WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assuming log-additive

  1. Inherent Risk or Risky Decision? Coach's Failure to Use Safety Device an Assumed Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodds, Mark A.; Bochicchio, Kristi Schoepfer

    2013-01-01

    The court examined whether a coach's failure to implement a safety device during pitching practice enhanced the risk to the athlete or resulted in a suboptimal playing condition, in the context of the assumption of risk doctrine.

  2. Attitudes and Willingness to Assume Risk of Experimental Therapy to Eradicate Genital Herpes Simplex Virus Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oseso, Linda; Magaret, Amalia S; Jerome, Keith R; Fox, Julie; Wald, Anna

    2016-09-01

    Current treatment of genital herpes is focused on ameliorating signs and symptoms but is not curative. However, as potential herpes simplex virus (HSV) cure approaches are tested in the laboratory, we aimed to assess the interest in such studies by persons with genital herpes and the willingness to assume risks associated with experimental therapy. We constructed an anonymous online questionnaire that was posted on websites that provide information regarding genital herpes. The questions collected demographic and clinical information on adults who self-reported as having genital herpes, and assessed attitudes toward and willingness to participate in HSV cure clinical research. Seven hundred eleven participants provided sufficient responses to be included in the analysis. Sixty-six percent were women; the median age was 37 years, and the median time since genital HSV diagnosis was 4.7 years. The willingness to participate in trials increased from 59.0% in phase 1 to 68.5% in phase 2, and 81.2% in phase 3 trials, and 40% reported willingness to participate even in the absence of immediate, personal benefits. The most desirable outcome was the elimination of risk for transmission to sex partner or neonate. The mean perceived severity of receiving a diagnosis of genital HSV-2 was 4.2 on a scale of 1 to 5. Despite suppressive therapy available, persons with genital herpes are interested in participating in clinical research aimed at curing HSV, especially in more advanced stages of development.

  3. Ionising radiation risk disclosure: When should radiographers assume a duty to inform?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, C W E; Douglas, C; Warren-Forward, H

    2018-05-01

    Autonomy is a fundamental patient right for ethical practice, and informed consent is the mechanism by which health care professionals ensure this right has been respected. The ethical notion of informed consent has evolved alongside legal developments. Under Australian law, a provider who fails to disclose risk may be found to be in breach of a duty of disclosure, potentially facing legal consequences if the patient experiences harm that is attributable to an undisclosed risk. These consequences may include the common law tort of negligence. Ionising radiation, in the form of a medical imaging examination, has the potential to cause harm. However, stochastic effects cannot be attributable to a specific ionising radiation event. What then is the role of the Australian medical imaging service provider in disclosing ionising radiation risk? The ethical and legal principles of informed consent, and the duty of information provision to the patient are investigated. These general principles are then applied to the specific and unusual case of ionising radiation, and what responsibilities apply to the medical imaging provider. Finally, the legal, professional and ethical duties of the radiographer to disclose information to their patients are investigated. Australian law is unclear as to whether a radiographer has a common law responsibility to disclose radiation risk. There is ambiguity as to whether stochastic ionising radiation risk could be considered a legal disclosure responsibility. While it is unlikely that not disclosing risk will have medicolegal consequences, doing so represents sound ethical practice. Copyright © 2017 The College of Radiographers. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The Littoral Combat Ship: Is the US Navy Assuming Too Much Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-16

    whereas the General Dynamics design will focus on an all- aluminum trimaran hull. Additional study of the pros and cons based on these two designs and......also important to understand that not all risk is bad. The SWOT analysis, which looks at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats

  5. Risk assessment for truck-transport assuming different concepts of the back-end of the fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tully, A.; Sonnenschein, R.; Haeusler, S.

    1983-01-01

    The different concepts of the back-end of the fuel cycle existing in the Federal Republic of Germany require that various types of radioactive materials will be transported along different pathways, for various distances and at different frequencies, thus resulting in different risks to the public. In one part of the second phase of the R + D program Projekt Sicherheitsstudien Entsorgung (PSE), the risk during normal and accident conditions will be assessed for each of the concepts of the back-end of the fuel cycle. Within this part of the safety analysis, DORNIER SYSTEM will determine the risks resulting from the transport of radioactive materials by truck, using the probabilistic method of fault tree analysis. This part of the investigation will extend until the end of 1983. 4 references, 5 tables

  6. Monitoring Assumptions in Assume-Guarantee Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Sokolsky

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Pre-deployment verification of software components with respect to behavioral specifications in the assume-guarantee form does not, in general, guarantee absence of errors at run time. This is because assumptions about the environment cannot be discharged until the environment is fixed. An intuitive approach is to complement pre-deployment verification of guarantees, up to the assumptions, with post-deployment monitoring of environment behavior to check that the assumptions are satisfied at run time. Such a monitor is typically implemented by instrumenting the application code of the component. An additional challenge for the monitoring step is that environment behaviors are typically obtained through an I/O library, which may alter the component's view of the input format. This transformation requires us to introduce a second pre-deployment verification step to ensure that alarms raised by the monitor would indeed correspond to violations of the environment assumptions. In this paper, we describe an approach for constructing monitors and verifying them against the component assumption. We also discuss limitations of instrumentation-based monitoring and potential ways to overcome it.

  7. Analysis of the service of volleyball in female juvenile category in terms of level risk assumed and his efficacy Análisis del saque de voleibol en categoría juvenil femenina en función del nivel de riesgo asumido y su eficacia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Valladares

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available

    The service, one of the more important actions in volleyball has been conditioned by the experienced evolution by this sport over the past decades, what has brought important changes in the execution of the technique of the service just as in the tactical systems used by the teams. According to an observational model, a methodological proposal developed in five phases has ensued for analysis and assessment of the level of risk that they assume them players of volleyball in juvenile category in the service regarding the obtained efficacy. In that one methodology has been identified and established the variables that affect it, stops at a later time quantifying and examining the level of risk in terms of the kind of service and of the trajectory described all by himself. The obtained data (2.237 cases were examined statistically to come to an end that this category does not appraise a command and control itself enough as if to evidence a tactical obvious intentionality that players would assume a voluntary risk level and once the situation was adapted of the match.
    KEY WORDS: volleyball, service, risk level, efficacy.

     

    La evolución experimentada por el voleibol a lo largo de las últimas décadas ha condicionado en gran medida una de las acciones de juego más importantes, el servicio, lo que ha traído consigo notables cambios en la ejecución técnica del saque, así como en los sistemas tácticos empleados por los equipos. Atendiendo a un modelo observacional, se ha seguido una propuesta metodológica desarrollada en cinco fases para el análisis y valoración del nivel de riesgo que asumen las jugadoras de voleibol en categoría juvenil en el servicio con respecto a la eficacia obtenida. En dicha metodología se han identificado y establecido las variables que lo afectan, para posteriormente cuantificar y

  8. How Afghanistan Can Assume Ownership for the Ongoing Conflict

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horn, Sr, John M

    2008-01-01

    In view of United States global commitments and larger Global War on Terror (GWOT) strategy, the ultimate security goal in Afghanistan must be for the Afghans to assume ownership of the counterinsurgency struggle...

  9. Assume-Guarantee Abstraction Refinement Meets Hybrid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogomolov, Sergiy; Frehse, Goran; Greitschus, Marius; Grosu, Radu; Pasareanu, Corina S.; Podelski, Andreas; Strump, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Compositional verification techniques in the assume- guarantee style have been successfully applied to transition systems to efficiently reduce the search space by leveraging the compositional nature of the systems under consideration. We adapt these techniques to the domain of hybrid systems with affine dynamics. To build assumptions we introduce an abstraction based on location merging. We integrate the assume-guarantee style analysis with automatic abstraction refinement. We have implemented our approach in the symbolic hybrid model checker SpaceEx. The evaluation shows its practical potential. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining assume-guarantee reasoning with automatic abstraction-refinement in the context of hybrid automata.

  10. Modeling turbulent/chemistry interactions using assumed pdf methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffney, R. L, Jr.; White, J. A.; Girimaji, S. S.; Drummond, J. P.

    1992-01-01

    Two assumed probability density functions (pdfs) are employed for computing the effect of temperature fluctuations on chemical reaction. The pdfs assumed for this purpose are the Gaussian and the beta densities of the first kind. The pdfs are first used in a parametric study to determine the influence of temperature fluctuations on the mean reaction-rate coefficients. Results indicate that temperature fluctuations significantly affect the magnitude of the mean reaction-rate coefficients of some reactions depending on the mean temperature and the intensity of the fluctuations. The pdfs are then tested on a high-speed turbulent reacting mixing layer. Results clearly show a decrease in the ignition delay time due to increases in the magnitude of most of the mean reaction rate coefficients.

  11. Assumed Probability Density Functions for Shallow and Deep Convection

    OpenAIRE

    Steven K Krueger; Peter A Bogenschutz; Marat Khairoutdinov

    2010-01-01

    The assumed joint probability density function (PDF) between vertical velocity and conserved temperature and total water scalars has been suggested to be a relatively computationally inexpensive and unified subgrid-scale (SGS) parameterization for boundary layer clouds and turbulent moments. This paper analyzes the performance of five families of PDFs using large-eddy simulations of deep convection, shallow convection, and a transition from stratocumulus to trade wind cumulus. Three of the PD...

  12. Assumed genetic effects of low level irradiation on man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutrillaux, B.

    1976-01-01

    The significance of human genetic pathology is stated and a study is made of the assumed effect of low level ionizing radiations. The theoretical notions thus derived are compared to experimental data which are poor. A quick survey of the literature shows that is has not yet been possible to establish a direct relationship between an increase of exposure and any genetic effect on man. However, this must not lead to conclude on the innoxiousness of radiation but rather shows how such analyses are difficult in as much as the effect investigated is necessarily low [fr

  13. Asynchronous variational integration using continuous assumed gradient elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Sebastian; Bucher, Christian

    2013-03-01

    Asynchronous variational integration (AVI) is a tool which improves the numerical efficiency of explicit time stepping schemes when applied to finite element meshes with local spatial refinement. This is achieved by associating an individual time step length to each spatial domain. Furthermore, long-term stability is ensured by its variational structure. This article presents AVI in the context of finite elements based on a weakened weak form (W2) Liu (2009) [1], exemplified by continuous assumed gradient elements Wolff and Bucher (2011) [2]. The article presents the main ideas of the modified AVI, gives implementation notes and a recipe for estimating the critical time step.

  14. Assumed Probability Density Functions for Shallow and Deep Convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven K Krueger

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The assumed joint probability density function (PDF between vertical velocity and conserved temperature and total water scalars has been suggested to be a relatively computationally inexpensive and unified subgrid-scale (SGS parameterization for boundary layer clouds and turbulent moments. This paper analyzes the performance of five families of PDFs using large-eddy simulations of deep convection, shallow convection, and a transition from stratocumulus to trade wind cumulus. Three of the PDF families are based on the double Gaussian form and the remaining two are the single Gaussian and a Double Delta Function (analogous to a mass flux model. The assumed PDF method is tested for grid sizes as small as 0.4 km to as large as 204.8 km. In addition, studies are performed for PDF sensitivity to errors in the input moments and for how well the PDFs diagnose some higher-order moments. In general, the double Gaussian PDFs more accurately represent SGS cloud structure and turbulence moments in the boundary layer compared to the single Gaussian and Double Delta Function PDFs for the range of grid sizes tested. This is especially true for small SGS cloud fractions. While the most complex PDF, Lewellen-Yoh, better represents shallow convective cloud properties (cloud fraction and liquid water mixing ratio compared to the less complex Analytic Double Gaussian 1 PDF, there appears to be no advantage in implementing Lewellen-Yoh for deep convection. However, the Analytic Double Gaussian 1 PDF better represents the liquid water flux, is less sensitive to errors in the input moments, and diagnoses higher order moments more accurately. Between the Lewellen-Yoh and Analytic Double Gaussian 1 PDFs, it appears that neither family is distinctly better at representing cloudy layers. However, due to the reduced computational cost and fairly robust results, it appears that the Analytic Double Gaussian 1 PDF could be an ideal family for SGS cloud and turbulence

  15. Inference of directional selection and mutation parameters assuming equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogl, Claus; Bergman, Juraj

    2015-12-01

    In a classical study, Wright (1931) proposed a model for the evolution of a biallelic locus under the influence of mutation, directional selection and drift. He derived the equilibrium distribution of the allelic proportion conditional on the scaled mutation rate, the mutation bias and the scaled strength of directional selection. The equilibrium distribution can be used for inference of these parameters with genome-wide datasets of "site frequency spectra" (SFS). Assuming that the scaled mutation rate is low, Wright's model can be approximated by a boundary-mutation model, where mutations are introduced into the population exclusively from sites fixed for the preferred or unpreferred allelic states. With the boundary-mutation model, inference can be partitioned: (i) the shape of the SFS distribution within the polymorphic region is determined by random drift and directional selection, but not by the mutation parameters, such that inference of the selection parameter relies exclusively on the polymorphic sites in the SFS; (ii) the mutation parameters can be inferred from the amount of polymorphic and monomorphic preferred and unpreferred alleles, conditional on the selection parameter. Herein, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the mutation and selection parameters in equilibrium and apply the method to simulated SFS data as well as empirical data from a Madagascar population of Drosophila simulans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. [Care-Dependency in Parkinson's Disease: More Frequent than Assumed?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, O

    2015-06-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) increases the risk of care-dependency (CDP). While motor functions worsen continuously, the assignment of patients to CDP occurs categorically. It is unknown how many patients are already sufficiently severely impaired to be categorised as CDP yet do not have an officially acknowledged level of CDP. A random sample of 1,449 PD outpatients was clinically characterised by office-based neurologists, including impairments of activities of daily living (ADL with the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating scale (UPDRS subscale II) as well as regarding the presence of dementia according to DSM-IV criteria and the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE). Depression was screened for with the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). For each patient the officially acknowledged level of CDP was documented; for patients without official CDP level, the clinician appraised whether the patient was care-dependent anyhow. 266 patients (18.3%) were officially acknowledged as care-dependent, while n=121 patients (8.5%) were not, yet were appraised to be care-dependent according to the clinician. Compared to non-CDP patients, they differed on every measure considered. Compared to patients with an official CDP, their PD duration was significantly shorter (6.0 vs. 8.0 years, p<0.01) and they were less severely impaired in ADL (13.3 vs. 15.5, p<0.01). They did not differ regarding the rates of dementia (52.9 vs. 44.9%, p=0.203) or depression according to the MADRS (13.1 vs. 13.1, p=0.989). ADL impairments are the most important predictor for CDP while dementia and depression are not considered despite the impairments that are additionally caused by them. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  17. Premature Extinction of the Weather Observer: How Much Risk is the Air Force Assuming

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    sensors emit light which is scattered when it impacts airborne meteors . A separate collec- tion function of the sensor correlates the amount of...in-flight planning for a home base or al- ternate recovery. Mid-term impacts of surface weather observations on operations fall more in the realm of

  18. 49 CFR 568.7 - Requirements for manufacturers who assume legal responsibility for a vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... MANUFACTURED IN TWO OR MORE STAGES § 568.7 Requirements for manufacturers who assume legal responsibility for a vehicle. (a) If an incomplete vehicle manufacturer assumes legal responsibility for all duties and... 49 CFR 567.5(f). (b) If an intermediate manufacturer of a vehicle assumes legal responsibility for...

  19. Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

    2016-05-24

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

  20. Examination of some assumed severe reactor accidents at the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pekkarinen, E.; Rossi, J.

    1989-02-01

    Knowledge and analysis methods of severe accidents at nuclear power plants and of subsequent response of primary system and containment have been developed in last few years to the extent that realistic source tems of the specified accident sequences can be calculated for the Finnish nuclear power plants. The objective of this investigation was to calculate the source terms of off-site consequences brought about by some selected severe accident sequences initiated by the total loss of on-site and off-site AC power at the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. The results describing the estimated off-site health risks are expressed as conditional assuming that the accident has taken place, because the probabilities of the occurence of the accident sequences considered have not been analysed in this study. The range and probabilities of occurence of health detriments are considered by calculating consequences in different weeather conditions and taking into account the annual frequency of each weather condition and statistical population distribution. The calculational results indicate that the reactor building provides and additional holdup and deposition of radioactive substance (except coble gases) released from the containment. Furthermore, the release fractions of the core inventory to the environment of volatile fission products such as iodine, cesium and tellurium remain under 0.03. No early health effects are predicted for the surrounding population in case the assumed short-tem countermeasures are performed effectively. Acute health effects are extremely improbable even without any active countermeasure. By reducing the long-term exposure from contaminated agricultural products, the collective dose from natural long-term background radiation, for instance in the sector of 30 degrees towards the southern Finland up to the distance of 300 kilometers, would be expected to increase with 2-20 percent depending on the release considered

  1. 24 CFR 1000.20 - Is an Indian tribe required to assume environmental review responsibilities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Is an Indian tribe required to assume environmental review responsibilities? 1000.20 Section 1000.20 Housing and Urban Development... § 1000.20 Is an Indian tribe required to assume environmental review responsibilities? (a) No. It is an...

  2. 39 CFR 3060.40 - Calculation of the assumed Federal income tax.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Federal income tax. (a) The assumed Federal income tax on competitive products income shall be based on the Postal Service theoretical competitive products enterprise income statement for the relevant year... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Calculation of the assumed Federal income tax...

  3. Prospects for carbon capture and sequestration technologies assuming their technological learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riahi, Keywan; Rubin, Edward S.; Schrattenholzer, Leo

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes potentials of carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS) in a set of long-term energy-economic-environmental scenarios based on alternative assumptions for technological progress of CCS. In order to get a reasonable guide to future technological progress in managing CO 2 emissions, we review past experience in controlling sulfur dioxide emissions (SO 2 ) from power plants. By doing so, we quantify a 'learning curve' for CCS, which describes the relationship between the improvement of costs due to accumulation of experience in CCS construction. We incorporate the learning curve into the energy modeling framework MESSAGE-MACRO and develop greenhouse gas emissions scenarios of economic, demographic, and energy demand development, where alternative policy cases lead to the stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv) by the end of the 21st century. Due to the assumed technological learning, costs of the emissions reduction for CCS drop rapidly and in parallel with the massive introduction of CCS on the global scale. Compared to scenarios based on static cost assumptions for CCS, the contribution of carbon sequestration is about 50 percent higher in the case of learning resulting in cumulative sequestration of CO 2 ranging from 150 to 250 billion (10 9 ) tons carbon during the 21st century. The results illustrate that carbon capture and sequestration is one of the obvious priority candidates for long-term technology policies and enhanced R and D efforts to hedge against the risk associated with high environmental impacts of climate change

  4. Proliferation resistance of a hypothetical sodium fast reactor under an assumed breakout scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitlock, Jeremy [Non-Proliferation and Safeguards, AECL Chalk River Laboratories, Stn. 91, Chalk River, Ontario, K0J 1J0 (Canada); Inoue, Naoko; Senzaki, Masao [Japan Atomic Energy Agency - JAEA (Japan); Bley, Dennis [Buttonwood Consulting Inc., Oakton, VA (United States); Wonder, Ed [National Nuclear Security Administration, Department of Energy (United States)

    2009-06-15

    The Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR and PP) Working Group of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) conducted a high-level pathway analysis of a hypothetical sodium fast reactor and integral fuel processing facility (called collectively the 'Example Sodium Fast Reactor' or ESFR), as a test of the effectiveness of its analysis methodology. From a common set of assumed host-state capabilities and objectives, a number of threat scenarios emerge (Concealed Diversion, Concealed Misuse, Breakout or Overt Misuse, and Theft/Sabotage). This paper presents the results of the analysis based on the Breakout scenario. A distinguishing aspect of Breakout scenario consideration concerns the optimal use of the time from breakout to weapons readiness, which is related to the Proliferation Time measure. The goal of analyzing the breakout scenario was therefore to complement other analyses involving the Concealed Misuse and Diversion scenarios by exploring the minimum post-breakout time to weapons readiness. Four target strategies were chosen for analysis: (1) Diversion of LEU feed material at front-end of the ESFR facility; (2) Misuse of the reactor facility to irradiate fertile material; (3) Misuse of the reactor facility to irradiate material in the in-core fuel storage basket; and (4) Misuse of the fuel processing facility to higher-purity TRU. The investigation identified several general 'sub-strategies' within the Breakout scenario, dependent upon the aggressiveness with which a State pursues its intent to break out (including its aversion to the risk of detection). The sub-strategy chosen by a proliferant state will affect both the time available and potential complexity for proliferation activities. The sub-strategy chosen is itself affected by political factors (foreign relations agenda of state, probability of external intervention after breakout, external dependence of proliferant state's supply chain, etc.) These factors

  5. Assuming a Pharmacy Organization Leadership Position: A Guide for Pharmacy Leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shay, Blake; Weber, Robert J

    2015-11-01

    Important and influential pharmacy organization leadership positions, such as president, board member, or committee chair, are volunteer positions and require a commitment of personal and professional time. These positions provide excellent opportunities for leadership development, personal promotion, and advancement of the profession. In deciding to assume a leadership position, interested individuals must consider the impact on their personal and professional commitments and relationships, career planning, employer support, current and future department projects, employee support, and personal readiness. This article reviews these factors and also provides an assessment tool that leaders can use to determine their readiness to assume leadership positions. By using an assessment tool, pharmacy leaders can better understand their ability to assume an important and influential leadership position while achieving job and personal goals.

  6. How Public High School Students Assume Cooperative Roles to Develop Their EFL Speaking Skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Natalie Parra Espinel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an investigation we carried out in order to identify how the specific roles that 7th grade public school students assumed when they worked cooperatively were related to their development of speaking skills in English. Data were gathered through interviews, field notes, students’ reflections and audio recordings. The findings revealed that students who were involved in cooperative activities chose and assumed roles taking into account preferences, skills and personality traits. In the same manner, when learners worked together, their roles were affected by each other and they put into practice some social strategies with the purpose of supporting their embryonic speaking development.

  7. Bowing-reactivity trends in EBR-II assuming zero-swelling ducts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneghetti, D.

    1994-01-01

    Predicted trends of duct-bowing reactivities for the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) are correlated with predicted row-wise duct deflections assuming use of idealized zero-void-swelling subassembly ducts. These assume no irradiation induced swellings of ducts but include estimates of the effects of irradiation-creep relaxation of thermally induced bowing stresses. The results illustrate the manners in which at-power creeps may affect subsequent duct deflections at zero power and thereby the trends of the bowing component of a subsequent power reactivity decrement

  8. The Ability to Assume the Upright Position in Blind and Sighted Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gipsman, Sandra Curtis

    To investigate the ability of 48 blind and partially sighted children (8 to 10 and 12 to 14 years old) to assume the upright position, Ss were given six trials in which they were requested to move themselves from a tilted starting position in a specially constructed chair to an upright position. No significant differences were found between three…

  9. A Model for Teacher Effects from Longitudinal Data without Assuming Vertical Scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariano, Louis T.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Lockwood, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    There is an increasing interest in using longitudinal measures of student achievement to estimate individual teacher effects. Current multivariate models assume each teacher has a single effect on student outcomes that persists undiminished to all future test administrations (complete persistence [CP]) or can diminish with time but remains…

  10. Sensitivity of the Speech Intelligibility Index to the Assumed Dynamic Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, In-Ki; Kates, James M.; Arehart, Kathryn H.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of the speech intelligibility index (SII) to the assumed speech dynamic range (DR) in different languages and with different types of stimuli. Method: Intelligibility prediction uses the absolute transfer function (ATF) to map the SII value to the predicted intelligibility for a given stimuli.…

  11. 13 CFR 120.1718 - SBA's right to assume Seller's responsibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false SBA's right to assume Seller's responsibilities. 120.1718 Section 120.1718 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Establishment of SBA Secondary Market Guarantee Program for First Lien Position 504 Loan Pools...

  12. A New Concept for Counter-Checking of Assumed CPM Pairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Wilfried; Nanson, John

    2017-01-01

    The inflation of “newly discovered” CPM pairs makes it necessary to develop an approach for a solid concept for counter-checking assumed CPM pairs with the target to identify false positives. Such a concept is presented in this report.

  13. Some considerations on displacement assumed finite elements with the reduced numerical integration technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, H.; Isha, H.

    1981-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the displacement-assumed-finite elements by applying the reduced numerical integration technique in structural problems. The first part is a general consideration on the technique. Its purpose is to examine a variational interpretation of the finite element displacement formulation with the reduced integration technique in structural problems. The formulation is critically studied from a standpoint of the natural stiffness approach. It is shown that these types of elements are equivalent to a certain type of displacement and stress assumed mixed elements. The rank deficiency of the stiffness matrix of these elements is interpreted as a problem in the transformation from the natural system to a Cartesian system. It will be shown that a variational basis of the equivalent mixed formulation is closely related to the Hellinger-Reissner's functional. It is presented that for simple elements, e.g. bilinear quadrilateral plane stress and plate bending there are corresponding mixed elements from the functional. For relatively complex types of these elements, it is shown that they are equivalent to localized mixed elements from the Hellinger-Reissner's functional. In the second part, typical finite elements with the reduced integration technique are studied to demonstrate this equivalence. A bilinear displacement and rotation assumed shear beam element, a bilinear displacement assumed quadrilateral plane stress element and a bilinear deflection and rotation assumed quadrilateral plate bending element are examined to present equivalent mixed elements. Not only the theoretical consideration is presented but numerical studies are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of these elements in practical analysis. (orig.)

  14. Project of computer program for designing the steel with the assumed CCT diagram

    OpenAIRE

    S. Malara; J. Trzaska; L.A. Dobrzański

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper was developing a project of computer aided method for designing the chemicalcomposition of steel with the assumed CCT diagram.Design/methodology/approach: The purpose has been achieved in four stages. At the first stage characteristicpoints of CCT diagram have been determined. At the second stage neural networks have been developed, andnext CCT diagram terms of similarity have been worked out- at the third one. In the last one steel chemicalcomposition optimizat...

  15. Compositional Synthesis of Controllers from Scenario-Based Assume-Guarantee Specifications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greenyer, Joel; Kindler, Ekkart

    2013-01-01

    Modern software-intensive systems often consist of multiple components that interact to fulfill complex functions in sometimes safety-critical situations. During the design, it is crucial to specify the system's requirements formally and to detect inconsistencies as early as possible in order to ...... present, in this paper, a novel assume-guarantee-style compositional synthesis technique for MSD specifications. We provide evaluation results underlining the benefit of our approach and formally justify its correctness....

  16. The impact of assumed knowledge entry standards on undergraduate mathematics teaching in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Deborah; Cattlin, Joann

    2015-10-01

    Over the last two decades, many Australian universities have relaxed their selection requirements for mathematics-dependent degrees, shifting from hard prerequisites to assumed knowledge standards which provide students with an indication of the prior learning that is expected. This has been regarded by some as a positive move, since students who may be returning to study, or who are changing career paths but do not have particular prerequisite study, now have more flexible pathways. However, there is mounting evidence to indicate that there are also significant negative impacts associated with assumed knowledge approaches, with large numbers of students enrolling in degrees without the stated assumed knowledge. For students, there are negative impacts on pass rates and retention rates and limitations to pathways within particular degrees. For institutions, the necessity to offer additional mathematics subjects at a lower level than normal and more support services for under-prepared students impacts on workloads and resources. In this paper, we discuss early research from the First Year in Maths project, which begins to shed light on the realities of a system that may in fact be too flexible.

  17. Jobs, sex, love and lifestyle: when nonstutterers assume the roles of stutterers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianliang; Saltuklaroglu, Tim; Hough, Monica; Kalinowski, Joseph

    2009-01-01

    This study assessed the impact of stuttering via a questionnaire in which fluent individuals were asked to assume the mindset of persons who stutter (PWS) in various life aspects, including vocation, romance, daily activities, friends/social life, family and general lifestyle. The perceived impact of stuttering through the mind's eyes of nonstutterers is supposed to reflect respondents' abilities to impart 'theory of mind' in addressing social penalties related to stuttering. Ninety-one university students answered a questionnaire containing 56 statements on a 7-point Likert scale. Forty-four participants (mean age = 20.4, SD = 4.4) were randomly selected to assume a stuttering identity and 47 respondents (mean age = 20.5, SD = 3.1) to assume their normally fluent identity. Significant differences between groups were found in more than two thirds of items regarding employment, romance, and daily activities, and in fewer than half of items regarding family, friend/social life, and general life style (p role of PWS, are capable of at least temporarily feeling the negative impact of stuttering. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Accessibility versus accuracy in retrieving spatial memory: evidence for suboptimal assumed headings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yerramsetti, Ashok; Marchette, Steven A; Shelton, Amy L

    2013-07-01

    Orientation dependence in spatial memory has often been interpreted in terms of accessibility: Object locations are encoded relative to a reference orientation that affords the most accurate access to spatial memory. An open question, however, is whether people naturally use this "preferred" orientation whenever recalling the space. We tested this question by asking participants to locate buildings on a familiar campus from various imagined locations, without specifying the heading to be assumed. We then used these pointing judgments to infer the approximate heading participants assumed at each location. Surprisingly, each location showed a unique assumed heading that was consistent across participants and seemed to reflect episodic or visual properties of the space. This result suggests that although locations are encoded relative to a reference orientation, other factors may influence how people choose to access the stored information and whether they appeal to long-term spatial memory or other more sensory-based stores. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. The cost of assuming the life history of a host: acoustic startle in the parasitoid fly Ormia ochracea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, M J; Levin, E C; Hoy, R R

    2009-12-01

    In the obligatory reproductive dependence of a parasite on its host, the parasite must trade the benefit of 'outsourcing' functions like reproduction for the risk of assuming hazards associated with the host. In the present study, we report behavioral adaptations of a parasitic fly, Ormia ochracea, that resemble those of its cricket hosts. Ormia females home in on the male cricket's songs and deposit larvae, which burrow into the cricket, feed and emerge to pupate. Because male crickets call at night, gravid female Ormia in search of hosts are subject to bat predation, in much the same way as female crickets are when responding to male song. We show that Ormia has evolved the same evasive behavior as have crickets: an acoustic startle response to bat-like ultrasound that manifests clearly only during flight. Furthermore, like crickets, Ormia has a sharp response boundary between the frequencies of song and bat cries, resembling categorical perception first described in the context of human speech.

  20. Errors resulting from assuming opaque Lambertian clouds in TOMS ozone retrieval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, X.; Newchurch, M.J.; Loughman, R.; Bhartia, P.K.

    2004-01-01

    Accurate remote sensing retrieval of atmospheric constituents over cloudy areas is very challenging because of insufficient knowledge of cloud parameters. Cloud treatments are highly idealized in most retrieval algorithms. Using a radiative transfer model treating clouds as scattering media, we investigate the effects of assuming opaque Lambertian clouds and employing a Partial Cloud Model (PCM) on Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone retrievals, especially for tropical high-reflectivity clouds. Assuming angularly independent cloud reflection is good because the Ozone Retrieval Errors (OREs) are within 1.5% of the total ozone (i.e., within TOMS retrieval precision) when Cloud Optical Depth (COD)≥20. Because of Intra-Cloud Ozone Absorption ENhancement (ICOAEN), assuming opaque clouds can introduce large OREs even for optically thick clouds. For a water cloud of COD 40 spanning 2-12 km with 20.8 Dobson Unit (DU) ozone homogeneously distributed in the cloud, the ORE is 17.8 DU in the nadir view. The ICOAEN effect depends greatly on solar zenith angle, view zenith angle, and intra-cloud ozone amount and distribution. The TOMS PCM is good because negative errors from the cloud fraction being underestimated partly cancel other positive errors. At COD≤5, the TOMS algorithm retrieves approximately the correct total ozone because of compensating errors. With increasing COD up to 20-40, the overall positive ORE increases and is finally dominated by the ICOAEN effect. The ICOAEN effect is typically 5-13 DU on average over the Atlantic and Africa and 1-7 DU over the Pacific for tropical high-altitude (cloud top pressure ≤300 hPa) and high-reflectivity (reflectivity ≥ 80%) clouds. Knowledge of TOMS ozone retrieval errors has important implications for remote sensing of ozone/trace gases from other satellite instruments

  1. Children's Everyday Learning by Assuming Responsibility for Others: Indigenous Practices as a Cultural Heritage Across Generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, David Lorente

    2015-01-01

    This chapter uses a comparative approach to examine the maintenance of Indigenous practices related with Learning by Observing and Pitching In in two generations--parent generation and current child generation--in a Central Mexican Nahua community. In spite of cultural changes and the increase of Western schooling experience, these practices persist, to different degrees, as a Nahua cultural heritage with close historical relations to the key value of cuidado (stewardship). The chapter explores how children learn the value of cuidado in a variety of everyday activities, which include assuming responsibility in many social situations, primarily in cultivating corn, raising and protecting domestic animals, health practices, and participating in family ceremonial life. The chapter focuses on three main points: (1) Cuidado (assuming responsibility for), in the Nahua socio-cultural context, refers to the concepts of protection and "raising" as well as fostering other beings, whether humans, plants, or animals, to reach their potential and fulfill their development. (2) Children learn cuidado by contributing to family endeavors: They develop attention and self-motivation; they are capable of responsible actions; and they are able to transform participation to achieve the status of a competent member of local society. (3) This collaborative participation allows children to continue the cultural tradition and to preserve a Nahua heritage at a deeper level in a community in which Nahuatl language and dress have disappeared, and people do not identify themselves as Indigenous. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Collisional tearing in a field-reversed sheet pinch assuming nonparallel propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quest, K.B.; Coroniti, F.V.

    1985-01-01

    We examine the linear stability properties of the collisional tearing mode in a reversed-field sheet pinch assuming that the wave vector is not parallel to B, where B is the equilibrium magnetic field. We show that pressure balance in the direction of the equilibrium current requires a nonzero perturbed current component deltaJ/sub z/ that is driven toward tyhe center of the pinch. At the center of the pinch, deltaJ/sub z/ goes to zero, and momentum is balanced by coupling to the ion-acoustic mode. In order to achieve current closure, a large perturbed field-aligned current is generated that is strongly localized about the dissipative tearing layer. The relation of this work to the collisionless case is discussed

  3. Elastic-plastic and creep analyses by assumed stress finite elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pian, T.H.H.; Spilker, R.L.; Lee, S.W.

    1975-01-01

    A formulation is presented of incremental finite element solutions for both initial stress and initial strain problems based on modified complementary energy principle with relaxed inter-element continuity requirement. The corresponding finite element model is the assumed stress hybrid model which has stress parameters in the interior of each element and displacements at the individual nodes as unknowns. The formulation includes an important consideration that the states of stress and strain and the beginning of each increment may not satisfy the equilibrium and compatibility equations. These imbalance and mismatch conditions all lead to correction terms for the equivalent nodal forces of the matrix equations. The initial stress method is applied to elastic-plastic analysis of structures. In this case the stress parameters for the individual elements can be eliminated resulting to a system of equations with only nodal displacements as unknowns. Two different complementary energy principles can be formulated, in one of which the equilibrium of the final state of stress is maintained while in the other the equilibrium of the stress increments is maintained. Each of these two different formulations can be combined with different iterative schemes to be used at each incremental steps of the elastic-plastic analysis. It is also indicated clearly that for the initial stress method the state of stress at the beginning of each increments is in general, not in equilibrium and an imbalance correction is needed. Results of a comprehensive evaluation of various solution procedures by the initial stress method using the assumed stress hybrid elements are presented. The example used is the static response of a thick wall cylinder of elastic-perfectly plastic material under internal pressure. Solid of revolution elements with rectangular cross sections are used

  4. Effect of heterogeneity and assumed mode of inheritance on lod scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, M; Greenberg, D A

    1992-02-01

    Heterogeneity is a major factor in many common, complex diseases and can confound linkage analysis. Using computer-simulated heterogeneous data we tested what effect unlinked families have on a linkage analysis when heterogeneity is not taken into account. We created 60 data sets of 40 nuclear families each with different proportions of linked and unlinked families and with different modes of inheritance. The ascertainment probability was 0.05, the disease had a penetrance of 0.6, and the recombination fraction for the linked families was zero. For the analysis we used a variety of assumed modes of inheritance and penetrances. Under these conditions we looked at the effect of the unlinked families on the lod score, the evaluation of the mode of inheritance, and the estimate of penetrance and of the recombination fraction in the linked families. 1. When the analysis was done under the correct mode of inheritance for the linked families, we found that the mode of inheritance of the unlinked families had minimal influence on the highest maximum lod score (MMLS) (i.e., we maximized the maximum lod score with respect to penetrance). Adding sporadic families decreased the MMLS less than adding recessive or dominant unlinked families. 2. The mixtures of dominant linked families with unlinked families always led to a higher MMLS when analyzed under the correct (dominant) mode of inheritance than when analyzed under the incorrect mode of inheritance. In the mixtures with recessive linked families, assuming the correct mode of inheritance generally led to a higher MMLS, but we observed broad variation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  5. High mortality risk among individuals assumed to be TB-negative can be predicted using a simple test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rabna, Paulo; Andersen, Andreas; Wejse, Christian

    2009-01-01

    1007 aTBneg individuals who were enrolled from 2004 to 2006; 4983 age-matched controls were followed for comparison. Plasma suPAR levels were measured using the suPARnostic ELISA. Survival was analysed using Cox regression, ROC curves and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: After 3 months of follow......-up, mortality was 21 per 100 person-year-observation (PYO) among aTBneg individuals and three per 100 PYO among the control population [mortality rate ratio (MRR) = 6.92 (95% CI 4.48-10.7)]. SuPAR values ranged between 0.9 and 45 ng/ml in aTBneg individuals. A log-linear relationship was found between su......PAR levels linear range, a 1 ng/ml increase was associated with a 46% increase in the mortality rate: MRR = 1.46 (95% CI 1.34-1.59). The area under the ROC curves was 0.88 for HIV-positive individuals and 0.79 for HIV-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed...

  6. Wetware, Hardware, or Software Incapacitation: Observational Methods to Determine When Autonomy Should Assume Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.

    2014-01-01

    Control-theoretic modeling of human operator's dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long, rich history. There has been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. This research attempts to go beyond pilot identification based on experimental data to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. Two methods for pre-dicting pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and deducing changes in pilot behavior are presented This approach may also have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot. With this ability to detect changes in piloting behavior, the possibility now exists to mediate human adverse behaviors, hardware failures, and software anomalies with autono-my that may ameliorate these undesirable effects. However, appropriate timing of when au-tonomy should assume control is dependent on criticality of actions to safety, sensitivity of methods to accurately detect these adverse changes, and effects of changes in levels of auto-mation of the system as a whole.

  7. From the Kochen-Specker theorem to noncontextuality inequalities without assuming determinism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunjwal, Ravi; Spekkens, Robert W

    2015-09-11

    The Kochen-Specker theorem demonstrates that it is not possible to reproduce the predictions of quantum theory in terms of a hidden variable model where the hidden variables assign a value to every projector deterministically and noncontextually. A noncontextual value assignment to a projector is one that does not depend on which other projectors-the context-are measured together with it. Using a generalization of the notion of noncontextuality that applies to both measurements and preparations, we propose a scheme for deriving inequalities that test whether a given set of experimental statistics is consistent with a noncontextual model. Unlike previous inequalities inspired by the Kochen-Specker theorem, we do not assume that the value assignments are deterministic and therefore in the face of a violation of our inequality, the possibility of salvaging noncontextuality by abandoning determinism is no longer an option. Our approach is operational in the sense that it does not presume quantum theory: a violation of our inequality implies the impossibility of a noncontextual model for any operational theory that can account for the experimental observations, including any successor to quantum theory.

  8. Relationships between protein-encoding gene abundance and corresponding process are commonly assumed yet rarely observed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocca, Jennifer D.; Hall, Edward K.; Lennon, Jay T.; Evans, Sarah E.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Cotner, James B.; Nemergut, Diana R.; Graham, Emily B.; Wallenstein, Matthew D.

    2015-01-01

    For any enzyme-catalyzed reaction to occur, the corresponding protein-encoding genes and transcripts are necessary prerequisites. Thus, a positive relationship between the abundance of gene or transcripts and corresponding process rates is often assumed. To test this assumption, we conducted a meta-analysis of the relationships between gene and/or transcript abundances and corresponding process rates. We identified 415 studies that quantified the abundance of genes or transcripts for enzymes involved in carbon or nitrogen cycling. However, in only 59 of these manuscripts did the authors report both gene or transcript abundance and rates of the appropriate process. We found that within studies there was a significant but weak positive relationship between gene abundance and the corresponding process. Correlations were not strengthened by accounting for habitat type, differences among genes or reaction products versus reactants, suggesting that other ecological and methodological factors may affect the strength of this relationship. Our findings highlight the need for fundamental research on the factors that control transcription, translation and enzyme function in natural systems to better link genomic and transcriptomic data to ecosystem processes.

  9. Automated Assume-Guarantee Reasoning for Omega-Regular Systems and Specifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaki, Sagar; Gurfinkel, Arie

    2010-01-01

    We develop a learning-based automated Assume-Guarantee (AG) reasoning framework for verifying omega-regular properties of concurrent systems. We study the applicability of non-circular (AGNC) and circular (AG-C) AG proof rules in the context of systems with infinite behaviors. In particular, we show that AG-NC is incomplete when assumptions are restricted to strictly infinite behaviors, while AG-C remains complete. We present a general formalization, called LAG, of the learning based automated AG paradigm. We show how existing approaches for automated AG reasoning are special instances of LAG.We develop two learning algorithms for a class of systems, called infinite regular systems, that combine finite and infinite behaviors. We show that for infinity-regular systems, both AG-NC and AG-C are sound and complete. Finally, we show how to instantiate LAG to do automated AG reasoning for infinite regular, and omega-regular, systems using both AG-NC and AG-C as proof rules

  10. Is the Perception of 3D Shape from Shading Based on Assumed Reflectance and Illumination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James T. Todd

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The research described in the present article was designed to compare three types of image shading: one generated with a Lambertian BRDF and homogeneous illumination such that image intensity was determined entirely by local surface orientation irrespective of position; one that was textured with a linear intensity gradient, such that image intensity was determined entirely by local surface position irrespective of orientation; and another that was generated with a Lambertian BRDF and inhomogeneous illumination such that image intensity was influenced by both position and orientation. A gauge figure adjustment task was used to measure observers' perceptions of local surface orientation on the depicted surfaces, and the probe points included 60 pairs of regions that both had the same orientation. The results show clearly that observers' perceptions of these three types of stimuli were remarkably similar, and that probe regions with similar apparent orientations could have large differences in image intensity. This latter finding is incompatible with any process for computing shape from shading that assumes any plausible reflectance function combined with any possible homogeneous illumination.

  11. Defining modeling parameters for juniper trees assuming pleistocene-like conditions at the NTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarbox, S.R.; Cochran, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper addresses part of Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) efforts to assess the long-term performance of the Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility located on the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Of issue is whether the GCD site complies with 40 CFR 191 standards set for transuranic (TRU) waste burial. SNL has developed a radionuclide transport model which can be used to assess TRU radionuclide movement away from the GCD facility. An earlier iteration of the model found that radionuclide uptake and release by plants is an important aspect of the system to consider. Currently, the shallow-rooted plants at the NTS do not pose a threat to the integrity of the GCD facility. However, the threat increases substantially it deeper-rooted woodland species migrate to the GCD facility, given a shift to a wetter climate. The model parameters discussed here will be included in the next model iteration which assumes a climate shift will provide for the growth of juniper trees at the GCD facility. Model parameters were developed using published data and wherever possible, data were taken from juniper and pinon-juniper studies that mirrored as many aspects of the GCD facility as possible

  12. Engineering evaluation of alternatives: Managing the assumed leak from single-shell Tank 241-T-101

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brevick, C.H.; Jenkins, C.

    1996-02-01

    At mid-year 1992, the liquid level gage for Tank 241-T-101 indicated that 6,000 to 9,000 gal had leaked. Because of the liquid level anomaly, Tank 241-T-101 was declared an assumed leaker on October 4, 1992. SSTs liquid level gages have been historically unreliable. False readings can occur because of instrument failures, floating salt cake, and salt encrustation. Gages frequently self-correct and tanks show no indication of leak. Tank levels cannot be visually inspected and verified because of high radiation fields. The gage in Tank 241-T-101 has largely corrected itself since the mid-year 1992 reading. Therefore, doubt exists that a leak has occurred, or that the magnitude of the leak poses any immediate environmental threat. While reluctance exists to use valuable DST space unnecessarily, there is a large safety and economic incentive to prevent or mitigate release of tank liquid waste into the surrounding environment. During the assessment of the significance of the Tank 241-T-101 liquid level gage readings, Washington State Department of Ecology determined that Westinghouse Hanford Company was not in compliance with regulatory requirements, and directed transfer of the Tank 241-T-101 liquid contents into a DST. Meanwhile, DOE directed WHC to examine reasonable alternatives/options for safe interim management of Tank 241-T-101 wastes before taking action. The five alternatives that could be used to manage waste from a leaking SST are: (1) No-Action, (2) In-Tank Stabilization, (3) External Tank Stabilization, (4) Liquid Retrieval, and (5) Total Retrieval. The findings of these examinations are reported in this study

  13. 24 CFR 1000.24 - If an Indian tribe assumes environmental review responsibility, how will HUD assist the Indian...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...? 1000.24 Section 1000.24 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban... URBAN DEVELOPMENT NATIVE AMERICAN HOUSING ACTIVITIES General § 1000.24 If an Indian tribe assumes...

  14. Inversion assuming weak scattering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xenaki, Angeliki; Gerstoft, Peter; Mosegaard, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    due to the complex nature of the field. A method based on linear inversion is employed to infer information about the statistical properties of the scattering field from the obtained cross-spectral matrix. A synthetic example based on an active high-frequency sonar demonstrates that the proposed...

  15. A Method for The Assessing of Reliability Characteristics Relevant to an Assumed Position-Fixing Accuracy in Navigational Positioning Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Specht Cezary

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method which makes it possible to determine reliability characteristics of navigational positioning systems, relevant to an assumed value of permissible error in position fixing. The method allows to calculate: availability , reliability as well as operation continuity of position fixing system for an assumed, determined on the basis of formal requirements - both worldwide and national, position-fixing accuracy. The proposed mathematical model allows to satisfy, by any navigational positioning system, not only requirements as to position-fixing accuracy of a given navigational application (for air , sea or land traffic but also the remaining characteristics associated with technical serviceability of a system.

  16. 42 CFR 137.291 - May Self-Governance Tribes carry out construction projects without assuming these Federal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false May Self-Governance Tribes carry out construction... OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES TRIBAL SELF-GOVERNANCE Construction Nepa Process § 137.291 May Self-Governance Tribes carry out construction projects without assuming these Federal environmental...

  17. 42 CFR 137.286 - Do Self-Governance Tribes become Federal agencies when they assume these Federal environmental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Do Self-Governance Tribes become Federal agencies... HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES TRIBAL SELF-GOVERNANCE Construction Nepa Process § 137.286 Do Self-Governance... Self-Governance Tribes are required to assume Federal environmental responsibilities for projects in...

  18. Beyond an Assumed Mother-Child Symbiosis in Nutritional Guidelines: The Everyday Reasoning behind Complementary Feeding Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Annemette; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Holm, Lotte

    2014-01-01

    Researchers question the implications of the way in which "motherhood" is constructed in public health discourse. Current nutritional guidelines for Danish parents of young children are part of this discourse. They are shaped by an assumed symbiotic relationship between the nutritional needs of the child and the interest and focus of the…

  19. Polymorphisms in VEGF-A are associated with COPD risk in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Both rs3025030 and rs3025033 are located on chromosome 6 in VEGF-A. We found one risk allele 'C' from rs3025030 and another 'G' from rs3025033 using the log-additive model (OR 1.40; 95% CI1.05–5.96; P = 0.022), (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.03–1.84; P = 0.03). We also found another risk allele 'A' of rs9296092 in ...

  20. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  1. Some consequences of assuming simple patterns for the treatment effect over time in a linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamia, Christina; White, Ian R; Kenward, Michael G

    2013-07-10

    Linear mixed models are often used for the analysis of data from clinical trials with repeated quantitative outcomes. This paper considers linear mixed models where a particular form is assumed for the treatment effect, in particular constant over time or proportional to time. For simplicity, we assume no baseline covariates and complete post-baseline measures, and we model arbitrary mean responses for the control group at each time. For the variance-covariance matrix, we consider an unstructured model, a random intercepts model and a random intercepts and slopes model. We show that the treatment effect estimator can be expressed as a weighted average of the observed time-specific treatment effects, with weights depending on the covariance structure and the magnitude of the estimated variance components. For an assumed constant treatment effect, under the random intercepts model, all weights are equal, but in the random intercepts and slopes and the unstructured models, we show that some weights can be negative: thus, the estimated treatment effect can be negative, even if all time-specific treatment effects are positive. Our results suggest that particular models for the treatment effect combined with particular covariance structures may result in estimated treatment effects of unexpected magnitude and/or direction. Methods are illustrated using a Parkinson's disease trial. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  3. Reasons People Surrender Unowned and Owned Cats to Australian Animal Shelters and Barriers to Assuming Ownership of Unowned Cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zito, Sarah; Morton, John; Vankan, Dianne; Paterson, Mandy; Bennett, Pauleen C; Rand, Jacquie; Phillips, Clive J C

    2016-01-01

    Most cats surrendered to nonhuman animal shelters are identified as unowned, and the surrender reason for these cats is usually simply recorded as "stray." A cross-sectional study was conducted with people surrendering cats to 4 Australian animal shelters. Surrenderers of unowned cats commonly gave surrender reasons relating to concern for the cat and his/her welfare. Seventeen percent of noncaregivers had considered adopting the cat. Barriers to assuming ownership most commonly related to responsible ownership concerns. Unwanted kittens commonly contributed to the decision to surrender for both caregivers and noncaregivers. Nonowners gave more surrender reasons than owners, although many owners also gave multiple surrender reasons. These findings highlight the multifactorial nature of the decision-making process leading to surrender and demonstrate that recording only one reason for surrender does not capture the complexity of the surrender decision. Collecting information about multiple reasons for surrender, particularly reasons for surrender of unowned cats and barriers to assuming ownership, could help to develop strategies to reduce the number of cats surrendered.

  4. Assuming measurement invariance of background indicators in international comparative educational achievement studies: a challenge for the interpretation of achievement differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike Wendt

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale cross-national studies designed to measure student achievement use different social, cultural, economic and other background variables to explain observed differences in that achievement. Prior to their inclusion into a prediction model, these variables are commonly scaled into latent background indices. To allow cross-national comparisons of the latent indices, measurement invariance is assumed. However, it is unclear whether the assumption of measurement invariance has some influence on the results of the prediction model, thus challenging the reliability and validity of cross-national comparisons of predicted results. Methods To establish the effect size attributed to different degrees of measurement invariance, we rescaled the ‘home resource for learning index’ (HRL for the 37 countries ( $$n=166,709$$ n = 166 , 709 students that participated in the IEA’s combined ‘Progress in International Reading Literacy Study’ (PIRLS and ‘Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study’ (TIMSS assessments of 2011. We used (a two different measurement models [one-parameter model (1PL and two-parameter model (2PL] with (b two different degrees of measurement invariance, resulting in four different models. We introduced the different HRL indices as predictors in a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM with mathematics achievement as the dependent variable. We then compared three outcomes across countries and by scaling model: (1 the differing fit-values of the measurement models, (2 the estimated discrimination parameters, and (3 the estimated regression coefficients. Results The least restrictive measurement model fitted the data best, and the degree of assumed measurement invariance of the HRL indices influenced the random effects of the GLMM in all but one country. For one-third of the countries, the fixed effects of the GLMM also related to the degree of assumed measurement invariance. Conclusion The

  5. THOR: A New Higher-Order Closure Assumed PDF Subgrid-Scale Parameterization; Evaluation and Application to Low Cloud Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firl, G. J.; Randall, D. A.

    2013-12-01

    The so-called "assumed probability density function (PDF)" approach to subgrid-scale (SGS) parameterization has shown to be a promising method for more accurately representing boundary layer cloudiness under a wide range of conditions. A new parameterization has been developed, named the Two-and-a-Half ORder closure (THOR), that combines this approach with a higher-order turbulence closure. THOR predicts the time evolution of the turbulence kinetic energy components, the variance of ice-liquid water potential temperature (θil) and total non-precipitating water mixing ratio (qt) and the covariance between the two, and the vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum, θil, and qt. Ten corresponding third-order moments in addition to the skewnesses of θil and qt are calculated using diagnostic functions assuming negligible time tendencies. The statistical moments are used to define a trivariate double Gaussian PDF among vertical velocity, θil, and qt. The first three statistical moments of each variable are used to estimate the two Gaussian plume means, variances, and weights. Unlike previous similar models, plume variances are not assumed to be equal or zero. Instead, they are parameterized using the idea that the less dominant Gaussian plume (typically representing the updraft-containing portion of a grid cell) has greater variance than the dominant plume (typically representing the "environmental" or slowly subsiding portion of a grid cell). Correlations among the three variables are calculated using the appropriate covariance moments, and both plume correlations are assumed to be equal. The diagnosed PDF in each grid cell is used to calculate SGS condensation, SGS fluxes of cloud water species, SGS buoyancy terms, and to inform other physical parameterizations about SGS variability. SGS condensation is extended from previous similar models to include condensation over both liquid and ice substrates, dependent on the grid cell temperature. Implementations have been

  6. "I assumed that one was a placebo": exploring the consent process in a sham controlled acupressure trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, John Gareth; Russell, Wanda; Breckons, Matthew; Richardson, Janet; Lloyd-Williams, Mari; Molassiotis, Alex

    2014-10-01

    In clinical trials where participants are likely to be able to distinguish between true and sham interventions, informing participants that they may receive a sham intervention increases the likelihood of participants 'breaking the blind' and invalidating trial findings. The present study explored participants' perceptions of the consent process in a sham controlled acupressure trial which did not explicitly indicate participants may receive a sham intervention. Nested qualitative study within a randomised sham controlled trial of acupressure wristbands for chemotherapy-related nausea. Convenience sample of 26 patients participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts analysed thematically using framework analysis. Study conducted within three geographical sites in the UK: Manchester, Liverpool, and Plymouth. All participants indicated that they believed they were fully informed when providing written consent to participate in the trial. Participants' perceived it was acceptable to employ a sham intervention within the trial of acupressure wristbands without informing potential participants that they may receive a sham treatment. Despite the fact that participants were not informed that one of the treatment arms was a sham intervention the majority indicated they assumed one of the treatment arms would be placebo. Many trials of acupuncture and acupressure do not inform participants they may receive a sham intervention. The current study indicates patients' perceive this approach to the consent process as acceptable. However, the fact participants assume one treatment may be placebo threatens the methodological basis for utilising this approach to the consent process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  8. On the analytical solution of the SN equation in a rectangle assuming an exponential exiting angular flux boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goncalez, Tifani T.; Segatto, Cynthia F.; Vilhena, Marco Tullio

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we report an analytical solution for the set of S N equations for the angular flux, in a rectangle, using the double Laplace transform technique. Its main idea comprehends the steps: application of the Laplace transform in one space variable, solution of the resulting equation by the LTS N method and reconstruction of the double Laplace transformed angular flux using the inversion theorem of the Laplace transform. We must emphasize that we perform the Laplace inversion by the LTS N method in the x direction, meanwhile we evaluate the inversion in the y direction performing the calculation of the corresponding line integral solution by the Stefest method. We have also to figure out that the application of Laplace transform to this type of boundary value problem introduces additional unknown functions associated to the partial derivatives of the angular flux at boundary. Based on the good results attained by the nodal LTS N method, we assume that the angular flux at boundary is also approximated by an exponential function. By analytical we mean that no approximation is done along the solution derivation except for the exponential hypothesis for the exiting angular flux at boundary. For sake of completeness, we report numerical comparisons of the obtained results against the ones of the literature. (author)

  9. Transmission of Helminths between Species of Ruminants in Austria Appears More Likely to Occur than Generally Assumed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Jakob; Rehbein, Steffen; Joachim, Anja

    2018-01-01

    Helminth infections of the gastrointestinal tract and lungs can lead to devastating economical losses to the pastoral based animal production. Farm animals can suffer from malnutrition, tissue damage, and blood loss resulting in impaired production traits and reproduction parameters. In Austria, pastures grazed by sheep, goats, and cattle overlap with the habitats of several species of wild cervids (roe deer, red deer, sika deer, and fallow deer) and bovids (mouflon, chamois, and ibex), and transmission of parasites between different ruminant species seems likely. A complete and updated overview on the occurrence of helminths of domestic and wild ruminants in Austria is presented. Based on these data, intersections of the host spectrum of the determined parasites were depicted. The “liability index” was applied to identify the ruminant species, which most likely transmit parasites between each other. A degree for host specificity was calculated for each parasite species based on the average taxonomic distance of their host species. Of the 73 identified helminth species 42 were identified as generalists, and 14 transmission experiments supported the assumed broad host specificity for 14 generalists and 1 specialist helminth species. Overall, 61 helminths were found to infect more than one host species, and 4 were found in all 10 ruminant species investigated. From these analyses, it can be concluded that a number of helminth parasites of the gastrointestinal tract and the lungs are potentially transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants in Austria. For some parasites and host species, experimental evidence is in support for possible transmission, while for other such studies are lacking. Host preference of different genotypes of the same parasite species may have a confounding effect on the evaluation of cross-transmission, but so far this has not been evaluated systematically in helminths in Austria. Further studies focusing on experimental cross

  10. Transmission of Helminths between Species of Ruminants in Austria Appears More Likely to Occur than Generally Assumed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob Winter

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Helminth infections of the gastrointestinal tract and lungs can lead to devastating economical losses to the pastoral based animal production. Farm animals can suffer from malnutrition, tissue damage, and blood loss resulting in impaired production traits and reproduction parameters. In Austria, pastures grazed by sheep, goats, and cattle overlap with the habitats of several species of wild cervids (roe deer, red deer, sika deer, and fallow deer and bovids (mouflon, chamois, and ibex, and transmission of parasites between different ruminant species seems likely. A complete and updated overview on the occurrence of helminths of domestic and wild ruminants in Austria is presented. Based on these data, intersections of the host spectrum of the determined parasites were depicted. The “liability index” was applied to identify the ruminant species, which most likely transmit parasites between each other. A degree for host specificity was calculated for each parasite species based on the average taxonomic distance of their host species. Of the 73 identified helminth species 42 were identified as generalists, and 14 transmission experiments supported the assumed broad host specificity for 14 generalists and 1 specialist helminth species. Overall, 61 helminths were found to infect more than one host species, and 4 were found in all 10 ruminant species investigated. From these analyses, it can be concluded that a number of helminth parasites of the gastrointestinal tract and the lungs are potentially transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants in Austria. For some parasites and host species, experimental evidence is in support for possible transmission, while for other such studies are lacking. Host preference of different genotypes of the same parasite species may have a confounding effect on the evaluation of cross-transmission, but so far this has not been evaluated systematically in helminths in Austria. Further studies focusing on

  11. Effects of an assumed cosmic ray-modulated low global cloud cover on the Earth's temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, J.; Mendoza, B. [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Mendoza, V.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: victor@atmosfera.unam.mx

    2006-07-15

    We have used the Thermodynamic Model of the Climate to estimate the effect of variations in the low cloud cover on the surface temperature of the Earth in the Northern Hemisphere during the period 1984-1994. We assume that the variations in the low cloud cover are proportional to the variation of the cosmic ray flux measured during the same period. The results indicate that the effect in the surface temperature is more significant in the continents, where for July of 1991, we have found anomalies of the order of 0.7 degrees Celsius for the southeastern of Asia and 0.5 degrees Celsius for the northeast of Mexico. For an increase of 0.75% in the low cloud cover, the surface temperature computed by the model in the North Hemisphere presents a decrease of {approx} 0.11 degrees Celsius; however, for a decrease of 0.90% in the low cloud cover, the model gives an increase in the surface temperature of {approx} 0.15 degrees Celsius, these two cases correspond to a climate sensitivity factor for the case of forcing by duplication of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. These decreases or increases in surface temperature by increases of decreases in low clouds cover are ten times greater than the overall variability of the non-forced model time series. [Spanish] Hemos usado el Modelo Termodinamico del Clima para estimar el efecto de variaciones en la cubierta de nubes bajas sobre la temperatura superficial de la Tierra en el Hemisferio Norte durante el periodo 1984 - 1994. Suponemos que las variaciones en la cubierta de nubes bajas son proporcionales a las variaciones del flujo de rayos cosmicos medido durante el mismo periodo. Los resultados indican que el efecto en la temperatura es mas significativo en los continentes, donde para julio de 1991, hemos encontrado anomalias del orden de 0.7 grados Celsius sobre el sureste de Asia y 0.5 grados Celsius al noreste de Mexico. Para un incremento de 0.75% en la cubierta de nubes bajas, la temperatura de la superficie calculada por el modelo en

  12. Common aspects and differences in the behaviour of classical configuration versus canard configuration aircraft in the presence of vertical gusts, assuming the hypothesis of an elastic fuselage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavian PREOTU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes, in parallel, common aspects and differences in the behavior of classical configuration versus canard configuration aircraft in the presence of vertical gusts, assuming the hypothesis of an elastic fuselage. The effects of the main constructional dimensions of the horizontal empennage on lift cancelling and horizontal empennage control are being analyzed

  13. 41 CFR 302-10.206 - May my agency assume direct responsibility for the costs of preparing and transporting my mobile...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... direct responsibility for the costs of preparing and transporting my mobile home? 302-10.206 Section 302... ALLOWANCES TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE OF PROPERTY 10-ALLOWANCES FOR TRANSPORTATION OF MOBILE HOMES AND BOATS... responsibility for the costs of preparing and transporting my mobile home? Yes, your agency may assume direct...

  14. Internal Audit and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

    2011-01-01

    Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

  15. Preparing for creative responses to “beyond assumed level” disasters: lessons from the ICT management in the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihoko Sakurai

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A survey of the municipal government ICT divisions during and after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami crisis reveals the need for creative responses for “beyond assumed level” disasters. Complexity and diversity of the damage were simply too great for any plans to assume. Resident needs toward the municipal governments were also diverse and changed quickly as the time went by. The research also indicates that there would be ways to strengthen the capabilities to execute such spontaneous responses. Creative solutions executed during the 3.11 crisis were supported by the existence of open source software available on the net and skilled engineers that were capable of exploiting them. Frugal information system will be useful to improve preparedness for creative responses

  16. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  17. Self-ratings of materialism and status consumption in a Malaysian sample: effects of answering during an assumed recession versus economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, W J; Heaney, J G; Goldsmith, R E

    2001-06-01

    Consumers' self-assessments of materialism and status consumption may be influenced by external economic conditions. In this study, 239 Malaysian students were asked to describe their levels of materialism using Richins and Dawson's 1992 Materialism scale and status consumption using Eastman, Goldsmith, and Flynn's 1999 Status Consumption Scale. Half the students were told to respond assuming that they were in an expanding economy, and half as if the economy was in a recession. Comparison of the groups' mean scores showed no statistically significant differences.

  18. Globalization and Risk Sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Jaume Ventura; Fernando A. Broner

    2006-01-01

    We study the effects of globalization on risk sharing and welfare. Like the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot commit to enforce the repayment of debts owed by their citizens. Unlike the previous literature, we assume that governments cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors when enforcing debt payments. This creates novel interactions between domestic and international trade in assets. (i) Increases in domestic trade raise the benefits of enforcement and...

  19. Discussion on the Scope of Legal Fictions to Assume Executives and Employees of Entrusted Agencies Are Civil Servants in the Application of Punishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sang-won; Jang, Gun-hyeon; Kim, Chang-beom; Go, Jae-dong; Ahn, Hyeong-jun; Rhyu, Jung; Chung, Sang-ki

    2008-01-01

    Article 122 of the Atomic Energy Act sets forth that 'executives and employees of an agency engaged in an entrusted work or its associated specialized agency, in the application of any punishment as per the Criminal Act or other laws, shall be regarded as civil servants,' stipulating that the scope of legal fictions to assume such persons are civil servants should be applicable to any punishment as per the Criminal Act or other laws. Accordingly, the executives and employees of an entrusted agency or its associated specialized agency are subject to the punishments not only for acceptance of graft but also for dereliction of duty or divulgence of classified information. In addition, they are also subject to increased punishment in accordance with other laws, for example, such special laws as Law Concerning Increased Punishment for Specified Crimes and Law Concerning Increased Punishment for Specified Economic Crimes

  20. Discussion on the Scope of Legal Fictions to Assume Executives and Employees of Entrusted Agencies Are Civil Servants in the Application of Punishments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sang-won; Jang, Gun-hyeon; Kim, Chang-beom; Go, Jae-dong; Ahn, Hyeong-jun; Rhyu, Jung; Chung, Sang-ki [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-05-15

    Article 122 of the Atomic Energy Act sets forth that 'executives and employees of an agency engaged in an entrusted work or its associated specialized agency, in the application of any punishment as per the Criminal Act or other laws, shall be regarded as civil servants,' stipulating that the scope of legal fictions to assume such persons are civil servants should be applicable to any punishment as per the Criminal Act or other laws. Accordingly, the executives and employees of an entrusted agency or its associated specialized agency are subject to the punishments not only for acceptance of graft but also for dereliction of duty or divulgence of classified information. In addition, they are also subject to increased punishment in accordance with other laws, for example, such special laws as Law Concerning Increased Punishment for Specified Crimes and Law Concerning Increased Punishment for Specified Economic Crimes.

  1. On the analytical solution of the S{sub N} equation in a rectangle assuming an exponential exiting angular flux boundary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalez, Tifani T. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (PROMEC/UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica; Segatto, Cynthia F.; Vilhena, Marco Tullio, E-mail: csegatto@pq.cnpq.b, E-mail: vilhena@pq.cnpq.b [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (DMPA/UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Matematica Aplicada

    2011-07-01

    In this work, we report an analytical solution for the set of S{sub N} equations for the angular flux, in a rectangle, using the double Laplace transform technique. Its main idea comprehends the steps: application of the Laplace transform in one space variable, solution of the resulting equation by the LTS{sub N} method and reconstruction of the double Laplace transformed angular flux using the inversion theorem of the Laplace transform. We must emphasize that we perform the Laplace inversion by the LTS{sub N} method in the x direction, meanwhile we evaluate the inversion in the y direction performing the calculation of the corresponding line integral solution by the Stefest method. We have also to figure out that the application of Laplace transform to this type of boundary value problem introduces additional unknown functions associated to the partial derivatives of the angular flux at boundary. Based on the good results attained by the nodal LTS{sub N} method, we assume that the angular flux at boundary is also approximated by an exponential function. By analytical we mean that no approximation is done along the solution derivation except for the exponential hypothesis for the exiting angular flux at boundary. For sake of completeness, we report numerical comparisons of the obtained results against the ones of the literature. (author)

  2. Introducing the idea of 'assumed shared food narratives' in the context of social networks: reflections from a qualitative study conducted in Nottingham, England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissell, Paul; Peacock, Marian; Holdsworth, Michelle; Powell, Katie; Wilcox, John; Clonan, Angie

    2018-06-19

    This study explores the ways in which social networks might shape accounts about food practices. Drawing on insights from the work of Christakis and Fowler () whose claims about the linkages between obesity and social networks have been the subject of vigorous debate in the sociological literature, we present qualitative data from a study of women's' accounts of social networks and food practices, conducted in Nottingham, England. We tentatively suggest that whilst social networks in their broadest sense, might shape what was perceived to be normal and acceptable in relation to food practices (and provide everyday discursive resources which normalise practice), the relationship between the two is more complex than the linear relationship proposed by Christakis and Fowler. Here, we introduce the idea of assumed shared food narratives (ASFNs), which, we propose, sheds light on motive talk about food practices, and which also provide practical and discursive resources to actors seeking to protect and defend against 'untoward' behaviour, in the context of public health messages around food and eating. We suggest that understanding ASFNs and the ways in which they are embedded in social networks represents a novel way of understanding food and eating practices from a sociological perspective. © 2018 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  3. Assessments of conditioned radioactive waste arisings from existing and committed nuclear installations and assuming a moderate growth in nuclear electricity generation - June 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairclough, M.P.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1985-03-01

    This report describes an assessment of conditioned radioactive waste arisings from existing and committed nuclear installations, DOE Revised Scheme 1, and from an assumed nuclear power generation scenario, DOE Revised Scheme 3, representing a moderate growth in nuclear generation. Radioactive waste arise from 3 main groups of installations and activities: i. existing and committed commercial reactors; ii. fuel reprocessing plants, iii. research, industrial and medical activities. Stage 2 decommissioning wastes are considered together with WAGR decommissioning and the 1983 Sea Dump Consignment. The study uses the SIMULATION 2 code which models waste material flows through a system of waste treatment and packaging to disposal. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of untreated wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data for the inventory calculations have previously been documented. Some recent revisions and assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities are presented in this report. (author)

  4. An assumed mode method and finite element method investigation of the coupled vibration in a flexible-disk rotor system with lacing wires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Shui-Ting; Huang, Hong-Wu [Hunan University, Changsha (China); Chiu, Yi-Jui; Yu, Guo-Fei [Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen (China); Yang, Chia-Hao [Taipei Chengshih University of Science and Technology, Taipei (China); Jian, Sheng-Rui [I-Shou University, Kaohsiung (China)

    2017-02-15

    The Assumed mode method (AMM) and Finite element method (FEM) were used. Their results were compared to investigate the coupled shaft-torsion, disk-transverse, and blade-bending vibrations in a flexible-disk rotor system. The blades were grouped with a spring. The flexible-disk rotor system was divided into three modes of coupled vibrations: Shaft-disk-blade, disk-blade, and blade-blade. Two new modes of coupled vibrations were introduced, namely, lacing wires-blade and lacing wires-disk-blade. The patterns of change of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the system were discussed. The results showed the following: first, mode shapes and natural frequencies varied, and the results of the AMM and FEM differed; second, numerical calculation results showed three influencing factors on natural frequencies, namely, the lacing wire constant, the lacing wire location, and the flexible disk; lastly, the flexible disk could affect the stability of the system as reflected in the effect of the rotational speed.

  5. De novo mutations of GCK, HNF1A and HNF4A may be more frequent in MODY than previously assumed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanik, Juraj; Dusatkova, Petra; Cinek, Ondrej; Valentinova, Lucia; Huckova, Miroslava; Skopkova, Martina; Dusatkova, Lenka; Stanikova, Daniela; Pura, Mikulas; Klimes, Iwar; Lebl, Jan; Gasperikova, Daniela; Pruhova, Stepanka

    2014-03-01

    MODY is mainly characterised by an early onset of diabetes and a positive family history of diabetes with an autosomal dominant mode of inheritance. However, de novo mutations have been reported anecdotally. The aim of this study was to systematically revisit a large collection of MODY patients to determine the minimum prevalence of de novo mutations in the most prevalent MODY genes (i.e. GCK, HNF1A, HNF4A). Analysis of 922 patients from two national MODY centres (Slovakia and the Czech Republic) identified 150 probands (16%) who came from pedigrees that did not fulfil the criterion of two generations with diabetes but did fulfil the remaining criteria. The GCK, HNF1A and HNF4A genes were analysed by direct sequencing. Mutations in GCK, HNF1A or HNF4A genes were detected in 58 of 150 individuals. Parents of 28 probands were unavailable for further analysis, and in 19 probands the mutation was inherited from an asymptomatic parent. In 11 probands the mutations arose de novo. In our cohort of MODY patients from two national centres the de novo mutations in GCK, HNF1A and HNF4A were present in 7.3% of the 150 families without a history of diabetes and 1.2% of all of the referrals for MODY testing. This is the largest collection of de novo MODY mutations to date, and our findings indicate a much higher frequency of de novo mutations than previously assumed. Therefore, genetic testing of MODY could be considered for carefully selected individuals without a family history of diabetes.

  6. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  7. Polymorphisms in the TNFA and IL6 Genes Represent Risk Factors for Autoimmune Thyroid Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvelos, Inês; Mendes, Adélia; Santos, Liliana R.; Machado, José Carlos; Melo, Miguel; Esteves, César; Neves, Celestino; Sobrinho-Simões, Manuel; Soares, Paula

    2014-01-01

    Background Autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD) comprises diseases including Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease, both characterized by reactivity to autoantigens causing, respectively, inflammatory destruction and autoimmune stimulation of the thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor. AITD is the most common thyroid disease and the leading form of autoimmune disease in women. Cytokines are key regulators of the immune and inflammatory responses; therefore, genetic variants at cytokine-encoding genes are potential risk factors for AITD. Methods Polymorphisms in the IL6-174 G/C (rs1800795), TNFA-308 G/A (rs1800629), IL1B-511 C/T (rs16944), and IFNGR1-56 T/C (rs2234711) genes were assessed in a case-control study comprising 420 Hashimoto's thyroiditis patients, 111 Graves' disease patients and 735 unrelated controls from Portugal. Genetic variants were discriminated by real-time PCR using TaqMan SNP genotyping assays. Results A significant association was found between the allele A in TNFA-308 G/A and Hashimoto's thyroiditis, both in the dominant (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.37–2.43, p-value = 4.4×10−5) and log-additive (OR = 1.64, CI = 1.28–2.10, p-value = 8.2×10−5) models. The allele C in IL6-174 G/C is also associated with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, however, only retained significance after multiple testing correction in the log-additive model (OR = 1.28, CI = 1.06–1.54, p-value = 8.9×10−3). The group with Graves' disease also registered a higher frequency of the allele A in TNFA-308 G/A compared with controls both in the dominant (OR = 1.85, CI = 1.19–2.87, p-value = 7.0×10−3) and log-additive (OR = 1.69, CI = 1.17–2.44, p-value = 6.6×10−3) models. The risk for Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease increases with the number of risk alleles (OR for two risk alleles is, respectively, 2.27 and 2.59). Conclusions This study reports significant associations of genetic variants in TNFA and

  8. Polymorphisms in the TNFA and IL6 genes represent risk factors for autoimmune thyroid disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecília Durães

    Full Text Available Autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD comprises diseases including Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease, both characterized by reactivity to autoantigens causing, respectively, inflammatory destruction and autoimmune stimulation of the thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor. AITD is the most common thyroid disease and the leading form of autoimmune disease in women. Cytokines are key regulators of the immune and inflammatory responses; therefore, genetic variants at cytokine-encoding genes are potential risk factors for AITD.Polymorphisms in the IL6-174 G/C (rs1800795, TNFA-308 G/A (rs1800629, IL1B-511 C/T (rs16944, and IFNGR1-56 T/C (rs2234711 genes were assessed in a case-control study comprising 420 Hashimoto's thyroiditis patients, 111 Graves' disease patients and 735 unrelated controls from Portugal. Genetic variants were discriminated by real-time PCR using TaqMan SNP genotyping assays.A significant association was found between the allele A in TNFA-308 G/A and Hashimoto's thyroiditis, both in the dominant (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.37-2.43, p-value = 4.4×10(-5 and log-additive (OR = 1.64, CI = 1.28-2.10, p-value = 8.2×10(-5 models. The allele C in IL6-174 G/C is also associated with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, however, only retained significance after multiple testing correction in the log-additive model (OR = 1.28, CI = 1.06-1.54, p-value = 8.9×10(-3. The group with Graves' disease also registered a higher frequency of the allele A in TNFA-308 G/A compared with controls both in the dominant (OR = 1.85, CI = 1.19-2.87, p-value = 7.0×10(-3 and log-additive (OR = 1.69, CI = 1.17-2.44, p-value = 6.6×10(-3 models. The risk for Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease increases with the number of risk alleles (OR for two risk alleles is, respectively, 2.27 and 2.59.This study reports significant associations of genetic variants in TNFA and IL6 with the risk for AITD, highlighting the

  9. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  10. Saleability of anti-malarials in private drug shops in Muheza, Tanzania: a baseline study in an era of assumed artemisinin combination therapy (ACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ringsted Frank M

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Artemether-lumefantrine (ALu replaced sulphadoxine-pymimethamine (SP as the official first-line anti-malarial in Tanzania in November 2006. So far, artemisinin combination therapy (ACT is contra-indicated during pregnancy by the national malaria treatment guidelines, and pregnant women depend on SP for Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPTp during pregnancy. SP is still being dispensed by private drug stores, but it is unknown to which extent. If significant, it may undermine its official use for IPTp through induction of resistance. The main study objective was to perform a baseline study of the private market for anti-malarials in Muheza town, an area with widespread anti-malarial drug resistance, prior to the implementation of a provider training and accreditation programme that will allow accredited drug shops to sell subsidized ALu. Methods All drug shops selling prescription-only anti-malarials, in Muheza town, Tanga Region voluntarily participated from July to December 2009. Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with owners or shopkeepers on saleability of anti-malarials, and structured questionnaires provided quantitative data on drugs sales volume. Results All surveyed drug shops illicitly sold SP and quinine (QN, and legally amodiaquine (AQ. Calculated monthly sale was 4,041 doses, in a town with a population of 15,000 people. Local brands of SP accounted for 74% of sales volume, compared to AQ (13%, QN (11% and ACT (2%. Conclusions In community practice, the saleability of ACT was negligible. SP was best-selling, and use was not reserved for IPTp, as stipulated in the national anti-malarial policy. It is a major reason for concern that such drug-pressure in the community equals de facto intermittent presumptive treatment. In an area where SP drug resistance remains high, unregulated SP dispensing to people other than pregnant women runs the risk of eventually jeopardizing the effectiveness of the IPTp

  11. Urine suPAR levels compared with plasma suPAR levels as predictors of post-consultation mortality risk among individuals assumed to be TB-negative: a prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rabna, Paulo; Andersen, Andreas; Wejse, Christian

    2010-01-01

    -suPAR was measured using a commercial ELISA (suPARnostic®). We found that U-suPAR carried significant prognostic information on mortality for HIV-infected subjects with an area under the ROC curve of 0.75. For HIV-negative individuals, little or no prognostic effect was observed. However, in both HIV positives...... and negatives, the predictive effect of U-suPAR was found to be inferior to that of P-suPAR....

  12. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  13. Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oien, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

  14. Luther's thought assumed form in polemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vind, Anna

    2014-01-01

    Luther’s polemic reflects not self-confidence but confidence in God’s Word. His polemic arose in the context of the university disputation, which sought truth and examined skills through disputation. Luther discovered God’s Word’s ability to serve as weapon against his foes. In several literary g...

  15. Is CERN Council assuming its responsibilities?

    CERN Multimedia

    Association du personnel

    2008-01-01

    Before the June official meetings, the Staff Association handed over a letter (see following page) to the President of CERN Council in support of the recommendation of the Governing Board of the Pension Fund to increase contributions by 0.76%, as a step towards a better balance of our Fund.

  16. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  17. Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heino, A.; van der Molen, H.H.; Wilde, G.J S

    1996-01-01

    In Wilde's risk homeostasis theory, it is assumed that people have a target risk which guides their behaviour. The prime purpose of this experimental on-road study was to establish the effect of the need for stimulation or sensation seeking on this target risk. in addition, the relationship between

  18. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  19. Risk considerations for fusion energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazimi, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    An assessment is made of the public and occupational health effects implied in the utilization of fusion reactors as a source of electricity. Three conceptual designs for TOKAMAK fusion reactors are used in the assessment. It was assumed in this analysis that a fusion plant will release 10 Ci/day of tritium to the atmosphere. Risk from waste management and accidents are estimated relative to risk of LWR's energy cycle. Comparison of the fusion occupational and public risk from coal, LWR, solar thermal and solar-photovoltaic plants has been undertaken. It is concluded that, compared to other fuel cycles, fusion can potentially have a favorable position with respect to risk

  20. The Evolving Forms of Risk Reporting Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Ulrik; Thrane, Sof; Andersen, Torben Juul

    reporting system. The risk management frameworks generally assume that information is communicated in exact codified form, but little research has analyzed the construction of risk when the reporting trespasses organizational levels. The managers in the middle however are often depicted as mediators between...

  1. Small dependencies and large actuarial risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim; Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Lukocius, V.

    2006-01-01

    Methods for computing risk measures such as stop-loss premiums tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. From earlier studies it is already known that this assumption can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper a general model is

  2. Contextual risk and child psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, Eirini

    2008-10-01

    In developmental psychopathology it almost goes without saying that contextual risk factors do not occur in isolation and that it is the combination of various risk factors that portends numerous negative child outcomes. Despite this, the body of literature that examines the relation between multiple risk exposure and child psychopathology using a cumulative risk approach is still relatively small. Even when studies use a cumulative risk approach they rarely test properly whether the relation between cumulative risk and child psychopathology is linear or nonlinear, with consequences for both theory development and intervention design: if cumulative risk impacts problem behavior in a positively accelerated exponential manner, for instance, it means that exposure to multiple risk is especially difficult to manage as problem behavior accelerates at a critical level of risk. Furthermore, few studies have actually examined factors that protect from negative outcomes in those exposed to cumulative risk and even fewer have explored cumulative protection in relation to cumulative risk. On the other hand, there is the view that a cumulative risk approach at least implicitly assumes that risk factors are, in essence, interchangeable. According to this view, the importance of testing for specificity should not be underestimated. Finally, the renewed interest in the role of neighborhood risk in child development has initiated a lively debate as to whether contextual risk should be operationalized at the family or the area level. In this letter I discuss these issues, and offer some suggestions as to how future research can address them.

  3. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  5. Government Risk-Bearing

    CERN Document Server

    1993-01-01

    The u.s. government bulks large in the nation's financial markets. The huge volume of government-issued and -sponsored debt affects the pricing and volume ofprivate debt and, consequently, resource allocation between competing alternatives. What is often not fully appreciated is the substantial influence the federal government wields overresource allocation through its provisionofcreditandrisk-bearing services to the private economy. Because peopleand firms generally seekto avoid risk, atsomeprice they are willing to pay another party to assume the risk they would otherwise face. Insurance companies are a class of private-sector firms one commonly thinks of as providing these services. As the federal government has expanded its presence in the U.S. economy during this century, it has increasingly developed programs aimed at bearing risks that the private sector either would not take on at any price, or would take on but atapricethoughtto besogreatthatmostpotentialbeneficiarieswouldnotpurchase the coverage. To...

  6. Health shocks and risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Simon; Schmitz, Hendrik

    2016-12-01

    We empirically assess whether a health shock influences individual risk aversion. We use grip strength data to obtain an objective health shock indicator. In order to account for the non-random nature of our data regression-adjusted matching is employed. Risk preferences are traditionally assumed to be constant. However, we find that a health shock increases individual risk aversion. The finding is robust to a series of sensitivity analyses and persists for at least four years after the shock. Income changes do not seem to be the driving mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Stefanovits

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk.

  8. Managing sovereign credit risk in bond portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Bruder, Benjamin; Hereil, Pierre; Roncalli, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    With the recent development of the European debt crisis, traditional index bond management has been severely called into question. We focus here on the risk issues raised by the classical market-capitalization weighting scheme. We propose an approach to properly measure sovereign credit risk in a fixed-income portfolio. For that, we assume that CDS spreads follow a SABR process and we derive a sovereign credit risk measure based on CDS spreads and duration of portfolio bonds. We then consider...

  9. Ethical Aspects of Radiation Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wikman-Svahn, Per

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is based on the assumption that the intersection of moral philosophy and practical risk management is a rewarding area to study. In particular, the thesis assumes that concepts, ideas, and methods that are used in moral philosophy can be of great benefit for risk analysis, but also that practices in risk regulation provide a useful testing ground for moral philosophical theories. The thesis consists of an introduction and five articles. Article I is a review article on social and ...

  10. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  11. 14 CFR 1214.113 - Allocation of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Allocation of risk. 1214.113 Section 1214.113 Aeronautics and Space NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION SPACE FLIGHT General....113 Allocation of risk. The U.S. Government will assume no risk for damages to the customer resulting...

  12. Risk in the public's eyes: Incorporating risks and public outreach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saulnier, J.-E.

    2005-01-01

    New social risk management: perceived risk and actual risk - Risks at the heart of public concerns (health, environment) - Refusal to delegate power to a centralized authority - Calling scientific beliefs into doubt A new context: dialog with stakeholders and general public - 1980s: questions not taken into account/negative debate/Chernobyl - New context: increase in the price of oil/fossil fuel reserves/energy mix - Arbitration between perceived risks/advantages can only occur during this period Time for transparency: a new corporate attitude - Work on explaining and listening to rationalize the public's perception - Assume one's role and responsibilities as an industry that is socially aware: transparency policy/participation in the discussion/dialog with stakeholders Concrete example: AREVA communications policy since 1999 (web cam, etc.) in France and abroad. (author)

  13. Discourse on risks: The definition of risks as a matter of debate in society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, C.

    1989-01-01

    The article deals with a certain aspect of a sociological interpretation of the complex subject of risks to be accepted by a society, i.e. with the problem of the implications and impacts of acceptable risk definition becoming a topic of social conflict. The author assumes that the novel conflicts arising from effects of risks and costs of risks are beginning to superimpose upon the traditional conflict patterns of an industrial society. Characteristic features of conflicts about risks, resulting consequences, and three types of risk are discussed. (DG) [de

  14. Pricing of Asian temperature risk

    OpenAIRE

    Benth, Fred; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; López Cabrera, Brenda

    2009-01-01

    Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  16. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  17. The exposure of microfinance institutions to financial risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gietzen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the exposure of microfinance institutions to liquidity-, interest rate and foreign exchange (FX risk. Using manually collected data from microfinance institutions’ financial reporting, I find that the microfinance sector faces minimal liquidity risk, high interest rate risk and a lower than commonly assumed exposure to FX risk. Linking risk exposure to institutional characteristics, the data shows that legal status and regional affiliation are correlated with risk exposure while regulatory quality is not. Results suggest that the development community may not expect large benefits from expanding the plethora of current measures taken to mitigate liquidity or FX risk.

  18. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandasamy, Narayanan; Hardy, Ben; Page, Lionel; Schaffner, Markus; Graggaber, Johann; Powlson, Andrew S; Fletcher, Paul C; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John

    2014-03-04

    Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over 8 d to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking and found that participants became more risk-averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an underappreciated cause of market instability.

  19. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandasamy, Narayanan; Hardy, Ben; Page, Lionel; Schaffner, Markus; Graggaber, Johann; Powlson, Andrew S.; Fletcher, Paul C.; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John

    2014-01-01

    Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over 8 d to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking and found that participants became more risk-averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an underappreciated cause of market instability. PMID:24550472

  20. Tumour control probability derived from dose distribution in homogeneous and heterogeneous models: assuming similar pharmacokinetics, 125Sn–177Lu is superior to 90Y–177Lu in peptide receptor radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walrand, Stephan; Hanin, François-Xavier; Pauwels, Stanislas; Jamar, François

    2012-01-01

    Clinical trials on 177 Lu– 90 Y therapy used empirical activity ratios. Radionuclides (RN) with larger beta maximal range could favourably replace 90 Y. Our aim is to provide RN dose-deposition kernels and to compare the tumour control probability (TCP) of RN combinations. Dose kernels were derived by integration of the mono-energetic beta-ray dose distributions (computed using Monte Carlo) weighted by their respective beta spectrum. Nine homogeneous spherical tumours (1–25 mm in diameter) and four spherical tumours including a lattice of cold, but alive, spheres (1, 3, 5, 7 mm in diameter) were modelled. The TCP for 93 Y, 90 Y and 125 Sn in combination with 177 Lu in variable proportions (that kept constant the renal cortex biological effective dose) were derived by 3D dose kernel convolution. For a mean tumour-absorbed dose of 180 Gy, 2 mm homogeneous tumours and tumours including 3 mm diameter cold alive spheres were both well controlled (TCP > 0.9) using a 75–25% combination of 177 Lu and 90 Y activity. However, 125 Sn– 177 Lu achieved a significantly better result by controlling 1 mm-homogeneous tumour simultaneously with tumours including 5 mm diameter cold alive spheres. Clinical trials using RN combinations should use RN proportions tuned to the patient dosimetry. 125 Sn production and its coupling to somatostatin analogue appear feasible. Assuming similar pharmacokinetics 125 Sn is the best RN for combination with 177 Lu in peptide receptor radiotherapy justifying pharmacokinetics studies in rodent of 125 Sn-labelled somatostatin analogues. (paper)

  1. A flexible model for actuarial risks under dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim; Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Lukocius, V.

    Methods for computing risk measures, such as stop-loss premiums, tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. This can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper, a general model is developed which covers what happens in practice in a

  2. On the Empirical Evidence of Mutual Fund Strategic Risk Taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goriaev, A.P.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2001-01-01

    We reexamine empirical evidence on strategic risk-taking behavior by mutual fund managers.Several studies suggest that fund performance in the first semester of a year influences risk-taking in the second semester.However, we show that previous empirical studies implicitly assume that idiosyncratic

  3. Review of interspecies risk comparisons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, S.L.; Brett, S.M.; Gough, M.; Rodricks, J.V.; Tardiff, R.G.; Turnbull, D.

    1988-01-01

    Use of laboratory animal data to make quantitative predictions of the risks of toxic effects in humans assumes that a relationship exists between the potencies in animals and humans and that its parameters can be estimated adequately. Such ''scaling rules'' have been used to predict the risks of carcinogenicity or other effects. A survey of the literature yielded only a modest number of papers devoted to the validity of these interspecies risk extrapolations, of which approximately 25 attempt quantitative comparisons for either radiation or chemical hazards. Some authors have investigated relatively large data sets in an attempt to identify the scaling rule that provides the best correlation of risks in two or more species. Others have selected a scaling rule and investigated whether its predictions from data in laboratory species match the risks found in humans. Opinion is divided on the validity of specific extrapolation rules and the utility of animal experiments for quantitative risk assessment. Correlations exist among risk levels in various species, but many factors appear to influence toxicity that are not captured in a simple scaling rule such as dose per unit weight or per unit surface area. Although scaling rules are useful, better projections will be made if case-specific factors such as pharmacokinetics can be considered. Further careful comparisons of quantitative risk estimates are needed. 38 references

  4. IRS1, TCF7L2, ADRB1, PPARG, and HHEX Polymorphisms Associated with Atherogenic Risk in Mexican Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. I. Estrada-Velasco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. We aimed to explore the association between polymorphisms of IRS1 (rs1801278, TCF7L2 (rs7903146 and rs12255372, ADRB1 (rs1801253, PPARG (rs1801282, and HHEX (rs5015480 genes with atherogenic risk (AI = Total cholesterol/HDL in MetS, T2D, and healthy populations from the Mexican Social Security Institute. Methodology and Results. Four hundred thirty-five MetS, 517 T2D, and 547 healthy individuals were selected. The association between the SNPs and the atherogenic index was evaluated by multiple linear regression and multinomial logistic regression models. The ADRB1 gene showed a statistically significant association with high-risk atherogenic index, OR=2.94 (IC 95% 1.64–5.24; P<0.0001 for the Arg/Gly variant, under the dominant model an OR=2.96 (IC 95% 1.67–5.25; P<0.0001, and under the Log additive model an OR=2.52 (IC 95% 1.54–4.15; P<0.0001. Conclusions. The Arg389Gly polymorphism of the ADRB1 gene may be a worthy biological marker to predict the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases given a high-risk atherogenic index.

  5. The Social Negotiation of Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ouzounian, Gerard [ANDRA, Chatenay-Malabry (France); Gaston, Didier; Vindimian, Eric [INERIS, Vemeuil-en-Halatte (France); Brugnot, Gerard [CEMAGREF, St-Martin-d' Heres (France); Masure, Philippe [BRGM, Orleans (France)

    2001-07-01

    The prevention of risk and the necessary protection against its consequences require a sound scientific and technical approach that may only be achieved once all stakeholders mutually agree on the means to be used. Those means depend on a social structure that relies on their accessibility and on the nature of the risks that society is ready to assume. Such a structure raises a series of different questions, all with various connotations: Technical: Do we have solutions to prevent risk and limit its consequences? Scientific: What do we know about risk and to what extent is it possible to foresee an event and its potential consequences? Economical: What financial means can we allocate to risk prevention? Insurance: What types of risk may be covered? Political and ethical: What is the significance of the community concerned? What types of risk are acceptable? Legal: What liabilities stand with regard to risk prevention and protection? Societal and political: What process needs to be adopted? In a democracy, who may hold the responsibility to decide on behalf of the population? Any approach that would restrict unduly any of those parameters would lead inevitably to a series of contentions resulting from neglected aspects - and eventually to failure. That explains why several projects had to be abandoned or rejected in recent decades, simply because of insufficient consultation or interaction. The third phase involves qualitative and quantitative predictions of impacts on relevant targets (human beings, ecosystem, industrial or capital goods). After adopting a probabilistic approach (hierarchisation of causes according to more or less probabilistic scenarios) and rating effects on a severity scale, the assessment may proceed with the fourth phase where risks are evaluated, rated and categorised based on acceptable thresholds that lie at the core of the social negotiation. Once the risk assessment is over, the risk manager is able to take preventive, protective and

  6. The Social Negotiation of Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouzounian, Gerard; Gaston, Didier; Vindimian, Eric; Brugnot, Gerard; Masure, Philippe

    2001-01-01

    The prevention of risk and the necessary protection against its consequences require a sound scientific and technical approach that may only be achieved once all stakeholders mutually agree on the means to be used. Those means depend on a social structure that relies on their accessibility and on the nature of the risks that society is ready to assume. Such a structure raises a series of different questions, all with various connotations: Technical: Do we have solutions to prevent risk and limit its consequences? Scientific: What do we know about risk and to what extent is it possible to foresee an event and its potential consequences? Economical: What financial means can we allocate to risk prevention? Insurance: What types of risk may be covered? Political and ethical: What is the significance of the community concerned? What types of risk are acceptable? Legal: What liabilities stand with regard to risk prevention and protection? Societal and political: What process needs to be adopted? In a democracy, who may hold the responsibility to decide on behalf of the population? Any approach that would restrict unduly any of those parameters would lead inevitably to a series of contentions resulting from neglected aspects - and eventually to failure. That explains why several projects had to be abandoned or rejected in recent decades, simply because of insufficient consultation or interaction. The third phase involves qualitative and quantitative predictions of impacts on relevant targets (human beings, ecosystem, industrial or capital goods). After adopting a probabilistic approach (hierarchisation of causes according to more or less probabilistic scenarios) and rating effects on a severity scale, the assessment may proceed with the fourth phase where risks are evaluated, rated and categorised based on acceptable thresholds that lie at the core of the social negotiation. Once the risk assessment is over, the risk manager is able to take preventive, protective and

  7. The unreachable zero risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanguy, P.

    2000-01-01

    Nuclear industry enjoys a high standard of accident prevention compared with other dangerous industrial activities. Even at the very beginning of the nuclear era, experts were aware that the development of the pacific use of nuclear energy must imply an efficient policy of accident prevention. The principle of mitigation was applied very early in nuclear industry, this principle stipulates that even if we can demonstrate that the risk of a particular accident is very low, we should assume that this accident happens and we should take dispositions in order to reduce its impact on man and environment. It is the application of the mitigation principle that led Americans to enclose nuclear reactors in concrete containments. (A.C.)

  8. Applying risk management strategies to strengthen an IDS's investment policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, R P

    1998-11-01

    The increased financial risk that not-for-profit integrated delivery systems have assumed to function under managed care has required them to become increasingly reliant on income and gains from their investment portfolios. This reliance underscores the need for these organizations to take steps to effectively manage their investment risk. Not-for-profit IDSs should establish a systematic approach to investment risk management that is based on maintaining a sound fiduciary infrastructure and having a clear understanding of risk exposures, the most important of which are policy and market risk. Applying reasonable and common-sense risk management strategies to investment policy will enhance an IDS's overall financial and competitive strength.

  9. GENERAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF REPORTING AND MANAGEMENT REPORTING RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA I. LUNGU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Highlighting risks and uncertainties reporting based on a literature review research. Objectives: The delimitation of risk management models and uncertainties in fundamental research. Research method: Fundamental research study directed to identify the relevant risks’ models presented in entities’ financial statements. Uncertainty is one of the fundamental coordinates of our world. As showed J.K. Galbraith (1978, the world now lives under the age of uncertainty. Moreover, we can say that contemporary society development could be achieved by taking decisions under uncertainty, though, risks. Growing concern for the study of uncertainty, its effects and precautions led to the rather recent emergence of a new science, science of hazards (les cindyniques - l.fr. (Kenvern, 1991. Current analysis of risk are dominated by Beck’s (1992 notion that a risk society now exists whereby we have become more concerned about our impact upon nature than the impact of nature upon us. Clearly, risk permeates most aspects of corporate but also of regular life decision-making and few can predict with any precision the future. The risk is almost always a major variable in real-world corporate decision-making, and managers that ignore it are in a real peril. In these circumstances, a possible answer is assuming financial discipline with an appropriate system of incentives.

  10. Integrating household risk mitigation behaviour in flood risk analysis : An agent-based model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect

  11. Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikami, D

    1997-10-01

    Financial risk management of pharmacy benefits in integrated health systems is explained. A managed care organization should assume financial risk for pharmacy benefits only if it can manage the risk. Horizontally integrated organizations often do not have much control over the management of drug utilization and costs. Vertically integrated organizations have the greatest ability to manage pharmacy financial risk; virtual integration may also be compatible. Contracts can be established in which the provider is incentivized or placed at partial or full risk. The main concerns that health plans have with respect to pharmacy capitation are formulary management and the question of who should receive rebates from manufacturers. The components needed to managed pharmacy financial risk depend on the type of contract negotiated. Health-system pharmacists are uniquely positioned to take advantage of opportunities opening up through pharmacy risk contracting. Functions most organizations must provide when assuming pharmacy financial risk can be divided into internal and external categories. Internally performed functions include formulary management, clinical pharmacy services and utilization management, and utilization reports for physicians. Functions that can be outsourced include claims processing and administration, provider- and customer support services, and rebates. Organizations that integrate the pharmacy benefit across the health care continuum will be more effective in controlling costs and improving outcomes than organizations that handle this benefit as separate from others. Patient care should not focus on payment mechanisms and unit costs but on developing superior processes and systems that improve health care.

  12. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  13. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  14. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  15. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  16. Reflections on the institutional difficulties to perform actions on risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leoz M, Francisco Javier

    2008-01-01

    In Colombia, risk management is organised through a set of norms which define hierarchic levels where some state agencies, amongst other duties, assume the task to administer risk prevention. This set of rules creates difficulties amongst agencies responsible for risk reduction. One of these problems is related to jurisdiction limits, which render impossible investments destined to reduce risk in areas lying outside legally defined territories. Another problem is the structure of the National System for Prevention and Relief of Disasters, which obliges municipalities to assume the whole responsibility. Furthermore, rules and management related to technical data are considered as obstacles for efficient risk management

  17. Technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1998-01-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  18. Technological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  19. Inducing Risk Neutral Preferences with Binary Lotteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    2013-01-01

    validity of any strategic equilibrium behavior, or even the customary independence axiom. We show that subjects sampled from our population are generally risk averse when lotteries are defined over monetary outcomes, and that the binary lottery procedure does indeed induce a statistically significant shift......We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior. We strip the experimental implementation down to bare bones, taking care to avoid any potentially confounding assumptions about behavior having to be made. In particular, our evaluation does not rely on the assumed...... toward risk neutrality. This striking result generalizes to the case in which subjects make several lottery choices and one is selected for payment....

  20. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  1. Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2015-01-01

    In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....

  2. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  3. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  4. Cardiovascular risk prediction: the old has given way to the new but at what risk-benefit ratio?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeboah J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Joseph Yeboah Heart and Vascular Center of Excellence, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA Abstract: The ultimate goal of cardiovascular risk prediction is to identify individuals in the population to whom the application or administration of current proven lifestyle modifications and medicinal therapies will result in reduction in cardiovascular disease events and minimal adverse effects (net benefit to society. The use of cardiovascular risk prediction tools dates back to 1976 when the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score was published. Since then a lot of novel risk markers have been identified and other cardiovascular risk prediction tools have been developed to either improve or replace the Framingham Risk Score (FRS. In 2013, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator was published by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association to replace the FRS for cardiovascular risk prediction. It is too soon to know the performance of the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator. The risk-benefit ratio for preventive therapy (lifestyle modifications, statin +/− aspirin based on cardiovascular disease risk assessed using the FRS is unknown but it was assumed to be a net benefit. Should we also assume the risk-benefit ratio for the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator is also a net benefit? Keywords: risk prediction, prevention, cardiovascular disease

  5. Risk-matching behavior in microcredit group formation: evidence from northern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berhane Tesfay, G.; Gardebroek, C.; Moll, H.A.J.

    2009-01-01

    Theoretical models on group lending assume the formation of groups of homogenous risk types. Recent theoretical and empirical findings challenge this view arguing that when markets for insurance are missing, risk homogeneity may not hold any more and risk heterogeneity can be the optimal outcome.

  6. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Industrial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1981-01-01

    A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

  8. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  9. Fire Risk Scoping Study: Investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk, including previously unaddressed issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambright, J.A.; Nowlen, S.P.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    An investigation of nuclear power plant fire risk issues raised as a result of the USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories has been performed. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. In performance of the fire risk scenario requantifications several important insights were gained. It was found that utilization of a more extensive operational experience base resulted in both fire occurrence frequencies and fire duration times (i.e., time required for fire suppression) increasing significantly over those assumed in the original works. Additionally, some thermal damage threshold limits assumed in the original works were identified as being nonconservative based on more recent experimental data. Finally, application of the COMPBRN III fire growth model resulted in calculation of considerably longer fire damage times than those calculated in the original works using COMPBRN I. 14 refs., 2 figs., 16 tabs

  10. The risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

    2006-01-01

    In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)

  11. Risk determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The issue gives a survey of the legal, theological, statistical and health aspects of risk determination. It includes the opinions of physicians, epidemiologists, mathematicians, toxicologists, biologists, theologists and physicists who explain and illustrate the term of risk from their perspective. (orig./DG) [de

  12. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magne, L.

    1999-01-01

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  13. Embracing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Cagan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?

  14. Output Price Risk, Material Input Price Risk, and Price Margins: Evidence from the US Catfish Industry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bouras

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - To develop a conceptual model for analyzing the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins. Design/methodology/approach - To analyze the combined effect of output price risk and material input risk on price margins, we use a series of comparative static analyses, GARCH models, and data ranging from 1990/01 to 2012/12. Findings - The theoretical results indicate that the impact of output price risk and the impact of material input price risk on price margins are ambiguous and, to a great extent, hinge on the correlation between output price and material input price. The empirical results show that whole frozen catfish price risk and live catfish price risk negatively affect the price margin for frozen catfish. The empirical results, however, indicate that the risk of the price of live catfish affects markedly the price margin for frozen whole catfish in contrast to the impact of the risk of the price of frozen whole catfish. Research implications/limitations - The empirical results have significant implications for managerial decision-making especially when crafting strategies for improving price margins. Accordingly, in order to beef up the price margin for frozen whole catfish, catfish processors may consider engaging in vertical integration. This paper has some limitations: first, it assumes that firms operate in competitive markets; second, it assumes that firms produce and sell a single product. Originality/value/contribution - Unlike earlier studies that focused solely on the effect of output price risk on price margins, this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins.

  15. Lung cancer risk models from experimental animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1988-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to present analyses of data based on methods that adequately account for time-related factors and competiting risks, and that yield results that are expressed in a form comparable to results obtained from recent analyses of epidemiological studies of humans exposed to radon and radon daughters. These epidemiological analyses have modeled the hazard, or age-specific death rates, as a function of factors such as dose and dose rate, time from exposure, and time from cessation of exposure. The starting point for many of the analyses of human data has been the constant relative risk modeling which the age-specific death rates are assumed to be a function of cumulative dose, and the risks due to exposure are assumed to be proportional to the age-specific baseline death rates. However, departures from this initial model, such as dependence of risks on age at risk and/or time from exposure, have been investigated. These analyses have frequently been based on a non-parametric model that requires minimal assumptions regarding the baseline risks and their dependence on age

  16. Estimating Fire Risks at Industrial Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) has a wide variety of nuclear production facilities that include chemical processing facilities, machine shops, production reactors, and laboratories. Current safety documentation must be maintained for the nuclear facilities at SRS. Fire Risk Analyses (FRAs) are used to support the safety documentation basis. These FRAs present the frequency that specified radiological and chemical consequences will be exceeded. The consequence values are based on mechanistic models assuming specific fire protection features fail to function as designed

  17. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  18. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  19. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levenson, M.

    1989-01-01

    The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

  20. Risk theory

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidli, Hanspeter

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

  1. Risk as a social phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamison, Wesley V

    2003-01-01

    What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape

  2. Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Costin NIŢESCU

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

  3. A current perspective on the risk significance of steam explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, A.W.

    1982-01-01

    The view currently held in the Sandia National Laboratory is that, in the case of a meltdown in the reactor core, the probability of a steam explosion is greater than was estimated in WASH-1400, but that the extent and effect of an explosion will be very much smaller than assumed in WASH-1400. This results in a far smaller total risk with regard to containment. In WASH-1400, a nominal conditional probability of 1% was assumed for a containment rupture in a PWR-type reactor, should a large part of the reactor fuel be subject to meltdown during the course of the accident. The German risk analysis study 'Deutsche Risikostudie Kernkraftwerke' dated 1979 considers an explosion of a size sufficient to represent a threat to containment to be considerably more improbable than was assumed in WASH-1400. (orig./DG) [de

  4. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  5. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  6. Technological risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

  7. Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Berlinger, Edina; Váradi, Kata

    2015-01-01

    Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

  8. Technological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

  9. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  10. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  11. Benefits and risks of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnert, H.; Borsch, P.; Feldmann, A.; Merz, E.; Muench, E.; Oesterwind, D.; Voss, A.

    1977-03-01

    Discussion, in a popular form, of issues of interest for an unemotional information of the public on problems of nuclear power: 1) Energy consumption, its assumed growth, and possible ways of supply; 2) the physical fundamental and technical realisation of power generation by nuclear fission; 3) problems of the fuel cycle and possible solutions; 4) the effects of radioactive radiation; 5) the safety of nuclear power plants and the risks of nuclear power as compared to other technical and natural risks. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Risk as a target of safety research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, W.

    1986-01-01

    Job creation is not the idea behind the demand for risk studies to be intensified in safety research. Risks are not only a target safety research should investigate, they are a subject that actually can be most adequately investigated by safety research. Assuming a neutral position between irrational fears and interest-minded problem minimization, that is the central approach and the ethics of a safety scientist. The Babylonian confusion of terminology experienced after the Chernobyl accident is a good example proving the necessity of fostering the neutral professionalism in safety research. (orig./DG) [de

  13. Engineering risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

    1991-01-01

    The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

  14. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  15. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  16. Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

    2016-11-01

    Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  17. FINANCIAL RISK COVERAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Esperanza González-del Foyo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In a globalized environment, the increase of risks that assume the international commerce makes necessary the to articulate the instruments of covering. The enterprise activity and the country in matter will condition in a great measure the type of covering that be needed to contract, the principal consist in: knowing the risks, evaluate its incidence, decide to cover it or assume it and in both cases the right choise most be the aplication of the strategy thatt be more efective. The States put under disposition of the enterprises a series of public mechanismes to help them to promote its internationalitation . One of the pillars where this politics rest is the use of mechanismes of riskes cover in the internacional commerce. In correspondence with the previous, to reflect on the aplications of the financial risk and the formulation of strategies to cover them in conditions of globalization of the financial markets, constitute the objetive of this article. 

  18. Letter: Accuracy of Glucometers Should Not Be Assumed

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-01

    critically ill patients . Am J Crit Care. 2007;16(4):336-347. Article Spreads the Word About VAP Prevention With respect to the article by Labeau et al,1... VAP and related morbidity and mortality can be reduced by preven- tive measures such as those mentioned in the article (eg, semirecumbent positioning ...support their loved one’s life,” whereas the physicians and nurses feel that to continue to poke, prod, and stick the patient , and to put a tube in

  19. Call Admission Scheme for Multidimensional Traffic Assuming Finite Handoff User

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Baitul Al Sadi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, the number of users within a cell in a mobile cellular network is considered infinite; hence, M/M/n/k model is appropriate for new originated traffic, but the number of ongoing calls around a cell is always finite. Hence, the traffic model of handoff call will be M/M/n/k/N. In this paper, a K-dimensional traffic model of a mobile cellular network is proposed using the combination of limited and unlimited users case. A new call admission scheme (CAS is proposed based on both thinning scheme and fading condition. The fading condition of the wireless channel access to a handoff call is prioritized compared to newly originated calls.

  20. 24 CFR 203.41 - Free assumability; exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... otherwise provided in the HOME Investment Partnerships (HOME) and the Homeownership and Opportunity for... limitations applicable in the jurisdiction. (3) Except as otherwise required by the HOME and HOPE programs... that the holder of the right of entry for condition broken also executes the mortgage, and that the...

  1. Assuming too much? Participatory water resource governance in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Julia

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that participation in natural resource management, which is often coupled with moves for more local ownership of decision making, is based on three sets of assumptions: about the role of the state, the universality of application of such approaches and the transformatory potential of institutional reform. The validity of these assumptions requires investigation in view of the rapid institutionalisation and scaling-up of participatory approaches, particularly in developing country contexts. Post-apartheid South Africa is widely recognised as a pioneer of participatory and devolutionary approaches, particularly in the field of water resources. It is 12 years since the promulgation of the forward-thinking 1998 National Water Act, and thus an opportune moment to reflect on South Africa's experiences of participatory governance. Drawing on empirical research covering the establishment of the first Catchment Management Agency, and the transformation of existing Irrigation Boards into more inclusive Water User Associations in the Inkomati Water Management Area, it emerges that there may be fundamental weaknesses in the participatory model and underlying assumptions, and indeed such approaches may actually reinforce inequitable outcomes: the legacy of long-established institutional frameworks and powerful actors therein continues to exert influence in post-apartheid South Africa, and has the potential to subvert the democratic and redistributive potential of the water reforms. It is argued that a reassessment of the role of the state is necessary: where there is extreme heterogeneity in challenging catchments more, rather than less, state intervention may be required to uphold the interests of marginalised groups and effect redistribution.

  2. Accurate or Assumed: Visual Learning in Children with ASD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trembath, David; Vivanti, Giacomo; Iacono, Teresa; Dissanayake, Cheryl

    2015-01-01

    Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are often described as visual learners. We tested this assumption in an experiment in which 25 children with ASD, 19 children with global developmental delay (GDD), and 17 typically developing (TD) children were presented a series of videos via an eye tracker in which an actor instructed them to…

  3. 24 CFR 203.512 - Free assumability; exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... AUTHORITIES SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE INSURANCE Servicing Responsibilities General Requirements § 203.512 Free..., agree to or enforce legal restrictions on conveyance, as defined in § 203.41(a)(3) of this part, or... descent. (c) Investors and secondary residences. The mortgagee shall not approve the sale of other...

  4. The assumed relation between occupation and inequality in health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Jacob; Kanstrup, Anne Marie; Josephsson, Staffan

    2016-01-01

    literature, published from 2004 to 2014. Findings: The review revealed several descriptions and conceptualizations based on environmental, social, cultural, historical, and personal perspectives on occupation and already existing occupational science concepts. However, these descriptions were mainly based...

  5. THE MODIFICATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL EMPLOYMENT CONTRACT ASSUMING UNPREDICTABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Vidat

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Adapting a gainful occupation to technological or economical development may require the amendment of individual labor contract under which the activity is performed, taking into account the intrinsic dynamics of employment. If the parties, by agreement, determine the content of the individual labor contract, all in agreement, may agree at any time to amend it according to art. 41 para. 1 of the Labour Code. And trough the provisions of civil law – common law for the employment law – are established legal the review of the effects of the legal actdue because of the breakage contractual balance due to change in the circumstances envisaged by the parties in the moment of conclusion of the legal act (the so-called theory of unpredictability, rebus sic stantibus – exception to the principle "pacta sunt servanda". Recourse to the legal document review because its effects are other than the parties agreed to establish and be binding in the moment of conclusion of that agreement. In the present paper we will refer to administrative contracts, given the subject of this paper – namely that the common law for individual employment contract is the civil law rules applicable to civil contracts. So in this paper does not refer to former commercial contracts, since the new Civil Code was achieved unification of private law matter – giving up the commercial contracts.

  6. Berlin and nuclear power. Courage to assume responsibility?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorr, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    On October 28, 2009, the Kerntechnische Gesellschaft e.V. (KTG) awarded to Professor Dr. Juergen Knorr its 32 nd honorary membership in recognition of his untiring commitment and his decades of work for the peaceful uses of, and research into, nuclear power in Germany. Between 1992 and 2006 the scientist, now retired, held the Nuclear Power Technology chair at the Technical University of Dresden and, temporarily, also headed the university's Institute for Power Technology at the same time. From 1990, Professor Knorr was a member of the Executive Board of the Kerntechnische Gesellschaft; he was KTG Chairman between 1993 and 2000. At the same time and beyond, until 2005, Professor Knorr was a member also of the Board of the Deutsches Atomforum. At the awarding ceremony in Berlin on October 28, KTG Chairman Dr. Helmut Blaesig welcomed the fact that, on the basis of the coalition agreement of CDU, CSU and FDP, the new federal government 'had clearly recognized the advantages of nuclear power.' It appreciated the safety of German plants and, in addition to the non-polluting characteristics due to CO 2 emissions saved and the security of supply, also the economic benefit of electricity generation from nuclear power. This supported the German economy in a situation which continued to be difficult. In his vote of thanks for the 32 nd honorary membership of KTG, Professor Knorr emphasized what he considered a key expectation of the re-evaluation of nuclear power by the new federal government: Creating framework conditions for a societal consensus that fair competition among conventional, renewable and nuclear power technologies will give rise to an optimum mix enabling sustainable development to be achieved. (orig.)

  7. About the complete loss of functions assumed by redundant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boaretto, Y.; Cayol, A.; Fourest, M.; Guimbail, H.

    1980-04-01

    Are to be taken into account situations resulting from loss of redundant safety systems. Two ways of approach were to be probed: evaluation of the failure probability and analysis of the consequences of those situations. The first way leads to improve reliability of concerned systems, the second way to set up mitigating means. Before TMI-2 occured, safety advices had already been issued about three kinds of situations: anticipated transients without scram, loss of ultimate heat sink, simultaneous loss of out-and inside power supplies. That, in some cases, something had to be done to improve safety showed the rightness of the concern. Next step is the study of the loss of both normal and emergency feedwater: The regulatory request has been issued on September 1979

  8. Technology Transfer Center to Assume Patenting and Licensing Responsibilities | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    The NCI Technology Transfer Center (TTC) is undergoing a reorganization that will bring patenting and licensing responsibilities to the Shady Grove and Frederick offices by October 2015. The reorganization is a result of an effort begun in 2014 by NIH to improve the organizational structure of technology transfer at NIH to meet the rapid rate of change within science, technology, and industry, and to better align the science and laboratory goals with the licensing and patenting process.

  9. Accurate or assumed: visual learning in children with ASD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trembath, David; Vivanti, Giacomo; Iacono, Teresa; Dissanayake, Cheryl

    2015-10-01

    Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are often described as visual learners. We tested this assumption in an experiment in which 25 children with ASD, 19 children with global developmental delay (GDD), and 17 typically developing (TD) children were presented a series of videos via an eye tracker in which an actor instructed them to manipulate objects in speech-only and speech + pictures conditions. We found no group differences in visual attention to the stimuli. The GDD and TD groups performed better when pictures were available, whereas the ASD group did not. Performance of children with ASD and GDD was positively correlated with visual attention and receptive language. We found no evidence of a prominent visual learning style in the ASD group.

  10. Beyond an assumed mother–child symbiosis in nutritional guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Annemette; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Holm, Lotte

    2014-01-01

    of the child and the interest and focus of the mother. The aim of this qualitative study was to explore mothers’ concerns and feeding practices in the context of everyday life. A total of 45 mothers with children either seven months old or 13 months old participated. The results showed that the need to find...... practical solutions for the whole family in a busy everyday life, to socialise the child into the family and society at large, and to create personal relief from the strain small children put on time and energy all served as socially acceptable reasons for knowingly departing from nutritional...

  11. Risks of Mortgage Loans in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Tichý

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Indebtedness through mortgage loans is dominant of household debt in the Czech Republic. The gradual increase in the household debt level may also entail increasing credit risk assumed by banks in connection with their credit exposure to this sector. The objective of the paper is to verify the risk and identify factors that affect the credit risk development in the Czech Republic. We look for correlation between the risk development and the interest rate development. Furthermore, we verify links between the risk and the development of real estate collateral value. The paper does confirm that there are real risks associated with the potential increase in interest rates. No significant risks have been confirmed with regard to the current development of the residential property value. The paper also strives to provide an identification and verification of risks stemming from individual banks’ internal processes. It features a detailed analysis of the internal factors (aspects comprising revenue, competition, as well as distribution.

  12. Children of Alcoholics/Addicts: Children at Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gover, F. Jill

    Children of alcoholics/addicts (COAs) are at a greater risk to develop alcohol and drug dependency, eating disorders, attention deficit disorders, stress-related illness, and suicidal behavior. Children become part of a conspiracy of silence by being told not to talk about the drug problem. The family members assume different roles which…

  13. 40 CFR 266.109 - Low risk waste exemption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... MANAGEMENT FACILITIES Hazardous Waste Burned in Boilers and Industrial Furnaces § 266.109 Low risk waste exemption. (a) Waiver of DRE standard. The DRE standard of § 266.104(a) does not apply if the boiler or... 99.9 percent destruction and removal efficiency. That is, assume that 0.1 percent of the mass weight...

  14. Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,

  15. Risk of the Burn-Out Syndrome in Caring Professions

    OpenAIRE

    Stecivová Fořtová, Irena

    2007-01-01

    This study (Risk of the Burnout Syndrome in Caring Professions) deals with the risk of the development of the Burnout Syndrome in Caring Professions, possible prevention and therapy. In the theoretical part the dissertation describes the Burnout Syndrome and the circumstances which lead to its beginning and development. In the practical part the dissertation describes the research on the frequency of symptoms of the Burnout Syndrome (enclosed is the questionnaire of the research) and assumed ...

  16. Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

    2001-01-01

    We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

  17. Risk Management and Insurance Decisions under Ambiguity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    I study the impact of ambiguity on insurance decisions and the optimality of insurance contracts. My tractable approach allows me to study the interaction between risk and ambiguity attitudes. When insurance decisions are made independently of other assets, for a given increase in wealth, both risk...... portfolio theory that assumes Subjective Expected Utility theory; however, it provides hints to a possible solution of the under-diversification puzzle of households. I also identify conditions under which more risk or ambiguity aversion decreases the demand for coinsurance. Additionally, I show...... a counterexample to a classical result in insurance economics where an insurance contract with straight deductible is dominated by a coinsurance contract. Finally, I find that a modified Borch rule characterizes the optimal insurance contract with bilateral risk and ambiguity attitudes and heterogeneity in beliefs....

  18. Neural computations underlying social risk sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina eLauharatanahirun

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Under standard models of expected utility, preferences over stochastic events are assumed to be independent of the source of uncertainty. Thus, in decision-making, an agent should exhibit consistent preferences, regardless of whether the uncertainty derives from the unpredictability of a random process or the unpredictability of a social partner. However, when a social partner is the source of uncertainty, social preferences can influence decisions over and above pure risk attitudes. Here, we compared risk-related hemodynamic activity and individual preferences for two sets of options that differ only in the social or non-social nature of the risk. Risk preferences in social and non-social contexts were systematically related to neural activity during decision and outcome phases of each choice. Individuals who were more risk averse in the social context exhibited decreased risk-related activity in the amygdala during non-social decisions, while individuals who were more risk averse in the non-social context exhibited the opposite pattern. Differential risk preferences were similarly associated with hemodynamic activity in ventral striatum at the outcome of these decisions. These findings suggest that social preferences, including aversion to betrayal or exploitation by social partners, may be associated with variability in the response of these subcortical regions to social risk.

  19. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  20. Multilevel joint competing risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

    2017-09-01

    Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

  1. Managing risk with renewable resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brower, M.C.; Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M.; Spinney, P.; Bell, K.

    1997-01-01

    One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. With assistance from Convergence Research, Charles River Associates, and the Tellus Institute, the authors tested this hypothesis by conducting an in-depth analysis of the risk implications of a decision to build a 1,600 MW wind power plant instead of a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant. (The two plants were assumed to have equal firm capacity.) The case study utility was Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The uncertain inputs included fuel prices, environmental regulations (specifically, CO 2 and air pollution controls), wind plant output, conventional plant availability, and load growth. Two different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation and an unregulated wholesale market characterized either by a power pool or fixed-price contracts of varying duration. Conclusions are striking: under traditional regulation, wind energy provides a net present-value risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh

  2. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Risk of nuclear damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzl, K.

    1997-01-01

    Following the opening and words of welcome by Mr. Fritz Unterpertinger (unit director at the Austrian Federal Ministry for the Environment, Youth and Family; BMUJF) Mrs Helga Kromp-Kolb (professor at the Institute for Meteorology and Physics of the University of Natural Resources Science Vienna) illustrated the risks of nuclear damage in Europe by means of a nuclear risk map. She explained that even from a scientific or technical point of view the assessment of risks arising from nuclear power stations was fraught with great uncertainties. Estimates about in how far MCAs (maximum credible accident) could still be controlled by safety systems vary widely and so do assessments of the probability of a core melt. But there is wide agreement in all risk assessments conducted so far that MCAs might occur within a - from a human point of view - conceivable number of years. In this connection one has to bear in mind that the occurrence of such a major accident - whatever its probability may be - could entail immense damage and the question arises whether or not it is at all justifiable to expose the general public to such a risk. Klaus Rennings (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany) dealt with the economic aspects of nuclear risk assessment. He explained that there are already a number of studies available aiming to assess the risk of damage resulting from a core melt accident in economic terms. As to the probability of occurrence estimates vary widely between one incident in 3,333 and 250,000 year of reactor operation. It is assumed, however, that a nuclear accident involving a core melt in Germany would probably exceed the damage caused by the Chernobyl accident. The following speakers addressed the legal aspects of risks associated with nuclear installations. Mrs Monika Gimpel-Hinteregger (professor at the Institute for Civil Law in Graz) gave an overview on the applicable Austrian law concerning third party liability in the field of nuclear energy

  4. Risk Factors in Pemphigus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülşen Tükenmez Demirc

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Design: There have been reports suggesting the involvement of environmental factors in the disease process of pemphigus. In this study, we aimed to find out the risk factors which could play role in the etiopathogenesis in our pemphigus patients.Material and method: A total of 42 patients (15 male and 27 female who were diagnosed as pemphigus with histopathological and direct immunoflurosence examinations in our clinic between the years 1998-2004, were interviewed for assessment of regarding with the subjects of the demographic properties, occupational groups, educational level, the number of pregnancies, stressfull life events, diet habits, smoking and alcohol consumption before the onset of the disease and the results were compared to 42 age and gender-matched controls with similar socioeconomic circumstances. Results: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were found to be statistically significant in pemphigus patients than in controls. Conclusion: Working in agriculture and livestock, multi-parity, absence of smoking and stressfull life events were assumed to play role in the etiopathogenesis and course of pemphigus.

  5. Corporate risk tolerance and capital allocation: A practical approach to implementing an exploration risk policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    Petroleum exploration companies are confronted regularly with the issue of allocating scarce capital among a set of available exploration projects, which are generally characterized by a high degree of financial risk and uncertainty. Commonly used methods for evaluating alternative investments consider the amount and timing of the monetary flows associated with a project and ignore the firm's ability or willingness to assume the business risk of the project. The preference-theory approach combines the traditional means of project valuation, net present value (NPV) analysis, with a decision-science-based approach to risk management. This integrated model provides a means for exploration firms to measure and to manage the financial risks associated with petroleum exploration, consistent with the firm's desired risk policy

  6. Risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowsky, Wolf R.; Kiel Univ.

    2009-01-01

    The study on risk communication identifies the deficiencies concerning empirical and theoretical knowledge on objective radiation hazards of the acting personnel (managers, politicians, jurists, etc.) in administrations, governmental agencies, and business management. This is especially problematic with respect to emergency planning and estimations concerning the public behavior. The incident/accident information in Germany is discussed based on the legislative regulations revealing the controversial perception between industry, legislative and public interest. Further topics include the meandering of the modern safety semantics and the public opinion concerning catastrophic risk.

  7. Minimizing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.

    1991-01-01

    This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability

  8. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  9. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  10. Operational risk in bank governance and control: How to save capital requirement through a risk transfer strategy. Evidences from a simulated case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enzo Scannella

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Operational risk management in banking has assumed such importance during the last decade. It has become increasingly important to measure, manage, and assess the impact of operational risk in the economics of banking. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how an effective operational risk management provides mitigating effects on capital-at-risk in banking. The paper provides evidences that an implementation of an operational risk transfer strategy reduces bank capital requirement. The paper adopts the loss distribution approach, the Monte Carlo simulation, and copula methodologies to estimate the regulatory capital and simulate an operational risk transfer strategy in banking.

  11. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  12. Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Perceived risk is a function of information, knowledge, values, and perception. This exercise is designed to illustrate that in many situations there is no correct answer, only best-alternative choices. The exercise has five parts in which students work in groups of five. (LZ)

  13. Petroleum tax systems and risk sharing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunnevaag, K.

    1992-12-01

    We have focused on four different measures of risk, well known from the finance literature, namely sensitivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and finally probability of a negative expected net present value (NPV). While the two first measures show that the state carries most of the risk, the latter measures show the opposite result. Whether or not the project is developed on a stand-alone or on-going basis, has a crucial impact on much risk the company carries. We have also looked at the risk development as a consequence of changes in tax regime. While the two first measures of risk (sensitivity and standard deviation) show an increase in risk for the company from the pre 1987 tax regime to the 1987-1991 tax regime, and a decrease in risk as a consequence of the last change, the opposite is the case when we look at the two last measures of risk, namely coefficient of variation and probability of a negative expected NPV. The same is the conclusion for the state, except that the sign of change is the opposite that of the company. This analysis could have been extended to include a risk concept based on the well known Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is relevant risk, or covariance risk. This model concludes that the return on any risky asset is a function of the correlation between the return on this asset and the market portfolio. In this case only the projects contribution to the portfolio risk should be accounted for. For the Norwegian state it is not unreasonable to assume that the risk contribution of a medium sized oil field to a big portfolio of fields and onshore activities only is marginal. For the national or international oil company it is somewhat less marginal, and for a company developing the field on a stand-alone basis it is substantial. 12 refs., 15 figs

  14. Spatial Distribution of Infection Risk of SARS Transmission in a Hospital Ward

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo; Nielsen, Peter V.

    2009-01-01

    The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted ......, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc....

  15. CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank. This kind of risk is generated by the crediting activity of the clients. To manage the credit risk, banks should identify the sources of the risk and to monitor their exposures. These activities mean a better knowledge of the existing and potential clients and their financial situations, by implementing new scoring methods. Also, to avoid the credit risk or to reduce losses, the banks could increase the value of guarantees required in regular credit activities, their periodically reassessment and the periodical analysis of the ability of customers to generate cash flows (for corporate clients and get constant income (for retail customers to provide repayment of credits. This paper aims to prevent and to analyze several measures of credit risk management and it assume that banks on the Romanian banking market and to identify some indices used for customers analysis.

  16. Risk attitudes in a changing environment: An evolutionary model of the fourfold pattern of risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallpress, Dave E W; Fawcett, Tim W; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M

    2015-04-01

    A striking feature of human decision making is the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, involving risk-averse behavior in situations of unlikely losses and likely gains, but risk-seeking behavior in response to likely losses and unlikely gains. Current theories to explain this pattern assume particular psychological processes to reproduce empirical observations, but do not address whether it is adaptive for the decision maker to respond to risk in this way. Here, drawing on insights from behavioral ecology, we build an evolutionary model of risk-sensitive behavior, to investigate whether particular types of environmental conditions could favor a fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. We consider an individual foraging in a changing environment, where energy is needed to prevent starvation and build up reserves for reproduction. The outcome, in terms of reproductive value (a rigorous measure of evolutionary success), of a one-off choice between a risky and a safe gain, or between a risky and a safe loss, determines the risk-sensitive behavior we should expect to see in this environment. Our results show that the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes may be adaptive in an environment in which conditions vary stochastically but are autocorrelated in time. In such an environment the current options provide information about the likely environmental conditions in the future, which affect the optimal pattern of risk sensitivity. Our model predicts that risk preferences should be both path dependent and affected by the decision maker's current state. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Accounting for inherent variability of growth in microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, H M; Coleman, M E

    2005-04-15

    Risk assessments of pathogens need to account for the growth of small number of cells under varying conditions. In order to determine the possible risks that occur when there are small numbers of cells, stochastic models of growth are needed that would capture the distribution of the number of cells over replicate trials of the same scenario or environmental conditions. This paper provides a simple stochastic growth model, accounting only for inherent cell-growth variability, assuming constant growth kinetic parameters, for an initial, small, numbers of cells assumed to be transforming from a stationary to an exponential phase. Two, basic, microbial sets of assumptions are considered: serial, where it is assume that cells transform through a lag phase before entering the exponential phase of growth; and parallel, where it is assumed that lag and exponential phases develop in parallel. The model is based on, first determining the distribution of the time when growth commences, and then modelling the conditional distribution of the number of cells. For the latter distribution, it is found that a Weibull distribution provides a simple approximation to the conditional distribution of the relative growth, so that the model developed in this paper can be easily implemented in risk assessments using commercial software packages.

  19. Risk Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Boutang , Jérôme; De Lara , Michel

    2016-01-01

    In a modern world increasingly perceived as uncertain, the mere purchase of a household cleaning product, or a seemingly harmless bottle of milk, conveys interrogations about potential hazards, from environmental to health impacts. The main purpose of this article is to suggest that risk could be considered as one of the major dimensions of choice for a wide range of concerns and markets, alongside aspiration/satisfaction, and tackled efficiently by mobilizing the recent findings of cognitive...

  20. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulkers, G.

    1988-01-01

    This file includes data on risks insured by the nuclear insurance pool in Belgium and on the Chernobyl accident covering injury, economic damage and compensation for the latter. Also included are the texts of the IAEA Conventions on Early Notification and on Assistance in Case of a Nuclear Accident as well as that of a Convention on long-distance transfrontier atmospheric pollution signed in Geneva [fr

  1. Toward effective ecological risk-management of refinery corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metzger, B.H.; Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.; Archibald, B.; Clark, J.; Cura, J.

    1995-01-01

    Cleanup of complex industrial sites, such as refineries, requires risk-based decision tools to ensure that environmentally protective remediation is consistent with current and future land use. However, conventional ecological risk assessment approaches are not well suited for complex industrial sites. Site risk assessments focus on hypothetical chemical risk assuming diverse and undisturbed ecosystems, rather than industrial and disturbed area conditions. In addition, they offer little guidance as to how to make timely and effective risk management decisions. An innovative methodology is proposed to assist industry and regulatory risk managers with rapid EcoRisk reconnaissance and cost-effective remedial decision-making at complex industrial sites. Phase 1 comprises a three-step risk screening of areas of ecological concern at the site, which integrates habitat quality characteristics and potential chemical hazards. It yields an ordering of areas as follows: areas of no significant risk; areas of potentially significant risk; and areas of likely significant risk. A decision rule is then applied to determine appropriate risk management action, including: no action; additional study; and remedial or management action. In Phase 2, additional study is conducted for areas that exhibit potentially significant risk so as to facilitate risk management. This methodology is currently being applied at the 1,300 acre, former Exxon Bayway Refinery in New Jersey

  2. Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive zeolite liners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The risk is estimated for the shipment of radioactive zeolite liners in support of the Zeolite Vitrification Demonstration Program currently underway at Pacific Northwest Laboratory under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy. This program will establish the feasibility of zeolite vitrification as an effective means of immobilizing high-specific-activity wastes. In this risk assessment, it is assumed that two zeolite liners, each loaded around July 1, 1981 to 60,000 Ci, will be shipped by truck around January 1, 1982. However, to provide a measure of conservatism, each liner is assumed to initially hole 70,000 Ci, with the major radioisotopes as follow: 90 Sr = 3000 Ci, 134 Cs = 7000 Ci, 137 Cs = 60,000 Ci. Should shipment take place with essentially no delay after initial loading (regardless of loading date), the shipment loading would be only 2.7% higher than that for the assumed six-month delay. This would negligibly affect the overall risk. As a result of this risk assessment, it is concluded that the transport of the radioactive zeolite liners from TMI to PNL by truck can be conducted at an insignificant level of risk to the public

  3. Risks of tobacco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secondhand smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks; Nicotine - risks ... tobacco that are known to cause cancer. HEALTH RISKS OF SMOKING OR USING SMOKELESS TOBACCO Knowing the ...

  4. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  5. Real and perceived risks of medical radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendee, W.R.

    1983-01-01

    After considering all the evidence related to the health effects of exposure to low levels of radiation, it is apparent that the risk is immeasurably small to any single person in a population exposed to small amounts of radiation. However, multiplying this immeasurably small estimate of risk by very large populations yields numbers that seem to imply that significant health effects (cancer, malformations, genetic effects) occur following exposure to small quantities of radiation. Although many advisory groups have cautioned against this procedure and conclusion, both continue to be used by some scientists and political action groups. In a public opinion poll conducted by Decision Research, Inc. of Eugene, Oregon, three groups were asked to rank the relative risks of various societal activities. Two of the three groups ranked nuclear power as the most hazardous of all societal activities, with a risk factor greater than that for smoking, automobiles, handguns and alcohol. Actually, nuclear power is the least hazardous of all 30 of the activities included in the poll. It is a conservative posture and probably a wise course of action to assume that exposure to any amount of radiation carries with it some element of risk. For example, requests for x-ray studies and nuclear medicine procedures should always be accompanied by an appreciation of the possibility of risk to the patient and to radiological personnel. At the same time, this element of risk should be placed in a realistic perspective by comparing it with other risks we assume every day

  6. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-04-01

    Risk from retired surplus facilities has always been assumed to be low at the Hanford Site as the facilities are inactive and have few potentials for causing an offsite hazardous material release. However,the fatal accident that occurred in the spring of 1992 in which an employee fell through a deteriorated roof at the 105-F Reactor Building has raised the possibility that retired facilities represent a greater risk than was originally assumed. Therefore, Westinghouse Hanford Company and the US Department of Energy management have determined that facility risk management strategies and programmatic plans should be reevaluated to assure risks are identified and appropriate corrective action plans are developed. To evaluate risk management strategies, accurate risk information about the current and projected condition of the facilities must be developed. This work procedure has been created to address the development of accurate and timely risk information. By using the evaluation results in this procedure, it will be possible to create a prioritized baseline for managing facility risk until all retired surplus facilities are demolished

  7. Safety methodology and risk targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazimi, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    In assessing the potential safety concerns of fusion, the experience from other energy sources lead to a variety of safety assessment approaches. The available approaches are: (1) The maximum possible accident approach; (2) The maximum credible accident approach; (3) The probabilistic total risk assessment. In the first approach, the mechanistic development of the events leading to the safety concern is ignored. Instead, the total radioactivity of the plant is assumed accessible to the public. Such an approach is obviously conservative and unrealistic. In the second approach a selection is made among the most severe of the possible accidents, and the progression of the accident is modeled as mechanistically as possible. In this case, the passive and active accident mitigation capabilities of the plant are taken into consideration. The result is expected to be that none or only a fraction of the total radioactivity can be released to the public. The adverse effect of this approach is to concentrate attention on a particular accident class, and perhaps not allow for other classes, a judgement that may later become undesirable. The probabilistic risk assessment requires the safety analysts to consider all classes of accidents and estimate both the probabilities of their occurrences and their consequences. Thus, the plant design in fact is subjected to a thorough investigation and the impact of alterations in design can be reflected in the total risk estimate. The disadvantage of this approach lies in the absence of well defined acceptable risk criteria as well as the large effect of public perception factors on the accepted risk. This paper will review the impact of application of these approaches in determination of the level of protection needed against activation product release to the atmosphere. (author)

  8. Radiation risks : the ethics of health protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxey, M.N.

    1988-01-01

    Since the inception of commercial uses of nuclear technology, radiation protection standards established by regulatory agencies have reflected moral concerns based on two assumptions: (1) that the linear, zero-threshold hypothesis derives from scientific data in radiobiology which are virtually conclusive; (2) it is morally better for public health protection to assume that any radiation exposure, no matter how small, has some harmful effect which can and ought to be prevented. In the past few years these beliefs and related assumptions have received closer scrutiny, revealing hidden reasons for regulatory selection of radiation risks as objects of paramount ethical concern, with the result that greater risks to health have escaped comparison and mitigation. Based on this scrutiny this brief paper explores two questions: Are presupposed assumptions ethically justified on grounds of scientific evidence and ethical consistency? and should moral objections claiming to invalidate comparative risk assessments be accepted or rejected?

  9. Nonparametric predictive pairwise comparison with competing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2014-01-01

    In reliability, failure data often correspond to competing risks, where several failure modes can cause a unit to fail. This paper presents nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for pairwise comparison with competing risks data, assuming that the failure modes are independent. These failure modes could be the same or different among the two groups, and these can be both observed and unobserved failure modes. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. The focus is on the lower and upper probabilities for the event that the lifetime of a future unit from one group, say Y, is greater than the lifetime of a future unit from the second group, say X. The paper also shows how the two groups can be compared based on particular failure mode(s), and the comparison of the two groups when some of the competing risks are combined is discussed

  10. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  11. Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

  12. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  13. Risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1989-01-01

    Conflicts on technical issues frequently involve disagreements between the public and the technologists. This paper summarizes the major characteristics of three groups of technologists and four groups of the public which lead to many of the disagreements. To advance the mores of making decisions involving complex science or technology, technologists should develop an understanding of what information is needed for decisions, of the need for two-way communication with the public, and to become responsible for the accuracy and honesty of risk communication messages

  14. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  15. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  16. Proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carchon, R.

    1998-09-01

    The report gives an overview of different aspects related to safeguards of fissile materials. Existing treaties including the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Tlatelolco and the Rarotonga Treaties are discussed. An overview of safeguards systems for the control of fissile materials as well as the role of various authorities is given. An overall overview of proliferation risks, the physical protection of fissile materials and the trade in fissile materials is given. Finally, the status in problem countries and de facto nuclear weapon states is discussed

  17. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  18. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodricks, J.V.

    1992-01-01

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  19. Volcanic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs

  20. Lack of coordination of nonverbal behaviour between patients and interviewers as a potential risk factor to depression recurrence : vulnerability accumulation in depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouhuys, AL; Sam, MM

    2000-01-01

    Background: Coordination of nonverbal behaviour during interactions is a prerequisite for satisfactory relationships. Lack of coordination may form a risk factor for depression. The 'vulnerability-accumulation hypothesis' assumes that vulnerability to recurrence of depression will increase with

  1. Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

  2. A model for the optimal risk management of (farm) firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    Current methods of risk management focus on efficiency and do not provide operational answers to the basic question of how to optimise and balance the two objectives, maximisation of expected income and minimisation of risk. This paper uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to derive...... an operational criterion for the optimal risk management of firms. The criterion assumes that the objective of the firm manager is to maximise the market value of the firm and is based on the condition that the application of risk management tools has a symmetric effect on the variability of income around...... the mean. The criterion is based on the expected consequences of risk management on relative changes in the variance of return on equity and expected income. The paper demonstrates how the criterion may be used to evaluate and compare the effect of different risk management tools, and it illustrates how...

  3. From preparedness to risk: from the singular risk of nuclear war to the plurality of all hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deville, Joe; Guggenheim, Michael

    2017-08-17

    Debates on risk have largely assumed risk to be the outcome of calculative practices. There is a related assumption that risk objects come only in one form, and that the reason not everything can be transformed into a risk is because of the difficulties in calculating and creating universal quantitative comparisons. In this article, building on recent studies of preparedness that have broadened understandings of risk, we provide an analysis of how preparedness measures might themselves produce risk, in particular through risk's durable instantiation, or what we call 'concretization'. Our empirical focus is on how government agencies in two countries shifted their attention from the risk of nuclear attack during the Cold War to an all hazards approach to preparedness. Comparing the mid- to late-twentieth century histories of the UK and Switzerland, we show that both countries shifted from focusing from a single risk to plural risks. This shift cannot be explained by a change in prevailing calculative practices, or by the fact that the risks changed historically. Instead, it is driven by historically specific changes in how risks are produced and reproduced in relation to how materializations of risk operate over time. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

  4. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  5. Radiation risks and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansweyer, C.J.M.

    1981-01-01

    The differences in acceptance of risks of different nature (industrial, in the home, on the road, use of drugs, alcohol, tobacco, coffee or other food stuffs) by the public are compared on the basis of life expectancy values of different categories of people. The safety of radiologic work for both personnel and patients is considered in connection with the basic principles underlying the ICRP recommendations. A computation of the effective body dose equivalent for a mean medical X-ray examination and a nuclear in vivo examination is given. (Auth.)

  6. I trust not therefore it must be risky: Determinants of the perceived risks of disclosing personal data for e-government transactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beldad, Ardion Daroca; de Jong, Menno D.T.; Steehouder, M.F.

    2011-01-01

    Although it is plausible to assume that the risks of disclosing personal data online are inexorably more prevalent in transactions with commercial organizations than with government organizations, such risks can also thrive in exchanges with the latter. While it is argued that risk perceptions

  7. Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

    1996-02-15

    To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

  8. Biofilm Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wirtanen, Gun Linnea; Salo, Satu

    2016-01-01

    This chapter on biofilm risks deals with biofilm formation of pathogenic microbes, sampling and detection methods, biofilm removal, and prevention of biofilm formation. Several common pathogens produce sticky and/or slimy structures in which the cells are embedded, that is, biofilms, on various...... surfaces in food processing. Biofilms of common foodborne pathogens are reviewed. The issue of persistent and nonpersistent microbial contamination in food processing is also discussed. It has been shown that biofilms can be difficult to remove and can thus cause severe disinfection and cleaning problems...... in food factories. In the prevention of biofilm formation microbial control in process lines should both limit the number of microbes on surfaces and reduce microbial activity in the process. Thus the hygienic design of process equipment and process lines is important in improving the process hygiene...

  9. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nathwani, J.S.

    1993-01-01

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  10. Risks of migration from traditional metallic teapots

    OpenAIRE

    Federal Agency for the Safety of the Food Chain

    2011-01-01

    Assuming realistic consumption scenarios (4 cups of natural tea or lemon tea per day, 15 minutes infusion) a daily intake of 1.7 to 320 μg of lead per kg bw was estimated for a person weighing 60 kg. Based on the EFSA established BMDL values (EFSA, 2010), this intake corresponds to a Margin of Exposure (MoE) lower to much lower than 1, indicating serious potential risks for public health. In addition, from subsequent experiments the exposure to lead from these teapots seem...

  11. IL-1ra anti-inflammatory cytokine polymorphism is associated with risk of gastric cancer and chronic gastritis in a Brazilian population, but the TNF-β pro-inflammatory cytokine is not.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, J Garcia; Duarte, M Cristina; Silva, A Elizabete

    2012-07-01

    Genetic polymorphisms in genes that codify inflammatory cytokines have been associated with gastric carcinogenesis. This study evaluated polymorphisms IL-1RN VNTR and TNFB+252A/G in a population from Southeast Brazil with regard to the risk of chronic gastritis and gastric cancer and the presence of an association of gastric lesions with risk factors such as gender, age, smoking, drinking and Helicobacter pylori infection. In this case-control study, polymorphism at IL-1RN VNTR was investigated using the allele-specific polymerase chain reaction method, while the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism technique was used to identify the TNFB+252A/G genotype in 675 Brazilian individuals [229 with chronic gastritis (CG), 200 with gastric cancer (GC) and 246 healthy individuals as controls (C)]. Multiple logistic regression analysis (log-additive, dominant, and recessive models) have not showed association of the genotype frequencies for the SNP TNFB + 252A/G with risk of CG or GC. However, as for IL-1RN VNTR it was observed significant differences in all three analysis models, with higher values of OR in recessive model, both in the GC group (OR = 3.04, 95% CI = 1.41-6.56, p cancer and precancerous lesions in the Southeast Brazilian population, reinforcing the importance of host genetic factors in the susceptibility to gastric cancer and the participation of cytokines in both the inflammation and the carcinogenic process.

  12. Management of construction cost contingency covering upside and downside risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Adel Eldosouky

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Many contractors are of the opinion that adding contingency funds to the tender price of a project may lead to loss of the tender. This research is a trial to put an end to this incorrect opinion. A more mature attitude to risk would recognize that contingency exists to be spent in order to avoid or minimize threats and to exploit or maximize opportunities. This research proposes an approach for determination and monitoring of Cost Contingency Reserve (CCR for a project. Control of CCR is interfaced with Earned Value Management. Application to a real project is carried out. Post-mitigation simulations show that value of CCR is 2.88% of project cost but there is a potential saving due to opportunities. The project is monitored after eight months from its assumed start date with one assumed emergent risk. The final results are as follows: CCR is enough to cover project current and residual threats and the contractor has a considerable amount of money that will be transferred to his margin at project closure assuming the project will not be exposed to additional emergent risks. A contractor can balance project upside risks and its downsides to increase his chance to win tender of the project.

  13. Credit Risk Versus Performance in the Romanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian banking sector, predominantly governed by the capital of foreign banks, is, as well as other international banking sectors, under the sign of the necessary balance that should exist between risk and performance. This is a result of banks trying to take risks that they can control, given that they need to generate financial results that are satisfactory for all categories of bank creditors, namely shareholders, depositors and other lenders. In this paper, I wanted to analyze the risk situation assumed by the main banks in the system versus the performance gained in recent years. This article is part of a wider research, so I will refer only to the main risk assumed by a bank, namely the credit risk, I will highlight the evolution of the indicators of this risk, so that I can finally analyze their degree of correlation with indicators for measuring bank performance. The situation of other financial risks in banking activity will be addressed in other works.

  14. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  15. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turvey, F.J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

  16. Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turvey, F J [Radiological Protection Inst. of Ireland (Ireland)

    1996-10-01

    This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of `tolerable` risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid.

  17. Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yijun

    The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

  18. Risk of nanotechnology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louda, Petr; Bakalova, Totka

    2014-05-01

    Nano-this and nano-that. These days it seems you need the prefix "nano" for products or applications if you want to be either very trendy or incredibly scary. This "nano-trend" has assumed "mega" proportions. Vague promises of a better life are met by equally vague, generalized fears about a worse future. These debates have some aspects in common: the subject is complex and not easy to explain; there is no consensus on risks and benefits. - A particular problem with nanotechnology lies in the huge gap between the public perception of what the hype promises and the scientific and commercial reality of what the technology actually delivers today and in the near future. There is nanoscience, which is the study of phenomena and manipulation of material at the nanoscale, in essence an extension of existing sciences into the nanoscale. Then there is nanotechnology, which is the design, characterization, production and application of structures, devices and systems by controlling shape and size at the nanoscale. Nanotechnology should really be called nanotechnologies: There is no single field of nanotechnology. The term broadly refers to such fields as biology, physics or chemistry, any scientific field really, or a combination thereof, that deals with the deliberate and controlled manufacturing of nanostructures. In addressing the health and environmental impact of nanotechnology we need to differentiate two types of nanostructures: (1) Nanocomposites, nanostructured surfaces and nanocomponents (electronic, optical, sensors etc.), where nanoscale particles are incorporated into a substance, material or device ("fixed" nanoparticles); and (2) "free" nanoparticles, where at some stage in production or use individual nanoparticles of a substance are present. There are four entry routes for nanoparticles into the body: they can be inhaled, swallowed, absorbed through skin or be deliberately injected during medical procedures. Once within the body they are highly mobile and

  19. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  20. Light water reactor accidents - is there really a major public risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levenson, M [Bechtel Power Corp., San Francisco, CA (USA)

    1983-04-01

    During the past decade, a major mismatch has developed between the actual public risk from nuclear power and the public perception of that risk. Extensive analyses have been performed on the probability of accidents at nuclear power plants, but such analyses have used assumed consequences rather than those that have been scientifically derived. The assumed consequences have been overstated and needlessly scare the public or lead to unwarranted evacuations. The 40 years of experience in research, development and testing, and the history of actual accidents, provide a sound basis for assessment-a basis that has not been utilized.

  1. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  2. Does radiation risk exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passchier, W.

    1996-01-01

    Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

  3. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  4. Risk from environmental chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

    1982-01-01

    The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

  5. Estimating radiation-induced cancer risk using MVK two-stage model for carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Aoki, Y.

    1993-01-01

    Based on the carcinogenesis model as proposed by Moolgavkar et al., time-dependent relative risk models were derived for projecting the time variation in excess relative risk. If it is assumed that each process is described by time-independent linear dose-response relationship, the time variation in excess relative risk is influenced by the parameter related with the promotion process. The risk model based carcinogenesis theory would play a marked role in estimating radiation-induced cancer risk in constructing a projection model or transfer model

  6. Managing risks during the construction of a power generation facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loulakis, M.C.

    1992-01-01

    The construction of a power generation facility is a substantial undertaking that involves considerable risks to all parties involved. While contractors are accustomed to dealing with risks, construction owners are typically more naive about not only the risks they are assuming in the construction of a project, but also about the role they play on the project itself. Owners and developers of power facilities must understand at the outset that their role during the construction of a project is as integral to the success of the project as that of the designer and contractor. In addition, owners should also understand that there are virtually no risks on a construction project that cannot be shifted among the contracting parties as part of the business deal. Consequently, an owner may contractually be assuming the risks of (1) unusually severe weather, (2) unexpected subsurface conditions, (3) strikes at the turbine supplier's plant or (4) changes in law - as well as the increases in price and delays to project completion associated with such risks. In light of this, a prudent owner will evaluate more than just whether there is sufficient financing to complete the construction of a contemplated project. Prudent owners will conduct a risk management review of the project structure and the contracting terms, with the primary focus being (1) the identification and analysis of the most significant risks faced, (2) a determination of how such risks can be either mitigated or eliminated, and (3) the assessment of the financial exposure to the owner should the potential risk become a reality. This paper will present the framework that owners and developers of power generation projects can use in undertaking such a risk management review

  7. Screening mammography. A risk versus risk decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritenour, E.R.; Hendee, W.R.

    1989-01-01

    The potential risk of a radiologic procedure often is compared with the potential benefit of the procedure. While risk vs. benefit analysis has been useful as a step toward increased communication and understanding among radiologists, referring physicians, and the general public, it has the disadvantage that risk and benefit are fundamentally different quantities. Hence, their juxtaposition for purposes of comparison presents contextual difficulties. In this article, the concept is presented of comparing the risk of doing a procedure with the risk of choosing not to do the procedure. An example of risk vs. risk analysis of screening mammography for women over the age of 50 is given, with the conclusion that the risk of having yearly mammograms is less than 1/10 the risk of early death caused by failure to diagnose breast cancer by x-ray mammography. This approach to risk analysis would yield interesting data for examinations that are part of more complicated diagnostic pathways.19 references

  8. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  9. COORDINATES OF A RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRU OLTEANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by moving of management profit analysis by risk intermediation, respectively the transition from managing profit to risk-return relationship management. Such trend assumes the obligation of participants to identify objectives and expected benefits of the project on the basis of the strategies laid-down, the elements of risk management policies, in conjunction with the indication of the most negative scenarios which they may provide. This activity must take into consideration the process of obtaining and combining human, financial, physical and information resources in order to accomplish the primary goal of the proposed and wanted project by a certain segment of population. Project participants are directed to evaluate their own activities in terms of revenues and risks from the business access, opportunity, operating mode, as well as the limitations and boundaries on certain sides of activity. The paper focuses on the analysis and evaluation of incomes and risks, on simulations to streamline the activities and the determination of the optimal model of project choice. Also, the paper treats the risks that can be taken over by the sponsors, especially those related to implied guaranties, even implied guaranties.

  10. A New Look at Risk-Taking: Using a Translational Approach to Examine Risk-Taking Behavior on the Balloon Analogue Risk Task

    OpenAIRE

    DeMartini, Kelly S.; Leeman, Robert F.; Corbin, William R.; Toll, Benjamin A.; Fucito, Lisa M.; Lejuez, Carl W.; O’Malley, Stephanie S.

    2014-01-01

    Models of risk-taking typically assume that the variability of outcomes is important in the likelihood of making a risky choice. In an animal model of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), within-session variability, or the coefficient of variability (CV), was found to be a novel predictor of behavior (Jentsch et al., 2010). Human studies have not investigated how BART performance differs when using the CV versus a traditional BART measure (e.g. number of pumps). This study sought to determi...

  11. Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Moffett

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.

  12. Risk Management Program Application for the Component Test Capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephanie L. Austad; Jeffrey D. Bryan

    2009-01-01

    This paper documents the application of the risk management program requirements to Component Test Capability (CTC) Project activities for each CTC alternative. In particular, DOE O 413.3A, 'Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets,' and DOE G 413.3-7, 'Risk Management Guide for Project Management,' will apply in the event that Alternative 4, Single, Standalone Component Test Facility (CTF), is selected and approved. As such, it is advisable to begin planning to meet the associated Department of Energy (DOE) requirements and guidance as early in the acquisition process as practicable. This white paper is intended to assist in this planning and to support associated decision-making activities. Nontechnical risks associated with each alternative will be identified to support the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) CTC alternatives analysis. Technical risks are assumed to be addressed through the Technology Development Risk Management modeling process and are inherent to the alternatives

  13. Pricing Chinese Convertible Bonds with Dynamic Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.

  14. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  15. Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.

    2015-12-01

    In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

  16. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  17. The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danaei, Goodarz; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Lin, John K.; Cowan, Melanie J.; Finucane, Mariel M.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Riley, Leanne M.; Lu, Yuan; Rao, Mayuree; Ezzati, Majid; Aamodt, Geir; Abdeen, Ziad; Abdella, Nabila A.; Rahim, Hanan F. Abdul; Addo, Juliet; Aekplakorn, Wichai; Afifi, Mustafa M.; Agabiti-Rosei, Enrico; Aguilar Salinas, Carlos A.; Agyemang, Charles; Ali, Mohamed M.; Al-Nsour, Mohannad; Al-Nuaim, Abdul R.; Ambady, Ramachandran; Aro, Pertti; Azizi, Fereidoun; Barbagallo, Carlo M.; Barbieri, Marco Antonio M.; Barceló, Alberto; Barreto, Sandhi M.; Barros, Henrique; Bautista, Leonelo E.; Benetos, Athanase; Bjerregaard, Peter; Björkelund, Cecilia; Bo, Simona; Bobak, Martin; Bonora, Enzo; Bontha, Babu V.; Botana, Manuel A.; Bovet, Pascal; Breckenkamp, Juergen; Breteler, Monique M.; Broda, Grazyna; Brown, Ian J.; Bursztyn, Michael; Cabrera de León, Antonio; Campos, Hannia

    2013-01-01

    It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI,

  18. Enterprise risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

  19. Linking Risk Management Practices and Strategies to Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Wieland, Andreas; Wallenburg, Carl Marcus

    2014-01-01

    Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich. This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively. Purpose – The effects of supply chain risk management (SCRM) on the performance of a supply chain remain unexplored. It is assumed that SCRM helps supply chains to cope with...

  20. The risk of pedestrian collisions with peripheral visual field loss

    OpenAIRE

    Peli, Eli; Apfelbaum, Henry; Berson, Eliot L.; Goldstein, Robert B.

    2016-01-01

    Patients with peripheral field loss complain of colliding with other pedestrians in open-space environments such as shopping malls. Field expansion devices (e.g., prisms) can create artificial peripheral islands of vision. We investigated the visual angle at which these islands can be most effective for avoiding pedestrian collisions, by modeling the collision risk density as a function of bearing angle of pedestrians relative to the patient. Pedestrians at all possible locations were assumed...

  1. P2P Lending Risk Contagion Analysis Based on a Complex Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes two major channels of P2P lending risk contagion in China—direct risk contagion between platforms and indirect risk contagion with other financial organizations as the contagion medium. Based on this analysis, the current study constructs a complex network model of P2P lending risk contagion in China and performs dynamics analogue simulations in order to analyze general characteristics of direct risk contagion among China’s online P2P lending platforms. The assumed conditions are that other financial organizations act as the contagion medium, with variations in the risk contagion characteristics set under the condition of significant information asymmetry in Internet lending. It is indicated that, compared to direct risk contagion among platforms, both financial organizations acting as the contagion medium and information asymmetry magnify the effect of risk contagion. It is also found that the superposition of media effects and information asymmetry is more likely to magnify the risk contagion effect.

  2. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  3. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

  4. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

  5. Downside Variance Risk Premium

    OpenAIRE

    Feunou, Bruno; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Okou, Cedric

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new decomposition of the variance risk premium in terms of upside and downside variance risk premia. The difference between upside and downside variance risk premia is a measure of skewness risk premium. We establish that the downside variance risk premium is the main component of the variance risk premium, and that the skewness risk premium is a priced factor with significant prediction power for aggregate excess returns. Our empirical investigation highlights the positive and s...

  6. Implications of radiation risk for practical dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    Radiobiological experiments with animals and cells have led to an expectation that the risks of cancer and hereditary effects are reduced at low doses and low dose rates of low LET radiation. Risk estimates derived from human exposures at high doses and dose rates usually contain an allowance for low dose effects in comparison with high dose effects, but no allowance may have been made for low dose rate effects. Although there are reasons for thinking that leukaemia risks may possibly have been underestimated, the total cancer risk assumed by ICRP for occupational exposures is reasonably realistic. For practical dosimetry the primary dose concepts and limits have to be translated into secondary quantities that are capable of practical realisation and measurement, and which will provide a stable and robust system of metrology. If the ICRP risk assumptions are approximately correct, it is extremely unlikely that epidemiological studies of occupational exposures will detect the influence of radiation. Elaboration of dosimetry and dose recording for epidemiological purposes is therefore unjustified except possibly in relation to differences between high and low LET radiations. (author)

  7. Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndindjock, Roger; Gedeon, Jude; Mendis, Shanthi; Paccaud, Fred; Bovet, Pascal

    2011-04-01

    To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol ≥ 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (≥ 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication. A total CV risk of ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted. Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.

  8. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  9. Risk and benefit associated with preventive mammography examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladar, M.; Nikodemova, D.

    1998-01-01

    The risk of mammographic examination was estimated. It is concluded that a mean glandular dose (MGD) of 1 mGy per exposure can be associated with a risk of 1 radiation-induced carcinoma per less than 100 positive detected by the preventive examination. The variability of actual MGD at various hospitals can be quite large. Although the majority of measurements were made on phantoms it is assumed that the national MGD average will exceed 3 mGy for the average breast size of 55 mm

  10. Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

    1992-01-01

    The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

  11. What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ravi Rajan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

  12. What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

  13. Societal risk is not just the sum of individually perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, H.J.M.; Gjoerup, H.L.

    1983-01-01

    The role of science in a democratic system is to provide the public with fundamental facts on which decisions can be based. In the present case, this means calculating a ''true'' risk as the most probable future outcome (mean future harm) based on previous experience and assuming linearity between harm and the expected number of casualties. Sociology tells us that individually perceived risks will often be at variance with ''true'' risks. This discrepancy is most marked at low probabilities, which people tend to overweight. Risk perception is also influenced by the mass media. Public authorities should not yield to obviously views and modify a rational scientific approach to risk assessment. Just as individual paranoia is regarded as a disease, so should society be able to reject mass paranoia as a rational basis of risk assessment. If people believe they are being threatened by the nuclear power plant and all the available scientific evidence tells us that they are not, then the public authorities should not accept that fear as reasonable. People must always be able to distinguish between an attempt to minimize actual harm and an attempt to minimize perceived harm. Both are a part of a political reality, but should be presented by themselves not mixed together

  14. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  15. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  16. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  17. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  18. Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanju Zhou

    Full Text Available This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

  19. Stackelberg game of buyback policy in supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-averse supplier based on CVaR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yanju; Chen, Qian; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Zongrun

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers a decentralized supply chain in which a single supplier sells a perishable product to a single retailer facing uncertain demand. We assume that the supplier and the retailer are both risk averse and utilize Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk measure method which is popularized in financial risk management, to estimate their risk attitude. We establish a buyback policy model based on Stackelberg game theory under considering supply chain members' risk preference and get the expressions of the supplier's optimal repurchase price and the retailer's optimal order quantity which are compared with those under risk neutral case. Finally, a numerical example is applied to simulate that model and prove related conclusions.

  20. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  1. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  2. What do patients in rheumatologic care know about the risks of NSAIDs?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ornbjerg, Lykke; Andersen, Henning Boje; Kryger, Peter

    2008-01-01

    drugs than the prescribed drugs (P = 0.002, Mann-Whitney). Factors recognized to increase the risk of side effects were: higher dose (81% of patients), long-term treatment (68%), previous side effects (57%), combination of NSAIDs (49%), and old age (31 %). Twenty-three percent assumed that acetaminophen...

  3. Stewardship and risk: An empirically grounded theory of organic fish farming in Scotland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Georgakopoulos, G.; Ciancanelli, P.; Coulson, A.; Kaldis, P.E.

    2008-01-01

    It has long been assumed ownership gives farmers incentives to act as stewards of the land. On this basis, quasi-property rights are granted to fish farmers to encourage them to manage risks to the aquatic environment. This paper offers an empirically grounded theorisation of fish farmers’

  4. Androgenic alopecia is not useful as an indicator of men at high risk of prostate cancer.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, R.G.H.M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Vermeulen, S.; Heijer, M. den; Oort, I.M. van; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Androgens are assumed to play a central role in the pathophysiology of both prostate cancer (PC) and androgenic alopecia (AA). A correlation between the two phenotypes may be relevant for identification of men at high risk of PC. We evaluated the association between AA at different ages

  5. Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Drought Risk Perception: Objective Factors, Personal Circumstances and Social Influence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duinen, Rianne; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Petrus A.T.M.; van der Veen, A.

    2014-01-01

    Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on

  6. A multi-scale energy demand model suggests sharing market risks with intelligent energy cooperatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Methenitis (Georgios); M. Kaisers (Michael); J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we propose a multi-scale model of energy demand that is consistent with observations at a macro scale, in our use-case standard load profiles for (residential) electric loads. We employ the model to study incentives to assume the risk of volatile market prices for

  7. Homocysteine determinants and the evidence to what extent homocysteine determines the risk of coronary heart disease.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bree, A. de; Verschuren, W.M.M.; Kromhout, D.; Kluijtmans, L.A.J.; Blom, H.J.

    2002-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), especially coronary heart disease (CHD), are the most important causes of death in industrialized countries. Increased concentrations of total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) have been associated with an increased risk of CHD. Assuming that this relation is causal, a lower

  8. Bovine tuberculosis and its risk factors among dairy cattle herds in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Simple random sampling technique was applied to select dairy herds from the available sample frame. A total of. 1279 cattle were ... Statistical significance was assumed if the confidence interval (CI) did not include one among .... Table 3: Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis for potential herd risk factors at ...

  9. Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David. Rizzo

    2010-01-01

    It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

  10. Cultural differences of a dual-motivation model on health risk behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ohtomo, S.; Hirose, Y.; Midden, C.J.H.

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the cultural differences of a dual-motivation model of unhealthy risk behaviour in the Netherlands and Japan. Our model assumes dual motivations involved in unhealthy eating behaviour, a behavioural willingness that leads behaviour unintentionally or subconsciously and a

  11. Improving flood risk communication by focusing on prevention-focused motivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

    2014-01-01

    This article proposes an approach to flood risk communication that gives particular emphasis to the distinction between prevention and promotion motivation. According to E. Tory Higgins, the promotion system and the prevention system are assumed to coexist in every person, but one or the other may

  12. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  13. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  14. Bank Risk-taking, Country Financial Capacity and Bank Bailouts in Crisis Periods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiozer, Rafael Felipe; Vilarins, Ramon S.; Mourad, Frederico A.

    , in normal times, rescue guarantees to large financial institutions distort competition in the sector and increase the risk of the unprotected institutions. Moreover, unprotected banks decrease their risk exposures faster than protected banks after the eruption of the 2007-2008 crisis, particularly......This paper analyzes the impact of government bailout policies on the risk of the banking sector in OECD countries between 2005 and 2013. Consistent with previous literature, we verify that financial institutions with high bailout expectations assume higher risks than others do. We also find that...

  15. The only way is up: Risk factors, protective factors, and compensation in dyslexia

    OpenAIRE

    van Viersen, S.

    2017-01-01

    Dyslexia is a specific learning disability that affects approximately 4-7% of primary school children and around 12% of secondary school students. Over the years, knowledge about identification, diagnosis, and intervention of dyslexia has become more advanced. Recent models of developmental disorders assume that dyslexia results from a complex interplay between risk and protective factors. However, research has so far mainly focused on risk factors for dyslexia. Important issues still exist r...

  16. Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

    OpenAIRE

    Han Bleichrodt; José María Abellán-Perpiñan; JoséLuis Pinto; Ildefonso Méndez-Martínez

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores inconsistencies that occur in utility measurement under risk when expected utility theory is assumed and the contribution that prospect theory and some other generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these inconsistencies. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studied, prospect theory was the most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expe...

  17. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  18. Risk communication between Experts and the Public: Perceptions and Intentions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, Lennart; Verhost, Philippe; Bouzon, Arlette

    2002-01-01

    This paper develops a conceptual and theoretical analysis of risk communication in cases where experts and the public have widely divergent views about the size of a risk: experts find it very small but some members of the public have an opposite view. Other members of the public agree with the experts. Applications are chosen from the risk management problems inhere in the handling of spent nuclear fuel. It is pointed out that the conflicting views have very different bases.The role of trust is analyzed and while it is a crucial issue, it is much broader than what has usually been assumed. Trust refers not only to social trust (i.e. trust in experts or authorities/corporation) but also to basic notions regarding knowledge and science. In a communication situation, the communicated position with regard to risk seems may not be perceived correctly by any of the parties, and positions tend to be entrenched

  19. Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive zeolite liners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallucci, R.H.V.

    1982-01-01

    The accident risk is estimated for the shipment of two zeolite liners containing radioactive cesium and strontium. Each liner, assumed to hold 68,200 Ci and sealed inside a CNS 1 to 13C, type-B shipping cask, is transported by truck over a 4200-km route. The risk to the population along the route is calculated for potential transportation accidents involving fire, impact, and puncture forces. The total risk is 5.3E-7 man-rem (50-year inhalation dose) and the maximum dose (from the least-likely accident) is 0.7 man-rem. Both estimates are less than 0.1% of comparable risk measures for natural background radiation and spent fuel shipment accidents

  20. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  1. Cardiovascular risk factors and events in women with androgen excess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macut, D; Antić, I B; Bjekić-Macut, J

    2015-03-01

    Androgen excess (AE) was approximated to be present in 7% of the adult population of women. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most prevalent among them, followed by idiopathic hirsutism (IH), congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), hyperandrogenic insulin-resistant acanthosis nigricans (HAIRAN) syndrome, and androgen-secreting neoplasms (ASNs). Increased cardiovascular risk was implicated in women with AE. Serum testosterone independently increases risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and correlates even with indices of subclinical atherosclerosis in various populations of postmenopausal women. Hyperandrogenism in PCOS is closely related to the aggravation of abdominal obesity, and together with insulin resistance forming the metabolic core for the development of CVD. However, phenotypic variability of PCOS generates significant influence on the cardiometabolic risks. Numerous risk factors in PCOS lead to 5-7 times higher risk for CVD and over 2-fold higher risk for coronary heart disease and stroke. However, issue on the cardiometabolic risk in postmenopausal women with hyperandrogenic history is still challenging. There is a significant overlapping in the CVD characteristics of women with PCOS and variants of CAH. Relevant clinical data on the prevalence and cardiometabolic risk and events in women with IH, HAIRAN syndrome or ASNs are scarce. The effects of various oral contraceptives (OCs) and antiandrogenic compounds on metabolic profile are varying, and could be related to the selected populations and different therapy regiments mainly conducted in women with PCOS. It is assumed relation of OCs containing antiandrogenic progestins to the increased risk of cardiovascular and thromboembolic events.

  2. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  3. On portfolio risk diversification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

    2017-06-01

    The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

  4. Risk methodologies for offsite hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Eichler, T.V.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1983-01-01

    A number of suggestions have been advanced in recent years concerning the risks posed to nuclear power plants by offsite hazardous materials relative to (1) the regulatory approach including considerations of minimum and safe standoff distances, exclusion distances, site acceptance ceilings and floors, screening distances and screening probabilities, plant design, etc., and (2) the analysis and evaluation procedures such as material screening criteria, plant vulnerability, standarized physical models, etc. An evaluation of current analyses and approaches indicates that this complex problem, variety of approaches, and safety concerns may be better accommodated by developing criteria and treatments along the lines of a so-called conditional risk approach. Specifically, the probability (P) of some ultimate consequence (C) occurring from an accident (A) involving hazardous materials is given as P(C) = P(C/A) x P(A). Assuming that the plant to accident site standoff distance is the fundamental independent variable of the risk methodology, certain conditional risk designations and conditions can be made and are presented

  5. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  6. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  7. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  8. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  9. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  10. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  11. Risk management and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

  12. Man, technology and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks. (Translated from German, original report Juel-Spez--67).

  13. Catalog of risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L; Lee, I S [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Physics

    1979-06-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities.

  14. A catalog of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.; Lee, I.S.

    1979-01-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities. (author)

  15. Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

    1996-01-01

    Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

  16. Operational risk quantification and modelling within Romanian insurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tudor Răzvan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at covering and describing the shortcomings of various models used to quantify and model the operational risk within insurance industry with a particular focus on Romanian specific regulation: Norm 6/2015 concerning the operational risk issued by IT systems. While most of the local insurers are focusing on implementing the standard model to compute the Operational Risk solvency capital required, the local regulator has issued a local norm that requires to identify and assess the IT based operational risks from an ISO 27001 perspective. The challenges raised by the correlations assumed in the Standard model are substantially increased by this new regulation that requires only the identification and quantification of the IT operational risks. The solvency capital requirement stipulated by the implementation of Solvency II doesn’t recommend a model or formula on how to integrate the newly identified risks in the Operational Risk capital requirements. In this context we are going to assess the academic and practitioner’s understanding in what concerns: The Frequency-Severity approach, Bayesian estimation techniques, Scenario Analysis and Risk Accounting based on risk units, and how they could support the modelling of operational risk that are IT based. Developing an internal model only for the operational risk capital requirement proved to be, so far, costly and not necessarily beneficial for the local insurers. As the IT component will play a key role in the future of the insurance industry, the result of this analysis will provide a specific approach in operational risk modelling that can be implemented in the context of Solvency II, in a particular situation when (internal or external operational risk databases are scarce or not available.

  17. Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

    2018-01-22

    Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

  18. Rethinking risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloman, H.F.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

  19. A background of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, R.F.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is reviewed under the headings: introduction (historical and general description of harm, hazards and risk and attempts to define them); expressions of risk (individual risk; fatal accident frequency rate; expressions of risk in terms of deaths suffered per unit of activity; loss of life expectancy; frequency vs consequence lines); comparability of risks. The examples include some references to radiation hazards and reactor accidents. (U.K.)

  20. Risk Factors for Hemorrhoids on Screening Colonoscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne F Peery

    Full Text Available Constipation, a low fiber diet, sedentary lifestyle and gravidity are commonly assumed to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. However, evidence regarding these factors is limited. We examined the association between commonly cited risk factors and the prevalence of hemorrhoids.We performed a cross sectional study of participants who underwent a colonoscopy in a colorectal adenoma prevention trial and who had a detailed assessment of bowel habits, diet and activity. The presence of hemorrhoids was extracted from the subjects' colonoscopy reports. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals while adjusting for age and sex.The study included 2,813 participants. Of these, 1,074 had hemorrhoids recorded. Constipation was associated with an increased prevalence of hemorrhoids (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.86. Of the fiber subtypes, high grain fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1 = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62, 0.98. We found no association when comparing gravid and nulligravida women (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.62-1.40. Sedentary behavior was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, but not physical activity (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66-1.03. Neither being overweight nor obese was associated with the presence of hemorrhoids (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09 and OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.06.Constipation is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhoids. Gravidity and physical activity do not appear to be associated. High grain fiber intake and sedentary behavior are associated with a decreased risk of hemorrhoids.

  1. Risk Factors for Hemorrhoids on Screening Colonoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peery, Anne F; Sandler, Robert S; Galanko, Joseph A; Bresalier, Robert S; Figueiredo, Jane C; Ahnen, Dennis J; Barry, Elizabeth L; Baron, John A

    2015-01-01

    Constipation, a low fiber diet, sedentary lifestyle and gravidity are commonly assumed to increase the risk of hemorrhoids. However, evidence regarding these factors is limited. We examined the association between commonly cited risk factors and the prevalence of hemorrhoids. We performed a cross sectional study of participants who underwent a colonoscopy in a colorectal adenoma prevention trial and who had a detailed assessment of bowel habits, diet and activity. The presence of hemorrhoids was extracted from the subjects' colonoscopy reports. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals while adjusting for age and sex. The study included 2,813 participants. Of these, 1,074 had hemorrhoids recorded. Constipation was associated with an increased prevalence of hemorrhoids (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11, 1.86). Of the fiber subtypes, high grain fiber intake was associated with a reduced risk (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1 = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62, 0.98). We found no association when comparing gravid and nulligravida women (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.62-1.40). Sedentary behavior was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98), but not physical activity (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66-1.03). Neither being overweight nor obese was associated with the presence of hemorrhoids (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72-1.09 and OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.06). Constipation is associated with an increased risk of hemorrhoids. Gravidity and physical activity do not appear to be associated. High grain fiber intake and sedentary behavior are associated with a decreased risk of hemorrhoids.

  2. [Health risks from pest control products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieper, C; Holthenrich, D; Schneider, H

    2014-05-01

    According to European biocide legislation, pest control products require assessment and authorization by the responsible national or European authorities. Biocidal products can only be authorized if they have no unacceptable effects on human health. The health risk assessment performed for authorization comprises (a) the derivation of reference values for the active substances and substances of concern contained in the biocidal product and (b) an exposure assessment. These parameters are required for risk characterization. No unacceptable health risks are expected if the determined exposure is less than the relevant reference value. In addition, the toxicological information is used for classification of the biocidal product. The assessment may, where necessary, result in specific conditions for use or other restrictions aimed at minimizing risk. The risk to human health from pest control products is mainly based on the toxicological properties of their active substances. Commonly, the coformulants used in pest control products are of less concern than the active substances (e.g., food ingredients and animal feed products). For example, most rodenticides belong to the group of anticoagulants, which are also effective in humans. Regarding intoxications through insecticides, the group of pyrethroids is of particular importance. Fumigants containing metal phosphides, hydrogen cyanide, or sulfuryl difluoride are particularly toxic. This toxicity is linked to the high acute inhalation toxicity of the gaseous active substances themselves or, in the case of phosphides, of the released gas phosphane. The aim of health risk assessment for the authorization of biocidal products is to ensure their safe application for users and all other persons involved, assuming an adequate and label-compliant use.

  3. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  4. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farsi, Mehdi [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zuerichbergstr. 18, Zurich 8032 (Switzerland)

    2010-06-15

    This paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers' valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments. Given consumers' limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings, these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk-averse consumers. Using the concept of certainty-equivalence, this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers' risk-aversion for adopting energy-efficient systems. These systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk-free. The curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances. The proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables. The model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in Switzerland. The estimated curvatures reject the risk-neutrality hypothesis. The range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings. The analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay, especially when the system is comprised of several components. (author)

  5. Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farsi, Mehdi

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers' valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments. Given consumers' limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings, these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk-averse consumers. Using the concept of certainty-equivalence, this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers' risk-aversion for adopting energy-efficient systems. These systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk-free. The curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances. The proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables. The model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in Switzerland. The estimated curvatures reject the risk-neutrality hypothesis. The range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings. The analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay, especially when the system is comprised of several components.

  6. An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Barry

    1992-01-01

    The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies

  7. Estimation of risks to humans following intake of plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, G.W.

    1979-01-01

    The lung cancer in humans induced by plutonium intake usually starts in bronchial epithelium. The main types of lung cancer are epidermoid or squamous cell carcinoma, small cell anaplastic carcinoma, carcinoid types and bronchio-loalveolar cell carcinoma. The data on cancer in the patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast are the only source of data from which risk estimates can be made for liver cancer. In the beagles injected with plutonium citrate, the only type of liver tumors observed in cholangiosarcoma, and if this were the case for humans, then the appropriate risk estimate is 3 times lower in human patients. Bone sarcoma and the cancer of the epithelial surfaces close to bones have been reported extensively in workers and patients exposed to radium-226 and radium-224. In the case of plutonium, it is assumed for the purpose of risk estimates that the cancer of the epithelial surfaces near bones does not occur. Plutonium passes through guts following ingestion or following the clearance of particles initially deposited in respiratory tracts. In the case of all long-lived radionuclides, lower large intestines are the region which receive the greatest dose from the activity passing through guts. It is assumed that plutonium accumulates in bone marrows through the action of macrophages engulfing the plutonium resorbed from bone surfaces. The main uncertainty in estimating the annual limit of intake probably lies in the metabolic and dosimetric models, and to a lesser extent, in the estimate of risk. (Yamashita, S.)

  8. An industry approach to the risk assessment of pesticides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Barry [Schering Agrochemicals Ltd., Chesterford Park Research Station, Saffron Walder, Essex (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The regulatory control of pesticides has developed over the last 40 years during which time major changes have occurred, not only in the scientific basis of risk assessment but also in the socio-political perception of pesticides and of the agricultural and chemical industries. Traditionally, and logically, the registration of pesticides has been based on a pre-marketing risk-benefit assessment by but changes have occurred in the relative importance associated with the two elements of this assessment. These potential risks have assumed a greater importance as has the acceptability of such risks. By contrast the benefits of using plant protection products to increase agricultural productivity and production has assumed less importance in the light of perceived agricultural surpluses, at least in the Developed Countries. This paper will consider current and future regulatory requirements for pesticides and identify some of the key areas which are of importance to the Plant Protection Industry. It will also discuss initiatives, by both the Industry and Government, aimed at ensuring the safe use of plant protection products, how such initiatives are likely to impact on new product developments and the consequential effects on global food supplies.

  9. Systematic implementation of clinical risk management in a large university hospital: the impact of risk managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendlhofer, Gerald; Brunner, Gernot; Tax, Christa; Falzberger, Gebhard; Smolle, Josef; Leitgeb, Karina; Kober, Brigitte; Kamolz, Lars Peter

    2015-01-01

    For health care systems in recent years, patient safety has increasingly become a priority issue. National and international strategies have been considered to attempt to overcome the most prominent hazards while patients are receiving health care. Thereby, clinical risk management (CRM) plays a dominant role in enabling the identification, analysis, and management of potential risks. CRM implementation into routine procedures within complex hospital organizations is challenging, as in the past, organizational change strategies using a top-down approach have often failed. Therefore, one of our main objectives was to educate a certain number of risk managers in facilitating CRM using a bottom-up approach. To achieve our primary purpose, five project strands were developed, and consequently followed, introducing CRM: corporate governance, risk management (RM) training, CRM process, information, and involvement. The core part of the CRM process involved the education of risk managers within each organizational unit. To account for the size of the existing organization, we assumed that a minimum of 1 % of the workforce had to be trained in RM to disseminate the continuous improvement of quality and safety. Following a roll-out plan, CRM was introduced in each unit and potential risks were identified. Alongside the changes in the corporate governance, a hospital-wide CRM process was introduced resulting in 158 trained risk managers correlating to 2.0 % of the total workforce. Currently, risk managers are present in every unit and have identified 360 operational risks. Among those, 176 risks were scored as strategic and clustered together into top risks. Effective meeting structures and opportunities to share information and knowledge were introduced. Thus far, 31 units have been externally audited in CRM. The CRM approach is unique with respect to its dimension; members of all health care professions were trained to be able to identify potential risks. A network of risk

  10. Assessing the risks of Rn exposure: the influence of cigarette smoking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.E.; Mills, W.A.

    1986-01-01

    The principal hazard associated with exposure to Rn progeny is lung cancer. However, most lung cancer is caused by smoking, which raises a dual problem of deriving Rn-progeny cancer risk estimates from miner populations who, in large part, are smokers and applying these estimates to the general population whose lung cancer risk, in large part, is determined by smoking habits. We examine current risk estimates for Rn-progeny-induced lung cancer using a cohort life table methodology. Estimates of lifetime probability of dying of lung cancer, average loss in life expectancy due to premature lung cancer death, and loss in life expectancy per premature lung cancer death are calculated for the general population for 1969 and 1978, nonsmokers, and smokers. These calculations demonstrate that such risk estimates are affected by smoking, and by trends in smoking habits, in several ways. Major smoking-related factors in this interaction are the proportion of smokers in the mining population used to derive lung cancer risk estimates, the proportion of smokers in the ''general'' population, and the assumed interaction (additive or multiplicative) between lung cancer risk, Rn-progeny exposure, and smoking history. At this time the data are not sufficient to recommend one particular modeling approach. However, our evaluation demonstrates that broad statements about Rn-progeny lung cancer risk such as x cancers/10(6) person working level month, while informative, are incomplete without further specification. Any risk assessment must clearly state the population assumed to be at risk and the risk model assumed to be operating. Finally, the caveats appropriate to these assumptions should also be enunciated

  11. Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Han

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.

  12. EPRI nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    The present results of the nuclear fuel-cycle accident risk assessment conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute show that the total risk contribution of the nuclear fuel cycle is only approx. 1% of the accident risk of the power plant; hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is essentially that of the power plant itself. The power-plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005 is only approx. 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. The smallness of the fuel-cycle risk relative to the power-plant risk may be attributed to the lack of internal energy to drive an accident and the small amount of dispersible material. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihood of errors and the estimated size of errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault-tree analysis, with the release source terms calculated using physicochemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with CRAC (Consequences of Reactor Accident Code). No evacuation or mitigation is considered; source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/t) and short cooling period (90 to 150 d); high-efficiency particulate air filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  13. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  14. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  17. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  18. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

  19. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  20. Preferences over Social Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Rutström, E. Elisabet

    2013-01-01

    that subjects systematically reveal different risk attitudes in a social setting with no prior knowledge about the risk preferences of others compared to when they solely bear the consequences of the decision. However, we also find that subjects are significantly more risk averse when they know the risk......We elicit individual preferences over social risk. We identify the extent to which these preferences are correlated with preferences over individual risk and the well-being of others. We examine these preferences in the context of laboratory experiments over small, anonymous groups, although...... the methodological issues extend to larger groups that form endogenously (e.g., families, committees, communities). Preferences over social risk can be closely approximated by individual risk attitudes when subjects have no information about the risk preferences of other group members. We find no evidence...

  1. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  2. Diversity in Risk Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Nur Probohudono

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the communication of the five major categories of risk (business, strategy, market and credit risk disclosure over the volatile 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC time period in key South East Asian countries’ manufacturing listed companies. This study is important as it contributes to the literature by providing insights into the voluntary risk disclosure practices using sample countries with different economic scenarios. Key findings are that business risk is the most disclosed category and strategy risk is the least disclosed. Business and credit risk disclosure consistently increase over the three year period, while operating, market and strategy risk disclosure increase in 2008, but then decrease slightly in 2009. Statistical analysis reveals that country of incorporation and size help predict risk disclosure levels. The overall low disclosure levels (26-29% highlight the potential for far higher communication of key risk factors.

  3. Risk, Resources and Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyng Jensen, Jesper; Ponsaing, Claus Due; Thrane, Sof

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we describe a basic mechanism by which risk events can induce indirect value losses to the risk owner: a value loss arising from a risk event interfering with activities that have no logical connection with the risk event other than that of having the same owner; a mechanism we...... to large risk events is to mitigate the consequences of the risk event through negotiating with the environment. If such negotiations fail, the subject will have no alternative but to let other activities and projects under direct control of the risk owner suffer. We end the article with conjectures....... The risk cost component presented in this article, whose existence has previously been argued in the risk literature, has been documented in a single factorial experiment with a unique simulation device named Risky Business. Through our experiments, we have shown that the first response of subjects exposed...

  4. Risk management overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGovern, S.

    1995-01-01

    Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

  5. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

    2015-05-25

    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  6. Effective risk stratification in patients with moderate cardiovascular risk using albuminuria and atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Sehestedt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    , Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at least 12 m/s, and carotid atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg...... risk patients and high-intermediate FRS risk patients with high risk (P = 0.04 and P = 0.001, respectively), whereas elevated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity did not. Elevated UACR or presence of atherosclerotic plaques reclassified patients from moderate to high SCORE risk [net reclassification...... improvement of 6.4%; P = 0.025), or from high intermediate to high FRS risk (net reclassification improvement 8.8%; P = 0.002). Assuming primary prevention could reduce the relative cardiovascular risk by 24-27%, on the basis of actual levels of blood pressure and cholesterol, one composite endpoint could...

  7. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  8. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  9. Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

  10. Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    . Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

  11. Gender, risk and journalism

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Janet; Mosdell, Nicholas; Griffiths, James

    2016-01-01

    Are female journalists more at risk in covering conflict than their male colleagues? \\ud Beck states ‘risk is the anticipation of the catastrophe – so it is existent and non-existent’. Is the contention that female journalists are more at risk, knowledge, or a construction of knowledge? Are Editors and journalists who decide that women are more at risk merely anticipating a catastrophe? There is no certainty that women would be more at risk, but the fear that women are more at risk can preven...

  12. Cyber risk in banking

    OpenAIRE

    Linert, Jan

    2015-01-01

    The bachelor thesis deals with the cyber risk in banking industry. Its main goal is to stress the imporatance of cyber risk both verbally and numericaly and review the approach of banks to this risk. The first part of this thesis specifies what cyber risk is and how it fits among other operational risks, presents the common cyber-attacks and archetypes of cyber criminals, later it delves into the cyber risk in Czech Republic and at the end of this part it mentions the legislation that covers ...

  13. Common Genetic Variation In Cellular Transport Genes and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer (EOC) Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chornokur, Ganna; Lin, Hui-Yi; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Lawrenson, Kate; Dennis, Joe; Amankwah, Ernest K; Qu, Xiaotao; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Jim, Heather S L; Chen, Zhihua; Chen, Ann Y; Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Aben, Katja K H; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia; Bruinsma, Fiona; Bandera, Elisa V; Bean, Yukie T; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bisogna, Maria; Bjorge, Line; Bogdanova, Natalia; Brinton, Louise A; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Bunker, Clareann H; Butzow, Ralf; Campbell, Ian G; Carty, Karen; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Cook, Linda S; Cramer, Daniel W; Cunningham, Julie M; Cybulski, Cezary; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; du Bois, Andreas; Despierre, Evelyn; Dicks, Ed; Doherty, Jennifer A; Dörk, Thilo; Dürst, Matthias; Easton, Douglas F; Eccles, Diana M; Edwards, Robert P; Ekici, Arif B; Fasching, Peter A; Fridley, Brooke L; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Giles, Graham G; Glasspool, Rosalind; Goodman, Marc T; Gronwald, Jacek; Harrington, Patricia; Harter, Philipp; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hildebrandt, Michelle A T; Hillemanns, Peter; Hogdall, Claus K; Hogdall, Estrid; Hosono, Satoyo; Jakubowska, Anna; Jensen, Allan; Ji, Bu-Tian; Karlan, Beth Y; Kelemen, Linda E; Kellar, Mellissa; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Krakstad, Camilla; Kjaer, Susanne K; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Le, Nhu D; Lee, Alice W; Lele, Shashi; Leminen, Arto; Lester, Jenny; Levine, Douglas A; Liang, Dong; Lim, Boon Kiong; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Karen; Lubinski, Jan; Lundvall, Lene; Massuger, Leon F A G; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGuire, Valerie; McLaughlin, John R; McNeish, Iain; Menon, Usha; Milne, Roger L; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B; Ness, Roberta B; Nevanlinna, Heli; Eilber, Ursula; Odunsi, Kunle; Olson, Sara H; Orlow, Irene; Orsulic, Sandra; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Paul, James; Pearce, Celeste L; Pejovic, Tanja; Pelttari, Liisa M; Pike, Malcolm C; Poole, Elizabeth M; Risch, Harvey A; Rosen, Barry; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rothstein, Joseph H; Rudolph, Anja; Runnebaum, Ingo B; Rzepecka, Iwona K; Salvesen, Helga B; Schernhammer, Eva; Schwaab, Ira; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C; Spiewankiewicz, Beata; Sucheston, Lara; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Kathryn L; Thompson, Pamela J; Thomsen, Lotte; Tangen, Ingvild L; Tworoger, Shelley S; van Altena, Anne M; Vierkant, Robert A; Vergote, Ignace; Walsh, Christine S; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S; Wicklund, Kristine G; Wilkens, Lynne R; Wu, Anna H; Wu, Xifeng; Woo, Yin-Ling; Yang, Hannah; Zheng, Wei; Ziogas, Argyrios; Hasmad, Hanis N; Berchuck, Andrew; Iversen, Edwin S; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Ramus, Susan J; Goode, Ellen L; Monteiro, Alvaro N A; Gayther, Simon A; Narod, Steven A; Pharoah, Paul D P; Sellers, Thomas A; Phelan, Catherine M

    2015-01-01

    Defective cellular transport processes can lead to aberrant accumulation of trace elements, iron, small molecules and hormones in the cell, which in turn may promote the formation of reactive oxygen species, promoting DNA damage and aberrant expression of key regulatory cancer genes. As DNA damage and uncontrolled proliferation are hallmarks of cancer, including epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), we hypothesized that inherited variation in the cellular transport genes contributes to EOC risk. In total, DNA samples were obtained from 14,525 case subjects with invasive EOC and from 23,447 controls from 43 sites in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). Two hundred seventy nine SNPs, representing 131 genes, were genotyped using an Illumina Infinium iSelect BeadChip as part of the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study (COGS). SNP analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression under a log-additive model, and the FDR q<0.2 was applied to adjust for multiple comparisons. The most significant evidence of an association for all invasive cancers combined and for the serous subtype was observed for SNP rs17216603 in the iron transporter gene HEPH (invasive: OR = 0.85, P = 0.00026; serous: OR = 0.81, P = 0.00020); this SNP was also associated with the borderline/low malignant potential (LMP) tumors (P = 0.021). Other genes significantly associated with EOC histological subtypes (p<0.05) included the UGT1A (endometrioid), SLC25A45 (mucinous), SLC39A11 (low malignant potential), and SERPINA7 (clear cell carcinoma). In addition, 1785 SNPs in six genes (HEPH, MGST1, SERPINA, SLC25A45, SLC39A11 and UGT1A) were imputed from the 1000 Genomes Project and examined for association with INV EOC in white-European subjects. The most significant imputed SNP was rs117729793 in SLC39A11 (per allele, OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.5-4.35, p = 5.66x10-4). These results, generated on a large cohort of women, revealed associations between inherited cellular transport

  14. Common Genetic Variation In Cellular Transport Genes and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer (EOC Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganna Chornokur

    Full Text Available Defective cellular transport processes can lead to aberrant accumulation of trace elements, iron, small molecules and hormones in the cell, which in turn may promote the formation of reactive oxygen species, promoting DNA damage and aberrant expression of key regulatory cancer genes. As DNA damage and uncontrolled proliferation are hallmarks of cancer, including epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC, we hypothesized that inherited variation in the cellular transport genes contributes to EOC risk.In total, DNA samples were obtained from 14,525 case subjects with invasive EOC and from 23,447 controls from 43 sites in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC. Two hundred seventy nine SNPs, representing 131 genes, were genotyped using an Illumina Infinium iSelect BeadChip as part of the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study (COGS. SNP analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression under a log-additive model, and the FDR q<0.2 was applied to adjust for multiple comparisons.The most significant evidence of an association for all invasive cancers combined and for the serous subtype was observed for SNP rs17216603 in the iron transporter gene HEPH (invasive: OR = 0.85, P = 0.00026; serous: OR = 0.81, P = 0.00020; this SNP was also associated with the borderline/low malignant potential (LMP tumors (P = 0.021. Other genes significantly associated with EOC histological subtypes (p<0.05 included the UGT1A (endometrioid, SLC25A45 (mucinous, SLC39A11 (low malignant potential, and SERPINA7 (clear cell carcinoma. In addition, 1785 SNPs in six genes (HEPH, MGST1, SERPINA, SLC25A45, SLC39A11 and UGT1A were imputed from the 1000 Genomes Project and examined for association with INV EOC in white-European subjects. The most significant imputed SNP was rs117729793 in SLC39A11 (per allele, OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.5-4.35, p = 5.66x10-4.These results, generated on a large cohort of women, revealed associations between inherited cellular

  15. Common Genetic Variation In Cellular Transport Genes and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer (EOC) Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chornokur, Ganna; Lin, Hui-Yi; Tyrer, Jonathan P.; Lawrenson, Kate; Dennis, Joe; Amankwah, Ernest K.; Qu, Xiaotao; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Jim, Heather S. L.; Chen, Zhihua; Chen, Ann Y.; Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Aben, Katja KH.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia; Bruinsma, Fiona; Bandera, Elisa V.; Bean, Yukie T.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Bisogna, Maria; Bjorge, Line; Bogdanova, Natalia; Brinton, Louise A.; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Bunker, Clareann H.; Butzow, Ralf; Campbell, Ian G.; Carty, Karen; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Cook, Linda S.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cybulski, Cezary; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; du Bois, Andreas; Despierre, Evelyn; Dicks, Ed; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Dörk, Thilo; Dürst, Matthias; Easton, Douglas F.; Eccles, Diana M.; Edwards, Robert P.; Ekici, Arif B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Giles, Graham G.; Glasspool, Rosalind; Goodman, Marc T.; Gronwald, Jacek; Harrington, Patricia; Harter, Philipp; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hildebrandt, Michelle A. T.; Hillemanns, Peter; Hogdall, Claus K.; Hogdall, Estrid; Hosono, Satoyo; Jakubowska, Anna; Jensen, Allan; Ji, Bu-Tian; Karlan, Beth Y.; Kelemen, Linda E.; Kellar, Mellissa; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Krakstad, Camilla; Kjaer, Susanne K.; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Le, Nhu D.; Lee, Alice W.; Lele, Shashi; Leminen, Arto; Lester, Jenny; Levine, Douglas A.; Liang, Dong; Lim, Boon Kiong; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Karen; Lubinski, Jan; Lundvall, Lene; Massuger, Leon F. A. G.; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGuire, Valerie; McLaughlin, John R.; McNeish, Iain; Menon, Usha; Milne, Roger L.; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Ness, Roberta B.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Eilber, Ursula; Odunsi, Kunle; Olson, Sara H.; Orlow, Irene; Orsulic, Sandra; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Paul, James; Pearce, Celeste L.; Pejovic, Tanja; Pelttari, Liisa M.; Pike, Malcolm C.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rosen, Barry; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Rudolph, Anja; Runnebaum, Ingo B.; Rzepecka, Iwona K.; Salvesen, Helga B.; Schernhammer, Eva; Schwaab, Ira; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Shvetsov, Yurii B.; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C.; Spiewankiewicz, Beata; Sucheston, Lara; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Kathryn L.; Thompson, Pamela J.; Thomsen, Lotte; Tangen, Ingvild L.; Tworoger, Shelley S.; van Altena, Anne M.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Vergote, Ignace; Walsh, Christine S.; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wilkens, Lynne R.; Wu, Anna H.; Wu, Xifeng; Woo, Yin-Ling; Yang, Hannah; Zheng, Wei; Ziogas, Argyrios; Hasmad, Hanis N.; Berchuck, Andrew; Iversen, Edwin S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.; Ramus, Susan J.; Goode, Ellen L.; Monteiro, Alvaro N. A.; Gayther, Simon A.; Narod, Steven A.; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Phelan, Catherine M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Defective cellular transport processes can lead to aberrant accumulation of trace elements, iron, small molecules and hormones in the cell, which in turn may promote the formation of reactive oxygen species, promoting DNA damage and aberrant expression of key regulatory cancer genes. As DNA damage and uncontrolled proliferation are hallmarks of cancer, including epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), we hypothesized that inherited variation in the cellular transport genes contributes to EOC risk. Methods In total, DNA samples were obtained from 14,525 case subjects with invasive EOC and from 23,447 controls from 43 sites in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). Two hundred seventy nine SNPs, representing 131 genes, were genotyped using an Illumina Infinium iSelect BeadChip as part of the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study (COGS). SNP analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression under a log-additive model, and the FDR q<0.2 was applied to adjust for multiple comparisons. Results The most significant evidence of an association for all invasive cancers combined and for the serous subtype was observed for SNP rs17216603 in the iron transporter gene HEPH (invasive: OR = 0.85, P = 0.00026; serous: OR = 0.81, P = 0.00020); this SNP was also associated with the borderline/low malignant potential (LMP) tumors (P = 0.021). Other genes significantly associated with EOC histological subtypes (p<0.05) included the UGT1A (endometrioid), SLC25A45 (mucinous), SLC39A11 (low malignant potential), and SERPINA7 (clear cell carcinoma). In addition, 1785 SNPs in six genes (HEPH, MGST1, SERPINA, SLC25A45, SLC39A11 and UGT1A) were imputed from the 1000 Genomes Project and examined for association with INV EOC in white-European subjects. The most significant imputed SNP was rs117729793 in SLC39A11 (per allele, OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.5-4.35, p = 5.66x10-4). Conclusion These results, generated on a large cohort of women, revealed associations

  16. Selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms in FOXE1, SERPINA5, FTO, EVPL, TICAM1 and SCARB1 are associated with papillary and follicular thyroid cancer risk: replication study in a German population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigurdson, Alice J; Brenner, Alina V; Roach, James A; Goudeva, Lilia; Müller, Jörg A; Nerlich, Kai; Reiners, Christoph; Schwab, Robert; Pfeiffer, Liliane; Waldenberger, Melanie; Braganza, Melissa; Xu, Li; Sturgis, Erich M; Yeager, Meredith; Chanock, Stephen J; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

    2016-07-01

    Several single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been associated with papillary and follicular thyroid cancer (PTC and FTC, respectively) risk, but few have replicated. After analyzing 17525 tag SNPs in 1129 candidate genes, we found associations with PTC risk in SERPINA5, FTO, HEMGN (near FOXE1) and other genes. Here, we report results from a replication effort in a large independent PTC/FTC case-control study conducted in Germany. We evaluated the best tagging SNPs from our previous PTC study and additionally included SNPs in or near FOXE1 and NKX2-1 genes, known susceptibility loci for thyroid cancer. We genotyped 422 PTC and 130 FTC cases and 752 controls recruited from three German clinical centers. We used polytomous logistic regression to simultaneously estimate PTC and FTC associations for 79 SNPs based on log-additive models. We assessed effect modification by body mass index (BMI), gender and age for all SNPs, and selected SNP by SNP interactions. We confirmed associations with PTC and SNPs in FOXE1/HEMGN, SERPINA5 (rs2069974), FTO (rs8047395), EVPL (rs2071194), TICAM1 (rs8120) and SCARB1 (rs11057820) genes. We found associations with SNPs in FOXE1, SERPINA5, FTO, TICAM1 and HSPA6 and FTC. We found two significant interactions between FTO (rs8047395) and BMI (P = 0.0321) and between TICAM1 (rs8120) and FOXE1 (rs10984377) (P = 0.0006). Besides the known associations with FOXE1 SNPs, we confirmed additional PTC SNP associations reported previously. We also found several new associations with FTC risk and noteworthy interactions. We conclude that multiple variants and host factors might interact in complex ways to increase risk of PTC and FTC. Published by Oxford University Press 2016.

  17. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  18. Using prior risk-related knowledge to support risk management decisions: lessons learnt from a tunneling project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Ibsen Chivatá; Al-Jibouri, Saad S H; Halman, Johannes I M; van de Linde, Wim; Kaalberg, Frank

    2014-10-01

    The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site- and project-specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk-related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk-related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk-related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic-causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are

  19. Risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.; Vrousos, C.; Pages, J.P.; Carde, C.

    1999-01-01

    This book brings together the communications presented at the colloquium 'risk and society' held in Paris (France) on November 1998. During this colloquium, the various aspects of risk and of its management were discussed by medical specialists, historians, industrialists, engineers, philosophers, lawyers, politicians and administration representatives. The first theme concerns the controversies generated by the development of some activities (genetics, bio-technologies, nuclear and radiations use). The second theme concerns the management of risks and the way to conciliate the point of view of authorities and citizens (confidence of the public with respect to experts, scientists, industrialists, government and administrative representatives, role played by the media). The debates that took place during the colloquium have shown that the public opinion concerning the nuclear activities or the new technologies greatly depends on the ideological attitudes and on the public's likes and dislikes with respect to some categories of actors (distrust with respect to public decisions, fears with respect to changes and future, nostalgia of the past). The following aspects are reviewed: Notions of risk and hazard (risk and health, risk in today's society, medicine and society, the point of view of the industrialists and of the scientific and technical specialists); from the psychological aspects of the risk to its social aspects (survey of the risk assessment battlefield, social attenuation and amplification of risk, the feeling of risks in Europe, insecurity and delinquency, controversies around radioactivity and health); the negotiation and communication about risks (risk and public health, negotiation around risks, risks and information dissemination about the public debate, communication and crisis, evolution of risk communication, comparison between American and European approaches, the Seveso directive); the public debate and the evolution of risks management (the

  20. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  1. Medical radiation exposure and genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, D.G.

    1980-01-01

    Everyone is exposed to background radiation throughout life (100 mrem/year to the gonads or 4 to 5 rem during the reproductive years). A lumbosacral series might deliver 2500 mrem to the male or 400 mrem to the female gonads. A radiologic procedure is a cost/benefit decision, and genetic risk is a part of the cost. Although cost is usually very low compared to benefit, if the procedure is unnecessary then the cost may be unacceptable. On the basis of current estimates, the doubling dose is assumed to be 40 rem (range 20 to 200) for an acute dose, and 100 rem for protracted exposure. Although there is no satisfactory way to predict the size of the risk for an individual exposed, any risk should be incentive to avoid unnecessary radiation to the gonads. Conception should be delayed for at least ten months for women and three or four months for men after irradiation of the gonads. The current incidence of genetically related diseases in the United States population is 60,000 per million live births. Based on the most conservative set of assumptions, an average gonadal dose of 1000 mrem to the whole population would increase the incidence of genetically related diseases by 0.2%

  2. Evacuation Risks: a tentative approach for quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastien, M.C.; Dumas, M.; Laporte, J; Parmentier, N.

    1985-01-01

    This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person-km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 32 10 -8 injuries per person-km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10 -8 injuries per person-km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations

  3. Leukemia risk following radiotherapy for breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, R.E.; Boice, J.D. Jr.; Stovall, M.; Flannery, J.T.; Moloney, W.C.

    1989-01-01

    To evaluate further the relationship between high-dose radiotherapy and leukemia incidence, a nested case-control study was conducted in a cohort of 22,753 women who were 18-month survivors of invasive breast cancer diagnosed from 1935 to 1972. Women treated for breast cancer after 1973 were excluded to minimize the possible confounding influence of treatment with chemotherapeutic agents. The cases had histologically confirmed leukemia reported to the Connecticut Tumor Registry (CTR) between 1935 and 1984. A total of 48 cases of leukemia following breast cancer were included in the study. Two controls were individually matched to each leukemia case on the basis of age, calendar year when diagnosed with breast cancer, and survival time. Leukemia diagnoses were verified by one hematologist. Radiation dose to active bone marrow was estimated by medical physicists on the basis of the original radiotherapy records of study subjects. Local radiation doses to each of the 16 bone marrow components for each patient were reconstructed; the dose averaged over the entire body was 530 rad (5.3 Gy). Based on this dosage and assuming a linear relationship between dose and affect, a relative risk (RR) in excess of 10 would have been expected. However, there was little evidence that radiotherapy increased the overall risk of leukemia (RR = 1.16; 90% confidence interval [CI], 0.6 to 2.1). The risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia, one of the few malignancies without evidence for an association with ionizing radiation, was not significantly increased (RR = 1.8; n = 10); nor was the risk for all other forms of leukemia (RR = 1.0; n = 38). There was no indication that risk varied over categories of radiation dose

  4. Risk management at university

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

    2013-01-01

    This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

  5. Technical risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1983-01-01

    The report explains the possibilities and limits of risk analysis, risk assessment by the citizen, especially in hearings in the course of licensing procedures, and decisive causes why assessments on the part of the citizens may fail. (HP) [de

  6. Management of business risks

    OpenAIRE

    BAZARBAY A.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

  7. Fuzzy risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

    2008-01-01

    A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

  8. Canadian nuclear risk experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamel, P.E.

    1982-05-01

    Risk assessment in the Canadian nuclear fuel cycle is a very important and complex subject. Many levels of government are involved in deciding the acceptable limits for the risks, taking into account the benefits for society [fr

  9. [Global risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  11. Risk and cognition

    CERN Document Server

    Faucher, Colette

    2015-01-01

    This book presents recent research using cognitive science to apprehend risk situations and elaborate new organizations, new systems and new methodological tools in response. The book demonstrates the reasons, advantages and implications of the association of the concepts of cognition and risk. It is shown that this association has strong consequences on how to apprehend critical situations that emerge  within various activity domains, and how to elaborate responses to these critical situations.. The following topics are covered by the book: ·     Influence of the culture in risk management, ·     Influence of the risk communication in risk management, ·     User-centred design to improve risk situation management, ·     Designing new tools to assist risk situation management, ·     Risk prevention in industrial activities.

  12. Risk a multidisciplinary introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell

    2014-01-01

    This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...

  13. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  14. Risk-informed assessment of degraded containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, B.W.; Kunsman, D.M.; Graves, H.L.

    2003-01-01

    As nuclear power plants age, a number of degradation mechanisms may begin to affect the ability of critical containment structures to prevent radiation release during a severe accident. A research program is underway to quantify the effects of various types of containment degradation in a risk-informed manner. In this paper, corrosion is assumed to occur in the liner of a reinforced concrete containment at a 'typical' U.S. pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant, and its effect is investigated. Latin hypercube sampling is used in conjunction with finite element models of a typical steel-lined reinforced concrete containment to generate overpressurization fragilities of the containment with and without corrosion. An existing probabilistic risk assessment model of the plant is then used with these fragilities to determine the increase in risk caused by the corrosion. (author)

  15. A Macroeconomic Model of Credit Risk in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Illanes

    Full Text Available In this paper we evaluate credit risk of the economy as a whole, aiming at the study of the financial stability. This analysis uses as proxy the credit granted by the banking system. We use a non-linear parametric model based on Merton's structural framework for the analysis of the risk associated to a loan portfolio. In this model, default occurs when the return of an economic agent falls under certain threshold which depends on different macroeconomic variables. We use this model to assess the credit risk module in stress tests for the local banking system. We also estimate the "elasticities" of credit categories correspondig to corporate credit and consumer credit, both in national currency and american dollars. We obtain the parameters for the model using maximum likelihood, where the likelihood function contains a random latent factor which is assumed to follow a normal distribution.

  16. Framing Effects in Narrative and Non-Narrative Risk Messages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhardt, Joseph; Shapiro, Michael A

    2015-08-01

    Narrative messages are increasingly popular in health and risk campaigns, yet gain/loss framing effects have never been tested with such messages. Three experiments examined framing in narrative messages. Experiment 1 found that only the character's decision, not framing, influenced judgments about characters in a narrative derived from a prospect theory context. Experiment 2 found that a framing effect that occurred when presented in a decision format did not occur when the same situation was presented as a narrative. Using a different story/decision context, Experiment 3 found no significant difference in preference for surgery over radiation therapy in a narrative presentation compared to a non-narrative presentation. The results suggest that health and risk campaigns cannot assume that framing effects will be the same in narrative messages and non-narrative messages. Potential reasons for these differences and suggestions for future research are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasnoff, William A

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

  18. Seismic isolation of plants at risk of a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    More and more devastating earthquakes struck every year our planet. Many of these, though occurring in areas considered at high risk of earthquakes, far exceed the levels required by law. The industrial plants subjected to risk of severe accident, in particular petrochemical and nuclear power plants, are particularly exposed to this risk because of the number and the complexity of the structures and critical components of which they are composed. For this type of structures, anti-seismic techniques able to provide complete protection, even in case of unforeseen events, are needed. Seismic isolation is certainly the most promising technology of modern antiseismic as it allows not only to significantly reduce the dynamic load acting on the structures in case of seismic attack, but to provide safety margins against violent earthquakes, exceeding the assumed maximum design limit. [it

  19. Risk in International Business

    OpenAIRE

    Canavan, Deirdre; Sharkey Scott, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    Risk in international business can stress risk adverse behaviour to counteract foreign market uncertainty or individual entrepreneurial risk taking behaviour dependent on the characteristics of both the business sector and the individual. International business theory would suggest that the perception of risk may differ in situations including where new market entry is incremental, is taken in larger or earlier stages, or indeed whether it may be experienced in a continually fluctuating manne...

  20. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  1. Credit risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Bank for International Settlements

    2003-01-01

    Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

  2. Risk management for whales

    OpenAIRE

    Cont, R; Wagalath, L

    2016-01-01

    We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

  3. Risks and perceptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.

    1987-01-01

    The article on the risks and perceptions of nuclear power was previously published in the Times Higher Education Supplement, May 1987. The public attitude towards risks associated with nuclear power, compared with other risks in everyday life, is examined. Results of psychological studies of the perceived risk of nuclear power are also discussed. The author argues that fear of nuclear catastrophe is not one which can be brushed aside by statistics or punditry. (UK)

  4. Communication about risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The conditions, difficulties and possibilities of communication on technological risks are detailed here. There is a description of the types and levels of argument on risks and the risk-concept itself, of the research field of risk communication, of the conceptional frame-work of the working-party, of the research programme and of the chances for a long-term prospect from the group. (DG) [de

  5. IT Risk register

    OpenAIRE

    Kohout, Karel

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing...

  6. Nuclear benefits and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saunders, P

    1987-03-01

    The paper reviews the broader issues that affect nuclear power in a world energy context. The importance of nuclear power as an energy source is described, as well as the environmental effects of different energy sources. The risks associated with the nuclear industry are discussed with respect to: risks due to radiation exposure, risks to workers in the nuclear industry, and risks to the public due to discharges from nuclear installations. (U.K.).

  7. Perception of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1992-01-01

    Perception of risks by people depends on many factors, either characterizing the individuals, or specific to the risk sources. The risk concept, which confuses the issue, is precised first. Second, the perception phenomenon is presented as an interactive process involving the individual, the hazard, and the social context. Third, dimensions of perception are listed and used to describe the perception of radiation risks. Finally, the relation between perception and attitude is clarified. (author) 50 refs

  8. Modern bank's credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

  9. Cardiovascular risk calculation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James A. Ker

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... smoking and elevated blood sugar levels (diabetes mellitus). These risk ... These are risk charts, e.g. FRS, a non-laboratory-based risk calculation, and ... for hard cardiovascular end-points, such as coronary death, myocardial ...

  10. Business history and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Gourvish

    2003-01-01

    CARR, in association with the Centre for Business History, University of Leeds, held a successful workshop on 'Business History and Risk' on 20 February 2002. The workshop, which was sponsored by the ESRC, brought together business historians, economists, accountants and risk analysts to develop an interdisciplinary discussion on understandings of risk by employers, workers and governments in different historical settings.

  11. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  12. Readings in risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Glickman, Theodore S; Gough, Michael

    1990-01-01

    ... from Resources for the Future are distributed worldwide by The Johns Hopkins University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Readings in risk I Theodore S. Glickman and Michael Gough, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-915707-55-1 (alk. paper) 1. Technology-Risk assessment. 2. Health risk assessment....

  13. Contact Lens Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... There is a risk of eye infection from bacteria in swimming pool water, hot tubs, lakes and the ocean Replace your contact lens storage case every 3 months or as directed by your eye care professional. Other Risks of Contact Lenses Other risks of contact lenses include pink eye ( ...

  14. Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

  15. Business risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosby, C.

    2015-01-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  16. Business risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cosby, C., E-mail: Christine.cosby@brucepower.com [Bruce Power, Tiverton, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  17. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  18. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  19. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  20. Synthetic risks, risk potency, and carcinogen regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscusi, W K; Hakes, J K

    1998-01-01

    This article analyzes a comprehensive sample of over 350 chemicals tested for carcinogenicity to assess the determinants of the probability of regulation. Controlling for differences in the risk potency and noncancer risks, synthetic chemicals have a significantly higher probability of regulation overall: this is due to the greater likelihood of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation. Measures of risk potency increase the probability of regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have a somewhat weaker positive effect on regulation by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and decrease the likelihood of regulation by the FDA. The overall regulatory pattern is one in which the FDA targets synthetic chemicals and chemicals that pose relatively minor cancer risk. The EPA particularly performed more sensibly than many critics have suggested.

  1. Status report on the EPRI fuel cycle accident risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Fullwood, R.R.; Garcia, A.A.; Mendoza, Z.T.; Ritzman, R.L.; Stevens, C.A.

    1979-07-01

    This report summarizes and extends the work reported in five unpublished draft reports: the accidental radiological risk of reprocessing spent fuel, mixed oxide fuel fabrication, the transportation of materials within the fuel cycle, and the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the routine atmospheric radiological risk of mining and milling uranium-bearing ore. Results show that the total risk contribution of the fuel cycle is only about 1% of the accident risk of the power plant and hence, with little error, the accident risk of nuclear electric power is that of the power plant itself. The power plant risk, assuming a very large usage of nuclear power by the year 2005, is only about 0.5% of the radiological risk of natural background. This work aims at a realistic assessment of the process hazards, the effectiveness of confinement and mitigation systems and procedures, and the associated likelihoods and estimated errors. The primary probabilistic estimation tool is fault tree analysis with the release source terms calculated using physical--chemical processes. Doses and health effects are calculated with the CRAC code. No evacuation or mitigation is considered: source terms may be conservative through the assumption of high fuel burnup (40,000 MWd/T) and short cooling (90 to 150 d); HEPA filter efficiencies are derived from experiments

  2. Toward a Responsibility-Catering Prioritarian Ethical Theory of Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, Per; Lindblom, Lars

    2018-03-05

    Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor's list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost-benefit analysis.

  3. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  4. Determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection: population-based observations in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Mwangala, Sheila Monde

    2008-01-01

    Background Perception of risk of HIV infection has been suggested to be an important area of study as it can be an assumed to be an indicator of one’s understanding of susceptibility to HIV infection and a precursor to behavioral change, which could determine future decision making regarding risk taking. Studies that have examined perception of HIV risk and its determinants still remain limited. Zambia is among the worst affected countries by the HIV pandemic in the sub-Sahara African r...

  5. Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boughton

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

  6. Comparative risk assessment: an element for a more rational and ethical approach to radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danesi, P.R.

    2006-01-01

    Peaceful nuclear technologies are still perceived by a large fraction of the general public, the media as well as by some decision makers, as more risky than many other 'conventional' technologies. One of the approaches that can help bringing more rationality and ethics into the picture is to present the risk associated with radiation and nuclear technologies in the frame of correctly conducted comparative risk assessments. However, comparing different risks is not so straightforward because quantifying different risks on a comparable scale requires overcoming both conceptual and practical difficulties. Risk (R) can be expressed as the product of the probability (P) that a given undesired event, the risk, will occur, times the consequences of this event (C), i.e. R = P x C. Although in principle risks could be compared by simply ranking them according to the different values of R, this simplistic approach is not always possible because to correctly compare risks all factors, circumstances and assumptions should be mutually equivalent and quantified and the (often large) uncertainties taken into proper account. In the case of radiation risk, ICRP has assumed as valid the LNT model, (probability coefficient of 5 % per Sievert for attributable death from cancer) and selected the present equivalent dose limit of 1 mSv per year for public exposure. This dose corresponds to 50 lethal cancers by 1 million people exposed and is approximately equivalent (in terms of probability of death) to the risk of bicycling for 600 km, driving for 3200 km, crossing a busy road twice a day for 1 year, smoking 2.5 packets of cigarettes or being X-rayed once for kidney metabolism. However, according to many scientists on the basis of both epidemiological and biological results and considerations, the actual risk is far lower than that predicted by the LNT model. Nevertheless, the policies and myths that were created about half a century ago are still persisting and have lead the general

  7. Offenders' risk-taking attitude inside and outside the prison walls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummerum, Michaela; Hanoch, Yaniv; Rolison, Jonathan J

    2014-10-01

    It has long been assumed that risk taking is closely associated with criminal behavior. One reason for placing criminals behind bars--aside from punishment and protecting the public--is to prevent them from engaging in further risky criminal activities. Limited attention has been paid to whether being inside or outside prison affects offenders' risk-taking behaviors and attitudes. We compared risk-taking behaviors and attitudes in five risk domains (ethical, financial, health/safety, recreational, social) among 75 incarcerated offenders (i.e., offenders who are currently in prison) and 45 ex-offenders (i.e., offenders who have just been released from prison). Ex-offenders reported higher likelihood of engaging in risky behavior, driven largely by a willingness to take more risks in the recreational and ethical domains. Benefits attributed to risk taking as well as risk perception did not differ between incarcerated and ex-offenders, indicating that the opportunity to take risks might underlie behavioral risk intentions. Our results also indicate that risk-taking activities are better predicted by the expected benefits rather than by risk perception, aside from the health/safety domain. These results highlight the importance of studying the person and the environment and examining risk taking in a number of content domains. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  9. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  10. Drinking water standard for tritium-what's the risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, D C; Hoffman, F O

    2011-09-01

    This paper presents an assessment of lifetime risks of cancer incidence associated with the drinking water standard for tritium established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA); this standard is an annual-average maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 740 Bq L(-1). This risk assessment has several defining characteristics: (1) an accounting of uncertainty in all parameters that relate a given concentration of tritium in drinking water to lifetime risk (except the number of days of consumption of drinking water in a year and the number of years of consumption) and an accounting of correlations of uncertain parameters to obtain probability distributions that represent uncertainty in estimated lifetime risks of cancer incidence; (2) inclusion of a radiation effectiveness factor (REF) to represent an increased biological effectiveness of low-energy electrons emitted in decay of tritium compared with high-energy photons; (3) use of recent estimates of risks of cancer incidence from exposure to high-energy photons, including the dependence of risks on an individual's gender and age, in the BEIR VII report; and (4) inclusion of risks of incidence of skin cancer, principally basal cell carcinoma. By assuming ingestion of tritium in drinking water at the MCL over an average life expectancy of 80 y in females and 75 y in males, 95% credibility intervals of lifetime risks of cancer incidence obtained in this assessment are (0.35, 12) × 10(-4) in females and (0.30, 15) × 10(-4) in males. Mean risks, which are considered to provide the best single measure of expected risks, are about 3 × 10(-4) in both genders. In comparison, USEPA's point estimate of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence, assuming a daily consumption of drinking water of 2 L over an average life expectancy of 75.2 y and excluding an REF for tritium and incidence of skin cancer, is 5.6 × 10(-5). Probability distributions of annual equivalent doses to the whole body associated with the drinking

  11. Individual Property Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Finke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

  12. Life without risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hohlneicher, G.; Raschke, E.

    1989-01-01

    Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG) [de

  13. Agile risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Moran, Alan

    2014-01-01

    This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

  14. FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

  15. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....

  16. Risk management in Takaful

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

  17. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinella Cadoni

    Full Text Available It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  18. Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

  19. Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive materials in the U.S.A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.R.; Luna, R.E.; Taylor, J.M.; DuCharme, A.R.

    1976-01-01

    The radiological risk of transporting radioactive materials in the United States was evaluated in terms of expected additional latent cancer fatalities (LCF). Two risks were estimated: that resulting from normal (accident-free) transport and that resulting from transportation accidents involving radioactive shipments. A standard shipments model was devised to represent the radioactive material shipping industry. The calculation of the normal transport risk included estimates of exposures to aircraft passengers and crew, truck drivers, cargo handlers, and population along the transport link. The accident risk calculation incorporated accident probabilities and package release fraction estimates. Dispersible materials were assumed to be aerosolized in severe accidents and the aerosol cloud transported downwind according to a Gaussian diffusion model. An annual normal transport risk of 9600 person-rem, or 1.2 LCF, resulted primarily from radiopharmaceutical shipments. The annual risk due to accidents was 5.6 x 10 -4 LCF, resulting almost entirely from PuO 2 shipments

  20. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    will not occur until a major hurricane hits the region, despite the cost effectiveness of preemptive interventions. It is assumed that after a hurricane the political risks will shift. New policies will be tried and new infrastructure will be built. Many municipalities and agencies are creating "shovel ready" plans in advance to take advantage of post-catastrophe funds. How do the design of these plans reflect perceptions of legal and political risk? Will they do a good job of reducing scientific risk by addressing long term physical threats? In this study we identify specific challenges to climate adaptation in Florida and explore how local and regional water management decision makers balance physical, legal, and political risks in their planning. A primary risk management tool is the strategic use of information. Through targeted interviews with stakeholders we identify key information gatekeepers and their strategies for reducing multiple types of risk.

  1. MASTERING SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borut Jereb

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risks in supply chains represent one of the major business issues today. Since every organizationstrives for success and uninterrupted operations, efficient supply chain risk management is crucial.During supply chain risk research at the Faculty of Logistics in Maribor (Slovenia some keyissues in the field were identified, the major being the lack of instruments which can make riskmanagement in an organization easier and more efficient. Consequently, a model which captures anddescribes risks in an organization and its supply chain was developed. It is in accordance with thegeneral risk management and supply chain security standards, the ISO 31000 and ISO 28000families. It also incorporates recent finding from the risk management field, especially from theviewpoint of segmenting of the public.The model described in this paper focuses on the risks itself by defining them by different keydimensions, so that risk management is simplified and can be undertaken in every supply chain andorganizations within them. Based on our mode and consequent practical research in actualorganizations, a freely accessible risk catalog has been assembled and published online from the risksthat have been identified so far. This catalog can serve as a checklist and a starting point in supplychain risk management in organizations. It also incorporates experts from the field into a community,in order to assemble an ever growing list of possible risks and to provide insight into the model andits value in practice.

  2. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  3. Perception of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Hubert, Ph.

    1996-01-01

    Many factors are involved in the perception of a risk by individuals. Some are individual related (psychology, knowledge, experience), others describe the social environment (culture, ideology), others at end precise the nature of the risk. The word risk has various meanings and is understood differently by the three main categories involved in risk management, that is engineers, administrators and lay public. Several models which describe the perception phenomenon are presented. The dimensions affecting perception are listed. Based on public opinion poll data, a risk taxonomy is proposed, perceived nuclear risks are compared with other risks, and results are given concerning trust in the information diffused and the credibility of those in charge of nuclear activities. (author)

  4. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  5. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

  6. Social amplification of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, J.X.; Emani, S.

    1989-01-01

    The risks associated with radioactive and other hazardous waste disposal may be expected to interact with societal processes to enlarge or attenuate the consequences of risks and risk events. This article summarizes a conceptual framework that depicts the social amplification of risk. Using a data base of 128 hazard events that have occurred largely over the past ten years, the authors examine the role of physical consequences, media coverage, and public perceptions of risk in generating social and economic impacts. The analysis concludes that social amplification processes substantially shape the nature and magnitude of those impacts but also that such social amplification appears to be systematically related to characteristics of the risks and risk events

  7. Limit lines for risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, D.C.; Baybutt, P.

    1982-01-01

    Approaches to the regulation of risk from technological systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical process plants, in which potential accidents may result in a broad range of adverse consequences must take into account several different aspects of risk. These include overall or average risk, accidents posing high relative risks, the rate at which accident probability decreases with increasing accident consequences, and the impact of high frequency, low consequence accidents. A hypothetical complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF), with appropriately chosen parametric form, meets all these requirements. The Farmer limit line, by contrast, places limits on the risks due to individual accident sequences, and cannot adequately account for overall risk. This reduces its usefulness as a regulatory tool. In practice, the CCDF is used in the Canadian nuclear licensing process, while the Farmer limit line approach, supplemented by separate qualitative limits on overall risk, is employed in the United Kingdom

  8. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  9. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  10. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  11. Risk perception of tsunami in the community of Arauco, Chile - a contribution of risk perception to disaster risk management at local level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubisch, M. Sc. Susanne; Edilia Jaque Castillo, Dra.; Braun, JProf. Andreas Ch., ,, Dr.

    2017-04-01

    The research was carried out in the city center of the coastal community of Arauco, Central Chile. The community of Arauco was one of the most affected communities of the tsunami in Chile, the 27th of February 2010. For the data evaluation, the affected inhabitants of the community have been surveyed via standardized questionnaires. Furthermore experts of different fields, amongst others, Disaster Risk Management (DRM), risk education, urban and regional planning, as well as geology have been consulted in form of expert interviews. The results revealed a high risk perception part of the affected community and a weakness of DRM especially at local level, which opens a gap between the evaluation and treatment of risk by experts and risk perception of the affected community. The risk perception of the affected community, here, is predominantly determined by ecological vulnerability, expressed in direct and indirect experience of a tsunami and by institutional vulnerability, expressed among others by a weakness of DRM at local level and a mistrust in responsible institutions for DRM. Due to the institutional vulnerability and the mistrust in responsible institutions we recommend a Community Based Approach (CBA) to strengthen DRM at local level and to take advantage of the high risk perception and knowledge of the affected community. Involving the community in DRM, we assume to close the gap between risk evaluation of experts and risk perception of the inhabitants and to come up with the unique necessities and conditions at local level. Especially in centralized countries, DRM is less effective, because at the one hand, decisions are made distant from the affected communities, so that measures often do not come up with the unique conditions and necessities at local level, and on the other hand measures often do not find acceptance by the affected community. Furthermore centralized DRM is often not effective and quick in response in case of emergency. Another obstacle

  12. Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

    2011-01-01

    Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

  13. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  14. Risk perception and risk communication: lessons learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baillif, L.; Sackur, J.

    1998-01-01

    Industry can master risks but it cannot master the representations people have of these risks. This is why distortions may occur, as the public perceives risks where they are not, or in a totally deformed way. To deal with this type of situation which is dangerous in the long run, both for society and industry, it is necessary to study in detail where and how the difference between real risks and perceived risks is introduced. It then becomes possible to determine what means of action are available to manage the representations and the perceptions of risks. We shall mention two rather different examples of type of direct contact with the industrial reality; in France, we have determined policy of visits of nuclear sites (more than 10 000 people visit Cogema- la Hague site yearly), mainly addressed to school children and people living in the vicinity of the site. During these visits there is of course no question of explaining the detailed operation of the facility or the risks it generates. The purpose is to make the representation of the nuclear industry just as familiar as the representation of another large-scale technology tool: trains, dams,. In a different manner, missions are organised by Cogema - B.N.F.L.- O.R.C. (Overseas reprocessing Committee) to de dramatize the transport of high level vitrified wastes from Europe to Japan. these missions travel through those countries the ship come close to. Here, again, although the target is more the relays of opinion, the effective presence of specialized transport ship is a crucial element in putting a halt to phantasmic representations, as they are born from the remoteness of the object. (N.C.)

  15. Stochastic Security and Risk-Constrained Scheduling for an Autonomous Microgrid with Demand Response and Renewable Energy Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahedipour-Dahraie, Mostafa; Rashidizadeh-Kermani, Homa; Najafi, Hamid Reza

    2017-01-01

    is to determine the optimal scheduling with considering risk aversion and system frequency security to maximise the expected profit of operator. To deal with various uncertainties, a riskconstrained two-stage stochastic programming model is proposed where the risk aversion of MG operator is modelled using...... of customers can be effectively applied to balance the demand and supply in electricity networks. This study presents a novel stochastic model from a microgrid (MG) operator perspective for energy and reserve scheduling considering risk management strategy. It is assumed that the MG operator can procure energy...... conditional value at risk method. Extensive numerical results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework....

  16. Reduced risk estimations after remediation of lead (Pb) in drinking water at two US school districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllidou, Simoni; Le, Trung; Gallagher, Daniel; Edwards, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The risk of students to develop elevated blood lead from drinking water consumption at schools was assessed, which is a different approach from predictions of geometric mean blood lead levels. Measured water lead levels (WLLs) from 63 elementary schools in Seattle and 601 elementary schools in Los Angeles were acquired before and after voluntary remediation of water lead contamination problems. Combined exposures to measured school WLLs (first-draw and flushed, 50% of water consumption) and home WLLs (50% of water consumption) were used as inputs to the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model for each school. In Seattle an average 11.2% of students were predicted to exceed a blood lead threshold of 5 μg/dL across 63 schools pre-remediation, but predicted risks at individual schools varied (7% risk of exceedance at a "low exposure school", 11% risk at a "typical exposure school", and 31% risk at a "high exposure school"). Addition of water filters and removal of lead plumbing lowered school WLL inputs to the model, and reduced the predicted risk output to 4.8% on average for Seattle elementary students across all 63 schools. The remnant post-remediation risk was attributable to other assumed background lead sources in the model (air, soil, dust, diet and home WLLs), with school WLLs practically eliminated as a health threat. Los Angeles schools instead instituted a flushing program which was assumed to eliminate first-draw WLLs as inputs to the model. With assumed benefits of remedial flushing, the predicted average risk of students to exceed a BLL threshold of 5 μg/dL dropped from 8.6% to 6.0% across 601 schools. In an era with increasingly stringent public health goals (e.g., reduction of blood lead safety threshold from 10 to 5 μg/dL), quantifiable health benefits to students were predicted after water lead remediation at two large US school systems. © 2013.

  17. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  18. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  19. [Use of hypertext as information and training tools in the prevention of occupational risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G

    1998-01-01

    Modern medical education is based on a variety of teaching techniques, by means of which individuals learn most effectively. The availability of the new technologies together with the diffusion of personal computers is favouring the spreading of the use of hypertexts through the World Wide Web. This contribution describes 2 hypertexts ("Human Activities and Health Risk"; "Occupation, Risk and Disease. A Problem-Oriented Hypertext-Tool to Learn Occupational Medicine") and the prototype "Virtual Hospital". Assuming that prevention of health risks is based upon their knowledge, they have been created with the aim of providing users with problem-oriented tools, whose retorical aspects (content, information organization, user interface) are analysed. The "Human Activities and Health Risk" deals with the description of working activities and allows user to recognize health risks. The "Occupation, Risk and Disease. A Problem-Oriented Hypertext-Tool to Learn Occupational Medicine" embodies a case report containing the clustered information about the patient and the library including educational material (risk factors, symptoms and signs, organ system diseases, jobs, occupational risk factors, environment related diseases. The "Virtual Hospital" has been conceived assuming that an appropriate information can change workers' behaviour in hospital, where health risks can be often underevaluated. It consists of a variety of structured and unstructured information, which can be browsed by users, allowing the discovery of links and providing the awareness of the semantic relationship between related information elements (including environment, instruments, drugs, job analysis, situations at risk for health, preventive means). The "Virtual Hospital" aims making the understanding of the working situations at risk easier and more interesting, stimulating the awareness of the relationship between jobs and risks.

  20. THE POLITICS OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA TO DEAL WITH CREDITING RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vechiu Camelia

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The market economy refers to the implicit presence of a banking system which could ensure the mobilization of all the monetary resources of the respective economy and their temporary orientation towards the development of efficient economic activities. A significant aspect of the bank performance refers to the measurement of risks with the aim to diminish them. If the bank management is poor and the risks are not taken into consideration, it will be possible that the earning capacity to be reduced and to lead even to the bankruptcy. Due to the fact that the banks are lending, they assume risks which are determined by the doubtful debtor (it appears the insolvency, or by the general economic evolution (which involves interest and exchange rate risks, or by the financial structure of the bank (financing long-term credits from short or sight deposits. The bank risk can be determined by external or internal factors of the bank due to the competitive environment. In the professional literature, the methodology used for the risk management involves several steps: the risk identification and analysis; the risk elimination and control; the risk assessment and assuming; the risk financing by debiting the general or specific reserves or by transfer which means the insurance of the bank company. For those banks operating in Romania, the risks are even more evident due to the hostile environment in which they operate, but also due to the specificity of the Romanian banking system which is still evolving and adapting to the competitive stringencies of the market economy. This paper is trying to follow the risk involvement towards the bank activity taking into account its importance and role in order to ensure the increase of the bank earning capacity.

  1. In-patient suicide: selection of people at risk, failure of protection and the possibility of causation

    OpenAIRE

    Large, Matthew Michael; Chung, Daniel Thomas; Davidson, Michael; Weiser, Mark; Ryan, Christopher James

    2017-01-01

    Background Being a current psychiatric in-patient is one of the strongest statistical risk factors for suicide. It is usually assumed that this strong association is not causal but is a result of the combination of the selection of high-risk patients for admission and the imperfect protection from suicide afforded by psychiatric wards. Logically, a third factor, which is causal, might play a role in the association. It has recently been suggested that adverse experiences in psychiatric units ...

  2. Inundation risk for embanked rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. G. Strupczewski

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA concentrates on probability distribution of peak flows of flood hydrographs. However, examination of floods that haunted and devastated the large parts of Poland lead us to revision of the views on the assessment of flood risk of Polish rivers. It turned out that flooding is caused not only by the overflow of the levee crest but also due to the prolonged exposure to high water on levees structure causing dangerous leaks and breaches that threaten their total destruction. This is because the levees are weakened by long-lasting water pressure and as a matter of fact their damage usually occurs after the culmination has passed the affected location. The probability of inundation is the total of probabilities of exceeding embankment crest by flood peak and the probability of washout of levees. Therefore, in addition to the maximum flow one should also consider the duration of high waters in a river channel. In the paper the new two-component model of flood dynamics: "Duration of high waters–Discharge Threshold–Probability of non-exceedance" (DqF, with the methodology of its parameter estimation was proposed as a completion to the classical FFA methods. Such a model can estimate the duration of stages (flows of an assumed magnitude with a given probability of exceedance. The model combined with the technical evaluation of the probability of levee breaches due to the duration (d of flow above alarm stage gives the annual probability of inundation caused by the embankment breaking. The results of theoretical investigation were illustrated by a practical example of the model implementation to the series of daily flow of the Vistula River at Szczucin. Regardless of promising results, the method of risk assessment due to prolonged exposure of levees to high water is still in its infancy despite its great cognitive potential and practical importance. Therefore, we would like to point out the need for and usefulness of

  3. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  4. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2004-05-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

  5. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  6. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  7. A comparative review of radiation-induced cancer risk models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Hee; Kim, Ju Youl [FNC Technology Co., Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seok Jung [Risk and Environmental Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies. This review can be used as a basis for developing a Korean cancer risk model in the future.

  8. Risk acceptance in multiple sclerosis patients on natalizumab treatment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Tur

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the ability of natalizumab (NTZ-treated patients to assume treatment-associated risks and the factors involved in such risk acceptance. METHODS: From a total of 185 patients, 114 patients on NTZ as of July 2011 carried out a comprehensive survey. We obtained disease severity perception scores, personality traits' scores, and risk-acceptance scores (RAS so that higher RAS indicated higher risk acceptance. We recorded JC virus status (JCV+/-, prior immunosuppression, NTZ treatment duration, and clinical characteristics. NTZ patients were split into subgroups (A-E, depending on their individual PML risk. Some 22 MS patients on first-line drugs (DMD acted as controls. RESULTS: No differences between treatment groups were observed in disease severity perception and personality traits. RAS were higher in NTZ than in DMD patients (p<0.01. Perception of the own disease as a more severe condition tended to predict higher RAS (p=0.07. Higher neuroticism scores predicted higher RAS in the NTZ group as a whole (p=0.04, and in high PML-risk subgroups (A-B (p=0.02. In low PML-risk subgroups (C-E, higher RAS were associated with a JCV+ status (p=0.01. Neither disability scores nor pre-treatment relapse rate predicted RAS in either group. CONCLUSIONS: Risk acceptance is a multifactorial phenomenon, which might be partly explained by an adaptive process, in light of the higher risk acceptance amongst NTZ-treated patients and, especially, amongst those who are JCV seropositive but still have low PML risk, but which seems also intimately related to personality traits.

  9. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  10. Optimizing risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindred, G.W.

    2000-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

  11. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, Herbert.

    1978-03-01

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  12. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  13. Risk-informed regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

  14. Managing risk at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

    1994-01-01

    Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas

  15. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  16. Development of component failure data for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fray, R.R.; Moulia, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the quantification and utilization of seismic failure data used in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Risk Study. A single variable representation of earthquake severity that uses peak horizontal ground acceleration to characterize earthquake severity was employed. The use of a multiple variable representation would allow direct consideration of vertical accelerations and the spectral nature of earthquakes but would have added such complexity that the study would not have been feasible. Vertical accelerations and spectral nature were indirectly considered because component failure data were derived from design analyses, qualification tests and engineering judgment that did include such considerations. Two types of functions were used to describe component failure probabilities. Ramp functions were used for components, such as piping and structures, qualified by stress analysis. 'Anchor points' for ramp functions were selected by assuming a zero probability of failure at code allowable stress levels and unity probability of failure at ultimate stress levels. The accelerations corresponding to allowable and ultimate stress levels were determined by conservatively assuming a linear relationship between seismic stress and ground acceleration. Step functions were used for components, such as mechanical and electrical equipment, qualified by testing. Anchor points for step functions were selected by assuming a unity probability of failure above the qualification acceleration. (orig./HP)

  17. Is Risk Taking Used as a Cue in Mate Choice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Wilke

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available More frequent risk taking among young men than women has been explained as a sexually selected trait, perhaps advertising male quality. We investigated this hypothesis in three studies. (1 Young men and women rated how attractive they would find it if a potential partner took various specific risks. A domain-specific risk inventory allowed us to distinguish whether risk taking is attractive generally or only in certain domains. Both sexes reported social and recreational risk taking as attractive (the latter not always significantly so, but other domains of risk taking as unattractive (ethics, gambling, and health or neutral (investment. The sexes differed markedly little. Parallel studies in Germany and the United States yielded very similar results. (2 We asked subjects to predict how attractive the other sex would find it if the subject performed each risky behavior. Both sexes were rather accurate (which could be merely because they assume that the other sex feels as they do and sex differences in attractive risk taking are not explicable by sex differences either in attraction or in beliefs about what others find attractive. However, our data could explain why unattractive risks are more often taken by men than women (men slightly underestimated the degree of unattractiveness of such risks, whereas U.S. women overestimated it, perhaps because they themselves found such risk taking more unattractive than did U.S. men. (3 Both members of 25 couples reported their likelihood of engaging in specific risky behaviors, their perception of these risks, and how attractive they would have found these behaviors in their partner. One hypothesis was that, for instance, a woman afraid of heights would be particularly impressed by a man oblivious to such risks. Instead we found positive assortment for risk taking, which might be explained by a greater likelihood of encountering people with similar risk attitudes (e.g. members of the same clubs or a

  18. Seismic risk perception test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

  19. Effective Risk Management in Innovative Projects: A Case Study of the Construction of Energy-efficient, Sustainable Building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krechowicz, Maria

    2017-10-01

    Many construction projects fail to meet deadlines or they exceed the assumed budget. This scenario is particularly common in the case of innovative projects, in which too late identification of a high risk of delays and exceeding the assumed costs makes a potentially profitable project untenable. A high risk level, far exceeding the level of risk in standard non-innovative projects, is a characteristic feature of the realization phase of innovative projects. This is associated not only with greater complexity of the design and construction phases, but also with the problems with application of new technologies and prototype solutions, lack of qualified personnel with suitable expertise in specialized areas, and with the ability to properly identify the gaps between available and required knowledge and skills. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in innovative projects on the example of the realization phase of an innovative, energy-efficient and sustainable building of the Laboratory of Intelligent Building in Cracow - DLJM Lab, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. In this paper, a new approach to risk management process for innovative construction projects is proposed. Risk management process was divided into five stages: gathering information, identification of the important unwanted events, first risk assessment, development and choice of risk reaction strategies, assessment of the residual risk after introducing risk reactions. 18 unwanted events in an innovative construction project were identified. The first risk assessment was carried out using two-parametric risk matrix, in which the probability of unwanted event occurrence and its consequences were analysed. Three levels of risks were defined: tolerable, controlled and uncontrolled. Risk reactions to each defined unwanted event were developed. The following risk reaction types were considered: risk retention, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk

  20. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  1. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  2. Nuclear safety research - risk and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossin, A.D.

    1982-01-01

    The nuclear power industry deals in many kinds of risks, complicated by political stress and communication problems. Power plant design must prepare for the unexpected attack, physical as well as psychological, but a zero-defects technology is not possible. The public has not been made sufficiently aware of the risk the US takes if there is not enough energy because nuclear power has been curtailed. Energy shortages could drive industry and jobs abroad, force the public to turn to government for a solution, drive the country to energy allocation, and cause a nuclear war. Policies that prevent closing the nuclear fuel cycle are ineffective in preventing proliferation and counterproductive to national needs

  3. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  4. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  7. Trivial risks and the new radiation protection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wikman, Per

    2004-01-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection proposes that doses below a certain level should be excluded from the system of protection, without regard to the number of people exposed. As the Commission assumes that there is a risk of harm even from very low doses, the proposal also disregards these very low risks. The arguments for this proposal are examined here. It is argued that the fact that risks are small compared to natural sources cannot be used as justification for accepting them. The principle 'if the risk of harm to the health of the most exposed individual is trivial, then the total risk is trivial-irrespective of how many people are exposed' is analysed. It is found to equivocate on the meaning of the word trivial and to ignore the total risk. It is also argued that the new proposal is not justified by a change from a utilitarian ethic to an ethic based on individual rights. Finally, it is suggested that small doses should only be disregarded if the expected value of harm is small, and the exclusion level should thus depend on the number of people exposed

  8. The risk of pedestrian collisions with peripheral visual field loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peli, Eli; Apfelbaum, Henry; Berson, Eliot L; Goldstein, Robert B

    2016-12-01

    Patients with peripheral field loss complain of colliding with other pedestrians in open-space environments such as shopping malls. Field expansion devices (e.g., prisms) can create artificial peripheral islands of vision. We investigated the visual angle at which these islands can be most effective for avoiding pedestrian collisions, by modeling the collision risk density as a function of bearing angle of pedestrians relative to the patient. Pedestrians at all possible locations were assumed to be moving in all directions with equal probability within a reasonable range of walking speeds. The risk density was found to be highly anisotropic. It peaked at ≈45° eccentricity. Increasing pedestrian speed range shifted the risk to higher eccentricities. The risk density is independent of time to collision. The model results were compared to the binocular residual peripheral island locations of 42 patients with forms of retinitis pigmentosa. The natural residual island prevalence also peaked nasally at about 45° but temporally at about 75°. This asymmetry resulted in a complementary coverage of the binocular field of view. Natural residual binocular island eccentricities seem well matched to the collision-risk density function, optimizing detection of other walking pedestrians (nasally) and of faster hazards (temporally). Field expansion prism devices will be most effective if they can create artificial peripheral islands at about 45° eccentricities. The collision risk and residual island findings raise interesting questions about normal visual development.

  9. Trivial risks and the new radiation protection system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wikman, Per [Philosophy Unit, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-03-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection proposes that doses below a certain level should be excluded from the system of protection, without regard to the number of people exposed. As the Commission assumes that there is a risk of harm even from very low doses, the proposal also disregards these very low risks. The arguments for this proposal are examined here. It is argued that the fact that risks are small compared to natural sources cannot be used as justification for accepting them. The principle 'if the risk of harm to the health of the most exposed individual is trivial, then the total risk is trivial-irrespective of how many people are exposed' is analysed. It is found to equivocate on the meaning of the word trivial and to ignore the total risk. It is also argued that the new proposal is not justified by a change from a utilitarian ethic to an ethic based on individual rights. Finally, it is suggested that small doses should only be disregarded if the expected value of harm is small, and the exclusion level should thus depend on the number of people exposed.

  10. Credit risk in emerging markets Peruvian listed company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Burneo Farfan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to introduce the importance of the banking credit risk, the main elements that conform it and the main alternatives that are offered to access to a loan as well as a description of its measurement and management in the sector. There will be a general explanation of credit risk and the main parties involved in it. As the topic is developed it is going to be analyzed the lending process carried out by the banks as well as the quantitative and qualitative elements taken into account when taking a credit decision (The 5C’s of credit, credit scoring and models for quantification of losses for instance. Another thing to considerate is that Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Also, the investors have the access for the information of a client and they are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation and the credit risk is a useful tool for the finance management. The Enterprise risk management in Peru changed in 2015 because the local regulator is in process to review the norm, including some aspects of corporate governance; these changes are not included in this research.

  11. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.

  12. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  13. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  14. [Risk factors of schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  15. Entrepreneurs Facing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke

    to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses......Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...

  16. On risks and acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1981-01-01

    A very attractive notion is that it should be possible not only to determine how much risk is associated with any particular activity, but also to determine if that risk is acceptable. Stated boldly this seems an entirely unobjectionable and indeed a very acceptable notion. There is, however, underlying this idea, a mistaken view of risk which we might refer to as the ''phlogiston'' theory of risk. In this paper, presented at the SRP meeting on Ethical and Legal Aspects of Radiological Protection, the phlogiston theory of risk is described; secondly, it will be argued that it is too simple a theory to be realistic or useful; and thirdly, the management of risk will be placed in a wider decision framework. Acceptability, it will be argued is highly dependent on context, and it is not possible, therefore, to lay down generally applicable notions of acceptability. (author)

  17. The risk game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    In the context of health, safety, and environmental decisions, the concept of risk involves value judgments that reflect much more than just the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an event. This article conceptualizes the act of defining and assessing risk as a game, in which the rules must be socially negotiated within the context of a specific problem. This contextualist view of risk provides insight into why technical approaches to risk management often fail with problems such as those involving radiation and chemicals, where scientific experts and the public disagree on the nature of the risks. It also highlights the need for allowing the interested and affected parties to define and play the game, thus emphasizing the importance of institutional, procedural, and societal processes in risk-management decisions

  18. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  19. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liabili...

  20. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de