to apply the volatility of the profitability impact factors, thereby reflecting the risks and establishing decision-making criteria for risk-averse investors. Risk-averse investors can lose relatively acceptable investment opportunities to risk-neutral or risk-amenable investors due to strict investment decision-making criteria. To overcome this problem, critical factors are selected through a Monte Carlo simulation and a sensitivity analysis, and solutions to the critical-factor problems are then found by using the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and a business version of the Project Definition Rating Index. This study examines the process of recovering investment opportunities with projects that are investment feasible and that have been rejected when applying the criterion of the Value-at-Risk method. To do this, a probabilistic alternative approach is taken. To validate this methodology, the proposed framework for an improved decision-making process is demonstrated using two actual overseas projects of a Korean steel-making company.

  5. Use of an ecologically relevant modelling approach to improve remote sensing-based schistosomiasis risk profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Walz

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d’Ivoire using high- and moderateresolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixelbased modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements.

  6. A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

    2018-03-01

    For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

  7. Real-time risk monitoring in business processes : a sensor-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conforti, R.; La Rosa, M.; Fortino, G.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Recker, J.; Adams, M.

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis,

  8. Integrating household risk mitigation behaviour in flood risk analysis : An agent-based model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect

  9. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  10. Chemical Exposure Assessment Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory: A risk based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    The University of California Contract And DOE Order 5480.10 require that Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) perform health hazard assessments/inventories of all employee workplaces. In response to this LANL has developed the Chemical Exposure Assessment Program. This program provides a systematic risk-based approach to anticipation, recognition, evaluation and control of chemical workplace exposures. Program implementation focuses resources on exposures with the highest risks for causing adverse health effects. Implementation guidance includes procedures for basic characterization, qualitative risk assessment, quantitative validation, and recommendations and reevaluation. Each component of the program is described. It is shown how a systematic method of assessment improves documentation, retrieval, and use of generated exposure information

  11. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartley, R.S.; Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-01-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development's (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing

  12. A practical approach for implementing risk-based inservice testing of pumps at nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, R.S. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Maret, D.; Seniuk, P.; Smith, L.

    1996-12-01

    The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Center for Research and Technology Development`s (CRTD) Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inservice Testing has developed guidelines for risk-based inservice testing (IST) of pumps and valves. These guidelines are intended to help the ASME Operation and Maintenance (OM) Committee to enhance plant safety while focussing appropriate testing resources on critical components. This paper describes a practical approach for implementing those guidelines for pumps at nuclear power plants. The approach, as described in this paper, relies on input, direction, and assistance from several entities such as the ASME Code Committees, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the National Laboratories, as well as industry groups and personnel with applicable expertise. Key parts of the risk-based IST process that are addressed here include: identification of important failure modes, identification of significant failure causes, assessing the effectiveness of testing and maintenance activities, development of alternative testing and maintenance strategies, and assessing the effectiveness of alternative testing strategies with present ASME Code requirements. Finally, the paper suggests a method of implementing this process into the ASME OM Code for pump testing.

  13. Surface water flood risk and management strategies for London: An Agent-Based Model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenkins Katie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is recognised as one of the most common and costliest natural disasters in England. Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall is known as ‘surface water flooding’, considered to be the most likely cause of flood events and one of the greatest short-term climate risks for London. In this paper we present results from a novel Agent-Based Model designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options, different agents, and the role of flood insurance and the flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The model illustrates how investment in adaptation options could reduce London’s surface water flood risk, today and in the future. However, benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, it offers no additional benefits in terms of overall risk reduction, and will face increasing pressure due to rising surface water flood risk in the future. The modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for reviewing the proposed Flood Re scheme, as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes, and broader multi-sectoral partnerships, to incentivise flood risk management in the UK and internationally.

  14. The risk-based approach to ATMP development - generally accepted by regulators but infrequently used by companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooijman, M; van Meer, P J K; Gispen-de Wied, C C; Moors, E H M; Hekkert, M P; Schellekens, H

    2013-11-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs) are the cutting edge of drug innovation. ATMPs have different challenges than other drug classes. To accommodate these challenges and facilitate science-driven development, flexibility in the requirements to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of this rapidly evolving drug class is necessary. To create flexibility, the European Union introduced the risk-based approach. This approach provides the possibility of omitting guideline-based studies based on risk analyses. To gain insight into the effect of the risk-based approach on the non-clinical development of ATMPs, two questions are addressed in this paper. Firstly, "Do companies use a risk-based approach for the non-clinical development of ATMPs?" and, secondly, "Does the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) accept non-clinical development programs based on the risk-based approach?" Scientific advice letters formulated by the CHMP were analyzed. The risk-based approach was used to justify deviations from the guidelines in the majority (75%) of the cases. The CHMP accepted 40% of the proposals to omit studies and stated that additional data was necessary to make an informed decision for 35% of the proposals. This indicates that the risk-based approach facilitates the science-driven development of ATMPs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

    2018-05-03

    The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. 77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...-weighted assets for residential mortgages, securitization exposures, and counterparty credit risk. The.... Risk-Weighted Assets--Proposed Modifications to the Advanced Approaches Rules A. Counterparty Credit... Margin Period of Risk 3. Changes to the Internal Models Methodology (IMM) 4. Credit Valuation Adjustments...

  17. A theory-based approach to understanding suicide risk in shelter-seeking women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Smith, Phillip N

    2015-04-01

    Women seeking shelter from intimate partner violence are at an increased risk for suicide ideation and attempts compared to women in the general population. Control-based violence, which is common among shelter-seeking women, may play a pivotal role in the development of suicide ideation and attempts. Current risk assessment and management practices for shelter-seeking women are limited by the lack of an empirically grounded understanding of increased risk in this population. We argue that in order to more effectively promote risk assessment and management, an empirically supported theory that is sensitive to the experiences of shelter-seeking women is needed. Such a theory-driven approach has the benefits of identifying and prioritizing targetable areas for intervention. Here, we review the evidence for the link between coercive control and suicide ideation and attempts from the perspective of Baumeister's escape theory of suicide. This theory has the potential to explain the role of coercive control in the development of suicide ideation and eventual attempts in shelter-seeking women. Implications for suicide risk assessment and prevention in domestic violence shelters are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Application impact analysis: a risk-based approach to business continuity and disaster recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Beth; Khan, Dawn Christine

    2014-01-01

    There are many possible disruptions that can occur in business. Overlooking or under planning for Business Continuity requires time, understanding and careful planning. Business Continuity Management is far more than producing a document and declaring business continuity success. What is the recipe for businesses to achieve continuity management success? Application Impact Analysis is a method for understanding the unique Business Attributes. This AIA Cycle involves a risk based approach to understanding the business priority and considering business aspects such as Financial, Operational, Service Structure, Contractual Legal, and Brand. The output of this analysis provides a construct for viewing data, evaluating impact, and delivering results, for an approved valuation of Recovery Time Objectives (RTO).

  19. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads

  20. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E. [BNFL Fuel Solutions, Campbell, CA (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads.

  1. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  2. How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarang, Amin; Vahedi, Arman; Shamsai, Abolfazl

    2008-02-01

    Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

  3. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  4. Quality assessment of state land internal audit agency of Ukraine based on risk-oriented approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.G. Vugovska

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article stipulates that in modern conditions of development and reform of the national system of state financial control to the fore the issue of quality, which is an integral part of - or the provision of a service or product produced. In the context of our study on the evaluation of the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency, is the efficiency of its operation. The authors have developed scientific and methodical approach to assessing the quality of the internal audit system of the State Land Agency of Ukraine by specifying the list of evaluation criteria and the implementation of risk-based model selection controlled entities, which allowed to determine the potential risk of financial irregularities and frequency of inspections by the State Financial Inspection. Determined that the planned inspections of the state Land Agency should be not less than once every two years. Applying the above approach will reduce the number of violations in budgetary institutions, improve the quality control organization by the internal audit work, increase the responsibility of the head of an effective, legitimate and proper use of funds. The authors were asked to form a report on the results of the internal audit quality in budgetary institutions and determined that for the cooperation of internal audit bodies of the State financial inspection need to be able to use the latest internal audit report to provide recommendations to improve the functioning of the internal control systems in controlled entities.

  5. Elderly fall risk prediction based on a physiological profile approach using artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razmara, Jafar; Zaboli, Mohammad Hassan; Hassankhani, Hadi

    2016-11-01

    Falls play a critical role in older people's life as it is an important source of morbidity and mortality in elders. In this article, elders fall risk is predicted based on a physiological profile approach using a multilayer neural network with back-propagation learning algorithm. The personal physiological profile of 200 elders was collected through a questionnaire and used as the experimental data for learning and testing the neural network. The profile contains a series of simple factors putting elders at risk for falls such as vision abilities, muscle forces, and some other daily activities and grouped into two sets: psychological factors and public factors. The experimental data were investigated to select factors with high impact using principal component analysis. The experimental results show an accuracy of ≈90 percent and ≈87.5 percent for fall prediction among the psychological and public factors, respectively. Furthermore, combining these two datasets yield an accuracy of ≈91 percent that is better than the accuracy of single datasets. The proposed method suggests a set of valid and reliable measurements that can be employed in a range of health care systems and physical therapy to distinguish people who are at risk for falls.

  6. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  7. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  8. Beyond Risk and Protective Factors: An Adaptation-Based Approach to Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Bruce J; Bianchi, JeanMarie; Griskevicius, Vladas; Frankenhuis, Willem E

    2017-07-01

    How does repeated or chronic childhood adversity shape social and cognitive abilities? According to the prevailing deficit model, children from high-stress backgrounds are at risk for impairments in learning and behavior, and the intervention goal is to prevent, reduce, or repair the damage. Missing from this deficit approach is an attempt to leverage the unique strengths and abilities that develop in response to high-stress environments. Evolutionary-developmental models emphasize the coherent, functional changes that occur in response to stress over the life course. Research in birds, rodents, and humans suggests that developmental exposures to stress can improve forms of attention, perception, learning, memory, and problem solving that are ecologically relevant in harsh-unpredictable environments (as per the specialization hypothesis). Many of these skills and abilities, moreover, are primarily manifest in currently stressful contexts where they would provide the greatest fitness-relevant advantages (as per the sensitization hypothesis). This perspective supports an alternative adaptation-based approach to resilience that converges on a central question: "What are the attention, learning, memory, problem-solving, and decision-making strategies that are enhanced through exposures to childhood adversity?" At an applied level, this approach focuses on how we can work with, rather than against, these strengths to promote success in education, employment, and civic life.

  9. Theory-based approaches to understanding public emergency preparedness: implications for effective health and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Hye-Jin; Hilyard, Karen; Freimuth, Vicki; Barge, J Kevin; Mindlin, Michele

    2010-06-01

    Recent natural and human-caused disasters have awakened public health officials to the importance of emergency preparedness. Guided by health behavior and media effects theories, the analysis of a statewide survey in Georgia reveals that self-efficacy, subjective norm, and emergency news exposure are positively associated with the respondents' possession of emergency items and their stages of emergency preparedness. Practical implications suggest less focus on demographics as the sole predictor of emergency preparedness and more comprehensive measures of preparedness, including both a person's cognitive stage of preparedness and checklists of emergency items on hand. We highlight the utility of theory-based approaches for understanding and predicting public emergency preparedness as a way to enable more effective health and risk communication.

  10. New approaches to infection prevention and control: implementing a risk-based model regionally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wale, Martin; Kibsey, Pamela; Young, Lisa; Dobbyn, Beverly; Archer, Jana

    2016-06-01

    Infectious disease outbreaks result in substantial inconvenience to patients and disruption of clinical activity. Between 1 April 2008 and 31 March 2009, the Vancouver Island Health Authority (Island Health) declared 16 outbreaks of Vancomycin Resistant Enterococci and Clostridium difficile in acute care facilities. As a result, infection prevention and control became one of Island Health's highest priorities. Quality improvement methodology, which promotes a culture of co-production between front-line staff, physicians and Infection Control Practitioners, was used to develop and test a bundle of changes in practices. A series of rapid Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles, specific to decreasing hospital-acquired infections, were undertaken by a community hospital, selected for its size, clinical specialty representation, and enthusiasm amongst staff and physicians for innovation and change. Positive results were incorporated into practice at the test site, and then introduced throughout the rest of the Health Authority. The changes implemented as a result of this study have enabled better control of antibiotic resistant organisms and have minimized disruption to routine activity, as well as saving an estimated $6.5 million per annum. When outbreaks do occur, they are now controlled much more promptly, even in existing older facilities. Through this process, we have changed our approach in Infection Prevention and Control (IPAC) from a rules-based approach to one that is risk-based, focusing attention on identifying and managing high-risk situations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  11. Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  12. Preparing disabled students for professional practice: managing risk through a principles-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargreaves, Janet; Walker, Lizzie

    2014-08-01

    A discussion exploring the ways disabled students are managed in practice settings. It proposes and argues for morally and legally viable principles to guide risk assessment and inclusive decision-making in practice. Equality law means that universities are bound not to discriminate against students on the basis, amongst other things, of disability. As a consequence in the UK, there is a perceived increase in numbers of disabled people applying for and succeeding as health professionals. Whilst placement providers are equally obliged by the law to have inclusive policies, competing needs including patient safety, public confidence and professional regulations mean that adjustments that can be made in an educational environment to appropriately support student learning may prove to be more difficult in placements that provide direct care to the public. This discussion is an outcome of recommendations from published research by the authors and their research partners. It is supported by related literature, critical debate amongst academics, disabled students and disabled and non-disabled practitioners. Ensuring a nursing workforce that mirrors the diversity of the population it serves is of universal importance. Effective management of disabled students can contribute to achieving this goal and to promoting a positive view of disabled practitioners. Legislation is necessary to protect disabled people from discrimination. To respect this legislation, when preparing nurses and other health professions, a clear understanding of the law and a principles-based approach to guiding risk is important. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Comparison of China's oil import risk. Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Liu, Lan-Cui; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk. (author)

  14. New exposure-based metric approach for evaluating O3 risk to North American aspen forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Percy, K.E.; Nosal, M.; Heilman, W.; Dann, T.; Sober, J.; Legge, A.H.; Karnosky, D.F.

    2007-01-01

    The United States and Canada currently use exposure-based metrics to protect vegetation from O 3 . Using 5 years (1999-2003) of co-measured O 3 , meteorology and growth response, we have developed exposure-based regression models that predict Populus tremuloides growth change within the North American ambient air quality context. The models comprised growing season fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average O 3 concentration, growing degree days, and wind speed. They had high statistical significance, high goodness of fit, include 95% confidence intervals for tree growth change, and are simple to use. Averaged across a wide range of clonal sensitivity, historical 2001-2003 growth change over most of the 26 M ha P. tremuloides distribution was estimated to have ranged from no impact (0%) to strong negative impacts (-31%). With four aspen clones responding negatively (one responded positively) to O 3 , the growing season fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average O 3 concentration performed much better than growing season SUM06, AOT40 or maximum 1 h average O 3 concentration metrics as a single indicator of aspen stem cross-sectional area growth. - A new exposure-based metric approach to predict O 3 risk to North American aspen forests has been developed

  15. Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartemink, Nienke; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Purse, Bethan V; Gilbert, Marius; Van Dyck, Hans

    2015-11-01

    Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical-statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  16. Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

    2014-05-01

    This research is aimed to develop a high-effective system of an ecological risk assessment and risk-based decision making for anthropogenic ecosystems, with particular focus on the soils of the Kyrgyz Republic. The study is focused on the integration of Triad data including chemical, biological and ecotoxicological soil markers to estimate the potential risk from soils of highly anthropized areas impacted by deposition of different pollutants from mining operation. We focus on technogenic areas of Kyrgyzstan, the former uranium-producing province. Triad-based ecological risk assessment for technogenic sites are not currently used in Kyrgyzstan. However, the vitality of such research is self-evident. There are about 50 tailing dumps and more than 80 tips of radioactive waste which are formed as a result of uranium and complex ores (mercury, antimony, lead, cadmium and etc) mining around the unfavorable aforementioned places. According to the Mining Wastes' Tailings and Fills Rehabilitation Centre established in 1999 by a special Government's Resolution, one of the most ecologically dangerous uranium tailings resides in Kadzhi-Say. Although uranium processing is no longer practiced in Kadzhi-Say, a large number of open landfills and uranium ore storages still remain abandoned at the vicinity of this settlement. These neglected sites have enormous problems associated with soil erosion known as "technogenic deserts". The upper soil horizons are deprived of humus and vegetation, which favor the formation of low-buffer landscapes in the zones of maximum contamination. As a result, most of these areas are not re-cultivated and remain in critical environmental condition (Bykovchenko, et al., 2005; Tukhvatshin, 2005; Suranova, 2006). Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites will be integrated. The following Triad-based parameters will be employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous

  17. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  18. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AZARM,M.A.; TRAVIS,R.J.

    1999-11-14

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions.

  19. FIRE SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: A RISK-INFORMED AND PERFORMANCE-BASED APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AZARM, M.A.; TRAVIS, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    The consideration of risk in regulatory decision-making has long been a part of NRC's policy and practice. Initially, these considerations were qualitative and were based on risk insights. The early regulations relied on good practices, past insights, and accepted standards. As a result, most NRC regulations were prescriptive and were applied uniformly to all areas within the regulatory scope. Risk technology is changing regulations by prioritizing the areas within regulatory scope based on risk, thereby focusing on the risk-important areas. Performance technology, on the other hand, is changing the regulations by allowing requirements to be adjusted based on the specific performance expected and manifested, rather than a prior prescriptive requirement. Consistent with the objectives of risk-informed and performance-based regulatory requirements, BNL evaluated the feasibility of applying risk- and performance-technologies to modifying NRC's current regulations on fire protection for nuclear power plants. This feasibility study entailed several case studies (trial applications). This paper describes the results of two of them. Besides the case studies, the paper discusses an overall evaluation of methodologies for fire-risk analysis to support the risk-informed regulation. It identifies some current shortcomings and proposes some near-term solutions

  20. Risk-Based School Inspections: Impact of Targeted Inspection Approaches on Dutch Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehren, Melanie C.; Shackleton, Nichola

    2016-01-01

    In most countries, publicly funded schools are held accountable to one inspectorate and are judged against agreed national standards. Many inspectorates of education have recently moved towards more proportional risk-based inspection models, targeting high-risk schools for visits, while schools with satisfactory student attainment levels are…

  1. Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, N.; Vanwambeke, S.O.; Purse, B.V.; Gilbert, M.; Van Dyck, H.

    2015-01-01

    Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional

  2. Perceived Benefits and Challenges of a Risk-Based Approach to Multidisciplinary Chronic Kidney Disease Care: A Qualitative Descriptive Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smekal, Michelle D; Tam-Tham, Helen; Finlay, Juli; Donald, Maoliosa; Benterud, Eleanor; Thomas, Chandra; Quinn, Robert R; Tam, Kin; Manns, Braden J; Tonelli, Marcello; Bello, Aminu; Tangri, Navdeep; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R

    2018-01-01

    The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) provides an estimate of risk of progression to kidney failure, and may guide clinical care. We aimed to describe patient, family, and health care provider's perspectives of the perceived benefits and challenges of using a risk-based approach to guide care delivery for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), and refine implementation based on their input. We used qualitative methodology to explore perceived benefits and challenges of implementing a risk-based approach (using the KFRE) to determine eligibility for multidisciplinary CKD care in Southern Alberta. We obtained perspectives from patients and families through focus groups, as well as input from health care providers through interviews and open-ended responses from an online survey. Twelve patients/family members participated in 2 focus groups, 16 health care providers participated in an interview, and 40 health care providers responded to the survey. Overall, participants felt that a KFRE-based approach had the potential to improve efficiency of the clinics by targeting care to patients at highest risk of kidney failure; however, they also expressed concerns about the impact of loss of services for lower risk individuals. Participants also articulated concerns about a perceived lack of capacity for adequate CKD patient care in the community. Our implementation strategy was modified as a result of participants' feedback. We identified benefits and challenges to implementation of a risk-based approach to guide care of patients with advanced CKD. Based on these results, our implementation strategy has been modified by removing the category of referral back to primary care alone, and instead having that decision made jointly by nephrologists and patients among low-risk patients.

  3. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noordhuizen, Jptm; Cannas da Silva, J

    2009-04-01

    Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health.

  4. HACCP-based quality risk management approach to udder health problems on dairy farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noordhuizen JPTM

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Against the background of prevailing udder health problems on dairy farms, this paper discusses a new approach to mastitis control. Current udder health control programmes, such as the 'five-point plan', are highlighted and their drawbacks indicated. The concept and principles of hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP are introduced. The eight core elements of this concept are dealt with by using the example of a dairy herd with a mastitis problem due to Staphylococcus aureus. The various steps to be taken in the development of a HACCP-based quality risk management programme are illustrated through the application of core elements. Finally, it is shown that the HACCP key words, structure, organisation, planning, communication and formalisation; which do not frequently appear in conventional herd health and production management programmes can contribute to better udder health. The role of the veterinarian can be paramount and of added value, if he/she is willing to invest in new knowledge and skills, such as the HACCP concept, farm economics, animal nutrition, and particularly the role of coach to the dairy farmer in the implementation of preventative measures in relation to udder health.

  5. Risk-based approach for bioremediation of fuel hydrocarbons at a major airport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiedemeier, T.H.; Guest, P.R.; Blicker, B.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a risk-based approach for bioremediation of fuel-hydrocarbon-contaminated soil and ground water at a major airport in Colorado. In situ bioremediation pilot testing, natural attenuation modeling, and full-scale remedial action planning and implementation for soil and ground water contamination has conducted at four airport fuel farms. The sources of fuel contamination were leaking underground storage tanks (USTs) or pipelines transporting Jet A fuel and aviation gasoline. Continuing sources of contamination were present in several small cells of free-phase product and in fuel residuals trapped within the capillary fringe at depths 15 to 20 feet below ground surface. Bioventing pilot tests were conducted to assess the feasibility of using this technology to remediate contaminated soils. The pilot tests included measurement of initial soil gas chemistry at the site, determination of subsurface permeability, and in situ respiration tests to determine fuel biodegradation rates. A product recovery test was also conducted. ES designed and installed four full-scale bioventing systems to remediate the long-term sources of continuing fuel contamination. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were detected in ground water at concentrations slightly above regulatory guidelines

  6. Pollutants, human health and the environment - A risk-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plant, Jane A; Bone, James; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala; Voulvoulis, Nickalaos

    2011-01-01

    Over the last 50 a there has been mounting unease about the risk of synthetic chemicals to human health. Publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962 catalyzed public concern about chemicals. There is now a vast range of synthetic substances in the environment and their potential cocktail as well as the effects of chronic exposure is of concern. Concerns about pollution are not restricted to toxic chemicals, with radioactivity being an issue that continues to be emotive, and exposure to substances such as particulates has been seen to cause health problems. Improved understanding of chemical risks to the environment and human health suggest that a precautionary approach is adopted, with new approaches demonstrating how nature uses thousands of sustainable, non-toxic processes, which can be copied by industry. Policy has evolved from the prevention of local pollution to the holistic management of environmental quality. Regulation is now increasingly underpinned by risk assessment and responsibility for understanding and managing chemical risk is being transferred progressively to manufacturers and users. There is now an increased emphasis on individual responsibilities which requires a debate about the risks and benefits of chemicals in which all members of society can participate.

  7. Development of a risk-based approach to Hanford site cleanup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.

    1996-01-01

    In response to a request from Mr. Thomas Grumbly, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Environmental Management, the Hanford Site contractors developed a set of risk-based cleanup strategies that (1) protect the public, workers, and environment from unacceptable risks; (2) are executable technically; and (3) fit within currently expected annual funding profiles. These strategies were developed because (1) the U.S. Department of Energy and Hanford Site budgets are being reduced, (2) stakeholders are dissatisfied with the perceived rate of cleanup, (3) the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Department of Energy are increasingly focusing on risk and risk-reduction activities, (4) the present strategy is not integrated across the Site and is inconsistent in its treatment of similar hazards, (5) the present cleanup strategy is not cost-effective from a risk-reduction or future land use perspective, and (6) the milestones and activities in the Tri-Party Agreement cannot be achieved with an anticipated funding of 1.05 billion dollars, or less, annually. This analysis produced a framework and a set of tools that are available for dealing with changes to anticipated funding levels, changes in risk cleanup standards, and Congressional initiatives and inquiries. The tools include land-supply curves, cost profiles, risk profiles, mortgage reduction curves, and minimum operations costs. This paper describes the methodology used to develop mortgage-based, risk-based, and land-based cleanup strategies and how those strategies differ in terms of the work to be performed, its sequence, and the resulting end states

  8. [The Common Risk Factor Approach - An Integrated Population- and Evidence-Based Approach for Reducing Social Inequalities in Oral Health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilmann, A; Sheiham, A; Watt, R G; Jordan, R A

    2016-10-01

    Worldwide, non-communicable diseases including dental caries and periodontal diseases, remain a major public health problem. Moreover, there is a social gradient in health across society that runs from the top to the bottom in a linear, stepwise fashion. Health promoting behaviours become more difficult to sustain further down the social ladder. Oral health inequalities also exist in Germany. Earlier explanations of social inequalities have mainly focused on individual lifestyle factors, ignoring the broader social determinants of health and disease. Until recently, the dominant approaches to general health promotion focused on actions to reduce specific diseases, separating oral health from general health. An alternative approach is the common risk factor approach (CRFA) where risk factors common to a number of major chronic diseases, including diseases of the mouth and teeth, are tackled. The CRFA focuses on the common underlying determinants of health to improve the overall health of populations, thereby reducing social inequalities. The main implication of the CRFA for oral health policies is to work in partnership with a range of other sectors and disciplines. Oral health issues need to be integrated with recommendations to promote general health. Improvements in oral health and a reduction in oral health inequalities are more likely by working in partnership across sectors and disciplines using strategies that focus upstream on the underlying determinants of oral diseases. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  9. Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.

    2009-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis has historically been developed for situations in which measured data about the overall reliability of a system are limited and expert knowledge is the best source of information available. There continue to be a number of important problem areas characterized by a lack of hard data. However, in other important problem areas the emergence of information technology has transformed the situation from one characterized by little data to one characterized by data overabundance. Natural disaster risk assessments for events impacting large-scale, critical infrastructure systems such as electric power distribution systems, transportation systems, water supply systems, and natural gas supply systems are important examples of problems characterized by data overabundance. There are often substantial amounts of information collected and archived about the behavior of these systems over time. Yet it can be difficult to effectively utilize these large data sets for risk assessment. Using this information for estimating the probability or consequences of system failure requires a different approach and analysis paradigm than risk analysis for data-poor systems does. Statistical learning theory, a diverse set of methods designed to draw inferences from large, complex data sets, can provide a basis for risk analysis for data-rich systems. This paper provides an overview of statistical learning theory methods and discusses their potential for greater use in risk analysis

  10. A dominance-based approach to map risks of ecological invasions in the presence of severe uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; D. Barry Lyons; Mark Ducey; Klaus Koehler

    2012-01-01

    Aim Uncertainty has been widely recognized as one of the most critical issues in predicting the expansion of ecological invasions. The uncertainty associated with the introduction and spread of invasive organisms influences how pest management decision makers respond to expanding incursions. We present a model-based approach to map risk of ecological invasions that...

  11. 76 FR 53683 - Draft Guidance for Industry on Oversight of Clinical Investigations: A Risk-Based Approach to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-29

    ... 200N, Rockville, MD 20852-1448; or the Office of Communication, Education and Radiation Programs... describes a modern, risk-based approach to monitoring that focuses on critical study parameters and relies... appropriate, and other forms of information technology. Title: Draft Guidance for Industry: Oversight of...

  12. 76 FR 65165 - Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-20

    ..., this 14th day of October 2011. Kevin Shea, Acting Administrator, Animal and Plant Health Inspection... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service [Docket No. APHIS-2011-0092] Importation of Plants for Planting; Risk-Based Sampling and Inspection Approach and Propagative Monitoring and...

  13. A risk-based approach to setting priorities in protecting bridges against terrorist attacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Maria; Lambert, James H; Mosenthal, Alexander

    2004-08-01

    This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection.

  14. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

    2016-01-01

    Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

    2017-01-01

    Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

  17. Issues and approaches in risk-based aging analyses of passive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uryasev, S.P.; Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    In previous NRC-sponsored work a general methodology was developed to quantify the risk contributions from aging components at nuclear plants. The methodology allowed Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) to be modified to incorporate the age-dependent component failure rates and also aging maintenance models to evaluate and prioritize the aging contributions from active components using the linear aging failure rate model and empirical components aging rates. In the present paper, this methodology is extended to passive components (for example, the pipes, heat exchangers, and the vessel). The analyses of passive components bring in issues different from active components. Here, we specifically focus on three aspects that need to be addressed in risk-based aging prioritization of passive components

  18. A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Stephenson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

  19. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  20. Approaching application of risk-based inspection to ASME code section XI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedden, Owen F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper will describe current efforts within the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Committee's Subcommittee on Nuclear Inservice Inspection to introduce risk-based technology to optimize inservice inspection of nuclear power plants. The subcommittee is responsible for the content of ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The paper will first provide the historical background for the inspection program currently in Section XI. It will then describe the development of new technology through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development program. Next, the work now going on in two of the groups under the Section XI committee will be described in detail. Each of these two efforts is directed toward the application of new risk-based inspection technology to nuclear piping systems. Finally, the directions of additional research and applications of the technology will be discussed. (author)

  1. A Comparative Approach for Ranking Contaminated Sites Based on the Risk Assessment Paradigm Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kejiang; Kluck, Cheryl; Achari, Gopal

    2009-11-01

    A ranking system for contaminated sites based on comparative risk methodology using fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) was developed in this article. It combines the concepts of fuzzy sets to represent uncertain site information with the PROMETHEE, a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Criteria are identified based on a combination of the attributes (toxicity, exposure, and receptors) associated with the potential human health and ecological risks posed by contaminated sites, chemical properties, site geology and hydrogeology and contaminant transport phenomena. Original site data are directly used avoiding the subjective assignment of scores to site attributes. When the input data are numeric and crisp the PROMETHEE method can be used. The Fuzzy PROMETHEE method is preferred when substantial uncertainties and subjectivities exist in site information. The PROMETHEE and fuzzy PROMETHEE methods are both used in this research to compare the sites. The case study shows that this methodology provides reasonable results.

  2. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.

  3. Assessing privacy risks in population health publications using a checklist-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keefe, Christine M; Ickowicz, Adrien; Churches, Tim; Westcott, Mark; O'Sullivan, Maree; Khan, Atikur

    2017-11-10

    Recent growth in the number of population health researchers accessing detailed datasets, either on their own computers or through virtual data centers, has the potential to increase privacy risks. In response, a checklist for identifying and reducing privacy risks in population health analysis outputs has been proposed for use by researchers themselves. In this study we explore the usability and reliability of such an approach by investigating whether different users identify the same privacy risks on applying the checklist to a sample of publications. The checklist was applied to a sample of 100 academic population health publications distributed among 5 readers. Cohen's κ was used to measure interrater agreement. Of the 566 instances of statistical output types found in the 100 publications, the most frequently occurring were counts, summary statistics, plots, and model outputs. Application of the checklist identified 128 outputs (22.6%) with potential privacy concerns. Most of these were associated with the reporting of small counts. Among these identified outputs, the readers found no substantial actual privacy concerns when context was taken into account. Interrater agreement for identifying potential privacy concerns was generally good. This study has demonstrated that a checklist can be a reliable tool to assist researchers with anonymizing analysis outputs in population health research. This further suggests that such an approach may have the potential to be developed into a broadly applicable standard providing consistent confidentiality protection across multiple analyses of the same data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  4. Accelerometry-based gait analysis, an additional objective approach to screen subjects at risk for falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senden, R; Savelberg, H H C M; Grimm, B; Heyligers, I C; Meijer, K

    2012-06-01

    This study investigated whether the Tinetti scale, as a subjective measure for fall risk, is associated with objectively measured gait characteristics. It is studied whether gait parameters are different for groups that are stratified for fall risk using the Tinetti scale. Moreover, the discriminative power of gait parameters to classify elderly according to the Tinetti scale is investigated. Gait of 50 elderly with a Tinneti>24 and 50 elderly with a Tinetti≤24 was analyzed using acceleration-based gait analysis. Validated algorithms were used to derive spatio-temporal gait parameters, harmonic ratio, inter-stride amplitude variability and root mean square (RMS) from the accelerometer data. Clear differences in gait were found between the groups. All gait parameters correlated with the Tinetti scale (r-range: 0.20-0.73). Only walking speed, step length and RMS showed moderate to strong correlations and high discriminative power to classify elderly according to the Tinetti scale. It is concluded that subtle gait changes that have previously been related to fall risk are not captured by the subjective assessment. It is therefore worthwhile to include objective gait assessment in fall risk screening. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Managing the risks of disease transmission through trade: a commodities-based approach?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brückner, G K

    2011-04-01

    Since its founding in 1924, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has facilitated safe trade in animals and animal products by developing effective standards to prevent the spread of animal diseases across the globe. A protocol for recognising the disease-free status of countries is an integral part of this process and has been adopted and advanced through the years to assist OIE Member Countries in placing disease-free animals and their products on the international market. Options such as trade from disease-free zones and disease-free compartments are now available to Members and have proven to be a positive mechanism for facilitating trade. A further option is trading in safe commodities, i.e. animals and animal products that have been identified as safe to trade even in the presence of disease, either with or without applying risk mitigation measures before export. Although most Members have incorporated the acceptance of disease-free countries or zones into their animal health policies and sanitary measures, there still appears to be a reluctance to trade in commodities from infected countries, despite clear, scientifically based risk management standards that can be applied if needed. This paper offers some examples reflecting the apparent reluctance to trade in commodities and discusses how the standards in the OIE's Terrestrial Animal Health Code could be used to apply scientifically based risk management practices to review outdated policies.

  6. Metamodeling-based approach for risk assessment and cost estimation: Application to geological carbon sequestration planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Jeong, Hoonyoung; González-Nicolás, Ana; Templeton, Thomas C.

    2018-04-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being evaluated globally as a geoengineering measure for significantly reducing greenhouse emission. However, long-term liability associated with potential leakage from these geologic repositories is perceived as a main barrier of entry to site operators. Risk quantification and impact assessment help CCS operators to screen candidate sites for suitability of CO2 storage. Leakage risks are highly site dependent, and a quantitative understanding and categorization of these risks can only be made possible through broad participation and deliberation of stakeholders, with the use of site-specific, process-based models as the decision basis. Online decision making, however, requires that scenarios be run in real time. In this work, a Python based, Leakage Assessment and Cost Estimation (PyLACE) web application was developed for quantifying financial risks associated with potential leakage from geologic carbon sequestration sites. PyLACE aims to assist a collaborative, analytic-deliberative decision making processes by automating metamodel creation, knowledge sharing, and online collaboration. In PyLACE, metamodeling, which is a process of developing faster-to-run surrogates of process-level models, is enabled using a special stochastic response surface method and the Gaussian process regression. Both methods allow consideration of model parameter uncertainties and the use of that information to generate confidence intervals on model outputs. Training of the metamodels is delegated to a high performance computing cluster and is orchestrated by a set of asynchronous job scheduling tools for job submission and result retrieval. As a case study, workflow and main features of PyLACE are demonstrated using a multilayer, carbon storage model.

  7. An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Ching Y. Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

  8. A model-based approach to preplanting risk assessment for gray leaf spot of maize.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, P A; Munkvold, G P

    2004-12-01

    ABSTRACT Risk assessment models for gray leaf spot of maize, caused by Cercospora zeae-maydis, were developed using preplanting site and maize genotype data as predictors. Disease severity at the dough/dent plant growth stage was categorized into classes and used as the response variable. Logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) modeling approaches were used to predict severity classes as a function of planting date (PD), amount of maize soil surface residue (SR), cropping sequence, genotype maturity and gray leaf spot resistance (GLSR) ratings, and longitude (LON). Models were development using 332 cases collected between 1998 and 2001. Thirty cases collected in 2002 were used to validate the models. Preplanting data showed a strong relationship with late-season gray leaf spot severity classes. The most important predictors were SR, PD, GLSR, and LON. Logistic regression models correctly classified 60 to 70% of the validation cases, whereas the CART models correctly classified 57 to 77% of these cases. Cases misclassified by the CART models were mostly due to overestimation, whereas the logistic regression models tended to misclassify cases by underestimation. Both the CART and logistic regression models have potential as management decision-making tools. Early quantitative assessment of gray leaf spot risk would allow for more sound management decisions being made when warranted.

  9. Risk-Based Approach for Thermal Treatment of Soils Contaminated with Heavy Metals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cocârţă D. M.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In the actual context of limited soil resources and the significant degree of environmental pollution, public administrations and authorities are interested in restoring contaminated sites paying attention to the impact of these soils on human health. This paper aims to present the efficiency of the the incineration as a method for treatment of the contaminated soils t based on human health risk assessment. Through various experimentations, the following metals have been studied: Zn, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Cr, Co, Cd, Hg, As and Be. The most important and interesting results concerning both thermal treatment removal efficiency and associated human health risk assessments were achieved concerning Cd, Pb and Ni contaminants. The behavior of Cadmium (Cd, Lead (Pb and Nickel (Ni concentrations from heavy metals incineration soil has been analyzed for three incineration temperatures (600°C, 800°C and 1000°C and two resident times of soil within the incineration reactor (30 min. and 60 min.. In this case, the level of contaminants in the treated soil can be reduced but not enough to ensure an acceptable risk for human health.

  10. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  11. An integrated approach to risk-based remediation of a former bulk fuel storage facility adjacent a marine environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, L.; Hers, I. [Golder Associates Ltd., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    An integrated approach to risk-based remediation of a former bulk fuel storage facility adjacent to a marine environment was discussed. The presentation provided an introduction and illustration to the site location and history, located close to Skagway, Alaska and northwestern British Columbia. The site investigation and conceptual model were also presented. The remedial approach was also described with reference to a risk-based action approach, remedial objectives, soil vapour extraction (SVE)-bioventing, and air sparging-biosparging. The objectives were to minimize potential exposure to aquatic receptors by minimizing non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPL) mobility and dissolved transport of petroleum hydrocarbons. Groundwater modeling to assess the attenuation rate and to determine remedial targets was also discussed. Model validation and results of groundwater modeling as well as remediation system details and performance were then provided. It was determined that significant attenuation is occurring and that effective mass removal and concentrations have been decreasing over time. It was demonstrated that risk-based remedial goals and hydrogeology can change with land use/development. tabs., figs.

  12. Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

    2010-10-01

    Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

  13. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott

    2015-01-01

    We develop a novel risk assessment approach that integrates complementary, yet distinct, spatial modeling approaches currently used in wildfire risk assessment. Motivation for this work stems largely from limitations of existing stochastic wildfire simulation systems, which can generate pixel-based outputs of fire behavior as well as polygon-based outputs of simulated...

  14. Risk-based approach to appraise valve closure in the clam Corbicula fluminea in response to waterborne metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, C.-M.; Jou, L.-J.; Chen, B.-C.

    2005-01-01

    We developed a risk-based approach to assess how the valve closure behavior of Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea responds to waterborne copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd). We reanalyzed the valve closure response data from published literature to reconstruct the response time-dependent dose-response profiles based on an empirical three-parameter Hill equation model. We integrated probabilistic exposure profiles of measured environmental Cu and Cd concentrations in the western coastal areas of Taiwan with the reconstructed dose-response relationships at different integration times of response to quantitatively estimate the valve response risk. The risk assessment results implicate exposure to waterborne Cu and Cd may pose no significant risk to clam valve activity in the short-time response periods (e.g., <30 min), yet a relative high risk for valve closure response to waterborne Cu at response times greater than 120 min is alarming. We successfully linked reconstructed dose-response profiles and EC50-time relationships associated with the fitted daily valve opening/closing rhythm characterized by a three-parameter lognormal function to predict the time-varying bivalve closure rhythm response to waterborne metals. We parameterized the proposed predictive model that should encourage a risk-management framework for discussion of future design of biological monitoring systems. - A model was developed to link valve closure in clams to concentrations of metals in water

  15. The future of monitoring in clinical research - a holistic approach: linking risk-based monitoring with quality management principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansmann, Eva B; Hecht, Arthur; Henn, Doris K; Leptien, Sabine; Stelzer, Hans Günther

    2013-01-01

    Since several years risk-based monitoring is the new "magic bullet" for improvement in clinical research. Lots of authors in clinical research ranging from industry and academia to authorities are keen on demonstrating better monitoring-efficiency by reducing monitoring visits, monitoring time on site, monitoring costs and so on, always arguing with the use of risk-based monitoring principles. Mostly forgotten is the fact, that the use of risk-based monitoring is only adequate if all mandatory prerequisites at site and for the monitor and the sponsor are fulfilled.Based on the relevant chapter in ICH GCP (International Conference on Harmonisation of technical requirements for registration of pharmaceuticals for human use - Good Clinical Practice) this publication takes a holistic approach by identifying and describing the requirements for future monitoring and the use of risk-based monitoring. As the authors are operational managers as well as QA (Quality Assurance) experts, both aspects are represented to come up with efficient and qualitative ways of future monitoring according to ICH GCP.

  16. Expediting site closures using a risk-based corrective action approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sims, J.T.; Douthit, T.

    1995-01-01

    A new tool, the Risk Analysis Testing Laboratory (RATL), extends the opportunity for collection of high accuracy data on-site during the risk analysis and remediation feasibility stages of subsurface corrective action. The RATL system is driven by onboard data acquisition and processing hardware and software which provides necessary site parameters to determine potential exposure, prioritize sites, and if necessary, design remediation systems on-site in one mobilization. During the removal of underground storage tanks (USTs) at an abandoned service station facility, elevated concentrations of hydrocarbon compounds in the soils surrounding the USTs, as well as a hydrocarbon sheen were identified on the groundwater at the bottom of the UST excavation area. Although 1,000 tons of hydrocarbon-impacted soils had been removed from the UST area, the vertical and lateral extent of subsurface hydrocarbon impact had not been sufficiently delineated. Groundwater sampling was performed with a modified narrow diameter sampling device at 24 locations in a two day period. A total of 32 soil samples were collected in conjunction with groundwater sampling. The soil samples were field screened on-site using a photoionization detector (PID) for volatile organic compounds (VOC) and were classified by the site hydrogeologists. Based on the field screening, selected soil samples were submitted for GC analysis in the RATL

  17. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. A risk-based approach to optimize autologous hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) collection with the use of plerixafor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhyankar, S; DeJarnette, S; Aljitawi, O; Ganguly, S; Merkel, D; McGuirk, J

    2012-04-01

    Autologous hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transplant is an effective treatment for patients with hematological malignancies. Unfortunately, 15-30% of patients fail to mobilize a sufficient number of HSCs for the transplant. Plerixafor is now used as a salvage mobilization regimen, with good success. We describe here a risk-based approach for the use of plerixafor, based on the circulating CD34(+) cell count and the CD34(+) cell dose collected after 4 days of G-CSF, that identifies potential poor HSC mobilizers upfront. A total of 159 patients underwent HSC collections using this approach. Of these, 55 (35%) were identified as high risk owing to low CD34(+) cell number or low yield on day 1 of collection, and received plerixafor on the subsequent days of collection. Of the 159 patients, 151 (95%) were able to provide adequate collections with the first mobilization attempt in a median of 1.7 days using this approach. Of the eight who failed initial mobilization, 5 successfully underwent re-mobilization with plerixafor and G-CSF and 3 (1.9%) were mobilization failures. This approach helped to control the overall cost of HSC collections for our BMT program by decreasing the need for remobilization, reducing the number of collection days and avoiding the use of plerixafor in all patients.

  19. Emerging systems biology approaches in nanotoxicology: Towards a mechanism-based understanding of nanomaterial hazard and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Pedro M.; Fadeel, Bengt, E-mail: Bengt.Fadeel@ki.se

    2016-05-15

    Engineered nanomaterials are being developed for a variety of technological applications. However, the increasing use of nanomaterials in society has led to concerns about their potential adverse effects on human health and the environment. During the first decade of nanotoxicological research, the realization has emerged that effective risk assessment of the multitudes of new nanomaterials would benefit from a comprehensive understanding of their toxicological mechanisms, which is difficult to achieve with traditional, low-throughput, single end-point oriented approaches. Therefore, systems biology approaches are being progressively applied within the nano(eco)toxicological sciences. This novel paradigm implies that the study of biological systems should be integrative resulting in quantitative and predictive models of nanomaterial behaviour in a biological system. To this end, global ‘omics’ approaches with which to assess changes in genes, proteins, metabolites, etc. are deployed allowing for computational modelling of the biological effects of nanomaterials. Here, we highlight omics and systems biology studies in nanotoxicology, aiming towards the implementation of a systems nanotoxicology and mechanism-based risk assessment of nanomaterials. - Highlights: • Systems nanotoxicology is a multi-disciplinary approach to quantitative modelling. • Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics remain the most common methods. • Global “omics” techniques should be coupled to computational modelling approaches. • The discovery of nano-specific toxicity pathways and biomarkers is a prioritized goal. • Overall, experimental nanosafety research must endeavour reproducibility and relevance.

  20. Emerging systems biology approaches in nanotoxicology: Towards a mechanism-based understanding of nanomaterial hazard and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Pedro M.; Fadeel, Bengt

    2016-01-01

    Engineered nanomaterials are being developed for a variety of technological applications. However, the increasing use of nanomaterials in society has led to concerns about their potential adverse effects on human health and the environment. During the first decade of nanotoxicological research, the realization has emerged that effective risk assessment of the multitudes of new nanomaterials would benefit from a comprehensive understanding of their toxicological mechanisms, which is difficult to achieve with traditional, low-throughput, single end-point oriented approaches. Therefore, systems biology approaches are being progressively applied within the nano(eco)toxicological sciences. This novel paradigm implies that the study of biological systems should be integrative resulting in quantitative and predictive models of nanomaterial behaviour in a biological system. To this end, global ‘omics’ approaches with which to assess changes in genes, proteins, metabolites, etc. are deployed allowing for computational modelling of the biological effects of nanomaterials. Here, we highlight omics and systems biology studies in nanotoxicology, aiming towards the implementation of a systems nanotoxicology and mechanism-based risk assessment of nanomaterials. - Highlights: • Systems nanotoxicology is a multi-disciplinary approach to quantitative modelling. • Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics remain the most common methods. • Global “omics” techniques should be coupled to computational modelling approaches. • The discovery of nano-specific toxicity pathways and biomarkers is a prioritized goal. • Overall, experimental nanosafety research must endeavour reproducibility and relevance.

  1. A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

  2. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  3. Risk-based technical specifications: Development and application of an approach to the generation of a plant specific real-time risk model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puglia, B.; Gallagher, D.; Amico, P.; Atefi, B.

    1992-10-01

    This report describes a process developed to convert an existing PRA into a model amenable to real time, risk-based technical specification calculations. In earlier studies (culminating in NUREG/CR-5742), several risk-based approaches to technical specification were evaluated. A real-time approach using a plant specific PRA capable of modeling plant configurations as they change was identified as the most comprehensive approach to control plant risk. A master fault tree logic model representative of-all of the core damage sequences was developed. Portions of the system fault trees were modularized and supercomponents comprised of component failures with similar effects were developed to reduce the size of the model and, quantification times. Modifications to the master fault tree logic were made to properly model the effect of maintenance and recovery actions. Fault trees representing several actuation systems not modeled in detail in the existing PRA were added to the master fault tree logic. This process was applied to the Surry NUREG-1150 Level 1 PRA. The master logic mode was confirmed. The model was then used to evaluate frequency associated with several plant configurations using the IRRAS code. For all cases analyzed computational time was less than three minutes. This document Volume 2, contains appendices A, B, and C. These provide, respectively: Surry Technical Specifications Model Database, Surry Technical Specifications Model, and a list of supercomponents used in the Surry Technical Specifications Model

  4. Incidental Affective State and Financial Risk: Beyond a Valence-Based Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Galentino Andrea; Bonini Nicolao

    2014-01-01

    Standard economic models explain decision-making under risk as a methodical utility maximization process. Developments in cognitive psychology and neuroeconomics show the volatility of such conceptualization highlighting human bounded rationality and discussing the role of decision makers' affective state in cognitive evaluations of risk ("risk as feelings"). Affective influences may be elicited by the decision process itself (integral affect) or might be associated with stimuli/events unrela...

  5. Identification of target risk groups for population-based Clostridium difficile infection prevention strategies using a population attributable risk approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Sung-Hee; Kang, Hye-Young

    2018-01-01

    We aimed to determine risk factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and assess the contributions of these factors on CDI burden. We conducted a 1:4 matched case-control study using a national claims dataset. Cases were incident CDI without a history of CDI in the previous 84 days, and were age- and sex-matched with control patients. We ascertained exposure, defined as a history of morbidities and drug use within 90 days. The population attributable risk (PAR) percent for risk factors was estimated using odds ratios (ORs) obtained from the case-control study. Overall, the strongest CDI-associated risk factors, which have significant contributions to the CDI burden as well, were the experience of gastroenteritis (OR=5.08, PAR%=17.09%) and use of antibiotics (OR=1.69, PAR%=19.00%), followed by the experiences of female pelvic infection, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, and pneumonia, and use of proton-pump inhibitors (OR=1.52-2.37, PAR%=1.95-2.90). The control of risk factors that had strong association with CDI and affected large proportions of total CDI cases would be beneficial for CDI prevention. We suggest performing CDI testing for symptomatic patients with gastroenteritis and implementing antibiotics stewardship. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. The management of uncertainties in the French regulation on deep disposal: the development of a non-risk based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raimbault, P.

    2004-01-01

    The development of a safety case for disposal of high level and medium level long-lived waste in a geological formation has to handle two main difficulties: - uncertainties associated to natural systems; - uncertainties associated to the consideration of long time scales. Licensing of the different steps leading to geological disposal implies thus that a sufficient level of confidence in the safety case will be obtained, at each step, among the different stakeholders. The confidence in the safety case relies on the whole set of arguments of different natures which complement each other and build up the file. This means that, to be defensible, the safety case should be organised in such a way that it can be reviewed and scrutinized in a structured manner. This also means that individual elements of the safety case will have to be considered separately even if all elements should fit well in the integrated safety case. This segregation implies some inherent decoupling of parts of the system, of its evolution over time and of the events that may impact on it. This decoupling will thus introduce inherent uncertainties that risk or non-risk based approaches have to deal with since both approaches have to introduce transparency in the analysis. In the non-risk based or deterministic approach this segregation is pushed further in order to put into perspective the different elements of appreciation that allow to judge the safety case as a whole. The French regulation on deep disposal presented in the basic safety rule RFS III.3.f, issued in 1991, takes these points into consideration to set the basis for the safety case in the framework of a deterministic approach. This basic safety rule is currently being revised in order to clarify some concepts and to take account evolution of ideas at the national and international level. However the basic rationale behind the safety assessment methodology will remain the same. The approach presented in RFS III.2.f implies that at

  7. Comparison of API 510 pressure vessels inspection planning with API 581 risk-based inspection planning approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shishesaz, Mohammad Reza; Nazarnezhad Bajestani, Mohammad; Hashemi, Seyed Javad; Shekari, Elahe

    2013-01-01

    To ensure mechanical integrity, all pressure vessels shall be inspected at the intervals provided in inspection codes or based on a risk-based inspection (RBI) assessment. The RBI assessment may allow previously established inspection intervals to be extended. This paper describes the methodology, analysis and results of two RBI studies conducted on 293 pressure vessel components in two crude oil distillation units. Based on API RBI methodology in API 581 (2008), risk target concept was used for determining inspection dates. It was shown that when thinning is the major active damage, the RBI recommended intervals are as long as twice the API 510 intervals. This paper summarizes that, as a fundamental step in the risk calculation, RBI has a more defined methodology for evaluating equipment for multiple damage mechanisms and a more defined approach to specify the use of other inspection technologies beyond the traditional visual, ultrasonic, and radiography tests. -- Highlights: • RBI calculated inspection intervals are as long as twice of API 510 inspection code. • Two case studies verified the advantage of RBI in inspection planning. • RBI is a more reliable methodology when evaluating multiple damage mechanisms. • Damage factor calculations can be used for determining RSFa value in FFS assessments

  8. A risk-based approach to sanitary sewer pipe asset management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baah, Kelly; Dubey, Brajesh; Harvey, Richard; McBean, Edward

    2015-02-01

    Wastewater collection systems are an important component of proper management of wastewater to prevent environmental and human health implications from mismanagement of anthropogenic waste. Due to aging and inadequate asset management practices, the wastewater collection assets of many cities around the globe are in a state of rapid decline and in need of urgent attention. Risk management is a tool which can help prioritize resources to better manage and rehabilitate wastewater collection systems. In this study, a risk matrix and a weighted sum multi-criteria decision-matrix are used to assess the consequence and risk of sewer pipe failure for a mid-sized city, using ArcGIS. The methodology shows that six percent of the uninspected sewer pipe assets of the case study have a high consequence of failure while four percent of the assets have a high risk of failure and hence provide priorities for inspection. A map incorporating risk of sewer pipe failure and consequence is developed to facilitate future planning, rehabilitation and maintenance programs. The consequence of failure assessment also includes a novel failure impact factor which captures the effect of structurally defective stormwater pipes on the failure assessment. The methodology recommended in this study can serve as a basis for future planning and decision making and has the potential to be universally applied by municipal sewer pipe asset managers globally to effectively manage the sanitary sewer pipe infrastructure within their jurisdiction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Training resilience for high-risk environments: Towards a strenght-based approach within the military

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boermans, S.M.; Delahaij, R.; Korteling, J.E.; Euwema, M.C.

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we introduced the concept of resilience as especially relevant for soldiers as they nowadays operate in cumulative stressful environments. Resilience is different from traditional approaches to building, maintaining and restoring soldiers’ adaptation capabilities, because it focuses

  10. Achieving continuous improvement in reductions in foodborne listeriosis: A risk-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, Lone

    2005-01-01

    likely due to consumption of contaminated soft cheeses such as queso fresco and queso blanco. The International Life Sciences Institute Risk Science Institute Expert Panel concluded that certain foods pose a high risk for causing listeriosis. High-risk foods have all of the following properties: (1) have...... the potential for contamination with L. monocytogenes; (2) support the growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers; (3) are ready to eat; (4) require refrigeration; and (5) are stored for an extended period of time. Control strategies are needed in the food chain from preharvest through consumption to minimize...... the likelihood that food will become contaminated by L. monocytogenes and to prevent the growth of the organism to high numbers. The Expert Panel identified three main strategies for ensuring continuous improvement in reducing foodborne listeriosis: (1) preventing contamination of foods with L. monocytogenes; (2...

  11. Developing Educational Materials about Risks on Social Network Sites: A Design Based Research Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoven, Ellen; Schellens, Tammy; Vanderlinde, Ruben; Valcke, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Nearly all of today's Western teenagers have a profile on a social network site (SNS). As many risks have been reported, researchers and governments have emphasized the role of school education to teach teenagers how to deal safely with SNSs. However, little is known about the specific characteristics which would make interventions effective.…

  12. Beyond risk and protective factors: An adaptation-based approach to resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellis, B.J.; Bianchi, J.G.; Griskevicius, V.; Frankenhuis, W.E.

    2017-01-01

    How does repeated or chronic childhood adversity shape social and cognitive abilities? According to the prevailing deficit model, children from high-stress backgrounds are at risk for impairments in learning and behavior, and the intervention goal is to prevent, reduce, or repair the damage. Missing

  13. A risk-based approach for evaluation of hygiene performance at pig slaughter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Anne Mette; Nauta, Maarten; Hald, Tine

    2016-01-01

    and Salmonella was used as basis for developing a quantitative risk assessment model for Salmonella, using the level E. coli as model input. The model output associated the hygiene performance with a relative risk estimate of human salmonellosis. The overall objective was to develop a decision support tool....... The samples were analysed quantitatively for E. coli and semi-quantitatively for Salmonella. A positive association between the number of E. coli on carcasses and the prevalence of Salmonella positive carcasses was shown. For carcasses positive for Salmonella, a positive association was also shown between...... the number of E. coli and the number of Salmonella on the carcass. As no biological association has been reported between faecal shedding of E. coli and presence of Salmonella, the relationship was considered to be associated with the level of faecal contamination. The positive association between E. coli...

  14. Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

    2017-11-06

    The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

  15. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  16. Modelling domestic stock energy use and heat-related health risk : a GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavrogianni, A.; Davies, M. [Univ. College London, London (United Kingdom). Bartlett School of Graduate Studies; Chalabi, Z.; Wilkinson, P. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (United Kingdom); Kolokotroni, M. [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). School of Engineering Design

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 8 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions produced in the United Kingdom are produced in London, one of the fastest growing cities worldwide. Based on the projected rates of population and economic growth, a 15 per cent increase of emissions is predicted. In addition to the national target to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the Mayor of London Climate Change Action Plan set a target to reduce London's CO{sub 2} emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Significant carbon savings can be achieved in the building sector, particularly since 38 per cent of the total delivered energy in London is associated with domestic energy use. This paper demonstrated a systematic approach towards exploring the impact of urban built form and the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon on the levels of domestic energy consumption and heat-related health risk in London. It presented work in progress on the development of a GIS-based energy consumption model and heat vulnerability index of the Greater London Area domestic stock. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study areas with topdown energy statistics revealed that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic space heating demand. The health module can be used to determine environments prone to higher risk of heat stress by investigating urban texture factors. A newly developed epidemiological model will be feed into the health module to examine the influence on risk of heat-related mortality of local urban built form characteristics. The epidemiological model is based on multi-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave and non-heat wave days. 29 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  17. Risk management framework a lab-based approach to securing information systems

    CERN Document Server

    Broad, James

    2013-01-01

    The RMF allows an organization to develop an organization-wide risk framework that reduces the resources required to authorize a systems operation. Use of the RMF will help organizations maintain compliance with not only FISMA and OMB requirements but can also be tailored to meet other compliance requirements such as Payment Card Industry (PCI) or Sarbanes Oxley (SOX). With the publishing of NIST SP 800-37 in 2010 and the move of the Intelligence Community and Department of Defense to modified versions of this process, clear implementation guidance is needed to help individuals correctly im

  18. An evidence-based approach to breastfeeding neonates at risk for hypoglycemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csont, Georgia Lowmaster; Groth, Susan; Hopkins, Patrick; Guillet, Ronnie

    2014-01-01

    The revised standard of care for breastfeeding infants at risk of developing hypoglycemia during transitioning to extrauterine life was developed using the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) 2011 hypoglycemia guidelines, the Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine protocol, and staff input. A pre/postimplementation chart audit indicated support of infant safety by glucose stabilization, breastfeeding within the first hour of life, and breastfeeding frequency without an increase in blood sampling, formula use, or admissions to the special care nursery. © 2014 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  19. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  20. A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.

    2014-03-01

    Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of "no trend" and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

  1. Promoting Service User Inclusion in Risk Assessment and Management: A Pilot Project Developing a Human Rights-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhill, Beth; Whitehead, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Recent reports highlight the extent to which many people with learning disabilities are not afforded access to their basic human rights. In addition, traditional approaches to risk management often focus on professional assessments of risks and challenging behaviour and exclude service user perspectives. In this paper, we outline what we believe…

  2. A Risk-based, Practice-centered Approach to Project Management for HPCMP CREATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-05

    form of videoconferencing. These impediments have been mitigated to some extent by using browser-based Software as a Service ( SaaS ) access to CREATE...one-time password (OTP), and OpenID. Security is managed within the DREN, as opposed to every desktop. As a “Software as a Service” ( SaaS

  3. Ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils for the definition of soil screening values: A comparison between substance-based and matrix-based approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivato, Alberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Manachini, Barbara; Vanin, Stefano; Raga, Roberto; Beggio, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The Italian legislation on contaminated soils does not include the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) and this deficiency has important consequences for the sustainable management of agricultural soils. The present research compares the results of two ERA procedures applied to agriculture (i) one based on the "substance-based" approach and (ii) a second based on the "matrix-based" approach. In the former the soil screening values (SVs) for individual substances were derived according to institutional foreign guidelines. In the latter, the SVs characterizing the whole-matrix were derived originally by the authors by means of experimental activity. The results indicate that the "matrix-based" approach can be efficiently implemented in the Italian legislation for the ERA of agricultural soils. This method, if compared to the institutionalized "substance based" approach is (i) comparable in economic terms and in testing time, (ii) is site specific and assesses the real effect of the investigated soil on a battery of bioassays, (iii) accounts for phenomena that may radically modify the exposure of the organisms to the totality of contaminants and (iv) can be considered sufficiently conservative.

  4. Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alajlouni, Abdalmajeed M; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebastiaan; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M C M

    2016-11-16

    Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment was performed based on equal potency of all alkenylbenzenes or using a so-called toxic equivalency (TEQ) approach through defining toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for the different alkenylbenzenes. The EDI values resulting from consuming one cup of tea a day were 0.2-10.1 μg/kg bw for the individual alkenylbenzenes, 0.6-13.1 μg/kg bw for the sum of the alkenylbenzenes, and 0.3-10.7 μg safrole equiv/kg bw for the sum of alkenylbenzenes when expressed in safrole equivalents. The margin of exposure (MOE) values obtained were generally <10000, indicating a concern if the teas would be consumed on a daily basis over longer periods of time.

  5. Toxicity testing in the 21 century: defining new risk assessment approaches based on perturbation of intracellular toxicity pathways.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudin Bhattacharya

    Full Text Available The approaches to quantitatively assessing the health risks of chemical exposure have not changed appreciably in the past 50 to 80 years, the focus remaining on high-dose studies that measure adverse outcomes in homogeneous animal populations. This expensive, low-throughput approach relies on conservative extrapolations to relate animal studies to much lower-dose human exposures and is of questionable relevance to predicting risks to humans at their typical low exposures. It makes little use of a mechanistic understanding of the mode of action by which chemicals perturb biological processes in human cells and tissues. An alternative vision, proposed by the U.S. National Research Council (NRC report Toxicity Testing in the 21(st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, called for moving away from traditional high-dose animal studies to an approach based on perturbation of cellular responses using well-designed in vitro assays. Central to this vision are (a "toxicity pathways" (the innate cellular pathways that may be perturbed by chemicals and (b the determination of chemical concentration ranges where those perturbations are likely to be excessive, thereby leading to adverse health effects if present for a prolonged duration in an intact organism. In this paper we briefly review the original NRC report and responses to that report over the past 3 years, and discuss how the change in testing might be achieved in the U.S. and in the European Union (EU. EU initiatives in developing alternatives to animal testing of cosmetic ingredients have run very much in parallel with the NRC report. Moving from current practice to the NRC vision would require using prototype toxicity pathways to develop case studies showing the new vision in action. In this vein, we also discuss how the proposed strategy for toxicity testing might be applied to the toxicity pathways associated with DNA damage and repair.

  6. Appraisement and benchmarking of third-party logistic service provider by exploration of risk-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Sahu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present era, Reverse Logistics Support has monitored as a momentous realm, where stuffs are transferred from point of consumption to origin. The companies who provide the logistic equipments, i.e. Truck, Joseph Cyril Bomford, and Shipment, etc. to its partner’s firms called Third-Party Logistics (3PL service provider. Today, the feasible 3PL service provider evaluation-opt problem is yet an amorous dilemma. The appraisement and benchmarking of logistics service providers in extent of index; allied risk-based indices and their interrelated metrics; outlooked as a great tool for each international firm, in order that firm could obtain their core goals. The novelty of manuscript is that here, a hairy-based approach has been integrated and then implemented upon a novel developed multi hierarchical third-party logistics (3PL service providers appraisement index in purpose to umpire the 3PL provider for their strong and ill’s core indices. Moreover, the overall score (Si system has also been carried out for benchmarking the 3PL provider companies, where s1 has been found as the best 3PL service provider. The developed approach enabled the manager of firms to make the verdict towards the best inclusive evaluation process of 3PL performance appraisement and benchmarking. A numerical illustration has also been provided to validate the verdict support system.

  7. Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Scolobig

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-risk environments are characterized by domino effects that often amplify the overall risk. Those include chains of hazardous events and increasing vulnerability, among other types of correlations within the risk process. The recently developed methods for multi-hazard and risk assessment integrate interactions between different risks by using harmonized procedures based on common metrics. While the products of these assessments, such as multi-hazard and -risk indexes, maps, cascade scenarios, or warning systems provide innovative and effective information, they also pose specific challenges to policy makers and practitioners due to their novel cross-disciplinary aspects. In this paper we discuss the institutional barriers to the adoption of multi-risk approaches, summarizing the results of the fieldwork conducted in Italy and Guadeloupe and of workshops with disaster risk reduction practitioners from eleven European countries. Results show the need for a clear identification of responsibilities for the implementation of multi-risk approaches, as institutional frameworks for risk reduction remain to this day primarily single-risk centered. Authorities are rarely officially responsible for the management of domino effects between e.g., tsunamis and industrial accidents, earthquake and landslides, floods and electricity network failures. Other barriers for the implementation of multi-risk approaches include the limited measures to reduce exposure at the household level, inadequate financial capacities at the local level and limited public-private partnerships, especially in case of interactions between natural and industrial risks. Adapting the scale of institutions to that of multi-risk environments remains a major challenge to better mainstream multi-risk approaches into policy. To address it, we propose a multi-risk governance framework, which includes the phases of observation, social and institutional context analysis, generation of

  8. Risk of Monozygotic Twins After Assisted Reproduction: A Population-Based Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parazzini, Fabio; Cipriani, Sonia; Bianchi, Stefano; Bulfoni, Camilla; Bortolus, Renata; Somigliana, Edgardo

    2016-02-01

    Recent studies have suggested that ovarian stimulation and assisted reproductive techniques (ART) may increase the frequency of monozygotic twins. In this article, we present the analysis of the estimated frequency of twin deliveries following in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Lombardy during the period 2010-2014 for a total of 450,949 pregnancies. This is a population-based study using data from the regional data base of Lombardy, a northern Italian region with a population of about 10 million inhabitants. During the considered period, a total of 461,424 single or multiple births were registered in Lombardy. After exclusion of triplets or more pregnancies, the total number of twin deliveries, in separate strata of like and unlike sex pregnancies twin deliveries, were obtained and the rate of twin deliveries was computed according to spontaneous and non-spontaneous conception and type of ART. Further, estimates of dizygotic or monozygotic twin births were calculated using Weinberg's methods. The frequency of twins deliveries was 1.24/100 deliveries after natural conception and 20.05 after assisted conception. The estimated rates of monozygotic twins was 0.45 and 0.72/100 (95% CI: 0.58-0.91) deliveries after natural and assisted conception, respectively. This difference was statistically significant (p assisted than after natural conception.

  9. A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...

  10. A Multi-Risk Approach to Climate Change Adaptation, Based on an Analysis of South Korean Newspaper Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngeun Kang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks caused by climate change are worsening worldwide, and it is recognized that national and regional responses to climate change are essential. This study therefore explores climate change risks that have been recognized as fatal to people and the environment by analyzing multi-influence factors that appear in multiple risk indicators. The climate change risks in this study are based on 73 existing risk indicators; the frame data for multi-influence risk factors are based on 3098 newspaper articles published over 24 years on the impact of climate change in South Korea. The main outcomes for this study were finding climate change risk trend from newspaper articles regarding climate change impacts through text-mining, and figuring out the multi-risk indicators that are likely to occur at the same time with other risk indicators using network analysis. From the network analysis, we found that the major risk indicators have a high degree of interrelationship among risk indicators, including “increase in mortality rate from disaster”, “increase in flood areas due to coastal flooding”, and “destruction of repair facilities due to flooding (river bank, etc.”. The main risk indicators derived from this study can therefore be used as a reasonable standard when identifying the main risks posed by climate change and defining future adaptation planning priorities.

  11. Models of evaluating efficiency and risks on integration of cloud-base IT-services of the machine-building enterprise: a system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razumnikov, S.; Kurmanbay, A.

    2016-04-01

    The present paper suggests a system approach to evaluation of the effectiveness and risks resulted from the integration of cloud-based services in a machine-building enterprise. This approach makes it possible to estimate a set of enterprise IT applications and choose the applications to be migrated to the cloud with regard to specific business requirements, a technological strategy and willingness to risk.

  12. Development of advanced risk informed asset management tool based on system dynamics approach for nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Gyoung Cheol

    2007-02-01

    In the competitive circumstance of electricity industry, the economic efficiency of electricity generation facility is the most important factor to increase their competitiveness. For nuclear power plant (NPP), safety is also an essential factor. Over fast several years, efforts for development of safety concerned and financial asset maximizing method, process and tools have been continued internationally and Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) methodology is suggested by Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). This RIAM methodology is expected to provide plant operators with a project prioritization and life cycle management planning tool for making long-term maintenance plans, guiding plant budgeting, and determining the sensitivity of a plant's economic risk to the reliability and availability of system, structure, and components (SSC), as well as other technical and economic parameters. The focus of this study is to develop model that help us to resource allocation, to find what effect such allocations on the plant economic and safety performance. Detailed research process for this goal is as follow; First step for development of advanced RIAM model is to review for current RIAM model of EPRI. This part describes the overall RIAM methodology including its conceptual model, implementation process, modular approach etc. Second step is to perform feasibility study for current EPRI's RIAM model with case study. This part shows the result of feasibility study for current RIAM method by case study and discussion for result. Finally, concept of Advanced RIAM model is developed based on system dynamics approach and parameter relationship is formulated. In advanced RIAM Model, Identification of scheduled maintenance effect on other parameters and the relationship between PM Activity and failure rate is most important factor. In this study, these relationships are formulated based on system dynamics approach. Creations of these modeling tool using Vensim

  13. Evaluating Effects of Marine Energy Devices on the Marine Environment - A Risk-Based and In-Water Testing Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harker-Klimes, G.; Copping, A. E.

    2016-02-01

    The portfolio of emerging renewables includes generating power from offshore winds, tides, waves, and ocean currents, as well as seawater temperature and salinity differentials. These new systems are collectively known as marine renewable energy (MRE). MRE development worldwide is in the early stages of design, deployment, and commercialization. A major barrier to bringing these systems into commercial use is the need to overcome uncertainties in environmental effects that slow siting and permitting of devices. Using a risk-based approach, this paper will discuss pathways for evaluating potential effects of tidal turbines and wave energy converters (WECs) on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes. Using basic biological principles and knowledge of specific MRE technologies, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System has been used to narrow pertinent risks from devices, enabling laboratory and field studies to focus on the most important interactions. These interactions, include: potential collisions and behavioral disturbances of marine mammals, fish and other organisms; effects of underwater sound on animal communication and navigation; changes in sediment transport, benthic habitats, and water quality constituents; and effects of electromagnetic fields on animals. It is then necessary to apply these findings to the projects themselves. Another uncertainty is how to measure these key interactions in high-energy locations where MRE deployment is desirable. Consequently, new systems are being developed: instrumentation, innovative platforms for deployment, and new management strategies for collecting and analyzing very large data streams. Inherent in this development pathway is the need to test, deploy, and calibrate these monitoring systems. The Triton initiative is designed to enable this development, and has initiated testing of devices in Washington State to move the MRE industry forward while protecting marine animals, habitats and processes.

  14. Multi-hazard risk assessment of coastal vulnerability from tropical cyclones - A GIS based approach for the Odisha coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, Bishnupriya; Bhaskaran, Prasad K

    2018-01-15

    The coastal region bordering the East coast of India is a thickly populated belt exposed to high risk and vulnerability from natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone frequencies that develop over the Bay of Bengal (average of 5-6 per year) region are much higher as compared to the Arabian Sea thereby posing a high risk factor associated with storm surge, inland inundation, wind gust, intense rainfall, etc. The Odisha State in the East coast of India experiences the highest number of cyclone strikes as compared to West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. To express the destructive potential resulting from tropical cyclones the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is a widely used metric globally. A recent study indicates that PDI for cyclones in the present decade have increased about six times as compared to the past. Hence there is a need to precisely ascertain the coastal vulnerability and risk factors associated with high intense cyclones expected in a changing climate. As such there are no comprehensive studies attempted so far on the determination of Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for Odisha coast that is highly prone to cyclone strikes. With this motivation, the present study makes an attempt to investigate the physical, environmental, social, and economic impacts on coastal vulnerability associated with tropical cyclones for the Odisha coast. The study also investigates the futuristic projection of coastal vulnerability over this region expected in a changing climate scenario. Eight fair weather parameters along with storm surge height and onshore inundation were used to estimate the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI). Thereafter, the PVI along with social, economic, and environmental vulnerability was used to determine the overall CVI using the GIS based approach. The authors believe that the comprehensive nature of this study is expected to benefit coastal zone management authorities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  16. Level of Alkenylbenzenes in Parsley and Dill Based Teas and Associated Risk Assessment Using the Margin of Exposure Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alajlouni, Abdul; Al-Malahmeh, Amer J.; Isnaeni, Farida Nur; Wesseling, Sebas; Vervoort, Jacques; Rietjens, Ivonne M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment of parsley and dill based teas that contain alkenylbenzenes was performed. To this end the estimated daily intake (EDI) of alkenylbenzenes resulting from use of the teas was quantified. Since most teas appeared to contain more than one alkenylbenzene, a combined risk assessment

  17. MRI and mammography surveillance of women at increased risk for breast cancer: recommendations using an evidence-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granader, Elon J; Dwamena, Ben; Carlos, Ruth C

    2008-12-01

    To evaluate breast cancer screening with mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in high-risk populations, including women with the BRCA mutation, using an evidence-based approach. The MEDLINE, PubMed, EBM Reviews, ACP Journal Club, Cochrane Database MEDSEARCH, and SCOPUS databases were accessed and searched for articles up to August 2007. Articles were collected using the following terms and medical subject headings (MeSH) that applied to the focused clinical question: "BRCA1" and "BRCA2" with "mammography," "MRI," "prevention," "screening," and "surveillance." References from retrieved articles were also used to identify relevant papers. Abstracts were screened and relevant papers retrieved. Retrieved papers were graded for quality. Summary performance measures were obtained by random effects modeling of study-specific performance estimates and standard errors derived from the multiple 2 x 2 tables. Additionally, studies meeting the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine level 2b quality were reviewed. In women with an increased risk without the BRCA gene, cancer detection rates by MRI were 0.011 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.003-0.019), by mammography 0.005 (95% CI 0.002-0.008), and by a combination of both, 0.012 (95% CI 0.004-0.020). False-positive rates by MRI, mammography, or a combination of both were 0.10 (95% CI 0.03-0.18), 0.05 (95% CI 0.03-0.06), and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.24). In BRCA positive women, cancer detection rates by MRI were 0.027 (95% CI 0.015-0.040), by mammography 0.010 (95% CI 0.005-0.016), and by a combination of both 0.031 (95% CI 0.018-0.045). False-positive rates by MRI, mammography, or a combination of both were 0.10 (95% CI 0.01-0.19), 0.05 (95% CI 0.03-0.07), and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.24), respectively. The data support an essential role for screening MRI in women with an increased risk for breast cancer.

  18. A completely new design and regulatory process - A risk-based approach for new nuclear power plants. Annex 17

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2002-01-01

    In the de-regulated electric power market place that is developing in the USA, competition from alternative electric power sources has provided significant downward pressure on the costs of new construction projects. Studies by the Electric Power Research Institute have shown that, in the USA, the capital cost of new nuclear plants must be decreased by at least 35% to 40% relative to the cost of Advanced Light Water Reactors designed in the early 1990s in order to be competitive with capital costs of gas-fired electric power plants. The underlying reasons for the high capital costs estimated for some nuclear plants are (1) long construction times, (2) the high level of 'defense-in-depth' or safety margin, included throughout the design and licensing process, and (3) the use of out-dated design methods and information. Probabilistic Safety Assessments are being used to develop a more accurate assessment of real plant risk and to provide relief if it can be demonstrated that plant equipment is not providing a significant contribution to plant safety. Westinghouse addressed some of these cost drivers in the development of the AP-600 passive plant design. However, because of relatively inexpensive natural gas plant alternative, we need to reduce the costs even further. Therefore, the AP-600 design is now being up-rated to a 1000 MWe design, AP-1000. The development of AP1000 is described in another paper being presented at this meeting. Westinghouse is also managing a project, sponsored by the US Department of Energy, which is aimed at developing an all-new 'risk-based' approach to design and regulation. Methodologies being developed use risk-based information to the extent practical and 'defense-in-depth' only when necessary to address uncertainties in models and equipment performance. Early results, summarized in this paper, include (1) the initial framework for a new design and regulatory process and (2) a sample design analysis which shows that the Emergency Core

  19. Ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils for the definition of soil screening values: A comparison between substance-based and matrix-based approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Pivato

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Italian legislation on contaminated soils does not include the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA and this deficiency has important consequences for the sustainable management of agricultural soils. The present research compares the results of two ERA procedures applied to agriculture (i one based on the “substance-based” approach and (ii a second based on the “matrix-based” approach. In the former the soil screening values (SVs for individual substances were derived according to institutional foreign guidelines. In the latter, the SVs characterizing the whole-matrix were derived originally by the authors by means of experimental activity.The results indicate that the “matrix-based” approach can be efficiently implemented in the Italian legislation for the ERA of agricultural soils. This method, if compared to the institutionalized “substance based” approach is (i comparable in economic terms and in testing time, (ii is site specific and assesses the real effect of the investigated soil on a battery of bioassays, (iii accounts for phenomena that may radically modify the exposure of the organisms to the totality of contaminants and (iv can be considered sufficiently conservative. Keyword: Environmental science

  20. A risk modelling approach for setting process hygiene criteria for Salmonella in pork cutting plants, based on enterococci

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Anne Mette; Hansen, Tina Beck; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    Pork is known to be a key source of foodborne salmonellosis. Processing steps from slaughter to cutting and retail contribute to the Salmonella consumer exposure. In two extensive surveys comprising a total of 5,310 pork samples, cuttings and minced meat were analysed semiquantitatively for Salmo......Pork is known to be a key source of foodborne salmonellosis. Processing steps from slaughter to cutting and retail contribute to the Salmonella consumer exposure. In two extensive surveys comprising a total of 5,310 pork samples, cuttings and minced meat were analysed semiquantitatively...... for Salmonella and quantitatively for the hygiene indicator enterococci. The samples were collected in 2001/2002 and 2010/2011 in Danish cutting plants, retail supermarkets and butcher shops. A positive correlation between prevalence of Salmonella and number of enterococci was shown (Hansen et al., 2013......). As enterococci and Salmonella share a lower growth limit around 5°C, the positive correlation could imply that the meat had been exposed to temperatures above 5°C. Based on these findings, the objective of this study was to develop an approach for setting process hygiene criteria for predicting Salmonella risk...

  1. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn

    2013-01-01

    for older individuals. When non-CVD mortality was assumed unaffected by smoking status, the absolute risk reduction due to statin treatment ranged from 0.0% to 3.5%, whereas the gain in expected residual lifetime ranged from 3 to 11 months. Statin effectiveness increased for non-smokers and declined...... pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

  2. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  3. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  4. Use of Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) with High Throughput Exposure Predictions as a Risk-Based Screening Approach to Prioritize More Than Seven Thousand Chemicals (ASCCT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here, we present results of an approach for risk-based prioritization using the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) combined with high-throughput exposure (HTE) modelling. We started with 7968 chemicals with calculated population median oral daily intakes characterized by an...

  5. A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon

    2012-01-01

    Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...

  6. Flood Risk Analysis in Lower Part of Markham River Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Approach (MCDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sailesh Samanta

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Papua New Guinea is blessed with a plethora of enviable natural resources, but at the same time it is also cursed by quite a few natural disasters like volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslide, floods, droughts etc. Floods happen to be a natural process of maintaining the health of the rivers and depth of its thalweg; it saves the river from becoming morbid while toning up the fertility of the riverine landscape. At the same time, from human perspective, all these ecological goodies are nullified when flood is construed overwhelmingly as one of the most devastating events in respect to social and economic consequences. The present investigation was tailored to assess the use of multi-criteria decision approach (MCDA in inland flood risk analysis. Categorization of possible flood risk zones was accomplished using geospatial data sets, like elevation, slope, distance to river, and land use/land cover, which were derived from digital elevation model (DEM and satellite image, respectively. A pilot study area was selected in the lower part of Markham River in Morobe Province, Papua New Guinea. The study area is bounded by 146°31′ to 146°58′ east and 6°33′ to 6°46′ south; covers an area of 758.30 km2. The validation of a flood hazard risk map was carried out using past flood records in the study area. This result suggests that MCDA within GIS techniques is very useful in accurate and reliable flood risk analysis and mapping. This approach is convenient for the assessment of flood in any region, specifically in no-data regions, and can be useful for researchers and planners in flood mitigation strategies.

  7. Aspirin and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Approach Based on Individualized, Integrated Estimation of Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Massimo; Battistoni, Allegra; Gallo, Giovanna; Coluccia, Roberta; De Caterina, Raffaele

    2017-09-01

    While the use of aspirin in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) is well established, aspirin in primary prevention is not systematically recommended because the absolute CV event reduction is similar to the absolute excess in major bleedings. Recently, emerging evidence suggests the possibility that the assumption of aspirin, may also be effective in the prevention of cancer. By adding to the CV prevention benefits the potential beneficial effect of aspirin in reducing the incidence of mortality and cancer could tip the balance between risks and benefits of aspirin therapy in the primary prevention in favour of the latter and broaden the indication for treatment with in populations at average risk. While prospective and randomized study are currently investigating the effect of aspirin in prevention of both cancer and CVD, clinical efforts at the individual level to promote the use of aspirin in global (or total) primary prevention could be already based on a balanced evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio.

  8. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  9. Risk-based probabilistic approach to assess the impact of false mussel invasions on farmed hard clams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Ju, Yun-Ru; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu

    2010-02-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide a risk-based predictive model to assess the impact of false mussel Mytilopsis sallei invasions on hard clam Meretrix lusoria farms in the southwestern region of Taiwan. The actual spread of invasive false mussel was predicted by using analytical models based on advection-diffusion and gravity models. The proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation by false mussel were used to characterize risk estimates. A mortality model was parameterized to assess hard clam mortality risk characterized by false mussel density and infestation intensity. The published data were reanalyzed to parameterize a predictive threshold model described by a cumulative Weibull distribution function that can be used to estimate the exceeding thresholds of proportion of hard clam colonized and infestation. Results indicated that the infestation thresholds were 2-17 ind clam(-1) for adult hard clams, whereas 4 ind clam(-1) for nursery hard clams. The average colonization thresholds were estimated to be 81-89% for cultivated and nursery hard clam farms, respectively. Our results indicated that false mussel density and infestation, which caused 50% hard clam mortality, were estimated to be 2,812 ind m(-2) and 31 ind clam(-1), respectively. This study further indicated that hard clam farms that are close to the coastal area have at least 50% probability for 43% mortality caused by infestation. This study highlighted that a probabilistic risk-based framework characterized by probability distributions and risk curves is an effective representation of scientific assessments for farmed hard clam in response to the nonnative false mussel invasion.

  10. Approach and issues toward development of risk-based release standards for radioactive scrap metal recycle and reuse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Nieves, L.A.; Nabelssi, B.K.; LePoire, D.J.

    1994-01-01

    The decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities is expected to generate large amounts of slightly radioactive scrap metal (RSM). It is likely that some of these materials will be suitable for recycling and reuse. The amount of scrap steel from DOE facilities, for instance, is estimated to be more than one million tons (Hertzler 1993). However, under current practice and without the establishment of acceptable recycling standards, the RSM would be disposed of primarily as radioactive low-level waste (LLW). In the United States, no specific standards have been developed for the unrestricted release of bulk contaminated materials. Although standards for unrestricted release of radioactive surface contamination (NRC 1974) have existed for about 20 years, the release of materials is not commonly practiced because of the lack of risk-based justifications. Recent guidance from international bodies (IAEA 1988) has established a basis for deriving risk-based release limits for radioactive materials. It is important, therefore, to evaluate the feasibility of recycling and associated issues necessary for the establishment of risk-based release limits for the radioactive metals

  11. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk-Based Approach for Microbiological Food Safety Management in the Dairy Industry: The Case of Listeria monocytogenes in Soft Cheese Made from Pasteurized Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenenhaus-Aziza, Fanny; Daudin, Jean-Jacques; Maffre, Alexandre; Sanaa, Moez

    2014-01-01

    According to Codex Alimentarius Commission recommendations, management options applied at the process production level should be based on good hygiene practices, HACCP system, and new risk management metrics such as the food safety objective. To follow this last recommendation, the use of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is an appealing approach to link new risk-based metrics to management options that may be applied by food operators. Through a specific case study, Listeria monocytogenes in soft cheese made from pasteurized milk, the objective of the present article is to practically show how quantitative risk assessment could be used to direct potential intervention strategies at different food processing steps. Based on many assumptions, the model developed estimates the risk of listeriosis at the moment of consumption taking into account the entire manufacturing process and potential sources of contamination. From pasteurization to consumption, the amplification of a primo-contamination event of the milk, the fresh cheese or the process environment is simulated, over time, space, and between products, accounting for the impact of management options, such as hygienic operations and sampling plans. A sensitivity analysis of the model will help orientating data to be collected prioritarily for the improvement and the validation of the model. What-if scenarios were simulated and allowed for the identification of major parameters contributing to the risk of listeriosis and the optimization of preventive and corrective measures. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  14. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  15. Political side of risk: a new approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorenson, J.B.; Trauth, C.A. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The resolution of many of the Nation's most-serious problems today is hampered by our apparent inability to systematically deal with the socio-political dimensions of the societal acceptance of risks in areas of technical development, decision making, and policy formulation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the energy field. The nature of public hazards has changed drastically during the past half century or so, driving public considerations of risk into the political realm. This has given many of the socio-political parameters underlying individual, group, and institutional perception and acceptance of risk an importance not typically recognized in technical approaches to risk assessment. As a result, there is now a large gap between technically based views of risk and societal views of risk which, the authors feel, is largely responsible for impeding the resolution of the national problems alluded to above. This paper proposes a general approach toward closing this gap, by using indicators from the political system to measure public perceptions and acceptance of risk, as a continuing function of time, to provide the technical community and policy and decision makers a basis from which to more effectively meet societal environmental, safety, and health goals. 15 references, 6 figures.

  16. Estimating Hantavirus Risk in Southern Argentina: A GIS-Based Approach Combining Human Cases and Host Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreo, Veronica; Neteler, Markus; Rocchini, Duccio; Provensal, Cecilia; Levis, Silvana; Porcasi, Ximena; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Lanfri, Mario; Scavuzzo, Marcelo; Pini, Noemi; Enria, Delia; Polop, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    We use a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to examine the potential distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) caused by Andes virus (ANDV) in southern Argentina and, more precisely, define and estimate the area with the highest infection probability for humans, through the combination with the distribution map for the competent rodent host (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus). Sites with confirmed cases of HPS in the period 1995–2009 were mostly concentrated in a narrow strip (~90 km × 900 km) along the Andes range from northern Neuquén to central Chubut province. This area is characterized by high mean annual precipitation (~1,000 mm on average), but dry summers (less than 100 mm), very low percentages of bare soil (~10% on average) and low temperatures in the coldest month (minimum average temperature −1.5 °C), as compared to the HPS-free areas, features that coincide with sub-Antarctic forests and shrublands (especially those dominated by the invasive plant Rosa rubiginosa), where rodent host abundances and ANDV prevalences are known to be the highest. Through the combination of predictive distribution maps of the reservoir host and disease cases, we found that the area with the highest probability for HPS to occur overlaps only 28% with the most suitable habitat for O. longicaudatus. With this approach, we made a step forward in the understanding of the risk factors that need to be considered in the forecasting and mapping of risk at the regional/national scale. We propose the implementation and use of thematic maps, such as the one built here, as a basic tool allowing public health authorities to focus surveillance efforts and normally scarce resources for prevention and control actions in vast areas like southern Argentina. PMID:24424500

  17. Estimating Hantavirus Risk in Southern Argentina: A GIS-Based Approach Combining Human Cases and Host Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica Andreo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We use a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM approach along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS techniques to examine the potential distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS caused by Andes virus (ANDV in southern Argentina and, more precisely, define and estimate the area with the highest infection probability for humans, through the combination with the distribution map for the competent rodent host (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus. Sites with confirmed cases of HPS in the period 1995–2009 were mostly concentrated in a narrow strip (~90 km × 900 km along the Andes range from northern Neuquén to central Chubut province. This area is characterized by high mean annual precipitation (~1,000 mm on average, but dry summers (less than 100 mm, very low percentages of bare soil (~10% on average and low temperatures in the coldest month (minimum average temperature −1.5 °C, as compared to the HPS-free areas, features that coincide with sub-Antarctic forests and shrublands (especially those dominated by the invasive plant Rosa rubiginosa, where rodent host abundances and ANDV prevalences are known to be the highest. Through the combination of predictive distribution maps of the reservoir host and disease cases, we found that the area with the highest probability for HPS to occur overlaps only 28% with the most suitable habitat for O. longicaudatus. With this approach, we made a step forward in the understanding of the risk factors that need to be considered in the forecasting and mapping of risk at the regional/national scale. We propose the implementation and use of thematic maps, such as the one built here, as a basic tool allowing public health authorities to focus surveillance efforts and normally scarce resources for prevention and control actions in vast areas like southern Argentina.

  18. Modeling approaches for characterizing and evaluating environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials in support of risk-based decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Lowry, Michael; Grieger, Khara D; Money, Eric S; Johnston, John M; Wiesner, Mark R; Beaulieu, Stephen M

    2013-02-05

    As the use of engineered nanomaterials becomes more prevalent, the likelihood of unintended exposure to these materials also increases. Given the current scarcity of experimental data regarding fate, transport, and bioavailability, determining potential environmental exposure to these materials requires an in depth analysis of modeling techniques that can be used in both the near- and long-term. Here, we provide a critical review of traditional and emerging exposure modeling approaches to highlight the challenges that scientists and decision-makers face when developing environmental exposure and risk assessments for nanomaterials. We find that accounting for nanospecific properties, overcoming data gaps, realizing model limitations, and handling uncertainty are key to developing informative and reliable environmental exposure and risk assessments for engineered nanomaterials. We find methods suited to recognizing and addressing significant uncertainty to be most appropriate for near-term environmental exposure modeling, given the current state of information and the current insufficiency of established deterministic models to address environmental exposure to engineered nanomaterials.

  19. The Risk Based Approach in the New European Anti-Money Laundering Legislation: a Law and Economics View

    OpenAIRE

    D. Masciandaro; L. Dalla Pellegrina

    2013-01-01

    In 2005 the European Commission adopted the Third Directive on Anti-Money Laundering (AML), which was to be implemented into national laws at the latest by December 2007. The key feature that characterizes the Third Directive is the idea that the regulatory framework should be risk-based (RBA). The aim of this regulation is to elicit a high level of outcome in terms of AML effectiveness from self-interested financial institutions (FIs) who hold private information. In this paper we study how ...

  20. A systematic review of internet-based worksite wellness approaches for cardiovascular disease risk management: outcomes, challenges & opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aneni, Ehimen C; Roberson, Lara L; Maziak, Wasim; Agatston, Arthur S; Feldman, Theodore; Rouseff, Maribeth; Tran, Thinh H; Blumenthal, Roger S; Blaha, Michael J; Blankstein, Ron; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram

    2014-01-01

    The internet is gaining popularity as a means of delivering employee-based cardiovascular (CV) wellness interventions though little is known about the cardiovascular health outcomes of these programs. In this review, we examined the effectiveness of internet-based employee cardiovascular wellness and prevention programs. We conducted a systematic review by searching PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane library for all published studies on internet-based programs aimed at improving CV health among employees up to November 2012. We grouped the outcomes according to the American Heart Association (AHA) indicators of cardiovascular wellbeing--weight, BP, lipids, smoking, physical activity, diet, and blood glucose. A total of 18 randomized trials and 11 follow-up studies met our inclusion/exclusion criteria. Follow-up duration ranged from 6-24 months. There were significant differences in intervention types and number of components in each intervention. Modest improvements were observed in more than half of the studies with weight related outcomes while no improvement was seen in virtually all the studies with physical activity outcome. In general, internet-based programs were more successful if the interventions also included some physical contact and environmental modification, and if they were targeted at specific disease entities such as hypertension. Only a few of the studies were conducted in persons at-risk for CVD, none in blue-collar workers or low-income earners. Internet based programs hold promise for improving the cardiovascular wellness among employees however much work is required to fully understand its utility and long term impact especially in special/at-risk populations.

  1. A systematic review of internet-based worksite wellness approaches for cardiovascular disease risk management: outcomes, challenges & opportunities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehimen C Aneni

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: The internet is gaining popularity as a means of delivering employee-based cardiovascular (CV wellness interventions though little is known about the cardiovascular health outcomes of these programs. In this review, we examined the effectiveness of internet-based employee cardiovascular wellness and prevention programs. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: We conducted a systematic review by searching PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane library for all published studies on internet-based programs aimed at improving CV health among employees up to November 2012. We grouped the outcomes according to the American Heart Association (AHA indicators of cardiovascular wellbeing--weight, BP, lipids, smoking, physical activity, diet, and blood glucose. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: A total of 18 randomized trials and 11 follow-up studies met our inclusion/exclusion criteria. Follow-up duration ranged from 6-24 months. There were significant differences in intervention types and number of components in each intervention. Modest improvements were observed in more than half of the studies with weight related outcomes while no improvement was seen in virtually all the studies with physical activity outcome. In general, internet-based programs were more successful if the interventions also included some physical contact and environmental modification, and if they were targeted at specific disease entities such as hypertension. Only a few of the studies were conducted in persons at-risk for CVD, none in blue-collar workers or low-income earners. CONCLUSION: Internet based programs hold promise for improving the cardiovascular wellness among employees however much work is required to fully understand its utility and long term impact especially in special/at-risk populations.

  2. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  3. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  4. Existing Regulatory Approaches to Reducing Exposures to Chemical- and Product-Based Risk and Their Applicability to Diet-Related Chronic Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Deborah A; Knopman, Debra S

    2018-04-17

    We aimed to identify and categorize the types of policies that have been adopted to protect Americans from harmful exposures that could also be relevant for addressing diet-related chronic diseases. This article examines and categorizes the rationales behind government regulation. Our interest in the historical analysis is to inform judgments about how best to address newly emergent risks involving diet-related chronic disease within existing regulatory and information-based frameworks. We assessed exemplars of regulation with respect to harmful exposures from air, water, and food, as well as regulations that are intended to modify voluntary behaviors. Following the comparative analysis, we explored how exposures that lead to diet-related chronic diseases among the general population fit within models of regulation adopted for other comparable risks. We identified five rationales and five approaches that protect people from harmful exposures. Reasons for regulation include: protection from involuntary exposure to risk, high risk of death or chronic illness, ubiquity of risk, counteraction to limit compulsive behaviors, and promotion of population health. Regulatory approaches include: mandatory limits on use, mandatory limits on exposure, mandatory controls on quality, mandatory labeling, and voluntary guidance. In contrast to the use of mandates, the prevention of diet-related chronic diseases thus far has largely relied on information-only approaches and voluntary adoption of guidelines. There is ample precedent for mandatory regulatory approaches that could address harms related to exposure to unhealthy diets, but several barriers to action would need to be overcome. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene

    of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

  6. An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

    2017-09-01

    Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.

  7. An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

    2014-04-01

    Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  9. Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RK Kamble

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

  10. A margin-of-exposure approach to assessment of noncancer risks of dioxins based on human exposure and response data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Lesa L; Goodman, Julie E; Charnley, Gail; Rhomberg, Lorenz R

    2008-10-01

    Risk assessment of human environmental exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/PCDFs) and other dioxin-like compounds is complicated by several factors, including limitations in measuring intakes because of the low concentrations of these compounds in foods and the environment and interspecies differences in pharmacokinetics and responses. We examined the feasibility of relying directly on human studies of exposure and potential responses to PCDD/PCDFs and related compounds in terms of measured lipid-adjusted concentrations to assess margin of exposure (MOE) in a quantitative, benchmark dose (BMD)-based framework using representative exposure and selected response data sets. We characterize estimated central tendency and upper-bound general U.S. population lipid-adjusted concentrations of PCDD/PCDFs from the 1970s and early 2000s based on available data sets. Estimates of benchmark concentrations for three example responses of interest (induction of cytochrome P4501A2 activity, dental anomalies, and neonatal thyroid hormone alterations) were derived based on selected human studies. The exposure data sets indicate that current serum lipid concentrations in young adults are approximately 6- to 7-fold lower than 1970s-era concentrations. Estimated MOEs for each end point based on current serum lipid concentrations range from 100 for dental anomalies-approximately 6-fold greater than would have existed during the 1970s. Human studies of dioxin exposure and outcomes can be used in a BMD framework for quantitative assessments of MOE. Incomplete exposure characterization can complicate the use of such studies in a BMD framework.

  11. Ecological study and risk mapping of leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Brazil based on a geographical information systems approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba Valéria Machado da Silva

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Visceral leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease highly influenced by eco-epidemiological factors. Geographical information systems (GIS have proved to be a suitable approach for the analysis of environmental components that affect the spatial distribution of diseases. Exploiting this methodology, a model was developed for the mapping of the distribution and incidence of canine leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Brazil. Local variations were observed with respect to infection incidence and distribution of serological titers, i.e. high titers were noted close to areas with preserved vegetation, while low titers were more frequent in areas where people kept chickens. Based on these results, we conclude that the environment plays an important role in generating relatively protected areas within larger endemic regions, but that it can also contribute to the creation of hotspots with clusters of comparatively high serological titers indicating a high level of transmission compared with neighbouring areas.

  12. A competing risks approach to "biologic" interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Skrondal, Anders

    2015-01-01

    framework using competing risks and argue that sufficient cause interaction between two factors can be evaluated via the parameters in a particular statistical model, the additive hazard rate model. We present empirical conditions for presence of sufficient cause interaction and an example based on data......In epidemiology, the concepts of "biologic" and "statistical" interactions have been the subject of extensive debate. We present a new approach to biologic interaction based on Rothman's original (Am J Epidemiol, 104:587-592, 1976) discussion of sufficient causes. We do this in a probabilistic...

  13. A GIS-based approach for the long-term prediction of human health risks at contaminated sites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bień, J.D.; Meer, J. ter; Rulkens, W.H.; Rijnaarts, H.H.M.

    2005-01-01

    A Health Index/Risk Evaluation Tool (HIRET) has been developed for the integration of risk assessment and spatial planning using GIS capabilities. The method is meant to assist decision makers and site owners in the evaluation of potential human health risk with respect to land use. Human health

  14. A GIS-based approach for the long-term prediction of human health risks at contaminated sites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bien, J.D.; Meer, J.; Rulkens, W.H.; Rijnaarts, H.H.M.

    2004-01-01

    A Health Index/Risk Evaluation Tool (HIRET) has been developed for the integration of risk assessment and spatial planning using GIS capabilities. The method is meant to assist decision makers and site owners in the evaluation of potential human health risk with respect to land use. Human health

  15. Risk communication: a mental models approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morgan, M. Granger (Millett Granger)

    2002-01-01

    ... information about risks. The procedure uses approaches from risk and decision analysis to identify the most relevant information; it also uses approaches from psychology and communication theory to ensure that its message is understood. This book is written in nontechnical terms, designed to make the approach feasible for anyone willing to try it. It is illustrat...

  16. A new approach in nuclear risk theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serbanescu, D.

    1994-01-01

    The basic problem of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the errors evaluation. The main contributor to the final PSA results is the systematical error induced by the method itself. There may be some alternatives to the PSA classical approaches. All the new more successful approaches in the PSA results validation are related to the modelling problem. A comparison between two possible approaches for a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) leakage event tree is included: The new approach proposed in (Serbanescu, 1991); the approach used in (Serbanescu, 1992), based on some unexplored yet features of the existing PSA analyses. The results are presented in relative units and an algorithm which was already implemented on an IBM.PC computer (Serbanescu, 1991) is used as a tool to decisions making tool. The decision making process should be based on a nuclear power plant (NPP) between modelling from the risk analysis point of view. This is the main feature of the proposed approach. (author). 4 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

  17. Mapping risk to water provision in Canada using a socio-hydrological approach based on ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouellet Dallaire, C.; Bennett, E.; Lehner, B.

    2017-12-01

    Canadian rivers are under threat from climate and other anthropogenic changes, which will have important repercussion on the provision of water. Ensuring the long-term provision of this ecosystem services (ES) necessitates integrative and sustainable management of river systems. Because of rivers' highly connected nature, freshwater management must consider the spatial configuration of river systems to account for the upstream/downstream connections of the beneficiaries. To answer this need, we developed a spatial and hydrological approach to measure capacity for, demand for and pressure from ES linked to river systems. We applied this method to all Canadian rivers for the provision of water and analyzed the intensity of interactions among four beneficiaries: agriculture, municipalities, industries and hydropower. As such this is a first-ever cartography of capacity for, demand for and pressure from water provision and their interactions at large scale. In Canada, rivers under high interactions are located in three main regions: the Prairies where demand for and pressure from water provision for agriculture is high, southern Ontario and Québec where demand for and pressure from water provision for municipalities and industries is high, and in Northern large rivers, especially in Québec, where pressures from water provision for hydropower production is high. The distribution of capacity, demand and pressure shows an intense but concentrated reliance on small rivers to provide water for downstream users. For Canadian large rivers, interactions among capacity, demand and pressure are moderate but constant. This cartography can inform freshwater management by identifying rivers where water provisioning is at risk, for example, where capacity cannot meet the demand or where water use has negative consequences on downstream ES.

  18. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-03-15

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  19. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarca, Riccardo; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  20. Transfer of analytical procedures: a panel of strategies selected for risk management, with emphasis on an integrated equivalence-based comparative testing approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agut, C; Caron, A; Giordano, C; Hoffman, D; Ségalini, A

    2011-09-10

    In 2001, a multidisciplinary team made of analytical scientists and statisticians at Sanofi-aventis has published a methodology which has governed, from that time, the transfers from R&D sites to Manufacturing sites of the release monographs. This article provides an overview of the recent adaptations brought to this original methodology taking advantage of our experience and the new regulatory framework, and, in particular, the risk management perspective introduced by ICH Q9. Although some alternate strategies have been introduced in our practices, the comparative testing one, based equivalence testing as statistical approach, remains the standard for assays lying on very critical quality attributes. This is conducted with the concern to control the most important consumer's risk involved at two levels in analytical decisions in the frame of transfer studies: risk, for the receiving laboratory, to take poor release decisions with the analytical method and risk, for the sending laboratory, to accredit such a receiving laboratory on account of its insufficient performances with the method. Among the enhancements to the comparative studies, the manuscript presents the process settled within our company for a better integration of the transfer study into the method life-cycle, just as proposals of generic acceptance criteria and designs for assay and related substances methods. While maintaining rigor and selectivity of the original approach, these improvements tend towards an increased efficiency in the transfer operations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  2. APPROACHING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION ON BASE OF LOWERING RISKS OF UKRAINIAN CONSUMERS AT WINE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Starostina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development of theoretical principles of conception of the perceived risk is considered. Methodology of marketing research of the perceived risks at the market of dry wine of Kyiv is shown. Searching questions, hypotheses, methods of statistical verification of hypotheses of marketing research are shown. Estimation of dry wine customers of separate components of the perceived risk and strategies of their decline are described. Concrete directions of the development of market strategy and marketing-mix, which take into account the estimation of the perceived risks and strategies of their diminishing, are offered.

  3. Risk estimation for carcinogens based on epidemiological data: A structured approach, illustrated by an example on chromium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goldbohm, R.A.; Tielemans, E.L.J.P.; Heederik, D.; Rubingh, C.M.; Dekkers, S.; Willems, M.I.; Dinant Kroese, E.

    2006-01-01

    It is generally recognized that human, epidemiological data, if available, are preferred as the starting point for quantitative risk analysis above the use of data from animal studies. Although methods to obtain proper risk estimates from epidemiological data are available, several impediments

  4. Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixture Toxicity and a Trait Based Approach to Soil Invertebrate Species for Site Specific Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainer, Amy; Cousins, Mark; Hogan, Natacha; Siciliano, Steven D

    2018-05-05

    Although petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs) released to the environment typically occur as mixtures, PHC remediation guidelines often reflect individual substance toxicity. It is well documented that groups of aliphatic PHCs act via the same mechanism of action, nonpolar narcosis and, theoretically, concentration addition mixture toxicity principles apply. To assess this theory, ten standardized acute and chronic soil invertebrate toxicity tests on a range of organisms (Eisenia fetida, Lumbricus terrestris, Enchytraeus crypticus, Folsomia candida, Oppia nitens and Hypoaspis aculeifer) were conducted with a refined PHC binary mixture. Reference models for concentration addition and independent action were applied to the mixture toxicity data with consideration of synergism, antagonism and dose level toxicity. Both concentration addition and independent action, without further interactions, provided the best fit with observed response to the mixture. Individual fraction effective concentration values were predicted from optimized, fitted reference models. Concentration addition provided a better estimate than independent action of individual fraction effective concentrations based on comparison with available literature and species trends observed in toxic responses to the mixture. Interspecies differences in standardized laboratory soil invertebrate species responses to PHC contaminated soil was reflected in unique traits. Diets that included soil, large body size, permeable cuticle, low lipid content, lack of ability to molt and no maternal transfer were traits linked to a sensitive survival response to PHC contaminated soil in laboratory tests. Traits linked to sensitive reproduction response in organisms tested were long life spans with small clutch sizes. By deriving single fraction toxicity endpoints considerate of mixtures, we reduce resources and time required in conducting site specific risk assessments for the protection of soil organism's exposure pathway. This

  5. Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

    2017-05-01

    Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

  6. Consideration of the bioavailability of metal/metalloid species in freshwaters: experiences regarding the implementation of biotic ligand model-based approaches in risk assessment frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rüdel, Heinz; Díaz Muñiz, Cristina; Garelick, Hemda; Kandile, Nadia G; Miller, Bradley W; Pantoja Munoz, Leonardo; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Purchase, Diane; Shevah, Yehuda; van Sprang, Patrick; Vijver, Martina; Vink, Jos P M

    2015-05-01

    After the scientific development of biotic ligand models (BLMs) in recent decades, these models are now considered suitable for implementation in regulatory risk assessment of metals in freshwater bodies. The BLM approach has been described in many peer-reviewed publications, and the original complex BLMs have been applied in prospective risk assessment reports for metals and metal compounds. BLMs are now also recommended as suitable concepts for the site-specific evaluation of monitoring data in the context of the European Water Framework Directive. However, the use is hampered by the data requirements for the original BLMs (about 10 water parameters). Recently, several user-friendly BLM-based bioavailability software tools for assessing the aquatic toxicity of relevant metals (mainly copper, nickel, and zinc) became available. These tools only need a basic set of commonly determined water parameters as input (i.e., pH, hardness, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved metal concentration). Such tools seem appropriate to foster the implementation of routine site-specific water quality assessments. This work aims to review the existing bioavailability-based regulatory approaches and the application of available BLM-based bioavailability tools for this purpose. Advantages and possible drawbacks of these tools (e.g., feasibility, boundaries of validity) are discussed, and recommendations for further implementation are given.

  7. Transaction based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunka, Frantisek; Matula, Jiri

    2017-07-01

    Transaction based approach is utilized in some methodologies in business process modeling. Essential parts of these transactions are human beings. The notion of agent or actor role is usually used for them. The paper on a particular example describes possibilities of Design Engineering Methodology for Organizations (DEMO) and Resource-Event-Agent (REA) methodology. Whereas the DEMO methodology can be regarded as a generic methodology having its foundation in the theory of Enterprise Ontology the REA methodology is regarded as the domain specific methodology and has its origin in accountancy systems. The results of these approaches is that the DEMO methodology captures everything that happens in the reality with a good empirical evidence whereas the REA methodology captures only changes connected with economic events. Economic events represent either change of the property rights to economic resource or consumption or production of economic resources. This results from the essence of economic events and their connection to economic resources.

  8. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

  9. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

  10. Using a tiered approach based on ecotoxicological techniques to assess the ecological risks of contamination in a subtropical estuarine protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, B G; Cruz, A C F; Buruaem, L M; Rodrigues, A P C; Machado, W T V; Abessa, D M S

    2016-02-15

    This study sought to assess the ecological risks of sediments from the northern portion of an estuarine protected area (Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe Protected Area--CIP-PA). The CIP-PA is located on the southern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil and is influenced by former mining activities along the Ribeira de Iguape River (RIR). We used a tiered approach based on multiple lines of evidence (geochemical analyses, toxicity tests, and whole sediment toxicity identification and evaluation) in order to assess environmental quality. The sediments presented a heterogeneous composition, but the samples collected close to the RIR exhibited higher concentrations of metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb) and toxicity. Multivariate analysis showed that toxicity was associated with metals, mud, organic matter, and CaCO3 quantities. The whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluation approach indicated that ammonia and metals were responsible for sediment toxicity. Overall, we concluded that the sediments collected at depositional areas from the northern portion of the CIP-PA presented high levels of metals, which originated from former mining areas located in the upper RIR basin, and that this contamination had toxic effects on aquatic invertebrates. The tiered approach was useful for identifying the degradation of sediment quality and also for indicating the causes of toxicity. Because the CIP-PA is an important estuarine protected area that is ecologically at risk, large-scale measures are required to control the sources of contamination.

  11. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  12. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  13. Evaluation of FOCUS surface water pesticide concentration predictions and risk assessment of field-measured pesticide mixtures-a crop-based approach under Mediterranean conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Ana Santos; Daam, Michiel A; Cerejeira, Maria José

    2017-07-01

    FOCUS models are used in the European regulatory risk assessment (RA) to predict individual pesticide concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters. The scenarios used in higher tier FOCUS simulations were mainly based on Central/North European, and work is needed to underpin the validity of simulated exposure profiles for Mediterranean agroecosystems. In addition, the RA of chemicals are traditionally evaluated on the basis of single substances although freshwater life is generally exposed to a multitude of pesticides. In the present study, we monitored 19 pesticides in surface waters of five locations in the Portuguese 'Lezíria do Tejo' agricultural area. FOCUS step 3 simulations were performed for the South European scenarios to estimate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). We verified that 44% of the PECs underestimated the measured environmental concentrations (MEC) of the pesticides, showing a non-compliance with the field data. Risk was assessed by comparing the environmental quality standards (EQS) and regulatory acceptable concentrations with their respective MECs. Risk of mixtures was demonstrated in 100% of the samples with insecticides accounting for 60% of the total risk identified. The overall link between the RA and the actual situation in the field must be considerably strengthened, and field studies on pesticide exposure and effects should be carried out to assist the improvement of predictive approaches used for regulatory purposes.

  14. A Risk Based Approach to Limit the Effects of Covert Channels for Internet Sensor Data Aggregators for Sensor Privacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viecco, Camilo H.; Camp, L. Jean

    Effective defense against Internet threats requires data on global real time network status. Internet sensor networks provide such real time network data. However, an organization that participates in a sensor network risks providing a covert channel to attackers if that organization’s sensor can be identified. While there is benefit for every party when any individual participates in such sensor deployments, there are perverse incentives against individual participation. As a result, Internet sensor networks currently provide limited data. Ensuring anonymity of individual sensors can decrease the risk of participating in a sensor network without limiting data provision.

  15. Risk adjustment of health-care performance measures in a multinational register-based study: A pragmatic approach to a complicated topic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tron Anders Moger

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health-care performance comparisons across countries are gaining popularity. In such comparisons, the risk adjustment methodology plays a key role for meaningful comparisons. However, comparisons may be complicated by the fact that not all participating countries are allowed to share their data across borders, meaning that only simple methods are easily used for the risk adjustment. In this study, we develop a pragmatic approach using patient-level register data from Finland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Methods: Data on acute myocardial infarction patients were gathered from health-care registers in several countries. In addition to unadjusted estimates, we studied the effects of adjusting for age, gender, and a number of comorbidities. The stability of estimates for 90-day mortality and length of stay of the first hospital episode following diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction is studied graphically, using different choices of reference data. Logistic regression models are used for mortality, and negative binomial models are used for length of stay. Results: Results from the sensitivity analysis show that the various models of risk adjustment give similar results for the countries, with some exceptions for Hungary and Italy. Based on the results, in Finland and Hungary, the 90-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction is higher than in Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Conclusion: Health-care registers give encouraging possibilities to performance measurement and enable the comparison of entire patient populations between countries. Risk adjustment methodology is affected by the availability of data, and thus, the building of risk adjustment methodology must be transparent, especially when doing multinational comparative research. In that case, even basic methods of risk adjustment may still be valuable.

  16. Dietary exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals in metropolitan population from China: a risk assessment based on probabilistic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Dongliang; Ye, Xiaolei; Xiao, Yonghua; Zhao, Nana; Long, Jia; Zhang, Piwei; Fan, Ying; Ding, Shibin; Jin, Xin; Tian, Chong; Xu, Shunqing; Ying, Chenjiang

    2015-11-01

    The intake of contaminated foods is an important exposure pathway for endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). However, data on the occurrence of EDCs in foodstuffs are sporadic and the resultant risk of co-exposure is rarely concerned. In this study, 450 food samples representing 7 food categories (mainly raw and fresh food), collected from three geographic cities in China, were analyzed for eight EDCs using high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS). Besides estrone (E1), other EDCs including diethylstilbestrol (DES), nonylphenol (NP), bisphenol A (BPA), octylphenol (OP), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), and estriol (E3) were ubiquitous in food. Dose-dependent relationships were found between NP and EE2 (r=0.196, pRisk Assessment (MCRA) system. The 50th and 95th percentile exposure of any EDCs isomer were far below the tolerable daily intake (TDI) value identically. However, the sum of 17β-estradiol equivalents (∑EEQs) exposure in population was considerably larger than the value of exposure to E2, which implied the underlying resultant risk of multiple EDCs in food should be concern. In conclusion, co-exposure via food consumption should be considered rather than individual EDCs during health risk evaluation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. An optimization-based approach for facility energy management with uncertainties, and, Power portfolio optimization in deregulated electricity markets with risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun

    Topic 1. An Optimization-Based Approach for Facility Energy Management with Uncertainties. Effective energy management for facilities is becoming increasingly important in view of the rising energy costs, the government mandate on the reduction of energy consumption, and the human comfort requirements. This part of dissertation presents a daily energy management formulation and the corresponding solution methodology for HVAC systems. The problem is to minimize the energy and demand costs through the control of HVAC units while satisfying human comfort, system dynamics, load limit constraints, and other requirements. The problem is difficult in view of the fact that the system is nonlinear, time-varying, building-dependent, and uncertain; and that the direct control of a large number of HVAC components is difficult. In this work, HVAC setpoints are the control variables developed on top of a Direct Digital Control (DDC) system. A method that combines Lagrangian relaxation, neural networks, stochastic dynamic programming, and heuristics is developed to predict the system dynamics and uncontrollable load, and to optimize the setpoints. Numerical testing and prototype implementation results show that our method can effectively reduce total costs, manage uncertainties, and shed the load, is computationally efficient. Furthermore, it is significantly better than existing methods. Topic 2. Power Portfolio Optimization in Deregulated Electricity Markets with Risk Management. In a deregulated electric power system, multiple markets of different time scales exist with various power supply instruments. A load serving entity (LSE) has multiple choices from these instruments to meet its load obligations. In view of the large amount of power involved, the complex market structure, risks in such volatile markets, stringent constraints to be satisfied, and the long time horizon, a power portfolio optimization problem is of critical importance but difficulty for an LSE to serve the

  18. A Margin-of-Exposure Approach to Assessment of Noncancer Risks of Dioxins Based on Human Exposure and Response Data

    OpenAIRE

    Aylward, Lesa L.; Goodman, Julie E.; Charnley, Gail; Rhomberg, Lorenz R.

    2008-01-01

    Background Risk assessment of human environmental exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/PCDFs) and other dioxin-like compounds is complicated by several factors, including limitations in measuring intakes because of the low concentrations of these compounds in foods and the environment and interspecies differences in pharmacokinetics and responses. Objectives We examined the feasibility of relying directly on human studies of exposure and potential responses to...

  19. An FMEA-Based Risk Assessment Approach for Wind Turbine Systems: A Comparative Study of Onshore and Offshore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmood Shafiee

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA has been extensively used by wind turbine assembly manufacturers for analyzing, evaluating and prioritizing potential/known failure modes. However, several limitations are associated with its practical implementation in wind farms. First, the Risk-Priority-Number (RPN of a wind turbine system is not informative enough for wind farm managers from the perspective of criticality; second, there are variety of wind turbines with different structures and hence, it is not correct to compare the RPN values of different wind turbines with each other for prioritization purposes; and lastly, some important economical aspects such as power production losses, and the costs of logistics and transportation are not taken into account in the RPN value. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we develop a mathematical tool for risk and failure mode analysis of wind turbine systems (both onshore and offshore by integrating the aspects of traditional FMEA and some economic considerations. Then, a quantitative comparative study is carried out using the traditional and the proposed FMEA methodologies on two same type of onshore and offshore wind turbine systems. The results show that the both systems face many of the same risks, however there are some main differences worth considering.

  20. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-12-31

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

  1. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-01-01

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made

  2. Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

  3. RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND PRACTICES IN IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRANDAS Claudiu

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Risk is identified in project management literature as an important factor influencing IT projects success, and it is relevant for both academic and practitionersn#8217; communities. The paper presents the past and current approaches to risk management in IT projects. The objective of this paper is to compare the different approaches and relate them to existing practices. Project management literature and practice have brought different approaches to risk management, and as a result, many projects ended in failure. We present how risk management is considered in the literature, and we compare the main two approaches: the evaluation approach and the management approach. The contingency approach does not consider risk management to be a specific process as it is an embedded process in the other project management processes. Then, we present the main practices in risk management. The methodology applied is based on documentary study review and analysis of the concepts used by the literature. We analyzed the literature published between 1978 and 2011 from the main journals for IT project management and found out that the essence of project management is risk management. The risk management practices have a considerable influence on stakeholdersn#8217; perception of project success. But, regardless of the chosen approach, a standard method for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks should be included in any project as this influences the outcome of the project.

  4. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  5. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  6. Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

    OpenAIRE

    Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

  7. Might gluten traces in wheat substitutes pose a risk in patients with celiac disease? A population-based probabilistic approach to risk estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gibert, A.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Neuhold, S.; Houben, G.F.; Canela, M.A.; Fasano, A.; Catassi, C.

    2013-01-01

    Background: In patients with treated celiac disease (CD), the ingestion of gluten traces contained in gluten-free (GF) wheat substitutes (eg, GF bread, flour, and pasta) could cause persisting intestinal mucosal damage. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the proportion of CD patients at risk

  8. Rat-bites of an epidemic proportion in Peshawar vale; a GIS based approach in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatima, Syeda Hira; Zaidi, Farrah; Adnan, Muhammad; Ali, Asad; Jamal, Qaiser; Khisroon, Muhammad

    2018-03-19

    Contemporary studies demonstrate that rodent bites do not occur frequently. However, a huge number of cases were reported from Peshawar vale, Pakistan during 2016. Two species, the local black rat Rattus rattus (Linnaeus, 1758) and the invasive brown rat Rattus norvegicus (Berkenhout, 1769) might be the suspected cause. Several studies indicated the invasion of brown rats into Pakistan presumably via port city of Karachi. In this study, we modeled geospatial distribution of rodent bites for risk assessment in the region. Bite cases reported to tertiary care lady reading hospital were monitored from January 1 to August 31, 2016. Among 1747 cases, statistically informative data (n = 1295) was used for analyses. MaxEnt algorithm was employed for geospatial modeling, taking into account various environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity, and elevation) and anthropogenic factors (human population density, distance from roads, distance from water channels, and land use/land cover). MaxEnt results revealed that urban slums (84.5%) are at highest risk followed by croplands (10.9%) and shrublands (2.7%). Anthropogenic factors affecting incidence of rodent bites included host density (contribution: 34.7), distance from water channels (3.2), land use/land cover (2.8), and distance from roads (2). Most of the cases occurred within a radius of 0.3 km from roads and 5 km from water channels. Rodent bite incidence is currently at its peak in Peshawar vale. Factors significantly affecting rodents' bite activity and their distribution and dispersal include urbanization, distance from roads, and water channels. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of invasion by brown rat on bite incidence.

  9. Risk approaches in setting radiation standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whipple, C.

    1984-01-01

    This paper discusses efforts to increase the similarity of risk regulation approaches for radiation and chemical carcinogens. The risk assessment process in both cases involves the same controversy over the extrapolation from high to low doses and dose rates, and in both cases the boundaries between science and policy in risk assessment are indistinct. Three basic considerations are presented to approach policy questions: the economic efficiency of the regulatory approach, the degree of residual risk, and the technical opportunities for risk control. It is the author's opinion that if an agency can show that its standard-setting policies are consistent with those which have achieved political and judicial acceptance in other contexts, the greater the predictability of the regulatory process and the stability of this process

  10. Risk as economic category: systematics scientific approach and refinement contents

    OpenAIRE

    V.G. Vygovskyy

    2015-01-01

    The paper studies the categorical-conceptual apparatus of risk and its refinement based on a critical analysis of existing systematic scientific approaches. Determined that in the refinement of the economic nature of the risk of a number of controversial issues: the definition of the objective or subjective nature of risk; matching of concepts such as «risk», «danger», «loss», «probability of loss»; definition of negative or positive consequences of risk; identification of risk with its conse...

  11. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  12. Risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

  13. Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Smolarek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

  14. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  15. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  16. Earthworms and in vitro physiologically-based extraction tests: complementary tools for a holistic approach towards understanding risk at arsenic-contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Button, Mark; Watts, Michael J; Cave, Mark R; Harrington, Chris F; Jenkin, Gawen T

    2009-04-01

    The relationship of the total arsenic content of a soil and its bioaccumulation by earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus and Dendrodrilus rubidus) to the arsenic fraction bioaccessible to humans, measured using an in vitro physiologically-based extraction test (PBET), was investigated. Soil and earthworm samples were collected at 24 sites at the former arsenic mine at the Devon Great Consols (DGC) in southwest England (UK), along with an uncontaminated site in Nottingham, UK, for comparison. Analysis of soil and earthworm total arsenic via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was performed following a mixed acid digestion. Arsenic concentrations in the soil were elevated (204-9,025 mg kg(-1)) at DGC. The arsenic bioaccumulation factor (BAF) for both earthworm species was found to correlate positively with the human bioaccessible fraction (HBF), although the correlation was only significant (P earthworms as complementary tools is explored as a holistic and multidisciplinary approach towards understanding risk at contaminated sites. Arsenic resistant earthworm species such as the L. rubellus populations at DGC are presented as a valuable tool for understanding risk at highly contaminated sites.

  17. Molecular and risk-based approach to nutrient development for a proposed sub-surface biogasification field trial in a biogenic gas field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambo, Adewale J.; Strapoc, Dariusz; Pittenger, Michelle; Huizinga, Bradley [ConocoPhillips (Canada); Wood, Ladonna; Ashby, Matt [Taxon Biosciences (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the molecular and risk-based approach to nutrient development for a proposed sub-surface biogasification field trial in a biogenic gas field. From field sampling, variability was seen in water chemistry and environmental parameters across the field; DNA yield also varied across the field and showed distinct spatial variation. The composition of microbial populations and relative distribution of archaea populations in the Cooks Inlet water is represented using pie and bar charts. The nutrient recipe was developed using known information on nutrient requirements of mathematically correlated microbial associations. The process of on-site nutrient injection is explained. Some of the mitigation plans for the risks involved during the process include, among others, limiting biofilm prevalence and avoiding bio-plugging and bio-corrosion. Biofilm is likely to develop in the injection line but less likely in nutrient mixing due to the high nutrient concentration. From the study, it can be concluded that community composition correlates with field geochemical parameters and methane pathways.

  18. Behavioral based safety approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maria Michael Raj, I.

    2009-01-01

    Approach towards the establishment of positive safety culture at Heavy Water Plant, Tuticorin includes the adoption of several important methodologies focused on human behavior and culminates with achievement of Total Safety Culture where Quality and Productivity are integrated with Safety

  19. On the ALARP approach to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melchers, R.E.

    2001-01-01

    There is an increasing trend by regulatory authorities for the introduction of the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) approach in dealing with risk management of proposed or existing complex hazardous systems. For these, decisions about acceptability or tolerability of risks and consequences can have very significant financial, economic and other consequences for the proponents. Conversely, there may be very significant social and socio-economic implications. ALARP as a guide to achieving a satisfactory outcome has a certain intuitive appeal for the practical management of industrial and other risks. However, as suggested herein, there are a number of areas of concern about the validity of this approach. These include representativeness, morality, philosophy, political reality and practicality. An important, and in some respects fundamental, difficulty is that the risk acceptance criteria are not fully open to public scrutiny and can appear to be settled by negotiation

  20. An approach to societal risk acceptance criteria and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.; Whipple, C.

    1977-06-01

    A quantitative approach to risk acceptance criteria and risk management is proposed for activities involving risk to individuals not receiving direct benefits, such as employment, from the activity. Societal activities are divided into major facilities or technologies, all or part of which are categorized as essential, beneficial, or peripheral, and a decreasing level of acceptable risk to the most exposed individual is proposed (say, 0.0002/year for essential, 0.00001/year for beneficial, and 0.000002/year for peripheral activity). The risk would be assessed at a high confidence level (say, 90%), thereby providing an incentive to the gaining of better knowledge. Each risk-producing facility, technology, etc., would have to undergo assessment both of risk to the individual and to society. The cost of the latter would have to be internalized, probably via a tax paid to the Federal Government, which in turn would redistribute the benefit as national health insurance or reduced taxes to the individual. Risk aversion to large events would be built into the internalization of the cost of risk

  1. A positive risk approach when clients choose to live at risk: a palliative case discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Bono, Christopher E; Henry, Blair

    2016-09-01

    The article discusses recent approaches in the literature about clients who chose to live at risk in their homes. It argues for a positive risk-based approach and a tool to help manage risk in the home, and applies these to a hypothetical end-of-life scenario. Historically, safety plans to consider risk management involved a culture of risk aversion supported by sometimes paternalistic motives intended to protect vulnerable clients. New findings in the literature engage in a process that respects the ethical principles underlying harm reduction philosophies. The literature also argues for a perspective that moves away from viewing risk as only harmful, to one that supports a positive understanding of risk as part of a client's informed choice. A risk support management plan, based on a positive approach, can provide a way to both support a client's choice to live at risk, anticipate for expected complications, and inform the creation of a contingency plan to address concerns as they may arise. The added value of a structured approach like the one proposed here for risk support management plans is that it provides adequate due diligence and informed decision-making when planning for risk-taking in complex situations.

  2. A Risk Management Approach for a Sustainable Cloud Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alifah Aida Lope Abdul Rahman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing is not just about resource sharing, cost savings and optimisation of business performance; it also involves fundamental concerns on how businesses need to respond on the risks and challenges upon migration. Managing risks is critical for a sustainable cloud adoption. It includes several dimensions such as cost, practising the concept of green IT, data quality, continuity of services to users and clients, guarantee tangible benefits. This paper presents a risk management approach for a sustainable cloud migration. We consider four dimensions of sustainability, i.e., economic, environmental, social and technology to determine the viability of cloud for the business context. The risks are systematically identified and analysed based on the existing in house controls and the cloud service provider offerings. We use Dempster Shafer (D-S theory to measure the adequacy of controls and apply semi-quantitative approach to perform risk analysis based on the theory of belief. The risk exposure for each sustainability dimension allows us to determine the viability of cloud migration. A practical migration use case is considered to determine the applicability of our work. The results identify the risk exposure and recommended control for the risk mitigation. We conclude that risks depend on specific migration case and both Cloud Service Provider (CSP and users are responsible for the risk mitigation. Inherent risks can evolve due to the cloud migration.

  3. Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischhoff, B.; Lichtenstein, S.; Slovic, P.; Keeney, R.; Derby, S.

    1980-12-01

    Acceptable-risk decisions are an essential step in the management of technological hazards. In many situations, they constitute the weak (or missing) link in the management process. The absence of an adequate decision-making methodology often produces indecision, inconsistency, and dissatisfaction. The result is neither good for hazard management nor good for society. This report offers a critical analysis of the viability of various approaches as guides to acceptable-risk decisions. This report seeks to define acceptable-risk decisions and to examine some frequently proposed, but inappropriate, solutions. 255 refs., 22 figs., 25 tabs.

  4. An Approach to On-line Risk Assessment in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; O'Brien, J.

    1996-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can provide safety status information for a plant during different configurations; additional effort is needed to do this in real time for on-line operation. This paper describes an approach to use PRA to achieve these goals. A Risk Assessment On-Line (RAOL) application was developed to monitor maintenance (on-line and planned) activities. RAOL is based on the results from a full-scope PRA, engineering/operational judgment and incorporates a user friendly program interface approach. Results from RAOL can be used by planners or operations to effectively manage the level of risk by controlling the actual plant configuration. (author)

  5. A novel approach to population-based risk stratification, comprising individualized lifestyle intervention in Danish general practice to prevent chronic diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun Larsen, Lars; Søndergaard, Jens; Halling, Anders

    2017-01-01

    Early detection of patients at risk seems to be effective for reducing the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic diseases. We aim to test the feasibility of a novel intervention for early detection of lifestyle-related chronic diseases based on a population-based stratification using a combinat......Early detection of patients at risk seems to be effective for reducing the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic diseases. We aim to test the feasibility of a novel intervention for early detection of lifestyle-related chronic diseases based on a population-based stratification using...

  6. Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

  7. A quality risk management model approach for cell therapy manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Fabio; Di Bartolo, Chiara; Piazza, Tommaso; Passannanti, Antonino; Gerlach, Jörg C; Gridelli, Bruno; Triolo, Fabio

    2010-12-01

    International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator-introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot-dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell-based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo-quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  9. Risk-based safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedlak, J.

    2001-12-01

    The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

  10. Reducing risks, protecting people. A harmonized approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, R.B.

    2000-01-01

    Risk training, education and communication usually refer to the responsibilities of those who generate risk (e.g. operators of nuclear power plants) towards those who are exposed to the risk (e.g. employees working in the plants and those living in the vicinity). In this context training, education and communication are intended to transfer information from risk professionals to a largely uninformed audience, with a view to improving standards or providing reassurance. However, with the growth of media such as the Internet those to whom such training, education and communication have traditionally been directed are now much better informed. In addition, increasing prosperity affects expectations and prompts questions, not only about the adequacy of the control measures intended to address specific hazards, but also about whether the hazardous activity is justified at all. Within the UK (and Europe) this is very evident for nuclear power, other applications of ionizing radiation, and in other areas such as genetically modified food. In consequence regulators of hazardous activities face considerable new challenges. Of course, regulators still have to formulate standards, communicate them to those responsible for risk reduction and see that the necessary controls are in place. But in addition regulators also have to be able to answer questions such as: - why is this hazardous activity (e.g. a nuclear power plant) allowed at all? - what level of risk is unacceptable? - is the approach to risk reduction sufficiently precautionary? - why shouldn't the risk be reduced further? - why are the risks from certain activities (e.g. those from ionizing radiation) controlled to much lower levels than those from other work activities? - how are decisions made, what criteria are applied and how are the stake holders involves? All this does not make life easy for regulators! The full paper will describe how the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has responded to these challenges by

  11. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  12. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  13. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  14. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, T. C. M.

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process...... followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching...... and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have...

  15. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  16. [New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustin, Jean-Christophe

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

  17. Sun Protection; A risk management approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffey, Brian

    2017-10-01

    Sun Protection differentiates itself from other texts by adopting a risk-management approach to determine whether, how, and in what circumstances, harm might be caused, and to explore the feasibility of various strategies in controlling exposure to solar UV radiation. This multi-disciplinary book covers topics from climatology through human exposure to sunlight, as well as biological and clinical effects of UV radiation to physical and chemical strategies for photoprotection.

  18. Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, T.H.

    1995-12-31

    By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

  19. Practitioner review: schizophrenia spectrum disorders and the at-risk mental state for psychosis in children and adolescents--evidence-based management approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiffin, Paul A; Welsh, Patrick

    2013-11-01

    Schizophrenia spectrum disorders are severe mental illnesses which often result in significant distress and disability. Attempts have been made to prospectively identify and treat young people viewed as at high risk of impending nonaffective psychosis. Once a schizophrenia spectrum disorder has developed, prompt identification and management is required. This article reviews the literature relating to the assessment and management of 'at-risk mental states' (ARMS) and the treatment of schizophrenia spectrum disorders in children and adolescents. A systematic search of the literature was undertaken using EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO databases for the period January 1970-December 2012. Evidence suggests that young people fulfilling the ARMS criteria are at high risk of adverse mental health outcomes but that the majority do not develop nonaffective psychosis over the medium term. Although clinical trial findings have been inconsistent, psychosocial approaches, such as cognitive behaviour therapy, may reduce the risk of transition to psychosis and improve some symptoms, at least over the short term. The effectiveness of psychotropic medication for the ARMS is uncertain although there is accumulating evidence for potential adverse effects of antipsychotic medication, even at low dose, in this population. For the schizophrenias, clinical trial findings suggest that, as in adults, antipsychotics should be selected on the basis of side-effect profile although clozapine may be helpful in treatment refractory illness. There are almost no studies of psychosocial treatments for schizophrenia in young people under 18, and some caution must be exercised when extrapolating the findings of adult studies to younger individuals. A stepped care approach to the ARMS in young people represents a plausible potential management approach for those at high risk of serious mental health problems. However, predictive models currently lack precision and should focus on accurately identifying

  20. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  1. Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

    2014-10-01

    Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  2. A structured approach to control of Salmonella Dublin in 10 Danish dairy herds based on risk scoring and test-and-manage procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2012-01-01

    routes of infection; 4) interpretation of repeated testing of individual animals to detect high-risk animals for special hygienic management or culling; and 5) diagnostic testing of different age groups and bulk tank milk to evaluate progress of control over time. Serology, true prevalence estimates...... stock and adult cattle in 10 case herds that were followed for more than three years. The five steps in the structured approach were: 1) risk scoring to determine transmission routes within the herd and into the herd; 2) determining a plan of action; 3) performing management changes to close important...... and changes in herd classification in the Danish surveillance programme for Salmonella Dublin were used to assess the progress in the herds during and after the control period. Effective control of Salmonella Dublin was achieved in all participating herds through management that focused on closing infection...

  3. Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-05

    It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  4. Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

  5. Modeling a Theory-Based Approach to Examine the Influence of Neurocognitive Impairment on HIV Risk Reduction Behaviors Among Drug Users in Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huedo-Medina, Tania B; Shrestha, Roman; Copenhaver, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Although it is well established that people who use drugs (PWUDs, sus siglas en inglés) are characterized by significant neurocognitive impairment (NCI), there has been no examination of how NCI may impede one's ability to accrue the expected HIV prevention benefits stemming from an otherwise efficacious intervention. This paper incorporated a theoretical Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills model of health behavior change (IMB) to examine the potential influence of NCI on HIV prevention outcomes as significantly moderating the mediation defined in the original model. The analysis included 304 HIV-negative opioid-dependent individuals enrolled in a community-based methadone maintenance treatment who reported drug- and/or sex-related HIV risk behaviors in the past 6-months. Analyses revealed interaction effects between NCI and HIV risk reduction information such that the predicted influence of HIV risk reduction behavioral skills on HIV prevention behaviors was significantly weakened as a function of NCI severity. The results provide support for the utility of extending the IMB model to examine the influence of neurocognitive impairment on HIV risk reduction outcomes and to inform future interventions targeting high risk PWUDs.

  6. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  8. Corporate risk tolerance and capital allocation: A practical approach to implementing an exploration risk policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    Petroleum exploration companies are confronted regularly with the issue of allocating scarce capital among a set of available exploration projects, which are generally characterized by a high degree of financial risk and uncertainty. Commonly used methods for evaluating alternative investments consider the amount and timing of the monetary flows associated with a project and ignore the firm's ability or willingness to assume the business risk of the project. The preference-theory approach combines the traditional means of project valuation, net present value (NPV) analysis, with a decision-science-based approach to risk management. This integrated model provides a means for exploration firms to measure and to manage the financial risks associated with petroleum exploration, consistent with the firm's desired risk policy

  9. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-01

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: ► A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. ► An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. ► The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  10. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

    1993-01-01

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  11. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  12. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  13. Efficacy of a web-based intelligent tutoring system for communicating genetic risk of breast cancer: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Christopher R; Reyna, Valerie F; Widmer, Colin L; Cedillos, Elizabeth M; Fisher, Christopher R; Brust-Renck, Priscila G; Weil, Audrey M

    2015-01-01

    . Many healthy women consider genetic testing for breast cancer risk, yet BRCA testing issues are complex. . To determine whether an intelligent tutor, BRCA Gist, grounded in fuzzy-trace theory (FTT), increases gist comprehension and knowledge about genetic testing for breast cancer risk, improving decision making. . In 2 experiments, 410 healthy undergraduate women were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: an online module using a Web-based tutoring system (BRCA Gist) that uses artificial intelligence technology, a second group read highly similar content from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Web site, and a third that completed an unrelated tutorial. . BRCA Gist applied FTT and was designed to help participants develop gist comprehension of topics relevant to decisions about BRCA genetic testing, including how breast cancer spreads, inherited genetic mutations, and base rates. . We measured content knowledge, gist comprehension of decision-relevant information, interest in testing, and genetic risk and testing judgments. . Control knowledge scores ranged from 54% to 56%, NCI improved significantly to 65% and 70%, and BRCA Gist improved significantly more to 75% and 77%, P tutors, such as BRCA Gist, are scalable, cost-effective ways of helping people understand complex issues, improving decision making. © The Author(s) 2014.

  14. Risk as economic category: systematics scientific approach and refinement contents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.G. Vygovskyy

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies the categorical-conceptual apparatus of risk and its refinement based on a critical analysis of existing systematic scientific approaches. Determined that in the refinement of the economic nature of the risk of a number of controversial issues: the definition of the objective or subjective nature of risk; matching of concepts such as «risk», «danger», «loss», «probability of loss»; definition of negative or positive consequences of risk; identification of risk with its consequences, or source of origin, which makes the relevance of research topics. As a result of scientific research has been refined interpretation of risk as an economic category, the characteristics of the company associated with the probability of unforeseen situations that may lead to negative and positive impacts, assessment of which requires the development of alternatives for management decisions. Clarification of the definition focuses on the possibility (probability of a favorable (unfavorable events which require certain corrective action management unit of the enterprise. The author emphasizes the mandatory features of the category of «risk», in particular: the concept of risk is always associated with the uncertainty of the future; event occurring has implications for the enterprise (both negative and positive; consequences for necessitates the development of a number of alternative solutions to the possible elimination of the negative consequences of risky events; risk – a mandatory attribute of modern management (its value is enhanced in terms of market conditions; subject to risk assessment and management by the company. Dedicated and updated features contribute to the clarification of the nature of the economic risk and categorical conceptual apparatus of risk management.

  15. Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

    2009-04-01

    Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

  16. A review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of game theory approach to cyber security risk management. ... This paper presents a review of game theoretic-based model for cyber security risk management. Specifically, issues on ... AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE ...

  17. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, Theo C.M.; Wensem, Joke van; Montforts, Mark; Hart, Andy; Aagaard, Alf; Alix, Anne; Boesten, Jos; Bopp, Stephanie K.; Brown, Colin; Capri, Ettore; Forbes, Valery; Köpp, Herbert; Liess, Matthias; Luttik, Robert; Maltby, Lorraine

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching concept for the development of SPGs, which will likely facilitate communication with stakeholders in general and risk managers in particular. It is proposed to develop SPG options for 7 key drivers for ecosystem services (microbes, algae, non target plants (aquatic and terrestrial), aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial non target arthropods including honeybees, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates, and vertebrates), covering the ecosystem services that could potentially be affected by the use of pesticides. These SPGs need to be defined in 6 dimensions: biological entity, attribute, magnitude, temporal and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have a protection status in legislation, protection may be at the individual level. To protect the provisioning and supporting services provided by microbes it may be sufficient to protect them at the functional group level. To protect biodiversity impacts need to be assessed at least at the scale of the watershed/landscape. - Research highlights: ► How to define specific protection goals (SPGs) for environmental risk assessment? ► The process uses the ecosystem services (ES

  18. The Safety Case and the Risk-Informed Performance-Based Approach for Management of US Commercial Low Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abu-Eid, Rateb; Esh, David; Grossman, Chrisopher

    2016-01-01

    Summary/Conclusion Safety Case & 10 CFR Part 61: • Safety Case is an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management. • NRC staff explicitly added “the safety case” concept in the ongoing amendment of 10 CFR Part 61, at the direction of Commission. • Plain language description the safety arguments and evidence to demonstrate the overall safety of a land disposal facility were developed. • It describes all safety relevant aspects of the disposal site, the design of the facility, and the managerial control measures and regulatory controls to inform the decision whether to grant a license. • It includes the same type of information that the original 10 CFR Part 61 required to be submitted as part of a license application (i.e., 10 CFR 61.10 – 10 CFR 61.16). • The safety case will be updated over time as a new information is gained during the various phases of the facility’s development, inspection, and operation. • 10 CFR Part 61 SC is quite consistent with IAEA SSG-23 with more detailed technical analysis.

  19. A team-based multidisciplinary approach to managing peripherally inserted central catheter complications in high-risk haematological patients: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curto-García, Natalia; García-Suárez, Julio; Callejas Chavarria, Marta; Gil Fernández, Juan José; Martín Guerrero, Yolanda; Magro Mazo, Elena; Marcellini Antonio, Shelly; Juárez, Luis Miguel; Gutierrez, Isabel; Arranz, Juan José; Montalvo, Irene; Elvira, Carmen; Domínguez, Pilar; Díaz, María Teresa; Burgaleta, Carmen

    2016-01-01

    Use of peripherally inserted central catheters (PICCs) has markedly increased during the last decade. However, there are few studies on use of PICCs in patients with haematological malignancies (HM) receiving intensive chemotherapy. Preliminary data suggest a higher rate of PICC-related complications in these high-risk patients. This prospective observational single-centre study aimed to investigate PICC-related complications after implementation of a multidisciplinary approach to PICC care and compared it with previous literature. A total of 44 PICCs were inserted in 36 patients (27.3%, thrombocytopenia <50 × 10(9)/L at insertion) over 5045 PICC days (median duration, 114.5 days). No major insertion-related complications were observed. Major late complications were obstruction in 13.6% (1.19/1000 PICC days) of patients, catheter-related bloodstream infection in 6.8% (0.59/1000 PICC days), and catheter-related thrombosis in 4.5% (0.39/1000 PICC days). Premature PICC removal occurred in 34% (2.97/1000 PICC days) of patients. The overall rate of potentially major dangerous complications was particularly low (11.36%, 0.99/1000 PICC days) compared with previous studies. This study highlights the utility of a multidisciplinary approach for PICC care in adults with HM receiving intensive chemotherapy. We provide further data to support use of PICCs in such patient populations.

  20. Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

  1. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

    2014-12-01

    Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

  3. The management object in risk management approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    2013-01-01

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible. The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse an...

  4. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sunand; Sharma, Rajiv Kumar; Chauhan, Prashant

    2014-01-01

    [EN] In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain ...

  5. RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

    2012-01-01

    Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...

  6. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  7. Low incidence of chest wall pain with a risk-adapted lung stereotactic body radiation therapy approach using three or five fractions based on chest wall dosimetry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibaud P Coroller

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To examine the frequency and potential of dose-volume predictors for chest wall (CW toxicity (pain and/or rib fracture for patients receiving lung stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT using treatment planning methods to minimize CW dose and a risk-adapted fractionation scheme. METHODS: We reviewed data from 72 treatment plans, from 69 lung SBRT patients with at least one year of follow-up or CW toxicity, who were treated at our center between 2010 and 2013. Treatment plans were optimized to reduce CW dose and patients received a risk-adapted fractionation of 18 Gy×3 fractions (54 Gy total if the CW V30 was less than 30 mL or 10-12 Gy×5 fractions (50-60 Gy total otherwise. The association between CW toxicity and patient characteristics, treatment parameters and dose metrics, including biologically equivalent dose, were analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 20 months, 6 (8.3% patients developed CW pain including three (4.2% grade 1, two (2.8% grade 2 and one (1.4% grade 3. Five (6.9% patients developed rib fractures, one of which was symptomatic. No significant associations between CW toxicity and patient and dosimetric variables were identified on univariate nor multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Optimization of treatment plans to reduce CW dose and a risk-adapted fractionation strategy of three or five fractions based on the CW V30 resulted in a low incidence of CW toxicity. Under these conditions, none of the patient characteristics or dose metrics we examined appeared to be predictive of CW pain.

  8. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  9. Early Engagement of Safety and Mission Assurance Expertise Using Systems Engineering Tools: A Risk-Based Approach to Early Identification of Safety and Assurance Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darpel, Scott; Beckman, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Decades of systems engineering practice have demonstrated that the earlier the identification of requirements occurs, the lower the chance that costly redesigns will needed later in the project life cycle. A better understanding of all requirements can also improve the likelihood of a design's success. Significant effort has been put into developing tools and practices that facilitate requirements determination, including those that are part of the model-based systems engineering (MBSE) paradigm. These efforts have yielded improvements in requirements definition, but have thus far focused on a design's performance needs. The identification of safety & mission assurance (S&MA) related requirements, in comparison, can occur after preliminary designs are already established, yielding forced redesigns. Engaging S&MA expertise at an earlier stage, facilitated by the use of MBSE tools, and focused on actual project risk, can yield the same type of design life cycle improvements that have been realized in technical and performance requirements.

  10. Form-based Approaches vs. Task-Based Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Talebi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at investigating whether task-based approaches bear any superiority to that of more traditional ones evident in presentation-practice- and production phase .to fulfill the purpose of the study, the participants within the age range of 11-19, took part in the study. Following a pretest, treatment, and a posttest, the obtained data was analyzed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA to examine the effects of the variables. The results of the analysis showed that participants in the PPP group did significantly better in the grammar recognition of the posttest than that of the task group. However, their counterparts in the task group gained better scores in the writing section of the test .this research study provided evidence in support of task proponents' claim in the merit of task-based activity in raising learners' implicit knowledge claiming to play the primary role in spontaneous speech.

  11. A risk-based approach for identifying constituents of concern in oil sands process-affected water from the Athabasca Oil Sands region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQueen, Andrew D; Kinley, Ciera M; Hendrikse, Maas; Gaspari, Daniel P; Calomeni, Alyssa J; Iwinski, Kyla J; Castle, James W; Haakensen, Monique C; Peru, Kerry M; Headley, John V; Rodgers, John H

    2017-04-01

    Mining leases in the Athabasca Oil Sands (AOS) region produce large volumes of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) containing constituents that limit beneficial uses and discharge into receiving systems. The aim of this research is to identify constituents of concern (COCs) in OSPW sourced from an active settling basin with the goal of providing a sound rational for developing mitigation strategies for using constructed treatment wetlands for COCs contained in OSPW. COCs were identified through several lines of evidence: 1) chemical and physical characterization of OSPW and comparisons with numeric water quality guidelines and toxicity endpoints, 2) measuring toxicity of OSPW using a taxonomic range of sentinel organisms (i.e. fish, aquatic invertebrates, and a macrophyte), 3) conducting process-based manipulations (PBMs) of OSPW to alter toxicity and inform treatment processes, and 4) discerning potential treatment pathways to mitigate ecological risks of OSPW based on identification of COCs, toxicological analyses, and PBM results. COCs identified in OSPW included organics (naphthenic acids [NAs], oil and grease [O/G]), metals/metalloids, and suspended solids. In terms of species sensitivities to undiluted OSPW, fish ≥ aquatic invertebrates > macrophytes. Bench-scale manipulations of the organic fractions of OSPW via PBMs (i.e. H 2 O 2 +UV 254 and granular activated charcoal treatments) eliminated toxicity to Ceriodaphnia dubia (7-8 d), in terms of mortality and reproduction. Results from this study provide critical information to inform mitigation strategies using passive or semi-passive treatment processes (e.g., constructed treatment wetlands) to mitigate ecological risks of OSPW to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveson, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    The goal of leading indicators for safety is to identify the potential for an accident before it occurs. Past efforts have focused on identifying general leading indicators, such as maintenance backlog, that apply widely in an industry or even across industries. Other recommendations produce more system-specific leading indicators, but start from system hazard analysis and thus are limited by the causes considered by the traditional hazard analysis techniques. Most rely on quantitative metrics, often based on probabilistic risk assessments. This paper describes a new and different approach to identifying system-specific leading indicators and provides guidance in designing a risk management structure to generate, monitor and use the results. The approach is based on the STAMP (System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) model of accident causation and tools that have been designed to build on that model. STAMP extends current accident causality to include more complex causes than simply component failures and chains of failure events or deviations from operational expectations. It incorporates basic principles of systems thinking and is based on systems theory rather than traditional reliability theory. - Highlights: • Much effort has gone into developing leading indicators with only limited success. • A systems-theoretic, assumption-based approach may be more successful. • Leading indicators are warning signals of an assumption’s changing vulnerability. • Heuristic biases can be controlled by using plausibility rather than likelihood

  13. Toxicity assessment strategies, data requirements, and risk assessment approaches to derive health based guidance values for non-relevant metabolites of plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Melching-Kollmuss, Stephanie; Kalberlah, Fritz

    2010-03-01

    In Europe, limits for tolerable concentrations of "non-relevant metabolites" for active ingredients (AI) of plant protection products in drinking water between 0.1 and 10 microg/L are discussed depending on the toxicological information available. "Non-relevant metabolites" are degradation products of AIs, which do not or only partially retain the targeted toxicities of AIs. For "non-relevant metabolites" without genotoxicity (to be confirmed by testing in vitro), the application of the concept of "thresholds of toxicological concern" results in a health-based drinking water limit of 4.5 microg/L even for Cramer class III compounds, using the TTC threshold of 90 microg/person/day (divided by 10 and 2). Taking into account the thresholds derived from two reproduction toxicity data bases a drinking water limit of 3.0 microg/L is proposed. Therefore, for "non-relevant metabolites" whose drinking water concentration is below 3.0 microg/L, no toxicity testing is necessary. This work develops a toxicity assessment strategy as a basis to delineate health-based limits for "non-relevant metabolites" in ground and drinking water. Toxicological testing is recommended to investigate, whether the metabolites are relevant or not, based on the hazard properties of the parent AIs, as outlined in the SANCO Guidance document. Also, genotoxicity testing of the water metabolites is clearly recommended. In this publication, tiered testing strategies are proposed for non-relevant metabolites, when drinking water concentrations >3.0 microg/L will occur. Conclusions based on structure-activity relationships and the detailed toxicity database on the parent AI should be included. When testing in animals is required for risk assessment, key aspects are studies along OECD-testing guidelines with "enhanced" study designs addressing additional endpoints such as reproductive toxicity and a developmental screening test to derive health-based tolerable drinking water limits with a limited number

  14. The Management Object in Risk Management Approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Ulrik

    Using a systematic review of the last 55 years of research within risk management this paper explores how risk management as a management technology (methodologies, tools and frameworks to mitigate or manage risks) singles out risks as an object for management in order to make action possible....... The paper synthesise by developing a framework of how different views on risk management enable and constrain the knowledge about risk and thus frame the possibilities to measure, analyse and calculate uncertainty and risk. Inspired by social studies of finance and accounting, the paper finally develops...... three propositions that illustrate how the framing of risk establishes a boundary for how managers might understand value creation and the possible future and how this impacts the possible responses to risk....

  15. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

  16. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Haas

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  17. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2005-08-01

    When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  18. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunand Kumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.

  19. Development of erosion risk map using fuzzy logic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fauzi Manyuk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Erosion-hazard assessment is an important aspect in the management of a river basin such as Siak River Basin, Riau Province, Indonesia. This study presents an application of fuzzy logic approach to develop erosion risk map based on geographic information system. Fuzzy logic is a computing approach based on “degrees of truth” rather than the usual “true or false” (1 or 0 Boolean logic on which the modern computer is based. The results of the erosion risk map were verified by using field measurements. The verification result shows that the parameter of soil-erodibility (K indicates a good agreement with field measurement data. The classification of soil-erodibility (K as the result of validation were: very low (0.0–0.1, medium (0.21-0.32, high (0.44-0.55 and very high (0.56-0.64. The results obtained from this study show that the erosion risk map of Siak River Basin were dominantly classified as medium level which cover about 68.54%. The other classifications were high and very low erosion level which cover about 28.84% and 2.61% respectively.

  20. A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

    2015-01-01

    A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

  1. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  3. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  4. Risk-based performance indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

  5. Comparisons on International Approaches of Business and Project Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Nadia Carmen ENE

    2005-01-01

    In this article we intend to present a comparative approach between three recognized international methodologies for risk management: RISKMAN, Project Management Institute Methodology-PMBoK and Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide (produced by Association for Project Management).

  6. Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2007-01-01

    The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

  7. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  8. Risk informed approach and its application in Daya Bay NPP operation safety management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Yu; Zhang Jinlong; Bao Yukun

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a systematic risk assessment approach based on probabilistic theory, and discusses its significance and application process in safety management. Risk informed approach that uses deterministic engineering principles and probabilistic methods is the appropriate approach to decision making at nuclear power plants. The paper also studies an actual case taken place at Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station using PSA approach to equipment maintenance. (authors)

  9. LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF QUARANTINE AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO QUARANTINE ISOLATION AND TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Chelsea; Marinkovich, Matt; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

    2016-03-01

    Quarantine is designed primarily to prevent the introduction of transmissible diseases to zoological collections. Improvements in preventive medicine, disease eradication, and comprehensive pathology programs call into question current industry quarantine standards. Disease risk analysis was used at the San Diego Zoo (SDZ) and the SDZ Safari Park to eliminate quarantine isolation and transmissible disease testing for animals transferred between the two institutions. To determine if a risk-based approach might be valid between other institutions and SDZ, we reviewed quarantine data for animals arriving at SDZ from 81 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 124 other sources (e.g., non-AZA-accredited institutions, private breeders, private dealers, governmental bodies) over a 5-yr period (2009-2013). No mammal or herptile failed quarantine due to transmissible diseases of concern. Approximately 2.5% of incoming birds failed quarantine due to transmissible disease; however, all 14 failed individuals were obtained from three nonaccredited sources (private breeders, confiscation). The results of our study suggest that a risk-based approach could be used to minimize or eliminate quarantine for the transfer of animals from institutions with comprehensive disease surveillance programs and/or preshipment testing practices. Quarantine isolation with testing remains an essential defense against introducing transmissible diseases of concern when there is a lack of health knowledge about the animals being received.

  10. Quality expectations and tolerance limits of trial master files (TMF) - Developing a risk-based approach for quality assessments of TMFs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Arthur; Busch-Heidger, Barbara; Gertzen, Heiner; Pfister, Heike; Ruhfus, Birgit; Sanden, Per-Holger; Schmidt, Gabriele B

    2015-01-01

    This article addresses the question of when a trial master file (TMF) can be considered sufficiently accurate and complete: What attributes does the TMF need to have so that a clinical trial can be adequately reconstructed from documented data and procedures? Clinical trial sponsors face significant challenges in assembling the TMF, especially when dealing with large, international, multicenter studies; despite all newly introduced archiving techniques it is becoming more and more difficult to ensure that the TMF is complete. This is directly reflected in the number of inspection findings reported and published by the EMA in 2014. Based on quality risk management principles in clinical trials the authors defined the quality expectations for the different document types in a TMF and furthermore defined tolerance limits for missing documents. This publication provides guidance on what type of documents and processes are most important, and in consequence, indicates on which documents and processes trial team staff should focus in order to achieve a high-quality TMF. The members of this working group belong to the CQAG Group (Clinical Quality Assurance Germany) and are QA (quality assurance) experts (auditors or compliance functions) with long-term experience in the practical handling of TMFs.

  11. Quality expectations and tolerance limits of trial master files (TMF) – Developing a risk-based approach for quality assessments of TMFs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Arthur; Busch-Heidger, Barbara; Gertzen, Heiner; Pfister, Heike; Ruhfus, Birgit; Sanden, Per-Holger; Schmidt, Gabriele B.

    2015-01-01

    This article addresses the question of when a trial master file (TMF) can be considered sufficiently accurate and complete: What attributes does the TMF need to have so that a clinical trial can be adequately reconstructed from documented data and procedures? Clinical trial sponsors face significant challenges in assembling the TMF, especially when dealing with large, international, multicenter studies; despite all newly introduced archiving techniques it is becoming more and more difficult to ensure that the TMF is complete. This is directly reflected in the number of inspection findings reported and published by the EMA in 2014. Based on quality risk management principles in clinical trials the authors defined the quality expectations for the different document types in a TMF and furthermore defined tolerance limits for missing documents. This publication provides guidance on what type of documents and processes are most important, and in consequence, indicates on which documents and processes trial team staff should focus in order to achieve a high-quality TMF. The members of this working group belong to the CQAG Group (Clinical Quality Assurance Germany) and are QA (quality assurance) experts (auditors or compliance functions) with long-term experience in the practical handling of TMFs. PMID:26693218

  12. Quality expectations and tolerance limits of trial master files (TMF – Developing a risk-based approach for quality assessments of TMFs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hecht, Arthur

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses the question of when a trial master file (TMF can be considered sufficiently accurate and complete: What attributes does the TMF need to have so that a clinical trial can be adequately reconstructed from documented data and procedures? Clinical trial sponsors face significant challenges in assembling the TMF, especially when dealing with large, international, multicenter studies; despite all newly introduced archiving techniques it is becoming more and more difficult to ensure that the TMF is complete. This is directly reflected in the number of inspection findings reported and published by the EMA in 2014. Based on quality risk management principles in clinical trials the authors defined the quality expectations for the different document types in a TMF and furthermore defined tolerance limits for missing documents. This publication provides guidance on what type of documents and processes are most important, and in consequence, indicates on which documents and processes trial team staff should focus in order to achieve a high-quality TMF.The members of this working group belong to the CQAG Group (Clinical Quality Assurance Germany and are QA (quality assurance experts (auditors or compliance functions with long-term experience in the practical handling of TMFs.

  13. Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Home-Based Nigerian Engineers on Risk Management Approach ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Correlation methods were adopted for statistical ...

  14. A risk approach to the management of boiler tube thinning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noori, Soudabeh A.; Price, John W.H.

    2006-01-01

    A large set of industrial thickness inspection data covering four boiler units of a power station over a period of five years was made available to the authors. The measurements were made in regions of the boiler where corrosion/erosion was the major cause of failure of the boiler tubes. There were over 40,000 separately measured data points in the data and all were collected with some care and expense. In the development of maintenance strategies for equipment, this type of data is typical of the data that must be collected and assessed. This data thus represents an opportunity to evaluate the ability to generate a useful risk approach to the management of the tubing. An important example of a risk-based approach is the American Petroleum Institute (API) Risk Based Inspection ('RBI'), API 581. A variety of problems were encountered applying this to boiler tubes. The problems include irrelevant API 581 corrosion rate tables, lack of information on how to analyse inspection data, difficulty of dealing with multiple inspection categories and lack of suitable direction for programming inspection intervals

  15. Some approaches to understanding public perceptions of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greer-Wootten, B.

    1981-01-01

    The debate on nuclear power contains a central set of arguments that can be related, by and large, to differences in the meaning of risk assessment for various concerned publics. At an earlier point in time the arguments largely concerned power production (reactor safety), but now most components of the nuclear fuel cycle are subject to risk perceptions. The strongest levels of public concern over time have focussed on waste management, and in this area illustrates most clearly the gaps between the assessments of the technical community and those of the publics. In order to understand such gaps, a theoretical framework is necessary. The broadest scope for such a framework is found in the I.I.A.S.A. - I.A.E.A. model developed by H.J. Otway, with its three interrelated components of risk estimation (technical), risk evaluation (public) and risk management. The model is described in this paper, as well as a number of empirical studies that derive from it and attempt to measure public perceptions of risks. These studies are then compared to several alternative explanations: the use of public opinion surveys; risk rating tasks based on psychologicl theory; the structure of arguments used by members of the public in qualitative focus group discussions; and a model of local community conflict derived from the content analysis of newspapers. Throughout the discussion, examples are taken wherever possible, from recent Canadian studies, in which the effects of major incidents (such as T.M.I., the Mississauga derailment, the Blind River refinery siting controversy, etc.) become apparent. It is suggested that our understanding of public perceptions of risks cannot be divorced from the set of broad societal concerns evidenced in the I.I.A.S.A. - I.A.E.A. model, and that the crucial elements of this approach are seen in its emphasis on the decision-making process

  16. Modeling thrombin generation: plasma composition based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummel-Ziedins, Kathleen E; Everse, Stephen J; Mann, Kenneth G; Orfeo, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Thrombin has multiple functions in blood coagulation and its regulation is central to maintaining the balance between hemorrhage and thrombosis. Empirical and computational methods that capture thrombin generation can provide advancements to current clinical screening of the hemostatic balance at the level of the individual. In any individual, procoagulant and anticoagulant factor levels together act to generate a unique coagulation phenotype (net balance) that is reflective of the sum of its developmental, environmental, genetic, nutritional and pharmacological influences. Defining such thrombin phenotypes may provide a means to track disease progression pre-crisis. In this review we briefly describe thrombin function, methods for assessing thrombin dynamics as a phenotypic marker, computationally derived thrombin phenotypes versus determined clinical phenotypes, the boundaries of normal range thrombin generation using plasma composition based approaches and the feasibility of these approaches for predicting risk.

  17. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  19. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2009-01-01

    For offshore wind turbines costs to operation and maintenance are substantial. This paper describes a risk-based lifecycle approach for optimal planning of operation and maintenance. The approach is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision theory. Deterioration mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion...

  20. Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

    2009-04-01

    The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

  1. Analyzing the Correlation between Deer Habitat and the Component of the Risk for Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada: A GIS-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongmei Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lyme borreliosis, caused by the bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, is an emerging vector-borne infectious disease in Canada. According to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC, by the year 2020, 80% of Canadians will live in Lyme endemic areas. An understanding of the association of Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease, with it hosts is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for Lyme disease. Through the application of Geographic Information System (GIS mapping methods and spatial analysis techniques, this study examines the population dynamics of the black-legged Lyme tick and its primary host, the white-tailed deer, in eastern Ontario, Canada. By developing a habitat suitability model through a GIS-based multi-criteria decision making (MCDM analysis, the relationship of the deer habitat suitability map was generated and the results were compared with deer harvest data. Tick submission data collected from two public health units between 2006 and 2012 were used to explore the relationship between endemic ticks and deer habitat suitability in eastern Ontario. The positive correlation demonstrated between the deer habitat suitability model and deer harvest data allows us to further analyze the association between deer habitat and black-legged ticks in our study area. Our results revealed that the high tick submission number corresponds with the high suitability. These results are useful for developing management strategies that aim to prevent Lyme from becoming a threat to public health in Canada. Further studies are required to investigate how tick survival, behaviour and seasonal activity may change with projected climate change.

  2. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  3. Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

  4. LESSONS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF A 5-YR PERIOD OF PRESHIPMENT TESTING AT SAN DIEGO ZOO: A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO PRESHIPMENT TESTING MAY BENEFIT ANIMAL WELFARE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinkovich, Matt; Wallace, Chelsea; Morris, Pat J; Rideout, Bruce; Pye, Geoffrey W

    2016-03-01

    The preshipment examination, with associated transmissible disease testing, has become standard practice in the movement of animals between zoos. An alternative disease risk-based approach, based on a comprehensive surveillance program including necropsy and preventive medicine examination testing and data, has been in practice since 2006 between the San Diego Zoo and San Diego Zoo Safari Park. A retrospective analysis, evaluating comprehensive necropsy data and preshipment testing over a 5-yr study period, was performed to determine the viability of this model for use with sending animals to other institutions. Animals (607 birds, 704 reptiles and amphibians, and 341 mammals) were shipped to 116 Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA)-accredited and 29 non-AZA-accredited institutions. The evaluation showed no evidence of the specific transmissible diseases tested for during the preshipment exam being present within the San Diego Zoo collection. We suggest that a risk-based animal and institution-specific approach to transmissible disease preshipment testing is more cost effective and is in the better interest of animal welfare than the current industry standard of dogmatic preshipment testing.

  5. Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonkinson, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

  6. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  7. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scislewski, Alexandro [Brazilian Nuclear Energy Comission (CNEN), Avenida Santana, 680, Centro, Caetite-Bahia, 46400-000 (Brazil); Zuddas, Pierpaolo [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris-Sorbonne, ISTEP place Jussieu, Tour 56-55, case 116, F75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2013-07-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  8. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scislewski, Alexandro; Zuddas, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  9. Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

  10. Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cipovová Eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

  11. Game-theoretic approaches to optimal risk sharing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.

    2014-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis studies optimal risk capital allocation and optimal risk sharing. The first chapter deals with the problem of optimally allocating risk capital across divisions within a financial institution. To do so, an asymptotic approach is used to generalize the well-studied Aumann-Shapley

  12. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  13. Materiality in a Practice-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svabo, Connie

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The paper aims to provide an overview of the vocabulary for materiality which is used by practice-based approaches to organizational knowing. Design/methodology/approach: The overview is theoretically generated and is based on the anthology Knowing in Organizations: A Practice-based Approach edited by Nicolini, Gherardi and Yanow. The…

  14. Mitigation of the threat posed to transfusion by donors traveling to Zika-affected areas: a Canadian risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germain, Marc; Delage, Gilles; O'Brien, Sheila F; Grégoire, Yves; Fearon, Margaret; Devine, Dana

    2017-10-01

    The recent spread of the Zika virus to the Americas and the recognition that it can cause severe disease in the developing fetus has prompted the adoption of measures to mitigate the risk that this virus might pose to transfusion safety. In nonendemic countries, the risk to transfusion results from donors traveling to an endemic region. Canada implemented a 21-day temporary deferral for prospective donors who traveled to such regions. We present the rationale for this policy, including a quantitative risk assessment supported by a Monte Carlo simulation. The model considered the following parameters, each with specified values and ranges: the probability that a donor recently returned from a Zika-endemic region, the duration of travel to this region, the daily risk of acquiring Zika while in an endemic region, and the incubation and viremic periods. We ran the simulation 20 times, each with 10 million iterations. In the absence of any travel deferral, 32 donors (range, 20-46 donors) would be able to donate while still being at risk of transmitting Zika, corresponding to a rate of 1:312,500 (range, 1:217,000 to 1:500,000). None of these donors would be viremic beyond 21 days after returning from their travel, with a risk estimated at less than 1:200,000,000. A 21-day temporary travel deferral offers an extremely wide margin of safety for the possible transmission of Zika by a donation obtained from someone who recently returned from a country where the virus is circulating. © 2017 AABB.

  15. Risk-based emergency decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koerte, Jens

    2003-01-01

    In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

  16. A risk-based model for maintenance decision support of civil structures using RAMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viana Da Rocha, T. C.; Stipanovic, I.; Hartmann, A.; Bakker, J.

    2017-01-01

    As a cornerstone of transportation asset management, risk-based approaches have been used to support maintenance decisions of civil structures. However, ambiguous and subjective risk criteria and inconsistency on the use of risk-based approaches can lead to a fuzzy understanding of the risks

  17. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  18. Risk-based approach to developing a national residue sampling plan for testing under European Union regulation for veterinary medicinal products and coccidiostat feed additives in domestic animal production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaher, Martin; Shanahan, Conor; Butler, Francis; Evans, Rhodri; O'Sullivan, Dan; Glynn, Denise; Camon, Tim; Lawlor, Peadar; O'Keeffe, Michael

    2016-07-01

    A ranking system for veterinary medicinal products and coccidiostat feed additives has been developed as a tool to be applied in a risk-based approach to the residue testing programme for foods of animal origin in the Irish National Residue Control Plan (NRCP). Three characteristics of substances that may occur as residues in food are included in the developed risk ranking system: Potency, as measured by the acceptable daily intake assigned by the European Medicines Agency Committee for Medicinal Products for Veterinary Use, to each substance; Usage, as measured by the three factors of Number of Doses, use on Individual animals or for Group treatment, and Withdrawal Period; and Residue Occurrence, as measured by the number of Non-Compliant Samples in the NRCP. For both Number of Doses and Non-Compliant Samples, data for the 5-year period 2008-12 have been used. The risk ranking system for substances was developed for beef cattle, sheep and goats, pigs, chickens and dairy cattle using a scoring system applied to the various parameters described above to give an overall score based on the following equation: Potency × Usage (Number of Doses + Individual/Group Use + Withdrawal Period) × Residue Occurrence. Applying this risk ranking system, the following substances are ranked very highly: antimicrobials such as amoxicillin (for all species except pigs), marbofloxacillin (for beef cattle), oxytetracycline (for all species except chickens), sulfadiazine with trimethoprim (for pigs and chickens) and tilmicosin (for chickens); antiparasitic drugs, such as the benzimidazoles triclabendazole (for beef and dairy cattle), fenbendazole/oxfendazole (for sheep/goats and dairy cattle) and albendazole (for dairy cattle), the avermectin ivermectin (for beef cattle), and anti-fluke drugs closantel and rafoxanide (for sheep/goats); the anticoccidials monensin, narasin, nicarbazin and toltrazuril (for chickens). The risk ranking system described is a relatively simple system

  19. Risk informed approach to the in-service inspection activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korosec, D.; Vojvodic Tuma, J.

    2004-01-01

    In the present paper, the aspects of Risk Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) are discussed. Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) and its authorized organization for the ISI activities, Institute of Metals and Technologies (IMT), are actually permanently involved in the ISI processes of the nuclear power plant (NPP) Krsko. Based on the previous experience on the ISI activities, evaluation of the results and review of the existing practice in nuclear world, the activities are started to asses the piping of systems in the light of probability of failure. This is so called Risk Informed approach. By the design established criteria, standards and practice gives good fundaments for the improvements implementation. Improvements can be done on the way that the more broad knowledge about safety important components of the systems shall bee added to the basic practice. It is necessary to identify conditions of the safety important components, such as realistic stress and fatigue conditions, material properties changes due aging processes, the temperature cycling effects, existing flaws characterization in the light of the previous detection and equipment technique used, assessment of the measurement accuracy on the results etc. In addition to this deterministic approach, the principles of risk evaluation methods should be used. NPP Krsko has, as practically majority of NPP's, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies for all safety important systems and components. The methods and results from these studies can be efficiently used to upgrade classical deterministic results, based on which the in-service program as a whole is usually done. In addition to the above mentioned, risk assessment and evaluation of the piping shall be done, which is not covered by the existing PRA analysis. To do this it is necessary to made risk evaluation of the piping segments, based on previous structural element probability assessment. Probabilistic risk assessment is important

  20. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  1. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  2. Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

  3. Identifying perinatal risk factors for infant maltreatment: an ecological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallisey Elaine J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Child maltreatment and its consequences are a persistent problem throughout the world. Public health workers, human services officials, and others are interested in new and efficient ways to determine which geographic areas to target for intervention programs and resources. To improve assessment efforts, selected perinatal factors were examined, both individually and in various combinations, to determine if they are associated with increased risk of infant maltreatment. State of Georgia birth records and abuse and neglect data were analyzed using an area-based, ecological approach with the census tract as a surrogate for the community. Cartographic visualization suggested some correlation exists between risk factors and child maltreatment, so bivariate and multivariate regression were performed. The presence of spatial autocorrelation precluded the use of traditional ordinary least squares regression, therefore a spatial regression model coupled with maximum likelihood estimation was employed. Results Results indicate that all individual factors or their combinations are significantly associated with increased risk of infant maltreatment. The set of perinatal risk factors that best predicts infant maltreatment rates are: mother smoked during pregnancy, families with three or more siblings, maternal age less than 20 years, births to unmarried mothers, Medicaid beneficiaries, and inadequate prenatal care. Conclusion This model enables public health to take a proactive stance, to reasonably predict areas where poor outcomes are likely to occur, and to therefore more efficiently allocate resources. U.S. states that routinely collect the variables the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS defines for birth certificates can easily identify areas that are at high risk for infant maltreatment. The authors recommend that agencies charged with reducing child maltreatment target communities that demonstrate the perinatal risks

  4. A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

    2014-05-01

    Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk

  5. Risk-Based Educational Accountability in Dutch Primary Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, A. C.; de Wolf, I. F.; Bosker, R. J.; Doolaard, S.

    2015-01-01

    A recent development in educational accountability is a risk-based approach, in which intensity and frequency of school inspections vary across schools to make educational accountability more efficient and effective by enabling inspectorates to focus on organizations at risk. Characteristics relevant in predicting which schools are "at risk…

  6. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  7. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  8. Systemic liquidity risk: a European approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    How should financial regulators address problems stemming from liquidity risk? This column argues that the liquidity coverage and net funding ratios proposed for Basel III are economically and politically impractical. It recommends using those ratios as long-term targets while imposing ‘prudential

  9. An evidence-based approach to medication preparation for the surgical patient at risk for latex allergy: is it time to stop being stopper poppers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitz, James W; Bader, Stephen O

    2010-09-01

    The prevalence of latex allergy is increasing in surgical patient populations. Avoidance of exposure to the allergen is essential to minimizing perioperative complications in patients suspected to be at risk. Natural rubber latex has historically been ubiquitous in medical devices containing rubber. In 1998, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) began to require the labeling of medical devices made from natural rubber latex; since that time substantial progress has been made in identifying latex-free alternatives. However, the rubber stoppers commonly found in pharmaceutical vial closures are exempt from FDA labeling requirements. Examination of the clinical and basic science literature regarding pharmaceutical vial closures supports limiting the rubber stopper to a single needle puncture as a safer practice, with the caveat that no strategy exists for the complete elimination of risk as long as stoppers made from natural rubber latex are used in pharmaceutical vials intended for human use. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Quantification of benzene in groundwater sources and risk analysis in a popular South Indian Pilgrimage City – A GIS based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Senthil kumar

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The present research work quantified the concentration of benzene in a total of hundred groundwater samples at the proximity of petrol bunks and residential places in Madurai District. The average values recorded in Jan 2011, Feb 2011 and Mar 2011 were 0.100 mg L−1 (10 times of PL, 0.138 mg L−1 (14 times of PL and 0.060 mg L−1 (6 times of PL respectively. A significant variation in the benzene level during February–March 2011 was validated through Student’s t-test analysis. Hierarchical cluster analysis using dendograms revealed the un-symmetric distribution of benzene during the study period. The cancer risk analysis at corporate locations among children was seven folds higher as compared to the risk of adults. The benzene concentration levels are interpreted using Arc Geographical Information System (Arc GIS through thematic maps.

  11. A Relative Ranking Approach for Nano-Enabled Applications to Improve Risk-Based Decision Making: A Case Study of Army Materiel

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-24

    accidental expo- sures to carbon nanotubes and copper flakes incorporated into energy and obscurant materiel by Army workers rank highest relative to...that inhalation from accidental exposures to carbon nanotubes and copper flakes incorporated into energy and obscurant materiel by Army workers rank... copper (Cu), and titanium (Ti) flakes used in smokes and obscurants ranked the highest on the risk scale for sce- narios primarily involving accidental

  12. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Zalk

    2011-06-01

    Conclusion: The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

  13. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  14. Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, P

    2013-11-01

    This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard E. Sleefe

    2010-01-01

    There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

  16. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  17. BP Oil Company's approach to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fryman, C.E.

    1996-01-01

    The oil and chemical industries face major challenges in deciding how to handle the numerous recommendations coming from various audits, reviews and studies conducted in the functional areas of personnel health and safety, loss prevention, and environmental protection. And, the number of recommendations continues to grow with time, as regulations and normal business requirements are met. BP Oil has developed a methodology for risk ranking the events leading to specific recommendations and then determining the cost-effectiveness of the recommendations in reducing the risk. The author completed successful pilot tests of this methodology at two of BP Oil's petroleum refineries, examining the recommendations from process hazards analyses and studies completed over the past few years. The methodology has since been implemented throughout their petroleum refining, distribution, transportation, and retail business streams

  18. Evacuation Risks: a tentative approach for quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastien, M.C.; Dumas, M.; Laporte, J; Parmentier, N.

    1985-01-01

    This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person-km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 32 10 -8 injuries per person-km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10 -8 injuries per person-km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations

  19. A margin of exposure approach to assessment of non-cancerous risk of diethyl phthalate based on human exposure from bottled water consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zare Jeddi, Maryam; Rastkari, Noushin; Ahmadkhaniha, Reza; Yunesian, Masud; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Daryabeygi, Reza

    2015-12-01

    Phthalates may be present in food due to their widespread presence as environmental contaminants or due to migration from food contact materials. Exposure to phthalates is considered to be potentially harmful to human health as well. Therefore, determining the main source of exposure is an important issue. So, the purpose of this study was (1) to measure the release of diethyl phthalate (DEP) in bottled water consumed in common storage conditions specially low temperature and freezing conditions; (2) to evaluate the intake of DEP from polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottled water and health risk assessment; and (3) to assess the contribution of the bottled water to the DEP intake against the tolerable daily intake (TDI) values. DEP migration was investigated in six brands of PET-bottled water under different storage conditions room temperature, refrigerator temperature, freezing conditions (40 °C ,0 °C and -18 °C) and outdoor] at various time intervals by magnetic solid extraction (MSPE) using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS). Eventually, a health risk assessment was conducted and the margin of exposure (MOE) was calculated. The results indicate that contact time with packaging and storage temperatures caused DEP to be released into water from PET bottles. But, when comprising the DEP concentration with initial level, the results demonstrated that the release of phthalates were not substantial in all storage conditions especially at low temperatures ( children > lactating women > teenagers > adults > pregnant women), but in all target groups, the MOE was much higher than 1000, thus, low risk is implied. Consequently, PET-bottled water is not a major source of human exposure to DEP and from this perspective is safe for consumption.

  20. Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

  1. [Risk-taking in adolescence: A neuroeconomics approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbalat, G; Domenech, P; Vernet, M; Fourneret, P

    2010-04-01

    Risk-taking behaviors represent the main cause of morbi-mortality in adolescence. Here, we analyze their neural correlates, based on a neuroeconomics approach. This approach postulates that risk-taking behaviors result from multiple decision-making biases that impair the selection of the most appropriate action among alternatives based on their subjective evaluation. Specifically, we investigate three important domains in value-based decision-making: risk aversion, loss aversion and intertemporal choice. First, when people have to make a decision between two rewarding options, they will usually prefer the more certain, even possibly lower, option - a phenomenon called "risk aversion". Yet adolescent people have been found to be less averse to risk than adults. This observation was linked to hypoactivation in (1) the anterior insula, involved in negative emotion such as fear and disgust and (2) the anterior cingular and the posterior ventromedial prefrontal cortices, involved in the monitoring of conflict and error detection. Second, people are generally described as being more sensitive to the possibility of losing objects than to that of gaining the same objects - "loss aversion". Here, we suggest that adolescents may be less averse to losses than adults when estimating the prospects of gaining and losing objects. Indeed, adolescent people have been found to be more affected by reward (e.g. euphoria or social integration consecutive to drug absorption) and less affected by punishment (e.g. malaise after drug consumption) than adults. Whereas the former process is subserved by hyperactivations in regions involved in reward evaluation such as the nucleus accumbens, the latter has been proposed to be subserved by hypoactivations in regions involved in negative emotions such as the amygdala or the insular cortex. This lower sensitivity to losses compared to gains in adolescents could be another important mechanism underlying risk-taking behaviors. A third dimension of

  2. ENGINEERING STUDIES BASED ON SYSTEM-MORPHOLOGICAL APPROACH AND AIMED AT EVALUATION OF RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH OIL AND GAS FACILITIES IN NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Zhirov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The technique of an engineering and geomorphological assessment of the territory with use of system and morphological approach within design researches in connection with arrangement of oil and gas fields is given. Advantages of preliminary allocation of linear and vulgar elements of a relief to the subsequent engineering and geomorphological mapping are shown. Communication of separate geotopological parameters with an assessment of breakdown rate of pipelines on the example of certain taiga and tundra territories in the Russian North is revealed.

  3. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

  4. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael C Münnix

    Full Text Available We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

  5. Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

    2005-12-01

    economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Homeland Security: A Risk Management Approach Can Guide Preparedness Efforts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Decker, Raymond

    2001-01-01

    .... Mail and postal workers. As requested, my testimony will focus on the work we have done over the past five years on combating terrorism and our recommendations advocating a risk management approach for such programs...

  10. Risk Financing for Schools: The Capital Markets Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, Richard G.

    1988-01-01

    The capital markets approach is an alternative means of risk financing whereby a school system establishes and controls its own insurance company and makes systematic contributions to pay for expected and anticipated losses and their associated costs. (MLF)

  11. Risk Modeling Approaches in Terms of Volatility Banking Transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Cucşa (Stratulat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The inseparability of risk and banking activity is one demonstrated ever since banking systems, the importance of the topic being presend in current life and future equally in the development of banking sector. Banking sector development is done in the context of the constraints of nature and number of existing risks and those that may arise, and serves as limiting the risk of banking activity. We intend to develop approaches to analyse risk through mathematical models by also developing a model for the Romanian capital market 10 active trading picks that will test investor reaction in controlled and uncontrolled conditions of risk aggregated with harmonised factors.

  12. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  13. A new perspective on Renn and Klinke's approach to risk evaluation and management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristensen, V.; Aven, T.; Ford, D.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we discuss Renn and Klinke's approach for risk evaluation and selection of risk management strategies. The main focus in the discussion is the foundational basis and the understanding of what risk is, and how a different foundational basis may simplify and improve the characterization of risk. We will present and discuss an alternative set of characteristics, and give some recommendations with respect to selection of risk management strategies based on different values or magnitudes of these characteristics. We believe that the main focus when describing and managing risk should be the potential consequences, represented by observable quantities, and the uncertainty related to their future values

  14. Cost tradeoffs in consequence management at nuclear power plants: A risk based approach to setting optimal long-term interdiction limits for regulatory analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mubayi, V.

    1995-05-01

    The consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants can be limited by various protective actions, including emergency responses and long-term measures, to reduce exposures of affected populations. Each of these protective actions involve costs to society. The costs of the long-term protective actions depend on the criterion adopted for the allowable level of long-term exposure. This criterion, called the ''long term interdiction limit,'' is expressed in terms of the projected dose to an individual over a certain time period from the long-term exposure pathways. The two measures of offsite consequences, latent cancers and costs, are inversely related and the choice of an interdiction limit is, in effect, a trade-off between these two measures. By monetizing the health effects (through ascribing a monetary value to life lost), the costs of the two consequence measures vary with the interdiction limit, the health effect costs increasing as the limit is relaxed and the protective action costs decreasing. The minimum of the total cost curve can be used to calculate an optimal long term interdiction limit. The calculation of such an optimal limit is presented for each of five US nuclear power plants which were analyzed for severe accident risk in the NUREG-1150 program by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  15. A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

    2007-03-01

    Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

  16. Earthworms and in vitro physiologically-based extraction tests : complementary tools for a holistic approach towards understanding risk at arsenic-contaminated sites

    OpenAIRE

    Button, Mark; Watts, Michael J.; Cave, Mark R.; Harrington, Chris F.; Jenkin, Gawen R.T.

    2009-01-01

    The relationship of the total arsenic content of a soil and its bioaccumulation by earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus and Dendrodrilus rubidus) to the arsenic fraction bioaccessible to humans, measured using an in vitro physiologically-based extraction test (PBET), was investigated. Soil and earthworm samples were collected at 24 sites at the former arsenic mine at the Devon Great Consols (DGC) in southwest England (UK), along with an uncontaminated site in Nottingham, UK, for comparison. Analysi...

  17. RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang LEE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

  18. Risk-informed approach in US-APWR technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saji, Etsuro; Tanaka, Futoshi; Kuroiwa, Katsuya; Kawai, Katsunori

    2009-01-01

    The Risk-Managed Technical Specifications and the Surveillance Frequency Control Program have been adopted in the US-APWR Technical Specifications. These risk-informed approaches are unique among the technical specifications for the advanced light water reactor designs adopted by planned nuclear power stations in the United States. (author)

  19. Risk assessment of heavy metals in Vembanad Lake sediments (south-west coast of India), based on acid-volatile sulfide (AVS)-simultaneously extracted metal (SEM) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shyleshchandran, Mohanachandran Nair; Mohan, Mahesh; Ramasamy, Eswara Venkatesaperumal

    2018-03-01

    Contamination of estuarine system due to heavy metals is a severe issue in tropical countries, especially in India. For the evaluation of the risk due to heavy metals, the current study assessed spatial and temporal variation of acid-volatile sulfide (AVS), simultaneously extracted metal (SEM), and total metal concentration as toxicity indicator of aquatic sediments in Vembanad Lake System (VLS), India. Surface sediment samples collected from 12 locations from the northern portion of VLS for 4 years during different seasons. The results suggest, in post-monsoon season, 91% of the sampling locations possessed high bioavailability of metals and results in toxicity to aquatic biota. The average seasonal distribution of SEM during the period of observations was in the order post-monsoon > pre-monsoon > monsoon (1.76 ± 2.00 > 1.35 ± 0.60 > 0.80 ± 0.54 μmol/g). The concentration of individual metals on ∑SEM are in the order SEM Zn > SEM Cu> SEM Cd ≈ SEM Pb > SEM Hg. Considering annual ΣSEM/AVS ratio, 83% of the sites cross the critical value of 'One,' reveals that active sulfide phase of the sediment for fixing the metals is saturated. The molar ratio (differences between SEM and AVS) and its normalized organic carbon ratio reveals that in the post-monsoon season, about 42% of the sites are in the category of adverse effects are possible. The study suggests the toxicity and mobility of the metals largely depend on the available AVS, and the current situation may pose harm to benthic organisms.

  20. AN APPROACH TO FRAUD RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica PUIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, globalisation and business internalisation have led to an increased number of frauds in organisations worldwide. The most affected are the multinational corporations because of the geographical distance, different fiscal systems and local factors that consist in tremendous opportunities for employees and/or managers to involve in fraud schemes. Starting from recent studies and prior efforts of international organisations or countries to stop fraud by imposing regulations to be respected for the economic environment, the purpose of the paper is finding the key factors for detecting and preventing fraud in the organisations. In our approach we use several proposals for a conceptual framework developed by two companies of “The big four”, KPMG and Deloitte. The results indicate that for the number of fraud to decrease, any organisation needs to develop and implement a strong anti-fraud plan, by covering all logical steps to be made in this matter.

  1. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  2. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

    1998-07-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  3. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L.

    1998-01-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  4. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  5. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  6. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  7. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)

  8. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

  9. A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Fedoroff, J Paul; Curry, Susan; Amundsen, David E

    2010-10-01

    For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

  10. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  11. Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

  12. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  13. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  14. Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

    1991-08-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Study on Risk Approaches in Software Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk approaches in project development led to the integration in the IT project management methodologies and software development of activities and processes of risk management. The diversity and the advanced level of the used technologies in IT projects with increasing com-plexity leads to an exponential diversification of risk factors.The purpose of this research is to identify the level of the risk approach in IT projects both at the IT project management and software development methodologies level and the level of the perception of IT project man-agers, IT managers and IT analysts in Romanian IT companies. Thus, we want to determine the correlation between the use of a project management or software development methodology and the overall level of risk perceived by the project managers using these methodologies.

  16. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  17. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

  18. Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

  19. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

  20. An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...

  1. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  2. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leyla V. Kaufman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  3. Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

    2015-12-01

    A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

  4. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L−1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence – as cell numbers or biomass – rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  5. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-12-01

    Toxic cyanobacteria became more widely recognized as a potential health hazard in the 1990s, and in 1998 the World Health Organization (WHO) first published a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg L -1 for microcystin-LR in drinking-water. In this publication we compare risk assessment and risk management of toxic cyanobacteria in 17 countries across all five continents. We focus on the three main (oral) exposure vehicles to cyanotoxins: drinking-water, water related recreational and freshwater seafood. Most countries have implemented the provisional WHO Guideline Value, some as legally binding standard, to ensure the distribution of safe drinking-water with respect to microcystins. Regulation, however, also needs to address the possible presence of a wide range of other cyanotoxins and bioactive compounds, for which no guideline values can be derived due to insufficient toxicological data. The presence of microcystins (commonly expressed as microcystin-LR equivalents) may be used as proxy for overall guidance on risk management, but this simplification may miss certain risks, for instance from dissolved fractions of cylindrospermopsin and cyanobacterial neurotoxins. An alternative approach, often taken for risk assessment and management in recreational waters, is to regulate cyanobacterial presence - as cell numbers or biomass - rather than individual toxins. Here, many countries have implemented a two or three tier alert level system with incremental severity. These systems define the levels where responses are switched from Surveillance to Alert and finally to Action Mode and they specify the short-term actions that follow. Surface bloom formation is commonly judged to be a significant risk because of the elevated concentration of microcystins in a scum. Countries have based their derivations of legally binding standards, guideline values, maximally allowed concentrations (or limits named otherwise) on very similar scientific methodology, but underlying

  6. A discussion of the limitations of the psychometric and cultural theory approaches to risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk perception has traditionally been conceived as a cognitive phenomenon, basically a question of information processing. The very term perception suggests that information processing is involved and of crucial importance. Kahneman and Tversky suggested that the use of 'heuristics' in the intuitive estimation of probabilities accounts for biased probability perception, hence claiming to explain risk perception as well. The psychometric approach of Slovic et al, a further step in in the cognitive tradition, conceives of perceived risk as a function of general properties of a hazard. However, the psychometric approach is shown here to explain only about 20% of the variance of perceived risk, even less of risk acceptability. Its claim to explanatory power is based on a statistical illusion: mean values were investigated and accounted for, across hazards. A currently popular alternative to the psychometric tradition, Cultural Theory, is even less successful and explains only about 5% of the variance of perceived risk. The claims of this approach were also based on a statistical illusion: 'significant' results were reported and interpreted as being of substantial importance. The present paper presents a new approach: attitude to the risk generating technology, general sensitivity to risks and specific risk explained well over 60% of the variance of perceived risk of nuclear waste, in a study of extensive data from a representative sample of the Swedish population. The attitude component functioning as an explanatory factor of perceived risk, rather than as a consequence of perceived risk, suggests strongly that perceived risk is something other than cognition. Implications for risk communication are discussed. (author)

  7. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  8. Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

  9. Understanding images using knowledge based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tascini, G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to image understanding focusing on low level image processing and proposes a rule-based approach as part of larger knowledge-based system. The general system has a yerarchical structure that comprises several knowledge-based layers. The main idea is to confine at the lower level the domain independent knowledge and to reserve the higher levels for the domain dependent knowledge, that is for the interpretation

  10. Developing risk management dashboards using risk and quality measures: A visual best practices approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunting, Robert F; Siegal, Dana

    2017-10-01

    Because quality measures are ubiquitous, health care risk management leaders often use them as a proxy for risk management measures. While certain quality measures adequately reflect some aspects of risk management, they are neither a perfect nor complete substitute for well-developed and comprehensive risk management measures. Using a comprehensive approach consisting of quality measures, risk measures, and measures that are less amenable to classification would be the best approach. Identifying the most powerful and informative measures, designing the most appropriate dashboards, and incorporating visual best practices are crucial steps required for evaluating the effectiveness and value of an enterprise risk management program. The authors explain the terms and concepts, review the measures available in the literature, propose new measures, discuss visual best practices, and provide sample dashboard components. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  11. Toxin-Based Therapeutic Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itai Benhar

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Protein toxins confer a defense against predation/grazing or a superior pathogenic competence upon the producing organism. Such toxins have been perfected through evolution in poisonous animals/plants and pathogenic bacteria. Over the past five decades, a lot of effort has been invested in studying their mechanism of action, the way they contribute to pathogenicity and in the development of antidotes that neutralize their action. In parallel, many research groups turned to explore the pharmaceutical potential of such toxins when they are used to efficiently impair essential cellular processes and/or damage the integrity of their target cells. The following review summarizes major advances in the field of toxin based therapeutics and offers a comprehensive description of the mode of action of each applied toxin.

  12. Toxin-Based Therapeutic Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Assaf; Benhar, Itai

    2010-01-01

    Protein toxins confer a defense against predation/grazing or a superior pathogenic competence upon the producing organism. Such toxins have been perfected through evolution in poisonous animals/plants and pathogenic bacteria. Over the past five decades, a lot of effort has been invested in studying their mechanism of action, the way they contribute to pathogenicity and in the development of antidotes that neutralize their action. In parallel, many research groups turned to explore the pharmaceutical potential of such toxins when they are used to efficiently impair essential cellular processes and/or damage the integrity of their target cells. The following review summarizes major advances in the field of toxin based therapeutics and offers a comprehensive description of the mode of action of each applied toxin. PMID:22069564

  13. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  14. Modern Approaches to Risk Management and Their Use in Customs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vita Afanasieva

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article the analysis of experience and best practices of Europe and the world regarding the methods and tools of risk management in customs affairs. In accordance with the requirements of the Kyoto Convention the risk management is the main basic principle of modern customs control methods, which allows optimal use of resources of customs bodies, without reducing the effectiveness of customs controls, and exempt the majority of foreign trade operators from unnecessary bureaucratic control. Procedures based on risk management, concentrate customs control on areas, where there is the greatest risk, allowing the bulk of goods and individuals relatively free to pass the checkpoint at the customs border Special attention is paid to the principles and methods of risk management and their impact on the simplification of customs procedures through the use of risk-based thinking. The paper discusses the problems concerning the application and implementation of modern risk management techniques in customs procedures subject to the requirements of international standards ISO for the quality management system and risk management based on risk-based thinking.

  15. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  16. Multiobjective genetic algorithm approaches to project scheduling under risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kılıç, Murat; Kilic, Murat

    2003-01-01

    In this thesis, project scheduling under risk is chosen as the topic of research. Project scheduling under risk is defined as a biobjective decision problem and is formulated as a 0-1 integer mathematical programming model. In this biobjective formulation, one of the objectives is taken as the expected makespan minimization and the other is taken as the expected cost minimization. As the solution approach to this biobjective formulation genetic algorithm (GA) is chosen. After carefully invest...

  17. Mapping between Classical Risk Management and Game Theoretical Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Rajbhandari , Lisa; Snekkenes , Einar ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 2: Work in Progress; International audience; In a typical classical risk assessment approach, the probabilities are usually guessed and not much guidance is provided on how to get the probabilities right. When coming up with probabilities, people are generally not well calibrated. History may not always be a very good teacher. Hence, in this paper, we explain how game theory can be integrated into classical risk management. Game theory puts emphasis on collecting representative data on h...

  18. Bayesian probabilistic network approach for managing earthquake risks of cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bayraktarli, Yahya; Faber, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers the application of Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPNs) to large-scale risk based decision making in regard to earthquake risks. A recently developed risk management framework is outlined which utilises Bayesian probabilistic modelling, generic indicator based risk models...... and a fourth module on the consequences of an earthquake. Each of these modules is integrated into a BPN. Special attention is given to aggregated risk, i.e. the risk contribution from assets at multiple locations in a city subjected to the same earthquake. The application of the methodology is illustrated...... on an example considering a portfolio of reinforced concrete structures in a city located close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey....

  19. Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2014-12-01

    Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional

  20. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  1. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  2. Development of new risk based regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, L.

    1999-01-01

    A short presentation of the oil and gas industry in Norway, and a brief overview of the regulatory regime in the petroleum sector in Norway is given. Risk analysis has been performed in Norway since 1981 and the various applications will be described. These risk analyses are quite different from a nuclear PSA and some of these differences will be commented. Risk based optimisation techniques such as RCM (Reliability Centred Maintenance) and Risk Based Inspection is used in the industry, with very limited support from the risk analysis. Some of the limitation that exist when such techniques are imported from other industries will be commented on. NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) is revising our regulations and some of the future plants when it comes to risk informed regulatory requirements will be presented. (au)

  3. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. AUTOCHTHONOUS APPROACHING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE SECURITY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burtescu Emil

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available An optimal management for a corporation, no matter what size the corporation is, it must contain the management of the security risk. On the importance that is given to the risk management can depend the well functioning of the corporation. An important role in this process has the owner of the business and the way that this one understands the risk. A good understanding of the risk by the owner will have as effect the allocation of sufficient funds to implement controls meant to bring the risk level in order to be an acceptable one. The autochthonous corporations, in a great part even because of the inexistence of reglementations in this domain, have an empiric approach of the phenomena.

  5. Service creation: a model-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quartel, Dick; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Ferreira Pires, Luis

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a model-based approach to support service creation. In this approach, services are assumed to be created from (available) software components. The creation process may involve multiple design steps in which the requested service is repeatedly decomposed into more detailed

  6. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  7. Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

  8. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  9. Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

  10. Overview of the risk management approach to adaptation to climate change in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, D.; Bruce, J.; Egener, M.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses risks related to frequent and extreme weather events, changes in water availability and changes in the performance of infrastructure systems. Risk management offers a decision-making framework to assist in the selection of optimal or cost-effective strategies using a systematic public process. Risks related to climate change are a new type of risk and are increasingly of concern for governments and citizens around the world. An introduction to risk-based approaches to climate change adaptation decision-making in Canada was presented in this paper. Steps in the risk management process were presented. Risk management approaches from various countries were reviewed, including the Canadian Standards Association's (CSA) national risk management guideline; the Government of Canada's Integrated Risk Management Framework; the Caribbean Risk Management Guideline; World Bank risk management strategies for adaptation to climate change; and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program. Details of a study conducted by the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs to explore the implications of climate change were also presented. Vulnerabilities of response mechanisms to climate change and the interrelations of public systems were reviewed. Issues concerning infrastructure renewal and development were examined, as well as emergency planning and management strategies. It was concluded that the development of training materials and tools for decision-makers in Canada is needed. A climate change risk management planning guidebook was proposed. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  12. Risk Based Optimal Fatigue Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, M.H.; Kroon, I.B.

    1992-01-01

    Optimal fatigue life testing of materials is considered. Based on minimization of the total expected costs of a mechanical component a strategy is suggested to determine the optimal stress range levels for which additional experiments are to be performed together with an optimal value...

  13. Incidence, risk factors, and pregnancy outcomes of gestational diabetes mellitus using one-step versus two-step diagnostic approaches: A population-based cohort study in Isfahan, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Elham; Janghorbani, Mohsen; Aminorroaya, Ashraf

    2018-06-01

    To study the incidence, risk factors, and pregnancy outcomes associated with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) diagnosed with one-step and two-step screening approaches. 1000 pregnant women who were eligible and consented to participate underwent fasting plasma glucose testing at the first prenatal visit (6-14 weeks). The women free from GDM or overt diabetes were screened at 24-28 weeks using the 50-g glucose challenge test (GCT) followed by 100-g, 3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (two-step method). Regardless of the GCT result, all women underwent a 75-g, 2-h OGTT within one-week interval (one-step method). GDM incidence using the one-step and two-step methods was 9.3% (95% CI: 7.4-11.2) and 4.2% (95% CI: 2.9-5.5). GDM significantly increased the risk of macrosomia, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and cesarean section and older age and family history of diabetes significantly increased the risk of developing GDM in both approaches. In two-step method, higher pre-pregnancy body mass index and lower physical activity during pregnancy along with higher earlier cesarean section also increased significantly the risk of developing GDM. Despite a higher incidence of GDM using the one-step approach, more risk factors for and a stronger effect of GDM on adverse pregnancy outcomes were found when using the two-step approach. Longer follow-up of women with and without GDM may change the results using both approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A different approach to quantifying fire risks when decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, Adrian

    1991-01-01

    This article outlines an alternative approach to fire safety design which involves decision making on the basis of risk considerations. The methodology is being developed in conjunction with the nuclear industry but is considered equally applicable to other industrial facilities. (author)

  15. Validity of various epidemiological approaches to assessing radon health risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrath, S.M.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper various epidemiologic study designs are defined and evaluated for their utility in assessing radon health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are addressed. Common pitfalls and errors of epidemiologic method are delineated with examples of causes and remedies

  16. WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

  17. Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O [Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.). Programmgruppe Technik und Gesellschaft; Swaton, E [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). Joint IAEA-IIASA Risk Assessment Group

    1984-01-01

    Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed.

  18. Psychological and sociological approaches to study risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Swaton, E.

    1984-01-01

    Technological progress and its impacts on humankind has caused an increasing awareness of risk, and objective, statistical estimations are often inadequate to alleviate the public's fright and fear. Research on risk perception using psychological and sociological approaches is trying to bridge this gap. As a first step, a distinction must be made between the technical definition of risk (probability x consequences) and the social definition, in which additional parameters (source, dimensions, timeframe, exposure) need to be included. The methodology of risk assessment, though objective by design, is limited in the interpretability of its results, if the calculation of consequences does not take public perceptions and social effects into account. The problems and advantages of risk assessment are discussed, and the key questions for risk perception research are presented. Various techniques are available to study risk perception and attitudes towards risk; selection of a specific technique is determined by the objective of the research, namely sociological implications or psychological cognitions. Several empirical studies in both areas are presented and the results discussed. (author)

  19. A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

  20. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  1. Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

    2009-01-01

    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  2. A possibilistic analysis approach for environmental risk assessment of petroleum-contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fuller, G.A.

    1999-01-01

    A possibilistic approach for assessing risks associated with petroleum-contaminated sites is provided. The approach is applied to an illustrative case study in order to show its applicability and implementation for decision making in effective site remediation and management. The approach consists of three main parts: (1) the determination of fuzzy steady state contaminant concentrations in a aquifer based on an analytical solute transport model; (2) possibilistic analysis of fuzzy criteria for different risk levels; and (3) environmental risk assessment based on the Euclidian method. Based on results from an illustrative case study, environmental risks at a petroleum-contaminated site can be effectively evaluated using the developed methodology. The risk assessment framework can effectively handle uncertainities presented as fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy nature of water quality and risk level criteria were seen in the related simulation and evaluation models, and the framework is especially useful for situations in which probabilistic information is not available. This use of this approach is new in the area of petroleum waste management under uncertainty, and its results are useful for the related site remediation and management decisions. 36 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  3. Integrating physical and financial approaches to manage environmental financial risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, Gregory; Meyer, Eliot; Foster, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Physical and/or engineered solutions have long been used to manage risks associated with adverse environmental events. Examples include reservoirs as a tool for mitigating drought-related supply risk, levees for managing flood risk and dredging of inland waterways to ensure navigability during low flow periods. These measures can reduce many types of risk (e.g., loss of life), but are often employed as a means of protecting against financial losses. When the focus is on managing environmental financial risk, physical solutions can be effective, but also costly. In many cases, non-physical tools can provide a less expensive means of managing financial risk, with these often taking the form of financial instruments such as hedging contracts, contingency funds or insurance. Some of these instruments, such as flood insurance, are widely available, but historically many environmental financial risks have been managed primarily (or solely) via physical solutions without much consideration of alternatives, thereby opening opportunities for innovation in developing financial solutions. Recent research has demonstrated that financial instruments can play a significant role in managing drought-related financial risk in sectors as diverse as water utilities, energy generation and inland navigation. Nonetheless, this work has largely considered the use of these instruments within systems in which physical solutions are already in place (but failing to achieve desired performance). The next step in the evolution of managing environmental financial risk involves developing methods for designing risk management strategies that do not assume an established physical system. Here the goal is to identify the relative role that physical solutions and financial instruments should play as they are integrated into a comprehensive risk management strategy. This is not a straightforward challenge as one approach reduces the risk of financial losses and the other redistributes those losses

  4. Integrated systems approach identifies risk regulatory pathways and key regulators in coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Liu, Dianming; Wang, Lihong; Wang, Shuyuan; Yu, Xuexin; Dai, Enyu; Liu, Xinyi; Luo, Shanshun; Jiang, Wei

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common type of heart disease. However, the molecular mechanisms of CAD remain elusive. Regulatory pathways are known to play crucial roles in many pathogenic processes. Thus, inferring risk regulatory pathways is an important step toward elucidating the mechanisms underlying CAD. With advances in high-throughput data, we developed an integrated systems approach to identify CAD risk regulatory pathways and key regulators. Firstly, a CAD-related core subnetwork was identified from a curated transcription factor (TF) and microRNA (miRNA) regulatory network based on a random walk algorithm. Secondly, candidate risk regulatory pathways were extracted from the subnetwork by applying a breadth-first search (BFS) algorithm. Then, risk regulatory pathways were prioritized based on multiple CAD-associated data sources. Finally, we also proposed a new measure to prioritize upstream regulators. We inferred that phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) may be a key regulator in the dysregulation of risk regulatory pathways. This study takes a closer step than the identification of disease subnetworks or modules. From the risk regulatory pathways, we could understand the flow of regulatory information in the initiation and progression of the disease. Our approach helps to uncover its potential etiology. We developed an integrated systems approach to identify risk regulatory pathways. We proposed a new measure to prioritize the key regulators in CAD. PTEN may be a key regulator in dysregulation of the risk regulatory pathways.

  5. Advantages of condition-based maintenance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bareiss, J.; Roos, E.; Jovanovic, A.; Perunicic, M.; Balos, D.

    2004-01-01

    Pilot applications in EnBW steam boiler components and high-pressure pipe systems in the context of the European research project RIMAP (''Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industry'') showed that application of a risk-based maintenance strategy (e.g. RIMAP) will make the decision process more transparent and enable better condition-oriented maintenance. With regard to life management of the systems (availability, product quality), this appears to be more important than than the aspect of cost reduction in the maintenance sector, although the latter may not be unwelcome. (orig.) [de

  6. An Integrated Soft Computing Approach to Hughes Syndrome Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilhena, João; Rosário Martins, M; Vicente, Henrique; Grañeda, José M; Caldeira, Filomena; Gusmão, Rodrigo; Neves, João; Neves, José

    2017-03-01

    The AntiPhospholipid Syndrome (APS) is an acquired autoimmune disorder induced by high levels of antiphospholipid antibodies that cause arterial and veins thrombosis, as well as pregnancy-related complications and morbidity, as clinical manifestations. This autoimmune hypercoagulable state, usually known as Hughes syndrome, has severe consequences for the patients, being one of the main causes of thrombotic disorders and death. Therefore, it is required to be preventive; being aware of how probable is to have that kind of syndrome. Despite the updated of antiphospholipid syndrome classification, the diagnosis remains difficult to establish. Additional research on clinically relevant antibodies and standardization of their quantification are required in order to improve the antiphospholipid syndrome risk assessment. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a computational framework based on Artificial Neural Networks. The proposed model allows for improving the diagnosis, classifying properly the patients that really presented this pathology (sensitivity higher than 85%), as well as classifying the absence of APS (specificity close to 95%).

  7. Injury prevention risk communication: A mental models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Austin, Laurel Cecelia; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2012-01-01

    fail to see risks, do not make use of available protective interventions or misjudge the effectiveness of protective measures. If these misunderstandings can be reduced through context-appropriate risk communications, then their improved mental models may help people to engage more effectively...... and create an expert model of the risk situation, interviewing lay people to elicit their comparable mental models, and developing and evaluating communication interventions designed to close the gaps between lay people and experts. This paper reviews the theory and method behind this research stream...... interventions on the most critical opportunities to reduce risks. That research often seeks to identify the ‘mental models’ that underlie individuals' interpretations of their circumstances and the outcomes of possible actions. In the context of injury prevention, a mental models approach would ask why people...

  8. Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

    2015-10-01

    Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A Knowledge Based Approach to VLSI CAD

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-01

    Avail-and/or Dist ISpecial L| OI. SEICURITY CLASIIrCATION OP THIS IPA.lErllm S Daene." A KNOwLEDE BASED APPROACH TO VLSI CAD’ Louis L Steinberg and...major issues lies in building up and managing the knowledge base of oesign expertise. We expect that, as with many recent expert systems, in order to

  10. Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    and approaches which have been developed or proposed by large organizations or regulatory bodies for NM. These frameworks and approaches were evaluated and assessed based on a select number of criteria which have been previously proposed as important parameters for inclusion in successful risk assessment......7.1.7 Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials Khara D. Grieger1, Igor Linkov2, Steffen Foss Hansen1, Anders Baun1 1Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 2Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Brookline, USA...... Email: kdg@env.dtu.dk Scientists, organizations, governments, and policy-makers are currently involved in reviewing, adapting, and formulating risk assessment frameworks and strategies to understand and assess the potential environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM). It is becoming...

  11. The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

    2005-01-01

    Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

  12. [DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

  13. Multi-analytical Approaches Informing the Risk of Sepsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Lewden, Benoit; Mequanint, Selam; Bauer, Michael

    Sepsis is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity and is often associated with increased hospital resource utilization, prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay. The economic burden associated with sepsis is huge. With advances in medicine, there are now aggressive goal oriented treatments that can be used to help these patients. If we were able to predict which patients may be at risk for sepsis we could start treatment early and potentially reduce the risk of mortality and morbidity. Analytic methods currently used in clinical research to determine the risk of a patient developing sepsis may be further enhanced by using multi-modal analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater precision. Researchers commonly use univariate and multivariate regressions to develop predictive models. We hypothesized that such models could be enhanced by using multiple analytic methods that together could be used to provide greater insight. In this paper, we analyze data about patients with and without sepsis using a decision tree approach and a cluster analysis approach. A comparison with a regression approach shows strong similarity among variables identified, though not an exact match. We compare the variables identified by the different approaches and draw conclusions about the respective predictive capabilities,while considering their clinical significance.

  14. A data-driven approach to quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemayehu, Demissie; Alvir, Jose; Levenstein, Marcia; Nickerson, David

    2013-10-01

    An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. ONLY A SUBSET OF THE RISK FACTORS HAD A SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATION WITH QUALITY ISSUES, AND INCLUDED: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety.

  15. A data-driven approach to quality risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demissie Alemayehu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: An effective clinical trial strategy to ensure patient safety as well as trial quality and efficiency involves an integrated approach, including prospective identification of risk factors, mitigation of the risks through proper study design and execution, and assessment of quality metrics in real-time. Such an integrated quality management plan may also be enhanced by using data-driven techniques to identify risk factors that are most relevant in predicting quality issues associated with a trial. In this paper, we illustrate such an approach using data collected from actual clinical trials. Materials and Methods: Several statistical methods were employed, including the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and logistic regression, to identify the presence of association between risk factors and the occurrence of quality issues, applied to data on quality of clinical trials sponsored by Pfizer. Results: Only a subset of the risk factors had a significant association with quality issues, and included: Whether study used Placebo, whether an agent was a biologic, unusual packaging label, complex dosing, and over 25 planned procedures. Conclusion: Proper implementation of the strategy can help to optimize resource utilization without compromising trial integrity and patient safety.

  16. An approach to grouping species for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, N.L.; VanHorn, R.L.; Morris, R.; Brewer, R.

    1994-01-01

    The ecological risk assessment (ERA) paradigm acknowledges all levels of ecological organization as having potential for defining assessment and measurement endpoints. However, assessment goals and endpoints are generally concentrated at individual species and population levels. As part of a sitewide, screening-level ERA process at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), a ''functional group'' approach was developed to incorporate assessment at a higher level of ecological organization into the risk analysis process. Functional groups demonstrating biological similarity and similar potential for contaminant exposure were developed using taxonomic, trophic and habitat parameters. As defined, all species are potential surrogates for the other members of the same functional group. Measurement endpoint data for several species may be integrated to address the risk to the group as a whole. The functional group concept was applied throughout the problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization phases of the assessment process. This approach allows the ERA to be focused on risk to the integrity of individual functional groups, which can subsequently be related to guild and community integrity

  17. Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

    2017-11-01

    Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. An approach for balancing health and ecological risks at hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Hull, R.N.; Stack, M.; Cornaby, B.W.; Hadden, C.T.; Zafran, F.A.

    1995-01-01

    Human health and ecological risks must be balanced at hazardous waste sites in order to ensure that remedial actions prevent unacceptable risks of either type. Actions that are designed to protect humans may fail to protect nonhuman populations and ecosystems or may damage ecosystems. However, there is no common scale of health and ecological risk that would allow comparisons to be performed. This paper presents an approach to addressing this problem based on classifying all risks (i.e., health and ecological risks due contaminants and remediation) as insignificant (de minimis), highly significant (de manifestis), or intermediate. For health risks the classification is based on standard criteria. However, in the absence of national guidance concerning the acceptability of ecological risks, new ecological criteria are proposed based on an analysis of regulatory precedents. Matrices and flow charts are presented to guide the use of these risk categories in remedial decision making. The assessment of mercury contamination of the East Fork Poplar Creek is presented as an example of the implementation of the approach. 15 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

    to oil and gas structures. In addition, condition monitoring systems are often available, and the information should be taken into account when making decisions. In this thesis, methods for risk-based maintenance planning using Bayesian methods are investigated, with the aim of making optimal decisions......, but presently maintenance is not planned using advanced methods taking all available information into account in a consistent manner. Maintenance decisions can be made based on risk-based methods, where the total expected life cycle costs are minimized. Methods have been developed for assessing the corrective...... considering all available information. First, a theoretical damage model is formulated, the model is then updated using condition monitoring data, and the updated model is used as basis for risk-based decision making. Several approaches for solving the decision problems have been considered: various types...

  20. Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, Jesse A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

  1. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  2. Risk-based and deterministic regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

    1995-07-01

    Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

  3. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellman, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral

  5. Practical risk-based decision making: Good decisions made efficiently

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Guthrie, V.; Walker, D.; Singer, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Robotics and Process Systems Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Westinghouse Savannah River Company have teamed with JBF Associates, Inc. to address risk-based robotic planning. The objective of the project is to provide systematic, risk-based relative comparisons of competing alternatives for solving clean-up problems at DOE facilities. This paper presents the methodology developed, describes the software developed to efficiently apply the methodology, and discusses the results of initial applications for DOE. The paper also addresses current work in applying the approach to problems in other industries (including an example from the hydrocarbon processing industry)

  6. RISK, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Iwama,Allan Yu; Batistella,Mateus; Ferreira,Lúcia da Costa; Alves,Diogenes Salas; Ferreira,Leila da Costa

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study addresses risk, vulnerability, and their implications for the adaptation of communities to the problems they face in the everyday life and to those derived from climate change. Based on the literature about risk, vulnerability and adaptation to disasters and on a case study conducted in the Northern coast of São Paulo - Brazil, we summarize the converging themes in the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which are divided in three components: (i) in...

  7. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  8. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

    2012-12-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

  10. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  11. On Cyber Risk Management of Blockchain Networks: A Game Theoretic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Shaohan; Wang, Wenbo; Xiong, Zehui; Niyato, Dusit; Wang, Ping; Wang, Shaun Shuxun

    2018-01-01

    Open-access blockchains based on proof-of-work protocols have gained tremendous popularity for their capabilities of providing decentralized tamper-proof ledgers and platforms for data-driven autonomous organization. Nevertheless, the proof-of-work based consensus protocols are vulnerable to cyber-attacks such as double-spending. In this paper, we propose a novel approach of cyber risk management for blockchain-based service. In particular, we adopt the cyber-insurance as an economic tool for...

  12. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: The Australian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss cur-rent and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and, environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from are think in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications

  13. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: the Australian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents t